WorldWideScience

Sample records for relative risk analyses

  1. [The genotype-based haplotype relative risk and transmission disequilibrium test analyses of familial febrile convulsions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Y; Wu, X; Guo, Z; Zhang, J; Pan, H; Li, M; Bao, X; Peng, J; Zou, L; Lin, Q

    1999-10-01

    To confirm the linkage of familial febrile convulsions to the short arm of chromosome 6(6p) or the long arm of chromosome 8(8q). The authors finished genotyping of Pst I locus on the coding region of heat shock protein (HSP) 70, 5'untranslated region of HSP70-1, 3' untranslated region of HSP70-2, D8S84 and D8S85. The data were processed by the genotype-based haplotype relative risk(GHRR) and transmission disequilibrium test(TDT) methods in PPAP. Some signs of association and disequilibrium between D8S85 and FC were shown by GHRR and TDT. A suspect linkage of familial febrile convulsions to the long arm of chromosome 8 has been proposed.

  2. LWR safety studies. Analyses and further assessments relating to the German Risk Assessment Study on Nuclear Power Plants. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    This documentation of the activities of the Oeko-Institut is intended to show errors made and limits encountered in the experimental approaches and in results obtained by the work performed under phase A of the German Risk Assessment Study on Nuclear Power Plants (DRS). Concern is expressed and explained relating to the risk definition used in the Study, and the results of other studies relied on; specific problems of methodology are discussed with regard to the value of fault-tree/accident analyses for describing the course of safety-related events, and to the evaluations presented in the DRS. The Markov model is explained as an approach offering alternative solutions. The identification and quantification of common-mode failures is discussed. Origin, quality and methods of assessing the reliability characteristics used in the DRS as well as the statistical models for describing failure scenarios of reactor components and systems are critically reviewed. (RF) [de

  3. Analysing international relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corry, Olaf

    2014-01-01

    matters by depicting reality in new ways. I then show how different theories rely on different ‘pictures’ of what makes up the international system. Section 2 shows how theories differ in terms of their scope, their aims and their purposes. Section 3 explores some of the choices to be made when using...... theories to ‘explain’ international relations and distinguishes between different kinds of explanation. In Section 4 I look at how different theories have been grouped – first according to their underlying views of what is valid knowledge, and second in terms of different accounts of how history works.......Presented with conflicting evidence and interpretations, how do we ever come to valid conclusions about complex questions of continuity and change in global politics? In any analytical task you need to consider a number of things and this final chapter will take you through some of them including...

  4. Epidemiologic Analyses of Risk Factors for Bone Loss and Recovery Related to Long-Duration Space Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibonga, Jean; Amin, Shreyasee

    2010-01-01

    AIM 1: To investigate the risk of microgravity exposure on long-term changes in bone health and fracture risk. compare data from crew members ("observed") with what would be "expected" from Rochester Bone Health Study. AIM 2: To provide a summary of current evidence available on potential risk factors for bone loss, recovery & fracture following long-duration space flight. integrative review of all data pre, in-, and post-flight across disciplines (cardiovascular, nutrition, muscle, etc.) and their relation to bone loss and recovery

  5. LWR safety studies. Analyses and further assessments relating to the German Risk Assessment Study on Nuclear Power Plants. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    Critical review of the analyses of the German Risk Assessment Study on Nuclear Power Plants (DRS) concerning the reliability of the containment under accident conditions and the conditions of fission product release (transport and distribution in the environment). Main point of interest in this context is an explosion in the steam section and its impact on the containment. Critical comments are given on the models used in the DRS for determining the accident consequences. The analyses made deal with the mathematical models and database for propagation calculations, the methods of dose computation and assessment of health hazards, and the modelling of protective and safety measures. Social impacts of reactor accidents are also considered. (RF) [de

  6. Building-related symptoms among U.S. office workers and risks factors for moisture and contamination: Preliminary analyses of U.S. EPA BASE Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendell, Mark J.; Cozen, Myrna

    2002-09-01

    The authors assessed relationships between health symptoms in office workers and risk factors related to moisture and contamination, using data collected from a representative sample of U.S. office buildings in the U.S. EPA BASE study. Methods: Analyses assessed associations between three types of weekly, workrelated symptoms-lower respiratory, mucous membrane, and neurologic-and risk factors for moisture or contamination in these office buildings. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate the strength of associations for these risk factors as odds ratios (ORs) adjusted for personal-level potential confounding variables related to demographics, health, job, and workspace. A number of risk factors were associated (e.g., 95% confidence limits excluded 1.0) significantly with small to moderate increases in one or more symptom outcomes. Significantly elevated ORs for mucous membrane symptoms were associated with the following risk factors: presence of humidification system in good condition versus none (OR = 1.4); air handler inspection annually versus daily (OR = 1.6); current water damage in the building (OR = 1.2); and less than daily vacuuming in study space (OR = 1.2). Significantly elevated ORs for lower respiratory symptoms were associated with: air handler inspection annually versus daily (OR = 2.0); air handler inspection less than daily but at least semi-annually (OR=1.6); less than daily cleaning of offices (1.7); and less than daily vacuuming of the study space (OR = 1.4). Only two statistically significant risk factors for neurologic symptoms were identified: presence of any humidification system versus none (OR = 1.3); and less than daily vacuuming of the study space (OR = 1.3). Dirty cooling coils, dirty or poorly draining drain pans, and standing water near outdoor air intakes, evaluated by inspection, were not identified as risk factors in these analyses, despite predictions based on previous findings elsewhere, except that very

  7. Impacts of extreme heat on emergency medical service calls in King County, Washington, 2007-2012: relative risk and time series analyses of basic and advanced life support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calkins, Miriam M; Isaksen, Tania Busch; Stubbs, Benjamin A; Yost, Michael G; Fenske, Richard A

    2016-01-28

    Exposure to excessive heat kills more people than any other weather-related phenomenon, aggravates chronic diseases, and causes direct heat illness. Strong associations between extreme heat and health have been identified through increased mortality and hospitalizations and there is growing evidence demonstrating increased emergency department visits and demand for emergency medical services (EMS). The purpose of this study is to build on an existing regional assessment of mortality and hospitalizations by analyzing EMS demand associated with extreme heat, using calls as a health metric, in King County, Washington (WA), for a 6-year period. Relative-risk and time series analyses were used to characterize the association between heat and EMS calls for May 1 through September 30 of each year for 2007-2012. Two EMS categories, basic life support (BLS) and advanced life support (ALS), were analyzed for the effects of heat on health outcomes and transportation volume, stratified by age. Extreme heat was model-derived as the 95th (29.7 °C) and 99th (36.7 °C) percentile of average county-wide maximum daily humidex for BLS and ALS calls respectively. Relative-risk analyses revealed an 8 % (95 % CI: 6-9 %) increase in BLS calls, and a 14 % (95 % CI: 9-20 %) increase in ALS calls, on a heat day (29.7 and 36.7 °C humidex, respectively) versus a non-heat day for all ages, all causes. Time series analyses found a 6.6 % increase in BLS calls, and a 3.8 % increase in ALS calls, per unit-humidex increase above the optimum threshold, 40.7 and 39.7 °C humidex respectively. Increases in "no" and "any" transportation were found in both relative risk and time series analyses. Analysis by age category identified significant results for all age groups, with the 15-44 and 45-64 year old age groups showing some of the highest and most frequent increases across health conditions. Multiple specific health conditions were associated with increased risk of an EMS call including abdominal

  8. Risk analyses of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jehee, J.N.T.; Seebregts, A.J.

    1991-02-01

    Probabilistic risk analyses of nuclear power plants are carried out by systematically analyzing the possible consequences of a broad spectrum of causes of accidents. The risk can be expressed in the probabilities for melt down, radioactive releases, or harmful effects for the environment. Following risk policies for chemical installations as expressed in the mandatory nature of External Safety Reports (EVRs) or, e.g., the publication ''How to deal with risks'', probabilistic risk analyses are required for nuclear power plants

  9. Decreasing Relative Risk Premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    relative risk premium in the small implies decreasing relative risk premium in the large, and decreasing relative risk premium everywhere implies risk aversion. We finally show that preferences with decreasing relative risk premium may be equivalently expressed in terms of certain preferences on risky......We consider the risk premium demanded by a decision maker with wealth x in order to be indifferent between obtaining a new level of wealth y1 with certainty, or to participate in a lottery which either results in unchanged present wealth or a level of wealth y2 > y1. We define the relative risk...... premium as the quotient between the risk premium and the increase in wealth y1–x which the decision maker puts on the line by choosing the lottery in place of receiving y1 with certainty. We study preferences such that the relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine...

  10. Seismic risk analyses in the German Risk Study, phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosser, D.; Liemersdorf, H.

    1991-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants, Phase B. First simplified analyses in Phase A of the study allowed only a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in Phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in Phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behaviour and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications and model uncertainties. Some results for the PWR reference plant are given. (orig.)

  11. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses in aging risk-based prioritizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, M.; Uryas'ev, S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1993-01-01

    Aging risk evaluations of nuclear power plants using Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs) involve assessments of the impact of aging structures, systems, and components (SSCs) on plant core damage frequency (CDF). These assessments can be used to prioritize the contributors to aging risk reflecting the relative risk potential of the SSCs. Aging prioritizations are important for identifying the SSCs contributing most to plant risk and can provide a systematic basis on which aging risk control and management strategies for a plant can be developed. However, these prioritizations are subject to variabilities arising from uncertainties in data, and/or from various modeling assumptions. The objective of this paper is to present an evaluation of the sensitivity of aging prioritizations of active components to uncertainties in aging risk quantifications. Approaches for robust prioritization of SSCs also are presented which are less susceptible to the uncertainties

  12. Decreasing relative risk premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    2007-01-01

    such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...

  13. Sensitivity in risk analyses with uncertain numbers.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tucker, W. Troy; Ferson, Scott

    2006-06-01

    Sensitivity analysis is a study of how changes in the inputs to a model influence the results of the model. Many techniques have recently been proposed for use when the model is probabilistic. This report considers the related problem of sensitivity analysis when the model includes uncertain numbers that can involve both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and the method of calculation is Dempster-Shafer evidence theory or probability bounds analysis. Some traditional methods for sensitivity analysis generalize directly for use with uncertain numbers, but, in some respects, sensitivity analysis for these analyses differs from traditional deterministic or probabilistic sensitivity analyses. A case study of a dike reliability assessment illustrates several methods of sensitivity analysis, including traditional probabilistic assessment, local derivatives, and a ''pinching'' strategy that hypothetically reduces the epistemic uncertainty or aleatory uncertainty, or both, in an input variable to estimate the reduction of uncertainty in the outputs. The prospects for applying the methods to black box models are also considered.

  14. RISK ANALYSES USED IN ACCEPTANCE TESTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oxana STOROJ

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This article is talking about risk based testing approach in user acceptance testing UAT (User Acceptance Testing. There are presented definitions of risk and risk based testing. In addition, we are talking about risks that can appear during UAT and we are describing the process of testing based on risks. We propose some techniques and methods of identifying risks such as using Brainstorming, Delphi method,probability analysis method and others. Also, risk traceability matrix is presented as a method of prioritizing risks.

  15. Fuel related risks; Braenslerisker

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Englund, Jessica; Sernhed, Kerstin; Nystroem, Olle; Graveus, Frank (Grontmij AB, (Sweden))

    2012-02-15

    The project, within which this work report was prepared, aimed to complement the Vaermeforsk publication 'Handbook of fuels' on fuel related risks and measures to reduce the risks. The fuels examined in this project where the fuels included in the first version of the handbook from 2005 plus four additional fuels that will be included in the second and next edition of the handbook. Following fuels were included: woodfuels (sawdust, wood chips, powder, briquettes), slash, recycled wood, salix, bark, hardwood, stumps, straw, reed canary grass, hemp, cereal, cereal waste, olive waste, cocoa beans, citrus waste, shea, sludge, forest industrial sludge, manure, Paper Wood Plastic, tyre, leather waste, cardboard rejects, meat and bone meal, liquid animal and vegetable wastes, tall oil pitch, peat, residues from food industry, biomal (including slaughterhouse waste) and lignin. The report includes two main chapters; a general risk chapter and a chapter of fuel specific risks. The first one deals with the general concept of risk, it highlights laws and rules relevant for risk management and it discuss general risks that are related to the different steps of fuel handling, i.e. unloading, storing, processing the fuel, transportation within the facility, combustion and handling of ashes. The information that was used to produce this chapter was gathered through a literature review, site visits, and the project group's experience from risk management. The other main chapter deals with fuel-specific risks and the measures to reduce the risks for the steps of unloading, storing, processing the fuel, internal transportation, combustion and handling of the ashes. Risks and measures were considered for all the biofuels included in the second version in the handbook of fuels. Information about the risks and risk management was gathered through interviews with people working with different kinds of fuels in electricity and heat plants in Sweden. The information from

  16. Risk assessment of PCDD/Fs levels in human tissues related to major food items based on chemical analyses and micro-EROD assay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsang, H L; Wu, S C; Wong, C K C; Leung, C K M; Tao, S; Wong, M H

    2009-10-01

    Nine groups of food items (freshwater fish, marine fish, pork, chicken, chicken eggs, leafy, non-leafy vegetables, rice and flour) and three types of human samples (human milk, maternal serum and cord serum) were collected for the analysis of PCDD/Fs. Results of chemical analysis revealed PCDD/Fs concentrations (pg g(-1) fat) in the following ascending order: pork (0.289 pg g(-1) fat), grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idellus) (freshwater fish) (0.407), golden thread (Nemipterus virgatus) (marine fish) (0.511), chicken (0.529), mandarin fish (Siniperca kneri) (marine fish) (0.535), chicken egg (0.552), and snubnose pompano (Trachinotus blochii) (marine fish) (1.219). The results of micro-EROD assay showed relatively higher PCDD/Fs levels in fish (2.65 pg g(-1) fat) when compared with pork (0.47), eggs (0.33), chicken (0.13), flour (0.07), vegetables (0.05 pg g(-1) wet wt) and rice (0.05). The estimated average daily intake of PCDD/Fs of 3.51 pg EROD-TEQ/kg bw/day was within the range of WHO Tolerable Daily Intake (1-4 pg WHO-TEQ/kg bw/day) and was higher than the Provisional Tolerable Daily Intake (PMTL) (70 pg for dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs) recommended by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA) [Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA), Summary and conclusions of the fifty-seventh meeting, JECFA, 2001.]. Nevertheless, the current findings were significantly lower than the TDI (14 pg WHO-TEQ/kg/bw/day) recommended by the Scientific Committee on Food of the Europe Commission [European Scientific Committee on Food (EU SCF), Opinions on the SCF on the risk assessment of dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs in food, 2000.]. However, it should be noted that micro-EROD assay overestimates the PCDD/Fs levels by 2 to 7 folds which may also amplify the PCDD/Fs levels accordingly. Although the levels of PCDD/Fs obtained from micro-EROD assay were much higher than those obtained by chemical analysis by 2 to 7 folds, it provides a cost-effective and

  17. International comparative analyses of healthcare risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Niuyun; Wang, Li; Zhou, Jun; Yuan, Qiang; Zhang, Zongjiu; Li, Youping; Liang, Minghui; Cheng, Lan; Gao, Guangming; Cui, Xiaohui

    2011-02-01

    Interpretation of the growing body of global literature on health care risk is compromised by a lack of common understanding and language. This series of articles aims to comprehensively compare laws and regulations, institutional management, and administration of incidence reporting systems on medical risk management in the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Australia, and Taiwan, so as to provide evidence and recommendations for health care risk management policy in China. We searched the official websites of the healthcare risk management agencies of the four countries and one district for laws, regulatory documents, research reports, reviews and evaluation forms concerned with healthcare risk management and assessment. Descriptive comparative analysis was performed on relevant documents. A total of 146 documents were included in this study, including 2 laws (1.4%), 17 policy documents (11.6%), 41 guidance documents (28.1%), 37 reviews (25.3%), and 49 documents giving general information (33.6%). The United States government implemented one law and one rule of patient safety management, while the United Kingdom and Australia each issued professional guidances on patient safety improvement. The four countries implemented patient safety management policy on four different levels: national, state/province, hospital, and non-governmental organization. The four countries and one district adopted four levels of patient safety management, and the administration modes can be divided into an "NGO-led mode" represented by the United States and Canada and a "government-led mode" represented by the United Kingdom, Australia, and Taiwan. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd and Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University.

  18. Bayesian uncertainty analyses of probabilistic risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    1989-01-01

    Applications of Bayesian principles to the uncertainty analyses are discussed in the paper. A short review of the most important uncertainties and their causes is provided. An application of the principle of maximum entropy to the determination of Bayesian prior distributions is described. An approach based on so called probabilistic structures is presented in order to develop a method of quantitative evaluation of modelling uncertainties. The method is applied to a small example case. Ideas for application areas for the proposed method are discussed

  19. Regionalisation of asset values for risk analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Thieken

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In risk analysis there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modelled on an explicit raster level and exposure data that are often only available for aggregated units, e.g. communities. Dasymetric mapping techniques that use ancillary information to disaggregate data within a spatial unit help to bridge this gap. This paper presents dasymetric maps showing the population density and a unit value of residential assets for whole Germany. A dasymetric mapping approach, which uses land cover data (CORINE Land Cover as ancillary variable, was adapted and applied to regionalize aggregated census data that are provided for all communities in Germany. The results were validated by two approaches. First, it was ascertained whether population data disaggregated at the community level can be used to estimate population in postcodes. Secondly, disaggregated population and asset data were used for a loss evaluation of two flood events that occurred in 1999 and 2002, respectively. It must be concluded that the algorithm tends to underestimate the population in urban areas and to overestimate population in other land cover classes. Nevertheless, flood loss evaluations demonstrate that the approach is capable of providing realistic estimates of the number of exposed people and assets. Thus, the maps are sufficient for applications in large-scale risk assessments such as the estimation of population and assets exposed to natural and man-made hazards.

  20. Ranking related entities: components and analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bron, M.; Balog, K.; de Rijke, M.

    2010-01-01

    Related entity finding is the task of returning a ranked list of homepages of relevant entities of a specified type that need to engage in a given relationship with a given source entity. We propose a framework for addressing this task and perform a detailed analysis of four core components;

  1. Integrating Risk Analyses and Tools at the DOE Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LOBER, R.W.

    2002-01-01

    determine if there is a need to implement interim measures or take corrective action before closing the tank farms. This list is not meant to be all inclusive of risk analysis projects and tools at the Hanford Site. It is intended to highlight a small set of projects and illustrate the process of integrating risk analysis information for a complex set of interrelated interim decisions and issues for various types of waste sites. New and emerging information relative to long-term human health risks during and following tank and non-tank site closure show the importance and usefulness of an integrated risk framework for decision-making. This paper will describe the approach for using risk assessment to support waste site and tank closure decisions, the tools being developed, and how integration of these risk assessments and analyses are being performed to address near-term and long-term decisions

  2. New ventures require accurate risk analyses and adjustments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastaugh, S R

    2000-01-01

    For new business ventures to succeed, healthcare executives need to conduct robust risk analyses and develop new approaches to balance risk and return. Risk analysis involves examination of objective risks and harder-to-quantify subjective risks. Mathematical principles applied to investment portfolios also can be applied to a portfolio of departments or strategic business units within an organization. The ideal business investment would have a high expected return and a low standard deviation. Nonetheless, both conservative and speculative strategies should be considered in determining an organization's optimal service line and helping the organization manage risk.

  3. Emerging Risks in the Dutch Food Chain report on project 2: Application of indicator analyses on several critical points in the salmon production chain and identification of related data sources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schelvis-Smit, A.A.M.; Poelman, M.; Schneider, O.

    2008-01-01

    An indicator analysis was performed on the fish production chain by assessing the indicators which may be of importance for the detection of emerging risks. The indicators were embedded in a “risk pathway”, in which the relations between different indicators could be illustrated. The risk pathways

  4. Risk and reliability analyses (LURI) and expert judgement techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyy, P.; Pulkkinen, U.

    1998-01-01

    Probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) is currently used as a regulatory licensing tool in risk informed and plant performance based regulation. More often also utility safety improvements are based on PSA calculations as one criterion. PSA attempts to comprehensively identify all important risk contributors, compare them with each other, assess the safety level and suggest improvements based on its findings. The strength of PSA is that it is capable to provide decision makers with numerical estimates of risks. This makes decision making easier than the comparison of purely qualitative results. PSA is the only comprehensive tool that compactly attempts to include all the important risk contributors in its scope. Despite the demonstrated strengths of PSA, there are some features that have reduced its uses. For example, the PSA scope has been limited to the power operation and process internal events (transients and LOCAs). Only lately, areas such as shutdown, external events and severe accidents have been included in PSA models in many countries. Problems related to modelling are, e.g., that rather static fault and event tree models are commonly used in PSA to model dynamic event sequences. Even if a valid model may be generated, there may not be any other data sources to be used than expert judgement. Furthermore, there are a variety of different techniques for human reliability assessment (HRA) giving varying results. In the project Reliability and Risk Analyses (LURI) these limitations and shortcomings have been studied. In the decision making area, case studies on the application of decision analysis and a doctoral thesis have been published. Further, practical aid has been given to utilities and regulatory decision making. Model uncertainty effect on PSA results has been demonstrated by two case studies. Human reliability has been studied both in the integrated safety analysis study and in the study of maintenance originated NPP component faults based on the

  5. The Network of Counterparty Risk: Analysing Correlations in OTC Derivatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanumyan, Vahan; Garas, Antonios; Schweitzer, Frank

    2015-01-01

    Counterparty risk denotes the risk that a party defaults in a bilateral contract. This risk not only depends on the two parties involved, but also on the risk from various other contracts each of these parties holds. In rather informal markets, such as the OTC (over-the-counter) derivative market, institutions only report their aggregated quarterly risk exposure, but no details about their counterparties. Hence, little is known about the diversification of counterparty risk. In this paper, we reconstruct the weighted and time-dependent network of counterparty risk in the OTC derivatives market of the United States between 1998 and 2012. To proxy unknown bilateral exposures, we first study the co-occurrence patterns of institutions based on their quarterly activity and ranking in the official report. The network obtained this way is further analysed by a weighted k-core decomposition, to reveal a core-periphery structure. This allows us to compare the activity-based ranking with a topology-based ranking, to identify the most important institutions and their mutual dependencies. We also analyse correlations in these activities, to show strong similarities in the behavior of the core institutions. Our analysis clearly demonstrates the clustering of counterparty risk in a small set of about a dozen US banks. This not only increases the default risk of the central institutions, but also the default risk of peripheral institutions which have contracts with the central ones. Hence, all institutions indirectly have to bear (part of) the counterparty risk of all others, which needs to be better reflected in the price of OTC derivatives.

  6. The relativity of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, R.H.

    1987-01-01

    The transport of radioactive material has long been a subject of emotive controversy. For a realistic assessment of the risks involved, however, they must be seen in the context of the transport of any hazardous cargoes, especially those which are energy-producing products

  7. Emerging Risks in the Dutch Food Chain report on project 2: Application of indicator analyses on several critical points in the salmon production chain and identification of related data sources

    OpenAIRE

    Schelvis-Smit, A.A.M.; Poelman, M.; Schneider, O.

    2008-01-01

    An indicator analysis was performed on the fish production chain by assessing the indicators which may be of importance for the detection of emerging risks. The indicators were embedded in a “risk pathway”, in which the relations between different indicators could be illustrated. The risk pathways illustrate the main characteristics of the salmon production chain. However further research is required in order to develop further interaction with other sectors, and production chains to bring em...

  8. Systems reliability analyses and risk analyses for the licencing procedure under atomic law

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berning, A.; Spindler, H.

    1983-01-01

    For the licencing procedure under atomic law in accordance with Article 7 AtG, the nuclear power plant as a whole needs to be assessed, plus the reliability of systems and plant components that are essential to safety are to be determined with probabilistic methods. This requirement is the consequence of safety criteria for nuclear power plants issued by the Home Department (BMI). Systems reliability studies and risk analyses used in licencing procedures under atomic law are identified. The stress is on licencing decisions, mainly for PWR-type reactors. Reactor Safety Commission (RSK) guidelines, examples of reasoning in legal proceedings and arguments put forth by objectors are also dealt with. Correlations are shown between reliability analyses made by experts and licencing decisions by means of examples. (orig./HP) [de

  9. Prenominal and postnominal reduced relative clauses: arguments against unitary analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sleeman, P.

    2007-01-01

    These last years, several analyses have been proposed in which prenominal and postnominal reduced relatives are merged in the same position. Kayne (1994) claims that both types of reduced relative clauses are the complement of the determiner. More recently, Cinque (2005) has proposed that both types

  10. Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Andres Calvache

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

  11. Prenominal and postnominal reduced relative clauses: arguments against unitary analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Sleeman

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available These last years, several analyses have been proposed in which prenominal and postnominal reduced relatives are merged in the same position. Kayne (1994 claims that both types of reduced relative clauses are the complement of the determiner. More recently, Cinque (2005 has proposed that both types are merged in the functional projections of the noun, at the left edge of the modifier system. In this paper, I argue against a unitary analysis of prenominal and postnominal participial reduced relatives.

  12. Accidental Risk Analyses of the Istanbul and Canakkale Straits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Essiz, Betül; Dagkiran, Berat

    2017-12-01

    Maritime transportation plays an important role in the world. Commercial transport and navy are international maritime activities in different countries. Thanks to the role of straits and channels, these activities can be easier and faster, Turkey has a crucial importance on it because of importance of geographical location. The Turkish Straits are a series of internationally significant waterways connecting Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea. They consist of the Canakkale Strait, the Sea of Marmara, and the Istanbul Strait, all part of the sovereign sea territory of Turkey and subject to the regime of internal waters. They are conventionally considered by the boundary between the continents of Europe and Asia. Because of this geographical importance, all kinds of huge sized vessel activities and high volume cargo transportation always keep going in this waterway. On the other hand, the more maritime activities grow the more accident risks increase. So, can be examined the accident risks on Istanbul and Canakkale Straits and can be assessed risk analysis for them. In the context of the study, one can see general information of the Turkish Straits and the regulatory regime. In addition, tables are applied for vessel movement in the Turkish Straits by years in detail in order to sense variation of the vessel. Risk analyses may also be described in sections with many variables. This paper outlines ship accidents and the risk analysis of ship accidents is applied and resulted for the Turkish Straits. The last chapter concerns the Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) System in the Turkish Straits.

  13. Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

    1990-01-01

    When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate

  14. Quality and completeness of risk analyses. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1992-06-01

    The program described was started in 1974, at Risoe National Laboratory. The motivation was criticism then being directed at the Reactor Safety Study WASH 1400, and the view that if risk analysis were to have a future as a scientific study, then its procedures would need to be verified. The material described is a record of a prolonged set of experiments and experiences and this second edition of the report includes an update of the research to cover a study of 35 risk analyses reviewed and checked between 1988 and 1992. A survey is presented of the ways in which incompleteness, lacunae, and oversights arise in risk analysis. Areas were detailed knowledge of disturbance causes and consequences need to be known are alarm priority setting, suppression of nuisance alarms and status annunciation signals, advanced shut down system design and runback systems, alarm and disturbance analysis, automatic plant supervision, disturbance diagnosis and testing support, and monitoring of safe operation margins. Despite improvements in risk analysis technique, in safety management, and in safety design, there will always be problems of ignorance, of material properties, of chemical reactions, of behavioural patterns and safety decision making, which leave plants vulnerable and hazardous. (AB) (24 refs.)

  15. Not all risks are created equal: A twin study and meta-analyses of risk taking across seven domains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X T Xiao-Tian; Zheng, Rui; Xuan, Yan-Hua; Chen, Jie; Li, Shu

    2016-11-01

    Humans routinely deal with both traditional and novel risks. Different kinds of risks have been a driving force for both evolutionary adaptations and personal development. This study explored the genetic and environmental influences on human risk taking in different task domains. Our approach was threefold. First, we integrated several scales of domain-specific risk-taking propensity and developed a synthetic scale, including both evolutionarily typical and modern risks in the following 7 domains: cooperation/competition, safety, reproduction, natural/physical risk, moral risk, financial risk, and gambling. Second, we conducted a twin study using the scale to estimate the contributions of genes and environment to risk taking in each of these 7 domains. Third, we conducted a series of meta-analyses of extant twin studies across the 7 risk domains. The results showed that individual differences in risk-taking propensity and its consistency across domains were mainly regulated by additive genetic influences and individually unique environmental experiences. The heritability estimates from the meta-analyses ranged from 29% in financial risk taking to 55% in safety. Supporting the notion of risk-domain specificity, both the behavioral and genetic correlations among the 7 domains were generally low. Among the relatively few correlations between pairs of risk domains, our analysis revealed a common genetic factor that regulates moral, financial, and natural/physical risk taking. This is the first effort to separate genetic and environmental influences on risk taking across multiple domains in a single study and integrate the findings of extant twin studies via a series of meta-analyses conducted in different task domains. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Employment relations, flexibility and risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Carsten Strøby

    Employment relations literature often distinguishes between social democratic/corporatist models of employment relations and liberal models of employment relations as they are seen as opposite or at least different ways of organizing labor markets. They are often characterized as having very...... different risk profiles in terms of relationships between employees, employers, and the state. Low levels of labor market regulation very often characterize the liberal models of employment relations as we know them from, for instance, the USA and the UK. This means that employment conditions are very often...... insecure and that the burden of unemployment risk mostly lies with the employees rather than the employer. Corporatist – or social democratic – employment relations models are, in contrast to the liberal models, often characterized by stricter regulation of the labor market and by high standards...

  17. Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

    2010-11-01

    Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

  18. Risk analysis related to dangerous materials transport and storage in urban areas; L'integration du risque lie au transport et au stockage des produits chimiques dans la planification urbaine: l'apport des outils d'analyse decisionnelle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lombard, J; Hubert, P; Pages, P

    1989-12-01

    Risk management in an urban areas not always an easy task and the selection of appropriate prevention measure is often difficult. Consequences of an accident can be multiple (mortality, destruction, pollution, interruption of supplies, economic losses, traffic difficulties), and preventive measures are difficult to compare. The objective of this report is to present different methods applicable for decision making emphasising the criteria for their intercomparison and their limitations. In any case a more sophisticated analysis is needed for risk management in urban areas. Principals of methods needed for decision making are presented. These methods are based on a single criteria (regular constraint), on a few criteria that can be measured (cost-benefit), or a number of criteria at choice. These rather general methods should be adaptable to be applied for specific domain. For risk management the following adaptation are presented: identifying the limit of maximum individual risk (generalisation of regular constraint); adoption of different values of human life as a function of nature of consequences (generalisation of cost-benefit method), application of risk avoidance factors. These different developments predict versions of tools for decision making which can be applicable to risk management in urban areas. [French] La gestion des risques en milieu urbain n'est pas toujours une tache aisee et la selection du moyen de prevention approprie sera souvent difficile. En effet, les consequences d'un accident peuvent etre multiples (mortalite, morbidite, destruction, pollution, interruption de reseaux, pertes economiques, difficultes de circulation...) et les moyens de prevention envisageables pour limiter l'occurrence d'un accident et/ou les consequences associees seront alors difficiles a comparer. Le recours a une methode d'evaluation permettant de quantifier puis de comparer les merites respectifs de ces differents moyens devient aujourd'hui necessaire afin de

  19. Analysing public relations education through international standards: The Portuguese case

    OpenAIRE

    Gonçalves, Gisela Marques Pereira; Spínola, Susana de Carvalho; Padamo, Celma

    2013-01-01

    By using international reports on PR education as a benchmark we analyse the status of PR higher education in Portugal. Despite differences among the study programs, the findings reveal that the standard five courses recommendation by the Commission on Public Relations Education (CPRE) are a part of Portuguese undergraduate curriculum. This includes 12 of the 14 content field guidelines needed to achieve the ideal master's program. Data shows, however, the difficulty of positioning public rel...

  20. Methodical treatment of dependent failures in risk analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennings, W.; Mertens, J.

    1987-06-01

    In this report the state-of-the-art regarding dependent failures is compiled and commented on. Among others the following recommendations are infered: The term 'common mode failures' should be restricted to failures of redundant, similar components; the generic term is 'dependent failures' with the subsets 'causal failures' and 'common cause failures'. In risk studies, dependent failures should be covered as far as possible by 'explicit methods'. Nevertheless an uncovered rest remains, which should be accounted for by sensitivity analyses using 'implicit methods'. For this the homogeneous Marshall-Olkin model is recommended. Because the available reports on operating experiences only record 'common mode failures' systematically, it is recommended to additionally apply other methods, e.g. carry out a 'precursor study'. (orig.) [de

  1. Non-Statistical Methods of Analysing of Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pisula Tomasz

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on assessing the effectiveness of a non-statistical approach to bankruptcy modelling in enterprises operating in the logistics sector. In order to describe the issue more comprehensively, the aforementioned prediction of the possible negative results of business operations was carried out for companies functioning in the Polish region of Podkarpacie, and in Slovakia. The bankruptcy predictors selected for the assessment of companies operating in the logistics sector included 28 financial indicators characterizing these enterprises in terms of their financial standing and management effectiveness. The purpose of the study was to identify factors (models describing the bankruptcy risk in enterprises in the context of their forecasting effectiveness in a one-year and two-year time horizon. In order to assess their practical applicability the models were carefully analysed and validated. The usefulness of the models was assessed in terms of their classification properties, and the capacity to accurately identify enterprises at risk of bankruptcy and healthy companies as well as proper calibration of the models to the data from training sample sets.

  2. Parametric neutronic analyses related to burnup credit cask design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parks, C.V.

    1989-01-01

    The consideration of spent fuel histories (burnup credit) in the design of spent fuel shipping casks will result in cost savings and public risk benefits in the overall fuel transportation system. The purpose of this paper is to describe the depletion and criticality analyses performed in conjunction with and supplemental to the referenced analysis. Specifically, the objectives are to indicate trends in spent fuel isotopic composition with burnup and decay time; provide spent fuel pin lattice values as a function of burnup, decay time, and initial enrichment; demonstrate the variation of k eff for infinite arrays of spent fuel assemblies separated by generic cask basket designs (borated and unborated) of varying thicknesses; and verify the potential cask reactivity margin available with burnup credit via analysis with generic cask models

  3. Risk analysis for decision support in electricity distribution system asset management: methods and frameworks for analysing intangible risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nordgaard, Dag Eirik

    2010-04-15

    During the last 10 to 15 years electricity distribution companies throughout the world have been ever more focused on asset management as the guiding principle for their activities. Within asset management, risk is a key issue for distribution companies, together with handling of cost and performance. There is now an increased awareness of the need to include risk analyses into the companies' decision making processes. Much of the work on risk in electricity distribution systems has focused on aspects of reliability. This is understandable, since it is surely an important feature of the product delivered by the electricity distribution infrastructure, and it is high on the agenda for regulatory authorities in many countries. However, electricity distribution companies are also concerned with other risks relevant for their decision making. This typically involves intangible risks, such as safety, environmental impacts and company reputation. In contrast to the numerous methodologies developed for reliability risk analysis, there are relatively few applications of structured analyses to support decisions concerning intangible risks, even though they represent an important motivation for decisions taken in electricity distribution companies. The overall objective of this PhD work has been to explore risk analysis methods that can be used to improve and support decision making in electricity distribution system asset management, with an emphasis on the analysis of intangible risks. The main contributions of this thesis can be summarised as: An exploration and testing of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods to support decisions concerning intangible risks; The development of a procedure for using life curve models to provide input to QRA models; The development of a framework for risk-informed decision making where QRA are used to analyse selected problems; In addition, the results contribute to clarify the basic concepts of risk, and highlight challenges

  4. Analysing relations between specific and total liking scores

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Menichelli, Elena; Kraggerud, Hilde; Olsen, Nina Veflen

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this article is to present a new statistical approach for the study of consumer liking. Total liking data are extended by incorporating liking for specific sensory properties. The approach combines different analyses for the purpose of investigating the most important aspects...... of liking and indicating which products are similarly or differently perceived by which consumers. A method based on the differences between total liking and the specific liking variables is proposed for studying both relative differences among products and individual consumer differences. Segmentation...... is also tested out in order to distinguish consumers with the strongest differences in their liking values. The approach is illustrated by a case study, based on cheese data. In the consumer test consumers were asked to evaluate their total liking, the liking for texture and the liking for odour/taste. (C...

  5. Serum Lipid Profiles and Cancer Risk in the Context of Obesity: Four Meta-Analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melvin, J. C.; Holmberg, L.; Hemelrijck, M. V.

    2013-01-01

    The objective here was to summarize the evidence for, and quantify the link between, serum markers of lipid metabolism and risk of obesity-related cancers. Pub Med and Embase were searched using predefined inclusion criteria to conduct meta-analyses on the association between serum levels of TG, TC, HDL, ApoA-I, and risk of 11 obesity-related cancers. Pooled relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using random-effects analyses. 28 studies were included. Associations between abnormal lipid components and risk of obesity-related cancers when using clinical cut points ( TC ≥ 6.50; TG ≥ 1.71; HDL ≤ 1.03; ApoA-I ≤ 1.05 mmol/L) were apparent in all models. RRs were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.08-1.29) for TC, 1.20 (1.07-1.35) for TG, 1.15 (1.01-1.32) for HDL, and 1.42 (1.17-1.74) for ApoA-I. High levels of TC and TG, as well as low levels of HDL and ApoA-I, were consistently associated with increased risk of obesity-related cancers. The modest RRs suggest serum lipids to be associated with the risk of cancer, but indicate it is likely that other markers of the metabolism and/or lifestyle factors may also be involved. Future intervention studies involving lifestyle modification would provide insight into the potential biological role of lipid metabolism in tumorigenesis.

  6. Biodiversity analyses for risk assessment of genetically modified potato

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lazebnik, Jenny; Dicke, Marcel; Braak, ter Cajo J.F.; Loon, van Joop J.A.

    2017-01-01

    An environmental risk assessment for the introduction of genetically modified crops includes assessing the consequences for biodiversity. In this study arthropod biodiversity was measured using pitfall traps in potato agro-ecosystems in Ireland and The Netherlands over two years. We tested the

  7. Probabilistic aspects of risk analyses for hazardous facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morici, A.; Valeri, A.; Zaffiro, C.

    1989-01-01

    The work described in the paper discusses the aspects of the risk analysis concerned with the use of the probabilistic methodology, in order to see how this approach may affect the risk management of industrial hazardous facilities. To this purpose reference is done to the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants. The paper points out that even though the public aversion towards nuclear risks is still far from being removed, the probabilistic approach may provide a sound support to the decision making and authorization process for any industrial activity implying risk for the environment and the public health. It is opinion of the authors that the probabilistic techniques have been developed to a great level of sophistication in the nuclear industry and provided much more experience in this field than in others. For some particular areas of the nuclear applications, such as the plant reliability and the plant response to the accidents, these techniques have reached a sufficient level of maturity and so some results have been usefully taken as a measure of the safety level of the plant itself. The use of some limited safety goals is regarded as a relevant item of the nuclear licensing process. The paper claims that it is time now that these methods would be applied with equal success to other hazardous facilities, and makes some comparative consideration on the differences of these plants with nuclear power plants in order to understand the effect of these differences on the PRA results and on the use one intends to make with them. (author)

  8. Interactions between risk factors in the prediction of onset of eating disorders: Exploratory hypothesis generating analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stice, Eric; Desjardins, Christopher D

    2018-06-01

    Because no study has tested for interactions between risk factors in the prediction of future onset of each eating disorder, this exploratory study addressed this lacuna to generate hypotheses to be tested in future confirmatory studies. Data from three prevention trials that targeted young women at high risk for eating disorders due to body dissatisfaction (N = 1271; M age 18.5, SD 4.2) and collected diagnostic interview data over 3-year follow-up were combined to permit sufficient power to predict onset of anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), binge eating disorder (BED), and purging disorder (PD) using classification tree analyses, an analytic technique uniquely suited to detecting interactions. Low BMI was the most potent predictor of AN onset, and body dissatisfaction amplified this relation. Overeating was the most potent predictor of BN onset, and positive expectancies for thinness and body dissatisfaction amplified this relation. Body dissatisfaction was the most potent predictor of BED onset, and overeating, low dieting, and thin-ideal internalization amplified this relation. Dieting was the most potent predictor of PD onset, and negative affect and positive expectancies for thinness amplified this relation. Results provided evidence of amplifying interactions between risk factors suggestive of cumulative risk processes that were distinct for each disorder; future confirmatory studies should test the interactive hypotheses generated by these analyses. If hypotheses are confirmed, results may allow interventionists to target ultra high-risk subpopulations with more intensive prevention programs that are uniquely tailored for each eating disorder, potentially improving the yield of prevention efforts. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The necessity for comparative risk analyses as seen from the political point of view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steger, U.

    1981-01-01

    The author describes the current insufficient utilization of risk analyses in the political decision process and investigates if other technologies encounter the same difficulties of acceptance as in the nuclear energy field. This being likely he is trying to find out which contribution comparative risk analyses could make to the process of democratic will-formation so that new technologies are accepted. Firstly the author establishes theses criticizing the recent scientific efforts made in the field of risk analyses and their usability for the political decision process. He then defines the criteria risk analyses have to meet in order to serve as scientific elements for consultative political discussions. (orig./HP) [de

  10. Skin barrier and contact allergy: Genetic risk factor analyses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ross-Hansen, Katrine

    2013-01-01

    allergy. Objectives To evaluate the effect of specific gene polymorphisms on the risk of developing contact allergy by a candidate gene approach. These included polymorphisms in the glutathione S-transferase genes (GSTM1, -T1 and -P1 variants), the claudin-1 gene (CLDN1), and the filaggrin gene (FLG......) in particular. Methods Epidemiological genetic association studies were performed on a general Danish population. Participants were patch tested, answered a questionnaire on general health and were genotyped for GST, CLDN1 and FLG polymorphisms. Filaggrin’s nickel binding potential was evaluated biochemically...

  11. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses. Volume 1, Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T.; Helton, J.C.; Murfin, W.B.; Hora, S.C.

    1993-12-01

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community

  12. Analyse Risk-Return Paradox: Evidence from Electricity Sector of Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Naqi Shah, Sadia; Qayyum, Abdul

    2016-01-01

    This study analyse risk return relationship of the electricity companies of Pakistan by using the log return series of these electricity companies. Financial time series data have the property of autoregressive heteroscedasticity so move towards the GARCH family test. As the study want to analyse the risk return relationship so, GARCH-M Model of Engel et al (1987) is used, who empirically found relationship between risk and return. Results show that risk return in case of Pakistan electricity...

  13. Ion Chromatographic Analyses of Sea Waters, Brines and Related Samples

    OpenAIRE

    Nataša Gros

    2013-01-01

    This review focuses on the ion chromatographic methods for the analyses of natural waters with high ionic strength. At the beginning a natural diversity in ionic composition of waters is highlighted and terminology clarified. In continuation a brief overview of other review articles of potential interest is given. A review of ion chromatographic methods is organized in four sections. The first section comprises articles focused on the determination of ionic composition of water samples as com...

  14. Fast Multispectral Fireball Analyses and the Relation to Particles’ Aerosolization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharon, A.; Halevy, I.; Sattinger, D.; Berenstein, Z.; Neuman, R.; Banaim, P.; Pinhas, M.; Yaar, I.

    2014-01-01

    One of the key questions in analyzing the consequent risk following an explosion of radiological dispersal device (RDD) is the final radioactive particles’ size distribution caused by the detonation. Fine, respirable, aerosols behave different when compare it to large, non respirable, aerosols or to inertial particles. While aerosols (both, respirable and non respirable) are trapped inside the detonation cloud moving downwind with the cloud, heavier, inertial particles escape the initial fireball and settled on the ground at a short distances due to hydrodynamic drug. Respirable aerosols are mostly risky when inhaled into the body (internal radiation) while non respirable are risky as an external exposure agents (both on the skin and from a distance). Knowing the size distribution of the radioactive particles will, thus, enable more realistic risk assessment predictions of such events. Fast multispectral radiometry of detonation fireballs can be used as novel tool for the estimation of the RA material final size distribution

  15. Relative Age Effects in Dutch Adolescents: Concurrent and Prospective Analyses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bertus F Jeronimus

    Full Text Available The literature on relative age position effects is rather inconsistent. In this study we examined intra-classroom age position (or relative age effects on Dutch adolescents' school progress and performance (as rated by teachers, physical development, temperamental development (fear and frustration, and depressive symptoms, all adjusted for age at the time of measurement. Data were derived from three waves of Tracking Adolescents' Individuals Lives Survey (TRAILS of 2230 Dutch adolescents (baseline mean age 11.1, SD = 0.6, 51% girls. Albeit relative age predicted school progress (grade retention ORs = 0.83 for each month, skipped grade OR = 1.47, both p<.001, our key observation is the absence of substantial developmental differences as a result of relative age position in Dutch adolescents with a normative school trajectory, in contrast to most literature. For adolescents who had repeated a grade inverse relative age effects were observed, in terms of physical development and school performance, as well as on depressive symptoms, favoring the relatively young. Cross-cultural differences in relative age effect may be partly explained by the decision threshold for grade retention.

  16. Status, results and usefulness of risk analyses for HTGR type reactors of different capacity accessory to planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroeger, W.; Mertens, J.

    1985-01-01

    As regards system-inherent risks, HTGR type reactors are evaluated with reference to the established light-water-moderated reactor types. Probabilistic HTGR risk analyses have shown modern HTGR systems to possess a balanced safety concept with a risk remaining distinctly below legally accepted values. Inversely, the development and optimization of the safety concepts have been (and are being) essentially co-determined by the probabilistic analyses, as it is technically sensible and economically necessary to render the specific safety-related HTGR properties eligible for licensing. (orig./HP) [de

  17. Risk related behaviour under different ambient scent conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Alina Gagarina; Indre Pikturniene

    2016-01-01

    The article analyses the effect of two ambient scents (peppermint and vanilla) and their intensiveness on risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to identify the relationship of ambient scent type and intensiveness with risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Methodology/methods: 2×2 factorial experiment with control group was run. Ambi...

  18. Content and Citation Analyses of "Public Relations Review."

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Linda P.; Lin, Li-Yun

    1995-01-01

    Analyzes 161 cited and 177 uncited articles published in "Public Relations Review" (1975-93) to determine if 3 independent variables--research methods, type of statistics, and topics--influenced whether or not articles were cited in other research articles. Finds significant differences between quantitative and qualitative research methods but not…

  19. Ion Chromatographic Analyses of Sea Waters, Brines and Related Samples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Gros

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This review focuses on the ion chromatographic methods for the analyses of natural waters with high ionic strength. At the beginning a natural diversity in ionic composition of waters is highlighted and terminology clarified. In continuation a brief overview of other review articles of potential interest is given. A review of ion chromatographic methods is organized in four sections. The first section comprises articles focused on the determination of ionic composition of water samples as completely as possible. The sections—Selected Anions, Selected Cations and Metals—follow. The most essential experimental conditions used in different methods are summarized in tables for a rapid comparison. Techniques encountered in the reviewed articles comprise: direct determinations of ions in untreated samples with ion- or ion-exclusion chromatography, or electrostatic ion chromatography; matrix elimination with column-switching; pre-concentration with a chelation ion chromatography and purge-and-trap pre-concentration. Different detection methods were used: non-suppressed conductometric or suppressed conductometric, direct spectrometric or spectrometric after a post-column derivetization, and inductively coupled plasma in combination with optical emission or mass spectrometry.

  20. Risk Aversion Relates to Cognitive Ability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2016-01-01

    Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making, rather than to risk preferences....

  1. Risk aversion relates to cognitive ability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making rather than to risk preferences....

  2. Association between Adult Height and Risk of Colorectal, Lung, and Prostate Cancer: Results from Meta-analyses of Prospective Studies and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khankari, Nikhil K.; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Wen, Wanqing; Kraft, Peter; Lindström, Sara; Peters, Ulrike; Schildkraut, Joellen; Schumacher, Fredrick; Bofetta, Paolo; Risch, Angela; Bickeböller, Heike; Amos, Christopher I.; Easton, Douglas; Gruber, Stephen B.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hunter, David J.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Pierce, Brandon L.; Zheng, Wei

    2016-01-01

    Background Observational studies examining associations between adult height and risk of colorectal, prostate, and lung cancers have generated mixed results. We conducted meta-analyses using data from prospective cohort studies and further carried out Mendelian randomization analyses, using height-associated genetic variants identified in a genome-wide association study (GWAS), to evaluate the association of adult height with these cancers. Methods and Findings A systematic review of prospective studies was conducted using the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases. Using meta-analyses, results obtained from 62 studies were summarized for the association of a 10-cm increase in height with cancer risk. Mendelian randomization analyses were conducted using summary statistics obtained for 423 genetic variants identified from a recent GWAS of adult height and from a cancer genetics consortium study of multiple cancers that included 47,800 cases and 81,353 controls. For a 10-cm increase in height, the summary relative risks derived from the meta-analyses of prospective studies were 1.12 (95% CI 1.10, 1.15), 1.07 (95% CI 1.05, 1.10), and 1.06 (95% CI 1.02, 1.11) for colorectal, prostate, and lung cancers, respectively. Mendelian randomization analyses showed increased risks of colorectal (odds ratio [OR] = 1.58, 95% CI 1.14, 2.18) and lung cancer (OR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.00, 1.22) associated with each 10-cm increase in genetically predicted height. No association was observed for prostate cancer (OR = 1.03, 95% CI 0.92, 1.15). Our meta-analysis was limited to published studies. The sample size for the Mendelian randomization analysis of colorectal cancer was relatively small, thus affecting the precision of the point estimate. Conclusions Our study provides evidence for a potential causal association of adult height with the risk of colorectal and lung cancers and suggests that certain genetic factors and biological pathways affecting adult height may also affect the

  3. Association between Adult Height and Risk of Colorectal, Lung, and Prostate Cancer : Results from Meta-analyses of Prospective Studies and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khankari, Nikhil K.; Shu, Xiao Ou; Wen, Wanqing; Kraft, Peter; Lindström, Sara; Peters, Ulrike; Schildkraut, Joellen; Schumacher, Fredrick; Bofetta, Paolo; Risch, Angela; Bickeböller, Heike; Amos, Christopher I.; Easton, Douglas; Eeles, Rosalind A.; Gruber, Stephen B.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hunter, David J.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Pierce, Brandon L.; Zheng, Wei; Blalock, Kendra; Campbell, Peter T.; Casey, Graham; Conti, David V.; Edlund, Christopher K.; Figueiredo, Jane; James Gauderman, W.; Gong, Jian; Green, Roger C.; Harju, John F.; Harrison, Tabitha A.; Jacobs, Eric J.; Jenkins, Mark A.; Jiao, Shuo; Li, Li; Lin, Yi; Manion, Frank J.; Moreno, Victor; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Raskin, Leon; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Seminara, Daniela; Severi, Gianluca; Stenzel, Stephanie L.; Thomas, Duncan C.; Hopper, John L.; Southey, Melissa C.; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; Gibson, Lorna; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Ahsan, Habib; Whittemore, Alice; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; Hofman, Albert; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Nevanlinna, Heli; Muranen, Taru A.; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hein, Rebecca; Dahmen, Norbert; Beckman, Lars; Crisponi, Laura; Hall, Per; Czene, Kamila; Irwanto, Astrid; Liu, Jianjun; Easton, Douglas F.; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Eeles, Rosalind; Kote-Jarai, Zsofia; Muir, Kenneth; Giles, Graham; Neal, David; Donovan, Jenny L.; Hamdy, Freddie C.; Wiklund, Fredrik; Gronberg, Henrik; Haiman, Christopher; Schumacher, Fred; Travis, Ruth; Riboli, Elio; Hunter, David; Gapstur, Susan; Berndt, Sonja; Chanock, Stephen; Han, Younghun; Su, Li; Wei, Yongyue; Hung, Rayjean J.; Brhane, Yonathan; McLaughlin, John; Brennan, Paul; McKay, James D.; Rosenberger, Albert; Houlston, Richard S.; Caporaso, Neil; Teresa Landi, Maria; Heinrich, Joachim; Wu, Xifeng; Ye, Yuanqing; Christiani, David C.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Observational studies examining associations between adult height and risk of colorectal, prostate, and lung cancers have generated mixed results. We conducted meta-analyses using data from prospective cohort studies and further carried out Mendelian randomization analyses, using

  4. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

  5. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

  6. Cost/benefit and risk/benefit analyses in LMFBR program planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brewer, S.T.; Benson, R.A.; Palmer, R.S.

    1978-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the following headings: incentives analyses, uranium availability, electrical demand, the present value of future savings, alternatives to the breeder, environmental considerations, development program risks, results and conclusions. (U.K.)

  7. Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk" | Durrheim | South African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    South African Family Practice. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 45, No 8 (2003) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk". DN Durrheim ...

  8. Gene Ontology and KEGG Enrichment Analyses of Genes Related to Age-Related Macular Degeneration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Identifying disease genes is one of the most important topics in biomedicine and may facilitate studies on the mechanisms underlying disease. Age-related macular degeneration (AMD is a serious eye disease; it typically affects older adults and results in a loss of vision due to retina damage. In this study, we attempt to develop an effective method for distinguishing AMD-related genes. Gene ontology and KEGG enrichment analyses of known AMD-related genes were performed, and a classification system was established. In detail, each gene was encoded into a vector by extracting enrichment scores of the gene set, including it and its direct neighbors in STRING, and gene ontology terms or KEGG pathways. Then certain feature-selection methods, including minimum redundancy maximum relevance and incremental feature selection, were adopted to extract key features for the classification system. As a result, 720 GO terms and 11 KEGG pathways were deemed the most important factors for predicting AMD-related genes.

  9. Risk related behaviour under different ambient scent conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Gagarina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the effect of two ambient scents (peppermint and vanilla and their intensiveness on risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to identify the relationship of ambient scent type and intensiveness with risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Methodology/methods: 2×2 factorial experiment with control group was run. Ambient scent type (vanilla vs. peppermint and intensiveness (8 (1mg vs. 16 sprays (2mg of scent concentrate in the same room were manipulated as between subject variables. Risk aversion, effect of anchoring heuristic on bidding, and affect (risk and benefit heuristics were tracked as dependent variables. Scientific aim: To identify whether ambient scent type and intensiveness have effect on risk related behaviour. Findings: Evidence suggests that there are effects of ambient scent on risk related behaviour, thus fulfilling the missing gap to relate ambient environment to decision making heuristics when risks are involved. However, not all heuristics were affected by experimental conditions. Subjects were bidding significantly higher amounts under low anchor conditions, when peppermint scent was around (if compared to vanilla group. Affect risk was perceived as lower in peppermint ambient scent conditions, if compared to the control group. Intensity of ambient scent also had influence on affect risk: subjects perceived less risk under high scent intensity conditions. Conclusions: By manipulating ambient scent, marketers may reduce or increase consumers risk perception and behaviour and as a consequence influence their purchase decisions. Marketers could use peppermint scent in high intensiveness in the situations where they want consumers to undertake higher risks (expensive purchases, gambling, insurance, since stakes were higher under peppermint ambient scent condition

  10. Risk sharing relations and enforcement mechanisms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barr, A.; Dekker, M.; Fafchamps, M.

    2008-01-01

    We investigate whether the set of available enforcement mechanisms affects the formation of risk sharing relations by applying dyadic regression analysis to data from a specifically designed behavioural experiment, two surveys and a genealogical mapping exercise. During the experiment participants

  11. Human Immunodeficiency Virus Related Knowledge, Risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There was poor HIV preventive practices; indicating ... Gyawali, et al.: HIV related knowledge, risk perception and practices among married women. Annals of Medical .... of this study correspond to the Indian, Nigerian and Iranian studies cited ...

  12. Roadway related tort liability and risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    This workbook provide government employees background information related to tort liability and risk management. Past experience with lawsuits against government entities are summarized. The reasons for the lawsuits and results are analyzed. The obje...

  13. Human capital and risk aversion in relational incentive contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kvaloey, Ola

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines a self-enforced relational incentive contract between a risk neutral principal and a risk averse agent where the agent's human capital is essential in ex post realization of values. I analyse the effect of outside options on the optimal bonus level, showing how the presence of ex post outside options may impede desirable degrees of performance pay. The effect of risk aversion and incentive responsiveness is analysed by allowing for linear contracts. I show that the first order effect of these parameters are the same as in verifiable contracts, but second order effects show that the optimal bonus level's sensitivity to risk aversion and incentive responsiveness increases with the discount factor. The analysis has interesting implications on firm boundaries and specificity choices. (author)

  14. Testing for changes in spatial relative risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazelton, Martin L

    2017-07-30

    The spatial relative risk function is a useful tool for describing geographical variation in disease incidence. We consider the problem of comparing relative risk functions between two time periods, with the idea of detecting alterations in the spatial pattern of disease risk irrespective of whether there has been a change in the overall incidence rate. Using case-control datasets for each period, we use kernel smoothing methods to derive a test statistic based on the difference between the log-relative risk functions, which we term the log-relative risk ratio. For testing a null hypothesis of an unchanging spatial pattern of risk, we show how p-values can be computed using both randomization methods and an asymptotic normal approximation. The methodology is applied to data on campylobacteriosis from 2006 to 2013 in a region of New Zealand. We find clear evidence of a change in the spatial pattern of risk between those years, which can be explained in differences by response to a public health initiative between urban and rural communities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Cancer risks, risk-cost-benefit analyses, and the scientific method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Two main changes in risk analysis are increasingly beginning to influence the manner in which, in the perception of scientists, low-dose modeling of radiation carcinogenesis is supposed to be done. In the past, efforts to model radiation risks have been carried out under the banner of scientific endeavors. On closer inspection, however, it has become obvious that these efforts were not guided by the scientific method and that a change in approach is needed. We realize increasingly that risk analysis is not done in a vacuum and that any action taken due to the result of the analysis not only has a benefit in the form of a risk reduction but leads inevitably to an increase in cost and an increase in the risks of persons effecting the benefit. Thus, a risk-cost-benefit analysis should be done and show a clear-cut net benefit before a remedial action is taken

  16. Anesthesiologist- and System-Related Risk Factors for Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Anesthesia-Related Cardiac Arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zgleszewski, Steven E; Graham, Dionne A; Hickey, Paul R; Brustowicz, Robert M; Odegard, Kirsten C; Koka, Rahul; Seefelder, Christian; Navedo, Andres T; Randolph, Adrienne G

    2016-02-01

    Pediatric anesthesia-related cardiac arrest (ARCA) is an uncommon but potentially preventable adverse event. Infants and children with more severe underlying disease are at highest risk. We aimed to identify system- and anesthesiologist-related risk factors for ARCA. We analyzed a prospectively collected patient cohort data set of anesthetics administered from 2000 to 2011 to children at a large tertiary pediatric hospital. Pre-procedure systemic disease level was characterized by ASA physical status (ASA-PS). Two reviewers independently reviewed cardiac arrests and categorized their anesthesia relatedness. Factors associated with ARCA in the univariate analyses were identified for reevaluation after adjustment for patient age and ASA-PS. Cardiac arrest occurred in 142 of 276,209 anesthetics (incidence 5.1/10,000 anesthetics); 72 (2.6/10,000 anesthetics) were classified as anesthesia-related. In the univariate analyses, risk of ARCA was much higher in cardiac patients and for anesthesiologists with lower annual caseload and/or fewer annual days delivering anesthetics (all P risk adjustment for ASA-PS ≥ III and age ≤ 6 months, however, the association with lower annual days delivering anesthetics remained (P = 0.03), but the other factors were no longer significant. Case-mix explained most associations between higher risk of pediatric ARCA and anesthesiologist-related variables at our institution, but the association with fewer annual days delivering anesthetics remained. Our findings highlight the need for rigorous adjustment for patient risk factors in anesthesia patient safety studies.

  17. Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.

  18. What Risk Assessments of Genetically Modified Organisms Can Learn from Institutional Analyses of Public Health Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ravi Rajan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large.

