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The Vietnamese lending rate, policy-related rate, and monetary policy post-1997 Asian financial crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chu V. Nguyen

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Asymmetries in the Vietnamese lending central bank’s policy-related rate spread were documented. Empirical results revealed that the spread adjusts to the threshold faster when the central bank’s policy-related rates decrease relative to the lending rates than when the central bank’s policy-related rates move in the opposite direction. Additionally, the empirical findings indicate that Vietnamese commercial banks exhibit competitive rate setting behavior which may be attributable to graft maximization by bank’s management. The results also show bidirectional Granger causality between the Vietnamese lending rate and the central bank’s policy-related rate, indicating that the lending rate and the central bank’s policy-related rate affect each other’s movements. These results suggest that monetary authority can use its countercyclical monetary policy instruments to achieve its macroeconomics objectives. However, the estimation results of the GARCH (2, 3-in-Mean model suggest that they should intervene more frequently and by small policy measures to minimize the conditional variance of the spread to minimize the magnitude of the cycle of the lending rate.
Factoring vs linear modeling in rate estimation: a simulation study of relative accuracy.

Science.gov (United States)

Maldonado, G; Greenland, S

1998-07-01

A common strategy for modeling dose-response in epidemiology is to transform ordered exposures and covariates into sets of dichotomous indicator variables (that is, to factor the variables). Factoring tends to increase estimation variance, but it also tends to decrease bias and thus may increase or decrease total accuracy. We conducted a simulation study to examine the impact of factoring on the accuracy of rate estimation. Factored and unfactored Poisson regression models were fit to follow-up study datasets that were randomly generated from 37,500 population model forms that ranged from subadditive to supramultiplicative. In the situations we examined, factoring sometimes substantially improved accuracy relative to fitting the corresponding unfactored model, sometimes substantially decreased accuracy, and sometimes made little difference. The difference in accuracy between factored and unfactored models depended in a complicated fashion on the difference between the true and fitted model forms, the strength of exposure and covariate effects in the population, and the study size. It may be difficult in practice to predict when factoring is increasing or decreasing accuracy. We recommend, therefore, that the strategy of factoring variables be supplemented with other strategies for modeling dose-response.
Internal state variable plasticity-damage modeling of AISI 4140 steel including microstructure-property relations: temperature and strain rate effects

Science.gov (United States)

Nacif el Alaoui, Reda

Mechanical structure-property relations have been quantified for AISI 4140 steel. under different strain rates and temperatures. The structure-property relations were used. to calibrate a microstructure-based internal state variable plasticity-damage model for. monotonic tension, compression and torsion plasticity, as well as damage evolution. Strong stress state and temperature dependences were observed for the AISI 4140 steel. Tension tests on three different notched Bridgman specimens were undertaken to study. the damage-triaxiality dependence for model validation purposes. Fracture surface. analysis was performed using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) to quantify the void. nucleation and void sizes in the different specimens. The stress-strain behavior exhibited. a fairly large applied stress state (tension, compression dependence, and torsion), a. moderate temperature dependence, and a relatively small strain rate dependence.
Rate and State Friction Relation for Nanoscale Contacts: Thermally Activated Prandtl-Tomlinson Model with Chemical Aging

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Kaiwen; Goldsby, David L.; Carpick, Robert W.

2018-05-01

Rate and state friction (RSF) laws are widely used empirical relationships that describe macroscale to microscale frictional behavior. They entail a linear combination of the direct effect (the increase of friction with sliding velocity due to the reduced influence of thermal excitations) and the evolution effect (the change in friction with changes in contact "state," such as the real contact area or the degree of interfacial chemical bonds). Recent atomic force microscope (AFM) experiments and simulations found that nanoscale single-asperity amorphous silica-silica contacts exhibit logarithmic aging (increasing friction with time) over several decades of contact time, due to the formation of interfacial chemical bonds. Here we establish a physically based RSF relation for such contacts by combining the thermally activated Prandtl-Tomlinson (PTT) model with an evolution effect based on the physics of chemical aging. This thermally activated Prandtl-Tomlinson model with chemical aging (PTTCA), like the PTT model, uses the loading point velocity for describing the direct effect, not the tip velocity (as in conventional RSF laws). Also, in the PTTCA model, the combination of the evolution and direct effects may be nonlinear. We present AFM data consistent with the PTTCA model whereby in aging tests, for a given hold time, static friction increases with the logarithm of the loading point velocity. Kinetic friction also increases with the logarithm of the loading point velocity at sufficiently high velocities, but at a different increasing rate. The discrepancy between the rates of increase of static and kinetic friction with velocity arises from the fact that appreciable aging during static contact changes the energy landscape. Our approach extends the PTT model, originally used for crystalline substrates, to amorphous materials. It also establishes how conventional RSF laws can be modified for nanoscale single-asperity contacts to provide a physically based friction
Modeling inflation rates and exchange rates in Ghana: application of multivariate GARCH models.

Science.gov (United States)

Nortey, Ezekiel Nn; Ngoh, Delali D; Doku-Amponsah, Kwabena; Ofori-Boateng, Kenneth

2015-01-01

This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly weighted depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar for the period is 20.4%. There was evidence that, the fact that inflation rate was stable, does not mean that exchange rates and interest rates are expected to be stable. Rather, when the cedi performs well on the forex, inflation rates and interest rates react positively and become stable in the long run. The BEKK model is robust to modelling and forecasting volatility of inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The DCC model is robust to model the conditional and unconditional correlation among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The BEKK model, which forecasted high exchange rate volatility for the year 2014, is very robust for modelling the exchange rates in Ghana. The mean equation of the DCC model is also robust to forecast inflation rates in Ghana.
Large-Scale Variation in Forest Carbon Turnover Rate and its Relation to Climate - Remote Sensing vs. Global Vegetation Models

Science.gov (United States)

Carvalhais, N.; Thurner, M.; Beer, C.; Forkel, M.; Rademacher, T. T.; Santoro, M.; Tum, M.; Schmullius, C.

2015-12-01

While vegetation productivity is known to be strongly correlated to climate, there is a need for an improved understanding of the underlying processes of vegetation carbon turnover and their importance at a global scale. This shortcoming has been due to the lack of spatially extensive information on vegetation carbon stocks, which we recently have been able to overcome by a biomass dataset covering northern boreal and temperate forests originating from radar remote sensing. Based on state-of-the-art products on biomass and NPP, we are for the first time able to study the relation between carbon turnover rate and a set of climate indices in northern boreal and temperate forests. The implementation of climate-related mortality processes, for instance drought, fire, frost or insect effects, is often lacking or insufficient in current global vegetation models. In contrast to our observation-based findings, investigated models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT, are able to reproduce spatial climate - turnover rate relationships only to a limited extent. While most of the models compare relatively well to observation-based NPP, simulated vegetation carbon stocks are severely biased compared to our biomass dataset. Current limitations lead to considerable uncertainties in the estimated vegetation carbon turnover, contributing substantially to the forest feedback to climate change. Our results are the basis for improving mortality concepts in global vegetation models and estimating their impact on the land carbon balance.
Flow rate-pressure drop relation for deformable shallow microfluidic channels

Science.gov (United States)

Christov, Ivan C.; Cognet, Vincent; Shidhore, Tanmay C.; Stone, Howard A.

2018-04-01

Laminar flow in devices fabricated from soft materials causes deformation of the passage geometry, which affects the flow rate--pressure drop relation. For a given pressure drop, in channels with narrow rectangular cross-section, the flow rate varies as the cube of the channel height, so deformation can produce significant quantitative effects, including nonlinear dependence on the pressure drop [{Gervais, T., El-Ali, J., G\\"unther, A. \\& Jensen, K.\\ F.}\\ 2006 Flow-induced deformation of shallow microfluidic channels.\\ \\textit{Lab Chip} \\textbf{6}, 500--507]. Gervais et. al. proposed a successful model of the deformation-induced change in the flow rate by heuristically coupling a Hookean elastic response with the lubrication approximation for Stokes flow. However, their model contains a fitting parameter that must be found for each channel shape by performing an experiment. We present a perturbation approach for the flow rate--pressure drop relation in a shallow deformable microchannel using the theory of isotropic quasi-static plate bending and the Stokes equations under a lubrication approximation (specifically, the ratio of the channel's height to its width and of the channel's height to its length are both assumed small). Our result contains no free parameters and confirms Gervais et. al.'s observation that the flow rate is a quartic polynomial of the pressure drop. The derived flow rate--pressure drop relation compares favorably with experimental measurements.
Modeling Electric Discharges with Entropy Production Rate Principles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Christen

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Under which circumstances are variational principles based on entropy production rate useful tools for modeling steady states of electric (gas discharge systems far from equilibrium? It is first shown how various different approaches, as Steenbeck’s minimum voltage and Prigogine’s minimum entropy production rate principles are related to the maximum entropy production rate principle (MEPP. Secondly, three typical examples are discussed, which provide a certain insight in the structure of the models that are candidates for MEPP application. It is then thirdly argued that MEPP, although not being an exact physical law, may provide reasonable model parameter estimates, provided the constraints contain the relevant (nonlinear physical effects and the parameters to be determined are related to disregarded weak constraints that affect mainly global entropy production. Finally, it is additionally conjectured that a further reason for the success of MEPP in certain far from equilibrium systems might be based on a hidden linearity of the underlying kinetic equation(s.
On rate-state and Coulomb failure models

Science.gov (United States)

Gomberg, J.; Beeler, N.; Blanpied, M.

2000-01-01

We examine the predictions of Coulomb failure stress and rate-state frictional models. We study the change in failure time (clock advance) Δt due to stress step perturbations (i.e., coseismic static stress increases) added to "background" stressing at a constant rate (i.e., tectonic loading) at time t0. The predictability of Δt implies a predictable change in seismicity rate r(t)/r0, testable using earthquake catalogs, where r0 is the constant rate resulting from tectonic stressing. Models of r(t)/r0, consistent with general properties of aftershock sequences, must predict an Omori law seismicity decay rate, a sequence duration that is less than a few percent of the mainshock cycle time and a return directly to the background rate. A Coulomb model requires that a fault remains locked during loading, that failure occur instantaneously, and that Δt is independent of t0. These characteristics imply an instantaneous infinite seismicity rate increase of zero duration. Numerical calculations of r(t)/r0 for different state evolution laws show that aftershocks occur on faults extremely close to failure at the mainshock origin time, that these faults must be "Coulomb-like," and that the slip evolution law can be precluded. Real aftershock population characteristics also may constrain rate-state constitutive parameters; a may be lower than laboratory values, the stiffness may be high, and/or normal stress may be lower than lithostatic. We also compare Coulomb and rate-state models theoretically. Rate-state model fault behavior becomes more Coulomb-like as constitutive parameter a decreases relative to parameter b. This is because the slip initially decelerates, representing an initial healing of fault contacts. The deceleration is more pronounced for smaller a, more closely simulating a locked fault. Even when the rate-state Δt has Coulomb characteristics, its magnitude may differ by some constant dependent on b. In this case, a rate-state model behaves like a modified
Cost-related model for transit rates in electric power distribution networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collstrand, F.

1994-02-01

The planned deregulation of the swedish electrical power market will require a new structure of the electrical energy rates. In this report different models of transit rates are studied. The report includes studies of literature and a proposal to a rate structure and is made specifically for Malmoe Energi AB. The differences between various methods of calculating the transfer cost are illustrated. Further, the build-up of the tariff structure and its base elements are discussed. The costs are divided on different categories of costumers and shows the cost for each customer. The new regulations should apply simultaneously to all networks, independent of the voltage level. The transit cost should be based on a number of basic elements: capital cost, operation and maintenance, losses, measuring and administration. Capital cost and operation and maintenance should be charged as power fees, the loss cost as an energy fee and the measuring and administration cost as a fixed fee. The customer bill should be split into two parts, one for the transit cost and one for the energy usage. 15 refs., 37 tabs., 6 figs
Self-rated health and sickness-related absence: the modifying role of civic participation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lancee, B.; ter Hoeven, C.L.

2010-01-01

In this study, we examined civic participation as an effect modifier between self-rated health and absence from work. Building on the theoretical framework of social exchange, we use German data to test a conceptual model relating self-rated health to sickness-related absence, as well as the
Relaxed Poisson cure rate models.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodrigues, Josemar; Cordeiro, Gauss M; Cancho, Vicente G; Balakrishnan, N

2016-03-01

The purpose of this article is to make the standard promotion cure rate model (Yakovlev and Tsodikov, ) more flexible by assuming that the number of lesions or altered cells after a treatment follows a fractional Poisson distribution (Laskin, ). It is proved that the well-known Mittag-Leffler relaxation function (Berberan-Santos, ) is a simple way to obtain a new cure rate model that is a compromise between the promotion and geometric cure rate models allowing for superdispersion. So, the relaxed cure rate model developed here can be considered as a natural and less restrictive extension of the popular Poisson cure rate model at the cost of an additional parameter, but a competitor to negative-binomial cure rate models (Rodrigues et al., ). Some mathematical properties of a proper relaxed Poisson density are explored. A simulation study and an illustration of the proposed cure rate model from the Bayesian point of view are finally presented. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Universal Rate Model Selector: A Method to Quickly Find the Best-Fit Kinetic Rate Model for an Experimental Rate Profile

Science.gov (United States)

2017-08-01

k2 – k1) 3.3 Universal Kinetic Rate Platform Development Kinetic rate models range from pure chemical reactions to mass transfer...14 8. The rate model that best fits the experimental data is a first-order or homogeneous catalytic reaction ...Avrami (7), and intraparticle diffusion (6) rate equations to name a few. A single fitting algorithm (kinetic rate model ) for a reaction does not
Lapse rate modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

De Giovanni, Domenico

2010-01-01

prepayment models for mortgage backed securities, this paper builds a Rational Expectation (RE) model describing the policyholders' behavior in lapsing the contract. A market model with stochastic interest rates is considered, and the pricing is carried out through numerical approximation...
Lapse Rate Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

De Giovanni, Domenico

prepayment models for mortgage backed securities, this paper builds a Rational Expectation (RE) model describing the policyholders' behavior in lapsing the contract. A market model with stochastic interest rates is considered, and the pricing is carried out through numerical approximation...
A model of clearance rate regulation in mussels

Science.gov (United States)

Fréchette, Marcel

2012-10-01

Clearance rate regulation has been modelled as an instantaneous response to food availability, independent of the internal state of the animals. This view is incompatible with latent effects during ontogeny and phenotypic flexibility in clearance rate. Internal-state regulation of clearance rate is required to account for these patterns. Here I develop a model of internal-state based regulation of clearance rate. External factors such as suspended sediments are included in the model. To assess the relative merits of instantaneous regulation and internal-state regulation, I modelled blue mussel clearance rate and growth using a DEB model. In the usual standard feeding module, feeding is governed by a Holling's Type II response to food concentration. In the internal-state feeding module, gill ciliary activity and thus clearance rate are driven by internal reserve level. Factors such as suspended sediments were not included in the simulations. The two feeding modules were compared on the basis of their ability to capture the impact of latent effects, of environmental heterogeneity in food abundance and of physiological flexibility on clearance rate and individual growth. The Holling feeding module was unable to capture the effect of any of these sources of variability. In contrast, the internal-state feeding module did so without any modification or ad hoc calibration. Latent effects, however, appeared transient. With simple annual variability in temperature and food concentration, the relationship between clearance rate and food availability predicted by the internal-state feeding module was quite similar to that observed in Norwegian fjords. I conclude that in contrast with the usual Holling feeding module, internal-state regulation of clearance rate is consistent with well-documented growth and clearance rate patterns.
A critique of recent models for human error rate assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Apostolakis, G.E.

1988-01-01

This paper critically reviews two groups of models for assessing human error rates under accident conditions. The first group, which includes the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) handbook model and the human cognitive reliability (HCR) model, considers as fundamental the time that is available to the operators to act. The second group, which is represented by the success likelihood index methodology multiattribute utility decomposition (SLIM-MAUD) model, relies on ratings of the human actions with respect to certain qualitative factors and the subsequent derivation of error rates. These models are evaluated with respect to two criteria: the treatment of uncertainties and the internal coherence of the models. In other words, this evaluation focuses primarily on normative aspects of these models. The principal findings are as follows: (1) Both of the time-related models provide human error rates as a function of the available time for action and the prevailing conditions. However, the HCR model ignores the important issue of state-of-knowledge uncertainties, dealing exclusively with stochastic uncertainty, whereas the model presented in the NRC handbook handles both types of uncertainty. (2) SLIM-MAUD provides a highly structured approach for the derivation of human error rates under given conditions. However, the treatment of the weights and ratings in this model is internally inconsistent. (author)
A statistical modeling approach to build expert credit risk rating systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Waagepetersen, Rasmus

2010-01-01

This paper presents an efficient method for extracting expert knowledge when building a credit risk rating system. Experts are asked to rate a sample of counterparty cases according to creditworthiness. Next, a statistical model is used to capture the relation between the characteristics...... of a counterparty and the expert rating. For any counterparty the model can identify the rating, which would be agreed upon by the majority of experts. Furthermore, the model can quantify the concurrence among experts. The approach is illustrated by a case study regarding the construction of an application score...
Exchange Rate â€“ Relative Price Nonlinear Cointegration Relationship in Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Venus Khim-Sen Liew; Chee-Keong Choong; Evan Lau; Kian-Ping Lim

2005-01-01

The finding of exchange rateâ€“relative price nonlinear cointegration relationship in Malaysia, among others, suggests that nonlinear Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) equilibrium may be regarded as reference point in judging the short run misalignment of the Ringgit currency and thereby deducing effective policy actions. Moreover, economists who wish to extend the simple PPP exchange rate model into the more complicated monetary exchange models may do so comfortably, at least in the text of Mala...
Exchange Rate – Relative Price Nonlinear Cointegration Relationship in Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Venus Khim-Sen Liew; Chee-Keong Choong; Evan Lau; Kian-Ping Lim

2005-01-01

The finding of exchange rate–relative price nonlinear cointegration relationship in Malaysia, among others, suggests that nonlinear Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) equilibrium may be regarded as reference point in judging the short run misalignment of the Ringgit currency and thereby deducing effective policy actions. Moreover, economists who wish to extend the simple PPP exchange rate model into the more complicated monetary exchange models may do so comfortably, at least in the text of Malays...

The Russian Landing Rate, Central Bank’s Policy Related Rate and Intermediation Premium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chu V. Nguyen

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This paper illustrates asymmetries in the Russian intermediation premium as measured by the spread between the commercial lending rate and the Central Bank’s policy related rate. Empirical results have shown that the Russian intermediation premium adjusts to the threshold faster when the Central Bank’s policy related rates increase relative to lending rates as opposed to when the Central Bank’s policy related rates move in the opposite direction. The findings of this paper suggest that during the period when the Russian Federation faced formidable challenges from a sharp decline in oil prices and reduced access to international capital markets due to Western sanctions, the Central Bank of Russia was not effective in utilizing countercyclical monetary policy to achieve macroeconomic objectives and commercial banks exhibited predatory pricing behavior.
Modified Dugdale crack models - some easy crack relations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Lauge Fuglsang

1997-01-01

the same strength as a plain Dugdale model. The critical energy release rates Gamma_CR, however, become different. Expressions (with easy computer algorithms) are presented in the paper which relate critical energy release rates and crack geometry to arbitrary cohesive stress distributions.For future...... lifetime analysis of viscoelastic materials strain energy release rates, crack geometries, and cohesive stress distributions are considered as related to sub-critical loads sigma stress-deformation tests......The Dugdale crack model is widely used in materials science to predict strength of defective (cracked) materials. A stable Dugdale crack in an elasto-plastic material is prevented from spreading by uniformly distributed cohesive stresses acting in narrow areas at the crack tips. These stresses...
Inflation Rate Modelling in Indonesia

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Rezzy Eko Caraka

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The purposes of this research were to analyse: (i Modelling the inflation rate in Indonesia with parametric regression. (ii Modelling the inflation rate in Indonesia using non-parametric regression spline multivariable (iii Determining the best model the inflation rate in Indonesia (iv Explaining the relationship inflation model parametric and non-parametric regression spline multivariable. Based on the analysis using the two methods mentioned the coefficient of determination (R2 in parametric regression of 65.1% while non-parametric amounted to 99.39%. To begin with, the factor of money supply or money stock, crude oil prices and the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar is significant on the rate of inflation. The stability of inflation is essential to support sustainable economic development and improve people's welfare. In conclusion, unstable inflation will complicate business planning business activities, both in production and investment activities as well as in the pricing of goods and services produced.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v15i2.3260
Magnet-related injury rates in children: a single hospital experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Agbo, Chioma; Lee, Lois; Chiang, Vincent; Landscahft, Assaf; Kimia, Tomer; Monuteaux, Michael C; Kimia, Amir A

2013-07-01

The ingestion of multiple magnets simultaneously or the placement of magnets in both nares can lead to serious injury resulting from the attraction of the magnets across the tissues. The impact of mandatory standards for toys containing magnets has not been thoroughly investigated. The aim of the present study was to describe the emergency department (ED) visit rate for magnet-related injuries. We performed a retrospective study of children evaluated for magnet-related injuries from 1995 to 2012 in an urban tertiary care pediatric ED. We identified cases using a computerized text-search methodology followed by manual chart review. We included children evaluated for magnet ingestion or impaction in the ears, nose, vagina, or rectum. We assessed the type and number of magnets as well as management and required interventions. A Poisson regression model was used to analyze rates of injury over time. We identified 112 cases of magnet injuries. The median patient age was 6 years (IQR 3.5, 10), and 54% were male. Compared to before 2006, the rate for all magnet-related injuries in 2007-2012 (incidence rate ratio 3.44; 95% confidence interval 2.3-5.11) as well as multiple magnet-related injuries (incidence rate ratio 7.54; 95% confidence interval 3.51-16.19) increased. Swallowed magnets accounted for 86% of the injuries. Thirteen patients had endoscopy performed for magnet removal (12%), and 4 (4%) had a surgical intervention. Magnets from toys account for the majority of the injuries. The number of ED visits for magnet-related injuries in children may be rising and are underreported, with an increase in the proportion of multiple magnets involvement. In our case series, mandatory standard for toys had no mitigating effect.
Kalman Filter or VAR Models to Predict Unemployment Rate in Romania?

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Simionescu Mihaela

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper brings to light an economic problem that frequently appears in practice: For the same variable, more alternative forecasts are proposed, yet the decision-making process requires the use of a single prediction. Therefore, a forecast assessment is necessary to select the best prediction. The aim of this research is to propose some strategies for improving the unemployment rate forecast in Romania by conducting a comparative accuracy analysis of unemployment rate forecasts based on two quantitative methods: Kalman filter and vector-auto-regressive (VAR models. The first method considers the evolution of unemployment components, while the VAR model takes into account the interdependencies between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. According to the Granger causality test, the inflation rate in the first difference is a cause of the unemployment rate in the first difference, these data sets being stationary. For the unemployment rate forecasts for 2010-2012 in Romania, the VAR models (in all variants of VAR simulations determined more accurate predictions than Kalman filter based on two state space models for all accuracy measures. According to mean absolute scaled error, the dynamic-stochastic simulations used in predicting unemployment based on the VAR model are the most accurate. Another strategy for improving the initial forecasts based on the Kalman filter used the adjusted unemployment data transformed by the application of the Hodrick-Prescott filter. However, the use of VAR models rather than different variants of the Kalman filter methods remains the best strategy in improving the quality of the unemployment rate forecast in Romania. The explanation of these results is related to the fact that the interaction of unemployment with inflation provides useful information for predictions of the evolution of unemployment related to its components (i.e., natural unemployment and cyclical component.
Modeling of the interest rate policy of the central bank of Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Shelomentsev, A. G.; Berg, D. B.; Detkov, A. A.; Rylova, A. P.

2017-11-01

This paper investigates interactions among money supply, exchange rates, inflation, and nominal interest rates, which are regulating parameters of the Central bank policy. The study is based on the data received from Russian source in 2002-2016. The major findings are 1) the interest rate demonstrates almost no relation with inflation; 2) ties of money supply and the nominal interest rate are strong; 3) money supply and inflation show meaningful relations only in comparison to their growth rates. We have developed a dynamic model, which can be used in forecasting of macroeconomic processes.
A High-Rate, Single-Crystal Model including Phase Transformations, Plastic Slip, and Twinning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Addessio, Francis L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Bronkhorst, Curt Allan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Bolme, Cynthia Anne [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Explosive Science and Shock Physics Division; Brown, Donald William [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Materials Science and Technology Division; Cerreta, Ellen Kathleen [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Materials Science and Technology Division; Lebensohn, Ricardo A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Materials Science and Technology Division; Lookman, Turab [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Luscher, Darby Jon [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Mayeur, Jason Rhea [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Morrow, Benjamin M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Materials Science and Technology Division; Rigg, Paulo A. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States). Dept. of Physics. Inst. for Shock Physics

2016-08-09

An anisotropic, rate-dependent, single-crystal approach for modeling materials under the conditions of high strain rates and pressures is provided. The model includes the effects of large deformations, nonlinear elasticity, phase transformations, and plastic slip and twinning. It is envisioned that the model may be used to examine these coupled effects on the local deformation of materials that are subjected to ballistic impact or explosive loading. The model is formulated using a multiplicative decomposition of the deformation gradient. A plate impact experiment on a multi-crystal sample of titanium was conducted. The particle velocities at the back surface of three crystal orientations relative to the direction of impact were measured. Molecular dynamics simulations were conducted to investigate the details of the high-rate deformation and pursue issues related to the phase transformation for titanium. Simulations using the single crystal model were conducted and compared to the high-rate experimental data for the impact loaded single crystals. The model was found to capture the features of the experiments.
Modeling the Volatility of Exchange Rates: GARCH Models

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Fahima Charef

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The modeling of the dynamics of the exchange rate at a long time remains a financial and economic research center. In our research we tried to study the relationship between the evolution of exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals. Our empirical study is based on a series of exchange rates for the Tunisian dinar against three currencies of major trading partners (dollar, euro, yen and fundamentals (the terms of trade, the inflation rate, the interest rate differential, of monthly data, from jan 2000 to dec-2014, for the case of the Tunisia. We have adopted models of conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH. The results indicate that there is a partial relationship between the evolution of the Tunisian dinar exchange rates and macroeconomic variables.
Florida's model of nursing home Medicaid reimbursement for disaster-related expenses.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Kali S; Hyer, Kathryn; Brown, Lisa M; Polivka-West, LuMarie; Branch, Laurence G

2010-04-01

This study describes Florida's model of Medicaid nursing home (NH) reimbursement to compensate NHs for disaster-related expenses incurred as a result of 8 hurricanes within a 2-year period. This Florida model can serve as a demonstration for a national model for disaster-related reimbursement. Florida reimburses NHs for approved disaster-related costs through hurricane interim rate requests (IRRs). The state developed its unique Medicaid per diem rate temporary add-on by adapting its standard rate-setting reimbursement methodology. To understand the payment mechanisms and the costs that facilities incurred as a result of natural disasters, we examined the IRRs and cost reports for facilities requesting and receiving reimbursement. Cost reports and IRR applications indicated that Florida Medicaid spent close to $16 million to pay for hurricane-related costs to NHs. Without Florida's Hurricane IRR program, many facilities would have not been reimbursed for their hurricane-related costs. Florida's model is one that Medicare and other states should consider adopting to ensure that NHs receive adequate reimbursement for disaster-related expenses, including tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, blizzards, and other catastrophic events.
INES rating of radiation protection related events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hort, M.

2009-01-01

In this presentation, based on the draft Manual, a short review of the use of the INES rating of events concerning radiation protection is given, based on a new INES User's Manual edition. The presentation comprises a brief history of the scale development, general description of the scale and the main principles of the INES rating. Several examples of the use of the scale for radiation protection related events are mentioned. In the presentation, the term 'radiation protection related events' is used for radiation source and transport related events outside the nuclear installations. (authors)
Seasonal variations of indoor microbial exposures and their relation to temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Frankel, Mika; Bekö, Gabriel; Timm, Michael; Gustavsen, Sine; Hansen, Erik Wind; Madsen, Anne Mette

2012-12-01

Indoor microbial exposure has been related to adverse pulmonary health effects. Exposure assessment is not standardized, and various factors may affect the measured exposure. The aim of this study was to investigate the seasonal variation of selected microbial exposures and their associations with temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates in Danish homes. Airborne inhalable dust was sampled in five Danish homes throughout the four seasons of 1 year (indoors, n = 127; outdoors, n = 37). Measurements included culturable fungi and bacteria, endotoxin, N-acetyl-beta-d-glucosaminidase, total inflammatory potential, particles (0.75 to 15 μm), temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates. Significant seasonal variation was found for all indoor microbial exposures, excluding endotoxin. Indoor fungi peaked in summer (median, 235 CFU/m(3)) and were lowest in winter (median, 26 CFU/m(3)). Indoor bacteria peaked in spring (median, 2,165 CFU/m(3)) and were lowest in summer (median, 240 CFU/m(3)). Concentrations of fungi were predominately higher outdoors than indoors, whereas bacteria, endotoxin, and inhalable dust concentrations were highest indoors. Bacteria and endotoxin correlated with the mass of inhalable dust and number of particles. Temperature and air exchange rates were positively associated with fungi and N-acetyl-beta-d-glucosaminidase and negatively with bacteria and the total inflammatory potential. Although temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates were significantly associated with several indoor microbial exposures, they could not fully explain the observed seasonal variations when tested in a mixed statistical model. In conclusion, the season significantly affects indoor microbial exposures, which are influenced by temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates.
Relating business modelling and enterprise architecture

OpenAIRE

Meertens, Lucas Onno

2013-01-01

This thesis proposes a methodology for creating business models, evaluating them, and relating them to enterprise architecture. The methodology consists of several steps, leading from an organization’s current situation to a target situation, via business models and enterprise architecture. Currently, increasing amounts of businesses rely on IT systems to do their business. However, success rates of IT implementations projects are low. Difficulties exist in aligning existing IT systems with b...
Ameliorative effects of low dose/low dose-rate irradiation on reactive oxygen species-related diseases model mice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nomura, Takaharu

2008-01-01

Living organisms have developed complex biological system which protects themselves against environmental radiation, and irradiation with proper dose, dose-rate and irradiation time can stimulate their biological responses against oxidative stress evoked by the irradiation. Because reactive oxygen species are involved in various human diseases, non-toxic low dose/low dose-rate radiation can be utilized for the amelioration of such diseases. In this study, we used mouse experimental models for fatty liver, nephritis, diabetes, and ageing to elucidate the ameliorative effect of low dose/low dose-rate radiation in relation to endogenous antioxidant activity. Single irradiation at 0.5 Gy ameliorates carbon tetrachloride-induced fatty liver. The irradiation increases hepatic anti-oxidative system involving glutathione and glutathione peroxidase, suggesting that endogenous radical scavenger is essential for the ameliorative effect of low dose radiation on carbon tetrachloride-induced fatty liver. Single irradiation at 0.5 Gy ameliorates ferric nitrilotriacetate-induced nephritis. The irradiation increases catalase and decreases superoxide dismutase in kidney. The result suggests that low dose radiation reduced generation of hydroxide radical generation by reducing cellular hydroperoxide level. Single irradiation at 0.5 Gy at 12 week of age ameliorates incidence of type I diabetes in non-obese diabetic (NOD) mice through the suppression of inflammatory activity of splenocytes, and resultant apoptosis of β-cells in pancreas. The irradiation activities of superoxide dismutase and catalase, which coordinately diminish intracellular reactive oxygen species. Continuous irradiation at 0.70 mGy/hr from 10 week of age elongates life span, and suppresses alopecia in type II diabetesmice. The irradiation improved glucose clearance without affecting insulin-resistance, and increased pancreatic catalase activity. The results suggest that continuous low dose-rate irradiation protect
Long Term Validity of Monetary Exchange Rate Model: Evidence from Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ugur Ahmet

2014-03-01

Full Text Available In this study, it was analyzed if there is a long term relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals within the periods of 1998:1-2011:2 in Turkey. This relationship has been analysed by using structural VAR (SVAR model. Besides, Granger causality test and Dolado-Lütkepohl Granger causality test were used to determine if there were a causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals. As a result of the SVAR model, the relationship among the series related to nominal exchange rate and money supply, GDP, interest rate in Turkey in long term were not determined and at the end of causality tests, causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals were not determined.
A model for predicting wear rates in tooth enamel.

Science.gov (United States)

Borrero-Lopez, Oscar; Pajares, Antonia; Constantino, Paul J; Lawn, Brian R

2014-09-01

It is hypothesized that wear of enamel is sensitive to the presence of sharp particulates in oral fluids and masticated foods. To this end, a generic model for predicting wear rates in brittle materials is developed, with specific application to tooth enamel. Wear is assumed to result from an accumulation of elastic-plastic micro-asperity events. Integration over all such events leads to a wear rate relation analogous to Archard׳s law, but with allowance for variation in asperity angle and compliance. The coefficient K in this relation quantifies the wear severity, with an arbitrary distinction between 'mild' wear (low K) and 'severe' wear (high K). Data from the literature and in-house wear-test experiments on enamel specimens in lubricant media (water, oil) with and without sharp third-body particulates (silica, diamond) are used to validate the model. Measured wear rates can vary over several orders of magnitude, depending on contact asperity conditions, accounting for the occurrence of severe enamel removal in some human patients (bruxing). Expressions for the depth removal rate and number of cycles to wear down occlusal enamel in the low-crowned tooth forms of some mammals are derived, with tooth size and enamel thickness as key variables. The role of 'hard' versus 'soft' food diets in determining evolutionary paths in different hominin species is briefly considered. A feature of the model is that it does not require recourse to specific material removal mechanisms, although processes involving microplastic extrusion and microcrack coalescence are indicated. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
A model for rate-dependent but time-independent material behavior in cyclic plasticity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dafalias, Y.F.; Ramey, M.R.; Sheikh, I.

1977-01-01

It is the purpose of this paper to present a model for rate-dependent but time independent material behavior under cyclic loading in the plastic range. What is referred to as time independent behavior here, is the absence of creep and relaxation phenomena from the behavior of the model. The notion of plastic internal variables (piv) is introduced, as properly invariant scalars or second order tensors, whose constitutive relations are rate-type equations not necessarily homogeneous of oder one in the rates, as it would be required for independent plasticity. The concept of a yield surface in the strain space and a loading function in terms of the total strain rate is introduced, where the sign of the loading function defines zero or non-zero value of the rate of piv. Thus rate dependence is achieved without time dependent behavior (no creep or relaxation). In addition, discrete memory parameters associated with the most recent event of unloading-reloading in different directions enter the constitutive relations for the piv. A particular form of the constitutive relations is assumed, where the rate of piv is a linear combination of the strain rate components, with coefficients depending on the second invariant of the strain rate tensor, which can be viewed as a scalar measure of the rate of deformation in the multiaxial case and a direct generalization of the uniaxial strain rate. This leads to a particularly simple form of the constitutive relations resembling the ones for rate independent plasticity. The uniaxial counterpart would be a relation between the plastic strain rate (as one of the piv) and the total strain rate through a plastic modulus which depends on the strain rate, the piv, and the discrete memory parameters
The Common Factor of Bilateral U.S. Exchange Rates: What is it Related to?

OpenAIRE

Ponomareva, Natalia; Sheen, Jeffrey; Wang, Ben

2015-01-01

We identify a common factor driving a panel of fifteen monthly bilateral exchange rates against the U.S. dollar. We find this factor is closely related to U.S. nominal and real macroeconomic variables, financial market variables and commodity prices. Our results suggest this common factor is broadly related to the macroeconomic fundamentals in the Taylor rule and uncovered interest parity models. However, the set of fundamentals relevant to these models changes over time.
Polynomial Chaos Expansion Approach to Interest Rate Models

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Luca Di Persio

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE technique allows us to recover a finite second-order random variable exploiting suitable linear combinations of orthogonal polynomials which are functions of a given stochastic quantity ξ, hence acting as a kind of random basis. The PCE methodology has been developed as a mathematically rigorous Uncertainty Quantification (UQ method which aims at providing reliable numerical estimates for some uncertain physical quantities defining the dynamic of certain engineering models and their related simulations. In the present paper, we use the PCE approach in order to analyze some equity and interest rate models. In particular, we take into consideration those models which are based on, for example, the Geometric Brownian Motion, the Vasicek model, and the CIR model. We present theoretical as well as related concrete numerical approximation results considering, without loss of generality, the one-dimensional case. We also provide both an efficiency study and an accuracy study of our approach by comparing its outputs with the ones obtained adopting the Monte Carlo approach, both in its standard and its enhanced version.
Oral health-related quality of life in youth receiving cleft-related surgery: self-report and proxy ratings.

Science.gov (United States)

Broder, Hillary L; Wilson-Genderson, Maureen; Sischo, Lacey

2017-04-01

This paper evaluated the impact of cleft-related surgery on the oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) of youth with cleft over time. Data were derived from a 5-year, multi-center, prospective, longitudinal study of 1196 youth with cleft lip and/or palate and their caregivers. Eligible youth were between 7.5 and 18.5 years old, spoke English or Spanish, and were non-syndromic. During each observational period, which included baseline, and 1- and 2-year post-baseline follow-up visits, youths and their caregivers completed the Child Oral Health Impact Profile, a validated measure of OHRQoL. Multilevel mixed-effects models were used to analyze the effects of receipt of craniofacial surgery on OHRQoL over time. During the course of this study a total of 516 patients (43 %) received at least one surgery. Youth in the surgery recommendation group had lower self- (β = -2.18, p self- and proxy-rated OHRQoL at baseline. Both surgical and non-surgical youth (β = 3.73, p self-reported OHRQoL for youth postsurgery (β = 1.04, p self- and caregiver-rated OHRQoL when compared to non-surgical youth. Youth who underwent cleft-related surgery had significant incremental improvements in self-rated but not caregiver (proxy)-rated OHRQoL after surgery.
Influence of helium generation rate and temperature history on mechanical properties of model Fe-Cr-Ni alloys irradiated in FFTF at relatively low displacement rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, M.L.; Garner, F.A.; Edwards, D.J.

1993-01-01

In agreement with earlier studies conducted at higher displacement rates, evolution of mechanical properties of model Fe-Cr-Ni alloys irradiated at lower displacement rates in the 59 Ni isotopic doping experiment does not appear to be strongly affected by large differences in helium generation rate. This insensitivity to helium/dpa ratio is exhibited during both isothermal and non-isothermal irradiation. The overall behavior of the model alloys used in this study is dominated by the tendency to converge to a saturation strength level that is independent of thermomechanical starting state and helium/dpa ratio, but which is dependent on irradiation temperature and alloy composition

Dependence of the firearm-related homicide rate on gun availability: a mathematical analysis.

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Dominik Wodarz

Full Text Available In the USA, the relationship between the legal availability of guns and the firearm-related homicide rate has been debated. It has been argued that unrestricted gun availability promotes the occurrence of firearm-induced homicides. It has also been pointed out that gun possession can protect potential victims when attacked. This paper provides a first mathematical analysis of this tradeoff, with the goal to steer the debate towards arguing about assumptions, statistics, and scientific methods. The model is based on a set of clearly defined assumptions, which are supported by available statistical data, and is formulated axiomatically such that results do not depend on arbitrary mathematical expressions. According to this framework, two alternative scenarios can minimize the gun-related homicide rate: a ban of private firearms possession, or a policy allowing the general population to carry guns. Importantly, the model identifies the crucial parameters that determine which policy minimizes the death rate, and thus serves as a guide for the design of future epidemiological studies. The parameters that need to be measured include the fraction of offenders that illegally possess a gun, the degree of protection provided by gun ownership, and the fraction of the population who take up their right to own a gun and carry it when attacked. Limited data available in the literature were used to demonstrate how the model can be parameterized, and this preliminary analysis suggests that a ban of private firearm possession, or possibly a partial reduction in gun availability, might lower the rate of firearm-induced homicides. This, however, should not be seen as a policy recommendation, due to the limited data available to inform and parameterize the model. However, the model clearly defines what needs to be measured, and provides a basis for a scientific discussion about assumptions and data.
Dependence of the firearm-related homicide rate on gun availability: a mathematical analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wodarz, Dominik; Komarova, Natalia L

2013-01-01

In the USA, the relationship between the legal availability of guns and the firearm-related homicide rate has been debated. It has been argued that unrestricted gun availability promotes the occurrence of firearm-induced homicides. It has also been pointed out that gun possession can protect potential victims when attacked. This paper provides a first mathematical analysis of this tradeoff, with the goal to steer the debate towards arguing about assumptions, statistics, and scientific methods. The model is based on a set of clearly defined assumptions, which are supported by available statistical data, and is formulated axiomatically such that results do not depend on arbitrary mathematical expressions. According to this framework, two alternative scenarios can minimize the gun-related homicide rate: a ban of private firearms possession, or a policy allowing the general population to carry guns. Importantly, the model identifies the crucial parameters that determine which policy minimizes the death rate, and thus serves as a guide for the design of future epidemiological studies. The parameters that need to be measured include the fraction of offenders that illegally possess a gun, the degree of protection provided by gun ownership, and the fraction of the population who take up their right to own a gun and carry it when attacked. Limited data available in the literature were used to demonstrate how the model can be parameterized, and this preliminary analysis suggests that a ban of private firearm possession, or possibly a partial reduction in gun availability, might lower the rate of firearm-induced homicides. This, however, should not be seen as a policy recommendation, due to the limited data available to inform and parameterize the model. However, the model clearly defines what needs to be measured, and provides a basis for a scientific discussion about assumptions and data.
Essays on financial econometrics : modeling the term structure of interest rates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouwman, Kees Evert

2008-01-01

This dissertation bundles five studies in financial econometrics that are related to the theme of modeling the term structure of interest rates. The main contribution of this dissertation is a new arbitrage-free term structure model that is applied in an empirical analysis of the US term structure.
The Relation Between Plate Spreading Rate, Crustal Thickness and Axial Relief at Mid-Ocean Ridges

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Z.; Buck, W. R.

2017-12-01

Variations in axial valley relief and in faulting at plate spreading centers are clearly related to magma supply and axial lithospheric structure. Previous models that consider the interaction of magmatic dikes with lithospheric stretching do not successfully reproduce both of these trends. We present the first model that reproduces these trends by making simple assumptions about the partitioning of magma between dikes, gabbros and extrusives. A key concept is that dikes open not only in the brittle axial lithosphere but also into the underlying ductile crust, where they cool to form gabbro. The amount of gabbro so intruded depends on magma pressure that is related to axial relief. The deeper the valley the less magma goes into gabbros and the more magma is available for dikes to accommodate plate separation. We define the fraction of plate separation rate accommodated by dikes as M. If Mreasonable. Finally, we describe themo-mechanical models that allow us to relate plate spreading rate and crustal thickness and to axial valley depth.
ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

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Josip Arnerić

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.
Inverse modelling of radionuclide release rates using gamma dose rate observations

Science.gov (United States)

Hamburger, Thomas; Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Stohl, Andreas; von Haustein, Christoph; Thummerer, Severin; Wallner, Christian

2015-04-01

Severe accidents in nuclear power plants such as the historical accident in Chernobyl 1986 or the more recent disaster in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have drastic impacts on the population and environment. Observations and dispersion modelling of the released radionuclides help to assess the regional impact of such nuclear accidents. Modelling the increase of regional radionuclide activity concentrations, which results from nuclear accidents, underlies a multiplicity of uncertainties. One of the most significant uncertainties is the estimation of the source term. That is, the time dependent quantification of the released spectrum of radionuclides during the course of the nuclear accident. The quantification of the source term may either remain uncertain (e.g. Chernobyl, Devell et al., 1995) or rely on estimates given by the operators of the nuclear power plant. Precise measurements are mostly missing due to practical limitations during the accident. The release rates of radionuclides at the accident site can be estimated using inverse modelling (Davoine and Bocquet, 2007). The accuracy of the method depends amongst others on the availability, reliability and the resolution in time and space of the used observations. Radionuclide activity concentrations are observed on a relatively sparse grid and the temporal resolution of available data may be low within the order of hours or a day. Gamma dose rates, on the other hand, are observed routinely on a much denser grid and higher temporal resolution and provide therefore a wider basis for inverse modelling (Saunier et al., 2013). We present a new inversion approach, which combines an atmospheric dispersion model and observations of radionuclide activity concentrations and gamma dose rates to obtain the source term of radionuclides. We use the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART (Stohl et al., 1998; Stohl et al., 2005) to model the atmospheric transport of the released radionuclides. The
CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, James H., Jr.

2012-01-01

Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and
A model for rate-dependent but time-independent material behavior in cyclic plasticity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dafalias, Y.F.; Ramey, M.R.; Sheikh, I.

1977-01-01

This paper presents a model for rate-dependent but time independent material behavior under cyclic loading in the plastic range. What is referred to as time independent behavior here, is the absence of creep and relaxation phenomena from the behavior of the model. The notion of plastic internal variables (piv) is introduced, as properly invariant scalars or second order tensors, whose constitutive relations are rate-type equations not necessarily homogeneous of order one in the rates, as it would be required for independent plasticity. The concept of a yield surface in the strain space and a loading function in terms of the total strain rate is introduced, where the sign of the loading function defines zero or non-zero value of the rate of piv. Thus rate dependence is achieved without time dependent behaviour (no creep or relaxation). In addition, discrete memory parameters associated with the most recent event of unloading-reloading in different directions enter the constitutive relations for the piv. (Auth.)
The relations between personality traits and psychopathy as measured by ratings and self-report

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kujačić Daliborka

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to examine the relations between psychopathy - as assessed by ratings (PCL-R and by self-report (SRP3 - on one side, and The Five-Factor personality Model - expanded to include the traits Amorality and Disintegration - on the other. Both methods examined four traits of psychopathy: interpersonal, affective, lifestyle and antisocial characteristics. Data were collected on a sample of 112 male convicts. The results show the absence of congruence between the two methods - self-report and rating - in case of interpersonal and affective psychopathic dispositions. This incongruence is also reflected in their relations with personality traits. The self-report measures and the ratings of Lifestyle and Antisocial tendencies are related to amorality, aggressiveness, schizotypy, Neuroticism and impulsivity. However, the ratings of affective and interpersonal style are related to the integrated, organized, and emotionally stable aspects of personality. The results are interpreted in the light of differences between the methods of assessment and in the light of the essential characteristics of the psychopathic phenomena.
A Numerical Study of Water Loss Rate Distributions in MDCT-based Human Airway Models

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Dan; Miyawaki, Shinjiro; Tawhai, Merryn H.; Hoffman, Eric A.; Lin, Ching-Long

2015-01-01

Both three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods are applied to study regional water loss in three multi-detector row computed-tomography (MDCT)-based human airway models at the minute ventilations of 6, 15 and 30 L/min. The overall water losses predicted by both 3D and 1D models in the entire respiratory tract agree with available experimental measurements. However, 3D and 1D models reveal different regional water loss rate distributions due to the 3D secondary flows formed at bifurcations. The secondary flows cause local skewed temperature and humidity distributions on inspiration acting to elevate the local water loss rate; and the secondary flow at the carina tends to distribute more cold air to the lower lobes. As a result, the 3D model predicts that the water loss rate first increases with increasing airway generation, and then decreases as the air approaches saturation, while the 1D model predicts a monotonic decrease of water loss rate with increasing airway generation. Moreover, the 3D (or 1D) model predicts relatively higher water loss rates in lower (or upper) lobes. The regional water loss rate can be related to the non-dimensional wall shear stress (τ*) by the non-dimensional mass transfer coefficient (h0*) as h0* = 1.15 τ*0.272, R = 0.842. PMID:25869455
Aspect-Aware Latent Factor Model: Rating Prediction with Ratings and Reviews

OpenAIRE

Cheng, Zhiyong; Ding, Ying; Zhu, Lei; Kankanhalli, Mohan

2018-01-01

Although latent factor models (e.g., matrix factorization) achieve good accuracy in rating prediction, they suffer from several problems including cold-start, non-transparency, and suboptimal recommendation for local users or items. In this paper, we employ textual review information with ratings to tackle these limitations. Firstly, we apply a proposed aspect-aware topic model (ATM) on the review text to model user preferences and item features from different aspects, and estimate the aspect...
Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kouwenberg, R.; Markiewicz, A.; Verhoeks, R.; Zwinkels, R.C.J.

2017-01-01

Exchange rate models with uncertain and incomplete information predict that investors focus on a small set of fundamentals that changes frequently over time. We design a model selection rule that captures the current set of fundamentals that best predicts the exchange rate. Out-of-sample tests show
On a Corporate Bond Pricing Model with Credit Rating Migration Risksand Stochastic Interest Rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jin Liang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In this paper we study a corporate bond-pricing model with credit rating migration and astochastic interest rate. The volatility of bond price in the model strongly depends on potential creditrating migration and stochastic change of the interest rate. This new model improves the previousexisting models in which the interest rate is considered to be a constant. The existence, uniquenessand regularity of the solution for the model are established. Moreover, some properties includingthe smoothness of the free boundary are obtained. Furthermore, some numerical computations arepresented to illustrate the theoretical results.
Connecting Related Rates and Differential Equations

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, Keith

2012-01-01

This article points out a simple connection between related rates and differential equations. The connection can be used for in-class examples or homework exercises, and it is accessible to students who are familiar with separation of variables.
Modelling hourly rates of evaporation from small lakes

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R. J. Granger

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the results of a field study of open water evaporation carried out on three small lakes in Western and Northern Canada. In this case small lakes are defined as those for which the temperature above the water surface is governed by the upwind land surface conditions; that is, a continuous boundary layer exists over the lake, and large-scale atmospheric effects such as entrainment do not come into play. Lake evaporation was measured directly using eddy covariance equipment; profiles of wind speed, air temperature and humidity were also obtained over the water surfaces. Observations were made as well over the upwind land surface.

The major factors controlling open water evaporation were examined. The study showed that for time periods shorter than daily, the open water evaporation bears no relationship to the net radiation; the wind speed is the most significant factor governing the evaporation rates, followed by the land-water temperature contrast and the land-water vapour pressure contrast. The effect of the stability on the wind field was demonstrated; relationships were developed relating the land-water wind speed contrast to the land-water temperature contrast. The open water period can be separated into two distinct evaporative regimes: the warming period in the Spring, when the land is warmer than the water, the turbulent fluxes over water are suppressed; and the cooling period, when the water is warmer than the land, the turbulent fluxes over water are enhanced.

Relationships were developed between the hourly rates of lake evaporation and the following significant variables and parameters (wind speed, land-lake temperature and humidity contrasts, and the downwind distance from shore. The result is a relatively simple versatile model for estimating the hourly lake evaporation rates. The model was tested using two independent data sets. Results show that the modelled evaporation follows the observed values
Modelling of tomato stem diameter growth rate based on physiological responses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, L.; Tan, J.; Lv, T.

2017-01-01

The stem diameter is an important parameter describing the growth of tomato plant during vegetative growth stage. A stem diameter growth model was developed to predict the response of plant growth under different conditions. By analyzing the diurnal variations of stem diameter in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.), it was found that the stem diameter measured at 3:00 am was the representative value as the daily basis of tomato stem diameter. Based on the responses of growth rate in stem diameter to light and temperature, a linear regression relationship was applied to establish the stem diameter growth rate prediction model for the vegetative growth stage in tomato and which was further validated by experiment. The root mean square error (RMSE) and relative error (RE) were used to test the correlation between measured and modeled stem diameter variations. Results showed that the model can be used in prediction for stem diameter growth rate at vegetative growth stage in tomato. (author)
Sensitivity of the polypropylene to the strain rate: experiments and modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdul-Latif, A.; Aboura, Z.; Mosleh, L.

2002-01-01

Full text.The main goal of this work is first to evaluate experimentally the strain rate dependent deformation of the polypropylene under tensile load; and secondly is to propose a model capable to appropriately describe the mechanical behavior of this material and especially its sensitivity to the strain rate. Several experimental tensile tests are performed at different quasi-static strain rates in the range of 10 -5 s -1 to 10 -1 s -1 . In addition to some relaxation tests are also conducted introducing the strain rate jumping state during testing. Within the framework of elastoviscoplasticity, a phenomenological model is developed for describing the non-linear mechanical behavior of the material under uniaxial loading paths. With the small strain assumption, the sensitivity of the polypropylene to the strain rate being of particular interest in this work, is accordingly taken into account. As a matter of fact, since this model is based on internal state variables, we assume thus that the material sensitivity to the strain rate is governed by the kinematic hardening variable notably its modulus and the accumulated viscoplastic strain. As far as the elastic behavior is concerned, it is noticed that such a behavior is slightly influenced by the employed strain rate rage. For this reason, the elastic behavior is classically determined, i.e. without coupling with the strain rate dependent deformation. It is obvious that the inelastic behavior of the used material is thoroughly dictated by the applied strain rate. Hence, the model parameters are well calibrated utilizing several experimental databases for different strain rates (10 -5 s -1 to 10 -1 s -1 ). Actually, among these experimental results, some experiments related to the relaxation phenomenon and strain rate jumping during testing (increasing or decreasing) are also used in order to more perfect the model parameters identification. To validate the calibrated model parameters, simulation tests are achieved
Male sexual strategies modify ratings of female models with specific waist-to-hip ratios.

Science.gov (United States)

Brase, Gary L; Walker, Gary

2004-06-01

Female waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) has generally been an important general predictor of ratings of physical attractiveness and related characteristics. Individual differences in ratings do exist, however, and may be related to differences in the reproductive tactics of the male raters such as pursuit of short-term or long-term relationships and adjustments based on perceptions of one's own quality as a mate. Forty males, categorized according to sociosexual orientation and physical qualities (WHR, Body Mass Index, and self-rated desirability), rated female models on both attractiveness and likelihood they would approach them. Sociosexually restricted males were less likely to approach females rated as most attractive (with 0.68-0.72 WHR), as compared with unrestricted males. Males with lower scores in terms of physical qualities gave ratings indicating more favorable evaluations of female models with lower WHR. The results indicate that attractiveness and willingness to approach are overlapping but distinguishable constructs, both of which are influenced by variations in characteristics of the raters.
On the Relation between Tax Rates and Evasion in a Multi-period Economy

OpenAIRE

Jordi Caball?Author-Email:; Judith Panad?

2001-01-01

We extend the basic tax evasion model to a multi-period economy exhibiting sustained growth. When individuals conceal part of their true income from the tax authority, they face the risk of being audited and hence of paying the corresponding fine. Both taxes and fines determine individual saving and the rate of capital accumulation. In this context we show that the sign of the relation between the level of the tax rate and the amount of evaded income is the same as that obtained in static set...
On the relation between tax rates and evasion in a multi-period economy

OpenAIRE

Caballé, Jordi

2006-01-01

We extend the basic tax evasion model to a multi-period economy exhibiting sustained growth. When individuals conceal part of their true income from the tax authority, they face the risk of being audited and hence of paying the corresponding fine. Both taxes and fines determine individual saving and the rate of capital accumulation. In this context we show that the sign of the relation between the level of the tax rate and the amount of evaded income is the same as that obtained in static set...

Leaching of radionuclides from decaying blueberry leaves: Relative rate independent of concentration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sheppard, S.C.; Evenden, W.G. (Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., Pinawa, Manitoba (Canada))

Leaching of radionuclides from decaying vegetation has not been extensively investigated, especially for radionuclides other than {sup 137}Cs. The authors obtained leaves of blueberry (Vaccinium angustifolium {times} V. corymbosum) that contained over 25-fold ranges in Se, Cs, and I concentrations, as well as a small quantity of leaves containing detectable U. All were contaminated by way of root uptake. Leaching took place for a period of 1 yr in the laboratory, using leach water from forest litter. Monthly, measurements were made of the radionuclide contents and decaying leaf dry weights. The data conformed to an exponential decay model with two first-order components. In no case did the relative loss rates vary systematically with the initial tissue radionuclide concentrations. Loss rates decreased in the order Cs > I > U > dry wt. > Se. Because of the low leaching rate of Se relative to the loss of dry weight, decaying litter may actually accumulate elements such as Se. Accumulation of radionuclides in litter could have important implications for lateral transport, recycling, and direct incorporation into edible mushrooms.
Leaching of radionuclides from decaying blueberry leaves: Relative rate independent of concentration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheppard, S.C.; Evenden, W.G.

1990-01-01

Leaching of radionuclides from decaying vegetation has not been extensively investigated, especially for radionuclides other than 137 Cs. The authors obtained leaves of blueberry (Vaccinium angustifolium x V. corymbosum) that contained over 25-fold ranges in Se, Cs, and I concentrations, as well as a small quantity of leaves containing detectable U. All were contaminated by way of root uptake. Leaching took place for a period of 1 yr in the laboratory, using leach water from forest litter. Monthly, measurements were made of the radionuclide contents and decaying leaf dry weights. The data conformed to an exponential decay model with two first-order components. In no case did the relative loss rates vary systematically with the initial tissue radionuclide concentrations. Loss rates decreased in the order Cs > I > U > dry wt. > Se. Because of the low leaching rate of Se relative to the loss of dry weight, decaying litter may actually accumulate elements such as Se. Accumulation of radionuclides in litter could have important implications for lateral transport, recycling, and direct incorporation into edible mushrooms
The mass-metallicity-star formation rate relation under the STARLIGHT microscope

Science.gov (United States)

Schlickmann, M.; Vale Asari, N.; Cid Fernandes, R.; Stasińska, G.

2014-10-01

The correlation between stellar mass and gas-phase oxygen abundance (M-Z relation) has been known for decades. The slope and scatter of this trend is strongly dependent on galaxy evolution: Chemical enrichment in a galaxy is driven by its star formation history, which in turn depends on its secular evolution and interaction with other galaxies and intergalactic gas. In last couple of years, the M-Z relation has been studied as a function of a third parameter: the recent star formation rate (SFR) as calibrated by the Hα luminosity, which traces stars formed in the last 10 Myr. This mass-metallicity-SFR relation has been reported to be very tight. This result puts strong constraints on galaxy evolution models in low and high redshifts, informing which models of infall and outflow of gas are acceptable. We explore the mass-metallicity-SFR relation in light of the SDSS-STARLIGHT database put together by our group. We find that we recover similar results as the ones reported by authors who use the MPA/JHU catalogue. We also present some preliminary results exploring the mass-metallicity-SFR relation in a more detailed fashion: starlight recovers a galaxy's full star formation history, and not only its recent SFR.
Strain Rate Dependant Material Model for Orthotropic Metals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vignjevic, Rade

2016-01-01

In manufacturing processes anisotropic metals are often exposed to the loading with high strain rates in the range from 10"2 s"-"1 to 10"6 s"-"1 (e.g. stamping, cold spraying and explosive forming). These types of loading often involve generation and propagation of shock waves within the material. The material behaviour under such a complex loading needs to be accurately modelled, in order to optimise the manufacturing process and achieve appropriate properties of the manufactured component. The presented research is related to development and validation of a thermodynamically consistent physically based constitutive model for metals under high rate loading. The model is capable of modelling damage, failure and formation and propagation of shock waves in anisotropic metals. The model has two main parts: the strength part which defines the material response to shear deformation and an equation of state (EOS) which defines the material response to isotropic volumetric deformation [1]. The constitutive model was implemented into the transient nonlinear finite element code DYNA3D [2] and our in house SPH code. Limited model validation was performed by simulating a number of high velocity material characterisation and validation impact tests. The new damage model was developed in the framework of configurational continuum mechanics and irreversible thermodynamics with internal state variables. The use of the multiplicative decomposition of deformation gradient makes the model applicable to arbitrary plastic and damage deformations. To account for the physical mechanisms of failure, the concept of thermally activated damage initially proposed by Tuller and Bucher [3], Klepaczko [4] was adopted as the basis for the new damage evolution model. This makes the proposed damage/failure model compatible with the Mechanical Threshold Strength (MTS) model Follansbee and Kocks [5], 1988; Chen and Gray [6] which was used to control evolution of flow stress during plastic
Neural Networks Modelling of Municipal Real Estate Market Rent Rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muczyński Andrzej

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the results of research on the application of neural networks modelling of municipal real estate market rent rates. The test procedure was based on selected networks trained on the local real estate market data and transformation of the detected dependencies – through established models – to estimate the potential market rent rates of municipal premises. On this basis, the assessment of the adequacy of the actual market rent rates of municipal properties was made. Empirical research was conducted on the local real estate market of the city of Olsztyn in Poland. In order to describe the phenomenon of market rent rates formation an unidirectional three-layer network and a network of radial base was selected. Analyses showed a relatively low degree of convergence of the actual municipal rent rents with potential market rent rates. This degree was strongly varied depending on the type of business ran on the property and its’ social and economic impact. The applied research methodology and the obtained results can be used in order to rationalize municipal property management, including the activation of rental policy.
General extrapolation model for an important chemical dose-rate effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gillen, K.T.; Clough, R.L.

