Risk related behaviour under different ambient scent conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alina Gagarina

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The article analyses the effect of two ambient scents (peppermint and vanilla and their intensiveness on risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to identify the relationship of ambient scent type and intensiveness with risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Methodology/methods: 2×2 factorial experiment with control group was run. Ambient scent type (vanilla vs. peppermint and intensiveness (8 (1mg vs. 16 sprays (2mg of scent concentrate in the same room were manipulated as between subject variables. Risk aversion, effect of anchoring heuristic on bidding, and affect (risk and benefit heuristics were tracked as dependent variables. Scientific aim: To identify whether ambient scent type and intensiveness have effect on risk related behaviour. Findings: Evidence suggests that there are effects of ambient scent on risk related behaviour, thus fulfilling the missing gap to relate ambient environment to decision making heuristics when risks are involved. However, not all heuristics were affected by experimental conditions. Subjects were bidding significantly higher amounts under low anchor conditions, when peppermint scent was around (if compared to vanilla group. Affect risk was perceived as lower in peppermint ambient scent conditions, if compared to the control group. Intensity of ambient scent also had influence on affect risk: subjects perceived less risk under high scent intensity conditions. Conclusions: By manipulating ambient scent, marketers may reduce or increase consumers risk perception and behaviour and as a consequence influence their purchase decisions. Marketers could use peppermint scent in high intensiveness in the situations where they want consumers to undertake higher risks (expensive purchases, gambling, insurance, since stakes were higher under peppermint ambient scent condition

Building-related risk factors and work-related lower respiratory symptoms in 80 office buildings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendell, M.J.; Naco, G.M.; Wilcox, T.G.; Sieber, W.K.

2002-01-01

We assessed building-related risk factors for lower respiratory symptoms in office workers. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health in 1993 collected data during indoor environmental health investigations of workplaces. We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess relationships between lower respiratory symptoms in office workers and risk factors plausibly related to microbiologic contamination. Among 2,435 occupants in 80 office buildings, frequent, work-related multiple lower respiratory symptoms were strongly associated, in multivariate models, with two risk factors for microbiologic contamination: poor pan drainage under cooling coils and debris in outside air intake. Associations tended to be stronger among those with a history of physician-diagnosed asthma. These findings suggest that adverse lower respiratory health effects from indoor work environments, although unusual, may occur in relation to poorly designed or maintained ventilation systems, particularly among previously diagnosed asthmatics. These findings require confirmation in more representative buildings.

Building-related risk factors and work-related lower respiratory symptoms in 80 office buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendell, M.J.; Naco, G.M.; Wilcox, T.G.; Sieber, W.K.

2002-01-01

We assessed building-related risk factors for lower respiratory symptoms in office workers. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health in 1993 collected data during indoor environmental health investigations of workplaces. We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess relationships between lower respiratory symptoms in office workers and risk factors plausibly related to microbiologic contamination. Among 2,435 occupants in 80 office buildings, frequent, work-related multiple lower respiratory symptoms were strongly associated, in multivariate models, with two risk factors for microbiologic contamination: poor pan drainage under cooling coils and debris in outside air intake. Associations tended to be stronger among those with a history of physician-diagnosed asthma. These findings suggest that adverse lower respiratory health effects from indoor work environments, although unusual, may occur in relation to poorly designed or maintained ventilation systems, particularly among previously diagnosed asthmatics. These findings require confirmation in more representative buildings

Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

2007-03-01

To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (Ptrinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

Science.gov (United States)

Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

2010-11-01

Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

The necessity for comparative risk analyses as seen from the political point of view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steger, U.

1981-01-01

The author describes the current insufficient utilization of risk analyses in the political decision process and investigates if other technologies encounter the same difficulties of acceptance as in the nuclear energy field. This being likely he is trying to find out which contribution comparative risk analyses could make to the process of democratic will-formation so that new technologies are accepted. Firstly the author establishes theses criticizing the recent scientific efforts made in the field of risk analyses and their usability for the political decision process. He then defines the criteria risk analyses have to meet in order to serve as scientific elements for consultative political discussions. (orig./HP) [de

Treatment-dependent and treatment-independent risk factors associated with the risk of diabetes-related events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wilke, Thomas; Mueller, Sabrina; Groth, Antje

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to analyse which factors predict the real-world macro-/microvascular event, hospitalisation and death risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Furthermore, we aimed to investigate whether there exists both an under- and over-treatment risk...... of these patients. METHODS: We used a German claims/clinical data set covering the years 2010-12. Diabetes-related events were defined as (1) macro-, (2) microvascular events leading to inpatient hospitalisation, (3) other hospitalisations with type 2 diabetes mellitus as main diagnosis, (4) all-cause death and (5......) a composite outcome including all event categories 1-4. Factors associated with event risk were analysed by a Kaplan-Meier curve analysis and by multivariable Cox regression models. RESULTS: 229,042 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (mean age 70.2 years; mean CCI 6.03) were included. Among factors...

Decreasing Relative Risk Premium

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Frank

relative risk premium in the small implies decreasing relative risk premium in the large, and decreasing relative risk premium everywhere implies risk aversion. We finally show that preferences with decreasing relative risk premium may be equivalently expressed in terms of certain preferences on risky......We consider the risk premium demanded by a decision maker with wealth x in order to be indifferent between obtaining a new level of wealth y1 with certainty, or to participate in a lottery which either results in unchanged present wealth or a level of wealth y2 > y1. We define the relative risk...... premium as the quotient between the risk premium and the increase in wealth y1–x which the decision maker puts on the line by choosing the lottery in place of receiving y1 with certainty. We study preferences such that the relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine...

The Network of Counterparty Risk: Analysing Correlations in OTC Derivatives.

Science.gov (United States)

Nanumyan, Vahan; Garas, Antonios; Schweitzer, Frank

2015-01-01

Counterparty risk denotes the risk that a party defaults in a bilateral contract. This risk not only depends on the two parties involved, but also on the risk from various other contracts each of these parties holds. In rather informal markets, such as the OTC (over-the-counter) derivative market, institutions only report their aggregated quarterly risk exposure, but no details about their counterparties. Hence, little is known about the diversification of counterparty risk. In this paper, we reconstruct the weighted and time-dependent network of counterparty risk in the OTC derivatives market of the United States between 1998 and 2012. To proxy unknown bilateral exposures, we first study the co-occurrence patterns of institutions based on their quarterly activity and ranking in the official report. The network obtained this way is further analysed by a weighted k-core decomposition, to reveal a core-periphery structure. This allows us to compare the activity-based ranking with a topology-based ranking, to identify the most important institutions and their mutual dependencies. We also analyse correlations in these activities, to show strong similarities in the behavior of the core institutions. Our analysis clearly demonstrates the clustering of counterparty risk in a small set of about a dozen US banks. This not only increases the default risk of the central institutions, but also the default risk of peripheral institutions which have contracts with the central ones. Hence, all institutions indirectly have to bear (part of) the counterparty risk of all others, which needs to be better reflected in the price of OTC derivatives.

Issues and approaches in risk-based aging analyses of passive components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uryasev, S.P.; Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

1994-01-01

In previous NRC-sponsored work a general methodology was developed to quantify the risk contributions from aging components at nuclear plants. The methodology allowed Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs) to be modified to incorporate the age-dependent component failure rates and also aging maintenance models to evaluate and prioritize the aging contributions from active components using the linear aging failure rate model and empirical components aging rates. In the present paper, this methodology is extended to passive components (for example, the pipes, heat exchangers, and the vessel). The analyses of passive components bring in issues different from active components. Here, we specifically focus on three aspects that need to be addressed in risk-based aging prioritization of passive components

Risk and reliability analyses (LURI) and expert judgement techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pyy, P.; Pulkkinen, U.

1998-01-01

Probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) is currently used as a regulatory licensing tool in risk informed and plant performance based regulation. More often also utility safety improvements are based on PSA calculations as one criterion. PSA attempts to comprehensively identify all important risk contributors, compare them with each other, assess the safety level and suggest improvements based on its findings. The strength of PSA is that it is capable to provide decision makers with numerical estimates of risks. This makes decision making easier than the comparison of purely qualitative results. PSA is the only comprehensive tool that compactly attempts to include all the important risk contributors in its scope. Despite the demonstrated strengths of PSA, there are some features that have reduced its uses. For example, the PSA scope has been limited to the power operation and process internal events (transients and LOCAs). Only lately, areas such as shutdown, external events and severe accidents have been included in PSA models in many countries. Problems related to modelling are, e.g., that rather static fault and event tree models are commonly used in PSA to model dynamic event sequences. Even if a valid model may be generated, there may not be any other data sources to be used than expert judgement. Furthermore, there are a variety of different techniques for human reliability assessment (HRA) giving varying results. In the project Reliability and Risk Analyses (LURI) these limitations and shortcomings have been studied. In the decision making area, case studies on the application of decision analysis and a doctoral thesis have been published. Further, practical aid has been given to utilities and regulatory decision making. Model uncertainty effect on PSA results has been demonstrated by two case studies. Human reliability has been studied both in the integrated safety analysis study and in the study of maintenance originated NPP component faults based on the

Systems reliability analyses and risk analyses for the licencing procedure under atomic law

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berning, A.; Spindler, H.

1983-01-01

For the licencing procedure under atomic law in accordance with Article 7 AtG, the nuclear power plant as a whole needs to be assessed, plus the reliability of systems and plant components that are essential to safety are to be determined with probabilistic methods. This requirement is the consequence of safety criteria for nuclear power plants issued by the Home Department (BMI). Systems reliability studies and risk analyses used in licencing procedures under atomic law are identified. The stress is on licencing decisions, mainly for PWR-type reactors. Reactor Safety Commission (RSK) guidelines, examples of reasoning in legal proceedings and arguments put forth by objectors are also dealt with. Correlations are shown between reliability analyses made by experts and licencing decisions by means of examples. (orig./HP) [de

Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses. Volume 1, Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T.; Helton, J.C.; Murfin, W.B.; Hora, S.C.

1993-12-01

NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community

A case-control study of risk of leukaemia in relation to mobile phone use.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooke, R; Laing, S; Swerdlow, A J

2010-11-23

Mobile phone use is now ubiquitous, and scientific reviews have recommended research into its relation to leukaemia risk, but no large studies have been conducted. In a case-control study in South East England to investigate the relation of acute and non-lymphocytic leukaemia risk to mobile phone use, 806 cases with leukaemia incident 2003-2009 at ages 18-59 years (50% of those identified as eligible) and 585 non-blood relatives as controls (provided by 392 cases) were interviewed about mobile phone use and other potentially aetiological variables. No association was found between regular mobile phone use and risk of leukaemia (odds ratio (OR)=1.06, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.76, 1.46). Analyses of risk in relation to years since first use, lifetime years of use, cumulative number of calls and cumulative hours of use produced no significantly raised risks, and there was no evidence of any trends. A non-significantly raised risk was found in people who first used a phone 15 or more years ago (OR=1.87, 95% CI=0.96, 3.63). Separate analyses of analogue and digital phone use and leukaemia subtype produced similar results to those overall. This study suggests that use of mobile phones does not increase leukaemia risk, although the possibility of an effect after long-term use, while biologically unlikely, remains open.

Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jose Andres Calvache

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

Cost/benefit and risk/benefit analyses in LMFBR program planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brewer, S.T.; Benson, R.A.; Palmer, R.S.

1978-01-01

The subject is discussed under the following headings: incentives analyses, uranium availability, electrical demand, the present value of future savings, alternatives to the breeder, environmental considerations, development program risks, results and conclusions. (U.K.)

LWR safety studies. Analyses and further assessments relating to the German Risk Assessment Study on Nuclear Power Plants. Vol. 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

Critical review of the analyses of the German Risk Assessment Study on Nuclear Power Plants (DRS) concerning the reliability of the containment under accident conditions and the conditions of fission product release (transport and distribution in the environment). Main point of interest in this context is an explosion in the steam section and its impact on the containment. Critical comments are given on the models used in the DRS for determining the accident consequences. The analyses made deal with the mathematical models and database for propagation calculations, the methods of dose computation and assessment of health hazards, and the modelling of protective and safety measures. Social impacts of reactor accidents are also considered. (RF) [de

A case against bio markers as they are currently used in radioecological risk analyses: a problem of linkage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hinton, T.G.; Brechignac, F.

2005-01-01

Bio-markers are successfully used in human risk analyses as early indicators of contaminant exposure and predictors of deleterious effects. This has boosted the search for bio-markers in determining ecological risks to non-human biota, and particularly for assessments related to radioactive contaminants. There are difficulties, however, that prevent an easy transfer of the bio-marker concept from humans to non-human biota, as there are significant differences in endpoints of concern, units of observation and dose response relationships between human and ecological risk analyses. The use of bio-markers in ecological risk analyses currently lacks a linkage between molecular-level effects and quantifiable impacts observed in individuals and populations. This is important because ecological risk analyses generally target the population level of biological organisation. We highlight various examples that demonstrate the difficulties of linking individual responses to population-level impacts, such as indirect effects and compensatory interactions. Eco-toxicologists cope with such difficulties through the use of uncertainty or extrapolation factors. Extrapolation factors (EF) typically range from 1 to 1000 when linking effects observed in individuals to those predicted to occur in populations. We question what magnitude of EF will be required when going from a molecular level effect, measured by a bio-marker, all the way up to the population level of biological organisation. Particularly, we stress that a successful application of bio-markers to radioecological risk assessment can only be achieved once the connection has been made between changes in individual resource allocation-based life histories and population dynamics. This clearly emphasises the need to quantify the propagation of molecular and cellular level effects to higher levels of biological organisation, especially in the long-term via several generations of exposure. Finally, we identify pertinent research

The perils of picky eating: dietary breadth is related to extinction risk in insectivorous bats.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Justin G Boyles

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Several recent papers evaluate the relationship between ecological characteristics and extinction risk in bats. These studies report that extinction risk is negatively related to geographic range size and positively related to habitat specialization. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that extinction risk is also related to dietary specialization in insectivorous vespertilionid bats using both traditional and phylogenetically-controlled analysis of variance. We collected dietary data and The World Conservation Union (IUCN rankings for 44 Australian, European, and North American bat species. Our results indicate that species of conservation concern (IUCN ranking near threatened or above are more likely to have a specialized diet than are species of least concern. Additional analyses show that dietary breadth is not correlated to geographic range size or wing morphology, characteristics previously found to correlate with extinction risk. Therefore, there is likely a direct relationship between dietary specialization and extinction risk; however, the large variation in dietary breadth within species of least concern suggests that diet alone cannot explain extinction risk. Our results may have important implications for the development of predictive models of extinction risk and for the assignment of extinction risk to insectivorous bat species. Similar analyses should be conducted on additional bat families to assess the generality of this relationship between niche breadth and extinction risk.

Examining the associations between HIV-related stigma and health outcomes in people living with HIV/AIDS: a series of meta-analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Mitra, Sanjana; Chen, Shiyi; Gogolishvili, David; Globerman, Jason; Chambers, Lori; Wilson, Mike; Logie, Carmen H; Shi, Qiyun; Morassaei, Sara; Rourke, Sean B

2016-01-01

Objective To conduct a systematic review and series of meta-analyses on the association between HIV-related stigma and health among people living with HIV. Data sources A structured search was conducted on 6 electronic databases for journal articles reporting associations between HIV-related stigma and health-related outcomes published between 1996 and 2013. Study eligibility criteria Controlled studies, cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies in people living with HIV were considered for inclusion. Outcome measures Mental health (depressive symptoms, emotional and mental distress, anxiety), quality of life, physical health, social support, adherence to antiretroviral therapy, access to and usage of health/social services and risk behaviours. Results 64 studies were included in our meta-analyses. We found significant associations between HIV-related stigma and higher rates of depression, lower social support and lower levels of adherence to antiretroviral medications and access to and usage of health and social services. Weaker relationships were observed between HIV-related stigma and anxiety, quality of life, physical health, emotional and mental distress and sexual risk practices. While risk of bias assessments revealed overall good quality related to how HIV stigma and health outcomes were measured on the included studies, high risk of bias among individual studies was observed in terms of appropriate control for potential confounders. Additional research should focus on elucidating the mechanisms behind the negative relationship between stigma and health to better inform interventions to reduce the impact of stigma on the health and well-being of people with HIV. Conclusions This systematic review and series of meta-analyses support the notion that HIV-related stigma has a detrimental impact on a variety of health-related outcomes in people with HIV. This review can inform the development of multifaceted, intersectoral interventions to

Examining the associations between HIV-related stigma and health outcomes in people living with HIV/AIDS: a series of meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Rueda, Sergio; Mitra, Sanjana; Chen, Shiyi; Gogolishvili, David; Globerman, Jason; Chambers, Lori; Wilson, Mike; Logie, Carmen H; Shi, Qiyun; Morassaei, Sara; Rourke, Sean B

2016-07-13

To conduct a systematic review and series of meta-analyses on the association between HIV-related stigma and health among people living with HIV. A structured search was conducted on 6 electronic databases for journal articles reporting associations between HIV-related stigma and health-related outcomes published between 1996 and 2013. Controlled studies, cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies in people living with HIV were considered for inclusion. Mental health (depressive symptoms, emotional and mental distress, anxiety), quality of life, physical health, social support, adherence to antiretroviral therapy, access to and usage of health/social services and risk behaviours. 64 studies were included in our meta-analyses. We found significant associations between HIV-related stigma and higher rates of depression, lower social support and lower levels of adherence to antiretroviral medications and access to and usage of health and social services. Weaker relationships were observed between HIV-related stigma and anxiety, quality of life, physical health, emotional and mental distress and sexual risk practices. While risk of bias assessments revealed overall good quality related to how HIV stigma and health outcomes were measured on the included studies, high risk of bias among individual studies was observed in terms of appropriate control for potential confounders. Additional research should focus on elucidating the mechanisms behind the negative relationship between stigma and health to better inform interventions to reduce the impact of stigma on the health and well-being of people with HIV. This systematic review and series of meta-analyses support the notion that HIV-related stigma has a detrimental impact on a variety of health-related outcomes in people with HIV. This review can inform the development of multifaceted, intersectoral interventions to reduce the impact of HIV-related stigma on the health and well-being of people living

Quality and completeness of risk analyses. Vol. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1992-06-01

The program described was started in 1974, at Risoe National Laboratory. The motivation was criticism then being directed at the Reactor Safety Study WASH 1400, and the view that if risk analysis were to have a future as a scientific study, then its procedures would need to be verified. The material described is a record of a prolonged set of experiments and experiences and this second edition of the report includes an update of the research to cover a study of 35 risk analyses reviewed and checked between 1988 and 1992. A survey is presented of the ways in which incompleteness, lacunae, and oversights arise in risk analysis. Areas were detailed knowledge of disturbance causes and consequences need to be known are alarm priority setting, suppression of nuisance alarms and status annunciation signals, advanced shut down system design and runback systems, alarm and disturbance analysis, automatic plant supervision, disturbance diagnosis and testing support, and monitoring of safe operation margins. Despite improvements in risk analysis technique, in safety management, and in safety design, there will always be problems of ignorance, of material properties, of chemical reactions, of behavioural patterns and safety decision making, which leave plants vulnerable and hazardous. (AB) (24 refs.)

Host-Country Related Risk Factors in International Construction: Meta-Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Güzin AYDOGAN

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Internationalization has been on the agenda of construction firms as a strategic option in global competition. Due to globalization every sector including the construction industry has faced with high levels of competitiveness, uncertainty, and risk. International construction involves common risks to domestic construction, as well as risks that are related to the host country. These risks have serious effects on the performance of international projects. Since the sustainable competitiveness of international contractors depends largely on the effective management of these risks, their assessment becomes vital for the success of international contractors. The main aim of this study is to analyse the risks for international construction projects that are related to the host country. Meta-analysis technique is used in order to determine these risks. This paper, therefore, reviews the literature that has been published in four most respected construction and management journals, these being; Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Journal of Management in Engineering, Construction Management and Economics, and International Journal of Project Management for the period of 2000-2010. International construction risk assessment models are also reviewed within the context of this study, since host country related risk factors were found to have serious effects on the profitability of international contractors due to literature review. As a result; political stability, law and regulations, exchange rate risk, cultural differences, inflation, expropriation, tax discrimination, language barrier, bribery and corruption, force majeure, and societal conflicts in the host country are found to be the most important risk factors in international construction. Findings of this study can be used in risk assessment models for international construction projects.

Sexual HIV Risk Among Male Parolees and Their Female Partners: The Relate Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Comfort, Megan; Reznick, Olga Grinstead; Dilworth, Samantha E; Binson, Diane; Darbes, Lynae A; Neilands, Torsten B

The massively disproportionate impact of America's prison boom on communities of color has raised questions about how incarceration may affect health disparities, including disparities in HIV. Primary partners are an important source of influence on sexual health. In this paper, we investigate sexual HIV risk among male-female couples following a man's release from prison. We draw upon data from the Relate Project, a novel cross-sectional survey of recently released men and their female partners in Oakland and San Francisco, California (N=344). Inferential analyses use the actor-partner model to explore actor and partner effects on sexual HIV risk outcomes. Dyadic analyses of sexual HIV risk among male parolees and their female partners paint a complex portrait of couples affected by incarceration and of partners' influences on each other. Findings indicate that demographic factors such as education level and employment status, individual psycho-social factors such as perception of risk, and relationship factors such as commitment and power affect sexual HIV risk outcomes. The Relate Project provides a novel dataset for the dyadic analysis of sexual risk among male parolees and their female partners, and results highlight the importance of focusing on the couple as a unit when assessing HIV risk and protective behaviors. Results also indicate potentially fruitful avenues for population-specific interventions that may help to reduce sexual health disparities among couples affected by incarceration.

Risk of ovarian cancer in women with first-degree relatives with cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soegaard, Marie; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Jensen, Allan

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of ovarian cancer in women with first-degree relatives with cancer at one of the four most frequent hereditary sites based on validated cancer diagnoses and to examine the association according to age at diagnosis of ovarian cancer and histology. DESIGN: Case......-control study. SETTING AND POPULATION: First-degree relatives of 554 women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and 1,564 controls were included. METHODS: Analyses were performed using multiple logistic regression models. RESULTS: Ovarian cancer in a first-degree relative was significantly associated...... with increased risk of ovarian cancer (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.4-4.1 (mother or sister)). Ovarian cancer in a first-degree relative appeared to be a stronger risk factor for early-onset (cancer than late-onset (OR, 5.3; 95% CI, 2.0-14.1 vs. OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.0-3.4). The positive association...

Sexual orientation disparities in cancer-related risk behaviors of tobacco, alcohol, sexual behaviors, and diet and physical activity: pooled Youth Risk Behavior Surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosario, Margaret; Corliss, Heather L; Everett, Bethany G; Reisner, Sari L; Austin, S Bryn; Buchting, Francisco O; Birkett, Michelle

2014-02-01

We examined sexual orientation disparities in cancer-related risk behaviors among adolescents. We pooled data from the 2005 and 2007 Youth Risk Behavior Surveys. We classified youths with any same-sex orientation as sexual minority and the remainder as heterosexual. We compared the groups on risk behaviors and stratified by gender, age ( 14 years), and race/ethnicity. Sexual minorities (7.6% of the sample) reported more risk behaviors than heterosexuals for all 12 behaviors (mean = 5.3 vs 3.8; P sexual orientation disparities in analyses by gender, followed by age, and then race/ethnicity; they persisted in analyses by gender, age, and race/ethnicity, although findings were nuanced. Data on cancer risk, morbidity, and mortality by sexual orientation are needed to track the potential but unknown burden of cancer among sexual minorities.

Risk analyses in nuclear engineerig, their value in terms of information, and their limits in terms of applicability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heuser, F.W.

1983-01-01

This contribution first briefly explains the main pillars of the deterministic safety concept as developed in nuclear engineering, and some basic ideas on risk analyses in general. This is followed by an outline of the methodology and main purposes of risk analyses. The German Risk Study is taken as an example to discuss selected aspects with regard to information value and limits of risk analyses. The main conclusions state that risk analyses are a valuable instrument for quantitative safety evaluation, leading to a better understanding of safety problems and their prevention, and allowing a comparative assessment of various safety measures. They furthermore allow a refined evaluation of a variety of accident parameters and other impacts determining the risk emanating from accidents. The current state of the art in this sector still leaves numerous uncertainties so that risk analyses yield information for assessments rather than for definite predictions. However, the urge for quantifying the lack of knowledge leads to a better and more precise determination of the gaps still to be filled up by researchers and engineers. Thus risk analyses are a useful help in defining suitable approaches and setting up standards, showing the tasks to be fulfilled in safety research in general. (orig./HSCH) [de

75 FR 6344 - Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for Importation of Fresh Figs, Pomegranates, and...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-02-09

...] Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for Importation of Fresh Figs, Pomegranates, and Baby Kiwi...: Notice. SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared two pest risk analyses, one with... the risks of introducing or disseminating plant pests or noxious weeds via the importation of figs...

Association between Adult Height and Risk of Colorectal, Lung, and Prostate Cancer : Results from Meta-analyses of Prospective Studies and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Khankari, Nikhil K.; Shu, Xiao Ou; Wen, Wanqing; Kraft, Peter; Lindström, Sara; Peters, Ulrike; Schildkraut, Joellen; Schumacher, Fredrick; Bofetta, Paolo; Risch, Angela; Bickeböller, Heike; Amos, Christopher I.; Easton, Douglas; Eeles, Rosalind A.; Gruber, Stephen B.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hunter, David J.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Pierce, Brandon L.; Zheng, Wei; Blalock, Kendra; Campbell, Peter T.; Casey, Graham; Conti, David V.; Edlund, Christopher K.; Figueiredo, Jane; James Gauderman, W.; Gong, Jian; Green, Roger C.; Harju, John F.; Harrison, Tabitha A.; Jacobs, Eric J.; Jenkins, Mark A.; Jiao, Shuo; Li, Li; Lin, Yi; Manion, Frank J.; Moreno, Victor; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Raskin, Leon; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Seminara, Daniela; Severi, Gianluca; Stenzel, Stephanie L.; Thomas, Duncan C.; Hopper, John L.; Southey, Melissa C.; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; Gibson, Lorna; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Ahsan, Habib; Whittemore, Alice; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; Hofman, Albert; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Nevanlinna, Heli; Muranen, Taru A.; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hein, Rebecca; Dahmen, Norbert; Beckman, Lars; Crisponi, Laura; Hall, Per; Czene, Kamila; Irwanto, Astrid; Liu, Jianjun; Easton, Douglas F.; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Eeles, Rosalind; Kote-Jarai, Zsofia; Muir, Kenneth; Giles, Graham; Neal, David; Donovan, Jenny L.; Hamdy, Freddie C.; Wiklund, Fredrik; Gronberg, Henrik; Haiman, Christopher; Schumacher, Fred; Travis, Ruth; Riboli, Elio; Hunter, David; Gapstur, Susan; Berndt, Sonja; Chanock, Stephen; Han, Younghun; Su, Li; Wei, Yongyue; Hung, Rayjean J.; Brhane, Yonathan; McLaughlin, John; Brennan, Paul; McKay, James D.; Rosenberger, Albert; Houlston, Richard S.; Caporaso, Neil; Teresa Landi, Maria; Heinrich, Joachim; Wu, Xifeng; Ye, Yuanqing; Christiani, David C.

2016-01-01

Background: Observational studies examining associations between adult height and risk of colorectal, prostate, and lung cancers have generated mixed results. We conducted meta-analyses using data from prospective cohort studies and further carried out Mendelian randomization analyses, using

Association between firearm ownership, firearm-related risk and risk reduction behaviours and alcohol-related risk behaviours.

Science.gov (United States)

Wintemute, Garen J

2011-12-01

Alcohol use and firearm ownership are risk factors for violent injury and death. To determine whether firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours, the author conducted a cross-sectional study using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data for eight states in the USA from 1996 to 1997 (the most recent data available). Altogether, 15 474 respondents provided information on firearm exposure. After adjustment for demographics and state of residence, firearm owners were more likely than those with no firearms at home to have ≥5 drinks on one occasion (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.50), to drink and drive (OR 1.79; 95% CI 1.34 to 2.39) and to have ≥60 drinks per month (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.14 to 1.83). Heavy alcohol use was most common among firearm owners who also engaged in behaviours such as carrying a firearm for protection against other people and keeping a firearm at home that was both loaded and not locked away. The author concludes that firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours.

Relative and absolute risk models for cancer mortality in ankylosing spondylitis patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muirhead, C.R.; Darby, S.C.

1989-01-01

The updated analyses presented in this paper have indicated that, even after allowing for the effects of other variables, the relative risk of all cancers excluding leukaemia and colon cancer among the irradiated spondylitics tails off beyond twenty-five years following exposure. Additionally, the corresponding absolute excess risk also tails off. This is still the only major study to show a wearing off of the radiation-related risk for such a grouping of cancers (although some wearing off has been seen for individual cancers such as bone in other studies). Further analysis of the spondylitic data (Darby, Doll and Smith, 1988) has not found any artificial explanation for the tailing off in risk, such as changes in lifestyle. However, it is noticeable that the dose was delivered to the spondylitics in fractions (see Lewis et al., 1988, table IV) rather than instantaneously, although it is not immediately obvious why this should have affected the temporal pattern of the risk. (author)

Decreasing relative risk premium

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Frank

2007-01-01

such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...

Circulating biomarkers for predicting cardiovascular disease risk; a systematic review and comprehensive overview of meta-analyses.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thijs C van Holten

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is one of the major causes of death worldwide. Assessing the risk for cardiovascular disease is an important aspect in clinical decision making and setting a therapeutic strategy, and the use of serological biomarkers may improve this. Despite an overwhelming number of studies and meta-analyses on biomarkers and cardiovascular disease, there are no comprehensive studies comparing the relevance of each biomarker. We performed a systematic review of meta-analyses on levels of serological biomarkers for atherothrombosis to compare the relevance of the most commonly studied biomarkers. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Medline and Embase were screened on search terms that were related to "arterial ischemic events" and "meta-analyses". The meta-analyses were sorted by patient groups without pre-existing cardiovascular disease, with cardiovascular disease and heterogeneous groups concerning general populations, groups with and without cardiovascular disease, or miscellaneous. These were subsequently sorted by end-point for cardiovascular disease or stroke and summarized in tables. We have identified 85 relevant full text articles, with 214 meta-analyses. Markers for primary cardiovascular events include, from high to low result: C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, the apolipoprotein A/apolipoprotein B ratio, high density lipoprotein, and vitamin D. Markers for secondary cardiovascular events include, from high to low result: cardiac troponins I and T, C-reactive protein, serum creatinine, and cystatin C. For primary stroke, fibrinogen and serum uric acid are strong risk markers. Limitations reside in that there is no acknowledged search strategy for prognostic studies or meta-analyses. CONCLUSIONS: For primary cardiovascular events, markers with strong predictive potential are mainly associated with lipids. For secondary cardiovascular events, markers are more associated with ischemia. Fibrinogen is a

Environmental risk factors for autism: an evidence-based review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Modabbernia, Amirhossein; Velthorst, Eva; Reichenberg, Abraham

2017-01-01

According to recent evidence, up to 40-50% of variance in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) liability might be determined by environmental factors. In the present paper, we conducted a review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of environmental risk factors for ASD. We assessed each review for quality of evidence and provided a brief overview of putative mechanisms of environmental risk factors for ASD. Current evidence suggests that several environmental factors including vaccination, maternal smoking, thimerosal exposure, and most likely assisted reproductive technologies are unrelated to risk of ASD. On the contrary, advanced parental age is associated with higher risk of ASD. Birth complications that are associated with trauma or ischemia and hypoxia have also shown strong links to ASD, whereas other pregnancy-related factors such as maternal obesity, maternal diabetes, and caesarian section have shown a less strong (but significant) association with risk of ASD. The reviews on nutritional elements have been inconclusive about the detrimental effects of deficiency in folic acid and omega 3, but vitamin D seems to be deficient in patients with ASD. The studies on toxic elements have been largely limited by their design, but there is enough evidence for the association between some heavy metals (most important inorganic mercury and lead) and ASD that warrants further investigation. Mechanisms of the association between environmental factors and ASD are debated but might include non-causative association (including confounding), gene-related effect, oxidative stress, inflammation, hypoxia/ischemia, endocrine disruption, neurotransmitter alterations, and interference with signaling pathways. Compared to genetic studies of ASD, studies of environmental risk factors are in their infancy and have significant methodological limitations. Future studies of ASD risk factors would benefit from a developmental psychopathology approach, prospective design, precise exposure

CHANGES SDSS: the development of a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk

Science.gov (United States)

van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Zhang, Kaixi; Jäger, Stefan; Assmann, Andre; Kass, Steve; Andrejchenko, Vera; Olyazadeh, Roya; Berlin, Julian; Cristal, Irina

2014-05-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES (www.changes-itn.eu) and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO (http://www.increo-fp7.eu) a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk

76 FR 46268 - Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for the Importation of Fresh Pitaya and Pomegranates...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-08-02

...] Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for the Importation of Fresh Pitaya and Pomegranates From.... ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared pest risk analyses that... for approving the importation of commodities that, based on the findings of a pest- risk analysis, can...

76 FR 4278 - Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for the Importation of Fresh Edible Flowers of Izote...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-25

...] Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for the Importation of Fresh Edible Flowers of Izote... prepared pest risk analyses that evaluate the risks associated with the importation into the continental... risks of introducing or disseminating plant pests or noxious weeds via the importation of fresh edible...

Contributing risk factors for orthopedic device related infections in sina hospital, tehran, iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Hadadi, A; Zehtab, M J; Babagolzadeh, H; Ashraf, H

2011-02-01

In spite of decreasing incidence of orthopedic device-related infections to 1%, nowadays, device-related infection still remains a diagnostic, therapeutic and cost-related problem. The objective of this study is to evaluate the contributing risk factors for orthopedic device-related infections in Sina Hospital, Tehran, Iran. Three hundred and thirty patients who underwent orthopedic device implantation from 2002-2006 were enrolled; among them, 110 patients were complicated with infection. Descriptive and logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the risk factors for device related infections. Patients with infection were older compared to those without infection. The Staphylococcus aureus was the commonest organism. A correlation was observed between wound infection and external fixation, an underlying health condition, and addiction which were independent risk factors for a device related infection. Orthopedic device-related infection puts a great financial burden on patients and hospital resources and could lead to morbidity and mortality in patients. So, appropriate pre and postoperative wound care for dirty wounds, especially when external fixators are used, and in patients with poor conditions or addiction should be done with more caution.

75 FR 52302 - Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for the Importation of Fresh Celery, Arugula, and...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-08-25

... Inspection Service [Docket No. APHIS-2010-0074] Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for the... spinach from Colombia. We are making these pest risk analyses available to the public for review and..., based on the findings of a pest- risk analysis, can be safely imported subject to one or more of the...

[The genotype-based haplotype relative risk and transmission disequilibrium test analyses of familial febrile convulsions].

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Y; Wu, X; Guo, Z; Zhang, J; Pan, H; Li, M; Bao, X; Peng, J; Zou, L; Lin, Q

1999-10-01

To confirm the linkage of familial febrile convulsions to the short arm of chromosome 6(6p) or the long arm of chromosome 8(8q). The authors finished genotyping of Pst I locus on the coding region of heat shock protein (HSP) 70, 5'untranslated region of HSP70-1, 3' untranslated region of HSP70-2, D8S84 and D8S85. The data were processed by the genotype-based haplotype relative risk(GHRR) and transmission disequilibrium test(TDT) methods in PPAP. Some signs of association and disequilibrium between D8S85 and FC were shown by GHRR and TDT. A suspect linkage of familial febrile convulsions to the long arm of chromosome 8 has been proposed.

Non-Statistical Methods of Analysing of Bankruptcy Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pisula Tomasz

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The article focuses on assessing the effectiveness of a non-statistical approach to bankruptcy modelling in enterprises operating in the logistics sector. In order to describe the issue more comprehensively, the aforementioned prediction of the possible negative results of business operations was carried out for companies functioning in the Polish region of Podkarpacie, and in Slovakia. The bankruptcy predictors selected for the assessment of companies operating in the logistics sector included 28 financial indicators characterizing these enterprises in terms of their financial standing and management effectiveness. The purpose of the study was to identify factors (models describing the bankruptcy risk in enterprises in the context of their forecasting effectiveness in a one-year and two-year time horizon. In order to assess their practical applicability the models were carefully analysed and validated. The usefulness of the models was assessed in terms of their classification properties, and the capacity to accurately identify enterprises at risk of bankruptcy and healthy companies as well as proper calibration of the models to the data from training sample sets.

A risk-factor analysis of medical litigation judgments related to fall injuries in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Insook; Won, Seonae; Lee, Mijin; Lee, Won

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to find out the risk factors through analysis of seven medical malpractice judgments related to fall injuries. The risk factors were analysed by using the framework that approaches falls from a systems perspective and comprised people, organisational or environmental factors, with each factor being comprised of subfactors. The risk factors found in each of the seven judgments were aggregated into one framework. The risk factors related to patients (i.e. the people factor) were age, pain, related disease, activities and functional status, urination state, cognitive function impairment, past history of fall, blood transfusion, sleep endoscopy state and uncooperative attitude. The risk factors related to the medical staff and caregivers (i.e. people factor) were observation negligence, no fall prevention activities and negligence in managing high-risk group for fall. Organisational risk factors were a lack of workforce, a lack of training, neglecting the management of the high-risk group, neglecting the management of caregivers and the absence of a fall prevention procedure. Regarding the environment, the risk factors were found to be the emergency room, chairs without a backrest and the examination table. Identifying risk factors is essential for preventing fall accidents, since falls are preventable patient-safety incidents. Falls do not happen as a result of a single risk factor. Therefore, a systems approach is effective to identify risk factors, especially organisational and environmental factors.

Children with Elevated Psychosocial Risk Load Benefit Most from a Family-Based Preventive Intervention: Exploratory Differential Analyses from the German "Strengthening Families Program 10-14" Adaptation Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Bröning, Sonja; Baldus, Christiane; Thomsen, Monika; Sack, Peter-Michael; Arnaud, Nicolas; Thomasius, Rainer

2017-11-01

While the effectiveness of substance use prevention programs such as the Strengthening Families Program 10-14 (SFP) has been demonstrated in the USA, European SFP adaptations have not replicated these sizable effects. Following the rationale of the risk moderation hypothesis positing that elevated risk groups may benefit more from a preventive intervention than lower-risk groups, we reanalyzed evaluation data from a randomized controlled trial testing the adapted German version of SFP (SFP-D). We hypothesized a differential impact of risk status on intervention results. The study employed a minimal control condition. Of the N = 292 participating children, 73.5% qualified as at-risk because they lived in a deprived urban district, and 26.5% qualified as high risk because they additionally scored as "difficult" in the German Strengths and Difficulty Questionnaire (parents' reports using gender- and age-specific German norms). Outcomes were children's self-reports on substance use, mental health, family functioning, and quality of life. Data were analyzed with repeated measures linear mixed models and relative risk analyses. The high-risk group in the SFP-D condition achieved the best results compared with all other groups, especially in mental health and quality of life. Relative risk analyses on tobacco [alcohol] abstinence showed that an additional percentage of 29.8% [16.0%] of high-risk children in nonabstinent controls would have remained abstinent if they had participated in SFP-D. We conclude that risk load influences the impact of substance use prevention programs and discuss to what extent differential analyses can add value to prevention research.

Risk-based analyses in support of California hazardous site remediation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ringland, J.T.

1995-08-01

The California Environmental Enterprise (CEE) is a joint program of the Department of Energy (DOE), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories. Its goal is to make DOE laboratory expertise accessible to hazardous site cleanups in the state This support might involve working directly with parties responsible for individual cleanups or it might involve working with the California Environmental Protection Agency to develop tools that would be applicable across a broad range of sites. As part of its initial year's activities, the CEE supported a review to examine where laboratory risk and risk-based systems analysis capabilities might be most effectively applied. To this end, this study draws the following observations. The labs have a clear role in analyses supporting the demonstration and transfer of laboratory characterization or remediation technologies. The labs may have opportunities in developing broadly applicable analysis tools and computer codes for problems such as site characterization or efficient management of resources. Analysis at individual sites, separate from supporting lab technologies or prototyping general tools, may be appropriate only in limited circumstances. In any of these roles, the labs' capabilities extend beyond health risk assessment to the broader areas of risk management and risk-based systems analysis

Risk Aversion Relates to Cognitive Ability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

2016-01-01

Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making, rather than to risk preferences....

Risk aversion relates to cognitive ability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making rather than to risk preferences....

Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qin, Ping

2005-01-01

from various Danish longitudinal registers. Data were analysed with conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: This study confirms that people living in more urbanized areas are at a higher risk of suicide than their counterparts in less urbanized areas. However, this excess risk is largely eliminated...... when adjusted for personal marital, income, and ethnic differences; it is even reversed when further adjusted for psychiatric status. Moreover, the impact of urbanicity on suicide risk differs significantly by sex and across age. Urban living reduces suicide risk significantly among men, especially......BACKGROUND: The extent to which the high suicide rate in urban areas is influenced by exposures to risk factors for suicide other than urbanicity remains unknown. This population-based study aims to investigate suicide risk in relation to the level of urbanicity in the context of other factors...

Accidental Risk Analyses of the Istanbul and Canakkale Straits

Science.gov (United States)

Essiz, Betül; Dagkiran, Berat

2017-12-01

Maritime transportation plays an important role in the world. Commercial transport and navy are international maritime activities in different countries. Thanks to the role of straits and channels, these activities can be easier and faster, Turkey has a crucial importance on it because of importance of geographical location. The Turkish Straits are a series of internationally significant waterways connecting Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea. They consist of the Canakkale Strait, the Sea of Marmara, and the Istanbul Strait, all part of the sovereign sea territory of Turkey and subject to the regime of internal waters. They are conventionally considered by the boundary between the continents of Europe and Asia. Because of this geographical importance, all kinds of huge sized vessel activities and high volume cargo transportation always keep going in this waterway. On the other hand, the more maritime activities grow the more accident risks increase. So, can be examined the accident risks on Istanbul and Canakkale Straits and can be assessed risk analysis for them. In the context of the study, one can see general information of the Turkish Straits and the regulatory regime. In addition, tables are applied for vessel movement in the Turkish Straits by years in detail in order to sense variation of the vessel. Risk analyses may also be described in sections with many variables. This paper outlines ship accidents and the risk analysis of ship accidents is applied and resulted for the Turkish Straits. The last chapter concerns the Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) System in the Turkish Straits.

What are the main risk factors for running-related injuries?

Science.gov (United States)

Saragiotto, Bruno Tirotti; Yamato, Tiê Parma; Hespanhol Junior, Luiz Carlos; Rainbow, Michael J; Davis, Irene S; Lopes, Alexandre Dias

2014-08-01

Despite several studies that have been conducted on running injuries, the risk factors for running-related injuries are still not clear in the literature. The aim of this study was to systematically review prospective cohort studies that investigated the risk factors for running injuries in general. We conducted electronic searches without restriction of language on EMBASE (1980 to Dec 2012), PUBMED (1946 to Dec 2012), CINAHL (1988 to Dec 2012) SPORTDiscus (1977 to Dec 2012), Latin American and Caribbean Centre on Health Sciences Information (1985 to Dec 2012) and Scientific Electronic Library Online (1998 to Dec 2012) databases, using subject headings, synonyms, relevant terms and variant spellings for each database. Only prospective cohort studies investigating the risk factors for running-related musculoskeletal injuries were included in this review. Two independent reviewers screened each article and, if they did not reach a consensus, a third reviewer decided whether or not the article should be included. Year of publication, type of runners, sample size, definition of running-related musculoskeletal injury, baseline characteristics, reported risk factors and the statistical measurement of risk or protection association were extracted from the articles. A scale adapted by the authors evaluated the risk of bias of the articles. A total of 11 articles were considered eligible in this systematic review. A total of 4,671 pooled participants were analysed and 60 different predictive factors were investigated. The main risk factor reported was previous injury (last 12 months), reported in 5 of the 8 studies that investigated previous injuries as a risk factor. Only one article met the criteria for random selection of the sample and only six articles included a follow-up of 6 months or more. There was no association between gender and running injuries in most of the studies. It is possible that eligible articles for this review were published in journals that were

Fuel related risks; Braenslerisker

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Englund, Jessica; Sernhed, Kerstin; Nystroem, Olle; Graveus, Frank (Grontmij AB, (Sweden))

2012-02-15

The project, within which this work report was prepared, aimed to complement the Vaermeforsk publication 'Handbook of fuels' on fuel related risks and measures to reduce the risks. The fuels examined in this project where the fuels included in the first version of the handbook from 2005 plus four additional fuels that will be included in the second and next edition of the handbook. Following fuels were included: woodfuels (sawdust, wood chips, powder, briquettes), slash, recycled wood, salix, bark, hardwood, stumps, straw, reed canary grass, hemp, cereal, cereal waste, olive waste, cocoa beans, citrus waste, shea, sludge, forest industrial sludge, manure, Paper Wood Plastic, tyre, leather waste, cardboard rejects, meat and bone meal, liquid animal and vegetable wastes, tall oil pitch, peat, residues from food industry, biomal (including slaughterhouse waste) and lignin. The report includes two main chapters; a general risk chapter and a chapter of fuel specific risks. The first one deals with the general concept of risk, it highlights laws and rules relevant for risk management and it discuss general risks that are related to the different steps of fuel handling, i.e. unloading, storing, processing the fuel, transportation within the facility, combustion and handling of ashes. The information that was used to produce this chapter was gathered through a literature review, site visits, and the project group's experience from risk management. The other main chapter deals with fuel-specific risks and the measures to reduce the risks for the steps of unloading, storing, processing the fuel, internal transportation, combustion and handling of the ashes. Risks and measures were considered for all the biofuels included in the second version in the handbook of fuels. Information about the risks and risk management was gathered through interviews with people working with different kinds of fuels in electricity and heat plants in Sweden. The information from

Cancer in first-degree relatives and risk of testicular cancer in Denmark

Science.gov (United States)

Nordsborg, Rikke Baastrup; Meliker, Jaymie R.; Wohlfahrt, Jan; Melbye, Mads; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole

2011-01-01

Familial aggregation of testicular cancer has been reported consistently, but it is less clear if there is any association between risk of testicular cancer and other cancers in the family. We conducted a population based case-control study to examine the relationship between risk of testicular cancer and 22 different cancers in first-degree relatives. We included 3297 cases of testicular cancer notified to the Danish Cancer Registry between 1991 and 2003. 6594 matched controls were selected from the Danish Civil Registration System, which also provided the identity of 40,104 first-degree relatives of case and controls. Familial cancer was identified by linkage to the Danish Cancer Registry, and we used conditional logistic regression to analyse whether cancer among first-degree relatives was associated with higher risk of testicular cancer. Rate ratio (RR) for testicular cancer was 4.63 (95% CI: 2.41–8.87) when a father, 8.30(95% CI: 3.81–18.10) when a brother and 5.23 (95% CI: 1.35–20.26) when a son had testicular cancer compared with no familial testicular cancer. Results were similar when analyses were stratified by histologic subtypes of testicular cancer. Familial Non-Hodgkin lymphoma and oesophageal cancer were associated with testicular cancer; however these may be chance findings. The familial aggregation of testicular and possibly other cancers may be explained by shared genes and/or shared environmental factors, but the mutual importance of each of these is difficult to determine. PMID:21207375

Chronic and Acute Relational Risk Factors for Dating Aggression in Adolescence and Young Adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Collibee, Charlene; Furman, Wyndol

2016-04-01

Dating aggression is a prevalent and costly public health concern. Using a relational risk framework, this study examined acute and chronic relational risk factors (negative interactions, jealousy, support, and relationship satisfaction) and their effects on physical and psychological dating aggression. The study also examined the interaction between chronic and acute risk, allowing us to assess how changes in acute risk have differing effects depending on whether the individual is typically at higher chronic risk. A sample of 200 youth (100 female) completed seven waves of data, which spanned 9 years from middle adolescence to young adulthood (M age at Wave 1 = 15.83). Using hierarchical linear modeling, analyses revealed both acute (within-person) and chronic (between-person) levels in jealousy, negative interactions, and relationship satisfaction, were associated with physical and psychological dating aggression. Significant interactions between chronic and acute risk emerged in predicting physical aggression for negative interactions, jealousy, and relationship satisfaction such that those with higher levels of chronic risk are more vulnerable to increases in acute risk. These interactions between chronic and acute risk indicate that risk is not static, and dating aggression is particularly likely to occur at certain times for youth at high risk for dating aggression. Such periods of increased risk may provide opportunities for interventions to be particularly effective in preventing dating aggression or its consequences. Taken together, these findings provide support for the role of relational risk factors for dating aggression. They also underscore the importance of considering risk dynamically.

