Testing for changes in spatial relative risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Hazelton, Martin L

2017-07-30

The spatial relative risk function is a useful tool for describing geographical variation in disease incidence. We consider the problem of comparing relative risk functions between two time periods, with the idea of detecting alterations in the spatial pattern of disease risk irrespective of whether there has been a change in the overall incidence rate. Using case-control datasets for each period, we use kernel smoothing methods to derive a test statistic based on the difference between the log-relative risk functions, which we term the log-relative risk ratio. For testing a null hypothesis of an unchanging spatial pattern of risk, we show how p-values can be computed using both randomization methods and an asymptotic normal approximation. The methodology is applied to data on campylobacteriosis from 2006 to 2013 in a region of New Zealand. We find clear evidence of a change in the spatial pattern of risk between those years, which can be explained in differences by response to a public health initiative between urban and rural communities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk-based regulation: Challenges and opportunities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bari, R.A.

1995-01-01

Over the last twenty years, man has witnessed a gradual but steady movement toward increased usage of risk-based methods and results in the regulatory process. The ''risk perspective'' as a supportive view to existing (non-risk-based or deterministic) information used in decision making has a firm foothold now in most countries that regulate nuclear power. Furthermore, in the areas outside the nuclear power field, such as health risk assessment, risk-based information is used increasingly to make decisions on potential impacts of chemical, biological, and radiological exposures. Some of the principal concepts and issues that are pertinent to risk-based regulation are reviewed. There is a growing interest in most countries in the use of risk-based methods and results to facilitate decision-making associated with regulatory processes. A summary is presented of the challenges and opportunities related to expanded use of risk-based regulation

Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jose Andres Calvache

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

Risk-based decisionmaking (Panel)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, T.H.

1995-12-31

By means of a panel discussion and extensive audience interaction, explore the current challenges and progress to date in applying risk considerations to decisionmaking related to low-level waste. This topic is especially timely because of the proposed legislation pertaining to risk-based decisionmaking and because of the increased emphasis placed on radiological performance assessments of low-level waste disposal.

Suicide risk in relation to psychiatric hospitalization: evidence based on longitudinal registers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qin, Ping; Nordentoft, Merete

2005-01-01

history increases suicide risk relatively more in women than in men; and suicide risk is substantial for substance disorders and for multiple admissions in women but not in men. CONCLUSIONS: Suicide risk peaks in periods immediately after admission and discharge. The risk is particularly high in persons...... with affective disorders and in persons with short hospital treatment. These findings should lead to systematic evaluation of suicide risk among inpatients before discharge and corresponding outpatient treatment, and family support should be initiated immediately after the discharge...

Determinants and stability over time of perception of health risks related to mobile phone base stations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kowall, Bernd; Breckenkamp, Jürgen; Blettner, Maria

2012-01-01

about other environmental and health risks, is associated with psychological strain, and is stable on the individual level over time. METHODS: Self-administered questionnaires filled in by 3,253 persons aged 15-69 years in 2004 and 2006 in Germany. RESULTS: Risk perception of MPBS was strongly......OBJECTIVE: Perception of possible health risks related to mobile phone base stations (MPBS) is an important factor in citizens' opposition against MPBS and is associated with health complaints. The aim of the present study is to assess whether risk perception of MPBS is associated with concerns...... in 2004 expressed these concerns again 2 years later, the corresponding figure for attribution of health complaints to MPBS was 31.3%. CONCLUSION: Risk perception of MPBS is strongly associated with general concern, anxiety, depression, and stress, and rather instable over time....

Relative risk analysis of several manufactured nanomaterials: an insurance industry context.

Science.gov (United States)

Robichaud, Christine Ogilvie; Tanzil, Dicksen; Weilenmann, Ulrich; Wiesner, Mark R

2005-11-15

A relative risk assessment is presented for the industrial fabrication of several nanomaterials. The production processes for five nanomaterials were selected for this analysis, based on their current or near-term potential for large-scale production and commercialization: single-walled carbon nanotubes, bucky balls (C60), one variety of quantum dots, alumoxane nanoparticles, and nano-titanium dioxide. The assessment focused on the activities surrounding the fabrication of nanomaterials, exclusive of any impacts or risks with the nanomaterials themselves. A representative synthesis method was selected for each nanomaterial based on its potential for scaleup. A list of input materials, output materials, and waste streams for each step of fabrication was developed and entered into a database that included key process characteristics such as temperature and pressure. The physical-chemical properties and quantities of the inventoried materials were used to assess relative risk based on factors such as volatility, carcinogenicity, flammability, toxicity, and persistence. These factors were first used to qualitatively rank risk, then combined using an actuarial protocol developed by the insurance industry for the purpose of calculating insurance premiums for chemical manufacturers. This protocol ranks three categories of risk relative to a 100 point scale (where 100 represents maximum risk): incident risk, normal operations risk, and latent contamination risk. Results from this analysis determined that relative environmental risk from manufacturing each of these five materials was comparatively low in relation to other common industrial manufacturing processes.

Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

2007-03-01

To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (Ptrinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

1990-01-01

When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate

Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

2000-01-01

Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

The maternal age-related first trimester risks for trisomy 21, 18 and 13 based on Danish first trimester data from 2005 to 2014

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hartwig, Tanja Schlaikjær; Sørensen, Steen; Jørgensen, Finn Stener

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Most currently used age-related risks of T21, T18 and T13 are based on estimates of the live-birth prevalence, and describe an exponential increase of risk by increased maternal age. We investigated the first trimester prevalence of T21, T18 and T13 in a large population of Danish women......) / slope)) was found to best describe the age-related risk of T21, T18 and T13. CONCLUSION: We found that the age-related risks are better described by sigmoidal functions, contrary to the widely assumed exponential functions. Our results indicate a lower age-related a priori risk of T21, T18 and T13...

Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thadani, A.C.

1997-01-01

This article summarizes the activities of the Office of Research of the NRC, both from a historical aspect as well as it applies to the application of risk-based decision making. The office has been actively involved in problems related to understanding risks related to core accidents, to understanding the problem of aging of reactor components and materials from years of service, and toward the understanding and analysis of severe accidents. In addition new policy statements regarding the role of risk assessment in regulatory applications has given focus for the need of further work. The NRC has used risk assessment in regulatory questions in the past but in a fairly ad hoc sort of manner. The new policies will clearly require a better defined application of risk assessment, and help for people evaluating applications in judging the applicability of such applications when a component of them is based on risk-based decision making. To address this, standard review plans are being prepared to serve as guides for such questions. In addition, with regulatory decisions being allowed to be based upon risk-based decisions, it is necessary to have an adequate data base prepared, and made publically available, to support such a position

Risk-based remediation: Approach and application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frishmuth, R.A.; Benson, L.A.

1995-01-01

The principle objective of remedial actions is to protect human health and the environment. Risk assessments are the only defensible tools available to demonstrate to the regulatory community and public that this objective can be achieved. Understanding the actual risks posed by site-related contamination is crucial to designing cost-effective remedial strategies. All to often remedial actions are overdesigned, resulting in little to no increase in risk reduction while increasing project cost. Risk-based remedial actions have recently been embraced by federal and state regulators, industry, government, the scientific community, and the public as a mechanism to implement rapid and cost-effective remedial actions. Emphasizing risk reduction, rather than adherence to ambiguous and generic standards, ensures that only remedial actions required to protect human health and the environment at a particular site are implemented. Two sites are presented as case studies on how risk-based approaches are being used to remediate two petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites. The sites are located at two US Air Force Bases, Wurtsmith Air Force Base (AFB) in Oscoda, Michigan and Malmstrom AFB in Great Falls, Montana

Varied definitions of risk related to sensation seeking trait

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daastoel, P.Oe.U.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M.

1999-01-01

This pilot study is based on the assumption and the knowledge that previous results show that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. The risk definitions the subjects use have also been shown to be related to various educational interests. A related field of research has developed measures for Sensation Seeking personality trait, with four facets. Three independent groups of first year psychology students reported their normal definition of the word risk using one of three measurement formats. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was danger. Subjects who defined risk as the combination of probability and consequences tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale, as compared to those defining risk as the probability of an event

Varied definitions of risk related to sensation seeking trait

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daastoel, P.Oe.U.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M. [Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway). Dept. of Psychology

1999-12-01

This pilot study is based on the assumption and the knowledge that previous results show that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. The risk definitions the subjects use have also been shown to be related to various educational interests. A related field of research has developed measures for Sensation Seeking personality trait, with four facets. Three independent groups of first year psychology students reported their normal definition of the word risk using one of three measurement formats. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was danger. Subjects who defined risk as the combination of probability and consequences tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale, as compared to those defining risk as the probability of an event.

Association between firearm ownership, firearm-related risk and risk reduction behaviours and alcohol-related risk behaviours.

Science.gov (United States)

Wintemute, Garen J

2011-12-01

Alcohol use and firearm ownership are risk factors for violent injury and death. To determine whether firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours, the author conducted a cross-sectional study using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data for eight states in the USA from 1996 to 1997 (the most recent data available). Altogether, 15 474 respondents provided information on firearm exposure. After adjustment for demographics and state of residence, firearm owners were more likely than those with no firearms at home to have ≥5 drinks on one occasion (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.50), to drink and drive (OR 1.79; 95% CI 1.34 to 2.39) and to have ≥60 drinks per month (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.14 to 1.83). Heavy alcohol use was most common among firearm owners who also engaged in behaviours such as carrying a firearm for protection against other people and keeping a firearm at home that was both loaded and not locked away. The author concludes that firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours.

Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

2012-01-01

Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

Nighttime parenting strategies and sleep-related risks to infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Volpe, Lane E; Ball, Helen L; McKenna, James J

2013-02-01

A large social science and public health literature addresses infant sleep safety, with implications for infant mortality in the context of accidental deaths and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). As part of risk reduction campaigns in the USA, parents are encouraged to place infants supine and to alter infant bedding and elements of the sleep environment, and are discouraged from allowing infants to sleep unsupervised, from bed-sharing either at all or under specific circumstances, or from sofa-sharing. These recommendations are based on findings from large-scale epidemiological studies that generate odds ratios or relative risk statistics for various practices; however, detailed behavioural data on nighttime parenting and infant sleep environments are limited. To address this issue, this paper presents and discusses the implications of four case studies based on overnight observations conducted with first-time mothers and their four-month old infants. These case studies were collected at the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at the University of Notre Dame USA between September 2002 and June 2004. Each case study provides a detailed description based on video analysis of sleep-related risks observed while mother-infant dyads spent the night in a sleep lab. The case studies provide examples of mothers engaged in the strategic management of nighttime parenting for whom sleep-related risks to infants arose as a result of these strategies. Although risk reduction guidelines focus on eliminating potentially risky infant sleep practices as if the probability of death from each were equal, the majority of instances in which these occur are unlikely to result in infant mortality. Therefore, we hypothesise that mothers assess potential costs and benefits within margins of risk which are not acknowledged by risk-reduction campaigns. Exploring why mothers might choose to manage sleep and nighttime parenting in ways that appear to increase potential risks to infants may

Malaria in Africa: vector species' niche models and relative risk maps.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Moffett

2007-09-01

Full Text Available A central theoretical goal of epidemiology is the construction of spatial models of disease prevalence and risk, including maps for the potential spread of infectious disease. We provide three continent-wide maps representing the relative risk of malaria in Africa based on ecological niche models of vector species and risk analysis at a spatial resolution of 1 arc-minute (9 185 275 cells of approximately 4 sq km. Using a maximum entropy method we construct niche models for 10 malaria vector species based on species occurrence records since 1980, 19 climatic variables, altitude, and land cover data (in 14 classes. For seven vectors (Anopheles coustani, A. funestus, A. melas, A. merus, A. moucheti, A. nili, and A. paludis these are the first published niche models. We predict that Central Africa has poor habitat for both A. arabiensis and A. gambiae, and that A. quadriannulatus and A. arabiensis have restricted habitats in Southern Africa as claimed by field experts in criticism of previous models. The results of the niche models are incorporated into three relative risk models which assume different ecological interactions between vector species. The "additive" model assumes no interaction; the "minimax" model assumes maximum relative risk due to any vector in a cell; and the "competitive exclusion" model assumes the relative risk that arises from the most suitable vector for a cell. All models include variable anthrophilicity of vectors and spatial variation in human population density. Relative risk maps are produced from these models. All models predict that human population density is the critical factor determining malaria risk. Our method of constructing relative risk maps is equally general. We discuss the limits of the relative risk maps reported here, and the additional data that are required for their improvement. The protocol developed here can be used for any other vector-borne disease.

III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

2017-06-01

Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perception of mobile phone and base station risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Siegrist, Michael; Earle, Timothy C; Gutscher, Heinz; Keller, Carmen

2005-10-01

Perceptions of risks associated with mobile phones, base stations, and other sources of electromagnetic fields (EMF) were examined. Data from a telephone survey conducted in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland are presented (N = 1,015). Participants assessed both risks and benefits associated with nine different sources of EMF. Trust in the authorities regulating these hazards was assessed as well. In addition, participants answered a set of questions related to attitudes toward EMF and toward mobile phone base stations. According to respondents' assessments, high-voltage transmission lines are the most risky source of EMF. Mobile phones and mobile phone base stations received lower risk ratings. Results showed that trust in authorities was positively associated with perceived benefits and negatively associated with perceived risks. People who use their mobile phones frequently perceived lower risks and higher benefits than people who use their mobile phones infrequently. People who believed they lived close to a base station did not significantly differ in their level of risks associated with mobile phone base stations from people who did not believe they lived close to a base station. Regarding risk regulation, a majority of participants were in favor of fixing limiting values based on the worst-case scenario. Correlations suggest that belief in paranormal phenomena is related to level of perceived risks associated with EMF. Furthermore, people who believed that most chemical substances cause cancer also worried more about EMF than people who did not believe that chemical substances are that harmful. Practical implications of the results are discussed.

Decreasing relative risk premium

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Frank

2007-01-01

such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...

Evaluation of energy related risk acceptance (APHA energy task force)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hull, A.P.

1977-01-01

Living in a technological society with large energy requirements involves a number of related actities with attendant health risks, both to the working and to the general public. Therefore, the formulation of some general principles for risk acceptance is necessary. In addition to maximizing benefits and minimizing risk, relevant considerations must be made about the perception of risk as voluntary or involuntary, the number of persons collectively at risk at any one occasion, and the extent to which a risk is a familiar one. With regard to a given benefit, such as a given amount of energy, comparisons of the risks of alternate modes of production may be utilized. However, cost-benefit consideration is essential to the amelioration of current or prospective risks. This is unusual, since it is based on some estimate of the monetary value per premature death averted. It is proposed that increased longevity would be a more satisfactory measure. On a societal basis, large expenditures for additional energy-related pollution control do not appear justifiable since much larger, nonenergy-related health risks are relatively underaddressed. Knowledgeable health professionals could benefit the public by imparting authoritative information in this area

Socioeconomic status in relation to Parkinson's disease risk and mortality: A population-based prospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Fei; Johansson, Anna L V; Pedersen, Nancy L; Fang, Fang; Gatz, Margaret; Wirdefeldt, Karin

2016-07-01

Little is known about the role of socioeconomic status in relation to Parkinson's disease (PD) risk, and no study has investigated whether the impact of socioeconomic status on all-cause mortality differs between individuals with and without PD.In this population-based prospective study, over 4.6 million Swedish inhabitants who participated in the Swedish census in 1980 were followed from 1981 to 2010. The incidence rate of PD and incidence rate ratio were estimated for the association between socioeconomic status and PD risk. Age-standardized mortality rate and hazard ratio (HR) were estimated for the association between socioeconomic status and all-cause mortality for individuals with and without PD.During follow-up, 66,332 incident PD cases at a mean age of 76.0 years were recorded. Compared to individuals with the highest socioeconomic status (high nonmanual workers), all other socioeconomic groups (manual or nonmanual and self-employed workers) had a lower PD risk. All-cause mortality rates were higher in individuals with lower socioeconomic status compared with high nonmanual workers, but relative risks for all-cause mortality were lower in PD patients than in non-PD individuals (e.g., for low manual workers, HR: 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09-1.15 for PD patients; HR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.35-1.36 for non-PD individuals).Individuals with lower socioeconomic status had a lower PD incidence compared to the highest socioeconomic group. Lower socioeconomic status was associated with higher all-cause mortality among individuals with and without PD, but such impact was weaker among PD patients.

Helicobacter pylori-related chronic gastritis as a risk factor for colonic neoplasms.

Science.gov (United States)

Inoue, Izumi; Kato, Jun; Tamai, Hideyuki; Iguchi, Mikitaka; Maekita, Takao; Yoshimura, Noriko; Ichinose, Masao

2014-02-14

To summarize the current views and insights on associations between Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori)-related chronic gastritis and colorectal neoplasm, we reviewed recent studies to clarify whether H. pylori infection/H. pylori-related chronic gastritis is associated with an elevated risk of colorectal neoplasm. Recent studies based on large databases with careful control for confounding variables have clearly demonstrated an increased risk of colorectal neoplasm associated with H. pylori infection. The correlation between H. pylori-related chronic atrophic gastritis (CAG) and colorectal neoplasm has only been examined in a limited number of studies. A recent large study using a national histopathological database, and our study based on the stage of H. pylori-related chronic gastritis as determined by serum levels of H. pylori antibody titer and pepsinogen, indicated that H. pylori-related CAG confers an increased risk of colorectal neoplasm, and more extensive atrophic gastritis will probably be associated with even higher risk of neoplasm. In addition, our study suggested that the activity of H. pylori-related chronic gastritis is correlated with colorectal neoplasm risk. H. pylori-related chronic gastritis could be involved in an increased risk of colorectal neoplasm that appears to be enhanced by the progression of gastric atrophy and the presence of active inflammation.

Related factors and incidence risk of acute myocardial infarction among the people with disability: A national population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Ying-Ying; Kung, Pei-Tseng; Chiu, Li-Ting; Tsai, Wen-Chen

2014-11-06

Cardiovascular disease has always been a leading cause of death worldwide. Because the mobility of people with disability is relatively decreased, their risk of cardiovascular disease is increased. This study investigated the risks and relevant factors of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) among people with disability. This is a retrospective cohort study based on secondary data analysis. This study focused on 798,328 people with disability who were aged 35 and above during 2002-2008 and were registered in the National Disability Registration Database; the relevant medical data from 2000 to 2011 were acquired from the National Health Insurance Research Database. A Cox proportional hazards model was adopted for analyzing the relative AMI risks among different disability types and finding latent risk factors. The results indicated that the AMI incidence rate (per 1000 patient-years) among people with disability was 2.48. Men had an AMI incidence rate of 2.68 per 1000 patient-years, which was significantly higher than that of women (2.21; pdisability aged 65 and above had an AMI risk that was 5.01-6.03 times the risk for people with disability aged below 45. Disabled indigenous people had a relatively higher AMI risk (HR=1.35, 95% CI=1.19-1.52). The AMI risk for people with disability with a Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) of 4 and above was 5.89 times (95% CI=5.56-6.25) the risk for those with a CCI of 0. Compared with people with physical disabilities, people with visual impairment and people with dysfunctional primary organs had significantly higher AMI risks (HR=1.15; HR=1.66). This study found that people with disability who were male, aged 65 and above, married, indigenous, with physical disabilities, with high comorbidity, or with high disability levels had relatively higher AMI risks than other people with disability. The research outcomes can be used as references by public health authorities to improve the engagement of people with disability in AMI

A Preliminary Study on the Efficacy of a Community-Based Physical Activity Intervention on Physical Function-Related Risk Factors for Falls Among Breast Cancer Survivors.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, C Ellen; Warden, Stuart J; Szuck, Beth; Lau, Y K James

2016-08-01

The aim of this study was to examine the effects of a 6-week community-based physical activity (PA) intervention on physical function-related risk factors for falls among 56 breast cancer survivors (BCS) who had completed treatments. This was a single-group longitudinal study. The multimodal PA intervention included aerobic, strengthening, and balance components. Physical function outcomes based on the 4-meter walk, chair stand, one-leg stance, tandem walk, and dynamic muscular endurance tests were assessed at 6-week pre-intervention (T1), baseline (T2), and post-intervention (T3). T1 to T2 and T2 to T3 were the control and intervention periods, respectively. All outcomes, except the tandem walk test, significantly improved after the intervention period (P control period (P > 0.05). Based on the falls risk criterion in the one-leg stance test, the proportion at risk for falls was significantly lower after the intervention period (P = 0.04), but not after the control period. A community-based multimodal PA intervention for BCS may be efficacious in improving physical function-related risk factors for falls, and lowering the proportion of BCS at risk for falls based on specific physical function-related falls criteria. Further larger trials are needed to confirm these preliminary findings.

A Preliminary Study on the Efficacy of a Community-Based Physical Activity Intervention on Physical Function-Related Risk Factors for Falls among Breast Cancer Survivors

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, C. Ellen; Warden, Stuart J.; Szuck, Beth; Lau, Y.K. James

2015-01-01

Objective The aim of this study was to examine the effects of a 6-week community-based physical activity (PA) intervention on physical function-related risk factors for falls among 56 breast cancer survivors (BCS) who had completed treatments. Design This was a single-group longitudinal study. The multimodal PA intervention included aerobic, strengthening and balance components. Physical function outcomes based on the 4-meter walk, chair stand, one-leg stance, tandem walk, and dynamic muscular endurance tests were assessed at 6-week pre-intervention (T1), baseline (T2), and post-intervention (T3). T1-T2 and T2-T3 were the control and intervention periods, respectively. Results All outcomes, except the tandem walk test, significantly improved after the intervention period (p 0.05). Based on the falls risk criterion in the one-leg stance test, the proportion at risk for falls was significantly lower after the intervention period (p = 0.04), but not after the control period. Conclusions A community-based multimodal PA intervention for BCS may be efficacious in improving physical function-related risk factors for falls, and lowering the proportion of BCS at risk for falls based on specific physical function-related falls criteria. Further larger trials are needed to confirm these preliminary findings. PMID:26829081

Modelling domestic stock energy use and heat-related health risk : a GIS-based bottom-up modelling approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mavrogianni, A.; Davies, M. [Univ. College London, London (United Kingdom). Bartlett School of Graduate Studies; Chalabi, Z.; Wilkinson, P. [London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medecine, London (United Kingdom); Kolokotroni, M. [Brunel Univ., London (United Kingdom). School of Engineering Design

2009-07-01

Approximately 8 per cent of the carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions produced in the United Kingdom are produced in London, one of the fastest growing cities worldwide. Based on the projected rates of population and economic growth, a 15 per cent increase of emissions is predicted. In addition to the national target to cut emissions by 80 per cent by 2050, the Mayor of London Climate Change Action Plan set a target to reduce London's CO{sub 2} emissions by 60 per cent by 2025. Significant carbon savings can be achieved in the building sector, particularly since 38 per cent of the total delivered energy in London is associated with domestic energy use. This paper demonstrated a systematic approach towards exploring the impact of urban built form and the combined effect of climate change and the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon on the levels of domestic energy consumption and heat-related health risk in London. It presented work in progress on the development of a GIS-based energy consumption model and heat vulnerability index of the Greater London Area domestic stock. Comparison of the model output for 10 case study areas with topdown energy statistics revealed that the model successfully ranks areas based on their domestic space heating demand. The health module can be used to determine environments prone to higher risk of heat stress by investigating urban texture factors. A newly developed epidemiological model will be feed into the health module to examine the influence on risk of heat-related mortality of local urban built form characteristics. The epidemiological model is based on multi-variable analysis of deaths during heat wave and non-heat wave days. 29 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.

Estimating Risks and Relative Risks in Case-Base Studies under the Assumptions of Gene-Environment Independence and Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium

Science.gov (United States)

Chui, Tina Tsz-Ting; Lee, Wen-Chung

2014-01-01

Many diseases result from the interactions between genes and the environment. An efficient method has been proposed for a case-control study to estimate the genetic and environmental main effects and their interactions, which exploits the assumptions of gene-environment independence and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. To estimate the absolute and relative risks, one needs to resort to an alternative design: the case-base study. In this paper, the authors show how to analyze a case-base study under the above dual assumptions. This approach is based on a conditional logistic regression of case-counterfactual controls matched data. It can be easily fitted with readily available statistical packages. When the dual assumptions are met, the method is approximately unbiased and has adequate coverage probabilities for confidence intervals. It also results in smaller variances and shorter confidence intervals as compared with a previous method for a case-base study which imposes neither assumption. PMID:25137392

Estimating risks and relative risks in case-base studies under the assumptions of gene-environment independence and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tina Tsz-Ting Chui

Full Text Available Many diseases result from the interactions between genes and the environment. An efficient method has been proposed for a case-control study to estimate the genetic and environmental main effects and their interactions, which exploits the assumptions of gene-environment independence and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. To estimate the absolute and relative risks, one needs to resort to an alternative design: the case-base study. In this paper, the authors show how to analyze a case-base study under the above dual assumptions. This approach is based on a conditional logistic regression of case-counterfactual controls matched data. It can be easily fitted with readily available statistical packages. When the dual assumptions are met, the method is approximately unbiased and has adequate coverage probabilities for confidence intervals. It also results in smaller variances and shorter confidence intervals as compared with a previous method for a case-base study which imposes neither assumption.

76 FR 13902 - Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing Regulations

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-15

... TRADE COMMISSION 16 CFR Parts 640 and 698 RIN R411009 Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing... respective risk-based pricing rules to require disclosure of credit scores and information relating to credit scores in risk-based pricing notices if a credit score of the consumer is used in setting the material...

Risk-based safety indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szikszai, T.

1997-01-01

The presentation discusses the following issues: The objectives of the risk-based indicator programme. The characteristics of the risk-based indicators. The objectives of risk-based safety indicators - in monitoring safety; in PSA applications. What indicators? How to produce the risk based indicators? PSA requirements

Existing Regulatory Approaches to Reducing Exposures to Chemical- and Product-Based Risk and Their Applicability to Diet-Related Chronic Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Deborah A; Knopman, Debra S

2018-04-17

We aimed to identify and categorize the types of policies that have been adopted to protect Americans from harmful exposures that could also be relevant for addressing diet-related chronic diseases. This article examines and categorizes the rationales behind government regulation. Our interest in the historical analysis is to inform judgments about how best to address newly emergent risks involving diet-related chronic disease within existing regulatory and information-based frameworks. We assessed exemplars of regulation with respect to harmful exposures from air, water, and food, as well as regulations that are intended to modify voluntary behaviors. Following the comparative analysis, we explored how exposures that lead to diet-related chronic diseases among the general population fit within models of regulation adopted for other comparable risks. We identified five rationales and five approaches that protect people from harmful exposures. Reasons for regulation include: protection from involuntary exposure to risk, high risk of death or chronic illness, ubiquity of risk, counteraction to limit compulsive behaviors, and promotion of population health. Regulatory approaches include: mandatory limits on use, mandatory limits on exposure, mandatory controls on quality, mandatory labeling, and voluntary guidance. In contrast to the use of mandates, the prevention of diet-related chronic diseases thus far has largely relied on information-only approaches and voluntary adoption of guidelines. There is ample precedent for mandatory regulatory approaches that could address harms related to exposure to unhealthy diets, but several barriers to action would need to be overcome. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Anesthesiologist- and System-Related Risk Factors for Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Anesthesia-Related Cardiac Arrest.

Science.gov (United States)

Zgleszewski, Steven E; Graham, Dionne A; Hickey, Paul R; Brustowicz, Robert M; Odegard, Kirsten C; Koka, Rahul; Seefelder, Christian; Navedo, Andres T; Randolph, Adrienne G

2016-02-01

Pediatric anesthesia-related cardiac arrest (ARCA) is an uncommon but potentially preventable adverse event. Infants and children with more severe underlying disease are at highest risk. We aimed to identify system- and anesthesiologist-related risk factors for ARCA. We analyzed a prospectively collected patient cohort data set of anesthetics administered from 2000 to 2011 to children at a large tertiary pediatric hospital. Pre-procedure systemic disease level was characterized by ASA physical status (ASA-PS). Two reviewers independently reviewed cardiac arrests and categorized their anesthesia relatedness. Factors associated with ARCA in the univariate analyses were identified for reevaluation after adjustment for patient age and ASA-PS. Cardiac arrest occurred in 142 of 276,209 anesthetics (incidence 5.1/10,000 anesthetics); 72 (2.6/10,000 anesthetics) were classified as anesthesia-related. In the univariate analyses, risk of ARCA was much higher in cardiac patients and for anesthesiologists with lower annual caseload and/or fewer annual days delivering anesthetics (all P risk adjustment for ASA-PS ≥ III and age ≤ 6 months, however, the association with lower annual days delivering anesthetics remained (P = 0.03), but the other factors were no longer significant. Case-mix explained most associations between higher risk of pediatric ARCA and anesthesiologist-related variables at our institution, but the association with fewer annual days delivering anesthetics remained. Our findings highlight the need for rigorous adjustment for patient risk factors in anesthesia patient safety studies.

Risk based modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

1993-01-01

Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

Risk Aversion Relates to Cognitive Ability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

2016-01-01

Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making, rather than to risk preferences....

Risk aversion relates to cognitive ability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making rather than to risk preferences....

Risk of cancer in relatives of patients with myotonic dystrophy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, M; Diaz, L J; Gørtz, S

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Myotonic dystrophies (DM) are autosomal dominantly inherited neuromuscular disorders caused by unstable nucleotide repeat expansions. DM and cancer have been associated, but the pathogenesis behind the association remains unclear. It could relate to derived effects of the DM...... genotype in which case non-DM relatives of DM patients would not be expected to be at increased risk of cancer. To elucidate this, a population-based cohort study investigating risk of cancer in relatives of DM patients was conducted. METHODS: DM was identified using the National Danish Patient Registry...

Concept analysis of risk in relation to coronary heart disease among Filipino-Americans.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalusung-Angosta, Alona

2010-01-01

To analyze the concept of risk in relation to coronary heart disease (CHD) among Filipino-Americans (FAs) and provide a new definition of risk. Published literature. This concept analysis provided a new meaning of risk in relation to CHD among FAs and shed light on further understanding of risk. Risk has been laced with negativity in health care, but based on the current literature, risk can be conceptualized in a positive perspective, especially in the area of chronic health disease such as CHD. However, further research is needed in the conceptualization of risk related to CHD for consistency, adequacy, and meaning. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Fuel related risks; Braenslerisker

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Englund, Jessica; Sernhed, Kerstin; Nystroem, Olle; Graveus, Frank (Grontmij AB, (Sweden))

2012-02-15

The project, within which this work report was prepared, aimed to complement the Vaermeforsk publication 'Handbook of fuels' on fuel related risks and measures to reduce the risks. The fuels examined in this project where the fuels included in the first version of the handbook from 2005 plus four additional fuels that will be included in the second and next edition of the handbook. Following fuels were included: woodfuels (sawdust, wood chips, powder, briquettes), slash, recycled wood, salix, bark, hardwood, stumps, straw, reed canary grass, hemp, cereal, cereal waste, olive waste, cocoa beans, citrus waste, shea, sludge, forest industrial sludge, manure, Paper Wood Plastic, tyre, leather waste, cardboard rejects, meat and bone meal, liquid animal and vegetable wastes, tall oil pitch, peat, residues from food industry, biomal (including slaughterhouse waste) and lignin. The report includes two main chapters; a general risk chapter and a chapter of fuel specific risks. The first one deals with the general concept of risk, it highlights laws and rules relevant for risk management and it discuss general risks that are related to the different steps of fuel handling, i.e. unloading, storing, processing the fuel, transportation within the facility, combustion and handling of ashes. The information that was used to produce this chapter was gathered through a literature review, site visits, and the project group's experience from risk management. The other main chapter deals with fuel-specific risks and the measures to reduce the risks for the steps of unloading, storing, processing the fuel, internal transportation, combustion and handling of the ashes. Risks and measures were considered for all the biofuels included in the second version in the handbook of fuels. Information about the risks and risk management was gathered through interviews with people working with different kinds of fuels in electricity and heat plants in Sweden. The information from

Risk-based investment trade-off related to building facility management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Taillandier, F. [Departement TIDS, Centre Scientifique et Technique du Batiment, 06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Laboratoire Optimisation de la conception et Ingenierie de l' environnement, Polytech' Savoie, Universite de Savoie, 73376 Le Bourget du lac (France)], E-mail: franck.taillandier@univ-savoie.fr; Sauce, G. [Laboratoire Optimisation de la conception et Ingenierie de l' environnement, Polytech' Savoie, Universite de Savoie, 73376 Le Bourget du lac (France); Bonetto, R. [Departement TIDS, Centre Scientifique et Technique du Batiment, 06904 Sophia Antipolis (France)

2009-04-15

Due to his or her profession, any building facility manager has to face many decision-making situations. One of the most important to be mentioned is the arbitration of a multi-year maintenance plan for buildings. Deciding between proposed maintenance actions, according to several constraints, so as to aim at satisfying corporate strategy is a complex choice. Risk approaches can be particularly effective because of their ability to handle complexity and uncertainties. The problem is then to be able to propose a method considering risks, adapted to the specific context of building facility management. Our method, regarded as a traditional approach, includes needed resources (i.e. costs) according to constraints (i.e. budget), but it also considers several risk domains (safety, technical preservation, client satisfaction, etc.), through the consequences (gain and loss). It proposes an ergonomic arbitration system based on filters following two complementary approaches: a selection of the fundamental actions and then an optimization of the plan (in a global view). The aim, for decision-makers, is to build their own solution by testing multiple angles of vision in simulation logic. This article presents the principles of the method, illustrated by an example of a real case conducted for a leading French company.

Risk-based investment trade-off related to building facility management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taillandier, F.; Sauce, G.; Bonetto, R.

2009-01-01

Due to his or her profession, any building facility manager has to face many decision-making situations. One of the most important to be mentioned is the arbitration of a multi-year maintenance plan for buildings. Deciding between proposed maintenance actions, according to several constraints, so as to aim at satisfying corporate strategy is a complex choice. Risk approaches can be particularly effective because of their ability to handle complexity and uncertainties. The problem is then to be able to propose a method considering risks, adapted to the specific context of building facility management. Our method, regarded as a traditional approach, includes needed resources (i.e. costs) according to constraints (i.e. budget), but it also considers several risk domains (safety, technical preservation, client satisfaction, etc.), through the consequences (gain and loss). It proposes an ergonomic arbitration system based on filters following two complementary approaches: a selection of the fundamental actions and then an optimization of the plan (in a global view). The aim, for decision-makers, is to build their own solution by testing multiple angles of vision in simulation logic. This article presents the principles of the method, illustrated by an example of a real case conducted for a leading French company

Urbanization and traffic related exposures as risk factors for Schizophrenia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Mortensen, Preben Bo

2006-01-01

to nearest major road had no significant effect. CONCLUSIONS: The cause(s) or exposure(s) responsible for the urban-rural differences in schizophrenia risk were closer related to the degree of urbanization than to the geographical distance to nearest major road. Traffic related exposures might thus be less......BACKGROUND: Urban birth or upbringing increase schizophrenia risk. Though unknown, the causes of these urban-rural differences have been hypothesized to include, e.g., infections, diet, toxic exposures, social class, or an artefact due to selective migration. METHODS: We investigated the hypothesis...... that traffic related exposures affect schizophrenia risk and that this potential effect is responsible for the urban-rural differences. The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road was used as a proxy variable for traffic related exposures. We used a large population-based sample...

A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sitima Innocent

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Ning

Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is

Polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS), related symptoms/sequelae, and breast cancer risk in a population-based case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jayeon; Mersereau, Jennifer E; Khankari, Nikhil; Bradshaw, Patrick T; McCullough, Lauren E; Cleveland, Rebecca; Shantakumar, Sumitra; Teitelbuam, Susan L; Neugut, Alfred I; Senie, Ruby T; Gammon, Marilie D

2016-03-01

Despite the overlap between the clinical symptoms/sequelae of polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) and many known reproductive risk factors for breast cancer, the relationship between PCOS and breast cancer remains unclear, possibly because of the complex heterogeneity and challenges in diagnosing PCOS over time. We hypothesized that PCOS, specific PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae, or clusters of PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae may be differentially associated with pre- versus postmenopausal breast cancer risk. Cases were 1,508 women newly diagnosed with a first primary in situ or invasive breast, and the 1,556 population-based controls were frequency-matched by age. History of physician-diagnosed PCOS was reported by 2.2 % (n = 67), among whom oral contraceptive (OC) use, irregular menstruation, and infertility due to ovulatory dysfunction were common. Using unconditional logistic regression, adjusted odds ratios (95 % CI) for PCOS were increased for premenopausal [2.74 (1.13, 6.63)], but not postmenopausal breast cancer [0.87 (0.44, 1.71)]. We used cluster analysis to investigate whether risk among all women varied by PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae, such as reproductive irregularities, OC use, and components of insulin resistance. In the cluster analysis, odds ratios were elevated among premenopausal women who had a history of OC use and no ovulatory dysfunction [1.39 (1.03, 1.88)], compared to those with fewer number of PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae. PCOS and associated PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae including OC use may play a role in the development of premenopausal breast cancer. Our findings require confirmation in studies with a larger number of premenopausal women with systematically applied diagnostic criteria for PCOS.

Polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS), related symptoms/sequelae, and breast cancer risk in a population-based case-control study

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jayeon; Mersereau, Jennifer E.; Khankari, Nikhil; Bradshaw, Patrick T.; McCullough, Lauren E.; Cleveland, Rebecca; Shantakumar, Sumitra; Teitelbuam, Susan L.; Neugut, Alfred I.; Senie, Ruby T.; Gammon, Marilie D.

2016-01-01

Purpose Despite the overlap between the clinical symptoms/sequelae of polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) and many known reproductive risk factors for breast cancer, the relationship between PCOS and breast cancer remains unclear, possibly because of the complex heterogeneity and challenges in diagnosing PCOS over time. We hypothesized that PCOS, specific PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae, or clusters of PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae, may be differentially associated with pre- vs. postmenopausal breast cancer risk. Materials and Methods Cases were 1,508 women newly diagnosed with a first primary in situ or invasive breast, and the 1,556 population-based controls were frequency-matched by age. Results History of physician-diagnosed PCOS was reported by 2.2% (n=67), among whom oral contraceptive (OC) use, irregular menstruation, and infertility due to ovulatory dysfunction were common. Using unconditional logistic regression, adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for PCOS were increased for premenopausal [2.74 (1.13, 6.63)], but not post-menopausal breast cancer [0.87 (0.44, 1.71)]. We used cluster analysis to investigate whether risk among all women varied by PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae, such as reproductive irregularities, OC use, and components of insulin resistance. In the cluster analysis, odds ratios were elevated among premenopausal women who had a history of OC use and no ovulatory dysfunction [1.39 (1.03, 1.88)], compared to those with fewer number of PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae. Conclusion PCOS, and associated PCOS-related symptoms/sequelae including OC use, may play a role in the development of premenopausal breast cancer. Our findings require confirmation in studies with a larger number of premenopausal women with systematically applied diagnostic criteria for PCOS. PMID:26797454

A risk-based review of Instrument Air systems at nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeMoss, G.; Lofgren, E.; Rothleder, B.; Villeran, M.; Ruger, C.