1984-12-01

In order to extrapolate material accelerated aging data, methodologies must be developed based on sufficient understanding of the processes leading to material degradation. One of the most important mechanisms leading to chemical dose-rate effects in polymers involves the breakdown of intermediate hydroperoxide species. A general model for this mechanism is derived based on the underlying chemical steps. The results lead to a general formalism for understanding dose rate and sequential aging effects when hydroperoxide breakdown is important. We apply the model to combined radiation/temperature aging data for a PVC material and show that this data is consistent with the model and that model extrapolations are in excellent agreement with 12-year real-time aging results from an actual nuclear plant. This model and other techniques discussed in this report can aid in the selection of appropriate accelerated aging methods and can also be used to compare and select materials for use in safety-related components. This will result in increased assurance that equipment qualification procedures are adequate
Further Results on Dynamic Additive Hazard Rate Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhengcheng Zhang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the past, the proportional and additive hazard rate models have been investigated in the works. Nanda and Das (2011 introduced and studied the dynamic proportional (reversed hazard rate model. In this paper we study the dynamic additive hazard rate model, and investigate its aging properties for different aging classes. The closure of the model under some stochastic orders has also been investigated. Some examples are also given to illustrate different aging properties and stochastic comparisons of the model.
Mechanistic Modeling of Water Replenishment Rate of Zeer Refrigerator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. N. Nwankwojike

2017-06-01

Full Text Available A model for predicting the water replenishment rate of zeer pot refrigerator was developed in this study using mechanistic modeling approach and evaluated at Obowo, Imo State, Nigeria using six fruits, tomatoes, guava, okra, banana, orange and avocado pear. The developed model confirmed zeer pot water replenishment rate as a function of ambient temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, thermal conductivity of the pot materials and sand, density of air and water vapor, permeability coefficient of clay and heat transfer coefficient of water into air, circumferential length, height of pot, geometrical profile of the pot, heat load of the food preserved, heat flow into the device and gradient at which the pot is placed above ground level. Compared to the conventional approach of water replenishment, performance analysis results revealed 44% to 58% water economy when the zeer pot’s water was replenished based on the model’s prediction; while there was no significant difference in the shelf-life of the fruits preserved with both replenishment methods. Application of the developed water replenishment model facilitates optimal water usage in this system, thereby reducing operational cost of zeer pot refrigerator.
Hawkes process model with a time-dependent background rate and its application to high-frequency financial data

Science.gov (United States)

Omi, Takahiro; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2017-07-01

A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of variable-width basis functions, and the parameters are estimated by a Bayesian method. Our model can capture not only the slow time variation, such as in the intraday seasonality, but also the rapid one, which follows a macroeconomic news announcement. By analyzing the tick data of the Nikkei 225 mini, we find that (i) our model is better fitted to the data than the Hawkes models with a constant background rate or a slowly varying background rate, which have been commonly used in the field of quantitative finance; (ii) the improvement in the goodness-of-fit to the data by our model is significant especially for sessions where considerable fluctuation of the background rate is present; and (iii) our model is statistically consistent with the data. The branching ratio, which quantifies the level of the endogeneity of markets, estimated by our model is 0.41, suggesting the relative importance of exogenous factors in the market dynamics. We also demonstrate that it is critically important to appropriately model the time-dependent background rate for the branching ratio estimation.
Hawkes process model with a time-dependent background rate and its application to high-frequency financial data.

Science.gov (United States)

Omi, Takahiro; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2017-07-01

A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of variable-width basis functions, and the parameters are estimated by a Bayesian method. Our model can capture not only the slow time variation, such as in the intraday seasonality, but also the rapid one, which follows a macroeconomic news announcement. By analyzing the tick data of the Nikkei 225 mini, we find that (i) our model is better fitted to the data than the Hawkes models with a constant background rate or a slowly varying background rate, which have been commonly used in the field of quantitative finance; (ii) the improvement in the goodness-of-fit to the data by our model is significant especially for sessions where considerable fluctuation of the background rate is present; and (iii) our model is statistically consistent with the data. The branching ratio, which quantifies the level of the endogeneity of markets, estimated by our model is 0.41, suggesting the relative importance of exogenous factors in the market dynamics. We also demonstrate that it is critically important to appropriately model the time-dependent background rate for the branching ratio estimation.
Evolution of cultural traits occurs at similar relative rates in different world regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Currie, Thomas E; Mace, Ruth

2014-11-22

A fundamental issue in understanding human diversity is whether or not there are regular patterns and processes involved in cultural change. Theoretical and mathematical models of cultural evolution have been developed and are increasingly being used and assessed in empirical analyses. Here, we test the hypothesis that the rates of change of features of human socio-cultural organization are governed by general rules. One prediction of this hypothesis is that different cultural traits will tend to evolve at similar relative rates in different world regions, despite the unique historical backgrounds of groups inhabiting these regions. We used phylogenetic comparative methods and systematic cross-cultural data to assess how different socio-cultural traits changed in (i) island southeast Asia and the Pacific, and (ii) sub-Saharan Africa. The relative rates of change in these two regions are significantly correlated. Furthermore, cultural traits that are more directly related to external environmental conditions evolve more slowly than traits related to social structures. This is consistent with the idea that a form of purifying selection is acting with greater strength on these more environmentally linked traits. These results suggest that despite contingent historical events and the role of humans as active agents in the historical process, culture does indeed evolve in ways that can be predicted from general principles.
Modeling the cosmic-ray-induced soft-error rate in integrated circuits: An overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Srinivasan, G.R.

1996-01-01

This paper is an overview of the concepts and methodologies used to predict soft-error rates (SER) due to cosmic and high-energy particle radiation in integrated circuit chips. The paper emphasizes the need for the SER simulation using the actual chip circuit model which includes device, process, and technology parameters as opposed to using either the discrete device simulation or generic circuit simulation that is commonly employed in SER modeling. Concepts such as funneling, event-by-event simulation, nuclear history files, critical charge, and charge sharing are examined. Also discussed are the relative importance of elastic and inelastic nuclear collisions, rare event statistics, and device vs. circuit simulations. The semi-empirical methodologies used in the aerospace community to arrive at SERs [also referred to as single-event upset (SEU) rates] in integrated circuit chips are reviewed. This paper is one of four in this special issue relating to SER modeling. Together, they provide a comprehensive account of this modeling effort, which has resulted in a unique modeling tool called the Soft-Error Monte Carlo Model, or SEMM
Modeling Real Exchange Rate Persistence in Chile

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leonardo Salazar

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The long and persistent swings in the real exchange rate have for a long time puzzled economists. Recent models built on imperfect knowledge economics seem to provide a theoretical explanation for this persistence. Empirical results, based on a cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR model, provide evidence of error-increasing behavior in prices and interest rates, which is consistent with the persistence observed in the data. The movements in the real exchange rate are compensated by movements in the interest rate spread, which restores the equilibrium in the product market when the real exchange rate moves away from its long-run benchmark value. Fluctuations in the copper price also explain the deviations of the real exchange rate from its long-run equilibrium value.
Prediction of PWSCC in nickel base alloys using crack growth rate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, C.D.

1995-01-01

The Ford/Andresen slip dissolution SCC model, originally developed for stainless steel components in BWR environments, has been applied to Alloy 600 and Alloy X-750 tested in deaerated pure water chemistry. A method is described whereby the crack growth rates measured in compact tension specimens can be used to estimate crack growth in a component. Good agreement was found between model prediction and measured SCC in X-750 threaded fasteners over a wide range of temperatures, stresses, and material condition. Most data support the basic assumption of this model that cracks initiate early in life. The evidence supporting a particular SCC mechanism is mixed. Electrochemical repassivation data and estimates of oxide fracture strain indicate that the slip dissolution model can account for the observed crack growth rates, provided primary rather than secondary creep rates are used. However, approximately 100 cross-sectional TEM foils of SCC cracks including crack tips reveal no evidence of enhanced plasticity or unique dislocation patterns at the crack tip or along the crack to support a classic slip dissolution mechanism. No voids, hydrides,, or microcracks are found in the vicinity of the crack tips creating doubt about classic hydrogen related mechanisms. The bulk oxide films exhibit a surface oxide which is often different than the oxide found within a crack. Although bulk chromium concentration affects the rate of SCC, analytical data indicates the mechanism does not result from chromium depletion at the grain boundaries. The overall findings support a corrosion/dissolution mechanism but not one necessarily related to slip at the crack tip. (author). 12 refs, 27 figs
Sovereign ratings in the post-crisis world : an analysis of actual, shadow and relative risk ratings

OpenAIRE

Basu, Kaushik; De, Supriyo; Ratha, Dilip; Timmer, Hans

2013-01-01

This paper analyzes the evolution of sovereign credit ratings in the wake of the global financial crisis by studying changes in actual, shadow, and relative ratings between 2008 and 2012. For countries that do not have a rating from the major rating agencies, shadow ratings are estimated as a function of macroeconomic, structural, and governance variables. The shadow rating exercise confir...
Models as Relational Categories

Science.gov (United States)

Kokkonen, Tommi

2017-11-01

Model-based learning (MBL) has an established position within science education. It has been found to enhance conceptual understanding and provide a way for engaging students in authentic scientific activity. Despite ample research, few studies have examined the cognitive processes regarding learning scientific concepts within MBL. On the other hand, recent research within cognitive science has examined the learning of so-called relational categories. Relational categories are categories whose membership is determined on the basis of the common relational structure. In this theoretical paper, I argue that viewing models as relational categories provides a well-motivated cognitive basis for MBL. I discuss the different roles of models and modeling within MBL (using ready-made models, constructive modeling, and generative modeling) and discern the related cognitive aspects brought forward by the reinterpretation of models as relational categories. I will argue that relational knowledge is vital in learning novel models and in the transfer of learning. Moreover, relational knowledge underlies the coherent, hierarchical knowledge of experts. Lastly, I will examine how the format of external representations may affect the learning of models and the relevant relations. The nature of the learning mechanisms underlying students' mental representations of models is an interesting open question to be examined. Furthermore, the ways in which the expert-like knowledge develops and how to best support it is in need of more research. The discussion and conceptualization of models as relational categories allows discerning students' mental representations of models in terms of evolving relational structures in greater detail than previously done.
Equivalence of interest rate models and lattice gases.

Science.gov (United States)

Pirjol, Dan

2012-04-01

We consider the class of short rate interest rate models for which the short rate is proportional to the exponential of a Gaussian Markov process x(t) in the terminal measure r(t)=a(t)exp[x(t)]. These models include the Black-Derman-Toy and Black-Karasinski models in the terminal measure. We show that such interest rate models are equivalent to lattice gases with attractive two-body interaction, V(t(1),t(2))=-Cov[x(t(1)),x(t(2))]. We consider in some detail the Black-Karasinski model with x(t) as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and show that it is similar to a lattice gas model considered by Kac and Helfand, with attractive long-range two-body interactions, V(x,y)=-α(e(-γ|x-y|)-e(-γ(x+y))). An explicit solution for the model is given as a sum over the states of the lattice gas, which is used to show that the model has a phase transition similar to that found previously in the Black-Derman-Toy model in the terminal measure.
Forecasting the mortality rates using Lee-Carter model and Heligman-Pollard model

Science.gov (United States)

Ibrahim, R. I.; Ngataman, N.; Abrisam, W. N. A. Wan Mohd

2017-09-01

Improvement in life expectancies has driven further declines in mortality. The sustained reduction in mortality rates and its systematic underestimation has been attracting the significant interest of researchers in recent years because of its potential impact on population size and structure, social security systems, and (from an actuarial perspective) the life insurance and pensions industry worldwide. Among all forecasting methods, the Lee-Carter model has been widely accepted by the actuarial community and Heligman-Pollard model has been widely used by researchers in modelling and forecasting future mortality. Therefore, this paper only focuses on Lee-Carter model and Heligman-Pollard model. The main objective of this paper is to investigate how accurately these two models will perform using Malaysian data. Since these models involves nonlinear equations that are explicitly difficult to solve, the Matrix Laboratory Version 8.0 (MATLAB 8.0) software will be used to estimate the parameters of the models. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) procedure is applied to acquire the forecasted parameters for both models as the forecasted mortality rates are obtained by using all the values of forecasted parameters. To investigate the accuracy of the estimation, the forecasted results will be compared against actual data of mortality rates. The results indicate that both models provide better results for male population. However, for the elderly female population, Heligman-Pollard model seems to underestimate to the mortality rates while Lee-Carter model seems to overestimate to the mortality rates.
An Econometric Diffusion Model of Exchange Rate Movements within a Band - Implications for Interest Rate Differential and Credibility of Exchange Rate Policy

OpenAIRE

Rantala, Olavi

1992-01-01

The paper presents a model ofexchange rate movements within a specified exchange rate band enforced by central bank interventions. The model is based on the empirical observation that the exchange rate has usually been strictly inside the band, at least in Finland. In this model the distribution of the exchange rate is truncated lognormal from the edges towards the center of the band and hence quite different from the bimodal distribution of the standard target zone model. The model is estima...
[Decomposition model of energy-related carbon emissions in tertiary industry for China].

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Yuan-Qing; Shi, Jun

2012-07-01

Tertiary industry has been developed in recent years. And it is very important to find the factors influenced the energy-related carbon emissions in tertiary industry. A decomposition model of energy-related carbon emissions for China is set up by adopting logarithmic mean weight Divisia method based on the identity of carbon emissions. The model is adopted to analyze the influence of energy structure, energy efficiency, tertiary industry structure and economic output to energy-related carbon emissions in China from 2000 to 2009. Results show that the contribution rate of economic output and energy structure to energy-related carbon emissions increases year by year. Either is the contribution rate of energy efficiency or the tertiary industry restraining to energy-related carbon emissions. However, the restrain effect is weakening.

Prediction of pilot opinion ratings using an optimal pilot model. [of aircraft handling qualities in multiaxis tasks

Science.gov (United States)

Hess, R. A.

1977-01-01

A brief review of some of the more pertinent applications of analytical pilot models to the prediction of aircraft handling qualities is undertaken. The relative ease with which multiloop piloting tasks can be modeled via the optimal control formulation makes the use of optimal pilot models particularly attractive for handling qualities research. To this end, a rating hypothesis is introduced which relates the numerical pilot opinion rating assigned to a particular vehicle and task to the numerical value of the index of performance resulting from an optimal pilot modeling procedure as applied to that vehicle and task. This hypothesis is tested using data from piloted simulations and is shown to be reasonable. An example concerning a helicopter landing approach is introduced to outline the predictive capability of the rating hypothesis in multiaxis piloting tasks.
Related Rates and the Speed of Light.

Science.gov (United States)

Althoen, S. C.; Weidner, J. F.

1985-01-01

Standard calculus textbooks often include a related rates problem involving light cast onto a straight line by a revolving light source. Mathematical aspects to these problems (both in the solution and in the method by which that solution is obtained) are examined. (JN)
Multistate cohort models with proportional transfer rates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schoen, Robert; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir

2006-01-01

of transfer rates. The two living state case and hierarchical multistate models with any number of living states are analyzed in detail. Applying our approach to 1997 U.S. fertility data, we find that observed rates of parity progression are roughly proportional over age. Our proportional transfer rate...... approach provides trajectories by parity state and facilitates analyses of the implications of changes in parity rate levels and patterns. More women complete childbearing at parity 2 than at any other parity, and parity 2 would be the modal parity in models with total fertility rates (TFRs) of 1.40 to 2......We present a new, broadly applicable approach to summarizing the behavior of a cohort as it moves through a variety of statuses (or states). The approach is based on the assumption that all rates of transfer maintain a constant ratio to one another over age. We present closed-form expressions...
EWAM: a model for predicting food and water ingestion, and inhalation rates of man

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zach, Reto; Barnard, John W.

1985-09-01

A computer model, EWAM (Energy, Water and Air Model), has been designed and implemented for predicting food and water ingestion, and inhalation rates of man for use in environmental assessment models. EWAM uses physiological, energetic, nutritional and physical relationships in combination with activity time budgets, and mass and energy balances. The calculated ingestion and inhalation rates are closely related. Various age and sex classes of man are taken into account. EWAM is best described as a deterministic equilibrium or steady-state model, operating on a daily time-scale, with both detailed research and more general assessment model features. The parameters of EWAM are reviewed and suitable values recommended to allow biologically meaningful predictions
Mass gathering medicine: a predictive model for patient presentation and transport rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Arbon, P; Bridgewater, F H; Smith, C

2001-01-01

This paper reports on research into the influence of environmental factors (including crowd size, temperature, humidity, and venue type) on the number of patients and the patient problems presenting to first-aid services at large, public events in Australia. Regression models were developed to predict rates of patient presentation and of transportation-to-a-hospital for future mass gatherings. To develop a data set and predictive model that can be applied across venues and types of mass gathering events that is not venue or event specific. Data collected will allow informed event planning for future mass gatherings for which health care services are required. Mass gatherings were defined as public events attended by in excess of 25,000 people. Over a period of 12 months, 201 mass gatherings attended by a combined audience in excess of 12 million people were surveyed throughout Australia. The survey was undertaken by St. John Ambulance Australia personnel. The researchers collected data on the incidence and type of patients presenting for treatment and on the environmental factors that may influence these presentations. A standard reporting format and definition of event geography was employed to overcome the event-specific nature of many previous surveys. There are 11,956 patients in the sample. The patient presentation rate across all event types was 0.992/1,000 attendees, and the transportation-to-hospital rate was 0.027/1,000 persons in attendance. The rates of patient presentations declined slightly as crowd sizes increased. The weather (particularly the relative humidity) was related positively to an increase in the rates of presentations. Other factors that influenced the number and type of patients presenting were the mobility of the crowd, the availability of alcohol, the event being enclosed by a boundary, and the number of patient-care personnel on duty. Three regression models were developed to predict presentation rates at future events. Several
Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R.R.P. Kouwenberg (Roy); A. Markiewicz (Agnieszka); R. Verhoeks (Ralph); R.C.J. Zwinkels (Remco)

2013-01-01

textabstractWe propose a theoretical framework of exchange rate behavior where investors focus on a subset of economic fundamentals. We find that any adjustment in the set of predictors used by investors leads to changes in the relation between the exchange rate and fundamentals. We test the
Different rates of DNA replication at early versus late S-phase sections: multiscale modeling of stochastic events related to DNA content/EdU (5-ethynyl-2'deoxyuridine) incorporation distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Biao; Zhao, Hong; Rybak, Paulina; Dobrucki, Jurek W; Darzynkiewicz, Zbigniew; Kimmel, Marek

2014-09-01

Mathematical modeling allows relating molecular events to single-cell characteristics assessed by multiparameter cytometry. In the present study we labeled newly synthesized DNA in A549 human lung carcinoma cells with 15-120 min pulses of EdU. All DNA was stained with DAPI and cellular fluorescence was measured by laser scanning cytometry. The frequency of cells in the ascending (left) side of the "horseshoe"-shaped EdU/DAPI bivariate distributions reports the rate of DNA replication at the time of entrance to S phase while their frequency in the descending (right) side is a marker of DNA replication rate at the time of transition from S to G2 phase. To understand the connection between molecular-scale events and scatterplot asymmetry, we developed a multiscale stochastic model, which simulates DNA replication and cell cycle progression of individual cells and produces in silico EdU/DAPI scatterplots. For each S-phase cell the time points at which replication origins are fired are modeled by a non-homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP). Shifted gamma distributions are assumed for durations of cell cycle phases (G1, S and G2 M), Depending on the rate of DNA synthesis being an increasing or decreasing function, simulated EdU/DAPI bivariate graphs show predominance of cells in left (early-S) or right (late-S) side of the horseshoe distribution. Assuming NHPP rate estimated from independent experiments, simulated EdU/DAPI graphs are nearly indistinguishable from those experimentally observed. This finding proves consistency between the S-phase DNA-replication rate based on molecular-scale analyses, and cell population kinetics ascertained from EdU/DAPI scatterplots and demonstrates that DNA replication rate at entrance to S is relatively slow compared with its rather abrupt termination during S to G2 transition. Our approach opens a possibility of similar modeling to study the effect of anticancer drugs on DNA replication/cell cycle progression and also to quantify other
GAS REGULATION OF GALAXIES: THE EVOLUTION OF THE COSMIC SPECIFIC STAR FORMATION RATE, THE METALLICITY-MASS-STAR-FORMATION RATE RELATION, AND THE STELLAR CONTENT OF HALOS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lilly, Simon J.; Carollo, C. Marcella; Pipino, Antonio; Peng Yingjie [Institute for Astronomy, Department of Physics, ETH Zurich, CH-8093 Zurich (Switzerland); Renzini, Alvio [Department of Physics and Astronomy Galileo Galilei, Universita degli Studi di Padova, via Marzolo 8, I-35131 Padova (Italy)

2013-08-01

A very simple physical model of galaxies is one in which the formation of stars is instantaneously regulated by the mass of gas in a reservoir with mass loss scaling with the star-formation rate (SFR). This model links together three different aspects of the evolving galaxy population: (1) the cosmic time evolution of the specific star-formation rate (sSFR) relative to the growth of halos, (2) the gas-phase metallicities across the galaxy population and over cosmic time, and (3) the ratio of the stellar to dark matter mass of halos. The gas regulator is defined by the gas consumption timescale ({epsilon}{sup -1}) and the mass loading {lambda} of the wind outflow {lambda}{center_dot}SFR. The simplest regulator, in which {epsilon} and {lambda} are constant, sets the sSFR equal to exactly the specific accretion rate of the galaxy; more realistic situations lead to an sSFR that is perturbed from this precise relation. Because the gas consumption timescale is shorter than the timescale on which the system evolves, the metallicity Z is set primarily by the instantaneous operation of the regulator system rather than by the past history of the system. The metallicity of the gas reservoir depends on {epsilon}, {lambda}, and sSFR, and the regulator system therefore naturally produces a Z(m{sub star}, SFR) relation if {epsilon} and {lambda} depend on the stellar mass m{sub star}. Furthermore, this relation will be the same at all epochs unless the parameters {epsilon} and {lambda} themselves change with time. A so-called fundamental metallicity relation is naturally produced by these conditions. The overall mass-metallicity relation Z(m{sub star}) directly provides the fraction f{sub star}(m{sub star}) of incoming baryons that are being transformed into stars. The observed Z(m{sub star}) relation of Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) galaxies implies a strong dependence of stellar mass on halo mass that reconciles the different faint-end slopes of the stellar and halo mass
Sensitivity of tropospheric heating rates to aerosols: A modeling study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanna, A.F.; Shankar, U.; Mathur, R.

1994-01-01

The effect of aerosols on the radiation balance is critical to the energetics of the atmosphere. Because of the relatively long residence of specific types of aerosols in the atmosphere and their complex thermal and chemical interactions, understanding their behavior is crucial for understanding global climate change. The authors used the Regional Particulate Model (RPM) to simulate aerosols in the eastern United States in order to identify the aerosol characteristics of specific rural and urban areas these characteristics include size, concentration, and vertical profile. A radiative transfer model based on an improved δ-Eddington approximation with 26 spectral intervals spanning the solar spectrum was then used to analyze the tropospheric heating rates associated with these different aerosol distributions. The authors compared heating rates forced by differences in surface albedo associated with different land-use characteristics, and found that tropospheric heating and surface cooling are sensitive to surface properties such as albedo
Unsteady-state human-body exergy consumption rate and its relation to subjective assessment of dynamic thermal environments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schweiker, Marcel; Kolarik, Jakub; Dovjak, Mateja

2016-01-01

of the present study confirmed previously indicated trends that lowest human body exergy consumption rate is associated with thermal sensation close to neutrality. Moreover, higher acceptability was in general associated with lower human body exergy consumption rate. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.......Few examples studied applicability of exergy analysis on human thermal comfort. These examples relate the human-body exergy consumption rate with subjectively obtained thermal sensation votes and had been based on steady-state calculation methods. However, humans are rarely exposed to steady...... between the human-body exergy consumption rate and subjective assessment of thermal environment represented by thermal sensation as well as to extend the investigation towards thermal acceptability votes. Comparison of steady-state and unsteady-state model showed that results from both models were...
Pricing Asian Interest Rate Options with a Three-Factor HJM Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudio Henrique Barbedo

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Pricing interest rate derivatives is a challenging task that has attracted the attention of many researchers in recent decades. Portfolio and risk managers, policymakers, traders and more generally all market participants are looking for valuable information from derivative instruments. We use a standard procedure to implement the HJM model and to price IDI options. We intend to assess the importance of the principal components of pricing and interest rate hedging derivatives in Brazil, one of the major emerging markets. Our results indicate that the HJM model consistently underprices IDI options traded in the over-the-counter market while it overprices long-term options traded in the exchange studied. We also find a direct relationship between time to maturity and pricing error and a negative relation with moneyness.
Age-Related Racial Disparity in Suicide Rates Among U.S. Youth

Science.gov (United States)

... May 30, 2018 Age-Related Racial Disparity in Youth Suicide Rates May 21, 2018 News by Year 2018 ... May 30, 2018 Age-Related Racial Disparity in Youth Suicide Rates May 21, 2018 News by Year 2018 ...
On diffusion processes with variable drift rates as models for decision making during learning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eckhoff, P; Holmes, P; Law, C; Connolly, P M; Gold, J I

2008-01-01

We investigate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and diffusion processes with variable drift rates as models of evidence accumulation in a visual discrimination task. We derive power-law and exponential drift-rate models and characterize how parameters of these models affect the psychometric function describing performance accuracy as a function of stimulus strength and viewing time. We fit the models to psychophysical data from monkeys learning the task to identify parameters that best capture performance as it improves with training. The most informative parameter was the overall drift rate describing the signal-to-noise ratio of the sensory evidence used to form the decision, which increased steadily with training. In contrast, secondary parameters describing the time course of the drift during motion viewing did not exhibit steady trends. The results indicate that relatively simple versions of the diffusion model can fit behavior over the course of training, thereby giving a quantitative account of learning effects on the underlying decision process
A Comparison of Moment Rates for the Eastern Mediterranean Region from Competitive Kinematic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, E. C.; Ozeren, M. S.; Shen-Tu, B.; Galgana, G. A.

2017-12-01

Relatively continuous, complex, and long-lived episodes of tectonic deformation gradually shaped the lithosphere of the eastern Mediterranean region into its present state. This large geodynamically interconnected and seismically active region absorbs, accumulates and transmits strains arising from stresses associated with: (1) steady northward convergence of the Arabian and African plates; (2) differences in lithospheric gravitational potential energy; and (3) basal tractions exerted by subduction along the Hellenic and Cyprus Arcs. Over the last twenty years, numerous kinematic models have been built using a variety of assumptions to take advantage of the extensive and dense GPS observations made across the entire region resulting in a far better characterization of the neotectonic deformation field than ever previously achieved. In this study, three separate horizontal strain rate field solutions obtained from three, region-wide, GPS only based kinematic models (i.e., a regional block model, a regional continuum model, and global continuum model) are utilized to estimate the distribution and uncertainty of geodetic moment rates within the eastern Mediterranean region. The geodetic moment rates from each model are also compared with seismic moment release rates gleaned from historic earthquake data. Moreover, kinematic styles of deformation derived from each of the modeled horizontal strain rate fields are examined for their degree of correlation with earthquake rupture styles defined by proximal centroid moment tensor solutions. This study suggests that significant differences in geodetically obtained moment rates from competitive kinematic models may introduce unforeseen bias into regularly updated, geodetically constrained, regional seismic hazard assessments.
Volatility modeling for IDR exchange rate through APARCH model with student-t distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Nugroho, Didit Budi; Susanto, Bambang

2017-08-01

The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the performance of APARCH(1,1) volatility model with the Student-t error distribution on five foreign currency selling rates to Indonesian rupiah (IDR), including the Swiss franc (CHF), the Euro (EUR), the British pound (GBP), Japanese yen (JPY), and the US dollar (USD). Six years daily closing rates over the period of January 2010 to December 2016 for a total number of 1722 observations have analysed. The Bayesian inference using the efficient independence chain Metropolis-Hastings and adaptive random walk Metropolis methods in the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme has been applied to estimate the parameters of model. According to the DIC criterion, this study has found that the APARCH(1,1) model under Student-t distribution is a better fit than the model under normal distribution for any observed rate return series. The 95% highest posterior density interval suggested the APARCH models to model the IDR/JPY and IDR/USD volatilities. In particular, the IDR/JPY and IDR/USD data, respectively, have significant negative and positive leverage effect in the rate returns. Meanwhile, the optimal power coefficient of volatility has been found to be statistically different from 2 in adopting all rate return series, save the IDR/EUR rate return series.
Testing hypotheses in an I(2) model with applications to the persistent long swings in the Dmk/$ rate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Søren; Juselius, Katarina; Frydman, Roman

long-term interest rates and two short-term interest rates over the 1975-1999 period. One important aim of the paper is to demonstrate that by structuring the data with the help of the I(2) model one can achieve a better understanding of the empirical regularities underlying the persistent swings...... components in the I(2) model is discussed at some length. Model specification and tests are illustrated with an empirical analysis of long and persistent swings in the foreign exchange market between Germany and USA. The data analyzed consist of nominal exchange rates, relative prices, US inflation rate, two...... in nominal exchange rates, typical in periods of floating exchange rates....
A model relating Eulerian spatial and temporal velocity correlations

Science.gov (United States)

Cholemari, Murali R.; Arakeri, Jaywant H.

2006-03-01

In this paper we propose a model to relate Eulerian spatial and temporal velocity autocorrelations in homogeneous, isotropic and stationary turbulence. We model the decorrelation as the eddies of various scales becoming decorrelated. This enables us to connect the spatial and temporal separations required for a certain decorrelation through the ‘eddy scale’. Given either the spatial or the temporal velocity correlation, we obtain the ‘eddy scale’ and the rate at which the decorrelation proceeds. This leads to a spatial separation from the temporal correlation and a temporal separation from the spatial correlation, at any given value of the correlation relating the two correlations. We test the model using experimental data from a stationary axisymmetric turbulent flow with homogeneity along the axis.
A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Tims (Ben); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

2003-01-01

textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are
Rate control management of atrial fibrillation: may a mathematical model suggest an ideal heart rate?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matteo Anselmino

Full Text Available Despite the routine prescription of rate control therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF, clinical evidence demonstrating a heart rate target is lacking. Aim of the present study was to run a mathematical model simulating AF episodes with a different heart rate (HR to predict hemodynamic parameters for each situation.The lumped model, representing the pumping heart together with systemic and pulmonary circuits, was run to simulate AF with HR of 50, 70, 90, 110 and 130 bpm, respectively.Left ventricular pressure increased by 57%, from 33.92±37.56 mmHg to 53.15±47.56 mmHg, and mean systemic arterial pressure increased by 27%, from 82.66±14.04 mmHg to 105.3±7.6 mmHg, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. Stroke volume (from 77.45±8.50 to 39.09±8.08 mL, ejection fraction (from 61.10±4.40 to 39.32±5.42% and stroke work (SW, from 0.88±0.04 to 0.58±0.09 J decreased by 50, 36 and 34%, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. In addition, oxygen consumption indexes (rate pressure product - RPP, tension time index per minute - TTI/min, and pressure volume area per minute - PVA/min increased from the 50 to the 130 bpm simulation, respectively, by 186% (from 5598±1939 to 15995±3219 mmHg/min, 56% (from 2094±265 to 3257±301 mmHg s/min and 102% (from 57.99±17.90 to 117.4±26.0 J/min. In fact, left ventricular efficiency (SW/PVA decreased from 80.91±2.91% at 50 bpm to 66.43±3.72% at the 130 bpm HR simulation.Awaiting compulsory direct clinical evidences, the present mathematical model suggests that lower HRs during permanent AF relates to improved hemodynamic parameters, cardiac efficiency, and lower oxygen consumption.
Rate control management of atrial fibrillation: may a mathematical model suggest an ideal heart rate?

Science.gov (United States)

Anselmino, Matteo; Scarsoglio, Stefania; Camporeale, Carlo; Saglietto, Andrea; Gaita, Fiorenzo; Ridolfi, Luca

2015-01-01

Despite the routine prescription of rate control therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF), clinical evidence demonstrating a heart rate target is lacking. Aim of the present study was to run a mathematical model simulating AF episodes with a different heart rate (HR) to predict hemodynamic parameters for each situation. The lumped model, representing the pumping heart together with systemic and pulmonary circuits, was run to simulate AF with HR of 50, 70, 90, 110 and 130 bpm, respectively. Left ventricular pressure increased by 57%, from 33.92±37.56 mmHg to 53.15±47.56 mmHg, and mean systemic arterial pressure increased by 27%, from 82.66±14.04 mmHg to 105.3±7.6 mmHg, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. Stroke volume (from 77.45±8.50 to 39.09±8.08 mL), ejection fraction (from 61.10±4.40 to 39.32±5.42%) and stroke work (SW, from 0.88±0.04 to 0.58±0.09 J) decreased by 50, 36 and 34%, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. In addition, oxygen consumption indexes (rate pressure product - RPP, tension time index per minute - TTI/min, and pressure volume area per minute - PVA/min) increased from the 50 to the 130 bpm simulation, respectively, by 186% (from 5598±1939 to 15995±3219 mmHg/min), 56% (from 2094±265 to 3257±301 mmHg s/min) and 102% (from 57.99±17.90 to 117.4±26.0 J/min). In fact, left ventricular efficiency (SW/PVA) decreased from 80.91±2.91% at 50 bpm to 66.43±3.72% at the 130 bpm HR simulation. Awaiting compulsory direct clinical evidences, the present mathematical model suggests that lower HRs during permanent AF relates to improved hemodynamic parameters, cardiac efficiency, and lower oxygen consumption.

Stochastic interest rates model in compounding | Galadima ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Stochastic interest rates model in compounding. ... in finance, real estate, insurance, accounting and other areas of business administration. The assumption that future rates are fixed and known with certainty at the beginning of an investment, ...
A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility

OpenAIRE

Tims, Ben; Mahieu, Ronald

2003-01-01

textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are interpreted as the underlying currency specific components. Due to the normality of logarithmic volatilities the model can be estimated conveniently with standard Kalman filter techniques. Our resu...
Relative biological effectiveness of 125I seeds for low-dose-rate irradiation of PANC-1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Jidong; Wang Junjie; Zhuang Hongqing; Liao Anyan; Zhao Yong

2008-01-01

Objective: To investigate the relative biological effectiveness(RBE) of National Model 6711 125 I seeds and the response patterns of PANC-1 exposed to 125 I seeds irradiation. Methods: PANC-1 cells in exponential growth were irradiated at initial dose rate of 2.59 cGy/h in vitro and exposed to 1, 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 Gy. Meanwhile, the other part of cells were exposed to the same doses by 60 Co at dose rate of 2.21 Gy/min. After irradiation, the cells were stained by trypan blue to measure the cellular mortality rate and to compare the changes along with plating times of 12, 24, 48 and 72 h after 4 Gy. The colonies were counted to obtain the plating efficiencies by colony-forming assay and the cell surviving faction was calculated to plot cell survival curves, and RBE of 125 I seeds relative to 60 Co was determined. Results: The cell death rate for continuous low- dose-rate (LDR) irradiation by 125 I seeds was greater than 60 Co at the same doses above or equal to 4 Gy. After 4 Gy irradiation, the cellular mortality rates were increased with times. The difference was significant between 125 I seeds and 60 Co. The survival fractions of 125 I were lower than those of 60 Co, and the RBE of 125 I relative to 60 Co was determined to be 1.45. Conclusion: The cell-killing effects for continuous low-dose-rate (LDR) irradiation by 125 I seeds are greater than acute high-dose-rate of 60 Co. (authors)
Inflation, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates in Ghana: an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dennis Nchor

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate movement and the nominal interest rate on inflation in Ghana. It also looks at the presence of the Fisher Effect and the International Fisher Effect scenarios. It makes use of an autoregressive distributed lag model and an unrestricted error correction model. Ordinary Least Squares regression methods were also employed to determine the presence of the Fischer Effect and the International Fisher Effect. The results from the study show that in the short run a percentage point increase in the level of depreciation of the Ghana cedi leads to an increase in the rate of inflation by 0.20%. A percentage point increase in the level of nominal interest rates however results in a decrease in inflation by 0.98%. Inflation increases by 1.33% for every percentage point increase in the nominal interest rate in the long run. An increase in inflation on the other hand increases the nominal interest rate by 0.51% which demonstrates the partial Fisher effect. A 1% increase in the interest rate differential leads to a depreciation of the Ghana cedi by approximately 1% which indicates the full International Fisher effect.
Incidence and progression rates of age-related maculopathy: the Rotterdam Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.J.M. Willemse-Assink (Jacqueline); R. van Leeuwen (Redmer); R.C.W. Wolfs (Roger); J.R. Vingerling (Hans); Th. Stijnen (Theo); P.T.V.M. de Jong (Paulus); C.C.W. Klaver (Caroline); A. Hofman (Albert)

2001-01-01

textabstractPURPOSE: To describe the incidence rate of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and the progression rates of early stages of age-related maculopathy (ARM), and to study the hierarchy of fundus features that determine progression. METHODS: A group of 4953 subjects
Relation between climate and diesel fuel rate consumption for sugar cane agriculture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fonte Hernandez, Aramis; Rivero Vega, Roger

2005-01-01

In the present work, some results are shown of a study carried out within the ENERCLIMA project. The principal objective was to establish the relationship between diesel fuel rate consumption by agricultural equipment in activities related to sugar cane production and simple climatic variables. Through a statistical analysis, we show the possibility of obtaining statistical models of an acceptable confidence level, as applied to some of these activities, which could be used in order to plan more rationally the level of fuel consumption of the agricultural companies with access to meteorological stations located nearby
Simple mass transport model for metal uptake by marine macroalgae growing at different rates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rice, D.L.

1984-01-01

Although algae growing at different rates may exhibit different concentrations of a given metal, such differences in algal chemistry may or may not reflect actual effects of environmental growth factors on the kinetics of metal uptake. Published data on uptake of rubidium, cadmium, and manganese by the green seaweed Ulva fasciata Delile grown at different rates in open system sea water was interpreted using the model. Differences in exposure time to sea water of relatively old and relatively young thalli were responsible for significant decreases in algal rubidium and cadmium concentrations with increases in specific growth rate. The biomass-specific growth rates of uptake of these two metals did not vary with growth rate. Both algal concentrations and specific rates of uptake of manganese increase significantly with increasing growth rate, thus indicating a distinct link between the kinetics of manganese uptake and metabolic rate. Under some circumstances, seaweed bioassay coupled with an interpretive model may provide the only reasonable approach to the study of chemical uptake-growth phenomena. In practice, if the residence time of sea water in culture chambers is sufficiently low to preclude pseudo-closed system artifacts, differences in trace metal concentrations between input and output sea water may be difficult to detect. In the field and in situ experiments based on time-series monitoring of changes in the water chemistry would be technically difficult or perhaps impossible to perform. 13 references, 1 figure.
Modelling and parameterizing the influence of tides on ice-shelf melt rates

Science.gov (United States)

Jourdain, N.; Molines, J. M.; Le Sommer, J.; Mathiot, P.; de Lavergne, C.; Gurvan, M.; Durand, G.

2017-12-01

Significant Antarctic ice sheet thinning is observed in several sectors of Antarctica, in particular in the Amundsen Sea sector, where warm circumpolar deep waters affect basal melting. The later has the potential to trigger marine ice sheet instabilities, with an associated potential for rapid sea level rise. It is therefore crucial to simulate and understand the processes associated with ice-shelf melt rates. In particular, the absence of tides representation in ocean models remains a caveat of numerous ocean hindcasts and climate projections. In the Amundsen Sea, tides are relatively weak and the melt-induced circulation is stronger than the tidal circulation. Using a regional 1/12° ocean model of the Amundsen Sea, we nonetheless find that tides can increase melt rates by up to 36% in some ice-shelf cavities. Among the processes that can possibly affect melt rates, the most important is an increased exchange at the ice/ocean interface resulting from the presence of strong tidal currents along the ice drafts. Approximately a third of this effect is compensated by a decrease in thermal forcing along the ice draft, which is related to an enhanced vertical mixing in the ocean interior in presence of tides. Parameterizing the effect of tides is an alternative to the representation of explicit tides in an ocean model, and has the advantage not to require any filtering of ocean model outputs. We therefore explore different ways to parameterize the effects of tides on ice shelf melt. First, we compare several methods to impose tidal velocities along the ice draft. We show that getting a realistic spatial distribution of tidal velocities in important, and can be deduced from the barotropic velocities of a tide model. Then, we explore several aspects of parameterized tidal mixing to reproduce the tide-induced decrease in thermal forcing along the ice drafts.
An examination of black/white differences in the rate of age-related mortality increase

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Fenelon

2013-09-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND The rate of mortality increase with age among adults is typically used as a measure of the rate of functional decline associated with aging or senescence. While black and white populations differ in the level of mortality, mortality also rises less rapidly with age for blacks than for whites, leading to the well-known black/white mortality "crossover". OBJECTIVE This paper investigates black/white differences in the rate of mortality increase with age for major causes of death in order to examine the factors responsible for the black/white crossover. METHODS The analysis considers two explanations for the crossover: selective survival and age misreporting. Mortality is modeled using a Gompertz model for 11 causes of death from ages 50-84 among blacks and whites by sex. RESULTS Mortality increases more rapidly with age for whites than for blacks for nearly all causes of death considered. The all-cause mortality rate of mortality increase is nearly two percentage points higher for whites. The analysis finds evidence for both selective survival and age misreporting, although age misreporting is a more prominent explanation among women. CONCLUSIONS The black/white mortality crossover reflects large differences in the rate of age-related mortality increase. Instead of reflecting the impact of specific causes of death, this pattern exists across many disparate disease conditions, indicating the need for a broad explanation.
Testing the Monetary Model for Exchange Rate Determination in South Africa: Evidence from 101 Years of Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riané de Bruyn

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Evidence in favor of the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand is, at best, mixed. A co-integrating relationship between the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals forms the basis of the monetary model. With the econometric literature suggesting that the span of the data, not the frequency, determines the power of the co-integration tests and the studies on South Africa primarily using short-span data from the post-Bretton Woods era, we decided to test the long-run monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand relative to the US Dollar using annual data from 1910 – 2010. The results provide some support for the monetary model in that long-run co-integration is found between the nominal exchange rate and the output and money supply deviations. However, the theoretical restrictions required by the monetary model are rejected. A vector error-correction model identifies both the nominal exchange rate and the monetary fundamentals as the channel for the adjustment process of deviations from the long-run equilibrium exchange rate. A subsequent comparison of nominal exchange rate forecasts based on the monetary model with those of the random walk model suggests that the forecasting performance of the monetary model is superior.
Exploring patient satisfaction predictors in relation to a theoretical model.

Science.gov (United States)

Grøndahl, Vigdis Abrahamsen; Hall-Lord, Marie Louise; Karlsson, Ingela; Appelgren, Jari; Wilde-Larsson, Bodil

2013-01-01

The aim is to describe patients' care quality perceptions and satisfaction and to explore potential patient satisfaction predictors as person-related conditions, external objective care conditions and patients' perception of actual care received ("PR") in relation to a theoretical model. A cross-sectional design was used. Data were collected using one questionnaire combining questions from four instruments: Quality from patients' perspective; Sense of coherence; Big five personality trait; and Emotional stress reaction questionnaire (ESRQ), together with questions from previous research. In total, 528 patients (83.7 per cent response rate) from eight medical, three surgical and one medical/surgical ward in five Norwegian hospitals participated. Answers from 373 respondents with complete ESRQ questionnaires were analysed. Sequential multiple regression analysis with ESRQ as dependent variable was run in three steps: person-related conditions, external objective care conditions, and PR (p person-related conditions) explained 51.7 per cent of the ESRQ variance. Step 2 (external objective care conditions) explained an additional 2.4 per cent. Step 3 (PR) gave no significant additional explanation (0.05 per cent). Steps 1 and 2 contributed statistical significance to the model. Patients rated both quality-of-care and satisfaction highly. The paper shows that the theoretical model using an emotion-oriented approach to assess patient satisfaction can explain 54 per cent of patient satisfaction in a statistically significant manner.
Stellar Absorption Line Analysis of Local Star-forming Galaxies: The Relation between Stellar Mass, Metallicity, Dust Attenuation, and Star Formation Rate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jabran Zahid, H. [Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Kudritzki, Rolf-Peter; Ho, I-Ting [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Institute for Astronomy, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Conroy, Charlie [Department of Astronomy, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138 (United States); Andrews, Brett, E-mail: zahid@cfa.harvard.edu [PITT PACC, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pittsburgh, 3941 O’Hara Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15260 (United States)

2017-09-20

We analyze the optical continuum of star-forming galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey by fitting stacked spectra with stellar population synthesis models to investigate the relation between stellar mass, stellar metallicity, dust attenuation, and star formation rate. We fit models calculated with star formation and chemical evolution histories that are derived empirically from multi-epoch observations of the stellar mass–star formation rate and the stellar mass–gas-phase metallicity relations, respectively. We also fit linear combinations of single-burst models with a range of metallicities and ages. Star formation and chemical evolution histories are unconstrained for these models. The stellar mass–stellar metallicity relations obtained from the two methods agree with the relation measured from individual supergiant stars in nearby galaxies. These relations are also consistent with the relation obtained from emission-line analysis of gas-phase metallicity after accounting for systematic offsets in the gas-phase metallicity. We measure dust attenuation of the stellar continuum and show that its dependence on stellar mass and star formation rate is consistent with previously reported results derived from nebular emission lines. However, stellar continuum attenuation is smaller than nebular emission line attenuation. The continuum-to-nebular attenuation ratio depends on stellar mass and is smaller in more massive galaxies. Our consistent analysis of stellar continuum and nebular emission lines paves the way for a comprehensive investigation of stellar metallicities of star-forming and quiescent galaxies.
Stellar Absorption Line Analysis of Local Star-forming Galaxies: The Relation between Stellar Mass, Metallicity, Dust Attenuation, and Star Formation Rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jabran Zahid, H.; Kudritzki, Rolf-Peter; Ho, I-Ting; Conroy, Charlie; Andrews, Brett

2017-01-01

We analyze the optical continuum of star-forming galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey by fitting stacked spectra with stellar population synthesis models to investigate the relation between stellar mass, stellar metallicity, dust attenuation, and star formation rate. We fit models calculated with star formation and chemical evolution histories that are derived empirically from multi-epoch observations of the stellar mass–star formation rate and the stellar mass–gas-phase metallicity relations, respectively. We also fit linear combinations of single-burst models with a range of metallicities and ages. Star formation and chemical evolution histories are unconstrained for these models. The stellar mass–stellar metallicity relations obtained from the two methods agree with the relation measured from individual supergiant stars in nearby galaxies. These relations are also consistent with the relation obtained from emission-line analysis of gas-phase metallicity after accounting for systematic offsets in the gas-phase metallicity. We measure dust attenuation of the stellar continuum and show that its dependence on stellar mass and star formation rate is consistent with previously reported results derived from nebular emission lines. However, stellar continuum attenuation is smaller than nebular emission line attenuation. The continuum-to-nebular attenuation ratio depends on stellar mass and is smaller in more massive galaxies. Our consistent analysis of stellar continuum and nebular emission lines paves the way for a comprehensive investigation of stellar metallicities of star-forming and quiescent galaxies.
Estimation of rates-across-sites distributions in phylogenetic substitution models.

Science.gov (United States)

Susko, Edward; Field, Chris; Blouin, Christian; Roger, Andrew J

2003-10-01

Previous work has shown that it is often essential to account for the variation in rates at different sites in phylogenetic models in order to avoid phylogenetic artifacts such as long branch attraction. In most current models, the gamma distribution is used for the rates-across-sites distributions and is implemented as an equal-probability discrete gamma. In this article, we introduce discrete distribution estimates with large numbers of equally spaced rate categories allowing us to investigate the appropriateness of the gamma model. With large numbers of rate categories, these discrete estimates are flexible enough to approximate the shape of almost any distribution. Likelihood ratio statistical tests and a nonparametric bootstrap confidence-bound estimation procedure based on the discrete estimates are presented that can be used to test the fit of a parametric family. We applied the methodology to several different protein data sets, and found that although the gamma model often provides a good parametric model for this type of data, rate estimates from an equal-probability discrete gamma model with a small number of categories will tend to underestimate the largest rates. In cases when the gamma model assumption is in doubt, rate estimates coming from the discrete rate distribution estimate with a large number of rate categories provide a robust alternative to gamma estimates. An alternative implementation of the gamma distribution is proposed that, for equal numbers of rate categories, is computationally more efficient during optimization than the standard gamma implementation and can provide more accurate estimates of site rates.
Modeling Long Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laila Alejandra Puntel

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn (Zea mays L. can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM to simulate corn and soybean (Glycine max L. yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha-1 applied to corn. Our objectives were to: a quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; b compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and c utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simultaneously simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration, which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration. For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-yr mean differences in EONR’s were within the historical N rate error range (40 to 50 kg N ha-1. However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching with precipitation. We concluded that long term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add
Modeling Long-Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation.

Science.gov (United States)

Puntel, Laila A; Sawyer, John E; Barker, Daniel W; Dietzel, Ranae; Poffenbarger, Hanna; Castellano, Michael J; Moore, Kenneth J; Thorburn, Peter; Archontoulis, Sotirios V

2016-01-01

Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn ( Zea mays L. ) can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate corn and soybean ( Glycine max L. ) yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR) using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn) and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha -1 ) applied to corn. Our objectives were to: (a) quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; (b) compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and (c) utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration), which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration). For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-year mean differences in EONR's were within the historical N rate error range (40-50 kg N ha -1 ). However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching) with precipitation. We concluded that long-term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add value toward
Interest rate modeling post-crisis challenges and approaches

CERN Document Server

Grbac, Zorana

2015-01-01

Filling a gap in the literature caused by the recent financial crisis, this book provides a treatment of the techniques needed to model and evaluate interest rate derivatives according to the new paradigm for fixed income markets. Concerning this new development, there presently exist only research articles and two books, one of them an edited volume, both being written by researchers working mainly in practice. The aim of this book is to concentrate primarily on the methodological side, thereby providing an overview of the state-of-the-art and also clarifying the link between the new models and the classical literature. The book is intended to serve as a guide for graduate students and researchers as well as practitioners interested in the paradigm change for fixed income markets. A basic knowledge of fixed income markets and related stochastic methodology is assumed as a prerequisite.
Cross-lagged relations between teacher and parent ratings of children's task avoidance and different literacy skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Georgiou, George K; Hirvonen, Riikka; Manolitsis, George; Nurmi, Jari-Erik

2017-09-01

Task avoidance is a significant predictor of literacy skills. However, it remains unclear whether the relation between the two is reciprocal and whether it is affected by the type of literacy outcome, who is rating children's task avoidance, and the children's gender. The purpose of this longitudinal study was to examine the cross-lagged relations between teacher and parent ratings of children's task avoidance and different literacy skills. One hundred and seventy-two Greek children (91 girls, 81 boys) were followed from Grade 1 to Grade 3. Children were assessed on reading accuracy, reading fluency, and spelling to dictation. Parents and teachers rated the children's task-avoidant behaviour. Results of structural equation modelling showed that the cross-lagged relations varied as a function of the literacy outcome, who rated the children's task avoidance, and children's gender. Earlier reading and spelling performance predicted subsequent parent-rated task avoidance, but parent-rated task avoidance did not predict subsequent reading and spelling performance (with the exception of spelling in Grade 3). Teacher-rated task avoidance and reading fluency/spelling had a reciprocal relationship over time. In addition, the effects of teacher-rated task avoidance on future spelling were significantly stronger in boys than in girls. This suggests that poor reading and spelling performance can lead to subsequent task avoidance in both classroom and home situations. The fact that task avoidance permeates across different learning environments is alarming and calls for joint action from both parents and teachers to mitigate its negative impact on learning. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.
Beyond Rating Curves: Time Series Models for in-Stream Turbidity Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, L.; Mukundan, R.; Zion, M.; Pierson, D. C.

2012-12-01

The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) manages New York City's water supply, which is comprised of over 20 reservoirs and supplies over 1 billion gallons of water per day to more than 9 million customers. DEP's "West of Hudson" reservoirs located in the Catskill Mountains are unfiltered per a renewable filtration avoidance determination granted by the EPA. While water quality is usually pristine, high volume storm events occasionally cause the reservoirs to become highly turbid. A logical strategy for turbidity control is to temporarily remove the turbid reservoirs from service. While effective in limiting delivery of turbid water and reducing the need for in-reservoir alum flocculation, this strategy runs the risk of negatively impacting water supply reliability. Thus, it is advantageous for DEP to understand how long a particular turbidity event will affect their system. In order to understand the duration, intensity and total load of a turbidity event, predictions of future in-stream turbidity values are important. Traditionally, turbidity predictions have been carried out by applying streamflow observations/forecasts to a flow-turbidity rating curve. However, predictions from rating curves are often inaccurate due to inter- and intra-event variability in flow-turbidity relationships. Predictions can be improved by applying an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model in combination with a traditional rating curve. Since 2003, DEP and the Upstate Freshwater Institute have compiled a relatively consistent set of 15-minute turbidity observations at various locations on Esopus Creek above Ashokan Reservoir. Using daily averages of this data and streamflow observations at nearby USGS gauges, flow-turbidity rating curves were developed via linear regression. Time series analysis revealed that the linear regression residuals may be represented using an ARMA(1,2) process. Based on this information, flow-turbidity regressions with
A Bigraph Relational Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beauquier, Maxime; Schürmann, Carsten

2011-01-01

In this paper, we present a model based on relations for bigraphical reactive system [Milner09]. Its defining characteristics are that validity and reaction relations are captured as traces in a multi-set rewriting system. The relational model is derived from Milner's graphical definition...

Random breath testing in Queensland and Western Australia: examination of how the random breath testing rate influences alcohol related traffic crash rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferris, Jason; Mazerolle, Lorraine; King, Mark; Bates, Lyndel; Bennett, Sarah; Devaney, Madonna

2013-11-01

In this paper we explore the relationship between monthly random breath testing (RBT) rates (per 1000 licensed drivers) and alcohol-related traffic crash (ARTC) rates over time, across two Australian states: Queensland and Western Australia. We analyse the RBT, ARTC and licensed driver rates across 12 years; however, due to administrative restrictions, we model ARTC rates against RBT rates for the period July 2004 to June 2009. The Queensland data reveals that the monthly ARTC rate is almost flat over the five year period. Based on the results of the analysis, an average of 5.5 ARTCs per 100,000 licensed drivers are observed across the study period. For the same period, the monthly rate of RBTs per 1000 licensed drivers is observed to be decreasing across the study with the results of the analysis revealing no significant variations in the data. The comparison between Western Australia and Queensland shows that Queensland's ARTC monthly percent change (MPC) is 0.014 compared to the MPC of 0.47 for Western Australia. While Queensland maintains a relatively flat ARTC rate, the ARTC rate in Western Australia is increasing. Our analysis reveals an inverse relationship between ARTC RBT rates, that for every 10% increase in the percentage of RBTs to licensed driver there is a 0.15 decrease in the rate of ARTCs per 100,000 licenced drivers. Moreover, in Western Australia, if the 2011 ratio of 1:2 (RBTs to annual number of licensed drivers) were to double to a ratio of 1:1, we estimate the number of monthly ARTCs would reduce by approximately 15. Based on these findings we believe that as the number of RBTs conducted increases the number of drivers willing to risk being detected for drinking driving decreases, because the perceived risk of being detected is considered greater. This is turn results in the number of ARTCs diminishing. The results of this study provide an important evidence base for policy decisions for RBT operations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All
RATING MODELS AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES APPLICATION FOR MANAGEMENT OF ADMINISTRATIVE-TERRITORIAL COMPLEXES

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O. M. Pshinko

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The paper aims to develop rating models and related information technologies designed to resolve the tasks of strategic planning of the administrative and territorial units’ development, as well as the tasks of multi-criteria control of inhomogeneous multiparameter objects operation. Methodology. When solving problems of strategic planning of administrative and territorial development and heterogeneous classes management of objects under control, a set of agreed methods is used. Namely the multi-criteria properties analysis for objects of planning and management, diagnostics of the state parameters, forecasting and management of complex systems of different classes. Their states are estimated by sets of different quality indicators, as well as represented by the individual models of operation process. A new information technology is proposed and created to implement the strategic planning and management tasks. This technology uses the procedures for solving typical tasks, that are implemented in MS SQL Server. Findings. A new approach to develop models of analyze and management of complex systems classes based on the ratings has been proposed. Rating models development for analysis of multicriteria and multiparameter systems has been obtained. The management of these systems is performed on the base of parameters of the current and predicted state by non-uniform distribution of resources. The procedure of sensitivity analysis of the changes in the rating model of inhomogeneous distribution of resources parameters has been developed. The information technology of strategic planning and management of heterogeneous classes of objects based on the rating model has been created. Originality. This article proposes a new approach of the rating indicators’ using as a general model for strategic planning of the development and management of heterogeneous objects that can be characterized by the sets of parameters measured on different scales
Exchange Rate and Interest Rate in the Monetary Policy Reaction Function

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Krušković Borivoje D.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In recent years there has been a particular interest in the relation between exchange rates and interest rates both in developed countries and emerging countries. This is understandable given the important role that these variables have in determining the movement of nominal and real economic variables, including the movement of domestic inflation, real output, exports and imports, foreign exchange reserves, etc. To realized the importance of the given instruments selected macroeconomic indicators, data analysis (monthly data relating to Serbia was made on the basis of the Transfer Function Model, a data analysis (annual data relating to emerging countries was done on the basis of the Stepvise Multiple Regression model. In the transfer function model we used the Maximum Likelihood method for assessing unknown coefficients. In the gradual multiple regression model we used the Least Square method for the evaluation of unknown coefficients. All indicator values were used in the original unmodified form, i.e. there was no need for a variety of transformations. Empirical analysis showed that the exchange rate is a more significant transmission mechanism than the interest rate both in emerging markets and Serbia.
A MODEL OF RATING FOR BANKS IN ROMANIA

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POPA ANAMARIA

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract.In the paper the authors present a model of rating for the banking system. Thus we took into account the records of 11 banks in Romania, based on annual financial reports. The model classified the banks in seven categories according with notes used by Standard Poorâ€™s and Moodyâ€™s rating Agencies.
Seasonal Variations of Indoor Microbial Exposures and Their Relation to Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Air Exchange Rate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frankel, Mika; Bekö, Gabriel; Timm, Michael

2012-01-01

with temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates in Danish homes. Airborne inhalable dust was sampled in five Danish homes throughout the four seasons of 1 year (indoors, n = 127; outdoors, n = 37). Measurements included culturable fungi and bacteria, endotoxin, N-acetyl-beta-d-glucosaminidase, total...... inflammatory potential, particles (0.75 to 15 μm), temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates. Significant seasonal variation was found for all indoor microbial exposures, excluding endotoxin. Indoor fungi peaked in summer (median, 235 CFU/m3) and were lowest in winter (median, 26 CFU/m3). Indoor...... of inhalable dust and number of particles. Temperature and air exchange rates were positively associated with fungi and N-acetyl-beta-d-glucosaminidase and negatively with bacteria and the total inflammatory potential. Although temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates were significantly...
Modelling infant mortality rate in Central Java, Indonesia use generalized poisson regression method

Science.gov (United States)

Prahutama, Alan; Sudarno

2018-05-01

The infant mortality rate is the number of deaths under one year of age occurring among the live births in a given geographical area during a given year, per 1,000 live births occurring among the population of the given geographical area during the same year. This problem needs to be addressed because it is an important element of a country’s economic development. High infant mortality rate will disrupt the stability of a country as it relates to the sustainability of the population in the country. One of regression model that can be used to analyze the relationship between dependent variable Y in the form of discrete data and independent variable X is Poisson regression model. Recently The regression modeling used for data with dependent variable is discrete, among others, poisson regression, negative binomial regression and generalized poisson regression. In this research, generalized poisson regression modeling gives better AIC value than poisson regression. The most significant variable is the Number of health facilities (X1), while the variable that gives the most influence to infant mortality rate is the average breastfeeding (X9).
Sex ratio at birth and mortality rates are negatively related in humans.

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Madhukar Shivajirao Dama

Full Text Available Evolutionary theory posits that resource availability and parental investment ability could signal offspring sex selection, in order to maximize reproductive returns. Non-human studies have provided evidence for this phenomenon, and maternal condition around the time of conception has been identified as most important factor that influence offspring sex selection. However, studies on humans have reported inconsistent results, mostly due to use of disparate measures as indicators of maternal condition. In the present study, the cross-cultural differences in human natal sex ratio were analyzed with respect to indirect measures of condition namely, life expectancy and mortality rate. Multiple regression modeling suggested that mortality rates have distinct predictive power independent of cross-cultural differences in fertility, wealth and latitude that were earlier shown to predict sex ratio at birth. These findings suggest that sex ratio variation in humans may relate to differences in parental and environmental conditions.
Unemployment Rate, Smoking in China: Are They Related?

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Qing; Shen, Jay J; Cochran, Chris

2016-01-08

Studies on the relationship between unemployment rate and smoking have yielded mixed results. The issue in China has not been studied. This study aims to examine the influence of unemployment rate on smoking in China. Logit model and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation were used to estimate the effects. Estimations were done for 4585 individual over 45 using data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study conducted in Zhejiang and Gansu provinces in 2008 and 2012. A percent increase in the unemployment rate resulted in the increase in the likelihood of smoking by a combined 9.1 percent for those who smoked including a 2.9% increase for those who smoked 1-10 cigarettes per day; a 2.8% increase for those who smoked 11-20 cigarettes per day; and a 3.4% increase for those who smoked 20 cigarettes or more per day. The effects were stronger for those who were employed. Non-drinkers were more likely to engage in smoking with increased unemployment rate. 2SLS estimation revealed the same association. The unemployment rate was positively associated with smoking behavior. Smoking control and intervention strategies should focus on both the individual's characteristics and the physical environment in which unemployment rate tend to rise.
Modeling dose-rate on/over the surface of cylindrical radio-models using Monte Carlo methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiao Xuefu; Ma Guoxue; Wen Fuping; Wang Zhongqi; Wang Chaohui; Zhang Jiyun; Huang Qingbo; Zhang Jiaqiu; Wang Xinxing; Wang Jun

2004-01-01

Objective: To determine the dose-rates on/over the surface of 10 cylindrical radio-models, which belong to the Metrology Station of Radio-Geological Survey of CNNC. Methods: The dose-rates on/over the surface of 10 cylindrical radio-models were modeled using the famous Monte Carlo code-MCNP. The dose-rates on/over the surface of 10 cylindrical radio-models were measured by a high gas pressurized ionization chamber dose-rate meter, respectively. The values of dose-rate modeled using MCNP code were compared with those obtained by authors in the present experimental measurement, and with those obtained by other workers previously. Some factors causing the discrepancy between the data obtained by authors using MCNP code and the data obtained using other methods are discussed in this paper. Results: The data of dose-rates on/over the surface of 10 cylindrical radio-models, obtained using MCNP code, were in good agreement with those obtained by other workers using the theoretical method. They were within the discrepancy of ±5% in general, and the maximum discrepancy was less than 10%. Conclusions: As if each factor needed for the Monte Carlo code is correct, the dose-rates on/over the surface of cylindrical radio-models modeled using the Monte Carlo code are correct with an uncertainty of 3%
Response of insect relative growth rate to temperature and host-plant phenology: estimation and validation from field data.

