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Sample records for relative risk based

  1. A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

    2015-01-01

    A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

  2. Some computer simulations based on the linear relative risk model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1991-10-01

    This report presents the results of computer simulations designed to evaluate and compare the performance of the likelihood ratio statistic and the score statistic for making inferences about the linear relative risk mode. The work was motivated by data on workers exposed to low doses of radiation, and the report includes illustration of several procedures for obtaining confidence limits for the excess relative risk coefficient based on data from three studies of nuclear workers. The computer simulations indicate that with small sample sizes and highly skewed dose distributions, asymptotic approximations to the score statistic or to the likelihood ratio statistic may not be adequate. For testing the null hypothesis that the excess relative risk is equal to zero, the asymptotic approximation to the likelihood ratio statistic was adequate, but use of the asymptotic approximation to the score statistic rejected the null hypothesis too often. Frequently the likelihood was maximized at the lower constraint, and when this occurred, the asymptotic approximations for the likelihood ratio and score statistics did not perform well in obtaining upper confidence limits. The score statistic and likelihood ratio statistics were found to perform comparably in terms of power and width of the confidence limits. It is recommended that with modest sample sizes, confidence limits be obtained using computer simulations based on the score statistic. Although nuclear worker studies are emphasized in this report, its results are relevant for any study investigating linear dose-response functions with highly skewed exposure distributions. 22 refs., 14 tabs

  3. Assessment of credit risk based on fuzzy relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsabadze, Teimuraz

    2017-06-01

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach for an assessment of the credit risk to corporate borrowers. There are different models for borrowers' risk assessment. These models are divided into two groups: statistical and theoretical. When assessing the credit risk for corporate borrowers, statistical model is unacceptable due to the lack of sufficiently large history of defaults. At the same time, we cannot use some theoretical models due to the lack of stock exchange. In those cases, when studying a particular borrower given that statistical base does not exist, the decision-making process is always of expert nature. The paper describes a new approach that may be used in group decision-making. An example of the application of the proposed approach is given.

  4. Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food related hazards, based on risks for human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, E. D.; Raley, M.

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science......, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered - based on their characteristics - into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years, multi......-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking...

  5. Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Ping

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The extent to which the high suicide rate in urban areas is influenced by exposures to risk factors for suicide other than urbanicity remains unknown. This population-based study aims to investigate suicide risk in relation to the level of urbanicity in the context of other factors...

  6. Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

    2012-01-01

    In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

  7. Relative Risks for Lethal Prostate Cancer Based on Complete Family History of Prostate Cancer Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albright, Frederick S; Stephenson, Robert A; Agarwal, Neeraj; Cannon-Albright, Lisa A

    2017-01-01

    There are few published familial relative risks (RR) for lethal prostate cancer. This study estimates RRs for lethal prostate cancer based on comprehensive family history data, with the goal of improving identification of those men at highest risk of dying from prostate cancer. We used a population-based genealogical resource linked to a statewide electronic SEER cancer registry and death certificates to estimate relative risks (RR) for death from prostate cancer based upon family history. Over 600,000 male probands were analyzed, representing a variety of family history constellations of lethal prostate cancer. RR estimates were based on the ratio of the observed to the expected number of lethal prostate cancer cases using internal rates. RRs for lethal prostate cancer based on the number of affected first-degree relatives (FDR) ranged from 2.49 (95% CI: 2.27, 2.73) for exactly 1 FDR to 5.30 (2.13, 10.93) for ≥3 affected FDRs. In an absence of affected FDRs, increased risk was also significant for increasing numbers of affected second-degree or third degree relatives. Equivalent risks were observed for similar maternal and paternal family history. This study provides population-based estimates of lethal prostate cancer risk based on lethal prostate cancer family history. Many family history constellations associated with two to greater than five times increased risk for lethal prostate cancer were identified. These lethal prostate cancer risk estimates hold potential for use in identification, screening, early diagnosis, and treatment of men at high risk for death from prostate cancer. Prostate77:41-48, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Patient clusters in acute, work-related back pain based on patterns of disability risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, William S; Pransky, Glenn; Patterson, William; Linton, Steven J; Winters, Thomas

    2007-02-01

    To identify subgroups of patients with work-related back pain based on disability risk factors. Patients with work-related back pain (N = 528) completed a 16-item questionnaire of potential disability risk factors before their initial medical evaluation. Outcomes of pain, functional limitation, and work disability were assessed 1 and 3 months later. A K-Means cluster analysis of 5 disability risk factors (pain, depressed mood, fear avoidant beliefs, work inflexibility, and poor expectations for recovery) resulted in 4 sub-groups: low risk (n = 182); emotional distress (n = 103); severe pain/fear avoidant (n = 102); and concerns about job accommodation (n = 141). Pain and disability outcomes at follow-up were superior in the low-risk group and poorest in the severe pain/fear avoidant group. Patients with acute back pain can be discriminated into subgroups depending on whether disability is related to pain beliefs, emotional distress, or workplace concerns.

  9. Formal safety assessment based on relative risks model in ship navigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu Shenping [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: sphu@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Fang Quangen [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: qgfang@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Xia Haibo [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: hbxia@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Xi Yongtao [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: xiyt@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn

    2007-03-15

    Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology aiming at enhancing maritime safety. It has been gradually and broadly used in the shipping industry nowadays around the world. On the basis of analysis and conclusion of FSA approach, this paper discusses quantitative risk assessment and generic risk model in FSA, especially frequency and severity criteria in ship navigation. Then it puts forward a new model based on relative risk assessment (MRRA). The model presents a risk-assessment approach based on fuzzy functions and takes five factors into account, including detailed information about accident characteristics. It has already been used for the assessment of pilotage safety in Shanghai harbor, China. Consequently, it can be proved that MRRA is a useful method to solve the problems in the risk assessment of ship navigation safety in practice.

  10. Formal safety assessment based on relative risks model in ship navigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Shenping; Fang Quangen; Xia Haibo; Xi Yongtao

    2007-01-01

    Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology aiming at enhancing maritime safety. It has been gradually and broadly used in the shipping industry nowadays around the world. On the basis of analysis and conclusion of FSA approach, this paper discusses quantitative risk assessment and generic risk model in FSA, especially frequency and severity criteria in ship navigation. Then it puts forward a new model based on relative risk assessment (MRRA). The model presents a risk-assessment approach based on fuzzy functions and takes five factors into account, including detailed information about accident characteristics. It has already been used for the assessment of pilotage safety in Shanghai harbor, China. Consequently, it can be proved that MRRA is a useful method to solve the problems in the risk assessment of ship navigation safety in practice

  11. Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Ping

    2005-01-01

    from various Danish longitudinal registers. Data were analysed with conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: This study confirms that people living in more urbanized areas are at a higher risk of suicide than their counterparts in less urbanized areas. However, this excess risk is largely eliminated...... when adjusted for personal marital, income, and ethnic differences; it is even reversed when further adjusted for psychiatric status. Moreover, the impact of urbanicity on suicide risk differs significantly by sex and across age. Urban living reduces suicide risk significantly among men, especially......BACKGROUND: The extent to which the high suicide rate in urban areas is influenced by exposures to risk factors for suicide other than urbanicity remains unknown. This population-based study aims to investigate suicide risk in relation to the level of urbanicity in the context of other factors...

  12. Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Van Asselt, E D; Raley, M; Poulsen, M; Korsgaard, H; Bredsdorff, L; Nauta, M; D'agostino, M; Coles, D; Marvin, H J P; Frewer, L J

    2018-01-22

    This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.

  13. Determinants and stability over time of perception of health risks related to mobile phone base stations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kowall, Bernd; Breckenkamp, Jürgen; Blettner, Maria

    2012-01-01

    about other environmental and health risks, is associated with psychological strain, and is stable on the individual level over time. METHODS: Self-administered questionnaires filled in by 3,253 persons aged 15-69 years in 2004 and 2006 in Germany. RESULTS: Risk perception of MPBS was strongly......OBJECTIVE: Perception of possible health risks related to mobile phone base stations (MPBS) is an important factor in citizens' opposition against MPBS and is associated with health complaints. The aim of the present study is to assess whether risk perception of MPBS is associated with concerns...... in 2004 expressed these concerns again 2 years later, the corresponding figure for attribution of health complaints to MPBS was 31.3%. CONCLUSION: Risk perception of MPBS is strongly associated with general concern, anxiety, depression, and stress, and rather instable over time....

  14. Task-based measures of image quality and their relation to radiation dose and patient risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrett, Harrison H; Kupinski, Matthew A; Myers, Kyle J; Hoeschen, Christoph; Little, Mark P

    2015-01-01

    The theory of task-based assessment of image quality is reviewed in the context of imaging with ionizing radiation, and objective figures of merit (FOMs) for image quality are summarized. The variation of the FOMs with the task, the observer and especially with the mean number of photons recorded in the image is discussed. Then various standard methods for specifying radiation dose are reviewed and related to the mean number of photons in the image and hence to image quality. Current knowledge of the relation between local radiation dose and the risk of various adverse effects is summarized, and some graphical depictions of the tradeoffs between image quality and risk are introduced. Then various dose-reduction strategies are discussed in terms of their effect on task-based measures of image quality. (topical review)

  15. Decreasing Relative Risk Premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    relative risk premium in the small implies decreasing relative risk premium in the large, and decreasing relative risk premium everywhere implies risk aversion. We finally show that preferences with decreasing relative risk premium may be equivalently expressed in terms of certain preferences on risky......We consider the risk premium demanded by a decision maker with wealth x in order to be indifferent between obtaining a new level of wealth y1 with certainty, or to participate in a lottery which either results in unchanged present wealth or a level of wealth y2 > y1. We define the relative risk...... premium as the quotient between the risk premium and the increase in wealth y1–x which the decision maker puts on the line by choosing the lottery in place of receiving y1 with certainty. We study preferences such that the relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine...

  16. Relative risk estimation of Chikungunya disease in Malaysia: An analysis based on Poisson-gamma model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samat, N. A.; Ma'arof, S. H. Mohd Imam

    2015-05-01

    Disease mapping is a method to display the geographical distribution of disease occurrence, which generally involves the usage and interpretation of a map to show the incidence of certain diseases. Relative risk (RR) estimation is one of the most important issues in disease mapping. This paper begins by providing a brief overview of Chikungunya disease. This is followed by a review of the classical model used in disease mapping, based on the standardized morbidity ratio (SMR), which we then apply to our Chikungunya data. We then fit an extension of the classical model, which we refer to as a Poisson-Gamma model, when prior distributions for the relative risks are assumed known. Both results are displayed and compared using maps and we reveal a smoother map with fewer extremes values of estimated relative risk. The extensions of this paper will consider other methods that are relevant to overcome the drawbacks of the existing methods, in order to inform and direct government strategy for monitoring and controlling Chikungunya disease.

  17. Risk-based evaluation tool for safety-related maintenance involving scaffolding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevens, C.; Azizi, M.; Massman, M.

    1988-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has expressed a general concern that transient materials in and around safety systems at nuclear power plants represent a seismic safety hazard to the plant, in particular, the uncontrolled use of scaffolding during maintenance activities. Currently, most plants perform a seismic safety analysis for all uses of scaffolding near safety-related equipment to determine appropriate tie-down locations, scaffolding reinforcements, etc. This is both time-consuming and, for the most part, unnecessary. A workable engineering solution based on risk analysis techniques has been developed and is being used at the Palo Verde nuclear generating station (PVNGS)

  18. Socioeconomic status in relation to Parkinson's disease risk and mortality: A population-based prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Fei; Johansson, Anna L V; Pedersen, Nancy L; Fang, Fang; Gatz, Margaret; Wirdefeldt, Karin

    2016-07-01

    Little is known about the role of socioeconomic status in relation to Parkinson's disease (PD) risk, and no study has investigated whether the impact of socioeconomic status on all-cause mortality differs between individuals with and without PD.In this population-based prospective study, over 4.6 million Swedish inhabitants who participated in the Swedish census in 1980 were followed from 1981 to 2010. The incidence rate of PD and incidence rate ratio were estimated for the association between socioeconomic status and PD risk. Age-standardized mortality rate and hazard ratio (HR) were estimated for the association between socioeconomic status and all-cause mortality for individuals with and without PD.During follow-up, 66,332 incident PD cases at a mean age of 76.0 years were recorded. Compared to individuals with the highest socioeconomic status (high nonmanual workers), all other socioeconomic groups (manual or nonmanual and self-employed workers) had a lower PD risk. All-cause mortality rates were higher in individuals with lower socioeconomic status compared with high nonmanual workers, but relative risks for all-cause mortality were lower in PD patients than in non-PD individuals (e.g., for low manual workers, HR: 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09-1.15 for PD patients; HR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.35-1.36 for non-PD individuals).Individuals with lower socioeconomic status had a lower PD incidence compared to the highest socioeconomic group. Lower socioeconomic status was associated with higher all-cause mortality among individuals with and without PD, but such impact was weaker among PD patients.

  19. Suicide risk in relation to psychiatric hospitalization: evidence based on longitudinal registers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Ping; Nordentoft, Merete

    2005-01-01

    history increases suicide risk relatively more in women than in men; and suicide risk is substantial for substance disorders and for multiple admissions in women but not in men. CONCLUSIONS: Suicide risk peaks in periods immediately after admission and discharge. The risk is particularly high in persons...... with affective disorders and in persons with short hospital treatment. These findings should lead to systematic evaluation of suicide risk among inpatients before discharge and corresponding outpatient treatment, and family support should be initiated immediately after the discharge...

  20. Decreasing relative risk premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    2007-01-01

    such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...

  1. [The genotype-based haplotype relative risk and transmission disequilibrium test analyses of familial febrile convulsions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Y; Wu, X; Guo, Z; Zhang, J; Pan, H; Li, M; Bao, X; Peng, J; Zou, L; Lin, Q

    1999-10-01

    To confirm the linkage of familial febrile convulsions to the short arm of chromosome 6(6p) or the long arm of chromosome 8(8q). The authors finished genotyping of Pst I locus on the coding region of heat shock protein (HSP) 70, 5'untranslated region of HSP70-1, 3' untranslated region of HSP70-2, D8S84 and D8S85. The data were processed by the genotype-based haplotype relative risk(GHRR) and transmission disequilibrium test(TDT) methods in PPAP. Some signs of association and disequilibrium between D8S85 and FC were shown by GHRR and TDT. A suspect linkage of familial febrile convulsions to the long arm of chromosome 8 has been proposed.

  2. Fuel related risks; Braenslerisker

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Englund, Jessica; Sernhed, Kerstin; Nystroem, Olle; Graveus, Frank (Grontmij AB, (Sweden))

    2012-02-15

    The project, within which this work report was prepared, aimed to complement the Vaermeforsk publication 'Handbook of fuels' on fuel related risks and measures to reduce the risks. The fuels examined in this project where the fuels included in the first version of the handbook from 2005 plus four additional fuels that will be included in the second and next edition of the handbook. Following fuels were included: woodfuels (sawdust, wood chips, powder, briquettes), slash, recycled wood, salix, bark, hardwood, stumps, straw, reed canary grass, hemp, cereal, cereal waste, olive waste, cocoa beans, citrus waste, shea, sludge, forest industrial sludge, manure, Paper Wood Plastic, tyre, leather waste, cardboard rejects, meat and bone meal, liquid animal and vegetable wastes, tall oil pitch, peat, residues from food industry, biomal (including slaughterhouse waste) and lignin. The report includes two main chapters; a general risk chapter and a chapter of fuel specific risks. The first one deals with the general concept of risk, it highlights laws and rules relevant for risk management and it discuss general risks that are related to the different steps of fuel handling, i.e. unloading, storing, processing the fuel, transportation within the facility, combustion and handling of ashes. The information that was used to produce this chapter was gathered through a literature review, site visits, and the project group's experience from risk management. The other main chapter deals with fuel-specific risks and the measures to reduce the risks for the steps of unloading, storing, processing the fuel, internal transportation, combustion and handling of the ashes. Risks and measures were considered for all the biofuels included in the second version in the handbook of fuels. Information about the risks and risk management was gathered through interviews with people working with different kinds of fuels in electricity and heat plants in Sweden. The information from

  3. Suicide risk in relation to air pollen counts: a study based on data from Danish registers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Ping; Waltoft, Berit L; Mortensen, Preben B; Postolache, Teodor T

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Since the well-observed spring peak of suicide incidents coincides with the peak of seasonal aeroallergens as tree-pollen, we want to document an association between suicide and pollen exposure with empirical data from Denmark. Design Ecological time series study. Setting Data on suicide incidents, air pollen counts and meteorological status were retrieved from Danish registries. Participants 13 700 suicide incidents over 1304 consecutive weeks were obtained from two large areas covering 2.86 million residents. Primary and secondary outcome measures Risk of suicide associated with pollen concentration was assessed using a time series Poisson-generalised additive model. Results We noted a significant association between suicide risk and air pollen counts. A change of pollen counts levels from 0 to ‘10–suicides in the population, and from 0 to ‘30–100’ grains, a relative risk of 1.132. The observed association remained significant after controlling for effects of region, calendar time, temperature, cloud cover and humidity. Meanwhile, we observed a significant sex difference that suicide risk in men started to rise when there was a small increase of air pollen, while the risk in women started to rise until pollen grains reached a certain level. High levels of pollen had slightly stronger effect on risk of suicide in individuals with mood disorder than those without the disorder. Conclusions The observed association between suicide risk and air pollen counts supports the hypothesis that aeroallergens, acting as immune triggers, may precipitate suicide. PMID:23793651

  4. Method of assessing a lipid-related health risk based on ion mobility analysis of lipoproteins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benner, W. Henry; Krauss, Ronald M.; Blanche, Patricia J.

    2010-12-14

    A medical diagnostic method and instrumentation system for analyzing noncovalently bonded agglomerated biological particles is described. The method and system comprises: a method of preparation for the biological particles; an electrospray generator; an alpha particle radiation source; a differential mobility analyzer; a particle counter; and data acquisition and analysis means. The medical device is useful for the assessment of human diseases, such as cardiac disease risk and hyperlipidemia, by rapid quantitative analysis of lipoprotein fraction densities. Initially, purification procedures are described to reduce an initial blood sample to an analytical input to the instrument. The measured sizes from the analytical sample are correlated with densities, resulting in a spectrum of lipoprotein densities. The lipoprotein density distribution can then be used to characterize cardiac and other lipid-related health risks.

  5. Risk-based investment trade-off related to building facility management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taillandier, F. [Departement TIDS, Centre Scientifique et Technique du Batiment, 06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Laboratoire Optimisation de la conception et Ingenierie de l' environnement, Polytech' Savoie, Universite de Savoie, 73376 Le Bourget du lac (France)], E-mail: franck.taillandier@univ-savoie.fr; Sauce, G. [Laboratoire Optimisation de la conception et Ingenierie de l' environnement, Polytech' Savoie, Universite de Savoie, 73376 Le Bourget du lac (France); Bonetto, R. [Departement TIDS, Centre Scientifique et Technique du Batiment, 06904 Sophia Antipolis (France)

    2009-04-15

    Due to his or her profession, any building facility manager has to face many decision-making situations. One of the most important to be mentioned is the arbitration of a multi-year maintenance plan for buildings. Deciding between proposed maintenance actions, according to several constraints, so as to aim at satisfying corporate strategy is a complex choice. Risk approaches can be particularly effective because of their ability to handle complexity and uncertainties. The problem is then to be able to propose a method considering risks, adapted to the specific context of building facility management. Our method, regarded as a traditional approach, includes needed resources (i.e. costs) according to constraints (i.e. budget), but it also considers several risk domains (safety, technical preservation, client satisfaction, etc.), through the consequences (gain and loss). It proposes an ergonomic arbitration system based on filters following two complementary approaches: a selection of the fundamental actions and then an optimization of the plan (in a global view). The aim, for decision-makers, is to build their own solution by testing multiple angles of vision in simulation logic. This article presents the principles of the method, illustrated by an example of a real case conducted for a leading French company.

  6. Risk-based investment trade-off related to building facility management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taillandier, F.; Sauce, G.; Bonetto, R.

    2009-01-01

    Due to his or her profession, any building facility manager has to face many decision-making situations. One of the most important to be mentioned is the arbitration of a multi-year maintenance plan for buildings. Deciding between proposed maintenance actions, according to several constraints, so as to aim at satisfying corporate strategy is a complex choice. Risk approaches can be particularly effective because of their ability to handle complexity and uncertainties. The problem is then to be able to propose a method considering risks, adapted to the specific context of building facility management. Our method, regarded as a traditional approach, includes needed resources (i.e. costs) according to constraints (i.e. budget), but it also considers several risk domains (safety, technical preservation, client satisfaction, etc.), through the consequences (gain and loss). It proposes an ergonomic arbitration system based on filters following two complementary approaches: a selection of the fundamental actions and then an optimization of the plan (in a global view). The aim, for decision-makers, is to build their own solution by testing multiple angles of vision in simulation logic. This article presents the principles of the method, illustrated by an example of a real case conducted for a leading French company

  7. Related factors and incidence risk of acute myocardial infarction among the people with disability: A national population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ying-Ying; Kung, Pei-Tseng; Chiu, Li-Ting; Tsai, Wen-Chen

    2014-11-06

    Cardiovascular disease has always been a leading cause of death worldwide. Because the mobility of people with disability is relatively decreased, their risk of cardiovascular disease is increased. This study investigated the risks and relevant factors of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) among people with disability. This is a retrospective cohort study based on secondary data analysis. This study focused on 798,328 people with disability who were aged 35 and above during 2002-2008 and were registered in the National Disability Registration Database; the relevant medical data from 2000 to 2011 were acquired from the National Health Insurance Research Database. A Cox proportional hazards model was adopted for analyzing the relative AMI risks among different disability types and finding latent risk factors. The results indicated that the AMI incidence rate (per 1000 patient-years) among people with disability was 2.48. Men had an AMI incidence rate of 2.68 per 1000 patient-years, which was significantly higher than that of women (2.21; pdisability aged 65 and above had an AMI risk that was 5.01-6.03 times the risk for people with disability aged below 45. Disabled indigenous people had a relatively higher AMI risk (HR=1.35, 95% CI=1.19-1.52). The AMI risk for people with disability with a Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) of 4 and above was 5.89 times (95% CI=5.56-6.25) the risk for those with a CCI of 0. Compared with people with physical disabilities, people with visual impairment and people with dysfunctional primary organs had significantly higher AMI risks (HR=1.15; HR=1.66). This study found that people with disability who were male, aged 65 and above, married, indigenous, with physical disabilities, with high comorbidity, or with high disability levels had relatively higher AMI risks than other people with disability. The research outcomes can be used as references by public health authorities to improve the engagement of people with disability in AMI

  8. Dynamic taxonomies applied to a web-based relational database for geo-hydrological risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sacco, G. M.; Nigrelli, G.; Bosio, A.; Chiarle, M.; Luino, F.

    2012-02-01

    In its 40 years of activity, the Research Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection of the Italian National Research Council has amassed a vast and varied collection of historical documentation on landslides, muddy-debris flows, and floods in northern Italy from 1600 to the present. Since 2008, the archive resources have been maintained through a relational database management system. The database is used for routine study and research purposes as well as for providing support during geo-hydrological emergencies, when data need to be quickly and accurately retrieved. Retrieval speed and accuracy are the main objectives of an implementation based on a dynamic taxonomies model. Dynamic taxonomies are a general knowledge management model for configuring complex, heterogeneous information bases that support exploratory searching. At each stage of the process, the user can explore or browse the database in a guided yet unconstrained way by selecting the alternatives suggested for further refining the search. Dynamic taxonomies have been successfully applied to such diverse and apparently unrelated domains as e-commerce and medical diagnosis. Here, we describe the application of dynamic taxonomies to our database and compare it to traditional relational database query methods. The dynamic taxonomy interface, essentially a point-and-click interface, is considerably faster and less error-prone than traditional form-based query interfaces that require the user to remember and type in the "right" search keywords. Finally, dynamic taxonomy users have confirmed that one of the principal benefits of this approach is the confidence of having considered all the relevant information. Dynamic taxonomies and relational databases work in synergy to provide fast and precise searching: one of the most important factors in timely response to emergencies.

  9. A relative risk comparison of criticality control strategies based on fresh fuel and burnup credit design bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanders, T.L.

    1989-01-01

    The fresh fuel design basis provides some margin of safety, i.e., criticality safety is almost independent of loading operations if fuel designs do not change significantly over the next 40 years. However, the design basis enrichment for future nuclear fuel will most likely vary with time. As a result, it cannot be guaranteed that the perceived passivity of the concept will be maintained over the life cycle of a future cask system. Several options are available to ensure that the reliability of a burnup credit system is comparable to or greater than that of a system based on a fresh fuel assumption. Criticality safety and control reliability could increase with burnup credit implementation. The safety of a burnup credit system could be comparable to that for a system based on the fresh fuel assumption. A burnup credit philosophy could be implemented without any cost-benefit tradeoff. A burnup credit design basis could result in a significant reduction in total system risk as well as economic benefits. These reductions occur primarily as a result of increased cask capacities and, thus, fewer shipments. Fewer shipments also result in fewer operations over the useful life of a cask, and opportunities for error decrease. The system concept can be designed such that only benefits occur. These benefits could include enhanced criticality safety and the overall reliability of cask operations, as well as system risk and economic benefits. Thus, burnup credit should be available as an alternative for the criticality design of spent fuel shipping casks

  10. Modelling domestic stock energy use and heat-related health risk : a GIS-based bottom-up modelling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mavrogianni, A.; Davies, M. [Univ. College London, London (United Kingdom). Bartlett School of Graduate Studies; Chalabi, Z.; Wilkinson, P. [London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medecine, London (United Kingdom); Kolokotroni, M. [Brunel Univ., London (United Kingdom). School of Engineering Design

    2009-07-01

    Approximately 8 per cent of the carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions produced in the United Kingdom are produced in London, one of the fastest growing cities worldwide. Based on the projected rates of population and economic growth, a 15 per cent increase of emissions is predicted. In addition to the national target to cut emissions by 80 per cent by 2050, the Mayor of London Climate Change Action Plan set a target to reduce London's CO{sub 2} emissions by 60 per cent by 2025. Significant carbon savings can be achieved in the building sector, particularly since 38 per cent of the total delivered energy in London is associated with domestic energy use. This paper demonstrated a systematic approach towards exploring the impact of urban built form and the combined effect of climate change and the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon on the levels of domestic energy consumption and heat-related health risk in London. It presented work in progress on the development of a GIS-based energy consumption model and heat vulnerability index of the Greater London Area domestic stock. Comparison of the model output for 10 case study areas with topdown energy statistics revealed that the model successfully ranks areas based on their domestic space heating demand. The health module can be used to determine environments prone to higher risk of heat stress by investigating urban texture factors. A newly developed epidemiological model will be feed into the health module to examine the influence on risk of heat-related mortality of local urban built form characteristics. The epidemiological model is based on multi-variable analysis of deaths during heat wave and non-heat wave days. 29 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.

  11. Incidence of liver trauma and relative risk factors for mortality: A population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-Chien Chien

    2013-10-01

    Results: A total of 3196 liver trauma patients were admitted in 2007 and 2008, resulting in 264 deaths. The incidence rate is 13.9/100,000 population. The highest incidence rate was in the age 15–24 years group, 25.9/100,000 population; the highest mortality rate was in the age 75–84 years group, 2.1/100,000 population. Additionally, rural residents possessed a higher incidence and mortality rate than urban residents (15.9/100,000 population vs. 12.2/100,000 population and 1.4/100,000 population vs. 1.0/100,000 population. By using logistic regression, the mortality rate was significantly higher in the groups with patients aged >64 years, renal failure or liver cirrhosis, with head or chest, or other abdominal injury. If a patient received a hepatic or abdominal operation, this was retrospectively found to be associated with increased mortality risk (4.731 times, p US$660 were found to have a higher mortality risk (2.209 times, p  64 years group, pedestrians hit in motor-vehicle accidents, renal failure or liver cirrhosis, with head or chest, or other abdominal injury.

  12. Estimating risks and relative risks in case-base studies under the assumptions of gene-environment independence and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Tsz-Ting Chui

    Full Text Available Many diseases result from the interactions between genes and the environment. An efficient method has been proposed for a case-control study to estimate the genetic and environmental main effects and their interactions, which exploits the assumptions of gene-environment independence and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. To estimate the absolute and relative risks, one needs to resort to an alternative design: the case-base study. In this paper, the authors show how to analyze a case-base study under the above dual assumptions. This approach is based on a conditional logistic regression of case-counterfactual controls matched data. It can be easily fitted with readily available statistical packages. When the dual assumptions are met, the method is approximately unbiased and has adequate coverage probabilities for confidence intervals. It also results in smaller variances and shorter confidence intervals as compared with a previous method for a case-base study which imposes neither assumption.

  13. Estimating Risks and Relative Risks in Case-Base Studies under the Assumptions of Gene-Environment Independence and Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chui, Tina Tsz-Ting; Lee, Wen-Chung

    2014-01-01

    Many diseases result from the interactions between genes and the environment. An efficient method has been proposed for a case-control study to estimate the genetic and environmental main effects and their interactions, which exploits the assumptions of gene-environment independence and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. To estimate the absolute and relative risks, one needs to resort to an alternative design: the case-base study. In this paper, the authors show how to analyze a case-base study under the above dual assumptions. This approach is based on a conditional logistic regression of case-counterfactual controls matched data. It can be easily fitted with readily available statistical packages. When the dual assumptions are met, the method is approximately unbiased and has adequate coverage probabilities for confidence intervals. It also results in smaller variances and shorter confidence intervals as compared with a previous method for a case-base study which imposes neither assumption. PMID:25137392

  14. The relativity of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, R.H.

    1987-01-01

    The transport of radioactive material has long been a subject of emotive controversy. For a realistic assessment of the risks involved, however, they must be seen in the context of the transport of any hazardous cargoes, especially those which are energy-producing products

  15. Method for evaluation of risk due to seismic related design and construction errors based on past reactor experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Cuesta, M.; Okrent, D.

    1985-01-01

    This paper proposes a methodology for quantification of risk due to seismic related design and construction errors in nuclear power plants, based on information available on errors discovered in the past. For the purposes of this paper, an error is defined as any event that causes the seismic safety margins of a nuclear power plant to be smaller than implied by current regulatory requirements and industry common practice. Also, the actual reduction in the safety margins caused by the error will be called a deficiency. The method is based on a theoretical model of errors, called a deficiency logic diagram. First, an ultimate cause is present. This ultimate cause is consumated as a specific instance, called originating error. As originating errors may occur in actions to be applied a number of times, a deficiency generation system may be involved. Quality assurance activities will hopefully identify most of these deficiencies, requesting their disposition. However, the quality assurance program is not perfect and some operating plant deficiencies may persist, causing different levels of impact to the plant logic. The paper provides a way of extrapolating information about errors discovered in plants under construction in order to assess the risk due to errors that have not been discovered

  16. Early-onset inguinal hernia as risk factor for schizophrenia or related psychosis: a nationwide register-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melkersson, Kristina; Wernroth, Mona-Lisa

    2017-10-01

    In an earlier interview study, we found that more men with familial schizophrenia had undergone inguinal hernia operation, than men with sporadic schizophrenia. However, there are no other studies published specifically on inguinal hernia and schizophrenia. Therefore, the aim of this study was to carry out a Swedish register-based cohort study on the association between inguinal hernia and schizophrenia or related psychosis. Data from the Total Population- and Medical Birth-Registers were used to create a cohort of all individuals born in Sweden 1987-1999 (n=1 406 168). The cohort individuals were linked with the In- and Out-patient Registers and followed from birth to 2015 to identify onset of schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder and inguinal hernia. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association between inguinal hernia before age 13 and risk of developing schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder during a follow-up from age 13. Inguinal hernia before age 13 was identified in 21 095 individuals, and during the follow-up in total 1314 individuals developed schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder. The risk of schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder was higher among individuals with inguinal hernia before age 13, than among individuals without such a diagnosis, especially among the men [adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval); all: 1.44 (1.01-2.06), p=0.0452, men: 1.46 (1.01-2.12), p=0.0460, women: 0.56 (0.14-2.27), p=0.4173]. This study shows that early-onset inguinal hernia is associated with increased risk of developing schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder, especially in men. Such an association may point to a common biological basis for the development of inguinal hernia and schizophrenia or related psychosis.

  17. Dietary Protein and Amino Acid Profiles in Relation to Risk of Dysglycemia: Findings from a Prospective Population-Based Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parvin Mirmiran

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Considering the limited knowledge on the effects of dietary amino acid intake on dysglycemia, we assessed the possible association of dietary protein and amino acid patterns with the risk of pre-diabetes in a prospective population-based study. Participants without diabetes and pre-diabetes (n = 1878 were recruited from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study and were followed for a mean of 5.8 years. Their dietary protein and amino acid intakes were assessed at baseline (2006–2008; demographic, lifestyle, and biochemical variables were evaluated at baseline and in follow-up examinations. Pre-diabetes was defined according to the American Diabetes Association criteria. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models, adjusted for potential confounders, were used to estimate the risk of pre-diabetes across tertiles of dietary protein and amino acid pattern scores. The mean age of the participants (44.9% men was 38.3 ± 12.7 years at baseline. Three major amino acid patterns were characterized: (1 higher loads of lysine, methionine, valine, aspartic acids, tyrosine, threonine, isoleucine, leucine, alanine, histidine, and serine; (2 higher loads of glycine, cysteine, arginine, and tryptophan; and (3 higher loads of proline and glutamic acid. Dietary total protein intake Hazard Ratio (HR = 1.13, 95% Confidence Interval (CI = 0.92–1.38 and HR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.81–1.23, in the second and third tertile, respectively was not related to the development of pre-diabetes. The highest score of second dietary amino acid pattern tended to be associated with a decreased risk of pre-diabetes (HR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.65–1.01, whereas the third pattern was related to an increased risk in the fully adjusted model (HR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.02–1.52; p for trend = 0.05. These novel data suggest that the amino acid composition of an individual’s diet may modify their risk of pre-diabetes.

  18. Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Andres Calvache

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

  19. Work-related stress, inability to relax after work and risk of adult asthma: a population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loerbroks, A; Gadinger, M C; Bosch, J A; Stürmer, T; Amelang, M

    2010-10-01

    There is an extensive literature linking stressful work conditions to adverse health outcomes. Notwithstanding, the relationship with asthma has not been examined, although various other measures of psychological stress have been associated with asthma. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the relation between work stress and asthma prevalence and incidence. We used data from a population-based cohort study (n = 5114 at baseline in 1992-1995 and n = 4010 at follow-up in 2002/2003). Asthma was measured by self-reports. Two scales that assessed psychologically adverse work conditions were extracted from a list of work-condition items by factor analysis (these scales were termed 'work stress' and 'inability to relax after work'). For each scale, the derived score was employed both as continuous z-score and as categorized variable in analyses. Associations with asthma were estimated by prevalence ratios (PRs) and risk ratios (RRs) using Poisson regression with a log-link function adjusting for demographics, health-related lifestyles, body mass index and family history of asthma. Analyses were restricted to those in employment (n = 3341). Work stress and inability to relax z-scores were positively associated with asthma prevalence (PR = 1.15, 95%CI = 0.97, 1.36 and PR = 1.43, 95%CI = 1.12, 1.83, respectively). Prospective analyses using z-scores showed that for each 1 standard deviation increase in work stress and inability to relax, the risk of asthma increased by approximately 40% (RR for work stress = 1.46, 95%CI = 1.06, 2.00; RR for inability to relax = 1.39, 95%CI = 1.01, 1.91). Similar patterns of associations were observed in analyses of categorized exposures. This is the first study to show a cross-sectional and longitudinal association of work stress with asthma.

  20. Gabapentin, opioids, and the risk of opioid-related death: A population-based nested case-control study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tara Gomes

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Prescription opioid use is highly associated with risk of opioid-related death, with 1 of every 550 chronic opioid users dying within approximately 2.5 years of their first opioid prescription. Although gabapentin is widely perceived as safe, drug-induced respiratory depression has been described when gabapentin is used alone or in combination with other medications. Because gabapentin and opioids are both commonly prescribed for pain, the likelihood of co-prescription is high. However, no published studies have examined whether concomitant gabapentin therapy is associated with an increased risk of accidental opioid-related death in patients receiving opioids. The objective of this study was to investigate whether co-prescription of opioids and gabapentin is associated with an increased risk of accidental opioid-related mortality.We conducted a population-based nested case-control study among opioid users who were residents of Ontario, Canada, between August 1, 1997, and December 31, 2013, using administrative databases. Cases, defined as opioid users who died of an opioid-related cause, were matched with up to 4 controls who also used opioids on age, sex, year of index date, history of chronic kidney disease, and a disease risk index. After matching, we included 1,256 cases and 4,619 controls. The primary exposure was concomitant gabapentin use in the 120 days preceding the index date. A secondary analysis characterized gabapentin dose as low (<900 mg daily, moderate (900 to 1,799 mg daily, or high (≥1,800 mg daily. A sensitivity analysis examined the effect of concomitant nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID use in the preceding 120 days. Overall, 12.3% of cases (155 of 1,256 and 6.8% of controls (313 of 4,619 were prescribed gabapentin in the prior 120 days. After multivariable adjustment, co-prescription of opioids and gabapentin was associated with a significantly increased odds of opioid-related death (odds ratio [OR] 1.99, 95% CI

  1. Risk based modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

    1993-01-01

    Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

  2. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

  3. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

  4. Nature Disaster Risk Evaluation with a Group Decision Making Method Based on Incomplete Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Because the natural disaster system is a very comprehensive and large system, the disaster reduction scheme must rely on risk analysis. Experts’ knowledge and experiences play a critical role in disaster risk assessment. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is an effective tool to express experts’ preference information when comparing pairwise alternatives. Owing to the lack of knowledge or a heavy workload, information may be missed in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Thus, an incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is constructed. In this paper, we firstly discuss some properties of the additive consistent hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Next, the incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, the normalized hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, and the acceptable hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation are defined. Afterwards, three procedures to estimate the missing information are proposed. The first one deals with the situation in which there are only n − 1 known judgments involving all the alternatives; the second one is used to estimate the missing information of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation with more known judgments; while the third procedure is used to deal with ignorance situations in which there is at least one alternative with totally missing information. Furthermore, an algorithm for group decision making with incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations is given. Finally, we illustrate our model with a case study about flood disaster risk evaluation. A comparative analysis is presented to testify the advantage of our method.

  5. Nature Disaster Risk Evaluation with a Group Decision Making Method Based on Incomplete Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Ming; Liao, Huchang; Li, Zongmin; Xu, Zeshui

    2018-04-13

    Because the natural disaster system is a very comprehensive and large system, the disaster reduction scheme must rely on risk analysis. Experts' knowledge and experiences play a critical role in disaster risk assessment. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is an effective tool to express experts' preference information when comparing pairwise alternatives. Owing to the lack of knowledge or a heavy workload, information may be missed in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Thus, an incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is constructed. In this paper, we firstly discuss some properties of the additive consistent hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Next, the incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, the normalized hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, and the acceptable hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation are defined. Afterwards, three procedures to estimate the missing information are proposed. The first one deals with the situation in which there are only n-1 known judgments involving all the alternatives; the second one is used to estimate the missing information of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation with more known judgments; while the third procedure is used to deal with ignorance situations in which there is at least one alternative with totally missing information. Furthermore, an algorithm for group decision making with incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations is given. Finally, we illustrate our model with a case study about flood disaster risk evaluation. A comparative analysis is presented to testify the advantage of our method.

  6. The maternal age-related first trimester risks for trisomy 21, 18 and 13 based on Danish first trimester data from 2005 to 2014

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartwig, Tanja Schlaikjær; Sørensen, Steen; Jørgensen, Finn Stener

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Most currently used age-related risks of T21, T18 and T13 are based on estimates of the live-birth prevalence, and describe an exponential increase of risk by increased maternal age. We investigated the first trimester prevalence of T21, T18 and T13 in a large population of Danish women......) / slope)) was found to best describe the age-related risk of T21, T18 and T13. CONCLUSION: We found that the age-related risks are better described by sigmoidal functions, contrary to the widely assumed exponential functions. Our results indicate a lower age-related a priori risk of T21, T18 and T13...

  7. A relative risk comparison of criticality control strategies based on fresh fuel and burnup credit design bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanders, T.L.

    1988-01-01

    The proposed use of burnup credit in spent fuel cask design and operation represents a departure from current regulatory practice, and creates technical issues that ultimately must be resolved for the concept to be implemented. Issues related to specific technical considerations can generally be resolved conclusively. However, an underlying perception may still exist that the use of burnup credit compromises criticality safety. In practice, individual casks are designed to satisfy regulatory requirements in a generally conservative manner. The designer's application of the regulatory requirements involves some engineering judgement, as does the regulator's implementation of them. This does not have an adverse effect on safety, but does make it difficult to objectively compare new or alternative designs and/or operating approaches. 5 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  8. Risk-based decisionmaking (Panel)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, T.H.

    1995-12-31

    By means of a panel discussion and extensive audience interaction, explore the current challenges and progress to date in applying risk considerations to decisionmaking related to low-level waste. This topic is especially timely because of the proposed legislation pertaining to risk-based decisionmaking and because of the increased emphasis placed on radiological performance assessments of low-level waste disposal.

  9. Comparison of the Validity of Four Fall-Related Psychological Measures in a Community-Based Falls Risk Screening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Delilah S.; Ellis, Rebecca; Kosma, Maria; Fabre, Jennifer M.; McCarter, Kevin S.; Wood, Robert H.

    2011-01-01

    We examined the measurement properties of fall-related psychological instruments with a sample of 133 older adults (M age = 74.4 years, SD = 9.4). Measures included the Comprehensive Falls Risk Screening Instrument, Falls-efficacy Scale-International (FES-I), Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC), modified Survey of Activities and Fear of…

  10. Employment relations, flexibility and risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Carsten Strøby

    Employment relations literature often distinguishes between social democratic/corporatist models of employment relations and liberal models of employment relations as they are seen as opposite or at least different ways of organizing labor markets. They are often characterized as having very...... different risk profiles in terms of relationships between employees, employers, and the state. Low levels of labor market regulation very often characterize the liberal models of employment relations as we know them from, for instance, the USA and the UK. This means that employment conditions are very often...... insecure and that the burden of unemployment risk mostly lies with the employees rather than the employer. Corporatist – or social democratic – employment relations models are, in contrast to the liberal models, often characterized by stricter regulation of the labor market and by high standards...

  11. An index-based method to assess risks of climate-related hazards in coastal zones: The case of Tetouan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satta, Alessio; Snoussi, Maria; Puddu, Manuela; Flayou, Latifa; Hout, Radouane

    2016-06-01

    The regional risk assessment carried out within the ClimVar & ICZM Project identified the coastal zone of Tetouan as a hotspot of the Mediterranean Moroccan coast and so it was chosen for the application of the Multi-Scale Coastal Risk Index for Local Scale (CRI-LS). The local scale approach provides a useful tool for local coastal planning and management by exploring the effects and the extensions of the hazards and combining hazard, vulnerability and exposure variables in order to identify areas where the risk is relatively high. The coast of Tetouan is one of the coastal areas that have been most rapidly and densely urbanized in Morocco and it is characterized by an erosive shoreline. Local authorities are facing the complex task of balancing development and managing coastal risks, especially coastal erosion and flooding, and then be prepared to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The first phase of the application of the CRI-LS methodology to Tetouan consisted of defining the coastal hazard zone, which results from the overlaying of the erosion hazard zone and the flooding hazard zone. Nineteen variables were chosen to describe the Hazards, Vulnerability and Exposure factors. The scores corresponding to each variable were calculated and the weights assigned through an expert judgement elicitation. The resulting values are hosted in a geographic information system (GIS) platform that enables the individual variables and aggregated risk scores to be color-coded and mapped across the coastal hazard zone. The results indicated that 10% and 27% of investigated littoral fall under respectively very high and high vulnerability because of combination of high erosion rates with high capital land use. The risk map showed that some areas, especially the flood plains of Restinga, Smir and Martil-Alila, with distances over 5 km from the coast, are characterized by high levels of risk due to the low topography of the flood plains and to the high values of exposure

  12. Managing Operational Risk Related to Microfinance Lending Process using Fuzzy Inference System based on the FMEA Method: Moroccan Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alaoui Youssef Lamrani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Managing operational risk efficiently is a critical factor of microfinance institutions (MFIs to get a financial and social return. The purpose of this paper is to identify, assess and prioritize the root causes of failure within the microfinance lending process (MLP especially in Moroccan microfinance institutions. Considering the limitation of traditional failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA method in assessing and classifying risks, the methodology adopted in this study focuses on developing a fuzzy logic inference system (FLIS based on (FMEA. This approach can take into account the subjectivity of risk indicators and the insufficiency of statistical data. The results show that the Moroccan MFIs need to focus more on customer relationship management and give more importance to their staff training, to clients screening as well as to their business analysis.

  13. A Preliminary Study on the Efficacy of a Community-Based Physical Activity Intervention on Physical Function-Related Risk Factors for Falls Among Breast Cancer Survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C Ellen; Warden, Stuart J; Szuck, Beth; Lau, Y K James

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the effects of a 6-week community-based physical activity (PA) intervention on physical function-related risk factors for falls among 56 breast cancer survivors (BCS) who had completed treatments. This was a single-group longitudinal study. The multimodal PA intervention included aerobic, strengthening, and balance components. Physical function outcomes based on the 4-meter walk, chair stand, one-leg stance, tandem walk, and dynamic muscular endurance tests were assessed at 6-week pre-intervention (T1), baseline (T2), and post-intervention (T3). T1 to T2 and T2 to T3 were the control and intervention periods, respectively. All outcomes, except the tandem walk test, significantly improved after the intervention period (P control period (P > 0.05). Based on the falls risk criterion in the one-leg stance test, the proportion at risk for falls was significantly lower after the intervention period (P = 0.04), but not after the control period. A community-based multimodal PA intervention for BCS may be efficacious in improving physical function-related risk factors for falls, and lowering the proportion of BCS at risk for falls based on specific physical function-related falls criteria. Further larger trials are needed to confirm these preliminary findings.

  14. A Preliminary Study on the Efficacy of a Community-Based Physical Activity Intervention on Physical Function-Related Risk Factors for Falls among Breast Cancer Survivors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C. Ellen; Warden, Stuart J.; Szuck, Beth; Lau, Y.K. James

    2015-01-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to examine the effects of a 6-week community-based physical activity (PA) intervention on physical function-related risk factors for falls among 56 breast cancer survivors (BCS) who had completed treatments. Design This was a single-group longitudinal study. The multimodal PA intervention included aerobic, strengthening and balance components. Physical function outcomes based on the 4-meter walk, chair stand, one-leg stance, tandem walk, and dynamic muscular endurance tests were assessed at 6-week pre-intervention (T1), baseline (T2), and post-intervention (T3). T1-T2 and T2-T3 were the control and intervention periods, respectively. Results All outcomes, except the tandem walk test, significantly improved after the intervention period (p 0.05). Based on the falls risk criterion in the one-leg stance test, the proportion at risk for falls was significantly lower after the intervention period (p = 0.04), but not after the control period. Conclusions A community-based multimodal PA intervention for BCS may be efficacious in improving physical function-related risk factors for falls, and lowering the proportion of BCS at risk for falls based on specific physical function-related falls criteria. Further larger trials are needed to confirm these preliminary findings. PMID:26829081

  15. Performance evaluation of inpatient service in Beijing: a horizontal comparison with risk adjustment based on Diagnosis Related Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian, Weiyan; Huang, Yinmin; Hu, Mu; Zhang, Xiumei

    2009-04-30

    The medical performance evaluation, which provides a basis for rational decision-making, is an important part of medical service research. Current progress with health services reform in China is far from satisfactory, without sufficient regulation. To achieve better progress, an effective tool for evaluating medical performance needs to be established. In view of this, this study attempted to develop such a tool appropriate for the Chinese context. Data was collected from the front pages of medical records (FPMR) of all large general public hospitals (21 hospitals) in the third and fourth quarter of 2007. Locally developed Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) were introduced as a tool for risk adjustment and performance evaluation indicators were established: Charge Efficiency Index (CEI), Time Efficiency Index (TEI) and inpatient mortality of low-risk group cases (IMLRG), to reflect respectively work efficiency and medical service quality. Using these indicators, the inpatient services' performance was horizontally compared among hospitals. Case-mix Index (CMI) was used to adjust efficiency indices and then produce adjusted CEI (aCEI) and adjusted TEI (aTEI). Poisson distribution analysis was used to test the statistical significance of the IMLRG differences between different hospitals. Using the aCEI, aTEI and IMLRG scores for the 21 hospitals, Hospital A and C had relatively good overall performance because their medical charges were lower, LOS shorter and IMLRG smaller. The performance of Hospital P and Q was the worst due to their relatively high charge level, long LOS and high IMLRG. Various performance problems also existed in the other hospitals. It is possible to develop an accurate and easy to run performance evaluation system using Case-Mix as the tool for risk adjustment, choosing indicators close to consumers and managers, and utilizing routine report forms as the basic information source. To keep such a system running effectively, it is necessary to

  16. Cognitive and Physical Function in Relation to the Risk of Injurious Falls in Older Adults: A Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welmer, Anna-Karin; Rizzuto, Debora; Laukka, Erika J; Johnell, Kristina; Fratiglioni, Laura

    2017-05-01

    We aimed to quantify the independent effect of cognitive and physical deficits on the risk of injurious falls, to verify whether this risk is modified by global cognitive impairment, and to explore whether risk varies by follow-up time. Data on 2,495 participants (≥60 years) from the population-based Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K) study were analyzed using flexible parametric survival models. Two cognitive domains (processing speed and executive function) were assessed with standard tests. Physical function tests included balance (one-leg-stands), walking speed, chair stands, and grip strength. Global cognition was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination. A total of 167 people experienced an injurious fall over 3 years of follow-up, 310 over 5 years, and 571 over 10 years. Each standard deviation worse balance, slower walking speed, and longer chair stand time increased the risk of injurious falls over 3 years by 43%, 38%, and 23%, respectively (p risk of injurious falls over 10 years (p falls only in people with cognitive impairment, whereas deficits in processing speed and executive function were associated with injurious falls only in people without cognitive impairment. Deficits in specific cognitive domains, such as processing speed and executive function, appear to predict injurious falls in the long term. Deficits in physical function predict falls in the short term, especially in people with global cognitive impairment. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Dietary Protein and Amino Acid Profiles in Relation to Risk of Dysglycemia: Findings from a Prospective Population-Based Study

    OpenAIRE

    Mirmiran, Parvin; Bahadoran, Zahra; Esfandyari, Saeed; Azizi, Fereidoun

    2017-01-01

    Considering the limited knowledge on the effects of dietary amino acid intake on dysglycemia, we assessed the possible association of dietary protein and amino acid patterns with the risk of pre-diabetes in a prospective population-based study. Participants without diabetes and pre-diabetes (n = 1878) were recruited from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study and were followed for a mean of 5.8 years. Their dietary protein and amino acid intakes were assessed at baseline (2006–2008); demographic,...

  18. The relation of metabolic syndrome according to five definitions to cardiovascular risk factors - a population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lai Ming-May

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP, International Diabetes Federation (IDF, American Heart Association and National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (AHA/NHLBI, World Health Organization (WHO, and the European Group for the Study of Insulin Resistance (EGIR definitions of metabolic syndrome (MetS have been commonly used by studies, little is known about agreement among these five definitions. We examined the agreement among these five definitions and explored their relationship with risk factors of cardiovascular disease in a Taiwan population. Methods A total of 1305 subjects aged 40 years and over in Taiwan were analyzed. Biomedical markers and anthropometric indices were measured. Agreement among definitions was determined by the kappa statistic. Logistic regression models were fit to estimate the odds of a high cardiovascular risk group for five definitions of MetS. Results The agreement among the NCEP, IDF, and AHA/NHLBI definitions was from substantial to very good, and agreement between the WHO and EGIR definitions was also substantial. All MetS definitions were significantly associated prevalence of microalbuminuria, elevated highly sensitive CRP (hs-CRP, and arterial stiffness only in women. In men, MetS by NCEP and AHA/NHLBI was associated with elevated level of hs-CRP and arterial stiffness. MetS by WHO and EGIR were significantly associated with microalbuminuria. And MetS by WHO was the only MetS definition that significantly associated with prevalence of arterial stiffness (OR: 2.75, 95% CI: 1.22-6.19. Conclusions The associations of these five definitions with cardiovascular risk factors were similar in women, and it was evident that the five definitions performed better in women than in men, with higher ORs observed in relation to arterial stiffness, elevated hs-CRP, and higher Framingham risk scores.