  19. What risk assessments of genetically modified organisms can learn from institutional analyses of public health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajan, S Ravi; Letourneau, Deborah K

    2012-01-01

    The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large.

  20. Bounding the conservatism in flaw-related variables for pressure vessel integrity analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foulds, J.R.; Kennedy, E.L.

    1993-01-01

    The fracture mechanics-based integrity analysis of a pressure vessel, whether performed deterministically or probabilistically, requires use of one or more flaw-related input variables, such as flaw size, number of flaws, flaw location, and flaw type. The specific values of these variables are generally selected with the intent to ensure conservative predictions of vessel integrity. These selected values, however, are largely independent of vessel-specific inspection results, or are, at best, deduced by ''conservative'' interpretation of vessel-specific inspection results without adequate consideration of the pertinent inspection system performance (reliability). In either case, the conservatism associated with the flaw-related variables chosen for analysis remains examination (NDE) technology and the recently formulated ASME Code procedures for qualifying NDE system capability and performance (as applied to selected nuclear power plant components) now provides a systematic means of bounding the conservatism in flaw-related input variables for pressure vessel integrity analyses. This is essentially achieved by establishing probabilistic (risk)-based limits on the assigned variable values, dependent upon the vessel inspection results and on the inspection system unreliability. Described herein is this probabilistic method and its potential application to: (i) defining a vessel-specific ''reference'' flaw for calculating pressure-temperature limit curves in the deterministic evaluation of pressurized water reactor (PWR) reactor vessels, and (ii) limiting the flaw distribution input to a PWR reactor vessel-specific, probabilistic integrity analysis for pressurized thermal shock loads

  1. 76 FR 4278 - Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for the Importation of Fresh Edible Flowers of Izote...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-25

    ...] Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for the Importation of Fresh Edible Flowers of Izote... prepared pest risk analyses that evaluate the risks associated with the importation into the continental... risks of introducing or disseminating plant pests or noxious weeds via the importation of fresh edible...

  2. Scripts for TRUMP data analyses. Part II (HLA-related data): statistical analyses specific for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanda, Junya

    2016-01-01

    The Transplant Registry Unified Management Program (TRUMP) made it possible for members of the Japan Society for Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation (JSHCT) to analyze large sets of national registry data on autologous and allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. However, as the processes used to collect transplantation information are complex and differed over time, the background of these processes should be understood when using TRUMP data. Previously, information on the HLA locus of patients and donors had been collected using a questionnaire-based free-description method, resulting in some input errors. To correct minor but significant errors and provide accurate HLA matching data, the use of a Stata or EZR/R script offered by the JSHCT is strongly recommended when analyzing HLA data in the TRUMP dataset. The HLA mismatch direction, mismatch counting method, and different impacts of HLA mismatches by stem cell source are other important factors in the analysis of HLA data. Additionally, researchers should understand the statistical analyses specific for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, such as competing risk, landmark analysis, and time-dependent analysis, to correctly analyze transplant data. The data center of the JSHCT can be contacted if statistical assistance is required.

  3. Meta-analyses: does long-term PPI use increase the risk of gastric premalignant lesions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslami, Layli; Nasseri-Moghaddam, Siavosh

    2013-08-01

    Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are the most effective agents available for reducing acid secretion. They are used for medical treatment of various acid-related disorders. PPIs are used extensively and for extended periods of time in gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). A troublesome issue regarding maintenance therapy has been the propensity of PPI-treated patients to develop chronic atrophic gastritis while on therapy that could theoretically lead to an increased incidence of gastric cancer. In addition, animal studies have raised concern for development of enterochromaffin-like cell hyperplasia and carcinoid tumors in the stomachs of mice receiving high dose PPIs. Current literature does not provide a clear-cut conclusion on the subject and the reports are sometimes contradictory. Therefore, this study is a systematic review of the available literature to address the safety of long-term PPI use and its relation to the development of malignant/premalignant gastric lesions. A literature search of biomedical databases was performed. The reference lists of retrieved articles were reviewed to further identify relevant trials. We hand-searched the abstracts of the American Digestive Disease Week (DDW) and the United European Gastroenterology Week (UEGW) from 1995 to 2013. Only randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that used PPIs as the primary treatment for at least six month versus no treatment, placebo, antacid or anti-reflux surgery (ARS) were included. Two reviewers independently extracted the data. Discrepancies in the interpretation were resolved by consensus. All analyses of outcomes were based on the intention-to-treat principle. We performed statistical analysis using Review Manager software. The effect measure of choice was relative risk (RR) for dichotomous data. Six RCTs with a total of 785 patients met the inclusion criteria. Two multicenter RCTs compared Esomeprazole with placebo. One RCT compared omeprazole with ARS. Two RCTs compared omeprazole with

  4. The importance of probabilistic evaluations in connection with risk analyses according to technical safety laws

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathiak, E.

    1984-01-01

    The nuclear energy sector exemplifies the essential importance to be attached to the practical application of probabilistic evaluations (e.g. probabilistic reliability analyses) in connection with the legal risk assessment of technical systems and installations. The study is making use of a triad risk analysis and tries to reconcile the natural science and legal points of view. Without changing the definitions of 'risk' and 'hazard' in the legal sense of their meaning the publication discusses their reconcilation with the laws of natural science, their interpretation and application in view of the latter. (HSCH) [de

  5. Sandia Transportation Technical Environmental Information Center and its application to transportation risk analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foley, J.T.; Davidson, C.A.; McClure, J.D.

    1978-01-01

    Purpose of this paper is to describe an applied research activity which is fundamental to the conduct of transportation analyses: the collection, analysis, storage, and retrieval of information on the intensities of technical environments. This paper describes the collection system which provides such a service to official researchers in transportation analysis and the applications of this information in the area of risk analysis

  6. Issues and approaches in risk-based aging analyses of passive components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uryasev, S.P.; Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1994-01-01

    In previous NRC-sponsored work a general methodology was developed to quantify the risk contributions from aging components at nuclear plants. The methodology allowed Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs) to be modified to incorporate the age-dependent component failure rates and also aging maintenance models to evaluate and prioritize the aging contributions from active components using the linear aging failure rate model and empirical components aging rates. In the present paper, this methodology is extended to passive components (for example, the pipes, heat exchangers, and the vessel). The analyses of passive components bring in issues different from active components. Here, we specifically focus on three aspects that need to be addressed in risk-based aging prioritization of passive components

  7. A case against bio markers as they are currently used in radioecological risk analyses: a problem of linkage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hinton, T.G.; Brechignac, F.

    2005-01-01

    Bio-markers are successfully used in human risk analyses as early indicators of contaminant exposure and predictors of deleterious effects. This has boosted the search for bio-markers in determining ecological risks to non-human biota, and particularly for assessments related to radioactive contaminants. There are difficulties, however, that prevent an easy transfer of the bio-marker concept from humans to non-human biota, as there are significant differences in endpoints of concern, units of observation and dose response relationships between human and ecological risk analyses. The use of bio-markers in ecological risk analyses currently lacks a linkage between molecular-level effects and quantifiable impacts observed in individuals and populations. This is important because ecological risk analyses generally target the population level of biological organisation. We highlight various examples that demonstrate the difficulties of linking individual responses to population-level impacts, such as indirect effects and compensatory interactions. Eco-toxicologists cope with such difficulties through the use of uncertainty or extrapolation factors. Extrapolation factors (EF) typically range from 1 to 1000 when linking effects observed in individuals to those predicted to occur in populations. We question what magnitude of EF will be required when going from a molecular level effect, measured by a bio-marker, all the way up to the population level of biological organisation. Particularly, we stress that a successful application of bio-markers to radioecological risk assessment can only be achieved once the connection has been made between changes in individual resource allocation-based life histories and population dynamics. This clearly emphasises the need to quantify the propagation of molecular and cellular level effects to higher levels of biological organisation, especially in the long-term via several generations of exposure. Finally, we identify pertinent research

  8. Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

    2007-03-01

    To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (Ptrinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

  9. Building-related risk factors and work-related lower respiratory symptoms in 80 office buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendell, M.J.; Naco, G.M.; Wilcox, T.G.; Sieber, W.K.

    2002-01-01

    We assessed building-related risk factors for lower respiratory symptoms in office workers. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health in 1993 collected data during indoor environmental health investigations of workplaces. We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess relationships between lower respiratory symptoms in office workers and risk factors plausibly related to microbiologic contamination. Among 2,435 occupants in 80 office buildings, frequent, work-related multiple lower respiratory symptoms were strongly associated, in multivariate models, with two risk factors for microbiologic contamination: poor pan drainage under cooling coils and debris in outside air intake. Associations tended to be stronger among those with a history of physician-diagnosed asthma. These findings suggest that adverse lower respiratory health effects from indoor work environments, although unusual, may occur in relation to poorly designed or maintained ventilation systems, particularly among previously diagnosed asthmatics. These findings require confirmation in more representative buildings.

  10. Building-related risk factors and work-related lower respiratory symptoms in 80 office buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendell, M.J.; Naco, G.M.; Wilcox, T.G.; Sieber, W.K.

    2002-01-01

    We assessed building-related risk factors for lower respiratory symptoms in office workers. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health in 1993 collected data during indoor environmental health investigations of workplaces. We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess relationships between lower respiratory symptoms in office workers and risk factors plausibly related to microbiologic contamination. Among 2,435 occupants in 80 office buildings, frequent, work-related multiple lower respiratory symptoms were strongly associated, in multivariate models, with two risk factors for microbiologic contamination: poor pan drainage under cooling coils and debris in outside air intake. Associations tended to be stronger among those with a history of physician-diagnosed asthma. These findings suggest that adverse lower respiratory health effects from indoor work environments, although unusual, may occur in relation to poorly designed or maintained ventilation systems, particularly among previously diagnosed asthmatics. These findings require confirmation in more representative buildings

  11. Analyses in support of risk-informed natural gas vehicle maintenance facility codes and standards :

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekoto, Isaac W.; Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Angela Christine; LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Horne, Douglas B.

    2014-03-01

    Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed gas fueled large-scale vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operation envelopes. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase I work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest. Finally, scenario analyses were performed using detailed simulations and modeling to estimate the overpressure hazards from HAZOP defined scenarios. The results from Phase I will be used to identify significant risk contributors at NGV maintenance facilities, and are expected to form the basis for follow-on quantitative risk analysis work to address specific code requirements and identify effective accident prevention and mitigation strategies.

  12. Risk considerations related to lung modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masse, R.; Cross, F.T.

    1989-01-01

    Improved lung models provide a more accurate assessment of dose from inhalation exposures and, therefore, more accurate dose-response relationships for risk evaluation and exposure limitation. Epidemiological data for externally irradiated persons indicate that the numbers of excess respiratory tract carcinomas differ in the upper airways, bronchi, and distal lung. Neither their histogenesis and anatomical location nor their progenitor cells are known with sufficient accuracy for accurate assessment of the microdosimetry. The nuclei of sensitive cells generally can be assumed to be distributed at random in the epithelium, beneath the mucus and tips of the beating cilia and cells. In stratified epithelia, basal cells may be considered the only cells at risk. Upper-airway tumors have been observed in both therapeutically irradiated patients and in Hiroshima-Nagasaki survivors. The current International Commission on Radiological Protection Lung-Model Task Group proposes that the upper airways and lung have a similar relative risk coefficient for cancer induction. The partition of the risk weighting factor, therefore, will be proportional to the spontaneous death rate from tumors, and 80% of the weighting factor for the respiratory tract should be attributed to the lung. For Weibel lung-model branching generations 0 to 16 and 17 to 23, the Task Group proposes an 80/20 partition of the risk, i.e., 64% and 16%, respectively, of the total risk. Regarding risk in animals, recent data in rats indicate a significantly lower effectiveness for lung-cancer induction at low doses from insoluble long-lived alpha-emitters than from Rn daughters. These findings are due, in part, to the fact that different regions of the lung are irradiated. Tumors in the lymph nodes are rare in people and animals exposed to radiation.44 references

  13. Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connell, Paul P; Keane, Pearse A; O'Neill, Evelyn C; Altaie, Rasha W; Loane, Edward; Neelam, Kumari; Nolan, John M; Beatty, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  14. Risk Factors for Age-Related Maculopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul P. Connell

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Age-related maculopathy (ARM is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  15. Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Connell, Paul P

    2012-02-01

    Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715\\/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  16. 75 FR 6344 - Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for Importation of Fresh Figs, Pomegranates, and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-09

    ...] Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for Importation of Fresh Figs, Pomegranates, and Baby Kiwi...: Notice. SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared two pest risk analyses, one with... the risks of introducing or disseminating plant pests or noxious weeds via the importation of figs...

  17. 76 FR 46268 - Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for the Importation of Fresh Pitaya and Pomegranates...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-02

    ...] Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for the Importation of Fresh Pitaya and Pomegranates From.... ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared pest risk analyses that... for approving the importation of commodities that, based on the findings of a pest- risk analysis, can...

  18. 75 FR 52302 - Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for the Importation of Fresh Celery, Arugula, and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-25

    ... Inspection Service [Docket No. APHIS-2010-0074] Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for the... spinach from Colombia. We are making these pest risk analyses available to the public for review and..., based on the findings of a pest- risk analysis, can be safely imported subject to one or more of the...

  19. Night shift work and breast cancer risk: what do the meta-analyses tell us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pahwa, Manisha; Labrèche, France; Demers, Paul A

    2018-05-22

    Objectives This paper aims to compare results, assess the quality, and discuss the implications of recently published meta-analyses of night shift work and breast cancer risk. Methods A comprehensive search was conducted for meta-analyses published from 2007-2017 that included at least one pooled effect size (ES) for breast cancer associated with any night shift work exposure metric and were accompanied by a systematic literature review. Pooled ES from each meta-analysis were ascertained with a focus on ever/never exposure associations. Assessments of heterogeneity and publication bias were also extracted. The AMSTAR 2 checklist was used to evaluate quality. Results Seven meta-analyses, published from 2013-2016, collectively included 30 cohort and case-control studies spanning 1996-2016. Five meta-analyses reported pooled ES for ever/never night shift work exposure; these ranged from 0.99 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95-1.03, N=10 cohort studies) to 1.40 (95% CI 1.13-1.73, N=9 high quality studies). Estimates for duration, frequency, and cumulative night shift work exposure were scant and mostly not statistically significant. Meta-analyses of cohort, Asian, and more fully-adjusted studies generally resulted in lower pooled ES than case-control, European, American, or minimally-adjusted studies. Most reported statistically significant between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was not evident in any of the meta-analyses. Only one meta-analysis was strong in critical quality domains. Conclusions Fairly consistent elevated pooled ES were found for ever/never night shift work and breast cancer risk, but results for other shift work exposure metrics were inconclusive. Future evaluations of shift work should incorporate high quality meta-analyses that better appraise individual study quality.

  20. CHANGES SDSS: the development of a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Zhang, Kaixi; Jäger, Stefan; Assmann, Andre; Kass, Steve; Andrejchenko, Vera; Olyazadeh, Roya; Berlin, Julian; Cristal, Irina

    2014-05-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES (www.changes-itn.eu) and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO (http://www.increo-fp7.eu) a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk

  1. Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces

  2. Using relational databases for improved sequence similarity searching and large-scale genomic analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackey, Aaron J; Pearson, William R

    2004-10-01

    Relational databases are designed to integrate diverse types of information and manage large sets of search results, greatly simplifying genome-scale analyses. Relational databases are essential for management and analysis of large-scale sequence analyses, and can also be used to improve the statistical significance of similarity searches by focusing on subsets of sequence libraries most likely to contain homologs. This unit describes using relational databases to improve the efficiency of sequence similarity searching and to demonstrate various large-scale genomic analyses of homology-related data. This unit describes the installation and use of a simple protein sequence database, seqdb_demo, which is used as a basis for the other protocols. These include basic use of the database to generate a novel sequence library subset, how to extend and use seqdb_demo for the storage of sequence similarity search results and making use of various kinds of stored search results to address aspects of comparative genomic analysis.

  3. Analysing the significance of silence in qualitative interviewing: questioning and shifting power relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bengtsson, Tea Torbenfeldt; Fynbo, Lars

    2017-01-01

    In this article we analyse the significance of silence in qualitative interviews with 36 individuals interviewed about high-risk, illegal activities. We describe how silence expresses a dynamic power relationship between interviewer and interviewee. In the analysis, we focus on two different types...... significant data. We conclude that silence constitutes possibilities for interviewees and interviewers to handle the complex power at play in qualitative interviewing either by maintaining or by losing control of the situation....

  4. Environmental risk factors for autism: an evidence-based review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modabbernia, Amirhossein; Velthorst, Eva; Reichenberg, Abraham

    2017-01-01

    According to recent evidence, up to 40-50% of variance in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) liability might be determined by environmental factors. In the present paper, we conducted a review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of environmental risk factors for ASD. We assessed each review for quality of evidence and provided a brief overview of putative mechanisms of environmental risk factors for ASD. Current evidence suggests that several environmental factors including vaccination, maternal smoking, thimerosal exposure, and most likely assisted reproductive technologies are unrelated to risk of ASD. On the contrary, advanced parental age is associated with higher risk of ASD. Birth complications that are associated with trauma or ischemia and hypoxia have also shown strong links to ASD, whereas other pregnancy-related factors such as maternal obesity, maternal diabetes, and caesarian section have shown a less strong (but significant) association with risk of ASD. The reviews on nutritional elements have been inconclusive about the detrimental effects of deficiency in folic acid and omega 3, but vitamin D seems to be deficient in patients with ASD. The studies on toxic elements have been largely limited by their design, but there is enough evidence for the association between some heavy metals (most important inorganic mercury and lead) and ASD that warrants further investigation. Mechanisms of the association between environmental factors and ASD are debated but might include non-causative association (including confounding), gene-related effect, oxidative stress, inflammation, hypoxia/ischemia, endocrine disruption, neurotransmitter alterations, and interference with signaling pathways. Compared to genetic studies of ASD, studies of environmental risk factors are in their infancy and have significant methodological limitations. Future studies of ASD risk factors would benefit from a developmental psychopathology approach, prospective design, precise exposure

  5. Circulating biomarkers for predicting cardiovascular disease risk; a systematic review and comprehensive overview of meta-analyses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thijs C van Holten

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is one of the major causes of death worldwide. Assessing the risk for cardiovascular disease is an important aspect in clinical decision making and setting a therapeutic strategy, and the use of serological biomarkers may improve this. Despite an overwhelming number of studies and meta-analyses on biomarkers and cardiovascular disease, there are no comprehensive studies comparing the relevance of each biomarker. We performed a systematic review of meta-analyses on levels of serological biomarkers for atherothrombosis to compare the relevance of the most commonly studied biomarkers. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Medline and Embase were screened on search terms that were related to "arterial ischemic events" and "meta-analyses". The meta-analyses were sorted by patient groups without pre-existing cardiovascular disease, with cardiovascular disease and heterogeneous groups concerning general populations, groups with and without cardiovascular disease, or miscellaneous. These were subsequently sorted by end-point for cardiovascular disease or stroke and summarized in tables. We have identified 85 relevant full text articles, with 214 meta-analyses. Markers for primary cardiovascular events include, from high to low result: C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, the apolipoprotein A/apolipoprotein B ratio, high density lipoprotein, and vitamin D. Markers for secondary cardiovascular events include, from high to low result: cardiac troponins I and T, C-reactive protein, serum creatinine, and cystatin C. For primary stroke, fibrinogen and serum uric acid are strong risk markers. Limitations reside in that there is no acknowledged search strategy for prognostic studies or meta-analyses. CONCLUSIONS: For primary cardiovascular events, markers with strong predictive potential are mainly associated with lipids. For secondary cardiovascular events, markers are more associated with ischemia. Fibrinogen is a

  6. From volatility to value: analysing and managing financial and performance risk in energy savings projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, Evan; Kromer, Steve; Weiss, Gary; Mathew, Paul A.

    2006-01-01

    Many energy-related investments are made without a clear financial understanding of their values, risks, and volatilities. In the face of this uncertainty, the investor-such as a building owner or an energy service company-will often choose to implement only the most certain and thus limited energy-efficiency measures. Conversely, commodities traders and other sophisticated investors accustomed to evaluating investments on a value, risk, and volatility basis often overlook energy-efficiency investments because risk and volatility information are not provided. Fortunately, energy-efficiency investments easily lend themselves to such analysis using tools similar to those applied to supply side risk management. Accurate and robust analysis demands a high level of understanding of the physical aspects of energy-efficiency, which enables the translation of physical performance data into the language of investment. With a risk management analysis framework in place, the two groups-energy-efficiency experts and investment decision-makers-can exchange the information they need to expand investment in demand-side energy projects. In this article, we first present the case for financial risk analysis in energy efficiency in the buildings sector. We then describe techniques and examples of how to identify, quantify, and manage risk. Finally, we describe emerging market-based opportunities in risk management for energy efficiency

  7. Market analyses of livestock trade networks to inform the prevention of joint economic and epidemiological risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moslonka-Lefebvre, Mathieu; Gilligan, Christopher A; Monod, Hervé; Belloc, Catherine; Ezanno, Pauline; Filipe, João A N; Vergu, Elisabeta

    2016-03-01

    Conventional epidemiological studies of infections spreading through trade networks, e.g., via livestock movements, generally show that central large-size holdings (hubs) should be preferentially surveyed and controlled in order to reduce epidemic spread. However, epidemiological strategies alone may not be economically optimal when costs of control are factored in together with risks of market disruption from targeting core holdings in a supply chain. Using extensive data on animal movements in supply chains for cattle and swine in France, we introduce a method to identify effective strategies for preventing outbreaks with limited budgets while minimizing the risk of market disruptions. Our method involves the categorization of holdings based on position along the supply chain and degree of market share. Our analyses suggest that trade has a higher risk of propagating epidemics through cattle networks, which are dominated by exchanges involving wholesalers, than for swine. We assess the effectiveness of contrasting interventions from the perspectives of regulators and the market, using percolation analysis. We show that preferentially targeting minor, non-central agents can outperform targeting of hubs when the costs to stakeholders and the risks of market disturbance are considered. Our study highlights the importance of assessing joint economic-epidemiological risks in networks underlying pathogen propagation and trade. © 2016 The Authors.

  8. Risk-based analyses in support of California hazardous site remediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ringland, J.T.

    1995-08-01

    The California Environmental Enterprise (CEE) is a joint program of the Department of Energy (DOE), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories. Its goal is to make DOE laboratory expertise accessible to hazardous site cleanups in the state This support might involve working directly with parties responsible for individual cleanups or it might involve working with the California Environmental Protection Agency to develop tools that would be applicable across a broad range of sites. As part of its initial year's activities, the CEE supported a review to examine where laboratory risk and risk-based systems analysis capabilities might be most effectively applied. To this end, this study draws the following observations. The labs have a clear role in analyses supporting the demonstration and transfer of laboratory characterization or remediation technologies. The labs may have opportunities in developing broadly applicable analysis tools and computer codes for problems such as site characterization or efficient management of resources. Analysis at individual sites, separate from supporting lab technologies or prototyping general tools, may be appropriate only in limited circumstances. In any of these roles, the labs' capabilities extend beyond health risk assessment to the broader areas of risk management and risk-based systems analysis

  9. Market analyses of livestock trade networks to inform the prevention of joint economic and epidemiological risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, Christopher A.; Belloc, Catherine; Filipe, João A. N.; Vergu, Elisabeta

    2016-01-01

    Conventional epidemiological studies of infections spreading through trade networks, e.g. via livestock movements, generally show that central large-size holdings (hubs) should be preferentially surveyed and controlled in order to reduce epidemic spread. However, epidemiological strategies alone may not be economically optimal when costs of control are factored in together with risks of market disruption from targeting core holdings in a supply chain. Using extensive data on animal movements in supply chains for cattle and swine in France, we introduce a method to identify effective strategies for preventing outbreaks with limited budgets while minimizing the risk of market disruptions. Our method involves the categorization of holdings based on position along the supply chain and degree of market share. Our analyses suggest that trade has a higher risk of propagating epidemics through cattle networks, which are dominated by exchanges involving wholesalers, than for swine. We assess the effectiveness of contrasting interventions from the perspectives of regulators and the market, using percolation analysis. We show that preferentially targeting minor, non-central agents can outperform targeting of hubs when the costs to stakeholders and the risks of market disturbance are considered. Our study highlights the importance of assessing joint economic–epidemiological risks in networks underlying pathogen propagation and trade. PMID:26984191

  10. Data and analyses of phase relations in the Ce-Fe-Sb ternary system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Daiman; Xu, Chengliang; Li, Changrong; Guo, Cuiping; Zheng, Raowen; Du, Zhenmin; Li, Junqin

    2018-02-01

    These data and analyses support the research article "Experimental study on phase relations in the Ce-Fe-Sb ternary system" Zhu et al. (2017) [1]. The data and analyses presented here include the experimental results of XRD, SEM and EPMA for the determination of the whole liquidus projection and the isothermal section at 823 K in the Ce-Fe-Sb system. All the results enable the understanding of the constituent phases and the solidification processes of the as-cast alloys as well as the phase relations and the equilibrium regions at 823 K in the Ce-Fe-Sb ternary system over the entire composition.

  11. Insights from the analyses of risk-informed extension of diesel generator allowed outage time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, J.C.; He Wei

    2005-01-01

    In recent years, many U.S. nuclear plants have applied and received approval for the risk-informed extension of the Allowed Outage Time (AOT) for Emergency Diesel Generators (EDGs). These risk-informed applications need to meet the regulatory guidance on the risk criteria. This paper discusses in detail insights derived from the risk-informed analyses performed to support these applications. The risk criteria on ΔCDF/ΔLERF evaluate the increase in average risk by extending the AOT for EDGs, induced primarily by an increase in EDG maintenance unavailability due to the introduction of additional EDG preventive maintenance. By performing this preventive maintenance work on-line, the outage duration can be shortened. With proper refinement of the risk model, most plants can meet the ΔCDF/ΔLERF criteria for extending the EDGAOT from, for example, 3 days to 14 days. The key areas for model enhancements to meet these criteria include offsite/onsite power recovery, LERF modeling, etc. The most important LERF model enhancements consist of refinement of the penetrations included in the containment isolation model for the consideration of a large release, and taking credit for operator vessel depressurization during the time period between core damage and vessel failure. A recent study showed that although the frequency of loss of offsite power (LOSP) has decreased, the duration of offsite power recovery has actually increased. However, many of the events used to derive this conclusion may not be applicable to PRAs. One approach develops the offsite power non-recovery factor by first screening the LOSP events for applicability to the plant being analyzed, power operation, and LOSP initiating event, then using the remaining events data for the derivation based on the fraction of events with recovery duration longer than the time window allowed. The risk criteria on ICCDP/ICLERP examine the increase in risk from the average CDF/LERF, based on the increased maintenance

  12. People at High Risk of Developing Flu-Related Complications

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other People at High Risk of Developing Flu–Related Complications ... related complications if they get sick with influenza. People at High Risk for Developing Flu-Related Complications ...

  13. A methodology for analysing human errors of commission in accident scenarios for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, J. H.; Jung, W. D.; Park, J. K

    2003-01-01

    As the concern on the impact of the operator's inappropriate interventions, so-called Errors Of Commissions(EOCs), on the plant safety has been raised, the interest in the identification and analysis of EOC events from the risk assessment perspective becomes increasing accordingly. To this purpose, we propose a new methodology for identifying and analysing human errors of commission that might be caused from the failures in situation assessment and decision making during accident progressions given an initiating event. The proposed methodology was applied to the accident scenarios of YGN 3 and 4 NPPs, which resulted in about 10 EOC situations that need careful attention

  14. Establishing sitewide risk perspectives due to cumulative impacts from AB, EP, and NEPA hazard analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olinger, S.J.

    1998-06-01

    With the end of the Cold War in 1992, the mission for the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (Site) was changed from production of nuclear weapon components to special nuclear materials (SNM) and waste management, accelerated cleanup, reuse and closure of the Site. This change in mission presents new hazards and risk management challenges. With today's shrinking DOE budget, a balance needs to be achieved between controlling those hazards related to SNM and waste management and interim storage, and those hazards related to accelerated closure of the Site involving deactivation, decontamination, and decommissioning (DD and D) of surplus nuclear facilities. This paper discusses how risk assessments of normal operations and potential accidents have provided insights on the risks of current operations and planned closure activities

  15. Dose-related beneficial and harmful effects of gabapentin in postoperative pain management - post hoc analyses from a systematic review with meta-analyses and trial sequential analyses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fabritius, Maria Louise; Wetterslev, Jørn; Mathiesen, Ole

    2017-01-01

    versus placebo were included. Four different dose intervals were investigated: 0-350, 351-700, 701-1050, and >1050 mg. Primary co-outcomes were 24-hour morphine consumption and serious adverse events (SAEs), with emphasis put on trials with low risk of bias. Results: One hundred and twenty-two randomized...

  16. Peripheral intravenous catheter-related phlebitis and related risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nassaji-Zavareh, M; Ghorbani, R

    2007-08-01

    Peripheral intravenous catheter-related phlebitis is a common and significant problem in clinical practice. This study aims to investigate the incidence of phlebitis and to evaluate some important related factors. 300 patients admitted to medical and surgical wards of hospitals in Semnan, Iran from April 2003 to February 2004 were prospectively studied. Variables evaluated were age, gender, site and size of catheter, type of insertion and underlying conditions (diabetes mellitus, trauma, infectious disease and burns). Phlebitis was defined when at least four criteria were fulfilled (erythema, pain, tenderness, warmth, induration, palpable cord and swelling). Any patient who was discharged or their catheter removed before three days were excluded. Phlebitis occurred in 26 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI] 21- 31 percent) of patients. There was no significant relationship between age, catheter bore size, trauma and phlebitis. Related risk factors were gender (odds-ratio [OR] 1.50, 95 percent CI 1.01-2.22), site (OR 3.25, 95 percent CI 2.26-4.67) and type of insertion (OR 2.04, 95 percent CI 1.36-3.05) of catheter, diabetes mellitus (OR 7.78, 95 percent CI 4.59-13.21), infectious disease (OR 6.21, 95 percent CI 4.27-9.03) and burns (OR 3.96, 95 percent CI 3.26-4.82). Phlebitis is still an important and ongoing problem in medical practice. In patients with diabetes mellitus and infectious diseases, more attention is needed.

  17. Analysing Key Debates in Education and Sustainable Development in Relation to ESD Practice in Viet Nam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balls, Emily

    2016-01-01

    This article is based on qualitative field research carried out in Ha Noi, Viet Nam, in 2013 for an MA dissertation in Education and International Development at the UCL Institute of Education. It analyses interpretations of education for sustainable development (ESD) in Viet Nam, relating these to key debates around instrumental and democratic…

  18. Relation of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors between Parents and Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halvorsen, Tanya; Moran, Antoinette; Jacobs, David R; Steffen, Lyn M; Sinaiko, Alan R; Zhou, Xia; Steinberger, Julia

    2015-11-01

    To explore the relations of parent-child cardiometabolic risk factors and assess the influence of adiposity on these associations. Associations of adiposity, blood pressure (BP), lipids, fasting insulin and glucose, and a risk factor cluster score (CS) were evaluated in a cross-sectional study of 179 parents and their children (6-18 years, N = 255). Insulin resistance was assessed by euglycemic clamp in parents and children aged 10 years or older. Metabolic syndrome in parents was defined by National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. CSs of the risk factors were created based on age-specific z-scores. Analyses included Pearson correlation and linear regression, adjusted for parent and child age, sex, race, and body mass index (BMI), accounting for within-family correlation. We found positive parent-child correlations for measures of adiposity (BMI, BMI percentile, waist, subcutaneous fat, and visceral fat; r = 0.22-0.34, all P ≤ .003), systolic BP (r = 0.20, P = .002), total cholesterol (r = 0.39, P parent-child correlations, except systolic BP, remained significant. Although adiposity is strongly correlated between parents and children, many cardiometabolic risk factors correlate independent of parent and child BMI. Adverse parental cardiometabolic profiles may identify at-risk children independent of the child's adiposity status. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Climate Change and Food-Related Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isidro Juan Mirón Pérez

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There are two principal concepts to take into account relating food and climate change: food security and food safety. Most papers linking climate change to food risks deal with the first one: the security of the food supply.The increase of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, together with the rise of the temperatures on a global level would theorically lead to greater yields of crops grown for human and animal consumption. Howevwe, most of these studies have shown that, in general, crop yields are decreasing as this global change also brings about an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. In adition, these weather anomalies would be unevenly spread and affect developing countries, which are less capable of tackling this change, more severely. All these factors would result in greater uncertainty in the supply of food, which consequently would be less predictable and leave it more exposed to market speculation.A rise in average temperatures would be expected to increase the risk of proliferation of foodborne disease-causing microorganisms such as Salmonella or Campylobacter. Nevertheless, a trend of this sort has not been detected yet in developed countries, where information systems allow the temporal evolution of the occurrence of those diseases to be tracked, since means for food preservation and food controls are wide spread.

  20. [Health risks in different living circumstances of mothers. Analyses based on a population study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperlich, Stefanie

    2014-12-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the living circumstances ('Lebenslagen') in mothers which are associated with elevated health risks. Data were derived from a cross-sectional population based sample of German women (n = 3129) with underage children. By means of a two-step cluster analysis ten different maternal living circumstances were assessed which proved to be distinct with respect to indicators of socioeconomic position, employment status and family-related factors. Out of the ten living circumstances, one could be attributed to higher socioeconomic status (SES), while five were assigned to a middle SES and four to a lower SES. In line with previous findings, mothers with a high SES predominantly showed the best health while mothers with a low SES tended to be at higher health risk with respect to subjective health, mental health (anxiety and depression), obesity and smoking. However, there were important health differences between the different living circumstances within the middle and lower SES. In addition, varying health risks were found among different living circumstances of single mothers, pointing to the significance of family and job-related living conditions in establishing health risks. With this exploratory analysis strategy small-scale living conditions could be detected which were associated with specific health risks. This approach seemed particularly suitable to provide a more precise definition of target groups for health promotion. The findings encourage a more exrensive application of the concept of living conditions in medical sociology research as well as health monitoring.

  1. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  2. Development of reliability databases and the particular requirements of probabilistic risk analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meslin, T.

    1989-01-01

    Nuclear utilities have an increasing need to develop reliability databases for their operating experience. The purposes of these databases are often multiple, including both equipment maintenance aspects and probabilistic risk analyses. EDF has therefore been developing experience feedback databases, including the Reliability Data Recording System (SRDF) and the Event File, as well as the history of numerous operating documents. Furthermore, since the end of 1985, EDF has been preparing a probabilistic safety analysis applied to one 1,300 MWe unit, for which a large amount of data of French origin is necessary. This data concerns both component reliability parameters and initiating event frequencies. The study has thus been an opportunity for trying out the performance databases for a specific application, as well as in-depth audits of a number of nuclear sites to make it possible to validate numerous results. Computer aided data collection is also on trial in a number of plants. After describing the EDF operating experience feedback files, we discuss the particular requirements of probabilistic risk analyses, and the resources implemented by EDF to satisfy them. (author). 5 refs

  3. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

    2003-01-01

    The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

  4. Affect and Acceptability: Exploring Teachers' Technology-Related Risk Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Sarah K.

    2011-01-01

    Educational change, such as technology integration, involves risk. Teachers are encouraged to "take risks", but what risks they are asked to take and how do they perceive these risks? Developing an understanding of teachers' technology-related risk perceptions can help explain their choices and behaviours. This paper presents a way to…

  5. Risk analyses in nuclear engineerig, their value in terms of information, and their limits in terms of applicability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuser, F.W.

    1983-01-01

    This contribution first briefly explains the main pillars of the deterministic safety concept as developed in nuclear engineering, and some basic ideas on risk analyses in general. This is followed by an outline of the methodology and main purposes of risk analyses. The German Risk Study is taken as an example to discuss selected aspects with regard to information value and limits of risk analyses. The main conclusions state that risk analyses are a valuable instrument for quantitative safety evaluation, leading to a better understanding of safety problems and their prevention, and allowing a comparative assessment of various safety measures. They furthermore allow a refined evaluation of a variety of accident parameters and other impacts determining the risk emanating from accidents. The current state of the art in this sector still leaves numerous uncertainties so that risk analyses yield information for assessments rather than for definite predictions. However, the urge for quantifying the lack of knowledge leads to a better and more precise determination of the gaps still to be filled up by researchers and engineers. Thus risk analyses are a useful help in defining suitable approaches and setting up standards, showing the tasks to be fulfilled in safety research in general. (orig./HSCH) [de

  6. Threshold Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communication for Health Risks Related to Hazardous Ambient Temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Hoppe, Brenda O; Convertino, Matteo

    2018-04-10

    Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model is used to derive the exposure-response functions between daily maximum heat index and mortality (1998-2014) and morbidity (emergency department visits; 2007-2014). Specific causes considered include cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases, and diabetes. Six extreme temperature thresholds, corresponding to 1st-3rd and 97th-99th percentiles of local exposure history, are examined. All six extreme temperature thresholds capture significantly increased relative risks for all-cause mortality and morbidity. However, the cause-specific analyses reveal heterogeneity. Extreme cold thresholds capture increased mortality and morbidity risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and extreme heat thresholds for renal disease. Percentile-based extreme temperature thresholds are appropriate for initiating ERC targeting the general population. Tailoring ERC by specific causes may protect some but not all individuals with health conditions exacerbated by hazardous ambient temperature exposure. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. C4P cross-section libraries for safety analyses with SIMMER and related studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rineiski, A.; Sinitsa, V.; Gabrielli, F.; Maschek, W.

    2011-01-01

    A code and data system, C 4 P, is under development at KIT. It includes fine-group master libraries and tools for generating problem-oriented cross-section libraries, primarily for safety studies with the SIMMER code and related analyses. In the paper, the 560-group master library and problem oriented 40-group and 72-group cross-section libraries, for thermal and fast systems, respectively, are described and their performances are investigated. (author)

  8. Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anette Tarp; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

    2017-01-01

    The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

  9. Scenario sensitivity analyses performed on the PRESTO-EPA LLW risk assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandrowski, M.S.

    1988-01-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently developing standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. As part of the standard development, EPA has performed risk assessments using the PRESTO-EPA codes. A program of sensitivity analysis was conducted on the PRESTO-EPA codes, consisting of single parameter sensitivity analysis and scenario sensitivity analysis. The results of the single parameter sensitivity analysis were discussed at the 1987 DOE LLW Management Conference. Specific scenario sensitivity analyses have been completed and evaluated. Scenario assumptions that were analyzed include: site location, disposal method, form of waste, waste volume, analysis time horizon, critical radionuclides, use of buffer zones, and global health effects

  10. Analyse of the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism in the patients with dyspnea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Yanxia; Su Jian; Wang Bingsheng; Wu Songhong; Dai Ruiting; Cao Caixia

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To analyse the prevalence rate and risk factors of pulmonary embolism (PE) in patients with dyspnea and to explore the predisposing causes and its early clinical manifestations. Methods: Retrospective analysis was done in 461 patients with dyspnea performed 99 Tc m -macroaggregated albumin (MAA) lung perfusion imaging and 99 Tc m -DTPA ventilation imaging or 99 Tc m -MAA perfusion imaging and chest X-ray examination. Among them, 48 cases without apparent disease were considered as control group, whereas the remaining patients with other underlying illnesses as patients group. PEMS statistics software package was used for estimation of prevalence rate, χ 2 test and PE risk factor analysis. Results: There were 251 PE patients among 461 patients, the prevalence rate [ (π)=95% confidence interval (CI) ] was: lower extremity thrombosis and varicosity (80.79-95.47 ), post cesarean section (55.64-87.12), lower extremity bone surgery or fracture (52.76-87.27 ), cancer operation (52.19-78.19), atrial fibrillation or heart failure (53.30-74.88), obesity (23.14-50.20), post abdominal surgery (20.23-59.43), diabetes (19.12-63.95), chronic bronchitis (1.80-23.06), normal control group (3.47-22.66). Except chronic bronchitis, PE prevalence rate between patients group and control group had significant difference (P 99 Tc m -MAA and DTPA lung imaging should be done as early as possible. (authors)

  11. Managing IT-related operational risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savić Ana

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Not so long ago, information technology (IT risk occupied a small corner of operational risk - the opportunity loss from a missed IT development deadline. Today, the success of an entire financial institution may lay on managing a broad landscape of IT risks. IT risk is a potential damage to an organization's value, resulting from inadequate managing of processes and technologies. IT risk includes the failure to respond to security and privacy requirements, as well as many other issues such as: human error, internal fraud through software manipulation, external fraud by intruders, obsolesce in applications and machines, reliability issues or mismanagement. The World Economic Forum provides best information about this problem. They rank a breakdown of critical information infrastructure among the most likely core global risks, with 10-20 % likelihood over the next 10 years and potential worldwide impact of $250 billion. Sustained investment in IT - almost $1.2 trillion or 29% of 2006 private-sector capital investment in the U.S. alone fuels growing exposure to IT risk. Greg Hughes, chief strategy officer in Symantec Corp. recently claimed "IT risk management is more than using technology to solve security problems. With proper planning and broad support, it can give an organization the confidence to innovate, using IT to outdistance competitors".

  12. Conclusive meta-analyses on antenatal magnesium may be inconclusive! Are we underestimating the risk of random error?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brok, Jesper; Huusom, Lene D; Thorlund, Kristian

    2012-01-01

    Results from meta-analyses significantly influence clinical practice. Both simulation and empirical studies have demonstrated that the risk of random error (i.e. spurious chance findings) in meta-analyses is much higher than previously anticipated. Hence, authors and users of systematic reviews a...... about the investigated intervention effect(s). We outline the rationale for conducting trial sequential analysis including some examples of the meta-analysis on antenatal magnesium for women at risk of preterm birth....

  13. Association between firearm ownership, firearm-related risk and risk reduction behaviours and alcohol-related risk behaviours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wintemute, Garen J

    2011-12-01

    Alcohol use and firearm ownership are risk factors for violent injury and death. To determine whether firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours, the author conducted a cross-sectional study using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data for eight states in the USA from 1996 to 1997 (the most recent data available). Altogether, 15 474 respondents provided information on firearm exposure. After adjustment for demographics and state of residence, firearm owners were more likely than those with no firearms at home to have ≥5 drinks on one occasion (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.50), to drink and drive (OR 1.79; 95% CI 1.34 to 2.39) and to have ≥60 drinks per month (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.14 to 1.83). Heavy alcohol use was most common among firearm owners who also engaged in behaviours such as carrying a firearm for protection against other people and keeping a firearm at home that was both loaded and not locked away. The author concludes that firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours.

  14. Substance-related traffic-risk behaviors among college students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arria, Amelia M.; Caldeira, Kimberly M.; Vincent, Kathryn B.; Garnier-Dykstra, Laura M.; O’Grady, Kevin E.

    2011-01-01

    Aims Drunk driving is a major public health concern, but drugged driving has received little attention. This study examines drugged driving and riding with a drugged driver in a college student sample, in terms of prevalence, age-related trends, race/sex differences, overlap with drunk driving, and risk for alcohol and marijuana dependence. Methods Students (N=1194) ages 19 to 22 were interviewed annually for three years about past-year frequency of drugged driving, riding with a drugged/drunk driver, drunk driving, access to a car, and alcohol/drug dependence. Annual follow-up rates were excellent (88% to 91%). Repeated measures analyses were conducted using generalized estimating equations (GEE). Results One in six (17%wt) 19-year-olds with access to a car drove drugged in the past year; prevalence remained stable through age 22. Drugged driving was more prevalent among males (pdrunk (ranges between 47% and 60%). Both drugged and drunk driving were independently associated with increased risk for alcohol dependence, holding constant age, sex, and race. Drunk driving did not add to the risk for marijuana dependence in the context of drugged driving. Conclusions The prevalence of drugged driving is similar to drunk driving among college students. Both are strongly associated with underlying alcohol and drug dependence. Prevention and treatment implications are discussed. PMID:21601379

  15. Determining significant endpoints for ecological risk analyses. 1997 annual progress report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinton, T.G.; Congdon, J.; Rowe, C.; Scott, D. [Univ. of Georgia, Aiken, SC (US). Savannah River Ecology Lab.; Bedford, J.; Whicker, F.W. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (US)

    1997-11-01

    'This report summarizes the first year''s progress of research funded under the Department of Energy''s Environmental Management Science Program. The research was initiated to better determine ecological risks from toxic and radioactive contaminants. More precisely, the research is designed to determine the relevancy of sublethal cellular damage to the performance of individuals and to identify characteristics of non-human populations exposed to chronic, low-level radiation, as is typically found on many DOE sites. The authors propose to establish a protocol to assess risks to non-human species at higher levels of biological organization by relating molecular damage to more relevant responses that reflect population health. They think that they can achieve this by coupling changes in metabolic rates and energy allocation patterns to meaningful population response variables, and by using novel biological dosimeters in controlled, manipulative dose/effects experiments. They believe that a scientifically defensible endpoint for measuring ecological risks can only be determined once its understood the extent to which molecular damage from contaminant exposure is detrimental at the individual and population levels of biological organization.'

  16. BYMUR software: a free and open source tool for quantifying and visualizing multi-risk analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonini, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo

    2013-04-01

    The BYMUR software aims to provide an easy-to-use open source tool for both computing multi-risk and managing/visualizing/comparing all the inputs (e.g. hazard, fragilities and exposure) as well as the corresponding results (e.g. risk curves, risk indexes). For all inputs, a complete management of inter-model epistemic uncertainty is considered. The BYMUR software will be one of the final products provided by the homonymous ByMuR project (http://bymur.bo.ingv.it/) funded by Italian Ministry of Education, Universities and Research (MIUR), focused to (i) provide a quantitative and objective general method for a comprehensive long-term multi-risk analysis in a given area, accounting for inter-model epistemic uncertainty through Bayesian methodologies, and (ii) apply the methodology to seismic, volcanic and tsunami risks in Naples (Italy). More specifically, the BYMUR software will be able to separately account for the probabilistic hazard assessment of different kind of hazardous phenomena, the relative (time-dependent/independent) vulnerabilities and exposure data, and their possible (predefined) interactions: the software will analyze these inputs and will use them to estimate both single- and multi- risk associated to a specific target area. In addition, it will be possible to connect the software to further tools (e.g., a full hazard analysis), allowing a dynamic I/O of results. The use of Python programming language guarantees that the final software will be open source and platform independent. Moreover, thanks to the integration of some most popular and rich-featured Python scientific modules (Numpy, Matplotlib, Scipy) with the wxPython graphical user toolkit, the final tool will be equipped with a comprehensive Graphical User Interface (GUI) able to control and visualize (in the form of tables, maps and/or plots) any stage of the multi-risk analysis. The additional features of importing/exporting data in MySQL databases and/or standard XML formats (for

  17. A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

    2015-01-01

    A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

  18. Relative and absolute risk in epidemiology and health physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldsmith, R.; Peterson, H.T. Jr.

    1983-01-01

    The health risk from ionizing radiation commonly is expressed in two forms: (1) the relative risk, which is the percentage increase in natural disease rate and (2) the absolute or attributable risk which represents the difference between the natural rate and the rate associated with the agent in question. Relative risk estimates for ionizing radiation generally are higher than those expressed as the absolute risk. This raises the question of which risk estimator is the most appropriate under different conditions. The absolute risk has generally been used for radiation risk assessment, although mathematical combinations such as the arithmetic or geometric mean of both the absolute and relative risks, have also been used. Combinations of the two risk estimators are not valid because the absolute and relative risk are not independent variables. Both human epidemiologic studies and animal experimental data can be found to illustrate the functional relationship between the natural cancer risk and the risk associated with radiation. This implies that the radiation risk estimate derived from one population may not be appropriate for predictions in another population, unless it is adjusted for the difference in the natural disease incidence between the two populations

  19. Chronic and Acute Relational Risk Factors for Dating Aggression in Adolescence and Young Adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collibee, Charlene; Furman, Wyndol

    2016-04-01

    Dating aggression is a prevalent and costly public health concern. Using a relational risk framework, this study examined acute and chronic relational risk factors (negative interactions, jealousy, support, and relationship satisfaction) and their effects on physical and psychological dating aggression. The study also examined the interaction between chronic and acute risk, allowing us to assess how changes in acute risk have differing effects depending on whether the individual is typically at higher chronic risk. A sample of 200 youth (100 female) completed seven waves of data, which spanned 9 years from middle adolescence to young adulthood (M age at Wave 1 = 15.83). Using hierarchical linear modeling, analyses revealed both acute (within-person) and chronic (between-person) levels in jealousy, negative interactions, and relationship satisfaction, were associated with physical and psychological dating aggression. Significant interactions between chronic and acute risk emerged in predicting physical aggression for negative interactions, jealousy, and relationship satisfaction such that those with higher levels of chronic risk are more vulnerable to increases in acute risk. These interactions between chronic and acute risk indicate that risk is not static, and dating aggression is particularly likely to occur at certain times for youth at high risk for dating aggression. Such periods of increased risk may provide opportunities for interventions to be particularly effective in preventing dating aggression or its consequences. Taken together, these findings provide support for the role of relational risk factors for dating aggression. They also underscore the importance of considering risk dynamically.

  20. Risk Analyses of Charging Pump Control Improvements for Alternative RCP Seal Cooling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Eun-Chan [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd. Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    There are two events that significantly affect the plant risk during a TLOCCW event. One is an event in which the seal assembly of a reactor coolant pump (RCP) fails due to heating stress from the loss of cooling water; the other is an event in which the operators fail to conduct alternative cooling for the RCP seal during the accident. KHNP reviewed the replacement of the RCP seal with a qualified shutdown seal in order to remove the risk due to RCP seal failure during a TLOCCW. As an optional measure, a design improvement in the alternative cooling method for the RCP seal is being considered. This analysis presents the alternative RCP seal cooling improvement and its safety effect. K2 is a nuclear power plant with a Westinghouse design, and it has a relatively high CDF during TLOCCW events because it has a different CCW system design and difficulty in preparing alternative cooling water sources. This analysis confirmed that an operator action providing cold water to the RWST as RCP seal injection water during a TLOCCW event is very important in K2. The control circuit improvement plan for the auxiliary charging pump was established in order to reduce the failure probability of this operator action. This analysis modeled the improvement as a fault tree and evaluated the resulting CDF change. The consequence demonstrated that the RCP seal injection failure probability was reduced by 89%, and the CDF decreased by 28%.

  1. Medicine and ionizing rays: a help sheet in analysing risks in high rate curietherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2009-01-01

    This document proposes a synthesis of useful knowledge for radioprotection in the case of high rate curietherapy. Several aspects are considered: the concerned personnel, the course of treatment procedures, the hazards, the identification of the risk associated with ionizing radiation, the risk assessment and the determination of exposure levels, the strategy to control the risks (reduction of risks, technical measures concerning the installation or the personnel, teaching and information, prevention and medical monitoring), and risk control assessment

  2. Medicine and ionizing rays: a help sheet in analysing risks in pulsed rate curietherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2009-01-01

    This document proposes a synthesis of useful knowledge for radioprotection in the case of pulsed rate curietherapy. Several aspects are considered: the concerned personnel, the course of treatment procedures, the hazards, the identification of the risk associated with ionizing radiation, the risk assessment and the determination of exposure levels, the strategy to control the risks (reduction of risks, technical measures concerning the installation or the personnel, teaching and information, prevention and medical monitoring), and risk control assessment

  3. Medicine and ionizing rays: a help sheet in analysing risks in curietherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2008-01-01

    This document proposes a synthesis of useful knowledge for radioprotection in the case of low rate and not-pulsed curietherapy. Several aspects are considered: the concerned personnel, the course of treatment procedures, the hazards, the identification of the risk associated with ionizing radiation, the risk assessment and the determination of exposure levels, the strategy to control the risks (reduction of risks, technical measures concerning the installation or the personnel, teaching and information, prevention and medical monitoring), and risk control assessment

  4. Medicine and ionizing rays: a help sheet in analysing risks in exo-buccal dental radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2009-01-01

    This document proposes a synthesis of useful knowledge for radioprotection in the case of exo-buccal dental radiology. In the first part, several aspects are considered: the concerned personnel, the course of treatment procedures, the hazards, the identification of the risk associated with ionizing radiation, the risk assessment and the determination of exposure levels, the strategy to control the risks (reduction of risks, technical measures concerning the installation or the personnel, teaching and information, prevention and medical monitoring), and risk control assessment

  5. Systematic assessment of environmental risk factors for bipolar disorder: an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bortolato, Beatrice; Köhler, Cristiano A; Evangelou, Evangelos; León-Caballero, Jordi; Solmi, Marco; Stubbs, Brendon; Belbasis, Lazaros; Pacchiarotti, Isabella; Kessing, Lars V; Berk, Michael; Vieta, Eduard; Carvalho, André F

    2017-03-01

    The pathophysiology of bipolar disorder is likely to involve both genetic and environmental risk factors. In our study, we aimed to perform a systematic search of environmental risk factors for BD. In addition, we assessed possible hints of bias in this literature, and identified risk factors supported by high epidemiological credibility. We searched the Pubmed/MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycInfo databases up to 7 October 2016 to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies that assessed associations between putative environmental risk factors and BD. For each meta-analysis, we estimated its summary effect size by means of both random- and fixed-effects models, 95% confidence intervals (CIs), the 95% prediction interval, and heterogeneity. Evidence of small-study effects and excess of significance bias was also assessed. Sixteen publications met the inclusion criteria (seven meta-analyses and nine qualitative systematic reviews). Fifty-one unique environmental risk factors for BD were evaluated. Six meta-analyses investigated associations with a risk factor for BD. Only irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) emerged as a risk factor for BD supported by convincing evidence (k=6; odds ratio [OR]=2.48; 95% CI=2.35-2.61; P<.001), and childhood adversity was supported by highly suggestive evidence. Asthma and obesity were risk factors for BD supported by suggestive evidence, and seropositivity to Toxoplasma gondii and a history of head injury were supported by weak evidence. Notwithstanding that several environmental risk factors for BD were identified, few meta-analyses of observational studies were available. Therefore, further well-designed and adequately powered studies are necessary to map the environmental risk factors for BD. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

    2000-01-01

    Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

  7. Effectiveness of a selective alcohol prevention program targeting personality risk factors: Results of interaction analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, Jeroen; Goossens, Ferry; Conrod, Patricia; Engels, Rutger; Wiers, Reinout W; Kleinjan, Marloes

    2017-08-01

    To explore whether specific groups of adolescents (i.e., scoring high on personality risk traits, having a lower education level, or being male) benefit more from the Preventure intervention with regard to curbing their drinking behaviour. A clustered randomized controlled trial, with participants randomly assigned to a 2-session coping skills intervention or a control no-intervention condition. Fifteen secondary schools throughout The Netherlands; 7 schools in the intervention and 8 schools in the control condition. 699 adolescents aged 13-15; 343 allocated to the intervention and 356 to the control condition; with drinking experience and elevated scores in either negative thinking, anxiety sensitivity, impulsivity or sensation seeking. Differential effectiveness of the Preventure program was examined for the personality traits group, education level and gender on past-month binge drinking (main outcome), binge frequency, alcohol use, alcohol frequency and problem drinking, at 12months post-intervention. Preventure is a selective school-based alcohol prevention programme targeting personality risk factors. The comparator was a no-intervention control. Intervention effects were moderated by the personality traits group and by education level. More specifically, significant intervention effects were found on reducing alcohol use within the anxiety sensitivity group (OR=2.14, CI=1.40, 3.29) and reducing binge drinking (OR=1.76, CI=1.38, 2.24) and binge drinking frequency (β=0.24, p=0.04) within the sensation seeking group at 12months post-intervention. Also, lower educated young adolescents reduced binge drinking (OR=1.47, CI=1.14, 1.88), binge drinking frequency (β=0.25, p=0.04), alcohol use (OR=1.32, CI=1.06, 1.65) and alcohol use frequency (β=0.47, p=0.01), but not those in the higher education group. Post hoc latent-growth analyses revealed significant effects on the development of binge drinking (β=-0.19, p=0.02) and binge drinking frequency (β=-0.10, p=0

  8. Radon in homes and risk of lung cancer: 13 collaborative analyses of individual data from European case-control studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darby, S.; Hill, D.; Doll, R.; Auvinen, A.; Barros Dios, J.M.; Ruano Ravina, A.; Baysson, H.; Tirmarche, M.; Bochicchio, F.; Deo, H.; Falk, R.; Forastiere, F.; Hakama, M.; Heid, I.; Schaffrath Rosario, A.; Wichmann, H.E.; Kreienbrock, L.; Kreuzer, M.; Lagarde, F.; Pershagen, G.; Makelainen, I.; Ruosteenoja, E.; Muirhead, C.; Oberaigner, W.; TomaBek, L.; Whitley, E.

    2007-01-01

    Objective: To determine the risk of lung cancer associated with exposure at home to the radioactive disintegration products of naturally occurring radon gas. Design: Collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 case-control studies of residential radon and lung cancer. Setting: Nine European countries. Subjects: 7148 cases of lung cancer and 14 208 controls. Main outcome measures: Relative risks of lung cancer and radon gas concentrations in homes inhabited during the previous 5-34 years measured in becquerels (radon disintegrations per second) per cubic metre (Bq/m3) of household air. Results: The mean measured radon concentration in homes of people in the control group was 97 Bq/m3, with 11% measuring > 200 and 4% measuring > 400 Bq/m3. For cases of lung cancer the mean concentration was 104 Bq/m3. The risk of lung cancer increased by 8.4% (95% confidence interval 3.0% to 15.8%) per 100 Bq/m3 increase in measured radon (P=0.0007). This corresponds to an increase of 16% (5% to 31%) per 100 Bq/m3 increase in usual radon- that is, after correction for the dilution caused by random uncertainties in measuring radon concentrations. The dose-response relation seemed to be linear with no threshold and remained significant (P = 0.04) in analyses limited to individuals from homes with measured radon < 200 Bq/m3. The proportionate excess risk did not differ significantly with study, age, sex, or smoking. In the absence of other causes of death, the absolute risks of lung cancer by age 75 years at usual radon concentrations of 0, 100, and 400 Bq/m3 would be about 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.7%, respectively, for lifelong non-smokers, and about 25 times greater (10%, 12%, and 16%) for cigarette smokers. Conclusions: Collectively, though not separately, these studies show appreciable hazards from residential radon, particularly for smokers and recent ex-smokers, and indicate that it is responsible for about 2% of all deaths from cancer in Europe. (author)

  9. Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tarp Hansen, Anette; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

    2017-01-01

    The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

  10. A risk-factor analysis of medical litigation judgments related to fall injuries in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Insook; Won, Seonae; Lee, Mijin; Lee, Won

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to find out the risk factors through analysis of seven medical malpractice judgments related to fall injuries. The risk factors were analysed by using the framework that approaches falls from a systems perspective and comprised people, organisational or environmental factors, with each factor being comprised of subfactors. The risk factors found in each of the seven judgments were aggregated into one framework. The risk factors related to patients (i.e. the people factor) were age, pain, related disease, activities and functional status, urination state, cognitive function impairment, past history of fall, blood transfusion, sleep endoscopy state and uncooperative attitude. The risk factors related to the medical staff and caregivers (i.e. people factor) were observation negligence, no fall prevention activities and negligence in managing high-risk group for fall. Organisational risk factors were a lack of workforce, a lack of training, neglecting the management of the high-risk group, neglecting the management of caregivers and the absence of a fall prevention procedure. Regarding the environment, the risk factors were found to be the emergency room, chairs without a backrest and the examination table. Identifying risk factors is essential for preventing fall accidents, since falls are preventable patient-safety incidents. Falls do not happen as a result of a single risk factor. Therefore, a systems approach is effective to identify risk factors, especially organisational and environmental factors.

  11. Predicting Geomorphic and Hydrologic Risks after Wildfire Using Harmonic and Stochastic Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikesell, J.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Florsheim, J. L.; Chin, A.; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, S.