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Mamadou Ciss

Full Text Available Between 1975 to 2011, aphid Relative Growth Rates (RGR were modelled as a function of mean outdoor temperature and host plant phenology. The model was applied to the grain aphid Sitobion avenae using data on aphid counts in winter wheat at two different climate regions in France (oceanic climate, Rennes (western France; continental climate, Paris. Mean observed aphid RGR was higher in Paris compared to the Rennes region. RGR increased with mean temperature, which is explained by aphid reproduction, growth and development being dependent on ambient temperature. From the stem extension to the heading stage in wheat, there was either a plateau in RGR values (Rennes or an increase with a maximum at heading (Paris due to high intrinsic rates of increase in aphids and also to aphid immigration. From the wheat flowering to the ripening stage, RGR decreased in both regions due to the low intrinsic rate of increase in aphids and high emigration rate linked to reduced nutrient quality in maturing wheat. The model validation process showed that the fitted models have more predictive power in the Paris region than in the Rennes region.
Similar star formation rate and metallicity variability time-scales drive the fundamental metallicity relation

Science.gov (United States)

Torrey, Paul; Vogelsberger, Mark; Hernquist, Lars; McKinnon, Ryan; Marinacci, Federico; Simcoe, Robert A.; Springel, Volker; Pillepich, Annalisa; Naiman, Jill; Pakmor, Rüdiger; Weinberger, Rainer; Nelson, Dylan; Genel, Shy

2018-06-01

The fundamental metallicity relation (FMR) is a postulated correlation between galaxy stellar mass, star formation rate (SFR), and gas-phase metallicity. At its core, this relation posits that offsets from the mass-metallicity relation (MZR) at a fixed stellar mass are correlated with galactic SFR. In this Letter, we use hydrodynamical simulations to quantify the time-scales over which populations of galaxies oscillate about the average SFR and metallicity values at fixed stellar mass. We find that Illustris and IllustrisTNG predict that galaxy offsets from the star formation main sequence and MZR oscillate over similar time-scales, are often anticorrelated in their evolution, evolve with the halo dynamical time, and produce a pronounced FMR. Our models indicate that galaxies oscillate about equilibrium SFR and metallicity values - set by the galaxy's stellar mass - and that SFR and metallicity offsets evolve in an anticorrelated fashion. This anticorrelated variability of the metallicity and SFR offsets drives the existence of the FMR in our models. In contrast to Illustris and IllustrisTNG, we speculate that the SFR and metallicity evolution tracks may become decoupled in galaxy formation models dominated by feedback-driven globally bursty SFR histories, which could weaken the FMR residual correlation strength. This opens the possibility of discriminating between bursty and non-bursty feedback models based on the strength and persistence of the FMR - especially at high redshift.
Inference of type-specific HPV transmissibility, progression and clearance rates: a mathematical modelling approach.

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Helen C Johnson

Full Text Available Quantifying rates governing the clearance of Human Papillomavirus (HPV and its progression to clinical disease, together with viral transmissibility and the duration of naturally-acquired immunity, is essential in estimating the impact of vaccination programmes and screening or testing regimes. However, the complex natural history of HPV makes this difficult. We infer the viral transmissibility, rate of waning natural immunity and rates of progression and clearance of infection of 13 high-risk and 2 non-oncogenic HPV types, making use of a number of rich datasets from Sweden. Estimates of viral transmissibility, clearance of initial infection and waning immunity were derived in a Bayesian framework by fitting a susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS transmission model to age- and type-specific HPV prevalence data from both a cross-sectional study and a randomised controlled trial (RCT of primary HPV screening. The models fitted well, but over-estimated the prevalence of four high-risk types with respect to the data. Three of these types (HPV-33, -35 and -58 are among the most closely related phylogenetically to the most prevalent HPV-16. The fourth (HPV-45 is the most closely related to HPV-18; the second most prevalent type. We suggest that this may be an indicator of cross-immunity. Rates of progression and clearance of clinical lesions were additionally estimated from longitudinal data gathered as part of the same RCT. Our estimates of progression and clearance rates are consistent with the findings of survival analysis studies and we extend the literature by estimating progression and clearance rates for non-16 and non-18 high-risk types. We anticipate that such type-specific estimates will be useful in the parameterisation of further models and in developing our understanding of HPV natural history.
Market Microstructure Model: study of variations of exchange rate for Asia and Latin America

OpenAIRE

Lima, Antonieta; Salazar Soares , Vasco

2008-01-01

The paper studies the commercial relations between Europe and its principal commercial partners, such as Asia and Latin America, for the period of 1999 to 2007. The methodology appeals to the correlation analysis of the variables of the model and the autocorrelation of the exchange rate variation variable, to the Augmented DickeyFuller (1979) and Philips Perron tests (1988), and finally, to the market microstructure model suggested by Medeiros(2005). Medeiros(2005) model, when applied to the ...
EXCHANGE-RATES FORECASTING: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES AND ARIMA MODELS

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Dezsi Eva

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Exchange rates forecasting is, and has been a challenging task in finance. Statistical and econometrical models are widely used in analysis and forecasting of foreign exchange rates. This paper investigates the behavior of daily exchange rates of the Romanian Leu against the Euro, United States Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Chinese Renminbi and the Russian Ruble. Smoothing techniques are generated and compared with each other. These models include the Simple Exponential Smoothing technique, as the Double Exponential Smoothing technique, the Simple Holt-Winters, the Additive Holt-Winters, namely the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model.
A Four–Component Model of Age–Related Memory Change

Science.gov (United States)

Healey, M. Karl; Kahana, Michael J.

2015-01-01

We develop a novel, computationally explicit, theory of age–related memory change within the framework of the context maintenance and retrieval (CMR2) model of memory search. We introduce a set of benchmark findings from the free recall and recognition tasks that includes aspects of memory performance that show both age-related stability and decline. We test aging theories by lesioning the corresponding mechanisms in a model fit to younger adult free recall data. When effects are considered in isolation, many theories provide an adequate account, but when all effects are considered simultaneously, the existing theories fail. We develop a novel theory by fitting the full model (i.e., allowing all parameters to vary) to individual participants and comparing the distributions of parameter values for older and younger adults. This theory implicates four components: 1) the ability to sustain attention across an encoding episode, 2) the ability to retrieve contextual representations for use as retrieval cues, 3) the ability to monitor retrievals and reject intrusions, and 4) the level of noise in retrieval competitions. We extend CMR2 to simulate a recognition memory task using the same mechanisms the free recall model uses to reject intrusions. Without fitting any additional parameters, the four–component theory that accounts for age differences in free recall predicts the magnitude of age differences in recognition memory accuracy. Confirming a prediction of the model, free recall intrusion rates correlate positively with recognition false alarm rates. Thus we provide a four–component theory of a complex pattern of age differences across two key laboratory tasks. PMID:26501233
Statistical inference, the bootstrap, and neural-network modeling with application to foreign exchange rates.

Science.gov (United States)

White, H; Racine, J

2001-01-01

We propose tests for individual and joint irrelevance of network inputs. Such tests can be used to determine whether an input or group of inputs "belong" in a particular model, thus permitting valid statistical inference based on estimated feedforward neural-network models. The approaches employ well-known statistical resampling techniques. We conduct a small Monte Carlo experiment showing that our tests have reasonable level and power behavior, and we apply our methods to examine whether there are predictable regularities in foreign exchange rates. We find that exchange rates do appear to contain information that is exploitable for enhanced point prediction, but the nature of the predictive relations evolves through time.
Associations of relative income deprivation with perceived happiness and self-rated health among the Hong Kong Chinese population.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Chee Hon; Wong, Ho Kit; Yip, Paul Siu Fai

2017-07-01

To investigate the association of relative income deprivation (RID) with perceived happiness and self-rated health in Hong Kong. We measured RID on Yitzhaki indices constructed using multiple reference groups and used multilevel ordinal logistic regression models to assess its linkages with the two outcomes, using data from 6272 respondents from a large-scale representative household survey. Among the overall population, increased RID was found to be consistently associated with reduced perceived happiness, even after adjusting for respondents' level of absolute income and other socio-demographic covariates; however, there were no consistent associations between RID and self-rated health. In subgroup analysis, we observed significant linkages between RID and self-rated health only among men, the middle and older age ranges, and among those with less education and those not engaged in economic activities. Our findings suggest that RID is adversely associated with perceived happiness. However, its negative linkage with self-rated health is less clear. The weak tie between RID and self-rated health may relate to the Hong Kong context, where the public health system is relatively equitable and has multiple pro-poor health policies.
Monetary models and exchange rate determination: The Nigerian ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Monetary models and exchange rate determination: The Nigerian evidence. ... income levels and real interest rate differentials provide better forecasts of the ... partner can expect to suffer depreciation in the external value of her currency.
Modeling baroreflex regulation of heart rate during orthostatic stress

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olufsen, Mette; Tran, Hien T.; Ottesen, Johnny T.

2006-01-01

. The model uses blood pressure measured in the finger as an input to model heart rate dynamics in response to changes in baroreceptor nerve firing rate, sympathetic and parasympathetic responses, vestibulo-sympathetic reflex, and concentrations of norepinephrine and acetylcholine. We formulate an inverse...... in healthy and hypertensive elderly people the hysteresis loop shifts to higher blood pressure values and its area is diminished. Finally, for hypertensive elderly people the hysteresis loop is generally not closed indicating that during postural change from sitting to standing, the blood pressure resettles......During orthostatic stress, arterial and cardiopulmonary baroreflexes play a key role in maintaining arterial pressure by regulating heart rate. This study, presents a mathematical model that can predict the dynamics of heart rate regulation in response to postural change from sitting to standing...
Decision-case mix model for analyzing variation in cesarean rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Eldenburg, L; Waller, W S

2001-01-01

This article contributes a decision-case mix model for analyzing variation in c-section rates. Like recent contributions to the literature, the model systematically takes into account the effect of case mix. Going beyond past research, the model highlights differences in physician decision making in response to obstetric factors. Distinguishing the effects of physician decision making and case mix is important in understanding why c-section rates vary and in developing programs to effect change in physician behavior. The model was applied to a sample of deliveries at a hospital where physicians exhibited considerable variation in their c-section rates. Comparing groups with a low versus high rate, the authors' general conclusion is that the difference in physician decision tendencies (to perform a c-section), in response to specific obstetric factors, is at least as important as case mix in explaining variation in c-section rates. The exact effects of decision making versus case mix depend on how the model application defines the obstetric condition of interest and on the weighting of deliveries by their estimated "risk of Cesarean." The general conclusion is supported by an additional analysis that uses the model's elements to predict individual physicians' annual c-section rates.

The Influence of Herbivory on the net rate of Increase of Gypsy Moth Abundance: A Modeling Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Harry T. Valentine

1983-01-01

A differential equation model of gypsy moth abundance, average larval dry weight, and food abundance was used to analyze the effects of changes in foliar chemistry on the net per capita rate of increase in a gypsy moth population. If relative consumption rate per larva is unaffected by herbivory, a reduction in the nutritional value of foliage reduces the net rate of...
Crash rates analysis in China using a spatial panel model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wonmongo Lacina Soro

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The consideration of spatial externalities in traffic safety analysis is of paramount importance for the success of road safety policies. Yet, the quasi-totality of spatial dependence studies on crash rates is performed within the framework of single-equation spatial cross-sectional studies. The present study extends the spatial cross-sectional scheme to a spatial fixed-effects panel model estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The spatial units are the 31 administrative regions of mainland China over the period 2004–2013. The presence of neighborhood effects is evidenced through the Moran's I statistic. Consistent with previous studies, the analysis reveals that omitting the spatial effects in traffic safety analysis is likely to bias the estimation results. The spatial and error lags are all positive and statistically significant suggesting similarities of crash rates pattern in neighboring regions. Some other explanatory variables, such as freight traffic, the length of paved roads and the populations of age 65 and above are related to higher rates while the opposite trend is observed for the Gross Regional Product, the urban unemployment rate and passenger traffic.
Relative effect of dose-rate values and fractionation on late responding tissues and tumours

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malgieri, F.

1995-01-01

There are currently available different facilities for radiotherapy also with regard to the dose-rate values (in the ranges LDR - MDR - HDR), sometimes used alternatively or subsequently for the same tumour. We have set up a 'unitary' L-Q model, based on Liversage's and Dale's works, that explicitly include also the dose-rate value and a correction factor of the β parameter depending on the sublethal damage repair time constant, on the length of time of each irradiation and on the time interval between following irradiation for to realize the effect of the incomplete repair when the time interval is short as, for example, in the PLDR. This 'unitary' L-Q model is, of course, usable in the same way both for external beam therapy and for curietherapy and make possible to compute and compare, for each kind of tumour and normal tissue, the relative effect of the different available modality of radiotherapy also with regard to the dose-rate. We show and discuss the resulting relationships of the ratio BED 'late'/BED tumour changing the time-dose parameters and the values of the biological characteristic parameters T p , α/β and μ, for defined size of tumour control and different value of the doserate
Micromechanical modeling of rate-dependent behavior of Connective tissues.

Science.gov (United States)

Fallah, A; Ahmadian, M T; Firozbakhsh, K; Aghdam, M M

2017-03-07

In this paper, a constitutive and micromechanical model for prediction of rate-dependent behavior of connective tissues (CTs) is presented. Connective tissues are considered as nonlinear viscoelastic material. The rate-dependent behavior of CTs is incorporated into model using the well-known quasi-linear viscoelasticity (QLV) theory. A planar wavy representative volume element (RVE) is considered based on the tissue microstructure histological evidences. The presented model parameters are identified based on the available experiments in the literature. The presented constitutive model introduced to ABAQUS by means of UMAT subroutine. Results show that, monotonic uniaxial test predictions of the presented model at different strain rates for rat tail tendon (RTT) and human patellar tendon (HPT) are in good agreement with experimental data. Results of incremental stress-relaxation test are also presented to investigate both instantaneous and viscoelastic behavior of connective tissues. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
DEPENDENCE OF X-RAY BURST MODELS ON NUCLEAR REACTION RATES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cyburt, R. H.; Keek, L.; Schatz, H. [National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Amthor, A. M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Bucknell University, Lewisburg, PA 17837 (United States); Heger, A.; Meisel, Z.; Smith, K. [Joint Institute for Nuclear Astrophysics (JINA), Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Johnson, E. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States)

2016-10-20

X-ray bursts are thermonuclear flashes on the surface of accreting neutron stars, and reliable burst models are needed to interpret observations in terms of properties of the neutron star and the binary system. We investigate the dependence of X-ray burst models on uncertainties in (p, γ ), ( α , γ ), and ( α , p) nuclear reaction rates using fully self-consistent burst models that account for the feedbacks between changes in nuclear energy generation and changes in astrophysical conditions. A two-step approach first identified sensitive nuclear reaction rates in a single-zone model with ignition conditions chosen to match calculations with a state-of-the-art 1D multi-zone model based on the Kepler stellar evolution code. All relevant reaction rates on neutron-deficient isotopes up to mass 106 were individually varied by a factor of 100 up and down. Calculations of the 84 changes in reaction rate with the highest impact were then repeated in the 1D multi-zone model. We find a number of uncertain reaction rates that affect predictions of light curves and burst ashes significantly. The results provide insights into the nuclear processes that shape observables from X-ray bursts, and guidance for future nuclear physics work to reduce nuclear uncertainties in X-ray burst models.
Relative rate study of the kinetic isotope effect in the 13CH3D + Cl reaction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Joelsson, Lars Magnus Torvald; Forecast, Roslyn; Schmidt, Johan Albrecht

2014-01-01

The 13CH3D/12CH4kinetic isotope effect, α13CH3D, of CH4 + Cl is determined for the first time, using the relative rate technique and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. α13CH3D is found to be 1.60 ± 0.04. In addition, a quantum chemistry/transition state theory model with tunneling...
Addition by Subtraction: The Relation Between Dropout Rates and School-Level Academic Achievement.

Science.gov (United States)

Glennie, Elizabeth; Bonneau, Kara; Vandellen, Michelle; Dodge, Kenneth A

2012-01-01

Efforts to improve student achievement should increase graduation rates. However, work investigating the effects of student-level accountability has consistently demonstrated that increases in the standards for high school graduation are correlated with increases in dropout rates. The most favored explanation for this finding is that high-stakes testing policies that mandate grade repetition and high school exit exams may be the tipping point for students who are already struggling academically. These extra demands may, in fact, push students out of school. This article examines two hypotheses regarding the relation between school-level accountability and dropout rates. The first posits that improvements in school performance lead to improved success for everyone. If school-level accountability systems improve a school for all students, then the proportion of students performing at grade level increases, and the dropout rate decreases. The second hypothesis posits that schools facing pressure to improve their overall accountability score may pursue this increase at the cost of other student outcomes, including dropout rate. Our approach focuses on the dynamic relation between school-level academic achievement and dropout rates over time-that is, between one year's achievement and the subsequent year's dropout rate, and vice versa. This article employs longitudinal data of records on all students in North Carolina public schools over an 8-year period. Analyses employ fixed-effects models clustering schools and districts within years and controls each year for school size, percentage of students who were free/reduced-price lunch eligible, percentage of students who are ethnic minorities, and locale. This study finds partial evidence that improvements in school-level academic performance will lead to improvements (i.e., decreases) in school-level dropout rates. Schools with improved performance saw decreased dropout rates following these successes. However, we find
Leak rate models and leak detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

Leak detection may be carried out by a number of detection systems, but selection of the systems must be carefully adapted to the fluid state and the location of the leak in the reactor coolant system. Computer programs for the calculation of leak rates contain different models to take into account the fluid state before its entrance into the crack, and they have to be verified by experiments; agreement between experiments and calculations is generally not satisfactory for very small leak rates resulting from narrow cracks or from a closing bending moment
A Systems Modeling Approach to Forecast Corn Economic Optimum Nitrogen Rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laila A. Puntel

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Historically crop models have been used to evaluate crop yield responses to nitrogen (N rates after harvest when it is too late for the farmers to make in-season adjustments. We hypothesize that the use of a crop model as an in-season forecast tool will improve current N decision-making. To explore this, we used the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM calibrated with long-term experimental data for central Iowa, USA (16-years in continuous corn and 15-years in soybean-corn rotation combined with actual weather data up to a specific crop stage and historical weather data thereafter. The objectives were to: (1 evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of corn yield and economic optimum N rate (EONR predictions at four forecast times (planting time, 6th and 12th leaf, and silking phenological stages; (2 determine whether the use of analogous historical weather years based on precipitation and temperature patterns as opposed to using a 35-year dataset could improve the accuracy of the forecast; and (3 quantify the value added by the crop model in predicting annual EONR and yields using the site-mean EONR and the yield at the EONR to benchmark predicted values. Results indicated that the mean corn yield predictions at planting time (R2 = 0.77 using 35-years of historical weather was close to the observed and predicted yield at maturity (R2 = 0.81. Across all forecasting times, the EONR predictions were more accurate in corn-corn than soybean-corn rotation (relative root mean square error, RRMSE, of 25 vs. 45%, respectively. At planting time, the APSIM model predicted the direction of optimum N rates (above, below or at average site-mean EONR in 62% of the cases examined (n = 31 with an average error range of ±38 kg N ha−1 (22% of the average N rate. Across all forecast times, prediction error of EONR was about three times higher than yield predictions. The use of the 35-year weather record was better than using selected historical weather
A Systems Modeling Approach to Forecast Corn Economic Optimum Nitrogen Rate

Science.gov (United States)

Puntel, Laila A.; Sawyer, John E.; Barker, Daniel W.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Castellano, Michael J.; Moore, Kenneth J.; VanLoocke, Andrew; Heaton, Emily A.; Archontoulis, Sotirios V.

2018-01-01

Historically crop models have been used to evaluate crop yield responses to nitrogen (N) rates after harvest when it is too late for the farmers to make in-season adjustments. We hypothesize that the use of a crop model as an in-season forecast tool will improve current N decision-making. To explore this, we used the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) calibrated with long-term experimental data for central Iowa, USA (16-years in continuous corn and 15-years in soybean-corn rotation) combined with actual weather data up to a specific crop stage and historical weather data thereafter. The objectives were to: (1) evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of corn yield and economic optimum N rate (EONR) predictions at four forecast times (planting time, 6th and 12th leaf, and silking phenological stages); (2) determine whether the use of analogous historical weather years based on precipitation and temperature patterns as opposed to using a 35-year dataset could improve the accuracy of the forecast; and (3) quantify the value added by the crop model in predicting annual EONR and yields using the site-mean EONR and the yield at the EONR to benchmark predicted values. Results indicated that the mean corn yield predictions at planting time (R2 = 0.77) using 35-years of historical weather was close to the observed and predicted yield at maturity (R2 = 0.81). Across all forecasting times, the EONR predictions were more accurate in corn-corn than soybean-corn rotation (relative root mean square error, RRMSE, of 25 vs. 45%, respectively). At planting time, the APSIM model predicted the direction of optimum N rates (above, below or at average site-mean EONR) in 62% of the cases examined (n = 31) with an average error range of ±38 kg N ha−1 (22% of the average N rate). Across all forecast times, prediction error of EONR was about three times higher than yield predictions. The use of the 35-year weather record was better than using selected historical weather years
A Systems Modeling Approach to Forecast Corn Economic Optimum Nitrogen Rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Puntel, Laila A; Sawyer, John E; Barker, Daniel W; Thorburn, Peter J; Castellano, Michael J; Moore, Kenneth J; VanLoocke, Andrew; Heaton, Emily A; Archontoulis, Sotirios V

2018-01-01

Historically crop models have been used to evaluate crop yield responses to nitrogen (N) rates after harvest when it is too late for the farmers to make in-season adjustments. We hypothesize that the use of a crop model as an in-season forecast tool will improve current N decision-making. To explore this, we used the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) calibrated with long-term experimental data for central Iowa, USA (16-years in continuous corn and 15-years in soybean-corn rotation) combined with actual weather data up to a specific crop stage and historical weather data thereafter. The objectives were to: (1) evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of corn yield and economic optimum N rate (EONR) predictions at four forecast times (planting time, 6th and 12th leaf, and silking phenological stages); (2) determine whether the use of analogous historical weather years based on precipitation and temperature patterns as opposed to using a 35-year dataset could improve the accuracy of the forecast; and (3) quantify the value added by the crop model in predicting annual EONR and yields using the site-mean EONR and the yield at the EONR to benchmark predicted values. Results indicated that the mean corn yield predictions at planting time ( R 2 = 0.77) using 35-years of historical weather was close to the observed and predicted yield at maturity ( R 2 = 0.81). Across all forecasting times, the EONR predictions were more accurate in corn-corn than soybean-corn rotation (relative root mean square error, RRMSE, of 25 vs. 45%, respectively). At planting time, the APSIM model predicted the direction of optimum N rates (above, below or at average site-mean EONR) in 62% of the cases examined ( n = 31) with an average error range of ±38 kg N ha -1 (22% of the average N rate). Across all forecast times, prediction error of EONR was about three times higher than yield predictions. The use of the 35-year weather record was better than using selected historical weather
Are Competitive Materialism and Female Employment Related to International Homicide Rate?

Science.gov (United States)

Chon, Don Soo

2017-04-01

The institutional anomie theory is a proposal that states competitive materialism, an intense cultural pressure for economic success at any costs, and increased female employment may be related to a high homicide rate. The current work tested this proposition by utilizing homicide data collected from 45 developed and developing countries. Regression results did not support the proposition. Competitive materialism and female employment were not significantly related to the cross-national variation of homicide rates.
Biomedical Progress Rates as New Parameters for Models of Economic Growth in Developed Countries

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Alex Zhavoronkov

2013-11-01

Full Text Available While the doubling of life expectancy in developed countries during the 20th century can be attributed mostly to decreases in child mortality, the trillions of dollars spent on biomedical research by governments, foundations and corporations over the past sixty years are also yielding longevity dividends in both working and retired population. Biomedical progress will likely increase the healthy productive lifespan and the number of years of government support in the old age. In this paper we introduce several new parameters that can be applied to established models of economic growth: the biomedical progress rate, the rate of clinical adoption and the rate of change in retirement age. The biomedical progress rate is comprised of the rejuvenation rate (extending the productive lifespan and the non-rejuvenating rate (extending the lifespan beyond the age at which the net contribution to the economy becomes negative. While staying within the neoclassical economics framework and extending the overlapping generations (OLG growth model and assumptions from the life cycle theory of saving behavior, we provide an example of the relations between these new parameters in the context of demographics, labor, households and the firm.
Biomedical progress rates as new parameters for models of economic growth in developed countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhavoronkov, Alex; Litovchenko, Maria

2013-11-08

While the doubling of life expectancy in developed countries during the 20th century can be attributed mostly to decreases in child mortality, the trillions of dollars spent on biomedical research by governments, foundations and corporations over the past sixty years are also yielding longevity dividends in both working and retired population. Biomedical progress will likely increase the healthy productive lifespan and the number of years of government support in the old age. In this paper we introduce several new parameters that can be applied to established models of economic growth: the biomedical progress rate, the rate of clinical adoption and the rate of change in retirement age. The biomedical progress rate is comprised of the rejuvenation rate (extending the productive lifespan) and the non-rejuvenating rate (extending the lifespan beyond the age at which the net contribution to the economy becomes negative). While staying within the neoclassical economics framework and extending the overlapping generations (OLG) growth model and assumptions from the life cycle theory of saving behavior, we provide an example of the relations between these new parameters in the context of demographics, labor, households and the firm.
Variation in Primary Cesarean Delivery Rates by Individual Physician within a Single Hospital Laborist Model

Science.gov (United States)

METZ, Torri D.; ALLSHOUSE, Amanda A.; GILBERT, Sara A Babcock; DOYLE, Reina; TONG, Angie; CAREY, J. Christopher

2016-01-01

Background Laborist practice models are associated with lower cesarean delivery rates than individual private practice models in several studies; however, this effect is not uniform. Further exploration of laborist models may help us better understand the observed reduction in cesarean delivery rates in some hospitals with implementation of a laborist model. Objective Our objective was to evaluate the degree of variation in primary cesarean delivery rates by individual laborists within a single institution employing a laborist model. In addition, we sought to evaluate whether differences in cesarean delivery rates resulted in different maternal or short-term neonatal outcomes. Study Design At this teaching institution, one laborist (either a generalist or maternal-fetal medicine attending physician) is directly responsible for labor and delivery management during each shift. No patients are followed in a private practice model nor are physicians incentivized to perform deliveries. We retrospectively identified all laborists who delivered nulliparous, term women with cephalic singletons at this institution from 2007-14. Overall and individual primary cesarean delivery rates were reported as percentages with exact Pearson 95% CI. Laborists were grouped by tertile as having low, medium or high cesarean delivery rates. Characteristics of the women delivered, indications for cesarean delivery, and short-term neonatal outcomes were compared between these groups. A binomial regression model of cesarean delivery was estimated, where the relative rates of each laborist compared to the lowest-unadjusted laborist rate were calculated; a second model was estimated to adjust for patient-level maternal characteristics. Results Twenty laborists delivered 2,224 nulliparous, term women with cephalic singletons. The overall cesarean delivery rate was 24.1% (95% CI 21.4-26.8). In an unadjusted binomial model, the overall effect of individual laborist was significant (pcesarean
"The stone which the builders rejected...": Delay of reinforcement and response rate on fixed-interval and related schedules.

Science.gov (United States)

Wearden, J H; Lejeune, Helga

2006-02-28

The article deals with response rates (mainly running and peak or terminal rates) on simple and on some mixed-FI schedules and explores the idea that these rates are determined by the average delay of reinforcement for responses occurring during the response periods that the schedules generate. The effects of reinforcement delay are assumed to be mediated by a hyperbolic delay of reinforcement gradient. The account predicts that (a) running rates on simple FI schedules should increase with increasing rate of reinforcement, in a manner close to that required by Herrnstein's equation, (b) improving temporal control during acquisition should be associated with increasing running rates, (c) two-valued mixed-FI schedules with equiprobable components should produce complex results, with peak rates sometimes being higher on the longer component schedule, and (d) that effects of reinforcement probability on mixed-FI should affect the response rate at the time of the shorter component only. All these predictions were confirmed by data, although effects in some experiments remain outside the scope of the model. In general, delay of reinforcement as a determinant of response rate on FI and related schedules (rather than temporal control on such schedules) seems a useful starting point for a more thorough analysis of some neglected questions about performance on FI and related schedules.
Linear rate-equilibrium relations arising from ion channel-bilayer energetic coupling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Greisen, Per Junior; Lum, Kevin; Ashrafuzzaman, Md

2011-01-01

Linear rate-equilibrium (RE) relations, also known as linear free energy relations, are widely observed in chemical reactions, including protein folding, enzymatic catalysis, and channel gating. Despite the widespread occurrence of linear RE relations, the principles underlying the linear relatio...
Probabilistic short-term forecasting of eruption rate at Kīlauea Volcano using a physics-based model

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, K. R.

2016-12-01

Deterministic models of volcanic eruptions yield predictions of future activity conditioned on uncertainty in the current state of the system. Physics-based eruption models are well-suited for deterministic forecasting as they can relate magma physics with a wide range of observations. Yet, physics-based eruption forecasting is strongly limited by an inadequate understanding of volcanic systems, and the need for eruption models to be computationally tractable. At Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaii, episodic depressurization-pressurization cycles of the magma system generate correlated, quasi-exponential variations in ground deformation and surface height of the active summit lava lake. Deflations are associated with reductions in eruption rate, or even brief eruptive pauses, and thus partly control lava flow advance rates and associated hazard. Because of the relatively well-understood nature of Kīlauea's shallow magma plumbing system, and because more than 600 of these events have been recorded to date, they offer a unique opportunity to refine a physics-based effusive eruption forecasting approach and apply it to lava eruption rates over short (hours to days) time periods. A simple physical model of the volcano ascribes observed data to temporary reductions in magma supply to an elastic reservoir filled with compressible magma. This model can be used to predict the evolution of an ongoing event, but because the mechanism that triggers events is unknown, event durations are modeled stochastically from previous observations. A Bayesian approach incorporates diverse data sets and prior information to simultaneously estimate uncertain model parameters and future states of the system. Forecasts take the form of probability distributions for eruption rate or cumulative erupted volume at some future time. Results demonstrate the significant uncertainties that still remain even for short-term eruption forecasting at a well-monitored volcano - but also the value of a physics
A four-component model of age-related memory change.

Science.gov (United States)

Healey, M Karl; Kahana, Michael J

2016-01-01

We develop a novel, computationally explicit, theory of age-related memory change within the framework of the context maintenance and retrieval (CMR2) model of memory search. We introduce a set of benchmark findings from the free recall and recognition tasks that include aspects of memory performance that show both age-related stability and decline. We test aging theories by lesioning the corresponding mechanisms in a model fit to younger adult free recall data. When effects are considered in isolation, many theories provide an adequate account, but when all effects are considered simultaneously, the existing theories fail. We develop a novel theory by fitting the full model (i.e., allowing all parameters to vary) to individual participants and comparing the distributions of parameter values for older and younger adults. This theory implicates 4 components: (a) the ability to sustain attention across an encoding episode, (b) the ability to retrieve contextual representations for use as retrieval cues, (c) the ability to monitor retrievals and reject intrusions, and (d) the level of noise in retrieval competitions. We extend CMR2 to simulate a recognition memory task using the same mechanisms the free recall model uses to reject intrusions. Without fitting any additional parameters, the 4-component theory that accounts for age differences in free recall predicts the magnitude of age differences in recognition memory accuracy. Confirming a prediction of the model, free recall intrusion rates correlate positively with recognition false alarm rates. Thus, we provide a 4-component theory of a complex pattern of age differences across 2 key laboratory tasks. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).
Modeling Flow Rate to Estimate Hydraulic Conductivity in a Parabolic Ceramic Water Filter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ileana Wald

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In this project we model volumetric flow rate through a parabolic ceramic water filter (CWF to determine how quickly it can process water while still improving its quality. The volumetric flow rate is dependent upon the pore size of the filter, the surface area, and the height of water in the filter (hydraulic head. We derive differential equations governing this flow from the conservation of mass principle and Darcy's Law and find the flow rate with respect to time. We then use methods of calculus to find optimal specifications for the filter. This work is related to the research conducted in Dr. James R. Mihelcic's Civil and Environmental Engineering Lab at USF.

Modeling and Model Predictive Power and Rate Control of Wireless Communication Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cunwu Han

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A novel power and rate control system model for wireless communication networks is presented, which includes uncertainties, input constraints, and time-varying delays in both state and control input. A robust delay-dependent model predictive power and rate control method is proposed, and the state feedback control law is obtained by solving an optimization problem that is derived by using linear matrix inequality (LMI techniques. Simulation results are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Modeling air pollutant emissions from Indian auto-rickshaws: Model development and implications for fleet emission rate estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Grieshop, Andrew P.; Boland, Daniel; Reynolds, Conor C. O.; Gouge, Brian; Apte, Joshua S.; Rogak, Steven N.; Kandlikar, Milind

2012-04-01

Chassis dynamometer tests were conducted on 40 Indian auto-rickshaws with 3 different fuel-engine combinations operating on the Indian Drive Cycle (IDC). Second-by-second (1 Hz) data were collected and used to develop velocity-acceleration look-up table models for fuel consumption and emissions of CO2, CO, total hydrocarbons (THC), oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for each fuel-engine combination. Models were constructed based on group-average vehicle activity and emissions data in order to represent the performance of a 'typical' vehicle. The models accurately estimated full-cycle emissions for most species, though pollutants with more variable emission rates (e.g., PM2.5) were associated with larger errors. Vehicle emissions data showed large variability for single vehicles ('intra-vehicle variability') and within the test group ('inter-vehicle variability'), complicating the development of a single model to represent a vehicle population. To evaluate the impact of this variability, sensitivity analyses were conducted using vehicle activity data other than the IDC as model input. Inter-vehicle variability dominated the uncertainty in vehicle emission modeling. 'Leave-one-out' analyses indicated that the model outputs were relatively insensitive to the specific sample of vehicles and that the vehicle samples were likely a reasonable representation of the Delhi fleet. Intra-vehicle variability in emissions was also substantial, though had a relatively minor impact on model performance. The models were used to assess whether the IDC, used for emission factor development in India, accurately represents emissions from on-road driving. Modeling based on Global Positioning System (GPS) activity data from real-world auto-rickshaws suggests that, relative to on-road vehicles in Delhi, the IDC systematically under-estimates fuel use and emissions; real-word auto-rickshaws consume 15% more fuel and emit 49% more THC and 16% more PM2.5. The models
A model for C-14 tracer evaporative rate analysis (ERA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gardner, R.P.; Verghese, K.

1993-01-01

A simple model has been derived and tested for the C-14 tracer evaporative rate analysis (ERA) method. It allows the accurate determination of the evaporative rate coefficient of the C-14 tracer detector in the presence of variable evaporation rates of the detector solvent and variable background counting rates. The evaporation rate coefficient should be the most fundamental parameter available in this analysis method and, therefore, its measurements with the proposed model should allow the most direct correlations to be made with the system properties of interest such as surface cleanliness. (author)
Salt marsh stability modelled in relation to sea level rise

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bartholdy, Jesper; Bartholdy, Anders; Kroon, Aart

2010-01-01

thickness. Autocompaction was incorporated in the model, and shown to play a major role for the translation of accretion rates measured as length per unit time to accumulation rates measured as mass per area per unit time. This is important, even for shallow salt marsh deposits for which it is demonstrated...... that mass depth down core can be directly related to the bulk dry density of the surface layer by means of a logarithmic function. The results allow for an evaluation of the use of marker horizons in the topmost layers and show that it is important to know the level of the marker in relation to the salt...... marsh base. In general, deeper located markers will indicate successively smaller accretion rates with the same sediment input. Thus, stability analysis made on the basis of newly established marker horizons will be biased and indicate salt marsh stabilities far above the correct level. Running...
Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ying, Khor Chia; Hin, Pooi Ah

2014-01-01

The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ (j) of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ (j) , we assume that φ (j) depends on φ (j−m) , φ (j−m+1) ,…, φ (j−1) and the interest rate r j+n at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r j+n+1 of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r j+n of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r j+n+d at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters
Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ying, Khor Chia [Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Multimedia University, Jalan Multimedia, 63100 Cyberjaya, Selangor (Malaysia); Hin, Pooi Ah [Sunway University Business School, No. 5, Jalan Universiti, Bandar Sunway, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor (Malaysia)

2014-06-19

The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.
The contagious nature of imprisonment: an agent-based model to explain racial disparities in incarceration rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Lum, Kristian; Swarup, Samarth; Eubank, Stephen; Hawdon, James

2014-09-06

We build an agent-based model of incarceration based on the susceptible-infected-suspectible (SIS) model of infectious disease propagation. Our central hypothesis is that the observed racial disparities in incarceration rates between Black and White Americans can be explained as the result of differential sentencing between the two demographic groups. We demonstrate that if incarceration can be spread through a social influence network, then even relatively small differences in sentencing can result in large disparities in incarceration rates. Controlling for effects of transmissibility, susceptibility and influence network structure, our model reproduces the observed large disparities in incarceration rates given the differences in sentence lengths for White and Black drug offenders in the USA without extensive parameter tuning. We further establish the suitability of the SIS model as applied to incarceration by demonstrating that the observed structural patterns of recidivism are an emergent property of the model. In fact, our model shows a remarkably close correspondence with California incarceration data. This work advances efforts to combine the theories and methods of epidemiology and criminology.
Using field feedback to estimate failure rates of safety-related systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brissaud, Florent

2017-01-01

The IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 functional safety standards encourage the use of field feedback to estimate the failure rates of safety-related systems, which is preferred than generic data. In some cases (if “Route 2_H” is adopted for the 'hardware safety integrity constraints”), this is even a requirement. This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals, depending if the failures are detected on-line (called 'detected failures', e.g. by automatic diagnostic tests) or only revealed by proof tests (called 'undetected failures'). Examples show that for the same duration and number of failures observed, the estimated failure rates are basically higher for “undetected failures” because, in this case, the duration observed includes intervals of time where it is unknown that the elements have failed. This points out the need of using a proper approach for failure rates estimation, especially for failures that are not detected on-line. Then, this paper proposes an approach to use the estimated failure rates, with their uncertainties, for PFDavg and PFH assessment with upper confidence bounds, in accordance with IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 requirements. Examples finally show that the highest SIL that can be claimed for a safety function can be limited by the 90% upper confidence bound of PFDavg or PFH. The requirements of the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 relating to the data collection and analysis should therefore be properly considered for the study of all safety-related systems. - Highlights: • This paper deals with requirements of the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 for using field feedback to estimate failure rates of safety-related systems. • This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals for failures that are detected on-line. • This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals for failures that are only revealed by
A new constitutive model for prediction of impact rates response of polypropylene

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Buckley C.P.

2012-08-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a new constitutive model for predicting the impact rates response of polypropylene. Impact rates, as used here, refer to strain rates greater than 1000 1/s. The model is a physically based, three-dimensional constitutive model which incorporates the contributions of the amorphous, crystalline, pseudo-amorphous and entanglement networks to the constitutive response of polypropylene. The model mathematics is based on the well-known Glass-Rubber model originally developed for glassy polymers but the arguments have herein been extended to semi-crystalline polymers. In order to predict the impact rates behaviour of polypropylene, the model exploits the well-known framework of multiple processes yielding of polymers. This work argues that two dominant viscoelastic relaxation processes – the alpha- and beta-processes – can be associated with the yield responses of polypropylene observed at low-rate-dominant and impact-rates dominant loading regimes. Compression test data on polypropylene have been used to validate the model. The study has found that the model predicts quite well the experimentally observed nonlinear rate-dependent impact response of polypropylene.
Risky forward interest rates and swaptions: Quantum finance model and empirical results

Science.gov (United States)

Baaquie, Belal Ehsan; Yu, Miao; Bhanap, Jitendra

2018-02-01

Risk free forward interest rates (Diebold and Li, 2006 [1]; Jamshidian, 1991 [2 ]) - and their realization by US Treasury bonds as the leading exemplar - have been studied extensively. In Baaquie (2010), models of risk free bonds and their forward interest rates based on the quantum field theoretic formulation of the risk free forward interest rates have been discussed, including the empirical evidence supporting these models. The quantum finance formulation of risk free forward interest rates is extended to the case of risky forward interest rates. The examples of the Singapore and Malaysian forward interest rates are used as specific cases. The main feature of the quantum finance model is that the risky forward interest rates are modeled both a) as a stand-alone case as well as b) being driven by the US forward interest rates plus a spread - having its own term structure -above the US forward interest rates. Both the US forward interest rates and the term structure for the spread are modeled by a two dimensional Euclidean quantum field. As a precursor to the evaluation of put option of the Singapore coupon bond, the quantum finance model for swaptions is tested using empirical study of swaptions for the US Dollar -showing that the model is quite accurate. A prediction for the market price of the put option for the Singapore coupon bonds is obtained. The quantum finance model is generalized to study the Malaysian case and the Malaysian forward interest rates are shown to have anomalies absent for the US and Singapore case. The model's prediction for a Malaysian interest rate swap is obtained.
Modeling the intracellular pathogen-immune interaction with cure rate

Science.gov (United States)

Dubey, Balram; Dubey, Preeti; Dubey, Uma S.

2016-09-01

Many common and emergent infectious diseases like Influenza, SARS, Hepatitis, Ebola etc. are caused by viral pathogens. These infections can be controlled or prevented by understanding the dynamics of pathogen-immune interaction in vivo. In this paper, interaction of pathogens with uninfected and infected cells in presence or absence of immune response are considered in four different cases. In the first case, the model considers the saturated nonlinear infection rate and linear cure rate without absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells and without immune response. The next model considers the effect of absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells while all other terms are same as in the first case. The third model incorporates innate immune response, humoral immune response and Cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) mediated immune response with cure rate and without absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells. The last model is an extension of the third model in which the effect of absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells has been considered. Positivity and boundedness of solutions are established to ensure the well-posedness of the problem. It has been found that all the four models have two equilibria, namely, pathogen-free equilibrium point and pathogen-present equilibrium point. In each case, stability analysis of each equilibrium point is investigated. Pathogen-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when basic reproduction number is less or equal to unity. This implies that control or prevention of infection is independent of initial concentration of uninfected cells, infected cells, pathogens and immune responses in the body. The proposed models show that introduction of immune response and cure rate strongly affects the stability behavior of the system. Further, on computing basic reproduction number, it has been found to be minimum for the fourth model vis-a-vis other models. The analytical findings of each model have been exemplified by
Martingale Regressions for a Continuous Time Model of Exchange Rates

OpenAIRE

Guo, Zi-Yi

2017-01-01

One of the daunting problems in international finance is the weak explanatory power of existing theories of the nominal exchange rates, the so-called “foreign exchange rate determination puzzle”. We propose a continuous-time model to study the impact of order flow on foreign exchange rates. The model is estimated by a newly developed econometric tool based on a time-change sampling from calendar to volatility time. The estimation results indicate that the effect of order flow on exchange rate...
Vapor generation rate model for dispersed drop flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unal, C.; Tuzla, K.; Cokmez-Tuzla, A.F.; Chen, J.C.

1991-01-01

A comparison of predictions of existing nonequilibrium post-CHF heat transfer models with the recently obtained rod bundle data has been performed. The models used the experimental conditions and wall temperatures to predict the heat flux and vapor temperatures at the location of interest. No existing model was able to reasonably predict the vapor superheat and the wall heat flux simultaneously. Most of the models, except Chen-Sundaram-Ozkaynak, failed to predict the wall heat flux, while all of the models could not predict the vapor superheat data or trends. A recently developed two-region heat transfer model, the Webb-Chen two-region model, did not give a reasonable prediction of the vapor generation rate in the far field of the CHF point. A new correlation was formulated to predict the vapor generation rate in convective dispersed droplet flow in terms of thermal-hydraulic parameters and thermodynamic properties. A comparison of predictions of the two-region heat transfer model, with the use of a presently developed correlation, with all the existing post-CHF data, including single-tube and rod bundle, showed significant improvements in predicting the vapor superheat and tube wall heat flux trends. (orig.)
Extension of the master sintering curve for constant heating rate modeling

Science.gov (United States)

McCoy, Tammy Michelle

The purpose of this work is to extend the functionality of the Master Sintering Curve (MSC) such that it can be used as a practical tool for predicting sintering schemes that combine both a constant heating rate and an isothermal hold. Rather than just being able to predict a final density for the object of interest, the extension to the MSC will actually be able to model a sintering run from start to finish. Because the Johnson model does not incorporate this capability, the work presented is an extension of what has already been shown in literature to be a valuable resource in many sintering situations. A predicted sintering curve that incorporates a combination of constant heating rate and an isothermal hold is more indicative of what is found in real-life sintering operations. This research offers the possibility of predicting the sintering schedule for a material, thereby having advanced information about the extent of sintering, the time schedule for sintering, and the sintering temperature with a high degree of accuracy and repeatability. The research conducted in this thesis focuses on the development of a working model for predicting the sintering schedules of several stabilized zirconia powders having the compositions YSZ (HSY8), 10Sc1CeSZ, 10Sc1YSZ, and 11ScSZ1A. The compositions of the four powders are first verified using x-ray diffraction (XRD) and the particle size and surface area are verified using a particle size analyzer and BET analysis, respectively. The sintering studies were conducted on powder compacts using a double pushrod dilatometer. Density measurements are obtained both geometrically and using the Archimedes method. Each of the four powders is pressed into ¼" diameter pellets using a manual press with no additives, such as a binder or lubricant. Using a double push-rod dilatometer, shrinkage data for the pellets is obtained over several different heating rates. The shrinkage data is then converted to reflect the change in relative
Data analysis using the Binomial Failure Rate common cause model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atwood, C.L.

1983-09-01

This report explains how to use the Binomial Failure Rate (BFR) method to estimate common cause failure rates. The entire method is described, beginning with the conceptual model, and covering practical issues of data preparation, treatment of variation in the failure rates, Bayesian estimation of the quantities of interest, checking the model assumptions for lack of fit to the data, and the ultimate application of the answers
Constitutive modeling of rate dependence and microinertia effects in porous-plastic materials with multi-sized voids (MSVs)

KAUST Repository

Liu, Jinxing

2012-11-27

Micro-voids of varying sizes exist in most metals and alloys. Both experiments and numerical studies have demonstrated the critical influence of initial void sizes on void growth. The classical Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman model summarizes the influence of voids with a single parameter, namely the void-volume fraction, excluding any possible effects of the void-size distribution. We extend our newly proposed model including the multi-sized void (MSV) effect and the void-interaction effect for the capability of working for both moderate and high loading rate cases, where either rate dependence or microinertia becomes considerable or even dominant. Parametric studies show that the MSV-related competitive mechanism among void growth leads to the dependence of the void growth rate on void size, which directly influences the void\\'s contribution to the total energy composition. We finally show that the stress-strain constitutive behavior is also affected by this MSV-related competitive mechanism. The stabilizing effect due to rate sensitivity and microinertia is emphasized. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.
Modeling the bathtub shape hazard rate function in terms of reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, K.S.; Hsu, F.S.; Liu, P.P.

2002-01-01

In this paper, a general form of bathtub shape hazard rate function is proposed in terms of reliability. The degradation of system reliability comes from different failure mechanisms, in particular those related to (1) random failures, (2) cumulative damage, (3) man-machine interference, and (4) adaptation. The first item is referred to the modeling of unpredictable failures in a Poisson process, i.e. it is shown by a constant. Cumulative damage emphasizes the failures owing to strength deterioration and therefore the possibility of system sustaining the normal operation load decreases with time. It depends on the failure probability, 1-R. This representation denotes the memory characteristics of the second failure cause. Man-machine interference may lead to a positive effect in the failure rate due to learning and correction, or negative from the consequence of human inappropriate habit in system operations, etc. It is suggested that this item is correlated to the reliability, R, as well as the failure probability. Adaptation concerns with continuous adjusting between the mating subsystems. When a new system is set on duty, some hidden defects are explored and disappeared eventually. Therefore, the reliability decays combined with decreasing failure rate, which is expressed as a power of reliability. Each of these phenomena brings about the failures independently and is described by an additive term in the hazard rate function h(R), thus the overall failure behavior governed by a number of parameters is found by fitting the evidence data. The proposed model is meaningful in capturing the physical phenomena occurring during the system lifetime and provides for simpler and more effective parameter fitting than the usually adopted 'bathtub' procedures. Five examples of different type of failure mechanisms are taken in the validation of the proposed model. Satisfactory results are found from the comparisons
A Model for High-Strain-Rate Deformation of Uranium-Niobium Alloys

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

F.L.Addessio; Q.H.Zuo; T.A.Mason; L.C.Brinson

2003-05-01

A thermodynamic approach is used to develop a framework for modeling uranium-niobium alloys under the conditions of high strain rate. Using this framework, a three-dimensional phenomenological model, which includes nonlinear elasticity (equation of state), phase transformation, crystal reorientation, rate-dependent plasticity, and porosity growth is presented. An implicit numerical technique is used to solve the evolution equations for the material state. Comparisons are made between the model and data for low-strain-rate loading and unloading as well as for heating and cooling experiments. Comparisons of the model and data also are made for low- and high-strain-rate uniaxial stress and uniaxial strain experiments. A uranium-6 weight percent niobium alloy is used in the comparisons of model and experiment.
Rate-control algorithms testing by using video source model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Belyaev, Evgeny; Turlikov, Andrey; Ukhanova, Anna

2008-01-01

In this paper the method of rate control algorithms testing by the use of video source model is suggested. The proposed method allows to significantly improve algorithms testing over the big test set.......In this paper the method of rate control algorithms testing by the use of video source model is suggested. The proposed method allows to significantly improve algorithms testing over the big test set....
Building a better methane generation model: Validating models with methane recovery rates from 35 Canadian landfills.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Shirley; Sawyer, Jennifer; Bonam, Rathan; Valdivia, J E

2009-07-01

The German EPER, TNO, Belgium, LandGEM, and Scholl Canyon models for estimating methane production were compared to methane recovery rates for 35 Canadian landfills, assuming that 20% of emissions were not recovered. Two different fractions of degradable organic carbon (DOC(f)) were applied in all models. Most models performed better when the DOC(f) was 0.5 compared to 0.77. The Belgium, Scholl Canyon, and LandGEM version 2.01 models produced the best results of the existing models with respective mean absolute errors compared to methane generation rates (recovery rates + 20%) of 91%, 71%, and 89% at 0.50 DOC(f) and 171%, 115%, and 81% at 0.77 DOC(f). The Scholl Canyon model typically overestimated methane recovery rates and the LandGEM version 2.01 model, which modifies the Scholl Canyon model by dividing waste by 10, consistently underestimated methane recovery rates; this comparison suggested that modifying the divisor for waste in the Scholl Canyon model between one and ten could improve its accuracy. At 0.50 DOC(f) and 0.77 DOC(f) the modified model had the lowest absolute mean error when divided by 1.5 yielding 63 +/- 45% and 2.3 yielding 57 +/- 47%, respectively. These modified models reduced error and variability substantially and both have a strong correlation of r = 0.92.

A Constitutive Model for Superelastic Shape Memory Alloys Considering the Influence of Strain Rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hui Qian

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Shape memory alloys (SMAs are a relatively new class of functional materials, exhibiting special thermomechanical behaviors, such as shape memory effect and superelasticity, which enable their applications in seismic engineering as energy dissipation devices. This paper investigates the properties of superelastic NiTi shape memory alloys, emphasizing the influence of strain rate on superelastic behavior under various strain amplitudes by cyclic tensile tests. A novel constitutive equation based on Graesser and Cozzarelli’s model is proposed to describe the strain-rate-dependent hysteretic behavior of superelastic SMAs at different strain levels. A stress variable including the influence of strain rate is introduced into Graesser and Cozzarelli’s model. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed constitutive equation, experiments on superelastic NiTi wires with different strain rates and strain levels are conducted. Numerical simulation results based on the proposed constitutive equation and experimental results are in good agreement. The findings in this paper will assist the future design of superelastic SMA-based energy dissipation devices for seismic protection of structures.
Modeling emission rates and exposures from outdoor cooking

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Rufus; Princevac, Marko; Weltman, Robert; Ghasemian, Masoud; Arora, Narendra K.; Bond, Tami

2017-09-01

Approximately 3 billion individuals rely on solid fuels for cooking globally. For a large portion of these - an estimated 533 million - cooking is outdoors, where emissions from cookstoves pose a health risk to both cooks and other household and village members. Models that estimate emissions rates from stoves in indoor environments that would meet WHO air quality guidelines (AQG), explicitly don't account for outdoor cooking. The objectives of this paper are to link health based exposure guidelines with emissions from outdoor cookstoves, using a Monte Carlo simulation of cooking times from Haryana India coupled with inverse Gaussian dispersion models. Mean emission rates for outdoor cooking that would result in incremental increases in personal exposure equivalent to the WHO AQG during a 24-h period were 126 ± 13 mg/min for cooking while squatting and 99 ± 10 mg/min while standing. Emission rates modeled for outdoor cooking are substantially higher than emission rates for indoor cooking to meet AQG, because the models estimate impact of emissions on personal exposure concentrations rather than microenvironment concentrations, and because the smoke disperses more readily outdoors compared to indoor environments. As a result, many more stoves including the best performing solid-fuel biomass stoves would meet AQG when cooking outdoors, but may also result in substantial localized neighborhood pollution depending on housing density. Inclusion of the neighborhood impact of pollution should be addressed more formally both in guidelines on emissions rates from stoves that would be protective of health, and also in wider health impact evaluation efforts and burden of disease estimates. Emissions guidelines should better represent the different contexts in which stoves are being used, especially because in these contexts the best performing solid fuel stoves have the potential to provide significant benefits.
An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-10-15

Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole.
An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I.

2013-01-01

Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole
Steady State Investigations of DPF Soot Burn Rates and DPF Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cordtz, Rasmus Lage; Ivarsson, Anders; Schramm, Jesper

2011-01-01

and soot mass concentrations are used as model boundary conditions. An in-house developed raw exhaust gas sampling technique is used to measure the soot concentration upstream the DPF which is also needed to find the DPF soot burn rate. The soot concentration is measured basically by filtering the soot...... characteristics are used to fit model constants of soot and filter properties. Measured DPF gas conversions and soot burn rates are used to fit model activation energies of four DPF regeneration reactions using O2 and NO2 as reactants. Modeled DPF pressure drops and soot burn rates are compared to the steady...... state DPF experiments in the temperature range between 260 and 480 °C. The model widely reproduces the experimental results. Especially the exponential soot burn rate versus temperature is accurately reproduced by the model....
Factors Associated with Asthma ED Visit Rates among Medicaid-enrolled Children: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luceta McRoy

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Background: Asthma is one of the leading causes of emergency department visits and school absenteeism among school-aged children in the United States, but there is significant local-area variation in emergency department visit rates, as well as significant differences across racial-ethnic groups. Analysis: We first calculated emergency department (ED visit rates among Medicaid-enrolled children age 5–12 with asthma using a multi-state dataset. We then performed exploratory factor analysis using over 226 variables to assess whether they clustered around three county-level conceptual factors (socioeconomic status, healthcare capacity, and air quality thought to be associated with variation in asthma ED visit rates. Measured variables (including ED visit rate as the outcome of interest were then standardized and tested in a simple conceptual model through confirmatory factor analysis. Results: County-level (contextual variables did cluster around factors declared a priori in the conceptual model. Structural equation models connecting the ED visit rates to socioeconomic status, air quality, and healthcare system professional capacity factors (consistent with our conceptual framework converged on a solution and achieved a reasonable goodness of fit on confirmatory factor analysis. Conclusion: Confirmatory factor analysis offers an approach for quantitatively testing conceptual models of local-area variation and racial disparities in asthma-related emergency department use.
Addition by Subtraction: The Relation Between Dropout Rates and School-Level Academic Achievement

Science.gov (United States)

GLENNIE, ELIZABETH; BONNEAU, KARA; VANDELLEN, MICHELLE; DODGE, KENNETH A.

2013-01-01

Background/Context Efforts to improve student achievement should increase graduation rates. However, work investigating the effects of student-level accountability has consistently demonstrated that increases in the standards for high school graduation are correlated with increases in dropout rates. The most favored explanation for this finding is that high-stakes testing policies that mandate grade repetition and high school exit exams may be the tipping point for students who are already struggling academically. These extra demands may, in fact, push students out of school. Purpose/Objective/Focus This article examines two hypotheses regarding the relation between school-level accountability and dropout rates. The first posits that improvements in school performance lead to improved success for everyone. If school-level accountability systems improve a school for all students, then the proportion of students performing at grade level increases, and the dropout rate decreases. The second hypothesis posits that schools facing pressure to improve their overall accountability score may pursue this increase at the cost of other student outcomes, including dropout rate. Research Design Our approach focuses on the dynamic relation between school-level academic achievement and dropout rates over time—that is, between one year’s achievement and the subsequent year’s dropout rate, and vice versa. This article employs longitudinal data of records on all students in North Carolina public schools over an 8-year period. Analyses employ fixed-effects models clustering schools and districts within years and controls each year for school size, percentage of students who were free/reduced-price lunch eligible, percentage of students who are ethnic minorities, and locale. Findings/Results This study finds partial evidence that improvements in school-level academic performance will lead to improvements (i.e., decreases) in school-level dropout rates. Schools with improved
Oracle posterior rates in the White Noise Model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Babenko, A.

2010-01-01

All the results about posterior rates obtained until now are related to the optimal (minimax) rates for the estimation problem over the corresponding nonparametric smoothness classes, i.e. of a global nature. In the meantime, a new local approach to optimality has been developed within the
Prediction of pipeline corrosion rate based on grey Markov models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Yonghong; Zhang Dafa; Peng Guichu; Wang Yuemin

2009-01-01

Based on the model that combined by grey model and Markov model, the prediction of corrosion rate of nuclear power pipeline was studied. Works were done to improve the grey model, and the optimization unbiased grey model was obtained. This new model was used to predict the tendency of corrosion rate, and the Markov model was used to predict the residual errors. In order to improve the prediction precision, rolling operation method was used in these prediction processes. The results indicate that the improvement to the grey model is effective and the prediction precision of the new model combined by the optimization unbiased grey model and Markov model is better, and the use of rolling operation method may improve the prediction precision further. (authors)
On cross-currency models with stochastic volatility and correlated interest rates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grzelak, L.A.; Oosterlee, C.W.