1990-01-01

The broad objective of this analysis was to provide risk-based information to help focus regulatory actions related to Instrument Air (IA) systems at operating nuclear power plants. We first created an extensive data base of summarized and characterized IA-related events that gave a qualitative indication of the nature and severity of these events. Additionally, this data base was used to calculate the frequencies of certain events, which were used in the risk analysis. The risk analysis consisted of reviewing published PRAs and NRC Accident Sequence Precursor reports for IA-initiated accident sequences, IA interactions with frontline systems, and IA-related risk significant events. Sensitivity calculations were performed when possible. Generically, IA was found to contribute less to total risk than many safety systems; however, specific design weaknesses in safety systems, non-safety systems, and the IA system were found to be significant in risk. 22 refs., 13 figs., 24 tabs

Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the exposure risk on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Based upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high exposure risk. As a consequence the following recommendations are presented: occupationally exposed persons with small exposure risk should be monitored using only a long-term desimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence desimeter). In the case of internal exposure, the surface and air contamination levels should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed

New approach for risk based inspection of H2S based Process Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinod, Gopika; Sharma, Pavan K.; Santosh, T.V.; Hari Prasad, M.; Vaze, K.K.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Study looks into improving the consequence evaluation in risk based inspection. • Ways to revise the quantity factors used in qualitative approach. • New approach based on computational fluid dynamics along with probit mathematics. • Demonstrated this methodology along with a suitable case study for the said issue. - Abstract: Recent trend in risk informed and risk based approaches in life management issues have certainly put the focus on developing estimation methods for real risk. Idea of employing risk as an optimising measure for in-service inspection, termed as risk based inspection, was accepted in principle from late 80s. While applying risk based inspection, consequence of failure from each component needs to be assessed. Consequence evaluation in a Process Plant is a crucial task. It may be noted that, in general, the number of components to be considered for life management is very large and hence the consequence evaluation resulting from their failures (individually) is a laborious task. Screening of critical components is usually carried out using simplified qualitative approach, which primarily uses influence factors for categorisation. This necessitates logical formulation of influence factors and their ranges with a suitable technical basis for acceptance from regulators. This paper describes application of risk based inspection for H 2 S based Process Plant along with the approach devised for handling the influence factor related to the quantity of H 2 S released

Employment relations, flexibility and risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Carsten Strøby

Employment relations literature often distinguishes between social democratic/corporatist models of employment relations and liberal models of employment relations as they are seen as opposite or at least different ways of organizing labor markets. They are often characterized as having very...... different risk profiles in terms of relationships between employees, employers, and the state. Low levels of labor market regulation very often characterize the liberal models of employment relations as we know them from, for instance, the USA and the UK. This means that employment conditions are very often...... insecure and that the burden of unemployment risk mostly lies with the employees rather than the employer. Corporatist – or social democratic – employment relations models are, in contrast to the liberal models, often characterized by stricter regulation of the labor market and by high standards...

77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-30

...'' framework that includes (1) Risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk, and operational... default and credit quality migration risk for non-securitization credit products. With respect to... securitization positions, the revisions assign a specific risk- weighting factor based on the credit rating of a...

Study of a risk-based piping inspection guideline system.

Science.gov (United States)

Tien, Shiaw-Wen; Hwang, Wen-Tsung; Tsai, Chih-Hung

2007-02-01

A risk-based inspection system and a piping inspection guideline model were developed in this study. The research procedure consists of two parts--the building of a risk-based inspection model for piping and the construction of a risk-based piping inspection guideline model. Field visits at the plant were conducted to develop the risk-based inspection and strategic analysis system. A knowledge-based model had been built in accordance with international standards and local government regulations, and the rational unified process was applied for reducing the discrepancy in the development of the models. The models had been designed to analyze damage factors, damage models, and potential damage positions of piping in the petrochemical plants. The purpose of this study was to provide inspection-related personnel with the optimal planning tools for piping inspections, hence, to enable effective predictions of potential piping risks and to enhance the better degree of safety in plant operations that the petrochemical industries can be expected to achieve. A risk analysis was conducted on the piping system of a petrochemical plant. The outcome indicated that most of the risks resulted from a small number of pipelines.

Risk-based safety indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sedlak, J.

2001-12-01

The report is structured as follows: 1. Risk-based safety indicators: Typology of risk-based indicators (RBIs); Tools for defining RBIs; Requirements for the PSA model; Data sources for RBIs; Types of risks monitored; RBIs and operational safety indicators; Feedback from operating experience; PSO model modification for RBIs; RBI categorization; RBI assessment; RBI applications; Suitable RBI applications. 2. Proposal for risk-based indicators: Acquiring information from operational experience; Method of acquiring safety relevance coefficients for the systems from a PSA model; Indicator definitions; On-line indicators. 3. Annex: Application of RBIs worldwide. (P.A.)

Gabapentin, opioids, and the risk of opioid-related death: A population-based nested case-control study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tara Gomes

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Prescription opioid use is highly associated with risk of opioid-related death, with 1 of every 550 chronic opioid users dying within approximately 2.5 years of their first opioid prescription. Although gabapentin is widely perceived as safe, drug-induced respiratory depression has been described when gabapentin is used alone or in combination with other medications. Because gabapentin and opioids are both commonly prescribed for pain, the likelihood of co-prescription is high. However, no published studies have examined whether concomitant gabapentin therapy is associated with an increased risk of accidental opioid-related death in patients receiving opioids. The objective of this study was to investigate whether co-prescription of opioids and gabapentin is associated with an increased risk of accidental opioid-related mortality.We conducted a population-based nested case-control study among opioid users who were residents of Ontario, Canada, between August 1, 1997, and December 31, 2013, using administrative databases. Cases, defined as opioid users who died of an opioid-related cause, were matched with up to 4 controls who also used opioids on age, sex, year of index date, history of chronic kidney disease, and a disease risk index. After matching, we included 1,256 cases and 4,619 controls. The primary exposure was concomitant gabapentin use in the 120 days preceding the index date. A secondary analysis characterized gabapentin dose as low (<900 mg daily, moderate (900 to 1,799 mg daily, or high (≥1,800 mg daily. A sensitivity analysis examined the effect of concomitant nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID use in the preceding 120 days. Overall, 12.3% of cases (155 of 1,256 and 6.8% of controls (313 of 4,619 were prescribed gabapentin in the prior 120 days. After multivariable adjustment, co-prescription of opioids and gabapentin was associated with a significantly increased odds of opioid-related death (odds ratio [OR] 1.99, 95% CI

Prenatal stress exposure related to maternal bereavement and risk of childhood overweight

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Jiong; Olsen, Jørn; Vestergaard, Mogens

2010-01-01

It has been suggested that prenatal stress contributes to the risk of obesity later in life. In a population-based cohort study, we examined whether prenatal stress related to maternal bereavement during pregnancy was associated with the risk of overweight in offspring during school age....

Nuclear fuel cycle risk assessment: survey and computer compilation of risk-related literature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yates, K.R.; Schreiber, A.M.; Rudolph, A.W.

1982-10-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has initiated the Fuel Cycle Risk Assessment Program to provide risk assessment methods for assistance in the regulatory process for nuclear fuel cycle facilities other than reactors. Both the once-through cycle and plutonium recycle are being considered. A previous report generated by this program defines and describes fuel cycle facilities, or elements, considered in the program. This report, the second from the program, describes the survey and computer compilation of fuel cycle risk-related literature. Sources of available information on the design, safety, and risk associated with the defined set of fuel cycle elements were searched and documents obtained were catalogued and characterized with respect to fuel cycle elements and specific risk/safety information. Both US and foreign surveys were conducted. Battelle's computer-based BASIS information management system was used to facilitate the establishment of the literature compilation. A complete listing of the literature compilation and several useful indexes are included. Future updates of the literature compilation will be published periodically. 760 annotated citations are included

Using prior risk-related knowledge to support risk management decisions: lessons learnt from a tunneling project.

Science.gov (United States)

Cárdenas, Ibsen Chivatá; Al-Jibouri, Saad S H; Halman, Johannes I M; van de Linde, Wim; Kaalberg, Frank

2014-10-01

The authors of this article have developed six probabilistic causal models for critical risks in tunnel works. The details of the models' development and evaluation were reported in two earlier publications of this journal. Accordingly, as a remaining step, this article is focused on the investigation into the use of these models in a real case study project. The use of the models is challenging given the need to provide information on risks that usually are both project and context dependent. The latter is of particular concern in underground construction projects. Tunnel risks are the consequences of interactions between site- and project-specific factors. Large variations and uncertainties in ground conditions as well as project singularities give rise to particular risk factors with very specific impacts. These circumstances mean that existing risk information, gathered from previous projects, is extremely difficult to use in other projects. This article considers these issues and addresses the extent to which prior risk-related knowledge, in the form of causal models, as the models developed for the investigation, can be used to provide useful risk information for the case study project. The identification and characterization of the causes and conditions that lead to failures and their interactions as well as their associated probabilistic information is assumed to be risk-related knowledge in this article. It is shown that, irrespective of existing constraints on using information and knowledge from past experiences, construction risk-related knowledge can be transferred and used from project to project in the form of comprehensive models based on probabilistic-causal relationships. The article also shows that the developed models provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures by means of the identification of critical risk factors, and therefore they support risk management decisions. Similarly, a number of limitations of the models are

[The genotype-based haplotype relative risk and transmission disequilibrium test analyses of familial febrile convulsions].

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Y; Wu, X; Guo, Z; Zhang, J; Pan, H; Li, M; Bao, X; Peng, J; Zou, L; Lin, Q

1999-10-01

To confirm the linkage of familial febrile convulsions to the short arm of chromosome 6(6p) or the long arm of chromosome 8(8q). The authors finished genotyping of Pst I locus on the coding region of heat shock protein (HSP) 70, 5'untranslated region of HSP70-1, 3' untranslated region of HSP70-2, D8S84 and D8S85. The data were processed by the genotype-based haplotype relative risk(GHRR) and transmission disequilibrium test(TDT) methods in PPAP. Some signs of association and disequilibrium between D8S85 and FC were shown by GHRR and TDT. A suspect linkage of familial febrile convulsions to the long arm of chromosome 8 has been proposed.

A partner-related risk behavior index to identify people at elevated risk for sexually transmitted infections.

Science.gov (United States)

Crosby, Richard; Shrier, Lydia A

2013-04-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and test a sexual-partner-related risk behavior index to identify high-risk individuals most likely to have a sexually transmitted infection (STI). Patients from five STI and adolescent medical clinics in three US cities were recruited (N = 928; M age = 29.2 years). Data were collected using audio-computer-assisted self-interviewing. Of seven sexual-partner-related variables, those that were significantly associated with the outcomes were combined into a partner-related risk behavior index. The dependent variables were laboratory-confirmed infection with Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and/or Trichomonas vaginalis. Nearly one-fifth of the sample (169/928; 18.4%) tested positive for an STI. Three of the seven items were significantly associated with having one or more STIs: sex with a newly released prisoner, sex with a person known or suspected of having an STI, and sexual concurrency. In combined form, this three-item index was significantly associated with STI prevalence (p one or more of three STIs. This index could be used to prioritize and guide intensified clinic-based counseling for high-risk patients of STI and other clinics.

Evaluation of air pollution-related risks for Austrian mountain forests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smidt, Stefan; Herman, Friedl

2004-01-01

The present paper describes air pollution status and evaluation of risks related to effects of phytotoxic pollutants in the Austrian mountain forests. The results are based on Austrian networks (Forest Inventory, Forest Damage Monitoring System, Austrian Bioindicator Grid), the Austrian sample plots of the European networks of the UN-ECE (ICP Forests, Level I and Level II) and interdisciplinary research approaches. Based on the monitoring data and on modelling and mapping of Critical Thresholds, the evaluation of risk factors was possible. Cause-effect relationships between air pollution and tree responses were shown by tree-physiological measurements. Sulfur impact, proton and lead input, concentrations of nitrogen oxides, nitrogen input and ozone were evaluated. The risk was demonstrated at a regional and large-scale national level. Especially the increasing O 3 level and the accumulation of Pb with altitude present most serious risk for mountain forests. - Despite strong reduction of emissions in Europe, pollutants are still a potential stress factor, especially for sensitive mountain forest ecosystems in Austria

Pushing and pulling in relation to musculoskeletal disorders : a review of risk factors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoozemans, M J; Van Der Beek, Allard J.; Frings-Dresen, M. H. W.; Dijk, F.J.H.; van der Woude, L H

The objective was to review the literature on risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders related to pushing and pulling. The risk factors have been described and evaluated from four perspectives: epidemiology, psychophysics, physiology, and biomechanics. Epidemiological studies have shown, based on

Pushing and pulling in relation to musculoskeletal disorders: a review of risk factors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoozemans, Marco; van der Beek, A.J.; Frings-Dresen, M.H.W.; Dijk, F.J.H.

1998-01-01

The objective was to review the literature on risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders related to pushing and pulling. The risk factors have been described and evaluated from four perspectives: epidemiology, psychophysics, physiology, and biomechanics. Epidemiological studies have shown, based on

Lung cancer risk in relation to traffic-related nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs exposure: a preliminary probabilistic assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Chung-Min; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Wei-Yu; Ju, Yun-Ru; Li, Wen-Hsuan; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Liao, Vivian Hsiu-Chuan; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Ling, Min-Pei

2011-06-15

Exposures to carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been linked to human lung cancer. The purpose of this study was to assess lung cancer risk caused by inhalation exposure to nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs at the population level in Taiwan appraised with recent published data. A human respiratory tract model was linked with a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model to estimate deposition fraction and internal organic-specific PAHs doses. A probabilistic risk assessment framework was developed to estimate potential lung cancer risk. We reanalyzed particle size distribution, total-PAHs, particle-bound benzo(a)pyrene (B[a]P) and PM concentrations. A dose-response profile describing the relationships between external B[a]P concentration and lung cancer risk response was constructed based on population attributable fraction (PAF). We found that 90% probability lung cancer risks ranged from 10(-5) to 10(-4) for traffic-related nano and ultrafine particle-bound PAHs, indicating a potential lung cancer risk. The particle size-specific PAF-based excess annual lung cancer incidence rate due to PAHs exposure was estimated to be less than 1 per 100,000 population, indicating a mild risk factor for lung cancer. We concluded that probabilistic risk assessment linked PAF for limiting cumulative PAHs emissions to reduce lung cancer risk plays a prominent role in future government risk assessment program. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk" | Durrheim | South African ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

South African Family Practice. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 45, No 8 (2003) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk". DN Durrheim ...

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

Science.gov (United States)

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

Relative Risk Appraisal, the September 11 Attacks, and Terrorism-Related Fears

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Randall D.; Bryant, Richard A.; Amsel, Lawrence; Suh, Eun Jung; Cook, Joan M.; Neria, Yuval

2013-01-01

There are now replicated findings that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms related to the September 11, 2001, attacks occurred in large numbers of persons who did not fit the traditional definition of exposure to a traumatic event. These data are not explained by traditional epidemiologic “bull’s eye” disaster models, which assume the psychological effects are narrowly, geographically circumscribed, or by existing models of PTSD onset. In this article, the authors develop a researchable model to explain these and other terrorism-related phenomena by synthesizing research and concepts from the cognitive science, risk appraisal, traumatic stress, and anxiety disorders literatures. They propose the new term relative risk appraisal to capture the psychological function that is the missing link between the event and subjective response in these and other terrorism-related studies to date. Relative risk appraisal highlights the core notion from cognitive science that human perception is an active, multidimensional process, such that for unpredictable societal threats, proximity to the event is only one of several factors that influence behavioral responses. Addressing distortions in relative risk appraisal effectively could reduce individual and societal vulnerability to a wide range of adverse economic and ethnopolitical consequences to terrorist attacks. The authors present ways in which these concepts and related techniques can be helpful in treating persons with September 11– or terrorism-related distress or psychopathology. PMID:17516775

Threshold Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communication for Health Risks Related to Hazardous Ambient Temperature.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yang; Hoppe, Brenda O; Convertino, Matteo

2018-04-10

Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model is used to derive the exposure-response functions between daily maximum heat index and mortality (1998-2014) and morbidity (emergency department visits; 2007-2014). Specific causes considered include cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases, and diabetes. Six extreme temperature thresholds, corresponding to 1st-3rd and 97th-99th percentiles of local exposure history, are examined. All six extreme temperature thresholds capture significantly increased relative risks for all-cause mortality and morbidity. However, the cause-specific analyses reveal heterogeneity. Extreme cold thresholds capture increased mortality and morbidity risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and extreme heat thresholds for renal disease. Percentile-based extreme temperature thresholds are appropriate for initiating ERC targeting the general population. Tailoring ERC by specific causes may protect some but not all individuals with health conditions exacerbated by hazardous ambient temperature exposure. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Urbanization and traffic related exposures as risk factors for Schizophrenia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Mortensen, Preben Bo

2006-01-01

: The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road had a significant effect. The highest risk was found in children living 500-1000 metres from nearest major road (RR=1.30 (95% Confidence Interval: 1.17-1.44). However, when we accounted for the degree of urbanization, the geographical distance...... that traffic related exposures affect schizophrenia risk and that this potential effect is responsible for the urban-rural differences. The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road was used as a proxy variable for traffic related exposures. We used a large population-based sample......BACKGROUND: Urban birth or upbringing increase schizophrenia risk. Though unknown, the causes of these urban-rural differences have been hypothesized to include, e.g., infections, diet, toxic exposures, social class, or an artefact due to selective migration. METHODS: We investigated the hypothesis...

Alternative approaches to risk-based technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.; Liner, R.T.; Lofgren, E.V.

1987-01-01

Four alternative risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications are identified. These are: a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) oriented approach; a reliability goal-oriented approach; an approach based on configuration control; a data-oriented approach. Based on preliminary results, the PRA-oriented approach, which has been developed further than the other approaches, seems to offer a logical, quantitative basis for setting Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) and Surveillance Test Intervals (STIs) for some plant components and systems. The most attractive feature of this approach is that it directly links the AOTs and STIs with the risk associated with the operation of the plant. This would focus the plant operator's and the regulatory agency's attention on the most risk-significant components of the plant. A series of practical issues related to the level of detail and content of the plant PRAs, requirements for the review of these PRAs, and monitoring cf the plant's performance by the regulatory agency must be resolved before the approach could be implemented. Future efforts will examine the other three approaches and their practicality before firm conclusions are drawn regarding the viability of any of these approaches

Review of clinical practice guidelines for the management of LDL-related risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Pamela B; Ballantyne, Christie M; Birtcher, Kim K; Dunn, Steven P; Urbina, Elaine M

2014-07-15

Managing risk related to low-density lipoprotein (LDL) is vital in therapy for patients at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events given its important etiologic role in atherogenesis. Despite decades of research showing reduction of ASCVD risk with multiple approaches to lowering of LDL cholesterol, there continue to be significant gaps in care with inadequate numbers of patients receiving standard of care lipid-lowering therapy. Confusion regarding implementation of the multiple published clinical practice guidelines has been identified as one contributor to suboptimal management of LDL-related risk. This review summarizes the current guidelines for reduction of LDL-related cardiovascular risk provided by a number of major professional societies, which have broad applicability to diverse populations worldwide. Statements have varied in the process and methodology of development of recommendations, the grading system for level and strength of evidence, the inclusion or exclusion of expert opinion, the suggested ASCVD risk assessment tool, the lipoproteins recommended for risk assessment, and the lipoprotein targets of therapy. The similarities and differences among important guidelines in the United States and internationally are discussed, with recommendations for future strategies to improve consistency in approaches to LDL-related ASCVD risk and to reduce gaps in implementation of evidence-based therapies. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Public relations in risk communication: risk pr. The importance of public relations for risk communication; Public Relations in der Risikokommunikation: Risiko-PR. Die Bedeutung von Public Relations fuer die Risikokommunikation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lehmann, K.

2001-07-01

Risks have become a central problem of our time, as is reflected in concepts like 'society at risk' and 'anti-technological attitude', in group protest against risks and against those who cause them, and last but not least in the critical attitude of the media. Against this background, organisations must needs enter the public discussion and be able to communicate professionally and convincingly in order to ensure their own success and further existence. The book describes the basic problems of risk research and risk communications and discusses inhowfar, and how, public relations strategies and instruments can help here. [German] Risiken werden verstaerkt zum Problem unserer Zeit. Das belegen nicht nur Begriffe wie 'Risikogesellschaft' und 'Technikfeindlichkeit', die in letzter Zeit an Bedeutung gewonnen haben, sondern auch und vor allem nachhaltige Proteste von engagierten Gruppierungen gegen Risiken und deren Verursacher oder auch die kritische Berichterstattung der Medien. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist es fuer Organisationen erforderlich, in die oeffentliche Auseinandersetzung um Risiken einzusteigen und hier professionell und ueberzeugend zu kommunizieren, um den Organisationserfolg und Organisationsbestand zu sichern. Die vorliegende Arbeit beschreibt die Grundprobleme der Risikoforschung und Risikokommunikation und diskutiert, ob und inwieweit Public Relations bei der Loesung dieser Probleme helfen koennen, da insbesondere Public Relations gezielt Strategien und Instrumente nutzen, um beispielsweise den Wissensstand der Oeffentlichkeit zu verbessern und den Dialog mit relevanten Teiloeffentlichkeiten zu foerdern. (orig.)

An Empirical Investigation of Risk-Return Relations in Chinese Equity Markets: Evidence from Aggregate and Sectoral Data

OpenAIRE

Thomas C. Chiang; Yuanqing Zhang

2018-01-01

This paper investigates the risk-return relations in Chinese equity markets. Based on a TARCH-M model, evidence shows that stock returns are positively correlated with predictable volatility, supporting the risk-return relation in both aggregate and sectoral markets. Evidence finds a positive relation between stock return and intertemporal downside risk, while controlling for sentiment and liquidity. This study suggests that the U.S. stress risk or the world downside risk should be priced int...

Elite athletes experiences with risk related to cardiac screening

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Jonas Schmidt; Thing, Lone Friis

Society of Cardiology as well as major sports federations such as the International Olympic Committee, however, these recommendations seem to be based on an inadequate empirical foundation, just as the costs of performing cardiac screening on a larger scale seem out of proportion. Additionally, the field...... perspective on risk (Foucault 1988). For most elite athletes participation in cardiac screening is done out of a wish to obtain an acquittal from risks. Symptomatic of the risk society cardiac screening can from an athlete perspective at the same time be seen as an attempt to gain control over......Elite Athletes experiences with risks related to Cardiac Screening Jonas Schmidt Christensen1, Lone Friis Thing1 1University of Copenhagen - Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports (NEXS), Cardiac screening of elite athletes are recommended by both the American Heart Association & the European...

Risk-based configuration control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szikszai, T.

1997-01-01

The presentation discusses the following issues: The Configuration Control; The Risk-based Configuration Control (during power operation mode, and during shutdown mode). PSA requirements. Use of Risk-based Configuration Control System. Configuration Management (basic elements, benefits, information requirements)

An Empirical Investigation of Risk-Return Relations in Chinese Equity Markets: Evidence from Aggregate and Sectoral Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas C. Chiang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the risk-return relations in Chinese equity markets. Based on a TARCH-M model, evidence shows that stock returns are positively correlated with predictable volatility, supporting the risk-return relation in both aggregate and sectoral markets. Evidence finds a positive relation between stock return and intertemporal downside risk, while controlling for sentiment and liquidity. This study suggests that the U.S. stress risk or the world downside risk should be priced into the Chinese stocks. The paper concludes that the risk-return tradeoff is present in the GARCH-in-mean, local downside risk-return, and global risk-return relations.

System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

2013-01-01

During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

Explanatory risk factors in the relations between schizotypy and indicators of suicide risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Jahn, Danielle R; DeVylder, Jordan E; Hilimire, Matthew R

2016-04-30

Schizotypy has been linked to suicide risk, but it is not known whether established suicide-related risk factors mediate this relation. The aim of this study was to assess the mediating effects of depressive symptoms, social anxiety, self-esteem, and intimate disclosure in peer relationships in the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. This aim was tested in 590 young adults using a nonparametric bootstrapping procedure. After inclusion of the mediators, interpersonal schizotypy was no longer directly associated with either suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. Depression and self-esteem mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation. No variables mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and lifetime suicide attempts, and there were no significant direct relations when mediators were included. Schizotypy appears to be a distal risk factor for suicidal behavior; assessing depressive symptoms and self-esteem may provide more proximal information about suicide risk, and may be targets for mitigating suicide risk in individuals with schizotypy. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

The Relationship between Musculoskeletal Symptoms and Work-related Risk Factors in Hotel Workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jin Woo; Lee, Ju Jong; Mun, Hyeon Je; Lee, Kyung-Jae; Kim, Joo Ja

2013-10-11

focused on structural risk factors in the working environment, such as the gender-based division of labor, shift work and labor intensity, that demonstrated a statistically significant correlation with the work-related musculoskeletal symptoms of hotel workers. Both men and women reported different prevalence rates of work-related musculoskeletal symptoms among different departments. This could indicate that a gender-based division of labor produces different ergonomic risk factors for each gender group. However, only females displayed a statistically significant correlation between shift work and labor intensity and musculoskeletal symptoms. Thus, minimizing ergonomic risk factors alone does not suffice to effectively prevent musculoskeletal diseases among hotel workers. Instead, work assignments should be based on gender, department, working hours and work intensity should be adjusted to address multi-dimensional musculoskeletal risk factors. In addition, an approach that seeks to minimize shift work is needed to reduce the incidence of musculoskeletal disorders.

Some risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed El Hachemi Mazighi

2004-01-01

Traditionally guided by long-term contracts, the international natural gas trade is experiencing new methods of operating, based on the short term and more flexibility. Today, indeed, the existence of uncommitted quantities of natural gas, combined with gas price discrepancies among different regions of the world, gives room for the expansion of the spot-trading of gas. The main objective of this paper is to discuss three fundamental risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas: volume risk, price risk and infrastructure risk. The defenders Of globalisation argue that the transition from the long-term to the short-term trading of natural gas is mainly a question of access to gas reserves, decreasing costs of gas liquefaction, the building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fleets and regasification facilities and third-party access to the infrastructure. This process needs to be as short as possible, so that the risks related to the transition process will disappear rapidly. On the other hand, the detractors of globalisation put the emphasis on the complexity of the gas value chain and on the fact that eliminating long- term contracts increases the risks inherent to the international natural gas business. In this paper, we try to untangle and assess the risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas. Our main conclusions are: the short-term trading of gas is far from riskless; volume risk requires stock-building in both consuming and producing countries. (author)

Modelling the genetic risk in age-related macular degeneration.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Felix Grassmann

Full Text Available Late-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD is a common sight-threatening disease of the central retina affecting approximately 1 in 30 Caucasians. Besides age and smoking, genetic variants from several gene loci have reproducibly been associated with this condition and likely explain a large proportion of disease. Here, we developed a genetic risk score (GRS for AMD based on 13 risk variants from eight gene loci. The model exhibited good discriminative accuracy, area-under-curve (AUC of the receiver-operating characteristic of 0.820, which was confirmed in a cross-validation approach. Noteworthy, younger AMD patients aged below 75 had a significantly higher mean GRS (1.87, 95% CI: 1.69-2.05 than patients aged 75 and above (1.45, 95% CI: 1.36-1.54. Based on five equally sized GRS intervals, we present a risk classification with a relative AMD risk of 64.0 (95% CI: 14.11-1131.96 for individuals in the highest category (GRS 3.44-5.18, 0.5% of the general population compared to subjects with the most common genetic background (GRS -0.05-1.70, 40.2% of general population. The highest GRS category identifies AMD patients with a sensitivity of 7.9% and a specificity of 99.9% when compared to the four lower categories. Modeling a general population around 85 years of age, 87.4% of individuals in the highest GRS category would be expected to develop AMD by that age. In contrast, only 2.2% of individuals in the two lowest GRS categories which represent almost 50% of the general population are expected to manifest AMD. Our findings underscore the large proportion of AMD cases explained by genetics particularly for younger AMD patients. The five-category risk classification could be useful for therapeutic stratification or for diagnostic testing purposes once preventive treatment is available.

Risk related behaviour under different ambient scent conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alina Gagarina

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The article analyses the effect of two ambient scents (peppermint and vanilla and their intensiveness on risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to identify the relationship of ambient scent type and intensiveness with risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Methodology/methods: 2×2 factorial experiment with control group was run. Ambient scent type (vanilla vs. peppermint and intensiveness (8 (1mg vs. 16 sprays (2mg of scent concentrate in the same room were manipulated as between subject variables. Risk aversion, effect of anchoring heuristic on bidding, and affect (risk and benefit heuristics were tracked as dependent variables. Scientific aim: To identify whether ambient scent type and intensiveness have effect on risk related behaviour. Findings: Evidence suggests that there are effects of ambient scent on risk related behaviour, thus fulfilling the missing gap to relate ambient environment to decision making heuristics when risks are involved. However, not all heuristics were affected by experimental conditions. Subjects were bidding significantly higher amounts under low anchor conditions, when peppermint scent was around (if compared to vanilla group. Affect risk was perceived as lower in peppermint ambient scent conditions, if compared to the control group. Intensity of ambient scent also had influence on affect risk: subjects perceived less risk under high scent intensity conditions. Conclusions: By manipulating ambient scent, marketers may reduce or increase consumers risk perception and behaviour and as a consequence influence their purchase decisions. Marketers could use peppermint scent in high intensiveness in the situations where they want consumers to undertake higher risks (expensive purchases, gambling, insurance, since stakes were higher under peppermint ambient scent condition

Vitamin E and risk of age-related cataract: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yufei; Jiang, Wenjie; Xie, Zhutian; Wu, Wenlong; Zhang, Dongfeng

2015-10-01

We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship between vitamin E and age-related cataract (ARC). The fixed- or random-effect model was selected based on heterogeneity. Meta-regression was used to explore potential sources of between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was evaluated using Begg's test. The dose-response relationship was assessed by a restricted cubic spline model. Relevant studies were identified by a search of PubMed and the Cochrane Library to May 2014, without language restrictions. Studies involved samples of people of all ages. Dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high serum tocopherol levels were significantly associated with decreased risk of ARC, the pooled relative risk was 0·73 (95% CI 0·58, 0·92), 0·86 (95% CI 0·75, 0·99) and 0·77 (95% CI 0·66, 0·91), respectively. Supplemental vitamin E intake was non-significantly associated with ARC risk (relative risk=0·92; 95% CI 0·78, 1·07). The findings from dose-response analysis showed evidence of a non-linear association between dietary vitamin E intake and ARC. The risk of ARC decreased with dietary vitamin E intake from 7 mg/d (relative risk=0·94; 95% CI 0·90, 0·97). The findings of the meta-analysis indicated that dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high level of serum tocopherol might be significantly associated with reduced ARC risk.

Risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration.

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Michael L; Francis, Peter J; Ferris, Frederick L; Hamon, Sara C; Clemons, Traci E

2011-12-01

To design a risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) incorporating phenotypic, demographic, environmental, and genetic risk factors. We evaluated longitudinal data from 2846 participants in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. At baseline, these individuals had all levels of AMD, ranging from none to unilateral advanced AMD (neovascular or geographic atrophy). Follow-up averaged 9.3 years. We performed a Cox proportional hazards analysis with demographic, environmental, phenotypic, and genetic covariates and constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. Performance of the model was evaluated using the C statistic and the Brier score and externally validated in participants in the Complications of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Prevention Trial. The final model included the following independent variables: age, smoking history, family history of AMD (first-degree member), phenotype based on a modified Age-Related Eye Disease Study simple scale score, and genetic variants CFH Y402H and ARMS2 A69S. The model did well on performance measures, with very good discrimination (C statistic = 0.872) and excellent calibration and overall performance (Brier score at 5 years = 0.08). Successful external validation was performed, and a risk assessment tool was designed for use with or without the genetic component. We constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. The model performed well on measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance and was successfully externally validated. This risk assessment tool is available for online use.

Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms.

Science.gov (United States)

van Asseldonk, M A P M; Velthuis, A G J

2014-02-01

Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process standards. To select farms for an audit that present higher risks, a statistical analysis was conducted to test the relationship between the outcome of farm audits and bulk milk laboratory results before the audit. The analysis comprised 28,358 farm audits and all conducted laboratory tests of bulk milk samples 12 mo before the audit. The overall outcome of each farm audit was classified as approved or rejected. Laboratory results included somatic cell count (SCC), total bacterial count (TBC), antimicrobial drug residues (ADR), level of butyric acid spores (BAB), freezing point depression (FPD), level of free fatty acids (FFA), and cleanliness of the milk (CLN). The bulk milk laboratory results were significantly related to audit outcomes. Rejected audits are likely to occur on dairy farms with higher mean levels of SCC, TBC, ADR, and BAB. Moreover, in a multivariable model, maxima for TBC, SCC, and FPD as well as standard deviations for TBC and FPD are risk factors for negative audit outcomes. The efficiency curve of a risk-based selection approach, on the basis of the derived regression results, dominated the current random selection approach. To capture 25, 50, or 75% of the population with poor process standards (i.e., audit outcome of rejected), respectively, only 8, 20, or 47% of the population had to be sampled based on a risk-based selection approach. Milk quality information can thus be used to preselect high-risk farms to be audited more frequently. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk of ovarian cancer in women with first-degree relatives with cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soegaard, Marie; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Jensen, Allan

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of ovarian cancer in women with first-degree relatives with cancer at one of the four most frequent hereditary sites based on validated cancer diagnoses and to examine the association according to age at diagnosis of ovarian cancer and histology. DESIGN: Case......-control study. SETTING AND POPULATION: First-degree relatives of 554 women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and 1,564 controls were included. METHODS: Analyses were performed using multiple logistic regression models. RESULTS: Ovarian cancer in a first-degree relative was significantly associated...... with increased risk of ovarian cancer (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.4-4.1 (mother or sister)). Ovarian cancer in a first-degree relative appeared to be a stronger risk factor for early-onset (cancer than late-onset (OR, 5.3; 95% CI, 2.0-14.1 vs. OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.0-3.4). The positive association...

Relative and absolute risk in epidemiology and health physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldsmith, R.; Peterson, H.T. Jr.

1983-01-01

The health risk from ionizing radiation commonly is expressed in two forms: (1) the relative risk, which is the percentage increase in natural disease rate and (2) the absolute or attributable risk which represents the difference between the natural rate and the rate associated with the agent in question. Relative risk estimates for ionizing radiation generally are higher than those expressed as the absolute risk. This raises the question of which risk estimator is the most appropriate under different conditions. The absolute risk has generally been used for radiation risk assessment, although mathematical combinations such as the arithmetic or geometric mean of both the absolute and relative risks, have also been used. Combinations of the two risk estimators are not valid because the absolute and relative risk are not independent variables. Both human epidemiologic studies and animal experimental data can be found to illustrate the functional relationship between the natural cancer risk and the risk associated with radiation. This implies that the radiation risk estimate derived from one population may not be appropriate for predictions in another population, unless it is adjusted for the difference in the natural disease incidence between the two populations

76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-11

... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

Assessment of Credit Risk Approaches in Relation with Competitiveness Increase of the Banking Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cipovová Eva

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The article is focused on a presentation and analysis of selected methods of credit risk management in relation with competitiveness increase of the banking sector. The article is defined credit risk approaches under the Basel III gradually. Aim of this contribution constitutes various methods of credit risk management and effects of their usage on regulatory capital amount in respect of corporate exposures. Optimal equity amount in relation to the risk portfolio presents an essential prerequisite of performance and competitiveness growth of commercial banks. Gradually capital requirements using Standardized Approach and Internal Based Approach in a case of used and unused techniques of credit risk reduce has been quantified. We presume that sophisticated approach means significant saving for bank’s equity which increases competitiveness of banking sector also. Within the article, quantification of capital savings in case of Standardized (with and without assigned external ratings and Foundation Internal Based Approach at the selected credit portfolio has been effected.

Association of bariatric surgery with risk of acute care use for hypertension-related disease in obese adults: population-based self-controlled case series study.

Science.gov (United States)

Shimada, Yuichi J; Tsugawa, Yusuke; Iso, Hiroyasu; Brown, David F M; Hasegawa, Kohei

2017-08-23

Hypertension carries a large societal burden. Obesity is known as a risk factor for hypertension. However, little is known as to whether weight loss interventions reduce the risk of hypertension-related adverse events, such as acute care use (emergency department [ED] visit and/or unplanned hospitalization). We used bariatric surgery as an instrument for investigating the effect of large weight reduction on the risk of acute care use for hypertension-related disease in obese adults with hypertension. We performed a self-controlled case series study of obese patients with hypertension who underwent bariatric surgery using population-based ED and inpatient databases that recorded every bariatric surgery, ED visit, and hospitalization in three states (California, Florida, and Nebraska) from 2005 to 2011. The primary outcome was acute care use for hypertension-related disease. We used conditional logistic regression to compare each patient's risk of the outcome event during sequential 12-month periods, using pre-surgery months 13-24 as the reference period. We identified 980 obese patients with hypertension who underwent bariatric surgery. The median age was 48 years (interquartile range, 40-56 years), 74% were female, and 55% were non-Hispanic white. During the reference period, 17.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.4-20.2%) had a primary outcome event. The risk remained unchanged in the subsequent 12-month pre-surgery period (18.2% [95% CI, 15.7-20.6%]; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.02 [95% CI, 0.83-1.27]; P = 0.83). In the first 12-month period after bariatric surgery, the risk significantly decreased (10.5% [8.6-12.4%]; aOR 0.58 [95% CI, 0.45-0.74]; P bariatric surgery (12.9% [95% CI, 10.8-15.0%]; aOR 0.71 [95% CI, 0.57-0.90]; P = 0.005). By contrast, there was no significant reduction in the risk among obese patients who underwent non-bariatric surgery (i.e., cholecystectomy, hysterectomy, spinal fusion, or mastectomy). In this population-based study of

Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

2017-09-06

Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tarp Hansen, Anette; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

2017-01-01

The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Anette Tarp; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

2017-01-01

The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

Events per variable for risk differences and relative risks using pseudo-observations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Stefan Nygaard; Andersen, Per Kragh; Parner, Erik Thorlund

2014-01-01

A method based on pseudo-observations has been proposed for direct regression modeling of functionals of interest with right-censored data, including the survival function, the restricted mean and the cumulative incidence function in competing risks. The models, once the pseudo-observations have...... been computed, can be fitted using standard generalized estimating equation software. Regression models can however yield problematic results if the number of covariates is large in relation to the number of events observed. Guidelines of events per variable are often used in practice. These rules...