    2017-12-01

    Wildfire is a landscape-scale disturbance that often alters hydrological processes and sediment flux during subsequent storms. Vegetation loss from wildfires induce changes to sediment supply such as channel erosion and sedimentation and streamflow magnitude or flooding. These changes enhance downstream hazards, threatening human populations and physical aquatic habitat over various time scales. Using Williams Canyon, a basin burned by the Waldo Canyon Fire (2012) as a case study, we utilize deterministic and statistical modeling methods (Fourier series and first order Markov chain) to assess pre- and post-fire geomorphic and hydrologic characteristics, including of precipitation, enhanced vegetation index (EVI, a satellite-based proxy of vegetation biomass), streamflow, and sediment flux. Local precipitation, terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) scanning, and satellite-based products are used for these time series analyses. We present a framework to assess variability of periodic and nonperiodic climatic and multivariate trends to inform development of a post-wildfire risk assessment methodology. To establish the extent to which a wildfire affects hydrologic and geomorphic patterns, a Fourier series was used to fit pre- and post-fire geomorphic and hydrologic characteristics to yearly temporal cycles and subcycles of 6, 4, 3, and 2.4 months. These cycles were analyzed using least-squares estimates of the harmonic coefficients or amplitudes of each sub-cycle's contribution to fit the overall behavior of a Fourier series. The stochastic variances of these characteristics were analyzed by composing first-order Markov models and probabilistic analysis through direct likelihood estimates. Preliminary results highlight an increased dependence of monthly post-fire hydrologic characteristics on 12 and 6-month temporal cycles. This statistical and probabilistic analysis provides a basis to determine the impact of wildfires on the temporal dependence of

  12. Risk factors for headache in the UK military: cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rona, Roberto J; Jones, Margaret; Goodwin, Laura; Hull, Lisa; Wessely, Simon

    2013-05-01

    To assess the importance of service demographic, mental disorders, and deployment factors on headache severity and prevalence, and to assess the impact of headache on functional impairment. There is no information on prevalence and risk factors of headache in the UK military. Recent US reports suggest that deployment, especially a combat role, is associated with headache. Such an association may have serious consequences on personnel during deployment. A survey was carried out between 2004 and 2006 (phase 1) and again between 2007 and 2009 (phase 2) of randomly selected UK military personnel to study the health consequences of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. This study is based on those who participated in phase 2 and includes cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses. Headache severity in the last month and functional impairment at phase 2 were the main outcomes. Forty-six percent complained of headache in phase 2, half of whom endorsed moderate or severe headache. Severe headache was strongly associated with probable post-traumatic stress disorder (multinomial odds ratio [MOR] 9.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.4-14.2), psychological distress (MOR 6.15, 95% CI 4.8-7.9), multiple physical symptoms (MOR 18.2, 95% CI 13.4-24.6) and self-reported mild traumatic brain injury (MOR 3.5, 95% CI 1.4-8.6) after adjustment for service demographic factors. Mild headache was also associated with these variables but at a lower level. Moderate and severe headache were associated with functional impairment, but the association was partially explained by mental disorders. Mental ill health was also associated with reporting moderate and severe headache at both phase 1 and phase 2. Deployment and a combat role were not associated with headache. Moderate and severe headache are common in the military and have an impact on functional impairment. They are more strongly associated with mental disorders than with mild traumatic brain injury. © 2013 American Headache Society.

  13. Analysing collaboration among HIV agencies through combining network theory and relational coordination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khosla, Nidhi; Marsteller, Jill Ann; Hsu, Yea Jen; Elliott, David L

    2016-02-01

    Agencies with different foci (e.g. nutrition, social, medical, housing) serve people living with HIV (PLHIV). Serving needs of PLHIV comprehensively requires a high degree of coordination among agencies which often benefits from more frequent communication. We combined Social Network theory and Relational Coordination theory to study coordination among HIV agencies in Baltimore. Social Network theory implies that actors (e.g., HIV agencies) establish linkages amongst themselves in order to access resources (e.g., information). Relational Coordination theory suggests that high quality coordination among agencies or teams relies on the seven dimensions of frequency, timeliness and accuracy of communication, problem-solving communication, knowledge of agencies' work, mutual respect and shared goals. We collected data on frequency of contact from 57 agencies using a roster method. Response options were ordinal ranging from 'not at all' to 'daily'. We analyzed data using social network measures. Next, we selected agencies with which at least one-third of the sample reported monthly or more frequent interaction. This yielded 11 agencies whom we surveyed on seven relational coordination dimensions with questions scored on a Likert scale of 1-5. Network density, defined as the proportion of existing connections to all possible connections, was 20% when considering monthly or higher interaction. Relational coordination scores from individual agencies to others ranged between 1.17 and 5.00 (maximum possible score 5). The average scores for different dimensions across all agencies ranged between 3.30 and 4.00. Shared goals (4.00) and mutual respect (3.91) scores were highest, while scores such as knowledge of each other's work and problem-solving communication were relatively lower. Combining theoretically driven analyses in this manner offers an innovative way to provide a comprehensive picture of inter-agency coordination and the quality of exchange that underlies

  14. Immunochip analyses identify a novel risk locus for primary biliary cirrhosis at 13q14, multiple independent associations at four established risk loci and epistasis between 1p31 and 7q32 risk variants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juran, Brian D.; Hirschfield, Gideon M.; Invernizzi, Pietro; Atkinson, Elizabeth J.; Li, Yafang; Xie, Gang; Kosoy, Roman; Ransom, Michael; Sun, Ye; Bianchi, Ilaria; Schlicht, Erik M.; Lleo, Ana; Coltescu, Catalina; Bernuzzi, Francesca; Podda, Mauro; Lammert, Craig; Shigeta, Russell; Chan, Landon L.; Balschun, Tobias; Marconi, Maurizio; Cusi, Daniele; Heathcote, E. Jenny; Mason, Andrew L.; Myers, Robert P.; Milkiewicz, Piotr; Odin, Joseph A.; Luketic, Velimir A.; Bacon, Bruce R.; Bodenheimer, Henry C.; Liakina, Valentina; Vincent, Catherine; Levy, Cynthia; Franke, Andre; Gregersen, Peter K.; Bossa, Fabrizio; Gershwin, M. Eric; deAndrade, Mariza; Amos, Christopher I.; Lazaridis, Konstantinos N.; Seldin, Michael F.; Siminovitch, Katherine A.

    2012-01-01

    To further characterize the genetic basis of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), we genotyped 2426 PBC patients and 5731 unaffected controls from three independent cohorts using a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array (Immunochip) enriched for autoimmune disease risk loci. Meta-analysis of the genotype data sets identified a novel disease-associated locus near the TNFSF11 gene at 13q14, provided evidence for association at six additional immune-related loci not previously implicated in PBC and confirmed associations at 19 of 22 established risk loci. Results of conditional analyses also provided evidence for multiple independent association signals at four risk loci, with haplotype analyses suggesting independent SNP effects at the 2q32 and 16p13 loci, but complex haplotype driven effects at the 3q25 and 6p21 loci. By imputing classical HLA alleles from this data set, four class II alleles independently contributing to the association signal from this region were identified. Imputation of genotypes at the non-HLA loci also provided additional associations, but none with stronger effects than the genotyped variants. An epistatic interaction between the IL12RB2 risk locus at 1p31and the IRF5 risk locus at 7q32 was also identified and suggests a complementary effect of these loci in predisposing to disease. These data expand the repertoire of genes with potential roles in PBC pathogenesis that need to be explored by follow-up biological studies. PMID:22936693

  15. Disentangling the effects of forage, social rank, and risk on movement autocorrelation of elephants using Fourier and wavelet analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittemyer, George; Polansky, Leo; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain; Getz, Wayne M

    2008-12-09

    The internal state of an individual-as it relates to thirst, hunger, fear, or reproductive drive-can be inferred by referencing points on its movement path to external environmental and sociological variables. Using time-series approaches to characterize autocorrelative properties of step-length movements collated every 3 h for seven free-ranging African elephants, we examined the influence of social rank, predation risk, and seasonal variation in resource abundance on periodic properties of movement. The frequency domain methods of Fourier and wavelet analyses provide compact summaries of temporal autocorrelation and show both strong diurnal and seasonal based periodicities in the step-length time series. This autocorrelation is weaker during the wet season, indicating random movements are more common when ecological conditions are good. Periodograms of socially dominant individuals are consistent across seasons, whereas subordinate individuals show distinct differences diverging from that of dominants during the dry season. We link temporally localized statistical properties of movement to landscape features and find that diurnal movement correlation is more common within protected wildlife areas, and multiday movement correlations found among lower ranked individuals are typically outside of protected areas where predation risks are greatest. A frequency-related spatial analysis of movement-step lengths reveal that rest cycles related to the spatial distribution of critical resources (i.e., forage and water) are responsible for creating the observed patterns. Our approach generates unique information regarding the spatial-temporal interplay between environmental and individual characteristics, providing an original approach for understanding the movement ecology of individual animals and the spatial organization of animal populations.

  16. Safety in relation to risk and benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddall, E.

    1985-01-01

    The proper definition and quantification of human safety is discussed and from this basis the historical development of our present very high standard of safety is traced. It is shown that increased safety is closely associated with increased wealth, and the quantitative relationship between then is derived from different sources of evidence. When this factor is applied to the production of wealth by industry, a safety benefit is indicated which exceeds the asserted risks by orders of magnitude. It is concluded that present policies and attitudes in respect to the safety of industry may be diametrically wrong. (orig.) [de

  17. Impact of cardiovascular risk factors on medical expenditure: evidence from epidemiological studies analysing data on health checkups and medical insurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Koshi

    2014-01-01

    Concerns have increasingly been raised about the medical economic burden in Japan, of which approximately 20% is attributable to cardiovascular disease, including coronary heart disease and stroke. Because the management of risk factors is essential for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, it is important to understand the relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and medical expenditure in the Japanese population. However, only a few Japanese epidemiological studies analysing data on health checkups and medical insurance have provided evidence on this topic. Patients with cardiovascular risk factors, including obesity, hypertension, and diabetes, may incur medical expenditures through treatment of the risk factors themselves and through procedures for associated diseases that usually require hospitalization and sometimes result in death. Untreated risk factors may cause medical expenditure surges, mainly due to long-term hospitalization, more often than risk factors preventively treated by medication. On an individual patient level, medical expenditures increase with the number of concomitant cardiovascular risk factors. For single risk factors, personal medical expenditure may increase with the severity of that factor. However, on a population level, the medical economic burden attributable to cardiovascular risk factors results largely from a single, particularly prevalent risk factor, especially from mildly-to-moderately abnormal levels of the factor. Therefore, cardiovascular risk factors require management on the basis of both a cost-effective strategy of treating high-risk patients and a population strategy for reducing both the ill health and medical economic burdens that result from cardiovascular disease.

  18. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  19. Accounting for Heterogeneity in Relative Treatment Effects for Use in Cost-Effectiveness Models and Value-of-Information Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welton, Nicky J; Soares, Marta O; Palmer, Stephen; Ades, Anthony E; Harrison, David; Shankar-Hari, Manu; Rowan, Kathy M

    2015-07-01

    Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) models are routinely used to inform health care policy. Key model inputs include relative effectiveness of competing treatments, typically informed by meta-analysis. Heterogeneity is ubiquitous in meta-analysis, and random effects models are usually used when there is variability in effects across studies. In the absence of observed treatment effect modifiers, various summaries from the random effects distribution (random effects mean, predictive distribution, random effects distribution, or study-specific estimate [shrunken or independent of other studies]) can be used depending on the relationship between the setting for the decision (population characteristics, treatment definitions, and other contextual factors) and the included studies. If covariates have been measured that could potentially explain the heterogeneity, then these can be included in a meta-regression model. We describe how covariates can be included in a network meta-analysis model and how the output from such an analysis can be used in a CEA model. We outline a model selection procedure to help choose between competing models and stress the importance of clinical input. We illustrate the approach with a health technology assessment of intravenous immunoglobulin for the management of adult patients with severe sepsis in an intensive care setting, which exemplifies how risk of bias information can be incorporated into CEA models. We show that the results of the CEA and value-of-information analyses are sensitive to the model and highlight the importance of sensitivity analyses when conducting CEA in the presence of heterogeneity. The methods presented extend naturally to heterogeneity in other model inputs, such as baseline risk. © The Author(s) 2015.

  20. Direct comparison of risk-adjusted and non-risk-adjusted CUSUM analyses of coronary artery bypass surgery outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novick, Richard J; Fox, Stephanie A; Stitt, Larry W; Forbes, Thomas L; Steiner, Stefan

    2006-08-01

    We previously applied non-risk-adjusted cumulative sum methods to analyze coronary bypass outcomes. The objective of this study was to assess the incremental advantage of risk-adjusted cumulative sum methods in this setting. Prospective data were collected in 793 consecutive patients who underwent coronary bypass grafting performed by a single surgeon during a period of 5 years. The composite occurrence of an "adverse outcome" included mortality or any of 10 major complications. An institutional logistic regression model for adverse outcome was developed by using 2608 contemporaneous patients undergoing coronary bypass. The predicted risk of adverse outcome in each of the surgeon's 793 patients was then calculated. A risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve was then generated after specifying control limits and odds ratio. This risk-adjusted curve was compared with the non-risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve, and the clinical significance of this difference was assessed. The surgeon's adverse outcome rate was 96 of 793 (12.1%) versus 270 of 1815 (14.9%) for all the other institution's surgeons combined (P = .06). The non-risk-adjusted curve reached below the lower control limit, signifying excellent outcomes between cases 164 and 313, 323 and 407, and 667 and 793, but transgressed the upper limit between cases 461 and 478. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve never transgressed the upper control limit, signifying that cases preceding and including 461 to 478 were at an increased predicted risk. Furthermore, if the risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve was reset to zero whenever a control limit was reached, it still signaled a decrease in adverse outcome at 166, 653, and 782 cases. Risk-adjusted cumulative sum techniques provide incremental advantages over non-risk-adjusted methods by not signaling a decrement in performance when preoperative patient risk is high.

  1. Examining the associations between HIV-related stigma and health outcomes in people living with HIV/AIDS: a series of meta-analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Sanjana; Chen, Shiyi; Gogolishvili, David; Globerman, Jason; Chambers, Lori; Wilson, Mike; Logie, Carmen H; Shi, Qiyun; Morassaei, Sara; Rourke, Sean B

    2016-01-01

    Objective To conduct a systematic review and series of meta-analyses on the association between HIV-related stigma and health among people living with HIV. Data sources A structured search was conducted on 6 electronic databases for journal articles reporting associations between HIV-related stigma and health-related outcomes published between 1996 and 2013. Study eligibility criteria Controlled studies, cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies in people living with HIV were considered for inclusion. Outcome measures Mental health (depressive symptoms, emotional and mental distress, anxiety), quality of life, physical health, social support, adherence to antiretroviral therapy, access to and usage of health/social services and risk behaviours. Results 64 studies were included in our meta-analyses. We found significant associations between HIV-related stigma and higher rates of depression, lower social support and lower levels of adherence to antiretroviral medications and access to and usage of health and social services. Weaker relationships were observed between HIV-related stigma and anxiety, quality of life, physical health, emotional and mental distress and sexual risk practices. While risk of bias assessments revealed overall good quality related to how HIV stigma and health outcomes were measured on the included studies, high risk of bias among individual studies was observed in terms of appropriate control for potential confounders. Additional research should focus on elucidating the mechanisms behind the negative relationship between stigma and health to better inform interventions to reduce the impact of stigma on the health and well-being of people with HIV. Conclusions This systematic review and series of meta-analyses support the notion that HIV-related stigma has a detrimental impact on a variety of health-related outcomes in people with HIV. This review can inform the development of multifaceted, intersectoral interventions to

  2. The perils of picky eating: dietary breadth is related to extinction risk in insectivorous bats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin G Boyles

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Several recent papers evaluate the relationship between ecological characteristics and extinction risk in bats. These studies report that extinction risk is negatively related to geographic range size and positively related to habitat specialization. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that extinction risk is also related to dietary specialization in insectivorous vespertilionid bats using both traditional and phylogenetically-controlled analysis of variance. We collected dietary data and The World Conservation Union (IUCN rankings for 44 Australian, European, and North American bat species. Our results indicate that species of conservation concern (IUCN ranking near threatened or above are more likely to have a specialized diet than are species of least concern. Additional analyses show that dietary breadth is not correlated to geographic range size or wing morphology, characteristics previously found to correlate with extinction risk. Therefore, there is likely a direct relationship between dietary specialization and extinction risk; however, the large variation in dietary breadth within species of least concern suggests that diet alone cannot explain extinction risk. Our results may have important implications for the development of predictive models of extinction risk and for the assignment of extinction risk to insectivorous bat species. Similar analyses should be conducted on additional bat families to assess the generality of this relationship between niche breadth and extinction risk.

  3. Humorous Relations: Attentiveness, Pleasure and Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayo, Cris

    2014-01-01

    This article focuses on the structures of humor and joke telling that require particular kinds of attentiveness and particular relationships between speaker and audience, or more specifically, between classmates. First, I will analyze the pedagogical and relational preconditions that are necessary for humor to work. If humor is to work well, the…

  4. Elderly Taiwanese's Intrinsic Risk Factors for Fall-related Injuries

    OpenAIRE

    In-Fun Li; Yvonne Hsiung; Hui-Fen Hsing; Mei-Yu Lee; Te-Hsin Chang; Ming-Yuan Huang

    2016-01-01

    Background: As a vital issue in geriatric research, risk factors for falls were concluded to be multifactorial, and prevention has been mostly aimed at decreasing situational and environmental risks that cause and aggravate fall-related injuries, particularly within the institutions. While knowledge is limited about older patients' intrinsic determinants, the purpose of this study was to explore elderly Taiwanese's intrinsic risk factors associated with severe fall-related injuries. Method...

  5. Public attitudes towards industrial, work-related and other risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prescott-Clarke, P.

    1982-01-01

    Two reports describing work sponsored by the Health and Safety Executive are presented. The first describes a study of public attitudes towards industrial, work related, nuclear industry related and other risks. The second report describes public attitudes towards the acceptability of risks. (U.K.)

  6. Brain tumour risk in relation to mobile telephone use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Christoffer

    2010-01-01

    The rapid increase in mobile telephone use has generated concern about possible health risks related to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from this technology.......The rapid increase in mobile telephone use has generated concern about possible health risks related to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from this technology....

  7. Teleseism-based Relative Time Corrections for Modern Analyses of Digitized Analog Seismograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, T. A.; Ishii, M.

    2017-12-01

    With modern-day instruments and seismic networks timed by GPS systems, synchronization of data streams is all but a forgone conclusion. However, during the analog era, when each station had its own clock, comparing data timing from different stations was a far more daunting prospect. Today, with recently developed methods by which analog data can be digitized, having the ability to accurately reconcile the timings of two separate stations would open decades worth of data to modern analyses. For example, one possible and exciting application would be using noise interferometry with digitized analog data in order to investigate changing structural features (on a volcano for example) over a much longer timescale than was previously possible. With this in mind, we introduce a new approach to sync time between stations based on teleseismic arrivals. P-wave arrivals are identified at stations for pairs of earthquakes from the digital and analog eras that have nearly identical distances, locations, and depths. Assuming accurate timing of the modern data, relative time corrections between a pair of stations can then be inferred for the analog data. This method for time correction depends upon the analog stations having modern equivalents, and both having sufficiently long durations of operation to allow for recording of usable teleseismic events. The Hawaii Volcano Observatory (HVO) network is an especially ideal environment for this, as it not only has a large and well-preserved collection of analog seismograms, but also has a long operating history (1912 - present) with many of the older stations having modern equivalents. As such, the scope of this project is to calculate and apply relative time corrections to analog data from two HVO stations, HILB (1919-present) and UWE (1928-present)(HILB now part of Pacific Tsunami network). Further application of this method could be for investigation of the effects of relative clock-drift, that is, the determining factor for how

  8. Binge drinking among adolescents: prevalence, risk practices and related variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golpe, Sandra; Isorna, Manuel; Barreiro, Carmen; Braña, Teresa; Rial, Antonio

    2017-09-29

    According to the last Survey on Drug Use among Secondary School Students (ESTUDES 2014-2015), consumption levels of alcohol and other substances have decreased in the last years in Spain. However, available data on binge drinking remain worrying, given the negative consequences related with this pattern. The aim of this paper is to analyse binge drinking among adolescents, providing updated data on prevalence in addition to information about the consequences and some predictive factors of binge drinking. A correlational method was used for this purpose, comprised of administering a survey to Compulsory Secondary School, High School and Vocational Training students. Based on a sample of 3,419 Galician adolescents aged between 12 and 18 years (M = 14.57; SD = 1.76), the results show that binge drinking is a common and global practice, with few socio-demographic differences but related with a wide range of risk practices. Furthermore, variables such as consumption expectancies, consumption by family and friends, as well as curfew time and allowance money have been identified as interesting predictive factors that should be taken into account at the preventive level.

  9. Analyses of associations between reactive oxygen metabolites and antioxidant capacity and related factors among healthy adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamae, Kazuyoshi; Eto, Toshiharu; Aoki, Kazuhiro; Nakamaru, Shingo; Koshikawa, Kazunori; Sakuma, Kazuhiko; Hirano, Takeshi

    2013-12-01

    Evidence based on epidemiologic investigations using biochemical parameter is meaningful for health promotion and administration among adolescents. We conducted Reactive Oxygen Metabolites (ROM) and Biological Antioxidant Potentials (BAP) tests, along with a questionnaire survey, for a sample of 74 high school students (16.51±0.11 years of aged mean±SE), to investigate the associations between ROM, BAP, and related factors, including BMI and blood biochemical data. Venous blood samples (approximately 7cc) were collected. At the same time, each individual's information was obtained from the questionnaire. The mental health status was investigated using the Center for Epidemiologic Study Depression scale (CES-D) included in the same questionnaire. The mean values and standard errors of all variables were calculated. In addition, the relationships between ROM and BAP with these factors were analyzed. The results revealed the preferred levels of ROM (261.95 ± 9.52 U.CARR) and, BAP (2429.89±53.39 µmol/L) and blood biochemical data. Few significant relationships between two markers and related factors were found. So, we detected a cluster with an imbalance between ROM and BAP, which means low antioxidant ability, whereas the other clusters had conditions with moderate balance or good balance between them. Moreover, we determined the Oxidative stress-Antioxidant capacity ratio (OAR), using the ROM and BAP values, in order to clarify the characteristic of the detected clusters.However, comparative analyses across the three clusters did not yield significant differences in all related factors. No correlations between ROM, BAP and related factors were indicated, although significant association between ROM and BAP was observed (R2=0.1156, R=0.340, P=0.013). The reason for these results can be explained by the influences of good health and young age. On the other hand, present study suggests that some latent problems among adolescents may be related to unhealthy

  10. Treatment-related changes in serum lipids and inflammation: clinical relevance remains unclear. Analyses from the Women's Interagency HIV Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrinello, Christina M; Landay, Alan L; Hodis, Howard N; Gange, Stephen J; Norris, Philip J; Young, Mary; Anastos, Kathryn; Tien, Phyllis C; Xue, Xiaonan; Lazar, Jason; Benning, Lorie; Tracy, Russell P; Kaplan, Robert C

    2014-01-01

    Summary Among 127 HIV-infected women, the magnitude of HDLc increases after HAART initiation predicted the magnitude of concurrent decreases in inflammation biomarkers. After HAART initiation, changes in LDLc and inflammation were unrelated. In the same population, predicted risk of coronary heart disease based upon levels of standard clinical risk factors was similar before and after HAART treatment. Thus, it remains unknown whether short-term treatment-related changes in standard risk factors may appreciably change risk of CVD. PMID:23435295

  11. Omega-3 Supplementation and Loneliness-Related Memory Problems: Secondary Analyses Of A Randomized Controlled Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaremka, Lisa M.; Derry, Heather M.; Bornstein, Robert; Prakash, Ruchika Shaurya; Peng, Juan; Belury, Martha A.; Andridge, Rebecca R.; Malarkey, William B.; Kiecolt-Glaser, Janice K.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Loneliness enhances risk for episodic memory declines over time. Omega-3 supplementation can improve cognitive function for people experiencing mild cognitive difficulties. Accordingly, we explored whether omega-3 supplementation would attenuate loneliness-related episodic memory problems. Methods Participants (N=138) from a parent randomized controlled trial (RCT) were randomized to the placebo, 1.25 grams/day of omega-3, or 2.50 grams/day of omega-3 conditions for a 4-month period. They completed a baseline loneliness questionnaire and a battery of cognitive tests both at baseline and at the end of the RCT. Results Controlling for baseline verbal episodic memory scores, lonelier people within the placebo condition had poorer verbal episodic memory post-supplementation, as measured by immediate (b = −0.28, t(117) = −2.62, p = .010) and long-delay (b = −.06, t(116) = −2.07, p = .040) free recall, than their less lonely counterparts. This effect was not observed in the 1.25 grams/day and 2.50 grams/day supplementation groups, all p values > .10. The plasma omega-6:omega-3 ratio data mirrored these results. There were no loneliness-related effects of omega-3 supplementation on short-delay recall or the other cognitive tests, all p values > .32. Conclusion These results suggest that omega-3 supplementation attenuates loneliness-related verbal episodic memory declines over time and support the utility of exploring novel interventions for treating episodic memory problems among lonely people. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00385723 PMID:25264972

  12. Assessing the risk of work-related international travel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druckman, Myles; Harber, Philip; Liu, Yihang; Quigley, Robert L

    2014-11-01

    To identify factors affecting the likelihood of requiring medical services during international business trips. Data from more than 800,000 international trips and medical assistance cases provided to 48 multinational corporations in 2009. Travel destination countries were grouped into four a priori risk-related categories. Travel to "low" medical risk countries in aggregate accounted for more hospitalizations and medical evacuations than travel to "high" medical risk countries. Nevertheless, the risk per trip was much higher for travel to higher medical risk countries. Corporations with employees on international travel should allocate sufficient resources to manage and ideally prevent medical issues during business travel. Travel medicine must focus on more than infectious diseases, and programs are necessary for both high- and low-risk regions. Improved understanding of travel-related needs determines resource allocation and risk mitigation efforts.

  13. Treatment-dependent and treatment-independent risk factors associated with the risk of diabetes-related events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wilke, Thomas; Mueller, Sabrina; Groth, Antje

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to analyse which factors predict the real-world macro-/microvascular event, hospitalisation and death risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Furthermore, we aimed to investigate whether there exists both an under- and over-treatment risk...... of these patients. METHODS: We used a German claims/clinical data set covering the years 2010-12. Diabetes-related events were defined as (1) macro-, (2) microvascular events leading to inpatient hospitalisation, (3) other hospitalisations with type 2 diabetes mellitus as main diagnosis, (4) all-cause death and (5......) a composite outcome including all event categories 1-4. Factors associated with event risk were analysed by a Kaplan-Meier curve analysis and by multivariable Cox regression models. RESULTS: 229,042 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (mean age 70.2 years; mean CCI 6.03) were included. Among factors...

  14. Labour Market Flexibility between Risk and Opportunity for Gender Equality Analyses of Self-employment, Part-time Work, and Job Autonomy

    OpenAIRE

    König, Stefanie

    2016-01-01

    The dissertation “Labour Market Flexibility between Risk and Opportunity for Gender Equality – Analyses of Self-employment, Part-time Work, and Job Autonomy” addresses the main research question: Is flexibility the key to a less gendered labour market, or does it rather foster more traditional roles and gender inequality? In four empirical studies, different aspects in life were investigated in order to gain a holistic understanding of gender inequalities related to flexibility at work: the d...

  15. Tenants at-risk-of-poverty induced by housing expenditure – exploratory analyses with EU-SILC

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haffner, M.E.A.; Dol, C.P.; Heylen, K.

    2014-01-01

    Combating poverty and social exclusion is a core policy issue in the European Union (EU). The Statis-tics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) database facilitates analyses of the extent of poverty and social exclusion. One of the indicators built from the database is the at-risk-of-poverty

  16. Dietary supplement use and colorectal cancer risk: A systematic review and meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heine-Bröring, R.C.; Winkels, R.M.; Renkema, J.M.S.; Kragt, L.; Orten-Luiten, van A.C.B.; Tigchelaar, E.F.; Chan, D.S.M.; Norat, T.; Kampman, E.

    2015-01-01

    Use of dietary supplements is rising in countries where colorectal cancer is prevalent. We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies on dietary supplement use and colorectal cancer risk. We identified relevant studies in Medline, Embase and Cochrane up

  17. Data analyses and modelling for risk based monitoring of mycotoxins in animal feed

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ine van der Fels-Klerx, H.J.; Adamse, Paulien; Punt, Ans; Asselt, van Esther D.

    2018-01-01

    Following legislation, European Member States should have multi-annual control programs for contaminants, such as for mycotoxins, in feed and food. These programs need to be risk based implying the checks are regular and proportional to the estimated risk for animal and human health. This study

  18. Econometric analyses of microfinance credit group formation, contractual risks and welfare impacts in Northern Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berhane Tesfay, G.

    2009-01-01

    Key words
    Microfinance, joint liability, contractual risk, group formation, risk-matching, impact evaluation, Panel data econometrics, dynamic panel probit, trend models, fixed-effects, composite counterfactuals, propensity score matching, farm households, Ethiopia.

    Lack of

  19. Analyses to support development of risk-informed separation distances for hydrogen codes and standards.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Houf, William G. (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA); Fluer, Inc., Paso Robels, CA; Fluer, Larry (Fluer, Inc., Paso Robels, CA); Middleton, Bobby

    2009-03-01

    The development of a set of safety codes and standards for hydrogen facilities is necessary to ensure they are designed and operated safely. To help ensure that a hydrogen facility meets an acceptable level of risk, code and standard development organizations are tilizing risk-informed concepts in developing hydrogen codes and standards.

  20. Medicine and ionizing rays: a help sheet in analysing risks in radiotherapy and applicable texts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2007-01-01

    This document proposes a synthesis of useful knowledge for radioprotection in the case of external radiotherapy. In the first part, several aspects are considered: the concerned personnel, the course of treatment procedures, the hazards, the identification of the risk associated with ionizing radiation, the risk assessment and the exposure level determination, the strategy to control the risks (reduction of risks, technical measures concerning the installation or the personnel, teaching and information, prevention and medical monitoring), and risk control assessment. A second part indicates the various applicable legal and regulatory texts (European directives, law and decrees published by public authorities, and texts concerning the general principles in radioprotection, worker protection, specialists, medical devices, nuclear medicine and radiology)

  1. Meta-analyses on behavioral interventions to reduce the risk of transmission of HIV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergidis, Paschalis I; Falagas, Matthew E

    2009-06-01

    Different behavioral interventions have found to be efficacious in reducing high-risk sexual activity. Interventions have been evaluated in both original research and meta-analytic reviews. Most of the studies have shown that interventions are efficacious among different study populations. In adolescents, both in- and out-of-the classroom interventions showed a decrease in the risk of unprotected sex. In African Americans, greater efficacy was found for interventions including peer education. For Latinos, effect was larger in interventions with segmentation in the same gender. Geographic and social isolation are barriers in approaching MSM. For IDUs, interventions provided within a treatment program have an impact on risk reduction above that produced by drug treatment alone. Finally, people diagnosed with HIV tend to reduce their sexual risk behavior. However, adherence to safe sex practices for life can be challenging. Relentless efforts for implementation of behavioral interventions to decrease high-risk behavior are necessary to decrease HIV transmission.

  2. Coastal and river flood risk analyses for guiding economically optimal flood adaptation policies: a country-scale study for Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; van Roomen, Vincent; Connor, Harry; Zavala-Hidalgo, Jorge; Eilander, Dirk M.; Ward, Philip J.

    2018-06-01

    Many countries around the world face increasing impacts from flooding due to socio-economic development in flood-prone areas, which may be enhanced in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change. With increasing flood risk, it is becoming more important to be able to assess the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies. To guide the design of such strategies, policy makers need tools to prioritize where adaptation is needed and how much adaptation funds are required. In this country-scale study, we show how flood risk analyses can be used in cost-benefit analyses to prioritize investments in flood adaptation strategies in Mexico under future climate scenarios. Moreover, given the often limited availability of detailed local data for such analyses, we show how state-of-the-art global data and flood risk assessment models can be applied for a detailed assessment of optimal flood-protection strategies. Our results show that especially states along the Gulf of Mexico have considerable economic benefits from investments in adaptation that limit risks from both river and coastal floods, and that increased flood-protection standards are economically beneficial for many Mexican states. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to modelling uncertainties, the transferability of our modelling approach and policy implications. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  3. A case-control study of risk of leukaemia in relation to mobile phone use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooke, R; Laing, S; Swerdlow, A J

    2010-11-23

    Mobile phone use is now ubiquitous, and scientific reviews have recommended research into its relation to leukaemia risk, but no large studies have been conducted. In a case-control study in South East England to investigate the relation of acute and non-lymphocytic leukaemia risk to mobile phone use, 806 cases with leukaemia incident 2003-2009 at ages 18-59 years (50% of those identified as eligible) and 585 non-blood relatives as controls (provided by 392 cases) were interviewed about mobile phone use and other potentially aetiological variables. No association was found between regular mobile phone use and risk of leukaemia (odds ratio (OR)=1.06, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.76, 1.46). Analyses of risk in relation to years since first use, lifetime years of use, cumulative number of calls and cumulative hours of use produced no significantly raised risks, and there was no evidence of any trends. A non-significantly raised risk was found in people who first used a phone 15 or more years ago (OR=1.87, 95% CI=0.96, 3.63). Separate analyses of analogue and digital phone use and leukaemia subtype produced similar results to those overall. This study suggests that use of mobile phones does not increase leukaemia risk, although the possibility of an effect after long-term use, while biologically unlikely, remains open.

  4. Evaluation of energy related risk acceptance (APHA energy task force)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, A.P.

    1977-01-01

    Living in a technological society with large energy requirements involves a number of related actities with attendant health risks, both to the working and to the general public. Therefore, the formulation of some general principles for risk acceptance is necessary. In addition to maximizing benefits and minimizing risk, relevant considerations must be made about the perception of risk as voluntary or involuntary, the number of persons collectively at risk at any one occasion, and the extent to which a risk is a familiar one. With regard to a given benefit, such as a given amount of energy, comparisons of the risks of alternate modes of production may be utilized. However, cost-benefit consideration is essential to the amelioration of current or prospective risks. This is unusual, since it is based on some estimate of the monetary value per premature death averted. It is proposed that increased longevity would be a more satisfactory measure. On a societal basis, large expenditures for additional energy-related pollution control do not appear justifiable since much larger, nonenergy-related health risks are relatively underaddressed. Knowledgeable health professionals could benefit the public by imparting authoritative information in this area

  5. Application of Markowitz model in analysing risk and return a case study of BSE stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manas Pandey

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the optimal portfolio formation using real life data subject to two different constraint sets is attempted. It is a theoretical framework for the analysis of risk return choices. Decisions are based on the concept of efficient portfolios. Markowitz portfolio analysis gives as output an efficient frontier on which each portfolio is the highest return earning portfolio for a specified level of risk. The investors can reduce their risks and can maximize their return from the investment, The Markowitz portfolio selections were obtained by solving the portfolio optimization problems to get maximum total returns, constrained by minimum allowable risk level. Investors can get lot of information knowledge about how to invest when to invest and why to invest in the particular portfolio. It basically calculates the standard deviation and returns for each of the feasible portfolios and identifies the efficient frontier, the boundary of the feasible portfolios of increasing returns

  6. Varied definitions of risk related to sensation seeking trait

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daastoel, P.Oe.U.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M.

    1999-01-01

    This pilot study is based on the assumption and the knowledge that previous results show that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. The risk definitions the subjects use have also been shown to be related to various educational interests. A related field of research has developed measures for Sensation Seeking personality trait, with four facets. Three independent groups of first year psychology students reported their normal definition of the word risk using one of three measurement formats. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was danger. Subjects who defined risk as the combination of probability and consequences tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale, as compared to those defining risk as the probability of an event

  7. Varied definitions of risk related to sensation seeking trait

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daastoel, P.Oe.U.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M. [Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway). Dept. of Psychology

    1999-12-01

    This pilot study is based on the assumption and the knowledge that previous results show that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. The risk definitions the subjects use have also been shown to be related to various educational interests. A related field of research has developed measures for Sensation Seeking personality trait, with four facets. Three independent groups of first year psychology students reported their normal definition of the word risk using one of three measurement formats. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was danger. Subjects who defined risk as the combination of probability and consequences tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale, as compared to those defining risk as the probability of an event.

  8. Cystatin C and Risk of Diabetes and the Metabolic Syndrome - Biomarker and Genotype Association Analyses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Magnusson

    .478, respectively.We were able to replicate our previously shown association between high levels of cystatin C and increased risk of future development of MetS. However, a causal involvement of cystatin C in the etiology of MetS or diabetes seems unlikely since genetic elevation of plasma cystatin C was not significantly related to incidence of these diseases.

  9. The practical impact of differential item functioning analyses in a health-related quality of life instrument

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scott, Neil W; Fayers, Peter M; Aaronson, Neil K

    2009-01-01

    Differential item functioning (DIF) analyses are commonly used to evaluate health-related quality of life (HRQoL) instruments. There is, however, a lack of consensus as to how to assess the practical impact of statistically significant DIF results.......Differential item functioning (DIF) analyses are commonly used to evaluate health-related quality of life (HRQoL) instruments. There is, however, a lack of consensus as to how to assess the practical impact of statistically significant DIF results....

  10. Perceived risk of prenatal diagnostic procedure-related miscarriage and Down syndrome among pregnant women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caughey, Aaron B; Washington, A Eugene; Kuppermann, Miriam

    2008-03-01

    The objective of the study was to identify correlates of perceived risk of carrying a Down syndrome-affected fetus or experiencing a procedure-related miscarriage among a diverse group of pregnant women. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 1081 English-, Spanish-, or Chinese-speaking women receiving prenatal care in the San Francisco Bay area. Perceived risk of procedure-related miscarriage or carrying a Down syndrome-affected fetus was assessed using a linear rating scale from 0 (no risk) to 1 (high risk). Bivariate and multivariable analyses were used to explore associations between maternal characteristics including age, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status and perceived risks of carrying a Down syndrome-affected fetus or experiencing a procedure-related miscarriage. Women aged 35 years old or older had a higher perceived risk of Down syndrome than younger women (0.28 vs 0.22 on a scale from 0 to 1, P self-perceived health status (+0.08, P = .045). Latinas (+0.11, P = .008), women with an annual income less than $35,000 (+0.09, P = .003), and those who had difficulty conceiving (+0.09, P = .026) had higher perceived procedure-related miscarriage risk. Among women aged 35 years or older, perceived risk of carrying a Down syndrome-affected fetus was associated with the inclination to undergo prenatal diagnosis. Women's perceived risks of carrying a Down syndrome-affected fetus or having a procedure-related miscarriage are associated with numerous characteristics that have not been shown to be associated with the actual risks of these events. These perceived risks are associated with prenatal diagnostic test inclination. Understanding patients' risk perceptions and effectively communicating risk is critical to helping patients make informed decisions regarding use of invasive prenatal testing.

  11. Effects of trust and governance on relational risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nooteboom, B.; Berger, J.; Noorderhaven, N.G.

    In transaction cost economics, foist has been treated as redundant or even misleading. This study tested the effects of governance and trust the risk perceived by agents of firms in alliances. Two dimensions of relational risk were assessed: the probability that something will go wrong and the size

  12. Beyond the contract: managing risk in supply chain relations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, H.C.; Sakaguchi, J.; Kawai, T.

    2013-01-01

    As a consequence of the development of intensified relations with suppliers, for many firms the supply chain has become a significant source of risk exposure. In this paper we examine firms' use of control practices to manage risks associated with intensified collaboration with supply chain

  13. Medicine and ionizing rays: a help sheet in analysing risks in nuclear medicine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2006-01-01

    This document first proposes the various applicable legal and regulatory texts concerning radioprotection in the medical sector (European directives, institutions in charge of radioprotection, general arrangements, regulatory texts concerning worker protection against ionizing radiations, personnel specialized in medical radio-physics, electro-radiology operators, quality control of medical devices, and nuclear medicine and radiology). The second part proposes a synthesis of useful knowledge for radioprotection in the case of nuclear medicine when performing in vivo diagnosis, positron emission tomography or PET being excluded. Several aspects are considered: the concerned personnel, the course of treatment procedures, the hazards, the identification of the risk associated with ionizing radiation, the risk assessment and the determination of exposure levels, the strategy to control the risks (reduction of risks, technical measures concerning the installation or the personnel, teaching and information, prevention and medical monitoring), and risk control assessment. The next parts present the same kind of information but for positron emission tomography or PET with Fluorine 18, for therapeutic practice without hospitalization (activity of iodine 137 less than 740 MBq), for therapeutic practice in case of hospitalization (iodine 137 activity greater than 740 MBq), and when taking patients into care after treatment in a nuclear medicine (in this last case, legal and regulatory information focus on patients)

  14. Analysing the effect of multiple sclerosis on vitamin D related biochemical markers of bone remodelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, Malachi J; Murray, Barbara; Lonergan, Roisin; Segurado, Ricardo; Tubridy, Niall; Kilbane, Mark T

    2018-03-01

    The Irish population is at risk of vitamin D deficiency during the winter months, but the secular trend over the past 40 years is for marked improvement. Multiple sclerosis (MS) is common in Ireland with a latitudinal pattern favouring highest incidence in northern regions; MS is linked strongly with vitamin D status as a causal factor. We sought firstly to study the relationship between vitamin D status and vitamin D-related bone biochemistry, and secondly to evaluate if MS had an independent effect on vitamin D related markers of bone remodelling. Using a case-control design of 165 pairs (MS patient and matched control) residing in three different geographic regions during winter months, we measured serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD), parathyroid hormone (PTH), C-terminal telopeptide of type I collagen (CTX) and total procollagen type I amino-terminal propeptide (PINP). Given the paired case-control design, associations were explored using mixed-effects linear regression analysis with the patient-control pair as a random effect and after log transformation of 25OHD. A two-way interaction effect was tested for vitamin D status (25OHD <30nmol/L) and the presence of MS on PTH, CTX, and PINP. In the total group, just over one-third (34.5%) had 25OHD <30nmol/L. PTH was elevated in 7.6%. CTX was not elevated in any case, and PINP was elevated in 4.5%. On mixed-effects linear regression analysis after adjusting for confounders (age, sex, renal function, and serum albumin), we demonstrated the principal determinant of 25OHD was geographical location (p<0.001), of PTH was 25OHD (p<0.001), of CTX was PTH (p<0.001), and of PINP was PTH (p<0.001). MS did not have an independent effect on PTH (p=0.921), CTX (p=0.912), or PINP (p=0.495). As regards an interaction effect, the presence of MS and 25OHD <30nmol/L was not significant but tended towards having lower PTH (p=0.207). In conclusion, in Ireland in winter only a minority had any abnormality in the secondary indices of

  15. Relative and absolute risk models for cancer mortality in ankylosing spondylitis patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muirhead, C.R.; Darby, S.C.

    1989-01-01

    The updated analyses presented in this paper have indicated that, even after allowing for the effects of other variables, the relative risk of all cancers excluding leukaemia and colon cancer among the irradiated spondylitics tails off beyond twenty-five years following exposure. Additionally, the corresponding absolute excess risk also tails off. This is still the only major study to show a wearing off of the radiation-related risk for such a grouping of cancers (although some wearing off has been seen for individual cancers such as bone in other studies). Further analysis of the spondylitic data (Darby, Doll and Smith, 1988) has not found any artificial explanation for the tailing off in risk, such as changes in lifestyle. However, it is noticeable that the dose was delivered to the spondylitics in fractions (see Lewis et al., 1988, table IV) rather than instantaneously, although it is not immediately obvious why this should have affected the temporal pattern of the risk. (author)

  16. Genome-wide diet-gene interaction analyses for risk of colorectal cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane C Figueiredo

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Dietary factors, including meat, fruits, vegetables and fiber, are associated with colorectal cancer; however, there is limited information as to whether these dietary factors interact with genetic variants to modify risk of colorectal cancer. We tested interactions between these dietary factors and approximately 2.7 million genetic variants for colorectal cancer risk among 9,287 cases and 9,117 controls from ten studies. We used logistic regression to investigate multiplicative gene-diet interactions, as well as our recently developed Cocktail method that involves a screening step based on marginal associations and gene-diet correlations and a testing step for multiplicative interactions, while correcting for multiple testing using weighted hypothesis testing. Per quartile increment in the intake of red and processed meat were associated with statistically significant increased risks of colorectal cancer and vegetable, fruit and fiber intake with lower risks. From the case-control analysis, we detected a significant interaction between rs4143094 (10p14/near GATA3 and processed meat consumption (OR = 1.17; p = 8.7E-09, which was consistently observed across studies (p heterogeneity = 0.78. The risk of colorectal cancer associated with processed meat was increased among individuals with the rs4143094-TG and -TT genotypes (OR = 1.20 and OR = 1.39, respectively and null among those with the GG genotype (OR = 1.03. Our results identify a novel gene-diet interaction with processed meat for colorectal cancer, highlighting that diet may modify the effect of genetic variants on disease risk, which may have important implications for prevention.

  17. Risk and safety analyses for disposal of alpha-contaminated waste in INEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, T.

    1982-01-01

    The author first discusses the context, objectives, and scope of the risk analysis. Then he gives some background on the waste and how its managed, including the alternatives for long-term management. These are followed by risk evaluation approach, results, and 7 conclusions and problems. One of his conclusions is that a 100 nCi/g limit would provide adequate safety margins. Raising the limit to 100 nCi/g would allow about 20% of the stored waste to be diverted to near-surface disposal. He added that analyzing waste packages at 10 nCi/g is not now practical. 21 figures

  18. Estimating internal exposure risks by the relative risk and the National Institute of Health risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehta, S.K.; Sarangapani, R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents tabulations of risk (R) and person-years of life lost (PYLL) for acute exposures of individual organs at ages 20 and 40 yrs for the Indian and Japanese populations to illustrate the effect of age at exposure in the two models. Results are also presented for the organ wise nominal probability coefficients (NPC) and PYLL for individual organs for the age distributed Indian population by the two models. The results presented show that for all organs the estimates of PYLL and NPC for the Indian population are lower than those for the Japanese population by both models except for oesophagus, breast and ovary by the relative risk (RR) model, where the opposite trend is observed. The results also show that the Indian all-cancer values of NPC averaged over the two models is 2.9 x 10 -2 Sv -1 , significantly lower than the world average value of 5x10 -2 Sv -1 estimated by the ICRP. (author). 9 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  19. Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Ping

    2005-01-01

    from various Danish longitudinal registers. Data were analysed with conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: This study confirms that people living in more urbanized areas are at a higher risk of suicide than their counterparts in less urbanized areas. However, this excess risk is largely eliminated...... when adjusted for personal marital, income, and ethnic differences; it is even reversed when further adjusted for psychiatric status. Moreover, the impact of urbanicity on suicide risk differs significantly by sex and across age. Urban living reduces suicide risk significantly among men, especially......BACKGROUND: The extent to which the high suicide rate in urban areas is influenced by exposures to risk factors for suicide other than urbanicity remains unknown. This population-based study aims to investigate suicide risk in relation to the level of urbanicity in the context of other factors...

  20. Dose-related beneficial and harmful effects of gabapentin in postoperative pain management – post hoc analyses from a systematic review with meta-analyses and trial sequential analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabritius ML

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Maria Louise Fabritius,1 Jørn Wetterslev,2 Ole Mathiesen,3 Jørgen B Dahl1 1Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, Bispebjerg and Frederiksberg Hospitals, Copenhagen, Denmark; 2Copenhagen Trial Unit, Centre for Clinical Intervention Research, Copenhagen University Hospital, Copenhagen, Denmark; 3Department of Anaesthesiology, Zealand University Hospital, Køge, Denmark Background: During the last 15 years, gabapentin has become an established component of postoperative pain treatment. Gabapentin has been employed in a wide range of doses, but little is known about the optimal dose, providing the best balance between benefit and harm. This systematic review with meta-analyses aimed to explore the beneficial and harmful effects of various doses of gabapentin administered to surgical patients.Materials and methods: Data in this paper were derived from an original review, and the subgroup analyses were predefined in an International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews published protocol: PROSPERO (ID: CRD42013006538. The methods followed Cochrane guidelines. The Cochrane Library’s CENTRAL, PubMed, EMBASE, Science Citation Index Expanded, Google Scholar, and FDA database were searched for relevant trials. Randomized clinical trials comparing gabapentin versus placebo were included. Four different dose intervals were investigated: 0–350, 351–700, 701–1050, and >1050 mg. Primary co-outcomes were 24-hour morphine consumption and serious adverse events (SAEs, with emphasis put on trials with low risk of bias. Results: One hundred and twenty-two randomized clinical trials, with 8466 patients, were included. Sixteen were overall low risk of bias. No consistent increase in morphine-sparing effect was observed with increasing doses of gabapentin from the trials with low risk of bias. Analyzing all trials, the smallest and the highest dose subgroups demonstrated numerically the most prominent reduction in morphine consumption

  1. A systematic review of meta-analyses on gene polymorphisms and gastric cancer risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F. Gianfagna (Francesco); E. de Feo (Emma); C.M. van Duijn (Cornelia); G. Ricciardi (Gualtiero); S. Boccia (Stefania)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Individual variations in gastric cancer risk have been associated in the last decade with specific variant alleles of different genes that are present in a significant proportion of the population. Polymorphisms may modify the effects of environmental exposures, and these

  2. Handbook of methods for risk-based analyses of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Mankamo, T.; Vesely, W.E.

    1994-12-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while a few may not be conducive to safety. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research has sponsored research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. This handbook summarizes these risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), scheduled or preventive maintenance, action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), and management of plant configurations resulting from outages of systems, or components. For each topic, the handbook summarizes analytic methods with data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and gives examples of evaluations

  3. Assumptions in quantitative analyses of health risks of overhead power lines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, A.; Wardekker, J.A.; van der Sluijs, J.P.

    2012-01-01

    One of the major issues hampering the formulation of uncontested policy decisions on contemporary risks is the presence of uncertainties in various stages of the policy cycle. In literature, different lines are suggested to address the problem of provisional and uncertain evidence. Reflective

  4. Handbook of methods for risk-based analyses of technical specifications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Mankamo, T. [Avaplan Oy, Espoo (Finland); Vesely, W.E. [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States)

    1994-12-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while a few may not be conducive to safety. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research has sponsored research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. This handbook summarizes these risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), scheduled or preventive maintenance, action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), and management of plant configurations resulting from outages of systems, or components. For each topic, the handbook summarizes analytic methods with data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and gives examples of evaluations.

  5. Climate analyses to assess risks from invasive forest insects: Simple matching to advanced models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert C. Venette

    2017-01-01

    Purpose of Review. The number of invasive alien insects that adversely affect trees and forests continues to increase as do associated ecological, economic, and sociological impacts. Prevention strategies remain the most cost-effective approach to address the issue, but risk management decisions, particularly those affecting international trade,...

  6. Analysing Production Technology and Risk in Organic and Conventional Dutch Arable Farming using Panel Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gardebroek, C.; Chavez Clemente, M.D.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Abstract This paper compares the production technology and production risk of organic and conventional arable farms in the Netherlands. Just–Pope production functions that explicitly account for output variability are estimated using panel data of Dutch organic and conventional farms. Prior

  7. Climate risk assessment in museums : degradation risks determined from temperature and relative humidity data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martens, M.H.J.

    2012-01-01

    The main subject of this thesis is the determination of climate risks to objects in museums on the basis of measured and/or simulated temperature and relative humidity data. The focus is on the quantification of climate related risks for the preservation quality of indoor climate in Dutch museums.

  8. Environmental risk factors of pregnancy outcomes: a summary of recent meta-analyses of epidemiological studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Dadvand, Payam; Grellier, James; Martinez, David; Vrijheid, Martine

    2013-01-15

    Various epidemiological studies have suggested associations between environmental exposures and pregnancy outcomes. Some studies have tempted to combine information from various epidemiological studies using meta-analysis. We aimed to describe the methodologies used in these recent meta-analyses of environmental exposures and pregnancy outcomes. Furthermore, we aimed to report their main findings. We conducted a bibliographic search with relevant search terms. We obtained and evaluated 16 recent meta-analyses. The number of studies included in each reported meta-analysis varied greatly, with the largest number of studies available for environmental tobacco smoke. Only a small number of the studies reported having followed meta-analysis guidelines or having used a quality rating system. Generally they tested for heterogeneity and publication bias. Publication bias did not occur frequently.The meta-analyses found statistically significant negative associations between environmental tobacco smoke and stillbirth, birth weight and any congenital anomalies; PM2.5 and preterm birth; outdoor air pollution and some congenital anomalies; indoor air pollution from solid fuel use and stillbirth and birth weight; polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) exposure and birth weight; disinfection by-products in water and stillbirth, small for gestational age and some congenital anomalies; occupational exposure to pesticides and solvents and some congenital anomalies; and agent orange and some congenital anomalies. The number of meta-analyses of environmental exposures and pregnancy outcomes is small and they vary in methodology. They reported statistically significant associations between environmental exposures such as environmental tobacco smoke, air pollution and chemicals and pregnancy outcomes.

  9. Environmental risk factors of pregnancy outcomes: a summary of recent meta-analyses of epidemiological studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nieuwenhuijsen Mark J

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Various epidemiological studies have suggested associations between environmental exposures and pregnancy outcomes. Some studies have tempted to combine information from various epidemiological studies using meta-analysis. We aimed to describe the methodologies used in these recent meta-analyses of environmental exposures and pregnancy outcomes. Furthermore, we aimed to report their main findings. Methods We conducted a bibliographic search with relevant search terms. We obtained and evaluated 16 recent meta-analyses. Results The number of studies included in each reported meta-analysis varied greatly, with the largest number of studies available for environmental tobacco smoke. Only a small number of the studies reported having followed meta-analysis guidelines or having used a quality rating system. Generally they tested for heterogeneity and publication bias. Publication bias did not occur frequently. The meta-analyses found statistically significant negative associations between environmental tobacco smoke and stillbirth, birth weight and any congenital anomalies; PM2.5 and preterm birth; outdoor air pollution and some congenital anomalies; indoor air pollution from solid fuel use and stillbirth and birth weight; polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB exposure and birth weight; disinfection by-products in water and stillbirth, small for gestational age and some congenital anomalies; occupational exposure to pesticides and solvents and some congenital anomalies; and agent orange and some congenital anomalies. Conclusions The number of meta-analyses of environmental exposures and pregnancy outcomes is small and they vary in methodology. They reported statistically significant associations between environmental exposures such as environmental tobacco smoke, air pollution and chemicals and pregnancy outcomes.

  10. C-reactive protein as a risk factor for coronary heart disease: a systematic review and meta-analyses for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, David I; Fu, Rongwei; Freeman, Michele; Rogers, Kevin; Helfand, Mark

    2009-10-06

    C-reactive protein (CRP) may help to refine global risk assessment for coronary heart disease (CHD), particularly among persons who are at intermediate risk on the basis of traditional risk factors alone. To assist the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) in determining whether CRP should be incorporated into guidelines for CHD risk assessment. MEDLINE search of English-language articles (1966 to November 2007), supplemented by reference lists of reviews, pertinent studies, editorials, and Web sites and by expert suggestions. Prospective cohort, case-cohort, and nested case-control studies relevant to the independent predictive ability of CRP when used in intermediate-risk persons. Included studies were reviewed according to predefined criteria, and the quality of each study was rated. The validity of the body of evidence and the net benefit or harm of using CRP for CHD risk assessment were evaluated. The combined magnitude of effect was determined by meta-analysis. The body of evidence is of good quality, consistency, and applicability. For good studies that adjusted for all Framingham risk variables, the summary estimate of relative risk for incident CHD was 1.58 (95% CI, 1.37 to 1.83) for CRP levels greater than 3.0 mg/L compared with levels less than 1.0 mg/L. Analyses from 4 large cohorts were consistent in finding evidence that including CRP improves risk stratification among initially intermediate-risk persons. C-reactive protein has desirable test characteristics, and good data exist on the prevalence of elevated CRP levels in intermediate-risk persons. Limited evidence links changes in CRP level to primary prevention of CHD events. Study methods for measuring Framingham risk variables and other covariates varied. Ethnic and racial minority populations were poorly represented in most studies, limiting generalizability. Few studies directly assessed the effect of CRP on risk reclassification in intermediate-risk persons. Strong evidence indicates

  11. Risk communication related to animal products derived from biotechnology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCrea, D

    2005-04-01

    Previous chapters of this review have dealt with the key considerations related to the application of biotechnology in veterinary science and animal production. This article explores the theory and practice of risk communication and sets out the basic principles for good risk communication when dealing with new technologies, uncertainty, and cautious and sceptical consumers. After failure to communicate with consumers and stakeholders about the risk to human health from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the 1990s, Government Agencies in the United Kingdom have made significant improvements in risk communication. The official inquiry that followed the BSE crisis concluded that a policy of openness was the correct approach, and this article emphasises the importance of consultation, consistency and transparency. There are, however, many different factors that affect public perception of risk (religious, political, social, cultural, etc.) and developing effective risk communication strategies must take all of these complex issues into consideration.

  12. Variations with time and age in the relative risks of solid cancer incidence after radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R.; de Vathaire, F.; Charles, M.W.

    1997-01-01

    The Japanese atomic bomb survivor cancer incidence dataset and data on five groups exposed to radiation for medical reasons in childhood are analysed and evidence found for a reduction in the radiation-induced relative risk of cancers other than leukaemia with increasing time since exposure and age at exposure. The rate of the reductions in relative risk with time since exposure are not significantly different for those exposed in childhood and for those exposed in adulthood, if adjustment is made for the effects on the relative risk of age at exposure. For those irradiated in childhood, there is a statistically significant annual reduction of 5.8% (95% Cl 2.8, 8.9) in excess relative risk, and there are no strong indications of inter-cohort heterogeniety in the speed of reduction of relative risk. After adjustment for the effects of age at exposure, there is a significant annual reduction of 3.6% (95% Cl 1.6, 5.6) in excess relative risk in all age-at-exposure groups. There are significant reductions of 5.2% (95% Cl 3.7, 6.8) in excess relative risk per year of age at exposure. There are statistically significant (P = 0.04) interactions between the exponential adjustments to the excess relative risk for age at exposure and time since exposure in the Japanese data, but no indications (P = 0.38) of such interactions when powers of time since exposure and attained age are used to adjust the excess relative risk, so that the fit of the model with power adjustments is to be preferred to that of the model with exponential adjustments. (author)

  13. Contour plot assessment of existing meta-analyses confirms robust association of statin use and acute kidney injury risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevance, Aurélie; Schuster, Tibor; Steele, Russell; Ternès, Nils; Platt, Robert W

    2015-10-01

    Robustness of an existing meta-analysis can justify decisions on whether to conduct an additional study addressing the same research question. We illustrate the graphical assessment of the potential impact of an additional study on an existing meta-analysis using published data on statin use and the risk of acute kidney injury. A previously proposed graphical augmentation approach is used to assess the sensitivity of the current test and heterogeneity statistics extracted from existing meta-analysis data. In addition, we extended the graphical augmentation approach to assess potential changes in the pooled effect estimate after updating a current meta-analysis and applied the three graphical contour definitions to data from meta-analyses on statin use and acute kidney injury risk. In the considered example data, the pooled effect estimates and heterogeneity indices demonstrated to be considerably robust to the addition of a future study. Supportingly, for some previously inconclusive meta-analyses, a study update might yield statistically significant kidney injury risk increase associated with higher statin exposure. The illustrated contour approach should become a standard tool for the assessment of the robustness of meta-analyses. It can guide decisions on whether to conduct additional studies addressing a relevant research question. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Process of Integrating Screening and Detailed Risk-based Modeling Analyses to Ensure Consistent and Scientifically Defensible Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buck, John W.; McDonald, John P.; Taira, Randal Y.