2010-01-01

We construct multi-currency models with stochastic volatility and correlated stochastic interest rates with a full matrix of correlations. We first deal with a foreign exchange (FX) model of Heston-type, in which the domestic and foreign interest rates are generated by the short-rate process of
Improving Rice Modeling Success Rate with Ternary Non-structural Fertilizer Response Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Juan; Zhang, Mingqing; Chen, Fang; Yao, Baoquan

2018-06-13

Fertilizer response modelling is an important technical approach to realize metrological fertilization on rice. With the goal of solving the problems of a low success rate of a ternary quadratic polynomial model (TPFM) and to expand the model's applicability, this paper established a ternary non-structural fertilizer response model (TNFM) based on the experimental results from N, P and K fertilized rice fields. Our research results showed that the TNFM significantly improved the modelling success rate by addressing problems arising from setting the bias and multicollinearity in a TPFM. The results from 88 rice field trials in China indicated that the proportion of typical TNFMs that satisfy the general fertilizer response law of plant nutrition was 40.9%, while the analogous proportion of TPFMs was only 26.1%. The recommended fertilization showed a significant positive linear correlation between the two models, and the parameters N 0 , P 0 and K 0 that estimated the value of soil supplying nutrient equivalents can be used as better indicators of yield potential in plots where no N or P or K fertilizer was applied. The theoretical analysis showed that the new model has a higher fitting accuracy and a wider application range.
Evaluating the Impact of Prescription Fill Rates on Risk Stratification Model Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Hsien-Yen; Richards, Thomas M; Shermock, Kenneth M; Elder Dalpoas, Stacy; J Kan, Hong; Alexander, G Caleb; Weiner, Jonathan P; Kharrazi, Hadi

2017-12-01

Risk adjustment models are traditionally derived from administrative claims. Prescription fill rates-extracted by comparing electronic health record prescriptions and pharmacy claims fills-represent a novel measure of medication adherence and may improve the performance of risk adjustment models. We evaluated the impact of prescription fill rates on claims-based risk adjustment models in predicting both concurrent and prospective costs and utilization. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 43,097 primary care patients from HealthPartners network between 2011 and 2012. Diagnosis and/or pharmacy claims of 2011 were used to build 3 base models using the Johns Hopkins ACG system, in addition to demographics. Model performances were compared before and after adding 3 types of prescription fill rates: primary 0-7 days, primary 0-30 days, and overall. Overall fill rates utilized all ordered prescriptions from electronic health record while primary fill rates excluded refill orders. The overall, primary 0-7, and 0-30 days fill rates were 72.30%, 59.82%, and 67.33%. The fill rates were similar between sexes but varied across different medication classifications, whereas the youngest had the highest rate. Adding fill rates modestly improved the performance of all models in explaining medical costs (improving concurrent R by 1.15% to 2.07%), followed by total costs (0.58% to 1.43%), and pharmacy costs (0.07% to 0.65%). The impact was greater for concurrent costs compared with prospective costs. Base models without diagnosis information showed the highest improvement using prescription fill rates. Prescription fill rates can modestly enhance claims-based risk prediction models; however, population-level improvements in predicting utilization are limited.
Comprehensive analyses of ventricular myocyte models identify targets exhibiting favorable rate dependence.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Megan A Cummins

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Reverse rate dependence is a problematic property of antiarrhythmic drugs that prolong the cardiac action potential (AP. The prolongation caused by reverse rate dependent agents is greater at slow heart rates, resulting in both reduced arrhythmia suppression at fast rates and increased arrhythmia risk at slow rates. The opposite property, forward rate dependence, would theoretically overcome these parallel problems, yet forward rate dependent (FRD antiarrhythmics remain elusive. Moreover, there is evidence that reverse rate dependence is an intrinsic property of perturbations to the AP. We have addressed the possibility of forward rate dependence by performing a comprehensive analysis of 13 ventricular myocyte models. By simulating populations of myocytes with varying properties and analyzing population results statistically, we simultaneously predicted the rate-dependent effects of changes in multiple model parameters. An average of 40 parameters were tested in each model, and effects on AP duration were assessed at slow (0.2 Hz and fast (2 Hz rates. The analysis identified a variety of FRD ionic current perturbations and generated specific predictions regarding their mechanisms. For instance, an increase in L-type calcium current is FRD when this is accompanied by indirect, rate-dependent changes in slow delayed rectifier potassium current. A comparison of predictions across models identified inward rectifier potassium current and the sodium-potassium pump as the two targets most likely to produce FRD AP prolongation. Finally, a statistical analysis of results from the 13 models demonstrated that models displaying minimal rate-dependent changes in AP shape have little capacity for FRD perturbations, whereas models with large shape changes have considerable FRD potential. This can explain differences between species and between ventricular cell types. Overall, this study provides new insights, both specific and general, into the determinants of
Culture-related service expectations: a comparative study using the Kano model.

Science.gov (United States)

Hejaili, Fayez F; Assad, Lina; Shaheen, Faissal A; Moussa, Dujana H; Karkar, Ayman; AlRukhaimi, Mona; Barhamein, Majdah; Al Suwida, Abdulkareem; Al Alhejaili, Faris F; Al Harbi, Ali S; Al Homrany, Mohamed; Attar, Bisher; Al-Sayyari, Abdulla A

2009-01-01

To compare service expectations between Arab and Austrian patients. We used a Kano model-based questionnaire with 20 service attributes of relevance to the dialysis patient. We analyzed 530, 172, 60, and 68 responses from Saudi, Austrian, Syrian, and UAE patients, respectively. We compared the customer satisfaction coefficient and the frequencies of response categories ("must be," "attractive," "one-dimensional," and "indifferent") for each of the 20 service attributes and in each of the 3 national groups of patients. We also investigated whether any differences seen were related to sex, age, literacy rate, or duration on dialysis. We observed higher satisfaction coefficients and "one-directional" responses among Arab patients and higher dissatisfaction coefficients and "must be" and "attractive" responses among Austrian patients. These were not related to age or duration on dialysis but were related to literacy rate. We speculate that these discrepancies between Austrian and Arab patients might be related to underdeveloped sophistication in market competitive forces and to cultural influences.
Improved air ventilation rate estimation based on a statistical model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brabec, M.; Jilek, K.

2004-01-01

A new approach to air ventilation rate estimation from CO measurement data is presented. The approach is based on a state-space dynamic statistical model, allowing for quick and efficient estimation. Underlying computations are based on Kalman filtering, whose practical software implementation is rather easy. The key property is the flexibility of the model, allowing various artificial regimens of CO level manipulation to be treated. The model is semi-parametric in nature and can efficiently handle time-varying ventilation rate. This is a major advantage, compared to some of the methods which are currently in practical use. After a formal introduction of the statistical model, its performance is demonstrated on real data from routine measurements. It is shown how the approach can be utilized in a more complex situation of major practical relevance, when time-varying air ventilation rate and radon entry rate are to be estimated simultaneously from concurrent radon and CO measurements
Affinity functions for modeling glass dissolution rates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bourcier, W.L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

1997-07-01

Glass dissolution rates decrease dramatically as glass approach ''saturation'' with respect to the leachate solution. Most repository sites are chosen where water fluxes are minimal, and therefore the waste glass is most likely to dissolve under conditions close to ''saturation''. The key term in the rate expression used to predict glass dissolution rates close to ''saturation'' is the affinity term, which accounts for saturation effects on dissolution rates. Interpretations of recent experimental data on the dissolution behaviour of silicate glasses and silicate minerals indicate the following: 1) simple affinity control does not explain the observed dissolution rate for silicate minerals or glasses; 2) dissolution rates can be significantly modified by dissolved cations even under conditions far from saturation where the affinity term is near unity; 3) the effects of dissolved species such as Al and Si on the dissolution rate vary with pH, temperature, and saturation state; and 4) as temperature is increased, the effect of both pH and temperature on glass and mineral dissolution rates decrease, which strongly suggests a switch in rate control from surface reaction-based to diffusion control. Borosilicate glass dissolution models need to be upgraded to account for these recent experimental observations. (A.C.)
Multi-target QSPR modeling for simultaneous prediction of multiple gas-phase kinetic rate constants of diverse chemicals

Science.gov (United States)

Basant, Nikita; Gupta, Shikha

2018-03-01

The reactions of molecular ozone (O3), hydroxyl (•OH) and nitrate (NO3) radicals are among the major pathways of removal of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the atmospheric environment. The gas-phase kinetic rate constants (kO3, kOH, kNO3) are thus, important in assessing the ultimate fate and exposure risk of atmospheric VOCs. Experimental data for rate constants are not available for many emerging VOCs and the computational methods reported so far address a single target modeling only. In this study, we have developed a multi-target (mt) QSPR model for simultaneous prediction of multiple kinetic rate constants (kO3, kOH, kNO3) of diverse organic chemicals considering an experimental data set of VOCs for which values of all the three rate constants are available. The mt-QSPR model identified and used five descriptors related to the molecular size, degree of saturation and electron density in a molecule, which were mechanistically interpretable. These descriptors successfully predicted three rate constants simultaneously. The model yielded high correlations (R2 = 0.874-0.924) between the experimental and simultaneously predicted endpoint rate constant (kO3, kOH, kNO3) values in test arrays for all the three systems. The model also passed all the stringent statistical validation tests for external predictivity. The proposed multi-target QSPR model can be successfully used for predicting reactivity of new VOCs simultaneously for their exposure risk assessment.
Measuring Math Anxiety (in Spanish) with the Rasch Rating Scale Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Prieto, Gerardo; Delgado, Ana R

2007-01-01

Two successive studies probed the psychometric properties of a Math Anxiety questionnaire (in Spanish) by means of the Rasch Rating Scale Model. Participants were 411 and 216 Spanish adolescents. Convergent validity was examined by correlating the scale with both the Fennema and Sherman Attitude Scale and a math achievement test. The results show that the scores are psychometrically appropriate, and replicate those reported in meta-analyses: medium-sized negative correlations with achievement and with attitudes toward mathematics, as well as moderate sex-related differences (with girls presenting higher anxiety levels than boys).
Calcitonin gene-related peptide alters the firing rates of hypothalamic temperature sensitive and insensitive neurons

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grimm Eleanor R

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Transient hyperthermic shifts in body temperature have been linked to the endogenous hormone calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP, which can increase sympathetic activation and metabolic heat production. Recent studies have demonstrated that these centrally mediated responses may result from CGRP dependent changes in the activity of thermoregulatory neurons in the preoptic and anterior regions of the hypothalamus (POAH. Results Using a tissue slice preparation, we recorded the single-unit activity of POAH neurons from the adult male rat, in response to temperature and CGRP (10 μM. Based on the slope of firing rate as a function of temperature, neurons were classified as either warm sensitive or temperature insensitive. All warm sensitive neurons responded to CGRP with a significant decrease in firing rate. While CGRP did not alter the firing rates of some temperature insensitive neurons, responsive neurons showed an increase in firing rate. Conclusion With respect to current models of thermoregulatory control, these CGRP dependent changes in firing rate would result in hyperthermia. This suggests that both warm sensitive and temperature insensitive neurons in the POAH may play a role in producing this hyperthermic shift in temperature.
Entropic Constitutive Relation and Modeling for Fourier and Hyperbolic Heat Conductions

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Shu-Nan Li

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Most existing phenomenological heat conduction models are expressed by temperature and heat flux distributions, whose definitions might be debatable in heat conductions with strong non-equilibrium. The constitutive relations of Fourier and hyperbolic heat conductions are here rewritten by the entropy and entropy flux distributions in the frameworks of classical irreversible thermodynamics (CIT and extended irreversible thermodynamics (EIT. The entropic constitutive relations are then generalized by Boltzmann–Gibbs–Shannon (BGS statistical mechanics, which can avoid the debatable definitions of thermodynamic quantities relying on local equilibrium. It shows a possibility of modeling heat conduction through entropic constitutive relations. The applicability of the generalizations by BGS statistical mechanics is also discussed based on the relaxation time approximation, and it is found that the generalizations require a sufficiently small entropy production rate.

Testing Hypotheses in an I(2) Model with Applications to the Persistent Long Swings in the Dmk/$ Rate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Søren; Juselius, Katarina; Frydman, Roman

and persistent swings in the foreign exchange market between Germany and USA. The data analyzed consist of nominal exchange rates, relative prices, US inflation rate, two long-term interest rates and two short-term interest rates over the 1975-1999 period. One important aim of the paper is to demonstrate...... that by structuring the data with the help of the I(2) model one can achieve a better understanding of the empirical regularities underlying the persistent swings in nominal exchange rates, typical in periods of floating exchange rates...
Incorporating a Time Horizon in Rate-of-Return Estimations: Discounted Cash Flow Model in Electric Transmission Rate Cases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chatterjee, Bishu; Sharp, Peter A.

2006-01-01

Electric transmission and other rate cases use a form of the discounted cash flow model with a single long-term growth rate to estimate rates of return on equity. It cannot incorporate information about the appropriate time horizon for which analysts' estimates of earnings growth have predictive powers. Only a non-constant growth model can explicitly recognize the importance of the time horizon in an ROE calculation. (author)
Rate dependent inelastic behavior of polycrystalline solids using a dislocation model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Werne, R.W.; Kelly, J.M.

1980-01-01

A rate dependent theory of polycrystalline plasticity is presented in which the solid is modeled as an isotropic continuum with internal variables. The rate of plastic deformation is shown to be a function of the deviatoric portion of the Cauchy stress tensor as well as two scalar internal variables. The scalar internal variables, which are the dislocation density and mobile fraction, are governed by rate equations which reflect the evolution of microstructural processes. The model has been incorporated into a two dimensional finite element code and several example multidimensional problems are presented which exhibit the rate dependence of the material model
Death Rates in the Calorie Model

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Martin Machay

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The Calorie model unifies the Classical demand and the supply in the food market. Hence, solves the major problem of Classical stationary state. It is, hence, formalization of the Classical theory of population. The model does not reflect the imperfections of reality mentioned by Malthus himself. It is the aim of this brief paper to relax some of the strong assumptions of the Calorie model to make it more realistic. As the results show the political economists were correct. The death resulting from malnutrition can occur way sooner than the stationary state itself. Moreover, progressive and retrograde movements can be easily described by the death rate derived in the paper. JEL Classification: J11, Q11, Q15, Q21, Y90.
Pipe fracture evaluations for leak-rate detection: Probabilistic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahman, S.; Wilkowski, G.; Ghadiali, N.

1993-01-01

This is the second in series of three papers generated from studies on nuclear pipe fracture evaluations for leak-rate detection. This paper focuses on the development of novel probabilistic models for stochastic performance evaluation of degraded nuclear piping systems. It was accomplished here in three distinct stages. First, a statistical analysis was conducted to characterize various input variables for thermo-hydraulic analysis and elastic-plastic fracture mechanics, such as material properties of pipe, crack morphology variables, and location of cracks found in nuclear piping. Second, a new stochastic model was developed to evaluate performance of degraded piping systems. It is based on accurate deterministic models for thermo-hydraulic and fracture mechanics analyses described in the first paper, statistical characterization of various input variables, and state-of-the-art methods of modem structural reliability theory. From this model. the conditional probability of failure as a function of leak-rate detection capability of the piping systems can be predicted. Third, a numerical example was presented to illustrate the proposed model for piping reliability analyses. Results clearly showed that the model provides satisfactory estimates of conditional failure probability with much less computational effort when compared with those obtained from Monte Carlo simulation. The probabilistic model developed in this paper will be applied to various piping in boiling water reactor and pressurized water reactor plants for leak-rate detection applications
Heart rate variability in sleep-related migraine without aura.

Science.gov (United States)

Vollono, Catello; Gnoni, Valentina; Testani, Elisa; Dittoni, Serena; Losurdo, Anna; Colicchio, Salvatore; Di Blasi, Chiara; Mazza, Salvatore; Farina, Benedetto; Della Marca, Giacomo

2013-07-15

This is an observational study aimed to investigate the activity of autonomic nervous system during sleep in patients with sleep-related migraine. Eight consecutive migraineurs without aura were enrolled (6 women and 2 men), aged 30 to 62 years (mean 48.1 ± 9.3 years). Inclusion criteria were: high frequency of attacks (> 5 per month) and occurrence of more than 75% of the attacks during sleep causing an awakening. Patients were compared with a control group of 55 healthy subjects (23 men and 32 women, mean age 54.2 ± 13.0 years), and with a further control group of 8 age- and gender-matched healthy controls. Patient and controls underwent polysomnography and heart rate variability analysis. A significant reduction of the LF/HF ratio during N2 and N3 sleep stages was observed in migraineurs compared with controls. No differences in sleep macrostructure were observed; cyclic alternating pattern (CAP) time and CAP rate were lower in migraineurs than in controls. These findings indicate a peculiar modification of the autonomic balance during sleep in sleep-related migraine. The reduction of LF/HF ratio in NREM sleep was observed in controls, but it was quantitatively much more evident in migraineurs. Changes in LF/HF could be consequent to an autonomic unbalance which could manifest selectively (or alternatively become more evident) during sleep. These findings, together with the reduction in CAP rate, could be an expression of reduced arousability during sleep in patients with sleep-related migraine. The simultaneous involvement of the autonomic, arousal, and pain systems might suggest involvement of the hypothalamic pathways.
Constitutive Relation of Engineering Material Based on SIR Model and HAM

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Haoxiang He

2014-01-01

Full Text Available As an epidemic mathematical model, the SIR model represents the transition of the Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered. The profound implication of the SIR model is viewed as the propagation and dynamic evolutionary process of the different internal components and the characteristics in a complex system subject to external effect. The uniaxial stress-strain curve of engineering material represents the basic constitutive relation, which also represents the damage propagation in the units of the damaged member. Hence, a novel dynamic stress-strain model is established based on the SIR model. The analytical solution and the approximate solution for the proposed model are represented according to the homotopy analysis method (HAM, and the relationship of the solution and the size effect and the strain rate is discussed. In addition, an experiment on the size effect of confined concrete is carried out and the solution of SIR model is suitable for simulation. The results show that the mechanical mechanism of the parameters of the uniaxial stress-strain model proposed in this paper reflects the actual characteristics of the materials. The solution of the SIR model can fully and accurately show the change of the mechanical performance and the influence of the size effect and the strain rate.
An integrated supply chain model for the perishable items with fuzzy production rate and fuzzy demand rate

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Singh Chaman

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In the changing market scenario, supply chain management is getting phenomenal importance amongst researchers. Studies on supply chain management have emphasized the importance of a long-term strategic relationship between the manufacturer, distributor and retailer. In the present paper, a model has been developed by assuming that the demand rate and production rate as triangular fuzzy numbers and items deteriorate at a constant rate. The expressions for the average inventory cost are obtained both in crisp and fuzzy sense. The fuzzy model is defuzzified using the fuzzy extension principle, and its optimization with respect to the decision variable is also carried out. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the model and sensitivity analysis is performed to study the effect of parameters.
Growth rate in the dynamical dark energy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avsajanishvili, Olga; Arkhipova, Natalia A.; Samushia, Lado; Kahniashvili, Tina

2014-01-01

Dark energy models with a slowly rolling cosmological scalar field provide a popular alternative to the standard, time-independent cosmological constant model. We study the simultaneous evolution of background expansion and growth in the scalar field model with the Ratra-Peebles self-interaction potential. We use recent measurements of the linear growth rate and the baryon acoustic oscillation peak positions to constrain the model parameter α that describes the steepness of the scalar field potential. (orig.)
Growth rate in the dynamical dark energy models.

Science.gov (United States)

Avsajanishvili, Olga; Arkhipova, Natalia A; Samushia, Lado; Kahniashvili, Tina

Dark energy models with a slowly rolling cosmological scalar field provide a popular alternative to the standard, time-independent cosmological constant model. We study the simultaneous evolution of background expansion and growth in the scalar field model with the Ratra-Peebles self-interaction potential. We use recent measurements of the linear growth rate and the baryon acoustic oscillation peak positions to constrain the model parameter [Formula: see text] that describes the steepness of the scalar field potential.
Real Exchange Rate and Productivity in an OLG Model

OpenAIRE

Thi Hong Thinh DOAN; Karine GENTE

2013-01-01

This article develops an overlapping generations model to show how demography and savings affect the relationship between real exchange rate (RER) and productivity. In high-saving (low-saving) countries and/or low-population-growth-rate countries, a rise in productivity leads to a real depreciation (appreciation) whereas the RER may appreciate or depreciate in highproduction-growth-rate. Using panel data, we conclude that a rise in productivity generally causes a real exchange rate appreciati...
How Hot Precursor Modify Island Nucleation: A Rate-Equation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Morales-Cifuentes, Josue; Einstein, T. L.; Pimpinelli, Alberto

2015-03-01

We describe the analysis, based on rate equations, of the hot precursor model mentioned in the previous talk. Two key parameters are the competing times of ballistic monomers decaying into thermalized monomers vs. being captured by an island, which naturally define a ``thermalization'' scale for the system. We interpret the energies and dimmensionless parameters used in the model, and provide both an implicit analytic solution and a convenient asymptotic approximation. Further analysis reveals novel scaling regimes and nonmonotonic crossovers between them. To test our model, we applied it to experiments on parahexaphenyl (6P) on sputtered mica. With the resulting parameters, the curves derived from our analytic treatment account very well for the data at the 4 different temperatures. The fit shows that the high-flux regime corresponds not to ALA (attachment-limited aggregation) or HMA (hot monomer aggregation) but rather to an intermediate scaling regime related to DLA (diffusion-limited aggregation). We hope this work stimulates further experimental investigations. Work at UMD supported by NSF CHE 13-05892.
Structure analysis of tax revenue and inflation rate in Banda Aceh using vector error correction model with multiple alpha

Science.gov (United States)

Sofyan, Hizir; Maulia, Eva; Miftahuddin

2017-11-01

A country has several important parameters to achieve economic prosperity, such as tax revenue and inflation rate. One of the largest revenues of the State Budget in Indonesia comes from the tax sector. Meanwhile, the rate of inflation occurring in a country can be used as an indicator, to measure the good and bad economic problems faced by the country. Given the importance of tax revenue and inflation rate control in achieving economic prosperity, it is necessary to analyze the structure of tax revenue relations and inflation rate. This study aims to produce the best VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) with optimal lag using various alpha and perform structural analysis using the Impulse Response Function (IRF) of the VECM models to examine the relationship of tax revenue, and inflation in Banda Aceh. The results showed that the best model for the data of tax revenue and inflation rate in Banda Aceh City using alpha 0.01 is VECM with optimal lag 2, while the best model for data of tax revenue and inflation rate in Banda Aceh City using alpha 0.05 and 0,1 VECM with optimal lag 3. However, the VECM model with alpha 0.01 yielded four significant models of income tax model, inflation rate of Banda Aceh, inflation rate of health and inflation rate of education in Banda Aceh. While the VECM model with alpha 0.05 and 0.1 yielded one significant model that is income tax model. Based on the VECM models, then there are two structural analysis IRF which is formed to look at the relationship of tax revenue, and inflation in Banda Aceh, the IRF with VECM (2) and IRF with VECM (3).
Can Low-Resolution Airborne Laser Scanning Data Be Used to Model Stream Rating Curves?

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Steve W. Lyon

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This pilot study explores the potential of using low-resolution (0.2 points/m2 airborne laser scanning (ALS-derived elevation data to model stream rating curves. Rating curves, which allow the functional translation of stream water depth into discharge, making them integral to water resource monitoring efforts, were modeled using a physics-based approach that captures basic geometric measurements to establish flow resistance due to implicit channel roughness. We tested synthetically thinned high-resolution (more than 2 points/m2 ALS data as a proxy for low-resolution data at a point density equivalent to that obtained within most national-scale ALS strategies. Our results show that the errors incurred due to the effect of low-resolution versus high-resolution ALS data were less than those due to flow measurement and empirical rating curve fitting uncertainties. As such, although there likely are scale and technical limitations to consider, it is theoretically possible to generate rating curves in a river network from ALS data of the resolution anticipated within national-scale ALS schemes (at least for rivers with relatively simple geometries. This is promising, since generating rating curves from ALS scans would greatly enhance our ability to monitor streamflow by simplifying the overall effort required.
Can low-resolution airborne laser scanning data be used to model stream rating curves?

Science.gov (United States)

Lyon, Steve; Nathanson, Marcus; Lam, Norris; Dahlke, Helen; Rutzinger, Martin; Kean, Jason W.; Laudon, Hjalmar

2015-01-01

This pilot study explores the potential of using low-resolution (0.2 points/m2) airborne laser scanning (ALS)-derived elevation data to model stream rating curves. Rating curves, which allow the functional translation of stream water depth into discharge, making them integral to water resource monitoring efforts, were modeled using a physics-based approach that captures basic geometric measurements to establish flow resistance due to implicit channel roughness. We tested synthetically thinned high-resolution (more than 2 points/m2) ALS data as a proxy for low-resolution data at a point density equivalent to that obtained within most national-scale ALS strategies. Our results show that the errors incurred due to the effect of low-resolution versus high-resolution ALS data were less than those due to flow measurement and empirical rating curve fitting uncertainties. As such, although there likely are scale and technical limitations to consider, it is theoretically possible to generate rating curves in a river network from ALS data of the resolution anticipated within national-scale ALS schemes (at least for rivers with relatively simple geometries). This is promising, since generating rating curves from ALS scans would greatly enhance our ability to monitor streamflow by simplifying the overall effort required.
Modeling the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar using the ARCH/GARCH models

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Kovačević Radovan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The analysis of time series with conditional heteroskedasticity (changeable time variability, conditional variance instability, the phenomenon called volatility is the main task of ARCH and GARCH models. The aim of these models is to calculate some of the volatility indicators needed for financial decisions. This paper examines the performance of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH model in modeling the daily changes of the log exchange rate of the euro against the dollar. Several GARCH models have been applied for modeling the daily log exchange rate returns of the euro, with a different number of parameters. The characteristic of estimated GARCH models is that the obtained coefficients of lagged squared residuals and the conditional variance parameters in the equation of conditional variance have a strong statistical significance. The sum of these two coefficients' estimates is close to a unit, which is typical for GARCH models that are applied on the data of financial assets returns. This means that the shocks in the conditional variance equation will be long lasting. The great value of the sum of these two coefficients shows that the high rates of positive or negative returns leads to a large forecasted value of the variance in the prolonged period. The asymmetrical EGARCH (1,1 model has showed the best results in modeling the euro exchange rate returns. The asymmetry term in the conditional variance equation of this model is negative and statistically significant. A negative value of this term suggests that the positive shock has less impact on the conditional variance than the negative shocks. The asymmetric EGARCH (1,1 model provides evidence of a leverage effect.
Decay rates of quarkonia and potential models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rai, Ajay Kumar; Pandya, J N; Vinodkumar, P C

2005-01-01

The decay rates of cc-bar and b-barb mesons have been studied with contributions from different correction terms. The corrections based on hard processes involved in the decays are quantitatively studied in the framework of different phenomenological potential models
A closed-loop hybrid physiological model relating to subjects under physical stress.

Science.gov (United States)

El-Samahy, Emad; Mahfouf, Mahdi; Linkens, Derek A

2006-11-01

The objective of this research study is to derive a comprehensive physiological model relating to subjects under physical stress conditions. The model should describe the behaviour of the cardiovascular system, respiratory system, thermoregulation and brain activity in response to physical workload. An experimental testing rig was built which consists of recumbent high performance bicycle for inducing the physical load and a data acquisition system comprising monitors and PCs. The signals acquired and used within this study are the blood pressure, heart rate, respiration, body temperature, and EEG signals. The proposed model is based on a grey-box based modelling approach which was used because of the sufficient level of details it provides. Cardiovascular and EEG Data relating to 16 healthy subject volunteers (data from 12 subjects were used for training/validation and the data from 4 subjects were used for model testing) were collected using the Finapres and the ProComp+ monitors. For model validation, residual analysis via the computing of the confidence intervals as well as related histograms was performed. Closed-loop simulations for different subjects showed that the model can provide reliable predictions for heart rate, blood pressure, body temperature, respiration, and the EEG signals. These findings were also reinforced by the residual analyses data obtained, which suggested that the residuals were within the 90% confidence bands and that the corresponding histograms were of a normal distribution. A higher intelligent level was added to the model, based on neural networks, to extend the capabilities of the model to predict over a wide range of subjects dynamics. The elicited physiological model describing the effect of physiological stress on several physiological variables can be used to predict performance breakdown of operators in critical environments. Such a model architecture lends itself naturally to exploitation via feedback control in a 'reverse
Female song rates in response to simulated intruder are positively related to reproductive success.

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Kristal E Cain

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Bird song is well studied in males as a sexually selected behavior. However, although song is also common among females, it is infrequently examined and poorly understood. Research suggests that song is often used as a resource defense behavior and is important in female-female competition for limited resources, e.g. mates and territories. If so, song should be positively related to fitness and related to other resource defense behaviors, but this possibility has rarely been explored. Here we examine fitness estimates in relation to spontaneous song rates and song rates in response to a simulated intruder (playback, in the superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus, a cooperatively breeding songbird. We also determine how song rates relate to other territorial defense behaviors. Song rate in response to playback, but not spontaneous song rate, was positively related to nest success and the number of fledglings produced by successful females. Further, response song rate was also correlated with other territorial defense behaviors (latency to respond and flights. This evidence supports the hypothesis that female song may be used in the context of female-female competition to improve access to limited reproductive resources, and suggests that song may provide direct fitness benefits.
Dose-rate dependent stochastic effects in radiation cell-survival models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sachs, R.K.; Hlatky, L.R.

1990-01-01

When cells are subjected to ionizing radiation the specific energy rate (microscopic analog of dose-rate) varies from cell to cell. Within one cell, this rate fluctuates during the course of time; a crossing of a sensitive cellular site by a high energy charged particle produces many ionizations almost simultaneously, but during the interval between events no ionizations occur. In any cell-survival model one can incorporate the effect of such fluctuations without changing the basic biological assumptions. Using stochastic differential equations and Monte Carlo methods to take into account stochastic effects we calculated the dose-survival rfelationships in a number of current cell survival models. Some of the models assume quadratic misrepair; others assume saturable repair enzyme systems. It was found that a significant effect of random fluctuations is to decrease the theoretically predicted amount of dose-rate sparing. In the limit of low dose-rates neglecting the stochastic nature of specific energy rates often leads to qualitatively misleading results by overestimating the surviving fraction drastically. In the opposite limit of acute irradiation, analyzing the fluctuations in rates merely amounts to analyzing fluctuations in total specific energy via the usual microdosimetric specific energy distribution function, and neglecting fluctuations usually underestimates the surviving fraction. The Monte Carlo methods interpolate systematically between the low dose-rate and high dose-rate limits. As in other approaches, the slope of the survival curve at low dose-rates is virtually independent of dose and equals the initial slope of the survival curve for acute radiation. (orig.)

Exchange rate predictability and state-of-the-art models

OpenAIRE

Yeșin, Pınar

2016-01-01

This paper empirically evaluates the predictive performance of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) exchange rate assessments with respect to future exchange rate movements. The assessments of real trade-weighted exchange rates were conducted from 2006 to 2011, and were based on three state-of-the-art exchange rate models with a medium-term focus which were developed by the IMF. The empirical analysis using 26 advanced and emerging market economy currencies reveals that the "diagnosis" of ...
Further results on open-loop compensation of rate-dependent hysteresis in a magnetostrictive actuator with the Prandtl-Ishlinskii model

Science.gov (United States)

Al Janaideh, Mohammad; Aljanaideh, Omar

2018-05-01

Apart from the output-input hysteresis loops, the magnetostrictive actuators also exhibit asymmetry and saturation, particularly under moderate to large magnitude inputs and at relatively higher frequencies. Such nonlinear input-output characteristics could be effectively characterized by a rate-dependent Prandtl-Ishlinskii model in conjunction with a function of deadband operators. In this study, an inverse model is formulated to seek real-time compensation of rate-dependent and asymmetric hysteresis nonlinearities of a Terfenol-D magnetostrictive actuator. The inverse model is formulated with the inverse of the rate-dependent Prandtl-Ishlinskii model, satisfying the threshold dilation condition, with the inverse of the deadband function. The inverse model was subsequently applied to the hysteresis model as a feedforward compensator. The proposed compensator is applied as a feedforward compensator to the actuator hardware to study its potential for rate-dependent and asymmetric hysteresis loops. The experimental results are obtained under harmonic and complex harmonic inputs further revealed that the inverse compensator can substantially suppress the hysteresis and output asymmetry nonlinearities in the entire frequency range considered in the study.
Modeling decay rates of dead wood in a neotropical forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Hérault, Bruno; Beauchêne, Jacques; Muller, Félix; Wagner, Fabien; Baraloto, Christopher; Blanc, Lilian; Martin, Jean-Michel

2010-09-01

Variation of dead wood decay rates among tropical trees remains one source of uncertainty in global models of the carbon cycle. Taking advantage of a broad forest plot network surveyed for tree mortality over a 23-year period, we measured the remaining fraction of boles from 367 dead trees from 26 neotropical species widely varying in wood density (0.23-1.24 g cm(-3)) and tree circumference at death time (31.5-272.0 cm). We modeled decay rates within a Bayesian framework assuming a first order differential equation to model the decomposition process and tested for the effects of forest management (selective logging vs. unexploited), of mode of death (standing vs. downed) and of topographical levels (bottomlands vs. hillsides vs. hilltops) on wood decay rates. The general decay model predicts the observed remaining fraction of dead wood (R2 = 60%) with only two biological predictors: tree circumference at death time and wood specific density. Neither selective logging nor local topography had a differential effect on wood decay rates. Including the mode of death into the model revealed that standing dead trees decomposed faster than downed dead trees, but the gain of model accuracy remains rather marginal. Overall, these results suggest that the release of carbon from tropical dead trees to the atmosphere can be simply estimated using tree circumference at death time and wood density.
Nonmarital Fertility and the Effects of Divorce Rates on Youth Suicide Rates

Science.gov (United States)

Messner, Steven F.; Bjarnason, Thoroddur; Raffalovich, Lawrence E.; Robinson, Bryan K.

2006-01-01

Using pooled, time-series data for a sample of 15 developed nations, we assess the effect of divorce rates on gender-specific suicide rates for youths aged 15-19 with models of relative cohort size, lagged nonmarital fertility, and an interaction term for divorce rates and nonmarital fertility. The results reveal that, for young men, relative…
Prediction of pure water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) in nickel base alloys using crack growth rate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, C.D.; Krasodomski, H.T.; Lewis, N.; Makar, G.L.

1995-01-01

The Ford/Andresen slip dissolution SCC model, originally developed for stainless steel components in BWR environments, has been applied to Alloy 600 and Alloy X-750 tested in deaerated pure water chemistry. A method is described whereby the crack growth rates measured in compact tension specimens can be used to estimate crack growth in a component. Good agreement was found between model prediction and measured SCC in X-750 threaded fasteners over a wide range of temperatures, stresses, and material condition. Most data support the basic assumption of this model that cracks initiate early in life. The evidence supporting a particular SCC mechanism is mixed. Electrochemical repassivation data and estimates of oxide fracture strain indicate that the slip dissolution model can account for the observed crack growth rates, provided primary rather than secondary creep rates are used. However, approximately 100 cross-sectional TEM foils of SCC cracks including crack tips reveal no evidence of enhanced plasticity or unique dislocation patterns at the crack tip or along the crack to support a classic slip dissolution mechanism. No voids, hydrides, or microcracks are found in the vicinity of the crack tips creating doubt about classic hydrogen related mechanisms. The bulk oxide films exhibit a surface oxide which is often different than the oxides found within a crack. Although bulk chromium concentration affects the rate of SCC, analytical data indicates the mechanism does not result from chromium depletion at the grain boundaries. The overall findings support a corrosion/dissolution mechanism but not one necessarily related to slip at the crack tip
Numerical modelling of landscape and sediment flux response to precipitation rate change

Science.gov (United States)

Armitage, John J.; Whittaker, Alexander C.; Zakari, Mustapha; Campforts, Benjamin

2018-02-01

both models respond more quickly to a wetting event than a drying event, and we argue that this asymmetry in response time has significant implications for depositional stratigraphies. Finally, we evaluate the extent to which these constraints on response times and sediment fluxes from simple models help us understand the geological record of landscape response to rapid environmental changes in the past, such as the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM). In the Spanish Pyrenees, for instance, a relatively rapid (10 to 50 kyr) duration of the deposition of gravel is observed for a climatic shift that is thought to be towards increased precipitation rates. We suggest that the rapid response observed is more easily explained through a diffusive transport model because (1) the model has a faster response time, which is consistent with the documented stratigraphic data, (2) there is a high-amplitude spike in sediment flux, and (3) the assumption of instantaneous transport is difficult to justify for the transport of large grain sizes as an alluvial bedload. Consequently, while these end-member models do not reproduce all the complexity of processes seen in real landscapes, we argue that variations in long-term erosional dynamics within source catchments can fundamentally control when, how, and where sedimentary archives can record past environmental change.
Numerical modelling of landscape and sediment flux response to precipitation rate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. J. Armitage

2018-02-01

important finding is that both models respond more quickly to a wetting event than a drying event, and we argue that this asymmetry in response time has significant implications for depositional stratigraphies. Finally, we evaluate the extent to which these constraints on response times and sediment fluxes from simple models help us understand the geological record of landscape response to rapid environmental changes in the past, such as the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM. In the Spanish Pyrenees, for instance, a relatively rapid (10 to 50 kyr duration of the deposition of gravel is observed for a climatic shift that is thought to be towards increased precipitation rates. We suggest that the rapid response observed is more easily explained through a diffusive transport model because (1 the model has a faster response time, which is consistent with the documented stratigraphic data, (2 there is a high-amplitude spike in sediment flux, and (3 the assumption of instantaneous transport is difficult to justify for the transport of large grain sizes as an alluvial bedload. Consequently, while these end-member models do not reproduce all the complexity of processes seen in real landscapes, we argue that variations in long-term erosional dynamics within source catchments can fundamentally control when, how, and where sedimentary archives can record past environmental change.
CONTINUOUS MODELING OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE OF USD VERSUS TRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yakup Arı

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This study aims to construct continuous-time autoregressive (CAR model and continuous-time GARCH (COGARCH model from discrete time data of foreign exchange rate of United States Dollar (USD versus Turkish Lira (TRY. These processes are solutions to stochastic differential equation Lévy-driven processes. We have shown that CAR(1 and COGARCH(1,1 processes are proper models to represent foreign exchange rate of USD and TRY for different periods of time February 2002- June 2010.
Bayes estimation of the general hazard rate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarhan, A.

1999-01-01

In reliability theory and life testing models, the life time distributions are often specified by choosing a relevant hazard rate function. Here a general hazard rate function h(t)=a+bt c-1 , where c, a, b are constants greater than zero, is considered. The parameter c is assumed to be known. The Bayes estimators of (a,b) based on the data of type II/item-censored testing without replacement are obtained. A large simulation study using Monte Carlo Method is done to compare the performance of Bayes with regression estimators of (a,b). The criterion for comparison is made based on the Bayes risk associated with the respective estimator. Also, the influence of the number of failed items on the accuracy of the estimators (Bayes and regression) is investigated. Estimations for the parameters (a,b) of the linearly increasing hazard rate model h(t)=a+bt, where a, b are greater than zero, can be obtained as the special case, letting c=2
A model for reaction rates in turbulent reacting flows

Science.gov (United States)

Chinitz, W.; Evans, J. S.

1984-01-01

To account for the turbulent temperature and species-concentration fluctuations, a model is presented on the effects of chemical reaction rates in computer analyses of turbulent reacting flows. The model results in two parameters which multiply the terms in the reaction-rate equations. For these two parameters, graphs are presented as functions of the mean values and intensity of the turbulent fluctuations of the temperature and species concentrations. These graphs will facilitate incorporation of the model into existing computer programs which describe turbulent reacting flows. When the model was used in a two-dimensional parabolic-flow computer code to predict the behavior of an experimental, supersonic hydrogen jet burning in air, some improvement in agreement with the experimental data was obtained in the far field in the region near the jet centerline. Recommendations are included for further improvement of the model and for additional comparisons with experimental data.
Simple relations between mean passage times and Kramers' stationary rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boilley, David; Jurado, Beatriz; Schmitt, Christelle

2004-01-01

The classical problem of the escape time of a metastable potential well in a thermal environment is generally studied by various quantities like Kramers' stationary escape rate, mean first passage time, nonlinear relaxation time, or mean last passage time. In addition, numerical simulations lead to the definition of other quantities as the long-time limit escape rate and the transient time. In this paper, we propose some simple analytical relations between all these quantities. In particular, we point out the hypothesis used to evaluate these various times in order to clarify their comparison and applicability, and show how average times include the transient time and the long-time limit of the escape rate
Diversification rates are more strongly related to microhabitat than climate in squamate reptiles (lizards and snakes).

Science.gov (United States)

Bars-Closel, Melissa; Kohlsdorf, Tiana; Moen, Daniel S; Wiens, John J

2017-09-01

Patterns of species richness among clades can be directly explained by the ages of clades or their rates of diversification. The factors that most strongly influence diversification rates remain highly uncertain, since most studies typically consider only a single predictor variable. Here, we explore the relative impacts of macroclimate (i.e., occurring in tropical vs. temperate regions) and microhabitat use (i.e., terrestrial, fossorial, arboreal, aquatic) on diversification rates of squamate reptile clades (lizards and snakes). We obtained data on microhabitat, macroclimatic distribution, and phylogeny for >4000 species. We estimated diversification rates of squamate clades (mostly families) from a time-calibrated tree, and used phylogenetic methods to test relationships between diversification rates and microhabitat and macroclimate. Across 72 squamate clades, the best-fitting model included microhabitat but not climatic distribution. Microhabitat explained ∼37% of the variation in diversification rates among clades, with a generally positive impact of arboreal microhabitat use on diversification, and negative impacts of fossorial and aquatic microhabitat use. Overall, our results show that the impacts of microhabitat on diversification rates can be more important than those of climate, despite much greater emphasis on climate in previous studies. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.
A Model of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization for Turkey

OpenAIRE

Ozlem Aytac

2008-01-01

The literature on the exchange-rate-based stabilization has focused almost exclusively in Latin America. Many other countries however, such as Egypt, Lebanon and Turkey; have undertaken this sort of programs in the last 10-15 years. I depart from the existing literature by developing a model specifically for the 2000-2001 heterodox exchange-rate-based stabilization program in Turkey: When the government lowers the rate of crawl, the rate of domestic credit creation is set equal to the lower r...
Modeling climate effects on hip fracture rate by the multivariate GARCH model in Montreal region, Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Modarres, Reza; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Vanasse, Alain; Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Gosselin, Pierre

2014-07-01

Changes in extreme meteorological variables and the demographic shift towards an older population have made it important to investigate the association of climate variables and hip fracture by advanced methods in order to determine the climate variables that most affect hip fracture incidence. The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA X-GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time series approaches were applied to investigate the nonlinear association between hip fracture rate in female and male patients aged 40-74 and 75+ years and climate variables in the period of 1993-2004, in Montreal, Canada. The models describe 50-56 % of daily variation in hip fracture rate and identify snow depth, air temperature, day length and air pressure as the influencing variables on the time-varying mean and variance of the hip fracture rate. The conditional covariance between climate variables and hip fracture rate is increasing exponentially, showing that the effect of climate variables on hip fracture rate is most acute when rates are high and climate conditions are at their worst. In Montreal, climate variables, particularly snow depth and air temperature, appear to be important predictors of hip fracture incidence. The association of climate variables and hip fracture does not seem to change linearly with time, but increases exponentially under harsh climate conditions. The results of this study can be used to provide an adaptive climate-related public health program and ti guide allocation of services for avoiding hip fracture risk.
Entrainment to periodic initiation and transition rates in a computational model for gene translation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Margaliot

Full Text Available Periodic oscillations play an important role in many biomedical systems. Proper functioning of biological systems that respond to periodic signals requires the ability to synchronize with the periodic excitation. For example, the sleep/wake cycle is a manifestation of an internal timing system that synchronizes to the solar day. In the terminology of systems theory, the biological system must entrain or phase-lock to the periodic excitation. Entrainment is also important in synthetic biology. For example, connecting several artificial biological systems that entrain to a common clock may lead to a well-functioning modular system. The cell-cycle is a periodic program that regulates DNA synthesis and cell division. Recent biological studies suggest that cell-cycle related genes entrain to this periodic program at the gene translation level, leading to periodically-varying protein levels of these genes. The ribosome flow model (RFM is a deterministic model obtained via a mean-field approximation of a stochastic model from statistical physics that has been used to model numerous processes including ribosome flow along the mRNA. Here we analyze the RFM under the assumption that the initiation and/or transition rates vary periodically with a common period T. We show that the ribosome distribution profile in the RFM entrains to this periodic excitation. In particular, the protein synthesis pattern converges to a unique periodic solution with period T. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first proof of entrainment in a mathematical model for translation that encapsulates aspects such as initiation and termination rates, ribosomal movement and interactions, and non-homogeneous elongation speeds along the mRNA. Our results support the conjecture that periodic oscillations in tRNA levels and other factors related to the translation process can induce periodic oscillations in protein levels, and may suggest a new approach for re-engineering genetic
Validated analytical modeling of diesel engine regulated exhaust CO emission rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Waleed F Faris

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Albeit vehicle analytical models are often favorable for explainable mathematical trends, no analytical model has been developed of the regulated diesel exhaust CO emission rate for trucks yet. This research unprecedentedly develops and validates for trucks a model of the steady speed regulated diesel exhaust CO emission rate analytically. It has been found that the steady speed–based CO exhaust emission rate is based on (1 CO2 dissociation, (2 the water–gas shift reaction, and (3 the incomplete combustion of hydrocarbon. It has been found as well that the steady speed–based CO exhaust emission rate based on CO2 dissociation is considerably less than the rate that is based on the water–gas shift reaction. It has also been found that the steady speed–based CO exhaust emission rate based on the water–gas shift reaction is the dominant source of CO exhaust emission. The study shows that the average percentage of deviation of the steady speed–based simulated results from the corresponding field data is 1.7% for all freeway cycles with 99% coefficient of determination at the confidence level of 95%. This deviation of the simulated results from field data outperforms its counterpart of widely recognized models such as the comprehensive modal emissions model and VT-Micro for all freeway cycles.
Relationship between soil erodibility and modeled infiltration rate in different soils

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Guoqiang; Fang, Qingqing; Wu, Binbin; Yang, Huicai; Xu, Zongxue

2015-09-01

The relationship between soil erodibility, which is hard to measure, and modeled infiltration rate were rarely researched. Here, the soil erodibility factors (K and Ke in the USLE, Ki and K1 in the WEPP) were calculated and the infiltration rates were modeled based on the designed laboratory simulation experiments and proposed infiltration model, in order to build their relationship. The impacts of compost amendment on the soil erosion characteristics and relationship were also studied. Two contrasting agricultural soils (bare and cultivated fluvo-aquic soils) were used, and different poultry compost contents (control, low and high) were applied to both soils. The results indicated that the runoff rate, sediment yield rate and soil erodibility of the bare soil treatments were generally higher than those of the corresponding cultivated soil treatments. The application of composts generally decreased sediment yield and soil erodibility but did not always decrease runoff. The comparison of measured and modeled infiltration rates indicated that the model represented the infiltration processes well with an N-S coefficient of 0.84 for overall treatments. Significant negative logarithmic correlations have been found between final infiltration rate (FIR) and the four soil erodibility factors, and the relationship between USLE-K and FIR demonstrated the best correlation. The application of poultry composts would not influence the logarithmic relationship between FIR and soil erodibility. Our study provided a useful tool to estimate soil erodibility.
a metabolic wastage model for the rate-yield trade off

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

A METABOLIC WASTAGE MODEL FOR THE RATE-YIELD TRADE OFF. There is a growth limiting step in which an intermediate metabolite (m) has to hit a target molecule (t). ... D= rate of diffusing out. S= the rate of formation of the metabolite. The equilibrium loss decides the yield. The no. of activated targets decide the rate ...
The ruin probability of a discrete time risk model under constant interest rate with heavy tails

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tang, Q.

2004-01-01

This paper investigates the ultimate ruin probability of a discrete time risk model with a positive constant interest rate. Under the assumption that the gross loss of the company within one year is subexponentially distributed, a simple asymptotic relation for the ruin probability is derived and
A simplified 137Cs transport model for estimating erosion rates in undisturbed soil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Xinbao; Long Yi; He Xiubin; Fu Jiexiong; Zhang Yunqi

2008-01-01

137 Cs is an artificial radionuclide with a half-life of 30.12 years which released into the environment as a result of atmospheric testing of thermo-nuclear weapons primarily during the period of 1950s-1970s with the maximum rate of 137 Cs fallout from atmosphere in 1963. 137 Cs fallout is strongly and rapidly adsorbed by fine particles in the surface horizons of the soil, when it falls down on the ground mostly with precipitation. Its subsequent redistribution is associated with movements of the soil or sediment particles. The 137 Cs nuclide tracing technique has been used for assessment of soil losses for both undisturbed and cultivated soils. For undisturbed soils, a simple profile-shape model was developed in 1990 to describe the 137 Cs depth distribution in profile, where the maximum 137 Cs occurs in the surface horizon and it exponentially decreases with depth. The model implied that the total 137 Cs fallout amount deposited on the earth surface in 1963 and the 137 Cs profile shape has not changed with time. The model has been widely used for assessment of soil losses on undisturbed land. However, temporal variations of 137 Cs depth distribution in undisturbed soils after its deposition on the ground due to downward transport processes are not considered in the previous simple profile-shape model. Thus, the soil losses are overestimated by the model. On the base of the erosion assessment model developed by Walling, D.E., He, Q. [1999. Improved models for estimating soil erosion rates from cesium-137 measurements. Journal of Environmental Quality 28, 611-622], we discuss the 137 Cs transport process in the eroded soil profile and make some simplification to the model, develop a method to estimate the soil erosion rate more expediently. To compare the soil erosion rates calculated by the simple profile-shape model and the simple transport model, the soil losses related to different 137 Cs loss proportions of the reference inventory at the Kaixian site of the

The Relation between Recombination Rate and Patterns of Molecular Evolution and Variation in Drosophila melanogaster

Science.gov (United States)

Campos, José L.; Halligan, Daniel L.; Haddrill, Penelope R.; Charlesworth, Brian

2014-01-01

Genetic recombination associated with sexual reproduction increases the efficiency of natural selection by reducing the strength of Hill–Robertson interference. Such interference can be caused either by selective sweeps of positively selected alleles or by background selection (BGS) against deleterious mutations. Its consequences can be studied by comparing patterns of molecular evolution and variation in genomic regions with different rates of crossing over. We carried out a comprehensive study of the benefits of recombination in Drosophila melanogaster, both by contrasting five independent genomic regions that lack crossing over with the rest of the genome and by comparing regions with different rates of crossing over, using data on DNA sequence polymorphisms from an African population that is geographically close to the putatively ancestral population for the species, and on sequence divergence from a related species. We observed reductions in sequence diversity in noncrossover (NC) regions that are inconsistent with the effects of hard selective sweeps in the absence of recombination. Overall, the observed patterns suggest that the recombination rate experienced by a gene is positively related to an increase in the efficiency of both positive and purifying selection. The results are consistent with a BGS model with interference among selected sites in NC regions, and joint effects of BGS, selective sweeps, and a past population expansion on variability in regions of the genome that experience crossing over. In such crossover regions, the X chromosome exhibits a higher rate of adaptive protein sequence evolution than the autosomes, implying a Faster-X effect. PMID:24489114
The work-related fatal injury study: numbers, rates and trends of work-related fatal injuries in New Zealand 1985-1994.

Science.gov (United States)

Feyer, A M; Langley, J; Howard, M; Horsburgh, S; Wright, C; Alsop, J; Cryer, C

2001-01-26

To determine the number and rates of work-related fatal injuries by employment status, occupation, industry, age and gender in New Zealand 1985-1994. Potential cases of work-related injury deaths of persons aged 15-84 years were identified from the national electronic mortality data files. Main exclusions were deaths due to suicide and deaths due to motor vehicle crashes. The circumstances of the deaths of each fatal incident meeting inclusion criteria were then reviewed directly from coronial files to determine work-relatedness. The rate of work-related fatal injury in New Zealand was 5.03/100000 workers per year for the study period. There was a significant decline in crude rate over the study period. However, this was in substantial part accounted for by changes in occupation and industry mix. Older workers, male workers, self-employed workers, and particular occupational groups, all had substantially elevated rates. Agricultural and helicopter pilots, forestry workers and fishery workers had the highest rates. Farmers, forestry workers, and fishery workers also had high numbers of deaths, together accounting for nearly 40% of all deaths. This study has demonstrated that work-related fatal injury remains a pressing problem for New Zealand. Several areas in urgent need of prevention efforts were highlighted.
A review on pipeline corrosion, in-line inspection (ILI), and corrosion growth rate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanaei, H.R.; Eslami, A.; Egbewande, A.

2017-01-01

Pipelines are the very important energy transmission systems. Over time, pipelines can corrode. While corrosion could be detected by in-line inspection (ILI) tools, corrosion growth rate prediction in pipelines is usually done through corrosion rate models. For pipeline integrity management and planning selecting the proper corrosion ILI tool and also corrosion growth rate model is important and can lead to significant savings and safer pipe operation. In this paper common forms of pipeline corrosion, state of the art ILI tools, and also corrosion growth rate models are reviewed. The common forms of pipeline corrosion introduced in this paper are Uniform/General Corrosion, Pitting Corrosion, Cavitation and Erosion Corrosion, Stray Current Corrosion, Micro-Bacterial Influenced Corrosion (MIC). The ILI corrosion detection tools assessed in this study are Magnetic Flux Leakage (MFL), Circumferential MFL, Tri-axial MFL, and Ultrasonic Wall Measurement (UT). The corrosion growth rate models considered in this study are single-value corrosion rate model, linear corrosion growth rate model, non-linear corrosion growth rate model, Monte-Carlo method, Markov model, TD-GEVD, TI-GEVD model, Gamma Process, and BMWD model. Strengths and limitations of ILI detection tools, and also corrosion predictive models with some practical examples are discussed. This paper could be useful for those whom are supporting pipeline integrity management and planning. - Highlights: • Different forms of pipeline corrosion are explained. • Common In-Line Inspection (ILI) tools and corrosion growth rate models are introduced. • Strength and limitations of corrosion growth rate models/ILI tools are discussed. • For pipeline integrity management programs using more than one corrosion growth rate model/ILI tool is suggested.
Developing models for the prediction of hospital healthcare waste generation rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Tesfahun, Esubalew; Kumie, Abera; Beyene, Abebe

2016-01-01

An increase in the number of health institutions, along with frequent use of disposable medical products, has contributed to the increase of healthcare waste generation rate. For proper handling of healthcare waste, it is crucial to predict the amount of waste generation beforehand. Predictive models can help to optimise healthcare waste management systems, set guidelines and evaluate the prevailing strategies for healthcare waste handling and disposal. However, there is no mathematical model developed for Ethiopian hospitals to predict healthcare waste generation rate. Therefore, the objective of this research was to develop models for the prediction of a healthcare waste generation rate. A longitudinal study design was used to generate long-term data on solid healthcare waste composition, generation rate and develop predictive models. The results revealed that the healthcare waste generation rate has a strong linear correlation with the number of inpatients (R(2) = 0.965), and a weak one with the number of outpatients (R(2) = 0.424). Statistical analysis was carried out to develop models for the prediction of the quantity of waste generated at each hospital (public, teaching and private). In these models, the number of inpatients and outpatients were revealed to be significant factors on the quantity of waste generated. The influence of the number of inpatients and outpatients treated varies at different hospitals. Therefore, different models were developed based on the types of hospitals. © The Author(s) 2015.
A Logistic Regression Based Auto Insurance Rate-Making Model Designed for the Insurance Rate Reform

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhengmin Duan

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Using a generalized linear model to determine the claim frequency of auto insurance is a key ingredient in non-life insurance research. Among auto insurance rate-making models, there are very few considering auto types. Therefore, in this paper we are proposing a model that takes auto types into account by making an innovative use of the auto burden index. Based on this model and data from a Chinese insurance company, we built a clustering model that classifies auto insurance rates into three risk levels. The claim frequency and the claim costs are fitted to select a better loss distribution. Then the Logistic Regression model is employed to fit the claim frequency, with the auto burden index considered. Three key findings can be concluded from our study. First, more than 80% of the autos with an auto burden index of 20 or higher belong to the highest risk level. Secondly, the claim frequency is better fitted using the Poisson distribution, however the claim cost is better fitted using the Gamma distribution. Lastly, based on the AIC criterion, the claim frequency is more adequately represented by models that consider the auto burden index than those do not. It is believed that insurance policy recommendations that are based on Generalized linear models (GLM can benefit from our findings.
Analysis of sensory ratings data with cumulative link models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Rune Haubo Bojesen; Brockhoff, Per B.

2013-01-01

Examples of categorical rating scales include discrete preference, liking and hedonic rating scales. Data obtained on these scales are often analyzed with normal linear regression methods or with omnibus Pearson chi2 tests. In this paper we propose to use cumulative link models that allow for reg...
Modeling residential water and related energy, carbon footprint and costs in California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Escriva-Bou, Alvar; Lund, Jay R.; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2015-01-01

Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • We model residential water use and related energy and GHG emissions in California. • Heterogeneity in use, spatial variability and water and energy rates are accounted. • Outdoor is more than 50% of water use but 80% of energy is used by faucet + shower. • Variability in water and energy prices affects willingness to adopt conservation. • Targeting high-use hoses and joint conservation policies are effective strategies. - Abstract: Starting from single-family household water end-use data, this study develops an end-use model for water-use and related energy and carbon footprint using probability distributions for parameters affecting water consumption in 10 local water utilities in California. Monte Carlo simulations are used to develop a large representative sample of households to describe variability in use, with water bills for each house for different utility rate structures. The water-related energy consumption for each household realization was obtained using an energy model based on the different water end-uses, assuming probability distributions for hot-water-use for each appliance and water heater characteristics. Spatial variability is incorporated to account for average air and household water inlet temperatures and price structures for each utility. Water-related energy costs are calculated using averaged energy price for each location. CO 2 emissions were derived from energy use using emission factors. Overall simulation runs assess the impact of several common conservation strategies on household water and energy use. Results show that single-family water-related CO 2 emissions are 2% of overall per capita emissions, and that managing water and energy jointly can significantly reduce state greenhouse gas emissions
A complex-valued firing-rate model that approximates the dynamics of spiking networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evan S Schaffer

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Firing-rate models provide an attractive approach for studying large neural networks because they can be simulated rapidly and are amenable to mathematical analysis. Traditional firing-rate models assume a simple form in which the dynamics are governed by a single time constant. These models fail to replicate certain dynamic features of populations of spiking neurons, especially those involving synchronization. We present a complex-valued firing-rate model derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation and apply it to the linear, quadratic and exponential integrate-and-fire models. Despite being almost as simple as a traditional firing-rate description, this model can reproduce firing-rate dynamics due to partial synchronization of the action potentials in a spiking model, and it successfully predicts the transition to spike synchronization in networks of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons.
A complex-valued firing-rate model that approximates the dynamics of spiking networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Schaffer, Evan S; Ostojic, Srdjan; Abbott, L F

2013-10-01

Firing-rate models provide an attractive approach for studying large neural networks because they can be simulated rapidly and are amenable to mathematical analysis. Traditional firing-rate models assume a simple form in which the dynamics are governed by a single time constant. These models fail to replicate certain dynamic features of populations of spiking neurons, especially those involving synchronization. We present a complex-valued firing-rate model derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation and apply it to the linear, quadratic and exponential integrate-and-fire models. Despite being almost as simple as a traditional firing-rate description, this model can reproduce firing-rate dynamics due to partial synchronization of the action potentials in a spiking model, and it successfully predicts the transition to spike synchronization in networks of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons.
A model for inverse dose-rate effects - low dose-rate hyper-sensibility in response to targeted radionuclide therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murray, I.; Mather, S.J.

2015-01-01

Full text of publication follows. The aim of this work was to test the hypothesis that the Linear-Quadratic (LQ) model of cell survival, developed for external beam radiotherapy (EBRT), could be extended to targeted radionuclide therapy (TRT) in order to predict dose-response relationships in a cell line exhibiting low dose hypersensitivity (LDH). Methods: aliquots of the PC-3 cancer cell line were treated with either EBRT or an in-vitro model of TRT (Irradiation of cell culture with Y-90 EDTA over 24, 48, 72 or 96 hours). Dosimetry for the TRT was calculated using radiation transport simulations with the Monte Carlo PENELOPE code. Clonogenic as well as functional biological assays were used to assess cell response. An extension of the LQ model was developed which incorporated a dose-rate threshold for activation of repair mechanisms. Results: accurate dosimetry for in-vitro exposures of cell cultures to radioactivity was established. LQ parameters of cell survival were established for the PC-3 cell line in response to EBRT. The standard LQ model did not predict survival in PC-3 cells exposed to Y 90 irradiation over periods of up to 96 hours. In fact cells were more sensitive to the same dose when irradiation was carried out over 96 hours than 24 hours. I.e. at a lower dose-rate. Deviations from the LQ predictions were most pronounced below a threshold dose-rate of 0.5 Gy/hr. These results led to an extension of the LQ model based upon a dose-rate dependent sigmoid model of single strand DNA repair. This extension to the model resulted in predicted cell survival curves that closely matched the experimental data. Conclusion: the LQ model of cell survival to radiation has been shown to be largely predictive of response to low dose-rate irradiation. However, in cells displaying LDH, further adaptation of the model was required. (authors)
Modelling of rate effects at multiple scales

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, R.R.; Simone, A.; Sluys, L. J.

2008-01-01

, the length scale in the meso-model and the macro-model can be coupled. In this fashion, a bridging of length scales can be established. A computational analysis of a Split Hopkinson bar test at medium and high impact load is carried out at macro-scale and meso-scale including information from the micro-scale.......At the macro- and meso-scales a rate dependent constitutive model is used in which visco-elasticity is coupled to visco-plasticity and damage. A viscous length scale effect is introduced to control the size of the fracture process zone. By comparison of the widths of the fracture process zone...
Comparison of the predictions of the LQ and CRE models for normal tissue damage due to biologically targeted radiotherapy with exponentially decaying dose rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Donoghue, J.A.; West of Schotland Health Boards, Glasgow

1989-01-01

For biologically targeted radiotherapy organ dose rates may be complex functions of time, related to the biodistribution kinetics of the delivery vehicle and radiolabel. The simples situation is where dose rates are exponentially decaying functions of time. Two normal tissue isoeffect models enable the effects of exponentially decaying dose rates to be addressed. These are the extension of the linear-quadratic model and the cumulative radiation effect model. This communication will compare the predictions of these models. (author). 14 refs.; 1 fig
Dose rate modelled for the outdoors of a gamma irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mangussi, J

2012-01-01

A model for the absorbed dose rate calculation on the surroundings of a gamma irradiation plant is developed. In such plants, a part of the radiation emitted upwards reach's the outdoors. The Compton scatterings on the wall of the exhausting pipes through de plant roof and on the outdoors air are modelled. The absorbed dose rate generated by the scattered radiation as far as 200 m is calculated. The results of the models, to be used for the irradiation plant design and for the environmental studies, are showed on graphics (author)
A quasi-independence model to estimate failure rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colombo, A.G.