  19. Use of benzodiazepines or benzodiazepine related drugs and the risk of cancer: a population-based case-control study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pottegård, Anton; Friis, Søren; Andersen, Morten

    2013-01-01

    AIM: Studies of the carcinogenic potential of benzodiazepines and related drugs (BZRD) have been equivocal. A recent study reported a 35% excess cancer risk among users of hypnotics, including benzodiazepines. METHOD: Using Danish nationwide registers, we conducted a matched case-control study...... of the association between BZRD and cancer risk. During 1 January 2002 and 31 December 2009, we identified 152 510 cases with a first time cancer who were matched (1:8) by age and gender to 1,220,317 cancer-free controls. A new-user design was applied by excluding all subjects who had used anxiolytics, hypnotics.......02), liver 1.81 (95% CI 1.18, 2.80), lung 1.38 (95% CI 1.23, 1.54), pancreas 1.35 (95% CI 1.02, 1.79) and kidney 1.39 (95% CI 1.01, 1.91). For tobacco-related cancers, the OR was 1.15 (95% CI 1.09, 1.22) and for the remaining cancer sites 1.01 (95% CI 0.94, 1.08). Sub-group analyses revealed only small...

  20. Testing for changes in spatial relative risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazelton, Martin L

    2017-07-30

    The spatial relative risk function is a useful tool for describing geographical variation in disease incidence. We consider the problem of comparing relative risk functions between two time periods, with the idea of detecting alterations in the spatial pattern of disease risk irrespective of whether there has been a change in the overall incidence rate. Using case-control datasets for each period, we use kernel smoothing methods to derive a test statistic based on the difference between the log-relative risk functions, which we term the log-relative risk ratio. For testing a null hypothesis of an unchanging spatial pattern of risk, we show how p-values can be computed using both randomization methods and an asymptotic normal approximation. The methodology is applied to data on campylobacteriosis from 2006 to 2013 in a region of New Zealand. We find clear evidence of a change in the spatial pattern of risk between those years, which can be explained in differences by response to a public health initiative between urban and rural communities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Health-related direct-to-consumer genetic tests: a public health assessment and analysis of practices related to Internet-based tests for risk of thrombosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goddard, K A B; Robitaille, J; Dowling, N F; Parrado, A R; Fishman, J; Bradley, L A; Moore, C A; Khoury, M J

    2009-01-01

    Recent years have seen increased concern about direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic testing (i.e., the sale and use of genetic tests without involving a health care provider). Numerous professional organizations have developed policies in this area. However, little systematic evidence exists to inform public policy about these tests. We conducted a systematic search to identify genetic tests that are sold DTC without involving a health care provider. We evaluated the practices of companies offering DTC genetic tests for risk of thrombosis using criteria from multiple sources and a minimal set of key practices. We identified 84 instances of currently available health-related DTC genetic tests sold on 27 Web sites; the most common were for pharmacogenomics (12), risk of thrombosis (10), and nutrigenomics (10). For the DTC genetic tests for risk of thrombosis, we found low adherence to recommendations. Online information was frequently incomplete and had low agreement with professional recommendations. Our findings document the rapid growth in the availability of health-related DTC genetic tests and highlight the need to improve the delivery of DTC genetic tests. A major implication of this study is the need for the scientific and medical community to develop consistent recommendations to increase their impact. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  2. Relative Risk of Acute Myocardial Infarction in People with Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu-I Wu

    Full Text Available Despite high mortality associated with serious mental illness, risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI remains unclear, especially for patients with bipolar disorder. The main objective was to investigate the relative risk of AMI associated with schizophrenia and bipolar disorders in a national sample.Using nationwide administrative data, an 11-year historic cohort study was assembled, comprised of cases aged 18 and above who had received a diagnosis of schizophrenia or bipolar disorder, compared to a random sample of all other adults excluding those with diagnoses of serious mental illness. Incident AMI as a primary diagnosis was ascertained. Hazard ratios stratified by age and gender were calculated and Cox regression models were used to adjust for other covariates.A total of 70,225 people with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder and 207,592 people without serious mental illness were compared. Hazard ratios in men adjusted for age, income and urbanization were 1.15 (95% CI 1.01~1.32 for schizophrenia and 1.37 (1.08~1.73for bipolar disorder, and in women, 1.85 (1.58~2.18 and 1.88(1.47~2.41 respectively. Further adjustment for treated hypertension, diabetes and hyperlipidaemia attenuated the hazard ratio for men with schizophrenia but not the other comparison groups. Hazard ratios were significantly stronger in women than men and were stronger in younger compared to older age groups for both disorders; however, gender modification was only significant in people with schizophrenia, and age modification only significant in people with bipolar disorder.In this large national sample, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder were associated with raised risk of AMI in women and in the younger age groups although showed differences in potential confounding and modifying factors.

  3. Relative Risk of Acute Myocardial Infarction in People with Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Shu-I; Chen, Su-Chiu; Liu, Shen-Ing; Sun, Fang-Ju; Juang, Jimmy J M; Lee, Hsin-Chien; Kao, Kai-Liang; Dewey, Michael E; Prince, Martin; Stewart, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Despite high mortality associated with serious mental illness, risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) remains unclear, especially for patients with bipolar disorder. The main objective was to investigate the relative risk of AMI associated with schizophrenia and bipolar disorders in a national sample. Using nationwide administrative data, an 11-year historic cohort study was assembled, comprised of cases aged 18 and above who had received a diagnosis of schizophrenia or bipolar disorder, compared to a random sample of all other adults excluding those with diagnoses of serious mental illness. Incident AMI as a primary diagnosis was ascertained. Hazard ratios stratified by age and gender were calculated and Cox regression models were used to adjust for other covariates. A total of 70,225 people with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder and 207,592 people without serious mental illness were compared. Hazard ratios in men adjusted for age, income and urbanization were 1.15 (95% CI 1.01~1.32) for schizophrenia and 1.37 (1.08~1.73)for bipolar disorder, and in women, 1.85 (1.58~2.18) and 1.88(1.47~2.41) respectively. Further adjustment for treated hypertension, diabetes and hyperlipidaemia attenuated the hazard ratio for men with schizophrenia but not the other comparison groups. Hazard ratios were significantly stronger in women than men and were stronger in younger compared to older age groups for both disorders; however, gender modification was only significant in people with schizophrenia, and age modification only significant in people with bipolar disorder. In this large national sample, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder were associated with raised risk of AMI in women and in the younger age groups although showed differences in potential confounding and modifying factors.

  4. Heritability and mortality risk of insomnia-related symptoms: a genetic epidemiologic study in a population-based twin cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hublin, Christer; Partinen, Markku; Koskenvuo, Markku; Kaprio, Jaakko

    2011-07-01

    Our aim was to estimate heritability in phenotypic insomnia and the association between insomnia and mortality. Representative follow-up study. 1990 survey of the Finnish Twin Cohort (N = 12502 adults; 1554 monozygotic and 2991 dizygotic twin pairs). Current insomnia-related symptoms (insomnia in general, difficulty in initiating sleep, sleep latency, nocturnal awakening, early morning awakening, and non-restorative sleep assessed in the morning and during the day) were asked. Latent class analysis was used to classify subjects into different sleep quality classes. Quantitative genetic modelling was used to estimate heritability. Mortality data was obtained from national registers until end of April 2009. The heritability estimates of each symptom were similar in both genders varying from 34% (early morning awakening) to 45% (nocturnal awakening). The most parsimonious latent class analysis produced 3 classes: good sleepers (48%), average sleepers (up to weekly symptoms, 40%), and poor sleepers (symptoms daily or almost daily, 12%). The heritability estimate for the cluster was 46% (95% confidence interval 41% to 50%). In a model adjusted for smoking, BMI, and depressive symptoms, the all-cause mortality of poor sleepers was elevated (excess mortality 55% in men and 51% in women). Further adjustment for sleep length, use of sleep promoting medications, and sleep apnea-related symptoms did not change the results. Insomnia-related symptoms were common in both genders. The symptoms and their clusters showed moderate heritability estimates. A significant association was found between poor sleep and risk of mortality, especially in those with somatic disease.

  5. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The objectives of the risk-based indicator programme. The characteristics of the risk-based indicators. The objectives of risk-based safety indicators - in monitoring safety; in PSA applications. What indicators? How to produce the risk based indicators? PSA requirements

  6. Building-related symptoms among U.S. office workers and risks factors for moisture and contamination: Preliminary analyses of U.S. EPA BASE Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendell, Mark J.; Cozen, Myrna

    2002-09-01

    The authors assessed relationships between health symptoms in office workers and risk factors related to moisture and contamination, using data collected from a representative sample of U.S. office buildings in the U.S. EPA BASE study. Methods: Analyses assessed associations between three types of weekly, workrelated symptoms-lower respiratory, mucous membrane, and neurologic-and risk factors for moisture or contamination in these office buildings. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate the strength of associations for these risk factors as odds ratios (ORs) adjusted for personal-level potential confounding variables related to demographics, health, job, and workspace. A number of risk factors were associated (e.g., 95% confidence limits excluded 1.0) significantly with small to moderate increases in one or more symptom outcomes. Significantly elevated ORs for mucous membrane symptoms were associated with the following risk factors: presence of humidification system in good condition versus none (OR = 1.4); air handler inspection annually versus daily (OR = 1.6); current water damage in the building (OR = 1.2); and less than daily vacuuming in study space (OR = 1.2). Significantly elevated ORs for lower respiratory symptoms were associated with: air handler inspection annually versus daily (OR = 2.0); air handler inspection less than daily but at least semi-annually (OR=1.6); less than daily cleaning of offices (1.7); and less than daily vacuuming of the study space (OR = 1.4). Only two statistically significant risk factors for neurologic symptoms were identified: presence of any humidification system versus none (OR = 1.3); and less than daily vacuuming of the study space (OR = 1.3). Dirty cooling coils, dirty or poorly draining drain pans, and standing water near outdoor air intakes, evaluated by inspection, were not identified as risk factors in these analyses, despite predictions based on previous findings elsewhere, except that very

  7. Clinical risk factors related to failures with zirconia-based restorations: an up to 9-year retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenig, Vinciane; Vanheusden, Alain J; Le Goff, Stéphane O; Mainjot, Amélie K

    2013-12-01

    The first objective of this study was to retrospectively evaluate zirconia-based restorations (ZBR). The second was to correlate failures with clinical parameters and to identify and to analyse chipping failures using fractographic analysis. 147 ZBR (tooth- and implant-supported crowns and fixed partial dentures (FPDs)) were evaluated after a mean observation period of 41.5 ± 31.8 months. Accessorily, zirconia implant abutments (n=46) were also observed. The technical (USPHS criteria) and the biological outcomes of the ZBR were evaluated. Occlusal risk factors were examined: occlusal relationships, parafunctional habits, and the presence of occlusal nightguard. SEM fractographic analysis was performed using the intra-oral replica technique. The survival rate of crowns and FPDs was 93.2%, the success rate was 81.63% and the 9-year Kaplan-Meier estimated success rate was 52.66%. The chipping rate was 15% and the framework fracture rate was 2.7%. Most fractographic analyses revealed that veneer fractures originated from occlusal surface roughness. Several parameters were shown to significantly influence veneer fracture: the absence of occlusal nightguard (p=0.0048), the presence of a ceramic restoration as an antagonist (p=0.013), the presence of parafunctional activity (p=0.018), and the presence of implants as support (p=0.026). The implant abutments success rate was 100%. The results of the present study confirm that chipping is the first cause of ZBR failure. They also underline the importance of clinical parameters in regards to the explanation of this complex problem. This issue should be considered in future prospective clinical studies. Practitioners can reduce chipping failures by taking into account several risk parameters, such as the presence of a ceramic restoration as an antagonist, the presence of parafunctional activity and the presence of implants as support. The use of an occlusal nightguard can also decrease failure rate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier

  8. Existing Regulatory Approaches to Reducing Exposures to Chemical- and Product-Based Risk and Their Applicability to Diet-Related Chronic Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Deborah A; Knopman, Debra S

    2018-04-17

    We aimed to identify and categorize the types of policies that have been adopted to protect Americans from harmful exposures that could also be relevant for addressing diet-related chronic diseases. This article examines and categorizes the rationales behind government regulation. Our interest in the historical analysis is to inform judgments about how best to address newly emergent risks involving diet-related chronic disease within existing regulatory and information-based frameworks. We assessed exemplars of regulation with respect to harmful exposures from air, water, and food, as well as regulations that are intended to modify voluntary behaviors. Following the comparative analysis, we explored how exposures that lead to diet-related chronic diseases among the general population fit within models of regulation adopted for other comparable risks. We identified five rationales and five approaches that protect people from harmful exposures. Reasons for regulation include: protection from involuntary exposure to risk, high risk of death or chronic illness, ubiquity of risk, counteraction to limit compulsive behaviors, and promotion of population health. Regulatory approaches include: mandatory limits on use, mandatory limits on exposure, mandatory controls on quality, mandatory labeling, and voluntary guidance. In contrast to the use of mandates, the prevention of diet-related chronic diseases thus far has largely relied on information-only approaches and voluntary adoption of guidelines. There is ample precedent for mandatory regulatory approaches that could address harms related to exposure to unhealthy diets, but several barriers to action would need to be overcome. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Evaluating the effects of community-based organization engagement on HIV and AIDS-related risk behavior in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riehman, Kara S; Kakietek, Jakub; Manteuffel, Brigitte A; Rodriguez-García, Rosalía; Bonnel, Rene; N'Jie, N'Della; Godoy-Garraza, Lucas; Orago, Alloys; Murithi, Patrick; Fruh, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    International donors have increasingly shifted AIDS funding directly to community-based organizations (CBOs) with the assumption that responding to the epidemic is best achieved at the community level. The World Bank, ICF Macro, and the National Council for Population and Development in Kenya, conducted a study to evaluate the community response in Kenya. The study used a quasi-experimental design comparing seven study communities and seven comparison communities in Nyanza Province and Western Province. We examined the impact of CBO activity on individual and community-level outcomes, including HIV knowledge, awareness and perceptions, sexual risk behavior, and social transformation (gender ideology and social capital). The study consisted of two components: a household survey conducted in all 14 communities, and qualitative data collected in a subset of communities. Individuals in communities with higher CBO engagement were significantly more likely to have reported consistent condom use. Higher CBO engagement was associated with some measures of social capital, including participation in local and national elections, and participation in electoral campaigns. CBOs provide added value in addressing the HIV and AIDS epidemic in very targeted and specific ways that are closely tied to the services they provide (e.g., prevention education); thus, increasing CBO engagement can be an effective measure in scaling up prevention efforts in those areas.

  10. Association of bariatric surgery with risk of acute care use for hypertension-related disease in obese adults: population-based self-controlled case series study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimada, Yuichi J; Tsugawa, Yusuke; Iso, Hiroyasu; Brown, David F M; Hasegawa, Kohei

    2017-08-23

    Hypertension carries a large societal burden. Obesity is known as a risk factor for hypertension. However, little is known as to whether weight loss interventions reduce the risk of hypertension-related adverse events, such as acute care use (emergency department [ED] visit and/or unplanned hospitalization). We used bariatric surgery as an instrument for investigating the effect of large weight reduction on the risk of acute care use for hypertension-related disease in obese adults with hypertension. We performed a self-controlled case series study of obese patients with hypertension who underwent bariatric surgery using population-based ED and inpatient databases that recorded every bariatric surgery, ED visit, and hospitalization in three states (California, Florida, and Nebraska) from 2005 to 2011. The primary outcome was acute care use for hypertension-related disease. We used conditional logistic regression to compare each patient's risk of the outcome event during sequential 12-month periods, using pre-surgery months 13-24 as the reference period. We identified 980 obese patients with hypertension who underwent bariatric surgery. The median age was 48 years (interquartile range, 40-56 years), 74% were female, and 55% were non-Hispanic white. During the reference period, 17.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.4-20.2%) had a primary outcome event. The risk remained unchanged in the subsequent 12-month pre-surgery period (18.2% [95% CI, 15.7-20.6%]; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.02 [95% CI, 0.83-1.27]; P = 0.83). In the first 12-month period after bariatric surgery, the risk significantly decreased (10.5% [8.6-12.4%]; aOR 0.58 [95% CI, 0.45-0.74]; P bariatric surgery (12.9% [95% CI, 10.8-15.0%]; aOR 0.71 [95% CI, 0.57-0.90]; P = 0.005). By contrast, there was no significant reduction in the risk among obese patients who underwent non-bariatric surgery (i.e., cholecystectomy, hysterectomy, spinal fusion, or mastectomy). In this population-based study of

  11. Regular physical activity modifies smoking-related lung function decline and reduces risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a population-based cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia-Aymerich, J; Lange, Peter; Benet, M

    2007-01-01

    RATIONALE: We have previously reported that regular physical activity reduces risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation. We hypothesized that higher levels of regular physical activity could reduce the risk of COPD by modifying smoking-related lung function decline....... OBJECTIVE: To estimate the longitudinal association between regular physical activity and FEV(1) and FVC decline and COPD risk. METHODS: A population-based sample (n = 6,790) was recruited and assessed with respect to physical activity, smoking, lung function, and other covariates, in Copenhagen in 1981....../yr of FEV(1), P-for-trend = 0.006, and +2.6 and +7.7 ml/yr of FVC, P-for-trend function decline. Active smokers with moderate to high physical activity had...

  12. Risk-based regulation: Challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    Over the last twenty years, man has witnessed a gradual but steady movement toward increased usage of risk-based methods and results in the regulatory process. The ''risk perspective'' as a supportive view to existing (non-risk-based or deterministic) information used in decision making has a firm foothold now in most countries that regulate nuclear power. Furthermore, in the areas outside the nuclear power field, such as health risk assessment, risk-based information is used increasingly to make decisions on potential impacts of chemical, biological, and radiological exposures. Some of the principal concepts and issues that are pertinent to risk-based regulation are reviewed. There is a growing interest in most countries in the use of risk-based methods and results to facilitate decision-making associated with regulatory processes. A summary is presented of the challenges and opportunities related to expanded use of risk-based regulation

  13. Risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The Configuration Control; The Risk-based Configuration Control (during power operation mode, and during shutdown mode). PSA requirements. Use of Risk-based Configuration Control System. Configuration Management (basic elements, benefits, information requirements)

  14. High-dose B-vitamin supplements and risk for age-related cataract: a population-based prospective study of men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selin, Jinjin Z; Lindblad, Birgitta E; Bottai, Matteo; Morgenstern, Ralf; Wolk, Alicja

    2017-07-01

    Previous studies that have investigated the association between B-vitamin supplement use and risk for cataract yield conflicting results. The aim of this study was to examine the association between use of high-dose B-vitamin supplements (approximately 10 times recommended daily intake) and risk for age-related cataract in a population-based prospective study of 13 757 women from the Swedish Mammography Cohort and 22 823 men from the Cohort of Swedish Men. Dietary supplement use and potential confounders were assessed using a questionnaire at baseline. Information on cataract diagnosis and extraction was obtained through linkage to registers. During the follow-up period between January 1998 and December 2011, we identified 8395 cataract cases (3851 for women and 4544 for men). The use of B vitamins plus other supplements and B vitamins only was associated with 9 % (95 % CI 2, 17) and 27 % (95 % CI 12, 43) increased risk for cataract, respectively. The hazard ratios for use of B vitamins only and risk for cataract stratified by different age groups were as follows: B-vitamin supplements was associated with an increased risk for cataract. This association might be confined to younger participants.

  15. The Influence of Alcohol-Related Cognitions on Personality-Based Risk for Alcohol Use during Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekman, Nicole M.; Cummins, Kevin; Brown, Sandra A.

    2011-01-01

    This study examines whether expectancies about the impact of not drinking or reducing alcohol use and perceptions of peer alcohol use partially mediated risk incurred by sensation seeking for adolescent alcohol involvement. High school drinkers (N = 3,153) completed a survey assessing substance use, sensation seeking, perceived peer alcohol use,…

  16. Alcohol Consumption in Relation to Risk and Severity of Chronic Widespread Pain: Results From a UK Population‐Based Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beasley, Marcus; Prescott, Gordon J.; McNamee, Paul; Hannaford, Philip C.; McBeth, John; Lovell, Karina; Keeley, Phil; Symmons, Deborah P. M.; Woby, Steve; Norrie, John

    2015-01-01

    Objective To determine whether the reported level of alcohol consumption is associated with the likelihood of reporting chronic widespread pain (CWP) and, among persons with CWP, the associated disability. Methods In a population‐based study in 2 areas of the UK, participants self‐completed a postal questionnaire. They were classified according to whether they met the American College of Rheumatology definition of CWP and whether the pain was disabling (Chronic Pain Grade III or IV). They reported their usual level of alcohol consumption. Potential confounding factors on which information was available included age, sex, cigarette smoking, employment status, self‐reported weight and height, and level of deprivation. Results A total of 13,574 persons participated (mean age 55 years, 57% women) of whom 2,239 (16.5%) had CWP; 28% reported never regularly consuming alcohol, 28% reported consuming up to 5 units/week, 20% reported 6–10 units/week, and 24% reported >10 units/week. Among persons with CWP, disability was strongly linked to level of alcohol consumption. Prevalence of disability decreased with increasing alcohol consumption up to 35 units/week (odds ratio [OR]21–35 units alcohol/week versus never drinkers 0.33 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.19–0.58]) adjusted for confounders. A similar relationship was found between reporting CWP and level of alcohol consumption (adjusted OR21–35 units alcohol/week versus never drinkers 0.76 [95% CI 0.61–0.94]). Conclusion This study has demonstrated strong associations between level of alcohol consumption and both CWP and related disabilities. However, the available evidence does not allow us to conclude that the association is causal. The strength of the associations means that specific studies to examine this potential relationship are warranted. PMID:26212017

  17. Polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS), related symptoms/sequelae, and breast cancer risk in a population-based case-control study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jayeon; Mersereau, Jennifer E.; Khankari, Nikhil; Bradshaw, Patrick T.; McCullough, Lauren E.; Cleveland, Rebecca; Shantakumar, Sumitra; Teitelbuam, Susan L.; Neugut, Alfred I.; Senie, Ruby T.; Gammon, Marilie D.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Despite the overlap between the clinical symptoms/sequelae of polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) and many known reproductive risk factors for breast cancer, the relationship between PCOS and breast cancer remains unclear, possibly because of the complex heterogeneity and challenges in diagnosing PCOS over time. We hypothesized that PCOS, specific PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae, or clusters of PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae, may be differentially associated with pre- vs. postmenopausal breast cancer risk. Materials and Methods Cases were 1,508 women newly diagnosed with a first primary in situ or invasive breast, and the 1,556 population-based controls were frequency-matched by age. Results History of physician-diagnosed PCOS was reported by 2.2% (n=67), among whom oral contraceptive (OC) use, irregular menstruation, and infertility due to ovulatory dysfunction were common. Using unconditional logistic regression, adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for PCOS were increased for premenopausal [2.74 (1.13, 6.63)], but not post-menopausal breast cancer [0.87 (0.44, 1.71)]. We used cluster analysis to investigate whether risk among all women varied by PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae, such as reproductive irregularities, OC use, and components of insulin resistance. In the cluster analysis, odds ratios were elevated among premenopausal women who had a history of OC use and no ovulatory dysfunction [1.39 (1.03, 1.88)], compared to those with fewer number of PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae. Conclusion PCOS, and associated PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae including OC use, may play a role in the development of premenopausal breast cancer. Our findings require confirmation in studies with a larger number of premenopausal women with systematically applied diagnostic criteria for PCOS. PMID:26797454

  18. Polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS), related symptoms/sequelae, and breast cancer risk in a population-based case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jayeon; Mersereau, Jennifer E; Khankari, Nikhil; Bradshaw, Patrick T; McCullough, Lauren E; Cleveland, Rebecca; Shantakumar, Sumitra; Teitelbuam, Susan L; Neugut, Alfred I; Senie, Ruby T; Gammon, Marilie D

    2016-03-01

    Despite the overlap between the clinical symptoms/sequelae of polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) and many known reproductive risk factors for breast cancer, the relationship between PCOS and breast cancer remains unclear, possibly because of the complex heterogeneity and challenges in diagnosing PCOS over time. We hypothesized that PCOS, specific PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae, or clusters of PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae may be differentially associated with pre- versus postmenopausal breast cancer risk. Cases were 1,508 women newly diagnosed with a first primary in situ or invasive breast, and the 1,556 population-based controls were frequency-matched by age. History of physician-diagnosed PCOS was reported by 2.2 % (n = 67), among whom oral contraceptive (OC) use, irregular menstruation, and infertility due to ovulatory dysfunction were common. Using unconditional logistic regression, adjusted odds ratios (95 % CI) for PCOS were increased for premenopausal [2.74 (1.13, 6.63)], but not postmenopausal breast cancer [0.87 (0.44, 1.71)]. We used cluster analysis to investigate whether risk among all women varied by PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae, such as reproductive irregularities, OC use, and components of insulin resistance. In the cluster analysis, odds ratios were elevated among premenopausal women who had a history of OC use and no ovulatory dysfunction [1.39 (1.03, 1.88)], compared to those with fewer number of PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae. PCOS and associated PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae including OC use may play a role in the development of premenopausal breast cancer. Our findings require confirmation in studies with a larger number of premenopausal women with systematically applied diagnostic criteria for PCOS.

  19. Endogenous and Antipsychotic-Related Risks for Diabetes Mellitus in Young People With Schizophrenia: A Danish Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajkumar, Anto P; Horsdal, Henriette Thisted; Wimberley, Theresa; Cohen, Dan; Mors, Ole; Børglum, Anders D; Gasse, Christiane

    2017-07-01

    Diabetes mellitus contributes to excessive cardiovascular deaths and reduced life expectancy in schizophrenia. This population-based cohort study investigated the endogenous risk for diabetes in antipsychotic-naive schizophrenia and evaluated the risks added by starting antipsychotic treatment in people with schizophrenia. The study followed all people born in Denmark on or after Jan. 1, 1977, until Jan. 1, 2013 (N=2,736,510). The Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register ascertained schizophrenia diagnoses. The Danish National Prescription Registry provided data on prescriptions of antipsychotics. Diabetes was ascertained from the Danish National Patient Register and Danish National Prescription Registry. The authors estimated the endogenous and antipsychotic-related risks for diabetes by using Cox proportional hazards regression models, while accounting for potential confounders. Of the cohort members, 14,118 (0.52%) developed diabetes, and 8,945 (0.33%) developed schizophrenia during follow-up (49,582,279 person-years). The adjusted hazard ratio for diabetes was 3.07 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.71-5.41) in antipsychotic-naive schizophrenia compared with the general population. The risk for diabetes after starting antipsychotic treatment was significantly higher (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.64; 95% CI, 1.95-6.82) than the risk in antipsychotic-naive schizophrenia, after adjustment for family history of diabetes and other potential confounders. First-line treatment with either first-generation antipsychotics (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.06; 95% CI, 1.32-7.05) or second-generation antipsychotics (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.44; 95% CI, 1.73-6.83) increased the risk for diabetes without a statistically significant difference. Appropriate sensitivity analyses limited to type 2 diabetes corroborated these results. Schizophrenia confers a high endogenous risk for diabetes, and the risk is further increased by both first-generation and second-generation antipsychotics

  20. Risk Aversion Relates to Cognitive Ability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2016-01-01

    Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making, rather than to risk preferences....

  1. Risk aversion relates to cognitive ability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making rather than to risk preferences....

  2. Young people’s risk of suicide attempts in relation to parental death: A population-based register study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Erik; Jakobsen, Ida Skytte

    2011-01-01

    Background:  The objective of this study was to examine the association between the death of a biological parent and subsequent suicide attempts by young people (aged 10–22 years), and to explore sociodemographic factors as modifying factors in the process. Methods:  The study used a nested case......–control design. The full study population was obtained from the Danish longitudinal registers and included all individuals born between 1983 and 1989 (n = 403,431 individuals). The 3,465 registered suicide attempters from that group were matched with 75,300 population-based control subjects. Potentially...

  3. Effects of risk-based multifactorial fall prevention on health-related quality of life among the community-dwelling aged: a randomized controlled trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isoaho Raimo

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study aimed to assess the effects of a risk-based, multifactorial fall prevention programme on health-related quality of life among the community-dwelling aged who had fallen at least once during the previous 12 months. Methods The study is a part of a single-centre, risk-based, multifactorial randomised controlled trial. The intervention lasted for 12 months and consisted of a geriatric assessment, guidance and treatment, individual instruction in fall prevention, group exercise, lectures on themes related to falling, psychosocial group activities and home exercise. Of the total study population (n = 591, 97% of eligible subjects, 513(251 in the intervention group and 262 in the control group participated in this study. The effect of the intervention on quality of life was measured using the 15D health-related quality of life instrument consisting of 15 dimensions. The data were analysed using the chi-square test or Fisher's exact test, the Mann-Whitney U-test and logistic regression. Results In men, the results showed significant differences in the changes between the intervention and control groups in depression (p = 0.017 and distress (p = 0.029 and marginally significant differences in usual activities (p = 0.058 and sexual activity (p = 0.051. In women, significant differences in the changes between the groups were found in usual activities (p = 0.005 and discomfort/symptoms (p = 0.047. For the subjects aged 65 to 74 years, significant differences in the changes between the groups were seen in distress (p = 0.037 among men and in usual activities (p = 0.011 among women. All improvements were in favour of the intervention group. Conclusion Fall prevention produced positive effects on some dimensions of health-related quality of life in the community-dwelling aged. Men benefited more than women.

  4. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sedlak, J.

    2001-12-01

    The report is structured as follows: 1. Risk-based safety indicators: Typology of risk-based indicators (RBIs); Tools for defining RBIs; Requirements for the PSA model; Data sources for RBIs; Types of risks monitored; RBIs and operational safety indicators; Feedback from operating experience; PSO model modification for RBIs; RBI categorization; RBI assessment; RBI applications; Suitable RBI applications. 2. Proposal for risk-based indicators: Acquiring information from operational experience; Method of acquiring safety relevance coefficients for the systems from a PSA model; Indicator definitions; On-line indicators. 3. Annex: Application of RBIs worldwide. (P.A.)

  5. Ten-year incident osteoporosis-related fractures in the population-based Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study - comparing site and age-specific risks in women and men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prior, Jerilynn C; Langsetmo, Lisa; Lentle, Brian C; Berger, Claudie; Goltzman, David; Kovacs, Christopher S; Kaiser, Stephanie M; Adachi, Jonathan D; Papaioannou, Alexandra; Anastassiades, Tassos; Towheed, Tanveer; Josse, Robert G; Brown, Jacques P; Leslie, William D; Kreiger, Nancy

    2015-02-01

    Population-based incident fracture data aid fracture prevention and therapy decisions. Our purpose was to describe 10-year site-specific cumulative fracture incidence by sex, age at baseline, and degree of trauma with/without consideration of competing mortality in the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study adult cohort. Incident fractures and mortality were identified by annual postal questionnaires to the participant or proxy respondent. Date, site and circumstance of fracture were gathered from structured interviews and medical records. Fracture analyses were stratified by sex and age at baseline and used both Kaplan-Meier and competing mortality methods. The baseline (1995-97) cohort included 6314 women and 2789 men (aged 25-84 years; mean±SD 62±12 and 59±14, respectively), with 4322 (68%) women and 1732 (62%) men followed to year-10. At least one incident fracture occurred for 930 women (14%) and 247 men (9%). Competing mortality exceeded fracture risk for men aged 65+years at baseline. Age was a strong predictor of incident fractures especially fragility fractures, with higher age gradients for women vs. men. Major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) (hip, clinical spine, forearm, humerus) accounted for 41-74% of fracture risk by sex/age strata; in women all MOF sites showed age-related increases but in men only hip was clearly age-related. The most common fractures were the forearm for women and the ribs for men. Hip fracture incidence was the highest for the 75-84 year baseline age-group with no significant difference between women 7.0% (95% CI 5.3, 8.9) and men 7.0% (95% CI 4.4, 10.3). There are sex differences in the predominant sites and age-gradients of fracture. In older men, competing mortality exceeds cumulative fracture risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

    1990-01-01

    When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate

  7. Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk" | Durrheim | South African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    South African Family Practice. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 45, No 8 (2003) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk". DN Durrheim ...

  8. Effectiveness of reducing the risk of eating-related problems using the German school-based intervention program, "Torera", for preadolescent boys and girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, U; Schaefer, J-M; Wick, K; Brix, C; Bormann, B; Sowa, M; Schwartze, D; Strauss, B

    2014-08-01

    Representative surveys indicate that eating disorders are an increasing problem, especially among (pre)adolescents. We assessed the effects of a German school-based primary prevention program ("Torera") for seventh graders. Torera especially relates to pathological eating behavior in the realm of bulimia nervosa or binge eating disorder. The program is built upon two previously evaluated modules for sixth graders with a gender-specific adaption. The coeducational intervention involves nine manual-guided lessons touching a wide range of eating-related problems. Twenty-two Thuringian secondary schools (n = 256 boys and 277 girls, aged 11-13 years at baseline) participated in a trial with 2 control groups (untreated and pretreated) with pre-post assessment. Primary outcomes were conspicuous eating behavior and body self-esteem, measured by standardized questionnaires (SCOFF, EAT-26D, and FBeK). Girls and students at risk showed significant improvement with small (d = 0.35) to medium (d = 0.66) effect sizes on eating behavior, significantly mediated by body self-esteem. Boys only improved with respect to eating attitudes, revealing a small effect size (d = 0.35). With relatively low implementation costs (about 2.50 per student), Torera provides an efficient model for reducing risky eating behavior and strengthening body self-esteem without negative side effects. To improve the effectiveness of the intervention, further research efforts focusing on at-risk groups (secondary prevention) and structural actions for prevention (e.g., offering healthy school catering) are needed.

  9. Maternal overweight and obesity and risks of severe birth-asphyxia-related complications in term infants: a population-based cohort study in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, Martina; Johansson, Stefan; Villamor, Eduardo; Cnattingius, Sven

    2014-05-01

    Maternal overweight and obesity increase risks of pregnancy and delivery complications and neonatal mortality, but the mechanisms are unclear. The objective of the study was to investigate associations between maternal body mass index (BMI) in early pregnancy and severe asphyxia-related outcomes in infants delivered at term (≥37 weeks). A nation-wide Swedish cohort study based on data from the Medical Birth Register included all live singleton term births in Sweden between 1992 and 2010. Logistic regression analyses were used to obtain odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs for Apgar scores between 0 and 3 at 5 and 10 minutes, meconium aspiration syndrome, and neonatal seizures, adjusted for maternal height, maternal age, parity, mother's smoking habits, education, country of birth, and year of infant birth. Among 1,764,403 term births, 86% had data on early pregnancy BMI and Apgar scores. There were 1,380 infants who had Apgar score 0-3 at 5 minutes (absolute risk  = 0.8 per 1,000) and 894 had Apgar score 0-3 at 10 minutes (absolute risk  = 0.5 per 1,000). Compared with infants of mothers with normal BMI (18.5-24.9), the adjusted ORs (95% CI) for Apgar scores 0-3 at 10 minutes were as follows: BMI 25-29.9: 1.32 (1.10-1.58); BMI 30-34.9: 1.57 (1.20-2.07); BMI 35-39.9: 1.80 (1.15-2.82); and BMI ≥40: 3.41 (1.91-6.09). The ORs for Apgar scores 0-3 at 5 minutes, meconium aspiration, and neonatal seizures increased similarly with maternal BMI. A study limitation was lack of data on effects of obstetric interventions and neonatal resuscitation efforts. Risks of severe asphyxia-related outcomes in term infants increase with maternal overweight and obesity. Given the high prevalence of the exposure and the severity of the outcomes studied, the results are of potential public health relevance and should be confirmed in other populations. Prevention of overweight and obesity in women of reproductive age is important to improve perinatal health.

  10. Periconceptional folic acid associated with an increased risk of oral clefts relative to non-folate related malformations in the Northern Netherlands: a population based case-control study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rozendaal, Anna M.; Essen, Anthonie J. van; Meerman, Gerard J. te; Bakker, Marian K.; Biezen, Jan J. van der; Goorhuis-Brouwer, Sieneke M.; Vermeij-Keers, Christl; Walle, Hermien E. K. de

    2013-01-01

    Periconceptional folic acid has been associated with a reduced risk of neural tube defects, but findings on its effect in oral clefts are largely inconclusive. This case-control study assesses the effects of periconceptional folic acid on cleft risk, using complementary data from the Dutch Oral Cleft Registry and a population-based birth defects registry (Eurocat) of children and foetuses born in the Northern Netherlands between 1997 and 2009. Cases were live-born infants with non-syndromic clefts (n = 367) and controls were infants or foetuses with chromosomal/syndromal (n = 924) or non-folate related anomalies (n = 2,021). We analyzed type/timing/duration of supplement use related to traditional cleft categories as well as to their timing (early/late embryonic periods) and underlying embryological processes (fusion/differentiation defects). Consistent supplement use during the aetiologically relevant period (weeks 0–12 postconception) was associated with an increased risk of clefts (adjusted odds ratio 1.72, 95 % confidence interval 1.19–2.49), especially of cleft lip/alveolus (3.16, 1.69–5.91). Further analysis systematically showed twofold to threefold increased risks for late differentiation defects—mainly clefts of the lip/alveolus—with no significant associations for early/late fusion defects. Effects were attributable to folic acid and not to other multivitamin components, and inclusion of partial use (not covering the complete aetiologically relevant period) generally weakened associations. In conclusion, this study presents several lines of evidence indicating that periconceptional folic acid in the Northern Netherlands is associated with an increased risk of clefts, in particular of cleft lip/alveolus. This association is strengthened by the specificity, consistency, systematic pattern, and duration of exposure-response relationship of our findings, underlining the need to evaluate public health strategies regarding folic acid and to

  11. Risk sharing relations and enforcement mechanisms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barr, A.; Dekker, M.; Fafchamps, M.

    2008-01-01

    We investigate whether the set of available enforcement mechanisms affects the formation of risk sharing relations by applying dyadic regression analysis to data from a specifically designed behavioural experiment, two surveys and a genealogical mapping exercise. During the experiment participants

  12. Human Immunodeficiency Virus Related Knowledge, Risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There was poor HIV preventive practices; indicating ... Gyawali, et al.: HIV related knowledge, risk perception and practices among married women. Annals of Medical .... of this study correspond to the Indian, Nigerian and Iranian studies cited ...

  13. Roadway related tort liability and risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    This workbook provide government employees background information related to tort liability and risk management. Past experience with lawsuits against government entities are summarized. The reasons for the lawsuits and results are analyzed. The obje...

  14. The minimum knowledge base for predicting organ-at-risk dose-volume levels and plan-related complications in IMRT planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Hao H; D'Souza, Warren D; Meyer, Robert R; Shi Leyuan

    2010-01-01

    IMRT treatment planning requires consideration of two competing objectives: achieving the required amount of radiation for the planning target volume and minimizing the amount of radiation delivered to all other tissues. It is important for planners to understand the tradeoff between competing factors so that the time-consuming human interaction loop (plan-evaluate-modify) can be eliminated. Treatment-plan-surface models have been proposed as a decision support tool to aid treatment planners and clinicians in choosing between rival treatment plans in a multi-plan environment. In this paper, an empirical approach is introduced to determine the minimum number of treatment plans (minimum knowledge base) required to build accurate representations of the IMRT plan surface in order to predict organ-at-risk (OAR) dose-volume (DV) levels and complications as a function of input DV constraint settings corresponding to all involved OARs in the plan. We have tested our approach on five head and neck patients and five whole pelvis/prostate patients. Our results suggest that approximately 30 plans were sufficient to predict DV levels with less than 3% relative error in both head and neck and whole pelvis/prostate cases. In addition, approximately 30-60 plans were sufficient to predict saliva flow rate with less than 2% relative error and to classify rectal bleeding with an accuracy of 90%.

  15. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

    2000-01-01

    Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

  16. Addressing adolescents’ risk and protective factors related to risky behaviours: Findings from a school-based peer-education evaluation in the Western Cape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Furzana Timol

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Peer-education programmes aim to bring about attitudinal and behavioural changes in their target audience. In the South African educational context, peer education is a favoured approach in dealing with issues such as HIV and AIDS, sexual decision-making and substance misuse. Given the reliance on peer-education programmes in the educational system, it is important to establish how well they are working. This study aims to assess the effect of an extensive, structured, time-limited, curriculum-based, peer-led educational programme on first-year high school learners in public schools in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. Method: The curriculum called ‘Listen Up’ addresses issues such as supporting peers, sexual decision-making, healthy relationships, HIV risk, alcohol misuse and unwanted pregnancy in seven structured sessions. The programme targeted adolescents in Grade 8 growing up in what are considered to be risky environments in public schools in the Western Cape during 2012 and 2013. The intervention was evaluated based on 10 scales sourced from published literature related to the outcome indicators of future orientation, sensation-seeking, self-efficacy in sexual relations, HIV transmission knowledge, HIV prevention knowledge, HIV attitudes, sexual attitudes, decision-making, healthy relationships and social support. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse demographic and community characteristics and analyses of variance were used to detect differences between groups. The surveys were administered to a total of 7709 learners across three waves of the study in 27 peer intervention schools and eight control schools. Results: Immediately post intervention, statistically significant differences were noted for the intervention schools when compared to their baseline levels on measures of future orientation, self-efficacy in sexual relations, knowledge regarding HIV transmission, knowledge regarding HIV prevention and

  17. Addressing adolescents' risk and protective factors related to risky behaviours: Findings from a school-based peer-education evaluation in the Western Cape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timol, Furzana; Vawda, Mohammed Yacoob; Bhana, Arvin; Moolman, Benita; Makoae, Mokhantso; Swartz, Sharlene

    2016-12-01

    Peer-education programmes aim to bring about attitudinal and behavioural changes in their target audience. In the South African educational context, peer education is a favoured approach in dealing with issues such as HIV and AIDS, sexual decision-making and substance misuse. Given the reliance on peer-education programmes in the educational system, it is important to establish how well they are working. This study aims to assess the effect of an extensive, structured, time-limited, curriculum-based, peer-led educational programme on first-year high school learners in public schools in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. The curriculum called 'Listen Up' addresses issues such as supporting peers, sexual decision-making, healthy relationships, HIV risk, alcohol misuse and unwanted pregnancy in seven structured sessions. The programme targeted adolescents in Grade 8 growing up in what are considered to be risky environments in public schools in the Western Cape during 2012 and 2013. The intervention was evaluated based on 10 scales sourced from published literature related to the outcome indicators of future orientation, sensation-seeking, self-efficacy in sexual relations, HIV transmission knowledge, HIV prevention knowledge, HIV attitudes, sexual attitudes, decision-making, healthy relationships and social support. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse demographic and community characteristics and analyses of variance were used to detect differences between groups. The surveys were administered to a total of 7709 learners across three waves of the study in 27 peer intervention schools and eight control schools. Immediately post intervention, statistically significant differences were noted for the intervention schools when compared to their baseline levels on measures of future orientation, self-efficacy in sexual relations, knowledge regarding HIV transmission, knowledge regarding HIV prevention and knowledge in terms of healthy relationships

  18. Geochemical behavior and environmental risks related to the use of abandoned base-metal tailings as construction material in the upper-Moulouya district, Morocco.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argane, R; El Adnani, M; Benzaazoua, M; Bouzahzah, H; Khalil, A; Hakkou, R; Taha, Y

    2016-01-01

    In some developing countries, base-metal residues that were abandoned in tailing ponds or impoundments are increasingly used as construction material without any control, engineering basis, or environmental concern. This uncontrolled reuse of mine tailings may constitute a new form of pollution risks for humans and ecosystems through metal leaching. Therefore, the aim of the current study is to assess mine drainage, metal mobility, and geochemical behavior of two abandoned mine tailings commonly used in the upper-Moulouya region (eastern Morocco) as fine aggregates for mortar preparation. Their detailed physical, chemical, and mineralogical properties were subsequently evaluated in the context of developing appropriate alternative reuses to replace their conventional disposal and limit their weathering exposure. The obtained results showed that both tailings contain relatively high quantities of residual metals and metalloids with lead (ranging between 3610 and 5940 mg/kg) being the major pollutant. However, the mineralogical investigations revealed the presence of abundant neutralizing minerals and low sulfide content which influence mine drainage geochemistry and subsequently lower metals mobility. In fact, leachate analyses from weathering cell kinetic tests showed neutral conditions and low sulfide oxidation rates. According to these results, the tailings used as construction material in the upper-Moulouya region have very low generating potential of contaminated effluents and their reuse as aggregates may constitute a sustainable alternative method for efficient tailing management.

  19. 77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    ...'' framework that includes (1) Risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk, and operational... default and credit quality migration risk for non-securitization credit products. With respect to... securitization positions, the revisions assign a specific risk- weighting factor based on the credit rating of a...

  20. 76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-11

    ... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

  1. Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

    1988-03-01

    This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

  2. High coffee consumption and different brewing methods in relation to postmenopausal endometrial cancer risk in the Norwegian women and cancer study: a population-based prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilyuk, Oxana; Braaten, Tonje; Skeie, Guri; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Dumeaux, Vanessa; Lund, Eiliv

    2014-03-25

    Coffee and its compounds have been proposed to inhibit endometrial carcinogenesis. Studies in the Norwegian population can be especially interesting due to the high coffee consumption and increasing incidence of endometrial cancer in the country. A total of 97 926 postmenopausal Norwegian women from the population-based prospective Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) Study, were included in the present analysis. We evaluated the general association between total coffee consumption and endometrial cancer risk as well as the possible impact of brewing method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to estimate risks, and heterogeneity tests were performed to compare brewing methods. During an average of 10.9 years of follow-up, 462 incident endometrial cancer cases were identified. After multivariate adjustment, significant risk reduction was found among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day of coffee with a hazard ratio of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.34-0.79). However, we did not observe a significant dose-response relationship. No significant heterogeneity in risk was found when comparing filtered and boiled coffee brewing methods. A reduction in endometrial cancer risk was observed in subgroup analyses among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day and had a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and in current smokers. These data suggest that in this population with high coffee consumption, endometrial cancer risk decreases in women consuming ≥8 cups/day, independent of brewing method.

  3. Age at natural menopause genetic risk score in relation to age at natural menopause and primary open-angle glaucoma in a US-based sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasquale, Louis R; Aschard, Hugues; Kang, Jae H; Bailey, Jessica N Cooke; Lindström, Sara; Chasman, Daniel I; Christen, William G; Allingham, R Rand; Ashley-Koch, Allison; Lee, Richard K; Moroi, Sayoko E; Brilliant, Murray H; Wollstein, Gadi; Schuman, Joel S; Fingert, John; Budenz, Donald L; Realini, Tony; Gaasterland, Terry; Gaasterland, Douglas; Scott, William K; Singh, Kuldev; Sit, Arthur J; Igo, Robert P; Song, Yeunjoo E; Hark, Lisa; Ritch, Robert; Rhee, Douglas J; Gulati, Vikas; Havens, Shane; Vollrath, Douglas; Zack, Donald J; Medeiros, Felipe; Weinreb, Robert N; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A; Liu, Yutao; Kraft, Peter; Richards, Julia E; Rosner, Bernard A; Hauser, Michael A; Haines, Jonathan L; Wiggs, Janey L

    2017-02-01

    Several attributes of female reproductive history, including age at natural menopause (ANM), have been related to primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). We assembled 18 previously reported common genetic variants that predict ANM to determine their association with ANM or POAG. Using data from the Nurses' Health Study (7,143 women), we validated the ANM weighted genetic risk score in relation to self-reported ANM. Subsequently, to assess the relation with POAG, we used data from 2,160 female POAG cases and 29,110 controls in the National Eye Institute Glaucoma Human Genetics Collaboration Heritable Overall Operational Database (NEIGHBORHOOD), which consists of 8 datasets with imputed genotypes to 5.6+ million markers. Associations with POAG were assessed in each dataset, and site-specific results were meta-analyzed using the inverse weighted variance method. The genetic risk score was associated with self-reported ANM (P = 2.2 × 10) and predicted 4.8% of the variance in ANM. The ANM genetic risk score was not associated with POAG (Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.002; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.998, 1.007; P = 0.28). No single genetic variant in the panel achieved nominal association with POAG (P ≥0.20). Compared to the middle 80 percent, there was also no association with the lowest 10 percentile or highest 90 percentile of genetic risk score with POAG (OR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.47, 1.21; P = 0.23 and OR = 1.10; 95% CI: 0.72, 1.69; P = 0.65, respectively). A genetic risk score predicting 4.8% of ANM variation was not related to POAG; thus, genetic determinants of ANM are unlikely to explain the previously reported association between the two phenotypes.

  4. Varied definitions of risk related to sensation seeking trait

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daastoel, P.Oe.U.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M.

    1999-01-01

    This pilot study is based on the assumption and the knowledge that previous results show that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. The risk definitions the subjects use have also been shown to be related to various educational interests. A related field of research has developed measures for Sensation Seeking personality trait, with four facets. Three independent groups of first year psychology students reported their normal definition of the word risk using one of three measurement formats. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was danger. Subjects who defined risk as the combination of probability and consequences tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale, as compared to those defining risk as the probability of an event

  5. Varied definitions of risk related to sensation seeking trait

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daastoel, P.Oe.U.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M. [Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway). Dept. of Psychology

    1999-12-01

    This pilot study is based on the assumption and the knowledge that previous results show that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. The risk definitions the subjects use have also been shown to be related to various educational interests. A related field of research has developed measures for Sensation Seeking personality trait, with four facets. Three independent groups of first year psychology students reported their normal definition of the word risk using one of three measurement formats. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was danger. Subjects who defined risk as the combination of probability and consequences tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale, as compared to those defining risk as the probability of an event.

  6. Death of a Close Relative and the Risk of Suicide in Sweden-A Large Scale Register-Based Case-Crossover Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna Mogensen

    Full Text Available Bereavement is thought to be a risk factor for suicide but the association has not been thoroughly investigated according to specific sensitive time periods and risk groups using a self-matched design. We aimed to 1 determine the risk of suicide within the first year after death of a close relative, 2 investigate if and how the risk changes within this time window and 3 determine if sex, age, and type of relationship, affect this association.A self-matched, case-crossover study was performed by linking Swedish registers. In total, 31 059 individuals with suicide between 1990 and 2011 were included. Different periods within the year prior to the suicide were compared with corresponding periods one year earlier in the same individual's life. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR and 95% confidence intervals (CI for suicide after death of a close relative.Increased ORs of suicide were seen during the first month, OR 1·77 (95% CI 1·35-2·34, and the first half-year, 1·27 (1·13-1·43. An even higher OR was found within the first week, 3·43 (1·89-6·22. Patterns were similar for women and men and across age groups. Death of a partner or child but not death of a sibling or parent was associated with a significantly increased suicide risk. The strongest association was seen after death of a partner in individuals aged 45 and older.These findings provide knowledge of sensitive time periods and at-risk groups in the early period of bereavement. Due to the use of a self-matched study design, methodological challenges of unmeasured residual confounding could be overcome.

  7. Evaluation of energy related risk acceptance (APHA energy task force)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, A.P.