    2002-01-01

    To support cleanup and closure of these tanks, modeling is performed to understand and predict potential impacts to human health and the environment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a screening tool for the United States Department of Energy, Office of River Protection that estimates the long-term human health risk, from a strategic planning perspective, posed by potential tank releases to the environment. This tool is being conditioned to more detailed model analyses to ensure consistency between studies and to provide scientific defensibility. Once the conditioning is complete, the system will be used to screen alternative cleanup and closure strategies. The integration of screening and detailed models provides consistent analyses, efficiencies in resources, and positive feedback between the various modeling groups. This approach of conditioning a screening methodology to more detailed analyses provides decision-makers with timely and defensible information and increases confidence in the results on the part of clients, regulators, and stakeholders

  15. Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

    1988-03-01

    This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

  16. Does mitigation save? Reviewing cost-benefit analyses of disaster risk reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Shreve, Cheney M.; Kelman, Ilan

    2014-01-01

    The benefit-cost-ratio (BCR), used in cost-benefit analysis (CBA), is an indicator that attempts to summarize the overall value for money of a project. Disaster costs continue to rise and the demand has increased to demonstrate the economic benefit of disaster risk reduction (DRR) to policy makers. This study compiles and compares original CBA case studies reporting DRR BCRs, without restrictions as to hazard type, location, scale, or other parameters. Many results were identified supporting ...

  17. Negotiation Decision Support Systems: Analysing Negotiations under the Conditions of Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Nipun Agarwal

    2014-01-01

    Negotiation Theory is a research area with emphasis from three different research streams being game theory, psychology and negotiation analysis. Recently, negotiation theory research has moved towards the combination of game theory and psychology negotiation theory models that could be called Integrated Negotiation Theory (INT). As, negotiations are often impacted by external factors, there is risk associated with achieving the expected outcomes. Prospect theory and Negotiation theory are co...

  18. Boxing and mixed martial arts: preliminary traumatic neuromechanical injury risk analyses from laboratory impact dosage data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartsch, Adam J; Benzel, Edward C; Miele, Vincent J; Morr, Douglas R; Prakash, Vikas

    2012-05-01

    In spite of ample literature pointing to rotational and combined impact dosage being key contributors to head and neck injury, boxing and mixed martial arts (MMA) padding is still designed to primarily reduce cranium linear acceleration. The objects of this study were to quantify preliminary linear and rotational head impact dosage for selected boxing and MMA padding in response to hook punches; compute theoretical skull, brain, and neck injury risk metrics; and statistically compare the protective effect of various glove and head padding conditions. An instrumented Hybrid III 50th percentile anthropomorphic test device (ATD) was struck in 54 pendulum impacts replicating hook punches at low (27-29 J) and high (54-58 J) energy. Five padding combinations were examined: unpadded (control), MMA glove-unpadded head, boxing glove-unpadded head, unpadded pendulum-boxing headgear, and boxing glove-boxing headgear. A total of 17 injury risk parameters were measured or calculated. All padding conditions reduced linear impact dosage. Other parameters significantly decreased, significantly increased, or were unaffected depending on padding condition. Of real-world conditions (MMA glove-bare head, boxing glove-bare head, and boxing glove-headgear), the boxing glove-headgear condition showed the most meaningful reduction in most of the parameters. In equivalent impacts, the MMA glove-bare head condition induced higher rotational dosage than the boxing glove-bare head condition. Finite element analysis indicated a risk of brain strain injury in spite of significant reduction of linear impact dosage. In the replicated hook punch impacts, all padding conditions reduced linear but not rotational impact dosage. Head and neck dosage theoretically accumulates fastest in MMA and boxing bouts without use of protective headgear. The boxing glove-headgear condition provided the best overall reduction in impact dosage. More work is needed to develop improved protective padding to minimize

  19. Data Analyses and Modelling for Risk Based Monitoring of Mycotoxins in Animal Feed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.J. (Ine van der Fels-Klerx

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Following legislation, European Member States should have multi-annual control programs for contaminants, such as for mycotoxins, in feed and food. These programs need to be risk based implying the checks are regular and proportional to the estimated risk for animal and human health. This study aimed to prioritize feed products in the Netherlands for deoxynivalenol and aflatoxin B1 monitoring. Historical mycotoxin monitoring results from the period 2007–2016 were combined with data from other sources. Based on occurrence, groundnuts had high priority for aflatoxin B1 monitoring; some feed materials (maize and maize products and several oil seed products and complete/complementary feed excluding dairy cattle and young animals had medium priority; and all other animal feeds and feed materials had low priority. For deoxynivalenol, maize by-products had a high priority, complete and complementary feed for pigs had a medium priority and all other feed and feed materials a low priority. Also including health consequence estimations showed that feed materials that ranked highest for aflatoxin B1 included sunflower seed and palmkernel expeller/extracts and maize. For deoxynivalenol, maize products were ranked highest, followed by various small grain cereals (products; all other feed materials were of lower concern. Results of this study have proven to be useful in setting up the annual risk based control program for mycotoxins in animal feed and feed materials.

  20. Dangerous dads? Ecological and longitudinal analyses of paternity leave and risk for child injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laflamme, Lucie; Månsdotter, Anna; Lundberg, Michael; Magnusson, Cecilia

    2012-11-01

    In 1974, Sweden became the first country to permit fathers to take paid parental leave. Other countries are currently following suit issuing similar laws. While this reform supports the principles of the United Nations convention of the right for children to be with both parents and enshrines the ethos of gender equality, there has been little systematic examination of its potential impact on child health. Instead, there is uninformed debate that fathers may expose their children to greater risks of injury than mothers. In this Swedish national study, the authors therefore assess whether fathers' parental leave can be regarded as a more serious risk factor for child injuries than that of mothers. Nationwide register-based ecological and longitudinal studies of hospitalisation due to injury (and intoxication) in early childhood, involving the Swedish population in 1973-2009 (ecological design), and children born in 1988 and 1989 (n=118 278) (longitudinal design). An increase in fathers' share of parental leave over time was parallelled by a downward trend in child injury rates (age 0-4 years). At the individual level, the crude incidence of child injury (age 0-2 years) was lower during paternity as compared with maternity leave. This association was, however, explained by parental socio-demographic characteristics (multivariate HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.2). There is no support for the notion that paternity leave increases the risk of child injury.

  1. Radon progeny exposure and lung cancer risk: Analyses of a cohort of Newfoundland fluorspar miners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, H.I.; Villeneuve, P.J.

    1995-07-01

    A cohort study of the mortality experience (1950-1990) of 1744 underground miners and 321 millers or surface workers has been conducted. Excess mortality among underground miners was noted for cancers of the lung, buccal cavity, pharynx and mouth, urinary tract and for silicosis and pneumoconioses. A highly statistically significant relationship was noted between radon daughter exposure and risk of dying of lung cancer; the small numbers of buccal cavity/pharynx cancers (n = 6) precluded meaningful analysis of exposure-response. No statistically significant excess was found for any cause of death among surface workers. The exposure-response data for lung cancer were fitted to various mathematical models. The model selected included terms for attained age, cumulative dose, dose rate and time since last exposure. Because risk varies according to each of these factors, a single summary risk estimate was felt to be misleading. The joint effects of radon and smoking could not be adequately assessed using this cohort. (author). 46 refs., 16 tabs., 1 fig

  2. Data Analyses and Modelling for Risk Based Monitoring of Mycotoxins in Animal Feed

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H.J. (Ine); Adamse, Paulien; Punt, Ans; van Asselt, Esther D.

    2018-01-01

    Following legislation, European Member States should have multi-annual control programs for contaminants, such as for mycotoxins, in feed and food. These programs need to be risk based implying the checks are regular and proportional to the estimated risk for animal and human health. This study aimed to prioritize feed products in the Netherlands for deoxynivalenol and aflatoxin B1 monitoring. Historical mycotoxin monitoring results from the period 2007–2016 were combined with data from other sources. Based on occurrence, groundnuts had high priority for aflatoxin B1 monitoring; some feed materials (maize and maize products and several oil seed products) and complete/complementary feed excluding dairy cattle and young animals had medium priority; and all other animal feeds and feed materials had low priority. For deoxynivalenol, maize by-products had a high priority, complete and complementary feed for pigs had a medium priority and all other feed and feed materials a low priority. Also including health consequence estimations showed that feed materials that ranked highest for aflatoxin B1 included sunflower seed and palmkernel expeller/extracts and maize. For deoxynivalenol, maize products were ranked highest, followed by various small grain cereals (products); all other feed materials were of lower concern. Results of this study have proven to be useful in setting up the annual risk based control program for mycotoxins in animal feed and feed materials. PMID:29373559

  3. Risk and Performance Analyses Supporting Closure of WMA C at the Hanford Site in Southeast Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eberlein, Susan J.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Kemp, Christopher J.; Hildebrand, R. Douglas; Aly, Alaa; Kozak, Matthew; Mehta, Sunil; Connelly, Michael

    2013-01-01

    The Office of River Protection under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is pursuing closure of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Waste Management Area (WMA) C as stipulated by the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (HFFACO) under federal requirements and work tasks will be done under the State-approved closure plans and permits. An initial step in meeting the regulatory requirements is to develop a baseline risk assessment representing current conditions based on available characterization data and information collected at the WMA C location. The baseline risk assessment will be supporting a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) Field Investigation (RFI)/Corrective Measures Study (CMS) for WMA closure and RCRA corrective action. Complying with the HFFACO conditions also involves developing a long-term closure Performance Assessment (PA) that evaluates human health and environmental impacts resulting from radionuclide inventories in residual wastes remaining in WMA C tanks and ancillary equipment. This PA is being developed to meet the requirements necessary for closure authorization under DOE Order 435.1 and Washington State Hazardous Waste Management Act. To meet the HFFACO conditions, the long-term closure risk analysis will include an evaluation of human health and environmental impacts from hazardous chemical inventories along with other performance Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act Appropriate and Applicable Requirements (CERCLA ARARs) in residual wastes left in WMA C facilities after retrieval and removal. This closure risk analysis is needed to needed to comply with the requirements for permitted closure. Progress to date in developing a baseline risk assessment of WMA C has involved aspects of an evaluation of soil characterization and groundwater monitoring data collected as a part of the RFI/CMS and RCRA monitoring. Developing the long-term performance assessment aspects has involved the

  4. Risk and Performance Analyses Supporting Closure of WMA C at the Hanford Site in Southeast Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eberlein, Susan J.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Kemp, Christopher J.

    2013-11-11

    The Office of River Protection under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is pursuing closure of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Waste Management Area (WMA) C as stipulated by the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (HFFACO) under federal requirements and work tasks will be done under the State-approved closure plans and permits. An initial step in meeting the regulatory requirements is to develop a baseline risk assessment representing current conditions based on available characterization data and information collected at the WMA C location. The baseline risk assessment will be supporting a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) Field Investigation (RFI)/Corrective Measures Study (CMS) for WMA closure and RCRA corrective action. Complying with the HFFACO conditions also involves developing a long-term closure Performance Assessment (PA) that evaluates human health and environmental impacts resulting from radionuclide inventories in residual wastes remaining in WMA C tanks and ancillary equipment. This PA is being developed to meet the requirements necessary for closure authorization under DOE Order 435.1 and Washington State Hazardous Waste Management Act. To meet the HFFACO conditions, the long-term closure risk analysis will include an evaluation of human health and environmental impacts from hazardous chemical inventories along with other performance Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act Appropriate and Applicable Requirements (CERCLA ARARs) in residual wastes left in WMA C facilities after retrieval and removal. This closure risk analysis is needed to needed to comply with the requirements for permitted closure. Progress to date in developing a baseline risk assessment of WMA C has involved aspects of an evaluation of soil characterization and groundwater monitoring data collected as a part of the RFI/CMS and RCRA monitoring. Developing the long-term performance assessment aspects has involved the

  5. Sexual HIV Risk Among Male Parolees and Their Female Partners: The Relate Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comfort, Megan; Reznick, Olga Grinstead; Dilworth, Samantha E; Binson, Diane; Darbes, Lynae A; Neilands, Torsten B

    The massively disproportionate impact of America's prison boom on communities of color has raised questions about how incarceration may affect health disparities, including disparities in HIV. Primary partners are an important source of influence on sexual health. In this paper, we investigate sexual HIV risk among male-female couples following a man's release from prison. We draw upon data from the Relate Project, a novel cross-sectional survey of recently released men and their female partners in Oakland and San Francisco, California (N=344). Inferential analyses use the actor-partner model to explore actor and partner effects on sexual HIV risk outcomes. Dyadic analyses of sexual HIV risk among male parolees and their female partners paint a complex portrait of couples affected by incarceration and of partners' influences on each other. Findings indicate that demographic factors such as education level and employment status, individual psycho-social factors such as perception of risk, and relationship factors such as commitment and power affect sexual HIV risk outcomes. The Relate Project provides a novel dataset for the dyadic analysis of sexual risk among male parolees and their female partners, and results highlight the importance of focusing on the couple as a unit when assessing HIV risk and protective behaviors. Results also indicate potentially fruitful avenues for population-specific interventions that may help to reduce sexual health disparities among couples affected by incarceration.

  6. Alcohol-Related Problems And High Risk Sexual Behaviour In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There was a significant association between alcohol-related problems and risky sexual behavior. Alcohol-related problems are fairly common in people already infected with HIV/AIDS and are associated with high-risk sexual behavior. Thus, screening and treatment should be part of an effective HIV intervention program.

  7. Risk of cancer in relatives of patients with myotonic dystrophy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, M; Diaz, L J; Gørtz, S

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Myotonic dystrophies (DM) are autosomal dominantly inherited neuromuscular disorders caused by unstable nucleotide repeat expansions. DM and cancer have been associated, but the pathogenesis behind the association remains unclear. It could relate to derived effects of the DM...... genotype in which case non-DM relatives of DM patients would not be expected to be at increased risk of cancer. To elucidate this, a population-based cohort study investigating risk of cancer in relatives of DM patients was conducted. METHODS: DM was identified using the National Danish Patient Registry...

  8. Urbanization and traffic related exposures as risk factors for Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Mortensen, Preben Bo

    2006-01-01

    to nearest major road had no significant effect. CONCLUSIONS: The cause(s) or exposure(s) responsible for the urban-rural differences in schizophrenia risk were closer related to the degree of urbanization than to the geographical distance to nearest major road. Traffic related exposures might thus be less......BACKGROUND: Urban birth or upbringing increase schizophrenia risk. Though unknown, the causes of these urban-rural differences have been hypothesized to include, e.g., infections, diet, toxic exposures, social class, or an artefact due to selective migration. METHODS: We investigated the hypothesis...... that traffic related exposures affect schizophrenia risk and that this potential effect is responsible for the urban-rural differences. The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road was used as a proxy variable for traffic related exposures. We used a large population-based sample...

  9. Cancer risk of anti-TNF-α at recommended doses in adult rheumatoid arthritis: a meta-analysis with intention to treat and per protocol analyses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Moulis

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The risk of malignancies on TNF-α antagonists is controversial. The aim of this survey was to assess cancer risk on TNF-α antagonists in adult rheumatoid arthritis patients, including the five marketed drugs (infliximab, etanercept, adalimumab, golimumab and certolizumab used in line with the New Drug Application. Furthermore, the relative interest of modified intention to treat or per protocol analyses to assess such sparse events remains unknown. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data sources were MEDLINE, CENTRAL, ISI Web of Science, ACR and EULAR meeting abstracts, scientific evaluation of the drugs leading to their marketing approval, and clinicaltrials.gov, until 31 December 2012.We selected double-blind randomized controlled trials in adult rheumatoid arthritis patients, including at least one treatment arm in line with New Drug Application. We performed random effect meta-analysis, with modified intention to treat and per protocol analyses. Thirty-three trials were included. There was no excess risk of malignancies on anti-TNF-α administered in line with New Drug Application in the per protocol model (OR, 0.93 95%CI[0.59-1.44], as well as in the modified intention to treat model (OR, 1.27 95%CI[0.82-1.98]. There was a non-significant tendency for an excess non-melanoma skin cancer risk in both models (respectively, 1.37 [0.71-2.66] and 1.90 [0.98-3.67]. With fixed effect Peto model restricting to trials during at least 52 weeks, the overall cancer risk was respectively 1.60 [0.97-2.64] and 1.22 [0.72-2.08]. Whatever the model, modified intention to treat analysis led to higher estimations than per protocol analysis. The later may underestimate the treatment effect when assessing very sparse events and when many patients dropped out in placebo arms. In metaregression, there was no differential risk among the five drugs. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study did not find any evidence for an excess cancer risk on TNF

  10. Determining significant endpoints for ecological risk analyses. 1998 annual progress report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinton, T.G.; Congdon, J.; Scott, D. [Univ. of Georgia, Aiken, SC (US). Savannah River Ecology Lab.; Rowe, C. [Univ. of Puerto Rico, San Juan (PR); Bedford, J.; Whicker, W. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (US)

    1998-06-01

    'The goal of this report is to establish a protocol for assessing risks to non-human populations exposed to environmental stresses typically found on many DOE sites. The authors think that they can achieve this by using novel biological dosimeters in controlled, manipulative dose/effects experiments, and by coupling changes in metabolic rates and energy allocation patterns to meaningful population response variables (such as age-specific survivorship, reproductive output, age at maturity and longevity). This research is needed to determine the relevancy of sublethal cellular damage to the performance of individuals and populations exposed to chronic, low-level radiation, and radiation with concomitant exposure to chemicals. They believe that a scientifically defensible endpoint for measuring ecological risks can only be determined once its understood the extent to which molecular damage from contaminant exposure is detrimental at the individual and population levels of biological organization. The experimental facility will allow them to develop a credible assessment tool for appraising ecological risks, and to evaluate the effects of radionuclide/chemical synergisms on non-human species. This report summarizes work completed midway of a 3-year project that began in November 1996. Emphasis to date has centered on three areas: (1) developing a molecular probe to measure stable chromosomal aberrations known as reciprocal translocations, (2) constructing an irradiation facility where the statistical power inherent in replicated mesocosms can be used to address the response of non-human organisms to exposures from low levels of radiation and metal contaminants, and (3) quantifying responses of organisms living in contaminated mesocosms and field sites.'

  11. A combined approach to investigate the toxicity of an industrial landfill's leachate: Chemical analyses, risk assessment and in vitro assays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baderna, D.; Maggioni, S.; Boriani, E.; Gemma, S.; Molteni, M.; Lombardo, A.; Colombo, A.; Bordonali, S.; Rotella, G.; Lodi, M.; Benfenati, E.

    2011-01-01

    Solid wastes constitute an important and emerging problem. Landfills are still one of the most common ways to manage waste disposal. The risk assessment of pollutants from landfills is becoming a major environmental issue in Europe, due to the large number of sites and to the importance of groundwater protection. Furthermore, there is lack of knowledge for the environmental, ecotoxicological and toxicological characteristics of most contaminants contained into landfill leacheates. Understanding leachate composition and creating an integrated strategy for risk assessment are currently needed to correctly face the landfill issues and to make projections on the long-term impacts of a landfill, with particular attention to the estimation of possible adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. In the present study, we propose an integrated strategy to evaluate the toxicity of the leachate using chemical analyses, risk assessment guidelines and in vitro assays using the hepatoma HepG2 cells as a model. The approach was applied on a real case study: an industrial waste landfill in northern Italy for which data on the presence of leachate contaminants are available from the last 11 years. Results from our ecological risk models suggest important toxic effects on freshwater fish and small rodents, mainly due to ammonia and inorganic constituents. Our results from in vitro data show an inhibition of cell proliferation by leachate at low doses and cytotoxic effect at high doses after 48 h of exposure. - Research highlights: → We study the toxicity of leachate from a non-hazardous industrial waste landfill. → We perform chemical analyses, risk assessments and in vitro assays on HepG2 cells. → Risk models suggest toxic effects due to ammonia and inorganic constituents. → In vitro assays show that leachate inhibits cell proliferation at low doses. → Leachate can induce cytotoxic effects on HepG2 cells at high doses.

  12. Transparency for Sponsored Content : Analysing Codes of Ethics in Public Relations, Marketing, Advertising and Journalism

    OpenAIRE

    Ikonen, Pasi; Luoma-aho, Vilma; Bowen, Shannon A.

    2017-01-01

    As sponsored content is gaining ground globally, the boundaries between strategic communication, advertising and journalism are blurring. As sponsored content becomes more common, it raises novel ethical concerns that no industry alone can answer, such as How much disclosure is needed for transparency? Self-regulation via codes of ethics has been suggested as a remedy to meet the rising transparency expectations, and this article analysed 40 codes of ethics in the fields of communication, adv...

  13. Risk analyses for disposing nonhazardous oil field wastes in salt caverns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tomasko, D.; Elcock, D.; Veil, J.; Caudle, D.

    1997-12-01

    Salt caverns have been used for several decades to store various hydrocarbon products. In the past few years, four facilities in the US have been permitted to dispose nonhazardous oil field wastes in salt caverns. Several other disposal caverns have been permitted in Canada and Europe. This report evaluates the possibility that adverse human health effects could result from exposure to contaminants released from the caverns in domal salt formations used for nonhazardous oil field waste disposal. The evaluation assumes normal operations but considers the possibility of leaks in cavern seals and cavern walls during the post-closure phase of operation. In this assessment, several steps were followed to identify possible human health risks. At the broadest level, these steps include identifying a reasonable set of contaminants of possible concern, identifying how humans could be exposed to these contaminants, assessing the toxicities of these contaminants, estimating their intakes, and characterizing their associated human health risks. The contaminants of concern for the assessment are benzene, cadmium, arsenic, and chromium. These were selected as being components of oil field waste and having a likelihood to remain in solution for a long enough time to reach a human receptor.

  14. Risk Factor Analyses for the Return of Spontaneous Circulation in the Asphyxiation Cardiac Arrest Porcine Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cai-Jun Wu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Animal models of asphyxiation cardiac arrest (ACA are frequently used in basic research to mirror the clinical course of cardiac arrest (CA. The rates of the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC in ACA animal models are lower than those from studies that have utilized ventricular fibrillation (VF animal models. The purpose of this study was to characterize the factors associated with the ROSC in the ACA porcine model. Methods: Forty-eight healthy miniature pigs underwent endotracheal tube clamping to induce CA. Once induced, CA was maintained untreated for a period of 8 min. Two minutes following the initiation of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR, defibrillation was attempted until ROSC was achieved or the animal died. To assess the factors associated with ROSC in this CA model, logistic regression analyses were performed to analyze gender, the time of preparation, the amplitude spectrum area (AMSA from the beginning of CPR and the pH at the beginning of CPR. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of AMSA for ROSC. Results: ROSC was only 52.1% successful in this ACA porcine model. The multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that ROSC significantly depended on the time of preparation, AMSA at the beginning of CPR and pH at the beginning of CPR. The area under the ROC curve in for AMSA at the beginning of CPR was 0.878 successful in predicting ROSC (95% confidence intervals: 0.773∼0.983, and the optimum cut-off value was 15.62 (specificity 95.7% and sensitivity 80.0%. Conclusions: The time of preparation, AMSA and the pH at the beginning of CPR were associated with ROSC in this ACA porcine model. AMSA also predicted the likelihood of ROSC in this ACA animal model.

  15. Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

    Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the exposure risk on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Based upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high exposure risk. As a consequence the following recommendations are presented: occupationally exposed persons with small exposure risk should be monitored using only a long-term desimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence desimeter). In the case of internal exposure, the surface and air contamination levels should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed

  16. Nighttime parenting strategies and sleep-related risks to infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpe, Lane E; Ball, Helen L; McKenna, James J

    2013-02-01

    A large social science and public health literature addresses infant sleep safety, with implications for infant mortality in the context of accidental deaths and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). As part of risk reduction campaigns in the USA, parents are encouraged to place infants supine and to alter infant bedding and elements of the sleep environment, and are discouraged from allowing infants to sleep unsupervised, from bed-sharing either at all or under specific circumstances, or from sofa-sharing. These recommendations are based on findings from large-scale epidemiological studies that generate odds ratios or relative risk statistics for various practices; however, detailed behavioural data on nighttime parenting and infant sleep environments are limited. To address this issue, this paper presents and discusses the implications of four case studies based on overnight observations conducted with first-time mothers and their four-month old infants. These case studies were collected at the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at the University of Notre Dame USA between September 2002 and June 2004. Each case study provides a detailed description based on video analysis of sleep-related risks observed while mother-infant dyads spent the night in a sleep lab. The case studies provide examples of mothers engaged in the strategic management of nighttime parenting for whom sleep-related risks to infants arose as a result of these strategies. Although risk reduction guidelines focus on eliminating potentially risky infant sleep practices as if the probability of death from each were equal, the majority of instances in which these occur are unlikely to result in infant mortality. Therefore, we hypothesise that mothers assess potential costs and benefits within margins of risk which are not acknowledged by risk-reduction campaigns. Exploring why mothers might choose to manage sleep and nighttime parenting in ways that appear to increase potential risks to infants may

  17. Alcohol Consumption as a Risk Factor for Acute and Chronic Pancreatitis: A Systematic Review and a Series of Meta-analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samokhvalov, Andriy V; Rehm, Jürgen; Roerecke, Michael

    2015-12-01

    Pancreatitis is a highly prevalent medical condition associated with a spectrum of endocrine and exocrine pancreatic insufficiencies. While high alcohol consumption is an established risk factor for pancreatitis, its relationship with specific types of pancreatitis and a potential threshold have not been systematically examined. We conducted a systematic literature search for studies on the association between alcohol consumption and pancreatitis based on PRISMA guidelines. Non-linear and linear random-effect dose-response meta-analyses using restricted cubic spline meta-regressions and categorical meta-analyses in relation to abstainers were conducted. Seven studies with 157,026 participants and 3618 cases of pancreatitis were included into analyses. The dose-response relationship between average volume of alcohol consumption and risk of pancreatitis was monotonic with no evidence of non-linearity for chronic pancreatitis (CP) for both sexes (p = 0.091) and acute pancreatitis (AP) in men (p = 0.396); it was non-linear for AP in women (p = 0.008). Compared to abstention, there was a significant decrease in risk (RR = 0.76, 95%CI: 0.60-0.97) of AP in women below the threshold of 40 g/day. No such association was found in men (RR = 1.1, 95%CI: 0.69-1.74). The RR for CP at 100 g/day was 6.29 (95%CI: 3.04-13.02). The dose-response relationships between alcohol consumption and risk of pancreatitis were monotonic for CP and AP in men, and non-linear for AP in women. Alcohol consumption below 40 g/day was associated with reduced risk of AP in women. Alcohol consumption beyond this level was increasingly detrimental for any type of pancreatitis. The work was financially supported by a grant from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (R21AA023521) to the last author.

  18. Risk of bleeding related to antithrombotic treatment in cardiovascular disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Rikke; Olesen, Jonas B; Charlot, Mette

    2012-01-01

    Antithrombotic therapy is a cornerstone of treatment in patients with cardiovascular disease with bleeding being the most feared complication. This review describes the risk of bleeding related to different combinations of antithrombotic drugs used for cardiovascular disease: acute coronary...... syndrome (ACS), atrial fibrillation (AF), cerebrovascular (CVD) and peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Different risk assessment schemes and bleeding definitions are compared. The HAS-BLED risk score is recommended in patients with AF and in ACS patients with AF. In patients with ACS with or without...

  19. Antihypertensive drugs and risk of cancer: network meta-analyses and trial sequential analyses of 324,168 participants from randomised trials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangalore, Sripal; Kumar, Sunil; Kjeldsen, Sverre E

    2011-01-01

    The risk of cancer from antihypertensive drugs has been much debated, with a recent analysis showing increased risk with angiotensin-receptor blockers (ARBs). We assessed the association between antihypertensive drugs and cancer risk in a comprehensive analysis of data from randomised clinical tr...

  20. Geospatial analyses and system architectures for the next generation of radioactive materials risk assessment and routing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ganter, J.H.

    1996-01-01

    This paper suggests that inexorable changes in the society are presenting both challenges and a rich selection of technologies for responding to these challenges. The citizen is more demanding of environmental and personal protection, and of information. Simultaneously, the commercial and government information technologies markets are providing new technologies like commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software, common datasets, ''open'' GIS, recordable CD-ROM, and the World Wide Web. Thus one has the raw ingredients for creating new techniques and tools for spatial analysis, and these tools can support participative study and decision-making. By carrying out a strategy of thorough and demonstrably correct science, design, and development, can move forward into a new generation of participative risk assessment and routing for radioactive and hazardous materials

  1. Survey of foreign risk analyses with plans and projects concerning final disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hultgren, Aa.

    1977-08-01

    Risk analysis of the back end of the fuel cycle is now being given increasing efforts in several nuclear power countries. A review of the major programmes abroad in this field, especially for terminal storage of high level nuclear waste, is given in the first part of this report. The second part of the report reviews major projects and plans for terminal storage in America and in Western Europe, with a brief reference to co-operation in international fora. The most comprehensive programme is in progress in the United States. For Sweden it seems that also the programmes in Canada and France are of particular interest due to their concentration on terminal storage in crystalline rocks. (author)

  2. Linkage and related analyses of Barrett's esophagus and its associated adenocarcinomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiangqing; Elston, Robert; Falk, Gary W; Grady, William M; Faulx, Ashley; Mittal, Sumeet K; Canto, Marcia I; Shaheen, Nicholas J; Wang, Jean S; Iyer, Prasad G; Abrams, Julian A; Willis, Joseph E; Guda, Kishore; Markowitz, Sanford; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill S; Chandar, Apoorva; Brock, Wendy; Chak, Amitabh

    2016-07-01

    Familial aggregation and segregation analysis studies have provided evidence of a genetic basis for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and its premalignant precursor, Barrett's esophagus (BE). We aim to demonstrate the utility of linkage analysis to identify the genomic regions that might contain the genetic variants that predispose individuals to this complex trait (BE and EAC). We genotyped 144 individuals in 42 multiplex pedigrees chosen from 1000 singly ascertained BE/EAC pedigrees, and performed both model-based and model-free linkage analyses, using S.A.G.E. and other software. Segregation models were fitted, from the data on both the 42 pedigrees and the 1000 pedigrees, to determine parameters for performing model-based linkage analysis. Model-based and model-free linkage analyses were conducted in two sets of pedigrees: the 42 pedigrees and a subset of 18 pedigrees with female affected members that are expected to be more genetically homogeneous. Genome-wide associations were also tested in these families. Linkage analyses on the 42 pedigrees identified several regions consistently suggestive of linkage by different linkage analysis methods on chromosomes 2q31, 12q23, and 4p14. A linkage on 15q26 is the only consistent linkage region identified in the 18 female-affected pedigrees, in which the linkage signal is higher than in the 42 pedigrees. Other tentative linkage signals are also reported. Our linkage study of BE/EAC pedigrees identified linkage regions on chromosomes 2, 4, 12, and 15, with some reported associations located within our linkage peaks. Our linkage results can help prioritize association tests to delineate the genetic determinants underlying susceptibility to BE and EAC.

  3. Host-Country Related Risk Factors in International Construction: Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Güzin AYDOGAN

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Internationalization has been on the agenda of construction firms as a strategic option in global competition. Due to globalization every sector including the construction industry has faced with high levels of competitiveness, uncertainty, and risk. International construction involves common risks to domestic construction, as well as risks that are related to the host country. These risks have serious effects on the performance of international projects. Since the sustainable competitiveness of international contractors depends largely on the effective management of these risks, their assessment becomes vital for the success of international contractors. The main aim of this study is to analyse the risks for international construction projects that are related to the host country. Meta-analysis technique is used in order to determine these risks. This paper, therefore, reviews the literature that has been published in four most respected construction and management journals, these being; Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Journal of Management in Engineering, Construction Management and Economics, and International Journal of Project Management for the period of 2000-2010. International construction risk assessment models are also reviewed within the context of this study, since host country related risk factors were found to have serious effects on the profitability of international contractors due to literature review. As a result; political stability, law and regulations, exchange rate risk, cultural differences, inflation, expropriation, tax discrimination, language barrier, bribery and corruption, force majeure, and societal conflicts in the host country are found to be the most important risk factors in international construction. Findings of this study can be used in risk assessment models for international construction projects.

  4. Examining the associations between HIV-related stigma and health outcomes in people living with HIV/AIDS: a series of meta-analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueda, Sergio; Mitra, Sanjana; Chen, Shiyi; Gogolishvili, David; Globerman, Jason; Chambers, Lori; Wilson, Mike; Logie, Carmen H; Shi, Qiyun; Morassaei, Sara; Rourke, Sean B

    2016-07-13

    To conduct a systematic review and series of meta-analyses on the association between HIV-related stigma and health among people living with HIV. A structured search was conducted on 6 electronic databases for journal articles reporting associations between HIV-related stigma and health-related outcomes published between 1996 and 2013. Controlled studies, cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies in people living with HIV were considered for inclusion. Mental health (depressive symptoms, emotional and mental distress, anxiety), quality of life, physical health, social support, adherence to antiretroviral therapy, access to and usage of health/social services and risk behaviours. 64 studies were included in our meta-analyses. We found significant associations between HIV-related stigma and higher rates of depression, lower social support and lower levels of adherence to antiretroviral medications and access to and usage of health and social services. Weaker relationships were observed between HIV-related stigma and anxiety, quality of life, physical health, emotional and mental distress and sexual risk practices. While risk of bias assessments revealed overall good quality related to how HIV stigma and health outcomes were measured on the included studies, high risk of bias among individual studies was observed in terms of appropriate control for potential confounders. Additional research should focus on elucidating the mechanisms behind the negative relationship between stigma and health to better inform interventions to reduce the impact of stigma on the health and well-being of people with HIV. This systematic review and series of meta-analyses support the notion that HIV-related stigma has a detrimental impact on a variety of health-related outcomes in people with HIV. This review can inform the development of multifaceted, intersectoral interventions to reduce the impact of HIV-related stigma on the health and well-being of people living

  5. The influence of the technologically advanced evacuation models on the risk analyses during accidents in LNG terminal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stankovicj, Goran; Petelin, Stojan [Faculty for Maritime Studies and Transport, University of Ljubljana, Portorozh (Sierra Leone); others, and

    2014-07-01

    The evacuation of people located in different safety zones of an LNG terminal is a complex problem considering that the accidents involving LNG are very hazardous and post the biggest threat to the safety of the people located near the LNG leakage. The safety risk criteria define the parameters which one LNG terminal should meet in terms of safety. Those criteria also contain an evacuation as an evasive action with the objective to mitigate the influence of the LNG accident on the people at risk. Till date, not a lot of attention has been paid to technologically advanced evacuations intended for LNG terminals. Creating the technologically advanced evacuation influences directly on the decrease of the probability of fatalities P{sub f,i}, thus influencing the calculation of the individual risk as well as the societal risk which results in the positioning of the F-N curve in the acceptable part of the ALARP zone. With this paper, we aim to present the difference between the safety analyses in cases when conservative data for P{sub f,i} is being used while calculating the risk, and in cases when real data for P{sub f,i} is been used. (Author)

  6. Logistic regression and multiple classification analyses to explore risk factors of under-5 mortality in bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhowmik, K.R.; Islam, S.

    2016-01-01

    Logistic regression (LR) analysis is the most common statistical methodology to find out the determinants of childhood mortality. However, the significant predictors cannot be ranked according to their influence on the response variable. Multiple classification (MC) analysis can be applied to identify the significant predictors with a priority index which helps to rank the predictors. The main objective of the study is to find the socio-demographic determinants of childhood mortality at neonatal, post-neonatal, and post-infant period by fitting LR model as well as to rank those through MC analysis. The study is conducted using the data of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2007 where birth and death information of children were collected from their mothers. Three dichotomous response variables are constructed from children age at death to fit the LR and MC models. Socio-economic and demographic variables significantly associated with the response variables separately are considered in LR and MC analyses. Both the LR and MC models identified the same significant predictors for specific childhood mortality. For both the neonatal and child mortality, biological factors of children, regional settings, and parents socio-economic status are found as 1st, 2nd, and 3rd significant groups of predictors respectively. Mother education and household environment are detected as major significant predictors of post-neonatal mortality. This study shows that MC analysis with or without LR analysis can be applied to detect determinants with rank which help the policy makers taking initiatives on a priority basis. (author)

  7. Psychosocial Factors Related to Lateral and Medial Epicondylitis: Results From Pooled Study Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiese, Matthew S; Hegmann, Kurt T; Kapellusch, Jay; Merryweather, Andrew; Bao, Stephen; Silverstein, Barbara; Tang, Ruoliang; Garg, Arun

    2016-06-01

    The goal is to assess the relationships between psychosocial factors and both medial and lateral epicondylitis after adjustment for personal and job physical exposures. One thousand eight hundred twenty-four participants were included in pooled analyses. Ten psychosocial factors were assessed. One hundred twenty-one (6.6%) and 34 (1.9%) participants have lateral and medial epicondylitis, respectively. Nine psychosocial factors assessed had significant trends or associations with lateral epicondylitis, the largest of which was between physical exhaustion after work and lateral epicondylitis with and odds ratio of 7.04 (95% confidence interval = 2.02 to 24.51). Eight psychosocial factors had significant trends or relationships with medial epicondylitis, with the largest being between mental exhaustion after work with an odds ratio of 6.51 (95% confidence interval = 1.57 to 27.04). The breadth and strength of these associations after adjustment for confounding factors demonstrate meaningful relationships that need to be further investigated in prospective analyses.

  8. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2016-01-01

    In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

  9. Heterogenous Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution and Relative Risk Aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia; Gayle, Wayne-Roy

    This paper investigates the existence and degree of variation across house holds and over time in the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) and the coefficient of relative risk aversion (RRA) that is generated by habit forming preferences. To do so, we develop a new nonlinear GMM estimator...... in food consumption. Using these estimates, we develop bounds for the expectation of the implied heterogenous intertemporal elasticity of substitution and relative risk aversion that account for measurement errors and compute asymptotically valid confidence intervals on these bounds. We find...

  10. All India survey for analyses of colors in sweets and savories: exposure risk in Indian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Sumita; Khanna, Subhash K; Das, Mukul

    2013-04-01

    In the present study, an attempt has been made to understand the exposure assessment of food colors through 2 major groups, sweets and savories, at a national level so as to evolve a scientific yardstick to fix levels of colors in commodities based on technological and safety requirement. A vast majority of colored food commodities (83.6%) were found to employ permitted colors and confirmed a marked decline in the trend of use of nonpermitted colors (NPCs). Of the 4 zones of India, East zone showed the maximum adulteration (80.3%) both by exceeding the prescribed limits of permitted colors (72.3%) and the use of NPCs (28.7%). Tartrazine was the most popular color among the permitted list, which ranged from 12.5 to 1091 mg/kg. Rhodamine B was the most prevalent dye in the NPCs group. On the basis of average consumption of food commodities and average levels of detected colors, the intake of Sunset Yellow FCF saturates the acceptable daily intake limit to a maximum of 47.8% in children, which is a cause of concern. The uniform maximum permissible limit of synthetic colors at 100 mg/kg under the Indian rules thus needs to be reviewed and should rather be governed by the technological necessity and the consumption profiles of food commodities so that the vulnerable population should not unnecessary be exposed to excessive amounts of synthetic colors to pose health risks. © 2013 Institute of Food Technologists®

  11. Estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss among rheumatoid arthritis patients undergoing tofacitinib treatment: post hoc analyses of two randomized clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rendas-Baum, Regina; Kosinski, Mark; Singh, Amitabh; Mebus, Charles A; Wilkinson, Bethany E; Wallenstein, Gene V

    2017-08-01

    RA causes high disability levels and reduces health-related quality of life, triggering increased costs and risk of unemployment. Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of RA. These post hoc analyses of phase 3 data aimed to assess monthly medical expenditure (MME) and risk of job loss for tofacitinib treatment vs placebo. Data analysed were from two randomized phase 3 studies of RA patients (n = 1115) with inadequate response to MTX or TNF inhibitors (TNFi) receiving tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg twice daily, adalimumab (one study only) or placebo, in combination with MTX. Short Form 36 version 2 Health Survey physical and mental component summary scores were translated into predicted MME via an algorithm and concurrent inability to work and job loss risks at 6, 12 and 24 months, using Medical Outcomes Study data. MME reduction by month 3 was $100 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated TNFi inadequate responders (P 20 and 6% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾16%, and risk of future job loss decreased ∼20% (P tofacitinib- than placebo-treated MTX inadequate responders (P tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾31% and risk of future job loss decreased ⩾25% (P Tofacitinib treatment had a positive impact on estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss for RA patients with inadequate response to MTX or TNFi. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.

  12. Visible learning a synthesis of over 800 meta-analyses relating to achievement

    CERN Document Server

    Hattie, John A C

    2009-01-01

    This unique and ground-breaking book is the result of 15 years research and synthesises over 800 meta-analyses on the influences on achievement in school-aged students. It builds a story about the power of teachers, feedback, and a model of learning and understanding. The research involves many millions of students and represents the largest ever evidence based research into what actually works in schools to improve learning. Areas covered include the influence of the student, home, school, curricula, teacher, and teaching strategies. A model of teaching and learning is developed based on the notion of visible teaching and visible learning. A major message is that what works best for students is similar to what works best for teachers - an attention to setting challenging learning intentions, being clear about what success means, and an attention to learning strategies for developing conceptual understanding about what teachers and students know and understand. Although the current evidence based fad has turn...

  13. Studies analysing the need for health-related information in Germany - a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieper, Dawid; Jülich, Fabian; Antoine, Sunya-Lee; Bächle, Christina; Chernyak, Nadja; Genz, Jutta; Eikermann, Michaela; Icks, Andrea

    2015-09-23

    Exploring health-related information needs is necessary to better tailor information. However, there is a lack of systematic knowledge on how and in which groups information needs has been assessed, and which information needs have been identified. We aimed to assess the methodology of studies used to assess information needs, as well as the topics and extent of health-related information needs and associated factors in Germany. A systematic search was performed in Medline, Embase, Psycinfo, and all databases of the Cochrane Library. All studies investigating health-related information needs in patients, relatives, and the general population in Germany that were published between 2000 and 2012 in German or English were included. Descriptive content analysis was based on predefined categories. We identified 19 studies. Most studies addressed cancer or rheumatic disease. Methods used were highly heterogeneous. Apart from common topics such as treatment, diagnosis, prevention and health promotion, etiology and prognosis, high interest ratings were also found in more specific topics such as complementary and alternative medicine or nutrition. Information needs were notable in all surveyed patient groups, relatives, and samples of the general population. Younger age, shorter duration of illness, poorer health status and higher anxiety and depression scores appeared to be associated with higher information needs. Knowledge about information needs is still scarce. Assuming the importance of comprehensive information to enable people to participate in health-related decisions, further systematic research is required.

  14. Use of results of microbiological analyses for risk-based control of Listeria monocytogenes in marinated broiler legs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarnisalo, Kaarina; Vihavainen, Elina; Rantala, Leila; Maijala, Riitta; Suihko, Maija-Liisa; Hielm, Sebastian; Tuominen, Pirkko; Ranta, Jukka; Raaska, Laura

    2008-02-10

    Microbial risk assessment provides a means of estimating consumer risks associated with food products. The methods can also be applied at the plant level. In this study results of microbiological analyses were used to develop a robust single plant level risk assessment. Furthermore, the prevalence and numbers of Listeria monocytogenes in marinated broiler legs in Finland were estimated. These estimates were based on information on the prevalence, numbers and genotypes of L. monocytogenes in 186 marinated broiler legs from 41 retail stores. The products were from three main Finnish producers, which produce 90% of all marinated broiler legs sold in Finland. The prevalence and numbers of L. monocytogenes were estimated by Monte Carlo simulation using WinBUGS, but the model is applicable to any software featuring standard probability distributions. The estimated mean annual number of L. monocytogenes-positive broiler legs sold in Finland was 7.2x10(6) with a 95% credible interval (CI) 6.7x10(6)-7.7x10(6). That would be 34%+/-1% of the marinated broiler legs sold in Finland. The mean number of L. monocytogenes in marinated broiler legs estimated at the sell-by-date was 2 CFU/g, with a 95% CI of 0-14 CFU/g. Producer-specific L. monocytogenes strains were recovered from the products throughout the year, which emphasizes the importance of characterizing the isolates and identifying strains that may cause problems as part of risk assessment studies. As the levels of L. monocytogenes were low, the risk of acquiring listeriosis from these products proved to be insignificant. Consequently there was no need for a thorough national level risk assessment. However, an approach using worst-case and average point estimates was applied to produce an example of single producer level risk assessment based on limited data. This assessment also indicated that the risk from these products was low. The risk-based approach presented in this work can provide estimation of public health risk

  15. Smokers' increased risk for disability pension: social confounding or health-mediated effects? Gender-specific analyses of the Hordaland Health Study cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haukenes, Inger; Riise, Trond; Haug, Kjell; Farbu, Erlend; Maeland, John Gunnar

    2013-09-01

    Studies indicate that cigarette smokers have an increased risk for disability pension, presumably mediated by adverse health effects. However, smoking is also related to socioeconomic status. The current study examined the association between smoking and subsequent disability pension, and whether the association is explained by social confounding and/or health-related mediation. A subsample of 7934 men and 8488 women, aged 40-46, from the Hordaland Health Study, Norway (1997-1999), provided baseline information on smoking status, self-reported health measures and socioeconomic status. Outcome was register-based disability pension from 12 months after baseline to end of 2004. Gender stratified Cox regression analyses were used adjusted for socioeconomic status, physical activity, self-reported health and musculoskeletal pain sites. A total of 155 (2%) men and 333 (3.9%) women were granted disability pension during follow-up. The unadjusted disability risk associated with heavy smoking versus non-smoking was 1.88 (95% CI 1.23 to 2.89) among men and 3.06 (95% CI 2.23 to 4.20) among women. In multivariate analyses, adjusting for socioeconomic status, HRs were 1.33 (95% CI 0.84 to 2.11) among men and 2.22 (95% CI 1.58 to 3.13) among women. Final adjustment for physical activity, self-reported health and musculoskeletal pain further reduced the effect of heavy smoking in women (HR=1.53, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.16). Socioeconomic status confounded the smoking-related risk for disability pension; for female heavy smokers, however, a significant increased risk persisted after adjustment. Women may be particularly vulnerable to heavy smoking and to its sociomedical consequences, such as disability pension.

  16. Cancer-related fatigue: Mechanisms, risk factors, and treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Julienne E.

    2015-01-01

    Fatigue is one of the most common and distressing side effects of cancer and its treatment, and may persist for years after treatment completion in otherwise healthy survivors. Cancer-related fatigue causes disruption in all aspects of quality of life and may be a risk factor for reduced survival. The prevalence and course of fatigue in cancer patients has been well characterized, and there is growing understanding of underlying biological mechanisms. Inflammation has emerged as a key biological pathway for cancer-related fatigue, with studies documenting links between markers of inflammation and fatigue before, during, and particularly after treatment. There is considerable variability in the experience of cancer-related fatigue that is not explained by disease- or treatment-related characteristics, suggesting that host factors may play an important role in the development and persistence of this symptom. Indeed, longitudinal studies have begun to identify genetic, biological, psychosocial, and behavioral risk factors for cancer-related fatigue. Given the multi-factorial nature of cancer-related fatigue, a variety of intervention approaches have been examined in randomized controlled trials, including physical activity, psychosocial, mind-body, and pharmacological treatments. Although there is currently no gold standard for treating fatigue, several of these approaches have shown beneficial effects and can be recommended to patients. This report provides a state of the science review of mechanisms, risk factors, and interventions for cancer-related fatigue, with a focus on recent longitudinal studies and randomized trials that have targeted fatigued patients. PMID:25113839

  17. Are we overestimating the stroke risk related to contraceptive pills?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gompel, Anne; Plu-Bureau, Genevieve

    2014-02-01

    Hormonal contraceptives are used by million of women worldwide. Ischemic stroke is one of the major harmful effects of hormonal contraceptives, but remains a very uncommon disease before menopause. The increased risk of stroke under third and fourth-generation contraceptive pills and nonoral contraceptives has been recently highlighted. Given the benefits associated with combined hormonal contraceptives (COCs), it is important to properly evaluate their risks in order to provide a better benefit/risk balance to young women. Scarce studies addressing the rates of stroke in young women suggest that the fraction attributable to the contraceptive pill remains low. In contrast, there is abundant literature on the relative risks of stroke under COCs. The risk of arterial disease seems to be similar among users of second and third-generation pills, drospirenone-containing pills and nonoral hormonal contraceptives. Progestin-only contraceptives do not appear to be associated with an increased risk of stroke. New formulations of hormonal contraceptives are not safer than second-generation COCs. Even if the absolute numbers of strokes attributable to hormonal contraceptives is very low, stringent selection of patients should help to reduce the events still more, and progestin-only contraceptives/nonhormonal methods should be preferred in cases of associated risk factors.

  18. Risk of bleeding related to antithrombotic treatment in cardiovascular disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Rikke; Olesen, Jonas B; Charlot, Mette

    2012-01-01

    Antithrombotic therapy is a cornerstone of treatment in patients with cardiovascular disease with bleeding being the most feared complication. This review describes the risk of bleeding related to different combinations of antithrombotic drugs used for cardiovascular disease: acute coronary...... syndrome (ACS), atrial fibrillation (AF), cerebrovascular (CVD) and peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Different risk assessment schemes and bleeding definitions are compared. The HAS-BLED risk score is recommended in patients with AF and in ACS patients with AF. In patients with ACS with or without...... a stent dual antiplatelet therapy with a P2Y12 receptor antagonist and acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) is recommended for 12 months, preferable with prasugrel or ticagrelor unless there is an additional indication of warfarin or increased risk of bleeding. In patients with AF, warfarin is recommended...

  19. Elite athletes experiences with risk related to cardiac screening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jonas Schmidt; Thing, Lone Friis

    Society of Cardiology as well as major sports federations such as the International Olympic Committee, however, these recommendations seem to be based on an inadequate empirical foundation, just as the costs of performing cardiac screening on a larger scale seem out of proportion. Additionally, the field...... perspective on risk (Foucault 1988). For most elite athletes participation in cardiac screening is done out of a wish to obtain an acquittal from risks. Symptomatic of the risk society cardiac screening can from an athlete perspective at the same time be seen as an attempt to gain control over......Elite Athletes experiences with risks related to Cardiac Screening Jonas Schmidt Christensen1, Lone Friis Thing1 1University of Copenhagen - Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports (NEXS), Cardiac screening of elite athletes are recommended by both the American Heart Association & the European...

  20. End-systolic stress-velocity relation and circumferential fiber velocity shortening for analysing left ventricular function in mice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fayssoil, A. [Cardiologie, Hopital europeen Georges Pompidou, 20, rue le blanc, Paris (France)], E-mail: fayssoil2000@yahoo.fr; Renault, G. [CNRS UMR 8104, Inserm, U567, Institut Cochin, Universite Paris Descartes, Paris (France); Fougerousse, F. [Genethon, RD, Evry (France)

    2009-08-15

    Traditionally, analysing left ventricular (LV) performance relies on echocardiography by evaluating shortening fraction (SF) in mice. SF is influenced by load conditions. End-systolic stress-velocity (ESSV) relation and circumferential fiber velocity (VcF) shortening are more relevant parameters for evaluating systolic function regardless load conditions particularly in mice's models of heart failure.

  1. Risk Management related to Privacy Policies of an Online Store

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Cristian Schin

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to explore the early warning alerts that NORSE system proposes to e-commerce merchants. The real time visibility to cyber-attacks empowers this intelligence tool with high capabilities to detect the threats that companies confront with. The fight against cyber-criminality should be reinforced globally, in the attempt to mitigate the risks and losses determined by attackers. By analysing two case studies, the article proposes a framework which can guide e-commerce merchants to integrate intelligent systems for threat detection. The managerial implications are obvious, equipping the leaders with tools to prevent both financial and knowledge loss.

  2. [Occupational risk related to optical radiation exposure in construction workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobba, F; Modenese, A

    2012-01-01

    Optical Radiation is a relevant occupational risk in construction workers, mainly as a consequence of the exposure to the ultraviolet (UV) component of solar radiation (SR). Available data show that UV occupational limits are frequently exceeded in these workers, resulting in an increased occupational risk of various acute and chronic effects, mainly to skin and to the eye. One of the foremost is the carcinogenic effect: SR is indeed included in Group 1 IARC (carcinogenic to humans). UV exposure is related to an increase of the incidence of basal cell carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma of the skin and cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). The incidence of these tumors, especially CMM, is constantly increasing in Caucasians in the last 50 years. As a conclusion, an adequate evaluation of the occupational risk related to SR, and adequate preventive measures are essential in construction workers. The role of occupational physicians in prevention is fundamental.

  3. Urbanization and traffic related exposures as risk factors for Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Mortensen, Preben Bo

    2006-01-01

    : The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road had a significant effect. The highest risk was found in children living 500-1000 metres from nearest major road (RR=1.30 (95% Confidence Interval: 1.17-1.44). However, when we accounted for the degree of urbanization, the geographical distance...... that traffic related exposures affect schizophrenia risk and that this potential effect is responsible for the urban-rural differences. The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road was used as a proxy variable for traffic related exposures. We used a large population-based sample......BACKGROUND: Urban birth or upbringing increase schizophrenia risk. Though unknown, the causes of these urban-rural differences have been hypothesized to include, e.g., infections, diet, toxic exposures, social class, or an artefact due to selective migration. METHODS: We investigated the hypothesis...

  4. Effects of parenting interventions for at-risk parents with infants: a systematic review and meta-analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rayce, Signe B; Rasmussen, Ida S; Klest, Sihu K; Patras, Joshua; Pontoppidan, Maiken

    2017-12-27

    Infancy is a critical stage of life, and a secure relationship with caring and responsive caregivers is crucial for healthy infant development. Early parenting interventions aim to support families in which infants are at risk of developmental harm. Our objective is to systematically review the effects of parenting interventions on child development and on parent-child relationship for at-risk families with infants aged 0-12 months. This is a systematic review and meta-analyses. We extracted publications from 10 databases in June 2013, January 2015 and June 2016, and supplemented with grey literature and hand search. We assessed risk of bias, calculated effect sizes and conducted meta-analyses. (1) Randomised controlled trials of structured psychosocial interventions offered to at-risk families with infants aged 0-12 months in Western Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, (2) interventions with a minimum of three sessions and at least half of these delivered postnatally and (3) outcomes reported for child development or parent-child relationship. Sixteen studies were included. Meta-analyses were conducted on seven outcomes represented in 13 studies. Parenting interventions significantly improved child behaviour ( d =0.14; 95% CI 0.03 to 0.26), parent-child relationship ( d =0.44; 95% CI 0.09 to 0.80) and maternal sensitivity ( d =0.46; 95% CI 0.26 to 0.65) postintervention. There were no significant effects on cognitive development ( d= 0.13; 95% CI -0.08 to 0.41), internalising behaviour ( d= 0.16; 95% CI -0.03 to 0.33) or externalising behaviour ( d= 0.16; 95% CI -0.01 to 0.30) post-intervention. At long-term follow-up we found no significant effect on child behaviour ( d= 0.15; 95% CI -0.03 to 0.31). Interventions offered to at-risk families in the first year of the child's life appear to improve child behaviour, parent-child relationship and maternal sensitivity post-intervention, but not child cognitive

  5. Characterizing Response-Reinforcer Relations in the Natural Environment: Exploratory Matching Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sy, Jolene R.; Borrero, John C.; Borrero, Carrie S. W.

    2010-01-01

    We assessed problem and appropriate behavior in the natural environment from a matching perspective. Problem and appropriate behavior were conceptualized as concurrently available responses, the occurrence of which was thought to be determined by the relative rates or durations of reinforcement. We also assessed whether response allocation could…

  6. Differential item functioning (DIF) analyses of health-related quality of life instruments using logistic regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scott, Neil W.; Fayers, Peter M.; Aaronson, Neil K.

    2010-01-01

    Differential item functioning (DIF) methods can be used to determine whether different subgroups respond differently to particular items within a health-related quality of life (HRQoL) subscale, after allowing for overall subgroup differences in that scale. This article reviews issues that arise...

  7. Aerobic fitness related to cardiovascular risk factors in young children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Thorsson, Ola; Karlsson, Magnus K

    2012-01-01

    Low aerobic fitness (maximum oxygen uptake (VO(2PEAK))) is predictive for poor health in adults. In a cross-sectional study, we assessed if VO(2PEAK) is related to a composite risk factor score for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in 243 children (136 boys and 107 girls) aged 8 to 11 years. VO(2PEAK...

  8. HIV/AIDS Related Knowledge and Perceived Risk Associated with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Using data from the 2004 National Survey of Adolescents in Uganda, logistic regression models were fitted to examine the odds that HIV/AIDS related knowledge and perceived risk of HIV infection are associated with condom use among adolescents. After including demographic measures, findings indicated that correct ...

  9. Cancer-related fatigue--mechanisms, risk factors, and treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Julienne E

    2014-10-01

    Fatigue is one of the most common adverse effects of cancer that might persist for years after treatment completion in otherwise healthy survivors. Cancer-related fatigue causes disruption in all aspects of quality of life and might be a risk factor of reduced survival. The prevalence and course of fatigue in patients with cancer have been well characterized and there is growing understanding of the underlying biological mechanisms. Inflammation seems to have a key role in fatigue before, during, and after cancer-treatment. However, there is a considerable variability in the presentation of cancer-related fatigue, much of which is not explained by disease-related or treatment-related characteristics, suggesting that host factors might be important in the development and persistence of this symptom. Indeed, longitudinal studies have identified genetic, biological, psychosocial, and behavioural risk factors associated with cancer-related fatigue. Although no current gold-standard treatment for fatigue is available, a variety of intervention approaches have shown beneficial effects in randomized controlled trials, including physical activity, psychosocial, mind-body, and pharmacological treatments. This Review describes the mechanisms, risk factors, and possible interventions for cancer-related fatigue, focusing on recent longitudinal studies and randomized trials that have targeted fatigued patients.

  10. Aesthetic appreciation: event-related field and time-frequency analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munar, Enric; Nadal, Marcos; Castellanos, Nazareth P; Flexas, Albert; Maestú, Fernando; Mirasso, Claudio; Cela-Conde, Camilo J

    2011-01-01

    Improvements in neuroimaging methods have afforded significant advances in our knowledge of the cognitive and neural foundations of aesthetic appreciation. We used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to register brain activity while participants decided about the beauty of visual stimuli. The data were analyzed with event-related field (ERF) and Time-Frequency (TF) procedures. ERFs revealed no significant differences between brain activity related with stimuli rated as "beautiful" and "not beautiful." TF analysis showed clear differences between both conditions 400 ms after stimulus onset. Oscillatory power was greater for stimuli rated as "beautiful" than those regarded as "not beautiful" in the four frequency bands (theta, alpha, beta, and gamma). These results are interpreted in the frame of synchronization studies.

  11. A systematic review and meta-analyses on C-reactive protein in relation to periodontitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paraskevas, Spiros; Huizinga, John D; Loos, Bruno G

    2008-04-01

    Elevated plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) is regarded as a risk predictor for cardiovascular diseases. This systematic review explored the robustness of observations that CRP is elevated in periodontitis. Similarly, the effect of periodontal therapy on CRP levels was investigated. Selection of publications was based on: (1) cross-sectional (case-control) studies; (2) longitudinal (treatment) studies; (3) high-sensitivity CRP measurement; (4) median and/or mean (+/-SD) values presented; and (5) subjects with no systemic disorders. Screening of the initially 448 identified studies and reference checking resulted in 18 suitable papers. The majority of the studies showed that CRP levels are higher in patients than in controls. Often, studies showed that patients had CRP levels >2.1 mg/l. A meta-analysis of 10 cross-sectional studies showed that the weighted mean difference (WMD) of CRP between patients and controls was 1.56 mg/l (pperiodontal therapy. Eligible treatment studies in a meta-analysis demonstrated a WMD of reductions of CRP after therapy of 0.50 mg/L (95% CI 0.08-0.93) (p=0.02). There is strong evidence from cross-sectional studies that plasma CRP in periodontitis is elevated compared with controls. There is modest evidence on the effect of periodontal therapy in lowering the levels of CRP.