The capability concept – On how to define and describe capability in relation to risk, vulnerability and resilience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindbom, Hanna; Tehler, Henrik; Eriksson, Kerstin; Aven, Terje

2015-01-01

Capabilities-based planning and capability assessment are high on the agendas of several countries and organisations as part of their risk management and emergency preparedness. Despite this, few definitions of capability exist, and they are not easily related to concepts such as risk, vulnerability and resilience. The aim of the present study was thus to broaden the scientific basis of the risk field to also include the concept of capability. The proposed definition is based on a recently developed risk framework, and we define capability as the uncertainty about and the severity of the consequences of an activity given the occurrence of the initiating event and the performed task. We provide examples of how the response capability for a fictive scenario can be described using this definition, and illustrate how our definition can be used to analyse capability assessments prepared according to the Swedish crisis management system. We have analysed the content of 25 capability assessments produced in 2011 by stakeholders on local, regional and national level. It was concluded that none addressed uncertainty to any appreciable extent, and only a third described capability in terms of consequences and task, making it difficult to relate these capability assessments to risk assessments. - Highlights: • Few definitions of capability relate to definitions of risk, vulnerability and resilience. • We relate capability to risk, vulnerability and resilience. • We define capability using the components uncertainty, consequences, event and task

Consumption of Sugars, Sugary Foods and Sugary Beverages in Relation to Adiposity-Related Cancer Risk in the Framingham Offspring Cohort (1991-2013).

Science.gov (United States)

Makarem, Nour; Bandera, Elisa V; Lin, Yong; Jacques, Paul; Hayes, Richard B; Parekh, Niyati

2018-04-19

Higher sugar consumption may increase cancer risk by promoting insulin-glucose dysregulation, oxidative stress, hormonal imbalances, and excess adiposity. This prospective study investigates the association between dietary sugars(fructose and sucrose) and sugary foods and beverages in relation to combined and site-specific (breast, prostate, colorectal) adiposity-associated cancers. The analytic sample consisted of 3,184 adults, aged 26-84y, from the Framingham Offspring cohort. Diet data was first collected between 1991-1995 using a food frequency questionnaire. Intakes of fructose, sucrose, sugary foods and sugary beverages (fruit juice and sugar-sweetened beverages) were derived. Participants were followed up until 2013 to ascertain cancer incidence; 565 doctor-diagnosed adiposity-related cancers, including 124 breast, 157 prostate and 68 colorectal cancers occurred. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate associations. Tests for interaction with BMI and waist circumference were conducted. No associations were observed between fructose, sucrose, sugary food consumption and combined incidence of adiposity-related cancers or the examined site-specific cancers. While total consumption of sugary beverages was not associated with site-specific cancer risk, higher intakes of fruit juice were associated with 58% increased prostate cancer risk(HR:1.58;95%CI:1.04-2.41) in multivariable-adjusted models. In exploratory stratified analyses, higher sugary beverage intakes increased overall adiposity-related cancer risk by 59% in participants with excessive central adiposity(HR:1.59;95%CI:1.01-2.50)(p-trend=0.057). In this cohort of American adults, higher sugary beverage consumption was associated with increased cancer risk among participants with central adiposity. These analyses suggest that avoiding sugary beverages represents a simple dietary modification that may be used as an effective cancer control strategy. Copyright ©2018

Sensitivity in risk analyses with uncertain numbers.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tucker, W. Troy; Ferson, Scott

2006-06-01

Sensitivity analysis is a study of how changes in the inputs to a model influence the results of the model. Many techniques have recently been proposed for use when the model is probabilistic. This report considers the related problem of sensitivity analysis when the model includes uncertain numbers that can involve both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and the method of calculation is Dempster-Shafer evidence theory or probability bounds analysis. Some traditional methods for sensitivity analysis generalize directly for use with uncertain numbers, but, in some respects, sensitivity analysis for these analyses differs from traditional deterministic or probabilistic sensitivity analyses. A case study of a dike reliability assessment illustrates several methods of sensitivity analysis, including traditional probabilistic assessment, local derivatives, and a ''pinching'' strategy that hypothetically reduces the epistemic uncertainty or aleatory uncertainty, or both, in an input variable to estimate the reduction of uncertainty in the outputs. The prospects for applying the methods to black box models are also considered.

Perceived risk of prenatal diagnostic procedure-related miscarriage and Down syndrome among pregnant women.

Science.gov (United States)

Caughey, Aaron B; Washington, A Eugene; Kuppermann, Miriam

2008-03-01

The objective of the study was to identify correlates of perceived risk of carrying a Down syndrome-affected fetus or experiencing a procedure-related miscarriage among a diverse group of pregnant women. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 1081 English-, Spanish-, or Chinese-speaking women receiving prenatal care in the San Francisco Bay area. Perceived risk of procedure-related miscarriage or carrying a Down syndrome-affected fetus was assessed using a linear rating scale from 0 (no risk) to 1 (high risk). Bivariate and multivariable analyses were used to explore associations between maternal characteristics including age, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status and perceived risks of carrying a Down syndrome-affected fetus or experiencing a procedure-related miscarriage. Women aged 35 years old or older had a higher perceived risk of Down syndrome than younger women (0.28 vs 0.22 on a scale from 0 to 1, P self-perceived health status (+0.08, P = .045). Latinas (+0.11, P = .008), women with an annual income less than $35,000 (+0.09, P = .003), and those who had difficulty conceiving (+0.09, P = .026) had higher perceived procedure-related miscarriage risk. Among women aged 35 years or older, perceived risk of carrying a Down syndrome-affected fetus was associated with the inclination to undergo prenatal diagnosis. Women's perceived risks of carrying a Down syndrome-affected fetus or having a procedure-related miscarriage are associated with numerous characteristics that have not been shown to be associated with the actual risks of these events. These perceived risks are associated with prenatal diagnostic test inclination. Understanding patients' risk perceptions and effectively communicating risk is critical to helping patients make informed decisions regarding use of invasive prenatal testing.

Methodical treatment of dependent failures in risk analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hennings, W.; Mertens, J.

1987-06-01

In this report the state-of-the-art regarding dependent failures is compiled and commented on. Among others the following recommendations are infered: The term 'common mode failures' should be restricted to failures of redundant, similar components; the generic term is 'dependent failures' with the subsets 'causal failures' and 'common cause failures'. In risk studies, dependent failures should be covered as far as possible by 'explicit methods'. Nevertheless an uncovered rest remains, which should be accounted for by sensitivity analyses using 'implicit methods'. For this the homogeneous Marshall-Olkin model is recommended. Because the available reports on operating experiences only record 'common mode failures' systematically, it is recommended to additionally apply other methods, e.g. carry out a 'precursor study'. (orig.) [de

Threshold Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communication for Health Risks Related to Hazardous Ambient Temperature.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yang; Hoppe, Brenda O; Convertino, Matteo

2018-04-10

Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model is used to derive the exposure-response functions between daily maximum heat index and mortality (1998-2014) and morbidity (emergency department visits; 2007-2014). Specific causes considered include cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases, and diabetes. Six extreme temperature thresholds, corresponding to 1st-3rd and 97th-99th percentiles of local exposure history, are examined. All six extreme temperature thresholds capture significantly increased relative risks for all-cause mortality and morbidity. However, the cause-specific analyses reveal heterogeneity. Extreme cold thresholds capture increased mortality and morbidity risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and extreme heat thresholds for renal disease. Percentile-based extreme temperature thresholds are appropriate for initiating ERC targeting the general population. Tailoring ERC by specific causes may protect some but not all individuals with health conditions exacerbated by hazardous ambient temperature exposure. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Smokers' increased risk for disability pension: social confounding or health-mediated effects? Gender-specific analyses of the Hordaland Health Study cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Haukenes, Inger; Riise, Trond; Haug, Kjell; Farbu, Erlend; Maeland, John Gunnar

2013-09-01

Studies indicate that cigarette smokers have an increased risk for disability pension, presumably mediated by adverse health effects. However, smoking is also related to socioeconomic status. The current study examined the association between smoking and subsequent disability pension, and whether the association is explained by social confounding and/or health-related mediation. A subsample of 7934 men and 8488 women, aged 40-46, from the Hordaland Health Study, Norway (1997-1999), provided baseline information on smoking status, self-reported health measures and socioeconomic status. Outcome was register-based disability pension from 12 months after baseline to end of 2004. Gender stratified Cox regression analyses were used adjusted for socioeconomic status, physical activity, self-reported health and musculoskeletal pain sites. A total of 155 (2%) men and 333 (3.9%) women were granted disability pension during follow-up. The unadjusted disability risk associated with heavy smoking versus non-smoking was 1.88 (95% CI 1.23 to 2.89) among men and 3.06 (95% CI 2.23 to 4.20) among women. In multivariate analyses, adjusting for socioeconomic status, HRs were 1.33 (95% CI 0.84 to 2.11) among men and 2.22 (95% CI 1.58 to 3.13) among women. Final adjustment for physical activity, self-reported health and musculoskeletal pain further reduced the effect of heavy smoking in women (HR=1.53, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.16). Socioeconomic status confounded the smoking-related risk for disability pension; for female heavy smokers, however, a significant increased risk persisted after adjustment. Women may be particularly vulnerable to heavy smoking and to its sociomedical consequences, such as disability pension.

RISK ANALYSES USED IN ACCEPTANCE TESTING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oxana STOROJ

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This article is talking about risk based testing approach in user acceptance testing UAT (User Acceptance Testing. There are presented definitions of risk and risk based testing. In addition, we are talking about risks that can appear during UAT and we are describing the process of testing based on risks. We propose some techniques and methods of identifying risks such as using Brainstorming, Delphi method,probability analysis method and others. Also, risk traceability matrix is presented as a method of prioritizing risks.

Prenominal and postnominal reduced relative clauses: arguments against unitary analyses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sleeman, P.

2007-01-01

These last years, several analyses have been proposed in which prenominal and postnominal reduced relatives are merged in the same position. Kayne (1994) claims that both types of reduced relative clauses are the complement of the determiner. More recently, Cinque (2005) has proposed that both types

Incidence and risk factors of infections complications related to implantable venous-access ports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shim, Ji Sue; Seo, Tae Seok; Song, Myung Gyu; Cha, In Ho; Kim, Jun Suk; Choi, Chul Won; Seo, Jae Hong; Oh, Sang Cheul

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence and risk factors of infections associated with implantable venous access ports (IVAPs.) From August 2003 through November 2011, 1747 IVAPs were placed in our interventional radiology suite. One hundred forty four IVAPs were inserted in patients with hematologic malignancy and 1603 IVAPs in patients with solid tumors. Among them, 40 ports (23 women and 17 men; mean age, 57.1 years; range, 13-83) were removed to treat port-related infections. We evaluated the incidence of port-related infection, patient characteristics, bacteriologic data, and patient progress. Univariable analyses (t test, chi-square test, and Fisher's exact test) and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for IVAP related infection. Overall, 40 (2.3%) of 1747 ports were removed for symptoms of infection with an incidence rate of 0.067 events/1000 catheter-days. According to the univariable study, the incidences of infection were seemingly higher in the patients who received the procedure during inpatient treatment (p = 0.016), the patients with hematologic malignancy (p = 0.041), and the patients receiving palliative chemotherapy (p = 0.022). From the multiple binary logistic regression, the adjusted odds ratios of infection in patients with hematologic malignancies and those receiving palliative chemotherapy were 7.769 (p = 0.001) and 4.863 (p = 0.003), respectively. Microorganisms were isolated from 26 (65%) blood samples, and two of the most causative organisms were found to be Staphylococcus (n = 10) and Candida species (n = 7). The underlying hematologic malignancy and the state of receiving palliative chemotherapy were the independent risk factors of IVAP-related infection.

Incidence and risk factors of infections complications related to implantable venous-access ports

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shim, Ji Sue; Seo, Tae Seok; Song, Myung Gyu; Cha, In Ho; Kim, Jun Suk; Choi, Chul Won; Seo, Jae Hong; Oh, Sang Cheul [Korea University Guro Hospital, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2014-08-15

The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence and risk factors of infections associated with implantable venous access ports (IVAPs.) From August 2003 through November 2011, 1747 IVAPs were placed in our interventional radiology suite. One hundred forty four IVAPs were inserted in patients with hematologic malignancy and 1603 IVAPs in patients with solid tumors. Among them, 40 ports (23 women and 17 men; mean age, 57.1 years; range, 13-83) were removed to treat port-related infections. We evaluated the incidence of port-related infection, patient characteristics, bacteriologic data, and patient progress. Univariable analyses (t test, chi-square test, and Fisher's exact test) and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for IVAP related infection. Overall, 40 (2.3%) of 1747 ports were removed for symptoms of infection with an incidence rate of 0.067 events/1000 catheter-days. According to the univariable study, the incidences of infection were seemingly higher in the patients who received the procedure during inpatient treatment (p = 0.016), the patients with hematologic malignancy (p = 0.041), and the patients receiving palliative chemotherapy (p = 0.022). From the multiple binary logistic regression, the adjusted odds ratios of infection in patients with hematologic malignancies and those receiving palliative chemotherapy were 7.769 (p = 0.001) and 4.863 (p = 0.003), respectively. Microorganisms were isolated from 26 (65%) blood samples, and two of the most causative organisms were found to be Staphylococcus (n = 10) and Candida species (n = 7). The underlying hematologic malignancy and the state of receiving palliative chemotherapy were the independent risk factors of IVAP-related infection.

Systematic assessment of environmental risk factors for bipolar disorder: an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Bortolato, Beatrice; Köhler, Cristiano A; Evangelou, Evangelos; León-Caballero, Jordi; Solmi, Marco; Stubbs, Brendon; Belbasis, Lazaros; Pacchiarotti, Isabella; Kessing, Lars V; Berk, Michael; Vieta, Eduard; Carvalho, André F

2017-03-01

The pathophysiology of bipolar disorder is likely to involve both genetic and environmental risk factors. In our study, we aimed to perform a systematic search of environmental risk factors for BD. In addition, we assessed possible hints of bias in this literature, and identified risk factors supported by high epidemiological credibility. We searched the Pubmed/MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycInfo databases up to 7 October 2016 to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies that assessed associations between putative environmental risk factors and BD. For each meta-analysis, we estimated its summary effect size by means of both random- and fixed-effects models, 95% confidence intervals (CIs), the 95% prediction interval, and heterogeneity. Evidence of small-study effects and excess of significance bias was also assessed. Sixteen publications met the inclusion criteria (seven meta-analyses and nine qualitative systematic reviews). Fifty-one unique environmental risk factors for BD were evaluated. Six meta-analyses investigated associations with a risk factor for BD. Only irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) emerged as a risk factor for BD supported by convincing evidence (k=6; odds ratio [OR]=2.48; 95% CI=2.35-2.61; P<.001), and childhood adversity was supported by highly suggestive evidence. Asthma and obesity were risk factors for BD supported by suggestive evidence, and seropositivity to Toxoplasma gondii and a history of head injury were supported by weak evidence. Notwithstanding that several environmental risk factors for BD were identified, few meta-analyses of observational studies were available. Therefore, further well-designed and adequately powered studies are necessary to map the environmental risk factors for BD. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Relation of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors between Parents and Children.

Science.gov (United States)

Halvorsen, Tanya; Moran, Antoinette; Jacobs, David R; Steffen, Lyn M; Sinaiko, Alan R; Zhou, Xia; Steinberger, Julia

2015-11-01

To explore the relations of parent-child cardiometabolic risk factors and assess the influence of adiposity on these associations. Associations of adiposity, blood pressure (BP), lipids, fasting insulin and glucose, and a risk factor cluster score (CS) were evaluated in a cross-sectional study of 179 parents and their children (6-18 years, N = 255). Insulin resistance was assessed by euglycemic clamp in parents and children aged 10 years or older. Metabolic syndrome in parents was defined by National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. CSs of the risk factors were created based on age-specific z-scores. Analyses included Pearson correlation and linear regression, adjusted for parent and child age, sex, race, and body mass index (BMI), accounting for within-family correlation. We found positive parent-child correlations for measures of adiposity (BMI, BMI percentile, waist, subcutaneous fat, and visceral fat; r = 0.22-0.34, all P ≤ .003), systolic BP (r = 0.20, P = .002), total cholesterol (r = 0.39, P parent-child correlations, except systolic BP, remained significant. Although adiposity is strongly correlated between parents and children, many cardiometabolic risk factors correlate independent of parent and child BMI. Adverse parental cardiometabolic profiles may identify at-risk children independent of the child's adiposity status. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of reliability databases and the particular requirements of probabilistic risk analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meslin, T.

1989-01-01

Nuclear utilities have an increasing need to develop reliability databases for their operating experience. The purposes of these databases are often multiple, including both equipment maintenance aspects and probabilistic risk analyses. EDF has therefore been developing experience feedback databases, including the Reliability Data Recording System (SRDF) and the Event File, as well as the history of numerous operating documents. Furthermore, since the end of 1985, EDF has been preparing a probabilistic safety analysis applied to one 1,300 MWe unit, for which a large amount of data of French origin is necessary. This data concerns both component reliability parameters and initiating event frequencies. The study has thus been an opportunity for trying out the performance databases for a specific application, as well as in-depth audits of a number of nuclear sites to make it possible to validate numerous results. Computer aided data collection is also on trial in a number of plants. After describing the EDF operating experience feedback files, we discuss the particular requirements of probabilistic risk analyses, and the resources implemented by EDF to satisfy them. (author). 5 refs

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

2017-01-01

trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

2017-01-01

People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

Genetic variations in vitamin D-related pathways and breast cancer risk in African American women in the AMBER consortium

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Song; Haddad, Stephen A.; Hu, Qiang; Liu, Song; Lunetta, Kathryn L.; Ruiz-Narvaez, Edward A.; Hong, Chi-Chen; Zhu, Qianqian; Sucheston-Campbell, Lara; Cheng, Ting-Yuan David; Bensen, Jeannette T.; Johnson, Candace S.; Trump, Donald L.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Olshan, Andrew F.; Palmer, Julie R.; Ambrosone, Christine B.

2016-01-01

Studies of genetic variations in vitamin D-related pathways and breast cancer risk have been conducted mostly in populations of European ancestry, and only sparsely in African Americans (AA), who are known for a high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency. We analyzed 24,445 germline variants in 63 genes from vitamin D-related pathways in the African American Breast Cancer Epidemiology and Risk (AMBER) consortium, including 3,663 breast cancer cases and 4,687 controls. Odds ratios (OR) were derived from logistic regression models for overall breast cancer, by estrogen receptor (ER) status (1,983 ER positive and 1,098 ER negative), and for case-only analyses of ER status. None of the three vitamin D-related pathways were associated with breast cancer risk overall or by ER status. Gene-level analyses identified associations with risk for several genes at a nominal p ≤ 0.05, particularly for ER− breast cancer, including rs4647707 in DDB2. In case-only analyses, vitamin D metabolism and signaling pathways were associated with ER− cancer (pathway-level p = 0.02), driven by a single gene CASR (gene-level p = 0.001). The top SNP in CASR was rs112594756 (p = 7 × 10−5, gene-wide corrected p = 0.01), followed by a second signal from a nearby SNP rs6799828 (p = 1 × 10−4, corrected p = 0.03). In summary, several variants in vitamin D pathways were associated with breast cancer risk in AA women. In addition, CASR may be related to tumor ER status, supporting a role of vitamin D or calcium in modifying breast cancer phenotypes. PMID:26650177

Conclusive meta-analyses on antenatal magnesium may be inconclusive! Are we underestimating the risk of random error?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brok, Jesper; Huusom, Lene D; Thorlund, Kristian

2012-01-01

Results from meta-analyses significantly influence clinical practice. Both simulation and empirical studies have demonstrated that the risk of random error (i.e. spurious chance findings) in meta-analyses is much higher than previously anticipated. Hence, authors and users of systematic reviews a...... about the investigated intervention effect(s). We outline the rationale for conducting trial sequential analysis including some examples of the meta-analysis on antenatal magnesium for women at risk of preterm birth....

Variations with time and age in the relative risks of solid cancer incidence after radiation exposure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R.; de Vathaire, F.; Charles, M.W.

1997-01-01

The Japanese atomic bomb survivor cancer incidence dataset and data on five groups exposed to radiation for medical reasons in childhood are analysed and evidence found for a reduction in the radiation-induced relative risk of cancers other than leukaemia with increasing time since exposure and age at exposure. The rate of the reductions in relative risk with time since exposure are not significantly different for those exposed in childhood and for those exposed in adulthood, if adjustment is made for the effects on the relative risk of age at exposure. For those irradiated in childhood, there is a statistically significant annual reduction of 5.8% (95% Cl 2.8, 8.9) in excess relative risk, and there are no strong indications of inter-cohort heterogeniety in the speed of reduction of relative risk. After adjustment for the effects of age at exposure, there is a significant annual reduction of 3.6% (95% Cl 1.6, 5.6) in excess relative risk in all age-at-exposure groups. There are significant reductions of 5.2% (95% Cl 3.7, 6.8) in excess relative risk per year of age at exposure. There are statistically significant (P = 0.04) interactions between the exponential adjustments to the excess relative risk for age at exposure and time since exposure in the Japanese data, but no indications (P = 0.38) of such interactions when powers of time since exposure and attained age are used to adjust the excess relative risk, so that the fit of the model with power adjustments is to be preferred to that of the model with exponential adjustments. (author)

Alcohol Consumption as a Risk Factor for Acute and Chronic Pancreatitis: A Systematic Review and a Series of Meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Samokhvalov, Andriy V; Rehm, Jürgen; Roerecke, Michael

2015-12-01

Pancreatitis is a highly prevalent medical condition associated with a spectrum of endocrine and exocrine pancreatic insufficiencies. While high alcohol consumption is an established risk factor for pancreatitis, its relationship with specific types of pancreatitis and a potential threshold have not been systematically examined. We conducted a systematic literature search for studies on the association between alcohol consumption and pancreatitis based on PRISMA guidelines. Non-linear and linear random-effect dose-response meta-analyses using restricted cubic spline meta-regressions and categorical meta-analyses in relation to abstainers were conducted. Seven studies with 157,026 participants and 3618 cases of pancreatitis were included into analyses. The dose-response relationship between average volume of alcohol consumption and risk of pancreatitis was monotonic with no evidence of non-linearity for chronic pancreatitis (CP) for both sexes (p = 0.091) and acute pancreatitis (AP) in men (p = 0.396); it was non-linear for AP in women (p = 0.008). Compared to abstention, there was a significant decrease in risk (RR = 0.76, 95%CI: 0.60-0.97) of AP in women below the threshold of 40 g/day. No such association was found in men (RR = 1.1, 95%CI: 0.69-1.74). The RR for CP at 100 g/day was 6.29 (95%CI: 3.04-13.02). The dose-response relationships between alcohol consumption and risk of pancreatitis were monotonic for CP and AP in men, and non-linear for AP in women. Alcohol consumption below 40 g/day was associated with reduced risk of AP in women. Alcohol consumption beyond this level was increasingly detrimental for any type of pancreatitis. The work was financially supported by a grant from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (R21AA023521) to the last author.

Using risk analysis in Health Impact Assessment: the impact of different relative risks for men and women in different socio-economic groups

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nilunger, Louise; Diderichsen, Finn; Burström, Bo

2004-01-01

The aim of this study is to contribute to the emerging field of quantification of Health Impact Assessment (HIA), by analysing how different relative risks affect the burden of disease for various socio-economic groups (SES). Risk analysis, utilising attributable and impact fraction, raises several...... methodological considerations. The present study illustrates this by measuring the impact of changed distribution levels of smoking on lung cancer, ischemic heart disease (IHD), chronic obstructive lung disorder (COLD) and stroke for the highest and lowest socio-economic groups measured in disability adjusted...... the highest and lowest socio-economic groups may decrease by 75% or increase by 21% depending on the size of the relative risk. Assuming the same smoking prevalence for the lowest socio-economic group as for the highest (impact fraction), then the inequality may decrease by 7-26%. Consequently, the size...

Employment relations, flexibility and risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Carsten Strøby

Employment relations literature often distinguishes between social democratic/corporatist models of employment relations and liberal models of employment relations as they are seen as opposite or at least different ways of organizing labor markets. They are often characterized as having very...... different risk profiles in terms of relationships between employees, employers, and the state. Low levels of labor market regulation very often characterize the liberal models of employment relations as we know them from, for instance, the USA and the UK. This means that employment conditions are very often...... insecure and that the burden of unemployment risk mostly lies with the employees rather than the employer. Corporatist – or social democratic – employment relations models are, in contrast to the liberal models, often characterized by stricter regulation of the labor market and by high standards...

Immunochip analyses identify a novel risk locus for primary biliary cirrhosis at 13q14, multiple independent associations at four established risk loci and epistasis between 1p31 and 7q32 risk variants

Science.gov (United States)

Juran, Brian D.; Hirschfield, Gideon M.; Invernizzi, Pietro; Atkinson, Elizabeth J.; Li, Yafang; Xie, Gang; Kosoy, Roman; Ransom, Michael; Sun, Ye; Bianchi, Ilaria; Schlicht, Erik M.; Lleo, Ana; Coltescu, Catalina; Bernuzzi, Francesca; Podda, Mauro; Lammert, Craig; Shigeta, Russell; Chan, Landon L.; Balschun, Tobias; Marconi, Maurizio; Cusi, Daniele; Heathcote, E. Jenny; Mason, Andrew L.; Myers, Robert P.; Milkiewicz, Piotr; Odin, Joseph A.; Luketic, Velimir A.; Bacon, Bruce R.; Bodenheimer, Henry C.; Liakina, Valentina; Vincent, Catherine; Levy, Cynthia; Franke, Andre; Gregersen, Peter K.; Bossa, Fabrizio; Gershwin, M. Eric; deAndrade, Mariza; Amos, Christopher I.; Lazaridis, Konstantinos N.; Seldin, Michael F.; Siminovitch, Katherine A.

2012-01-01

To further characterize the genetic basis of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), we genotyped 2426 PBC patients and 5731 unaffected controls from three independent cohorts using a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array (Immunochip) enriched for autoimmune disease risk loci. Meta-analysis of the genotype data sets identified a novel disease-associated locus near the TNFSF11 gene at 13q14, provided evidence for association at six additional immune-related loci not previously implicated in PBC and confirmed associations at 19 of 22 established risk loci. Results of conditional analyses also provided evidence for multiple independent association signals at four risk loci, with haplotype analyses suggesting independent SNP effects at the 2q32 and 16p13 loci, but complex haplotype driven effects at the 3q25 and 6p21 loci. By imputing classical HLA alleles from this data set, four class II alleles independently contributing to the association signal from this region were identified. Imputation of genotypes at the non-HLA loci also provided additional associations, but none with stronger effects than the genotyped variants. An epistatic interaction between the IL12RB2 risk locus at 1p31and the IRF5 risk locus at 7q32 was also identified and suggests a complementary effect of these loci in predisposing to disease. These data expand the repertoire of genes with potential roles in PBC pathogenesis that need to be explored by follow-up biological studies. PMID:22936693

A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

2015-01-01

A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

Health risks associated with biogas. Assessment of health risks related to the injection of biogas into the natural gas network. Affset opinion. Collective expertise report. Final version

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

JAEG, Jean-Philippe; Bajeat, Philippe; Wenisch, Sandrine; Bellenfant, Gael; Godon, Jean-Jacques; Keck, Gerard; Lattes, Armand; Moletta-Denat, Marina; Naja, Ghinwa; Ramalho, Olivier; Zdanevitch, Isabelle; ALARY, Rene; RAMEL, Martine

2008-10-01

This publication reports a study which aimed at acquiring and analysing available bibliographical data regarding risks associated with the exposure to toxic compounds in relationship with the injection of biogas into the natural gas network, at characterising biogas composition and notably their content in potentially toxic compounds with respect to the currently distributed natural gas, at assessing health risks related to the exposure to toxic agents before and after combustion, also with respect to the currently distributed natural gas, and, based on this risk assessment, at determining biogas composition characteristics. Thus, after a presentation of the context, scope and modalities of this study, the report proposes an overview of various contextual aspects related to biogas (interest, production means, purification processes, valorisation, injection processes), the report discusses chemical risks related to biogas: bibliographical study, biogas chemical composition, chemical composition of biogas combustion residues. It also discusses microbiological risks. Several appendices are provided

Night shift work and breast cancer risk: what do the meta-analyses tell us?

Science.gov (United States)

Pahwa, Manisha; Labrèche, France; Demers, Paul A

2018-05-22

Objectives This paper aims to compare results, assess the quality, and discuss the implications of recently published meta-analyses of night shift work and breast cancer risk. Methods A comprehensive search was conducted for meta-analyses published from 2007-2017 that included at least one pooled effect size (ES) for breast cancer associated with any night shift work exposure metric and were accompanied by a systematic literature review. Pooled ES from each meta-analysis were ascertained with a focus on ever/never exposure associations. Assessments of heterogeneity and publication bias were also extracted. The AMSTAR 2 checklist was used to evaluate quality. Results Seven meta-analyses, published from 2013-2016, collectively included 30 cohort and case-control studies spanning 1996-2016. Five meta-analyses reported pooled ES for ever/never night shift work exposure; these ranged from 0.99 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95-1.03, N=10 cohort studies) to 1.40 (95% CI 1.13-1.73, N=9 high quality studies). Estimates for duration, frequency, and cumulative night shift work exposure were scant and mostly not statistically significant. Meta-analyses of cohort, Asian, and more fully-adjusted studies generally resulted in lower pooled ES than case-control, European, American, or minimally-adjusted studies. Most reported statistically significant between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was not evident in any of the meta-analyses. Only one meta-analysis was strong in critical quality domains. Conclusions Fairly consistent elevated pooled ES were found for ever/never night shift work and breast cancer risk, but results for other shift work exposure metrics were inconclusive. Future evaluations of shift work should incorporate high quality meta-analyses that better appraise individual study quality.

Work and diet-related risk factors of cardiovascular diseases: comparison of two occupational groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Hartung, Danielle; Stadeler, Martina; Grieshaber, Romano; Keller, Sylvia; Jahreis, Gerhard

2010-03-22

Although work related risk factors associated with Cardiovascular Diseases (CD) have been well researched, there is no detailed knowledge regarding disparate occupational groups each with a different risk exposition. Therefore, two occupational groups (chefs and office workers) were compared with a focus on nutritional and psychosocial factors. Two groups of subjects were tested for work and diet-related risks of CD (45 chefs and 48 office workers). The groups matched both for gender (male) and age (30 to 45 years). The study included a medical check-up, bioelectrical impedance analysis as well as an evaluation of questionnaires on health, nutritional behaviour and coping capacity. In addition, volunteers were required to compile a 7-day-dietary-record and collect their urine 24 h prior to their check-up. Blood samples drawn were analysed for glucose and lipid metabolism, homocysteine, vitamin B12, folic acid; C-reactive protein, uric acid, red blood cell fatty acids, plant sterols, antioxidative capacity and oxidative stress. On average, the chefs showed one risk factor more compared to the office workers. The most frequent risk factors in both groups included overweight/obesity (chef group [CG]: 62.2%; office group [OG]: 58.3%) and elevated TC (CG: 62.2%; OG: 43.8%]. Moreover, although the chefs often had higher CRP-concentrations (40.0%), more office workers suffered from hypertension (37.5%).Chefs showed significant higher concentrations of saturated fatty acids and oleic acid, whereas docosahexaenoic acid, Omega-6- and trans fatty acids were found more frequently in the red blood cell membranes of office workers. While there were no significant differences in analysed plant sterols between the two occupational groups, 7,8-dihydro-8-oxo-2'-deoxyguanosine was significantly increased in office workers.Concerning the work-related psychosocial factors, the chefs were characterised by a stronger subjective importance of work, a greater degree of professional

Childhood body mass index in relation to future risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cook, M B; Freedman, N D; Gamborg, M

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Middle-aged obese adults are at substantially elevated risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma. It is unclear whether this risk originates earlier in life. METHODS: We assessed associations between childhood body mass index (BMI) and height-measured annually between ages 7 and 13-with adult....... RESULTS: During 5.4 million person-years of follow-up, 254 (216 males) incident oesophageal adenocarcinomas occurred. At each examined age, cancer risk increased linearly per unit BMI z-score, although associations were only statistically significant for ages 9-13. The HR for the age of 13 years was 1.......31 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.51) per unit BMI z-score. Associations were similar in men and women and across birth cohorts. Childhood height was not related to cancer risk in men but was in women, although these analyses included just 38 female cases. HRs per unit height z-score at the age of 13 years were 1...

Testing for changes in spatial relative risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Hazelton, Martin L

2017-07-30

The spatial relative risk function is a useful tool for describing geographical variation in disease incidence. We consider the problem of comparing relative risk functions between two time periods, with the idea of detecting alterations in the spatial pattern of disease risk irrespective of whether there has been a change in the overall incidence rate. Using case-control datasets for each period, we use kernel smoothing methods to derive a test statistic based on the difference between the log-relative risk functions, which we term the log-relative risk ratio. For testing a null hypothesis of an unchanging spatial pattern of risk, we show how p-values can be computed using both randomization methods and an asymptotic normal approximation. The methodology is applied to data on campylobacteriosis from 2006 to 2013 in a region of New Zealand. We find clear evidence of a change in the spatial pattern of risk between those years, which can be explained in differences by response to a public health initiative between urban and rural communities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Substance-related traffic-risk behaviors among college students

Science.gov (United States)

Arria, Amelia M.; Caldeira, Kimberly M.; Vincent, Kathryn B.; Garnier-Dykstra, Laura M.; O’Grady, Kevin E.

2011-01-01

Aims Drunk driving is a major public health concern, but drugged driving has received little attention. This study examines drugged driving and riding with a drugged driver in a college student sample, in terms of prevalence, age-related trends, race/sex differences, overlap with drunk driving, and risk for alcohol and marijuana dependence. Methods Students (N=1194) ages 19 to 22 were interviewed annually for three years about past-year frequency of drugged driving, riding with a drugged/drunk driver, drunk driving, access to a car, and alcohol/drug dependence. Annual follow-up rates were excellent (88% to 91%). Repeated measures analyses were conducted using generalized estimating equations (GEE). Results One in six (17%wt) 19-year-olds with access to a car drove drugged in the past year; prevalence remained stable through age 22. Drugged driving was more prevalent among males (pdrunk (ranges between 47% and 60%). Both drugged and drunk driving were independently associated with increased risk for alcohol dependence, holding constant age, sex, and race. Drunk driving did not add to the risk for marijuana dependence in the context of drugged driving. Conclusions The prevalence of drugged driving is similar to drunk driving among college students. Both are strongly associated with underlying alcohol and drug dependence. Prevention and treatment implications are discussed. PMID:21601379

A meta-analysis of risk factors for combat-related PTSD among military personnel and veterans.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen Xue

Full Text Available Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD, a complex and chronic disorder caused by exposure to a traumatic event, is a common psychological result of current military operations. It causes substantial distress and interferes with personal and social functioning. Consequently, identifying the risk factors that make military personnel and veterans more likely to experience PTSD is of academic, clinical, and social importance. Four electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and PsycINFO were used to search for observational studies (cross-sectional, retrospective, and cohort studies about PTSD after deployment to combat areas. The literature search, study selection, and data extraction were conducted by two of the authors independently. Thirty-two articles were included in this study. Summary estimates were obtained using random-effects models. Subgroup analyses, sensitivity analyses, and publication bias tests were performed. The prevalence of combat-related PTSD ranged from 1.09% to 34.84%. A total of 18 significant predictors of PTSD among military personnel and veterans were found. Risk factors stemming from before the trauma include female gender, ethnic minority status, low education, non-officer ranks, army service, combat specialization, high numbers of deployments, longer cumulative length of deployments, more adverse life events, prior trauma exposure, and prior psychological problems. Various aspects of the trauma period also constituted risk factors. These include increased combat exposure, discharging a weapon, witnessing someone being wounded or killed, severe trauma, and deployment-related stressors. Lastly, lack of post-deployment support during the post-trauma period also increased the risk of PTSD. The current analysis provides evidence of risk factors for combat-related PTSD in military personnel and veterans. More research is needed to determine how these variables interact and how to best protect against susceptibility

A Meta-Analysis of Risk Factors for Combat-Related PTSD among Military Personnel and Veterans

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yuan; Kang, Peng; Wang, Meng; Zhang, Lulu

2015-01-01

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), a complex and chronic disorder caused by exposure to a traumatic event, is a common psychological result of current military operations. It causes substantial distress and interferes with personal and social functioning. Consequently, identifying the risk factors that make military personnel and veterans more likely to experience PTSD is of academic, clinical, and social importance. Four electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and PsycINFO) were used to search for observational studies (cross-sectional, retrospective, and cohort studies) about PTSD after deployment to combat areas. The literature search, study selection, and data extraction were conducted by two of the authors independently. Thirty-two articles were included in this study. Summary estimates were obtained using random-effects models. Subgroup analyses, sensitivity analyses, and publication bias tests were performed. The prevalence of combat-related PTSD ranged from 1.09% to 34.84%. A total of 18 significant predictors of PTSD among military personnel and veterans were found. Risk factors stemming from before the trauma include female gender, ethnic minority status, low education, non-officer ranks, army service, combat specialization, high numbers of deployments, longer cumulative length of deployments, more adverse life events, prior trauma exposure, and prior psychological problems. Various aspects of the trauma period also constituted risk factors. These include increased combat exposure, discharging a weapon, witnessing someone being wounded or killed, severe trauma, and deployment-related stressors. Lastly, lack of post-deployment support during the post-trauma period also increased the risk of PTSD. The current analysis provides evidence of risk factors for combat-related PTSD in military personnel and veterans. More research is needed to determine how these variables interact and how to best protect against susceptibility to PTSD. PMID

Apparently conclusive meta-analyses may be inconclusive--Trial sequential analysis adjustment of random error risk due to repetitive testing of accumulating data in apparently conclusive neonatal meta-analyses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brok, Jesper; Thorlund, Kristian; Wetterslev, Jørn

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: Random error may cause misleading evidence in meta-analyses. The required number of participants in a meta-analysis (i.e. information size) should be at least as large as an adequately powered single trial. Trial sequential analysis (TSA) may reduce risk of random errors due to repeti......BACKGROUND: Random error may cause misleading evidence in meta-analyses. The required number of participants in a meta-analysis (i.e. information size) should be at least as large as an adequately powered single trial. Trial sequential analysis (TSA) may reduce risk of random errors due...

Prenominal and postnominal reduced relative clauses: arguments against unitary analyses

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Petra Sleeman

2007-01-01

Full Text Available These last years, several analyses have been proposed in which prenominal and postnominal reduced relatives are merged in the same position. Kayne (1994 claims that both types of reduced relative clauses are the complement of the determiner. More recently, Cinque (2005 has proposed that both types are merged in the functional projections of the noun, at the left edge of the modifier system. In this paper, I argue against a unitary analysis of prenominal and postnominal participial reduced relatives.

Dose-related beneficial and harmful effects of gabapentin in postoperative pain management – post hoc analyses from a systematic review with meta-analyses and trial sequential analyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabritius ML

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Maria Louise Fabritius,1 Jørn Wetterslev,2 Ole Mathiesen,3 Jørgen B Dahl1 1Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, Bispebjerg and Frederiksberg Hospitals, Copenhagen, Denmark; 2Copenhagen Trial Unit, Centre for Clinical Intervention Research, Copenhagen University Hospital, Copenhagen, Denmark; 3Department of Anaesthesiology, Zealand University Hospital, Køge, Denmark Background: During the last 15 years, gabapentin has become an established component of postoperative pain treatment. Gabapentin has been employed in a wide range of doses, but little is known about the optimal dose, providing the best balance between benefit and harm. This systematic review with meta-analyses aimed to explore the beneficial and harmful effects of various doses of gabapentin administered to surgical patients.Materials and methods: Data in this paper were derived from an original review, and the subgroup analyses were predefined in an International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews published protocol: PROSPERO (ID: CRD42013006538. The methods followed Cochrane guidelines. The Cochrane Library’s CENTRAL, PubMed, EMBASE, Science Citation Index Expanded, Google Scholar, and FDA database were searched for relevant trials. Randomized clinical trials comparing gabapentin versus placebo were included. Four different dose intervals were investigated: 0–350, 351–700, 701–1050, and >1050 mg. Primary co-outcomes were 24-hour morphine consumption and serious adverse events (SAEs, with emphasis put on trials with low risk of bias. Results: One hundred and twenty-two randomized clinical trials, with 8466 patients, were included. Sixteen were overall low risk of bias. No consistent increase in morphine-sparing effect was observed with increasing doses of gabapentin from the trials with low risk of bias. Analyzing all trials, the smallest and the highest dose subgroups demonstrated numerically the most prominent reduction in morphine consumption

The role of religiosity, social support, and stress-related growth in protecting against HIV risk among transgender women.

Science.gov (United States)

Golub, Sarit A; Walker, Ja'nina J; Longmire-Avital, Buffie; Bimbi, David S; Parsons, Jeffrey T

2010-11-01

Transgender women completed questionnaires of religiosity, social support, stigma, stress-related growth, and sexual risk behavior. In a multivariate model, both social support and religious stress-related growth were significant negative predictors of unprotected anal sex, but religious behaviors and beliefs emerged as a significant positive predictor. The interaction between religious behaviors and beliefs and social support was also significant, and post-hoc analyses indicated that high-risk sex was least likely among individuals with high-levels of social support but low levels of religious behaviors and beliefs. These data have important implications for understanding factors that might protect against HIV risk for transgender women.

Bounding the conservatism in flaw-related variables for pressure vessel integrity analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foulds, J.R.; Kennedy, E.L.

1993-01-01

The fracture mechanics-based integrity analysis of a pressure vessel, whether performed deterministically or probabilistically, requires use of one or more flaw-related input variables, such as flaw size, number of flaws, flaw location, and flaw type. The specific values of these variables are generally selected with the intent to ensure conservative predictions of vessel integrity. These selected values, however, are largely independent of vessel-specific inspection results, or are, at best, deduced by ''conservative'' interpretation of vessel-specific inspection results without adequate consideration of the pertinent inspection system performance (reliability). In either case, the conservatism associated with the flaw-related variables chosen for analysis remains examination (NDE) technology and the recently formulated ASME Code procedures for qualifying NDE system capability and performance (as applied to selected nuclear power plant components) now provides a systematic means of bounding the conservatism in flaw-related input variables for pressure vessel integrity analyses. This is essentially achieved by establishing probabilistic (risk)-based limits on the assigned variable values, dependent upon the vessel inspection results and on the inspection system unreliability. Described herein is this probabilistic method and its potential application to: (i) defining a vessel-specific ''reference'' flaw for calculating pressure-temperature limit curves in the deterministic evaluation of pressurized water reactor (PWR) reactor vessels, and (ii) limiting the flaw distribution input to a PWR reactor vessel-specific, probabilistic integrity analysis for pressurized thermal shock loads

Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk" | Durrheim | South African ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

South African Family Practice. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 45, No 8 (2003) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk". DN Durrheim ...

Relative Risk Appraisal, the September 11 Attacks, and Terrorism-Related Fears

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Randall D.; Bryant, Richard A.; Amsel, Lawrence; Suh, Eun Jung; Cook, Joan M.; Neria, Yuval

2013-01-01

There are now replicated findings that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms related to the September 11, 2001, attacks occurred in large numbers of persons who did not fit the traditional definition of exposure to a traumatic event. These data are not explained by traditional epidemiologic “bull’s eye” disaster models, which assume the psychological effects are narrowly, geographically circumscribed, or by existing models of PTSD onset. In this article, the authors develop a researchable model to explain these and other terrorism-related phenomena by synthesizing research and concepts from the cognitive science, risk appraisal, traumatic stress, and anxiety disorders literatures. They propose the new term relative risk appraisal to capture the psychological function that is the missing link between the event and subjective response in these and other terrorism-related studies to date. Relative risk appraisal highlights the core notion from cognitive science that human perception is an active, multidimensional process, such that for unpredictable societal threats, proximity to the event is only one of several factors that influence behavioral responses. Addressing distortions in relative risk appraisal effectively could reduce individual and societal vulnerability to a wide range of adverse economic and ethnopolitical consequences to terrorist attacks. The authors present ways in which these concepts and related techniques can be helpful in treating persons with September 11– or terrorism-related distress or psychopathology. PMID:17516775

ROC generated thresholds for field-assessed aerobic fitness related to body size and cardiometabolic risk in schoolchildren.