1988-01-01

The use of a quasi-independence model to estimate failure rates is investigated. Gate valves of nuclear plants are considered, and two qualitative covariates are taken into account: plant location and reactor system. Independence between the two covariates and an exponential failure model are assumed. The failure rate of the components of a given system and plant is assumed to be a constant, but it may vary from one system to another and from one plant to another. This leads to the analysis of a contingency table. A particular feature of the model is the different operating time of the components in the various cells which can also be equal to zero. The concept of independence of the covariates is then replaced by that of quasi-independence. The latter definition, however, is used in a broader sense than usual. Suitable statistical tests are discussed and a numerical example illustrates the use of the method. (author)
Influence of water relations and growth rate on plant element uptake and distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greger, Maria

2006-02-01

Plant uptake of Ni, Sr, Mo, Cs, La, Th, Se, Cl and I was examined to determine how plant water relations and growth rate influence the uptake and distribution of these elements in the studied plants. The specific questions were how water uptake and growth rate influenced the uptake of various nuclides and how transpiration influenced translocation to the shoot. The knowledge gained will be used in future modelling of radionuclide leakage from nuclear waste deposits entering the ecosystem via plants. The plant studied was willow, Salix viminalis, a common plant in the areas suggested for waste disposal; since there can be clone variation, two different clones having different uptake properties for several other heavy metals were used. The plants were grown in nutrient solution and the experiments on 3-month-old plants were run for 3 days. Polyethylene glycol was added to the medium to decrease the water uptake rate, a fan was used to increase the transpiration rate, and different light intensities were used to produce different growth rates. Element concentration was analysed in roots and shoots. The results show that both the uptake and distribution of various elements are influenced in different ways and to various extents by water flow and plant growth rate, and that it is not possible from the chemical properties of these elements to know how they will react. However, in most cases increased growth rate diluted the concentration of the element in the tissue, reduced water uptake reduced the element uptake, while transpiration had no effect on the translocation of elements to the shoot. The clones did not differ in terms of either the uptake or translocation of the elements, except that I was not taken up and translocated to the shoot in one of the clones when the plant water flow or growth rate was too low. Not all of the elements were found in the plant in the same proportions as they had been added to the nutrient solution
Influence of water relations and growth rate on plant element uptake and distribution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Greger, Maria [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Botany

2006-02-15

Plant uptake of Ni, Sr, Mo, Cs, La, Th, Se, Cl and I was examined to determine how plant water relations and growth rate influence the uptake and distribution of these elements in the studied plants. The specific questions were how water uptake and growth rate influenced the uptake of various nuclides and how transpiration influenced translocation to the shoot. The knowledge gained will be used in future modelling of radionuclide leakage from nuclear waste deposits entering the ecosystem via plants. The plant studied was willow, Salix viminalis, a common plant in the areas suggested for waste disposal; since there can be clone variation, two different clones having different uptake properties for several other heavy metals were used. The plants were grown in nutrient solution and the experiments on 3-month-old plants were run for 3 days. Polyethylene glycol was added to the medium to decrease the water uptake rate, a fan was used to increase the transpiration rate, and different light intensities were used to produce different growth rates. Element concentration was analysed in roots and shoots. The results show that both the uptake and distribution of various elements are influenced in different ways and to various extents by water flow and plant growth rate, and that it is not possible from the chemical properties of these elements to know how they will react. However, in most cases increased growth rate diluted the concentration of the element in the tissue, reduced water uptake reduced the element uptake, while transpiration had no effect on the translocation of elements to the shoot. The clones did not differ in terms of either the uptake or translocation of the elements, except that I was not taken up and translocated to the shoot in one of the clones when the plant water flow or growth rate was too low. Not all of the elements were found in the plant in the same proportions as they had been added to the nutrient solution.
Linear constraint relations in biochemical reaction systems: I. Classification of the calculability and the balanceability of conversion rates.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Heijden, R T; Heijnen, J J; Hellinga, C; Romein, B; Luyben, K C

1994-01-05

Measurements provide the basis for process monitoring and control as well as for model development and validation. Systematic approaches to increase the accuracy and credibility of the empirical data set are therefore of great value. In (bio)chemical conversions, linear conservation relations such as the balance equations for charge, enthalpy, and/or chemical elements, can be employed to relate conversion rates. In a pactical situation, some of these rates will be measured (in effect, be calculated directly from primary measurements of, e.g., concentrations and flow rates), as others can or cannot be calculated from the measured ones. When certain measured rates can also be calculated from other measured rates, the set of equations, the accuracy and credibility of the measured rates can indeed be improved by, respectively, balancing and gross error diagnosis. The balanced conversion rates are more accurate, and form a consistent set of data, which is more suitable for further application (e.g., to calculate nonmeasured rates) than the raw measurements. Such an approach has drawn attention in previous studies. The current study deals mainly with the problem of mathematically classifying the conversion rates into balanceable and calculable rates, given the subset of measured rates. The significance of this problem is illustrated with some examples. It is shown that a simple matrix equation can be derived that contains the vector of measured conversion rates and the redundancy matrix R. Matrix R plays a predominant role in the classification problem. In supplementary articles, significance of the redundancy matrix R for an improved gross error diagnosis approach will be shown. In addition, efficient equations have been derived to calculate the balanceable and/or calculable rates. The method is completely based on matrix algebra (principally different from the graph-theoretical approach), and it is easily implemented into a computer program. (c) 1994 John Wiley & Sons
Developing a java android application of KMV-Merton default rate model

Science.gov (United States)

Yusof, Norliza Muhamad; Anuar, Aini Hayati; Isa, Norsyaheeda Natasha; Zulkafli, Sharifah Nursyuhada Syed; Sapini, Muhamad Luqman

2017-11-01

This paper presents a developed java android application for KMV-Merton model in predicting the defaut rate of a firm. Predicting default rate is essential in the risk management area as default risk can be immediately transmitted from one entity to another entity. This is the reason default risk is known as a global risk. Although there are several efforts, instruments and methods used to manage the risk, it is said to be insufficient. To the best of our knowledge, there has been limited innovation in developing the default risk mathematical model into a mobile application. Therefore, through this study, default risk is predicted quantitatively using the KMV-Merton model. The KMV-Merton model has been integrated in the form of java program using the Android Studio Software. The developed java android application is tested by predicting the levels of default risk of the three different rated companies. It is found that the levels of default risk are equivalent to the ratings of the respective companies. This shows that the default rate predicted by the KMV-Merton model using the developed java android application can be a significant tool to the risk mangement field. The developed java android application grants users an alternative to predict level of default risk within less procedure.
The association between household poverty rates and tuberculosis case notification rates in Cambodia, 2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mao Yang Eang

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Poverty is a risk factor for tuberculosis (TB; it increases the risk of infection and active disease but limits diagnostic opportunities. The role of poverty in the stagnant case detection in Cambodia is unclear. This study aims to assess the relationship between district household poverty rates and sputum-positive TB case notification rates (CNRs in Cambodia in 2010. Methods: Poisson regression models were used to calculate the relative risk of new sputum-positive TB CNR for Operational Districts (ODs with different poverty rates using data from the National Centre for Tuberculosis and Leprosy Control and the National Committee for SubNational Democratic Development. Models were adjusted for other major covariates and a geographical information system was used to examine the spatial distribution of these covariates in the country. Results: The univariate model showed a positive association between household poverty rates and sputum-positive TB CNRs. However, in multivariate models, after adjusting for major covariates, household poverty rates showed a significantly negative association with sputum-positive TB CNRs (relative risk [RR] = 0.95 per 5% increase in poverty rate. The negative association was stronger among males than females (RR = 0.93 versus 0.96 per 5% increase in poverty rate. Similar spatial patterns were observed between household poverty rates and other covariates, particularly OD population density. Conclusion: Household poverty rate is associated with a decrease in sputum-positive TB CNR in Cambodia, particularly in men. The potential of combining surveillance data and socioeconomic variables should be explored further to provide more insights for TB control programme planning.
Rates of TBI-related Deaths by Age Group - United States, 2001 - 2010

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Changes in the rates of TBI-related deaths vary depending on age. For persons 44 years of age and younger, TBI-related deaths decreased between the periods of...

[Prediction of schistosomiasis infection rates of population based on ARIMA-NARNN model].

Science.gov (United States)

Ke-Wei, Wang; Yu, Wu; Jin-Ping, Li; Yu-Yu, Jiang

2016-07-12

To explore the effect of the autoregressive integrated moving average model-nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (ARIMA-NARNN) model on predicting schistosomiasis infection rates of population. The ARIMA model, NARNN model and ARIMA-NARNN model were established based on monthly schistosomiasis infection rates from January 2005 to February 2015 in Jiangsu Province, China. The fitting and prediction performances of the three models were compared. Compared to the ARIMA model and NARNN model, the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ARIMA-NARNN model were the least with the values of 0.011 1, 0.090 0 and 0.282 4, respectively. The ARIMA-NARNN model could effectively fit and predict schistosomiasis infection rates of population, which might have a great application value for the prevention and control of schistosomiasis.
Lower alert rates by clustering of related drug interaction alerts

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heringa, M.; Siderius, Hidde; Schreudering, A.; De Smet, Peter Agm; Bouvy, M.L.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate to what extent clustering of related drug interaction alerts (drug-drug and drug-disease interaction alerts) would decrease the alert rate in clinical decision support systems (CDSSs). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of drug interaction alerts
Fuzzy time series forecasting model with natural partitioning length approach for predicting the unemployment rate under different degree of confidence

Science.gov (United States)

Ramli, Nazirah; Mutalib, Siti Musleha Ab; Mohamad, Daud

2017-08-01

Fuzzy time series forecasting model has been proposed since 1993 to cater for data in linguistic values. Many improvement and modification have been made to the model such as enhancement on the length of interval and types of fuzzy logical relation. However, most of the improvement models represent the linguistic term in the form of discrete fuzzy sets. In this paper, fuzzy time series model with data in the form of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and natural partitioning length approach is introduced for predicting the unemployment rate. Two types of fuzzy relations are used in this study which are first order and second order fuzzy relation. This proposed model can produce the forecasted values under different degree of confidence.
Estimation of guinea pig tracheobronchial transport rates using a compartmental model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Velasquez, D.J.; Morrow, P.E.

1984-01-01

Mucociliary clearance in the tracheobronchial tree of guinea pigs was examined using monodisperse 7.9 μm MMAD polystyrene particles. Animals were exposed for approximately 1 h by inhalation via an intratracheal tube to aerosols tagged with gold-198 and fluorescent dyes. Following exposure, animals were radioactively monitored and sacrificed at predetermined times. The lungs were removed, freeze-dried, sectioned completely, and examined with a fluorescent microscope. Measurements were made of airway diameters where particles were found. An anatomic model for guinea pig lung morphology was used to assign ranges of airway diameters to five zones, which were incorporated into a compartmental model for lung clearance. Kinetic analysis of particle distributions in the zones led to development of first-order equations describing the compartmental clearance. Rate constants obtained from the kinetic analysis were used to estimate mucociliary transport rates in specific bronchial generations, which ranged from approximately 0.001 mm/min in the distal bronchioles to approximately 8 mm/min in the trachea, and resulted in a calculated 24-h clearance time for tracheobronchial clearance in the guinea pig. No evidence for either bronchial penetration by particles or relatively prolonged bronchial retention of particles was found in this study. 22 references, 3 figures, 3 tables
Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility by Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Pakistan

OpenAIRE

Munazza Jabeen; Saud Ahmad Khan

2014-01-01

What drives volatility in foreign exchange market in Pakistan? This paper undertakes an analysis of modelling exchange rate volatility in Pakistan by potential macroeconomic fundamentals well-known in the economic literature. For this, monthly data on Pak Rupee exchange rates in the terms of major currencies (US Dollar, British Pound, Canadian Dollar and Japanese Yen) and macroeconomics fundamentals is taken from April, 1982 to November, 2011. The results show thatthe PKR-USD exchange rate vo...
Mathematical model for predicting molecular-beam epitaxy growth rates for wafer production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shi, B.Q.

2003-01-01

An analytical mathematical model for predicting molecular-beam epitaxy (MBE) growth rates is reported. The mathematical model solves the mass-conservation equation for liquid sources in conical crucibles and predicts the growth rate by taking into account the effect of growth source depletion on the growth rate. Assumptions made for deducing the analytical model are discussed. The model derived contains only one unknown parameter, the value of which can be determined by using data readily available to MBE growers. Procedures are outlined for implementing the model in MBE production of III-V compound semiconductor device wafers. Results from use of the model to obtain targeted layer compositions and thickness of InP-based heterojunction bipolar transistor wafers are presented
High-Strain Rate Failure Modeling Incorporating Shear Banding and Fracture

Science.gov (United States)

2017-11-22

High Strain Rate Failure Modeling Incorporating Shear Banding and Fracture The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of...SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 12. DISTRIBUTION AVAILIBILITY STATEMENT 6. AUTHORS...Report as of 05-Dec-2017 Agreement Number: W911NF-13-1-0238 Organization: Columbia University Title: High Strain Rate Failure Modeling Incorporating
Validity study of the Beck Anxiety Inventory (Portuguese version by the Rasch Rating Scale model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sónia Quintão

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Our objective was to conduct a validation study of the Portuguese version of the Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI by means of the Rasch Rating Scale Model, and then compare it with the most used scales of anxiety in Portugal. The sample consisted of 1,160 adults (427 men and 733 women, aged 18-82 years old (M=33.39; SD=11.85. Instruments were Beck Anxiety Inventory, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and Zung Self-Rating Anxiety Scale. It was found that Beck Anxiety Inventory's system of four categories, the data-model fit, and people reliability were adequate. The measure can be considered as unidimensional. Gender and age-related differences were not a threat to the validity. BAI correlated significantly with other anxiety measures. In conclusion, BAI shows good psychometric quality.
Initial assessment of a model relating intratumoral genetic heterogeneity to radiological morphology

Science.gov (United States)

Noterdaeme, O; Kelly, M; Friend, P; Soonowalla, Z; Steers, G; Brady, M

2010-01-01

Tumour heterogeneity has major implications for tumour development and response to therapy. Tumour heterogeneity results from mutations in the genes responsible for mismatch repair or maintenance of chromosomal stability. Cells with different genetic properties may grow at different rates and exhibit different resistance to therapeutic interventions. To date, there exists no approach to non-invasively assess tumour heterogeneity. Here we present a biologically inspired model of tumour growth, which relates intratumoral genetic heterogeneity to gross morphology visible on radiological images. The model represents the development of a tumour as a set of expanding spheres, each sphere representing a distinct clonal centre, with the sprouting of new spheres corresponding to new clonal centres. Each clonal centre may possess different characteristics relating to genetic composition, growth rate and response to treatment. We present a clinical example for which the model accurately tracks tumour growth and shows the correspondence to genetic variation (as determined by array comparative genomic hybridisation). One clinical implication of our work is that the assessment of heterogeneous tumours using Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumours (RECIST) or volume measurements may not accurately reflect tumour growth, stability or the response to treatment. We believe that this is the first model linking the macro-scale appearance of tumours to their genetic composition. We anticipate that our model will provide a more informative way to assess the response of heterogeneous tumours to treatment, which is of increasing importance with the development of novel targeted anti-cancer treatments. PMID:19690073
Two-component mixture cure rate model with spline estimated nonparametric components.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Lu; Du, Pang; Liang, Hua

2012-09-01

In some survival analysis of medical studies, there are often long-term survivors who can be considered as permanently cured. The goals in these studies are to estimate the noncured probability of the whole population and the hazard rate of the susceptible subpopulation. When covariates are present as often happens in practice, to understand covariate effects on the noncured probability and hazard rate is of equal importance. The existing methods are limited to parametric and semiparametric models. We propose a two-component mixture cure rate model with nonparametric forms for both the cure probability and the hazard rate function. Identifiability of the model is guaranteed by an additive assumption that allows no time-covariate interactions in the logarithm of hazard rate. Estimation is carried out by an expectation-maximization algorithm on maximizing a penalized likelihood. For inferential purpose, we apply the Louis formula to obtain point-wise confidence intervals for noncured probability and hazard rate. Asymptotic convergence rates of our function estimates are established. We then evaluate the proposed method by extensive simulations. We analyze the survival data from a melanoma study and find interesting patterns for this study. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.
Modeling and estimating the jump risk of exchange rates: Applications to RMB

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yiming; Tong, Hanfei

2008-11-01

In this paper we propose a new type of continuous-time stochastic volatility model, SVDJ, for the spot exchange rate of RMB, and other foreign currencies. In the model, we assume that the change of exchange rate can be decomposed into two components. One is the normally small-cope innovation driven by the diffusion motion; the other is a large drop or rise engendered by the Poisson counting process. Furthermore, we develop a MCMC method to estimate our model. Empirical results indicate the significant existence of jumps in the exchange rate. Jump components explain a large proportion of the exchange rate change.
Deep Learning versus Professional Healthcare Equipment: A Fine-Grained Breathing Rate Monitoring Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bang Liu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In mHealth field, accurate breathing rate monitoring technique has benefited a broad array of healthcare-related applications. Many approaches try to use smartphone or wearable device with fine-grained monitoring algorithm to accomplish the task, which can only be done by professional medical equipment before. However, such schemes usually result in bad performance in comparison to professional medical equipment. In this paper, we propose DeepFilter, a deep learning-based fine-grained breathing rate monitoring algorithm that works on smartphone and achieves professional-level accuracy. DeepFilter is a bidirectional recurrent neural network (RNN stacked with convolutional layers and speeded up by batch normalization. Moreover, we collect 16.17 GB breathing sound recording data of 248 hours from 109 and another 10 volunteers to train and test our model, respectively. The results show a reasonably good accuracy of breathing rate monitoring.
Rating knowledge sharing in cross-domain collaborative filtering.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Bin; Zhu, Xingquan; Li, Ruijiang; Zhang, Chengqi

2015-05-01

Cross-domain collaborative filtering (CF) aims to share common rating knowledge across multiple related CF domains to boost the CF performance. In this paper, we view CF domains as a 2-D site-time coordinate system, on which multiple related domains, such as similar recommender sites or successive time-slices, can share group-level rating patterns. We propose a unified framework for cross-domain CF over the site-time coordinate system by sharing group-level rating patterns and imposing user/item dependence across domains. A generative model, say ratings over site-time (ROST), which can generate and predict ratings for multiple related CF domains, is developed as the basic model for the framework. We further introduce cross-domain user/item dependence into ROST and extend it to two real-world cross-domain CF scenarios: 1) ROST (sites) for alleviating rating sparsity in the target domain, where multiple similar sites are viewed as related CF domains and some items in the target domain depend on their correspondences in the related ones; and 2) ROST (time) for modeling user-interest drift over time, where a series of time-slices are viewed as related CF domains and a user at current time-slice depends on herself in the previous time-slice. All these ROST models are instances of the proposed unified framework. The experimental results show that ROST (sites) can effectively alleviate the sparsity problem to improve rating prediction performance and ROST (time) can clearly track and visualize user-interest drift over time.
Constitutive modeling of strain rate effects in nanocrystalline and ultrafine grained polycrystals

KAUST Repository

Gurses, Ercan

2011-05-01

We present a variational two-phase constitutive model capable of capturing the enhanced rate sensitivity in nanocrystalline (nc) and ultrafine-grained (ufg) fcc metals. The nc/ufg-material consists of a grain interior phase and a grain boundary affected zone (GBAZ). The behavior of the GBAZ is described by a rate-dependent isotropic porous plasticity model, whereas a rate-independent crystal-plasticity model which accounts for the transition from partial dislocation to full dislocation mediated plasticity is employed for the grain interior. The scale bridging from a single grain to a polycrystal is done by a Taylor-type homogenization. It is shown that the enhanced rate sensitivity caused by the grain size refinement is successfully captured by the proposed model. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Constitutive modeling of strain rate effects in nanocrystalline and ultrafine grained polycrystals

KAUST Repository

Gurses, Ercan; El Sayed, Tamer S.

2011-01-01

We present a variational two-phase constitutive model capable of capturing the enhanced rate sensitivity in nanocrystalline (nc) and ultrafine-grained (ufg) fcc metals. The nc/ufg-material consists of a grain interior phase and a grain boundary affected zone (GBAZ). The behavior of the GBAZ is described by a rate-dependent isotropic porous plasticity model, whereas a rate-independent crystal-plasticity model which accounts for the transition from partial dislocation to full dislocation mediated plasticity is employed for the grain interior. The scale bridging from a single grain to a polycrystal is done by a Taylor-type homogenization. It is shown that the enhanced rate sensitivity caused by the grain size refinement is successfully captured by the proposed model. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Forecast model of safety economy contribution rate of China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

LIU Li-jun; SHI Shi-liang

2005-01-01

It is the rational and exact computation of the safety economy contribution rate that has the far-reaching realistic meaning to the improvement of society cognition to safety and the investment to the nation safety and the national macro-safety decision-makings. The accurate function between safety inputs and outputs was obtained through a founded econometric model. Then the forecasted safety economy contribution rate is 3.01% and the forecasted ratio between safety inputs and outputs is 1:1.81 in China in 2005. And the model accords with the practice of China and the results are satisfying.
Kinetics analysis for development of a rate constant estimation model for ultrasonic degradation reaction of methylene blue.

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, Daisuke; Honma, Chiemi; Matsumoto, Hideyuki; Takahashi, Tomoki; Kuroda, Chiaki; Otake, Katsuto; Shono, Atsushi

2014-07-01

Ultrasound has been used as an advanced oxidation method for wastewater treatment. Sonochemical degradation of organic compounds in aqueous solution occurs by pyrolysis and/or reaction with hydroxyl radicals. Moreover, kinetics of sonochemical degradation has been proposed. However, the effect of ultrasonic frequency on degradation rate has not been investigated. In our previous study, a simple model for estimating the apparent degradation rate of methylene blue was proposed. In this study, sonochemical degradation of methylene blue was performed at various frequencies. Apparent degradation rate constant was evaluated assuming that sonochemical degradation of methylene blue was a first-order reaction. Specifically, we focused on effects of ultrasonic frequency and power on rate constant, and the applicability of our proposed model was demonstrated. Using this approach, maximum sonochemical degradation rate was observed at 490 kHz, which agrees with a previous investigation into the effect of frequency on the sonochemical efficiency value evaluated by KI oxidation dosimetry. Degradation rate increased with ultrasonic power at every frequency. It was also observed that threshold power must be reached for the degradation reaction to progress. The initial methylene blue concentration and the apparent degradation rate constant have a relation of an inverse proportion. Our proposed model for estimating the apparent degradation rate constant using ultrasonic power and sonochemical efficiency value can apply to this study which extended the frequency and initial concentration range. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Gaussian Mixture Model of Heart Rate Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Tommaso; Boccignone, Giuseppe; Ferraro, Mario

2012-01-01

Heart rate variability (HRV) is an important measure of sympathetic and parasympathetic functions of the autonomic nervous system and a key indicator of cardiovascular condition. This paper proposes a novel method to investigate HRV, namely by modelling it as a linear combination of Gaussians. Results show that three Gaussians are enough to describe the stationary statistics of heart variability and to provide a straightforward interpretation of the HRV power spectrum. Comparisons have been made also with synthetic data generated from different physiologically based models showing the plausibility of the Gaussian mixture parameters. PMID:22666386
DETERMINANTS OF SOVEREIGN RATING: FACTOR BASED ORDERED PROBIT MODELS FOR PANEL DATA ANALYSIS MODELING FRAMEWORK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dilek Teker

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this research is to compose a new rating methodology and provide credit notches to 23 countries which of 13 are developed and 10 are emerging. There are various literature that explains the determinants of credit ratings. Following the literature, we select 11 variables for our model which of 5 are eliminated by the factor analysis. We use specific dummies to investigate the structural breaks in time and cross section such as pre crises, post crises, BRIC membership, EU membership, OPEC membership, shipbuilder country and platinum reserved country. Then we run an ordered probit model and give credit notches to the countries. We use FITCH ratings as benchmark. Thus, at the end we compare the notches of FITCH with the ones we derive out of our estimated model.
Variable selection for mixture and promotion time cure rate models.

Science.gov (United States)

Masud, Abdullah; Tu, Wanzhu; Yu, Zhangsheng

2016-11-16

Failure-time data with cured patients are common in clinical studies. Data from these studies are typically analyzed with cure rate models. Variable selection methods have not been well developed for cure rate models. In this research, we propose two least absolute shrinkage and selection operators based methods, for variable selection in mixture and promotion time cure models with parametric or nonparametric baseline hazards. We conduct an extensive simulation study to assess the operating characteristics of the proposed methods. We illustrate the use of the methods using data from a study of childhood wheezing. © The Author(s) 2016.

State-related differences in heart rate variability in bipolar disorder

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Faurholt-Jepsen, Maria; Brage, Søren; Kessing, Lars Vedel

2017-01-01

Heart rate variability (HRV) is a validated measure of sympato-vagal balance in the autonomic nervous system. HRV appears decreased in patients with bipolar disorder (BD) compared with healthy individuals, but the extent of state-related alterations has been sparingly investigated. The present...... bipolar disorder and could...
A nonparametric mixture model for cure rate estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Y; Dear, K B

2000-03-01

Nonparametric methods have attracted less attention than their parametric counterparts for cure rate analysis. In this paper, we study a general nonparametric mixture model. The proportional hazards assumption is employed in modeling the effect of covariates on the failure time of patients who are not cured. The EM algorithm, the marginal likelihood approach, and multiple imputations are employed to estimate parameters of interest in the model. This model extends models and improves estimation methods proposed by other researchers. It also extends Cox's proportional hazards regression model by allowing a proportion of event-free patients and investigating covariate effects on that proportion. The model and its estimation method are investigated by simulations. An application to breast cancer data, including comparisons with previous analyses using a parametric model and an existing nonparametric model by other researchers, confirms the conclusions from the parametric model but not those from the existing nonparametric model.
A global reference for caesarean section rates (C-Model): a multicountry cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Souza, J P; Betran, A P; Dumont, A; de Mucio, B; Gibbs Pickens, C M; Deneux-Tharaux, C; Ortiz-Panozo, E; Sullivan, E; Ota, E; Togoobaatar, G; Carroli, G; Knight, H; Zhang, J; Cecatti, J G; Vogel, J P; Jayaratne, K; Leal, M C; Gissler, M; Morisaki, N; Lack, N; Oladapo, O T; Tunçalp, Ö; Lumbiganon, P; Mori, R; Quintana, S; Costa Passos, A D; Marcolin, A C; Zongo, A; Blondel, B; Hernández, B; Hogue, C J; Prunet, C; Landman, C; Ochir, C; Cuesta, C; Pileggi-Castro, C; Walker, D; Alves, D; Abalos, E; Moises, Ecd; Vieira, E M; Duarte, G; Perdona, G; Gurol-Urganci, I; Takahiko, K; Moscovici, L; Campodonico, L; Oliveira-Ciabati, L; Laopaiboon, M; Danansuriya, M; Nakamura-Pereira, M; Costa, M L; Torloni, M R; Kramer, M R; Borges, P; Olkhanud, P B; Pérez-Cuevas, R; Agampodi, S B; Mittal, S; Serruya, S; Bataglia, V; Li, Z; Temmerman, M; Gülmezoglu, A M

2016-02-01

To generate a global reference for caesarean section (CS) rates at health facilities. Cross-sectional study. Health facilities from 43 countries. Thirty eight thousand three hundred and twenty-four women giving birth from 22 countries for model building and 10,045,875 women giving birth from 43 countries for model testing. We hypothesised that mathematical models could determine the relationship between clinical-obstetric characteristics and CS. These models generated probabilities of CS that could be compared with the observed CS rates. We devised a three-step approach to generate the global benchmark of CS rates at health facilities: creation of a multi-country reference population, building mathematical models, and testing these models. Area under the ROC curves, diagnostic odds ratio, expected CS rate, observed CS rate. According to the different versions of the model, areas under the ROC curves suggested a good discriminatory capacity of C-Model, with summary estimates ranging from 0.832 to 0.844. The C-Model was able to generate expected CS rates adjusted for the case-mix of the obstetric population. We have also prepared an e-calculator to facilitate use of C-Model (www.who.int/reproductivehealth/publications/maternal_perinatal_health/c-model/en/). This article describes the development of a global reference for CS rates. Based on maternal characteristics, this tool was able to generate an individualised expected CS rate for health facilities or groups of health facilities. With C-Model, obstetric teams, health system managers, health facilities, health insurance companies, and governments can produce a customised reference CS rate for assessing use (and overuse) of CS. The C-Model provides a customized benchmark for caesarean section rates in health facilities and systems. © 2015 World Health Organization; licensed by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.
Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

1988-03-01

This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available
Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

1990-01-01

When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate
Strain Rate Dependent Behavior and Modeling for Compression Response of Hybrid Fiber Reinforced Concrete

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.M. Ibrahim

Full Text Available Abstract This paper investigates the stress-strain characteristics of Hybrid fiber reinforced concrete (HFRC composites under dynamic compression using Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar (SHPB for strain rates in the range of 25 to 125 s-1. Three types of fibers - hooked ended steel fibers, monofilament crimped polypropylene fibers and staple Kevlar fibers were used in the production of HFRC composites. The influence of different fibers in HFRC composites on the failure mode, dynamic increase factor (DIF of strength, toughness and strain are also studied. Degree of fragmentation of HFRC composite specimens increases with increase in the strain rate. Although the use of high percentage of steel fibers leads to the best performance but among the hybrid fiber combinations studied, HFRC composites with relatively higher percentage of steel fibers and smaller percentage of polypropylene and Kevlar fibers seem to reflect the equally good synergistic effects of fibers under dynamic compression. A rate dependent analytical model is proposed for predicting complete stress-strain curves of HFRC composites. The model is based on a comprehensive fiber reinforcing index and complements well with the experimental results.
Modeling low-dose-rate effects in irradiated bipolar-base oxides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graves, R.J.; Cirba, C.R.; Schrimpf, R.D.; Milanowski, R.J.; Saigne, F.; Michez, A.; Fleetwood, D.M.; Witczak, S.C.

1997-02-01

A physical model is developed to quantify the contribution of oxide-trapped charge to enhanced low-dose-rate gain degradation in BJTs. Simulations show that space charge limited transport is partially responsible for the low-dose-rate enhancement
Understanding Interest Rate Volatility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Volker, Desi

This thesis is the result of my Ph.D. studies at the Department of Finance of the Copenhagen Business School. It consists of three essays covering topics related to the term structure of interest rates, monetary policy and interest rate volatility. The rst essay, \\Monetary Policy Uncertainty...... and Interest Rates", examines the role of monetary policy uncertainty on the term structure of interest rates. The second essay, \\A Regime-Switching A ne Term Structure Model with Stochastic Volatility" (co-authored with Sebastian Fux), investigates the ability of the class of regime switching models...... with and without stochastic volatility to capture the main stylized features of U.S. interest rates. The third essay, \\Variance Risk Premia in the Interest Rate Swap Market", investigates the time-series and cross-sectional properties of the compensation demanded for holding interest rate variance risk. The essays...
Policy impact of the Indonesian Central Bank certificate related on loan interest rate to the demand growth of property

Science.gov (United States)

Wirjodirdjo, B.; Asjari, H. Y.

2018-04-01

The Indonesian economic indicators shown a positive progress in the last three years, Foreign exchange reserves position of the end of March 2017 stood at US 121.8 billion higher than the position of the end of 2015 amounted to US 105.9 billion of the end of 2015. This reserve would ensure the resilience and maintaining sustainable Indonesian economic growth in the future. Although Indonesia’s foreign exchange is better, the structure of expenditure in the country is still less than ideal due the proportion of spending of consumer goods is far greater than the capital goods and tend to be unproductive spending. This needs to be regulated so that in the long term does not cause balance of payments deficit. Therefore, Indonesian Central Bank took a policy to raise interest rates for retail banks from 6% to 7.25% per annum gradually up to present. Policies relating to the interest rates on loans are intended to reduce the proportion of debt financing of consumer goods, however, these policies have implications to various economic sectors and one of those is property sector. A lot of research has been conducted related the impact of loan interest to the property sector but most of it is still in partial related to the ability the people to buy. However, this research has tried to see the implication of the macro Economic Policy of Indonesian Central Bank to the property sector as a systemic problem. This paper is going to present the study on the effects of these policies on the property sector, especially residence house. To obtain a comprehensive analysis and capture the relationship between interest rate policies and their impacts to the property sector, in this study the model developed and simulated using system dynamic methodology as an approach. Various scenarios are applied to the model to get an accurate information about how and when the effectiveness of the policy related to the property sector can be enforced. The result of this study can be delivered to
Forecasting Effusive Dynamics and Decompression Rates by Magmastatic Model at Open-vent Volcanoes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ripepe, Maurizio; Pistolesi, Marco; Coppola, Diego; Delle Donne, Dario; Genco, Riccardo; Lacanna, Giorgio; Laiolo, Marco; Marchetti, Emanuele; Ulivieri, Giacomo; Valade, Sébastien

2017-06-20

Effusive eruptions at open-conduit volcanoes are interpreted as reactions to a disequilibrium induced by the increase in magma supply. By comparing four of the most recent effusive eruptions at Stromboli volcano (Italy), we show how the volumes of lava discharged during each eruption are linearly correlated to the topographic positions of the effusive vents. This correlation cannot be explained by an excess of pressure within a deep magma chamber and raises questions about the actual contributions of deep magma dynamics. We derive a general model based on the discharge of a shallow reservoir and the magmastatic crustal load above the vent, to explain the linear link. In addition, we show how the drastic transition from effusive to violent explosions can be related to different decompression rates. We suggest that a gravity-driven model can shed light on similar cases of lateral effusive eruptions in other volcanic systems and can provide evidence of the roles of slow decompression rates in triggering violent paroxysmal explosive eruptions, which occasionally punctuate the effusive phases at basaltic volcanoes.
Modeling and Control for Giant Magnetostrictive Actuators with Rate-Dependent Hysteresis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping Liu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The rate-dependent hysteresis in giant magnetostrictive materials is a major impediment to the application of such material in actuators. In this paper, a relevance vector machine (RVM model is proposed for describing the hysteresis nonlinearity under varying input current. It is possible to construct a unique dynamic model in a given rate range for a rate-dependent hysteresis system using the sinusoidal scanning signals as the training set input signal. Subsequently, a proportional integral derivative (PID control scheme combined with a feedforward compensation is implemented on a giant magnetostrictive actuator (GMA for real-time precise trajectory tracking. Simulations and experiments both verify the effectiveness and the practicality of the proposed modeling and control methods.
Fuzzy production planning models for an unreliable production system with fuzzy production rate and stochastic/fuzzy demand rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. A. Halim

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In this article, we consider a single-unit unreliable production system which produces a single item. During a production run, the production process may shift from the in-control state to the out-of-control state at any random time when it produces some defective items. The defective item production rate is assumed to be imprecise and is characterized by a trapezoidal fuzzy number. The production rate is proportional to the demand rate where the proportionality constant is taken to be a fuzzy number. Two production planning models are developed on the basis of fuzzy and stochastic demand patterns. The expected cost per unit time in the fuzzy sense is derived in each model and defuzzified by using the graded mean integration representation method. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the optimal results of the proposed fuzzy models.
The fusion rate in the transmission resonance model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaendel, M.

1992-01-01

Resonant transmission of deuterons through a chain of target deuterons in a metal matrix has been suggested as an explanation for the cold fusion phenomena. In this paper the fusion rate in such transmission resonance models is estimated, and the basic physical constraints are discussed. The dominating contribution to the fusion yield is found to come from metastable states. The fusion rate is well described by the Wentzel-Kramer-Brillouin approximation and appears to be much too small to explain the experimental anomalies
Modelling rate distributions using character compatibility: implications for morphological evolution among fossil invertebrates.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, Peter J

2012-02-23

Rate distributions are important considerations when testing hypotheses about morphological evolution or phylogeny. They also have implications about general processes underlying character evolution. Molecular systematists often assume that rates are Poisson processes with gamma distributions. However, morphological change is the product of multiple probabilistic processes and should theoretically be affected by hierarchical integration of characters. Both factors predict lognormal rate distributions. Here, a simple inverse modelling approach assesses the best single-rate, gamma and lognormal models given observed character compatibility for 115 invertebrate groups. Tests reject the single-rate model for nearly all cases. Moreover, the lognormal outperforms the gamma for character change rates and (especially) state derivation rates. The latter in particular is consistent with integration affecting morphological character evolution.
Decreases in Smoking-Related Cancer Mortality Rates Are Associated with Birth Cohort Effects in Korean Men.

Science.gov (United States)

Jee, Yon Ho; Shin, Aesun; Lee, Jong-Keun; Oh, Chang-Mo

2016-12-05

Background: This study aimed to examine trends in smoking-related cancer mortality rates and to investigate the effect birth cohort on smoking-related cancer mortality in Korean men. Methods: The number of smoking-related cancer deaths and corresponding population numbers were obtained from Statistics Korea for the period 1984-2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to detect changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates. Birth-cohort specific mortality rates were illustrated by 5 year age groups. Results: The age-standardized mortality rates for oropharyngeal decreased from 2003 to 2013 (annual percent change (APC): -3.1 (95% CI, -4.6 to -1.6)) and lung cancers decreased from 2002 to 2013 (APC -2.4 (95% CI -2.7 to -2.2)). The mortality rates for esophageal declined from 1994 to 2002 (APC -2.5 (95% CI -4.1 to -0.8)) and from 2002 to 2013 (APC -5.2 (95% CI -5.7 to -4.7)) and laryngeal cancer declined from 1995 to 2013 (average annual percent change (AAPC): -3.3 (95% CI -4.7 to -1.8)). By the age group, the trends for the smoking-related cancer mortality except for oropharyngeal cancer have changed earlier to decrease in the younger age group. The birth-cohort specific mortality rates and age-period-cohort analysis consistently showed that all birth cohorts born after 1930 showed reduced mortality of smoking-related cancers. Conclusions: In Korean men, smoking-related cancer mortality rates have decreased. Our findings also indicate that current decreases in smoking-related cancer mortality rates have mainly been due to a decrease in the birth cohort effect, which suggest that decrease in smoking rates.
Effects of subliminal stimulation on masculinity-femininity ratings of a male model.

Science.gov (United States)

Hovsepian, W; Quatman, G

1978-02-01

The effects of subliminal stimulation on masculinity-femininity ratings of a male model were tested for 100 male undergraduates, randomly divided into four groups and individually shown a slide of a male model. One group received no further stimulation. A second group received a subliminal flash of white light across the image of the model; a third group was presented with the subliminal message "masculine," while a fourth group was presented with the subliminal message "feminine." Subjects were asked to rate the model on a six-point scale of masculinity-femininity. The differences in ratings among groups were not significant, indicating that subliminal stimulation did not influence masculinity-femininity value-norm-anchor judgments. There were no significant differences in the reported perception of additional stimuli or the tendency to be relaxed among the four groups. However, subjects who received the "masculine" message and reported that they were more relaxed did tend to rate the model higher in masculinity.
Model for the evaluation and prediction of production rate of sinter ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A model has been derived for evaluation and prediction of production rate of sinter machine operating on vertical mode. The quadratic model expressed as: P = 0.4395 V – 0.0526 V2 + 0.54, showed that the production rate of the sinter machine was dependent on the vertical sintering height. The maximum deviation of the ...
Identification of strain-rate and thermal sensitive material model with an inverse method

CERN Document Server

Peroni, L; Peroni, M

2010-01-01

This paper describes a numerical inverse method to extract material strength parameters from the experimental data obtained via mechanical tests at different strain-rates and temperatures. It will be shown that this procedure is particularly useful to analyse experimental results when the stress-strain fields in the specimen cannot be correctly described via analytical models. This commonly happens in specimens with no regular shape, in specimens with a regular shape when some instability phenomena occur (for example the necking phenomena in tensile tests that create a strongly heterogeneous stress-strain fields) or in dynamic tests (where the strain-rate field is not constant due to wave propagation phenomena). Furthermore the developed procedure is useful to take into account thermal phenomena generally affecting high strain-rate tests due to the adiabatic overheating related to the conversion of plastic work. The method presented requires strong effort both from experimental and numerical point of view, an...
Direct estimates of unemployment rate and capacity utilization in macroeconometric models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klein, L R [Univ. of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia; Su, V

1979-10-01

The problem of measuring resource-capacity utilization as a factor in overall economic efficiency is examined, and a tentative solution is offered. A macro-econometric model is applied to the aggregate production function by linking unemployment rate and capacity utilization rate. Partial- and full-model simulations use Wharton indices as a filter and produce direct estimates of unemployment rates. The simulation paths of durable-goods industries, which are more capital-intensive, are found to be more sensitive to business cycles than the nondurable-goods industries. 11 references.
Personality Stability from Childhood to Midlife: Relating Teachers’ Assessments in Elementary School to Observer- and Self-Ratings 40 Years Later

Science.gov (United States)

Edmonds, Grant W.; Goldberg, Lewis R.; Hampson, Sarah E.; Barckley, Maureen

2013-01-01

We report on the longitudinal stability of personality traits across an average 40 years in the Hawaii Personality and Health Cohort relating childhood teacher assessments of personality to adult self- and observer- reports. Stabilities based on self-ratings in adulthood were compared to those measured by the Structured Interview for the Five-Factor Model (SIFFM; Trull & Widiger, 1997), and trait ratings completed by interviewers. Although convergence between self-reports and observer-ratings was modest, childhood traits demonstrated similar levels of stability across methods in adulthood. Extraversion and Conscientiousness generally showed higher stabilities, whereas Neuroticism showed none. For Agreeableness and Intellect/Openness, stability was highest when assessed with observer-ratings. These findings are discussed in terms of differences in trait evaluativeness and observability across measurement methods. PMID:24039315

Parameters-related uncertainty in modeling sugar cane yield with an agro-Land Surface Model

Science.gov (United States)

Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Ruget, F.; Gabrielle, B.

2012-12-01

Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the coupling of specific crop models and large-scale generic vegetation models. They aim at accounting for the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with a particular emphasis on how crop phenology and agricultural management practice influence the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty in these models is related to the many parameters included in the models' equations. In this study, we quantify the parameter-based uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS on a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Reunion and Brazil. First, the main source of uncertainty for the output variables NPP, GPP, and sensible heat flux (SH) is determined through a screening of the main parameters of the model on a multi-site basis leading to the selection of a subset of most sensitive parameters causing most of the uncertainty. In a second step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters selected from the screening analysis at a regional scale. For this, a Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used. First, we quantify the sensitivity of the output variables to individual input parameters on a regional scale for two regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Then, we quantify the overall uncertainty in the simulation's outputs propagated from the uncertainty in the input parameters. Seven parameters are identified by the screening procedure as driving most of the uncertainty in the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS model output at all sites. These parameters control photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), root
Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

2009-01-01

We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed
Computational Modelling and Optimal Control of Ebola Virus Disease with non-Linear Incidence Rate

Science.gov (United States)

Takaidza, I.; Makinde, O. D.; Okosun, O. K.

2017-03-01

The 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa has exposed the need to connect modellers and those with relevant data as pivotal to better understanding of how the disease spreads and quantifying the effects of possible interventions. In this paper, we model and analyse the Ebola virus disease with non-linear incidence rate. The epidemic model created is used to describe how the Ebola virus could potentially evolve in a population. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number R 0 to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyse the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time control interventions (education, vaccination, quarantine and safe handling) and provide the cost effective combination of the interventions.
Engineering aspects of rate-related processes in food manufacturing.

Science.gov (United States)

Adachi, Shuji

2015-01-01

Many rate-related phenomena occur in food manufacturing processes. This review addresses four of them, all of which are topics that the author has studied in order to design food manufacturing processes that are favorable from the standpoint of food engineering. They include chromatographic separation through continuous separation with a simulated moving adsorber, lipid oxidation kinetics in emulsions and microencapsulated systems, kinetic analysis and extraction in subcritical water, and water migration in pasta.
Work-related ill health in doctors working in Great Britain: incidence rates and trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Anli Yue; Carder, Melanie; Gittins, Matthew; Agius, Raymond

2017-11-01

Background Doctors have a higher prevalence of mental ill health compared with other professional occupations but incidence rates are poorly studied. Aims To determine incidence rates and trends of work-related ill health (WRIH) and work-related mental ill health (WRMIH) in doctors compared with other professions in Great Britain. Method Incidence rates were calculated using an occupational physician reporting scheme from 2005-2010. Multilevel regression was use to study incidence rates from 2001 to 2014. Results Annual incidence rates for WRIH and WRIMH in doctors were 515 and 431 per 100 000 people employed, respectively. Higher incidence rates for WRIH and WRMIH were observed for ambulance staff and nurses, respectively. Doctors demonstrated an annual average incidence rates increase for WRIH and WRMIH, especially in women, whereas the other occupations demonstrated a decreasing or static trend. The difference in trends between the occupations was statistically significant. Conclusions WRIH and WRMIH incidence rate are increasing in doctors, especially in women, warranting further research. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2017.
Understanding Interest Rate Volatility

OpenAIRE

Volker, Desi

2016-01-01

This thesis is the result of my Ph.D. studies at the Department of Finance of the Copenhagen Business School. It consists of three essays covering topics related to the term structure of interest rates, monetary policy and interest rate volatility. The rst essay, \\Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Interest Rates", examines the role of monetary policy uncertainty on the term structure of interest rates. The second essay, \\A Regime-Switching A ne Term Structure Model with Stochast...
Strain rate dependent tensile behavior of advanced high strength steels: Experiment and constitutive modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Ji-Hoon; Kim, Daeyong; Han, Heung Nam; Barlat, F.; Lee, Myoung-Gyu

2013-01-01

High strain rate tensile tests were conducted for three advanced high strength steels: DP780, DP980 and TRIP780. A high strain rate tensile test machine was used for applying the strain rate ranging from 0.1/s to 500/s. Details of the measured stress–strain responses were comparatively analyzed for the DP780 and TRIP780 steels which show similar microstructural feature and ultimate tensile strength, but different strengthening mechanisms. The experimental observations included: usual strain rate dependent plastic flow stress behavior in terms of the yield stress (YS), the ultimate tensile strength (UTS), the uniform elongation (UE) and the total elongation (TE) which were observed for the three materials. But, higher strain hardening rate at early plastic strain under quasi-static condition than that of some increased strain rates was featured for TRIP780 steel, which might result from more active transformation during deformation with lower velocity. The uniform elongation that explains the onset of instability and the total elongation were larger in case of TRIP steel than the DP steel for the whole strain rate range, but interestingly the fracture strain measured by the reduction of area (RA) method showed that the TRIP steel has lower values than DP steel. The fractographs using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) at the fractured surfaces were analyzed to relate measured fracture strain and the microstructural difference of the two materials during the process of fracture under various strain rates. Finally, constitutive modeling for the plastic flow stresses under various strain rates was provided in this study. The proposed constitutive law could represent both Hollomon-like and Voce-like hardening laws and the ratio between the two hardening types was efficiently controlled as a function of strain rate. The new strength model was validated successfully under various strain rates for several grades of steels such as mild steels, DP780, TRIP780, DP980 steels.
Development in self-rated health among older people as determinant of social relations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Avlund, Kirsten; Modvig, Jens Simon; Due, Pernille

2004-01-01

The purpose of this study was to analyse whether development in self-rated health (SRH) over four years was associated with the structure of and satisfaction with social relations, at four and eight years follow-up, among elderly women and men.......The purpose of this study was to analyse whether development in self-rated health (SRH) over four years was associated with the structure of and satisfaction with social relations, at four and eight years follow-up, among elderly women and men....
A quantitative prediction model of SCC rate for nuclear structure materials in high temperature water based on crack tip creep strain rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, F.Q.; Xue, H.; Zhao, L.Y.; Fang, X.R.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Creep is considered to be the primary mechanical factor of crack tip film degradation. • The prediction model of SCC rate is based on crack tip creep strain rate. • The SCC rate calculated at the secondary stage of creep is recommended. • The effect of stress intensity factor on SCC growth rate is discussed. - Abstract: The quantitative prediction of stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of structure materials is essential in safety assessment of nuclear power plants. A new quantitative prediction model is proposed by combining the Ford–Andresen model, a crack tip creep model and an elastic–plastic finite element method. The creep at the crack tip is considered to be the primary mechanical factor of protective film degradation, and the creep strain rate at the crack tip is suggested as primary mechanical factor in predicting the SCC rate. The SCC rates at secondary stage of creep are recommended when using the approach introduced in this study to predict the SCC rates of materials in high temperature water. The proposed approach can be used to understand the SCC crack growth in structural materials of light water reactors
Decreases in Smoking-Related Cancer Mortality Rates Are Associated with Birth Cohort Effects in Korean Men

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yon Ho Jee

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Background: This study aimed to examine trends in smoking-related cancer mortality rates and to investigate the effect birth cohort on smoking-related cancer mortality in Korean men. Methods: The number of smoking-related cancer deaths and corresponding population numbers were obtained from Statistics Korea for the period 1984–2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to detect changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates. Birth-cohort specific mortality rates were illustrated by 5 year age groups. Results: The age-standardized mortality rates for oropharyngeal decreased from 2003 to 2013 (annual percent change (APC: −3.1 (95% CI, −4.6 to −1.6 and lung cancers decreased from 2002 to 2013 (APC −2.4 (95% CI −2.7 to −2.2. The mortality rates for esophageal declined from 1994 to 2002 (APC −2.5 (95% CI −4.1 to −0.8 and from 2002 to 2013 (APC −5.2 (95% CI −5.7 to −4.7 and laryngeal cancer declined from 1995 to 2013 (average annual percent change (AAPC: −3.3 (95% CI −4.7 to −1.8. By the age group, the trends for the smoking-related cancer mortality except for oropharyngeal cancer have changed earlier to decrease in the younger age group. The birth-cohort specific mortality rates and age-period-cohort analysis consistently showed that all birth cohorts born after 1930 showed reduced mortality of smoking-related cancers. Conclusions: In Korean men, smoking-related cancer mortality rates have decreased. Our findings also indicate that current decreases in smoking-related cancer mortality rates have mainly been due to a decrease in the birth cohort effect, which suggest that decrease in smoking rates.
Adjusting for overdispersion in piecewise exponential regression models to estimate excess mortality rate in population-based research.

Science.gov (United States)

Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Belot, Aurélien; Quaresma, Manuela; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P; Rachet, Bernard

2016-10-01

In population-based cancer research, piecewise exponential regression models are used to derive adjusted estimates of excess mortality due to cancer using the Poisson generalized linear modelling framework. However, the assumption that the conditional mean and variance of the rate parameter given the set of covariates x i are equal is strong and may fail to account for overdispersion given the variability of the rate parameter (the variance exceeds the mean). Using an empirical example, we aimed to describe simple methods to test and correct for overdispersion. We used a regression-based score test for overdispersion under the relative survival framework and proposed different approaches to correct for overdispersion including a quasi-likelihood, robust standard errors estimation, negative binomial regression and flexible piecewise modelling. All piecewise exponential regression models showed the presence of significant inherent overdispersion (p-value regression modelling, with either a quasi-likelihood or robust standard errors, was the best approach as it deals with both, overdispersion due to model misspecification and true or inherent overdispersion.
Temporal discounting rates and their relation to exercise behavior in older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Tate, Linda M; Tsai, Pao-Feng; Landes, Reid D; Rettiganti, Mallikarjuna; Lefler, Leanne L

2015-12-01

As our nation's population ages, the rates of chronic illness and disability are expected to increase significantly. Despite the knowledge that exercise may prevent chronic disease and promote health among older adults, many still are inactive. Factors related to exercise behaviors have been explored in recent years. However, temporal discounting is a motivational concept that has not been explored in regard to exercise in older adults. Temporal discounting is a decision making process by which an individual chooses a smaller more immediate reward over a larger delayed reward. The aim of this study was to determine if temporal discounting rates vary between exercising and non-exercising older adults. This study used cross-sectional survey of 137 older adults living in the community. Older adults were recruited from 11 rural Arkansas churches. The Kirby delay-discounting Monetary Choice Questionnaire was used to collect discounting rates and then bivariate analysis was performed to compare temporal discounting rate between the exercisers and non-exercisers. Finally, multivariate analysis was used to compare discounting rate controlling for other covariates. The results indicated that exercising older adults display lower temporal discounting rates than non-exercising older adults. After controlling for education, exercisers still have lower temporal discounting rates than non-exercisers (phealth conditions relate to lack of exercise especially in older adults. This research suggests that if we can find appropriate incentives for discounting individuals, some type of immediate reward, then potentially we can design programs to engage and retain older adults in exercise. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Wastewater injection and slip triggering: Results from a 3D coupled reservoir/rate-and-state model

Science.gov (United States)

Babazadeh, M.; Olson, J. E.; Schultz, R.

2017-12-01

Seismicity induced by fluid injection is controlled by parameters related to injection conditions, reservoir properties, and fault frictional behavior. We present results from a combined model that brings together injection physics, reservoir dynamics, and fault physics to better explain the primary controls on induced seismicity. We created a 3D fluid flow simulator using the embedded discrete fracture technique and then coupled it with a 3D displacement discontinuity model that uses rate and state friction to model slip events. The model is composed of three layers, including the top-seal, the injection reservoir, and the basement. Permeability is anisotropic (vertical vs horizontal) and along with porosity varies by layer. Injection control can be either rate or pressure. Fault properties include size, 2D permeability, and frictional properties. Several suites of simulations were run to evaluate the relative importance of each of the factors from all three parameter groups. We find that the injection parameters interact with the reservoir parameters in the context of the fault physics and these relations change for different reservoir and fault characteristics, leading to the need to examine the injection parameters only within the context of a particular faulted reservoir. For a reservoir with no flow boundaries, low permeability (5 md), and a fault with high fault-parallel permeability and critical stress, injection rate exerts the strongest control on magnitude and frequency of earthquakes. However, for a higher permeability reservoir (80 md), injection volume becomes the more important factor. Fault permeability structure is a key factor in inducing earthquakes in basement rocks below the injection reservoir. The initial failure state of the fault, which is challenging to assess, can have a big effect on the size and timing of events. For a fault 2 MPa below critical state, we were able to induce a slip event, but it occurred late in the injection history
The close relation between birth, abortion and employment rates in Sweden from 1980 to 2004.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahmqvist, Mikael

2006-09-01

Birth and abortion rates in Sweden have fluctuated since 1980 while the proportion between the rates are the same at the beginning and end of the period. An increase in birth rates in the late 1980s resulted in a peak in 1991 and 1992, with 124,000 live births each year. Thereafter followed a steady decline in the rate until 2000, when the number of live births was about 90,000. At that point, the trend changed to an increase. The aim of this analysis was to investigate any relation between employment rates and the number of live births among women aged 20-34, and at the same time to explore the trend for abortion rates compared to the trend for live births. The relation between employment status and live birth rate is statistically more significant for women than men, and the rates have a higher correlation for the period after 1986. Young adults in this age group are vulnerable to economic cycles that can explain this covariation but the decline in birth rates in economically developed societies has multidimensional aspects and many other possible explanations. Much has been done in recent years in Sweden to decrease household inequality for families with children to avoid the risk of relative poverty, but the fact that there is no explicit health policy to reduce the abortion level that remain unchanged since the early 1980s may appear as a notable lack of strategy in a country with many other health-related goals.
Prediction of in vivo neutral detergent fiber digestibility and digestion rate of potentially digestible neutral detergent fiber: comparison of models.

Science.gov (United States)

Huhtanen, P; Seppälä, A; Ahvenjärvi, S; Rinne, M

2008-10-01

Eleven 1-pool, seven 2-pool, and three 3-pool models were compared in fitting gas production data and predicting in vivo NDF digestibility and effective first-order digestion rate of potentially digestible NDF (pdNDF). Isolated NDF from 15 grass silages harvested at different stages of maturity was incubated in triplicate in rumen fluid-buffer solution for 72 h to estimate the digestion kinetics from cumulative gas production profiles. In vivo digestibility was estimated by the total fecal collection method in sheep fed at a maintenance level of feeding. The concentration of pdNDF was estimated by a 12-d in situ incubation. The parameter values from gas production profiles and pdNDF were used in a 2-compartment rumen model to predict pdNDF digestibility using 50 h of rumen residence time distributed in a ratio of 0.4:0.6 between the non-escapable and escapable pools. The effective first-order digestion rate was computed both from observed in vivo and model-predicted pdNDF digestibility assuming the passage kinetic model described above. There were marked differences between the models in fitting the gas production data. The fit improved with increasing number of pools, suggesting that silage pdNDF is not a homogenous substrate. Generally, the models predicted in vivo NDF digestibility and digestion rate accurately. However, a good fit of gas production data was not necessarily translated into improved predictions of the in vivo data. The models overestimating the asymptotic gas volumes tended to underestimate the in vivo digestibility. Investigating the time-related residuals during the later phases of fermentation is important when the data are used to estimate the first-order digestion rate of pdNDF. Relatively simple models such as the France model or even a single exponential model with discrete lag period satisfied the minimum criteria for a good model. Further, the comparison of feedstuffs on the basis of parameter values is more unequivocal than in the case
Tantalum strength model incorporating temperature, strain rate and pressure

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Hojun; Battaile, Corbett; Brown, Justin; Lane, Matt

Tantalum is a body-centered-cubic (BCC) refractory metal that is widely used in many applications in high temperature, strain rate and pressure environments. In this work, we propose a physically-based strength model for tantalum that incorporates effects of temperature, strain rate and pressure. A constitutive model for single crystal tantalum is developed based on dislocation kink-pair theory, and calibrated to measurements on single crystal specimens. The model is then used to predict deformations of single- and polycrystalline tantalum. In addition, the proposed strength model is implemented into Sandia's ALEGRA solid dynamics code to predict plastic deformations of tantalum in engineering-scale applications at extreme conditions, e.g. Taylor impact tests and Z machine's high pressure ramp compression tests, and the results are compared with available experimental data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
Rate-Based Model Predictive Control of Turbofan Engine Clearance

Science.gov (United States)

DeCastro, Jonathan A.

2006-01-01

An innovative model predictive control strategy is developed for control of nonlinear aircraft propulsion systems and sub-systems. At the heart of the controller is a rate-based linear parameter-varying model that propagates the state derivatives across the prediction horizon, extending prediction fidelity to transient regimes where conventional models begin to lose validity. The new control law is applied to a demanding active clearance control application, where the objectives are to tightly regulate blade tip clearances and also anticipate and avoid detrimental blade-shroud rub occurrences by optimally maintaining a predefined minimum clearance. Simulation results verify that the rate-based controller is capable of satisfying the objectives during realistic flight scenarios where both a conventional Jacobian-based model predictive control law and an unconstrained linear-quadratic optimal controller are incapable of doing so. The controller is evaluated using a variety of different actuators, illustrating the efficacy and versatility of the control approach. It is concluded that the new strategy has promise for this and other nonlinear aerospace applications that place high importance on the attainment of control objectives during transient regimes.
Empirical Results of Modeling EUR/RON Exchange Rate using ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TARCH and PARCH models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreea – Cristina PETRICĂ

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study consists in examining the changes in the volatility of daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate using on the one hand symmetric GARCH models (ARCH and GARCH and on the other hand the asymmetric GARCH models (EGARCH, TARCH and PARCH, since the conditional variance is time-varying. The analysis takes into account daily quotations of EUR/RON exchange rate over the period of 04th January 1999 to 13th June 2016. Thus, we are modeling heteroscedasticity by applying different specifications of GARCH models followed by looking for significant parameters and low information criteria (minimum Akaike Information Criterion. All models are estimated using the maximum likelihood method under the assumption of several distributions of the innovation terms such as: Normal (Gaussian distribution, Student’s t distribution, Generalized Error distribution (GED, Student’s with fixed df. Distribution, and GED with fixed parameter distribution. The predominant models turned out to be EGARCH and PARCH models, and the empirical results point out that the best model for estimating daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate is EGARCH(2,1 with Asymmetric order 2 under the assumption of Student’s t distributed innovation terms. This can be explained by the fact that in case of EGARCH model, the restriction regarding the positivity of the conditional variance is automatically satisfied.
Modeling the influence of potassium content and heating rate on biomass pyrolysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trubetskaya, Anna; Surup, Gerrit; Shapiro, Alexander

2017-01-01

This study presents a combined kinetic and particle model that describes the effect of potassium and heating rate during the fast pyrolysis of woody and herbaceous biomass. The model calculates the mass loss rate, over a wide range of operating conditions relevant to suspension firing...
Crack propagation rate modelling for 316SS exposed to PWR-relevant conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vankeerberghen, M.; Weyns, G.; Gavrilov, S.; Martens, B.; Deconinck, J.