  12. Analysing countries' contribution to climate change: scientific and policy-related choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elzen, Michel den; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Hoehne, Niklas; Trudinger, Cathy; Lowe, Jason; Matthews, Ben; Romstad, Bard; Pires de Campos, Christiano; Andronova, Natalia

    2005-01-01

    This paper evaluates the influence of different policy-related and scientific choices on the calculated regional contributions to global climate change (the 'Brazilian Proposal'). Policy-related choices include the time period of emissions, the mix of greenhouse gases and different indicators of climate change impacts. The scientific choices include historical emissions and model representations of the climate system. We generated and compared results of several simple climate models. We find that the relative contributions of different nations to global climate change-from emissions of greenhouse gases alone-are quite robust, despite the varying model complexity and differences in calculated absolute changes. For the default calculations, the average calculated contributions to the global mean surface temperature increase in 2000 are about 40% from OECD, 14% from Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union, 24% from Asia and 22% from Africa and Latin America. Policy-related choices, such as time period of emissions, climate change indicator and gas mix generally have larger influence on the results than scientific choices. More specifically, choosing a later attribution start date (1990 instead of 1890) for historical emissions, decreases the contributions of regions that started emitting early, such as the OECD countries by 6 percentage points, whereas it increases the contribution of late emitters such as Asia by 8 percentage points. However, only including the fossil CO 2 emissions instead of the emissions of all Kyoto gases (fossil and land use change), increases the OECD contributions by 21 percentage points and decreases the contribution of Asia by 14 percentage points

  13. Differential item functioning (DIF) analyses of health-related quality of life instruments using logistic regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scott, Neil W; Fayers, Peter M; Aaronson, Neil K

    2010-01-01

    Differential item functioning (DIF) methods can be used to determine whether different subgroups respond differently to particular items within a health-related quality of life (HRQoL) subscale, after allowing for overall subgroup differences in that scale. This article reviews issues that arise ...... when testing for DIF in HRQoL instruments. We focus on logistic regression methods, which are often used because of their efficiency, simplicity and ease of application....

  14. Disentangling the Attention Network Test: Behavioral, Event Related Potentials and neural source analyses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro eGalvao-Carmona

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Background. The study of the attentional system remains a challenge for current neuroscience. The Attention Network Test (ANT was designed to study simultaneously three different attentional networks (alerting, orienting and executive based in subtraction of different experimental conditions. However, some studies recommend caution with these calculations due to the interactions between the attentional networks. In particular, it is highly relevant that several interpretations about attentional impairment have arisen from these calculations in diverse pathologies. Event Related Potentials (ERPs and neural source analysis can be applied to disentangle the relationships between these attentional networks not specifically shown by behavioural measures. Results. This study shows that there is a basic level of alerting (tonic alerting in the no cue condition, represented by a slow negative trend in the ERP trace prior to the onset of the target stimuli. A progressive increase in the CNV amplitude related to the amount of information provided by the cue conditions is also shown. Neural source analysis reveals specific modulations of the CNV related to a task-related expectancy presented in the no cue condition; a late modulation triggered by the central cue condition and probably representing a generic motor preparation; and an early and late modulation for spatial cue condition suggesting specific motor and sensory preactivation. Finally, the first component in the information processing of the target stimuli modulated by the interaction between orienting network and the executive system can be represented by N1. Conclusions. The ANT is useful as a paradigm to study specific attentional mechanisms and their interactions. However, calculation of network effects is based in subtractions with non-comparable experimental conditions, as evidenced by the present data, which can induce misinterpretations in the study of the attentional capacity in human

  15. A protein relational database and protein family knowledge bases to facilitate structure-based design analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobilio, Dominick; Walker, Gary; Brooijmans, Natasja; Nilakantan, Ramaswamy; Denny, R Aldrin; Dejoannis, Jason; Feyfant, Eric; Kowticwar, Rupesh K; Mankala, Jyoti; Palli, Satish; Punyamantula, Sairam; Tatipally, Maneesh; John, Reji K; Humblet, Christine

    2010-08-01

    The Protein Data Bank is the most comprehensive source of experimental macromolecular structures. It can, however, be difficult at times to locate relevant structures with the Protein Data Bank search interface. This is particularly true when searching for complexes containing specific interactions between protein and ligand atoms. Moreover, searching within a family of proteins can be tedious. For example, one cannot search for some conserved residue as residue numbers vary across structures. We describe herein three databases, Protein Relational Database, Kinase Knowledge Base, and Matrix Metalloproteinase Knowledge Base, containing protein structures from the Protein Data Bank. In Protein Relational Database, atom-atom distances between protein and ligand have been precalculated allowing for millisecond retrieval based on atom identity and distance constraints. Ring centroids, centroid-centroid and centroid-atom distances and angles have also been included permitting queries for pi-stacking interactions and other structural motifs involving rings. Other geometric features can be searched through the inclusion of residue pair and triplet distances. In Kinase Knowledge Base and Matrix Metalloproteinase Knowledge Base, the catalytic domains have been aligned into common residue numbering schemes. Thus, by searching across Protein Relational Database and Kinase Knowledge Base, one can easily retrieve structures wherein, for example, a ligand of interest is making contact with the gatekeeper residue.

  16. Citrus plastid-related gene profiling based on expressed sequence tag analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tercilio Calsa Jr.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Plastid-related sequences, derived from putative nuclear or plastome genes, were searched in a large collection of expressed sequence tags (ESTs and genomic sequences from the Citrus Biotechnology initiative in Brazil. The identified putative Citrus chloroplast gene sequences were compared to those from Arabidopsis, Eucalyptus and Pinus. Differential expression profiling for plastid-directed nuclear-encoded proteins and photosynthesis-related gene expression variation between Citrus sinensis and Citrus reticulata, when inoculated or not with Xylella fastidiosa, were also analyzed. Presumed Citrus plastome regions were more similar to Eucalyptus. Some putative genes appeared to be preferentially expressed in vegetative tissues (leaves and bark or in reproductive organs (flowers and fruits. Genes preferentially expressed in fruit and flower may be associated with hypothetical physiological functions. Expression pattern clustering analysis suggested that photosynthesis- and carbon fixation-related genes appeared to be up- or down-regulated in a resistant or susceptible Citrus species after Xylella inoculation in comparison to non-infected controls, generating novel information which may be helpful to develop novel genetic manipulation strategies to control Citrus variegated chlorosis (CVC.

  17. Adjuvant Sunitinib for High-risk Renal Cell Carcinoma After Nephrectomy: Subgroup Analyses and Updated Overall Survival Results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motzer, Robert J; Ravaud, Alain; Patard, Jean-Jacques; Pandha, Hardev S; George, Daniel J; Patel, Anup; Chang, Yen-Hwa; Escudier, Bernard; Donskov, Frede; Magheli, Ahmed; Carteni, Giacomo; Laguerre, Brigitte; Tomczak, Piotr; Breza, Jan; Gerletti, Paola; Lechuga, Mariajose; Lin, Xun; Casey, Michelle; Serfass, Lucile; Pantuck, Allan J; Staehler, Michael

    2018-01-01

    Adjuvant sunitinib significantly improved disease-free survival (DFS) versus placebo in patients with locoregional renal cell carcinoma (RCC) at high risk of recurrence after nephrectomy (hazard ratio [HR] 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.98; p=0.03). To report the relationship between baseline factors and DFS, pattern of recurrence, and updated overall survival (OS). Data for 615 patients randomized to sunitinib (n=309) or placebo (n=306) in the S-TRAC trial. Subgroup DFS analyses by baseline risk factors were conducted using a Cox proportional hazards model. Baseline risk factors included: modified University of California Los Angeles integrated staging system criteria, age, gender, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS), weight, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and Fuhrman grade. Of 615 patients, 97 and 122 in the sunitinib and placebo arms developed metastatic disease, with the most common sites of distant recurrence being lung (40 and 49), lymph node (21 and 26), and liver (11 and 14), respectively. A benefit of adjuvant sunitinib over placebo was observed across subgroups, including: higher risk (T3, no or undetermined nodal involvement, Fuhrman grade ≥2, ECOG PS ≥1, T4 and/or nodal involvement; hazard ratio [HR] 0.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55-0.99; p=0.04), NLR ≤3 (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.54-0.95; p=0.02), and Fuhrman grade 3/4 (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.55-0.98; p=0.04). All subgroup analyses were exploratory, and no adjustments for multiplicity were made. Median OS was not reached in either arm (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.66-1.28; p=0.6); 67 and 74 patients died in the sunitinib and placebo arms, respectively. A benefit of adjuvant sunitinib over placebo was observed across subgroups. The results are consistent with the primary analysis, which showed a benefit for adjuvant sunitinib in patients at high risk of recurrent RCC after nephrectomy. Most subgroups of patients at high risk of recurrent renal cell carcinoma after

  18. [Risk factors related to surgical site infection in elective surgery].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeles-Garay, Ulises; Morales-Márquez, Lucy Isabel; Sandoval-Balanzarios, Miguel Antonio; Velázquez-García, José Arturo; Maldonado-Torres, Lulia; Méndez-Cano, Andrea Fernanda

    2014-01-01

    The risk factors for surgical site infections in surgery should be measured and monitored from admission to 30 days after the surgical procedure, because 30% of Surgical Site Infection is detected when the patient was discharged. Calculate the Relative Risk of associated factors to surgical site infections in adult with elective surgery. Patients were classified according to the surgery contamination degree; patient with surgery clean was defined as no exposed and patient with clean-contaminated or contaminated surgery was defined exposed. Risk factors for infection were classified as: inherent to the patient, pre-operative, intra-operative and post-operative. Statistical analysis; we realized Student t or Mann-Whitney U, chi square for Relative Risk (RR) and multivariate analysis by Cox proportional hazards. Were monitored up to 30 days after surgery 403 patients (59.8% women), 35 (8.7%) developed surgical site infections. The factors associated in multivariate analysis were: smoking, RR of 3.21, underweight 3.4 hand washing unsuitable techniques 4.61, transfusion during the procedure 3.22, contaminated surgery 60, and intensive care stay 8 to 14 days 11.64, permanence of 1 to 3 days 2.4 and use of catheter 1 to 3 days 2.27. To avoid all risk factors is almost impossible; therefore close monitoring of elective surgery patients can prevent infectious complications.

  19. Are all risks equal? Early experiences of poverty-related risk and children's functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Amanda L; Raver, C Cybele

    2014-06-01

    Using cumulative risk and latent class analysis (LCA) models, we examined how exposure to deep poverty (income-to-needs ratio risks (i.e., single-parent household, residential crowding, caregiver depression, and multiple life stressors) in preschool is related to children's future difficulty in school in a longitudinal sample of 602 Head Start-enrolled, low-income families. Results from the LCA revealed 4 risk profiles: low risk, deep poverty and single, single and stressed, and deep poverty and crowded household. Tests of measurement invariance across racial/ethnic groups established that, although patterns of risk are similar across groups (i.e., risks covary in the same way), the prevalence of risk profiles differs. African American families were overrepresented in the "deep poverty and single" profile while Latino and White families were overrepresented in the "deep poverty and crowded" profile. Finally, children's third grade functioning in 3 domains (i.e., academic performance, behavior problems, and self-regulatory skills) was predicted using a cumulative risk index and LCA-identified risk profiles. Both approaches demonstrated that children who experienced higher levels of risk in preschool had worse school performance than children with low levels of risk. However, LCA also revealed that children who experienced "single and stressed" family settings had more behavior problems than low-risk children while children who experienced "deep poverty and crowded" family settings had worse academic performance. The results indicate that all risks are not equal for children's development and highlight the utility of LCA for tailoring intervention efforts to best meet the needs of target populations. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved

  20. Food for thought - Communicating food-related risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sturloni Giancarlo

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last few years, a continuous series of food alerts have caught the attention of the media and the public in Europe. First, eggs and pork contaminated with dioxins; then, “mad cow” disease, while, all along in the background, a battle against genetically modified plants has been in progress. These food alerts have had complex repercussions on the perception of risks associated with food production. Experts have often been divided over these issues, and the uncertainty of scientific data has been indicated on more than one occasion as one of the factors that influence risk perception. However, the most important factor seems to be undoubtedly the way in which the risk has been communicated (or not communicated to the public. Therefore, risk communication analysis offers an excellent opportunity to understand the profound changes that are taking place in relations among the scientific community, mass media and other members of civil society now that they are fully aware that scientific and technological innovation, the real driving force of modern industrial society, is a source of development but also a source of risks which are not always acceptable. Within this different context, a debate open to all interested parties appears to have become a dire necessity for the “risk society”, especially as far as food is concerned because food has extremely important psychological, ethical and cultural values.

  1. Explanatory risk factors in the relations between schizotypy and indicators of suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahn, Danielle R; DeVylder, Jordan E; Hilimire, Matthew R

    2016-04-30

    Schizotypy has been linked to suicide risk, but it is not known whether established suicide-related risk factors mediate this relation. The aim of this study was to assess the mediating effects of depressive symptoms, social anxiety, self-esteem, and intimate disclosure in peer relationships in the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. This aim was tested in 590 young adults using a nonparametric bootstrapping procedure. After inclusion of the mediators, interpersonal schizotypy was no longer directly associated with either suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. Depression and self-esteem mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation. No variables mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and lifetime suicide attempts, and there were no significant direct relations when mediators were included. Schizotypy appears to be a distal risk factor for suicidal behavior; assessing depressive symptoms and self-esteem may provide more proximal information about suicide risk, and may be targets for mitigating suicide risk in individuals with schizotypy. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  2. Clinical risk factors for age-related macular degeneration: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evans Christopher

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Age-related macular degeneration (AMD is the leading cause of blindness in Western countries. Numerous risk factors have been reported but the evidence and strength of association is variable. We aimed to identify those risk factors with strong levels of evidence which could be easily assessed by physicians or ophthalmologists to implement preventive interventions or address current behaviours. Methods A systematic review identified 18 prospective and cross-sectional studies and 6 case control studies involving 113,780 persons with 17,236 cases of late AMD that included an estimate of the association between late AMD and at least one of 16 pre-selected risk factors. Fixed-effects meta-analyses were conducted for each factor to combine odds ratio (OR and/or relative risk (RR outcomes across studies by study design. Overall raw point estimates of each risk factor and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated. Results Increasing age, current cigarette smoking, previous cataract surgery, and a family history of AMD showed strong and consistent associations with late AMD. Risk factors with moderate and consistent associations were higher body mass index, history of cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and higher plasma fibrinogen. Risk factors with weaker and inconsistent associations were gender, ethnicity, diabetes, iris colour, history of cerebrovascular disease, and serum total and HDL cholesterol and triglyceride levels. Conclusions Smoking, previous cataract surgery and a family history of AMD are consistent risk factors for AMD. Cardiovascular risk factors are also associated with AMD. Knowledge of these risk factors that may be easily assessed by physicians and general ophthalmologists may assist in identification and appropriate referral of persons at risk of AMD.

  3. Analyses of natural resources in 10 CFR Part 60 as related to inadvertent human intrusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miklas, M.P.; Lefevre, H.E.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the intent of the regulatory language of the portions of 10 CFR Part 60 which deal with considerations of the natural resources of a proposed geologic repository for high-level radioactive wastes as they relate to inadvertent human intrusion. Four Potentially Adverse Conditions (PAC) the requirements of 10 CFR 60.21(c)(13) are shown to be related to natural resources. Groundwater is identified as a natural resource known to be present at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. For economic considerations of natural resources, the open-quotes foreseeable futureclose quotes is thought to be no more than 50 years. Two of the topics addressed by the PACs, subsurface mining and drilling at a proposed repository site, are pre-site-characterization activities which must be evaluated in the context of repository performance criteria set by the US EPA standard, 40 CFR Part 191. An alternative US DOE compliance demonstration to another PAC, 10 CFR 60.122(c)(17), might be to use an open-quotes explorationist perspectiveclose quotes of natural resource assessment. The Commission intends for DOE to evaluate the likelihood and consequence of inadvertent human intrusion into a geologic repository as a result of exploration or exploitation of natural resources within or near a proposed high-level radioactive waste geologic repository

  4. Exploiting Semantic Search Methodologies to Analyse Fast Nuclear Reactor Nuclear Related Information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costantini, L.

    2016-01-01

    Full text: This paper describes an experiment to evaluate the outcomes of using the semantic search engine together with the entity extraction approach and the visualisation tools in large set of nuclear data related to fast nuclear reactors (FNR) documents originated from INIS database and the IAEA web publication. The INIS database has been used because is the larger collection of nuclear related data and a sub-set of it can be utilised to verify the efficiency and the effectiveness of this approach. In a nutshell, the goal of the study was to: 1) find and monitor documents dealing with FNR; 2) building knowledge base (KB) according to the FNR nuclear components and populate the KB with relevant documents; 3) communicate the conclusion of the analysis by utilising visualisation tools. The semantic search engine used in the case study has the capability to perform what is called evidential reasoning: accruing, weighing and evaluating the evidence to determinate a mathematical score for each article that measures its relevance to the subject of interest. This approach provides a means to differentiate between articles that closely meet the search criteria versus those less relevant articles. Tovek software platform was chosen for this case study. (author

  5. Aerobic exercise reduces biomarkers related to cardiovascular risk among cleaners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korshøj, Mette; Ravn, Marie Højbjerg; Holtermann, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: Blue-collar workers have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Accordingly, elevated levels of biomarkers related to risk of cardiovascular disease, such as high-sensitive C-reactive protein, have been observed among blue-collar workers. The objective was to examine whether...... an aerobic exercise worksite intervention changes the level of inflammation biomarkers among cleaners. METHODS: The design was a cluster-randomized controlled trial with 4-month worksite intervention. Before the 116 cleaners aged 18-65 years were randomized, they signed an informed consent form...

  6. Comprehensive review of genetic association studies and meta-analyses on miRNA polymorphisms and cancer risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kshitij Srivastava

    Full Text Available MicroRNAs (miRNAs are small RNA molecules that regulate the expression of corresponding messenger RNAs (mRNAs. Variations in the level of expression of distinct miRNAs have been observed in the genesis, progression and prognosis of multiple human malignancies. The present study was aimed to investigate the association between four highly studied miRNA polymorphisms (mir-146a rs2910164, mir-196a2 rs11614913, mir-149 rs2292832 and mir-499 rs3746444 and cancer risk by using a two-sided meta-analytic approach.An updated meta-analysis based on 53 independent case-control studies consisting of 27573 cancer cases and 34791 controls was performed. Odds ratio (OR and 95% confidence interval (95% CI were used to investigate the strength of the association.Overall, the pooled analysis showed that mir-196a2 rs11614913 was associated with a decreased cancer risk (OR = 0.846, P = 0.004, TT vs. CC while other miRNA SNPs showed no association with overall cancer risk. Subgroup analyses based on type of cancer and ethnicity were also performed, and results indicated that there was a strong association between miR-146a rs2910164 and overall cancer risk in Caucasian population under recessive model (OR = 1.274, 95%CI = 1.096-1.481, P = 0.002. Stratified analysis by cancer type also associated mir-196a2 rs11614913 with lung and colorectal cancer at allelic and genotypic level.The present meta-analysis suggests an important role of mir-196a2 rs11614913 polymorphism with overall cancer risk especially in Asian population. Further studies with large sample size are needed to evaluate and confirm this association.

  7. Application of energy dispersive XRF-spectrometry to analyse nutritional elements in relation to cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hota, P.K.; Vijayan, V.; Singh, L.P.

    2001-01-01

    Food is the principal media for intake of elements from environment to human body. Thus, it is felt important to determine the daily dietary intake of such elements in the field of toxicity and nutrition, the deficiency or sufficiency of which may lead to various diseases, disorders and allergies in human health. In this study, the elements present in commonly used cereals, pulses, noodles, some condiments/spices, tobacco products, some common leaves used in herbal medicine and tea leaves have been analyzed using EDXRF spectrometry technique. Elemental concentrations of K, Ca, Fe, Sr, Mn, Zn, Cu, Pb, As and Se are detected and quantified in all the samples using this method. The results are discussed in relation to cancer. (author)

  8. CLASSIFICATION OF TRAFFIC RELATED SHORT TEXTS TO ANALYSE ROAD PROBLEMS IN URBAN AREAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. M. Saldana-Perez

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Volunteer Geographic Information (VGI can be used to understand the urban dynamics. In the classification of traffic related short texts to analyze road problems in urban areas, a VGI data analysis is done over a social media’s publications, in order to classify traffic events at big cities that modify the movement of vehicles and people through the roads, such as car accidents, traffic and closures. The classification of traffic events described in short texts is done by applying a supervised machine learning algorithm. In the approach users are considered as sensors which describe their surroundings and provide their geographic position at the social network. The posts are treated by a text mining process and classified into five groups. Finally, the classified events are grouped in a data corpus and geo-visualized in the study area, to detect the places with more vehicular problems.

  9. Classification of Traffic Related Short Texts to Analyse Road Problems in Urban Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saldana-Perez, A. M. M.; Moreno-Ibarra, M.; Tores-Ruiz, M.

    2017-09-01

    The Volunteer Geographic Information (VGI) can be used to understand the urban dynamics. In the classification of traffic related short texts to analyze road problems in urban areas, a VGI data analysis is done over a social media's publications, in order to classify traffic events at big cities that modify the movement of vehicles and people through the roads, such as car accidents, traffic and closures. The classification of traffic events described in short texts is done by applying a supervised machine learning algorithm. In the approach users are considered as sensors which describe their surroundings and provide their geographic position at the social network. The posts are treated by a text mining process and classified into five groups. Finally, the classified events are grouped in a data corpus and geo-visualized in the study area, to detect the places with more vehicular problems.

  10. Grey Relational Analyses for Multi-Objective Optimization of Turning S45C Carbon Steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, A.H.A.; Azmi, A.I.; Khalil, A.N.M.

    2016-01-01

    The optimization of performance characteristics in turning process can be achieved through selection of proper machining parameters. It is well known that many researchers have successfully reported the optimization of single performance characteristic. Nevertheless, the multi-objective optimization can be difficult and challenging to be studied due to its complexity in analysis. This is because an improvement of one performance characteristic may lead to degradation of other performance characteristic. As a result, the study of multi-objective optimization in CNC turning of S45C carbon steel has been attempted in this paper through Taguchi and Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) method. Through this methodology, the multiple performance characteristics, namely; surface roughness, material removal rate (MRR), tool wear, and power consumption; can be optimized simultaneously. It appears from the experimental results that the multiple performance characteristics in CNC turning was achieved and improved through the methodology employed. (paper)

  11. Sensorisk analyse i relation til markedsorientret produktudvikling af fødevarer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech, Anne C.; Juhl, Hans Jørn; Kristensen, Kai

    1995-01-01

    as follows: "From a scientific/technical point of view there is a need for complete knowledge of the sensory qualities of a product and for a wider understanding of the ultimate consumer in relation to prod acceptance, product optimisation and product satisfaction." This wide formulation of the aim thus...... are influenced by the processes and ingredients used which again are process dependent. On the consumer side product requirements are also influenced by a number of factors. Last but not least it is important to realize that the process is a dynamic one. Consumers develop other or new demands just as new...... that the aim of sensory analysis is determined before choosing the method. In general three categories of sensory analysis methods are used, namely the discriminant test, the descriptive test and the affective test. 3. Discriminant tests are usually performed with a trained panel and with the purpose...

  12. Relative conservatisms of combination methods used in response spectrum analyses of nuclear piping systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, S.; Kustu, O.; Jhaveri, D.P.; Blume, J.A.

    1983-01-01

    The paper presents the conclusions of a comprehensive study that investigated the relative conservatisms represented by various combination techniques. Two approaches were taken for the study, producing mutually consistent results. In the first, 20 representative nuclear piping systems were systematically analyzed using the response spectrum method. The total response was obtained using nine different combination methods. One procedure, using the SRSS method for combining spatial components of response and the 10% method for combining the responses of different modes (which is currently acceptable to the U.S. NRC), was the standard for comparison. Responses computed by the other methods were normalized to this standard method. These response ratios were then used to develop cumulative frequency-distribution curves, which were used to establish the relative conservatism of the methods in a probabilistic sense. In the second approach, 30 single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems that represent different modes of hypothetical piping systems and have natural frequencies varying from 1 Hz to 30 Hz, were analyzed for 276 sets of three-component recorded ground motion. A set of hypothetical systems assuming a variety of modes and frequency ranges was developed. The responses of these systems were computed from the responses of the SDOF systems by combining the spatial response components by algebraic summation and the individual mode responses by the Navy method, or combining both spatial and modal response components using the SRSS method. Probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions were developed for the ratio of the responses obtained by both methods. (orig./HP)

  13. Issues Related to the Frequency of Exploratory Analyses by Evidence Review Groups in the NICE Single Technology Appraisal Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaltenthaler, Eva; Carroll, Christopher; Hill-McManus, Daniel; Scope, Alison; Holmes, Michael; Rice, Stephen; Rose, Micah; Tappenden, Paul; Woolacott, Nerys

    2017-06-01

    Evidence Review Groups (ERGs) critically appraise company submissions as part of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Single Technology Appraisal (STA) process. As part of their critique of the evidence submitted by companies, the ERGs undertake exploratory analyses to explore uncertainties in the company's model. The aim of this study was to explore pre-defined factors that might influence or predict the extent of ERG exploratory analyses. The aim of this study was to explore predefined factors that might influence or predict the extent of ERG exploratory analyses. We undertook content analysis of over 400 documents, including ERG reports and related documentation for the 100 most recent STAs (2009-2014) for which guidance has been published. Relevant data were extracted from the documents and narrative synthesis was used to summarise the extracted data. All data were extracted and checked by two researchers. Forty different companies submitted documents as part of the NICE STA process. The most common disease area covered by the STAs was cancer (44%), and most ERG reports (n = 93) contained at least one exploratory analysis. The incidence and frequency of ERG exploratory analyses does not appear to be related to any developments in the appraisal process, the disease area covered by the STA, or the company's base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). However, there does appear to be a pattern in the mean number of analyses conducted by particular ERGs, but the reasons for this are unclear and potentially complex. No clear patterns were identified regarding the presence or frequency of exploratory analyses, apart from the mean number conducted by individual ERGs. More research is needed to understand this relationship.

  14. Sexual orientation disparities in cancer-related risk behaviors of tobacco, alcohol, sexual behaviors, and diet and physical activity: pooled Youth Risk Behavior Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosario, Margaret; Corliss, Heather L; Everett, Bethany G; Reisner, Sari L; Austin, S Bryn; Buchting, Francisco O; Birkett, Michelle

    2014-02-01

    We examined sexual orientation disparities in cancer-related risk behaviors among adolescents. We pooled data from the 2005 and 2007 Youth Risk Behavior Surveys. We classified youths with any same-sex orientation as sexual minority and the remainder as heterosexual. We compared the groups on risk behaviors and stratified by gender, age ( 14 years), and race/ethnicity. Sexual minorities (7.6% of the sample) reported more risk behaviors than heterosexuals for all 12 behaviors (mean = 5.3 vs 3.8; P sexual orientation disparities in analyses by gender, followed by age, and then race/ethnicity; they persisted in analyses by gender, age, and race/ethnicity, although findings were nuanced. Data on cancer risk, morbidity, and mortality by sexual orientation are needed to track the potential but unknown burden of cancer among sexual minorities.

  15. Relative Risk Appraisal, the September 11 Attacks, and Terrorism-Related Fears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Randall D.; Bryant, Richard A.; Amsel, Lawrence; Suh, Eun Jung; Cook, Joan M.; Neria, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    There are now replicated findings that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms related to the September 11, 2001, attacks occurred in large numbers of persons who did not fit the traditional definition of exposure to a traumatic event. These data are not explained by traditional epidemiologic “bull’s eye” disaster models, which assume the psychological effects are narrowly, geographically circumscribed, or by existing models of PTSD onset. In this article, the authors develop a researchable model to explain these and other terrorism-related phenomena by synthesizing research and concepts from the cognitive science, risk appraisal, traumatic stress, and anxiety disorders literatures. They propose the new term relative risk appraisal to capture the psychological function that is the missing link between the event and subjective response in these and other terrorism-related studies to date. Relative risk appraisal highlights the core notion from cognitive science that human perception is an active, multidimensional process, such that for unpredictable societal threats, proximity to the event is only one of several factors that influence behavioral responses. Addressing distortions in relative risk appraisal effectively could reduce individual and societal vulnerability to a wide range of adverse economic and ethnopolitical consequences to terrorist attacks. The authors present ways in which these concepts and related techniques can be helpful in treating persons with September 11– or terrorism-related distress or psychopathology. PMID:17516775

  16. Assessing residential building values in Spain for risk analyses - application to the landslide hazard in the Autonomous Community of Valencia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantarino, I.; Torrijo, F. J.; Palencia, S.; Gielen, E.

    2014-11-01

    This paper proposes a method of valuing the stock of residential buildings in Spain as the first step in assessing possible damage caused to them by natural hazards. For the purposes of the study we had access to the SIOSE (the Spanish Land Use and Cover Information System), a high-resolution land-use model, as well as to a report on the financial valuations of this type of building throughout Spain. Using dasymetric disaggregation processes and GIS techniques we developed a geolocalized method of obtaining this information, which was the exposure variable in the general risk assessment formula. Then, with the application over a hazard map, the risk value can be easily obtained. An example of its application is given in a case study that assesses the risk of a landslide in the entire 23 200 km2 of the Valencia Autonomous Community (NUT2), the results of which are analysed by municipal areas (LAU2) for the years 2005 and 2009.

  17. MicroRNA Related Polymorphisms and Breast Cancer Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki

    2014-01-01

    Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer....... We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41......,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated...

  18. Risk Factors and Biomarkers of Age-Related Macular Degeneration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Nathan G.; Singh, Malkit K.; ElShelmani, Hanan; Mansergh, Fiona C.; Wride, Michael A.; Padilla, Maximilian; Keegan, David; Hogg, Ruth E.; Ambati, Balamurali K.

    2016-01-01

    A biomarker can be a substance or structure measured in body parts, fluids or products that can affect or predict disease incidence. As age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in the developed world, much research and effort has been invested in the identification of different biomarkers to predict disease incidence, identify at risk individuals, elucidate causative pathophysiological etiologies, guide screening, monitoring and treatment parameters, and predict disease outcomes. To date, a host of genetic, environmental, proteomic, and cellular targets have been identified as both risk factors and potential biomarkers for AMD. Despite this, their use has been confined to research settings and has not yet crossed into the clinical arena. A greater understanding of these factors and their use as potential biomarkers for AMD can guide future research and clinical practice. This article will discuss known risk factors and novel, potential biomarkers of AMD in addition to their application in both academic and clinical settings. PMID:27156982

  19. [Identification of risk factors in relatives of type-2 diabetics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuevas-Alvarez, Norma Angélica; Vela-Otero, Yolanda; Carrada-Brav, Teodoro

    2006-01-01

    To identify risk factors and warning signs in a sample of first-degree relatives of type-2 diabetics at the Family Medicine Unit 2 of the General Hospital in Irapuato, Guanajuato, Mexico. In a non-probabilistic sample of 360 relatives, a 14-item questionnaire was applied to measure abdominal perimeter and body mass index (obesity and overweight), eating habits, addictions and sedentarism. The questionnaire was made by general consent of experts, by applying Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient. Specific rates of prevalence by sex and age groups were estimated. 233 (65%) relatives were females. As part of their family history background, arterial hypertension was recorded in 263 (73%) and acute myocardial infarction in 97 (27%). Among the dangerous food for health consumed by the relatives of diabetics are cola drinks in 94.7%, red meat in 83%, candies in 74.7% and chips in 65.8%; only half of them consumed fresh fruits and vegetables; a quarter of them ate prickly pears or whole wheat bread. There were 163 (45.3%) persons with high-risk abdominal perimeter, and sedentarism was present in 267 (74.2%). However, obesity was 3 times more frequent in females, but excessive drinking or smoking habits were 7 times more prevailing in males. A high-risk behavior was demonstrated among relativies of diabetic patients. Therefore, a public-health educational program is required to modify risky habits. A change towards prevention rather than cure is much needed in health staff.

  20. Analyses of the studies on cancer-related quality of life published in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Eun Hyun; Park, Hee Boong; Kim, Myung Wook; Kang, Sung Hee; Chun, Mi Son; Lee, Hye Jin; Lee, Won Hee

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to analyze and evaluate prior studies published in Korea on the cancer-related quality of life, in order to make recommendations for further research. A total of 31 studies were selected from three different databases. The selected studies were analyzed according to 11 criteria, such as site of cancer, domain, independent variable, research design, self/proxy rating, single/battery instrument, translation/back translation, reliability, validity, scoring, and findings. Of the 31 studies, approximately half of them were conducted using a mixed cancer group of patient. Many of the studies asserted that the concept of quality of life had a multidimensional attribute. Approximately 30% were longitudinal design studies giving information about the changes in quality of life. In all studies, except one, patients directly rated their level of quality of life. With respect to the questionnaires used for measuring the quality of life, most studies did not consider whether or not their reliability and validity had been established. In addition, when using questionnaires developed in other languages, no studies employed a translation/back-translation technique. All studies used sum or total scoring methods when calculating the level of quality of life. The types of variables tested for their influence on quality of life were quite limited. It is recommended that longitudinal design studies be performed, using methods of data collection whose validity and reliability has been confirmed, and that studies be conducted to identify new variables having an influence on the quality of life

  1. AIDS Risk Perception and its related factors in Women with High-Risk Behaviors in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahin Tafazoli

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background & aim: AIDS is one of the major public health challenges all over the world. Perceived risk is a significant predictor of high-risk behaviors related to AIDS. Women constitute more than half of the HIV patients, and the rate of female sex workers with AIDS is more than the rest of female population. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate AIDS risk perception and its related factors in females with high-risk behaviors in Mashhad, Iran. Methods:This descriptive study was performed on 58 women who were arrested on prostitution charges and imprisoned in Mashhad Vakil Abad Prison in 2013. The data were collected using self-designed questionnaires assessing knowledge regarding AIDS as well as sexual activities and also perceived risk of HIV questionnaire. One-way ANOVA, independent samples t-test, linear regression, and Chi-square tests were run, using SPSS version 16. Results: The mean score of HIV risk perception was 18.43±5.92, which was average. There was a significant relationship between the mean score of perceived risk of HIV and knowledge regarding AIDS (P=0.005, alcohol consumption (P=0.04, history of addiction (P=0.008, using contraceptive methods (P=0.01, condom use during intercourse (P=0.02, voluntary HIV testing (P=0.001, and follow-up of HIV test (P=0.009. Conclusion:The findings of the present study revealed that knowledge, alcohol consumption, history of addiction, contraceptive methods, the rate of condom use during intercourse, as well as voluntary HIV testing and follow-up were associated with perceived risk of HIV infection. Therefore, taking the necessary steps towards health promotion through appropriate training and interventional approaches seems to be mandatory for reducing high-risk behaviors in populations with low risk perception.

  2. Risk factors of age-related macular degeneration in Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Eugenia Nano

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSES: To assess the risk factors of age-related macular degeneration in Argentina using a case-control study. METHODS: Surveys were used for subjects' antioxidant intake, age/gender, race, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes (and type of treatment, smoking, sunlight exposure, red meat consumption, fish consumption, presence of age-related macular degeneration and family history of age-related macular degeneration. Main effects models for logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression were used to analyze the results. RESULTS: There were 175 cases and 175 controls with a mean age of 75.4 years and 75.5 years, respectively, of whom 236 (67.4% were female. Of the cases with age-related macular degeneration, 159 (45.4% had age-related macular degeneration in their left eyes, 154 (44.0% in their right eyes, and 138 (39.4% in both eyes. Of the cases with age-related macular degeneration in their left eyes, 47.8% had the dry type, 40.3% had the wet type, and the type was unknown for 11.9%. The comparable figures for right eyes were: 51.9%, 34.4%, and 13.7%, respectively. The main effects model was dominated by higher sunlight exposure (OR [odds ratio]: 3.3 and a family history of age-related macular degeneration (OR: 4.3. Other factors included hypertension (OR: 2.1, smoking (OR: 2.2, and being of the Mestizo race, which lowered the risk of age-related macular degeneration (OR: 0.40. Red meat/fish consumption, body mass index, and iris color did not have an effect. Higher age was associated with progression to more severe age-related macular degeneration. CONCLUSION: Sunlight exposure, family history of age-related macular degeneration, and an older age were the significant risk factors. There may be other variables, as the risk was not explained very well by the existing factors. A larger sample may produce different and better results.

  3. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trine Madsen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

  4. Health risks associated with biogas. Assessment of health risks related to the injection of biogas into the natural gas network. Affset opinion. Collective expertise report. Final version

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    JAEG, Jean-Philippe; Bajeat, Philippe; Wenisch, Sandrine; Bellenfant, Gael; Godon, Jean-Jacques; Keck, Gerard; Lattes, Armand; Moletta-Denat, Marina; Naja, Ghinwa; Ramalho, Olivier; Zdanevitch, Isabelle; ALARY, Rene; RAMEL, Martine

    2008-10-01

    This publication reports a study which aimed at acquiring and analysing available bibliographical data regarding risks associated with the exposure to toxic compounds in relationship with the injection of biogas into the natural gas network, at characterising biogas composition and notably their content in potentially toxic compounds with respect to the currently distributed natural gas, at assessing health risks related to the exposure to toxic agents before and after combustion, also with respect to the currently distributed natural gas, and, based on this risk assessment, at determining biogas composition characteristics. Thus, after a presentation of the context, scope and modalities of this study, the report proposes an overview of various contextual aspects related to biogas (interest, production means, purification processes, valorisation, injection processes), the report discusses chemical risks related to biogas: bibliographical study, biogas chemical composition, chemical composition of biogas combustion residues. It also discusses microbiological risks. Several appendices are provided

  5. Analysis of related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-Song Yu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To explore the related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy to provide a theoretical evidence for effectively preventing the occurrence of pancreatic fistula. Methods: A total of 100 patients who were admitted in our hospital from January, 2012 to January, 2015 and had performed pancreaticoduodenectomy were included in the study. The related risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula were collected for single factor and Logistic multi-factor analysis. Results: Among the included patients, 16 had pancreatic fistula, and the total occurrence rate was 16% (16/100. The single-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, preoperative bilirubin, pancreatic texture, pancreatic duct diameter, intraoperative amount of bleeding, postoperative hemoglobin, and application of somatostatin after operation were the risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (P<0.05. The multi-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin were the dependent risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (OR=4.162, 6.104, 5.613, 4.034, P<0.05. Conclusions: The occurrence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy is closely associated with the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin; therefore, effective measures should be taken to reduce the occurrence of pancreatic fistula according to the patients’ own conditions.

  6. Young people's perspectives on health-related risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace Elisabeth Spencer

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Drawing upon current socio-cultural understandings of risk, this study highlights the disjunction between the expert risk discourses that permeate official public health policy and practice, and young people’s own perspectives on health and risk. Data were collected from young people aged 14-16 years through the use of group and individual interviews in a school and community youth centre setting. Findings from this study question the saliency of expert-defined health-related risks to young people’s everyday lives. Young people in this study saw health as closely linked to ‘being happy’. Friendships and a sense of personal achievement were particularly important to participants’ health and well-being. When accounting for their participation in health-related practices identified as ‘risky’ in government policy – such as smoking, alcohol and substance use – young people emphasised the levels of pressure they experienced. Sources of pressure included arguments and bullying, school work, and negative stereotypes of young people in general. These areas indicated young people’s concerns that reach beyond the official prescriptions permeating current health policy.

  7. Increased relative risk of myelodysplastic syndrome in atomic bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oda, Kenji; Kimura, Akiro; Matsuo, Tatsuki; Tomonaga, Masao; Kodama, Kazunori; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

    1998-01-01

    It was investigated what blood disorders except leukemia increased the relative risk with dose dependency in atomic bomb survivors. Subjects were 217 patients of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, who had blood disorders except leukemia and died between 1950 and 1990. Their medical records were analyzed and their diagnoses were reevaluated. Sixteen cases were diagnosed as the aplastic anemia and 12 as the myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). In the aplastic anemia, there was no correlation between the exposure dose and the mortality. In MDS, the excess relative risk (ERR)/bone marrow exposure dose of 1 Sv was very high (13.0). These results supports the hypothesis that MDS would be broken out by the clonal abnormality of the hematopoietic stem cell and radiation exposure could cause the appearance of the abnormal stem cell clone. (K.H.)

  8. Increased relative risk of myelodysplastic syndrome in atomic bomb survivors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oda, Kenji [Hiroshima City Hospital (Japan); Kimura, Akiro; Matsuo, Tatsuki; Tomonaga, Masao; Kodama, Kazunori; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

    1998-12-01

    It was investigated what blood disorders except leukemia increased the relative risk with dose dependency in atomic bomb survivors. Subjects were 217 patients of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, who had blood disorders except leukemia and died between 1950 and 1990. Their medical records were analyzed and their diagnoses were reevaluated. Sixteen cases were diagnosed as the aplastic anemia and 12 as the myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). In the aplastic anemia, there was no correlation between the exposure dose and the mortality. In MDS, the excess relative risk (ERR)/bone marrow exposure dose of 1 Sv was very high (13.0). These results supports the hypothesis that MDS would be broken out by the clonal abnormality of the hematopoietic stem cell and radiation exposure could cause the appearance of the abnormal stem cell clone. (K.H.)

  9. Update on procedure-related risks for prenatal diagnosis techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tabor, Ann; Alfirevic, Zarko

    2010-01-01

    Introduction: As a consequence of the introduction of effective screening methods, the number of invasive prenatal diagnostic procedures is steadily declining. The aim of this review is to summarize the risks related to these procedures. Material and Methods: Review of the literature. Results: Data...... from randomised controlled trials as well as from systematic reviews and a large national registry study are consistent with a procedure-related miscarriage rate of 0.5-1.0% for amniocentesis as well as for chorionic villus sampling (CVS). In single-center studies performance may be remarkably good due...... not be performed before 15 + 0 weeks' gestation. CVS on the other hand should not be performed before 10 weeks' gestation due to a possible increase in risk of limb reduction defects. Discussion: Experienced operators have a higher success rate and a lower complication rate. The decreasing number of prenatal...

  10. Prospect relativity: how choice options influence decision under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Neil; Chater, Nick; Stott, Henry P; Reimers, Stian

    2003-03-01

    In many theories of decision under risk (e.g., expected utility theory, rank-dependent utility theory, and prospect theory), the utility of a prospect is independent of other options in the choice set. The experiments presented here show a large effect of the available options, suggesting instead that prospects are valued relative to one another. The judged certainty equivalent for a prospect is strongly influenced by the options available. Similarly, the selection of a preferred prospect is strongly influenced by the prospects available. Alternative theories of decision under risk (e.g., the stochastic difference model, multialternative decision field theory, and range frequency theory), where prospects are valued relative to one another, can provide an account of these context effects.

  11. Human Factors Risk Analyses of a Doffing Protocol for Ebola-Level Personal Protective Equipment: Mapping Errors to Contamination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumma, Joel M; Durso, Francis T; Ferguson, Ashley N; Gipson, Christina L; Casanova, Lisa; Erukunuakpor, Kimberly; Kraft, Colleen S; Walsh, Victoria L; Zimring, Craig; DuBose, Jennifer; Jacob, Jesse T

    2018-03-05

    Doffing protocols for personal protective equipment (PPE) are critical for keeping healthcare workers (HCWs) safe during care of patients with Ebola virus disease. We assessed the relationship between errors and self-contamination during doffing. Eleven HCWs experienced with doffing Ebola-level PPE participated in simulations in which HCWs donned PPE marked with surrogate viruses (ɸ6 and MS2), completed a clinical task, and were assessed for contamination after doffing. Simulations were video recorded, and a failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analyses were performed to identify errors during doffing, quantify their risk (risk index), and predict contamination data. Fifty-one types of errors were identified, many having the potential to spread contamination. Hand hygiene and removing the powered air purifying respirator (PAPR) hood had the highest total risk indexes (111 and 70, respectively) and number of types of errors (9 and 13, respectively). ɸ6 was detected on 10% of scrubs and the fault tree predicted a 10.4% contamination rate, likely occurring when the PAPR hood inadvertently contacted scrubs during removal. MS2 was detected on 10% of hands, 20% of scrubs, and 70% of inner gloves and the predicted rates were 7.3%, 19.4%, 73.4%, respectively. Fault trees for MS2 and ɸ6 contamination suggested similar pathways. Ebola-level PPE can both protect and put HCWs at risk for self-contamination throughout the doffing process, even among experienced HCWs doffing with a trained observer. Human factors methodologies can identify error-prone steps, delineate the relationship between errors and self-contamination, and suggest remediation strategies.

  12. Risk- and cost-benefit analyses of breast screening programs derived from absorbed dose measurements in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuur, C.; Broerse, J.J.

    1985-01-01

    Risk- and cost benefit analyses for breast screening programs are being performed, employing the risk-factors for induction of breast cancer from six extensive follow-up studies. For women of the age group above 35 years and for a risk period of 30 years after a 10-year latency period, a factor of extra cases of 20 x 10 -6 mGy -1 can be estimated. Measurements are being performed in Dutch hospitals to determine the mean absorbed tissue dose. These doses vary from 0.6 to 4.4 mGy per radiography. For a dose of 1 mGy per radiograph and yearly screening of women between 35 and 75 years, the risk of radiogenic breast cancer is about 1% of the natural incidence (85,000 per 10 6 women) in this group. A recommended frequency of screening has to be based on medical, social and financial considerations. The gain in woman years and in completely cured women is being estimated for screening with intervals of 12 instead of 24 months. The medical and social benefit is 1,520 years life-time and 69 more cases completely cured per 1,000 breast cancer patients. The financial profit of a completely cured instead of an ultimately fatal cancer can be roughly estimated at 55,000 guilders. In addition the costs per gained woman-year are about 5,000 guilders. In consequence, the extra costs of annual additional rounds of mammographic screening are balanced by the benefit. (Auth.)

  13. Deployment-related risk factors of low back pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nissen, Lars Ravnborg; Marott, Jacob Louis; Gyntelberg, Finn

    2014-01-01

    Where much is known about the consequences of spinal and low back pain (LBP) during military deployments, there is lesser knowledge of risk factors for LBP among the deployed forces. The objective of this study was to identify deployment-related exposures associated with LBP. The study was a ques...... their subordinates and involve medical personnel, especially deployed physiotherapists, by giving advice to soldiers of different military occupational specialties on how to optimize ergonomics at work....

  14. Some computer simulations based on the linear relative risk model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1991-10-01

    This report presents the results of computer simulations designed to evaluate and compare the performance of the likelihood ratio statistic and the score statistic for making inferences about the linear relative risk mode. The work was motivated by data on workers exposed to low doses of radiation, and the report includes illustration of several procedures for obtaining confidence limits for the excess relative risk coefficient based on data from three studies of nuclear workers. The computer simulations indicate that with small sample sizes and highly skewed dose distributions, asymptotic approximations to the score statistic or to the likelihood ratio statistic may not be adequate. For testing the null hypothesis that the excess relative risk is equal to zero, the asymptotic approximation to the likelihood ratio statistic was adequate, but use of the asymptotic approximation to the score statistic rejected the null hypothesis too often. Frequently the likelihood was maximized at the lower constraint, and when this occurred, the asymptotic approximations for the likelihood ratio and score statistics did not perform well in obtaining upper confidence limits. The score statistic and likelihood ratio statistics were found to perform comparably in terms of power and width of the confidence limits. It is recommended that with modest sample sizes, confidence limits be obtained using computer simulations based on the score statistic. Although nuclear worker studies are emphasized in this report, its results are relevant for any study investigating linear dose-response functions with highly skewed exposure distributions. 22 refs., 14 tabs

  15. Apparently conclusive meta-analyses may be inconclusive--Trial sequential analysis adjustment of random error risk due to repetitive testing of accumulating data in apparently conclusive neonatal meta-analyses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brok, Jesper; Thorlund, Kristian; Wetterslev, Jørn

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Random error may cause misleading evidence in meta-analyses. The required number of participants in a meta-analysis (i.e. information size) should be at least as large as an adequately powered single trial. Trial sequential analysis (TSA) may reduce risk of random errors due to repeti......BACKGROUND: Random error may cause misleading evidence in meta-analyses. The required number of participants in a meta-analysis (i.e. information size) should be at least as large as an adequately powered single trial. Trial sequential analysis (TSA) may reduce risk of random errors due...

  16. Modelling the genetic risk in age-related macular degeneration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Grassmann

    Full Text Available Late-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD is a common sight-threatening disease of the central retina affecting approximately 1 in 30 Caucasians. Besides age and smoking, genetic variants from several gene loci have reproducibly been associated with this condition and likely explain a large proportion of disease. Here, we developed a genetic risk score (GRS for AMD based on 13 risk variants from eight gene loci. The model exhibited good discriminative accuracy, area-under-curve (AUC of the receiver-operating characteristic of 0.820, which was confirmed in a cross-validation approach. Noteworthy, younger AMD patients aged below 75 had a significantly higher mean GRS (1.87, 95% CI: 1.69-2.05 than patients aged 75 and above (1.45, 95% CI: 1.36-1.54. Based on five equally sized GRS intervals, we present a risk classification with a relative AMD risk of 64.0 (95% CI: 14.11-1131.96 for individuals in the highest category (GRS 3.44-5.18, 0.5% of the general population compared to subjects with the most common genetic background (GRS -0.05-1.70, 40.2% of general population. The highest GRS category identifies AMD patients with a sensitivity of 7.9% and a specificity of 99.9% when compared to the four lower categories. Modeling a general population around 85 years of age, 87.4% of individuals in the highest GRS category would be expected to develop AMD by that age. In contrast, only 2.2% of individuals in the two lowest GRS categories which represent almost 50% of the general population are expected to manifest AMD. Our findings underscore the large proportion of AMD cases explained by genetics particularly for younger AMD patients. The five-category risk classification could be useful for therapeutic stratification or for diagnostic testing purposes once preventive treatment is available.

  17. Contributing risk factors for orthopedic device related infections in sina hospital, tehran, iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadadi, A; Zehtab, M J; Babagolzadeh, H; Ashraf, H

    2011-02-01

    In spite of decreasing incidence of orthopedic device-related infections to 1%, nowadays, device-related infection still remains a diagnostic, therapeutic and cost-related problem. The objective of this study is to evaluate the contributing risk factors for orthopedic device-related infections in Sina Hospital, Tehran, Iran. Three hundred and thirty patients who underwent orthopedic device implantation from 2002-2006 were enrolled; among them, 110 patients were complicated with infection. Descriptive and logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the risk factors for device related infections. Patients with infection were older compared to those without infection. The Staphylococcus aureus was the commonest organism. A correlation was observed between wound infection and external fixation, an underlying health condition, and addiction which were independent risk factors for a device related infection. Orthopedic device-related infection puts a great financial burden on patients and hospital resources and could lead to morbidity and mortality in patients. So, appropriate pre and postoperative wound care for dirty wounds, especially when external fixators are used, and in patients with poor conditions or addiction should be done with more caution.

  18. Digging the pupfish out of its hole: risk analyses to guide harvest of Devils Hole pupfish for captive breeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven R. Beissinger

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The Devils Hole pupfish is restricted to one wild population in a single aquifer-fed thermal pool in the Desert National Wildlife Refuge Complex. Since 1995 the pupfish has been in a nearly steady decline, where it was perched on the brink of extinction at 35–68 fish in 2013. A major strategy for conserving the pupfish has been the establishment of additional captive or “refuge” populations, but all ended in failure. In 2013 a new captive propagation facility designed specifically to breed pupfish was opened. I examine how a captive population can be initiated by removing fish from the wild without unduly accelerating extinction risk for the pupfish in Devils Hole. I construct a count-based PVA model, parameterized from estimates of the intrinsic rate of increase and its variance using counts in spring and fall from 1995–2013, to produce the first risk assessment for the pupfish. Median time to extinction was 26 and 27 years from spring and fall counts, respectively, and the probability of extinction in 20 years was 26–33%. Removing individuals in the fall had less risk to the wild population than harvest in spring. For both spring and fall harvest, risk increased rapidly when levels exceeded six adult pupfish per year for three years. Extinction risk was unaffected by the apportionment of total harvest among years. A demographic model was used to examine how removal of different stage classes affects the dynamics of the wild population based on reproductive value (RV and elasticity. Removing eggs had the least impact on the pupfish in Devils Hole; RV of an adult was roughly 25 times that of an egg. To evaluate when it might be prudent to remove all pupfish from Devils Hole for captive breeding, I used the count-based model to examine how extinction risk related to pupfish population size. Risk accelerated when initial populations were less than 30 individuals. Results are discussed in relation to the challenges facing pupfish recovery

  19. L’économie du travail commonsienne : l’analyse transactionnelle de la relation salariale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylvie Morel

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available La théorie institutionnaliste de John R. Commons est un cadre d’analyse économique permettant de conceptualiser de façon inédite l’économie du travail. Cet article présente une réflexion exploratoire sur les pistes de recherche qu’une telle conceptualisation pourrait suivre. Notre analyse se déroule en deux temps. Nous expliquons, tout d’abord, la prééminence que revêt, dans le cadre d’analyse commonsien, le concept d’institution en tant que théorie de l’action instituée. Nous identifions ensuite quelques éléments fondamentaux d’une « économie du travail commonsienne » qui forment une « analyse transactionnelle de la relation salariale ».J. R. Commons’s institutionalist theory provides an analytical economic framework as a new way of conceptualizing labor economics. This paper presents exploratory reflections on research avenues that such a conceptualization could follow. Our analysis proceeds in two stages. First, we explain the centrality of the concept of institution in the commonsian theoretical framework which amounts to a theory of instituted action. Second, we present the basic features of « commonsian labor economics » which offer a « transactional analysis of the employment relationship. »

  20. Body-mass index and risk of advanced chronic kidney disease: Prospective analyses from a primary care cohort of 1.4 million adults in England.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William G Herrington

    Full Text Available It is uncertain whether being overweight, but not obese, is associated with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD and how the size and shape of associations between body-mass index (BMI and advanced CKD differs among different types of people.We used Clinical Practice Research Datalink records (2000-2014 with linkage to English secondary care and mortality data to identify a prospective cohort with at least one BMI measure. Cox models adjusted for age, sex, smoking and social deprivation and subgroup analyses by diabetes, hypertension and prior cardiovascular disease assessed relationships between BMI and CKD stages 4-5 and end-stage renal disease (ESRD.1,405,016 adults aged 20-79 with mean BMI 27.4kg/m2 (SD 5.6 were followed for 7.5 years. Compared to a BMI of 20 to <25kg/m2, higher BMI was associated with a progressively increased risk of CKD stages 4-5 (hazard ratio 1.34, 95% CI 1.30-1.38 for BMI 25 to <30kg/m2; 1.94, 1.87-2.01 for BMI 30 to <35kg/m2; and 3.10, 2.95-3.25 for BMI ≥35kg/m2. The association between BMI and ESRD was shallower and reversed at low BMI. Current smoking, prior diabetes, hypertension or cardiovascular disease all increased risk of CKD, but the relative strength and shape of BMI-CKD associations, which were generally log-linear above a BMI of 25kg/m2, were similar among those with and without these risk factors. There was direct evidence that being overweight was associated with increased risk of CKD stages 4-5 in these subgroups. Assuming causality, since 2000 an estimated 39% (36-42% of advanced CKD in women and 26% (22-30% in men aged 40-79 resulted from being overweight or obese.This study provides direct evidence that being overweight increases risk of advanced CKD, that being obese substantially increases such risk, and that this remains true for those with and without diabetes, hypertension or cardiovascular disease. Strategies to reduce weight among those who are overweight, as well as those who are obese may

  1. Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ning

    Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is

  2. Adjuvant Sunitinib for High-risk Renal Cell Carcinoma After Nephrectomy: Subgroup Analyses and Updated Overall Survival Results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Motzer, Robert J; Ravaud, Alain; Patard, Jean-Jacques

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Adjuvant sunitinib significantly improved disease-free survival (DFS) versus placebo in patients with locoregional renal cell carcinoma (RCC) at high risk of recurrence after nephrectomy (hazard ratio [HR] 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.98; p=0.03). OBJECTIVE: To report...... sunitinib over placebo was observed across subgroups, including: higher risk (T3, no or undetermined nodal involvement, Fuhrman grade ≥2, ECOG PS ≥1, T4 and/or nodal involvement; hazard ratio [HR] 0.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55-0.99; p=0.04), NLR ≤3 (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.54-0.95; p=0.02), and Fuhrman...... grade 3/4 (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.55-0.98; p=0.04). All subgroup analyses were exploratory, and no adjustments for multiplicity were made. Median OS was not reached in either arm (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.66-1.28; p=0.6); 67 and 74 patients died in the sunitinib and placebo arms, respectively. CONCLUSIONS...

  3. Interactions among Candidate Genes Selected by Meta-Analyses Resulting in Higher Risk of Ischemic Stroke in a Chinese Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Man Luo

    Full Text Available Ischemic stroke (IS is a multifactorial disorder caused by both genetic and environmental factors. The combined effects of multiple susceptibility genes might result in a higher risk for IS than a single gene. Therefore, we investigated whether interactions among multiple susceptibility genes were associated with an increased risk of IS by evaluating gene polymorphisms identified in previous meta-analyses, including methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR C677T, beta fibrinogen (FGB, β-FG A455G and T148C, apolipoprotein E (APOE ε2-4, angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE insertion/deletion (I/D, and endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS G894T. In order to examine these interactions, 712 patients with IS and 774 controls in a Chinese Han population were genotyped using the SNaPshot method, and multifactor dimensionality reduction analysis was used to detect potential interactions among the candidate genes. The results of this study found that ACE I/D and β-FG T148C were significant synergistic contributors to IS. In particular, the ACE DD + β-FG 148CC, ACE DD + β-FG 148CT, and ACE ID + β-FG 148CC genotype combinations resulted in higher risk of IS. After adjusting for potential confounding IS risk factors (age, gender, family history of IS, hypertension history and history of diabetes mellitus using a logistic analysis, a significant correlation between the genotype combinations and IS patients persisted (overall stroke: adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 1.57, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.22-2.02, P < 0.001, large artery atherosclerosis subtype: adjusted OR = 1.50, 95% CI: 1.08-2.07, P = 0.016, small-artery occlusion subtype: adjusted OR = 2.04, 95% CI: 1.43-2.91, P < 0.001. The results of this study indicate that the ACE I/D and β-FG T148C combination may result in significantly higher risk of IS in this Chinese population.

  4. Relative radiological risks derived from different TENORM wastes in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, B; Teng, I L; Muhammad Samudi, Y

    2011-11-01

    In Malaysia technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials (TENORM) wastes are mainly the product of the oil and gas industry and mineral processing. Among these TENORM wastes are tin tailing, tin slag, gypsum and oil sludge. Mineral processing and oil and gas industries produce large volume of TENORM wastes that has become a radiological concern to the authorities. A study was carried out to assess the radiological risk related to workers working at these disposal sites and landfills as well as to the members of the public should these areas be developed for future land use. Radiological risk was assessed based on the magnitude of radiation hazard, effective dose rates and excess cancer risks. Effective dose rates and excess cancer risks were estimated using RESRAD 6.4 computer code. All data on the activity concentrations of NORM in wastes and sludges used in this study were obtained from the Atomic Energy Licensing Board, Malaysia, and they were collected over a period of between 5 and 10 y. Results obtained showed that there was a wide range in the total activity concentrations (TAC) of nuclides in the TENORM wastes. With the exception of tin slag and tin tailing-based TENORM wastes, all other TENORM wastes have TAC values comparable to that of Malaysia's soil. Occupational Effective Dose Rates estimated in all landfill areas were lower than the 20 mSv y(-1) permissible dose limit. The average Excess Cancer Risk Coefficient was estimated to be 2.77×10(-3) risk per mSv. The effective dose rates for residents living on gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes landfills were estimated to be lower than the permissible dose limit for members of the public, and was also comparable to that of the average Malaysia's ordinary soils. The average excess cancer risk coefficient was estimated to be 3.19×10(-3) risk per mSv. Results obtained suggest that gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes should be exempted from any radiological regulatory

  5. Relative radiological risks derived from different TENORM wastes in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ismail, B.; Teng, I. L.; Muhammad samudi, Y.