Regular physical activity modifies smoking-related lung function decline and reduces risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a population-based cohort study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Garcia-Aymerich, J; Lange, Peter; Benet, M

2007-01-01

RATIONALE: We have previously reported that regular physical activity reduces risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation. We hypothesized that higher levels of regular physical activity could reduce the risk of COPD by modifying smoking-related lung function decline....... OBJECTIVE: To estimate the longitudinal association between regular physical activity and FEV(1) and FVC decline and COPD risk. METHODS: A population-based sample (n = 6,790) was recruited and assessed with respect to physical activity, smoking, lung function, and other covariates, in Copenhagen in 1981....../yr of FEV(1), P-for-trend = 0.006, and +2.6 and +7.7 ml/yr of FVC, P-for-trend function decline. Active smokers with moderate to high physical activity had...

RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

OpenAIRE

Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

2011-01-01

Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based Requirements Prioritization method (RiskREP) that extends misuse case-based methods with IT architecture based risk assessment and countermeasure definition and prioritization. Countermeasure prioritizati...

12 CFR 567.6 - Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital credit risk-weight... CAPITAL Regulatory Capital Requirements § 567.6 Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories. (a) Risk...)(2) of this section), plus risk-weighted recourse obligations, direct credit substitutes, and certain...

A method for determining weights for excess relative risk and excess absolute risk when applied in the calculation of lifetime risk of cancer from radiation exposure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walsh, Linda [Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Department of Radiation Protection and Health, Oberschleissheim (Germany); University of Manchester, The Faculty of Medical and Human Sciences, Manchester (United Kingdom); Schneider, Uwe [University of Zurich, Vetsuisse Faculty, Zurich (Switzerland); Radiotherapy Hirslanden AG, Aarau (Switzerland)

2013-03-15

Radiation-related risks of cancer can be transported from one population to another population at risk, for the purpose of calculating lifetime risks from radiation exposure. Transfer via excess relative risks (ERR) or excess absolute risks (EAR) or a mixture of both (i.e., from the life span study (LSS) of Japanese atomic bomb survivors) has been done in the past based on qualitative weighting. Consequently, the values of the weights applied and the method of application of the weights (i.e., as additive or geometric weighted means) have varied both between reports produced at different times by the same regulatory body and also between reports produced at similar times by different regulatory bodies. Since the gender and age patterns are often markedly different between EAR and ERR models, it is useful to have an evidence-based method for determining the relative goodness of fit of such models to the data. This paper identifies a method, using Akaike model weights, which could aid expert judgment and be applied to help to achieve consistency of approach and quantitative evidence-based results in future health risk assessments. The results of applying this method to recent LSS cancer incidence models are that the relative EAR weighting by cancer solid cancer site, on a scale of 0-1, is zero for breast and colon, 0.02 for all solid, 0.03 for lung, 0.08 for liver, 0.15 for thyroid, 0.18 for bladder and 0.93 for stomach. The EAR weighting for female breast cancer increases from 0 to 0.3, if a generally observed change in the trend between female age-specific breast cancer incidence rates and attained age, associated with menopause, is accounted for in the EAR model. Application of this method to preferred models from a study of multi-model inference from many models fitted to the LSS leukemia mortality data, results in an EAR weighting of 0. From these results it can be seen that lifetime risk transfer is most highly weighted by EAR only for stomach cancer. However

Risk Factors for Developing Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders during Dairy Farming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sayed Mohammad Taghavi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Dairy farming work involves frequent use of poor postures. These postures may increase the risk of developing musculoskeletal disorders among dairy workers. Objective: To assess postural load during performance of various tasks related to dairy farming. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on a dairy farm in Iran. In order to assess postural load, tasks related to dairy farming were divided into 3 categories: feeding, milking, and manure disposal. Each task was then divided into its constituent work subdivisions (tasks. Finally, the working posture for each work subdivision was evaluated using Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA. Results: Based on the results from the REBA score, the poorest risk scores (risk level 4 were associated with the following tasks: (1 manure disposal, (2 filling feed bags, and (3 pouring milk into a bucket. Other tasks such as filling corn containers, pouring corn into the milling machine, preparing the feed, pouring food into mangers, attaching the milking machine, and pouring milk from a bucket into a tank imposed high risk (risk level 3. The risk for the tasks of washing and disinfecting the udders were assessed as medium risks. Conclusion: The risk levels associated with most of the tasks on the studied farm were unacceptably high. Therefore, it is essential to implement ergonomic interventions to reduce risk levels of the tasks.

Risk Factors for Developing Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders during Dairy Farming.

Science.gov (United States)

Taghavi, Sayed Mohammad; Mokarami, Hamidreza; Ahmadi, Omran; Stallones, Lorann; Abbaspour, Asghar; Marioryad, Hossein

2017-01-01

Dairy farming work involves frequent use of poor postures. These postures may increase the risk of developing musculoskeletal disorders among dairy workers. To assess postural load during performance of various tasks related to dairy farming. This cross-sectional study was conducted on a dairy farm in Iran. In order to assess postural load, tasks related to dairy farming were divided into 3 categories: feeding, milking, and manure disposal. Each task was then divided into its constituent work subdivisions (tasks). Finally, the working posture for each work subdivision was evaluated using Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). Based on the results from the REBA score, the poorest risk scores (risk level 4) were associated with the following tasks: (1) manure disposal, (2) filling feed bags, and (3) pouring milk into a bucket. Other tasks such as filling corn containers, pouring corn into the milling machine, preparing the feed, pouring food into mangers, attaching the milking machine, and pouring milk from a bucket into a tank imposed high risk (risk level 3). The risk for the tasks of washing and disinfecting the udders were assessed as medium risks. The risk levels associated with most of the tasks on the studied farm were unacceptably high. Therefore, it is essential to implement ergonomic interventions to reduce risk levels of the tasks.

Prostate cancer risk prediction based on complete prostate cancer family history

OpenAIRE

Albright, Frederick; Stephenson, Robert A; Agarwal, Neeraj; Teerlink, Craig C; Lowrance, William T; Farnham, James M; Albright, Lisa A Cannon

2014-01-01

Background Prostate cancer (PC) relative risks (RRs) are typically estimated based on status of close relatives or presence of any affected relatives. This study provides RR estimates using extensive and specific PC family history. Methods A retrospective population-based study was undertaken to estimate RRs for PC based on complete family history of PC. A total of 635,443 males, all with ancestral genealogy data, were analyzed. RRs for PC were determined based upon PC rates estimated from ma...

High-dose B-vitamin supplements and risk for age-related cataract: a population-based prospective study of men and women.

Science.gov (United States)

Selin, Jinjin Z; Lindblad, Birgitta E; Bottai, Matteo; Morgenstern, Ralf; Wolk, Alicja

2017-07-01

Previous studies that have investigated the association between B-vitamin supplement use and risk for cataract yield conflicting results. The aim of this study was to examine the association between use of high-dose B-vitamin supplements (approximately 10 times recommended daily intake) and risk for age-related cataract in a population-based prospective study of 13 757 women from the Swedish Mammography Cohort and 22 823 men from the Cohort of Swedish Men. Dietary supplement use and potential confounders were assessed using a questionnaire at baseline. Information on cataract diagnosis and extraction was obtained through linkage to registers. During the follow-up period between January 1998 and December 2011, we identified 8395 cataract cases (3851 for women and 4544 for men). The use of B vitamins plus other supplements and B vitamins only was associated with 9 % (95 % CI 2, 17) and 27 % (95 % CI 12, 43) increased risk for cataract, respectively. The hazard ratios for use of B vitamins only and risk for cataract stratified by different age groups were as follows: B-vitamin supplements was associated with an increased risk for cataract. This association might be confined to younger participants.

Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

1995-01-01

The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

Risk-based maintenance-Techniques and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arunraj, N.S.; Maiti, J.

2007-01-01

Plant and equipment, however well designed, will not remain safe or reliable if it is not maintained. The general objective of the maintenance process is to make use of the knowledge of failures and accidents to achieve the possible safety with the lowest possible cost. The concept of risk-based maintenance was developed to inspect the high-risk components usually with greater frequency and thoroughness and to maintain in a greater manner, to achieve tolerable risk criteria. Risk-based maintenance methodology provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making to reduce the probability of failure of equipment and the consequences of failure. In this paper, the risk analysis and risk-based maintenance methodologies were identified and classified into suitable classes. The factors affecting the quality of risk analysis were identified and analyzed. The applications, input data and output data were studied to understand their functioning and efficiency. The review showed that there is no unique way to perform risk analysis and risk-based maintenance. The use of suitable techniques and methodologies, careful investigation during the risk analysis phase, and its detailed and structured results are necessary to make proper risk-based maintenance decisions

Risk factors for visually disabling age-related cataracts in Ibadan ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Objective: To assess the risk factors for visually disabling age related cataracts. Methods: A hospital based case-control study carried out at the university College Hospital Ibadan between May 1996 and March 1997. Three hundred and eighty three cases were matched for age and sex with five hundred and ninety nine ...

Risk based surveillance for vector borne diseases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bødker, Rene

of samples and hence early detection of outbreaks. Models for vector borne diseases in Denmark have demonstrated dramatic variation in outbreak risk during the season and between years. The Danish VetMap project aims to make these risk based surveillance estimates available on the veterinarians smart phones...... in Northern Europe. This model approach may be used as a basis for risk based surveillance. In risk based surveillance limited resources for surveillance are targeted at geographical areas most at risk and only when the risk is high. This makes risk based surveillance a cost effective alternative...... sample to a diagnostic laboratory. Risk based surveillance models may reduce this delay. An important feature of risk based surveillance models is their ability to continuously communicate the level of risk to veterinarians and hence increase awareness when risk is high. This is essential for submission...

Medication-related risk factors associated with health-related quality of life among community-dwelling elderly in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Sha; Meng, Long; Qiu, Feng; Yang, Jia-Dan; Sun, Shusen

2018-01-01

Previous studies have demonstrated that medication adherence has an impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). However, other medication-related factors that may influence HRQoL have not been extensively studied, especially factors based on the Medication-Risk Questionnaire (MRQ), and such studies are mostly done in Western countries. Our objective was to explore risk factors associated with HRQoL among community-dwelling elderly with chronic diseases in mainland China, especially the medication-related risk factors regarding MRQ. The study was conducted in a community health service center through surveys to eligible patients. The main outcomes of HRQoL were assessed by the EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) scale and EQ-visual analog scale (EQ-VAS). Medication-related risk factors according to MRQ associated with HRQoL were identified using a multiple linear regression. A total of 311 patients were analyzed, averaging 71.19±5.33 years, and 68.8% were female. The mean EQ-5D index was 0.72±0.09, and the mean EQ-VAS score was 71.37±11.97. The most prevalent problem was pain/discomfort, and 90.0% believed that they could take care of themselves without any problems. Sex, age, educational level, frailty, function status, and certain medication-related factors regarding MRQ were found to be significant factors impacting the HRQoL. A multivariate analysis showed that MRQ factors of polypharmacy, multimorbidity, feeling difficultly with taking medicines as prescribed, and taking medicines with narrow therapeutic index had negative impacts on the quality of life. Patient's internal characteristics and medication-related risk factors according to MRQ were associated with quality of life. The results of the MRQ is an indicator of quality of life that can identify patients who need interventions.

Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

1981-07-01

Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected

Familial risk of epilepsy: a population-based study

Science.gov (United States)

Peljto, Anna L.; Barker-Cummings, Christie; Vasoli, Vincent M.; Leibson, Cynthia L.; Hauser, W. Allen; Buchhalter, Jeffrey R.

2014-01-01

Almost all previous studies of familial risk of epilepsy have had potentially serious methodological limitations. Our goal was to address these limitations and provide more rigorous estimates of familial risk in a population-based study. We used the unique resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to identify all 660 Rochester, Minnesota residents born in 1920 or later with incidence of epilepsy from 1935–94 (probands) and their 2439 first-degree relatives who resided in Olmsted County. We assessed incidence of epilepsy in relatives by comprehensive review of the relatives’ medical records, and estimated age-specific cumulative incidence and standardized incidence ratios for epilepsy in relatives compared with the general population, according to proband and relative characteristics. Among relatives of all probands, cumulative incidence of epilepsy to age 40 was 4.7%, and risk was increased 3.3-fold (95% confidence interval 2.75–5.99) compared with population incidence. Risk was increased to the greatest extent in relatives of probands with idiopathic generalized epilepsies (standardized incidence ratio 6.0) and epilepsies associated with intellectual or motor disability presumed present from birth, which we denoted ‘prenatal/developmental cause’ (standardized incidence ratio 4.3). Among relatives of probands with epilepsy without identified cause (including epilepsies classified as ‘idiopathic’ or ‘unknown cause’), risk was significantly increased for epilepsy of prenatal/developmental cause (standardized incidence ratio 4.1). Similarly, among relatives of probands with prenatal/developmental cause, risk was significantly increased for epilepsies without identified cause (standardized incidence ratio 3.8). In relatives of probands with generalized epilepsy, standardized incidence ratios were 8.3 (95% confidence interval 2.93–15.31) for generalized epilepsy and 2.5 (95% confidence interval 0.92–4.00) for focal epilepsy. In relatives of

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Science.gov (United States)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-01-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

2016-04-19

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Reducing exposure to trust-related risks to avoid self-blame.

Science.gov (United States)

Effron, Daniel A; Miller, Dale T

2011-02-01

Three studies demonstrated that anticipated self-blame elicits more conservative decisions about risks that require trust than about otherwise economically identical risks that do not. Participants were more reluctant to invest money in a company when it risked failure due to fraud versus low consumer demand (Study 1), and to risk points in an economic game when its outcome ostensibly depended on another participant versus chance (Studies 2 and 3). These effects were mediated by anticipated self-blame (Studies 1 and 2). Additionally, participants who actually experienced a loss felt more self-blame when the loss violated their trust and became even more conservative in subsequent risk decisions relative to participants whose loss did not violate their trust (Study 3). No support emerged for alternative explanations based on either the perceived probability of incurring a loss or an aversion to losses that profit others. The motivational power of trust violations is discussed.

Assessing the risk of work-related international travel.

Science.gov (United States)

Druckman, Myles; Harber, Philip; Liu, Yihang; Quigley, Robert L

2014-11-01

To identify factors affecting the likelihood of requiring medical services during international business trips. Data from more than 800,000 international trips and medical assistance cases provided to 48 multinational corporations in 2009. Travel destination countries were grouped into four a priori risk-related categories. Travel to "low" medical risk countries in aggregate accounted for more hospitalizations and medical evacuations than travel to "high" medical risk countries. Nevertheless, the risk per trip was much higher for travel to higher medical risk countries. Corporations with employees on international travel should allocate sufficient resources to manage and ideally prevent medical issues during business travel. Travel medicine must focus on more than infectious diseases, and programs are necessary for both high- and low-risk regions. Improved understanding of travel-related needs determines resource allocation and risk mitigation efforts.

Risk-based prioritization method for the classification of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yu; Lian, Xin-Ying; Jiang, Yong-Hai; Xi, Bei-Dou; He, Xiao-Song

2017-11-01

Agricultural regions are a significant source of groundwater pesticide pollution. To ensure that agricultural regions with a significantly high risk of groundwater pesticide contamination are properly managed, a risk-based ranking method related to groundwater pesticide contamination is needed. In the present paper, a risk-based prioritization method for the classification of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions was established. The method encompasses 3 phases, including indicator selection, characterization, and classification. In the risk ranking index system employed here, 17 indicators involving the physicochemical properties, environmental behavior characteristics, pesticide application methods, and inherent vulnerability of groundwater in the agricultural region were selected. The boundary of each indicator was determined using K-means cluster analysis based on a survey of a typical agricultural region and the physical and chemical properties of 300 typical pesticides. The total risk characterization was calculated by multiplying the risk value of each indicator, which could effectively avoid the subjectivity of index weight calculation and identify the main factors associated with the risk. The results indicated that the risk for groundwater pesticide contamination from agriculture in a region could be ranked into 4 classes from low to high risk. This method was applied to an agricultural region in Jiangsu Province, China, and it showed that this region had a relatively high risk for groundwater contamination from pesticides, and that the pesticide application method was the primary factor contributing to the relatively high risk. The risk ranking method was determined to be feasible, valid, and able to provide reference data related to the risk management of groundwater pesticide pollution from agricultural regions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:1052-1059. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Some risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazighi, Ahmed El Hachemi

2004-01-01

Traditionally guided by long-term contracts, the international natural gas trade is experiencing new methods of operating, based on the short term and more flexibility. Today, indeed, the existence of uncommitted quantities of natural gas, combined with gas price discrepancies among different regions of the world, gives room for the expansion of the spot-trading of gas. The main objective of this paper is to discuss three fundamental risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas: volume risk, price risk and infrastructure risk. The defenders of globalisation argue that the transition from the long-term to the short-term trading of natural gas is mainly a question of access to gas reserves, decreasing costs of gas liquefaction, the building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fleets and regasification facilities and third-party access to the infrastructure. This process needs to be as short as possible, so that the risks related to the transition process will disappear rapidly. On the other hand, the detractors of globalisation put the emphasis on the complexity of the gas value chain and on the fact that eliminating long-term contracts increases the risks inherent to the international natural gas business. In this paper, we try to untangle and assess the risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas. Our main conclusions are: the short-term trading of gas is far from riskless; volume risk requires stock-building in both consuming and producing countries; price risk, through the high volatility for gas, induces an increase in options prices; there is no evidence to suggest that money-lenders' appetite for financing gas infrastructure projects will continue in a short-term trading system. This would be a threat to consumers' security of supply. (Author)

Method for evaluation of risk due to seismic related design and construction errors based on past reactor experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez Cuesta, M.; Okrent, D.

1985-01-01

This paper proposes a methodology for quantification of risk due to seismic related design and construction errors in nuclear power plants, based on information available on errors discovered in the past. For the purposes of this paper, an error is defined as any event that causes the seismic safety margins of a nuclear power plant to be smaller than implied by current regulatory requirements and industry common practice. Also, the actual reduction in the safety margins caused by the error will be called a deficiency. The method is based on a theoretical model of errors, called a deficiency logic diagram. First, an ultimate cause is present. This ultimate cause is consumated as a specific instance, called originating error. As originating errors may occur in actions to be applied a number of times, a deficiency generation system may be involved. Quality assurance activities will hopefully identify most of these deficiencies, requesting their disposition. However, the quality assurance program is not perfect and some operating plant deficiencies may persist, causing different levels of impact to the plant logic. The paper provides a way of extrapolating information about errors discovered in plants under construction in order to assess the risk due to errors that have not been discovered

Management of Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion in Risk-Based Inspection Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skovhus, Torben Lund; Andersen, Erlend S.; Hillier, Elisabeth

2018-01-01

Operating offshore oil and gas production facilities is often associated with high risk. To manage the risk, operators commonly use aids to support decision making in the establishment of a maintenance and inspection strategy. Risk-based inspection (RBI) analysis is widely used in the offshore...... industry as a means to justify the inspection strategy adopted. The RBI analysis is a decision-making technique that enables asset managers to identify the risk related to failure of their most critical systems and components, with an effect on safety, environmental, and business-related issues. Risk...... influenced corrosion (MIC) is a degradation mechanism that has received increased attention from corrosion engineers and asset operators in the past decades. In this paper, the most recent models that have been developed to assess the impact of MIC on asset integrity will be presented and discussed. From...

People at High Risk of Developing Flu-Related Complications

Science.gov (United States)

... Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other People at High Risk of Developing Flu–Related Complications ... related complications if they get sick with influenza. People at High Risk for Developing Flu-Related Complications ...

Risk-based and deterministic regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, L.E.; Brown, N.W.

1995-07-01

Both risk-based and deterministic methods are used for regulating the nuclear industry to protect the public safety and health from undue risk. The deterministic method is one where performance standards are specified for each kind of nuclear system or facility. The deterministic performance standards address normal operations and design basis events which include transient and accident conditions. The risk-based method uses probabilistic risk assessment methods to supplement the deterministic one by (1) addressing all possible events (including those beyond the design basis events), (2) using a systematic, logical process for identifying and evaluating accidents, and (3) considering alternative means to reduce accident frequency and/or consequences. Although both deterministic and risk-based methods have been successfully applied, there is need for a better understanding of their applications and supportive roles. This paper describes the relationship between the two methods and how they are used to develop and assess regulations in the nuclear industry. Preliminary guidance is suggested for determining the need for using risk based methods to supplement deterministic ones. However, it is recommended that more detailed guidance and criteria be developed for this purpose

Development of risk-based nanomaterial groups for occupational exposure control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuempel, E. D.; Castranova, V.; Geraci, C. L.; Schulte, P. A.

2012-01-01

Given the almost limitless variety of nanomaterials, it will be virtually impossible to assess the possible occupational health hazard of each nanomaterial individually. The development of science-based hazard and risk categories for nanomaterials is needed for decision-making about exposure control practices in the workplace. A possible strategy would be to select representative (benchmark) materials from various mode of action (MOA) classes, evaluate the hazard and develop risk estimates, and then apply a systematic comparison of new nanomaterials with the benchmark materials in the same MOA class. Poorly soluble particles are used here as an example to illustrate quantitative risk assessment methods for possible benchmark particles and occupational exposure control groups, given mode of action and relative toxicity. Linking such benchmark particles to specific exposure control bands would facilitate the translation of health hazard and quantitative risk information to the development of effective exposure control practices in the workplace. A key challenge is obtaining sufficient dose–response data, based on standard testing, to systematically evaluate the nanomaterials’ physical–chemical factors influencing their biological activity. Categorization processes involve both science-based analyses and default assumptions in the absence of substance-specific information. Utilizing data and information from related materials may facilitate initial determinations of exposure control systems for nanomaterials.

Development of risk-based nanomaterial groups for occupational exposure control

Science.gov (United States)

Kuempel, E. D.; Castranova, V.; Geraci, C. L.; Schulte, P. A.

2012-09-01

Given the almost limitless variety of nanomaterials, it will be virtually impossible to assess the possible occupational health hazard of each nanomaterial individually. The development of science-based hazard and risk categories for nanomaterials is needed for decision-making about exposure control practices in the workplace. A possible strategy would be to select representative (benchmark) materials from various mode of action (MOA) classes, evaluate the hazard and develop risk estimates, and then apply a systematic comparison of new nanomaterials with the benchmark materials in the same MOA class. Poorly soluble particles are used here as an example to illustrate quantitative risk assessment methods for possible benchmark particles and occupational exposure control groups, given mode of action and relative toxicity. Linking such benchmark particles to specific exposure control bands would facilitate the translation of health hazard and quantitative risk information to the development of effective exposure control practices in the workplace. A key challenge is obtaining sufficient dose-response data, based on standard testing, to systematically evaluate the nanomaterials' physical-chemical factors influencing their biological activity. Categorization processes involve both science-based analyses and default assumptions in the absence of substance-specific information. Utilizing data and information from related materials may facilitate initial determinations of exposure control systems for nanomaterials.

Practical risk-based decision making: Good decisions made efficiently

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haire, M.J.; Guthrie, V.; Walker, D.; Singer, R.

1995-01-01

The Robotics and Process Systems Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Westinghouse Savannah River Company have teamed with JBF Associates, Inc. to address risk-based robotic planning. The objective of the project is to provide systematic, risk-based relative comparisons of competing alternatives for solving clean-up problems at DOE facilities. This paper presents the methodology developed, describes the software developed to efficiently apply the methodology, and discusses the results of initial applications for DOE. The paper also addresses current work in applying the approach to problems in other industries (including an example from the hydrocarbon processing industry)

The evolution of risk perceptions related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy--Canadian consumer and producer behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jun; Goddard, Ellen

2011-01-01

In this study the dynamics of risk perceptions related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) held by Canadian consumers and cow-calf producers were evaluated. Since the first domestic case of BSE in 2003, Canadian consumers and cow-calf producers have needed to make decisions on whether or not their purchasing/production behavior should change. Such changes in their behavior may relate to their levels of risk perceptions about BSE, risk perceptions that may be evolving over time and be affected by BSE media information available. An econometric analysis of the behavior of consumers and cow-calf producers might identify the impacts of evolving BSE risk perceptions. Risk perceptions related to BSE are evaluated through observed market behavior, an approach that differs from traditional stated preference approaches to eliciting risk perceptions at a particular point in time. BSE risk perceptions may be specified following a Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) derived from sociology, psychology, and economics. Based on the SARF, various quality and quantity indices related to BSE media information are used as explanatory variables in risk perception equations. Risk perceptions are approximated using a predictive difference approach as defined by Liu et al. (1998). Results showed that Canadian consumer and cow-calf producer risk perceptions related to BSE have been amplified or attenuated by both quantity and quality of BSE media information. Government policies on risk communications need to address the different roles of BSE information in Canadian consumers' and cow-calf producers' behavior.

Endogenous hormones, muscle strength, and risk of fall-related fractures in older women.

Science.gov (United States)

Sipilä, Sarianna; Heikkinen, Eino; Cheng, Sulin; Suominen, Harri; Saari, Päivi; Kovanen, Vuokko; Alén, Markku; Rantanen, Taina

2006-01-01

Among older people, fracture-causing fall often leads to health deterioration. The role of endogenous hormone status and muscle strength on fall-related fracture risk is unclear. This study investigates if, after adjustment for bone density, endogenous hormones and muscle strength would predict fall-related limb fracture incidence in older community-dwelling women followed-up over 10 years. As a part of a prospective population-based study, 187 75-year-old women were investigated. Serum estradiol, testosterone, sex hormone binding globulin, and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate concentrations were analyzed, and isometric muscle strength and bone mineral density were assessed. Fall-related limb fractures were gathered from patient records. Serum estradiol concentration was a significant predictor of fall-related limb fractures. Women with serum estradiol concentrations less than 0.022 nmol/L had a 3-fold risk (relative risk 3.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-7.36), and women with estradiol concentrations between 0.022 and 0.066 nmol/L doubled the risk (relative risk 2.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-5.19) of fall-related limb fracture compared to the women with estradiol concentrations ()above 0.066 nmol/L. Adjustment for muscle strength and bone mineral density did not materially change the risk estimates. High muscle strength was associated with a low incidence of fall-related limb fractures. This study showed that in 75-year-old women higher serum estradiol concentration and greater muscle strength were independently associated with a low incidence of fall-related limb fractures even after adjustment for bone density. Our results suggest that hormonal status and muscle strength have their own separate mechanisms protecting from fall-related fractures. This finding is of importance in developing preventive strategies, but calls for further study.

Application of risk-based methodologies to prioritize safety resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahn, F.J.; Sursock, J.P.; Hosler, J.

1993-01-01

The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) started a program entitled risk-based prioritization in 1992. The purpose of this program is to provide generic technical support to the nuclear power industry relative to its recent initiatives in the area of operations and maintenance (O ampersand M) cost control using state-of-the-art risk methods. The approach uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), or similar techniques, to allocate resources commensurate with the risk posed by nuclear plant operations. Specifically, those items or events that have high risk significance would receive the most attention, while those with little risk content would command fewer resources. As quantified in a companion paper,close-quote the potential O ampersand M cost reduction inherent in this approach is very large. Furthermore, risk-based methods should also lead to safety improvements. This paper outlines the way that the EPRI technical work complements the technical, policy, and regulatory initiatives taken by others in the industry and provides an example of the approach as used to prioritize motor-operated valve (MOV) testing in response to US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Generic Letter 89-10

Building-related symptoms among U.S. office workers and risks factors for moisture and contamination: Preliminary analyses of U.S. EPA BASE Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendell, Mark J.; Cozen, Myrna

2002-09-01

The authors assessed relationships between health symptoms in office workers and risk factors related to moisture and contamination, using data collected from a representative sample of U.S. office buildings in the U.S. EPA BASE study. Methods: Analyses assessed associations between three types of weekly, workrelated symptoms-lower respiratory, mucous membrane, and neurologic-and risk factors for moisture or contamination in these office buildings. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate the strength of associations for these risk factors as odds ratios (ORs) adjusted for personal-level potential confounding variables related to demographics, health, job, and workspace. A number of risk factors were associated (e.g., 95% confidence limits excluded 1.0) significantly with small to moderate increases in one or more symptom outcomes. Significantly elevated ORs for mucous membrane symptoms were associated with the following risk factors: presence of humidification system in good condition versus none (OR = 1.4); air handler inspection annually versus daily (OR = 1.6); current water damage in the building (OR = 1.2); and less than daily vacuuming in study space (OR = 1.2). Significantly elevated ORs for lower respiratory symptoms were associated with: air handler inspection annually versus daily (OR = 2.0); air handler inspection less than daily but at least semi-annually (OR=1.6); less than daily cleaning of offices (1.7); and less than daily vacuuming of the study space (OR = 1.4). Only two statistically significant risk factors for neurologic symptoms were identified: presence of any humidification system versus none (OR = 1.3); and less than daily vacuuming of the study space (OR = 1.3). Dirty cooling coils, dirty or poorly draining drain pans, and standing water near outdoor air intakes, evaluated by inspection, were not identified as risk factors in these analyses, despite predictions based on previous findings elsewhere, except that very

Relative radiological risks derived from different TENORM wastes in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, B; Teng, I L; Muhammad Samudi, Y

2011-11-01

In Malaysia technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials (TENORM) wastes are mainly the product of the oil and gas industry and mineral processing. Among these TENORM wastes are tin tailing, tin slag, gypsum and oil sludge. Mineral processing and oil and gas industries produce large volume of TENORM wastes that has become a radiological concern to the authorities. A study was carried out to assess the radiological risk related to workers working at these disposal sites and landfills as well as to the members of the public should these areas be developed for future land use. Radiological risk was assessed based on the magnitude of radiation hazard, effective dose rates and excess cancer risks. Effective dose rates and excess cancer risks were estimated using RESRAD 6.4 computer code. All data on the activity concentrations of NORM in wastes and sludges used in this study were obtained from the Atomic Energy Licensing Board, Malaysia, and they were collected over a period of between 5 and 10 y. Results obtained showed that there was a wide range in the total activity concentrations (TAC) of nuclides in the TENORM wastes. With the exception of tin slag and tin tailing-based TENORM wastes, all other TENORM wastes have TAC values comparable to that of Malaysia's soil. Occupational Effective Dose Rates estimated in all landfill areas were lower than the 20 mSv y(-1) permissible dose limit. The average Excess Cancer Risk Coefficient was estimated to be 2.77×10(-3) risk per mSv. The effective dose rates for residents living on gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes landfills were estimated to be lower than the permissible dose limit for members of the public, and was also comparable to that of the average Malaysia's ordinary soils. The average excess cancer risk coefficient was estimated to be 3.19×10(-3) risk per mSv. Results obtained suggest that gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes should be exempted from any radiological regulatory

Relative radiological risks derived from different TENORM wastes in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ismail, B.; Teng, I. L.; Muhammad samudi, Y.

2011-01-01

In Malaysia technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials (TENORM) wastes are mainly the product of the oil and gas industry and mineral processing. Among these TENORM wastes are tin tailing, tin slag, gypsum and oil sludge. Mineral processing and oil and gas industries produce large volume of TENORM wastes that has become a radiological concern to the authorities. A study was carried out to assess the radiological risk related to workers working at these disposal sites and landfills as well as to the members of the public should these areas be developed for future land use. Radiological risk was assessed based on the magnitude of radiation hazard, effective dose rates and excess cancer risks. Effective dose rates and excess cancer risks were estimated using RESRAD 6.4 computer code. All data on the activity concentrations of NORM in wastes and sludges used in this study were obtained from the Atomic Energy Licensing Board (Malaysia), and they were collected over a period of between 5 and 10 y. Results obtained showed that there was a wide range in the total activity concentrations (TAC) of nuclides in the TENORM wastes. With the exception of tin slag and tin tailing-based TENORM wastes, all other TENORM wastes have TAC values comparable to that of Malaysia's soil. Occupational Effective Dose Rates estimated in all landfill areas were lower than the 20 mSv y -1 permissible dose limit. The average Excess Cancer Risk Coefficient was estimated to be 2.77 x 10 -3 risk per mSv. The effective dose rates for residents living on gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes landfills were estimated to be lower than the permissible dose limit for members of the public, and was also comparable to that of the average Malaysia's ordinary soils. The average excess cancer risk coefficient was estimated to be 3.19 x 10 -3 risk per mSv. Results obtained suggest that gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes should be exempted from any radiological regulatory

Demonstration of risk-based approaches to nuclear plant regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahn, F.J.; Sursock, J.P.; Darling, S.S.; Oddo, J.M.

1993-01-01

This paper describes generic technical support EPRI is providing to the nuclear power industry relative to its recent initiatives in the area of risk-based regulations (RBR). A risk-based regulatory approach uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), or similar techniques, to allocate safety resources commensurate with the risk posed by nuclear plant operations. This approach will reduce O ampersand M costs, and also improve nuclear plant safety. In order to enhance industry, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and public confidence in RBR, three things need to be shown: (1) manpower/resource savings are significant for both NRC and industry; (2) the process is doable in a reasonable amount of time; and (3) the process, if uniformly applied, results in demonstrably cheaper power and safer plants. In 1992, EPRI performed a qualitative study of the key RBR issues contributing to high O ampersand M costs. The results are given on Table 1. This study is being followed up by an in-depth quantitative cost/benefit study to focus technical work on producing guidelines/procedures for licensing submittals to NRC. The guidelines/procedures necessarily will be developed from successful demonstration projects such as the Fitzpatrick pilot plant study proposed by the New York Power Authority and other generic applications. This paper presents three examples: two motor operated valve projects performed by QUADREX Energy Services Corporation working with utilities in responding to NRC Generic Letter 89-10, and a third project working with Yankee Atomic Electric Company on service water systems at a plant in its service system. These demonstration projects aim to show the following: (1) the relative ease of putting together a technical case based on RBR concepts; (2) clarity in differentiating the various risk trade-offs, and in communicating overall reductions in risk with NRC; and (3) improved prioritization of NRC directives

Endogenous and Antipsychotic-Related Risks for Diabetes Mellitus in Young People With Schizophrenia: A Danish Population-Based Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rajkumar, Anto P; Horsdal, Henriette Thisted; Wimberley, Theresa; Cohen, Dan; Mors, Ole; Børglum, Anders D; Gasse, Christiane

2017-07-01

Diabetes mellitus contributes to excessive cardiovascular deaths and reduced life expectancy in schizophrenia. This population-based cohort study investigated the endogenous risk for diabetes in antipsychotic-naive schizophrenia and evaluated the risks added by starting antipsychotic treatment in people with schizophrenia. The study followed all people born in Denmark on or after Jan. 1, 1977, until Jan. 1, 2013 (N=2,736,510). The Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register ascertained schizophrenia diagnoses. The Danish National Prescription Registry provided data on prescriptions of antipsychotics. Diabetes was ascertained from the Danish National Patient Register and Danish National Prescription Registry. The authors estimated the endogenous and antipsychotic-related risks for diabetes by using Cox proportional hazards regression models, while accounting for potential confounders. Of the cohort members, 14,118 (0.52%) developed diabetes, and 8,945 (0.33%) developed schizophrenia during follow-up (49,582,279 person-years). The adjusted hazard ratio for diabetes was 3.07 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.71-5.41) in antipsychotic-naive schizophrenia compared with the general population. The risk for diabetes after starting antipsychotic treatment was significantly higher (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.64; 95% CI, 1.95-6.82) than the risk in antipsychotic-naive schizophrenia, after adjustment for family history of diabetes and other potential confounders. First-line treatment with either first-generation antipsychotics (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.06; 95% CI, 1.32-7.05) or second-generation antipsychotics (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.44; 95% CI, 1.73-6.83) increased the risk for diabetes without a statistically significant difference. Appropriate sensitivity analyses limited to type 2 diabetes corroborated these results. Schizophrenia confers a high endogenous risk for diabetes, and the risk is further increased by both first-generation and second-generation antipsychotics

HIV-related sexual risk behaviors among male-to-female transgender people in Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhatta, Dharma Nand

2014-05-01

Transgender women are a vulnerable and key risk group for HIV, and most research has shown an increased frequency of HIV infection among this minority population. This study examined the prevalence of HIV-related sexual risk behaviors and the socio-demographic correlates with HIV-related sexual risk behaviors among male-to-female (MtF) transgender persons. Data were collected from a sample of 232 individuals through venue-based and snowball sampling and face-to-face interviews. The HIV-related sexual risk behaviors among the MtF transgender persons were: sex without using a condom (48.3%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 41.8-54.8), unprotected anal sex (68.1%; 95% CI 62.0-74.2), and unprotected sex with multiple partners (88.4%; 95% CI 84.3-92.5). Statistically significant differences were found for age, income, education, alcohol habit, and sex with more than two partners per day for these three different HIV-related sexual risk behaviors. MtF transgender persons with a secondary or higher level of education were three times (OR 2.93) more likely to have unprotected sex with multiple partners compared to those with a primary level or no education. Age, education, income, frequency of daily sexual contact, and an alcohol habit remain significant with regard to HIV-related sexual risk behavior. There is an urgent need for programs and interventions to reduce risky sexual behaviors in this minority population. Copyright © 2014 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Periconceptional folic acid associated with an increased risk of oral clefts relative to non-folate related malformations in the Northern Netherlands: a population based case-control study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rozendaal, Anna M.; Essen, Anthonie J. van; Meerman, Gerard J. te; Bakker, Marian K.; Biezen, Jan J. van der; Goorhuis-Brouwer, Sieneke M.; Vermeij-Keers, Christl; Walle, Hermien E. K. de

2013-01-01

Periconceptional folic acid has been associated with a reduced risk of neural tube defects, but findings on its effect in oral clefts are largely inconclusive. This case-control study assesses the effects of periconceptional folic acid on cleft risk, using complementary data from the Dutch Oral Cleft Registry and a population-based birth defects registry (Eurocat) of children and foetuses born in the Northern Netherlands between 1997 and 2009. Cases were live-born infants with non-syndromic clefts (n = 367) and controls were infants or foetuses with chromosomal/syndromal (n = 924) or non-folate related anomalies (n = 2,021). We analyzed type/timing/duration of supplement use related to traditional cleft categories as well as to their timing (early/late embryonic periods) and underlying embryological processes (fusion/differentiation defects). Consistent supplement use during the aetiologically relevant period (weeks 0–12 postconception) was associated with an increased risk of clefts (adjusted odds ratio 1.72, 95 % confidence interval 1.19–2.49), especially of cleft lip/alveolus (3.16, 1.69–5.91). Further analysis systematically showed twofold to threefold increased risks for late differentiation defects—mainly clefts of the lip/alveolus—with no significant associations for early/late fusion defects. Effects were attributable to folic acid and not to other multivitamin components, and inclusion of partial use (not covering the complete aetiologically relevant period) generally weakened associations. In conclusion, this study presents several lines of evidence indicating that periconceptional folic acid in the Northern Netherlands is associated with an increased risk of clefts, in particular of cleft lip/alveolus. This association is strengthened by the specificity, consistency, systematic pattern, and duration of exposure-response relationship of our findings, underlining the need to evaluate public health strategies regarding folic acid and to

Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

1995-01-01

This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

The Two C”s of the Risk-Based Approach to Goal based Standards: Challenges and Caveats

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kontovas, Christos A.; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Zachariadis, Panos

2007-01-01

industry has begun to move from a reactive to a proactive approach to safety through “Formal Safety Assessment” (FSA) and “Goal Based Standards” (GBS). FSA was introduced by the IMO as “a rational and systematic process for accessing the risk related to maritime safety and the protection of the marine...... environment and for evaluating the costs and benefits of IMO’s options for reducing these risks”. The recent GBS approach aims to be another proactive instrument, and there has been recent discussion in the IMO on the possible links between FSA and GBS. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used......, but confusing to many, notions such as Risk Based Rulemaking vs. Risk Based Design, and IMO's GBS Traditional Approach vs. Safety Level Approach, and the implications of their use, or misuse, to future ship rulemaking, design and safety. The paper elaborates on some identified weaknesses of the risk based...