2009-01-01

The crack propagation rate of Type 316 stainless steel in boric acid-lithium hydroxide solutions under PWR-relevant conditions was modelled. A film rupture/dissolution/repassivation mechanism is assumed and extended to cold worked materials by including a stress-dependent bare metal dissolution current density. The chemical and electrochemical conditions within the crack are calculated by finite element calculations, an analytical expression is used for the crack-tip strain rate and the crack-tip stress is assumed equal to 2.5 times the yield stress (plane-strain). First the model was calibrated against a literature published data set. Afterwards, the influence of various variables - dissolved hydrogen, boric acid and lithium hydroxide content, stress intensity, crack length, temperature, flow rate - was studied. Finally, other published crack growth rate tests were modelled and the calculated crack growth rates were found to be in reasonable agreement with the reported ones

Recent sedimentation rates in the Caravelas estuary (Bahia, Brazil) using unsupported 210Pb and 137Cs modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Friedmann Angeli, Jose Lourenco; Alves de Lima Ferreira, Paulo; Lopes Figueira, Rubens Cesar; Venturini, Natalia; Univ. of la Republica, Montevideo

2016-01-01

The Caravelas estuary is located in a zone of the Brazilian coast (Southern Bahia State) which has been submitted to different kinds of land uses during the last 50 years. This zone has an important ecological role, due to its mangroves and its location next to Abrolhos coral reef, the most important in the Southern Atlantic Ocean. 210 Pb and 137 Cs dating methods, accompanied by a sedimentological study, were applied to sediment cores in order to establish sedimentation rates and identify historical trends of land use and erosive processes. Sedimentation rates were established according to the ''Constant Rate of Supply'' (CRS) 210 Pb dating model, which was preferred rather than the ''Constant Initial Concentration'' (CIC) model. Corrected sedimentation rates obtained from 210 Pb dating were corroborated through a second independent radionuclide tracer such as 137 Cs. The sedimentation rates obtained according to the CRS model for the cores were 1.07 ± 0.13 cm yr -1 for T2 (inner sector), 0.65 ± 0.06 cm yr -1 for T5 and 0.85 ± 0.09 cm yr -1 for T8 (outer sector). The difference in sedimentation rates among the sampling sites could be due to hydrodynamic processes and could be related to the tendency of increase of erosive processes, conditioned by the changes in the landscape and land use to, which this region has been submitted.
"An Asymptotic Expansion Approach to Currency Options with a Market Model of Interest Rates under Stochastic Volatility Processes of Spot Exchange Rates"

OpenAIRE

Akihiko Takahashi; Kohta Takehara

2007-01-01

This paper proposes an asymptotic expansion scheme of currency options with a libor market model of interest rates and stochastic volatility models of spot exchange rates. In particular, we derive closed-form approximation formulas for the density functions of the underlying assets and for pricing currency options based on the third order asymptotic expansion scheme; we do not model a foreign exchange rate's variance such as in Heston[1993], but its volatility that follows a general time-inho...
Formation of algae growth constitutive relations for improved algae modeling.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gharagozloo, Patricia E.; Drewry, Jessica Louise.

2013-01-01

This SAND report summarizes research conducted as a part of a two year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project to improve our abilities to model algal cultivation. Algae-based biofuels have generated much excitement due to their potentially large oil yield from relatively small land use and without interfering with the food or water supply. Algae mitigate atmospheric CO2 through metabolism. Efficient production of algal biofuels could reduce dependence on foreign oil by providing a domestic renewable energy source. Important factors controlling algal productivity include temperature, nutrient concentrations, salinity, pH, and the light-to-biomass conversion rate. Computational models allow for inexpensive predictions of algae growth kinetics in these non-ideal conditions for various bioreactor sizes and geometries without the need for multiple expensive measurement setups. However, these models need to be calibrated for each algal strain. In this work, we conduct a parametric study of key marine algae strains and apply the findings to a computational model.
Generalized rate-code model for neuron ensembles with finite populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasegawa, Hideo

2007-01-01

We have proposed a generalized Langevin-type rate-code model subjected to multiplicative noise, in order to study stationary and dynamical properties of an ensemble containing a finite number N of neurons. Calculations using the Fokker-Planck equation have shown that, owing to the multiplicative noise, our rate model yields various kinds of stationary non-Gaussian distributions such as Γ, inverse-Gaussian-like, and log-normal-like distributions, which have been experimentally observed. The dynamical properties of the rate model have been studied with the use of the augmented moment method (AMM), which was previously proposed by the author from a macroscopic point of view for finite-unit stochastic systems. In the AMM, the original N-dimensional stochastic differential equations (DEs) are transformed into three-dimensional deterministic DEs for the means and fluctuations of local and global variables. The dynamical responses of the neuron ensemble to pulse and sinusoidal inputs calculated by the AMM are in good agreement with those obtained by direct simulation. The synchronization in the neuronal ensemble is discussed. The variabilities of the firing rate and of the interspike interval are shown to increase with increasing magnitude of multiplicative noise, which may be a conceivable origin of the observed large variability in cortical neurons
How fault evolution changes strain partitioning and fault slip rates in Southern California: Results from geodynamic modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Jiyang; Liu, Mian

2017-08-01

In Southern California, the Pacific-North America relative plate motion is accommodated by the complex southern San Andreas Fault system that includes many young faults (faults and their impact on strain partitioning and fault slip rates are important for understanding the evolution of this plate boundary zone and assessing earthquake hazard in Southern California. Using a three-dimensional viscoelastoplastic finite element model, we have investigated how this plate boundary fault system has evolved to accommodate the relative plate motion in Southern California. Our results show that when the plate boundary faults are not optimally configured to accommodate the relative plate motion, strain is localized in places where new faults would initiate to improve the mechanical efficiency of the fault system. In particular, the Eastern California Shear Zone, the San Jacinto Fault, the Elsinore Fault, and the offshore dextral faults all developed in places of highly localized strain. These younger faults compensate for the reduced fault slip on the San Andreas Fault proper because of the Big Bend, a major restraining bend. The evolution of the fault system changes the apportionment of fault slip rates over time, which may explain some of the slip rate discrepancy between geological and geodetic measurements in Southern California. For the present fault configuration, our model predicts localized strain in western Transverse Ranges and along the dextral faults across the Mojave Desert, where numerous damaging earthquakes occurred in recent years.
Stationarity test with a direct test for heteroskedasticity in exchange rate forecasting models

Science.gov (United States)

Khin, Aye Aye; Chau, Wong Hong; Seong, Lim Chee; Bin, Raymond Ling Leh; Teng, Kevin Low Lock

2017-05-01

Global economic has been decreasing in the recent years, manifested by the greater exchange rates volatility on international commodity market. This study attempts to analyze some prominent exchange rate forecasting models on Malaysian commodity trading: univariate ARIMA, ARCH and GARCH models in conjunction with stationarity test on residual diagnosis direct testing of heteroskedasticity. All forecasting models utilized the monthly data from 1990 to 2015. Given a total of 312 observations, the data used to forecast both short-term and long-term exchange rate. The forecasting power statistics suggested that the forecasting performance of ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is more efficient than the ARCH (1) and GARCH (1, 1) models. For ex-post forecast, exchange rate was increased from RM 3.50 per USD in January 2015 to RM 4.47 per USD in December 2015 based on the baseline data. For short-term ex-ante forecast, the analysis results indicate a decrease in exchange rate on 2016 June (RM 4.27 per USD) as compared with 2015 December. A more appropriate forecasting method of exchange rate is vital to aid the decision-making process and planning on the sustainable commodities' production in the world economy.
Annonaceae substitution rates: a codon model perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lars Willem Chatrou

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The Annonaceae includes cultivated species of economic interest and represents an important source of information for better understanding the evolution of tropical rainforests. In phylogenetic analyses of DNA sequence data that are used to address evolutionary questions, it is imperative to use appropriate statistical models. Annonaceae are cases in point: Two sister clades, the subfamilies Annonoideae and Malmeoideae, contain the majority of Annonaceae species diversity. The Annonoideae generally show a greater degree of sequence divergence compared to the Malmeoideae, resulting in stark differences in branch lengths in phylogenetic trees. Uncertainty in how to interpret and analyse these differences has led to inconsistent results when estimating the ages of clades in Annonaceae using molecular dating techniques. We ask whether these differences may be attributed to inappropriate modelling assumptions in the phylogenetic analyses. Specifically, we test for (clade-specific differences in rates of non-synonymous and synonymous substitutions. A high ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions may lead to similarity of DNA sequences due to convergence instead of common ancestry, and as a result confound phylogenetic analyses. We use a dataset of three chloroplast genes (rbcL, matK, ndhF for 129 species representative of the family. We find that differences in branch lengths between major clades are not attributable to different rates of non-synonymous and synonymous substitutions. The differences in evolutionary rate between the major clades of Annonaceae pose a challenge for current molecular dating techniques that should be seen as a warning for the interpretation of such results in other organisms.
Regression Models and Fuzzy Logic Prediction of TBM Penetration Rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minh Vu Trieu

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper presents statistical analyses of rock engineering properties and the measured penetration rate of tunnel boring machine (TBM based on the data of an actual project. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of rock engineering properties including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS, Brazilian tensile strength (BTS, rock brittleness index (BI, the distance between planes of weakness (DPW, and the alpha angle (Alpha between the tunnel axis and the planes of weakness on the TBM rate of penetration (ROP. Four (4 statistical regression models (two linear and two nonlinear are built to predict the ROP of TBM. Finally a fuzzy logic model is developed as an alternative method and compared to the four statistical regression models. Results show that the fuzzy logic model provides better estimations and can be applied to predict the TBM performance. The R-squared value (R2 of the fuzzy logic model scores the highest value of 0.714 over the second runner-up of 0.667 from the multiple variables nonlinear regression model.
Regression Models and Fuzzy Logic Prediction of TBM Penetration Rate

Science.gov (United States)

Minh, Vu Trieu; Katushin, Dmitri; Antonov, Maksim; Veinthal, Renno

2017-03-01

This paper presents statistical analyses of rock engineering properties and the measured penetration rate of tunnel boring machine (TBM) based on the data of an actual project. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of rock engineering properties including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile strength (BTS), rock brittleness index (BI), the distance between planes of weakness (DPW), and the alpha angle (Alpha) between the tunnel axis and the planes of weakness on the TBM rate of penetration (ROP). Four (4) statistical regression models (two linear and two nonlinear) are built to predict the ROP of TBM. Finally a fuzzy logic model is developed as an alternative method and compared to the four statistical regression models. Results show that the fuzzy logic model provides better estimations and can be applied to predict the TBM performance. The R-squared value (R2) of the fuzzy logic model scores the highest value of 0.714 over the second runner-up of 0.667 from the multiple variables nonlinear regression model.
Modeling the impacts of two age-related portfolio effects on recruitment variability with and without a marine reserve.

Science.gov (United States)

McGilliard, Carey R; Punt, André E; Hilborn, Ray; Essington, Tim

2017-10-01

Many rockfish species are long-lived and thought to be susceptible to being overfished. Hypotheses about the importance of older female rockfish to population persistence have led to arguments that marine reserves are needed to ensure the sustainability of rockfish populations. However, the implications of these hypotheses for rockfish population dynamics are still unclear. We modeled two mechanisms by which reducing the proportion of older fish in a population has been hypothesized to influence sustainability, and explored whether these mechanisms influenced mean population dynamics and recruitment variability. We explored whether populations with these mechanisms could be managed more sustainably with a marine reserve in addition to a constant fishing mortality rate (F) than with a constant F alone. Both hypotheses can be seen as portfolio effects whereby risk of recruitment failure is spread over a "portfolio" of maternal ages. First, we modeled a spawning window effect whereby mothers of different ages spawned in different times or locations (windows) with local environmental conditions. Second, we modeled an offspring size effect whereby older mothers produced larger offspring than younger mothers, where length of a starvation period over which offspring could survive increased with maternal age. Recruitment variability resulting from both models was 55-65% lower than for models without maternal age-related portfolio effects in the absence of fishing and increased with increases in Fs for both models. An offspring size effect caused lower output reproductive rates such that the specified reproductive rate input as a model parameter was no longer the realized rate measured as the reproductive rate observed in model results; this quirk is not addressed in previous analyses of offspring size effects. We conducted a standardization such that offspring size effect and control models had the same observed reproductive rates. A comparison of long-term catch, the
Roll paper pilot. [mathematical model for predicting pilot rating of aircraft in roll task

Science.gov (United States)

Naylor, F. R.; Dillow, J. D.; Hannen, R. A.

1973-01-01

A mathematical model for predicting the pilot rating of an aircraft in a roll task is described. The model includes: (1) the lateral-directional aircraft equations of motion; (2) a stochastic gust model; (3) a pilot model with two free parameters; and (4) a pilot rating expression that is a function of rms roll angle and the pilot lead time constant. The pilot gain and lead time constant are selected to minimize the pilot rating expression. The pilot parameters are then adjusted to provide a 20% stability margin and the adjusted pilot parameters are used to compute a roll paper pilot rating of the aircraft/gust configuration. The roll paper pilot rating was computed for 25 aircraft/gust configurations. A range of actual ratings from 2 to 9 were encountered and the roll paper pilot ratings agree quite well with the actual ratings. In addition there is good correlation between predicted and measured rms roll angle.
B and W model boiler tests: effect of temperature on IGA rate. Initial and post-1878 operating conditions of the model boilers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1986-01-01

The Babcock and Wilcox (B and W) model boiler operated with 10 ppm weekly injections of NaOH for 41,900 hours (4.8 years). The model boiler operating conditions are given. Tube No. 24 failed by caustic intergranular attack/stress corrosion cracking (IGA/SCC) at the steam-water zone. IGA defect depths on tube 24 is compared at different locations, which also have different temperature conditions. The specific locations are: steam/water zone, drilled baffle plate, and lower tube sheet crevice. In all locations caustic will concentrate (although to different concentration levels). Nevertheless, an effect of temperature on IGA rate can be estimated. The degree of attack relative to the location and environment is shown. SEM fractographs illustrate the completely intergranular failure of Tube 24. A summary of the estimated results is presented. These results show the estimated IGA rate as a function of primary/secondary temperature and estimated caustic concentration. Details of the failure analysis of the model boiler can be found in the final report Destructive Examination of Babcock and Wilcox's Model Boiler for Intergranular Attack (IGA) on Tubes, EPRI S302-6, J.L.; Barna and L.W. Sarver
Relative viscosity of emulsions in simple shear flow: Temperature, shear rate, and interfacial tension dependence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choi, Se Bin; Lee, Joon Sang [Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Yonsei Unversity, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2015-08-15

We simulate an emulsion system under simple shear rates to analyze its rheological characteristics using the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). We calculate the relative viscosity of an emulsion under a simple shear flow along with changes in temperature, shear rate, and surfactant concentration. The relative viscosity of emulsions decreased with an increase in temperature. We observed the shear-thinning phenomena, which is responsible for the inverse proportion between the shear rate and viscosity. An increase in the interfacial tension caused a decrease in the relative viscosity of the decane-in-water emulsion because the increased deformation caused by the decreased interfacial tension significantly influenced the wall shear stress.
Rate-independent dissipation in phase-field modelling of displacive transformations

Science.gov (United States)

Tůma, K.; Stupkiewicz, S.; Petryk, H.

2018-05-01

In this paper, rate-independent dissipation is introduced into the phase-field framework for modelling of displacive transformations, such as martensitic phase transformation and twinning. The finite-strain phase-field model developed recently by the present authors is here extended beyond the limitations of purely viscous dissipation. The variational formulation, in which the evolution problem is formulated as a constrained minimization problem for a global rate-potential, is enhanced by including a mixed-type dissipation potential that combines viscous and rate-independent contributions. Effective computational treatment of the resulting incremental problem of non-smooth optimization is developed by employing the augmented Lagrangian method. It is demonstrated that a single Lagrange multiplier field suffices to handle the dissipation potential vertex and simultaneously to enforce physical constraints on the order parameter. In this way, the initially non-smooth problem of evolution is converted into a smooth stationarity problem. The model is implemented in a finite-element code and applied to solve two- and three-dimensional boundary value problems representative for shape memory alloys.
A relation between calculated human body exergy consumption rate and subjectively assessed thermal sensation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simone, Angela; Kolarik, Jakub; Olesen, Bjarne W. [ICIEE/BYG, Technical University of Denmark (Denmark); Iwamatsu, Toshiya [Faculty of Urban Environmental Science, Tokyo Metropolitan University (Japan); Asada, Hideo [Architech Consulting Co., Tokyo (Japan); Dovjak, Mateja [Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering, University of Ljubljana (Slovenia); Schellen, Lisje [Eindhoven University of Technology, Faculty of Architecture Building and Planning (Netherlands); Shukuya, Masanori [Laboratory of Building Environment, Tokyo City University, Yokohama (Japan)

2011-01-15

Application of the exergy concept to research on the built environment is a relatively new approach. It helps to optimize climate conditioning systems so that they meet the requirements of sustainable building design. As the building should provide a healthy and comfortable environment for its occupants, it is reasonable to consider both the exergy flows in building and those within the human body. Until now, no data have been available on the relation between human-body exergy consumption rates and subjectively assessed thermal sensation. The objective of the present work was to relate thermal sensation data, from earlier thermal comfort studies, to calculated human-body exergy consumption rates. The results show that the minimum human body exergy consumption rate is associated with thermal sensation votes close to thermal neutrality, tending to the slightly cool side of thermal sensation. Generally, the relationship between air temperature and the exergy consumption rate, as a first approximation, shows an increasing trend. Taking account of both convective and radiative heat exchange between the human body and the surrounding environment by using the calculated operative temperature, exergy consumption rates increase as the operative temperature increases above 24 C or decreases below 22 C. With the data available so far, a second-order polynomial relationship between thermal sensation and the exergy consumption rate was established. (author)
Effect of detention basin release rates on flood flows - Application of a model to the Blackberry Creek Watershed in Kane County, Illinois

Science.gov (United States)

Soong, David T.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Straub, Timothy D.

2009-01-01

The effects of stormwater detention basins with specified release rates are examined on the watershed scale with a Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) continuous-simulation model. Modeling procedures for specifying release rates from detention basins with orifice and weir discharge configurations are discussed in this report. To facilitate future detention modeling as a tool for watershed management, a chart relating watershed impervious area to detention volume is presented. The report also presents a case study of the Blackberry Creek watershed in Kane County, Ill., a rapidly urbanizing area seeking to avoid future flood damages from increased urbanization, to illustrate the effects of various detention basin release rates on flood peaks and volumes and flood frequencies. The case study compares flows simulated with a 1996 land-use HSPF model to those simulated with four different 2020 projected land-use HSPF model scenarios - no detention, and detention basins with release rates of 0.08, 0.10, and 0.12 cubic feet per second per acre (ft3/s-acre), respectively. Results of the simulations for 15 locations, which included the downstream ends of all tributaries and various locations along the main stem, showed that a release rate of 0.10 ft3/s-acre, in general, can maintain postdevelopment 100-year peak-flood discharge at a similar magnitude to that of 1996 land-use conditions. Although the release rate is designed to reduce the 100-year peak flow, reduction of the 2-year peak flow is also achieved for a smaller proportion of the peak. Results also showed that the 0.10 ft3/s-acre release rate was less effective in watersheds with relatively high percentages of preexisting (1996) development than in watersheds with less preexisting development.
Self-rated health, psychosocial functioning, and health-related behavior among Thai adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Page, Randy M; Suwanteerangkul, Jiraporn

2009-02-01

Despite the popularity of self-rated health (SRH) in Western countries as a useful public health tool, it has only rarely been used in Asian countries. The purpose of the current study was to determine whether measures of psychosocial functioning and health-related factors differ according to SRH in a school-based sample of Thai adolescents. The survey was given to 2519 adolescents attending 10 coeducational secondary high schools in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand and included measures of psychosocial functioning (loneliness, hopelessness, shyness, perceptions of social status, self-rated happiness, and perception of physical attractiveness) and certain health-related factors (height/weight, physical activity, eating breakfast, sleep). The proportion of boys (5.1%) reporting that they were not healthy was similar to the proportion of girls (4.6%) making the same rating. These adolescents showed a pattern of overall poor health risk. Compared to adolescent peers who rated their health as healthy or very healthy, they were less physically active, got less sleep, were more likely to be overweight, and scored lower on loneliness, shyness, hopelessness, and self-rated happiness. The present pattern of poor health risk warrants attention and supports the merit of using SRH in adolescent health assessment. SRH is easy to obtain and simple to assess and single-item assessments of SRH appear to be valid measures of health status in adults and adolescent. Interventions, such as health counseling, mental health counseling, and health education, can target adolescents who rate themselves as 'not healthy' or report poor health status.
Optimal Interest-Rate Setting in a Dynamic IS/AS Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Henrik

2011-01-01

This note deals with interest-rate setting in a simple dynamic macroeconomic setting. The purpose is to present some basic and central properties of an optimal interest-rate rule. The model framework predates the New-Keynesian paradigm of the late 1990s and onwards (it is accordingly dubbed “Old...
Dose rate effect models for biological reaction to ionizing radiation in human cell lines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Magae, Junji; Ogata, Hiromitsu

2008-01-01

Full text: Because of biological responses to ionizing radiation are dependent on irradiation time or dose rate as well as dose, simultaneous inclusion of dose and dose rate is required to evaluate the risk of long term irradiation at low dose rates. We previously published a novel statistical model for dose rate effect, modified exponential (MOE) model, which predicts irradiation time-dependent biological response to low dose rate ionizing radiation, by analyzing micronucleus formation and growth inhibition in a human osteosarcoma cell line, exposed to wide range of doses and dose rates of gamma-rays. MOE model demonstrates that logarithm of median effective dose exponentially increases in low dose rates, and thus suggests that the risk approaches to zero at infinitely low dose rate. In this paper, we extend the analysis in various kinds of human cell lines exposed to ionizing radiation for more than a year. We measured micronucleus formation and [ 3 H]thymidine uptake in human cell lines including an osteosarcoma, a DNA-dependent protein kinase-deficient glioma, a SV40-transformed fibroblast derived from an ataxia telangiectasia patient, a normal fibroblast, and leukemia cell lines. Cells were exposed to gamma-rays in irradiation room bearing 50,000 Ci of cobalt-60. After the irradiation, they were cultured for 24 h in the presence of cytochalasin B to block cytokinesis, and cytoplasm and nucleus were stained with DAPI and prospidium iodide. The number of binuclear cells bearing a micronucleus was counted under a fluorescence microscope. For proliferation inhibition, cells were cultured for 48 h after the irradiation and [ 3 H] thymidine was pulsed for 4 h before harvesting. We statistically analyzed the data for quantitative evaluation of radiation risk. While dose and dose rate relationship cultured within one month followed MOE model in cell lines holding wild-type DNA repair system, dose rate effect was greatly impaired in DNA repair-deficient cell lines
A production inventory model with exponential demand rate and reverse logistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ritu Raj

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to develop an integrated production inventory model for reworkable items with exponential demand rate. This is a three-layer supply chain model with perspectives of supplier, producer and retailer. Supplier delivers raw material to the producer and finished goods to the retailer. We consider perfect and imperfect quality products, product reliability and reworking of imperfect items. After screening, defective items reworked at a cost just after the regular manufacturing schedule. At the beginning, the manufacturing system starts produce perfect items, after some time the manufacturing system can undergo into “out-of-control” situation from “in-control” situation, which is controlled by reverse logistic technique. This paper deliberates the effects of business strategies like optimum order size of raw material, exponential demand rate, production rate is demand dependent, idle times and reverse logistics for an integrated marketing system. Mathematica is used to develop the optimal solution of production rate and raw material order for maximum expected average profit. A numerical example and sensitivity analysis is illustrated to validate the model.

Modeling the Interest Rate Term Structure: Derivatives Contracts Dynamics and Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pedro L. Valls Pereira

2005-06-01

Full Text Available This article deals with a model for the term structure of interest rates and the valuation of derivative contracts directly dependent on it. The work is of a theoretical nature and deals, exclusively, with continuous time models, making ample use of stochastic calculus results and presents original contributions that we consider relevant to the development of the fixed income market modeling. We develop a new multifactorial model of the term structure of interest rates. The model is based on the decomposition of the yield curve into the factors level, slope, curvature, and the treatment of their collective dynamics. We show that this model may be applied to serve various objectives: analysis of bond price dynamics, valuation of derivative contracts and also market risk management and formulation of operational strategies which is presented in another article.
Analysis of Factors that Influence Infiltration Rates using the HELP Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dyer, J.; Shipmon, J.

2017-01-01

The Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) model is used by Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) in conjunction with PORFLOW groundwater flow simulation software to make longterm predictions of the fate and transport of radionuclides in the environment at radiological waste sites. The work summarized in this report supports preparation of the planned 2018 Performance Assessment for the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (LLWF) at the Savannah River Site (SRS). More specifically, this project focused on conducting a sensitivity analysis of infiltration (i.e., the rate at which water travels vertically in soil) through the proposed E-Area LLWF closure cap. A sensitivity analysis was completed using HELP v3.95D to identify the cap design and material property parameters that most impact infiltration rates through the proposed closure cap for a 10,000-year simulation period. The results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) for select cap layers, precipitation rate, surface vegetation type, and geomembrane layer defect density are dominant factors limiting infiltration rate. Interestingly, calculated infiltration rates were substantially influenced by changes in the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the Upper Foundation and Lateral Drainage layers. For example, an order-of-magnitude decrease in Ksat for the Upper Foundation layer lowered the maximum infiltration rate from a base-case 11 inches per year to only two inches per year. Conversely, an order-of-magnitude increase in Ksat led to an increase in infiltration rate from 11 to 15 inches per year. This work and its results provide a framework for quantifying uncertainty in the radionuclide transport and dose models for the planned 2018 E-Area Performance Assessment. Future work will focus on the development of a nonlinear regression model for infiltration rate using Minitab 17® to facilitate execution of probabilistic simulations in the GoldSim® overall
Analysis of Factors that Influence Infiltration Rates using the HELP Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dyer, J. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Shipmon, J. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

2017-09-28

The Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) model is used by Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) in conjunction with PORFLOW groundwater flow simulation software to make longterm predictions of the fate and transport of radionuclides in the environment at radiological waste sites. The work summarized in this report supports preparation of the planned 2018 Performance Assessment for the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (LLWF) at the Savannah River Site (SRS). More specifically, this project focused on conducting a sensitivity analysis of infiltration (i.e., the rate at which water travels vertically in soil) through the proposed E-Area LLWF closure cap. A sensitivity analysis was completed using HELP v3.95D to identify the cap design and material property parameters that most impact infiltration rates through the proposed closure cap for a 10,000-year simulation period. The results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) for select cap layers, precipitation rate, surface vegetation type, and geomembrane layer defect density are dominant factors limiting infiltration rate. Interestingly, calculated infiltration rates were substantially influenced by changes in the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the Upper Foundation and Lateral Drainage layers. For example, an order-of-magnitude decrease in Ksat for the Upper Foundation layer lowered the maximum infiltration rate from a base-case 11 inches per year to only two inches per year. Conversely, an order-of-magnitude increase in Ksat led to an increase in infiltration rate from 11 to 15 inches per year. This work and its results provide a framework for quantifying uncertainty in the radionuclide transport and dose models for the planned 2018 E-Area Performance Assessment. Future work will focus on the development of a nonlinear regression model for infiltration rate using Minitab 17® to facilitate execution of probabilistic simulations in the GoldSim® overall
Measurement and Modeling of Respiration Rate of Tomato (Cultivar Roma) for Modified Atmosphere Storage.

Science.gov (United States)

Kandasamy, Palani; Moitra, Ranabir; Mukherjee, Souti

2015-01-01

Experiments were conducted to determine the respiration rate of tomato at 10, 20 and 30 °C using closed respiration system. Oxygen depletion and carbon dioxide accumulation in the system containing tomato was monitored. Respiration rate was found to decrease with increasing CO2 and decreasing O2 concentration. Michaelis-Menten type model based on enzyme kinetics was evaluated using experimental data generated for predicting the respiration rate. The model parameters that obtained from the respiration rate at different O2 and CO2 concentration levels were used to fit the model against the storage temperatures. The fitting was fair (R2 = 0.923 to 0.970) when the respiration rate was expressed as O2 concentation. Since inhibition constant for CO2 concentration tended towards negetive, the model was modified as a function of O2 concentration only. The modified model was fitted to the experimental data and showed good agreement (R2 = 0.998) with experimentally estimated respiration rate.
Research on listed bank profit model under the interest rate liberalization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Geyao Zhu

2017-03-01

Full Text Available With constantly deepening the interest rate liberalization, shrinking the net interest margin and the ever-rising non-performing loan ratio, the traditional commercial banks with the main profit model of credit suffers from a severe challenge. The research significance of this paper lies in helping China’s commercial bank convert management philosophy, developing a new financial business and improving the profit model. Through the empirical research of 80 samples of China’s listed commercial banks: under the condition of interest rate liberalization, the net interest margin is still the current major profit model of the commercial bank, but the intermediate business is the future development model of the commercial banks.
Mathematical model applied to decomposition rate of RIA radiotracers: 125I-insulin used as sample model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mesquita, C.H. de; Hamada, M.M.

1987-09-01

A mathematical model is described to fit the decomposition rate of labelled RIA compounds. The model was formulated using four parameters: one parameter correlated with the radioactive decay constant; the chemical decomposition rate 'K * ' of the radiolabelled molecules; the natural chemical decomposition rate 'K' and; the fraction 'f * ' of the labelled molecules in the substrate. According to the particular values that these parameters can assume, ten cases were discussed. To determine one of these cases which fit the experimental data, three types of samples were need: radioactive; simulated radiotracer ('false radiolabelled') and; on labelled common substrate. The radioinsulin 125 I was used as an example to illustrate the model application. The experimental data substantiate that the insulin labelled according to the substorchiometric procedures and kept at freezer temperature were degraded with K=0.45% per day. (Author) [pt
Predictive Finite Rate Model for Oxygen-Carbon Interactions at High Temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Poovathingal, Savio

An oxidation model for carbon surfaces is developed to predict ablation rates for carbon heat shields used in hypersonic vehicles. Unlike existing empirical models, the approach used here was to probe gas-surface interactions individually and then based on an understanding of the relevant fundamental processes, build a predictive model that would be accurate over a wide range of pressures and temperatures, and even microstructures. Initially, molecular dynamics was used to understand the oxidation processes on the surface. The molecular dynamics simulations were compared to molecular beam experiments and good qualitative agreement was observed. The simulations reproduced cylindrical pitting observed in the experiments where oxidation was rapid and primarily occurred around a defect. However, the studies were limited to small systems at low temperatures and could simulate time scales only of the order of nanoseconds. Molecular beam experiments at high surface temperature indicated that a majority of surface reaction products were produced through thermal mechanisms. Since the reactions were thermal, they occurred over long time scales which were computationally prohibitive for molecular dynamics to simulate. The experiments provided detailed dynamical data on the scattering of O, O2, CO, and CO2 and it was found that the data from molecular beam experiments could be used directly to build a model. The data was initially used to deduce surface reaction probabilities at 800 K. The reaction probabilities were then incorporated into the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. Simulations were performed where the microstructure was resolved and dissociated oxygen convected and diffused towards it. For a gas-surface temperature of 800 K, it was found that despite CO being the dominant surface reaction product, a gas-phase reaction forms significant CO2 within the microstructure region. It was also found that surface area did not play any role in concentration of
Level-ARCH Short Rate Models with Regime Switching

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Charlotte

This paper introduces regime switching volatility into level- ARCH models for the short rates of the US, the UK, and Germany. Once regime switching and level effects are included there are no gains from including ARCH effects. It is of secondary importance exactly how the regime switching is spec...
How are self-rated health and diagnosed disease related to early or deferred retirement? A cross-sectional study of employees aged 55-64

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kerstin Nilsson

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background More people will probably continue working into old age in the future due to the increased size of aging populations in many countries. We therefore need to know more about older workers’ health in relation to their work situation and retirement. This study is a part of a theoretical development of older workers’ situations. Older workers’ situations are theoretically themed in nine areas by the authors of this study. The aims of the study were to investigate the relationship between: i diagnosed disease and factors in older workers’ situations, theoretically themed in nine areas; ii self-rated health and factors in older workers’ situations, theoretically themed in nine areas; iii diagnosed disease and self-rated health; and iv the relationships between these health measures and retirement. Methods A questionnaire-based cross-sectional study, using logistic regression, with 1,756 health care personnel aged 55–64 years. The questionnaire used gave an overview of most different areas in the older workers’ situations. Result There was a difference in the participants’ frequency of objectively specified diagnosed disease and their subjectively experienced self-rated health. A bad self-rated health was related higher to early retirement than diagnosed diseases. In the multivariate model, having ‘Diagnosed disease’ was not significantly related to whether older workers thought they could not work beyond 65 years of age. A bad ‘Self-rated health’ was also more highly related to whether older workers thought they could not work beyond 65 years, than if the respondents stated that a ‘Diagnosed disease is a hindrance in my daily work’ in the multivariate model. Conclusion This study showed an important difference between older workers’ own experiences and the effect of their self-rated health and their diagnosed diseases. Subjective self-rated health seems to be more important to people’s retirement
Evaluating Forecasting Models for Unemployment Rates by Gender in Selected European Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ksenija Dumičić

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The unemployment can be considered as one of the main economic problems. The aim of this article is to examine the differences in male and female unemployment rates in selected European countries and to predict their future trends by using different statistical forecasting models. Furthermore, the impact of adding a new data point on the selection of the most appropriate statistical forecasting model and on the overall forecasting errors values is also evaluated. Male and female unemployment rates are observed for twelve European countries in the period from 1991 to 2014. Four statistical forecasting models have been selected and applied and the most appropriate model is considered to be the one with the lowest overall forecasting errors values. The analysis has shown that in the period from 1991 to 2014 the decreasing trend of unemployment rates in the short-run is forecasted for more Eastern Balkan than the EU-28 countries. An additional data point for male and female unemployment rates in 2014 led to somewhat smaller forecasting errors in more than half of the observed countries. However, the additional data point does not necessarily improve forecasting performances of the used statistical forecasting models.
Modelling of behaviour of metals at high strain rates

OpenAIRE

Panov, Vili

2006-01-01

The aim of the work presented in this thesis was to produce the improvement of the existing simulation tools used for the analysis of materials and structures, which are dynamically loaded and subjected to the different levels of temperatures and strain rates. The main objective of this work was development of tools for modelling of strain rate and temperature dependant behaviour of aluminium alloys, typical for aerospace structures with pronounced orthotropic properties, and their implementa...
The elastic transfer model of angular rate modulation in F1-ATPase stalling and controlled rotation experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Volkán-Kacsó, S.

2017-06-01

The recent experimental, theoretical and computational advances in the field of F1-ATPase single-molecule microscopy are briefly surveyed. The role of theory is revealed in the statistical analysis, interpretation and prediction of single-molecule experimental trajectories, and in linking them with atomistic simulations. In particular, a theoretical model of elastically coupled molecular group transfer is reviewed and a detailed method for its application in stalling and controlled rotation experiments is provided. It is shown how the model can predict, using previous experiments, the rates of ligand binding/release processes (steps) and their exponential dependence on rotor angle in these experiments. The concept of Brønsted slopes is reviewed in the context of the single-molecule experiments, and the rate versus rotor angle relations are explained using the elastic model. These experimental data are treated in terms of the effect of thermodynamic driving forces on the rates assuming that the rotor shaft is elastically coupled to stator ring subunits in which the steps occur. In the application of the group transfer model on an extended angular range processes leading up to the transfer are discussed. Implications for large-scale atomistic simulation are suggested for the treatment of torque-generating steps.
Sensitivity Analysis of Corrosion Rate Prediction Models Utilized for Reinforced Concrete Affected by Chloride

Science.gov (United States)

Siamphukdee, Kanjana; Collins, Frank; Zou, Roger

2013-06-01

Chloride-induced reinforcement corrosion is one of the major causes of premature deterioration in reinforced concrete (RC) structures. Given the high maintenance and replacement costs, accurate modeling of RC deterioration is indispensable for ensuring the optimal allocation of limited economic resources. Since corrosion rate is one of the major factors influencing the rate of deterioration, many predictive models exist. However, because the existing models use very different sets of input parameters, the choice of model for RC deterioration is made difficult. Although the factors affecting corrosion rate are frequently reported in the literature, there is no published quantitative study on the sensitivity of predicted corrosion rate to the various input parameters. This paper presents the results of the sensitivity analysis of the input parameters for nine selected corrosion rate prediction models. Three different methods of analysis are used to determine and compare the sensitivity of corrosion rate to various input parameters: (i) univariate regression analysis, (ii) multivariate regression analysis, and (iii) sensitivity index. The results from the analysis have quantitatively verified that the corrosion rate of steel reinforcement bars in RC structures is highly sensitive to corrosion duration time, concrete resistivity, and concrete chloride content. These important findings establish that future empirical models for predicting corrosion rate of RC should carefully consider and incorporate these input parameters.
Functional Time Series Models to Estimate Future Age-Specific Breast Cancer Incidence Rates for Women in Karachi, Pakistan

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Farah Yasmeen[1; Sidra Zaheer[2

2014-01-01

Background： Breast cancer is the most common female cancer in Pakistan. The incidence of breast cancer in Pakistan is about 2.5 times higher than that in the neighboring countries India and Iran. In Karachi, the most populated city of Pakistan, the age-standardized rate of breast cancer was 69.1 per 100,000 women during 1998-2002, which is the highest recorded rate in Asia. The carcinoma of breast in Pakistan is an enormous public health concern. In this study, we examined the recent trends of breast cancer incidence rates among the women in Karachi. Methods： We obtained the secondary data of breast cancer incidence from various hospitals. They included Jinnah Hospital, KIRAN （Karachi Institute of Radiotherapy and Nuclear Medicine）, and Civil hospital, where the data were available for the years 2004-2011. A total of 5331 new cases of female breast cancer were registered during this period. We analyzed the data in 5-year age groups 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75＋. Nonparametric smoothing were used to obtained age-specific incidence curves, and then the curves are decomposed using principal components analysis to fit FTS （functional time series） model. We then used exponential smoothing statspace models to estimate the forecasts of incidence curve and construct prediction intervals. Results： The breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi increased with age for all available years. The rates increased monotonically and are relatively sharp with the age from 15 years to 50 years and then they show variability after the age of 50 years. 10-year forecasts for the female breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi show that the future rates are expected to remain stable for the age-groups 15-50 years, but they will increase for the females of 50-years and over. Hence in future, the newly diagnosed breast cancer cases in the older women in Karachi are expected to increase. Conclusion： Prediction of age
Gaussian model for emission rate measurement of heated plumes using hyperspectral data

Science.gov (United States)

Grauer, Samuel J.; Conrad, Bradley M.; Miguel, Rodrigo B.; Daun, Kyle J.

2018-02-01

This paper presents a novel model for measuring the emission rate of a heated gas plume using hyperspectral data from an FTIR imaging spectrometer. The radiative transfer equation (RTE) is used to relate the spectral intensity of a pixel to presumed Gaussian distributions of volume fraction and temperature within the plume, along a line-of-sight that corresponds to the pixel, whereas previous techniques exclusively presume uniform distributions for these parameters. Estimates of volume fraction and temperature are converted to a column density by integrating the local molecular density along each path. Image correlation velocimetry is then employed on raw spectral intensity images to estimate the volume-weighted normal velocity at each pixel. Finally, integrating the product of velocity and column density along a control surface yields an estimate of the instantaneous emission rate. For validation, emission rate estimates were derived from synthetic hyperspectral images of a heated methane plume, generated using data from a large-eddy simulation. Calculating the RTE with Gaussian distributions of volume fraction and temperature, instead of uniform distributions, improved the accuracy of column density measurement by 14%. Moreover, the mean methane emission rate measured using our approach was within 4% of the ground truth. These results support the use of Gaussian distributions of thermodynamic properties in calculation of the RTE for optical gas diagnostics.
Enhancement of leak rate estimation model for corroded cracked thin tubes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Y.S.; Jeong, J.U.; Kim, Y.J.; Hwang, S.S.; Kim, H.P.

2010-01-01

During the last couple of decades, lots of researches on structural integrity assessment and leak rate estimation have been carried out to prevent unanticipated catastrophic failures of pressure retaining nuclear components. However, from the standpoint of leakage integrity, there are still some arguments for predicting the leak rate of cracked components due primarily to uncertainties attached to various parameters in flow models. The purpose of present work is to suggest a leak rate estimation method for thin tubes with artificial cracks. In this context, 23 leak rate tests are carried out for laboratory generated stress corrosion cracked tube specimens subjected to internal pressure. Engineering equations to calculate crack opening displacements are developed from detailed three-dimensional elastic-plastic finite element analyses and then a simplified practical model is proposed based on the equations as well as test data. Verification of the proposed method is done through comparing leak rates and it will enable more reliable design and/or operation of thin tubes.
Effects of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration's control of hazardous energy (lockout/tagout) standard on rates of machinery-related fatal occupational injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Bulzacchelli, Maria T; Vernick, Jon S; Webster, Daniel W; Lees, Peter S J

2007-10-01

To evaluate the impact of the United States' federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration's control of hazardous energy (lockout/tagout) standard on rates of machinery-related fatal occupational injury. The standard, which took effect in 1990, requires employers in certain industries to establish an energy control program and sets minimum criteria for energy control procedures, training, inspections, and hardware. An interrupted time-series design was used to determine the standard's effect on fatality rates. Machinery-related fatalities, obtained from the National Traumatic Occupational Fatalities surveillance system for 1980 through 2001, were used as a proxy for lockout/tagout-related fatalities. Linear regression was used to control for changes in demographic and economic factors. The average annual crude rate of machinery-related fatalities in manufacturing changed little from 1980 to 1989, but declined by 4.59% per year from 1990 to 2001. However, when controlling for demographic and economic factors, the regression model estimate of the standard's effect is a small, non-significant increase of 0.05 deaths per 100 000 production worker full-time equivalents (95% CI -0.14 to 0.25). When fatality rates in comparison groups that should not have been affected by the standard are incorporated into the analysis, there is still no significant change in the rate of machinery-related fatalities in manufacturing. There is no evidence that the lockout/tagout standard decreased fatality rates relative to other trends in occupational safety over the study period. A possible explanation is voluntary use of lockout/tagout by some employers before introduction of the standard and low compliance by other employers after.
Effects of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration's control of hazardous energy (lockout/tagout) standard on rates of machinery‐related fatal occupational injury

Science.gov (United States)

Bulzacchelli, Maria T; Vernick, Jon S; Webster, Daniel W; Lees, Peter S J

2007-01-01

Objective To evaluate the impact of the United States' federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration's control of hazardous energy (lockout/tagout) standard on rates of machinery‐related fatal occupational injury. The standard, which took effect in 1990, requires employers in certain industries to establish an energy control program and sets minimum criteria for energy control procedures, training, inspections, and hardware. Design An interrupted time‐series design was used to determine the standard's effect on fatality rates. Machinery‐related fatalities, obtained from the National Traumatic Occupational Fatalities surveillance system for 1980 through 2001, were used as a proxy for lockout/tagout‐related fatalities. Linear regression was used to control for changes in demographic and economic factors. Results The average annual crude rate of machinery‐related fatalities in manufacturing changed little from 1980 to 1989, but declined by 4.59% per year from 1990 to 2001. However, when controlling for demographic and economic factors, the regression model estimate of the standard's effect is a small, non‐significant increase of 0.05 deaths per 100 000 production worker full‐time equivalents (95% CI −0.14 to 0.25). When fatality rates in comparison groups that should not have been affected by the standard are incorporated into the analysis, there is still no significant change in the rate of machinery‐related fatalities in manufacturing. Conclusions There is no evidence that the lockout/tagout standard decreased fatality rates relative to other trends in occupational safety over the study period. A possible explanation is voluntary use of lockout/tagout by some employers before introduction of the standard and low compliance by other employers after. PMID:17916891
Basal metabolic rate of endotherms can be modeled using heat-transfer principles and physiological concepts: reply to "can the basal metabolic rate of endotherms be explained by biophysical modeling?".

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Michael F; Lightfoot, Edwin N; Porter, Warren P

2011-01-01

Our recent article (Roberts et al. 2010 ) proposes a mechanistic model for the relation between basal metabolic rate (BMR) and body mass (M) in mammals. The model is based on heat-transfer principles in the form of an equation for distributed heat generation within the body. The model can also be written in the form of the allometric equation BMR = aM(b), in which a is the coefficient of the mass term and b is the allometric exponent. The model generates two interesting results: it predicts that b takes the value 2/3, indicating that BMR is proportional to surface area in endotherms. It also provides an explanation of the physiological components that make up a, that is, respiratory heat loss, core-skin thermal conductance, and core-skin thermal gradient. Some of the ideas in our article have been questioned (Seymour and White 2011 ), and this is our response to those questions. We specifically address the following points: whether a heat-transfer model can explain the level of BMR in mammals, whether our test of the model is inadequate because it uses the same literature data that generated the values of the physiological variables, and whether geometry and empirical values combine to make a "coincidence" that makes the model only appear to conform to real processes.
Self-rated health in relation to rape and mental health disorders in a national sample of women.

Science.gov (United States)

Amstadter, Ananda B; McCauley, Jenna L; Ruggiero, Kenneth J; Resnick, Heidi S; Kilpatrick, Dean G

2011-04-01

Overall health status is associated with long-term physical morbidity and mortality. Existing research on the correlates of mental health effects of rape suggests that rape victims are at higher risk for poor overall health status. Little is known, however, about how different rape tactics may relate to health status in rape victims. Our aim was to examine prevalence and correlates of self-rated health in a community sample of women, with particular emphasis on lifetime rape history (distinguishing between rape tactics), psychopathology, and substance use outcomes. A nationally representative sample of 3,001 U.S. women (age range: 18-86 years) residing in households with a telephone participated in a structured telephone interview. Poor self-rated health was endorsed by 11.4% of the sample. Final multivariable models showed that poor self-rated health was associated with older age (pdepressive episode (MDE; p=.01), and history of forcible rape (p=.01). Self-rated health was associated with three potentially modifiable variables (forcible rape, PTSD, and MDE). Therefore, trauma-focused interventions for rape victims should include collaboration on treatment or prevention modules that specifically address both mental and physical health. © 2011 American Orthopsychiatric Association.

Incorporating harvest rates into the sex-age-kill model for white-tailed deer

Science.gov (United States)

Norton, Andrew S.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Rosenberry, Christopher S.; Wallingford, Bret D.

2013-01-01

Although monitoring population trends is an essential component of game species management, wildlife managers rarely have complete counts of abundance. Often, they rely on population models to monitor population trends. As imperfect representations of real-world populations, models must be rigorously evaluated to be applied appropriately. Previous research has evaluated population models for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus); however, the precision and reliability of these models when tested against empirical measures of variability and bias largely is untested. We were able to statistically evaluate the Pennsylvania sex-age-kill (PASAK) population model using realistic error measured using data from 1,131 radiocollared white-tailed deer in Pennsylvania from 2002 to 2008. We used these data and harvest data (number killed, age-sex structure, etc.) to estimate precision of abundance estimates, identify the most efficient harvest data collection with respect to precision of parameter estimates, and evaluate PASAK model robustness to violation of assumptions. Median coefficient of variation (CV) estimates by Wildlife Management Unit, 13.2% in the most recent year, were slightly above benchmarks recommended for managing game species populations. Doubling reporting rates by hunters or doubling the number of deer checked by personnel in the field reduced median CVs to recommended levels. The PASAK model was robust to errors in estimates for adult male harvest rates but was sensitive to errors in subadult male harvest rates, especially in populations with lower harvest rates. In particular, an error in subadult (1.5-yr-old) male harvest rates resulted in the opposite error in subadult male, adult female, and juvenile population estimates. Also, evidence of a greater harvest probability for subadult female deer when compared with adult (≥2.5-yr-old) female deer resulted in a 9.5% underestimate of the population using the PASAK model. Because obtaining
Two Back Stress Hardening Models in Rate Independent Rigid Plastic Deformation

Science.gov (United States)

Yun, Su-Jin

In the present work, the constitutive relations based on the combination of two back stresses are developed using the Armstrong-Frederick, Phillips and Ziegler’s type hardening rules. Various evolutions of the kinematic hardening parameter can be obtained by means of a simple combination of back stress rate using the rule of mixtures. Thus, a wide range of plastic deformation behavior can be depicted depending on the dominant back stress evolution. The ultimate back stress is also determined for the present combined kinematic hardening models. Since a kinematic hardening rule is assumed in the finite deformation regime, the stress rate is co-rotated with respect to the spin of substructure obtained by incorporating the plastic spin concept. A comparison of the various co-rotational rates is also included. Assuming rigid plasticity, the continuum body consists of the elastic deformation zone and the plastic deformation zone to form a hybrid finite element formulation. Then, the plastic deformation behavior is investigated under various loading conditions with an assumption of the J2 deformation theory. The plastic deformation localization turns out to be strongly dependent on the description of back stress evolution and its associated hardening parameters. The analysis for the shear deformation with fixed boundaries is carried out to examine the deformation localization behavior and the evolution of state variables.
A Finite-Rate-Catalytic Model For Hypersonic Flows Informed By Molecular Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartzentruber, T. E.; Valentini, P.; Norman, P.; Sorensen, C.

2011-05-01

The implementation of a finite-rate catalytic (FRC) wall boundary condition within a general 3D unstructured CFD solver is described. A set of one-step gas-surface chemical equations and atomistic parameters that deter- mine the reaction rates must be prescribed as input to the model. The chemical rate equations are solved at each wall face in the CFD simulation and result in a net production of species at the wall. In order for a finite- rate gas-surface reaction model to be consistent at equilibrium, it is determined that not all forward and back- ward rates can be specified arbitrarily. Provided that the forward rates for each surface recombination are as- signed, the backward rates must be determined using equilibrium constants that are consistent with the gas- phase chemistry model and thermodynamics. Reactive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are performed us- ing the ReaxFFSiO potential to investigate oxygen-silica interactions. β-quartz and amorphous SiO2 surfaces are accommodated to a high temperature gas via MD simulation and reach a steady-state surface coverage. In addition to stable surface reconstructions a number of active sites are observed on which recombination occurs. Single collision MD simulations are performed where gas-phase oxygen atoms interact with the most dominant active site. Probabilities of recombination are found to have an exponential trend with gas-surface system temperature. The MD simulations are used to determine the activation energy for Eley-Rideal recombination of oxygen on a specific silica active site which is an important input parameter for the FRC model.
Modeling patterns in data using linear and related models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Engelhardt, M.E.

1996-06-01

This report considers the use of linear models for analyzing data related to reliability and safety issues of the type usually associated with nuclear power plants. The report discusses some of the general results of linear regression analysis, such as the model assumptions and properties of the estimators of the parameters. The results are motivated with examples of operational data. Results about the important case of a linear regression model with one covariate are covered in detail. This case includes analysis of time trends. The analysis is applied with two different sets of time trend data. Diagnostic procedures and tests for the adequacy of the model are discussed. Some related methods such as weighted regression and nonlinear models are also considered. A discussion of the general linear model is also included. Appendix A gives some basic SAS programs and outputs for some of the analyses discussed in the body of the report. Appendix B is a review of some of the matrix theoretic results which are useful in the development of linear models
The Modeling of Logistics and Coordination of the Rate of Commodities Production with the Rate of their Disposal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sherstennykov Yuriy V.

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The economic objective of the modern high-tech enterprise is the optimal expansion of its own market niche and bringing the production capacities in accordance with the current demand for the products. An important role in this respect is played by issues of optimal organization of the enterprise logistics, marketing analysis of the current demand and effective advertising campaign aimed at maximal use of the available production capacity and creation of proper conditions for developing, in particular for increasing the production capacities. The purpose of the article is the elaboration of economic and mathematical models of enterprise production activity taking into account the logistics and market demand; the use of the elaborated model to harmonize the rate of production of everyday commodities with the rate of their disposal. Two variants of the enterprise logistics schemes are analyzed. The influence of the advertising company on expanding the enterprise market niche is studied. A model that allows conducting a detailed study of the influence of market conditions on the pace of sales has been developed. It is appropriate to apply the model for the integrated coordination of the production rate of commodities of everyday demand with the dynamics of flows of commodities and services disposal.
Mathematical modeling of high-rate Anammox UASB reactor based on granular packing patterns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, Chong-Jian; He, Rui; Zheng, Ping; Chai, Li-Yuan; Min, Xiao-Bo

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► A novel model was conducted to estimate volumetric nitrogen conversion rates. ► The packing patterns of the granules in Anammox reactor are investigated. ► The simple cubic packing pattern was simulated in high-rate Anammox UASB reactor. ► Operational strategies concerning sludge concentration were proposed by the modeling. -- Abstract: A novel mathematical model was developed to estimate the volumetric nitrogen conversion rates of a high-rate Anammox UASB reactor based on the packing patterns of granular sludge. A series of relationships among granular packing density, sludge concentration, hydraulic retention time and volumetric conversion rate were constructed to correlate Anammox reactor performance with granular packing patterns. It was suggested that the Anammox granules packed as the equivalent simple cubic pattern in high-rate UASB reactor with packing density of 50–55%, which not only accommodated a high concentration of sludge inside the reactor, but also provided large pore volume, thus prolonging the actual substrate conversion time. Results also indicated that it was necessary to improve Anammox reactor performance by enhancing substrate loading when sludge concentration was higher than 37.8 gVSS/L. The established model was carefully calibrated and verified, and it well simulated the performance of granule-based high-rate Anammox UASB reactor
Mathematical modeling of high-rate Anammox UASB reactor based on granular packing patterns

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tang, Chong-Jian, E-mail: chjtangzju@yahoo.com.cn [Department of Environmental Engineering, School of Metallurgical Science and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083 (China); National Engineering Research Center for Control and Treatment of Heavy Metal Pollution, Changsha 410083 (China); He, Rui; Zheng, Ping [Department of Environmental Engineering, Zhejiang University, Zijingang Campus, Hangzhou 310058 (China); Chai, Li-Yuan; Min, Xiao-Bo [Department of Environmental Engineering, School of Metallurgical Science and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083 (China); National Engineering Research Center for Control and Treatment of Heavy Metal Pollution, Changsha 410083 (China)

2013-04-15

Highlights: ► A novel model was conducted to estimate volumetric nitrogen conversion rates. ► The packing patterns of the granules in Anammox reactor are investigated. ► The simple cubic packing pattern was simulated in high-rate Anammox UASB reactor. ► Operational strategies concerning sludge concentration were proposed by the modeling. -- Abstract: A novel mathematical model was developed to estimate the volumetric nitrogen conversion rates of a high-rate Anammox UASB reactor based on the packing patterns of granular sludge. A series of relationships among granular packing density, sludge concentration, hydraulic retention time and volumetric conversion rate were constructed to correlate Anammox reactor performance with granular packing patterns. It was suggested that the Anammox granules packed as the equivalent simple cubic pattern in high-rate UASB reactor with packing density of 50–55%, which not only accommodated a high concentration of sludge inside the reactor, but also provided large pore volume, thus prolonging the actual substrate conversion time. Results also indicated that it was necessary to improve Anammox reactor performance by enhancing substrate loading when sludge concentration was higher than 37.8 gVSS/L. The established model was carefully calibrated and verified, and it well simulated the performance of granule-based high-rate Anammox UASB reactor.
A model to predict evaporation rates in habitats used by container-dwelling mosquitoes.

Science.gov (United States)

Bartlett-Healy, Kristen; Healy, Sean P; Hamilton, George C

2011-05-01

Container-dwelling mosquitoes use a wide variety of container habitats. The bottle cap is often cited as the smallest container habitat used by container species. When containers are small, the habitat conditions can greatly affect evaporation rates that in turn can affect the species dynamics within the container. An evaporation rate model was adapted to predict evaporation rates in mosquito container habitats. In both the laboratory and field, our model was able to predict actual evaporation rates. Examples of how the model may be applied are provided by examining the likelihood of Aedes albopictus (Skuse), Aedes aegypti (L.), and Culex pipiens pipiens (L.) completing their development within small-volume containers under typical environmental conditions and a range of temperatures. Our model suggests that under minimal direct sunlight exposure, both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus could develop within a bottle cap before complete evaporation. Our model shows that under the environmental conditions when a plastic field container was sampled, neither Ae. albopictus or Cx. p. pipiens could complete development in that particular container before the water evaporated. Although rainfall could replenish the habitat, the effects of evaporation would increase larval density, which could in turn further decrease developmental rates.
Relative tropospheric photolysis rates of acetaldehyde and formaldehyde measured at the European Photoreactor Facility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nilsson, Elna Johanna Kristina; Bache-Andreassen, Lihn; Johnson, Matthew Stanley

2009-01-01

The photolysis rates of HCHO, DCDO, CH3CHO, and CH3CDO are studied by long-path FTIR spectroscopy in natural tropospheric conditions at the European Photoreactor Facility (EUPHORE) in Valencia, Spain. Average relative photolysis rates jHCHO/jDCDO ) 3.15 ( 0.08 and jCH3CHO/jCH3CDO ) 1.26 ( 0.03 ar.......03 are obtained from three days of experiments for each reaction in the period June 17 to July 7, 2006.......The photolysis rates of HCHO, DCDO, CH3CHO, and CH3CDO are studied by long-path FTIR spectroscopy in natural tropospheric conditions at the European Photoreactor Facility (EUPHORE) in Valencia, Spain. Average relative photolysis rates jHCHO/jDCDO ) 3.15 ( 0.08 and jCH3CHO/jCH3CDO ) 1.26 ( 0...
A relation between calculated human body exergy consumption rate and subjectively assessed thermal sensation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Simone, Angela; Kolarik, Jakub; Iwamatsu, Toshiya

2011-01-01

occupants, it is reasonable to consider both the exergy flows in building and those within the human body. Until now, no data have been available on the relation between human-body exergy consumption rates and subjectively assessed thermal sensation. The objective of the present work was to relate thermal...... sensation data, from earlier thermal comfort studies, to calculated human-body exergy consumption rates. The results show that the minimum human body exergy consumption rate is associated with thermal sensation votes close to thermal neutrality, tending to the slightly cool side of thermal sensation....... Generally, the relationship between air temperature and the exergy consumption rate, as a first approximation, shows an increasing trend. Taking account of both convective and radiative heat exchange between the human body and the surrounding environment by using the calculated operative temperature, exergy...
Identification of strain-rate and thermal sensitive material model with an inverse method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peroni M.

2010-06-01

Full Text Available This paper describes a numerical inverse method to extract material strength parameters from the experimental data obtained via mechanical tests at different strainrates and temperatures. It will be shown that this procedure is particularly useful to analyse experimental results when the stress-strain fields in the specimen cannot be correctly described via analytical models. This commonly happens in specimens with no regular shape, in specimens with a regular shape when some instability phenomena occur (for example the necking phenomena in tensile tests that create a strongly heterogeneous stress-strain fields or in dynamic tests (where the strain-rate field is not constant due to wave propagation phenomena. Furthermore the developed procedure is useful to take into account thermal phenomena generally affecting high strain-rate tests due to the adiabatic overheating related to the conversion of plastic work. The method presented requires strong effort both from experimental and numerical point of view, anyway it allows to precisely identify the parameters of different material models. This could provide great advantages when high reliability of the material behaviour is necessary. Applicability of this method is particularly indicated for special applications in the field of aerospace engineering, ballistic, crashworthiness studies or particle accelerator technologies, where materials could be submitted to strong plastic deformations at high-strain rate in a wide range of temperature. Thermal softening effect has been investigated in a temperature range between 20°C and 1000°C.
Modeling the effects of temperature and relative humidity on gas exchange of prickly pear cactus (Opuntia spp.) stems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Guevara-Arauza, J.C.; Yahia, E.M.; Cedeno, L.; Tijskens, L.M.M.

2006-01-01

A model to estimate gas profile of modified atmosphere packaged (MAP) prickly pear cactus stems was developed and calibrated. The model describes the transient gas exchange taking in consideration the effect of temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) on film permeability (FPgas), respiration rate
Interest Rates and Inflation

OpenAIRE

Coopersmith, Michael

2011-01-01

A relation between interest rates and inflation is presented using a two component economic model and a simple general principle. Preliminary results indicate a remarkable similarity to classical economic theories, in particular that of Wicksell.
Application of the TDABC model in the logistics process using different capacity cost rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paulo Afonso

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The understanding of logistics process in terms of costs and profitability is a complex task and there is a need of more research and applied work on these issues. In this research project, the concepts underlying Time-Driven Activity Based Costing (TDABC have been used in the context of logistics costs. Design/methodology/approach: A Distribution Centre of wood and carpentry related materials has been studied. A multidisciplinary team has been composed to support the project including the researchers and three employees of the company responsible for accounting, logistics and warehousing. The design and implementation of the costing model asked for a deep understanding of the different tasks and processes that should be considered. Accordingly, a TDABC model for the logistics function was developed. Findings: The cost model presented here is supported on a series of time equations designed for the logistics function which allow the analysis and discussion of costs and profitability of different cost objects namely, products, clients, distribution channels, processes and activities. The cost of unused capacity and the effectiveness of logistics processes are also highlighted in this model. Research limitations/implications: In a case study, results and implications cannot be directly or immediately generalized. Nevertheless, the proposed time equations and cost model can be easily adapted to explain other types of logistics functions and it gives the foundations or other TDABC models with more than one capacity cost rate. Practical implications: The TDABC model developed in this case study can be used in similar cases and as a basis for the analysis of logistics costs in other logistics processes. Furthermore, managers can rely on the proposed approach to analyze products’ profitability and logistics cost structure. Originality/value: In this case, different capacity cost rates were computed in order to reflect appropriately the
Application of the TDABC model in the logistics process using different capacity cost rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Afonso, Paulo; Santana, Alex

2016-01-01

Purpose: The understanding of logistics process in terms of costs and profitability is a complex task and there is a need of more research and applied work on these issues. In this research project, the concepts underlying Time-Driven Activity Based Costing (TDABC) have been used in the context of logistics costs. Design/methodology/approach: A Distribution Centre of wood and carpentry related materials has been studied. A multidisciplinary team has been composed to support the project including the researchers and three employees of the company responsible for accounting, logistics and warehousing. The design and implementation of the costing model asked for a deep understanding of the different tasks and processes that should be considered. Accordingly, a TDABC model for the logistics function was developed. Findings: The cost model presented here is supported on a series of time equations designed for the logistics function which allow the analysis and discussion of costs and profitability of different cost objects namely, products, clients, distribution channels, processes and activities. The cost of unused capacity and the effectiveness of logistics processes are also highlighted in this model. Research limitations/implications: In a case study, results and implications cannot be directly or immediately generalized. Nevertheless, the proposed time equations and cost model can be easily adapted to explain other types of logistics functions and it gives the foundations or other TDABC models with more than one capacity cost rate. Practical implications: The TDABC model developed in this case study can be used in similar cases and as a basis for the analysis of logistics costs in other logistics processes. Furthermore, managers can rely on the proposed approach to analyze products’ profitability and logistics cost structure. Originality/value: In this case, different capacity cost rates were computed in order to reflect appropriately the logistics function which
Application of the TDABC model in the logistics process using different capacity cost rates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Afonso, Paulo; Santana, Alex

2016-07-01

Purpose: The understanding of logistics process in terms of costs and profitability is a complex task and there is a need of more research and applied work on these issues. In this research project, the concepts underlying Time-Driven Activity Based Costing (TDABC) have been used in the context of logistics costs. Design/methodology/approach: A Distribution Centre of wood and carpentry related materials has been studied. A multidisciplinary team has been composed to support the project including the researchers and three employees of the company responsible for accounting, logistics and warehousing. The design and implementation of the costing model asked for a deep understanding of the different tasks and processes that should be considered. Accordingly, a TDABC model for the logistics function was developed. Findings: The cost model presented here is supported on a series of time equations designed for the logistics function which allow the analysis and discussion of costs and profitability of different cost objects namely, products, clients, distribution channels, processes and activities. The cost of unused capacity and the effectiveness of logistics processes are also highlighted in this model. Research limitations/implications: In a case study, results and implications cannot be directly or immediately generalized. Nevertheless, the proposed time equations and cost model can be easily adapted to explain other types of logistics functions and it gives the foundations or other TDABC models with more than one capacity cost rate. Practical implications: The TDABC model developed in this case study can be used in similar cases and as a basis for the analysis of logistics costs in other logistics processes. Furthermore, managers can rely on the proposed approach to analyze products’ profitability and logistics cost structure. Originality/value: In this case, different capacity cost rates were computed in order to reflect appropriately the logistics function which
The Multi-state Latent Factor Intensity Model for Credit Rating Transitions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koopman, S.J.; Lucas, A.; Monteiro, A.