    2011-01-01

    In Malaysia technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials (TENORM) wastes are mainly the product of the oil and gas industry and mineral processing. Among these TENORM wastes are tin tailing, tin slag, gypsum and oil sludge. Mineral processing and oil and gas industries produce large volume of TENORM wastes that has become a radiological concern to the authorities. A study was carried out to assess the radiological risk related to workers working at these disposal sites and landfills as well as to the members of the public should these areas be developed for future land use. Radiological risk was assessed based on the magnitude of radiation hazard, effective dose rates and excess cancer risks. Effective dose rates and excess cancer risks were estimated using RESRAD 6.4 computer code. All data on the activity concentrations of NORM in wastes and sludges used in this study were obtained from the Atomic Energy Licensing Board (Malaysia), and they were collected over a period of between 5 and 10 y. Results obtained showed that there was a wide range in the total activity concentrations (TAC) of nuclides in the TENORM wastes. With the exception of tin slag and tin tailing-based TENORM wastes, all other TENORM wastes have TAC values comparable to that of Malaysia's soil. Occupational Effective Dose Rates estimated in all landfill areas were lower than the 20 mSv y -1 permissible dose limit. The average Excess Cancer Risk Coefficient was estimated to be 2.77 x 10 -3 risk per mSv. The effective dose rates for residents living on gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes landfills were estimated to be lower than the permissible dose limit for members of the public, and was also comparable to that of the average Malaysia's ordinary soils. The average excess cancer risk coefficient was estimated to be 3.19 x 10 -3 risk per mSv. Results obtained suggest that gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes should be exempted from any radiological regulatory

  6. Meta-analyses of the relationship between conformity to masculine norms and mental health-related outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Y Joel; Ho, Moon-Ho Ringo; Wang, Shu-Yi; Miller, I S Keino

    2017-01-01

    Despite theoretical postulations that individuals' conformity to masculine norms is differentially related to mental health-related outcomes depending on a variety of contexts, there has not been any systematic synthesis of the empirical research on this topic. Therefore, the authors of this study conducted meta-analyses of the relationships between conformity to masculine norms (as measured by the Conformity to Masculine Norms Inventory-94 and other versions of this scale) and mental health-related outcomes using 78 samples and 19,453 participants. Conformity to masculine norms was modestly and unfavorably associated with mental health as well as moderately and unfavorably related to psychological help seeking. The authors also identified several moderation effects. Conformity to masculine norms was more strongly correlated with negative social functioning than with psychological indicators of negative mental health. Conformity to the specific masculine norms of self-reliance, power over women, and playboy were unfavorably, robustly, and consistently related to mental health-related outcomes, whereas conformity to the masculine norm of primacy of work was not significantly related to any mental health-related outcome. These findings highlight the need for researchers to disaggregate the generic construct of conformity to masculine norms and to focus instead on specific dimensions of masculine norms and their differential associations with other outcomes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. What are the main risk factors for running-related injuries?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saragiotto, Bruno Tirotti; Yamato, Tiê Parma; Hespanhol Junior, Luiz Carlos; Rainbow, Michael J; Davis, Irene S; Lopes, Alexandre Dias

    2014-08-01

    Despite several studies that have been conducted on running injuries, the risk factors for running-related injuries are still not clear in the literature. The aim of this study was to systematically review prospective cohort studies that investigated the risk factors for running injuries in general. We conducted electronic searches without restriction of language on EMBASE (1980 to Dec 2012), PUBMED (1946 to Dec 2012), CINAHL (1988 to Dec 2012) SPORTDiscus (1977 to Dec 2012), Latin American and Caribbean Centre on Health Sciences Information (1985 to Dec 2012) and Scientific Electronic Library Online (1998 to Dec 2012) databases, using subject headings, synonyms, relevant terms and variant spellings for each database. Only prospective cohort studies investigating the risk factors for running-related musculoskeletal injuries were included in this review. Two independent reviewers screened each article and, if they did not reach a consensus, a third reviewer decided whether or not the article should be included. Year of publication, type of runners, sample size, definition of running-related musculoskeletal injury, baseline characteristics, reported risk factors and the statistical measurement of risk or protection association were extracted from the articles. A scale adapted by the authors evaluated the risk of bias of the articles. A total of 11 articles were considered eligible in this systematic review. A total of 4,671 pooled participants were analysed and 60 different predictive factors were investigated. The main risk factor reported was previous injury (last 12 months), reported in 5 of the 8 studies that investigated previous injuries as a risk factor. Only one article met the criteria for random selection of the sample and only six articles included a follow-up of 6 months or more. There was no association between gender and running injuries in most of the studies. It is possible that eligible articles for this review were published in journals that were

  8. Analyse of pollution sources in Horna Nitra river basin using the system GeoEnviron such as instrument for groundwater and surface water pollution risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kutnik, P.

    2004-01-01

    In this presentation author deals with the analyse of pollution sources in Horna Nitra river basin using the system GeoEnviron such as instrument for groundwater and surface water pollution risk assessment

  9. Career-span analyses of track performance: longitudinal data present a more optimistic view of age-related performance decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Bradley W; Starkes, Janet L

    2005-01-01

    Sport scientists (Starkes, Weir, Singh, Hodges, & Kerr, 1999; Starkes, Weir, & Young, 2003) have suggested that prolonged training is critical for the maintenance of athletic performance even in the face of predicted age-related decline. This study used polynomial regression analyses to examine the relationship between age and running performance in the 1500 and 10,000 metre events. We compared the age and career-longitudinal performances for 15 male Canadian Masters athletes with a cross-sectional sample of performances at different ages. We hypothesized that the 30 years of uninterrupted training characteristic of this longitudinal sample would moderate the patterns of age-related decline (retention hypothesis); alternatively, the cross-sectional data were expected to demonstrate pronounced age-related decline (quadratic hypothesis). Investigators performed multimodel regression analyses on the age and performance data. Based on the absence (for longitudinal data) or presence (for the cross-sectional data) of significant quadratic components in second-order polynomial models, the authors found support for their respective hypotheses. The longitudinal data showed that running performance declined with age in a more linear fashion than did cross-sectional data. Graphical trends showed that the moderation of age-related decline appeared greater for the longitudinal 10 km performances than for the 1500m event.

  10. Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

  11. The shaping of environmental concern in product chains: analysing Danish case studies on environmental aspects in product chain relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forman, Marianne; Hansen, Anne Grethe; Jørgensen, Michael Søgaard

    indirect demand for greening activities. The analysis shows the co-construction of environmental concerns and demands, companies’ environmental practices and technological developments, and their stabilisation in the supply chain. The case studies also point to how the greening of frontrunners might make...... the systems of production, consumption, knowledge and regulation are discussed. The role of boundary objects is discussed with eco-labelling as case. The role of and the impact on the product chain relations are analysed as part of these mechanisms. From the case studies, green innovations in the product...... chain, which the case company represents, are identified. Direct customer and regulatory demands, as well as indirect societal and regulatory demands are mapped, and their role for product chain greening analysed. The case studies point to the importance of customer demand, regulation and potentially...

  12. Modeling the potential risk factors of bovine viral diarrhea prevalence in Egypt using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelfattah M. Selim

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The present cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the seroprevalence and potential risk factors associated with Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV disease in cattle and buffaloes in Egypt, to model the potential risk factors associated with the disease using logistic regression (LR models, and to fit the best predictive model for the current data. Materials and Methods: A total of 740 blood samples were collected within November 2012-March 2013 from animals aged between 6 months and 3 years. The potential risk factors studied were species, age, sex, and herd location. All serum samples were examined with indirect ELIZA test for antibody detection. Data were analyzed with different statistical approaches such as Chi-square test, odds ratios (OR, univariable, and multivariable LR models. Results: Results revealed a non-significant association between being seropositive with BVDV and all risk factors, except for species of animal. Seroprevalence percentages were 40% and 23% for cattle and buffaloes, respectively. OR for all categories were close to one with the highest OR for cattle relative to buffaloes, which was 2.237. Likelihood ratio tests showed a significant drop of the -2LL from univariable LR to multivariable LR models. Conclusion: There was an evidence of high seroprevalence of BVDV among cattle as compared with buffaloes with the possibility of infection in different age groups of animals. In addition, multivariable LR model was proved to provide more information for association and prediction purposes relative to univariable LR models and Chi-square tests if we have more than one predictor.

  13. Autonomous and controlled motivational regulations for multiple health-related behaviors: between- and within-participants analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagger, M.S.; Hardcastle, S.J.; Chater, A.; Mallett, C.; Pal, S.; Chatzisarantis, N.L.D.

    2014-01-01

    Self-determination theory has been applied to the prediction of a number of health-related behaviors with self-determined or autonomous forms of motivation generally more effective in predicting health behavior than non-self-determined or controlled forms. Research has been confined to examining the motivational predictors in single health behaviors rather than comparing effects across multiple behaviors. The present study addressed this gap in the literature by testing the relative contribution of autonomous and controlling motivation to the prediction of a large number of health-related behaviors, and examining individual differences in self-determined motivation as a moderator of the effects of autonomous and controlling motivation on health behavior. Participants were undergraduate students (N = 140) who completed measures of autonomous and controlled motivational regulations and behavioral intention for 20 health-related behaviors at an initial occasion with follow-up behavioral measures taken four weeks later. Path analysis was used to test a process model for each behavior in which motivational regulations predicted behavior mediated by intentions. Some minor idiosyncratic findings aside, between-participants analyses revealed significant effects for autonomous motivational regulations on intentions and behavior across the 20 behaviors. Effects for controlled motivation on intentions and behavior were relatively modest by comparison. Intentions mediated the effect of autonomous motivation on behavior. Within-participants analyses were used to segregate the sample into individuals who based their intentions on autonomous motivation (autonomy-oriented) and controlled motivation (control-oriented). Replicating the between-participants path analyses for the process model in the autonomy- and control-oriented samples did not alter the relative effects of the motivational orientations on intention and behavior. Results provide evidence for consistent effects

  14. Magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes in relation to seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, R.D.

    1989-01-01

    Estimating the frequencies of occurrence of earthquakes of different magnitudes on a regional basis is an important task in estimating seismic risk at a construction site. Analysis of global earthquake data provides an insight into the magnitudes frequency relationship in a statistical manner. It turns out that, whereas a linear relationship between the logarithm of earthquake occurrence rates and the corresponding earthquake magnitudes fits well in the magnitude range between 5 and 7, a second degree polynomial in M, the earthquake magnitude provides a better description of the frequencies of earthquakes in a much wider range of magnitudes. It may be possible to adopt magnitude frequency relation for regions, for which adequate earthquake data are not available, to carry out seismic risk calculations. (author). 32 refs., 8 tabs., 7 figs

  15. MicroRNA Related Polymorphisms and Breast Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Milne, Roger L.; Muranen, Taru A.; Heikkinen, Tuomas; Aaltonen, Kirsimari; Dennis, Joe; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Liu, Jianjun; Hall, Per; Irwanto, Astrid; Humphreys, Keith; Li, Jingmei; Czene, Kamila; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hein, Rebecca; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Johnson, Nichola; Gibson, Lorna; Aitken, Zoe; Hopper, John L.; Tsimiklis, Helen; Bui, Minh; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Southey, Melissa C.; Apicella, Carmel; Stone, Jennifer; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel A.; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Chanock, Stephen J.; Hunter, David J.; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S.; Reed, Malcolm W. R.; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Broeks, Annegien; Veer, Laura J. V. a. n't.; Hogervorst, Frans B.; Fasching, Peter A.; Schrauder, Michael G.; Ekici, Arif B.; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Bojesen, Stig E.; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Nielsen, Sune F.; Flyger, Henrik; Benitez, Javier; Zamora, Pilar M.; Perez, Jose I. A.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Henderson, Brian E.; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Dunning, Alison M.; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Couch, Fergus J.; Wang, Xianshu; Vachon, Celine; Olson, Janet E.; Lambrechts, Diether; Moisse, Matthieu; Paridaens, Robert; Christiaens, Marie-Rose; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Mulot, Claire; Marme, Frederick; Burwinkel, Barbara; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J.; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L.; Knight, Julia A.; Tchatchou, Sandrine; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Dörk, Thilo; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Antonenkova, Natalia N.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Figueroa, Jonine; Lissowska, Jolanta; Brinton, Louise; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A. E. M.; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J.; Kristensen, Vessela N.; Slager, Susan; Toland, Amanda E.; Ambrosone, Christine B.; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Barile, Monica; Mariani, Paolo; Hooning, Maartje J.; Martens, John W. M.; Collée, J. Margriet; Jager, Agnes; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Giles, Graham G.; McLean, Catriona; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Brenner, Hermann; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Jones, Michael; Simard, Jacques; Goldberg, Mark S.; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M.; Mannermaa, Arto; Hamann, Ute; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Blomqvist, Carl; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Easton, Douglas F.; Nevanlinna, Heli

    2014-01-01

    Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR) 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88–0.96), rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99), rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94–0.99), rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01–1.05) located in the 3′ UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects. PMID:25390939

  16. MicroRNA related polymorphisms and breast cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Milne, Roger L; Muranen, Taru A; Heikkinen, Tuomas; Aaltonen, Kirsimari; Dennis, Joe; Bolla, Manjeet K; Liu, Jianjun; Hall, Per; Irwanto, Astrid; Humphreys, Keith; Li, Jingmei; Czene, Kamila; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hein, Rebecca; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Johnson, Nichola; Gibson, Lorna; Aitken, Zoe; Hopper, John L; Tsimiklis, Helen; Bui, Minh; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F; Southey, Melissa C; Apicella, Carmel; Stone, Jennifer; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel A; van der Luijt, Rob B; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Chanock, Stephen J; Hunter, David J; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S; Reed, Malcolm W R; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Broeks, Annegien; Van't Veer, Laura J; Hogervorst, Frans B; Fasching, Peter A; Schrauder, Michael G; Ekici, Arif B; Beckmann, Matthias W; Bojesen, Stig E; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Nielsen, Sune F; Flyger, Henrik; Benitez, Javier; Zamora, Pilar M; Perez, Jose I A; Haiman, Christopher A; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Pharoah, Paul D P; Dunning, Alison M; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Couch, Fergus J; Wang, Xianshu; Vachon, Celine; Olson, Janet E; Lambrechts, Diether; Moisse, Matthieu; Paridaens, Robert; Christiaens, Marie-Rose; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Mulot, Claire; Marme, Frederick; Burwinkel, Barbara; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Sawyer, Elinor J; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L; Knight, Julia A; Tchatchou, Sandrine; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Dörk, Thilo; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Antonenkova, Natalia N; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Figueroa, Jonine; Lissowska, Jolanta; Brinton, Louise; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A E M; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J; Kristensen, Vessela N; Slager, Susan; Toland, Amanda E; Ambrosone, Christine B; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Barile, Monica; Mariani, Paolo; Hooning, Maartje J; Martens, John W M; Collée, J Margriet; Jager, Agnes; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Giles, Graham G; McLean, Catriona; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Brenner, Hermann; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Jones, Michael; Simard, Jacques; Goldberg, Mark S; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Mannermaa, Arto; Hamann, Ute; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Blomqvist, Carl; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Easton, Douglas F; Nevanlinna, Heli

    2014-01-01

    Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR) 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88-0.96), rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99), rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94-0.99), rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05) located in the 3' UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects.

  17. MicroRNA related polymorphisms and breast cancer risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia Khan

    Full Text Available Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in microRNAs (miRNA or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS. Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC. Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI: 0.88-0.96, rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94-0.99, rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05 located in the 3' UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects.

  18. Combined effects of NQO1 Pro187Ser or SULT1A1 Arg213His polymorphism and smoking on bladder cancer risk: Two meta-analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Chun Wang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Objectives: Cigarette smoking is the major risk factor of bladder cancer via exposure to chemical carcinogens. Nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADP+: quinine oxidoreductase 1 (NQO1 and sulfotransferase 1A1 (SULT1A1 have been reported to involve in the metabolism of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs and aromatic amines. Therefore, the risk of bladder cancer (BC may be influenced by polymorphisms in the genes that modulate metabolic detoxification in particular by interacting with cigarette smoking. Considering the limited power by the individual studies with a relatively small sample size, especially when analyzing the combined effect of polymorphisms in NQO1 and SULT1A1 genes and smoking, these 2 meta-analyses have aimed to clarify the combined effects of them on BC risk by integrating related studies. Material and Methods: Two meta-analyses included 1341 cases and 1346 controls concerning NQO1 Pro187Ser and smoking, and 1921 cases and 1882 controls on SULT1A1 Arg213His and smoking were performed. Odds ratios (OR and 95% confidence intervals (CI were used for assessing the strength of the association. Results: The result has demonstrated that smokers with NQO1 Pro/Ser or Ser/Ser genotypes have a prominent association with the risk of BC as compared with non-smokers with NQO1 Pro/Pro genotype, with OR equal to 3.71 (95% CI: 2.87–4.78, pheterogeneity = 0.376. Besides, smokers carrying SULT1A1 Arg/Arg genotypes were observed to confer 2.38 fold increased risk of BC (95% CI: 1.44–3.93, pheterogeneity = 0.001 when compared with non-smokers with SULT1A1 Arg/Arg or His/His genotypes. Conclusions: These findings have suggested that the NQO1 Pro187Ser or SULT1A1 Arg213His polymorphism combination with smoking significantly confer susceptibility to BC. Int J Occup Med Environ Health 2017;30(5:791–802

  19. Combined effects of NQO1 Pro187Ser or SULT1A1 Arg213His polymorphism and smoking on bladder cancer risk: Two meta-analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Chun; Wang, Jian; Tao, Hui-Hui; Zhang, Chao; Xu, Li-Fa

    2017-07-14

    Objectives: Cigarette smoking is the major risk factor of bladder cancer via exposure to chemical carcinogens. Nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADP+): quinine oxidoreductase 1 (NQO1) and sulfotransferase 1A1 (SULT1A1) have been reported to involve in the metabolism of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and aromatic amines. Therefore, the risk of bladder cancer (BC) may be influenced by polymorphisms in the genes that modulate metabolic detoxification in particular by interacting with cigarette smoking. Considering the limited power by the individual studies with a relatively small sample size, especially when analyzing the combined effect of polymorphisms in NQO1 and SULT1A1 genes and smoking, these 2 meta-analyses have aimed to clarify the combined effects of them on BC risk by integrating related studies. Two meta-analyses included 1341 cases and 1346 controls concerning NQO1 Pro187Ser and smoking, and 1921 cases and 1882 controls on SULT1A1 Arg213His and smoking were performed. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used for assessing the strength of the association. The result has demonstrated that smokers with NQO1 Pro/Ser or Ser/Ser genotypes have a prominent association with the risk of BC as compared with non-smokers with NQO1 Pro/Pro genotype, with OR equal to 3.71 (95% CI: 2.87-4.78, pheterogeneity = 0.376). Besides, smokers carrying SULT1A1 Arg/Arg genotypes were observed to confer 2.38 fold increased risk of BC (95% CI: 1.44-3.93, pheterogeneity = 0.001) when compared with non-smokers with SULT1A1 Arg/Arg or His/His genotypes. These findings have suggested that the NQO1 Pro187Ser or SULT1A1 Arg213His polymorphism combination with smoking significantly confer susceptibility to BC. Int J Occup Med Environ Health 2017;30(5):791-802. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

  20. Risk of Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Relation to Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathes, Robert; Ito, Kazuhiko; Matte, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine the effects of temperature on cardiovascular-related (CVD) morbidity and mortality among New York City (NYC) residents. Introduction Extreme temperatures are consistently shown to have an effect on CVD-related mortality [1, 2]. A large multi-city study of mortality demonstrated a cold-day and hot-day weather effect on CVD-related deaths, with the larger impact occurring on the coldest days [3]. In contrast, the association between weather and CVD-related morbidity is less clear [4, 5]. The purpose of this study is to characterize the effect of temperature on CVD-related emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and mortality on a large, heterogeneous population. Additionally, we conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the impact of air pollutants, specifically fine particulates (PM2.5) and ozone (O3), along with temperature, on CVD outcomes. Methods We analyzed daily weather conditions, ED visits classified as CVD-related based on chief complaint text, hospitalizations, and natural cause deaths that occurred in NYC between 2002 and 2006. ED visits were obtained from data reported daily to the city health department for syndromic surveillance. Inpatient admissions were obtained from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System, a data reporting system developed by New York State. Mortality data were obtained from the NYC Office of Vital Statistics. Data for PM2.5 and O3 were obtained from all available air quality monitors within the five boroughs of NYC. To estimate risk of CVD morbidity and mortality, we used generalized linear models using a Poisson distribution to calculate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A non-linear distributed lag was used to model mean temperature in order to allow for its effect on the same day and on subsequent days. Models were fit separately for cold season (October through March) and warm season (April through September) given season may modify the effect on CVD

  1. Children with Elevated Psychosocial Risk Load Benefit Most from a Family-Based Preventive Intervention: Exploratory Differential Analyses from the German "Strengthening Families Program 10-14" Adaptation Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bröning, Sonja; Baldus, Christiane; Thomsen, Monika; Sack, Peter-Michael; Arnaud, Nicolas; Thomasius, Rainer

    2017-11-01

    While the effectiveness of substance use prevention programs such as the Strengthening Families Program 10-14 (SFP) has been demonstrated in the USA, European SFP adaptations have not replicated these sizable effects. Following the rationale of the risk moderation hypothesis positing that elevated risk groups may benefit more from a preventive intervention than lower-risk groups, we reanalyzed evaluation data from a randomized controlled trial testing the adapted German version of SFP (SFP-D). We hypothesized a differential impact of risk status on intervention results. The study employed a minimal control condition. Of the N = 292 participating children, 73.5% qualified as at-risk because they lived in a deprived urban district, and 26.5% qualified as high risk because they additionally scored as "difficult" in the German Strengths and Difficulty Questionnaire (parents' reports using gender- and age-specific German norms). Outcomes were children's self-reports on substance use, mental health, family functioning, and quality of life. Data were analyzed with repeated measures linear mixed models and relative risk analyses. The high-risk group in the SFP-D condition achieved the best results compared with all other groups, especially in mental health and quality of life. Relative risk analyses on tobacco [alcohol] abstinence showed that an additional percentage of 29.8% [16.0%] of high-risk children in nonabstinent controls would have remained abstinent if they had participated in SFP-D. We conclude that risk load influences the impact of substance use prevention programs and discuss to what extent differential analyses can add value to prevention research.

  2. Effect of relative humidity and temperature control on in-cabin thermal comfort state: Thermodynamic and psychometric analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alahmer, A.; Omar, M.A.; Mayyas, A.; Dongri, Shan

    2011-01-01

    This manuscript discusses the effect of manipulating the Relative Humidity RH of in-cabin environment on the thermal comfort and human occupants' thermal sensation. The study uses thermodynamic and psychometric analyses, to incorporate the effect of changing RH along with the dry bulb temperature on human comfort. Specifically, the study computes the effect of changing the relative humidity on the amount of heat rejected from the passenger compartment and the effect of relative humidity on occupants comfort zone. A practical system implementation is also discussed in terms of an evaporative cooler design. The results show that changing the RH along with dry bulb temperature inside vehicular cabins can improve the air conditioning efficiency by reducing the heat removed while improving the Human comfort sensations as measured by the Predicted Mean Value PMV and the Predicted Percentage Dissatisfied PPD indices. - Highlights: → Investigates the effect of controlling the RH and dry bulb temperature on in-cabin thermal comfort and sensation. → Conducts the thermodynamic and psychometric analyses for changing the RH and temperature for in-cabin air conditioning. → Discusses a possible system implementation through an evaporative cooler design.

  3. The role of religiosity, social support, and stress-related growth in protecting against HIV risk among transgender women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golub, Sarit A; Walker, Ja'nina J; Longmire-Avital, Buffie; Bimbi, David S; Parsons, Jeffrey T

    2010-11-01

    Transgender women completed questionnaires of religiosity, social support, stigma, stress-related growth, and sexual risk behavior. In a multivariate model, both social support and religious stress-related growth were significant negative predictors of unprotected anal sex, but religious behaviors and beliefs emerged as a significant positive predictor. The interaction between religious behaviors and beliefs and social support was also significant, and post-hoc analyses indicated that high-risk sex was least likely among individuals with high-levels of social support but low levels of religious behaviors and beliefs. These data have important implications for understanding factors that might protect against HIV risk for transgender women.

  4. Simulating the market coefficient of relative risk aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samih Antoine Azar

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, expected utility, defined by a Taylor series expansion around expected wealth, is maximized. The coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA that is commensurate with a 100% investment in the risky asset is simulated. The following parameters are varied: the riskless return, the market standard deviation, the market stock premium, and the skewness and the kurtosis of the risky return. Both the high extremes and the low extremes are considered. With these figures, the upper bound of the market CRRA is 3.021 and the lower bound is 0.466. Log utility, which corresponds to a CRRA of 1, is not excluded.

  5. Pleiotropic Meta-Analyses of Longitudinal Studies Discover Novel Genetic Variants Associated with Age-Related Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang He

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Age-related diseases may result from shared biological mechanisms in intrinsic processes of aging. Genetic effects on age-related diseases are often modulated by environmental factors due to their little contribution to fitness or are mediated through certain endophenotypes. Identification of genetic variants with pleiotropic effects on both common complex diseases and endophenotypes may reveal potential conflicting evolutionary pressures and deliver new insights into shared genetic contribution to healthspan and lifespan. Here, we performed pleiotropic meta-analyses of genetic variants using five NIH-funded datasets by integrating univariate summary statistics for age-related diseases and endophenotypes. We investigated three groups of traits: (1 endophenotypes such as blood glucose, blood pressure, lipids, hematocrit, and body mass index, (2 time-to-event outcomes such as the age-at-onset of diabetes mellitus (DM, cancer, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs and neurodegenerative diseases (NDs, and (3 both combined. In addition to replicating previous findings, we identify seven novel genome-wide significant loci (< 5e-08, out of which five are low-frequency variants. Specifically, from Group 2, we find rs7632505 on 3q21.1 in SEMA5B, rs460976 on 21q22.3 (1 kb from TMPRSS2 and rs12420422 on 11q24.1 predominantly associated with a variety of CVDs, rs4905014 in ITPK1 associated with stroke and heart failure, rs7081476 on 10p12.1 in ANKRD26 associated with multiple diseases including DM, CVDs, and NDs. From Group 3, we find rs8082812 on 18p11.22 and rs1869717 on 4q31.3 associated with both endophenotypes and CVDs. Our follow-up analyses show that rs7632505, rs4905014, and rs8082812 have age-dependent effects on coronary heart disease or stroke. Functional annotation suggests that most of these SNPs are within regulatory regions or DNase clusters and in linkage disequilibrium with expression quantitative trait loci, implying their potential regulatory

  6. Risk of vertebral insufficiency fractures in relation to compressive strength predicted by quantitative computed tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biggemann, M.; Hilweg, D.; Seidel, S.; Horst, M.; Brinckmann, P.

    1991-01-01

    Vertebral insufficiency fractures may result from excessive loading of normal and routine loading of osteoporotic spines. Fractures occur when the mechanical load exceeds the vertebral compressive strength, i.e., the maximum load a vertebra can tolerate. Vertebral compressive strength is determined by trabecular bone density and the size of end-plate area. Both parameters can be measured non-invasively by quanti-tative computed tomography (QCT). In 75 patients compressive strength (i.e., trabecular bone density and endplate area) of the vertebra L3 was determined using QCT. In addition, conventional radiographs of the spines were analysed for the prevalence of insufficiency fractures in each case. By relating fracture prevalence to strength, 3 fracture risk groups were found: a high-risk group with strength values of L3 5 kN and a fracture risk near 0 percent. Biomechanical measurements and model calculations indicate that spinal loads of 3 to 4 kN at L3/4 will be common in everyday activities. These data and the results described above suggest that spines with strength values of L3<3 kN are at an extremely high risk of insufficiency fractures in daily life. Advantages of fracture risk assessment by strength determination over risk estimation based on clinically used trabecular bone density measurements are discussed. (author). 18 refs.; 4 figs

  7. The derivation and application of a risk related value for saving a statistical life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, D.; Stone, D.; Butler, G.G.; Mcglynn, G.

    2004-01-01

    A risk related value of spend for saving a statistical life (VSSSL) is proposed for cost-benefit studies across the power generation sector, and the nuclear industry in particular. An upper bound on VSSSL is set based on the UK government standard of around pound 1 M or, in particular circumstances, pound 2 M and the observation that excessive spend (probably of the order of more than pound 5 M per statistical life) will actually cost lives. Above a risk of 10 -3 a -1 it is assumed that VSSSL approaches maximum sustainable value around pound 2 M, whereas below a risk of 10 -9 a -1 the value of further risk reduction approaches zero. At risks around 10 -6 a -1 it is proposed that an appropriate VSSL lies in the range pound 0.25 M to pound 1 M. With respect to radiological protection, it is suggested that where collective doses are dominated by average individual doses no more than a few μSv, the detriment arising from a man-Sv can be valued at about pound 15 k to pound 60 k. It is further suggested that for individual dose contributions below 0.01 μSv (representing a risk equivalent to less than 10 -9 ) a low residual VSSSL should be applied in cost-benefit analyses based on collective dose exposures. (author)

  8. Energy use and related risk management problems in CEE countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ney, R.; Michna, J.; Ekmanis, J.; Zeltins, N.; Zebergs, V.

    2008-01-01

    Nowadays, the efficiency of energy use in the Central and East-European (CEE) countries is insufficient, being much lower than in the 'Old Europe'. The problem becomes increasingly pressing due to non-stop increasing prices of energy carriers (especially of crude oil). The authors trace the development of research activities in this sphere, classifying the revealed changes in parameters of energy consumption processes in particular time intervals into deterministic, probabilistic, and fuzzy. The paper presents a thorough analysis of decision-making in the energy management at its different levels normative, strategic, and operative. Particular attention is given to the management under uncertainty conditions - i.e. to the risk management. The most wanted research directions in this area proposed by the energy and environment policy (EEP) Center specially created for CEE countries concern management under risk connected with innovations, international activities, loss of reputation, etc.. The authors consider in detail the risk management with insufficient knowledge (non-knowledge) and under chaos. Much consideration is given to the scenario management and the game theory principles as related to the sphere of energy use. (Authors)

  9. Health behavior and health-related quality of life in patients with a high risk of cardiovascular disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petek Davorina

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Health-related quality of life (HRQoL is measuring a patient’s experience of his health status and represents an outcome of medical interventions. Existing data proves that a healthy lifestyle is positively associated with HRQoL in all age groups. Patients with a high risk for cardiovascular disease typically led an unhealthy lifestyle combined with risk diseases. We aimed to analyse these characteristics and their reflection in HRQoL.

  10. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of information processing in first psychosis: latent class analyses in patients, at-risk subjects, and controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Tricht, Mirjam J; Bour, Lo J; Koelman, Johannes H T M; Derks, Eske M; Braff, David L; de Wilde, Odette M; Boerée, Thijs; Linszen, Don H; de Haan, Lieuwe; Nieman, Dorien H

    2015-04-01

    We aimed to determine profiles of information processing deficits in the pathway to first psychosis. Sixty-one subjects at ultrahigh risk (UHR) for psychosis were assessed, of whom 18 converted to a first episode of psychosis (FEP) within the follow-up period. Additionally, 47 FEP and 30 control subjects were included. Using 10 neurophysiological parameters associated with information processing, latent class analyses yielded three classes at baseline. Class membership was related to group status. Within the UHR sample, two classes were found. Transition to psychosis was nominally associated with class membership. Neurophysiological profiles were unstable over time, but associations between specific neurophysiological components at baseline and follow-up were found. We conclude that certain constellations of neurophysiological variables aid in the differentiation between controls and patients in the prodrome and after first psychosis. Copyright © 2014 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  11. The use of bootstrap methods for analysing health-related quality of life outcomes (particularly the SF-36

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Campbell Michael J

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL measures are becoming increasingly used in clinical trials as primary outcome measures. Investigators are now asking statisticians for advice on how to analyse studies that have used HRQoL outcomes. HRQoL outcomes, like the SF-36, are usually measured on an ordinal scale. However, most investigators assume that there exists an underlying continuous latent variable that measures HRQoL, and that the actual measured outcomes (the ordered categories, reflect contiguous intervals along this continuum. The ordinal scaling of HRQoL measures means they tend to generate data that have discrete, bounded and skewed distributions. Thus, standard methods of analysis such as the t-test and linear regression that assume Normality and constant variance may not be appropriate. For this reason, conventional statistical advice would suggest that non-parametric methods be used to analyse HRQoL data. The bootstrap is one such computer intensive non-parametric method for analysing data. We used the bootstrap for hypothesis testing and the estimation of standard errors and confidence intervals for parameters, in four datasets (which illustrate the different aspects of study design. We then compared and contrasted the bootstrap with standard methods of analysing HRQoL outcomes. The standard methods included t-tests, linear regression, summary measures and General Linear Models. Overall, in the datasets we studied, using the SF-36 outcome, bootstrap methods produce results similar to conventional statistical methods. This is likely because the t-test and linear regression are robust to the violations of assumptions that HRQoL data are likely to cause (i.e. non-Normality. While particular to our datasets, these findings are likely to generalise to other HRQoL outcomes, which have discrete, bounded and skewed distributions. Future research with other HRQoL outcome measures, interventions and populations, is required to

  12. Association of vitamin C with the risk of age-related cataract: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Lin; Liang, Ge; Cai, Chunmei; Lv, Jin

    2016-05-01

    Whether vitamin C is a protective factor for age-related cataract remains unclear. Thus, we conducted a meta-analysis to summarize the evidence from epidemiological studies of vitamin C and the risk of age-related cataract. Pertinent studies were identified by searching in PubMed and in Webscience. The random effect model was used to combine the results. Meta-regression and subgroups analyses were used to explore potential sources of between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was estimated using Egger's regression asymmetry test. Finally, 15 articles with 20 studies for vitamin C intake and eight articles with 10 studies for serum ascorbate were included in this meta-analysis. The relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval of cataract for the highest versus the lowest category of vitamin C intake was 0.814 (0.707-0.938), and the associations were significant in America and Asia. Significant association of cataract risk with highest versus the lowest category of serum ascorbate was found in general [0.704 (0.564-0.879)]. Inverse associations were also found between serum ascorbate and nuclear cataract and posterior subcapsular cataract. Higher vitamin C intake and serum ascorbate might be inversely associated with risk of cataract. Vitamin C intake should be advocated for the primary prevention of cataract. © 2015 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Energy drinks and alcohol-related risk among young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caviness, Celeste M; Anderson, Bradley J; Stein, Michael D

    2017-01-01

    Energy drink consumption, with or without concurrent alcohol use, is common among young adults. This study sought to clarify risk for negative alcohol outcomes related to the timing of energy drink use. The authors interviewed a community sample of 481 young adults, aged 18-25, who drank alcohol in the last month. Past-30-day energy drink use was operationalized as no-use, use without concurrent alcohol, and concurrent use of energy drinks with alcohol ("within a couple of hours"). Negative alcohol outcomes included past-30-day binge drinking, past-30-day alcohol use disorder, and drinking-related consequences. Just over half (50.5%) reported no use of energy drinks,18.3% reported using energy drinks without concurrent alcohol use, and 31.2% reported concurrent use of energy drinks and alcohol. Relative to those who reported concurrent use of energy drinks with alcohol, and controlling for background characteristics and frequency of alcohol consumption, those who didn't use energy drinks and those who used without concurrent alcohol use had significantly lower binge drinking, negative consequences, and rates of alcohol use disorder (P energy drink without concurrent alcohol groups on any alcohol-related measure (P > .10 for all outcomes). Concurrent energy drink and alcohol use is associated with increased risk for negative alcohol consequences in young adults. Clinicians providing care to young adults could consider asking patients about concurrent energy drink and alcohol use as a way to begin a conversation about risky alcohol consumption while addressing 2 substances commonly used by this population.

  14. Relative level populations in S VI after beam-foil excitation, obtained from ANDC analyses of measured decay curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engstroem, L.

    1983-01-01

    This paper reports the relative population of the levels 3p, 3d, 4d, 5d, 4f, 5g, 6g, 6h, 7h, 7i, 8i and 8k in Na-like sulfur, S VI, after beam-foil excitation at an energy of 3 MeV. For the first time the ANDC technique has been used to obtain the relative efficiency calibration of the detection system at discrete points in the wavelength interval 400-5000 A, from the analyses of measured decay curves. The advantages and limitations of this method are discussed. The populations obtained with this new technique are compared to previous measurements in multiply ionized atoms. The preferential population of the 3p and 3d levels observed in other Na-like ions is now accurately established. For the higher lying levels an almost constant population is observed. (Auth.)

  15. Trampoline related injuries in children: risk factors and radiographic findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimek, Peter Michael; Juen, David; Stranzinger, Enno; Wolf, Rainer; Slongo, Theddy

    2013-05-01

    Backyard trampolines are immensely popular among children, but are associated with an increase of trampoline-related injuries. The aim of this study was to evaluate radiographs of children with trampoline related injuries and to determine the risk factors. Between 2003 and 2009, 286 children under the age of 16 with backyard trampoline injuries were included in the study. The number of injuries increased from 13 patients in 2003 to 86 in 2009. The median age of the 286 patients was 7 years (range: 1-15 years). Totally 140 (49%) patients were males, and 146 (51%) females. Medical records and all available diagnostic imaging were reviewed. A questionnaire was sent to the parents to evaluate the circumstances of each injury, the type of trampoline, the protection equipment and the experience of the children using the trampoline. The study was approved by the Institutional Ethics Committee of the University Hospital of Bern. The questionnaires and radiographs of the 104 patients were available for evaluation. A fracture was sustained in 51 of the 104 patients. More than 75% of all patients sustaining injuries and in 90% of patients with fractures were jumping on the trampoline with other children at the time of the accident. The most common fractures were supracondylar humeral fractures (29%) and forearm fractures (25%). Fractures of the proximal tibia occurred especially in younger children between 2-5 years of age. Children younger than 5 years old are at risk for specific proximal tibia fractures ("Trampoline Fracture"). A child jumping simultaneously with other children has a higher risk of suffering from a fracture.

  16. The capability concept – On how to define and describe capability in relation to risk, vulnerability and resilience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindbom, Hanna; Tehler, Henrik; Eriksson, Kerstin; Aven, Terje

    2015-01-01

    Capabilities-based planning and capability assessment are high on the agendas of several countries and organisations as part of their risk management and emergency preparedness. Despite this, few definitions of capability exist, and they are not easily related to concepts such as risk, vulnerability and resilience. The aim of the present study was thus to broaden the scientific basis of the risk field to also include the concept of capability. The proposed definition is based on a recently developed risk framework, and we define capability as the uncertainty about and the severity of the consequences of an activity given the occurrence of the initiating event and the performed task. We provide examples of how the response capability for a fictive scenario can be described using this definition, and illustrate how our definition can be used to analyse capability assessments prepared according to the Swedish crisis management system. We have analysed the content of 25 capability assessments produced in 2011 by stakeholders on local, regional and national level. It was concluded that none addressed uncertainty to any appreciable extent, and only a third described capability in terms of consequences and task, making it difficult to relate these capability assessments to risk assessments. - Highlights: • Few definitions of capability relate to definitions of risk, vulnerability and resilience. • We relate capability to risk, vulnerability and resilience. • We define capability using the components uncertainty, consequences, event and task

  17. Associations between food and beverage groups and major diet-related chronic diseases: an exhaustive review of pooled/meta-analyses and systematic reviews.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fardet, Anthony; Boirie, Yves

    2014-12-01

    Associations between food and beverage groups and the risk of diet-related chronic disease (DRCD) have been the subject of intensive research in preventive nutrition. Pooled/meta-analyses and systematic reviews (PMASRs) aim to better characterize these associations. To date, however, there has been no attempt to synthesize all PMASRs that have assessed the relationship between food and beverage groups and DRCDs. The objectives of this review were to aggregate PMASRs to obtain an overview of the associations between food and beverage groups (n = 17) and DRCDs (n = 10) and to establish new directions for future research needs. The present review of 304 PMASRs published between 1950 and 2013 confirmed that plant food groups are more protective than animal food groups against DRCDs. Within plant food groups, grain products are more protective than fruits and vegetables. Among animal food groups, dairy/milk products have a neutral effect on the risk of DRCDs, while red/processed meats tend to increase the risk. Among beverages, tea was the most protective and soft drinks the least protective against DRCDs. For two of the DRCDs examined, sarcopenia and kidney disease, no PMASR was found. Overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes, and various types of cardiovascular disease and cancer accounted for 289 of the PMASRs. There is a crucial need to further study the associations between food and beverage groups and mental health, skeletal health, digestive diseases, liver diseases, kidney diseases, obesity, and type 2 diabetes. © 2014 International Life Sciences Institute.

  18. Nuclear fuel cycle risk assessment: survey and computer compilation of risk-related literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yates, K.R.; Schreiber, A.M.; Rudolph, A.W.

    1982-10-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has initiated the Fuel Cycle Risk Assessment Program to provide risk assessment methods for assistance in the regulatory process for nuclear fuel cycle facilities other than reactors. Both the once-through cycle and plutonium recycle are being considered. A previous report generated by this program defines and describes fuel cycle facilities, or elements, considered in the program. This report, the second from the program, describes the survey and computer compilation of fuel cycle risk-related literature. Sources of available information on the design, safety, and risk associated with the defined set of fuel cycle elements were searched and documents obtained were catalogued and characterized with respect to fuel cycle elements and specific risk/safety information. Both US and foreign surveys were conducted. Battelle's computer-based BASIS information management system was used to facilitate the establishment of the literature compilation. A complete listing of the literature compilation and several useful indexes are included. Future updates of the literature compilation will be published periodically. 760 annotated citations are included

  19. Perceptions of risk from workers in high risk industries with work related musculoskeletal disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, D; Silverstein, B

    2014-01-01

    Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) remain a major occupational health problem, despite decades of research, outreach, and intervention. The aim of this study is to promote early identification and prevention of WMSDs by developing education and outreach materials grounded in interview data collected from workers that have recently filed for workers compensation (WC) for WMSDs. We conducted semi-structured telephone interviews with WC claimants (n=66) from high risk industries identified through the use of a Prevention Index (PI) in Washington state with WMSDs of the back, shoulder, hand/wrist, or knee. Perceptions regarding the degree of exposure to WMSD risk factors, the social construction of pain, and the potential to implement injury-prevention measures varied widely. Many workers dismissed their injuries as the result of "fluke" or "freak" occurrences and framed their exposure to risk factors for WMSDs as either inevitable or "just part of the job." Workers in high-risk industries for WMSDs described their work conditions in ways that suggested: (1) a lack of awareness of the potential for developing a WMSD, (2) a view of work-related pain as normal, and/or (3) a pattern of self-blame for WMSD onset. A paradigm that either asserts the inevitability of WMSDs or dismisses potential control measures presents both a significant barrier to injury prevention efforts as well as a major opportunity for future occupational health research.

  20. Autoantibodies to IA-2beta improve diabetes risk assessment in high-risk relatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Achenbach, P; Bonifacio, E; Williams, A J K

    2008-01-01

    -positive participants (median age 12.1 years; 57% male), 113 developed diabetes (5 year cumulative risk 56%), and 148 were also GADA-positive and IAA-positive (4Ab-positive). IA2betaA were detected in 137 (65%) ICA/IA2A-positive participants and were associated with an increased 5 year diabetes risk (IA2beta......A-positive 65 vs 39% in IA2betaA-negative, p=0.0002). The effect was most marked in 4Ab-positive relatives (72% vs 52%, p=0.003). Metabolic testing further refined risk assessment. Among 101 4Ab-positive relatives with IA2betaA, the 5 year risk was 94% in those with a low FPIR (vs 50% in those with a normal...... FPIR, p4Ab/IA2betaA-positive participants with a low FPIR was 1.5 years. Multivariate analysis confirmed IA2betaA status, antibody number, young...

  1. Risk Management in Supply Chain using Consistent Fuzzy Preference Relations

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad Jafarnejad; Mehran Ebrahimi; Mohammad Ali Abbaszadeh; Seyed Mehdi Abtahi

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, supply chains are exposed to numerous risks. Thus, to success in risky business environment, it is imperative for firms to systematically manage supply chain risks. Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of supply chain risks. The purpose of this paper is to propose a comprehensive approach to risk management in supply chains. Thus, by an appropriate review of the literature, supply chain risk sources are identified in six areas. Then, a CFPR method is...

  2. Identification of novel risk factors for community-acquired Clostridium difficile infection using spatial statistics and geographic information system analyses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deverick J Anderson

    Full Text Available The rate of community-acquired Clostridium difficile infection (CA-CDI is increasing. While receipt of antibiotics remains an important risk factor for CDI, studies related to acquisition of C. difficile outside of hospitals are lacking. As a result, risk factors for exposure to C. difficile in community settings have been inadequately studied.To identify novel environmental risk factors for CA-CDI.We performed a population-based retrospective cohort study of patients with CA-CDI from 1/1/2007 through 12/31/2014 in a 10-county area in central North Carolina. 360 Census Tracts in these 10 counties were used as the demographic Geographic Information System (GIS base-map. Longitude and latitude (X, Y coordinates were generated from patient home addresses and overlaid to Census Tracts polygons using ArcGIS; ArcView was used to assess "hot-spots" or clusters of CA-CDI. We then constructed a mixed hierarchical model to identify environmental variables independently associated with increased rates of CA-CDI.A total of 1,895 unique patients met our criteria for CA-CDI. The mean patient age was 54.5 years; 62% were female and 70% were Caucasian. 402 (21% patient addresses were located in "hot spots" or clusters of CA-CDI (p<0.001. "Hot spot" census tracts were scattered throughout the 10 counties. After adjusting for clustering and population density, age ≥ 60 years (p = 0.03, race (<0.001, proximity to a livestock farm (0.01, proximity to farming raw materials services (0.02, and proximity to a nursing home (0.04 were independently associated with increased rates of CA-CDI.Our study is the first to use spatial statistics and mixed models to identify important environmental risk factors for acquisition of C. difficile and adds to the growing evidence that farm practices may put patients at risk for important drug-resistant infections.

  3. A systematic review, and meta-analyses, of the impact of health-related claims on dietary choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaur, Asha; Scarborough, Peter; Rayner, Mike

    2017-07-11

    Health-related claims are statements regarding the nutritional content of a food (nutrition claims) and/or indicate that a relationship exists between a food and a health outcome (health claims). Their impact on food purchasing or consumption decisions is unclear. This systematic review measured the effect of health-related claims, on pre-packaged foods in retail settings, on adult purchasing decisions (real and perceived). In September 2016, we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, CAB abstracts, Business Source Complete, and Web of Science/Science Citation Index & Social Science Citation Index for articles in English published in peer-review journals. Studies were included if they were controlled experiments where the experimental group(s) included a health-related claim and the control group involved an identical product without a health-related claim. Included studies measured (at an individual or population level); actual or intended choice, purchases, and/or consumption. The primary outcome was product choices and purchases, the secondary outcome was food consumption and preference. Results were standardised through calculating odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the likelihood of choosing a product when a health-related claim was present. Results were combined in a random-effects meta-analysis. Thirty-one papers were identified, 17 of which were included for meta-analyses. Most studies were conducted in Europe (n = 17) and the USA (n = 7). Identified studies were choice experiments that measured the likelihood of a product being chosen when a claim was present compared to when a claim was not present, (n = 16), 15 studies were experiments that measured either; intent-rating scale outcomes (n = 8), consumption (n = 6), a combination of the two (n = 1), or purchase data (n = 1). Overall, 20 studies found that claims increase purchasing and/or consumption, eight studies had mixed results, and two studies found consumption

  4. El Niño-Southern Oscillation-based index insurance for floods: Statistical risk analyses and application to Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Abedalrazq F.; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Miranda, Mario J.; Skees, Jerry

    2007-10-01

    Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate-related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations, data are inadequate to develop an index because of short time series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the districts of Peru, Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many microenterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data are variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (1) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall, (2) the effect of sampling uncertainties and the strength of the proxy's association to local outcome, (3) the potential for clustering of payoffs, (4) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season, and (5) evidence

  5. Children at Risk for Suicide Attempt and Attempt-related Injuries: Findings from the 2007 Youth Risk Behavior Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    West, Bethany A

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The current study examines the associations between a range of risk factors and reports of suicide attempts, and attempts requiring medical care in a nationally representative study of high school students. The goal is to examine sex differences in the risk factors that are associated with suicide attempts and attempt-related injuries requiring treatment by a health-care provider. Methods: Data from the 2007 Youth Risk Behavior Survey for students in grades 9-12 were used to assess the prevalence and risk factors for suicidal behavior as well as differences in these for boys and girls. Cross-sectional multivariate logistic regression analyses were computed to determine the most important risk factors for suicide attempts and for suicide attempts requiring medical care for the sample overall and also stratified for boys and for girls. Results: Overall, 6.9% of adolescents attempted suicide (9.3% of girls versus 4.6% of boys. Girls were more likely than boys to report a suicide attempt in the past year (Adj.OR=2.89. Among girls, sadness (Adj.OR=5.74, weapon carrying (Adj.OR=1.48, dating violence (Adj.OR=1.60, forced sex (Adj.OR=1.72, and huffing glue (Adj.OR=2.04 were significantly associated with suicide attempts. Among boys, sadness (Adj.OR=10.96, weapon carrying (Adj.OR=1.66, forced sex (Adj.OR=2.60, huffing glue (OR=1.63, hard drug use (Adj.OR=2.18, and sports involvement (Adj.OR=1.52 were significantly associated with suicide attempts. Conclusions: These findings demonstrate similarities and differences in terms of the modifiable risk factors that increase risk for suicide attempts among boys and girls. In terms of the differences between boys and girls, hard drug use and sports involvement may be important factors for suicide prevention strategies that are directed specifically towards boys, while dating violence victimization may be an important risk factor to address for girls. Overall, these findings can help guide prevention

  6. Risk of ovarian cancer in women with first-degree relatives with cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soegaard, Marie; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Jensen, Allan

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of ovarian cancer in women with first-degree relatives with cancer at one of the four most frequent hereditary sites based on validated cancer diagnoses and to examine the association according to age at diagnosis of ovarian cancer and histology. DESIGN: Case......-control study. SETTING AND POPULATION: First-degree relatives of 554 women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and 1,564 controls were included. METHODS: Analyses were performed using multiple logistic regression models. RESULTS: Ovarian cancer in a first-degree relative was significantly associated...... with increased risk of ovarian cancer (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.4-4.1 (mother or sister)). Ovarian cancer in a first-degree relative appeared to be a stronger risk factor for early-onset (cancer than late-onset (OR, 5.3; 95% CI, 2.0-14.1 vs. OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.0-3.4). The positive association...

  7. Risk and Protective Factors for Intimate Partner Violence Against Women: Systematic Review and Meta-analyses of Prospective-Longitudinal Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakubovich, Alexa R; Stöckl, Heidi; Murray, Joseph; Melendez-Torres, G J; Steinert, Janina I; Glavin, Calla E Y; Humphreys, David K

    2018-07-01

    The estimated lifetime prevalence of physical or sexual intimate partner violence (IPV) is 30% among women worldwide. Understanding risk and protective factors is essential for designing effective prevention strategies. To quantify the associations between prospective-longitudinal risk and protective factors and IPV and identify evidence gaps. We conducted systematic searches in 16 databases including MEDLINE and PsycINFO from inception to June 2016. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42016039213). We included published and unpublished studies available in English that prospectively analyzed any risk or protective factor(s) for self-reported IPV victimization among women and controlled for at least 1 other variable. Three reviewers were involved in study screening. One reviewer extracted estimates of association and study characteristics from each study and 2 reviewers independently checked a random subset of extractions. We assessed study quality with the Cambridge Quality Checklists. When studies investigated the same risk or protective factor using similar measures, we computed pooled odds ratios (ORs) by using random-effects meta-analyses. We summarized heterogeneity with I 2 and τ 2 . We synthesized all estimates of association, including those not meta-analyzed, by using harvest plots to illustrate evidence gaps and trends toward negative or positive associations. Of 18 608 studies identified, 60 were included and 35 meta-analyzed. Most studies were based in the United States. The strongest evidence for modifiable risk factors for IPV against women were unplanned pregnancy (OR = 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.20, 1.31) and having parents with less than a high-school education (OR = 1.55; 95% CI = 1.10, 2.17). Being older (OR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.93, 0.98) or married (OR = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.87, 0.99) were protective. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic, meta-analytic review of all risk and

  8. Incidence and risk factors for central venous access port-related infection in Chinese cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ting-Yao; Lee, Kuan-Der; Chen, Ping-Tsung; Chen, Min-Chi; Chen, Yi-Yang; Huang, Cih-En; Kuan, Feng-Che; Chen, Chih-Cheng; Lu, Chang Hsien

    2015-11-01

    Cytotoxic chemotherapy via central venous access ports is an important part of the standard treatment for most cancers, but it is accompanied with the risk of infections. This study aimed to analyze the incidence and risk factors for central venous access port-related infection (CPI) among Chinese patients receiving cytotoxic chemotherapy. Between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2005 a total of 1391 cancer patients with 1449 totally implantable central venous access ports were evaluated. The log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards model were used for the analyses of risk factors. The overall CPI incidence rate was 0.21 per 1000 catheter-days. Hematological malignancies and head and neck cancer were associated with an increased risk of CPI (hazard ratio 4.00 and 4.11, respectively, both p risk of infection than for patients in a nonadjuvant setting (p ports. Implementation of an insertion bundle for the prevention of central line-associated bloodstream infections is warranted, especially for those patients with hematological and head and neck cancers, as well as for patients receiving chemotherapy in the metastatic settings. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. Dyslexia risk gene relates to representation of sound in the auditory brainstem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neef, Nicole E; Müller, Bent; Liebig, Johanna; Schaadt, Gesa; Grigutsch, Maren; Gunter, Thomas C; Wilcke, Arndt; Kirsten, Holger; Skeide, Michael A; Kraft, Indra; Kraus, Nina; Emmrich, Frank; Brauer, Jens; Boltze, Johannes; Friederici, Angela D

    2017-04-01

    Dyslexia is a reading disorder with strong associations with KIAA0319 and DCDC2. Both genes play a functional role in spike time precision of neurons. Strikingly, poor readers show an imprecise encoding of fast transients of speech in the auditory brainstem. Whether dyslexia risk genes are related to the quality of sound encoding in the auditory brainstem remains to be investigated. Here, we quantified the response consistency of speech-evoked brainstem responses to the acoustically presented syllable [da] in 159 genotyped, literate and preliterate children. When controlling for age, sex, familial risk and intelligence, partial correlation analyses associated a higher dyslexia risk loading with KIAA0319 with noisier responses. In contrast, a higher risk loading with DCDC2 was associated with a trend towards more stable responses. These results suggest that unstable representation of sound, and thus, reduced neural discrimination ability of stop consonants, occurred in genotypes carrying a higher amount of KIAA0319 risk alleles. Current data provide the first evidence that the dyslexia-associated gene KIAA0319 can alter brainstem responses and impair phoneme processing in the auditory brainstem. This brain-gene relationship provides insight into the complex relationships between phenotype and genotype thereby improving the understanding of the dyslexia-inherent complex multifactorial condition. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  10. A 3-Factor Model Relating Communication to Risk Mitigation of Extended Information System Failover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Podaras

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyse the relation between timely and effective communication and risk mitigation of late recovery after an unexpected information system outage in enterprises. An unforeseen information system failure in modern enterprise units, may result to significant operational and financial damage. In such a critical incident, effective communication between the team leaders and the recovery team involved, can minimize or even eliminate this negative impact. An extended information system outage can be perceived as a time deviation from the Maximum Accepted Outage (ΜΑΟ timeframe, proposed by the business continuity management, according to the value of which dependent business functions may be interrupted without any serious effects to the company. The paper examines the relation between 3 basic factors and the efficient communication between team members. The factors are: timely information distribution, staff availability and network availability. Through the current paper, the author proposes a risk analysis model, based on the Composite Risk Index theory of Risk Management, which can significantly diminish the possibility of an extended information system outage, as well as calculate the extended time required to recover a system when the aforementioned factors emerge in their worst form. The precise calculation of recovery time can be achieved via the execution of business continuity tests which include scenarios, according to which an unexpected system outage coexists with delayed information distribution as well as low staff and network availability.

  11. Evaluation of hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nankaku, Manabu; Kanzaki, Hideto; Tsuboyama, Tadao; Nakamura, Takashi

    2005-11-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction, and to elucidate factors that influence the impact force in falls on the hip. Eight healthy volunteers performed deliberate falls in three directions (lateral, posterolateral and posterior) on a force platform covered by a mattress of 13 cm thickness. Fall descent motions and impact postures were examined by a three-dimensional analyzer. The maximum ground force reaction, velocity of the greater trochanter at impact, and activity of quadriceps and gluteus medius were measured. In all trials of lateral and posterolateral falls, but not of posterior falls, the subjects hit their greater trochanter directly on the mattress. The impact forces were between 2,000 N and 4,000 N. Posterolateral falls showed significantly higher velocity at impact than did posterior falls. The height and the lower limb length exhibited positive correlations with the impact force in all directions of fall. In the lateral fall, there was a positive correlation between the activity of quadriceps and the impact force. In view of the impact point, force, and velocity, the posterolateral fall seemed to carry the highest risk of hip fracture.

  12. Demographic And Risk Factors Related To Military Tuberculosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rasolinejad

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aim: Tuberculosis is one the major health care problems in developing countries. Miliary tuberculosis is induced by blood dissemination of multiple tubercle bacilli, the paramount importance of accurate diagnosis of military tuberculosis is because of its dismal outcome if untreated and the chance of cure if diagnosis happens early in the course of the disorder. In this study we describe the demographic and risk factors related to military tuberculosis, which enables us to control and reduce the incidence of military tuberculosis. This ultimately reduces the mortality and morbidity consistent with this disorder. Materials and Methods: we conducted a retrospective case control study, which compares 28 patients with military tuberculosis and 56 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis as control. We reviewed all the patients' documents registered between years 1994-2004, after extracting raw data we analyzed them with chi-square and Fisher exact tests. Results and Conclusion: We found that HIV (P< 0.05 infection and lack of BCG vaccination (P< 0.05 increases the number of military tuberculosis among our patients. In addition we did not find any other significant risk factor.

  13. Literature search on risks related to ionizing radiations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abou Anoma, G.; Bijaoui, A.; Gauron, C.

    2013-09-01

    The authors propose a selection of information sources regarding risks related to ionizing radiations. They present knowledge bases which can be found on different Internet sites belonging to different bodies and agencies (IRSN, CEA, INRS, SFRP, CNRS, Radioprotection Cirkus, EDF) and in different books. They present information sources dealing with radionuclides which can be found in French and international Internet sites and in books, information sources concerning different professional activities and sectors (ASN, IRSN, INRS, medical-professional sheets proposed by the CISME, sheets proposed by the Labour Ministry and other bodies). It presents information sources dealing with radiological incidents, accidents and emergencies, dealing with radioactive wastes, with the legal European and French framework. Some additional tools of general or more detailed information are indicated (CIPR, IAEA, UNSCAR, IRPA, IRSN, SFRP, CEA, CEPN, Radiation Cirkus, books). Ways to get an updated search are indicated for different databases, as well as some practical services

  14. Exercise interventions for the improvement of falls-related outcomes among older adults with diabetes mellitus: A systematic review and meta-analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Anna; Meyer, Claudia; Renehan, Emma; Hill, Keith D; Browning, Colette J

    2017-03-01

    Falls as a complication of diabetes mellitus (DM) can have a major impact on the health of older adults. Previous reviews have demonstrated that certain exercise interventions are effective at reducing falls in older people; however, no studies have quantified the effectiveness of exercise interventions on falls-related outcomes among older adults with DM. A systematic search for all years to September 2015 identified available literature. Eligibility criteria included: appropriate exercise intervention/s; assessed falls-related outcomes; older adults with DM. Effect sizes were pooled using a random effects model. Positive effect sizes favoured the intervention. Ten RCTs were eligible for the meta-analyses. Exercise interventions were more effective than the control condition for static balance (0.53, 95% CI: 0.13 to 0.93), lower-limb strength (0.63, 95% CI: 0.09 to 1.18), and gait (0.59, 95% CI: 0.22 to 0.96). No RCTs assessed falls-risk; one RCT reported 12month falls-rate, with no differential treatment effect observed. Exercise interventions can improve certain falls-related outcomes among older adults with DM. Substantial heterogeneity and limited numbers of studies should be considered when interpreting results. Among older adults, where DM burden is increasing, exercise interventions may provide promising approaches to assist the improvement of falls-related outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Incidence and risk factors of infections complications related to implantable venous-access ports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shim, Ji Sue; Seo, Tae Seok; Song, Myung Gyu; Cha, In Ho; Kim, Jun Suk; Choi, Chul Won; Seo, Jae Hong; Oh, Sang Cheul

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence and risk factors of infections associated with implantable venous access ports (IVAPs.) From August 2003 through November 2011, 1747 IVAPs were placed in our interventional radiology suite. One hundred forty four IVAPs were inserted in patients with hematologic malignancy and 1603 IVAPs in patients with solid tumors. Among them, 40 ports (23 women and 17 men; mean age, 57.1 years; range, 13-83) were removed to treat port-related infections. We evaluated the incidence of port-related infection, patient characteristics, bacteriologic data, and patient progress. Univariable analyses (t test, chi-square test, and Fisher's exact test) and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for IVAP related infection. Overall, 40 (2.3%) of 1747 ports were removed for symptoms of infection with an incidence rate of 0.067 events/1000 catheter-days. According to the univariable study, the incidences of infection were seemingly higher in the patients who received the procedure during inpatient treatment (p = 0.016), the patients with hematologic malignancy (p = 0.041), and the patients receiving palliative chemotherapy (p = 0.022). From the multiple binary logistic regression, the adjusted odds ratios of infection in patients with hematologic malignancies and those receiving palliative chemotherapy were 7.769 (p = 0.001) and 4.863 (p = 0.003), respectively. Microorganisms were isolated from 26 (65%) blood samples, and two of the most causative organisms were found to be Staphylococcus (n = 10) and Candida species (n = 7). The underlying hematologic malignancy and the state of receiving palliative chemotherapy were the independent risk factors of IVAP-related infection.

  16. Incidence and risk factors of infections complications related to implantable venous-access ports

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shim, Ji Sue; Seo, Tae Seok; Song, Myung Gyu; Cha, In Ho; Kim, Jun Suk; Choi, Chul Won; Seo, Jae Hong; Oh, Sang Cheul [Korea University Guro Hospital, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-08-15

    The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence and risk factors of infections associated with implantable venous access ports (IVAPs.) From August 2003 through November 2011, 1747 IVAPs were placed in our interventional radiology suite. One hundred forty four IVAPs were inserted in patients with hematologic malignancy and 1603 IVAPs in patients with solid tumors. Among them, 40 ports (23 women and 17 men; mean age, 57.1 years; range, 13-83) were removed to treat port-related infections. We evaluated the incidence of port-related infection, patient characteristics, bacteriologic data, and patient progress. Univariable analyses (t test, chi-square test, and Fisher's exact test) and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for IVAP related infection. Overall, 40 (2.3%) of 1747 ports were removed for symptoms of infection with an incidence rate of 0.067 events/1000 catheter-days. According to the univariable study, the incidences of infection were seemingly higher in the patients who received the procedure during inpatient treatment (p = 0.016), the patients with hematologic malignancy (p = 0.041), and the patients receiving palliative chemotherapy (p = 0.022). From the multiple binary logistic regression, the adjusted odds ratios of infection in patients with hematologic malignancies and those receiving palliative chemotherapy were 7.769 (p = 0.001) and 4.863 (p = 0.003), respectively. Microorganisms were isolated from 26 (65%) blood samples, and two of the most causative organisms were found to be Staphylococcus (n = 10) and Candida species (n = 7). The underlying hematologic malignancy and the state of receiving palliative chemotherapy were the independent risk factors of IVAP-related infection.

  17. Are Youth Psychopathic Traits Related to Bullying? Meta-analyses on Callous-Unemotional Traits, Narcissism, and Impulsivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Geel, Mitch; Toprak, Fatih; Goemans, Anouk; Zwaanswijk, Wendy; Vedder, Paul

    2017-10-01

    In the current manuscript meta-analyses are performed to analyze the relations between three aspects of psychopathy in youth, Callous-Unemotional (CU) traits, Narcissism, and Impulsivity, and bullying behaviors. The databases PsycINFO, MEDLINE, ERIC, Web of Science and Proquest were searched for relevant articles on bullying and CU traits, Narcissism, or Impulsivity in youth under 20 years of age. Two authors each independently screened 842 studies that were found in the literature search. Two authors independently coded ten studies on bullying and CU (N = 4115) traits, six studies on bullying and Narcissism (N = 3376) and 14 studies on bullying and Impulsivity (N = 33,574) that met the inclusion criteria. Significant correlations were found between bullying and CU traits, Narcissism, and Impulsivity. These results were not affected by publication bias. Anti-bullying interventions could potentially benefit from including elements that have been found effective in the treatment of youth psychopathy.

  18. Exploratory multinomial logit model-based driver injury severity analyses for teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qiong; Zhang, Guohui; Ci, Yusheng; Wu, Lina; Tarefder, Rafiqul A; Alcántara, Adélamar Dely

    2016-05-18

    Teenage drivers are more likely to be involved in severely incapacitating and fatal crashes compared to adult drivers. Moreover, because two thirds of urban vehicle miles traveled are on signal-controlled roadways, significant research efforts are needed to investigate intersection-related teenage driver injury severities and their contributing factors in terms of driver behavior, vehicle-infrastructure interactions, environmental characteristics, roadway geometric features, and traffic compositions. Therefore, this study aims to explore the characteristic differences between teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes, identify the significant contributing attributes, and analyze their impacts on driver injury severities. Using crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011, 2 multinomial logit regression models were developed to analyze injury severities for teenage and adult drivers, respectively. Elasticity analyses and transferability tests were conducted to better understand the quantitative impacts of these factors and the teenage driver injury severity model's generality. The results showed that although many of the same contributing factors were found to be significant in the both teenage and adult driver models, certain different attributes must be distinguished to specifically develop effective safety solutions for the 2 driver groups. The research findings are helpful to better understand teenage crash uniqueness and develop cost-effective solutions to reduce intersection-related teenage injury severities and facilitate driver injury mitigation research.

  19. Work and diet-related risk factors of cardiovascular diseases: comparison of two occupational groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartung, Danielle; Stadeler, Martina; Grieshaber, Romano; Keller, Sylvia; Jahreis, Gerhard

    2010-03-22

    Although work related risk factors associated with Cardiovascular Diseases (CD) have been well researched, there is no detailed knowledge regarding disparate occupational groups each with a different risk exposition. Therefore, two occupational groups (chefs and office workers) were compared with a focus on nutritional and psychosocial factors. Two groups of subjects were tested for work and diet-related risks of CD (45 chefs and 48 office workers). The groups matched both for gender (male) and age (30 to 45 years). The study included a medical check-up, bioelectrical impedance analysis as well as an evaluation of questionnaires on health, nutritional behaviour and coping capacity. In addition, volunteers were required to compile a 7-day-dietary-record and collect their urine 24 h prior to their check-up. Blood samples drawn were analysed for glucose and lipid metabolism, homocysteine, vitamin B12, folic acid; C-reactive protein, uric acid, red blood cell fatty acids, plant sterols, antioxidative capacity and oxidative stress. On average, the chefs showed one risk factor more compared to the office workers. The most frequent risk factors in both groups included overweight/obesity (chef group [CG]: 62.2%; office group [OG]: 58.3%) and elevated TC (CG: 62.2%; OG: 43.8%]. Moreover, although the chefs often had higher CRP-concentrations (40.0%), more office workers suffered from hypertension (37.5%).Chefs showed significant higher concentrations of saturated fatty acids and oleic acid, whereas docosahexaenoic acid, Omega-6- and trans fatty acids were found more frequently in the red blood cell membranes of office workers. While there were no significant differences in analysed plant sterols between the two occupational groups, 7,8-dihydro-8-oxo-2'-deoxyguanosine was significantly increased in office workers.Concerning the work-related psychosocial factors, the chefs were characterised by a stronger subjective importance of work, a greater degree of professional

  20. Relative risk perception for terrorism: implications for preparedness and risk communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caponecchia, Carlo

    2012-09-01

    Terrorism presents a significant risk that is often approached at public policy, infrastructure, or emergency management level. Public perceptions of the likelihood of terrorist events, and how this may relate to individual preparedness, are not always extensively examined. The tendency to think that negative events are less likely to happen to oneself than to the average person is known as optimism bias. Optimism bias is relevant to perceptions of terrorism, because it is thought to be related to a reduction in precaution use. Using an online survey of 164 participants, this study aimed to determine whether Sydney residents thought they had a lower likelihood of experiencing terrorist events than other Australians. Significant optimism bias was observed for witnessing terrorist events, but not for personally experiencing terrorist events. In addition, Sydney residents tended to think that terrorist attacks were more likely to occur in Sydney than another major Australian city in the next five years. At the same time, household and workplace preparedness for terrorism was quite low, as was awareness of emergency strategies in the central business district. Perceptions of high likelihood of terrorism happening in one's own city, yet low preparedness present a challenge for risk communication and emergency management strategies. The diversity of possible terrorist targets, and the simple plans that can moderate the effects of a disaster may need to be emphasized in future anti-terrorism initiatives. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Public relations in risk communication: risk pr. The importance of public relations for risk communication; Public Relations in der Risikokommunikation: Risiko-PR. Die Bedeutung von Public Relations fuer die Risikokommunikation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehmann, K.

    2001-07-01

    Risks have become a central problem of our time, as is reflected in concepts like 'society at risk' and 'anti-technological attitude', in group protest against risks and against those who cause them, and last but not least in the critical attitude of the media. Against this background, organisations must needs enter the public discussion and be able to communicate professionally and convincingly in order to ensure their own success and further existence. The book describes the basic problems of risk research and risk communications and discusses inhowfar, and how, public relations strategies and instruments can help here. [German] Risiken werden verstaerkt zum Problem unserer Zeit. Das belegen nicht nur Begriffe wie 'Risikogesellschaft' und 'Technikfeindlichkeit', die in letzter Zeit an Bedeutung gewonnen haben, sondern auch und vor allem nachhaltige Proteste von engagierten Gruppierungen gegen Risiken und deren Verursacher oder auch die kritische Berichterstattung der Medien. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist es fuer Organisationen erforderlich, in die oeffentliche Auseinandersetzung um Risiken einzusteigen und hier professionell und ueberzeugend zu kommunizieren, um den Organisationserfolg und Organisationsbestand zu sichern. Die vorliegende Arbeit beschreibt die Grundprobleme der Risikoforschung und Risikokommunikation und diskutiert, ob und inwieweit Public Relations bei der Loesung dieser Probleme helfen koennen, da insbesondere Public Relations gezielt Strategien und Instrumente nutzen, um beispielsweise den Wissensstand der Oeffentlichkeit zu verbessern und den Dialog mit relevanten Teiloeffentlichkeiten zu foerdern. (orig.)

  2. Pathways and cost-risk-benefit analyses for INEL radioactively contaminated soil areas being evaluated for decontamination and decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapin, J.A.

    1980-12-01

    Several radioactively contaminated soil areas exist at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory; virtually all are contaminated with nuclides of cesium, strontium, and cobalt at low levels of activity. This study develops a method of analysis to determine cost effective alternatives for decommissioning these areas, considering risk to the workers and general public, as well as the benefits to be gained. Because much of the input data to the analysis is highly subjective and detailed radiological characterization of the soil areas is minimal, it was decided that an analysis based on a relative weighting method be employed. The results of this analysis constitute a relative prioritization list of the soil areas being considered for decommissioning as well as the recommended decommissioning alternatives. The results of this analysis indicate that, of the 46 areas considered, 11 should be left in place under protective storage and 16 should be left as is. Nineteen areas were not analyzed because they were either operational or characterization data were not available. These results are based on a maximum exposure to a member of the general population, through realistic exposure pathways, of 5 mrem/yr

  3. Contributions of polygenic risk for obesity to PTSD-related metabolic syndrome and cortical thickness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Erika J; Miller, Danielle R; Logue, Mark W; Sumner, Jennifer; Stoop, Tawni B; Leritz, Elizabeth C; Hayes, Jasmeet P; Stone, Annjanette; Schichman, Steven A; McGlinchey, Regina E; Milberg, William P; Miller, Mark W

    2017-10-01

    Research suggests that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and that PTSD-associated MetS is related to decreased cortical thickness. However, the role of genetic factors in these associations is unclear. This study evaluated contributions of polygenic obesity risk and PTSD to MetS and of MetS and polygenic obesity risk to cortical thickness. 196 white, non-Hispanic veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan underwent clinical diagnostic interviews, physiological assessments, and genome-wide genotyping; 168 also completed magnetic resonance imaging scans. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for obesity were calculated from results of a prior genome-wide association study (Speliotes et al., 2010) and PTSD and MetS severity factor scores were obtained. Obesity PRS (β=0.15, p=0.009) and PTSD (β=0.17, p=0.005) predicted MetS and interacted such that the association between PTSD and MetS was stronger in individuals with greater polygenic obesity risk (β=0.13, p=0.02). Whole-brain vertex-wise analyses suggested that obesity PRS interacted with MetS to predict decreased cortical thickness in left rostral middle frontal gyrus (β=-0.40, pobesity genetic risk increases stress-related metabolic pathology, and compounds the ill health effects of MetS on the brain. Genetic proclivity towards MetS should be considered in PTSD patients when prescribing psychotropic medications with adverse metabolic profiles. Results are consistent with a growing literature suggestive of PTSD-related accelerated aging. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  4. The Relationship between Musculoskeletal Symptoms and Work-related Risk Factors in Hotel Workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jin Woo; Lee, Ju Jong; Mun, Hyeon Je; Lee, Kyung-Jae; Kim, Joo Ja

    2013-10-11

    To identify work-related musculoskeletal symptoms and any associated work-related risk factors, focusing on structural labor factors among hotel workers. A total of 1,016 hotel workers (620 men and 396 women) were analyzed. The questionnaire surveyed participants' socio-demographics, health-related behaviors, job-related factors, and work-related musculoskeletal symptoms. Work-related musculoskeletal symptoms were assessed using the Nordic musculoskeletal questionnaire. All analyses were stratified by gender, and multiple logistic regression modeling was used to determine associations between work-related musculoskeletal symptoms and work-related risk factors. The risk of developing work-related musculoskeletal symptoms was 1.9 times higher among male workers in the kitchen department than males in the room department (OR = 1.92, 95% CI = 1.03-3.79), and 2.5 times higher among male workers with lower sleep satisfaction than those with higher sleep satisfaction (OR = 2.52, 95% CI = 1.57-4.04). All of the aforementioned cases demonstrated a statistically significant association with work-related musculoskeletal symptoms. Moreover, the risk of developing work-related musculoskeletal symptoms was 3.3 times higher among female workers aged between 30 and 34 than those aged 24 or younger (OR = 3.32, 95% CI = 1.56-7.04); 0.3 times higher among females in the back office department than those in the room department (OR = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.12-0.91); 1.6 times higher among females on shift schedules than those who were not (OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.02-2.59); 1.8 times higher among females who performed more intensive work than those who performed less intensive work (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.17-3.02), and; 2.1 times higher among females with lower sleep satisfaction than those with higher sleep satisfaction (OR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.34-3.50). All of the aforementioned cases also displayed a statistically significant association with work-related musculoskeletal symptoms. This study

  5. Acupuncture-Related Techniques for Psoriasis: A Systematic Review with Pairwise and Network Meta-Analyses of Randomized Controlled Trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Mei-Ling; Ko, Shu-Hua; Wang, Mei-Hua; Chi, Ching-Chi; Chung, Yu-Chu

    2017-12-01

    There has be a large body of evidence on the pharmacological treatments for psoriasis, but whether nonpharmacological interventions are effective in managing psoriasis remains largely unclear. This systematic review conducted pairwise and network meta-analyses to determine the effects of acupuncture-related techniques on acupoint stimulation for the treatment of psoriasis and to determine the order of effectiveness of these remedies. This study searched the following databases from inception to March 15, 2016: Medline, PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, EBSCO (including Academic Search Premier, American Doctoral Dissertations, and CINAHL), Airiti Library, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on the effects of acupuncture-related techniques on acupoint stimulation as intervention for psoriasis were independently reviewed by two researchers. A total of 13 RCTs with 1,060 participants were included. The methodological quality of included studies was not rigorous. Acupoint stimulation, compared with nonacupoint stimulation, had a significant treatment for psoriasis. However, the most common adverse events were thirst and dry mouth. Subgroup analysis was further done to confirm that the short-term treatment effect was superior to that of the long-term effect in treating psoriasis. Network meta-analysis identified acupressure or acupoint catgut embedding, compared with medication, and had a significant effect for improving psoriasis. It was noted that acupressure was the most effective treatment. Acupuncture-related techniques could be considered as an alternative or adjuvant therapy for psoriasis in short term, especially of acupressure and acupoint catgut embedding. This study recommends further well-designed, methodologically rigorous, and more head-to-head randomized trials to explore the effects of acupuncture-related techniques for treating psoriasis.

  6. Fall-related injuries in a nursing home setting: is polypharmacy a risk factor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranzini, Federico; Diurni, Marcello; Ceccon, Francesca; Poloni, Nicola; Cazzamalli, Sara; Costantini, Chiara; Colli, Cristiano; Greco, Laura; Callegari, Camilla

    2009-12-11

    Polypharmacy is regarded as an important risk factor for fallingand several studies and meta-analyses have shown an increased fall risk in users of diuretics, type 1a antiarrhythmics, digoxin and psychotropic agents. In particular, recent evidence has shown that fall risk is associated with the use of polypharmacy regimens that include at least one established fall risk-increasing drug, rather than with polypharmacy per se. We studied the role of polypharmacy and the role of well-known fall risk-increasing drugs on the incidence of injurious falls. A retrospective observational study was carried out in a population of elderly nursing home residents. An unmatched, post-stratification design for age class, gender and length of stay was adopted. In all, 695 falls were recorded in 293 residents. 221 residents (75.4%) were female and 72 (24.6%) male, and 133 (45.4%) were recurrent fallers. 152 residents sustained no injuries when they fell, whereas injuries were sustained by 141: minor in 95 (67.4%) and major in 46 (32.6%). Only fall dynamics (p = 0.013) and drugs interaction between antiarrhythmic or antiparkinson class and polypharmacy regimen (> or =7 medications) seem to represent a risk association for injuries (p = 0.024; OR = 4.4; CI 95% 1.21 - 15.36). This work reinforces the importance of routine medication reviews, especially in residents exposed to polypharmacy regimens that include antiarrhythmics or antiparkinson drugs, in order to reduce the risk of fall-related injuries during nursing home stays.

  7. Fall-related injuries in a nursing home setting: is polypharmacy a risk factor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colli Cristiano

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Polypharmacy is regarded as an important risk factor for fallingand several studies and meta-analyses have shown an increased fall risk in users of diuretics, type 1a antiarrhythmics, digoxin and psychotropic agents. In particular, recent evidence has shown that fall risk is associated with the use of polypharmacy regimens that include at least one established fall risk-increasing drug, rather than with polypharmacy per se. We studied the role of polypharmacy and the role of well-known fall risk-increasing drugs on the incidence of injurious falls. Methods A retrospective observational study was carried out in a population of elderly nursing home residents. An unmatched, post-stratification design for age class, gender and length of stay was adopted. In all, 695 falls were recorded in 293 residents. Results 221 residents (75.4% were female and 72 (24.6% male, and 133 (45.4% were recurrent fallers. 152 residents sustained no injuries when they fell, whereas injuries were sustained by 141: minor in 95 (67.4% and major in 46 (32.6%. Only fall dynamics (p = 0.013 and drugs interaction between antiarrhythmic or antiparkinson class and polypharmacy regimen (≥7 medications seem to represent a risk association for injuries (p = 0.024; OR = 4.4; CI 95% 1.21 - 15.36. Conclusion This work reinforces the importance of routine medication reviews, especially in residents exposed to polypharmacy regimens that include antiarrhythmics or antiparkinson drugs, in order to reduce the risk of fall-related injuries during nursing home stays.

  8. Analysing the causes of chronic cough: relation to diesel exhaust, ozone, nitrogen oxides, sulphur oxides and other environmental factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wagner Ulrich

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Air pollution remains a leading cause of many respiratory diseases including chronic cough. Although episodes of incidental, dramatic air pollution are relatively rare, current levels of exposure of pollutants in industrialized and developing countries such as total articles, diesel exhaust particles and common cigarette smoke may be responsible for the development of chronic cough both in children and adults. The present study analyses the effects of common environmental factors as potential causes of chronic cough. Different PubMed-based researches were performed that related the term cough to various environmental factors. There is some evidence that chronic inhalation of diesel can lead to the development of cough. For long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2, children were found to exhibit increased incidences of chronic cough and decreased lung function parameters. Although a number of studies did not show that outdoor pollution directly causes the development of asthma, they have demonstrated that high levels pollutants and their interaction with sunlight produce ozone (O3 and that repeated exposure to it can lead to chronic cough. In summary, next to the well-known air pollutants which also include particulate matter and sulphur dioxide, a number of other indoor and outdoor pollutants have been demonstrated to cause chronic cough and therefore, environmental factors have to be taken into account as potential initiators of both adult and pediatric chronic cough.

  9. Cancer in first-degree relatives and risk of testicular cancer in Denmark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordsborg, Rikke Baastrup; Meliker, Jaymie R.; Wohlfahrt, Jan; Melbye, Mads; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole

    2011-01-01

    Familial aggregation of testicular cancer has been reported consistently, but it is less clear if there is any association between risk of testicular cancer and other cancers in the family. We conducted a population based case-control study to examine the relationship between risk of testicular cancer and 22 different cancers in first-degree relatives. We included 3297 cases of testicular cancer notified to the Danish Cancer Registry between 1991 and 2003. 6594 matched controls were selected from the Danish Civil Registration System, which also provided the identity of 40,104 first-degree relatives of case and controls. Familial cancer was identified by linkage to the Danish Cancer Registry, and we used conditional logistic regression to analyse whether cancer among first-degree relatives was associated with higher risk of testicular cancer. Rate ratio (RR) for testicular cancer was 4.63 (95% CI: 2.41–8.87) when a father, 8.30(95% CI: 3.81–18.10) when a brother and 5.23 (95% CI: 1.35–20.26) when a son had testicular cancer compared with no familial testicular cancer. Results were similar when analyses were stratified by histologic subtypes of testicular cancer. Familial Non-Hodgkin lymphoma and oesophageal cancer were associated with testicular cancer; however these may be chance findings. The familial aggregation of testicular and possibly other cancers may be explained by shared genes and/or shared environmental factors, but the mutual importance of each of these is difficult to determine. PMID:21207375

  10. Events per variable for risk differences and relative risks using pseudo-observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan Nygaard; Andersen, Per Kragh; Parner, Erik Thorlund

    2014-01-01

    A method based on pseudo-observations has been proposed for direct regression modeling of functionals of interest with right-censored data, including the survival function, the restricted mean and the cumulative incidence function in competing risks. The models, once the pseudo-observations have...... been computed, can be fitted using standard generalized estimating equation software. Regression models can however yield problematic results if the number of covariates is large in relation to the number of events observed. Guidelines of events per variable are often used in practice. These rules...

  11. Relative risk site evaluation for buildings 7740 and 7741 Fort Campbell, Kentucky

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Last, G.V.; Gilmore, T.J.; Bronson, F.J.

    1998-01-01

    Buildings 7740 and 7741 are a part of a former nuclear weapon`s storage and maintenance facility located in the southeastern portion of Fort Campbell, Kentucky. This underground tunnel complex was originally used as a classified storage area beginning in 1949 and continuing until 1969. Staff from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory recently completed a detailed Relative Risk Site Evaluation of the facility. This evaluation included (1) obtaining engineering drawings of the facility and associated structures, (2) conducting detailed radiological surveys, (3) air sampling, (4) sampling drainage systems, and (5) sampling the underground wastewater storage tank. Ten samples were submitted for laboratory analysis of radionuclides and priority pollutant metals, and two samples submitted for analysis of volatile organic compounds. No volatile organic contaminants were detected using field instruments or laboratory analyses. However, several radionuclides and metals were detected in water and/or soil/sediment samples collected from this facility. Of the radionuclides detected, only {sup 226}Ra may have come from facility operations; however, its concentration is at least one order of magnitude below the relative-risk comparison value. Several metals (arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, copper, mercury, lead, and antimony) were found to exceed the relative-risk comparison values for water, while only arsenic, cadmium, and lead were found to exceed the relative risk comparison values for soil. Of these constituents, it is believed that only arsenic, beryllium, mercury, and lead may have come from facility operations. Other significant hazards posed by the tunnel complex include radon exposure and potentially low oxygen concentrations (<19.5% in atmosphere) if the tunnel complex is not allowed to vent to the outside air. Asbestos-wrapped pipes, lead-based paint, rat poison, and possibly a selenium rectifier are also present within the tunnel complex.

  12. On accounting difficulties: Risks related to nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plot, Emmanuelle; Vidal, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    An extreme risk has a very slight probability but potentially heavy consequences. Despite the existence of three accountancy methods for dealing with them (provisions, contingent liabilities and insurance), the transposition of such risks into financial statements is based on a sequential analysis of both the probability of the risk happening and the ability to estimate the effects. This method keeps us from taking into account risks with a highly uncertain probability of occurrence, such as accidents at nuclear power plants - independently of the 'amount' at stake. As management reports from firms concerned by nuclear risks show, the diffusion of qualitative information does not offset this gap in bookkeeping

  13. On accounting difficulties: risks related to nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plot, E.; Vidal, O.

    2014-01-01

    An extreme risk has a very slight probability but potentially heavy consequences. Despite the existence of 3 accountancy methods for dealing with them (provisions, contingent liabilities and insurance), the transposition of such risks into financial statements is based on a sequential analysis of both the probability of the risk happening and the ability to estimate the effects. This method keeps us from taking into account risks with a highly uncertain probability of occurrence, such as accidents at nuclear power plants - independently of the 'amount' at stake. As management reports from firms concerned by nuclear risks show, the diffusion of qualitative information does not offset this gap in bookkeeping. (authors)

  14. Relative risk models of lung cancer in uranium miners

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tomasek, L [National Radiation Protection Institute, Prague (Czech Republic); Placek, V [Inst. for Expertises and Emergencies, Pribram-Kamenna (Czech Republic)

    1996-12-31

    The study population of the S cohort (studies of underground miners of uranium and other substances as the source of information on long term effects of exposure to radon and its progeny) involve uranium miners, that started underground work at the Jachymov and Horni Slavkov mines in the period 1978-1959, and had worked at least for four years. A total 4320 men satisfied these criteria. During the decade up to 1990, follow-up of the cohort mainly relied on the national population registry. In order to improve the follow-u, a series of additional checks were conducted: in the files of the Czech and Slovak Pensions Offices, by local enquires, and by direct correspondence. These additional efforts resulted in an increase of more than 10% in the numbers of known men to have died or emigrated. An exceptional feature of the S study is the large number of measurements of radon concentrations made in each mine-shaft (mean number per year and shaft was 223 in the period 1949-1960). Each man`s annual exposures to radon progeny in terms of working levels were estimated combining measurement data with men`s employment details. The excess relative risk models were used in the form RR = c(1 + ERR(w,x)), where ERR is excess relative risk, w and x denote exposure history and modifying variable, and c is an intercept term that allows the mortality rate for `unexposed` cohort to differ from that in the general population. The increased mortality (O/E=1.58; where O is observed and E is expected cases among collected death cases in the cohort) in the cohort, generally, somewhat lower ratios than one reflect the non-industrial character of the region, with the exception of lung cancer in man. The differences in the O/E ratios for lung cancer among the separate communities indicate that even in the situation of generally lower mortality, the dependence of lung cancer mortality on radon exposure cannot be excluded. 3 tabs., 6 refs.

  15. Risk factors for age-related maculopathy in a 14-year follow-up study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buch, Helena; Vinding, Troels; la Cour, Morten

    2005-01-01

    To examine the association between potential risk factors and the 14-year incidence of age-related maculopathy (ARM).......To examine the association between potential risk factors and the 14-year incidence of age-related maculopathy (ARM)....

  16. Three Studies Point to Same Risk Gene for Age-Related Macular Degeneration

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... point to same risk gene for age-related macular degeneration NIH-funded research helps unravel the biology of ... rare, but powerful risk factor for age-related macular degeneration (AMD), a common cause of vision loss in ...

  17. Childhood body mass index in relation to future risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cook, M B; Freedman, N D; Gamborg, M

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Middle-aged obese adults are at substantially elevated risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma. It is unclear whether this risk originates earlier in life. METHODS: We assessed associations between childhood body mass index (BMI) and height-measured annually between ages 7 and 13-with adult....... RESULTS: During 5.4 million person-years of follow-up, 254 (216 males) incident oesophageal adenocarcinomas occurred. At each examined age, cancer risk increased linearly per unit BMI z-score, although associations were only statistically significant for ages 9-13. The HR for the age of 13 years was 1.......31 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.51) per unit BMI z-score. Associations were similar in men and women and across birth cohorts. Childhood height was not related to cancer risk in men but was in women, although these analyses included just 38 female cases. HRs per unit height z-score at the age of 13 years were 1...

  18. Cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit analyses of risk-based screening strategies for breast cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ester Vilaprinyo

    Full Text Available The one-size-fits-all paradigm in organized screening of breast cancer is shifting towards a personalized approach. The present study has two objectives: 1 To perform an economic evaluation and to assess the harm-benefit ratios of screening strategies that vary in their intensity and interval ages based on breast cancer risk; and 2 To estimate the gain in terms of cost and harm reductions using risk-based screening with respect to the usual practice. We used a probabilistic model and input data from Spanish population registries and screening programs, as well as from clinical studies, to estimate the benefit, harm, and costs over time of 2,624 screening strategies, uniform or risk-based. We defined four risk groups, low, moderate-low, moderate-high and high, based on breast density, family history of breast cancer and personal history of breast biopsy. The risk-based strategies were obtained combining the exam periodicity (annual, biennial, triennial and quinquennial, the starting ages (40, 45 and 50 years and the ending ages (69 and 74 years in the four risk groups. Incremental cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit ratios were used to select the optimal strategies. Compared to risk-based strategies, the uniform ones result in a much lower benefit for a specific cost. Reductions close to 10% in costs and higher than 20% in false-positive results and overdiagnosed cases were obtained for risk-based strategies. Optimal screening is characterized by quinquennial or triennial periodicities for the low or moderate risk-groups and annual periodicity for the high-risk group. Risk-based strategies can reduce harm and costs. It is necessary to develop accurate measures of individual risk and to work on how to implement risk-based screening strategies.

  19. About some aspects of weather related risks in Spanish Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anton, J. M.; Tarquis, A. M.; Grau, J. B.; Saa, A.; Diaz, M. C.

    2009-04-01

    aggressive floods in 1500-1800 era, and actual added trends of "climate change" are towards higher temperatures, less water and higher perturbations. These long term risks are rather poorly predictable and will be handled mostly by improvements in agriculture and also by social and economic adaptations, but at shorter delays and specific areas active policies are possible and exist. An agribusiness can set his production plans lowering his global risk. Sometimes it might use prudently some financial instruments, such as "orange juice futures". When using decision making models, some utility functions may consider that severe losses have higher effects than good profits, letting ranges for business margins for insurers to be limited by concurrence at correct levels. Correct availability of credits is necessary for bad periods, and also state policies for rare bad situations, concerning agribusiness survival and also alimentary safety. Insurance products are effective aids for a growing variety of well definite natural risks, such as in cases of hailstorm, that have probabilities of occurrence measurable from previous events data, and a variety of adequate professional models are continuously made for them. Related to Universidad Politecnica de Madrid the CEIGRAM institute has started recently and is involved in agricultural insurance, being connected with insurers through ENESA and AGROMUTUA. That world is active, important, evolving, and is regulated by diverse laws.

  20. Potential mediating pathways through which sports participation relates to reduced risk of suicidal ideation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taliaferro, Lindsay A; Rienzo, Barbara A; Miller, M David; Pigg, R Morgan; Dodd, Virginia J

    2010-09-01

    Suicide ranks as the third leading cause of death for American youth. Researchers examining sport participation and suicidal behavior have regularly found inverse relationships. This study represents the first effort to test a model depicting potential mechanisms through which sport participation relates to reduced risk of suicidal ideation. The participants were 450 undergraduate students. Measures assessed participants' involvement in university-run sports and other activities; frequency of physical activity; and perceived social support, self-esteem, depression, hopelessness, loneliness, and suicidal ideation. Regression analyses confirmed a path model and tested for mediation effects. Vigorous activity mediated relationships between sport participation and self-esteem and depression; and self-esteem and depression mediated the relationship between vigorous activity and suicidal ideation. Social support mediated relationships between sport participation and depression, hopelessness, and loneliness; and each of these risk factors partially mediated the relationship between social support and suicidal ideation. However no variable fully mediated the relationship between sport participation and suicidal ideation. This study provides a foundation for research designed to examine pathways through which sport participation relates to reduced risk of suicidal behavior.

  1. Perception of radiation related risks among three population groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihai, L.T.; Milu, C.; Voicu, B.; Enachescu, D.

    2003-01-01

    A questionnaire survey was conducted among three groups that mainly differ in socioeconomic status and professional exposure to ionizing radiations. Seventy-seven (26.3%) of the respondents were professionally exposed to radiation, 35 (11.9%) were medical doctors without professional exposure and 177 (68.4%) belonged to the general population group. The level of anxiety toward radiation, expressed as a concernedness index, is significantly lower in people who are professionally exposed to radiation compared to medical doctors and general population (0.81±0.94, 1.42±1.21 and 1.72±1.34 respectively, p < 0.001). In a similar manner, concernedness index values varied with the education status, with lowest values among medical university graduates and highest among public school graduates (p < 0.001). Both university-graduated groups significantly differ from the non-university groups (p < 0.05). Knowledge about radiation and knowledge about emergency plans in nuclear accident/incident were also checked in relation with concernedness, the results confirming the hypothesis that better knowledge associates lower concernedness. The extent to which people accept the civil utilization of nuclear power is also related to concernedness and knowledge, significant associations having been found. The results suggest that a political decision in radiation matter requires a valid analysis of the public's understanding and acceptance. For that reason, it is important that radiological protection authorities develop new plans and materials for communicating with people, in order to improve knowledge upon ionizing radiation, irradiation risks and safety of nuclear energy application for civil purposes. (author)

  2. Risks and safety aspects related to PET/MR examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brix, Gunnar; Nekolla, Elke A.; Nosske, Dietmar; Griebel, Juergen

    2009-01-01

    The introduction of positron emission tomography (PET)/magnetic resonance (MR) systems into medical practice in the foreseeable future may not only lead to a gain in clinical diagnosis compared to PET/computed tomography (CT) imaging due to the superior soft-tissue contrast of the MR technology but can also substantially reduce exposure of patients to ionizing radiation. On the other hand, there are also risks and health effects associated with the use of diagnostic MR devices that have to be considered carefully. This review article summarizes biophysical and biological aspects, which are of relevance for the assessment of health effects related to the exposure of patients to both ionizing radiation in PET and magnetic and electromagnetic fields in MR. On this basis, some considerations concerning the justification and optimization of PET/MR examinations are presented - as far as this is possible at this very early stage. Current safety standards do not take into account synergistic effects of ionizing radiation and magnetic and electromagnetic fields. In the light of the developing PET/MR technology, there is an urgent need to investigate this aspect in more detail for exposure levels that will occur at PET/MR systems. (orig.)

  3. E-cigarette use is differentially related to smoking onset among lower risk adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Thomas A; Sargent, James D; Gibbons, Frederick X; Pagano, Ian; Schweitzer, Rebecca

    2016-09-01

    E-cigarette use has been linked to onset of cigarette smoking among adolescents, but some commentators have suggested that this simply reflects high-risk adolescents being more likely to use e-cigarettes and to smoke. We tested whether the effect of e-cigarette use for smoking onset differs for youth who are lower versus higher on propensity to smoke. School-based survey with a longitudinal sample of 1136 students (9th-11th graders, mean age 14.7 years) in Hawaii, initially surveyed in 2013 (T1) and followed up 1 year later (T2). We assessed e-cigarette use, propensity to smoke based on 3 psychosocial factors known to predict smoking (rebelliousness, parental support and willingness to smoke), and cigarette smoking status. Analyses based on T1 never-smokers tested the relation of T1 e-cigarette use to T2 smoking status for participants lower versus higher on T1 propensity to smoke. The relation between T1 e-cigarette use and T2 smoking onset was stronger among participants with lower levels of rebelliousness and willingness and higher levels of parental support. A multiple logistic regression analysis with T2 smoking as the criterion tested the cross-product of T1 e-cigarette use and T1 smoking propensity score; the interaction (OR=0.88, p=0.01) indicated a significantly larger effect for smoking onset among lower risk youth. The results indicate e-cigarette use is a risk factor for smoking onset, not just a marker of high risk for smoking. This study provides evidence that e-cigarettes are recruiting lower risk adolescents to smoking, which has public health implications. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  4. Cancer risks related to low-level RF/MW exposures, including cell phones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szmigielski, Stanislaw

    2013-09-01

    For years, radiofrequency (RF) and microwave (MW) radiations have been applied in the modern world. The rapidly increasing use of cellular phones called recent attention to the possible health risks of RF/MW exposures. In 2011, a group of international experts organized by IARC (International Agency for Research on Cancer in Lyon) concluded that RF/MW radiations should be listed as a possible carcinogen (group 2B) for humans. Three meta-analyses of case-control studies have concluded that using cell phones for more than ten years was associated with an increase in the overall risk of developing a brain tumor. The Interphone Study, the largest health-related case-control international study of use of cell phones and head and neck tumors, showed no statistically significant increases in brain cancers related to higher amounts of cell phone use, but excess risk in a small subgroup of more heavily exposed users associated with latency and laterality was reported. So far, the published studies do not show that mobile phones could for sure increase the risk of cancer. This conclusion is based on the lack of a solid biological mechanism, and the fact that brain cancer rates are not going up significantly. However, all of the studies so far have weaknesses, which make it impossible to entirely rule out a risk. Mobile phones are still a new technology and there is little evidence about effects of long-term use. For this reason, bioelectromagnetic experts advise application of a precautionary resources. It suggests that if people want to use a cell phone, they can choose to minimize their exposure by keeping calls short and preferably using hand-held sets. It also advises discouraging children from making non essential calls as well as also keeping their calls short.

  5. Age-related macular degeneration: the importance of family history as a risk factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahid, Humma; Khan, Jane C; Cipriani, Valentina; Sepp, Tiina; Matharu, Baljinder K; Bunce, Catey; Harding, Simon P; Clayton, David G; Moore, Anthony T; Yates, John R W

    2012-03-01

    Family history is considered a risk factor for age-related macular degeneration (AMD). With the advent of effective therapy for the disease, the importance of family history merits further investigation. This study quantifies the risk associated with family history, first, by a case-control study of reported family history and, second, by examining the siblings of AMD cases. The authors recruited cases with advanced AMD, spouses and siblings. All subjects were carefully phenotyped. Clinical findings in the siblings were compared with spouses. Information about family history was collected. The ORs for reported family history of AMD were calculated. Analyses were adjusted for age, smoking and genotype. 495 AMD cases, 259 spouses and 171 siblings were recruited. The OR for AMD was 27.8 (CI 3.8 to 203.0; p=0.001) with a reported family history of an affected parent and 12.0 (CI 3.7 to 38.6; p<0.0001) with a history of an affected sibling. ORs adjusted for age and smoking were higher. Examination of siblings confirmed their increased risk with 23% affected by AMD and an OR of 10.8 (4.5 to 25.8; p<0.0001). Adjusting for age increased the OR to 16.1 (6.2 to 41.8). The risk of AMD is greatly increased by having an affected first-degree relative. Those at risk need to be made aware of this and AMD patients should advise siblings and children to seek prompt ophthalmological advice if they develop visual symptoms of distortion or reduced vision.

  6. Fall-related injuries in a nursing home setting: is polypharmacy a risk factor?

    OpenAIRE

    Baranzini, Federico; Diurni, Marcello; Ceccon, Francesca; Poloni, Nicola; Cazzamalli, Sara; Costantini, Chiara; Colli, Cristiano; Greco, Laura; Callegari, Camilla

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background Polypharmacy is regarded as an important risk factor for fallingand several studies and meta-analyses have shown an increased fall risk in users of diuretics, type 1a antiarrhythmics, digoxin and psychotropic agents. In particular, recent evidence has shown that fall risk is associated with the use of polypharmacy regimens that include at least one established fall risk-increasing drug, rather than with polypharmacy per se. We studied the role of polypharmacy and the role ...

  7. Concept analysis of risk in relation to coronary heart disease among Filipino-Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalusung-Angosta, Alona

    2010-01-01

    To analyze the concept of risk in relation to coronary heart disease (CHD) among Filipino-Americans (FAs) and provide a new definition of risk. Published literature. This concept analysis provided a new meaning of risk in relation to CHD among FAs and shed light on further understanding of risk. Risk has been laced with negativity in health care, but based on the current literature, risk can be conceptualized in a positive perspective, especially in the area of chronic health disease such as CHD. However, further research is needed in the conceptualization of risk related to CHD for consistency, adequacy, and meaning. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Cognitive patterns in relation to biomarkers of cerebrovascular disease and vascular risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miralbell, Júlia; López-Cancio, Elena; López-Oloriz, Jorge; Arenillas, Juan Francisco; Barrios, Maite; Soriano-Raya, Juan José; Galán, Amparo; Cáceres, Cynthia; Alzamora, Maite; Pera, Guillem; Toran, Pere; Dávalos, Antoni; Mataró, Maria

    2013-01-01

    Risk factors for vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) are the same as traditional risk factors for cerebrovascular disease (CVD). Early identification of subjects at higher risk of VCI is important for the development of effective preventive strategies. In addition to traditional vascular risk factors (VRF), circulating biomarkers have emerged as potential tools for early diagnoses, as they could provide in vivo measures of the underlying pathophysiology. While VRF have been consistently linked to a VCI profile (i.e., deficits in executive functions and processing speed), the cognitive correlates of CVD biomarkers remain unclear. In this population-based study, the aim was to study and compare cognitive patterns in relation to VRF and circulating biomarkers of CVD. The Barcelona-AsIA Neuropsychology Study included 747 subjects older than 50, without a prior history of stroke or coronary disease and with a moderate to high vascular risk (mean age, 66 years; 34.1% women). Three cognitive domains were derived from factoral analysis: visuospatial skills/speed, verbal memory and verbal fluency. Multiple linear regression was used to assess relationships between cognitive performance (multiple domains) and a panel of circulating biomarkers, including indicators of inflammation, C-reactive protein (CRP) and resistin, endothelial dysfunction, asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA), thrombosis, plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1), as well as traditional VRF, metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance (homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance index). Analyses were adjusted for age, gender, years of education and depressive symptoms. Traditional VRF were related to lower performance in verbal fluency, insulin resistance accounted for lower performance in visuospatial skills/speed and the metabolic syndrome predicted lower performance in both cognitive domains. From the biomarkers of CVD, CRP was negatively related to verbal fluency performance and increasing ADMA

  9. Relations between radiation risks and radiation protection measuring techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, K.; Kraus, W.

    1975-10-01

    'Risk of damage' and 'exposure risk' are considered as components of the radiation risk. The influence of the 'exposure risk' on type and extent of radiation protection measurements is discussed with regard to different measuring tasks. Basing upon measuring results concerning the frequency of certain external and internal occupational exposures in the GDR, it has been shown that only a small fraction of the monitored persons are subjected to a high 'exposure risk'. As a consequence the following recommendations are given for discussion: (a) occupationally exposed persons with small 'exposure risk' should be monitored using only a long-term dosimeter (for instance a thermoluminescence dosimeter), (b) in the case of internal exposure the surface and, if necessary, air contamination should be controlled so strictly that routine measurements of internal contamination need not be performed. (author)

  10. Using risk analysis in Health Impact Assessment: the impact of different relative risks for men and women in different socio-economic groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilunger, Louise; Diderichsen, Finn; Burström, Bo

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study is to contribute to the emerging field of quantification of Health Impact Assessment (HIA), by analysing how different relative risks affect the burden of disease for various socio-economic groups (SES). Risk analysis, utilising attributable and impact fraction, raises several...... methodological considerations. The present study illustrates this by measuring the impact of changed distribution levels of smoking on lung cancer, ischemic heart disease (IHD), chronic obstructive lung disorder (COLD) and stroke for the highest and lowest socio-economic groups measured in disability adjusted...... the highest and lowest socio-economic groups may decrease by 75% or increase by 21% depending on the size of the relative risk. Assuming the same smoking prevalence for the lowest socio-economic group as for the highest (impact fraction), then the inequality may decrease by 7-26%. Consequently, the size...

  11. Mediators of the Relation Between Community Violence and Sexual Risk Behavior Among Adults Attending a Public Sexually Transmitted Infection Clinic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senn, Theresa E; Walsh, Jennifer L; Carey, Michael P

    2016-07-01

    Prior research shows that violence is associated with sexual risk behavior, but little is known about the relation between community violence (i.e., violence that is witnessed or experienced in one's neighborhood) and sexual risk behavior. To better understand contextual influences on HIV risk behavior, we asked 508 adult patients attending a publicly funded STI clinic in the U.S. (54 % male, M age = 27.93, 68 % African American) who were participating in a larger trial to complete a survey assessing exposure to community violence, sexual risk behavior, and potential mediators of the community violence-sexual risk behavior relation (i.e., mental health, substance use, and experiencing intimate partner violence). A separate sample of participants from the same trial completed measures of sexual behavior norms, which were aggregated to create measures of census tract sexual behavior norms. Data analyses controlling for socioeconomic status revealed that higher levels of community violence were associated with more sexual partners for men and with more episodes of unprotected sex with non-steady partners for women. For both men and women, substance use and mental health mediated the community violence-sexual risk behavior relation; in addition, for men only, experiencing intimate partner violence also mediated this relation. These results confirm that, for individuals living in communities with high levels of violence, sexual risk reduction interventions need to address intimate partner violence, substance use, and mental health to be optimally effective.

  12. Midlife Work-Related Stress Increases Dementia Risk in Later Life: The CAIDE 30-Year Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sindi, Shireen; Hagman, Göran; Håkansson, Krister; Kulmala, Jenni; Nilsen, Charlotta; Kåreholt, Ingemar; Soininen, Hilkka; Solomon, Alina; Kivipelto, Miia

    2017-10-01

    To investigate the associations between midlife work-related stress and mild cognitive impairment (MCI), dementia, and Alzheimer's disease later in life, in a large representative population. Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia (CAIDE) study participants were randomly selected from independent population-based surveys (mean age 50 years). A random sample of 2,000 individuals was invited for two reexaminations including cognitive tests (at mean age 71 and mean age 78), and 1,511 subjects participated in at least one reexamination (mean follow-up 28.5 years). Work-related stress was measured using two questions on work demands that were administered in midlife. Analyses adjusted for important confounders. Higher levels of midlife work-related stress were associated with higher risk of MCI (odds ratio [OR], 1.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-1.76), dementia (OR, 1.53; CI, 1.13-2.07), and Alzheimer's disease (OR, 1.55; CI, 1.19-2.36) at the first follow-up among the CAIDE participants. Results remained significant after adjusting for several possible confounders. Work-related stress was not associated with MCI and dementia during the extended follow-up. Midlife work-related stress increases the risk for MCI, dementia, and Alzheimer's disease in later life. The association was not seen after the extended follow-up possibly reflecting selective survival/participation, heterogeneity in dementia among the oldest old, and a critical time window for the effects of midlife stress. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

    1988-08-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented

  14. Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

    1988-08-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented.

  15. Scientific information and the Tongass land management plan: key findings derived from the scientific literature, species assessments, resource analyses, workshops, and risk assessment panels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas N. Swanston; Charles G. Shaw; Winston P. Smith; Kent R. Julin; Guy A. Cellier; Fred H. Everest

    1996-01-01

    This document highlights key items of information obtained from the published literature and from specific assessments, workshops, resource analyses, and various risk assessment panels conducted as part of the Tongass land management planning process. None of this information dictates any particular decision; however, it is important to consider during decisionmaking...

  16. A systematic review and meta-Analyses show that carbapenem use and medical devices are the leading risk factors for carbapenem- resistant pseudomonas aeruginosa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.F. Voor (Anne); J.A. Severin (Juliëtte); E.M.E.H. Lesaffre (Emmanuel); M.C. Vos (Margreet)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractA systematic review and meta-Analyses were performed to identify the risk factors associated with carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa and to identify sources and reservoirs for the pathogen. A systematic search of PubMed and Embase databases from 1 January 1987 until 27 January

  17. Interruption of antiretroviral therapy and risk of cardiovascular disease in persons with HIV-1 infection: exploratory analyses from the SMART trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phillips, Andrew N; Carr, Andrew; Neuhaus, Jacquie

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The SMART trial found a raised risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in patients undergoing CD4+ T cell-count guided intermittent antiretroviral therapy (ART) compared with patients on continuous ART. Exploratory analyses were performed to better understand the reasons for this ...

  18. Incremental Validity Analyses of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version in a Civil Psychiatric Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edens, John F.; Skeem, Jennifer L.; Douglas, Kevin S.

    2006-01-01

    This study compares two instruments frequently used to assess risk for violence, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV), in a large sample of civil psychiatric patients. Despite a strong bivariate relationship with community violence, the VRAG could not improve on the predictive validity…

  19. Response to Ecological Risk Assessment Forum Request for Information on the Benefits of PCB Congener-Specific Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    In August, 2001, the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF) submitted a formal question to the Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) on the benefits of evaluating PCB congeners in environmental samples. This question was developed by ERAF members Bruce Duncan and Cla...

  20. Medicine and ionizing rays: a help sheet in analysing risks in intra-oral dental radiology and applicable texts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2009-01-01

    This document proposes a synthesis of useful knowledge for radioprotection in the case of intra-oral dental radiology. In the first part, several aspects are considered: the concerned personnel, the course of treatment procedures, the hazards, the identification of the risk associated with ionizing radiation, the risk assessment and the determination of exposure levels, the strategy to control the risks (reduction of risks, technical measures concerning the installation or the personnel, teaching and information, prevention and medical monitoring), and risk control assessment. A second part indicates the various applicable legal and regulatory texts (European directives, institutions in charge of radioprotection, general arrangements applicable to workers and patients, and regulatory texts concerning worker protection or patient protection against ionizing radiations)

  1. Reactor siting risk comparisons related to recommendations of NUREG-0625

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barsell, A.W.; Dombek, F.S.; Orvis, D.D.

    1980-11-01

    This document evaluates how implementing the remote siting recommendations for nuclear reactors (NUREG-0625) made by the Siting Policy Task Force of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) can reduce potential public risk. The document analyzes how population density affects site-specific risk for both light water reactors (LWRs) and high-temperature gas-cooled reactors

  2. RELATIVE PROLIFERATION RISKS FOR NUCLEAR FUEL LEASING ARRANGEMENT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CHENG, L.Y.; YUE, M.; BARI, R.A.

    2007-01-01

    The present study demonstrates a probabilistic approach to quantify the proliferation risks of fuel leasing and recycling. A Markov model approach is applied to evaluate the probability of proliferation success by diversion or theft. Proliferation risk is calculated as a product of the probability of success and the corresponding consequences

  3. Elderly Taiwanese's Intrinsic Risk Factors for Fall-related Injuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    In-Fun Li

    2016-09-01

    Conclusion: Elderly Taiwanese inpatients with existing intrinsic conditions of cancer, vertigo, and lower leg weakness were at high risk of falling, resulting in severe injuries. Additional research including controlled trials is necessary to further identify treatable, causal intrinsic risk factors for this elderly group.

  4. Associations between retinol-binding protein 4 and cardiometabolic risk factors and subclinical atherosclerosis in recently postmenopausal women: cross-sectional analyses from the KEEPS study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Gary

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The published literature regarding the relationships between retinol-binding protein 4 (RBP4 and cardiometabolic risk factors and subclinical atherosclerosis is conflicting, likely due, in part, to limitations of frequently used RBP4 assays. Prior large studies have not utilized the gold-standard western blot analysis of RBP4 levels. Methods Full-length serum RBP4 levels were measured by western blot in 709 postmenopausal women screened for the Kronos Early Estrogen Prevention Study. Cross-sectional analyses related RBP4 levels to cardiometabolic risk factors, carotid artery intima-media thickness (CIMT, and coronary artery calcification (CAC. Results The mean age of women was 52.9 (± 2.6 years, and the median RBP4 level was 49.0 (interquartile range 36.9-61.5 μg/mL. Higher RBP4 levels were weakly associated with higher triglycerides (age, race, and smoking-adjusted partial Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.10; P = 0.01, but were unrelated to blood pressure, cholesterol, C-reactive protein, glucose, insulin, and CIMT levels (all partial Spearman correlation coefficients ≤0.06, P > 0.05. Results suggested a curvilinear association between RBP4 levels and CAC, with women in the bottom and upper quartiles of RBP4 having higher odds of CAC (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] 2.10 [1.07-4.09], 2.00 [1.02-3.92], 1.64 [0.82-3.27] for the 1st, 3rd, and 4th RBP4 quartiles vs. the 2nd quartile. However, a squared RBP4 term in regression modeling was non-significant (P = 0.10. Conclusions In these healthy, recently postmenopausal women, higher RBP4 levels were weakly associated with elevations in triglycerides and with CAC, but not with other risk factors or CIMT. These data using the gold standard of RBP4 methodology only weakly support the possibility that perturbations in RBP4 homeostasis may be an additional risk factor for subclinical coronary atherosclerosis. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT

  5. Sensation seeking related to varied definition of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dastol, O.U.; Drottz-Sjoberg, B.M.

    1998-01-01

    This pilot study is based on the assumption that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. It has been shown in previous risk perception studies that some people report their definition or normal use of the concept of risk as e.g. mainly probability, a combination of probability and consequences, mainly consequences, or due to the nature of the event (Drottz-Sjoeberg, 1991). Another field of research has developed measures for personality traits, i.e. facets of Sensation Seeking; Disinhibition, Thrill and Adventure Seeking, Experience Seeking, and Boredom Susceptibility (Zuckerman, 1994). The design of the present study involved three independent groups of first year psychology students (N=93). They were presented with one of three response formats regarding their normal use of the word risk, i.e. an open-ended format, separate ratings of four items suggesting a definition of risk on five-point scales, and one single five-point scale with the extremes labelled probability and consequences, and with their combination as the scale mid-point. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was 'danger', but among the responses were also 'chance', and 'outcome'. Another finding was that people who defined risk as 'outcome' and 'chance', using the open-ended format tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale than those who defined risk as 'danger'. In addition, subjects who defined risk as the 'combination' of probability and consequences, using other response formats, also tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale (SSS), especially as compared to those defining risk as the 'probability' of an event. (authors)

  6. Gender differences in the relations between work-related physical and psychosocial risk factors and musculoskeletal complaints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hooftman, W.E.; Poppel, M.N.M. van; Beek, A.J. van der; Bongers, P.M.; Mechelen, W. van

    2004-01-01

    Gender differences in the prevalence of musculoskeletal complaints might be explained by differences in the effect of exposure to work-related physical and psychosocial risk factors. A systematic review was conducted to examine gender differences in the relations between these risk factors and

  7. Risk of placental abruption in relation to migraines and headaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ananth Cande V

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Migraine, a common chronic-intermittent disorder of idiopathic origin characterized by severe debilitating headaches and autonomic nervous system dysfunction, and placental abruption, the premature separation of the placenta, share many common pathophysiological characteristics. Moreover, endothelial dysfunction, platelet activation, hypercoagulation, and inflammation are common to both disorders. We assessed risk of placental abruption in relation to maternal history of migraine before and during pregnancy in Peruvian women. Methods Cases were 375 women with pregnancies complicated by placental abruption, and controls were 368 women without an abruption. During in-person interviews conducted following delivery, women were asked if they had physician-diagnosed migraine, and they were asked questions that allowed headaches and migraine to be classified according to criteria established by the International Headache Society. Logistic regression procedures were used to calculate odds ratios (aOR and 95% confidence intervals (CI adjusted for confounders. Results Overall, a lifetime history of any headaches or migraine was associated with an increased odds of placental abruption (aOR = 1.60; 95% CI 1.16-2.20. A lifetime history of migraine was associated with a 2.14-fold increased odds of placental abruption (aOR = 2.14; 95% CI 1.22-3.75. The odds of placental abruption was 2.11 (95% CI 1.00-4.45 for migraineurs without aura; and 1.59 (95% 0.70-3.62 for migraineurs with aura. A lifetime history of tension-type headache was also increased with placental abruption (aOR = 1.61; 95% CI 1.01-2.57. Conclusions This study adds placental abruption to a growing list of pregnancy complications associated with maternal headache/migraine disorders. Nevertheless, prospective cohort studies are needed to more rigorously evaluate the extent to which migraines and/or its treatments are associated with the occurrence of placental abruption.

  8. Civil engineering airman at increased risk for injuries and injury-related musculoskeletal disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Timothy S; Wells, Timothy S

    2011-03-01

    With the advent of electronic records, the opportunity to conduct research on workplace-related injuries and musculoskeletal disorders has increased dramatically. The purpose of this study was to examine the United States Air Force Civil Engineering career field to determine if they are negatively impacted by their work environment. Specifically, the objective of this study was to determine if enlisted Civil Engineering Airmen (n = 25,385) were at increased risk for injury or injury-related musculoskeletal disorders compared to enlisted Information Management/Communications Airmen (n = 28,947). Using an historical prospective design, electronic data were assembled and analyzed using Cox's proportional hazards modeling. Models were stratified by gender and adjusted for race/ethnicity, marital status, birth year, and deployment status. Male Civil Engineers were observed to be at greater risk for both inpatient injury-related musculoskeletal disorders (HR = 1.86; 95% CI = 1.54-2.26) and injuries (HR = 1.77; 95% CI = 1.48-2.11), while female Civil Engineers were more than double the risk for both inpatient injury-related musculoskeletal disorders (HR = 2.18; 95% CI = 1.28-3.73) and injuries (HR = 2.22; 95% CI = 1.27-3.88) compared to Information Management/Communications Airmen. Although analyses do not allow exploration of specific causes, they highlight the utility of using electronic data to identify occupations for further evaluation. Based on these results, additional resources were allocated to survey Civil Engineers on their physical work demands and job requirements to identify key problem areas for further study and mitigation. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  9. School-related risk factors for drunkenness among adolescents: risk factors differ between socio-economic groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Anette; Holstein, Bjørn E; Due, Pernille

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: To examine, separately for boys and girls, whether socio-economic differences in drunkenness exist in adolescence, whether the level of exposure to school-related risk factors differ between socio-economic groups, and whether the relative contribution of school-related risk factors......) was measured by parental occupation. RESULTS: Among girls, exposures to school-related risk factors were more prevalent in lower socio-economic groups. Poor school satisfaction was associated with drunkenness among girls from high SEP, odds ratio (OR) = 2.98 (0.73-12.16). Among boys from high SEP autonomy...

  10. Multidimensional analyses to assess the relations between treatment choices by physicians and patients’ characteristics: the example of COPD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roche Nicolas

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In some situations, practice guidelines do not provide firm evidence-based guidance regarding COPD treatment choices, especially when large trials have failed to identify subgroups of particularly good or poor responders to available medications. Methods This observational cross-sectional study explored the yield of four types of multidimensional analyses to assess the associations between the clinical characteristics of COPD patients and pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments prescribed by lung specialists in a real-life context. Results Altogether, 2494 patients were recruited by 515 respiratory physicians. Multiple correspondence analysis and hierarchical clustering identified 6 clinical subtypes and 6 treatment subgroups. Strong bi-directional associations were found between clinical subtypes and treatment subgroups in multivariate logistic regression. However, although the overall frequency of prescriptions varied from one clinical subtype to the other for all types of pharmacological treatments, clinical subtypes were not associated with specific prescription profiles. When canonical analysis of redundancy was used, the proportion of variation in pharmacological treatments that was explained by clinical characteristics remained modest: 6.23%. This proportion was greater (14.29% for non-pharmacological components of care. Conclusion This study shows that, although pharmacological treatments of COPD are quantitatively very well related to patients’ clinical characteristics, there is no particular patient profile that could be qualitatively associated to prescriptions. This underlines uncertainties perceived by physicians for differentiating the respective effects of available pharmacological treatments. The methodology applied here is useful to identify areas of uncertainty requiring further research and/or guideline clarification.

  11. Relating system-to-CFD coupled code analyses to theoretical framework of a multi-scale method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadinu, F.; Kozlowski, T.; Dinh, T.N.

    2007-01-01

    Over past decades, analyses of transient processes and accidents in a nuclear power plant have been performed, to a significant extent and with a great success, by means of so called system codes, e.g. RELAP5, CATHARE, ATHLET codes. These computer codes, based on a multi-fluid model of two-phase flow, provide an effective, one-dimensional description of the coolant thermal-hydraulics in the reactor system. For some components in the system, wherever needed, the effect of multi-dimensional flow is accounted for through approximate models. The later are derived from scaled experiments conducted for selected accident scenarios. Increasingly, however, we have to deal with newer and ever more complex accident scenarios. In some such cases the system codes fail to serve as simulation vehicle, largely due to its deficient treatment of multi-dimensional flow (in e.g. downcomer, lower plenum). A possible way of improvement is to use the techniques of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). Based on solving Navier-Stokes equations, CFD codes have been developed and used, broadly, to perform analysis of multi-dimensional flow, dominantly in non-nuclear industry and for single-phase flow applications. It is clear that CFD simulations can not substitute system codes but just complement them. Given the intrinsic multi-scale nature of this problem, we propose to relate it to the more general field of research on multi-scale simulations. Even though multi-scale methods are developed on case-by-case basis, the need for a unified framework brought to the development of the heterogeneous multi-scale method (HMM)

  12. The perception of risks related to electricity generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Midden, C J; Daamen, D D; Verplanken, B

    1987-01-01

    Some of the key findings are discussed of psychological research on the perception of risks and attitudes with respect to the use of uranium and coal for electricity generation. It appears that attitudes are mostly not based on ideology but rather determined by a trade-off of expected risks and advantages. Lay estimates of probabilities are compared with expert judgements. In the last section attitudes of people living near existing or planned power plants are analyzed. Serious doubts are raised about the possibilities to give residents economic compensation for exposure to risks. 1 fig., 29 refs.

  13. Intake of butylated hydroxyanisole and butylated hydroxytoluene and stomach cancer risk : results from analyses in the Netherlands : cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botterweck, A.A.M.; Verhagen, H.; Goldbohm, R.A.; Kleinjans, J.; Brandt, P.A. van den

    2000-01-01

    Both carcinogenic and anticarcinogenic properties have been reported for the synthetic antioxidants butylated hydroxyanisole (BHA) and butylated hydroxytoluene (BHT). The association between dietary intake of BHA and BHT and stomach cancer risk was investigated in the Netherlands Cohort Study (NLCS)

  14. Analyses of cyanobacterial toxins (microcystins, cylindrospermopsins) in the reservoirs of the Czech Republic and evaluation of health risks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bláhová, Lucie; Babica, Pavel; Adamovský, Ondřej; Kohoutek, Jiří; Maršálek, Blahoslav

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 6, č. 4 (2008), s. 223-227 ISSN 1610-3653 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : microcystins * cylindrospermopsin * health risks Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 1.366, year: 2008

  15. Genome-wide association analyses identify 44 risk variants and refine the genetic architecture of major depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wray, Naomi R; Ripke, Stephan; Mattheisen, Manuel; Trzaskowski, Maciej; Byrne, Enda M; Abdellaoui, Abdel; Adams, Mark J; Agerbo, Esben; Air, Tracy M; Andlauer, Till M F; Bacanu, Silviu-Alin; Bækvad-Hansen, Marie; Beekman, Aartjan F T; Bigdeli, Tim B; Binder, Elisabeth B; Blackwood, Douglas R H; Bryois, Julien; Buttenschøn, Henriette N; Bybjerg-Grauholm, Jonas; Cai, Na; Castelao, Enrique; Christensen, Jane Hvarregaard; Clarke, Toni-Kim; Coleman, Jonathan I R; Colodro-Conde, Lucía; Couvy-Duchesne, Baptiste; Craddock, Nick; Crawford, Gregory E; Crowley, Cheynna A; Dashti, Hassan S; Davies, Gail; Deary, Ian J; Degenhardt, Franziska; Derks, Eske M; Direk, Nese; Dolan, Conor V; Dunn, Erin C; Eley, Thalia C; Eriksson, Nicholas; Escott-Price, Valentina; Kiadeh, Farnush Hassan Farhadi; Finucane, Hilary K; Forstner, Andreas J; Frank, Josef; Gaspar, Héléna A; Gill, Michael; Giusti-Rodríguez, Paola; Goes, Fernando S; Gordon, Scott D; Grove, Jakob; Hall, Lynsey S; Hannon, Eilis; Hansen, Christine Søholm; Hansen, Thomas F; Herms, Stefan; Hickie, Ian B; Hoffmann, Per; Homuth, Georg; Horn, Carsten; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Hougaard, David M; Hu, Ming; Hyde, Craig L; Ising, Marcus; Jansen, Rick; Jin, Fulai; Jorgenson, Eric; Knowles, James A; Kohane, Isaac S; Kraft, Julia; Kretzschmar, Warren W; Krogh, Jesper; Kutalik, Zoltán; Lane, Jacqueline M; Li, Yihan; Li, Yun; Lind, Penelope A; Liu, Xiaoxiao; Lu, Leina; MacIntyre, Donald J; MacKinnon, Dean F; Maier, Robert M; Maier, Wolfgang; Marchini, Jonathan; Mbarek, Hamdi; McGrath, Patrick; McGuffin, Peter; Medland, Sarah E; Mehta, Divya; Middeldorp, Christel M; Mihailov, Evelin; Milaneschi, Yuri; Milani, Lili; Mill, Jonathan; Mondimore, Francis M; Montgomery, Grant W; Mostafavi, Sara; Mullins, Niamh; Nauck, Matthias; Ng, Bernard; Nivard, Michel G; Nyholt, Dale R; O'Reilly, Paul F; Oskarsson, Hogni; Owen, Michael J; Painter, Jodie N; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Pedersen, Marianne Giørtz; Peterson, Roseann E; Pettersson, Erik; Peyrot, Wouter J; Pistis, Giorgio; Posthuma, Danielle; Purcell, Shaun M; Quiroz, Jorge A; Qvist, Per; Rice, John P; Riley, Brien P; Rivera, Margarita; Saeed Mirza, Saira; Saxena, Richa; Schoevers, Robert; Schulte, Eva C; Shen, Ling; Shi, Jianxin; Shyn, Stanley I; Sigurdsson, Engilbert; Sinnamon, Grant B C; Smit, Johannes H; Smith, Daniel J; Stefansson, Hreinn; Steinberg, Stacy; Stockmeier, Craig A; Streit, Fabian; Strohmaier, Jana; Tansey, Katherine E; Teismann, Henning; Teumer, Alexander; Thompson, Wesley; Thomson, Pippa A; Thorgeirsson, Thorgeir E; Tian, Chao; Traylor, Matthew; Treutlein, Jens; Trubetskoy, Vassily; Uitterlinden, André G; Umbricht, Daniel; Van der Auwera, Sandra; van Hemert, Albert M; Viktorin, Alexander; Visscher, Peter M; Wang, Yunpeng; Webb, Bradley T; Weinsheimer, Shantel Marie; Wellmann, Jürgen; Willemsen, Gonneke; Witt, Stephanie H; Wu, Yang; Xi, Hualin S; Yang, Jian; Zhang, Futao; Arolt, Volker; Baune, Bernhard T; Berger, Klaus; Boomsma, Dorret I; Cichon, Sven; Dannlowski, Udo; de Geus, E C J; DePaulo, J Raymond; Domenici, Enrico; Domschke, Katharina; Esko, Tõnu; Grabe, Hans J; Hamilton, Steven P; Hayward, Caroline; Heath, Andrew C; Hinds, David A; Kendler, Kenneth S; Kloiber, Stefan; Lewis, Glyn; Li, Qingqin S; Lucae, Susanne; Madden, Pamela F A; Magnusson, Patrik K; Martin, Nicholas G; McIntosh, Andrew M; Metspalu, Andres; Mors, Ole; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Nordentoft, Merete; Nöthen, Markus M; O'Donovan, Michael C; Paciga, Sara A; Pedersen, Nancy L; Penninx, Brenda W J H; Perlis, Roy H; Porteous, David J; Potash, James B; Preisig, Martin; Rietschel, Marcella; Schaefer, Catherine; Schulze, Thomas G; Smoller, Jordan W; Stefansson, Kari; Tiemeier, Henning; Uher, Rudolf; Völzke, Henry; Weissman, Myrna M; Werge, Thomas; Winslow, Ashley R; Lewis, Cathryn M; Levinson, Douglas F; Breen, Gerome; Børglum, Anders D; Sullivan, Patrick F

    2018-05-01

    Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a common illness accompanied by considerable morbidity, mortality, costs, and heightened risk of suicide. We conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis based in 135,458 cases and 344,901 controls and identified 44 independent and significant loci. The genetic findings were associated with clinical features of major depression and implicated brain regions exhibiting anatomical differences in cases. Targets of antidepressant medications and genes involved in gene splicing were enriched for smaller association signal. We found important relationships of genetic risk for major depression with educational attainment, body mass, and schizophrenia: lower educational attainment and higher body mass were putatively causal, whereas major depression and schizophrenia reflected a partly shared biological etiology. All humans carry lesser or greater numbers of genetic risk factors for major depression. These findings help refine the basis of major depression and imply that a continuous measure of risk underlies the clinical phenotype.

  16. Guidelines for estimating blowout rates and duration for environmental risk analysis purposes; Retningslinjer for beregning av utblaasningsrater og -varighet til bruk ved analyse av miljoerisiko

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nilsen, Thomas

    2007-01-15

    Risk assessment in relation to possible blowouts of oil and condensate is the main topic in this analysis. The estimated risk is evaluated against criteria for acceptable risk and is part of the foundation for dimensioning in oil spill preparedness. The report aims to contribute to the standardisation of the terminology, methodology and documentation for estimations of blowout rates, and thus to simplify communication of the analysis results and strengthen the decision makers' trust in these (ml)

  17. Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food related hazards, based on risks for human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, E. D.; Raley, M.

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science......, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered - based on their characteristics - into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years, multi......-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking...

  18. Process Review for Development of Quantitative Risk Analyses for Transboundary Animal Disease to Pathogen-Free Territories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Miller

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of transboundary animal diseases (TADs have the potential to cause significant detriment to animal, human, and environmental health; severe economic implications; and national security. Challenges concerning data sharing, model development, decision support, and disease emergence science have recently been promoted. These challenges and recommendations have been recognized and advocated in the disciplines intersecting with outbreak prediction and forecast modeling regarding infectious diseases. To advance the effective application of computation and risk communication, analytical products ought to follow a collaboratively agreed common plan for implementation. Research articles should seek to inform and assist prioritization of national and international strategies in developing established criteria to identify and follow best practice standards to assess risk model attributes and performance. A well-defined framework to help eliminate gaps in policy, process, and planning knowledge areas would help alleviate the intense need for the formation of a comprehensive strategy for countering TAD outbreak risks. A quantitative assessment that accurately captures the risk of introduction of a TAD through various pathways can be a powerful tool in guiding where government, academic, and industry resources ought to be allocated, whether implementation of additional risk management solutions is merited, and where research efforts should be directed to minimize risk. This review outlines a part of a process for the development of quantitative risk analysis to collect, analyze, and communicate this knowledge. A more comprehensive and unabridged manual was also developed. The framework used in supporting the application of aligning computational tools for readiness continues our approach to apply a preparedness mindset to challenges concerning threats to global biosecurity, secure food systems, and risk-mitigated agricultural economies.

  19. How Genes Modulate Patterns of Aging-Related Changes on the Way to 100: Biodemographic Models and Methods in Genetic Analyses of Longitudinal Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yashin, Anatoliy I.; Arbeev, Konstantin G.; Wu, Deqing; Arbeeva, Liubov; Kulminski, Alexander; Kulminskaya, Irina; Akushevich, Igor; Ukraintseva, Svetlana V.

    2016-01-01

    and on dynamic interaction between aging and longevity. We investigated properties of genes related to selected variants and their roles in signaling and metabolic pathways. Results We showed that the use of different QC procedures results in different sets of genetic variants associated with life span. We selected 24 genetic variants negatively associated with life span. We showed that the joint analyses of genetic data at the time of bio-specimen collection and follow up data substantially improved significance of associations of selected 24 SNPs with life span. We also showed that aging related changes in physiological variables and in hidden biomarkers of aging differ for the groups of carriers and non-carriers of selected variants. Conclusions . The results of these analyses demonstrated benefits of using biodemographic models and methods in genetic association studies of these traits. Our findings showed that the absence of a large number of genetic variants with deleterious effects may make substantial contribution to exceptional longevity. These effects are dynamically mediated by a number of physiological variables and hidden biomarkers of aging. The results of these research demonstrated benefits of using integrative statistical models of mortality risks in genetic studies of human aging and longevity. PMID:27773987

  20. Long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent work-related impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott-Marshall, Heather K; Tompa, Emile; Wang, Ying; Liao, Qing

    2014-07-11

    Recent estimates indicate that at least one in five activity-limiting injuries occurs at work. Of individuals who suffer these injuries approximately 10% experience some degree of functional impairment. We were interested in investigating long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent impairment from work injury and to examine whether work disability is a significant explanatory factor. We used a retrospective matched cohort methodology to examine differences in mortality rates between individuals with permanent impairment from a work injury and a group of non-injured controls over a 19-year period. We used a sample of impaired workers to investigate the impact of work disability on mortality risk using percentage of earnings recovery after injury as the key proxy measure. All analyses were stratified by sex. Permanent impairment from a work injury was predictive of premature mortality in both male and female claimants, though the risk was slightly higher among women. Work disability was a key explanatory factor in the rate of death among impaired workers, the effects being more pronounced in men. We also found that higher impairment level was associated with mortality in men but not in women. The study demonstrates the impact of permanent work-related impairment on longevity and identifies work disability as an important determinant of mortality risk. Given the disconnect between impairment ratings derived from standard diagnostic tools and labour-market activity after accident, more research is needed on the specific factors that contribute to work disability, particularly those related to psycho-social health and well-being.

  1. Risk Factors related to hemorrhage necessitating renal artery embolization after percutaneous nephrostomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byon, Jung Hee; Han, Young Min; Jin, Gong Yong; Song, Ji Soo

    2015-01-01

    To investigate risk factors related to severe bleeding necessitating renal artery embolization (RAE) after percutaneous nephrostomy (PCN). 36 patients who underwent RAE from January 2005 to June 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Among them, 10 patients underwent embolization because of severe bleeding after PCN (bleeding group). From 1762 patients who underwent PCN in the same period, we selected 21 patients who underwent PCN without bleeding after the procedure (non-bleeding group). We investigated possible related risk factors, such as the presence of underlying diseases, activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), prothrombin time (PT), platelet count, puncture site, procedure time, size of the kidney, distance from skin to renal cortex, maximum caliber of the indwelling catheter, parenchymal thickness, and grade of hydronephrosis. We used Fisher's exact test and independent t test for data analyses. We classified hydronephrosis as either 'mild hydronephrosis,' or 'moderate or severe hydronephrosis.' The frequency of mild hydronephrosis was 80.0% (8/10) in the bleeding group and 33.3% (7/21) in the non-bleeding group (p = 0.023). There were no significant differences between the two groups in the incidence of underlying diseases. Similarly, other risk factors (PT, aPTT, platelet count, procedure time, distance from skin to renal cortex, maximum caliber of the indwelling catheter, kidney size, and parenhcymal thickness) also did not differ significantly between the two groups. Mild hydronephrosis is a risk factor for severe bleeding necessitating RAE after PCN. Therefore, when performing PCN, careful attention should be paid to patients with mild hydronephrosis

  2. Risk Factors related to hemorrhage necessitating renal artery embolization after percutaneous nephrostomy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byon, Jung Hee; Han, Young Min; Jin, Gong Yong; Song, Ji Soo [Chonbuk National University Hospital and Medical School, Jeonju (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    To investigate risk factors related to severe bleeding necessitating renal artery embolization (RAE) after percutaneous nephrostomy (PCN). 36 patients who underwent RAE from January 2005 to June 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Among them, 10 patients underwent embolization because of severe bleeding after PCN (bleeding group). From 1762 patients who underwent PCN in the same period, we selected 21 patients who underwent PCN without bleeding after the procedure (non-bleeding group). We investigated possible related risk factors, such as the presence of underlying diseases, activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), prothrombin time (PT), platelet count, puncture site, procedure time, size of the kidney, distance from skin to renal cortex, maximum caliber of the indwelling catheter, parenchymal thickness, and grade of hydronephrosis. We used Fisher's exact test and independent t test for data analyses. We classified hydronephrosis as either 'mild hydronephrosis,' or 'moderate or severe hydronephrosis.' The frequency of mild hydronephrosis was 80.0% (8/10) in the bleeding group and 33.3% (7/21) in the non-bleeding group (p = 0.023). There were no significant differences between the two groups in the incidence of underlying diseases. Similarly, other risk factors (PT, aPTT, platelet count, procedure time, distance from skin to renal cortex, maximum caliber of the indwelling catheter, kidney size, and parenhcymal thickness) also did not differ significantly between the two groups. Mild hydronephrosis is a risk factor for severe bleeding necessitating RAE after PCN. Therefore, when performing PCN, careful attention should be paid to patients with mild hydronephrosis.

  3. The risk of cataract in relation to metal arc welding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slagor, Rebekka Michaelsen; Dornonville de la Cour, Morten; Bonde, Jens Peter

    2016-01-01

    .95–1.21] and the adjusted HR was 1.08 (95% CI 0.95–1.22). Age and diabetes were as expected strong risk factors. Conclusion: We found no increased risk of developing cataract among Danish metal welders who worked with arc welding from 1950–1985. This may be attributed to the effectiveness of personal safety equipment....... increases the risk of cataract. Method: We compared the risk of being diagnosed with cataract from 1987–2012 in a historic cohort of 4288 male metal arc welders against a reference group comprised of Danish skilled and unskilled male workers with similar age distribution. For the welders’ cohort...... adjusted for baseline data regarding age, diabetes, and social group. Results: There were 266 welders and 29 007 referents with a diagnosis and/or operation for cataract. The unadjusted HR for cataract comparing ever-welders with referents was 1.07 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0...

  4. Relation between Childhood Obesity and Adult Cardiovascular Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren M. Allcock

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The incidence of overweight and obesity is rising at an alarming pace in the pediatric population, just as in the adult population. The adult comorbidities associated with this risk factor are well-recognized and are being further elucidated continually. Additionally, we are gradually developing a better understanding of the risks of overweight and obesity among children while they are still young. However, there is now a growing body of evidence showing that childhood obesity not only leads all too frequently to adult obesity, but is in itself a risk factor for cardiometabolic syndrome and resultant cardiovascular risk in adulthood. If current trends continue, the problem of pediatric overweight and obesity will become of unmanageable proportions once these individuals reach adulthood. Future research efforts toward understanding this complex problem will need to focus on those overweight and obese children who later went on to change their metabolic course and become normal-weight adults.

  5. Family Chaos and Child Functioning in Relation to Sleep Problems Among Children at Risk for Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boles, Richard E; Halbower, Ann C; Daniels, Stephen; Gunnarsdottir, Thrudur; Whitesell, Nancy; Johnson, Susan L

    2017-01-01

    This study evaluated the influence of child and family functioning on child sleep behaviors in low-income minority families who are at risk for obesity. A cross-sectional study was utilized to measure child and family functioning from 2013 to 2014. Participants were recruited from Head Start classrooms while data were collected during home visits. A convenience sample of 72 low-income Hispanic (65%) and African American (32%) families of preschool-aged children were recruited for this study. We assessed the association of child and family functioning with child sleep behaviors using a multivariate multiple linear regression model. Bootstrap mediation analyses examined the effects of family chaos between child functioning and child sleep problems. Poorer child emotional and behavioral functioning related to total sleep behavior problems. Chaos associated with bedtime resistance significantly mediated the relationship between Behavioral and Emotional Screening System (BESS) and Bedtime Resistance. Families at high risk for obesity showed children with poorer emotional and behavioral functioning were at higher risk for problematic sleep behaviors, although we found no link between obesity and child sleep. Family chaos appears to play a significant role in understanding part of these relationships. Future longitudinal studies are necessary to establish causal relationships between child and family functioning and sleep problems to further guide obesity interventions aimed at improving child sleep routines and increasing sleep duration.

  6. Birth order, gestational age, and risk of delivery related perinatal death in twins: retrospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Gordon C S; Pell, Jill P; Dobbie, Richard

    2002-01-01

    Objective To determine whether twins born second are at increased risk of perinatal death because of complications during labour and delivery. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Scotland, 1992 and 1997. Participants All twin births at or after 24 weeks' gestation, excluding twin pairs in which either twin died before labour or delivery or died during or after labour and delivery because of congenital abnormality, non-immune hydrops, or twin to twin transfusion syndrome. Main outcome measure Delivery related perinatal deaths (deaths during labour or the neonatal period). Results Overall, delivery related perinatal deaths were recorded for 23 first twins only and 23 second twins only of 1438 twin pairs born before 36 weeks (preterm) by means other than planned caesarean section (P>0.99). No deaths of first twins and nine deaths of second twins (P=0.004) were recorded among the 2436 twin pairs born at or after 36 weeks (term). Discordance between first and second twins differed significantly in preterm and term births (P=0.007). Seven of nine deaths of second twins at term were due to anoxia during the birth (2.9 (95% confidence interval 1.2 to 5.9) per 1000); five of these deaths were associated with mechanical problems with the second delivery following vaginal delivery of the first twin. No deaths were recorded among 454 second twins delivered at term by planned caesarean section. Conclusions Second twins born at term are at higher risk than first twins of death due to complications of delivery. Previous studies may not have shown an increased risk because of inadequate categorisation of deaths, lack of statistical power, inappropriate analyses, and pooling of data about preterm births and term births. What is already known on this topicIt is difficult to assess the wellbeing of second twins during labourDeliveries of second twins are at increased risk of mechanical problems, such as cord prolapse and malpresentation, after vaginal delivery of first twins

  7. Extent of Cropland and Related Soil Erosion Risk in Rwanda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fidele Karamage

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Land conversion to cropland is one of the major causes of severe soil erosion in Africa. This study assesses the current cropland extent and the related soil erosion risk in Rwanda, a country that experienced the most rapid population growth and cropland expansion in Africa over the last decade. The land cover land use (LCLU map of Rwanda in 2015 was developed using Landsat-8 imagery. Based on the obtained LCLU map and the spatial datasets of precipitation, soil properties and elevation, the soil erosion rate of Rwanda was assessed at 30-m spatial resolution, using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE model. According to the results, the mean soil erosion rate was 250 t·ha−1·a−1 over the entire country, with a total soil loss rate of approximately 595 million tons per year. The mean soil erosion rate over cropland, which occupied 56% of the national land area, was estimated at 421 t·ha−1·a−1 and was responsible for about 95% of the national soil loss. About 24% of the croplands in Rwanda had a soil erosion rate larger than 300 t·ha−1·a−1, indicating their unsuitability for cultivation. With a mean soil erosion rate of 1642 t·ha−1·a−1, these unsuitable croplands were responsible for 90% of the national soil loss. Most of the unsuitable croplands are distributed in the Congo Nile Ridge, Volcanic Range mountain areas in the west and the Buberuka highlands in the north, regions characterized by steep slopes (>30% and strong rainfall. Soil conservation practices, such as the terracing cultivation method, are paramount to preserve the soil. According to our assessment, terracing alone could reduce the mean cropland soil erosion rate and the national soil loss by 79% and 75%, respectively. After terracing, only a small proportion of 7.6% of the current croplands would still be exposed to extreme soil erosion with a rate >300 t·ha−1·a−1. These irremediable cropland areas should be returned to mountain forest to

  8. The Regulation of Major Risks in Relation to Large Nuclear Installations in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phan Van, L.

    1991-01-01

    Recently, major risk prevention has generated legislative and regulatory texts in French law, particularly regarding nuclear installations. This article reviews the context and analyses the scope of the new regulations. They require the nuclear operator to take preventive measures, namely more stringent obligations from the safety viewpoint to inform the public. These include risk assessments and preparing emergency plans in case if accidents. (NEA)

  9. Interventions to prevent and manage psychosocial risks and work-related stress

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein Hesselink, J.; Jain, A.

    2014-01-01

    Prevention is the cornerstone of the European approach to managing occupational safety and health. Prevention means anticipating and analysing the various aspects of work to identify short and long term risks, and then taking action to eliminate or mitigate those risks; that is identifying and

  10. Associations of Fitness, Physical Activity, Strength, and Genetic Risk With Cardiovascular Disease: Longitudinal Analyses in the UK Biobank Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tikkanen, Emmi; Gustafsson, Stefan; Ingelsson, Erik

    2018-04-09

    Background -Observational studies have shown inverse associations among fitness, physical activity, and cardiovascular disease. However, little is known about these associations in individuals with elevated genetic susceptibility for these diseases. Methods -We estimated associations of grip strength, objective and subjective physical activity, and cardiorespiratory fitness with cardiovascular events and all-cause death in a large cohort of 502635 individuals from the UK Biobank (median follow-up, 6.1 years; interquartile range, 5.4-6.8 years). Then we further examined these associations in individuals with different genetic burden by stratifying individuals based on their genetic risk scores for coronary heart disease and atrial fibrillation. We compared disease risk among individuals in different tertiles of fitness, physical activity, and genetic risk using lowest tertiles as reference. Results -Grip strength, physical activity, and cardiorespiratory fitness showed inverse associations with incident cardiovascular events (coronary heart disease: hazard ratio [HR], 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77- 0.81; HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.93-0.97; and HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.63-0.74, per SD change, respectively; atrial fibrillation: HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.73- 0.76; HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.91-0.95; and HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.56-0.65, per SD change, respectively). Higher grip strength and cardiorespiratory fitness were associated with lower risk of incident coronary heart disease and atrial fibrillation in each genetic risk score group ( P trend fitness were associated with 49% lower risk for coronary heart disease (HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.38-0.69) and 60% lower risk for atrial fibrillation (HR, 0.40; 95%, CI 0.30-0.55) among individuals at high genetic risk for these diseases. Conclusions - Fitness and physical activity demonstrated inverse associations with incident cardiovascular disease in the general population, as well as in individuals with elevated genetic risk for these diseases.

  11. Structural and Treatment Analyses of Safe and At-Risk Behaviors and Postures Performed by Pharmacy Employees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fante, Rhiannon; Gravina, Nicole; Betz, Alison; Austin, John

    2010-01-01

    This study employed structural and treatment analyses to determine factors that contributed to wrist posture safety in a small pharmacy. The pharmacy was located on a university campus and participants were three female pharmacy technicians. These particular employees had experienced various repetitive-motion injuries that resulted in a total of…

  12. 78 FR 63479 - Meta-Analyses of Randomized Controlled Clinical Trials (RCTs) for the Evaluation of Risk To...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-24

    ... pharmaceutical industry and health care organizations, and others from the general public, about the use of meta-analyses of randomized trials as a tool for safety assessment in the regulation of pharmaceutical products... PDUFA Goals Letter, titled ``Enhancing Regulatory Science and Expediting Drug Development,'' includes an...

  13. Enhancing assessment of interpersonal violence (IPV) pregnancy-related homicide risk within nursing curricula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clements, Paul Thomas; Holt, Karyn E; Hasson, Catherine M; Fay-Hillier, Theresa

    2011-12-01

    Pregnancy and motherhood traditionally represent evolution of the next generation; yet, contemporary research and analyses confirm that this time can also be manifested in fear by the expectant mother within an environment of battering, cruelty, physical and emotional abuse, and sexual assault. Often to the surprise of many healthcare providers, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have consistently reported that Interpersonal Violence (IPV) related homicide is a leading cause of traumatic death among new and expectant mothers. In spite of these staggering statistical and anecdotal findings, universal screening for violence during pregnancy continues to be minimal. Forensic nurses might be prompted to respond to the consequences of violence and its resultant negative effects on expectant mothers by strategically incorporating systematic and consistent assessment into foundational nursing curricula regarding IPV as a leading risk factor for injury or death. © 2011 International Association of Forensic Nurses.

  14. Genetic variations in vitamin D-related pathways and breast cancer risk in African American women in the AMBER consortium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Song; Haddad, Stephen A.; Hu, Qiang; Liu, Song; Lunetta, Kathryn L.; Ruiz-Narvaez, Edward A.; Hong, Chi-Chen; Zhu, Qianqian; Sucheston-Campbell, Lara; Cheng, Ting-Yuan David; Bensen, Jeannette T.; Johnson, Candace S.; Trump, Donald L.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Olshan, Andrew F.; Palmer, Julie R.; Ambrosone, Christine B.

    2016-01-01

    Studies of genetic variations in vitamin D-related pathways and breast cancer risk have been conducted mostly in populations of European ancestry, and only sparsely in African Americans (AA), who are known for a high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency. We analyzed 24,445 germline variants in 63 genes from vitamin D-related pathways in the African American Breast Cancer Epidemiology and Risk (AMBER) consortium, including 3,663 breast cancer cases and 4,687 controls. Odds ratios (OR) were derived from logistic regression models for overall breast cancer, by estrogen receptor (ER) status (1,983 ER positive and 1,098 ER negative), and for case-only analyses of ER status. None of the three vitamin D-related pathways were associated with breast cancer risk overall or by ER status. Gene-level analyses identified associations with risk for several genes at a nominal p ≤ 0.05, particularly for ER− breast cancer, including rs4647707 in DDB2. In case-only analyses, vitamin D metabolism and signaling pathways were associated with ER− cancer (pathway-level p = 0.02), driven by a single gene CASR (gene-level p = 0.001). The top SNP in CASR was rs112594756 (p = 7 × 10−5, gene-wide corrected p = 0.01), followed by a second signal from a nearby SNP rs6799828 (p = 1 × 10−4, corrected p = 0.03). In summary, several variants in vitamin D pathways were associated with breast cancer risk in AA women. In addition, CASR may be related to tumor ER status, supporting a role of vitamin D or calcium in modifying breast cancer phenotypes. PMID:26650177

  15. Consumption of Sugars, Sugary Foods and Sugary Beverages in Relation to Adiposity-Related Cancer Risk in the Framingham Offspring Cohort (1991-2013).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarem, Nour; Bandera, Elisa V; Lin, Yong; Jacques, Paul; Hayes, Richard B; Parekh, Niyati

    2018-04-19

    Higher sugar consumption may increase cancer risk by promoting insulin-glucose dysregulation, oxidative stress, hormonal imbalances, and excess adiposity. This prospective study investigates the association between dietary sugars(fructose and sucrose) and sugary foods and beverages in relation to combined and site-specific (breast, prostate, colorectal) adiposity-associated cancers. The analytic sample consisted of 3,184 adults, aged 26-84y, from the Framingham Offspring cohort. Diet data was first collected between 1991-1995 using a food frequency questionnaire. Intakes of fructose, sucrose, sugary foods and sugary beverages (fruit juice and sugar-sweetened beverages) were derived. Participants were followed up until 2013 to ascertain cancer incidence; 565 doctor-diagnosed adiposity-related cancers, including 124 breast, 157 prostate and 68 colorectal cancers occurred. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate associations. Tests for interaction with BMI and waist circumference were conducted. No associations were observed between fructose, sucrose, sugary food consumption and combined incidence of adiposity-related cancers or the examined site-specific cancers. While total consumption of sugary beverages was not associated with site-specific cancer risk, higher intakes of fruit juice were associated with 58% increased prostate cancer risk(HR:1.58;95%CI:1.04-2.41) in multivariable-adjusted models. In exploratory stratified analyses, higher sugary beverage intakes increased overall adiposity-related cancer risk by 59% in participants with excessive central adiposity(HR:1.59;95%CI:1.01-2.50)(p-trend=0.057). In this cohort of American adults, higher sugary beverage consumption was associated with increased cancer risk among participants with central adiposity. These analyses suggest that avoiding sugary beverages represents a simple dietary modification that may be used as an effective cancer control strategy. Copyright ©2018

  16. HIV-Related Stigma, Shame, and Avoidant Coping: Risk Factors for Internalizing Symptoms Among Youth Living with HIV?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, David S; Hersh, Jill; Herres, Joanna; Foster, Jill

    2016-08-01

    Youth living with HIV (YLH) are at elevated risk of internalizing symptoms, although there is substantial individual variability in adjustment. We examined perceived HIV-related stigma, shame-proneness, and avoidant coping as risk factors of internalizing symptoms among YLH. Participants (N = 88; ages 12-24) completed self-report measures of these potential risk factors and three domains of internalizing symptoms (depressive, anxiety, and PTSD) during a regularly scheduled HIV clinic visit. Hierarchical regressions were conducted for each internalizing symptoms domain, examining the effects of age, gender, and maternal education (step 1), HIV-related stigma (step 2), shame- and guilt-proneness (step 3), and avoidant coping (step 4). HIV-related stigma, shame-proneness, and avoidant coping were each correlated with greater depressive, anxiety, and PTSD symptoms. Specificity was observed in that shame-proneness, but not guilt-proneness, was associated with greater internalizing symptoms. In multivariable analyses, HIV-related stigma and shame-proneness were each related to greater depressive and PTSD symptoms. Controlling for the effects of HIV-related stigma and shame-proneness, avoidant coping was associated with PTSD symptoms. The current findings highlight the potential importance of HIV-related stigma, shame, and avoidant coping on the adjustment of YLH, as interventions addressing these risk factors could lead to decreased internalizing symptoms among YLH.

  17. The implications of the relative risk for road mortality on road safety programmes in Qatar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consunji, Rafael J; Peralta, Ruben R; Al-Thani, Hassan; Latifi, Rifat

    2015-04-01

    The epidemiology of road deaths and in particular the relative risk for road mortality (RRRM) in Qatar has not been fully defined. This study will analyse and compare the proportionate mortality and age-specific death rates from road traffic injuries (RTIs) and make recommendations for targeted injury prevention programmes for road safety in Qatar. Data from the Qatar Statistics Authority (QSA), for the year 2010, was collected and analysed. All deaths classified as 'ICD-10 (V89) Motor- or Nonmotor-Vehicle, Accident Type of Vehicle Unspecified' were included. There were 247 RTI related deaths in Qatar in 2010. An overall death rate was computed at 14.4 deaths per 100 000 population. The RRRM varied over 10 times among different populations with Qatari males (QM) having an increased RRRM from 10 years of age, those aged 20-29 years had the highest RRRM of 10.2. The lowest RRRM was for Qatari females who did not have a single reported road fatality in 2010. Populations with a significantly elevated RRRM (ie, RRRM>1.0) were non-Qatari men older than 50 years and Qatari males from the age of 10 onward. Proven and definite programmes must be implemented to reduce these unnecessary deaths among the populations at the highest risk. Multidisciplinary approaches must be implemented and their efficacy evaluated. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  18. A prospective study of gait related risk factors for exercise-related lower leg pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, T M; De Clercq, D; Delbaere, K; Vanderstraeten, G; De Cock, A; Witvrouw, E

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine prospectively gait related risk factors for exercise-related lower leg pain (ERLLP) in 400 physical education students. Static lower leg alignment was determined, and 3D gait kinematics combined with plantar pressure profiles were collected. After this evaluation, all sports injuries were registered by the same sports physician during the duration of the study. Forty six subjects developed ERLLP and 29 of them developed bilateral symptoms thus giving 75 symptomatic lower legs. Bilateral lower legs of 167 subjects who developed no injuries in the lower extremities served as controls. Cox regression analysis revealed that subjects who developed ERLLP had an altered running pattern before the injury compared to the controls and included (1) a significantly more central heel-strike, (2) a significantly increased pronation, accompanied with more pressure underneath the medial side of the foot, and (3) a significantly more lateral roll-off. These findings suggest that altered biomechanics play a role in the genesis of ERLLP and thus should be considered in prevention and rehabilitation.

  19. Maternal depression and intimate partner violence exposure: Longitudinal analyses of the development of aggressive behavior in an at-risk sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Megan R; Yoon, Susan; Berg, Kristen A

    2017-07-01

    A substantial body of literature has documented the negative effects of intimate partner violence (IPV) on a wide range of children's developmental outcomes. However, whether a child's exposure to IPV leads to increased adjustment difficulties is likely to depend on a variety of factors, including the caregiver's mental health and the developmental time period when IPV exposure occurs. The present study seeks to improve our understanding of the long-term effects of IPV exposure and maternal depression on the development of children's overt aggressive behavior. Longitudinal analyses (i.e., latent growth curve modeling) examining three time points (toddler: age 2-3 years, preschool/kindergarten: age 4-5 years, and elementary school: age 6-8 years) were conducted using 1,399 at-risk children drawn from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being (NSCAW-I). IPV exposure during age 2-3 years was significantly related to concurrent aggressive behavior and aggressive behavior during age 4-5 years. At all three time points, IPV was significantly associated with maternal depression, which in turn, was significantly related to higher levels of aggressive behavior. There was also a significant indirect lagged effect of IPV exposure at age 2-3 years through maternal depression on aggressive behavior at age 4-5 years. Results indicated that maternal depression was a strong predictor of increased reports of overt aggressive behavior, suggesting that interventions to buffer the effects of IPV exposure should focus on relieving maternal depression and fostering productive social behavior in children. Aggr. Behav. 43:375-385, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Assessment of credit risk based on fuzzy relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsabadze, Teimuraz

    2017-06-01

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach for an assessment of the credit risk to corporate borrowers. There are different models for borrowers' risk assessment. These models are divided into two groups: statistical and theoretical. When assessing the credit risk for corporate borrowers, statistical model is unacceptable due to the lack of sufficiently large history of defaults. At the same time, we cannot use some theoretical models due to the lack of stock exchange. In those cases, when studying a particular borrower given that statistical base does not exist, the decision-making process is always of expert nature. The paper describes a new approach that may be used in group decision-making. An example of the application of the proposed approach is given.

  1. The NOD-like receptor signalling pathway in Helicobacter pylori infection and related gastric cancer: a case-control study and gene expression analyses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Castaño-Rodríguez

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Currently, it is well established that cancer arises in chronically inflamed tissue. A number of NOD-like receptors (NLRs form inflammasomes, intracellular multiprotein complexes critical for generating mature pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-1β and IL-18. As chronic inflammation of the gastric mucosa is a consequence of Helicobacter pylori infection, we investigated the role of genetic polymorphisms and expression of genes involved in the NLR signalling pathway in H. pylori infection and related gastric cancer (GC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifty-one genetic polymorphisms were genotyped in 310 ethnic Chinese (87 non-cardia GC cases and 223 controls with functional dyspepsia. In addition, gene expression of 84 molecules involved in the NLR signalling pathway was assessed in THP-1 cells challenged with two H. pylori strains, GC026 (GC and 26695 (gastritis. RESULTS: CARD8-rs11672725, NLRP3-rs10754558, NLRP3-rs4612666, NLRP12-rs199475867 and NLRX1-rs10790286 showed significant associations with GC. On multivariate analysis, CARD8-rs11672725 remained a risk factor (OR: 4.80, 95% CI: 1.39-16.58. Further, NLRP12-rs2866112 increased the risk of H. pylori infection (OR: 2.13, 95% CI: 1.22-3.71. Statistical analyses assessing the joint effect of H. pylori infection and the selected polymorphisms revealed strong associations with GC (CARD8, NLRP3, CASP1 and NLRP12 polymorphisms. In gene expression analyses, five genes encoding NLRs were significantly regulated in H. pylori-challenged cells (NLRC4, NLRC5, NLRP9, NLRP12 and NLRX1. Interestingly, persistent up-regulation of NFKB1 with simultaneous down-regulation of NLRP12 and NLRX1 was observed in H. pylori GC026-challenged cells. Further, NF-κB target genes encoding pro-inflammatory cytokines, chemokines and molecules involved in carcinogenesis were markedly up-regulated in H. pylori GC026-challenged cells. CONCLUSIONS: Novel associations between polymorphisms in the NLR signalling pathway (CARD8

  2. Risks of multiple sclerosis in relatives of patients in Flanders, Belgium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carton, H; Vlietinck, R; Debruyne, J; DeKeyser, J; DHooghe, MB; Loos, R; Medaer, R; Truyen, L; Yee, IML; Sadovnick, AD

    Objectives - To calculate age adjusted risks for multiple sclerosis in relatives of Flemish patients with multiple sclerosis. Methods - Lifetime risks were calculated using the maximum likelihood approach. Results - Vital information was obtained on 674 probands with multiple sclerosis in Flanders

  3. Pushing and pulling in relation to musculoskeletal disorders : a review of risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoozemans, M J; Van Der Beek, Allard J.; Frings-Dresen, M. H. W.; Dijk, F.J.H.; van der Woude, L H

    The objective was to review the literature on risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders related to pushing and pulling. The risk factors have been described and evaluated from four perspectives: epidemiology, psychophysics, physiology, and biomechanics. Epidemiological studies have shown, based on

  4. Pushing and pulling in relation to musculoskeletal disorders: a review of risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoozemans, Marco; van der Beek, A.J.; Frings-Dresen, M.H.W.; Dijk, F.J.H.

    1998-01-01

    The objective was to review the literature on risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders related to pushing and pulling. The risk factors have been described and evaluated from four perspectives: epidemiology, psychophysics, physiology, and biomechanics. Epidemiological studies have shown, based on

  5. Increased risk of stroke in hypertensive women using hormone therapy: analyses based on the Danish Nurse Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Løkkegaard, Ellen; Jovanovic, Zorana; Heitmann, Berit L

    2003-01-01

    by presence of risk factors for stroke. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: In 1993, the Danish Nurse Study was established, and questionnaires on lifestyle and HT use were sent to all Danish nurses older than 44 years, of whom 19,898 (85.8%) replied. PARTICIPANTS: Postmenopausal women (n = 13...

  6. Assessing residential buildings value in Spain for risk analyses. Application to the landslide hazard in the Autonomous Community of Valencia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantarino, I.; Torrijo, F. J.; Palencia, S.; Gielen, E.

    2014-05-01

    This paper proposes a method of valuing the stock of residential buildings in Spain as the first step in assessing possible damage caused to them by natural hazards. For the purposes of the study we had access to the SIOSE (the Spanish Land Use and Cover Information System), a high-resolution land-use model, as well as to a report on the financial valuations of this type of buildings throughout Spain. Using dasymetric disaggregation processes and GIS techniques we developed a geolocalized method of obtaining this information, which was the exposure variable in the general risk assessment formula. If hazard maps and risk assessment methods - the other variables - are available, the risk value can easily be obtained. An example of its application is given in a case study that assesses the risk of a landslide in the entire 23 200 km2 of the Valencia Autonomous Community (NUT2), the results of which are analyzed by municipal areas (LAU2) for the years 2005 and 2009.

  7. Circulating biomarkers for predicting cardiovascular disease risk : a systematic review and comprehensive overview of meta-analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holten, van T.C.; Waanders, L.F.; Groot, de P.G.; Vissers, J.; Hoefer, I.E.; Pasterkamp, G.; Prins, M.W.J.; Roest, M.

    2013-01-01

    Background : Cardiovascular disease is one of the major causes of death worldwide. Assessing the risk for cardiovascular disease is an important aspect in clinical decision making and setting a therapeutic strategy, and the use of serological biomarkers may improve this. Despite an overwhelming

  8. Event-Specific Analyses of Poly-Drug Abuse and Concomitant Risk Behavior in a College Bar District in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thombs, Dennis L.; O'Mara, Ryan; Dodd, Virginia J.; Merves, Michele L.; Weiler, Robert M.; Goldberger, Bruce A.; Pokorny, Steven B.; Moore, Christine; Reingle, Jennifer; Gullet, Sara E.

    2009-01-01

    Objective: The authors describe the epidemiology of risk behavior associated with poly-drug use in a college bar district of a large campus community. Participants: A total of 469 bar patrons participated in the study. Methods: The authors used self-report data and biological measures collected from patrons outside bars in July and August of…

  9. Factors predicting the development of pressure ulcers in an at-risk population who receive standardized preventive care: secondary analyses of a multicentre randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demarre, Liesbet; Verhaeghe, Sofie; Van Hecke, Ann; Clays, Els; Grypdonck, Maria; Beeckman, Dimitri

    2015-02-01

    To identify predictive factors associated with the development of pressure ulcers in patients at risk who receive standardized preventive care. Numerous studies have examined factors that predict risk for pressure ulcer development. Only a few studies identified risk factors associated with pressure ulcer development in hospitalized patients receiving standardized preventive care. Secondary analyses of data collected in a multicentre randomized controlled trial. The sample consisted of 610 consecutive patients at risk for pressure ulcer development (Braden Score Pressure ulcers in category II-IV were significantly associated with non-blanchable erythema, urogenital disorders and higher body temperature. Predictive factors significantly associated with superficial pressure ulcers were admission to an internal medicine ward, incontinence-associated dermatitis, non-blanchable erythema and a lower Braden score. Superficial sacral pressure ulcers were significantly associated with incontinence-associated dermatitis. Despite the standardized preventive measures they received, hospitalized patients with non-blanchable erythema, urogenital disorders and a higher body temperature were at increased risk for developing pressure ulcers. Improved identification of at-risk patients can be achieved by taking into account specific predictive factors. Even if preventive measures are in place, continuous assessment and tailoring of interventions is necessary in all patients at risk. Daily skin observation can be used to continuously monitor the effectiveness of the intervention. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Analyses of Helsinki 2012 European Athletics Championships injury and illness surveillance to discuss elite athletes risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edouard, Pascal; Depiesse, Frédéric; Branco, Pedro; Alonso, Juan-Manuel

    2014-09-01

    To further analyze newly incurred injuries and illnesses (I&Is) during Athletics International Championships to discuss risk factors. Prospective recording of newly occurred injuries and illnesses. The 2012 European Athletics (EA) Championships in Helsinki, Finland. National team and local organizing committee physicians and physiotherapists and 1342 registered athletes. Incidence and characteristics of new injuries and illnesses. Ninety-three percent of athletes were covered by medical teams, with a response rate of 91%. One hundred thirty-three injuries were reported (incidence of 98.4 injuries per 1000 registered athletes). Sixty-two injuries (47%) resulted in time loss from sport. The most common diagnosis was hamstring strain (11.4% of injuries and 21% of time-loss injuries). Injury risk was higher in males and increased with age. The highest incidences of injuries were found in combined events and middle- and long-distance events. Twenty-seven illnesses were reported (4.0 illnesses per 1000 athlete days). The most common diagnoses were upper respiratory tract infection (33.3%) and gastroenteritis/diarrhea (25.9%). During outdoor EA Championships, injury and illness incidences were slightly lower and injury characteristics were comparable with those during outdoor World Athletics Championships. During elite athletics Championships, gender (male), age (older than 30 years), finals, and some events (combined events and middle- and long-distance races) seem to be injury risk factors. Illness risk factors remain unclear. As in previous recommendations, preventive interventions should focus on overuse injuries, hamstring strains, and adequate rehabilitation of previous injuries, decreasing risk of infectious diseases transmission, appropriate event scheduling, sports clothes, and heat acclimatization.

  11. Varying geospatial analyses to assess climate risk and adaptive capacity in a hotter, drier Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, E.; Reyes, J. J.; Steele, C. M.; Rango, A.

    2017-12-01

    Assessing vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate variability and change is vital in securing food systems and sustaining rural livelihoods. Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners rely on science-based, decision-relevant, and localized information to maintain production, ecological viability, and economic returns. This contribution synthesizes a collection of research on the future of agricultural production in the American Southwest (SW). Research was based on a variety of geospatial methodologies and datasets to assess the vulnerability of rangelands and livestock, field crops, specialty crops, and forests in the SW to climate-risk and change. This collection emerged from the development of regional vulnerability assessments for agricultural climate-risk by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hub Network, established to deliver science-based information and technologies to enable climate-informed decision-making. Authors defined vulnerability differently based on their agricultural system of interest, although each primarily focuses on biophysical systems. We found that an inconsistent framework for vulnerability and climate risk was necessary to adequately capture the diversity, variability, and heterogeneity of SW landscapes, peoples, and agriculture. Through the diversity of research questions and methodologies, this collection of articles provides valuable information on various aspects of SW vulnerability. All articles relied on geographic information systems technology, with highly variable levels of complexity. Agricultural articles used National Agricultural Statistics Service data, either as tabular county level summaries or through the CropScape cropland raster datasets. Most relied on modeled historic and future climate information, but with differing assumptions regarding spatial resolution and temporal framework. We assert that it is essential to evaluate climate risk using a variety of complementary methodologies and

  12. Pedestrian road traffic injuries in urban Peruvian children and adolescents: case control analyses of personal and environmental risk factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Donroe

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Child pedestrian road traffic injuries (RTIs are an important cause of death and disability in poorer nations, however RTI prevention strategies in those countries largely draw upon studies conducted in wealthier countries. This research investigated personal and environmental risk factors for child pedestrian RTIs relevant to an urban, developing world setting.This is a case control study of personal and environmental risk factors for child pedestrian RTIs in San Juan de Miraflores, Lima, Perú. The analysis of personal risk factors included 100 cases of serious pedestrian RTIs and 200 age and gender matched controls. Demographic, socioeconomic, and injury data were collected. The environmental risk factor study evaluated vehicle and pedestrian movement and infrastructure at the sites in which 40 of the above case RTIs occurred and 80 control sites.After adjustment, factors associated with increased risk of child pedestrian RTIs included high vehicle volume (OR 7.88, 95%CI 1.97-31.52, absent lane demarcations (OR 6.59, 95% CI 1.65-26.26, high vehicle speed (OR 5.35, 95%CI 1.55-18.54, high street vendor density (OR 1.25, 95%CI 1.01-1.55, and more children living in the home (OR 1.25, 95%CI 1.00-1.56. Protective factors included more hours/day spent in school (OR 0.52, 95%CI 0.33-0.82 and years of family residence in the same home (OR 0.97, 95%CI 0.95-0.99.Reducing traffic volumes and speeds, limiting the number of street vendors on a given stretch of road, and improving lane demarcation should be evaluated as components of child pedestrian RTI interventions in poorer countries.

  13. ROC generated thresholds for field-assessed aerobic fitness related to body size and cardiometabolic risk in schoolchildren.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lynne M Boddy

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: 1. to investigate whether 20 m multi-stage shuttle run performance (20mSRT, an indirect measure of aerobic fitness, could discriminate between healthy and overweight status in 9-10.9 yr old schoolchildren using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC analysis; 2. Investigate if cardiometabolic risk differed by aerobic fitness group by applying the ROC cut point to a second, cross-sectional cohort. DESIGN: Analysis of cross-sectional data. PARTICIPANTS: 16,619 9-10.9 year old participants from SportsLinx project and 300 11-13.9 year old participants from the Welsh Schools Health and Fitness Study. OUTCOME MEASURES: SportsLinx; 20mSRT, body mass index (BMI, waist circumference, subscapular and superilliac skinfold thicknesses. Welsh Schools Health and Fitness Study; 20mSRT performance, waist circumference, and clustered cardiometabolic risk. ANALYSES: Three ROC curve analyses were completed, each using 20mSRT performance with ROC curve 1 related to BMI, curve 2 was related to waist circumference and 3 was related to skinfolds (estimated % body fat. These were repeated for both girls and boys. The mean of the three aerobic fitness thresholds was retained for analysis. The thresholds were subsequently applied to clustered cardiometabolic risk data from the Welsh Schools study to assess whether risk differed by aerobic fitness group. RESULTS: The diagnostic accuracy of the ROC generated thresholds was higher than would be expected by chance (all models AUC >0.7. The mean thresholds were 33 and 25 shuttles for boys and girls respectively. Participants classified as 'fit' had significantly lower cardiometabolic risk scores in comparison to those classed as unfit (p<0.001. CONCLUSION: The use of the ROC generated cut points by health professionals, teachers and coaches may provide the opportunity to apply population level 'risk identification and stratification' processes and plan for "at-risk" children to be referred onto intervention

  14. Understanding the NSAID related risk of vascular events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vonkeman, Harald Erwin; Brouwers, Jacobus R.B.J.; van de Laar, Mart A F J

    2006-01-01

    Concern is growing about an increased risk of thrombotic events (including myocardial infarction and stroke) during the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), in particular the so called selective cyclo-oxygenase-2 (COX 2) inhibitors. Although clinical trials give conflicting results

  15. Is parental age related to the risk of Alzheimer's disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.M. van Duijn (Cornelia); W. Schulte (Wim); T.A. Tanja (Teun); R. Haaxma (Rob); A.J. Lameris; R.J. Saan; A. Hofman (Albert)

    1990-01-01

    textabstractAdvanced maternal and paternal age were investigated as putative risk factors for AD in 198 clinically diagnosed Alzheimer patients and in 198 randomly selected healthy controls. No significant differences in average age of fathers and of mothers at birth of the subject were observed.

  16. Advanced prostate cancer risk in relation to toenail selenium levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geybels, M.S.; Verhage, B.A.J.; Schooten, F.J. van; Goldbohm, A.; Brandt, P.A. van den

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Selenium may prevent advanced prostate cancer (PCa), but most studies on this topic were conducted in populations with moderate to high selenium status. We investigated the association of toenail selenium, reflecting long-term selenium exposure, and advanced PCa risk in a population from

  17. Cancer risk in relation to serum copper levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, R J; Weiss, N S; Daling, J R; Rettmer, R L; Warnick, G R

    1989-08-01

    A nested, matched case-control study was conducted to assess the relationship between serum levels of copper and the subsequent risk of cancer. One hundred thirty-three cases of cancer were identified during 1974-1984 among 5000 members of a northwest Washington State employee cohort from whom serum specimens had been previously obtained and stored. Two hundred forty-one controls were selected at random from the cohort and were matched to the cases on the basis of age, sex, race, and date of blood draw. Serum copper levels were measured by atomic absorption spectrometry. Risk of a subsequent diagnosis of cancer was positively associated with serum copper levels, but only among those cases diagnosed within 4 years of the time the serum specimens were collected. Among cases diagnosed more than 4 years after specimen collection, there was no consistent association between serum copper levels and risk. Adjustment for age, sex, race, occupational status, cigarette smoking, family history of cancer, alcohol consumption, and, among females, use of exogenous hormones had no appreciable effect on these relationships. The findings suggest that the presence of cancer may increase serum copper levels several years prior to its diagnosis. They are less supportive of the hypothesis that serum copper levels affect cancer risk.

  18. Radon - The management of the risk related to radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    This leaflet briefly explains what radon is, where it comes from, and what it becomes. It indicates and briefly comments its concentrations in French departments, describes how radon can affect our health (lung cancer), describes how the risk can be reduced in buildings, and indicates the existing regulatory provisions

  19. Systematics of Plant-Pathogenic and Related Streptomyces Species Based on Phylogenetic Analyses of Multiple Gene Loci

    Science.gov (United States)

    The 10 species of Streptomyces implicated as the etiological agents in scab disease of potatoes or soft rot disease of sweet potatoes are distributed among 7 different phylogenetic clades in analyses based on 16S rRNA gene sequences, but high sequence similarity of this gene among Streptomyces speci...

  20. Review on risk factors related to lower back disorders at workplace

    Science.gov (United States)

    A' Tifah Jaffar, Nur; Nasrull Abdol Rahman, Mohd

    2017-08-01

    This review examines the evidence of the occurrence of risk exposure on work-related lower back disorders in the workplace. This review also investigates potential interactions between the risk factors in the workplace which include heavy physical work risk factor, static work postures risk factor, frequent bending and twisting risk factor, lifting risk factor, pushing and pulling risk factor, repetitive work risk factor, vibration risk factor, psychological and psychosocial risk factor that may be associated with symptoms of musculoskeletal disorders of lower back. These risk factors can reinforce each other and their influence can also be mediated by cultural or social factors. A systematic review of the literature was carried out by searching using databases and the searching strategy was used combined keyword for risk factors, work-related lower back disorders, heavy physical work, static work postures, frequent bending and twisting, lifting, pushing and pulling, repetitive work, vibration, psychological and psychosocial risk factor. A total of 67 articles were identified and reviewed. The risk factors identified that related for low back disorder are seven which are heavy physical work, static work postures, frequent bending and twisting, lifting, pushing and pulling, repetitive work, vibration, psychological and psychosocial risk factor and the level of evidence supporting the relationship with lower back disorders also described such as strong, moderate, insufficient, limited and no evidence. This result confirms that, existing of higher physical and psychosocial demand related to reported risk factors of low back disorders. The result also showed that previous reviews had evaluated relationship between risk factors of low back disorders and specific types of musculoskeletal disorders. This review also highlights the scarves evidence regarding some of the frequently reported risk factors for work related lower back disorders.

  1. Using prior risk-related knowledge to support risk management decisions: lessons learnt from a tunneling project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cárdenas, Ibsen Chivatá; Al-Jibouri, Saad S H; Halman, Johannes I M; van de Linde, Wim; Kaalberg, Frank

    2014-10-01

    The authors of this article have developed six probabilistic causal models for critical risks in tunnel works. The details of the models' development and evaluation were reported in two earlier publications of this journal. Accordingly, as a remaining step, this article is focused on the investigation into the use of these models in a real case study project. The use of the models is challenging given the need to provide information on risks that usually are both project and context dependent. The latter is of particular concern in underground construction projects. Tunnel risks are the consequences of interactions between site- and project-specific factors. Large variations and uncertainties in ground conditions as well as project singularities give rise to particular risk factors with very specific impacts. These circumstances mean that existing risk information, gathered from previous projects, is extremely difficult to use in other projects. This article considers these issues and addresses the extent to which prior risk-related knowledge, in the form of causal models, as the models developed for the investigation, can be used to provide useful risk information for the case study project. The identification and characterization of the causes and conditions that lead to failures and their interactions as well as their associated probabilistic information is assumed to be risk-related knowledge in this article. It is shown that, irrespective of existing constraints on using information and knowledge from past experiences, construction risk-related knowledge can be transferred and used from project to project in the form of comprehensive models based on probabilistic-causal relationships. The article also shows that the developed models provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures by means of the identification of critical risk factors, and therefore they support risk management decisions. Similarly, a number of limitations of the models are