Characterizing users of new psychoactive substances using psychometric scales for risk-related behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Vreeker, Annabel; van der Burg, Babette G; van Laar, Margriet; Brunt, Tibor M

2017-07-01

Studies investigating risk-related behavior in relation to new psychoactive substance (NPS) use are sparse. The current study investigated characteristics of NPS users by comparing risk-related behavior of NPS users to that of illicit drugs (ID) users and licit substances users and non-users (NLC) users. In this cross-sectional study we included 528 individuals across an age range of 18-72years. Using a web-based questionnaire we collected self-report data on substance use, sensation seeking, impulsivity, peer substance use and risk perception of substance use. NPS and ID users had a higher level of sensation seeking compared to NLC users (NPS users: pusers: pusers (pusers (p=0.16), had increased levels of impulsivity compared to NLC users. NPS users had significantly higher scores for sensation seeking (F 1,423 =51.52, pusers. Additionally, NPS users had significantly more peers who use substances compared to ID and NLC users. Also, NPS and ID users had lower risk perception for most substances than NLC users. NPS users had lower risk perception for most substances than ID users. The findings highlight that NPS users show substantial more risk-related behavior than both ID and NLC users. Therefore, NPS users might be considered as a distinctive group of substance users that need another approach in terms of prevention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk-based SMA for Cubesats

Science.gov (United States)

Leitner, Jesse

2016-01-01

This presentation conveys an approach for risk-based safety and mission assurance applied to cubesats. This presentation accompanies a NASA Goddard standard in development that provides guidance for building a mission success plan for cubesats based on the risk tolerance and resources available.

Risk-based inspection in the context of nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soares, Wellington A.; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Rabello, Emerson G., E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: egr@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

2015-07-01

Nuclear power plant owners have to consider several aspects like safety, availability, costs and radiation exposure during operation of nuclear power plants. They also need to demonstrate to regulatory bodies that risk assessment and inspection planning processes are being implemented in effective and appropriate manner. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) is a methodology that, unlike time-based inspection, involves a quantitative assessment of both failure probability and consequence associated with each safety-related item. A correctly implemented RBI program classifies individual equipment by its risks and prioritizes inspection efforts based on this classification. While in traditional deterministic approach, the inspection frequencies are constant, in the RBI approach the inspection interval for each item depends on the risk level. Regularly, inspection intervals from RBI result in risk levels lower or equal than deterministic inspection intervals. According to the literature, RBI solutions improve integrity and reduce costs through a more effective inspection. Risk-Informed In-service Inspection (RI-ISI) is the equivalent term used in the nuclear area. Its use in nuclear power plants around world is briefly reviewed in this paper. Identification of practice methodologies for performing risk-based analyses presented in this paper can help both Brazilian nuclear power plant operator and regulatory body in evaluating the RI-ISI technique feasibility as a tool for optimizing inspections within nuclear plants. (author)

Risk-based inspection in the context of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, Wellington A.; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Rabello, Emerson G.

2015-01-01

Nuclear power plant owners have to consider several aspects like safety, availability, costs and radiation exposure during operation of nuclear power plants. They also need to demonstrate to regulatory bodies that risk assessment and inspection planning processes are being implemented in effective and appropriate manner. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) is a methodology that, unlike time-based inspection, involves a quantitative assessment of both failure probability and consequence associated with each safety-related item. A correctly implemented RBI program classifies individual equipment by its risks and prioritizes inspection efforts based on this classification. While in traditional deterministic approach, the inspection frequencies are constant, in the RBI approach the inspection interval for each item depends on the risk level. Regularly, inspection intervals from RBI result in risk levels lower or equal than deterministic inspection intervals. According to the literature, RBI solutions improve integrity and reduce costs through a more effective inspection. Risk-Informed In-service Inspection (RI-ISI) is the equivalent term used in the nuclear area. Its use in nuclear power plants around world is briefly reviewed in this paper. Identification of practice methodologies for performing risk-based analyses presented in this paper can help both Brazilian nuclear power plant operator and regulatory body in evaluating the RI-ISI technique feasibility as a tool for optimizing inspections within nuclear plants. (author)

Diet-related risk factors for gastric dilatation-volvulus in dogs of high-risk breeds.

Science.gov (United States)

Raghavan, Malathi; Glickman, Nita; McCabe, George; Lantz, Gary; Glickman, Lawrence T

2004-01-01

A nested case-control study was conducted among 1634 dogs with complete diet information in a 5-year prospective study to determine diet-related risk factors for gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV). Cases included 106 dogs that developed GDV; controls included 212 dogs without GDV that were frequency matched to cases by year of GDV onset. Proportionate energy consumed from major food types and from carbohydrates was determined. Dogs were categorized as consuming either a low volume or high volume of food based on the median number of cups of food fed per kg of body weight per meal. Dogs fed a larger volume of food per meal were at a significantly (Pdogs, the risk of GDV was highest for dogs fed a larger volume of food once daily.

Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

1981-07-01

Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Connell, Paul P; Keane, Pearse A; O'Neill, Evelyn C; Altaie, Rasha W; Loane, Edward; Neelam, Kumari; Nolan, John M; Beatty, Stephen

2009-01-01

Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

Risk Factors for Age-Related Maculopathy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul P. Connell

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Age-related maculopathy (ARM is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Connell, Paul P

2012-02-01

Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715\\/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

Nature Disaster Risk Evaluation with a Group Decision Making Method Based on Incomplete Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Tang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Because the natural disaster system is a very comprehensive and large system, the disaster reduction scheme must rely on risk analysis. Experts’ knowledge and experiences play a critical role in disaster risk assessment. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is an effective tool to express experts’ preference information when comparing pairwise alternatives. Owing to the lack of knowledge or a heavy workload, information may be missed in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Thus, an incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is constructed. In this paper, we firstly discuss some properties of the additive consistent hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Next, the incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, the normalized hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, and the acceptable hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation are defined. Afterwards, three procedures to estimate the missing information are proposed. The first one deals with the situation in which there are only n − 1 known judgments involving all the alternatives; the second one is used to estimate the missing information of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation with more known judgments; while the third procedure is used to deal with ignorance situations in which there is at least one alternative with totally missing information. Furthermore, an algorithm for group decision making with incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations is given. Finally, we illustrate our model with a case study about flood disaster risk evaluation. A comparative analysis is presented to testify the advantage of our method.

Nature Disaster Risk Evaluation with a Group Decision Making Method Based on Incomplete Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relations.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Ming; Liao, Huchang; Li, Zongmin; Xu, Zeshui

2018-04-13

Because the natural disaster system is a very comprehensive and large system, the disaster reduction scheme must rely on risk analysis. Experts' knowledge and experiences play a critical role in disaster risk assessment. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is an effective tool to express experts' preference information when comparing pairwise alternatives. Owing to the lack of knowledge or a heavy workload, information may be missed in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Thus, an incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is constructed. In this paper, we firstly discuss some properties of the additive consistent hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Next, the incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, the normalized hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, and the acceptable hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation are defined. Afterwards, three procedures to estimate the missing information are proposed. The first one deals with the situation in which there are only n-1 known judgments involving all the alternatives; the second one is used to estimate the missing information of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation with more known judgments; while the third procedure is used to deal with ignorance situations in which there is at least one alternative with totally missing information. Furthermore, an algorithm for group decision making with incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations is given. Finally, we illustrate our model with a case study about flood disaster risk evaluation. A comparative analysis is presented to testify the advantage of our method.

Dietary Protein and Amino Acid Profiles in Relation to Risk of Dysglycemia: Findings from a Prospective Population-Based Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Parvin Mirmiran

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Considering the limited knowledge on the effects of dietary amino acid intake on dysglycemia, we assessed the possible association of dietary protein and amino acid patterns with the risk of pre-diabetes in a prospective population-based study. Participants without diabetes and pre-diabetes (n = 1878 were recruited from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study and were followed for a mean of 5.8 years. Their dietary protein and amino acid intakes were assessed at baseline (2006–2008; demographic, lifestyle, and biochemical variables were evaluated at baseline and in follow-up examinations. Pre-diabetes was defined according to the American Diabetes Association criteria. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models, adjusted for potential confounders, were used to estimate the risk of pre-diabetes across tertiles of dietary protein and amino acid pattern scores. The mean age of the participants (44.9% men was 38.3 ± 12.7 years at baseline. Three major amino acid patterns were characterized: (1 higher loads of lysine, methionine, valine, aspartic acids, tyrosine, threonine, isoleucine, leucine, alanine, histidine, and serine; (2 higher loads of glycine, cysteine, arginine, and tryptophan; and (3 higher loads of proline and glutamic acid. Dietary total protein intake Hazard Ratio (HR = 1.13, 95% Confidence Interval (CI = 0.92–1.38 and HR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.81–1.23, in the second and third tertile, respectively was not related to the development of pre-diabetes. The highest score of second dietary amino acid pattern tended to be associated with a decreased risk of pre-diabetes (HR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.65–1.01, whereas the third pattern was related to an increased risk in the fully adjusted model (HR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.02–1.52; p for trend = 0.05. These novel data suggest that the amino acid composition of an individual’s diet may modify their risk of pre-diabetes.

Risk factors for age-related macular degeneration: Pooled findings from three continents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Smith, W.; Assink, J.; Klein, R.; Mitchell, P.; Klaver, C. C.; Klein, B. E.; Hofman, A.; Jensen, S.; Wang, J. J.; de Jong, P. T.

2001-01-01

To assess the prevalence and potential risk factors for late age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in three racially similar populations from North America, Europe, and AUSTRALIA: Combined analysis of population-based eye disease prevalence data. There were 14,752 participants with gradable

Cardiovascular risk factors associated with age-related macular degeneration: the Tromso Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Erke, M. G.; Bertelsen, G.; Peto, T.

2014-01-01

PurposeTo examine associations between cardiovascular risk factors and age-related macular degeneration (AMD). MethodsA population-based, cross-sectional study of Caucasians aged 65-87years was conducted in Norway in 2007/2008. Retinal photographs were graded for AMD. Multivariable logistic...

Quantifying risk over the life course - latency, age-related susceptibility, and other time-varying exposure metrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Molin; Liao, Xiaomei; Laden, Francine; Spiegelman, Donna

2016-06-15

Identification of the latency period and age-related susceptibility, if any, is an important aspect of assessing risks of environmental, nutritional, and occupational exposures. We consider estimation and inference for latency and age-related susceptibility in relative risk and excess risk models. We focus on likelihood-based methods for point and interval estimation of the latency period and age-related windows of susceptibility coupled with several commonly considered exposure metrics. The method is illustrated in a study of the timing of the effects of constituents of air pollution on mortality in the Nurses' Health Study. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Increased risk taking in relation to chronic stress in young adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smarandita eCeccato

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Chronic stress is a public health problem that affects a significant part of the population. While the physiological damage it causes is under ongoing scrutiny, its behavioral effects have been overlooked. This is one of the first studies to examine the relation between chronic stress and decision-making, using a standard lottery paradigm. We measured learning-independent risk taking in the gain domain through binary choices between financially incentivized lotteries. We then measured self-reported chronic stress with the Trier Inventory for the Assessment of Chronic Stress (TICS. We additionally collected hair samples in a subsample of volunteers, in order to quantify chronic cortisol exposure. We discovered a significant, positive correlation between self-reported chronic stress and risk taking that is stronger for women than for men. This confirms part of the findings in acute stress research that show a connection between higher stress and increased risk taking. However, unlike the biologically-based results from acute stress research, we did not identify a significant relation between hair cortisol and behavior. In line with previous literature, we found a clear gender difference in risk taking and self-reports: women generally take less risk and report slightly higher stress levels than men. We conclude that perceived chronic stress can impact behavior in risky situations.

Work-related psychosocial stress and risk of preterm, low birthweight delivery.

Science.gov (United States)

Homer, C J; James, S A; Siegel, E

1990-02-01

We investigated whether work-related psychologic stress--defined as work characterized by both high psychologic demands and limited control over the response to these demands--increases a woman's risk of delivering a preterm, low birthweight infant. We studied 786 employed pregnant women included in the National Longitudinal Survey of Labor Market Experience, Youth Cohort (NLSY), a nationally representative sample of 12,686 young adults. Data concerning work status, job title, and other factors affecting pregnancy outcome were obtained from the NLSY. Assessment of job experience was based on job title, using an established catalogue of occupation characteristics. After accounting for the physical exertion entailed in a job, occupational psychologic stress as measured by job title was not associated with preterm, low birthweight delivery for the sample as a whole (Relative risk = 1.16, 95% confidence interval .45, 2.95). For those women who did not want to remain in the work force, work-related stress increased their risk of experiencing this outcome (RR = 8.1, 95% CI 1.5, 50.2). Personal motivation toward work, as well as the physical effort of work, should be considered in evaluating the impact of a job's psychologic characteristics on pregnancy outcome.

A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

2014-11-01

We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in

HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Dorosh

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

School-related risk factors for drunkenness among adolescents: risk factors differ between socio-economic groups

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Anette; Holstein, Bjørn E; Due, Pernille

2006-01-01

Purpose: To examine, separately for boys and girls, whether socio-economic differences in drunkenness exist in adolescence, whether the level of exposure to school-related risk factors differ between socio-economic groups, and whether the relative contribution of school-related risk factors......) was measured by parental occupation. RESULTS: Among girls, exposures to school-related risk factors were more prevalent in lower socio-economic groups. Poor school satisfaction was associated with drunkenness among girls from high SEP, odds ratio (OR) = 2.98 (0.73-12.16). Among boys from high SEP autonomy...

Risks of neurological and immune-related diseases, including narcolepsy, after vaccination with Pandemrix: a population- and registry-based cohort study with over 2 years of follow-up.

Science.gov (United States)

Persson, I; Granath, F; Askling, J; Ludvigsson, J F; Olsson, T; Feltelius, N

2014-02-01

To investigate the association between vaccination with Pandemrix and risk of selected neurological and immune-related diseases including narcolepsy. Population-based prospective cohort study using data from regional vaccination registries and national health registries. Seven healthcare regions in Sweden comprising 61% of the Swedish population. Study population of 3,347,467 vaccinated and 2,497,572 nonvaccinated individuals (vaccination coverage ≈ 60%) followed between 2009 and 2011 for 6.9 million person-years after exposure and 6.0 million person-years without exposure. First recorded diagnosis of neurological and immune-related diseases. Relative risks [hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs)] assessed using Cox regression, adjusted for covariates. For all selected neurological and immune-related outcomes under study, other than allergic vaccine reactions (for which we verified an expected increase in risk) and narcolepsy, HRs were close to 1.0 and always below 1.3. We observed a three-fold increased risk of a diagnosis of narcolepsy (HR: 2.92, 95% CI: 1.78-4.79; that is, four additional cases per 100,000 person-years) in individuals ≤ 20 years of age at vaccination and a two-fold increase (HR: 2.18, 95% CI: 1.00-4.75) amongst young adults between 21 and 30 years of age. The excess risk declined successively with increasing age at vaccination; no increase in risk was seen after 40 years of age. For a large number of selected neurological and immune-related diseases, we could neither confirm any causal association with Pandemrix nor refute entirely a small excess risk. We confirmed an increased risk for a diagnosis of narcolepsy in individuals ≤ 20 years of age and observed a trend towards an increased risk also amongst young adults between 21 and 30 years. © 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

Oil spill risk assessment : relative impact indices by oil type and location

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

French-McCay, D.; Beegle-Krause, C.J.; Rowe, J.; Rodriguez, W.; Schmidt Etkin, D.

2009-01-01

The aim of the study was to inform policies related to resource allocation for oil spill prevention, preparedness and response activities in Washington State. Oil spill reports and impact modelling studies were evaluated in order to determine major risk consequence factors including spill volume, location, timing, toxicity, persistence, and expected frequency of spills by sector. The Washington Compensation Schedule pre-assessment screening and oil spill compensation schedule regulations (WCS) designed to consider the sensitivity of oiled areas as well as the relative density and seasonal distributions of sensitive biota. Spill incidents were assigned per-gallon impact scores based on geographic location, oil type, and season. The WCS qualitative rating system was used to assess the potential impacts of spills in different geographic systems. Geographic zones were based on geography, circulation of currents, climate, and the WCS sub-regions in estuarine and marine areas on the Pacific coast of Washington State. Oil types included crude, heavy, and light oils; gasoline; jet fuel; and non-petroleum oils. A habitat index was calculated to represent existing stream conditions. It was concluded that the relative impact risk model is a reliable method for characterizing impacts based on spill volume, oil effects, and vulnerability rankings. 25 refs., 20 tabs., 3 figs

The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

Quantifying Risk Over the Life Course – Latency, Age-Related Susceptibility, and Other Time-Varying Exposure Metrics

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Molin; Liao, Xiaomei; Laden, Francine; Spiegelman, Donna

2016-01-01

Identification of the latency period and age-related susceptibility, if any, is an important aspect of assessing risks of environmental, nutritional and occupational exposures. We consider estimation and inference for latency and age-related susceptibility in relative risk and excess risk models. We focus on likelihood-based methods for point and interval estimation of the latency period and age-related windows of susceptibility coupled with several commonly considered exposure metrics. The method is illustrated in a study of the timing of the effects of constituents of air pollution on mortality in the Nurses’ Health Study. PMID:26750582

RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming-Chang LEE

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

A risk-based decision-aiding tool for waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weiner, R.F.; Reiser, A.S.; Elcock, C.G.; Nevins, S.

1997-01-01

N-CART (the National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program Cost Analysis and Risk Tool) is being developed to aid in low-risk, cost-effective, timely management of radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, and can therefore be used in management of mixed waste. N-CART provides evaluation of multiple alternatives and presents the consequences of proposed waste management activities in a clear and concise format. N-CART's decision-aiding analyses include comparisons and sensitivity analyses of multiple alternatives and allows the user to perform quick turn-around open-quotes what ifclose quotes studies to investigate various scenarios. Uncertainties in data (such as cost and schedule of various activities) are represented as distributions. N-CART centralizes documentation of the bases of program alternatives and program decisions, thereby supporting responses to stakeholders concerns. The initial N-CART design considers regulatory requirements, costs, and schedules for alternative courses of action. The final design will include risks (public health, occupational, economic, scheduling), economic benefits, and the impacts of secondary waste generation. An optimization tool is being incorporated that allows the user to specify the relative importance of cost, time risks, and other bases for decisions. The N-CART prototype can be used to compare the costs and schedules of disposal alternatives for mixed low-level radioactive waste (MLLW) and greater-than-Class-C (GTCC) waste, as well as spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and related scrap material

Early-onset inguinal hernia as risk factor for schizophrenia or related psychosis: a nationwide register-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Melkersson, Kristina; Wernroth, Mona-Lisa

2017-10-01

In an earlier interview study, we found that more men with familial schizophrenia had undergone inguinal hernia operation, than men with sporadic schizophrenia. However, there are no other studies published specifically on inguinal hernia and schizophrenia. Therefore, the aim of this study was to carry out a Swedish register-based cohort study on the association between inguinal hernia and schizophrenia or related psychosis. Data from the Total Population- and Medical Birth-Registers were used to create a cohort of all individuals born in Sweden 1987-1999 (n=1 406 168). The cohort individuals were linked with the In- and Out-patient Registers and followed from birth to 2015 to identify onset of schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder and inguinal hernia. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association between inguinal hernia before age 13 and risk of developing schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder during a follow-up from age 13. Inguinal hernia before age 13 was identified in 21 095 individuals, and during the follow-up in total 1314 individuals developed schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder. The risk of schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder was higher among individuals with inguinal hernia before age 13, than among individuals without such a diagnosis, especially among the men [adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval); all: 1.44 (1.01-2.06), p=0.0452, men: 1.46 (1.01-2.12), p=0.0460, women: 0.56 (0.14-2.27), p=0.4173]. This study shows that early-onset inguinal hernia is associated with increased risk of developing schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder, especially in men. Such an association may point to a common biological basis for the development of inguinal hernia and schizophrenia or related psychosis.

A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

2006-12-01

A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

Risk-based inspection of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masopust, R.

1995-01-01

A multidiscipline research programme was developed in the USA to establish risk-based inspections for NPP structures and equipment components. Based on this US research effort, the risk-based procedure for developing inspection guidelines for NPPs is described. The procedure includes the definition of systems, qualitative risk assessment, qualitative risk analysis and development of the inspection programme. The method, when adopted and modified, is recommended also for risk-based inspections of structures and equipment of WWER-type NPPs. A pilot application of the method to unit 1 of the Surry NPP is summarized. (Z.S.) 1 tab., 1 fig., 5 refs

Climate risk assessment in museums : degradation risks determined from temperature and relative humidity data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Martens, M.H.J.

2012-01-01

The main subject of this thesis is the determination of climate risks to objects in museums on the basis of measured and/or simulated temperature and relative humidity data. The focus is on the quantification of climate related risks for the preservation quality of indoor climate in Dutch museums.

Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

2016-09-30

Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk and benefit perceptions of mobile phone and base station technology in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

van Kleef, Ellen; Fischer, Arnout R H; Khan, Moin; Frewer, Lynn J

2010-06-01

Research in developed countries showed that many citizens perceive that radio signals transmitted by mobile phones and base stations represent potential health risks. Less research has been conducted in developing countries focused on citizen perceptions of risks and benefits, despite the recent and rapid introduction of mobile communication technologies. This study aims to identify factors that are influential in determining the tradeoffs that Bangladeshi citizens make between risks and benefits in terms of mobile phone technology acceptance and health concerns associated with the technology. Bangladesh was selected as representative of many developing countries inasmuch as terrestrial telephone infrastructure is insubstantial, and mobile phone use has expanded rapidly over the last decade, even among the poor. Issues of importance were identified in a small-scale qualitative study among Bangladeshi citizens (n = 13), followed by a survey within a sample of Bangladeshi citizens (n = 500). The results demonstrate that, in general, the perceived benefits of mobile phone technology outweigh the risks. The perceived benefits are primarily related to the social and personal advantages of mobile phone use, including the ability to receive emergency news about floods, cyclones, and other natural disasters. Base stations were seen as a symbol of societal advance. The results furthermore suggest that overall risk perceptions are relatively low, in particular health risks, and are primarily driven by perceptions that related to crime and social inconvenience. Perceived health risks are relatively small. These findings show that risk communication and management may be particularly effective when contextual factors of the society where the system is implemented are taken into consideration.

Affect and Acceptability: Exploring Teachers' Technology-Related Risk Perceptions

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, Sarah K.

2011-01-01

Educational change, such as technology integration, involves risk. Teachers are encouraged to "take risks", but what risks they are asked to take and how do they perceive these risks? Developing an understanding of teachers' technology-related risk perceptions can help explain their choices and behaviours. This paper presents a way to…

Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendland, W.G.

1992-01-01

This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

Optimal Consumption and Investment under Time-Varying Relative Risk Aversion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Steffensen, Mogens

2011-01-01

We consider the continuous time consumption-investment problem originally formalized and solved by Merton in case of constant relative risk aversion. We present a complete solution for the case where relative risk aversion with respect to consumption varies with time, having in mind an investor...... with age-dependent risk aversion. This provides a new motivation for life-cycle investment rules. We study the optimal consumption and investment rules, in particular in the case where the relative risk aversion with respect to consumption is increasing with age....

13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based Lender...

Elderly Taiwanese's Intrinsic Risk Factors for Fall-related Injuries

OpenAIRE

In-Fun Li; Yvonne Hsiung; Hui-Fen Hsing; Mei-Yu Lee; Te-Hsin Chang; Ming-Yuan Huang

2016-01-01

Background: As a vital issue in geriatric research, risk factors for falls were concluded to be multifactorial, and prevention has been mostly aimed at decreasing situational and environmental risks that cause and aggravate fall-related injuries, particularly within the institutions. While knowledge is limited about older patients' intrinsic determinants, the purpose of this study was to explore elderly Taiwanese's intrinsic risk factors associated with severe fall-related injuries. Method...

Enhancing the effectiveness of IST through risk-based techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Floyd, S.D.

1996-12-01

Current IST requirements were developed mainly through deterministic-based methods. While this approach has resulted in an adequate level of safety and reliability for pumps and valves, insights from probabilistic safety assessments suggest a better safety focus can be achieved at lower costs. That is, some high safety impact pumps and valves are currently not tested under the IST program and should be added, while low safety impact valves could be tested at significantly greater intervals than allowed by the current IST program. The nuclear utility industry, through the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), has developed a draft guideline for applying risk-based techniques to focus testing on those pumps and valves with a high safety impact while reducing test frequencies on low safety impact pumps and valves. The guideline is being validated through an industry pilot application program that is being reviewed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NEI and the ASME maintain a dialogue on the two groups` activities related to risk-based IST. The presenter will provide an overview of the NEI guideline, discuss the methodological approach for applying risk-based technology to IST and provide the status of the industry pilot plant effort.

Relation of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors between Parents and Children.

Science.gov (United States)

Halvorsen, Tanya; Moran, Antoinette; Jacobs, David R; Steffen, Lyn M; Sinaiko, Alan R; Zhou, Xia; Steinberger, Julia

2015-11-01

To explore the relations of parent-child cardiometabolic risk factors and assess the influence of adiposity on these associations. Associations of adiposity, blood pressure (BP), lipids, fasting insulin and glucose, and a risk factor cluster score (CS) were evaluated in a cross-sectional study of 179 parents and their children (6-18 years, N = 255). Insulin resistance was assessed by euglycemic clamp in parents and children aged 10 years or older. Metabolic syndrome in parents was defined by National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. CSs of the risk factors were created based on age-specific z-scores. Analyses included Pearson correlation and linear regression, adjusted for parent and child age, sex, race, and body mass index (BMI), accounting for within-family correlation. We found positive parent-child correlations for measures of adiposity (BMI, BMI percentile, waist, subcutaneous fat, and visceral fat; r = 0.22-0.34, all P ≤ .003), systolic BP (r = 0.20, P = .002), total cholesterol (r = 0.39, P parent-child correlations, except systolic BP, remained significant. Although adiposity is strongly correlated between parents and children, many cardiometabolic risk factors correlate independent of parent and child BMI. Adverse parental cardiometabolic profiles may identify at-risk children independent of the child's adiposity status. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Public attitudes towards industrial, work-related and other risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prescott-Clarke, P.

1982-01-01

Two reports describing work sponsored by the Health and Safety Executive are presented. The first describes a study of public attitudes towards industrial, work related, nuclear industry related and other risks. The second report describes public attitudes towards the acceptability of risks. (U.K.)

Brain tumour risk in relation to mobile telephone use

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Christoffer

2010-01-01

The rapid increase in mobile telephone use has generated concern about possible health risks related to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from this technology.......The rapid increase in mobile telephone use has generated concern about possible health risks related to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from this technology....

Young people's perspectives on health-related risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grace Elisabeth Spencer

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Drawing upon current socio-cultural understandings of risk, this study highlights the disjunction between the expert risk discourses that permeate official public health policy and practice, and young people’s own perspectives on health and risk. Data were collected from young people aged 14-16 years through the use of group and individual interviews in a school and community youth centre setting. Findings from this study question the saliency of expert-defined health-related risks to young people’s everyday lives. Young people in this study saw health as closely linked to ‘being happy’. Friendships and a sense of personal achievement were particularly important to participants’ health and well-being. When accounting for their participation in health-related practices identified as ‘risky’ in government policy – such as smoking, alcohol and substance use – young people emphasised the levels of pressure they experienced. Sources of pressure included arguments and bullying, school work, and negative stereotypes of young people in general. These areas indicated young people’s concerns that reach beyond the official prescriptions permeating current health policy.

Overview of Risk Mitigation for Safety-Critical Computer-Based Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

2015-01-01

This report presents a high-level overview of a general strategy to mitigate the risks from threats to safety-critical computer-based systems. In this context, a safety threat is a process or phenomenon that can cause operational safety hazards in the form of computational system failures. This report is intended to provide insight into the safety-risk mitigation problem and the characteristics of potential solutions. The limitations of the general risk mitigation strategy are discussed and some options to overcome these limitations are provided. This work is part of an ongoing effort to enable well-founded assurance of safety-related properties of complex safety-critical computer-based aircraft systems by developing an effective capability to model and reason about the safety implications of system requirements and design.

Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Donnelly, K.C.; Safe, S.H. [Texas A& M Univ., Houston, TX (United States); Randerath, K.; Randerath, E. [College Station and Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX (United States)

1994-12-31

To compare the standard chemical-based risk assessment with in vitro genotoxicity assays, two complex environmental mixtures from a wood preserving site were analyzed in the Salmonella/microsome and E. coli prophage induction assays. Using GC/MS, sample 003 was found to contain relatively low levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PNAs) and elevated levels of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), while sample 005 had higher levels of PNAs and relatively low levels of PCDDs. The complex mixtures were sequentially extracted with methylene chloride and methanol for analysis in Salmonella, or extracted with 1:1 hexane: acetone mixture for analysis in the prophage induction assay. At a dose of 1.0 mg/plate in Salmonella strain TA98 with metabolic activation, the methanol extract of sample 003 induced 197 net revertants, while sample 005 induced 436 net revertants. In the prophage induction assay, with activation, the hexane:acetone extract of sample 003 induced a fold increase that was slightly lower than that observed with sample 005. The estimated incremental carcinogenic risk for dermal adsorption and ingestion was 1.5E-3 for sample 003, while for sample 005 the estimated risk was 1.5E-2. Thus, the sample which induced the maximum response in both bioassays also had the highest estimated cancer risk. However, the frequency of PNA-DNA adducts in both skin and liver tissues was appreciably higher with sample 005 than with sample 003.

AHP-based risk analysis of energy performance contracting projects in Russia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garbuzova-Schlifter, Maria; Madlener, Reinhard

2016-01-01

Understanding and properly managing risks that could potentially affect the target- and performance-based profits of energy performance contracting (EPC) projects are essential. It is particularly important for the establishment and success of energy service companies (ESCOs) acting in the vulnerable environment of the vast but highly energy-inefficient Russian market. This study systematically explores common risk factors and causes of risk associated with EPC projects executed in three Russian sectors: (1) industrial; (2) housing and communal services; and (3) public. Several interviews with the Russian EPC experts were accomplished and a qualitative risk assessment by using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach. The data were obtained from a web-based questionnaire survey conducted among Russian EPC project executors. For each focus sector, a specific preference-based ranking of the identified risk factors and causes of risk was derived. The AHP results show that causes of risk related to the financial and regulatory aspects contribute most to the riskiness of EPC projects performed in all three focus sectors in Russia, calling for the special attention of EPC policy- and business-makers. Due to sectorial particularities and different actors involved, we conclude that there is a need for elaboration of sector-specific contractual schemes for EPC projects. - Highlights: • AHP- and survey-based study of energy performance contracting (EPC) projects in Russia. • Main risk factors and causes of risk associated with EPC projects are investigated. • In practice, lack of a feasible risk management approach in EPC projects. • Regulatory and financial risks contribute most to the EPC projects’ riskiness. • Elaboration of the sector-specific EPC project contractual scheme is required.

An index-based method to assess risks of climate-related hazards in coastal zones: The case of Tetouan

Science.gov (United States)

Satta, Alessio; Snoussi, Maria; Puddu, Manuela; Flayou, Latifa; Hout, Radouane

2016-06-01

The regional risk assessment carried out within the ClimVar & ICZM Project identified the coastal zone of Tetouan as a hotspot of the Mediterranean Moroccan coast and so it was chosen for the application of the Multi-Scale Coastal Risk Index for Local Scale (CRI-LS). The local scale approach provides a useful tool for local coastal planning and management by exploring the effects and the extensions of the hazards and combining hazard, vulnerability and exposure variables in order to identify areas where the risk is relatively high. The coast of Tetouan is one of the coastal areas that have been most rapidly and densely urbanized in Morocco and it is characterized by an erosive shoreline. Local authorities are facing the complex task of balancing development and managing coastal risks, especially coastal erosion and flooding, and then be prepared to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The first phase of the application of the CRI-LS methodology to Tetouan consisted of defining the coastal hazard zone, which results from the overlaying of the erosion hazard zone and the flooding hazard zone. Nineteen variables were chosen to describe the Hazards, Vulnerability and Exposure factors. The scores corresponding to each variable were calculated and the weights assigned through an expert judgement elicitation. The resulting values are hosted in a geographic information system (GIS) platform that enables the individual variables and aggregated risk scores to be color-coded and mapped across the coastal hazard zone. The results indicated that 10% and 27% of investigated littoral fall under respectively very high and high vulnerability because of combination of high erosion rates with high capital land use. The risk map showed that some areas, especially the flood plains of Restinga, Smir and Martil-Alila, with distances over 5 km from the coast, are characterized by high levels of risk due to the low topography of the flood plains and to the high values of exposure

A model-based risk management framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune

2002-08-15

The ongoing research activity addresses these issues through two co-operative activities. The first is the IST funded research project CORAS, where Institutt for energiteknikk takes part as responsible for the work package for Risk Analysis. The main objective of the CORAS project is to develop a framework to support risk assessment of security critical systems. The second, called the Halden Open Dependability Demonstrator (HODD), is established in cooperation between Oestfold University College, local companies and HRP. The objective of HODD is to provide an open-source test bed for testing, teaching and learning about risk analysis methods, risk analysis tools, and fault tolerance techniques. The Inverted Pendulum Control System (IPCON), which main task is to keep a pendulum balanced and controlled, is the first system that has been established. In order to make risk assessment one need to know what a system does, or is intended to do. Furthermore, the risk assessment requires correct descriptions of the system, its context and all relevant features. A basic assumption is that a precise model of this knowledge, based on formal or semi-formal descriptions, such as UML, will facilitate a systematic risk assessment. It is also necessary to have a framework to integrate the different risk assessment methods. The experiences so far support this hypothesis. This report presents CORAS and the CORAS model-based risk management framework, including a preliminary guideline for model-based risk assessment. The CORAS framework for model-based risk analysis offers a structured and systematic approach to identify and assess security issues of ICT systems. From the initial assessment of IPCON, we also believe that the framework is applicable in a safety context. Further work on IPCON, as well as the experiences from the CORAS trials, will provide insight and feedback for further improvements. (Author)

[Mother-newborn relational risk - Study of prevalence and associated variables].

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, Maribel; Poo, Ana María; Baeza, Bernardita; Bustos, M Luis

2015-01-01

Clinical evidence reveals the importance of mother-newborn bonding experience for health promoting and maintenance of human life. If the newborn lacks care and affection, she/he may develop an attachment disorder. A predictive scale regarding the risk of mothernewborn relationships is available, which makes possible an early intervention to prevent the development of relational disorders. The aim of this study is to apply the Kimelman measurement scale to determine the relational risk in mother-newborn pairs, as well as the prevalence and the associated biopsychosocial variables. A cross-sectional study with a probabilistic sample of 333 mother-infant pairs in postpartum maternity at Temuco hospital. The Kimelman mother-newborn attachment assessment guide was used. Biopsychosocial variables were obtained from the mothers studied. The association of biopsychosocial variables with relational risk was analyzed using OR and confidence intervals of 95%. The prevalence of high relational risk was 43.8%. The associated biopsychosocial variables included, women with no steady partner, single parent, teenage mothers, unwanted and unplanned pregnancy. Almost half of the mothers were in the high risk group. Early identification of relational risk and its related variables could help in the intervention in this vulnerable group. Copyright © 2015. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

Model-based mitigation of availability risks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zambon, E.; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, S.; Salvato, M.

2007-01-01

The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for risk assessment and mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

Model-Based Mitigation of Availability Risks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zambon, Emmanuele; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, Sandro; Salvato, Marco

2007-01-01

The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Related Knowledge, Risk ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

There was poor HIV preventive practices; indicating ... Gyawali, et al.: HIV related knowledge, risk perception and practices among married women. Annals of Medical .... of this study correspond to the Indian, Nigerian and Iranian studies cited ...

Sexual orientation- and race-based discrimination and sexual HIV risk behavior among urban MSM.