2008-01-01

A new empirical reduced-form model for credit rating transitions is introduced. It is a parametric intensity-based duration model with multiple states and driven by exogenous covariates and latent dynamic factors. The model has a generalized semi-Markov structure designed to accommodate many of the
Modeling the downward transport of 210Pb in Peatlands: Initial Penetration‐Constant Rate of Supply (IP-CRS) model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olid, Carolina; Diego, David; Garcia-Orellana, Jordi; Cortizas, Antonio Martínez; Klaminder, Jonatan

2016-01-01

The vertical distribution of 210 Pb is commonly used to date peat deposits accumulated over the last 100–150 years. However, several studies have questioned this method because of an apparent post-depositional mobility of 210 Pb within some peat profiles. In this study, we introduce the Initial Penetration–Constant Rate of Supply (IP-CRS) model for calculating ages derived from 210 Pb profiles that are altered by an initial migration of the radionuclide. This new, two-phased, model describes the distribution of atmospheric-derived 210 Pb ( 210 Pb xs ) in peat taking into account both incorporation of 210 Pb into the accumulating peat matrix as well as an initial flushing of 210 Pb through the uppermost peat layers. The validity of the IP-CRS model is tested in four anomalous 210 Pb peat records that showed some deviations from the typical exponential decay profile not explained by variations in peat accumulation rates. Unlike the most commonly used 210 Pb-dating model (Constant Rate of Supply (CRS)), the IP-CRS model estimates peat accumulation rates consistent with typical growth rates for peatlands from the same areas. Confidence in the IP-CRS chronology is also provided by the good agreement with independent chronological markers (i.e. 241 Am and 137 Cs). Our results showed that the IP-CRS can provide chronologies from peat records where 210 Pb mobility is evident, being a valuable tool for studies reconstructing past environmental changes using peat archives during the Anthropocene. - Highlights: • Accurate age dating of peat and sediment cores is critical for evaluating change. • A new 210 Pb dating model that includes vertical transport of 210 Pb was developed. • The IP-CRS model provided consistent peat accumulation rates. • The IP-CRS ages were consistent with independent chronological markers. • The IP-CRS model derives peat ages where downward 210 Pb transport is evidenced.
Citation Rate of Highly-Cited Papers in 100 Kinesiology-Related Journals

Science.gov (United States)

Knudson, Duane

2015-01-01

This study extended previous research on several citation-based bibliometric variables for highly cited articles in a large (N = 100) number of journals related to Kinesiology. Total citations and citation rate of the 30 most highly cited articles in each journal were identified by searchers of "Google Scholar (GS)". Other major…
Do expert ratings or economic models explain champagne prices?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bentzen, Jan Børsen; Smith, Valdemar

2008-01-01

Champagne is bought with low frequency and many consumers most likely do not have or seek full information on the quality of champagne. Some consumers may rely on the reputation of particular brands, e.g. "Les Grandes Marques", some consumers choose to gain information from sensory ratings...... of champagne. The aim of this paper is to analyse the champagne prices on the Scandinavian markets by applying a hedonic price function in a comparative framework with minimal models using sensory ratings....

Personality, relationship conflict, and teamwork-related mental models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Delia Vîrgă

Full Text Available This study seeks to explore whether neuroticism, agreeableness, and conscientiousness moderate the influence of relationship conflict experienced in groups on changes in group members' evaluative cognitions related to teamwork quality (teamwork-related mental models. Data from 216 students, nested in 48 groups were analyzed using a multilevel modeling approach. Our results show that the experience of relationship conflict leads to a negative shift from the pre-task to the post-task teamwork-related mental models. Moreover, the results indicate that conscientiousness buffered the negative association between relationship conflict and the change in teamwork-related mental models. Our results did not support the hypothesized moderating effect of agreeableness and show that the detrimental effect of relationship conflict on the shift in teamwork-related mental models is accentuated for group members scoring low rather than high on neuroticism. These findings open new research venues for exploring the association between personality, coping styles and change in teamwork-related mental models.
Personality, Relationship Conflict, and Teamwork-Related Mental Models

Science.gov (United States)

Vîrgă, Delia; CurŞeu, Petru Lucian; Maricuţoiu, Laurenţiu; Sava, Florin A.; Macsinga, Irina; Măgurean, Silvia

2014-01-01

This study seeks to explore whether neuroticism, agreeableness, and conscientiousness moderate the influence of relationship conflict experienced in groups on changes in group members' evaluative cognitions related to teamwork quality (teamwork-related mental models). Data from 216 students, nested in 48 groups were analyzed using a multilevel modeling approach. Our results show that the experience of relationship conflict leads to a negative shift from the pre-task to the post-task teamwork-related mental models. Moreover, the results indicate that conscientiousness buffered the negative association between relationship conflict and the change in teamwork-related mental models. Our results did not support the hypothesized moderating effect of agreeableness and show that the detrimental effect of relationship conflict on the shift in teamwork-related mental models is accentuated for group members scoring low rather than high on neuroticism. These findings open new research venues for exploring the association between personality, coping styles and change in teamwork-related mental models. PMID:25372143
Personality, relationship conflict, and teamwork-related mental models.

Science.gov (United States)

Vîrgă, Delia; Curşeu, Petru Lucian; CurŞeu, Petru Lucian; Maricuţoiu, Laurenţiu; Sava, Florin A; Macsinga, Irina; Măgurean, Silvia

2014-01-01

This study seeks to explore whether neuroticism, agreeableness, and conscientiousness moderate the influence of relationship conflict experienced in groups on changes in group members' evaluative cognitions related to teamwork quality (teamwork-related mental models). Data from 216 students, nested in 48 groups were analyzed using a multilevel modeling approach. Our results show that the experience of relationship conflict leads to a negative shift from the pre-task to the post-task teamwork-related mental models. Moreover, the results indicate that conscientiousness buffered the negative association between relationship conflict and the change in teamwork-related mental models. Our results did not support the hypothesized moderating effect of agreeableness and show that the detrimental effect of relationship conflict on the shift in teamwork-related mental models is accentuated for group members scoring low rather than high on neuroticism. These findings open new research venues for exploring the association between personality, coping styles and change in teamwork-related mental models.
Error associated with model predictions of wildland fire rate of spread

Science.gov (United States)

Miguel G. Cruz; Martin E. Alexander

2015-01-01

How well can we expect to predict the spread rate of wildfires and prescribed fires? The degree of accuracy in model predictions of wildland fire behaviour characteristics are dependent on the model's applicability to a given situation, the validity of the model's relationships, and the reliability of the model input data (Alexander and Cruz 2013b#. We...
Crash-related mortality and model year: are newer vehicles safer?

Science.gov (United States)

Ryb, Gabriel E; Dischinger, Patricia C; McGwin, Gerald; Griffin, Russell L

2011-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine whether occupants of newer vehicles experience a lower risk of crash-related mortality. The occurrence of death was studied in relation to vehicle model year (MY) among front seat vehicular occupants, age ≥ 16 captured in the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) between 2000 and 2008. The associations between death and other occupant, vehicular and crash characteristics were also explored. Multiple logistic regression models for the prediction of death were built with model year as the independent variable and other characteristics linked to death as covariates. Imputation was used for missing data; weighted data was used. A total of 70,314 cases representing 30,514,372 weighted cases were available for analysis. Death occurred in 0.6% of the weighted population. Death was linked to age>60, male gender, higher BMI, near lateral direction of impact, high delta v, rollover, ejection and vehicle mismatch, and negatively associated with seatbelt use and rear and far lateral direction of impact. Mortality decreased with later model year groups (MY<94 0.78%, MY 94-97 0.53%, MY 98-04 0.51% and MY 05-08 0.38%, p=<0.0001). After adjustment for confounders, MY 94-97, MY 98-04 and MY 05-08 showed decreased odds of death [OR 0.80 (0.69-0.94), 0.82 (0.70-0.97), and 0.67 (0.47-0.96), respectively] when compared to MY <94. Newer vehicles are associated with lower crash-related mortality. Their introduction into the vehicle fleet may explain, at least in part, the decrease in mortality rates in the past two decades.
Relative influence of age, resting heart rate and sedentary life style in short-term analysis of heart rate variability

OpenAIRE

E.R. Migliaro; P. Contreras; S. Bech; A. Etxagibel; M. Castro; R. Ricca; K. Vicente

2001-01-01

In order to assess the relative influence of age, resting heart rate (HR) and sedentary life style, heart rate variability (HRV) was studied in two different groups. The young group (YG) consisted of 9 sedentary subjects aged 15 to 20 years (YG-S) and of 9 nonsedentary volunteers (YG-NS) also aged 15 to 20. The elderly sedentary group (ESG) consisted of 16 sedentary subjects aged 39 to 82 years. HRV was assessed using a short-term procedure (5 min). R-R variability was calculated in the time-...
Effect of selection for relative growth rate and bodyweight of mice on rate, composition and efficiency of growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, H.

1974-01-01

To evaluate the effect of selection for parameters of a growth curve, four selection lines and a control line were started from one base population. In the selection lines is selected for a large and a small relative growth rate between 21 and 29 days (RGH and RGL) and for a large and
Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

OpenAIRE

Manuel Moreno

1997-01-01

This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk management based on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interest rates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that default free discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between the long-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several new measures of ``generalized duration" are p...
Promotion time cure rate model with nonparametric form of covariate effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Tianlei; Du, Pang

2018-05-10

Survival data with a cured portion are commonly seen in clinical trials. Motivated from a biological interpretation of cancer metastasis, promotion time cure model is a popular alternative to the mixture cure rate model for analyzing such data. The existing promotion cure models all assume a restrictive parametric form of covariate effects, which can be incorrectly specified especially at the exploratory stage. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric approach to modeling the covariate effects under the framework of promotion time cure model. The covariate effect function is estimated by smoothing splines via the optimization of a penalized profile likelihood. Point-wise interval estimates are also derived from the Bayesian interpretation of the penalized profile likelihood. Asymptotic convergence rates are established for the proposed estimates. Simulations show excellent performance of the proposed nonparametric method, which is then applied to a melanoma study. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Modeling the effect of temperature on survival rate of Salmonella Enteritidis in yogurt.

Science.gov (United States)

Szczawiński, J; Szczawińska, M E; Łobacz, A; Jackowska-Tracz, A

2014-01-01

The aim of the study was to determine the inactivation rates of Salmonella Enteritidis in commercially produced yogurt and to generate primary and secondary mathematical models to predict the behaviour of these bacteria during storage at different temperatures. The samples were inoculated with the mixture of three S. Enteritidis strains and stored at 5 degrees C, 10 degrees C, 15 degrees C, 20 degrees C and 25 degrees C for 24 h. The number of salmonellae was determined every two hours. It was found that the number of bacteria decreased linearly with storage time in all samples. Storage temperature and pH of yogurt significantly influenced survival rate of S. Enteritidis (p bacteria was the most dynamic. The natural logarithm of mean inactivation rates of Salmonella calculated from primary model was fitted to two secondary models: linear and polynomial. Equations obtained from both secondary models can be applied as a tool for prediction of inactivation rate of Salmonella in yogurt stored under temperature range from 5 to 25 degrees C; however, polynomial model gave the better fit to the experimental data.
Genome-wide investigation reveals high evolutionary rates in annual model plants.

Science.gov (United States)

Yue, Jia-Xing; Li, Jinpeng; Wang, Dan; Araki, Hitoshi; Tian, Dacheng; Yang, Sihai

2010-11-09

Rates of molecular evolution vary widely among species. While significant deviations from molecular clock have been found in many taxa, effects of life histories on molecular evolution are not fully understood. In plants, annual/perennial life history traits have long been suspected to influence the evolutionary rates at the molecular level. To date, however, the number of genes investigated on this subject is limited and the conclusions are mixed. To evaluate the possible heterogeneity in evolutionary rates between annual and perennial plants at the genomic level, we investigated 85 nuclear housekeeping genes, 10 non-housekeeping families, and 34 chloroplast genes using the genomic data from model plants including Arabidopsis thaliana and Medicago truncatula for annuals and grape (Vitis vinifera) and popular (Populus trichocarpa) for perennials. According to the cross-comparisons among the four species, 74-82% of the nuclear genes and 71-97% of the chloroplast genes suggested higher rates of molecular evolution in the two annuals than those in the two perennials. The significant heterogeneity in evolutionary rate between annuals and perennials was consistently found both in nonsynonymous sites and synonymous sites. While a linear correlation of evolutionary rates in orthologous genes between species was observed in nonsynonymous sites, the correlation was weak or invisible in synonymous sites. This tendency was clearer in nuclear genes than in chloroplast genes, in which the overall evolutionary rate was small. The slope of the regression line was consistently lower than unity, further confirming the higher evolutionary rate in annuals at the genomic level. The higher evolutionary rate in annuals than in perennials appears to be a universal phenomenon both in nuclear and chloroplast genomes in the four dicot model plants we investigated. Therefore, such heterogeneity in evolutionary rate should result from factors that have genome-wide influence, most likely those
The allele-frequency spectrum in a decoupled Moran model with mutation, drift, and directional selection, assuming small mutation rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogl, Claus; Clemente, Florian

2012-05-01

We analyze a decoupled Moran model with haploid population size N, a biallelic locus under mutation and drift with scaled forward and backward mutation rates θ(1)=μ(1)N and θ(0)=μ(0)N, and directional selection with scaled strength γ=sN. With small scaled mutation rates θ(0) and θ(1), which is appropriate for single nucleotide polymorphism data in highly recombining regions, we derive a simple approximate equilibrium distribution for polymorphic alleles with a constant of proportionality. We also put forth an even simpler model, where all mutations originate from monomorphic states. Using this model we derive the sojourn times, conditional on the ancestral and fixed allele, and under equilibrium the distributions of fixed and polymorphic alleles and fixation rates. Furthermore, we also derive the distribution of small samples in the diffusion limit and provide convenient recurrence relations for calculating this distribution. This enables us to give formulas analogous to the Ewens-Watterson estimator of θ for biased mutation rates and selection. We apply this theory to a polymorphism dataset of fourfold degenerate sites in Drosophila melanogaster. Copyright Â© 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Loss and thermal model for power semiconductors including device rating information

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ma, Ke; Bahman, Amir Sajjad; Beczkowski, Szymon

2014-01-01

The electrical loading and device rating are both important factors that determine the loss and thermal behaviors of power semiconductor devices. In the existing loss and thermal models, only the electrical loadings are focused and treated as design variables, while the device rating is normally...
Do Insect Populations Die at Constant Rates as They Become Older? Contrasting Demographic Failure Kinetics with Respect to Temperature According to the Weibull Model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petros Damos

Full Text Available Temperature implies contrasting biological causes of demographic aging in poikilotherms. In this work, we used the reliability theory to describe the consistency of mortality with age in moth populations and to show that differentiation in hazard rates is related to extrinsic environmental causes such as temperature. Moreover, experiments that manipulate extrinsic mortality were used to distinguish temperature-related death rates and the pertinence of the Weibull aging model. The Newton-Raphson optimization method was applied to calculate parameters for small samples of ages at death by estimating the maximum likelihoods surfaces using scored gradient vectors and the Hessian matrix. The study reveals for the first time that the Weibull function is able to describe contrasting biological causes of demographic aging for moth populations maintained at different temperature regimes. We demonstrate that at favourable conditions the insect death rate accelerates as age advances, in contrast to the extreme temperatures in which each individual drifts toward death in a linear fashion and has a constant chance of passing away. Moreover, slope of hazard rates shifts towards a constant initial rate which is a pattern demonstrated by systems which are not wearing out (e.g. non-aging since the failure, or death, is a random event independent of time. This finding may appear surprising, because, traditionally, it was mostly thought as rule that in aging population force of mortality increases exponentially until all individuals have died. Moreover, in relation to other studies, we have not observed any typical decelerating aging patterns at late life (mortality leveling-off, but rather, accelerated hazard rates at optimum temperatures and a stabilized increase at the extremes.In most cases, the increase in aging-related mortality was simulated reasonably well according to the Weibull survivorship model that is applied. Moreover, semi log- probability hazard
A note on inventory model for ameliorating items with time dependent second order demand rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gobinda Chandra Panda

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Background: This paper is concerned with the development of ameliorating inventory models. The ameliorating inventory is the inventory of goods whose utility increases over the time by ameliorating activation. Material and Methods: This study is performed according to two areas: one is an economic order quantity (EOQ model for the items whose utility is ameliorating in accordance with Weibull distribution, and the other is a partial selling quantity (PSQ model developed for selling the surplus inventory accumulated by ameliorating activation with linear demand. The aim of this paper was to develop a mathematical model for inventory type concerned in the paper. Numerical examples were presented show the effect of ameliorating rate on inventory polices. Results and Conclusions: The inventory model for items with Weibull ameliorating is developed. For the case of small ameliorating rate (less than linear demand rate, EOQ model is developed, and for the case where ameliorating rate is greater than linear demand rate, PSQ model is developed. .
Differences in rain rate intensities between TRMM observations and community atmosphere model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Yi; Bowman, Kenneth P.; Jackson, Charles

2007-01-01

Precipitation related latent heating is important in driving the atmospheric general circulation and in generating intraseasonal to decadal atmospheric variability. Our ability to project future climate change, especially trends in costly precipitation extremes, hinges upon whether coupled GCMs capture processes that affect precipitation characteristics. Our study compares the tropical-subtropical precipitation characteristics of simulations by the NCAR CAM3.1 atmospheric GCM and observations derived from the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Despite a fairly good simulation of the annual mean rain rate, CAM rains about 10-50% more often than the real world and fails to capture heavy rainfall associated with deep convective systems over subtropical South America and U.S. Southern Plains. When it rains, there is a likelihood of 0.96-1.0 that it rains lightly in the model, compared to values of 0.84-1.0 in TRMM data. On the other hand, the likelihood of the occurrence of moderate to heavy rainfall is an order of magnitude higher in observations (0.12-0.2) than that in the model (model compensates for the lack of heavy precipitation through raining more frequently within the light rain category, which leads to an annual rainfall amount close to what is observed. CAM captures the qualitative change of rain rate PDF from a "dry" oceanic to a "wet" oceanic region, but it fails to simulate the change of precipitation characteristics from an oceanic region to a land region where thunderstorm rainfall dominates.
A Study of Analytical Solution for the Special Dissolution Rate Model of Rock Salt

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Yang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available By calculating the concentration distributions of rock salt solutions at the boundary layer, an ordinary differential equation for describing a special dissolution rate model of rock salt under the assumption of an instantaneous diffusion process was established to investigate the dissolution mechanism of rock salt under transient but stable conditions. The ordinary differential equation was then solved mathematically to give an analytical solution and related expressions for the dissolved radius and solution concentration. Thereafter, the analytical solution was fitted with transient dissolution test data of rock salt to provide the dissolution parameters at different flow rates, and the physical meaning of the analytical formula was also discussed. Finally, the influential factors of the analytical formula were investigated. There was approximately a linear relationship between the dissolution parameters and the flow rate. The effects of the dissolution area and initial volume of the solution on the dissolution rate equation of rock salt were computationally investigated. The results showed that the present analytical solution gives a good description of the dissolution mechanism of rock salt under some special conditions, which may provide a primary theoretical basis and an analytical way to investigate the dissolution characteristics of rock salt.
Ratiometric analysis in hyperpolarized NMR (I): test of the two-site exchange model and the quantification of reaction rate constants.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Lin Z; Kadlececk, Stephen; Xu, He N; Daye, Dania; Pullinger, Benjamin; Profka, Harrilla; Chodosh, Lewis; Rizi, Rahim

2013-10-01

Conventional methods for the analysis of in vivo hyperpolarized (13) C NMR data from the lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) reaction usually make assumptions on the stability of rate constants and/or the validity of the two-site exchange model. In this study, we developed a framework to test the validity of the assumption of stable reaction rate constants and the two-site exchange model in vivo via ratiometric fitting of the time courses of the signal ratio L(t)/P(t). Our analysis provided evidence that the LDH enzymatic kinetics observed by hyperpolarized NMR are in near-equilibrium and satisfy the two-site exchange model for only a specific time window. In addition, we quantified both the forward and reverse exchange rate constants of the LDH reaction for the transgenic and mouse xenograft models of breast cancer using the ratio fitting method developed, which includes only two modeling parameters and is less sensitive to the influence of instrument settings/protocols, such as flip angles, degree of polarization and tracer dosage. We further compared the ratio fitting method with a conventional two-site exchange modeling method, i.e. the differential equation fitting method, using both the experimental and simulated hyperpolarized NMR data. The ratio fitting method appeared to fit better than the differential equation fitting method for the reverse rate constant on the mouse tumor data, with less relative errors on average, whereas the differential equation fitting method also resulted in a negative reverse rate constant for one tumor. The simulation results indicated that the accuracy of both methods depends on the width of the transport function, noise level and rate constant ratio; one method may be more accurate than the other based on the experimental/biological conditions aforementioned. We were able to categorize our tumor models into specific conditions of the computer simulation and to estimate the errors of rate quantification. We also discussed possible
Patient characteristics in relation to dental care payment model: capitation vs fee for service.

Science.gov (United States)

Hakeberg, M; Wide Boman, U

2016-12-01

To analyse patient profiles in two payment models, the capitation (DCH) and the fee-for-service (FFS) systems, in relation to socioeconomic status, self-reported health and health behavior, as well as patient attitudes to and satisfaction with the DCH model in the Public Dental Service (PDS) in Sweden. The present survey included a random national sample of the adult population in Sweden. A telemarketing company, TNS SIFO, was responsible for the sample selection and telephone interviews conducted in May 2013. The 3,500 adults (aged =19 years) included in the sample gave a participation rate of 49.7%. Individuals choosing DCH were younger. FFS patients rated their health as less good, were less physically active, were more often smokers and had a lower household income. The DCH patients were more satisfied with their payment model than the FFS patients (98% vs 85%). A multivariate analysis showed that three of the variables significantly contributed to the model predicting DCH patients: age, with an odds ratio of 0.95, household income (OR=1.85) and importance of oral health for well-being (OR=2.05). There was a pattern of dimensions indicating the choice of payment model among adult patients in the Swedish Public Dental Service. The patients in DCH had higher socioeconomic position, were younger, rated their oral health as better and were more satisfied with the payment model (DCH) than the patients in the FFS system. Copyright© 2016 Dennis Barber Ltd
The Effects Of Asymmetric Transmission Of Exchange Rate On Inflation In Iran: Application Of Threshold Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naghdi Yazdan

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Given the recent fluctuation in the exchange rate and the presence of several factors such as the various economy-political sanctions (mainly embargos on oil and banking, extreme volatility in different economic fields, and consequently the devaluation of national and public procurement -A landmark that is emanating from exchange rate fluctuation - two points should be noted: First, it is essential to review the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on macro economic variables such as inflation and to provide appropriate policies. Second, the existence of this condition provides the chance to study the relation between exchange rate and inflation in a non-linear and asymmetric method. Hence, the present study seeks to use TAR model and, on the basis of monthly time series data over the period March 2002 to March 2014, to analyze the cross-asymmetric and non-linear exchange rate on consumer price index (CPI in Iran. The results also show the presence of an asymmetric long-term relationship between these variables (exchange rate and CPI. Also, in the Iranian economy, the effect of negative shocks of exchange rate on inflation is more sustainable than the one from positive shocks.

Modeling the time--varying subjective quality of HTTP video streams with rate adaptations.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chao; Choi, Lark Kwon; de Veciana, Gustavo; Caramanis, Constantine; Heath, Robert W; Bovik, Alan C

2014-05-01

Newly developed hypertext transfer protocol (HTTP)-based video streaming technologies enable flexible rate-adaptation under varying channel conditions. Accurately predicting the users' quality of experience (QoE) for rate-adaptive HTTP video streams is thus critical to achieve efficiency. An important aspect of understanding and modeling QoE is predicting the up-to-the-moment subjective quality of a video as it is played, which is difficult due to hysteresis effects and nonlinearities in human behavioral responses. This paper presents a Hammerstein-Wiener model for predicting the time-varying subjective quality (TVSQ) of rate-adaptive videos. To collect data for model parameterization and validation, a database of longer duration videos with time-varying distortions was built and the TVSQs of the videos were measured in a large-scale subjective study. The proposed method is able to reliably predict the TVSQ of rate adaptive videos. Since the Hammerstein-Wiener model has a very simple structure, the proposed method is suitable for online TVSQ prediction in HTTP-based streaming.
Comparison between GSTAR and GSTAR-Kalman Filter models on inflation rate forecasting in East Java

Science.gov (United States)

Rahma Prillantika, Jessica; Apriliani, Erna; Wahyuningsih, Nuri

2018-03-01

Up to now, we often find data which have correlation between time and location. This data also known as spatial data. Inflation rate is one type of spatial data because it is not only related to the events of the previous time, but also has relevance to the other location or elsewhere. In this research, we do comparison between GSTAR model and GSTAR-Kalman Filter to get prediction which have small error rate. Kalman Filter is one estimator that estimates state changes due to noise from white noise. The final result shows that Kalman Filter is able to improve the GSTAR forecast result. This is shown through simulation results in the form of graphs and clarified with smaller RMSE values.
Availability analysis of subsea blowout preventer using Markov model considering demand rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sunghee Kim

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Availabilities of subsea Blowout Preventers (BOP in the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf (GoM OCS is investigated using a Markov method. An updated β factor model by SINTEF is used for common-cause failures in multiple redundant systems. Coefficient values of failure rates for the Markov model are derived using the β factor model of the PDS (reliability of computer-based safety systems, Norwegian acronym method. The blind shear ram preventer system of the subsea BOP components considers a demand rate to reflect reality more. Markov models considering the demand rate for one or two components are introduced. Two data sets are compared at the GoM OCS. The results show that three or four pipe ram preventers give similar availabilities, but redundant blind shear ram preventers or annular preventers enhance the availability of the subsea BOP. Also control systems (PODs and connectors are contributable components to improve the availability of the subsea BOPs based on sensitivity analysis.
China; Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations

OpenAIRE

Tao Wang

2004-01-01

This paper reviews the evolution of China's real effective exchange rate between 1980 and 2002, and uses a structural vector autoregression model to study the relative importance of different types of macroeconomic shocks for fluctuations in the real exchange rate. The structural decomposition shows that relative real demand and supply shocks account for most of the variations in real exchange rate changes during the estimation period. The paper also finds that supply shocks are as important ...
Financial modeling in medicine: cash flow, basic metrics, the time value of money, discount rates, and internal rate of return.

Science.gov (United States)

Lexa, Frank James; Berlin, Jonathan W

2005-03-01

In this article, the authors cover tools for financial modeling. Commonly used time lines and cash flow diagrams are discussed. Commonly used but limited terms such as payback and breakeven are introduced. The important topics of the time value of money and discount rates are introduced to lay the foundation for their use in modeling and in more advanced metrics such as the internal rate of return. Finally, the authors broach the more sophisticated topic of net present value.
Spallation model for the high strain rates range

Science.gov (United States)

Dekel, E.; Eliezer, S.; Henis, Z.; Moshe, E.; Ludmirsky, A.; Goldberg, I. B.

1998-11-01

Measurements of the dynamic spall strength in aluminum and copper shocked by a high power laser to pressures of hundreds of kbars show a rapid increase in the spall strength with the strain rate at values of about 107 s-1. We suggest that this behavior is a result of a change in the spall mechanism. At low strain rates the spall is caused by the motion and coalescence of material's initial flaws. At high strain rates there is not enough time for the flaws to move and the spall is produced by the formation and coalescence of additional cavities where the interatomic forces become dominant. Material under tensile stress is in a metastable condition and cavities of a critical radius are formed in it due to thermal fluctuations. These cavities grow due to the tension. The total volume of the voids grow until the material disintegrates at the spall plane. Simplified calculations based on this model, describing the metal as a viscous liquid, give results in fairly good agreement with the experimental data and predict the increase in spall strength at high strain rates.
Stochastic model of microcredit interest rate in Morocco

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Ghita Bennouna

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Access to microcredit can have a beneficial effect on the well-being of low-income households excluded from the traditional banking system. It allows this population to receive affordable financial services to help them to meet their needs and to improve their living conditions. However to provide access to credit, microfinance institutions should ensure not only their social mission but also commercial and financial mission to enable the institution to perpetuate and become self-sufficient. To this end, MFIs (microfinance institutions must apply an interest rate that covers their costs and risk, while generating profits, Also microentrepreneurs need, to this end, to ensure the profitability of their activities. This paper presents the microfinance sector in Morocco. It focuses then on the interest rate applied by the Moroccan microfinance institutions; it provides also a comparative study between Morocco and other comparable countries in terms of interest rates charged to borrowers. Finally, this article presents a stochastic model of the interest rate in microcredit built in random loan repayment periods and on a real example of the program of loans of microfinance institution in Morocco
Adjusting a cancer mortality-prediction model for disease status-related eligibility criteria

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Kimmel Marek

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Volunteering participants in disease studies tend to be healthier than the general population partially due to specific enrollment criteria. Using modeling to accurately predict outcomes of cohort studies enrolling volunteers requires adjusting for the bias introduced in this way. Here we propose a new method to account for the effect of a specific form of healthy volunteer bias resulting from imposing disease status-related eligibility criteria, on disease-specific mortality, by explicitly modeling the length of the time interval between the moment when the subject becomes ineligible for the study, and the outcome. Methods Using survival time data from 1190 newly diagnosed lung cancer patients at MD Anderson Cancer Center, we model the time from clinical lung cancer diagnosis to death using an exponential distribution to approximate the length of this interval for a study where lung cancer death serves as the outcome. Incorporating this interval into our previously developed lung cancer risk model, we adjust for the effect of disease status-related eligibility criteria in predicting the number of lung cancer deaths in the control arm of CARET. The effect of the adjustment using the MD Anderson-derived approximation is compared to that based on SEER data. Results Using the adjustment developed in conjunction with our existing lung cancer model, we are able to accurately predict the number of lung cancer deaths observed in the control arm of CARET. Conclusions The resulting adjustment was accurate in predicting the lower rates of disease observed in the early years while still maintaining reasonable prediction ability in the later years of the trial. This method could be used to adjust for, or predict the duration and relative effect of any possible biases related to disease-specific eligibility criteria in modeling studies of volunteer-based cohorts.
STOCHASTIC CHARACTERISTICS AND MODELING OF RELATIVE ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Test

Results are highly accurate and promising for all models based on Lewis' criteria. ... hydrological cycle. Future increases in ... STOCHASTIC CHARACTERISTICS AND MODELING OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF OGUN BASIN, NIGERIA. 71 ...
Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Box-Cox Transformation Cure Rate Model and Assessment of Model Misspecification Under Weibull Lifetimes.

Science.gov (United States)

Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

2018-05-01

In this paper, we develop likelihood inference based on the expectation maximization algorithm for the Box-Cox transformation cure rate model assuming the lifetimes to follow a Weibull distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we also study the effect of model misspecification on the estimate of cure rate. Finally, we analyze a well-known data on melanoma with the model and the inferential method developed here.
The impact of varicella vaccination on varicella-related hospitalization rates: global data review.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirose, Maki; Gilio, Alfredo Elias; Ferronato, Angela Esposito; Ragazzi, Selma Lopes Betta

2016-09-01

to describe the impact of varicella vaccination on varicella-related hospitalization rates in countries that implemented universal vaccination against the disease. we identified countries that implemented universal vaccination against varicella at the http://apps.who.int/immunization_monitoring/globalsummary/schedules site of the World Health Organization and selected articles in Pubmed describing the changes (pre/post-vaccination) in the varicella-related hospitalization rates in these countries, using the Keywords "varicella", "vaccination/vaccine" and "children" (or) "hospitalization". Publications in English published between January 1995 and May 2015 were included. 24 countries with universal vaccination against varicella and 28 articles describing the impact of the vaccine on varicella-associated hospitalizations rates in seven countries were identified. The US had 81.4% -99.2% reduction in hospitalization rates in children younger than four years after 6-14 years after the onset of universal vaccination (1995), with vaccination coverage of 90%; Uruguay: 94% decrease (children aged 1-4 years) in six years, vaccination coverage of 90%; Canada: 93% decrease (age 1-4 years) in 10 years, coverage of 93%; Germany: 62.4% decrease (age 1-4 years) in 8 years, coverage of 78.2%; Australia: 76.8% decrease (age 1-4 years) in 5 years, coverage of 90%; Spain: 83.5% decrease (age <5 years) in four years, coverage of 77.2% and Italy 69.7% -73.8% decrease (general population), coverage of 60%-95%. The publications showed variations in the percentage of decrease in varicella-related hospitalization rates after universal vaccination in the assessed countries; the results probably depend on the time since the implementation of universal vaccination, differences in the studied age group, hospital admission criteria, vaccination coverage and strategy, which does not allow direct comparison between data. Copyright © 2016 Sociedade de Pediatria de São Paulo. Publicado por
The impact of varicella vaccination on varicella-related hospitalization rates: global data review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maki Hirose

Full Text Available Abstract Objective: To describe the impact of varicella vaccination on varicella-related hospitalization rates in countries that implemented universal vaccination against the disease. Data source: We identified countries that implemented universal vaccination against varicella at the http://apps.who.int/immunization_monitoring/globalsummary/schedules site of the World Health Organization and selected articles in Pubmed describing the changes (pre/post-vaccination in the varicella-related hospitalization rates in these countries, using the Keywords "varicella", "vaccination/vaccine" and "children" (or "hospitalization". Publications in English published between January 1995 and May 2015 were included. Data synthesis: 24 countries with universal vaccination against varicella and 28 articles describing the impact of the vaccine on varicella-associated hospitalizations rates in seven countries were identified. The US had 81.4%–99.2% reduction in hospitalization rates in children younger than four years, 6–14 years after the onset of universal vaccination (1995, with vaccination coverage of 90%; Uruguay: 94% decrease (children aged 1–4 years in six years, vaccination coverage of 90%; Canada: 93% decrease (age 1–4 years in 10 years, coverage of 93%; Germany: 62.4% decrease (age 1–4 years in 8 years, coverage of 78.2%; Australia: 76.8% decrease (age 1–4 years in 5 years, coverage of 90%; Spain: 83.5% decrease (age <5 years in four years, coverage of 77.2% and Italy 69.7%–73.8% decrease (general population, coverage of 60%–95%. Conclusions: The publications showed variations in the percentage of decrease in varicella-related hospitalization rates after universal vaccination in the assessed countries; the results probably depend on the time since the implementation of universal vaccination, differences in the studied age group, hospital admission criteria, vaccination coverage and strategy, which does not allow direct comparison between
Dynamic Behavior for an SIRS Model with Nonlinear Incidence Rate and Treatment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Junhong Li

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper considers an SIRS model with nonlinear incidence rate and treatment. It is assumed that susceptible and infectious individuals have constant immigration rates. We investigate the existence of equilibrium and prove the global asymptotical stable results of the endemic equilibrium. We then obtained that the model undergoes a Hopf bifurcation and existences a limit cycle. Some numerical simulations are given to illustrate the analytical results.
THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENCY RELATIONS IN THE LIGHT OF MAJOR EXCHANGE RATE ADJUSTMENT THEORIES

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Sergiy TKACH

2014-07-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of major exchange rate adjustment theories on the global monetary system. The reasons of the previous organization forms of monetary relations collapse at the global level are defined. The main achievements and failures of major exchange rate theories are described.
A simplified model for predicting malaria entomologic inoculation rates based on entomologic and parasitologic parameters relevant to control.

Science.gov (United States)

Killeen, G F; McKenzie, F E; Foy, B D; Schieffelin, C; Billingsley, P F; Beier, J C

2000-05-01

Malaria transmission intensity is modeled from the starting perspective of individual vector mosquitoes and is expressed directly as the entomologic inoculation rate (EIR). The potential of individual mosquitoes to transmit malaria during their lifetime is presented graphically as a function of their feeding cycle length and survival, human biting preferences, and the parasite sporogonic incubation period. The EIR is then calculated as the product of 1) the potential of individual vectors to transmit malaria during their lifetime, 2) vector emergence rate relative to human population size, and 3) the infectiousness of the human population to vectors. Thus, impacts on more than one of these parameters will amplify each other's effects. The EIRs transmitted by the dominant vector species at four malaria-endemic sites from Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, and Nigeria were predicted using field measurements of these characteristics together with human biting rate and human reservoir infectiousness. This model predicted EIRs (+/- SD) that are 1.13 +/- 0.37 (range = 0.84-1.59) times those measured in the field. For these four sites, mosquito emergence rate and lifetime transmission potential were more important determinants of the EIR than human reservoir infectiousness. This model and the input parameters from the four sites allow the potential impacts of various control measures on malaria transmission intensity to be tested under a range of endemic conditions. The model has potential applications for the development and implementation of transmission control measures and for public health education.
Testing linear growth rate formulas of non-scale endogenous growth models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ziesemer, Thomas

2017-01-01

Endogenous growth theory has produced formulas for steady-state growth rates of income per capita which are linear in the growth rate of the population. Depending on the details of the models, slopes and intercepts are positive, zero or negative. Empirical tests have taken over the assumption of
Modelling Counterparty Credit Risk in Czech Interest Rate Swaps

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Lenka Křivánková

2017-01-01

Full Text Available According to the Basel Committee’s estimate, three quarters of counterparty credit risk losses during the financial crisis in 2008 originate from credit valuation adjustment’s losses and not from actual defaults. Therefore, from 2015, the Third Basel Accord (EU, 2013a and (EU, 2013b instructed banks to calculate the capital requirement for the risk of credit valuation adjustment (CVA. Banks are trying to model CVA to hold the prescribed standards and also reach the lowest possible impact on their profit. In this paper, we try to model CVA using methods that are in compliance with the prescribed standards and also achieve the smallest possible impact on the bank’s earnings. To do so, a data set of interest rate swaps from 2015 is used. The interest rate term structure is simulated using the Hull-White one-factor model and Monte Carlo methods. Then, the probability of default for each counterparty is constructed. A safe level of CVA is reached in spite of the calculated the CVA achieving a lower level than CVA previously used by the bank. This allows a reduction of capital requirements for banks.
Mesoscopic modeling of DNA denaturation rates: Sequence dependence and experimental comparison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dahlen, Oda, E-mail: oda.dahlen@ntnu.no; Erp, Titus S. van, E-mail: titus.van.erp@ntnu.no [Department of Chemistry, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Høgskoleringen 5, Realfagbygget D3-117 7491 Trondheim (Norway)

2015-06-21

Using rare event simulation techniques, we calculated DNA denaturation rate constants for a range of sequences and temperatures for the Peyrard-Bishop-Dauxois (PBD) model with two different parameter sets. We studied a larger variety of sequences compared to previous studies that only consider DNA homopolymers and DNA sequences containing an equal amount of weak AT- and strong GC-base pairs. Our results show that, contrary to previous findings, an even distribution of the strong GC-base pairs does not always result in the fastest possible denaturation. In addition, we applied an adaptation of the PBD model to study hairpin denaturation for which experimental data are available. This is the first quantitative study in which dynamical results from the mesoscopic PBD model have been compared with experiments. Our results show that present parameterized models, although giving good results regarding thermodynamic properties, overestimate denaturation rates by orders of magnitude. We believe that our dynamical approach is, therefore, an important tool for verifying DNA models and for developing next generation models that have higher predictive power than present ones.
A Model-Based Bayesian Estimation of the Rate of Evolution of VNTR Loci in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Science.gov (United States)

Aandahl, R. Zachariah; Reyes, Josephine F.; Sisson, Scott A.; Tanaka, Mark M.

2012-01-01

Variable numbers of tandem repeats (VNTR) typing is widely used for studying the bacterial cause of tuberculosis. Knowledge of the rate of mutation of VNTR loci facilitates the study of the evolution and epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Previous studies have applied population genetic models to estimate the mutation rate, leading to estimates varying widely from around to per locus per year. Resolving this issue using more detailed models and statistical methods would lead to improved inference in the molecular epidemiology of tuberculosis. Here, we use a model-based approach that incorporates two alternative forms of a stepwise mutation process for VNTR evolution within an epidemiological model of disease transmission. Using this model in a Bayesian framework we estimate the mutation rate of VNTR in M. tuberculosis from four published data sets of VNTR profiles from Albania, Iran, Morocco and Venezuela. In the first variant, the mutation rate increases linearly with respect to repeat numbers (linear model); in the second, the mutation rate is constant across repeat numbers (constant model). We find that under the constant model, the mean mutation rate per locus is (95% CI: ,)and under the linear model, the mean mutation rate per locus per repeat unit is (95% CI: ,). These new estimates represent a high rate of mutation at VNTR loci compared to previous estimates. To compare the two models we use posterior predictive checks to ascertain which of the two models is better able to reproduce the observed data. From this procedure we find that the linear model performs better than the constant model. The general framework we use allows the possibility of extending the analysis to more complex models in the future. PMID:22761563
Assessing rates of forest change and fragmentation in Alabama, USA, using the vegetation change tracker model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Mingshi; Huang, Chengquan; Zhu, Zhiliang; Shi, Hua; Lu, Heng; Peng, Shikui

2009-01-01

Forest change is of great concern for land use decision makers and conservation communities. Quantitative and spatial forest change information is critical for addressing many pressing issues, including global climate change, carbon budgets, and sustainability. In this study, our analysis focuses on the differences in geospatial patterns and their changes between federal forests and nonfederal forests in Alabama over the time period 1987–2005, by interpreting 163 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes using a vegetation change tracker (VCT) model. Our analysis revealed that for the most part of 1990 s and between 2000 and 2005, Alabama lost about 2% of its forest on an annual basis due to disturbances, but much of the losses were balanced by forest regeneration from previous disturbances. The disturbance maps revealed that federal forests were reasonably well protected, with the fragmentation remaining relatively stable over time. In contrast, nonfederal forests, which are predominant in area share (about 95%), were heavily disturbed, clearly demonstrating decreasing levels of fragmentation during the time period 1987–1993 giving way to a subsequent accelerating fragmentation during the time period 1994–2005. Additionally, the identification of the statistical relationships between forest fragmentation status and forest loss rate and forest net change rate in relation to land ownership implied the distinct differences in forest cutting rate and cutting patterns between federal forests and nonfederal forests. The forest spatial change information derived from the model has provided valuable insights regarding regional forest management practices and disturbance regimes, which are closely associated with regional economics and environmental concerns.

Modeling for Dose Rate Calculation of the External Exposure to Gamma Emitters in Soil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allam, K. A.; El-Mongy, S. A.; El-Tahawy, M. S.; Mohsen, M. A.

2004-01-01

Based on the model proposed and developed in Ph.D thesis of the first author of this work, the dose rate conversion factors (absorbed dose rate in air per specific activity of soil in nGy.hr - 1 per Bq.kg - 1) are calculated 1 m above the ground for photon emitters of natural radionuclides uniformly distributed in the soil. This new and simple dose rate calculation software was used for calculation of the dose rate in air 1 m above the ground. Then the results were compared with those obtained by five different groups. Although the developed model is extremely simple, the obtained results of calculations, based on this model, show excellent agreement with those obtained by the above-mentioned models specially that one adopted by UNSCEAR. (authors)
A Model for Estimation of Rain Rate on Tropical Land from TRMM Microwave Imager Radiometer Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2004-01-01

Over the tropical land regions observations of the 85 GHz brightness temperature (T(sub 85v)) made by the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer when analyzed with the help of rain rate (R(sub pR)) deduced from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) indicate that there are two maxima in rain rate. One strong maximum occurs when T(sub 85) has a value of about 220 K and the other weaker one when T(sub 85v) is much colder approx. 150 K. Together with the help of earlier studies based on airborne Doppler Radar observations and radiative transfer theoretical simulations, we infer the maximum near 220 K is a result of relatively weak scattering due to super cooled rain drops and water coated ice hydrometeors associated with a developing thunderstorm (Cb) that has a strong updraft. The other maximum is associated with strong scattering due to ice particles that are formed when the updraft collapses and the rain from the Cb is transit2oning from convective type to stratiform type. Incorporating these ideas and with a view to improve the estimation of rain rate from existing operational method applicable to the tropical land areas, we have developed a rain retrieval model. This model utilizes two parameters, that have a horizontal scale of approx. 20km, deduced from the TMI measurements at 19, 21 and 37 GHz (T(sub 19v), T(sub 21v), T(sub 37v). The third parameter in the model, namely the horizontal gradient of brightness temperature within the 20 km scale, is deduced from TMI measurements at 85 GHz. Utilizing these parameters our retrieval model is formulated to yield instantaneous rain rate on a scale of 20 km and seasonal average on a mesoscale that agree well with that of the PR.
Provider-Initiated Patient Satisfaction Reporting Yields Improved Physician Ratings Relative to Online Rating Websites.

Science.gov (United States)

Ricciardi, Benjamin F; Waddell, Brad S; Nodzo, Scott R; Lange, Jeffrey; Nocon, Allina A; Amundsen, Spencer; Tarity, T David; McLawhorn, Alexander S

2017-09-01

Recently, providers have begun to publicly report the results of patient satisfaction surveys from their practices. However, these outcomes have never been compared with the findings of commercial online physician rating websites. The goals of the current study were to (1) compare overall patient satisfaction ratings for orthopedic surgeons derived from provider-based third-party surveys with existing commercial physician rating websites and (2) determine the association between patient ratings and provider characteristics. The authors identified 12 institutions that provided publicly available patient satisfaction outcomes derived from third-party surveys for their orthopedic surgeons as of August 2016. Orthopedic surgeons at these institutions were eligible for inclusion (N=340 surgeons). Provider characteristics were recorded from publicly available data. Four high-traffic commercial online physician rating websites were identified: Healthgrades.com, UCompareHealthCare.com, Vitals.com, and RateMDs.com. For each surgeon, overall ratings (on a scale of 1-5), total number of ratings, and percentage of negative ratings were compared between provider-initiated internal ratings and each commercial online website. Associations between baseline factors and overall physician ratings and negative ratings were assessed. Provider-initiated internal patient satisfaction ratings showed a greater number of overall patient ratings, higher overall patient satisfaction ratings, and a lower percentage of negative comments compared with commercial online physician rating websites. A greater number of years in practice had a weak association with lower internal ratings, and an academic practice setting and a location in the Northeast were protective factors for negative physician ratings. Compared with commercial online physician rating websites, provider-initiated patient satisfaction ratings of orthopedic surgeons appear to be more favorable, with greater numbers of responses
Streamflow ratings

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes, Robert R.; Singh, Vijay P.

2016-01-01

Autonomous direct determination of a continuous time series of streamflow is not economically feasible at present (2014). As such, surrogates are used to derive a continuous time series of streamflow. The derivation process entails developing a streamflow rating, which can range from a simple, single-valued relation between stage and streamflow to a fully dynamic one-dimensional model based on hydraulics of the flow.
Effects of Context and Relative Rank on Mate Choice and Affiliation Ratings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Lynne Honey

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Female dominance has not often been studied as a factor in mate choice and other social interactions. When it has been examined, there have been a number of conflicting findings. The present study was designed to clarify interpretations of a study conducted by Brown and Lewis (2004 that found that men prefer subordinate women in a workplace context. We presented participants with information about the relative rank of physically attractive targets, in two very different contexts (work-related and recreational. We found that the context in which rank cues are presented has an impact on affiliation ratings, but that cues of rank do not affect mate choice ratings. Future studies of effects of dominance must take into account the context in which they are presented, and recognize that rank may not be a sufficient indicator of dominance for the purpose of mate choice by both men and women.
An SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin Yu; Wang, Wendi; Xiao Shiwu

2007-01-01

The global dynamics of an SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. We establish a threshold for a disease to be extinct or endemic, analyze the existence and asymptotic stability of equilibria, and verify the existence of bistable states, i.e., a stable disease free equilibrium and a stable endemic equilibrium or a stable limit cycle. In particular, we find that the model admits stability switches as a parameter changes. We also investigate the backward bifurcation, the Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation and obtain the Hopf bifurcation criteria and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation curves, which are important for making strategies for controlling a disease
A Study of How the Watts-Strogatz Model Relates to an Economic System’s Utility

OpenAIRE

Lunhan Luo; Jianan Fang

2014-01-01

Watts-Strogatz model is a main mechanism to construct the small-world networks. It is widely used in the simulations of small-world featured systems including economic system. Formally, the model contains a parameters set including three variables representing group size, number of neighbors, and rewiring probability. This paper discusses how the parameters set relates to the economic system performance which is utility growth rate. In conclusion, it is found that, regardless of the group siz...
Tax revenue and inflation rate predictions in Banda Aceh using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

Science.gov (United States)

Maulia, Eva; Miftahuddin; Sofyan, Hizir

2018-05-01

A country has some important parameters to achieve the welfare of the economy, such as tax revenues and inflation. One of the largest revenues of the state budget in Indonesia comes from the tax sector. Besides, the rate of inflation occurring in a country can be used as one measure, to measure economic problems that the country facing. Given the importance of tax revenue and inflation rate control in achieving economic prosperity, it is necessary to analyze the relationship and forecasting tax revenue and inflation rate. VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) was chosen as the method used in this research, because of the data used in the form of multivariate time series data. This study aims to produce a VECM model with optimal lag and to predict the tax revenue and inflation rate of the VECM model. The results show that the best model for data of tax revenue and the inflation rate in Banda Aceh City is VECM with 3rd optimal lag or VECM (3). Of the seven models formed, there is a significant model that is the acceptance model of income tax. The predicted results of tax revenue and the inflation rate in Kota Banda Aceh for the next 6, 12 and 24 periods (months) obtained using VECM (3) are considered valid, since they have a minimum error value compared to other models.
A matrix model for valuing anesthesia service with the resource-based relative value system.

Science.gov (United States)

Sinclair, David R; Lubarsky, David A; Vigoda, Michael M; Birnbach, David J; Harris, Eric A; Behrens, Vicente; Bazan, Richard E; Williams, Steve M; Arheart, Kristopher; Candiotti, Keith A

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to propose a new crosswalk using the resource-based relative value system (RBRVS) that preserves the time unit component of the anesthesia service and disaggregates anesthesia billing into component parts (preoperative evaluation, intraoperative management, and postoperative evaluation). The study was designed as an observational chart and billing data review of current and proposed payments, in the setting of a preoperative holing area, intraoperative suite, and post anesthesia care unit. In total, 1,195 charts of American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) physical status 1 through 5 patients were reviewed. No direct patient interventions were undertaken. Spearman correlations between the proposed RBRVS billing matrix payments and the current ASA relative value guide methodology payments were strong (r=0.94-0.96, Pbilling matrix yielded payments that were 3.0%±1.34% less than would have been expected from commercial insurers, using standard rates for commercial ASA relative value units and RBRVS relative value units. Compared with current Medicare reimbursement under the ASA relative value guide, reimbursement would almost double when converting to an RBRVS billing model. The greatest increases in Medicare reimbursement between the current system and proposed billing model occurred as anesthetic management complexity increased. The new crosswalk correlates with existing evaluation and management and intensive care medicine codes in an essentially revenue neutral manner when applied to the market-based rates of commercial insurers. The new system more highly values delivery of care to more complex patients undergoing more complex surgery and better represents the true value of anesthetic case management.
Modeling the downward transport of {sup 210}Pb in Peatlands: Initial Penetration‐Constant Rate of Supply (IP-CRS) model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olid, Carolina, E-mail: olid.carolina@gmail.com [Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, SE-90187, Umeå (Sweden); Diego, David [Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, NO-5020 Bergen (Norway); Garcia-Orellana, Jordi [Departament de Física, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, E-08193 Bellaterra (Spain); Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, E-08193 Bellaterra (Spain); Cortizas, Antonio Martínez [Departamento de Edafoloxía e Química Agrícola, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, E-15782 Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Klaminder, Jonatan [Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, SE-90187, Umeå (Sweden)

2016-01-15

The vertical distribution of {sup 210}Pb is commonly used to date peat deposits accumulated over the last 100–150 years. However, several studies have questioned this method because of an apparent post-depositional mobility of {sup 210}Pb within some peat profiles. In this study, we introduce the Initial Penetration–Constant Rate of Supply (IP-CRS) model for calculating ages derived from {sup 210}Pb profiles that are altered by an initial migration of the radionuclide. This new, two-phased, model describes the distribution of atmospheric-derived {sup 210}Pb ({sup 210}Pb{sub xs}) in peat taking into account both incorporation of {sup 210}Pb into the accumulating peat matrix as well as an initial flushing of {sup 210}Pb through the uppermost peat layers. The validity of the IP-CRS model is tested in four anomalous {sup 210}Pb peat records that showed some deviations from the typical exponential decay profile not explained by variations in peat accumulation rates. Unlike the most commonly used {sup 210}Pb-dating model (Constant Rate of Supply (CRS)), the IP-CRS model estimates peat accumulation rates consistent with typical growth rates for peatlands from the same areas. Confidence in the IP-CRS chronology is also provided by the good agreement with independent chronological markers (i.e. {sup 241}Am and {sup 137}Cs). Our results showed that the IP-CRS can provide chronologies from peat records where {sup 210}Pb mobility is evident, being a valuable tool for studies reconstructing past environmental changes using peat archives during the Anthropocene. - Highlights: • Accurate age dating of peat and sediment cores is critical for evaluating change. • A new {sup 210}Pb dating model that includes vertical transport of {sup 210}Pb was developed. • The IP-CRS model provided consistent peat accumulation rates. • The IP-CRS ages were consistent with independent chronological markers. • The IP-CRS model derives peat ages where downward {sup 210}Pb transport is
Evaluation of drought impact on groundwater recharge rate using SWAT and Hydrus models on an agricultural island in western Japan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Jin

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Clarifying the variations of groundwater recharge response to a changing non-stationary hydrological process is important for efficiently managing groundwater resources, particularly in regions with limited precipitation that face the risk of water shortage. However, the rate of aquifer recharge is difficult to evaluate in terms of large annual-variations and frequency of flood events. In our research, we attempt to simulate related groundwater recharge processes under variable climate conditions using the SWAT Model, and validate the groundwater recharge using the Hydrus Model. The results show that annual average groundwater recharge comprised approximately 33% of total precipitation, however, larger variation was found for groundwater recharge and surface runoff compared to evapotranspiration, which fluctuated with annual precipitation variations. The annual variation of groundwater resources is shown to be related to precipitation. In spatial variations, the upstream is the main surface water discharge area; the middle and downstream areas are the main groundwater recharge areas. Validation by the Hydrus Model shows that the estimated and simulated groundwater levels are consistent in our research area. The groundwater level shows a quick response to the groundwater recharge rate. The rainfall intensity had a great impact on the changes of the groundwater level. Consequently, it was estimated that large spatial and temporal variation of the groundwater recharge rate would be affected by precipitation uncertainty in future.
Aggressive behavior: an alternative model of resting heart rate and sensation seeking.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Laura C; Scarpa, Angela

2014-01-01

Low resting heart rate is a well-replicated biological correlate of aggression, and sensation seeking is frequently cited as the underlying causal explanation. However, little empirical evidence supports this mediating relationship. Furthermore, the biosocial model of violence and social push theory suggest sensation seeking may moderate the relationship between heart rate and aggression. In a sample of 128 college students (82.0% White; 73.4% female), the current study tested a moderation model as an alternative relationship between resting heart rate and sensation seeking in regard to aggression. Overall, the findings partially supported an interaction effect, whereby the relationship between heart rate and aggression was moderated by sensation seeking. Specifically, the oft-noted relationship between low resting heart rate and increased aggression was found, but only for individuals with low levels of sensation seeking. If replication supports this finding, the results may better inform prevention and intervention work. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Risk considerations related to lung modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masse, R.; Cross, F.T.

1989-01-01

Improved lung models provide a more accurate assessment of dose from inhalation exposures and, therefore, more accurate dose-response relationships for risk evaluation and exposure limitation. Epidemiological data for externally irradiated persons indicate that the numbers of excess respiratory tract carcinomas differ in the upper airways, bronchi, and distal lung. Neither their histogenesis and anatomical location nor their progenitor cells are known with sufficient accuracy for accurate assessment of the microdosimetry. The nuclei of sensitive cells generally can be assumed to be distributed at random in the epithelium, beneath the mucus and tips of the beating cilia and cells. In stratified epithelia, basal cells may be considered the only cells at risk. Upper-airway tumors have been observed in both therapeutically irradiated patients and in Hiroshima-Nagasaki survivors. The current International Commission on Radiological Protection Lung-Model Task Group proposes that the upper airways and lung have a similar relative risk coefficient for cancer induction. The partition of the risk weighting factor, therefore, will be proportional to the spontaneous death rate from tumors, and 80% of the weighting factor for the respiratory tract should be attributed to the lung. For Weibel lung-model branching generations 0 to 16 and 17 to 23, the Task Group proposes an 80/20 partition of the risk, i.e., 64% and 16%, respectively, of the total risk. Regarding risk in animals, recent data in rats indicate a significantly lower effectiveness for lung-cancer induction at low doses from insoluble long-lived alpha-emitters than from Rn daughters. These findings are due, in part, to the fact that different regions of the lung are irradiated. Tumors in the lymph nodes are rare in people and animals exposed to radiation.44 references
Application of thermodynamics-based rate-dependent constitutive models of concrete in the seismic analysis of concrete dams

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leng Fei

2008-09-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses the seismic analysis of concrete dams with consideration of material nonlinearity. Based on a consistent rate-dependent model and two thermodynamics-based models, two thermodynamics-based rate-dependent constitutive models were developed with consideration of the influence of the strain rate. They can describe the dynamic behavior of concrete and be applied to nonlinear seismic analysis of concrete dams taking into account the rate sensitivity of concrete. With the two models, a nonlinear analysis of the seismic response of the Koyna Gravity Dam and the Dagangshan Arch Dam was conducted. The results were compared with those of a linear elastic model and two rate-independent thermodynamics-based constitutive models, and the influences of constitutive models and strain rate on the seismic response of concrete dams were discussed. It can be concluded from the analysis that, during seismic response, the tensile stress is the control stress in the design and seismic safety evaluation of concrete dams. In different models, the plastic strain and plastic strain rate of concrete dams show a similar distribution. When the influence of the strain rate is considered, the maximum plastic strain and plastic strain rate decrease.
A dual theory of price and value in a meso-scale economic model with stochastic profit rate

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Greenblatt, R. E.

2014-12-01

The problem of commodity price determination in a market-based, capitalist economy has a long and contentious history. Neoclassical microeconomic theories are based typically on marginal utility assumptions, while classical macroeconomic theories tend to be value-based. In the current work, I study a simplified meso-scale model of a commodity capitalist economy. The production/exchange model is represented by a network whose nodes are firms, workers, capitalists, and markets, and whose directed edges represent physical or monetary flows. A pair of multivariate linear equations with stochastic input parameters represent physical (supply/demand) and monetary (income/expense) balance. The input parameters yield a non-degenerate profit rate distribution across firms. Labor time and price are found to be eigenvector solutions to the respective balance equations. A simple relation is derived relating the expected value of commodity price to commodity labor content. Results of Monte Carlo simulations are consistent with the stochastic price/labor content relation.
A mesoscopic reaction rate model for shock initiation of multi-component PBX explosives.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Y R; Duan, Z P; Zhang, Z Y; Ou, Z C; Huang, F L

2016-11-05

The primary goal of this research is to develop a three-term mesoscopic reaction rate model that consists of a hot-spot ignition, a low-pressure slow burning and a high-pressure fast reaction terms for shock initiation of multi-component Plastic Bonded Explosives (PBX). Thereinto, based on the DZK hot-spot model for a single-component PBX explosive, the hot-spot ignition term as well as its reaction rate is obtained through a "mixing rule" of the explosive components; new expressions for both the low-pressure slow burning term and the high-pressure fast reaction term are also obtained by establishing the relationships between the reaction rate of the multi-component PBX explosive and that of its explosive components, based on the low-pressure slow burning term and the high-pressure fast reaction term of a mesoscopic reaction rate model. Furthermore, for verification, the new reaction rate model is incorporated into the DYNA2D code to simulate numerically the shock initiation process of the PBXC03 and the PBXC10 multi-component PBX explosives, and the numerical results of the pressure histories at different Lagrange locations in explosive are found to be in good agreements with previous experimental data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Analysis of changes in the relationship between exchange rates, interest rates, and capital flows before and after the economic crisis

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Seung-Ho Lee

1999-09-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the interrelationships among KRW/USD exchange rate, interest rate, and foreigner’s portfolio investment to Korea before and after the crisis. Our finding is that interest rate and the exchange rate move closely with positive relation after the crisis, which was not the case before the crisis. We also examine cross dependencies among three variables using a multivariate GARCH model and find that all of restricted models such as uni-directional spillovers are firmly rejected over both periods.
Testing hypotheses in an I(2) model with piecewise linear trends. An analysis of the persistent long swings in the Dmk/$ rate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Søren; Juselius, Katarina; Frydman, Roman

2010-01-01

This paper discusses the I(2) model with breaks in the deterministic component and illustrates with an analysis of German and US prices, exchange rates, and interest rates in 1975--1999. It provides new results on the likelihood ratio test of overidentifying restrictions on the cointegrating...... relations when they contain piecewise linear trends. One important aim of the paper is to demonstrate that a structured I(2) analysis is useful for a better understanding of the empirical regularities underlying the persistent swings in nominal exchange rates, typical in periods of floating exchange rates....
A flexible cure rate model with dependent censoring and a known cure threshold.