    1977-01-01

    Living in a technological society with large energy requirements involves a number of related actities with attendant health risks, both to the working and to the general public. Therefore, the formulation of some general principles for risk acceptance is necessary. In addition to maximizing benefits and minimizing risk, relevant considerations must be made about the perception of risk as voluntary or involuntary, the number of persons collectively at risk at any one occasion, and the extent to which a risk is a familiar one. With regard to a given benefit, such as a given amount of energy, comparisons of the risks of alternate modes of production may be utilized. However, cost-benefit consideration is essential to the amelioration of current or prospective risks. This is unusual, since it is based on some estimate of the monetary value per premature death averted. It is proposed that increased longevity would be a more satisfactory measure. On a societal basis, large expenditures for additional energy-related pollution control do not appear justifiable since much larger, nonenergy-related health risks are relatively underaddressed. Knowledgeable health professionals could benefit the public by imparting authoritative information in this area

  8. Risk-based Strategy to Determine Testing Requirement for the Removal of Residual Process Reagents as Process-related Impurities in Bioprocesses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Jinshu; Li, Kim; Miller, Karen; Raghani, Anil

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to recommend a risk-based strategy for determining clearance testing requirements of the process reagents used in manufacturing biopharmaceutical products. The strategy takes account of four risk factors. Firstly, the process reagents are classified into two categories according to their safety profile and history of use: generally recognized as safe (GRAS) and potential safety concern (PSC) reagents. The clearance testing of GRAS reagents can be eliminated because of their safe use historically and process capability to remove these reagents. An estimated safety margin (Se) value, a ratio of the exposure limit to the estimated maximum reagent amount, is then used to evaluate the necessity for testing the PSC reagents at an early development stage. The Se value is calculated from two risk factors, the starting PSC reagent amount per maximum product dose (Me), and the exposure limit (Le). A worst-case scenario is assumed to estimate the Me value, that is common. The PSC reagent of interest is co-purified with the product and no clearance occurs throughout the entire purification process. No clearance testing is required for this PSC reagent if its Se value is ≥1; otherwise clearance testing is needed. Finally, the point of the process reagent introduction to the process is also considered in determining the necessity of the clearance testing for process reagents. How to use the measured safety margin as a criterion for determining PSC reagent testing at process characterization, process validation, and commercial production stages are also described. A large number of process reagents are used in the biopharmaceutical manufacturing to control the process performance. Clearance testing for all of the process reagents will be an enormous analytical task. In this article, a risk-based strategy is described to eliminate unnecessary clearance testing for majority of the process reagents using four risk factors. The risk factors included

  9. Assessment of Industry-Induced Urban Human Health Risks Related to Benzo[a]pyrene based on a Multimedia Fugacity Model: Case Study of Nanjing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linyu Xu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Large amounts of organic pollutants emitted from industries have accumulated and caused serious human health risks, especially in urban areas with rapid industrialization. This paper focused on the carcinogen benzo[a]pyrene (BaP from industrial effluent and gaseous emissions, and established a multi-pathway exposure model based on a Level IV multimedia fugacity model to analyze the human health risks in a city that has undergone rapid industrialization. In this study, GIS tools combined with land-use data was introduced to analyze smaller spatial scales so as to enhance the spatial resolution of the results. An uncertainty analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation was also conducted to illustrate the rationale of the probabilistic assessment mode rather than deterministic assessment. Finally, the results of the case study in Nanjing, China indicated the annual average human cancer risk induced by local industrial emissions during 2002–2008 (lowest at 1.99´10–6 in 2008 and highest at 3.34´10–6 in 2004, which was lower than the USEPA prescriptive level (1´10–6–1´10–4 but cannot be neglected in the long term. The study results could not only instruct the BaP health risk management but also help future health risk prediction and control.

  10. A Relative Ranking Approach for Nano-Enabled Applications to Improve Risk-Based Decision Making: A Case Study of Army Materiel

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-24

    accidental expo- sures to carbon nanotubes and copper flakes incorporated into energy and obscurant materiel by Army workers rank highest relative to...that inhalation from accidental exposures to carbon nanotubes and copper flakes incorporated into energy and obscurant materiel by Army workers rank... copper (Cu), and titanium (Ti) flakes used in smokes and obscurants ranked the highest on the risk scale for sce- narios primarily involving accidental

  11. Development and application of the Safe Performance Index as a risk-based methodology for identifying major hazard-related safety issues in underground coal mines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinilakodi, Harisha

    The underground coal mining industry has been under constant watch due to the high risk involved in its activities, and scrutiny increased because of the disasters that occurred in 2006-07. In the aftermath of the incidents, the U.S. Congress passed the Mine Improvement and New Emergency Response Act of 2006 (MINER Act), which strengthened the existing regulations and mandated new laws to address the various issues related to a safe working environment in the mines. Risk analysis in any form should be done on a regular basis to tackle the possibility of unwanted major hazard-related events such as explosions, outbursts, airbursts, inundations, spontaneous combustion, and roof fall instabilities. One of the responses by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) in 2007 involved a new pattern of violations (POV) process to target mines with a poor safety performance, specifically to improve their safety. However, the 2010 disaster (worst in 40 years) gave an impression that the collective effort of the industry, federal/state agencies, and researchers to achieve the goal of zero fatalities and serious injuries has gone awry. The Safe Performance Index (SPI) methodology developed in this research is a straight-forward, effective, transparent, and reproducible approach that can help in identifying and addressing some of the existing issues while targeting (poor safety performance) mines which need help. It combines three injury and three citation measures that are scaled to have an equal mean (5.0) in a balanced way with proportionate weighting factors (0.05, 0.15, 0.30) and overall normalizing factor (15) into a mine safety performance evaluation tool. It can be used to assess the relative safety-related risk of mines, including by mine-size category. Using 2008 and 2009 data, comparisons were made of SPI-associated, normalized safety performance measures across mine-size categories, with emphasis on small-mine safety performance as compared to large- and

  12. Work-related critical incidents in hospital-based health care providers and the risk of post-traumatic stress symptoms, anxiety, and depression: a meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, Jacoba; Lok, Anja; van 't Verlaat, Ellen; Duivenvoorden, Hugo J.; Bakker, Arnold B.; Smit, Bert J.

    2011-01-01

    This meta-analysis reviewed existing data on the impact of work-related critical incidents in hospital-based health care professionals. Work-related critical incidents may induce post-traumatic stress symptoms or even post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depression and may negatively

  13. Likelihood of early detection of breast cancer in relation to false-positive risk in life-time mammographic screening: population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otten, J D M; Fracheboud, J; den Heeten, G J; Otto, S J; Holland, R; de Koning, H J; Broeders, M J M; Verbeek, A L M

    2013-10-01

    Women require balanced, high-quality information when making an informed decision on screening benefits and harms before attending biennial mammographic screening. The cumulative risk of a false-positive recall and/or (small) screen-detected or interval cancer over 13 consecutive screening examinations for women aged 50 from the start of screening were estimated using data from the Nijmegen programme, the Netherlands. Women who underwent 13 successive screens in the period 1975-1976 had a 5.3% cumulative chance of a screen-detected cancer, with a 4.2% risk of at least one false-positive recall. The risk of being diagnosed with interval cancer was 3.7%. Two decades later, these estimates were 6.9%, 7.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The chance of detection of a small, favourable invasive breast cancer, anticipating a normal life-expectancy, rose from 2.3% to 3.7%. Extrapolation to digital screening mammography indicates that the proportion of false-positive results will rise to 16%. Dutch women about to participate in the screening programme can be reassured that the chance of false-positive recall in the Netherlands is relatively low. A new screening policy and improved mammography have increased the detection of an early screening carcinoma and lowering the risk of interval carcinoma.

  14. Cured meat, vegetables, and bean-curd foods in relation to childhood acute leukemia risk: a population based case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chen-Yu; Hsu, Yi-Hsiang; Wu, Ming-Tsang; Pan, Pi-Chen; Ho, Chi-Kung; Su, Li; Xu, Xin; Li, Yi; Christiani, David C

    2009-01-13

    Consumption of cured/smoked meat and fish leads to the formation of carcinogenic N-nitroso compounds in the acidic stomach. This study investigated whether consumed cured/smoked meat and fish, the major dietary resource for exposure to nitrites and nitrosamines, is associated with childhood acute leukemia. A population-based case-control study of Han Chinese between 2 and 20 years old was conducted in southern Taiwan. 145 acute leukemia cases and 370 age- and sex-matched controls were recruited between 1997 and 2005. Dietary data were obtained from a questionnaire. Multiple logistic regression models were used in data analyses. Consumption of cured/smoked meat and fish more than once a week was associated with an increased risk of acute leukemia (OR = 1.74; 95% CI: 1.15-2.64). Conversely, higher intake of vegetables (OR = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.37-0.83) and bean-curd (OR = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.34-0.89) was associated with a reduced risk. No statistically significant association was observed between leukemia risk and the consumption of pickled vegetables, fruits, and tea. Dietary exposure to cured/smoked meat and fish may be associated with leukemia risk through their contents of nitrites and nitrosamines among children and adolescents, and intake of vegetables and soy-bean curd may be protective.

  15. Information in relational data bases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abhyankar, R B

    1982-01-01

    A new knowledge representation scheme is proposed for representing incomplete information in relational data bases. The knowledge representation scheme introduces a novel convention for negative information based on modal logic and a novel data structure obtained by introducing tuple flags in the relational model of data. Standard and minimal forms are defined for relations conforming to the new data structure. The conventional relational operators, select, project and join, the redefined so they can be used to manipulate relations containing incomplete information. Conditions are presented for the lossless decomposition of relations containing incomplete information. 20 references.

  16. Risk considerations related to lung modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masse, R.; Cross, F.T.

    1989-01-01

    Improved lung models provide a more accurate assessment of dose from inhalation exposures and, therefore, more accurate dose-response relationships for risk evaluation and exposure limitation. Epidemiological data for externally irradiated persons indicate that the numbers of excess respiratory tract carcinomas differ in the upper airways, bronchi, and distal lung. Neither their histogenesis and anatomical location nor their progenitor cells are known with sufficient accuracy for accurate assessment of the microdosimetry. The nuclei of sensitive cells generally can be assumed to be distributed at random in the epithelium, beneath the mucus and tips of the beating cilia and cells. In stratified epithelia, basal cells may be considered the only cells at risk. Upper-airway tumors have been observed in both therapeutically irradiated patients and in Hiroshima-Nagasaki survivors. The current International Commission on Radiological Protection Lung-Model Task Group proposes that the upper airways and lung have a similar relative risk coefficient for cancer induction. The partition of the risk weighting factor, therefore, will be proportional to the spontaneous death rate from tumors, and 80% of the weighting factor for the respiratory tract should be attributed to the lung. For Weibel lung-model branching generations 0 to 16 and 17 to 23, the Task Group proposes an 80/20 partition of the risk, i.e., 64% and 16%, respectively, of the total risk. Regarding risk in animals, recent data in rats indicate a significantly lower effectiveness for lung-cancer induction at low doses from insoluble long-lived alpha-emitters than from Rn daughters. These findings are due, in part, to the fact that different regions of the lung are irradiated. Tumors in the lymph nodes are rare in people and animals exposed to radiation.44 references

  17. Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connell, Paul P; Keane, Pearse A; O'Neill, Evelyn C; Altaie, Rasha W; Loane, Edward; Neelam, Kumari; Nolan, John M; Beatty, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  18. Risk Factors for Age-Related Maculopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul P. Connell

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Age-related maculopathy (ARM is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  19. Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Connell, Paul P

    2012-02-01

    Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715\\/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  20. Risk-based remediation: Approach and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frishmuth, R.A.; Benson, L.A.

    1995-01-01

    The principle objective of remedial actions is to protect human health and the environment. Risk assessments are the only defensible tools available to demonstrate to the regulatory community and public that this objective can be achieved. Understanding the actual risks posed by site-related contamination is crucial to designing cost-effective remedial strategies. All to often remedial actions are overdesigned, resulting in little to no increase in risk reduction while increasing project cost. Risk-based remedial actions have recently been embraced by federal and state regulators, industry, government, the scientific community, and the public as a mechanism to implement rapid and cost-effective remedial actions. Emphasizing risk reduction, rather than adherence to ambiguous and generic standards, ensures that only remedial actions required to protect human health and the environment at a particular site are implemented. Two sites are presented as case studies on how risk-based approaches are being used to remediate two petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites. The sites are located at two US Air Force Bases, Wurtsmith Air Force Base (AFB) in Oscoda, Michigan and Malmstrom AFB in Great Falls, Montana

  1. Risk of cancer in relatives of patients with myotonic dystrophy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, M; Diaz, L J; Gørtz, S

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Myotonic dystrophies (DM) are autosomal dominantly inherited neuromuscular disorders caused by unstable nucleotide repeat expansions. DM and cancer have been associated, but the pathogenesis behind the association remains unclear. It could relate to derived effects of the DM...... genotype in which case non-DM relatives of DM patients would not be expected to be at increased risk of cancer. To elucidate this, a population-based cohort study investigating risk of cancer in relatives of DM patients was conducted. METHODS: DM was identified using the National Danish Patient Registry...

  2. Risks of neurological and immune-related diseases, including narcolepsy, after vaccination with Pandemrix: a population- and registry-based cohort study with over 2 years of follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, I; Granath, F; Askling, J; Ludvigsson, J F; Olsson, T; Feltelius, N

    2014-02-01

    To investigate the association between vaccination with Pandemrix and risk of selected neurological and immune-related diseases including narcolepsy. Population-based prospective cohort study using data from regional vaccination registries and national health registries. Seven healthcare regions in Sweden comprising 61% of the Swedish population. Study population of 3,347,467 vaccinated and 2,497,572 nonvaccinated individuals (vaccination coverage ≈ 60%) followed between 2009 and 2011 for 6.9 million person-years after exposure and 6.0 million person-years without exposure. First recorded diagnosis of neurological and immune-related diseases. Relative risks [hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs)] assessed using Cox regression, adjusted for covariates. For all selected neurological and immune-related outcomes under study, other than allergic vaccine reactions (for which we verified an expected increase in risk) and narcolepsy, HRs were close to 1.0 and always below 1.3. We observed a three-fold increased risk of a diagnosis of narcolepsy (HR: 2.92, 95% CI: 1.78-4.79; that is, four additional cases per 100,000 person-years) in individuals ≤ 20 years of age at vaccination and a two-fold increase (HR: 2.18, 95% CI: 1.00-4.75) amongst young adults between 21 and 30 years of age. The excess risk declined successively with increasing age at vaccination; no increase in risk was seen after 40 years of age. For a large number of selected neurological and immune-related diseases, we could neither confirm any causal association with Pandemrix nor refute entirely a small excess risk. We confirmed an increased risk for a diagnosis of narcolepsy in individuals ≤ 20 years of age and observed a trend towards an increased risk also amongst young adults between 21 and 30 years. © 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

  3. Opioid analgesics-related pharmacokinetic drug interactions: from the perspectives of evidence based on randomized controlled trials and clinical risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng XQ

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Xiu-qin Feng,1 Ling-ling Zhu,2 Quan Zhou3 1Nursing Administration Office, Division of Nursing, 2VIP Care Ward, Division of Nursing, 3Department of Pharmacy, The Second Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China Background: Multimorbidity results in complex polypharmacy which may bear a risk of drug interactions. A better understanding of opioid analgesics combination therapy used for pain management could help warrant medication safety, efficacy, and economic relevance. Until now there has been no review summarizing the opioid analgesics-related pharmacokinetic drug interactions from the perspective of evidence based on randomized controlled trials (RCTs. Method: A literature search was performed using PubMed, MEDLINE, and the Cochrane Library, using a PRISMA flowchart. Results: Fifty-two RCTs were included for data interpretation. Forty-two RCTs (80.8% were conducted in healthy volunteers, whereas 10 RCTs (19.2% enrolled true patients. None of the opioid–drug/herb pairs was listed as contraindications of opioids involved in this review. Circumstances in which opioid is comedicated as a precipitant drug include morphine–P2Y12 inhibitors, morphine–gabapentin, and methadone–zidovudine. Circumstances in which opioid is comedicated as an object drug include rifampin–opioids (morphine, tramadol, oxycodone, methadone, quinidine–opioids (morphine, fentanyl, oxycodone, codeine, dihydrocodeine, methadone, antimycotics–opioids (buprenorphine, fentanyl, morphine, oxycodone, methadone, tilidine, tramadol, protease inhibitors–opioids (ritonavir, ritonavir/lopinavir–oxycodone, ritonavir–fentanyl, ritonavir–tilidine, grapefruit juice–opioids (oxycodone, fentanyl, methadone, antidepressants–opioids (paroxetine–tramadol, paroxetine–hydrocodone, paroxetine–oxycodone, escitalopram–tramadol, metoclopramide–morphine, amantadine–morphine, sumatriptan

  4. Risk Factors for Fall-Related Injuries Leading to Hospitalization Among Community-Dwelling Older Persons: A Hospital-Based Case-Control Study in Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravindran, Rekha M; Kutty, V Raman

    2016-01-01

    This study intended to identify the risk factors for injurious falls that led to hospitalization of older persons living in the community. A hospital-based unmatched incident case-control study was done among 251 cases and 250 controls admitted at a tertiary care centre in Kerala. Mean age of cases was 71.6 ± 9.13 years and that of controls was 67.02 ± 6.17 years. Hip fractures were the predominant injury following falls. Falls were mostly a result of intrinsic causes. After adjusting for other variabes, the risk factors for all injuries were age above 70 years (odds ratio [OR] = 2.25; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.46-3.46), previous fall history (OR = 2.76; 95% CI = 1.08-7.08), impaired vision (OR = 4.49; 95% CI = 2.77-7.30), not living with spouse (OR = 1.97; 95% CI = 1.31-2.97), door thresholds (OR = 1.52; 95% CI = 1.01-2.29), and slippery floor (OR = 2.37; 95% CI = 1.31-4.32). The risk factors for hip fractures and other injuries were identified separately. Fall prevention strategies among older persons are warranted in Kerala. © 2015 APJPH.

  5. Human campylobacteriosis related to the consumption of raw milk sold by vending machines in Italy: Quantitative risk assessment based on official controls over four years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giacometti, Federica; Bonilauri, Paolo; Amatiste, Simonetta; Arrigoni, Norma; Bianchi, Manila; Losio, Marina Nadia; Bilei, Stefano; Cascone, Giuseppe; Comin, Damiano; Daminelli, Paolo; Decastelli, Lucia; Merialdi, Giuseppe; Mioni, Renzo; Peli, Angelo; Petruzzelli, Annalisa; Tonucci, Franco; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2015-09-01

    A quantitative risk assessment (RA) model was developed to describe the risk of campylobacteriosis linked to consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Italy. Exposure assessment was based on the official microbiological records of raw milk samples from vending machines monitored by the regional Veterinary Authorities from 2008 to 2011, microbial growth during storage, destruction experiments, consumption frequency of raw milk, serving size, consumption preference and age of consumers. The differential risk considered milk handled under regulation conditions (4°C throughout all phases) and the worst time-temperature field handling conditions detected. Two separate RA models were developed, one for the consumption of boiled milk and the other for the consumption of raw milk, and two different dose-response (D-R) relationships were considered. The RA model predicted no human campylobacteriosis cases per year either in the best (4°C) storage conditions or in the case of thermal abuse in case of boiling raw milk, whereas in case of raw milk consumption the annual estimated campylobacteriosis cases depend on the dose-response relationships used in the model (D-R I or D-R II), the milk time-temperature storage conditions, consumer behaviour and age of consumers, namely young (with two cut-off values of ≤5 or ≤6 years old for the sensitive population) versus adult consumers. The annual estimated cases for young consumers using D-R II for the sensitive population (≤5 years old) ranged between 1013.7/100,000 population and 8110.3/100,000 population and for adult consumers using D-R I between 79.4/100,000 population and 333.1/100,000 population. Quantification of the risks associated with raw milk consumption is necessary from a public health perspective and the proposed RA model represents a useful and flexible tool to perform future RAs based on local consumer habits to support decision-making on safety policies. Further educational programmes for raw milk

  6. Nighttime parenting strategies and sleep-related risks to infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpe, Lane E; Ball, Helen L; McKenna, James J

    2013-02-01

    A large social science and public health literature addresses infant sleep safety, with implications for infant mortality in the context of accidental deaths and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). As part of risk reduction campaigns in the USA, parents are encouraged to place infants supine and to alter infant bedding and elements of the sleep environment, and are discouraged from allowing infants to sleep unsupervised, from bed-sharing either at all or under specific circumstances, or from sofa-sharing. These recommendations are based on findings from large-scale epidemiological studies that generate odds ratios or relative risk statistics for various practices; however, detailed behavioural data on nighttime parenting and infant sleep environments are limited. To address this issue, this paper presents and discusses the implications of four case studies based on overnight observations conducted with first-time mothers and their four-month old infants. These case studies were collected at the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at the University of Notre Dame USA between September 2002 and June 2004. Each case study provides a detailed description based on video analysis of sleep-related risks observed while mother-infant dyads spent the night in a sleep lab. The case studies provide examples of mothers engaged in the strategic management of nighttime parenting for whom sleep-related risks to infants arose as a result of these strategies. Although risk reduction guidelines focus on eliminating potentially risky infant sleep practices as if the probability of death from each were equal, the majority of instances in which these occur are unlikely to result in infant mortality. Therefore, we hypothesise that mothers assess potential costs and benefits within margins of risk which are not acknowledged by risk-reduction campaigns. Exploring why mothers might choose to manage sleep and nighttime parenting in ways that appear to increase potential risks to infants may

  7. Risk-based performance indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarm, M.A.; Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.

    1987-01-01

    The purpose of risk-based indicators is to monitor plant safety. Safety is measured by monitoring the potential for core melt (core-melt frequency) and the public risk. Targets for these measures can be set consistent with NRC safety goals. In this process, the performance of safety systems, support systems, major components, and initiating events can be monitored using measures such as unavailability, failure or occurrence frequency. The changes in performance measures and their trends are determined from the time behavior of monitored measures by differentiation between stochastical and actual variations. Therefore, degradation, as well as improvement in the plant safety performance, can be determined. The development of risk-based performance indicators will also provide the means to trace a change in the safety measures to specific problem areas which are amenable to root cause analysis and inspection audits. In addition, systematic methods will be developed to identify specific improvement policies using the plant information system for the identified problem areas. The final product of the performance indicator project will be a methodology, and an integrated and validated set of software packages which, if properly interfaced with the logic model software of a plant, can monitor the plant performance as plant information is provided as input

  8. Urbanization and traffic related exposures as risk factors for Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Mortensen, Preben Bo

    2006-01-01

    to nearest major road had no significant effect. CONCLUSIONS: The cause(s) or exposure(s) responsible for the urban-rural differences in schizophrenia risk were closer related to the degree of urbanization than to the geographical distance to nearest major road. Traffic related exposures might thus be less......BACKGROUND: Urban birth or upbringing increase schizophrenia risk. Though unknown, the causes of these urban-rural differences have been hypothesized to include, e.g., infections, diet, toxic exposures, social class, or an artefact due to selective migration. METHODS: We investigated the hypothesis...... that traffic related exposures affect schizophrenia risk and that this potential effect is responsible for the urban-rural differences. The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road was used as a proxy variable for traffic related exposures. We used a large population-based sample...

  9. Model-based mitigation of availability risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, E.; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, S.; Salvato, M.

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for risk assessment and mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  10. Model-Based Mitigation of Availability Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, Emmanuele; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, Sandro; Salvato, Marco

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  11. Risk based surveillance for vector borne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Rene

    of samples and hence early detection of outbreaks. Models for vector borne diseases in Denmark have demonstrated dramatic variation in outbreak risk during the season and between years. The Danish VetMap project aims to make these risk based surveillance estimates available on the veterinarians smart phones...... in Northern Europe. This model approach may be used as a basis for risk based surveillance. In risk based surveillance limited resources for surveillance are targeted at geographical areas most at risk and only when the risk is high. This makes risk based surveillance a cost effective alternative...... sample to a diagnostic laboratory. Risk based surveillance models may reduce this delay. An important feature of risk based surveillance models is their ability to continuously communicate the level of risk to veterinarians and hence increase awareness when risk is high. This is essential for submission...

  12. Work-related critical incidents in hospital-based health care providers and the risk of post-traumatic stress symptoms, anxiety, and depression: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Jacoba; Lok, Anja; Van't Verlaat, Ellen; Duivenvoorden, Hugo J; Bakker, Arnold B; Smit, Bert J

    2011-07-01

    This meta-analysis reviewed existing data on the impact of work-related critical incidents in hospital-based health care professionals. Work-related critical incidents may induce post-traumatic stress symptoms or even post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depression and may negatively affect health care practitioners' behaviors toward patients. Nurses and doctors often cope by working part time or switching jobs. Hospital administrators and health care practitioners themselves may underestimate the effects of work-related critical incidents. Relevant online databases were searched for original research published from inception to 2009 and manual searches of the Journal of Traumatic Stress, reference lists, and the European Traumatic Stress Research Database were conducted. Two researchers independently decided on inclusion and study quality. Effect sizes were estimated using standardized mean differences with 95% confidence intervals. Consistency was evaluated, using the I(2)-statistic. Meta-analysis was performed using the random effects model. Eleven studies, which included 3866 participants, evaluated the relationship between work-related critical incidents and post-traumatic stress symptoms. Six of these studies, which included 1695 participants, also reported on the relationship between work-related critical incidents and symptoms of anxiety and depression. Heterogeneity among studies was high and could not be accounted for by study quality, character of the incident, or timing of data collection. Pooled effect sizes for the impact of work-related critical incidents on post-traumatic stress symptoms, anxiety, and depression were small to medium. Remarkably, the effect was more pronounced in the longer than in the shorter term. In conclusion, this meta-analysis supports the hypothesis that work-related critical incidents are positively related to post-traumatic stress symptoms, anxiety, and depression in hospital-based health care professionals

  13. Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

    Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the exposure risk on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Based upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high exposure risk. As a consequence the following recommendations are presented: occupationally exposed persons with small exposure risk should be monitored using only a long-term desimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence desimeter). In the case of internal exposure, the surface and air contamination levels should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed

  14. Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

    2007-03-01

    To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (Ptrinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

  15. Correlations between major risk factors and closely related Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates grouped by three current enotyping procedures: a population-based study in northeast Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katia Peñuelas-Urquides

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The characteristics of tuberculosis (TB patients related to a chain of recent TB transmissions were investigated. Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB isolates (120 were genotyped using the restriction fragment length polymorphism-IS6110 (R, spacer oligotyping (S and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number of tandem repeats (M methods. The MTB isolates were clustered and the clusters were grouped according to the similarities of their genotypes. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between the groups of MTB isolates with similar genotypes and those patient characteristics indicating a risk for a pulmonary TB (PTB chain transmission were ana- lysed. The isolates showing similar genotypes were distributed as follows: SMR (5%, SM (12.5%, SR (1.67%, MR (0%, S (46.67%, M (5% and R (0%. The remaining 35 cases were orphans. SMR exhibited a significant correlation (p < 0.05 with visits to clinics, municipalities and comorbidities (primarily diabetes mellitus. S correlated with drug consumption and M with comorbidities. SMR is needed to identify a social network in metropolitan areas for PTB transmission and S and M are able to detect risk factors as secondary components of a transmission chain of TB.

  16. Correlations between major risk factors and closely related Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates grouped by three current genotyping procedures: a population-based study in northeast Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peñuelas-Urquides, Katia; Martínez-Rodríguez, Herminia Guadalupe; Enciso-Moreno, José Antonio; Molina-Salinas, Gloria María; Silva-Ramírez, Beatriz; Padilla-Rivas, Gerardo Raymundo; Vera-Cabrera, Lucio; Torres-de-la-Cruz, Víctor Manuel; Martínez-Martínez, Yazmin Berenice; Ortega-García, Jorge Luis; Garza-Treviño, Elsa Nancy; Enciso-Moreno, Leonor; Saucedo-Cárdenas, Odila; Becerril-Montes, Pola; Said-Fernández, Salvador

    2014-09-01

    The characteristics of tuberculosis (TB) patients related to a chain of recent TB transmissions were investigated. Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) isolates (120) were genotyped using the restriction fragment length polymorphism-IS6110 (R), spacer oligotyping (S) and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number of tandem repeats (M) methods. The MTB isolates were clustered and the clusters were grouped according to the similarities of their genotypes. Spearman's rank correlation coefficients between the groups of MTB isolates with similar genotypes and those patient characteristics indicating a risk for a pulmonary TB (PTB) chain transmission were ana- lysed. The isolates showing similar genotypes were distributed as follows: SMR (5%), SM (12.5%), SR (1.67%), MR (0%), S (46.67%), M (5%) and R (0%). The remaining 35 cases were orphans. SMR exhibited a significant correlation (p < 0.05) with visits to clinics, municipalities and comorbidities (primarily diabetes mellitus). S correlated with drug consumption and M with comorbidities. SMR is needed to identify a social network in metropolitan areas for PTB transmission and S and M are able to detect risk factors as secondary components of a transmission chain of TB.

  17. Correlations between major risk factors and closely related Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates grouped by three current enotyping procedures: a population-based study in northeast Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peñuelas-Urquides, Katia; Martínez-Rodríguez, Herminia Guadalupe; Enciso-Moreno, José Antonio; Molina-Salinas, Gloria María; Silva-Ramírez, Beatriz; Padilla-Rivas, Gerardo Raymundo; Vera-Cabrera, Lucio; Torres-de-la-Cruz, Víctor Manuel; Martínez-Martínez, Yazmin Berenice; Ortega-García, Jorge Luis; Garza-Treviño, Elsa Nancy; Enciso-Moreno, Leonor; Saucedo-Cárdenas, Odila; Becerril-Montes, Pola; Said-Fernández/, Salvador

    2014-01-01

    The characteristics of tuberculosis (TB) patients related to a chain of recent TB transmissions were investigated. Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) isolates (120) were genotyped using the restriction fragment length polymorphism-IS6110 (R), spacer oligotyping (S) and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number of tandem repeats (M) methods. The MTB isolates were clustered and the clusters were grouped according to the similarities of their genotypes. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between the groups of MTB isolates with similar genotypes and those patient characteristics indicating a risk for a pulmonary TB (PTB) chain transmission were ana- lysed. The isolates showing similar genotypes were distributed as follows: SMR (5%), SM (12.5%), SR (1.67%), MR (0%), S (46.67%), M (5%) and R (0%). The remaining 35 cases were orphans. SMR exhibited a significant correlation (p < 0.05) with visits to clinics, municipalities and comorbidities (primarily diabetes mellitus). S correlated with drug consumption and M with comorbidities. SMR is needed to identify a social network in metropolitan areas for PTB transmission and S and M are able to detect risk factors as secondary components of a transmission chain of TB. PMID:25317710

  18. The Risk of Amenorrhea Is Related to Chemotherapy-Induced Leucopenia in Breast Cancer Patients Receiving Epirubicin and Taxane Based Chemotherapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Xiuqing; He, Zhongyuan; Zha, Xiaoming; Liu, Xiaoan; Wang, Shui

    2012-01-01

    Background Chemotherapy-induced amenorrhea (CIA) is common in young breast cancer patients. The incidence of CIA associated with regimens involving epirubicin and taxane was not well known. Furthermore, previous studies suggested leucopenia and amenorrhea may reflect inter-individual variations in pharmacokinetics. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between leucopenia after first cycle of chemotherapy and CIA in young breast cancer patients receiving epirubicin and taxane based chemotherapy. Furthermore, the incidence of CIA was also assessed. Methodology and Principal Findings Between October 2008 and March 2010, 186 consecutive premenopausal patients, treated with epirubicin and taxane based chemotherapy, were recruited. Information about CIA was collected by telephone and out-patient clinic. Of these 186 patients, data from 165 patients were included and analyzed. Of all 165 patients, CIA occurred in 72 patients (43.64%). In multivariate analysis, age older than 40 y (OR: 16.10, 95% CI: 6.34–40.88, P0.05). The rate of CIA in leucopenia group (52.56%) was significantly higher than that in normal leukocyte group (34.62%) (P = 0.024). In patients treated with a FEC regimen (cyclophosphamide, epirubicin and 5-fluorouracil), the rate of CIA in leucopenia group (59.57%) was significantly higher than that in normal leukocyte group (36.84%) (P = 0.037). Conclusions Age at diagnosis and previous childbearing were both found to significantly increase the risk of CIA, whereas additional taxane was not associated with increased rate of CIA. Importantly, leucopenia after first cycle of chemotherapy was associated with increased risk of CIA, which suggested that leucopenia may be an early predictor of chemotherapy-induced infertility. PMID:22615953

  19. The risk of amenorrhea is related to chemotherapy-induced leucopenia in breast cancer patients receiving epirubicin and taxane based chemotherapy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenbin Zhou

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Chemotherapy-induced amenorrhea (CIA is common in young breast cancer patients. The incidence of CIA associated with regimens involving epirubicin and taxane was not well known. Furthermore, previous studies suggested leucopenia and amenorrhea may reflect inter-individual variations in pharmacokinetics. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between leucopenia after first cycle of chemotherapy and CIA in young breast cancer patients receiving epirubicin and taxane based chemotherapy. Furthermore, the incidence of CIA was also assessed. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Between October 2008 and March 2010, 186 consecutive premenopausal patients, treated with epirubicin and taxane based chemotherapy, were recruited. Information about CIA was collected by telephone and out-patient clinic. Of these 186 patients, data from 165 patients were included and analyzed. Of all 165 patients, CIA occurred in 72 patients (43.64%. In multivariate analysis, age older than 40 y (OR: 16.10, 95% CI: 6.34-40.88, P0.05. The rate of CIA in leucopenia group (52.56% was significantly higher than that in normal leukocyte group (34.62% (P = 0.024. In patients treated with a FEC regimen (cyclophosphamide, epirubicin and 5-fluorouracil, the rate of CIA in leucopenia group (59.57% was significantly higher than that in normal leukocyte group (36.84% (P = 0.037. CONCLUSIONS: Age at diagnosis and previous childbearing were both found to significantly increase the risk of CIA, whereas additional taxane was not associated with increased rate of CIA. Importantly, leucopenia after first cycle of chemotherapy was associated with increased risk of CIA, which suggested that leucopenia may be an early predictor of chemotherapy-induced infertility.

  20. People at High Risk of Developing Flu-Related Complications

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other People at High Risk of Developing Flu–Related Complications ... related complications if they get sick with influenza. People at High Risk for Developing Flu-Related Complications ...

  1. Risk factors related to female breast cancer in regions of Northeast China: a 1:3 matched case-control population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhi-gang; Jia, Cun-xian; Geng, Cui-zhi; Tang, Jin-hai; Zhang, Jin; Liu, Li-yuan

    2012-03-01

    There has been an increase in the incidence of breast cancer in China, but no definite risk and protective factors for breast cancer have been identified in Chinese females. This study was designed to identify the risk factors for female breast cancer in North and East China. A 1:3 matched, case-control study was conducted. All of the subjects in the case and control groups were selected from a previous epidemiological survey of 122 058 females aged 25 to 70 years. Single and multiple Logistic regression analyses were used to study potential factors in the development of breast cancer. Significant differences at the level of α=0.20 between case and control groups were observed for the following factors: economic status, social status, family annual income, bean product consumption, body mass index (BMI), family history of breast cancer in the first or second degree, number of miscarriages, menstrual pattern, benign breast disease history, nipple leakage, inverted nipple, history of diabetes mellitus, history of hypertension, history of ovarian cyst, physical exercise, current and global quality of life satisfaction, healthy behavior and prevention, and scores of breast cancer-related knowledge. After Cox-regression model analysis (α=0.10), six factors were found to be significantly related to breast cancer, of which the ORs and 95%CIs were: BMI, 1.696 (1.169-2.460, P=0.005); benign breast disease history, 2.672 (0.848-8.416, P=0.093); family history of breast cancer, 7.080 (1.758-28.551, P=0.006); number of miscarriages, 1.738 (1.014-2.978, P=0.044); global quality of life satisfaction, 3.044 (1.804-5.136, P=0.000); healthy behavior and prevention, 3.294 (1.692-6.412, P=0.000). A comprehensive range of factors related to breast cancer was identified. Women should be educated about a healthy lifestyle, especially those with a family history of breast cancer or a personal history of benign breast disease.

  2. Peripheral intravenous catheter-related phlebitis and related risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nassaji-Zavareh, M; Ghorbani, R

    2007-08-01

    Peripheral intravenous catheter-related phlebitis is a common and significant problem in clinical practice. This study aims to investigate the incidence of phlebitis and to evaluate some important related factors. 300 patients admitted to medical and surgical wards of hospitals in Semnan, Iran from April 2003 to February 2004 were prospectively studied. Variables evaluated were age, gender, site and size of catheter, type of insertion and underlying conditions (diabetes mellitus, trauma, infectious disease and burns). Phlebitis was defined when at least four criteria were fulfilled (erythema, pain, tenderness, warmth, induration, palpable cord and swelling). Any patient who was discharged or their catheter removed before three days were excluded. Phlebitis occurred in 26 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI] 21- 31 percent) of patients. There was no significant relationship between age, catheter bore size, trauma and phlebitis. Related risk factors were gender (odds-ratio [OR] 1.50, 95 percent CI 1.01-2.22), site (OR 3.25, 95 percent CI 2.26-4.67) and type of insertion (OR 2.04, 95 percent CI 1.36-3.05) of catheter, diabetes mellitus (OR 7.78, 95 percent CI 4.59-13.21), infectious disease (OR 6.21, 95 percent CI 4.27-9.03) and burns (OR 3.96, 95 percent CI 3.26-4.82). Phlebitis is still an important and ongoing problem in medical practice. In patients with diabetes mellitus and infectious diseases, more attention is needed.

  3. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trine Madsen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

  4. Climate Change and Food-Related Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isidro Juan Mirón Pérez

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There are two principal concepts to take into account relating food and climate change: food security and food safety. Most papers linking climate change to food risks deal with the first one: the security of the food supply.The increase of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, together with the rise of the temperatures on a global level would theorically lead to greater yields of crops grown for human and animal consumption. Howevwe, most of these studies have shown that, in general, crop yields are decreasing as this global change also brings about an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. In adition, these weather anomalies would be unevenly spread and affect developing countries, which are less capable of tackling this change, more severely. All these factors would result in greater uncertainty in the supply of food, which consequently would be less predictable and leave it more exposed to market speculation.A rise in average temperatures would be expected to increase the risk of proliferation of foodborne disease-causing microorganisms such as Salmonella or Campylobacter. Nevertheless, a trend of this sort has not been detected yet in developed countries, where information systems allow the temporal evolution of the occurrence of those diseases to be tracked, since means for food preservation and food controls are wide spread.

  5. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  6. The Experiences of Patients´ Close Relatives with Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer and Health-Therapeutic Personnel from the Determinants of Nutritional Behaviors: A Theory-based Qualitative Content Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MH Baghiani Moghadam

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Cancers are one of the most common causes of death at age groups above 50 years old that Life style modification has an important role in prevention of them. Diets are the most important factor at the risk of gastric cancer. The aim of present study was explanation of the Experiences of Patients´ Close Relatives with Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer and Health-Therapeutic Personnel from the Determinants of Nutritional Behaviors based on protection motivation theory. Methods: The present qualitative study was done with content analysis method application at Babol health-therapeutic centers covered by Babol University of Medical Sciences for eight months in 2013. semi-structure d face to face interview were used to collect the data with 9 participants from Patients´ Close Relatives with Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer and 19 participants from Health-Therapeutic Personnel. Data analysis and collection were simultaneously done by using the method of theory-based (directed or conductive content analysis. Results:From data analysis 487initial codes and after integration,186 main codes were extracted .This codes were pasted at 2 pre-determined categories and 7 pre-determined sub-categories related to protection motivation theory(perceived sensitivity, perceived severity, reward, fear, perceived response-efficacy, self-efficacy and perceived cost-benefit. The most main perceived problem, was the low level of awareness, attitude and practice at people about nutritional risk factors related to gastric cancer and a result the low level of disease fear. Conclusion: The findings of present study are the indicator of effective determinants on nutritional behaviors that can help to health-therapeutic policy –makers to provide and approve the most appropriate solutions and strategies with aim of changing these determinants in order to reduce nutritional risk factors related to gastric cancer.

  7. Elite athletes experiences with risk related to cardiac screening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jonas Schmidt; Thing, Lone Friis

    Society of Cardiology as well as major sports federations such as the International Olympic Committee, however, these recommendations seem to be based on an inadequate empirical foundation, just as the costs of performing cardiac screening on a larger scale seem out of proportion. Additionally, the field...... perspective on risk (Foucault 1988). For most elite athletes participation in cardiac screening is done out of a wish to obtain an acquittal from risks. Symptomatic of the risk society cardiac screening can from an athlete perspective at the same time be seen as an attempt to gain control over......Elite Athletes experiences with risks related to Cardiac Screening Jonas Schmidt Christensen1, Lone Friis Thing1 1University of Copenhagen - Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports (NEXS), Cardiac screening of elite athletes are recommended by both the American Heart Association & the European...

  8. Urbanization and traffic related exposures as risk factors for Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Mortensen, Preben Bo

    2006-01-01

    : The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road had a significant effect. The highest risk was found in children living 500-1000 metres from nearest major road (RR=1.30 (95% Confidence Interval: 1.17-1.44). However, when we accounted for the degree of urbanization, the geographical distance...... that traffic related exposures affect schizophrenia risk and that this potential effect is responsible for the urban-rural differences. The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road was used as a proxy variable for traffic related exposures. We used a large population-based sample......BACKGROUND: Urban birth or upbringing increase schizophrenia risk. Though unknown, the causes of these urban-rural differences have been hypothesized to include, e.g., infections, diet, toxic exposures, social class, or an artefact due to selective migration. METHODS: We investigated the hypothesis...

  9. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

    2003-01-01

    The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

  10. Affect and Acceptability: Exploring Teachers' Technology-Related Risk Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Sarah K.

    2011-01-01

    Educational change, such as technology integration, involves risk. Teachers are encouraged to "take risks", but what risks they are asked to take and how do they perceive these risks? Developing an understanding of teachers' technology-related risk perceptions can help explain their choices and behaviours. This paper presents a way to…

  11. Relative risks for stroke by age, sex, and population based on follow-up of 18 European populations in the MORGAM Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asplund, Kjell; Karvanen, Juha; Giampaoli, Simona

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Within the framework of the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) Project, the variations in impact of classical risk factors of stroke by population, sex, and age were analyzed. METHODS: Follow-up data were collected in 43 cohorts in 18 populations in 8...... European countries surveyed for cardiovascular risk factors. In 93 695 persons aged 19 to 77 years and free of major cardiovascular disease at baseline, total observation years were 1 234 252 and the number of stroke events analyzed was 3142. Hazard ratios were calculated by Cox regression analyses....... RESULTS: Each year of age increased the risk of stroke (fatal and nonfatal together) by 9% (95% CI, 9% to 10%) in men and by 10% (9% to 10%) in women. A 10-mm Hg increase in systolic blood pressure involved a similar increase in risk in men (28%; 24% to 32%) and women (25%; 20% to 29%). Smoking conferred...

  12. Pushing and pulling in relation to musculoskeletal disorders : a review of risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoozemans, M J; Van Der Beek, Allard J.; Frings-Dresen, M. H. W.; Dijk, F.J.H.; van der Woude, L H

    The objective was to review the literature on risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders related to pushing and pulling. The risk factors have been described and evaluated from four perspectives: epidemiology, psychophysics, physiology, and biomechanics. Epidemiological studies have shown, based on

  13. Pushing and pulling in relation to musculoskeletal disorders: a review of risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoozemans, Marco; van der Beek, A.J.; Frings-Dresen, M.H.W.; Dijk, F.J.H.

    1998-01-01

    The objective was to review the literature on risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders related to pushing and pulling. The risk factors have been described and evaluated from four perspectives: epidemiology, psychophysics, physiology, and biomechanics. Epidemiological studies have shown, based on

  14. Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anette Tarp; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

    2017-01-01

    The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

  15. Concept analysis of risk in relation to coronary heart disease among Filipino-Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalusung-Angosta, Alona

    2010-01-01

    To analyze the concept of risk in relation to coronary heart disease (CHD) among Filipino-Americans (FAs) and provide a new definition of risk. Published literature. This concept analysis provided a new meaning of risk in relation to CHD among FAs and shed light on further understanding of risk. Risk has been laced with negativity in health care, but based on the current literature, risk can be conceptualized in a positive perspective, especially in the area of chronic health disease such as CHD. However, further research is needed in the conceptualization of risk related to CHD for consistency, adequacy, and meaning. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Risk based seismic design criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.

    1999-01-01

    In order to develop a risk based seismic design criteria the following four issues must be addressed: (1) What target annual probability of seismic induced unacceptable performance is acceptable? (2) What minimum seismic margin is acceptable? (3) Given the decisions made under Issues 1 and 2, at what annual frequency of exceedance should the safe-shutdown-earthquake (SSE) ground motion be defined? (4) What seismic design criteria should be established to reasonably achieve the seismic margin defined under Issue 2? The first issue is purely a policy decision and is not addressed in this paper. Each of the other three issues are addressed. Issues 2 and 3 are integrally tied together so that a very large number of possible combinations of responses to these two issues can be used to achieve the target goal defined under Issue 1. Section 2 lays out a combined approach to these two issues and presents three potentially attractive combined resolutions of these two issues which reasonably achieves the target goal. The remainder of the paper discusses an approach which can be used to develop seismic design criteria aimed at achieving the desired seismic margin defined in resolution of Issue 2. Suggestions for revising existing seismic design criteria to more consistently achieve the desired seismic margin are presented. (orig.)

  17. Suicide risk in relation to social class: a national register-based study of adult suicides in Korea, 1999-2001.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Moon-Doo; Hong, Seong-Chul; Lee, Sang-Yi; Kwak, Young-Sook; Lee, Chang-In; Hwang, Seung-Wook; Shin, Tae-Kyun; Lee, Seung-Min; Shin, Ji-Nam

    2006-03-01

    Few controlled studies have examined social class as a risk factor for suicide in Korea. The objective of the present study was to investigate the effects of social class on suicide risk in Korea. A case-control design was constructed from cause-of-death statistics for the period 1999 to 2001, in Korea, as published by the Korean National Statistical Office. The cases were defined as people aged between 20 and 64 who died by suicide, while the controls were defined as those who died of natural causes in the same age groups. The proportions and odds ratios for suicide were higher in young people than in elderly people, and higher for divorced subjects than for cohabitants. They were also higher for residents of rural areas, as opposed to residents of Seoul and other metropolitan areas, and for people in social classes III and IV, than they were for those in social class I. To control the variables that influence risk of suicide, such as age, marital status and area of residence, we used multiple logistic regression. Compared with class I, risk of suicide was higher in social classes III and IV, in both sexes. The principal conclusion of this study is that, regardless of sex, lower social class constitutes a high risk for suicide in Korea, even after controlling for variables such as age, marital status and area of residence. We conclude that a well-controlled and balanced social welfare system could reduce suicide risk, especially among people in lower social class.

  18. Craniopharyngioma adherence: a comprehensive topographical categorization and outcome-related risk stratification model based on the methodical examination of 500 tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prieto, Ruth; Pascual, José María; Rosdolsky, Maria; Castro-Dufourny, Inés; Carrasco, Rodrigo; Strauss, Sewan; Barrios, Laura

    2016-12-01

    , 20%). The types of CP attachment associated with the worst surgical outcomes are the ring-like, bowl-like, and circumferential ones with fusion to the TVF or replacement of this structure (p < 0.001). The CP topography is the variable that best predicts the type of CP attachment (p < 0.001). Ring-like and circumferential attachments were observed for CPs invading the TVF (secondary intraventricular CPs) and CPs developing within the TVF itself (infundibulo-tuberal CPs). Brain invasion and peritumoral gliosis occurred predominantly in the ring-like and circumferential adherence patterns (p < 0.001). A multivariate model including the variables CP topography, tumor consistency, and the presence of hydrocephalus, infundibulo-tuberal syndrome, and/or hypothalamic dysfunction accurately predicts the severity of CP attachment in 87% of cases. CONCLUSIONS A comprehensive descriptive model of CP adherence in 5 hierarchical levels of increased severity-mild, moderate, serious, severe, and critical-was generated. This model, based on the location, morphology, and strength of the attachment can be used to anticipate the surgical risk of hypothalamic injury and to plan the degree of removal accordingly.

  19. Risk assessment of PCDD/Fs levels in human tissues related to major food items based on chemical analyses and micro-EROD assay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsang, H L; Wu, S C; Wong, C K C; Leung, C K M; Tao, S; Wong, M H

    2009-10-01

    Nine groups of food items (freshwater fish, marine fish, pork, chicken, chicken eggs, leafy, non-leafy vegetables, rice and flour) and three types of human samples (human milk, maternal serum and cord serum) were collected for the analysis of PCDD/Fs. Results of chemical analysis revealed PCDD/Fs concentrations (pg g(-1) fat) in the following ascending order: pork (0.289 pg g(-1) fat), grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idellus) (freshwater fish) (0.407), golden thread (Nemipterus virgatus) (marine fish) (0.511), chicken (0.529), mandarin fish (Siniperca kneri) (marine fish) (0.535), chicken egg (0.552), and snubnose pompano (Trachinotus blochii) (marine fish) (1.219). The results of micro-EROD assay showed relatively higher PCDD/Fs levels in fish (2.65 pg g(-1) fat) when compared with pork (0.47), eggs (0.33), chicken (0.13), flour (0.07), vegetables (0.05 pg g(-1) wet wt) and rice (0.05). The estimated average daily intake of PCDD/Fs of 3.51 pg EROD-TEQ/kg bw/day was within the range of WHO Tolerable Daily Intake (1-4 pg WHO-TEQ/kg bw/day) and was higher than the Provisional Tolerable Daily Intake (PMTL) (70 pg for dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs) recommended by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA) [Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA), Summary and conclusions of the fifty-seventh meeting, JECFA, 2001.]. Nevertheless, the current findings were significantly lower than the TDI (14 pg WHO-TEQ/kg/bw/day) recommended by the Scientific Committee on Food of the Europe Commission [European Scientific Committee on Food (EU SCF), Opinions on the SCF on the risk assessment of dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs in food, 2000.]. However, it should be noted that micro-EROD assay overestimates the PCDD/Fs levels by 2 to 7 folds which may also amplify the PCDD/Fs levels accordingly. Although the levels of PCDD/Fs obtained from micro-EROD assay were much higher than those obtained by chemical analysis by 2 to 7 folds, it provides a cost-effective and

  20. HIV prevalence and related risk behaviours in female seasonal farm workers in Souss Massa Draa, Morocco: results from a cross-sectional survey using cluster-based sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozicevic, Ivana; Guezzar, Fatiha; Stulhofer, Aleksandar; Bennani, Aziza; Handanagic, Senad; Barbaric, Jelena; El Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Khattabi, Hamida; Riedner, Gabriele; Maaroufi, Abderrahmane

    2017-06-08

    To determine prevalence of HIV and HIV-related behaviours in female seasonal farm workers (FSFWs) in two provinces of Souss Massa Draa (SMD) region in Morocco. SMD has a higher burden of HIV compared with other parts of Morocco and is characterised by a substantial aggregation of FSFW. We carried out a cross-sectional HIV biobehavioural survey using cluster-based sampling of farms in the provinces Chtouka Aït Baha and Taroudant Ouled Teïma in 2014. HIV testing was done using the Determine HIV-1/2 rapid test and reactive specimens were tested using ELISA and western blot. Collected data were post hoc weighted for region-based stratification and adjusted for clustering effects using complex survey functions of SPSS (V.21). Among those eligible to participate, the response rate was 92.8%. HIV prevalence was 0.9% (95% CI 0.4% to 2.4%) among 520 recruited participants. A high proportion of respondents (67.7%) had no education. Ever having sex was reported by 79.8% and among these, 12.7% ever exchanged sex for money or goods. Sixty-one per cent reported condom use at most recent commercial vaginal sex in the past 12 months. STI symptom recognition was found to be low because 62.4% and 46.8% of FSFW could not report any STI symptoms in men and women, respectively. Twenty-seven per cent of respondents had an HIV test in the past 12 months. In multivariable analysis, those with primary or higher education (adjusted OR (aOR)=2.38, 95% CI 1.33 to 4.27) and those who participated in an HIV educational session at their workplace (aOR=11.00, 95% CI 3.99 to 30.31) had higher odds of ever been tested for HIV. Although we found a relatively low HIV prevalence among FSFW in SMD, HIV interventions should be intensified, in particular, in a subgroup of women who are involved in sex work. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  1. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  2. Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

  3. Managing IT-related operational risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savić Ana

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Not so long ago, information technology (IT risk occupied a small corner of operational risk - the opportunity loss from a missed IT development deadline. Today, the success of an entire financial institution may lay on managing a broad landscape of IT risks. IT risk is a potential damage to an organization's value, resulting from inadequate managing of processes and technologies. IT risk includes the failure to respond to security and privacy requirements, as well as many other issues such as: human error, internal fraud through software manipulation, external fraud by intruders, obsolesce in applications and machines, reliability issues or mismanagement. The World Economic Forum provides best information about this problem. They rank a breakdown of critical information infrastructure among the most likely core global risks, with 10-20 % likelihood over the next 10 years and potential worldwide impact of $250 billion. Sustained investment in IT - almost $1.2 trillion or 29% of 2006 private-sector capital investment in the U.S. alone fuels growing exposure to IT risk. Greg Hughes, chief strategy officer in Symantec Corp. recently claimed "IT risk management is more than using technology to solve security problems. With proper planning and broad support, it can give an organization the confidence to innovate, using IT to outdistance competitors".