Science.gov (United States)

Frye, Victoria; Nandi, Vijay; Egan, James; Cerda, Magdalena; Greene, Emily; Van Tieu, Hong; Ompad, Danielle C; Hoover, Donald R; Lucy, Debbie; Baez, Eduardo; Koblin, Beryl A

2015-02-01

Understanding what social factors are associated with risk of HIV acquisition and transmission among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM) is a critical public health goal. Experiencing discrimination may increase risk of HIV infection among MSM. This analysis assessed relations between experiences of sexual orientation- and race-based discrimination and sexual HIV risk behavior among MSM in New York City. 1,369 MSM completed a self-administered computerized assessment of past 3-month sexual behavior, experience of social discrimination and other covariates. Regression models assessed relations between recent experience of discrimination and sexual HIV risk behavior. Mean age was 32 years; 32 % were white; 32 % Latino/Hispanic; 25 % African American/Black. Of MSM who self-reported HIV-positive or unknown status (377), 7 % (N = 27) reported having unprotected insertive anal intercourse with an HIV-negative or unknown status partner ("HIV transmission risk"). Of MSM who self-reported HIV-negative status (992), 11 % (110) reported unprotected receptive anal intercourse with an HIV-positive or unknown status partner ("HIV acquisition risk"). HIV acquisition risk was positively associated with sexual orientation-based discrimination in home or social neighborhoods, but not race-based discrimination. We observed that sexual orientation-based discrimination was associated with sexual HIV risk behavior among urban-dwelling MSM. Addressing environmental sources of this form of discrimination, as well as the psychological distress that may result, should be prioritized in HIV prevention efforts.

Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

2003-01-01

of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

Risk related behaviour under different ambient scent conditions

OpenAIRE

Alina Gagarina; Indre Pikturniene

2016-01-01

The article analyses the effect of two ambient scents (peppermint and vanilla) and their intensiveness on risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to identify the relationship of ambient scent type and intensiveness with risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Methodology/methods: 2×2 factorial experiment with control group was run. Ambi...

Risk of subarachnoid haemorrhage in first degree relatives of patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gaist, D; Vaeth, M; Tsiropoulos, I

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of occurrence of subarachnoid haemorrhage in first degree relatives (parents, siblings, children) of patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage. DESIGN: Population based cohort study using data from the Danish National Discharge Registry and the Central Person Registry......, standardised for age, sex, and calendar period. This process was repeated for patients discharged from neurosurgery units, as diagnoses from these wards had high validity (93%). RESULTS: 18 patients had a total of 19 first degree relatives with subarachnoid haemorrhage during the study period, corresponding...... to a standardised incidence ratio of 2.9 (95% confidence interval 1.9 to 4.6). Patients discharged from neurosurgery wards had a higher standardised incidence ratio (4.5, 2.7 to 7.3). CONCLUSIONS: First degree relatives of patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage have a threefold to fivefold increased risk...

Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deriot, S.

1992-10-01

This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

Perception of Risk and Terrorism-Related Behavior Change: Dual Influences of Probabilistic Reasoning and Reality Testing

Science.gov (United States)

Denovan, Andrew; Dagnall, Neil; Drinkwater, Kenneth; Parker, Andrew; Clough, Peter

2017-01-01

The present study assessed the degree to which probabilistic reasoning performance and thinking style influenced perception of risk and self-reported levels of terrorism-related behavior change. A sample of 263 respondents, recruited via convenience sampling, completed a series of measures comprising probabilistic reasoning tasks (perception of randomness, base rate, probability, and conjunction fallacy), the Reality Testing subscale of the Inventory of Personality Organization (IPO-RT), the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale, and a terrorism-related behavior change scale. Structural equation modeling examined three progressive models. Firstly, the Independence Model assumed that probabilistic reasoning, perception of risk and reality testing independently predicted terrorism-related behavior change. Secondly, the Mediation Model supposed that probabilistic reasoning and reality testing correlated, and indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change through perception of risk. Lastly, the Dual-Influence Model proposed that probabilistic reasoning indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk, independent of reality testing. Results indicated that performance on probabilistic reasoning tasks most strongly predicted perception of risk, and preference for an intuitive thinking style (measured by the IPO-RT) best explained terrorism-related behavior change. The combination of perception of risk with probabilistic reasoning ability in the Dual-Influence Model enhanced the predictive power of the analytical-rational route, with conjunction fallacy having a significant indirect effect on terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk. The Dual-Influence Model possessed superior fit and reported similar predictive relations between intuitive-experiential and analytical-rational routes and terrorism-related behavior change. The discussion critically examines these findings in relation to dual-processing frameworks. This

Perception of Risk and Terrorism-Related Behavior Change: Dual Influences of Probabilistic Reasoning and Reality Testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Denovan, Andrew; Dagnall, Neil; Drinkwater, Kenneth; Parker, Andrew; Clough, Peter

2017-01-01

The present study assessed the degree to which probabilistic reasoning performance and thinking style influenced perception of risk and self-reported levels of terrorism-related behavior change. A sample of 263 respondents, recruited via convenience sampling, completed a series of measures comprising probabilistic reasoning tasks (perception of randomness, base rate, probability, and conjunction fallacy), the Reality Testing subscale of the Inventory of Personality Organization (IPO-RT), the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale, and a terrorism-related behavior change scale. Structural equation modeling examined three progressive models. Firstly, the Independence Model assumed that probabilistic reasoning, perception of risk and reality testing independently predicted terrorism-related behavior change. Secondly, the Mediation Model supposed that probabilistic reasoning and reality testing correlated, and indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change through perception of risk. Lastly, the Dual-Influence Model proposed that probabilistic reasoning indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk, independent of reality testing. Results indicated that performance on probabilistic reasoning tasks most strongly predicted perception of risk, and preference for an intuitive thinking style (measured by the IPO-RT) best explained terrorism-related behavior change. The combination of perception of risk with probabilistic reasoning ability in the Dual-Influence Model enhanced the predictive power of the analytical-rational route, with conjunction fallacy having a significant indirect effect on terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk. The Dual-Influence Model possessed superior fit and reported similar predictive relations between intuitive-experiential and analytical-rational routes and terrorism-related behavior change. The discussion critically examines these findings in relation to dual-processing frameworks. This

Perception of Risk and Terrorism-Related Behavior Change: Dual Influences of Probabilistic Reasoning and Reality Testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Denovan

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The present study assessed the degree to which probabilistic reasoning performance and thinking style influenced perception of risk and self-reported levels of terrorism-related behavior change. A sample of 263 respondents, recruited via convenience sampling, completed a series of measures comprising probabilistic reasoning tasks (perception of randomness, base rate, probability, and conjunction fallacy, the Reality Testing subscale of the Inventory of Personality Organization (IPO-RT, the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale, and a terrorism-related behavior change scale. Structural equation modeling examined three progressive models. Firstly, the Independence Model assumed that probabilistic reasoning, perception of risk and reality testing independently predicted terrorism-related behavior change. Secondly, the Mediation Model supposed that probabilistic reasoning and reality testing correlated, and indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change through perception of risk. Lastly, the Dual-Influence Model proposed that probabilistic reasoning indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk, independent of reality testing. Results indicated that performance on probabilistic reasoning tasks most strongly predicted perception of risk, and preference for an intuitive thinking style (measured by the IPO-RT best explained terrorism-related behavior change. The combination of perception of risk with probabilistic reasoning ability in the Dual-Influence Model enhanced the predictive power of the analytical-rational route, with conjunction fallacy having a significant indirect effect on terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk. The Dual-Influence Model possessed superior fit and reported similar predictive relations between intuitive-experiential and analytical-rational routes and terrorism-related behavior change. The discussion critically examines these findings in relation to dual

Review on risk factors related to lower back disorders at workplace

Science.gov (United States)

A' Tifah Jaffar, Nur; Nasrull Abdol Rahman, Mohd

2017-08-01

This review examines the evidence of the occurrence of risk exposure on work-related lower back disorders in the workplace. This review also investigates potential interactions between the risk factors in the workplace which include heavy physical work risk factor, static work postures risk factor, frequent bending and twisting risk factor, lifting risk factor, pushing and pulling risk factor, repetitive work risk factor, vibration risk factor, psychological and psychosocial risk factor that may be associated with symptoms of musculoskeletal disorders of lower back. These risk factors can reinforce each other and their influence can also be mediated by cultural or social factors. A systematic review of the literature was carried out by searching using databases and the searching strategy was used combined keyword for risk factors, work-related lower back disorders, heavy physical work, static work postures, frequent bending and twisting, lifting, pushing and pulling, repetitive work, vibration, psychological and psychosocial risk factor. A total of 67 articles were identified and reviewed. The risk factors identified that related for low back disorder are seven which are heavy physical work, static work postures, frequent bending and twisting, lifting, pushing and pulling, repetitive work, vibration, psychological and psychosocial risk factor and the level of evidence supporting the relationship with lower back disorders also described such as strong, moderate, insufficient, limited and no evidence. This result confirms that, existing of higher physical and psychosocial demand related to reported risk factors of low back disorders. The result also showed that previous reviews had evaluated relationship between risk factors of low back disorders and specific types of musculoskeletal disorders. This review also highlights the scarves evidence regarding some of the frequently reported risk factors for work related lower back disorders.

The Role of Knowledge in the prevention of natural hazards and related risks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrico Miccadei

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Human activities, especially over the last two centuries, have had a huge impact on the environment and the landscape. Mankind is able to control and induce landscape changes but is subject to natural processes and hazards due to severe and extreme events (particularly earthquakes but also landslides and flooding and related risks. Risks are the result of hazards, exposed elements and vulnerability and they are consequently not only an expression of the natural environment, but also related to human interaction with nature. Risks need to be addressed regularly by means of a high level of knowledge in order to provide most up­to­date information for any decision which needs to be taken by any party involved. A high level of knowledge concerning natural hazards and related risks stems from the geological and geomorphological history and from the historical records of the natural processes and grows with multi­scale, multi­temporal and multidisciplinary studies and investigations, which include land management, economic and social issues. A strong effort has to be made in this way to improve risk assessment and the enforcement of existing laws and ­ if necessary ­ new laws, really stem from recent disasters. This will help to achieve improved and effective land management, based on an interdisciplinary approach in which expert geologists and land managers will play a role, because of the importance of natural processes in inducing risks.

E-cigarette use is differentially related to smoking onset among lower risk adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Wills, Thomas A; Sargent, James D; Gibbons, Frederick X; Pagano, Ian; Schweitzer, Rebecca

2016-09-01

E-cigarette use has been linked to onset of cigarette smoking among adolescents, but some commentators have suggested that this simply reflects high-risk adolescents being more likely to use e-cigarettes and to smoke. We tested whether the effect of e-cigarette use for smoking onset differs for youth who are lower versus higher on propensity to smoke. School-based survey with a longitudinal sample of 1136 students (9th-11th graders, mean age 14.7 years) in Hawaii, initially surveyed in 2013 (T1) and followed up 1 year later (T2). We assessed e-cigarette use, propensity to smoke based on 3 psychosocial factors known to predict smoking (rebelliousness, parental support and willingness to smoke), and cigarette smoking status. Analyses based on T1 never-smokers tested the relation of T1 e-cigarette use to T2 smoking status for participants lower versus higher on T1 propensity to smoke. The relation between T1 e-cigarette use and T2 smoking onset was stronger among participants with lower levels of rebelliousness and willingness and higher levels of parental support. A multiple logistic regression analysis with T2 smoking as the criterion tested the cross-product of T1 e-cigarette use and T1 smoking propensity score; the interaction (OR=0.88, p=0.01) indicated a significantly larger effect for smoking onset among lower risk youth. The results indicate e-cigarette use is a risk factor for smoking onset, not just a marker of high risk for smoking. This study provides evidence that e-cigarettes are recruiting lower risk adolescents to smoking, which has public health implications. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of risk-based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ranta, Jukka; Lindqvist, Roland; Hansson, Ingrid

2015-01-01

Shifting from traditional hazard-based food safety management toward risk-based management requires statistical methods for evaluating intermediate targets in food production, such as microbiological criteria (MC), in terms of their effects on human risk of illness. A fully risk-based evaluation...... of MC involves several uncertainties that are related to both the underlying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) model and the production-specific sample data on the prevalence and concentrations of microbes in production batches. We used Bayesian modeling for statistical inference...

The Experiences of Patients´ Close Relatives with Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer and Health-Therapeutic Personnel from the Determinants of Nutritional Behaviors: A Theory-based Qualitative Content Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MH Baghiani Moghadam

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Cancers are one of the most common causes of death at age groups above 50 years old that Life style modification has an important role in prevention of them. Diets are the most important factor at the risk of gastric cancer. The aim of present study was explanation of the Experiences of Patients´ Close Relatives with Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer and Health-Therapeutic Personnel from the Determinants of Nutritional Behaviors based on protection motivation theory. Methods: The present qualitative study was done with content analysis method application at Babol health-therapeutic centers covered by Babol University of Medical Sciences for eight months in 2013. semi-structure d face to face interview were used to collect the data with 9 participants from Patients´ Close Relatives with Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer and 19 participants from Health-Therapeutic Personnel. Data analysis and collection were simultaneously done by using the method of theory-based (directed or conductive content analysis. Results:From data analysis 487initial codes and after integration,186 main codes were extracted .This codes were pasted at 2 pre-determined categories and 7 pre-determined sub-categories related to protection motivation theory(perceived sensitivity, perceived severity, reward, fear, perceived response-efficacy, self-efficacy and perceived cost-benefit. The most main perceived problem, was the low level of awareness, attitude and practice at people about nutritional risk factors related to gastric cancer and a result the low level of disease fear. Conclusion: The findings of present study are the indicator of effective determinants on nutritional behaviors that can help to health-therapeutic policy –makers to provide and approve the most appropriate solutions and strategies with aim of changing these determinants in order to reduce nutritional risk factors related to gastric cancer.

[Risk and protection factors related to the consumption of psychoactive substances in undergraduate nursing students].

Science.gov (United States)

Morales, Blanca Nivia; Plazas, Merideidy; Sanchez, Rafael; Ventura, Carla Aparecida Arena

2011-06-01

This study aims to identify the frequency of risk and protection factors related to drug consumption among undergraduate nursing students. It is a cross-sectional study in which authors applied the instrument Risk and Protection Factors for the Consumption of Psychoactive Substances, validated for use with undergraduate nursing students. Data were analyzed through STATA 10. Three hundred and ninety students participated in the study. The domain "prejudice and appraisal", "social permissiveness and access to psychoactive substances", "social skills and self-control" are risk factors for drugs use in 100% of participants. "Spirituality" and "satisfaction with interpersonal relations" were predominant protective domains. Based on data, authors can conclude that the students did not consider the risks in alcohol and tobacco consumption, as they think it is normal and socially acceptable.

Managing long-term polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon contaminated soils: a risk-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Duan, Luchun; Naidu, Ravi; Thavamani, Palanisami; Meaklim, Jean; Megharaj, Mallavarapu

2015-06-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a family of contaminants that consist of two or more aromatic rings fused together. Soils contaminated with PAHs pose significant risk to human and ecological health. Over the last 50 years, significant research has been directed towards the cleanup of PAH-contaminated soils to background level. However, this achieved only limited success especially with high molecular weight compounds. Notably, during the last 5-10 years, the approach to remediate PAH-contaminated soils has changed considerably. A risk-based prioritization of remediation interventions has become a valuable step in the management of contaminated sites. The hydrophobicity of PAHs underlines that their phase distribution in soil is strongly influenced by factors such as soil properties and ageing of PAHs within the soil. A risk-based approach recognizes that exposure and environmental effects of PAHs are not directly related to the commonly measured total chemical concentration. Thus, a bioavailability-based assessment using a combination of chemical analysis with toxicological assays and nonexhaustive extraction technique would serve as a valuable tool in risk-based approach for remediation of PAH-contaminated soils. In this paper, the fate and availability of PAHs in contaminated soils and their relevance to risk-based management of long-term contaminated soils are reviewed. This review may serve as guidance for the use of site-specific risk-based management methods.

Cancer-related fatigue--mechanisms, risk factors, and treatments.

Science.gov (United States)

Bower, Julienne E

2014-10-01

Fatigue is one of the most common adverse effects of cancer that might persist for years after treatment completion in otherwise healthy survivors. Cancer-related fatigue causes disruption in all aspects of quality of life and might be a risk factor of reduced survival. The prevalence and course of fatigue in patients with cancer have been well characterized and there is growing understanding of the underlying biological mechanisms. Inflammation seems to have a key role in fatigue before, during, and after cancer-treatment. However, there is a considerable variability in the presentation of cancer-related fatigue, much of which is not explained by disease-related or treatment-related characteristics, suggesting that host factors might be important in the development and persistence of this symptom. Indeed, longitudinal studies have identified genetic, biological, psychosocial, and behavioural risk factors associated with cancer-related fatigue. Although no current gold-standard treatment for fatigue is available, a variety of intervention approaches have shown beneficial effects in randomized controlled trials, including physical activity, psychosocial, mind-body, and pharmacological treatments. This Review describes the mechanisms, risk factors, and possible interventions for cancer-related fatigue, focusing on recent longitudinal studies and randomized trials that have targeted fatigued patients.

Waterborne disease-related risk perceptions in the Sonora River basin, Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Morua, Agustin Robles; Halvorsen, Kathleen E; Mayer, Alex S

2011-05-01

Waterborne disease is estimated to cause about 10% of all diseases worldwide. However, related risk perceptions are not well understood, particularly in the developing world where waterborne disease is an enormous problem. We focus on understanding risk perceptions related to these issues in a region within northern Mexico. Our findings show how waterborne disease problems and solutions are understood in eight small communities along a highly contaminated river system. We found major differences in risk perceptions between health professionals, government officials, and lay citizens. Health professionals believed that a high level of human-waste-related risk existed within the region. Few officials and lay citizens shared this belief. In addition, few officials and lay citizens were aware of poor wastewater-management-related disease outbreaks and water contamination. Finally, aside from health professionals, a few interviewees understood the importance of basic hygiene and water treatment measures that could help to prevent disease. Our results add to the literature on environmentally-related risk perceptions in the developing world. We discuss recommendations for improving future human-wastewater-related risk communication within the region. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Development of new risk based regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nielsen, L.

1999-01-01

A short presentation of the oil and gas industry in Norway, and a brief overview of the regulatory regime in the petroleum sector in Norway is given. Risk analysis has been performed in Norway since 1981 and the various applications will be described. These risk analyses are quite different from a nuclear PSA and some of these differences will be commented. Risk based optimisation techniques such as RCM (Reliability Centred Maintenance) and Risk Based Inspection is used in the industry, with very limited support from the risk analysis. Some of the limitation that exist when such techniques are imported from other industries will be commented on. NPD (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate) is revising our regulations and some of the future plants when it comes to risk informed regulatory requirements will be presented. (au)

Dealing with project complexity by matrix-based propagation modelling for project risk analysis

OpenAIRE

Fang , Chao; Marle , Franck

2012-01-01

International audience; Engineering projects are facing a growing complexity and are thus exposed to numerous and interdependent risks. In this paper, we present a quantitative method for modelling propagation behaviour in the project risk network. The construction of the network requires the involvement of the project manager and related experts using the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) method. A matrix-based risk propagation model is introduced to calculate risk propagation and thus to re-eva...

Suicide risk in relation to air pollen counts: a study based on data from Danish registers

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Ping; Waltoft, Berit L; Mortensen, Preben B; Postolache, Teodor T

2013-01-01

Objectives Since the well-observed spring peak of suicide incidents coincides with the peak of seasonal aeroallergens as tree-pollen, we want to document an association between suicide and pollen exposure with empirical data from Denmark. Design Ecological time series study. Setting Data on suicide incidents, air pollen counts and meteorological status were retrieved from Danish registries. Participants 13 700 suicide incidents over 1304 consecutive weeks were obtained from two large areas covering 2.86 million residents. Primary and secondary outcome measures Risk of suicide associated with pollen concentration was assessed using a time series Poisson-generalised additive model. Results We noted a significant association between suicide risk and air pollen counts. A change of pollen counts levels from 0 to ‘10–suicides in the population, and from 0 to ‘30–100’ grains, a relative risk of 1.132. The observed association remained significant after controlling for effects of region, calendar time, temperature, cloud cover and humidity. Meanwhile, we observed a significant sex difference that suicide risk in men started to rise when there was a small increase of air pollen, while the risk in women started to rise until pollen grains reached a certain level. High levels of pollen had slightly stronger effect on risk of suicide in individuals with mood disorder than those without the disorder. Conclusions The observed association between suicide risk and air pollen counts supports the hypothesis that aeroallergens, acting as immune triggers, may precipitate suicide. PMID:23793651

Building-related risk factors and work-related lower respiratory symptoms in 80 office buildings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendell, M.J.; Naco, G.M.; Wilcox, T.G.; Sieber, W.K.

2002-01-01

We assessed building-related risk factors for lower respiratory symptoms in office workers. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health in 1993 collected data during indoor environmental health investigations of workplaces. We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess relationships between lower respiratory symptoms in office workers and risk factors plausibly related to microbiologic contamination. Among 2,435 occupants in 80 office buildings, frequent, work-related multiple lower respiratory symptoms were strongly associated, in multivariate models, with two risk factors for microbiologic contamination: poor pan drainage under cooling coils and debris in outside air intake. Associations tended to be stronger among those with a history of physician-diagnosed asthma. These findings suggest that adverse lower respiratory health effects from indoor work environments, although unusual, may occur in relation to poorly designed or maintained ventilation systems, particularly among previously diagnosed asthmatics. These findings require confirmation in more representative buildings.

Building-related risk factors and work-related lower respiratory symptoms in 80 office buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendell, M.J.; Naco, G.M.; Wilcox, T.G.; Sieber, W.K.

2002-01-01

We assessed building-related risk factors for lower respiratory symptoms in office workers. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health in 1993 collected data during indoor environmental health investigations of workplaces. We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess relationships between lower respiratory symptoms in office workers and risk factors plausibly related to microbiologic contamination. Among 2,435 occupants in 80 office buildings, frequent, work-related multiple lower respiratory symptoms were strongly associated, in multivariate models, with two risk factors for microbiologic contamination: poor pan drainage under cooling coils and debris in outside air intake. Associations tended to be stronger among those with a history of physician-diagnosed asthma. These findings suggest that adverse lower respiratory health effects from indoor work environments, although unusual, may occur in relation to poorly designed or maintained ventilation systems, particularly among previously diagnosed asthmatics. These findings require confirmation in more representative buildings

What are the real risks of sport-related concussion, and are they modifiable?

Science.gov (United States)

Randolph, Christopher; Kirkwood, Michael W

2009-07-01

Over the past two decades, the management of sport-related concussion has been the topic of increased attention in the scientific literature and in the popular media. Despite a proliferation of competing guidelines for concussion management, the widespread use of neuropsychological "baseline" testing designed to monitor postinjury recovery, and several prospective controlled studies of the natural history of concussion, there has been virtually no attempt to quantify the risks associated with sport-related concussion or to determine whether these risks are modifiable via management strategies. Using American football as a model, the short- and long-term risks of sport-related concussion are reviewed. It is concluded that serious short-term consequences of sport-related concussion are extremely rare and unlikely to be significantly modified via management strategies that rely on baseline testing. Other less serious short-term adverse outcomes are also quite rare, transient, and not likely to be altered by specific management guidelines. The long-term consequences of multiple sport-related head trauma remain unclear but are potentially of greater public health concern and should be the focus of increased research. Based on available evidence, there is little rationale for the use of rigid strategies or guidelines in the place of individual clinical decision-making in the management of these injuries.

Risk sharing relations and enforcement mechanisms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Barr, A.; Dekker, M.; Fafchamps, M.

2008-01-01

We investigate whether the set of available enforcement mechanisms affects the formation of risk sharing relations by applying dyadic regression analysis to data from a specifically designed behavioural experiment, two surveys and a genealogical mapping exercise. During the experiment participants

Increased Relative Risk of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Warmer Weather

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Milan Daniel

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE is a serious acute neuroinfection of humans caused by a tick-borne flavivirus. The disease is typically seasonal, linked to the host-seeking activity of Ixodes ricinus (predominantly nymphs, the principal European tick vector species. To address the need for accurate risk predictions of contracting TBE, data on 4,044 TBE cases reported in the Czech Republic during 2001–2006 were compared with questing activity of I. ricinus nymphs monitored weekly at a defined location for the same 6-year period. A time shift of 21 days between infected tick bite and recorded disease onset provided the optimal model for comparing the number of cases of TBE with numbers of questing nymphs. Mean annual distribution of TBE cases and tick counts showed a similar bimodal distribution. Significantly, the ratio of TBE cases to questing nymphs was highest in the summer-autumn period even though the number of questing nymphs peaked in the spring-summer period. However, this pattern changed during a period of extreme meteorological events of flooding and abnormally high temperatures, indicating that changes in climate affect the incidence of TBE. Previous studies failed to link human behavior with changes in incidence of TBE but showed extrinsic temperature impacts arbovirus replication. Hence, we hypothesize the apparent discrepancy between peak nymphal tick activity and greatest risk of contracting TBE is due to the effect of temperature on virus replication in the tick vector. Relative proportions of questing nymphs and the numbers of weeks in which they were found were greater in summer-autumn compared with spring-summer at near-ground temperatures >5°C and at standard day and weekly average temperatures of >15°C. Thus, during the summer-autumn period, the virus dose in infected tick bites is likely greater owing to increased virus replication at higher microclimatic temperatures, consequently increasing the relative risk of

A Simple Model to Rank Shellfish Farming Areas Based on the Risk of Disease Introduction and Spread.

Science.gov (United States)

Thrush, M A; Pearce, F M; Gubbins, M J; Oidtmann, B C; Peeler, E J

2017-08-01

The European Union Council Directive 2006/88/EC requires that risk-based surveillance (RBS) for listed aquatic animal diseases is applied to all aquaculture production businesses. The principle behind this is the efficient use of resources directed towards high-risk farm categories, animal types and geographic areas. To achieve this requirement, fish and shellfish farms must be ranked according to their risk of disease introduction and spread. We present a method to risk rank shellfish farming areas based on the risk of disease introduction and spread and demonstrate how the approach was applied in 45 shellfish farming areas in England and Wales. Ten parameters were used to inform the risk model, which were grouped into four risk themes based on related pathways for transmission of pathogens: (i) live animal movement, (ii) transmission via water, (iii) short distance mechanical spread (birds) and (iv) long distance mechanical spread (vessels). Weights (informed by expert knowledge) were applied both to individual parameters and to risk themes for introduction and spread to reflect their relative importance. A spreadsheet model was developed to determine quantitative scores for the risk of pathogen introduction and risk of pathogen spread for each shellfish farming area. These scores were used to independently rank areas for risk of introduction and for risk of spread. Thresholds were set to establish risk categories (low, medium and high) for introduction and spread based on risk scores. Risk categories for introduction and spread for each area were combined to provide overall risk categories to inform a risk-based surveillance programme directed at the area level. Applying the combined risk category designation framework for risk of introduction and spread suggested by European Commission guidance for risk-based surveillance, 4, 10 and 31 areas were classified as high, medium and low risk, respectively. © 2016 Crown copyright.

A relative risk comparison of criticality control strategies based on fresh fuel and burnup credit design bases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanders, T.L.

1989-01-01

The fresh fuel design basis provides some margin of safety, i.e., criticality safety is almost independent of loading operations if fuel designs do not change significantly over the next 40 years. However, the design basis enrichment for future nuclear fuel will most likely vary with time. As a result, it cannot be guaranteed that the perceived passivity of the concept will be maintained over the life cycle of a future cask system. Several options are available to ensure that the reliability of a burnup credit system is comparable to or greater than that of a system based on a fresh fuel assumption. Criticality safety and control reliability could increase with burnup credit implementation. The safety of a burnup credit system could be comparable to that for a system based on the fresh fuel assumption. A burnup credit philosophy could be implemented without any cost-benefit tradeoff. A burnup credit design basis could result in a significant reduction in total system risk as well as economic benefits. These reductions occur primarily as a result of increased cask capacities and, thus, fewer shipments. Fewer shipments also result in fewer operations over the useful life of a cask, and opportunities for error decrease. The system concept can be designed such that only benefits occur. These benefits could include enhanced criticality safety and the overall reliability of cask operations, as well as system risk and economic benefits. Thus, burnup credit should be available as an alternative for the criticality design of spent fuel shipping casks

Effects of risk-based multifactorial fall prevention on health-related quality of life among the community-dwelling aged: a randomized controlled trial

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isoaho Raimo

2007-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This study aimed to assess the effects of a risk-based, multifactorial fall prevention programme on health-related quality of life among the community-dwelling aged who had fallen at least once during the previous 12 months. Methods The study is a part of a single-centre, risk-based, multifactorial randomised controlled trial. The intervention lasted for 12 months and consisted of a geriatric assessment, guidance and treatment, individual instruction in fall prevention, group exercise, lectures on themes related to falling, psychosocial group activities and home exercise. Of the total study population (n = 591, 97% of eligible subjects, 513(251 in the intervention group and 262 in the control group participated in this study. The effect of the intervention on quality of life was measured using the 15D health-related quality of life instrument consisting of 15 dimensions. The data were analysed using the chi-square test or Fisher's exact test, the Mann-Whitney U-test and logistic regression. Results In men, the results showed significant differences in the changes between the intervention and control groups in depression (p = 0.017 and distress (p = 0.029 and marginally significant differences in usual activities (p = 0.058 and sexual activity (p = 0.051. In women, significant differences in the changes between the groups were found in usual activities (p = 0.005 and discomfort/symptoms (p = 0.047. For the subjects aged 65 to 74 years, significant differences in the changes between the groups were seen in distress (p = 0.037 among men and in usual activities (p = 0.011 among women. All improvements were in favour of the intervention group. Conclusion Fall prevention produced positive effects on some dimensions of health-related quality of life in the community-dwelling aged. Men benefited more than women.

Autoantibodies to IA-2beta improve diabetes risk assessment in high-risk relatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Achenbach, P; Bonifacio, E; Williams, A J K

2008-01-01

-positive participants (median age 12.1 years; 57% male), 113 developed diabetes (5 year cumulative risk 56%), and 148 were also GADA-positive and IAA-positive (4Ab-positive). IA2betaA were detected in 137 (65%) ICA/IA2A-positive participants and were associated with an increased 5 year diabetes risk (IA2beta......A-positive 65 vs 39% in IA2betaA-negative, p=0.0002). The effect was most marked in 4Ab-positive relatives (72% vs 52%, p=0.003). Metabolic testing further refined risk assessment. Among 101 4Ab-positive relatives with IA2betaA, the 5 year risk was 94% in those with a low FPIR (vs 50% in those with a normal...... FPIR, p4Ab/IA2betaA-positive participants with a low FPIR was 1.5 years. Multivariate analysis confirmed IA2betaA status, antibody number, young...

The Association between the Lipids Levels in Blood and Risk of Age-Related Macular Degeneration

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Yafeng Wang

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Lipid metabolism may be involved in the pathogenic mechanism of age-related macular degeneration (AMD. However, conflicting results have been reported in the associations of AMD with blood lipids. We performed a meta-analysis including a total of 19 studies to evaluate associations between blood lipids and this disease. The result reported that the high level of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C obtained with an increment of 1 mmol/L could result in a significantly increase in the AMD risk of approximately 18% (relative risk (RR, 1.18; 95% confidence interval (CI, 1.01 to 1.35; I2 = 53.8%; p = 0.007. High levels of total cholesterol (TC, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C, and triglycerides (TG were significantly associated with a decreased risk of AMD (RRs ranging from 0.92 to 0.95; all p < 0.05. The stratified analysis based on AMD subtypes showed that these blood lipids were only significantly associated with the risk of early AMD (all p < 0.05. The association between the blood lipids and AMD risk did not differ substantially based on the other characteristics of the participants. A high HDL-C level was associated with an increased AMD risk, whereas participants with high TC, LDL-C, and TG concentrations may show a decreased risk for this disease. Further well-designed large studies are warranted to confirm the conclusions.

Latent class analysis of accident risks in usage-based insurance: Evidence from Beijing.

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Wen; Deng, Yinglu; Jiang, Hai; Xie, Qianyan; Shen, Wei; Han, Weijian

2018-06-01

Car insurance is quickly becoming a big data industry, with usage-based insurance (UBI) poised to potentially change the business of insurance. Telematics data, which are transmitted from wireless devices in car, are widely used in UBI to obtain individual-level travel and driving characteristics. While most existing studies have introduced telematics data into car insurance pricing, the telematics-related characteristics are directly obtained from the raw data. In this study, we propose to quantify drivers' familiarity with their driving routes and develop models to quantify drivers' accident risks using the telematics data. In addition, we build a latent class model to study the heterogeneity in travel and driving styles based on the telematics data, which has not been investigated in literature. Our main results include: (1) the improvement to the model fit is statistically significant by adding telematics-related characteristics; (2) drivers' familiarity with their driving trips is critical to identify high risk drivers, and the relationship between drivers' familiarity and accident risks is non-linear; (3) the drivers can be classified into two classes, where the first class is the low risk class with 0.54% of its drivers reporting accidents, and the second class is the high risk class with 20.66% of its drivers reporting accidents; and (4) for the low risk class, drivers with high probability of reporting accidents can be identified by travel-behavior-related characteristics, while for the high risk class, they can be identified by driving-behavior-related characteristics. The driver's familiarity will affect the probability of reporting accidents for both classes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Method of assessing a lipid-related health risk based on ion mobility analysis of lipoproteins

Science.gov (United States)

Benner, W. Henry; Krauss, Ronald M.; Blanche, Patricia J.

2010-12-14

A medical diagnostic method and instrumentation system for analyzing noncovalently bonded agglomerated biological particles is described. The method and system comprises: a method of preparation for the biological particles; an electrospray generator; an alpha particle radiation source; a differential mobility analyzer; a particle counter; and data acquisition and analysis means. The medical device is useful for the assessment of human diseases, such as cardiac disease risk and hyperlipidemia, by rapid quantitative analysis of lipoprotein fraction densities. Initially, purification procedures are described to reduce an initial blood sample to an analytical input to the instrument. The measured sizes from the analytical sample are correlated with densities, resulting in a spectrum of lipoprotein densities. The lipoprotein density distribution can then be used to characterize cardiac and other lipid-related health risks.

Company Risk-related Disclosures in a Code Law Country: A Synopsis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonas Oliveira

2013-03-01

Full Text Available This synopsis provides a concise historical contextualisation of current risk disclosure issues, highlights major factors influencing contemporary risk reporting practices, and engages in a reflective overview of four recently published papers on aspects of corporate risk-related disclosures in a code law country, Portugal. The breadthand depth of our analysis is modest. Nonetheless we report findings indicating that risk-related disclosures are inadequate, lack transparency, and compound the difficulty of assessing the risk profile of a company. We contend that recent regulation initiatives have been of dubious effectiveness in improving the quality of riskinformation disclosed. In respect of the Portuguese context, we find that companies disclose risk-related information principally to reduce agency costs and to enhance corporate reputation. We contend that enhanced corporate accountability would be more likely to ensue if further disclosures of relevant risk-related information were mandated. One mechanism to do so would be through regulations recommended by the International Integrated Reporting Committee (IIRC.

Supplier Risk Assessment Based on Best-Worst Method and K-Means Clustering: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Merve Er Kara

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Supplier evaluation and selection is one of the most critical strategic decisions for developing a competitive and sustainable organization. Companies have to consider supplier related risks and threats in their purchasing decisions. In today’s competitive and risky business environment, it is very important to work with reliable suppliers. This study proposes a clustering based approach to group suppliers based on their risk profile. Suppliers of a company in the heavy-machinery sector are assessed based on 17 qualitative and quantitative risk types. The weights of the criteria are determined by using the Best-Worst method. Four factors are extracted by applying Factor Analysis to the supplier risk data. Then k-means clustering algorithm is applied to group core suppliers of the company based on the four risk factors. Three clusters are created with different risk exposure levels. The interpretation of the results provides insights for risk management actions and supplier development programs to mitigate supplier risk.

The capability concept – On how to define and describe capability in relation to risk, vulnerability and resilience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindbom, Hanna; Tehler, Henrik; Eriksson, Kerstin; Aven, Terje

2015-01-01

Capabilities-based planning and capability assessment are high on the agendas of several countries and organisations as part of their risk management and emergency preparedness. Despite this, few definitions of capability exist, and they are not easily related to concepts such as risk, vulnerability and resilience. The aim of the present study was thus to broaden the scientific basis of the risk field to also include the concept of capability. The proposed definition is based on a recently developed risk framework, and we define capability as the uncertainty about and the severity of the consequences of an activity given the occurrence of the initiating event and the performed task. We provide examples of how the response capability for a fictive scenario can be described using this definition, and illustrate how our definition can be used to analyse capability assessments prepared according to the Swedish crisis management system. We have analysed the content of 25 capability assessments produced in 2011 by stakeholders on local, regional and national level. It was concluded that none addressed uncertainty to any appreciable extent, and only a third described capability in terms of consequences and task, making it difficult to relate these capability assessments to risk assessments. - Highlights: • Few definitions of capability relate to definitions of risk, vulnerability and resilience. • We relate capability to risk, vulnerability and resilience. • We define capability using the components uncertainty, consequences, event and task

A CALCIUM-BASED INVASION RISK ASSESSMENT FOR ZEBRA AND QUAGGA MUSSELS (DREISSENA SPP.)

Science.gov (United States)

We used calcium concentration data from over 3000 stream and river sites across the contiguous United States to classify ecoregions relative to their risk for Dreissena species invasion. We defined risk based on calcium concentrations as: very low (< 12 mg L−1), low (12–20 mg L−1...

Relation of temperature and humidity to the risk of recurrent gout attacks.

Science.gov (United States)

Neogi, Tuhina; Chen, Clara; Niu, Jingbo; Chaisson, Christine; Hunter, David J; Choi, Hyon; Zhang, Yuqing

2014-08-15

Gout attack risk may be affected by weather (e.g., because of volume depletion). We therefore examined the association of temperature and humidity with the risk of recurrent gout attacks by conducting an internet-based case-crossover study in the United States (in 2003-2010) among subjects with a diagnosis of gout who had 1 or more attacks during 1 year of follow-up. We examined the association of temperature and humidity over the prior 48 hours with the risk of gout attacks using a time-stratified approach and conditional logistic regression. Among 632 subjects with gout, there was a significant dose-response relationship between mean temperature in the prior 48 hours and the risk of subsequent gout attack (P = 0.01 for linear trend). Higher temperatures were associated with approximately 40% higher risk of gout attack compared with moderate temperatures. There was a reverse J-shaped relationship between mean relative humidity and the risk of gout attacks (P = 0.03 for quadratic trend). The combination of high temperature and low humidity had the greatest association (odds ratio = 2.04, 95% confidence interval: 1.26, 3.30) compared with moderate temperature and relative humidity. Thus, high ambient temperature and possibly extremes of humidity were associated with an increased risk of gout attack, despite the likelihood that individuals are often in climate-controlled indoor environments. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

An approach to quantitative assessment of relative proliferation risks from nuclear fuel cycles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silvennoinen, P.; Vira, J.