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Lynne M Boddy

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: 1. to investigate whether 20 m multi-stage shuttle run performance (20mSRT, an indirect measure of aerobic fitness, could discriminate between healthy and overweight status in 9-10.9 yr old schoolchildren using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC analysis; 2. Investigate if cardiometabolic risk differed by aerobic fitness group by applying the ROC cut point to a second, cross-sectional cohort. DESIGN: Analysis of cross-sectional data. PARTICIPANTS: 16,619 9-10.9 year old participants from SportsLinx project and 300 11-13.9 year old participants from the Welsh Schools Health and Fitness Study. OUTCOME MEASURES: SportsLinx; 20mSRT, body mass index (BMI, waist circumference, subscapular and superilliac skinfold thicknesses. Welsh Schools Health and Fitness Study; 20mSRT performance, waist circumference, and clustered cardiometabolic risk. ANALYSES: Three ROC curve analyses were completed, each using 20mSRT performance with ROC curve 1 related to BMI, curve 2 was related to waist circumference and 3 was related to skinfolds (estimated % body fat. These were repeated for both girls and boys. The mean of the three aerobic fitness thresholds was retained for analysis. The thresholds were subsequently applied to clustered cardiometabolic risk data from the Welsh Schools study to assess whether risk differed by aerobic fitness group. RESULTS: The diagnostic accuracy of the ROC generated thresholds was higher than would be expected by chance (all models AUC >0.7. The mean thresholds were 33 and 25 shuttles for boys and girls respectively. Participants classified as 'fit' had significantly lower cardiometabolic risk scores in comparison to those classed as unfit (p<0.001. CONCLUSION: The use of the ROC generated cut points by health professionals, teachers and coaches may provide the opportunity to apply population level 'risk identification and stratification' processes and plan for "at-risk" children to be referred onto intervention

Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

2000-01-01

Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

Labour Market Flexibility between Risk and Opportunity for Gender Equality Analyses of Self-employment, Part-time Work, and Job Autonomy

OpenAIRE

König, Stefanie

2016-01-01

The dissertation “Labour Market Flexibility between Risk and Opportunity for Gender Equality – Analyses of Self-employment, Part-time Work, and Job Autonomy” addresses the main research question: Is flexibility the key to a less gendered labour market, or does it rather foster more traditional roles and gender inequality? In four empirical studies, different aspects in life were investigated in order to gain a holistic understanding of gender inequalities related to flexibility at work: the d...

The importance of probabilistic evaluations in connection with risk analyses according to technical safety laws

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathiak, E.

1984-01-01

The nuclear energy sector exemplifies the essential importance to be attached to the practical application of probabilistic evaluations (e.g. probabilistic reliability analyses) in connection with the legal risk assessment of technical systems and installations. The study is making use of a triad risk analysis and tries to reconcile the natural science and legal points of view. Without changing the definitions of 'risk' and 'hazard' in the legal sense of their meaning the publication discusses their reconcilation with the laws of natural science, their interpretation and application in view of the latter. (HSCH) [de

Public relations in risk communication: risk pr. The importance of public relations for risk communication; Public Relations in der Risikokommunikation: Risiko-PR. Die Bedeutung von Public Relations fuer die Risikokommunikation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lehmann, K.

2001-07-01

Risks have become a central problem of our time, as is reflected in concepts like 'society at risk' and 'anti-technological attitude', in group protest against risks and against those who cause them, and last but not least in the critical attitude of the media. Against this background, organisations must needs enter the public discussion and be able to communicate professionally and convincingly in order to ensure their own success and further existence. The book describes the basic problems of risk research and risk communications and discusses inhowfar, and how, public relations strategies and instruments can help here. [German] Risiken werden verstaerkt zum Problem unserer Zeit. Das belegen nicht nur Begriffe wie 'Risikogesellschaft' und 'Technikfeindlichkeit', die in letzter Zeit an Bedeutung gewonnen haben, sondern auch und vor allem nachhaltige Proteste von engagierten Gruppierungen gegen Risiken und deren Verursacher oder auch die kritische Berichterstattung der Medien. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist es fuer Organisationen erforderlich, in die oeffentliche Auseinandersetzung um Risiken einzusteigen und hier professionell und ueberzeugend zu kommunizieren, um den Organisationserfolg und Organisationsbestand zu sichern. Die vorliegende Arbeit beschreibt die Grundprobleme der Risikoforschung und Risikokommunikation und diskutiert, ob und inwieweit Public Relations bei der Loesung dieser Probleme helfen koennen, da insbesondere Public Relations gezielt Strategien und Instrumente nutzen, um beispielsweise den Wissensstand der Oeffentlichkeit zu verbessern und den Dialog mit relevanten Teiloeffentlichkeiten zu foerdern. (orig.)

Health behavior and health-related quality of life in patients with a high risk of cardiovascular disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petek Davorina

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Health-related quality of life (HRQoL is measuring a patient’s experience of his health status and represents an outcome of medical interventions. Existing data proves that a healthy lifestyle is positively associated with HRQoL in all age groups. Patients with a high risk for cardiovascular disease typically led an unhealthy lifestyle combined with risk diseases. We aimed to analyse these characteristics and their reflection in HRQoL.

Explanatory risk factors in the relations between schizotypy and indicators of suicide risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Jahn, Danielle R; DeVylder, Jordan E; Hilimire, Matthew R

2016-04-30

Schizotypy has been linked to suicide risk, but it is not known whether established suicide-related risk factors mediate this relation. The aim of this study was to assess the mediating effects of depressive symptoms, social anxiety, self-esteem, and intimate disclosure in peer relationships in the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. This aim was tested in 590 young adults using a nonparametric bootstrapping procedure. After inclusion of the mediators, interpersonal schizotypy was no longer directly associated with either suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. Depression and self-esteem mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation. No variables mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and lifetime suicide attempts, and there were no significant direct relations when mediators were included. Schizotypy appears to be a distal risk factor for suicidal behavior; assessing depressive symptoms and self-esteem may provide more proximal information about suicide risk, and may be targets for mitigating suicide risk in individuals with schizotypy. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events

Science.gov (United States)

Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.

2013-01-01

This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.

Systematic Review of the Association between Dairy Product Consumption and Risk of Cardiovascular-Related Clinical Outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Drouin-Chartier, Jean-Philippe; Brassard, Didier; Tessier-Grenier, Maude; Côté, Julie Anne; Labonté, Marie-Ève; Desroches, Sophie; Couture, Patrick; Lamarche, Benoît

2016-11-01

The objective of this systematic review was to determine if dairy product consumption is detrimental, neutral, or beneficial to cardiovascular health and if the recommendation to consume reduced-fat as opposed to regular-fat dairy is evidence-based. A systematic review of meta-analyses of prospective population studies associating dairy consumption with cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, hypertension, metabolic syndrome (MetS), and type 2 diabetes (T2D) was conducted on the basis of the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) statement. Quality of evidence was rated by using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation scale. High-quality evidence supports favorable associations between total dairy intake and hypertension risk and between low-fat dairy and yogurt intake and the risk of T2D. Moderate-quality evidence suggests favorable associations between intakes of total dairy, low-fat dairy, cheese, and fermented dairy and the risk of stroke; intakes of low-fat dairy and milk and the risk of hypertension; total dairy and milk consumption and the risk of MetS; and total dairy and cheese and the risk of T2D. High- to moderate-quality evidence supports neutral associations between the consumption of total dairy, cheese, and yogurt and CVD risk; the consumption of any form of dairy, except for fermented, and CAD risk; the consumption of regular- and high-fat dairy, milk, and yogurt and stroke risk; the consumption of regular- and high-fat dairy, cheese, yogurt, and fermented dairy and hypertension risk; and the consumption of regular- and high-fat dairy, milk, and fermented dairy and T2D risk. Data from this systematic review indicate that the consumption of various forms of dairy products shows either favorable or neutral associations with cardiovascular-related clinical outcomes. The review also emphasizes that further research is urgently needed to compare the impact of

Using relational databases for improved sequence similarity searching and large-scale genomic analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Mackey, Aaron J; Pearson, William R

2004-10-01

Relational databases are designed to integrate diverse types of information and manage large sets of search results, greatly simplifying genome-scale analyses. Relational databases are essential for management and analysis of large-scale sequence analyses, and can also be used to improve the statistical significance of similarity searches by focusing on subsets of sequence libraries most likely to contain homologs. This unit describes using relational databases to improve the efficiency of sequence similarity searching and to demonstrate various large-scale genomic analyses of homology-related data. This unit describes the installation and use of a simple protein sequence database, seqdb_demo, which is used as a basis for the other protocols. These include basic use of the database to generate a novel sequence library subset, how to extend and use seqdb_demo for the storage of sequence similarity search results and making use of various kinds of stored search results to address aspects of comparative genomic analysis.

Sandia Transportation Technical Environmental Information Center and its application to transportation risk analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foley, J.T.; Davidson, C.A.; McClure, J.D.

1978-01-01

Purpose of this paper is to describe an applied research activity which is fundamental to the conduct of transportation analyses: the collection, analysis, storage, and retrieval of information on the intensities of technical environments. This paper describes the collection system which provides such a service to official researchers in transportation analysis and the applications of this information in the area of risk analysis

Relative and absolute risk in epidemiology and health physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldsmith, R.; Peterson, H.T. Jr.

1983-01-01

The health risk from ionizing radiation commonly is expressed in two forms: (1) the relative risk, which is the percentage increase in natural disease rate and (2) the absolute or attributable risk which represents the difference between the natural rate and the rate associated with the agent in question. Relative risk estimates for ionizing radiation generally are higher than those expressed as the absolute risk. This raises the question of which risk estimator is the most appropriate under different conditions. The absolute risk has generally been used for radiation risk assessment, although mathematical combinations such as the arithmetic or geometric mean of both the absolute and relative risks, have also been used. Combinations of the two risk estimators are not valid because the absolute and relative risk are not independent variables. Both human epidemiologic studies and animal experimental data can be found to illustrate the functional relationship between the natural cancer risk and the risk associated with radiation. This implies that the radiation risk estimate derived from one population may not be appropriate for predictions in another population, unless it is adjusted for the difference in the natural disease incidence between the two populations

Can Non-HLA Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms Help Stratify Risk in TrialNet Relatives at Risk for Type 1 Diabetes?

Science.gov (United States)

Steck, Andrea K; Xu, Ping; Geyer, Susan; Redondo, Maria J; Antinozzi, Peter; Wentworth, John M; Sosenko, Jay; Onengut-Gumuscu, Suna; Chen, Wei-Min; Rich, Stephen S; Pugliese, Alberto

2017-08-01

Genome-wide association studies identified >50 type 1 diabetes (T1D) associated non-human leukocyte antigens (non-HLA) loci. The purpose of this study was to assess the contribution of non-HLA single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to risk of disease progression. The TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study follows relatives of T1D patients for development of autoantibodies (Abs) and T1D. Using the Immunochip, we analyzed 53 diabetes-associated, non-HLA SNPs in 1016 Ab-positive, at-risk non-Hispanic white relatives. Effect of SNPs on the development of multiple Abs and T1D. Cox proportional analyses included all substantial non-HLA SNPs, HLA genotypes, relationship to proband, sex, age at initial screening, initial Ab type, and number. Factors involved in progression from single to multiple Abs included age at screening, relationship to proband, HLA genotypes, and rs3087243 (cytotoxic T lymphocyte antigen-4). Significant factors for diabetes progression included age at screening, Ab number, HLA genotypes, rs6476839 [GLIS family zinc finger 3 (GLIS3)], and rs3184504 [SH2B adaptor protein 3 (SH2B3)]. When glucose area under the curve (AUC) was included, factors involved in disease progression included glucose AUC, age at screening, Ab number, relationship to proband, HLA genotypes, rs6476839 (GLIS3), and rs7221109 (CCR7). In stratified analyses by age, glucose AUC, age at screening, sibling, HLA genotypes, rs6476839 (GLIS3), and rs4900384 (C14orf64) were significantly associated with progression to diabetes in participants <12 years old, whereas glucose AUC, sibling, rs3184504 (SH2B3), and rs4900384 (C14orf64) were significant in those ≥12. In conclusion, we identified five non-HLA SNPs associated with increased risk of progression from Ab positivity to disease that may improve risk stratification for prevention trials. Copyright © 2017 by the Endocrine Society

HIV-Related Stigma, Shame, and Avoidant Coping: Risk Factors for Internalizing Symptoms Among Youth Living with HIV?

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, David S; Hersh, Jill; Herres, Joanna; Foster, Jill

2016-08-01

Youth living with HIV (YLH) are at elevated risk of internalizing symptoms, although there is substantial individual variability in adjustment. We examined perceived HIV-related stigma, shame-proneness, and avoidant coping as risk factors of internalizing symptoms among YLH. Participants (N = 88; ages 12-24) completed self-report measures of these potential risk factors and three domains of internalizing symptoms (depressive, anxiety, and PTSD) during a regularly scheduled HIV clinic visit. Hierarchical regressions were conducted for each internalizing symptoms domain, examining the effects of age, gender, and maternal education (step 1), HIV-related stigma (step 2), shame- and guilt-proneness (step 3), and avoidant coping (step 4). HIV-related stigma, shame-proneness, and avoidant coping were each correlated with greater depressive, anxiety, and PTSD symptoms. Specificity was observed in that shame-proneness, but not guilt-proneness, was associated with greater internalizing symptoms. In multivariable analyses, HIV-related stigma and shame-proneness were each related to greater depressive and PTSD symptoms. Controlling for the effects of HIV-related stigma and shame-proneness, avoidant coping was associated with PTSD symptoms. The current findings highlight the potential importance of HIV-related stigma, shame, and avoidant coping on the adjustment of YLH, as interventions addressing these risk factors could lead to decreased internalizing symptoms among YLH.

Parametric neutronic analyses related to burnup credit cask design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parks, C.V.

1989-01-01

The consideration of spent fuel histories (burnup credit) in the design of spent fuel shipping casks will result in cost savings and public risk benefits in the overall fuel transportation system. The purpose of this paper is to describe the depletion and criticality analyses performed in conjunction with and supplemental to the referenced analysis. Specifically, the objectives are to indicate trends in spent fuel isotopic composition with burnup and decay time; provide spent fuel pin lattice values as a function of burnup, decay time, and initial enrichment; demonstrate the variation of k eff for infinite arrays of spent fuel assemblies separated by generic cask basket designs (borated and unborated) of varying thicknesses; and verify the potential cask reactivity margin available with burnup credit via analysis with generic cask models

Nutrition care-related practices and factors affecting nutritional intakes in hospital patients at risk of pressure ulcers.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, S; Chaboyer, W; Desbrow, B

2015-08-01

Malnutrition is common in hospitals and is a risk factor for pressure ulcers. Nutrition care practices relating to the identification and treatment of malnutrition have not been assessed in patients at risk of pressure ulcers. The present study describes nutrition care practices and factors affecting nutritional intakes in this patient group. The study was conducted in four wards at two hospitals in Queensland, Australia. Adult patients at risk of pressure ulcers as a result of restricted mobility were observed for 24 h to determine their daily oral intake and practices such as nutrition screening, documentation and intervention. Independent samples t-tests and chi-squared tests were used to analyse dietary intake and nutrition care-related data. Predictors of receiving a dietitian referral were identified using logistic regression analyses. Two hundred and forty-one patients participated in the present study. The observed nutritional screening rate was 59% (142 patients). Weight and height were documented in 71% and 34% of cases. Sixty-nine patients (29%) received a dietitian referral. Predictors of receiving a dietitian referral included lower body mass index and longer length of stay. On average, patients consumed 73% and 72% of the energy and protein provided, respectively. Between 22% and 38% of patients consumed meals. Nutrition care practices including malnutrition risk screening and documentation of nutritional parameters appear to be inadequate in patients at risk of pressure ulcers. A significant proportion of these patients eat inadequately at main meals, further increasing their risk of malnutrition and pressure ulcers. © 2014 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Cancer risk of anti-TNF-α at recommended doses in adult rheumatoid arthritis: a meta-analysis with intention to treat and per protocol analyses.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guillaume Moulis

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The risk of malignancies on TNF-α antagonists is controversial. The aim of this survey was to assess cancer risk on TNF-α antagonists in adult rheumatoid arthritis patients, including the five marketed drugs (infliximab, etanercept, adalimumab, golimumab and certolizumab used in line with the New Drug Application. Furthermore, the relative interest of modified intention to treat or per protocol analyses to assess such sparse events remains unknown. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data sources were MEDLINE, CENTRAL, ISI Web of Science, ACR and EULAR meeting abstracts, scientific evaluation of the drugs leading to their marketing approval, and clinicaltrials.gov, until 31 December 2012.We selected double-blind randomized controlled trials in adult rheumatoid arthritis patients, including at least one treatment arm in line with New Drug Application. We performed random effect meta-analysis, with modified intention to treat and per protocol analyses. Thirty-three trials were included. There was no excess risk of malignancies on anti-TNF-α administered in line with New Drug Application in the per protocol model (OR, 0.93 95%CI[0.59-1.44], as well as in the modified intention to treat model (OR, 1.27 95%CI[0.82-1.98]. There was a non-significant tendency for an excess non-melanoma skin cancer risk in both models (respectively, 1.37 [0.71-2.66] and 1.90 [0.98-3.67]. With fixed effect Peto model restricting to trials during at least 52 weeks, the overall cancer risk was respectively 1.60 [0.97-2.64] and 1.22 [0.72-2.08]. Whatever the model, modified intention to treat analysis led to higher estimations than per protocol analysis. The later may underestimate the treatment effect when assessing very sparse events and when many patients dropped out in placebo arms. In metaregression, there was no differential risk among the five drugs. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study did not find any evidence for an excess cancer risk on TNF

Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tarp Hansen, Anette; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

2017-01-01

The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Anette Tarp; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

2017-01-01

The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

Risk characterization of hospitalizations for mental illness and/or behavioral disorders with concurrent heat-related illness.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael T Schmeltz

Full Text Available Many studies have found significant associations between high ambient temperatures and increases in heat-related morbidity and mortality. Several studies have demonstrated that increases in heat-related hospitalizations are elevated among individuals with diagnosed mental illnesses and/or behavioral disorders (MBD. However, there are a limited number of studies regarding risk factors associated with specific mental illnesses that contribute, at least in part, to heat-related illnesses (HRI in the United States.To identify and characterize individual and environmental risk factors associated with MBD hospitalizations with a concurrent HRI diagnosis.This study uses hospitalization data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (2001-2010. Descriptive analyses of primary and secondary diagnoses of MBDs with an HRI were examined. Risk ratios (RR were calculated from multivariable models to identify risk factors for hospitalizations among patients with mental illnesses and/or behavioral disorders and HRI.Nondependent alcohol/drug abuse, dementia, and schizophrenia were among the disorders that were associated with increased frequency of HRI hospitalizations among MBD patients. Increased risk of MBD hospitalizations with HRI was observed for Males (RR, 3.06, African Americans (RR, 1.16, Native Americans (RR, 1.70, uninsured (RR, 1.92, and those 40 years and older, compared to MBD hospitalizations alone.Previous studies outside the U.S. have found that dementia and schizophrenia are significant risk factors for HRI hospitalizations. Our results suggest that hospitalizations among substance abusers may also be an important risk factor associated with heat morbidity. Improved understanding of these relative risks could help inform future public health strategies.

Cancer risks, risk-cost-benefit analyses, and the scientific method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

1995-01-01

Two main changes in risk analysis are increasingly beginning to influence the manner in which, in the perception of scientists, low-dose modeling of radiation carcinogenesis is supposed to be done. In the past, efforts to model radiation risks have been carried out under the banner of scientific endeavors. On closer inspection, however, it has become obvious that these efforts were not guided by the scientific method and that a change in approach is needed. We realize increasingly that risk analysis is not done in a vacuum and that any action taken due to the result of the analysis not only has a benefit in the form of a risk reduction but leads inevitably to an increase in cost and an increase in the risks of persons effecting the benefit. Thus, a risk-cost-benefit analysis should be done and show a clear-cut net benefit before a remedial action is taken

Long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent work-related impairment.

Science.gov (United States)

Scott-Marshall, Heather K; Tompa, Emile; Wang, Ying; Liao, Qing

2014-07-11

Recent estimates indicate that at least one in five activity-limiting injuries occurs at work. Of individuals who suffer these injuries approximately 10% experience some degree of functional impairment. We were interested in investigating long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent impairment from work injury and to examine whether work disability is a significant explanatory factor. We used a retrospective matched cohort methodology to examine differences in mortality rates between individuals with permanent impairment from a work injury and a group of non-injured controls over a 19-year period. We used a sample of impaired workers to investigate the impact of work disability on mortality risk using percentage of earnings recovery after injury as the key proxy measure. All analyses were stratified by sex. Permanent impairment from a work injury was predictive of premature mortality in both male and female claimants, though the risk was slightly higher among women. Work disability was a key explanatory factor in the rate of death among impaired workers, the effects being more pronounced in men. We also found that higher impairment level was associated with mortality in men but not in women. The study demonstrates the impact of permanent work-related impairment on longevity and identifies work disability as an important determinant of mortality risk. Given the disconnect between impairment ratings derived from standard diagnostic tools and labour-market activity after accident, more research is needed on the specific factors that contribute to work disability, particularly those related to psycho-social health and well-being.

Analyses in support of risk-informed natural gas vehicle maintenance facility codes and standards :

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ekoto, Isaac W.; Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Angela Christine; LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Horne, Douglas B.

2014-03-01

Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed gas fueled large-scale vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operation envelopes. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase I work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest. Finally, scenario analyses were performed using detailed simulations and modeling to estimate the overpressure hazards from HAZOP defined scenarios. The results from Phase I will be used to identify significant risk contributors at NGV maintenance facilities, and are expected to form the basis for follow-on quantitative risk analysis work to address specific code requirements and identify effective accident prevention and mitigation strategies.

Relative risk site evaluation for buildings 7740 and 7741 Fort Campbell, Kentucky

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Last, G.V.; Gilmore, T.J.; Bronson, F.J.

1998-01-01

Buildings 7740 and 7741 are a part of a former nuclear weapon`s storage and maintenance facility located in the southeastern portion of Fort Campbell, Kentucky. This underground tunnel complex was originally used as a classified storage area beginning in 1949 and continuing until 1969. Staff from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory recently completed a detailed Relative Risk Site Evaluation of the facility. This evaluation included (1) obtaining engineering drawings of the facility and associated structures, (2) conducting detailed radiological surveys, (3) air sampling, (4) sampling drainage systems, and (5) sampling the underground wastewater storage tank. Ten samples were submitted for laboratory analysis of radionuclides and priority pollutant metals, and two samples submitted for analysis of volatile organic compounds. No volatile organic contaminants were detected using field instruments or laboratory analyses. However, several radionuclides and metals were detected in water and/or soil/sediment samples collected from this facility. Of the radionuclides detected, only {sup 226}Ra may have come from facility operations; however, its concentration is at least one order of magnitude below the relative-risk comparison value. Several metals (arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, copper, mercury, lead, and antimony) were found to exceed the relative-risk comparison values for water, while only arsenic, cadmium, and lead were found to exceed the relative risk comparison values for soil. Of these constituents, it is believed that only arsenic, beryllium, mercury, and lead may have come from facility operations. Other significant hazards posed by the tunnel complex include radon exposure and potentially low oxygen concentrations (<19.5% in atmosphere) if the tunnel complex is not allowed to vent to the outside air. Asbestos-wrapped pipes, lead-based paint, rat poison, and possibly a selenium rectifier are also present within the tunnel complex.

Potential mediating pathways through which sports participation relates to reduced risk of suicidal ideation.

Science.gov (United States)

Taliaferro, Lindsay A; Rienzo, Barbara A; Miller, M David; Pigg, R Morgan; Dodd, Virginia J

2010-09-01

Suicide ranks as the third leading cause of death for American youth. Researchers examining sport participation and suicidal behavior have regularly found inverse relationships. This study represents the first effort to test a model depicting potential mechanisms through which sport participation relates to reduced risk of suicidal ideation. The participants were 450 undergraduate students. Measures assessed participants' involvement in university-run sports and other activities; frequency of physical activity; and perceived social support, self-esteem, depression, hopelessness, loneliness, and suicidal ideation. Regression analyses confirmed a path model and tested for mediation effects. Vigorous activity mediated relationships between sport participation and self-esteem and depression; and self-esteem and depression mediated the relationship between vigorous activity and suicidal ideation. Social support mediated relationships between sport participation and depression, hopelessness, and loneliness; and each of these risk factors partially mediated the relationship between social support and suicidal ideation. However no variable fully mediated the relationship between sport participation and suicidal ideation. This study provides a foundation for research designed to examine pathways through which sport participation relates to reduced risk of suicidal behavior.

Association of vitamin C with the risk of age-related cataract: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Lin; Liang, Ge; Cai, Chunmei; Lv, Jin

2016-05-01

Whether vitamin C is a protective factor for age-related cataract remains unclear. Thus, we conducted a meta-analysis to summarize the evidence from epidemiological studies of vitamin C and the risk of age-related cataract. Pertinent studies were identified by searching in PubMed and in Webscience. The random effect model was used to combine the results. Meta-regression and subgroups analyses were used to explore potential sources of between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was estimated using Egger's regression asymmetry test. Finally, 15 articles with 20 studies for vitamin C intake and eight articles with 10 studies for serum ascorbate were included in this meta-analysis. The relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval of cataract for the highest versus the lowest category of vitamin C intake was 0.814 (0.707-0.938), and the associations were significant in America and Asia. Significant association of cataract risk with highest versus the lowest category of serum ascorbate was found in general [0.704 (0.564-0.879)]. Inverse associations were also found between serum ascorbate and nuclear cataract and posterior subcapsular cataract. Higher vitamin C intake and serum ascorbate might be inversely associated with risk of cataract. Vitamin C intake should be advocated for the primary prevention of cataract. © 2015 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Clinical risk factors for age-related macular degeneration: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evans Christopher

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Age-related macular degeneration (AMD is the leading cause of blindness in Western countries. Numerous risk factors have been reported but the evidence and strength of association is variable. We aimed to identify those risk factors with strong levels of evidence which could be easily assessed by physicians or ophthalmologists to implement preventive interventions or address current behaviours. Methods A systematic review identified 18 prospective and cross-sectional studies and 6 case control studies involving 113,780 persons with 17,236 cases of late AMD that included an estimate of the association between late AMD and at least one of 16 pre-selected risk factors. Fixed-effects meta-analyses were conducted for each factor to combine odds ratio (OR and/or relative risk (RR outcomes across studies by study design. Overall raw point estimates of each risk factor and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated. Results Increasing age, current cigarette smoking, previous cataract surgery, and a family history of AMD showed strong and consistent associations with late AMD. Risk factors with moderate and consistent associations were higher body mass index, history of cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and higher plasma fibrinogen. Risk factors with weaker and inconsistent associations were gender, ethnicity, diabetes, iris colour, history of cerebrovascular disease, and serum total and HDL cholesterol and triglyceride levels. Conclusions Smoking, previous cataract surgery and a family history of AMD are consistent risk factors for AMD. Cardiovascular risk factors are also associated with AMD. Knowledge of these risk factors that may be easily assessed by physicians and general ophthalmologists may assist in identification and appropriate referral of persons at risk of AMD.

Systematic Review of the Association between Dairy Product Consumption and Risk of Cardiovascular-Related Clinical Outcomes123

Science.gov (United States)

Drouin-Chartier, Jean-Philippe; Brassard, Didier; Tessier-Grenier, Maude; Côté, Julie Anne; Labonté, Marie-Ève; Desroches, Sophie; Couture, Patrick; Lamarche, Benoît

2016-01-01

The objective of this systematic review was to determine if dairy product consumption is detrimental, neutral, or beneficial to cardiovascular health and if the recommendation to consume reduced-fat as opposed to regular-fat dairy is evidence-based. A systematic review of meta-analyses of prospective population studies associating dairy consumption with cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, hypertension, metabolic syndrome (MetS), and type 2 diabetes (T2D) was conducted on the basis of the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) statement. Quality of evidence was rated by using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation scale. High-quality evidence supports favorable associations between total dairy intake and hypertension risk and between low-fat dairy and yogurt intake and the risk of T2D. Moderate-quality evidence suggests favorable associations between intakes of total dairy, low-fat dairy, cheese, and fermented dairy and the risk of stroke; intakes of low-fat dairy and milk and the risk of hypertension; total dairy and milk consumption and the risk of MetS; and total dairy and cheese and the risk of T2D. High- to moderate-quality evidence supports neutral associations between the consumption of total dairy, cheese, and yogurt and CVD risk; the consumption of any form of dairy, except for fermented, and CAD risk; the consumption of regular- and high-fat dairy, milk, and yogurt and stroke risk; the consumption of regular- and high-fat dairy, cheese, yogurt, and fermented dairy and hypertension risk; and the consumption of regular- and high-fat dairy, milk, and fermented dairy and T2D risk. Data from this systematic review indicate that the consumption of various forms of dairy products shows either favorable or neutral associations with cardiovascular-related clinical outcomes. The review also emphasizes that further research is urgently needed to compare the impact of

The Relationship between Musculoskeletal Symptoms and Work-related Risk Factors in Hotel Workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jin Woo; Lee, Ju Jong; Mun, Hyeon Je; Lee, Kyung-Jae; Kim, Joo Ja

2013-10-11

To identify work-related musculoskeletal symptoms and any associated work-related risk factors, focusing on structural labor factors among hotel workers. A total of 1,016 hotel workers (620 men and 396 women) were analyzed. The questionnaire surveyed participants' socio-demographics, health-related behaviors, job-related factors, and work-related musculoskeletal symptoms. Work-related musculoskeletal symptoms were assessed using the Nordic musculoskeletal questionnaire. All analyses were stratified by gender, and multiple logistic regression modeling was used to determine associations between work-related musculoskeletal symptoms and work-related risk factors. The risk of developing work-related musculoskeletal symptoms was 1.9 times higher among male workers in the kitchen department than males in the room department (OR = 1.92, 95% CI = 1.03-3.79), and 2.5 times higher among male workers with lower sleep satisfaction than those with higher sleep satisfaction (OR = 2.52, 95% CI = 1.57-4.04). All of the aforementioned cases demonstrated a statistically significant association with work-related musculoskeletal symptoms. Moreover, the risk of developing work-related musculoskeletal symptoms was 3.3 times higher among female workers aged between 30 and 34 than those aged 24 or younger (OR = 3.32, 95% CI = 1.56-7.04); 0.3 times higher among females in the back office department than those in the room department (OR = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.12-0.91); 1.6 times higher among females on shift schedules than those who were not (OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.02-2.59); 1.8 times higher among females who performed more intensive work than those who performed less intensive work (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.17-3.02), and; 2.1 times higher among females with lower sleep satisfaction than those with higher sleep satisfaction (OR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.34-3.50). All of the aforementioned cases also displayed a statistically significant association with work-related musculoskeletal symptoms. This study

Interventions to prevent and manage psychosocial risks and work-related stress

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klein Hesselink, J.; Jain, A.

2014-01-01

Prevention is the cornerstone of the European approach to managing occupational safety and health. Prevention means anticipating and analysing the various aspects of work to identify short and long term risks, and then taking action to eliminate or mitigate those risks; that is identifying and

Assessing the risk of work-related international travel.

Science.gov (United States)

Druckman, Myles; Harber, Philip; Liu, Yihang; Quigley, Robert L

2014-11-01

To identify factors affecting the likelihood of requiring medical services during international business trips. Data from more than 800,000 international trips and medical assistance cases provided to 48 multinational corporations in 2009. Travel destination countries were grouped into four a priori risk-related categories. Travel to "low" medical risk countries in aggregate accounted for more hospitalizations and medical evacuations than travel to "high" medical risk countries. Nevertheless, the risk per trip was much higher for travel to higher medical risk countries. Corporations with employees on international travel should allocate sufficient resources to manage and ideally prevent medical issues during business travel. Travel medicine must focus on more than infectious diseases, and programs are necessary for both high- and low-risk regions. Improved understanding of travel-related needs determines resource allocation and risk mitigation efforts.

Estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss among rheumatoid arthritis patients undergoing tofacitinib treatment: post hoc analyses of two randomized clinical trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Rendas-Baum, Regina; Kosinski, Mark; Singh, Amitabh; Mebus, Charles A; Wilkinson, Bethany E; Wallenstein, Gene V

2017-08-01

RA causes high disability levels and reduces health-related quality of life, triggering increased costs and risk of unemployment. Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of RA. These post hoc analyses of phase 3 data aimed to assess monthly medical expenditure (MME) and risk of job loss for tofacitinib treatment vs placebo. Data analysed were from two randomized phase 3 studies of RA patients (n = 1115) with inadequate response to MTX or TNF inhibitors (TNFi) receiving tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg twice daily, adalimumab (one study only) or placebo, in combination with MTX. Short Form 36 version 2 Health Survey physical and mental component summary scores were translated into predicted MME via an algorithm and concurrent inability to work and job loss risks at 6, 12 and 24 months, using Medical Outcomes Study data. MME reduction by month 3 was $100 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated TNFi inadequate responders (P 20 and 6% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾16%, and risk of future job loss decreased ∼20% (P tofacitinib- than placebo-treated MTX inadequate responders (P tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾31% and risk of future job loss decreased ⩾25% (P Tofacitinib treatment had a positive impact on estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss for RA patients with inadequate response to MTX or TNFi. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.

People at High Risk of Developing Flu-Related Complications

Science.gov (United States)

... Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other People at High Risk of Developing Flu–Related Complications ... related complications if they get sick with influenza. People at High Risk for Developing Flu-Related Complications ...

Contributions of polygenic risk for obesity to PTSD-related metabolic syndrome and cortical thickness.

Science.gov (United States)

Wolf, Erika J; Miller, Danielle R; Logue, Mark W; Sumner, Jennifer; Stoop, Tawni B; Leritz, Elizabeth C; Hayes, Jasmeet P; Stone, Annjanette; Schichman, Steven A; McGlinchey, Regina E; Milberg, William P; Miller, Mark W

2017-10-01

Research suggests that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and that PTSD-associated MetS is related to decreased cortical thickness. However, the role of genetic factors in these associations is unclear. This study evaluated contributions of polygenic obesity risk and PTSD to MetS and of MetS and polygenic obesity risk to cortical thickness. 196 white, non-Hispanic veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan underwent clinical diagnostic interviews, physiological assessments, and genome-wide genotyping; 168 also completed magnetic resonance imaging scans. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for obesity were calculated from results of a prior genome-wide association study (Speliotes et al., 2010) and PTSD and MetS severity factor scores were obtained. Obesity PRS (β=0.15, p=0.009) and PTSD (β=0.17, p=0.005) predicted MetS and interacted such that the association between PTSD and MetS was stronger in individuals with greater polygenic obesity risk (β=0.13, p=0.02). Whole-brain vertex-wise analyses suggested that obesity PRS interacted with MetS to predict decreased cortical thickness in left rostral middle frontal gyrus (β=-0.40, pobesity genetic risk increases stress-related metabolic pathology, and compounds the ill health effects of MetS on the brain. Genetic proclivity towards MetS should be considered in PTSD patients when prescribing psychotropic medications with adverse metabolic profiles. Results are consistent with a growing literature suggestive of PTSD-related accelerated aging. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Coastal and river flood risk analyses for guiding economically optimal flood adaptation policies: a country-scale study for Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; van Roomen, Vincent; Connor, Harry; Zavala-Hidalgo, Jorge; Eilander, Dirk M.; Ward, Philip J.

2018-06-01

Many countries around the world face increasing impacts from flooding due to socio-economic development in flood-prone areas, which may be enhanced in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change. With increasing flood risk, it is becoming more important to be able to assess the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies. To guide the design of such strategies, policy makers need tools to prioritize where adaptation is needed and how much adaptation funds are required. In this country-scale study, we show how flood risk analyses can be used in cost-benefit analyses to prioritize investments in flood adaptation strategies in Mexico under future climate scenarios. Moreover, given the often limited availability of detailed local data for such analyses, we show how state-of-the-art global data and flood risk assessment models can be applied for a detailed assessment of optimal flood-protection strategies. Our results show that especially states along the Gulf of Mexico have considerable economic benefits from investments in adaptation that limit risks from both river and coastal floods, and that increased flood-protection standards are economically beneficial for many Mexican states. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to modelling uncertainties, the transferability of our modelling approach and policy implications. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Lung cancer risk models from experimental animals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, E.S.

1988-03-01

The objective of this paper is to present analyses of data based on methods that adequately account for time-related factors and competiting risks, and that yield results that are expressed in a form comparable to results obtained from recent analyses of epidemiological studies of humans exposed to radon and radon daughters. These epidemiological analyses have modeled the hazard, or age-specific death rates, as a function of factors such as dose and dose rate, time from exposure, and time from cessation of exposure. The starting point for many of the analyses of human data has been the constant relative risk modeling which the age-specific death rates are assumed to be a function of cumulative dose, and the risks due to exposure are assumed to be proportional to the age-specific baseline death rates. However, departures from this initial model, such as dependence of risks on age at risk and/or time from exposure, have been investigated. These analyses have frequently been based on a non-parametric model that requires minimal assumptions regarding the baseline risks and their dependence on age

Meta-analyses: does long-term PPI use increase the risk of gastric premalignant lesions?

Science.gov (United States)

Eslami, Layli; Nasseri-Moghaddam, Siavosh

2013-08-01

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are the most effective agents available for reducing acid secretion. They are used for medical treatment of various acid-related disorders. PPIs are used extensively and for extended periods of time in gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). A troublesome issue regarding maintenance therapy has been the propensity of PPI-treated patients to develop chronic atrophic gastritis while on therapy that could theoretically lead to an increased incidence of gastric cancer. In addition, animal studies have raised concern for development of enterochromaffin-like cell hyperplasia and carcinoid tumors in the stomachs of mice receiving high dose PPIs. Current literature does not provide a clear-cut conclusion on the subject and the reports are sometimes contradictory. Therefore, this study is a systematic review of the available literature to address the safety of long-term PPI use and its relation to the development of malignant/premalignant gastric lesions. A literature search of biomedical databases was performed. The reference lists of retrieved articles were reviewed to further identify relevant trials. We hand-searched the abstracts of the American Digestive Disease Week (DDW) and the United European Gastroenterology Week (UEGW) from 1995 to 2013. Only randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that used PPIs as the primary treatment for at least six month versus no treatment, placebo, antacid or anti-reflux surgery (ARS) were included. Two reviewers independently extracted the data. Discrepancies in the interpretation were resolved by consensus. All analyses of outcomes were based on the intention-to-treat principle. We performed statistical analysis using Review Manager software. The effect measure of choice was relative risk (RR) for dichotomous data. Six RCTs with a total of 785 patients met the inclusion criteria. Two multicenter RCTs compared Esomeprazole with placebo. One RCT compared omeprazole with ARS. Two RCTs compared omeprazole with

Cognitive patterns in relation to biomarkers of cerebrovascular disease and vascular risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Miralbell, Júlia; López-Cancio, Elena; López-Oloriz, Jorge; Arenillas, Juan Francisco; Barrios, Maite; Soriano-Raya, Juan José; Galán, Amparo; Cáceres, Cynthia; Alzamora, Maite; Pera, Guillem; Toran, Pere; Dávalos, Antoni; Mataró, Maria

2013-01-01

Risk factors for vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) are the same as traditional risk factors for cerebrovascular disease (CVD). Early identification of subjects at higher risk of VCI is important for the development of effective preventive strategies. In addition to traditional vascular risk factors (VRF), circulating biomarkers have emerged as potential tools for early diagnoses, as they could provide in vivo measures of the underlying pathophysiology. While VRF have been consistently linked to a VCI profile (i.e., deficits in executive functions and processing speed), the cognitive correlates of CVD biomarkers remain unclear. In this population-based study, the aim was to study and compare cognitive patterns in relation to VRF and circulating biomarkers of CVD. The Barcelona-AsIA Neuropsychology Study included 747 subjects older than 50, without a prior history of stroke or coronary disease and with a moderate to high vascular risk (mean age, 66 years; 34.1% women). Three cognitive domains were derived from factoral analysis: visuospatial skills/speed, verbal memory and verbal fluency. Multiple linear regression was used to assess relationships between cognitive performance (multiple domains) and a panel of circulating biomarkers, including indicators of inflammation, C-reactive protein (CRP) and resistin, endothelial dysfunction, asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA), thrombosis, plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1), as well as traditional VRF, metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance (homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance index). Analyses were adjusted for age, gender, years of education and depressive symptoms. Traditional VRF were related to lower performance in verbal fluency, insulin resistance accounted for lower performance in visuospatial skills/speed and the metabolic syndrome predicted lower performance in both cognitive domains. From the biomarkers of CVD, CRP was negatively related to verbal fluency performance and increasing ADMA

Evaluating prevalence and risk factors of building-related symptoms among office workers: Seasonal characteristics of symptoms and psychosocial and physical environmental factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Azuma, Kenichi; Ikeda, Koichi; Kagi, Naoki; Yanagi, U; Osawa, Haruki

2017-04-12

Psychosocial and environmental factors at the workplace play a significant role in building-related symptoms (BRSs). Environmental factors change during summer cooling and winter heating using air-conditioning systems. Thus, significant risk factors in each season need to be clarified. A nationwide cross-sectional study was conducted during summer in Japan and seasonal differences between summer and winter were evaluated. Self-administered questionnaires were distributed to 489 offices. Possible risk factors for BRSs associated with the work environment, indoor air quality, and job stressors were examined by multiple regression analyses. Among people having at least one BRS, the prevalence of BRSs in summer (27.8%) was slightly higher than that in winter (24.9%). High prevalence was observed for eye and nasal symptoms related to dryness and general symptoms related to psychological distress in both seasons. Analyses revealed that dryness of air was an important and significant risk factor associated with BRSs, and job stressors were significantly associated with general symptoms in both seasons. Conversely, humidity was a significant risk factor of general symptoms in summer (odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.43). Carpeting, recently painted walls, and unpleasant chemical odors in summer and noise, dust and dirt, and unpleasant odors such as body or food odors in both seasons were significant risk factors for BRSs. Improvements in the physical environmental qualities in an office throughout the year are important along with the reduction in psychological distress related to work.

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Trine Madsen

2017-03-01

Full Text Available People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

Gene Ontology and KEGG Enrichment Analyses of Genes Related to Age-Related Macular Degeneration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Zhang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Identifying disease genes is one of the most important topics in biomedicine and may facilitate studies on the mechanisms underlying disease. Age-related macular degeneration (AMD is a serious eye disease; it typically affects older adults and results in a loss of vision due to retina damage. In this study, we attempt to develop an effective method for distinguishing AMD-related genes. Gene ontology and KEGG enrichment analyses of known AMD-related genes were performed, and a classification system was established. In detail, each gene was encoded into a vector by extracting enrichment scores of the gene set, including it and its direct neighbors in STRING, and gene ontology terms or KEGG pathways. Then certain feature-selection methods, including minimum redundancy maximum relevance and incremental feature selection, were adopted to extract key features for the classification system. As a result, 720 GO terms and 11 KEGG pathways were deemed the most important factors for predicting AMD-related genes.

Tenants at-risk-of-poverty induced by housing expenditure – exploratory analyses with EU-SILC

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haffner, M.E.A.; Dol, C.P.; Heylen, K.

2014-01-01

Combating poverty and social exclusion is a core policy issue in the European Union (EU). The Statis-tics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) database facilitates analyses of the extent of poverty and social exclusion. One of the indicators built from the database is the at-risk-of-poverty

Seismic fragility analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kostov, Marin

2000-01-01

In the last two decades there is increasing number of probabilistic seismic risk assessments performed. The basic ideas of the procedure for performing a Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of critical structures (NUREG/CR-2300, 1983) could be used also for normal industrial and residential buildings, dams or other structures. The general formulation of the risk assessment procedure applied in this investigation is presented in Franzini, et al., 1984. The probability of failure of a structure for an expected lifetime (for example 50 years) can be obtained from the annual frequency of failure, β E determined by the relation: β E ∫[d[β(x)]/dx]P(flx)dx. β(x) is the annual frequency of exceedance of load level x (for example, the variable x may be peak ground acceleration), P(fI x) is the conditional probability of structure failure at a given seismic load level x. The problem leads to the assessment of the seismic hazard β(x) and the fragility P(fl x). The seismic hazard curves are obtained by the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The fragility curves are obtained after the response of the structure is defined as probabilistic and its capacity and the associated uncertainties are assessed. Finally the fragility curves are combined with the seismic loading to estimate the frequency of failure for each critical scenario. The frequency of failure due to seismic event is presented by the scenario with the highest frequency. The tools usually applied for probabilistic safety analyses of critical structures could relatively easily be adopted to ordinary structures. The key problems are the seismic hazard definitions and the fragility analyses. The fragility could be derived either based on scaling procedures or on the base of generation. Both approaches have been presented in the paper. After the seismic risk (in terms of failure probability) is assessed there are several approaches for risk reduction. Generally the methods could be classified in two groups. The

Analysing the significance of silence in qualitative interviewing: questioning and shifting power relations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bengtsson, Tea Torbenfeldt; Fynbo, Lars

2017-01-01

In this article we analyse the significance of silence in qualitative interviews with 36 individuals interviewed about high-risk, illegal activities. We describe how silence expresses a dynamic power relationship between interviewer and interviewee. In the analysis, we focus on two different types...... significant data. We conclude that silence constitutes possibilities for interviewees and interviewers to handle the complex power at play in qualitative interviewing either by maintaining or by losing control of the situation....