  4. Characterization of the Human Risk of Salmonellosis Related to Consumption of Pork Products in Different E.U. Countries Based on a QMRA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vigre, Håkan; Barfoed, Kristen; Swart, Arno N.

    2016-01-01

    simulated the occurrence of Salmonella from the farm to consumption of pork cuts, minced meat, and fermented ready‐to‐eat sausage, respectively, and a dose‐response model was used to estimate the probability of illness at consumption. The QMRA has a generic structure with a defined set of variables, whose...... product types. Fermented ready‐to‐eat sausage imposed the highest probability of illness per serving in all countries, whereas the risks per serving of minced meat and pork chops were similar within each MS. For each of the products, the risk varied by a factor of 100 between the four MSs. The influence......In response to the European Food Safety Authority's wish to assess the reduction of human cases of salmonellosis by implementing control measures at different points in the farm‐to‐consumption chain for pork products, a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) was developed. The model...

  5. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  6. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected

  7. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

  8. Association between firearm ownership, firearm-related risk and risk reduction behaviours and alcohol-related risk behaviours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wintemute, Garen J

    2011-12-01

    Alcohol use and firearm ownership are risk factors for violent injury and death. To determine whether firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours, the author conducted a cross-sectional study using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data for eight states in the USA from 1996 to 1997 (the most recent data available). Altogether, 15 474 respondents provided information on firearm exposure. After adjustment for demographics and state of residence, firearm owners were more likely than those with no firearms at home to have ≥5 drinks on one occasion (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.50), to drink and drive (OR 1.79; 95% CI 1.34 to 2.39) and to have ≥60 drinks per month (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.14 to 1.83). Heavy alcohol use was most common among firearm owners who also engaged in behaviours such as carrying a firearm for protection against other people and keeping a firearm at home that was both loaded and not locked away. The author concludes that firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours.

  9. Backtesting for Risk-Based Regulatory Capital

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.; Melenberg, B.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we present a framework for backtesting all currently popular risk measurement methods (including value-at-risk and expected shortfall) using the functional delta method.Estimation risk can be taken explicitly into account.Based on a simulation study we provide evidence that tests for

  10. Threshold Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communication for Health Risks Related to Hazardous Ambient Temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Hoppe, Brenda O; Convertino, Matteo

    2018-04-10

    Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model is used to derive the exposure-response functions between daily maximum heat index and mortality (1998-2014) and morbidity (emergency department visits; 2007-2014). Specific causes considered include cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases, and diabetes. Six extreme temperature thresholds, corresponding to 1st-3rd and 97th-99th percentiles of local exposure history, are examined. All six extreme temperature thresholds capture significantly increased relative risks for all-cause mortality and morbidity. However, the cause-specific analyses reveal heterogeneity. Extreme cold thresholds capture increased mortality and morbidity risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and extreme heat thresholds for renal disease. Percentile-based extreme temperature thresholds are appropriate for initiating ERC targeting the general population. Tailoring ERC by specific causes may protect some but not all individuals with health conditions exacerbated by hazardous ambient temperature exposure. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Relative radiological risks derived from different TENORM wastes in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, B; Teng, I L; Muhammad Samudi, Y

    2011-11-01

    In Malaysia technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials (TENORM) wastes are mainly the product of the oil and gas industry and mineral processing. Among these TENORM wastes are tin tailing, tin slag, gypsum and oil sludge. Mineral processing and oil and gas industries produce large volume of TENORM wastes that has become a radiological concern to the authorities. A study was carried out to assess the radiological risk related to workers working at these disposal sites and landfills as well as to the members of the public should these areas be developed for future land use. Radiological risk was assessed based on the magnitude of radiation hazard, effective dose rates and excess cancer risks. Effective dose rates and excess cancer risks were estimated using RESRAD 6.4 computer code. All data on the activity concentrations of NORM in wastes and sludges used in this study were obtained from the Atomic Energy Licensing Board, Malaysia, and they were collected over a period of between 5 and 10 y. Results obtained showed that there was a wide range in the total activity concentrations (TAC) of nuclides in the TENORM wastes. With the exception of tin slag and tin tailing-based TENORM wastes, all other TENORM wastes have TAC values comparable to that of Malaysia's soil. Occupational Effective Dose Rates estimated in all landfill areas were lower than the 20 mSv y(-1) permissible dose limit. The average Excess Cancer Risk Coefficient was estimated to be 2.77×10(-3) risk per mSv. The effective dose rates for residents living on gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes landfills were estimated to be lower than the permissible dose limit for members of the public, and was also comparable to that of the average Malaysia's ordinary soils. The average excess cancer risk coefficient was estimated to be 3.19×10(-3) risk per mSv. Results obtained suggest that gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes should be exempted from any radiological regulatory

  12. Relative radiological risks derived from different TENORM wastes in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ismail, B.; Teng, I. L.; Muhammad samudi, Y.

    2011-01-01

    In Malaysia technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials (TENORM) wastes are mainly the product of the oil and gas industry and mineral processing. Among these TENORM wastes are tin tailing, tin slag, gypsum and oil sludge. Mineral processing and oil and gas industries produce large volume of TENORM wastes that has become a radiological concern to the authorities. A study was carried out to assess the radiological risk related to workers working at these disposal sites and landfills as well as to the members of the public should these areas be developed for future land use. Radiological risk was assessed based on the magnitude of radiation hazard, effective dose rates and excess cancer risks. Effective dose rates and excess cancer risks were estimated using RESRAD 6.4 computer code. All data on the activity concentrations of NORM in wastes and sludges used in this study were obtained from the Atomic Energy Licensing Board (Malaysia), and they were collected over a period of between 5 and 10 y. Results obtained showed that there was a wide range in the total activity concentrations (TAC) of nuclides in the TENORM wastes. With the exception of tin slag and tin tailing-based TENORM wastes, all other TENORM wastes have TAC values comparable to that of Malaysia's soil. Occupational Effective Dose Rates estimated in all landfill areas were lower than the 20 mSv y -1 permissible dose limit. The average Excess Cancer Risk Coefficient was estimated to be 2.77 x 10 -3 risk per mSv. The effective dose rates for residents living on gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes landfills were estimated to be lower than the permissible dose limit for members of the public, and was also comparable to that of the average Malaysia's ordinary soils. The average excess cancer risk coefficient was estimated to be 3.19 x 10 -3 risk per mSv. Results obtained suggest that gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes should be exempted from any radiological regulatory

  13. Relation of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors between Parents and Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halvorsen, Tanya; Moran, Antoinette; Jacobs, David R; Steffen, Lyn M; Sinaiko, Alan R; Zhou, Xia; Steinberger, Julia

    2015-11-01

    To explore the relations of parent-child cardiometabolic risk factors and assess the influence of adiposity on these associations. Associations of adiposity, blood pressure (BP), lipids, fasting insulin and glucose, and a risk factor cluster score (CS) were evaluated in a cross-sectional study of 179 parents and their children (6-18 years, N = 255). Insulin resistance was assessed by euglycemic clamp in parents and children aged 10 years or older. Metabolic syndrome in parents was defined by National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. CSs of the risk factors were created based on age-specific z-scores. Analyses included Pearson correlation and linear regression, adjusted for parent and child age, sex, race, and body mass index (BMI), accounting for within-family correlation. We found positive parent-child correlations for measures of adiposity (BMI, BMI percentile, waist, subcutaneous fat, and visceral fat; r = 0.22-0.34, all P ≤ .003), systolic BP (r = 0.20, P = .002), total cholesterol (r = 0.39, P parent-child correlations, except systolic BP, remained significant. Although adiposity is strongly correlated between parents and children, many cardiometabolic risk factors correlate independent of parent and child BMI. Adverse parental cardiometabolic profiles may identify at-risk children independent of the child's adiposity status. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Modelling the genetic risk in age-related macular degeneration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Grassmann

    Full Text Available Late-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD is a common sight-threatening disease of the central retina affecting approximately 1 in 30 Caucasians. Besides age and smoking, genetic variants from several gene loci have reproducibly been associated with this condition and likely explain a large proportion of disease. Here, we developed a genetic risk score (GRS for AMD based on 13 risk variants from eight gene loci. The model exhibited good discriminative accuracy, area-under-curve (AUC of the receiver-operating characteristic of 0.820, which was confirmed in a cross-validation approach. Noteworthy, younger AMD patients aged below 75 had a significantly higher mean GRS (1.87, 95% CI: 1.69-2.05 than patients aged 75 and above (1.45, 95% CI: 1.36-1.54. Based on five equally sized GRS intervals, we present a risk classification with a relative AMD risk of 64.0 (95% CI: 14.11-1131.96 for individuals in the highest category (GRS 3.44-5.18, 0.5% of the general population compared to subjects with the most common genetic background (GRS -0.05-1.70, 40.2% of general population. The highest GRS category identifies AMD patients with a sensitivity of 7.9% and a specificity of 99.9% when compared to the four lower categories. Modeling a general population around 85 years of age, 87.4% of individuals in the highest GRS category would be expected to develop AMD by that age. In contrast, only 2.2% of individuals in the two lowest GRS categories which represent almost 50% of the general population are expected to manifest AMD. Our findings underscore the large proportion of AMD cases explained by genetics particularly for younger AMD patients. The five-category risk classification could be useful for therapeutic stratification or for diagnostic testing purposes once preventive treatment is available.

  15. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  16. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  17. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  18. Risk-based SMA for Cubesats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse

    2016-01-01

    This presentation conveys an approach for risk-based safety and mission assurance applied to cubesats. This presentation accompanies a NASA Goddard standard in development that provides guidance for building a mission success plan for cubesats based on the risk tolerance and resources available.

  19. Nature-Based Stress Management Course for Individuals at Risk of Adverse Health Effects from Work-Related Stress—Effects on Stress Related Symptoms, Workability and Sick Leave

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Sahlin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Sick leave due to stress-related disorders is increasing in Sweden after a period of decrease. To avoid that individuals living under heavy stress develop more severe stress-related disorders, different stress management interventions are offered. Self-assessed health, burnout-scores and well-being are commonly used as outcome measures. Few studies have used sick-leave to compare effects of stress interventions. A new approach is to use nature and garden in a multimodal stress management context. This study aimed to explore effects on burnout, work ability, stress-related health symptoms, and sick leave for 33 women participating in a 12-weeks nature based stress management course and to investigate how the nature/garden activities were experienced. A mixed method approach was used. Measures were taken at course start and three follow-ups. Results showed decreased burnout-scores and long-term sick leaves, and increased work ability; furthermore less stress-related symptoms were reported. Tools and strategies to better handle stress were achieved and were widely at use at all follow-ups. The garden and nature content played an important role for stress relief and for tools and strategies to develop. The results from this study points to beneficial effects of using garden activities and natural environments in a stress management intervention.

  20. Nature-Based Stress Management Course for Individuals at Risk of Adverse Health Effects from Work-Related Stress—Effects on Stress Related Symptoms, Workability and Sick Leave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahlin, Eva; Ahlborg, Gunnar; Vega Matuszczyk, Josefa; Grahn, Patrik

    2014-01-01

    Sick leave due to stress-related disorders is increasing in Sweden after a period of decrease. To avoid that individuals living under heavy stress develop more severe stress-related disorders, different stress management interventions are offered. Self-assessed health, burnout-scores and well-being are commonly used as outcome measures. Few studies have used sick-leave to compare effects of stress interventions. A new approach is to use nature and garden in a multimodal stress management context. This study aimed to explore effects on burnout, work ability, stress-related health symptoms, and sick leave for 33 women participating in a 12-weeks nature based stress management course and to investigate how the nature/garden activities were experienced. A mixed method approach was used. Measures were taken at course start and three follow-ups. Results showed decreased burnout-scores and long-term sick leaves, and increased work ability; furthermore less stress-related symptoms were reported. Tools and strategies to better handle stress were achieved and were widely at use at all follow-ups. The garden and nature content played an important role for stress relief and for tools and strategies to develop. The results from this study points to beneficial effects of using garden activities and natural environments in a stress management intervention. PMID:25003175

  1. Relative and absolute risk in epidemiology and health physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldsmith, R.; Peterson, H.T. Jr.

    1983-01-01

    The health risk from ionizing radiation commonly is expressed in two forms: (1) the relative risk, which is the percentage increase in natural disease rate and (2) the absolute or attributable risk which represents the difference between the natural rate and the rate associated with the agent in question. Relative risk estimates for ionizing radiation generally are higher than those expressed as the absolute risk. This raises the question of which risk estimator is the most appropriate under different conditions. The absolute risk has generally been used for radiation risk assessment, although mathematical combinations such as the arithmetic or geometric mean of both the absolute and relative risks, have also been used. Combinations of the two risk estimators are not valid because the absolute and relative risk are not independent variables. Both human epidemiologic studies and animal experimental data can be found to illustrate the functional relationship between the natural cancer risk and the risk associated with radiation. This implies that the radiation risk estimate derived from one population may not be appropriate for predictions in another population, unless it is adjusted for the difference in the natural disease incidence between the two populations

  2. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  3. Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ning

    Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is

  4. Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tarp Hansen, Anette; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

    2017-01-01

    The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

  5. Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

    2003-01-01

    of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

  6. Safety in relation to risk and benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddall, E.

    1985-01-01

    The proper definition and quantification of human safety is discussed and from this basis the historical development of our present very high standard of safety is traced. It is shown that increased safety is closely associated with increased wealth, and the quantitative relationship between then is derived from different sources of evidence. When this factor is applied to the production of wealth by industry, a safety benefit is indicated which exceeds the asserted risks by orders of magnitude. It is concluded that present policies and attitudes in respect to the safety of industry may be diametrically wrong. (orig.) [de

  7. Development of new risk based regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, L.

    1999-01-01

    A short presentation of the oil and gas industry in Norway, and a brief overview of the regulatory regime in the petroleum sector in Norway is given. Risk analysis has been performed in Norway since 1981 and the various applications will be described. These risk analyses are quite different from a nuclear PSA and some of these differences will be commented. Risk based optimisation techniques such as RCM (Reliability Centred Maintenance) and Risk Based Inspection is used in the industry, with very limited support from the risk analysis. Some of the limitation that exist when such techniques are imported from other industries will be commented on. NPD (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate) is revising our regulations and some of the future plants when it comes to risk informed regulatory requirements will be presented. (au)

  8. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  9. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  10. Risk based limits for Operational Safety Requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cappucci, A.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    OSR limits are designed to protect the assumptions made in the facility safety analysis in order to preserve the safety envelope during facility operation. Normally, limits are set based on ''worst case conditions'' without regard to the likelihood (frequency) of a credible event occurring. In special cases where the accident analyses are based on ''time at risk'' arguments, it may be desirable to control the time at which the facility is at risk. A methodology has been developed to use OSR limits to control the source terms and the times these source terms would be available, thus controlling the acceptable risk to a nuclear process facility. The methodology defines a new term ''gram-days''. This term represents the area under a source term (inventory) vs time curve which represents the risk to the facility. Using the concept of gram-days (normalized to one year) allows the use of an accounting scheme to control the risk under the inventory vs time curve. The methodology results in at least three OSR limits: (1) control of the maximum inventory or source term, (2) control of the maximum gram-days for the period based on a source term weighted average, and (3) control of the maximum gram-days at the individual source term levels. Basing OSR limits on risk based safety analysis is feasible, and a basis for development of risk based limits is defensible. However, monitoring inventories and the frequencies required to maintain facility operation within the safety envelope may be complex and time consuming

  11. Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

  12. Associations Between Sexual Risk-Related Behaviors and School-Based Education on HIV and Condom Use for Adolescent Sexual Minority Males and Their Non-Sexual-Minority Peers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasberry, Catherine N; Condron, D Susanne; Lesesne, Catherine A; Adkins, Susan Hocevar; Sheremenko, Ganna; Kroupa, Elizabeth

    2018-01-01

    With HIV and sexually transmitted disease (STD) rates disproportionately high among adolescent sexual minority males (ASMM), it is important to understand how school-based sexual health education may relate to sexual risk-related behavior among this population. This analysis explores reported HIV/AIDS- and condom-related education and sexual risk-related behaviors among ASMM and their adolescent non-sexual-minority male (non-ASMM) peers. Students (n = 11,681) from seven Florida high schools completed paper-and-pencil questionnaires. A matched analytic sample of ASMM and non-ASMM students was created by using propensity score-matching techniques (n = 572). Logistic regressions controlling for individual and school characteristics examined reporting having been taught about AIDS or HIV in school, having been taught in school about using condoms, condom use at last sex, HIV/STD testing, and associations between these variables. Compared with matched non-ASMM peers, ASMM students were less likely to report having been taught about AIDS or HIV in school (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, P = 0.04) and having used a condom at last sex (OR = 0.39, P condoms. Among non-ASMM, reporting having been taught in school about using condoms was associated with a greater likelihood of condom use at last sex (OR = 4.78, P education and differential associations between condom-related education and condom use in ASMM and non-ASMM suggest that sexual health education in schools may not be resonating with ASMM and non-ASMM in the same way.

  13. III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

    2017-06-01

    Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Humorous Relations: Attentiveness, Pleasure and Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayo, Cris

    2014-01-01

    This article focuses on the structures of humor and joke telling that require particular kinds of attentiveness and particular relationships between speaker and audience, or more specifically, between classmates. First, I will analyze the pedagogical and relational preconditions that are necessary for humor to work. If humor is to work well, the…

  15. Risk Based Optimal Fatigue Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, M.H.; Kroon, I.B.

    1992-01-01

    Optimal fatigue life testing of materials is considered. Based on minimization of the total expected costs of a mechanical component a strategy is suggested to determine the optimal stress range levels for which additional experiments are to be performed together with an optimal value...

  16. Elderly Taiwanese's Intrinsic Risk Factors for Fall-related Injuries

    OpenAIRE

    In-Fun Li; Yvonne Hsiung; Hui-Fen Hsing; Mei-Yu Lee; Te-Hsin Chang; Ming-Yuan Huang

    2016-01-01

    Background: As a vital issue in geriatric research, risk factors for falls were concluded to be multifactorial, and prevention has been mostly aimed at decreasing situational and environmental risks that cause and aggravate fall-related injuries, particularly within the institutions. While knowledge is limited about older patients' intrinsic determinants, the purpose of this study was to explore elderly Taiwanese's intrinsic risk factors associated with severe fall-related injuries. Method...

  17. Public attitudes towards industrial, work-related and other risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prescott-Clarke, P.

    1982-01-01

    Two reports describing work sponsored by the Health and Safety Executive are presented. The first describes a study of public attitudes towards industrial, work related, nuclear industry related and other risks. The second report describes public attitudes towards the acceptability of risks. (U.K.)

  18. Brain tumour risk in relation to mobile telephone use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Christoffer

    2010-01-01

    The rapid increase in mobile telephone use has generated concern about possible health risks related to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from this technology.......The rapid increase in mobile telephone use has generated concern about possible health risks related to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from this technology....

  19. A model-based risk management framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune

    2002-08-15

    The ongoing research activity addresses these issues through two co-operative activities. The first is the IST funded research project CORAS, where Institutt for energiteknikk takes part as responsible for the work package for Risk Analysis. The main objective of the CORAS project is to develop a framework to support risk assessment of security critical systems. The second, called the Halden Open Dependability Demonstrator (HODD), is established in cooperation between Oestfold University College, local companies and HRP. The objective of HODD is to provide an open-source test bed for testing, teaching and learning about risk analysis methods, risk analysis tools, and fault tolerance techniques. The Inverted Pendulum Control System (IPCON), which main task is to keep a pendulum balanced and controlled, is the first system that has been established. In order to make risk assessment one need to know what a system does, or is intended to do. Furthermore, the risk assessment requires correct descriptions of the system, its context and all relevant features. A basic assumption is that a precise model of this knowledge, based on formal or semi-formal descriptions, such as UML, will facilitate a systematic risk assessment. It is also necessary to have a framework to integrate the different risk assessment methods. The experiences so far support this hypothesis. This report presents CORAS and the CORAS model-based risk management framework, including a preliminary guideline for model-based risk assessment. The CORAS framework for model-based risk analysis offers a structured and systematic approach to identify and assess security issues of ICT systems. From the initial assessment of IPCON, we also believe that the framework is applicable in a safety context. Further work on IPCON, as well as the experiences from the CORAS trials, will provide insight and feedback for further improvements. (Author)

  20. WTS - Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) application supports a new SMS-structured process designed to focus on safety oversight of systems and processes rather than...

  1. Nuclear fuel cycle risk assessment: survey and computer compilation of risk-related literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yates, K.R.; Schreiber, A.M.; Rudolph, A.W.

    1982-10-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has initiated the Fuel Cycle Risk Assessment Program to provide risk assessment methods for assistance in the regulatory process for nuclear fuel cycle facilities other than reactors. Both the once-through cycle and plutonium recycle are being considered. A previous report generated by this program defines and describes fuel cycle facilities, or elements, considered in the program. This report, the second from the program, describes the survey and computer compilation of fuel cycle risk-related literature. Sources of available information on the design, safety, and risk associated with the defined set of fuel cycle elements were searched and documents obtained were catalogued and characterized with respect to fuel cycle elements and specific risk/safety information. Both US and foreign surveys were conducted. Battelle's computer-based BASIS information management system was used to facilitate the establishment of the literature compilation. A complete listing of the literature compilation and several useful indexes are included. Future updates of the literature compilation will be published periodically. 760 annotated citations are included

  2. Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thadani, A.C.

    1997-01-01

    This article summarizes the activities of the Office of Research of the NRC, both from a historical aspect as well as it applies to the application of risk-based decision making. The office has been actively involved in problems related to understanding risks related to core accidents, to understanding the problem of aging of reactor components and materials from years of service, and toward the understanding and analysis of severe accidents. In addition new policy statements regarding the role of risk assessment in regulatory applications has given focus for the need of further work. The NRC has used risk assessment in regulatory questions in the past but in a fairly ad hoc sort of manner. The new policies will clearly require a better defined application of risk assessment, and help for people evaluating applications in judging the applicability of such applications when a component of them is based on risk-based decision making. To address this, standard review plans are being prepared to serve as guides for such questions. In addition, with regulatory decisions being allowed to be based upon risk-based decisions, it is necessary to have an adequate data base prepared, and made publically available, to support such a position

  3. Assessing the risk of work-related international travel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druckman, Myles; Harber, Philip; Liu, Yihang; Quigley, Robert L

    2014-11-01

    To identify factors affecting the likelihood of requiring medical services during international business trips. Data from more than 800,000 international trips and medical assistance cases provided to 48 multinational corporations in 2009. Travel destination countries were grouped into four a priori risk-related categories. Travel to "low" medical risk countries in aggregate accounted for more hospitalizations and medical evacuations than travel to "high" medical risk countries. Nevertheless, the risk per trip was much higher for travel to higher medical risk countries. Corporations with employees on international travel should allocate sufficient resources to manage and ideally prevent medical issues during business travel. Travel medicine must focus on more than infectious diseases, and programs are necessary for both high- and low-risk regions. Improved understanding of travel-related needs determines resource allocation and risk mitigation efforts.

  4. An Empirical Investigation of Risk-Return Relations in Chinese Equity Markets: Evidence from Aggregate and Sectoral Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas C. Chiang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the risk-return relations in Chinese equity markets. Based on a TARCH-M model, evidence shows that stock returns are positively correlated with predictable volatility, supporting the risk-return relation in both aggregate and sectoral markets. Evidence finds a positive relation between stock return and intertemporal downside risk, while controlling for sentiment and liquidity. This study suggests that the U.S. stress risk or the world downside risk should be priced into the Chinese stocks. The paper concludes that the risk-return tradeoff is present in the GARCH-in-mean, local downside risk-return, and global risk-return relations.

  5. Risk related behaviour under different ambient scent conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Gagarina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the effect of two ambient scents (peppermint and vanilla and their intensiveness on risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to identify the relationship of ambient scent type and intensiveness with risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Methodology/methods: 2×2 factorial experiment with control group was run. Ambient scent type (vanilla vs. peppermint and intensiveness (8 (1mg vs. 16 sprays (2mg of scent concentrate in the same room were manipulated as between subject variables. Risk aversion, effect of anchoring heuristic on bidding, and affect (risk and benefit heuristics were tracked as dependent variables. Scientific aim: To identify whether ambient scent type and intensiveness have effect on risk related behaviour. Findings: Evidence suggests that there are effects of ambient scent on risk related behaviour, thus fulfilling the missing gap to relate ambient environment to decision making heuristics when risks are involved. However, not all heuristics were affected by experimental conditions. Subjects were bidding significantly higher amounts under low anchor conditions, when peppermint scent was around (if compared to vanilla group. Affect risk was perceived as lower in peppermint ambient scent conditions, if compared to the control group. Intensity of ambient scent also had influence on affect risk: subjects perceived less risk under high scent intensity conditions. Conclusions: By manipulating ambient scent, marketers may reduce or increase consumers risk perception and behaviour and as a consequence influence their purchase decisions. Marketers could use peppermint scent in high intensiveness in the situations where they want consumers to undertake higher risks (expensive purchases, gambling, insurance, since stakes were higher under peppermint ambient scent condition

  6. Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteleone, S.

    1998-03-01

    This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research

  7. Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monteleone, S. [comp.] [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1998-03-01

    This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research. Selected papers have been indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  8. Buying natural gas in the spot market: risks related to the natural gas industry globalization; Aquisicao de gas natural em bases 'spot': riscos associados a globalizacao da industria do gas natural

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mathias, Melissa Cristina [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Szklo, Alexandre Salem [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Programa de Planejamento Energetico

    2008-07-01

    The growth of the international natural gas trade during the last decade resulted in the expectation that this product would be traded as a commodity. This expectation created a boom in the investments related to the commercialization of natural gas between borders, especially in the distinct segments of the chain of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Different agents launched themselves into liquefaction and regasification enterprises, and the ordering of ships also showed significant growth. Despite that, the natural gas market still cannot be considered global, and international gas transactions are primarily done within regional markets. This article investigates the challenges posed to the constitution of a global natural gas market. These challenges represent risks to the commercialization of this product in spot bases, for the agents that launch themselves into projects to export or import LNG to be commercialized through short term contracts in the international market for this product. (author)

  9. At-Risk and Bilingual Fifth-Grade Students' On-Task Behavior and Conceptual Understanding in Earth Science-Related Topics during Inquiry-, Technology-, and Game-Based Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeal, K.; Vasquez, Y.; Avandano, C.; Moreno, K.; Besinaiz, J.

    2007-12-01

    The Graduate K-12 (GK12) program has been developed by NSF to support the national effort to advance scientific knowledge through educational partnerships. This paper highlights research conducted during the 2006-2007 school year with the Texas A&M University GK12 project. Two elementary schools with very high numbers of at risk students - those who are poor, speak English as their second language, and have a history of failing state-mandated tests were identified to be the field site for the GK12 project. In these two, high-minority (97% and 40% African American and Hispanic) schools, 80% and 56% of the children have been identified by the state as at risk; 94% and 52% are classified as economically disadvantaged; and 46% and 2% are limited English proficient, respectively. In the past year, 30% and 73% of fifth grade students in these schools passed the science portion of the Texas Assessment of Knowledge and Skills (TAKS) test. Data collected during a three- week period where GK12 fellows taught the fifth graders Earth science-related topics is presented. During the implementation, students were engaged in technology-, inquiry-, and game-based activities. Students were divided into low-, medium-, and high-abilities in one school, and regular and bilingual groups in the other. Pre- post open-ended multiple choice tests indicated that all but the low performing students' conceptual understanding (CU) significantly (p significantly improved during the inquiry activity, and the high and bilingual students' CU significantly improved for the game activities. Classroom observation assessments showed that there was a significant (p Significant differences between student groups' CU and on-task behavior indicated that technology-based activities showed greatest differences between the low- ability learners and the other students, whereas, inquiry-based activities tended not to show such extremes. In the case of the bilingual and regular students however, technology-based

  10. On accounting difficulties: Risks related to nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plot, Emmanuelle; Vidal, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    An extreme risk has a very slight probability but potentially heavy consequences. Despite the existence of three accountancy methods for dealing with them (provisions, contingent liabilities and insurance), the transposition of such risks into financial statements is based on a sequential analysis of both the probability of the risk happening and the ability to estimate the effects. This method keeps us from taking into account risks with a highly uncertain probability of occurrence, such as accidents at nuclear power plants - independently of the 'amount' at stake. As management reports from firms concerned by nuclear risks show, the diffusion of qualitative information does not offset this gap in bookkeeping

  11. On accounting difficulties: risks related to nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plot, E.; Vidal, O.

    2014-01-01

    An extreme risk has a very slight probability but potentially heavy consequences. Despite the existence of 3 accountancy methods for dealing with them (provisions, contingent liabilities and insurance), the transposition of such risks into financial statements is based on a sequential analysis of both the probability of the risk happening and the ability to estimate the effects. This method keeps us from taking into account risks with a highly uncertain probability of occurrence, such as accidents at nuclear power plants - independently of the 'amount' at stake. As management reports from firms concerned by nuclear risks show, the diffusion of qualitative information does not offset this gap in bookkeeping. (authors)

  12. Risk of Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Relation to Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathes, Robert; Ito, Kazuhiko; Matte, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine the effects of temperature on cardiovascular-related (CVD) morbidity and mortality among New York City (NYC) residents. Introduction Extreme temperatures are consistently shown to have an effect on CVD-related mortality [1, 2]. A large multi-city study of mortality demonstrated a cold-day and hot-day weather effect on CVD-related deaths, with the larger impact occurring on the coldest days [3]. In contrast, the association between weather and CVD-related morbidity is less clear [4, 5]. The purpose of this study is to characterize the effect of temperature on CVD-related emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and mortality on a large, heterogeneous population. Additionally, we conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the impact of air pollutants, specifically fine particulates (PM2.5) and ozone (O3), along with temperature, on CVD outcomes. Methods We analyzed daily weather conditions, ED visits classified as CVD-related based on chief complaint text, hospitalizations, and natural cause deaths that occurred in NYC between 2002 and 2006. ED visits were obtained from data reported daily to the city health department for syndromic surveillance. Inpatient admissions were obtained from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System, a data reporting system developed by New York State. Mortality data were obtained from the NYC Office of Vital Statistics. Data for PM2.5 and O3 were obtained from all available air quality monitors within the five boroughs of NYC. To estimate risk of CVD morbidity and mortality, we used generalized linear models using a Poisson distribution to calculate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A non-linear distributed lag was used to model mean temperature in order to allow for its effect on the same day and on subsequent days. Models were fit separately for cold season (October through March) and warm season (April through September) given season may modify the effect on CVD

  13. Relative risk analysis of several manufactured nanomaterials: an insurance industry context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robichaud, Christine Ogilvie; Tanzil, Dicksen; Weilenmann, Ulrich; Wiesner, Mark R

    2005-11-15

    A relative risk assessment is presented for the industrial fabrication of several nanomaterials. The production processes for five nanomaterials were selected for this analysis, based on their current or near-term potential for large-scale production and commercialization: single-walled carbon nanotubes, bucky balls (C60), one variety of quantum dots, alumoxane nanoparticles, and nano-titanium dioxide. The assessment focused on the activities surrounding the fabrication of nanomaterials, exclusive of any impacts or risks with the nanomaterials themselves. A representative synthesis method was selected for each nanomaterial based on its potential for scaleup. A list of input materials, output materials, and waste streams for each step of fabrication was developed and entered into a database that included key process characteristics such as temperature and pressure. The physical-chemical properties and quantities of the inventoried materials were used to assess relative risk based on factors such as volatility, carcinogenicity, flammability, toxicity, and persistence. These factors were first used to qualitatively rank risk, then combined using an actuarial protocol developed by the insurance industry for the purpose of calculating insurance premiums for chemical manufacturers. This protocol ranks three categories of risk relative to a 100 point scale (where 100 represents maximum risk): incident risk, normal operations risk, and latent contamination risk. Results from this analysis determined that relative environmental risk from manufacturing each of these five materials was comparatively low in relation to other common industrial manufacturing processes.

  14. Risk Classification and Risk-based Safety and Mission Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse A.

    2014-01-01

    Recent activities to revamp and emphasize the need to streamline processes and activities for Class D missions across the agency have led to various interpretations of Class D, including the lumping of a variety of low-cost projects into Class D. Sometimes terms such as Class D minus are used. In this presentation, mission risk classifications will be traced to official requirements and definitions as a measure to ensure that projects and programs align with the guidance and requirements that are commensurate for their defined risk posture. As part of this, the full suite of risk classifications, formal and informal will be defined, followed by an introduction to the new GPR 8705.4 that is currently under review.GPR 8705.4 lays out guidance for the mission success activities performed at the Classes A-D for NPR 7120.5 projects as well as for projects not under NPR 7120.5. Furthermore, the trends in stepping from Class A into higher risk posture classifications will be discussed. The talk will conclude with a discussion about risk-based safety and mission assuranceat GSFC.

  15. Events per variable for risk differences and relative risks using pseudo-observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan Nygaard; Andersen, Per Kragh; Parner, Erik Thorlund

    2014-01-01

    A method based on pseudo-observations has been proposed for direct regression modeling of functionals of interest with right-censored data, including the survival function, the restricted mean and the cumulative incidence function in competing risks. The models, once the pseudo-observations have...... been computed, can be fitted using standard generalized estimating equation software. Regression models can however yield problematic results if the number of covariates is large in relation to the number of events observed. Guidelines of events per variable are often used in practice. These rules...

  16. Risk-based and deterministic regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, L.E.; Brown, N.W.

    1995-07-01

    Both risk-based and deterministic methods are used for regulating the nuclear industry to protect the public safety and health from undue risk. The deterministic method is one where performance standards are specified for each kind of nuclear system or facility. The deterministic performance standards address normal operations and design basis events which include transient and accident conditions. The risk-based method uses probabilistic risk assessment methods to supplement the deterministic one by (1) addressing all possible events (including those beyond the design basis events), (2) using a systematic, logical process for identifying and evaluating accidents, and (3) considering alternative means to reduce accident frequency and/or consequences. Although both deterministic and risk-based methods have been successfully applied, there is need for a better understanding of their applications and supportive roles. This paper describes the relationship between the two methods and how they are used to develop and assess regulations in the nuclear industry. Preliminary guidance is suggested for determining the need for using risk based methods to supplement deterministic ones. However, it is recommended that more detailed guidance and criteria be developed for this purpose

  17. The evolution of risk perceptions related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy--Canadian consumer and producer behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun; Goddard, Ellen

    2011-01-01

    In this study the dynamics of risk perceptions related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) held by Canadian consumers and cow-calf producers were evaluated. Since the first domestic case of BSE in 2003, Canadian consumers and cow-calf producers have needed to make decisions on whether or not their purchasing/production behavior should change. Such changes in their behavior may relate to their levels of risk perceptions about BSE, risk perceptions that may be evolving over time and be affected by BSE media information available. An econometric analysis of the behavior of consumers and cow-calf producers might identify the impacts of evolving BSE risk perceptions. Risk perceptions related to BSE are evaluated through observed market behavior, an approach that differs from traditional stated preference approaches to eliciting risk perceptions at a particular point in time. BSE risk perceptions may be specified following a Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) derived from sociology, psychology, and economics. Based on the SARF, various quality and quantity indices related to BSE media information are used as explanatory variables in risk perception equations. Risk perceptions are approximated using a predictive difference approach as defined by Liu et al. (1998). Results showed that Canadian consumer and cow-calf producer risk perceptions related to BSE have been amplified or attenuated by both quantity and quality of BSE media information. Government policies on risk communications need to address the different roles of BSE information in Canadian consumers' and cow-calf producers' behavior.

  18. An Empirical Investigation of Risk-Return Relations in Chinese Equity Markets: Evidence from Aggregate and Sectoral Data

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas C. Chiang; Yuanqing Zhang

    2018-01-01

    This paper investigates the risk-return relations in Chinese equity markets. Based on a TARCH-M model, evidence shows that stock returns are positively correlated with predictable volatility, supporting the risk-return relation in both aggregate and sectoral markets. Evidence finds a positive relation between stock return and intertemporal downside risk, while controlling for sentiment and liquidity. This study suggests that the U.S. stress risk or the world downside risk should be priced int...

  19. Effects of trust and governance on relational risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nooteboom, B.; Berger, J.; Noorderhaven, N.G.

    In transaction cost economics, foist has been treated as redundant or even misleading. This study tested the effects of governance and trust the risk perceived by agents of firms in alliances. Two dimensions of relational risk were assessed: the probability that something will go wrong and the size

  20. Beyond the contract: managing risk in supply chain relations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, H.C.; Sakaguchi, J.; Kawai, T.

    2013-01-01

    As a consequence of the development of intensified relations with suppliers, for many firms the supply chain has become a significant source of risk exposure. In this paper we examine firms' use of control practices to manage risks associated with intensified collaboration with supply chain

  1. Literature search on risks related to ionizing radiations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abou Anoma, G.; Bijaoui, A.; Gauron, C.

    2013-09-01

    The authors propose a selection of information sources regarding risks related to ionizing radiations. They present knowledge bases which can be found on different Internet sites belonging to different bodies and agencies (IRSN, CEA, INRS, SFRP, CNRS, Radioprotection Cirkus, EDF) and in different books. They present information sources dealing with radionuclides which can be found in French and international Internet sites and in books, information sources concerning different professional activities and sectors (ASN, IRSN, INRS, medical-professional sheets proposed by the CISME, sheets proposed by the Labour Ministry and other bodies). It presents information sources dealing with radiological incidents, accidents and emergencies, dealing with radioactive wastes, with the legal European and French framework. Some additional tools of general or more detailed information are indicated (CIPR, IAEA, UNSCAR, IRPA, IRSN, SFRP, CEA, CEPN, Radiation Cirkus, books). Ways to get an updated search are indicated for different databases, as well as some practical services

  2. Risk related behaviour under different ambient scent conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Alina Gagarina; Indre Pikturniene

    2016-01-01

    The article analyses the effect of two ambient scents (peppermint and vanilla) and their intensiveness on risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to identify the relationship of ambient scent type and intensiveness with risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Methodology/methods: 2×2 factorial experiment with control group was run. Ambi...

  3. Estimating internal exposure risks by the relative risk and the National Institute of Health risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehta, S.K.; Sarangapani, R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents tabulations of risk (R) and person-years of life lost (PYLL) for acute exposures of individual organs at ages 20 and 40 yrs for the Indian and Japanese populations to illustrate the effect of age at exposure in the two models. Results are also presented for the organ wise nominal probability coefficients (NPC) and PYLL for individual organs for the age distributed Indian population by the two models. The results presented show that for all organs the estimates of PYLL and NPC for the Indian population are lower than those for the Japanese population by both models except for oesophagus, breast and ovary by the relative risk (RR) model, where the opposite trend is observed. The results also show that the Indian all-cancer values of NPC averaged over the two models is 2.9 x 10 -2 Sv -1 , significantly lower than the world average value of 5x10 -2 Sv -1 estimated by the ICRP. (author). 9 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  4. Perception of mobile phone and base station risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegrist, Michael; Earle, Timothy C; Gutscher, Heinz; Keller, Carmen

    2005-10-01

    Perceptions of risks associated with mobile phones, base stations, and other sources of electromagnetic fields (EMF) were examined. Data from a telephone survey conducted in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland are presented (N = 1,015). Participants assessed both risks and benefits associated with nine different sources of EMF. Trust in the authorities regulating these hazards was assessed as well. In addition, participants answered a set of questions related to attitudes toward EMF and toward mobile phone base stations. According to respondents' assessments, high-voltage transmission lines are the most risky source of EMF. Mobile phones and mobile phone base stations received lower risk ratings. Results showed that trust in authorities was positively associated with perceived benefits and negatively associated with perceived risks. People who use their mobile phones frequently perceived lower risks and higher benefits than people who use their mobile phones infrequently. People who believed they lived close to a base station did not significantly differ in their level of risks associated with mobile phone base stations from people who did not believe they lived close to a base station. Regarding risk regulation, a majority of participants were in favor of fixing limiting values based on the worst-case scenario. Correlations suggest that belief in paranormal phenomena is related to level of perceived risks associated with EMF. Furthermore, people who believed that most chemical substances cause cancer also worried more about EMF than people who did not believe that chemical substances are that harmful. Practical implications of the results are discussed.

  5. Study of a risk-based piping inspection guideline system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tien, Shiaw-Wen; Hwang, Wen-Tsung; Tsai, Chih-Hung

    2007-02-01

    A risk-based inspection system and a piping inspection guideline model were developed in this study. The research procedure consists of two parts--the building of a risk-based inspection model for piping and the construction of a risk-based piping inspection guideline model. Field visits at the plant were conducted to develop the risk-based inspection and strategic analysis system. A knowledge-based model had been built in accordance with international standards and local government regulations, and the rational unified process was applied for reducing the discrepancy in the development of the models. The models had been designed to analyze damage factors, damage models, and potential damage positions of piping in the petrochemical plants. The purpose of this study was to provide inspection-related personnel with the optimal planning tools for piping inspections, hence, to enable effective predictions of potential piping risks and to enhance the better degree of safety in plant operations that the petrochemical industries can be expected to achieve. A risk analysis was conducted on the piping system of a petrochemical plant. The outcome indicated that most of the risks resulted from a small number of pipelines.

  6. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  7. Climate risk assessment in museums : degradation risks determined from temperature and relative humidity data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martens, M.H.J.

    2012-01-01

    The main subject of this thesis is the determination of climate risks to objects in museums on the basis of measured and/or simulated temperature and relative humidity data. The focus is on the quantification of climate related risks for the preservation quality of indoor climate in Dutch museums.

  8. A risk-based sensor placement methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ronald W.; Kulesz, James J.

    2008-01-01

    A risk-based sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors to protect population against the exposure to, and effects of, known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Risk is calculated as a quantitative value representing population at risk from exposure at standard exposure levels. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as the frequency of wind speed and direction pairs. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate risk values. Sensor locations are determined via an iterative dynamic programming algorithm whereby threats detected by sensors placed in prior iterations are removed from consideration in subsequent iterations. In addition to the risk-based placement algorithm, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor. This is the fraction of the total risk accounted for by placement of the sensor. Thus, the criteria for halting the iterative process can be the number of sensors available, a threshold marginal utility value, and/or a minimum cumulative utility achieved with all sensors

  9. Risk communication related to animal products derived from biotechnology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCrea, D

    2005-04-01

    Previous chapters of this review have dealt with the key considerations related to the application of biotechnology in veterinary science and animal production. This article explores the theory and practice of risk communication and sets out the basic principles for good risk communication when dealing with new technologies, uncertainty, and cautious and sceptical consumers. After failure to communicate with consumers and stakeholders about the risk to human health from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the 1990s, Government Agencies in the United Kingdom have made significant improvements in risk communication. The official inquiry that followed the BSE crisis concluded that a policy of openness was the correct approach, and this article emphasises the importance of consultation, consistency and transparency. There are, however, many different factors that affect public perception of risk (religious, political, social, cultural, etc.) and developing effective risk communication strategies must take all of these complex issues into consideration.

  10. Risk-based regulation: A regulatory perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scarborough, J.C.

    1993-01-01

    In the early development of regulations for nuclear power plants, risk was implicitly considered through qualitative assessments and engineering reliability principles and practices. Examples included worst case analysis, defense in depth, and the single failure criterion. However, the contributions of various systems, structures, components and operator actions to plant safety were not explicitly assessed since a methodology for this purpose had not been developed. As a consequence of the TMI accident, the use of more quantitative risk methodology and information in regulation such as probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) increased. The use of both qualitative and quantitative consideration of risk in regulation has been a set of regulations and regulatory guides and practices that ensure adequate protection of public health and safety. Presently, the development of PRA techniques has developed to the point that safety goals, expressed in terms of risk, have been established to help guide further regulatory decision making. This paper presents the personal opinions of the author as regards the use of risk today in nuclear power plant regulation, areas of further information needs, and necessary plans for moving toward a more systematic use of risk-based information in regulatory initiatives in the future

  11. Risk-based plant performance indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boccio, J.L.; Azarm, M.A.; Hall, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    Tasked by the 1979 President's Commission on the Accident at Three Mile Island, the U.S. nuclear power industry has put into place a performance indicator program as one means for showing a demonstrable record of achievement. Largely through the efforts of the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO), plant performance data has, since 1983, been collected and analyzed to aid utility management in measuring their plants' performance progress. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has also developed a set of performance indicators. This program, conducted by NRC's Office for the Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD), is structured to present information on plant operational performance in a manner that could enhance the staff's ability to recognize changes in the safety performance. Both organizations recognized that performance indicators have limitations and could be subject to misinterpretation and misuse with the potential for an adverse impact on safety. This paper reports on performance indicators presently in use, e.g., unplanned automatic scrams, unplanned safety system actuation, safety system failures, etc., which are logically related to safety. But, a reliability/risk-based method for evaluating either individual indicators or an aggregated set of indicators is not yet available

  12. Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

    1975-10-01

    'Risk of damage' and 'exposure risk' are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the 'exposure risk' on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Basing upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high 'exposure risk'. As a consequence the following recommendations are given for discussion: (a) occupationally exposed persons with small 'exposure risk' should be monitored using only a long-term dosimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence dosimeter), (b) in the case of internal exposure the surface and, if necessary, air contamination should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed. (author)

  13. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  14. Prenatal stress exposure related to maternal bereavement and risk of childhood overweight

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Jiong; Olsen, Jørn; Vestergaard, Mogens

    2010-01-01

    It has been suggested that prenatal stress contributes to the risk of obesity later in life. In a population-based cohort study, we examined whether prenatal stress related to maternal bereavement during pregnancy was associated with the risk of overweight in offspring during school age....

  15. Alcohol-Related Problems And High Risk Sexual Behaviour In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There was a significant association between alcohol-related problems and risky sexual behavior. Alcohol-related problems are fairly common in people already infected with HIV/AIDS and are associated with high-risk sexual behavior. Thus, screening and treatment should be part of an effective HIV intervention program.

  16. 12 CFR 567.6 - Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital credit risk-weight... CAPITAL Regulatory Capital Requirements § 567.6 Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories. (a) Risk...)(2) of this section), plus risk-weighted recourse obligations, direct credit substitutes, and certain...

  17. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tervonen, Tommi; Linkov, Igor; Figueira, Jose Rui; Steevens, Jeffery; Chappell, Mark; Merad, Myriam

    2009-01-01

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  18. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tervonen, Tommi, E-mail: t.p.tervonen@rug.n [University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business (Netherlands); Linkov, Igor, E-mail: igor.linkov@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Figueira, Jose Rui, E-mail: figueira@ist.utl.p [Technical University of Lisbon, CEG-IST, Centre for Management Studies, Instituto Superior Tecnico (Portugal); Steevens, Jeffery, E-mail: jeffery.a.steevens@usace.army.mil; Chappell, Mark, E-mail: mark.a.chappell@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Merad, Myriam, E-mail: myriam.merad@ineris.f [INERIS BP 2, Societal Management of Risks Unit/Accidental Risks Division (France)

    2009-05-15

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  19. Using prior risk-related knowledge to support risk management decisions: lessons learnt from a tunneling project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cárdenas, Ibsen Chivatá; Al-Jibouri, Saad S H; Halman, Johannes I M; van de Linde, Wim; Kaalberg, Frank

    2014-10-01

    The authors of this article have developed six probabilistic causal models for critical risks in tunnel works. The details of the models' development and evaluation were reported in two earlier publications of this journal. Accordingly, as a remaining step, this article is focused on the investigation into the use of these models in a real case study project. The use of the models is challenging given the need to provide information on risks that usually are both project and context dependent. The latter is of particular concern in underground construction projects. Tunnel risks are the consequences of interactions between site- and project-specific factors. Large variations and uncertainties in ground conditions as well as project singularities give rise to particular risk factors with very specific impacts. These circumstances mean that existing risk information, gathered from previous projects, is extremely difficult to use in other projects. This article considers these issues and addresses the extent to which prior risk-related knowledge, in the form of causal models, as the models developed for the investigation, can be used to provide useful risk information for the case study project. The identification and characterization of the causes and conditions that lead to failures and their interactions as well as their associated probabilistic information is assumed to be risk-related knowledge in this article. It is shown that, irrespective of existing constraints on using information and knowledge from past experiences, construction risk-related knowledge can be transferred and used from project to project in the form of comprehensive models based on probabilistic-causal relationships. The article also shows that the developed models provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures by means of the identification of critical risk factors, and therefore they support risk management decisions. Similarly, a number of limitations of the models are

  20. 76 FR 13902 - Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing Regulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-15

    ... TRADE COMMISSION 16 CFR Parts 640 and 698 RIN R411009 Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing... respective risk-based pricing rules to require disclosure of credit scores and information relating to credit scores in risk-based pricing notices if a credit score of the consumer is used in setting the material...

  1. Binge drinking among adolescents: prevalence, risk practices and related variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golpe, Sandra; Isorna, Manuel; Barreiro, Carmen; Braña, Teresa; Rial, Antonio

    2017-09-29

    According to the last Survey on Drug Use among Secondary School Students (ESTUDES 2014-2015), consumption levels of alcohol and other substances have decreased in the last years in Spain. However, available data on binge drinking remain worrying, given the negative consequences related with this pattern. The aim of this paper is to analyse binge drinking among adolescents, providing updated data on prevalence in addition to information about the consequences and some predictive factors of binge drinking. A correlational method was used for this purpose, comprised of administering a survey to Compulsory Secondary School, High School and Vocational Training students. Based on a sample of 3,419 Galician adolescents aged between 12 and 18 years (M = 14.57; SD = 1.76), the results show that binge drinking is a common and global practice, with few socio-demographic differences but related with a wide range of risk practices. Furthermore, variables such as consumption expectancies, consumption by family and friends, as well as curfew time and allowance money have been identified as interesting predictive factors that should be taken into account at the preventive level.

  2. Risk of bleeding related to antithrombotic treatment in cardiovascular disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Rikke; Olesen, Jonas B; Charlot, Mette

    2012-01-01

    Antithrombotic therapy is a cornerstone of treatment in patients with cardiovascular disease with bleeding being the most feared complication. This review describes the risk of bleeding related to different combinations of antithrombotic drugs used for cardiovascular disease: acute coronary...... syndrome (ACS), atrial fibrillation (AF), cerebrovascular (CVD) and peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Different risk assessment schemes and bleeding definitions are compared. The HAS-BLED risk score is recommended in patients with AF and in ACS patients with AF. In patients with ACS with or without...

  3. Occupational noise, smoking, and a high body mass index are risk factors for age-related hearing impairment and moderate alcohol consumption is protective: A European population-based multicenter study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fransen, E.; Topsakal, V.; Hendrickx, J.J.

    2008-01-01

    A multicenter study was set up to elucidate the environmental and medical risk factors contributing to age-related hearing impairment (ARHI). Nine subsamples, collected by nine audiological centers across Europe, added up to a total of 4,083 subjects between 53 and 67 years. Audiometric data (pur...... as well as in the low frequencies. The results suggest that a healthy lifestyle can protect against age-related hearing impairment Udgivelsesdato: 2008/9...

