Reducing catheter-related thrombosis using a risk reduction tool centered on catheter to vessel ratio.

Science.gov (United States)

Spencer, Timothy R; Mahoney, Keegan J

2017-11-01

In vascular access practices, the internal vessel size is considered important, and a catheter to vessel ratio (CVR) is recommended to assist clinicians in selecting the most appropriate-sized device for the vessel. In 2016, new practice recommendations stated that the CVR can increase from 33 to 45% of the vessels diameter. There has been evidence on larger diameter catheters and increased thrombosis risk in recent literature, while insufficient information established on what relationship to vessel size is appropriate for any intra-vascular device. Earlier references to clinical standards and guidelines did not clearly address vessel size in relation to the area consumed or external catheter diameter. The aim of this manuscript is to present catheter-related thrombosis evidence and develop a standardized process of ultrasound-guided vessel assessment, integrating CVR, Virchow's triad phenomenon and vessel health and preservation strategies, empowering an evidence-based approach to device placement. Through review, calculation and assessment on the areas of the 33 and 45% rule, a preliminary clinical tool was developed to assist clinicians make cognizant decisions when placing intravascular devices relating to target vessel size, focusing on potential reduction in catheter-related thrombosis. Increasing the understanding and utilization of CVRs will lead to a safer, more consistent approach to device placement, with potential thrombosis reduction strategies. The future of evidence-based data relies on the clinician to capture accurate vessel measurements and device-related outcomes. This will lead to a more dependable data pool, driving the relationship of catheter-related thrombosis and vascular assessment.

Low-cost risk reduction strategy for small workplaces: how can we spread good practices?

Science.gov (United States)

Kogi, K

2006-01-01

Recent advances in health risk reduction approaches are examined based on inter-country networking experiences. A noteworthy progress is the wider application of low-cost improvements to risk reduction particularly in small enterprises and agriculture in both industrially developing and developed countries. This is helped by the readiness of managers and workers to implement these improvements despite many constraints. Typical improvements include mobile racks, simple workstation changes, screening hazards, better welfare facilities and teamwork arrangements. In view of the complex circumstances of work-related health risks, it is important to know whether a low-cost strategy can advance risk reduction practices effectively and what support measures are necessary. It is confirmed that the strategy can overcome related constraints through its advantages. Main advantages lie in (a) the facilitation of improved practices in multiple technical areas, (b) the strengthening of realistic stepwise risk reduction, and (c) the enhanced multiplier effects through training of local trainers. Action-oriented risk assessment tools, such as action checklists and low-cost improvement guides, can encourage risk-reducing measures adjusted to each local situation. It is suggested to spread the low-cost risk reduction strategy for improving small workplaces in diversified settings with the support of these locally tailored tools.

Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 4

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

1994-02-01

This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km{sup 2} Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included.

Optimising risk reduction: An expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jiawei; Pollard, Simon; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Davies, Gareth

2009-01-01

In practice, risk and uncertainty are essentially unavoidable in many regulation processes. Regulators frequently face a risk-benefit trade-off since zero risk is neither practicable nor affordable. Although it is accepted that cost-benefit analysis is important in many scenarios of risk management, what role it should play in a decision process is still controversial. One criticism of cost-benefit analysis is that decision makers should consider marginal benefits and costs, not present ones, in their decision making. In this paper, we investigate the problem of regulatory decision making under risk by applying expected utility theory and present a new approach of cost-benefit analysis. Directly taking into consideration the reduction of the risks, this approach achieves marginal cost-benefit analysis. By applying this approach, the optimal regulatory decision that maximizes the marginal benefit of risk reduction can be considered. This provides a transparent and reasonable criterion for stakeholders involved in the regulatory activity. An example of evaluating seismic retrofitting alternatives is provided to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

Cancer risk in aluminum reduction plant workers (Canada)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spinelli, J.J.; Demers, P.A.; Le, N.D.; Friesen, M.D.; Lorenzi, M.F.; Fang, R.; Gallagher, R.P. [British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

2006-09-15

A 14-year update to a previously published historical cohort study of aluminum reduction plant workers was conducted. All men with three or more years at an aluminum reduction plant in British Columbia (BC), Canada between the years 1954 and 1997 were included; a total of 6,423 workers. A total of 662 men were diagnosed with cancer, representing a 400% increase from the original study. Standardized mortality and incidence ratios were used to compare the cancer mortality and incidence of the cohort to that of the BC population. Poisson regression was used to examine risk by cumulative exposure to coal tar pitch volatiles (CTPV) measured as benzene soluble materials (BSM) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). The risk for bladder cancer was related to cumulative exposure to CTPV measured as BSM and BaP (p trends < 0.001), and the risk for stomach cancer was related to exposure measured by BaP (p trend BaP < 0.05). The risks for lung cancer (p trend < 0.001), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (p trend < 0.001), and kidney cancer (p trend < 0.01) also increased with increasing exposure, although the overall rates were similar to that of the general population. Analysis of the joint effect of smoking and CTPV exposure on cancer showed the observed dose-response relationships to be independent of smoking.

Reflections from the interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Sargeant, S.

2012-04-01

Scientific understanding of earthquakes and their attendant hazards is vital for the development of effective earthquake risk reduction strategies. Within the global disaster reduction policy framework (the Hyogo Framework for Action, overseen by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), the anticipated role of science and scientists is clear, with respect to risk assessment, loss estimation, space-based observation, early warning and forecasting. The importance of information sharing and cooperation, cross-disciplinary networks and developing technical and institutional capacity for effective disaster management is also highlighted. In practice, the degree to which seismological information is successfully delivered to and applied by individuals, groups or organisations working to manage or reduce the risk from earthquakes is variable. The challenge for scientists is to provide fit-for-purpose information that can be integrated simply into decision-making and risk reduction activities at all levels of governance and at different geographic scales, often by a non-technical audience (i.e. people without any seismological/earthquake engineering training). The interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction (defined here in terms of both the relationship between the science and its application, and the scientist and other risk stakeholders) is complex. This complexity is a function of a range issues that arise relating to communication, multidisciplinary working, politics, organisational practices, inter-organisational collaboration, working practices, sectoral cultures, individual and organisational values, worldviews and expectations. These factors can present significant obstacles to scientific information being incorporated into the decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to present some personal reflections on the nature of the interface between the worlds of seismological research and risk reduction, and the

Outage risk reduction at Diablo Canyon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burnett, Tobias W.T.; Eugene Newman, C.

2004-01-01

A formal risk reduction program was conducted at the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Generating plant as part of EPRI's Outage Risk Assessment and Management Program. The program began with a probabilistic and deterministic assessment of the frequency of core coolant boiling and core uncovery during shutdown operations. This step identified important contributors to risk, periods of high vulnerability, and potential mechanisms for reducing risk. Next, recovery strategies were evaluated and procedures, training, and outage schedules modified. Twelve risk reduction enhancements were developed and implemented. These enhancements and their impact are described in this paper. These enhancements reduced the calculated risk of core uncovery by about a factor of four for a refueling outage without lengthening the outage schedule; increased the outage efficiency, contributing to completing 11 days ahead of schedule; and helped to earn the highest achievable SALP rating from the NRC. (author)

Adaptation of an HIV behavioural disinhibition risk reduction ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Adaptation of an HIV behavioural disinhibition risk reduction intervention for ... disinhibition risk reduction interventions for recently circumcised men for use in clinic ... medicine HIV prevention technologies into the male circumcision contexts.

The social value of mortality risk reduction: VSL versus the social welfare function approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, Matthew D; Hammitt, James K; Treich, Nicolas

2014-05-01

We examine how different welfarist frameworks evaluate the social value of mortality risk reduction. These frameworks include classical, distributively unweighted cost-benefit analysis--i.e., the "value per statistical life" (VSL) approach-and various social welfare functions (SWFs). The SWFs are either utilitarian or prioritarian, applied to policy choice under risk in either an "ex post" or "ex ante" manner. We examine the conditions on individual utility and on the SWF under which these frameworks display sensitivity to wealth and to baseline risk. Moreover, we discuss whether these frameworks satisfy related properties that have received some attention in the literature, namely equal value of risk reduction, preference for risk equity, and catastrophe aversion. We show that the particular manner in which VSL ranks risk-reduction measures is not necessarily shared by other welfarist frameworks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Breast Cancer Incidence and Risk Reduction in the Hispanic Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Power, Eric J; Chin, Megan L; Haq, Mohamed M

2018-02-26

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer amongst women worldwide and is the fifth leading cause of cancer-related mortality overall. It is also the foremost reason for cancer-related mortality in Hispanic females in the United States (US). Although the current incidence of breast cancer is significantly lower in Hispanics compared to that of non-Hispanic Whites (NHW) and Blacks, (91.9, 128.1, and 124.3 per 100,000, respectively, annually), this may increase if Hispanics develop similar lifestyle behaviors to other American women, in categories such as weight management, age at first birth, number of children, and breastfeeding habits. Stage-for-stage mortality for Hispanics is similar to NHWs, but the mortality rate is not declining as rapidly in this ethnic group. Hispanic women share many of the same risk factors for developing breast cancer as NHWs and Blacks. This suggests that many of the risk reduction strategies used in other racial populations may also benefit this group. Providing education about breast cancer and implementing risk reduction strategies in culturally-aware environments could help keep incidence low and reduce cancer-related mortality. Since Hispanics are the largest minority group in the US, this could have a significant impact on the incidence and mortality nationally.

The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Smolka, A. J.

2015-12-01

Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

Improvement in spine bone density and reduction in risk of vertebral fractures during treatment with antiresorptive drugs.

Science.gov (United States)

Cummings, Steven R; Karpf, David B; Harris, Fran; Genant, Harry K; Ensrud, Kristine; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Black, Dennis M

2002-03-01

To estimate how much the improvement in bone mass accounts for the reduction in risk of vertebral fracture that has been observed in randomized trials of antiresorptive treatments for osteoporosis. After a systematic search, we conducted a meta-analysis of 12 trials to describe the relation between improvement in spine bone mineral density and reduction in risk of vertebral fracture in postmenopausal women. We also used logistic models to estimate the proportion of the reduction in risk of vertebral fracture observed with alendronate in the Fracture Intervention Trial that was due to improvement in bone mineral density. Across the 12 trials, a 1% improvement in spine bone mineral density was associated with a 0.03 decrease (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02 to 0.05) in the relative risk (RR) of vertebral fracture. The reductions in risk were greater than predicted from improvement in bone mineral density; for example, the model estimated that treatments predicted to reduce fracture risk by 20% (RR = 0.80), based on improvement in bone mineral density, actually reduce the risk of fracture by about 45% (RR = 0.55). In the Fracture Intervention Trial, improvement in spine bone mineral density explained 16% (95% CI: 11% to 27%) of the reduction in the risk of vertebral fracture with alendronate. Improvement in spine bone mineral density during treatment with antiresorptive drugs accounts for a predictable but small part of the observed reduction in the risk of vertebral fracture.

Insurance, Public Assistance, and Household Flood Risk Reduction: A Comparative Study of Austria, England, and Romania.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanger, Susanne; Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne; Surminski, Swenja; Nenciu-Posner, Cristina; Lorant, Anna; Ionescu, Radu; Patt, Anthony

2018-04-01

In light of increasing losses from floods, many researchers and policymakers are looking for ways to encourage flood risk reduction among communities, business, and households. In this study, we investigate risk-reduction behavior at the household level in three European Union Member States with fundamentally different insurance and compensation schemes. We try to understand if and how insurance and public assistance influence private risk-reduction behavior. Data were collected using a telephone survey (n = 1,849) of household decisionmakers in flood-prone areas. We show that insurance overall is positively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. Warranties, premium discounts, and information provision with respect to risk reduction may be an explanation for this positive relationship in the case of structural measures. Public incentives for risk-reduction measures by means of financial and in-kind support, and particularly through the provision of information, are also associated with enhancing risk reduction. In this study, public compensation is not negatively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. This does not disprove such a relationship, but the negative effect may be mitigated by factors related to respondents' capacity to implement measures or social norms that were not included in the analysis. The data suggest that large-scale flood protection infrastructure creates a sense of security that is associated with a lower level of preparedness. Across the board there is ample room to improve both public and private policies to provide effective incentives for household-level risk reduction. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Investigating obesity risk-reduction behaviours and psychosocial factors in Chinese Americans.

Science.gov (United States)

Liou, Doreen; Bauer, Kathleen; Bai, Yeon

2014-11-01

The purpose of this research was to examine the attitudes, beliefs and behaviours related to obesity risk reduction in Chinese Americans. A questionnaire was administered to a convenience sample of 300 US-born and foreign-born Chinese Americans residing in the New York metropolitan area, ranging from 18 to 40 years of age. Obesity risk reduction behaviours and psychosocial variables derived from the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Health Belief Model were measured. Acculturation was assessed using a modified Suinn-Lew Asian Self-Identity Acculturation Scale. Frequency distributions were delineated and stepwise regression analyses were analysed for different acculturation groups. 65% of the respondents were female and the mean age of the sample was 26 years. Respondents indicated the most commonly practised behaviour to be eating home-cooked meals instead of restaurant-prepared foods. Perceived barriers to adopting obesity risk-reduction behaviours included convenience of consuming fast foods, cost, lack of time to prepare home-cooked meals, and the physical environment of unhealthy foods. In predicting intention to perform obesity risk-reduction behaviours, attitude was significant for 'western-identified' individuals. In 'Asian-identified' individuals, perceived behavioural control, self-efficacy and perceived benefits were salient. Nutrition educators working with Chinese Americans need to address self-efficacy in preparing plant-based, home-cooked meals and making healthy choices at fast-food restaurants with portion control. Concrete and perceived barriers such as lack of time and convenience need to be addressed in nutrition education interventions. Educators need to identify new channels and media outlets to disseminate practical, easy-to-implement behaviours for obesity risk reduction that are socially acceptable. © Royal Society for Public Health 2013.

Risk reduction by filtered venting in PWR large dry-containments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gazzillo, F.; Kastenberg, W.E.

1984-01-01

The potential risk reduction associated with a Filtered-Vented Containment System is evaluated. A low-volume venting strategy has been considered and data referring to the Zion power plant, along with the results of the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study, have been used. An estimate of the reduction factor is first made for a single core melt accident sequence whose containment failure mode is late overpressure. The result, interpreted as a reduction factor applicable to the release category associated with containment late overpressure is then used for the estimation of the overall risk reduction factor. In particular, the case of internal and external risk for the Zion power plant are considered. Because the contribution from seismic events dominates the overall risk, the importance of different assumptions for seismic fragility is also assessed. Finally an uncertainty analysis of the risk reduction factor for a single accident sequence is performed. An estimate is also obtained on the level of confidence with which certain required values of risk reduction can be achieved. (orig.)

Theoretical framework to study exercise motivation for breast cancer risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Maureen E

2008-01-01

To identify an appropriate theoretical framework to study exercise motivation for breast cancer risk reduction among high-risk women. An extensive review of the literature was conducted to gather relevant information pertaining to the Health Promotion Model, self-determination theory, social cognitive theory, Health Belief Model, Transtheoretical Model, theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. An iterative approach was used to summarize the literature related to exercise motivation within each theoretical framework. Protection motivation theory could be used to examine the effects of perceived risk and self-efficacy in motivating women to exercise to facilitate health-related behavioral change. Evidence-based research within a chosen theoretical model can aid practitioners when making practical recommendations to reduce breast cancer risk.

Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

2000-01-01

Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

POLLUTION PREVENTION RESEARCH ONGOING - EPA'S RISK REDUCTION ENGINEERING LABORATORY

Science.gov (United States)

The mission of the Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory is to advance the understanding, development and application of engineering solutions for the prevention or reduction of risks from environmental contamination. This mission is accomplished through basic and applied researc...

US-Soviet cooperation in countering nuclear terrorism: the role of risk reduction centers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nunn, S.; Warner, J.W.

1987-01-01

Preventing nuclear terrorism should be high on the agenda of US-Soviet relations. Indeed, the specter of nuclear terrorism, more than any other factor originally prompted and has subsequently sustained the author's deep interest in US-Soviet agreements on establishment of US-Soviet Nuclear Risk Reduction Centers and other important risk-reduction measures. Such centers can play an invaluable role in facilitating discussions aimed at forestalling possible contingencies and in providing a mechanism for dampening escalatory dangers that might otherwise result from any future nuclear terrorism incident. In addition to these crucial substantive functions, the centers could serve to reassure anxious publics that the governments they have entrusted with command authority over tens of thousands of nuclear devices are giving the highest priority to reducing the risk that any of them will ever be used, whether by design or by accident. Nuclear risk Reduction Centers are an idea whose time has come

Variations with time and age in the relative risks of solid cancer incidence after radiation exposure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R.; de Vathaire, F.; Charles, M.W.

1997-01-01

The Japanese atomic bomb survivor cancer incidence dataset and data on five groups exposed to radiation for medical reasons in childhood are analysed and evidence found for a reduction in the radiation-induced relative risk of cancers other than leukaemia with increasing time since exposure and age at exposure. The rate of the reductions in relative risk with time since exposure are not significantly different for those exposed in childhood and for those exposed in adulthood, if adjustment is made for the effects on the relative risk of age at exposure. For those irradiated in childhood, there is a statistically significant annual reduction of 5.8% (95% Cl 2.8, 8.9) in excess relative risk, and there are no strong indications of inter-cohort heterogeniety in the speed of reduction of relative risk. After adjustment for the effects of age at exposure, there is a significant annual reduction of 3.6% (95% Cl 1.6, 5.6) in excess relative risk in all age-at-exposure groups. There are significant reductions of 5.2% (95% Cl 3.7, 6.8) in excess relative risk per year of age at exposure. There are statistically significant (P = 0.04) interactions between the exponential adjustments to the excess relative risk for age at exposure and time since exposure in the Japanese data, but no indications (P = 0.38) of such interactions when powers of time since exposure and attained age are used to adjust the excess relative risk, so that the fit of the model with power adjustments is to be preferred to that of the model with exponential adjustments. (author)

Earth observation for disaster risk reduction in Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rafiq, L.

2012-01-01

This thesis investigates the role of Earth Observation (EO) for disaster risk reduction for Pakistan. It demonstrates that significant improvements are possible through the utilization of EO data for natural disaster risk reduction activities in Pakistan. In this thesis, a multi hazard approach is proposed in order to identify vulnerability and risk at district level in Pakistan. In particular, a methodology for ranking hazards, vulnerabilities and risks based on Delphi methods is developed. This method is implemented and the results are mapped for four selected hazards i.e., earthquakes, floods, cyclones and droughts. Based on the final risk rankings, the potential of EO is explored with a focus on vulnerability assessment through detailed analysis of two case studies i.e.; Flood and Cyclone/Tsunami. The study also reviews and evaluates the institutional framework of the National Disaster Management Authority of Pakistan in order to identify existing gaps and address them in view of modern technology being used globally. Results reveal that these gaps are mainly related to policies, coordination and communication of different stakeholders at the national level. The work also reviews the available Early Warning System (EWS) in Pakistan and particularly its usage during disasters. Within the context of EWS, multi-sensor satellite data have been utilized for the analysis of structure of an Arabian Sea tropical Cyclone. Results of this focal study provide useful information for operational analysis and forecasting as well as for designing disaster mitigation measures. This information may also play a major role in the development of cyclone warning strategies in the future. (author)

Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Xiang, E-mail: liu94@illinois.edu; Saat, M. Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu; Barkan, Christopher P.L., E-mail: cbarkan@illinois.edu

2013-09-15

Highlights: • An integrated framework is developed to optimize risk reduction. • A negative binomial regression model is developed to analyze accident-cause-specific railcar derailment probability. • A Pareto-optimality technique is applied to determine the lowest risk given any level of resource. • A multi-attribute decision model is developed to determine the optimal amount of investment for risk reduction. • The models could aid the government and rail industry in developing cost-efficient risk reduction policy and practice. -- Abstract: Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation.

Consideration on the health risk reduction related to attainment of the new particulate matter standards in Poland: A top-down policy risk assessment approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Kobza, Joanna; Pastuszka, Józef S; Gulis, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Policies can influence health of a population in various ways. Numerous epidemiological studies supported by toxicological investigations demonstrate a positive association between ambient concentrations of airborne particulate matter and increased adverse cardio-respiratory events, including morbidity and mortality. The aim of this paper was to present the concept of the top-down health policy risk assessment approach model developed to estimate the expected health risk reduction associated with policy aiming at attaining the new particulate matter ≤ 10 μm in diameter (PM10) standards in Poland. The top-down approach guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy to health outcomes. In this case study we tried to estimate the predicted health effects of the policy change over the past 20 years. Since Polish annual standard for PM10 changed from 50 μg/m³ in 1990 to 40 μg/m³ in 2010, we calculated the relative risk associated with decreasing PM10 in diameter to 10 μg/m3 in the annual level of PM10 for 6 adverse health effects. The relative risk slightly decreased for almost all adverse health effects, which means that the relative decrease in the incidence of health effects from the baseline incidence should range from about 0.5-0.6% for heart disease admissions to > 1% for respiratory admissions. The obtained results indicate that implementation of the new ambient air standards could influence improvement of the health status of Polish population. A top-down policy health risk assessment model can be one of the main tools in this process, providing harmonized guidance how to seek evidence-based information, which could serve policy-makers. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

A text message intervention for alcohol risk reduction among community college students: TMAP.

Science.gov (United States)

Bock, Beth C; Barnett, Nancy P; Thind, Herpreet; Rosen, Rochelle; Walaska, Kristen; Traficante, Regina; Foster, Robert; Deutsch, Chris; Fava, Joseph L; Scott-Sheldon, Lori A J

2016-12-01

Students at community colleges comprise nearly half of all U.S. college students and show higher risk of heavy drinking and related consequences compared to students at 4-year colleges, but no alcohol safety programs currently target this population. To examine the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary efficacy of an alcohol risk-reduction program delivered through text messaging designed for community college (CC) students. Heavy drinking adult CC students (N=60) were enrolled and randomly assigned to the six-week active intervention (Text Message Alcohol Program: TMAP) or a control condition of general motivational (not alcohol related) text messages. TMAP text messages consisted of alcohol facts, strategies to limit alcohol use and related risks, and motivational messages. Assessments were conducted at baseline, week 6 (end of treatment) and week 12 (follow up). Most participants (87%) completed all follow up assessments. Intervention messages received an average rating of 6.8 (SD=1.5) on a 10-point scale. At week six, TMAP participants were less likely than controls to report heavy drinking and negative alcohol consequences. The TMAP group also showed significant increases in self-efficacy to resist drinking in high risk situations between baseline and week six, with no such increase among controls. Results were maintained through the week 12 follow up. The TMAP alcohol risk reduction program was feasible and highly acceptable indicated by high retention rates through the final follow up assessment and good ratings for the text message content. Reductions in multiple outcomes provide positive indications of intervention efficacy. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Relationships among Trust in Messages, Risk Perception, and Risk Reduction Preferences Based upon Avian Influenza in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, David; Fang, Chen-Ling; Tsai, Bi-Kun; Lan, Li-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Shan

2012-01-01

Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1) the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2) the higher the consumers’ risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3) consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception. PMID:23066394

Relationships among Trust in Messages, Risk Perception, and Risk Reduction Preferences Based upon Avian Influenza in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen-Shan Hsu

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1 the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2 the higher the consumers’ risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3 consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception.

Risk of hospital admission for COPD following smoking cessation and reduction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Godtfredsen, N S; Vestbo, J; Osler, M

2002-01-01

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effects of changes in smoking habits on the subsequent risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between smoking cessation and reduction and admission to hospital for COPD in a general...... by at least 50% between the two initial examinations without quitting and smokers who stopped smoking during this time were compared with continuous heavy smokers using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: During the follow up period 1,260 subjects (741 men and 519 women) were admitted to hospital...... for COPD. After multivariate adjustment, quitting smoking was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of hospital admission. The relative hazard (HR) was 0.57 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.33 to 0.99). Those who reduced smoking did not show a significantly lower risk of hospitalisation than...

On reduction of risks in UXO and mine detection using remote sensing systems and related synthetic image simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Bostater, Charles R., Jr.

2005-06-01

It is important to understand remote sensing systems and associated platforms in the context of autonomous or semi-autonomous designs for (robotic & mechatronics) that may be affect the motion control or stabilization aspects of the imagery, scan lines or fixed points scanned. This need can be most easily conceived as being related to the reduction of risks associated with false detection as well as the risks associated with hardware and software failure and risks associated with the actual operation of sensor and platform in dangerous environments. Thus safety is ultimately our concern when it comes to risk assessment. This paper will describe (a) remote sensing systems, (b) platforms (fixed and mobile, as well as to demonstrate (c) the value of thinking in terms of scalability as well as modularity in the design and application of new systems and (d) creation of synthetic signatures obtained for detection of targets in the aquatic environment. New systems - sensing systems as well as autonomous or semiautonomous robotic and mechatronic systems will be essential to secure domestic preparedness for humanitarian reasons as well as for demining and UXO detection. These same systems hold tremendous value, if thoughtfully designed for other applications which include environmental monitoring and surveillance.

Disaster management and risk reduction in South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Bruwer, A

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction concludes that the mortality and economic loss associated with extensive risks (minor but recurrent disaster risks) in low- and middle-income countries are trending up. In the last decade...

Reduction of Systemic Risk by Means of Pigouvian Taxation.

Science.gov (United States)

Zlatić, Vinko; Gabbi, Giampaolo; Abraham, Hrvoje

2015-01-01

We analyze the possibility of reduction of systemic risk in financial markets through Pigouvian taxation of financial institutions, which is used to support the rescue fund. We introduce the concept of the cascade risk with a clear operational definition as a subclass and a network related measure of the systemic risk. Using financial networks constructed from real Italian money market data and using realistic parameters, we show that the cascade risk can be substantially reduced by a small rate of taxation and by means of a simple strategy of the money transfer from the rescue fund to interbanking market subjects. Furthermore, we show that while negative effects on the return on investment (ROI) are direct and certain, an overall positive effect on risk adjusted return on investments (ROIRA) is visible. Please note that the taxation is introduced as a monetary/regulatory, not as a _scal measure, as the term could suggest. The rescue fund is implemented in a form of a common reserve fund.

Reduction of Systemic Risk by Means of Pigouvian Taxation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vinko Zlatić

Full Text Available We analyze the possibility of reduction of systemic risk in financial markets through Pigouvian taxation of financial institutions, which is used to support the rescue fund. We introduce the concept of the cascade risk with a clear operational definition as a subclass and a network related measure of the systemic risk. Using financial networks constructed from real Italian money market data and using realistic parameters, we show that the cascade risk can be substantially reduced by a small rate of taxation and by means of a simple strategy of the money transfer from the rescue fund to interbanking market subjects. Furthermore, we show that while negative effects on the return on investment (ROI are direct and certain, an overall positive effect on risk adjusted return on investments (ROIRA is visible. Please note that the taxation is introduced as a monetary/regulatory, not as a _scal measure, as the term could suggest. The rescue fund is implemented in a form of a common reserve fund.

Beyond the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: Vulnerability Reduction as a Challenge Involving Historical and Traditional Buildings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valentina Pica

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In observance of the international procedures on disaster risk management, and in particular the Sendai Framework (2015, this research focuses on how more specific procedures related to it can be made effective in the treatment of historic areas worldwide. Disaster risk management is now viewed as being important in the context of historic buildings, as they are strongly related to cultural identity as well as to resilient communities, and can have a large impact on local economies. The study points out that cultural heritage might be the core field of action for capacity building in less vulnerable places, and that its protection is one of the main tasks to attend to in order to achieve the goal of vulnerability reduction. The paper also aims to answer questions such as: which actions could allow better protection of cultural heritage? Is it correct to involve local communities in reconstruction plans by capacity building and self-managed projects? How have reconstruction plans been managed recently worldwide? By further developing the applicability of the priority areas of action of the Sendai Framework, the research illustrates critical points and best practices that will hopefully support disaster risk reduction based on strategic management and remote monitoring, involving technologies and social participation.

Health risk reduction programs in employer-sponsored health plans: Part II-law and ethics.

Science.gov (United States)

Rothstein, Mark A; Harrell, Heather L

2009-08-01

We sought to examine the legal and ethical implications of workplace health risk reduction programs (HRRPs) using health risk assessments, individually focused risk reduction, and financial incentives to promote compliance. We conducted a literature review, analyzed relevant statutes and regulations, and considered the effects of these programs on employee health privacy. A variety of laws regulate HRRPs, and there is little evidence that employer-sponsored HRRPs violate these provisions; infringement on individual health privacy is more difficult to assess. Although current laws permit a wide range of employer health promotion activities, HRRPs also may entail largely unquantifiable costs to employee privacy and related interests.

Health Risk Reduction Programs in Employer-Sponsored Health Plans: Part II—Law and Ethics

Science.gov (United States)

Rothstein, Mark A.; Harrell, Heather L.

2011-01-01

Objective We sought to examine the legal and ethical implications of workplace health risk reduction programs (HRRPs) using health risk assessments, individually focused risk reduction, and financial incentives to promote compliance. Methods We conducted a literature review, analyzed relevant statutes and regulations, and considered the effects of these programs on employee health privacy. Results A variety of laws regulate HRRPs, and there is little evidence that employer-sponsored HRRPs violate these provisions; infringement on individual health privacy is more difficult to assess. Conclusion Although current laws permit a wide range of employer health promotion activities, HRRPs also may entail largely unquantifiable costs to employee privacy and related interests. PMID:19625971

Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiang; Saat, M Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

2013-09-15

Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The efficacy of serostatus disclosure for HIV Transmission risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connell, Ann A; Reed, Sandra J; Serovich, Julianne A

2015-02-01

Interventions to assist HIV+ persons in disclosing their serostatus to sexual partners can play an important role in curbing rates of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). Based on the methods of Pinkerton and Galletly (AIDS Behav 11:698-705, 2007), we develop a mathematical probability model for evaluating effectiveness of serostatus disclosure in reducing the risk of HIV transmission and extend the model to examine the impact of serosorting. In baseline data from 164 HIV+ MSM participating in a randomized controlled trial of a disclosure intervention, disclosure is associated with a 45.0 % reduction in the risk of HIV transmission. Accounting for serosorting, a 61.2 % reduction in risk due to disclosure was observed in serodisconcordant couples. The reduction in risk for seroconcordant couples was 38.4 %. Evidence provided supports the value of serostatus disclosure as a risk reduction strategy in HIV+ MSM. Interventions to increase serostatus disclosure and that address serosorting behaviors are needed.

The effect of alternative summary statistics for communicating risk reduction on decisions about taking statins: a randomized trial.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheryl L L Carling

2009-08-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: While different ways of presenting treatment effects can affect health care decisions, little is known about which presentations best help people make decisions consistent with their own values. We compared six summary statistics for communicating coronary heart disease (CHD risk reduction with statins: relative risk reduction and five absolute summary measures-absolute risk reduction, number needed to treat, event rates, tablets needed to take, and natural frequencies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a randomized trial to determine which presentation resulted in choices most consistent with participants' values. We recruited adult volunteers who participated through an interactive Web site. Participants rated the relative importance of outcomes using visual analogue scales (VAS. We then randomized participants to one of the six summary statistics and asked them to choose whether to take statins based on this information. We calculated a relative importance score (RIS by subtracting the VAS scores for the downsides of taking statins from the VAS score for CHD. We used logistic regression to determine the association between participants' RIS and their choice. 2,978 participants completed the study. Relative risk reduction resulted in a 21% higher probability of choosing to take statins over all values of RIS compared to the absolute summary statistics. This corresponds to a number needed to treat (NNT of 5; i.e., for every five participants shown the relative risk reduction one additional participant chose to take statins, compared to the other summary statistics. There were no significant differences among the absolute summary statistics in the association between RIS and participants' decisions whether to take statins. Natural frequencies were best understood (86% reported they understood them well or very well, and participants were most satisfied with this information. CONCLUSIONS: Presenting the benefits of taking statins as

Waiting for Disasters: A Risk Reduction Assessment of Technological Disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Rovins, Jane; Winningham, Sam

2010-05-01

This session provides a risk reduction/mitigation assessment of natural hazards causation of technological disasters and possible solution. People use technology in an attempt to not only control their environment but nature itself in order to make them feel safe and productive. Most strategies for managing hazards followed a traditional planning model i.e. study the problem, identify and implement a solution, and move on to the next problem. This approach is often viewed as static model and risk reduction is more of an upward, positive, linear trend. However, technological disasters do not allow risk reduction action to neatly fit this upward, positive, linear trend with actual or potential threats to the environment and society. There are different types of technological disasters, including industrial accidents; pipeline ruptures; accidents at power, water and heat supply systems and other lines of communication; sudden collapse of buildings and mines; air crashes; shipwrecks; automobile and railway accidents to name a few. Natural factors can play an essential role in triggering or magnifying technological disasters. They can result from the direct destruction of given technical objects by a hazardous natural process such as the destruction of an atomic power plant or chemical plant due to an earthquake. Other examples would include the destruction of communications or infrastructure systems by heavy snowfalls, strong winds, avalanches. Events in the past ten years clearly demonstrate that natural disasters and the technological disasters that accompany them are not problems that can be solved in isolation and risk reduction can play an important part. Risk reduction was designed to head off the continuing rising financial and structural tolls from disasters. All Hazard Risk Reduction planning was supposed to include not only natural, but technological, and human-made disasters as well. The subsequent disaster risk reduction (DRR) indicators were to provide the

Nighttime parenting strategies and sleep-related risks to infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Volpe, Lane E; Ball, Helen L; McKenna, James J

2013-02-01

A large social science and public health literature addresses infant sleep safety, with implications for infant mortality in the context of accidental deaths and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). As part of risk reduction campaigns in the USA, parents are encouraged to place infants supine and to alter infant bedding and elements of the sleep environment, and are discouraged from allowing infants to sleep unsupervised, from bed-sharing either at all or under specific circumstances, or from sofa-sharing. These recommendations are based on findings from large-scale epidemiological studies that generate odds ratios or relative risk statistics for various practices; however, detailed behavioural data on nighttime parenting and infant sleep environments are limited. To address this issue, this paper presents and discusses the implications of four case studies based on overnight observations conducted with first-time mothers and their four-month old infants. These case studies were collected at the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at the University of Notre Dame USA between September 2002 and June 2004. Each case study provides a detailed description based on video analysis of sleep-related risks observed while mother-infant dyads spent the night in a sleep lab. The case studies provide examples of mothers engaged in the strategic management of nighttime parenting for whom sleep-related risks to infants arose as a result of these strategies. Although risk reduction guidelines focus on eliminating potentially risky infant sleep practices as if the probability of death from each were equal, the majority of instances in which these occur are unlikely to result in infant mortality. Therefore, we hypothesise that mothers assess potential costs and benefits within margins of risk which are not acknowledged by risk-reduction campaigns. Exploring why mothers might choose to manage sleep and nighttime parenting in ways that appear to increase potential risks to infants may

Sound transit climate risk reduction project.

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-01

The Climate Risk Reduction Project assessed how climate change may affect Sound Transit commuter rail, light rail, and express bus : services. The project identified potential climate change impacts on agency operations, assets, and long-term plannin...

Ecosystem Approach To Flood Disaster Risk Reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

RK Kamble

2013-12-01

Full Text Available India is one of the ten worst disaster prone countries of the world. The country is prone to disasters due to number of factors; both natural and anthropogenic, including adverse geo-climatic conditions, topographical features, environmental degradation, population growth, urbanisation, industrlisation, non-scientific development practices etc. The factors either in original or by accelerating the intensity and frequency of disasters are responsible for heavy toll of human lives and disrupting the life support systems in the country. India has 40 million hectares of the flood-prone area, on an average, flood affect an area of around 7.5 million hectares per year. Knowledge of environmental systems and processes are key factors in the management of disasters, particularly the hydro-metrological ones. Management of flood risk and disaster is a multi-dimensional affair that calls for interdisciplinary approach. Ecosystem based disaster risk reduction builds on ecosystem management principles, strategies and tools in order to maximise ecosystem services for risk reduction. This perspective takes into account the integration of social and ecological systems, placing people at the centre of decision making. The present paper has been attempted to demonstrate how ecosystem-based approach can help in flood disaster risk reduction. International Journal of Environment, Volume-2, Issue-1, Sep-Nov 2013, Pages 70-82 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v2i1.9209

Social Participation and Disaster Risk Reduction Behaviors in Tsunami Prone Areas

Science.gov (United States)

Witvorapong, Nopphol; Muttarak, Raya; Pothisiri, Wiraporn

2015-01-01

This paper examines the relationships between social participation and disaster risk reduction actions. A survey of 557 households in tsunami prone areas in Phang Nga, Thailand was conducted following the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes. We use a multivariate probit model to jointly estimate the likelihood of undertaking three responses to earthquake and tsunami hazards (namely, (1) following disaster-related news closely, (2) preparing emergency kits and/or having a family emergency plan, and (3) having an intention to migrate) and community participation. We find that those who experienced losses from the 2004 tsunami are more likely to participate in community activities and respond to earthquake hazards. Compared to men, women are more likely to prepare emergency kits and/or have an emergency plan and have a greater intention to migrate. Living in a community with a higher proportion of women with tertiary education increases the probability of engaging in community activities and carrying out disaster risk reduction measures. Individuals who participate in village-based activities are 5.2% more likely to undertake all three risk reduction actions compared to those not engaging in community activities. This implies that encouraging participation in community activities can have positive externalities in disaster mitigation. PMID:26153891

Children capacity in disaster risk reduction: A call for action

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leila Mohammadinia

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Disasters have various physical, psychological, social and economical effects on all age group, particularly children who are more vulnerable than adults. In the aftermath of disasters, children like pregnant women, elderly and handicaps are special group with special needs. This is because they are at greater risk based on their specific physiological and psychological characteristics. Moreover,, according to the Sendai document, children need more attention in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRRprograms design, policies implementation with a proactive approach in Disaster Risk Reduction (1. In the Sendai document it is emphasized that policies regarding disaster risk reduction, cognition and risk perception about the risk property should be considered based upon the hazards and the environment in terms of vulnerability, capacity and exposure (2.Hyogo framework for action was also already have been focused on child priority on the legislation program (3. Accordingly, it is necessary to involve children in disaster risk reduction programs actively in order to overcome their needs and their problems (4. As children are more affected groups in various aspects of disasters in most countries, their potential utilization, the conditions and space should be provided based on laws, national policies, training and capacity. Although after disaster children required particular needs and attention(5-6, they should be considered as an active group who could participate in DRR program and help their family and also the community.(4, 7 Some evidences suggest on value of children team working for community preparedness. Iran had a successful experience for using adolescence capacity as a pillar in activation of early warning; including notification announced while observing the rising sea levels for local community in order to reduce the risk of flood disaster at a local area in the North of Iran. According to the Hyogo and the Sendai documents, it seems that using

Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

2016-01-01

The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

2012-01-01

In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

Abdominal obesity: causal factor or simply a symptom of obesity-related health risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oh S

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Sechang Oh,1 Kiyoji Tanaka,2 Jin-won Noh,3 Rina So,2,4 Takehiko Tsujimoto,2 Hiroyuki Sasai,1,4 Mijung Kim,5 Junichi Shoda11Faculty of Medicine, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 2Faculty of Health and Sports Science, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 3Department of Healthcare Management, Eulji University, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea; 4Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Tokyo, Japan; 5Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, JapanBackground: Abdominal fat (AF reduction is advocated in the treatment of obesity-related diseases. Nonetheless, recent studies have shown additional beneficial effects against obesity-related health risks, independent of AF reduction. Therefore it is important to determine whether AF plays a causal role in promoting metabolic disorders or is simply a symptom of increased obesity-related health risk factors. Clarification of the primary role of AF in the pathogenesis of obesity-related disease is also important.Objective: This retrospective study was conducted with the objectives of 1 comparison between groups exhibiting equivalent amounts of AF loss that resulted from distinct treatments (exercise and dietary restriction with respect to degrees of improvement in obesity-related health risk factors and 2 determination of definite differences in the outcomes of obesity-related health risk in subjects receiving identical treatment (exercise but exhibiting a remarkable difference in AF reduction.Design: In 66 subjects who completed a 12-week exercise or dietary restriction program, 17 parameters (systolic blood pressure [SBP] and diastolic blood pressure [DBP]; high-sensitivity C-reactive protein [hs-CRP]; leptin, adiponectin, tumor necrosis factor [TNF]-α, interleukin [IL]-6; alanine aminotransferase [ALT], gamma glutamyl transpeptidase [γGT]; lipid profile: high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDLC], triglyceride [TG

A randomized comparison of patients' understanding of number needed to treat and other common risk reduction formats.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheridan, Stacey L; Pignone, Michael P; Lewis, Carmen L

2003-11-01

Commentators have suggested that patients may understand quantitative information about treatment benefits better when they are presented as numbers needed to treat (NNT) rather than as absolute or relative risk reductions. To determine whether NNT helps patients interpret treatment benefits better than absolute risk reduction (ARR), relative risk reduction (RRR), or a combination of all three of these risk reduction presentations (COMBO). Randomized cross-sectional survey. University internal medicine clinic. Three hundred fifty-seven men and women, ages 50 to 80, who presented for health care. Subjects were given written information about the baseline risk of a hypothetical "disease Y" and were asked (1) to compare the benefits of two drug treatments for disease Y, stating which provided more benefit; and (2) to calculate the effect of one of those drug treatments on a given baseline risk of disease. Risk information was presented to each subject in one of four randomly allocated risk formats: NNT, ARR, RRR, or COMBO. When asked to state which of two treatments provided more benefit, subjects who received the RRR format responded correctly most often (60% correct vs 43% for COMBO, 42% for ARR, and 30% for NNT, P =.001). Most subjects were unable to calculate the effect of drug treatment on the given baseline risk of disease, although subjects receiving the RRR and ARR formats responded correctly more often (21% and 17% compared to 7% for COMBO and 6% for NNT, P =.004). Patients are best able to interpret the benefits of treatment when they are presented in an RRR format with a given baseline risk of disease. ARR also is easily interpreted. NNT is often misinterpreted by patients and should not be used alone to communicate risk to patients.

Historic Landslide Data Combined with Sentinel Satellite Data to Improve Modelling for Disaster Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Bye, B. L.; Kontoes, C.; Catarino, N.; De Lathouwer, B.; Concalves, P.; Meyer-Arnek, J.; Mueller, A.; Kraft, C.; Grosso, N.; Goor, E.; Voidrot, M. F.; Trypitsidis, A.

2017-12-01

Landslides are geohazards potentially resulting in disasters. Landslides both vary enormously in their distribution in space and time. The surface deformation varies considerably from one type of instability to another. Individual ground instabilities may have a common trigger (extreme rainfall, earthquake), and therefore occur alongside many equivalent occurrences over a large area. This means that they can have a significant regional impact demanding national and international disaster risk reduction strategies. Regional impacts require collaboration across boarders as reflected in The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). The data demands related to the SDGs are unprecedented, another factor that will require coordinated efforts at the global, regional and national levels. Data of good quality are vital for governments, international organizations, civil society, the private sector and the general public in order to make informed decisions, included for disaster risk reduction. The NextGEOSS project evolves the European vision of a user driven GEOSS data exploitation for innovation and business, relying on 3 main pillars; engaging communities of practice, delivering technological advancements, and advocating the use of GEOSS. These 3 pillars support the creation and deployment of Earth observation based innovative research activities and commercial services. In this presentation we will explain how one of the 10 NextGEOSS pilots, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), plan to provide an enhanced multi-hazard risk assessment framework based on statistical analysis of long time series of data. Landslide events monitoring and landslides susceptibility estimation will be emphazised. Workflows will be based on models developed in the context of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service. Data envisaged to be used are: Radar SAR data; Yearly ground deformation/velocities; Historic landslide inventory; data related to topographic, geological, hydrological

Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pol, van der T.D.