Risk Factors related to hemorrhage necessitating renal artery embolization after percutaneous nephrostomy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byon, Jung Hee; Han, Young Min; Jin, Gong Yong; Song, Ji Soo

2015-01-01

To investigate risk factors related to severe bleeding necessitating renal artery embolization (RAE) after percutaneous nephrostomy (PCN). 36 patients who underwent RAE from January 2005 to June 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Among them, 10 patients underwent embolization because of severe bleeding after PCN (bleeding group). From 1762 patients who underwent PCN in the same period, we selected 21 patients who underwent PCN without bleeding after the procedure (non-bleeding group). We investigated possible related risk factors, such as the presence of underlying diseases, activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), prothrombin time (PT), platelet count, puncture site, procedure time, size of the kidney, distance from skin to renal cortex, maximum caliber of the indwelling catheter, parenchymal thickness, and grade of hydronephrosis. We used Fisher's exact test and independent t test for data analyses. We classified hydronephrosis as either 'mild hydronephrosis,' or 'moderate or severe hydronephrosis.' The frequency of mild hydronephrosis was 80.0% (8/10) in the bleeding group and 33.3% (7/21) in the non-bleeding group (p = 0.023). There were no significant differences between the two groups in the incidence of underlying diseases. Similarly, other risk factors (PT, aPTT, platelet count, procedure time, distance from skin to renal cortex, maximum caliber of the indwelling catheter, kidney size, and parenhcymal thickness) also did not differ significantly between the two groups. Mild hydronephrosis is a risk factor for severe bleeding necessitating RAE after PCN. Therefore, when performing PCN, careful attention should be paid to patients with mild hydronephrosis

Risk Factors related to hemorrhage necessitating renal artery embolization after percutaneous nephrostomy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Byon, Jung Hee; Han, Young Min; Jin, Gong Yong; Song, Ji Soo [Chonbuk National University Hospital and Medical School, Jeonju (Korea, Republic of)

2015-12-15

To investigate risk factors related to severe bleeding necessitating renal artery embolization (RAE) after percutaneous nephrostomy (PCN). 36 patients who underwent RAE from January 2005 to June 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Among them, 10 patients underwent embolization because of severe bleeding after PCN (bleeding group). From 1762 patients who underwent PCN in the same period, we selected 21 patients who underwent PCN without bleeding after the procedure (non-bleeding group). We investigated possible related risk factors, such as the presence of underlying diseases, activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), prothrombin time (PT), platelet count, puncture site, procedure time, size of the kidney, distance from skin to renal cortex, maximum caliber of the indwelling catheter, parenchymal thickness, and grade of hydronephrosis. We used Fisher's exact test and independent t test for data analyses. We classified hydronephrosis as either 'mild hydronephrosis,' or 'moderate or severe hydronephrosis.' The frequency of mild hydronephrosis was 80.0% (8/10) in the bleeding group and 33.3% (7/21) in the non-bleeding group (p = 0.023). There were no significant differences between the two groups in the incidence of underlying diseases. Similarly, other risk factors (PT, aPTT, platelet count, procedure time, distance from skin to renal cortex, maximum caliber of the indwelling catheter, kidney size, and parenhcymal thickness) also did not differ significantly between the two groups. Mild hydronephrosis is a risk factor for severe bleeding necessitating RAE after PCN. Therefore, when performing PCN, careful attention should be paid to patients with mild hydronephrosis.

Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Connell, Paul P; Keane, Pearse A; O'Neill, Evelyn C; Altaie, Rasha W; Loane, Edward; Neelam, Kumari; Nolan, John M; Beatty, Stephen

2009-01-01

Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

Risk Factors for Age-Related Maculopathy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul P. Connell

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Age-related maculopathy (ARM is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Connell, Paul P

2012-02-01

Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715\\/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

Association between Work-Related Stress and Risk for Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Sui, Hua; Sun, Nijing; Zhan, Libin; Lu, Xiaoguang; Chen, Tuo; Mao, Xinyong

2016-01-01

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly around the world. Work-related stress is thought to be a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes; however, this association has not been widely studied, and the findings that have been reported are inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to explore the association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes. A systematic literature search and manual search limited to articles published in English were performed to select the prospective cohort studies evaluated the association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes up to September 2014 from four electronic databases including PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science. A random-effects model was used to estimate the overall risk. No significant association was found between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes based on meta-analysis of seven prospective cohort studies involving 214,086 participants and 5,511 cases (job demands: relative risk 0.94 [95% confidence interval 0.72-1.23]; decision latitude: relative risk 1.16 [0.85-1.58]; job strain: relative risk 1.12 [.0.95-1.32]). However, an association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes was observed in women (job strain: relative risk 1.22 [1.01-1.46]) (P = 0.04). A sensitivity analysis conducted by excluding one study in each turn yielded similar results. No publication bias was detected with a funnel plot despite the limited number of studies included in the analysis. The results of this meta-analysis did not confirm a direct association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes. In subgroup analyses we found job strain was a risk factor for type 2 diabetes in women.

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces

Age-related macular degeneration: the importance of family history as a risk factor.

Science.gov (United States)

Shahid, Humma; Khan, Jane C; Cipriani, Valentina; Sepp, Tiina; Matharu, Baljinder K; Bunce, Catey; Harding, Simon P; Clayton, David G; Moore, Anthony T; Yates, John R W

2012-03-01

Family history is considered a risk factor for age-related macular degeneration (AMD). With the advent of effective therapy for the disease, the importance of family history merits further investigation. This study quantifies the risk associated with family history, first, by a case-control study of reported family history and, second, by examining the siblings of AMD cases. The authors recruited cases with advanced AMD, spouses and siblings. All subjects were carefully phenotyped. Clinical findings in the siblings were compared with spouses. Information about family history was collected. The ORs for reported family history of AMD were calculated. Analyses were adjusted for age, smoking and genotype. 495 AMD cases, 259 spouses and 171 siblings were recruited. The OR for AMD was 27.8 (CI 3.8 to 203.0; p=0.001) with a reported family history of an affected parent and 12.0 (CI 3.7 to 38.6; p<0.0001) with a history of an affected sibling. ORs adjusted for age and smoking were higher. Examination of siblings confirmed their increased risk with 23% affected by AMD and an OR of 10.8 (4.5 to 25.8; p<0.0001). Adjusting for age increased the OR to 16.1 (6.2 to 41.8). The risk of AMD is greatly increased by having an affected first-degree relative. Those at risk need to be made aware of this and AMD patients should advise siblings and children to seek prompt ophthalmological advice if they develop visual symptoms of distortion or reduced vision.

Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

OpenAIRE

Loebnitz, K.

2011-01-01

Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and scenario analyses. In this thesis we present a more rigorous framework that allows us to measure a bank's liquidity risk within the standard economic capital and RAROC setting. In particular, we introduc...

Prostate cancer mortality risk in relation to working underground in the Wismut cohort study of German uranium miners, 1970-2003.

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Linda; Dufey, Florian; Tschense, Annemarie; Schnelzer, Maria; Sogl, Marion; Kreuzer, Michaela

2012-01-01

A recent study and comprehensive literature review has indicated that mining could be protective against prostate cancer. This indication has been explored further here by analysing prostate cancer mortality in the German 'Wismut' uranium miner cohort, which has detailed information on the number of days worked underground. An historical cohort study of 58 987 male mine workers with retrospective follow-up before 1999 and prospective follow-up since 1999. Uranium mine workers employed during the period 1970-1990 in the regions of Saxony and Thuringia, Germany, contributing 1.42 million person-years of follow-up ending in 2003. Simple standardised mortality ratio (SMR) analyses were applied to assess differences between the national and cohort prostate cancer mortality rates and complemented by refined analyses done entirely within the cohort. The internal comparisons applied Poisson regression excess relative prostate cancer mortality risk model with background stratification by age and calendar year and a whole range of possible explanatory covariables that included days worked underground and years worked at high physical activity with γ radiation treated as a confounder. The analysis is based on miner data for 263 prostate cancer deaths. The overall SMR was 0.85 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.95). A linear excess relative risk model with the number of years worked at high physical activity and the number of days worked underground as explanatory covariables provided a statistically significant fit when compared with the background model (p=0.039). Results (with 95% CIs) for the excess relative risk per day worked underground indicated a statistically significant (p=0.0096) small protective effect of -5.59 (-9.81 to -1.36) ×10(-5). Evidence is provided from the German Wismut cohort in support of a protective effect from working underground on prostate cancer mortality risk.

Dyslexia risk gene relates to representation of sound in the auditory brainstem.

Science.gov (United States)

Neef, Nicole E; Müller, Bent; Liebig, Johanna; Schaadt, Gesa; Grigutsch, Maren; Gunter, Thomas C; Wilcke, Arndt; Kirsten, Holger; Skeide, Michael A; Kraft, Indra; Kraus, Nina; Emmrich, Frank; Brauer, Jens; Boltze, Johannes; Friederici, Angela D

2017-04-01

Dyslexia is a reading disorder with strong associations with KIAA0319 and DCDC2. Both genes play a functional role in spike time precision of neurons. Strikingly, poor readers show an imprecise encoding of fast transients of speech in the auditory brainstem. Whether dyslexia risk genes are related to the quality of sound encoding in the auditory brainstem remains to be investigated. Here, we quantified the response consistency of speech-evoked brainstem responses to the acoustically presented syllable [da] in 159 genotyped, literate and preliterate children. When controlling for age, sex, familial risk and intelligence, partial correlation analyses associated a higher dyslexia risk loading with KIAA0319 with noisier responses. In contrast, a higher risk loading with DCDC2 was associated with a trend towards more stable responses. These results suggest that unstable representation of sound, and thus, reduced neural discrimination ability of stop consonants, occurred in genotypes carrying a higher amount of KIAA0319 risk alleles. Current data provide the first evidence that the dyslexia-associated gene KIAA0319 can alter brainstem responses and impair phoneme processing in the auditory brainstem. This brain-gene relationship provides insight into the complex relationships between phenotype and genotype thereby improving the understanding of the dyslexia-inherent complex multifactorial condition. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Data and analyses of phase relations in the Ce-Fe-Sb ternary system.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Daiman; Xu, Chengliang; Li, Changrong; Guo, Cuiping; Zheng, Raowen; Du, Zhenmin; Li, Junqin

2018-02-01

These data and analyses support the research article "Experimental study on phase relations in the Ce-Fe-Sb ternary system" Zhu et al. (2017) [1]. The data and analyses presented here include the experimental results of XRD, SEM and EPMA for the determination of the whole liquidus projection and the isothermal section at 823 K in the Ce-Fe-Sb system. All the results enable the understanding of the constituent phases and the solidification processes of the as-cast alloys as well as the phase relations and the equilibrium regions at 823 K in the Ce-Fe-Sb ternary system over the entire composition.

School-related risk factors for drunkenness among adolescents: risk factors differ between socio-economic groups

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Anette; Holstein, Bjørn E; Due, Pernille

2006-01-01

Purpose: To examine, separately for boys and girls, whether socio-economic differences in drunkenness exist in adolescence, whether the level of exposure to school-related risk factors differ between socio-economic groups, and whether the relative contribution of school-related risk factors......) was measured by parental occupation. RESULTS: Among girls, exposures to school-related risk factors were more prevalent in lower socio-economic groups. Poor school satisfaction was associated with drunkenness among girls from high SEP, odds ratio (OR) = 2.98 (0.73-12.16). Among boys from high SEP autonomy...

Contour plot assessment of existing meta-analyses confirms robust association of statin use and acute kidney injury risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Chevance, Aurélie; Schuster, Tibor; Steele, Russell; Ternès, Nils; Platt, Robert W

2015-10-01

Robustness of an existing meta-analysis can justify decisions on whether to conduct an additional study addressing the same research question. We illustrate the graphical assessment of the potential impact of an additional study on an existing meta-analysis using published data on statin use and the risk of acute kidney injury. A previously proposed graphical augmentation approach is used to assess the sensitivity of the current test and heterogeneity statistics extracted from existing meta-analysis data. In addition, we extended the graphical augmentation approach to assess potential changes in the pooled effect estimate after updating a current meta-analysis and applied the three graphical contour definitions to data from meta-analyses on statin use and acute kidney injury risk. In the considered example data, the pooled effect estimates and heterogeneity indices demonstrated to be considerably robust to the addition of a future study. Supportingly, for some previously inconclusive meta-analyses, a study update might yield statistically significant kidney injury risk increase associated with higher statin exposure. The illustrated contour approach should become a standard tool for the assessment of the robustness of meta-analyses. It can guide decisions on whether to conduct additional studies addressing a relevant research question. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cancer risks related to low-level RF/MW exposures, including cell phones.

Science.gov (United States)

Szmigielski, Stanislaw

2013-09-01

For years, radiofrequency (RF) and microwave (MW) radiations have been applied in the modern world. The rapidly increasing use of cellular phones called recent attention to the possible health risks of RF/MW exposures. In 2011, a group of international experts organized by IARC (International Agency for Research on Cancer in Lyon) concluded that RF/MW radiations should be listed as a possible carcinogen (group 2B) for humans. Three meta-analyses of case-control studies have concluded that using cell phones for more than ten years was associated with an increase in the overall risk of developing a brain tumor. The Interphone Study, the largest health-related case-control international study of use of cell phones and head and neck tumors, showed no statistically significant increases in brain cancers related to higher amounts of cell phone use, but excess risk in a small subgroup of more heavily exposed users associated with latency and laterality was reported. So far, the published studies do not show that mobile phones could for sure increase the risk of cancer. This conclusion is based on the lack of a solid biological mechanism, and the fact that brain cancer rates are not going up significantly. However, all of the studies so far have weaknesses, which make it impossible to entirely rule out a risk. Mobile phones are still a new technology and there is little evidence about effects of long-term use. For this reason, bioelectromagnetic experts advise application of a precautionary resources. It suggests that if people want to use a cell phone, they can choose to minimize their exposure by keeping calls short and preferably using hand-held sets. It also advises discouraging children from making non essential calls as well as also keeping their calls short.

The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

Ergonomic analysis for the assessment of the risk of work-related musculoskeletal disorder in forestry operations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raimondo Gallo

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The risk to run into a Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorder (WMSD is very high when operating in the primary sector. As a matter of fact the professional illnesses related to the WMSD in Italy are increasing. Nowadays the assessment of the WMSD in the primary sector is performed mainly in the agricultural sector, considering different agronomical activities; for the forestry sector, only few documents reported an ergonomic evaluation. The lack of available information on this topic in the forestry sector, as well as the similarity with the agricultural sector, drives the interest to the assessment of the conditions that expose workers to WMSD risks in forestry operations. Four different assessment approaches were applied in this study. These tools permitted to classify which are the exposures and if there is the presence of WMSD risk for forest operators. The approaches are respectively the OCRA checklist and the RNLE equation, both recognized as ISO standards, as well as OWAS and REBA, recommended by ISO standards. The first approach focusses on the risk due to repetitive and stressed movements, while the second evaluates the risk of injures due to the manual movement of loads. Meanwhile OWAS and REBA detect the possibility of injures due to wrong postures during the work. These approaches were applied for the cutting operations with chainsaw. Since the evaluation requires high levels of attention and also because it was necessary to gain a good level of safety for the surveyor, a digital camera was used to film the operative activities. Then, the movies were analysed in office. Aim of the research is to analyse if it is possible to apply the approaches suggested by ISO standards in order to assess the most dangerous activities that, when not properly carried out, could be the cause of WMSD in forestry operations. The study showed that during the use of the chainsaw the index of risk of professional injures was overpassed several times

Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

1988-03-01

This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

Analysing public relations education through international standards: The Portuguese case

OpenAIRE

Gonçalves, Gisela Marques Pereira; Spínola, Susana de Carvalho; Padamo, Celma

2013-01-01

By using international reports on PR education as a benchmark we analyse the status of PR higher education in Portugal. Despite differences among the study programs, the findings reveal that the standard five courses recommendation by the Commission on Public Relations Education (CPRE) are a part of Portuguese undergraduate curriculum. This includes 12 of the 14 content field guidelines needed to achieve the ideal master's program. Data shows, however, the difficulty of positioning public rel...

Climate risk assessment in museums : degradation risks determined from temperature and relative humidity data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Martens, M.H.J.

2012-01-01

The main subject of this thesis is the determination of climate risks to objects in museums on the basis of measured and/or simulated temperature and relative humidity data. The focus is on the quantification of climate related risks for the preservation quality of indoor climate in Dutch museums.

Evaluation of energy related risk acceptance (APHA energy task force)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hull, A.P.

1977-01-01

Living in a technological society with large energy requirements involves a number of related actities with attendant health risks, both to the working and to the general public. Therefore, the formulation of some general principles for risk acceptance is necessary. In addition to maximizing benefits and minimizing risk, relevant considerations must be made about the perception of risk as voluntary or involuntary, the number of persons collectively at risk at any one occasion, and the extent to which a risk is a familiar one. With regard to a given benefit, such as a given amount of energy, comparisons of the risks of alternate modes of production may be utilized. However, cost-benefit consideration is essential to the amelioration of current or prospective risks. This is unusual, since it is based on some estimate of the monetary value per premature death averted. It is proposed that increased longevity would be a more satisfactory measure. On a societal basis, large expenditures for additional energy-related pollution control do not appear justifiable since much larger, nonenergy-related health risks are relatively underaddressed. Knowledgeable health professionals could benefit the public by imparting authoritative information in this area

Fall-related injuries in a nursing home setting: is polypharmacy a risk factor?

Science.gov (United States)

Baranzini, Federico; Diurni, Marcello; Ceccon, Francesca; Poloni, Nicola; Cazzamalli, Sara; Costantini, Chiara; Colli, Cristiano; Greco, Laura; Callegari, Camilla

2009-12-11

Polypharmacy is regarded as an important risk factor for fallingand several studies and meta-analyses have shown an increased fall risk in users of diuretics, type 1a antiarrhythmics, digoxin and psychotropic agents. In particular, recent evidence has shown that fall risk is associated with the use of polypharmacy regimens that include at least one established fall risk-increasing drug, rather than with polypharmacy per se. We studied the role of polypharmacy and the role of well-known fall risk-increasing drugs on the incidence of injurious falls. A retrospective observational study was carried out in a population of elderly nursing home residents. An unmatched, post-stratification design for age class, gender and length of stay was adopted. In all, 695 falls were recorded in 293 residents. 221 residents (75.4%) were female and 72 (24.6%) male, and 133 (45.4%) were recurrent fallers. 152 residents sustained no injuries when they fell, whereas injuries were sustained by 141: minor in 95 (67.4%) and major in 46 (32.6%). Only fall dynamics (p = 0.013) and drugs interaction between antiarrhythmic or antiparkinson class and polypharmacy regimen (> or =7 medications) seem to represent a risk association for injuries (p = 0.024; OR = 4.4; CI 95% 1.21 - 15.36). This work reinforces the importance of routine medication reviews, especially in residents exposed to polypharmacy regimens that include antiarrhythmics or antiparkinson drugs, in order to reduce the risk of fall-related injuries during nursing home stays.

Binge drinking among adolescents: prevalence, risk practices and related variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Golpe, Sandra; Isorna, Manuel; Barreiro, Carmen; Braña, Teresa; Rial, Antonio

2017-09-29

According to the last Survey on Drug Use among Secondary School Students (ESTUDES 2014-2015), consumption levels of alcohol and other substances have decreased in the last years in Spain. However, available data on binge drinking remain worrying, given the negative consequences related with this pattern. The aim of this paper is to analyse binge drinking among adolescents, providing updated data on prevalence in addition to information about the consequences and some predictive factors of binge drinking. A correlational method was used for this purpose, comprised of administering a survey to Compulsory Secondary School, High School and Vocational Training students. Based on a sample of 3,419 Galician adolescents aged between 12 and 18 years (M = 14.57; SD = 1.76), the results show that binge drinking is a common and global practice, with few socio-demographic differences but related with a wide range of risk practices. Furthermore, variables such as consumption expectancies, consumption by family and friends, as well as curfew time and allowance money have been identified as interesting predictive factors that should be taken into account at the preventive level.

Reconceptualising risk: Perceptions of risk in rural and remote maternity service planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Barclay, Lesley; Kornelsen, Jude; Longman, Jo; Robin, Sarah; Kruske, Sue; Kildea, Sue; Pilcher, Jennifer; Martin, Tanya; Grzybowski, Stefan; Donoghue, Deborah; Rolfe, Margaret; Morgan, Geoff

2016-07-01

to explore perceptions and examples of risk related to pregnancy and childbirth in rural and remote Australia and how these influence the planning of maternity services. data collection in this qualitative component of a mixed methods study included 88 semi-structured individual and group interviews (n=102), three focus groups (n=22) and one group information session (n=17). Researchers identified two categories of risk for exploration: health services risk (including clinical and corporate risks) and social risk (including cultural, emotional and financial risks). Data were aggregated and thematically analysed to identify perceptions and examples of risk related to each category. fieldwork was conducted in four jurisdictions at nine sites in rural (n=3) and remote (n=6) Australia. 117 health service employees and 24 consumers. examples and perceptions relating to each category of risk were identified from the data. Most medical practitioners and health service managers perceived clinical risks related to rural birthing services without access to caesarean section. Consumer participants were more likely to emphasise social risks arising from a lack of local birthing services. our analysis demonstrated that the closure of services adds social risk, which exacerbates clinical risk. Analysis also highlighted that perceptions of clinical risk are privileged over social risk in decisions about rural and remote maternity service planning. a comprehensive analysis of risk that identifies how social and other forms of risk contribute to adverse clinical outcomes would benefit rural and remote people and their health services. Formal risk analyses should consider the risks associated with failure to provide birthing services in rural and remote communities as well as the risks of maintaining services. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Civil engineering airman at increased risk for injuries and injury-related musculoskeletal disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Timothy S; Wells, Timothy S

2011-03-01

With the advent of electronic records, the opportunity to conduct research on workplace-related injuries and musculoskeletal disorders has increased dramatically. The purpose of this study was to examine the United States Air Force Civil Engineering career field to determine if they are negatively impacted by their work environment. Specifically, the objective of this study was to determine if enlisted Civil Engineering Airmen (n = 25,385) were at increased risk for injury or injury-related musculoskeletal disorders compared to enlisted Information Management/Communications Airmen (n = 28,947). Using an historical prospective design, electronic data were assembled and analyzed using Cox's proportional hazards modeling. Models were stratified by gender and adjusted for race/ethnicity, marital status, birth year, and deployment status. Male Civil Engineers were observed to be at greater risk for both inpatient injury-related musculoskeletal disorders (HR = 1.86; 95% CI = 1.54-2.26) and injuries (HR = 1.77; 95% CI = 1.48-2.11), while female Civil Engineers were more than double the risk for both inpatient injury-related musculoskeletal disorders (HR = 2.18; 95% CI = 1.28-3.73) and injuries (HR = 2.22; 95% CI = 1.27-3.88) compared to Information Management/Communications Airmen. Although analyses do not allow exploration of specific causes, they highlight the utility of using electronic data to identify occupations for further evaluation. Based on these results, additional resources were allocated to survey Civil Engineers on their physical work demands and job requirements to identify key problem areas for further study and mitigation. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Affect and Acceptability: Exploring Teachers' Technology-Related Risk Perceptions

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, Sarah K.

2011-01-01

Educational change, such as technology integration, involves risk. Teachers are encouraged to "take risks", but what risks they are asked to take and how do they perceive these risks? Developing an understanding of teachers' technology-related risk perceptions can help explain their choices and behaviours. This paper presents a way to…

Optimal Consumption and Investment under Time-Varying Relative Risk Aversion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Steffensen, Mogens

2011-01-01

We consider the continuous time consumption-investment problem originally formalized and solved by Merton in case of constant relative risk aversion. We present a complete solution for the case where relative risk aversion with respect to consumption varies with time, having in mind an investor...... with age-dependent risk aversion. This provides a new motivation for life-cycle investment rules. We study the optimal consumption and investment rules, in particular in the case where the relative risk aversion with respect to consumption is increasing with age....

Elderly Taiwanese's Intrinsic Risk Factors for Fall-related Injuries

OpenAIRE

In-Fun Li; Yvonne Hsiung; Hui-Fen Hsing; Mei-Yu Lee; Te-Hsin Chang; Ming-Yuan Huang

2016-01-01

Background: As a vital issue in geriatric research, risk factors for falls were concluded to be multifactorial, and prevention has been mostly aimed at decreasing situational and environmental risks that cause and aggravate fall-related injuries, particularly within the institutions. While knowledge is limited about older patients' intrinsic determinants, the purpose of this study was to explore elderly Taiwanese's intrinsic risk factors associated with severe fall-related injuries. Method...

Scenario sensitivity analyses performed on the PRESTO-EPA LLW risk assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bandrowski, M.S.

1988-01-01

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently developing standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. As part of the standard development, EPA has performed risk assessments using the PRESTO-EPA codes. A program of sensitivity analysis was conducted on the PRESTO-EPA codes, consisting of single parameter sensitivity analysis and scenario sensitivity analysis. The results of the single parameter sensitivity analysis were discussed at the 1987 DOE LLW Management Conference. Specific scenario sensitivity analyses have been completed and evaluated. Scenario assumptions that were analyzed include: site location, disposal method, form of waste, waste volume, analysis time horizon, critical radionuclides, use of buffer zones, and global health effects

Regulatory analyses for severe accident issues: an example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burke, R.P.; Strip, D.R.; Aldrich, D.C.

1984-09-01

This report presents the results of an effort to develop a regulatory analysis methodology and presentation format to provide information for regulatory decision-making related to severe accident issues. Insights and conclusions gained from an example analysis are presented. The example analysis draws upon information generated in several previous and current NRC research programs (the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP), Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP), Value-Impact Handbook, Economic Risk Analyses, and studies of Vented Containment Systems and Alternative Decay Heat Removal Systems) to perform preliminary value-impact analyses on the installation of either a vented containment system or an alternative decay heat removal system at the Peach Bottom No. 2 plant. The results presented in this report are first-cut estimates, and are presented only for illustrative purposes in the context of this document. This study should serve to focus discussion on issues relating to the type of information, the appropriate level of detail, and the presentation format which would make a regulatory analysis most useful in the decisionmaking process

Public attitudes towards industrial, work-related and other risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prescott-Clarke, P.

1982-01-01

Two reports describing work sponsored by the Health and Safety Executive are presented. The first describes a study of public attitudes towards industrial, work related, nuclear industry related and other risks. The second report describes public attitudes towards the acceptability of risks. (U.K.)

Brain tumour risk in relation to mobile telephone use

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Christoffer

2010-01-01

The rapid increase in mobile telephone use has generated concern about possible health risks related to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from this technology.......The rapid increase in mobile telephone use has generated concern about possible health risks related to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from this technology....

Young people's perspectives on health-related risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grace Elisabeth Spencer

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Drawing upon current socio-cultural understandings of risk, this study highlights the disjunction between the expert risk discourses that permeate official public health policy and practice, and young people’s own perspectives on health and risk. Data were collected from young people aged 14-16 years through the use of group and individual interviews in a school and community youth centre setting. Findings from this study question the saliency of expert-defined health-related risks to young people’s everyday lives. Young people in this study saw health as closely linked to ‘being happy’. Friendships and a sense of personal achievement were particularly important to participants’ health and well-being. When accounting for their participation in health-related practices identified as ‘risky’ in government policy – such as smoking, alcohol and substance use – young people emphasised the levels of pressure they experienced. Sources of pressure included arguments and bullying, school work, and negative stereotypes of young people in general. These areas indicated young people’s concerns that reach beyond the official prescriptions permeating current health policy.

Varied definitions of risk related to sensation seeking trait

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daastoel, P.Oe.U.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M.

1999-01-01

This pilot study is based on the assumption and the knowledge that previous results show that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. The risk definitions the subjects use have also been shown to be related to various educational interests. A related field of research has developed measures for Sensation Seeking personality trait, with four facets. Three independent groups of first year psychology students reported their normal definition of the word risk using one of three measurement formats. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was danger. Subjects who defined risk as the combination of probability and consequences tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale, as compared to those defining risk as the probability of an event

Varied definitions of risk related to sensation seeking trait

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daastoel, P.Oe.U.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M. [Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway). Dept. of Psychology

1999-12-01

This pilot study is based on the assumption and the knowledge that previous results show that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. The risk definitions the subjects use have also been shown to be related to various educational interests. A related field of research has developed measures for Sensation Seeking personality trait, with four facets. Three independent groups of first year psychology students reported their normal definition of the word risk using one of three measurement formats. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was danger. Subjects who defined risk as the combination of probability and consequences tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale, as compared to those defining risk as the probability of an event.

Analysing the Effects of Flood-Resilience Technologies in Urban Areas Using a Synthetic Model Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reinhard Schinke

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Flood protection systems with their spatial effects play an important role in managing and reducing flood risks. The planning and decision process as well as the technical implementation are well organized and often exercised. However, building-related flood-resilience technologies (FReT are often neglected due to the absence of suitable approaches to analyse and to integrate such measures in large-scale flood damage mitigation concepts. Against this backdrop, a synthetic model-approach was extended by few complementary methodical steps in order to calculate flood damage to buildings considering the effects of building-related FReT and to analyse the area-related reduction of flood risks by geo-information systems (GIS with high spatial resolution. It includes a civil engineering based investigation of characteristic properties with its building construction including a selection and combination of appropriate FReT as a basis for derivation of synthetic depth-damage functions. Depending on the real exposition and the implementation level of FReT, the functions can be used and allocated in spatial damage and risk analyses. The application of the extended approach is shown at a case study in Valencia (Spain. In this way, the overall research findings improve the integration of FReT in flood risk management. They provide also some useful information for advising of individuals at risk supporting the selection and implementation of FReT.

[Mother-newborn relational risk - Study of prevalence and associated variables].

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, Maribel; Poo, Ana María; Baeza, Bernardita; Bustos, M Luis

2015-01-01

Clinical evidence reveals the importance of mother-newborn bonding experience for health promoting and maintenance of human life. If the newborn lacks care and affection, she/he may develop an attachment disorder. A predictive scale regarding the risk of mothernewborn relationships is available, which makes possible an early intervention to prevent the development of relational disorders. The aim of this study is to apply the Kimelman measurement scale to determine the relational risk in mother-newborn pairs, as well as the prevalence and the associated biopsychosocial variables. A cross-sectional study with a probabilistic sample of 333 mother-infant pairs in postpartum maternity at Temuco hospital. The Kimelman mother-newborn attachment assessment guide was used. Biopsychosocial variables were obtained from the mothers studied. The association of biopsychosocial variables with relational risk was analyzed using OR and confidence intervals of 95%. The prevalence of high relational risk was 43.8%. The associated biopsychosocial variables included, women with no steady partner, single parent, teenage mothers, unwanted and unplanned pregnancy. Almost half of the mothers were in the high risk group. Early identification of relational risk and its related variables could help in the intervention in this vulnerable group. Copyright © 2015. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

A 3-Factor Model Relating Communication to Risk Mitigation of Extended Information System Failover

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Athanasios Podaras

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to analyse the relation between timely and effective communication and risk mitigation of late recovery after an unexpected information system outage in enterprises. An unforeseen information system failure in modern enterprise units, may result to significant operational and financial damage. In such a critical incident, effective communication between the team leaders and the recovery team involved, can minimize or even eliminate this negative impact. An extended information system outage can be perceived as a time deviation from the Maximum Accepted Outage (ΜΑΟ timeframe, proposed by the business continuity management, according to the value of which dependent business functions may be interrupted without any serious effects to the company. The paper examines the relation between 3 basic factors and the efficient communication between team members. The factors are: timely information distribution, staff availability and network availability. Through the current paper, the author proposes a risk analysis model, based on the Composite Risk Index theory of Risk Management, which can significantly diminish the possibility of an extended information system outage, as well as calculate the extended time required to recover a system when the aforementioned factors emerge in their worst form. The precise calculation of recovery time can be achieved via the execution of business continuity tests which include scenarios, according to which an unexpected system outage coexists with delayed information distribution as well as low staff and network availability.

[Clinical research XXIII. From clinical judgment to meta-analyses].

Science.gov (United States)

Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo; Castelán-Martínez, Osvaldo D; Pérez-Rodríguez, Marcela; Palacios-Cruz, Lino; Noyola-Castillo, Maura E; Talavera, Juan O

2014-01-01

Systematic reviews (SR) are studies made in order to ask clinical questions based on original articles. Meta-analysis (MTA) is the mathematical analysis of SR. These analyses are divided in two groups, those which evaluate the measured results of quantitative variables (for example, the body mass index -BMI-) and those which evaluate qualitative variables (for example, if a patient is alive or dead, or if he is healing or not). Quantitative variables generally use the mean difference analysis and qualitative variables can be performed using several calculations: odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR), absolute risk reduction (ARR) and hazard ratio (HR). These analyses are represented through forest plots which allow the evaluation of each individual study, as well as the heterogeneity between studies and the overall effect of the intervention. These analyses are mainly based on Student's t test and chi-squared. To take appropriate decisions based on the MTA, it is important to understand the characteristics of statistical methods in order to avoid misinterpretations.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Related Knowledge, Risk ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

There was poor HIV preventive practices; indicating ... Gyawali, et al.: HIV related knowledge, risk perception and practices among married women. Annals of Medical .... of this study correspond to the Indian, Nigerian and Iranian studies cited ...

Dietary supplement use and colorectal cancer risk: A systematic review and meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heine-Bröring, R.C.; Winkels, R.M.; Renkema, J.M.S.; Kragt, L.; Orten-Luiten, van A.C.B.; Tigchelaar, E.F.; Chan, D.S.M.; Norat, T.; Kampman, E.

2015-01-01

Use of dietary supplements is rising in countries where colorectal cancer is prevalent. We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies on dietary supplement use and colorectal cancer risk. We identified relevant studies in Medline, Embase and Cochrane up

Radon in homes and risk of lung cancer: 13 collaborative analyses of individual data from European case-control studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darby, S.; Hill, D.; Doll, R.; Auvinen, A.; Barros Dios, J.M.; Ruano Ravina, A.; Baysson, H.; Tirmarche, M.; Bochicchio, F.; Deo, H.; Falk, R.; Forastiere, F.; Hakama, M.; Heid, I.; Schaffrath Rosario, A.; Wichmann, H.E.; Kreienbrock, L.; Kreuzer, M.; Lagarde, F.; Pershagen, G.; Makelainen, I.; Ruosteenoja, E.; Muirhead, C.; Oberaigner, W.; TomaBek, L.; Whitley, E.

2007-01-01

Objective: To determine the risk of lung cancer associated with exposure at home to the radioactive disintegration products of naturally occurring radon gas. Design: Collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 case-control studies of residential radon and lung cancer. Setting: Nine European countries. Subjects: 7148 cases of lung cancer and 14 208 controls. Main outcome measures: Relative risks of lung cancer and radon gas concentrations in homes inhabited during the previous 5-34 years measured in becquerels (radon disintegrations per second) per cubic metre (Bq/m3) of household air. Results: The mean measured radon concentration in homes of people in the control group was 97 Bq/m3, with 11% measuring > 200 and 4% measuring > 400 Bq/m3. For cases of lung cancer the mean concentration was 104 Bq/m3. The risk of lung cancer increased by 8.4% (95% confidence interval 3.0% to 15.8%) per 100 Bq/m3 increase in measured radon (P=0.0007). This corresponds to an increase of 16% (5% to 31%) per 100 Bq/m3 increase in usual radon- that is, after correction for the dilution caused by random uncertainties in measuring radon concentrations. The dose-response relation seemed to be linear with no threshold and remained significant (P = 0.04) in analyses limited to individuals from homes with measured radon < 200 Bq/m3. The proportionate excess risk did not differ significantly with study, age, sex, or smoking. In the absence of other causes of death, the absolute risks of lung cancer by age 75 years at usual radon concentrations of 0, 100, and 400 Bq/m3 would be about 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.7%, respectively, for lifelong non-smokers, and about 25 times greater (10%, 12%, and 16%) for cigarette smokers. Conclusions: Collectively, though not separately, these studies show appreciable hazards from residential radon, particularly for smokers and recent ex-smokers, and indicate that it is responsible for about 2% of all deaths from cancer in Europe. (author)

Incidence and risk factors for central venous access port-related infection in Chinese cancer patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ting-Yao; Lee, Kuan-Der; Chen, Ping-Tsung; Chen, Min-Chi; Chen, Yi-Yang; Huang, Cih-En; Kuan, Feng-Che; Chen, Chih-Cheng; Lu, Chang Hsien

2015-11-01

Cytotoxic chemotherapy via central venous access ports is an important part of the standard treatment for most cancers, but it is accompanied with the risk of infections. This study aimed to analyze the incidence and risk factors for central venous access port-related infection (CPI) among Chinese patients receiving cytotoxic chemotherapy. Between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2005 a total of 1391 cancer patients with 1449 totally implantable central venous access ports were evaluated. The log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards model were used for the analyses of risk factors. The overall CPI incidence rate was 0.21 per 1000 catheter-days. Hematological malignancies and head and neck cancer were associated with an increased risk of CPI (hazard ratio 4.00 and 4.11, respectively, both p risk of infection than for patients in a nonadjuvant setting (p ports. Implementation of an insertion bundle for the prevention of central line-associated bloodstream infections is warranted, especially for those patients with hematological and head and neck cancers, as well as for patients receiving chemotherapy in the metastatic settings. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Loebnitz, K.

2011-01-01

Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and

Smoking-attributable medical expenditures by age, sex, and smoking status estimated using a relative risk approach☆

Science.gov (United States)

Maciosek, Michael V.; Xu, Xin; Butani, Amy L.; Pechacek, Terry F.

2015-01-01

Objective To accurately assess the benefits of tobacco control interventions and to better inform decision makers, knowledge of medical expenditures by age, gender, and smoking status is essential. Method We propose an approach to distribute smoking-attributable expenditures by age, gender, and cigarette smoking status to reflect the known risks of smoking. We distribute hospitalization days for smoking-attributable diseases according to relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality, and use the method to determine national estimates of smoking-attributable expenditures by age, sex, and cigarette smoking status. Sensitivity analyses explored assumptions of the method. Results Both current and former smokers ages 75 and over have about 12 times the smoking-attributable expenditures of their current and former smoker counterparts 35–54 years of age. Within each age group, the expenditures of formers smokers are about 70% lower than current smokers. In sensitivity analysis, these results were not robust to large changes to the relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality which were used in the calculations. Conclusion Sex- and age-group-specific smoking expenditures reflect observed disease risk differences between current and former cigarette smokers and indicate that about 70% of current smokers’ excess medical care costs is preventable by quitting. PMID:26051203

Analysing relations between specific and total liking scores

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Menichelli, Elena; Kraggerud, Hilde; Olsen, Nina Veflen

2013-01-01

The objective of this article is to present a new statistical approach for the study of consumer liking. Total liking data are extended by incorporating liking for specific sensory properties. The approach combines different analyses for the purpose of investigating the most important aspects...... of liking and indicating which products are similarly or differently perceived by which consumers. A method based on the differences between total liking and the specific liking variables is proposed for studying both relative differences among products and individual consumer differences. Segmentation...... is also tested out in order to distinguish consumers with the strongest differences in their liking values. The approach is illustrated by a case study, based on cheese data. In the consumer test consumers were asked to evaluate their total liking, the liking for texture and the liking for odour/taste. (C...

Review on risk factors related to lower back disorders at workplace

Science.gov (United States)

A' Tifah Jaffar, Nur; Nasrull Abdol Rahman, Mohd

2017-08-01

This review examines the evidence of the occurrence of risk exposure on work-related lower back disorders in the workplace. This review also investigates potential interactions between the risk factors in the workplace which include heavy physical work risk factor, static work postures risk factor, frequent bending and twisting risk factor, lifting risk factor, pushing and pulling risk factor, repetitive work risk factor, vibration risk factor, psychological and psychosocial risk factor that may be associated with symptoms of musculoskeletal disorders of lower back. These risk factors can reinforce each other and their influence can also be mediated by cultural or social factors. A systematic review of the literature was carried out by searching using databases and the searching strategy was used combined keyword for risk factors, work-related lower back disorders, heavy physical work, static work postures, frequent bending and twisting, lifting, pushing and pulling, repetitive work, vibration, psychological and psychosocial risk factor. A total of 67 articles were identified and reviewed. The risk factors identified that related for low back disorder are seven which are heavy physical work, static work postures, frequent bending and twisting, lifting, pushing and pulling, repetitive work, vibration, psychological and psychosocial risk factor and the level of evidence supporting the relationship with lower back disorders also described such as strong, moderate, insufficient, limited and no evidence. This result confirms that, existing of higher physical and psychosocial demand related to reported risk factors of low back disorders. The result also showed that previous reviews had evaluated relationship between risk factors of low back disorders and specific types of musculoskeletal disorders. This review also highlights the scarves evidence regarding some of the frequently reported risk factors for work related lower back disorders.

Fall-related injuries in a nursing home setting: is polypharmacy a risk factor?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Colli Cristiano

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Polypharmacy is regarded as an important risk factor for fallingand several studies and meta-analyses have shown an increased fall risk in users of diuretics, type 1a antiarrhythmics, digoxin and psychotropic agents. In particular, recent evidence has shown that fall risk is associated with the use of polypharmacy regimens that include at least one established fall risk-increasing drug, rather than with polypharmacy per se. We studied the role of polypharmacy and the role of well-known fall risk-increasing drugs on the incidence of injurious falls. Methods A retrospective observational study was carried out in a population of elderly nursing home residents. An unmatched, post-stratification design for age class, gender and length of stay was adopted. In all, 695 falls were recorded in 293 residents. Results 221 residents (75.4% were female and 72 (24.6% male, and 133 (45.4% were recurrent fallers. 152 residents sustained no injuries when they fell, whereas injuries were sustained by 141: minor in 95 (67.4% and major in 46 (32.6%. Only fall dynamics (p = 0.013 and drugs interaction between antiarrhythmic or antiparkinson class and polypharmacy regimen (≥7 medications seem to represent a risk association for injuries (p = 0.024; OR = 4.4; CI 95% 1.21 - 15.36. Conclusion This work reinforces the importance of routine medication reviews, especially in residents exposed to polypharmacy regimens that include antiarrhythmics or antiparkinson drugs, in order to reduce the risk of fall-related injuries during nursing home stays.

Effects of parenting interventions for at-risk parents with infants: a systematic review and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Rayce, Signe B; Rasmussen, Ida S; Klest, Sihu K; Patras, Joshua; Pontoppidan, Maiken

2017-12-27

Infancy is a critical stage of life, and a secure relationship with caring and responsive caregivers is crucial for healthy infant development. Early parenting interventions aim to support families in which infants are at risk of developmental harm. Our objective is to systematically review the effects of parenting interventions on child development and on parent-child relationship for at-risk families with infants aged 0-12 months. This is a systematic review and meta-analyses. We extracted publications from 10 databases in June 2013, January 2015 and June 2016, and supplemented with grey literature and hand search. We assessed risk of bias, calculated effect sizes and conducted meta-analyses. (1) Randomised controlled trials of structured psychosocial interventions offered to at-risk families with infants aged 0-12 months in Western Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, (2) interventions with a minimum of three sessions and at least half of these delivered postnatally and (3) outcomes reported for child development or parent-child relationship. Sixteen studies were included. Meta-analyses were conducted on seven outcomes represented in 13 studies. Parenting interventions significantly improved child behaviour ( d =0.14; 95% CI 0.03 to 0.26), parent-child relationship ( d =0.44; 95% CI 0.09 to 0.80) and maternal sensitivity ( d =0.46; 95% CI 0.26 to 0.65) postintervention. There were no significant effects on cognitive development ( d= 0.13; 95% CI -0.08 to 0.41), internalising behaviour ( d= 0.16; 95% CI -0.03 to 0.33) or externalising behaviour ( d= 0.16; 95% CI -0.01 to 0.30) post-intervention. At long-term follow-up we found no significant effect on child behaviour ( d= 0.15; 95% CI -0.03 to 0.31). Interventions offered to at-risk families in the first year of the child's life appear to improve child behaviour, parent-child relationship and maternal sensitivity post-intervention, but not child cognitive

E-cigarette use is differentially related to smoking onset among lower risk adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Wills, Thomas A; Sargent, James D; Gibbons, Frederick X; Pagano, Ian; Schweitzer, Rebecca

2016-09-01

E-cigarette use has been linked to onset of cigarette smoking among adolescents, but some commentators have suggested that this simply reflects high-risk adolescents being more likely to use e-cigarettes and to smoke. We tested whether the effect of e-cigarette use for smoking onset differs for youth who are lower versus higher on propensity to smoke. School-based survey with a longitudinal sample of 1136 students (9th-11th graders, mean age 14.7 years) in Hawaii, initially surveyed in 2013 (T1) and followed up 1 year later (T2). We assessed e-cigarette use, propensity to smoke based on 3 psychosocial factors known to predict smoking (rebelliousness, parental support and willingness to smoke), and cigarette smoking status. Analyses based on T1 never-smokers tested the relation of T1 e-cigarette use to T2 smoking status for participants lower versus higher on T1 propensity to smoke. The relation between T1 e-cigarette use and T2 smoking onset was stronger among participants with lower levels of rebelliousness and willingness and higher levels of parental support. A multiple logistic regression analysis with T2 smoking as the criterion tested the cross-product of T1 e-cigarette use and T1 smoking propensity score; the interaction (OR=0.88, p=0.01) indicated a significantly larger effect for smoking onset among lower risk youth. The results indicate e-cigarette use is a risk factor for smoking onset, not just a marker of high risk for smoking. This study provides evidence that e-cigarettes are recruiting lower risk adolescents to smoking, which has public health implications. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

The derivation and application of a risk related value for saving a statistical life

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jackson, D.; Stone, D.; Butler, G.G.; Mcglynn, G.

2004-01-01

A risk related value of spend for saving a statistical life (VSSSL) is proposed for cost-benefit studies across the power generation sector, and the nuclear industry in particular. An upper bound on VSSSL is set based on the UK government standard of around pound 1 M or, in particular circumstances, pound 2 M and the observation that excessive spend (probably of the order of more than pound 5 M per statistical life) will actually cost lives. Above a risk of 10 -3 a -1 it is assumed that VSSSL approaches maximum sustainable value around pound 2 M, whereas below a risk of 10 -9 a -1 the value of further risk reduction approaches zero. At risks around 10 -6 a -1 it is proposed that an appropriate VSSL lies in the range pound 0.25 M to pound 1 M. With respect to radiological protection, it is suggested that where collective doses are dominated by average individual doses no more than a few μSv, the detriment arising from a man-Sv can be valued at about pound 15 k to pound 60 k. It is further suggested that for individual dose contributions below 0.01 μSv (representing a risk equivalent to less than 10 -9 ) a low residual VSSSL should be applied in cost-benefit analyses based on collective dose exposures. (author)

Mediators of the Relation Between Community Violence and Sexual Risk Behavior Among Adults Attending a Public Sexually Transmitted Infection Clinic.