1981-01-01

Feasibility of quantitative assessments of the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation is discussed in this paper. The proliferation risk is defined as a combined utility of the different fuel cycle processes or materials for the proscribed acquisition of a nuclear weapon. Based on a set of selected weighted criteria, the process utilities are calculated employing utility functions or fuzzy expectation values. The methods are compared to each other. The scheme appears feasible in relative comparisons while certain leeway must still be retained for political judgement. (author)

Bone and fall-related fracture risks in women and men with a recent clinical fracture.

Science.gov (United States)

van Helden, Svenhjalmar; van Geel, Antonia C M; Geusens, Piet P; Kessels, Alfons; Nieuwenhuijzen Kruseman, Arie C; Brink, Peter R G

2008-02-01

Worldwide fracture rates are increasing as a result of the aging population, and prevention, both primary and secondary, is an important public health goal. Therefore, we systematically analyzed risk factors in subjects with a recent clinical fracture. All men and women over fifty years of age who had been treated in the emergency department of, or hospitalized at, our institution because of a recent fracture during a one-year period were offered the opportunity to undergo an evidence-based bone and fall-related risk-factor assessment and bone densitometry. The women included in this study were also compared with a group of postmenopausal women without a fracture history who had been included in another cohort study. Of the 940 consecutive patients, 797 (85%) were eligible for this study and 568 (60%) agreed to participate. The prevalence of fall-related risk factors (75% [95% confidence interval = 71% to 78%]; n = 425) and the prevalence of bone-related risk factors (53% [95% confidence interval = 49% to 57%]; n = 299) at the time of fracture were higher than the prevalence of osteoporosis (35% [95% confidence interval = 31% to 39%]; n = 201) as defined by a dual x-ray absorptiometry T score of fall and bone-related risk factors were present irrespective of the fracture location, patient age, or gender. An overlap between bone and fall-related risk factors was found in 50% of the patients. After adjusting for age, weight, and height, we found that women with a fracture more frequently had a diagnosis of osteoporosis (odds ratio = 2.9; 95% confidence interval = 2.0 to 4.1) and had a more extensive history of falls (odds ratio = 4.0; 95% confidence interval = 2.7 to 5.9) than did the postmenopausal women without a fracture history. Men and women over fifty years of age who had recently sustained a clinical fracture had, at the time of that fracture, bone and fall-related risk factors that were greater than the risk predicted by the presence of osteoporosis. Risk

Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for examining healthcare professionals' assessments of risk factors. The relative importance of risk factors for falls in community-dwelling older people.

Science.gov (United States)

Pecchia, L; Bath, P A; Pendleton, N; Bracale, M

2011-01-01

A gap exists between evidence-based medicine and clinical-practice. Every day, healthcare professionals (HCPs) combine empirical evidence and subjective experience in order to maximize the effectiveness of interventions. Consequently, it is important to understand how HCPs interpret the research evidence and apply it in everyday practice. We focused on the prevention of falls, a common cause of injury-related morbidity and mortality in later life, for which there is a wide range of known risk factors. To use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to investigate the opinions of HCPs in prioritizing risk factors for preventing falls. We used the AHP to develop a hierarchy of risk factors for falls based on the knowledge and experience of experts. We submitted electronic questionnaires via the web, in order to reach a wider number of respondents. With a web service, we pooled the results and weighted the coherence and the experience of respondents. Overall, 232 respondents participated in the study: 32 in the technical pilot study, nine in the scientific pilot study and 191 respondents in the main study. We identified a hierarchy of 35 risk factors, organized in two categories and six sub-categories. The hierarchy of risk factors provides further insights into clinicians' perceptions of risk factors for falls. This hierarchy helps understand the relative importance that clinicians place on risk factors for falls in older people and why evidence-based guidelines are not always followed. This information may be helpful in improving intervention programs and in understanding how clinicians prioritize multiple risk factors in individual patients. The AHP method allows the opinions of HCPs to be investigated, giving appropriate weight to their coherence, background and experience.

A population-based study of race-specific risk for placental abruption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stamilio David M

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Efforts to elucidate risk factors for placental abruption are imperative due to the severity of complications it produces for both mother and fetus, and its contribution to preterm birth. Ethnicity-based differences in risk of placental abruption and preterm birth have been reported. We tested the hypotheses that race, after adjusting for other factors, is associated with the risk of placental abruption at specific gestational ages, and that there is a greater contribution of placental abruption to the increased risk of preterm birth in Black mothers, compared to White mothers. Methods We conducted a population-based cohort study using the Missouri Department of Health's maternally-linked database of all births in Missouri (1989–1997 to assess racial effects on placental abruption and the contribution of placental abruption to preterm birth, at different gestational age categories (n = 664,303. Results Among 108,806 births to Black mothers and 555,497 births to White mothers, 1.02% (95% CI 0.96–1.08 of Black births were complicated by placental abruption, compared to 0.71% (95% CI 0.69–0.73 of White births (aOR 1.32, 95% CI 1.22–1.43. The magnitude of risk of placental abruption for Black mothers, compared to White mothers, increased with younger gestational age categories. The risk of placental abruption resulting in term and extreme preterm births ( Conclusion Black women have an increased risk of placental abruption compared to White women, even when controlling for known coexisting risk factors. This risk increase is greatest at the earliest preterm gestational ages when outcomes are the poorest. The relative contribution of placental abruption to term births was greater in Black women, whereas the relative contribution of placental abruption to preterm birth was greater in White women.

Cost effectiveness of risk-based closures at UST sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scruton, K.M.; Baker, J.N.

1995-01-01

Risk-based closures have been achieved at Underground Storage Tank (UST) sites throughout the country for a major transportation company. The risk-based closures were cost-effective because a streamlined risk-based approach was used instead of the generic baseline risk assessment approach. USEPA has recently provided guidance encouraging the use of risk-based methodology for achieving closure at UST sites. The risk-based approach used in achieving the site closures involved an identification of potential human and ecological receptors and exposure pathways, and a comparison of maximum onsite chemical concentrations to applicable or relevant and appropriate requirements (ARARs). The ARARs used in the evaluation included Federal and/or State Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) for groundwater and risk-based screening levels for soils. If the maximum concentrations were above the screening levels, a baseline risk assessment was recommended. In several instances, however, the risk-based approach resulted in a regulatory agency acceptance of a ''no further action'' alternative at UST sites which did not pose a significant threat to human health and the environment. The cost of the streamlined risk-based approach is approximately $3,500, while a baseline risk assessment for the same UST site could cost up to $10,000 or more. The use of the streamlined risk-based approach has proven to be successful for achieving a ''no further action'' outcome for the client at a reasonable cost

Actuarial assessment of violence risk in hospital-based partner assault clinics.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilton, N Zoe; Harris, Grant T; Holder, Norah

2008-12-01

Hospital-based partner assault clinics are a relatively recent addition to the community response to partner violence. In this study, 66% of 111 women attending hospital clinics for partner assault were physically injured and 43% reported death threats. Few concurrently used other services (shelters or police) and most relied on female friends and relatives for help. Many participants who currently lived with the perpetrator were contemplating leaving but only a third had made plans to do so. Participants faced an unusually high risk of future assault, according to both victim interview using the ODARA actuarial risk assessment and their own perceptions. Findings imply an important role for partner assault clinics and the feasibility of the victim service sector's using the same actuarial risk assessments as the criminal justice system.

Spanish consensus on the risks and detection of antipsychotic drug-related hyperprolactinaemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Montejo, Ángel L; Arango, Celso; Bernardo, Miguel; Carrasco, José L; Crespo-Facorro, Benedicto; Cruz, Juan J; Del Pino, Javier; García Escudero, Miguel A; García Rizo, Clemente; González-Pinto, Ana; Hernández, Ana I; Martín Carrasco, Manuel; Mayoral Cleries, Fermin; Mayoral van Son, Jaqueline; Mories, M Teresa; Pachiarotti, Isabella; Ros, Salvador; Vieta, Eduard

2016-01-01

Iatrogenic hyperprolactinaemia (IHPRL) has been more frequently related to some antipsychotic drugs that provoke an intense blockade of dopamine D2 receptors. There is a wide variation in clinical practice, and perhaps some more awareness between clinicians is needed. Due to the high frequency of chronic treatment in severe mental patients, careful attention is recommended on the physical risk. IHPRL symptoms could be underestimated without routine examination. An intense scientific literature search was performed in order to draw up a multidisciplinary consensus, including different specialists of psychiatry, endocrinology, oncology and internal medicine, and looking for a consensus about clinical risk and detection of IHPRL following evidence-based medicine criteria levels (EBM I- IV). Short-term symptoms include amenorrhea, galactorrhoea, and sexual dysfunction with decrease of libido and erectile difficulties related to hypogonadism. Medium and long-term symptoms related to oestrogens are observed, including a decrease bone mass density, hypogonadism, early menopause, some types of cancer risk increase (breast and endometrial), cardiovascular risk increase, immune system disorders, lipids, and cognitive dysfunction. Prolactin level, gonadal hormones and vitamin D should be checked in all patients receiving antipsychotics at baseline although early symptoms (amenorrhea-galactorrhoea) may not be observed due to the risk of underestimating other delayed symptoms that may appear in the medium term. Routine examination of sexual dysfunction is recommended due to possible poor patient tolerance and low compliance. Special care is required in children and adolescents, as well as patients with PRL levels >50ng/ml (moderate hyperprolactinaemia). A possible prolactinoma should be investigated in patients with PRL levels >150ng/ml, with special attention to patients with breast/endometrial cancer history. Densitometry should be prescribed for males >50 years old

Cancer-related fatigue: Mechanisms, risk factors, and treatments

Science.gov (United States)

Bower, Julienne E.

2015-01-01

Fatigue is one of the most common and distressing side effects of cancer and its treatment, and may persist for years after treatment completion in otherwise healthy survivors. Cancer-related fatigue causes disruption in all aspects of quality of life and may be a risk factor for reduced survival. The prevalence and course of fatigue in cancer patients has been well characterized, and there is growing understanding of underlying biological mechanisms. Inflammation has emerged as a key biological pathway for cancer-related fatigue, with studies documenting links between markers of inflammation and fatigue before, during, and particularly after treatment. There is considerable variability in the experience of cancer-related fatigue that is not explained by disease- or treatment-related characteristics, suggesting that host factors may play an important role in the development and persistence of this symptom. Indeed, longitudinal studies have begun to identify genetic, biological, psychosocial, and behavioral risk factors for cancer-related fatigue. Given the multi-factorial nature of cancer-related fatigue, a variety of intervention approaches have been examined in randomized controlled trials, including physical activity, psychosocial, mind-body, and pharmacological treatments. Although there is currently no gold standard for treating fatigue, several of these approaches have shown beneficial effects and can be recommended to patients. This report provides a state of the science review of mechanisms, risk factors, and interventions for cancer-related fatigue, with a focus on recent longitudinal studies and randomized trials that have targeted fatigued patients. PMID:25113839

Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMDs) risk assessment at core assembly production of electronic components manufacturing company

Science.gov (United States)

Yahya, N. M.; Zahid, M. N. O.

2018-03-01

This study conducted to assess the work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMDs) among the workers at core assembly production in an electronic components manufacturing company located in Pekan, Pahang, Malaysia. The study is to identify the WMDs risk factor and risk level. A set of questionnaires survey based on modified Nordic Musculoskeletal Disorder Questionnaires have been distributed to respective workers to acquire the WMDs risk factor identification. Then, postural analysis was conducted in order to measure the respective WMDs risk level. The analysis were based on two ergonomics assessment tools; Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) and Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). The study found that 30 respondents out of 36 respondents suffered from WMDs especially at shoulder, wrists and lower back. The WMDs risk have been identified from unloading process, pressing process and winding process. In term of the WMDs risk level, REBA and RULA assessment tools have indicated high risk level to unloading and pressing process. Thus, this study had established the WMDs risk factor and risk level of core assembly production in an electronic components manufacturing company at Malaysia environment.

Effects of trust and governance on relational risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nooteboom, B.; Berger, J.; Noorderhaven, N.G.

In transaction cost economics, foist has been treated as redundant or even misleading. This study tested the effects of governance and trust the risk perceived by agents of firms in alliances. Two dimensions of relational risk were assessed: the probability that something will go wrong and the size

[Risk assessment of work-related stress: the case of a public administration].

Science.gov (United States)

Loi, Michela; Bellò, Benedetta; Mattana, Veronica

2015-01-01

The paper describes a case study of work related stress assessment in a public administration, based on an objective methodology (Romano, 2009). The Ispes1 forms (2010) have been used to perform the assessment. They have been filled during some focus group in which 45 workers have been involved, divided into 7 homogeneous groups relying on their department, back-office vs front-office typology of work and the office collocation. According to the Grounded Theory perspective, through the content analysis three further risk factors arose, comparing to the Ispesl forms, such as: (a) the quality of communication, (b) the relationship among and with leaders and colleagues, (c) the presence of discriminatory behaviours. Hence, on the basis of the results, mostly for a deeper analysis of work related stress assessment in a public administration, we suggest to consider these further risk factors.

Healthy co-twins of patients with affective disorders show reduced risk-related activation of the insula during a monetary gambling task

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Macoveanu, Julian; Miskowiak, Kamilla; Kessing, Lars V

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Healthy first-degree relatives of patients with affective disorders are at increased risk for affective disorders and express discrete structural and functional abnormalities in the brain reward system. However, value-based decision making is not well understood in these at-risk indiv......BACKGROUND: Healthy first-degree relatives of patients with affective disorders are at increased risk for affective disorders and express discrete structural and functional abnormalities in the brain reward system. However, value-based decision making is not well understood in these at...

Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

Science.gov (United States)

Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

Priority of a Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relation with a Normal Distribution in Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Lihong; Gong, Zaiwu

2017-10-10

As meteorological disaster systems are large complex systems, disaster reduction programs must be based on risk analysis. Consequently, judgment by an expert based on his or her experience (also known as qualitative evaluation) is an important link in meteorological disaster risk assessment. In some complex and non-procedural meteorological disaster risk assessments, a hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation (HFLPR) is often used to deal with a situation in which experts may be hesitant while providing preference information of a pairwise comparison of alternatives, that is, the degree of preference of one alternative over another. This study explores hesitation from the perspective of statistical distributions, and obtains an optimal ranking of an HFLPR based on chance-restricted programming, which provides a new approach for hesitant fuzzy optimisation of decision-making in meteorological disaster risk assessments.

Gender differences in the relations between work-related physical and psychosocial risk factors and musculoskeletal complaints

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hooftman, W.E.; Poppel, M.N.M. van; Beek, A.J. van der; Bongers, P.M.; Mechelen, W. van

2004-01-01

Gender differences in the prevalence of musculoskeletal complaints might be explained by differences in the effect of exposure to work-related physical and psychosocial risk factors. A systematic review was conducted to examine gender differences in the relations between these risk factors and

Network Security Risk Assessment System Based on Attack Graph and Markov Chain

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Fuxiong; Pi, Juntao; Lv, Jin; Cao, Tian

2017-10-01

Network security risk assessment technology can be found in advance of the network problems and related vulnerabilities, it has become an important means to solve the problem of network security. Based on attack graph and Markov chain, this paper provides a Network Security Risk Assessment Model (NSRAM). Based on the network infiltration tests, NSRAM generates the attack graph by the breadth traversal algorithm. Combines with the international standard CVSS, the attack probability of atomic nodes are counted, and then the attack transition probabilities of ones are calculated by Markov chain. NSRAM selects the optimal attack path after comprehensive measurement to assessment network security risk. The simulation results show that NSRAM can reflect the actual situation of network security objectively.

Backtesting for Risk-Based Regulatory Capital

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kerkhof, F.L.J.; Melenberg, B.

2002-01-01

In this paper we present a framework for backtesting all currently popular risk measurement methods (including value-at-risk and expected shortfall) using the functional delta method.Estimation risk can be taken explicitly into account.Based on a simulation study we provide evidence that tests for

Sexual Orientation- and Race-Based Discrimination and Sexual HIV Risk Behavior Among Urban MSM

Science.gov (United States)

Frye, Victoria; Nandi, Vijay; Egan, James; Cerda, Magdalena; Greene, Emily; Van Tieu, Hong; Ompad, Danielle C.; Hoover, Donald R.; Lucy, Debbie; Baez, Eduardo; Koblin, Beryl A.

2014-01-01

Understanding what social factors are associated with risk of HIV acquisition and transmission among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM) is a critical public health goal. Experiencing discrimination may increase risk of HIV infection among MSM. This analysis assessed relations between experiences of sexual orientation- and race-based discrimination and sexual HIV risk behavior among MSM in New York City. 1,369 MSM completed a self-administered computerized assessment of past 3-month sexual behavior, experience of social discrimination and other covariates. Regression models assessed relations between recent experience of discrimination and sexual HIV risk behavior. Mean age was 32 years; 32 % were white; 32 % Latino/Hispanic; 25 % African American/Black. Of MSM who self-reported HIV-positive or unknown status (377), 7 % (N = 27) reported having unprotected insertive anal intercourse with an HIV-negative or unknown status partner (“HIV transmission risk”). Of MSM who self-reported HIV-negative status (992), 11 % (110) reported unprotected receptive anal intercourse with an HIV-positive or unknown status partner (“HIV acquisition risk”). HIV acquisition risk was positively associated with sexual orientation-based discrimination in home or social neighborhoods, but not race-based discrimination. We observed that sexual orientation-based discrimination was associated with sexual HIV risk behavior among urban-dwelling MSM. Addressing environmental sources of this form of discrimination, as well as the psychological distress that may result, should be prioritized in HIV prevention efforts. PMID:25381561

Health risks associated with biogas. Assessment of health risks related to the injection of biogas into the natural gas network. Affset opinion. Collective expertise report. Final version

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

JAEG, Jean-Philippe; Bajeat, Philippe; Wenisch, Sandrine; Bellenfant, Gael; Godon, Jean-Jacques; Keck, Gerard; Lattes, Armand; Moletta-Denat, Marina; Naja, Ghinwa; Ramalho, Olivier; Zdanevitch, Isabelle; ALARY, Rene; RAMEL, Martine

2008-10-01

This publication reports a study which aimed at acquiring and analysing available bibliographical data regarding risks associated with the exposure to toxic compounds in relationship with the injection of biogas into the natural gas network, at characterising biogas composition and notably their content in potentially toxic compounds with respect to the currently distributed natural gas, at assessing health risks related to the exposure to toxic agents before and after combustion, also with respect to the currently distributed natural gas, and, based on this risk assessment, at determining biogas composition characteristics. Thus, after a presentation of the context, scope and modalities of this study, the report proposes an overview of various contextual aspects related to biogas (interest, production means, purification processes, valorisation, injection processes), the report discusses chemical risks related to biogas: bibliographical study, biogas chemical composition, chemical composition of biogas combustion residues. It also discusses microbiological risks. Several appendices are provided

Risk based limits for Operational Safety Requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cappucci, A.J. Jr.

1993-01-01

OSR limits are designed to protect the assumptions made in the facility safety analysis in order to preserve the safety envelope during facility operation. Normally, limits are set based on ''worst case conditions'' without regard to the likelihood (frequency) of a credible event occurring. In special cases where the accident analyses are based on ''time at risk'' arguments, it may be desirable to control the time at which the facility is at risk. A methodology has been developed to use OSR limits to control the source terms and the times these source terms would be available, thus controlling the acceptable risk to a nuclear process facility. The methodology defines a new term ''gram-days''. This term represents the area under a source term (inventory) vs time curve which represents the risk to the facility. Using the concept of gram-days (normalized to one year) allows the use of an accounting scheme to control the risk under the inventory vs time curve. The methodology results in at least three OSR limits: (1) control of the maximum inventory or source term, (2) control of the maximum gram-days for the period based on a source term weighted average, and (3) control of the maximum gram-days at the individual source term levels. Basing OSR limits on risk based safety analysis is feasible, and a basis for development of risk based limits is defensible. However, monitoring inventories and the frequencies required to maintain facility operation within the safety envelope may be complex and time consuming

Individual housing-based socioeconomic status predicts risk of accidental falls among adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Ryu, Euijung; Juhn, Young J; Wheeler, Philip H; Hathcock, Matthew A; Wi, Chung-Il; Olson, Janet E; Cerhan, James R; Takahashi, Paul Y

2017-07-01

Accidental falls are a major public health concern among people of all ages. Little is known about whether an individual-level housing-based socioeconomic status measure is associated with the risk of accidental falls. Among 12,286 Mayo Clinic Biobank participants residing in Olmsted County, Minnesota, subjects who experienced accidental falls between the biobank enrollment and September 2014 were identified using ICD-9 codes evaluated at emergency departments. HOUSES (HOUsing-based Index of SocioEconomic Status), a socioeconomic status measure based on individual housing features, was also calculated. Cox regression models were utilized to assess the association of the HOUSES (in quartiles) with accidental fall risk. Seven hundred eleven (5.8%) participants had at least one emergency room visit due to an accidental fall during the study period. Subjects with higher HOUSES were less likely to experience falls in a dose-response manner (hazard ratio: 0.58; 95% confidence interval: 0.44-0.76 for comparing the highest to the lowest quartile). In addition, the HOUSES was positively associated with better health behaviors, social support, and functional status. The HOUSES is inversely associated with accidental fall risk requiring emergency care in a dose-response manner. The HOUSES may capture falls-related risk factors through housing features and socioeconomic status-related psychosocial factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the role of risk-taking behaviour in causation of serious road crash-related injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Cathy; McClure, Rod

2004-05-01

This study was designed to quantify the increased risk of road crash-related injury, which can be attributed to risk-taking behaviour. A case-control study was conducted to compare motor vehicle drivers (car and bike) who had been hospitalised for injuries following crashes with population-based controls. Cases were recruited prospectively over 12 months and controls were randomly selected from license holders (car and bike) living in the same geographical location as cases. A self-administered questionnaire was used to ascertain participants' driving behaviour, general risk-taking behaviour and selected demographic characteristics. After adjusting for demographic variables, number of years of driving and total distance driven per week, logistic regression analysis showed that a high risk acceptance was associated with an eight-fold increased risk of having a crash that resulted in serious injury (OR 7.8, 95% CI 4.2-15.8). The findings of this study support the suggestion that certain host factors increase the risk of crash-related serious injury. There would appear to be a reasonable argument for persisting with injury prevention programmes, which concentrate on host as well as environment risk factor reduction.

Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiaramonte, G.R.

1995-01-01

This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

Nuclear fuel cycle risk assessment: survey and computer compilation of risk-related literature. [Once-through Cycle and Plutonium Recycle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yates, K.R.; Schreiber, A.M.; Rudolph, A.W.

1982-10-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has initiated the Fuel Cycle Risk Assessment Program to provide risk assessment methods for assistance in the regulatory process for nuclear fuel cycle facilities other than reactors. Both the once-through cycle and plutonium recycle are being considered. A previous report generated by this program defines and describes fuel cycle facilities, or elements, considered in the program. This report, the second from the program, describes the survey and computer compilation of fuel cycle risk-related literature. Sources of available information on the design, safety, and risk associated with the defined set of fuel cycle elements were searched and documents obtained were catalogued and characterized with respect to fuel cycle elements and specific risk/safety information. Both US and foreign surveys were conducted. Battelle's computer-based BASIS information management system was used to facilitate the establishment of the literature compilation. A complete listing of the literature compilation and several useful indexes are included. Future updates of the literature compilation will be published periodically. 760 annotated citations are included.

Value at risk estimation with entropy-based wavelet analysis in exchange markets

Science.gov (United States)

He, Kaijian; Wang, Lijun; Zou, Yingchao; Lai, Kin Keung

2014-08-01

In recent years, exchange markets are increasingly integrated together. Fluctuations and risks across different exchange markets exhibit co-moving and complex dynamics. In this paper we propose the entropy-based multivariate wavelet based approaches to analyze the multiscale characteristic in the multidimensional domain and improve further the Value at Risk estimation reliability. Wavelet analysis has been introduced to construct the entropy-based Multiscale Portfolio Value at Risk estimation algorithm to account for the multiscale dynamic correlation. The entropy measure has been proposed as the more effective measure with the error minimization principle to select the best basis when determining the wavelet families and the decomposition level to use. The empirical studies conducted in this paper have provided positive evidence as to the superior performance of the proposed approach, using the closely related Chinese Renminbi and European Euro exchange market.

On accounting difficulties: risks related to nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Plot, E.; Vidal, O.

2014-01-01

An extreme risk has a very slight probability but potentially heavy consequences. Despite the existence of 3 accountancy methods for dealing with them (provisions, contingent liabilities and insurance), the transposition of such risks into financial statements is based on a sequential analysis of both the probability of the risk happening and the ability to estimate the effects. This method keeps us from taking into account risks with a highly uncertain probability of occurrence, such as accidents at nuclear power plants - independently of the 'amount' at stake. As management reports from firms concerned by nuclear risks show, the diffusion of qualitative information does not offset this gap in bookkeeping. (authors)

On accounting difficulties: Risks related to nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Plot, Emmanuelle; Vidal, Olivier

2014-01-01

An extreme risk has a very slight probability but potentially heavy consequences. Despite the existence of three accountancy methods for dealing with them (provisions, contingent liabilities and insurance), the transposition of such risks into financial statements is based on a sequential analysis of both the probability of the risk happening and the ability to estimate the effects. This method keeps us from taking into account risks with a highly uncertain probability of occurrence, such as accidents at nuclear power plants - independently of the 'amount' at stake. As management reports from firms concerned by nuclear risks show, the diffusion of qualitative information does not offset this gap in bookkeeping

Risk-based ranking of dominant contributors to maritime pollution events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wheeler, T.A.

1993-01-01

This report describes a conceptual approach for identifying dominant contributors to risk from maritime shipping of hazardous materials. Maritime transportation accidents are relatively common occurrences compared to more frequently analyzed contributors to public risk. Yet research on maritime safety and pollution incidents has not been guided by a systematic, risk-based approach. Maritime shipping accidents can be analyzed using event trees to group the accidents into 'bins,' or groups, of similar characteristics such as type of cargo, location of accident (e.g., harbor, inland waterway), type of accident (e.g., fire, collision, grounding), and size of release. The importance of specific types of events to each accident bin can be quantified. Then the overall importance of accident events to risk can be estimated by weighting the events' individual bin importance measures by the risk associated with each accident bin. 4 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs

Host-Country Related Risk Factors in International Construction: Meta-Analysis

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Güzin AYDOGAN

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Internationalization has been on the agenda of construction firms as a strategic option in global competition. Due to globalization every sector including the construction industry has faced with high levels of competitiveness, uncertainty, and risk. International construction involves common risks to domestic construction, as well as risks that are related to the host country. These risks have serious effects on the performance of international projects. Since the sustainable competitiveness of international contractors depends largely on the effective management of these risks, their assessment becomes vital for the success of international contractors. The main aim of this study is to analyse the risks for international construction projects that are related to the host country. Meta-analysis technique is used in order to determine these risks. This paper, therefore, reviews the literature that has been published in four most respected construction and management journals, these being; Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Journal of Management in Engineering, Construction Management and Economics, and International Journal of Project Management for the period of 2000-2010. International construction risk assessment models are also reviewed within the context of this study, since host country related risk factors were found to have serious effects on the profitability of international contractors due to literature review. As a result; political stability, law and regulations, exchange rate risk, cultural differences, inflation, expropriation, tax discrimination, language barrier, bribery and corruption, force majeure, and societal conflicts in the host country are found to be the most important risk factors in international construction. Findings of this study can be used in risk assessment models for international construction projects.

Effects of Geographic Diversification on Risk Pooling to Mitigate Drought-Related Financial Losses for Water Utilities

Science.gov (United States)

Baum, Rachel; Characklis, Gregory W.; Serre, Marc L.

2018-04-01

As the costs and regulatory barriers to new water supply development continue to rise, drought management strategies have begun to rely more heavily on temporary conservation measures. While these measures are effective, they often lead to intermittent and unpredictable reductions in revenues that are financially disruptive to water utilities, raising concerns over lower credit ratings and higher rates of borrowing for this capital intensive sector. Consequently, there is growing interest in financial risk management strategies that reduce utility vulnerabilities. This research explores the development of financial index insurance designed to compensate a utility for drought-related losses. The focus is on analyzing candidate hydrologic indices that have the potential to be used by utilities across the US, increasing the potential for risk pooling, which would offer the possibility of both lower risk management costs and more widespread implementation. This work first analyzes drought-related financial risks for 315 publicly operated water utilities across the country and examines the effectiveness of financial contracts based on several indices both in terms of their correlation with utility revenues and their spatial autocorrelation across locations. Hydrologic-based index insurance contracts are then developed and tested over a 120 year period. Results indicate that risk pooling, even under conditions in which droughts are subject to some level of spatial autocorrelation, has the potential to significantly reduce the cost of managing financial risk.

A novel approach to population-based risk stratification, comprising individualized lifestyle intervention in Danish general practice to prevent chronic diseases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bruun Larsen, Lars; Søndergaard, Jens; Halling, Anders

2017-01-01

Early detection of patients at risk seems to be effective for reducing the prevalence of lifestyle-related chronic diseases. We aim to test the feasibility of a novel intervention for early detection of lifestyle-related chronic diseases based on a population-based stratification using a combinat......Early detection of patients at risk seems to be effective for reducing the prevalence of lifestyle-related chronic diseases. We aim to test the feasibility of a novel intervention for early detection of lifestyle-related chronic diseases based on a population-based stratification using...

Roadway related tort liability and risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-01

This workbook provide government employees background information related to tort liability and risk management. Past experience with lawsuits against government entities are summarized. The reasons for the lawsuits and results are analyzed. The obje...

Risk of Debt-Based Financing in Indonesian Islamic Banking

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Kharisya Ayu Effendi

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to know the risk of debt-based financing in Islamic banking in Indonesia by using an accounting based calculation, those are NPF analysis, Credit risk Z-score and Altman Z-score. This study is telling about the risk of debt-based finacing on Indonesian Islamic banking using an accounting based measurement, those are NPF analysis, Credit Risk Z-score analysis and Altman Z-score analysis. The data was obtained from 2011 to 2015 from the website of each bank. The result is a risk on debt-based financing on Indonesian Islamic banking is low. The measurement using 3 accounting based measurement tool gives a consistent result, that is Indonesian Islamic banking use a debt-based financing have a high financial stability and a low risk.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v9i2.4821

European Approaches to Work-Related Stress: A Critical Review on Risk Evaluation

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Silvia Zoni

2012-03-01

Full Text Available In recent years, various international organizations have raised awareness regarding psychosocial risks and work-related stress. European stakeholders have also taken action on these issues by producing important documents, such as position papers and government regulations, which are reviewed in this article. In particular, 4 European models that have been developed for the assessment and management of work-related stress are considered here. Although important advances have been made in the understanding of work-related stress, there are still gaps in the translation of this knowledge into effective practice at the enterprise level. There are additional problems regarding the methodology in the evaluation of work-related stress. The European models described in this article are based on holistic, global and participatory approaches, where the active role of and involvement of workers are always emphasized. The limitations of these models are in the lack of clarity on preventive intervention and, for two of them, the lack of instrument standardization for risk evaluation. The comparison among the European models to approach work-related stress, although with limitations and socio-cultural differences, offers the possibility for the development of a social dialogue that is important in defining the correct and practical methodology for work stress evaluation and prevention.

European approaches to work-related stress: a critical review on risk evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Zoni, Silvia; Lucchini, Roberto G

2012-03-01

In recent years, various international organizations have raised awareness regarding psychosocial risks and work-related stress. European stakeholders have also taken action on these issues by producing important documents, such as position papers and government regulations, which are reviewed in this article. In particular, 4 European models that have been developed for the assessment and management of work-related stress are considered here. Although important advances have been made in the understanding of work-related stress, there are still gaps in the translation of this knowledge into effective practice at the enterprise level. There are additional problems regarding the methodology in the evaluation of work-related stress. The European models described in this article are based on holistic, global and participatory approaches, where the active role of and involvement of workers are always emphasized. The limitations of these models are in the lack of clarity on preventive intervention and, for two of them, the lack of instrument standardization for risk evaluation. The comparison among the European models to approach work-related stress, although with limitations and socio-cultural differences, offers the possibility for the development of a social dialogue that is important in defining the correct and practical methodology for work stress evaluation and prevention.

Risk assessment related to manual handling on choosen work possition in foundry Alstom Power Sp. z o. o.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Kowal

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Manual handling remains one of the different types of transport inside working place, although technological progress and modernorganization of work. Manual transport as a transport inside working place is related to foundry industry. According to polish lawregulations employer has to give consideration to manual handling in professional risk assessment and introduce actions for manualhandling reduction. In Foundry Elblag case there is found that in many processes manual handling are made by workers. For example wecan choose melting processes (additives manual feeding, mixing and pulling metallurgical slag, etc. or fettling processes like grinding.Objective of that analysis was to define level of risk related to manual handling in work stand chosen and define activities impacted onrisk assessment result with biggest range. For risk reduction, technical and organizational solutions were shown (better ergonomically work stand, method of work and worker’s awareness about good practices. In this study methods related to manual handling risk assessment were described, focus on KIM method used in Foundry Elblag. Key Item Method allow to estimate the risk by simple calculation based on key indicators (time rating points, rating points of mass, posture or work condition. Points were chosen based on timekeeping, information from workers and foreman.

Risk based inspection experience from the European chemical- and petrochemical industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristensen, Hans; Jeppesen, Leif; Larsen, Bjarne; Kim, Na Yon

2001-01-01

As an inspection vendor with 60 years of experience and with more than 25 years of experience as manufacturer of the Automated Ultrasonic NDT systems, the P-scan systems, FORCE Institute is continuously analysing the market for NDT. This is done to assure that both the equipment product line and the service mix provided by FORCE Institute are meeting the requirements from the industry today and in the future. The concept of Risk Based Inspection Programmes were adopted early by the offshore industry and has in the recent years been adopted by many other industries as a reliable and cost efficient way of maintaining a production facility. A Risk/Reliability Based Inspection Programme is a 'living organism' that constantly needs information if it shall be of any value and NDT information is only one type of information that is required. The NDT information required is normally related to corrosion/base material information and weld integrity information. NDT as an integrated part of a plants maintenance system is, in Europe, currently influenced by the following tendencies which all are related to 'Risk Based Inspection': · Increased use of Base-Line Inspections · Reduction in the use of repeated inspections(qualitative- instead of quantitative Inspections). · Inspection results are fed directly into the plant maintenance system. · Fitness-for-Purpose acceptance criteria instead of conventional acceptance criteria. As repeatability and accuracy is a key issue for the data, automated ultrasonic inspection is increasingly used as an alternative to manual ultrasonic inspection, but due to the physical size of most automated ultrasonic inspection systems the gain in productivity has not been as significant as the gain in repeatability and accuracy. In this paper some of FORCE Institute's practical experiences with examinations carried out in connection with Risk Based Inspection is used to illustrate the above described tendencies. Not only examples using automated

Work-related stress, inability to relax after work and risk of adult asthma: a population-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Loerbroks, A; Gadinger, M C; Bosch, J A; Stürmer, T; Amelang, M

2010-10-01

There is an extensive literature linking stressful work conditions to adverse health outcomes. Notwithstanding, the relationship with asthma has not been examined, although various other measures of psychological stress have been associated with asthma. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the relation between work stress and asthma prevalence and incidence. We used data from a population-based cohort study (n = 5114 at baseline in 1992-1995 and n = 4010 at follow-up in 2002/2003). Asthma was measured by self-reports. Two scales that assessed psychologically adverse work conditions were extracted from a list of work-condition items by factor analysis (these scales were termed 'work stress' and 'inability to relax after work'). For each scale, the derived score was employed both as continuous z-score and as categorized variable in analyses. Associations with asthma were estimated by prevalence ratios (PRs) and risk ratios (RRs) using Poisson regression with a log-link function adjusting for demographics, health-related lifestyles, body mass index and family history of asthma. Analyses were restricted to those in employment (n = 3341). Work stress and inability to relax z-scores were positively associated with asthma prevalence (PR = 1.15, 95%CI = 0.97, 1.36 and PR = 1.43, 95%CI = 1.12, 1.83, respectively). Prospective analyses using z-scores showed that for each 1 standard deviation increase in work stress and inability to relax, the risk of asthma increased by approximately 40% (RR for work stress = 1.46, 95%CI = 1.06, 2.00; RR for inability to relax = 1.39, 95%CI = 1.01, 1.91). Similar patterns of associations were observed in analyses of categorized exposures. This is the first study to show a cross-sectional and longitudinal association of work stress with asthma.

Neural Network-Based Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Using Feature Correlation Analysis

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Jae Kwon Kim

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Of the machine learning techniques used in predicting coronary heart disease (CHD, neural network (NN is popularly used to improve performance accuracy. Objective. Even though NN-based systems provide meaningful results based on clinical experiments, medical experts are not satisfied with their predictive performances because NN is trained in a “black-box” style. Method. We sought to devise an NN-based prediction of CHD risk using feature correlation analysis (NN-FCA using two stages. First, the feature selection stage, which makes features acceding to the importance in predicting CHD risk, is ranked, and second, the feature correlation analysis stage, during which one learns about the existence of correlations between feature relations and the data of each NN predictor output, is determined. Result. Of the 4146 individuals in the Korean dataset evaluated, 3031 had low CHD risk and 1115 had CHD high risk. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve of the proposed model (0.749 ± 0.010 was larger than the Framingham risk score (FRS (0.393 ± 0.010. Conclusions. The proposed NN-FCA, which utilizes feature correlation analysis, was found to be better than FRS in terms of CHD risk prediction. Furthermore, the proposed model resulted in a larger ROC curve and more accurate predictions of CHD risk in the Korean population than the FRS.

Relative risk site evaluation for buildings 7740 and 7741 Fort Campbell, Kentucky

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Last, G.V.; Gilmore, T.J.; Bronson, F.J.

1998-01-01

Buildings 7740 and 7741 are a part of a former nuclear weapon`s storage and maintenance facility located in the southeastern portion of Fort Campbell, Kentucky. This underground tunnel complex was originally used as a classified storage area beginning in 1949 and continuing until 1969. Staff from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory recently completed a detailed Relative Risk Site Evaluation of the facility. This evaluation included (1) obtaining engineering drawings of the facility and associated structures, (2) conducting detailed radiological surveys, (3) air sampling, (4) sampling drainage systems, and (5) sampling the underground wastewater storage tank. Ten samples were submitted for laboratory analysis of radionuclides and priority pollutant metals, and two samples submitted for analysis of volatile organic compounds. No volatile organic contaminants were detected using field instruments or laboratory analyses. However, several radionuclides and metals were detected in water and/or soil/sediment samples collected from this facility. Of the radionuclides detected, only {sup 226}Ra may have come from facility operations; however, its concentration is at least one order of magnitude below the relative-risk comparison value. Several metals (arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, copper, mercury, lead, and antimony) were found to exceed the relative-risk comparison values for water, while only arsenic, cadmium, and lead were found to exceed the relative risk comparison values for soil. Of these constituents, it is believed that only arsenic, beryllium, mercury, and lead may have come from facility operations. Other significant hazards posed by the tunnel complex include radon exposure and potentially low oxygen concentrations (<19.5% in atmosphere) if the tunnel complex is not allowed to vent to the outside air. Asbestos-wrapped pipes, lead-based paint, rat poison, and possibly a selenium rectifier are also present within the tunnel complex.

Cancer Risk in Relatives of Testicular Cancer Patients by Histology Type and Age at Diagnosis: A Joint Study from Five Nordic Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Kharazmi, Elham; Hemminki, Kari; Pukkala, Eero; Sundquist, Kristina; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Tretli, Steinar; Olsen, Jörgen H; Fallah, Mahdi

2015-08-01

None of the population-based epidemiologic studies to date has had a large enough sample size to show the familial risk of testicular cancer (TC) by age at diagnosis for patients and their relatives or for rare histologic subtypes. To estimate absolute and relative risks of TC in relatives of TC patients by age at diagnosis in patients and their relatives and histological subtypes. In a joint population-based cohort study, 97 402 first-degree relatives of 21 254 TC patients who were diagnosed between 1955 and 2010 in five European countries were followed for cancer incidence. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were estimated using histology-, age-, period-, and country-specific incidence rates as references. Lifetime cumulative risks were also calculated. The lifetime cumulative risk of TC in brothers of a patient with TC was 2.3%, which represents a fourfold increase in risk (SIR 4.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.6-4.6) compared to the general population. TC in a father increased the risk by up to twofold in his son (95% CI 1.7-2.4; lifetime risk 1.2%) and vice versa. When there were two or more TC patients diagnosed in a family, the lifetime TC risk for relatives was 10-11%. Depending on age at diagnosis, twins had a 9-74% lifetime risk of TC. Family history of most of the histologic subtypes of TC increased the risk of concordant and most discordant subtypes. There was a tendency toward concordant age at diagnosis of TC among relatives. This study provides clinically relevant age-specific cancer risk estimates for relatives of TC patients. Familial TC patients tended to develop TC at an age close to the age at diagnosis of TC among their relatives, which is a novel finding of this study. This joint European population study showed that sons and brothers of testicular cancer patients are at higher risk of developing this cancer at an age close to the age at diagnosis of their relatives. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Risk-based inspection--Development of guidelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-07-01

Effective inservice inspection programs can play a significant role in minimizing equipment and structural failures. Most of the current inservice inspection programs for light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant components are based on experience and engineers' qualitative judgment. These programs include only an implicit consideration of risk, which combines the probability of failure of a component under its operation and loading conditions and the consequences of such failure, if it occurs. This document recommends appropriate methods for establishing a risk-based inspection program for LWR nuclear power plant components. The process has been built from a general methodology (Volume 1) and has been expanded to involve five major steps: defining the system; evaluating qualitative risk assessment results; using this and information from plant probabilistic risk assessments to perform a quantitative risk analysis; selecting target failure probabilities; and developing an inspection program for components using economic decision analysis and structural reliability assessment methods

Risk factors of age-related macular degeneration in Argentina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Eugenia Nano

2013-04-01

Full Text Available PURPOSES: To assess the risk factors of age-related macular degeneration in Argentina using a case-control study. METHODS: Surveys were used for subjects' antioxidant intake, age/gender, race, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes (and type of treatment, smoking, sunlight exposure, red meat consumption, fish consumption, presence of age-related macular degeneration and family history of age-related macular degeneration. Main effects models for logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression were used to analyze the results. RESULTS: There were 175 cases and 175 controls with a mean age of 75.4 years and 75.5 years, respectively, of whom 236 (67.4% were female. Of the cases with age-related macular degeneration, 159 (45.4% had age-related macular degeneration in their left eyes, 154 (44.0% in their right eyes, and 138 (39.4% in both eyes. Of the cases with age-related macular degeneration in their left eyes, 47.8% had the dry type, 40.3% had the wet type, and the type was unknown for 11.9%. The comparable figures for right eyes were: 51.9%, 34.4%, and 13.7%, respectively. The main effects model was dominated by higher sunlight exposure (OR [odds ratio]: 3.3 and a family history of age-related macular degeneration (OR: 4.3. Other factors included hypertension (OR: 2.1, smoking (OR: 2.2, and being of the Mestizo race, which lowered the risk of age-related macular degeneration (OR: 0.40. Red meat/fish consumption, body mass index, and iris color did not have an effect. Higher age was associated with progression to more severe age-related macular degeneration. CONCLUSION: Sunlight exposure, family history of age-related macular degeneration, and an older age were the significant risk factors. There may be other variables, as the risk was not explained very well by the existing factors. A larger sample may produce different and better results.

Comparison of the Validity of Four Fall-Related Psychological Measures in a Community-Based Falls Risk Screening

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Delilah S.; Ellis, Rebecca; Kosma, Maria; Fabre, Jennifer M.; McCarter, Kevin S.; Wood, Robert H.

2011-01-01

We examined the measurement properties of fall-related psychological instruments with a sample of 133 older adults (M age = 74.4 years, SD = 9.4). Measures included the Comprehensive Falls Risk Screening Instrument, Falls-efficacy Scale-International (FES-I), Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC), modified Survey of Activities and Fear of…

Prostate cancer risk prediction based on complete prostate cancer family history.

Science.gov (United States)

Albright, Frederick; Stephenson, Robert A; Agarwal, Neeraj; Teerlink, Craig C; Lowrance, William T; Farnham, James M; Albright, Lisa A Cannon

2015-03-01

Prostate cancer (PC) relative risks (RRs) are typically estimated based on status of close relatives or presence of any affected relatives. This study provides RR estimates using extensive and specific PC family history. A retrospective population-based study was undertaken to estimate RRs for PC based on complete family history of PC. A total of 635,443 males, all with ancestral genealogy data, were analyzed. RRs for PC were determined based upon PC rates estimated from males with no PC family history (without PC in first, second, or third degree relatives). RRs were determined for a variety of constellations, for example, number of first through third degree relatives; named (grandfather, father, uncle, cousins, brothers); maternal, paternal relationships, and age of onset. In the 635,443 males analyzed, 18,105 had PC. First-degree RRs ranged from 2.46 (=1 first-degree relative affected, CI = 2.39-2.53) to 7.65 (=4 first-degree relatives affected, CI = 6.28-9.23). Second-degree RRs for probands with 0 affected first-degree relatives ranged from 1.51 (≥1 second-degree relative affected, CI = 1.47-1.56) to 3.09 (≥5 second-degree relatives affected, CI = 2.32-4.03). Third-degree RRs with 0 affected first- and 0 affected second-degree relatives ranged from 1.15 (≥1 affected third-degree relative, CI = 1.12-1.19) to 1.50 (≥5 affected third-degree relatives, CI = 1.35-1.66). RRs based on age at diagnosis were higher for earlier age at diagnoses; for example, RR = 5.54 for ≥1 first-degree relative diagnosed before age 50 years (CI = 1.12-1.19) and RR = 1.78 for >1 second-degree relative diagnosed before age 50 years, CI = 1.33, 2.33. RRs for equivalent maternal versus paternal family history were not significantly different. A more complete PC family history using close and distant relatives and age at diagnosis results in a wider range of estimates of individual RR that are potentially more accurate than RRs estimated

Application of REVEAL-W to risk-based configuration control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dezfuli, H.; Meyer, J.; Modarres, M.

1994-01-01

Over the past two years, the concept of risk-based configuration control has been introduced to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the nuclear industry. Converting much of the current, deterministically based regulation of nuclear power plants to risk-based regulation can result in lower levels of risk while relieving unnecessary burdens on power plant operators and regulatory staff. To achieve the potential benefits of risk-based configuration control, the risk models developed for nuclear power plants should be (1) flexible enough to effectively support necessary risk calculations, and (2) transparent enough to encourage their use by all parties. To address these needs, SCIENTECH, Inc., has developed the PC-based REVEAL W (formerly known as SMART). This graphic-oriented and user-friendly application software allows the user to develop transparent complex logic models based on the concept of the master plant logic diagram. The logic model is success-oriented and compact. The analytical capability built into REVEAL W is generic, so the software can support different types of risk-based evaluations, such as probabilistic safety assessment, accident sequence precursor analysis, design evaluation and configuration management. In this paper, we focus on the application of REVEAL W to support risk-based configuration control of nuclear power plants. (author)

Effects of a risk-based online mammography intervention on accuracy of perceived risk and mammography intentions.

Science.gov (United States)

Seitz, Holli H; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N

2016-10-01

This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. 2918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (<1.5%; ≥1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) x 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk ≤1.5%. For women with a risk≤1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health-related direct-to-consumer genetic tests: a public health assessment and analysis of practices related to Internet-based tests for risk of thrombosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Goddard, K A B; Robitaille, J; Dowling, N F; Parrado, A R; Fishman, J; Bradley, L A; Moore, C A; Khoury, M J

2009-01-01

Recent years have seen increased concern about direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic testing (i.e., the sale and use of genetic tests without involving a health care provider). Numerous professional organizations have developed policies in this area. However, little systematic evidence exists to inform public policy about these tests. We conducted a systematic search to identify genetic tests that are sold DTC without involving a health care provider. We evaluated the practices of companies offering DTC genetic tests for risk of thrombosis using criteria from multiple sources and a minimal set of key practices. We identified 84 instances of currently available health-related DTC genetic tests sold on 27 Web sites; the most common were for pharmacogenomics (12), risk of thrombosis (10), and nutrigenomics (10). For the DTC genetic tests for risk of thrombosis, we found low adherence to recommendations. Online information was frequently incomplete and had low agreement with professional recommendations. Our findings document the rapid growth in the availability of health-related DTC genetic tests and highlight the need to improve the delivery of DTC genetic tests. A major implication of this study is the need for the scientific and medical community to develop consistent recommendations to increase their impact. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Model based climate information on drought risk in Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Calmanti, S.; Syroka, J.; Jones, C.; Carfagna, F.; Dell'Aquila, A.; Hoefsloot, P.; Kaffaf, S.; Nikulin, G.

2012-04-01

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has embarked upon the endeavor of creating a sustainable Africa-wide natural disaster risk management system. A fundamental building block of this initiative is the setup of a drought impact modeling platform called Africa Risk-View that aims to quantify and monitor weather-related food security risk in Africa. The modeling approach is based the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), as the fundamental indicator of the performances of agriculture and uses historical records of food assistance operation to project future potential needs for livelihood protection. By using climate change scenarios as an input to Africa Risk-View it is possible, in principles, to evaluate the future impact of climate variability on critical issues such as food security and the overall performance of the envisaged risk management system. A necessary preliminary step to this challenging task is the exploration of the sources of uncertainties affecting the assessment based on modeled climate change scenarios. For this purpose, a limited set of climate models have been selected in order verify the relevance of using climate model output data with Africa Risk-View and to explore a minimal range of possible sources of uncertainty. This first evaluation exercise started before the setup of the CORDEX framework and has relied on model output available at the time. In particular only one regional downscaling was available for the entire African continent from the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis shows that current coarse resolution global climate models can not directly feed into the Africa RiskView risk-analysis tool. However, regional downscaling may help correcting the inherent biases observed in the datasets. Further analysis is performed by using the first data available under the CORDEX framework. In particular, we consider a set of simulation driven with boundary conditions from the reanalysis ERA-Interim to evaluate the skill drought

Some statistical considerations related to the estimation of cancer risk following exposure to ionizing radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Land, C.E.; Pierce, D.A.

1983-01-01

Statistical theory and methodology provide the logical structure for scientific inference about the cancer risk associated with exposure to ionizing radiation. Although much is known about radiation carcinogenesis, the risk associated with low-level exposures is difficult to assess because it is too small to measure directly. Estimation must therefore depend upon mathematical models which relate observed risks at high exposure levels to risks at lower exposure levels. Extrapolated risk estimates obtained using such models are heavily dependent upon assumptions about the shape of the dose-response relationship, the temporal distribution of risk following exposure, and variation of risk according to variables such as age at exposure, sex, and underlying population cancer rates. Expanded statistical models, which make explicit certain assumed relationships between different data sets, can be used to strengthen inferences by incorporating relevant information from diverse sources. They also allow the uncertainties inherent in information from related data sets to be expressed in estimates which partially depend upon that information. To the extent that informed opinion is based upon a valid assessment of scientific data, the larger context of decision theory, which includes statistical theory, provides a logical framework for the incorporation into public policy decisions of the informational content of expert opinion

Risk considerations related to lung modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masse, R.; Cross, F.T.

1989-01-01

Improved lung models provide a more accurate assessment of dose from inhalation exposures and, therefore, more accurate dose-response relationships for risk evaluation and exposure limitation. Epidemiological data for externally irradiated persons indicate that the numbers of excess respiratory tract carcinomas differ in the upper airways, bronchi, and distal lung. Neither their histogenesis and anatomical location nor their progenitor cells are known with sufficient accuracy for accurate assessment of the microdosimetry. The nuclei of sensitive cells generally can be assumed to be distributed at random in the epithelium, beneath the mucus and tips of the beating cilia and cells. In stratified epithelia, basal cells may be considered the only cells at risk. Upper-airway tumors have been observed in both therapeutically irradiated patients and in Hiroshima-Nagasaki survivors. The current International Commission on Radiological Protection Lung-Model Task Group proposes that the upper airways and lung have a similar relative risk coefficient for cancer induction. The partition of the risk weighting factor, therefore, will be proportional to the spontaneous death rate from tumors, and 80% of the weighting factor for the respiratory tract should be attributed to the lung. For Weibel lung-model branching generations 0 to 16 and 17 to 23, the Task Group proposes an 80/20 partition of the risk, i.e., 64% and 16%, respectively, of the total risk. Regarding risk in animals, recent data in rats indicate a significantly lower effectiveness for lung-cancer induction at low doses from insoluble long-lived alpha-emitters than from Rn daughters. These findings are due, in part, to the fact that different regions of the lung are irradiated. Tumors in the lymph nodes are rare in people and animals exposed to radiation.44 references

The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 1: Physical-environmental assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Ronco, P.; Gallina, V.; Torresan, S.; Zabeo, A.; Semenzin, E.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

2014-07-01

In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazard has increased and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing as a consequence of many factors, both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (increase elements potentially at risk in floodplains area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural, and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the strong effect of climate change is projected to radically modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events both at local, regional and global scale. Within this context, it becomes urgent and dramatically relevant the need of promoting and developing effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow to assess and (possibly) to reduce the flood risks that threats different relevant receptors. Several methodologies to assess the risk posed by water-related natural hazards have been proposed so far, but very few of them can be adopted to implement the last European Flood Directive (FD). The present study is intended to introduce and present a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology to evaluate the benefits of risk prevention in terms of reduced environmental risks due to floods. The methodology, developed within the recently phased out FP7-KULTURisk Project (Knowledge-based approach to develop a cULTUre of Risk prevention - KR) is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale). The FD compliant

Stackelberg game of buyback policy in supply chain with a risk-averse retailer and a risk-averse supplier based on CVaR.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanju Zhou

Full Text Available This paper considers a decentralized supply chain in which a single supplier sells a perishable product to a single retailer facing uncertain demand. We assume that the supplier and the retailer are both risk averse and utilize Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR, a risk measure method which is popularized in financial risk management, to estimate their risk attitude. We establish a buyback policy model based on Stackelberg game theory under considering supply chain members' risk preference and get the expressions of the supplier's optimal repurchase price and the retailer's optimal order quantity which are compared with those under risk neutral case. Finally, a numerical example is applied to simulate that model and prove related conclusions.

Stackelberg game of buyback policy in supply chain with a risk-averse retailer and a risk-averse supplier based on CVaR.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yanju; Chen, Qian; Chen, Xiaohong; Wang, Zongrun

2014-01-01

This paper considers a decentralized supply chain in which a single supplier sells a perishable product to a single retailer facing uncertain demand. We assume that the supplier and the retailer are both risk averse and utilize Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a risk measure method which is popularized in financial risk management, to estimate their risk attitude. We establish a buyback policy model based on Stackelberg game theory under considering supply chain members' risk preference and get the expressions of the supplier's optimal repurchase price and the retailer's optimal order quantity which are compared with those under risk neutral case. Finally, a numerical example is applied to simulate that model and prove related conclusions.

Beyond the contract: managing risk in supply chain relations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dekker, H.C.; Sakaguchi, J.; Kawai, T.

2013-01-01

As a consequence of the development of intensified relations with suppliers, for many firms the supply chain has become a significant source of risk exposure. In this paper we examine firms' use of control practices to manage risks associated with intensified collaboration with supply chain

Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

1996-01-01

The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

2016-01-01

The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk. The... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE...

A risk-based sensor placement methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Ronald W.; Kulesz, James J.

2008-01-01

A risk-based sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors to protect population against the exposure to, and effects of, known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Risk is calculated as a quantitative value representing population at risk from exposure at standard exposure levels. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as the frequency of wind speed and direction pairs. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate risk values. Sensor locations are determined via an iterative dynamic programming algorithm whereby threats detected by sensors placed in prior iterations are removed from consideration in subsequent iterations. In addition to the risk-based placement algorithm, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor. This is the fraction of the total risk accounted for by placement of the sensor. Thus, the criteria for halting the iterative process can be the number of sensors available, a threshold marginal utility value, and/or a minimum cumulative utility achieved with all sensors

Cognitive patterns in relation to biomarkers of cerebrovascular disease and vascular risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Miralbell, Júlia; López-Cancio, Elena; López-Oloriz, Jorge; Arenillas, Juan Francisco; Barrios, Maite; Soriano-Raya, Juan José; Galán, Amparo; Cáceres, Cynthia; Alzamora, Maite; Pera, Guillem; Toran, Pere; Dávalos, Antoni; Mataró, Maria

2013-01-01

Risk factors for vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) are the same as traditional risk factors for cerebrovascular disease (CVD). Early identification of subjects at higher risk of VCI is important for the development of effective preventive strategies. In addition to traditional vascular risk factors (VRF), circulating biomarkers have emerged as potential tools for early diagnoses, as they could provide in vivo measures of the underlying pathophysiology. While VRF have been consistently linked to a VCI profile (i.e., deficits in executive functions and processing speed), the cognitive correlates of CVD biomarkers remain unclear. In this population-based study, the aim was to study and compare cognitive patterns in relation to VRF and circulating biomarkers of CVD. The Barcelona-AsIA Neuropsychology Study included 747 subjects older than 50, without a prior history of stroke or coronary disease and with a moderate to high vascular risk (mean age, 66 years; 34.1% women). Three cognitive domains were derived from factoral analysis: visuospatial skills/speed, verbal memory and verbal fluency. Multiple linear regression was used to assess relationships between cognitive performance (multiple domains) and a panel of circulating biomarkers, including indicators of inflammation, C-reactive protein (CRP) and resistin, endothelial dysfunction, asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA), thrombosis, plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1), as well as traditional VRF, metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance (homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance index). Analyses were adjusted for age, gender, years of education and depressive symptoms. Traditional VRF were related to lower performance in verbal fluency, insulin resistance accounted for lower performance in visuospatial skills/speed and the metabolic syndrome predicted lower performance in both cognitive domains. From the biomarkers of CVD, CRP was negatively related to verbal fluency performance and increasing ADMA

Effectiveness of reducing the risk of eating-related problems using the German school-based intervention program, "Torera", for preadolescent boys and girls.

Science.gov (United States)

Berger, U; Schaefer, J-M; Wick, K; Brix, C; Bormann, B; Sowa, M; Schwartze, D; Strauss, B

2014-08-01

Representative surveys indicate that eating disorders are an increasing problem, especially among (pre)adolescents. We assessed the effects of a German school-based primary prevention program ("Torera") for seventh graders. Torera especially relates to pathological eating behavior in the realm of bulimia nervosa or binge eating disorder. The program is built upon two previously evaluated modules for sixth graders with a gender-specific adaption. The coeducational intervention involves nine manual-guided lessons touching a wide range of eating-related problems. Twenty-two Thuringian secondary schools (n = 256 boys and 277 girls, aged 11-13 years at baseline) participated in a trial with 2 control groups (untreated and pretreated) with pre-post assessment. Primary outcomes were conspicuous eating behavior and body self-esteem, measured by standardized questionnaires (SCOFF, EAT-26D, and FBeK). Girls and students at risk showed significant improvement with small (d = 0.35) to medium (d = 0.66) effect sizes on eating behavior, significantly mediated by body self-esteem. Boys only improved with respect to eating attitudes, revealing a small effect size (d = 0.35). With relatively low implementation costs (about 2.50 per student), Torera provides an efficient model for reducing risky eating behavior and strengthening body self-esteem without negative side effects. To improve the effectiveness of the intervention, further research efforts focusing on at-risk groups (secondary prevention) and structural actions for prevention (e.g., offering healthy school catering) are needed.

Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

1989-01-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

Relative invasion risk for plankton across marine and freshwater systems: examining efficacy of proposed international ballast water discharge standards.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oscar Casas-Monroy

Full Text Available Understanding the implications of different management strategies is necessary to identify best conservation trajectories for ecosystems exposed to anthropogenic stressors. For example, science-based risk assessments at large scales are needed to understand efficacy of different vector management approaches aimed at preventing biological invasions associated with commercial shipping. We conducted a landscape-scale analysis to examine the relative invasion risk of ballast water discharges among different shipping pathways (e.g., Transoceanic, Coastal or Domestic, ecosystems (e.g., freshwater, brackish and marine, and timescales (annual and per discharge event under current and future management regimes. The arrival and survival potential of nonindigenous species (NIS was estimated based on directional shipping networks and their associated propagule pressure, environmental similarity between donor-recipient ecosystems (based on salinity and temperature, and effects of current and future management strategies (i.e., ballast water exchange and treatment to meet proposed international biological discharge standards. Our findings show that current requirements for ballast water exchange effectively reduce invasion risk to freshwater ecosystems but are less protective of marine ecosystems because of greater environmental mismatch between source (oceanic and recipient (freshwater ecoregions. Future requirements for ballast water treatment are expected to reduce risk of zooplankton NIS introductions across ecosystem types but are expected to be less effective in reducing risk of phytoplankton NIS. This large-scale risk assessment across heterogeneous ecosystems represents a major step towards understanding the likelihood of invasion in relation to shipping networks, the relative efficacy of different invasion management regimes and seizing opportunities to reduce the ecological and economic implications of biological invasions.

High-risk populations identified in Childhood Cancer Survivor Study investigations: implications for risk-based surveillance.

Science.gov (United States)

Hudson, Melissa M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Bowers, Daniel C; Sklar, Charles A; Green, Daniel M; Donaldson, Sarah S; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Neglia, Joseph P; Meadows, Anna T; Robison, Leslie L

2009-05-10

Childhood cancer survivors often experience complications related to cancer and its treatment that may adversely affect quality of life and increase the risk of premature death. The purpose of this manuscript is to review how data derived from Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) investigations have facilitated identification of childhood cancer survivor populations at high risk for specific organ toxicity and secondary carcinogenesis and how this has informed clinical screening practices. Articles previously published that used the resource of the CCSS to identify risk factors for specific organ toxicity and subsequent cancers were reviewed and results summarized. CCSS investigations have characterized specific groups to be at highest risk of morbidity related to endocrine and reproductive dysfunction, pulmonary toxicity, cerebrovascular injury, neurologic and neurosensory sequelae, and subsequent neoplasms. Factors influencing risk for specific outcomes related to the individual survivor (eg, sex, race/ethnicity, age at diagnosis, attained age), sociodemographic status (eg, education, household income, health insurance) and cancer history (eg, diagnosis, treatment, time from diagnosis) have been consistently identified. These CCSS investigations that clarify risk for treatment complications related to specific treatment modalities, cumulative dose exposures, and sociodemographic factors identify profiles of survivors at high risk for cancer-related morbidity who deserve heightened surveillance to optimize outcomes after treatment for childhood cancer.

Risk factors for falls and fall-related injuries in adults 85 years of age and older.

Science.gov (United States)

Grundstrom, Anna C; Guse, Clare E; Layde, Peter M

2012-01-01

Falls are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in older adults. No previous studies on risk factors for falls have focused on adults 85 years and older, the most rapidly growing segment of adults. We examined demographic, health, and behavioral risk factors for falls and fall-related injuries in adults 65 years and older, with a particular focus on adults 85 years and older. We analyzed self-reported information from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) for 2008. Data was available for 120,923 people aged 65 or older and 12,684 people aged 85 or older. Of those aged 85 or older, 21.3% reported at least one fall in the past 3 months and 7.2% reported at least one fall related injury requiring medical care or limiting activity for a day or longer. Below average general health, male sex, perceived insufficient sleep, health problems requiring assistive devices, alcohol consumption, increasing body mass index and history of stroke were all independently associated with a greater risk of falls or fall related injuries. The greater risk of falling in those 85 years and older appeared to be due to the deterioration of overall health status with age; among those with excellent overall health status, there was no greater risk of falling in adults 85 years and older compared to those 65-84 years of age. Our results suggest that those with risk factors for falls and fall-related injuries may be appropriate targets for evidence-based fall prevention programs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Relative Risk of Divorce in Parents of Children With Developmental Disabilities: Impacts of Lifelong Parenting.

Science.gov (United States)

Namkung, Eun Ha; Song, Jieun; Greenberg, Jan S; Mailick, Marsha R; Floyd, Frank J

2015-11-01

We prospectively examined the risk of divorce in 190 parents of children with developmental disabilities compared to 7,251 parents of children without disabilities based on a random sample drawn from the community and followed longitudinally for over 50 years. A significant interaction between the parental group status and number of children was found: In the comparison group, having a larger number of children was related to an increased risk of divorce, whereas the number of children did not increase divorce risk among parents of children with developmental disabilities.

The Relative Risk of Divorce in Parents of Children with Developmental Disabilities: Impacts of Lifelong Parenting

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Jieun; Greenberg, Jan S.; Mailick, Marsha R.; Floyd, Frank J.

2015-01-01

We examined prospectively the risk of divorce in 190 parents of children with developmental disabilities compared to 7,251 parents of children without disabilities based on a random sample drawn from the community and followed longitudinally for over 50 years. A significant interaction between the parental group status and number of children was found: In the comparison group, having a larger number of children was related to an increased risk of divorce, whereas the number of children did not increase divorce risk among parents of children with developmental disabilities. PMID:26505872

HIV-related sexual risk behavior among African American adolescent girls.

Science.gov (United States)

Danielson, Carla Kmett; Walsh, Kate; McCauley, Jenna; Ruggiero, Kenneth J; Brown, Jennifer L; Sales, Jessica M; Rose, Eve; Wingood, Gina M; Diclemente, Ralph J

2014-05-01

Latent class analysis (LCA) is a useful statistical tool that can be used to enhance understanding of how various patterns of combined sexual behavior risk factors may confer differential levels of HIV infection risk and to identify subtypes among African American adolescent girls. Data for this analysis is derived from baseline assessments completed prior to randomization in an HIV prevention trial. Participants were African American girls (n=701) aged 14-20 years presenting to sexual health clinics. Girls completed an audio computer-assisted self-interview, which assessed a range of variables regarding sexual history and current and past sexual behavior. Two latent classes were identified with the probability statistics for the two groups in this model being 0.89 and 0.88, respectively. In the final multivariate model, class 1 (the "higher risk" group; n=331) was distinguished by a higher likelihood of >5 lifetime sexual partners, having sex while high on alcohol/drugs, less frequent condom use, and history of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), when compared with class 2 (the "lower risk" group; n=370). The derived model correctly classified 85.3% of participants into the two groups and accounted for 71% of the variance in the latent HIV-related sexual behavior risk variable. The higher risk class also had worse scores on all hypothesized correlates (e.g., self-esteem, history of sexual assault or physical abuse) relative to the lower risk class. Sexual health clinics represent a unique point of access for HIV-related sexual risk behavior intervention delivery by capitalizing on contact with adolescent girls when they present for services. Four empirically supported risk factors differentiated higher versus lower HIV risk. Replication of these findings is warranted and may offer an empirical basis for parsimonious screening recommendations for girls presenting for sexual healthcare services.

Heterogenous Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution and Relative Risk Aversion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khorunzhina, Natalia; Gayle, Wayne-Roy

This paper investigates the existence and degree of variation across house holds and over time in the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) and the coefficient of relative risk aversion (RRA) that is generated by habit forming preferences. To do so, we develop a new nonlinear GMM estimator...... in food consumption. Using these estimates, we develop bounds for the expectation of the implied heterogenous intertemporal elasticity of substitution and relative risk aversion that account for measurement errors and compute asymptotically valid confidence intervals on these bounds. We find...

Modifying EPA radiation risk models based on BEIR VII

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pawel, D.; Puskin, J.

2007-01-01

This paper summarizes a 'draft White Paper' that provides details on proposed changes in EPA's methodology for estimating radiogenic cancer risks. Many of the changes are based on the contents of a recent National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report (BEIR VII), that addresses cancer and genetic risks from low doses of low-LET radiation. The draft White Paper was prepared for a meeting with the EPA's Science Advisory Board's Radiation Advisory Committee (RAC) in September for seeking advice on the application of BEIR VII and on issues relating to these modifications and expansions. After receiving the Advisory review, we plan to implement the changes by publishing the new methodology in an EPA report, which we expect to submit to the RAC for final review. The revised methodology could then be applied to update the cancer risk coefficients for over 800 radionuclides that are published in EPA's Federal Guidance Report 13. (author)

The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

Science.gov (United States)

Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

2013-01-01

AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

What are the main risk factors for running-related injuries?

Science.gov (United States)

Saragiotto, Bruno Tirotti; Yamato, Tiê Parma; Hespanhol Junior, Luiz Carlos; Rainbow, Michael J; Davis, Irene S; Lopes, Alexandre Dias

2014-08-01

Despite several studies that have been conducted on running injuries, the risk factors for running-related injuries are still not clear in the literature. The aim of this study was to systematically review prospective cohort studies that investigated the risk factors for running injuries in general. We conducted electronic searches without restriction of language on EMBASE (1980 to Dec 2012), PUBMED (1946 to Dec 2012), CINAHL (1988 to Dec 2012) SPORTDiscus (1977 to Dec 2012), Latin American and Caribbean Centre on Health Sciences Information (1985 to Dec 2012) and Scientific Electronic Library Online (1998 to Dec 2012) databases, using subject headings, synonyms, relevant terms and variant spellings for each database. Only prospective cohort studies investigating the risk factors for running-related musculoskeletal injuries were included in this review. Two independent reviewers screened each article and, if they did not reach a consensus, a third reviewer decided whether or not the article should be included. Year of publication, type of runners, sample size, definition of running-related musculoskeletal injury, baseline characteristics, reported risk factors and the statistical measurement of risk or protection association were extracted from the articles. A scale adapted by the authors evaluated the risk of bias of the articles. A total of 11 articles were considered eligible in this systematic review. A total of 4,671 pooled participants were analysed and 60 different predictive factors were investigated. The main risk factor reported was previous injury (last 12 months), reported in 5 of the 8 studies that investigated previous injuries as a risk factor. Only one article met the criteria for random selection of the sample and only six articles included a follow-up of 6 months or more. There was no association between gender and running injuries in most of the studies. It is possible that eligible articles for this review were published in journals that were

RISK MANAGEMENT AUTOMATION OF SOFTWARE PROJECTS BASED ОN FUZZY INFERENCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. M. Zubkova

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Application suitability for one of the intelligent methods for risk management of software projects has been shown based on the review of existing algorithms for fuzzy inference in the field of applied problems. Information sources in the management of software projects are analyzed; major and minor risks are highlighted. The most critical parameters have been singled out giving the possibility to estimate the occurrence of an adverse situations (project duration, the frequency of customer’s requirements changing, work deadlines, experience of developers’ participation in such projects and others.. The method of qualitative fuzzy description based on fuzzy logic has been developed for analysis of these parameters. Evaluation of possible situations and knowledge base formation rely on a survey of experts. The main limitations of existing automated systems have been identified in relation to their applicability to risk management in the software design. Theoretical research set the stage for software system that makes it possible to automate the risk management process for software projects. The developed software system automates the process of fuzzy inference in the following stages: rule base formation of the fuzzy inference systems, fuzzification of input variables, aggregation of sub-conditions, activation and accumulation of conclusions for fuzzy production rules, variables defuzzification. The result of risk management automation process in the software design is their quantitative and qualitative assessment and expert advice for their minimization. Practical significance of the work lies in the fact that implementation of the developed automated system gives the possibility for performance improvement of software projects.

Risk of Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Relation to Temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Mathes, Robert; Ito, Kazuhiko; Matte, Thomas

2013-01-01

Objective To examine the effects of temperature on cardiovascular-related (CVD) morbidity and mortality among New York City (NYC) residents. Introduction Extreme temperatures are consistently shown to have an effect on CVD-related mortality [1, 2]. A large multi-city study of mortality demonstrated a cold-day and hot-day weather effect on CVD-related deaths, with the larger impact occurring on the coldest days [3]. In contrast, the association between weather and CVD-related morbidity is less clear [4, 5]. The purpose of this study is to characterize the effect of temperature on CVD-related emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and mortality on a large, heterogeneous population. Additionally, we conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the impact of air pollutants, specifically fine particulates (PM2.5) and ozone (O3), along with temperature, on CVD outcomes. Methods We analyzed daily weather conditions, ED visits classified as CVD-related based on chief complaint text, hospitalizations, and natural cause deaths that occurred in NYC between 2002 and 2006. ED visits were obtained from data reported daily to the city health department for syndromic surveillance. Inpatient admissions were obtained from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System, a data reporting system developed by New York State. Mortality data were obtained from the NYC Office of Vital Statistics. Data for PM2.5 and O3 were obtained from all available air quality monitors within the five boroughs of NYC. To estimate risk of CVD morbidity and mortality, we used generalized linear models using a Poisson distribution to calculate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A non-linear distributed lag was used to model mean temperature in order to allow for its effect on the same day and on subsequent days. Models were fit separately for cold season (October through March) and warm season (April through September) given season may modify the effect on CVD

The derivation and application of a risk related value for saving a statistical life

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jackson, D.; Stone, D.; Butler, G.G.; Mcglynn, G.

2004-01-01

A risk related value of spend for saving a statistical life (VSSSL) is proposed for cost-benefit studies across the power generation sector, and the nuclear industry in particular. An upper bound on VSSSL is set based on the UK government standard of around pound 1 M or, in particular circumstances, pound 2 M and the observation that excessive spend (probably of the order of more than pound 5 M per statistical life) will actually cost lives. Above a risk of 10 -3 a -1 it is assumed that VSSSL approaches maximum sustainable value around pound 2 M, whereas below a risk of 10 -9 a -1 the value of further risk reduction approaches zero. At risks around 10 -6 a -1 it is proposed that an appropriate VSSL lies in the range pound 0.25 M to pound 1 M. With respect to radiological protection, it is suggested that where collective doses are dominated by average individual doses no more than a few μSv, the detriment arising from a man-Sv can be valued at about pound 15 k to pound 60 k. It is further suggested that for individual dose contributions below 0.01 μSv (representing a risk equivalent to less than 10 -9 ) a low residual VSSSL should be applied in cost-benefit analyses based on collective dose exposures. (author)

Risk-based performance indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azarm, M.A.; Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.

1987-01-01

The purpose of risk-based indicators is to monitor plant safety. Safety is measured by monitoring the potential for core melt (core-melt frequency) and the public risk. Targets for these measures can be set consistent with NRC safety goals. In this process, the performance of safety systems, support systems, major components, and initiating events can be monitored using measures such as unavailability, failure or occurrence frequency. The changes in performance measures and their trends are determined from the time behavior of monitored measures by differentiation between stochastical and actual variations. Therefore, degradation, as well as improvement in the plant safety performance, can be determined. The development of risk-based performance indicators will also provide the means to trace a change in the safety measures to specific problem areas which are amenable to root cause analysis and inspection audits. In addition, systematic methods will be developed to identify specific improvement policies using the plant information system for the identified problem areas. The final product of the performance indicator project will be a methodology, and an integrated and validated set of software packages which, if properly interfaced with the logic model software of a plant, can monitor the plant performance as plant information is provided as input

Quantity of documentation of maltreatment risk factors in injury-related paediatric hospitalisations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

McKenzie Kirsten

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background While child maltreatment is recognised as a global problem, solid epidemiological data on the prevalence of child maltreatment and risk factors associated with child maltreatment is lacking in Australia and internationally. There have been recent calls for action to improve the evidence-base capturing and describing child abuse, particularly those data captured within the health sector. This paper describes the quantity of documentation of maltreatment risk factors in injury-related paediatric hospitalisations in Queensland, Australia. Methods This study involved a retrospective medical record review, text extraction and coding methodology to assess the quantity of documentation of risk factors and the subsequent utility of data in hospital records for describing child maltreatment and data linkage to Child Protection Service (CPS. Results There were 433 children in the maltreatment group and 462 in the unintentional injury group for whom medical records could be reviewed. Almost 93% of the maltreatment code sample, but only 11% of the unintentional injury sample had documentation identified indicating the presence of any of 20 risk factors. In the maltreatment group the most commonly documented risk factor was history of abuse (41%. In those with an unintentional injury, the most commonly documented risk factor was alcohol abuse of the child or family (3%. More than 93% of the maltreatment sample also linked to a child protection record. Of concern are the 16% of those children who linked to child protection who did not have documented risk factors in the medical record. Conclusion Given the importance of the medical record as a source of information about children presenting to hospital for treatment and as a potential source of evidence for legal action the lack of documentation is of concern. The details surrounding the injury admission and consideration of any maltreatment related risk factors, both identifying their

Risk-based prioritization and its application to inspection of valves in the water sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marlow, David R.; Beale, David J.; Mashford, John S.

2012-01-01

Isolation valves facilitate the effective operation and maintenance of water supply networks, but their sheer number presents a significant asset management challenge. If left unmanaged, valve reliability issues can become widespread. Inspections provide a means of increasing reliability, but a survey of industry practices indicated that some utilities did not have such a program in place. To improve asset management and reduce business risk exposure, such utilities need an effective means of commencing inspection programs. From a theoretical perspective, risk concepts provide a means of optimizing maintenance effort. However, in the face of poor data on reliability or condition, pragmatic approaches to risk-based prioritization are needed. One such approach, risk indexing, is considered in this paper. Background on the research is presented, including the application of risk-based inspection concepts within the water sector. The development of a risk indexing scheme is then investigated, drawing on two industry workshops in which the analytical hierarchy process was used to set relative weights. It is concluded that risk indexing provides the basis for a rational prioritization process in the absence of data on valve reliability or condition. - Highlights: ► Importance of valve inspections to water network reliability. ► Theoretical perspective of risk concepts that provide a means of optimizing inspection programs. ► Pragmatic approaches to prioritization in light of poor valve data. ► Development and assessment of a risk index scheme. ► Use of the analytical hierarchy process to set relative weights of risk factors.

Risk based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat in the European Union

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nauta, Maarten; Sanaa, Moez; Havelaar, Arie H.

2012-01-01

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) allows evaluating the public health impact of food safety targets to support the control of foodborne pathogens. We estimate the risk reduction of setting microbiological criteria (MCs) for Campylobacter on broiler meat in 25 European countries......, applying quantitative data from the 2008 EU baseline survey. We demonstrate that risk based MCs can be derived without explicit consideration of Food Safety Objectives or Performance Objectives. Published QMRA models for the consumer phase and dose response provide a relation between Campylobacter...

Sensation Seeking and Risk-Taking Propensity as Mediators in the Relationship between Childhood Abuse and HIV-Related Risk Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Bornovalova, Marina A.; Gwadz, Marya A.; Kahler, Christopher; Aklin, W. M.; Lejuez, C. W.

2008-01-01

Objectives: Although a wealth of literature suggests that childhood physical, emotional, and sexual abuse are related to later-life HIV-related risk behaviors, few studies have explored disinhibition (e.g., impulsivity, risk-taking propensity, and sensation-seeking) as a risk factor in this relationship. Method: This cross-sectional study examined…

Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

2009-03-01

This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

Strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

1991-01-01

A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability or statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, so that the risk from components being unavailable is minimized, becomes difficult because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. In this paper, we discuss the strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control in nuclear power plants. In developing these strategies and criteria, the primary objective is to obtain more direct risk control but the added benefit is the effective use of plant resources. Implementation of such approaches can result in replacement/modification of parts of Technical Specifications. Specifically, the risk impact or safety impact of a configuration depends upon four factors: (1) The configuration components which are simultaneously down (i.e., inoperable); (2) the backup components which are known to be up (i.e., operable); (3) the duration of time the configuration exists (the outage time); and (4) the frequency at which the configuration occurs. Risk-based configuration control involves managing these factors using risk analyses and risk insights. In this paper, we discuss each of the factors and illustrate how they can be controlled. The information and the tools needed in implementing configuration control are also discussed. The risk-based calculation requirements in achieving the control are also delineated. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

Geographic approaches to quantifying the risk environment: a focus on syringe exchange program site access and drug-related law enforcement activities

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Hannah LF; Bossak, Brian; Tempalski, Barbara; Des Jarlais, Don C.; Friedman, Samuel R.

2009-01-01

The concept of the “risk environment” – defined as the “space … [where] factors exogenous to the individual interact to increase the chances of HIV transmission” – draws together the disciplines of public health and geography. Researchers have increasingly turned to geographic methods to quantify dimensions of the risk environment that are both structural and spatial (e.g., local poverty rates). The scientific power of the intersection between public health and geography, however, has yet to be fully mined. In particular, research on the risk environment has rarely applied geographic methods to create neighbourhood-based measures of syringe exchange programs (SEPs) or of drug-related law enforcement activities, despite the fact that these interventions are widely conceptualized as structural and spatial in nature and are two of the most well-established dimensions of the risk environment. To strengthen research on the risk environment, this paper presents a way of using geographic methods to create neighbourhood-based measures of (1) access to SEP sites and (2) exposure to drug-related arrests, and then applies these methods to one setting (New York City). NYC-based results identified substantial cross-neighbourhood variation in SEP site access and in exposure to drug-related arrest rates (even within the subset of neighbourhoods nominally experiencing the same drug-related police strategy). These geographic measures – grounded as they are in conceptualizations of SEPs and drug-related law enforcement strategies – can help develop new arenas of inquiry regarding the impact of these two dimensions of the risk environment on injectors’ health, including exploring whether and how neighbourhood-level access to SEP sites and exposure to drug-related arrests shape a range of outcomes among local injectors. PMID:18963907

Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

Science.gov (United States)

Bergion, Viktor; Lindhe, Andreas; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Rosén, Lars

2018-04-01

Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10 -4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50 th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local

Risk-based decision making and risk management of European Union regional programs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michalopoulos Evangelos

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a generalized method for management decision making incorporating risk assessment techniques. The risk based decision making methodology is applied to European Union expenditure programs used to implement its regional policy, such as the community support framework, community initiatives, special initiatives and other European policies. An example is presented for the development of an audit (inspection program in the region of West Macedonia, Greece, during the implementation of the 3rd Community Structural Support Framework Operational Program. The generic nature of the method permits its use in the management of similar European regional programs in Greece and other European countries. It is also applicable to many other industries interested in applying risk-based management decisions to physical or process based systems. .

[Interpersonal relations as a source of risk of mobbing in the local police].

Science.gov (United States)

Segurado Torres, Almudena; Agulló Tomás, Esteban; Rodríguez Suárez, Julio; Agulló Tomás, Ma Silveria; Boada i Grau, Joan; Medina Centeno, Raúl

2008-11-01

Social relations in the workplace are one of the main sources of risk for the onset of mobbing. In this work, we analyzed, through the perceived social climate, the influence of interpersonal relations on the characterization of the processes of mobbing, in a sample of local police (N = 235). In particular, the policemen and women's opinions of the quality of the personal relations among the group members and the treatment they receive from the command posts were assessed. The results of the study show that the development of guidelines of social interaction based on discrimination and abuse of authority are predicting variables of mobbing in this group.

Familial Risks of Tourette Syndrome and Chronic Tic Disorders. A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Mataix-Cols, David; Isomura, Kayoko; Pérez-Vigil, Ana; Chang, Zheng; Rück, Christian; Larsson, K Johan; Leckman, James F; Serlachius, Eva; Larsson, Henrik; Lichtenstein, Paul

2015-08-01

Tic disorders, including Tourette syndrome (TS) and chronic tic disorders (CTDs), are assumed to be strongly familial and heritable. Although gene-searching efforts are well under way, precise estimates of familial risk and heritability are lacking. Previous controlled family studies were small and typically conducted within specialist clinics, resulting in potential ascertainment biases. They were also underpowered to disentangle genetic from environmental factors that contribute to the observed familiality. Twin studies have been either very small or based on parent-reported tics in population-based (nonclinical) twin samples. To provide unbiased estimates of familial risk and heritability of tic disorders at the population level. In this population cohort, multigenerational family study, we used a validated algorithm to identify 4826 individuals diagnosed as having TS or CTDs (76.2% male) in the Swedish National Patient Register from January 1, 1969, through December 31, 2009. We studied risks for TS or CTDs in all biological relatives of probands compared with relatives of unaffected individuals (matched on a 1:10 ratio) from the general population. Structural equation modeling was used to estimate the heritability of tic disorders. The risk for tic disorders among relatives of probands with tic disorders increased proportionally to the degree of genetic relatedness. The risks for first-degree relatives (odds ratio [OR], 18.69; 95% CI, 14.53-24.05) were significantly higher than for second-degree relatives (OR, 4.58; 95% CI, 3.22-6.52) and third-degree relatives (OR, 3.07; 95% CI, 2.08-4.51). First-degree relatives at similar genetic distances (eg, parents, siblings, and offspring) had similar risks for tic disorders despite different degrees of shared environment. The risks for full siblings (50% genetic similarity; OR, 17.68; 95% CI, 12.90-24.23) were significantly higher than those for maternal half siblings (25% genetic similarity; OR, 4.41; 95

Validation of a risk stratification tool for fall-related injury in a state-wide cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

McCoy, Thomas H; Castro, Victor M; Cagan, Andrew; Roberson, Ashlee M; Perlis, Roy H

2017-02-06

A major preventable contributor to healthcare costs among older individuals is fall-related injury. We sought to validate a tool to stratify such risk based on readily available clinical data, including projected medication adverse effects, using state-wide medical claims data. Sociodemographic and clinical features were drawn from health claims paid in the state of Massachusetts for individuals aged 35-65 with a hospital admission for a period spanning January-December 2012. Previously developed logistic regression models of hospital readmission for fall-related injury were refit in a testing set including a randomly selected 70% of individuals, and examined in a training set comprised of the remaining 30%. Medications at admission were summarised based on reported adverse effect frequencies in published medication labelling. The Massachusetts health system. A total of 68 764 hospitalised individuals aged 35-65 years. Hospital readmission for fall-related injury defined by claims code. A total of 2052 individuals (3.0%) were hospitalised for fall-related injury within 90 days of discharge, and 3391 (4.9%) within 180 days. After recalibrating the model in a training data set comprised of 48 136 individuals (70%), model discrimination in the remaining 30% test set yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.74 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.76). AUCs were similar across age decades (0.71 to 0.78) and sex (0.72 male, 0.76 female), and across most common diagnostic categories other than psychiatry. For individuals in the highest risk quartile, 11.4% experienced fall within 180 days versus 1.2% in the lowest risk quartile; 57.6% of falls occurred in the highest risk quartile. This analysis of state-wide claims data demonstrates the feasibility of predicting fall-related injury requiring hospitalisation using readily available sociodemographic and clinical details. This translatable approach to stratification allows for identification of

Pedo-Climatic Risks Over Făllticeni City Related Orchards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jitariu Vasile

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Through this study, “Pedo-climatic risks over Fălticeni city related orchards”, we intend to conduct a study that highlights the way that a number of parameters such as climate and soil, through their evolution, may be considered a risk factor for orchards nearby Fălticeni city.

The ASME research task force on risk-based in-service inspection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balkey, K.R.; Chapman, O.J.V.

1997-01-01

The use of risk-based methods in the development of in-service inspection (ISI) and in-service testing (IST) programs for nuclear power plant and other industrial applications has been studied for the last several years through the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Centre for Research and Technology Development (ASME 1991, 1992, 1994, 1996). The results of this work are being used as a foundation to develop specific requirements for implementation of risk-based technology in ASME Codes and Standards, regulatory requirements and industry programs both in the U.S. and other countries. This paper provides a brief overview of the ASME Research Methodology and how it has been adapted for application to the inspection of piping within the USA. It also relates how the reliability of nondestructive examination (NDE) methods for pressure boundary components can impact the risk and discusses the relationship between this and NDE qualification/demonstration now being implemented in Europe and the USA. (orig.)

A risk-based method for planning of bus–subway corridor evacuation under hybrid uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lv, Y.; Yan, X.D.; Sun, W.; Gao, Z.Y.

2015-01-01

Emergencies involved in a bus–subway corridor system are associated with many processes and factors with social and economic implications. These processes and factors and their interactions are related to a variety of uncertainties. In this study, an interval chance-constrained integer programming (EICI) method is developed in response to such challenges for bus–subway corridor based evacuation planning. The method couples a chance-constrained programming with an interval integer programming model framework. It can thus deal with interval uncertainties that cannot be quantified with specified probability distribution functions. Meanwhile, it can also reflect stochastic features of traffic flow capacity, and thereby help examine the related violation risk of constraint. The EICI method is applied to a subway incident based evacuation case study. It is solved through an interactive algorithm that does not lead to more complicated intermediate submodels and has a relatively low computational requirement. A number of decision alternatives could be directly generated based on results from the EICI method. It is indicated that the solutions cannot only help decision makers identify desired population evacuation and vehicle dispatch schemes under hybrid uncertainties, but also provide bases for in-depth analyses of tradeoffs among evacuation plans, total evacuation time, and constraint-violation risks. - Highlights: • An inexact model is developed for the bus–subway corridor evacuation management. • It tackles stochastic and interval uncertainties in an integer programming problem. • It can examine violation risk of the roadway flow capacity related constraint. • It will help identify evacuation schemes under hybrid uncertainties

The influence of nuclear risk sense to atomic industry's public relation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biryukova, P.; Kazakevich, Yu.

2001-01-01

The goal of this report is estimation of the influence of sensing of nuclear risk to atomic industry's public relation. In this report the reasons of the negative relation to nuclear energetic owing to inadequate sensing of the risk dealing with this fields have been represented. (authors)

Food for thought - Communicating food-related risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sturloni Giancarlo

2003-03-01

Full Text Available In the last few years, a continuous series of food alerts have caught the attention of the media and the public in Europe. First, eggs and pork contaminated with dioxins; then, “mad cow” disease, while, all along in the background, a battle against genetically modified plants has been in progress. These food alerts have had complex repercussions on the perception of risks associated with food production. Experts have often been divided over these issues, and the uncertainty of scientific data has been indicated on more than one occasion as one of the factors that influence risk perception. However, the most important factor seems to be undoubtedly the way in which the risk has been communicated (or not communicated to the public. Therefore, risk communication analysis offers an excellent opportunity to understand the profound changes that are taking place in relations among the scientific community, mass media and other members of civil society now that they are fully aware that scientific and technological innovation, the real driving force of modern industrial society, is a source of development but also a source of risks which are not always acceptable. Within this different context, a debate open to all interested parties appears to have become a dire necessity for the “risk society”, especially as far as food is concerned because food has extremely important psychological, ethical and cultural values.

RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (extended version)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.

2010-01-01

Today, companies are required to be in control of the security of their IT assets. This is especially challenging in the presence of limited budgets and conflicting requirements. Here, we present Risk-Based Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (RiskREP), a method for managing IT security

Performance evaluation of inpatient service in Beijing: a horizontal comparison with risk adjustment based on Diagnosis Related Groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Jian, Weiyan; Huang, Yinmin; Hu, Mu; Zhang, Xiumei

2009-04-30

The medical performance evaluation, which provides a basis for rational decision-making, is an important part of medical service research. Current progress with health services reform in China is far from satisfactory, without sufficient regulation. To achieve better progress, an effective tool for evaluating medical performance needs to be established. In view of this, this study attempted to develop such a tool appropriate for the Chinese context. Data was collected from the front pages of medical records (FPMR) of all large general public hospitals (21 hospitals) in the third and fourth quarter of 2007. Locally developed Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) were introduced as a tool for risk adjustment and performance evaluation indicators were established: Charge Efficiency Index (CEI), Time Efficiency Index (TEI) and inpatient mortality of low-risk group cases (IMLRG), to reflect respectively work efficiency and medical service quality. Using these indicators, the inpatient services' performance was horizontally compared among hospitals. Case-mix Index (CMI) was used to adjust efficiency indices and then produce adjusted CEI (aCEI) and adjusted TEI (aTEI). Poisson distribution analysis was used to test the statistical significance of the IMLRG differences between different hospitals. Using the aCEI, aTEI and IMLRG scores for the 21 hospitals, Hospital A and C had relatively good overall performance because their medical charges were lower, LOS shorter and IMLRG smaller. The performance of Hospital P and Q was the worst due to their relatively high charge level, long LOS and high IMLRG. Various performance problems also existed in the other hospitals. It is possible to develop an accurate and easy to run performance evaluation system using Case-Mix as the tool for risk adjustment, choosing indicators close to consumers and managers, and utilizing routine report forms as the basic information source. To keep such a system running effectively, it is necessary to

Are all risks equal? Early experiences of poverty-related risk and children's functioning.

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, Amanda L; Raver, C Cybele

2014-06-01

Using cumulative risk and latent class analysis (LCA) models, we examined how exposure to deep poverty (income-to-needs ratio risks (i.e., single-parent household, residential crowding, caregiver depression, and multiple life stressors) in preschool is related to children's future difficulty in school in a longitudinal sample of 602 Head Start-enrolled, low-income families. Results from the LCA revealed 4 risk profiles: low risk, deep poverty and single, single and stressed, and deep poverty and crowded household. Tests of measurement invariance across racial/ethnic groups established that, although patterns of risk are similar across groups (i.e., risks covary in the same way), the prevalence of risk profiles differs. African American families were overrepresented in the "deep poverty and single" profile while Latino and White families were overrepresented in the "deep poverty and crowded" profile. Finally, children's third grade functioning in 3 domains (i.e., academic performance, behavior problems, and self-regulatory skills) was predicted using a cumulative risk index and LCA-identified risk profiles. Both approaches demonstrated that children who experienced higher levels of risk in preschool had worse school performance than children with low levels of risk. However, LCA also revealed that children who experienced "single and stressed" family settings had more behavior problems than low-risk children while children who experienced "deep poverty and crowded" family settings had worse academic performance. The results indicate that all risks are not equal for children's development and highlight the utility of LCA for tailoring intervention efforts to best meet the needs of target populations. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved

Relative risk perception for terrorism: implications for preparedness and risk communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Caponecchia, Carlo

2012-09-01

Terrorism presents a significant risk that is often approached at public policy, infrastructure, or emergency management level. Public perceptions of the likelihood of terrorist events, and how this may relate to individual preparedness, are not always extensively examined. The tendency to think that negative events are less likely to happen to oneself than to the average person is known as optimism bias. Optimism bias is relevant to perceptions of terrorism, because it is thought to be related to a reduction in precaution use. Using an online survey of 164 participants, this study aimed to determine whether Sydney residents thought they had a lower likelihood of experiencing terrorist events than other Australians. Significant optimism bias was observed for witnessing terrorist events, but not for personally experiencing terrorist events. In addition, Sydney residents tended to think that terrorist attacks were more likely to occur in Sydney than another major Australian city in the next five years. At the same time, household and workplace preparedness for terrorism was quite low, as was awareness of emergency strategies in the central business district. Perceptions of high likelihood of terrorism happening in one's own city, yet low preparedness present a challenge for risk communication and emergency management strategies. The diversity of possible terrorist targets, and the simple plans that can moderate the effects of a disaster may need to be emphasized in future anti-terrorism initiatives. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Harnessing the Risk-Related Data Supply Chain: An Information Architecture Approach to Enriching Human System Research and Operations Knowledge

Science.gov (United States)

Buquo, Lynn; Johnson-Throop, Kathy

2010-01-01

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) and Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD), not unlike many NASA organizations today, struggle with the inherent inefficiencies caused by dependencies on heterogeneous data systems and silos of data and information spread across decentralized discipline domains. The capture of operational and research-based data/information (both in-flight and ground-based) in disparate IT systems impedes the extent to which that data/information can be efficiently and securely shared, analyzed, and enriched into knowledge that directly and more rapidly supports HRP's research-focused human system risk mitigation efforts and SLSD s operationally oriented risk management efforts. As a result, an integrated effort is underway to more fully understand and document how specific sets of risk-related data/information are generated and used and in what IT systems that data/information currently resides. By mapping the risk-related data flow from raw data to useable information and knowledge (think of it as the data supply chain), HRP and SLSD are building an information architecture plan to leverage their existing, shared IT infrastructure. In addition, it is important to create a centralized structured tool to represent risks including attributes such as likelihood, consequence, contributing factors, and the evidence supporting the information in all these fields. Representing the risks in this way enables reasoning about the risks, e.g. revisiting a risk assessment when a mitigation strategy is unavailable, updating a risk assessment when new information becomes available, etc. Such a system also provides a concise way to communicate the risks both within the organization as well as with collaborators. Understanding and, hence, harnessing the human system risk-related data supply chain enhances both organizations' abilities to securely collect, integrate, and share data assets that improve human system research and operations.

Global Risks as Factors that Affect the Current system of international Relations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina A. Zaitseva

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The problem of the globalization of risks is examined in this article. Based on the World Economic Forum (WEF report on global risks 2015-2017, the impact of global risks on the social and economic development of countries is examined. Economic, social, environmental, geopolitical, technological risks are analyzed in a coordinated fashion. The article notes that the main risks are in the field of environment and ecology. Anthropogenic pressure amplification, scientific and technological advance have an influence on the natural environment. The risks of infrastructure and environmental damage in danger zone are increased because of the growth of the frequency of extreme weather events. The measures for the protection of the environment are examined. The unilateral approach to solving international issues, instead of the collective efforts of the international community; the deployment of weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical, biological and technologies for the production of radioactive materials; escalation of economic and resource nationalization (the desire of States to expropriate or restrict the export of important for the world economy of resources, etc. promote the increasing geopolitical risks.Economic risks include the risk in terms of their likelihood their impact on the macroeconomic, as from the financial systems and infrastructure to price volatility and regulatory issues. Social risks are the risks relating to instability of population dynamics, social crises and human survival.Technological risks include such problems as software defects, failure of important information systems, upon which today industrial production is depended, the services and communications sector; the escalation of large-scale cyber-attacks; theft of electronic information and the illegal usage of personal data. The trends that can intensify the global risks or to change the correlation between them are analyzed in this article.

Asphyxia-related risk factors and their timing in spastic cerebral palsy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Lene F.; Schendel, Diana; Grove, Jakob

2008-01-01

Objective To investigate the association of asphyxia-related conditions (reducing blood flow or blood oxygen levels in the fetus) with spastic cerebral palsy (CP) considering different gestational age groups and the timing of risk. Design Population-based case-control study. Setting Danish Cerebral...... Palsy Register in eastern Denmark and Danish Medical Birth Register. Population or Sample 271 singletons with spastic CP and 217 singleton controls, frequency matched by gestational age group, born 1982-1990 in eastern Denmark. Methods Data were abstracted from medical records, and a priori asphyxia...

A literature-based preliminary characterization of risks in the nuclear waste management system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daling, P.M.; Rhoads, R.E.; Van Luik, A.E.

1990-04-01

The objectives of this study were to (1) review the literature containing information on risks in the nuclear waste management system and (2) use this information to develop preliminary estimates of the potential magnitudes of these risks. Information was collected on a broad range of risk categories to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in communicating information about the risks in the waste management system. The study, which was completed prior to passage of the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, examined all of the portions of the nuclear waste management system envisioned by the DOE in the 1985 ''Mission Plant for the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program.'' As such, there may be statements in this paper that are not consistent with current DOE positions. The scope of this paper includes the repository, the integral Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) facility, and the transportation system that supports the repository and the MRS facility. Based on the results of this analysis, it is concluded that the radiological risks in the waste management system are small relative to nonradiological risks and relative to the risks of exposure to natural background radiation. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

The biological bases of the dose-effect relationship; Les bases biologiques de la relation dose-effet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lafuma, J

2001-06-01

In radiation protection, the recent data in epidemiology, in animal experimentation and on the base researches are no more compatible with a linear dose-effect relationship without threshold and do not account for the radiological risks at low doses. The cancers should be accelerated by radiations as any pathology linked to the ageing and for which threshold exit. Relative to the genetic risk it is known today that the natural exposure that lasts for several generations has not lead excess of hereditary illness as it was to be feared in 1959 for several countries. Considering that for populations the exposure levels induced by human activities have already been, under these ones of average natural exposures the genetic risk can be negligible and it is the somatic risk alone, with its thresholds that has to be into account. (N.C.)

12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... credit risk capital requirement, its market risk capital requirement, and its operations risk capital... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND...

Risk of surgery for subacromial impingement syndrome in relation to neck-shoulder complaints and occupational biomechanical exposures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svendsen, Susanne Wulff; Dalbøge, Annett; Andersen, JH

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this longitudinal study was to evaluate the risk of surgery for subacromial impingement syndrome (SIS) in relation to neck-shoulder complaints and occupational biomechanical shoulder exposures. METHODS: The study was based on the Musculoskeletal Research Database at the Dan......OBJECTIVES: The aim of this longitudinal study was to evaluate the risk of surgery for subacromial impingement syndrome (SIS) in relation to neck-shoulder complaints and occupational biomechanical shoulder exposures. METHODS: The study was based on the Musculoskeletal Research Database....... Using no neck-shoulder complaints and low shoulder load at baseline as a reference, no neck-shoulder complaints and high shoulder load showed an adjusted hazard ratio (HR adj) of 2.55 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.59-4.09], while neck-shoulder complaints in combination with high shoulder load...

The perception of risks related to electricity generation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Midden, C J; Daamen, D D; Verplanken, B

1987-01-01

Some of the key findings are discussed of psychological research on the perception of risks and attitudes with respect to the use of uranium and coal for electricity generation. It appears that attitudes are mostly not based on ideology but rather determined by a trade-off of expected risks and advantages. Lay estimates of probabilities are compared with expert judgements. In the last section attitudes of people living near existing or planned power plants are analyzed. Serious doubts are raised about the possibilities to give residents economic compensation for exposure to risks. 1 fig., 29 refs.

AIDS Risk Perception and its related factors in Women with High-Risk Behaviors in Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahin Tafazoli

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Background & aim: AIDS is one of the major public health challenges all over the world. Perceived risk is a significant predictor of high-risk behaviors related to AIDS. Women constitute more than half of the HIV patients, and the rate of female sex workers with AIDS is more than the rest of female population. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate AIDS risk perception and its related factors in females with high-risk behaviors in Mashhad, Iran. Methods:This descriptive study was performed on 58 women who were arrested on prostitution charges and imprisoned in Mashhad Vakil Abad Prison in 2013. The data were collected using self-designed questionnaires assessing knowledge regarding AIDS as well as sexual activities and also perceived risk of HIV questionnaire. One-way ANOVA, independent samples t-test, linear regression, and Chi-square tests were run, using SPSS version 16. Results: The mean score of HIV risk perception was 18.43±5.92, which was average. There was a significant relationship between the mean score of perceived risk of HIV and knowledge regarding AIDS (P=0.005, alcohol consumption (P=0.04, history of addiction (P=0.008, using contraceptive methods (P=0.01, condom use during intercourse (P=0.02, voluntary HIV testing (P=0.001, and follow-up of HIV test (P=0.009. Conclusion:The findings of the present study revealed that knowledge, alcohol consumption, history of addiction, contraceptive methods, the rate of condom use during intercourse, as well as voluntary HIV testing and follow-up were associated with perceived risk of HIV infection. Therefore, taking the necessary steps towards health promotion through appropriate training and interventional approaches seems to be mandatory for reducing high-risk behaviors in populations with low risk perception.

Social Networking Technology Use and Engagement in HIV-Related Risk and Protective Behaviors Among Homeless Youth.

Science.gov (United States)

Barman-Adhikari, Anamika; Rice, Eric; Bender, Kimberly; Lengnick-Hall, Rebecca; Yoshioka-Maxwell, Amanda; Rhoades, Harmony

2016-07-01

Preliminary studies with homeless youth have found surprisingly pervasive social media use and suggest that youth's online interactions may be associated with their HIV-related risk and protective behaviors. As homeless youth are transient and difficult to engage in place-based services, social media may represent a novel venue for intervention. A critical 1st step in intervention development is gaining greater understanding of how homeless youth use social media, especially as it relates to who they connect to and around what topics. Given the salience of social networking sites in the lives of these otherwise difficult-to-reach adolescents, and their potential to disseminate prevention interventions, this study assessed associations between online social networking technology use and HIV risk behaviors among homeless youth in Los Angeles, California. Homeless youth ages 13 through 24 (N = 1,046) were recruited through 3 drop-in centers and surveyed about their social media use and self-reported HIV-related risk behaviors. Results suggest that social media use is widely prevalent among this population, and the content of these online interactions is associated with whether youth engage in risk or protective behaviors. Implications for interventions and further research are discussed.

Social Networking Technology Use and Engagement in HIV Related Risk and Protective Behaviors among Homeless Youth

Science.gov (United States)

Barman-Adhikari, Anamika; Rice, Eric; Bender, Kimberly; Lengnick-Hall, Rebecca; Yoshioka-Maxwell, Amanda; Rhoades, Harmony

2016-01-01

Preliminary studies with homeless youth find surprisingly pervasive social media use and suggest youths’ online interactions may be associated with their HIV-related risk and protective behaviors. As homeless youth are transient and difficult to engage in place-based services, social media may represent a novel venue for intervention. A critical first step in intervention development is gaining greater understanding of how homeless youth use social media especially as it relates to whom they connect to and around what topics. Given the salience of Social Networking Sites in the lives of these otherwise difficult to reach adolescents, and their potential to disseminate prevention interventions, this study assessed associations between online social networking technology use and HIV risk behaviors among homeless youth in Los Angeles, California. Homeless youth ages 13 through 24 (N=1046) were recruited through three drop-in centers and surveyed about their social media use and self-reported HIV-related risk behaviors. Results suggest that social media use is widely prevalent among this population, and the content of these online interactions is associated with whether or not they engage in risk or protective behaviors. Implications for interventions and further research are discussed. PMID:27337044

Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bendure, A.O.

1995-03-01

Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making is as much of a challenge as properly using the tool once it has been selected. Failure to consider customer and stakeholder requirements and the technical bases and differences in risk-based decision making tools will produce confounding and/or politically unacceptable results when the tool is used. Selecting a risk-based decisionmaking tool must therefore be undertaken with the same, if not greater, rigor than the use of the tool once it is selected. This paper presents a process for selecting a risk-based tool appropriate to a set of prioritization or resource allocation tasks, discusses the results of applying the process to four risk-based decision-making tools, and identifies the ``musts`` for successful selection and implementation of a risk-based tool to aid in decision making.

Risk Classification and Risk-based Safety and Mission Assurance

Science.gov (United States)

Leitner, Jesse A.

2014-01-01

Recent activities to revamp and emphasize the need to streamline processes and activities for Class D missions across the agency have led to various interpretations of Class D, including the lumping of a variety of low-cost projects into Class D. Sometimes terms such as Class D minus are used. In this presentation, mission risk classifications will be traced to official requirements and definitions as a measure to ensure that projects and programs align with the guidance and requirements that are commensurate for their defined risk posture. As part of this, the full suite of risk classifications, formal and informal will be defined, followed by an introduction to the new GPR 8705.4 that is currently under review.GPR 8705.4 lays out guidance for the mission success activities performed at the Classes A-D for NPR 7120.5 projects as well as for projects not under NPR 7120.5. Furthermore, the trends in stepping from Class A into higher risk posture classifications will be discussed. The talk will conclude with a discussion about risk-based safety and mission assuranceat GSFC.

Anemia risk in relation to lead exposure in lead-related manufacturing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nan-Hung Hsieh

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Lead-exposed workers may suffer adverse health effects under the currently regulated blood lead (BPb levels. However, a probabilistic assessment about lead exposure-associated anemia risk is lacking. The goal of this study was to examine the association between lead exposure and anemia risk among factory workers in Taiwan. Methods We first collated BPb and indicators of hematopoietic function data via health examination records that included 533 male and 218 female lead-exposed workers between 2012 and 2014. We used benchmark dose (BMD modeling to estimate the critical effect doses for detection of abnormal indicators. A risk-based probabilistic model was used to characterize the potential hazard of lead poisoning for job-specific workers by hazard index (HI. We applied Bayesian decision analysis to determine whether BMD could be implicated as a suitable BPb standard. Results Our results indicated that HI for total lead-exposed workers was 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.50–1.26 with risk occurrence probability of 11.1%. The abnormal risk of anemia indicators for male and female workers could be reduced, respectively, by 67–77% and 86–95% by adopting the suggested BPb standards of 25 and 15 μg/dL. Conclusions We conclude that cumulative exposure to lead in the workplace was significantly associated with anemia risk. This study suggests that current BPb standard needs to be better understood for the application of lead-exposed population protection in different scenarios to provide a novel standard for health management. Low-level lead exposure risk is an occupational and public health problem that should be paid more attention.

Oximeter-based autonomic state indicator algorithm for cardiovascular risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Grote, Ludger; Sommermeyer, Dirk; Zou, Ding; Eder, Derek N; Hedner, Jan

2011-02-01

Cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment is important in clinical practice. An autonomic state indicator (ASI) algorithm based on pulse oximetry was developed and validated for CV risk assessment. One hundred forty-eight sleep clinic patients (98 men, mean age 50 ± 13 years) underwent an overnight study using a novel photoplethysmographic sensor. CV risk was classified according to the European Society of Hypertension/European Society of Cardiology (ESH/ESC) risk factor matrix. Five signal components reflecting cardiac and vascular activity (pulse wave attenuation, pulse rate acceleration, pulse propagation time, respiration-related pulse oscillation, and oxygen desaturation) extracted from 99 randomly selected subjects were used to train the classification algorithm. The capacity of the algorithm for CV risk prediction was validated in 49 additional patients. Each signal component contributed independently to CV risk prediction. The sensitivity and specificity of the algorithm to distinguish high/low CV risk in the validation group were 80% and 77%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for high CV risk classification was 0.84. β-Blocker treatment was identified as an important factor for classification that was not in line with the ESH/ESC reference matrix. Signals derived from overnight oximetry recording provide a novel potential tool for CV risk classification. Prospective studies are warranted to establish the value of the ASI algorithm for prediction of outcome in CV disease.

Incidence of and breed-related risk factors for gastric dilatation-volvulus in dogs.

Science.gov (United States)

Glickman, L T; Glickman, N W; Schellenberg, D B; Raghavan, M; Lee, T L

2000-01-01

To compare incidence of and breed-related risk factors for gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) among 11 dog breeds (Akita, Bloodhound, Collie, Great Dane, Irish Setter, Irish Wolfhound, Newfoundland, Rottweiler, Saint Bernard, Standard Poodle, and Weimaraner). Prospective cohort study. 1,914 dogs. Owners of dogs that did not have a history of GDV were recruited at dog shows, and the dog's length and height and depth and width of the thorax and abdomen were measured. Information concerning the dogs' medical history, genetic background, personality, and diet was obtained from owners, and owners were contacted by mail and telephone at approximately 1-year intervals to determine whether dogs had developed GDV or died. Incidence of GDV based on the number of dog-years at risk was calculated for each breed, and breed-related risk factors were identified. Incidence of GDV for the 7 large (23 to 45 kg [50 to 99 lb]) and 4 giant (> 45 kg [> 99 lb]) breeds was 23 and 26 cases/1,000 dog-years at risk, respectively. Of the 105 dogs that developed GDV, 30 (28.6%) died. Incidence of GDV increased with increasing age. Cumulative incidence of GDV was 5.7% for all breeds. The only breed-specific characteristic significantly associated with a decreased incidence of GDV was an owner-perceived personality trait of happiness.

Changes in Classes of Injury-Related Risks and Consequences of Risk-Level Drinking: a Latent Transition Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Cochran, Gerald; Field, Craig; Caetano, Raul

2015-07-01

Risk-level drinking, drinking and driving, and alcohol-related violence are risk factors that result in injuries. The current study sought to identify which subgroups of patients experience the most behavioral change following a brief intervention. A secondary analysis of data from a brief alcohol intervention study was conducted. The sample (N = 664) includes at-risk drinkers who experienced an injury and were admitted for care to a Level 1 trauma center. Injury-related items from the Short Inventory of Problems+6 were used to perform a latent transition analysis to describe class transitions participants experienced following discharge. Four classes emerged for the year before and after the current injury. Most individuals transitioned from higher-risk classes into those with lower risk. Some participants maintained risky profiles, and others increased risks and consequences. Drinking and driving remained a persistent problem among the study participants. Although a large portion of intervention recipients improved risks and consequences of alcohol use following discharge, more intensive intervention services may be needed for a subset of patients who showed little or no improvement.

Risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) among male and female relatives of AAA patients.

Science.gov (United States)

van de Luijtgaarden, Koen M; Rouwet, Ellen V; Hoeks, Sanne E; Stolker, Robert J; Verhagen, Hence Jm; Majoor-Krakauer, Danielle

2017-04-01

Sex affects the presentation, treatment, and outcomes of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). Although AAAs are less prevalent in women, at least in the general population, women with an AAA have a poorer prognosis in comparison to men. Sex differences in the genetic predisposition for aneurysm disease remain to be established. In this study we investigated the familial risk of AAA for women compared to men. All living AAA patients included in a 2004-2012 prospective database were invited to the multidisciplinary vascular/genetics outpatient clinic between 2009 and 2012 for assessment of family history using detailed questionnaires. AAA risk for male and female relatives was calculated separately and stratified by sex of the AAA patients. Families of 568 AAA patients were investigated and 22.5% of the patients had at least one affected relative. Female relatives had a 2.8-fold and male relatives had a 1.7-fold higher risk than the estimated sex-specific population risk. Relatives of female AAA patients had a higher aneurysm risk than relatives of male patients (9.0 vs 5.9%, p = 0.022), corresponding to 5.5- and 2.0-fold increases in aneurysm risk in the female and male relatives, respectively. The risk for aortic aneurysm in relatives of AAA patients is higher than expected from population risk. The excess risk is highest for the female relatives of AAA patients and for the relatives of female AAA patients. These findings endorse targeted AAA family screening for female and male relatives of all AAA patients.

A Grey Theory Based Approach to Big Data Risk Management Using FMEA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maisa Mendonça Silva

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Big data is the term used to denote enormous sets of data that differ from other classic databases in four main ways: (huge volume, (high velocity, (much greater variety, and (big value. In general, data are stored in a distributed fashion and on computing nodes as a result of which big data may be more susceptible to attacks by hackers. This paper presents a risk model for big data, which comprises Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA and Grey Theory, more precisely grey relational analysis. This approach has several advantages: it provides a structured approach in order to incorporate the impact of big data risk factors; it facilitates the assessment of risk by breaking down the overall risk to big data; and finally its efficient evaluation criteria can help enterprises reduce the risks associated with big data. In order to illustrate the applicability of our proposal in practice, a numerical example, with realistic data based on expert knowledge, was developed. The numerical example analyzes four dimensions, that is, managing identification and access, registering the device and application, managing the infrastructure, and data governance, and 20 failure modes concerning the vulnerabilities of big data. The results show that the most important aspect of risk to big data relates to data governance.