  4. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Anesthesiologist- and System-Related Risk Factors for Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Anesthesia-Related Cardiac Arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zgleszewski, Steven E; Graham, Dionne A; Hickey, Paul R; Brustowicz, Robert M; Odegard, Kirsten C; Koka, Rahul; Seefelder, Christian; Navedo, Andres T; Randolph, Adrienne G

    2016-02-01

    Pediatric anesthesia-related cardiac arrest (ARCA) is an uncommon but potentially preventable adverse event. Infants and children with more severe underlying disease are at highest risk. We aimed to identify system- and anesthesiologist-related risk factors for ARCA. We analyzed a prospectively collected patient cohort data set of anesthetics administered from 2000 to 2011 to children at a large tertiary pediatric hospital. Pre-procedure systemic disease level was characterized by ASA physical status (ASA-PS). Two reviewers independently reviewed cardiac arrests and categorized their anesthesia relatedness. Factors associated with ARCA in the univariate analyses were identified for reevaluation after adjustment for patient age and ASA-PS. Cardiac arrest occurred in 142 of 276,209 anesthetics (incidence 5.1/10,000 anesthetics); 72 (2.6/10,000 anesthetics) were classified as anesthesia-related. In the univariate analyses, risk of ARCA was much higher in cardiac patients and for anesthesiologists with lower annual caseload and/or fewer annual days delivering anesthetics (all P risk adjustment for ASA-PS ≥ III and age ≤ 6 months, however, the association with lower annual days delivering anesthetics remained (P = 0.03), but the other factors were no longer significant. Case-mix explained most associations between higher risk of pediatric ARCA and anesthesiologist-related variables at our institution, but the association with fewer annual days delivering anesthetics remained. Our findings highlight the need for rigorous adjustment for patient risk factors in anesthesia patient safety studies.

  6. The perception of risks related to electricity generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Midden, C J; Daamen, D D; Verplanken, B

    1987-01-01

    Some of the key findings are discussed of psychological research on the perception of risks and attitudes with respect to the use of uranium and coal for electricity generation. It appears that attitudes are mostly not based on ideology but rather determined by a trade-off of expected risks and advantages. Lay estimates of probabilities are compared with expert judgements. In the last section attitudes of people living near existing or planned power plants are analyzed. Serious doubts are raised about the possibilities to give residents economic compensation for exposure to risks. 1 fig., 29 refs.

  7. Risk-based optimization of land reclamation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van; Peters, D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale land reclamations are generally constructed by means of a landfill well above mean sea level. This can be costly in areas where good quality fill material is scarce. An alternative to save materials and costs is a ‘polder terminal’. The quay wall acts as a flood defense and the terminal level is well below the level of the quay wall. Compared with a conventional terminal, the costs are lower, but an additional flood risk is introduced. In this paper, a risk-based optimization is developed for a conventional and a polder terminal. It considers the investment and residual flood risk. The method takes into account both the quay wall and terminal level, which determine the probability and damage of flooding. The optimal quay wall level is found by solving a Lambert function numerically. The terminal level is bounded by engineering boundary conditions, i.e. piping and uplift of the cover layer of the terminal yard. It is found that, for a representative case study, the saving of reclamation costs for a polder terminal is larger than the increase of flood risk. The model is applicable to other cases of land reclamation and to similar optimization problems in flood risk management. - Highlights: • A polder terminal can be an attractive alternative for a conventional terminal. • A polder terminal is feasible at locations with high reclamation cost. • A risk-based approach is required to determine the optimal protection levels. • The depth of the polder terminal yard is bounded by uplifting of the cover layer. • This paper can support decisions regarding alternatives for port expansions.

  8. Practical risk-based decision making: Good decisions made efficiently

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haire, M.J.; Guthrie, V.; Walker, D.; Singer, R.

    1995-01-01

    The Robotics and Process Systems Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Westinghouse Savannah River Company have teamed with JBF Associates, Inc. to address risk-based robotic planning. The objective of the project is to provide systematic, risk-based relative comparisons of competing alternatives for solving clean-up problems at DOE facilities. This paper presents the methodology developed, describes the software developed to efficiently apply the methodology, and discusses the results of initial applications for DOE. The paper also addresses current work in applying the approach to problems in other industries (including an example from the hydrocarbon processing industry)

  9. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2016-01-01

    In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

  10. New approach for risk based inspection of H2S based Process Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Sharma, Pavan K.; Santosh, T.V.; Hari Prasad, M.; Vaze, K.K.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Study looks into improving the consequence evaluation in risk based inspection. • Ways to revise the quantity factors used in qualitative approach. • New approach based on computational fluid dynamics along with probit mathematics. • Demonstrated this methodology along with a suitable case study for the said issue. - Abstract: Recent trend in risk informed and risk based approaches in life management issues have certainly put the focus on developing estimation methods for real risk. Idea of employing risk as an optimising measure for in-service inspection, termed as risk based inspection, was accepted in principle from late 80s. While applying risk based inspection, consequence of failure from each component needs to be assessed. Consequence evaluation in a Process Plant is a crucial task. It may be noted that, in general, the number of components to be considered for life management is very large and hence the consequence evaluation resulting from their failures (individually) is a laborious task. Screening of critical components is usually carried out using simplified qualitative approach, which primarily uses influence factors for categorisation. This necessitates logical formulation of influence factors and their ranges with a suitable technical basis for acceptance from regulators. This paper describes application of risk based inspection for H 2 S based Process Plant along with the approach devised for handling the influence factor related to the quantity of H 2 S released

  11. 13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based Lender...

  12. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  13. Heterogenous Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution and Relative Risk Aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia; Gayle, Wayne-Roy

    This paper investigates the existence and degree of variation across house holds and over time in the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) and the coefficient of relative risk aversion (RRA) that is generated by habit forming preferences. To do so, we develop a new nonlinear GMM estimator...... in food consumption. Using these estimates, we develop bounds for the expectation of the implied heterogenous intertemporal elasticity of substitution and relative risk aversion that account for measurement errors and compute asymptotically valid confidence intervals on these bounds. We find...

  14. Cancer-related fatigue: Mechanisms, risk factors, and treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Julienne E.

    2015-01-01

    Fatigue is one of the most common and distressing side effects of cancer and its treatment, and may persist for years after treatment completion in otherwise healthy survivors. Cancer-related fatigue causes disruption in all aspects of quality of life and may be a risk factor for reduced survival. The prevalence and course of fatigue in cancer patients has been well characterized, and there is growing understanding of underlying biological mechanisms. Inflammation has emerged as a key biological pathway for cancer-related fatigue, with studies documenting links between markers of inflammation and fatigue before, during, and particularly after treatment. There is considerable variability in the experience of cancer-related fatigue that is not explained by disease- or treatment-related characteristics, suggesting that host factors may play an important role in the development and persistence of this symptom. Indeed, longitudinal studies have begun to identify genetic, biological, psychosocial, and behavioral risk factors for cancer-related fatigue. Given the multi-factorial nature of cancer-related fatigue, a variety of intervention approaches have been examined in randomized controlled trials, including physical activity, psychosocial, mind-body, and pharmacological treatments. Although there is currently no gold standard for treating fatigue, several of these approaches have shown beneficial effects and can be recommended to patients. This report provides a state of the science review of mechanisms, risk factors, and interventions for cancer-related fatigue, with a focus on recent longitudinal studies and randomized trials that have targeted fatigued patients. PMID:25113839

  15. Sensation seeking related to varied definition of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dastol, O.U.; Drottz-Sjoberg, B.M.

    1998-01-01

    This pilot study is based on the assumption that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. It has been shown in previous risk perception studies that some people report their definition or normal use of the concept of risk as e.g. mainly probability, a combination of probability and consequences, mainly consequences, or due to the nature of the event (Drottz-Sjoeberg, 1991). Another field of research has developed measures for personality traits, i.e. facets of Sensation Seeking; Disinhibition, Thrill and Adventure Seeking, Experience Seeking, and Boredom Susceptibility (Zuckerman, 1994). The design of the present study involved three independent groups of first year psychology students (N=93). They were presented with one of three response formats regarding their normal use of the word risk, i.e. an open-ended format, separate ratings of four items suggesting a definition of risk on five-point scales, and one single five-point scale with the extremes labelled probability and consequences, and with their combination as the scale mid-point. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was 'danger', but among the responses were also 'chance', and 'outcome'. Another finding was that people who defined risk as 'outcome' and 'chance', using the open-ended format tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale than those who defined risk as 'danger'. In addition, subjects who defined risk as the 'combination' of probability and consequences, using other response formats, also tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale (SSS), especially as compared to those defining risk as the 'probability' of an event. (authors)

  16. Are we overestimating the stroke risk related to contraceptive pills?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gompel, Anne; Plu-Bureau, Genevieve

    2014-02-01

    Hormonal contraceptives are used by million of women worldwide. Ischemic stroke is one of the major harmful effects of hormonal contraceptives, but remains a very uncommon disease before menopause. The increased risk of stroke under third and fourth-generation contraceptive pills and nonoral contraceptives has been recently highlighted. Given the benefits associated with combined hormonal contraceptives (COCs), it is important to properly evaluate their risks in order to provide a better benefit/risk balance to young women. Scarce studies addressing the rates of stroke in young women suggest that the fraction attributable to the contraceptive pill remains low. In contrast, there is abundant literature on the relative risks of stroke under COCs. The risk of arterial disease seems to be similar among users of second and third-generation pills, drospirenone-containing pills and nonoral hormonal contraceptives. Progestin-only contraceptives do not appear to be associated with an increased risk of stroke. New formulations of hormonal contraceptives are not safer than second-generation COCs. Even if the absolute numbers of strokes attributable to hormonal contraceptives is very low, stringent selection of patients should help to reduce the events still more, and progestin-only contraceptives/nonhormonal methods should be preferred in cases of associated risk factors.

  17. Risk of bleeding related to antithrombotic treatment in cardiovascular disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Rikke; Olesen, Jonas B; Charlot, Mette

    2012-01-01

    Antithrombotic therapy is a cornerstone of treatment in patients with cardiovascular disease with bleeding being the most feared complication. This review describes the risk of bleeding related to different combinations of antithrombotic drugs used for cardiovascular disease: acute coronary...... syndrome (ACS), atrial fibrillation (AF), cerebrovascular (CVD) and peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Different risk assessment schemes and bleeding definitions are compared. The HAS-BLED risk score is recommended in patients with AF and in ACS patients with AF. In patients with ACS with or without...... a stent dual antiplatelet therapy with a P2Y12 receptor antagonist and acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) is recommended for 12 months, preferable with prasugrel or ticagrelor unless there is an additional indication of warfarin or increased risk of bleeding. In patients with AF, warfarin is recommended...

  18. Human capital and risk aversion in relational incentive contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kvaloey, Ola

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines a self-enforced relational incentive contract between a risk neutral principal and a risk averse agent where the agent's human capital is essential in ex post realization of values. I analyse the effect of outside options on the optimal bonus level, showing how the presence of ex post outside options may impede desirable degrees of performance pay. The effect of risk aversion and incentive responsiveness is analysed by allowing for linear contracts. I show that the first order effect of these parameters are the same as in verifiable contracts, but second order effects show that the optimal bonus level's sensitivity to risk aversion and incentive responsiveness increases with the discount factor. The analysis has interesting implications on firm boundaries and specificity choices. (author)

  19. Malaria in Africa: vector species' niche models and relative risk maps.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Moffett

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available A central theoretical goal of epidemiology is the construction of spatial models of disease prevalence and risk, including maps for the potential spread of infectious disease. We provide three continent-wide maps representing the relative risk of malaria in Africa based on ecological niche models of vector species and risk analysis at a spatial resolution of 1 arc-minute (9 185 275 cells of approximately 4 sq km. Using a maximum entropy method we construct niche models for 10 malaria vector species based on species occurrence records since 1980, 19 climatic variables, altitude, and land cover data (in 14 classes. For seven vectors (Anopheles coustani, A. funestus, A. melas, A. merus, A. moucheti, A. nili, and A. paludis these are the first published niche models. We predict that Central Africa has poor habitat for both A. arabiensis and A. gambiae, and that A. quadriannulatus and A. arabiensis have restricted habitats in Southern Africa as claimed by field experts in criticism of previous models. The results of the niche models are incorporated into three relative risk models which assume different ecological interactions between vector species. The "additive" model assumes no interaction; the "minimax" model assumes maximum relative risk due to any vector in a cell; and the "competitive exclusion" model assumes the relative risk that arises from the most suitable vector for a cell. All models include variable anthrophilicity of vectors and spatial variation in human population density. Relative risk maps are produced from these models. All models predict that human population density is the critical factor determining malaria risk. Our method of constructing relative risk maps is equally general. We discuss the limits of the relative risk maps reported here, and the additional data that are required for their improvement. The protocol developed here can be used for any other vector-borne disease.

  20. Assessment of Credit Risk Approaches in Relation with Competitiveness Increase of the Banking Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cipovová Eva

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The article is focused on a presentation and analysis of selected methods of credit risk management in relation with competitiveness increase of the banking sector. The article is defined credit risk approaches under the Basel III gradually. Aim of this contribution constitutes various methods of credit risk management and effects of their usage on regulatory capital amount in respect of corporate exposures. Optimal equity amount in relation to the risk portfolio presents an essential prerequisite of performance and competitiveness growth of commercial banks. Gradually capital requirements using Standardized Approach and Internal Based Approach in a case of used and unused techniques of credit risk reduce has been quantified. We presume that sophisticated approach means significant saving for bank’s equity which increases competitiveness of banking sector also. Within the article, quantification of capital savings in case of Standardized (with and without assigned external ratings and Foundation Internal Based Approach at the selected credit portfolio has been effected.

  1. Using risk based tools in emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, B.W.; Ferns, K.G.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques are used by the nuclear industry to model the potential response of a reactor subjected to unusual conditions. The knowledge contained in these models can aid in emergency response decision making. This paper presents requirements for a PRA based emergency response support system to date. A brief discussion of published work provides background for a detailed description of recent developments. A rapid deep assessment capability for specific portions of full plant models is presented. The program uses a screening rule base to control search space expansion in a combinational algorithm

  2. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  3. Application of risk-based methodologies to prioritize safety resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahn, F.J.; Sursock, J.P.; Hosler, J.

    1993-01-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) started a program entitled risk-based prioritization in 1992. The purpose of this program is to provide generic technical support to the nuclear power industry relative to its recent initiatives in the area of operations and maintenance (O ampersand M) cost control using state-of-the-art risk methods. The approach uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), or similar techniques, to allocate resources commensurate with the risk posed by nuclear plant operations. Specifically, those items or events that have high risk significance would receive the most attention, while those with little risk content would command fewer resources. As quantified in a companion paper,close-quote the potential O ampersand M cost reduction inherent in this approach is very large. Furthermore, risk-based methods should also lead to safety improvements. This paper outlines the way that the EPRI technical work complements the technical, policy, and regulatory initiatives taken by others in the industry and provides an example of the approach as used to prioritize motor-operated valve (MOV) testing in response to US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Generic Letter 89-10

  4. [Occupational risk related to optical radiation exposure in construction workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobba, F; Modenese, A

    2012-01-01

    Optical Radiation is a relevant occupational risk in construction workers, mainly as a consequence of the exposure to the ultraviolet (UV) component of solar radiation (SR). Available data show that UV occupational limits are frequently exceeded in these workers, resulting in an increased occupational risk of various acute and chronic effects, mainly to skin and to the eye. One of the foremost is the carcinogenic effect: SR is indeed included in Group 1 IARC (carcinogenic to humans). UV exposure is related to an increase of the incidence of basal cell carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma of the skin and cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). The incidence of these tumors, especially CMM, is constantly increasing in Caucasians in the last 50 years. As a conclusion, an adequate evaluation of the occupational risk related to SR, and adequate preventive measures are essential in construction workers. The role of occupational physicians in prevention is fundamental.

  5. Helicobacter pylori-related chronic gastritis as a risk factor for colonic neoplasms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Izumi; Kato, Jun; Tamai, Hideyuki; Iguchi, Mikitaka; Maekita, Takao; Yoshimura, Noriko; Ichinose, Masao

    2014-02-14

    To summarize the current views and insights on associations between Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori)-related chronic gastritis and colorectal neoplasm, we reviewed recent studies to clarify whether H. pylori infection/H. pylori-related chronic gastritis is associated with an elevated risk of colorectal neoplasm. Recent studies based on large databases with careful control for confounding variables have clearly demonstrated an increased risk of colorectal neoplasm associated with H. pylori infection. The correlation between H. pylori-related chronic atrophic gastritis (CAG) and colorectal neoplasm has only been examined in a limited number of studies. A recent large study using a national histopathological database, and our study based on the stage of H. pylori-related chronic gastritis as determined by serum levels of H. pylori antibody titer and pepsinogen, indicated that H. pylori-related CAG confers an increased risk of colorectal neoplasm, and more extensive atrophic gastritis will probably be associated with even higher risk of neoplasm. In addition, our study suggested that the activity of H. pylori-related chronic gastritis is correlated with colorectal neoplasm risk. H. pylori-related chronic gastritis could be involved in an increased risk of colorectal neoplasm that appears to be enhanced by the progression of gastric atrophy and the presence of active inflammation.

  6. Aerobic fitness related to cardiovascular risk factors in young children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Thorsson, Ola; Karlsson, Magnus K

    2012-01-01

    Low aerobic fitness (maximum oxygen uptake (VO(2PEAK))) is predictive for poor health in adults. In a cross-sectional study, we assessed if VO(2PEAK) is related to a composite risk factor score for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in 243 children (136 boys and 107 girls) aged 8 to 11 years. VO(2PEAK...

  7. HIV/AIDS Related Knowledge and Perceived Risk Associated with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Using data from the 2004 National Survey of Adolescents in Uganda, logistic regression models were fitted to examine the odds that HIV/AIDS related knowledge and perceived risk of HIV infection are associated with condom use among adolescents. After including demographic measures, findings indicated that correct ...

  8. Cancer-related fatigue--mechanisms, risk factors, and treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Julienne E

    2014-10-01

    Fatigue is one of the most common adverse effects of cancer that might persist for years after treatment completion in otherwise healthy survivors. Cancer-related fatigue causes disruption in all aspects of quality of life and might be a risk factor of reduced survival. The prevalence and course of fatigue in patients with cancer have been well characterized and there is growing understanding of the underlying biological mechanisms. Inflammation seems to have a key role in fatigue before, during, and after cancer-treatment. However, there is a considerable variability in the presentation of cancer-related fatigue, much of which is not explained by disease-related or treatment-related characteristics, suggesting that host factors might be important in the development and persistence of this symptom. Indeed, longitudinal studies have identified genetic, biological, psychosocial, and behavioural risk factors associated with cancer-related fatigue. Although no current gold-standard treatment for fatigue is available, a variety of intervention approaches have shown beneficial effects in randomized controlled trials, including physical activity, psychosocial, mind-body, and pharmacological treatments. This Review describes the mechanisms, risk factors, and possible interventions for cancer-related fatigue, focusing on recent longitudinal studies and randomized trials that have targeted fatigued patients.

  9. Area-based assessment of extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hei, Fangliang

    2012-05-01

    Underpinning the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is the assessment of extinction risk as determined by the size and degree of loss of populations. The IUCN system lists a species as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable if its population size declines 80%, 50%, or 30% within a given time frame. However, effective implementation of the system faces substantial challenges and uncertainty because geographic scale data on population size and long-term dynamics are scarce. I develop a model to quantify extinction risk using a measure based on a species' distribution, a much more readily obtained quantity. The model calculates the loss of the area of occupancy that is equivalent to the loss of a given proportion of a population. It is a very simple yet general model that has no free parameters and is independent of scale. The model predicted well the distributions of 302 tree species at a local scale and the distributions of 348 species of North American land birds. This area-based model provides a solution to the long-standing problem for IUCN assessments of lack of data on population sizes, and thus it will contribute to facilitating the quantification of extinction risk worldwide.

  10. [Risk factors related to surgical site infection in elective surgery].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeles-Garay, Ulises; Morales-Márquez, Lucy Isabel; Sandoval-Balanzarios, Miguel Antonio; Velázquez-García, José Arturo; Maldonado-Torres, Lulia; Méndez-Cano, Andrea Fernanda

    2014-01-01

    The risk factors for surgical site infections in surgery should be measured and monitored from admission to 30 days after the surgical procedure, because 30% of Surgical Site Infection is detected when the patient was discharged. Calculate the Relative Risk of associated factors to surgical site infections in adult with elective surgery. Patients were classified according to the surgery contamination degree; patient with surgery clean was defined as no exposed and patient with clean-contaminated or contaminated surgery was defined exposed. Risk factors for infection were classified as: inherent to the patient, pre-operative, intra-operative and post-operative. Statistical analysis; we realized Student t or Mann-Whitney U, chi square for Relative Risk (RR) and multivariate analysis by Cox proportional hazards. Were monitored up to 30 days after surgery 403 patients (59.8% women), 35 (8.7%) developed surgical site infections. The factors associated in multivariate analysis were: smoking, RR of 3.21, underweight 3.4 hand washing unsuitable techniques 4.61, transfusion during the procedure 3.22, contaminated surgery 60, and intensive care stay 8 to 14 days 11.64, permanence of 1 to 3 days 2.4 and use of catheter 1 to 3 days 2.27. To avoid all risk factors is almost impossible; therefore close monitoring of elective surgery patients can prevent infectious complications.

  11. Are all risks equal? Early experiences of poverty-related risk and children's functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Amanda L; Raver, C Cybele

    2014-06-01

    Using cumulative risk and latent class analysis (LCA) models, we examined how exposure to deep poverty (income-to-needs ratio risks (i.e., single-parent household, residential crowding, caregiver depression, and multiple life stressors) in preschool is related to children's future difficulty in school in a longitudinal sample of 602 Head Start-enrolled, low-income families. Results from the LCA revealed 4 risk profiles: low risk, deep poverty and single, single and stressed, and deep poverty and crowded household. Tests of measurement invariance across racial/ethnic groups established that, although patterns of risk are similar across groups (i.e., risks covary in the same way), the prevalence of risk profiles differs. African American families were overrepresented in the "deep poverty and single" profile while Latino and White families were overrepresented in the "deep poverty and crowded" profile. Finally, children's third grade functioning in 3 domains (i.e., academic performance, behavior problems, and self-regulatory skills) was predicted using a cumulative risk index and LCA-identified risk profiles. Both approaches demonstrated that children who experienced higher levels of risk in preschool had worse school performance than children with low levels of risk. However, LCA also revealed that children who experienced "single and stressed" family settings had more behavior problems than low-risk children while children who experienced "deep poverty and crowded" family settings had worse academic performance. The results indicate that all risks are not equal for children's development and highlight the utility of LCA for tailoring intervention efforts to best meet the needs of target populations. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved

  12. Food for thought - Communicating food-related risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sturloni Giancarlo

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last few years, a continuous series of food alerts have caught the attention of the media and the public in Europe. First, eggs and pork contaminated with dioxins; then, “mad cow” disease, while, all along in the background, a battle against genetically modified plants has been in progress. These food alerts have had complex repercussions on the perception of risks associated with food production. Experts have often been divided over these issues, and the uncertainty of scientific data has been indicated on more than one occasion as one of the factors that influence risk perception. However, the most important factor seems to be undoubtedly the way in which the risk has been communicated (or not communicated to the public. Therefore, risk communication analysis offers an excellent opportunity to understand the profound changes that are taking place in relations among the scientific community, mass media and other members of civil society now that they are fully aware that scientific and technological innovation, the real driving force of modern industrial society, is a source of development but also a source of risks which are not always acceptable. Within this different context, a debate open to all interested parties appears to have become a dire necessity for the “risk society”, especially as far as food is concerned because food has extremely important psychological, ethical and cultural values.

  13. Explanatory risk factors in the relations between schizotypy and indicators of suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahn, Danielle R; DeVylder, Jordan E; Hilimire, Matthew R

    2016-04-30

    Schizotypy has been linked to suicide risk, but it is not known whether established suicide-related risk factors mediate this relation. The aim of this study was to assess the mediating effects of depressive symptoms, social anxiety, self-esteem, and intimate disclosure in peer relationships in the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. This aim was tested in 590 young adults using a nonparametric bootstrapping procedure. After inclusion of the mediators, interpersonal schizotypy was no longer directly associated with either suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. Depression and self-esteem mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation. No variables mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and lifetime suicide attempts, and there were no significant direct relations when mediators were included. Schizotypy appears to be a distal risk factor for suicidal behavior; assessing depressive symptoms and self-esteem may provide more proximal information about suicide risk, and may be targets for mitigating suicide risk in individuals with schizotypy. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  14. Risk-based emergency decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koerte, Jens

    2003-01-01

    In the present paper we discuss how to assist critical decisions taken under complex, contingent circumstances, with a high degree of uncertainty and short time frames. In such sharp-end decision regimes, standard rule-based decision support systems do not capture the complexity of the situation. At the same time, traditional risk analysis is of little use due to variability in the specific circumstances. How then, can an organisation provide assistance to, e.g. pilots in dealing with such emergencies? A method called 'contingent risk and decision analysis' is presented, to provide decision support for decisions under variable circumstances and short available time scales. The method consists of nine steps of definition, modelling, analysis and criteria definition to be performed 'off-line' by analysts, and procedure generation to transform the analysis result into an operational decision aid. Examples of pilots' decisions in response to sudden vibration in offshore helicopter transport method are used to illustrate the approach

  15. Aerobic exercise reduces biomarkers related to cardiovascular risk among cleaners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korshøj, Mette; Ravn, Marie Højbjerg; Holtermann, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: Blue-collar workers have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Accordingly, elevated levels of biomarkers related to risk of cardiovascular disease, such as high-sensitive C-reactive protein, have been observed among blue-collar workers. The objective was to examine whether...... an aerobic exercise worksite intervention changes the level of inflammation biomarkers among cleaners. METHODS: The design was a cluster-randomized controlled trial with 4-month worksite intervention. Before the 116 cleaners aged 18-65 years were randomized, they signed an informed consent form...

  16. Relative Risk Appraisal, the September 11 Attacks, and Terrorism-Related Fears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Randall D.; Bryant, Richard A.; Amsel, Lawrence; Suh, Eun Jung; Cook, Joan M.; Neria, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    There are now replicated findings that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms related to the September 11, 2001, attacks occurred in large numbers of persons who did not fit the traditional definition of exposure to a traumatic event. These data are not explained by traditional epidemiologic “bull’s eye” disaster models, which assume the psychological effects are narrowly, geographically circumscribed, or by existing models of PTSD onset. In this article, the authors develop a researchable model to explain these and other terrorism-related phenomena by synthesizing research and concepts from the cognitive science, risk appraisal, traumatic stress, and anxiety disorders literatures. They propose the new term relative risk appraisal to capture the psychological function that is the missing link between the event and subjective response in these and other terrorism-related studies to date. Relative risk appraisal highlights the core notion from cognitive science that human perception is an active, multidimensional process, such that for unpredictable societal threats, proximity to the event is only one of several factors that influence behavioral responses. Addressing distortions in relative risk appraisal effectively could reduce individual and societal vulnerability to a wide range of adverse economic and ethnopolitical consequences to terrorist attacks. The authors present ways in which these concepts and related techniques can be helpful in treating persons with September 11– or terrorism-related distress or psychopathology. PMID:17516775

  17. MicroRNA Related Polymorphisms and Breast Cancer Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki

    2014-01-01

    Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer....... We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41......,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated...

  18. Risk Factors and Biomarkers of Age-Related Macular Degeneration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Nathan G.; Singh, Malkit K.; ElShelmani, Hanan; Mansergh, Fiona C.; Wride, Michael A.; Padilla, Maximilian; Keegan, David; Hogg, Ruth E.; Ambati, Balamurali K.

    2016-01-01

    A biomarker can be a substance or structure measured in body parts, fluids or products that can affect or predict disease incidence. As age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in the developed world, much research and effort has been invested in the identification of different biomarkers to predict disease incidence, identify at risk individuals, elucidate causative pathophysiological etiologies, guide screening, monitoring and treatment parameters, and predict disease outcomes. To date, a host of genetic, environmental, proteomic, and cellular targets have been identified as both risk factors and potential biomarkers for AMD. Despite this, their use has been confined to research settings and has not yet crossed into the clinical arena. A greater understanding of these factors and their use as potential biomarkers for AMD can guide future research and clinical practice. This article will discuss known risk factors and novel, potential biomarkers of AMD in addition to their application in both academic and clinical settings. PMID:27156982

  19. Building-related risk factors and work-related lower respiratory symptoms in 80 office buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendell, M.J.; Naco, G.M.; Wilcox, T.G.; Sieber, W.K.

    2002-01-01

    We assessed building-related risk factors for lower respiratory symptoms in office workers. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health in 1993 collected data during indoor environmental health investigations of workplaces. We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess relationships between lower respiratory symptoms in office workers and risk factors plausibly related to microbiologic contamination. Among 2,435 occupants in 80 office buildings, frequent, work-related multiple lower respiratory symptoms were strongly associated, in multivariate models, with two risk factors for microbiologic contamination: poor pan drainage under cooling coils and debris in outside air intake. Associations tended to be stronger among those with a history of physician-diagnosed asthma. These findings suggest that adverse lower respiratory health effects from indoor work environments, although unusual, may occur in relation to poorly designed or maintained ventilation systems, particularly among previously diagnosed asthmatics. These findings require confirmation in more representative buildings.

  20. Building-related risk factors and work-related lower respiratory symptoms in 80 office buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendell, M.J.; Naco, G.M.; Wilcox, T.G.; Sieber, W.K.

    2002-01-01

    We assessed building-related risk factors for lower respiratory symptoms in office workers. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health in 1993 collected data during indoor environmental health investigations of workplaces. We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess relationships between lower respiratory symptoms in office workers and risk factors plausibly related to microbiologic contamination. Among 2,435 occupants in 80 office buildings, frequent, work-related multiple lower respiratory symptoms were strongly associated, in multivariate models, with two risk factors for microbiologic contamination: poor pan drainage under cooling coils and debris in outside air intake. Associations tended to be stronger among those with a history of physician-diagnosed asthma. These findings suggest that adverse lower respiratory health effects from indoor work environments, although unusual, may occur in relation to poorly designed or maintained ventilation systems, particularly among previously diagnosed asthmatics. These findings require confirmation in more representative buildings

  1. [Identification of risk factors in relatives of type-2 diabetics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuevas-Alvarez, Norma Angélica; Vela-Otero, Yolanda; Carrada-Brav, Teodoro

    2006-01-01

    To identify risk factors and warning signs in a sample of first-degree relatives of type-2 diabetics at the Family Medicine Unit 2 of the General Hospital in Irapuato, Guanajuato, Mexico. In a non-probabilistic sample of 360 relatives, a 14-item questionnaire was applied to measure abdominal perimeter and body mass index (obesity and overweight), eating habits, addictions and sedentarism. The questionnaire was made by general consent of experts, by applying Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient. Specific rates of prevalence by sex and age groups were estimated. 233 (65%) relatives were females. As part of their family history background, arterial hypertension was recorded in 263 (73%) and acute myocardial infarction in 97 (27%). Among the dangerous food for health consumed by the relatives of diabetics are cola drinks in 94.7%, red meat in 83%, candies in 74.7% and chips in 65.8%; only half of them consumed fresh fruits and vegetables; a quarter of them ate prickly pears or whole wheat bread. There were 163 (45.3%) persons with high-risk abdominal perimeter, and sedentarism was present in 267 (74.2%). However, obesity was 3 times more frequent in females, but excessive drinking or smoking habits were 7 times more prevailing in males. A high-risk behavior was demonstrated among relativies of diabetic patients. Therefore, a public-health educational program is required to modify risky habits. A change towards prevention rather than cure is much needed in health staff.

  2. AIDS Risk Perception and its related factors in Women with High-Risk Behaviors in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahin Tafazoli

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background & aim: AIDS is one of the major public health challenges all over the world. Perceived risk is a significant predictor of high-risk behaviors related to AIDS. Women constitute more than half of the HIV patients, and the rate of female sex workers with AIDS is more than the rest of female population. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate AIDS risk perception and its related factors in females with high-risk behaviors in Mashhad, Iran. Methods:This descriptive study was performed on 58 women who were arrested on prostitution charges and imprisoned in Mashhad Vakil Abad Prison in 2013. The data were collected using self-designed questionnaires assessing knowledge regarding AIDS as well as sexual activities and also perceived risk of HIV questionnaire. One-way ANOVA, independent samples t-test, linear regression, and Chi-square tests were run, using SPSS version 16. Results: The mean score of HIV risk perception was 18.43±5.92, which was average. There was a significant relationship between the mean score of perceived risk of HIV and knowledge regarding AIDS (P=0.005, alcohol consumption (P=0.04, history of addiction (P=0.008, using contraceptive methods (P=0.01, condom use during intercourse (P=0.02, voluntary HIV testing (P=0.001, and follow-up of HIV test (P=0.009. Conclusion:The findings of the present study revealed that knowledge, alcohol consumption, history of addiction, contraceptive methods, the rate of condom use during intercourse, as well as voluntary HIV testing and follow-up were associated with perceived risk of HIV infection. Therefore, taking the necessary steps towards health promotion through appropriate training and interventional approaches seems to be mandatory for reducing high-risk behaviors in populations with low risk perception.

  3. System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

    2013-01-01

    During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

  4. Review of clinical practice guidelines for the management of LDL-related risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Pamela B; Ballantyne, Christie M; Birtcher, Kim K; Dunn, Steven P; Urbina, Elaine M

    2014-07-15

    Managing risk related to low-density lipoprotein (LDL) is vital in therapy for patients at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events given its important etiologic role in atherogenesis. Despite decades of research showing reduction of ASCVD risk with multiple approaches to lowering of LDL cholesterol, there continue to be significant gaps in care with inadequate numbers of patients receiving standard of care lipid-lowering therapy. Confusion regarding implementation of the multiple published clinical practice guidelines has been identified as one contributor to suboptimal management of LDL-related risk. This review summarizes the current guidelines for reduction of LDL-related cardiovascular risk provided by a number of major professional societies, which have broad applicability to diverse populations worldwide. Statements have varied in the process and methodology of development of recommendations, the grading system for level and strength of evidence, the inclusion or exclusion of expert opinion, the suggested ASCVD risk assessment tool, the lipoproteins recommended for risk assessment, and the lipoprotein targets of therapy. The similarities and differences among important guidelines in the United States and internationally are discussed, with recommendations for future strategies to improve consistency in approaches to LDL-related ASCVD risk and to reduce gaps in implementation of evidence-based therapies. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk factors of age-related macular degeneration in Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Eugenia Nano

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSES: To assess the risk factors of age-related macular degeneration in Argentina using a case-control study. METHODS: Surveys were used for subjects' antioxidant intake, age/gender, race, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes (and type of treatment, smoking, sunlight exposure, red meat consumption, fish consumption, presence of age-related macular degeneration and family history of age-related macular degeneration. Main effects models for logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression were used to analyze the results. RESULTS: There were 175 cases and 175 controls with a mean age of 75.4 years and 75.5 years, respectively, of whom 236 (67.4% were female. Of the cases with age-related macular degeneration, 159 (45.4% had age-related macular degeneration in their left eyes, 154 (44.0% in their right eyes, and 138 (39.4% in both eyes. Of the cases with age-related macular degeneration in their left eyes, 47.8% had the dry type, 40.3% had the wet type, and the type was unknown for 11.9%. The comparable figures for right eyes were: 51.9%, 34.4%, and 13.7%, respectively. The main effects model was dominated by higher sunlight exposure (OR [odds ratio]: 3.3 and a family history of age-related macular degeneration (OR: 4.3. Other factors included hypertension (OR: 2.1, smoking (OR: 2.2, and being of the Mestizo race, which lowered the risk of age-related macular degeneration (OR: 0.40. Red meat/fish consumption, body mass index, and iris color did not have an effect. Higher age was associated with progression to more severe age-related macular degeneration. CONCLUSION: Sunlight exposure, family history of age-related macular degeneration, and an older age were the significant risk factors. There may be other variables, as the risk was not explained very well by the existing factors. A larger sample may produce different and better results.

  6. Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asseldonk, M A P M; Velthuis, A G J

    2014-02-01

    Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process standards. To select farms for an audit that present higher risks, a statistical analysis was conducted to test the relationship between the outcome of farm audits and bulk milk laboratory results before the audit. The analysis comprised 28,358 farm audits and all conducted laboratory tests of bulk milk samples 12 mo before the audit. The overall outcome of each farm audit was classified as approved or rejected. Laboratory results included somatic cell count (SCC), total bacterial count (TBC), antimicrobial drug residues (ADR), level of butyric acid spores (BAB), freezing point depression (FPD), level of free fatty acids (FFA), and cleanliness of the milk (CLN). The bulk milk laboratory results were significantly related to audit outcomes. Rejected audits are likely to occur on dairy farms with higher mean levels of SCC, TBC, ADR, and BAB. Moreover, in a multivariable model, maxima for TBC, SCC, and FPD as well as standard deviations for TBC and FPD are risk factors for negative audit outcomes. The efficiency curve of a risk-based selection approach, on the basis of the derived regression results, dominated the current random selection approach. To capture 25, 50, or 75% of the population with poor process standards (i.e., audit outcome of rejected), respectively, only 8, 20, or 47% of the population had to be sampled based on a risk-based selection approach. Milk quality information can thus be used to preselect high-risk farms to be audited more frequently. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Questionnaire-based risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakajo, Satoko; Ohi, Tadashi

    2004-01-01

    In order to reduce human errors efficiently, it is important to evaluate error-likely tasks and improve them. There are a lot of evaluation methods, for example, experimental evaluation methods, investigations by the expert of human factors, checking guidelines, estimating human error probabilities, and so on. There are roughly two problems in those methods. (1) Qualitative evaluation methods do not evaluate how likely human errors will occur and do not estimate how effective the countermeasure is in reducing human error. (2) Most of the quantitative evaluation methods and detailed analysis methods require expert's judgment. We developed a questionnaire-based risk assessment method and its system. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the method, realization, and applications to a maintenance procedure of a nuclear power plant and an elevator. The feature of the method is that it is so simple and the inexpert can easily evaluate the risk of human error. Furthermore, because it is provided as an application service provider system, a lot of evaluators can use it simultaneously through internet and it is easy to collect and sum up the responses. We confirmed that it is useful to evaluate the risk of human error, analyze the problem, and estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures in advance through the applications. (author)

  8. Five-Year Effectiveness of the Multidisciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Programme-Diabetes Mellitus (RAMP-DM) on Diabetes-Related Complications and Health Service Uses-A Population-Based and Propensity-Matched Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Eric Yuk Fai; Fung, Colman Siu Cheung; Jiao, Fang Fang; Yu, Esther Yee Tak; Chin, Weng Yee; Fong, Daniel Yee Tak; Wong, Carlos King Ho; Chan, Anca Ka Chun; Chan, Karina Hiu Yen; Kwok, Ruby Lai Ping; Lam, Cindy Lo Kuen

    2018-01-01

    To evaluate the 5-year effectiveness of a multidisciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Programme-Diabetes Mellitus (RAMP-DM) in primary care patients with type 2 diabetes. A 5-year prospective cohort study was conducted with 121,584 Chinese primary care patients with type 2 DM who were recruited between August 2009 and June 2011. Missing data were dealt with multiple imputations. After excluding patients with prior diabetes mellitus (DM)-related complications and one-to-one propensity score matching on all patient characteristics, 26,718 RAMP-DM participants and 26,718 matched usual care patients were followed up for a median time of 4.5 years. The effect of RAMP-DM on nine DM-related complications and all-cause mortality were evaluated using Cox regressions. The first incidence for each event was used for all models. Health service use was analyzed using negative binomial regressions. Subgroup analyses on different patient characteristics were performed. The cumulative incidence of all events (DM-related complications and all-cause mortality) was 23.2% in the RAMP-DM group and 43.6% in the usual care group. RAMP-DM led to significantly greater reductions in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk by 56.6% (95% CI 54.5, 58.6), microvascular complications by 11.9% (95% CI 7.0, 16.6), mortality by 66.1% (95% CI 64.3, 67.9), specialist attendance by 35.0% (95% CI 33.6, 36.4), emergency attendance by 41.2% (95% CI 39.8, 42.5), and hospitalizations by 58.5% (95% CI 57.2, 59.7). Patients with low baseline CVD risks benefitted the most from RAMP-DM, which decreased CVD and mortality risk by 60.4% (95% CI 51.8, 67.5) and 83.6% (95% CI 79.3, 87.0), respectively. This naturalistic study highlighted the importance of early optimal DM control and risk factor management by risk stratification and multidisciplinary, protocol-driven, chronic disease model care to delay disease progression and prevent complications. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

  9. Analysis of related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-Song Yu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To explore the related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy to provide a theoretical evidence for effectively preventing the occurrence of pancreatic fistula. Methods: A total of 100 patients who were admitted in our hospital from January, 2012 to January, 2015 and had performed pancreaticoduodenectomy were included in the study. The related risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula were collected for single factor and Logistic multi-factor analysis. Results: Among the included patients, 16 had pancreatic fistula, and the total occurrence rate was 16% (16/100. The single-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, preoperative bilirubin, pancreatic texture, pancreatic duct diameter, intraoperative amount of bleeding, postoperative hemoglobin, and application of somatostatin after operation were the risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (P<0.05. The multi-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin were the dependent risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (OR=4.162, 6.104, 5.613, 4.034, P<0.05. Conclusions: The occurrence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy is closely associated with the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin; therefore, effective measures should be taken to reduce the occurrence of pancreatic fistula according to the patients’ own conditions.

  10. Young people's perspectives on health-related risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace Elisabeth Spencer

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Drawing upon current socio-cultural understandings of risk, this study highlights the disjunction between the expert risk discourses that permeate official public health policy and practice, and young people’s own perspectives on health and risk. Data were collected from young people aged 14-16 years through the use of group and individual interviews in a school and community youth centre setting. Findings from this study question the saliency of expert-defined health-related risks to young people’s everyday lives. Young people in this study saw health as closely linked to ‘being happy’. Friendships and a sense of personal achievement were particularly important to participants’ health and well-being. When accounting for their participation in health-related practices identified as ‘risky’ in government policy – such as smoking, alcohol and substance use – young people emphasised the levels of pressure they experienced. Sources of pressure included arguments and bullying, school work, and negative stereotypes of young people in general. These areas indicated young people’s concerns that reach beyond the official prescriptions permeating current health policy.

  11. Socio-economic, Knowledge Attitude Practices (KAP), household related and demographic based appearance of non-dengue infected individuals in high dengue risk areas of Kandy District, Sri Lanka.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udayanga, Lahiru; Gunathilaka, Nayana; Iqbal, M C M; Pahalagedara, Kusumawathie; Amarasinghe, Upali S; Abeyewickreme, Wimaladharma

    2018-02-21

    Socio-economic, demographic factors and Knowledge Attitude Practices (KAPs) have been recognized as critical factors that influence the incidence and transmission of dengue epidemics. However, studies that characterize above features of a risk free or low risk population are rare. Therefore, the present study was conducted to characterize the household related, demographic, socio-economic factors and KAPs status of five selected dengue free communities. An analytical cross-sectional survey was conducted on selected demographic, socio-economic, household related and KAPs in five selected dengue free communities living in dengue risk areas within Kandy District, Central Province, Sri Lanka. Household heads of 1000 randomly selected houses were interviewed in this study. Chi-square test for independence, cluster analysis and Principal Coordinates (PCO) analysis were used for data analysis. Knowledge and awareness regarding dengue, (prevention of the vector breeding, bites of mosquitoes, disease symptoms and waste management) and attitudes of the community (towards home gardening, composting, waste management and maintenance of a clean and dengue free environment) are associated with the dengue free status of the study populations. The vector controlling authorities should focus on socio-economic, demographic and KAPs in stimulating the community to cooperate in the integrated vector management strategies to improve vector control and reduce transmission of dengue within Kandy District.

  12. 12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... credit risk capital requirement, its market risk capital requirement, and its operations risk capital... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND...

  13. Increased relative risk of myelodysplastic syndrome in atomic bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oda, Kenji; Kimura, Akiro; Matsuo, Tatsuki; Tomonaga, Masao; Kodama, Kazunori; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

    1998-01-01

    It was investigated what blood disorders except leukemia increased the relative risk with dose dependency in atomic bomb survivors. Subjects were 217 patients of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, who had blood disorders except leukemia and died between 1950 and 1990. Their medical records were analyzed and their diagnoses were reevaluated. Sixteen cases were diagnosed as the aplastic anemia and 12 as the myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). In the aplastic anemia, there was no correlation between the exposure dose and the mortality. In MDS, the excess relative risk (ERR)/bone marrow exposure dose of 1 Sv was very high (13.0). These results supports the hypothesis that MDS would be broken out by the clonal abnormality of the hematopoietic stem cell and radiation exposure could cause the appearance of the abnormal stem cell clone. (K.H.)

  14. Increased relative risk of myelodysplastic syndrome in atomic bomb survivors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oda, Kenji [Hiroshima City Hospital (Japan); Kimura, Akiro; Matsuo, Tatsuki; Tomonaga, Masao; Kodama, Kazunori; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

    1998-12-01

    It was investigated what blood disorders except leukemia increased the relative risk with dose dependency in atomic bomb survivors. Subjects were 217 patients of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, who had blood disorders except leukemia and died between 1950 and 1990. Their medical records were analyzed and their diagnoses were reevaluated. Sixteen cases were diagnosed as the aplastic anemia and 12 as the myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). In the aplastic anemia, there was no correlation between the exposure dose and the mortality. In MDS, the excess relative risk (ERR)/bone marrow exposure dose of 1 Sv was very high (13.0). These results supports the hypothesis that MDS would be broken out by the clonal abnormality of the hematopoietic stem cell and radiation exposure could cause the appearance of the abnormal stem cell clone. (K.H.)

  15. Update on procedure-related risks for prenatal diagnosis techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tabor, Ann; Alfirevic, Zarko

    2010-01-01

    Introduction: As a consequence of the introduction of effective screening methods, the number of invasive prenatal diagnostic procedures is steadily declining. The aim of this review is to summarize the risks related to these procedures. Material and Methods: Review of the literature. Results: Data...... from randomised controlled trials as well as from systematic reviews and a large national registry study are consistent with a procedure-related miscarriage rate of 0.5-1.0% for amniocentesis as well as for chorionic villus sampling (CVS). In single-center studies performance may be remarkably good due...... not be performed before 15 + 0 weeks' gestation. CVS on the other hand should not be performed before 10 weeks' gestation due to a possible increase in risk of limb reduction defects. Discussion: Experienced operators have a higher success rate and a lower complication rate. The decreasing number of prenatal...

  16. Prospect relativity: how choice options influence decision under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Neil; Chater, Nick; Stott, Henry P; Reimers, Stian

    2003-03-01

    In many theories of decision under risk (e.g., expected utility theory, rank-dependent utility theory, and prospect theory), the utility of a prospect is independent of other options in the choice set. The experiments presented here show a large effect of the available options, suggesting instead that prospects are valued relative to one another. The judged certainty equivalent for a prospect is strongly influenced by the options available. Similarly, the selection of a preferred prospect is strongly influenced by the prospects available. Alternative theories of decision under risk (e.g., the stochastic difference model, multialternative decision field theory, and range frequency theory), where prospects are valued relative to one another, can provide an account of these context effects.

  17. An extended risk assessment approach for chemical plants applied to a study related to pipe ruptures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milazzo, Maria Francesca; Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessments and Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) in particular have been used in the chemical industry for many years to support decision-making on the choice of arrangements and measures associated with chemical processes, transportation and storage of dangerous substances. The assessments have been founded on a risk perspective seeing risk as a function of frequency of events (probability) and associated consequences. In this paper we point to the need for extending this approach to place a stronger emphasis on uncertainties. A recently developed risk framework designed to better reflect such uncertainties is presented and applied to a chemical plant and specifically the analysis of accidental events related to the rupture of pipes. Two different ways of implementing the framework are presented, one based on the introduction of probability models and one without. The differences between the standard approach and the extended approaches are discussed from a theoretical point of view as well as from a practical risk analyst perspective.

  18. Deployment-related risk factors of low back pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nissen, Lars Ravnborg; Marott, Jacob Louis; Gyntelberg, Finn

    2014-01-01

    Where much is known about the consequences of spinal and low back pain (LBP) during military deployments, there is lesser knowledge of risk factors for LBP among the deployed forces. The objective of this study was to identify deployment-related exposures associated with LBP. The study was a ques...... their subordinates and involve medical personnel, especially deployed physiotherapists, by giving advice to soldiers of different military occupational specialties on how to optimize ergonomics at work....

  19. Demonstration of risk-based approaches to nuclear plant regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahn, F.J.; Sursock, J.P.; Darling, S.S.; Oddo, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes generic technical support EPRI is providing to the nuclear power industry relative to its recent initiatives in the area of risk-based regulations (RBR). A risk-based regulatory approach uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), or similar techniques, to allocate safety resources commensurate with the risk posed by nuclear plant operations. This approach will reduce O ampersand M costs, and also improve nuclear plant safety. In order to enhance industry, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and public confidence in RBR, three things need to be shown: (1) manpower/resource savings are significant for both NRC and industry; (2) the process is doable in a reasonable amount of time; and (3) the process, if uniformly applied, results in demonstrably cheaper power and safer plants. In 1992, EPRI performed a qualitative study of the key RBR issues contributing to high O ampersand M costs. The results are given on Table 1. This study is being followed up by an in-depth quantitative cost/benefit study to focus technical work on producing guidelines/procedures for licensing submittals to NRC. The guidelines/procedures necessarily will be developed from successful demonstration projects such as the Fitzpatrick pilot plant study proposed by the New York Power Authority and other generic applications. This paper presents three examples: two motor operated valve projects performed by QUADREX Energy Services Corporation working with utilities in responding to NRC Generic Letter 89-10, and a third project working with Yankee Atomic Electric Company on service water systems at a plant in its service system. These demonstration projects aim to show the following: (1) the relative ease of putting together a technical case based on RBR concepts; (2) clarity in differentiating the various risk trade-offs, and in communicating overall reductions in risk with NRC; and (3) improved prioritization of NRC directives

  20. Changes of individual perception in psychosocial stressors related to German reunification in 1989/1990 and cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular diseases in a population-based study in East Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohley, Stefanie; Kluttig, Alexander; Werdan, Karl; Nuding, Sebastian; Greiser, Karin Halina; Kuss, Oliver; Markus, Marcello Ricardo Paulista; Schmidt, Carsten Oliver; Völzke, Henry; Krabbe, Christine; Haerting, Johannes

    2016-01-04

    Aim was to examine the relationship between individually perceived changes in psychosocial stressors associated with German reunification and cardiovascular effects. We hypothesised that higher levels of psychosocial stress related to German reunification were associated with an increase in cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Cross-sectional data from 2 cohort studies in East Germany were used: Cardiovascular Disease, Living and Ageing in Halle Study (CARLA), and Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP). 2 populations in East Germany. CARLA study: 1779 participants, aged 45-83 years at baseline (812 women), SHIP study: 4308 participants, aged 20-79 years at baseline (2193 women). Psychosocial stressors related to reunification were operationalised by the Reunification Stress Index (RSI; scale from 0 to 10). This index was composed of questions that were related to individually perceived changes in psychosocial stressors (occupational, financial and personal) after reunification. To examine the associations between the RSI and each stressor separately with cardiovascular risk factors and CVD, regression models were used. RSI was associated with CVD in women (RR=1.15, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.33). Cardiovascular risk factors were associated with RSI for both men and women, with strongest associations between RSI and diabetes in women (RR=1.10, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.20) and depressive disorders in men (RR=1.15, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.77). The change in occupational situation related to reunification was the major contributing psychosocial stressor. We observed a strong association with CVD in women who experienced occupational deterioration after reunification (RR=4.04, 95% CI 1.21 to 13.43). Individually perceived deterioration of psychosocial stressors (occupational, financial and personal) related to German reunification was associated with cardiovascular risk factors and CVD. The associations were stronger for women than for men. An explanation for these

  1. Some risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed El Hachemi Mazighi

    2004-01-01

    Traditionally guided by long-term contracts, the international natural gas trade is experiencing new methods of operating, based on the short term and more flexibility. Today, indeed, the existence of uncommitted quantities of natural gas, combined with gas price discrepancies among different regions of the world, gives room for the expansion of the spot-trading of gas. The main objective of this paper is to discuss three fundamental risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas: volume risk, price risk and infrastructure risk. The defenders Of globalisation argue that the transition from the long-term to the short-term trading of natural gas is mainly a question of access to gas reserves, decreasing costs of gas liquefaction, the building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fleets and regasification facilities and third-party access to the infrastructure. This process needs to be as short as possible, so that the risks related to the transition process will disappear rapidly. On the other hand, the detractors of globalisation put the emphasis on the complexity of the gas value chain and on the fact that eliminating long- term contracts increases the risks inherent to the international natural gas business. In this paper, we try to untangle and assess the risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas. Our main conclusions are: the short-term trading of gas is far from riskless; volume risk requires stock-building in both consuming and producing countries. (author)

  2. Risk Factors for Developing Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders during Dairy Farming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayed Mohammad Taghavi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Dairy farming work involves frequent use of poor postures. These postures may increase the risk of developing musculoskeletal disorders among dairy workers. Objective: To assess postural load during performance of various tasks related to dairy farming. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on a dairy farm in Iran. In order to assess postural load, tasks related to dairy farming were divided into 3 categories: feeding, milking, and manure disposal. Each task was then divided into its constituent work subdivisions (tasks. Finally, the working posture for each work subdivision was evaluated using Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA. Results: Based on the results from the REBA score, the poorest risk scores (risk level 4 were associated with the following tasks: (1 manure disposal, (2 filling feed bags, and (3 pouring milk into a bucket. Other tasks such as filling corn containers, pouring corn into the milling machine, preparing the feed, pouring food into mangers, attaching the milking machine, and pouring milk from a bucket into a tank imposed high risk (risk level 3. The risk for the tasks of washing and disinfecting the udders were assessed as medium risks. Conclusion: The risk levels associated with most of the tasks on the studied farm were unacceptably high. Therefore, it is essential to implement ergonomic interventions to reduce risk levels of the tasks.