Science.gov (United States)

Senn, Theresa E; Walsh, Jennifer L; Carey, Michael P

2016-07-01

Prior research shows that violence is associated with sexual risk behavior, but little is known about the relation between community violence (i.e., violence that is witnessed or experienced in one's neighborhood) and sexual risk behavior. To better understand contextual influences on HIV risk behavior, we asked 508 adult patients attending a publicly funded STI clinic in the U.S. (54 % male, M age = 27.93, 68 % African American) who were participating in a larger trial to complete a survey assessing exposure to community violence, sexual risk behavior, and potential mediators of the community violence-sexual risk behavior relation (i.e., mental health, substance use, and experiencing intimate partner violence). A separate sample of participants from the same trial completed measures of sexual behavior norms, which were aggregated to create measures of census tract sexual behavior norms. Data analyses controlling for socioeconomic status revealed that higher levels of community violence were associated with more sexual partners for men and with more episodes of unprotected sex with non-steady partners for women. For both men and women, substance use and mental health mediated the community violence-sexual risk behavior relation; in addition, for men only, experiencing intimate partner violence also mediated this relation. These results confirm that, for individuals living in communities with high levels of violence, sexual risk reduction interventions need to address intimate partner violence, substance use, and mental health to be optimally effective.

Cancer-related fatigue--mechanisms, risk factors, and treatments.

Science.gov (United States)

Bower, Julienne E

2014-10-01

Fatigue is one of the most common adverse effects of cancer that might persist for years after treatment completion in otherwise healthy survivors. Cancer-related fatigue causes disruption in all aspects of quality of life and might be a risk factor of reduced survival. The prevalence and course of fatigue in patients with cancer have been well characterized and there is growing understanding of the underlying biological mechanisms. Inflammation seems to have a key role in fatigue before, during, and after cancer-treatment. However, there is a considerable variability in the presentation of cancer-related fatigue, much of which is not explained by disease-related or treatment-related characteristics, suggesting that host factors might be important in the development and persistence of this symptom. Indeed, longitudinal studies have identified genetic, biological, psychosocial, and behavioural risk factors associated with cancer-related fatigue. Although no current gold-standard treatment for fatigue is available, a variety of intervention approaches have shown beneficial effects in randomized controlled trials, including physical activity, psychosocial, mind-body, and pharmacological treatments. This Review describes the mechanisms, risk factors, and possible interventions for cancer-related fatigue, focusing on recent longitudinal studies and randomized trials that have targeted fatigued patients.

Fall-related injuries in a nursing home setting: is polypharmacy a risk factor?

OpenAIRE

Baranzini, Federico; Diurni, Marcello; Ceccon, Francesca; Poloni, Nicola; Cazzamalli, Sara; Costantini, Chiara; Colli, Cristiano; Greco, Laura; Callegari, Camilla

2009-01-01

Abstract Background Polypharmacy is regarded as an important risk factor for fallingand several studies and meta-analyses have shown an increased fall risk in users of diuretics, type 1a antiarrhythmics, digoxin and psychotropic agents. In particular, recent evidence has shown that fall risk is associated with the use of polypharmacy regimens that include at least one established fall risk-increasing drug, rather than with polypharmacy per se. We studied the role of polypharmacy and the role ...

Waterborne disease-related risk perceptions in the Sonora River basin, Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Morua, Agustin Robles; Halvorsen, Kathleen E; Mayer, Alex S

2011-05-01

Waterborne disease is estimated to cause about 10% of all diseases worldwide. However, related risk perceptions are not well understood, particularly in the developing world where waterborne disease is an enormous problem. We focus on understanding risk perceptions related to these issues in a region within northern Mexico. Our findings show how waterborne disease problems and solutions are understood in eight small communities along a highly contaminated river system. We found major differences in risk perceptions between health professionals, government officials, and lay citizens. Health professionals believed that a high level of human-waste-related risk existed within the region. Few officials and lay citizens shared this belief. In addition, few officials and lay citizens were aware of poor wastewater-management-related disease outbreaks and water contamination. Finally, aside from health professionals, a few interviewees understood the importance of basic hygiene and water treatment measures that could help to prevent disease. Our results add to the literature on environmentally-related risk perceptions in the developing world. We discuss recommendations for improving future human-wastewater-related risk communication within the region. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Emerging Risks in the Dutch Food Chain report on project 2: Application of indicator analyses on several critical points in the salmon production chain and identification of related data sources

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schelvis-Smit, A.A.M.; Poelman, M.; Schneider, O.

2008-01-01

An indicator analysis was performed on the fish production chain by assessing the indicators which may be of importance for the detection of emerging risks. The indicators were embedded in a “risk pathway”, in which the relations between different indicators could be illustrated. The risk pathways

Risk sharing relations and enforcement mechanisms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Barr, A.; Dekker, M.; Fafchamps, M.

2008-01-01

We investigate whether the set of available enforcement mechanisms affects the formation of risk sharing relations by applying dyadic regression analysis to data from a specifically designed behavioural experiment, two surveys and a genealogical mapping exercise. During the experiment participants

Autoantibodies to IA-2beta improve diabetes risk assessment in high-risk relatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Achenbach, P; Bonifacio, E; Williams, A J K

2008-01-01

-positive participants (median age 12.1 years; 57% male), 113 developed diabetes (5 year cumulative risk 56%), and 148 were also GADA-positive and IAA-positive (4Ab-positive). IA2betaA were detected in 137 (65%) ICA/IA2A-positive participants and were associated with an increased 5 year diabetes risk (IA2beta......A-positive 65 vs 39% in IA2betaA-negative, p=0.0002). The effect was most marked in 4Ab-positive relatives (72% vs 52%, p=0.003). Metabolic testing further refined risk assessment. Among 101 4Ab-positive relatives with IA2betaA, the 5 year risk was 94% in those with a low FPIR (vs 50% in those with a normal...... FPIR, p4Ab/IA2betaA-positive participants with a low FPIR was 1.5 years. Multivariate analysis confirmed IA2betaA status, antibody number, young...

Company Risk-related Disclosures in a Code Law Country: A Synopsis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonas Oliveira

2013-03-01

Full Text Available This synopsis provides a concise historical contextualisation of current risk disclosure issues, highlights major factors influencing contemporary risk reporting practices, and engages in a reflective overview of four recently published papers on aspects of corporate risk-related disclosures in a code law country, Portugal. The breadthand depth of our analysis is modest. Nonetheless we report findings indicating that risk-related disclosures are inadequate, lack transparency, and compound the difficulty of assessing the risk profile of a company. We contend that recent regulation initiatives have been of dubious effectiveness in improving the quality of riskinformation disclosed. In respect of the Portuguese context, we find that companies disclose risk-related information principally to reduce agency costs and to enhance corporate reputation. We contend that enhanced corporate accountability would be more likely to ensue if further disclosures of relevant risk-related information were mandated. One mechanism to do so would be through regulations recommended by the International Integrated Reporting Committee (IIRC.

Caffeine-Related Deaths: Manner of Deaths and Categories at Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Cappelletti, Simone; Piacentino, Daria; Fineschi, Vittorio; Frati, Paola; Cipolloni, Luigi; Aromatario, Mariarosaria

2018-05-14

Caffeine is the most widely consumed psychoactive compound worldwide. It is mostly found in coffee, tea, energizing drinks and in some drugs. However, it has become really easy to obtain pure caffeine (powder or tablets) on the Internet markets. Mechanisms of action are dose-dependent. Serious toxicities such as seizure and cardiac arrhythmias, seen with caffeine plasma concentrations of 15 mg/L or higher, have caused poisoning or, rarely, death; otherwise concentrations of 3⁻6 mg/kg are considered safe. Caffeine concentrations of 80⁻100 mg/L are considered lethal. The aim of this systematic review, performed following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement for the identification and selection of studies, is to review fatal cases in which caffeine has been recognized as the only cause of death in order to identify potential categories at risk. A total of 92 cases have been identified. These events happened more frequently in infants, psychiatric patients, and athletes. Although caffeine intoxication is relatively uncommon, raising awareness about its lethal consequences could be useful for both clinicians and pathologists to identify possible unrecognized cases and prevent related severe health conditions and deaths.

International comparative analyses of healthcare risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Niuyun; Wang, Li; Zhou, Jun; Yuan, Qiang; Zhang, Zongjiu; Li, Youping; Liang, Minghui; Cheng, Lan; Gao, Guangming; Cui, Xiaohui

2011-02-01

Interpretation of the growing body of global literature on health care risk is compromised by a lack of common understanding and language. This series of articles aims to comprehensively compare laws and regulations, institutional management, and administration of incidence reporting systems on medical risk management in the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Australia, and Taiwan, so as to provide evidence and recommendations for health care risk management policy in China. We searched the official websites of the healthcare risk management agencies of the four countries and one district for laws, regulatory documents, research reports, reviews and evaluation forms concerned with healthcare risk management and assessment. Descriptive comparative analysis was performed on relevant documents. A total of 146 documents were included in this study, including 2 laws (1.4%), 17 policy documents (11.6%), 41 guidance documents (28.1%), 37 reviews (25.3%), and 49 documents giving general information (33.6%). The United States government implemented one law and one rule of patient safety management, while the United Kingdom and Australia each issued professional guidances on patient safety improvement. The four countries implemented patient safety management policy on four different levels: national, state/province, hospital, and non-governmental organization. The four countries and one district adopted four levels of patient safety management, and the administration modes can be divided into an "NGO-led mode" represented by the United States and Canada and a "government-led mode" represented by the United Kingdom, Australia, and Taiwan. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd and Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University.

Accounting for Heterogeneity in Relative Treatment Effects for Use in Cost-Effectiveness Models and Value-of-Information Analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Welton, Nicky J; Soares, Marta O; Palmer, Stephen; Ades, Anthony E; Harrison, David; Shankar-Hari, Manu; Rowan, Kathy M

2015-07-01

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) models are routinely used to inform health care policy. Key model inputs include relative effectiveness of competing treatments, typically informed by meta-analysis. Heterogeneity is ubiquitous in meta-analysis, and random effects models are usually used when there is variability in effects across studies. In the absence of observed treatment effect modifiers, various summaries from the random effects distribution (random effects mean, predictive distribution, random effects distribution, or study-specific estimate [shrunken or independent of other studies]) can be used depending on the relationship between the setting for the decision (population characteristics, treatment definitions, and other contextual factors) and the included studies. If covariates have been measured that could potentially explain the heterogeneity, then these can be included in a meta-regression model. We describe how covariates can be included in a network meta-analysis model and how the output from such an analysis can be used in a CEA model. We outline a model selection procedure to help choose between competing models and stress the importance of clinical input. We illustrate the approach with a health technology assessment of intravenous immunoglobulin for the management of adult patients with severe sepsis in an intensive care setting, which exemplifies how risk of bias information can be incorporated into CEA models. We show that the results of the CEA and value-of-information analyses are sensitive to the model and highlight the importance of sensitivity analyses when conducting CEA in the presence of heterogeneity. The methods presented extend naturally to heterogeneity in other model inputs, such as baseline risk. © The Author(s) 2015.

Disentangling the effects of forage, social rank, and risk on movement autocorrelation of elephants using Fourier and wavelet analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Wittemyer, George; Polansky, Leo; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain; Getz, Wayne M

2008-12-09

The internal state of an individual-as it relates to thirst, hunger, fear, or reproductive drive-can be inferred by referencing points on its movement path to external environmental and sociological variables. Using time-series approaches to characterize autocorrelative properties of step-length movements collated every 3 h for seven free-ranging African elephants, we examined the influence of social rank, predation risk, and seasonal variation in resource abundance on periodic properties of movement. The frequency domain methods of Fourier and wavelet analyses provide compact summaries of temporal autocorrelation and show both strong diurnal and seasonal based periodicities in the step-length time series. This autocorrelation is weaker during the wet season, indicating random movements are more common when ecological conditions are good. Periodograms of socially dominant individuals are consistent across seasons, whereas subordinate individuals show distinct differences diverging from that of dominants during the dry season. We link temporally localized statistical properties of movement to landscape features and find that diurnal movement correlation is more common within protected wildlife areas, and multiday movement correlations found among lower ranked individuals are typically outside of protected areas where predation risks are greatest. A frequency-related spatial analysis of movement-step lengths reveal that rest cycles related to the spatial distribution of critical resources (i.e., forage and water) are responsible for creating the observed patterns. Our approach generates unique information regarding the spatial-temporal interplay between environmental and individual characteristics, providing an original approach for understanding the movement ecology of individual animals and the spatial organization of animal populations.

Malaria in Africa: vector species' niche models and relative risk maps.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Moffett

2007-09-01

Full Text Available A central theoretical goal of epidemiology is the construction of spatial models of disease prevalence and risk, including maps for the potential spread of infectious disease. We provide three continent-wide maps representing the relative risk of malaria in Africa based on ecological niche models of vector species and risk analysis at a spatial resolution of 1 arc-minute (9 185 275 cells of approximately 4 sq km. Using a maximum entropy method we construct niche models for 10 malaria vector species based on species occurrence records since 1980, 19 climatic variables, altitude, and land cover data (in 14 classes. For seven vectors (Anopheles coustani, A. funestus, A. melas, A. merus, A. moucheti, A. nili, and A. paludis these are the first published niche models. We predict that Central Africa has poor habitat for both A. arabiensis and A. gambiae, and that A. quadriannulatus and A. arabiensis have restricted habitats in Southern Africa as claimed by field experts in criticism of previous models. The results of the niche models are incorporated into three relative risk models which assume different ecological interactions between vector species. The "additive" model assumes no interaction; the "minimax" model assumes maximum relative risk due to any vector in a cell; and the "competitive exclusion" model assumes the relative risk that arises from the most suitable vector for a cell. All models include variable anthrophilicity of vectors and spatial variation in human population density. Relative risk maps are produced from these models. All models predict that human population density is the critical factor determining malaria risk. Our method of constructing relative risk maps is equally general. We discuss the limits of the relative risk maps reported here, and the additional data that are required for their improvement. The protocol developed here can be used for any other vector-borne disease.

Relative risk analysis of several manufactured nanomaterials: an insurance industry context.

Science.gov (United States)

Robichaud, Christine Ogilvie; Tanzil, Dicksen; Weilenmann, Ulrich; Wiesner, Mark R

2005-11-15

A relative risk assessment is presented for the industrial fabrication of several nanomaterials. The production processes for five nanomaterials were selected for this analysis, based on their current or near-term potential for large-scale production and commercialization: single-walled carbon nanotubes, bucky balls (C60), one variety of quantum dots, alumoxane nanoparticles, and nano-titanium dioxide. The assessment focused on the activities surrounding the fabrication of nanomaterials, exclusive of any impacts or risks with the nanomaterials themselves. A representative synthesis method was selected for each nanomaterial based on its potential for scaleup. A list of input materials, output materials, and waste streams for each step of fabrication was developed and entered into a database that included key process characteristics such as temperature and pressure. The physical-chemical properties and quantities of the inventoried materials were used to assess relative risk based on factors such as volatility, carcinogenicity, flammability, toxicity, and persistence. These factors were first used to qualitatively rank risk, then combined using an actuarial protocol developed by the insurance industry for the purpose of calculating insurance premiums for chemical manufacturers. This protocol ranks three categories of risk relative to a 100 point scale (where 100 represents maximum risk): incident risk, normal operations risk, and latent contamination risk. Results from this analysis determined that relative environmental risk from manufacturing each of these five materials was comparatively low in relation to other common industrial manufacturing processes.

Structural Relation Pattern between Deviant Personality Traits, Risk Perception and Treatment Motivation in People with Substance Dependency: The Mediating Role of Risk Perception

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S Basharpoor

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Objective: The current study was conducted to investigate the pattern of structural relations between deviant personality traits, risk perception and treatment motivation in people with substance dependency. Method: A descriptive- correlational method was used in this study. All the drug addicts referring to Ardabil centers of addiction treatment in second half of 2014 constituted the statistical population of this study. The number of 140 individuals from this population was selected via cluster sampling and responded to stages of change readiness and treatment eagerness scale, personality deviance scale, and cognitive appraisal of risky events (CARE questionnaire. Results: The results showed that risk perception and three components of treatment motivation are negatively correlated with hostile thoughts, denigration of others, low self-confidence, dependency, submissiveness; however, risk perception was positively associated with the three components of treatment motivation. The results of regression analyses also revealed that 53% variance of recognition, 44 % variance of ambivalence, and 47 % of variance of step taking were explained by deviant personality traits. Model fitness indexed confirmed the path of deviant personality traits to treatment motivation via the mediating role of risk perception. Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest that low risk perception is one of the explanatory pathways for the relationship between deviant personality traits and treatment motivation.

Midlife Work-Related Stress Increases Dementia Risk in Later Life: The CAIDE 30-Year Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sindi, Shireen; Hagman, Göran; Håkansson, Krister; Kulmala, Jenni; Nilsen, Charlotta; Kåreholt, Ingemar; Soininen, Hilkka; Solomon, Alina; Kivipelto, Miia

2017-10-01

To investigate the associations between midlife work-related stress and mild cognitive impairment (MCI), dementia, and Alzheimer's disease later in life, in a large representative population. Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia (CAIDE) study participants were randomly selected from independent population-based surveys (mean age 50 years). A random sample of 2,000 individuals was invited for two reexaminations including cognitive tests (at mean age 71 and mean age 78), and 1,511 subjects participated in at least one reexamination (mean follow-up 28.5 years). Work-related stress was measured using two questions on work demands that were administered in midlife. Analyses adjusted for important confounders. Higher levels of midlife work-related stress were associated with higher risk of MCI (odds ratio [OR], 1.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-1.76), dementia (OR, 1.53; CI, 1.13-2.07), and Alzheimer's disease (OR, 1.55; CI, 1.19-2.36) at the first follow-up among the CAIDE participants. Results remained significant after adjusting for several possible confounders. Work-related stress was not associated with MCI and dementia during the extended follow-up. Midlife work-related stress increases the risk for MCI, dementia, and Alzheimer's disease in later life. The association was not seen after the extended follow-up possibly reflecting selective survival/participation, heterogeneity in dementia among the oldest old, and a critical time window for the effects of midlife stress. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Cancer-related fatigue: Mechanisms, risk factors, and treatments

Science.gov (United States)

Bower, Julienne E.

2015-01-01

Fatigue is one of the most common and distressing side effects of cancer and its treatment, and may persist for years after treatment completion in otherwise healthy survivors. Cancer-related fatigue causes disruption in all aspects of quality of life and may be a risk factor for reduced survival. The prevalence and course of fatigue in cancer patients has been well characterized, and there is growing understanding of underlying biological mechanisms. Inflammation has emerged as a key biological pathway for cancer-related fatigue, with studies documenting links between markers of inflammation and fatigue before, during, and particularly after treatment. There is considerable variability in the experience of cancer-related fatigue that is not explained by disease- or treatment-related characteristics, suggesting that host factors may play an important role in the development and persistence of this symptom. Indeed, longitudinal studies have begun to identify genetic, biological, psychosocial, and behavioral risk factors for cancer-related fatigue. Given the multi-factorial nature of cancer-related fatigue, a variety of intervention approaches have been examined in randomized controlled trials, including physical activity, psychosocial, mind-body, and pharmacological treatments. Although there is currently no gold standard for treating fatigue, several of these approaches have shown beneficial effects and can be recommended to patients. This report provides a state of the science review of mechanisms, risk factors, and interventions for cancer-related fatigue, with a focus on recent longitudinal studies and randomized trials that have targeted fatigued patients. PMID:25113839

Effects of trust and governance on relational risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nooteboom, B.; Berger, J.; Noorderhaven, N.G.

In transaction cost economics, foist has been treated as redundant or even misleading. This study tested the effects of governance and trust the risk perceived by agents of firms in alliances. Two dimensions of relational risk were assessed: the probability that something will go wrong and the size

Gender differences in the relations between work-related physical and psychosocial risk factors and musculoskeletal complaints

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hooftman, W.E.; Poppel, M.N.M. van; Beek, A.J. van der; Bongers, P.M.; Mechelen, W. van

2004-01-01

Gender differences in the prevalence of musculoskeletal complaints might be explained by differences in the effect of exposure to work-related physical and psychosocial risk factors. A systematic review was conducted to examine gender differences in the relations between these risk factors and

Swedish high-school pupils’ attitudes towards drugs in relation to drug usage, impulsiveness and other risk factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fariba Mousavi

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Background. Illicit drug use influences people’s lives and elicits unwanted behaviour. Current research shows that there is an increase in young people’s drug use in Sweden. The aim was to investigate Swedish high-school pupils’ attitudes, impulsiveness and gender differences linked to drug use. Risk and protective factors relative to drug use were also a focus of interest.Method. High school pupils (n = 146 aged 17–21 years, responded to the Adolescent Health and Development Inventory, Barratt Impulsiveness Scale and Knowledge, and the Attitudes and Beliefs. Direct logistic, multiple regression analyses, and Multivariate Analysis of Variance were used to analyze the data.Results. Positive Attitudes towards drugs were predicted by risk factors (odds ratio = 37.31 and gender (odds ratio = .32. Risk factors (odds ratio = 46.89, positive attitudes towards drugs (odds ratio = 4.63, and impulsiveness (odds ratio = 1.11 predicted drug usage. Risk factors dimensions Family, Friends and Individual Characteristic were positively related to impulsiveness among drug users. Moreover, although boys reported using drugs to a greater extent, girls expressed more positive attitude towards drugs and even reported more impulsiveness than boys.Conclusion. This study reinforces the notion that research ought to focus on gender differences relative to pro-drug attitudes along with testing for differences in the predictors of girls’ and boys’ delinquency and impulsiveness. Positive attitudes towards drugs among adolescents seem to be part of a vicious circle including risk factors, such as friendly drug environments (e.g., friends who use drugs and unsupportive family environments, individual characteristics, and impulsiveness.

The practical impact of differential item functioning analyses in a health-related quality of life instrument

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scott, Neil W; Fayers, Peter M; Aaronson, Neil K

2009-01-01

Differential item functioning (DIF) analyses are commonly used to evaluate health-related quality of life (HRQoL) instruments. There is, however, a lack of consensus as to how to assess the practical impact of statistically significant DIF results.......Differential item functioning (DIF) analyses are commonly used to evaluate health-related quality of life (HRQoL) instruments. There is, however, a lack of consensus as to how to assess the practical impact of statistically significant DIF results....

Association of serum microRNAs with islet autoimmunity, disease progression and metabolic impairment in relatives at risk of type 1 diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Snowhite, Isaac V; Allende, Gloria; Sosenko, Jay; Pastori, Ricardo L; Messinger Cayetano, Shari; Pugliese, Alberto

2017-08-01

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are key regulators of gene expression and novel biomarkers for many diseases. We investigated the hypothesis that serum levels of some miRNAs would be associated with islet autoimmunity and/or progression to type 1 diabetes. We measured levels of 93 miRNAs most commonly detected in serum. This retrospective cohort study included 150 autoantibody-positive and 150 autoantibody-negative family-matched siblings enrolled in the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study. This was a young cohort (mean age = 11 years), and most autoantibody-positive relatives were at high risk because they had multiple autoantibodies, with 39/150 (26%, progressors) developing type 1 diabetes within an average 8.7 months of follow-up. We analysed miRNA levels in relation to autoantibody status, future development of diabetes and OGTT C-peptide and glucose indices of disease progression. Fifteen miRNAs were differentially expressed when comparing autoantibody-positive/negative siblings (range -2.5 to 1.3-fold). But receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated low specificity and sensitivity. Seven additional miRNAs were differentially expressed among autoantibody-positive relatives according to disease progression; ROC returned significant AUC values and identified miRNA cut-off levels associated with an increased risk of disease in both cross-sectional and survival analyses. Levels of several miRNAs showed significant correlations (r values range 0.22-0.55) with OGTT outcomes. miR-21-3p, miR-29a-3p and miR-424-5p had the most robust associations. Serum levels of selected miRNAs are associated with disease progression and confer additional risk of the development of type 1 diabetes in young autoantibody-positive relatives. Further studies, including longitudinal assessments, are warranted to further define miRNA biomarkers for prediction of disease risk and progression.

Personality and risk perception in transport.

Science.gov (United States)

Fyhri, Aslak; Backer-Grøndahl, Agathe

2012-11-01

Within research on individual variations in risk perception, personality has been suggested as one important factor. In the present study, personality traits (44 items from the Big Five inventory) were investigated in relation to risk perception in transport and transport behavioural adaptations. In a sample of 312 participants, we found that the personality trait 'emotional stability versus neuroticism' was negatively correlated with risk perception (operationalised as "thinking about the possibility") of an accident (-0.38) and an unpleasant incident, such as crime, violence, robbery (-0.25). 'Agreeableness' was also negatively related to risk perception, however first and foremost in relation to perceived risk for unpleasant incidents on transport modes in which one interacts with other people (0.25). Moreover, regression analyses showed that 'emotional stability' was a significant predictor of behavioural adaptations on bus. Regression analyses explained between 17 and 26 percent of variance in behavioural adaptations. The results show that different groups of people vary systematically in their perception of risk in transport. Furthermore, these differences are manifest as a difference in risk-preventive behaviour at a strategic level, i.e. as decisions about avoiding risky situations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Work-related stress, inability to relax after work and risk of adult asthma: a population-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Loerbroks, A; Gadinger, M C; Bosch, J A; Stürmer, T; Amelang, M

2010-10-01

There is an extensive literature linking stressful work conditions to adverse health outcomes. Notwithstanding, the relationship with asthma has not been examined, although various other measures of psychological stress have been associated with asthma. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the relation between work stress and asthma prevalence and incidence. We used data from a population-based cohort study (n = 5114 at baseline in 1992-1995 and n = 4010 at follow-up in 2002/2003). Asthma was measured by self-reports. Two scales that assessed psychologically adverse work conditions were extracted from a list of work-condition items by factor analysis (these scales were termed 'work stress' and 'inability to relax after work'). For each scale, the derived score was employed both as continuous z-score and as categorized variable in analyses. Associations with asthma were estimated by prevalence ratios (PRs) and risk ratios (RRs) using Poisson regression with a log-link function adjusting for demographics, health-related lifestyles, body mass index and family history of asthma. Analyses were restricted to those in employment (n = 3341). Work stress and inability to relax z-scores were positively associated with asthma prevalence (PR = 1.15, 95%CI = 0.97, 1.36 and PR = 1.43, 95%CI = 1.12, 1.83, respectively). Prospective analyses using z-scores showed that for each 1 standard deviation increase in work stress and inability to relax, the risk of asthma increased by approximately 40% (RR for work stress = 1.46, 95%CI = 1.06, 2.00; RR for inability to relax = 1.39, 95%CI = 1.01, 1.91). Similar patterns of associations were observed in analyses of categorized exposures. This is the first study to show a cross-sectional and longitudinal association of work stress with asthma.

The implications of the relative risk for road mortality on road safety programmes in Qatar.

Science.gov (United States)

Consunji, Rafael J; Peralta, Ruben R; Al-Thani, Hassan; Latifi, Rifat

2015-04-01

The epidemiology of road deaths and in particular the relative risk for road mortality (RRRM) in Qatar has not been fully defined. This study will analyse and compare the proportionate mortality and age-specific death rates from road traffic injuries (RTIs) and make recommendations for targeted injury prevention programmes for road safety in Qatar. Data from the Qatar Statistics Authority (QSA), for the year 2010, was collected and analysed. All deaths classified as 'ICD-10 (V89) Motor- or Nonmotor-Vehicle, Accident Type of Vehicle Unspecified' were included. There were 247 RTI related deaths in Qatar in 2010. An overall death rate was computed at 14.4 deaths per 100 000 population. The RRRM varied over 10 times among different populations with Qatari males (QM) having an increased RRRM from 10 years of age, those aged 20-29 years had the highest RRRM of 10.2. The lowest RRRM was for Qatari females who did not have a single reported road fatality in 2010. Populations with a significantly elevated RRRM (ie, RRRM>1.0) were non-Qatari men older than 50 years and Qatari males from the age of 10 onward. Proven and definite programmes must be implemented to reduce these unnecessary deaths among the populations at the highest risk. Multidisciplinary approaches must be implemented and their efficacy evaluated. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Risk of vertebral insufficiency fractures in relation to compressive strength predicted by quantitative computed tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biggemann, M.; Hilweg, D.; Seidel, S.; Horst, M.; Brinckmann, P.

1991-01-01

Vertebral insufficiency fractures may result from excessive loading of normal and routine loading of osteoporotic spines. Fractures occur when the mechanical load exceeds the vertebral compressive strength, i.e., the maximum load a vertebra can tolerate. Vertebral compressive strength is determined by trabecular bone density and the size of end-plate area. Both parameters can be measured non-invasively by quanti-tative computed tomography (QCT). In 75 patients compressive strength (i.e., trabecular bone density and endplate area) of the vertebra L3 was determined using QCT. In addition, conventional radiographs of the spines were analysed for the prevalence of insufficiency fractures in each case. By relating fracture prevalence to strength, 3 fracture risk groups were found: a high-risk group with strength values of L3 5 kN and a fracture risk near 0 percent. Biomechanical measurements and model calculations indicate that spinal loads of 3 to 4 kN at L3/4 will be common in everyday activities. These data and the results described above suggest that spines with strength values of L3<3 kN are at an extremely high risk of insufficiency fractures in daily life. Advantages of fracture risk assessment by strength determination over risk estimation based on clinically used trabecular bone density measurements are discussed. (author). 18 refs.; 4 figs

Risk and Protective Factors for Intimate Partner Violence Against Women: Systematic Review and Meta-analyses of Prospective-Longitudinal Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Yakubovich, Alexa R; Stöckl, Heidi; Murray, Joseph; Melendez-Torres, G J; Steinert, Janina I; Glavin, Calla E Y; Humphreys, David K

2018-07-01

The estimated lifetime prevalence of physical or sexual intimate partner violence (IPV) is 30% among women worldwide. Understanding risk and protective factors is essential for designing effective prevention strategies. To quantify the associations between prospective-longitudinal risk and protective factors and IPV and identify evidence gaps. We conducted systematic searches in 16 databases including MEDLINE and PsycINFO from inception to June 2016. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42016039213). We included published and unpublished studies available in English that prospectively analyzed any risk or protective factor(s) for self-reported IPV victimization among women and controlled for at least 1 other variable. Three reviewers were involved in study screening. One reviewer extracted estimates of association and study characteristics from each study and 2 reviewers independently checked a random subset of extractions. We assessed study quality with the Cambridge Quality Checklists. When studies investigated the same risk or protective factor using similar measures, we computed pooled odds ratios (ORs) by using random-effects meta-analyses. We summarized heterogeneity with I 2 and τ 2 . We synthesized all estimates of association, including those not meta-analyzed, by using harvest plots to illustrate evidence gaps and trends toward negative or positive associations. Of 18 608 studies identified, 60 were included and 35 meta-analyzed. Most studies were based in the United States. The strongest evidence for modifiable risk factors for IPV against women were unplanned pregnancy (OR = 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.20, 1.31) and having parents with less than a high-school education (OR = 1.55; 95% CI = 1.10, 2.17). Being older (OR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.93, 0.98) or married (OR = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.87, 0.99) were protective. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic, meta-analytic review of all risk and

Combined effects of NQO1 Pro187Ser or SULT1A1 Arg213His polymorphism and smoking on bladder cancer risk: Two meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiao-Chun; Wang, Jian; Tao, Hui-Hui; Zhang, Chao; Xu, Li-Fa

2017-07-14

Objectives: Cigarette smoking is the major risk factor of bladder cancer via exposure to chemical carcinogens. Nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADP+): quinine oxidoreductase 1 (NQO1) and sulfotransferase 1A1 (SULT1A1) have been reported to involve in the metabolism of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and aromatic amines. Therefore, the risk of bladder cancer (BC) may be influenced by polymorphisms in the genes that modulate metabolic detoxification in particular by interacting with cigarette smoking. Considering the limited power by the individual studies with a relatively small sample size, especially when analyzing the combined effect of polymorphisms in NQO1 and SULT1A1 genes and smoking, these 2 meta-analyses have aimed to clarify the combined effects of them on BC risk by integrating related studies. Two meta-analyses included 1341 cases and 1346 controls concerning NQO1 Pro187Ser and smoking, and 1921 cases and 1882 controls on SULT1A1 Arg213His and smoking were performed. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used for assessing the strength of the association. The result has demonstrated that smokers with NQO1 Pro/Ser or Ser/Ser genotypes have a prominent association with the risk of BC as compared with non-smokers with NQO1 Pro/Pro genotype, with OR equal to 3.71 (95% CI: 2.87-4.78, pheterogeneity = 0.376). Besides, smokers carrying SULT1A1 Arg/Arg genotypes were observed to confer 2.38 fold increased risk of BC (95% CI: 1.44-3.93, pheterogeneity = 0.001) when compared with non-smokers with SULT1A1 Arg/Arg or His/His genotypes. These findings have suggested that the NQO1 Pro187Ser or SULT1A1 Arg213His polymorphism combination with smoking significantly confer susceptibility to BC. Int J Occup Med Environ Health 2017;30(5):791-802. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

Combined effects of NQO1 Pro187Ser or SULT1A1 Arg213His polymorphism and smoking on bladder cancer risk: Two meta-analyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao-Chun Wang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Objectives: Objectives: Cigarette smoking is the major risk factor of bladder cancer via exposure to chemical carcinogens. Nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADP+: quinine oxidoreductase 1 (NQO1 and sulfotransferase 1A1 (SULT1A1 have been reported to involve in the metabolism of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs and aromatic amines. Therefore, the risk of bladder cancer (BC may be influenced by polymorphisms in the genes that modulate metabolic detoxification in particular by interacting with cigarette smoking. Considering the limited power by the individual studies with a relatively small sample size, especially when analyzing the combined effect of polymorphisms in NQO1 and SULT1A1 genes and smoking, these 2 meta-analyses have aimed to clarify the combined effects of them on BC risk by integrating related studies. Material and Methods: Two meta-analyses included 1341 cases and 1346 controls concerning NQO1 Pro187Ser and smoking, and 1921 cases and 1882 controls on SULT1A1 Arg213His and smoking were performed. Odds ratios (OR and 95% confidence intervals (CI were used for assessing the strength of the association. Results: The result has demonstrated that smokers with NQO1 Pro/Ser or Ser/Ser genotypes have a prominent association with the risk of BC as compared with non-smokers with NQO1 Pro/Pro genotype, with OR equal to 3.71 (95% CI: 2.87–4.78, pheterogeneity = 0.376. Besides, smokers carrying SULT1A1 Arg/Arg genotypes were observed to confer 2.38 fold increased risk of BC (95% CI: 1.44–3.93, pheterogeneity = 0.001 when compared with non-smokers with SULT1A1 Arg/Arg or His/His genotypes. Conclusions: These findings have suggested that the NQO1 Pro187Ser or SULT1A1 Arg213His polymorphism combination with smoking significantly confer susceptibility to BC. Int J Occup Med Environ Health 2017;30(5:791–802

Establishing sitewide risk perspectives due to cumulative impacts from AB, EP, and NEPA hazard analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olinger, S.J.

1998-06-01

With the end of the Cold War in 1992, the mission for the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (Site) was changed from production of nuclear weapon components to special nuclear materials (SNM) and waste management, accelerated cleanup, reuse and closure of the Site. This change in mission presents new hazards and risk management challenges. With today's shrinking DOE budget, a balance needs to be achieved between controlling those hazards related to SNM and waste management and interim storage, and those hazards related to accelerated closure of the Site involving deactivation, decontamination, and decommissioning (DD and D) of surplus nuclear facilities. This paper discusses how risk assessments of normal operations and potential accidents have provided insights on the risks of current operations and planned closure activities

Determining significant endpoints for ecological risk analyses. 1997 annual progress report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hinton, T.G.; Congdon, J.; Rowe, C.; Scott, D. [Univ. of Georgia, Aiken, SC (US). Savannah River Ecology Lab.; Bedford, J.; Whicker, F.W. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (US)

1997-11-01

'This report summarizes the first year''s progress of research funded under the Department of Energy''s Environmental Management Science Program. The research was initiated to better determine ecological risks from toxic and radioactive contaminants. More precisely, the research is designed to determine the relevancy of sublethal cellular damage to the performance of individuals and to identify characteristics of non-human populations exposed to chronic, low-level radiation, as is typically found on many DOE sites. The authors propose to establish a protocol to assess risks to non-human species at higher levels of biological organization by relating molecular damage to more relevant responses that reflect population health. They think that they can achieve this by coupling changes in metabolic rates and energy allocation patterns to meaningful population response variables, and by using novel biological dosimeters in controlled, manipulative dose/effects experiments. They believe that a scientifically defensible endpoint for measuring ecological risks can only be determined once its understood the extent to which molecular damage from contaminant exposure is detrimental at the individual and population levels of biological organization.'

Identifying Individual, Cultural and Asthma-Related Risk and Protective Factors Associated With Resilient Asthma Outcomes in Urban Children and Families

Science.gov (United States)

McQuaid, Elizabeth L.; Jandasek, Barbara; Kopel, Sheryl J.; Seifer, Ronald; Klein, Robert B.; Potter, Christina; Fritz, Gregory K.

2012-01-01

Objective The goal of this study is to identify individual, family/cultural, and illness-related protective factors that may minimize asthma morbidity in the context of multiple urban risks in a sample of inner-city children and families. Methods Participating families are from African-American (33), Latino (51) and non-Latino white (47) backgrounds. A total of 131 children with asthma (56% male), ages 6–13 years and their primary caregivers were included. Results Analyses supported the relationship between cumulative risks and asthma morbidity across children of the sample. Protective processes functioned differently by ethnic group. For example, Latino families exhibited higher levels of family connectedness, and this was associated with lower levels of functional limitation due to asthma, in the context of risks. Conclusions This study demonstrates the utility of examining multilevel protective processes that may guard against urban risks factors to decrease morbidity. Intervention programs for families from specific ethnic groups can be tailored to consider individual, family-based/cultural and illness-related supports that decrease stress and enhance aspects of asthma treatment. PMID:22408053

Children at Risk for Suicide Attempt and Attempt-related Injuries: Findings from the 2007 Youth Risk Behavior Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

West, Bethany A

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The current study examines the associations between a range of risk factors and reports of suicide attempts, and attempts requiring medical care in a nationally representative study of high school students. The goal is to examine sex differences in the risk factors that are associated with suicide attempts and attempt-related injuries requiring treatment by a health-care provider. Methods: Data from the 2007 Youth Risk Behavior Survey for students in grades 9-12 were used to assess the prevalence and risk factors for suicidal behavior as well as differences in these for boys and girls. Cross-sectional multivariate logistic regression analyses were computed to determine the most important risk factors for suicide attempts and for suicide attempts requiring medical care for the sample overall and also stratified for boys and for girls. Results: Overall, 6.9% of adolescents attempted suicide (9.3% of girls versus 4.6% of boys. Girls were more likely than boys to report a suicide attempt in the past year (Adj.OR=2.89. Among girls, sadness (Adj.OR=5.74, weapon carrying (Adj.OR=1.48, dating violence (Adj.OR=1.60, forced sex (Adj.OR=1.72, and huffing glue (Adj.OR=2.04 were significantly associated with suicide attempts. Among boys, sadness (Adj.OR=10.96, weapon carrying (Adj.OR=1.66, forced sex (Adj.OR=2.60, huffing glue (OR=1.63, hard drug use (Adj.OR=2.18, and sports involvement (Adj.OR=1.52 were significantly associated with suicide attempts. Conclusions: These findings demonstrate similarities and differences in terms of the modifiable risk factors that increase risk for suicide attempts among boys and girls. In terms of the differences between boys and girls, hard drug use and sports involvement may be important factors for suicide prevention strategies that are directed specifically towards boys, while dating violence victimization may be an important risk factor to address for girls. Overall, these findings can help guide prevention

Roadway related tort liability and risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-01

This workbook provide government employees background information related to tort liability and risk management. Past experience with lawsuits against government entities are summarized. The reasons for the lawsuits and results are analyzed. The obje...

Using prior risk-related knowledge to support risk management decisions: lessons learnt from a tunneling project.

Science.gov (United States)

Cárdenas, Ibsen Chivatá; Al-Jibouri, Saad S H; Halman, Johannes I M; van de Linde, Wim; Kaalberg, Frank

2014-10-01

The authors of this article have developed six probabilistic causal models for critical risks in tunnel works. The details of the models' development and evaluation were reported in two earlier publications of this journal. Accordingly, as a remaining step, this article is focused on the investigation into the use of these models in a real case study project. The use of the models is challenging given the need to provide information on risks that usually are both project and context dependent. The latter is of particular concern in underground construction projects. Tunnel risks are the consequences of interactions between site- and project-specific factors. Large variations and uncertainties in ground conditions as well as project singularities give rise to particular risk factors with very specific impacts. These circumstances mean that existing risk information, gathered from previous projects, is extremely difficult to use in other projects. This article considers these issues and addresses the extent to which prior risk-related knowledge, in the form of causal models, as the models developed for the investigation, can be used to provide useful risk information for the case study project. The identification and characterization of the causes and conditions that lead to failures and their interactions as well as their associated probabilistic information is assumed to be risk-related knowledge in this article. It is shown that, irrespective of existing constraints on using information and knowledge from past experiences, construction risk-related knowledge can be transferred and used from project to project in the form of comprehensive models based on probabilistic-causal relationships. The article also shows that the developed models provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures by means of the identification of critical risk factors, and therefore they support risk management decisions. Similarly, a number of limitations of the models are

Market analyses of livestock trade networks to inform the prevention of joint economic and epidemiological risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Moslonka-Lefebvre, Mathieu; Gilligan, Christopher A; Monod, Hervé; Belloc, Catherine; Ezanno, Pauline; Filipe, João A N; Vergu, Elisabeta

2016-03-01

Conventional epidemiological studies of infections spreading through trade networks, e.g., via livestock movements, generally show that central large-size holdings (hubs) should be preferentially surveyed and controlled in order to reduce epidemic spread. However, epidemiological strategies alone may not be economically optimal when costs of control are factored in together with risks of market disruption from targeting core holdings in a supply chain. Using extensive data on animal movements in supply chains for cattle and swine in France, we introduce a method to identify effective strategies for preventing outbreaks with limited budgets while minimizing the risk of market disruptions. Our method involves the categorization of holdings based on position along the supply chain and degree of market share. Our analyses suggest that trade has a higher risk of propagating epidemics through cattle networks, which are dominated by exchanges involving wholesalers, than for swine. We assess the effectiveness of contrasting interventions from the perspectives of regulators and the market, using percolation analysis. We show that preferentially targeting minor, non-central agents can outperform targeting of hubs when the costs to stakeholders and the risks of market disturbance are considered. Our study highlights the importance of assessing joint economic-epidemiological risks in networks underlying pathogen propagation and trade. © 2016 The Authors.

Market analyses of livestock trade networks to inform the prevention of joint economic and epidemiological risks

Science.gov (United States)

Gilligan, Christopher A.; Belloc, Catherine; Filipe, João A. N.; Vergu, Elisabeta

2016-01-01

Conventional epidemiological studies of infections spreading through trade networks, e.g. via livestock movements, generally show that central large-size holdings (hubs) should be preferentially surveyed and controlled in order to reduce epidemic spread. However, epidemiological strategies alone may not be economically optimal when costs of control are factored in together with risks of market disruption from targeting core holdings in a supply chain. Using extensive data on animal movements in supply chains for cattle and swine in France, we introduce a method to identify effective strategies for preventing outbreaks with limited budgets while minimizing the risk of market disruptions. Our method involves the categorization of holdings based on position along the supply chain and degree of market share. Our analyses suggest that trade has a higher risk of propagating epidemics through cattle networks, which are dominated by exchanges involving wholesalers, than for swine. We assess the effectiveness of contrasting interventions from the perspectives of regulators and the market, using percolation analysis. We show that preferentially targeting minor, non-central agents can outperform targeting of hubs when the costs to stakeholders and the risks of market disturbance are considered. Our study highlights the importance of assessing joint economic–epidemiological risks in networks underlying pathogen propagation and trade. PMID:26984191

The influence of baseline risk on the relation between HbA1c and risk for new cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and symptomatic cardiovascular disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Bots, Sophie H; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Nathoe, Hendrik M W; de Borst, Gert Jan; Kappelle, Jaap L; Visseren, Frank L J; Westerink, Jan

2016-07-19

Strict glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes has proven to have microvascular benefits while the effects on CVD and mortality are less clear, especially in high risk patients. Whether strict glycaemic control would reduce the risk of future CVD or mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and pre-existing CVD, is unknown. This study aims to evaluate whether the relation between baseline HbA1c and new cardiovascular events or mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD) is modified by baseline vascular risk. A cohort of 1096 patients with type 2 diabetes and CVD from the Second Manifestations of ARTerial Disease (SMART) study was followed. The relation between HbA1c at baseline and future vascular events (composite of myocardial infarction, stroke and vascular mortality) and all-cause mortality was evaluated with Cox proportional hazard analyses in a population that was stratified for baseline risk for vascular events as calculated with the SMART risk score. The mean follow-up duration was 6.9 years for all-cause mortality and 6.4 years for vascular events, in which period 243 and 223 cases were reported, respectively. A 1 % increase in HbA1c was associated with a higher risk for all-cause mortality (HR 1.18, 95 % CI 1.06-1.31). This association was also found in the highest SMART risk quartile (HR 1.33, 95 % CI 1.11-1.60). There was no relation between HbA1c and the occurrence of cardiovascular events during follow-up (HR 1.03, 95 % CI 0.91-1.16). The interaction term between HbA1c and SMART risk score was not significantly related to any of the outcomes. In patients with type 2 diabetes and CVD, HbA1c is related to the risk of all-cause mortality, but not to the risk of cardiovascular events. The relation between HbA1c and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and vascular disease is not dependent on baseline vascular risk.

Risk factors of age-related macular degeneration in Argentina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Eugenia Nano

2013-04-01

Full Text Available PURPOSES: To assess the risk factors of age-related macular degeneration in Argentina using a case-control study. METHODS: Surveys were used for subjects' antioxidant intake, age/gender, race, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes (and type of treatment, smoking, sunlight exposure, red meat consumption, fish consumption, presence of age-related macular degeneration and family history of age-related macular degeneration. Main effects models for logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression were used to analyze the results. RESULTS: There were 175 cases and 175 controls with a mean age of 75.4 years and 75.5 years, respectively, of whom 236 (67.4% were female. Of the cases with age-related macular degeneration, 159 (45.4% had age-related macular degeneration in their left eyes, 154 (44.0% in their right eyes, and 138 (39.4% in both eyes. Of the cases with age-related macular degeneration in their left eyes, 47.8% had the dry type, 40.3% had the wet type, and the type was unknown for 11.9%. The comparable figures for right eyes were: 51.9%, 34.4%, and 13.7%, respectively. The main effects model was dominated by higher sunlight exposure (OR [odds ratio]: 3.3 and a family history of age-related macular degeneration (OR: 4.3. Other factors included hypertension (OR: 2.1, smoking (OR: 2.2, and being of the Mestizo race, which lowered the risk of age-related macular degeneration (OR: 0.40. Red meat/fish consumption, body mass index, and iris color did not have an effect. Higher age was associated with progression to more severe age-related macular degeneration. CONCLUSION: Sunlight exposure, family history of age-related macular degeneration, and an older age were the significant risk factors. There may be other variables, as the risk was not explained very well by the existing factors. A larger sample may produce different and better results.