2015-01-01

Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies.

Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shah, Chirag [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Vicini, Frank A., E-mail: fvicini@beaumont.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States)

2011-11-15

As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2-65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shah, Chirag; Vicini, Frank A.

2011-01-01

As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer–related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2–65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

Software for Probabilistic Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Hensley, Scott; Michel, Thierry; Madsen, Soren; Chapin, Elaine; Rodriguez, Ernesto

2004-01-01

A computer program implements a methodology, denoted probabilistic risk reduction, that is intended to aid in planning the development of complex software and/or hardware systems. This methodology integrates two complementary prior methodologies: (1) that of probabilistic risk assessment and (2) a risk-based planning methodology, implemented in a prior computer program known as Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP), in which multiple requirements and the beneficial effects of risk-mitigation actions are taken into account. The present methodology and the software are able to accommodate both process knowledge (notably of the efficacy of development practices) and product knowledge (notably of the logical structure of a system, the development of which one seeks to plan). Estimates of the costs and benefits of a planned development can be derived. Functional and non-functional aspects of software can be taken into account, and trades made among them. It becomes possible to optimize the planning process in the sense that it becomes possible to select the best suite of process steps and design choices to maximize the expectation of success while remaining within budget.

Workplace injuries and risk reduction practices in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, Roslinah; Shaharudin, Rafiza; Omar, Azahadi; Yusoff, Fadhli

2012-01-01

This study on workplace injuries and risk reduction practices was part of the Malaysia National Health Morbidity Survey III (NHMS III) conducted in 2006. This cross-sectional population-based survey was conducted to determine the incidence of workplaces injuries and assess the magnitude of some important risk reduction practices among workers. Data were gathered through face-to-face household interviews using a pre-coded questionnaire. Of the 22 880 eligible respondents, 88·2% (20 180) responded. The incidence rate for injuries at the workplace was 4·9 per 100 (95% CI: 4·6-5·2). The overall proportion of workers who had received occupational safety and health (OSH) training before or within 1 month of starting work was 33·6%. Among respondents who perceived that personal protective equipment (PPE) was required at their workplace, only 38·9% (95% CI: 37·8-39·4) were provided with it by their employers. Further studies are urgently needed to identify reasons for and management of the low uptake of risk reduction practices. This issue needs to be addressed to ensure the safety and health of our working population.

Review of clinical practice guidelines for the management of LDL-related risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Pamela B; Ballantyne, Christie M; Birtcher, Kim K; Dunn, Steven P; Urbina, Elaine M

2014-07-15

Managing risk related to low-density lipoprotein (LDL) is vital in therapy for patients at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events given its important etiologic role in atherogenesis. Despite decades of research showing reduction of ASCVD risk with multiple approaches to lowering of LDL cholesterol, there continue to be significant gaps in care with inadequate numbers of patients receiving standard of care lipid-lowering therapy. Confusion regarding implementation of the multiple published clinical practice guidelines has been identified as one contributor to suboptimal management of LDL-related risk. This review summarizes the current guidelines for reduction of LDL-related cardiovascular risk provided by a number of major professional societies, which have broad applicability to diverse populations worldwide. Statements have varied in the process and methodology of development of recommendations, the grading system for level and strength of evidence, the inclusion or exclusion of expert opinion, the suggested ASCVD risk assessment tool, the lipoproteins recommended for risk assessment, and the lipoprotein targets of therapy. The similarities and differences among important guidelines in the United States and internationally are discussed, with recommendations for future strategies to improve consistency in approaches to LDL-related ASCVD risk and to reduce gaps in implementation of evidence-based therapies. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating a Health Risk Reduction Program.

Science.gov (United States)

Nagelberg, Daniel B.

1981-01-01

A health risk reduction program at Bowling Green State University (Ohio) tested the efficacy of peer education against the efficacy of returning (by mail) health questionnaire results. A peer health education program did not appear to be effective in changing student attitudes or lifestyles; however, the research methodology may not have been…

Disaster risk reduction capacity assessment for precarious settlements in Guatemala City.

Science.gov (United States)

Miles, Scott B; Green, Rebekah A; Svekla, Walter

2012-07-01

This study presents findings of an institutional capacity analysis of urban disaster risk reduction for informal settlements in the Guatemala Metropolitan Region. It uses a resource access perspective of vulnerability, actor-network theory, and qualitative data collection. The analysis reveals that there is interest in disaster risk reduction for the informal settlements; however, there is little in the way of direct financial or oversight relationships between informal settlement residents and all other actors. Respondents observed that informal settlements would probably remain inhabited; thus, there is a need for disaster risk reduction within these settlements. Disaster risk reduction capacity for informal settlements exists and can be further leveraged, as long as steps are taken to ensure appropriate access to and control of resources and oversight. Further, the nascent institutional arrangements should be strengthened through increased communication and coordination between actors, a decentralization of oversight and financial relationships, and mediation of identified resource conflicts. © 2012 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2012.

Risk factors in limb reduction defects.

Science.gov (United States)

Stoll, C; Alembik, Y; Dott, B; Roth, M P

1992-07-01

Risk factors were studied in 123 children with limb reduction defects (LRD) from 118,265 consecutive births of known outcome during the period from 1979 to 1987 in the area which is covered by our registry of congenital malformations. For each case a control was studied. The LRD was localised and classified according to the EUROCAT guide for the description and classification of limb defects. The prevalence of LRD was 1.04 per thousand: 82.9% of the babies were liveborn, 13.0% were late spontaneous abortion or stillborn and termination was performed in 4.0% of the cases. The proportion of males was 0.55. The most common malformations in the 51.2% of children who had at least one other anomaly than LRD were associated cardiac, digestive and renal anomalies. The pregnancy with limb anomalies was more often complicated by oligohydramnios, polyhydramnios and threatened abortion but there were no differences in parental characteristics. However, 9.7% of marriages were consanguineous (P less than 0.01) and the incidence of LRD in first-degree relatives of the children with LRD was high. First-degree relatives also had more non-limb malformations than did those of controls.

Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Tekeşin, Cem; Ara, Shihomi

2014-01-01

The willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident) are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL) estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD). Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction) against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD). Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU) air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality. PMID:25000150

Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cem Tekeşin

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The willingness to pay (WTP for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD. Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD. Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality.

Can I Count on Getting Better? Association between Math Anxiety and Poorer Understanding of Medical Risk Reductions.

Science.gov (United States)

Rolison, Jonathan J; Morsanyi, Kinga; O'Connor, Patrick A

2016-10-01

Lower numerical ability is associated with poorer understanding of health statistics, such as risk reductions of medical treatment. For many people, despite good numeracy skills, math provokes anxiety that impedes an ability to evaluate numerical information. Math-anxious individuals also report less confidence in their ability to perform math tasks. We hypothesized that, independent of objective numeracy, math anxiety would be associated with poorer responding and lower confidence when calculating risk reductions of medical treatments. Objective numeracy was assessed using an 11-item objective numeracy scale. A 13-item self-report scale was used to assess math anxiety. In experiment 1, participants were asked to interpret the baseline risk of disease and risk reductions associated with treatment options. Participants in experiment 2 were additionally provided a graphical display designed to facilitate the processing of math information and alleviate effects of math anxiety. Confidence ratings were provided on a 7-point scale. Individuals of higher objective numeracy were more likely to respond correctly to baseline risks and risk reductions associated with treatment options and were more confident in their interpretations. Individuals who scored high in math anxiety were instead less likely to correctly interpret the baseline risks and risk reductions and were less confident in their risk calculations as well as in their assessments of the effectiveness of treatment options. Math anxiety predicted confidence levels but not correct responding when controlling for objective numeracy. The graphical display was most effective in increasing confidence among math-anxious individuals. The findings suggest that math anxiety is associated with poorer medical risk interpretation but is more strongly related to confidence in interpretations. © The Author(s) 2015.

Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Bell, K. [Convergence Research, Seattle, WA (United States); Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States); Spinney P. [Charles River Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

1996-12-31

This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

Comparative Effectiveness of Personalized Lifestyle Management Strategies for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Paula; Pandya, Ankur; Salomon, Joshua A; Goldie, Sue J; Hunink, M G Myriam

2016-03-29

Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. We computed risks using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations for a variety of individual profiles. Using published literature on risk factor reductions through diverse lifestyle interventions-group therapy for stopping smoking, Mediterranean diet, aerobic exercise (walking), and yoga-we calculated the risk reduction through each of these interventions to determine the strategy associated with the maximum benefit for each profile. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results. In the base-case analysis, yoga was associated with the largest 10-year cardiovascular disease risk reductions (maximum absolute reduction 16.7% for the highest-risk individuals). Walking generally ranked second (max 11.4%), followed by Mediterranean diet (max 9.2%), and group therapy for smoking (max 1.6%). If the individual was a current smoker and successfully quit smoking (ie, achieved complete smoking cessation), then stopping smoking yielded the largest reduction. Probabilistic and 1-way sensitivity analysis confirmed the demonstrated trend. This study reports the comparative effectiveness of several forms of lifestyle modifications and found smoking cessation and yoga to be the most effective forms of cardiovascular disease prevention. Future research should focus on patient adherence to personalized therapies, cost-effectiveness of these strategies, and the potential for enhanced benefit when interventions are performed simultaneously rather than as single measures. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Levelized cost-risk reduction prioritization of waste disposal options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilkinson, V.K.; Young, J.M.

1992-01-01

The prioritization of solid waste disposal options in terms of reduced risk to workers, the public, and the environment has recently generated considerable governmental and public interest. In this paper we address the development of a methodology to establish priorities for waste disposal options, such as incineration, landfills, long-term storage, waste minimization, etc. The study is one result of an overall project to develop methodologies for Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) of non-reactor nuclear facilities for the US Department of Energy. Option preferences are based on a levelized cost-risk reduction analysis. Option rankings are developed as functions of disposal option cost and timing, relative long- and short-term risks, and possible accident scenarios. We examine the annual costs and risks for each option over a large number of years. Risk, in this paper, is defined in terms of annual fatalities (both prompt and long-term) and environmental restoration costs that might result from either an accidental release or long-term exposure to both plant workers and the public near the site or facility. We use event timing to weigh both costs and risks; near-term costs and risks are discounted less than future expenditures and fatalities. This technique levels the timing of cash flows and benefits by converting future costs and benefits to present value costs and benefits. We give an example Levelized Cost-Benefit Analysis of incinerator location options to demonstrate the methodology and required data

The effect of risk perception on public preferences and willingness to pay for reductions in the health risks posed by toxic cyanobacterial blooms.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, Peter D; Hanley, Nick; Czajkowski, Mikołaj; Mearns, Kathryn; Tyler, Andrew N; Carvalho, Laurence; Codd, Geoffrey A

2012-06-01

Mass populations of toxin-producing cyanobacteria are an increasingly common occurrence in inland and coastal waters used for recreational purposes. These mass populations pose serious risks to human and animal health and impose potentially significant economic costs on society. In this study, we used contingent valuation (CV) methods to elicit public willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in the morbidity risks posed by blooms of toxin-producing cyanobacteria in Loch Leven, Scotland. We found that 55% of respondents (68% excluding protest voters) were willing to pay for a reduction in the number of days per year (from 90, to either 45 or 0 days) that cyanobacteria pose a risk to human health at Loch Leven. The mean WTP for a risk reduction was UK£9.99-12.23/household/year estimated using a logistic spike model. In addition, using the spike model and a simultaneous equations model to control for endogeneity bias, we found the respondents' WTP was strongly dependent on socio-demographic characteristics, economic status and usage of the waterbody, but also individual-specific attitudes and perceptions towards health risks. This study demonstrates that anticipated health risk reductions are an important nonmarket benefit of improving water quality in recreational waters and should be accounted for in future cost-benefit analyses such as those being undertaken under the auspices of the European Union's Water Framework Directive, but also that such values depend on subjective perceptions of water-related health risks and general attitudes towards the environment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Draft for comment, February 1987

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amos, C N [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Benjamin, A S; Kunsman, D M; Williams, D C [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Boyd, G J; Lewis, S R [Safety and Reliability Optimization Services, Inc., Knoxville, TN (United States); Smith, L N [Science Applications International Corporation, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1987-04-01

The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a boiling water reactor with a Mark III containment (Grand Gulf, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally low relative to previous studies; for example, most of the uncertainty range is lower than the point estimate of risk for the Peach Bottom plant in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues cause the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. These issues include the diesel generator failure rate, iodine and cesium revolatilization after vessel breach and the possibility of reactor vessel pedestal failure caused by core debris attack. Some of the postulated safety options appear to be potentially cost effective for the Grand Gulf power plant, particularly when onsite accidents costs are included in the evaluation of benefits. Principally these include procedural modifications and relatively inexpensive hardware additions to insure core cooling in the event of a station blackout. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150. (author)

Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

OpenAIRE

Pol, van der, T.D.

2015-01-01

Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies. Chapter 2 provides an overview of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of flood risk management strategies under climate change uncertainty and new information. CBA is applied to determine optimal dike height...

Reduction of cancer risk by optimization of Computed Tomography head protocols: far eastern Cuban experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller Clemente, R.; Adame Brooks, D.; Lores Guevara, M.; Perez Diaz, M.; Arias Garlobo, M. L.; Ortega Rodriguez, O.; Nepite Haber, R.; Grinnan Hernandez, O.; Guillama Llosas, A.

2015-01-01

The cancer risk estimation constitutes one way for the evaluation of the public health, regarding computed tomography (CT) exposures. Starting from the hypothesis that the optimization of CT protocols would reduce significantly the added cancer risk, the purpose of this research was the application of optimization strategies regarding head CT protocols, in order to reduce the factors affecting the risk of induced cancer. The applied systemic approach included technological and human components, represented by quantitative physical factors. the volumetric kerma indexes, compared with respect to standard, optimized and reference values, were evaluated with multiple means comparison method. The added cancer risk resulted from the application of the methodology for biological effects evaluation, at low doses with low Linear Energy Transfer. Human observers in all scenarios evaluated the image quality. the reduced dose was significantly lower than for standard head protocols and reference levels, where: (1) for pediatric patients, by using an Automatic Exposure Control system, a reduction of 31% compared with standard protocol and ages range of 10-14, and (2) adults, using a Bilateral Filter for images obtained at low doses of 62% from those of standard head protocol. The risk reduction was higher than 25%. The systemic approach used allows the effective identification of factors involved on cancer risk related with exposures to CT. The combination of dose modulation and image restoration with Bilateral Filter, provide a significantly reduction of cancer risk, with acceptable diagnostic image quality. (Author)

GEO activities towards improved Geophysical monitoring. A key input to Disaster Risk Reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Achache, J.; Rum, G.

2007-05-01

GEO has been established in 2005 with the main objective to put in place a Global, Coordinated, Comprehensive and Sustained System of Observing Systems (GEOSS) to serve 9 Social Benefit Areas, among which Disaster Risk Reduction. The paper will first set up the reference GEO framework, through a brief description of GEOSS key features, architectural functions and capacity building, and then will recall the value of the Geophysical observations, coming both from in situ and remote (satellite) systems, and, even more important, of their integration. GEO activities related to Geophysical monitoring and the use of related observation to foster social benefits in the Disaster Risk Reduction area will then be shortly described, together with the on-going key actions, including specific examples on key scientific/technical and data sharing aspects associated to GEOSS implementation. Special attention will be devoted on how Capacity Building strategy and activities are addressed through GEOSS development, building on infrastructure and programs under consolidation within GEO framework, such as the GEOSS Information collection and dissemination systems under development (GEONETCast, GEO Web Portal, GEO Clearinghouse) and the UN programs such as SPIDER (SPace based Information for Disaster management and Emergency Response) and UNOSAT. The paper will provide recommendations on the way forward for the implementation of Disaster Risk Management provisions as an integral part of sustainable development, also with the objective of creating within GEO a supporting framework to UNDP and World Bank activities on Risk Identification and Assessment.

Long-Term International Space Station (ISS) Risk Reduction Activities

Science.gov (United States)

Fodroci, M. P.; Gafka, G. K.; Lutomski, M. G.; Maher, J. S.

2012-01-01

As the assembly of the ISS nears completion, it is worthwhile to step back and review some of the actions pursued by the Program in recent years to reduce risk and enhance the safety and health of ISS crewmembers, visitors, and space flight participants. While the initial ISS requirements and design were intended to provide the best practicable levels of safety, it is always possible to further reduce risk - given the determination, commitment, and resources to do so. The following is a summary of some of the steps taken by the ISS Program Manager, by our International Partners, by hardware and software designers, by operational specialists, and by safety personnel to continuously enhance the safety of the ISS, and to reduce risk to all crewmembers. While years of work went into the development of ISS requirements, there are many things associated with risk reduction in a Program like the ISS that can only be learned through actual operational experience. These risk reduction activities can be divided into roughly three categories: Areas that were initially noncompliant which have subsequently been brought into compliance or near compliance (i.e., Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris [MMOD] protection, acoustics) Areas where initial design requirements were eventually considered inadequate and were subsequently augmented (i.e., Toxicity Hazard Level- 4 [THL] materials, emergency procedures, emergency equipment, control of drag-throughs) Areas where risks were initially underestimated, and have subsequently been addressed through additional mitigation (i.e., Extravehicular Activity [EVA] sharp edges, plasma shock hazards) Due to the hard work and cooperation of many parties working together across the span of more than a decade, the ISS is now a safer and healthier environment for our crew, in many cases exceeding the risk reduction targets inherent in the intent of the original design. It will provide a safe and stable platform for utilization and discovery for years

Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Duží, B.; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, R.; Jakubínský, J.

2015-01-01

Roč. 20, č. 4 (2015), s. 499-504 ISSN 1381-2386 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : flood risk reduction * household adaptation * Czech Republic Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

Eighteenth annual risk reduction engineering laboratory research symposium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

The Eighteenth Annual Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory Research Symposium was held in Cincinnati, Ohio, April 14-16, 1992. The purpose of this Symposium was to present the latest significant research findings from ongoing and recently completed projects funded by the Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory (RREL). These Proceedings are organized into two sections. Sessions A and B, which contain extended abstracts of the paper presentations. A list of poster displays is also included. Subjects include remedial action, treatment, and control technologies for waste disposal, landfill liner and cover systems, underground storage tanks, and demonstration and development of innovative/alternative treatment technologies for hazardous waste. Alternative technology subjects include thermal destruction of hazardous wastes, field evaluations, existing treatment options, emerging treatment processes, waste minimization, and biosystems for hazardous waste destruction

Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Duží, B.; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, R.; Jakubínský, J.

2015-01-01

Roč. 20, č. 4 (2015), s. 499-504 ISSN 1381-2386 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : flood risk reduction * household adaptation * Czech Republic Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

Failure detection system risk reduction assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Aguilar, Robert B. (Inventor); Huang, Zhaofeng (Inventor)

2012-01-01

A process includes determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.

Immediate Antiretroviral Therapy Reduces Risk of Infection-Related Cancer During Early HIV Infection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borges, Alvaro Humberto Diniz; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Babiker, Abdel G

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND:  In the Strategic Timing of Antiretroviral Treatment (START) study, immediate combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiation reduced cancer risk by 64%. We hypothesized that risk reduction was higher for infection-related cancer and determined by differences in CD4 cell counts a...

The impact of parent involvement in an effective adolescent risk reduction intervention on sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Koci, Veronica; Lunn, Sonja

2014-12-01

Parent involvement in prevention efforts targeting adolescents increases the impact of such programs. However, the majority of risk-reduction intervention programs that are implemented through schools do not include parents, in part because most existing parental interventions require significant time commitment by parents. We designed a brief parent-adolescent sexual risk communication intervention to be delivered with an effective HIV prevention intervention as part of a randomized, controlled trial among 2,564 grade 10 students and their parents in the Bahamas. Mixed effects modeling analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of the brief parent-adolescent communication intervention using four waves of longitudinal data. Results indicate that a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention is effective in improving parent-adolescent communication on sex-related issues and perceived parental monitoring as well as the youth's condom use skills and self-efficacy. There is a marginal effect on consistent condom use. In addition, there is an apparent dose effect of the brief parent intervention on perceived parent-adolescent sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes. These findings suggest that adolescent risk reduction interventions should include a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention that should be reinforced by periodic boosters in order to enhance the impact of adolescent HIV prevention programs.

Microenterprise development interventions for sexual risk reduction: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Rosa R; Lee, Ramon; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Muessig, Kathryn E; Tucker, Joseph D

2013-11-01

Comprehensive interventions that address both individual and structural determinants associated with HIV/STI risk are gaining increasing attention over the past decade. Microenterprise development offers an appealing model for HIV prevention by addressing poverty and gender equality. This study systematically reviewed the effects of microenterprise development interventions on HIV/STI incidence and sexual risk behaviors. Microenterprise development was defined as developing small business capacity among individuals to alleviate poverty. Seven eligible research studies representing five interventions were identified and included in this review. All of the studies targeted women, and three focused on sex workers. None measured biomarker outcomes. All three sex worker studies showed significant reduction in sexual risk behaviors when compared to the control group. Non-sex worker studies showed limited changes in sexual risk behavior. This review indicates the potential utility of microenterprise development in HIV risk reduction programs. More research is needed to determine how microenterprise development can be effectively incorporated in comprehensive HIV control strategies.

Incentivising flood risk adaptation through ris based insurance premiums: trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hudson, P.G.M.B.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

2016-01-01

The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

Estimating the Value of Price Risk Reduction in Energy Efficiency Investments in Buildings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pekka Tuominen

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a method for calculating the value of price risk reduction to a consumer that can be achieved with investments in energy efficiency. The value of price risk reduction is discussed to some length in general terms in the literature reviewed but, so far, no methodology for calculating the value has been presented. Here we suggest such a method. The problem of valuating price risk reduction is approached using a variation of the Black–Scholes model by considering a hypothetical financial instrument that a consumer would purchase to insure herself against unexpected price hikes. This hypothetical instrument is then compared with an actual energy efficiency investment that reaches the same level of price risk reduction. To demonstrate the usability of the method, case examples are calculated for typical single-family houses in Finland. The results show that the price risk entailed in household energy consumption can be reduced by a meaningful amount with energy efficiency investments, and that the monetary value of this reduction can be calculated. It is argued that this often-overlooked benefit of energy efficiency investments merits more consideration in future studies.

Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

Science.gov (United States)

Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

2015-03-01

This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

Pengaruh Brand Credibility Terhadap Information Efficiency Dan Risk Reduction, Serta Dampaknya Atas Repurchase Intention

OpenAIRE

Faisal, Aekram

2015-01-01

This research conducted to know the influence of Brand Credibility to Information efficiency and Risk reduction, also the influence of Information efficiency and Risk reduction to Repurchase intention. This research aimed to know the influence of Brand Credibility to Repurchase intention that mediated by Information efficiency and Risk reduction. The methodology of this research is testing hypothesis research. The sample collecting by questionnaire of 150 respondents from Starb...

Recovery of Work-Related Stress: Complaint Reduction and Work-Resumption are Relatively Independent Processes.

Science.gov (United States)

de Vente, Wieke; Kamphuis, Jan Henk; Blonk, Roland W B; Emmelkamp, Paul M G

2015-09-01

The process of recovery from work-related stress, consisting of complaint reduction and work-resumption, is not yet fully understood. The aim of this study was to investigate predictors of complaint reduction and work-resumption, as well as testing complaint reduction as a mediator in the association between predictors and work-resumption. Seventy-one patients on sickness-leave because of work-related stress complaints were followed over a period of 13 months. Predictors comprised personal (demographics, coping, cognitions), work-related (job-characteristics, social support), and illness-related (complaint duration, absence duration) variables. Dependent variables were distress complaints, burnout complaints, and work-resumption. Complaints reduced considerably over time to borderline clinical levels and work-resumption increased to 68% at 13 months. Predictors of stronger reduction of distress complaints were male gender, less working hours, less decision authority, more co-worker support, and shorter absence duration. Predictors of stronger reduction of burnout complaints were male gender, lower age, high education, less avoidant coping, less decision authority, more job security, and more co-worker support. Predictors of work-resumption were lower age and stronger reduction of burnout complaints. No indication for a mediating role of burnout complaints between the predictor age and work-resumption was found. Complaint reduction and work-resumption are relatively independent processes. Symptom reduction is influenced by individual and work-related characteristics, which holds promise for a multidisciplinary treatment approach for work-related stress.

Introduction to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction measures in energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-07-01

The aim of this report is to introduce readers to methods of cost-effectiveness analysis and their application in risk reduction, especially in connection with the energy-producing industries. The background to the assessment of risk and the problems in estimating it quantitatively are outlined. The methodology of cost-effectiveness analysis is then described, particular attention being given to the way in which results are derived and the overall use that can be made of them. This is followed by a discussion of quantitative applications and an outline of the methods that may be used to derive estimates both of risk and the cost of reducing it. The use of cost-effectiveness analysis is illustrated in an appendix, which gives as a worked example a case study on the reduction of public risk associated with radioactive releases during normal operation of a PWR. After drawing some general conclusions the report recommends that such analyses should normally be used as an aid to risk management whenever several alternative risk reduction measures are under consideration

Assessment of aircraft risk reduction at Pantex Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Y.T.; Hedtke, R.; Fike, D.; Diniz, J.

1996-01-01

The possibility of an aircraft crashing into the Department of Energy's (DOE) Pantex plant facility has been of concern in risk assessments. In response to public concerns, and in an effort to reduce risks associated with overflights of Pantex, several changes to navigational aids at Amarillo International Airport have been implemented. For over one year, a radar airspace monitor and recording system has been connected to the airport surveillance radar at Amarillo to record the flight paths, aircraft types, and traffic density of aircraft in the vicinity of the Pantex plant. The data has provided a better understanding of the overflight risk at Pantex as well as a means to measure the effectiveness of risk reduction efforts

Synergising Public Health Concepts with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: A Conceptual Glossary.

Science.gov (United States)

Phibbs, Suzanne; Kenney, Christine; Severinsen, Christina; Mitchell, Jon; Hughes, Roger

2016-12-14

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015) is a global strategy for addressing disaster risk and resilience that has been ratified by member countries of the United Nations. Its guiding principles emphasise building resilience through inter-sectoral collaboration, as well as partnerships that facilitate community empowerment and address underlying risk factors. Both public health and the emergency management sector face similar challenges related to developing and implementing strategies that involve structural change, facilitating community resilience and addressing individual risk factors. Familiarity with public health principles enables an understanding of the holistic approach to risk reduction that is outlined within the Sendai Framework. We present seven concepts that resonate with contemporary public health practice, namely: the social determinants of health; inequality and inequity; the inverse care law; community-based and community development approaches; hard to reach communities and services; the prevention paradox; and the inverse prevention law. These ideas from public health provide a useful conceptual base for the "new" agenda in disaster risk management that underpins the 2015 Sendai Framework. The relevance of these ideas to disaster risk management and research is illustrated through drawing on the Sendai Framework, disaster literature and exemplars from the 2010-2011 earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand.

Synergising Public Health Concepts with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: A Conceptual Glossary

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suzanne Phibbs

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015 is a global strategy for addressing disaster risk and resilience that has been ratified by member countries of the United Nations. Its guiding principles emphasise building resilience through inter-sectoral collaboration, as well as partnerships that facilitate community empowerment and address underlying risk factors. Both public health and the emergency management sector face similar challenges related to developing and implementing strategies that involve structural change, facilitating community resilience and addressing individual risk factors. Familiarity with public health principles enables an understanding of the holistic approach to risk reduction that is outlined within the Sendai Framework. We present seven concepts that resonate with contemporary public health practice, namely: the social determinants of health; inequality and inequity; the inverse care law; community-based and community development approaches; hard to reach communities and services; the prevention paradox; and the inverse prevention law. These ideas from public health provide a useful conceptual base for the ”new” agenda in disaster risk management that underpins the 2015 Sendai Framework. The relevance of these ideas to disaster risk management and research is illustrated through drawing on the Sendai Framework, disaster literature and exemplars from the 2010–2011 earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand.

Valuing Drinking Water Risk Reductions Using the Contingent Valuation Method: A Methodological Study of Risks from THM and Giardia (1986)

Science.gov (United States)

This study develops contingent valuation methods for measuring the benefits of mortality and morbidity drinking water risk reductions. The major effort was devoted to developing and testing a survey instrument to value low-level risk reductions.

Reduction of work-related musculoskeletal risk factors following ergonomics education of sewing machine operators.

Science.gov (United States)

Bulduk, Sıdıka; Bulduk, Emre Özgür; Süren, Tufan

2017-09-01

Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) are a major hazard for sewing machine operators. Ergonomics education is recommended for reducing musculoskeletal disorders at workstations. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of an ergonomics education in reducing the exposure to risk factors for WMSDs among sewing machine operators. In this study of 278 workers, their exposure to the risk of WMSDs was assessed using the quick exposure check scale prior to them attending an ergonomics education programme and then again 3 months after the programme. The scores for risk exposure before the education programme were moderate for back (static) and back (dynamic), high for shoulder/arm and very high for wrist/hand and neck. The results obtained 3 months later were low for back (static) and shoulder/arm, and moderate for back (dynamic), wrist/hand and neck. Based on our results, ergonomics education can reduce the exposure to risk factors for WMSDs in the workplace.

Integrated methodology for production related risk management of vehicle electronics (IMPROVE)

OpenAIRE

Geis, Stefan Rafael

2006-01-01

This scientific work is designated to provide an innovative and integrated conceptional approach to improve the assembly quality of automotive electronics. This is achieved by the reduction and elimination of production related risks of automotive electronics and the implementation of a sustainable solution process. The focus is the development and implementation of an integrated technical risk management approach for automotive electronics throughout the vehicle life cycle and the vehicle pr...

Decreasing Relative Risk Premium

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Frank

relative risk premium in the small implies decreasing relative risk premium in the large, and decreasing relative risk premium everywhere implies risk aversion. We finally show that preferences with decreasing relative risk premium may be equivalently expressed in terms of certain preferences on risky......We consider the risk premium demanded by a decision maker with wealth x in order to be indifferent between obtaining a new level of wealth y1 with certainty, or to participate in a lottery which either results in unchanged present wealth or a level of wealth y2 > y1. We define the relative risk...... premium as the quotient between the risk premium and the increase in wealth y1–x which the decision maker puts on the line by choosing the lottery in place of receiving y1 with certainty. We study preferences such that the relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine...

POTENTIAL HEALTH RISK REDUCTION ARISING FROM REDUCED MERCURY EMISSIONS FROM COAL FIRED POWER PLANTS.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, T. M.; Lipfert, F. W.; Morris, S. C.; Moskowitz, P. D.

2001-09-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has announced plans to regulate mercury (Hg) emissions from coal-fired power plants. EPA has not prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. To address this issue, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) with support from the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy (DOE FE) prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in human health risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. The primary pathway for Hg exposure is through consumption of fish. The most susceptible population to Hg exposure is the fetus. Therefore the risk assessment focused on consumption of fish by women of child-bearing age. Dose response factors were generated from studies on loss of cognitive abilities (language skills, motor skills, etc.) by young children whose mothers consumed large amounts of fish with high Hg levels. Population risks were estimated for the general population in three regions of the country, (the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast) that were identified by EPA as being heavily impacted by coal emissions. Three scenarios for reducing Hg emissions from coal plants were considered: (1) A base case using current conditions; (2) A 50% reduction; and, (3) A 90% reduction. These reductions in emissions were assumed to translate linearly into a reduction in fish Hg levels of 8.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Population risk estimates were also calculated for two subsistence fisher populations. These groups of people consume substantially more fish than the general public and, depending on location, the fish may contain higher Hg levels than average. Risk estimates for these groups were calculated for the three Hg levels used for the general population analyses. Analysis shows that the general population risks for exposure of the fetus to Hg are small. Estimated risks under current conditions (i.e., no

Identifying mismatches between institutional perceptions of water-related risk drivers and water management strategies in three river basin areas

Science.gov (United States)

Räsänen, Aleksi; Juhola, Sirkku; Monge Monge, Adrián; Käkönen, Mira; Kanninen, Markku; Nygren, Anja

2017-07-01

Water-related risks and vulnerabilities are driven by variety of stressors, including climate and land use change, as well as changes in socio-economic positions and political landscapes. Hence, water governance, which addresses risks and vulnerabilities, should target multiple stressors. We analyze the institutional perceptions of the drivers and strategies for managing water-related risks and vulnerabilities in three regionally important river basin areas located in Finland, Mexico, and Laos. Our analysis is based on data gathered through participatory workshops and complemented by qualitative content analysis of relevant policy documents. The identified drivers and proposed risk reduction strategies showed the multidimensionality and context-specificity of water-related risks and vulnerabilities across study areas. Most of the identified drivers were seen to increase risks, but some of the drivers were positive trends, and drivers also included also policy instruments that can both increase or decrease risks. Nevertheless, all perceived drivers were not addressed with suggested risk reduction strategies. In particular, most of the risk reduction strategies were incremental adjustments, although many of the drivers classified as most important were large-scale trends, such as climate change, land use changes and increase in foreign investments. We argue that there is a scale mismatch between the identified drivers and suggested strategies, which questions the opportunity to manage the drivers by single-scale incremental adjustments. Our study suggests that for more sustainable risk and vulnerability reduction, the root causes of water-related risks and vulnerabilities should be addressed through adaptive multi-scale governance that carefully considers the context-specificity and the multidimensionality of the associated drivers and stressors.

Indigenous knowledge for disaster risk reduction: An African perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nnamdi G. Iloka

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Indigenous knowledge is valuable knowledge that has helped local communities all over the world survive for generations. This knowledge originates from the interaction between members of the community and the environment in which they live. Although much has been written about indigenous knowledge, its documentation in the area of disaster risk reduction and climate change in Africa has been very limited. The wealth of this knowledge has not been well-recognised in the disaster risk reduction field, as policy-makers still rely on mitigation strategies based on scientific knowledge. Colonialism and lack of proper documentation of indigenous knowledge are some of the contributing factors to this. Ignoring the importance of understanding adaptive strategies of the local people has led to failed projects. Understanding how local people in Africa have managed to survive and adapt for generations, before the arrival of Western education, may be the key to developing sustainable policies to mitigate future challenges. Literature used in this article, obtained from the books, papers and publications of various experts in the fields of disaster risk reduction, climate change, indigenous knowledge and adaptation, highlight the need for more interest to be shown in indigenous knowledge, especially in the developing country context. This would lead to better strategies which originate from the community level but would aim for overall sustainable development in Africa.

Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

2006-03-01

For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

Closed reduction of slipped capital femoral epiphysis: high-risk factor for avascular necrosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kitano, Toshio; Nakagawa, Keisuke; Wada, Mayuko; Moriyama, Michiko

2015-07-01

How should we treat acute/unstable slipped capital femoral epiphysis (SCFE) without the development of avascular necrosis (AVN)? To answer this question, we investigated the risk factors of AVN development after SCFE. Seventy-six hips of 64 patients were classified using two kinds of classification systems, Loder's classification based on instability and the conventional classification based on the duration of symptom, because both classifications are related to AVN development. Of 21 unstable SCFEs, seven hips developed AVN. Of 35 hips defined as acute or acute on chronic, nine hips developed AVN. Two stable SCFEs of Loder's classification developed AVN, one was acute and the other was acute on chronic. No hips of chronic SCFE developed AVN. The factor that had influenced AVN development was only closed reduction, whether purposefully or inadvertently, in an acute or unstable SCFE. On the basis of the findings of this study, one should not embark on any modality of closed reduction for an unstable or acute form of SCFE, as there is a high risk for occurrence of AVN. For the same reason, a traction table should not be used for SCFE fixation, so as to avoid an inadvertent reduction or force that can lead to AVN.

The role of service learning in teaching and research for disaster-risk reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Suckale, J.; Saiyed, Z.; Alvisyahrin, T.; Hilley, G. E.; Muhari, A.; Zoback, M. L. C.; Truebe, S.

2016-12-01

An important motivation for natural-hazards research is to reduce threats posed by natural disasters to at-risk communities. Yet, we rarely teach students how research may be used to construct implementable solutions that reduce disaster risk. The goal of this contribution is to evaluate the potential of service learning to impart students with both the scientific background and the skills necessary to navigate real-world constraints of disaster risk reduction. We present results from a service-learning class taught at Stanford in the Winter quarter of 2016 in collaboration with the Indonesian Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries and Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh. The main deliverable of the class was a final project in which students developed a specific idea of how to contribute to tsunami-risk reduction in Indonesia. A common critique of the service-learning approach posits that it may implicitly embed social and political perspectives within risk-reduction strategies that may be inappropriate within a particular culture. We attempted to avoid this problem using three strategies: First, we paired students from Stanford with students at Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, to facilitate a close dialogue. Second, the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries provided a list of current risk-reduction strategies without requiring students to contribute to one specific project to minimally precondition project suggestions. Third, our community partners provided ongoing feedback on the scope and feasibility of the proposed projects and students were assessed based on their ability to integrate the feedback. Preliminary results from our class suggest significant promise for a service-learning approach to teaching disaster-risk reduction. There was substantial student interest in service learning, particularly among undergraduates. Pre-and post-assessment surveys showed that over 75% of students adjusted previous notions about disaster-risk reduction during the

Governance of disaster risk reduction in Cameroon: The need to empower local government

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Henry N. Bang

2013-02-01

Full Text Available The impact of natural hazards and/or disasters in Cameroon continues to hit local communities hardest, but local government lacks the ability to manage disaster risks adequately. This is partly due to the fact that the necessity to mainstream disaster risk reduction into local governance and development practices is not yet an underlying principle of Cameroon’s disaster management framework. Using empirical and secondary data, this paper analyses the governance of disaster risks in Cameroon with particular focus on the challenges local government faces in implementing disaster risk reduction strategies. The hypothesis is that the governance of disaster risks is too centralised at the national level, with huge implications for the effective governance of disaster risks at the local level. Although Cameroon has reinvigorated efforts to address growing disaster risks in a proactive way, it is argued that the practical actions are more reactive than proactive in nature. The overall aim is to explore the challenges and opportunities that local government has in the governance of disaster risks. Based on the findings from this research, policy recommendations are suggested on ways to mainstream disaster risk reduction strategies into local governance, and advance understanding and practice in the local governance of disaster risks in the country.

Mapping Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: progress in South Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Storie, Judith M.

2018-05-01

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) strategies in Africa are on the increase. South Africa is no different, and a number of strategies have seen the light in aid of reducing disaster risk and adapting to cli-mate change. The DRR and CCA processes include the mapping of location and extent of known and potential hazards, vulnerable communities and environments, and opportunities that may exist to manage these risks. However, the mapping of often fast-changing urban and rural spaces in a standardized manner presents challenges that relate to processes, scales of data capture, level of detail recorded, software and compatibility related to data formats and net-works, human resources skills and understanding, as well as differences in approaches to the nature in which the map-ping processes are executed and spatial data is managed. As a result, projects and implementation of strategies that re-late to the use of such data is affected, and the success of activities based on the data may therefore be uncertain. This paper investigates data custodianship and data categories that is processed and managed across South Africa. It explores the process and content management of disaster risk and climate change related information and defines the challenges that exist in terms of governance. The paper also comments on the challenges and potential solutions for the situation as it gives rise to varying degrees of accuracy, effectiveness for use, and applicability of the spatial data available to affect DRR and improve the value of CCA programmes in the region.

Copper increases reductive dehalogenation of haloacetamides by zero-valent iron in drinking water: Reduction efficiency and integrated toxicity risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Wenhai; Li, Xin; Bond, Tom; Gao, Naiyun; Bin, Xu; Wang, Qiongfang; Ding, Shunke

2016-12-15

The haloacetamides (HAcAms), an emerging class of nitrogen-containing disinfection byproducts (N-DBPs), are highly cytotoxic and genotoxic, and typically occur in treated drinking waters at low μg/L concentrations. Since many drinking distribution and storage systems contain unlined cast iron and copper pipes, reactions of HAcAms with zero-valent iron (ZVI) and metallic copper (Cu) may play a role in determining their fate. Moreover, ZVI and/or Cu are potentially effective HAcAm treatment technologies in drinking water supply and storage systems. This study reports that ZVI alone reduces trichloroacetamide (TCAcAm) to sequentially form dichloroacetamide (DCAcAm) and then monochloroacetamide (MCAcAm), whereas Cu alone does not impact HAcAm concentrations. The addition of Cu to ZVI significantly improved the removal of HAcAms, relative to ZVI alone. TCAcAm and their reduction products (DCAcAm and MCAcAm) were all decreased to below detection limits at a molar ratio of ZVI/Cu of 1:1 after 24 h reaction (ZVI/TCAcAm = 0.18 M/5.30 μM). TCAcAm reduction increased with the decreasing pH from 8.0 to 5.0, but values from an integrated toxic risk assessment were minimised at pH 7.0, due to limited removal MCAcAm under weak acid conditions (pH = 5.0 and 6.0). Higher temperatures (40 °C) promoted the reductive dehalogenation of HAcAms. Bromine was preferentially removed over chlorine, thus brominated HAcAms were more easily reduced than chlorinated HAcAms by ZVI/Cu. Although tribromoacetamide was more easily reduced than TCAcAm during ZVI/Cu reduction, treatment of tribromoacetamide resulted in a higher integrated toxicity risk than TCAcAm, due to the formation of monobromoacetamide (MBAcAm). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suicide risk reduction in youths with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder prescribed methylphenidate: A Taiwan nationwide population-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Sophie Hsin-Yi; Yang, Yao-Hsu; Kuo, Ting-Yu; Liao, Yin-To; Lin, Tzu-Chin; Lee, Yena; McIntyre, Roger S; Kelsen, Brent A; Wang, Tsu-Nai; Chen, Vincent Chin-Hung

2018-01-01

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) youths have increased suicide risk. Nevertheless, the beneficial effects of methylphenidate (MPH) on suicide attempt have received relatively little attention. To investigate the MPH usage and the risk of suicide attempt among ADHD youths. We identified 84,898 youths less than 18 years old with ADHD diagnosis between 1997 and 2013 from National Health Insurance, and examined whether MPH use affected suicide attempt risk using Cox proportional-hazards models. Among ADHD youths, reduction of suicide risk was found in patients prescribed 90-180days of MPH after adjusting for confounding factors (hazard ratio (HR): 0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.19-0.90) and a greater reduction in those prescribed more than 180days of MPH (HR: 0.28, 95% CI: 0.17-0.48). We observed a 59% suicide attempt risk reduction among ADHD youths prescribed between 90 and 180days and a 72% risk reduction in those prescribed more than 180days of MPH. The protective benefit observed by the group prescribed MPH for longer duration underscores the importance of psychoeducation and compliance enhancement as part of ADHD management. Indication bias is identified as a limitation of this study, and future self-case control study to investigate the association between suicide attempt and ADHD medication is suggested. This nationwide population-based cohort study showed that among ADHD youths, reduction of suicide risk was observed in patients prescribed MPH for duration 90days and longer, underscoring the importance of appropriate ADHD pharmacotherapy and enhancing drug compliance. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Differential Effects of Social Media Sites for Promoting Cancer Risk Reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Lauckner, Carolyn; Whitten, Pamela

2016-09-01

Social media are potentially valuable tools for disseminating cancer education messages, but the differential effects of various sites on persuasive outcomes are unknown. In an effort to inform future health promotion, this research tested the effects of Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and blogs for delivering a cancer risk reduction message. Using an experimental design, participants were randomly placed in several conditions that delivered the same message but with different forms of social media. Effects on comprehension and attitudes were examined, as they are important variables in the behavior change process. YouTube led to higher comprehension and stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction than Twitter, but there were no differences between other sites. Additionally, YouTube led to stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction as compared to Facebook, but not any other sites. These results demonstrate that, even if the message is kept constant, the form of social media used to deliver content can have an effect on persuasive outcomes. More research is needed to determine the mechanisms behind the differences found, however. Altogether, this line of research is valuable for any individuals seeking to use social media for health promotion purposes and could have direct implications for the development of cancer risk reduction campaigns.

A comparison of mantle versus involved-field radiotherapy for Hodgkin's lymphoma: reduction in normal tissue dose and second cancer risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koh, Eng-Siew; Paul, Narinder; Hodgson, David C; Tran, Tu Huan; Heydarian, Mostafa; Sachs, Rainer K; Tsang, Richard W; Brenner, David J; Pintilie, Melania; Xu, Tony; Chung, June

2007-01-01

Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) survivors who undergo radiotherapy experience increased risks of second cancers (SC) and cardiac sequelae. To reduce such risks, extended-field radiotherapy (RT) for HL has largely been replaced by involved field radiotherapy (IFRT). While it has generally been assumed that IFRT will reduce SC risks, there are few data that quantify the reduction in dose to normal tissues associated with modern RT practice for patients with mediastinal HL, and no estimates of the expected reduction in SC risk. Organ-specific dose-volume histograms (DVH) were generated for 41 patients receiving 35 Gy mantle RT, 35 Gy IFRT, or 20 Gy IFRT, and integrated organ mean doses were compared for the three protocols. Organ-specific SC risk estimates were estimated using a dosimetric risk-modeling approach, analyzing DVH data with quantitative, mechanistic models of radiation-induced cancer. Dose reductions resulted in corresponding reductions in predicted excess relative risks (ERR) for SC induction. Moving from 35 Gy mantle RT to 35 Gy IFRT reduces predicted ERR for female breast and lung cancer by approximately 65%, and for male lung cancer by approximately 35%; moving from 35 Gy IFRT to 20 Gy IFRT reduces predicted ERRs approximately 40% more. The median reduction in integral dose to the whole heart with the transition to 35 Gy IFRT was 35%, with a smaller (2%) reduction in dose to proximal coronary arteries. There was no significant reduction in thyroid dose. The significant decreases estimated for radiation-induced SC risks associated with modern IFRT provide strong support for the use of IFRT to reduce the late effects of treatment. The approach employed here can provide new insight into the risks associated with contemporary IFRT for HL, and may facilitate the counseling of patients regarding the risks associated with this treatment

Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

2003-01-01

The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power plants: What have we learned from experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lochard, J.; Pages, P.

1984-01-01

Within the field of risk management techniques, cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction is now recognized as an adequate method for evaluating and defining the optimal allocation of protection and safety resources within large industrial systems. The paper considers some of the issues that arise in connection with cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power stations. Particular attention is called to both the interdependence between criteria that characterize risk reduction problems and the resulting aggregation and weighting procedures needed when the multidimensionality of criteria is explicitly taken into account. The discussion of these problems is illustrated with results of case studies on both public and occupational risk reduction at French PWRs during normal operation. (author)

Parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Southern Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Per Becker

2013-01-01

Full Text Available During the last decade, the interest of the international community in the concepts of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation has been growing immensely. Even though an increasing number of scholars seem to view these concepts as two sides of the same coin (at least when not considering the potentially positive effects of climate change, in practice the two concepts have developed in parallel rather than in an integrated manner when it comes to policy, rhetoric and funding opportunities amongst international organisations and donors. This study investigates the extent of the creation of parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Southern African Development Community (SADC region. The chosen methodology for the study is a comparative case study and the data are collected through focus groups and content analysis of documentary sources, as well as interviews with key informants. The results indicate that parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have been established in all but one of the studied countries. The qualitative interviews performed in some of the countries indicate that stakeholders in disaster risk reduction view this duplication of structures as unfortunate, inefficient and a fertile setup for conflict over resources for the implementation of similar activities. Additional research is called for in order to study the concrete effects of having these parallel structures as a foundation for advocacy for more efficient future disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lochard, J.; Maccia, C.; Pages, P.

1985-01-01

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction is now widely accepted as a rational analytical framework to consistently address the resource allocation problem underlying any risk management process. This paper presents how this technique can be usefully applied to complex systems such as the management of radioactive releases from nuclear power plants into the environment. (orig.) [de

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Versus Disaster Risk Creation (DRC)

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, James

2012-01-01

In understanding and trying to reduce the risk from disasters, connections are often articulated amongst poverty, vulnerability, risk, and disasters. These are welcome steps, but the approach taken in top-down international documents is rarely to articulate explicitly that vulnerability accrues from a wide variety of dynamic and long-term processes. Neglecting these processes—and failing to explore their links with poverty, risk, and disasters—tends to encourage disaster risk creation. This paper identifies seven examples of on-the-ground realities of long-term vulnerability within two clusters: Endangerment: 1 Environmental degradation. 2 Discrimination. 3 Displacement. Impoverishment: 4 Self-seeking public expenditure. 5 Denial of access to resources. 6 Corruption. 7 Siphoning of public money. Examples are presented as vignettes, many contemporary and many rooted in historical contexts, to demonstrate the extent to which “vulnerability drivers” emanate from greed, the misuse of political and commercial power, mismanagement and incompetence amongst other behaviours. Moving forward to the tackling of disaster risk creation, instead of simply seeking disaster risk reduction, requires detailed investigation into these contemporary and historical realities of the causes of vulnerability. That would support the integration of disaster risk reduction within the many wider contexts that foment and perpetuate vulnerability. PMID:22919564

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Versus Disaster Risk Creation (DRC).

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, James

2012-06-21

In understanding and trying to reduce the risk from disasters, connections are often articulated amongst poverty, vulnerability, risk, and disasters. These are welcome steps, but the approach taken in top-down international documents is rarely to articulate explicitly that vulnerability accrues from a wide variety of dynamic and long-term processes. Neglecting these processes-and failing to explore their links with poverty, risk, and disasters-tends to encourage disaster risk creation. This paper identifies seven examples of on-the-ground realities of long-term vulnerability within two clusters: Endangerment: 1 Environmental degradation. 2 Discrimination. 3 Displacement. Impoverishment: 4 Self-seeking public expenditure. 5 Denial of access to resources. 6 Corruption. 7 Siphoning of public money. Examples are presented as vignettes, many contemporary and many rooted in historical contexts, to demonstrate the extent to which "vulnerability drivers" emanate from greed, the misuse of political and commercial power, mismanagement and incompetence amongst other behaviours. Moving forward to the tackling of disaster risk creation, instead of simply seeking disaster risk reduction, requires detailed investigation into these contemporary and historical realities of the causes of vulnerability. That would support the integration of disaster risk reduction within the many wider contexts that foment and perpetuate vulnerability.

Ethical Responsibility of Governance for Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction with Development

Science.gov (United States)

Parkash Gupta, Surya

2015-04-01

The development in the public as well as the private sectors is controlled and regulated, directly or indirectly by the governments at federal, provincial and local levels. If this development goes haphazard and unplanned, without due considerations to environmental constraints and potential hazards; it is likely to cause disasters or may get affected by disasters. Therefore, it becomes an ethical responsibility of the people involved in governance sector to integrate disaster risk reduction with development in their administrative territories through enforcement of appropriate policies, guidelines and regulatory mechanisms. Such mechanisms should address the social, scientific, economic, environmental, and legal requirements that play significant role in planning, implementation of developmental activities as well as disaster management. The paper focuses on defining the ethical responsibilities for the governance sector for integrating disaster risk reduction with development. It highlights the ethical issues with examples from two case studies, one from the Uttarakhand state and the other Odhisa state in India. The case studies illustrates how does it make a difference in disaster risk reduction if the governments own or do not own ethical responsibilities. The paper considers two major disaster events, flash floods in Uttarakhand state and Cyclone Phailin in Odhisa state, that happened during the year 2013. The study points out that it makes a great difference in terms of consequences and response to disasters when ethical responsibilities are owned by the governance sector. The papers attempts to define these ethical responsibilities for integrating disaster risk reduction with development so that the governments can be held accountable for their acts or non-actions.

Smartphone Delivery of Mobile HIV Risk Reduction Education.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Karran A; Epstein, David H; Mezghanni, Mustapha; Vahabzadeh, Massoud; Reamer, David; Agage, Daniel; Preston, Kenzie L

2013-01-01

We sought to develop and deploy a video-based smartphone-delivered mobile HIV Risk Reduction (mHIVRR) intervention to individuals in an addiction treatment clinic. We developed 3 video modules that consisted of a 10-minute HIVRR video, 11 acceptability questions, and 3 knowledge questions and deployed them as a secondary study within a larger study of ecological momentary and geographical momentary assessments. All 24 individuals who remained in the main study long enough completed the mHIVRR secondary study. All 3 videos met our a priori criteria for acceptability "as is" in the population: they achieved median scores of ≤2.5 on a 5-point Likert scale; ≤20% of the individuals gave them the most negative rating on the scale; a majority of the individuals stated that they would not prefer other formats over video-based smartphone-delivered one (all P smartphone is acceptable, feasible and may increase HIV/STD risk reduction knowledge. Future studies, with pre-intervention assessments of knowledge and random assignment, are needed to confirm these findings.

Constructing a holistic approach to disaster risk reduction: the significance of focusing on vulnerability reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Palliyaguru, Roshani; Amaratunga, Dilanthi; Baldry, David

2014-01-01

As a result of the increase in natural disaster losses, policy-makers, practitioners, and members of the research community around the world are seeking effective and efficient means of overcoming or minimising them. Although various theoretical constructs are beneficial to understanding the disaster phenomenon and the means of minimising losses, the disaster risk management process becomes less effective if theory and practice are set apart from one another. Consequently, this paper seeks to establish a relationship between two theoretical constructs, 'disaster risk reduction (DRR)' and 'vulnerability reduction', and to develop a holistic approach to DRR with particular reference to improving its applicability in practical settings. It is based on a literature review and on an overall understanding gained through two case studies of post-disaster infrastructure reconstruction projects in Sri Lanka and three expert interviews in Sri Lanka and the United Kingdom. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

Farmers’ Willingness to Pay for Health Risk Reductions of Pesticide Use in China: A Contingent Valuation Study

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wenyu; Jin, Jianjun; He, Rui; Gong, Haozhou; Tian, Yuhong

2018-01-01

This study aimed to estimate farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for health risk reductions of pesticide use by applying the contingent valuation method (CVM) and to explore the factors that influence farmers’ WTP in China. In total, 244 farmers were randomly selected and interviewed. The mean WTP was estimated to be $65.38 (0.94% of total household income) per household per year for a 5/10,000 reduction in morbidity risk. This study shows that farmers’ socioeconomic and attitudinal factors that significantly affect their WTP include farmers’ farming income, education, household size and risk perceptions. In particular, the results demonstrate that respondents’ social trust, social reciprocity and social networks have significant impacts on their WTP. The findings of this study can provide useful insights for policy makers to design effective policies to address health problems related to pesticide use in the developing world. PMID:29596345

Farmers’ Willingness to Pay for Health Risk Reductions of Pesticide Use in China: A Contingent Valuation Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenyu Wang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to estimate farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP for health risk reductions of pesticide use by applying the contingent valuation method (CVM and to explore the factors that influence farmers’ WTP in China. In total, 244 farmers were randomly selected and interviewed. The mean WTP was estimated to be $65.38 (0.94% of total household income per household per year for a 5/10,000 reduction in morbidity risk. This study shows that farmers’ socioeconomic and attitudinal factors that significantly affect their WTP include farmers’ farming income, education, household size and risk perceptions. In particular, the results demonstrate that respondents’ social trust, social reciprocity and social networks have significant impacts on their WTP. The findings of this study can provide useful insights for policy makers to design effective policies to address health problems related to pesticide use in the developing world.

A Group Intervention for HIV/STI Risk Reduction among Indian Couples

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ritu Nehra

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Background: HIV in India is transmitted primarily by heterosexual contact. The present study sought to test the feasibility of a group HIV/STI risk reduction intervention among heterosexual couples in India. Methods: Focus groups and key informant interviews were used in 2008 to culturally tailor the intervention. Thirty sexually active and HIV/STI negative couples were enrolled and assessed regarding risk behavior and sexual barrier acceptability. Gender-concordant group sessions used cognitive behavioral strategies for HIV/STI prevention. Results: At baseline, male condom use was low (36%; no participants reported use of female condoms or vaginal gels. HIV knowledge was low; women had more HIV knowledge and more positive attitudes towards condom use than men. Post-intervention, willingness to use all barrier products (t = 10.0, P< .001 and intentions to avoid risk behavior increased (t = 5.62, P< .001. Conclusion: This study illustrates the feasibility of utilizing a group intervention to enhance HIV/STI risk reduction among Indian couples.

Sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Pandor, Abdullah; Kaltenthaler, Eva; Higgins, Agnes; Lorimer, Karen; Smith, Shubulade; Wylie, Kevan; Wong, Ruth

2015-02-12

Despite variability in sexual activity among people with severe mental illness, high-risk sexual behavior (e.g. unprotected intercourse, multiple partners, sex trade and illicit drug use) is common. Sexual health risk reduction interventions (such as educational and behavioral interventions, motivational exercises, counselling and service delivery), developed and implemented for people with severe mental illness, may improve participants' knowledge, attitudes, beliefs behaviors or practices (including assertiveness skills) and could lead to a reduction in risky sexual behavior. This systematic review evaluates the effectiveness of sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness. Thirteen electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycINFO) were searched to August 2014, and supplemented by hand-searching relevant articles and contacting experts. All controlled trials (randomized or non-randomized) comparing the effectiveness of sexual health risk reduction interventions with usual care for individuals living in the community with severe mental illness were included. Outcomes included a range of biological, behavioral and proxy endpoints. Narrative synthesis was used to combine the evidence. Thirteen controlled trials (all from the USA) were included. Although there was no clear and consistent evidence that interventions reduce the total number of sex partners or improved behavioral intentions in sexual risk behavior, positive effects were generally observed in condom use, condom protected intercourse and on measures of HIV knowledge, attitudes to condom use and sexual behaviors and practices. However, the robustness of these findings is low due to the large between study variability, small sample sizes and low-to-moderate quality of included studies. There is insufficient evidence at present to fully support or reject the identified sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness. Given the

Women Living with HIV in Rural Areas. Implementing a Response using the HIV and AIDS Risk Assessment and Reduction Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah Bandali

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The global fight against HIV is progressing; however, women living in rural areas particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA continue to face the devastating consequences of HIV and AIDS. Lack of knowledge and geographical barriers to HIV services are compounded by gender norms often limiting the negotiation of safe sexual practices among women living in rural areas. This paper discusses findings from a qualitative study conducted in rural areas of Mozambique examining factors that influenced women to engage in HIV risk-reduction practices. The findings from this study led to the emergence of an HIV and AIDS risk assessment and reduction (HARAR model, which is described in detail. The model helps in understanding gender-related factors influencing men and women to engage in risk-reduction practices, which can be used as a framework in other settings to design more nuanced and contextual policies and programs.

Update on procedure-related risks for prenatal diagnosis techniques

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tabor, Ann; Alfirevic, Zarko

2010-01-01

Introduction: As a consequence of the introduction of effective screening methods, the number of invasive prenatal diagnostic procedures is steadily declining. The aim of this review is to summarize the risks related to these procedures. Material and Methods: Review of the literature. Results: Data...... from randomised controlled trials as well as from systematic reviews and a large national registry study are consistent with a procedure-related miscarriage rate of 0.5-1.0% for amniocentesis as well as for chorionic villus sampling (CVS). In single-center studies performance may be remarkably good due...... not be performed before 15 + 0 weeks' gestation. CVS on the other hand should not be performed before 10 weeks' gestation due to a possible increase in risk of limb reduction defects. Discussion: Experienced operators have a higher success rate and a lower complication rate. The decreasing number of prenatal...

Farmers prone to drought risk : why some farmers undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures while others not?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gidey, T.G.; van der Veen, A.

2015-01-01

This research investigates farmers’ cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer

First Evaluation of a Contingency Management Intervention Addressing Adolescent Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors: Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Letourneau, Elizabeth J; McCart, Michael R; Sheidow, Ashli J; Mauro, Pia M

2017-01-01

There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N=45) or usual services (US; N=60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

We4DRR: A brand new European network for women in Disaster Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Papathoma-Koehle, Maria; Keiler, Margreth; Promper, Catrin; Patek, Maria

2017-04-01

Natural hazards often intensify societal inequalities having disproportionate impact on some population groups including women. On the other hand, women working in the field of natural hazards, either on site as emergency workers or in research, policy and administration as scientists, experts and managers have to deal with a number of challenges. However, gender issues are often neglected and women networks related to natural hazards in Europe but also worldwide are scarce. We present here "We4DRR: Women exchange for Disaster Risk Reduction", a new women's network focusing on gender issues in the field of disaster risk reduction but also on women working in the field. The network was initiated and organised by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (BMLFUW) and the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna (BOKU) and was launched in Austria in March 2016. Its aims include collecting data on gender issues and DRR, empowerment of women, mentoring of young female professionals, and increasing the visibility of gender-specific aspects in DRR.

Sexual risk reduction among Zambian couples | Jones | SAHARA-J ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Zambia has over 1 million HIV infections nationwide and an urban prevalence rate of 23%. This study compared the impact of male involvement in multiple and single session risk reduction interventions among inconsistent condom users in Zambia and the role of serostatus among HIV-seropositive and serodiscordant ...

Living with risk. A global review of disaster reduction initiatives. Preliminary version

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

In recent years the world has witnessed an interminable succession of disasters - floods, storms, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and wildfires that have claimed many thousands of lives, caused material losses in the tens of billions of dollars, and inflicted a terrible toll on developing countries in particular, where disasters divert attention and resources needed desperately to escape poverty. Communities will always face natural hazards, but today's disasters are often generated by, or at least exacerbated by, human activities. At the most dramatic level, human activities are changing the natural balance of the earth, interfering as never before with the atmosphere, the oceans, the polar ice caps, the forest cover and the natural pillars that make our world a livable home. But we are also putting ourselves in harm's way in less visible ways. At no time in human history have so many people lived in cities clustered around seismically active areas. Destitution and demographic pressure have led more people than ever before to live in flood plains or in areas prone to landslides. Poor land-use planning; environmental mismanagement; and a lack of regulatory mechanisms both increase the risk and exacerbate the effects of disasters. Living with risk: a global review of disaster reduction is the first comprehensive effort by the United Nations system to take stock of disaster reduction initiatives throughout the world. Coordinated by the secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the report discusses current disaster trends, assesses policies aimed at mitigating the impact of disasters, and offers examples of successful initiatives. It also recommends that risk reduction be integrated into sustainable development at all levels - global, national and local. Most of all, Living with risk shows that we are far from helpless in the face of natural hazards. Early warning and risk reduction measures have been important factors in

Recovery of Work-Related Stress: Complaint Reduction and Work-Resumption are Relatively Independent Processes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vente, W. de; Kamphuis, J.H.; Blonk, R.W.; Emmelkamp, P.M.

2015-01-01

Purpose The process of recovery from work-related stress, consisting of complaint reduction and work-resumption, is not yet fully understood. The aim of this study was to investigate predictors of complaint reduction and work-resumption, as well as testing complaint reduction as a mediator in the

Recovery of work-related stress: Complaint reduction and work-resumption are relatively independent processes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Vente, W.; Kamphuis, J.H.; Blonk, R.W.B.; Emmelkamp, P.M.G.

2015-01-01

Purpose: The process of recovery from work-related stress, consisting of complaint reduction and work-resumption, is not yet fully understood. The aim of this study was to investigate predictors of complaint reduction and work-resumption, as well as testing complaint reduction as a mediator in the

Comparative effectiveness of personalized lifestyle management strategies for cardiovascular disease risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P. Chu (Paula); A. Pandya; J.A. Salomon (Joshua A); S.J. Goldie (Sue J); Hunink, M.G.M. (M.G. Myriam)

2015-01-01

textabstractBackground-Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year

Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Duží, Barbora; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, Robert; Jakubínský, Jiří

2015-01-01

Roč. 18, č. 8 (2015), s. 1-6 ISSN 1381-2386 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.4.31.0056; GA MŠk(CZ) LD13032; GA MŠk(CZ) LD13033 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Bečva River Basin * Czech Republic * flood risk reduction * floods * household adaptation * household coping Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

Reducing substance use and risky sexual behaviour among drug users in Durban, South Africa: Assessing the impact of community-level risk-reduction interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Parry, C D H; Carney, T; Petersen Williams, P

2017-12-01

Alcohol and other drug (AOD) use is increasingly recognised as having a direct and indirect effect on the transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). However, there is evidence to suggest that drug- and sex-related HIV risk-reduction interventions targeted at drug users within drug treatment centres or via community outreach efforts can lead to positive health outcomes. This study aimed to test whether a community-level intervention aimed at AOD users has an impact on risky AOD use and sexual risk behaviour. In 2007, in collaboration with a local non-governmental organisation (NGO) in Durban, an initiative was begun to implement a number of harm reduction strategies for injection and non-injection drug users. The NGO recruited peer outreach workers who received intensive initial training, which was followed by six-monthly monitoring and evaluation of their performance. Participants had to be 16 years of age or older, and self-reported alcohol and/or drug users. Peer outreach workers completed a face-to-face baseline questionnaire with participants which recorded risk behaviours and a risk-reduction plan was developed with participants which consisted of reducing injection (if applicable) and non-injection drug use and sex-related risks. Other components of the intervention included distribution of condoms, risk-reduction counselling, expanded access to HIV Testing Services, HIV/sexually transmitted infection care and treatment, and referrals to substance abuse treatment and social services. At follow-up, the baseline questionnaire was completed again and participants were also asked the frequency of reducing identified risk behaviours. Baseline information was collected from 138 drug users recruited into the study through community-based outreach, and who were subsequently followed up between 2010 and 2012. No injection drug users were reached. The data presented here are for first contact (baseline) and the final follow-up contact with the participants

Harnessing farmers' knowledge and perceptions for health-risk reduction in wastewater-irrigated agriculture

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keraita, Bernard; Drechsel, Pay; Seidu, Razak

2009-01-01

This chapter addresses the importance of understanding farmers' knowledge and perceptions on health-risk and risk-reduction measures for the development of mutually acceptable risk-management strategies. Drawing on studies from different countries, the chapter shows that it is not realistic to ex...

Harnessing Farmers' knowledge and perceptions for health-risk reduction in wastewater-irrigated agriculture

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keraita, Bernhard; Drechsel, Pay; Seidu, Razak

2010-01-01

This chapter addresses the importance of understanding farmers’ knowledge and perceptions on health-risk and risk-reduction measures for the development of mutually acceptable risk-management strategies. Drawing on studies from different countries, the chapter shows that it is not realistic to ex...

Responding to Sea Level Rise: Does Short-Term Risk Reduction Inhibit Successful Long-Term Adaptation?

Science.gov (United States)

Keeler, A. G.; McNamara, D. E.; Irish, J. L.

2018-04-01

Most existing coastal climate-adaptation planning processes, and the research supporting them, tightly focus on how to use land use planning, policy tools, and infrastructure spending to reduce risks from rising seas and changing storm conditions. While central to community response to sea level rise, we argue that the exclusive nature of this focus biases against and delays decisions to take more discontinuous, yet proactive, actions to adapt—for example, relocation and aggressive individual protection investments. Public policies should anticipate real estate market responses to risk reduction to avoid large costs—social and financial—when and if sea level rise and other climate-related factors elevate the risks to such high levels that discontinuous responses become the least bad alternative.

Relative risk perception for terrorism: implications for preparedness and risk communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Caponecchia, Carlo

2012-09-01

Terrorism presents a significant risk that is often approached at public policy, infrastructure, or emergency management level. Public perceptions of the likelihood of terrorist events, and how this may relate to individual preparedness, are not always extensively examined. The tendency to think that negative events are less likely to happen to oneself than to the average person is known as optimism bias. Optimism bias is relevant to perceptions of terrorism, because it is thought to be related to a reduction in precaution use. Using an online survey of 164 participants, this study aimed to determine whether Sydney residents thought they had a lower likelihood of experiencing terrorist events than other Australians. Significant optimism bias was observed for witnessing terrorist events, but not for personally experiencing terrorist events. In addition, Sydney residents tended to think that terrorist attacks were more likely to occur in Sydney than another major Australian city in the next five years. At the same time, household and workplace preparedness for terrorism was quite low, as was awareness of emergency strategies in the central business district. Perceptions of high likelihood of terrorism happening in one's own city, yet low preparedness present a challenge for risk communication and emergency management strategies. The diversity of possible terrorist targets, and the simple plans that can moderate the effects of a disaster may need to be emphasized in future anti-terrorism initiatives. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

EFSA NDA Panel (EFSA Panel on Dietetic Products, Nutrition and Allergies), 2014. Scientific Opinion on the substantiation of a health claim related to CranMax® and reduction of the risk of urinary tract infection by inhibiting the adhesion of certain bacteria in the urinary tract pursuant

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tetens, Inge

related to CranMax® and reduction of the risk of urinary tract infection by inhibiting the adhesion of certain bacteria in the urinary tract. The food that is the subject of the claim is CranMax®. The Panel considers that the food, CranMax®, which is the subject of the claim is sufficiently characterised...... in relation to the claimed effect. The Panel considers that reduction of the risk of urinary tract infection by inhibiting the adhesion of certain bacteria in the urinary tract is a beneficial physiological effect. One human study from which conclusions could be drawn for the scientific substantiation...... of the claim did not show an effect of CranMax® on reduction of the risk of urinary tract infection by inhibiting the adhesion of certain bacteria in the urinary tract. The Panel concludes that a cause and effect relationship has not been established between the consumption of CranMax® and reduction...

Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

1990-01-01

When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate

Social Geology and Landslide Disaster Risk Reduction in Sri Lanka

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jayasingha P

2017-03-01

Full Text Available AbstractLandslide disaster risk reduction is presently a challenging task facing by Sri Lankangeologists. Increasing trend of population growth in Sri Lanka has adversely affected thestability of central highland due to various human activities. Among them establishment ofhuman settlements and change in land use pattern have become a serious issue in triggeringland instabilities in central highland of the country. National Building Research Oragnisationwhich is the main focal point in land slide disaster risk reduction in Sri Lanka has takenvaluable and timely needed actions including preparation of landslide hazard zonation maps,early warnings and mitigations. Though the landslide is a geological phenomenon, it is highlyinteracted with human societies. Hence managing the issues arising with the landslideoccurrence should be addressed with a sociological approach. This new approach is known asSocio Geological approach which is discussed here.Key words: Landslide, Geology, Socio Geology, Social Geologist

41 CFR 102-80.55 - Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.55 Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects? 102-80.55 Section 102-80.55 Public...

Reduction of radiation risks in patients undergoing some X-ray examinations by using optimal projections: A Monte Carlo program-based mathematical calculation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A Chaparian

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The objectives of this paper were calculation and comparison of the effective doses, the risks of exposure-induced cancer, and dose reduction in the gonads for male and female patients in different projections of some X-ray examinations. Radiographies of lumbar spine [in the eight projections of anteroposterior (AP, posteroanterior (PA, right lateral (RLAT, left lateral (LLAT, right anterior-posterior oblique (RAO, left anterior-posterior oblique (LAO, right posterior-anterior oblique (RPO, and left posterior-anterior oblique (LPO], abdomen (in the two projections of AP and PA, and pelvis (in the two projections of AP and PA were investigated. A solid-state dosimeter was used for the measuring of the entrance skin exposure. A Monte Carlo program was used for calculation of effective doses, the risks of radiation-induced cancer, and doses to the gonads related to the different projections. Results of this study showed that PA projection of abdomen, lumbar spine, and pelvis radiographies caused 50%-57% lower effective doses than AP projection and 50%-60% reduction in radiation risks. Also use of LAO projection of lumbar spine X-ray examination caused 53% lower effective dose than RPO projection and 56% and 63% reduction in radiation risk for male and female, respectively, and RAO projection caused 28% lower effective dose than LPO projection and 52% and 39% reduction in radiation risk for males and females, respectively. About dose reduction in the gonads, using of the PA position rather than AP in the radiographies of the abdomen, lumbar spine, and pelvis can result in reduction of the ovaries doses in women, 38%, 31%, and 25%, respectively and reduction of the testicles doses in males, 76%, 86%, and 94%, respectively. Also for oblique projections of lumbar spine X-ray examination, with employment of LAO rather than RPO and also RAO rather than LPO, demonstrated 22% and 13% reductions to the ovaries doses and 66% and 54% reductions in the

Modeling a Theory-Based Approach to Examine the Influence of Neurocognitive Impairment on HIV Risk Reduction Behaviors Among Drug Users in Treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Huedo-Medina, Tania B; Shrestha, Roman; Copenhaver, Michael

2016-08-01

Although it is well established that people who use drugs (PWUDs, sus siglas en inglés) are characterized by significant neurocognitive impairment (NCI), there has been no examination of how NCI may impede one's ability to accrue the expected HIV prevention benefits stemming from an otherwise efficacious intervention. This paper incorporated a theoretical Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills model of health behavior change (IMB) to examine the potential influence of NCI on HIV prevention outcomes as significantly moderating the mediation defined in the original model. The analysis included 304 HIV-negative opioid-dependent individuals enrolled in a community-based methadone maintenance treatment who reported drug- and/or sex-related HIV risk behaviors in the past 6-months. Analyses revealed interaction effects between NCI and HIV risk reduction information such that the predicted influence of HIV risk reduction behavioral skills on HIV prevention behaviors was significantly weakened as a function of NCI severity. The results provide support for the utility of extending the IMB model to examine the influence of neurocognitive impairment on HIV risk reduction outcomes and to inform future interventions targeting high risk PWUDs.

Risk factors for avascular necrosis after closed reduction for developmental dysplasia of the hip.

Science.gov (United States)

Schur, Mathew D; Lee, Christopher; Arkader, Alexandre; Catalano, Anthony; Choi, Paul D

2016-06-01

The purpose of this study was to identify and evaluate risk factors of avascular necrosis (AVN) after closed treatment for developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). A retrospective review of children diagnosed with DDH at a tertiary-care children's hospital between 1986 and 2009 was performed. The presence of AVN was assessed according to Salter's classification system. Eighty-two affected hips in 70 children with an average age of 10 months at closed reduction (range 1-31 months) and 5 years (range 2-19 years) of follow-up met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-nine (of 82, 35 %) affected hips developed AVN. The use of pre-reduction traction (p = 0.019) increased the risk of AVN, while preoperative Pavlik harness or brace trial (p = 0.28), presence of ossific nucleus at the time of closed reduction (p = 0.16), and adductor tenotomy (p = 0.37) were not significant factors. Laterality (right vs. left) was also not a significant risk factor (p = 0.75), but patients who underwent closed reduction for bilateral DDH were less likely to develop AVN (p = 0.027). Overall, the degree of abduction did not affect the rate of AVN (p = 0.87). However, in patients treated with closed reduction younger than 6 months of age, the rate of AVN was increased with abduction ≥50° (9/15, 60 %) compared to abduction AVN were more likely to require subsequent surgery (p = 0.034) and more likely to report a fair/poor clinical outcome (p = 0.049). The risk of AVN (35 %) following closed reduction and spica casting for DDH is high. The degree of abduction in spica casts appears to be a risk factor in patients ≤6 months old. The authors recommend that abduction in spica casts should be limited to <50° in children younger than 6 months of age. IV.

Estimating mortality risk reduction and economic benefits from controlling ozone air pollution

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Committee on Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction Benefits from Decreasing Tropospheric Ozone Exposure

2008-01-01

... in life expectancy, and to assess methods for estimating the monetary value of the reduced risk of premature death and increased life expectancy in the context of health-benefits analysis. Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution details the committee's findings and posits several recommendations to address these issues.

Investigating the risk reduction potential of disaster insurance across Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Surminski, Swenja; Hudson, Paul

2017-01-01

The notion that insurance can play a significant role in risk reduction has recently gained increasing attention in the wake of rising losses from natural disasters. While this notion is accepted in theory, we notice that, in practice, little is known about if and how insurance promotes efforts to

Smartphone Delivery of Mobile HIV Risk Reduction Education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karran A. Phillips

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We sought to develop and deploy a video-based smartphone-delivered mobile HIV Risk Reduction (mHIVRR intervention to individuals in an addiction treatment clinic. We developed 3 video modules that consisted of a 10-minute HIVRR video, 11 acceptability questions, and 3 knowledge questions and deployed them as a secondary study within a larger study of ecological momentary and geographical momentary assessments. All 24 individuals who remained in the main study long enough completed the mHIVRR secondary study. All 3 videos met our a priori criteria for acceptability “as is” in the population: they achieved median scores of ≤2.5 on a 5-point Likert scale; ≤20% of the individuals gave them the most negative rating on the scale; a majority of the individuals stated that they would not prefer other formats over video-based smartphone-delivered one (all P<0.05. Additionally, all of our video modules met our a priori criteria for feasibility: ≤20% of data were missing due to participant noncompliance and ≤20% were missing due to technical failure. We concluded that video-based mHIVRR education delivered via smartphone is acceptable, feasible and may increase HIV/STD risk reduction knowledge. Future studies, with pre-intervention assessments of knowledge and random assignment, are needed to confirm these findings.

Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, D. E.

2013-11-01

This paper examines the development over historical time of the meaning and uses of the term resilience. The objective is to deepen our understanding of how the term came to be adopted in disaster risk reduction and resolve some of the conflicts and controversies that have arisen when it has been used. The paper traces the development of resilience through the sciences, humanities, and legal and political spheres. It considers how mechanics passed the word to ecology and psychology, and how from there it was adopted by social research and sustainability science. As other authors have noted, as a concept, resilience involves some potentially serious conflicts or contradictions, for example between stability and dynamism, or between dynamic equilibrium (homeostasis) and evolution. Moreover, although the resilience concept works quite well within the confines of general systems theory, in situations in which a systems formulation inhibits rather than fosters explanation, a different interpretation of the term is warranted. This may be the case for disaster risk reduction, which involves transformation rather than preservation of the "state of the system". The article concludes that the modern conception of resilience derives benefit from a rich history of meanings and applications, but that it is dangerous - or at least potentially disappointing - to read to much into the term as a model and a paradigm.

Evaluation of air pollution-related risks for Austrian mountain forests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smidt, Stefan; Herman, Friedl

2004-01-01

The present paper describes air pollution status and evaluation of risks related to effects of phytotoxic pollutants in the Austrian mountain forests. The results are based on Austrian networks (Forest Inventory, Forest Damage Monitoring System, Austrian Bioindicator Grid), the Austrian sample plots of the European networks of the UN-ECE (ICP Forests, Level I and Level II) and interdisciplinary research approaches. Based on the monitoring data and on modelling and mapping of Critical Thresholds, the evaluation of risk factors was possible. Cause-effect relationships between air pollution and tree responses were shown by tree-physiological measurements. Sulfur impact, proton and lead input, concentrations of nitrogen oxides, nitrogen input and ozone were evaluated. The risk was demonstrated at a regional and large-scale national level. Especially the increasing O 3 level and the accumulation of Pb with altitude present most serious risk for mountain forests. - Despite strong reduction of emissions in Europe, pollutants are still a potential stress factor, especially for sensitive mountain forest ecosystems in Austria

The contribution of indigenous knowledge to disaster risk reduction activities in Zimbabwe: A big call to practitioners

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ernest Dube

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This article examined the contribution of indigenous knowledge to disaster risk reduction activities in Zimbabwe. The current discourse underrates the use of indigenous knowledge of communities by practitioners when dealing with disasters’, as the knowledge is often viewed as outdated and primitive. This study, which was conducted in 2016, sought to examine this problem through analysing the potential contribution of indigenous knowledge as a useful disaster risk reduction intervention. Tsholotsho district in Matabeleland, North province of Zimbabwe, which frequently experiences perennial devastating floods, was used as a case study. Interviews and researcher observations were used to gather data from 40 research participants. The findings were that communities understand weather patterns and could predict imminent flooding after studying trees and clouds, and the behaviours of certain animal species. Local communities also use available local resources to put structural measures in place as part of disaster risk reduction interventions. Despite this important potential, the study found that the indigenous knowledge of disaster risk reduction of the communities is often shunned by practitioners. The practitioners claim that indigenous knowledge lacks documentation, it is not found in all generational classes, it is contextualised to particular communities and the knowledge cannot be scientifically validated. The study concluded that both local communities and disaster risk reduction practitioners can benefit from the indigenous knowledge of communities. This research has the potential to benefit communities, policymakers and disaster risk reduction practitioners.

Blood Glucose Reduction by Diabetic Drugs with Minimal Hypoglycemia Risk for Cardiovascular Outcomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huang, Chi-Jung; Wang, Wei-Ting; Sung, Shih-Hsien

2018-01-01

of antidiabetic drugs with less hypoglycemia risk were comprehensively searched in MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library up to January 27, 2018. Mixed-effects meta-regression analysis was conducted to explore the relationship between haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) reduction and the risk of major adverse...... concentration was 0.42% lower (median, 0.27-0.86%) for participants given antihyperglycemic agents than those given placebo. The meta-regression analysis demonstrated that HbA1c reduction was significantly associated with a decreased risk of MACE (β value, -0.39 to -0.55; P...-40%) for MACE. By contrast, the meta-regression analysis for trials using conventional agents failed to demonstrate a significant relationship between achieved HbA1c difference and MACE risk (P>0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with placebo, newer T2D agents with less hypoglycemic hazard significantly reduced...

Walking versus running for hypertension, cholesterol, and diabetes mellitus risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Paul T; Thompson, Paul D

2013-05-01

To test whether equivalent energy expenditure by moderate-intensity (eg, walking) and vigorous-intensity exercise (eg, running) provides equivalent health benefits. We used the National Runners' (n=33 060) and Walkers' (n=15 945) Health Study cohorts to examine the effect of differences in exercise mode and thereby exercise intensity on coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors. Baseline expenditure (metabolic equivant hours per day [METh/d]) was compared with self-reported, physician-diagnosed incident hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, and CHD during 6.2 years follow-up. Running significantly decreased the risks for incident hypertension by 4.2% (Pdiabetes mellitus by 12.1% (Phypertension; and (3) 43.5%, 44.1%, 47.7%, and 68.2% from running, and 34.1%, 44.2% and 23.6% from walking for diabetes mellitus (walking >5.4 METh/d excluded for too few cases). The risk reductions were not significantly different for running than walking for diabetes mellitus (P=0.94), hypertension (P=0.06), or CHD (P=0.26), and only marginally greater for walking than running for hypercholesterolemia (P=0.04). Equivalent energy expenditures by moderate (walking) and vigorous (running) exercise produced similar risk reductions for hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, and possibly CHD.

Perceptions of farmers on health risks and risk reduction measures in wastewater-irrigated urban vegetable farming in Ghana

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keraita, Bernard; Drechsel, Pay; Konradsen, Flemming

2008-01-01

, authorities and the general public, especially if they had some incentives. These findings demonstrate the need to involve farmers as early as possible in intervention projects especially in informal farming practices, like urban agriculture, where restrictions are difficult to implement. This will ensure......Most irrigation water used in urban vegetable farming in Ghana is contaminated with untreated wastewater. This poses health risks to farmers and consumers. As part of a study to explore options for health risk reduction, this paper summarizes farmers' perceptions on health risks and possible risk...

Investigation of the Effect of Control Measures on Reduction of Risk Events in an Edible Oil Factory in Tehran, Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Malihe Kolahdouzi

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Background & Aims of the Study: Identification of hazards is one of the first goals of risk analysis. Failure mode and effect analysis method (FMEA is universally defined as efficient procedures for finding potential failures aimed to remove or decrease the risk which is related to them. This study aimed to investigate the effect of control measures on reduction of risk events in an edible oil factory in Tehran. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in an edible oil factory in Tehran, Iran. For this, a four-member team of safety engineer experts was formed. Some factory units were selected randomly. After that, in all units, probability, severity and detection probability of hazards in all processes and tasks were assessed based on FMEA method. Regarding to the RPN, some control measures were taken to reduce the risk of events. After 9 months, risk assessment was repeated; primary and secondary RPNs were compared with each other to investigate the effect of interventions. Results: The results showed that highest and lowest probability of hazard were related to installation and can production unit, respectively. The highest and lowest severity of hazard were related to tool and can production unit, respectively. There was a significant difference between the probability of hazard in can-making and filling units, before and after the interventions. There was a significant difference between the severity of hazard in can-making, filling and neutralization units, before and after the interventions. As well, total probability, severity and RPN had a significant difference in all parts of the factory before and after the interventions. Conclusions: According to the results of this study and the overall risk reduction caused by interventional measures, it can be concluded that, FMEA is a successful method for identifying hazards and risk control measures.

Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions for Environmental Policy: A White Paper (1999)

Science.gov (United States)

This white paper addresses current and recent U.S. EPA practices regarding the valuation of mortality risk reductions, focusing especially on empirical estimates of the “value of a statistical life” (VSL) from stated preference and hedonic wage studies.

Energy-related risk in the U.S.A. in the year 2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inhaber, H.; King, S.

1986-01-01

The present risk to health of energy systems has been the subject of much debate in recent years. This paper extrapolates some present results on energy-related risk to the year 2020. It finds that if today's trends continue, the largest sources of risk will be due to the changeover from large to small cars, radon buildup in better-sealed buildings and the entire coal (and synthetic fuel) cycle. Other sources of risk, such as the larger proportion of nuclear and solar energy three or four decades from now, are about an order of magnitude lower than the aforementioned three. Because of the many uncertainties in the calculations, the results should be viewed as primarily qualitative, although derived quantitatively. However, they can be used as a guide by policymakers and research planners to produce the greatest risk reduction per unit effort. (author)

Reducing shame in a game that predicts HIV risk reduction for young adult MSM: a randomized trial delivered nationally over the Web.

Science.gov (United States)

Christensen, John L; Miller, Lynn Carol; Appleby, Paul Robert; Corsbie-Massay, Charisse; Godoy, Carlos Gustavo; Marsella, Stacy C; Read, Stephen J

2013-11-13

Men who have sex with men (MSM) often face socially sanctioned disapproval of sexual deviance from the heterosexual "normal." Such sexual stigma can be internalized producing a painful affective state (i.e., shame). Although shame (e.g., addiction) can predict risk-taking (e.g., alcohol abuse), sexual shame's link to sexual risk-taking is unclear. Socially Optimized Learning in Virtual Environments (SOLVE) was designed to reduce MSM's sexual shame, but whether it does so, and if that reduction predicts HIV risk reduction, is unclear. To test if at baseline, MSM's reported past unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) is related to shame; MSM's exposure to SOLVE compared to a wait-list control (WLC) condition reduces MSM's shame; and shame-reduction mediates the link between WLC condition and UAI risk reduction. HIV-negative, self-identified African American, Latino or White MSM, aged 18-24 years, who had had UAI with a non-primary/casual partner in the past three months were recruited for a national online study. Eligible MSM were computer randomized to either WLC or a web-delivered SOLVE. Retained MSM completed baseline measures (e.g., UAI in the past three months; current level of shame) and, in the SOLVE group, viewed at least one level of the game. At the end of the first session, shame was measured again. MSM completed follow-up UAI measures three months later. All data from 921 retained MSM (WLC condition, 484; SOLVE condition, 437) were analyzed, with missing data multiply imputed. At baseline, MSM reporting more risky sexual behaviour reported more shame (r s=0.21; peffect was significant (point estimate -0.10, 95% bias-corrected CI [-0.01 to -0.23] such that participants in the SOLVE treatment condition reported greater reductions in shame, which in turn predicted reductions in risky sexual behaviour at follow-up. The direct effect, however, was not significant. SOLVE is the first intervention to: (1) significantly reduce shame for MSM; and (2) demonstrate that

The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

2014-01-01

The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

Effectiveness of a fall-risk reduction programme for inpatient rehabilitation after stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

Goljar, Nika; Globokar, Daniel; Puzić, Nataša; Kopitar, Natalija; Vrabič, Maja; Ivanovski, Matic; Vidmar, Gaj

2016-09-01

To evaluate effectiveness of fall-risk-assessment-based fall prevention for stroke rehabilitation inpatients. A consecutive series of 232 patients admitted for the first time to a subacute stroke-rehabilitation ward during 2010-2011 was studied in detail. The Assessment Sheet for Fall Prediction in Stroke Inpatients (ASFPSI by Nakagawa et al.) was used to assess fall-risk upon admission. Association of ASFPSI score and patient characteristics with actual falls was statistically tested. Yearly incidence of falls per 1000 hospital days (HD) was retrospectively audited for the 2006-2014 period to evaluate effectiveness of fall-risk reduction measures. The observed incidence of falls over the detailed-study-period was 3.0/1000 HD; 39% of the fallers fell during the first week after admission. ASFPSI score was not significantly associated with falls. Longer hospital stay, left body-side affected and non-extreme FIM score (55-101) were associated with higher odds of fall. Introduction of fall-risk reduction measures followed by compulsory fall-risk assessment lead to incidence of falls dropping from 7.1/1000 HD in 2006 to 2.8/1000 HD in 2011 and remaining at that level until 2014. The fall-risk-assessment-based measures appear to have led to decreasing falls risk among post-stroke rehabilitation inpatients classified as being at high risk of falls. The fall prevention programme as a whole was successful. Patients with non-extreme level of functional independence should receive enhanced fall prevention. Implications for Rehabilitation Recognising the fall risk upon the patient's admission is essential for preventing falls in rehabilitation wards. Assessing the fall risk is a team tasks and combines information from various sources. Assessing fall risk in stroke patients using the assessment sheet by Nakagawa et al. immediately upon admission systematically draws attention to the risk of falls in each individual patient.

Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Peach Bottom, Unit 2. Main report. Draft for comment, February 1987

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amos, C N [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Benjamin, A S; Griesmeyer, J M; Haskin, F E; Kunsman, D M [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Boyd, G J; Lewis, S R [Safety and Reliability Optimization Services, Inc., Knoxville, TN (United States); Helton, J C [Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ (United States); Smith, L N [Science Applications International Corporation, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1987-04-01

The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a boiling water reactor with a Mark I containment (Peach Bottom, Unit 2). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally low relative to previous studies; for example, most of the uncertainty range is lower than the point estimate of risk for the Peach Bottom plant in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues cause the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. These issues include the modeling of the common-mode failures for the dc power system, the likelihood of offsite power recovery versus time during a station blackout, the probability of drywell failure resulting from meltthrough of the drywell shell, the magnitude of the fission product releases during core-concrete interactions, and the decontamination effectiveness of the reactor enclosure building. Most of the postulated safety options do not appear to be cost effective, although some based on changes to procedures or inexpensive hardware additions may be marginally cost effective. This draft for comment of the SARRP report for Peach Bottom does not include detailed technical appendices, which are still in preparation. The appendices will be issued under separate cover when completed. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150. (author)

Analysis of risk reduction methods for interfacing system LOCAs [loss-of-coolant accidents] at PWRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bozoki, G.; Kohut, P.; Fitzpatrick, R.

1988-01-01

The Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) predicted that Interfacing System Loss-of-Coolant Accidents (ISL) events were significant contributors to risk even though they were calculated to be relatively low frequency events. However, there are substantial uncertainties involved in determining the probability and consequences of the ISL sequences. For example, the assumed valve failure modes, common cause contributions and the location of the break/leak are all uncertain and can significantly influence the predicted risk from ISL events. In order to provide more realistic estimates for the core damage frequencies (CDFs) and a reduction in the magnitude of the uncertainties, a reexamination of ISL scenarios at PWRs has been performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory. The objective of this study was to investigate the vulnerability of pressurized water reactor designs to ISLs and identify any improvements that could significantly reduce the frequency/risk of these events

Development of a module for Cost-Benefit analysis of risk reduction measures for natural hazards for the CHANGES-SDSS platform

Science.gov (United States)

Berlin, Julian; Bogaard, Thom; Van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Mostert, Eric; Dopheide, Emile

2014-05-01

Cost benefit analysis (CBA) is a well know method used widely for the assessment of investments either in the private and public sector. In the context of risk mitigation and the evaluation of risk reduction alternatives for natural hazards its use is very important to evaluate the effectiveness of such efforts in terms of avoided monetary losses. However the current method has some disadvantages related to the spatial distribution of the costs and benefits, the geographical distribution of the avoided damage and losses, the variation in areas that are benefited in terms of invested money and avoided monetary risk. Decision-makers are often interested in how the costs and benefits are distributed among different administrative units of a large area or region, so they will be able to compare and analyse the cost and benefits per administrative unit as a result of the implementation of the risk reduction projects. In this work we first examined the Cost benefit procedure for natural hazards, how the costs are assessed for several structural and non-structural risk reduction alternatives, we also examined the current problems of the method such as the inclusion of cultural and social considerations that are complex to monetize , the problem of discounting future values using a defined interest rate and the spatial distribution of cost and benefits. We also examined the additional benefits and the indirect costs associated with the implementation of the risk reduction alternatives such as the cost of having a ugly landscape (also called negative benefits). In the last part we examined the current tools and software used in natural hazards assessment with support to conduct CBA and we propose design considerations for the implementation of the CBA module for the CHANGES-SDSS Platform an initiative of the ongoing 7th Framework Programme "CHANGES of the European commission. Keywords: Risk management, Economics of risk mitigation, EU Flood Directive, resilience, prevention

Risk reduction and TQM: A corporate culture of continuous improvement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nau, D.C.

1992-01-01

A company supplying products and services to the nuclear industry that implements a cultural commitment to continuous improvement, in addition to providing higher quality products and services, also represents a significant reduction in operational risk to that industry. The implementation of a culture of total quality management (TQM), initiated by Sorrento Electronics (SE) in 1989, involves total commitment to the basic TQM principles: continuous improvement, people performing the work are the best sources of how to do it better, and employees must be empowered to make the improvements. What this means to the nuclear industry is a significant reduction in operational risk through: (1) products based on simpler, standardized, proven designs with established operational track records, enhancing confidence that they will perform as expected; (2) the highest confidence that products and supporting documentation are delivered with zero defects; (3) critical power plant schedules can be supported through the shortest possible equipment delivery times; (4) highly motivated employees with extremely positive attitudes, working together in cross-functional teams, virtually eliminate the possibility of deliberate product tampering or sabotage

Decreasing relative risk premium

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Frank

2007-01-01

such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...

Modelling projections for the risks related with atrial fibrillation in East Asia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bai, Ying; Guo, Shi-Dong; Shantsila, Alena

2017-01-01

Aims: In the Far East, there has generally been low uptake of oral anticoagulants (OACs) using vitamin K antagonists (VKA, e.g. warfarin) for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), but OAC use has been increasing more recently, with the introduction of the non-vitamin K antagonist oral...... anticoagulants (NOACs). To explore the risks of ischaemic stroke (IS) and death related to AF in East Asia using modelling projections. Methods and results: We performed a modelling analysis of possible trends of IS and death rates in AF patients from the time period of only VKA use to current increasing trends....... There was an estimated annual risk reduction of 5484 ISs and 1128 deaths from 2016 to 2030, respectively. The AF population is estimated to reach 861 900 in 2050, with a reduction of 206 315 ISs and 139 353 deaths. Conclusion: This modelling analysis suggests that the transition from VKA to NOACs may greatly help...

Frequency-Weighted Balancing Related Controller Reduction

OpenAIRE

Varga, Andras; Anderson, Brian D.O.

2002-01-01

The efficient solution of a class of controller approximation problems by using frequency-weighted balancing related model reduction approaches is considered. It is shown that for certain standard performance and stability enforcing frequency-weights, the computation of the frequency-weighted controllability and observability grammians can be done by solving reduced order Lyapunov equations regardless the controller itself is stable or unstable. The new approach can be used in conjunction wit...

Fibrates are an essential part of modern anti-dyslipidemic arsenal: spotlight on atherogenic dyslipidemia and residual risk reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tenenbaum Alexander

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Currently the world faces epidemic of several closely related conditions: obesity, metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes (T2DM. The lipid profile of these patients and those with metabolic syndrome is characterized by the concurrent presence of qualitative as well as quantitative lipoprotein abnormalities: low levels of HDL, increased triglycerides, and prevalence of LDL particles that are smaller and denser than normal. This lipid phenotype has been defined as atherogenic dyslipidemia. Overwhelming evidences demonstrate that all components of the atherogenic dyslipidemia are important risk-factors for cardiovascular diseases. Optimal reduction of cardiovascular risk through comprehensive management of atherogenic dyslipidemias basically depends of the presence of efficacious lipid-modulating agents (beyond statin-based reduction of LDL-C. The most important class of medications which can be effectively used nowadays to combat atherogenic dyslipidemias is the fibrates. From a clinical point of view, in all available 5 randomized control trials beneficial effects of major fibrates (gemfibrozil, fenofibrate, bezafibrate were clearly demonstrated and were highly significant in patients with atherogenic dyslipidemia. In these circumstances, the main determinant of the overall results of the trial is mainly dependent of the number of the included appropriate patients with atherogenic dyslipidemia. In a meta-analysis of dyslipidemic subgroups totaling 4726 patients a significant 35% relative risk reduction in cardiovascular events was observed compared with a non significant 6% reduction in those without dyslipidemia. However, different fibrates may have a somewhat different spectrum of effects. Currently only fenofibrate was investigated and proved to be effective in reducing microvascular complications of diabetes. Bezafibrate reduced the severity of intermittent claudication. Cardinal differences between bezafibrate and other fibrates are

Fibrates are an essential part of modern anti-dyslipidemic arsenal: spotlight on atherogenic dyslipidemia and residual risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Tenenbaum, Alexander; Fisman, Enrique Z

2012-10-11

Currently the world faces epidemic of several closely related conditions: obesity, metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The lipid profile of these patients and those with metabolic syndrome is characterized by the concurrent presence of qualitative as well as quantitative lipoprotein abnormalities: low levels of HDL, increased triglycerides, and prevalence of LDL particles that are smaller and denser than normal. This lipid phenotype has been defined as atherogenic dyslipidemia. Overwhelming evidences demonstrate that all components of the atherogenic dyslipidemia are important risk-factors for cardiovascular diseases. Optimal reduction of cardiovascular risk through comprehensive management of atherogenic dyslipidemias basically depends of the presence of efficacious lipid-modulating agents (beyond statin-based reduction of LDL-C). The most important class of medications which can be effectively used nowadays to combat atherogenic dyslipidemias is the fibrates. From a clinical point of view, in all available 5 randomized control trials beneficial effects of major fibrates (gemfibrozil, fenofibrate, bezafibrate) were clearly demonstrated and were highly significant in patients with atherogenic dyslipidemia. In these circumstances, the main determinant of the overall results of the trial is mainly dependent of the number of the included appropriate patients with atherogenic dyslipidemia. In a meta-analysis of dyslipidemic subgroups totaling 4726 patients a significant 35% relative risk reduction in cardiovascular events was observed compared with a non significant 6% reduction in those without dyslipidemia. However, different fibrates may have a somewhat different spectrum of effects. Currently only fenofibrate was investigated and proved to be effective in reducing microvascular complications of diabetes. Bezafibrate reduced the severity of intermittent claudication. Cardinal differences between bezafibrate and other fibrates are related to the effects on

The derivation and application of a risk related value of the spend for saving a statistical life

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jackson, D; Stone, D; Butler, G G; McGlynn, G

2004-01-01

The concept of a risk related value of the spend for saving a statistical life (VSSSL) is advanced for use in cost-benefit studies across the power generation sector, and the nuclear industry in particular. For illustrative purposes, a best estimate VSSSL is set based on HSE guidance at Pounds 2 M. Above a risk of 10 -3 y -1 it is assumed that the VSSSL may approach this maximum sustainable value. As the risk reduces so does the VSSSL. At a risk level of 10 -6 y -1 a VSSSL of Pounds 0.5 M is applied. For risks below 10 -9 y -1 the value of further risk reduction approaches zero, although a nominal VSSSL of Pounds 10 k is applied as a pragmatic way forward in this study. The implications of adopting this concept as an aid to decision making in determining the spend on radiological dose reduction measures are illustrated through a worked example with a banded approach to estimating collective dose

Disaster risk reduction in the Omusati and Oshana regions of Namibia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elina Amadhila

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Namibia often experiences heavy rains in the north and north-eastern parts of the country, which results in severe flooding. For this reason, the country has endorsed the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA which seeks to develop the resilience of nations and communities to disasters and to assist countries to move away from the approach of emergency response to one of integrated disaster risk reduction. The aim of this article is to assess the resilience of the communities within the identified regions. A quantitative questionnaire was designed to assess people at risk of disaster related impacts. The questionnaire used 20 indicators to measure the level of progress at local level and how local governance plays a role in the mitigation and management of disasters. Analysis of data was done on a limited number of descriptors such as age, gender and local governance involvement, amongst others. There was generally a very high perception of threat (38% in the study regions. Women perceived threat more accurately (mean = 4.09 than men. The community perceived threat more accurately than local government and civil society (mean = 4.08.

Feasibility and acceptability of a bar-based sexual risk reduction intervention for bar patrons in Tshwane, South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Morojele, Neo K; Kitleli, Naledi; Ngako, Kgalabi; Kekwaletswe, Connie T; Nkosi, Sebenzile; Fritz, Katherine; Parry, Charles D H

2014-01-01

Alcohol consumption is a recognised risk factor for HIV infection. Alcohol serving establishments have been identified as appropriate venues in which to deliver HIV prevention interventions. This paper describes experiences and lessons learnt from implementing a combined HIV prevention intervention in bar settings in one city- and one township-based bar in Tshwane, South Africa. The intervention consisted of peer-led and brief intervention counselling sub-components. Thirty-nine bar patrons were recruited and trained, and delivered HIV and alcohol risk reduction activities to their peers as peer interventionists. At the same time, nine counsellors received training and visited the bars weekly to provide brief motivational interviewing counselling, advice, and referrals to the patrons of the bars. A responsible server sub-component that had also been planned was not delivered as it was not feasible to train the staff in the two participating bars. Over the eight-month period the counsellors were approached by and provided advice and counselling for alcohol and sexual risk-related problems to 111 bar patrons. The peer interventionists reported 1323 risk reduction interactions with their fellow bar patrons during the same period. The intervention was overall well received and suggests that bar patrons and servers can accept a myriad of intervention activities to reduce sexual risk behaviour within their drinking settings. However, HIV- and AIDS-related stigma hindered participation in certain intervention activities in some instances. The buy-in that we received from the relevant stakeholders (i.e. bar owners/managers and patrons, and the community at large) was an important contributor to the feasibility and acceptability of the intervention.

Disaster Risk Reduction through school learners’ awareness and preparedness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takalani S. Rambau

2012-11-01

Full Text Available In 2006, the ISDR (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2007 initiated a campaign called Disaster Risk Reduction Begins at School to encourage the integration of disaster risk education into school curricula in countries vulnerable to disasters. A study was initiated to determine how education, in particular curriculum development and teaching, contributes to South African learners’ hazard awareness and disaster preparedness. Mixed method research (consisting of questionnaires, interviews and document reviews was done to collect data. 150 educators from Gauteng, the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, North West and the Eastern Cape completed questionnaires. Five curriculum coordinators, three disaster specialists and two disaster lecturers were interviewed to record their perspectives. The first finding of the study was that the majority of educators, disaster specialists and curriculum coordinators identified floods, fire, droughts, epidemics, road accidents and storms as the most prevalent disasters in the country. The second finding from the literature and empirical data collection revealed that South African communities, particularly people residing in informal settlements and other poor areas, are more vulnerable to disasters than their counterparts in more affluent areas. The third finding of the study was that teaching learners about hazards and disasters is vital and must be expanded.

Risk of breast cancer in young women in relation to body size and weight gain in adolescence and early adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Coates, R J; Uhler, R J; Hall, H I; Potischman, N; Brinton, L A; Ballard-Barbash, R; Gammon, M D; Brogan, D R; Daling, J R; Malone, K E; Schoenberg, J B; Swanson, C A

1999-09-01

Findings have been inconsistent on effects of adolescent body size and adult weight gain on risk of breast cancer in young women. These relations were examined in a population-based case control study of 1590 women less than 45 years of age newly diagnosed with breast cancer during 1990-1992 in three areas of the US and an age-matched control group of 1390 women. Height and weight were measured at interview and participants asked to recall information about earlier body size. Logistic regression was used to estimate the relative risk of breast cancer adjusted for other risk factors. Women who were either much heavier or lighter than average in adolescence or at age 20 were at reduced risk. Weight gain after age 20 resulted in reduced risk, but the effect was confined to early-stage and, more specifically, lower grade breast cancer. Neither the risk reduction nor the variation by breast cancer stage or grade was explained by the method of cancer detection or by prior mammography history. These findings suggest that relations between breast cancer risk in young women and body weight at different ages is complex and that the risk reduction with adult weight gain is confined to less aggressive cancers.

Preferences for breast cancer risk reduction among BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers: a discrete-choice experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Liede, Alexander; Mansfield, Carol A; Metcalfe, Kelly A; Price, Melanie A; Snyder, Carrie; Lynch, Henry T; Friedman, Sue; Amelio, Justyna; Posner, Joshua; Narod, Steven A; Lindeman, Geoffrey J; Evans, D Gareth

2017-09-01

Unaffected women who carry BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations face difficult choices about reducing their breast cancer risk. Understanding their treatment preferences could help us improve patient counseling and inform drug trials. The objective was to explore preferences for various risk-reducing options among women with germline BRCA1/2 mutations using a discrete-choice experiment survey and to compare expressed preferences with actual behaviors. A discrete-choice experiment survey was designed wherein women choose between hypothetical treatments to reduce breast cancer risk. The hypothetical treatments were characterized by the extent of breast cancer risk reduction, treatment duration, impact on fertility, hormone levels, risk of uterine cancer, and ease and mode of administration. Data were analyzed using a random-parameters logit model. Women were also asked to express their preference between surgical and chemoprevention options and to report on their actual risk-reduction actions. Women aged 25-55 years with germline BRCA1/2 mutations who were unaffected with breast or ovarian cancer were recruited through research registries at five clinics and a patient advocacy group. Between January 2015 and March 2016, 622 women completed the survey. Breast cancer risk reduction was the most important consideration expressed, followed by maintaining fertility. Among the subset of women who wished to have children in future, the ability to maintain fertility was the most important factor, followed by the extent of risk reduction. Many more women said they would take a chemoprevention drug than had actually taken chemoprevention. Women with BRCA1/2 mutations indicated strong preferences for breast cancer risk reduction and maintaining fertility. The expressed desire to have a safe chemoprevention drug available to them was not met by current chemoprevention options.

A practical approach to assess depression risk and to guide risk reduction strategies in later life.

Science.gov (United States)

Almeida, Osvaldo P; Alfonso, Helman; Pirkis, Jane; Kerse, Ngaire; Sim, Moira; Flicker, Leon; Snowdon, John; Draper, Brian; Byrne, Gerard; Goldney, Robert; Lautenschlager, Nicola T; Stocks, Nigel; Scazufca, Marcia; Huisman, Martijn; Araya, Ricardo; Pfaff, Jon

2011-03-01

Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for depression with the aim of developing a practical probabilistic model of depression that can be used to guide risk reduction strategies. A cross-sectional study was undertaken of 20,677 community-dwelling Australians aged 60 years or over in contact with their general practitioner during the preceding 12 months. Prevalent depression (minor or major) according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) assessment was the main outcome of interest. Other measured exposures included self-reported age, gender, education, loss of mother or father before age 15 years, physical or sexual abuse before age 15 years, marital status, financial stress, social support, smoking and alcohol use, physical activity, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. The mean age of participants was 71.7 ± 7.6 years and 57.9% were women. Depression was present in 1665 (8.0%) of our subjects. Multivariate logistic regression showed depression was independently associated with age older than 75 years, childhood adverse experiences, adverse lifestyle practices (smoking, risk alcohol use, physical inactivity), intermediate health hazards (obesity, diabetes and hypertension), comorbid medical conditions (clinical history of coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema or cancers), and social or financial strain. We stratified the exposures to build a matrix that showed that the probability of depression increased progressively with the accumulation of risk factors, from less than 3% for those with no adverse factors to more than 80% for people reporting the maximum number of risk factors. Our

A Dutch Perspective on Coastal Louisiana Flood Risk Reduction and Landscape Stabilization

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Dijkman, Jos

2007-01-01

.... The project was aimed at identifying options for the long-term reduction of flood risks and landscape stabilization in Planning Areas I and 2 in Louisiana, in the framework of the Louisiana Coastal...

Risk assessment related to manual handling on choosen work possition in foundry Alstom Power Sp. z o. o.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Kowal

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Manual handling remains one of the different types of transport inside working place, although technological progress and modernorganization of work. Manual transport as a transport inside working place is related to foundry industry. According to polish lawregulations employer has to give consideration to manual handling in professional risk assessment and introduce actions for manualhandling reduction. In Foundry Elblag case there is found that in many processes manual handling are made by workers. For example wecan choose melting processes (additives manual feeding, mixing and pulling metallurgical slag, etc. or fettling processes like grinding.Objective of that analysis was to define level of risk related to manual handling in work stand chosen and define activities impacted onrisk assessment result with biggest range. For risk reduction, technical and organizational solutions were shown (better ergonomically work stand, method of work and worker’s awareness about good practices. In this study methods related to manual handling risk assessment were described, focus on KIM method used in Foundry Elblag. Key Item Method allow to estimate the risk by simple calculation based on key indicators (time rating points, rating points of mass, posture or work condition. Points were chosen based on timekeeping, information from workers and foreman.

Injecting drug use, sexual risk, HIV knowledge and harm reduction uptake in a large prison in Bali, Indonesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Sawitri, Anak Agung Sagung; Hartawan, Anak Agung Gede; Craine, Noel; Sari, Ayu Kartika; Septarini, Ni Wayan; Wirawan, Dewa Nyoman

2016-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to describe HIV-related risk behavior and knowledge of HIV among inmates of Kerobokan prison Bali, Indonesia. A cross-sectional survey of inmates of using a structured questionnaire and sample framework to reflect narcotic use among inmates and the prison gender mix. Among 230 inmates recruited to the study self-reported prevalence of injecting drug use was 7.4 percent (95 percent CI 4.0-10.8 percent). Respondents who participated in a prison based methadone treatment program were all still injecting drugs, these made up 13/17 of the IDU. In total, 47 percent (95 percent CIs 45-55 percent) of respondents who reported injecting also reported sharing needles within the last week. Sexual intercourse while in prison was reported by 3.0 percent (95 percent CI 0.82-5.26 percent) of study respondents. One-third of non-injectors were unaware of the preventative role of condom use. This study suggests that despite harm reduction initiatives within Kerobokan prison HIV risk behavior continues and there is a considerable lack of awareness of the importance of condom use in preventing HIV. The authors relied on self-reported risk behavior that may be subject to reporting bias. The sampling strategy may not reflect the true ratio inmates using or not using narcotics. The current harm reduction approach, including methadone substitution treatment should be optimized within the Indonesian prison setting. This is the first study reporting HIV-related risk behavior from an Indonesian prison with an established methadone substitution program.

Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

1987-02-01

The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150

Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

1987-02-01

The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150.

Reduction of risk level as one of the main challenges of development in covered karst regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Makhnatov Stanislav A.

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The paper describes the experience of application of the residual karst risk concept, and presents coefficients of karst risk level reduction for planning constructional karst-protection. Practical experience of design for karstified territories of Nizhny Novgorod region demonstrates that special research of the interaction between constructions and foundations is required. Numerous accidents can serve vivid examples proving the need. I2n this situation it is important to approach the issue of safety in a proper way, taking into account probable economic, environmental and social damage. The problem can be solved by introduction of the karst risk level parameter, which permits to take into consideration constructional characteristics of objects (design philosophy, service life, as well as conditions and mechanisms of interaction between the foundation and the construction (sinkholes, local subsidence, karst-suffosion deformations, etc.. The importance of risk reduction is highlighted by current Russian Federal laws. Depending on karst risk level adequate karst-protection should be performed. For building projects, reduction of karst risk to a permissible level (conventionally equal to 1 is one of the most important research challenges of the karstified territories development, and its solution permits to plan appropriate karst protection measures.

Merging Cultural Heritage Assessments with Risk Reduction and Disaster Recovery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bojsen, Ann Kristina Mikkelsen

heritage. These limitations serve as motivation for the introduction of the ACTOR framework (Assessing Cultural Threats, Obstacles and Resilience) ACTOR aims at merging cultural heritage assessments with risk reduction and disaster recovery, and provide disaster management students with a learning......Abstract There is a general professional consensus that vulnerability and risk assessments are crucial tasks in any serious attempt to substantially reduce disaster losses and enhance the reconciliation or recovery in the post event phase. However, cultural heritage is often considered...... as an overarching element that should be assessed, rather than a permanent key component of the assessments. Research in disaster management noticeably illustrates how cultural heritage is increasingly at risk from disasters caused by natural and human-made hazards, as well as the effects of climate change. Still...

NASA Propulsion Concept Studies and Risk Reduction Activities for Resource Prospector Lander

Science.gov (United States)

Trinh, Huu P.; Williams, Hunter; Burnside, Chris

2015-01-01

The trade study has led to the selection of propulsion concept with the lowest cost and net lowest risk -Government-owned, flight qualified components -Meet mission requirements although the configuration is not optimized. Risk reduction activities have provided an opportunity -Implement design improvements while development with the early-test approach. -Gain knowledge on the operation and identify operation limit -Data to anchor analytical models for future flight designs; The propulsion system cold flow tests series have provided valuable data for future design. -The pressure surge from the system priming and waterhammer within component operation limits. -Enable to optimize the ullage volume to reduce the propellant tank mass; RS-34 hot fire tests have successfully demonstrated of using the engines for the RP mission -No degradation of performance due to extended storage life of the hardware. -Enable to operate the engine for RP flight mission scenarios, outside of the qualification regime. -Provide extended data for the thermal and GNC designs. Significant progress has been made on NASA propulsion concept design and risk reductions for Resource Prospector lander.

Short and long term efficiencies of debris risk reduction measures: Application to a European LEO mission

Science.gov (United States)

Lang, T.; Kervarc, R.; Bertrand, S.; Carle, P.; Donath, T.; Destefanis, R.; Grassi, L.; Tiboldo, F.; Schäfer, F.; Kempf, S.; Gelhaus, J.

2015-01-01

Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment. According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By

Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, D. E.

2013-04-01

This paper examines the development over historical time of the meaning and uses of the term resilience. The objective is to deepen our understanding of how the term came to be adopted in disaster risk reduction and resolve some of the conflicts and controversies that have arisen when it has been used. The paper traces the development of resilience through the sciences, humanities, and legal and political spheres. It considers how mechanics passed the word to ecology and psychology, and how from there it was adopted by social research and sustainability science. As other authors have noted, as a concept, resilience involves some potentially serious conflicts or contradictions, for example between stability and dynamism, or between dynamic equilibrium (homeostasis) and evolution. Moreover, although the resilience concept works quite well within the confines of General Systems Theory, in situations in which a systems formulation inhibits rather than fosters explanation, a different interpretation of the term is warranted. This may be the case for disaster risk reduction, which involves transformation rather than preservation of the ''state of the system''. The article concludes that the modern conception of resilience derives benefit from a rich history of meanings and applications, but that it is dangerous - or at least potentially disappointing - to read to much into the term as a model and a paradigm. Sagitta in lapidem numquam figitur, interdum resiliens percutit dirigentem. ("An arrow never lodges in a stone: often it recoils upon its sender.") St. John Chrysostom (c. 347-407), Archbishop of Constantinople.

Risk reduction and the privatization option: First principles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bjornstad, D.J.; Jones, D.W.; Russell, M.; Cummings, R.C.; Valdez, G.; Duemmer, C.L.

1997-01-01

The Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) faces a challenging mission. To increase efficiency, EM is undertaking a number of highly innovative initiatives--two of which are of particular importance to the present study. One is the 2006 Plan, a planning and budgeting process that seeks to convert the clean-up program from a temporally and fiscally open-ended endeavor to a strictly bounded one, with firm commitments over a decade-long horizon. The second is a major overhauling of the management and contracting practices that define the relationship between the Department and the private sector, aimed at cost reduction by increasing firms' responsibilities and profit opportunities and reducing DOE's direct participation in management practices and decisions. The goal of this paper is to provide an independent perspective on how EM should create new management practices to deal with private sector partners that are motivated by financial incentives. It seeks to ground this perspective in real world concerns--the background of the clean-up effort, the very difficult technical challenges it faces, the very real threats to environment, health and safety that have now been juxtaposed with financial drivers, and the constraints imposed by government's unique business practices and public responsibilities. The approach is to raise issues through application of first principles. The paper is targeted at the EM policy officer who must implement the joint visions of the 2006 plan and privatization within the context of the tradeoff between terminal risk reduction and interim risk management

Risk reduction and the privatization option: First principles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bjornstad, D.J.; Jones, D.W.; Russell, M. [Joint Inst. for Energy and Environment, Knoxville, TN (United States); Cummings, R.C.; Valdez, G. [Georgia State Univ., Atlanta, GA (United States); Duemmer, C.L. [Hull, Duemmer and Garland (United States)

1997-06-25

The Department of Energy`s Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) faces a challenging mission. To increase efficiency, EM is undertaking a number of highly innovative initiatives--two of which are of particular importance to the present study. One is the 2006 Plan, a planning and budgeting process that seeks to convert the clean-up program from a temporally and fiscally open-ended endeavor to a strictly bounded one, with firm commitments over a decade-long horizon. The second is a major overhauling of the management and contracting practices that define the relationship between the Department and the private sector, aimed at cost reduction by increasing firms` responsibilities and profit opportunities and reducing DOE`s direct participation in management practices and decisions. The goal of this paper is to provide an independent perspective on how EM should create new management practices to deal with private sector partners that are motivated by financial incentives. It seeks to ground this perspective in real world concerns--the background of the clean-up effort, the very difficult technical challenges it faces, the very real threats to environment, health and safety that have now been juxtaposed with financial drivers, and the constraints imposed by government`s unique business practices and public responsibilities. The approach is to raise issues through application of first principles. The paper is targeted at the EM policy officer who must implement the joint visions of the 2006 plan and privatization within the context of the tradeoff between terminal risk reduction and interim risk management.

Program for Volcanic Risk Reduction in the Americas: Translation of Science into Policy and Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Mangan, Margaret; Pierson, Thomas; Wilkinson, Stuart; Westby, Elizabeth; Driedger, Carolyn; Ewert, John

2016-04-01

In 2013, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Agency for International Development/Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) inaugurated Volcanic Risk Reduction in the Americas, a program that brings together binational delegations of scientists, civil authorities, and emergency response managers to discuss the challenges of integrating volcano science into crisis response and risk reduction practices. During reciprocal visits, delegations tour areas impacted by volcanic unrest and/or eruption, meet with affected communities, and exchange insights and best practices. The 2013 exchange focused on hazards at Mount Rainier (Washington, USA) and Nevado del Ruiz (Caldas/Tolima, Colombia). Both of these volcanoes are highly susceptible to large volcanic mudflows (lahars). The Colombia-USA exchange allowed participants to share insights on lahar warning systems, self-evacuation planning, and effective education programs for at-risk communities. [See Driedger and Ewert (2015) Abstract 76171 presented at 2015 Fall AGU, San Francisco, Calif., Dec 14-18]. The second exchange, in 2015, took place between the USA and Chile, focusing on the Long Valley volcanic region (California, USA) and Chaitén volcano (Lagos, Chile) - both are centers of rhyolite volcanism. The high viscosity of rhyolite magma can cause explosive eruptions with widespread destruction. The rare but catastrophic "super eruptions" of the world have largely been the result of rhyolite volcanism. Chaitén produced the world's first explosive rhyolite eruption in the age of modern volcano monitoring in 2008-2009. Rhyolite eruptions of similar scale and style have occurred frequently in the Long Valley volcanic region, most recently about 600 years ago. The explosivity and relative rarity of rhyolite eruptions create unique challenges to risk reduction efforts. The recent Chaitén eruption was unexpected - little was known of Chaitén's eruptive history, and because of this, monitoring

Takotsubo Cardiomyopathy: A Long Term Follow-up Shows Benefit with Risk Factor Reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Koroush Khalighi

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Only sparse data was available on long-term of Takotusbo Cardiomyopathy (TC. Previous studies suggested prognosis is not necessarily benign. We report the long-term follow-up of 12 TC patients actively managed with risk factor reduction. Retrospective analysis of all patients diagnosed with TC at our hospital between 1998 and 2010. We identified 12 patients with TC among 1651 cases of emergent left heart catheterization over 12 years. Mean follow-up time was 8.3 ± 3.6 years. All were female, 87% had hypertension, 25% had history of Coronary Artery Disease (CAD, 67% had hyperlipidemia, 44% had some preceding emotional trauma, and 44% had some physical/physiological stress. Previous studies have shown that over 50% of TC patients experience future cardiac events, and 10% have a recurrence of TC. Patients were prescribed therapeutic lifestyle changes (TLC and guideline directed medical therapy (GDMT for aggressive risk factor reduction. TLC included diet, exercise, and cardiac rehabilitation. GDMT often included aspirin, beta-blockers, ACE-inhibitors, and statins. Follow-up echocardiograms showed recovery and maintenance of the ejection fraction. There was no cardiac mortality and no recurrences of TC. Aggressive risk factor reduction with TLC and GDMT may be effective in improving the long term outcomes of patients with TC.

Ibrutinib-associated bleeding: pathogenesis, management and risk reduction strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Shatzel, J J; Olson, S R; Tao, D L; McCarty, O J T; Danilov, A V; DeLoughery, T G

2017-05-01

Ibrutinib is an irreversible inhibitor of Bruton's tyrosine kinase (Btk) that has proven to be an effective therapeutic agent for multiple B-cell-mediated lymphoproliferative disorders. Ibrutinib, however, carries an increased bleeding risk compared with standard chemotherapy. Bleeding events range from minor mucocutaneous bleeding to life-threatening hemorrhage, due in large part to the effects of ibrutinib on several distinct platelet signaling pathways. There is currently a minimal amount of data to guide clinicians regarding the use of ibrutinib in patients at high risk of bleeding or on anticoagulant or antiplatelet therapy. In addition, the potential cardiovascular protective effects of ibrutinib monotherapy in patients at risk of vascular disease are unknown. Patients should be cautioned against using non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, fish oils, vitamin E and aspirin-containing products, and consider replacing ibrutinib with a different agent if dual antiplatelet therapy is indicated. Patients should not take vitamin K antagonists concurrently with ibrutinib; direct oral anticoagulants should be used if extended anticoagulation is strongly indicated. In this review, we describe the pathophysiology of ibrutinib-mediated bleeding and suggest risk reduction strategies for common clinical scenarios associated with ibrutinib. © 2017 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Risk reduction in a changing insurance climate: examples from the US and UK

Science.gov (United States)

Horn, Diane; McShane, Michael

2015-04-01

Coastal cities face a range of increasingly severe challenges as sea level rises, and adaptation to future flood risk will require more than structural defences. Many cities will not be able to rely solely on engineering structures for protection and will need to develop a suite of policy responses to increase their resilience to impacts of rising sea level. Insurance can be used as a risk-sharing mechanism to encourage adaptation to sea level rise, using pricing or restrictions on availability of cover to discourage new development in flood risk areas or to encourage the uptake of flood resilience measures. We draw on flood insurance policy lessons learned from the United States and the United Kingdom to propose risk-sharing among private insurers/reinsurers, government, and policyholders to alleviate major issues of the current programs, while still maintaining a holistic approach to managing flood risk. The UK and the US are almost polar opposites in the way flood insurance is implemented. Flood insurance in the US is fully public and in the UK fully private; however, in both countries the participants feel that the established system is unsustainable. In the US, flood coverage is excluded from property policies provided by private insurers, and is only available through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), with the federal government acting as insurer of last resort. Flood risk reduction has been part of the NFIP remit since the introduction of the program in 1968. Following massive payments for flood claims related primarily to Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, the NFIP is approximately 26 billion in debt, prompting calls to bring private insurance back into the flood insurance business. Two major Congressional modifications to the NFIP in 2012 and 2014 have pushed the contradictory goals of fully risk-based, yet affordable premiums. The private market has not been significantly involved in a risk-bearing role, but that is changing as private insurers

Fuzzy Relational Databases: Representational Issues and Reduction Using Similarity Measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Prade, Henri; Testemale, Claudette

1987-01-01

Compares and expands upon two approaches to dealing with fuzzy relational databases. The proposed similarity measure is based on a fuzzy Hausdorff distance and estimates the mismatch between two possibility distributions using a reduction process. The consequences of the reduction process on query evaluation are studied. (Author/EM)

Anesthesiologist- and System-Related Risk Factors for Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Anesthesia-Related Cardiac Arrest.

Science.gov (United States)

Zgleszewski, Steven E; Graham, Dionne A; Hickey, Paul R; Brustowicz, Robert M; Odegard, Kirsten C; Koka, Rahul; Seefelder, Christian; Navedo, Andres T; Randolph, Adrienne G

2016-02-01

Pediatric anesthesia-related cardiac arrest (ARCA) is an uncommon but potentially preventable adverse event. Infants and children with more severe underlying disease are at highest risk. We aimed to identify system- and anesthesiologist-related risk factors for ARCA. We analyzed a prospectively collected patient cohort data set of anesthetics administered from 2000 to 2011 to children at a large tertiary pediatric hospital. Pre-procedure systemic disease level was characterized by ASA physical status (ASA-PS). Two reviewers independently reviewed cardiac arrests and categorized their anesthesia relatedness. Factors associated with ARCA in the univariate analyses were identified for reevaluation after adjustment for patient age and ASA-PS. Cardiac arrest occurred in 142 of 276,209 anesthetics (incidence 5.1/10,000 anesthetics); 72 (2.6/10,000 anesthetics) were classified as anesthesia-related. In the univariate analyses, risk of ARCA was much higher in cardiac patients and for anesthesiologists with lower annual caseload and/or fewer annual days delivering anesthetics (all P risk adjustment for ASA-PS ≥ III and age ≤ 6 months, however, the association with lower annual days delivering anesthetics remained (P = 0.03), but the other factors were no longer significant. Case-mix explained most associations between higher risk of pediatric ARCA and anesthesiologist-related variables at our institution, but the association with fewer annual days delivering anesthetics remained. Our findings highlight the need for rigorous adjustment for patient risk factors in anesthesia patient safety studies.

Relative Error Model Reduction via Time-Weighted Balanced Stochastic Singular Perturbation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tahavori, Maryamsadat; Shaker, Hamid Reza

2012-01-01

A new mixed method for relative error model reduction of linear time invariant (LTI) systems is proposed in this paper. This order reduction technique is mainly based upon time-weighted balanced stochastic model reduction method and singular perturbation model reduction technique. Compared...... by using the concept and properties of the reciprocal systems. The results are further illustrated by two practical numerical examples: a model of CD player and a model of the atmospheric storm track....

Promoting flood risk reduction: The role of insurance in Germany and England

Science.gov (United States)

Surminski, Swenja; Thieken, Annegret H.

2017-10-01

Improving society's ability to prepare for, respond to and recover from flooding requires integrated, anticipatory flood risk management (FRM). However, most countries still focus their efforts on responding to flooding events if and when they occur rather than addressing their current and future vulnerability to flooding. Flood insurance is one mechanism that could promote a more ex ante approach to risk by supporting risk reduction activities. This paper uses an adapted version of Easton's System Theory to investigate the role of insurance for FRM in Germany and England. We introduce an anticipatory FRM framework, which allows flood insurance to be considered as part of a broader policy field. We analyze if and how flood insurance can catalyze a change toward a more anticipatory approach to FRM. In particular we consider insurance's role in influencing five key components of anticipatory FRM: risk knowledge, prevention through better planning, property-level protection measures, structural protection and preparedness (for response). We find that in both countries FRM is still a reactive, event-driven process, while anticipatory FRM remains underdeveloped. Collaboration between insurers and FRM decision-makers has already been successful, for example in improving risk knowledge and awareness, while in other areas insurance acts as a disincentive for more risk reduction action. In both countries there is evidence that insurance can play a significant role in encouraging anticipatory FRM, but this remains underutilized. Effective collaboration between insurers and government should not be seen as a cost, but as an investment to secure future insurability through flood resilience.

Risk Aversion Relates to Cognitive Ability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

2016-01-01

Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making, rather than to risk preferences....

Risk aversion relates to cognitive ability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making rather than to risk preferences....

SORL1 rs1699102 polymorphism modulates age-related cognitive decline and gray matter volume reduction in non-demented individuals.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, He; Lv, Chenlong; Yang, Caishui; Wei, Dongfeng; Chen, Kewei; Li, Shaowu; Zhang, Zhanjun

2017-01-01

SORL1 rs1699102 is associated with the risk of late-onset Alzheimer's disease. However, the effects of this single nucleotide polymorphism on cognition and brain structure during normal aging are unclear. This study aimed to examine the effects of the rs1699102 polymorphism on age-related cognitive decline and cortical gray matter reduction in the Chinese Han population. A total of 780 non-demented adults completed a battery of neuropsychological tests. High-resolution T1-weighted structural magnetic resonance imaging data from 89 of these subjects were also collected using a Siemens Trio 3.0 Tesla scanner. The T allele carriers displayed an accelerated age-related change in episodic memory and processing speed tests relative to the CC genotype. A similar pattern was observed in the age-related gray matter volume (GMV) reduction of the right middle temporal pole. The GMV in this region was significantly positively correlated with the episodic memory scores. The SORL1 gene rs1699102 polymorphism has been found to be associated with age-related cognitive decline and GMV reduction of the right middle temporal pole in older adults. These findings elucidate how the SORL1 variants shape the neural system to modulate age-related cognitive decline and support the hypothesis that SORL1 may represent a candidate gene for late-onset Alzheimer's disease. © 2016 EAN.

Landslide risk reduction strategies: an inventory for the Global South

Science.gov (United States)

Maes, Jan; Kervyn, Matthieu; Vranken, Liesbet; Dewitte, Olivier; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Mertens, Kewan; Jacobs, Liesbet; Poesen, Jean

2015-04-01

Landslides constitute a serious problem globally. Moreover, landslide impact remains underestimated especially in the Global South. It is precisely there where the largest impact is experienced. An overview of measures taken to reduce risk of landslides in the Global South is however still lacking. Because in many countries of the Global South disaster risk reduction (DRR) is at an emerging stage, it is crucial to monitor the ongoing efforts (e.g. discussions on the Post-2015 Framework for DRR). The first objective of this study is to make an inventory of techniques and strategies that are applied to reduce risk from landslides in tropical countries. The second objective is to investigate what are the main bottlenecks for implementation of DRR strategies. In order to achieve these objectives, a review of both scientific and grey literature was conducted, supplemented with expert knowledge. The compilation of recommended and implemented DRR measures from landslide-prone tropical countries is based on an adapted classification proposed by the SafeLand project. According to Vaciago (2013), landslide risk can be reduced by either reducing the hazard, the vulnerability, the number or value of elements at risk or by sharing the residual risk. In addition, these measures can be combined with education and/or awareness raising and are influenced by governance structures and cultural beliefs. Global landslide datasets have been used to identify landslide-prone countries, augmented with region-specific datasets. Countries located in the tropics were selected in order to include landslide-prone countries with a different Human Development Index (HDI) but with a similar climate. Preliminary results support the statement made by Anderson (2013) that although the importance of shifting from post-disaster emergency actions to pre-disaster mitigation is acknowledged, in practice this paradigm shift seems rather limited. It is expected that this is especially the case in countries

Laypersons' understanding of relative risk reductions: randomised cross-sectional study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sorensen, Lene; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Kristiansen, Ivar S

2008-01-01

of a representative sample (n = 1,519) of lay people with mean age 59 (range 40-98) years in Denmark. In addition to demographic information, respondents were asked to consider a hypothetical drug treatment to prevent heart attack. Its effectiveness was randomly presented as RRR of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or 60 percent......, and half of the respondents were presented with quantitative information on the baseline risk of heart attack. The respondents had also been asked whether they were diagnosed with hypercholesterolemia or had experienced a heart attack. RESULTS: In total, 873 (58%) of the respondents consented...

NHS health checks through general practice: randomised trial of population cardiovascular risk reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cochrane Thomas

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The global burden of the major vascular diseases is projected to rise and to remain the dominant non-communicable disease cluster well into the twenty first century. The Department of Health in England has developed the NHS Health Check service as a policy initiative to reduce population vascular disease risk. The aims of this study were to monitor population changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors over the first year of the new service and to assess the value of tailored lifestyle support, including motivational interview with ongoing support and referral to other services. Methods Randomised trial comparing NHS Health Check service only with NHS Health Check service plus additional lifestyle support in Stoke on Trent, England. Thirty eight general practices and 601 (365 usual care, 236 additional lifestyle support patients were recruited and randomised independently between September 2009 and February 2010. Changes in population CVD risk between baseline and one year follow-up were compared, using intention-to-treat analysis. The primary outcome was the Framingham 10 year CVD risk score. Secondary outcomes included individual modifiable risk measures and prevalence of individual risk categories. Additional lifestyle support included referral to a lifestyle coach and free sessions as needed for: weight management, physical activity, cook and eat and positive thinking. Results Average population CVD risk decreased from 32.9% to 29.4% (p Conclusions The NHS Health Check service in Stoke on Trent resulted in significant reduction in estimated population CVD risk. There was no evidence of further benefit of the additional lifestyle support services in terms of absolute CVD risk reduction.

The estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction in recent light-duty vehicles on U.S. societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled.

Science.gov (United States)

Wenzel, Tom

2013-10-01

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently updated its 2003 and 2010 logistic regression analyses of the effect of a reduction in light-duty vehicle mass on US societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT; Kahane, 2012). Societal fatality risk includes the risk to both the occupants of the case vehicle as well as any crash partner or pedestrians. The current analysis is the most thorough investigation of this issue to date. This paper replicates the Kahane analysis and extends it by testing the sensitivity of his results to changes in the definition of risk, and the data and control variables used in the regression models. An assessment by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) indicates that the estimated effect of mass reduction on risk is smaller than in Kahane's previous studies, and is statistically non-significant for all but the lightest cars (Wenzel, 2012a). The estimated effects of a reduction in mass or footprint (i.e. wheelbase times track width) are small relative to other vehicle, driver, and crash variables used in the regression models. The recent historical correlation between mass and footprint is not so large to prohibit including both variables in the same regression model; excluding footprint from the model, i.e. allowing footprint to decrease with mass, increases the estimated detrimental effect of mass reduction on risk in cars and crossover utility vehicles (CUVs)/minivans, but has virtually no effect on light trucks. Analysis by footprint deciles indicates that risk does not consistently increase with reduced mass for vehicles of similar footprint. Finally, the estimated effects of mass and footprint reduction are sensitive to the measure of exposure used (fatalities per induced exposure crash, rather than per VMT), as well as other changes in the data or control variables used. It appears that the safety penalty from lower mass can be mitigated with careful vehicle design, and that manufacturers can

Participatory three dimensional mapping for the preparation of landslide disaster risk reduction program

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Kusratmoko, Eko; Wibowo, Adi; Cholid, Sofyan; Pin, Tjiong Giok

2017-07-01

This paper presents the results of applications of participatory three dimensional mapping (P3DM) method for fqcilitating the people of Cibanteng' village to compile a landslide disaster risk reduction program. Physical factors, as high rainfall, topography, geology and land use, and coupled with the condition of demographic and social-economic factors, make up the Cibanteng region highly susceptible to landslides. During the years 2013-2014 has happened 2 times landslides which caused economic losses, as a result of damage to homes and farmland. Participatory mapping is one part of the activities of community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR)), because of the involvement of local communities is a prerequisite for sustainable disaster risk reduction. In this activity, participatory mapping method are done in two ways, namely participatory two-dimensional mapping (P2DM) with a focus on mapping of disaster areas and participatory three-dimensional mapping (P3DM) with a focus on the entire territory of the village. Based on the results P3DM, the ability of the communities in understanding the village environment spatially well-tested and honed, so as to facilitate the preparation of the CBDRR programs. Furthermore, the P3DM method can be applied to another disaster areas, due to it becomes a medium of effective dialogue between all levels of involved communities.

HIV Risk Reduction Among Young Adult Chronic Psychiatric Patients

Science.gov (United States)

1990-08-28

emotional language to convey information on risk reduction. Common myths concerning transmission are presented and the audience is specifically told that...current study include: ’Can contact with semen (cum) from the penis result In AIDS?’,’ Can a person get AIDS from vaginal fluids in a woman’s vagina ? Can...hands. It doesn’t like being exposed to sunlight or air. Female: The AIDS virus lives inside the human body, in the blood, in a woman’s vagina and

Fuel related risks; Braenslerisker

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Englund, Jessica; Sernhed, Kerstin; Nystroem, Olle; Graveus, Frank (Grontmij AB, (Sweden))

2012-02-15

The project, within which this work report was prepared, aimed to complement the Vaermeforsk publication 'Handbook of fuels' on fuel related risks and measures to reduce the risks. The fuels examined in this project where the fuels included in the first version of the handbook from 2005 plus four additional fuels that will be included in the second and next edition of the handbook. Following fuels were included: woodfuels (sawdust, wood chips, powder, briquettes), slash, recycled wood, salix, bark, hardwood, stumps, straw, reed canary grass, hemp, cereal, cereal waste, olive waste, cocoa beans, citrus waste, shea, sludge, forest industrial sludge, manure, Paper Wood Plastic, tyre, leather waste, cardboard rejects, meat and bone meal, liquid animal and vegetable wastes, tall oil pitch, peat, residues from food industry, biomal (including slaughterhouse waste) and lignin. The report includes two main chapters; a general risk chapter and a chapter of fuel specific risks. The first one deals with the general concept of risk, it highlights laws and rules relevant for risk management and it discuss general risks that are related to the different steps of fuel handling, i.e. unloading, storing, processing the fuel, transportation within the facility, combustion and handling of ashes. The information that was used to produce this chapter was gathered through a literature review, site visits, and the project group's experience from risk management. The other main chapter deals with fuel-specific risks and the measures to reduce the risks for the steps of unloading, storing, processing the fuel, internal transportation, combustion and handling of the ashes. Risks and measures were considered for all the biofuels included in the second version in the handbook of fuels. Information about the risks and risk management was gathered through interviews with people working with different kinds of fuels in electricity and heat plants in Sweden. The information from

Disaster risk reduction in developing countries: costs, benefits and institutions.

Science.gov (United States)

Kenny, Charles

2012-10-01

Some 60,000 people worldwide die annually in natural disasters, mostly due to the collapse of buildings in earthquakes, and primarily in the developing world. This is despite the fact that engineering solutions exist that can eliminate almost completely the risk of such deaths. Why is this? The solutions are expensive and technically demanding, so their cost-benefit ratio often is unfavourable as compared to other interventions. Nonetheless, there are various public disaster risk reduction interventions that are highly cost-effective. That such interventions frequently remain unimplemented or ineffectively executed points to a role for issues of political economy. Building regulations in developing countries appear to have limited impact in many cases, perhaps because of inadequate capacity and corruption. Public construction often is of low quality, perhaps for similar reasons. This suggests the need for approaches that emphasise simple and limited disaster risk regulation covering only the most at-risk structures-and that, preferably, non-experts can monitor-as well as numerous transparency and oversight mechanisms for public construction projects. © 2012 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2012.

Recent partner violence and sexual and drug-related STI/HIV risk among adolescent and young adult women attending family planning clinics

Science.gov (United States)

Decker, Michele R.; Miller, Elizabeth; McCauley, Heather L.; Tancredi, Daniel J.; Anderson, Heather; Levenson, Rebecca R.; Silverman, Jay G.

2014-01-01

Background/Objectives Adolescent and young adult women are at high risk for both STI/HIV and intimate partner violence (IPV). We evaluate the prevalence of IPV in the past three months and its associations with STI/HIV risk, STI, and related care-seeking over the same time period. Methods Female family planning clinic patients ages 16–29 (n=3,504) participated in a cross-sectional survey in 2011–2012 as a baseline assessment for an intervention study. We examined associations of recent IPV with sexual and drug-related STI/HIV risk behavior, self-reported STI, and STI-related clinical care seeking via logistic regression. Results Recent physical or sexual IPV (prevalence 11%) was associated with recent sexual and drug-related STI/HIV risk, specifically unprotected vaginal sex (AOR 1.93, 95% CI 1.52, 2.44), unprotected anal sex (AOR 2.22, 95% CI 1.51, 3.27) and injection drug use, both their own (AOR 3.39, 95% CI 1.47, 7.79) and their partner’s (AOR 3.85, 1.91, 7.75). IPV was also linked with coercive sexual risk: involuntary condom non-use (AOR 1.87, 95% CI 1.51, 2.33), and fears of requesting condoms (AOR 4.15, 95% CI 2.73, 6.30) and refusing sex (AOR 11.84, 95% CI 7.59, 18.45). STI-related care-seeking was also more common among those abused (AOR 2.49, 95% CI 1.87, 3.31). Conclusions Recent IPV is concurrent with sexual and drug-related STI/HIV risk, including coercive sexual risk, thus compromising women’s agency in STI/HIV risk reduction. Clinical risk assessments should broaden to include unprotected heterosexual anal sex, coercive sexual risk, and IPV, and should promote safety and harm reduction. PMID:24234072

Reductions in Transmission Risk Behaviors in HIV-Positive Clients Receiving Prevention Case Management Services: Findings from a Community Demonstration Project

Science.gov (United States)

Gasiorowicz, Mari; Llanas, Michelle R.; DiFranceisco, Wayne; Benotsch, Eric G.; Brondino, Michael J.; Catz, Sheryl L.; Hoxie, Neil J.; Reiser, William J.; Vergeront, James M.

2005-01-01

Prevention case management (PCM) for HIV-infected persons is an HIV risk reduction intervention designed to assist clients who are aware of their HIV infection and who continue to engage in risk transmission behaviors. PCM combines individual risk reduction counseling with case management to address the psychosocial factors affecting HIV…

The relative magnitude of the impacts and effects of GHG-related emission reductions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiotti, Q.; Urquizo, N.

2000-01-01

A preliminary assessment of the current knowledge related to the co-benefits associated with climate change mitigation was provided in this document. One of the benefits of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is the reduction of other pollutants like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds, particulate matter, ground-level ozone, heavy metals and other toxic pollutants. Since these pollutants have an effect on acid deposition, ozone depletion and air quality, the environment, social welfare and human health, this paper provided an initial outline of the complex processes, interactions and uncertainties associated with this issue. Fossil fuels represent the major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Canada. The reduction of emissions of GHG could have an impact on the Long Range Transport of air toxic substances, would help increase oxygen concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere, and lead to less carbon monoxide being released in the atmosphere, among others effects. Reductions of GHG emissions would also have an impact on ecosystems by reducing ground-level ozone concentrations. There would be less acid deposition and more dissolved organic carbon, allowing less ultraviolet-B penetration in aquatic ecosystems. In the case of human health, improved air quality impacts on the avoidance of premature mortality and reduced morbidity. Numerous other co-benefits were listed and discussed in this document. The first section stated the purpose and objectives. In section 2, that authors described the science and policy context and discussed building an analytical framework in section 3. The impact of GHG emission reductions on atmospheric pollution and ecosystems was dealt with in section 4 and section 5 was devoted to providing an assessment of the relative magnitude of effects. In section 6, the significance of scope was reviewed, and the authors concluded with section 7 in which they discussed the next steps: phase II

The roles of exercise and fall risk reduction in the prevention of osteoporosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Henderson, N K; White, C P; Eisman, J A

1998-06-01

In summary, the optimal model for the prevention of osteoporotic fractures includes maximization and maintenance of bone strength and minimization of trauma. Numerous determinants of each have been identified, but further work to develop preventative strategies based on these determinants remains to be undertaken. Physical activity is a determinant of peak BMD. There also is evidence that activity during growth modulates the external geometry and trabecular architecture, potentially enhancing skeletal strength, while during the adult years activity may reduce age-related bone loss. The magnitude of the effect of a 7% to 8% increase in peak BMD, if maintained through the adult years, could translate to a 1.5-fold reduction in fracture risk. Moreover, in the older population, appropriate forms of exercise could reduce the risk of falling and, thus, further reduce fracture risk. These data must be considered as preliminary in view of the paucity of long-term fracture outcome data from randomized clinical trials. However, current information suggests that the optimal form of exercise to achieve these objectives may vary through life. Vigorous physical activity (including weight-bearing, resistance, and impact components) during childhood may maximize peak BMD. This type of activity seems optimal through the young adult years, but as inevitable age-related degeneration occurs, activity modification to limit the impact component of exercise may become necessary. In the elderly, progressive strength training has been demonstrated to be a safe and effective form of exercise that reduces risk factors for falling and may also enhance BMD. In the frail elderly, activity to improve balance and confidence also may be valuable. Group activities such as Tai Chi may be cost-effective. Precise prescriptions must await the outcome of well-designed, controlled longitudinal studies that include fracture as an outcome. However, increased physical activity seems to be a sensible

Development of the Motivation to Change Lifestyle and Health Behaviours for Dementia Risk Reduction Scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarang Kim

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Background and Aims: It is not yet understood how attitudes concerning dementia risk may affect motivation to change health behaviours and lifestyle. This study was designed to develop a reliable and valid theory-based measure to understand beliefs underpinning the lifestyle and health behavioural changes needed for dementia risk reduction. Methods: 617 participants aged ≥50 years completed a theory-based questionnaire, namely, the Motivation to Change Lifestyle and Health Behaviours for Dementia Risk Reduction (MCLHB-DRR scale. The MCLHB-DRR consists of 53 items, reflecting seven subscales of the Health Belief Model. Results: Confirmatory factor analysis was performed and revealed that a seven-factor solution with 27 items fitted the data (comparative fit index = 0.920, root-mean-square error of approximation = 0.047 better than the original 53 items. Internal reliability (α = 0.608-0.864 and test-retest reliability (α = 0.552-0.776 were moderate to high. Measurement of invariance across gender and age was also demonstrated. Conclusions: These results propose that the MCLHB-DRR is a useful tool in assessing the beliefs and attitudes of males and females aged ≥50 years towards dementia risk reduction. This measure can be used in the development and evaluation of interventions aimed at dementia prevention.

Lifestyle Medicine-Related Cardiovascular Risk Factor Changes in Employees Participating in a Pharmacist-Run Risk Reduction Program

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongyue Qi

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease (CVD remains the leading cause of death among American adults accounting for approximately one-third of all deaths. It has been shown, however, that the actual causes of death are related to lifestyle behaviors such as tobacco use, poor diet and physical activity and alcohol consumption. A pharmacist-run employee health program, started in 2008, sought to lower CVD risk through the use of individualized lifestyle behavior programming, medication therapy management, and care coordination activities. Following one year of participation in the program, employee participants were shown to significantly increase exercise quantity (p < 0.001, fruit and vegetable consumption (p < 0.001, and decrease self-reported stress level (p = 0.006. The percentage of program participants simultaneously adherent to the recommended levels of exercise, combined fruit and vegetable intake and tobacco abstinence at one-year was 34.5% vs. 5.5% at baseline. This compares with only 5.1% of the U.S. population adherent to the same three behaviors. Pharmacists can positively impact healthy lifestyle behaviors when working in an employee health setting.

Social Media Use and Sexual Risk Reduction Behavior Among Minority Youth: Seeking Safe Sex Information.

Science.gov (United States)

Stevens, Robin; Gilliard-Matthews, Stacia; Dunaev, Jamie; Todhunter-Reid, Abigail; Brawner, Bridgette; Stewart, Jennifer

Sexual health is an important area of study-particularly for minority youth and youth living in disadvantaged neighborhoods. The purpose of the research was to examine the sources of sexual health information associated with youth adopting sexual risk reduction behaviors. Data collection took place in a small city in the Northeastern United States using cross-sectional behavioral surveys and modified venue-based sampling. Participants included 249 African American and Latino youth aged 13-24. Participants reported their sources of information about contraception and human immunodeficiency virus/sexually transmitted disease, such as TV/movies, parents, social media; their intentions to have sex; and condom and contraception use during their last sexual activity. Social media use, past pregnancy experience, past sexual history, age, and gender were also measured. Standard tests of bivariate association (chi-square and F tests) were used to examine initial associations between sexual risk reduction behavior and exposure to sexual risk reduction information on social media. Logistic regression models were used to test multivariate relationships between information sources and sexual risk reduction behavior. Youth who were exposed to sexual health messages on social media were 2.69 times (p < .05) and 2.49 times (p < .08) more likely to have used contraception or a condom at last intercourse, respectively. Parents, schools, or traditional media as information sources were not significantly associated with contractive use or condom use at last intercourse. Youth sexual behavior is increasingly informed by social media messages. Health practitioners should utilize social media as an important health promotion tool.

Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation bij passive fire protection

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Molag e.a., M. (Menso)

2009-01-01

The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquified Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protectionswas investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements

Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation by passive fire protection

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Paltrinieri, N.; Landucci, G.; Molag, M.; Bonvicini, S.; Spadoni, G.; Cozzani, V.

2009-01-01

The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protections was investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements

Pure meat – public perceptions of risk reduction strategies in meat production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Korzen, Sara Marie; Sandøe, Peter; Lassen, Jesper

2011-01-01

generally have an aversion to risk reduction strategies. Some variation was found, however, in the rejection of the strategies. Thus, more acceptable strategies are characterised by a low degree of technological interference, and by being close to the consumer’s experience in everyday life and/or familiar...

Mission Risk Reduction Regulatory Change Management

Science.gov (United States)

Scroggins, Sharon

2007-01-01

NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division supports NASA's mission to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research by integrating environmental considerations into programs and projects early-on, thereby proactively reducing NASA's exposure to institutional, programmatic and operational risk. As part of this effort, NASA established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) as a resource for detecting, analyzing, and communicating environmental regulatory risks to the NASA stakeholder community. The RRAC PC focuses on detecting emerging environmental regulations and other operational change drivers that may pose risks to NASA programs and facilities, and effectively communicating the potential risks. For example, regulatory change may restrict how and where certain activities or operations may be conducted. Regulatory change can also directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Regulatory change can result in significant adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities due to NASA's stringent performance requirements for materials and components related to human-rated space vehicles. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented a system for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the process utilized by the RRACPC to communicate regulatory change and the associated

Coordination of International Risk-Reduction Investigations by the Multilateral Human Research Panel for Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Charles, John B.; Bogomolov, Valery V.

2015-01-01

Effective use of the unique capabilities of the International Space Station (ISS) for risk reduction on future deep space missions involves preliminary work in analog environments to identify and evaluate the most promising techniques, interventions and treatments. This entails a consolidated multinational approach to biomedical research both on ISS and in ground analogs. The Multilateral Human Research Panel for Exploration (MHRPE) was chartered by the five ISS partners to recommend the best combination of partner investigations on ISS for risk reduction in the relatively short time available for ISS utilization. MHRPE will also make recommendations to funding agencies for appropriate preparatory analog work. In 2011, NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) and the Institute of Biomedical Problems (IBMP) of the Russian Academy of Science, acting for MHRPE, developed a joint US-Russian biomedical program for the 2015 one-year ISS mission (1YM) of American and Russian crewmembers. This was to evaluate the possibilities for multilateral research on ISS. An overlapping list of 16 HRP, 9 IBMP, 3 Japanese, 3 European and 1 Canadian investigations were selected to address risk-reduction goals in 7 categories: Functional Performance, Behavioral Health, Visual Impairment, Metabolism, Physical Capacity, Microbial and Human Factors. MHRPE intends to build on this bilateral foundation to recommend more fully-integrated multilateral investigations on future ISS missions commencing after the 1YM. MHRPE has also endorsed an on-going program of coordinated research on 6-month, one-year and 6-week missions ISS expeditions that is now under consideration by ISS managers. Preparatory work for these missions will require coordinated and collaborative campaigns especially in the psychological and psychosocial areas using analog isolation facilities in Houston, Köln and Moscow, and possibly elsewhere. The multilateral Human Analogs research working group (HANA) is the focal point of those

Risk reduction for nonmelanoma skin cancer with childhood sunscreen use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stern, R.S.; Weinstein, M.C.; Baker, S.G.

1986-01-01

Exposure to ultraviolet radiation is the principle cause of basal and squamous cell carcinomas of the skin, which are the most frequent tumors occurring in white residents of the United States. Using a mathematical model based on epidemiologic data, we quantified the potential benefits of using a sunscreen with a sun protective factor of 15 and estimate that regular use of such a sunscreen during the first 18 years of life would reduce the lifetime incidence of these tumors by 78%. Additional benefits of sunscreen use during childhood include reduced risk of sunburn, retarding the pace of skin aging, and possible reduction in melanoma risk. We recommend that pediatricians encourage sunscreen use and sun avoidance as a regular part of pediatric preventive health care

A Case Analysis of Disaster Risk Reduction Preparedness of Iloilo Province: Basis for A Comprehensive Intervention Program

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victoria D. Jurilla

2016-08-01

Full Text Available - This study determined the effectiveness of Disaster Risk Reduction Preparedness of Iloilo Province, Philippines in the areas of Dissemination, Implementation, and Resource Utilization and Operation as evaluated by the 390 citizens of the ten (10 selected municipalities from the five (5 Congressional Districts in the Province of Iloilo, Philippines. This descriptive method of research employed researcher-made instruments and random interviews. Descriptive statistics used were the mean and standard deviation while inferential statistics employed Ttest for independent samples and one-way analysis for variance set at .05 level of significances. Findings revealed that Disaster Risk Reduction Preparedness of Iloilo Province, Philippines is “more effective” in terms of dissemination, implementation, and resource utilization and operation according to the assessment of the 390 respondents of the ten (10 selected municipalities from the five (5 Congressional Districts when they were grouped as to personal variables. Finally, the findings revealed that three (3 out of ten (10 municipalities were very effective and among the five (5 districts, first district was very effective as to dissemination and resource utilization and operation of their respective Disaster Risk Reduction Preparedness Program but as a whole, Iloilo Province was more effective in its Disaster Risk Reduction Preparedness.

Quantifying the role of risk-taking behaviour in causation of serious road crash-related injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Cathy; McClure, Rod

2004-05-01

This study was designed to quantify the increased risk of road crash-related injury, which can be attributed to risk-taking behaviour. A case-control study was conducted to compare motor vehicle drivers (car and bike) who had been hospitalised for injuries following crashes with population-based controls. Cases were recruited prospectively over 12 months and controls were randomly selected from license holders (car and bike) living in the same geographical location as cases. A self-administered questionnaire was used to ascertain participants' driving behaviour, general risk-taking behaviour and selected demographic characteristics. After adjusting for demographic variables, number of years of driving and total distance driven per week, logistic regression analysis showed that a high risk acceptance was associated with an eight-fold increased risk of having a crash that resulted in serious injury (OR 7.8, 95% CI 4.2-15.8). The findings of this study support the suggestion that certain host factors increase the risk of crash-related serious injury. There would appear to be a reasonable argument for persisting with injury prevention programmes, which concentrate on host as well as environment risk factor reduction.

The effect of discounting, different mortality reduction schemes and predictive cohort life tables on risk acceptability criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rackwitz, Ruediger

2006-01-01

Technical facilities should be optimal with respect to benefits and cost. Optimization of technical facilities involving risks for human life and limb require an acceptability criterion and suitable discount rates both for the public and the operator depending on for whom the optimization is carried out. The life quality index is presented and embedded into modem socio-economic concepts. A general risk acceptability criterion is derived. The societal life saving cost to be used in optimization as life saving or compensation cost and the societal willingness-to-pay based on the societal value of a statistical life or on the societal life quality index are developed. Different mortality reduction schemes are studied. Also, predictive cohort life tables are derived and applied. Discount rates γ must be long-term averages in view of the time horizon of some 20 to more than 100 years for the facilities of interest and net of inflation and taxes. While the operator may use long-term averages from the financial market for his cost-benefit analysis the assessment of interest rates for investments of the public into risk reduction is more difficult. The classical Ramsey model decomposes the real interest rate (=output growth rate) into the rate of time preference of consumption and the rate of economical growth multiplied by the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption. It is proposed to use a relatively small interest rate of 3% implying a rate of time preference of consumption of about 1%. This appears intergenerationally acceptable from an ethical point of view. Risk-consequence curves are derived for an example

Teaching medical students cancer risk reduction nutrition counseling using a multimedia program.

Science.gov (United States)

Kolasa, K M; Jobe, A C; Miller, M G; Clay, M C

1999-03-01

There are many barriers to medical students receiving education about the linkage between nutrition and cancer, including the lack of role models and teachers and insufficient curricular time. We tested the use of a multimedia program as a possible solution to teaching diet-risk assessment and counseling skills. Images of Cancer Prevention, The Nutrition Link is a CD-ROM multimedia program that was developed and evaluated by 147 medical students. Pre-use and post-use surveys, computer log files, and recorded response sessions were used to determine the learner's 1) ease in using the program, 2) attitudes about the treatment of the content, 3) knowledge gain, and 4) attitudes about the role of physicians in nutrition assessment and counseling for cancer risk reduction. Students improved their knowledge of dietary guidelines for cancer risk reduction and made positive changes in their attitudes toward the role of physicians in dietary counseling. However, most students reported that they would not use the program unless it was required that they do so. The multimedia program was successful; it affected students' knowledge and attitudes concerning nutrition as a modifiable risk factor for some cancers. In addition, the design and delivery of the multimedia product was positively reviewed by the students for ease of access, message design, individualized instruction, and flexibility. Despite these favorable ratings, it was not clear that students would use the program unless required to do so.

REFLECTING ON THE PRACTICE OF INFANT MENTAL HEALTH AND THE REDUCTION OF RISK IN INFANCY AND EARLY PARENTHOOD: AN ESSAY.

Science.gov (United States)

Weatherston, Deborah J

2017-01-01

This essay discusses infant mental health (IMH) as well as its origins and relational framework. The author then reflects, professionally and personally, on the meaning of psychological vulnerability of boys under 5 years of age, the importance of early caregiving relationships to the reduction of risk, and implications for education and training in the IMH field. © 2016 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.

Polygenic Risk Score Identifies Subgroup With Higher Burden of Atherosclerosis and Greater Relative Benefit From Statin Therapy in the Primary Prevention Setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Natarajan, Pradeep; Young, Robin; Stitziel, Nathan O; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Baber, Usman; Mehran, Roxana; Sartori, Samantha; Fuster, Valentin; Reilly, Dermot F; Butterworth, Adam; Rader, Daniel J; Ford, Ian; Sattar, Naveed; Kathiresan, Sekar

2017-05-30

Relative risk reduction with statin therapy has been consistent across nearly all subgroups studied to date. However, in analyses of 2 randomized controlled primary prevention trials (ASCOT [Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Lipid-Lowering Arm] and JUPITER [Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: An Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin]), statin therapy led to a greater relative risk reduction among a subgroup at high genetic risk. Here, we aimed to confirm this observation in a third primary prevention randomized controlled trial. In addition, we assessed whether those at high genetic risk had a greater burden of subclinical coronary atherosclerosis. We studied participants from a randomized controlled trial of primary prevention with statin therapy (WOSCOPS [West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study]; n=4910) and 2 observational cohort studies (CARDIA [Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults] and BioImage; n=1154 and 4392, respectively). For each participant, we calculated a polygenic risk score derived from up to 57 common DNA sequence variants previously associated with coronary heart disease. We compared the relative efficacy of statin therapy in those at high genetic risk (top quintile of polygenic risk score) versus all others (WOSCOPS), as well as the association between the polygenic risk score and coronary artery calcification (CARDIA) and carotid artery plaque burden (BioImage). Among WOSCOPS trial participants at high genetic risk, statin therapy was associated with a relative risk reduction of 44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 22-60; P statin therapy was 3.6% (95% CI, 2.0-5.1) among those in the high genetic risk group and 1.3% (95% CI, 0.6-1.9) in all others. Each 1-SD increase in the polygenic risk score was associated with 1.32-fold (95% CI, 1.04-1.68) greater likelihood of having coronary artery calcification and 9.7% higher (95% CI, 2.2-17.8) burden of carotid plaque. Those at high genetic risk have a greater

Environmental Assessment: Bird Strike Risk Reduction at Laughlin Air Force Base, Texas

Science.gov (United States)

2008-01-01

mglkg in rats, 291 - 609 mglkg in mice, > 1000 mglkg in sheep , > 100 mglkg in dogs and > 1000 mglkg in rabbits (Pesticide Residues in Food-1987... vineyards . Wildl. Soc. Bull. 21:47-51. LAFB Strike Risk Reduction EA - 39 Gaines, T.B. 1969. Acute toxicity of pesticides. Toxicol. Appl. Pharmacol

Development of risk reduction behavioral counseling for Ebola virus disease survivors enrolled in the Sierra Leone Ebola Virus Persistence Study, 2015-2016.

Science.gov (United States)

Abad, Neetu; Malik, Tasneem; Ariyarajah, Archchun; Ongpin, Patricia; Hogben, Matthew; McDonald, Suzanna L R; Marrinan, Jaclyn; Massaquoi, Thomas; Thorson, Anna; Ervin, Elizabeth; Bernstein, Kyle; Ross, Christine; Liu, William J; Kroeger, Karen; Durski, Kara N; Broutet, Nathalie; Knust, Barbara; Deen, Gibrilla F

2017-09-01

During the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic, the public health community had concerns that sexual transmission of the Ebola virus (EBOV) from EVD survivors was a risk, due to EBOV persistence in body fluids of EVD survivors, particularly semen. The Sierra Leone Ebola Virus Persistence Study was initiated to investigate this risk by assessing EBOV persistence in numerous body fluids of EVD survivors and providing risk reduction counseling based on test results for semen, vaginal fluid, menstrual blood, urine, rectal fluid, sweat, tears, saliva, and breast milk. This publication describes implementation of the counseling protocol and the key lessons learned. The Ebola Virus Persistence Risk Reduction Behavioral Counseling Protocol was developed from a framework used to prevent transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. The framework helped to identify barriers to risk reduction and facilitated the development of a personalized risk-reduction plan, particularly around condom use and abstinence. Pre-test and post-test counseling sessions included risk reduction guidance, and post-test counseling was based on the participants' individual test results. The behavioral counseling protocol enabled study staff to translate the study's body fluid test results into individualized information for study participants. The Ebola Virus Persistence Risk Reduction Behavioral Counseling Protocol provided guidance to mitigate the risk of EBOV transmission from EVD survivors. It has since been shared with and adapted by other EVD survivor body fluid testing programs and studies in Ebola-affected countries.

Interdisciplinary approach for disaster risk reduction in Valtellina Valley, northern Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, Carolina; Blahut, Jan; Luna, Byron Quan; Poretti, Ilaria; Camera, Corrado; de Amicis, Mattia; Sterlacchini, Simone

2010-05-01

Inside the framework of the European research network Mountain Risks, an interdisciplinary research group has been working in the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (northern Italy). This area has been continuously affected by several mountain hazards such as landslides, debris flows and floods that directly affect the population, and in some cases caused several deaths and million euros of losses. An aim of the interdisciplinary work in this study area, is to integrate different scientific products of the research group, in the areas of risk assessment, management and governance, in order to generate, among others, risk reduction tools addressed to general public and stakeholders. Two types of phenomena have been particularly investigated: debris flows and floods. The scientific products range from modeling to mapping of hazard and risk, emergency planning based on real time decision support systems, surveying for the evaluation of risk perception and preparedness, among others. Outputs from medium scale hazard and risk modeling could be used for decision makers and spatial planners as well as civil protection authorities to have a general overview of the area and indentify hot spots for further detailed analysis. Subsequently, local scale analysis is necessary to define possible events and risk scenarios for emergency planning. As for the modeling of past events and new scenarios of debris flows, physical outputs were used as inputs into physical vulnerability assessment and quantitative risk analysis within dynamic runout models. On a pilot zone, the physical damage was quantified for each affected structure within the context of physical vulnerability and different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained. Prospective economic direct losses were estimated. For floods hazard assessment, different approaches and models are being tested, in order to produce flood maps for various return periods, and related to registered rainfalls

Reduction of Perceived Social Distance as an Explanation for Media's Influence on Personal Risk Perceptions: A Test of the Risk Convergence Model

Science.gov (United States)

So, Jiyeon; Nabi, Robin

2013-01-01

The risk convergence model proposes reduction of perceived social distance to a mediated personality as a mechanism through which the mass media can influence audiences' personal risk perceptions. As an initial test of the model, this study examined whether 5 audience variables known to facilitate media effects on personal risk…

REDUCTION OF THE RISK IN PUBLIC PROCUREMENT BY USING DESIGN-BUILD AS A MEANS FOR SUITABLE CONSTRUCTING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jakub Blaťák

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Suitable and sustainable buildings have increased demands for design and for the transfer of design requirements to realization. That causes an increase of risk connected with the differences between planned and real parameters of the buildings. This article will outline the main theme comparison between DBB and DB projects concerning contractor’s risk management level. This comparative analysis explains, using the RIPRAN method, the hidden risks in each type of delivery method. The comparison identifies numerous contractual topics and risks included in both and gives deeper insight into risk management, both for the contracting party and also for public procurement. Applying risk analysis strategies and tools to the process will help decision-makers evaluate and select the suitable delivery method consistently and defensibly. This paper gives generic risk factors related to both project types. The results indicate risk factors with influence on the price, probability of occurrence and unfavourable impact on the project and help allocate risk level more properly in accordance with its high, middle or low probable impact. Public investment is a significant part of the public budget, the application of design-build can help with the reduction of corruption, and the public sector can benefit from the usage of DB projects to help eliminate the mistakes made by contracting authorities.

Combining Primary Prevention and Risk Reduction Approaches in Sexual Assault Protection Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Menning, Chadwick; Holtzman, Mellisa

2015-01-01

Objective: The object of this study is to extend prior evaluations of Elemental, a sexual assault protection program that combines primary prevention and risk reduction strategies within a single program. Participants and Methods: During 2012 and 2013, program group and control group students completed pretest, posttest, and 6-week and 6-month…

The Effect of Risk Reduction Intervention on Earthquake Disaster Preparedness of the Elderly People

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kian Nourozi

2016-01-01

Conclusion: Preparedness programs for disaster risk reduction has a positive effect on the elders’ preparedness. Thus, similar multimodal preparedness programs should be used more frequently for this vulnerable community citizens.

Serious fighting-related injuries produce a significant reduction in intelligence.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Joseph A; Beaver, Kevin M

2013-10-01

Fighting-related injuries are common among adolescents within the United States, but how such injuries relate to subsequent cognitive functioning remains unclear. In particular, the long-term effect of fighting-related injuries suffered during important developmental periods, such as adolescence, on subsequent cognitive functioning has been overlooked by previous studies. The purpose of this study is to examine the association between sustaining serious fighting-related injuries and changes in verbal intelligence (IQ) over a 5- to 6-year time period. Longitudinal multivariate statistical models were used to analyze data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health collected between 1994 and 2002 and analyzed in 2013. Even a single fighting-related injury resulted in a significant reduction in IQ over time even after controlling for age, race, sex, and changes in socioeconomic status (SES) over the study period. Additionally, females experienced a significantly greater reduction in IQ from each fighting-related injury than males. Fighting-related injuries have a significant impact on subsequent cognitive functioning and intelligence. The implications for future policies and research are discussed in more detail. Copyright © 2013 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mediation Analysis of the Efficacy of the Eban HIV/STD Risk-Reduction Intervention for African American HIV Serodiscordant Couples.

Science.gov (United States)

El-Bassel, Nabila; Jemmott, John B; Bellamy, Scarlett L; Pequegnat, Willo; Wingood, Gina M; Wyatt, Gail E; Landis, J Richard; Remien, Robert H

2016-06-01

Targeting couples is a promising behavioral HIV risk-reduction strategy, but the mechanisms underlying the effects of such interventions are unknown. We report secondary analyses testing whether Social-Cognitive-Theory variables mediated the Eban HIV-risk-reduction intervention's effects on condom-use outcomes. In a multisite randomized controlled trial conducted in four US cities, 535 African American HIV-serodiscordant couples were randomized to the Eban HIV risk-reduction intervention or attention-matched control intervention. Outcomes were proportion condom-protected sex, consistent condom use, and frequency of unprotected sex measured pre-, immediately post-, and 6 and 12 months post-intervention. Potential mediators included Social-Cognitive-Theory variables: outcome expectancies and self-efficacy. Mediation analyses using the product-of-coefficients approach in a generalized-estimating-equations framework revealed that condom-use outcome expectancy, partner-reaction outcome expectancy, intention, self-efficacy, and safer-sex communication improved post-intervention and mediated intervention-induced improvements in condom-use outcomes. These findings underscore the importance of targeting outcome expectancies, self-efficacy, and safer-sex communication in couples-level HIV risk-reduction interventions.

NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, John

2009-01-01

To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft(reg s ign) Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool's design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John Collins

2009-09-01

To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

2017-01-01

trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

2017-01-01

People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

Chronic kidney disease risk reduction in a Hispanic population through pharmacist-based disease-state management.

Science.gov (United States)

Leal, Sandra; Soto, Marisa

2008-04-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ability of a pharmacist-based disease-state management service to improve the care of indigent, predominately Spanish-speaking patients with diabetes mellitus and common comorbid conditions at high risk for the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Patients at high risk for developing CKD who have diabetes at a community health center were placed in a pharmacist-based disease state management service for CKD risk reduction. A residency-trained, bilingual, certified diabetes educator, with a PharmD served as the patient's provider using diagnostic, educational, and therapeutic management services under a medical staff approved collaborative practice agreement. Outcomes were assessed by using national standards of care for disease control and prevention screening. The impact on CKD was shown with a mean A1C decrease of 2% and improvement in the proportion of patients at target goals for blood pressure, A1C, and cholesterol levels and receiving aspirin and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker. A pharmacist-based disease-state management service for CKD risk reduction, care of diabetes, and frequently associated comorbid conditions improved compliance with national standards for diabetes care in a high-risk population.

Meditation and Cardiovascular Risk Reduction: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

Science.gov (United States)

Levine, Glenn N; Lange, Richard A; Bairey-Merz, C Noel; Davidson, Richard J; Jamerson, Kenneth; Mehta, Puja K; Michos, Erin D; Norris, Keith; Ray, Indranill Basu; Saban, Karen L; Shah, Tina; Stein, Richard; Smith, Sidney C

2017-09-28

Despite numerous advances in the prevention and treatment of atherosclerosis, cardiovascular disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Novel and inexpensive interventions that can contribute to the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease are of interest. Numerous studies have reported on the benefits of meditation. Meditation instruction and practice is widely accessible and inexpensive and may thus be a potential attractive cost-effective adjunct to more traditional medical therapies. Accordingly, this American Heart Association scientific statement systematically reviewed the data on the potential benefits of meditation on cardiovascular risk. Neurophysiological and neuroanatomical studies demonstrate that meditation can have long-standing effects on the brain, which provide some biological plausibility for beneficial consequences on the physiological basal state and on cardiovascular risk. Studies of the effects of meditation on cardiovascular risk have included those investigating physiological response to stress, smoking cessation, blood pressure reduction, insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome, endothelial function, inducible myocardial ischemia, and primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Overall, studies of meditation suggest a possible benefit on cardiovascular risk, although the overall quality and, in some cases, quantity of study data are modest. Given the low costs and low risks of this intervention, meditation may be considered as an adjunct to guideline-directed cardiovascular risk reduction by those interested in this lifestyle modification, with the understanding that the benefits of such intervention remain to be better established. Further research on meditation and cardiovascular risk is warranted. Such studies, to the degree possible, should utilize randomized study design, be adequately powered to meet the primary study outcome, strive to achieve low drop-out rates, include long

Competing risk model for reduction in life expectancy from radiogenic latent cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, H.T.

1978-01-01

Because of the large number of persons who could potentially receive low doses of radiation as a result of a nuclear reactor accident, the number of fatalities from latent cancers is generally larger than the early, or prompt, fatalities. For this reason the latent cancer fatality risk of reactor accidents is perceived as being more important than the early fatality risk. In addition, there exists the temptation to add the latent cancer fatality risk to the early fatality risk for the purpose of comparing reactor accident risks to other risks that society is exposed to, such as automobile accidents, airplane accidents, hurricanes, etc. However, the impact on the individual, and society as a whole, due to latent cancer fatalities is significantly different from the impact produced by early fatalities. Early fatalities generally result in appreciable life shortening for the affected individual while latent cancer fatalities generally result in very limited life shortening. A mathematical model was developed to express the reduction in life expectancy due to latent radiogenic cancer as a function of dose received

Healthy co-twins of patients with affective disorders show reduced risk-related activation of the insula during a monetary gambling task

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Macoveanu, Julian; Miskowiak, Kamilla; Kessing, Lars V

2015-01-01

-risk individuals. METHODS: We investigated healthy monozygotic and dizygotic twins with or without a co-twin history of affective disorders (high-risk and low-risk groups, respectively) using functional MRI during a gambling task. We assessed group differences in activity related to gambling risk over the entire...... brain. RESULTS: We included 30 monozygotic and 37 dizygotic twins in our analysis. Neural activity in the anterior insula and ventral striatum increased linearly with the amount of gambling risk in the entire cohort. Individual neuroticism scores were positively correlated with the neural response...... in the ventral striatum to increasing gambling risk and negatively correlated with individual risk-taking behaviour. Compared with low-risk twins, the high-risk twins showed a bilateral reduction of risk-related activity in the middle insula extending into the temporal cortex with increasing gambling risk. Post...

Children with Disabilities in Disability-Inclusive Disaster Risk Reduction: Focussing on School Settings

Science.gov (United States)

Ronoh, Steve; Gaillard, J. C.; Marlowe, Jay

2017-01-01

Every year, worldwide, disasters affect approximately seven million children with disabilities, highlighting their potential vulnerability. Although there is a growing move internationally to promote the rights of children with disabilities, they still receive little attention from disaster risk reduction (DRR) researchers and policy makers. They…

Risk score modeling of multiple gene to gene interactions using aggregated-multifactor dimensionality reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dai Hongying

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR has been widely applied to detect gene-gene (GxG interactions associated with complex diseases. Existing MDR methods summarize disease risk by a dichotomous predisposing model (high-risk/low-risk from one optimal GxG interaction, which does not take the accumulated effects from multiple GxG interactions into account. Results We propose an Aggregated-Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (A-MDR method that exhaustively searches for and detects significant GxG interactions to generate an epistasis enriched gene network. An aggregated epistasis enriched risk score, which takes into account multiple GxG interactions simultaneously, replaces the dichotomous predisposing risk variable and provides higher resolution in the quantification of disease susceptibility. We evaluate this new A-MDR approach in a broad range of simulations. Also, we present the results of an application of the A-MDR method to a data set derived from Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis patients treated with methotrexate (MTX that revealed several GxG interactions in the folate pathway that were associated with treatment response. The epistasis enriched risk score that pooled information from 82 significant GxG interactions distinguished MTX responders from non-responders with 82% accuracy. Conclusions The proposed A-MDR is innovative in the MDR framework to investigate aggregated effects among GxG interactions. New measures (pOR, pRR and pChi are proposed to detect multiple GxG interactions.

Risk reduction of international mining projects by means of investor consortia and diversification of external financing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchner, C.

1982-01-01

Investors and creditors of international mining projects bear specific risks which may be reduced by means of forming investor and financing consortia. Risk is defined for each actor separately. Project risk and investor risk respectively credit risk are useful categories in order to analyze risk reduction. In each case formation of consortia has a positive influence on the economic viability of the project, and thus reduces the project risk. Furthermore, formation of consortia leads to better compliance of the host country of the mining project with the project and financing agreements. Thus, investor and credit risk may be reduced. (orig.) [de

Employment relations, flexibility and risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Carsten Strøby

Employment relations literature often distinguishes between social democratic/corporatist models of employment relations and liberal models of employment relations as they are seen as opposite or at least different ways of organizing labor markets. They are often characterized as having very...... different risk profiles in terms of relationships between employees, employers, and the state. Low levels of labor market regulation very often characterize the liberal models of employment relations as we know them from, for instance, the USA and the UK. This means that employment conditions are very often...... insecure and that the burden of unemployment risk mostly lies with the employees rather than the employer. Corporatist – or social democratic – employment relations models are, in contrast to the liberal models, often characterized by stricter regulation of the labor market and by high standards...

Comparing expressed and revealed preferences for risk reduction: different hazards and question frames

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDaniels, T.L.

1988-01-01

Studies often note the wide differences that exist in costs per death avoided across US federal programs and regulatory contexts. This paper explores two new, related explanations for these differences. First, it argues that the patterns of revealed preferences (public allocations) may be related to public values, which are measured here through subjects' expressed preference responses to a contingent valuation survey regarding risk reduction. Subjects' expressed values are compared to actual (and proposed) costs of safety regulations for a similar set of hazards. The authors discover strong congruence in the ranking of expressed values and actual values. Second, the paper presents the results of a subsequent survey that investigates why the patterns observed in the first survey might occur. It suggests that one reason for the observed similarities between revealed and expressed preferences may be in how choices are framed. The paper hypothesizes that both subjects and decision makers may frame valuation decisions in the same way: as percentage changes from the reference point provided by the base rate of deaths for that hazard

Use of GIS in the estimation and development of risk reduction technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ha, Jae Joo

1998-03-01

The occurrence probability of a severe accident in the nuclear power plant is very small because the safety of a plant and the public is considered in the design and operation of a nuclear power plant. However, if a severe accident occurs, the establishment of a reduction strategy of damages resulting from it is essential because the effect of it on the human and the environment is very large. The important criterion which determines the severity of an accident is risk, which is defined as the product of its frequently and the consequence. The establishment of countermeasures in order to estimate and reduce risks quantitatively can be a very powerful tool to minimize the effect of an accident on the human and the environment. The research on the establishment of a framework which integrates a geographic information system (GIS), a database management system (DBMS), and decision making support system (DMSS) is considered very actively. Based on these systems, we can accomplish the estimation and display of risks and the development of reduction methodologies which are essential parts of an accident management of a nuclear power plant. The GIS plays a role to support users to systematize and comprehend spatial relationships of information which are necessary for the decision making. Through the DBMS, we can establish and manage spatial and attribute data, and use them in the query and selection. The DMSS is a computer-based information system which makes a necessary decision easily. In this study, we reviewed the fundamental concepts of a GIS and examined the methodology for the use of it in the estimation and display of risks. Also, we established the fundamental GIS platform of a Yonggwang site and the necessary database systems for the estimation of risks. (author). 17 refs., 9 tabs., 34 figs

A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

2015-01-01

A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

A qualitative study of older and middle-aged adults' perception and attitudes towards dementia and dementia risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Sarang; Sargent-Cox, Kerry A; Anstey, Kaarin J

2015-07-01

To investigate perceptions of dementia and dementia risk reduction held by people without dementia. Dementia does not only affect individuals with dementia, but also has an impact on family and friends, society and healthcare professionals. Recent research has identified modifiable risk and protective factors for dementia. However, it is unclear what knowledge people without dementia have about these risk factors and their attitudes towards addressing these risk factors to achieve dementia risk reduction are not known. Qualitative descriptive study using focus group methodology. A focus group study was conducted in February 2011 with 34 older adults aged between 52-90 years. The long-table approach was used to identify themes and categorize data on dementia knowledge, risk and attitudes. Participants correctly identified dementia risk factors as a group. Participants' responses about their perceived likelihood of developing dementia could be classified into three distinctive themes; fear, rational and cynical perceptions. Both fear of developing dementia and the need to improve dementia knowledge were considered major motivators towards adopting healthier lifestyle and health behaviours. Lack of knowledge on risk factors for dementia was identified as a major barrier for behavioural and lifestyle change. These findings can be used to develop effective and personalized interventions that increase motivators and reduce barriers by tailoring interventions to individual's dementia risk reduction literacy and motivations to change behaviours. Greater public-health promotion and education about risk and protective factors for dementia are also necessary to increase dementia health literacy and to reduce overall dementia prevalence. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Biodiesel from Specified Risk Material Tallow: An Appraisal of TSE Risks and their Reduction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baribeau, A; Bradley, R; Brown, P; Goodwin, J; Kihm, U; Lotero, E; O' Connor, D; Schuppers, M; Taylor, D

2007-03-15

inactivate TSE infectivity, for example, exposure to strong acids or bases and, depending on the process, exposure to high temperature or purification by chromatography or precipitation. However, the two-phase aqueouslipidic nature of transesterification introduces an element of uncertainty about the effect of these procedures on infectivity. Biodiesel use. Combustion temperatures, even at millisecond exposures, might partially inactivate contaminated biodiesel. But experimental data have so far been limited to saline tissue suspensions of infected tissues and several minute exposure times in static rather than dynamic combustion processes. A substantial body of epidemiological and laboratory evidence indicates that TSE is not transmitted by aerosol inhalation. Overall conclusion. Biodiesel produced from animals infected with TSE poses a negligible risk to animal and public health. This conclusion extends even to the use of SRM as a source of tallow, based on experimental evidence showing that rendered tallow from infected animal tissues does not transmit disease to inoculated susceptible animals. Although infectivity reductions during biodiesel manufacturing steps should therefore be redundant, any such reduction would still be desirable as an added measure of safety. At present, the potential for infectivity reduction through biodiesel manufacturing and combustion can only be estimated from analogy to methods known to inactivate infectivity in saline suspensions of infected tissue. Studies of the actual biodiesel process, using experimentally contaminated input tallow, are recommended as the only means by which a scientifically-based conclusion can be made about the capacity of these processes to reduce or eliminate TSE infectivity.

Biodiesel from Specified Risk Material Tallow: An Appraisal of TSE Risks and their Reduction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baribeau, A.; Bradley, R.; Brown, P.; Goodwin, J.; Kihm, U.; Lotero, E.; O' Connor, D.; Schuppers, M.; Taylor, D.

2007-03-15

potential to inactivate TSE infectivity, for example, exposure to strong acids or bases and, depending on the process, exposure to high temperature or purification by chromatography or precipitation. However, the two-phase aqueouslipidic nature of transesterification introduces an element of uncertainty about the effect of these procedures on infectivity. Biodiesel use. Combustion temperatures, even at millisecond exposures, might partially inactivate contaminated biodiesel. But experimental data have so far been limited to saline tissue suspensions of infected tissues and several minute exposure times in static rather than dynamic combustion processes. A substantial body of epidemiological and laboratory evidence indicates that TSE is not transmitted by aerosol inhalation. Overall conclusion. Biodiesel produced from animals infected with TSE poses a negligible risk to animal and public health. This conclusion extends even to the use of SRM as a source of tallow, based on experimental evidence showing that rendered tallow from infected animal tissues does not transmit disease to inoculated susceptible animals. Although infectivity reductions during biodiesel manufacturing steps should therefore be redundant, any such reduction would still be desirable as an added measure of safety. At present, the potential for infectivity reduction through biodiesel manufacturing and combustion can only be estimated from analogy to methods known to inactivate infectivity in saline suspensions of infected tissue. Studies of the actual biodiesel process, using experimentally contaminated input tallow, are recommended as the only means by which a scientifically-based conclusion can be made about the capacity of these processes to reduce or eliminate TSE infectivity.

Case Study of Cardiovascular Risk Reduction in the Northwest Region and TRICARE Region 11

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Murphy, Rosemary

2003-01-01

... and TRICARE Lead Agent Region 11. The outcomes management team developed a cardiovascular risk reduction scorecard and metrics in which to evaluate the care being given to the TRICARE prime enrollees with a cardiovascular disease diagnosis...

Minority Households' Willingness-to-Pay for Public and Private Wildfire Risk Reduction in Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez-Caban, A.; Sanchez, J. J.

2017-12-01

The purpose of this work is to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) for minority (African-American and Hispanic) homeowners in Florida for private and public wildfire risk reduction programs and also to test for differences in response between the two groups. A random parameter logit and latent class models allowed us to determine if there is difference in wildfire mitigation program preferences, whether WTP is higher for public or private actions for wildfire risk reduction, and whether households with personal experience and who perceive that they live in higher-risk areas have significantly higher WTP. We also compare FL minority homeowners' WTP values with Florida original homeowners' estimates. Results suggest that FL minority homeowners are willing to invest in public programs, with African-Americans WTP values at a higher rate than Hispanics. In addition, the highest priority for cost sharing funds would go to low-income homeowners, especially to cost-share private actions on their own land. These results may help fire managers optimize allocation of scarce cost-sharing funds for public versus private actions.

Goals and activities of the JICA technical cooperation project on reduction of seismic risk in Romania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vacareanu, R.; Kato, H.

2007-01-01

Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Technical Cooperation Project on Reduction of Seismic Risk for Buildings and Structures started in Romania on October 1, 2002. The aim of the Project is to strengthen the capacity of earthquake disaster related activities in Romania. The Project approval is the result of four years of intensive efforts made by professionals from Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest (UTCB), Ministry of Transport, Constructions and Tourism (MTCT), Romania, National Building Research Institute (INCERC) Bucharest, JICA, Building Research Institute (BRI), Tsukuba, and National Institute for Land, Infrastructure and Management (NILIM), Tsukuba, Japan. The duration of the Project is five years. The implementing agency is the National Center for Seismic Risk Reduction (NCSRR) as a public institution of national interest under MTCT. The activities are carried out by NCSRR in partnership with UTCB and INCERC. During the Project period, 29 young Romanian engineers were trained in Japan, 7 Japanese experts and 37 Japanese experts worked for long-term and short-term, respectively in Romania. Equipment for seismic instrumentation, dynamic characterization of soil and structural testing rising up approximately to 260 million yens (i.e. 2.17 million USD) were donated by JICA to Romania, through NCSRR. The total cost of the Project is roughly 7 million USD. The paper describes the main activities and results of the Project until the JICA Final Evaluation Mission (March 2007). (authors)

Constructing post-carbon institutions: Assessing EU carbon reduction efforts through an institutional risk governance approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LaBelle, Michael

2012-01-01

This paper examines three different governance approaches the European Union (EU) and Member States (MS) are relying on to reach a low carbon economy by 2050. Current governance literature explains the operational methods of the EU's new governance approach to reduce carbon emissions. However, the literature neglects to account for the perceived risks that inhibit the roll-out of new low carbon technology. This article, through a novel approach, uses a grounded theoretical framework to reframe traditional risk literature and provides a connection to governance literature in order to assess the ability of EU governance mechanisms to reduce carbon emissions. The empirical research is based on responses from European energy stakeholders who participated in a Delphi method discussion and in semi-structured interviews; these identified three essential requirements for carbon emissions to be reduced to near zero by 2050: (1) an integrated European energy network, (2) carbon pricing and (3) demand reduction. These features correspond to institutionalized responses by the EU and MS: the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER); European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and energy efficiency directives and policies integrated into existing MS institutions. The theoretical and empirical findings suggest that governance by facilitation (energy efficiency) fails to induce significant investment and new policy approaches and cannot be relied on to achieve requisite reductions in demand. Governance by negotiation (ACER) and governance by hierarchy (EU ETS) do reduce risks and may encourage the necessary technological uptake. The term ‘risk governance’ is used to explain the important role governance plays in reducing risks and advancing new technology and thereby lowering carbon emissions in the energy sector. - Highlights: ► This article assesses the role of EU institutions in reducing carbon emissions by 2050. ► Empirical research is based on Delphi

Risk reductions for cardiovascular disease with pravastatin treatment by dyslipidemia phenotype: a post hoc analysis of the MEGA Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nishiwaki, Masato; Ikewaki, Katsunori; Ayaori, Makoto; Mizuno, Kyoichi; Ohashi, Yasuo; Ohsuzu, Fumitaka; Ishikawa, Toshitsugu; Nakamura, Haruo

2013-03-01

The beneficial effect of statins for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention has been well established. However, the effectiveness among different phenotypes of dyslipidemia has not been confirmed. We evaluated the effect of pravastatin on the incidence of CVD in relation to the phenotype of dyslipidemia. The MEGA Study evaluated the effect of low-dose pravastatin on primary prevention of CVD in 7832 Japanese patients, who were randomized to diet alone or diet plus pravastatin and followed for more than 5 years. These patients were classified into phenotype IIa (n=5589) and IIb (n=2041) based on the electrophoretic pattern for this post hoc analysis. In the diet group there was no significant difference in the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, CVD, and total mortality between the two phenotypes. Phenotype IIb patients, compared to phenotype IIa, had lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and a significantly higher incidence of CVD in relation to a low HDL-C level (dyslipidemia. Significant risk reductions were observed for CHD by 38% (p=0.04) and CVD by 31% (p=0.02) in type IIa dyslipidemia but not in phenotype IIb. Pravastatin therapy provided significant risk reductions for CHD and CVD in patients with phenotype IIa dyslipidemia, but not in those with phenotype IIb dyslipidemia. Copyright © 2012 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk analysis local grids. Mapping and reduction of risks in electric power grids; Riskanalysmetod lokalnaet. Kartlaeggning och reduktion av risker i elnaet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kylefors, Martin; Fredholm, Lotta; Sandstroem, Cecilia

2007-11-15

The objective of the project has been to contribute to development of risk analysis applications that correspond to the need of investments as an effect of new regulation. The aim has been to develop a method for screening and assessing risks, and for ranking risk reducing measures in order of priority. Phase 1 has consisted of an overview of methods, selection of appropriate methods, and development of principles regarding application suitable for power distribution companies. Phase 2 has consisted of adjustments and tests of the method. The method focuses on risks associated with power failures, with a duration exceeding 12 hours, in medium voltage local networks. Stations are excluded. The suggested method is based on principles of Preliminary Hazard Analysis and Cost-Benefit Analysis. Risks are suggested to be assessed based on three main factors (load, exposure and alternative supply). The quota between the highest and lowest value is 20 for each factor. Each factor is assessed by underlying factors such as type of cable/wire, number of customers and average power consumption. By multiplying the factors a resulting risk level is obtained in the range of 0.05 to 400. The level determines the need for further investments. Appropriate risk reducing measure is selected by putting the risk reduction (benefit) in relation to the total costs for investment and maintenance, for each alternative measure. There is a further need for development of a method for stations. There is also a further need for development of a priority model in city networks where power failures less than 12 hours are taken into account. Finally there is a need to turn the functional requirement (no power failures exceeding 24 hours) into an acceptable risk level

Testing for changes in spatial relative risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Hazelton, Martin L

2017-07-30

The spatial relative risk function is a useful tool for describing geographical variation in disease incidence. We consider the problem of comparing relative risk functions between two time periods, with the idea of detecting alterations in the spatial pattern of disease risk irrespective of whether there has been a change in the overall incidence rate. Using case-control datasets for each period, we use kernel smoothing methods to derive a test statistic based on the difference between the log-relative risk functions, which we term the log-relative risk ratio. For testing a null hypothesis of an unchanging spatial pattern of risk, we show how p-values can be computed using both randomization methods and an asymptotic normal approximation. The methodology is applied to data on campylobacteriosis from 2006 to 2013 in a region of New Zealand. We find clear evidence of a change in the spatial pattern of risk between those years, which can be explained in differences by response to a public health initiative between urban and rural communities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Centrality as a Method for the Evaluation of Semantic Resources for Disaster Risk Reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Otakar Čerba

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Clear and straightforward communication is a key aspect of all human activities related to crisis management. Since crisis management activities involve professionals from various disciplines using different terminology, clear and straightforward communication is difficult to achieve. Semantics as a broad science can help to overcome communication difficulties. This research focuses on the evaluation of available semantic resources including ontologies, thesauri, and controlled vocabularies for disaster risk reduction as part of crisis management. The main idea of the study is that the most appropriate source of broadly understandable terminology is such a semantic resource, which is accepted by—or at least connected to the majority of other resources. Important is not only the number of interconnected resources, but also the concrete position of the resource in the complex network of Linked Data resources. Although this is usually done by user experience, objective methods of resource semantic centrality can be applied. This can be described by centrality methods used mainly in graph theory. This article describes the calculation of four types of centrality methods (Outdegree, Indegree, Closeness, and Betweenness applied to 160 geographic concepts published as Linked Data and related to disaster risk reduction. Centralities were calculated for graph structures containing particular semantic resources as nodes and identity links as edges. The results show that (with some discussed exceptions the datasets with high values of centrality serve as important information resources, but they also include more concepts from preselected 160 geographic concepts. Therefore, they could be considered as the most suitable resources of terminology to make communication in the domain easier. The main research goal is to automate the semantic resources evaluation and to apply a well-known theoretical method (centrality to the semantic issues of Linked Data. It

Public risk-reduction measures: cost-effectiveness from a global point-of-view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira, L.F.S. de; Motta Barros, E.B. da; Fleming, P.V.; Rosa, L.P.

1985-05-01

A review of systemic or global approach to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures is presented, and its advantages and limitations are discussed. The method is applied for problem of the cost-effectiveness of increasing the Angra 3 reactor containment wall thickness from 60cm to 180cm thick, in case of a direct commercial aircraft crash on it. (Author) [pt

Task-based measures of image quality and their relation to radiation dose and patient risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barrett, Harrison H; Kupinski, Matthew A; Myers, Kyle J; Hoeschen, Christoph; Little, Mark P

2015-01-01

The theory of task-based assessment of image quality is reviewed in the context of imaging with ionizing radiation, and objective figures of merit (FOMs) for image quality are summarized. The variation of the FOMs with the task, the observer and especially with the mean number of photons recorded in the image is discussed. Then various standard methods for specifying radiation dose are reviewed and related to the mean number of photons in the image and hence to image quality. Current knowledge of the relation between local radiation dose and the risk of various adverse effects is summarized, and some graphical depictions of the tradeoffs between image quality and risk are introduced. Then various dose-reduction strategies are discussed in terms of their effect on task-based measures of image quality. (topical review)

Effects of Community Based Educational Prevention Program of Drug Abuse in Reduction of High Risk Behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H Aranpour

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Overcoming social problems requires a participatory approach. This study was performed in order to determine the effect of community based educational prevention program of drug abuse in reduction of high risk behavior. Methods: This study was a community based participatory research. According to planned approach to community health model, "the health companion group" was established with participation of public representatives of villages, researchers, and managers of health sectors. Need assessment and priority setting of health problems was done. Drug abuse was selected as the topmost priority of health problems. By interviewing 10 year olds and older members of households, the questionnaires were completed. By conducting workshops, distributing educational pamphlets and face to face training for six months, the educational program was carried out. After this period, the study population was interviewed again. Data was analyzed by SPSS software, X2, and T tests. Results: The mean score of drug abuse related high risk behavior was 26.8 +/- 2.05 before educational program and 25.2 ±2.3 after the program. The mean score of psychological health was 26.2±5.8 before educational program and 26.4±5.7 after the program. The rate of negative drug abusing related behavior decreased and positive behavior increased after the educational program. Conclusion: The community based participatory research with participation of the public can be a proper pattern to prevent drug abuse and related high risk behaviors and as a result reduce costs and complications of this problem.

Cost effectiveness of robotics and remote tooling for occupational risk reduction at a nuclear fuel fabrication facility

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lochard, Jacques

1989-08-01

This case study, related to the design stage of a fuel fabrication facility, presents the evaluation of alternative options to manipulate mixed oxide fuel rods in a quality control shop. It is based on a study performed in the framework of the 'MELOX project' developed by COGEMA in France. The methodology for evaluating robotic actions is resulting from a research work part funded by the IAEA under the co-ordinated research programme on 'Comparison of cost-effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems', and by the commission of the European Communities under the research and training programme on radiation protection.

Cost effectiveness of robotics and remote tooling for occupational risk reduction at a nuclear fuel fabrication facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lochard, Jacques

1989-01-01

This case study, related to the design stage of a fuel fabrication facility, presents the evaluation of alternative options to manipulate mixed oxide fuel rods in a quality control shop. It is based on a study performed in the framework of the 'MELOX project' developed by COGEMA in France. The methodology for evaluating robotic actions is resulting from a research work part funded by the IAEA under the co-ordinated research programme on 'Comparison of cost-effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems', and by the commission of the European Communities under the research and training programme on radiation protection

RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Robert S. Balch; Ron Broadhead

2005-03-01

Incomplete or sparse data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduce a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results when working with sparse data. State-of-the-art expert exploration tools, relying on a database, and computer maps generated by neural networks and user inputs, have been developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk has been reduced with the use of these properly verified and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tools.'' Through the course of this project, FEE Tools and supporting software were developed for two producing formations in southeast New Mexico. Tools of this type can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In today's oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lack the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, volatile oil prices, and scarcity of domestic exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The FEE Tools benefit a diverse group in the U.S., allowing a more efficient use of scarce funds, and potentially reducing dependence on foreign oil and providing lower product prices for consumers.

Reduction in albuminuria translates to reduction in cardiovascular events in hypertensive patients with left ventricular hypertrophy and diabetes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ibsen, H.; Olsen, M.H.; Wachtell, K.

2008-01-01

In type 2 diabetes the degree of albuminuria is strongly related to progression of diabetic renal disease, as well as to the risk for cardiovascular complications. If normoalbuminuria is maintained, the risk of diabetic nephropathy is very low. In individuals with microalbuminuria, the rate......, strongly predicted risk for cardiovascular complications. This indicates that when albuminuria is used as a risk predictor for cardiovascular events, so called normal values should be redefined. Traditional values for normo-micro-macroalbuminuria are primarily defined as predictors for the risk...... baseline values of albuminuria had the greatest benefit in terms of reduction in cardiovascular morbidity and mortality on losartan as compared with atenolol. The level of albuminuria during treatment was closely related to the risk for cardiovascular events. We conclude that tiny amounts of albuminuria...

Still "at risk": An examination of how street-involved young people understand, experience, and engage with "harm reduction" in Vancouver's inner city.

Science.gov (United States)

Bozinoff, Nikki; Small, Will; Long, Cathy; DeBeck, Kora; Fast, Danya

2017-07-01

Vancouver is an international leader in implementing interventions to reduce harms related to drug use. However, street-involved young people who use drugs continue to be vulnerable to overdose death, hepatitis C (HCV) infection, and high rates of syringe sharing. To better understand this in the context of the intensive public health response, we examined how young people, who are involved in the 'street drug scene', understood, experienced and engaged with harm reduction. Twelve semi-structured interviews were conducted in 2013 with 13 young people (ages 17-28) recruited from the At-Risk Youth Study, a prospective cohort of street-involved and drug-using young people. These interviews were embedded within a larger, eight-year program of ethnographic research and explored participants' understandings of harm reduction, their use of specific services, and their ideas about improving their day-to-day lives. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and a thematic analysis was performed. Young peoples' ideas about harm reduction were diverse and expansive. They articulated the limitations of existing programs, indicating that while they are positioned to reduce the risk of HIV and HCV transmission, they offer little meaningful support to improve young peoples' broader life chances. Young people described strategies to mitigate risk and harm in their own lives, including transitioning to drugs deemed less harmful and attempting to gain access to drug treatment. Finally, young people indicated that spatial considerations (e.g., distance from Vancouver's Downtown Eastside) strongly determined access to services. In Vancouver, a large, well established harm reduction infrastructure seeks to reduce HIV and HCV transmission among street-involved young people. However, young peoples' multiple understandings, experiences and engagements with harm reduction in this setting illustrate the limitations of the existing infrastructure in improving their broader life chances. Copyright

Patterns of NPS Use and Risk Reduction in Slovenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Sande, Matej; Paš, Mina; Nahtigal, Klara; Šabić, Simona

2018-01-15

The following study presents factors influencing the decision to use/not to use new psychoactive substances (NPS), various patterns of NPS use, the problems experienced by users, and the methods for reducing the risks associated with NPS use. The study seeks to provide an in-depth look into the characteristics of NPS use and support the planning of targeted interventions in the field of NPS. The study involved 19 in-depth interviews carried out with 25 individuals divided into three subsamples in order to gain insight into the various experiences of NPS users. The interviews were conducted in Slovenia between December 2013 and October 2014. The sample was obtained by using the convenience sampling and snowball sampling methods. The main pattern of NPS use determined by the study concerned synthetic cathinones, specifically 3-MMC, with binge use spanning several days being a prominent feature. The main risks involving NPS use were: mixing various drugs, inappropriate dosing, lack of information prior to use, and the use of unknown substances. Several users spoke about effective strategies for reducing risks, such as obtaining information beforehand, using one's own implements and using only small quantities of unknown substances. Conclusions/Importance: The study revealed various factors based on which users decide to use NPS. Furthermore, users reported a number of problems resulting from NPS use, while risk reduction strategies are employed to a much lesser extent. Based on the results obtained, specific intervention efforts concerning NPS use and targeting specific groups of younger users were designed.

Prevalence of malaria and use of malaria risk reduction measures among resettled pregnant women in South Sudan

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dræbel, Tania; Gueth Kueil, Bill; Meyrowitsch, Dan Wolf

2013-01-01

Background: The study assessed aspects of malaria infection, prevention and treatment in a population of resettled pregnant women in South Sudan. Methods: During April and May 2008, a cross-sectional study was carried out to estimate malaria prevalence and to assess the use of malaria risk...... ¼ 3.20, 95% CI 1.26–8.16; p ¼ 0.015). Conclusions: The results suggest that educational attainment need not be very advanced to affect practices of malaria prevention and treatment. Primary school attendance was a stronger predictor for use of malaria risk reduction measures than any of the other...... selected background characteristics. Educational attainment, information and communication about malaria prevention and control play a pivotal role in increasing and improving use of malaria risk reduction measures....

Pronurturance Plus at birth: A risk reduction strategy for preventing postpartum haemorrhage.

Science.gov (United States)

Saxton, A; Fahy, K; Hastie, C

2016-06-01

Postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) rates continue to rise in the developed world. A recent study found that any skin-to-skin contact and breastfeeding within 30min of birth was associated with an almost 50% reduction in PPH rates. Improved oxytocin release is the biological reason proposed to explain this. The combination of skin-to-skin contact and breastfeeding within 30min of birth is termed 'Pronurturance'. Midwifery theory and research claims that optimal third stage care is more holistic than simple Pronurturnace which suggests that further reductions in PPH rates may be possible. What can midwives and women do to minimise blood loss in the third and fourth stages of labour? We present a new theory that describes and explains how to optimise the woman's reproductive psychophysiology in the third and fourth stages of labour to ensure a well contracted uterus which inhibits excessive bleeding regardless of risk status or whether active management was used. In developing the Pronurturance Plus theory we expand upon what is already known about oxytocin in relation to simple pronurturance to integrate concepts from birth territory theory, cognitive neuroscience, mindfulness psychology and the autonomic nervous system to develop an holistic understanding of how to optimise care and minimise PPH. Pronurturance Plus is a psycho-biologically grounded theory which is consistent with existing evidence. It is free, natural and socially desirable. Copyright © 2015 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A yoga intervention for type 2 diabetes risk reduction: a pilot randomized controlled trial

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Type 2 diabetes is a major health problem in many countries including India. Yoga may be an effective type 2 diabetes prevention strategy in India, particularly given its cultural familiarity. Methods This was a parallel, randomized controlled pilot study to collect feasibility and preliminary efficacy data on yoga for diabetes risk factors among people at high risk of diabetes. Primary outcomes included: changes in BMI, waist circumference, fasting blood glucose, postprandial blood glucose, insulin, insulin resistance, blood pressure, and cholesterol. We also looked at measures of psychological well-being including changes in depression, anxiety, positive and negative affect and perceived stress. Forty-one participants with elevated fasting blood glucose in Bangalore, India were randomized to either yoga (n = 21) or a walking control (n = 20). Participants were asked to either attend yoga classes or complete monitored walking 3–6 days per week for eight weeks. Randomization and allocation was performed using computer-generated random numbers and group assignments delivered in sealed, opaque envelopes generated by off-site study staff. Data were analyzed based on intention to treat. Results This study was feasible in terms of recruitment, retention and adherence. In addition, yoga participants had significantly greater reductions in weight, waist circumference and BMI versus control (weight −0.8 ± 2.1 vs. 1.4 ± 3.6, p = 0.02; waist circumference −4.2 ± 4.8 vs. 0.7 ± 4.2, p yoga intervention and walking control over the course of the study. Conclusion Among Indians with elevated fasting blood glucose, we found that participation in an 8-week yoga intervention was feasible and resulted in greater weight loss and reduction in waist circumference when compared to a walking control. Yoga offers a promising lifestyle intervention for decreasing weight-related type 2 diabetes risk factors and potentially increasing

Does mitigation save? Reviewing cost-benefit analyses of disaster risk reduction

OpenAIRE

Shreve, Cheney M.; Kelman, Ilan

2014-01-01

The benefit-cost-ratio (BCR), used in cost-benefit analysis (CBA), is an indicator that attempts to summarize the overall value for money of a project. Disaster costs continue to rise and the demand has increased to demonstrate the economic benefit of disaster risk reduction (DRR) to policy makers. This study compiles and compares original CBA case studies reporting DRR BCRs, without restrictions as to hazard type, location, scale, or other parameters. Many results were identified supporting ...

Mediation of an efficacious HIV risk reduction intervention for South African men.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Leary, Ann; Jemmott, John B; Jemmott, Loretta S; Bellamy, Scarlett; Icard, Larry D; Ngwane, Zolani

2015-10-01

"Men, Together Making a Difference!" is an HIV/STD risk-reduction intervention that significantly increased self-reported consistent condom use during vaginal intercourse compared with a health-promotion attention-control intervention among men (N = 1181) in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. The present analyses were designed to identify mediators of the intervention's efficacy. The potential mediators were Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) constructs that the intervention targeted, including several aspects of condom-use self-efficacy, outcome expectancies, and knowledge. Mediation was assessed using a product-of-coefficients approach where an α path (the intervention's effect on the potential mediator) and a β path (the potential mediator's effect on the outcome of interest, adjusting for intervention) were estimated independently in a generalized estimating equations framework. Condom-use negotiation self-efficacy, technical-skill self-efficacy, and impulse-control self-efficacy were significant mediators. Although not mediators, descriptive norm and expected friends' approval of condom use predicted subsequent self-reported condom use, whereas the expected approval of sexual partner did not. The present results suggest that HIV/STD risk-reduction interventions that draw upon SCT and that address self-efficacy to negotiate condom use, to apply condoms correctly, and to exercise sufficient control when sexually aroused to use condoms may contribute to efforts to reduce sexual risk behavior among South African men. Future research must examine whether approaches that build normative support for condom use among men's friends are also efficacious.

Risk and culture: variations in dioxin risk perceptions, behavioral preferences among social groups in South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seohyun Park

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Objectives This study examined variations in the perceptions of dioxin risk among social groups defined by geographical living location, environmental education, and occupation. Dioxin risk perceptions were analyzed according to values, risk awareness, knowledge, and behavioral preferences. Methods A quasi-experimental survey was designed and conducted on individuals from seven experimental groups in Jeonju city, South Korea, including: people living near incineration facilities; people living far from incineration facilities; governmental experts; nongovernmental organization members; office workers in developmental institutes or banks; students who were enrolled in environmental-related classes; and students who were enrolled in business-related classes. Results The results show variations among groups in values, awareness and behavioral preferences. Particular attention should be given to the result that groups with higher connectedness- to-nature values show higher willingness-to-act (WTA for risk reduction. Result s can be summarized as follows. First, awareness is associated with one’s geographical setting. Second, values and WTA behaviors are related to one’s environmental-related education and occupation. Third, values are significantly related to WTA behaviors. Conclusions Different cultures, in terms of values or worldview, among groups influence their perceptions of dioxin risk and choices of risk reduction behaviors. It is important to consider values in communicating complicated long-term risk management involving public participation. Further research should be continuously conducted on the effects of multiple dimensions of values on one’s WTA for risk reduction behaviors.

Update on Risk Reduction Activities for a Liquid Advanced Booster for NASA's Space Launch System

Science.gov (United States)

Crocker, Andrew M.; Greene, William D.

2017-01-01

The stated goals of NASA's Research Announcement for the Space Launch System (SLS) Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) are to reduce risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the evolved capabilities of SLS and enable competition by mitigating targeted Advanced Booster risks to enhance SLS affordability. Dynetics, Inc. and Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) formed a team to offer a wide-ranging set of risk reduction activities and full-scale, system-level demonstrations that support NASA's ABEDRR goals. During the ABEDRR effort, the Dynetics Team has modified flight-proven Apollo-Saturn F-1 engine components and subsystems to improve affordability and reliability (e.g., reduce parts counts, touch labor, or use lower cost manufacturing processes and materials). The team has built hardware to validate production costs and completed tests to demonstrate it can meet performance requirements. State-of-the-art manufacturing and processing techniques have been applied to the heritage F-1, resulting in a low recurring cost engine while retaining the benefits of Apollo-era experience. NASA test facilities have been used to perform low-cost risk-reduction engine testing. In early 2014, NASA and the Dynetics Team agreed to move additional large liquid oxygen/kerosene engine work under Dynetics' ABEDRR contract. Also led by AR, the objectives of this work are to demonstrate combustion stability and measure performance of a 500,000 lbf class Oxidizer-Rich Staged Combustion (ORSC) cycle main injector. A trade study was completed to investigate the feasibility, cost effectiveness, and technical maturity of a domestically-produced engine that could potentially both replace the RD-180 on Atlas V and satisfy NASA SLS payload-to-orbit requirements via an advanced booster application. Engine physical dimensions and performance parameters resulting from this study provide the system level requirements for the ORSC risk reduction test article

Sexual risk-reduction strategies among HIV-infected men receiving ART in Kibera, Nairobi.

Science.gov (United States)

Ragnarsson, Anders; Thorson, Anna; Dover, Paul; Carter, Jane; Ilako, Festus; Indalo, Dorcas; Ekstrom, Anna Mia

2011-03-01

This paper explores motivational factors and barriers to sexual behaviour change among men receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART). Twenty in-depth interviews were undertaken with male patients enrolled at the African Medical and Research Foundation clinic in Africa's largest urban informal settlement, Kibera in Nairobi, Kenya. All participants experienced prolonged and severe illness prior to the initiation of ART. Fear of symptom relapse was the main trigger for sexual behaviour change. Partner reduction was reported as a first option for behaviour change since this decision could be made by the individual. Condom use was perceived as more difficult as it had to be negotiated with female partners. Cultural norms regarding expectations for reproduction and marriage were not supportive of sexual risk-reduction strategies. Thus, local sociocultural contexts of HIV-infected people must be incorporated into the contextual adaptation and design of ART programmes and services as they have an over-riding influence on sexual behaviour and programme effectiveness. Also, HIV-prevention interventions need to address both personal, micro- and macro-level factors of behaviour to encourage individuals to take on sexual risk-reduction strategies. In order to achieve the anticipated preventive effect of ART, these issues are important for the donor community and policy-makers, who are the major providers of ART programme support within weak health systems in sub-Saharan Africa.

Combining Co-Benefits and Stakeholders Perceptions into Green Infrastructure Selection for Flood Risk Reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alida Alves

2018-02-01

Full Text Available An important increase in flood risk levels is expected in future decades in many areas around the globe. In addition, the traditional approaches for flood management offer options with low sustainability. As a response, the use of non-traditional drainage measures, also called green infrastructures, has been increasingly suggested in the last years. One important reason for their increasing popularity has been the co-benefits that they offer to the environment. The development of an efficient planning for sustainable urban drainage systems is a complex process that needs the involvement of multiple stakeholders. Moreover, the measures to be adopted should be evaluated considering their potential to achieve multiple benefits related to human well-being, rather than just to flood risk management. In this work, we propose a framework for the selection of green infrastructures on the basis of a co-benefits analysis. The aim is to include the achievement of co-benefits and human well-being into decision-making for flood management, considering the stakeholders’ perceptions to define the most important benefits to be enhanced. The application of the framework presented here to a case study in Ayutthaya, Thailand, shows the importance of including different stakeholder’s opinions. In addition, it shows that decision makers should consider locally defined co-benefits as well as flood risk reduction when defining which green infrastructures to apply.

Justice policy reform for high-risk juveniles: using science to achieve large-scale crime reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Skeem, Jennifer L; Scott, Elizabeth; Mulvey, Edward P

2014-01-01

After a distinctly punitive era, a period of remarkable reform in juvenile crime regulation has begun. Practical urgency has fueled interest in both crime reduction and research on the prediction and malleability of criminal behavior. In this rapidly changing context, high-risk juveniles--the small proportion of the population where crime becomes concentrated--present a conundrum. Research indicates that these are precisely the individuals to treat intensively to maximize crime reduction, but there are both real and imagined barriers to doing so. Mitigation principles (during early adolescence, ages 10-13) and institutional placement or criminal court processing (during mid-late adolescence, ages 14-18) can prevent these juveniles from receiving interventions that would best protect public safety. In this review, we synthesize relevant research to help resolve this challenge in a manner that is consistent with the law's core principles. In our view, early adolescence offers unique opportunities for risk reduction that could (with modifications) be realized in the juvenile justice system in cooperation with other social institutions.

Update on Risk Reduction Activities for a Liquid Advanced Booster for NASA's Space Launch System

Science.gov (United States)

Crocker, Andrew M.; Doering, Kimberly B; Meadows, Robert G.; Lariviere, Brian W.; Graham, Jerry B.

2015-01-01

The stated goals of NASA's Research Announcement for the Space Launch System (SLS) Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) are to reduce risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the evolved capabilities of SLS; and enable competition by mitigating targeted Advanced Booster risks to enhance SLS affordability. Dynetics, Inc. and Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) formed a team to offer a wide-ranging set of risk reduction activities and full-scale, system-level demonstrations that support NASA's ABEDRR goals. For NASA's SLS ABEDRR procurement, Dynetics and AR formed a team to offer a series of full-scale risk mitigation hardware demonstrations for an affordable booster approach that meets the evolved capabilities of the SLS. To establish a basis for the risk reduction activities, the Dynetics Team developed a booster design that takes advantage of the flight-proven Apollo-Saturn F-1. Using NASA's vehicle assumptions for the SLS Block 2, a two-engine, F-1-based booster design delivers 150 mT (331 klbm) payload to LEO, 20 mT (44 klbm) above NASA's requirements. This enables a low-cost, robust approach to structural design. During the ABEDRR effort, the Dynetics Team has modified proven Apollo-Saturn components and subsystems to improve affordability and reliability (e.g., reduce parts counts, touch labor, or use lower cost manufacturing processes and materials). The team has built hardware to validate production costs and completed tests to demonstrate it can meet performance requirements. State-of-the-art manufacturing and processing techniques have been applied to the heritage F-1, resulting in a low recurring cost engine while retaining the benefits of Apollo-era experience. NASA test facilities have been used to perform low-cost risk-reduction engine testing. In early 2014, NASA and the Dynetics Team agreed to move additional large liquid oxygen/kerosene engine work under Dynetics' ABEDRR contract. Also led by AR, the

Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk" | Durrheim | South African ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

South African Family Practice. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 45, No 8 (2003) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk". DN Durrheim ...

Relative Risk Appraisal, the September 11 Attacks, and Terrorism-Related Fears

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Randall D.; Bryant, Richard A.; Amsel, Lawrence; Suh, Eun Jung; Cook, Joan M.; Neria, Yuval

2013-01-01

There are now replicated findings that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms related to the September 11, 2001, attacks occurred in large numbers of persons who did not fit the traditional definition of exposure to a traumatic event. These data are not explained by traditional epidemiologic “bull’s eye” disaster models, which assume the psychological effects are narrowly, geographically circumscribed, or by existing models of PTSD onset. In this article, the authors develop a researchable model to explain these and other terrorism-related phenomena by synthesizing research and concepts from the cognitive science, risk appraisal, traumatic stress, and anxiety disorders literatures. They propose the new term relative risk appraisal to capture the psychological function that is the missing link between the event and subjective response in these and other terrorism-related studies to date. Relative risk appraisal highlights the core notion from cognitive science that human perception is an active, multidimensional process, such that for unpredictable societal threats, proximity to the event is only one of several factors that influence behavioral responses. Addressing distortions in relative risk appraisal effectively could reduce individual and societal vulnerability to a wide range of adverse economic and ethnopolitical consequences to terrorist attacks. The authors present ways in which these concepts and related techniques can be helpful in treating persons with September 11– or terrorism-related distress or psychopathology. PMID:17516775

Age-related variance in decisions under ambiguity is explained by changes in reasoning, executive functions, and decision-making under risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Schiebener, Johannes; Brand, Matthias

2017-06-01

Previous literature has explained older individuals' disadvantageous decision-making under ambiguity in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) by reduced emotional warning signals preceding decisions. We argue that age-related reductions in IGT performance may also be explained by reductions in certain cognitive abilities (reasoning, executive functions). In 210 participants (18-86 years), we found that the age-related variance on IGT performance occurred only in the last 60 trials. The effect was mediated by cognitive abilities and their relation with decision-making performance under risk with explicit rules (Game of Dice Task). Thus, reductions in cognitive functions in older age may be associated with both a reduced ability to gain explicit insight into the rules of the ambiguous decision situation and with failure to choose the less risky options consequently after the rules have been understood explicitly. Previous literature may have underestimated the relevance of cognitive functions for age-related decline in decision-making performance under ambiguity.

Acceptability of mobile health interventions to reduce inactivity-related health risk in central Pennsylvania adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chih-Hsiang Yang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Insufficient physical activity and excessive sedentary behavior elevate health risk. Mobile applications (apps provide one mode for delivering interventions to modify these behaviors and reduce health risk. The purpose of this study was to characterize the need for and acceptability of health behavior interventions among rural adults and evaluate the interest in and the value of app-based interventions in this population. Central Pennsylvania adults with smartphones (N = 258 completed a brief web survey in October–November 2012. Most adults report one or both inactivity-related behavioral risk factors, would use a free app to modify those risk behaviors, and would pay a small amount for that app. Low-cost, efficacious apps to increase physical activity or reduce sedentary behavior should be promoted in public health practice. User experience should be at the forefront of this process to increase value and minimize burden in the service of long-term engagement, behavior change, and health risk reduction.

Science and Technology Networks : A Helping Hand to Boost Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Trogrlić, RobertŠakić; Cumiskey, Lydia; Triyanti, Annisa; Duncan, Melanie J.; Eltinay, Nuha; Hogeboom, Rick J.; Jasuja, Mansi; Meechaiya, Chinaporn; Pickering, Christina J.; Murray, Virginia

2017-01-01

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 underlines the importance of Science and Technology (S&T) and S&T networks for effective disaster risk reduction (DRR). The knowledge of existing S&T networks and their exact role in DRR, however, is limited. This opinion piece initiates a

Association of Proton Pump Inhibitors with Reduced Risk of Warfarin-related Serious Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Science.gov (United States)

Ray, Wayne A.; Chung, Cecilia P.; Murray, Katherine T.; Smalley, Walter E.; Daugherty, James R.; Dupont, William D.; Stein, C. Michael

2016-01-01

Background & Aims Proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) might reduce the risk of serious warfarin-related upper gastrointestinal bleeding, but the evidence of their efficacy for this indication is limited. A gastroprotective effect of PPIs would be particularly important for patients who take warfarin with antiplatelet drugs or nonselective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), which further increase the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding. Methods This retrospective cohort study of patients beginning warfarin treatment in Tennessee Medicaid and the 5% National Medicare Sample identified 97,430 new episodes of warfarin treatment with 75,720 person-years of follow up. The study endpoints were hospitalizations for upper gastrointestinal bleeding potentially preventable by PPIs and for bleeding at other sites. Results Patients who took warfarin without PPI co-therapy had 119 hospitalizations for upper gastrointestinal bleeding per 10,000 person-years of treatment. The risk decreased by 24% among patients who received PPI co-therapy (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63–0.91). There was no significant reduction in the risk of other gastrointestinal bleeding hospitalizations (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.94–1.22) or non-gastrointestinal bleeding hospitalizations (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.84–1.15) in this group. Among patients concurrently using antiplatelet drugs or NSAIDs, those without PPI co-therapy had 284 upper gastrointestinal bleeding hospitalizations per 10,000 person-years of warfarin treatment. The risk decreased by 45% (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.39–0.77) with PPI co-therapy. PPI co-therapy had no significant protective effect for warfarin patients not using antiplatelet drugs or NSAIDs (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.70-1.06). Findings were similar in both study populations. Conclusions In an analysis of patients beginning warfarin treatment in Tennessee Medicaid and the 5% National Medicare Sample, PPI co-therapy was associated with reduced risk of warfarin-related upper

Public relations in risk communication: risk pr. The importance of public relations for risk communication; Public Relations in der Risikokommunikation: Risiko-PR. Die Bedeutung von Public Relations fuer die Risikokommunikation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lehmann, K.

2001-07-01

Risks have become a central problem of our time, as is reflected in concepts like 'society at risk' and 'anti-technological attitude', in group protest against risks and against those who cause them, and last but not least in the critical attitude of the media. Against this background, organisations must needs enter the public discussion and be able to communicate professionally and convincingly in order to ensure their own success and further existence. The book describes the basic problems of risk research and risk communications and discusses inhowfar, and how, public relations strategies and instruments can help here. [German] Risiken werden verstaerkt zum Problem unserer Zeit. Das belegen nicht nur Begriffe wie 'Risikogesellschaft' und 'Technikfeindlichkeit', die in letzter Zeit an Bedeutung gewonnen haben, sondern auch und vor allem nachhaltige Proteste von engagierten Gruppierungen gegen Risiken und deren Verursacher oder auch die kritische Berichterstattung der Medien. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist es fuer Organisationen erforderlich, in die oeffentliche Auseinandersetzung um Risiken einzusteigen und hier professionell und ueberzeugend zu kommunizieren, um den Organisationserfolg und Organisationsbestand zu sichern. Die vorliegende Arbeit beschreibt die Grundprobleme der Risikoforschung und Risikokommunikation und diskutiert, ob und inwieweit Public Relations bei der Loesung dieser Probleme helfen koennen, da insbesondere Public Relations gezielt Strategien und Instrumente nutzen, um beispielsweise den Wissensstand der Oeffentlichkeit zu verbessern und den Dialog mit relevanten Teiloeffentlichkeiten zu foerdern. (orig.)

Risks related to the introduction of exotic diseases: a European view.

Science.gov (United States)

Janssen, J; Marchant, B

1995-12-01

The European Union (EU) has historically been free of a number of epidemic diseases of livestock and is approaching eradication of several others. This situation is put at risk by the importation of live animals and animal products. Animal products include products which are broadly described as veterinary biologicals. For the purposes of assessing and controlling risks, these fall into two groups: crude products (e.g. serum and other blood products) and medicinal products (e.g. vaccines and other immunological products). This second group is covered by another paper in this issue of the Review. Risk reduction methods may be applied to crude veterinary biologicals pre- or post-importation. Pre-importation methods include product treatment, or ensuring that the source of the product is "risk-free'. Post-importation risk reduction involves product testing, or treatment achieved by channelling products to commercial operations which are covered by European medicines legislation. At present, EU Member States issue health certificates individually for crude veterinary biologicals, and conditions for entry may differ between States. This process will soon be harmonised (the provisions for marketing medicinal products have already been harmonised).

How do women at increased breast cancer risk perceive and decide between risks of cancer and risk-reducing treatments? A synthesis of qualitative research.

Science.gov (United States)

Fielden, Hannah G; Brown, Stephen L; Saini, Pooja; Beesley, Helen; Salmon, Peter

2017-09-01

Risk-reducing procedures can be offered to people at increased cancer risk, but many procedures can have iatrogenic effects. People therefore need to weigh risks associated with both cancer and the risk-reduction procedure in their decisions. By reviewing relevant literature on breast cancer (BC) risk reduction, we aimed to understand how women at relatively high risk of BC perceive their risk and how their risk perceptions influence their decisions about risk reduction. Synthesis of 15 qualitative studies obtained from systematic searches of SCOPUS, Web of Knowledge, PsychINFO, and Medline electronic databases (inception-June 2015). Women did not think about risk probabilistically. Instead, they allocated themselves to broad risk categories, typically influenced by their own or familial experiences of BC. In deciding about risk-reduction procedures, some women reported weighing the risks and benefits, but papers did not describe how they did so. For many women, however, an overriding wish to reduce intense worry about BC led them to choose aggressive risk-reducing procedures without such deliberation. Reasoning that categorisation is a fundamental aspect of risk perception, we argue that patients can be encouraged to develop more nuanced and accurate categorisations of their own risk through their interactions with clinicians. Empirically-based ethical reflection is required to determine whether and when it is appropriate to provide risk-reduction procedures to alleviate worry. © 2016 The Authors. Psycho-Oncology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On the Issue of Labor Relations Discontinuance by Staff Reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sheveleva A. A.

2012-11-01

Full Text Available This article is devoted to consideration of issues related to the procedure of labor law contract termination by staff reduction. The author, analyzing the judicial practice, gives practical recommendations on the procedure of employment relationships discontinuance

Disaster Risks Reduction for Extreme Natural Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Plag, H.; Jules-Plag, S.

2013-12-01

Mega disasters associated with extreme natural hazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Floods and droughts are major threats that potentially could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis frequently cause disasters that eventually could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly since we have built mega cities in hazardous areas that are now ready to be harvested by natural hazards. Unfortunately, the more we learn to cope with the relatively frequent hazards (50 to 100 years events), the less we are worried about the low-probability, high-impact events (a few hundred and more years events). As a consequence, threats from the 500 years flood, drought, volcano eruption are not appropriately accounted for in disaster risk reduction (DRR) discussions. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because exposure of human assets to hazards was much lower in the past. The most extreme events that occurred during the last 2,000 years would today cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. Recent extreme earthquakes have illustrated the destruction they can inflict, both directly and indirectly through tsunamis. Large volcano eruptions have the potential to impact climate, anthropogenic infrastructure and resource supplies on global scale. During the last 2,000 years several large volcano eruptions occurred, which under today's conditions are associated with extreme disaster risk. The comparison of earthquakes and volcano eruptions indicates that large volcano eruptions are the low-probability geohazards with potentially the highest impact on our civilization

The cardiovascular event reduction tool (CERT)--a simplified cardiac risk prediction model developed from the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS).

Science.gov (United States)

L'Italien, G; Ford, I; Norrie, J; LaPuerta, P; Ehreth, J; Jackson, J; Shepherd, J

2000-03-15

The clinical decision to treat hypercholesterolemia is premised on an awareness of patient risk, and cardiac risk prediction models offer a practical means of determining such risk. However, these models are based on observational cohorts where estimates of the treatment benefit are largely inferred. The West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS) provides an opportunity to develop a risk-benefit prediction model from the actual observed primary event reduction seen in the trial. Five-year Cox model risk estimates were derived from all WOSCOPS subjects (n = 6,595 men, aged 45 to 64 years old at baseline) using factors previously shown to be predictive of definite fatal coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Model risk factors included age, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol/ high-density lipoprotein ratio (TC/HDL), current smoking, diabetes, family history of fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina, and treatment (placebo/ 40-mg pravastatin). All risk factors were expressed as categorical variables to facilitate risk assessment. Risk estimates were incorporated into a simple, hand-held slide rule or risk tool. Risk estimates were identified for 5-year age bands (45 to 65 years), 4 categories of TC/HDL ratio ( or = 7.5), 2 levels of diastolic blood pressure ( or = 90 mm Hg), from 0 to 3 additional risk factors (current smoking, diabetes, family history of premature fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina), and pravastatin treatment. Five-year risk estimates ranged from 2% in very low-risk subjects to 61% in the very high-risk subjects. Risk reduction due to pravastatin treatment averaged 31%. Thus, the Cardiovascular Event Reduction Tool (CERT) is a risk prediction model derived from the WOSCOPS trial. Its use will help physicians identify patients who will benefit from cholesterol reduction.

Application of Probabilistic Modeling to Quantify the Reduction Levels of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Attributable to Chronic Aflatoxins Exposure.

Science.gov (United States)

Wambui, Joseph M; Karuri, Edward G; Ojiambo, Julia A; Njage, Patrick M K

2017-01-01

Epidemiological studies show a definite connection between areas of high aflatoxin content and a high occurrence of human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hepatitis B virus in individuals further increases the risk of HCC. The two risk factors are prevalent in rural Kenya and continuously predispose the rural populations to HCC. A quantitative cancer risk assessment therefore quantified the levels at which potential pre- and postharvest interventions reduce the HCC risk attributable to consumption of contaminated maize and groundnuts. The assessment applied a probabilistic model to derive probability distributions of HCC cases and percentage reductions levels of the risk from secondary data. Contaminated maize and groundnuts contributed to 1,847 ± 514 and 158 ± 52 HCC cases per annum, respectively. The total contribution of both foods to the risk was additive as it resulted in 2,000 ± 518 cases per annum. Consumption and contamination levels contributed significantly to the risk whereby lower age groups were most affected. Nonetheless, pre- and postharvest interventions might reduce the risk by 23.0-83.4% and 4.8-95.1%, respectively. Therefore, chronic exposure to aflatoxins increases the HCC risk in rural Kenya, but a significant reduction of the risk can be achieved by applying specific pre- and postharvest interventions.

Risk reduction: perioperative smoking intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Ann; Tønnesen, Hanne

2006-01-01

Smoking is a well-known risk factor for perioperative complications. Smokers experience an increased incidence of respiratory complications during anaesthesia and an increased risk of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications, infections and impaired wound healing. Smokers have a greater risk...... of postoperative intensive care admission. Even passive smoking is associated with increased risk at operation. Preoperative smoking intervention 6-8 weeks before surgery can reduce the complications risk significantly. Four weeks of abstinence from smoking seems to improve wound healing. An intensive, individual...... approach to smoking intervention results in a significantly better postoperative outcome. Future research should focus upon the effect of a shorter period of preoperative smoking cessation. All smokers admitted for surgery should be informed of the increased risk, recommended preoperative smoking cessation...

Designing a Physical Security System for Risk Reduction in a Hypothetical Nuclear Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saleh, A.A.; Abd Elaziz, M.

2017-01-01

Physical security in a nuclear facility means detection, prevention and response to threat, the ft, sabotage, unauthorized access and illegal transfer involving radioactive and nuclear material. This paper proposes a physical security system designing concepts to reduce the risk associated with variant threats to a nuclear facility. This paper presents a study of the unauthorized removal and sabotage in a hypothetical nuclear facility considering deter, delay and response layers. More over, the study involves performing any required upgrading to the security system by investigating the nuclear facility layout and considering all physical security layers design to enhance the weakness for risk reduction

Explanatory risk factors in the relations between schizotypy and indicators of suicide risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Jahn, Danielle R; DeVylder, Jordan E; Hilimire, Matthew R

2016-04-30

Schizotypy has been linked to suicide risk, but it is not known whether established suicide-related risk factors mediate this relation. The aim of this study was to assess the mediating effects of depressive symptoms, social anxiety, self-esteem, and intimate disclosure in peer relationships in the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. This aim was tested in 590 young adults using a nonparametric bootstrapping procedure. After inclusion of the mediators, interpersonal schizotypy was no longer directly associated with either suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. Depression and self-esteem mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation. No variables mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and lifetime suicide attempts, and there were no significant direct relations when mediators were included. Schizotypy appears to be a distal risk factor for suicidal behavior; assessing depressive symptoms and self-esteem may provide more proximal information about suicide risk, and may be targets for mitigating suicide risk in individuals with schizotypy. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Assessing social vulnerability to drought in South Africa: Policy implication for drought risk reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fumiso Muyambo

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article was to assess and identify social vulnerability of communal farmers to drought in the O.R. Tambo district in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa using a survey data and social vulnerability index (SoVI. Eleven social vulnerability indicators were identified using Bogardi, Birkman and Cardona conceptual framework. The result found that an SoVI estimated for O.R. Tambo district was very high with a Likert scale of 5 for cultural values and practices, security or safety, social networks, social dependence, preparedness strategies and psychological stress attributed for the high value of social vulnerability to drought. Indigenous knowledge and education had an SoVI value of 2, which was of low vulnerability, contributing positively to resilience to drought. The study also found that government involvement in drought risk reduction is limited; as a result, the study recommends that a national, provincial and district municipalities policy on drought risk reduction and mitigation should be developed.

Moderation and Mediation of an Efficacious Sexual Risk-Reduction Intervention for South African Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

O’Leary, Ann; Jemmott, John B.; Jemmott, Loretta Sweet; Bellamy, Scarlett; Ngwane, Zolani; Icard, Larry

2015-01-01

Background “Let Us Protect Our Future” is a sexual risk-reduction intervention for sixth-grade adolescents in South Africa. Tested in a cluster-randomized controlled trial, the intervention significantly reduced self-reported intercourse and unprotected intercourse during a 12-month follow-up period. Purpose The present analyses were conducted to identify moderators of the intervention’s efficacy as well as which theory-based variables mediated the intervention’s effects. Methods: Intervention efficacy over the 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-ups was tested using generalized estimating equation (GEE) models. Results Living with their father in the home, parental strictness, and religiosity moderated the efficacy of the intervention in reducing unprotected intercourse. Self-efficacy to avoid risky situations and expected parental disapproval of their having intercourse, derived from Social Cognitive Theory, significantly mediated the intervention’s effect on abstinence. Conclusions This is the first study to demonstrate that Social Cognitive variables mediate the efficacy of a sexual risk-reduction intervention among South African adolescents. PMID:22618963

How can health care organisations make and justify decisions about risk reduction? Lessons from a cross-industry review and a health care stakeholder consensus development process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sujan, Mark A.; Habli, Ibrahim; Kelly, Tim P.; Gühnemann, Astrid; Pozzi, Simone; Johnson, Christopher W.

2017-01-01

Interventions to reduce risk often have an associated cost. In UK industries decisions about risk reduction are made and justified within a shared regulatory framework that requires that risk be reduced as low as reasonably practicable. In health care no such regulatory framework exists, and the practice of making decisions about risk reduction is varied and lacks transparency. Can health care organisations learn from relevant industry experiences about making and justifying risk reduction decisions? This paper presents lessons from a qualitative study undertaken with 21 participants from five industries about how such decisions are made and justified in UK industry. Recommendations were developed based on a consensus development exercise undertaken with 20 health care stakeholders. The paper argues that there is a need in health care to develop a regulatory framework and an agreed process for managing explicitly the trade-off between risk reduction and cost. The framework should include guidance about a health care specific notion of acceptable levels of risk, guidance about standardised risk reduction interventions, it should include regulatory incentives for health care organisations to reduce risk, and it should encourage the adoption of an approach for documenting explicitly an organisation's risk position. - Highlights: • Empirical description of industry perceptions on making risk reduction decisions. • Health care consensus development identified five recommendations. • Risk concept should be better integrated into safety management. • Education and awareness about risk concept are required. • Health systems need to start a dialogue about acceptable levels of risk.

Risk related behaviour under different ambient scent conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alina Gagarina

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The article analyses the effect of two ambient scents (peppermint and vanilla and their intensiveness on risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to identify the relationship of ambient scent type and intensiveness with risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Methodology/methods: 2×2 factorial experiment with control group was run. Ambient scent type (vanilla vs. peppermint and intensiveness (8 (1mg vs. 16 sprays (2mg of scent concentrate in the same room were manipulated as between subject variables. Risk aversion, effect of anchoring heuristic on bidding, and affect (risk and benefit heuristics were tracked as dependent variables. Scientific aim: To identify whether ambient scent type and intensiveness have effect on risk related behaviour. Findings: Evidence suggests that there are effects of ambient scent on risk related behaviour, thus fulfilling the missing gap to relate ambient environment to decision making heuristics when risks are involved. However, not all heuristics were affected by experimental conditions. Subjects were bidding significantly higher amounts under low anchor conditions, when peppermint scent was around (if compared to vanilla group. Affect risk was perceived as lower in peppermint ambient scent conditions, if compared to the control group. Intensity of ambient scent also had influence on affect risk: subjects perceived less risk under high scent intensity conditions. Conclusions: By manipulating ambient scent, marketers may reduce or increase consumers risk perception and behaviour and as a consequence influence their purchase decisions. Marketers could use peppermint scent in high intensiveness in the situations where they want consumers to undertake higher risks (expensive purchases, gambling, insurance, since stakes were higher under peppermint ambient scent condition

Revitalising Evidence-based Policy for the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030: Lessons from Existing International Science Partnerships.

Science.gov (United States)

Carabine, Elizabeth

2015-04-23

The convergence of agreements on disaster risk reduction (DRR), development finance, sustainable development and climate change in 2015 presents a unique opportunity for coherence across these inter-related policy areas. At the same time, demand is growing for a more prominent and effective role for science and technology in providing evidence for policy, with the international community recognising that successful disaster risk reduction (DRR) depends on it. Reflecting this ambition, science is included as a core aspect of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, although the ways in which this will be implemented in practice is still unclear. This paper aims to inform the implementation of international science coordination for DRR by examining a number of existing international science partnerships used across other relevant areas of policy to understand best practice, options for coordination and lessons identified. In the field of DRR, the science-policy interface needs to be strengthened in line with the best practice described in this review. An enhanced UNISDR Scientific and Technical Advisory Group will be given the mandate for to enhance the evidence base for DRR and mobilise science and technical work in coordination with a broad range of stakeholders. The structure and function of an enhanced STAG must be as open, as inclusive and as participatory as possible in order to build trust in new and existing institutions at local, national, regional and global levels. The challenge for the international community is to facilitate evidence-based policy making by formally recognising the links between DRR, development finance, sustainable development and climate change in the upcoming post-2015 agreements.

Is there evidence showing that salt intake reduction reduces cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Lanas

2012-02-01

Full Text Available A recent systematic review of Cochrane collaboration about the effect of reducing dietary salt concluded that “there is still insufficient power to exclude clinically important effects of reduced dietary salt on mortality or cardiovascular morbidity in normotensive or hypertensive populations”. This conclusion has generated an important debate, because the estimation that salt reduction can prevent 24% of strokes and 18% of myocardial infarctions has decided the health authorities of several nations to implement salt consumption reduction programs. The review of ecological studies and clinical trials allow to conclude that a reduction in salt consumption reduces blood pressure and methodological well conducted cohort studies has shown that cardiovascular events risk decreases progressively with lower levels of blood pressure. Combining this two finding we can assume that population should benefice from a decrease on salt consumption although there are no studies that shown a reduction in cardiovascular events in population with high sodium intake when dietary salt is reduced.

Therapeutical approach to plasma homocysteine and cardiovascular risk reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcello Ciaccio

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Marcello Ciaccio, Giulia Bivona, Chiara BelliaDepartment of Medical Biotechnologies and Forensic Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Palermo, ItalyAbstract: Homocysteine is a sulfur-containing aminoacid produced during metabolism of methionine. Since 1969 the relationship between altered homocysteine metabolism and both coronary and peripheral atherotrombosis is known; in recent years experimental evidences have shown that elevated plasma levels of homocysteine are associated with an increased risk of atherosclerosis and cardiovascular ischemic events. Several mechanisms by which elevated homocysteine impairs vascular function have been proposed, including impairment of endothelial function, production of reactive oxygen species (ROS and consequent oxidation of low-density lipids. Endothelial function is altered in subjects with hyperhomocysteinemia, and endothelial dysfunction is correlated with plasma levels of homocysteine. Folic acid and B vitamins, required for remethylation of homocysteine to methionine, are the most important dietary determinants of homocysteine and daily supplementation typically lowers plasma homocysteine levels; it is still unclear whether the decreased plasma levels of homocysteine through diet or drugs may be paralleled by a reduction in cardiovascular risk.Keywords: homocysteine, MTHFR, cardiovascular disease, folate, B vitamin

An office-based approach to emotional and behavioral risk factor reduction for cardiovascular disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Hochman, Daniel M; Feinstein, Robert E; Stauter, Erinn C

2013-01-01

There are many psychological risk factors for cardiovascular disease, and the ability to reduce mortality depends on an ability to integrate care of these risk factors with traditional Framingham cardiovascular risk and use them both in routine practice. The aim of this article is to provide an update of all the major emotional and behavioral cardiovascular risk factors along with a practical treatment model for implementation. First, we provide a review of major emotional and behavioral cardiovascular risk factors, the associated primary effect, and proposed mechanism of action. Second, we provide an office-based approach to cardiovascular risk factor reduction and methods of reducing barriers to implementation, called Prevention Oriented Primary Care-Abridged. The approach integrates several forms of detection, assessment using the 3As (ask, assess, assist), and Stages of Change approaches, and subsequent efficient and targeted treatment with either Motivational Interviewing or further office intervention. A case example is provided to help illustrate this process.

Evaluation of a Peer-Led Drug Abuse Risk Reduction Project for Runaway/Homeless Youths.

Science.gov (United States)

Fors, Stuart W.; Jarvis, Sara

1995-01-01

Evaluates the Drug Prevention in Youth risk reduction program that was implemented in shelters for runaway/homeless youths in the southeastern United States. An evaluation strategy was developed allowing for comparisons between peer-led, adult-led and nonintervention groups. Well-trained and motivated peer/near-peer leaders made particularly…

Existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Jebari, Karim

2015-06-01

A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind of event. Neither can probabilistic risk analysis. This paper will argue that the approach that is referred to as engineering safety could be applied to reducing the risk from black swan extinction events. It will also propose a conceptual sketch of how such a strategy may be implemented: isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges. Some characteristics of such refuges are also described, in particular the psychosocial aspects. Furthermore, it is argued that this implementation of the engineering safety strategy safety barriers would be effective and plausible and could reduce the risk of an extinction event in a wide range of possible (known and unknown) scenarios. Considering the staggering opportunity cost of an existential catastrophe, such strategies ought to be explored more vigorously.

Earthquake risk reduction in the United States: An assessment of selected user needs and recommendations for the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1994-12-31

This Assessment was conducted to improve the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) by providing NEHRP agencies with information that supports their user-oriented setting of crosscutting priorities in the NEHRP strategic planning process. The primary objective of this Assessment was to take a ``snapshot`` evaluation of the needs of selected users throughout the major program elements of NEHRP. Secondary objectives were to conduct an assessment of the knowledge that exists (or is being developed by NEHRP) to support earthquake risk reduction, and to begin a process of evaluating how NEHRP is meeting user needs. An identification of NEHRP`s strengths also resulted from the effort, since those strengths demonstrate successful methods that may be useful to NEHRP in the future. These strengths are identified in the text, and many of them represent important achievements since the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act was passed in 1977.

Relative and absolute risk in epidemiology and health physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldsmith, R.; Peterson, H.T. Jr.

1983-01-01

The health risk from ionizing radiation commonly is expressed in two forms: (1) the relative risk, which is the percentage increase in natural disease rate and (2) the absolute or attributable risk which represents the difference between the natural rate and the rate associated with the agent in question. Relative risk estimates for ionizing radiation generally are higher than those expressed as the absolute risk. This raises the question of which risk estimator is the most appropriate under different conditions. The absolute risk has generally been used for radiation risk assessment, although mathematical combinations such as the arithmetic or geometric mean of both the absolute and relative risks, have also been used. Combinations of the two risk estimators are not valid because the absolute and relative risk are not independent variables. Both human epidemiologic studies and animal experimental data can be found to illustrate the functional relationship between the natural cancer risk and the risk associated with radiation. This implies that the radiation risk estimate derived from one population may not be appropriate for predictions in another population, unless it is adjusted for the difference in the natural disease incidence between the two populations

Priority of a Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relation with a Normal Distribution in Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Lihong; Gong, Zaiwu

2017-10-10

As meteorological disaster systems are large complex systems, disaster reduction programs must be based on risk analysis. Consequently, judgment by an expert based on his or her experience (also known as qualitative evaluation) is an important link in meteorological disaster risk assessment. In some complex and non-procedural meteorological disaster risk assessments, a hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation (HFLPR) is often used to deal with a situation in which experts may be hesitant while providing preference information of a pairwise comparison of alternatives, that is, the degree of preference of one alternative over another. This study explores hesitation from the perspective of statistical distributions, and obtains an optimal ranking of an HFLPR based on chance-restricted programming, which provides a new approach for hesitant fuzzy optimisation of decision-making in meteorological disaster risk assessments.

Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tarp Hansen, Anette; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

2017-01-01

The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Anette Tarp; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

2017-01-01

The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

Ecohydrology of agroecosystems: probabilistic description of yield reduction risk under limited water availability

Science.gov (United States)

Vico, Giulia; Porporato, Amilcare

2013-04-01

Supplemental irrigation represents one of the main strategies to mitigate the effects of climate variability and stabilize yields. Irrigated agriculture currently provides 40% of food production and its relevance is expected to further increase in the near future, in face of the projected alterations of rainfall patterns and increase in food, fiber, and biofuel demand. Because of the significant investments and water requirements involved in irrigation, strategic choices are needed to preserve productivity and profitability, while maintaining a sustainable water management - a nontrivial task given the unpredictability of the rainfall forcing. To facilitate decision making under uncertainty, a widely applicable probabilistic framework is proposed. The occurrence of rainfall events and irrigation applications are linked probabilistically to crop development during the growing season and yields at harvest. Based on these linkages, the probability density function of yields and corresponding probability density function of required irrigation volumes, as well as the probability density function of yields under the most common case of limited water availability are obtained analytically, as a function of irrigation strategy, climate, soil and crop parameters. The full probabilistic description of the frequency of occurrence of yields and water requirements is a crucial tool for decision making under uncertainty, e.g., via expected utility analysis. Furthermore, the knowledge of the probability density function of yield allows us to quantify the yield reduction hydrologic risk. Two risk indices are defined and quantified: the long-term risk index, suitable for long-term irrigation strategy assessment and investment planning, and the real-time risk index, providing a rigorous probabilistic quantification of the emergence of drought conditions during a single growing season in an agricultural setting. Our approach employs relatively few parameters and is thus easily and

Communication products for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario: Chapter K in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Suzanne C.

2013-01-01

Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR), like its predecessor the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, has a mission to increase the use of science by decision-makers of all kinds. Thus, an important part of any SAFRR scenario is development of products that enhance usability of the science. In this tsunami scenario, the focus has been on development of three kinds of products: products that augment typical outputs of scientific studies, such as reports, to make the results of the scenario more relevant and usable to nonscientists; products that distill local impacts and allow users in specific locales to identify which aspects of the broad regional study apply to their local area; and

Association of Proton Pump Inhibitors With Reduced Risk of Warfarin-Related Serious Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

Science.gov (United States)

Ray, Wayne A; Chung, Cecilia P; Murray, Katherine T; Smalley, Walter E; Daugherty, James R; Dupont, William D; Stein, C Michael

2016-12-01

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) might reduce the risk of serious warfarin-related upper gastrointestinal bleeding, but the evidence of their efficacy for this indication is limited. A gastroprotective effect of PPIs would be particularly important for patients who take warfarin with antiplatelet drugs or nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), which further increase the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding. This retrospective cohort study of patients beginning warfarin treatment in Tennessee Medicaid and the 5% National Medicare Sample identified 97,430 new episodes of warfarin treatment with 75,720 person-years of follow-up. The study end points were hospitalizations for upper gastrointestinal bleeding potentially preventable by PPIs and for bleeding at other sites. Patients who took warfarin without PPI co-therapy had 119 hospitalizations for upper gastrointestinal bleeding per 10,000 person-years of treatment. The risk decreased by 24% among patients who received PPI co-therapy (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63-0.91). There was no significant reduction in the risk of other gastrointestinal bleeding hospitalizations (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.94-1.22) or non-gastrointestinal bleeding hospitalizations (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.84-1.15) in this group. Among patients concurrently using antiplatelet drugs or NSAIDs, those without PPI co-therapy had 284 upper gastrointestinal bleeding hospitalizations per 10,000 person-years of warfarin treatment. The risk decreased by 45% (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.39-0.77) with PPI co-therapy. PPI co-therapy had no significant protective effect for warfarin patients not using antiplatelet drugs or NSAIDs (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.70-1.06). Findings were similar in both study populations. In an analysis of patients beginning warfarin treatment in Tennessee Medicaid and the 5% National Medicare Sample, PPI co-therapy was associated with reduced risk of warfarin-related upper gastrointestinal bleeding; the

A Brief Report: Lessons Learned and Preliminary Findings of Progreso en Salud, an HIV Risk Reduction Intervention for Latina Seasonal Farmworkers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kanamori, Mariano; De La Rosa, Mario; Diez, Stephanie; Weissman, Jessica; Trepka, Mary Jo; Sneij, Alicia; Schmidt, Peter; Rojas, Patria

2016-12-30

Throughout the past decade, HIV rates in Florida-particularly South Florida, where many Latina seasonal farmworkers reside and work-have ranked among the highest in the nation. In this brief report, we delineate important lessons learned and preliminary findings from the implementation of the HIV prevention intervention Progreso en Salud (Progress in Health). Among the 114 Latina seasonal farmworker participants, there were significant increases from baseline to 6-month follow-up in the percentages of overall condom use, HIV testing, HIV/AIDS-related communications with friends, HIV knowledge, condom use self-efficacy, and correct use of condoms. Lessons learned from this study can be used to inform future HIV intervention strategies to improve the adoption and maintenance of HIV risk reduction behaviors among high-risk Latina seasonal workers and other high-risk underserved populations. Future research is needed to support our findings.

Education for disaster risk reduction : linking theory with practice in Ghana´s basic schools

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Apronti, Priscilla; Saito, Osamu; Otsuki, K.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/306279258; Kranjac-Berisavljevic, Gordana

2015-01-01

Current understanding of disaster risk reduction (DRR) concurs that, when provided the right education, children have the potential to reduce their own vulnerability and the vulnerability of others in their community. What, then, comprises the right education for DRR? Research has established the

Effects of a Community-Based HIV Risk Reduction Intervention Among HIV-Positive Individuals: Results of a Quasi-Experimental Study in Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Poudel, Krishna C; Buchanan, David R; Poudel-Tandukar, Kalpana

2015-06-01

We evaluated the efficacy of a sexual risk reduction intervention utilizing protection motivation and social cognitive theories to address knowledge, threat and coping appraisals, and condom use intentions among HIV-positive individuals in Nepal. Using a quasi-experimental research design, we assigned 277 participants to intervention (n=146) and control (n=131) groups. The intervention group received six sessions on sexual risk reduction strategies and the control group six sessions on medication adherence, smoking, and mental health. Data were collected at baseline and immediately after the intervention. Results indicate that the sexual risk reduction intervention produced a significant increase in HIV transmission knowledge, perceived threat and coping appraisals, and intentions to use condoms with regular, HIV-positive, and HIV-negative partners. The positive effects of the intervention remained significant after adjusting for baseline scores and other potential confounders. In conclusion, our theory-based sexual risk reduction intervention was effective in improving HIV transmission knowledge, perceived threat and coping appraisals, and condom use intentions. Further studies are needed to evaluate the long-term efficacy of the intervention in increasing protection motivation and maintaining preventive behaviors.

The Role of Family in a Dietary Risk Reduction Intervention for Cardiovascular Disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tracy L. Schumacher

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Diet is an essential strategy for the prevention of primary and secondary cardiovascular disease (CVD events. The objectives were to examine: how families at increased risk of CVD perceived personal risk, their motivations to make dietary changes, their understanding of diet, and the influence of other family members. Individuals (>18 years who completed an Australian family-based CVD risk reduction program were invited to a semi-structured telephone interview. Responses were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using a systematic deductive approach with coding derived from key concepts developed as part of the interview structure. Seventeen participants from eight families were interviewed (aged 18–70 years, 47% male, five with CVD diagnosis. Key themes indicated both intrinsic and extrinsic motivations to improve heart health, variations in risk perception, recognition of the role diet plays in heart health, and the extent of family influences on eating patterns. Discrepancies between perceived and actual CVD risk perception impacted on perceived “need” to modify current dietary patterns towards heart health recommendations. Therefore, strategies not reliant on risk perception are needed to engage those with low risk perception. This could involve identifying and accessing the family “ringleader” to influence involvement and capitalising on personal accountability to other family members.

The Role of Family in a Dietary Risk Reduction Intervention for Cardiovascular Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Schumacher, Tracy L; Burrows, Tracy L; Thompson, Deborah I; Callister, Robin; Spratt, Neil J; Collins, Clare E

2016-09-30

Diet is an essential strategy for the prevention of primary and secondary cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. The objectives were to examine: how families at increased risk of CVD perceived personal risk, their motivations to make dietary changes, their understanding of diet, and the influence of other family members. Individuals (>18 years) who completed an Australian family-based CVD risk reduction program were invited to a semi-structured telephone interview. Responses were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using a systematic deductive approach with coding derived from key concepts developed as part of the interview structure. Seventeen participants from eight families were interviewed (aged 18-70 years, 47% male, five with CVD diagnosis). Key themes indicated both intrinsic and extrinsic motivations to improve heart health, variations in risk perception, recognition of the role diet plays in heart health, and the extent of family influences on eating patterns. Discrepancies between perceived and actual CVD risk perception impacted on perceived "need" to modify current dietary patterns towards heart health recommendations. Therefore, strategies not reliant on risk perception are needed to engage those with low risk perception. This could involve identifying and accessing the family "ringleader" to influence involvement and capitalising on personal accountability to other family members.

Breast Reduction Surgery

Science.gov (United States)

... considering breast reduction surgery, consult a board-certified plastic surgeon. It's important to understand what breast reduction surgery entails — including possible risks and complications — as ...

Reductive stress in young healthy individuals at risk of Alzheimer disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Badía, Mari-Carmen; Giraldo, Esther; Dasí, Francisco; Alonso, Dolores; Lainez, Jose M; Lloret, Ana; Viña, Jose

2013-10-01

Oxidative stress is a hallmark of Alzheimer disease (AD) but this has not been studied in young healthy persons at risk of the disease. Carrying an Apo ε4 allele is the major genetic risk factor for AD. We have observed that lymphocytes from young, healthy persons carrying at least one Apo ε4 allele suffer from reductive rather than oxidative stress, i.e., lower oxidized glutathione and P-p38 levels and higher expression of enzymes involved in antioxidant defense, such as glutamylcysteinyl ligase and glutathione peroxidase. In contrast, in the full-blown disease, the situation is reversed and oxidative stress occurs, probably because of the exhaustion of the antioxidant mechanisms just mentioned. These results provide insights into the early events of the progression of the disease that may allow us to find biomarkers of AD at its very early stages. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factors that may Account for Cardiovascular Risk Reduction with a Dipeptidyl Peptidase-4 Inhibitor, Vildagliptin, in Young Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Marc; Kozlovski, Plamen; Paldánius, Päivi M; Foley, James E; Bhosekar, Vaishali; Serban, Carmen; Avogaro, Angelo

2018-02-01

In a meta-analysis, we observed a significant 37% relative risk reduction in prospectively adjudicated major adverse cardiac events [MACEs, comprising of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, cardiovascular (CV) death] with vildagliptin vs. comparators in younger (vildagliptin vs. comparators) for the change from baseline in CV risk factors were analyzed using an analysis of covariance model with the baseline value for each variable of interest, treatment and study as covariates. Additional adjustments for background antihypertensive and statin use were performed when analyzing changes in blood pressure and lipids, respectively. Baseline characteristics and patient demographics were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Patients aged vildagliptin relative to comparators, which were similar in both age groups. Significant differences were observed in the reduction in systolic blood pressure (SBP) (- 0.52 mmHg; 95% CI - 0.97, - 0.07; p = 0.023), low-density lipoprotein (LDL cholesterol) (- 0.12 mmol/l; 95% CI - 0.19, - 0.04; p = 0.002) and weight (- 0.48 kg; 95% CI - 0.95, - 0.01; p vildagliptin [2.1 and 3.5 per 100 subject years exposure (SYEs) in vildagliptin on SBP, LDL cholesterol, hypoglycemia and weight observed in younger, but not in older patients could be associated with the lower risk of MACE in younger patients with T2DM. Novartis.

Comparison of cost effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems: French case studies. Final report of the co-ordinated research programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lochard, Jacques

1989-08-01

This report presents the three French case studies performed in the framework of the coordinated research program on 'Comparison of Cost-effectiveness of Risk Reduction among different Energy Systems': Cost effectiveness of robotics and remote tooling for occupational risk reduction at a nuclear fuel fabrication facility; Cost-effectiveness of protection actions to reduce occupational exposures in underground uranium mines; Cost-effectiveness of safety measures to reduce public risk associated with the transportation of UF 6 by truck and trains

Wildfire risk reduction in the United States: Leadership staff perceptions of local fire department roles and responsibilities

Science.gov (United States)

Rachel S. Madsen; Hylton J. G. Haynes; Sarah M. McCaffrey

2018-01-01

As wildland fires have had increasing negative impacts on a range of human values, in many parts of the United States (U.S.) and around the world, collaborative risk reduction efforts among agencies, homeowners, and fire departments are needed to improve wildfire safety and mitigate risk. Using interview data from 46 senior officers from local fire departments around...

Medication Adherence Improvements in Employees Participating in a Pharmacist-Run Risk Reduction Program

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mallory C. McKenzie

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the medication adherence of individuals participating in a pharmacist-run employee health Cardiovascular and Diabetes Risk Reduction Program. Design: Retrospective analysis of medication adherence using pharmacy refill data. Setting: A medium sized university located in the Midwest United States and the organization's outpatient pharmacy. Participants: 38 participants ≥ 18 years of age, employed and receiving their health insurance through the organization, and have a diagnosis of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, or a combination thereof. Intervention: Participation in the risk reduction program that emphasizes medication therapy management (MTM, lifestyle medicine and care coordination. Main Outcome Measures: The Proportion of Days Covered (PDC and the Medication Possession Ratio (MPR. Results: PDC and MPR analysis showed a statistically significant improvement in medication adherence for 180 days and 360 days post enrollment versus the 180 days prior to enrollment (P<0.01. The PDC analysis demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in the number of medications that achieved a PDC ≥ 80% (high adherence for the 180 days post enrollment versus the 180 days prior to enrollment (+30%, P<0.01. The MPR analysis showed a non-statistically significant improvement in the number of medications that achieved an MPR ≥ 80% (high adherence pre enrollment versus post enrollment (+10%, P=0.086. The percentage of participants in the program that reached a PDC and MPR adherence rate ≥ 80% at 180 days post enrollment was 78.9% and 94.4%, respectively which exceeds that of a matched cohort that reached a PDC and MPR adherence rate ≥ 80% of 66.4% and 82.8%, respectively. Conclusion: Pharmacists can improve medication adherence as measured by PDC and MPR when working with employees enrolled in a novel pharmacist-run employee health risk reduction program. Medication adherence was shown to be sustainable for

Data poverty: A global evaluation for 2009 to 2013 - implications for sustainable development and disaster risk reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Leidig, Mathias; Teeuw, Richard M.; Gibson, Andrew D.

2016-08-01

The article presents a time series (2009-2013) analysis for a new version of the ;Digital Divide; concept that developed in the 1990s. Digital information technologies, such as the Internet, mobile phones and social media, provide vast amounts of data for decision-making and resource management. The Data Poverty Index (DPI) provides an open-source means of annually evaluating global access to data and information. The DPI can be used to monitor aspects of data and information availability at global and national levels, with potential application at local (district) levels. Access to data and information is a major factor in disaster risk reduction, increased resilience to disaster and improved adaptation to climate change. In that context, the DPI could be a useful tool for monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). The effects of severe data poverty, particularly limited access to geoinformatic data, free software and online training materials, are discussed in the context of sustainable development and disaster risk reduction. Unlike many other indices, the DPI is underpinned by datasets that are consistently provided annually for almost all the countries of the world and can be downloaded without restriction or cost.

Age-related reduction of adaptive brain response during semantic integration is associated with gray matter reduction.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zude Zhu

Full Text Available While aging is associated with increased knowledge, it is also associated with decreased semantic integration. To investigate brain activation changes during semantic integration, a sample of forty-eight 25-75 year-old adults read sentences with high cloze (HC and low cloze (LC probability while functional magnetic resonance imaging was conducted. Significant age-related reduction of cloze effect (LC vs. HC was found in several regions, especially the left middle frontal gyrus (MFG and right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG, which play an important role in semantic integration. Moreover, when accounting for global gray matter volume reduction, the age-cloze correlation in the left MFG and right IFG was absent. The results suggest that brain structural atrophy may disrupt brain response in aging brains, which then show less brain engagement in semantic integration.

Communicating Treatment Risk Reduction to People With Low Numeracy Skills: A Cross-Cultural Comparison

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

Objectives. We sought to address denominator neglect (i.e. the focus on the number of treated and nontreated patients who died, without sufficiently considering the overall numbers of patients) in estimates of treatment risk reduction, and analyzed whether icon arrays aid comprehension. Methods. We performed a survey of probabilistic, national samples in the United States and Germany in July and August of 2008. Participants received scenarios involving equally effective treatments but differing in the overall number of treated and nontreated patients. In some conditions, the number who received a treatment equaled the number who did not; in others the number was smaller or larger. Some participants received icon arrays. Results. Participants—particularly those with low numeracy skills—showed denominator neglect in treatment risk reduction perceptions. Icon arrays were an effective method for eliminating denominator neglect. We found cross-cultural differences that are important in light of the countries' different medical systems. Conclusions. Problems understanding numerical information often reside not in the mind but in the problem's representation. These findings suggest suitable ways to communicate quantitative medical data. PMID:19833983

Hand hygiene regimens for the reduction of risk in food service environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Edmonds, Sarah L; McCormack, Robert R; Zhou, Sifang Steve; Macinga, David R; Fricker, Christopher M

2012-07-01

Pathogenic strains of Escherichia coli and human norovirus are the main etiologic agents of foodborne illness resulting from inadequate hand hygiene practices by food service workers. This study was conducted to evaluate the antibacterial and antiviral efficacy of various hand hygiene product regimens under different soil conditions representative of those in food service settings and assess the impact of product formulation on this efficacy. On hands contaminated with chicken broth containing E. coli, representing a moderate soil load, a regimen combining an antimicrobial hand washing product with a 70% ethanol advanced formula (EtOH AF) gel achieved a 5.22-log reduction, whereas a nonantimicrobial hand washing product alone achieved a 3.10log reduction. When hands were heavily soiled from handling ground beef containing E. coli, a wash-sanitize regimen with a 0.5% chloroxylenol antimicrobial hand washing product and the 70% EtOH AF gel achieved a 4.60-log reduction, whereas a wash-sanitize regimen with a 62% EtOH foam achieved a 4.11-log reduction. Sanitizing with the 70% EtOH AF gel alone was more effective than hand washing with a nonantimicrobial product for reducing murine norovirus (MNV), a surrogate for human norovirus, with 2.60- and 1.79-log reductions, respectively. When combined with hand washing, the 70% EtOH AF gel produced a 3.19-log reduction against MNV. A regimen using the SaniTwice protocol with the 70% EtOH AF gel produced a 4.04-log reduction against MNV. These data suggest that although the process of hand washing helped to remove pathogens from the hands, use of a wash-sanitize regimen was even more effective for reducing organisms. Use of a high-efficacy sanitizer as part of a wash-sanitize regimen further increased the efficacy of the regimen. The use of a well-formulated alcohol-based hand rub as part of a wash-sanitize regimen should be considered as a means to reduce risk of infection transmission in food service facilities.