  3. Risk Factors for Developing Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders during Dairy Farming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghavi, Sayed Mohammad; Mokarami, Hamidreza; Ahmadi, Omran; Stallones, Lorann; Abbaspour, Asghar; Marioryad, Hossein

    2017-01-01

    Dairy farming work involves frequent use of poor postures. These postures may increase the risk of developing musculoskeletal disorders among dairy workers. To assess postural load during performance of various tasks related to dairy farming. This cross-sectional study was conducted on a dairy farm in Iran. In order to assess postural load, tasks related to dairy farming were divided into 3 categories: feeding, milking, and manure disposal. Each task was then divided into its constituent work subdivisions (tasks). Finally, the working posture for each work subdivision was evaluated using Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). Based on the results from the REBA score, the poorest risk scores (risk level 4) were associated with the following tasks: (1) manure disposal, (2) filling feed bags, and (3) pouring milk into a bucket. Other tasks such as filling corn containers, pouring corn into the milling machine, preparing the feed, pouring food into mangers, attaching the milking machine, and pouring milk from a bucket into a tank imposed high risk (risk level 3). The risk for the tasks of washing and disinfecting the udders were assessed as medium risks. The risk levels associated with most of the tasks on the studied farm were unacceptably high. Therefore, it is essential to implement ergonomic interventions to reduce risk levels of the tasks.

  4. Modifying EPA radiation risk models based on BEIR VII

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pawel, D.; Puskin, J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper summarizes a 'draft White Paper' that provides details on proposed changes in EPA's methodology for estimating radiogenic cancer risks. Many of the changes are based on the contents of a recent National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report (BEIR VII), that addresses cancer and genetic risks from low doses of low-LET radiation. The draft White Paper was prepared for a meeting with the EPA's Science Advisory Board's Radiation Advisory Committee (RAC) in September for seeking advice on the application of BEIR VII and on issues relating to these modifications and expansions. After receiving the Advisory review, we plan to implement the changes by publishing the new methodology in an EPA report, which we expect to submit to the RAC for final review. The revised methodology could then be applied to update the cancer risk coefficients for over 800 radionuclides that are published in EPA's Federal Guidance Report 13. (author)

  5. Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres Valle, A.

    1996-01-01

    The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example

  6. Magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes in relation to seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, R.D.

    1989-01-01

    Estimating the frequencies of occurrence of earthquakes of different magnitudes on a regional basis is an important task in estimating seismic risk at a construction site. Analysis of global earthquake data provides an insight into the magnitudes frequency relationship in a statistical manner. It turns out that, whereas a linear relationship between the logarithm of earthquake occurrence rates and the corresponding earthquake magnitudes fits well in the magnitude range between 5 and 7, a second degree polynomial in M, the earthquake magnitude provides a better description of the frequencies of earthquakes in a much wider range of magnitudes. It may be possible to adopt magnitude frequency relation for regions, for which adequate earthquake data are not available, to carry out seismic risk calculations. (author). 32 refs., 8 tabs., 7 figs

  7. The Relative Risk of Divorce in Parents of Children With Developmental Disabilities: Impacts of Lifelong Parenting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Namkung, Eun Ha; Song, Jieun; Greenberg, Jan S; Mailick, Marsha R; Floyd, Frank J

    2015-11-01

    We prospectively examined the risk of divorce in 190 parents of children with developmental disabilities compared to 7,251 parents of children without disabilities based on a random sample drawn from the community and followed longitudinally for over 50 years. A significant interaction between the parental group status and number of children was found: In the comparison group, having a larger number of children was related to an increased risk of divorce, whereas the number of children did not increase divorce risk among parents of children with developmental disabilities.

  8. The Relative Risk of Divorce in Parents of Children with Developmental Disabilities: Impacts of Lifelong Parenting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Jieun; Greenberg, Jan S.; Mailick, Marsha R.; Floyd, Frank J.

    2015-01-01

    We examined prospectively the risk of divorce in 190 parents of children with developmental disabilities compared to 7,251 parents of children without disabilities based on a random sample drawn from the community and followed longitudinally for over 50 years. A significant interaction between the parental group status and number of children was found: In the comparison group, having a larger number of children was related to an increased risk of divorce, whereas the number of children did not increase divorce risk among parents of children with developmental disabilities. PMID:26505872

  9. Paediatric HUS Cases Related to the Consumption of Raw Milk Sold by Vending Machines in Italy: Quantitative Risk Assessment Based on Escherichia coli O157 Official Controls over 7 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giacometti, F; Bonilauri, P; Piva, S; Scavia, G; Amatiste, S; Bianchi, D M; Losio, M N; Bilei, S; Cascone, G; Comin, D; Daminelli, P; Decastelli, L; Merialdi, G; Mioni, R; Peli, A; Petruzzelli, A; Tonucci, F; Liuzzo, G; Serraino, A

    2017-11-01

    A quantitative risk assessment (RA) was developed to estimate haemolytic-uremic syndrome (HUS) cases in paediatric population associated with the consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Italy. The historical national evolution of raw milk consumption phenomenon since 2008, when consumer interest started to grow, and after 7 years of marketing adjustment, is outlined. Exposure assessment was based on the official Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 (STEC) microbiological records of raw milk samples from vending machines monitored by the regional Veterinary Authorities from 2008 to 2014, microbial growth during storage, consumption frequency of raw milk, serving size, consumption preference and age of consumers. The differential risk considered milk handled under regulation conditions (4°C throughout all phases) and the worst time-temperature field handling conditions detected. In case of boiling milk before consumption, we assumed that the risk of HUS is fixed at zero. The model estimates clearly show that the public health significance of HUS cases due to raw milk STEC contamination depends on the current variability surrounding the risk profile of the food and the consumer behaviour has more impact than milk storage scenario. The estimated HUS cases predicted by our model are roughly in line with the effective STEC O157-associated HUS cases notified in Italy only when the proportion of consumers not boiling milk before consumption is assumed to be 1%. Raw milk consumption remains a source of E. coli O157:H7 for humans, but its overall relevance is likely to have subsided and significant caution should be exerted for temporal, geographical and consumers behaviour analysis. Health education programmes and regulatory actions are required to educate people, primarily children, on other STEC sources. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  10. Alternative approaches to risk-based technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.; Liner, R.T.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1987-01-01

    Four alternative risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications are identified. These are: a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) oriented approach; a reliability goal-oriented approach; an approach based on configuration control; a data-oriented approach. Based on preliminary results, the PRA-oriented approach, which has been developed further than the other approaches, seems to offer a logical, quantitative basis for setting Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) and Surveillance Test Intervals (STIs) for some plant components and systems. The most attractive feature of this approach is that it directly links the AOTs and STIs with the risk associated with the operation of the plant. This would focus the plant operator's and the regulatory agency's attention on the most risk-significant components of the plant. A series of practical issues related to the level of detail and content of the plant PRAs, requirements for the review of these PRAs, and monitoring cf the plant's performance by the regulatory agency must be resolved before the approach could be implemented. Future efforts will examine the other three approaches and their practicality before firm conclusions are drawn regarding the viability of any of these approaches

  11. MicroRNA Related Polymorphisms and Breast Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Milne, Roger L.; Muranen, Taru A.; Heikkinen, Tuomas; Aaltonen, Kirsimari; Dennis, Joe; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Liu, Jianjun; Hall, Per; Irwanto, Astrid; Humphreys, Keith; Li, Jingmei; Czene, Kamila; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hein, Rebecca; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Johnson, Nichola; Gibson, Lorna; Aitken, Zoe; Hopper, John L.; Tsimiklis, Helen; Bui, Minh; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Southey, Melissa C.; Apicella, Carmel; Stone, Jennifer; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel A.; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Chanock, Stephen J.; Hunter, David J.; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S.; Reed, Malcolm W. R.; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Broeks, Annegien; Veer, Laura J. V. a. n't.; Hogervorst, Frans B.; Fasching, Peter A.; Schrauder, Michael G.; Ekici, Arif B.; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Bojesen, Stig E.; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Nielsen, Sune F.; Flyger, Henrik; Benitez, Javier; Zamora, Pilar M.; Perez, Jose I. A.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Henderson, Brian E.; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Dunning, Alison M.; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Couch, Fergus J.; Wang, Xianshu; Vachon, Celine; Olson, Janet E.; Lambrechts, Diether; Moisse, Matthieu; Paridaens, Robert; Christiaens, Marie-Rose; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Mulot, Claire; Marme, Frederick; Burwinkel, Barbara; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J.; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L.; Knight, Julia A.; Tchatchou, Sandrine; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Dörk, Thilo; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Antonenkova, Natalia N.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Figueroa, Jonine; Lissowska, Jolanta; Brinton, Louise; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A. E. M.; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J.; Kristensen, Vessela N.; Slager, Susan; Toland, Amanda E.; Ambrosone, Christine B.; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Barile, Monica; Mariani, Paolo; Hooning, Maartje J.; Martens, John W. M.; Collée, J. Margriet; Jager, Agnes; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Giles, Graham G.; McLean, Catriona; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Brenner, Hermann; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Jones, Michael; Simard, Jacques; Goldberg, Mark S.; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M.; Mannermaa, Arto; Hamann, Ute; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Blomqvist, Carl; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Easton, Douglas F.; Nevanlinna, Heli

    2014-01-01

    Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR) 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88–0.96), rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99), rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94–0.99), rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01–1.05) located in the 3′ UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects. PMID:25390939

  12. MicroRNA related polymorphisms and breast cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Milne, Roger L; Muranen, Taru A; Heikkinen, Tuomas; Aaltonen, Kirsimari; Dennis, Joe; Bolla, Manjeet K; Liu, Jianjun; Hall, Per; Irwanto, Astrid; Humphreys, Keith; Li, Jingmei; Czene, Kamila; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hein, Rebecca; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Johnson, Nichola; Gibson, Lorna; Aitken, Zoe; Hopper, John L; Tsimiklis, Helen; Bui, Minh; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F; Southey, Melissa C; Apicella, Carmel; Stone, Jennifer; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel A; van der Luijt, Rob B; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Chanock, Stephen J; Hunter, David J; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S; Reed, Malcolm W R; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Broeks, Annegien; Van't Veer, Laura J; Hogervorst, Frans B; Fasching, Peter A; Schrauder, Michael G; Ekici, Arif B; Beckmann, Matthias W; Bojesen, Stig E; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Nielsen, Sune F; Flyger, Henrik; Benitez, Javier; Zamora, Pilar M; Perez, Jose I A; Haiman, Christopher A; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Pharoah, Paul D P; Dunning, Alison M; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Couch, Fergus J; Wang, Xianshu; Vachon, Celine; Olson, Janet E; Lambrechts, Diether; Moisse, Matthieu; Paridaens, Robert; Christiaens, Marie-Rose; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Mulot, Claire; Marme, Frederick; Burwinkel, Barbara; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Sawyer, Elinor J; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L; Knight, Julia A; Tchatchou, Sandrine; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Dörk, Thilo; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Antonenkova, Natalia N; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Figueroa, Jonine; Lissowska, Jolanta; Brinton, Louise; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A E M; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J; Kristensen, Vessela N; Slager, Susan; Toland, Amanda E; Ambrosone, Christine B; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Barile, Monica; Mariani, Paolo; Hooning, Maartje J; Martens, John W M; Collée, J Margriet; Jager, Agnes; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Giles, Graham G; McLean, Catriona; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Brenner, Hermann; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Jones, Michael; Simard, Jacques; Goldberg, Mark S; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Mannermaa, Arto; Hamann, Ute; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Blomqvist, Carl; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Easton, Douglas F; Nevanlinna, Heli

    2014-01-01

    Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR) 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88-0.96), rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99), rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94-0.99), rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05) located in the 3' UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects.

  13. MicroRNA related polymorphisms and breast cancer risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia Khan

    Full Text Available Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in microRNAs (miRNA or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS. Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC. Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI: 0.88-0.96, rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94-0.99, rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05 located in the 3' UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects.

  14. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

    2006-12-01

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  15. Bone and fall-related fracture risks in women and men with a recent clinical fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Helden, Svenhjalmar; van Geel, Antonia C M; Geusens, Piet P; Kessels, Alfons; Nieuwenhuijzen Kruseman, Arie C; Brink, Peter R G

    2008-02-01

    Worldwide fracture rates are increasing as a result of the aging population, and prevention, both primary and secondary, is an important public health goal. Therefore, we systematically analyzed risk factors in subjects with a recent clinical fracture. All men and women over fifty years of age who had been treated in the emergency department of, or hospitalized at, our institution because of a recent fracture during a one-year period were offered the opportunity to undergo an evidence-based bone and fall-related risk-factor assessment and bone densitometry. The women included in this study were also compared with a group of postmenopausal women without a fracture history who had been included in another cohort study. Of the 940 consecutive patients, 797 (85%) were eligible for this study and 568 (60%) agreed to participate. The prevalence of fall-related risk factors (75% [95% confidence interval = 71% to 78%]; n = 425) and the prevalence of bone-related risk factors (53% [95% confidence interval = 49% to 57%]; n = 299) at the time of fracture were higher than the prevalence of osteoporosis (35% [95% confidence interval = 31% to 39%]; n = 201) as defined by a dual x-ray absorptiometry T score of fall and bone-related risk factors were present irrespective of the fracture location, patient age, or gender. An overlap between bone and fall-related risk factors was found in 50% of the patients. After adjusting for age, weight, and height, we found that women with a fracture more frequently had a diagnosis of osteoporosis (odds ratio = 2.9; 95% confidence interval = 2.0 to 4.1) and had a more extensive history of falls (odds ratio = 4.0; 95% confidence interval = 2.7 to 5.9) than did the postmenopausal women without a fracture history. Men and women over fifty years of age who had recently sustained a clinical fracture had, at the time of that fracture, bone and fall-related risk factors that were greater than the risk predicted by the presence of osteoporosis. Risk

  16. The Association between the Lipids Levels in Blood and Risk of Age-Related Macular Degeneration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yafeng Wang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Lipid metabolism may be involved in the pathogenic mechanism of age-related macular degeneration (AMD. However, conflicting results have been reported in the associations of AMD with blood lipids. We performed a meta-analysis including a total of 19 studies to evaluate associations between blood lipids and this disease. The result reported that the high level of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C obtained with an increment of 1 mmol/L could result in a significantly increase in the AMD risk of approximately 18% (relative risk (RR, 1.18; 95% confidence interval (CI, 1.01 to 1.35; I2 = 53.8%; p = 0.007. High levels of total cholesterol (TC, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C, and triglycerides (TG were significantly associated with a decreased risk of AMD (RRs ranging from 0.92 to 0.95; all p < 0.05. The stratified analysis based on AMD subtypes showed that these blood lipids were only significantly associated with the risk of early AMD (all p < 0.05. The association between the blood lipids and AMD risk did not differ substantially based on the other characteristics of the participants. A high HDL-C level was associated with an increased AMD risk, whereas participants with high TC, LDL-C, and TG concentrations may show a decreased risk for this disease. Further well-designed large studies are warranted to confirm the conclusions.

  17. HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dorosh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

  18. Medication-related risk factors associated with health-related quality of life among community-dwelling elderly in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Sha; Meng, Long; Qiu, Feng; Yang, Jia-Dan; Sun, Shusen

    2018-01-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that medication adherence has an impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). However, other medication-related factors that may influence HRQoL have not been extensively studied, especially factors based on the Medication-Risk Questionnaire (MRQ), and such studies are mostly done in Western countries. Our objective was to explore risk factors associated with HRQoL among community-dwelling elderly with chronic diseases in mainland China, especially the medication-related risk factors regarding MRQ. The study was conducted in a community health service center through surveys to eligible patients. The main outcomes of HRQoL were assessed by the EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) scale and EQ-visual analog scale (EQ-VAS). Medication-related risk factors according to MRQ associated with HRQoL were identified using a multiple linear regression. A total of 311 patients were analyzed, averaging 71.19±5.33 years, and 68.8% were female. The mean EQ-5D index was 0.72±0.09, and the mean EQ-VAS score was 71.37±11.97. The most prevalent problem was pain/discomfort, and 90.0% believed that they could take care of themselves without any problems. Sex, age, educational level, frailty, function status, and certain medication-related factors regarding MRQ were found to be significant factors impacting the HRQoL. A multivariate analysis showed that MRQ factors of polypharmacy, multimorbidity, feeling difficultly with taking medicines as prescribed, and taking medicines with narrow therapeutic index had negative impacts on the quality of life. Patient's internal characteristics and medication-related risk factors according to MRQ were associated with quality of life. The results of the MRQ is an indicator of quality of life that can identify patients who need interventions.

  19. Risk factors for age-related macular degeneration: Pooled findings from three continents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smith, W.; Assink, J.; Klein, R.; Mitchell, P.; Klaver, C. C.; Klein, B. E.; Hofman, A.; Jensen, S.; Wang, J. J.; de Jong, P. T.

    2001-01-01

    To assess the prevalence and potential risk factors for late age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in three racially similar populations from North America, Europe, and AUSTRALIA: Combined analysis of population-based eye disease prevalence data. There were 14,752 participants with gradable

  20. Risk factors for visually disabling age-related cataracts in Ibadan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: To assess the risk factors for visually disabling age related cataracts. Methods: A hospital based case-control study carried out at the university College Hospital Ibadan between May 1996 and March 1997. Three hundred and eighty three cases were matched for age and sex with five hundred and ninety nine ...

  1. Cardiovascular risk factors associated with age-related macular degeneration: the Tromso Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erke, M. G.; Bertelsen, G.; Peto, T.

    2014-01-01

    PurposeTo examine associations between cardiovascular risk factors and age-related macular degeneration (AMD). MethodsA population-based, cross-sectional study of Caucasians aged 65-87years was conducted in Norway in 2007/2008. Retinal photographs were graded for AMD. Multivariable logistic...

  2. Endogenous hormones, muscle strength, and risk of fall-related fractures in older women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sipilä, Sarianna; Heikkinen, Eino; Cheng, Sulin; Suominen, Harri; Saari, Päivi; Kovanen, Vuokko; Alén, Markku; Rantanen, Taina

    2006-01-01

    Among older people, fracture-causing fall often leads to health deterioration. The role of endogenous hormone status and muscle strength on fall-related fracture risk is unclear. This study investigates if, after adjustment for bone density, endogenous hormones and muscle strength would predict fall-related limb fracture incidence in older community-dwelling women followed-up over 10 years. As a part of a prospective population-based study, 187 75-year-old women were investigated. Serum estradiol, testosterone, sex hormone binding globulin, and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate concentrations were analyzed, and isometric muscle strength and bone mineral density were assessed. Fall-related limb fractures were gathered from patient records. Serum estradiol concentration was a significant predictor of fall-related limb fractures. Women with serum estradiol concentrations less than 0.022 nmol/L had a 3-fold risk (relative risk 3.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-7.36), and women with estradiol concentrations between 0.022 and 0.066 nmol/L doubled the risk (relative risk 2.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-5.19) of fall-related limb fracture compared to the women with estradiol concentrations ()above 0.066 nmol/L. Adjustment for muscle strength and bone mineral density did not materially change the risk estimates. High muscle strength was associated with a low incidence of fall-related limb fractures. This study showed that in 75-year-old women higher serum estradiol concentration and greater muscle strength were independently associated with a low incidence of fall-related limb fractures even after adjustment for bone density. Our results suggest that hormonal status and muscle strength have their own separate mechanisms protecting from fall-related fractures. This finding is of importance in developing preventive strategies, but calls for further study.

  3. Linear time relational prototype based learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gisbrecht, Andrej; Mokbel, Bassam; Schleif, Frank-Michael; Zhu, Xibin; Hammer, Barbara

    2012-10-01

    Prototype based learning offers an intuitive interface to inspect large quantities of electronic data in supervised or unsupervised settings. Recently, many techniques have been extended to data described by general dissimilarities rather than Euclidean vectors, so-called relational data settings. Unlike the Euclidean counterparts, the techniques have quadratic time complexity due to the underlying quadratic dissimilarity matrix. Thus, they are infeasible already for medium sized data sets. The contribution of this article is twofold: On the one hand we propose a novel supervised prototype based classification technique for dissimilarity data based on popular learning vector quantization (LVQ), on the other hand we transfer a linear time approximation technique, the Nyström approximation, to this algorithm and an unsupervised counterpart, the relational generative topographic mapping (GTM). This way, linear time and space methods result. We evaluate the techniques on three examples from the biomedical domain.

  4. Reducing exposure to trust-related risks to avoid self-blame.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Effron, Daniel A; Miller, Dale T

    2011-02-01

    Three studies demonstrated that anticipated self-blame elicits more conservative decisions about risks that require trust than about otherwise economically identical risks that do not. Participants were more reluctant to invest money in a company when it risked failure due to fraud versus low consumer demand (Study 1), and to risk points in an economic game when its outcome ostensibly depended on another participant versus chance (Studies 2 and 3). These effects were mediated by anticipated self-blame (Studies 1 and 2). Additionally, participants who actually experienced a loss felt more self-blame when the loss violated their trust and became even more conservative in subsequent risk decisions relative to participants whose loss did not violate their trust (Study 3). No support emerged for alternative explanations based on either the perceived probability of incurring a loss or an aversion to losses that profit others. The motivational power of trust violations is discussed.

  5. [Risk and protection factors related to the consumption of psychoactive substances in undergraduate nursing students].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Blanca Nivia; Plazas, Merideidy; Sanchez, Rafael; Ventura, Carla Aparecida Arena

    2011-06-01

    This study aims to identify the frequency of risk and protection factors related to drug consumption among undergraduate nursing students. It is a cross-sectional study in which authors applied the instrument Risk and Protection Factors for the Consumption of Psychoactive Substances, validated for use with undergraduate nursing students. Data were analyzed through STATA 10. Three hundred and ninety students participated in the study. The domain "prejudice and appraisal", "social permissiveness and access to psychoactive substances", "social skills and self-control" are risk factors for drugs use in 100% of participants. "Spirituality" and "satisfaction with interpersonal relations" were predominant protective domains. Based on data, authors can conclude that the students did not consider the risks in alcohol and tobacco consumption, as they think it is normal and socially acceptable.

  6. Extent of Cropland and Related Soil Erosion Risk in Rwanda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fidele Karamage

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Land conversion to cropland is one of the major causes of severe soil erosion in Africa. This study assesses the current cropland extent and the related soil erosion risk in Rwanda, a country that experienced the most rapid population growth and cropland expansion in Africa over the last decade. The land cover land use (LCLU map of Rwanda in 2015 was developed using Landsat-8 imagery. Based on the obtained LCLU map and the spatial datasets of precipitation, soil properties and elevation, the soil erosion rate of Rwanda was assessed at 30-m spatial resolution, using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE model. According to the results, the mean soil erosion rate was 250 t·ha−1·a−1 over the entire country, with a total soil loss rate of approximately 595 million tons per year. The mean soil erosion rate over cropland, which occupied 56% of the national land area, was estimated at 421 t·ha−1·a−1 and was responsible for about 95% of the national soil loss. About 24% of the croplands in Rwanda had a soil erosion rate larger than 300 t·ha−1·a−1, indicating their unsuitability for cultivation. With a mean soil erosion rate of 1642 t·ha−1·a−1, these unsuitable croplands were responsible for 90% of the national soil loss. Most of the unsuitable croplands are distributed in the Congo Nile Ridge, Volcanic Range mountain areas in the west and the Buberuka highlands in the north, regions characterized by steep slopes (>30% and strong rainfall. Soil conservation practices, such as the terracing cultivation method, are paramount to preserve the soil. According to our assessment, terracing alone could reduce the mean cropland soil erosion rate and the national soil loss by 79% and 75%, respectively. After terracing, only a small proportion of 7.6% of the current croplands would still be exposed to extreme soil erosion with a rate >300 t·ha−1·a−1. These irremediable cropland areas should be returned to mountain forest to

  7. Simulating the market coefficient of relative risk aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samih Antoine Azar

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, expected utility, defined by a Taylor series expansion around expected wealth, is maximized. The coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA that is commensurate with a 100% investment in the risky asset is simulated. The following parameters are varied: the riskless return, the market standard deviation, the market stock premium, and the skewness and the kurtosis of the risky return. Both the high extremes and the low extremes are considered. With these figures, the upper bound of the market CRRA is 3.021 and the lower bound is 0.466. Log utility, which corresponds to a CRRA of 1, is not excluded.

  8. Project transition to risk based corrective action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Judge, J.M.; Cormier, S.L.

    1996-01-01

    Many states have adopted or are considering the adoption of the America Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Standard E 1739, Standard for Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) Applied to Petroleum Release Sites. This standard is being adopted to regulate leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites. The case studies of two LUST sites in Michigan will be presented to demonstrate the decision making process and limiting factors involved in transitioning sites to the RBCA program. Both of these case studies had been previously investigated and one was actively remediated. The first case study involves a private petroleum facility where soil and ground water have been impacted. Remediation involved a ground water pump and treat system. Subsequent monitoring during system operation indicated that analytical data were still above the Tier 1 RBSLs but below the Tier 2 SSTLs. The closure strategy that was developed was based on the compounds of concern that were below the SSTLs. A deed restriction was also developed for the site as an institutional control. The second LUST site exhibited BTEX concentrations in soil and ground water above the Tier 1 RBSLs. Due to the exceedence of the Tier 1 RBSLs, the second site required a Tier 2 assessment to develop SSTLs as remedial objectives and remove hot spots in the soil and treat the ground water to achieve closure. Again, a deed restriction was instituted along with a performance monitoring plan

  9. Energy use and related risk management problems in CEE countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ney, R.; Michna, J.; Ekmanis, J.; Zeltins, N.; Zebergs, V.

    2008-01-01

    Nowadays, the efficiency of energy use in the Central and East-European (CEE) countries is insufficient, being much lower than in the 'Old Europe'. The problem becomes increasingly pressing due to non-stop increasing prices of energy carriers (especially of crude oil). The authors trace the development of research activities in this sphere, classifying the revealed changes in parameters of energy consumption processes in particular time intervals into deterministic, probabilistic, and fuzzy. The paper presents a thorough analysis of decision-making in the energy management at its different levels normative, strategic, and operative. Particular attention is given to the management under uncertainty conditions - i.e. to the risk management. The most wanted research directions in this area proposed by the energy and environment policy (EEP) Center specially created for CEE countries concern management under risk connected with innovations, international activities, loss of reputation, etc.. The authors consider in detail the risk management with insufficient knowledge (non-knowledge) and under chaos. Much consideration is given to the scenario management and the game theory principles as related to the sphere of energy use. (Authors)

  10. Substance-related traffic-risk behaviors among college students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arria, Amelia M.; Caldeira, Kimberly M.; Vincent, Kathryn B.; Garnier-Dykstra, Laura M.; O’Grady, Kevin E.

    2011-01-01

    Aims Drunk driving is a major public health concern, but drugged driving has received little attention. This study examines drugged driving and riding with a drugged driver in a college student sample, in terms of prevalence, age-related trends, race/sex differences, overlap with drunk driving, and risk for alcohol and marijuana dependence. Methods Students (N=1194) ages 19 to 22 were interviewed annually for three years about past-year frequency of drugged driving, riding with a drugged/drunk driver, drunk driving, access to a car, and alcohol/drug dependence. Annual follow-up rates were excellent (88% to 91%). Repeated measures analyses were conducted using generalized estimating equations (GEE). Results One in six (17%wt) 19-year-olds with access to a car drove drugged in the past year; prevalence remained stable through age 22. Drugged driving was more prevalent among males (pdrunk (ranges between 47% and 60%). Both drugged and drunk driving were independently associated with increased risk for alcohol dependence, holding constant age, sex, and race. Drunk driving did not add to the risk for marijuana dependence in the context of drugged driving. Conclusions The prevalence of drugged driving is similar to drunk driving among college students. Both are strongly associated with underlying alcohol and drug dependence. Prevention and treatment implications are discussed. PMID:21601379

  11. A partner-related risk behavior index to identify people at elevated risk for sexually transmitted infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosby, Richard; Shrier, Lydia A

    2013-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop and test a sexual-partner-related risk behavior index to identify high-risk individuals most likely to have a sexually transmitted infection (STI). Patients from five STI and adolescent medical clinics in three US cities were recruited (N = 928; M age = 29.2 years). Data were collected using audio-computer-assisted self-interviewing. Of seven sexual-partner-related variables, those that were significantly associated with the outcomes were combined into a partner-related risk behavior index. The dependent variables were laboratory-confirmed infection with Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and/or Trichomonas vaginalis. Nearly one-fifth of the sample (169/928; 18.4%) tested positive for an STI. Three of the seven items were significantly associated with having one or more STIs: sex with a newly released prisoner, sex with a person known or suspected of having an STI, and sexual concurrency. In combined form, this three-item index was significantly associated with STI prevalence (p one or more of three STIs. This index could be used to prioritize and guide intensified clinic-based counseling for high-risk patients of STI and other clinics.

  12. Cost effectiveness of risk-based closures at UST sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scruton, K.M.; Baker, J.N.

    1995-01-01

    Risk-based closures have been achieved at Underground Storage Tank (UST) sites throughout the country for a major transportation company. The risk-based closures were cost-effective because a streamlined risk-based approach was used instead of the generic baseline risk assessment approach. USEPA has recently provided guidance encouraging the use of risk-based methodology for achieving closure at UST sites. The risk-based approach used in achieving the site closures involved an identification of potential human and ecological receptors and exposure pathways, and a comparison of maximum onsite chemical concentrations to applicable or relevant and appropriate requirements (ARARs). The ARARs used in the evaluation included Federal and/or State Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) for groundwater and risk-based screening levels for soils. If the maximum concentrations were above the screening levels, a baseline risk assessment was recommended. In several instances, however, the risk-based approach resulted in a regulatory agency acceptance of a ''no further action'' alternative at UST sites which did not pose a significant threat to human health and the environment. The cost of the streamlined risk-based approach is approximately $3,500, while a baseline risk assessment for the same UST site could cost up to $10,000 or more. The use of the streamlined risk-based approach has proven to be successful for achieving a ''no further action'' outcome for the client at a reasonable cost

  13. Global Risks as Factors that Affect the Current system of international Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina A. Zaitseva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of the globalization of risks is examined in this article. Based on the World Economic Forum (WEF report on global risks 2015-2017, the impact of global risks on the social and economic development of countries is examined. Economic, social, environmental, geopolitical, technological risks are analyzed in a coordinated fashion. The article notes that the main risks are in the field of environment and ecology. Anthropogenic pressure amplification, scientific and technological advance have an influence on the natural environment. The risks of infrastructure and environmental damage in danger zone are increased because of the growth of the frequency of extreme weather events. The measures for the protection of the environment are examined. The unilateral approach to solving international issues, instead of the collective efforts of the international community; the deployment of weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical, biological and technologies for the production of radioactive materials; escalation of economic and resource nationalization (the desire of States to expropriate or restrict the export of important for the world economy of resources, etc. promote the increasing geopolitical risks.Economic risks include the risk in terms of their likelihood their impact on the macroeconomic, as from the financial systems and infrastructure to price volatility and regulatory issues. Social risks are the risks relating to instability of population dynamics, social crises and human survival.Technological risks include such problems as software defects, failure of important information systems, upon which today industrial production is depended, the services and communications sector; the escalation of large-scale cyber-attacks; theft of electronic information and the illegal usage of personal data. The trends that can intensify the global risks or to change the correlation between them are analyzed in this article.

  14. Model based climate information on drought risk in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmanti, S.; Syroka, J.; Jones, C.; Carfagna, F.; Dell'Aquila, A.; Hoefsloot, P.; Kaffaf, S.; Nikulin, G.

    2012-04-01

    The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has embarked upon the endeavor of creating a sustainable Africa-wide natural disaster risk management system. A fundamental building block of this initiative is the setup of a drought impact modeling platform called Africa Risk-View that aims to quantify and monitor weather-related food security risk in Africa. The modeling approach is based the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), as the fundamental indicator of the performances of agriculture and uses historical records of food assistance operation to project future potential needs for livelihood protection. By using climate change scenarios as an input to Africa Risk-View it is possible, in principles, to evaluate the future impact of climate variability on critical issues such as food security and the overall performance of the envisaged risk management system. A necessary preliminary step to this challenging task is the exploration of the sources of uncertainties affecting the assessment based on modeled climate change scenarios. For this purpose, a limited set of climate models have been selected in order verify the relevance of using climate model output data with Africa Risk-View and to explore a minimal range of possible sources of uncertainty. This first evaluation exercise started before the setup of the CORDEX framework and has relied on model output available at the time. In particular only one regional downscaling was available for the entire African continent from the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis shows that current coarse resolution global climate models can not directly feed into the Africa RiskView risk-analysis tool. However, regional downscaling may help correcting the inherent biases observed in the datasets. Further analysis is performed by using the first data available under the CORDEX framework. In particular, we consider a set of simulation driven with boundary conditions from the reanalysis ERA-Interim to evaluate the skill drought

  15. Risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Michael L; Francis, Peter J; Ferris, Frederick L; Hamon, Sara C; Clemons, Traci E

    2011-12-01

    To design a risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) incorporating phenotypic, demographic, environmental, and genetic risk factors. We evaluated longitudinal data from 2846 participants in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. At baseline, these individuals had all levels of AMD, ranging from none to unilateral advanced AMD (neovascular or geographic atrophy). Follow-up averaged 9.3 years. We performed a Cox proportional hazards analysis with demographic, environmental, phenotypic, and genetic covariates and constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. Performance of the model was evaluated using the C statistic and the Brier score and externally validated in participants in the Complications of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Prevention Trial. The final model included the following independent variables: age, smoking history, family history of AMD (first-degree member), phenotype based on a modified Age-Related Eye Disease Study simple scale score, and genetic variants CFH Y402H and ARMS2 A69S. The model did well on performance measures, with very good discrimination (C statistic = 0.872) and excellent calibration and overall performance (Brier score at 5 years = 0.08). Successful external validation was performed, and a risk assessment tool was designed for use with or without the genetic component. We constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. The model performed well on measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance and was successfully externally validated. This risk assessment tool is available for online use.

  16. Characterizing users of new psychoactive substances using psychometric scales for risk-related behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vreeker, Annabel; van der Burg, Babette G; van Laar, Margriet; Brunt, Tibor M

    2017-07-01

    Studies investigating risk-related behavior in relation to new psychoactive substance (NPS) use are sparse. The current study investigated characteristics of NPS users by comparing risk-related behavior of NPS users to that of illicit drugs (ID) users and licit substances users and non-users (NLC) users. In this cross-sectional study we included 528 individuals across an age range of 18-72years. Using a web-based questionnaire we collected self-report data on substance use, sensation seeking, impulsivity, peer substance use and risk perception of substance use. NPS and ID users had a higher level of sensation seeking compared to NLC users (NPS users: pusers: pusers (pusers (p=0.16), had increased levels of impulsivity compared to NLC users. NPS users had significantly higher scores for sensation seeking (F 1,423 =51.52, pusers. Additionally, NPS users had significantly more peers who use substances compared to ID and NLC users. Also, NPS and ID users had lower risk perception for most substances than NLC users. NPS users had lower risk perception for most substances than ID users. The findings highlight that NPS users show substantial more risk-related behavior than both ID and NLC users. Therefore, NPS users might be considered as a distinctive group of substance users that need another approach in terms of prevention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Enhancing the effectiveness of IST through risk-based techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Floyd, S.D.

    1996-12-01

    Current IST requirements were developed mainly through deterministic-based methods. While this approach has resulted in an adequate level of safety and reliability for pumps and valves, insights from probabilistic safety assessments suggest a better safety focus can be achieved at lower costs. That is, some high safety impact pumps and valves are currently not tested under the IST program and should be added, while low safety impact valves could be tested at significantly greater intervals than allowed by the current IST program. The nuclear utility industry, through the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), has developed a draft guideline for applying risk-based techniques to focus testing on those pumps and valves with a high safety impact while reducing test frequencies on low safety impact pumps and valves. The guideline is being validated through an industry pilot application program that is being reviewed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NEI and the ASME maintain a dialogue on the two groups` activities related to risk-based IST. The presenter will provide an overview of the NEI guideline, discuss the methodological approach for applying risk-based technology to IST and provide the status of the industry pilot plant effort.

  18. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Safe, S.H. [Texas A& M Univ., Houston, TX (United States); Randerath, K.; Randerath, E. [College Station and Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX (United States)

    1994-12-31

    To compare the standard chemical-based risk assessment with in vitro genotoxicity assays, two complex environmental mixtures from a wood preserving site were analyzed in the Salmonella/microsome and E. coli prophage induction assays. Using GC/MS, sample 003 was found to contain relatively low levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PNAs) and elevated levels of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), while sample 005 had higher levels of PNAs and relatively low levels of PCDDs. The complex mixtures were sequentially extracted with methylene chloride and methanol for analysis in Salmonella, or extracted with 1:1 hexane: acetone mixture for analysis in the prophage induction assay. At a dose of 1.0 mg/plate in Salmonella strain TA98 with metabolic activation, the methanol extract of sample 003 induced 197 net revertants, while sample 005 induced 436 net revertants. In the prophage induction assay, with activation, the hexane:acetone extract of sample 003 induced a fold increase that was slightly lower than that observed with sample 005. The estimated incremental carcinogenic risk for dermal adsorption and ingestion was 1.5E-3 for sample 003, while for sample 005 the estimated risk was 1.5E-2. Thus, the sample which induced the maximum response in both bioassays also had the highest estimated cancer risk. However, the frequency of PNA-DNA adducts in both skin and liver tissues was appreciably higher with sample 005 than with sample 003.

  19. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 3 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...) The bank must have a risk control unit that reports directly to senior management and is independent... management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank's internal model must use risk.... Section 4. Internal Models (a) General. For risk-based capital purposes, a bank subject to this appendix...

  20. Energy drinks and alcohol-related risk among young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caviness, Celeste M; Anderson, Bradley J; Stein, Michael D

    2017-01-01

    Energy drink consumption, with or without concurrent alcohol use, is common among young adults. This study sought to clarify risk for negative alcohol outcomes related to the timing of energy drink use. The authors interviewed a community sample of 481 young adults, aged 18-25, who drank alcohol in the last month. Past-30-day energy drink use was operationalized as no-use, use without concurrent alcohol, and concurrent use of energy drinks with alcohol ("within a couple of hours"). Negative alcohol outcomes included past-30-day binge drinking, past-30-day alcohol use disorder, and drinking-related consequences. Just over half (50.5%) reported no use of energy drinks,18.3% reported using energy drinks without concurrent alcohol use, and 31.2% reported concurrent use of energy drinks and alcohol. Relative to those who reported concurrent use of energy drinks with alcohol, and controlling for background characteristics and frequency of alcohol consumption, those who didn't use energy drinks and those who used without concurrent alcohol use had significantly lower binge drinking, negative consequences, and rates of alcohol use disorder (P energy drink without concurrent alcohol groups on any alcohol-related measure (P > .10 for all outcomes). Concurrent energy drink and alcohol use is associated with increased risk for negative alcohol consequences in young adults. Clinicians providing care to young adults could consider asking patients about concurrent energy drink and alcohol use as a way to begin a conversation about risky alcohol consumption while addressing 2 substances commonly used by this population.

  1. Trampoline related injuries in children: risk factors and radiographic findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimek, Peter Michael; Juen, David; Stranzinger, Enno; Wolf, Rainer; Slongo, Theddy

    2013-05-01

    Backyard trampolines are immensely popular among children, but are associated with an increase of trampoline-related injuries. The aim of this study was to evaluate radiographs of children with trampoline related injuries and to determine the risk factors. Between 2003 and 2009, 286 children under the age of 16 with backyard trampoline injuries were included in the study. The number of injuries increased from 13 patients in 2003 to 86 in 2009. The median age of the 286 patients was 7 years (range: 1-15 years). Totally 140 (49%) patients were males, and 146 (51%) females. Medical records and all available diagnostic imaging were reviewed. A questionnaire was sent to the parents to evaluate the circumstances of each injury, the type of trampoline, the protection equipment and the experience of the children using the trampoline. The study was approved by the Institutional Ethics Committee of the University Hospital of Bern. The questionnaires and radiographs of the 104 patients were available for evaluation. A fracture was sustained in 51 of the 104 patients. More than 75% of all patients sustaining injuries and in 90% of patients with fractures were jumping on the trampoline with other children at the time of the accident. The most common fractures were supracondylar humeral fractures (29%) and forearm fractures (25%). Fractures of the proximal tibia occurred especially in younger children between 2-5 years of age. Children younger than 5 years old are at risk for specific proximal tibia fractures ("Trampoline Fracture"). A child jumping simultaneously with other children has a higher risk of suffering from a fracture.

  2. 12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk. The... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE...

  3. Black hole based tests of general relativity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yagi, Kent; Stein, Leo C

    2016-01-01

    General relativity has passed all solar system experiments and neutron star based tests, such as binary pulsar observations, with flying colors. A more exotic arena for testing general relativity is in systems that contain one or more black holes. Black holes are the most compact objects in the Universe, providing probes of the strongest-possible gravitational fields. We are motivated to study strong-field gravity since many theories give large deviations from general relativity only at large field strengths, while recovering the weak-field behavior. In this article, we review how one can probe general relativity and various alternative theories of gravity by using electromagnetic waves from a black hole with an accretion disk, and gravitational waves from black hole binaries. We first review model-independent ways of testing gravity with electromagnetic/gravitational waves from a black hole system. We then focus on selected examples of theories that extend general relativity in rather simple ways. Some important characteristics of general relativity include (but are not limited to) (i) only tensor gravitational degrees of freedom, (ii) the graviton is massless, (iii) no quadratic or higher curvatures in the action, and (iv) the theory is four-dimensional. Altering a characteristic leads to a different extension of general relativity: (i) scalar–tensor theories, (ii) massive gravity theories, (iii) quadratic gravity, and (iv) theories with large extra dimensions. Within each theory, we describe black hole solutions, their properties, and current and projected constraints on each theory using black hole based tests of gravity. We close this review by listing some of the open problems in model-independent tests and within each specific theory. (paper)

  4. Perceptions of risk from workers in high risk industries with work related musculoskeletal disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, D; Silverstein, B

    2014-01-01

    Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) remain a major occupational health problem, despite decades of research, outreach, and intervention. The aim of this study is to promote early identification and prevention of WMSDs by developing education and outreach materials grounded in interview data collected from workers that have recently filed for workers compensation (WC) for WMSDs. We conducted semi-structured telephone interviews with WC claimants (n=66) from high risk industries identified through the use of a Prevention Index (PI) in Washington state with WMSDs of the back, shoulder, hand/wrist, or knee. Perceptions regarding the degree of exposure to WMSD risk factors, the social construction of pain, and the potential to implement injury-prevention measures varied widely. Many workers dismissed their injuries as the result of "fluke" or "freak" occurrences and framed their exposure to risk factors for WMSDs as either inevitable or "just part of the job." Workers in high-risk industries for WMSDs described their work conditions in ways that suggested: (1) a lack of awareness of the potential for developing a WMSD, (2) a view of work-related pain as normal, and/or (3) a pattern of self-blame for WMSD onset. A paradigm that either asserts the inevitability of WMSDs or dismisses potential control measures presents both a significant barrier to injury prevention efforts as well as a major opportunity for future occupational health research.

  5. Autoantibodies to IA-2beta improve diabetes risk assessment in high-risk relatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Achenbach, P; Bonifacio, E; Williams, A J K

    2008-01-01

    -positive participants (median age 12.1 years; 57% male), 113 developed diabetes (5 year cumulative risk 56%), and 148 were also GADA-positive and IAA-positive (4Ab-positive). IA2betaA were detected in 137 (65%) ICA/IA2A-positive participants and were associated with an increased 5 year diabetes risk (IA2beta......A-positive 65 vs 39% in IA2betaA-negative, p=0.0002). The effect was most marked in 4Ab-positive relatives (72% vs 52%, p=0.003). Metabolic testing further refined risk assessment. Among 101 4Ab-positive relatives with IA2betaA, the 5 year risk was 94% in those with a low FPIR (vs 50% in those with a normal...... FPIR, p4Ab/IA2betaA-positive participants with a low FPIR was 1.5 years. Multivariate analysis confirmed IA2betaA status, antibody number, young...

  6. Risk-based inspection of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masopust, R.

    1995-01-01

    A multidiscipline research programme was developed in the USA to establish risk-based inspections for NPP structures and equipment components. Based on this US research effort, the risk-based procedure for developing inspection guidelines for NPPs is described. The procedure includes the definition of systems, qualitative risk assessment, qualitative risk analysis and development of the inspection programme. The method, when adopted and modified, is recommended also for risk-based inspections of structures and equipment of WWER-type NPPs. A pilot application of the method to unit 1 of the Surry NPP is summarized. (Z.S.) 1 tab., 1 fig., 5 refs

  7. Familial risk of epilepsy: a population-based study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peljto, Anna L.; Barker-Cummings, Christie; Vasoli, Vincent M.; Leibson, Cynthia L.; Hauser, W. Allen; Buchhalter, Jeffrey R.

    2014-01-01

    Almost all previous studies of familial risk of epilepsy have had potentially serious methodological limitations. Our goal was to address these limitations and provide more rigorous estimates of familial risk in a population-based study. We used the unique resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to identify all 660 Rochester, Minnesota residents born in 1920 or later with incidence of epilepsy from 1935–94 (probands) and their 2439 first-degree relatives who resided in Olmsted County. We assessed incidence of epilepsy in relatives by comprehensive review of the relatives’ medical records, and estimated age-specific cumulative incidence and standardized incidence ratios for epilepsy in relatives compared with the general population, according to proband and relative characteristics. Among relatives of all probands, cumulative incidence of epilepsy to age 40 was 4.7%, and risk was increased 3.3-fold (95% confidence interval 2.75–5.99) compared with population incidence. Risk was increased to the greatest extent in relatives of probands with idiopathic generalized epilepsies (standardized incidence ratio 6.0) and epilepsies associated with intellectual or motor disability presumed present from birth, which we denoted ‘prenatal/developmental cause’ (standardized incidence ratio 4.3). Among relatives of probands with epilepsy without identified cause (including epilepsies classified as ‘idiopathic’ or ‘unknown cause’), risk was significantly increased for epilepsy of prenatal/developmental cause (standardized incidence ratio 4.1). Similarly, among relatives of probands with prenatal/developmental cause, risk was significantly increased for epilepsies without identified cause (standardized incidence ratio 3.8). In relatives of probands with generalized epilepsy, standardized incidence ratios were 8.3 (95% confidence interval 2.93–15.31) for generalized epilepsy and 2.5 (95% confidence interval 0.92–4.00) for focal epilepsy. In relatives of

  8. Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

  9. Risk Management in Supply Chain using Consistent Fuzzy Preference Relations

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad Jafarnejad; Mehran Ebrahimi; Mohammad Ali Abbaszadeh; Seyed Mehdi Abtahi

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, supply chains are exposed to numerous risks. Thus, to success in risky business environment, it is imperative for firms to systematically manage supply chain risks. Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of supply chain risks. The purpose of this paper is to propose a comprehensive approach to risk management in supply chains. Thus, by an appropriate review of the literature, supply chain risk sources are identified in six areas. Then, a CFPR method is...

  10. SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

  11. Lifestyle-based risk model for fall risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Sannino, Giovanna; De Falco, Ivanoe; De Pietro, Guiseppe

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this study was to identify the explicit relationship between life-style and the risk of falling under the form of a mathematical model. Starting from some personal and behavioral information of a subject as, e.g., weight, height, age, data about physical activity habits, and concern about falling, the model would estimate the score of her/his Mini-Balance Evaluation Systems (Mini-BES) test. This score ranges within 0 and 28, and the lower its value the more likely the subj...

  12. Some statistical considerations related to the estimation of cancer risk following exposure to ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Land, C.E.; Pierce, D.A.

    1983-01-01

    Statistical theory and methodology provide the logical structure for scientific inference about the cancer risk associated with exposure to ionizing radiation. Although much is known about radiation carcinogenesis, the risk associated with low-level exposures is difficult to assess because it is too small to measure directly. Estimation must therefore depend upon mathematical models which relate observed risks at high exposure levels to risks at lower exposure levels. Extrapolated risk estimates obtained using such models are heavily dependent upon assumptions about the shape of the dose-response relationship, the temporal distribution of risk following exposure, and variation of risk according to variables such as age at exposure, sex, and underlying population cancer rates. Expanded statistical models, which make explicit certain assumed relationships between different data sets, can be used to strengthen inferences by incorporating relevant information from diverse sources. They also allow the uncertainties inherent in information from related data sets to be expressed in estimates which partially depend upon that information. To the extent that informed opinion is based upon a valid assessment of scientific data, the larger context of decision theory, which includes statistical theory, provides a logical framework for the incorporation into public policy decisions of the informational content of expert opinion

  13. Anemia risk in relation to lead exposure in lead-related manufacturing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nan-Hung Hsieh

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Lead-exposed workers may suffer adverse health effects under the currently regulated blood lead (BPb levels. However, a probabilistic assessment about lead exposure-associated anemia risk is lacking. The goal of this study was to examine the association between lead exposure and anemia risk among factory workers in Taiwan. Methods We first collated BPb and indicators of hematopoietic function data via health examination records that included 533 male and 218 female lead-exposed workers between 2012 and 2014. We used benchmark dose (BMD modeling to estimate the critical effect doses for detection of abnormal indicators. A risk-based probabilistic model was used to characterize the potential hazard of lead poisoning for job-specific workers by hazard index (HI. We applied Bayesian decision analysis to determine whether BMD could be implicated as a suitable BPb standard. Results Our results indicated that HI for total lead-exposed workers was 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.50–1.26 with risk occurrence probability of 11.1%. The abnormal risk of anemia indicators for male and female workers could be reduced, respectively, by 67–77% and 86–95% by adopting the suggested BPb standards of 25 and 15 μg/dL. Conclusions We conclude that cumulative exposure to lead in the workplace was significantly associated with anemia risk. This study suggests that current BPb standard needs to be better understood for the application of lead-exposed population protection in different scenarios to provide a novel standard for health management. Low-level lead exposure risk is an occupational and public health problem that should be paid more attention.

  14. A risk-based review of Instrument Air systems at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeMoss, G.; Lofgren, E.; Rothleder, B.; Villeran, M.; Ruger, C.