Science.gov (United States)

Bernhardt, Paul W

2016-11-10

We propose a flexible cure rate model that accommodates different censoring distributions for the cured and uncured groups and also allows for some individuals to be observed as cured when their survival time exceeds a known threshold. We model the survival times for the uncured group using an accelerated failure time model with errors distributed according to the seminonparametric distribution, potentially truncated at a known threshold. We suggest a straightforward extension of the usual expectation-maximization algorithm approach for obtaining estimates in cure rate models to accommodate the cure threshold and dependent censoring. We additionally suggest a likelihood ratio test for testing for the presence of dependent censoring in the proposed cure rate model. We show through numerical studies that our model has desirable properties and leads to approximately unbiased parameter estimates in a variety of scenarios. To demonstrate how our method performs in practice, we analyze data from a bone marrow transplantation study and a liver transplant study. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Radionuclide release rates from spent fuel for performance assessment modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Curtis, D.B.

1994-01-01

In a scenario of aqueous transport from a high-level radioactive waste repository, the concentration of radionuclides in water in contact with the waste constitutes the source term for transport models, and as such represents a fundamental component of all performance assessment models. Many laboratory experiments have been done to characterize release rates and understand processes influencing radionuclide release rates from irradiated nuclear fuel. Natural analogues of these waste forms have been studied to obtain information regarding the long-term stability of potential waste forms in complex natural systems. This information from diverse sources must be brought together to develop and defend methods used to define source terms for performance assessment models. In this manuscript examples of measures of radionuclide release rates from spent nuclear fuel or analogues of nuclear fuel are presented. Each example represents a very different approach to obtaining a numerical measure and each has its limitations. There is no way to obtain an unambiguous measure of this or any parameter used in performance assessment codes for evaluating the effects of processes operative over many millennia. The examples are intended to suggest by example that in the absence of the ability to evaluate accuracy and precision, consistency of a broadly based set of data can be used as circumstantial evidence to defend the choice of parameters used in performance assessments

Gaussian and Affine Approximation of Stochastic Diffusion Models for Interest and Mortality Rates

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Marcus C. Christiansen

2013-10-01

Full Text Available In the actuarial literature, it has become common practice to model future capital returns and mortality rates stochastically in order to capture market risk and forecasting risk. Although interest rates often should and mortality rates always have to be non-negative, many authors use stochastic diffusion models with an affine drift term and additive noise. As a result, the diffusion process is Gaussian and, thus, analytically tractable, but negative values occur with positive probability. The argument is that the class of Gaussian diffusions would be a good approximation of the real future development. We challenge that reasoning and study the asymptotics of diffusion processes with affine drift and a general noise term with corresponding diffusion processes with an affine drift term and an affine noise term or additive noise. Our study helps to quantify the error that is made by approximating diffusive interest and mortality rate models with Gaussian diffusions and affine diffusions. In particular, we discuss forward interest and forward mortality rates and the error that approximations cause on the valuation of life insurance claims.
Metallic stent implantation in patients with iliac artery occlusion: long-term patency rate and factors related to recurrence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, Seok Kyun; Kim, Jae Kyu; Yoon, Woong; Kim, Jeong; Park, Jin Gyoon; Kang, Heoung Keun; Choi, Soo JinNa [Chonnam National University Hospital School of Medicine, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

2003-09-01

To determine the long-term patency rate in 68 patients with iliac artery occlusion who underwent metallic stent implantation, and to analyze the factors related to recurrence. Sixty-eight patients with occlusive disease of the iliac artery underwent implantation of a self-expandable metallic stent. The clinical symptoms were intermittent claudication (n=48), resting pain (n=11), and gangrene (n=9). Stent patency was determined by follow-up angiography and color Doppler imaging, and the cumulative patency rate using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to analyse recurrence-related factors involving clinical symptoms (Fontaine stage), risk factors, and anatomical factors such as lesion location, length, and the development of collaterals. The duration of follow-up varied from 1 day to 73 months (mean, 23.8 months). Arterial occlusion recurred in 16 of 68 patients (23.5%), and the cumulative patency rate was as follows: 95.4% at one month, 93.2% at six months, 80.1% at one year, 73.2% at two years, 68.9% at three years, and 62% at five years. According to a statistical analysis of risk factors, the recurrence (p=0.04) than in those without it, but in patients who smoked, hypertension, DM, and previous cerebrovascular disease were not statistically significant. With regard to anatomical factors, the recurrent rate for lesions involving the external iliac artery was 6.5 times higher (p=0.02) than for those involving the common iliac artery. Variations in the fontaine stage were not statistically significant indicators of recurrence. The recurrence rate after implantation of an iliac artery stent is higher in patients with heart disease than in those without it, and higher for occlusive lesions involving the external iliac artery than for those of the common iliac artery.
Metallic stent implantation in patients with iliac artery occlusion: long-term patency rate and factors related to recurrence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, Seok Kyun; Kim, Jae Kyu; Yoon, Woong; Kim, Jeong; Park, Jin Gyoon; Kang, Heoung Keun; Choi, Soo JinNa

2003-01-01

To determine the long-term patency rate in 68 patients with iliac artery occlusion who underwent metallic stent implantation, and to analyze the factors related to recurrence. Sixty-eight patients with occlusive disease of the iliac artery underwent implantation of a self-expandable metallic stent. The clinical symptoms were intermittent claudication (n=48), resting pain (n=11), and gangrene (n=9). Stent patency was determined by follow-up angiography and color Doppler imaging, and the cumulative patency rate using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to analyse recurrence-related factors involving clinical symptoms (Fontaine stage), risk factors, and anatomical factors such as lesion location, length, and the development of collaterals. The duration of follow-up varied from 1 day to 73 months (mean, 23.8 months). Arterial occlusion recurred in 16 of 68 patients (23.5%), and the cumulative patency rate was as follows: 95.4% at one month, 93.2% at six months, 80.1% at one year, 73.2% at two years, 68.9% at three years, and 62% at five years. According to a statistical analysis of risk factors, the recurrence (p=0.04) than in those without it, but in patients who smoked, hypertension, DM, and previous cerebrovascular disease were not statistically significant. With regard to anatomical factors, the recurrent rate for lesions involving the external iliac artery was 6.5 times higher (p=0.02) than for those involving the common iliac artery. Variations in the fontaine stage were not statistically significant indicators of recurrence. The recurrence rate after implantation of an iliac artery stent is higher in patients with heart disease than in those without it, and higher for occlusive lesions involving the external iliac artery than for those of the common iliac artery
Capital accumulation, structural change and real exchange rate in a Keynesian-Structuralist growth model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oreiro José Luis

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to show at theoretical level that maintaining a competitive real exchange rate positively affects the economic growth of developing countries by means of a Keynesian-Structuralist model that combines elements of Kaleckian growth models with the balance of payments constrained growth models pioneered developed by Thirlwall. In this setting, the level of real exchange rate is capable, due to its effect over capital accumulation, to induce a structural change in the economy, making endogenous income elasticities of exports and imports. For reasonable parameter values it is shown that in steady-state growth there is two long-run equilibrium values for real exchange rate, one that corresponds to an under-valued currency and another that corresponds to an over-valued currency. If monetary authorities run exchange rate policy in order to target a competitive level for real exchange rate, than under-valued equilibrium is stable and the economy will show a high growth rate in the long-run.
Unprecedented rates of land-use transformation in modeled climate change mitigation pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, P. A.; Field, C. B.; Lobell, D. B.; Sanchez, D.; Mach, K. J.

2017-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) generate climate change mitigation scenarios consistent with global temperature targets. To limit warming to 2°, stylized cost-effective mitigation pathways rely on extensive deployments of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR) technologies, including multi-gigatonne yearly carbon removal from the atmosphere through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation/reforestation. These assumed CDR deployments keep ambitious temperature limits in reach, but associated rates of land-use transformation have not been evaluated. For IAM scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, we compare rates of modeled land-use conversion to recent observed commodity crop expansions. In scenarios with a likely chance of limiting warming to 2° in 2100, the rate of energy cropland expansion supporting BECCS exceeds past commodity crop rates by several fold. In some cases, mitigation scenarios include abrupt reversal of deforestation, paired with massive afforestation/reforestation. Specifically, energy cropland in crop. If energy cropland instead increases at rates equal to recent soybean and oil palm expansions, the scale of CO2 removal possible with BECCS is 2.6 to 10-times lower, respectively, than the deployments <2° IAM scenarios rely upon in 2100. IAM mitigation pathways may favor multi-gigatonne biomass-based CDR given undervalued sociopolitical and techno-economic deployment barriers. Heroic modeled rates for land-use transformation imply that large-scale biomass-based CDR is not an easy solution to the climate challenge.
Rate Constants of PSII Photoinhibition and its Repair, and PSII Fluorescence Parameters in Field Plants in Relation to their Growth Light Environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Miyata, Kazunori; Ikeda, Hiroshi; Nakaji, Masayoshi; Kanel, Dhana Raj; Terashima, Ichiro

2015-09-01

The extent of photoinhibition of PSII is determined by a balance between the rate of photodamage to PSII and that of repair of the damaged PSII. It has already been indicated that the rate constants of photodamage (kpi) and repair (krec) of the leaves differ depending on their growth light environment. However, there are no studies using plants in the field. We examined these rate constants and fluorescence parameters of several field-grown plants to determine inter-relationships between these values and the growth environment. The kpi values were strongly related to the excess energy, EY, of the puddle model and non-regulated energy dissipation, Y(NO), of the lake model, both multiplied by the photosynthetically active photon flux density (PPFD) level during the photoinhibitory treatment. In contrast, the krec values corrected against in situ air temperature were very strongly related to the daily PPFD level. The plants from the fields showed higher NPQ than the chamber-grown plants, probably because these field plants acclimated to stronger lightflecks than the averaged growth PPFD. Comparing chamber-grown plants and the field plants, we showed that kpi is determined by the incident light level and the photosynthetic capacities such as in situ rate of PSII electron transport and non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) [e.g. Y(NO)×PPFD] and that krec is mostly determined by the growth light and temperature levels. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Japanese Society of Plant Physiologists. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Phase space representation of neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field in relation to solar activity in cycles 21 and 22.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, H G; Lopes, I

Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays links solar cycle activity with neutron monitor count rate on earth. A less direct relation holds between neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field because different atmospheric processes, including fluctuations in the ionosphere, are involved. Although a full quantitative model is still lacking, this link is supported by solid statistical evidence. Thus, a connection between the solar cycle activity and atmospheric electric field is expected. To gain a deeper insight into these relations, sunspot area (NOAA, USA), neutron monitor count rate (Climax, Colorado, USA), and atmospheric electric field (Lisbon, Portugal) are presented here in a phase space representation. The period considered covers two solar cycles (21, 22) and extends from 1978 to 1990. Two solar maxima were observed in this dataset, one in 1979 and another in 1989, as well as one solar minimum in 1986. Two main observations of the present study were: (1) similar short-term topological features of the phase space representations of the three variables, (2) a long-term phase space radius synchronization between the solar cycle activity, neutron monitor count rate, and potential gradient (confirmed by absolute correlation values above ~0.8). Finally, the methodology proposed here can be used for obtaining the relations between other atmospheric parameters (e.g., solar radiation) and solar cycle activity.
Autonomic responses to heat pain: Heart rate, skin conductance, and their relation to verbal ratings and stimulus intensity.

Science.gov (United States)

Loggia, Marco L; Juneau, Mylène; Bushnell, M Catherine

2011-03-01

In human pain experiments, as well as in clinical settings, subjects are often asked to assess pain using scales (eg, numeric rating scales). Although most subjects have little difficulty in using these tools, some lack the necessary basic cognitive or motor skills (eg, paralyzed patients). Thus, the identification of appropriate nonverbal measures of pain has significant clinical relevance. In this study, we assessed heart rate (HR), skin conductance (SC), and verbal ratings in 39 healthy male subjects during the application of twelve 6-s heat stimuli of different intensities on the subjects' left forearm. Both HR and SC increased with more intense painful stimulation. However, HR but not SC, significantly correlated with pain ratings at the group level, suggesting that HR may be a better predictor of between-subject differences in pain than is SC. Conversely, changes in SC better predicted variations in ratings within a given individual, suggesting that it is more sensitive to relative changes in perception. The differences in findings derived from between- and within-subject analyses may result from greater within-subject variability in HR. We conclude that at least for male subjects, HR provides a better predictor of pain perception than SC, but that data should be averaged over several stimulus presentations to achieve consistent results. Nevertheless, variability among studies, and the indication that gender of both the subject and experimenter could influence autonomic results, lead us to advise caution in using autonomic or any other surrogate measures to infer pain in individuals who cannot adequately report their perception. Skin conductance is more sensitive to detect within-subject perceptual changes, but heart rate appears to better predict pain ratings at the group level. Copyright © 2010 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Measuring the Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Stock Market Returns Volatility: GARCH Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdelkadir BESSEBA

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the dynamic links between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market return volatility. For this purpose, we have employed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH model. Stock market returns sensitivities are found to be stronger for exchange rates, implying that exchange rate change plays an important role in determining the dynamics of the stock market returns.
Precision comparison of the erosion rates derived from 137Cs measurements models with predictions based on empirical relationship

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Mingyi; Liu Puling; Li Liqing

2004-01-01

The soil samples were collected in 6 cultivated runoff plots with grid sampling method, and the soil erosion rates derived from 137 Cs measurements were calculated. The models precision of Zhang Xinbao, Zhou Weizhi, Yang Hao and Walling were compared with predictions based on empirical relationship, data showed that the precision of 4 models is high within 50m slope length except for the slope with low slope angle and short length. Relatively, the precision of Walling's model is better than that of Zhang Xinbao, Zhou Weizhi and Yang Hao. In addition, the relationship between parameter Γ in Walling's improved model and slope angle was analyzed, the ralation is: Y=0.0109 X 1.0072 . (authors)
Discriminative Relational Topic Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ning; Zhu, Jun; Xia, Fei; Zhang, Bo

2015-05-01

Relational topic models (RTMs) provide a probabilistic generative process to describe both the link structure and document contents for document networks, and they have shown promise on predicting network structures and discovering latent topic representations. However, existing RTMs have limitations in both the restricted model expressiveness and incapability of dealing with imbalanced network data. To expand the scope and improve the inference accuracy of RTMs, this paper presents three extensions: 1) unlike the common link likelihood with a diagonal weight matrix that allows the-same-topic interactions only, we generalize it to use a full weight matrix that captures all pairwise topic interactions and is applicable to asymmetric networks; 2) instead of doing standard Bayesian inference, we perform regularized Bayesian inference (RegBayes) with a regularization parameter to deal with the imbalanced link structure issue in real networks and improve the discriminative ability of learned latent representations; and 3) instead of doing variational approximation with strict mean-field assumptions, we present collapsed Gibbs sampling algorithms for the generalized relational topic models by exploring data augmentation without making restricting assumptions. Under the generic RegBayes framework, we carefully investigate two popular discriminative loss functions, namely, the logistic log-loss and the max-margin hinge loss. Experimental results on several real network datasets demonstrate the significance of these extensions on improving prediction performance.
A Minimalistic Resource Allocation Model to Explain Ubiquitous Increase in Protein Expression with Growth Rate.

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Uri Barenholz

Full Text Available Most proteins show changes in level across growth conditions. Many of these changes seem to be coordinated with the specific growth rate rather than the growth environment or the protein function. Although cellular growth rates, gene expression levels and gene regulation have been at the center of biological research for decades, there are only a few models giving a base line prediction of the dependence of the proteome fraction occupied by a gene with the specific growth rate. We present a simple model that predicts a widely coordinated increase in the fraction of many proteins out of the proteome, proportionally with the growth rate. The model reveals how passive redistribution of resources, due to active regulation of only a few proteins, can have proteome wide effects that are quantitatively predictable. Our model provides a potential explanation for why and how such a coordinated response of a large fraction of the proteome to the specific growth rate arises under different environmental conditions. The simplicity of our model can also be useful by serving as a baseline null hypothesis in the search for active regulation. We exemplify the usage of the model by analyzing the relationship between growth rate and proteome composition for the model microorganism E.coli as reflected in recent proteomics data sets spanning various growth conditions. We find that the fraction out of the proteome of a large number of proteins, and from different cellular processes, increases proportionally with the growth rate. Notably, ribosomal proteins, which have been previously reported to increase in fraction with growth rate, are only a small part of this group of proteins. We suggest that, although the fractions of many proteins change with the growth rate, such changes may be partially driven by a global effect, not necessarily requiring specific cellular control mechanisms.
Index Option Pricing Models with Stochastic Volatility and Stochastic Interest Rates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jiang, G.J.; van der Sluis, P.J.

2000-01-01

This paper specifies a multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) model for the S&P500 index and spot interest rate processes. We first estimate the multivariate SV model via the efficient method of moments (EMM) technique based on observations of underlying state variables, and then investigate the
Mathematical modelling of the death rate dynamics in mammals with intestinal form of radiation sicleness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smirnova, O.A.

1990-01-01

A mathematical models has been developed to describe the death rate dynamics in irradiated mammals. The model links statistical biometric functions with statistical and dynamic characteristics of the organism's 'critical' system. There is an agreement between the results of modelling and experiments with respect to death rate dynamics of small laboratory animals subjected to acute and chronic irradiation with doses and dose-rates at which small intestine epithelium is 'ctitical'
Novel relations between the ergodic capacity and the average bit error rate

KAUST Repository

Yilmaz, Ferkan

2011-11-01

Ergodic capacity and average bit error rate have been widely used to compare the performance of different wireless communication systems. As such recent scientific research and studies revealed strong impact of designing and implementing wireless technologies based on these two performance indicators. However and to the best of our knowledge, the direct links between these two performance indicators have not been explicitly proposed in the literature so far. In this paper, we propose novel relations between the ergodic capacity and the average bit error rate of an overall communication system using binary modulation schemes for signaling with a limited bandwidth and operating over generalized fading channels. More specifically, we show that these two performance measures can be represented in terms of each other, without the need to know the exact end-to-end statistical characterization of the communication channel. We validate the correctness and accuracy of our newly proposed relations and illustrated their usefulness by considering some classical examples. © 2011 IEEE.
A Bayesian hierarchical model with novel prior specifications for estimating HIV testing rates.

Science.gov (United States)

An, Qian; Kang, Jian; Song, Ruiguang; Hall, H Irene

2016-04-30

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is a severe infectious disease actively spreading globally, and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is an advanced stage of HIV infection. The HIV testing rate, that is, the probability that an AIDS-free HIV infected person seeks a test for HIV during a particular time interval, given no previous positive test has been obtained prior to the start of the time, is an important parameter for public health. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with two levels of hierarchy to estimate the HIV testing rate using annual AIDS and AIDS-free HIV diagnoses data. At level one, we model the latent number of HIV infections for each year using a Poisson distribution with the intensity parameter representing the HIV incidence rate. At level two, the annual numbers of AIDS and AIDS-free HIV diagnosed cases and all undiagnosed cases stratified by the HIV infections at different years are modeled using a multinomial distribution with parameters including the HIV testing rate. We propose a new class of priors for the HIV incidence rate and HIV testing rate taking into account the temporal dependence of these parameters to improve the estimation accuracy. We develop an efficient posterior computation algorithm based on the adaptive rejection metropolis sampling technique. We demonstrate our model using simulation studies and the analysis of the national HIV surveillance data in the USA. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Relating business modelling and enterprise architecture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meertens, Lucas Onno

2013-01-01

This thesis proposes a methodology for creating business models, evaluating them, and relating them to enterprise architecture. The methodology consists of several steps, leading from an organization’s current situation to a target situation, via business models and enterprise architecture.
Bayesian Analysis for Dynamic Generalized Linear Latent Model with Application to Tree Survival Rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-sheng Cheng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Logistic regression model is the most popular regression technique, available for modeling categorical data especially for dichotomous variables. Classic logistic regression model is typically used to interpret relationship between response variables and explanatory variables. However, in real applications, most data sets are collected in follow-up, which leads to the temporal correlation among the data. In order to characterize the different variables correlations, a new method about the latent variables is introduced in this study. At the same time, the latent variables about AR (1 model are used to depict time dependence. In the framework of Bayesian analysis, parameters estimates and statistical inferences are carried out via Gibbs sampler with Metropolis-Hastings (MH algorithm. Model comparison, based on the Bayes factor, and forecasting/smoothing of the survival rate of the tree are established. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the proposed method and a pika data set is analyzed to illustrate the real application. Since Bayes factor approaches vary significantly, efficiency tests have been performed in order to decide which solution provides a better tool for the analysis of real relational data sets.
On a sparse pressure-flow rate condensation of rigid circulation models

Science.gov (United States)

Schiavazzi, D. E.; Hsia, T. Y.; Marsden, A. L.

2015-01-01

Cardiovascular simulation has shown potential value in clinical decision-making, providing a framework to assess changes in hemodynamics produced by physiological and surgical alterations. State-of-the-art predictions are provided by deterministic multiscale numerical approaches coupling 3D finite element Navier Stokes simulations to lumped parameter circulation models governed by ODEs. Development of next-generation stochastic multiscale models whose parameters can be learned from available clinical data under uncertainty constitutes a research challenge made more difficult by the high computational cost typically associated with the solution of these models. We present a methodology for constructing reduced representations that condense the behavior of 3D anatomical models using outlet pressure-flow polynomial surrogates, based on multiscale model solutions spanning several heart cycles. Relevance vector machine regression is compared with maximum likelihood estimation, showing that sparse pressure/flow rate approximations offer superior performance in producing working surrogate models to be included in lumped circulation networks. Sensitivities of outlets flow rates are also quantified through a Sobol’ decomposition of their total variance encoded in the orthogonal polynomial expansion. Finally, we show that augmented lumped parameter models including the proposed surrogates accurately reproduce the response of multiscale models they were derived from. In particular, results are presented for models of the coronary circulation with closed loop boundary conditions and the abdominal aorta with open loop boundary conditions. PMID:26671219
Rating Movies and Rating the Raters Who Rate Them.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Hua; Lange, Kenneth

2009-11-01

The movie distribution company Netflix has generated considerable buzz in the statistics community by offering a million dollar prize for improvements to its movie rating system. Among the statisticians and computer scientists who have disclosed their techniques, the emphasis has been on machine learning approaches. This article has the modest goal of discussing a simple model for movie rating and other forms of democratic rating. Because the model involves a large number of parameters, it is nontrivial to carry out maximum likelihood estimation. Here we derive a straightforward EM algorithm from the perspective of the more general MM algorithm. The algorithm is capable of finding the global maximum on a likelihood landscape littered with inferior modes. We apply two variants of the model to a dataset from the MovieLens archive and compare their results. Our model identifies quirky raters, redefines the raw rankings, and permits imputation of missing ratings. The model is intended to stimulate discussion and development of better theory rather than to win the prize. It has the added benefit of introducing readers to some of the issues connected with analyzing high-dimensional data.

Age-Related Differences in Speech Rate Perception Do Not Necessarily Entail Age-Related Differences in Speech Rate Use

Science.gov (United States)

Heffner, Christopher C.; Newman, Rochelle S.; Dilley, Laura C.; Idsardi, William J.

2015-01-01

Purpose: A new literature has suggested that speech rate can influence the parsing of words quite strongly in speech. The purpose of this study was to investigate differences between younger adults and older adults in the use of context speech rate in word segmentation, given that older adults perceive timing information differently from younger…
Renal Transplant Recipients: The Factors Related to Immunosuppressive Medication Adherence Based on the Health Belief Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kung, Pen-Chen; Yeh, Mei Chang; Lai, Ming-Kuen; Liu, Hsueh-Erh

2017-10-01

Kidney transplant failures are caused primarily by lack of adherence to immunosuppressive medication regimens by patients after transplantation. A number of studies have indicated that health-related beliefs are an effective predictor of health-related behavior. The aim of this study is to understand the influence of the personal characteristics and health-related beliefs of patients on adherence to treatment with immunosuppressive medication based on the Health Belief Model. This cross-sectional study distributed questionnaires to patients who had been recruited via purposive sampling at one medical center in Taipei. All of the potential participants had undergone kidney transplantation at least 6 months previously. The self-developed questionnaire collected data in three areas: personal characteristics, health-related beliefs regarding transplant rejection, and adherence to the immunosuppressive medication regimen. One hundred twenty-two valid questionnaires were received. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, independent t test, one-way analysis of variance, Pearson's correlation, and multiple regression. Participants who had received dialysis treatment or had experienced rejection perceived susceptibility to rejection more strongly than those who had not. Participants who had undergone transplantation in Taiwan, had experienced more drug-related symptoms, or had contracted severe to extremely severe infections in the past showed lower rates of adherence to treatment with immunosuppressive medication. Adherence to medication regimens correlated negatively with length of time since transplantation. Length of time since transplantation, drug-related symptoms, perceived susceptibility to rejection, and perceived benefits of treatment were identified as major predictors of adherence to immunosuppressive medication regimens. The results partially conformed to the concepts of the Health Belief Model. Perceived susceptibility to rejection and
Relative measurement of the excitation rate coefficients of the FeXI ion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marotta, A.

1982-01-01

The collision rate coefficients for the iron atoms are measured through the hot plasma obtainment. The physical model used in this determination is the crown stationary model which consider that the excitation by electronic collisions is balanced by the spontaneous emission. This work was realized in a 15Kj theta pinch device, of high pulse reproductibility. The iron-pentacarbonyl [Fe(Co) 5 ] was used as the impurity source of a hydrogen gas. The temperature and density were determined by the scattering light analysis of a rubi laser using the Thomson scattering. (L.C.) [pt
Estimating Infiltration Rates for a Loessal Silt Loam Using Soil Properties

Science.gov (United States)

M. Dean Knighton

1978-01-01

Soil properties were related to infiltration rates as measured by single-ringsteady-head infiltometers. The properties showing strong simple correlations were identified. Regression models were developed to estimate infiltration rate from several soil properties. The best model gave fair agreement to measured rates at another location.
Relational models for knowledge sharing behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boer, N.I.; Berends, J.J.; Baalen, P.

2011-01-01

In this paper we explore the relational dimension of knowledge sharing behavior by proposing a comprehensive theoretical framework for studying knowledge sharing in organizations. This theoretical framework originates from (Fiske, 1991) and (Fiske, 1992) Relational Models Theory (RMT). The RMT
The use of a numerical mass-balance model to estimate rates of soil redistribution on uncultivated land from 137Cs measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Owens, P.N.; Walling, D.E.

1988-01-01

A numerical mass-balance model is developed which can be used to estimate rates of soil redistribution on uncultivated land from measurements of bombderived 137 Cs inventories. The model uses a budgeting approach, which takes account of temporal variations in atmospheric fallout of 137 Cs, radioactive decay, and net gains or losses of 137 Cs due to erosion and deposition processes, combined with parameters which describe internal 137 Cs redistribution processes, to estimate the 137 Cs content of topsoil and the 137 Cs inventory at specific points, from the start of 137 Cs fallout in the 1950s to the present day. The model is also able to account for potential differences in particle size composition and organic matter content between mobilised soil particles and the original soil, and the effect that these may have on 137 Cs concentrations and inventories. By running the model for a range of soil erosion and deposition rates, a calibration relationship can be constructed which relates the 137 Cs inventory at a sampling point to the average net soil loss or gain at that location. In addition to the magnitude and temporal distribution of the 137 Cs atmospheric fallout flux, the soil redistribution rates estimated by the model are sensitive to parameters which describe the relative texture and organic matter content of the eroded or deposited material, and the ability of the soil to retain 137 Cs in the upper part of the soil profile. (Copyright (c) 1988 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)
Stigma, attitudes and help-seeking intentions for psychological problems in relation to regional suicide rates.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reynders, A.; Kerkhof, A.J.F.M.; Molenberghs, G.; Van Audenhove, C.

2016-01-01

In this ecological study, we investigated whether help-seeking related to stigma, intentions, and attitudes toward suicide are associated with the suicide rates of 20 regions within the Netherlands and Belgium. Significant associations were found between regional suicide rates and the intention to
Experimental comparison of rate-dependent hysteresis models in characterizing and compensating hysteresis of piezoelectric tube actuators

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aljanaideh, Omar, E-mail: omaryanni@gmail.com [Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942 (Jordan); Habineza, Didace; Rakotondrabe, Micky [AS2M department, FEMTO-ST Institute, Univ. Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Univ. de Franche-Comté/CNRS/ENSMM, 25000 Besançon (France); Al Janaideh, Mohammad [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The Mechatronics and Microsystems Design Laboratory, University of Toronto (Canada); Department of Mechatronics Engineering, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942 (Jordan)

2016-04-01

An experimental study has been carried out to characterize rate-dependent hysteresis of a piezoelectric tube actuator at different excitation frequencies. The experimental measurements were followed by modeling and compensation of the hysteresis nonlinearities of the piezoelectric tube actuator using both the inverse rate-dependent Prandtl–Ishlinskii model (RDPI) and inverse rate-independent Prandtl–Ishlinskii model (RIPI) coupled with a controller. The comparison of hysteresis modeling and compensation of the actuator with both models is presented.
Experimental comparison of rate-dependent hysteresis models in characterizing and compensating hysteresis of piezoelectric tube actuators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aljanaideh, Omar; Habineza, Didace; Rakotondrabe, Micky; Al Janaideh, Mohammad

2016-01-01

An experimental study has been carried out to characterize rate-dependent hysteresis of a piezoelectric tube actuator at different excitation frequencies. The experimental measurements were followed by modeling and compensation of the hysteresis nonlinearities of the piezoelectric tube actuator using both the inverse rate-dependent Prandtl–Ishlinskii model (RDPI) and inverse rate-independent Prandtl–Ishlinskii model (RIPI) coupled with a controller. The comparison of hysteresis modeling and compensation of the actuator with both models is presented.
Model of the dose rate for a semi industrial irradiation plant. Pt. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mangusi, Josefina

2004-01-01

The second stage of the model for the absorbed dose rate in air for the enclosure of a half-industrialist irradiation plant operating with cobalt-60 sources holden in plan geometry is presented. The sensibility of the model with the treatment of the support structure of the irradiator is analyzed and verified with experimental measurements with good accord. The model of the absorbed dose rate in air in the case of an interposed material between the radioactive sources and the point of interest includes in its calculation a set of secondary radioactive sources created by the Compton scattering of the primary radiation. The accord of the calculated absorbed dose rate and the experimental measured ones is good. The transit dose due to the irradiator moving until its dwell position is also modeled. The isodose curves for a set of irradiator parallel planes are also generated. (author) [es
Analytical Modeling of the High Strain Rate Deformation of Polymer Matrix Composites

Science.gov (United States)

Goldberg, Robert K.; Roberts, Gary D.; Gilat, Amos

2003-01-01

The results presented here are part of an ongoing research program to develop strain rate dependent deformation and failure models for the analysis of polymer matrix composites subject to high strain rate impact loads. State variable constitutive equations originally developed for metals have been modified in order to model the nonlinear, strain rate dependent deformation of polymeric matrix materials. To account for the effects of hydrostatic stresses, which are significant in polymers, the classical 5 plasticity theory definitions of effective stress and effective plastic strain are modified by applying variations of the Drucker-Prager yield criterion. To verify the revised formulation, the shear and tensile deformation of a representative toughened epoxy is analyzed across a wide range of strain rates (from quasi-static to high strain rates) and the results are compared to experimentally obtained values. For the analyzed polymers, both the tensile and shear stress-strain curves computed using the analytical model correlate well with values obtained through experimental tests. The polymer constitutive equations are implemented within a strength of materials based micromechanics method to predict the nonlinear, strain rate dependent deformation of polymer matrix composites. In the micromechanics, the unit cell is divided up into a number of independently analyzed slices, and laminate theory is then applied to obtain the effective deformation of the unit cell. The composite mechanics are verified by analyzing the deformation of a representative polymer matrix composite (composed using the representative polymer analyzed for the correlation of the polymer constitutive equations) for several fiber orientation angles across a variety of strain rates. The computed values compare favorably to experimentally obtained results.
Do resident's leadership skills relate to ratings of technical skill?

Science.gov (United States)

Gannon, Samantha J; Law, Katherine E; Ray, Rebecca D; Nathwani, Jay N; DiMarco, Shannon M; D'Angelo, Anne-Lise D; Pugh, Carla M

2016-12-01

This study sought to compare general surgery research residents' survey information regarding self-efficacy ratings to their observed performance during a simulated small bowel repair. Their observed performance ratings were based on their leadership skills in directing their assistant. Participants were given 15 min to perform a bowel repair using bovine intestines with standardized injuries. Operative assistants were assigned to help assist with the repair. Before the procedure, participants were asked to rate their expected skills decay, task difficulty, and confidence in addressing the small bowel injury. Interactions were coded to identify the number of instructions given by the participants to the assistant during the repair. Statistical analyses assessed the relationship between the number of directional instructions and participants' perceptions self-efficacy measures. Directional instructions were defined as any dialog by the participant who guided the assistant to perform an action. Thirty-six residents (58.3% female) participated in the study. Participants who rated lower levels of decay in their intraoperative decision-making and small bowel repair skills were noted to use their assistant more by giving more instructions. Similarly, a higher number of instructions correlated with lower perceived difficulty in selecting the correct suture, suture pattern, and completing the entire surgical task. General surgery research residents' intraoperative leadership skills showed significant correlations to their perceptions of skill decay and task difficulty during a bowel repair. Evaluating resident's directional instructions may provide an additional individualized intraoperative assessment metric. Further evaluation relating to operative performance outcomes is warranted. Copyright Â© 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Malaria model with periodic mosquito birth and death rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Dembele, Bassidy; Friedman, Avner; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2009-07-01

In this paper, we introduce a model of malaria, a disease that involves a complex life cycle of parasites, requiring both human and mosquito hosts. The novelty of the model is the introduction of periodic coefficients into the system of one-dimensional equations, which account for the seasonal variations (wet and dry seasons) in the mosquito birth and death rates. We define a basic reproduction number R(0) that depends on the periodic coefficients and prove that if R(0)1 then the disease is endemic and may even be periodic.
Influence of the relative deformation rate on tube processing by ultrasonic vibration drawing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Susan, M.; Bujoreanu, L. G.; Galusca, D. G.; Munteanu, C.; Lliescu, V.

2004-01-01

After a brief review of the friction reversion mechanism during ultrasonic vibration drawing of tubes (UVD), the paper introduces a method to determine the drawing force based on the theorem of total consumed power, in the case of tube processing. The experiments performed on tubes made from 10TiNiCr180 (AISI321) austenitic stainless steel confirm the superiority of UVD technology regarding the diminution of the drawing force, the increase of the plasticity and the improvement of the safety coefficient, tendencies that are enhanced with the decrease of the relative drawing rate. The best results were obtained for the relative drawing rate of 0.12 for which the drawing force decreased with 33%, plasticity increased with 9% and safety coefficient with 22%, as compared to CT. (Author) 10 refs
Recombination rate plasticity: revealing mechanisms by design

Science.gov (United States)

Sefick, Stephen; Rushton, Chase

2017-01-01

For over a century, scientists have known that meiotic recombination rates can vary considerably among individuals, and that environmental conditions can modify recombination rates relative to the background. A variety of external and intrinsic factors such as temperature, age, sex and starvation can elicit ‘plastic’ responses in recombination rate. The influence of recombination rate plasticity on genetic diversity of the next generation has interesting and important implications for how populations evolve. Further, many questions remain regarding the mechanisms and molecular processes that contribute to recombination rate plasticity. Here, we review 100 years of experimental work on recombination rate plasticity conducted in Drosophila melanogaster. We categorize this work into four major classes of experimental designs, which we describe via classic studies in D. melanogaster. Based on these studies, we highlight molecular mechanisms that are supported by experimental results and relate these findings to studies in other systems. We synthesize lessons learned from this model system into experimental guidelines for using recent advances in genotyping technologies, to study recombination rate plasticity in non-model organisms. Specifically, we recommend (1) using fine-scale genome-wide markers, (2) collecting time-course data, (3) including crossover distribution measurements, and (4) using mixed effects models to analyse results. To illustrate this approach, we present an application adhering to these guidelines from empirical work we conducted in Drosophila pseudoobscura. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Evolutionary causes and consequences of recombination rate variation in sexual organisms’. PMID:29109222
Age Effects and Temporal Trends in HPV-Related and HPV-Unrelated Oral Cancer in the United States: A Multistage Carcinogenesis Modeling Analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew F Brouwer

Full Text Available Differences in prognosis in HPV-positive and HPV-negative oral (oropharyngeal and oral cavity squamous cell carcinomas (OSCCs and increasing incidence of HPV-related cancers have spurred interest in demographic and temporal trends in OSCC incidence. We leverage multistage clonal expansion (MSCE models coupled with age-period-cohort (APC epidemiological models to analyze OSCC data in the SEER cancer registry (1973-2012. MSCE models are based on the initiation-promotion-malignant conversion paradigm in carcinogenesis and allow for interpretation of trends in terms of biological mechanisms. APC models seek to differentiate between the temporal effects of age, period, and birth cohort on cancer risk. Previous studies have looked at the effect of period and cohort on tumor initiation, and we extend this to compare model fits of period and cohort effects on each of tumor initiation, promotion, and malignant conversion rates. HPV-related, HPV-unrelated except oral tongue, and HPV-unrelated oral tongue sites are best described by placing period and cohort effects on the initiation rate. HPV-related and non-oral-tongue HPV-unrelated cancers have similar promotion rates, suggesting similar tumorigenesis dynamics once initiated. Estimates of promotion rates at oral tongue sites are lower, corresponding to a longer sojourn time; this finding is consistent with the hypothesis of an etiology distinct from HPV or alcohol and tobacco use. Finally, for the three subsite groups, men have higher initiation rates than women of the same race, and black people have higher promotion than white people of the same sex. These differences explain part of the racial and sex differences in OSCC incidence.
Rate Dependence of the Compressive Response of Ti Foams

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nik Petrinic

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Titanium foams of relative density ranging from 0.3 to 0.9 were produced by titanium powder sintering procedures and tested in uniaxial compression at strain rates ranging from 0.01 to 2,000 s−1. The material microstructure was examined by X-ray tomography and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM observations. The foams investigated are strain rate sensitive, with both the yield stress and the strain hardening increasing with applied strain rate, and the strain rate sensitivity is more pronounced in foams of lower relative density. Finite element simulations were conducted modelling explicitly the material’s microstructure at the micron level, via a 3D Voronoi tessellation. Low and high strain rate simulations were conducted in order to predict the material’s compressive response, employing both rate-dependant and rate-independent constitutive models. Results from numerical analyses suggest that the primary source of rate sensitivity is represented by the intrinsic sensitivity of the foam’s parent material.
Demographic trade-offs in a neutral model explain death-rate--abundance-rank relationship.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Kui; Zhang, Da-Yong; He, Fangliang

2009-01-01

The neutral theory of biodiversity has been criticized for its neglect of species differences. Yet it is much less heeded that S. P. Hubbell's definition of neutrality allows species to differ in their birth and death rates as long as they have an equal per capita fitness. Using the lottery model of competition we find that fitness equalization through birth-death trade-offs can make species coexist longer than expected for demographically identical species, whereas the probability of monodominance for a species under zero-sum neutral dynamics is equal to its initial relative abundance. Furthermore, if newly arising species in a community survive preferentially they are more likely to slip through the quagmire of rareness, thus creating a strong selective bias favoring their community membership. On the other hand, high-mortality species, once having gained a footing in the community, are more likely to become abundant due to their compensatory high birth rates. This unexpected result explains why a positive association between species abundance and per capita death rate can be seen in tropical-forest communities. An explicit incorporation of interspecific trade-offs between birth and death into the neutral theory increases the theory's realism as well as its predictive power.
Empirical Model for Predicting Rate of Biogas Production | Adamu ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Rate of biogas production using cow manure as substrate was monitored in two laboratory scale batch reactors (13 liter and 108 liter capacities). Two empirical models based on the Gompertz and the modified logistic equations were used to fit the experimental data based on non-linear regression analysis using Solver tool ...
Evolution of mitochondrial DNA and its relation to basal metabolic rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Ping; Zhao, Huabin; Lu, Xin

2015-08-01

Energy metabolism is essential for the survival of animals, which can be characterized by maximum metabolic rate (MMR) and basal metabolic rate (BMR). Because of the crucial roles of mitochondria in energy metabolism, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) has been subjected to stronger purifying selection in strongly locomotive than weakly locomotive birds and mammals. Although maximum locomotive speed (an indicator of MMR) showed a negative correlation with the evolutionary rate of mtDNA, it is unclear whether BMR has driven the evolution of mtDNA. Here, we take advantage of the large amount of mtDNA and BMR data in 106 mammals to test whether BMR has influenced the mtDNA evolution. Our results showed that, in addition to the locomotive speed, mammals with higher BMR have subjected to stronger purifying selection on mtDNA than did those with lower BMR. The evolution of mammalian mtDNA has been modified by two levels of energy metabolism, including MMR and BMR. Our study provides a more comprehensive view of mtDNA evolution in relation to energy metabolism.

A model for plasticity kinetics and its role in simulating the dynamic behavior of Fe at high strain rates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Colvin, J D; Minich, R W; Kalantar, D H

2007-03-29

The recent diagnostic capability of the Omega laser to study solid-solid phase transitions at pressures greater than 10 GPa and at strain rates exceeding 10{sup 7} s{sup -1} has also provided valuable information on the dynamic elastic-plastic behavior of materials. We have found, for example, that plasticity kinetics modifies the effective loading and thermodynamic paths of the material. In this paper we derive a kinetics equation for the time-dependent plastic response of the material to dynamic loading, and describe the model's implementation in a radiation-hydrodynamics computer code. This model for plasticity kinetics incorporates the Gilman model for dislocation multiplication and saturation. We discuss the application of this model to the simulation of experimental velocity interferometry data for experiments on Omega in which Fe was shock compressed to pressures beyond the {alpha}-to-{var_epsilon} phase transition pressure. The kinetics model is shown to fit the data reasonably well in this high strain rate regime and further allows quantification of the relative contributions of dislocation multiplication and drag. The sensitivity of the observed signatures to the kinetics model parameters is presented.
An improved model for considering strain rate effects on reinforced concrete elements behavior under dynamic loads

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sim, J.; Soroushian, P.

1989-01-01

An improved model for predicting the reinforced concrete element behavior under dynamic strain rates was developed using the layer modeling technique. The developed strain rate sensitive model for axial/flexural analysis of reinforced concrete elements was used to predict the test results, performed at different loading rates, and the predictions were reasonable. The developed analysis technique was used to study the loading rate sensitivity of reinforced concrete beams and columns with different geometry and material properties. Two design formulas for computing the loading rate dependent axial and flexural strengths of reinforced concrete sections are suggested
Development of Copper Corrosion Products and Relation between Surface Appearance and Corrosion Rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lan, Tran Thi Ngoc; Binh, Nguyen Thi Thanh; Tru, Nguyen Nhi; Yoshino, Tsujino; Yasuki, Maeda

2008-01-01

Copper was exposed unsheltered and sheltered in four humid tropical sites, representing urban, urban-industrial, urban-marine and rural environments. The corrosion rates and the sequence of corrosion product formation are presented and discussed in relation with climatic and atmospheric pollution parameters. Chemical compositions of corrosion products were found to depend on environments and duration of exposure. In all environments, cuprite was the predominating corrosion product that formed first and continuously increased during the exposure. Among the sulphur-containing corrosion products, posnjakite and brochantite were more frequently found and the first formed earlier. Nantokite was the most common chlorine-containing products for most cases, except the high-chloride environment, where atacamite was detected instead. The corrosion rate of copper was well indicated by the colour of patina. The red-purple colour corresponded to the high corrosion rate and the greenish grey colour corresponded to the low corrosion rate. Corrosion rate of sheltered copper in urban-marine environment increased with the exposure time
Characteristics of quantum dash laser under the rate equation model framework

KAUST Repository

Khan, Mohammed Zahed Mustafa

2010-09-01

The authors present a numerical model to study the carrier dynamics of InAs/InP quantum dash (QDash) lasers. The model is based on single-state rate equations, which incorporates both, the homogeneous and the inhomogeneous broadening of lasing spectra. The numerical technique also considers the unique features of the QDash gain medium. This model has been applied successfully to analyze the laser spectra of QDash laser. ©2010 IEEE.
A Computational Study on the Relation between Resting Heart Rate and Atrial Fibrillation Hemodynamics under Exercise.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matteo Anselmino

Full Text Available Clinical data indicating a heart rate (HR target during rate control therapy for permanent atrial fibrillation (AF and assessing its eventual relationship with reduced exercise tolerance are lacking. The present study aims at investigating the impact of resting HR on the hemodynamic response to exercise in permanent AF patients by means of a computational cardiovascular model.The AF lumped-parameter model was run to simulate resting (1 Metabolic Equivalent of Task-MET and various exercise conditions (4 METs: brisk walking; 6 METs: skiing; 8 METs: running, considering different resting HR (70 bpm for the slower resting HR-SHR-simulations, and 100 bpm for the higher resting HR-HHR-simulations. To compare relative variations of cardiovascular variables upon exertion, the variation comparative index (VCI-the absolute variation between the exercise and the resting values in SHR simulations referred to the absolute variation in HHR simulations-was calculated at each exercise grade (VCI4, VCI6 and VCI8.Pulmonary venous pressure underwent a greater increase in HHR compared to SHR simulations (VCI4 = 0.71, VCI6 = 0.73 and VCI8 = 0.77, while for systemic arterial pressure the opposite is true (VCI4 = 1.15, VCI6 = 1.36, VCI8 = 1.56.The computational findings suggest that a slower, with respect to a higher resting HR, might be preferable in permanent AF patients, since during exercise pulmonary venous pressure undergoes a slighter increase and systemic blood pressure reveals a more appropriate increase.
A Computational Study on the Relation between Resting Heart Rate and Atrial Fibrillation Hemodynamics under Exercise.

Science.gov (United States)

Anselmino, Matteo; Scarsoglio, Stefania; Saglietto, Andrea; Gaita, Fiorenzo; Ridolfi, Luca

2017-01-01

Clinical data indicating a heart rate (HR) target during rate control therapy for permanent atrial fibrillation (AF) and assessing its eventual relationship with reduced exercise tolerance are lacking. The present study aims at investigating the impact of resting HR on the hemodynamic response to exercise in permanent AF patients by means of a computational cardiovascular model. The AF lumped-parameter model was run to simulate resting (1 Metabolic Equivalent of Task-MET) and various exercise conditions (4 METs: brisk walking; 6 METs: skiing; 8 METs: running), considering different resting HR (70 bpm for the slower resting HR-SHR-simulations, and 100 bpm for the higher resting HR-HHR-simulations). To compare relative variations of cardiovascular variables upon exertion, the variation comparative index (VCI)-the absolute variation between the exercise and the resting values in SHR simulations referred to the absolute variation in HHR simulations-was calculated at each exercise grade (VCI4, VCI6 and VCI8). Pulmonary venous pressure underwent a greater increase in HHR compared to SHR simulations (VCI4 = 0.71, VCI6 = 0.73 and VCI8 = 0.77), while for systemic arterial pressure the opposite is true (VCI4 = 1.15, VCI6 = 1.36, VCI8 = 1.56). The computational findings suggest that a slower, with respect to a higher resting HR, might be preferable in permanent AF patients, since during exercise pulmonary venous pressure undergoes a slighter increase and systemic blood pressure reveals a more appropriate increase.
Application of transient burning rate model of solid propellant in electrothermal-chemical launch simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan-jie Ni

2016-04-01

Full Text Available A 30 mm electrothermal-chemical (ETC gun experimental system is employed to research the burning rate characteristics of 4/7 high-nitrogen solid propellant. Enhanced gas generation rates (EGGR of propellants during and after electrical discharges are verified in the experiments. A modified 0D internal ballistic model is established to simulate the ETC launch. According to the measured pressure and electrical parameters, a transient burning rate law including the influence of EGGR coefficient by electric power and pressure gradient (dp/dt is added into the model. The EGGR coefficient of 4/7 high-nitrogen solid propellant is equal to 0.005 MW−1. Both simulated breech pressure and projectile muzzle velocity accord with the experimental results well. Compared with Woodley's modified burning rate law, the breech pressure curves acquired by the transient burning rate law are more consistent with test results. Based on the parameters calculated in the model, the relationship among propellant burning rate, pressure gradient (dp/dt and electric power is analyzed. Depending on the transient burning rate law and experimental data, the burning of solid propellant under the condition of plasma is described more accurately.
A Study of How the Watts-Strogatz Model Relates to an Economic System’s Utility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lunhan Luo

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Watts-Strogatz model is a main mechanism to construct the small-world networks. It is widely used in the simulations of small-world featured systems including economic system. Formally, the model contains a parameters set including three variables representing group size, number of neighbors, and rewiring probability. This paper discusses how the parameters set relates to the economic system performance which is utility growth rate. In conclusion, it is found that, regardless of the group size and rewiring probability, 2 to 18 neighbors can help the economic system reach the highest utility growth rate. Furthermore, given the range of neighbors and group size of a Watts-Strogatz model based system, the range of its edges can be calculated too. By examining the containment relationship between that range and the edge number of an actual equal-size economic system, we could know whether the system structure has redundant edges or can achieve the highest utility growth ratio.
An Architecturally Constrained Model of Random Number Generation and its Application to Modelling the Effect of Generation Rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicholas J. Sexton

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Random number generation (RNG is a complex cognitive task for human subjects, requiring deliberative control to avoid production of habitual, stereotyped sequences. Under various manipulations (e.g., speeded responding, transcranial magnetic stimulation, or neurological damage the performance of human subjects deteriorates, as reflected in a number of qualitatively distinct, dissociable biases. For example, the intrusion of stereotyped behaviour (e.g., counting increases at faster rates of generation. Theoretical accounts of the task postulate that it requires the integrated operation of multiple, computationally heterogeneous cognitive control ('executive' processes. We present a computational model of RNG, within the framework of a novel, neuropsychologically-inspired cognitive architecture, ESPro. Manipulating the rate of sequence generation in the model reproduced a number of key effects observed in empirical studies, including increasing sequence stereotypy at faster rates. Within the model, this was due to time limitations on the interaction of supervisory control processes, namely, task setting, proposal of responses, monitoring, and response inhibition. The model thus supports the fractionation of executive function into multiple, computationally heterogeneous processes.
Relating Derived Relations as a Model of Analogical Reasoning: Reaction Times and Event-Related Potentials

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes-Holmes, Dermot; Regan, Donal; Barnes-Holmes, Yvonne; Commins, Sean; Walsh, Derek; Stewart, Ian; Smeets, Paul M.; Whelan, Robert; Dymond, Simon

2005-01-01

The current study aimed to test a Relational Frame Theory (RFT) model of analogical reasoning based on the relating of derived same and derived difference relations. Experiment 1 recorded reaction time measures of similar-similar (e.g., "apple is to orange as dog is to cat") versus different-different (e.g., "he is to his brother as…
Target oriented relational model finding

OpenAIRE

Cunha, Alcino; Macedo, Nuno Filipe Moreira; Guimarães, Tiago Miguel Moreira

2014-01-01

Lecture Notes in Computer Science 8411, 2014 Model finders are becoming useful in many software engineering problems. Kodkod is one of the most popular, due to its support for relational logic (a combination of first order logic with relational algebra operators and transitive closure), allowing a simpler specification of constraints, and support for partial instances, allowing the specification of a priori (exact, but potentially partial) knowledge about a problem's solution. However, in ...
A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rubin, Edward S.; Azevedo, Inês M.L.; Jaramillo, Paulina; Yeh, Sonia

2015-01-01

A variety of mathematical models have been proposed to characterize and quantify the dependency of electricity supply technology costs on various drivers of technological change. The most prevalent model form, called a learning curve, or experience curve, is a log-linear equation relating the unit cost of a technology to its cumulative installed capacity or electricity generated. This one-factor model is also the most common method used to represent endogenous technical change in large-scale energy-economic models that inform energy planning and policy analysis. A characteristic parameter is the “learning rate,” defined as the fractional reduction in cost for each doubling of cumulative production or capacity. In this paper, a literature review of the learning rates reported for 11 power generation technologies employing an array of fossil fuels, nuclear, and renewable energy sources is presented. The review also includes multi-factor models proposed for some energy technologies, especially two-factor models relating cost to cumulative expenditures for research and development (R&D) as well as the cumulative installed capacity or electricity production of a technology. For all technologies studied, we found substantial variability (as much as an order of magnitude) in reported learning rates across different studies. Such variability is not readily explained by systematic differences in the time intervals, geographic regions, choice of independent variable, or other parameters of each study. This uncertainty in learning rates, together with other limitations of current learning curve formulations, suggests the need for much more careful and systematic examination of the influence of how different factors and assumptions affect policy-relevant outcomes related to the future choice and cost of electricity supply and other energy technologies. - Highlights: • We review models explaining the cost of 11 electricity supply technologies. • The most prevalent model
A new rate-dependent model for high-frequency tracking performance enhancement of piezoactuator system

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Lizhi; Xiong, Zhenhua; Wu, Jianhua; Ding, Han

2017-05-01

Feedforward-feedback control is widely used in motion control of piezoactuator systems. Due to the phase lag caused by incomplete dynamics compensation, the performance of the composite controller is greatly limited at high frequency. This paper proposes a new rate-dependent model to improve the high-frequency tracking performance by reducing dynamics compensation error. The rate-dependent model is designed as a function of the input and input variation rate to describe the input-output relationship of the residual system dynamics which mainly performs as phase lag in a wide frequency band. Then the direct inversion of the proposed rate-dependent model is used to compensate the residual system dynamics. Using the proposed rate-dependent model as feedforward term, the open loop performance can be improved significantly at medium-high frequency. Then, combining the with feedback controller, the composite controller can provide enhanced close loop performance from low frequency to high frequency. At the frequency of 1 Hz, the proposed controller presents the same performance as previous methods. However, at the frequency of 900 Hz, the tracking error is reduced to be 30.7% of the decoupled approach.
Should Law Keep Pace with Society? Relative Update Rates Determine the Co-Evolution of Institutional Punishment and Citizen Contributions to Public Goods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daria Roithmayr

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Until recently, theorists considering the evolution of human cooperation have paid little attention to institutional punishment, a defining feature of large-scale human societies. Compared to individually-administered punishment, institutional punishment offers a unique potential advantage: the ability to control how quickly legal rules of punishment evolve relative to social behavior that legal punishment regulates. However, at what rate should legal rules evolve relative to society to maximize compliance? We investigate this question by modeling the co-evolution of law and cooperation in a public goods game with centralized punishment. We vary the rate at which States update their legal punishment strategy relative to Citizens’ updating of their contribution strategy and observe the effect on Citizen cooperation. We find that when States have unlimited resources, slower State updating lead to more Citizen cooperation: by updating more slowly, States force Citizens to adapt to the legal punishment rules. When States depend on Citizens to finance their punishment activities, however, we find evidence of a ‘Goldilocks’ effect: optimal compliance is achieved when legal rules evolve at a critical evolutionary rate that is slow enough to force citizens to adapt, but fast enough to enable states to quickly respond to outbreaks of citizen lawlessness.
Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

Science.gov (United States)

Lahmiri, Salim

2017-04-01

Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.
Relating derived relations as a model of analogical reasoning: reaction times and event-related potentials.

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes-Holmes, Dermot; Regan, Donal; Barnes-Holmes, Yvonne; Commins, Sean; Walsh, Derek; Stewart, Ian; Smeets, Paul M; Whelan, Robert; Dymond, Simon

2005-11-01

The current study aimed to test a Relational Frame Theory (RFT) model of analogical reasoning based on the relating of derived same and derived difference relations. Experiment 1 recorded reaction time measures of similar-similar (e.g., "apple is to orange as dog is to cat") versus different-different (e.g., "he is to his brother as chalk is to cheese") derived relational responding, in both speed-contingent and speed-noncontingent conditions. Experiment 2 examined the event-related potentials (ERPs) associated with these two response patterns. Both experiments showed similar-similar responding to be significantly faster than different-different responding. Experiment 2 revealed significant differences between the waveforms of the two response patterns in the left-hemispheric prefrontal regions; different-different waveforms were significantly more negative than similar-similar waveforms. The behavioral and neurophysiological data support the RFT prediction that, all things being equal, similar-similar responding is relationally "simpler" than, and functionally distinct from, different-different analogical responding. The ERP data were fully consistent with findings in the neurocognitive literature on analogy. These findings strengthen the validity of the RFT model of analogical reasoning and supplement the behavior-analytic approach to analogy based on the relating of derived relations.
Forecasting the mortality rates of Malaysian population using Heligman-Pollard model

Science.gov (United States)

Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty; Mohd, Razak; Ngataman, Nuraini; Abrisam, Wan Nur Azifah Wan Mohd

2017-08-01

Actuaries, demographers and other professionals have always been aware of the critical importance of mortality forecasting due to declining trend of mortality and continuous increases in life expectancy. Heligman-Pollard model was introduced in 1980 and has been widely used by researchers in modelling and forecasting future mortality. This paper aims to estimate an eight-parameter model based on Heligman and Pollard's law of mortality. Since the model involves nonlinear equations that are explicitly difficult to solve, the Matrix Laboratory Version 7.0 (MATLAB 7.0) software will be used in order to estimate the parameters. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) will be applied to forecast all the parameters according to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The empirical data sets of Malaysian population for period of 1981 to 2015 for both genders will be considered, which the period of 1981 to 2010 will be used as "training set" and the period of 2011 to 2015 as "testing set". In order to investigate the accuracy of the estimation, the forecast results will be compared against actual data of mortality rates. The result shows that Heligman-Pollard model fit well for male population at all ages while the model seems to underestimate the mortality rates for female population at the older ages.
Associations between adult attachment and: oral health-related quality of life, oral health behaviour, and self-rated oral health.

Science.gov (United States)

Meredith, Pamela; Strong, Jenny; Ford, Pauline; Branjerdporn, Grace

2016-02-01

Although adult attachment theory has been revealed as a useful theoretical framework for understanding a range of health parameters, the associations between adult attachment patterns and a range of oral health parameters have not yet been examined. The aim of this study was to examine potential associations between attachment insecurity and: (1) oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL), (2) oral health behaviours, and (3) self-rated oral health. In association with this aim, sample characteristics were compared with normative data. The sample in this cross-sectional study was comprised of 265 healthy adults, recruited via convenience sampling. Data were collected on attachment patterns (Experiences in Close Relationships Scale-Short Form, ECR-S), OHRQoL (Oral Health Impact Profile-14, OHIP-14), oral health behaviours (modified Dental Neglect Scale, m-DNS), and self-rated oral health (one-item global rating of oral health). Multivariate regression models were performed. Both dimensions of attachment insecurity were associated with lowered use of favourable dental visiting behaviours, as well as decreased OHRQoL for both overall well-being and specific aspects of OHRQoL. Attachment avoidance was linked with diminished self-rated oral health. This study supports the potential value of an adult attachment framework for understanding a range of oral health parameters. The assessment of a client's attachment pattern may assist in the identification of people who are at risk of diminished OHRQoL, less adaptive dental visiting behaviours, or poorer oral health. Further research in this field may inform ways in which attachment approaches can enhance oral health-related interventions.
An Empirical Study of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in China

OpenAIRE

Xiaowen Jin

2012-01-01

This paper seeks to estimate exchange rate pass-through in China and investigate its relationship with monetary policy. Linear and VAR models are applied to analyze robustness. The linear model shows that, over the long run, a 1% appreciation of NEER causes a decline in the CPI inflation rate of 0.132% and PPI inflation rate of 0.495%. The VAR model supports the results of the linear model, suggesting a fairly low CPI pass-through and relatively higher PPI pass-through. Furthermore, thi...
An experimental model for measuring gastrointestinal bleeding rate using Tc-99m DTPA in rabbits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Owunwanne, A.; Abdel-Dayem, H.M.; Sadek, S.; Yakoub, T.; Mahajan, K.K.; Ericsson, S.B.

1987-01-01

An animal experimental model to measure the rate of gastrointestinal bleeding rate in a rabbit using Tc-99m DTPA is described. It was possible to detect a bleeding rate of 0.1 ml/min. However, the model could not be used to calculate the minimum amount of radioactivity needed to detect the bleeding site. (orig.) [de

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