Perceived risks in online hotel services acquisition: Determinant factors of reduction strategies and their relation with consumer´s demographical characteristics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anderson Gomes de Souza

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article was to identify which factors determine the adoption of strategies to reduce perceived risk in the purchase of hotel services online, checking whether there is any relation between those relievers and demographical characteristics. A factor analysis was conducted after application of a structured questionnaire with consumers who have a habit of traveling and booking hotels through the internet. The results showed that the factors that characterize the strategies used by consumers as a means of reducing risk in the virtual environment are: users and partners own experience, regulation guarantees and certainty and higher price. That is, it can be considered that these factors are relevant and tend to be used by consumers as a way to reduce risks when purchasing a hotel service online. On the other hand, it was found that demographic characteristics show no relationship with consumers´ perception of risk. With these results, the question that remains is whether the companies in this field of activity develop actions aligned with these factors in order to enable consumers to reduce their risk perceptions while buying these services on websites.

Effects of Geographic Diversification on Risk Pooling to Mitigate Drought-Related Financial Losses for Water Utilities

Science.gov (United States)

Baum, Rachel; Characklis, Gregory W.; Serre, Marc L.

2018-04-01

As the costs and regulatory barriers to new water supply development continue to rise, drought management strategies have begun to rely more heavily on temporary conservation measures. While these measures are effective, they often lead to intermittent and unpredictable reductions in revenues that are financially disruptive to water utilities, raising concerns over lower credit ratings and higher rates of borrowing for this capital intensive sector. Consequently, there is growing interest in financial risk management strategies that reduce utility vulnerabilities. This research explores the development of financial index insurance designed to compensate a utility for drought-related losses. The focus is on analyzing candidate hydrologic indices that have the potential to be used by utilities across the US, increasing the potential for risk pooling, which would offer the possibility of both lower risk management costs and more widespread implementation. This work first analyzes drought-related financial risks for 315 publicly operated water utilities across the country and examines the effectiveness of financial contracts based on several indices both in terms of their correlation with utility revenues and their spatial autocorrelation across locations. Hydrologic-based index insurance contracts are then developed and tested over a 120 year period. Results indicate that risk pooling, even under conditions in which droughts are subject to some level of spatial autocorrelation, has the potential to significantly reduce the cost of managing financial risk.

Risk-based enteric pathogen reduction targets for non-potable and direct potable use of roof runoff, stormwater, and greywater

Science.gov (United States)

This paper presents risk-based enteric pathogen log reduction targets for non-potable and potable uses of a variety of alternative source waters (i.e., locally-collected greywater, roof runoff, and stormwater). A probabilistic Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) was use...

Comparison of cost effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems: French case studies. Final report of the co-ordinated research programme

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lochard, Jacques [ed.

1989-08-01

This report presents the three French case studies performed in the framework of the coordinated research program on 'Comparison of Cost-effectiveness of Risk Reduction among different Energy Systems': Cost effectiveness of robotics and remote tooling for occupational risk reduction at a nuclear fuel fabrication facility; Cost-effectiveness of protection actions to reduce occupational exposures in underground uranium mines; Cost-effectiveness of safety measures to reduce public risk associated with the transportation of UF{sub 6} by truck and trains.

Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

2012-01-01

Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

Association of bariatric surgery with risk of acute care use for hypertension-related disease in obese adults: population-based self-controlled case series study.

Science.gov (United States)

Shimada, Yuichi J; Tsugawa, Yusuke; Iso, Hiroyasu; Brown, David F M; Hasegawa, Kohei

2017-08-23

Hypertension carries a large societal burden. Obesity is known as a risk factor for hypertension. However, little is known as to whether weight loss interventions reduce the risk of hypertension-related adverse events, such as acute care use (emergency department [ED] visit and/or unplanned hospitalization). We used bariatric surgery as an instrument for investigating the effect of large weight reduction on the risk of acute care use for hypertension-related disease in obese adults with hypertension. We performed a self-controlled case series study of obese patients with hypertension who underwent bariatric surgery using population-based ED and inpatient databases that recorded every bariatric surgery, ED visit, and hospitalization in three states (California, Florida, and Nebraska) from 2005 to 2011. The primary outcome was acute care use for hypertension-related disease. We used conditional logistic regression to compare each patient's risk of the outcome event during sequential 12-month periods, using pre-surgery months 13-24 as the reference period. We identified 980 obese patients with hypertension who underwent bariatric surgery. The median age was 48 years (interquartile range, 40-56 years), 74% were female, and 55% were non-Hispanic white. During the reference period, 17.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.4-20.2%) had a primary outcome event. The risk remained unchanged in the subsequent 12-month pre-surgery period (18.2% [95% CI, 15.7-20.6%]; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.02 [95% CI, 0.83-1.27]; P = 0.83). In the first 12-month period after bariatric surgery, the risk significantly decreased (10.5% [8.6-12.4%]; aOR 0.58 [95% CI, 0.45-0.74]; P bariatric surgery (12.9% [95% CI, 10.8-15.0%]; aOR 0.71 [95% CI, 0.57-0.90]; P = 0.005). By contrast, there was no significant reduction in the risk among obese patients who underwent non-bariatric surgery (i.e., cholecystectomy, hysterectomy, spinal fusion, or mastectomy). In this population-based study of

Assessing the risk of work-related international travel.

Science.gov (United States)

Druckman, Myles; Harber, Philip; Liu, Yihang; Quigley, Robert L

2014-11-01

To identify factors affecting the likelihood of requiring medical services during international business trips. Data from more than 800,000 international trips and medical assistance cases provided to 48 multinational corporations in 2009. Travel destination countries were grouped into four a priori risk-related categories. Travel to "low" medical risk countries in aggregate accounted for more hospitalizations and medical evacuations than travel to "high" medical risk countries. Nevertheless, the risk per trip was much higher for travel to higher medical risk countries. Corporations with employees on international travel should allocate sufficient resources to manage and ideally prevent medical issues during business travel. Travel medicine must focus on more than infectious diseases, and programs are necessary for both high- and low-risk regions. Improved understanding of travel-related needs determines resource allocation and risk mitigation efforts.

A Brief Report: Lessons Learned and Preliminary Findings of Progreso en Salud, an HIV Risk Reduction Intervention for Latina Seasonal Farmworkers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariano Kanamori

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Throughout the past decade, HIV rates in Florida—particularly South Florida, where many Latina seasonal farmworkers reside and work—have ranked among the highest in the nation. In this brief report, we delineate important lessons learned and preliminary findings from the implementation of the HIV prevention intervention Progreso en Salud (Progress in Health. Among the 114 Latina seasonal farmworker participants, there were significant increases from baseline to 6-month follow-up in the percentages of overall condom use, HIV testing, HIV/AIDS-related communications with friends, HIV knowledge, condom use self-efficacy, and correct use of condoms. Lessons learned from this study can be used to inform future HIV intervention strategies to improve the adoption and maintenance of HIV risk reduction behaviors among high-risk Latina seasonal workers and other high-risk underserved populations. Future research is needed to support our findings.

Risk reduction by combining nature values with flood protection?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Van Loon-Steensma Jantsje M.

2016-01-01

foreland into the dike design does not automatically mean that nature values and flood protection are well integrated. Flood protection imposes rather different requirements on the extent and features of marshes than nature conservation and development. Wave damping is most effective with a high and stable marsh, while nature thrives with dynamic processes and differences in elevation. Therefore, only a design that allows natural marsh dynamics and includes different marsh zones could combine nature values with flood protection. In practice, this means a dike design with an uncertain foreland, that offers space for natural processes. The uncertainty in foreland development reduces the possible flood risk reduction. In our paper we describe the critical points of interest concerning risk reduction in this system.

Susceptibility of murine norovirus and hepatitis A virus to electron beam irradiation in oysters and quantifying the reduction in potential infection risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Praveen, Chandni; Dancho, Brooke A; Kingsley, David H; Calci, Kevin R; Meade, Gloria K; Mena, Kristina D; Pillai, Suresh D

2013-06-01

Consumption of raw oysters is an exposure route for human norovirus (NoV) and hepatitis A virus (HAV). Therefore, efficient postharvest oyster treatment technology is needed to reduce public health risks. This study evaluated the inactivation of HAV and the NoV research surrogate, murine norovirus-1 (MNV-1), in oysters (Crassostrea virginica) by electron beam (E-beam) irradiation. The reduction of potential infection risks was quantified for E-beam irradiation technology employed on raw oysters at various virus contamination levels. The E-beam dose required to reduce the MNV and HAV titer by 90% (D(10) value) in whole oysters was 4.05 (standard deviations [SD], ±0.63) and 4.83 (SD, ±0.08) kGy, respectively. Microbial risk assessment suggests that if a typical serving of 12 raw oysters was contaminated with 10(5) PFU, a 5-kGy treatment would achieve a 12% reduction (from 4.49 out of 10 persons to 3.95 out of 10 persons) in NoV infection and a 16% reduction (from 9.21 out of 10 persons to 7.76 out of 10 persons) in HAV infections. If the serving size contained only 10(2) PFU of viruses, a 5-kGy treatment would achieve a 26% reduction (2.74 out of 10 persons to 2.03 out of 10 persons) of NoV and 91% reduction (2.1 out of 10 persons to 1.93 out of 100 persons) of HAV infection risks. This study shows that although E-beam processing cannot completely eliminate the risk of viral illness, infection risks can be reduced.

An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

Science.gov (United States)

Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

2014-07-01

The uncertainty brought about by intermittent volcanic activity is fairly common at volcanoes worldwide. While better knowledge of any one volcano's behavioural characteristics has the potential to reduce this uncertainty, the subsequent reduction of risk from volcanic threats is only realised if that knowledge is pertinent to stakeholders and effectively communicated to inform good decision making. Success requires integration of methods, skills and expertise across disciplinary boundaries. This research project develops and trials a novel interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). For the first time, volcanological techniques, probabilistic decision support and social scientific methods were integrated in a single study. New data were produced that (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience; and (5) evaluated the effectiveness of a scenario planning approach, both as a method for integrating the different strands of the research and as a way of enabling on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification and management, and capacity building within their community. The paper provides empirical evidence of the value of an innovative interdisciplinary framework for reducing volcanic risk. It also provides evidence for the strength that comes from integrating social and physical sciences with the development of effective, tailored engagement and communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

Modeling Fuel Treatment Leverage: Encounter Rates, Risk Reduction, and Suppression Cost Impacts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew P. Thompson

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The primary theme of this study is the cost-effectiveness of fuel treatments at multiple scales of investment. We focused on the nexus of fuel management and suppression response planning, designing spatial fuel treatment strategies to incorporate landscape features that provide control opportunities that are relevant to fire operations. Our analysis explored the frequency and magnitude of fire-treatment encounters, which are critical determinants of treatment efficacy. Additionally, we examined avoided area burned, avoided suppression costs, and avoided damages, and combined all three under the umbrella of leverage to explore multiple dimensions with which to characterize return on investment. We chose the Sierra National Forest, California, USA, as our study site, due to previous work providing relevant data and analytical products, and because it has the potential for large, long-duration fires and corresponding potential for high suppression expenditures. Modeling results generally confirmed that fire-treatment encounters are rare, such that median suppression cost savings are zero, but in extreme years, savings can more than offset upfront investments. Further, reductions in risk can expand areas where moderated suppression response would be appropriate, and these areas can be mapped in relation to fire control opportunities.

People at High Risk of Developing Flu-Related Complications

Science.gov (United States)

... Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other People at High Risk of Developing Flu–Related Complications ... related complications if they get sick with influenza. People at High Risk for Developing Flu-Related Complications ...

Forging process design for risk reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, Yongning

In this dissertation, forging process design has been investigated with the primary concern on risk reduction. Different forged components have been studied, especially those ones that could cause catastrophic loss if failure occurs. As an effective modeling methodology, finite element analysis is applied extensively in this work. Three examples, titanium compressor disk, superalloy turbine disk, and titanium hip prosthesis, have been discussed to demonstrate this approach. Discrete defects such as hard alpha anomalies are known to cause disastrous failure if they are present in those stress critical components. In this research, hard-alpha inclusion movement during forging of titanium compressor disk is studied by finite element analysis. By combining the results from Finite Element Method (FEM), regression modeling and Monte Carlo simulation, it is shown that changing the forging path is able to mitigate the failure risk of the components during the service. The second example goes with a turbine disk made of superalloy IN 718. The effect of forging on microstructure is the main consideration in this study. Microstructure defines the as-forged disk properties. Considering specific forging conditions, preform has its own effect on the microstructure. Through a sensitivity study it is found that forging temperature and speed have significant influence on the microstructure. In order to choose the processing parameters to optimize the microstructure, the dependence of microstructure on die speed and temperature is thoroughly studied using design of numerical experiments. For various desired goals, optimal solutions are determined. The narrow processing window of titanium alloy makes the isothermal forging a preferred way to produce forged parts without forging defects. However, the cost of isothermal forging (dies at the same temperature as the workpiece) limits its wide application. In this research, it has been demonstrated that with proper process design, the die

Gastric Bypass Surgery Produces a Durable Reduction in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Reduces the Long-Term Risks of Congestive Heart Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Benotti, Peter N; Wood, G Craig; Carey, David J; Mehra, Vishal C; Mirshahi, Tooraj; Lent, Michelle R; Petrick, Anthony T; Still, Christopher; Gerhard, Glenn S; Hirsch, Annemarie G

2017-05-23

Obesity and its association with reduced life expectancy are well established, with cardiovascular disease as one of the major causes of fatality. Metabolic surgery is a powerful intervention for severe obesity, resulting in improvement in comorbid diseases and in cardiovascular risk factors. This study investigates the relationship between metabolic surgery and long-term cardiovascular events. A cohort of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB) patients was tightly matched by age, body mass index, sex, Framingham Risk Score, smoking history, use of antihypertension medication, diabetes mellitus status, and calendar year with a concurrent cohort of nonoperated control patients. The primary study end points of major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, and congestive heart failure) were evaluated using Cox regression. Secondary end points of longitudinal cardiovascular risk factors were evaluated using repeated-measures regression. The RYGB and matched controls (N=1724 in each cohort) were followed for up to 12 years after surgery (overall median of 6.3 years). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a statistically significant reduction in incident major composite cardiovascular events ( P =0.017) and congestive heart failure (0.0077) for the RYGB cohort. Adjusted Cox regression models confirmed the reductions in severe composite cardiovascular events in the RYGB cohort (hazard ratio=0.58, 95% CI=0.42-0.82). Improvements of cardiovascular risk factors (eg, 10-year cardiovascular risk score, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, systolic blood pressure, and diabetes mellitus) were observed within the RYGB cohort after surgery. Gastric bypass is associated with a reduced risk of major cardiovascular events and the development of congestive heart failure. © 2017 The Authors and Geisinger Clinic. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Evolving strategies, opportunistic implementation: HIV risk reduction in Tanzania in the context of an incentive-based HIV prevention intervention.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Packel

Full Text Available Behavior change communication (BCC interventions, while still a necessary component of HIV prevention, have not on their own been shown to be sufficient to stem the tide of the epidemic. The shortcomings of BCC interventions are partly due to barriers arising from structural or economic constraints. Arguments are being made for combination prevention packages that include behavior change, biomedical, and structural interventions to address the complex set of risk factors that may lead to HIV infection.In 2009/2010 we conducted 216 in-depth interviews with a subset of study participants enrolled in the RESPECT study - an HIV prevention trial in Tanzania that used cash awards to incentivize safer sexual behaviors. We analyzed community diaries to understand how the study was perceived in the community. We drew on these data to enhance our understanding of how the intervention influenced strategies for risk reduction.We found that certain situations provide increased leverage for sexual negotiation, and these situations facilitated opportunistic implementation of risk reduction strategies. Opportunities enabled by the RESPECT intervention included leveraging conditional cash awards, but participants also emphasized the importance of exploiting new health status knowledge from regular STI testing. Risk reduction strategies included condom use within partnerships and/or with other partners, and an unexpected emphasis on temporary abstinence.Our results highlight the importance of increasing opportunities for implementing risk reduction strategies. We found that an incentive-based intervention could be effective in part by creating such opportunities, particularly among groups such as women with limited sexual agency. The results provide new evidence that expanding regular testing of STIs is another important mechanism for providing opportunities for negotiating behavior change, beyond the direct benefits of testing. Exploiting the latent demand for

Cost and risk reduction using upfront licensing in Canada. Annex 15

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Snell, V.G.

2002-01-01

The paper summarizes the use of 'up-front' licensing in Canada - how licensing requirements are defined, and met - in advance of a project commitment. The approach to licensing in Canada has allowed flexibility in development of new designs. Since licensing was originally risk-based, and current regulatory policy allows cost-benefit considerations as part of the decision making, risk can be and should be used in novel circumstances as a licensing tool. Since the licensing framework is non-prescriptive, innovative approaches to design can be introduced and dispositioned without changing the legal structure. This flexibility has been used in several up-front licensing reviews: a small urban heating reactor, repeat CANDU 6 generating station units, and the single unit CANDU 9 generating station. In the future we expect to apply it to advanced designs, as an essential part of risk reduction and customer confidence in the product. The important lessons learned in Canada include: Up-front licensing is essential to reduce the risk of licensing-related delays once a project has been committed. It requires a significant investment in time and effort from both the designer and the regulator; The most effective scope for up-front licensing is for the regulator to thoroughly assess novel concepts, test the design against changed domestic requirements, and follow-up on known difficult areas; and for the designer to ensure foreign requirements are incorporated. There is little benefit in certifying the design in detail; Although it would be satisfying to have legally-binding certification, in the end there can be no legal obligation on the regulator, and agreement is pursued on the basis of good faith that the regulator will not make arbitrary decisions and that the designer will meet agreed targets or requirements; In almost all circumstances, issues will arise that are beyond the current 'rules', however expressed. Rather than rushing to create new rules, one reaches a

Intent to quit, quit attempts, and perceived health risk reduction among African American, Latino, and White nondaily and daily smokers in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Scheuermann, Taneisha S; Nollen, Nicole L; Luo, Xianghua; Cox, Lisa Sanderson; Ahluwalia, Jasjit S

2017-10-16

Ethnic and racial differences in smoking patterns and behaviors have been well documented and most African American and Latino smokers are nondaily or light smokers. However, differences within smoking levels are understudied. Our primary aim was to determine whether there are racial and ethnic differences among African American, Latino, and White nondaily, light daily, and moderate to heavy daily smokers on (1) perceived health risk reduction, (2) intentions to quit, and (3) past year quit attempts. Smokers were recruited through an online research panel for a cross-sectional survey (n = 2376). Sampling quotas were used to obtain equal numbers of African American, Latino, and White nondaily and daily smokers. African American (59.6%) and Latino (54%) nondaily smokers were more likely than White nondaily smokers (45%) to currently limit their cigarettes per day (cpd) as a perceived health risk reduction strategy (p smokers were more likely than Latino and White nondaily smokers (p smokers (15%) were more likely than either Latinos (7.8%) or Whites (8.5%) to intend to quit in the next 30 days (p smokers were more likely than Whites (49%) to have made a quit attempt in the past year (p smokers. Racial and ethnic group differences were more pronounced among nondaily smokers compared to light daily smoker and moderate to heavy daily smokers. Smoking level is an important consideration in understanding racial and ethnic variation in perceived health risk reduction and cessation-related behaviors.

Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brower, M.C.; Bell, K.; Spinney, P. [and others

1997-05-01

The question of uncertainty and risk in electric utility resource planning has received considerable attention in recent years. During the 1980s, many utilities suffered financial losses because of unexpectedly high plant construction costs and low growth in electricity demand. In addition, the introduction of competition to the electric industry is creating new risks for power companies. No longer will utilities be able to count on regulatory protections and a base of captive consumers to provide a stable market and adequate return on their investments. Alternative risk management strategies will have to be considered instead. One approach to managing risk is for a utility company to invest in diverse power sources such as wind power plants. Since wind plants consume no fuel, can be built in relatively small increments with short construction lead times, and generate no pollutants, it is often said that they offer significant protection from risks associated with conventional fossil-fuel power plants. So far there have been few efforts to quantify these benefits, however. The study compares the costs and risks of two competing resource options, a gas-fired combined cycle plant and a wind plant, both utility-owned, through decision analysis. The case study utility is Texas Utilities Electric, a very large investor-owned company serving an area with substantial, high-quality wind resources. The authors chose a specific moment in the future - the year 2003 - when the utility currently plans to build a large fossil-fueled power plant, and examined the implications for the utility`s expected revenues, costs, and profits if a wind plant were to be built instead.

Effect of Using Different Vehicle Weight Groups on the Estimated Relationship Between Mass Reduction and U.S. Societal Fatality Risk per Vehicle Miles of Travel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wenzel, Tom P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Technologies Area. Building Technology and Urban Systems Division

2016-08-22

This report recalculates the estimated relationship between vehicle mass and societal fatality risk, using alternative groupings by vehicle weight, to test whether the trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction as case vehicle mass increases, holds over smaller increments of the range in case vehicle masses. The NHTSA baseline regression model estimates the relationship using for two weight groups for cars and light trucks; we re-estimated the mass reduction coefficients using four, six, and eight bins of vehicle mass. The estimated effect of mass reduction on societal fatality risk was not consistent over the range in vehicle masses in these weight bins. These results suggest that the relationship indicated by the NHTSA baseline model is a result of other, unmeasured attributes of the mix of vehicles in the lighter vs. heavier weight bins, and not necessarily the result of a correlation between mass reduction and societal fatality risk. An analysis of the average vehicle, driver, and crash characteristics across the various weight groupings did not reveal any strong trends that might explain the lack of a consistent trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction in heavier vehicles.

Pathogen reduction requirements for direct potable reuse in Antarctica: evaluating human health risks in small communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Barker, S Fiona; Packer, Michael; Scales, Peter J; Gray, Stephen; Snape, Ian; Hamilton, Andrew J

2013-09-01

Small, remote communities often have limited access to energy and water. Direct potable reuse of treated wastewater has recently gained attention as a potential solution for water-stressed regions, but requires further evaluation specific to small communities. The required pathogen reduction needed for safe implementation of direct potable reuse of treated sewage is an important consideration but these are typically quantified for larger communities and cities. A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was conducted, using norovirus, giardia and Campylobacter as reference pathogens, to determine the level of treatment required to meet the tolerable annual disease burden of 10(-6) DALYs per person per year, using Davis Station in Antarctica as an example of a small remote community. Two scenarios were compared: published municipal sewage pathogen loads and estimated pathogen loads during a gastroenteritis outbreak. For the municipal sewage scenario, estimated required log10 reductions were 6.9, 8.0 and 7.4 for norovirus, giardia and Campylobacter respectively, while for the outbreak scenario the values were 12.1, 10.4 and 12.3 (95th percentiles). Pathogen concentrations are higher under outbreak conditions as a function of the relatively greater degree of contact between community members in a small population, compared with interactions in a large city, resulting in a higher proportion of the population being at risk of infection and illness. While the estimates of outbreak conditions may overestimate sewage concentration to some degree, the results suggest that additional treatment barriers would be required to achieve regulatory compliance for safe drinking water in small communities. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Correlates of HIV Risk Reduction Self-Efficacy among Youth in South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julia Louw

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Even though a decline in HIV prevalence has been reported among South African youth 15–24 from 10.3% in 2005 to 8.6% in 2008, the prevalence remains disproportionately high for females overall in comparison to males. This study examines factors associated by HIV risk reduction self-efficacy of South African youth as part of an evaluation of the impact of loveLife, a youth focused HIV prevention programme. A cross-sectional population-based household survey was conducted with persons of ages 18 to 24 years in four selected provinces in South Africa. Among female respondents (, factors associated with high self-efficacy in the adjusted model were having a low HIV risk perception, HIV/AIDS stigma, ever using drugs, and having life goals. Male respondents ( with high self-efficacy were more likely to have been tested for HIV, have concurrent sexual partners, have had a transactional sex partner in lifetime, a low HIV risk perception, difficulty in having condoms, agreed with coercive sex, high relationship control, and had loveLife face-to-face programme participation. The factors identified with high self-efficacy and HIV-sexual risk behaviour may be considered to strengthen youth HIV prevention programmes in South Africa.

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Trine Madsen

2017-03-01

Full Text Available People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

Analysis of risk-reduction measures for multiunit essential service water systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohut, P.; Musicki, Z.; Fitzpatrick, R.

1989-01-01

Many risk analyses have indicated the potentially significant contribution to core damage frequency (CDF) due to the loss of the essential service water (ESW) function. The ESW system serves as the ultimate heat sink, and its failure can affect numerous safety components and systems, although it does not directly perform a frontline safety function. As such, probabilistic risk assessment studies usually analyze its failures through support system modeling; however, the direct loss of the ESW as an initiator may or may not be explicitly treated. In addition, the actual analysis is made more complex due to the linked initiating event nature of these events, since the system fault trees are coupled to the initiator in these cases. Previously, a specific safety issue was identified concerning the increase in core-melt vulnerability caused by the failure of the ESW system in pressurized water reactor (PWR) multiplant units that have only two service water (SW) pumps per unit with a backup crosstie capability to the other unit. The main objective of the present study was to establish a realistic measure of the core damage vulnerability, to identify potential improvements for the ESW systems, and to obtain generic estimates of their risk-reduction potential and cost-effectiveness

Environments, risk and health harms: a qualitative investigation into the illicit use of anabolic steroids among people using harm reduction services in the UK.

Science.gov (United States)

Kimergård, Andreas; McVeigh, Jim

2014-06-04

The illicit use of anabolic steroids among the gym population continues to rise, along with the number of steroid using clients attending harm reduction services in the UK. This presents serious challenges to public health. Study objectives were to account for the experiences of anabolic steroid users and investigate how 'risk environments' produce harm. Qualitative face-to-face interviews with 24 users of anabolic steroids engaged with harm reduction services in the UK. Body satisfaction was an important factor when deciding to start the use of anabolic steroids. Many users were unaware of the potential dangers of using drugs from the illicit market, whereas some had adopted a range of strategies to negotiate the hazards relating to the use of adulterated products, including self-experimentation to gauge the perceived efficacy and unwanted effects of these drugs. Viewpoints, first-hand anecdotes, norms and practices among groups of steroid users created boundaries of 'sensible' drug use, but also promoted practices that may increase the chance of harms occurring. Established users encouraged young users to go to harm reduction services but, at the same time, promoted risky injecting practices in the belief that this would enhance the efficacy of anabolic steroids. Current steroid-related viewpoints and practices contribute to the risk environment surrounding the use of these drugs and may undermine the goal of current public health strategies including harm reduction interventions. The level of harms among anabolic steroid users are determined by multiple and intertwining factors, in addition to the harms caused by the pharmacological action or injury and illness associated with incorrect injecting techniques. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Health and environmental risk-related impacts of actinide burning on high-level waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forsberg, C.W.

1992-05-01

The potential health and environmental risk-related impacts of actinide burning for high-level waste disposal were evaluated. Actinide burning, also called waste partitioning-transmutation, is an advanced method for radioactive waste management based on the idea of destroying the most toxic components in the waste. It consists of two steps: (1) selective removal of the most toxic radionuclides from high-level/spent fuel waste and (2) conversion of those radionuclides into less toxic radioactive materials and/or stable elements. Risk, as used in this report, is defined as the probability of a failure times its consequence. Actinide burning has two potential health and environmental impacts on waste management. Risks and the magnitude of high-consequence repository failure scenarios are decreased by inventory reduction of the long-term radioactivity in the repository. (What does not exist cannot create risk or uncertainty.) Risk may also be reduced by the changes in the waste characteristics, resulting from selection of waste forms after processing, that are superior to spent fuel and which lower the potential of transport of radionuclides from waste form to accessible environment. There are no negative health or environmental impacts to the repository from actinide burning; however, there may be such impacts elsewhere in the fuel cycle

Incidence and risk factors for surgical site infection after open reduction and internal fixation of tibial plateau fracture: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Shao, Jiashen; Chang, Hengrui; Zhu, Yanbin; Chen, Wei; Zheng, Zhanle; Zhang, Huixin; Zhang, Yingze

2017-05-01

This study aimed to quantitatively summarize the risk factors associated with surgical site infection after open reduction and internal fixation of tibial plateau fracture. Medline, Embase, CNKI, Wanfang database and Cochrane central database were searched for relevant original studies from database inception to October 2016. Eligible studies had to meet quality assessment criteria according to the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale, and had to evaluate the risk factors for surgical site infection after open reduction and internal fixation of tibial plateau fracture. Stata 11.0 software was used for this meta-analysis. Eight studies involving 2214 cases of tibial plateau fracture treated by open reduction and internal fixation and 219 cases of surgical site infection were included in this meta-analysis. The following parameters were identified as significant risk factors for surgical site infection after open reduction and internal fixation of tibial plateau fracture (p operative time (OR 2.15; 95% CI 1.53-3.02), tobacco use (OR 2.13; 95% CI 1.13-3.99), and external fixation (OR 2.07; 95% CI 1.05-4.09). Other factors, including male sex, were not identified as risk factors for surgical site infection. Patients with the abovementioned medical conditions are at risk of surgical site infection after open reduction and internal fixation of tibial plateau fracture. Surgeons should be cognizant of these risks and give relevant preoperative advice. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Age-related reduction of adaptive brain response during semantic integration is associated with gray matter reduction

OpenAIRE

Zhu, Zude; Yang, Fengjun; Li, Dongning; Zhou, Lianjun; Liu, Ying; Zhang, Ying; Chen, Xuezhi

2017-01-01

While aging is associated with increased knowledge, it is also associated with decreased semantic integration. To investigate brain activation changes during semantic integration, a sample of forty-eight 25-75 year-old adults read sentences with high cloze (HC) and low cloze (LC) probability while functional magnetic resonance imaging was conducted. Significant age-related reduction of cloze effect (LC vs. HC) was found in several regions, especially the left middle frontal gyrus (MFG) and ri...

Deficiencies in public understanding about tobacco harm reduction: results from a United States national survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Kiviniemi, Marc T; Kozlowski, Lynn T

2015-07-02

Tobacco products differ in their relative health harms. The need for educating consumers about such harms is growing as different tobacco products enter the marketplace and as the FDA moves to regulate and educate the public about different products. However, little is known about the patterns of the public's knowledge of relative harms. Data were analyzed from the Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS) 4 Cycle 2, a population-representative survey of US adults conducted between October 2012 and January 2013 (N = 3630). Participants reported their perceptions of the relative risks of e-cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, and different types of cigarettes compared to "traditional" cigarettes. Relative risk perceptions for each product type, as well as the consistency and accuracy of harm reduction beliefs, were analyzed. About 65% of the respondents accurately reported that no cigarettes were less harmful than any others. Slightly more than half of U.S. adults perceived e-cigarettes to be safer than regular cigarettes, a belief in line with current scientific evidence. By contrast, only 9% of respondents perceived some smokeless tobacco products to be safer, a belief strongly supported by the evidence. Only 3.5% of respondents had patterns of relative risk perceptions in line with current scientific evidence for all three modalities. The discrepancy between current evidence and public perceptions of relative risk of various tobacco/nicotine products was marked; for most tobacco types, a large proportion of the population held inaccurate harm reduction beliefs. Although there was substantial awareness that no cigarettes were safer than any other cigarettes, there could be benefits from increasing the percentage of the public that appreciates this fact, especially among current smokers. Given the potential benefits of tobacco risk reduction strategies, public health education efforts to increase understanding of basic harm reduction principles are needed to

Deconstructing anti-harm-reduction metaphors; mortality risk from falls and other traumatic injuries compared to smokeless tobacco use

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bergen Paul

2006-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Anti-harm-reduction advocates sometimes resort to pseudo-analogies to ridicule harm reduction. Those opposed to the use of smokeless tobacco as an alternative to smoking sometimes suggest that the substitution would be like jumping from a 3 story building rather than 10 story, or like shooting yourself in the foot rather than the head. These metaphors are grossly inappropriate for several reasons, notably including the fact that they are misleading about the actual risk levels. Based on the available literature on mortality from falls, we estimate that smoking presents a mortality risk similar to a fall of about 4 stories, while mortality risk from smokeless tobacco is no worse than that from an almost certainly non-fatal fall from less than 2 stories. Other metaphors are similarly misleading. These metaphors, like other false and misleading anti-harm-reduction statements are inherently unethical attempts to prevent people from learning accurate health information. Moreover, they implicitly provide bad advice about health behavior priorities and are intended to persuade people to stick with a behavior that is more dangerous than an available alternative. Finally, the metaphors exhibit a flippant tone that seems inappropriate for a serious discussion of health science.

Building Capacity for Disaster Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

McAdoo, B. G.; Bryner, V.

2013-05-01

Disaster risk is acutely high in many emerging economies due to a combination of geophysical hazards and social and ecological vulnerabilities. The risk associated with natural hazards can be a critical component of a nation's wealth, hence knowledge of these hazards will affect foreign investment in these emergent economies. On the hazard side of the risk profile, geophysicists research the frequency and magnitude of the extant hazards. These geophysicists, both local and foreign, have a responsibility to communicate these risks in the public sphere - whether they are through the mass media, or in personal conversations. Because of this implicit responsibility, it is incumbent upon geophysicists to understand the overall risk, not just the hazards. When it comes to communicating these risks, local scientists are often more effective because they speak the language, understand the social context, and are often connected to various modes of communication unavailable to foreign researchers. Investment in multidisciplinary undergraduate education is critical, as is training of established local scientists in understanding the complexities of risk assessment as well as communicating these risks effectively to broad audiences. Onagawa, Japan. 2011.

Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Connell, Paul P; Keane, Pearse A; O'Neill, Evelyn C; Altaie, Rasha W; Loane, Edward; Neelam, Kumari; Nolan, John M; Beatty, Stephen

2009-01-01

Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

Risk Factors for Age-Related Maculopathy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul P. Connell

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Age-related maculopathy (ARM is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Connell, Paul P

2012-02-01

Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715\\/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

Improving health-related quality of life through an evidence-based obesity reduction program: the Healthy Weights Initiative

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lemstra ME

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Mark E Lemstra,1 Marla R Rogers,21Alliance Health, Moose Jaw, 2Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, College of Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada Abstract: When evaluating any health intervention, it is critical to include the impact of the intervention on health-related quality of life (HRQL. Among those who are obese, HRQL is often lower than the general population and even more when considering obesity-related comorbidities and bodily pain. The objectives of this paper were to determine the impact of a multidisciplinary, community-based obesity reduction program on HRQL and to determine the independent risk factors for lack of improvement from baseline to follow-up. HRQL was measured using the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36 at baseline and follow-up (24 weeks. To date, 84.5% of those who completed the program had improvements in their overall SF-36 score. Significant increases in the mean scores on eight dimensions of health were also observed. Lack of improvement was independently affected by smoking status (odds ratio 3.75; 95% confidence interval 1.44–9.78; P=0.007 and not having a buddy to attend the program (odds ratio 3.70; 95% confidence interval 1.28–10.68; P=0.015. Obesity reduction programs that target increasing exercise, improving diet, and cognitive behavioral therapy can positively impact HRQL in obese adults. Social support has a strong role to play in improving outcomes. Keywords: obesity, health-related quality of life, social- support, SF-36, Canada

Behavioral Couples Treatment for Substance Use Disorder: Secondary Effects on the Reduction of Risk for Child Abuse.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelley, Michelle L; Bravo, Adrian J; Braitman, Abby L; Lawless, Adrienne K; Lawrence, Hannah R

2016-03-01

Risk for child abuse was examined prior to and after behavioral couples treatment (BCT) among 61 couples in which one or both parents were diagnosed with substance use disorder (SUD). All couples were residing with one or more school-age children. Mothers and fathers completed pretreatment, post-intervention, and 6-month post-intervention follow-up assessments. Results of piecewise latent growth models tested whether the number of BCT sessions attended and number of days abstinent from drugs and alcohol influenced relationship satisfaction and its growth over time, and in turn if relationship satisfaction and change in relationship satisfaction influenced risk for child abuse. For both mothers and fathers, attending more BCT sessions lead to a direct increase in relationship satisfaction, which in turn led to stronger reductions in risk for child abuse. This effect was maintained from the post-intervention through the 6-month post-intervention follow-up. For fathers, number of days abstinent significantly influenced reduction in child abuse potential at post-intervention via relationship satisfaction. This indirect effect was not present for mothers. The overall benefits of BCT on mothers' and fathers' risk for child abuse suggest that BCT may have promise in reducing risk for child abuse among couples in which one or both parents have SUD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The derivation and application of a risk related value for saving a statistical life

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jackson, D.; Stone, D.; Butler, G.G.; Mcglynn, G.

2004-01-01

A risk related value of spend for saving a statistical life (VSSSL) is proposed for cost-benefit studies across the power generation sector, and the nuclear industry in particular. An upper bound on VSSSL is set based on the UK government standard of around pound 1 M or, in particular circumstances, pound 2 M and the observation that excessive spend (probably of the order of more than pound 5 M per statistical life) will actually cost lives. Above a risk of 10 -3 a -1 it is assumed that VSSSL approaches maximum sustainable value around pound 2 M, whereas below a risk of 10 -9 a -1 the value of further risk reduction approaches zero. At risks around 10 -6 a -1 it is proposed that an appropriate VSSL lies in the range pound 0.25 M to pound 1 M. With respect to radiological protection, it is suggested that where collective doses are dominated by average individual doses no more than a few μSv, the detriment arising from a man-Sv can be valued at about pound 15 k to pound 60 k. It is further suggested that for individual dose contributions below 0.01 μSv (representing a risk equivalent to less than 10 -9 ) a low residual VSSSL should be applied in cost-benefit analyses based on collective dose exposures. (author)

A qualitative descriptive study of risk reduction for coronary disease among the Hong Kong Chinese.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Choi Wan; Lopez, Violeta

2014-01-01

Achieving optimal control and reduction in coronary heart disease (CHD) risks in Hong Kong (HK) remains significant and requires exploring. This article addresses the ability to reduce CHD risks among the HK Chinese. Through secondary analysis, a qualitative descriptive design using focus group interviews and content analysis were adopted. Older and younger adults were invited for the study. An interview schedule was used to guide discussions during focus group interviews. Four categories emerged from the data: planning of health actions, control of risk-reducing behavior, perceived opportunities for understanding CHD, and chest pain appraisal. Local culture and population needs play a central role in disease perception and prevention. The findings are essential to target strategies for initiating health acts for younger adults and establish public education resources that underscore understanding of CHD risk, symptom recognition, and disease management, particularly among those middle-aged and older people at high risk and with the diseased populations. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Workshop: Economic Valuation of Mortality Risk Reduction: Assessing the State of the Art for Policy Applications (2002)

Science.gov (United States)

This two-day workshop, co-sponsored by EPA's National Center for Environmental Economics and National Center for Environmental Research, was dedicated to exploring methods for valuing mortality risk reductions. There were six sessions held in total.

Mediators of the Relation Between Community Violence and Sexual Risk Behavior Among Adults Attending a Public Sexually Transmitted Infection Clinic.

Science.gov (United States)

Senn, Theresa E; Walsh, Jennifer L; Carey, Michael P

2016-07-01

Prior research shows that violence is associated with sexual risk behavior, but little is known about the relation between community violence (i.e., violence that is witnessed or experienced in one's neighborhood) and sexual risk behavior. To better understand contextual influences on HIV risk behavior, we asked 508 adult patients attending a publicly funded STI clinic in the U.S. (54 % male, M age = 27.93, 68 % African American) who were participating in a larger trial to complete a survey assessing exposure to community violence, sexual risk behavior, and potential mediators of the community violence-sexual risk behavior relation (i.e., mental health, substance use, and experiencing intimate partner violence). A separate sample of participants from the same trial completed measures of sexual behavior norms, which were aggregated to create measures of census tract sexual behavior norms. Data analyses controlling for socioeconomic status revealed that higher levels of community violence were associated with more sexual partners for men and with more episodes of unprotected sex with non-steady partners for women. For both men and women, substance use and mental health mediated the community violence-sexual risk behavior relation; in addition, for men only, experiencing intimate partner violence also mediated this relation. These results confirm that, for individuals living in communities with high levels of violence, sexual risk reduction interventions need to address intimate partner violence, substance use, and mental health to be optimally effective.

Reduction of Risk Factors in Patients with Behavioral Dysphonia After Vocal Group Therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Wégina Jordâna Nascimento da; Lopes, Leonardo Wanderley; Macedo, Anny Elizabety Ramalho de; Costa, Denise Batista da; Almeida, Anna Alice Figueiredo de

2017-01-01

The origin and development of dysphonia, particularly behavioral dysphonia, is associated with several risk factors. Here, we verified the effectiveness of group therapy in reducing the risk factors, and established the association between risk factors and sex, age, profession, and diagnosis of laryngeal disorders in patients with behavioral dysphonia. This is a descriptive, quantitative, field intervention study. Participants (n = 26, adult patients of both sexes), with a diagnosis of behavioral dysphonia, received group therapy intervention. Data for risk factors were collected pre- and posttherapy using the Vocal Screening Protocol. The data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics (Student t test, chi-squared test or Spearman correlation test). The majority (80.8%, n = 21) of patients were female, 65.4% (n = 17) were not in a vocal profession, and 42.3% (n = 11) presented with a lesion in the membranous portion of the vocal fold. The number of personal risk factors decreased after group therapy (P = 0.04). In addition, age was correlated with total (P = 0.001), environmental (P = 0.002), and personal (P = 0.003) vocal risk factors posttherapy. This study revealed an association between the reduction of personal risk factors and vocal group therapy, and a correlation between age and total, environmental, and personal vocal risk factors posttherapy. Thus, maintenance and origins of the behaviors that modify the behavioral aspects of the participants directly influence the production of individual vocal habits. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On-ground casualty risk reduction by structural design for demise

Science.gov (United States)

Lemmens, Stijn; Funke, Quirin; Krag, Holger

2015-06-01

In recent years, awareness concerning the on-ground risk posed by un-controlled re-entering space systems has increased. On average over the past decade, an object with mass above 800 kg re-enters every week from which only a few, e.g. ESA's GOCE in 2013 and NASA's UARS in 2011, appeared prominent in international media. Space agencies and nations have discussed requirements to limit the on-ground risk for future missions. To meet the requirements, the amount of debris falling back on Earth has to be limited in number, mass and size. Design for demise (D4D) refers to all measures taken in the design of a space object to increase the potential for demise of the object and its components during re-entry. SCARAB (Spacecraft Atmospheric Re-entry and Break-Up) is ESA's high-fidelity tool which analyses the thermal and structural effects of atmospheric re-entry on spacecraft with a finite-element approach. For this study, a model of a representative satellite is developed in SCARAB to serve as test-bed for D4D analyses on a structural level. The model is used as starting point for different D4D approaches based on increasing the exposure of the satellite components to the aero-thermal environment, as a way to speed up the demise. Statistical bootstrapping is applied to the resulting on-ground fragment lists in order to compare the different re-entry scenarios and to determine the uncertainties of the results. Moreover, the bootstrap results can be used to analyse the casualty risk estimator from a theoretical point of view. The risk reductions for the analysed D4D techniques are presented with respect to the reference scenario for the modelled representative satellite.