    1990-01-01

    The broad objective of this analysis was to provide risk-based information to help focus regulatory actions related to Instrument Air (IA) systems at operating nuclear power plants. We first created an extensive data base of summarized and characterized IA-related events that gave a qualitative indication of the nature and severity of these events. Additionally, this data base was used to calculate the frequencies of certain events, which were used in the risk analysis. The risk analysis consisted of reviewing published PRAs and NRC Accident Sequence Precursor reports for IA-initiated accident sequences, IA interactions with frontline systems, and IA-related risk significant events. Sensitivity calculations were performed when possible. Generically, IA was found to contribute less to total risk than many safety systems; however, specific design weaknesses in safety systems, non-safety systems, and the IA system were found to be significant in risk. 22 refs., 13 figs., 24 tabs

  15. The Role of Knowledge in the prevention of natural hazards and related risks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Miccadei

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Human activities, especially over the last two centuries, have had a huge impact on the environment and the landscape. Mankind is able to control and induce landscape changes but is subject to natural processes and hazards due to severe and extreme events (particularly earthquakes but also landslides and flooding and related risks. Risks are the result of hazards, exposed elements and vulnerability and they are consequently not only an expression of the natural environment, but also related to human interaction with nature. Risks need to be addressed regularly by means of a high level of knowledge in order to provide most up­to­date information for any decision which needs to be taken by any party involved. A high level of knowledge concerning natural hazards and related risks stems from the geological and geomorphological history and from the historical records of the natural processes and grows with multi­scale, multi­temporal and multidisciplinary studies and investigations, which include land management, economic and social issues. A strong effort has to be made in this way to improve risk assessment and the enforcement of existing laws and ­ if necessary ­ new laws, really stem from recent disasters. This will help to achieve improved and effective land management, based on an interdisciplinary approach in which expert geologists and land managers will play a role, because of the importance of natural processes in inducing risks.

  16. Risk of Debt-Based Financing in Indonesian Islamic Banking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kharisya Ayu Effendi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to know the risk of debt-based financing in Islamic banking in Indonesia by using an accounting based calculation, those are NPF analysis, Credit risk Z-score and Altman Z-score. This study is telling about the risk of debt-based finacing on Indonesian Islamic banking using an accounting based measurement, those are NPF analysis, Credit Risk Z-score analysis and Altman Z-score analysis. The data was obtained from 2011 to 2015 from the website of each bank. The result is a risk on debt-based financing on Indonesian Islamic banking is low. The measurement using 3 accounting based measurement tool gives a consistent result, that is Indonesian Islamic banking use a debt-based financing have a high financial stability and a low risk.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v9i2.4821

  17. Dealing with project complexity by matrix-based propagation modelling for project risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Fang , Chao; Marle , Franck

    2012-01-01

    International audience; Engineering projects are facing a growing complexity and are thus exposed to numerous and interdependent risks. In this paper, we present a quantitative method for modelling propagation behaviour in the project risk network. The construction of the network requires the involvement of the project manager and related experts using the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) method. A matrix-based risk propagation model is introduced to calculate risk propagation and thus to re-eva...

  18. Some risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazighi, Ahmed El Hachemi

    2004-01-01

    Traditionally guided by long-term contracts, the international natural gas trade is experiencing new methods of operating, based on the short term and more flexibility. Today, indeed, the existence of uncommitted quantities of natural gas, combined with gas price discrepancies among different regions of the world, gives room for the expansion of the spot-trading of gas. The main objective of this paper is to discuss three fundamental risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas: volume risk, price risk and infrastructure risk. The defenders of globalisation argue that the transition from the long-term to the short-term trading of natural gas is mainly a question of access to gas reserves, decreasing costs of gas liquefaction, the building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fleets and regasification facilities and third-party access to the infrastructure. This process needs to be as short as possible, so that the risks related to the transition process will disappear rapidly. On the other hand, the detractors of globalisation put the emphasis on the complexity of the gas value chain and on the fact that eliminating long-term contracts increases the risks inherent to the international natural gas business. In this paper, we try to untangle and assess the risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas. Our main conclusions are: the short-term trading of gas is far from riskless; volume risk requires stock-building in both consuming and producing countries; price risk, through the high volatility for gas, induces an increase in options prices; there is no evidence to suggest that money-lenders' appetite for financing gas infrastructure projects will continue in a short-term trading system. This would be a threat to consumers' security of supply. (Author)

  19. The term 'risk' and its evaluation bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brueckner, R.

    1976-01-01

    The term risk, the risk itself and its application for radiation exposure in practised medicine is presented from the following points of view: Life expectation, susceptibility to sickness and permanent inability to work, impaired professional and earning capacity, work accident and sickness. (HP) [de

  20. Evaluation of hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nankaku, Manabu; Kanzaki, Hideto; Tsuboyama, Tadao; Nakamura, Takashi

    2005-11-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction, and to elucidate factors that influence the impact force in falls on the hip. Eight healthy volunteers performed deliberate falls in three directions (lateral, posterolateral and posterior) on a force platform covered by a mattress of 13 cm thickness. Fall descent motions and impact postures were examined by a three-dimensional analyzer. The maximum ground force reaction, velocity of the greater trochanter at impact, and activity of quadriceps and gluteus medius were measured. In all trials of lateral and posterolateral falls, but not of posterior falls, the subjects hit their greater trochanter directly on the mattress. The impact forces were between 2,000 N and 4,000 N. Posterolateral falls showed significantly higher velocity at impact than did posterior falls. The height and the lower limb length exhibited positive correlations with the impact force in all directions of fall. In the lateral fall, there was a positive correlation between the activity of quadriceps and the impact force. In view of the impact point, force, and velocity, the posterolateral fall seemed to carry the highest risk of hip fracture.

  1. Demographic And Risk Factors Related To Military Tuberculosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rasolinejad

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aim: Tuberculosis is one the major health care problems in developing countries. Miliary tuberculosis is induced by blood dissemination of multiple tubercle bacilli, the paramount importance of accurate diagnosis of military tuberculosis is because of its dismal outcome if untreated and the chance of cure if diagnosis happens early in the course of the disorder. In this study we describe the demographic and risk factors related to military tuberculosis, which enables us to control and reduce the incidence of military tuberculosis. This ultimately reduces the mortality and morbidity consistent with this disorder. Materials and Methods: we conducted a retrospective case control study, which compares 28 patients with military tuberculosis and 56 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis as control. We reviewed all the patients' documents registered between years 1994-2004, after extracting raw data we analyzed them with chi-square and Fisher exact tests. Results and Conclusion: We found that HIV (P< 0.05 infection and lack of BCG vaccination (P< 0.05 increases the number of military tuberculosis among our patients. In addition we did not find any other significant risk factor.

  2. Relative risk perception for terrorism: implications for preparedness and risk communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caponecchia, Carlo

    2012-09-01

    Terrorism presents a significant risk that is often approached at public policy, infrastructure, or emergency management level. Public perceptions of the likelihood of terrorist events, and how this may relate to individual preparedness, are not always extensively examined. The tendency to think that negative events are less likely to happen to oneself than to the average person is known as optimism bias. Optimism bias is relevant to perceptions of terrorism, because it is thought to be related to a reduction in precaution use. Using an online survey of 164 participants, this study aimed to determine whether Sydney residents thought they had a lower likelihood of experiencing terrorist events than other Australians. Significant optimism bias was observed for witnessing terrorist events, but not for personally experiencing terrorist events. In addition, Sydney residents tended to think that terrorist attacks were more likely to occur in Sydney than another major Australian city in the next five years. At the same time, household and workplace preparedness for terrorism was quite low, as was awareness of emergency strategies in the central business district. Perceptions of high likelihood of terrorism happening in one's own city, yet low preparedness present a challenge for risk communication and emergency management strategies. The diversity of possible terrorist targets, and the simple plans that can moderate the effects of a disaster may need to be emphasized in future anti-terrorism initiatives. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Reduction of work-related musculoskeletal risk factors following ergonomics education of sewing machine operators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulduk, Sıdıka; Bulduk, Emre Özgür; Süren, Tufan

    2017-09-01

    Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) are a major hazard for sewing machine operators. Ergonomics education is recommended for reducing musculoskeletal disorders at workstations. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of an ergonomics education in reducing the exposure to risk factors for WMSDs among sewing machine operators. In this study of 278 workers, their exposure to the risk of WMSDs was assessed using the quick exposure check scale prior to them attending an ergonomics education programme and then again 3 months after the programme. The scores for risk exposure before the education programme were moderate for back (static) and back (dynamic), high for shoulder/arm and very high for wrist/hand and neck. The results obtained 3 months later were low for back (static) and shoulder/arm, and moderate for back (dynamic), wrist/hand and neck. Based on our results, ergonomics education can reduce the exposure to risk factors for WMSDs in the workplace.

  4. Public relations in risk communication: risk pr. The importance of public relations for risk communication; Public Relations in der Risikokommunikation: Risiko-PR. Die Bedeutung von Public Relations fuer die Risikokommunikation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehmann, K.

    2001-07-01

    Risks have become a central problem of our time, as is reflected in concepts like 'society at risk' and 'anti-technological attitude', in group protest against risks and against those who cause them, and last but not least in the critical attitude of the media. Against this background, organisations must needs enter the public discussion and be able to communicate professionally and convincingly in order to ensure their own success and further existence. The book describes the basic problems of risk research and risk communications and discusses inhowfar, and how, public relations strategies and instruments can help here. [German] Risiken werden verstaerkt zum Problem unserer Zeit. Das belegen nicht nur Begriffe wie 'Risikogesellschaft' und 'Technikfeindlichkeit', die in letzter Zeit an Bedeutung gewonnen haben, sondern auch und vor allem nachhaltige Proteste von engagierten Gruppierungen gegen Risiken und deren Verursacher oder auch die kritische Berichterstattung der Medien. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist es fuer Organisationen erforderlich, in die oeffentliche Auseinandersetzung um Risiken einzusteigen und hier professionell und ueberzeugend zu kommunizieren, um den Organisationserfolg und Organisationsbestand zu sichern. Die vorliegende Arbeit beschreibt die Grundprobleme der Risikoforschung und Risikokommunikation und diskutiert, ob und inwieweit Public Relations bei der Loesung dieser Probleme helfen koennen, da insbesondere Public Relations gezielt Strategien und Instrumente nutzen, um beispielsweise den Wissensstand der Oeffentlichkeit zu verbessern und den Dialog mit relevanten Teiloeffentlichkeiten zu foerdern. (orig.)

  5. Prostate cancer risk prediction based on complete prostate cancer family history

    OpenAIRE

    Albright, Frederick; Stephenson, Robert A; Agarwal, Neeraj; Teerlink, Craig C; Lowrance, William T; Farnham, James M; Albright, Lisa A Cannon

    2014-01-01

    Background Prostate cancer (PC) relative risks (RRs) are typically estimated based on status of close relatives or presence of any affected relatives. This study provides RR estimates using extensive and specific PC family history. Methods A retrospective population-based study was undertaken to estimate RRs for PC based on complete family history of PC. A total of 635,443 males, all with ancestral genealogy data, were analyzed. RRs for PC were determined based upon PC rates estimated from ma...

  6. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  7. Relational-Based Sensor Data Cleansing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iftikhar, Nadeem; Liu, Xiufeng; Nordbjerg, Finn Ebertsen

    2015-01-01

    cleansing approaches, such as classification, prediction and moving average are not suited for embedded sensor devices, due to the limited storage and processing capabilities. In this paper, we propose a sensor data cleansing approach using the relational-based technologies, including constraints, triggers...... and granularity-based data aggregation. The proposed approach is simple but effective to cleanse different types of dirty data, including delayed data, incomplete data, incorrect data, duplicate data and missing data. We evaluate the proposed strategy to verify its efficiency, effectiveness and adaptability.......Today sensors are widely used in many monitoring applications. Due to some random environmental effects and/or sensing failures, the collected sensor data is typically noisy. Thus, it is critical to cleanse the sensor data before using it to answer queries or conduct data analysis. Popular data...

  8. Relational-Based Sensor Data Cleansing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iftikhar, Nadeem; Nordbjerg, Finn Ebertsen

    2015-01-01

    approaches, such as classification, prediction and moving average, are not suited for embedded sensor devices, due to their limit storage and processing capabilities. In this paper, we propose a sensor data cleansing approach using the relational-based technologies, including constraints, triggers...... and granularity-based data aggregation. The proposed approach is simple but effective to cleanse different types of dirty data, including delayed data, incomplete data, incorrect data, duplicate data and missing data. We evaluate the proposed strategy to verify its efficiency and effectiveness.......Today sensors are widely used in many monitoring applications. Due to some random environmental effects and/or sensing failures, the collected sensor data is typically noisy. Thus, it is critical to cleanse the data before using it for answering queries or for data analysis. Popular data cleansing...

  9. An Evidence Base for Human Spaceflight Risks in Wikipedia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundrot, Craig; Steil, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Pellis, Neal

    2013-01-01

    NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is focused on understanding and mitigating thirty two risks to crew health and performance in exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit. The HRP has developed an evidence report for each of the risks. Most evidence reports are a brief review article describing the evidence related to a specified risk, written at a level appropriate for the scientifically educated, non-specialist reader. Each evidence report captured the current state of knowledge from both research and operations. Two limitations of the evidence reports have become apparent: 1) they are updated infrequently and 2) they do not take full advantage of the expertise available in other space agencies and in related fields of terrestrial research. Therefore, the HRP is experimenting with the use of Wikipedia articles as a repository for evidence. Wikipedia's accessibility to the international space flight community and researchers in related terrestrial fields creates the opportunity to generate a more timely and comprehensive evidence base. Initial Wikipedia articles were populated for seven risks using a subset of the information in the HRP-approved evidence reports: Fatigue and Sleep Loss, Treating An Ill or Injured Crew Member, Radiation Carcinogenesis, Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure, Renal Stone Formation, Team Cohesion, and Intervertebral Disc Damage. Since the initial articles were created, there have been additions to these Wikipedia articles, including content from sources outside the HRP, and editorial changes to the pages. We will report on the nature of the contributions made after the initial articles were created, the comprehensiveness of the resulting Wikipedia articles, and the effort required to maintain quality control of the content. The Wikipedia approach will also be compared to wiki efforts that exert more traditional editorial control of content prior to posting.

  10. Process-based project proposal risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alok Kumar

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We all are aware of the organizational omnipresence. Projects within the organizations are ubiquitous too. Projects achieve their goals successfully if they are planned, scheduled, controlled and implemented well. The project lifecycle of initiating, planning, scheduling, controlling and implementing are very well-planned by project managers and the organizations. Successful projects have well-developed risk management plans to deal with situations impacting projects. Like any other organisation, a university does try to access funds for different purposes too. For such organisations, running a project is not the issue, rather getting a project proposal approved to fund a project is the key. Project proposal processing is done by the nodal office in every organisation. Usually, these nodal offices help in administration and submission of a project proposal for accessing funds. Seldom are these nodal project offices within the organizations facilitate a project proposal approval by proactively reaching out to the project managers. And as project managers prepare project proposals, little or no attention is made to prepare a project proposal risk plan so as to maximise project acquisition. Risk plans are submitted while preparing proposals but these risk plans cater to a requirement to address actual projects upon approval. Hence, a risk management plan for project proposal is either missing or very little effort is made to treat the risks inherent in project acquisition. This paper is an integral attempt to highlight the importance of risk treatment for project proposal stage as an extremely important step to preparing the risk management plan made for projects corresponding to their lifecycle phases. Several tools and techniques have been proposed in the paper to help and guide either the project owner (proposer or the main organisational unit responsible for project management. Development of tools and techniques to further enhance project

  11. Air Quality Monitoring: Risk-Based Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, John T.

    2009-01-01

    Air monitoring is secondary to rigid control of risks to air quality. Air quality monitoring requires us to target the credible residual risks. Constraints on monitoring devices are severe. Must transition from archival to real-time, on-board monitoring. Must provide data to crew in a way that they can interpret findings. Dust management and monitoring may be a major concern for exploration class missions.

  12. Mind-Body Interventions to Reduce Risk for Health Disparities Related to Stress and Strength Among African American Women: The Potential of Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction, Loving-Kindness, and the NTU Therapeutic Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods-Giscombé, Cheryl L; Black, Angela R

    2010-12-14

    In the current article, the authors examine the potential role of mind-body interventions for preventing or reducing health disparities in a specific group-African American women. The authors first discuss how health disparities affect this group, including empirical evidence regarding the influence of biopsychosocial processes (e.g., psychological stress and social context) on disparate health outcomes. They also detail how African American women's unique stress experiences as a result of distinct sociohistorical and cultural experiences related to race and gender potentially widen exposure to stressors and influence stress responses and coping behaviors. Using two independent, but related, frameworks (Superwoman Schema [SWS] and the Strong Black Woman Script [SBW-S]), they discuss how, for African American women, stress is affected by "strength" (vis-à-vis resilience, fortitude, and self-sufficiency) and the emergent health-compromising behaviors related to strength (e.g., emotional suppression, extraordinary caregiving, and self-care postponement). The authors then describe the potential utility of three mind-body interventions-mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR), loving-kindness meditation (LKM), and NTU psychotherapy-for specifically targeting the stress-, strength-, and contextually related factors that are thought to influence disparate outcomes for African American women. Self-awareness, self-care, inter- and intrapersonal restorative healing and a redefinition of inner strength may manifest through developing a mindfulness practice to decrease stress-related responses; using LKM to cultivate compassion and forgiveness for self and others; and the balance of independence and interdependence as a grounding NTU principle for redefining strength. The authors conclude with a discussion of potential benefits for integrating key aspects of the interventions with recommendations for future research.

  13. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  14. Quantifying risk over the life course - latency, age-related susceptibility, and other time-varying exposure metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Molin; Liao, Xiaomei; Laden, Francine; Spiegelman, Donna

    2016-06-15

    Identification of the latency period and age-related susceptibility, if any, is an important aspect of assessing risks of environmental, nutritional, and occupational exposures. We consider estimation and inference for latency and age-related susceptibility in relative risk and excess risk models. We focus on likelihood-based methods for point and interval estimation of the latency period and age-related windows of susceptibility coupled with several commonly considered exposure metrics. The method is illustrated in a study of the timing of the effects of constituents of air pollution on mortality in the Nurses' Health Study. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Quantifying Risk Over the Life Course – Latency, Age-Related Susceptibility, and Other Time-Varying Exposure Metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Molin; Liao, Xiaomei; Laden, Francine; Spiegelman, Donna

    2016-01-01

    Identification of the latency period and age-related susceptibility, if any, is an important aspect of assessing risks of environmental, nutritional and occupational exposures. We consider estimation and inference for latency and age-related susceptibility in relative risk and excess risk models. We focus on likelihood-based methods for point and interval estimation of the latency period and age-related windows of susceptibility coupled with several commonly considered exposure metrics. The method is illustrated in a study of the timing of the effects of constituents of air pollution on mortality in the Nurses’ Health Study. PMID:26750582

  16. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

    OpenAIRE

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

    2011-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based Requirements Prioritization method (RiskREP) that extends misuse case-based methods with IT architecture based risk assessment and countermeasure definition and prioritization. Countermeasure prioritizati...

  17. A risk standard based on societal cost with bounded consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worledge, D.H.

    1982-01-01

    A risk standard is proposed that relates the frequency of occurrence of single events to the consequences of the events. Maximum consequences and risk aversion are used to give the cumulative risk curve a shape similar to the results of a risk assessment and to bound the expectation of deaths. Societal costs in terms of deaths are used to fix the parameters of the model together with an approximate comparison with individual risks. The proposed standard is compared with some practical applications of risk assessment to nuclear reactor systems

  18. Vitamin E and risk of age-related cataract: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yufei; Jiang, Wenjie; Xie, Zhutian; Wu, Wenlong; Zhang, Dongfeng

    2015-10-01

    We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship between vitamin E and age-related cataract (ARC). The fixed- or random-effect model was selected based on heterogeneity. Meta-regression was used to explore potential sources of between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was evaluated using Begg's test. The dose-response relationship was assessed by a restricted cubic spline model. Relevant studies were identified by a search of PubMed and the Cochrane Library to May 2014, without language restrictions. Studies involved samples of people of all ages. Dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high serum tocopherol levels were significantly associated with decreased risk of ARC, the pooled relative risk was 0·73 (95% CI 0·58, 0·92), 0·86 (95% CI 0·75, 0·99) and 0·77 (95% CI 0·66, 0·91), respectively. Supplemental vitamin E intake was non-significantly associated with ARC risk (relative risk=0·92; 95% CI 0·78, 1·07). The findings from dose-response analysis showed evidence of a non-linear association between dietary vitamin E intake and ARC. The risk of ARC decreased with dietary vitamin E intake from 7 mg/d (relative risk=0·94; 95% CI 0·90, 0·97). The findings of the meta-analysis indicated that dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high level of serum tocopherol might be significantly associated with reduced ARC risk.

  19. Risk assessment and model for community-based construction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It, therefore, becomes necessary to systematically manage uncertainty in community-based construction in order to increase the likelihood of meeting project objectives using necessary risk management strategies. Risk management, which is an iterative process due to the dynamic nature of many risks, follows three main ...

  20. [Interpersonal relations as a source of risk of mobbing in the local police].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segurado Torres, Almudena; Agulló Tomás, Esteban; Rodríguez Suárez, Julio; Agulló Tomás, Ma Silveria; Boada i Grau, Joan; Medina Centeno, Raúl

    2008-11-01

    Social relations in the workplace are one of the main sources of risk for the onset of mobbing. In this work, we analyzed, through the perceived social climate, the influence of interpersonal relations on the characterization of the processes of mobbing, in a sample of local police (N = 235). In particular, the policemen and women's opinions of the quality of the personal relations among the group members and the treatment they receive from the command posts were assessed. The results of the study show that the development of guidelines of social interaction based on discrimination and abuse of authority are predicting variables of mobbing in this group.

  1. An approach to quantitative assessment of relative proliferation risks from nuclear fuel cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silvennoinen, P.; Vira, J.

    1981-01-01

    Feasibility of quantitative assessments of the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation is discussed in this paper. The proliferation risk is defined as a combined utility of the different fuel cycle processes or materials for the proscribed acquisition of a nuclear weapon. Based on a set of selected weighted criteria, the process utilities are calculated employing utility functions or fuzzy expectation values. The methods are compared to each other. The scheme appears feasible in relative comparisons while certain leeway must still be retained for political judgement. (author)

  2. The derivation and application of a risk related value for saving a statistical life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, D.; Stone, D.; Butler, G.G.; Mcglynn, G.

    2004-01-01

    A risk related value of spend for saving a statistical life (VSSSL) is proposed for cost-benefit studies across the power generation sector, and the nuclear industry in particular. An upper bound on VSSSL is set based on the UK government standard of around pound 1 M or, in particular circumstances, pound 2 M and the observation that excessive spend (probably of the order of more than pound 5 M per statistical life) will actually cost lives. Above a risk of 10 -3 a -1 it is assumed that VSSSL approaches maximum sustainable value around pound 2 M, whereas below a risk of 10 -9 a -1 the value of further risk reduction approaches zero. At risks around 10 -6 a -1 it is proposed that an appropriate VSSL lies in the range pound 0.25 M to pound 1 M. With respect to radiological protection, it is suggested that where collective doses are dominated by average individual doses no more than a few μSv, the detriment arising from a man-Sv can be valued at about pound 15 k to pound 60 k. It is further suggested that for individual dose contributions below 0.01 μSv (representing a risk equivalent to less than 10 -9 ) a low residual VSSSL should be applied in cost-benefit analyses based on collective dose exposures. (author)

  3. Risk-based maintenance-Techniques and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arunraj, N.S.; Maiti, J.

    2007-01-01

    Plant and equipment, however well designed, will not remain safe or reliable if it is not maintained. The general objective of the maintenance process is to make use of the knowledge of failures and accidents to achieve the possible safety with the lowest possible cost. The concept of risk-based maintenance was developed to inspect the high-risk components usually with greater frequency and thoroughness and to maintain in a greater manner, to achieve tolerable risk criteria. Risk-based maintenance methodology provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making to reduce the probability of failure of equipment and the consequences of failure. In this paper, the risk analysis and risk-based maintenance methodologies were identified and classified into suitable classes. The factors affecting the quality of risk analysis were identified and analyzed. The applications, input data and output data were studied to understand their functioning and efficiency. The review showed that there is no unique way to perform risk analysis and risk-based maintenance. The use of suitable techniques and methodologies, careful investigation during the risk analysis phase, and its detailed and structured results are necessary to make proper risk-based maintenance decisions

  4. Diet-related risk factors for gastric dilatation-volvulus in dogs of high-risk breeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, Malathi; Glickman, Nita; McCabe, George; Lantz, Gary; Glickman, Lawrence T

    2004-01-01

    A nested case-control study was conducted among 1634 dogs with complete diet information in a 5-year prospective study to determine diet-related risk factors for gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV). Cases included 106 dogs that developed GDV; controls included 212 dogs without GDV that were frequency matched to cases by year of GDV onset. Proportionate energy consumed from major food types and from carbohydrates was determined. Dogs were categorized as consuming either a low volume or high volume of food based on the median number of cups of food fed per kg of body weight per meal. Dogs fed a larger volume of food per meal were at a significantly (Pdogs, the risk of GDV was highest for dogs fed a larger volume of food once daily.

  5. Estimation of baseline lifetime risk of developed cancer related to radiation exposure in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xiaoliang; Niu Haowei; Sun Quanfu; Ma Weidong

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To introduce the general international method for estimation of lifetime risk of developed cancer, and to estimate the lifetime risk baseline values of several kinds of cancers related to radiation exposures in China. Methods: The risk estimation was based on the data from Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report (2010) and China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook (2009), and made according to the method previously published by National Cancer Institute (NCI) in USA. Results: The lifetime risk of all cancer in China in 2007 was estimated to be 27.77%, that of lung cancer 5.96%, that of breast cancer for female 3.34%, that of all leukemia 0.14%, that of thyroid cancer 0.37%. The lifetime risks of all cancer were estimated to be 32.74% for males and 24.73% for females, and that was 36.47% for urban residents and 26.79% for rural people. Conclusions: The lifetime risk of all cancer for males in 2007 was about 1.25 times as much as that for females. The value of all cancer for urban residents was about 1.35 times as much as that for rural residents. The lifetime risk of developed cancers in 2007 in China is lower than that in the developed countries,such as Japan. (authors)

  6. Health risks associated with biogas. Assessment of health risks related to the injection of biogas into the natural gas network. Affset opinion. Collective expertise report. Final version

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    JAEG, Jean-Philippe; Bajeat, Philippe; Wenisch, Sandrine; Bellenfant, Gael; Godon, Jean-Jacques; Keck, Gerard; Lattes, Armand; Moletta-Denat, Marina; Naja, Ghinwa; Ramalho, Olivier; Zdanevitch, Isabelle; ALARY, Rene; RAMEL, Martine

    2008-10-01

    This publication reports a study which aimed at acquiring and analysing available bibliographical data regarding risks associated with the exposure to toxic compounds in relationship with the injection of biogas into the natural gas network, at characterising biogas composition and notably their content in potentially toxic compounds with respect to the currently distributed natural gas, at assessing health risks related to the exposure to toxic agents before and after combustion, also with respect to the currently distributed natural gas, and, based on this risk assessment, at determining biogas composition characteristics. Thus, after a presentation of the context, scope and modalities of this study, the report proposes an overview of various contextual aspects related to biogas (interest, production means, purification processes, valorisation, injection processes), the report discusses chemical risks related to biogas: bibliographical study, biogas chemical composition, chemical composition of biogas combustion residues. It also discusses microbiological risks. Several appendices are provided

  7. Age-Related Sensory Impairments and Risk of Cognitive Impairment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Mary E; Cruickshanks, Karen J.; Schubert, Carla R; Pinto, Alex A; Carlsson, Cynthia M; Klein, Barbara EK; Klein, Ronald; Tweed, Ted S.

    2016-01-01

    Background/Objectives To evaluate the associations of sensory impairments with the 10-year risk of cognitive impairment. Previous work has primarily focused on the relationship between a single sensory system and cognition. Design The Epidemiology of Hearing Loss Study (EHLS) is a longitudinal, population-based study of aging in the Beaver Dam, WI community. Baseline examinations were conducted in 1993 and follow-up exams have been conducted every 5 years. Setting General community Participants EHLS members without cognitive impairment at EHLS-2 (1998–2000). There were 1,884 participants (mean age = 66.7 years) with complete EHLS-2 sensory data and follow-up information. Measurements Cognitive impairment was a Mini-Mental State Examination score of impairment was a pure-tone average of hearing thresholds (0.5, 1, 2 and 4 kHz) of > 25 decibel Hearing Level in either ear. Visual impairment was Pelli-Robson contrast sensitivity of impairment was a San Diego Odor Identification Test score of impairment were independently associated with cognitive impairment risk [Hearing: Hazard Ratio (HR) = 1.90, 95% Confidence Interval (C.I.) = 1.11, 3.26; Vision: HR = 2.05, 95% C.I. = 1.24, 3.38; Olfaction: HR = 3.92, 95% C.I. = 2.45, 6.26]. However, 85% with hearing impairment, 81% with visual impairment, and 76% with olfactory impairment did not develop cognitive impairment during follow-up. Conclusion The relationship between sensory impairment and cognitive impairment was not unique to one sensory system suggesting sensorineural health may be a marker of brain aging. The development of a combined sensorineurocognitive measure may be useful in uncovering mechanisms of healthy brain aging. PMID:27611845

  8. HIV-related sexual risk behaviors among male-to-female transgender people in Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatta, Dharma Nand

    2014-05-01

    Transgender women are a vulnerable and key risk group for HIV, and most research has shown an increased frequency of HIV infection among this minority population. This study examined the prevalence of HIV-related sexual risk behaviors and the socio-demographic correlates with HIV-related sexual risk behaviors among male-to-female (MtF) transgender persons. Data were collected from a sample of 232 individuals through venue-based and snowball sampling and face-to-face interviews. The HIV-related sexual risk behaviors among the MtF transgender persons were: sex without using a condom (48.3%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 41.8-54.8), unprotected anal sex (68.1%; 95% CI 62.0-74.2), and unprotected sex with multiple partners (88.4%; 95% CI 84.3-92.5). Statistically significant differences were found for age, income, education, alcohol habit, and sex with more than two partners per day for these three different HIV-related sexual risk behaviors. MtF transgender persons with a secondary or higher level of education were three times (OR 2.93) more likely to have unprotected sex with multiple partners compared to those with a primary level or no education. Age, education, income, frequency of daily sexual contact, and an alcohol habit remain significant with regard to HIV-related sexual risk behavior. There is an urgent need for programs and interventions to reduce risky sexual behaviors in this minority population. Copyright © 2014 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  9. A Knowledge-Based Model of Audit Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Dhar, Vasant; Lewis, Barry; Peters, James

    1988-01-01

    Within the academic and professional auditing communities, there has been growing concern about how to accurately assess the various risks associated with performing an audit. These risks are difficult to conceptualize in terms of numeric estimates. This article discusses the development of a prototype computational model (computer program) that assesses one of the major audit risks -- inherent risk. This program bases most of its inferencing activities on a qualitative model of a typical bus...

  10. Big data based fraud risk management at Alibaba

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Jidong; Tao, Ye; Wang, Haoran; Chen, Tao

    2015-01-01

    With development of mobile internet and finance, fraud risk comes in all shapes and sizes. This paper is to introduce the Fraud Risk Management at Alibaba under big data. Alibaba has built a fraud risk monitoring and management system based on real-time big data processing and intelligent risk models. It captures fraud signals directly from huge amount data of user behaviors and network, analyzes them in real-time using machine learning, and accurately predicts the bad users and transactions....

  11. Relative risk models of lung cancer in uranium miners

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tomasek, L [National Radiation Protection Institute, Prague (Czech Republic); Placek, V [Inst. for Expertises and Emergencies, Pribram-Kamenna (Czech Republic)

    1996-12-31

    The study population of the S cohort (studies of underground miners of uranium and other substances as the source of information on long term effects of exposure to radon and its progeny) involve uranium miners, that started underground work at the Jachymov and Horni Slavkov mines in the period 1978-1959, and had worked at least for four years. A total 4320 men satisfied these criteria. During the decade up to 1990, follow-up of the cohort mainly relied on the national population registry. In order to improve the follow-u, a series of additional checks were conducted: in the files of the Czech and Slovak Pensions Offices, by local enquires, and by direct correspondence. These additional efforts resulted in an increase of more than 10% in the numbers of known men to have died or emigrated. An exceptional feature of the S study is the large number of measurements of radon concentrations made in each mine-shaft (mean number per year and shaft was 223 in the period 1949-1960). Each man`s annual exposures to radon progeny in terms of working levels were estimated combining measurement data with men`s employment details. The excess relative risk models were used in the form RR = c(1 + ERR(w,x)), where ERR is excess relative risk, w and x denote exposure history and modifying variable, and c is an intercept term that allows the mortality rate for `unexposed` cohort to differ from that in the general population. The increased mortality (O/E=1.58; where O is observed and E is expected cases among collected death cases in the cohort) in the cohort, generally, somewhat lower ratios than one reflect the non-industrial character of the region, with the exception of lung cancer in man. The differences in the O/E ratios for lung cancer among the separate communities indicate that even in the situation of generally lower mortality, the dependence of lung cancer mortality on radon exposure cannot be excluded. 3 tabs., 6 refs.

  12. Summary of vulnerability related technologies based on machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lei; Chen, Zhihao; Jia, Qiong

    2018-04-01

    As the scale of information system increases by an order of magnitude, the complexity of system software is getting higher. The vulnerability interaction from design, development and deployment to implementation stages greatly increases the risk of the entire information system being attacked successfully. Considering the limitations and lags of the existing mainstream security vulnerability detection techniques, this paper summarizes the development and current status of related technologies based on the machine learning methods applied to deal with massive and irregular data, and handling security vulnerabilities.

  13. Risk factors for age-related maculopathy in a 14-year follow-up study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buch, Helena; Vinding, Troels; la Cour, Morten

    2005-01-01

    To examine the association between potential risk factors and the 14-year incidence of age-related maculopathy (ARM).......To examine the association between potential risk factors and the 14-year incidence of age-related maculopathy (ARM)....

  14. Three Studies Point to Same Risk Gene for Age-Related Macular Degeneration

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... point to same risk gene for age-related macular degeneration NIH-funded research helps unravel the biology of ... rare, but powerful risk factor for age-related macular degeneration (AMD), a common cause of vision loss in ...

  15. Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

    1995-01-01

    The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

  16. Cernavoda NPP risk - Based test and maintenance planning - Methodology development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, G.; Popa, P.; Petrescu, A.; Naum, M.; Gutu, M.

    1997-01-01

    The Cernavoda Power Plant starts the commercial operation in November 1996. During operation of the nuclear power plant, several mandatory tests and maintenance are performed on stand-by safety system components to ensure their availability in case of accident. The basic purpose of such activities is the early detection of any failure and degradation, and timely correction of deteriorations. Because of the large number of such activities, emphasis on plant safety and allocation of resources becomes difficult. The probabilistic model and methodology can be effectively used to obtain the risk significance of these activities so that the resources are directed to the most important areas. The proposed Research Contract activity is strongly connected with other safety related areas under development. Since, the Cernavoda Probabilistic Safety Evaluation Level 1 PSA Study (CPSE) was performed and now the study is revised taking into account the as-built information, it is recommended to implement into the model the necessary modeling features to support further PSA application, especially related to Test and Maintenance optimization. Methods need to be developed in order to apply the PSA model including risk information together with other needed information for Test and Maintenance optimization. Also, in parallel with the CPSE study updating, the software interface for the PSA model is under development (Risk Monitor Software class), methods and models needing to be developed for the purpose of using it for qualified monitoring of Test and Maintenance Strategy efficiency. Similar, the Data Collection System need to be appropriate for the purpose of an ongoing implementation of a risk - based Test and Maintenance Strategy. (author). 4 refs, 1 fig

  17. Weather based risks and insurances for agricultural production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne

    2015-04-01

    Extreme weather events such as frost, drought, heat waves and rain storms can have devastating effects on cropping systems. According to both the agriculture and finance sectors, a risk assessment of extreme weather events and their impact on cropping systems is needed. The principle of return periods or frequencies of natural hazards is adopted in many countries as the basis of eligibility for the compensation of associated losses. For adequate risk management and eligibility, hazard maps for events with a 20-year return period are often used. Damages due to extreme events are strongly dependent on crop type, crop stage, soil type and soil conditions. The impact of extreme weather events particularly during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar therefore requires a modelling approach to capture the mixture of non-linear interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event in the farming calendar. Physically based crop models such as REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) assist in understanding the links between different factors causing crop damage. Subsequent examination of the frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and soil moisture stress in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages allows for risk profiles to be confronted with yields, yield losses and insurance claims. The methodology is demonstrated for arable food crops, bio-energy crops and fruit. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by limited aid received for agricultural damage, an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers and projected intensification of weather extremes with climate change. Though average yields have risen continuously due to technological advances, there is no evidence that relative tolerance to adverse weather events has improved. The research is funded by the Belgian Science Policy Organisation (Belspo) under contract nr SD/RI/03A.

  18. The Relationship between Musculoskeletal Symptoms and Work-related Risk Factors in Hotel Workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jin Woo; Lee, Ju Jong; Mun, Hyeon Je; Lee, Kyung-Jae; Kim, Joo Ja

    2013-10-11

    focused on structural risk factors in the working environment, such as the gender-based division of labor, shift work and labor intensity, that demonstrated a statistically significant correlation with the work-related musculoskeletal symptoms of hotel workers. Both men and women reported different prevalence rates of work-related musculoskeletal symptoms among different departments. This could indicate that a gender-based division of labor produces different ergonomic risk factors for each gender group. However, only females displayed a statistically significant correlation between shift work and labor intensity and musculoskeletal symptoms. Thus, minimizing ergonomic risk factors alone does not suffice to effectively prevent musculoskeletal diseases among hotel workers. Instead, work assignments should be based on gender, department, working hours and work intensity should be adjusted to address multi-dimensional musculoskeletal risk factors. In addition, an approach that seeks to minimize shift work is needed to reduce the incidence of musculoskeletal disorders.

  19. About some aspects of weather related risks in Spanish Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anton, J. M.; Tarquis, A. M.; Grau, J. B.; Saa, A.; Diaz, M. C.

    2009-04-01

    aggressive floods in 1500-1800 era, and actual added trends of "climate change" are towards higher temperatures, less water and higher perturbations. These long term risks are rather poorly predictable and will be handled mostly by improvements in agriculture and also by social and economic adaptations, but at shorter delays and specific areas active policies are possible and exist. An agribusiness can set his production plans lowering his global risk. Sometimes it might use prudently some financial instruments, such as "orange juice futures". When using decision making models, some utility functions may consider that severe losses have higher effects than good profits, letting ranges for business margins for insurers to be limited by concurrence at correct levels. Correct availability of credits is necessary for bad periods, and also state policies for rare bad situations, concerning agribusiness survival and also alimentary safety. Insurance products are effective aids for a growing variety of well definite natural risks, such as in cases of hailstorm, that have probabilities of occurrence measurable from previous events data, and a variety of adequate professional models are continuously made for them. Related to Universidad Politecnica de Madrid the CEIGRAM institute has started recently and is involved in agricultural insurance, being connected with insurers through ENESA and AGROMUTUA. That world is active, important, evolving, and is regulated by diverse laws.

  20. Risk of subarachnoid haemorrhage in first degree relatives of patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gaist, D; Vaeth, M; Tsiropoulos, I

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of occurrence of subarachnoid haemorrhage in first degree relatives (parents, siblings, children) of patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage. DESIGN: Population based cohort study using data from the Danish National Discharge Registry and the Central Person Registry......, standardised for age, sex, and calendar period. This process was repeated for patients discharged from neurosurgery units, as diagnoses from these wards had high validity (93%). RESULTS: 18 patients had a total of 19 first degree relatives with subarachnoid haemorrhage during the study period, corresponding...... to a standardised incidence ratio of 2.9 (95% confidence interval 1.9 to 4.6). Patients discharged from neurosurgery wards had a higher standardised incidence ratio (4.5, 2.7 to 7.3). CONCLUSIONS: First degree relatives of patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage have a threefold to fivefold increased risk...

  1. Principles of risk-based decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    United States. Coast Guard. Risk based decision-making guidelines

    2001-01-01

    ... original content in order to make this product more generically applicable and less Coast Guard specific. h s k assessment and risk management are important topics in industry and government. Because of limited resources and increasing demands for services, most organizations simply cannot continue business as usual. Even if resources are not dec...

  2. Internet-based screening for dementia risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Jason; Sullivan, Campbell; Burrell, Larry E; Rogerson, Mark; Anderson, Allan

    2013-01-01

    The Dementia Risk Assessment (DRA) is an online tool consisting of questions about known risk factors for dementia, a novel verbal memory test, and an informant report of cognitive decline. Its primary goal is to educate the public about dementia risk factors and encourage clinical evaluation where appropriate. In Study 1, more than 3,000 anonymous persons over age 50 completed the DRA about themselves; 1,000 people also completed proxy reports about another person. Advanced age, lower education, male sex, complaints of severe memory impairment, and histories of cerebrovascular disease, Parkinson's disease, and brain tumor all contributed significantly to poor memory performance. A high correlation was obtained between proxy-reported decline and actual memory test performance. In Study 2, 52 persons seeking first-time evaluation at dementia clinics completed the DRA prior to their visits. Their responses (and those of their proxy informants) were compared to the results of independent evaluation by geriatric neuropsychiatrists. The 30 patients found to meet criteria for probable Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, or frontotemporal dementia differed on the DRA from the 22 patients without dementia (most other neuropsychiatric conditions). Scoring below criterion on the DRA's memory test had moderately high predictive validity for clinically diagnosed dementia. Although additional studies of larger clinical samples are needed, the DRA holds promise for wide-scale screening for dementia risk.

  3. Perception of radiation related risks among three population groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihai, L.T.; Milu, C.; Voicu, B.; Enachescu, D.

    2003-01-01

    A questionnaire survey was conducted among three groups that mainly differ in socioeconomic status and professional exposure to ionizing radiations. Seventy-seven (26.3%) of the respondents were professionally exposed to radiation, 35 (11.9%) were medical doctors without professional exposure and 177 (68.4%) belonged to the general population group. The level of anxiety toward radiation, expressed as a concernedness index, is significantly lower in people who are professionally exposed to radiation compared to medical doctors and general population (0.81±0.94, 1.42±1.21 and 1.72±1.34 respectively, p < 0.001). In a similar manner, concernedness index values varied with the education status, with lowest values among medical university graduates and highest among public school graduates (p < 0.001). Both university-graduated groups significantly differ from the non-university groups (p < 0.05). Knowledge about radiation and knowledge about emergency plans in nuclear accident/incident were also checked in relation with concernedness, the results confirming the hypothesis that better knowledge associates lower concernedness. The extent to which people accept the civil utilization of nuclear power is also related to concernedness and knowledge, significant associations having been found. The results suggest that a political decision in radiation matter requires a valid analysis of the public's understanding and acceptance. For that reason, it is important that radiological protection authorities develop new plans and materials for communicating with people, in order to improve knowledge upon ionizing radiation, irradiation risks and safety of nuclear energy application for civil purposes. (author)

  4. Risks and safety aspects related to PET/MR examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brix, Gunnar; Nekolla, Elke A.; Nosske, Dietmar; Griebel, Juergen

    2009-01-01

    The introduction of positron emission tomography (PET)/magnetic resonance (MR) systems into medical practice in the foreseeable future may not only lead to a gain in clinical diagnosis compared to PET/computed tomography (CT) imaging due to the superior soft-tissue contrast of the MR technology but can also substantially reduce exposure of patients to ionizing radiation. On the other hand, there are also risks and health effects associated with the use of diagnostic MR devices that have to be considered carefully. This review article summarizes biophysical and biological aspects, which are of relevance for the assessment of health effects related to the exposure of patients to both ionizing radiation in PET and magnetic and electromagnetic fields in MR. On this basis, some considerations concerning the justification and optimization of PET/MR examinations are presented - as far as this is possible at this very early stage. Current safety standards do not take into account synergistic effects of ionizing radiation and magnetic and electromagnetic fields. In the light of the developing PET/MR technology, there is an urgent need to investigate this aspect in more detail for exposure levels that will occur at PET/MR systems. (orig.)

  5. Lung cancer risk in relation to traffic-related nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs exposure: a preliminary probabilistic assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Chung-Min; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Wei-Yu; Ju, Yun-Ru; Li, Wen-Hsuan; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Liao, Vivian Hsiu-Chuan; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Ling, Min-Pei

    2011-06-15

    Exposures to carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been linked to human lung cancer. The purpose of this study was to assess lung cancer risk caused by inhalation exposure to nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs at the population level in Taiwan appraised with recent published data. A human respiratory tract model was linked with a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model to estimate deposition fraction and internal organic-specific PAHs doses. A probabilistic risk assessment framework was developed to estimate potential lung cancer risk. We reanalyzed particle size distribution, total-PAHs, particle-bound benzo(a)pyrene (B[a]P) and PM concentrations. A dose-response profile describing the relationships between external B[a]P concentration and lung cancer risk response was constructed based on population attributable fraction (PAF). We found that 90% probability lung cancer risks ranged from 10(-5) to 10(-4) for traffic-related nano and ultrafine particle-bound PAHs, indicating a potential lung cancer risk. The particle size-specific PAF-based excess annual lung cancer incidence rate due to PAHs exposure was estimated to be less than 1 per 100,000 population, indicating a mild risk factor for lung cancer. We concluded that probabilistic risk assessment linked PAF for limiting cumulative PAHs emissions to reduce lung cancer risk plays a prominent role in future government risk assessment program. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Risk based rulemaking and design - Proceed with caution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zachariadis, Panos; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2007-01-01

    The trend towards a risk based regulatory framework at IMO and within classification societies is expanding while some voices claim that a full ship risk based scantlings design approach can be immediately implementable. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used, but confusing to many, noti...

  7. Methyldibromo glutaronitrile: clinical experience and exposure-based risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zachariae, Claus; Rastogi, Suresh; Devantier, Charlotte; Menné, Torkil; Johansen, Jeanne Duus

    2003-03-01

    In the year 2000, the level of methyldibromo glutaronitrile (MDGN) allergy in dermatology clinics in Europe exceeded the level of allergies to all other preservatives, with a prevalence of 3.5%. In the present study, cases of primary sensitization and elicitation to MDGN due to cosmetic products were collected over an 8-month period at the Department of Dermatology, Gentofte University Hospital. The aim was to identify the products related to hand eczema, assess exposure to MDGN in these products and relate the findings to results from a newly developed updated risk assessment model for contact allergy. Out of 24 patients with a positive patch test to MDGN, 17 patients with hand eczema were identified. In 11 of these patients, cosmetic products used in relation to the onset of the disease were shown to contain MDGN (65%). In 8 of these 11 cases, primary sensitization was probable, 5 due to hand/body lotions and 3 due to lotions and/or liquid hand soap. Chemical analysis of 12 products showed that lotions contained 149-390 ppm of MDGN, liquid hand soap 144-399 ppm, a rinsing cream 293 ppm and shampoos 78-79 ppm. The shampoo exposure was not of certain relevance to the eczema. Applying the newly developed updated risk assessment model showed that the concentrations of MDGN in lotions of 149-390 ppm exceeded the calculated maximum acceptable exposure level for MDGN, which would be expected to lead to sensitization in consumers using such products, as seen in the current study. The present cases and updated exposure-based risk assessment process add to the evidence and need for re-defining safe-use concentrations of MDGN in cosmetic products.

  8. Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

    1988-08-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented

  9. Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

    1988-08-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented.

  10. Risk based technique for improving technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I. S.; Jae, M. S.; Kim, B. S.; Hwang, S. W.; Kang, K. M.; Park, S. S.; Yu, Y. S.

    2001-03-01

    The objective of this study is to develop the systematic guidance for reviewing the documents associated with the changes of technical specifications. The work done in this fiscal year is the following : surveys in TS requirements, TS improvements and TS regulations in foreign countries as well as Korea, surveys on the state-of-the-art of RITSs and their use in Korea, development of a decision-making framework for both the licensee and the regulation agency, description of risk measures, assessment methodology on STI/AOT, and adverse effects caused by periodic maintenance, which are explained in appendix. The results of this study might contribute to enhancing the quality of the current technical specifications and contribute to preparing the risk informed regulation program using the decision-making framework developed in this study

  11. Increased risk taking in relation to chronic stress in young adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smarandita eCeccato

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Chronic stress is a public health problem that affects a significant part of the population. While the physiological damage it causes is under ongoing scrutiny, its behavioral effects have been overlooked. This is one of the first studies to examine the relation between chronic stress and decision-making, using a standard lottery paradigm. We measured learning-independent risk taking in the gain domain through binary choices between financially incentivized lotteries. We then measured self-reported chronic stress with the Trier Inventory for the Assessment of Chronic Stress (TICS. We additionally collected hair samples in a subsample of volunteers, in order to quantify chronic cortisol exposure. We discovered a significant, positive correlation between self-reported chronic stress and risk taking that is stronger for women than for men. This confirms part of the findings in acute stress research that show a connection between higher stress and increased risk taking. However, unlike the biologically-based results from acute stress research, we did not identify a significant relation between hair cortisol and behavior. In line with previous literature, we found a clear gender difference in risk taking and self-reports: women generally take less risk and report slightly higher stress levels than men. We conclude that perceived chronic stress can impact behavior in risky situations.

  12. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M.

    1995-01-01

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities

  13. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities.

  14. Risk-based zoning for urbanizing floodplains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porse, Erik

    2014-01-01

    Urban floodplain development brings economic benefits and enhanced flood risks. Rapidly growing cities must often balance the economic benefits and increased risks of floodplain settlement. Planning can provide multiple flood mitigation and environmental benefits by combining traditional structural measures such as levees, increasingly popular landscape and design features (green infrastructure), and non-structural measures such as zoning. Flexibility in both structural and non-structural options, including zoning procedures, can reduce flood risks. This paper presents a linear programming formulation to assess cost-effective urban floodplain development decisions that consider benefits and costs of development along with expected flood damages. It uses a probabilistic approach to identify combinations of land-use allocations (residential and commercial development, flood channels, distributed runoff management) and zoning regulations (development zones in channel) to maximize benefits. The model is applied to a floodplain planning analysis for an urbanizing region in the Baja Sur peninsula of Mexico. The analysis demonstrates how (1) economic benefits drive floodplain development, (2) flexible zoning can improve economic returns, and (3) cities can use landscapes, enhanced by technology and design, to manage floods. The framework can incorporate additional green infrastructure benefits, and bridges typical disciplinary gaps for planning and engineering.

  15. A CALCIUM-BASED INVASION RISK ASSESSMENT FOR ZEBRA AND QUAGGA MUSSELS (DREISSENA SPP.)

    Science.gov (United States)

    We used calcium concentration data from over 3000 stream and river sites across the contiguous United States to classify ecoregions relative to their risk for Dreissena species invasion. We defined risk based on calcium concentrations as: very low (< 12 mg L−1), low (12–20 mg L−1...

  16. Risk of vertebral insufficiency fractures in relation to compressive strength predicted by quantitative computed tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biggemann, M.; Hilweg, D.; Seidel, S.; Horst, M.; Brinckmann, P.