[Health risks in different living circumstances of mothers. Analyses based on a population study].

Science.gov (United States)

Sperlich, Stefanie

2014-12-01

The objective of this study was to determine the living circumstances ('Lebenslagen') in mothers which are associated with elevated health risks. Data were derived from a cross-sectional population based sample of German women (n = 3129) with underage children. By means of a two-step cluster analysis ten different maternal living circumstances were assessed which proved to be distinct with respect to indicators of socioeconomic position, employment status and family-related factors. Out of the ten living circumstances, one could be attributed to higher socioeconomic status (SES), while five were assigned to a middle SES and four to a lower SES. In line with previous findings, mothers with a high SES predominantly showed the best health while mothers with a low SES tended to be at higher health risk with respect to subjective health, mental health (anxiety and depression), obesity and smoking. However, there were important health differences between the different living circumstances within the middle and lower SES. In addition, varying health risks were found among different living circumstances of single mothers, pointing to the significance of family and job-related living conditions in establishing health risks. With this exploratory analysis strategy small-scale living conditions could be detected which were associated with specific health risks. This approach seemed particularly suitable to provide a more precise definition of target groups for health promotion. The findings encourage a more exrensive application of the concept of living conditions in medical sociology research as well as health monitoring.

Nighttime parenting strategies and sleep-related risks to infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Volpe, Lane E; Ball, Helen L; McKenna, James J

2013-02-01

A large social science and public health literature addresses infant sleep safety, with implications for infant mortality in the context of accidental deaths and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). As part of risk reduction campaigns in the USA, parents are encouraged to place infants supine and to alter infant bedding and elements of the sleep environment, and are discouraged from allowing infants to sleep unsupervised, from bed-sharing either at all or under specific circumstances, or from sofa-sharing. These recommendations are based on findings from large-scale epidemiological studies that generate odds ratios or relative risk statistics for various practices; however, detailed behavioural data on nighttime parenting and infant sleep environments are limited. To address this issue, this paper presents and discusses the implications of four case studies based on overnight observations conducted with first-time mothers and their four-month old infants. These case studies were collected at the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at the University of Notre Dame USA between September 2002 and June 2004. Each case study provides a detailed description based on video analysis of sleep-related risks observed while mother-infant dyads spent the night in a sleep lab. The case studies provide examples of mothers engaged in the strategic management of nighttime parenting for whom sleep-related risks to infants arose as a result of these strategies. Although risk reduction guidelines focus on eliminating potentially risky infant sleep practices as if the probability of death from each were equal, the majority of instances in which these occur are unlikely to result in infant mortality. Therefore, we hypothesise that mothers assess potential costs and benefits within margins of risk which are not acknowledged by risk-reduction campaigns. Exploring why mothers might choose to manage sleep and nighttime parenting in ways that appear to increase potential risks to infants may

Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

2012-01-01

In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

Menopausal hormone use and ovarian cancer risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beral, V; Gaitskell, K; Hermon, C

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Half the epidemiological studies with information about menopausal hormone therapy and ovarian cancer risk remain unpublished, and some retrospective studies could have been biased by selective participation or recall. We aimed to assess with minimal bias the effects of hormone therapy...... on ovarian cancer risk. METHODS: Individual participant datasets from 52 epidemiological studies were analysed centrally. The principal analyses involved the prospective studies (with last hormone therapy use extrapolated forwards for up to 4 years). Sensitivity analyses included the retrospective studies....... Adjusted Poisson regressions yielded relative risks (RRs) versus never-use. FINDINGS: During prospective follow-up, 12 110 postmenopausal women, 55% (6601) of whom had used hormone therapy, developed ovarian cancer. Among women last recorded as current users, risk was increased even with

Risk considerations related to lung modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masse, R.; Cross, F.T.

1989-01-01

Improved lung models provide a more accurate assessment of dose from inhalation exposures and, therefore, more accurate dose-response relationships for risk evaluation and exposure limitation. Epidemiological data for externally irradiated persons indicate that the numbers of excess respiratory tract carcinomas differ in the upper airways, bronchi, and distal lung. Neither their histogenesis and anatomical location nor their progenitor cells are known with sufficient accuracy for accurate assessment of the microdosimetry. The nuclei of sensitive cells generally can be assumed to be distributed at random in the epithelium, beneath the mucus and tips of the beating cilia and cells. In stratified epithelia, basal cells may be considered the only cells at risk. Upper-airway tumors have been observed in both therapeutically irradiated patients and in Hiroshima-Nagasaki survivors. The current International Commission on Radiological Protection Lung-Model Task Group proposes that the upper airways and lung have a similar relative risk coefficient for cancer induction. The partition of the risk weighting factor, therefore, will be proportional to the spontaneous death rate from tumors, and 80% of the weighting factor for the respiratory tract should be attributed to the lung. For Weibel lung-model branching generations 0 to 16 and 17 to 23, the Task Group proposes an 80/20 partition of the risk, i.e., 64% and 16%, respectively, of the total risk. Regarding risk in animals, recent data in rats indicate a significantly lower effectiveness for lung-cancer induction at low doses from insoluble long-lived alpha-emitters than from Rn daughters. These findings are due, in part, to the fact that different regions of the lung are irradiated. Tumors in the lymph nodes are rare in people and animals exposed to radiation.44 references

Human health risk assessment in relation to environmental pollution of two artificial freshwater lakes in The Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Albering, H J; Rila, J P; Moonen, E J; Hoogewerff, J A; Kleinjans, J C

1999-01-01

A human health risk assessment has been performed in relation to recreational activities on two artificial freshwater lakes along the river Meuse in The Netherlands. Although the discharges of contaminants into the river Meuse have been reduced in the last decades, which is reflected in decreasing concentrations of pollutants in surface water and suspended matter, the levels in sediments are more persistent. Sediments of the two freshwater lakes appear highly polluted and may pose a health risk in relation to recreational activities. To quantify health risks for carcinogenic (e.g., polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) as well as noncarcinogenic compounds (e.g., heavy metals), an exposure assessment model was used. First, we used a standard model that solely uses data on sediment pollution as the input parameter, which is the standard procedure in sediment quality assessments in The Netherlands. The highest intake appeared to be associated with the consumption of contaminated fish and resulted in a health risk for Pb and Zn (hazard index exceeded 1). For the other heavy metals and for benzo(a)pyrene, the total averaged exposure levels were below levels of concern. Secondly, input data for a more location-specific calculation procedure were provided via analyses of samples from sediment, surface water, and suspended matter. When these data (concentrations in surface water) were taken into account, the risk due to consumption of contaminated fish decreased by more than two orders of magnitude and appeared to be negligible. In both exposure assessments, many assumptions were made that contribute to a major degree to the uncertainty of this risk assessment. However, this health risk evaluation is useful as a screening methodology for assessing the urgency of sediment remediation actions.

An exploration of how perceptions of the risk of avian influenza in poultry relate to urbanization in Vietnam.

Science.gov (United States)

Finucane, Melissa L; Nghiem, Tuyen; Saksena, Sumeet; Nguyen, Lam; Fox, Jefferson; Spencer, James H; Thau, Trinh Dinh

2014-01-01

This research examined how perceptions of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 in poultry are related to urbanization. Via in-depth interviews with village leaders, household farmers, and large farm operators in modern, transitional, and traditional communes in the north of Vietnam, we explored behaviors, attitudes, cultural values, and traditions that might amplify or attenuate HPAI outbreaks. We also explored conceptualizations of urbanization and its impacts on animal husbandry and disease outbreaks. Qualitative theme analyses identified the key impacts, factors related to HPAI outbreaks, and disease prevention and management strategies. The analyses also highlighted how urbanization improves some aspects of life (e.g., food security, family wealth and health, more employment opportunities, and improved infrastructure), but simultaneously poses significant challenges for poultry farming and disease management. Awareness of qualitative aspects of HPAI risk perceptions and behaviors and how they vary with urbanization processes may help to improve the prevention and management of emerging infectious diseases.

The GCKR rs780094 polymorphism is associated with elevated fasting serum triacylglycerol, reduced fasting and OGTT-related insulinaemia, and reduced risk of type 2 diabetes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sparsø, T; Andersen, G; Nielsen, T

2007-01-01

to metabolic traits (mainly fasting hypertriacylglycerolaemia) and traits related to pancreatic beta cell function. METHODS: The polymorphism was genotyped in 16,853 Danes using Taqman allelic discrimination. Association was analysed in case-control studies and quantitative trait analyses. We also analysed...... the possible interactive effect between the GCK -30G>A polymorphism and the GCKR rs780094 variant on metabolic traits. RESULTS: The minor GCKR A-allele of rs780094 is associated with an increased level of fasting serum triacylglycerol (p = 6 x 10(-14)), impaired fasting (p = 0.001) and OGTT-related insulin...... release (p = 3 x 10(-6)), reduced homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (p = 0.0004), WHO-defined dyslipidaemia (p = 6 x 10(-9)) and a modestly decreased risk of type 2 diabetes (p = 0.01). Significantly increased fasting serum insulin concentrations were demonstrated when analysing the GCK...

Urbanization and traffic related exposures as risk factors for Schizophrenia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Mortensen, Preben Bo

2006-01-01

to nearest major road had no significant effect. CONCLUSIONS: The cause(s) or exposure(s) responsible for the urban-rural differences in schizophrenia risk were closer related to the degree of urbanization than to the geographical distance to nearest major road. Traffic related exposures might thus be less......BACKGROUND: Urban birth or upbringing increase schizophrenia risk. Though unknown, the causes of these urban-rural differences have been hypothesized to include, e.g., infections, diet, toxic exposures, social class, or an artefact due to selective migration. METHODS: We investigated the hypothesis...... that traffic related exposures affect schizophrenia risk and that this potential effect is responsible for the urban-rural differences. The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road was used as a proxy variable for traffic related exposures. We used a large population-based sample...

The influence of the technologically advanced evacuation models on the risk analyses during accidents in LNG terminal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stankovicj, Goran; Petelin, Stojan [Faculty for Maritime Studies and Transport, University of Ljubljana, Portorozh (Sierra Leone); others, and

2014-07-01

The evacuation of people located in different safety zones of an LNG terminal is a complex problem considering that the accidents involving LNG are very hazardous and post the biggest threat to the safety of the people located near the LNG leakage. The safety risk criteria define the parameters which one LNG terminal should meet in terms of safety. Those criteria also contain an evacuation as an evasive action with the objective to mitigate the influence of the LNG accident on the people at risk. Till date, not a lot of attention has been paid to technologically advanced evacuations intended for LNG terminals. Creating the technologically advanced evacuation influences directly on the decrease of the probability of fatalities P{sub f,i}, thus influencing the calculation of the individual risk as well as the societal risk which results in the positioning of the F-N curve in the acceptable part of the ALARP zone. With this paper, we aim to present the difference between the safety analyses in cases when conservative data for P{sub f,i} is being used while calculating the risk, and in cases when real data for P{sub f,i} is been used. (Author)

The Regulation of Major Risks in Relation to Large Nuclear Installations in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phan Van, L.

1991-01-01

Recently, major risk prevention has generated legislative and regulatory texts in French law, particularly regarding nuclear installations. This article reviews the context and analyses the scope of the new regulations. They require the nuclear operator to take preventive measures, namely more stringent obligations from the safety viewpoint to inform the public. These include risk assessments and preparing emergency plans in case if accidents. (NEA)

Beyond the contract: managing risk in supply chain relations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dekker, H.C.; Sakaguchi, J.; Kawai, T.

2013-01-01

As a consequence of the development of intensified relations with suppliers, for many firms the supply chain has become a significant source of risk exposure. In this paper we examine firms' use of control practices to manage risks associated with intensified collaboration with supply chain

Helicobacter pylori-related chronic gastritis as a risk factor for colonic neoplasms.

Science.gov (United States)

Inoue, Izumi; Kato, Jun; Tamai, Hideyuki; Iguchi, Mikitaka; Maekita, Takao; Yoshimura, Noriko; Ichinose, Masao

2014-02-14

To summarize the current views and insights on associations between Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori)-related chronic gastritis and colorectal neoplasm, we reviewed recent studies to clarify whether H. pylori infection/H. pylori-related chronic gastritis is associated with an elevated risk of colorectal neoplasm. Recent studies based on large databases with careful control for confounding variables have clearly demonstrated an increased risk of colorectal neoplasm associated with H. pylori infection. The correlation between H. pylori-related chronic atrophic gastritis (CAG) and colorectal neoplasm has only been examined in a limited number of studies. A recent large study using a national histopathological database, and our study based on the stage of H. pylori-related chronic gastritis as determined by serum levels of H. pylori antibody titer and pepsinogen, indicated that H. pylori-related CAG confers an increased risk of colorectal neoplasm, and more extensive atrophic gastritis will probably be associated with even higher risk of neoplasm. In addition, our study suggested that the activity of H. pylori-related chronic gastritis is correlated with colorectal neoplasm risk. H. pylori-related chronic gastritis could be involved in an increased risk of colorectal neoplasm that appears to be enhanced by the progression of gastric atrophy and the presence of active inflammation.

The Uncertainties of Risk Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vinnari, Eija; Skærbæk, Peter

2014-01-01

for expanding risk management. More generally, such uncertainties relate to the professional identities and responsibilities of operational managers as defined by the framing devices. Originality/value – The paper offers three contributions to the extant literature: first, it shows how risk management itself......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the implementation of risk management as a tool for internal audit activities, focusing on unexpected effects or uncertainties generated during its application. Design/methodology/approach – Public and confidential documents as well as semi......-structured interviews are analysed through the lens of actor-network theory to identify the effects of risk management devices in a Finnish municipality. Findings – The authors found that risk management, rather than reducing uncertainty, itself created unexpected uncertainties that would otherwise not have emerged...

Risk investigation for safety assessment of nuclear power stations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heuser, F.W.; Hoertner, H.; Kersting, E.

1987-01-01

The most important results of the technical system investigations for Phase B of the German Risk Study and the insight gained from them are discussed in connection with the risk analyses in judging the safety-related design. The results of the German Precursor Study for the Biblis A and B plants are given. There is also a comparison of the German with more recent American risk analyses. (DG) [de

Adjuvant Sunitinib for High-risk Renal Cell Carcinoma After Nephrectomy: Subgroup Analyses and Updated Overall Survival Results.

Science.gov (United States)

Motzer, Robert J; Ravaud, Alain; Patard, Jean-Jacques; Pandha, Hardev S; George, Daniel J; Patel, Anup; Chang, Yen-Hwa; Escudier, Bernard; Donskov, Frede; Magheli, Ahmed; Carteni, Giacomo; Laguerre, Brigitte; Tomczak, Piotr; Breza, Jan; Gerletti, Paola; Lechuga, Mariajose; Lin, Xun; Casey, Michelle; Serfass, Lucile; Pantuck, Allan J; Staehler, Michael

2018-01-01

Adjuvant sunitinib significantly improved disease-free survival (DFS) versus placebo in patients with locoregional renal cell carcinoma (RCC) at high risk of recurrence after nephrectomy (hazard ratio [HR] 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.98; p=0.03). To report the relationship between baseline factors and DFS, pattern of recurrence, and updated overall survival (OS). Data for 615 patients randomized to sunitinib (n=309) or placebo (n=306) in the S-TRAC trial. Subgroup DFS analyses by baseline risk factors were conducted using a Cox proportional hazards model. Baseline risk factors included: modified University of California Los Angeles integrated staging system criteria, age, gender, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS), weight, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and Fuhrman grade. Of 615 patients, 97 and 122 in the sunitinib and placebo arms developed metastatic disease, with the most common sites of distant recurrence being lung (40 and 49), lymph node (21 and 26), and liver (11 and 14), respectively. A benefit of adjuvant sunitinib over placebo was observed across subgroups, including: higher risk (T3, no or undetermined nodal involvement, Fuhrman grade ≥2, ECOG PS ≥1, T4 and/or nodal involvement; hazard ratio [HR] 0.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55-0.99; p=0.04), NLR ≤3 (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.54-0.95; p=0.02), and Fuhrman grade 3/4 (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.55-0.98; p=0.04). All subgroup analyses were exploratory, and no adjustments for multiplicity were made. Median OS was not reached in either arm (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.66-1.28; p=0.6); 67 and 74 patients died in the sunitinib and placebo arms, respectively. A benefit of adjuvant sunitinib over placebo was observed across subgroups. The results are consistent with the primary analysis, which showed a benefit for adjuvant sunitinib in patients at high risk of recurrent RCC after nephrectomy. Most subgroups of patients at high risk of recurrent renal cell carcinoma after

Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Ning

Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is

Tailoring Psychosocial Risk Assessment in the Oil and Gas Industry by Exploring Specific and Common Psychosocial Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linn Iren Vestly Bergh

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Psychosocial risk management [Psychosocial Risk Management Approach (PRIMA] has, through the years, been applied in several organizations in various industries and countries globally. PRIMA principles have also been translated into international frameworks, such as PRIMA-EF (European framework and the World Health Organization Healthy Workplace Framework. Over the past 10 years, an oil and gas company has put efforts into adopting and implementing international frameworks and standards for psychosocial risk management. More specifically, the company uses a PRIMA. Methods: This study explores available quantitative and qualitative risk data collected through the PRIMA method over the past 8 years in order to explore specific and common psychosocial risks in the petroleum industry. Results: The analyses showed a significant correlation between job resources and symptoms of work-related stress, there was a significant correlation between job demands and symptoms of work-related stress, and there were differences in psychosocial risk factors and symptoms of work-related stress onshore and offshore. The study also offers recommendations on how the results can further be utilized in building a robust system for managing psychosocial risks in the industry. Conclusion: The results from the analyses have provided meaningful and important information about the company-specific psychosocial risk factors and their impact on health and well-being. Keywords: oil and gas industry, psychosocial risk factors, psychosocial risk management

HIV-related sexual risk behavior among African American adolescent girls.

Science.gov (United States)

Danielson, Carla Kmett; Walsh, Kate; McCauley, Jenna; Ruggiero, Kenneth J; Brown, Jennifer L; Sales, Jessica M; Rose, Eve; Wingood, Gina M; Diclemente, Ralph J

2014-05-01

Latent class analysis (LCA) is a useful statistical tool that can be used to enhance understanding of how various patterns of combined sexual behavior risk factors may confer differential levels of HIV infection risk and to identify subtypes among African American adolescent girls. Data for this analysis is derived from baseline assessments completed prior to randomization in an HIV prevention trial. Participants were African American girls (n=701) aged 14-20 years presenting to sexual health clinics. Girls completed an audio computer-assisted self-interview, which assessed a range of variables regarding sexual history and current and past sexual behavior. Two latent classes were identified with the probability statistics for the two groups in this model being 0.89 and 0.88, respectively. In the final multivariate model, class 1 (the "higher risk" group; n=331) was distinguished by a higher likelihood of >5 lifetime sexual partners, having sex while high on alcohol/drugs, less frequent condom use, and history of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), when compared with class 2 (the "lower risk" group; n=370). The derived model correctly classified 85.3% of participants into the two groups and accounted for 71% of the variance in the latent HIV-related sexual behavior risk variable. The higher risk class also had worse scores on all hypothesized correlates (e.g., self-esteem, history of sexual assault or physical abuse) relative to the lower risk class. Sexual health clinics represent a unique point of access for HIV-related sexual risk behavior intervention delivery by capitalizing on contact with adolescent girls when they present for services. Four empirically supported risk factors differentiated higher versus lower HIV risk. Replication of these findings is warranted and may offer an empirical basis for parsimonious screening recommendations for girls presenting for sexual healthcare services.

Heterogenous Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution and Relative Risk Aversion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khorunzhina, Natalia; Gayle, Wayne-Roy

This paper investigates the existence and degree of variation across house holds and over time in the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) and the coefficient of relative risk aversion (RRA) that is generated by habit forming preferences. To do so, we develop a new nonlinear GMM estimator...... in food consumption. Using these estimates, we develop bounds for the expectation of the implied heterogenous intertemporal elasticity of substitution and relative risk aversion that account for measurement errors and compute asymptotically valid confidence intervals on these bounds. We find...

Influence of contact definitions in assessment of the relative importance of social settings in disease transmission risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kirsty J Bolton

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Realistic models of disease transmission incorporating complex population heterogeneities require input from quantitative population mixing studies. We use contact diaries to assess the relative importance of social settings in respiratory pathogen spread using three measures of person contact hours (PCH as proxies for transmission risk with an aim to inform bipartite network models of respiratory pathogen transmission. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Our survey examines the contact behaviour for a convenience sample of 65 adults, with each encounter classified as occurring in a work, retail, home, social, travel or "other" setting. The diary design allows for extraction of PCH-interaction (cumulative time in face-face conversational or touch interaction with contacts--analogous to the contact measure used in several existing surveys--as well as PCH-setting (product of time spent in setting and number of people present and PCH-reach (product of time spent in setting and number of people in close proximity. Heterogeneities in day-dependent distribution of risk across settings are analysed using partitioning and cluster analyses and compared between days and contact measures. Although home is typically the highest-risk setting when PCH measures isolate two-way interactions, its relative importance compared to social and work settings may reduce when adopting a more inclusive contact measure that considers the number and duration of potential exposure events. CONCLUSIONS: Heterogeneities in location-dependent contact behaviour as measured by contact diary studies depend on the adopted contact definition. We find that contact measures isolating face-face conversational or touch interactions suggest that contact in the home dominates, whereas more inclusive contact measures indicate that home and work settings may be of higher importance. In the absence of definitive knowledge of the contact required to facilitate transmission of various

Process of Integrating Screening and Detailed Risk-based Modeling Analyses to Ensure Consistent and Scientifically Defensible Results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buck, John W.; McDonald, John P.; Taira, Randal Y.

2002-01-01

To support cleanup and closure of these tanks, modeling is performed to understand and predict potential impacts to human health and the environment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a screening tool for the United States Department of Energy, Office of River Protection that estimates the long-term human health risk, from a strategic planning perspective, posed by potential tank releases to the environment. This tool is being conditioned to more detailed model analyses to ensure consistency between studies and to provide scientific defensibility. Once the conditioning is complete, the system will be used to screen alternative cleanup and closure strategies. The integration of screening and detailed models provides consistent analyses, efficiencies in resources, and positive feedback between the various modeling groups. This approach of conditioning a screening methodology to more detailed analyses provides decision-makers with timely and defensible information and increases confidence in the results on the part of clients, regulators, and stakeholders

Age-related left ventricular remodeling and associated risk for cardiovascular outcomes: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Susan; Fernandes, Verônica R S; Bluemke, David A; McClelland, Robyn L; Kronmal, Richard A; Lima, João A C

2009-05-01

Age-related alterations of left ventricular (LV) structure and function that may predispose to cardiovascular events are not well understood. We used cardiac MRI to examine age-related differences in LV structure and function in 5004 participants without overt cardiovascular disease when enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis; 1099 participants received additional strain analyses by MRI tagging. We also assessed the relation of age-associated remodeling with cardiovascular outcomes using Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors. Although LV mass decreased with age (-0.3 g per year), the mass-to-volume ratio markedly increased (+5 mg/mL per year, Pfall in stroke volume (-0.4 mL per year, P or =65 years; hazard ratio, 1.68 [CI 0.77 to 3.68]) individuals with the highest compared to lowest mass-to-volume ratio quintile (P(interaction)=0.013). Age is associated with a phenotype of LV remodeling marked by increased mass-to-volume ratio and accompanied by systolic as well as diastolic myocardial dysfunction that is not reflected by preserved ejection fraction. This pattern of ventricular remodeling confers significant cardiovascular risk, particularly when present earlier in life.

Emerging Risks in the Dutch Food Chain report on project 2: Application of indicator analyses on several critical points in the salmon production chain and identification of related data sources

OpenAIRE

Schelvis-Smit, A.A.M.; Poelman, M.; Schneider, O.

2008-01-01

An indicator analysis was performed on the fish production chain by assessing the indicators which may be of importance for the detection of emerging risks. The indicators were embedded in a “risk pathway”, in which the relations between different indicators could be illustrated. The risk pathways illustrate the main characteristics of the salmon production chain. However further research is required in order to develop further interaction with other sectors, and production chains to bring em...

A methodology for analysing human errors of commission in accident scenarios for risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, J. H.; Jung, W. D.; Park, J. K

2003-01-01

As the concern on the impact of the operator's inappropriate interventions, so-called Errors Of Commissions(EOCs), on the plant safety has been raised, the interest in the identification and analysis of EOC events from the risk assessment perspective becomes increasing accordingly. To this purpose, we propose a new methodology for identifying and analysing human errors of commission that might be caused from the failures in situation assessment and decision making during accident progressions given an initiating event. The proposed methodology was applied to the accident scenarios of YGN 3 and 4 NPPs, which resulted in about 10 EOC situations that need careful attention

Concept analysis of risk in relation to coronary heart disease among Filipino-Americans.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalusung-Angosta, Alona

2010-01-01

To analyze the concept of risk in relation to coronary heart disease (CHD) among Filipino-Americans (FAs) and provide a new definition of risk. Published literature. This concept analysis provided a new meaning of risk in relation to CHD among FAs and shed light on further understanding of risk. Risk has been laced with negativity in health care, but based on the current literature, risk can be conceptualized in a positive perspective, especially in the area of chronic health disease such as CHD. However, further research is needed in the conceptualization of risk related to CHD for consistency, adequacy, and meaning. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Competing risk bias was common in Kaplan-Meier risk estimates published in prominent medical journals.

Science.gov (United States)

van Walraven, Carl; McAlister, Finlay A

2016-01-01

Risk estimates from Kaplan-Meier curves are well known to medical researchers, reviewers, and editors. In this study, we determined the proportion of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in prominent medical journals that are potentially biased because of competing events ("competing risk bias"). We randomly selected 100 studies that had at least one Kaplan-Meier analysis and were recently published in prominent medical journals. Susceptibility to competing risk bias was determined by examining the outcome and potential competing events. In susceptible studies, bias was quantified using a previously validated prediction model when the number of outcomes and competing events were given. Forty-six studies (46%) contained Kaplan-Meier analyses susceptible to competing risk bias. Sixteen studies (34.8%) susceptible to competing risk cited the number of outcomes and competing events; in six of these studies (6/16, 37.5%), the outcome risk from the Kaplan-Meier estimate (relative to the true risk) was biased upward by 10% or more. Almost half of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in medical journals are susceptible to competing risk bias and may overestimate event risk. This bias was found to be quantitatively important in a third of such studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Autonomous and controlled motivational regulations for multiple health-related behaviors: between- and within-participants analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Hagger, M.S.; Hardcastle, S.J.; Chater, A.; Mallett, C.; Pal, S.; Chatzisarantis, N.L.D.

2014-01-01

Self-determination theory has been applied to the prediction of a number of health-related behaviors with self-determined or autonomous forms of motivation generally more effective in predicting health behavior than non-self-determined or controlled forms. Research has been confined to examining the motivational predictors in single health behaviors rather than comparing effects across multiple behaviors. The present study addressed this gap in the literature by testing the relative contribution of autonomous and controlling motivation to the prediction of a large number of health-related behaviors, and examining individual differences in self-determined motivation as a moderator of the effects of autonomous and controlling motivation on health behavior. Participants were undergraduate students (N = 140) who completed measures of autonomous and controlled motivational regulations and behavioral intention for 20 health-related behaviors at an initial occasion with follow-up behavioral measures taken four weeks later. Path analysis was used to test a process model for each behavior in which motivational regulations predicted behavior mediated by intentions. Some minor idiosyncratic findings aside, between-participants analyses revealed significant effects for autonomous motivational regulations on intentions and behavior across the 20 behaviors. Effects for controlled motivation on intentions and behavior were relatively modest by comparison. Intentions mediated the effect of autonomous motivation on behavior. Within-participants analyses were used to segregate the sample into individuals who based their intentions on autonomous motivation (autonomy-oriented) and controlled motivation (control-oriented). Replicating the between-participants path analyses for the process model in the autonomy- and control-oriented samples did not alter the relative effects of the motivational orientations on intention and behavior. Results provide evidence for consistent effects

[Analysis of risk factors associated with professional drivers’ work].

Science.gov (United States)

Czerwińska, Maja; Hołowko, Joanna; Stachowska, Ewa

Professional driver is an occupation associated with high health risk. The factors which increase the risk of developing lifestyle diseases are closely related to working conditions. The aim of this study was to analyse the risk factors which are associated with professional drivers’ lifestyle. The material consisted of 23 articles from PubMed.gov. Risk factors related to drivers’ work have a signiicant impact on their health.

Exposure to traffic-related air pollution and risk of development of childhood asthma: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Khreis, Haneen; Kelly, Charlotte; Tate, James; Parslow, Roger; Lucas, Karen; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark

2017-03-01

The question of whether children's exposure to traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) contributes to their development of asthma is unresolved. We conducted a systematic review and performed meta-analyses to analyze the association between TRAP and asthma development in childhood. We systematically reviewed epidemiological studies published until 8 September 2016 and available in the Embase, Ovid MEDLINE (R), and Transport databases. We included studies that examined the association between children's exposure to TRAP metrics and their risk of 'asthma' incidence or lifetime prevalence, from birth to age 18years old. We extracted key characteristics of each included study using a predefined data items template and these were tabulated. We used the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme checklists to assess the validity of each included study. Where four or more independent risk estimates were available for a continuous pollutant exposure, we conducted overall and age-specific meta-analyses, and four sensitivity analyses for each summary meta-analytic exposure-outcome association. Forty-one studies met our eligibility criteria. There was notable variability in asthma definitions, TRAP exposure assessment methods and confounder adjustment. The overall random-effects risk estimates (95% CI) were 1.08 (1.03, 1.14) per 0.5×10 -5 m -1 black carbon (BC), 1.05 (1.02, 1.07) per 4μg/m 3 nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), 1.48 (0.89, 2.45) per 30μg/m 3 nitrogen oxides (NO x ), 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) per 1μg/m 3 Particulate Matter asthma development. Our findings support the hypothesis that childhood exposure to TRAP contributes to their development of asthma. Future meta-analyses would benefit from greater standardization of study methods including exposure assessment harmonization, outcome harmonization, confounders' harmonization and the inclusion of all important confounders in individual studies. PROSPERO 2014: CRD42014015448. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensation Seeking and Risk-Taking Propensity as Mediators in the Relationship between Childhood Abuse and HIV-Related Risk Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Bornovalova, Marina A.; Gwadz, Marya A.; Kahler, Christopher; Aklin, W. M.; Lejuez, C. W.

2008-01-01

Objectives: Although a wealth of literature suggests that childhood physical, emotional, and sexual abuse are related to later-life HIV-related risk behaviors, few studies have explored disinhibition (e.g., impulsivity, risk-taking propensity, and sensation-seeking) as a risk factor in this relationship. Method: This cross-sectional study examined…

Pedo-Climatic Risks Over Făllticeni City Related Orchards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jitariu Vasile

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Through this study, “Pedo-climatic risks over Fălticeni city related orchards”, we intend to conduct a study that highlights the way that a number of parameters such as climate and soil, through their evolution, may be considered a risk factor for orchards nearby Fălticeni city.

The influence of nuclear risk sense to atomic industry's public relation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biryukova, P.; Kazakevich, Yu.

2001-01-01

The goal of this report is estimation of the influence of sensing of nuclear risk to atomic industry's public relation. In this report the reasons of the negative relation to nuclear energetic owing to inadequate sensing of the risk dealing with this fields have been represented. (authors)

Relative Importance and Additive Effects of Maternal and Infant Risk Factors on Childhood Asthma.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Pingsheng; Feldman, Amy S; Rosas-Salazar, Christian; James, Kristina; Escobar, Gabriel; Gebretsadik, Tebeb; Li, Sherian Xu; Carroll, Kecia N; Walsh, Eileen; Mitchel, Edward; Das, Suman; Kumar, Rajesh; Yu, Chang; Dupont, William D; Hartert, Tina V

2016-01-01

Environmental exposures that occur in utero and during early life may contribute to the development of childhood asthma through alteration of the human microbiome. The objectives of this study were to estimate the cumulative effect and relative importance of environmental exposures on the risk of childhood asthma. We conducted a population-based birth cohort study of mother-child dyads who were born between 1995 and 2003 and were continuously enrolled in the PRIMA (Prevention of RSV: Impact on Morbidity and Asthma) cohort. The individual and cumulative impact of maternal urinary tract infections (UTI) during pregnancy, maternal colonization with group B streptococcus (GBS), mode of delivery, infant antibiotic use, and older siblings at home, on the risk of childhood asthma were estimated using logistic regression. Dose-response effect on childhood asthma risk was assessed for continuous risk factors: number of maternal UTIs during pregnancy, courses of infant antibiotics, and number of older siblings at home. We further assessed and compared the relative importance of these exposures on the asthma risk. In a subgroup of children for whom maternal antibiotic use during pregnancy information was available, the effect of maternal antibiotic use on the risk of childhood asthma was estimated. Among 136,098 singleton birth infants, 13.29% developed asthma. In both univariate and adjusted analyses, maternal UTI during pregnancy (odds ratio [OR] 1.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18, 1.25; adjusted OR [AOR] 1.04, 95%CI 1.02, 1.07 for every additional UTI) and infant antibiotic use (OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.20, 1.22; AOR 1.16, 95%CI 1.15, 1.17 for every additional course) were associated with an increased risk of childhood asthma, while having older siblings at home (OR 0.92, 95%CI 0.91, 0.93; AOR 0.85, 95%CI 0.84, 0.87 for each additional sibling) was associated with a decreased risk of childhood asthma, in a dose-dependent manner. Compared with vaginal delivery, C

Relative Importance and Additive Effects of Maternal and Infant Risk Factors on Childhood Asthma.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pingsheng Wu

Full Text Available Environmental exposures that occur in utero and during early life may contribute to the development of childhood asthma through alteration of the human microbiome. The objectives of this study were to estimate the cumulative effect and relative importance of environmental exposures on the risk of childhood asthma.We conducted a population-based birth cohort study of mother-child dyads who were born between 1995 and 2003 and were continuously enrolled in the PRIMA (Prevention of RSV: Impact on Morbidity and Asthma cohort. The individual and cumulative impact of maternal urinary tract infections (UTI during pregnancy, maternal colonization with group B streptococcus (GBS, mode of delivery, infant antibiotic use, and older siblings at home, on the risk of childhood asthma were estimated using logistic regression. Dose-response effect on childhood asthma risk was assessed for continuous risk factors: number of maternal UTIs during pregnancy, courses of infant antibiotics, and number of older siblings at home. We further assessed and compared the relative importance of these exposures on the asthma risk. In a subgroup of children for whom maternal antibiotic use during pregnancy information was available, the effect of maternal antibiotic use on the risk of childhood asthma was estimated.Among 136,098 singleton birth infants, 13.29% developed asthma. In both univariate and adjusted analyses, maternal UTI during pregnancy (odds ratio [OR] 1.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18, 1.25; adjusted OR [AOR] 1.04, 95%CI 1.02, 1.07 for every additional UTI and infant antibiotic use (OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.20, 1.22; AOR 1.16, 95%CI 1.15, 1.17 for every additional course were associated with an increased risk of childhood asthma, while having older siblings at home (OR 0.92, 95%CI 0.91, 0.93; AOR 0.85, 95%CI 0.84, 0.87 for each additional sibling was associated with a decreased risk of childhood asthma, in a dose-dependent manner. Compared with vaginal delivery, C

Modifiable risk factors for schizophrenia and autism--shared risk factors impacting on brain development.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlyn, Jess; Duhig, Michael; McGrath, John; Scott, James

2013-05-01

Schizophrenia and autism are two poorly understood clinical syndromes that differ in age of onset and clinical profile. However, recent genetic and epidemiological research suggests that these two neurodevelopmental disorders share certain risk factors. The aims of this review are to describe modifiable risk factors that have been identified in both disorders, and, where available, collate salient systematic reviews and meta-analyses that have examined shared risk factors. Based on searches of Medline, Embase and PsycINFO, inspection of review articles and expert opinion, we first compiled a set of candidate modifiable risk factors associated with autism. Where available, we next collated systematic-reviews (with or without meta-analyses) related to modifiable risk factors associated with both autism and schizophrenia. We identified three modifiable risk factors that have been examined in systematic reviews for both autism and schizophrenia. Advanced paternal age was reported as a risk factor for schizophrenia in a single meta-analysis and as a risk factor in two meta-analyses for autism. With respect to pregnancy and birth complications, for autism one meta-analysis identified maternal diabetes and bleeding during pregnancy as risks factors for autism whilst a meta-analysis of eight studies identified obstetric complications as a risk factor for schizophrenia. Migrant status was identified as a risk factor for both autism and schizophrenia. Two separate meta-analyses were identified for each disorder. Despite distinct clinical phenotypes, the evidence suggests that at least some non-genetic risk factors are shared between these two syndromes. In particular, exposure to drugs, nutritional excesses or deficiencies and infectious agents lend themselves to public health interventions. Studies are now needed to quantify any increase in risk of either autism or schizophrenia that is associated with these modifiable environmental factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc

Probabilistic aspects of risk analyses for hazardous facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morici, A.; Valeri, A.; Zaffiro, C.

1989-01-01

The work described in the paper discusses the aspects of the risk analysis concerned with the use of the probabilistic methodology, in order to see how this approach may affect the risk management of industrial hazardous facilities. To this purpose reference is done to the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants. The paper points out that even though the public aversion towards nuclear risks is still far from being removed, the probabilistic approach may provide a sound support to the decision making and authorization process for any industrial activity implying risk for the environment and the public health. It is opinion of the authors that the probabilistic techniques have been developed to a great level of sophistication in the nuclear industry and provided much more experience in this field than in others. For some particular areas of the nuclear applications, such as the plant reliability and the plant response to the accidents, these techniques have reached a sufficient level of maturity and so some results have been usefully taken as a measure of the safety level of the plant itself. The use of some limited safety goals is regarded as a relevant item of the nuclear licensing process. The paper claims that it is time now that these methods would be applied with equal success to other hazardous facilities, and makes some comparative consideration on the differences of these plants with nuclear power plants in order to understand the effect of these differences on the PRA results and on the use one intends to make with them. (author)

Food for thought - Communicating food-related risks

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Sturloni Giancarlo

2003-03-01

Full Text Available In the last few years, a continuous series of food alerts have caught the attention of the media and the public in Europe. First, eggs and pork contaminated with dioxins; then, “mad cow” disease, while, all along in the background, a battle against genetically modified plants has been in progress. These food alerts have had complex repercussions on the perception of risks associated with food production. Experts have often been divided over these issues, and the uncertainty of scientific data has been indicated on more than one occasion as one of the factors that influence risk perception. However, the most important factor seems to be undoubtedly the way in which the risk has been communicated (or not communicated to the public. Therefore, risk communication analysis offers an excellent opportunity to understand the profound changes that are taking place in relations among the scientific community, mass media and other members of civil society now that they are fully aware that scientific and technological innovation, the real driving force of modern industrial society, is a source of development but also a source of risks which are not always acceptable. Within this different context, a debate open to all interested parties appears to have become a dire necessity for the “risk society”, especially as far as food is concerned because food has extremely important psychological, ethical and cultural values.

Are all risks equal? Early experiences of poverty-related risk and children's functioning.

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, Amanda L; Raver, C Cybele

2014-06-01

Using cumulative risk and latent class analysis (LCA) models, we examined how exposure to deep poverty (income-to-needs ratio risks (i.e., single-parent household, residential crowding, caregiver depression, and multiple life stressors) in preschool is related to children's future difficulty in school in a longitudinal sample of 602 Head Start-enrolled, low-income families. Results from the LCA revealed 4 risk profiles: low risk, deep poverty and single, single and stressed, and deep poverty and crowded household. Tests of measurement invariance across racial/ethnic groups established that, although patterns of risk are similar across groups (i.e., risks covary in the same way), the prevalence of risk profiles differs. African American families were overrepresented in the "deep poverty and single" profile while Latino and White families were overrepresented in the "deep poverty and crowded" profile. Finally, children's third grade functioning in 3 domains (i.e., academic performance, behavior problems, and self-regulatory skills) was predicted using a cumulative risk index and LCA-identified risk profiles. Both approaches demonstrated that children who experienced higher levels of risk in preschool had worse school performance than children with low levels of risk. However, LCA also revealed that children who experienced "single and stressed" family settings had more behavior problems than low-risk children while children who experienced "deep poverty and crowded" family settings had worse academic performance. The results indicate that all risks are not equal for children's development and highlight the utility of LCA for tailoring intervention efforts to best meet the needs of target populations. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved

Relative risk perception for terrorism: implications for preparedness and risk communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Caponecchia, Carlo

2012-09-01

Terrorism presents a significant risk that is often approached at public policy, infrastructure, or emergency management level. Public perceptions of the likelihood of terrorist events, and how this may relate to individual preparedness, are not always extensively examined. The tendency to think that negative events are less likely to happen to oneself than to the average person is known as optimism bias. Optimism bias is relevant to perceptions of terrorism, because it is thought to be related to a reduction in precaution use. Using an online survey of 164 participants, this study aimed to determine whether Sydney residents thought they had a lower likelihood of experiencing terrorist events than other Australians. Significant optimism bias was observed for witnessing terrorist events, but not for personally experiencing terrorist events. In addition, Sydney residents tended to think that terrorist attacks were more likely to occur in Sydney than another major Australian city in the next five years. At the same time, household and workplace preparedness for terrorism was quite low, as was awareness of emergency strategies in the central business district. Perceptions of high likelihood of terrorism happening in one's own city, yet low preparedness present a challenge for risk communication and emergency management strategies. The diversity of possible terrorist targets, and the simple plans that can moderate the effects of a disaster may need to be emphasized in future anti-terrorism initiatives. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk of cancer in relatives of patients with myotonic dystrophy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, M; Diaz, L J; Gørtz, S

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Myotonic dystrophies (DM) are autosomal dominantly inherited neuromuscular disorders caused by unstable nucleotide repeat expansions. DM and cancer have been associated, but the pathogenesis behind the association remains unclear. It could relate to derived effects of the DM...... genotype in which case non-DM relatives of DM patients would not be expected to be at increased risk of cancer. To elucidate this, a population-based cohort study investigating risk of cancer in relatives of DM patients was conducted. METHODS: DM was identified using the National Danish Patient Registry...

Trial sequential analysis reveals insufficient information size and potentially false positive results in many meta-analyses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brok, J.; Thorlund, K.; Gluud, C.

2008-01-01

in 80% (insufficient information size). TSA(15%) and TSA(LBHIS) found that 95% and 91% had absence of evidence. The remaining nonsignificant meta-analyses had evidence of lack of effect. CONCLUSION: TSA reveals insufficient information size and potentially false positive results in many meta......OBJECTIVES: To evaluate meta-analyses with trial sequential analysis (TSA). TSA adjusts for random error risk and provides the required number of participants (information size) in a meta-analysis. Meta-analyses not reaching information size are analyzed with trial sequential monitoring boundaries...... analogous to interim monitoring boundaries in a single trial. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We applied TSA on meta-analyses performed in Cochrane Neonatal reviews. We calculated information sizes and monitoring boundaries with three different anticipated intervention effects of 30% relative risk reduction (TSA...

Qualitative and quantitative aspects of information processing in first psychosis: latent class analyses in patients, at-risk subjects, and controls.

Science.gov (United States)

van Tricht, Mirjam J; Bour, Lo J; Koelman, Johannes H T M; Derks, Eske M; Braff, David L; de Wilde, Odette M; Boerée, Thijs; Linszen, Don H; de Haan, Lieuwe; Nieman, Dorien H

2015-04-01

We aimed to determine profiles of information processing deficits in the pathway to first psychosis. Sixty-one subjects at ultrahigh risk (UHR) for psychosis were assessed, of whom 18 converted to a first episode of psychosis (FEP) within the follow-up period. Additionally, 47 FEP and 30 control subjects were included. Using 10 neurophysiological parameters associated with information processing, latent class analyses yielded three classes at baseline. Class membership was related to group status. Within the UHR sample, two classes were found. Transition to psychosis was nominally associated with class membership. Neurophysiological profiles were unstable over time, but associations between specific neurophysiological components at baseline and follow-up were found. We conclude that certain constellations of neurophysiological variables aid in the differentiation between controls and patients in the prodrome and after first psychosis. Copyright © 2014 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Scripts for TRUMP data analyses. Part II (HLA-related data): statistical analyses specific for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kanda, Junya

2016-01-01

The Transplant Registry Unified Management Program (TRUMP) made it possible for members of the Japan Society for Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation (JSHCT) to analyze large sets of national registry data on autologous and allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. However, as the processes used to collect transplantation information are complex and differed over time, the background of these processes should be understood when using TRUMP data. Previously, information on the HLA locus of patients and donors had been collected using a questionnaire-based free-description method, resulting in some input errors. To correct minor but significant errors and provide accurate HLA matching data, the use of a Stata or EZR/R script offered by the JSHCT is strongly recommended when analyzing HLA data in the TRUMP dataset. The HLA mismatch direction, mismatch counting method, and different impacts of HLA mismatches by stem cell source are other important factors in the analysis of HLA data. Additionally, researchers should understand the statistical analyses specific for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, such as competing risk, landmark analysis, and time-dependent analysis, to correctly analyze transplant data. The data center of the JSHCT can be contacted if statistical assistance is required.

Role of Behavioural Risk Factors in Symptoms Related to UTI Among Nursing Students.

Science.gov (United States)

Vyas, Shaili; Sharma, Parul; Srivastava, Kajal; Nautiyal, Vipul; Shrotriya, Ved Prakash

2015-09-01

UTI is a well known entity amongst young girls, and the majority of girls have recurrent infections within one year. Anything that disturbs the usual vaginal environment would result in conditions favouring the production of unwanted microorganisms leading to infections of this very sensitive area. Studies have shown that, there is an evident relation of UTI's among students and practices of personal hygiene. To determine association between the behavioural risk factors and UTI among nursing girls. The present study was undertaken amongst unmarried nursing students of a Medical College Hospital. A predesigned pretested questionnaire was used to know the personal hygiene of students and to find out its association with UTI in the last three months. Chi-square test was used to analyse the data. A significant association was observed between perineal hygiene and UTI. The major risk factors of UTI identified were incorrect perineal washing technique, use of synthetic/silk innerwears, not sundrying the innerwears, improper menstrual hygiene. There are still major gaps in the knowledge regarding causation of UTI among the nursing students. This calls for an urgent need for educational talks periodically addressing these gaps.

Occupational Noise Exposure and the Risk for Work-Related Injury: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dzhambov, Angel; Dimitrova, Donka

2017-11-10

Occupational noise exposure has been linked to work-related injuries. Strategies to control occupational hazards often rely on dose-response relationships needed to inform policy, but quantitative synthesis of the relevant literature has not been done so far. This study aimed to systematically review the epidemiological literature and to perform meta-analysis of the risk for work-related injury due to occupational noise exposure. PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines were followed. PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar were searched up until 15 December 2016 in English, Russian, and Spanish. Reference lists, grey literature, and expert archives were searched as well. The risk of bias was assessed for each study and incorporated into the meta-analysis weights using the quality effects model. Overall, 21 studies were included at the qualitative review stage: 9 cross-sectional, 6 case-control, 4 cohort, 1 case-crossover, and 1 ecological. Noise exposure was assessed objectively in 13 studies. Information on occupational injuries was elicited from medical records/registry in 13 studies. Meta-analyses showed RR = 1.22 (95% CI: 1.15, 1.29) (n = 59028) per 5 dB increase in noise exposure (Cochran's Q = 27.26, P 90-95 dB) compared with the least exposed group (Cochran's Q = 180.46, P work-related injury risk. However, the quality of evidence is 'very low'; therefore, the magnitude of this association should be interpreted with caution. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

AIDS Risk Perception and its related factors in Women with High-Risk Behaviors in Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahin Tafazoli

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Background & aim: AIDS is one of the major public health challenges all over the world. Perceived risk is a significant predictor of high-risk behaviors related to AIDS. Women constitute more than half of the HIV patients, and the rate of female sex workers with AIDS is more than the rest of female population. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate AIDS risk perception and its related factors in females with high-risk behaviors in Mashhad, Iran. Methods:This descriptive study was performed on 58 women who were arrested on prostitution charges and imprisoned in Mashhad Vakil Abad Prison in 2013. The data were collected using self-designed questionnaires assessing knowledge regarding AIDS as well as sexual activities and also perceived risk of HIV questionnaire. One-way ANOVA, independent samples t-test, linear regression, and Chi-square tests were run, using SPSS version 16. Results: The mean score of HIV risk perception was 18.43±5.92, which was average. There was a significant relationship between the mean score of perceived risk of HIV and knowledge regarding AIDS (P=0.005, alcohol consumption (P=0.04, history of addiction (P=0.008, using contraceptive methods (P=0.01, condom use during intercourse (P=0.02, voluntary HIV testing (P=0.001, and follow-up of HIV test (P=0.009. Conclusion:The findings of the present study revealed that knowledge, alcohol consumption, history of addiction, contraceptive methods, the rate of condom use during intercourse, as well as voluntary HIV testing and follow-up were associated with perceived risk of HIV infection. Therefore, taking the necessary steps towards health promotion through appropriate training and interventional approaches seems to be mandatory for reducing high-risk behaviors in populations with low risk perception.

High-risk versus low-risk football game weekends: differences in problem drinking and alcohol-related consequences on college campuses in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Champion, Heather; Blocker, Jill N; Buettner, Cynthia K; Martin, Barbara A; Parries, Maria; Mccoy, Thomas P; Mitra, Ananda; Andrews, David W; Rhodes, Scott D

2009-01-01

Collegiate football games provide multiple social opportunities for alcohol use by students over the course of the weekend. The goal of this study was to examine alcohol use and alcohol-related consequences on football game weekends to determine differences based on characteristics of the game. A random sample of students from two large, public universities in the United States completed a survey on the Sunday-Friday following a high-risk weekend (HRW, important, home game) and low-risk weekend (LRW, no home game or game of importance) (N = 3,238 total). The survey measured the number of days students drank (0-3) and got drunk (0-3) over the weekend and whether 1+ consequences were experienced due to one's own drinking (yes/no) and due to others' drinking (yes/no). Ordinal logistic regression analyses revealed greater odds of drinking alcohol (OR = 1.70, CI = 1.46-1.97) and getting drunk (OR = 1.49, CI = 1.27-1.76) on HRW versus LRW. Logistic regression analyses revealed greater odds of experiencing 1+ consequences as a result of one's own drinking (OR = 1.38, CI = 1.16-1.63) and experiencing 1+ consequences as a result of others' drinking (OR = 1.52, CI = 1.30-1.78) on HRW versus LRW. These findings suggest that additional prevention efforts aimed at reducing risky drinking are needed over HRW and have implications for campus administrators, law enforcement, and substance abuse program coordinators.

Analysing international relations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Corry, Olaf

2014-01-01

matters by depicting reality in new ways. I then show how different theories rely on different ‘pictures’ of what makes up the international system. Section 2 shows how theories differ in terms of their scope, their aims and their purposes. Section 3 explores some of the choices to be made when using...... theories to ‘explain’ international relations and distinguishes between different kinds of explanation. In Section 4 I look at how different theories have been grouped – first according to their underlying views of what is valid knowledge, and second in terms of different accounts of how history works.......Presented with conflicting evidence and interpretations, how do we ever come to valid conclusions about complex questions of continuity and change in global politics? In any analytical task you need to consider a number of things and this final chapter will take you through some of them including...

Changes in Classes of Injury-Related Risks and Consequences of Risk-Level Drinking: a Latent Transition Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Cochran, Gerald; Field, Craig; Caetano, Raul

2015-07-01

Risk-level drinking, drinking and driving, and alcohol-related violence are risk factors that result in injuries. The current study sought to identify which subgroups of patients experience the most behavioral change following a brief intervention. A secondary analysis of data from a brief alcohol intervention study was conducted. The sample (N = 664) includes at-risk drinkers who experienced an injury and were admitted for care to a Level 1 trauma center. Injury-related items from the Short Inventory of Problems+6 were used to perform a latent transition analysis to describe class transitions participants experienced following discharge. Four classes emerged for the year before and after the current injury. Most individuals transitioned from higher-risk classes into those with lower risk. Some participants maintained risky profiles, and others increased risks and consequences. Drinking and driving remained a persistent problem among the study participants. Although a large portion of intervention recipients improved risks and consequences of alcohol use following discharge, more intensive intervention services may be needed for a subset of patients who showed little or no improvement.

Risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) among male and female relatives of AAA patients.

Science.gov (United States)

van de Luijtgaarden, Koen M; Rouwet, Ellen V; Hoeks, Sanne E; Stolker, Robert J; Verhagen, Hence Jm; Majoor-Krakauer, Danielle

2017-04-01

Sex affects the presentation, treatment, and outcomes of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). Although AAAs are less prevalent in women, at least in the general population, women with an AAA have a poorer prognosis in comparison to men. Sex differences in the genetic predisposition for aneurysm disease remain to be established. In this study we investigated the familial risk of AAA for women compared to men. All living AAA patients included in a 2004-2012 prospective database were invited to the multidisciplinary vascular/genetics outpatient clinic between 2009 and 2012 for assessment of family history using detailed questionnaires. AAA risk for male and female relatives was calculated separately and stratified by sex of the AAA patients. Families of 568 AAA patients were investigated and 22.5% of the patients had at least one affected relative. Female relatives had a 2.8-fold and male relatives had a 1.7-fold higher risk than the estimated sex-specific population risk. Relatives of female AAA patients had a higher aneurysm risk than relatives of male patients (9.0 vs 5.9%, p = 0.022), corresponding to 5.5- and 2.0-fold increases in aneurysm risk in the female and male relatives, respectively. The risk for aortic aneurysm in relatives of AAA patients is higher than expected from population risk. The excess risk is highest for the female relatives of AAA patients and for the relatives of female AAA patients. These findings endorse targeted AAA family screening for female and male relatives of all AAA patients.

The relation of risk-taking propensity, professional preferences and the approach to the selection of future profession

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosić-Marković Olga

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Research has shown that risk-taking individuals choose professions that involve a high level of uncertainty, change or flexibility. The aim of this research was to study the relation between risk-taking propensity and professional preferences, as well as between different indicators of the approach to the selection of future profession and risk-taking propensity. The study was conducted on the sample of 583 students attending the final grade of secondary school. For the assessment of risk-taking propensity we used a modified version of the Evaluation of Risk scale (EVAR, while professional interests were investigated by the Test of Professional Orientation (TPO. In addition, we analysed certain indicators of the approach to the selection of profession that were interesting in the context of career counselling, namely: duration of the selection of profession, the number of professional preferences and readiness to make a professional choice. The results have shown that risk-taking propensity is significantly correlated with professional preferences where risk is an important job feature (such as professions in the field of security as well as with the professions where risk is an important part of success (such as sports. It has also been shown that risk-taking individuals assess themselves as more ready to make decisions on their own professional choice. Based on the obtained results, it can be concluded that risk-taking propensity is an important characteristic that should be taken into account when studying professional preferences and the approach to the selection of future profession in adolescents.

Russia-specific relative risks and their effects on the estimated alcohol-attributable burden of disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Shield, Kevin D; Rehm, Jürgen

2015-05-10

Alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for the burden of disease globally. This burden is estimated using Relative Risk (RR) functions for alcohol from meta-analyses that use data from all countries; however, for Russia and surrounding countries, country-specific risk data may need to be used. The objective of this paper is to compare the estimated burden of alcohol consumption calculated using Russia-specific alcohol RRs with the estimated burden of alcohol consumption calculated using alcohol RRs from meta-analyses. Data for 2012 on drinking indicators were calculated based on the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Data for 2012 on mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived with Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost by cause were obtained by country from the World Health Organization. Alcohol Population-Attributable Fractions (PAFs) were calculated based on a risk modelling methodology from Russia. These PAFs were compared to PAFs calculated using methods applied for all other countries. The 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs) for the alcohol PAFs were calculated using a Monte Carlo-like method. Using Russia-specific alcohol RR functions, in Russia in 2012 alcohol caused an estimated 231,900 deaths (95% UI: 185,600 to 278,200) (70,800 deaths among women and 161,100 deaths among men) and 13,295,000 DALYs lost (95% UI: 11,242,000 to 15,348,000) (3,670,000 DALYs lost among women and 9,625,000 DALYs lost among men) among people 0 to 64 years of age. This compares to an estimated 165,600 deaths (95% UI: 97,200 to 228,100) (29,700 deaths among women and 135,900 deaths among men) and 10,623,000 DALYs lost (95% UI: 7,265,000 to 13,754,000) (1,783,000 DALYs lost among women and 8,840,000 DALYs lost among men) among people 0 to 64 years of age caused by alcohol when non-Russia-specific alcohol RRs were used. Results indicate that if the Russia-specific RRs are used when estimating the health burden attributable to alcohol consumption in

Risk of Seizures in First Degree Relatives of Probands with Epilepsy ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Objective: To determine the risk of seizures in first degree relatives of epileptic patients. To relate the risk to several clinical characteristics in the probands. Such information is useful for genetic counselling. Methods: A prospective case-control study of 648 FDR of 88 probands attending the neurology out-patient clinic of a ...

Urban-hazard risk analysis: mapping of heat-related risks in the elderly in major Italian cities.

Science.gov (United States)

Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Gioli, Beniamino; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Toscano, Piero; Di Stefano, Valentina; Orlandini, Simone; Gensini, Gian Franco

2015-01-01

Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks. Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥ 65). A long time-series (2001-2013) of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m) daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST). LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1) the Linear Regression Model (LRM); 2) the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m) from the 2001 census (Eurostat source), and processed together using "Crichton's Risk Triangle" hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI). The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk) were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities. This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public health operators and facilitate coordination for heat-related

Urban-hazard risk analysis: mapping of heat-related risks in the elderly in major Italian cities.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marco Morabito

Full Text Available Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks.Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥ 65.A long time-series (2001-2013 of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST. LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1 the Linear Regression Model (LRM; 2 the Generalized Additive Model (GAM. Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m from the 2001 census (Eurostat source, and processed together using "Crichton's Risk Triangle" hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI.The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities.This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public health operators and facilitate coordination for heat-related

Insights from the analyses of risk-informed extension of diesel generator allowed outage time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, J.C.; He Wei

2005-01-01

In recent years, many U.S. nuclear plants have applied and received approval for the risk-informed extension of the Allowed Outage Time (AOT) for Emergency Diesel Generators (EDGs). These risk-informed applications need to meet the regulatory guidance on the risk criteria. This paper discusses in detail insights derived from the risk-informed analyses performed to support these applications. The risk criteria on ΔCDF/ΔLERF evaluate the increase in average risk by extending the AOT for EDGs, induced primarily by an increase in EDG maintenance unavailability due to the introduction of additional EDG preventive maintenance. By performing this preventive maintenance work on-line, the outage duration can be shortened. With proper refinement of the risk model, most plants can meet the ΔCDF/ΔLERF criteria for extending the EDGAOT from, for example, 3 days to 14 days. The key areas for model enhancements to meet these criteria include offsite/onsite power recovery, LERF modeling, etc. The most important LERF model enhancements consist of refinement of the penetrations included in the containment isolation model for the consideration of a large release, and taking credit for operator vessel depressurization during the time period between core damage and vessel failure. A recent study showed that although the frequency of loss of offsite power (LOSP) has decreased, the duration of offsite power recovery has actually increased. However, many of the events used to derive this conclusion may not be applicable to PRAs. One approach develops the offsite power non-recovery factor by first screening the LOSP events for applicability to the plant being analyzed, power operation, and LOSP initiating event, then using the remaining events data for the derivation based on the fraction of events with recovery duration longer than the time window allowed. The risk criteria on ICCDP/ICLERP examine the increase in risk from the average CDF/LERF, based on the increased maintenance

Review of clinical practice guidelines for the management of LDL-related risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Pamela B; Ballantyne, Christie M; Birtcher, Kim K; Dunn, Steven P; Urbina, Elaine M

2014-07-15

Managing risk related to low-density lipoprotein (LDL) is vital in therapy for patients at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events given its important etiologic role in atherogenesis. Despite decades of research showing reduction of ASCVD risk with multiple approaches to lowering of LDL cholesterol, there continue to be significant gaps in care with inadequate numbers of patients receiving standard of care lipid-lowering therapy. Confusion regarding implementation of the multiple published clinical practice guidelines has been identified as one contributor to suboptimal management of LDL-related risk. This review summarizes the current guidelines for reduction of LDL-related cardiovascular risk provided by a number of major professional societies, which have broad applicability to diverse populations worldwide. Statements have varied in the process and methodology of development of recommendations, the grading system for level and strength of evidence, the inclusion or exclusion of expert opinion, the suggested ASCVD risk assessment tool, the lipoproteins recommended for risk assessment, and the lipoprotein targets of therapy. The similarities and differences among important guidelines in the United States and internationally are discussed, with recommendations for future strategies to improve consistency in approaches to LDL-related ASCVD risk and to reduce gaps in implementation of evidence-based therapies. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vitamin E and risk of age-related cataract: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yufei; Jiang, Wenjie; Xie, Zhutian; Wu, Wenlong; Zhang, Dongfeng

2015-10-01

We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship between vitamin E and age-related cataract (ARC). The fixed- or random-effect model was selected based on heterogeneity. Meta-regression was used to explore potential sources of between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was evaluated using Begg's test. The dose-response relationship was assessed by a restricted cubic spline model. Relevant studies were identified by a search of PubMed and the Cochrane Library to May 2014, without language restrictions. Studies involved samples of people of all ages. Dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high serum tocopherol levels were significantly associated with decreased risk of ARC, the pooled relative risk was 0·73 (95% CI 0·58, 0·92), 0·86 (95% CI 0·75, 0·99) and 0·77 (95% CI 0·66, 0·91), respectively. Supplemental vitamin E intake was non-significantly associated with ARC risk (relative risk=0·92; 95% CI 0·78, 1·07). The findings from dose-response analysis showed evidence of a non-linear association between dietary vitamin E intake and ARC. The risk of ARC decreased with dietary vitamin E intake from 7 mg/d (relative risk=0·94; 95% CI 0·90, 0·97). The findings of the meta-analysis indicated that dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high level of serum tocopherol might be significantly associated with reduced ARC risk.

Three Studies Point to Same Risk Gene for Age-Related Macular Degeneration

Science.gov (United States)

... point to same risk gene for age-related macular degeneration NIH-funded research helps unravel the biology of ... rare, but powerful risk factor for age-related macular degeneration (AMD), a common cause of vision loss in ...

Nuclear fuel cycle risk assessment: survey and computer compilation of risk-related literature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yates, K.R.; Schreiber, A.M.; Rudolph, A.W.

1982-10-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has initiated the Fuel Cycle Risk Assessment Program to provide risk assessment methods for assistance in the regulatory process for nuclear fuel cycle facilities other than reactors. Both the once-through cycle and plutonium recycle are being considered. A previous report generated by this program defines and describes fuel cycle facilities, or elements, considered in the program. This report, the second from the program, describes the survey and computer compilation of fuel cycle risk-related literature. Sources of available information on the design, safety, and risk associated with the defined set of fuel cycle elements were searched and documents obtained were catalogued and characterized with respect to fuel cycle elements and specific risk/safety information. Both US and foreign surveys were conducted. Battelle's computer-based BASIS information management system was used to facilitate the establishment of the literature compilation. A complete listing of the literature compilation and several useful indexes are included. Future updates of the literature compilation will be published periodically. 760 annotated citations are included

Risk and return: Long-run relations, fractional cointegration, and return predictability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bollerslev, Tim; Osterrieder, Daniela; Sizova, Natalia

2013-01-01

Univariate dependencies in market volatility, both objective and risk neutral, are best described by long-memory fractionally integrated processes. Meanwhile, the ex post difference, or the variance swap payoff reflecting the reward for bearing volatility risk, displays far less persistent dynamics...... are consistent with generalized long-run risk models and help explain why classical efforts of establishing a naïve return-volatility relation fail. We also estimate a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregression (CFVAR). The model-implied long-run equilibrium relation between the two variance variables...

Meat intake and risk of bladder cancer: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chaojun; Jiang, Hai

2012-06-01

Meat consumption is inconsistently associated with the development of bladder cancer in several epidemiological studies. We performed a meta-analysis of evidence for relationships of meat consumption with risk of bladder cancer. Literature searches were conducted to identify peer-reviewed manuscripts published up to October 2010. Twenty publications from 10 cohort studies and 11 case-control studies were included in the analyses. We quantified associations with bladder cancer using meta-analysis of relative risk (RR) associated with the highest versus the lowest category of meat intake using random effect model. Pooled results indicate that overall meat intake was not related to the risk of bladder cancer (RR = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.80-1.27), while high red and processed meat consumer had a significantly increased 17 and 10% risk, respectively, when comparing the highest with the lowest category of meat intake. In subgroup analyses, studies conduced in Unites States/Canada exhibited a positive relationship between high meat intake and bladder cancer risk, and studies using self-administered questionnaires for exposure assessment also showed a significant increased relative risk for high meat consumers. However, because of borderline significance and small number of publications in individual analyses, more studies, particularly well-designed prospective studies, are needed to confirm these findings.

A partner-related risk behavior index to identify people at elevated risk for sexually transmitted infections.

Science.gov (United States)

Crosby, Richard; Shrier, Lydia A

2013-04-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and test a sexual-partner-related risk behavior index to identify high-risk individuals most likely to have a sexually transmitted infection (STI). Patients from five STI and adolescent medical clinics in three US cities were recruited (N = 928; M age = 29.2 years). Data were collected using audio-computer-assisted self-interviewing. Of seven sexual-partner-related variables, those that were significantly associated with the outcomes were combined into a partner-related risk behavior index. The dependent variables were laboratory-confirmed infection with Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and/or Trichomonas vaginalis. Nearly one-fifth of the sample (169/928; 18.4%) tested positive for an STI. Three of the seven items were significantly associated with having one or more STIs: sex with a newly released prisoner, sex with a person known or suspected of having an STI, and sexual concurrency. In combined form, this three-item index was significantly associated with STI prevalence (p one or more of three STIs. This index could be used to prioritize and guide intensified clinic-based counseling for high-risk patients of STI and other clinics.

Some risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed El Hachemi Mazighi

2004-01-01

Traditionally guided by long-term contracts, the international natural gas trade is experiencing new methods of operating, based on the short term and more flexibility. Today, indeed, the existence of uncommitted quantities of natural gas, combined with gas price discrepancies among different regions of the world, gives room for the expansion of the spot-trading of gas. The main objective of this paper is to discuss three fundamental risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas: volume risk, price risk and infrastructure risk. The defenders Of globalisation argue that the transition from the long-term to the short-term trading of natural gas is mainly a question of access to gas reserves, decreasing costs of gas liquefaction, the building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fleets and regasification facilities and third-party access to the infrastructure. This process needs to be as short as possible, so that the risks related to the transition process will disappear rapidly. On the other hand, the detractors of globalisation put the emphasis on the complexity of the gas value chain and on the fact that eliminating long- term contracts increases the risks inherent to the international natural gas business. In this paper, we try to untangle and assess the risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas. Our main conclusions are: the short-term trading of gas is far from riskless; volume risk requires stock-building in both consuming and producing countries. (author)

Relative risk of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: a spatial analysis in urban area.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valdelaine Etelvina Miranda de Araújo

2013-11-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL is a vector-borne disease whose factors involved in transmission are poorly understood, especially in more urban and densely populated counties. In Brazil, the VL urbanization is a challenge for the control program. The goals were to identify the greater risk areas for human VL and the risk factors involved in transmission. METHODOLOGY: This is an ecological study on the relative risk of human VL. Spatial units of analysis were the coverage areas of the Basic Health Units (146 small-areas of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Human VL cases, from 2007 to 2009 (n = 412, were obtained in the Brazilian Reportable Disease Information System. Bayesian approach was used to model the relative risk of VL including potential risk factors involved in transmission (canine infection, socioeconomic and environmental features and to identify the small-areas of greater risk to human VL. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The relative risk of VL was shown to be correlated with income, education, and the number of infected dogs per inhabitants. The estimates of relative risk of VL were higher than 1.0 in 54% of the areas (79/146. The spatial modeling highlighted 14 areas with the highest relative risk of VL and 12 of them are concentrated in the northern region of the city. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial analysis used in this study is useful for the identification of small-areas according to risk of human VL and presents operational applicability in control and surveillance program in an urban environment with an unequal spatial distribution of the disease. Thus the frequent monitoring of relative risk of human VL in small-areas is important to direct and prioritize the actions of the control program in urban environment, especially in big cities.

Risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration.

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Michael L; Francis, Peter J; Ferris, Frederick L; Hamon, Sara C; Clemons, Traci E

2011-12-01

To design a risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) incorporating phenotypic, demographic, environmental, and genetic risk factors. We evaluated longitudinal data from 2846 participants in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. At baseline, these individuals had all levels of AMD, ranging from none to unilateral advanced AMD (neovascular or geographic atrophy). Follow-up averaged 9.3 years. We performed a Cox proportional hazards analysis with demographic, environmental, phenotypic, and genetic covariates and constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. Performance of the model was evaluated using the C statistic and the Brier score and externally validated in participants in the Complications of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Prevention Trial. The final model included the following independent variables: age, smoking history, family history of AMD (first-degree member), phenotype based on a modified Age-Related Eye Disease Study simple scale score, and genetic variants CFH Y402H and ARMS2 A69S. The model did well on performance measures, with very good discrimination (C statistic = 0.872) and excellent calibration and overall performance (Brier score at 5 years = 0.08). Successful external validation was performed, and a risk assessment tool was designed for use with or without the genetic component. We constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. The model performed well on measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance and was successfully externally validated. This risk assessment tool is available for online use.

A combined approach to investigate the toxicity of an industrial landfill's leachate: Chemical analyses, risk assessment and in vitro assays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baderna, D.; Maggioni, S.; Boriani, E.; Gemma, S.; Molteni, M.; Lombardo, A.; Colombo, A.; Bordonali, S.; Rotella, G.; Lodi, M.; Benfenati, E.

2011-01-01

Solid wastes constitute an important and emerging problem. Landfills are still one of the most common ways to manage waste disposal. The risk assessment of pollutants from landfills is becoming a major environmental issue in Europe, due to the large number of sites and to the importance of groundwater protection. Furthermore, there is lack of knowledge for the environmental, ecotoxicological and toxicological characteristics of most contaminants contained into landfill leacheates. Understanding leachate composition and creating an integrated strategy for risk assessment are currently needed to correctly face the landfill issues and to make projections on the long-term impacts of a landfill, with particular attention to the estimation of possible adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. In the present study, we propose an integrated strategy to evaluate the toxicity of the leachate using chemical analyses, risk assessment guidelines and in vitro assays using the hepatoma HepG2 cells as a model. The approach was applied on a real case study: an industrial waste landfill in northern Italy for which data on the presence of leachate contaminants are available from the last 11 years. Results from our ecological risk models suggest important toxic effects on freshwater fish and small rodents, mainly due to ammonia and inorganic constituents. Our results from in vitro data show an inhibition of cell proliferation by leachate at low doses and cytotoxic effect at high doses after 48 h of exposure. - Research highlights: → We study the toxicity of leachate from a non-hazardous industrial waste landfill. → We perform chemical analyses, risk assessments and in vitro assays on HepG2 cells. → Risk models suggest toxic effects due to ammonia and inorganic constituents. → In vitro assays show that leachate inhibits cell proliferation at low doses. → Leachate can induce cytotoxic effects on HepG2 cells at high doses.

A unified framework for risk and vulnerability analysis covering both safety and security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje

2007-01-01

Recently, we have seen several attempts to establish adequate risk and vulnerability analyses tools and related management frameworks dealing not only with accidental events but also security problems. These attempts have been based on different analysis approaches and using alternative building blocks. In this paper, we discuss some of these and show how a unified framework for such analyses and management tasks can be developed. The framework is based on the use of probability as a measure of uncertainty, as seen through the eyes of the assessor, and define risk as the combination of possible consequences and related uncertainties. Risk and vulnerability characterizations are introduced incorporating ideas both from vulnerability analyses literature as well as from the risk classification scheme introduced by Renn and Klinke

Confusing Relative Risk with Absolute Risk Is Associated with More Enthusiastic Beliefs about the Value of Cancer Screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Caverly, Tanner J; Prochazka, Allan V; Binswanger, Ingrid A; Kutner, Jean S; Matlock, Daniel D

2014-07-01

Reviews of how data are presented in medical literature document that the benefit from an intervention is often exaggerated relative to the harm (e.g., relative risk for benefit and absolute risk for harm). Such mismatched presentations may create unwarranted enthusiasm, especially among those who misinterpret the statistics presented. The objective was to determine whether misinterpretation of risk data predicts enthusiasm for cancer screening. The authors administered a survey with 14 items assessing beliefs about cancer screening and 6 items measuring data interpretation ability. Multiple linear regression was used to evaluate the association between data interpretation and enthusiasm for cancer screening, with adjustment for gender and year graduated from medical school. Eighty-eight of 139 physicians at a state-wide professional meeting returned completed surveys (63% response rate). Lower data interpretation scores were associated with higher enthusiasm for cancer screening scores (P = 0.004) in the adjusted primary analysis. Confusing relative risk with absolute risk appeared to drive the overall association. Biased presentations of risk data could affect general beliefs about the value of cancer screening, especially among physicians who uncritically accept mismatched presentations of data. © The Author(s) 2014.

Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the exposure risk on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Based upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high exposure risk. As a consequence the following recommendations are presented: occupationally exposed persons with small exposure risk should be monitored using only a long-term desimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence desimeter). In the case of internal exposure, the surface and air contamination levels should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed

PREVALENCE, RISK FACTORS AND SOCIO DEMOGRAPHIC CO-RELATES OF ADOLESCENT HYPERTENSION IN DISTRICT GHAZIABAD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gajendra Kumar Gupta

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Hypertension is a chronic condition of concern due to its role in the causation of coronary heart disease, stroke and other  complications. It is one of the major risk factors for cardio-vascular mortality accounting for 20-50% of all deaths. Children with higher blood pressure tend to maintain those levels during adulthood also. Objectives:  Assess the prevalence of hypertension in adolescents (11-18 years, its risk factors and their socio-demographic co-relates. Material and Method:  Prevalence of adolescent hypertension in previous studies was 7% and the sample size accordingly came to be 1314 with a relative precision of 20%. Multistage sampling technique was used. Half each of the sample size was covered in urban and rural areas . Households in the selected colonies in the urban areas and villages were randomly selected and the adolescents interviewed and examined. Their responses were recorded on a pretested questionnaire and results drawn. Data were analysed using Epi-info and SPSS and chi-square test applied. Results:   Prevalence of adolescent hypertension was found to be 5.3% (72 out of 1340; significantly associated with type of family (P<0.001, educational status (P<0.001, occupation (P<0.001, BMI (P<0.01, and smoking habit (P<0.05. However, no relationship of hypertension was found with salt intake, type of diet, exercise, alcohol consumption, stress and family history of hypertension. Conclusion: Socio-demographic factors certainly influence the prevalence and probability of occurrence of adolescent hypertension but the effect of established risk factors (for adult hypertension needs to be further evaluated for adolescent hypertension and more studies are required in this area.

Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

1995-01-01

This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

Risk communication related to animal products derived from biotechnology.

Science.gov (United States)

McCrea, D

2005-04-01

Previous chapters of this review have dealt with the key considerations related to the application of biotechnology in veterinary science and animal production. This article explores the theory and practice of risk communication and sets out the basic principles for good risk communication when dealing with new technologies, uncertainty, and cautious and sceptical consumers. After failure to communicate with consumers and stakeholders about the risk to human health from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the 1990s, Government Agencies in the United Kingdom have made significant improvements in risk communication. The official inquiry that followed the BSE crisis concluded that a policy of openness was the correct approach, and this article emphasises the importance of consultation, consistency and transparency. There are, however, many different factors that affect public perception of risk (religious, political, social, cultural, etc.) and developing effective risk communication strategies must take all of these complex issues into consideration.

From volatility to value: analysing and managing financial and performance risk in energy savings projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mills, Evan; Kromer, Steve; Weiss, Gary; Mathew, Paul A.

2006-01-01

Many energy-related investments are made without a clear financial understanding of their values, risks, and volatilities. In the face of this uncertainty, the investor-such as a building owner or an energy service company-will often choose to implement only the most certain and thus limited energy-efficiency measures. Conversely, commodities traders and other sophisticated investors accustomed to evaluating investments on a value, risk, and volatility basis often overlook energy-efficiency investments because risk and volatility information are not provided. Fortunately, energy-efficiency investments easily lend themselves to such analysis using tools similar to those applied to supply side risk management. Accurate and robust analysis demands a high level of understanding of the physical aspects of energy-efficiency, which enables the translation of physical performance data into the language of investment. With a risk management analysis framework in place, the two groups-energy-efficiency experts and investment decision-makers-can exchange the information they need to expand investment in demand-side energy projects. In this article, we first present the case for financial risk analysis in energy efficiency in the buildings sector. We then describe techniques and examples of how to identify, quantify, and manage risk. Finally, we describe emerging market-based opportunities in risk management for energy efficiency

Cause-Specific Mortality after Stroke: Relation to Age, Sex, Stroke Severity, and Risk Factors in a 10-Year Follow-Up Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mogensen, UB; Olsen, TS; Andersen, KK

2013-01-01

We investigated cause-specific mortality in relation to age, sex, stroke severity, and cardiovascular risk factor profile in the Copenhagen Stroke Study cohort with 10 years of follow-up. In a Copenhagen community, all patients admitted to the hospital with stroke during 1992-1993 (n = 988) were.......2% for nonvascular disease. Death after stroke was associated with older age, male sex, greater stroke severity, and diabetes regardless of the cause of death. Previous stroke and hemorrhagic stroke were associated with death by stroke, ischemic heart disease was associated with death by heart/arterial disease...... registered on admission. Evaluation included stroke severity, computed tomography scan, and a cardiovascular risk profile. Cause of death within 10 years according to death certificate information was classified as stroke, heart/arterial disease, or nonvascular disease. Competing-risks analyses were...

Alcohol-Related Problems And High Risk Sexual Behaviour In ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

There was a significant association between alcohol-related problems and risky sexual behavior. Alcohol-related problems are fairly common in people already infected with HIV/AIDS and are associated with high-risk sexual behavior. Thus, screening and treatment should be part of an effective HIV intervention program.

What are the Main Risk Factors for Running-Related Injuries?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Saragiotto, B.T.; Yamato, T.P.; Hespanhol, L.C.; Rainbow, M.J.; Davis, I.S.; Lopes, A.D.

2014-01-01

Background: Despite several studies that have been conducted on running injuries, the risk factors for running-related injuries are still not clear in the literature. Objective: The aim of this study was to systematically review prospective cohort studies that investigated the risk factors for

Simple probabilistic method for relative risk evaluation of nuclear terrorism events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Songbai; Wu Jun

2006-01-01

On the basis of the event-tree and probability analysis methods, a probabilistic method of nuclear terrorism risk was built, and the risk of terrorism events was analyzed. With the statistical data for and hypothetical data for relative events, the relative probabilities of the four kinds of nuclear terrorism events were obtained, as well as the relative risks of these four kinds of nuclear terrorism events were calculated by using this probabilistic method. The illustrated case show that the descending sequence of damages from the four kinds of nuclear terrorism events for single event is as following: nuclear explosive and improvised nuclear explosive, nuclear facility attacked, and 'dirty bomb'. Under the hypothetical condition, the descending sequence of possibilities for the four kinds of nuclear terrorism events is as following: 'dirty bomb', nuclear facility attacked, improvised nuclear explosive and nuclear explosive, but the descending sequence of risks is as following: 'dirty bomb', improvised nuclear explosive, nuclear facility attacked, and nuclear explosive . (authors)

Youth at risk of physical inactivity may benefit more from activity-related support than youth not at risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Schmalz Dorothy L

2006-03-01

Full Text Available Background This study examines whether associations between activity-related support and adolescents' physical activity differ for adolescents at high versus low risk of physical inactivity. Methods: Participants included 202 middle-school-aged girls (N = 92 and boys (N = 110. Physical activity was assessed using three self-report questionnaires. Activity-related support from mothers, fathers, siblings, and peers was assessed using the Activity Support Scale. Perceived sport competence was assessed using the Physical Activity Self Description Questionnaire. Participants' height and weight were measured and used to calculate their age- and sex-adjusted Body Mass Index percentile. Participants were classified as being at high risk for physical inactivity if they fulfilled two of the following three criteria: (1 overweight; (2 female; or (3 having low perceived sport competence. Results: Activity-related support from all sources was associated with higher levels of physical activity among adolescents. A stronger association between activity support and physical activity was found for adolescents at high risk for physical inactivity in comparison to adolescents at low risk. Conclusions: Findings from this study suggest that the activity-related support from family and friends may be an effective tool in promoting physical activity among youth at risk of physical inactivity.

THE EVOLUTION OF RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCH: CHANGES IN KNOWLEDGE MAPS

OpenAIRE

Iwona Gorzeń-Mitka

2017-01-01

One of the leading trends in modern academic research is risk management. Over the years, the approach to risk management has changed and affected many different areas. This study aims to investigate changes in risk management and trends of risk management in the past 20 years. Risk management related publications from 1990 to 2016 were retrieved from the Web of Science and Scopus databases. VOS viewer software was used to analyse the research trend. Literature growth related to risk manageme...

Risk for attempted suicide in children and youths after contact with somatic hospitals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Erik; Stenager, E

2012-01-01

A range of studies have found an association between some somatic diseases and increased risk of suicide and attempted suicide. These studies are mostly analyses of adult populations and illnesses related to adulthood.......A range of studies have found an association between some somatic diseases and increased risk of suicide and attempted suicide. These studies are mostly analyses of adult populations and illnesses related to adulthood....

Diabetes related risk factors did not explain the increased risk for urinary incontinence among women with diabetes. The Norwegian HUNT/EPINCONT study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Midthjell Kristian

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous studies have shown an association between diabetes mellitus (DM and urinary incontinence (UI in women, especially severe UI. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether diabetes related variables could explain this association. Methods The study is part of the EPINCONT study, which is based on the large Nord-Trøndelag Health Study 2 (HUNT 2, performed in the county of Nord-Trøndelag, Norway, during the years 1995 - 1997. Questions on diabetes and UI were answered by a total of 21 057 women aged 20 years and older. Of these 685 were identified as having diabetes, and thus comprise the population of our study. A variety of clinical and biochemical variables were recorded from the participants. Results Blood-glucose, HbA1c, albumine:creatinine ratio (ACR, duration of diabetes, diabetes treatment, type of diabetes, cholesterol and triglycerides did not significantly differ in women with and without UI in crude analyses. However, the diabetic women with UI had more hospitalizations during the last 12 months, more homecare, and a higher prevalence of angina and use of oestrogene treatment (both local and oral/patch. After adjusting for age, BMI, parity and smoking, there were statistically significant associations between any UI and angina (OR 1.89; 95% CI: 1.22 - 2.93, homecare (OR 1.72; 95% CI: 1.02 - 2.89, and hospitalization during the last 12 months (OR 1.67; 95% CI: 1.18 - 2.38. In adjusted analyses severe UI was also significantly associated with the same variables, and also with diabetes drug treatment (OR 2.10; 95% CI: 1.07 - 4.10 and stroke (OR 2.47; 95% CI: 1.09 - 5.59. Conclusion No single diabetes related risk factor seems to explain the increased risk for UI among women with diabetes. However, we found associations between UI and some clinical correlates of diabetes.

Beliefs, barriers, social support, and environmental influences related to diabetes risk behaviours among women with a history of gestational diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Razee, Husna; van der Ploeg, Hidde P; Blignault, Ilse; Smith, Ben J; Bauman, Adrian E; McLean, Mark; Wah Cheung, N

2010-08-01

Women with previous gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) are at increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes; this risk is higher in non-Caucasian women. This study explored the beliefs, attitudes, social support, environmental influences and other factors related to diabetes risk behaviours among Arabic, Cantonese/Mandarin, and English speaking women with recent GDM. Women living in the Sydney metropolitan area (Australia) who had GDM 6-36 months previously were included. In-depth semi-structured telephone interviews on women's experiences and perceptions of GDM and the lifestyle risk factors for developing type 2 diabetes were conducted in the language participants spoke at home (n=20 Arabic, 20 Cantonese/Mandarin, 17 English). Data were analysed for underlying themes using NVivo software. Mental distress, role perceptions, social support and cultural expectations were major issues related to women's struggles to find the right balance between the large proportion of household and child care responsibilities and leading a healthy lifestyle. Women's ability to follow a healthy lifestyle is embedded in their psychological wellbeing and the social and cultural context of their lives. The study highlights the need for a holistic approach that ensures personal support and access to services as well as lifestyle specific programs.

Use of benzodiazepines or benzodiazepine related drugs and the risk of cancer: a population-based case-control study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pottegård, Anton; Friis, Søren; Andersen, Morten

2013-01-01

AIM: Studies of the carcinogenic potential of benzodiazepines and related drugs (BZRD) have been equivocal. A recent study reported a 35% excess cancer risk among users of hypnotics, including benzodiazepines. METHOD: Using Danish nationwide registers, we conducted a matched case-control study...... of the association between BZRD and cancer risk. During 1 January 2002 and 31 December 2009, we identified 152 510 cases with a first time cancer who were matched (1:8) by age and gender to 1,220,317 cancer-free controls. A new-user design was applied by excluding all subjects who had used anxiolytics, hypnotics.......02), liver 1.81 (95% CI 1.18, 2.80), lung 1.38 (95% CI 1.23, 1.54), pancreas 1.35 (95% CI 1.02, 1.79) and kidney 1.39 (95% CI 1.01, 1.91). For tobacco-related cancers, the OR was 1.15 (95% CI 1.09, 1.22) and for the remaining cancer sites 1.01 (95% CI 0.94, 1.08). Sub-group analyses revealed only small...

Genetic variants in STAT4 and HLA-DQ genes confer risk of hepatitis B virus–related hepatocellular carcinoma

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, De-Ke; Sun, Jielin; Cao, Guangwen; Liu, Yao; Lin, Dongxin; Gao, Yu-Zhen; Ren, Wei-Hua; Long, Xi-Dai; Zhang, Hongxing; Ma, Xiao-Pin; Wang, Zhong; Jiang, Wei; Chen, Tao-Yang; Gao, Yong; Sun, Liang-Dan; Long, Ji-Rong; Huang, Hui-Xing; Wang, Dan; Yu, Hongjie; Zhang, Pengyin; Tang, Li-Sha; Peng, Bo; Cai, Hao; Liu, Ting-Ting; Zhou, Ping; Liu, Fang; Lin, Xiaoling; Tao, Sha; Wan, Bo; Sai-Yin, He-Xi Ge; Qin, Lun-Xiu; Yin, Jianhua; Liu, Li; Wu, Chen; Pei, Yan; Zhou, Yuan-Feng; Zhai, Yun; Lu, Pei-Xin; Tan, Aihua; Zuo, Xian-Bo; Fan, Jia; Chang, Jiang; Gu, Xiaoli; Wang, Neng-Jin; Li, Yang; Liu, Yin-Kun; Zhai, Kan; Zhang, Hongwei; Hu, Zhibin; Liu, Jun; Yi, Qing; Xiang, Yongbing; Shi, Rong; Ding, Qiang; Zheng, Wei; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Mo, Zengnan; Shugart, Yin Yao; Zhang, Xue-Jun; Zhou, Gangqiao; Shen, Hongbing; Zheng, S Lilly; Xu, Jianfeng; Yu, Long

2013-01-01

To identify genetic susceptibility loci for hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the Chinese population, we carried out a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 2,514 chronic HBV carriers (1,161 HCC cases and 1,353 controls) followed by a 2-stage validation among 6 independent populations of chronic HBV carriers (4,319 cases and 4,966 controls). The joint analyses showed that HCC risk was significantly associated with two independent loci: rs7574865 at STAT4, Pmeta = 2.48 × 10−10, odds ratio (OR) = 1.21; and rs9275319 at HLA-DQ, Pmeta = 2.72 × 10−17, OR = 1.49. The risk allele G at rs7574865 was significantly associated with lower mRNA levels of STAT4 in both the HCC tissues and nontumor tissues of 155 individuals with HBV-related HCC (Ptrend = 0.0008 and 0.0002, respectively). We also found significantly lower mRNA expression of STAT4 in HCC tumor tissues compared with paired adjacent nontumor tissues (P = 2.33 × 10−14). PMID:23242368

Genetic variants in STAT4 and HLA-DQ genes confer risk of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, De-Ke; Sun, Jielin; Cao, Guangwen; Liu, Yao; Lin, Dongxin; Gao, Yu-Zhen; Ren, Wei-Hua; Long, Xi-Dai; Zhang, Hongxing; Ma, Xiao-Pin; Wang, Zhong; Jiang, Wei; Chen, Tao-Yang; Gao, Yong; Sun, Liang-Dan; Long, Ji-Rong; Huang, Hui-Xing; Wang, Dan; Yu, Hongjie; Zhang, Pengyin; Tang, Li-Sha; Peng, Bo; Cai, Hao; Liu, Ting-Ting; Zhou, Ping; Liu, Fang; Lin, Xiaoling; Tao, Sha; Wan, Bo; Sai-Yin, He-Xi Ge; Qin, Lun-Xiu; Yin, Jianhua; Liu, Li; Wu, Chen; Pei, Yan; Zhou, Yuan-Feng; Zhai, Yun; Lu, Pei-Xin; Tan, Aihua; Zuo, Xian-Bo; Fan, Jia; Chang, Jiang; Gu, Xiaoli; Wang, Neng-Jin; Li, Yang; Liu, Yin-Kun; Zhai, Kan; Zhang, Hongwei; Hu, Zhibin; Liu, Jun; Yi, Qing; Xiang, Yongbing; Shi, Rong; Ding, Qiang; Zheng, Wei; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Mo, Zengnan; Shugart, Yin Yao; Zhang, Xue-Jun; Zhou, Gangqiao; Shen, Hongbing; Zheng, S Lilly; Xu, Jianfeng; Yu, Long

2013-01-01

To identify genetic susceptibility loci for hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the Chinese population, we carried out a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 2,514 chronic HBV carriers (1,161 HCC cases and 1,353 controls) followed by a 2-stage validation among 6 independent populations of chronic HBV carriers (4,319 cases and 4,966 controls). The joint analyses showed that HCC risk was significantly associated with two independent loci: rs7574865 at STAT4, P(meta) = 2.48 × 10(-10), odds ratio (OR) = 1.21; and rs9275319 at HLA-DQ, P(meta) = 2.72 × 10(-17), OR = 1.49. The risk allele G at rs7574865 was significantly associated with lower mRNA levels of STAT4 in both the HCC tissues and nontumor tissues of 155 individuals with HBV-related HCC (P(trend) = 0.0008 and 0.0002, respectively). We also found significantly lower mRNA expression of STAT4 in HCC tumor tissues compared with paired adjacent nontumor tissues (P = 2.33 × 10(-14)).

Medication-related risk factors associated with health-related quality of life among community-dwelling elderly in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Sha; Meng, Long; Qiu, Feng; Yang, Jia-Dan; Sun, Shusen

2018-01-01

Previous studies have demonstrated that medication adherence has an impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). However, other medication-related factors that may influence HRQoL have not been extensively studied, especially factors based on the Medication-Risk Questionnaire (MRQ), and such studies are mostly done in Western countries. Our objective was to explore risk factors associated with HRQoL among community-dwelling elderly with chronic diseases in mainland China, especially the medication-related risk factors regarding MRQ. The study was conducted in a community health service center through surveys to eligible patients. The main outcomes of HRQoL were assessed by the EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) scale and EQ-visual analog scale (EQ-VAS). Medication-related risk factors according to MRQ associated with HRQoL were identified using a multiple linear regression. A total of 311 patients were analyzed, averaging 71.19±5.33 years, and 68.8% were female. The mean EQ-5D index was 0.72±0.09, and the mean EQ-VAS score was 71.37±11.97. The most prevalent problem was pain/discomfort, and 90.0% believed that they could take care of themselves without any problems. Sex, age, educational level, frailty, function status, and certain medication-related factors regarding MRQ were found to be significant factors impacting the HRQoL. A multivariate analysis showed that MRQ factors of polypharmacy, multimorbidity, feeling difficultly with taking medicines as prescribed, and taking medicines with narrow therapeutic index had negative impacts on the quality of life. Patient's internal characteristics and medication-related risk factors according to MRQ were associated with quality of life. The results of the MRQ is an indicator of quality of life that can identify patients who need interventions.

Community Perceptions of Air Pollution and Related Health Risks in Nairobi Slums

Science.gov (United States)

Egondi, Thaddaeus; Kyobutungi, Catherine; Ng, Nawi; Muindi, Kanyiva; Oti, Samuel; van de Vijver, Steven; Ettarh, Remare; Rocklöv, Joacim

2013-01-01

Air pollution is among the leading global risks for mortality and responsible for increasing risk for chronic diseases. Community perceptions on exposure are critical in determining people’s response and acceptance of related policies. Therefore, understanding people’ perception is critical in informing the design of appropriate intervention measures. The aim of this paper was to establish levels and associations between perceived pollution and health risk perception among slum residents. A cross-sectional study of 5,317 individuals aged 35+ years was conducted in two slums of Nairobi. Association of perceived score and individual characteristics was assessed using linear regression. Spatial variation in the perceived levels was determined through hot spot analysis using ArcGIS. The average perceived air pollution level was higher among residents in Viwandani compared to those in Korogocho. Perceived air pollution level was positively associated with perceived health risks. The majority of respondents were exposed to air pollution in their place of work with 66% exposed to at least two sources of air pollution. Less than 20% of the respondents in both areas mentioned sources related to indoor pollution. The perceived air pollution level and related health risks in the study community were lowamong the residents indicating the need for promoting awareness on air pollution sources and related health risks. PMID:24157509

Urban-Hazard Risk Analysis: Mapping of Heat-Related Risks in the Elderly in Major Italian Cities

Science.gov (United States)

Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Gioli, Beniamino; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Toscano, Piero; Di Stefano, Valentina; Orlandini, Simone; Gensini, Gian Franco

2015-01-01

Background Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks. Objectives Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥65). Methods A long time-series (2001–2013) of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m) daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST). LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1) the Linear Regression Model (LRM); 2) the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m) from the 2001 census (Eurostat source), and processed together using “Crichton’s Risk Triangle” hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI). Results The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk) were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities. Conclusions This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public

Interruption of antiretroviral therapy and risk of cardiovascular disease in persons with HIV-1 infection: exploratory analyses from the SMART trial

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Phillips, Andrew N; Carr, Andrew; Neuhaus, Jacquie

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: The SMART trial found a raised risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in patients undergoing CD4+ T cell-count guided intermittent antiretroviral therapy (ART) compared with patients on continuous ART. Exploratory analyses were performed to better understand the reasons for this ...

Management of the radon-related risk. Guide for local authorities. Guide for employers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Struillou, Yves; Gupta, Olivier

2017-01-01

A first guide aims at being an aid to decision by specifying obligations of local authorities as owners of buildings open to public or as employers, but also at being a support for their health and social actions in terms of information on radon risk in housing. After a presentation of the risk related to radon (health risks, radon propagation, regulatory areas concerned by radon risk management in France), the report indicates the various obligations and mandatory actions for local authorities as building owner and as employer, and actions to be undertaken for existing and new buildings. Technical sheets are provided regarding radon detection, certifications, simple actions, technical diagnosis, remediation works, efficiency control of technical solutions, expert in radiation protection. The second guide aims at being an aid to decision by specifying obligations for employers in terms of management of radon-related risk to which some workers might be exposed, and at providing some good practice recommendations. After a presentation of the risk related to radon (health risks, radon propagation, regulatory areas concerned by radon risk management in France), the report addresses how to organise the radon-related risk management, how to measure radon in work places, how to interpret results and which actions to undertake. Technical sheets are provided regarding radon detection, certifications, simple actions, technical diagnosis, remediation works, efficiency control of technical solutions, expert in radiation protection

The association between health-related quality-of-life scores and clinical outcomes in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer patients: Exploratory analyses of AFFIRM and PREVAIL studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Beer, Tomasz M; Miller, Kurt; Tombal, Bertrand; Cella, David; Phung, De; Holmstrom, Stefan; Ivanescu, Cristina; Skaltsa, Konstantina; Naidoo, Shevani

2017-12-01

Our exploratory analysis examined the association between health-related quality of life (HRQoL) (baseline and change over time) and clinical outcomes (overall survival [OS]/radiographic progression-free survival [rPFS]) in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). HRQoL, OS and rPFS were assessed in phase III trials comparing enzalutamide with placebo in chemotherapy-naïve (PREVAIL; NCT01212991) or post-chemotherapy (AFFIRM; NCT00974311) mCRPC. HRQoL was assessed using the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Prostate (FACT-P). Multivariate analyses evaluated the prognostic significance of baseline and time-dependent scores after adjusting for treatment and clinical/demographic variables. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) represented the hazard of rPFS or OS per minimally important difference (MID) score change in HRQoL variables. In baseline and time-dependent multivariate analyses, OS was independently associated with multiple HRQoL measures across both studies. In time-dependent analyses, a 10-point (upper bound of MID range) increase (improvement) in FACT-P total score was associated with reductions in mortality risk of 19% in AFFIRM (HR 0.81 [95% CI 0.78-0.84]) and 21% in PREVAIL (HR 0.79 [0.76-0.83]). For baseline analyses, a 10-point increase in FACT-P total score was associated with reductions in mortality risk of 12% (HR 0.88 [0.84-0.93]) and 10% (HR 0.90 [0.86-0.95]) in AFFIRM and PREVAIL, respectively. rPFS was associated with a subset of HRQoL domains in both studies. Several baseline HRQoL domains were prognostic for rPFS and OS in patients with mCRPC, and this association was maintained during treatment, indicating that changes in HRQoL are informative for patients' expected survival. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prospect relativity: how choice options influence decision under risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Neil; Chater, Nick; Stott, Henry P; Reimers, Stian

2003-03-01

In many theories of decision under risk (e.g., expected utility theory, rank-dependent utility theory, and prospect theory), the utility of a prospect is independent of other options in the choice set. The experiments presented here show a large effect of the available options, suggesting instead that prospects are valued relative to one another. The judged certainty equivalent for a prospect is strongly influenced by the options available. Similarly, the selection of a preferred prospect is strongly influenced by the prospects available. Alternative theories of decision under risk (e.g., the stochastic difference model, multialternative decision field theory, and range frequency theory), where prospects are valued relative to one another, can provide an account of these context effects.

Use of results of microbiological analyses for risk-based control of Listeria monocytogenes in marinated broiler legs.

Science.gov (United States)

Aarnisalo, Kaarina; Vihavainen, Elina; Rantala, Leila; Maijala, Riitta; Suihko, Maija-Liisa; Hielm, Sebastian; Tuominen, Pirkko; Ranta, Jukka; Raaska, Laura

2008-02-10

Microbial risk assessment provides a means of estimating consumer risks associated with food products. The methods can also be applied at the plant level. In this study results of microbiological analyses were used to develop a robust single plant level risk assessment. Furthermore, the prevalence and numbers of Listeria monocytogenes in marinated broiler legs in Finland were estimated. These estimates were based on information on the prevalence, numbers and genotypes of L. monocytogenes in 186 marinated broiler legs from 41 retail stores. The products were from three main Finnish producers, which produce 90% of all marinated broiler legs sold in Finland. The prevalence and numbers of L. monocytogenes were estimated by Monte Carlo simulation using WinBUGS, but the model is applicable to any software featuring standard probability distributions. The estimated mean annual number of L. monocytogenes-positive broiler legs sold in Finland was 7.2x10(6) with a 95% credible interval (CI) 6.7x10(6)-7.7x10(6). That would be 34%+/-1% of the marinated broiler legs sold in Finland. The mean number of L. monocytogenes in marinated broiler legs estimated at the sell-by-date was 2 CFU/g, with a 95% CI of 0-14 CFU/g. Producer-specific L. monocytogenes strains were recovered from the products throughout the year, which emphasizes the importance of characterizing the isolates and identifying strains that may cause problems as part of risk assessment studies. As the levels of L. monocytogenes were low, the risk of acquiring listeriosis from these products proved to be insignificant. Consequently there was no need for a thorough national level risk assessment. However, an approach using worst-case and average point estimates was applied to produce an example of single producer level risk assessment based on limited data. This assessment also indicated that the risk from these products was low. The risk-based approach presented in this work can provide estimation of public health risk

Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, P.

1984-01-01

More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

Perceptions of risk from workers in high risk industries with work related musculoskeletal disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, D; Silverstein, B

2014-01-01

Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) remain a major occupational health problem, despite decades of research, outreach, and intervention. The aim of this study is to promote early identification and prevention of WMSDs by developing education and outreach materials grounded in interview data collected from workers that have recently filed for workers compensation (WC) for WMSDs. We conducted semi-structured telephone interviews with WC claimants (n=66) from high risk industries identified through the use of a Prevention Index (PI) in Washington state with WMSDs of the back, shoulder, hand/wrist, or knee. Perceptions regarding the degree of exposure to WMSD risk factors, the social construction of pain, and the potential to implement injury-prevention measures varied widely. Many workers dismissed their injuries as the result of "fluke" or "freak" occurrences and framed their exposure to risk factors for WMSDs as either inevitable or "just part of the job." Workers in high-risk industries for WMSDs described their work conditions in ways that suggested: (1) a lack of awareness of the potential for developing a WMSD, (2) a view of work-related pain as normal, and/or (3) a pattern of self-blame for WMSD onset. A paradigm that either asserts the inevitability of WMSDs or dismisses potential control measures presents both a significant barrier to injury prevention efforts as well as a major opportunity for future occupational health research.

Some risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazighi, Ahmed El Hachemi

2004-01-01

Traditionally guided by long-term contracts, the international natural gas trade is experiencing new methods of operating, based on the short term and more flexibility. Today, indeed, the existence of uncommitted quantities of natural gas, combined with gas price discrepancies among different regions of the world, gives room for the expansion of the spot-trading of gas. The main objective of this paper is to discuss three fundamental risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas: volume risk, price risk and infrastructure risk. The defenders of globalisation argue that the transition from the long-term to the short-term trading of natural gas is mainly a question of access to gas reserves, decreasing costs of gas liquefaction, the building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fleets and regasification facilities and third-party access to the infrastructure. This process needs to be as short as possible, so that the risks related to the transition process will disappear rapidly. On the other hand, the detractors of globalisation put the emphasis on the complexity of the gas value chain and on the fact that eliminating long-term contracts increases the risks inherent to the international natural gas business. In this paper, we try to untangle and assess the risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas. Our main conclusions are: the short-term trading of gas is far from riskless; volume risk requires stock-building in both consuming and producing countries; price risk, through the high volatility for gas, induces an increase in options prices; there is no evidence to suggest that money-lenders' appetite for financing gas infrastructure projects will continue in a short-term trading system. This would be a threat to consumers' security of supply. (Author)

Disentangling the risk assessment and intimate partner violence relation: Estimating mediating and moderating effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Kirk R; Stansfield, Richard

2017-08-01

To manage intimate partner violence (IPV), the criminal justice system has turned to risk assessment instruments to predict if a perpetrator will reoffend. Empirically determining whether offenders assessed as high risk are those who recidivate is critical for establishing the predictive validity of IPV risk assessment instruments and for guiding the supervision of perpetrators. But by focusing solely on the relation between calculated risk scores and subsequent IPV recidivism, previous studies of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments omitted mediating factors intended to mitigate the risk of this behavioral recidivism. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of such factors and the moderating effects of risk assessment on the relation between assessed risk (using the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised [DVSI-R]) and recidivistic IPV. Using a sample of 2,520 perpetrators of IPV, results revealed that time sentenced to jail and time sentenced to probation each significantly mediated the relation between DVSI-R risk level and frequency of reoffending. The results also revealed that assessed risk moderated the relation between these mediating factors and IPV recidivism, with reduced recidivism (negative estimated effects) for high-risk perpetrators but increased recidivism (positive estimate effects) for low-risk perpetrators. The implication is to assign interventions to the level of risk so that no harm is done. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Polygenic Risk Score Identifies Subgroup With Higher Burden of Atherosclerosis and Greater Relative Benefit From Statin Therapy in the Primary Prevention Setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Natarajan, Pradeep; Young, Robin; Stitziel, Nathan O; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Baber, Usman; Mehran, Roxana; Sartori, Samantha; Fuster, Valentin; Reilly, Dermot F; Butterworth, Adam; Rader, Daniel J; Ford, Ian; Sattar, Naveed; Kathiresan, Sekar

2017-05-30

Relative risk reduction with statin therapy has been consistent across nearly all subgroups studied to date. However, in analyses of 2 randomized controlled primary prevention trials (ASCOT [Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Lipid-Lowering Arm] and JUPITER [Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: An Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin]), statin therapy led to a greater relative risk reduction among a subgroup at high genetic risk. Here, we aimed to confirm this observation in a third primary prevention randomized controlled trial. In addition, we assessed whether those at high genetic risk had a greater burden of subclinical coronary atherosclerosis. We studied participants from a randomized controlled trial of primary prevention with statin therapy (WOSCOPS [West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study]; n=4910) and 2 observational cohort studies (CARDIA [Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults] and BioImage; n=1154 and 4392, respectively). For each participant, we calculated a polygenic risk score derived from up to 57 common DNA sequence variants previously associated with coronary heart disease. We compared the relative efficacy of statin therapy in those at high genetic risk (top quintile of polygenic risk score) versus all others (WOSCOPS), as well as the association between the polygenic risk score and coronary artery calcification (CARDIA) and carotid artery plaque burden (BioImage). Among WOSCOPS trial participants at high genetic risk, statin therapy was associated with a relative risk reduction of 44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 22-60; P statin therapy was 3.6% (95% CI, 2.0-5.1) among those in the high genetic risk group and 1.3% (95% CI, 0.6-1.9) in all others. Each 1-SD increase in the polygenic risk score was associated with 1.32-fold (95% CI, 1.04-1.68) greater likelihood of having coronary artery calcification and 9.7% higher (95% CI, 2.2-17.8) burden of carotid plaque. Those at high genetic risk have a greater

Rationality on the rise: Why relative risk aversion increases with stake size

OpenAIRE

Fehr-Duda, Helga; Bruhin, Adrian; Epper, Thomas F.; Schubert, Renate

2008-01-01

How does risk tolerance vary with stake size? This important question cannot be adequately answered if framing effects, nonlinear probability weighting, and heterogeneity of preference types are neglected. We show that, contrary to gains, no coherent change in relative risk aversion is observed for losses. The increase in relative risk aversion over gains cannot be captured by the curvature of the utility function. It is driven predominantly by a change in probability weighting of a majority ...

Characterizing users of new psychoactive substances using psychometric scales for risk-related behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vreeker, Annabel; van der Burg, Babette G.; van Laar, Margriet; Brunt, Tibor M.

2017-01-01

Studies investigating risk-related behavior in relation to new psychoactive substance (NPS) use are sparse. The current study investigated characteristics of NPS users by comparing risk-related behavior of NPS users to that of illicit drugs (ID) users and licit substances users and non-users (NLC)

War-related trauma exposure and multiple risk behaviors among school-going adolescents in Northern Uganda: the mediating role of depression symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Okello, James; Nakimuli-Mpungu, Etheldreda; Musisi, Seggane; Broekaert, Eric; Derluyn, Ilse

2013-11-01

The relationship between war-related trauma exposure, depressive symptoms and multiple risk behaviors among adolescents is less clear in sub-Saharan Africa. We analyzed data collected from a sample of school-going adolescents four years postwar. Participants completed interviews assessing various risk behaviors defined by the Youth Self Report (YSR) and a sexual risk behavior survey, and were screened for post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression symptoms based on the Impact of Events Scale Revised (IESR) and Hopkins Symptom Checklist for Adolescents (HSCL-37A) respectively. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess factors independently associated with multiple risk behaviors. The logistic regression model of Baron and Kenny (1986) was used to evaluate the mediating role of depression in the relationship between stressful war events and multiple risk behaviors. Of 551 participants, 139 (25%) reported multiple (three or more) risk behaviors in the past year. In the multivariate analyses, depression symptoms remained uniquely associated with multiple risk behavior after adjusting for potential confounders including socio-demographic characteristics, war-related trauma exposure variables, anxiety and post-traumatic stress symptoms. In mediation analysis, depression symptoms mediated the associations between stressful war events and multiple risk behaviors. The psychometric properties of the questionnaires used in this study are not well established in war affected African samples thus ethno cultural variation may decrease the validity of our measures. Adolescents with depression may be at a greater risk of increased engagement in multiple risk behaviors. Culturally sensitive and integrated interventions to treat and prevent depression among adolescents in post-conflict settings are urgently needed. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment of fall-related occupational accidents in the workplace

Science.gov (United States)

Tsukada, Tsukimi; Sakakibara, Hisataka

2016-01-01

Objectives: This study aimed to examine effective assessment methods of falls in the workplace. Methods: There were 436 employees (305 males and 131 females) of electrical appliance manufacturers included in this study. In 2014, a baseline survey was conducted using the fall scores questionnaire and the self-check risk assessment of falls and other accidents in the workplace (physical function measurement and questionnaire). In 2015, the occurrence of falls in the past year was investigated. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to examine factors relevant to falls. Results: In total, 62 subjects (14.2%) fell during the year, including those who fell during off-hours. The occurrence of falls during that one year was only associated with having experienced falls during the past year in the baseline survey (odds ratio [OR] 5.0; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.5-9.7). Falls during that year were also related to the inability to walk 1 km continuously (OR 0.1; 95% CI 0.1-0.6), tripping sometimes (OR 4.0; 95% CI 1.6-9.9), step height differences at home (OR 3.0; 95% CI 1.3-6.8), and working in the production section (OR 0.2; 95% CI 0.1-0.5). Measurements of physical functions, such as muscle strength, balance, and agility, were not different between subjects who fell and those who did not. Conclusions: Our results showed that the questionnaire assessing falls during the past year could be useful to assess the risk of falls in the workplace. Annual checks for falls may contribute to fall prevention programs in the workplace. PMID:27725487

Risk. Impact of having a first-degree relative with affective disorder

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vinberg, Maj

2016-01-01

boundaries in order to have an impact on prevention. Furthermore, there is a need to move beyond the notion of ''magic bullets'', instead developing an integrated paradigm encompassing clusters of biomarkers related to behavioural measures of developmental psychopathology. Finally, as most psychiatric...... enhanced risk and thus accelerate the onset of illness. Low-risk individuals seem to experience fewer life events and may exhibit resilience to their adverse psychological effects. Overall, having a 1st-degree relative with affective disorder matters. This thesis demonstrates that high-risk studies...... are informative, allowing observation and investigation of the pathological processes that occur prior to the onset of illness. There is a lack of prospective intervention studies assessing psychopathology in well-defined, high-risk samples and it is obvious that future research must transcend diagnostic...

Enhancing assessment of interpersonal violence (IPV) pregnancy-related homicide risk within nursing curricula.

Science.gov (United States)

Clements, Paul Thomas; Holt, Karyn E; Hasson, Catherine M; Fay-Hillier, Theresa

2011-12-01

Pregnancy and motherhood traditionally represent evolution of the next generation; yet, contemporary research and analyses confirm that this time can also be manifested in fear by the expectant mother within an environment of battering, cruelty, physical and emotional abuse, and sexual assault. Often to the surprise of many healthcare providers, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have consistently reported that Interpersonal Violence (IPV) related homicide is a leading cause of traumatic death among new and expectant mothers. In spite of these staggering statistical and anecdotal findings, universal screening for violence during pregnancy continues to be minimal. Forensic nurses might be prompted to respond to the consequences of violence and its resultant negative effects on expectant mothers by strategically incorporating systematic and consistent assessment into foundational nursing curricula regarding IPV as a leading risk factor for injury or death. © 2011 International Association of Forensic Nurses.

Risk Factors for Developing Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders during Dairy Farming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sayed Mohammad Taghavi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Dairy farming work involves frequent use of poor postures. These postures may increase the risk of developing musculoskeletal disorders among dairy workers. Objective: To assess postural load during performance of various tasks related to dairy farming. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on a dairy farm in Iran. In order to assess postural load, tasks related to dairy farming were divided into 3 categories: feeding, milking, and manure disposal. Each task was then divided into its constituent work subdivisions (tasks. Finally, the working posture for each work subdivision was evaluated using Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA. Results: Based on the results from the REBA score, the poorest risk scores (risk level 4 were associated with the following tasks: (1 manure disposal, (2 filling feed bags, and (3 pouring milk into a bucket. Other tasks such as filling corn containers, pouring corn into the milling machine, preparing the feed, pouring food into mangers, attaching the milking machine, and pouring milk from a bucket into a tank imposed high risk (risk level 3. The risk for the tasks of washing and disinfecting the udders were assessed as medium risks. Conclusion: The risk levels associated with most of the tasks on the studied farm were unacceptably high. Therefore, it is essential to implement ergonomic interventions to reduce risk levels of the tasks.

Risk Factors for Developing Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders during Dairy Farming.

Science.gov (United States)

Taghavi, Sayed Mohammad; Mokarami, Hamidreza; Ahmadi, Omran; Stallones, Lorann; Abbaspour, Asghar; Marioryad, Hossein

2017-01-01

Dairy farming work involves frequent use of poor postures. These postures may increase the risk of developing musculoskeletal disorders among dairy workers. To assess postural load during performance of various tasks related to dairy farming. This cross-sectional study was conducted on a dairy farm in Iran. In order to assess postural load, tasks related to dairy farming were divided into 3 categories: feeding, milking, and manure disposal. Each task was then divided into its constituent work subdivisions (tasks). Finally, the working posture for each work subdivision was evaluated using Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). Based on the results from the REBA score, the poorest risk scores (risk level 4) were associated with the following tasks: (1) manure disposal, (2) filling feed bags, and (3) pouring milk into a bucket. Other tasks such as filling corn containers, pouring corn into the milling machine, preparing the feed, pouring food into mangers, attaching the milking machine, and pouring milk from a bucket into a tank imposed high risk (risk level 3). The risk for the tasks of washing and disinfecting the udders were assessed as medium risks. The risk levels associated with most of the tasks on the studied farm were unacceptably high. Therefore, it is essential to implement ergonomic interventions to reduce risk levels of the tasks.

Impact of cardiovascular risk factors on medical expenditure: evidence from epidemiological studies analysing data on health checkups and medical insurance.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakamura, Koshi

2014-01-01

Concerns have increasingly been raised about the medical economic burden in Japan, of which approximately 20% is attributable to cardiovascular disease, including coronary heart disease and stroke. Because the management of risk factors is essential for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, it is important to understand the relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and medical expenditure in the Japanese population. However, only a few Japanese epidemiological studies analysing data on health checkups and medical insurance have provided evidence on this topic. Patients with cardiovascular risk factors, including obesity, hypertension, and diabetes, may incur medical expenditures through treatment of the risk factors themselves and through procedures for associated diseases that usually require hospitalization and sometimes result in death. Untreated risk factors may cause medical expenditure surges, mainly due to long-term hospitalization, more often than risk factors preventively treated by medication. On an individual patient level, medical expenditures increase with the number of concomitant cardiovascular risk factors. For single risk factors, personal medical expenditure may increase with the severity of that factor. However, on a population level, the medical economic burden attributable to cardiovascular risk factors results largely from a single, particularly prevalent risk factor, especially from mildly-to-moderately abnormal levels of the factor. Therefore, cardiovascular risk factors require management on the basis of both a cost-effective strategy of treating high-risk patients and a population strategy for reducing both the ill health and medical economic burdens that result from cardiovascular disease.

Independent risk of mechanical ventilation for AIDS-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia associated with bronchoalveolar lavage neutrophilia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bang, D.; Emborg, J.; Elkjaer, J.

2001-01-01

The use of mechanical ventilation (MV) for AIDS-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) has varied over time. The introduction of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy has changed the pathophysiology of PCP. In the present study, we attempted to identify factors predictive of severe respiratory......%). In a logistic regression analysis, higher age, increased bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) neutrophilia and a positive BAL cytomegalovirus CMV culture were associated with the need of MV. In multivariate analyses, only BAL neutrophilia remained independently predictive of mechanical ventilation. In conclusion, short......-term mortality remained high after the introduction of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy. BAL neutrophilia may be a useful prognostic marker to identify patients at high risk of requiring mechanical ventilation Udgivelsesdato: 2001/8...

Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food related hazards, based on risks for human health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, E. D.; Raley, M.

2018-01-01

This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science......, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered - based on their characteristics - into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years, multi......-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking...

Emotional reactions to alcohol-related words: Differences between low- and high-risk drinkers.

Science.gov (United States)

Gantiva, Carlos; Delgado, Rafael; Romo-González, Tania

2015-11-01

Research that has examined responses to alcohol-related words in drinkers has mostly linked such responses to memory, attentional, and perceptual bias. However, studies of emotional processing in alcoholics have not received much attention. The main goal of the present study was to identify the features and differences of emotional responses to alcohol-related words in low- and high-risk drinkers. A total of 149 low-risk drinkers and 125 high-risk drinkers evaluated five alcohol-related words and 15 words from the Affective Norms for English Words in the dimensions of valence, arousal, and dominance using the Self-Assessment Manikin. The results indicated that high-risk drinkers evaluated alcohol-related words as more appetitive and arousing. These results, together with findings in the attention and memory research literature, suggest that alcohol-related words can serve as conditioned cues in alcohol consumption. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Endogenous hormones, muscle strength, and risk of fall-related fractures in older women.

Science.gov (United States)

Sipilä, Sarianna; Heikkinen, Eino; Cheng, Sulin; Suominen, Harri; Saari, Päivi; Kovanen, Vuokko; Alén, Markku; Rantanen, Taina

2006-01-01

Among older people, fracture-causing fall often leads to health deterioration. The role of endogenous hormone status and muscle strength on fall-related fracture risk is unclear. This study investigates if, after adjustment for bone density, endogenous hormones and muscle strength would predict fall-related limb fracture incidence in older community-dwelling women followed-up over 10 years. As a part of a prospective population-based study, 187 75-year-old women were investigated. Serum estradiol, testosterone, sex hormone binding globulin, and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate concentrations were analyzed, and isometric muscle strength and bone mineral density were assessed. Fall-related limb fractures were gathered from patient records. Serum estradiol concentration was a significant predictor of fall-related limb fractures. Women with serum estradiol concentrations less than 0.022 nmol/L had a 3-fold risk (relative risk 3.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-7.36), and women with estradiol concentrations between 0.022 and 0.066 nmol/L doubled the risk (relative risk 2.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-5.19) of fall-related limb fracture compared to the women with estradiol concentrations ()above 0.066 nmol/L. Adjustment for muscle strength and bone mineral density did not materially change the risk estimates. High muscle strength was associated with a low incidence of fall-related limb fractures. This study showed that in 75-year-old women higher serum estradiol concentration and greater muscle strength were independently associated with a low incidence of fall-related limb fractures even after adjustment for bone density. Our results suggest that hormonal status and muscle strength have their own separate mechanisms protecting from fall-related fractures. This finding is of importance in developing preventive strategies, but calls for further study.

Integrative analyses of leprosy susceptibility genes indicate a common autoimmune profile.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Deng-Feng; Wang, Dong; Li, Yu-Ye; Yao, Yong-Gang

2016-04-01

Leprosy is an ancient chronic infection in the skin and peripheral nerves caused by Mycobacterium leprae. The development of leprosy depends on genetic background and the immune status of the host. However, there is no systematic view focusing on the biological pathways, interaction networks and overall expression pattern of leprosy-related immune and genetic factors. To identify the hub genes in the center of leprosy genetic network and to provide an insight into immune and genetic factors contributing to leprosy. We retrieved all reported leprosy-related genes and performed integrative analyses covering gene expression profiling, pathway analysis, protein-protein interaction network, and evolutionary analyses. A list of 123 differentially expressed leprosy related genes, which were enriched in activation and regulation of immune response, was obtained in our analyses. Cross-disorder analysis showed that the list of leprosy susceptibility genes was largely shared by typical autoimmune diseases such as lupus erythematosus and arthritis, suggesting that similar pathways might be affected in leprosy and autoimmune diseases. Protein-protein interaction (PPI) and positive selection analyses revealed a co-evolution network of leprosy risk genes. Our analyses showed that leprosy associated genes constituted a co-evolution network and might undergo positive selection driven by M. leprae. We suggested that leprosy may be a kind of autoimmune disease and the development of leprosy is a matter of defect or over-activation of body immunity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian uncertainty analyses of probabilistic risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.

1989-01-01

Applications of Bayesian principles to the uncertainty analyses are discussed in the paper. A short review of the most important uncertainties and their causes is provided. An application of the principle of maximum entropy to the determination of Bayesian prior distributions is described. An approach based on so called probabilistic structures is presented in order to develop a method of quantitative evaluation of modelling uncertainties. The method is applied to a small example case. Ideas for application areas for the proposed method are discussed

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

Science.gov (United States)

Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

2016-01-01

In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

Risk factors for age-related maculopathy in a 14-year follow-up study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buch, Helena; Vinding, Troels; la Cour, Morten

2005-01-01

To examine the association between potential risk factors and the 14-year incidence of age-related maculopathy (ARM).......To examine the association between potential risk factors and the 14-year incidence of age-related maculopathy (ARM)....

MicroRNA Related Polymorphisms and Breast Cancer Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki

2014-01-01

Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer....... We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41......,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated...

Mortality analyses in the updated French cohort of uranium miners (1946-2007)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rage, E.; Caer-Lorho, S.; Drubay, D.; Ancelet, S.; Laurier, D. [Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN), Fontenay-aux-Roses (France). PRP-HOM, SRBE, LEPID; Laroche, P. [AREVA, Paris La Defense (France). Direction Sante

2015-08-15

The objectives are to analyze mortality risks in the extended follow-up of the French uranium miners' cohort and to examine their potential relation to occupational exposure to ionizing radiation (IR). The total cohort includes 5,086 uranium miners employed in the CEA-COGEMA group and followed up from 1946 to 2007. Vital status, causes of death, and cumulative radon exposures were recorded. The post-55 subcohort includes 3,377 miners first employed after 1955, for whom long-lived radionuclides (LLR) and external gamma-ray exposure were also recorded. External mortality analyses were performed by computing standardized mortality ratios (SMR). Excess relative risks (ERRs) due to IR exposures were estimated from Poisson regression models. The miners included in the total cohort were followed up for 35.4 years and exposed to 36.6 working level months (WLM) on average. There was no evidence of a difference in overall mortality between miners and the general French male population. Miners had a statistically significant excess mortality rate from lung cancer (SMR = 1.34 [95 % CI 1.16-1.53]) and from kidney cancer (SMR = 1.60 [1.03-2.39]). Cumulative radon exposure was significantly associated with lung cancer risk (ERR/100 WLM = 0.71 [0.31-1.30]) and cerebrovascular risk (ERR/100 WLM = 0.41 [0.04-1.03]). In the post-55 subcohort, this excess mortality from lung cancer remained associated with exposure to radon, and also with exposure to LLR and external gamma rays. Conclusions The analyses in the extended follow-up strengthen the results previously observed among French uranium miners about their excess risk of mortality and its association with their occupational IR exposure.

Mortality analyses in the updated French cohort of uranium miners (1946-2007)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rage, E.; Caer-Lorho, S.; Drubay, D.; Ancelet, S.; Laurier, D.; Laroche, P.

2015-01-01

The objectives are to analyze mortality risks in the extended follow-up of the French uranium miners' cohort and to examine their potential relation to occupational exposure to ionizing radiation (IR). The total cohort includes 5,086 uranium miners employed in the CEA-COGEMA group and followed up from 1946 to 2007. Vital status, causes of death, and cumulative radon exposures were recorded. The post-55 subcohort includes 3,377 miners first employed after 1955, for whom long-lived radionuclides (LLR) and external gamma-ray exposure were also recorded. External mortality analyses were performed by computing standardized mortality ratios (SMR). Excess relative risks (ERRs) due to IR exposures were estimated from Poisson regression models. The miners included in the total cohort were followed up for 35.4 years and exposed to 36.6 working level months (WLM) on average. There was no evidence of a difference in overall mortality between miners and the general French male population. Miners had a statistically significant excess mortality rate from lung cancer (SMR = 1.34 [95 % CI 1.16-1.53]) and from kidney cancer (SMR = 1.60 [1.03-2.39]). Cumulative radon exposure was significantly associated with lung cancer risk (ERR/100 WLM = 0.71 [0.31-1.30]) and cerebrovascular risk (ERR/100 WLM = 0.41 [0.04-1.03]). In the post-55 subcohort, this excess mortality from lung cancer remained associated with exposure to radon, and also with exposure to LLR and external gamma rays. Conclusions The analyses in the extended follow-up strengthen the results previously observed among French uranium miners about their excess risk of mortality and its association with their occupational IR exposure.

Living alone, receiving help, helplessness, and inactivity are strongly related to risk of undernutrition among older home-dwelling people

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomstad ST

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Solveig T Tomstad1, Ulrika Söderhamn2, Geir Arild Espnes3, Olle Söderhamn21Department of Social Work and Health Science, Faculty of Sciences and Technology Management, NTNU, Trondheim, Norway and Centre for Caring Research – Southern Norway, Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Agder, Grimstad, Norway; 2Centre for Caring Research – Southern Norway, Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Agder, Grimstad, Norway; 3Research Centre for Health Promotion and Resources HiST-NTNU, Department of Social Work and Health Science, Faculty of Social Sciences and Technology Management, NTNU, Trondheim, NorwayBackground: Being at risk of undernutrition is a global problem among older people. Undernutrition can be considered inadequate nutritional status, characterized by insufficient food intake and weight loss. There is a lack of Norwegian studies focusing on being at risk of undernutrition and self-care ability, sense of coherence, and health-related issues among older home-dwelling people.Aim: To describe the prevalence of being at risk of undernutrition among a group of older home-dwelling individuals in Norway, and to relate the results to reported self-care ability, sense of coherence, perceived health and other health-related issues.Methods: A cross-sectional design was applied. A questionnaire with instruments for nutritional screening, self-care ability, and sense of coherence, and health-related questions was sent to a randomized sample of 450 persons (aged 65+ years in southern Norway. The study group included 158 (35.1% participants. Data were analysed using statistical methods.Results: The results showed that 19% of the participants were at medium risk of undernutrition and 1.3% at high risk. Due to the low response rate it can be expected that the nonparticipants can be at risk of undernutrition. The nutritional at-risk group had lower self-care ability and weaker sense of coherence. Living alone, receiving help

L’économie du travail commonsienne : l’analyse transactionnelle de la relation salariale

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Sylvie Morel

2010-12-01

Full Text Available La théorie institutionnaliste de John R. Commons est un cadre d’analyse économique permettant de conceptualiser de façon inédite l’économie du travail. Cet article présente une réflexion exploratoire sur les pistes de recherche qu’une telle conceptualisation pourrait suivre. Notre analyse se déroule en deux temps. Nous expliquons, tout d’abord, la prééminence que revêt, dans le cadre d’analyse commonsien, le concept d’institution en tant que théorie de l’action instituée. Nous identifions ensuite quelques éléments fondamentaux d’une « économie du travail commonsienne » qui forment une « analyse transactionnelle de la relation salariale ».J. R. Commons’s institutionalist theory provides an analytical economic framework as a new way of conceptualizing labor economics. This paper presents exploratory reflections on research avenues that such a conceptualization could follow. Our analysis proceeds in two stages. First, we explain the centrality of the concept of institution in the commonsian theoretical framework which amounts to a theory of instituted action. Second, we present the basic features of « commonsian labor economics » which offer a « transactional analysis of the employment relationship. »

Urbanization and traffic related exposures as risk factors for Schizophrenia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Mortensen, Preben Bo

2006-01-01

: The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road had a significant effect. The highest risk was found in children living 500-1000 metres from nearest major road (RR=1.30 (95% Confidence Interval: 1.17-1.44). However, when we accounted for the degree of urbanization, the geographical distance...... that traffic related exposures affect schizophrenia risk and that this potential effect is responsible for the urban-rural differences. The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road was used as a proxy variable for traffic related exposures. We used a large population-based sample......BACKGROUND: Urban birth or upbringing increase schizophrenia risk. Though unknown, the causes of these urban-rural differences have been hypothesized to include, e.g., infections, diet, toxic exposures, social class, or an artefact due to selective migration. METHODS: We investigated the hypothesis...

The interrelation between hypothyroidism and glaucoma: a critical review and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Thvilum, Marianne; Brandt, Frans; Brix, Thomas Heiberg; Hegedüs, Laszlo

2017-12-01

Data on the association between hypothyroidism and glaucoma are conflicting. We sought to shed light on this by conducting a critical review and meta-analyses. The meta-analyses were conducted in adherence with the widely accepted MOOSE guidelines. Using the Medical Subject Heading (MeSH) terms: hypothyroidism, myxoedema and glaucoma or intraocular pressure, case-control studies, cohort studies and cross-sectional studies were identified (PubMed) and reviewed. Using meta-analysis, the relative risk (RR) of coexistence of glaucoma and hypothyroidism was calculated. Based on the literature search, thirteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and could be categorized into two groups based on the exposure. The designs of the studies varied considerably, and there was heterogeneity related to lack of power, weak phenotype classifications and length of follow-up. Eight studies had glaucoma (5757 patients) as exposure and hypothyroidism as outcome. Among these, we found a non-significantly increased risk of hypothyroidism associated with glaucoma (RR 1.65; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.97-2.82). Based on five studies (168 006 patients) with hypothyroidism as exposure and glaucoma as outcome, we found the risk of glaucoma to be significantly increased (RR 1.33; 95% CI: 1.13-1.58). Based on these meta-analyses, there seems to be an association between hypothyroidism and glaucoma, which does not seem to be the case between glaucoma and hypothyroidism. However, larger scale studies with better phenotype classification, longer follow-up and taking comorbidity and other biases into consideration are needed to address a potential causal relationship. © 2017 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Anxious and depressive symptoms in the French Asbestos-Related Diseases Cohort: risk factors and self-perception of risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Mounchetrou Njoya, Ibrahim; Paris, Christophe; Dinet, Jerome; Luc, Amandine; Lighezzolo-Alnot, Joelle; Pairon, Jean-Claude; Thaon, Isabelle

2017-04-01

Asbestos is known to be an independent risk factor for lung and pleural cancers. However, to date, little attention has been paid to the psychological effects of asbestos exposure among exposed subjects. The objectives of this study were to estimate the prevalence of anxious and depressive symptoms among >2000 French participants of the Asbestos-Related Diseases Cohort (ARDCO), 6 years after their inclusion, to identify the risk factors associated with those anxious and depressive symptoms and to evaluate the impact of the asbestos-risk perception. The ARDCO was constituted in four regions of France between October 2003 and December 2005, by including former asbestos workers. Between 2011 and 2012, participants of the ARDCO program were invited to undergo another chest CT scan 6 years after the previous scan. Participants were asked to complete questionnaires including asbestos exposure assessment, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), asbestos-risk perception and self-perception of asbestos-related diseases. Among the 2225 participants, 2210 fully completed questionnaires were collected and analyzed. The prevalence of symptoms of probable anxiety and probable depression was 19.7% and 9.9%, respectively. The risk of anxious and depressive symptoms was independently associated with self-perception of the intensity of asbestos exposure, asbestos-risk perception and self-perception of asbestos-related diseases. The results obtained in this large study confirm that previously asbestos-exposed subjects are likely to develop anxious and depressive symptoms. Finally, implications related to the prevention of anxiety and depression among asbestos-exposed workers is discussed. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

The risk factors for impulsivity-related falls among hospitalized older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrari, Marisa; Harrison, Barbara; Lewis, Doresea

2012-01-01

Falls among older adults are a common, preventable problem associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Impulsivity is a known risk factor for older adult falls; however, there is a gap in evidence demonstrating the unique risk factors associated with impulsivity related falls (IRF). The research explored the association between seven fall risk factors and impulsivity related falls in hospitalized older adults in a community hospital. This retrospective descriptive study analyzed the association between seven fall risk factors and IRF in hospitalized older adults. The sample (N = 233) included patients age 65 years and older who had a documented in-patient fall in 2008. Of the falls, 29.7% were classified as IRF. The mean age of patients with IRF was 78 years, with the median day of fall being Day 5 of hospitalization/rehabilitation admission. Logistic regression demonstrated that only inattention and cognitive impairment were significant risk factors for IRF. The incidence of IRF was 29.7%. Our findings also indicate that cognitive impairment and inattention are strongest predictors for IRF among usual risk factors. Early identification of the unique risk factors associated with IRF could improve identification and reduce fall rates among hospitalized older adults. © 2012 Association of Rehabilitation Nurses.

Exercise interventions for the improvement of falls-related outcomes among older adults with diabetes mellitus: A systematic review and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Chapman, Anna; Meyer, Claudia; Renehan, Emma; Hill, Keith D; Browning, Colette J

2017-03-01

Falls as a complication of diabetes mellitus (DM) can have a major impact on the health of older adults. Previous reviews have demonstrated that certain exercise interventions are effective at reducing falls in older people; however, no studies have quantified the effectiveness of exercise interventions on falls-related outcomes among older adults with DM. A systematic search for all years to September 2015 identified available literature. Eligibility criteria included: appropriate exercise intervention/s; assessed falls-related outcomes; older adults with DM. Effect sizes were pooled using a random effects model. Positive effect sizes favoured the intervention. Ten RCTs were eligible for the meta-analyses. Exercise interventions were more effective than the control condition for static balance (0.53, 95% CI: 0.13 to 0.93), lower-limb strength (0.63, 95% CI: 0.09 to 1.18), and gait (0.59, 95% CI: 0.22 to 0.96). No RCTs assessed falls-risk; one RCT reported 12month falls-rate, with no differential treatment effect observed. Exercise interventions can improve certain falls-related outcomes among older adults with DM. Substantial heterogeneity and limited numbers of studies should be considered when interpreting results. Among older adults, where DM burden is increasing, exercise interventions may provide promising approaches to assist the improvement of falls-related outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Managing Entrepreneurial Risks under Conditions of Instability of Economic Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miroshnichenko Yurii V.

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The article analyses the state of an organisation under modern conditions of establishment of new competitive relations between subjects of economic activity and transition to the model of market economy, justifies urgency of studies devoted to methods of entrepreneurial risk management. The article analyses factors that influence the risk level and offers own definition of this category. The article sets the task of improvement of the systemised classification of entrepreneurial risk management methods. In the result of the conducted analysis, the authors offered an improved systemised classification of risk management methods and justifies efficiency of its use.

Risks of multiple sclerosis in relatives of patients in Flanders, Belgium

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Carton, H; Vlietinck, R; Debruyne, J; DeKeyser, J; DHooghe, MB; Loos, R; Medaer, R; Truyen, L; Yee, IML; Sadovnick, AD

Objectives - To calculate age adjusted risks for multiple sclerosis in relatives of Flemish patients with multiple sclerosis. Methods - Lifetime risks were calculated using the maximum likelihood approach. Results - Vital information was obtained on 674 probands with multiple sclerosis in Flanders

Risk of bleeding related to antithrombotic treatment in cardiovascular disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Rikke; Olesen, Jonas B; Charlot, Mette

2012-01-01

Antithrombotic therapy is a cornerstone of treatment in patients with cardiovascular disease with bleeding being the most feared complication. This review describes the risk of bleeding related to different combinations of antithrombotic drugs used for cardiovascular disease: acute coronary...... syndrome (ACS), atrial fibrillation (AF), cerebrovascular (CVD) and peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Different risk assessment schemes and bleeding definitions are compared. The HAS-BLED risk score is recommended in patients with AF and in ACS patients with AF. In patients with ACS with or without...

Host- and microbe-related risk factors for and pathophysiology of fatal Rickettsia conorii infection in Portuguese patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Sousa, Rita de; França, Ana; Dória Nòbrega, Sónia; Belo, Adelaide; Amaro, Mario; Abreu, Tiago; Poças, José; Proença, Paula; Vaz, José; Torgal, Jorge; Bacellar, Fátima; Ismail, Nahed; Walker, David H

2008-08-15

The pathophysiologic mechanisms that determine the severity of Mediterranean spotted fever (MSF) and the host-related and microbe-related risk factors for a fatal outcome are incompletely understood. This prospective study used univariate and multivariate analyses to determine the risk factors for a fatal outcome for 140 patients with Rickettsia conorii infection admitted to 13 Portuguese hospitals during 1994-2006 with documented identification of the rickettsial strain causing their infection. A total of 71 patients (51%) were infected with the Malish strain of Rickettsia conorii, and 69 (49%) were infected with the Israeli spotted fever (ISF) strain. Patients were admitted to the intensive care unit (40 [29%]), hospitalized as routine inpatients (95[67%]), or managed as outpatients (5[4%]). Death occurred in 29 adults (21%). A fatal outcome was significantly more likely for patients infected with the ISF strain, and alcoholism was a risk factor. The pathophysiology of a fatal outcome involved significantly greater incidence of petechial rash, gastrointestinal symptoms, obtundation and/or confusion, dehydration, tachypnea, hepatomegaly, leukocytosis, coagulopathy, azotemia, hyperbilirubinemia, and elevated levels of hepatic enzymes and creatine kinase. Some, but not all, of these findings were observed more often in ISF strain-infected patients. Although fatalities and similar clinical manifestations occurred among both groups of patients, the ISF strain was more virulent than the Malish strain. Multivariate analysis revealed that acute renal failure and hyperbilirubinemia were most strongly associated with a fatal outcome.

Elite athletes experiences with risk related to cardiac screening

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Jonas Schmidt; Thing, Lone Friis

Society of Cardiology as well as major sports federations such as the International Olympic Committee, however, these recommendations seem to be based on an inadequate empirical foundation, just as the costs of performing cardiac screening on a larger scale seem out of proportion. Additionally, the field...... perspective on risk (Foucault 1988). For most elite athletes participation in cardiac screening is done out of a wish to obtain an acquittal from risks. Symptomatic of the risk society cardiac screening can from an athlete perspective at the same time be seen as an attempt to gain control over......Elite Athletes experiences with risks related to Cardiac Screening Jonas Schmidt Christensen1, Lone Friis Thing1 1University of Copenhagen - Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports (NEXS), Cardiac screening of elite athletes are recommended by both the American Heart Association & the European...