    1991-01-01

    Vertebral insufficiency fractures may result from excessive loading of normal and routine loading of osteoporotic spines. Fractures occur when the mechanical load exceeds the vertebral compressive strength, i.e., the maximum load a vertebra can tolerate. Vertebral compressive strength is determined by trabecular bone density and the size of end-plate area. Both parameters can be measured non-invasively by quanti-tative computed tomography (QCT). In 75 patients compressive strength (i.e., trabecular bone density and endplate area) of the vertebra L3 was determined using QCT. In addition, conventional radiographs of the spines were analysed for the prevalence of insufficiency fractures in each case. By relating fracture prevalence to strength, 3 fracture risk groups were found: a high-risk group with strength values of L3 5 kN and a fracture risk near 0 percent. Biomechanical measurements and model calculations indicate that spinal loads of 3 to 4 kN at L3/4 will be common in everyday activities. These data and the results described above suggest that spines with strength values of L3<3 kN are at an extremely high risk of insufficiency fractures in daily life. Advantages of fracture risk assessment by strength determination over risk estimation based on clinically used trabecular bone density measurements are discussed. (author). 18 refs.; 4 figs

  17. A method for determining weights for excess relative risk and excess absolute risk when applied in the calculation of lifetime risk of cancer from radiation exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, Linda [Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Department of Radiation Protection and Health, Oberschleissheim (Germany); University of Manchester, The Faculty of Medical and Human Sciences, Manchester (United Kingdom); Schneider, Uwe [University of Zurich, Vetsuisse Faculty, Zurich (Switzerland); Radiotherapy Hirslanden AG, Aarau (Switzerland)

    2013-03-15

    Radiation-related risks of cancer can be transported from one population to another population at risk, for the purpose of calculating lifetime risks from radiation exposure. Transfer via excess relative risks (ERR) or excess absolute risks (EAR) or a mixture of both (i.e., from the life span study (LSS) of Japanese atomic bomb survivors) has been done in the past based on qualitative weighting. Consequently, the values of the weights applied and the method of application of the weights (i.e., as additive or geometric weighted means) have varied both between reports produced at different times by the same regulatory body and also between reports produced at similar times by different regulatory bodies. Since the gender and age patterns are often markedly different between EAR and ERR models, it is useful to have an evidence-based method for determining the relative goodness of fit of such models to the data. This paper identifies a method, using Akaike model weights, which could aid expert judgment and be applied to help to achieve consistency of approach and quantitative evidence-based results in future health risk assessments. The results of applying this method to recent LSS cancer incidence models are that the relative EAR weighting by cancer solid cancer site, on a scale of 0-1, is zero for breast and colon, 0.02 for all solid, 0.03 for lung, 0.08 for liver, 0.15 for thyroid, 0.18 for bladder and 0.93 for stomach. The EAR weighting for female breast cancer increases from 0 to 0.3, if a generally observed change in the trend between female age-specific breast cancer incidence rates and attained age, associated with menopause, is accounted for in the EAR model. Application of this method to preferred models from a study of multi-model inference from many models fitted to the LSS leukemia mortality data, results in an EAR weighting of 0. From these results it can be seen that lifetime risk transfer is most highly weighted by EAR only for stomach cancer. However

  18. PENGARUH PELAKSANAAN RISK BASED INTERNAL AUDITING TERHADAP PENCEGAHAN FRAUD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rozmita Dewi Yuniarti Rozali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine the effect of implementation of risk based internal auditing on fraud prevention on internal audit Inspection Office Bank BRI Bandung Region. The sample used by 18 internal auditors in Inspection Office of Bank BRI Bandung Region saturated sampling method. Based on calculation of simple regression analysis obtained result that every increase of implementation of risk based internal auditing (X will lead to increase fraud prevention (Y. It shows that there is a positive influence between the implementation of risk based internal auditing on fraud prevention on the internal audit of Inspection Office of Bank BRI Bandung Region.

  19. Reactor siting risk comparisons related to recommendations of NUREG-0625

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barsell, A.W.; Dombek, F.S.; Orvis, D.D.

    1980-11-01

    This document evaluates how implementing the remote siting recommendations for nuclear reactors (NUREG-0625) made by the Siting Policy Task Force of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) can reduce potential public risk. The document analyzes how population density affects site-specific risk for both light water reactors (LWRs) and high-temperature gas-cooled reactors

  20. RELATIVE PROLIFERATION RISKS FOR NUCLEAR FUEL LEASING ARRANGEMENT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CHENG, L.Y.; YUE, M.; BARI, R.A.

    2007-01-01

    The present study demonstrates a probabilistic approach to quantify the proliferation risks of fuel leasing and recycling. A Markov model approach is applied to evaluate the probability of proliferation success by diversion or theft. Proliferation risk is calculated as a product of the probability of success and the corresponding consequences

  1. Elderly Taiwanese's Intrinsic Risk Factors for Fall-related Injuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    In-Fun Li

    2016-09-01

    Conclusion: Elderly Taiwanese inpatients with existing intrinsic conditions of cancer, vertigo, and lower leg weakness were at high risk of falling, resulting in severe injuries. Additional research including controlled trials is necessary to further identify treatable, causal intrinsic risk factors for this elderly group.

  2. What are the real risks of sport-related concussion, and are they modifiable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randolph, Christopher; Kirkwood, Michael W

    2009-07-01

    Over the past two decades, the management of sport-related concussion has been the topic of increased attention in the scientific literature and in the popular media. Despite a proliferation of competing guidelines for concussion management, the widespread use of neuropsychological "baseline" testing designed to monitor postinjury recovery, and several prospective controlled studies of the natural history of concussion, there has been virtually no attempt to quantify the risks associated with sport-related concussion or to determine whether these risks are modifiable via management strategies. Using American football as a model, the short- and long-term risks of sport-related concussion are reviewed. It is concluded that serious short-term consequences of sport-related concussion are extremely rare and unlikely to be significantly modified via management strategies that rely on baseline testing. Other less serious short-term adverse outcomes are also quite rare, transient, and not likely to be altered by specific management guidelines. The long-term consequences of multiple sport-related head trauma remain unclear but are potentially of greater public health concern and should be the focus of increased research. Based on available evidence, there is little rationale for the use of rigid strategies or guidelines in the place of individual clinical decision-making in the management of these injuries.

  3. Gender differences in the relations between work-related physical and psychosocial risk factors and musculoskeletal complaints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hooftman, W.E.; Poppel, M.N.M. van; Beek, A.J. van der; Bongers, P.M.; Mechelen, W. van

    2004-01-01

    Gender differences in the prevalence of musculoskeletal complaints might be explained by differences in the effect of exposure to work-related physical and psychosocial risk factors. A systematic review was conducted to examine gender differences in the relations between these risk factors and

  4. Social Networking Technology Use and Engagement in HIV Related Risk and Protective Behaviors among Homeless Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barman-Adhikari, Anamika; Rice, Eric; Bender, Kimberly; Lengnick-Hall, Rebecca; Yoshioka-Maxwell, Amanda; Rhoades, Harmony

    2016-01-01

    Preliminary studies with homeless youth find surprisingly pervasive social media use and suggest youths’ online interactions may be associated with their HIV-related risk and protective behaviors. As homeless youth are transient and difficult to engage in place-based services, social media may represent a novel venue for intervention. A critical first step in intervention development is gaining greater understanding of how homeless youth use social media especially as it relates to whom they connect to and around what topics. Given the salience of Social Networking Sites in the lives of these otherwise difficult to reach adolescents, and their potential to disseminate prevention interventions, this study assessed associations between online social networking technology use and HIV risk behaviors among homeless youth in Los Angeles, California. Homeless youth ages 13 through 24 (N=1046) were recruited through three drop-in centers and surveyed about their social media use and self-reported HIV-related risk behaviors. Results suggest that social media use is widely prevalent among this population, and the content of these online interactions is associated with whether or not they engage in risk or protective behaviors. Implications for interventions and further research are discussed. PMID:27337044

  5. Risk of placental abruption in relation to migraines and headaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ananth Cande V

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Migraine, a common chronic-intermittent disorder of idiopathic origin characterized by severe debilitating headaches and autonomic nervous system dysfunction, and placental abruption, the premature separation of the placenta, share many common pathophysiological characteristics. Moreover, endothelial dysfunction, platelet activation, hypercoagulation, and inflammation are common to both disorders. We assessed risk of placental abruption in relation to maternal history of migraine before and during pregnancy in Peruvian women. Methods Cases were 375 women with pregnancies complicated by placental abruption, and controls were 368 women without an abruption. During in-person interviews conducted following delivery, women were asked if they had physician-diagnosed migraine, and they were asked questions that allowed headaches and migraine to be classified according to criteria established by the International Headache Society. Logistic regression procedures were used to calculate odds ratios (aOR and 95% confidence intervals (CI adjusted for confounders. Results Overall, a lifetime history of any headaches or migraine was associated with an increased odds of placental abruption (aOR = 1.60; 95% CI 1.16-2.20. A lifetime history of migraine was associated with a 2.14-fold increased odds of placental abruption (aOR = 2.14; 95% CI 1.22-3.75. The odds of placental abruption was 2.11 (95% CI 1.00-4.45 for migraineurs without aura; and 1.59 (95% 0.70-3.62 for migraineurs with aura. A lifetime history of tension-type headache was also increased with placental abruption (aOR = 1.61; 95% CI 1.01-2.57. Conclusions This study adds placental abruption to a growing list of pregnancy complications associated with maternal headache/migraine disorders. Nevertheless, prospective cohort studies are needed to more rigorously evaluate the extent to which migraines and/or its treatments are associated with the occurrence of placental abruption.

  6. Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

    2016-09-30

    Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. School-related risk factors for drunkenness among adolescents: risk factors differ between socio-economic groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Anette; Holstein, Bjørn E; Due, Pernille

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: To examine, separately for boys and girls, whether socio-economic differences in drunkenness exist in adolescence, whether the level of exposure to school-related risk factors differ between socio-economic groups, and whether the relative contribution of school-related risk factors......) was measured by parental occupation. RESULTS: Among girls, exposures to school-related risk factors were more prevalent in lower socio-economic groups. Poor school satisfaction was associated with drunkenness among girls from high SEP, odds ratio (OR) = 2.98 (0.73-12.16). Among boys from high SEP autonomy...

  8. Risk-based prioritization method for the classification of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yu; Lian, Xin-Ying; Jiang, Yong-Hai; Xi, Bei-Dou; He, Xiao-Song

    2017-11-01

    Agricultural regions are a significant source of groundwater pesticide pollution. To ensure that agricultural regions with a significantly high risk of groundwater pesticide contamination are properly managed, a risk-based ranking method related to groundwater pesticide contamination is needed. In the present paper, a risk-based prioritization method for the classification of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions was established. The method encompasses 3 phases, including indicator selection, characterization, and classification. In the risk ranking index system employed here, 17 indicators involving the physicochemical properties, environmental behavior characteristics, pesticide application methods, and inherent vulnerability of groundwater in the agricultural region were selected. The boundary of each indicator was determined using K-means cluster analysis based on a survey of a typical agricultural region and the physical and chemical properties of 300 typical pesticides. The total risk characterization was calculated by multiplying the risk value of each indicator, which could effectively avoid the subjectivity of index weight calculation and identify the main factors associated with the risk. The results indicated that the risk for groundwater pesticide contamination from agriculture in a region could be ranked into 4 classes from low to high risk. This method was applied to an agricultural region in Jiangsu Province, China, and it showed that this region had a relatively high risk for groundwater contamination from pesticides, and that the pesticide application method was the primary factor contributing to the relatively high risk. The risk ranking method was determined to be feasible, valid, and able to provide reference data related to the risk management of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:1052-1059. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  9. Hepatocellular carcinoma risk in relation to atomic-bomb radiation and hepatitis virus infections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujiwara, S.; Cologne, J.B.; Hattori, N.; Suzuki, G.

    2003-01-01

    In Japan, most cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are related to chronic hepatitis C (HCV) or B (HBV) virus infections. Increased liver cancer risk among atomic-bomb survivors has been reported based on mortality studies or tumor registries, but virus infection status-particularly B, which is associated with radiation dose-was not taken account. The objectives of this study were to determine HCC risk in relation to radiation exposure, after adjusting for virus infection in a cohort follow-up study. The study subjects were 6,121 Adult Health Study participants who received tests for hepatitis C and B virus antigen or antibody in 1993-5. A total of 58 HCC cases were newly diagnosed during 1993-2002. As of August 2002, 8% of individuals positive for HCV antibody subsequently developed HCC, compared with less than 1% of individuals who were negative for HCV antibody. Cox regression analysis revealed that the incidence of HCC was 27 times higher among HCV antibody positive individuals and 7 times higher among HBV surface antigen positive individuals. Men had 1.6 times higher risk than women. The risk of HCC increased with age at exam overall but declined with age at exam among the HCV-infected persons. Risk of HCC was 1.3 times higher on average among individuals exposed to radiation, but persons who were younger at the time of bombing had a higher risk of HCC for radiation. There was no evidence of interaction between HCV and radiation exposure. In conclusion, hepatocellular carcinoma risk increased with radiation exposure among persons exposed at young ages, even after adjusting for hepatitis virus infection. There was no evidence of synergy between radiation and HCV infection in this late follow-up. Further study including earlier diagnosed cases is needed to clarify this issue

  10. Relation of temperature and humidity to the risk of recurrent gout attacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neogi, Tuhina; Chen, Clara; Niu, Jingbo; Chaisson, Christine; Hunter, David J; Choi, Hyon; Zhang, Yuqing

    2014-08-15

    Gout attack risk may be affected by weather (e.g., because of volume depletion). We therefore examined the association of temperature and humidity with the risk of recurrent gout attacks by conducting an internet-based case-crossover study in the United States (in 2003-2010) among subjects with a diagnosis of gout who had 1 or more attacks during 1 year of follow-up. We examined the association of temperature and humidity over the prior 48 hours with the risk of gout attacks using a time-stratified approach and conditional logistic regression. Among 632 subjects with gout, there was a significant dose-response relationship between mean temperature in the prior 48 hours and the risk of subsequent gout attack (P = 0.01 for linear trend). Higher temperatures were associated with approximately 40% higher risk of gout attack compared with moderate temperatures. There was a reverse J-shaped relationship between mean relative humidity and the risk of gout attacks (P = 0.03 for quadratic trend). The combination of high temperature and low humidity had the greatest association (odds ratio = 2.04, 95% confidence interval: 1.26, 3.30) compared with moderate temperature and relative humidity. Thus, high ambient temperature and possibly extremes of humidity were associated with an increased risk of gout attack, despite the likelihood that individuals are often in climate-controlled indoor environments. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

  12. Toward risk-based control of nuclear power plant configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Veseley, W.E.; Kim, I.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Futhermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period. (orig.)

  13. Strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability or statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, so that the risk from components being unavailable is minimized, becomes difficult because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. In this paper, we discuss the strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control in nuclear power plants. In developing these strategies and criteria, the primary objective is to obtain more direct risk control but the added benefit is the effective use of plant resources. Implementation of such approaches can result in replacement/modification of parts of Technical Specifications. Specifically, the risk impact or safety impact of a configuration depends upon four factors: (1) The configuration components which are simultaneously down (i.e., inoperable); (2) the backup components which are known to be up (i.e., operable); (3) the duration of time the configuration exists (the outage time); and (4) the frequency at which the configuration occurs. Risk-based configuration control involves managing these factors using risk analyses and risk insights. In this paper, we discuss each of the factors and illustrate how they can be controlled. The information and the tools needed in implementing configuration control are also discussed. The risk-based calculation requirements in achieving the control are also delineated. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  14. Spanish consensus on the risks and detection of antipsychotic drug-related hyperprolactinaemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montejo, Ángel L; Arango, Celso; Bernardo, Miguel; Carrasco, José L; Crespo-Facorro, Benedicto; Cruz, Juan J; Del Pino, Javier; García Escudero, Miguel A; García Rizo, Clemente; González-Pinto, Ana; Hernández, Ana I; Martín Carrasco, Manuel; Mayoral Cleries, Fermin; Mayoral van Son, Jaqueline; Mories, M Teresa; Pachiarotti, Isabella; Ros, Salvador; Vieta, Eduard

    2016-01-01

    Iatrogenic hyperprolactinaemia (IHPRL) has been more frequently related to some antipsychotic drugs that provoke an intense blockade of dopamine D2 receptors. There is a wide variation in clinical practice, and perhaps some more awareness between clinicians is needed. Due to the high frequency of chronic treatment in severe mental patients, careful attention is recommended on the physical risk. IHPRL symptoms could be underestimated without routine examination. An intense scientific literature search was performed in order to draw up a multidisciplinary consensus, including different specialists of psychiatry, endocrinology, oncology and internal medicine, and looking for a consensus about clinical risk and detection of IHPRL following evidence-based medicine criteria levels (EBM I- IV). Short-term symptoms include amenorrhea, galactorrhoea, and sexual dysfunction with decrease of libido and erectile difficulties related to hypogonadism. Medium and long-term symptoms related to oestrogens are observed, including a decrease bone mass density, hypogonadism, early menopause, some types of cancer risk increase (breast and endometrial), cardiovascular risk increase, immune system disorders, lipids, and cognitive dysfunction. Prolactin level, gonadal hormones and vitamin D should be checked in all patients receiving antipsychotics at baseline although early symptoms (amenorrhea-galactorrhoea) may not be observed due to the risk of underestimating other delayed symptoms that may appear in the medium term. Routine examination of sexual dysfunction is recommended due to possible poor patient tolerance and low compliance. Special care is required in children and adolescents, as well as patients with PRL levels >50ng/ml (moderate hyperprolactinaemia). A possible prolactinoma should be investigated in patients with PRL levels >150ng/ml, with special attention to patients with breast/endometrial cancer history. Densitometry should be prescribed for males >50 years old

  15. Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deriot, S.

    1992-10-01

    This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

  16. E-cigarette use is differentially related to smoking onset among lower risk adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Thomas A; Sargent, James D; Gibbons, Frederick X; Pagano, Ian; Schweitzer, Rebecca

    2016-09-01

    E-cigarette use has been linked to onset of cigarette smoking among adolescents, but some commentators have suggested that this simply reflects high-risk adolescents being more likely to use e-cigarettes and to smoke. We tested whether the effect of e-cigarette use for smoking onset differs for youth who are lower versus higher on propensity to smoke. School-based survey with a longitudinal sample of 1136 students (9th-11th graders, mean age 14.7 years) in Hawaii, initially surveyed in 2013 (T1) and followed up 1 year later (T2). We assessed e-cigarette use, propensity to smoke based on 3 psychosocial factors known to predict smoking (rebelliousness, parental support and willingness to smoke), and cigarette smoking status. Analyses based on T1 never-smokers tested the relation of T1 e-cigarette use to T2 smoking status for participants lower versus higher on T1 propensity to smoke. The relation between T1 e-cigarette use and T2 smoking onset was stronger among participants with lower levels of rebelliousness and willingness and higher levels of parental support. A multiple logistic regression analysis with T2 smoking as the criterion tested the cross-product of T1 e-cigarette use and T1 smoking propensity score; the interaction (OR=0.88, p=0.01) indicated a significantly larger effect for smoking onset among lower risk youth. The results indicate e-cigarette use is a risk factor for smoking onset, not just a marker of high risk for smoking. This study provides evidence that e-cigarettes are recruiting lower risk adolescents to smoking, which has public health implications. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  17. The relation between the board of directors, performance, work and risk in the brazilian stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Fernando Martins de Paiva

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Among the Corporate Governance mechanisms, the Board of Directors is mentioned in academic research as fundamental in company performance and values in different countries. The important role in defense of the stockholders’ rights, preventing the managers from using the company in defense of their own interests, makes this a relevant mechanism in empirical research, even more when its relations with financial indicators is analyzed. In this study, the main objective was to analyze the relation between this mechanism and the value, performance and risk of Brazilian companies in 2012 and 2013, using panel data regression. Therefore, a Board of Directors index was created, based on binary questions, adapted from Silva, Santos and Almeida (2011, to be used as an independent variable in econometric models. A positive statistical relation was found between the proposed inedex and the variable Volatility, against expectations. The research also indicated relevant relations between the dependent and control variables. Among other results, it was concluded that: a positive relation exists between the company size and its performance; a positive relation exists between the growth of sales and the company value; a position relation between the risk variables beta and volatility; and belonging to the distinguished corporate governance levels on the stock exchange reduces the volatility of company stocks.

  18. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses in aging risk-based prioritizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, M.; Uryas'ev, S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1993-01-01

    Aging risk evaluations of nuclear power plants using Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs) involve assessments of the impact of aging structures, systems, and components (SSCs) on plant core damage frequency (CDF). These assessments can be used to prioritize the contributors to aging risk reflecting the relative risk potential of the SSCs. Aging prioritizations are important for identifying the SSCs contributing most to plant risk and can provide a systematic basis on which aging risk control and management strategies for a plant can be developed. However, these prioritizations are subject to variabilities arising from uncertainties in data, and/or from various modeling assumptions. The objective of this paper is to present an evaluation of the sensitivity of aging prioritizations of active components to uncertainties in aging risk quantifications. Approaches for robust prioritization of SSCs also are presented which are less susceptible to the uncertainties

  19. A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

    2014-11-01

    We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in

  20. Weather based risks and insurances for crop production in Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne

    2014-05-01

    Extreme weather events such as late frosts, droughts, heat waves and rain storms can have devastating effects on cropping systems. Damages due to extreme events are strongly dependent on crop type, crop stage, soil type and soil conditions. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by limited aid received for agricultural damage, an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers and projected intensification of weather extremes with climate change. According to both the agriculture and finance sectors, a risk assessment of extreme weather events and their impact on cropping systems is needed. The impact of extreme weather events particularly during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar requires a modelling approach to capture the mixture of non-linear interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event. The risk of soil moisture deficit increases towards harvesting, such that drought stress occurs in spring and summer. Conversely, waterlogging occurs mostly during early spring and autumn. Risks of temperature stress appear during winter and spring for chilling and during summer for heat. Since crop development is driven by thermal time and photoperiod, the regional crop model REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) enabled to examine the likely frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and waterlogging in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages. The risk profiles were subsequently confronted with yields, yield losses and insurance claims for different crops. Physically based crop models such as REGCROP assist in understanding the links between different factors causing crop damage as demonstrated for cropping systems in Belgium. Extreme weather events have already precipitated contraction of insurance coverage in some markets (e.g. hail insurance), and the process can be expected to continue if the losses or damages from such events increase in the future. Climate

  1. Risk of radiation-induced subcutaneous fibrosis in relation to single nucleotide polymorphisms in TGFB1, SOD2, XRCC1, XRCC3, APEX and ATM - a study based on DNA from formalin fixed paraffin embedded tissue samples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreassen, Christian Nicolaj; Alsner, Jan; Overgaard, Marie

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: In two previously published studies, associations with risk of radiation-induced subcutaneous fibrosis were found for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in TGFB1 (transforming growth factor beta 1 gene), XRCC1 (X-ray repair cross-complementing 1 gene), XRCC3 (X-ray repair cross...... the influence of genetic variation upon normal tissue radiosensitivity...

  2. [Risk assessment of work-related stress: the case of a public administration].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loi, Michela; Bellò, Benedetta; Mattana, Veronica

    2015-01-01

    The paper describes a case study of work related stress assessment in a public administration, based on an objective methodology (Romano, 2009). The Ispes1 forms (2010) have been used to perform the assessment. They have been filled during some focus group in which 45 workers have been involved, divided into 7 homogeneous groups relying on their department, back-office vs front-office typology of work and the office collocation. According to the Grounded Theory perspective, through the content analysis three further risk factors arose, comparing to the Ispesl forms, such as: (a) the quality of communication, (b) the relationship among and with leaders and colleagues, (c) the presence of discriminatory behaviours. Hence, on the basis of the results, mostly for a deeper analysis of work related stress assessment in a public administration, we suggest to consider these further risk factors.

  3. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

    2017-06-01

    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  4. The risk of cataract in relation to metal arc welding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slagor, Rebekka Michaelsen; Dornonville de la Cour, Morten; Bonde, Jens Peter

    2016-01-01

    .95–1.21] and the adjusted HR was 1.08 (95% CI 0.95–1.22). Age and diabetes were as expected strong risk factors. Conclusion: We found no increased risk of developing cataract among Danish metal welders who worked with arc welding from 1950–1985. This may be attributed to the effectiveness of personal safety equipment....... increases the risk of cataract. Method: We compared the risk of being diagnosed with cataract from 1987–2012 in a historic cohort of 4288 male metal arc welders against a reference group comprised of Danish skilled and unskilled male workers with similar age distribution. For the welders’ cohort...... adjusted for baseline data regarding age, diabetes, and social group. Results: There were 266 welders and 29 007 referents with a diagnosis and/or operation for cataract. The unadjusted HR for cataract comparing ever-welders with referents was 1.07 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0...

  5. Relation between Childhood Obesity and Adult Cardiovascular Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren M. Allcock

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The incidence of overweight and obesity is rising at an alarming pace in the pediatric population, just as in the adult population. The adult comorbidities associated with this risk factor are well-recognized and are being further elucidated continually. Additionally, we are gradually developing a better understanding of the risks of overweight and obesity among children while they are still young. However, there is now a growing body of evidence showing that childhood obesity not only leads all too frequently to adult obesity, but is in itself a risk factor for cardiometabolic syndrome and resultant cardiovascular risk in adulthood. If current trends continue, the problem of pediatric overweight and obesity will become of unmanageable proportions once these individuals reach adulthood. Future research efforts toward understanding this complex problem will need to focus on those overweight and obese children who later went on to change their metabolic course and become normal-weight adults.

  6. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

    2012-09-01

    Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk Based Maintenance in Electricity Network Organisations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mehairjan, R.P.Y.

    2016-01-01

    Presently, maintenance management of assets in infrastructure utilities such as electricity, gas and water are widely undergoing changes towards new working environments. These are mainly driven against the background of stringent regulatory regimes, an ageing asset base, increased customer demands

  8. Research activities related to accelerator-based transmutation at PSI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wydler, P.

    1993-01-01

    Transmutation of actinides and fission products using reactors and other types of nuclear systems may play a role in future waste management schemes. Possible advantages of separation and transmutation are: volume reductions, the re-use of materials, the avoidance of a cumulative risk, and limiting the duration of the risk. With its experience in reactor physics, accelerator-based physics, and the development of the SINQ spallation neutron source, PSI is in a good position to perform basic theoretical and experimental studies relating to the accelerator-based transmutation of actinides. Theoretical studies at PSI have been concentrated, so far, on systems in which protons are used directly to transmute actinides. With such systems and appropriate recycling schemes, the studies showed that considerable reduction factors for long-term toxicity can be obtained. With the aim of solving some specific data and method problems related to these types of systems, a programme of differential and integral measurements at the PSI ring accelerator has been initiated. In a first phase of this programme, thin samples of actinides will be irradiated with 590 MeV protons, using an existing irradiation facility. The generated spallation and fission products will be analysed using different experimental techniques, and the results will be compared with theoretical predictions based on high-energy nucleon-meson transport calculations. The principal motivation for these experiments is to resolve discrepancies observed between calculations based on different high-energy fission models. In a second phase of the programme, it is proposed to study the neutronic behaviour of multiplying target-blanket assemblies with the help of zero-power experiments set up at a separate, dedicated beam line of the accelerator. (author) 3 figs., 2 tabs., 8 refs

  9. The neural bases underlying social risk perception in purchase decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoyama, Ryoichi; Nozawa, Takayuki; Sugiura, Motoaki; Yomogida, Yukihito; Takeuchi, Hikaru; Akimoto, Yoritaka; Shibuya, Satoru; Kawashima, Ryuta

    2014-05-01

    Social considerations significantly influence daily purchase decisions, and the perception of social risk (i.e., the anticipated disapproval of others) is crucial in dissuading consumers from making purchases. However, the neural basis for consumers' perception of social risk remains undiscovered, and this novel study clarifies the relevant neural processes. A total of 26 volunteers were scanned while they evaluated purchase intention of products (purchase intention task) and their anticipation of others' disapproval for possessing a product (social risk task), using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The fMRI data from the purchase intention task was used to identify the brain region associated with perception of social risk during purchase decision making by using subjective social risk ratings for a parametric modulation analysis. Furthermore, we aimed to explore if there was a difference between participants' purchase decisions and their explicit evaluations of social risk, with reference to the neural activity associated with social risk perception. For this, subjective social risk ratings were used for a parametric modulation analysis on fMRI data from the social risk task. Analysis of the purchase intention task revealed a significant positive correlation between ratings of social risk and activity in the anterior insula, an area of the brain that is known as part of the emotion-related network. Analysis of the social risk task revealed a significant positive correlation between ratings of social risk and activity in the temporal parietal junction and the medial prefrontal cortex, which are known as theory-of-mind regions. Our results suggest that the anterior insula processes consumers' social risk implicitly to prompt consumers not to buy socially unacceptable products, whereas ToM-related regions process such risk explicitly in considering the anticipated disapproval of others. These findings may prove helpful in understanding the mental

  10. Generative Inferences Based on Learned Relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dawn; Lu, Hongjing; Holyoak, Keith J.

    2017-01-01

    A key property of relational representations is their "generativity": From partial descriptions of relations between entities, additional inferences can be drawn about other entities. A major theoretical challenge is to demonstrate how the capacity to make generative inferences could arise as a result of learning relations from…

  11. Risk of ovarian cancer in women with first-degree relatives with cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soegaard, Marie; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Jensen, Allan

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of ovarian cancer in women with first-degree relatives with cancer at one of the four most frequent hereditary sites based on validated cancer diagnoses and to examine the association according to age at diagnosis of ovarian cancer and histology. DESIGN: Case......-control study. SETTING AND POPULATION: First-degree relatives of 554 women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and 1,564 controls were included. METHODS: Analyses were performed using multiple logistic regression models. RESULTS: Ovarian cancer in a first-degree relative was significantly associated...... with increased risk of ovarian cancer (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.4-4.1 (mother or sister)). Ovarian cancer in a first-degree relative appeared to be a stronger risk factor for early-onset (cancer than late-onset (OR, 5.3; 95% CI, 2.0-14.1 vs. OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.0-3.4). The positive association...

  12. Application of risk-based inspection methods for cryogenic equipment

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Risk-based Inspection (RBI) is widely applied across the world as part of Pressure Equipment Integrity Management, especially in the oil and gas industry, to generally reduce costs compared with time-based approaches and assist in assigning resources to the most critical equipment. One of the challenges in RBI is to apply it for low temperature and cryogenic applications, as there are usually no degradation mechanisms by which to determine a suitable probability of failure in the overall risk assessment. However, the assumptions used for other degradation mechanisms can be adopted to determine, qualitatively and semi-quantitatively, a consequence of failure within the risk assessment. This can assist in providing a consistent basis for the assumptions used in ensuring adequate process safety barriers and determining suitable sizing of relief devices. This presentation will discuss risk-based inspection in the context of cryogenic safety, as well as present some of the considerations for the risk assessme...

  13. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

  14. Prevalence and risk factors related to preterm birth in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria do Carmo Leal

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The rate of preterm birth has been increasing worldwide, including in Brazil. This constitutes a significant public health challenge because of the higher levels of morbidity and mortality and long-term health effects associated with preterm birth. This study describes and quantifies factors affecting spontaneous and provider-initiated preterm birth in Brazil. Methods Data are from the 2011–2012 “Birth in Brazil” study, which used a national population-based sample of 23,940 women. We analyzed the variables following a three-level hierarchical methodology. For each level, we performed non-conditional multiple logistic regression for both spontaneous and provider-initiated preterm birth. Results The rate of preterm birth was 11.5 %, (95 % confidence 10.3 % to 12.9 % 60.7 % spontaneous - with spontaneous onset of labor or premature preterm rupture of membranes - and 39.3 % provider-initiated, with more than 90 % of the last group being pre-labor cesarean deliveries. Socio-demographic factors associated with spontaneous preterm birth were adolescent pregnancy, low total years of schooling, and inadequate prenatal care. Other risk factors were previous preterm birth (OR 3.74; 95 % CI 2.92–4.79, multiple pregnancy (OR 16.42; 95 % CI 10.56–25.53, abruptio placentae (OR 2.38; 95 % CI 1.27–4.47 and infections (OR 4.89; 95 % CI 1.72–13.88. In contrast, provider-initiated preterm birth was associated with private childbirth healthcare (OR 1.47; 95 % CI 1.09–1.97, advanced-age pregnancy (OR 1.27; 95 % CI 1.01–1.59, two or more prior cesarean deliveries (OR 1.64; 95 % CI 1.19–2.26, multiple pregnancy (OR 20.29; 95 % CI 12.58–32.72 and any maternal or fetal pathology (OR 6.84; 95 % CI 5.56–8.42. Conclusion The high proportion of provider-initiated preterm birth and its association with prior cesarean deliveries and all of the studied maternal/fetal pathologies suggest that a reduction of this type of

  15. Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Velthuis, A.G.J.

    2014-01-01

    Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process

  16. Risk-Based Educational Accountability in Dutch Primary Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermans, A. C.; de Wolf, I. F.; Bosker, R. J.; Doolaard, S.

    2015-01-01

    A recent development in educational accountability is a risk-based approach, in which intensity and frequency of school inspections vary across schools to make educational accountability more efficient and effective by enabling inspectorates to focus on organizations at risk. Characteristics relevant in predicting which schools are "at risk…

  17. Event-based historical value-at-risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hogenboom, F.P.; Winter, Michael; Hogenboom, A.C.; Jansen, Milan; Frasincar, F.; Kaymak, U.

    2012-01-01

    Value-at-Risk (VaR) is an important tool to assess portfolio risk. When calculating VaR based on historical stock return data, we hypothesize that this historical data is sensitive to outliers caused by news events in the sampled period. In this paper, we research whether the VaR accuracy can be

  18. Risk based decision tool for space exploration missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila; Cornford, Steve; Moran, Terrence

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an approach and corresponding tool to assess and analyze the risks involved in a mission during the pre-phase A design process. This approach is based on creating a risk template for each subsystem expert involved in the mission design process and defining appropriate interactions between the templates.

  19. Health and environmental risk-related impacts of actinide burning on high-level waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forsberg, C.W.

    1992-05-01

    The potential health and environmental risk-related impacts of actinide burning for high-level waste disposal were evaluated. Actinide burning, also called waste partitioning-transmutation, is an advanced method for radioactive waste management based on the idea of destroying the most toxic components in the waste. It consists of two steps: (1) selective removal of the most toxic radionuclides from high-level/spent fuel waste and (2) conversion of those radionuclides into less toxic radioactive materials and/or stable elements. Risk, as used in this report, is defined as the probability of a failure times its consequence. Actinide burning has two potential health and environmental impacts on waste management. Risks and the magnitude of high-consequence repository failure scenarios are decreased by inventory reduction of the long-term radioactivity in the repository. (What does not exist cannot create risk or uncertainty.) Risk may also be reduced by the changes in the waste characteristics, resulting from selection of waste forms after processing, that are superior to spent fuel and which lower the potential of transport of radionuclides from waste form to accessible environment. There are no negative health or environmental impacts to the repository from actinide burning; however, there may be such impacts elsewhere in the fuel cycle

  20. Acceptability of mobile health interventions to reduce inactivity-related health risk in central Pennsylvania adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Hsiang Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Insufficient physical activity and excessive sedentary behavior elevate health risk. Mobile applications (apps provide one mode for delivering interventions to modify these behaviors and reduce health risk. The purpose of this study was to characterize the need for and acceptability of health behavior interventions among rural adults and evaluate the interest in and the value of app-based interventions in this population. Central Pennsylvania adults with smartphones (N = 258 completed a brief web survey in October–November 2012. Most adults report one or both inactivity-related behavioral risk factors, would use a free app to modify those risk behaviors, and would pay a small amount for that app. Low-cost, efficacious apps to increase physical activity or reduce sedentary behavior should be promoted in public health practice. User experience should be at the forefront of this process to increase value and minimize burden in the service of long-term engagement, behavior change, and health risk reduction.

  1. A 3-Factor Model Relating Communication to Risk Mitigation of Extended Information System Failover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Podaras

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyse the relation between timely and effective communication and risk mitigation of late recovery after an unexpected information system outage in enterprises. An unforeseen information system failure in modern enterprise units, may result to significant operational and financial damage. In such a critical incident, effective communication between the team leaders and the recovery team involved, can minimize or even eliminate this negative impact. An extended information system outage can be perceived as a time deviation from the Maximum Accepted Outage (ΜΑΟ timeframe, proposed by the business continuity management, according to the value of which dependent business functions may be interrupted without any serious effects to the company. The paper examines the relation between 3 basic factors and the efficient communication between team members. The factors are: timely information distribution, staff availability and network availability. Through the current paper, the author proposes a risk analysis model, based on the Composite Risk Index theory of Risk Management, which can significantly diminish the possibility of an extended information system outage, as well as calculate the extended time required to recover a system when the aforementioned factors emerge in their worst form. The precise calculation of recovery time can be achieved via the execution of business continuity tests which include scenarios, according to which an unexpected system outage coexists with delayed information distribution as well as low staff and network availability.

  2. Incidence of and breed-related risk factors for gastric dilatation-volvulus in dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glickman, L T; Glickman, N W; Schellenberg, D B; Raghavan, M; Lee, T L

    2000-01-01

    To compare incidence of and breed-related risk factors for gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) among 11 dog breeds (Akita, Bloodhound, Collie, Great Dane, Irish Setter, Irish Wolfhound, Newfoundland, Rottweiler, Saint Bernard, Standard Poodle, and Weimaraner). Prospective cohort study. 1,914 dogs. Owners of dogs that did not have a history of GDV were recruited at dog shows, and the dog's length and height and depth and width of the thorax and abdomen were measured. Information concerning the dogs' medical history, genetic background, personality, and diet was obtained from owners, and owners were contacted by mail and telephone at approximately 1-year intervals to determine whether dogs had developed GDV or died. Incidence of GDV based on the number of dog-years at risk was calculated for each breed, and breed-related risk factors were identified. Incidence of GDV for the 7 large (23 to 45 kg [50 to 99 lb]) and 4 giant (> 45 kg [> 99 lb]) breeds was 23 and 26 cases/1,000 dog-years at risk, respectively. Of the 105 dogs that developed GDV, 30 (28.6%) died. Incidence of GDV increased with increasing age. Cumulative incidence of GDV was 5.7% for all breeds. The only breed-specific characteristic significantly associated with a decreased incidence of GDV was an owner-perceived personality trait of happiness.

  3. Matroidal Structure of Generalized Rough Sets Based on Tolerance Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Li

    2014-01-01

    of the generalized rough set based on the tolerance relation. The matroid can also induce a new relation. We investigate the connection between the original tolerance relation and the induced relation.

  4. A prospective study of gait related risk factors for exercise-related lower leg pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, T M; De Clercq, D; Delbaere, K; Vanderstraeten, G; De Cock, A; Witvrouw, E

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine prospectively gait related risk factors for exercise-related lower leg pain (ERLLP) in 400 physical education students. Static lower leg alignment was determined, and 3D gait kinematics combined with plantar pressure profiles were collected. After this evaluation, all sports injuries were registered by the same sports physician during the duration of the study. Forty six subjects developed ERLLP and 29 of them developed bilateral symptoms thus giving 75 symptomatic lower legs. Bilateral lower legs of 167 subjects who developed no injuries in the lower extremities served as controls. Cox regression analysis revealed that subjects who developed ERLLP had an altered running pattern before the injury compared to the controls and included (1) a significantly more central heel-strike, (2) a significantly increased pronation, accompanied with more pressure underneath the medial side of the foot, and (3) a significantly more lateral roll-off. These findings suggest that altered biomechanics play a role in the genesis of ERLLP and thus should be considered in prevention and rehabilitation.

  5. Risk Based Corrosion Studies at SRS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, E.

    2010-01-01

    TYPE I and II (ASTM 285-B) - Experienced stress corrosion cracking (SCC), 2 have been closed; 22 scheduled for closure by 2017, and No active leak sites today. TYPE III (ASTM A516-70 and A537 Class I) - Post-fabrication relief of weld residual stresses, Improved resistance to SCC and brittle fracture, No leakage history, and Receives new waste. The objectives are to utilize statistical methods to reduce conservatism in current chemistry control program; and express nitrite inhibitor limits in terms of pitting risk on waste tank steel. Conclusions are: (1) A statistically designed experimental study has been undertaken to improve the effectiveness of the minimum nitrite concentrations to inhibit pitting corrosion; (2) Mixture/amount model supports that pitting depends on the ratio of aggressive to inhibitive anions, as well as the concentration of each species; (3) Secondary aggressive species, Cl - and SO 4 2- , significantly effect the corrosion response; and (4) Results support the reduction of the chemistry control nitrite inhibitor concentrations in the regime of 0.8-1.0 M nitrate.

  6. Evaluation of air pollution-related risks for Austrian mountain forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smidt, Stefan; Herman, Friedl

    2004-01-01

    The present paper describes air pollution status and evaluation of risks related to effects of phytotoxic pollutants in the Austrian mountain forests. The results are based on Austrian networks (Forest Inventory, Forest Damage Monitoring System, Austrian Bioindicator Grid), the Austrian sample plots of the European networks of the UN-ECE (ICP Forests, Level I and Level II) and interdisciplinary research approaches. Based on the monitoring data and on modelling and mapping of Critical Thresholds, the evaluation of risk factors was possible. Cause-effect relationships between air pollution and tree responses were shown by tree-physiological measurements. Sulfur impact, proton and lead input, concentrations of nitrogen oxides, nitrogen input and ozone were evaluated. The risk was demonstrated at a regional and large-scale national level. Especially the increasing O 3 level and the accumulation of Pb with altitude present most serious risk for mountain forests. - Despite strong reduction of emissions in Europe, pollutants are still a potential stress factor, especially for sensitive mountain forest ecosystems in Austria

  7. Risk Based Milk Pricing Model at Dairy Farmers Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Septiani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The milk price from a cooperative institution to farmer does not fully cover the production cost. Though, dairy farmers encounter various risks and uncertainties in conducting their business. The highest risk in milk supply lies in the activities at the farm. This study was designed to formulate a model for calculating milk price at farmer’s level based on risk. Risks that occur on farms include the risk of cow breeding, sanitation, health care, cattle feed management, milking and milk sales. This research used the location of the farm in West Java region. There were five main stages in the preparation of this model, (1 identification and analysis of influential factors, (2 development of a conceptual model, (3 structural analysis and the amount of production costs, (4 model calculation of production cost with risk factors, and (5 risk based milk pricing model. This research built a relationship between risks on smallholder dairy farms with the production costs to be incurred by the farmers. It was also obtained the formulation of risk adjustment factor calculation for the variable costs of production in dairy cattle farm. The difference in production costs with risk and the total production cost without risk was about 8% to 10%. It could be concluded that the basic price of milk proposed based on the research was around IDR 4,250-IDR 4,350/L for 3 to 4 cows ownership. Increasing farmer income was expected to be obtained by entering the value of this risk in the calculation of production costs. 

  8. Risks of multiple sclerosis in relatives of patients in Flanders, Belgium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carton, H; Vlietinck, R; Debruyne, J; DeKeyser, J; DHooghe, MB; Loos, R; Medaer, R; Truyen, L; Yee, IML; Sadovnick, AD

    Objectives - To calculate age adjusted risks for multiple sclerosis in relatives of Flemish patients with multiple sclerosis. Methods - Lifetime risks were calculated using the maximum likelihood approach. Results - Vital information was obtained on 674 probands with multiple sclerosis in Flanders

  9. Oil spill risk assessment : relative impact indices by oil type and location

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French-McCay, D.; Beegle-Krause, C.J.; Rowe, J.; Rodriguez, W.; Schmidt Etkin, D.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of the study was to inform policies related to resource allocation for oil spill prevention, preparedness and response activities in Washington State. Oil spill reports and impact modelling studies were evaluated in order to determine major risk consequence factors including spill volume, location, timing, toxicity, persistence, and expected frequency of spills by sector. The Washington Compensation Schedule pre-assessment screening and oil spill compensation schedule regulations (WCS) designed to consider the sensitivity of oiled areas as well as the relative density and seasonal distributions of sensitive biota. Spill incidents were assigned per-gallon impact scores based on geographic location, oil type, and season. The WCS qualitative rating system was used to assess the potential impacts of spills in different geographic systems. Geographic zones were based on geography, circulation of currents, climate, and the WCS sub-regions in estuarine and marine areas on the Pacific coast of Washington State. Oil types included crude, heavy, and light oils; gasoline; jet fuel; and non-petroleum oils. A habitat index was calculated to represent existing stream conditions. It was concluded that the relative impact risk model is a reliable method for characterizing impacts based on spill volume, oil effects, and vulnerability rankings. 25 refs., 20 tabs., 3 figs

  10. Assessment of Home-Based Nigerian Engineers on Risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of Home-Based Nigerian Engineers on Risk Management Approach ... Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management ... The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Correlation methods were adopted for statistical ...

  11. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.

    2010-01-01

    Today, companies are required to be in control of the security of their IT assets. This is especially challenging in the presence of limited budgets and conflicting requirements. Here, we present Risk-Based Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (RiskREP), a method for managing IT security

  12. Prediction of Banking Systemic Risk Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouwei Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Banking systemic risk is a complex nonlinear phenomenon and has shed light on the importance of safeguarding financial stability by recent financial crisis. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics of banking systemic risk, in this paper we apply support vector machine (SVM to the prediction of banking systemic risk in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. We conduct a case study of an SVM-based prediction model for Chinese banking systemic risk and find the experiment results showing that support vector machine is an efficient method in such case.

  13. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. A fuzzy expert system based on relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, L.O.; Kandel, A.

    1986-01-01

    The Fuzzy Expert System (FESS) is an expert system which makes use of the theory of fuzzy relations to perform inference. Relations are very general and can be used for any application, which only requires different types of relations be implemented and used. The incorporation of fuzzy reasoning techniques enables the expert system to deal with imprecision in a well-founded manner. The knowledge is represented in relational frames. FESS may operate in either a forward chaining or backward chaining manner. It uses primarily implication and factual relations. A unique methodology for combination of evidence has been developed. It makes uses of a blackboard for communication between the various knowledge sources which may operate in parallel. The expert system has been designed in such a manner that it may be used for diverse applications

  15. Risk based regulation: a convenient concept for legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, J.H.

    1998-01-01

    Legislation and regulation concerning risk activities are traditionally based on deterministic safety measures. This may lead to inefficient results: sometimes the law requires safety measures which are - from an economic viewpoint - not justified because of their poor cost-effectiveness; sometimes it does not require safety measures although they would be very efficient. The risk based regulation approach wants to make the law more efficient and to get more safety at less costs. Legislation and regulation should be based on terms of risk rather than on deterministic rules. Risk should be expressed in quantitative terms and risk regulation should be based on the cost-effectiveness of safety measures. Thus a most efficient (in the sense of the economic analysis of the law) strategy for safety and environmental law could be established. The approach is economically reasonable and theoretically convincing. Its practical implementation however raises a lot of technical and legal questions. The project 'Risk Based Regulation' (1996-1999), sponsored by the Swiss National Fund for Scientific Research, intends to evaluate the practical feasibility of the approach from a technical and a legal view. It contains a general part which describes the risk based regulation approach and its legal and technical questions, case studies which try to practically implement the risk based regulation approach; the case studies are: storage and management of explosives in the army, storage and management of explosives for non-military purposes, safety at work, accident prevention in the non-professional field (mainly road accidents), fire protection, transportation of dangerous goods, waste disposal: traditional waste, waste disposal: radioactive waste, nuclear energy (reactor safety), a synthesis with recommendations for the future legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks. The paper presents the project and its preliminary results. (author)

  16. A Simple Model to Rank Shellfish Farming Areas Based on the Risk of Disease Introduction and Spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thrush, M A; Pearce, F M; Gubbins, M J; Oidtmann, B C; Peeler, E J

    2017-08-01

    The European Union Council Directive 2006/88/EC requires that risk-based surveillance (RBS) for listed aquatic animal diseases is applied to all aquaculture production businesses. The principle behind this is the efficient use of resources directed towards high-risk farm categories, animal types and geographic areas. To achieve this requirement, fish and shellfish farms must be ranked according to their risk of disease introduction and spread. We present a method to risk rank shellfish farming areas based on the risk of disease introduction and spread and demonstrate how the approach was applied in 45 shellfish farming areas in England and Wales. Ten parameters were used to inform the risk model, which were grouped into four risk themes based on related pathways for transmission of pathogens: (i) live animal movement, (ii) transmission via water, (iii) short distance mechanical spread (birds) and (iv) long distance mechanical spread (vessels). Weights (informed by expert knowledge) were applied both to individual parameters and to risk themes for introduction and spread to reflect their relative importance. A spreadsheet model was developed to determine quantitative scores for the risk of pathogen introduction and risk of pathogen spread for each shellfish farming area. These scores were used to independently rank areas for risk of introduction and for risk of spread. Thresholds were set to establish risk categories (low, medium and high) for introduction and spread based on risk scores. Risk categories for introduction and spread for each area were combined to provide overall risk categories to inform a risk-based surveillance programme directed at the area level. Applying the combined risk category designation framework for risk of introduction and spread suggested by European Commission guidance for risk-based surveillance, 4, 10 and 31 areas were classified as high, medium and low risk, respectively. © 2016 Crown copyright.

  17. The Two C”s of the Risk-Based Approach to Goal based Standards: Challenges and Caveats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontovas, Christos A.; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Zachariadis, Panos

    2007-01-01

    industry has begun to move from a reactive to a proactive approach to safety through “Formal Safety Assessment” (FSA) and “Goal Based Standards” (GBS). FSA was introduced by the IMO as “a rational and systematic process for accessing the risk related to maritime safety and the protection of the marine...... environment and for evaluating the costs and benefits of IMO’s options for reducing these risks”. The recent GBS approach aims to be another proactive instrument, and there has been recent discussion in the IMO on the possible links between FSA and GBS. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used......, but confusing to many, notions such as Risk Based Rulemaking vs. Risk Based Design, and IMO's GBS Traditional Approach vs. Safety Level Approach, and the implications of their use, or misuse, to future ship rulemaking, design and safety. The paper elaborates on some identified weaknesses of the risk based...

  18. Understanding the NSAID related risk of vascular events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vonkeman, Harald Erwin; Brouwers, Jacobus R.B.J.; van de Laar, Mart A F J

    2006-01-01

    Concern is growing about an increased risk of thrombotic events (including myocardial infarction and stroke) during the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), in particular the so called selective cyclo-oxygenase-2 (COX 2) inhibitors. Although clinical trials give conflicting results

  19. Is parental age related to the risk of Alzheimer's disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.M. van Duijn (Cornelia); W. Schulte (Wim); T.A. Tanja (Teun); R. Haaxma (Rob); A.J. Lameris; R.J. Saan; A. Hofman (Albert)

    1990-01-01

    textabstractAdvanced maternal and paternal age were investigated as putative risk factors for AD in 198 clinically diagnosed Alzheimer patients and in 198 randomly selected healthy controls. No significant differences in average age of fathers and of mothers at birth of the subject were observed.

  20. Advanced prostate cancer risk in relation to toenail selenium levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geybels, M.S.; Verhage, B.A.J.; Schooten, F.J. van; Goldbohm, A.; Brandt, P.A. van den

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Selenium may prevent advanced prostate cancer (PCa), but most studies on this topic were conducted in populations with moderate to high selenium status. We investigated the association of toenail selenium, reflecting long-term selenium exposure, and advanced PCa risk in a population from

  1. Cancer risk in relation to serum copper levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, R J; Weiss, N S; Daling, J R; Rettmer, R L; Warnick, G R

    1989-08-01

    A nested, matched case-control study was conducted to assess the relationship between serum levels of copper and the subsequent risk of cancer. One hundred thirty-three cases of cancer were identified during 1974-1984 among 5000 members of a northwest Washington State employee cohort from whom serum specimens had been previously obtained and stored. Two hundred forty-one controls were selected at random from the cohort and were matched to the cases on the basis of age, sex, race, and date of blood draw. Serum copper levels were measured by atomic absorption spectrometry. Risk of a subsequent diagnosis of cancer was positively associated with serum copper levels, but only among those cases diagnosed within 4 years of the time the serum specimens were collected. Among cases diagnosed more than 4 years after specimen collection, there was no consistent association between serum copper levels and risk. Adjustment for age, sex, race, occupational status, cigarette smoking, family history of cancer, alcohol consumption, and, among females, use of exogenous hormones had no appreciable effect on these relationships. The findings suggest that the presence of cancer may increase serum copper levels several years prior to its diagnosis. They are less supportive of the hypothesis that serum copper levels affect cancer risk.

  2. Radon - The management of the risk related to radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    This leaflet briefly explains what radon is, where it comes from, and what it becomes. It indicates and briefly comments its concentrations in French departments, describes how radon can affect our health (lung cancer), describes how the risk can be reduced in buildings, and indicates the existing regulatory provisions

  3. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

  4. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs