WorldWideScience

Sample records for relative rate model

  1. Factoring vs linear modeling in rate estimation: a simulation study of relative accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maldonado, G; Greenland, S

    1998-07-01

    A common strategy for modeling dose-response in epidemiology is to transform ordered exposures and covariates into sets of dichotomous indicator variables (that is, to factor the variables). Factoring tends to increase estimation variance, but it also tends to decrease bias and thus may increase or decrease total accuracy. We conducted a simulation study to examine the impact of factoring on the accuracy of rate estimation. Factored and unfactored Poisson regression models were fit to follow-up study datasets that were randomly generated from 37,500 population model forms that ranged from subadditive to supramultiplicative. In the situations we examined, factoring sometimes substantially improved accuracy relative to fitting the corresponding unfactored model, sometimes substantially decreased accuracy, and sometimes made little difference. The difference in accuracy between factored and unfactored models depended in a complicated fashion on the difference between the true and fitted model forms, the strength of exposure and covariate effects in the population, and the study size. It may be difficult in practice to predict when factoring is increasing or decreasing accuracy. We recommend, therefore, that the strategy of factoring variables be supplemented with other strategies for modeling dose-response.

  2. Cost-related model for transit rates in electric power distribution networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collstrand, F.

    1994-02-01

    The planned deregulation of the swedish electrical power market will require a new structure of the electrical energy rates. In this report different models of transit rates are studied. The report includes studies of literature and a proposal to a rate structure and is made specifically for Malmoe Energi AB. The differences between various methods of calculating the transfer cost are illustrated. Further, the build-up of the tariff structure and its base elements are discussed. The costs are divided on different categories of costumers and shows the cost for each customer. The new regulations should apply simultaneously to all networks, independent of the voltage level. The transit cost should be based on a number of basic elements: capital cost, operation and maintenance, losses, measuring and administration. Capital cost and operation and maintenance should be charged as power fees, the loss cost as an energy fee and the measuring and administration cost as a fixed fee. The customer bill should be split into two parts, one for the transit cost and one for the energy usage. 15 refs., 37 tabs., 6 figs

  3. Lapse rate modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Giovanni, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    prepayment models for mortgage backed securities, this paper builds a Rational Expectation (RE) model describing the policyholders' behavior in lapsing the contract. A market model with stochastic interest rates is considered, and the pricing is carried out through numerical approximation...

  4. Lapse Rate Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Giovanni, Domenico

    prepayment models for mortgage backed securities, this paper builds a Rational Expectation (RE) model describing the policyholders' behavior in lapsing the contract. A market model with stochastic interest rates is considered, and the pricing is carried out through numerical approximation...

  5. Large-Scale Variation in Forest Carbon Turnover Rate and its Relation to Climate - Remote Sensing vs. Global Vegetation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalhais, N.; Thurner, M.; Beer, C.; Forkel, M.; Rademacher, T. T.; Santoro, M.; Tum, M.; Schmullius, C.

    2015-12-01

    While vegetation productivity is known to be strongly correlated to climate, there is a need for an improved understanding of the underlying processes of vegetation carbon turnover and their importance at a global scale. This shortcoming has been due to the lack of spatially extensive information on vegetation carbon stocks, which we recently have been able to overcome by a biomass dataset covering northern boreal and temperate forests originating from radar remote sensing. Based on state-of-the-art products on biomass and NPP, we are for the first time able to study the relation between carbon turnover rate and a set of climate indices in northern boreal and temperate forests. The implementation of climate-related mortality processes, for instance drought, fire, frost or insect effects, is often lacking or insufficient in current global vegetation models. In contrast to our observation-based findings, investigated models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT, are able to reproduce spatial climate - turnover rate relationships only to a limited extent. While most of the models compare relatively well to observation-based NPP, simulated vegetation carbon stocks are severely biased compared to our biomass dataset. Current limitations lead to considerable uncertainties in the estimated vegetation carbon turnover, contributing substantially to the forest feedback to climate change. Our results are the basis for improving mortality concepts in global vegetation models and estimating their impact on the land carbon balance.

  6. Rate and State Friction Relation for Nanoscale Contacts: Thermally Activated Prandtl-Tomlinson Model with Chemical Aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Kaiwen; Goldsby, David L.; Carpick, Robert W.

    2018-05-01

    Rate and state friction (RSF) laws are widely used empirical relationships that describe macroscale to microscale frictional behavior. They entail a linear combination of the direct effect (the increase of friction with sliding velocity due to the reduced influence of thermal excitations) and the evolution effect (the change in friction with changes in contact "state," such as the real contact area or the degree of interfacial chemical bonds). Recent atomic force microscope (AFM) experiments and simulations found that nanoscale single-asperity amorphous silica-silica contacts exhibit logarithmic aging (increasing friction with time) over several decades of contact time, due to the formation of interfacial chemical bonds. Here we establish a physically based RSF relation for such contacts by combining the thermally activated Prandtl-Tomlinson (PTT) model with an evolution effect based on the physics of chemical aging. This thermally activated Prandtl-Tomlinson model with chemical aging (PTTCA), like the PTT model, uses the loading point velocity for describing the direct effect, not the tip velocity (as in conventional RSF laws). Also, in the PTTCA model, the combination of the evolution and direct effects may be nonlinear. We present AFM data consistent with the PTTCA model whereby in aging tests, for a given hold time, static friction increases with the logarithm of the loading point velocity. Kinetic friction also increases with the logarithm of the loading point velocity at sufficiently high velocities, but at a different increasing rate. The discrepancy between the rates of increase of static and kinetic friction with velocity arises from the fact that appreciable aging during static contact changes the energy landscape. Our approach extends the PTT model, originally used for crystalline substrates, to amorphous materials. It also establishes how conventional RSF laws can be modified for nanoscale single-asperity contacts to provide a physically based friction

  7. Ameliorative effects of low dose/low dose-rate irradiation on reactive oxygen species-related diseases model mice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomura, Takaharu

    2008-01-01

    Living organisms have developed complex biological system which protects themselves against environmental radiation, and irradiation with proper dose, dose-rate and irradiation time can stimulate their biological responses against oxidative stress evoked by the irradiation. Because reactive oxygen species are involved in various human diseases, non-toxic low dose/low dose-rate radiation can be utilized for the amelioration of such diseases. In this study, we used mouse experimental models for fatty liver, nephritis, diabetes, and ageing to elucidate the ameliorative effect of low dose/low dose-rate radiation in relation to endogenous antioxidant activity. Single irradiation at 0.5 Gy ameliorates carbon tetrachloride-induced fatty liver. The irradiation increases hepatic anti-oxidative system involving glutathione and glutathione peroxidase, suggesting that endogenous radical scavenger is essential for the ameliorative effect of low dose radiation on carbon tetrachloride-induced fatty liver. Single irradiation at 0.5 Gy ameliorates ferric nitrilotriacetate-induced nephritis. The irradiation increases catalase and decreases superoxide dismutase in kidney. The result suggests that low dose radiation reduced generation of hydroxide radical generation by reducing cellular hydroperoxide level. Single irradiation at 0.5 Gy at 12 week of age ameliorates incidence of type I diabetes in non-obese diabetic (NOD) mice through the suppression of inflammatory activity of splenocytes, and resultant apoptosis of β-cells in pancreas. The irradiation activities of superoxide dismutase and catalase, which coordinately diminish intracellular reactive oxygen species. Continuous irradiation at 0.70 mGy/hr from 10 week of age elongates life span, and suppresses alopecia in type II diabetesmice. The irradiation improved glucose clearance without affecting insulin-resistance, and increased pancreatic catalase activity. The results suggest that continuous low dose-rate irradiation protect

  8. Influence of helium generation rate and temperature history on mechanical properties of model Fe-Cr-Ni alloys irradiated in FFTF at relatively low displacement rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, M.L.; Garner, F.A.; Edwards, D.J.

    1993-01-01

    In agreement with earlier studies conducted at higher displacement rates, evolution of mechanical properties of model Fe-Cr-Ni alloys irradiated at lower displacement rates in the 59 Ni isotopic doping experiment does not appear to be strongly affected by large differences in helium generation rate. This insensitivity to helium/dpa ratio is exhibited during both isothermal and non-isothermal irradiation. The overall behavior of the model alloys used in this study is dominated by the tendency to converge to a saturation strength level that is independent of thermomechanical starting state and helium/dpa ratio, but which is dependent on irradiation temperature and alloy composition

  9. Internal state variable plasticity-damage modeling of AISI 4140 steel including microstructure-property relations: temperature and strain rate effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nacif el Alaoui, Reda

    Mechanical structure-property relations have been quantified for AISI 4140 steel. under different strain rates and temperatures. The structure-property relations were used. to calibrate a microstructure-based internal state variable plasticity-damage model for. monotonic tension, compression and torsion plasticity, as well as damage evolution. Strong stress state and temperature dependences were observed for the AISI 4140 steel. Tension tests on three different notched Bridgman specimens were undertaken to study. the damage-triaxiality dependence for model validation purposes. Fracture surface. analysis was performed using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) to quantify the void. nucleation and void sizes in the different specimens. The stress-strain behavior exhibited. a fairly large applied stress state (tension, compression dependence, and torsion), a. moderate temperature dependence, and a relatively small strain rate dependence.

  10. Relaxed Poisson cure rate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Josemar; Cordeiro, Gauss M; Cancho, Vicente G; Balakrishnan, N

    2016-03-01

    The purpose of this article is to make the standard promotion cure rate model (Yakovlev and Tsodikov, ) more flexible by assuming that the number of lesions or altered cells after a treatment follows a fractional Poisson distribution (Laskin, ). It is proved that the well-known Mittag-Leffler relaxation function (Berberan-Santos, ) is a simple way to obtain a new cure rate model that is a compromise between the promotion and geometric cure rate models allowing for superdispersion. So, the relaxed cure rate model developed here can be considered as a natural and less restrictive extension of the popular Poisson cure rate model at the cost of an additional parameter, but a competitor to negative-binomial cure rate models (Rodrigues et al., ). Some mathematical properties of a proper relaxed Poisson density are explored. A simulation study and an illustration of the proposed cure rate model from the Bayesian point of view are finally presented. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  11. Connecting Related Rates and Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Keith

    2012-01-01

    This article points out a simple connection between related rates and differential equations. The connection can be used for in-class examples or homework exercises, and it is accessible to students who are familiar with separation of variables.

  12. Inflation Rate Modelling in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rezzy Eko Caraka

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The purposes of this research were to analyse: (i Modelling the inflation rate in Indonesia with parametric regression. (ii Modelling the inflation rate in Indonesia using non-parametric regression spline multivariable (iii Determining the best model the inflation rate in Indonesia (iv Explaining the relationship inflation model parametric and non-parametric regression spline multivariable. Based on the analysis using the two methods mentioned the coefficient of determination (R2 in parametric regression of 65.1% while non-parametric amounted to 99.39%. To begin with, the factor of money supply or money stock, crude oil prices and the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar is significant on the rate of inflation. The stability of inflation is essential to support sustainable economic development and improve people's welfare. In conclusion, unstable inflation will complicate business planning business activities, both in production and investment activities as well as in the pricing of goods and services produced.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v15i2.3260

  13. INES rating of radiation protection related events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hort, M.

    2009-01-01

    In this presentation, based on the draft Manual, a short review of the use of the INES rating of events concerning radiation protection is given, based on a new INES User's Manual edition. The presentation comprises a brief history of the scale development, general description of the scale and the main principles of the INES rating. Several examples of the use of the scale for radiation protection related events are mentioned. In the presentation, the term 'radiation protection related events' is used for radiation source and transport related events outside the nuclear installations. (authors)

  14. A Bigraph Relational Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beauquier, Maxime; Schürmann, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we present a model based on relations for bigraphical reactive system [Milner09]. Its defining characteristics are that validity and reaction relations are captured as traces in a multi-set rewriting system. The relational model is derived from Milner's graphical definition...

  15. Related Rates and the Speed of Light.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althoen, S. C.; Weidner, J. F.

    1985-01-01

    Standard calculus textbooks often include a related rates problem involving light cast onto a straight line by a revolving light source. Mathematical aspects to these problems (both in the solution and in the method by which that solution is obtained) are examined. (JN)

  16. The impact of long-term water stress on relative growth rate and morphology of needles and shoots of Metasequoia glyptostroboides seedlings: research toward identifying mechanistic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yanxiang; Equiza, Maria Alejandra; Zheng, Quanshui; Tyree, Melvin T

    2011-09-01

    Leaf morphology in the upper canopy of trees tends to be different from that lower down. The effect of long-term water stress on leaf growth and morphology was studied in seedlings of Metasequoia glyptostroboides to understand how tree height might affect leaf morphology in larger trees. Tree height increases water stress on growing leaves through increased hydraulic resistance to water flow and increased gravitational potential, hence we assume that water stress imposed by soil dehydration will have an effect equivalent to stress induced by height. Seedlings were subjected to well-watered and two constant levels of long-term water stress treatments. Drought treatment significantly reduced final needle count, area and mass per area (leaf mass area, LMA) and increased needle density. Needles from water-stressed plants had lower maximum volumetric elastic modulus (ε(max)), osmotic potential at full turgor (Ψ¹⁰⁰(π)) (and at zero turgor (Ψ⁰(π)) (than those from well-watered plants. Palisade and spongy mesophyll cell size and upper epidermal cell size decreased significantly in drought treatments. Needle relative growth rate, needle length and cell sizes were linear functions of the daily average water potential at the time of leaf growth (r² 0.88-0.999). We conclude that water stress alone does mimic the direction and magnitude of changes in leaf morphology observed in tall trees. The results are discussed in terms of various models for leaf growth rate. Copyright © Physiologia Plantarum 2011.

  17. Models as Relational Categories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokkonen, Tommi

    2017-11-01

    Model-based learning (MBL) has an established position within science education. It has been found to enhance conceptual understanding and provide a way for engaging students in authentic scientific activity. Despite ample research, few studies have examined the cognitive processes regarding learning scientific concepts within MBL. On the other hand, recent research within cognitive science has examined the learning of so-called relational categories. Relational categories are categories whose membership is determined on the basis of the common relational structure. In this theoretical paper, I argue that viewing models as relational categories provides a well-motivated cognitive basis for MBL. I discuss the different roles of models and modeling within MBL (using ready-made models, constructive modeling, and generative modeling) and discern the related cognitive aspects brought forward by the reinterpretation of models as relational categories. I will argue that relational knowledge is vital in learning novel models and in the transfer of learning. Moreover, relational knowledge underlies the coherent, hierarchical knowledge of experts. Lastly, I will examine how the format of external representations may affect the learning of models and the relevant relations. The nature of the learning mechanisms underlying students' mental representations of models is an interesting open question to be examined. Furthermore, the ways in which the expert-like knowledge develops and how to best support it is in need of more research. The discussion and conceptualization of models as relational categories allows discerning students' mental representations of models in terms of evolving relational structures in greater detail than previously done.

  18. The Vietnamese lending rate, policy-related rate, and monetary policy post-1997 Asian financial crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chu V. Nguyen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Asymmetries in the Vietnamese lending central bank’s policy-related rate spread were documented. Empirical results revealed that the spread adjusts to the threshold faster when the central bank’s policy-related rates decrease relative to the lending rates than when the central bank’s policy-related rates move in the opposite direction. Additionally, the empirical findings indicate that Vietnamese commercial banks exhibit competitive rate setting behavior which may be attributable to graft maximization by bank’s management. The results also show bidirectional Granger causality between the Vietnamese lending rate and the central bank’s policy-related rate, indicating that the lending rate and the central bank’s policy-related rate affect each other’s movements. These results suggest that monetary authority can use its countercyclical monetary policy instruments to achieve its macroeconomics objectives. However, the estimation results of the GARCH (2, 3-in-Mean model suggest that they should intervene more frequently and by small policy measures to minimize the conditional variance of the spread to minimize the magnitude of the cycle of the lending rate.

  19. Modelling the consequences of crop-wild relative gene flow: A sensitivity analysis of the effects of outcrossing rates and hybrid vigour breakdown in Lactuca

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hooftman, D.A.P.; Oostermeijer, J.G.B.; Marquard, E.; den Nijs, J.C.M.

    2008-01-01

    1. Hybridization between crops and their wild relatives may enhance invasiveness and change their niche dynamics. This is regarded as a major biosafety problem in terms of the development of noxious, invasive weeds and the loss of the genetic identity of native species. Modelling the consequences of

  20. Model Estimates Of Gross Domestic Product In Relation to Export And Import Of Fuels, Focused on the Elasticity and Determination Of Directly and Indirectly Associated Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe Săvoiu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is based on several interrogative assumptions related to the positive impact of the crises and the recession on determinations in the econometric models of Romania’s GDP as a variable dependent in relation to the export and import of fuels. After a short introductory section, which details, in a relative manner, the overall goal and the objectives of the paper, a first section makes use of elasticity and the modern solutions of building the coefficient of elasticity, proposing an original alternative to existing variants, and afterwards the next section builds on these statistical tools in the econometric modeling of Romania’s GDP, starting from the ratios and value indicators and offering a few original models where the export and import of fuels are the key initial explanatory factors. The final remarks reinterpret the role of the energy resources, as well as that of the related flows, in enhancing statistical connections, and especially the role of crises and recessions in validating econometric models, by raising their degree of predictability.

  1. Exchange RateRelative Price Nonlinear Cointegration Relationship in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Venus Khim-Sen Liew; Chee-Keong Choong; Evan Lau; Kian-Ping Lim

    2005-01-01

    The finding of exchange rate–relative price nonlinear cointegration relationship in Malaysia, among others, suggests that nonlinear Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) equilibrium may be regarded as reference point in judging the short run misalignment of the Ringgit currency and thereby deducing effective policy actions. Moreover, economists who wish to extend the simple PPP exchange rate model into the more complicated monetary exchange models may do so comfortably, at least in the text of Malays...

  2. Discriminative Relational Topic Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ning; Zhu, Jun; Xia, Fei; Zhang, Bo

    2015-05-01

    Relational topic models (RTMs) provide a probabilistic generative process to describe both the link structure and document contents for document networks, and they have shown promise on predicting network structures and discovering latent topic representations. However, existing RTMs have limitations in both the restricted model expressiveness and incapability of dealing with imbalanced network data. To expand the scope and improve the inference accuracy of RTMs, this paper presents three extensions: 1) unlike the common link likelihood with a diagonal weight matrix that allows the-same-topic interactions only, we generalize it to use a full weight matrix that captures all pairwise topic interactions and is applicable to asymmetric networks; 2) instead of doing standard Bayesian inference, we perform regularized Bayesian inference (RegBayes) with a regularization parameter to deal with the imbalanced link structure issue in real networks and improve the discriminative ability of learned latent representations; and 3) instead of doing variational approximation with strict mean-field assumptions, we present collapsed Gibbs sampling algorithms for the generalized relational topic models by exploring data augmentation without making restricting assumptions. Under the generic RegBayes framework, we carefully investigate two popular discriminative loss functions, namely, the logistic log-loss and the max-margin hinge loss. Experimental results on several real network datasets demonstrate the significance of these extensions on improving prediction performance.

  3. Stochastic interest rates model in compounding | Galadima ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Stochastic interest rates model in compounding. ... in finance, real estate, insurance, accounting and other areas of business administration. The assumption that future rates are fixed and known with certainty at the beginning of an investment, ...

  4. Relative growth rate of rich fen bryophytes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Dagmar Kappel; Ejrnæs, Rasmus; Riis, Tenna

    Rigkær er blandt den nordlige halvkugles mest artsrige naturtyper, og en lang række sjældne og truede plantearter er knyttet til netop disse områder. I dette forsøg undersøges den relative vækstrate hos to almindelige og to sjældne rigkærsmosser i relation til forskellige niveauer af næringsstoff...

  5. Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kouwenberg, R.; Markiewicz, A.; Verhoeks, R.; Zwinkels, R.C.J.

    2017-01-01

    Exchange rate models with uncertain and incomplete information predict that investors focus on a small set of fundamentals that changes frequently over time. We design a model selection rule that captures the current set of fundamentals that best predicts the exchange rate. Out-of-sample tests show

  6. Modeling inflation rates and exchange rates in Ghana: application of multivariate GARCH models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel Nn; Ngoh, Delali D; Doku-Amponsah, Kwabena; Ofori-Boateng, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly weighted depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar for the period is 20.4%. There was evidence that, the fact that inflation rate was stable, does not mean that exchange rates and interest rates are expected to be stable. Rather, when the cedi performs well on the forex, inflation rates and interest rates react positively and become stable in the long run. The BEKK model is robust to modelling and forecasting volatility of inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The DCC model is robust to model the conditional and unconditional correlation among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The BEKK model, which forecasted high exchange rate volatility for the year 2014, is very robust for modelling the exchange rates in Ghana. The mean equation of the DCC model is also robust to forecast inflation rates in Ghana.

  7. Multistate cohort models with proportional transfer rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoen, Robert; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir

    2006-01-01

    of transfer rates. The two living state case and hierarchical multistate models with any number of living states are analyzed in detail. Applying our approach to 1997 U.S. fertility data, we find that observed rates of parity progression are roughly proportional over age. Our proportional transfer rate...... approach provides trajectories by parity state and facilitates analyses of the implications of changes in parity rate levels and patterns. More women complete childbearing at parity 2 than at any other parity, and parity 2 would be the modal parity in models with total fertility rates (TFRs) of 1.40 to 2......We present a new, broadly applicable approach to summarizing the behavior of a cohort as it moves through a variety of statuses (or states). The approach is based on the assumption that all rates of transfer maintain a constant ratio to one another over age. We present closed-form expressions...

  8. Modeling Real Exchange Rate Persistence in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Salazar

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The long and persistent swings in the real exchange rate have for a long time puzzled economists. Recent models built on imperfect knowledge economics seem to provide a theoretical explanation for this persistence. Empirical results, based on a cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR model, provide evidence of error-increasing behavior in prices and interest rates, which is consistent with the persistence observed in the data. The movements in the real exchange rate are compensated by movements in the interest rate spread, which restores the equilibrium in the product market when the real exchange rate moves away from its long-run benchmark value. Fluctuations in the copper price also explain the deviations of the real exchange rate from its long-run equilibrium value.

  9. Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.R.P. Kouwenberg (Roy); A. Markiewicz (Agnieszka); R. Verhoeks (Ralph); R.C.J. Zwinkels (Remco)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a theoretical framework of exchange rate behavior where investors focus on a subset of economic fundamentals. We find that any adjustment in the set of predictors used by investors leads to changes in the relation between the exchange rate and fundamentals. We test the

  10. Modelling dense relational data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue; Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard

    2012-01-01

    they are not naturally suited for kernel K-means. We propose a generative Bayesian model for dense matrices which generalize kernel K-means to consider off-diagonal interactions in matrices of interactions, and demonstrate its ability to detect structure on both artificial data and two real data sets....

  11. Models as Relational Categories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokkonen, Tommi

    2017-01-01

    Model-based learning (MBL) has an established position within science education. It has been found to enhance conceptual understanding and provide a way for engaging students in authentic scientific activity. Despite ample research, few studies have examined the cognitive processes regarding learning scientific concepts within MBL. On the other…

  12. Affinity functions for modeling glass dissolution rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bourcier, W.L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1997-07-01

    Glass dissolution rates decrease dramatically as glass approach ''saturation'' with respect to the leachate solution. Most repository sites are chosen where water fluxes are minimal, and therefore the waste glass is most likely to dissolve under conditions close to ''saturation''. The key term in the rate expression used to predict glass dissolution rates close to ''saturation'' is the affinity term, which accounts for saturation effects on dissolution rates. Interpretations of recent experimental data on the dissolution behaviour of silicate glasses and silicate minerals indicate the following: 1) simple affinity control does not explain the observed dissolution rate for silicate minerals or glasses; 2) dissolution rates can be significantly modified by dissolved cations even under conditions far from saturation where the affinity term is near unity; 3) the effects of dissolved species such as Al and Si on the dissolution rate vary with pH, temperature, and saturation state; and 4) as temperature is increased, the effect of both pH and temperature on glass and mineral dissolution rates decrease, which strongly suggests a switch in rate control from surface reaction-based to diffusion control. Borosilicate glass dissolution models need to be upgraded to account for these recent experimental observations. (A.C.)

  13. Different rates of DNA replication at early versus late S-phase sections: multiscale modeling of stochastic events related to DNA content/EdU (5-ethynyl-2'deoxyuridine) incorporation distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Biao; Zhao, Hong; Rybak, Paulina; Dobrucki, Jurek W; Darzynkiewicz, Zbigniew; Kimmel, Marek

    2014-09-01

    Mathematical modeling allows relating molecular events to single-cell characteristics assessed by multiparameter cytometry. In the present study we labeled newly synthesized DNA in A549 human lung carcinoma cells with 15-120 min pulses of EdU. All DNA was stained with DAPI and cellular fluorescence was measured by laser scanning cytometry. The frequency of cells in the ascending (left) side of the "horseshoe"-shaped EdU/DAPI bivariate distributions reports the rate of DNA replication at the time of entrance to S phase while their frequency in the descending (right) side is a marker of DNA replication rate at the time of transition from S to G2 phase. To understand the connection between molecular-scale events and scatterplot asymmetry, we developed a multiscale stochastic model, which simulates DNA replication and cell cycle progression of individual cells and produces in silico EdU/DAPI scatterplots. For each S-phase cell the time points at which replication origins are fired are modeled by a non-homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP). Shifted gamma distributions are assumed for durations of cell cycle phases (G1, S and G2 M), Depending on the rate of DNA synthesis being an increasing or decreasing function, simulated EdU/DAPI bivariate graphs show predominance of cells in left (early-S) or right (late-S) side of the horseshoe distribution. Assuming NHPP rate estimated from independent experiments, simulated EdU/DAPI graphs are nearly indistinguishable from those experimentally observed. This finding proves consistency between the S-phase DNA-replication rate based on molecular-scale analyses, and cell population kinetics ascertained from EdU/DAPI scatterplots and demonstrates that DNA replication rate at entrance to S is relatively slow compared with its rather abrupt termination during S to G2 transition. Our approach opens a possibility of similar modeling to study the effect of anticancer drugs on DNA replication/cell cycle progression and also to quantify other

  14. A critique of recent models for human error rate assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, G.E.

    1988-01-01

    This paper critically reviews two groups of models for assessing human error rates under accident conditions. The first group, which includes the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) handbook model and the human cognitive reliability (HCR) model, considers as fundamental the time that is available to the operators to act. The second group, which is represented by the success likelihood index methodology multiattribute utility decomposition (SLIM-MAUD) model, relies on ratings of the human actions with respect to certain qualitative factors and the subsequent derivation of error rates. These models are evaluated with respect to two criteria: the treatment of uncertainties and the internal coherence of the models. In other words, this evaluation focuses primarily on normative aspects of these models. The principal findings are as follows: (1) Both of the time-related models provide human error rates as a function of the available time for action and the prevailing conditions. However, the HCR model ignores the important issue of state-of-knowledge uncertainties, dealing exclusively with stochastic uncertainty, whereas the model presented in the NRC handbook handles both types of uncertainty. (2) SLIM-MAUD provides a highly structured approach for the derivation of human error rates under given conditions. However, the treatment of the weights and ratings in this model is internally inconsistent. (author)

  15. Decay rates of quarkonia and potential models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rai, Ajay Kumar; Pandya, J N; Vinodkumar, P C

    2005-01-01

    The decay rates of cc-bar and b-barb mesons have been studied with contributions from different correction terms. The corrections based on hard processes involved in the decays are quantitatively studied in the framework of different phenomenological potential models

  16. Leak rate models and leak detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    Leak detection may be carried out by a number of detection systems, but selection of the systems must be carefully adapted to the fluid state and the location of the leak in the reactor coolant system. Computer programs for the calculation of leak rates contain different models to take into account the fluid state before its entrance into the crack, and they have to be verified by experiments; agreement between experiments and calculations is generally not satisfactory for very small leak rates resulting from narrow cracks or from a closing bending moment

  17. The Russian Landing Rate, Central Bank’s Policy Related Rate and Intermediation Premium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chu V. Nguyen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper illustrates asymmetries in the Russian intermediation premium as measured by the spread between the commercial lending rate and the Central Bank’s policy related rate. Empirical results have shown that the Russian intermediation premium adjusts to the threshold faster when the Central Bank’s policy related rates increase relative to lending rates as opposed to when the Central Bank’s policy related rates move in the opposite direction. The findings of this paper suggest that during the period when the Russian Federation faced formidable challenges from a sharp decline in oil prices and reduced access to international capital markets due to Western sanctions, the Central Bank of Russia was not effective in utilizing countercyclical monetary policy to achieve macroeconomic objectives and commercial banks exhibited predatory pricing behavior.

  18. Gaussian Mixture Model of Heart Rate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Tommaso; Boccignone, Giuseppe; Ferraro, Mario

    2012-01-01

    Heart rate variability (HRV) is an important measure of sympathetic and parasympathetic functions of the autonomic nervous system and a key indicator of cardiovascular condition. This paper proposes a novel method to investigate HRV, namely by modelling it as a linear combination of Gaussians. Results show that three Gaussians are enough to describe the stationary statistics of heart variability and to provide a straightforward interpretation of the HRV power spectrum. Comparisons have been made also with synthetic data generated from different physiologically based models showing the plausibility of the Gaussian mixture parameters. PMID:22666386

  19. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  20. Modeling the Volatility of Exchange Rates: GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fahima Charef

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The modeling of the dynamics of the exchange rate at a long time remains a financial and economic research center. In our research we tried to study the relationship between the evolution of exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals. Our empirical study is based on a series of exchange rates for the Tunisian dinar against three currencies of major trading partners (dollar, euro, yen and fundamentals (the terms of trade, the inflation rate, the interest rate differential, of monthly data, from jan 2000 to dec-2014, for the case of the Tunisia. We have adopted models of conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH. The results indicate that there is a partial relationship between the evolution of the Tunisian dinar exchange rates and macroeconomic variables.

  1. Modelling of rate effects at multiple scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, R.R.; Simone, A.; Sluys, L. J.

    2008-01-01

    , the length scale in the meso-model and the macro-model can be coupled. In this fashion, a bridging of length scales can be established. A computational analysis of  a Split Hopkinson bar test at medium and high impact load is carried out at macro-scale and meso-scale including information from  the micro-scale.......At the macro- and meso-scales a rate dependent constitutive model is used in which visco-elasticity is coupled to visco-plasticity and damage. A viscous length scale effect is introduced to control the size of the fracture process zone. By comparison of the widths of the fracture process zone...

  2. Death Rates in the Calorie Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Machay

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Calorie model unifies the Classical demand and the supply in the food market. Hence, solves the major problem of Classical stationary state. It is, hence, formalization of the Classical theory of population. The model does not reflect the imperfections of reality mentioned by Malthus himself. It is the aim of this brief paper to relax some of the strong assumptions of the Calorie model to make it more realistic. As the results show the political economists were correct. The death resulting from malnutrition can occur way sooner than the stationary state itself. Moreover, progressive and retrograde movements can be easily described by the death rate derived in the paper. JEL Classification: J11, Q11, Q15, Q21, Y90.

  3. Self-rated health and sickness-related absence: the modifying role of civic participation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lancee, B.; ter Hoeven, C.L.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, we examined civic participation as an effect modifier between self-rated health and absence from work. Building on the theoretical framework of social exchange, we use German data to test a conceptual model relating self-rated health to sickness-related absence, as well as the

  4. Relating business modelling and enterprise architecture

    OpenAIRE

    Meertens, Lucas Onno

    2013-01-01

    This thesis proposes a methodology for creating business models, evaluating them, and relating them to enterprise architecture. The methodology consists of several steps, leading from an organization’s current situation to a target situation, via business models and enterprise architecture. Currently, increasing amounts of businesses rely on IT systems to do their business. However, success rates of IT implementations projects are low. Difficulties exist in aligning existing IT systems with b...

  5. CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, James H., Jr.

    2012-01-01

    Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and

  6. Annonaceae substitution rates: a codon model perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Willem Chatrou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Annonaceae includes cultivated species of economic interest and represents an important source of information for better understanding the evolution of tropical rainforests. In phylogenetic analyses of DNA sequence data that are used to address evolutionary questions, it is imperative to use appropriate statistical models. Annonaceae are cases in point: Two sister clades, the subfamilies Annonoideae and Malmeoideae, contain the majority of Annonaceae species diversity. The Annonoideae generally show a greater degree of sequence divergence compared to the Malmeoideae, resulting in stark differences in branch lengths in phylogenetic trees. Uncertainty in how to interpret and analyse these differences has led to inconsistent results when estimating the ages of clades in Annonaceae using molecular dating techniques. We ask whether these differences may be attributed to inappropriate modelling assumptions in the phylogenetic analyses. Specifically, we test for (clade-specific differences in rates of non-synonymous and synonymous substitutions. A high ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions may lead to similarity of DNA sequences due to convergence instead of common ancestry, and as a result confound phylogenetic analyses. We use a dataset of three chloroplast genes (rbcL, matK, ndhF for 129 species representative of the family. We find that differences in branch lengths between major clades are not attributable to different rates of non-synonymous and synonymous substitutions. The differences in evolutionary rate between the major clades of Annonaceae pose a challenge for current molecular dating techniques that should be seen as a warning for the interpretation of such results in other organisms.

  7. A model of clearance rate regulation in mussels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fréchette, Marcel

    2012-10-01

    Clearance rate regulation has been modelled as an instantaneous response to food availability, independent of the internal state of the animals. This view is incompatible with latent effects during ontogeny and phenotypic flexibility in clearance rate. Internal-state regulation of clearance rate is required to account for these patterns. Here I develop a model of internal-state based regulation of clearance rate. External factors such as suspended sediments are included in the model. To assess the relative merits of instantaneous regulation and internal-state regulation, I modelled blue mussel clearance rate and growth using a DEB model. In the usual standard feeding module, feeding is governed by a Holling's Type II response to food concentration. In the internal-state feeding module, gill ciliary activity and thus clearance rate are driven by internal reserve level. Factors such as suspended sediments were not included in the simulations. The two feeding modules were compared on the basis of their ability to capture the impact of latent effects, of environmental heterogeneity in food abundance and of physiological flexibility on clearance rate and individual growth. The Holling feeding module was unable to capture the effect of any of these sources of variability. In contrast, the internal-state feeding module did so without any modification or ad hoc calibration. Latent effects, however, appeared transient. With simple annual variability in temperature and food concentration, the relationship between clearance rate and food availability predicted by the internal-state feeding module was quite similar to that observed in Norwegian fjords. I conclude that in contrast with the usual Holling feeding module, internal-state regulation of clearance rate is consistent with well-documented growth and clearance rate patterns.

  8. Target oriented relational model finding

    OpenAIRE

    Cunha, Alcino; Macedo, Nuno Filipe Moreira; Guimarães, Tiago Miguel Moreira

    2014-01-01

    Lecture Notes in Computer Science 8411, 2014 Model finders are becoming useful in many software engineering problems. Kodkod is one of the most popular, due to its support for relational logic (a combination of first order logic with relational algebra operators and transitive closure), allowing a simpler specification of constraints, and support for partial instances, allowing the specification of a priori (exact, but potentially partial) knowledge about a problem's solution. However, in ...

  9. Lower alert rates by clustering of related drug interaction alerts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heringa, M.; Siderius, Hidde; Schreudering, A.; De Smet, Peter Agm; Bouvy, M.L.

    OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate to what extent clustering of related drug interaction alerts (drug-drug and drug-disease interaction alerts) would decrease the alert rate in clinical decision support systems (CDSSs). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of drug interaction alerts

  10. On rate-state and Coulomb failure models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomberg, J.; Beeler, N.; Blanpied, M.

    2000-01-01

    We examine the predictions of Coulomb failure stress and rate-state frictional models. We study the change in failure time (clock advance) Δt due to stress step perturbations (i.e., coseismic static stress increases) added to "background" stressing at a constant rate (i.e., tectonic loading) at time t0. The predictability of Δt implies a predictable change in seismicity rate r(t)/r0, testable using earthquake catalogs, where r0 is the constant rate resulting from tectonic stressing. Models of r(t)/r0, consistent with general properties of aftershock sequences, must predict an Omori law seismicity decay rate, a sequence duration that is less than a few percent of the mainshock cycle time and a return directly to the background rate. A Coulomb model requires that a fault remains locked during loading, that failure occur instantaneously, and that Δt is independent of t0. These characteristics imply an instantaneous infinite seismicity rate increase of zero duration. Numerical calculations of r(t)/r0 for different state evolution laws show that aftershocks occur on faults extremely close to failure at the mainshock origin time, that these faults must be "Coulomb-like," and that the slip evolution law can be precluded. Real aftershock population characteristics also may constrain rate-state constitutive parameters; a may be lower than laboratory values, the stiffness may be high, and/or normal stress may be lower than lithostatic. We also compare Coulomb and rate-state models theoretically. Rate-state model fault behavior becomes more Coulomb-like as constitutive parameter a decreases relative to parameter b. This is because the slip initially decelerates, representing an initial healing of fault contacts. The deceleration is more pronounced for smaller a, more closely simulating a locked fault. Even when the rate-state Δt has Coulomb characteristics, its magnitude may differ by some constant dependent on b. In this case, a rate-state model behaves like a modified

  11. Cosmological models in general relativity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Cosmological models in general relativity. B B PAUL. Department of Physics, Nowgong College, Nagaon, Assam, India. MS received 4 October 2002; revised 6 March 2003; accepted 21 May 2003. Abstract. LRS Bianchi type-I space-time filled with perfect fluid is considered here with deceler- ation parameter as variable.

  12. ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.

  13. Unemployment Rate, Smoking in China: Are They Related?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qing; Shen, Jay J; Cochran, Chris

    2016-01-08

    Studies on the relationship between unemployment rate and smoking have yielded mixed results. The issue in China has not been studied. This study aims to examine the influence of unemployment rate on smoking in China. Logit model and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation were used to estimate the effects. Estimations were done for 4585 individual over 45 using data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study conducted in Zhejiang and Gansu provinces in 2008 and 2012. A percent increase in the unemployment rate resulted in the increase in the likelihood of smoking by a combined 9.1 percent for those who smoked including a 2.9% increase for those who smoked 1-10 cigarettes per day; a 2.8% increase for those who smoked 11-20 cigarettes per day; and a 3.4% increase for those who smoked 20 cigarettes or more per day. The effects were stronger for those who were employed. Non-drinkers were more likely to engage in smoking with increased unemployment rate. 2SLS estimation revealed the same association. The unemployment rate was positively associated with smoking behavior. Smoking control and intervention strategies should focus on both the individual's characteristics and the physical environment in which unemployment rate tend to rise.

  14. Epistemology and Rosen's Modeling Relation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dress, W.B.

    1999-01-01

    Rosen's modeling relation is embedded in Popper's three worlds to provide an heuristic tool for model building and a guide for thinking about complex systems. The utility of this construct is demonstrated by suggesting a solution to the problem of pseudo science and a resolution of the famous Bohr-Einstein debates. A theory of bizarre systems is presented by an analogy with entangled particles of quantum mechanics. This theory underscores the poverty of present-day computational systems (e.g., computers) for creating complex and bizarre entities by distinguishing between mechanism and organism

  15. Modeling biology using relational databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peitzsch, Robert M

    2003-02-01

    There are several different methodologies that can be used for designing a database schema; no one is the best for all occasions. This unit demonstrates two different techniques for designing relational tables and discusses when each should be used. These two techniques presented are (1) traditional Entity-Relationship (E-R) modeling and (2) a hybrid method that combines aspects of data warehousing and E-R modeling. The method of choice depends on (1) how well the information and all its inherent relationships are understood, (2) what types of questions will be asked, (3) how many different types of data will be included, and (4) how much data exists.

  16. Simple relations between mean passage times and Kramers' stationary rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boilley, David; Jurado, Beatriz; Schmitt, Christelle

    2004-01-01

    The classical problem of the escape time of a metastable potential well in a thermal environment is generally studied by various quantities like Kramers' stationary escape rate, mean first passage time, nonlinear relaxation time, or mean last passage time. In addition, numerical simulations lead to the definition of other quantities as the long-time limit escape rate and the transient time. In this paper, we propose some simple analytical relations between all these quantities. In particular, we point out the hypothesis used to evaluate these various times in order to clarify their comparison and applicability, and show how average times include the transient time and the long-time limit of the escape rate

  17. Persuasion, Politeness and Relational Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerzy Świątek

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Politeness Theory, just like Grice’s Cooperative Principle, points out that pragmatic analysis of language behaviour has to be grounded in extra-linguistic facts of social (or even biological nature. Additionally, despite the slightly misleading label, Politeness Theory provides a sound methodology to explain some persuasive as well as politeness phenomena. In the same vein, the so called Relational Model Theory provides another theoretical framework for the explanation of persuasive phenomena and persuasive language. Both Relational Model Theory and Politeness Theory show that persuasion is also to be understood as a rational response to not-so-rational social and biological needs. In the article an attempt is made to compare the two theories focusing on their explanatory power in reference to language choices aiming at enhancing the persuasive potential of a language message.

  18. Persuasion, Politeness and Relational Models

    OpenAIRE

    Jerzy Świątek

    2017-01-01

    Politeness Theory, just like Grice’s Cooperative Principle, points out that pragmatic analysis of language behaviour has to be grounded in extra-linguistic facts of social (or even biological) nature. Additionally, despite the slightly misleading label, Politeness Theory provides a sound methodology to explain some persuasive as well as politeness phenomena. In the same vein, the so called Relational Model Theory provides another theoretical framework for the explanation of persuasive phenome...

  19. Engineering aspects of rate-related processes in food manufacturing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, Shuji

    2015-01-01

    Many rate-related phenomena occur in food manufacturing processes. This review addresses four of them, all of which are topics that the author has studied in order to design food manufacturing processes that are favorable from the standpoint of food engineering. They include chromatographic separation through continuous separation with a simulated moving adsorber, lipid oxidation kinetics in emulsions and microencapsulated systems, kinetic analysis and extraction in subcritical water, and water migration in pasta.

  20. Modeling Equity for Alternative Water Rate Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, R.; Mjelde, J.

    2011-12-01

    The rising popularity of increasing block rates for urban water runs counter to mainstream economic recommendations, yet decision makers in rate design forums are attracted to the notion of higher prices for larger users. Among economists, it is widely appreciated that uniform rates have stronger efficiency properties than increasing block rates, especially when volumetric prices incorporate intrinsic water value. Yet, except for regions where water market purchases have forced urban authorities to include water value in water rates, economic arguments have weakly penetrated policy. In this presentation, recent evidence will be reviewed regarding long term trends in urban rate structures while observing economic principles pertaining to these choices. The main objective is to investigate the equity of increasing block rates as contrasted to uniform rates for a representative city. Using data from four Texas cities, household water demand is established as a function of marginal price, income, weather, number of residents, and property characteristics. Two alternative rate proposals are designed on the basis of recent experiences for both water and wastewater rates. After specifying a reasonable number (~200) of diverse households populating the city and parameterizing each household's characteristics, every household's consumption selections are simulated for twelve months. This procedure is repeated for both rate systems. Monthly water and wastewater bills are also computed for each household. Most importantly, while balancing the budget of the city utility we compute the effect of switching rate structures on the welfares of households of differing types. Some of the empirical findings are as follows. Under conditions of absent water scarcity, households of opposing characters such as low versus high income do not have strong preferences regarding rate structure selection. This changes as water scarcity rises and as water's opportunity costs are allowed to

  1. Exchange Rate – Relative Price Nonlinear Cointegration Relationship in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Venus Khim-Sen Liew; Chee-Keong Choong; Evan Lau; Kian-Ping Lim

    2005-01-01

    The finding of exchange rate–relative price nonlinear cointegration relationship in Malaysia, among others, suggests that nonlinear Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) equilibrium may be regarded as reference point in judging the short run misalignment of the Ringgit currency and thereby deducing effective policy actions. Moreover, economists who wish to extend the simple PPP exchange rate model into the more complicated monetary exchange models may do so comfortably, at least in the text of Mala...

  2. Sovereign ratings in the post-crisis world : an analysis of actual, shadow and relative risk ratings

    OpenAIRE

    Basu, Kaushik; De, Supriyo; Ratha, Dilip; Timmer, Hans

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes the evolution of sovereign credit ratings in the wake of the global financial crisis by studying changes in actual, shadow, and relative ratings between 2008 and 2012. For countries that do not have a rating from the major rating agencies, shadow ratings are estimated as a function of macroeconomic, structural, and governance variables. The shadow rating exercise confir...

  3. Heart rate variability in sleep-related migraine without aura.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vollono, Catello; Gnoni, Valentina; Testani, Elisa; Dittoni, Serena; Losurdo, Anna; Colicchio, Salvatore; Di Blasi, Chiara; Mazza, Salvatore; Farina, Benedetto; Della Marca, Giacomo

    2013-07-15

    This is an observational study aimed to investigate the activity of autonomic nervous system during sleep in patients with sleep-related migraine. Eight consecutive migraineurs without aura were enrolled (6 women and 2 men), aged 30 to 62 years (mean 48.1 ± 9.3 years). Inclusion criteria were: high frequency of attacks (> 5 per month) and occurrence of more than 75% of the attacks during sleep causing an awakening. Patients were compared with a control group of 55 healthy subjects (23 men and 32 women, mean age 54.2 ± 13.0 years), and with a further control group of 8 age- and gender-matched healthy controls. Patient and controls underwent polysomnography and heart rate variability analysis. A significant reduction of the LF/HF ratio during N2 and N3 sleep stages was observed in migraineurs compared with controls. No differences in sleep macrostructure were observed; cyclic alternating pattern (CAP) time and CAP rate were lower in migraineurs than in controls. These findings indicate a peculiar modification of the autonomic balance during sleep in sleep-related migraine. The reduction of LF/HF ratio in NREM sleep was observed in controls, but it was quantitatively much more evident in migraineurs. Changes in LF/HF could be consequent to an autonomic unbalance which could manifest selectively (or alternatively become more evident) during sleep. These findings, together with the reduction in CAP rate, could be an expression of reduced arousability during sleep in patients with sleep-related migraine. The simultaneous involvement of the autonomic, arousal, and pain systems might suggest involvement of the hypothalamic pathways.

  4. The Common Factor of Bilateral U.S. Exchange Rates: What is it Related to?

    OpenAIRE

    Ponomareva, Natalia; Sheen, Jeffrey; Wang, Ben

    2015-01-01

    We identify a common factor driving a panel of fifteen monthly bilateral exchange rates against the U.S. dollar. We find this factor is closely related to U.S. nominal and real macroeconomic variables, financial market variables and commodity prices. Our results suggest this common factor is broadly related to the macroeconomic fundamentals in the Taylor rule and uncovered interest parity models. However, the set of fundamentals relevant to these models changes over time.

  5. Strain Rate Dependant Material Model for Orthotropic Metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vignjevic, Rade

    2016-01-01

    In manufacturing processes anisotropic metals are often exposed to the loading with high strain rates in the range from 10"2 s"-"1 to 10"6 s"-"1 (e.g. stamping, cold spraying and explosive forming). These types of loading often involve generation and propagation of shock waves within the material. The material behaviour under such a complex loading needs to be accurately modelled, in order to optimise the manufacturing process and achieve appropriate properties of the manufactured component. The presented research is related to development and validation of a thermodynamically consistent physically based constitutive model for metals under high rate loading. The model is capable of modelling damage, failure and formation and propagation of shock waves in anisotropic metals. The model has two main parts: the strength part which defines the material response to shear deformation and an equation of state (EOS) which defines the material response to isotropic volumetric deformation [1]. The constitutive model was implemented into the transient nonlinear finite element code DYNA3D [2] and our in house SPH code. Limited model validation was performed by simulating a number of high velocity material characterisation and validation impact tests. The new damage model was developed in the framework of configurational continuum mechanics and irreversible thermodynamics with internal state variables. The use of the multiplicative decomposition of deformation gradient makes the model applicable to arbitrary plastic and damage deformations. To account for the physical mechanisms of failure, the concept of thermally activated damage initially proposed by Tuller and Bucher [3], Klepaczko [4] was adopted as the basis for the new damage evolution model. This makes the proposed damage/failure model compatible with the Mechanical Threshold Strength (MTS) model Follansbee and Kocks [5], 1988; Chen and Gray [6] which was used to control evolution of flow stress during plastic

  6. Modeling Electric Discharges with Entropy Production Rate Principles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Christen

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Under which circumstances are variational principles based on entropy production rate useful tools for modeling steady states of electric (gas discharge systems far from equilibrium? It is first shown how various different approaches, as Steenbeck’s minimum voltage and Prigogine’s minimum entropy production rate principles are related to the maximum entropy production rate principle (MEPP. Secondly, three typical examples are discussed, which provide a certain insight in the structure of the models that are candidates for MEPP application. It is then thirdly argued that MEPP, although not being an exact physical law, may provide reasonable model parameter estimates, provided the constraints contain the relevant (nonlinear physical effects and the parameters to be determined are related to disregarded weak constraints that affect mainly global entropy production. Finally, it is additionally conjectured that a further reason for the success of MEPP in certain far from equilibrium systems might be based on a hidden linearity of the underlying kinetic equation(s.

  7. Do resident's leadership skills relate to ratings of technical skill?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gannon, Samantha J; Law, Katherine E; Ray, Rebecca D; Nathwani, Jay N; DiMarco, Shannon M; D'Angelo, Anne-Lise D; Pugh, Carla M

    2016-12-01

    This study sought to compare general surgery research residents' survey information regarding self-efficacy ratings to their observed performance during a simulated small bowel repair. Their observed performance ratings were based on their leadership skills in directing their assistant. Participants were given 15 min to perform a bowel repair using bovine intestines with standardized injuries. Operative assistants were assigned to help assist with the repair. Before the procedure, participants were asked to rate their expected skills decay, task difficulty, and confidence in addressing the small bowel injury. Interactions were coded to identify the number of instructions given by the participants to the assistant during the repair. Statistical analyses assessed the relationship between the number of directional instructions and participants' perceptions self-efficacy measures. Directional instructions were defined as any dialog by the participant who guided the assistant to perform an action. Thirty-six residents (58.3% female) participated in the study. Participants who rated lower levels of decay in their intraoperative decision-making and small bowel repair skills were noted to use their assistant more by giving more instructions. Similarly, a higher number of instructions correlated with lower perceived difficulty in selecting the correct suture, suture pattern, and completing the entire surgical task. General surgery research residents' intraoperative leadership skills showed significant correlations to their perceptions of skill decay and task difficulty during a bowel repair. Evaluating resident's directional instructions may provide an additional individualized intraoperative assessment metric. Further evaluation relating to operative performance outcomes is warranted. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Neural Networks Modelling of Municipal Real Estate Market Rent Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muczyński Andrzej

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results of research on the application of neural networks modelling of municipal real estate market rent rates. The test procedure was based on selected networks trained on the local real estate market data and transformation of the detected dependencies – through established models – to estimate the potential market rent rates of municipal premises. On this basis, the assessment of the adequacy of the actual market rent rates of municipal properties was made. Empirical research was conducted on the local real estate market of the city of Olsztyn in Poland. In order to describe the phenomenon of market rent rates formation an unidirectional three-layer network and a network of radial base was selected. Analyses showed a relatively low degree of convergence of the actual municipal rent rents with potential market rent rates. This degree was strongly varied depending on the type of business ran on the property and its’ social and economic impact. The applied research methodology and the obtained results can be used in order to rationalize municipal property management, including the activation of rental policy.

  9. Sensitivity of tropospheric heating rates to aerosols: A modeling study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanna, A.F.; Shankar, U.; Mathur, R.

    1994-01-01

    The effect of aerosols on the radiation balance is critical to the energetics of the atmosphere. Because of the relatively long residence of specific types of aerosols in the atmosphere and their complex thermal and chemical interactions, understanding their behavior is crucial for understanding global climate change. The authors used the Regional Particulate Model (RPM) to simulate aerosols in the eastern United States in order to identify the aerosol characteristics of specific rural and urban areas these characteristics include size, concentration, and vertical profile. A radiative transfer model based on an improved δ-Eddington approximation with 26 spectral intervals spanning the solar spectrum was then used to analyze the tropospheric heating rates associated with these different aerosol distributions. The authors compared heating rates forced by differences in surface albedo associated with different land-use characteristics, and found that tropospheric heating and surface cooling are sensitive to surface properties such as albedo

  10. Further Results on Dynamic Additive Hazard Rate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengcheng Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the past, the proportional and additive hazard rate models have been investigated in the works. Nanda and Das (2011 introduced and studied the dynamic proportional (reversed hazard rate model. In this paper we study the dynamic additive hazard rate model, and investigate its aging properties for different aging classes. The closure of the model under some stochastic orders has also been investigated. Some examples are also given to illustrate different aging properties and stochastic comparisons of the model.

  11. On a Corporate Bond Pricing Model with Credit Rating Migration Risksand Stochastic Interest Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Liang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we study a corporate bond-pricing model with credit rating migration and astochastic interest rate. The volatility of bond price in the model strongly depends on potential creditrating migration and stochastic change of the interest rate. This new model improves the previousexisting models in which the interest rate is considered to be a constant. The existence, uniquenessand regularity of the solution for the model are established. Moreover, some properties includingthe smoothness of the free boundary are obtained. Furthermore, some numerical computations arepresented to illustrate the theoretical results.

  12. Latency-Rate servers & Dataflow models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiggers, M.H.; Bekooij, Marco; Bekooij, Marco Jan Gerrit

    2006-01-01

    In the signal processing domain, dataflow graphs [2] [10] and their associated analysis techniques are a well-accepted modeling paradigm. The vertices of a dataflow graph represent functionality and are called actors, while the edges model which actors communicate with each other. Traditionally,

  13. MONETARY MODELS AND EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Power Party [PPP] based on the law of one price asserts that the change in the exchange rate between .... exchange in international economic transactions has made it vitally evident that the management of ... One lesson from this episode is to ...

  14. A model for predicting wear rates in tooth enamel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrero-Lopez, Oscar; Pajares, Antonia; Constantino, Paul J; Lawn, Brian R

    2014-09-01

    It is hypothesized that wear of enamel is sensitive to the presence of sharp particulates in oral fluids and masticated foods. To this end, a generic model for predicting wear rates in brittle materials is developed, with specific application to tooth enamel. Wear is assumed to result from an accumulation of elastic-plastic micro-asperity events. Integration over all such events leads to a wear rate relation analogous to Archard׳s law, but with allowance for variation in asperity angle and compliance. The coefficient K in this relation quantifies the wear severity, with an arbitrary distinction between 'mild' wear (low K) and 'severe' wear (high K). Data from the literature and in-house wear-test experiments on enamel specimens in lubricant media (water, oil) with and without sharp third-body particulates (silica, diamond) are used to validate the model. Measured wear rates can vary over several orders of magnitude, depending on contact asperity conditions, accounting for the occurrence of severe enamel removal in some human patients (bruxing). Expressions for the depth removal rate and number of cycles to wear down occlusal enamel in the low-crowned tooth forms of some mammals are derived, with tooth size and enamel thickness as key variables. The role of 'hard' versus 'soft' food diets in determining evolutionary paths in different hominin species is briefly considered. A feature of the model is that it does not require recourse to specific material removal mechanisms, although processes involving microplastic extrusion and microcrack coalescence are indicated. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  15. A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Tims (Ben); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are

  16. Universal Rate Model Selector: A Method to Quickly Find the Best-Fit Kinetic Rate Model for an Experimental Rate Profile

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-01

    k2 – k1) 3.3 Universal Kinetic Rate Platform Development Kinetic rate models range from pure chemical reactions to mass transfer...14 8. The rate model that best fits the experimental data is a first-order or homogeneous catalytic reaction ...Avrami (7), and intraparticle diffusion (6) rate equations to name a few. A single fitting algorithm (kinetic rate model ) for a reaction does not

  17. Polynomial Chaos Expansion Approach to Interest Rate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Di Persio

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE technique allows us to recover a finite second-order random variable exploiting suitable linear combinations of orthogonal polynomials which are functions of a given stochastic quantity ξ, hence acting as a kind of random basis. The PCE methodology has been developed as a mathematically rigorous Uncertainty Quantification (UQ method which aims at providing reliable numerical estimates for some uncertain physical quantities defining the dynamic of certain engineering models and their related simulations. In the present paper, we use the PCE approach in order to analyze some equity and interest rate models. In particular, we take into consideration those models which are based on, for example, the Geometric Brownian Motion, the Vasicek model, and the CIR model. We present theoretical as well as related concrete numerical approximation results considering, without loss of generality, the one-dimensional case. We also provide both an efficiency study and an accuracy study of our approach by comparing its outputs with the ones obtained adopting the Monte Carlo approach, both in its standard and its enhanced version.

  18. Mechanistic Modeling of Water Replenishment Rate of Zeer Refrigerator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. N. Nwankwojike

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A model for predicting the water replenishment rate of zeer pot refrigerator was developed in this study using mechanistic modeling approach and evaluated at Obowo, Imo State, Nigeria using six fruits, tomatoes, guava, okra, banana, orange and avocado pear. The developed model confirmed zeer pot water replenishment rate as a function of ambient temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, thermal conductivity of the pot materials and sand, density of air and water vapor, permeability coefficient of clay and heat transfer coefficient of water into air, circumferential length, height of pot, geometrical profile of the pot, heat load of the food preserved, heat flow into the device and gradient at which the pot is placed above ground level. Compared to the conventional approach of water replenishment, performance analysis results revealed 44% to 58% water economy when the zeer pot’s water was replenished based on the model’s prediction; while there was no significant difference in the shelf-life of the fruits preserved with both replenishment methods. Application of the developed water replenishment model facilitates optimal water usage in this system, thereby reducing operational cost of zeer pot refrigerator.

  19. Monetary models and exchange rate determination: The Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Monetary models and exchange rate determination: The Nigerian evidence. ... income levels and real interest rate differentials provide better forecasts of the ... partner can expect to suffer depreciation in the external value of her currency.

  20. Provider-Initiated Patient Satisfaction Reporting Yields Improved Physician Ratings Relative to Online Rating Websites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricciardi, Benjamin F; Waddell, Brad S; Nodzo, Scott R; Lange, Jeffrey; Nocon, Allina A; Amundsen, Spencer; Tarity, T David; McLawhorn, Alexander S

    2017-09-01

    Recently, providers have begun to publicly report the results of patient satisfaction surveys from their practices. However, these outcomes have never been compared with the findings of commercial online physician rating websites. The goals of the current study were to (1) compare overall patient satisfaction ratings for orthopedic surgeons derived from provider-based third-party surveys with existing commercial physician rating websites and (2) determine the association between patient ratings and provider characteristics. The authors identified 12 institutions that provided publicly available patient satisfaction outcomes derived from third-party surveys for their orthopedic surgeons as of August 2016. Orthopedic surgeons at these institutions were eligible for inclusion (N=340 surgeons). Provider characteristics were recorded from publicly available data. Four high-traffic commercial online physician rating websites were identified: Healthgrades.com, UCompareHealthCare.com, Vitals.com, and RateMDs.com. For each surgeon, overall ratings (on a scale of 1-5), total number of ratings, and percentage of negative ratings were compared between provider-initiated internal ratings and each commercial online website. Associations between baseline factors and overall physician ratings and negative ratings were assessed. Provider-initiated internal patient satisfaction ratings showed a greater number of overall patient ratings, higher overall patient satisfaction ratings, and a lower percentage of negative comments compared with commercial online physician rating websites. A greater number of years in practice had a weak association with lower internal ratings, and an academic practice setting and a location in the Northeast were protective factors for negative physician ratings. Compared with commercial online physician rating websites, provider-initiated patient satisfaction ratings of orthopedic surgeons appear to be more favorable, with greater numbers of responses

  1. A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Tims, Ben; Mahieu, Ronald

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are interpreted as the underlying currency specific components. Due to the normality of logarithmic volatilities the model can be estimated conveniently with standard Kalman filter techniques. Our resu...

  2. Crash rates analysis in China using a spatial panel model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wonmongo Lacina Soro

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The consideration of spatial externalities in traffic safety analysis is of paramount importance for the success of road safety policies. Yet, the quasi-totality of spatial dependence studies on crash rates is performed within the framework of single-equation spatial cross-sectional studies. The present study extends the spatial cross-sectional scheme to a spatial fixed-effects panel model estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The spatial units are the 31 administrative regions of mainland China over the period 2004–2013. The presence of neighborhood effects is evidenced through the Moran's I statistic. Consistent with previous studies, the analysis reveals that omitting the spatial effects in traffic safety analysis is likely to bias the estimation results. The spatial and error lags are all positive and statistically significant suggesting similarities of crash rates pattern in neighboring regions. Some other explanatory variables, such as freight traffic, the length of paved roads and the populations of age 65 and above are related to higher rates while the opposite trend is observed for the Gross Regional Product, the urban unemployment rate and passenger traffic.

  3. Flow rate-pressure drop relation for deformable shallow microfluidic channels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christov, Ivan C.; Cognet, Vincent; Shidhore, Tanmay C.; Stone, Howard A.

    2018-04-01

    Laminar flow in devices fabricated from soft materials causes deformation of the passage geometry, which affects the flow rate--pressure drop relation. For a given pressure drop, in channels with narrow rectangular cross-section, the flow rate varies as the cube of the channel height, so deformation can produce significant quantitative effects, including nonlinear dependence on the pressure drop [{Gervais, T., El-Ali, J., G\\"unther, A. \\& Jensen, K.\\ F.}\\ 2006 Flow-induced deformation of shallow microfluidic channels.\\ \\textit{Lab Chip} \\textbf{6}, 500--507]. Gervais et. al. proposed a successful model of the deformation-induced change in the flow rate by heuristically coupling a Hookean elastic response with the lubrication approximation for Stokes flow. However, their model contains a fitting parameter that must be found for each channel shape by performing an experiment. We present a perturbation approach for the flow rate--pressure drop relation in a shallow deformable microchannel using the theory of isotropic quasi-static plate bending and the Stokes equations under a lubrication approximation (specifically, the ratio of the channel's height to its width and of the channel's height to its length are both assumed small). Our result contains no free parameters and confirms Gervais et. al.'s observation that the flow rate is a quartic polynomial of the pressure drop. The derived flow rate--pressure drop relation compares favorably with experimental measurements.

  4. Interest rate modeling post-crisis challenges and approaches

    CERN Document Server

    Grbac, Zorana

    2015-01-01

    Filling a gap in the literature caused by the recent financial crisis, this book provides a treatment of the techniques needed to model and evaluate interest rate derivatives according to the new paradigm for fixed income markets. Concerning this new development, there presently exist only research articles and two books, one of them an edited volume, both being written by researchers working mainly in practice. The aim of this book is to concentrate primarily on the methodological side, thereby providing an overview of the state-of-the-art and also clarifying the link between the new models and the classical literature. The book is intended to serve as a guide for graduate students and researchers as well as practitioners interested in the paradigm change for fixed income markets. A basic knowledge of fixed income markets and related stochastic methodology is assumed as a prerequisite.

  5. Aspect-Aware Latent Factor Model: Rating Prediction with Ratings and Reviews

    OpenAIRE

    Cheng, Zhiyong; Ding, Ying; Zhu, Lei; Kankanhalli, Mohan

    2018-01-01

    Although latent factor models (e.g., matrix factorization) achieve good accuracy in rating prediction, they suffer from several problems including cold-start, non-transparency, and suboptimal recommendation for local users or items. In this paper, we employ textual review information with ratings to tackle these limitations. Firstly, we apply a proposed aspect-aware topic model (ATM) on the review text to model user preferences and item features from different aspects, and estimate the aspect...

  6. Are international fund flows related to exchange rate dynamics?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Suxiao; de Haan, Jakob; Scholtens, Bert

    2018-01-01

    Employing monthly data for 53 countries between 1996 and 2015, we investigate the relationship between international fund flows and exchange rate dynamics. We find strong co-movement between funds flows (as measured with the EPFR Global data base) and bilateral real exchange rates vis-à-vis the USD.

  7. A model for C-14 tracer evaporative rate analysis (ERA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gardner, R.P.; Verghese, K.

    1993-01-01

    A simple model has been derived and tested for the C-14 tracer evaporative rate analysis (ERA) method. It allows the accurate determination of the evaporative rate coefficient of the C-14 tracer detector in the presence of variable evaporation rates of the detector solvent and variable background counting rates. The evaporation rate coefficient should be the most fundamental parameter available in this analysis method and, therefore, its measurements with the proposed model should allow the most direct correlations to be made with the system properties of interest such as surface cleanliness. (author)

  8. Rate control management of atrial fibrillation: may a mathematical model suggest an ideal heart rate?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Anselmino

    Full Text Available Despite the routine prescription of rate control therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF, clinical evidence demonstrating a heart rate target is lacking. Aim of the present study was to run a mathematical model simulating AF episodes with a different heart rate (HR to predict hemodynamic parameters for each situation.The lumped model, representing the pumping heart together with systemic and pulmonary circuits, was run to simulate AF with HR of 50, 70, 90, 110 and 130 bpm, respectively.Left ventricular pressure increased by 57%, from 33.92±37.56 mmHg to 53.15±47.56 mmHg, and mean systemic arterial pressure increased by 27%, from 82.66±14.04 mmHg to 105.3±7.6 mmHg, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. Stroke volume (from 77.45±8.50 to 39.09±8.08 mL, ejection fraction (from 61.10±4.40 to 39.32±5.42% and stroke work (SW, from 0.88±0.04 to 0.58±0.09 J decreased by 50, 36 and 34%, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. In addition, oxygen consumption indexes (rate pressure product - RPP, tension time index per minute - TTI/min, and pressure volume area per minute - PVA/min increased from the 50 to the 130 bpm simulation, respectively, by 186% (from 5598±1939 to 15995±3219 mmHg/min, 56% (from 2094±265 to 3257±301 mmHg s/min and 102% (from 57.99±17.90 to 117.4±26.0 J/min. In fact, left ventricular efficiency (SW/PVA decreased from 80.91±2.91% at 50 bpm to 66.43±3.72% at the 130 bpm HR simulation.Awaiting compulsory direct clinical evidences, the present mathematical model suggests that lower HRs during permanent AF relates to improved hemodynamic parameters, cardiac efficiency, and lower oxygen consumption.

  9. Rate control management of atrial fibrillation: may a mathematical model suggest an ideal heart rate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anselmino, Matteo; Scarsoglio, Stefania; Camporeale, Carlo; Saglietto, Andrea; Gaita, Fiorenzo; Ridolfi, Luca

    2015-01-01

    Despite the routine prescription of rate control therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF), clinical evidence demonstrating a heart rate target is lacking. Aim of the present study was to run a mathematical model simulating AF episodes with a different heart rate (HR) to predict hemodynamic parameters for each situation. The lumped model, representing the pumping heart together with systemic and pulmonary circuits, was run to simulate AF with HR of 50, 70, 90, 110 and 130 bpm, respectively. Left ventricular pressure increased by 57%, from 33.92±37.56 mmHg to 53.15±47.56 mmHg, and mean systemic arterial pressure increased by 27%, from 82.66±14.04 mmHg to 105.3±7.6 mmHg, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. Stroke volume (from 77.45±8.50 to 39.09±8.08 mL), ejection fraction (from 61.10±4.40 to 39.32±5.42%) and stroke work (SW, from 0.88±0.04 to 0.58±0.09 J) decreased by 50, 36 and 34%, at the 50 and 130 bpm simulations, respectively. In addition, oxygen consumption indexes (rate pressure product - RPP, tension time index per minute - TTI/min, and pressure volume area per minute - PVA/min) increased from the 50 to the 130 bpm simulation, respectively, by 186% (from 5598±1939 to 15995±3219 mmHg/min), 56% (from 2094±265 to 3257±301 mmHg s/min) and 102% (from 57.99±17.90 to 117.4±26.0 J/min). In fact, left ventricular efficiency (SW/PVA) decreased from 80.91±2.91% at 50 bpm to 66.43±3.72% at the 130 bpm HR simulation. Awaiting compulsory direct clinical evidences, the present mathematical model suggests that lower HRs during permanent AF relates to improved hemodynamic parameters, cardiac efficiency, and lower oxygen consumption.

  10. Not that neglected! Base rates influence related and unrelated judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Białek, Michał

    2017-06-01

    It is claimed that people are unable (or unwilling) to incorporate prior probabilities into posterior assessments, such as their estimation of the likelihood of a person with characteristics typical of an engineer actually being an engineer given that they are drawn from a sample including a very small number of engineers. This paper shows that base rates are incorporated in classifications (Experiment 1) and, moreover, that base rates also affect unrelated judgments, such as how well a provided description of a person fits a stereotypical engineer (Experiment 2). Finally, Experiment 3 shows that individuals who make both types of assessments - though using base rates to the same extent in the former judgments - are able to decrease the extent to which they incorporate base rates in the latter judgments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Data analysis using the Binomial Failure Rate common cause model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1983-09-01

    This report explains how to use the Binomial Failure Rate (BFR) method to estimate common cause failure rates. The entire method is described, beginning with the conceptual model, and covering practical issues of data preparation, treatment of variation in the failure rates, Bayesian estimation of the quantities of interest, checking the model assumptions for lack of fit to the data, and the ultimate application of the answers

  12. Prediction of pipeline corrosion rate based on grey Markov models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yonghong; Zhang Dafa; Peng Guichu; Wang Yuemin

    2009-01-01

    Based on the model that combined by grey model and Markov model, the prediction of corrosion rate of nuclear power pipeline was studied. Works were done to improve the grey model, and the optimization unbiased grey model was obtained. This new model was used to predict the tendency of corrosion rate, and the Markov model was used to predict the residual errors. In order to improve the prediction precision, rolling operation method was used in these prediction processes. The results indicate that the improvement to the grey model is effective and the prediction precision of the new model combined by the optimization unbiased grey model and Markov model is better, and the use of rolling operation method may improve the prediction precision further. (authors)

  13. Real Exchange Rate and Productivity in an OLG Model

    OpenAIRE

    Thi Hong Thinh DOAN; Karine GENTE

    2013-01-01

    This article develops an overlapping generations model to show how demography and savings affect the relationship between real exchange rate (RER) and productivity. In high-saving (low-saving) countries and/or low-population-growth-rate countries, a rise in productivity leads to a real depreciation (appreciation) whereas the RER may appreciate or depreciate in highproduction-growth-rate. Using panel data, we conclude that a rise in productivity generally causes a real exchange rate appreciati...

  14. Exchange rate predictability and state-of-the-art models

    OpenAIRE

    Yeșin, Pınar

    2016-01-01

    This paper empirically evaluates the predictive performance of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) exchange rate assessments with respect to future exchange rate movements. The assessments of real trade-weighted exchange rates were conducted from 2006 to 2011, and were based on three state-of-the-art exchange rate models with a medium-term focus which were developed by the IMF. The empirical analysis using 26 advanced and emerging market economy currencies reveals that the "diagnosis" of ...

  15. Inverse modelling of radionuclide release rates using gamma dose rate observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamburger, Thomas; Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Stohl, Andreas; von Haustein, Christoph; Thummerer, Severin; Wallner, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Severe accidents in nuclear power plants such as the historical accident in Chernobyl 1986 or the more recent disaster in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have drastic impacts on the population and environment. Observations and dispersion modelling of the released radionuclides help to assess the regional impact of such nuclear accidents. Modelling the increase of regional radionuclide activity concentrations, which results from nuclear accidents, underlies a multiplicity of uncertainties. One of the most significant uncertainties is the estimation of the source term. That is, the time dependent quantification of the released spectrum of radionuclides during the course of the nuclear accident. The quantification of the source term may either remain uncertain (e.g. Chernobyl, Devell et al., 1995) or rely on estimates given by the operators of the nuclear power plant. Precise measurements are mostly missing due to practical limitations during the accident. The release rates of radionuclides at the accident site can be estimated using inverse modelling (Davoine and Bocquet, 2007). The accuracy of the method depends amongst others on the availability, reliability and the resolution in time and space of the used observations. Radionuclide activity concentrations are observed on a relatively sparse grid and the temporal resolution of available data may be low within the order of hours or a day. Gamma dose rates, on the other hand, are observed routinely on a much denser grid and higher temporal resolution and provide therefore a wider basis for inverse modelling (Saunier et al., 2013). We present a new inversion approach, which combines an atmospheric dispersion model and observations of radionuclide activity concentrations and gamma dose rates to obtain the source term of radionuclides. We use the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART (Stohl et al., 1998; Stohl et al., 2005) to model the atmospheric transport of the released radionuclides. The

  16. Age-Related Differences in Speech Rate Perception Do Not Necessarily Entail Age-Related Differences in Speech Rate Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffner, Christopher C.; Newman, Rochelle S.; Dilley, Laura C.; Idsardi, William J.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: A new literature has suggested that speech rate can influence the parsing of words quite strongly in speech. The purpose of this study was to investigate differences between younger adults and older adults in the use of context speech rate in word segmentation, given that older adults perceive timing information differently from younger…

  17. Seasonal variations of indoor microbial exposures and their relation to temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel, Mika; Bekö, Gabriel; Timm, Michael; Gustavsen, Sine; Hansen, Erik Wind; Madsen, Anne Mette

    2012-12-01

    Indoor microbial exposure has been related to adverse pulmonary health effects. Exposure assessment is not standardized, and various factors may affect the measured exposure. The aim of this study was to investigate the seasonal variation of selected microbial exposures and their associations with temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates in Danish homes. Airborne inhalable dust was sampled in five Danish homes throughout the four seasons of 1 year (indoors, n = 127; outdoors, n = 37). Measurements included culturable fungi and bacteria, endotoxin, N-acetyl-beta-d-glucosaminidase, total inflammatory potential, particles (0.75 to 15 μm), temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates. Significant seasonal variation was found for all indoor microbial exposures, excluding endotoxin. Indoor fungi peaked in summer (median, 235 CFU/m(3)) and were lowest in winter (median, 26 CFU/m(3)). Indoor bacteria peaked in spring (median, 2,165 CFU/m(3)) and were lowest in summer (median, 240 CFU/m(3)). Concentrations of fungi were predominately higher outdoors than indoors, whereas bacteria, endotoxin, and inhalable dust concentrations were highest indoors. Bacteria and endotoxin correlated with the mass of inhalable dust and number of particles. Temperature and air exchange rates were positively associated with fungi and N-acetyl-beta-d-glucosaminidase and negatively with bacteria and the total inflammatory potential. Although temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates were significantly associated with several indoor microbial exposures, they could not fully explain the observed seasonal variations when tested in a mixed statistical model. In conclusion, the season significantly affects indoor microbial exposures, which are influenced by temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates.

  18. Modelling hourly rates of evaporation from small lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. Granger

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results of a field study of open water evaporation carried out on three small lakes in Western and Northern Canada. In this case small lakes are defined as those for which the temperature above the water surface is governed by the upwind land surface conditions; that is, a continuous boundary layer exists over the lake, and large-scale atmospheric effects such as entrainment do not come into play. Lake evaporation was measured directly using eddy covariance equipment; profiles of wind speed, air temperature and humidity were also obtained over the water surfaces. Observations were made as well over the upwind land surface.

    The major factors controlling open water evaporation were examined. The study showed that for time periods shorter than daily, the open water evaporation bears no relationship to the net radiation; the wind speed is the most significant factor governing the evaporation rates, followed by the land-water temperature contrast and the land-water vapour pressure contrast. The effect of the stability on the wind field was demonstrated; relationships were developed relating the land-water wind speed contrast to the land-water temperature contrast. The open water period can be separated into two distinct evaporative regimes: the warming period in the Spring, when the land is warmer than the water, the turbulent fluxes over water are suppressed; and the cooling period, when the water is warmer than the land, the turbulent fluxes over water are enhanced.

    Relationships were developed between the hourly rates of lake evaporation and the following significant variables and parameters (wind speed, land-lake temperature and humidity contrasts, and the downwind distance from shore. The result is a relatively simple versatile model for estimating the hourly lake evaporation rates. The model was tested using two independent data sets. Results show that the modelled evaporation follows the observed values

  19. Martingale Regressions for a Continuous Time Model of Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Zi-Yi

    2017-01-01

    One of the daunting problems in international finance is the weak explanatory power of existing theories of the nominal exchange rates, the so-called “foreign exchange rate determination puzzle”. We propose a continuous-time model to study the impact of order flow on foreign exchange rates. The model is estimated by a newly developed econometric tool based on a time-change sampling from calendar to volatility time. The estimation results indicate that the effect of order flow on exchange rate...

  20. On the Relation between Tax Rates and Evasion in a Multi-period Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Jordi Caball?Author-Email:; Judith Panad?

    2001-01-01

    We extend the basic tax evasion model to a multi-period economy exhibiting sustained growth. When individuals conceal part of their true income from the tax authority, they face the risk of being audited and hence of paying the corresponding fine. Both taxes and fines determine individual saving and the rate of capital accumulation. In this context we show that the sign of the relation between the level of the tax rate and the amount of evaded income is the same as that obtained in static set...

  1. On the relation between tax rates and evasion in a multi-period economy

    OpenAIRE

    Caballé, Jordi

    2006-01-01

    We extend the basic tax evasion model to a multi-period economy exhibiting sustained growth. When individuals conceal part of their true income from the tax authority, they face the risk of being audited and hence of paying the corresponding fine. Both taxes and fines determine individual saving and the rate of capital accumulation. In this context we show that the sign of the relation between the level of the tax rate and the amount of evaded income is the same as that obtained in static set...

  2. EXCHANGE-RATES FORECASTING: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES AND ARIMA MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezsi Eva

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rates forecasting is, and has been a challenging task in finance. Statistical and econometrical models are widely used in analysis and forecasting of foreign exchange rates. This paper investigates the behavior of daily exchange rates of the Romanian Leu against the Euro, United States Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Chinese Renminbi and the Russian Ruble. Smoothing techniques are generated and compared with each other. These models include the Simple Exponential Smoothing technique, as the Double Exponential Smoothing technique, the Simple Holt-Winters, the Additive Holt-Winters, namely the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model.

  3. A relation to describe rate-dependent material failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voight, B

    1989-01-13

    The simple relation OmegaOmega-alpha = 0, where Omega is a measurable quantity such as strain and A and alpha are empirical constants, describes the behavior of materials in terminal stages of failure under conditions of approximately constant stress and temperature. Applicable to metals and alloys, ice, concrete, polymers, rock, and soil, the relation may be extended to conditions of variable and multiaxial stress and may be used to predict time to failure.

  4. Relative rate study of the kinetic isotope effect in the 13CH3D + Cl reaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joelsson, Lars Magnus Torvald; Forecast, Roslyn; Schmidt, Johan Albrecht

    2014-01-01

    The 13CH3D/12CH4kinetic isotope effect, α13CH3D, of CH4 + Cl is determined for the first time, using the relative rate technique and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. α13CH3D is found to be 1.60 ± 0.04. In addition, a quantum chemistry/transition state theory model with tunneling...

  5. STOCHASTIC CHARACTERISTICS AND MODELING OF RELATIVE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Test

    Results are highly accurate and promising for all models based on Lewis' criteria. ... hydrological cycle. Future increases in ... STOCHASTIC CHARACTERISTICS AND MODELING OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF OGUN BASIN, NIGERIA. 71 ...

  6. Relational models for knowledge sharing behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, N.I.; Berends, J.J.; Baalen, P.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we explore the relational dimension of knowledge sharing behavior by proposing a comprehensive theoretical framework for studying knowledge sharing in organizations. This theoretical framework originates from (Fiske, 1991) and (Fiske, 1992) Relational Models Theory (RMT). The RMT

  7. Relative biological effectiveness of 125I seeds for low-dose-rate irradiation of PANC-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jidong; Wang Junjie; Zhuang Hongqing; Liao Anyan; Zhao Yong

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the relative biological effectiveness(RBE) of National Model 6711 125 I seeds and the response patterns of PANC-1 exposed to 125 I seeds irradiation. Methods: PANC-1 cells in exponential growth were irradiated at initial dose rate of 2.59 cGy/h in vitro and exposed to 1, 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 Gy. Meanwhile, the other part of cells were exposed to the same doses by 60 Co at dose rate of 2.21 Gy/min. After irradiation, the cells were stained by trypan blue to measure the cellular mortality rate and to compare the changes along with plating times of 12, 24, 48 and 72 h after 4 Gy. The colonies were counted to obtain the plating efficiencies by colony-forming assay and the cell surviving faction was calculated to plot cell survival curves, and RBE of 125 I seeds relative to 60 Co was determined. Results: The cell death rate for continuous low- dose-rate (LDR) irradiation by 125 I seeds was greater than 60 Co at the same doses above or equal to 4 Gy. After 4 Gy irradiation, the cellular mortality rates were increased with times. The difference was significant between 125 I seeds and 60 Co. The survival fractions of 125 I were lower than those of 60 Co, and the RBE of 125 I relative to 60 Co was determined to be 1.45. Conclusion: The cell-killing effects for continuous low-dose-rate (LDR) irradiation by 125 I seeds are greater than acute high-dose-rate of 60 Co. (authors)

  8. Event rate and event-related potentials in ADHD

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiersema, R; van der Meere, J; Roeyers, H; Van Coster, R; Baeyens, D

    Background: It has been repeatedly found that performance of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is more impaired when a long inter-stimulus interval (ISI) is used than when a short ISI is used. According to the cognitive-energetic model, this may reflect difficulty in

  9. Can producer currency pricing models generate volatile real exchange rates?

    OpenAIRE

    Povoledo, L.

    2012-01-01

    If the elasticities of substitution between traded and nontraded and between Home and Foreign traded goods are sufficiently low, then the real exchange rate generated by a model with full producer currency pricing is as volatile as in the data.

  10. Improved air ventilation rate estimation based on a statistical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brabec, M.; Jilek, K.

    2004-01-01

    A new approach to air ventilation rate estimation from CO measurement data is presented. The approach is based on a state-space dynamic statistical model, allowing for quick and efficient estimation. Underlying computations are based on Kalman filtering, whose practical software implementation is rather easy. The key property is the flexibility of the model, allowing various artificial regimens of CO level manipulation to be treated. The model is semi-parametric in nature and can efficiently handle time-varying ventilation rate. This is a major advantage, compared to some of the methods which are currently in practical use. After a formal introduction of the statistical model, its performance is demonstrated on real data from routine measurements. It is shown how the approach can be utilized in a more complex situation of major practical relevance, when time-varying air ventilation rate and radon entry rate are to be estimated simultaneously from concurrent radon and CO measurements

  11. Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility by Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Munazza Jabeen; Saud Ahmad Khan

    2014-01-01

    What drives volatility in foreign exchange market in Pakistan? This paper undertakes an analysis of modelling exchange rate volatility in Pakistan by potential macroeconomic fundamentals well-known in the economic literature. For this, monthly data on Pak Rupee exchange rates in the terms of major currencies (US Dollar, British Pound, Canadian Dollar and Japanese Yen) and macroeconomics fundamentals is taken from April, 1982 to November, 2011. The results show thatthe PKR-USD exchange rate vo...

  12. Growth rate in the dynamical dark energy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avsajanishvili, Olga; Arkhipova, Natalia A.; Samushia, Lado; Kahniashvili, Tina

    2014-01-01

    Dark energy models with a slowly rolling cosmological scalar field provide a popular alternative to the standard, time-independent cosmological constant model. We study the simultaneous evolution of background expansion and growth in the scalar field model with the Ratra-Peebles self-interaction potential. We use recent measurements of the linear growth rate and the baryon acoustic oscillation peak positions to constrain the model parameter α that describes the steepness of the scalar field potential. (orig.)

  13. Growth rate in the dynamical dark energy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avsajanishvili, Olga; Arkhipova, Natalia A; Samushia, Lado; Kahniashvili, Tina

    Dark energy models with a slowly rolling cosmological scalar field provide a popular alternative to the standard, time-independent cosmological constant model. We study the simultaneous evolution of background expansion and growth in the scalar field model with the Ratra-Peebles self-interaction potential. We use recent measurements of the linear growth rate and the baryon acoustic oscillation peak positions to constrain the model parameter [Formula: see text] that describes the steepness of the scalar field potential.

  14. The relations between personality traits and psychopathy as measured by ratings and self-report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kujačić Daliborka

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to examine the relations between psychopathy - as assessed by ratings (PCL-R and by self-report (SRP3 - on one side, and The Five-Factor personality Model - expanded to include the traits Amorality and Disintegration - on the other. Both methods examined four traits of psychopathy: interpersonal, affective, lifestyle and antisocial characteristics. Data were collected on a sample of 112 male convicts. The results show the absence of congruence between the two methods - self-report and rating - in case of interpersonal and affective psychopathic dispositions. This incongruence is also reflected in their relations with personality traits. The self-report measures and the ratings of Lifestyle and Antisocial tendencies are related to amorality, aggressiveness, schizotypy, Neuroticism and impulsivity. However, the ratings of affective and interpersonal style are related to the integrated, organized, and emotionally stable aspects of personality. The results are interpreted in the light of differences between the methods of assessment and in the light of the essential characteristics of the psychopathic phenomena.

  15. Analysis of sensory ratings data with cumulative link models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Rune Haubo Bojesen; Brockhoff, Per B.

    2013-01-01

    Examples of categorical rating scales include discrete preference, liking and hedonic rating scales. Data obtained on these scales are often analyzed with normal linear regression methods or with omnibus Pearson chi2 tests. In this paper we propose to use cumulative link models that allow for reg...

  16. Rate-control algorithms testing by using video source model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belyaev, Evgeny; Turlikov, Andrey; Ukhanova, Anna

    2008-01-01

    In this paper the method of rate control algorithms testing by the use of video source model is suggested. The proposed method allows to significantly improve algorithms testing over the big test set.......In this paper the method of rate control algorithms testing by the use of video source model is suggested. The proposed method allows to significantly improve algorithms testing over the big test set....

  17. A MODEL OF RATING FOR BANKS IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    POPA ANAMARIA

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract.In the paper the authors present a model of rating for the banking system. Thus we took into account the records of 11 banks in Romania, based on annual financial reports. The model classified the banks in seven categories according with notes used by Standard Poor’s and Moody’s rating Agencies.

  18. A nonparametric mixture model for cure rate estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Y; Dear, K B

    2000-03-01

    Nonparametric methods have attracted less attention than their parametric counterparts for cure rate analysis. In this paper, we study a general nonparametric mixture model. The proportional hazards assumption is employed in modeling the effect of covariates on the failure time of patients who are not cured. The EM algorithm, the marginal likelihood approach, and multiple imputations are employed to estimate parameters of interest in the model. This model extends models and improves estimation methods proposed by other researchers. It also extends Cox's proportional hazards regression model by allowing a proportion of event-free patients and investigating covariate effects on that proportion. The model and its estimation method are investigated by simulations. An application to breast cancer data, including comparisons with previous analyses using a parametric model and an existing nonparametric model by other researchers, confirms the conclusions from the parametric model but not those from the existing nonparametric model.

  19. Oracle posterior rates in the White Noise Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Babenko, A.

    2010-01-01

    All the results about posterior rates obtained until now are related to the optimal (minimax) rates for the estimation problem over the corresponding nonparametric smoothness classes, i.e. of a global nature. In the meantime, a new local approach to optimality has been developed within the

  20. Diversification rates are more strongly related to microhabitat than climate in squamate reptiles (lizards and snakes).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bars-Closel, Melissa; Kohlsdorf, Tiana; Moen, Daniel S; Wiens, John J

    2017-09-01

    Patterns of species richness among clades can be directly explained by the ages of clades or their rates of diversification. The factors that most strongly influence diversification rates remain highly uncertain, since most studies typically consider only a single predictor variable. Here, we explore the relative impacts of macroclimate (i.e., occurring in tropical vs. temperate regions) and microhabitat use (i.e., terrestrial, fossorial, arboreal, aquatic) on diversification rates of squamate reptile clades (lizards and snakes). We obtained data on microhabitat, macroclimatic distribution, and phylogeny for >4000 species. We estimated diversification rates of squamate clades (mostly families) from a time-calibrated tree, and used phylogenetic methods to test relationships between diversification rates and microhabitat and macroclimate. Across 72 squamate clades, the best-fitting model included microhabitat but not climatic distribution. Microhabitat explained ∼37% of the variation in diversification rates among clades, with a generally positive impact of arboreal microhabitat use on diversification, and negative impacts of fossorial and aquatic microhabitat use. Overall, our results show that the impacts of microhabitat on diversification rates can be more important than those of climate, despite much greater emphasis on climate in previous studies. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  1. Micromechanical modeling of rate-dependent behavior of Connective tissues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallah, A; Ahmadian, M T; Firozbakhsh, K; Aghdam, M M

    2017-03-07

    In this paper, a constitutive and micromechanical model for prediction of rate-dependent behavior of connective tissues (CTs) is presented. Connective tissues are considered as nonlinear viscoelastic material. The rate-dependent behavior of CTs is incorporated into model using the well-known quasi-linear viscoelasticity (QLV) theory. A planar wavy representative volume element (RVE) is considered based on the tissue microstructure histological evidences. The presented model parameters are identified based on the available experiments in the literature. The presented constitutive model introduced to ABAQUS by means of UMAT subroutine. Results show that, monotonic uniaxial test predictions of the presented model at different strain rates for rat tail tendon (RTT) and human patellar tendon (HPT) are in good agreement with experimental data. Results of incremental stress-relaxation test are also presented to investigate both instantaneous and viscoelastic behavior of connective tissues. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Equivalence of interest rate models and lattice gases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirjol, Dan

    2012-04-01

    We consider the class of short rate interest rate models for which the short rate is proportional to the exponential of a Gaussian Markov process x(t) in the terminal measure r(t)=a(t)exp[x(t)]. These models include the Black-Derman-Toy and Black-Karasinski models in the terminal measure. We show that such interest rate models are equivalent to lattice gases with attractive two-body interaction, V(t(1),t(2))=-Cov[x(t(1)),x(t(2))]. We consider in some detail the Black-Karasinski model with x(t) as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and show that it is similar to a lattice gas model considered by Kac and Helfand, with attractive long-range two-body interactions, V(x,y)=-α(e(-γ|x-y|)-e(-γ(x+y))). An explicit solution for the model is given as a sum over the states of the lattice gas, which is used to show that the model has a phase transition similar to that found previously in the Black-Derman-Toy model in the terminal measure.

  3. Dependence of the firearm-related homicide rate on gun availability: a mathematical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wodarz, Dominik; Komarova, Natalia L

    2013-01-01

    In the USA, the relationship between the legal availability of guns and the firearm-related homicide rate has been debated. It has been argued that unrestricted gun availability promotes the occurrence of firearm-induced homicides. It has also been pointed out that gun possession can protect potential victims when attacked. This paper provides a first mathematical analysis of this tradeoff, with the goal to steer the debate towards arguing about assumptions, statistics, and scientific methods. The model is based on a set of clearly defined assumptions, which are supported by available statistical data, and is formulated axiomatically such that results do not depend on arbitrary mathematical expressions. According to this framework, two alternative scenarios can minimize the gun-related homicide rate: a ban of private firearms possession, or a policy allowing the general population to carry guns. Importantly, the model identifies the crucial parameters that determine which policy minimizes the death rate, and thus serves as a guide for the design of future epidemiological studies. The parameters that need to be measured include the fraction of offenders that illegally possess a gun, the degree of protection provided by gun ownership, and the fraction of the population who take up their right to own a gun and carry it when attacked. Limited data available in the literature were used to demonstrate how the model can be parameterized, and this preliminary analysis suggests that a ban of private firearm possession, or possibly a partial reduction in gun availability, might lower the rate of firearm-induced homicides. This, however, should not be seen as a policy recommendation, due to the limited data available to inform and parameterize the model. However, the model clearly defines what needs to be measured, and provides a basis for a scientific discussion about assumptions and data.

  4. Dependence of the firearm-related homicide rate on gun availability: a mathematical analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominik Wodarz

    Full Text Available In the USA, the relationship between the legal availability of guns and the firearm-related homicide rate has been debated. It has been argued that unrestricted gun availability promotes the occurrence of firearm-induced homicides. It has also been pointed out that gun possession can protect potential victims when attacked. This paper provides a first mathematical analysis of this tradeoff, with the goal to steer the debate towards arguing about assumptions, statistics, and scientific methods. The model is based on a set of clearly defined assumptions, which are supported by available statistical data, and is formulated axiomatically such that results do not depend on arbitrary mathematical expressions. According to this framework, two alternative scenarios can minimize the gun-related homicide rate: a ban of private firearms possession, or a policy allowing the general population to carry guns. Importantly, the model identifies the crucial parameters that determine which policy minimizes the death rate, and thus serves as a guide for the design of future epidemiological studies. The parameters that need to be measured include the fraction of offenders that illegally possess a gun, the degree of protection provided by gun ownership, and the fraction of the population who take up their right to own a gun and carry it when attacked. Limited data available in the literature were used to demonstrate how the model can be parameterized, and this preliminary analysis suggests that a ban of private firearm possession, or possibly a partial reduction in gun availability, might lower the rate of firearm-induced homicides. This, however, should not be seen as a policy recommendation, due to the limited data available to inform and parameterize the model. However, the model clearly defines what needs to be measured, and provides a basis for a scientific discussion about assumptions and data.

  5. A statistical modeling approach to build expert credit risk rating systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waagepetersen, Rasmus

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an efficient method for extracting expert knowledge when building a credit risk rating system. Experts are asked to rate a sample of counterparty cases according to creditworthiness. Next, a statistical model is used to capture the relation between the characteristics...... of a counterparty and the expert rating. For any counterparty the model can identify the rating, which would be agreed upon by the majority of experts. Furthermore, the model can quantify the concurrence among experts. The approach is illustrated by a case study regarding the construction of an application score...

  6. Age-Related Racial Disparity in Suicide Rates Among U.S. Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... May 30, 2018 Age-Related Racial Disparity in Youth Suicide Rates May 21, 2018 News by Year 2018 ... May 30, 2018 Age-Related Racial Disparity in Youth Suicide Rates May 21, 2018 News by Year 2018 ...

  7. Modeling of the interest rate policy of the central bank of Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelomentsev, A. G.; Berg, D. B.; Detkov, A. A.; Rylova, A. P.

    2017-11-01

    This paper investigates interactions among money supply, exchange rates, inflation, and nominal interest rates, which are regulating parameters of the Central bank policy. The study is based on the data received from Russian source in 2002-2016. The major findings are 1) the interest rate demonstrates almost no relation with inflation; 2) ties of money supply and the nominal interest rate are strong; 3) money supply and inflation show meaningful relations only in comparison to their growth rates. We have developed a dynamic model, which can be used in forecasting of macroeconomic processes.

  8. Inflation, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates in Ghana: an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Nchor

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate movement and the nominal interest rate on inflation in Ghana. It also looks at the presence of the Fisher Effect and the International Fisher Effect scenarios. It makes use of an autoregressive distributed lag model and an unrestricted error correction model. Ordinary Least Squares regression methods were also employed to determine the presence of the Fischer Effect and the International Fisher Effect. The results from the study show that in the short run a percentage point increase in the level of depreciation of the Ghana cedi leads to an increase in the rate of inflation by 0.20%. A percentage point increase in the level of nominal interest rates however results in a decrease in inflation by 0.98%. Inflation increases by 1.33% for every percentage point increase in the nominal interest rate in the long run. An increase in inflation on the other hand increases the nominal interest rate by 0.51% which demonstrates the partial Fisher effect. A 1% increase in the interest rate differential leads to a depreciation of the Ghana cedi by approximately 1% which indicates the full International Fisher effect.

  9. A Model of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization for Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Ozlem Aytac

    2008-01-01

    The literature on the exchange-rate-based stabilization has focused almost exclusively in Latin America. Many other countries however, such as Egypt, Lebanon and Turkey; have undertaken this sort of programs in the last 10-15 years. I depart from the existing literature by developing a model specifically for the 2000-2001 heterodox exchange-rate-based stabilization program in Turkey: When the government lowers the rate of crawl, the rate of domestic credit creation is set equal to the lower r...

  10. Modeling baroreflex regulation of heart rate during orthostatic stress

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olufsen, Mette; Tran, Hien T.; Ottesen, Johnny T.

    2006-01-01

    . The model uses blood pressure measured in the finger as an input to model heart rate dynamics in response to changes in baroreceptor nerve firing rate, sympathetic and parasympathetic responses, vestibulo-sympathetic reflex, and concentrations of norepinephrine and acetylcholine. We formulate an inverse...... in healthy and hypertensive elderly people the hysteresis loop shifts to higher blood pressure values and its area is diminished. Finally, for hypertensive elderly people the hysteresis loop is generally not closed indicating that during postural change from sitting to standing, the blood pressure resettles......During orthostatic stress, arterial and cardiopulmonary baroreflexes play a key role in maintaining arterial pressure by regulating heart rate. This study, presents a mathematical model that can predict the dynamics of heart rate regulation in response to postural change from sitting to standing...

  11. An examination of black/white differences in the rate of age-related mortality increase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fenelon

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND The rate of mortality increase with age among adults is typically used as a measure of the rate of functional decline associated with aging or senescence. While black and white populations differ in the level of mortality, mortality also rises less rapidly with age for blacks than for whites, leading to the well-known black/white mortality "crossover". OBJECTIVE This paper investigates black/white differences in the rate of mortality increase with age for major causes of death in order to examine the factors responsible for the black/white crossover. METHODS The analysis considers two explanations for the crossover: selective survival and age misreporting. Mortality is modeled using a Gompertz model for 11 causes of death from ages 50-84 among blacks and whites by sex. RESULTS Mortality increases more rapidly with age for whites than for blacks for nearly all causes of death considered. The all-cause mortality rate of mortality increase is nearly two percentage points higher for whites. The analysis finds evidence for both selective survival and age misreporting, although age misreporting is a more prominent explanation among women. CONCLUSIONS The black/white mortality crossover reflects large differences in the rate of age-related mortality increase. Instead of reflecting the impact of specific causes of death, this pattern exists across many disparate disease conditions, indicating the need for a broad explanation.

  12. Magnet-related injury rates in children: a single hospital experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agbo, Chioma; Lee, Lois; Chiang, Vincent; Landscahft, Assaf; Kimia, Tomer; Monuteaux, Michael C; Kimia, Amir A

    2013-07-01

    The ingestion of multiple magnets simultaneously or the placement of magnets in both nares can lead to serious injury resulting from the attraction of the magnets across the tissues. The impact of mandatory standards for toys containing magnets has not been thoroughly investigated. The aim of the present study was to describe the emergency department (ED) visit rate for magnet-related injuries. We performed a retrospective study of children evaluated for magnet-related injuries from 1995 to 2012 in an urban tertiary care pediatric ED. We identified cases using a computerized text-search methodology followed by manual chart review. We included children evaluated for magnet ingestion or impaction in the ears, nose, vagina, or rectum. We assessed the type and number of magnets as well as management and required interventions. A Poisson regression model was used to analyze rates of injury over time. We identified 112 cases of magnet injuries. The median patient age was 6 years (IQR 3.5, 10), and 54% were male. Compared to before 2006, the rate for all magnet-related injuries in 2007-2012 (incidence rate ratio 3.44; 95% confidence interval 2.3-5.11) as well as multiple magnet-related injuries (incidence rate ratio 7.54; 95% confidence interval 3.51-16.19) increased. Swallowed magnets accounted for 86% of the injuries. Thirteen patients had endoscopy performed for magnet removal (12%), and 4 (4%) had a surgical intervention. Magnets from toys account for the majority of the injuries. The number of ED visits for magnet-related injuries in children may be rising and are underreported, with an increase in the proportion of multiple magnets involvement. In our case series, mandatory standard for toys had no mitigating effect.

  13. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole.

  14. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I.

    2013-01-01

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole

  15. Dose rate modelled for the outdoors of a gamma irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mangussi, J

    2012-01-01

    A model for the absorbed dose rate calculation on the surroundings of a gamma irradiation plant is developed. In such plants, a part of the radiation emitted upwards reach's the outdoors. The Compton scatterings on the wall of the exhausting pipes through de plant roof and on the outdoors air are modelled. The absorbed dose rate generated by the scattered radiation as far as 200 m is calculated. The results of the models, to be used for the irradiation plant design and for the environmental studies, are showed on graphics (author)

  16. Variable selection for mixture and promotion time cure rate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masud, Abdullah; Tu, Wanzhu; Yu, Zhangsheng

    2016-11-16

    Failure-time data with cured patients are common in clinical studies. Data from these studies are typically analyzed with cure rate models. Variable selection methods have not been well developed for cure rate models. In this research, we propose two least absolute shrinkage and selection operators based methods, for variable selection in mixture and promotion time cure models with parametric or nonparametric baseline hazards. We conduct an extensive simulation study to assess the operating characteristics of the proposed methods. We illustrate the use of the methods using data from a study of childhood wheezing. © The Author(s) 2016.

  17. CONTINUOUS MODELING OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE OF USD VERSUS TRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yakup Arı

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to construct continuous-time autoregressive (CAR model and continuous-time GARCH (COGARCH model from discrete time data of foreign exchange rate of United States Dollar (USD versus Turkish Lira (TRY. These processes are solutions to stochastic differential equation Lévy-driven processes. We have shown that CAR(1 and COGARCH(1,1 processes are proper models to represent foreign exchange rate of USD and TRY for different periods of time February 2002- June 2010.

  18. Risk considerations related to lung modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masse, R.; Cross, F.T.

    1989-01-01

    Improved lung models provide a more accurate assessment of dose from inhalation exposures and, therefore, more accurate dose-response relationships for risk evaluation and exposure limitation. Epidemiological data for externally irradiated persons indicate that the numbers of excess respiratory tract carcinomas differ in the upper airways, bronchi, and distal lung. Neither their histogenesis and anatomical location nor their progenitor cells are known with sufficient accuracy for accurate assessment of the microdosimetry. The nuclei of sensitive cells generally can be assumed to be distributed at random in the epithelium, beneath the mucus and tips of the beating cilia and cells. In stratified epithelia, basal cells may be considered the only cells at risk. Upper-airway tumors have been observed in both therapeutically irradiated patients and in Hiroshima-Nagasaki survivors. The current International Commission on Radiological Protection Lung-Model Task Group proposes that the upper airways and lung have a similar relative risk coefficient for cancer induction. The partition of the risk weighting factor, therefore, will be proportional to the spontaneous death rate from tumors, and 80% of the weighting factor for the respiratory tract should be attributed to the lung. For Weibel lung-model branching generations 0 to 16 and 17 to 23, the Task Group proposes an 80/20 partition of the risk, i.e., 64% and 16%, respectively, of the total risk. Regarding risk in animals, recent data in rats indicate a significantly lower effectiveness for lung-cancer induction at low doses from insoluble long-lived alpha-emitters than from Rn daughters. These findings are due, in part, to the fact that different regions of the lung are irradiated. Tumors in the lymph nodes are rare in people and animals exposed to radiation.44 references

  19. Oral health-related quality of life in youth receiving cleft-related surgery: self-report and proxy ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broder, Hillary L; Wilson-Genderson, Maureen; Sischo, Lacey

    2017-04-01

    This paper evaluated the impact of cleft-related surgery on the oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) of youth with cleft over time. Data were derived from a 5-year, multi-center, prospective, longitudinal study of 1196 youth with cleft lip and/or palate and their caregivers. Eligible youth were between 7.5 and 18.5 years old, spoke English or Spanish, and were non-syndromic. During each observational period, which included baseline, and 1- and 2-year post-baseline follow-up visits, youths and their caregivers completed the Child Oral Health Impact Profile, a validated measure of OHRQoL. Multilevel mixed-effects models were used to analyze the effects of receipt of craniofacial surgery on OHRQoL over time. During the course of this study a total of 516 patients (43 %) received at least one surgery. Youth in the surgery recommendation group had lower self- (β = -2.18, p self- and proxy-rated OHRQoL at baseline. Both surgical and non-surgical youth (β = 3.73, p self-reported OHRQoL for youth postsurgery (β = 1.04, p self- and caregiver-rated OHRQoL when compared to non-surgical youth. Youth who underwent cleft-related surgery had significant incremental improvements in self-rated but not caregiver (proxy)-rated OHRQoL after surgery.

  20. The Relation Between Plate Spreading Rate, Crustal Thickness and Axial Relief at Mid-Ocean Ridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Buck, W. R.

    2017-12-01

    Variations in axial valley relief and in faulting at plate spreading centers are clearly related to magma supply and axial lithospheric structure. Previous models that consider the interaction of magmatic dikes with lithospheric stretching do not successfully reproduce both of these trends. We present the first model that reproduces these trends by making simple assumptions about the partitioning of magma between dikes, gabbros and extrusives. A key concept is that dikes open not only in the brittle axial lithosphere but also into the underlying ductile crust, where they cool to form gabbro. The amount of gabbro so intruded depends on magma pressure that is related to axial relief. The deeper the valley the less magma goes into gabbros and the more magma is available for dikes to accommodate plate separation. We define the fraction of plate separation rate accommodated by dikes as M. If Mreasonable. Finally, we describe themo-mechanical models that allow us to relate plate spreading rate and crustal thickness and to axial valley depth.

  1. A Logistic Regression Based Auto Insurance Rate-Making Model Designed for the Insurance Rate Reform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengmin Duan

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Using a generalized linear model to determine the claim frequency of auto insurance is a key ingredient in non-life insurance research. Among auto insurance rate-making models, there are very few considering auto types. Therefore, in this paper we are proposing a model that takes auto types into account by making an innovative use of the auto burden index. Based on this model and data from a Chinese insurance company, we built a clustering model that classifies auto insurance rates into three risk levels. The claim frequency and the claim costs are fitted to select a better loss distribution. Then the Logistic Regression model is employed to fit the claim frequency, with the auto burden index considered. Three key findings can be concluded from our study. First, more than 80% of the autos with an auto burden index of 20 or higher belong to the highest risk level. Secondly, the claim frequency is better fitted using the Poisson distribution, however the claim cost is better fitted using the Gamma distribution. Lastly, based on the AIC criterion, the claim frequency is more adequately represented by models that consider the auto burden index than those do not. It is believed that insurance policy recommendations that are based on Generalized linear models (GLM can benefit from our findings.

  2. Evolution of cultural traits occurs at similar relative rates in different world regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Thomas E; Mace, Ruth

    2014-11-22

    A fundamental issue in understanding human diversity is whether or not there are regular patterns and processes involved in cultural change. Theoretical and mathematical models of cultural evolution have been developed and are increasingly being used and assessed in empirical analyses. Here, we test the hypothesis that the rates of change of features of human socio-cultural organization are governed by general rules. One prediction of this hypothesis is that different cultural traits will tend to evolve at similar relative rates in different world regions, despite the unique historical backgrounds of groups inhabiting these regions. We used phylogenetic comparative methods and systematic cross-cultural data to assess how different socio-cultural traits changed in (i) island southeast Asia and the Pacific, and (ii) sub-Saharan Africa. The relative rates of change in these two regions are significantly correlated. Furthermore, cultural traits that are more directly related to external environmental conditions evolve more slowly than traits related to social structures. This is consistent with the idea that a form of purifying selection is acting with greater strength on these more environmentally linked traits. These results suggest that despite contingent historical events and the role of humans as active agents in the historical process, culture does indeed evolve in ways that can be predicted from general principles.

  3. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ying, Khor Chia; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2014-01-01

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ (j) of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ (j) , we assume that φ (j) depends on φ (j−m) , φ (j−m+1) ,…, φ (j−1) and the interest rate r j+n at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r j+n+1 of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r j+n of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r j+n+d at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters

  4. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ying, Khor Chia [Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Multimedia University, Jalan Multimedia, 63100 Cyberjaya, Selangor (Malaysia); Hin, Pooi Ah [Sunway University Business School, No. 5, Jalan Universiti, Bandar Sunway, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

  5. A model for reaction rates in turbulent reacting flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chinitz, W.; Evans, J. S.

    1984-01-01

    To account for the turbulent temperature and species-concentration fluctuations, a model is presented on the effects of chemical reaction rates in computer analyses of turbulent reacting flows. The model results in two parameters which multiply the terms in the reaction-rate equations. For these two parameters, graphs are presented as functions of the mean values and intensity of the turbulent fluctuations of the temperature and species concentrations. These graphs will facilitate incorporation of the model into existing computer programs which describe turbulent reacting flows. When the model was used in a two-dimensional parabolic-flow computer code to predict the behavior of an experimental, supersonic hydrogen jet burning in air, some improvement in agreement with the experimental data was obtained in the far field in the region near the jet centerline. Recommendations are included for further improvement of the model and for additional comparisons with experimental data.

  6. Modeling decay rates of dead wood in a neotropical forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hérault, Bruno; Beauchêne, Jacques; Muller, Félix; Wagner, Fabien; Baraloto, Christopher; Blanc, Lilian; Martin, Jean-Michel

    2010-09-01

    Variation of dead wood decay rates among tropical trees remains one source of uncertainty in global models of the carbon cycle. Taking advantage of a broad forest plot network surveyed for tree mortality over a 23-year period, we measured the remaining fraction of boles from 367 dead trees from 26 neotropical species widely varying in wood density (0.23-1.24 g cm(-3)) and tree circumference at death time (31.5-272.0 cm). We modeled decay rates within a Bayesian framework assuming a first order differential equation to model the decomposition process and tested for the effects of forest management (selective logging vs. unexploited), of mode of death (standing vs. downed) and of topographical levels (bottomlands vs. hillsides vs. hilltops) on wood decay rates. The general decay model predicts the observed remaining fraction of dead wood (R2 = 60%) with only two biological predictors: tree circumference at death time and wood specific density. Neither selective logging nor local topography had a differential effect on wood decay rates. Including the mode of death into the model revealed that standing dead trees decomposed faster than downed dead trees, but the gain of model accuracy remains rather marginal. Overall, these results suggest that the release of carbon from tropical dead trees to the atmosphere can be simply estimated using tree circumference at death time and wood density.

  7. Modeling the intracellular pathogen-immune interaction with cure rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, Balram; Dubey, Preeti; Dubey, Uma S.

    2016-09-01

    Many common and emergent infectious diseases like Influenza, SARS, Hepatitis, Ebola etc. are caused by viral pathogens. These infections can be controlled or prevented by understanding the dynamics of pathogen-immune interaction in vivo. In this paper, interaction of pathogens with uninfected and infected cells in presence or absence of immune response are considered in four different cases. In the first case, the model considers the saturated nonlinear infection rate and linear cure rate without absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells and without immune response. The next model considers the effect of absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells while all other terms are same as in the first case. The third model incorporates innate immune response, humoral immune response and Cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) mediated immune response with cure rate and without absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells. The last model is an extension of the third model in which the effect of absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells has been considered. Positivity and boundedness of solutions are established to ensure the well-posedness of the problem. It has been found that all the four models have two equilibria, namely, pathogen-free equilibrium point and pathogen-present equilibrium point. In each case, stability analysis of each equilibrium point is investigated. Pathogen-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when basic reproduction number is less or equal to unity. This implies that control or prevention of infection is independent of initial concentration of uninfected cells, infected cells, pathogens and immune responses in the body. The proposed models show that introduction of immune response and cure rate strongly affects the stability behavior of the system. Further, on computing basic reproduction number, it has been found to be minimum for the fourth model vis-a-vis other models. The analytical findings of each model have been exemplified by

  8. Addition by Subtraction: The Relation Between Dropout Rates and School-Level Academic Achievement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glennie, Elizabeth; Bonneau, Kara; Vandellen, Michelle; Dodge, Kenneth A

    2012-01-01

    Efforts to improve student achievement should increase graduation rates. However, work investigating the effects of student-level accountability has consistently demonstrated that increases in the standards for high school graduation are correlated with increases in dropout rates. The most favored explanation for this finding is that high-stakes testing policies that mandate grade repetition and high school exit exams may be the tipping point for students who are already struggling academically. These extra demands may, in fact, push students out of school. This article examines two hypotheses regarding the relation between school-level accountability and dropout rates. The first posits that improvements in school performance lead to improved success for everyone. If school-level accountability systems improve a school for all students, then the proportion of students performing at grade level increases, and the dropout rate decreases. The second hypothesis posits that schools facing pressure to improve their overall accountability score may pursue this increase at the cost of other student outcomes, including dropout rate. Our approach focuses on the dynamic relation between school-level academic achievement and dropout rates over time-that is, between one year's achievement and the subsequent year's dropout rate, and vice versa. This article employs longitudinal data of records on all students in North Carolina public schools over an 8-year period. Analyses employ fixed-effects models clustering schools and districts within years and controls each year for school size, percentage of students who were free/reduced-price lunch eligible, percentage of students who are ethnic minorities, and locale. This study finds partial evidence that improvements in school-level academic performance will lead to improvements (i.e., decreases) in school-level dropout rates. Schools with improved performance saw decreased dropout rates following these successes. However, we find

  9. Addition by Subtraction: The Relation Between Dropout Rates and School-Level Academic Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    GLENNIE, ELIZABETH; BONNEAU, KARA; VANDELLEN, MICHELLE; DODGE, KENNETH A.

    2013-01-01

    Background/Context Efforts to improve student achievement should increase graduation rates. However, work investigating the effects of student-level accountability has consistently demonstrated that increases in the standards for high school graduation are correlated with increases in dropout rates. The most favored explanation for this finding is that high-stakes testing policies that mandate grade repetition and high school exit exams may be the tipping point for students who are already struggling academically. These extra demands may, in fact, push students out of school. Purpose/Objective/Focus This article examines two hypotheses regarding the relation between school-level accountability and dropout rates. The first posits that improvements in school performance lead to improved success for everyone. If school-level accountability systems improve a school for all students, then the proportion of students performing at grade level increases, and the dropout rate decreases. The second hypothesis posits that schools facing pressure to improve their overall accountability score may pursue this increase at the cost of other student outcomes, including dropout rate. Research Design Our approach focuses on the dynamic relation between school-level academic achievement and dropout rates over time—that is, between one year’s achievement and the subsequent year’s dropout rate, and vice versa. This article employs longitudinal data of records on all students in North Carolina public schools over an 8-year period. Analyses employ fixed-effects models clustering schools and districts within years and controls each year for school size, percentage of students who were free/reduced-price lunch eligible, percentage of students who are ethnic minorities, and locale. Findings/Results This study finds partial evidence that improvements in school-level academic performance will lead to improvements (i.e., decreases) in school-level dropout rates. Schools with improved

  10. Modeling climate effects on hip fracture rate by the multivariate GARCH model in Montreal region, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, Reza; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Vanasse, Alain; Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Gosselin, Pierre

    2014-07-01

    Changes in extreme meteorological variables and the demographic shift towards an older population have made it important to investigate the association of climate variables and hip fracture by advanced methods in order to determine the climate variables that most affect hip fracture incidence. The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA X-GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time series approaches were applied to investigate the nonlinear association between hip fracture rate in female and male patients aged 40-74 and 75+ years and climate variables in the period of 1993-2004, in Montreal, Canada. The models describe 50-56 % of daily variation in hip fracture rate and identify snow depth, air temperature, day length and air pressure as the influencing variables on the time-varying mean and variance of the hip fracture rate. The conditional covariance between climate variables and hip fracture rate is increasing exponentially, showing that the effect of climate variables on hip fracture rate is most acute when rates are high and climate conditions are at their worst. In Montreal, climate variables, particularly snow depth and air temperature, appear to be important predictors of hip fracture incidence. The association of climate variables and hip fracture does not seem to change linearly with time, but increases exponentially under harsh climate conditions. The results of this study can be used to provide an adaptive climate-related public health program and ti guide allocation of services for avoiding hip fracture risk.

  11. Modelling of behaviour of metals at high strain rates

    OpenAIRE

    Panov, Vili

    2006-01-01

    The aim of the work presented in this thesis was to produce the improvement of the existing simulation tools used for the analysis of materials and structures, which are dynamically loaded and subjected to the different levels of temperatures and strain rates. The main objective of this work was development of tools for modelling of strain rate and temperature dependant behaviour of aluminium alloys, typical for aerospace structures with pronounced orthotropic properties, and their implementa...

  12. Do expert ratings or economic models explain champagne prices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bentzen, Jan Børsen; Smith, Valdemar

    2008-01-01

    Champagne is bought with low frequency and many consumers most likely do not have or seek full information on the quality of champagne. Some consumers may rely on the reputation of particular brands, e.g. "Les Grandes Marques", some consumers choose to gain information from sensory ratings...... of champagne. The aim of this paper is to analyse the champagne prices on the Scandinavian markets by applying a hedonic price function in a comparative framework with minimal models using sensory ratings....

  13. A model for rate-dependent but time-independent material behavior in cyclic plasticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dafalias, Y.F.; Ramey, M.R.; Sheikh, I.

    1977-01-01

    It is the purpose of this paper to present a model for rate-dependent but time independent material behavior under cyclic loading in the plastic range. What is referred to as time independent behavior here, is the absence of creep and relaxation phenomena from the behavior of the model. The notion of plastic internal variables (piv) is introduced, as properly invariant scalars or second order tensors, whose constitutive relations are rate-type equations not necessarily homogeneous of oder one in the rates, as it would be required for independent plasticity. The concept of a yield surface in the strain space and a loading function in terms of the total strain rate is introduced, where the sign of the loading function defines zero or non-zero value of the rate of piv. Thus rate dependence is achieved without time dependent behavior (no creep or relaxation). In addition, discrete memory parameters associated with the most recent event of unloading-reloading in different directions enter the constitutive relations for the piv. A particular form of the constitutive relations is assumed, where the rate of piv is a linear combination of the strain rate components, with coefficients depending on the second invariant of the strain rate tensor, which can be viewed as a scalar measure of the rate of deformation in the multiaxial case and a direct generalization of the uniaxial strain rate. This leads to a particularly simple form of the constitutive relations resembling the ones for rate independent plasticity. The uniaxial counterpart would be a relation between the plastic strain rate (as one of the piv) and the total strain rate through a plastic modulus which depends on the strain rate, the piv, and the discrete memory parameters

  14. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkers, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2002-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems,

  15. Influence of water relations and growth rate on plant element uptake and distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greger, Maria [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Botany

    2006-02-15

    Plant uptake of Ni, Sr, Mo, Cs, La, Th, Se, Cl and I was examined to determine how plant water relations and growth rate influence the uptake and distribution of these elements in the studied plants. The specific questions were how water uptake and growth rate influenced the uptake of various nuclides and how transpiration influenced translocation to the shoot. The knowledge gained will be used in future modelling of radionuclide leakage from nuclear waste deposits entering the ecosystem via plants. The plant studied was willow, Salix viminalis, a common plant in the areas suggested for waste disposal; since there can be clone variation, two different clones having different uptake properties for several other heavy metals were used. The plants were grown in nutrient solution and the experiments on 3-month-old plants were run for 3 days. Polyethylene glycol was added to the medium to decrease the water uptake rate, a fan was used to increase the transpiration rate, and different light intensities were used to produce different growth rates. Element concentration was analysed in roots and shoots. The results show that both the uptake and distribution of various elements are influenced in different ways and to various extents by water flow and plant growth rate, and that it is not possible from the chemical properties of these elements to know how they will react. However, in most cases increased growth rate diluted the concentration of the element in the tissue, reduced water uptake reduced the element uptake, while transpiration had no effect on the translocation of elements to the shoot. The clones did not differ in terms of either the uptake or translocation of the elements, except that I was not taken up and translocated to the shoot in one of the clones when the plant water flow or growth rate was too low. Not all of the elements were found in the plant in the same proportions as they had been added to the nutrient solution.

  16. Influence of water relations and growth rate on plant element uptake and distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greger, Maria

    2006-02-01

    Plant uptake of Ni, Sr, Mo, Cs, La, Th, Se, Cl and I was examined to determine how plant water relations and growth rate influence the uptake and distribution of these elements in the studied plants. The specific questions were how water uptake and growth rate influenced the uptake of various nuclides and how transpiration influenced translocation to the shoot. The knowledge gained will be used in future modelling of radionuclide leakage from nuclear waste deposits entering the ecosystem via plants. The plant studied was willow, Salix viminalis, a common plant in the areas suggested for waste disposal; since there can be clone variation, two different clones having different uptake properties for several other heavy metals were used. The plants were grown in nutrient solution and the experiments on 3-month-old plants were run for 3 days. Polyethylene glycol was added to the medium to decrease the water uptake rate, a fan was used to increase the transpiration rate, and different light intensities were used to produce different growth rates. Element concentration was analysed in roots and shoots. The results show that both the uptake and distribution of various elements are influenced in different ways and to various extents by water flow and plant growth rate, and that it is not possible from the chemical properties of these elements to know how they will react. However, in most cases increased growth rate diluted the concentration of the element in the tissue, reduced water uptake reduced the element uptake, while transpiration had no effect on the translocation of elements to the shoot. The clones did not differ in terms of either the uptake or translocation of the elements, except that I was not taken up and translocated to the shoot in one of the clones when the plant water flow or growth rate was too low. Not all of the elements were found in the plant in the same proportions as they had been added to the nutrient solution

  17. The Relation between Recombination Rate and Patterns of Molecular Evolution and Variation in Drosophila melanogaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos, José L.; Halligan, Daniel L.; Haddrill, Penelope R.; Charlesworth, Brian

    2014-01-01

    Genetic recombination associated with sexual reproduction increases the efficiency of natural selection by reducing the strength of Hill–Robertson interference. Such interference can be caused either by selective sweeps of positively selected alleles or by background selection (BGS) against deleterious mutations. Its consequences can be studied by comparing patterns of molecular evolution and variation in genomic regions with different rates of crossing over. We carried out a comprehensive study of the benefits of recombination in Drosophila melanogaster, both by contrasting five independent genomic regions that lack crossing over with the rest of the genome and by comparing regions with different rates of crossing over, using data on DNA sequence polymorphisms from an African population that is geographically close to the putatively ancestral population for the species, and on sequence divergence from a related species. We observed reductions in sequence diversity in noncrossover (NC) regions that are inconsistent with the effects of hard selective sweeps in the absence of recombination. Overall, the observed patterns suggest that the recombination rate experienced by a gene is positively related to an increase in the efficiency of both positive and purifying selection. The results are consistent with a BGS model with interference among selected sites in NC regions, and joint effects of BGS, selective sweeps, and a past population expansion on variability in regions of the genome that experience crossing over. In such crossover regions, the X chromosome exhibits a higher rate of adaptive protein sequence evolution than the autosomes, implying a Faster-X effect. PMID:24489114

  18. An Econometric Diffusion Model of Exchange Rate Movements within a Band - Implications for Interest Rate Differential and Credibility of Exchange Rate Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Rantala, Olavi

    1992-01-01

    The paper presents a model ofexchange rate movements within a specified exchange rate band enforced by central bank interventions. The model is based on the empirical observation that the exchange rate has usually been strictly inside the band, at least in Finland. In this model the distribution of the exchange rate is truncated lognormal from the edges towards the center of the band and hence quite different from the bimodal distribution of the standard target zone model. The model is estima...

  19. Forecast model of safety economy contribution rate of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Li-jun; SHI Shi-liang

    2005-01-01

    It is the rational and exact computation of the safety economy contribution rate that has the far-reaching realistic meaning to the improvement of society cognition to safety and the investment to the nation safety and the national macro-safety decision-makings. The accurate function between safety inputs and outputs was obtained through a founded econometric model. Then the forecasted safety economy contribution rate is 3.01% and the forecasted ratio between safety inputs and outputs is 1:1.81 in China in 2005. And the model accords with the practice of China and the results are satisfying.

  20. Pipe fracture evaluations for leak-rate detection: Probabilistic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahman, S.; Wilkowski, G.; Ghadiali, N.

    1993-01-01

    This is the second in series of three papers generated from studies on nuclear pipe fracture evaluations for leak-rate detection. This paper focuses on the development of novel probabilistic models for stochastic performance evaluation of degraded nuclear piping systems. It was accomplished here in three distinct stages. First, a statistical analysis was conducted to characterize various input variables for thermo-hydraulic analysis and elastic-plastic fracture mechanics, such as material properties of pipe, crack morphology variables, and location of cracks found in nuclear piping. Second, a new stochastic model was developed to evaluate performance of degraded piping systems. It is based on accurate deterministic models for thermo-hydraulic and fracture mechanics analyses described in the first paper, statistical characterization of various input variables, and state-of-the-art methods of modem structural reliability theory. From this model. the conditional probability of failure as a function of leak-rate detection capability of the piping systems can be predicted. Third, a numerical example was presented to illustrate the proposed model for piping reliability analyses. Results clearly showed that the model provides satisfactory estimates of conditional failure probability with much less computational effort when compared with those obtained from Monte Carlo simulation. The probabilistic model developed in this paper will be applied to various piping in boiling water reactor and pressurized water reactor plants for leak-rate detection applications

  1. Similar star formation rate and metallicity variability time-scales drive the fundamental metallicity relation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torrey, Paul; Vogelsberger, Mark; Hernquist, Lars; McKinnon, Ryan; Marinacci, Federico; Simcoe, Robert A.; Springel, Volker; Pillepich, Annalisa; Naiman, Jill; Pakmor, Rüdiger; Weinberger, Rainer; Nelson, Dylan; Genel, Shy

    2018-06-01

    The fundamental metallicity relation (FMR) is a postulated correlation between galaxy stellar mass, star formation rate (SFR), and gas-phase metallicity. At its core, this relation posits that offsets from the mass-metallicity relation (MZR) at a fixed stellar mass are correlated with galactic SFR. In this Letter, we use hydrodynamical simulations to quantify the time-scales over which populations of galaxies oscillate about the average SFR and metallicity values at fixed stellar mass. We find that Illustris and IllustrisTNG predict that galaxy offsets from the star formation main sequence and MZR oscillate over similar time-scales, are often anticorrelated in their evolution, evolve with the halo dynamical time, and produce a pronounced FMR. Our models indicate that galaxies oscillate about equilibrium SFR and metallicity values - set by the galaxy's stellar mass - and that SFR and metallicity offsets evolve in an anticorrelated fashion. This anticorrelated variability of the metallicity and SFR offsets drives the existence of the FMR in our models. In contrast to Illustris and IllustrisTNG, we speculate that the SFR and metallicity evolution tracks may become decoupled in galaxy formation models dominated by feedback-driven globally bursty SFR histories, which could weaken the FMR residual correlation strength. This opens the possibility of discriminating between bursty and non-bursty feedback models based on the strength and persistence of the FMR - especially at high redshift.

  2. Calcitonin gene-related peptide alters the firing rates of hypothalamic temperature sensitive and insensitive neurons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grimm Eleanor R

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Transient hyperthermic shifts in body temperature have been linked to the endogenous hormone calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP, which can increase sympathetic activation and metabolic heat production. Recent studies have demonstrated that these centrally mediated responses may result from CGRP dependent changes in the activity of thermoregulatory neurons in the preoptic and anterior regions of the hypothalamus (POAH. Results Using a tissue slice preparation, we recorded the single-unit activity of POAH neurons from the adult male rat, in response to temperature and CGRP (10 μM. Based on the slope of firing rate as a function of temperature, neurons were classified as either warm sensitive or temperature insensitive. All warm sensitive neurons responded to CGRP with a significant decrease in firing rate. While CGRP did not alter the firing rates of some temperature insensitive neurons, responsive neurons showed an increase in firing rate. Conclusion With respect to current models of thermoregulatory control, these CGRP dependent changes in firing rate would result in hyperthermia. This suggests that both warm sensitive and temperature insensitive neurons in the POAH may play a role in producing this hyperthermic shift in temperature.

  3. Models and relations in economics and econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1999-01-01

    Based on a money market analysis using the cointegrated VAR model the paper demonstrates some possible pitfalls in macroeconomic inference as a direct consequence of inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady...

  4. Relating business modelling and enterprise architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meertens, Lucas Onno

    2013-01-01

    This thesis proposes a methodology for creating business models, evaluating them, and relating them to enterprise architecture. The methodology consists of several steps, leading from an organization’s current situation to a target situation, via business models and enterprise architecture.

  5. Relation between climate and diesel fuel rate consumption for sugar cane agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fonte Hernandez, Aramis; Rivero Vega, Roger

    2005-01-01

    In the present work, some results are shown of a study carried out within the ENERCLIMA project. The principal objective was to establish the relationship between diesel fuel rate consumption by agricultural equipment in activities related to sugar cane production and simple climatic variables. Through a statistical analysis, we show the possibility of obtaining statistical models of an acceptable confidence level, as applied to some of these activities, which could be used in order to plan more rationally the level of fuel consumption of the agricultural companies with access to meteorological stations located nearby

  6. The mass-metallicity-star formation rate relation under the STARLIGHT microscope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlickmann, M.; Vale Asari, N.; Cid Fernandes, R.; Stasińska, G.

    2014-10-01

    The correlation between stellar mass and gas-phase oxygen abundance (M-Z relation) has been known for decades. The slope and scatter of this trend is strongly dependent on galaxy evolution: Chemical enrichment in a galaxy is driven by its star formation history, which in turn depends on its secular evolution and interaction with other galaxies and intergalactic gas. In last couple of years, the M-Z relation has been studied as a function of a third parameter: the recent star formation rate (SFR) as calibrated by the Hα luminosity, which traces stars formed in the last 10 Myr. This mass-metallicity-SFR relation has been reported to be very tight. This result puts strong constraints on galaxy evolution models in low and high redshifts, informing which models of infall and outflow of gas are acceptable. We explore the mass-metallicity-SFR relation in light of the SDSS-STARLIGHT database put together by our group. We find that we recover similar results as the ones reported by authors who use the MPA/JHU catalogue. We also present some preliminary results exploring the mass-metallicity-SFR relation in a more detailed fashion: starlight recovers a galaxy's full star formation history, and not only its recent SFR.

  7. Protein Simulation Data in the Relational Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simms, Andrew M; Daggett, Valerie

    2012-10-01

    High performance computing is leading to unprecedented volumes of data. Relational databases offer a robust and scalable model for storing and analyzing scientific data. However, these features do not come without a cost-significant design effort is required to build a functional and efficient repository. Modeling protein simulation data in a relational database presents several challenges: the data captured from individual simulations are large, multi-dimensional, and must integrate with both simulation software and external data sites. Here we present the dimensional design and relational implementation of a comprehensive data warehouse for storing and analyzing molecular dynamics simulations using SQL Server.

  8. Vapor generation rate model for dispersed drop flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unal, C.; Tuzla, K.; Cokmez-Tuzla, A.F.; Chen, J.C.

    1991-01-01

    A comparison of predictions of existing nonequilibrium post-CHF heat transfer models with the recently obtained rod bundle data has been performed. The models used the experimental conditions and wall temperatures to predict the heat flux and vapor temperatures at the location of interest. No existing model was able to reasonably predict the vapor superheat and the wall heat flux simultaneously. Most of the models, except Chen-Sundaram-Ozkaynak, failed to predict the wall heat flux, while all of the models could not predict the vapor superheat data or trends. A recently developed two-region heat transfer model, the Webb-Chen two-region model, did not give a reasonable prediction of the vapor generation rate in the far field of the CHF point. A new correlation was formulated to predict the vapor generation rate in convective dispersed droplet flow in terms of thermal-hydraulic parameters and thermodynamic properties. A comparison of predictions of the two-region heat transfer model, with the use of a presently developed correlation, with all the existing post-CHF data, including single-tube and rod bundle, showed significant improvements in predicting the vapor superheat and tube wall heat flux trends. (orig.)

  9. Level-ARCH Short Rate Models with Regime Switching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    This paper introduces regime switching volatility into level- ARCH models for the short rates of the US, the UK, and Germany. Once regime switching and level effects are included there are no gains from including ARCH effects. It is of secondary importance exactly how the regime switching is spec...

  10. Empirical Model for Predicting Rate of Biogas Production | Adamu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rate of biogas production using cow manure as substrate was monitored in two laboratory scale batch reactors (13 liter and 108 liter capacities). Two empirical models based on the Gompertz and the modified logistic equations were used to fit the experimental data based on non-linear regression analysis using Solver tool ...

  11. Modeling sludge accumulation rates in lined pit latrines in slum ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Yvonne

    should include geo-physical characterization of soil and drainage of pit latrine sites so as ... Key words: Faecal, sludge accumulation rates, slum areas, lined pit latrines. .... Value and its unit Source .... overall quality of the models had to be assessed by validation on ..... Sanitation partnership series: Bringing pit emptying out.

  12. Sex ratio at birth and mortality rates are negatively related in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madhukar Shivajirao Dama

    Full Text Available Evolutionary theory posits that resource availability and parental investment ability could signal offspring sex selection, in order to maximize reproductive returns. Non-human studies have provided evidence for this phenomenon, and maternal condition around the time of conception has been identified as most important factor that influence offspring sex selection. However, studies on humans have reported inconsistent results, mostly due to use of disparate measures as indicators of maternal condition. In the present study, the cross-cultural differences in human natal sex ratio were analyzed with respect to indirect measures of condition namely, life expectancy and mortality rate. Multiple regression modeling suggested that mortality rates have distinct predictive power independent of cross-cultural differences in fertility, wealth and latitude that were earlier shown to predict sex ratio at birth. These findings suggest that sex ratio variation in humans may relate to differences in parental and environmental conditions.

  13. Essays on financial econometrics : modeling the term structure of interest rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwman, Kees Evert

    2008-01-01

    This dissertation bundles five studies in financial econometrics that are related to the theme of modeling the term structure of interest rates. The main contribution of this dissertation is a new arbitrage-free term structure model that is applied in an empirical analysis of the US term structure.

  14. Characterization of infiltration rates from landfills: supporting groundwater modeling efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moo-Young, Horace; Johnson, Barnes; Johnson, Ann; Carson, David; Lew, Christine; Liu, Salley; Hancocks, Katherine

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to review the literature to characterize infiltration rates from landfill liners to support groundwater modeling efforts. The focus of this investigation was on collecting studies that describe the performance of liners 'as installed' or 'as operated'. This document reviews the state of the science and practice on the infiltration rate through compacted clay liner (CCL) for 149 sites and geosynthetic clay liner (GCL) for 1 site. In addition, it reviews the leakage rate through geomembrane (GM) liners and composite liners for 259 sites. For compacted clay liners (CCL), there was limited information on infiltration rates (i.e., only 9 sites reported infiltration rates.), thus, it was difficult to develop a national distribution. The field hydraulic conductivities for natural clay liners range from 1 x 10(-9) cm s(-1) to 1 x 10(-4) cm s(-1), with an average of 6.5 x 10(-8) cm s(-1). There was limited information on geosynthetic clay liner. For composite lined and geomembrane systems, the leak detection system flow rates were utilized. The average monthly flow rate for composite liners ranged from 0-32 lphd for geomembrane and GCL systems to 0 to 1410 lphd for geomembrane and CCL systems. The increased infiltration for the geomembrane and CCL system may be attributed to consolidation water from the clay.

  15. A quasi-independence model to estimate failure rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, A.G.

    1988-01-01

    The use of a quasi-independence model to estimate failure rates is investigated. Gate valves of nuclear plants are considered, and two qualitative covariates are taken into account: plant location and reactor system. Independence between the two covariates and an exponential failure model are assumed. The failure rate of the components of a given system and plant is assumed to be a constant, but it may vary from one system to another and from one plant to another. This leads to the analysis of a contingency table. A particular feature of the model is the different operating time of the components in the various cells which can also be equal to zero. The concept of independence of the covariates is then replaced by that of quasi-independence. The latter definition, however, is used in a broader sense than usual. Suitable statistical tests are discussed and a numerical example illustrates the use of the method. (author)

  16. Effect of selection for relative growth rate and bodyweight of mice on rate, composition and efficiency of growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, H.

    1974-01-01

    To evaluate the effect of selection for parameters of a growth curve, four selection lines and a control line were started from one base population. In the selection lines is selected for a large and a small relative growth rate between 21 and 29 days (RGH and RGL) and for a large and

  17. Relative effect of dose-rate values and fractionation on late responding tissues and tumours

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malgieri, F.

    1995-01-01

    There are currently available different facilities for radiotherapy also with regard to the dose-rate values (in the ranges LDR - MDR - HDR), sometimes used alternatively or subsequently for the same tumour. We have set up a 'unitary' L-Q model, based on Liversage's and Dale's works, that explicitly include also the dose-rate value and a correction factor of the β parameter depending on the sublethal damage repair time constant, on the length of time of each irradiation and on the time interval between following irradiation for to realize the effect of the incomplete repair when the time interval is short as, for example, in the PLDR. This 'unitary' L-Q model is, of course, usable in the same way both for external beam therapy and for curietherapy and make possible to compute and compare, for each kind of tumour and normal tissue, the relative effect of the different available modality of radiotherapy also with regard to the dose-rate. We show and discuss the resulting relationships of the ratio BED 'late'/BED tumour changing the time-dose parameters and the values of the biological characteristic parameters T p , α/β and μ, for defined size of tumour control and different value of the doserate

  18. Leaching of radionuclides from decaying blueberry leaves: Relative rate independent of concentration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheppard, S.C.; Evenden, W.G.

    1990-01-01

    Leaching of radionuclides from decaying vegetation has not been extensively investigated, especially for radionuclides other than 137 Cs. The authors obtained leaves of blueberry (Vaccinium angustifolium x V. corymbosum) that contained over 25-fold ranges in Se, Cs, and I concentrations, as well as a small quantity of leaves containing detectable U. All were contaminated by way of root uptake. Leaching took place for a period of 1 yr in the laboratory, using leach water from forest litter. Monthly, measurements were made of the radionuclide contents and decaying leaf dry weights. The data conformed to an exponential decay model with two first-order components. In no case did the relative loss rates vary systematically with the initial tissue radionuclide concentrations. Loss rates decreased in the order Cs > I > U > dry wt. > Se. Because of the low leaching rate of Se relative to the loss of dry weight, decaying litter may actually accumulate elements such as Se. Accumulation of radionuclides in litter could have important implications for lateral transport, recycling, and direct incorporation into edible mushrooms

  19. Leaching of radionuclides from decaying blueberry leaves: Relative rate independent of concentration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheppard, S.C.; Evenden, W.G. (Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., Pinawa, Manitoba (Canada))

    Leaching of radionuclides from decaying vegetation has not been extensively investigated, especially for radionuclides other than {sup 137}Cs. The authors obtained leaves of blueberry (Vaccinium angustifolium {times} V. corymbosum) that contained over 25-fold ranges in Se, Cs, and I concentrations, as well as a small quantity of leaves containing detectable U. All were contaminated by way of root uptake. Leaching took place for a period of 1 yr in the laboratory, using leach water from forest litter. Monthly, measurements were made of the radionuclide contents and decaying leaf dry weights. The data conformed to an exponential decay model with two first-order components. In no case did the relative loss rates vary systematically with the initial tissue radionuclide concentrations. Loss rates decreased in the order Cs > I > U > dry wt. > Se. Because of the low leaching rate of Se relative to the loss of dry weight, decaying litter may actually accumulate elements such as Se. Accumulation of radionuclides in litter could have important implications for lateral transport, recycling, and direct incorporation into edible mushrooms.

  20. Modeling emission rates and exposures from outdoor cooking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Rufus; Princevac, Marko; Weltman, Robert; Ghasemian, Masoud; Arora, Narendra K.; Bond, Tami

    2017-09-01

    Approximately 3 billion individuals rely on solid fuels for cooking globally. For a large portion of these - an estimated 533 million - cooking is outdoors, where emissions from cookstoves pose a health risk to both cooks and other household and village members. Models that estimate emissions rates from stoves in indoor environments that would meet WHO air quality guidelines (AQG), explicitly don't account for outdoor cooking. The objectives of this paper are to link health based exposure guidelines with emissions from outdoor cookstoves, using a Monte Carlo simulation of cooking times from Haryana India coupled with inverse Gaussian dispersion models. Mean emission rates for outdoor cooking that would result in incremental increases in personal exposure equivalent to the WHO AQG during a 24-h period were 126 ± 13 mg/min for cooking while squatting and 99 ± 10 mg/min while standing. Emission rates modeled for outdoor cooking are substantially higher than emission rates for indoor cooking to meet AQG, because the models estimate impact of emissions on personal exposure concentrations rather than microenvironment concentrations, and because the smoke disperses more readily outdoors compared to indoor environments. As a result, many more stoves including the best performing solid-fuel biomass stoves would meet AQG when cooking outdoors, but may also result in substantial localized neighborhood pollution depending on housing density. Inclusion of the neighborhood impact of pollution should be addressed more formally both in guidelines on emissions rates from stoves that would be protective of health, and also in wider health impact evaluation efforts and burden of disease estimates. Emissions guidelines should better represent the different contexts in which stoves are being used, especially because in these contexts the best performing solid fuel stoves have the potential to provide significant benefits.

  1. The fusion rate in the transmission resonance model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaendel, M.

    1992-01-01

    Resonant transmission of deuterons through a chain of target deuterons in a metal matrix has been suggested as an explanation for the cold fusion phenomena. In this paper the fusion rate in such transmission resonance models is estimated, and the basic physical constraints are discussed. The dominating contribution to the fusion yield is found to come from metastable states. The fusion rate is well described by the Wentzel-Kramer-Brillouin approximation and appears to be much too small to explain the experimental anomalies

  2. Regression Models and Fuzzy Logic Prediction of TBM Penetration Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minh Vu Trieu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents statistical analyses of rock engineering properties and the measured penetration rate of tunnel boring machine (TBM based on the data of an actual project. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of rock engineering properties including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS, Brazilian tensile strength (BTS, rock brittleness index (BI, the distance between planes of weakness (DPW, and the alpha angle (Alpha between the tunnel axis and the planes of weakness on the TBM rate of penetration (ROP. Four (4 statistical regression models (two linear and two nonlinear are built to predict the ROP of TBM. Finally a fuzzy logic model is developed as an alternative method and compared to the four statistical regression models. Results show that the fuzzy logic model provides better estimations and can be applied to predict the TBM performance. The R-squared value (R2 of the fuzzy logic model scores the highest value of 0.714 over the second runner-up of 0.667 from the multiple variables nonlinear regression model.

  3. Regression Models and Fuzzy Logic Prediction of TBM Penetration Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minh, Vu Trieu; Katushin, Dmitri; Antonov, Maksim; Veinthal, Renno

    2017-03-01

    This paper presents statistical analyses of rock engineering properties and the measured penetration rate of tunnel boring machine (TBM) based on the data of an actual project. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of rock engineering properties including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile strength (BTS), rock brittleness index (BI), the distance between planes of weakness (DPW), and the alpha angle (Alpha) between the tunnel axis and the planes of weakness on the TBM rate of penetration (ROP). Four (4) statistical regression models (two linear and two nonlinear) are built to predict the ROP of TBM. Finally a fuzzy logic model is developed as an alternative method and compared to the four statistical regression models. Results show that the fuzzy logic model provides better estimations and can be applied to predict the TBM performance. The R-squared value (R2) of the fuzzy logic model scores the highest value of 0.714 over the second runner-up of 0.667 from the multiple variables nonlinear regression model.

  4. Chaotic Lagrangian models for turbulent relative dispersion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacorata, Guglielmo; Vulpiani, Angelo

    2017-04-01

    A deterministic multiscale dynamical system is introduced and discussed as a prototype model for relative dispersion in stationary, homogeneous, and isotropic turbulence. Unlike stochastic diffusion models, here trajectory transport and mixing properties are entirely controlled by Lagrangian chaos. The anomalous "sweeping effect," a known drawback common to kinematic simulations, is removed through the use of quasi-Lagrangian coordinates. Lagrangian dispersion statistics of the model are accurately analyzed by computing the finite-scale Lyapunov exponent (FSLE), which is the optimal measure of the scaling properties of dispersion. FSLE scaling exponents provide a severe test to decide whether model simulations are in agreement with theoretical expectations and/or observation. The results of our numerical experiments cover a wide range of "Reynolds numbers" and show that chaotic deterministic flows can be very efficient, and numerically low-cost, models of turbulent trajectories in stationary, homogeneous, and isotropic conditions. The mathematics of the model is relatively simple, and, in a geophysical context, potential applications may regard small-scale parametrization issues in general circulation models, mixed layer, and/or boundary layer turbulence models as well as Lagrangian predictability studies.

  5. Modified Dugdale crack models - some easy crack relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lauge Fuglsang

    1997-01-01

    the same strength as a plain Dugdale model. The critical energy release rates Gamma_CR, however, become different. Expressions (with easy computer algorithms) are presented in the paper which relate critical energy release rates and crack geometry to arbitrary cohesive stress distributions.For future...... lifetime analysis of viscoelastic materials strain energy release rates, crack geometries, and cohesive stress distributions are considered as related to sub-critical loads sigma stress-deformation tests......The Dugdale crack model is widely used in materials science to predict strength of defective (cracked) materials. A stable Dugdale crack in an elasto-plastic material is prevented from spreading by uniformly distributed cohesive stresses acting in narrow areas at the crack tips. These stresses...

  6. Rates of TBI-related Deaths by Age Group - United States, 2001 - 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Changes in the rates of TBI-related deaths vary depending on age. For persons 44 years of age and younger, TBI-related deaths decreased between the periods of...

  7. Relative influence of age, resting heart rate and sedentary life style in short-term analysis of heart rate variability

    OpenAIRE

    E.R. Migliaro; P. Contreras; S. Bech; A. Etxagibel; M. Castro; R. Ricca; K. Vicente

    2001-01-01

    In order to assess the relative influence of age, resting heart rate (HR) and sedentary life style, heart rate variability (HRV) was studied in two different groups. The young group (YG) consisted of 9 sedentary subjects aged 15 to 20 years (YG-S) and of 9 nonsedentary volunteers (YG-NS) also aged 15 to 20. The elderly sedentary group (ESG) consisted of 16 sedentary subjects aged 39 to 82 years. HRV was assessed using a short-term procedure (5 min). R-R variability was calculated in the time-...

  8. Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

  9. A Numerical Study of Water Loss Rate Distributions in MDCT-based Human Airway Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Dan; Miyawaki, Shinjiro; Tawhai, Merryn H.; Hoffman, Eric A.; Lin, Ching-Long

    2015-01-01

    Both three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods are applied to study regional water loss in three multi-detector row computed-tomography (MDCT)-based human airway models at the minute ventilations of 6, 15 and 30 L/min. The overall water losses predicted by both 3D and 1D models in the entire respiratory tract agree with available experimental measurements. However, 3D and 1D models reveal different regional water loss rate distributions due to the 3D secondary flows formed at bifurcations. The secondary flows cause local skewed temperature and humidity distributions on inspiration acting to elevate the local water loss rate; and the secondary flow at the carina tends to distribute more cold air to the lower lobes. As a result, the 3D model predicts that the water loss rate first increases with increasing airway generation, and then decreases as the air approaches saturation, while the 1D model predicts a monotonic decrease of water loss rate with increasing airway generation. Moreover, the 3D (or 1D) model predicts relatively higher water loss rates in lower (or upper) lobes. The regional water loss rate can be related to the non-dimensional wall shear stress (τ*) by the non-dimensional mass transfer coefficient (h0*) as h0* = 1.15 τ*0.272, R = 0.842. PMID:25869455

  10. Modeling of Bit Error Rate in Cascaded 2R Regenerators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Öhman, Filip; Mørk, Jesper

    2006-01-01

    and the regenerating nonlinearity is investigated. It is shown that an increase in nonlinearity can compensate for an increase in noise figure or decrease in signal power. Furthermore, the influence of the improvement in signal extinction ratio along the cascade and the importance of choosing the proper threshold......This paper presents a simple and efficient model for estimating the bit error rate in a cascade of optical 2R-regenerators. The model includes the influences of of amplifier noise, finite extinction ratio and nonlinear reshaping. The interplay between the different signal impairments...

  11. An SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Yu; Wang, Wendi; Xiao Shiwu

    2007-01-01

    The global dynamics of an SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. We establish a threshold for a disease to be extinct or endemic, analyze the existence and asymptotic stability of equilibria, and verify the existence of bistable states, i.e., a stable disease free equilibrium and a stable endemic equilibrium or a stable limit cycle. In particular, we find that the model admits stability switches as a parameter changes. We also investigate the backward bifurcation, the Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation and obtain the Hopf bifurcation criteria and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation curves, which are important for making strategies for controlling a disease

  12. Malaria model with periodic mosquito birth and death rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dembele, Bassidy; Friedman, Avner; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

    2009-07-01

    In this paper, we introduce a model of malaria, a disease that involves a complex life cycle of parasites, requiring both human and mosquito hosts. The novelty of the model is the introduction of periodic coefficients into the system of one-dimensional equations, which account for the seasonal variations (wet and dry seasons) in the mosquito birth and death rates. We define a basic reproduction number R(0) that depends on the periodic coefficients and prove that if R(0)1 then the disease is endemic and may even be periodic.

  13. Mechanical Models of Fault-Related Folding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, A. M.

    2003-01-09

    The subject of the proposed research is fault-related folding and ground deformation. The results are relevant to oil-producing structures throughout the world, to understanding of damage that has been observed along and near earthquake ruptures, and to earthquake-producing structures in California and other tectonically-active areas. The objectives of the proposed research were to provide both a unified, mechanical infrastructure for studies of fault-related foldings and to present the results in computer programs that have graphical users interfaces (GUIs) so that structural geologists and geophysicists can model a wide variety of fault-related folds (FaRFs).

  14. A Comparison of Moment Rates for the Eastern Mediterranean Region from Competitive Kinematic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, E. C.; Ozeren, M. S.; Shen-Tu, B.; Galgana, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Relatively continuous, complex, and long-lived episodes of tectonic deformation gradually shaped the lithosphere of the eastern Mediterranean region into its present state. This large geodynamically interconnected and seismically active region absorbs, accumulates and transmits strains arising from stresses associated with: (1) steady northward convergence of the Arabian and African plates; (2) differences in lithospheric gravitational potential energy; and (3) basal tractions exerted by subduction along the Hellenic and Cyprus Arcs. Over the last twenty years, numerous kinematic models have been built using a variety of assumptions to take advantage of the extensive and dense GPS observations made across the entire region resulting in a far better characterization of the neotectonic deformation field than ever previously achieved. In this study, three separate horizontal strain rate field solutions obtained from three, region-wide, GPS only based kinematic models (i.e., a regional block model, a regional continuum model, and global continuum model) are utilized to estimate the distribution and uncertainty of geodetic moment rates within the eastern Mediterranean region. The geodetic moment rates from each model are also compared with seismic moment release rates gleaned from historic earthquake data. Moreover, kinematic styles of deformation derived from each of the modeled horizontal strain rate fields are examined for their degree of correlation with earthquake rupture styles defined by proximal centroid moment tensor solutions. This study suggests that significant differences in geodetically obtained moment rates from competitive kinematic models may introduce unforeseen bias into regularly updated, geodetically constrained, regional seismic hazard assessments.

  15. Calculus in Your Career: Putting the "Relate" Back in Related Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lommatsch, Christina W.

    2017-01-01

    "Find the extreme values of the function." "At what rate is the distance between A and B increasing after 12 seconds?" Prompts like these can be heard in most first-semester calculus courses. Unfortunately, these cues also tend to prompt students' eyes to glaze over with thoughts of "When will I ever use this?" This…

  16. Radionuclide release rates from spent fuel for performance assessment modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curtis, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    In a scenario of aqueous transport from a high-level radioactive waste repository, the concentration of radionuclides in water in contact with the waste constitutes the source term for transport models, and as such represents a fundamental component of all performance assessment models. Many laboratory experiments have been done to characterize release rates and understand processes influencing radionuclide release rates from irradiated nuclear fuel. Natural analogues of these waste forms have been studied to obtain information regarding the long-term stability of potential waste forms in complex natural systems. This information from diverse sources must be brought together to develop and defend methods used to define source terms for performance assessment models. In this manuscript examples of measures of radionuclide release rates from spent nuclear fuel or analogues of nuclear fuel are presented. Each example represents a very different approach to obtaining a numerical measure and each has its limitations. There is no way to obtain an unambiguous measure of this or any parameter used in performance assessment codes for evaluating the effects of processes operative over many millennia. The examples are intended to suggest by example that in the absence of the ability to evaluate accuracy and precision, consistency of a broadly based set of data can be used as circumstantial evidence to defend the choice of parameters used in performance assessments

  17. Market Microstructure Model: study of variations of exchange rate for Asia and Latin America

    OpenAIRE

    Lima, Antonieta; Salazar Soares , Vasco

    2008-01-01

    The paper studies the commercial relations between Europe and its principal commercial partners, such as Asia and Latin America, for the period of 1999 to 2007. The methodology appeals to the correlation analysis of the variables of the model and the autocorrelation of the exchange rate variation variable, to the Augmented DickeyFuller (1979) and Philips Perron tests (1988), and finally, to the market microstructure model suggested by Medeiros(2005). Medeiros(2005) model, when applied to the ...

  18. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2003-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems, on

  19. Incidence and progression rates of age-related maculopathy: the Rotterdam Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.J.M. Willemse-Assink (Jacqueline); R. van Leeuwen (Redmer); R.C.W. Wolfs (Roger); J.R. Vingerling (Hans); Th. Stijnen (Theo); P.T.V.M. de Jong (Paulus); C.C.W. Klaver (Caroline); A. Hofman (Albert)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractPURPOSE: To describe the incidence rate of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and the progression rates of early stages of age-related maculopathy (ARM), and to study the hierarchy of fundus features that determine progression. METHODS: A group of 4953 subjects

  20. Relating Derived Relations as a Model of Analogical Reasoning: Reaction Times and Event-Related Potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes-Holmes, Dermot; Regan, Donal; Barnes-Holmes, Yvonne; Commins, Sean; Walsh, Derek; Stewart, Ian; Smeets, Paul M.; Whelan, Robert; Dymond, Simon

    2005-01-01

    The current study aimed to test a Relational Frame Theory (RFT) model of analogical reasoning based on the relating of derived same and derived difference relations. Experiment 1 recorded reaction time measures of similar-similar (e.g., "apple is to orange as dog is to cat") versus different-different (e.g., "he is to his brother as…

  1. Tantalum strength model incorporating temperature, strain rate and pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Hojun; Battaile, Corbett; Brown, Justin; Lane, Matt

    Tantalum is a body-centered-cubic (BCC) refractory metal that is widely used in many applications in high temperature, strain rate and pressure environments. In this work, we propose a physically-based strength model for tantalum that incorporates effects of temperature, strain rate and pressure. A constitutive model for single crystal tantalum is developed based on dislocation kink-pair theory, and calibrated to measurements on single crystal specimens. The model is then used to predict deformations of single- and polycrystalline tantalum. In addition, the proposed strength model is implemented into Sandia's ALEGRA solid dynamics code to predict plastic deformations of tantalum in engineering-scale applications at extreme conditions, e.g. Taylor impact tests and Z machine's high pressure ramp compression tests, and the results are compared with available experimental data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  2. Rate-Based Model Predictive Control of Turbofan Engine Clearance

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeCastro, Jonathan A.

    2006-01-01

    An innovative model predictive control strategy is developed for control of nonlinear aircraft propulsion systems and sub-systems. At the heart of the controller is a rate-based linear parameter-varying model that propagates the state derivatives across the prediction horizon, extending prediction fidelity to transient regimes where conventional models begin to lose validity. The new control law is applied to a demanding active clearance control application, where the objectives are to tightly regulate blade tip clearances and also anticipate and avoid detrimental blade-shroud rub occurrences by optimally maintaining a predefined minimum clearance. Simulation results verify that the rate-based controller is capable of satisfying the objectives during realistic flight scenarios where both a conventional Jacobian-based model predictive control law and an unconstrained linear-quadratic optimal controller are incapable of doing so. The controller is evaluated using a variety of different actuators, illustrating the efficacy and versatility of the control approach. It is concluded that the new strategy has promise for this and other nonlinear aerospace applications that place high importance on the attainment of control objectives during transient regimes.

  3. Autonomic responses to heat pain: Heart rate, skin conductance, and their relation to verbal ratings and stimulus intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loggia, Marco L; Juneau, Mylène; Bushnell, M Catherine

    2011-03-01

    In human pain experiments, as well as in clinical settings, subjects are often asked to assess pain using scales (eg, numeric rating scales). Although most subjects have little difficulty in using these tools, some lack the necessary basic cognitive or motor skills (eg, paralyzed patients). Thus, the identification of appropriate nonverbal measures of pain has significant clinical relevance. In this study, we assessed heart rate (HR), skin conductance (SC), and verbal ratings in 39 healthy male subjects during the application of twelve 6-s heat stimuli of different intensities on the subjects' left forearm. Both HR and SC increased with more intense painful stimulation. However, HR but not SC, significantly correlated with pain ratings at the group level, suggesting that HR may be a better predictor of between-subject differences in pain than is SC. Conversely, changes in SC better predicted variations in ratings within a given individual, suggesting that it is more sensitive to relative changes in perception. The differences in findings derived from between- and within-subject analyses may result from greater within-subject variability in HR. We conclude that at least for male subjects, HR provides a better predictor of pain perception than SC, but that data should be averaged over several stimulus presentations to achieve consistent results. Nevertheless, variability among studies, and the indication that gender of both the subject and experimenter could influence autonomic results, lead us to advise caution in using autonomic or any other surrogate measures to infer pain in individuals who cannot adequately report their perception. Skin conductance is more sensitive to detect within-subject perceptual changes, but heart rate appears to better predict pain ratings at the group level. Copyright © 2010 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. On diffusion processes with variable drift rates as models for decision making during learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eckhoff, P; Holmes, P; Law, C; Connolly, P M; Gold, J I

    2008-01-01

    We investigate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and diffusion processes with variable drift rates as models of evidence accumulation in a visual discrimination task. We derive power-law and exponential drift-rate models and characterize how parameters of these models affect the psychometric function describing performance accuracy as a function of stimulus strength and viewing time. We fit the models to psychophysical data from monkeys learning the task to identify parameters that best capture performance as it improves with training. The most informative parameter was the overall drift rate describing the signal-to-noise ratio of the sensory evidence used to form the decision, which increased steadily with training. In contrast, secondary parameters describing the time course of the drift during motion viewing did not exhibit steady trends. The results indicate that relatively simple versions of the diffusion model can fit behavior over the course of training, thereby giving a quantitative account of learning effects on the underlying decision process

  5. A Computational Study on the Relation between Resting Heart Rate and Atrial Fibrillation Hemodynamics under Exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anselmino, Matteo; Scarsoglio, Stefania; Saglietto, Andrea; Gaita, Fiorenzo; Ridolfi, Luca

    2017-01-01

    Clinical data indicating a heart rate (HR) target during rate control therapy for permanent atrial fibrillation (AF) and assessing its eventual relationship with reduced exercise tolerance are lacking. The present study aims at investigating the impact of resting HR on the hemodynamic response to exercise in permanent AF patients by means of a computational cardiovascular model. The AF lumped-parameter model was run to simulate resting (1 Metabolic Equivalent of Task-MET) and various exercise conditions (4 METs: brisk walking; 6 METs: skiing; 8 METs: running), considering different resting HR (70 bpm for the slower resting HR-SHR-simulations, and 100 bpm for the higher resting HR-HHR-simulations). To compare relative variations of cardiovascular variables upon exertion, the variation comparative index (VCI)-the absolute variation between the exercise and the resting values in SHR simulations referred to the absolute variation in HHR simulations-was calculated at each exercise grade (VCI4, VCI6 and VCI8). Pulmonary venous pressure underwent a greater increase in HHR compared to SHR simulations (VCI4 = 0.71, VCI6 = 0.73 and VCI8 = 0.77), while for systemic arterial pressure the opposite is true (VCI4 = 1.15, VCI6 = 1.36, VCI8 = 1.56). The computational findings suggest that a slower, with respect to a higher resting HR, might be preferable in permanent AF patients, since during exercise pulmonary venous pressure undergoes a slighter increase and systemic blood pressure reveals a more appropriate increase.

  6. Seasonal Variations of Indoor Microbial Exposures and Their Relation to Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Air Exchange Rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frankel, Mika; Bekö, Gabriel; Timm, Michael

    2012-01-01

    with temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates in Danish homes. Airborne inhalable dust was sampled in five Danish homes throughout the four seasons of 1 year (indoors, n = 127; outdoors, n = 37). Measurements included culturable fungi and bacteria, endotoxin, N-acetyl-beta-d-glucosaminidase, total...... inflammatory potential, particles (0.75 to 15 μm), temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates. Significant seasonal variation was found for all indoor microbial exposures, excluding endotoxin. Indoor fungi peaked in summer (median, 235 CFU/m3) and were lowest in winter (median, 26 CFU/m3). Indoor...... of inhalable dust and number of particles. Temperature and air exchange rates were positively associated with fungi and N-acetyl-beta-d-glucosaminidase and negatively with bacteria and the total inflammatory potential. Although temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates were significantly...

  7. Bayes estimation of the general hazard rate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarhan, A.

    1999-01-01

    In reliability theory and life testing models, the life time distributions are often specified by choosing a relevant hazard rate function. Here a general hazard rate function h(t)=a+bt c-1 , where c, a, b are constants greater than zero, is considered. The parameter c is assumed to be known. The Bayes estimators of (a,b) based on the data of type II/item-censored testing without replacement are obtained. A large simulation study using Monte Carlo Method is done to compare the performance of Bayes with regression estimators of (a,b). The criterion for comparison is made based on the Bayes risk associated with the respective estimator. Also, the influence of the number of failed items on the accuracy of the estimators (Bayes and regression) is investigated. Estimations for the parameters (a,b) of the linearly increasing hazard rate model h(t)=a+bt, where a, b are greater than zero, can be obtained as the special case, letting c=2

  8. Animal models of age related macular degeneration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennesi, Mark E.; Neuringer, Martha; Courtney, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of vision loss of those over the age of 65 in the industrialized world. The prevalence and need to develop effective treatments for AMD has lead to the development of multiple animal models. AMD is a complex and heterogeneous disease that involves the interaction of both genetic and environmental factors with the unique anatomy of the human macula. Models in mice, rats, rabbits, pigs and non-human primates have recreated many of the histological features of AMD and provided much insight into the underlying pathological mechanisms of this disease. In spite of the large number of models developed, no one model yet recapitulates all of the features of human AMD. However, these models have helped reveal the roles of chronic oxidative damage, inflammation and immune dysregulation, and lipid metabolism in the development of AMD. Models for induced choroidal neovascularization have served as the backbone for testing new therapies. This article will review the diversity of animal models that exist for AMD as well as their strengths and limitations. PMID:22705444

  9. Spallation model for the high strain rates range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekel, E.; Eliezer, S.; Henis, Z.; Moshe, E.; Ludmirsky, A.; Goldberg, I. B.

    1998-11-01

    Measurements of the dynamic spall strength in aluminum and copper shocked by a high power laser to pressures of hundreds of kbars show a rapid increase in the spall strength with the strain rate at values of about 107 s-1. We suggest that this behavior is a result of a change in the spall mechanism. At low strain rates the spall is caused by the motion and coalescence of material's initial flaws. At high strain rates there is not enough time for the flaws to move and the spall is produced by the formation and coalescence of additional cavities where the interatomic forces become dominant. Material under tensile stress is in a metastable condition and cavities of a critical radius are formed in it due to thermal fluctuations. These cavities grow due to the tension. The total volume of the voids grow until the material disintegrates at the spall plane. Simplified calculations based on this model, describing the metal as a viscous liquid, give results in fairly good agreement with the experimental data and predict the increase in spall strength at high strain rates.

  10. Modelling the bioconversion of cellulose into microbial products: rate limitations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asenjo, J A

    1984-12-01

    The direct bioconversion of cellulose into microbial products carried out as a simultaneous saccharification and fermentation has a strong effect on the rates of cellulose degradation because cellobiose and glucose inhibition of the reaction are circumvented. A general mathematical model of the kinetics of this bioconversion has been developed. Its use in representing aerobic systems and in the analysis of the kinetic limitations has been investigated. Simulations have been carried out to find the rate limiting steps in slow fermentations and in rapid ones as determined by the specific rate of product formation. The requirements for solubilising and depolymerising enzyme activities (cellulase and cellobiase) in these systems has been determined. The activity that have been obtained for fungal cellulases are adequate for the kinetic requirements of the fastest fermentative strains. The results also show that for simultaneous bioconversions where strong cellobiose and glucose inhibition is overcome, no additional cellobiase is necessary to increase the rate of product formation. These results are useful for the selection of cellolytic micro-organisms and in the determination of enzymes to be cloned in recombinant strains. 17 references.

  11. Stochastic model of microcredit interest rate in Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghita Bennouna

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Access to microcredit can have a beneficial effect on the well-being of low-income households excluded from the traditional banking system. It allows this population to receive affordable financial services to help them to meet their needs and to improve their living conditions. However to provide access to credit, microfinance institutions should ensure not only their social mission but also commercial and financial mission to enable the institution to perpetuate and become self-sufficient. To this end, MFIs (microfinance institutions must apply an interest rate that covers their costs and risk, while generating profits, Also microentrepreneurs need, to this end, to ensure the profitability of their activities. This paper presents the microfinance sector in Morocco. It focuses then on the interest rate applied by the Moroccan microfinance institutions; it provides also a comparative study between Morocco and other comparable countries in terms of interest rates charged to borrowers. Finally, this article presents a stochastic model of the interest rate in microcredit built in random loan repayment periods and on a real example of the program of loans of microfinance institution in Morocco

  12. Judges' perception of candidates' organization and communication, in relation to oral certification examination ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houston, James E; Myford, Carol M

    2009-11-01

    To determine (1) whether judges differed in the levels of severity they exercised when rating candidates' performance in an oral certification exam, (2) to what extent candidates' clinical competence ratings were related to their organization/communication ratings, and (3) to what extent clinical competence ratings could predict organization/communication ratings. Six hundred eighty-four physicians participated in a medical specialty board's 2002 oral examination. Ninety-nine senior members of the medical specialty served as judges, rating candidates' performances. Candidates' clinical competence ratings were analyzed using multifaceted Rasch measurement to investigate judge severity. A Pearson correlation was calculated to examine the relationship between ratings of clinical competence and organization/communication. Logistic regression was used to determine to what extent clinical competence ratings predicted organization/communication ratings. There were about three statistically distinct strata of judge severity; judges were not interchangeable. There was a moderately strong relationship between the two sets of candidate ratings. Higher clinical competence ratings were associated with an organization/communication rating of acceptable, whereas lower clinical competence ratings were associated with an organization/communication rating of unacceptable. The judges' clinical competence ratings correctly predicted 61.9% of the acceptable and 88.3% of the unacceptable organization/communication ratings. Overall, the clinical competence ratings correctly predicted 80% of the organization/communication ratings. The close association between the two sets of ratings was possibly due to a "halo" effect. Several explanations for this relationship were explored, and the authors considered the implications for their understanding of how judges carry out this complex rating task.

  13. Forecasting the mortality rates using Lee-Carter model and Heligman-Pollard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, R. I.; Ngataman, N.; Abrisam, W. N. A. Wan Mohd

    2017-09-01

    Improvement in life expectancies has driven further declines in mortality. The sustained reduction in mortality rates and its systematic underestimation has been attracting the significant interest of researchers in recent years because of its potential impact on population size and structure, social security systems, and (from an actuarial perspective) the life insurance and pensions industry worldwide. Among all forecasting methods, the Lee-Carter model has been widely accepted by the actuarial community and Heligman-Pollard model has been widely used by researchers in modelling and forecasting future mortality. Therefore, this paper only focuses on Lee-Carter model and Heligman-Pollard model. The main objective of this paper is to investigate how accurately these two models will perform using Malaysian data. Since these models involves nonlinear equations that are explicitly difficult to solve, the Matrix Laboratory Version 8.0 (MATLAB 8.0) software will be used to estimate the parameters of the models. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) procedure is applied to acquire the forecasted parameters for both models as the forecasted mortality rates are obtained by using all the values of forecasted parameters. To investigate the accuracy of the estimation, the forecasted results will be compared against actual data of mortality rates. The results indicate that both models provide better results for male population. However, for the elderly female population, Heligman-Pollard model seems to underestimate to the mortality rates while Lee-Carter model seems to overestimate to the mortality rates.

  14. Modelling Counterparty Credit Risk in Czech Interest Rate Swaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenka Křivánková

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the Basel Committee’s estimate, three quarters of counterparty credit risk losses during the financial crisis in 2008 originate from credit valuation adjustment’s losses and not from actual defaults. Therefore, from 2015, the Third Basel Accord (EU, 2013a and (EU, 2013b instructed banks to calculate the capital requirement for the risk of credit valuation adjustment (CVA. Banks are trying to model CVA to hold the prescribed standards and also reach the lowest possible impact on their profit. In this paper, we try to model CVA using methods that are in compliance with the prescribed standards and also achieve the smallest possible impact on the bank’s earnings. To do so, a data set of interest rate swaps from 2015 is used. The interest rate term structure is simulated using the Hull-White one-factor model and Monte Carlo methods. Then, the probability of default for each counterparty is constructed. A safe level of CVA is reached in spite of the calculated the CVA achieving a lower level than CVA previously used by the bank. This allows a reduction of capital requirements for banks.

  15. Long Term Validity of Monetary Exchange Rate Model: Evidence from Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugur Ahmet

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it was analyzed if there is a long term relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals within the periods of 1998:1-2011:2 in Turkey. This relationship has been analysed by using structural VAR (SVAR model. Besides, Granger causality test and Dolado-Lütkepohl Granger causality test were used to determine if there were a causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals. As a result of the SVAR model, the relationship among the series related to nominal exchange rate and money supply, GDP, interest rate in Turkey in long term were not determined and at the end of causality tests, causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals were not determined.

  16. Constitutive relations for multiphase flow modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacobs, H.; Vaeth, L.; Thurnay, K. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH Technik und Umwelt (Germany). Inst. fuer Neutronenphysik und Reaktortechnik

    1998-01-01

    The constitutive relations that are used in the three-field fluid dynamics code IVA-KA for determining the drag in three-phase mixtures and the heat transferred by radiation are described together with some comparisons of calculational results with experiments. In these experiments (QUEOS), large quantities of solid particles are injected into water. Potential deficiencies of the present drag model are discussed. (author)

  17. An interval-valued reliability model with bounded failure rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozine, Igor; Krymsky, Victor

    2012-01-01

    The approach to deriving interval-valued reliability measures described in this paper is distinctive from other imprecise reliability models in that it overcomes the issue of having to impose an upper bound on time to failure. It rests on the presupposition that a constant interval-valued failure...... rate is known possibly along with other reliability measures, precise or imprecise. The Lagrange method is used to solve the constrained optimization problem to derive new reliability measures of interest. The obtained results call for an exponential-wise approximation of failure probability density...

  18. An Optimal Commitment Model of Exchange Rate Stabilization

    OpenAIRE

    Kyung-Soo Kim

    2006-01-01

    Recently East Asian countries that have amassed large US dollar reserves face a growing threat of big losses from a sudden decline in the dollar. This threat evokes an issue of the optimal commitment of exchange rate stabilization once raised by Isard (1995) who interpreted the cost of breaking the parity as the capital gain awarded to speculators, in the event the domestic currency is devalued. The only difference in this paper is revaluation. This paper models the central bank��s optima...

  19. Building a better methane generation model: Validating models with methane recovery rates from 35 Canadian landfills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Shirley; Sawyer, Jennifer; Bonam, Rathan; Valdivia, J E

    2009-07-01

    The German EPER, TNO, Belgium, LandGEM, and Scholl Canyon models for estimating methane production were compared to methane recovery rates for 35 Canadian landfills, assuming that 20% of emissions were not recovered. Two different fractions of degradable organic carbon (DOC(f)) were applied in all models. Most models performed better when the DOC(f) was 0.5 compared to 0.77. The Belgium, Scholl Canyon, and LandGEM version 2.01 models produced the best results of the existing models with respective mean absolute errors compared to methane generation rates (recovery rates + 20%) of 91%, 71%, and 89% at 0.50 DOC(f) and 171%, 115%, and 81% at 0.77 DOC(f). The Scholl Canyon model typically overestimated methane recovery rates and the LandGEM version 2.01 model, which modifies the Scholl Canyon model by dividing waste by 10, consistently underestimated methane recovery rates; this comparison suggested that modifying the divisor for waste in the Scholl Canyon model between one and ten could improve its accuracy. At 0.50 DOC(f) and 0.77 DOC(f) the modified model had the lowest absolute mean error when divided by 1.5 yielding 63 +/- 45% and 2.3 yielding 57 +/- 47%, respectively. These modified models reduced error and variability substantially and both have a strong correlation of r = 0.92.

  20. Salt marsh stability modelled in relation to sea level rise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartholdy, Jesper; Bartholdy, Anders; Kroon, Aart

    2010-01-01

    thickness. Autocompaction was incorporated in the model, and shown to play a major role for the translation of accretion rates measured as length per unit time to accumulation rates measured as mass per area per unit time. This is important, even for shallow salt marsh deposits for which it is demonstrated...... that mass depth down core can be directly related to the bulk dry density of the surface layer by means of a logarithmic function. The results allow for an evaluation of the use of marker horizons in the topmost layers and show that it is important to know the level of the marker in relation to the salt...... marsh base. In general, deeper located markers will indicate successively smaller accretion rates with the same sediment input. Thus, stability analysis made on the basis of newly established marker horizons will be biased and indicate salt marsh stabilities far above the correct level. Running...

  1. Kalman Filter or VAR Models to Predict Unemployment Rate in Romania?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simionescu Mihaela

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper brings to light an economic problem that frequently appears in practice: For the same variable, more alternative forecasts are proposed, yet the decision-making process requires the use of a single prediction. Therefore, a forecast assessment is necessary to select the best prediction. The aim of this research is to propose some strategies for improving the unemployment rate forecast in Romania by conducting a comparative accuracy analysis of unemployment rate forecasts based on two quantitative methods: Kalman filter and vector-auto-regressive (VAR models. The first method considers the evolution of unemployment components, while the VAR model takes into account the interdependencies between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. According to the Granger causality test, the inflation rate in the first difference is a cause of the unemployment rate in the first difference, these data sets being stationary. For the unemployment rate forecasts for 2010-2012 in Romania, the VAR models (in all variants of VAR simulations determined more accurate predictions than Kalman filter based on two state space models for all accuracy measures. According to mean absolute scaled error, the dynamic-stochastic simulations used in predicting unemployment based on the VAR model are the most accurate. Another strategy for improving the initial forecasts based on the Kalman filter used the adjusted unemployment data transformed by the application of the Hodrick-Prescott filter. However, the use of VAR models rather than different variants of the Kalman filter methods remains the best strategy in improving the quality of the unemployment rate forecast in Romania. The explanation of these results is related to the fact that the interaction of unemployment with inflation provides useful information for predictions of the evolution of unemployment related to its components (i.e., natural unemployment and cyclical component.

  2. Linear rate-equilibrium relations arising from ion channel-bilayer energetic coupling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greisen, Per Junior; Lum, Kevin; Ashrafuzzaman, Md

    2011-01-01

    Linear rate-equilibrium (RE) relations, also known as linear free energy relations, are widely observed in chemical reactions, including protein folding, enzymatic catalysis, and channel gating. Despite the widespread occurrence of linear RE relations, the principles underlying the linear relatio...

  3. Sensitivity of the polypropylene to the strain rate: experiments and modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdul-Latif, A.; Aboura, Z.; Mosleh, L.

    2002-01-01

    Full text.The main goal of this work is first to evaluate experimentally the strain rate dependent deformation of the polypropylene under tensile load; and secondly is to propose a model capable to appropriately describe the mechanical behavior of this material and especially its sensitivity to the strain rate. Several experimental tensile tests are performed at different quasi-static strain rates in the range of 10 -5 s -1 to 10 -1 s -1 . In addition to some relaxation tests are also conducted introducing the strain rate jumping state during testing. Within the framework of elastoviscoplasticity, a phenomenological model is developed for describing the non-linear mechanical behavior of the material under uniaxial loading paths. With the small strain assumption, the sensitivity of the polypropylene to the strain rate being of particular interest in this work, is accordingly taken into account. As a matter of fact, since this model is based on internal state variables, we assume thus that the material sensitivity to the strain rate is governed by the kinematic hardening variable notably its modulus and the accumulated viscoplastic strain. As far as the elastic behavior is concerned, it is noticed that such a behavior is slightly influenced by the employed strain rate rage. For this reason, the elastic behavior is classically determined, i.e. without coupling with the strain rate dependent deformation. It is obvious that the inelastic behavior of the used material is thoroughly dictated by the applied strain rate. Hence, the model parameters are well calibrated utilizing several experimental databases for different strain rates (10 -5 s -1 to 10 -1 s -1 ). Actually, among these experimental results, some experiments related to the relaxation phenomenon and strain rate jumping during testing (increasing or decreasing) are also used in order to more perfect the model parameters identification. To validate the calibrated model parameters, simulation tests are achieved

  4. Relative viscosity of emulsions in simple shear flow: Temperature, shear rate, and interfacial tension dependence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Se Bin; Lee, Joon Sang [Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Yonsei Unversity, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-08-15

    We simulate an emulsion system under simple shear rates to analyze its rheological characteristics using the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). We calculate the relative viscosity of an emulsion under a simple shear flow along with changes in temperature, shear rate, and surfactant concentration. The relative viscosity of emulsions decreased with an increase in temperature. We observed the shear-thinning phenomena, which is responsible for the inverse proportion between the shear rate and viscosity. An increase in the interfacial tension caused a decrease in the relative viscosity of the decane-in-water emulsion because the increased deformation caused by the decreased interfacial tension significantly influenced the wall shear stress.

  5. A microscopic model of rate and state friction evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tianyi; Rubin, Allan M.

    2017-08-01

    Whether rate- and state-dependent friction evolution is primarily slip dependent or time dependent is not well resolved. Although slide-hold-slide experiments are traditionally interpreted as supporting the aging law, implying time-dependent evolution, recent studies show that this evidence is equivocal. In contrast, the slip law yields extremely good fits to velocity step experiments, although a clear physical picture for slip-dependent friction evolution is lacking. We propose a new microscopic model for rate and state friction evolution in which each asperity has a heterogeneous strength, with individual portions recording the velocity at which they became part of the contact. Assuming an exponential distribution of asperity sizes on the surface, the model produces results essentially similar to the slip law, yielding very good fits to velocity step experiments but not improving much the fits to slide-hold-slide experiments. A numerical kernel for the model is developed, and an analytical expression is obtained for perfect velocity steps, which differs from the slip law expression by a slow-decaying factor. By changing the quantity that determines the intrinsic strength, we use the same model structure to investigate aging-law-like time-dependent evolution. Assuming strength to increase logarithmically with contact age, for two different definitions of age we obtain results for velocity step increases significantly different from the aging law. Interestingly, a solution very close to the aging law is obtained if we apply a third definition of age that we consider to be nonphysical. This suggests that under the current aging law, the state variable is not synonymous with contact age.

  6. The close relation between birth, abortion and employment rates in Sweden from 1980 to 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmqvist, Mikael

    2006-09-01

    Birth and abortion rates in Sweden have fluctuated since 1980 while the proportion between the rates are the same at the beginning and end of the period. An increase in birth rates in the late 1980s resulted in a peak in 1991 and 1992, with 124,000 live births each year. Thereafter followed a steady decline in the rate until 2000, when the number of live births was about 90,000. At that point, the trend changed to an increase. The aim of this analysis was to investigate any relation between employment rates and the number of live births among women aged 20-34, and at the same time to explore the trend for abortion rates compared to the trend for live births. The relation between employment status and live birth rate is statistically more significant for women than men, and the rates have a higher correlation for the period after 1986. Young adults in this age group are vulnerable to economic cycles that can explain this covariation but the decline in birth rates in economically developed societies has multidimensional aspects and many other possible explanations. Much has been done in recent years in Sweden to decrease household inequality for families with children to avoid the risk of relative poverty, but the fact that there is no explicit health policy to reduce the abortion level that remain unchanged since the early 1980s may appear as a notable lack of strategy in a country with many other health-related goals.

  7. Modelling of tomato stem diameter growth rate based on physiological responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, L.; Tan, J.; Lv, T.

    2017-01-01

    The stem diameter is an important parameter describing the growth of tomato plant during vegetative growth stage. A stem diameter growth model was developed to predict the response of plant growth under different conditions. By analyzing the diurnal variations of stem diameter in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.), it was found that the stem diameter measured at 3:00 am was the representative value as the daily basis of tomato stem diameter. Based on the responses of growth rate in stem diameter to light and temperature, a linear regression relationship was applied to establish the stem diameter growth rate prediction model for the vegetative growth stage in tomato and which was further validated by experiment. The root mean square error (RMSE) and relative error (RE) were used to test the correlation between measured and modeled stem diameter variations. Results showed that the model can be used in prediction for stem diameter growth rate at vegetative growth stage in tomato. (author)

  8. The ruin probability of a discrete time risk model under constant interest rate with heavy tails

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tang, Q.

    2004-01-01

    This paper investigates the ultimate ruin probability of a discrete time risk model with a positive constant interest rate. Under the assumption that the gross loss of the company within one year is subexponentially distributed, a simple asymptotic relation for the ruin probability is derived and

  9. Simple mass transport model for metal uptake by marine macroalgae growing at different rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, D.L.

    1984-01-01

    Although algae growing at different rates may exhibit different concentrations of a given metal, such differences in algal chemistry may or may not reflect actual effects of environmental growth factors on the kinetics of metal uptake. Published data on uptake of rubidium, cadmium, and manganese by the green seaweed Ulva fasciata Delile grown at different rates in open system sea water was interpreted using the model. Differences in exposure time to sea water of relatively old and relatively young thalli were responsible for significant decreases in algal rubidium and cadmium concentrations with increases in specific growth rate. The biomass-specific growth rates of uptake of these two metals did not vary with growth rate. Both algal concentrations and specific rates of uptake of manganese increase significantly with increasing growth rate, thus indicating a distinct link between the kinetics of manganese uptake and metabolic rate. Under some circumstances, seaweed bioassay coupled with an interpretive model may provide the only reasonable approach to the study of chemical uptake-growth phenomena. In practice, if the residence time of sea water in culture chambers is sufficiently low to preclude pseudo-closed system artifacts, differences in trace metal concentrations between input and output sea water may be difficult to detect. In the field and in situ experiments based on time-series monitoring of changes in the water chemistry would be technically difficult or perhaps impossible to perform. 13 references, 1 figure.

  10. Modeling patterns in data using linear and related models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelhardt, M.E.

    1996-06-01

    This report considers the use of linear models for analyzing data related to reliability and safety issues of the type usually associated with nuclear power plants. The report discusses some of the general results of linear regression analysis, such as the model assumptions and properties of the estimators of the parameters. The results are motivated with examples of operational data. Results about the important case of a linear regression model with one covariate are covered in detail. This case includes analysis of time trends. The analysis is applied with two different sets of time trend data. Diagnostic procedures and tests for the adequacy of the model are discussed. Some related methods such as weighted regression and nonlinear models are also considered. A discussion of the general linear model is also included. Appendix A gives some basic SAS programs and outputs for some of the analyses discussed in the body of the report. Appendix B is a review of some of the matrix theoretic results which are useful in the development of linear models

  11. "The stone which the builders rejected...": Delay of reinforcement and response rate on fixed-interval and related schedules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wearden, J H; Lejeune, Helga

    2006-02-28

    The article deals with response rates (mainly running and peak or terminal rates) on simple and on some mixed-FI schedules and explores the idea that these rates are determined by the average delay of reinforcement for responses occurring during the response periods that the schedules generate. The effects of reinforcement delay are assumed to be mediated by a hyperbolic delay of reinforcement gradient. The account predicts that (a) running rates on simple FI schedules should increase with increasing rate of reinforcement, in a manner close to that required by Herrnstein's equation, (b) improving temporal control during acquisition should be associated with increasing running rates, (c) two-valued mixed-FI schedules with equiprobable components should produce complex results, with peak rates sometimes being higher on the longer component schedule, and (d) that effects of reinforcement probability on mixed-FI should affect the response rate at the time of the shorter component only. All these predictions were confirmed by data, although effects in some experiments remain outside the scope of the model. In general, delay of reinforcement as a determinant of response rate on FI and related schedules (rather than temporal control on such schedules) seems a useful starting point for a more thorough analysis of some neglected questions about performance on FI and related schedules.

  12. A High-Rate, Single-Crystal Model including Phase Transformations, Plastic Slip, and Twinning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Addessio, Francis L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Bronkhorst, Curt Allan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Bolme, Cynthia Anne [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Explosive Science and Shock Physics Division; Brown, Donald William [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Materials Science and Technology Division; Cerreta, Ellen Kathleen [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Materials Science and Technology Division; Lebensohn, Ricardo A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Materials Science and Technology Division; Lookman, Turab [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Luscher, Darby Jon [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Mayeur, Jason Rhea [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Morrow, Benjamin M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Materials Science and Technology Division; Rigg, Paulo A. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States). Dept. of Physics. Inst. for Shock Physics

    2016-08-09

    An anisotropic, rate-­dependent, single-­crystal approach for modeling materials under the conditions of high strain rates and pressures is provided. The model includes the effects of large deformations, nonlinear elasticity, phase transformations, and plastic slip and twinning. It is envisioned that the model may be used to examine these coupled effects on the local deformation of materials that are subjected to ballistic impact or explosive loading. The model is formulated using a multiplicative decomposition of the deformation gradient. A plate impact experiment on a multi-­crystal sample of titanium was conducted. The particle velocities at the back surface of three crystal orientations relative to the direction of impact were measured. Molecular dynamics simulations were conducted to investigate the details of the high-­rate deformation and pursue issues related to the phase transformation for titanium. Simulations using the single crystal model were conducted and compared to the high-­rate experimental data for the impact loaded single crystals. The model was found to capture the features of the experiments.

  13. Rates of TBI-related Emergency Department Visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths - United States, 2001 – 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — In general, total combined rates for traumatic brain injury (TBI)-related emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations and deaths have increased over the past...

  14. Unsteady-state human-body exergy consumption rate and its relation to subjective assessment of dynamic thermal environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schweiker, Marcel; Kolarik, Jakub; Dovjak, Mateja

    2016-01-01

    of the present study confirmed previously indicated trends that lowest human body exergy consumption rate is associated with thermal sensation close to neutrality. Moreover, higher acceptability was in general associated with lower human body exergy consumption rate. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.......Few examples studied applicability of exergy analysis on human thermal comfort. These examples relate the human-body exergy consumption rate with subjectively obtained thermal sensation votes and had been based on steady-state calculation methods. However, humans are rarely exposed to steady...... between the human-body exergy consumption rate and subjective assessment of thermal environment represented by thermal sensation as well as to extend the investigation towards thermal acceptability votes. Comparison of steady-state and unsteady-state model showed that results from both models were...

  15. Linear constraint relations in biochemical reaction systems: I. Classification of the calculability and the balanceability of conversion rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Heijden, R T; Heijnen, J J; Hellinga, C; Romein, B; Luyben, K C

    1994-01-05

    Measurements provide the basis for process monitoring and control as well as for model development and validation. Systematic approaches to increase the accuracy and credibility of the empirical data set are therefore of great value. In (bio)chemical conversions, linear conservation relations such as the balance equations for charge, enthalpy, and/or chemical elements, can be employed to relate conversion rates. In a pactical situation, some of these rates will be measured (in effect, be calculated directly from primary measurements of, e.g., concentrations and flow rates), as others can or cannot be calculated from the measured ones. When certain measured rates can also be calculated from other measured rates, the set of equations, the accuracy and credibility of the measured rates can indeed be improved by, respectively, balancing and gross error diagnosis. The balanced conversion rates are more accurate, and form a consistent set of data, which is more suitable for further application (e.g., to calculate nonmeasured rates) than the raw measurements. Such an approach has drawn attention in previous studies. The current study deals mainly with the problem of mathematically classifying the conversion rates into balanceable and calculable rates, given the subset of measured rates. The significance of this problem is illustrated with some examples. It is shown that a simple matrix equation can be derived that contains the vector of measured conversion rates and the redundancy matrix R. Matrix R plays a predominant role in the classification problem. In supplementary articles, significance of the redundancy matrix R for an improved gross error diagnosis approach will be shown. In addition, efficient equations have been derived to calculate the balanceable and/or calculable rates. The method is completely based on matrix algebra (principally different from the graph-theoretical approach), and it is easily implemented into a computer program. (c) 1994 John Wiley & Sons

  16. Stigma, attitudes and help-seeking intentions for psychological problems in relation to regional suicide rates.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynders, A.; Kerkhof, A.J.F.M.; Molenberghs, G.; Van Audenhove, C.

    2016-01-01

    In this ecological study, we investigated whether help-seeking related to stigma, intentions, and attitudes toward suicide are associated with the suicide rates of 20 regions within the Netherlands and Belgium. Significant associations were found between regional suicide rates and the intention to

  17. THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENCY RELATIONS IN THE LIGHT OF MAJOR EXCHANGE RATE ADJUSTMENT THEORIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergiy TKACH

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of major exchange rate adjustment theories on the global monetary system. The reasons of the previous organization forms of monetary relations collapse at the global level are defined. The main achievements and failures of major exchange rate theories are described.

  18. GAS REGULATION OF GALAXIES: THE EVOLUTION OF THE COSMIC SPECIFIC STAR FORMATION RATE, THE METALLICITY-MASS-STAR-FORMATION RATE RELATION, AND THE STELLAR CONTENT OF HALOS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lilly, Simon J.; Carollo, C. Marcella; Pipino, Antonio; Peng Yingjie [Institute for Astronomy, Department of Physics, ETH Zurich, CH-8093 Zurich (Switzerland); Renzini, Alvio [Department of Physics and Astronomy Galileo Galilei, Universita degli Studi di Padova, via Marzolo 8, I-35131 Padova (Italy)

    2013-08-01

    A very simple physical model of galaxies is one in which the formation of stars is instantaneously regulated by the mass of gas in a reservoir with mass loss scaling with the star-formation rate (SFR). This model links together three different aspects of the evolving galaxy population: (1) the cosmic time evolution of the specific star-formation rate (sSFR) relative to the growth of halos, (2) the gas-phase metallicities across the galaxy population and over cosmic time, and (3) the ratio of the stellar to dark matter mass of halos. The gas regulator is defined by the gas consumption timescale ({epsilon}{sup -1}) and the mass loading {lambda} of the wind outflow {lambda}{center_dot}SFR. The simplest regulator, in which {epsilon} and {lambda} are constant, sets the sSFR equal to exactly the specific accretion rate of the galaxy; more realistic situations lead to an sSFR that is perturbed from this precise relation. Because the gas consumption timescale is shorter than the timescale on which the system evolves, the metallicity Z is set primarily by the instantaneous operation of the regulator system rather than by the past history of the system. The metallicity of the gas reservoir depends on {epsilon}, {lambda}, and sSFR, and the regulator system therefore naturally produces a Z(m{sub star}, SFR) relation if {epsilon} and {lambda} depend on the stellar mass m{sub star}. Furthermore, this relation will be the same at all epochs unless the parameters {epsilon} and {lambda} themselves change with time. A so-called fundamental metallicity relation is naturally produced by these conditions. The overall mass-metallicity relation Z(m{sub star}) directly provides the fraction f{sub star}(m{sub star}) of incoming baryons that are being transformed into stars. The observed Z(m{sub star}) relation of Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) galaxies implies a strong dependence of stellar mass on halo mass that reconciles the different faint-end slopes of the stellar and halo mass

  19. Are Competitive Materialism and Female Employment Related to International Homicide Rate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chon, Don Soo

    2017-04-01

    The institutional anomie theory is a proposal that states competitive materialism, an intense cultural pressure for economic success at any costs, and increased female employment may be related to a high homicide rate. The current work tested this proposition by utilizing homicide data collected from 45 developed and developing countries. Regression results did not support the proposition. Competitive materialism and female employment were not significantly related to the cross-national variation of homicide rates.

  20. Relative influence of age, resting heart rate and sedentary life style in short-term analysis of heart rate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.R. Migliaro

    2001-04-01

    Full Text Available In order to assess the relative influence of age, resting heart rate (HR and sedentary life style, heart rate variability (HRV was studied in two different groups. The young group (YG consisted of 9 sedentary subjects aged 15 to 20 years (YG-S and of 9 nonsedentary volunteers (YG-NS also aged 15 to 20. The elderly sedentary group (ESG consisted of 16 sedentary subjects aged 39 to 82 years. HRV was assessed using a short-term procedure (5 min. R-R variability was calculated in the time-domain by means of the root mean square successive differences. Frequency-domain HRV was evaluated by power spectrum analysis considering high frequency and low frequency bands. In the YG the effort tolerance was ranked in a bicycle stress test. HR was similar for both groups while ESG showed a reduced HRV compared with YG. Within each group, HRV displayed a negative correlation with HR. Although YG-NS had better effort tolerance than YG-S, their HR and HRV were not significantly different. We conclude that HRV is reduced with increasing HR or age, regardless of life style. The results obtained in our short-term study agree with others of longer duration by showing that age and HR are the main determinants of HRV. Our results do not support the idea that changes in HRV are related to regular physical activity.

  1. Relative influence of age, resting heart rate and sedentary life style in short-term analysis of heart rate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migliaro, E R; Contreras, P; Bech, S; Etxagibel, A; Castro, M; Ricca, R; Vicente, K

    2001-04-01

    In order to assess the relative influence of age, resting heart rate (HR) and sedentary life style, heart rate variability (HRV) was studied in two different groups. The young group (YG) consisted of 9 sedentary subjects aged 15 to 20 years (YG-S) and of 9 nonsedentary volunteers (YG-NS) also aged 15 to 20. The elderly sedentary group (ESG) consisted of 16 sedentary subjects aged 39 to 82 years. HRV was assessed using a short-term procedure (5 min). R-R variability was calculated in the time-domain by means of the root mean square successive differences. Frequency-domain HRV was evaluated by power spectrum analysis considering high frequency and low frequency bands. In the YG the effort tolerance was ranked in a bicycle stress test. HR was similar for both groups while ESG showed a reduced HRV compared with YG. Within each group, HRV displayed a negative correlation with HR. Although YG-NS had better effort tolerance than YG-S, their HR and HRV were not significantly different. We conclude that HRV is reduced with increasing HR or age, regardless of life style. The results obtained in our short-term study agree with others of longer duration by showing that age and HR are the main determinants of HRV. Our results do not support the idea that changes in HRV are related to regular physical activity.

  2. The Influence of Herbivory on the net rate of Increase of Gypsy Moth Abundance: A Modeling Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

     Harry T.  Valentine

    1983-01-01

    A differential equation model of gypsy moth abundance, average larval dry weight, and food abundance was used to analyze the effects of changes in foliar chemistry on the net per capita rate of increase in a gypsy moth population. If relative consumption rate per larva is unaffected by herbivory, a reduction in the nutritional value of foliage reduces the net rate of...

  3. Statistical inference, the bootstrap, and neural-network modeling with application to foreign exchange rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, H; Racine, J

    2001-01-01

    We propose tests for individual and joint irrelevance of network inputs. Such tests can be used to determine whether an input or group of inputs "belong" in a particular model, thus permitting valid statistical inference based on estimated feedforward neural-network models. The approaches employ well-known statistical resampling techniques. We conduct a small Monte Carlo experiment showing that our tests have reasonable level and power behavior, and we apply our methods to examine whether there are predictable regularities in foreign exchange rates. We find that exchange rates do appear to contain information that is exploitable for enhanced point prediction, but the nature of the predictive relations evolves through time.

  4. Dispersion relation and growth rate in a Cherenkov free electron laser: Finite axial magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kheiri, Golshad; Esmaeilzadeh, Mahdi

    2013-01-01

    A theoretical analysis is presented for dispersion relation and growth rate in a Cherenkov free electron laser with finite axial magnetic field. It is shown that the growth rate and the resonance frequency of Cherenkov free electron laser increase with increasing axial magnetic field for low axial magnetic fields, while for high axial magnetic fields, they go to a saturation value. The growth rate and resonance frequency saturation values are exactly the same as those for infinite axial magnetic field approximation. The effects of electron beam self-fields on growth rate are investigated, and it is shown that the growth rate decreases in the presence of self-fields. It is found that there is an optimum value for electron beam density and Lorentz relativistic factor at which the maximum growth rate can take place. Also, the effects of velocity spread of electron beam are studied and it is found that the growth rate decreases due to the electron velocity spread

  5. Lattice Boltzmann model for numerical relativity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilseven, E; Mendoza, M

    2016-02-01

    In the Z4 formulation, Einstein equations are written as a set of flux conservative first-order hyperbolic equations that resemble fluid dynamics equations. Based on this formulation, we construct a lattice Boltzmann model for numerical relativity and validate it with well-established tests, also known as "apples with apples." Furthermore, we find that by increasing the relaxation time, we gain stability at the cost of losing accuracy, and by decreasing the lattice spacings while keeping a constant numerical diffusivity, the accuracy and stability of our simulations improve. Finally, in order to show the potential of our approach, a linear scaling law for parallelization with respect to number of CPU cores is demonstrated. Our model represents the first step in using lattice kinetic theory to solve gravitational problems.

  6. Relating Complexity and Error Rates of Ontology Concepts. More Complex NCIt Concepts Have More Errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Hua; Zheng, Ling; Perl, Yehoshua; Halper, Michael; De Coronado, Sherri; Ochs, Christopher

    2017-05-18

    Ontologies are knowledge structures that lend support to many health-information systems. A study is carried out to assess the quality of ontological concepts based on a measure of their complexity. The results show a relation between complexity of concepts and error rates of concepts. A measure of lateral complexity defined as the number of exhibited role types is used to distinguish between more complex and simpler concepts. Using a framework called an area taxonomy, a kind of abstraction network that summarizes the structural organization of an ontology, concepts are divided into two groups along these lines. Various concepts from each group are then subjected to a two-phase QA analysis to uncover and verify errors and inconsistencies in their modeling. A hierarchy of the National Cancer Institute thesaurus (NCIt) is used as our test-bed. A hypothesis pertaining to the expected error rates of the complex and simple concepts is tested. Our study was done on the NCIt's Biological Process hierarchy. Various errors, including missing roles, incorrect role targets, and incorrectly assigned roles, were discovered and verified in the two phases of our QA analysis. The overall findings confirmed our hypothesis by showing a statistically significant difference between the amounts of errors exhibited by more laterally complex concepts vis-à-vis simpler concepts. QA is an essential part of any ontology's maintenance regimen. In this paper, we reported on the results of a QA study targeting two groups of ontology concepts distinguished by their level of complexity, defined in terms of the number of exhibited role types. The study was carried out on a major component of an important ontology, the NCIt. The findings suggest that more complex concepts tend to have a higher error rate than simpler concepts. These findings can be utilized to guide ongoing efforts in ontology QA.

  7. EWAM: a model for predicting food and water ingestion, and inhalation rates of man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, Reto; Barnard, John W.

    1985-09-01

    A computer model, EWAM (Energy, Water and Air Model), has been designed and implemented for predicting food and water ingestion, and inhalation rates of man for use in environmental assessment models. EWAM uses physiological, energetic, nutritional and physical relationships in combination with activity time budgets, and mass and energy balances. The calculated ingestion and inhalation rates are closely related. Various age and sex classes of man are taken into account. EWAM is best described as a deterministic equilibrium or steady-state model, operating on a daily time-scale, with both detailed research and more general assessment model features. The parameters of EWAM are reviewed and suitable values recommended to allow biologically meaningful predictions

  8. A Computational Study on the Relation between Resting Heart Rate and Atrial Fibrillation Hemodynamics under Exercise.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Anselmino

    Full Text Available Clinical data indicating a heart rate (HR target during rate control therapy for permanent atrial fibrillation (AF and assessing its eventual relationship with reduced exercise tolerance are lacking. The present study aims at investigating the impact of resting HR on the hemodynamic response to exercise in permanent AF patients by means of a computational cardiovascular model.The AF lumped-parameter model was run to simulate resting (1 Metabolic Equivalent of Task-MET and various exercise conditions (4 METs: brisk walking; 6 METs: skiing; 8 METs: running, considering different resting HR (70 bpm for the slower resting HR-SHR-simulations, and 100 bpm for the higher resting HR-HHR-simulations. To compare relative variations of cardiovascular variables upon exertion, the variation comparative index (VCI-the absolute variation between the exercise and the resting values in SHR simulations referred to the absolute variation in HHR simulations-was calculated at each exercise grade (VCI4, VCI6 and VCI8.Pulmonary venous pressure underwent a greater increase in HHR compared to SHR simulations (VCI4 = 0.71, VCI6 = 0.73 and VCI8 = 0.77, while for systemic arterial pressure the opposite is true (VCI4 = 1.15, VCI6 = 1.36, VCI8 = 1.56.The computational findings suggest that a slower, with respect to a higher resting HR, might be preferable in permanent AF patients, since during exercise pulmonary venous pressure undergoes a slighter increase and systemic blood pressure reveals a more appropriate increase.

  9. Health effects of low doses at low dose rates: dose-response relationship modeling in a cohort of workers of the nuclear industry; Effets sanitaires des faibles doses a faibles debits de dose: modelisation de la relation dose-reponse dans une cohorte de travailleurs du nucleaire

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Metz-Flamant, Camille

    2011-09-19

    The aim of this thesis is to contribute to a better understanding of the health effects of chronic external low doses of ionising radiation. This work is based on the French cohort of CEA-AREVA NC nuclear workers. The mains stages of this thesis were (1) conducting a review of epidemiological studies on nuclear workers, (2) completing the database and performing a descriptive analysis of the cohort, (3) quantifying risk by different statistical methods and (4) modelling the exposure-time-risk relationship. The cohort includes monitored workers employed more than one year between 1950 and 1994 at CEA or AREVA NC companies. Individual annual external exposure, history of work, vital status and causes of death were reconstructed for each worker. Standardized mortality ratios using French national mortality rates as external reference were computed. Exposure-risk analysis was conducted in the cohort using the linear excess relative risk model, based on both Poisson regression and Cox model. Time dependent modifying factors were investigated by adding an interaction term in the model or by using exposure time windows. The cohort includes 36, 769 workers, followed-up until age 60 in average. During the 1968- 2004 period, 5, 443 deaths, 2, 213 cancers, 62 leukemia and 1, 314 cardiovascular diseases were recorded. Among the 57% exposed workers, the mean cumulative dose was 21.5 milli-sieverts (mSv). A strong Healthy Worker Effect is observed in the cohort. Significant elevated risks of pleura cancer and melanoma deaths were observed in the cohort but not associated with dose. No significant association was observed with solid cancers, lung cancer and cardiovascular diseases. A significant dose-response relationship was observed for leukemia excluding chronic lymphatic leukemia, mainly for doses received less than 15 years before and for yearly dose rates higher than 10 mSv. This PhD work contributes to the evaluation of risks associated to chronic external radiation

  10. Exploring patient satisfaction predictors in relation to a theoretical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grøndahl, Vigdis Abrahamsen; Hall-Lord, Marie Louise; Karlsson, Ingela; Appelgren, Jari; Wilde-Larsson, Bodil

    2013-01-01

    The aim is to describe patients' care quality perceptions and satisfaction and to explore potential patient satisfaction predictors as person-related conditions, external objective care conditions and patients' perception of actual care received ("PR") in relation to a theoretical model. A cross-sectional design was used. Data were collected using one questionnaire combining questions from four instruments: Quality from patients' perspective; Sense of coherence; Big five personality trait; and Emotional stress reaction questionnaire (ESRQ), together with questions from previous research. In total, 528 patients (83.7 per cent response rate) from eight medical, three surgical and one medical/surgical ward in five Norwegian hospitals participated. Answers from 373 respondents with complete ESRQ questionnaires were analysed. Sequential multiple regression analysis with ESRQ as dependent variable was run in three steps: person-related conditions, external objective care conditions, and PR (p person-related conditions) explained 51.7 per cent of the ESRQ variance. Step 2 (external objective care conditions) explained an additional 2.4 per cent. Step 3 (PR) gave no significant additional explanation (0.05 per cent). Steps 1 and 2 contributed statistical significance to the model. Patients rated both quality-of-care and satisfaction highly. The paper shows that the theoretical model using an emotion-oriented approach to assess patient satisfaction can explain 54 per cent of patient satisfaction in a statistically significant manner.

  11. Modeling and Model Predictive Power and Rate Control of Wireless Communication Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cunwu Han

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel power and rate control system model for wireless communication networks is presented, which includes uncertainties, input constraints, and time-varying delays in both state and control input. A robust delay-dependent model predictive power and rate control method is proposed, and the state feedback control law is obtained by solving an optimization problem that is derived by using linear matrix inequality (LMI techniques. Simulation results are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  12. Incorporating a Time Horizon in Rate-of-Return Estimations: Discounted Cash Flow Model in Electric Transmission Rate Cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatterjee, Bishu; Sharp, Peter A.

    2006-01-01

    Electric transmission and other rate cases use a form of the discounted cash flow model with a single long-term growth rate to estimate rates of return on equity. It cannot incorporate information about the appropriate time horizon for which analysts' estimates of earnings growth have predictive powers. Only a non-constant growth model can explicitly recognize the importance of the time horizon in an ROE calculation. (author)

  13. A model relating Eulerian spatial and temporal velocity correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cholemari, Murali R.; Arakeri, Jaywant H.

    2006-03-01

    In this paper we propose a model to relate Eulerian spatial and temporal velocity autocorrelations in homogeneous, isotropic and stationary turbulence. We model the decorrelation as the eddies of various scales becoming decorrelated. This enables us to connect the spatial and temporal separations required for a certain decorrelation through the ‘eddy scale’. Given either the spatial or the temporal velocity correlation, we obtain the ‘eddy scale’ and the rate at which the decorrelation proceeds. This leads to a spatial separation from the temporal correlation and a temporal separation from the spatial correlation, at any given value of the correlation relating the two correlations. We test the model using experimental data from a stationary axisymmetric turbulent flow with homogeneity along the axis.

  14. Characterization of tropical precipitation using drop size distribution and rain rate-radar reflectivity relation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Saurabh; Maitra, Animesh

    2018-04-01

    Characterization of precipitation is important for proper interpretation of rain information from remotely sensed data. Rain attenuation and radar reflectivity (Z) depend directly on the drop size distribution (DSD). The relation between radar reflectivity/rain attenuation and rain rate (R) varies widely depending upon the origin, topography, and drop evolution mechanism and needs further understanding of the precipitation characteristics. The present work utilizes 2 years of concurrent measurements of DSD using a ground-based disdrometer at five diverse climatic conditions in Indian subcontinent and explores the possibility of rain classification based on microphysical characteristics of precipitation. It is observed that both gamma and lognormal distributions are performing almost similar for Indian region with a marginally better performance by one model than other depending upon the locations. It has also been found that shape-slope relationship of gamma distribution can be a good indicator of rain type. The Z-R relation, Z = ARb, is found to vary widely for different precipitation systems, with convective rain that has higher values of A than the stratiform rain for two locations, whereas the reverse is observed for the rest of the three locations. Further, the results indicate that the majority of rainfall (>50%) in Indian region is due to the convective rain although the occurrence time of convective rain is low (<10%).

  15. Volatility modeling for IDR exchange rate through APARCH model with student-t distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugroho, Didit Budi; Susanto, Bambang

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the performance of APARCH(1,1) volatility model with the Student-t error distribution on five foreign currency selling rates to Indonesian rupiah (IDR), including the Swiss franc (CHF), the Euro (EUR), the British pound (GBP), Japanese yen (JPY), and the US dollar (USD). Six years daily closing rates over the period of January 2010 to December 2016 for a total number of 1722 observations have analysed. The Bayesian inference using the efficient independence chain Metropolis-Hastings and adaptive random walk Metropolis methods in the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme has been applied to estimate the parameters of model. According to the DIC criterion, this study has found that the APARCH(1,1) model under Student-t distribution is a better fit than the model under normal distribution for any observed rate return series. The 95% highest posterior density interval suggested the APARCH models to model the IDR/JPY and IDR/USD volatilities. In particular, the IDR/JPY and IDR/USD data, respectively, have significant negative and positive leverage effect in the rate returns. Meanwhile, the optimal power coefficient of volatility has been found to be statistically different from 2 in adopting all rate return series, save the IDR/EUR rate return series.

  16. Random breath testing in Queensland and Western Australia: examination of how the random breath testing rate influences alcohol related traffic crash rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferris, Jason; Mazerolle, Lorraine; King, Mark; Bates, Lyndel; Bennett, Sarah; Devaney, Madonna

    2013-11-01

    In this paper we explore the relationship between monthly random breath testing (RBT) rates (per 1000 licensed drivers) and alcohol-related traffic crash (ARTC) rates over time, across two Australian states: Queensland and Western Australia. We analyse the RBT, ARTC and licensed driver rates across 12 years; however, due to administrative restrictions, we model ARTC rates against RBT rates for the period July 2004 to June 2009. The Queensland data reveals that the monthly ARTC rate is almost flat over the five year period. Based on the results of the analysis, an average of 5.5 ARTCs per 100,000 licensed drivers are observed across the study period. For the same period, the monthly rate of RBTs per 1000 licensed drivers is observed to be decreasing across the study with the results of the analysis revealing no significant variations in the data. The comparison between Western Australia and Queensland shows that Queensland's ARTC monthly percent change (MPC) is 0.014 compared to the MPC of 0.47 for Western Australia. While Queensland maintains a relatively flat ARTC rate, the ARTC rate in Western Australia is increasing. Our analysis reveals an inverse relationship between ARTC RBT rates, that for every 10% increase in the percentage of RBTs to licensed driver there is a 0.15 decrease in the rate of ARTCs per 100,000 licenced drivers. Moreover, in Western Australia, if the 2011 ratio of 1:2 (RBTs to annual number of licensed drivers) were to double to a ratio of 1:1, we estimate the number of monthly ARTCs would reduce by approximately 15. Based on these findings we believe that as the number of RBTs conducted increases the number of drivers willing to risk being detected for drinking driving decreases, because the perceived risk of being detected is considered greater. This is turn results in the number of ARTCs diminishing. The results of this study provide an important evidence base for policy decisions for RBT operations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All

  17. Empirical rate equation model and rate calculations of hydrogen generation for Hanford tank waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HU, T.A.

    1999-01-01

    Empirical rate equations are derived to estimate hydrogen generation based on chemical reactions, radiolysis of water and organic compounds, and corrosion processes. A comparison of the generation rates observed in the field with the rates calculated for twenty eight tanks shows agreement within a factor of two to three

  18. Female song rates in response to simulated intruder are positively related to reproductive success.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristal E Cain

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Bird song is well studied in males as a sexually selected behavior. However, although song is also common among females, it is infrequently examined and poorly understood. Research suggests that song is often used as a resource defense behavior and is important in female-female competition for limited resources, e.g. mates and territories. If so, song should be positively related to fitness and related to other resource defense behaviors, but this possibility has rarely been explored. Here we examine fitness estimates in relation to spontaneous song rates and song rates in response to a simulated intruder (playback, in the superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus, a cooperatively breeding songbird. We also determine how song rates relate to other territorial defense behaviors. Song rate in response to playback, but not spontaneous song rate, was positively related to nest success and the number of fledglings produced by successful females. Further, response song rate was also correlated with other territorial defense behaviors (latency to respond and flights. This evidence supports the hypothesis that female song may be used in the context of female-female competition to improve access to limited reproductive resources, and suggests that song may provide direct fitness benefits.

  19. Relating derived relations as a model of analogical reasoning: reaction times and event-related potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes-Holmes, Dermot; Regan, Donal; Barnes-Holmes, Yvonne; Commins, Sean; Walsh, Derek; Stewart, Ian; Smeets, Paul M; Whelan, Robert; Dymond, Simon

    2005-11-01

    The current study aimed to test a Relational Frame Theory (RFT) model of analogical reasoning based on the relating of derived same and derived difference relations. Experiment 1 recorded reaction time measures of similar-similar (e.g., "apple is to orange as dog is to cat") versus different-different (e.g., "he is to his brother as chalk is to cheese") derived relational responding, in both speed-contingent and speed-noncontingent conditions. Experiment 2 examined the event-related potentials (ERPs) associated with these two response patterns. Both experiments showed similar-similar responding to be significantly faster than different-different responding. Experiment 2 revealed significant differences between the waveforms of the two response patterns in the left-hemispheric prefrontal regions; different-different waveforms were significantly more negative than similar-similar waveforms. The behavioral and neurophysiological data support the RFT prediction that, all things being equal, similar-similar responding is relationally "simpler" than, and functionally distinct from, different-different analogical responding. The ERP data were fully consistent with findings in the neurocognitive literature on analogy. These findings strengthen the validity of the RFT model of analogical reasoning and supplement the behavior-analytic approach to analogy based on the relating of derived relations.

  20. Work-related ill health in doctors working in Great Britain: incidence rates and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Anli Yue; Carder, Melanie; Gittins, Matthew; Agius, Raymond

    2017-11-01

    Background Doctors have a higher prevalence of mental ill health compared with other professional occupations but incidence rates are poorly studied. Aims To determine incidence rates and trends of work-related ill health (WRIH) and work-related mental ill health (WRMIH) in doctors compared with other professions in Great Britain. Method Incidence rates were calculated using an occupational physician reporting scheme from 2005-2010. Multilevel regression was use to study incidence rates from 2001 to 2014. Results Annual incidence rates for WRIH and WRIMH in doctors were 515 and 431 per 100 000 people employed, respectively. Higher incidence rates for WRIH and WRMIH were observed for ambulance staff and nurses, respectively. Doctors demonstrated an annual average incidence rates increase for WRIH and WRMIH, especially in women, whereas the other occupations demonstrated a decreasing or static trend. The difference in trends between the occupations was statistically significant. Conclusions WRIH and WRMIH incidence rate are increasing in doctors, especially in women, warranting further research. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2017.

  1. A model for rate-dependent but time-independent material behavior in cyclic plasticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dafalias, Y.F.; Ramey, M.R.; Sheikh, I.

    1977-01-01

    This paper presents a model for rate-dependent but time independent material behavior under cyclic loading in the plastic range. What is referred to as time independent behavior here, is the absence of creep and relaxation phenomena from the behavior of the model. The notion of plastic internal variables (piv) is introduced, as properly invariant scalars or second order tensors, whose constitutive relations are rate-type equations not necessarily homogeneous of order one in the rates, as it would be required for independent plasticity. The concept of a yield surface in the strain space and a loading function in terms of the total strain rate is introduced, where the sign of the loading function defines zero or non-zero value of the rate of piv. Thus rate dependence is achieved without time dependent behaviour (no creep or relaxation). In addition, discrete memory parameters associated with the most recent event of unloading-reloading in different directions enter the constitutive relations for the piv. (Auth.)

  2. Male sexual strategies modify ratings of female models with specific waist-to-hip ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brase, Gary L; Walker, Gary

    2004-06-01

    Female waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) has generally been an important general predictor of ratings of physical attractiveness and related characteristics. Individual differences in ratings do exist, however, and may be related to differences in the reproductive tactics of the male raters such as pursuit of short-term or long-term relationships and adjustments based on perceptions of one's own quality as a mate. Forty males, categorized according to sociosexual orientation and physical qualities (WHR, Body Mass Index, and self-rated desirability), rated female models on both attractiveness and likelihood they would approach them. Sociosexually restricted males were less likely to approach females rated as most attractive (with 0.68-0.72 WHR), as compared with unrestricted males. Males with lower scores in terms of physical qualities gave ratings indicating more favorable evaluations of female models with lower WHR. The results indicate that attractiveness and willingness to approach are overlapping but distinguishable constructs, both of which are influenced by variations in characteristics of the raters.

  3. Modeling the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar using the ARCH/GARCH models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovačević Radovan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of time series with conditional heteroskedasticity (changeable time variability, conditional variance instability, the phenomenon called volatility is the main task of ARCH and GARCH models. The aim of these models is to calculate some of the volatility indicators needed for financial decisions. This paper examines the performance of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH model in modeling the daily changes of the log exchange rate of the euro against the dollar. Several GARCH models have been applied for modeling the daily log exchange rate returns of the euro, with a different number of parameters. The characteristic of estimated GARCH models is that the obtained coefficients of lagged squared residuals and the conditional variance parameters in the equation of conditional variance have a strong statistical significance. The sum of these two coefficients' estimates is close to a unit, which is typical for GARCH models that are applied on the data of financial assets returns. This means that the shocks in the conditional variance equation will be long lasting. The great value of the sum of these two coefficients shows that the high rates of positive or negative returns leads to a large forecasted value of the variance in the prolonged period. The asymmetrical EGARCH (1,1 model has showed the best results in modeling the euro exchange rate returns. The asymmetry term in the conditional variance equation of this model is negative and statistically significant. A negative value of this term suggests that the positive shock has less impact on the conditional variance than the negative shocks. The asymmetric EGARCH (1,1 model provides evidence of a leverage effect.

  4. Modeling gallic acid production rate by empirical and statistical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bratati Kar

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available For predicting the rate of enzymatic reaction empirical correlation based on the experimental results obtained under various operating conditions have been developed. Models represent both the activation as well as deactivation conditions of enzymatic hydrolysis and the results have been analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA. The tannase activity was found maximum at incubation time 5 min, reaction temperature 40ºC, pH 4.0, initial enzyme concentration 0.12 v/v, initial substrate concentration 0.42 mg/ml, ionic strength 0.2 M and under these optimal conditions, the maximum rate of gallic acid production was 33.49 mumoles/ml/min.Para predizer a taxa das reações enzimaticas uma correlação empírica baseada nos resultados experimentais foi desenvolvida. Os modelos representam a ativação e a desativativação da hydrolise enzimatica. Os resultados foram avaliados pela análise de variança (ANOVA. A atividade máxima da tannase foi obtida após 5 minutos de incubação, temperatura 40ºC, pH 4,0, concentração inicial da enzima de 0,12 v/v, concentração inicial do substrato 0,42 mg/ml, força iônica 0,2 M. Sob essas condições a taxa máxima de produção ácido galico foi de 33,49 µmoles/ml/min.

  5. Relative tropospheric photolysis rates of acetaldehyde and formaldehyde measured at the European Photoreactor Facility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilsson, Elna Johanna Kristina; Bache-Andreassen, Lihn; Johnson, Matthew Stanley

    2009-01-01

    The photolysis rates of HCHO, DCDO, CH3CHO, and CH3CDO are studied by long-path FTIR spectroscopy in natural tropospheric conditions at the European Photoreactor Facility (EUPHORE) in Valencia, Spain. Average relative photolysis rates jHCHO/jDCDO ) 3.15 ( 0.08 and jCH3CHO/jCH3CDO ) 1.26 ( 0.03 ar.......03 are obtained from three days of experiments for each reaction in the period June 17 to July 7, 2006.......The photolysis rates of HCHO, DCDO, CH3CHO, and CH3CDO are studied by long-path FTIR spectroscopy in natural tropospheric conditions at the European Photoreactor Facility (EUPHORE) in Valencia, Spain. Average relative photolysis rates jHCHO/jDCDO ) 3.15 ( 0.08 and jCH3CHO/jCH3CDO ) 1.26 ( 0...

  6. A relation between calculated human body exergy consumption rate and subjectively assessed thermal sensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simone, Angela; Kolarik, Jakub; Iwamatsu, Toshiya

    2011-01-01

    occupants, it is reasonable to consider both the exergy flows in building and those within the human body. Until now, no data have been available on the relation between human-body exergy consumption rates and subjectively assessed thermal sensation. The objective of the present work was to relate thermal...... sensation data, from earlier thermal comfort studies, to calculated human-body exergy consumption rates. The results show that the minimum human body exergy consumption rate is associated with thermal sensation votes close to thermal neutrality, tending to the slightly cool side of thermal sensation....... Generally, the relationship between air temperature and the exergy consumption rate, as a first approximation, shows an increasing trend. Taking account of both convective and radiative heat exchange between the human body and the surrounding environment by using the calculated operative temperature, exergy...

  7. Strain rate dependent tensile behavior of advanced high strength steels: Experiment and constitutive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Ji-Hoon; Kim, Daeyong; Han, Heung Nam; Barlat, F.; Lee, Myoung-Gyu

    2013-01-01

    High strain rate tensile tests were conducted for three advanced high strength steels: DP780, DP980 and TRIP780. A high strain rate tensile test machine was used for applying the strain rate ranging from 0.1/s to 500/s. Details of the measured stress–strain responses were comparatively analyzed for the DP780 and TRIP780 steels which show similar microstructural feature and ultimate tensile strength, but different strengthening mechanisms. The experimental observations included: usual strain rate dependent plastic flow stress behavior in terms of the yield stress (YS), the ultimate tensile strength (UTS), the uniform elongation (UE) and the total elongation (TE) which were observed for the three materials. But, higher strain hardening rate at early plastic strain under quasi-static condition than that of some increased strain rates was featured for TRIP780 steel, which might result from more active transformation during deformation with lower velocity. The uniform elongation that explains the onset of instability and the total elongation were larger in case of TRIP steel than the DP steel for the whole strain rate range, but interestingly the fracture strain measured by the reduction of area (RA) method showed that the TRIP steel has lower values than DP steel. The fractographs using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) at the fractured surfaces were analyzed to relate measured fracture strain and the microstructural difference of the two materials during the process of fracture under various strain rates. Finally, constitutive modeling for the plastic flow stresses under various strain rates was provided in this study. The proposed constitutive law could represent both Hollomon-like and Voce-like hardening laws and the ratio between the two hardening types was efficiently controlled as a function of strain rate. The new strength model was validated successfully under various strain rates for several grades of steels such as mild steels, DP780, TRIP780, DP980 steels.

  8. RATING MODELS AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES APPLICATION FOR MANAGEMENT OF ADMINISTRATIVE-TERRITORIAL COMPLEXES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. M. Pshinko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The paper aims to develop rating models and related information technologies designed to resolve the tasks of strategic planning of the administrative and territorial units’ development, as well as the tasks of multi-criteria control of inhomogeneous multiparameter objects operation. Methodology. When solving problems of strategic planning of administrative and territorial development and heterogeneous classes management of objects under control, a set of agreed methods is used. Namely the multi-criteria properties analysis for objects of planning and management, diagnostics of the state parameters, forecasting and management of complex systems of different classes. Their states are estimated by sets of different quality indicators, as well as represented by the individual models of operation process. A new information technology is proposed and created to implement the strategic planning and management tasks. This technology uses the procedures for solving typical tasks, that are implemented in MS SQL Server. Findings. A new approach to develop models of analyze and management of complex systems classes based on the ratings has been proposed. Rating models development for analysis of multicriteria and multiparameter systems has been obtained. The management of these systems is performed on the base of parameters of the current and predicted state by non-uniform distribution of resources. The procedure of sensitivity analysis of the changes in the rating model of inhomogeneous distribution of resources parameters has been developed. The information technology of strategic planning and management of heterogeneous classes of objects based on the rating model has been created. Originality. This article proposes a new approach of the rating indicators’ using as a general model for strategic planning of the development and management of heterogeneous objects that can be characterized by the sets of parameters measured on different scales

  9. A relation between calculated human body exergy consumption rate and subjectively assessed thermal sensation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simone, Angela; Kolarik, Jakub; Olesen, Bjarne W. [ICIEE/BYG, Technical University of Denmark (Denmark); Iwamatsu, Toshiya [Faculty of Urban Environmental Science, Tokyo Metropolitan University (Japan); Asada, Hideo [Architech Consulting Co., Tokyo (Japan); Dovjak, Mateja [Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering, University of Ljubljana (Slovenia); Schellen, Lisje [Eindhoven University of Technology, Faculty of Architecture Building and Planning (Netherlands); Shukuya, Masanori [Laboratory of Building Environment, Tokyo City University, Yokohama (Japan)

    2011-01-15

    Application of the exergy concept to research on the built environment is a relatively new approach. It helps to optimize climate conditioning systems so that they meet the requirements of sustainable building design. As the building should provide a healthy and comfortable environment for its occupants, it is reasonable to consider both the exergy flows in building and those within the human body. Until now, no data have been available on the relation between human-body exergy consumption rates and subjectively assessed thermal sensation. The objective of the present work was to relate thermal sensation data, from earlier thermal comfort studies, to calculated human-body exergy consumption rates. The results show that the minimum human body exergy consumption rate is associated with thermal sensation votes close to thermal neutrality, tending to the slightly cool side of thermal sensation. Generally, the relationship between air temperature and the exergy consumption rate, as a first approximation, shows an increasing trend. Taking account of both convective and radiative heat exchange between the human body and the surrounding environment by using the calculated operative temperature, exergy consumption rates increase as the operative temperature increases above 24 C or decreases below 22 C. With the data available so far, a second-order polynomial relationship between thermal sensation and the exergy consumption rate was established. (author)

  10. The economic production lot size model with several production rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian

    should be chosen in the interval between the demand rate and the production rate, which minimize unit production costs, and should be used in an increasing order. Then, given the production rates, we derive closed form solutions for the optimal runtimes as well as the minimum average cost. Finally we...

  11. MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF HEATING RATE PRODUCT AT HIGH HEAT TREATMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Akhmedova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Methods of computing and mathematical modeling are all widely used in the study of various heat exchange processes that provide the ability to study the dynamics of the processes, as well as to conduct a reasonable search for the optimal technological parameters of heat treatment.This work is devoted to the identification of correlations among the factors that have the greatest effect on the rate of heating of the product at hightemperature heat sterilization in a stream of hot air, which are chosen as the temperature difference (between the most and least warming up points and speed cans during heat sterilization.As a result of the experimental data warming of the central and peripheral layers compote of apples in a 3 liter pot at high-temperature heat treatment in a stream of hot air obtained by the regression equation in the form of a seconddegree polynomial, taking into account the effects of pair interaction of these parameters. 

  12. Development in self-rated health among older people as determinant of social relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Avlund, Kirsten; Modvig, Jens Simon; Due, Pernille

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyse whether development in self-rated health (SRH) over four years was associated with the structure of and satisfaction with social relations, at four and eight years follow-up, among elderly women and men.......The purpose of this study was to analyse whether development in self-rated health (SRH) over four years was associated with the structure of and satisfaction with social relations, at four and eight years follow-up, among elderly women and men....

  13. DETERMINANTS OF SOVEREIGN RATING: FACTOR BASED ORDERED PROBIT MODELS FOR PANEL DATA ANALYSIS MODELING FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilek Teker

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to compose a new rating methodology and provide credit notches to 23 countries which of 13 are developed and 10 are emerging. There are various literature that explains the determinants of credit ratings. Following the literature, we select 11 variables for our model which of 5 are eliminated by the factor analysis. We use specific dummies to investigate the structural breaks in time and cross section such as pre crises, post crises, BRIC membership, EU membership, OPEC membership, shipbuilder country and platinum reserved country. Then we run an ordered probit model and give credit notches to the countries. We use FITCH ratings as benchmark. Thus, at the end we compare the notches of FITCH with the ones we derive out of our estimated model.

  14. LOFAR/H-ATLAS: the low-frequency radio luminosity-star formation rate relation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gürkan, G.; Hardcastle, M. J.; Smith, D. J. B.; Best, P. N.; Bourne, N.; Calistro-Rivera, G.; Heald, G.; Jarvis, M. J.; Prandoni, I.; Röttgering, H. J. A.; Sabater, J.; Shimwell, T.; Tasse, C.; Williams, W. L.

    2018-04-01

    Radio emission is a key indicator of star formation activity in galaxies, but the radio luminosity-star formation relation has to date been studied almost exclusively at frequencies of 1.4 GHz or above. At lower radio frequencies, the effects of thermal radio emission are greatly reduced, and so we would expect the radio emission observed to be completely dominated by synchrotron radiation from supernova-generated cosmic rays. As part of the LOFAR Surveys Key Science project, the Herschel-ATLAS NGP field has been surveyed with LOFAR at an effective frequency of 150 MHz. We select a sample from the MPA-JHU catalogue of Sloan Digital Sky Survey galaxies in this area: the combination of Herschel, optical and mid-infrared data enable us to derive star formation rates (SFRs) for our sources using spectral energy distribution fitting, allowing a detailed study of the low-frequency radio luminosity-star formation relation in the nearby Universe. For those objects selected as star-forming galaxies (SFGs) using optical emission line diagnostics, we find a tight relationship between the 150 MHz radio luminosity (L150) and SFR. Interestingly, we find that a single power-law relationship between L150 and SFR is not a good description of all SFGs: a broken power-law model provides a better fit. This may indicate an additional mechanism for the generation of radio-emitting cosmic rays. Also, at given SFR, the radio luminosity depends on the stellar mass of the galaxy. Objects that were not classified as SFGs have higher 150-MHz radio luminosity than would be expected given their SFR, implying an important role for low-level active galactic nucleus activity.

  15. Financial modeling in medicine: cash flow, basic metrics, the time value of money, discount rates, and internal rate of return.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lexa, Frank James; Berlin, Jonathan W

    2005-03-01

    In this article, the authors cover tools for financial modeling. Commonly used time lines and cash flow diagrams are discussed. Commonly used but limited terms such as payback and breakeven are introduced. The important topics of the time value of money and discount rates are introduced to lay the foundation for their use in modeling and in more advanced metrics such as the internal rate of return. Finally, the authors broach the more sophisticated topic of net present value.

  16. Variation in Primary Cesarean Delivery Rates by Individual Physician within a Single Hospital Laborist Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    METZ, Torri D.; ALLSHOUSE, Amanda A.; GILBERT, Sara A Babcock; DOYLE, Reina; TONG, Angie; CAREY, J. Christopher

    2016-01-01

    Background Laborist practice models are associated with lower cesarean delivery rates than individual private practice models in several studies; however, this effect is not uniform. Further exploration of laborist models may help us better understand the observed reduction in cesarean delivery rates in some hospitals with implementation of a laborist model. Objective Our objective was to evaluate the degree of variation in primary cesarean delivery rates by individual laborists within a single institution employing a laborist model. In addition, we sought to evaluate whether differences in cesarean delivery rates resulted in different maternal or short-term neonatal outcomes. Study Design At this teaching institution, one laborist (either a generalist or maternal-fetal medicine attending physician) is directly responsible for labor and delivery management during each shift. No patients are followed in a private practice model nor are physicians incentivized to perform deliveries. We retrospectively identified all laborists who delivered nulliparous, term women with cephalic singletons at this institution from 2007-14. Overall and individual primary cesarean delivery rates were reported as percentages with exact Pearson 95% CI. Laborists were grouped by tertile as having low, medium or high cesarean delivery rates. Characteristics of the women delivered, indications for cesarean delivery, and short-term neonatal outcomes were compared between these groups. A binomial regression model of cesarean delivery was estimated, where the relative rates of each laborist compared to the lowest-unadjusted laborist rate were calculated; a second model was estimated to adjust for patient-level maternal characteristics. Results Twenty laborists delivered 2,224 nulliparous, term women with cephalic singletons. The overall cesarean delivery rate was 24.1% (95% CI 21.4-26.8). In an unadjusted binomial model, the overall effect of individual laborist was significant (pcesarean

  17. Classification rates: non‐parametric verses parametric models using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This research sought to establish if non parametric modeling achieves a higher correct classification ratio than a parametric model. The local likelihood technique was used to model fit the data sets. The same sets of data were modeled using parametric logit and the abilities of the two models to correctly predict the binary ...

  18. Associations of relative income deprivation with perceived happiness and self-rated health among the Hong Kong Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Chee Hon; Wong, Ho Kit; Yip, Paul Siu Fai

    2017-07-01

    To investigate the association of relative income deprivation (RID) with perceived happiness and self-rated health in Hong Kong. We measured RID on Yitzhaki indices constructed using multiple reference groups and used multilevel ordinal logistic regression models to assess its linkages with the two outcomes, using data from 6272 respondents from a large-scale representative household survey. Among the overall population, increased RID was found to be consistently associated with reduced perceived happiness, even after adjusting for respondents' level of absolute income and other socio-demographic covariates; however, there were no consistent associations between RID and self-rated health. In subgroup analysis, we observed significant linkages between RID and self-rated health only among men, the middle and older age ranges, and among those with less education and those not engaged in economic activities. Our findings suggest that RID is adversely associated with perceived happiness. However, its negative linkage with self-rated health is less clear. The weak tie between RID and self-rated health may relate to the Hong Kong context, where the public health system is relatively equitable and has multiple pro-poor health policies.

  19. Cross-lagged relations between teacher and parent ratings of children's task avoidance and different literacy skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgiou, George K; Hirvonen, Riikka; Manolitsis, George; Nurmi, Jari-Erik

    2017-09-01

    Task avoidance is a significant predictor of literacy skills. However, it remains unclear whether the relation between the two is reciprocal and whether it is affected by the type of literacy outcome, who is rating children's task avoidance, and the children's gender. The purpose of this longitudinal study was to examine the cross-lagged relations between teacher and parent ratings of children's task avoidance and different literacy skills. One hundred and seventy-two Greek children (91 girls, 81 boys) were followed from Grade 1 to Grade 3. Children were assessed on reading accuracy, reading fluency, and spelling to dictation. Parents and teachers rated the children's task-avoidant behaviour. Results of structural equation modelling showed that the cross-lagged relations varied as a function of the literacy outcome, who rated the children's task avoidance, and children's gender. Earlier reading and spelling performance predicted subsequent parent-rated task avoidance, but parent-rated task avoidance did not predict subsequent reading and spelling performance (with the exception of spelling in Grade 3). Teacher-rated task avoidance and reading fluency/spelling had a reciprocal relationship over time. In addition, the effects of teacher-rated task avoidance on future spelling were significantly stronger in boys than in girls. This suggests that poor reading and spelling performance can lead to subsequent task avoidance in both classroom and home situations. The fact that task avoidance permeates across different learning environments is alarming and calls for joint action from both parents and teachers to mitigate its negative impact on learning. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

  20. Hawkes process model with a time-dependent background rate and its application to high-frequency financial data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omi, Takahiro; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2017-07-01

    A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of variable-width basis functions, and the parameters are estimated by a Bayesian method. Our model can capture not only the slow time variation, such as in the intraday seasonality, but also the rapid one, which follows a macroeconomic news announcement. By analyzing the tick data of the Nikkei 225 mini, we find that (i) our model is better fitted to the data than the Hawkes models with a constant background rate or a slowly varying background rate, which have been commonly used in the field of quantitative finance; (ii) the improvement in the goodness-of-fit to the data by our model is significant especially for sessions where considerable fluctuation of the background rate is present; and (iii) our model is statistically consistent with the data. The branching ratio, which quantifies the level of the endogeneity of markets, estimated by our model is 0.41, suggesting the relative importance of exogenous factors in the market dynamics. We also demonstrate that it is critically important to appropriately model the time-dependent background rate for the branching ratio estimation.

  1. Hawkes process model with a time-dependent background rate and its application to high-frequency financial data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omi, Takahiro; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2017-07-01

    A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of variable-width basis functions, and the parameters are estimated by a Bayesian method. Our model can capture not only the slow time variation, such as in the intraday seasonality, but also the rapid one, which follows a macroeconomic news announcement. By analyzing the tick data of the Nikkei 225 mini, we find that (i) our model is better fitted to the data than the Hawkes models with a constant background rate or a slowly varying background rate, which have been commonly used in the field of quantitative finance; (ii) the improvement in the goodness-of-fit to the data by our model is significant especially for sessions where considerable fluctuation of the background rate is present; and (iii) our model is statistically consistent with the data. The branching ratio, which quantifies the level of the endogeneity of markets, estimated by our model is 0.41, suggesting the relative importance of exogenous factors in the market dynamics. We also demonstrate that it is critically important to appropriately model the time-dependent background rate for the branching ratio estimation.

  2. Response of insect relative growth rate to temperature and host-plant phenology: estimation and validation from field data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mamadou Ciss

    Full Text Available Between 1975 to 2011, aphid Relative Growth Rates (RGR were modelled as a function of mean outdoor temperature and host plant phenology. The model was applied to the grain aphid Sitobion avenae using data on aphid counts in winter wheat at two different climate regions in France (oceanic climate, Rennes (western France; continental climate, Paris. Mean observed aphid RGR was higher in Paris compared to the Rennes region. RGR increased with mean temperature, which is explained by aphid reproduction, growth and development being dependent on ambient temperature. From the stem extension to the heading stage in wheat, there was either a plateau in RGR values (Rennes or an increase with a maximum at heading (Paris due to high intrinsic rates of increase in aphids and also to aphid immigration. From the wheat flowering to the ripening stage, RGR decreased in both regions due to the low intrinsic rate of increase in aphids and high emigration rate linked to reduced nutrient quality in maturing wheat. The model validation process showed that the fitted models have more predictive power in the Paris region than in the Rennes region.

  3. Mathematical observations on the relation between eclosion periods and the copulation rate of cicadas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saisho, Yasumasa

    2010-04-01

    In many species of cicadas the peak of eclosion of males precedes that of females. In this paper, we construct a stochastic model and consider whether this sexual difference of eclosion periods works against mating or not. We also discuss the relation between the peak period of copulations and the development of population number by using this model.

  4. [The effect of assertiveness training on communication related factors and personnel turnover rate among hospital nurses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Myung Ja; Lee, Haejung

    2006-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of assertiveness training on nurses' assertive behaviors, interpersonal relations, communication conflicts, conflict management style and personnel turnover rate. A non-equivalent control group pretest-posttest design was used in this study. Nurses were assigned into the experimental or control groups, each consisting of 39 nurses. Data was collected between January to March 2004. An 'Assertiveness Training Program' for Nurses developed by Park was used for the study. To emphasize assertiveness practice, 5 practice sessions utilizing ABCDE principles were added to Park's program. To examine the effects of the program, differences between the two groups in assertive behaviors, interpersonal relations, communication conflicts, conflict management style and personnel turnover rate were analyzed using ANCOVA. The assertiveness training was effective in improving the nurses' assertiveness behaviors, but was not effective in improving interpersonal relations, reducing the subjects' communication conflicts, changing the conflict management style or reducing their personnel turnover rate. There have been many studies about factors affecting nurses' personnel turnover rates, but few have been done about methods of intervention to reduce the personnel turnover rate. Thus, this study provides a significant contribution in attempting such an intervention from nursing management perspectives.

  5. Testing Hypotheses in an I(2) Model with Applications to the Persistent Long Swings in the Dmk/$ Rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Juselius, Katarina; Frydman, Roman

    and persistent swings in the foreign exchange market between Germany and USA. The data analyzed consist of nominal exchange rates, relative prices, US inflation rate, two long-term interest rates and two short-term interest rates over the 1975-1999 period. One important aim of the paper is to demonstrate...... that by structuring the data with the help of the I(2) model one can achieve a better understanding of the empirical regularities underlying the persistent swings in nominal exchange rates, typical in periods of floating exchange rates...

  6. Handbook of latent variable and related models

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Sik-Yum

    2011-01-01

    This Handbook covers latent variable models, which are a flexible class of models for modeling multivariate data to explore relationships among observed and latent variables.- Covers a wide class of important models- Models and statistical methods described provide tools for analyzing a wide spectrum of complicated data- Includes illustrative examples with real data sets from business, education, medicine, public health and sociology.- Demonstrates the use of a wide variety of statistical, computational, and mathematical techniques.

  7. Using field feedback to estimate failure rates of safety-related systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brissaud, Florent

    2017-01-01

    The IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 functional safety standards encourage the use of field feedback to estimate the failure rates of safety-related systems, which is preferred than generic data. In some cases (if “Route 2_H” is adopted for the 'hardware safety integrity constraints”), this is even a requirement. This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals, depending if the failures are detected on-line (called 'detected failures', e.g. by automatic diagnostic tests) or only revealed by proof tests (called 'undetected failures'). Examples show that for the same duration and number of failures observed, the estimated failure rates are basically higher for “undetected failures” because, in this case, the duration observed includes intervals of time where it is unknown that the elements have failed. This points out the need of using a proper approach for failure rates estimation, especially for failures that are not detected on-line. Then, this paper proposes an approach to use the estimated failure rates, with their uncertainties, for PFDavg and PFH assessment with upper confidence bounds, in accordance with IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 requirements. Examples finally show that the highest SIL that can be claimed for a safety function can be limited by the 90% upper confidence bound of PFDavg or PFH. The requirements of the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 relating to the data collection and analysis should therefore be properly considered for the study of all safety-related systems. - Highlights: • This paper deals with requirements of the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 for using field feedback to estimate failure rates of safety-related systems. • This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals for failures that are detected on-line. • This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals for failures that are only revealed by

  8. Development in self-rated health among older people as determinant of social relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Avlund, Kirsten; Modvig, Jens Simon; Due, Pernille

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyse whether development in self-rated health (SRH) over four years was associated with the structure of and satisfaction with social relations, at four and eight years follow-up, among elderly women and men....

  9. Community Colleges and Labor Market Conditions: How Does Enrollment Demand Change Relative to Local Unemployment Rates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillman, Nicholas W.; Orians, Erica Lee

    2013-01-01

    This study uses fixed-effects panel data techniques to estimate the elasticity of community college enrollment demand relative to local unemployment rates. The findings suggest that community college enrollment demand is counter-cyclical to changes in the labor market, as enrollments rise during periods of weak economic conditions. Using national…

  10. State-related differences in heart rate variability in bipolar disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faurholt-Jepsen, Maria; Brage, Søren; Kessing, Lars Vedel

    2017-01-01

    Heart rate variability (HRV) is a validated measure of sympato-vagal balance in the autonomic nervous system. HRV appears decreased in patients with bipolar disorder (BD) compared with healthy individuals, but the extent of state-related alterations has been sparingly investigated. The present...... bipolar disorder and could...

  11. Job performance ratings : The relative importance of mental ability, conscientiousness, and career adaptability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ohme, Melanie; Zacher, Hannes

    According to career construction theory, continuous adaptation to the work environment is crucial to achieve work and career success. In this study, we examined the relative importance of career adaptability for job performance ratings using an experimental policy-capturing design. Employees (N =

  12. Citation Rate of Highly-Cited Papers in 100 Kinesiology-Related Journals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudson, Duane

    2015-01-01

    This study extended previous research on several citation-based bibliometric variables for highly cited articles in a large (N = 100) number of journals related to Kinesiology. Total citations and citation rate of the 30 most highly cited articles in each journal were identified by searchers of "Google Scholar (GS)". Other major…

  13. An estimator for the relative entropy rate of path measures for stochastic differential equations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Opper, Manfred, E-mail: manfred.opper@tu-berlin.de

    2017-02-01

    We address the problem of estimating the relative entropy rate (RER) for two stochastic processes described by stochastic differential equations. For the case where the drift of one process is known analytically, but one has only observations from the second process, we use a variational bound on the RER to construct an estimator.

  14. Modeling the cosmic-ray-induced soft-error rate in integrated circuits: An overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srinivasan, G.R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper is an overview of the concepts and methodologies used to predict soft-error rates (SER) due to cosmic and high-energy particle radiation in integrated circuit chips. The paper emphasizes the need for the SER simulation using the actual chip circuit model which includes device, process, and technology parameters as opposed to using either the discrete device simulation or generic circuit simulation that is commonly employed in SER modeling. Concepts such as funneling, event-by-event simulation, nuclear history files, critical charge, and charge sharing are examined. Also discussed are the relative importance of elastic and inelastic nuclear collisions, rare event statistics, and device vs. circuit simulations. The semi-empirical methodologies used in the aerospace community to arrive at SERs [also referred to as single-event upset (SEU) rates] in integrated circuit chips are reviewed. This paper is one of four in this special issue relating to SER modeling. Together, they provide a comprehensive account of this modeling effort, which has resulted in a unique modeling tool called the Soft-Error Monte Carlo Model, or SEMM

  15. Biomedical Progress Rates as New Parameters for Models of Economic Growth in Developed Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Zhavoronkov

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available While the doubling of life expectancy in developed countries during the 20th century can be attributed mostly to decreases in child mortality, the trillions of dollars spent on biomedical research by governments, foundations and corporations over the past sixty years are also yielding longevity dividends in both working and retired population. Biomedical progress will likely increase the healthy productive lifespan and the number of years of government support in the old age. In this paper we introduce several new parameters that can be applied to established models of economic growth: the biomedical progress rate, the rate of clinical adoption and the rate of change in retirement age. The biomedical progress rate is comprised of the rejuvenation rate (extending the productive lifespan and the non-rejuvenating rate (extending the lifespan beyond the age at which the net contribution to the economy becomes negative. While staying within the neoclassical economics framework and extending the overlapping generations (OLG growth model and assumptions from the life cycle theory of saving behavior, we provide an example of the relations between these new parameters in the context of demographics, labor, households and the firm.

  16. Biomedical progress rates as new parameters for models of economic growth in developed countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhavoronkov, Alex; Litovchenko, Maria

    2013-11-08

    While the doubling of life expectancy in developed countries during the 20th century can be attributed mostly to decreases in child mortality, the trillions of dollars spent on biomedical research by governments, foundations and corporations over the past sixty years are also yielding longevity dividends in both working and retired population. Biomedical progress will likely increase the healthy productive lifespan and the number of years of government support in the old age. In this paper we introduce several new parameters that can be applied to established models of economic growth: the biomedical progress rate, the rate of clinical adoption and the rate of change in retirement age. The biomedical progress rate is comprised of the rejuvenation rate (extending the productive lifespan) and the non-rejuvenating rate (extending the lifespan beyond the age at which the net contribution to the economy becomes negative). While staying within the neoclassical economics framework and extending the overlapping generations (OLG) growth model and assumptions from the life cycle theory of saving behavior, we provide an example of the relations between these new parameters in the context of demographics, labor, households and the firm.

  17. Electrochemical Corrosion Studies for Modeling Metallic Waste Form Release Rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poineau, Frederic; Tamalis, Dimitri

    2016-01-01

    The isotope 99 Tc is an important fission product generated from nuclear power production. Because of its long half-life (t 1/2 = 2.13 ∙ 105 years) and beta-radiotoxicity (β - = 292 keV), it is a major concern in the long-term management of spent nuclear fuel. In the spent nuclear fuel, Tc is present as an alloy with Mo, Ru, Rh, and Pd called the epsilon-phase, the relative amount of which increases with fuel burn-up. In some separation schemes for spent nuclear fuel, Tc would be separated from the spent fuel and disposed of in a durable waste form. Technetium waste forms under consideration include metallic alloys, oxide ceramics and borosilicate glass. In the development of a metallic waste form, after separation from the spent fuel, Tc would be converted to the metal, incorporated into an alloy and the resulting waste form stored in a repository. Metallic alloys under consideration include Tc–Zr alloys, Tc–stainless steel alloys and Tc–Inconel alloys (Inconel is an alloy of Ni, Cr and iron which is resistant to corrosion). To predict the long-term behavior of the metallic Tc waste form, understanding the corrosion properties of Tc metal and Tc alloys in various chemical environments is needed, but efforts to model the behavior of Tc metallic alloys are limited. One parameter that should also be considered in predicting the long-term behavior of the Tc waste form is the ingrowth of stable Ru that occurs from the radioactive decay of 99 Tc ( 99 Tc → 99 Ru + β - ). After a geological period of time, significant amounts of Ru will be present in the Tc and may affect its corrosion properties. Studying the effect of Ru on the corrosion behavior of Tc is also of importance. In this context, we studied the electrochemical behavior of Tc metal, Tc-Ni alloys (to model Tc-Inconel alloy) and Tc-Ru alloys in acidic media. The study of Tc-U alloys has also been performed in order to better understand the nature of Tc in metallic spent fuel. Computational modeling

  18. Electrochemical Corrosion Studies for Modeling Metallic Waste Form Release Rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poineau, Frederic [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Tamalis, Dimitri [Florida Memorial Univ., Miami Gardens, FL (United States)

    2016-08-01

    The isotope 99Tc is an important fission product generated from nuclear power production. Because of its long half-life (t1/2 = 2.13 ∙ 105 years) and beta-radiotoxicity (β⁻ = 292 keV), it is a major concern in the long-term management of spent nuclear fuel. In the spent nuclear fuel, Tc is present as an alloy with Mo, Ru, Rh, and Pd called the epsilon-phase, the relative amount of which increases with fuel burn-up. In some separation schemes for spent nuclear fuel, Tc would be separated from the spent fuel and disposed of in a durable waste form. Technetium waste forms under consideration include metallic alloys, oxide ceramics and borosilicate glass. In the development of a metallic waste form, after separation from the spent fuel, Tc would be converted to the metal, incorporated into an alloy and the resulting waste form stored in a repository. Metallic alloys under consideration include Tc–Zr alloys, Tc–stainless steel alloys and Tc–Inconel alloys (Inconel is an alloy of Ni, Cr and iron which is resistant to corrosion). To predict the long-term behavior of the metallic Tc waste form, understanding the corrosion properties of Tc metal and Tc alloys in various chemical environments is needed, but efforts to model the behavior of Tc metallic alloys are limited. One parameter that should also be considered in predicting the long-term behavior of the Tc waste form is the ingrowth of stable Ru that occurs from the radioactive decay of 99Tc (99Tc → 99Ru + β⁻). After a geological period of time, significant amounts of Ru will be present in the Tc and may affect its corrosion properties. Studying the effect of Ru on the corrosion behavior of Tc is also of importance. In this context, we studied the electrochemical behavior of Tc metal, Tc-Ni alloys (to model Tc-Inconel alloy) and Tc-Ru alloys in acidic media. The study of Tc-U alloys has also been performed in order to better understand the

  19. Interest rate models for pension and insurance regulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broeders, Dirk; de Jong, Frank; Schotman, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Liabilities of pension funds and life insurers typically have very long times to maturity. The valuation of such liabilities introduces particular challenges as it relies on long term interest rates. As the market for long term interest rates is less liquid, financial institutions and the regulator

  20. Interest Rate Models for Pension and Insurance Regulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broeders, D.W.G.A.; de Jong, Frank; Schotman, Peter

    Liabilities of pension funds and life insurers typically have very long times to maturity. The valuation of such liabilities introduces particular challenges as it relies on long term interest rates. As the market for long term interest rates is less liquid, financial institutions and the regulator

  1. Modelling the filling rate of pit latrines | Brouckaert | Water SA

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Excreta (faeces and urine) that are deposited into a pit latrine are subject to biodegradation, which substantially reduces the volume that remains. On the other hand, other matter that is not biodegradable usually finds itsway into pit latrines. The net filling rate is thus dependent on both the rate of addition of material and its ...

  2. Inference of type-specific HPV transmissibility, progression and clearance rates: a mathematical modelling approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen C Johnson

    Full Text Available Quantifying rates governing the clearance of Human Papillomavirus (HPV and its progression to clinical disease, together with viral transmissibility and the duration of naturally-acquired immunity, is essential in estimating the impact of vaccination programmes and screening or testing regimes. However, the complex natural history of HPV makes this difficult. We infer the viral transmissibility, rate of waning natural immunity and rates of progression and clearance of infection of 13 high-risk and 2 non-oncogenic HPV types, making use of a number of rich datasets from Sweden. Estimates of viral transmissibility, clearance of initial infection and waning immunity were derived in a Bayesian framework by fitting a susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS transmission model to age- and type-specific HPV prevalence data from both a cross-sectional study and a randomised controlled trial (RCT of primary HPV screening. The models fitted well, but over-estimated the prevalence of four high-risk types with respect to the data. Three of these types (HPV-33, -35 and -58 are among the most closely related phylogenetically to the most prevalent HPV-16. The fourth (HPV-45 is the most closely related to HPV-18; the second most prevalent type. We suggest that this may be an indicator of cross-immunity. Rates of progression and clearance of clinical lesions were additionally estimated from longitudinal data gathered as part of the same RCT. Our estimates of progression and clearance rates are consistent with the findings of survival analysis studies and we extend the literature by estimating progression and clearance rates for non-16 and non-18 high-risk types. We anticipate that such type-specific estimates will be useful in the parameterisation of further models and in developing our understanding of HPV natural history.

  3. The Effects Of Asymmetric Transmission Of Exchange Rate On Inflation In Iran: Application Of Threshold Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naghdi Yazdan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Given the recent fluctuation in the exchange rate and the presence of several factors such as the various economy-political sanctions (mainly embargos on oil and banking, extreme volatility in different economic fields, and consequently the devaluation of national and public procurement -A landmark that is emanating from exchange rate fluctuation - two points should be noted: First, it is essential to review the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on macro economic variables such as inflation and to provide appropriate policies. Second, the existence of this condition provides the chance to study the relation between exchange rate and inflation in a non-linear and asymmetric method. Hence, the present study seeks to use TAR model and, on the basis of monthly time series data over the period March 2002 to March 2014, to analyze the cross-asymmetric and non-linear exchange rate on consumer price index (CPI in Iran. The results also show the presence of an asymmetric long-term relationship between these variables (exchange rate and CPI. Also, in the Iranian economy, the effect of negative shocks of exchange rate on inflation is more sustainable than the one from positive shocks.

  4. A simplified 137Cs transport model for estimating erosion rates in undisturbed soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xinbao; Long Yi; He Xiubin; Fu Jiexiong; Zhang Yunqi

    2008-01-01

    137 Cs is an artificial radionuclide with a half-life of 30.12 years which released into the environment as a result of atmospheric testing of thermo-nuclear weapons primarily during the period of 1950s-1970s with the maximum rate of 137 Cs fallout from atmosphere in 1963. 137 Cs fallout is strongly and rapidly adsorbed by fine particles in the surface horizons of the soil, when it falls down on the ground mostly with precipitation. Its subsequent redistribution is associated with movements of the soil or sediment particles. The 137 Cs nuclide tracing technique has been used for assessment of soil losses for both undisturbed and cultivated soils. For undisturbed soils, a simple profile-shape model was developed in 1990 to describe the 137 Cs depth distribution in profile, where the maximum 137 Cs occurs in the surface horizon and it exponentially decreases with depth. The model implied that the total 137 Cs fallout amount deposited on the earth surface in 1963 and the 137 Cs profile shape has not changed with time. The model has been widely used for assessment of soil losses on undisturbed land. However, temporal variations of 137 Cs depth distribution in undisturbed soils after its deposition on the ground due to downward transport processes are not considered in the previous simple profile-shape model. Thus, the soil losses are overestimated by the model. On the base of the erosion assessment model developed by Walling, D.E., He, Q. [1999. Improved models for estimating soil erosion rates from cesium-137 measurements. Journal of Environmental Quality 28, 611-622], we discuss the 137 Cs transport process in the eroded soil profile and make some simplification to the model, develop a method to estimate the soil erosion rate more expediently. To compare the soil erosion rates calculated by the simple profile-shape model and the simple transport model, the soil losses related to different 137 Cs loss proportions of the reference inventory at the Kaixian site of the

  5. Comparison of various models on cancer rate and forecasting ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    model and the quadratic trend model and the results of the work compared. Data collected ... Keywords: Cancer, Tumor, Leukemia, Linear Regression, Mean Percentage Error. Cancer is a .... by a simple mathematical method. The quadratic ...

  6. Survival and reproductive rate of mites in relation to resistance of their barn swallow hosts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, A P

    2000-08-01

    Parasite resistance may act via a number of different mechanisms that regulate or control the survival and the reproductive rate of parasites. Observations and experiments were used to test for effects of host resistance on parasite survival and rate of reproduction. Natural levels of infestation of barn swallow Hirundo rustica nests by the tropical fowl mite Ornithonyssus bursa were positively related to brood size, inversely related to the length of the outermost tail feathers of male nest owners (a secondary sexual character) and affected by time of reproduction by the host. A mite inoculation experiment, in which 50 adult mites were introduced into nests during the laying period of the host, was used to test for differential survival and reproduction of mites as a function of host resistance. The relationship between survival and reproduction of parasites, male tail length and host resistance was investigated. There was a negative relationship between mite numbers per nest after fledging of nestlings and male tail length. This relationship was mainly caused by a reduction in the number of mites in the first and second nymph stage with increasing tail length of male hosts, implying a reduction in rate of reproduction of mites. The proportion of mites that had recently fed was inversely related to tail length of male hosts. The proportion of nymph stages was positively related to the proportion of mites that had recently had a blood meal. Parasite resistance of barn swallows to the tropical fowl mite thus appeared to act through increased mortality rate of adult and nymph stages of mites, and through reduced reproductive rates of mites on resistant hosts. This is the first study demonstating a direct relationship between fitness components of a parasite and the expression of a secondary sexual character of a host.

  7. Temporal discounting rates and their relation to exercise behavior in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tate, Linda M; Tsai, Pao-Feng; Landes, Reid D; Rettiganti, Mallikarjuna; Lefler, Leanne L

    2015-12-01

    As our nation's population ages, the rates of chronic illness and disability are expected to increase significantly. Despite the knowledge that exercise may prevent chronic disease and promote health among older adults, many still are inactive. Factors related to exercise behaviors have been explored in recent years. However, temporal discounting is a motivational concept that has not been explored in regard to exercise in older adults. Temporal discounting is a decision making process by which an individual chooses a smaller more immediate reward over a larger delayed reward. The aim of this study was to determine if temporal discounting rates vary between exercising and non-exercising older adults. This study used cross-sectional survey of 137 older adults living in the community. Older adults were recruited from 11 rural Arkansas churches. The Kirby delay-discounting Monetary Choice Questionnaire was used to collect discounting rates and then bivariate analysis was performed to compare temporal discounting rate between the exercisers and non-exercisers. Finally, multivariate analysis was used to compare discounting rate controlling for other covariates. The results indicated that exercising older adults display lower temporal discounting rates than non-exercising older adults. After controlling for education, exercisers still have lower temporal discounting rates than non-exercisers (phealth conditions relate to lack of exercise especially in older adults. This research suggests that if we can find appropriate incentives for discounting individuals, some type of immediate reward, then potentially we can design programs to engage and retain older adults in exercise. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Improving Rice Modeling Success Rate with Ternary Non-structural Fertilizer Response Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Juan; Zhang, Mingqing; Chen, Fang; Yao, Baoquan

    2018-06-13

    Fertilizer response modelling is an important technical approach to realize metrological fertilization on rice. With the goal of solving the problems of a low success rate of a ternary quadratic polynomial model (TPFM) and to expand the model's applicability, this paper established a ternary non-structural fertilizer response model (TNFM) based on the experimental results from N, P and K fertilized rice fields. Our research results showed that the TNFM significantly improved the modelling success rate by addressing problems arising from setting the bias and multicollinearity in a TPFM. The results from 88 rice field trials in China indicated that the proportion of typical TNFMs that satisfy the general fertilizer response law of plant nutrition was 40.9%, while the analogous proportion of TPFMs was only 26.1%. The recommended fertilization showed a significant positive linear correlation between the two models, and the parameters N 0 , P 0 and K 0 that estimated the value of soil supplying nutrient equivalents can be used as better indicators of yield potential in plots where no N or P or K fertilizer was applied. The theoretical analysis showed that the new model has a higher fitting accuracy and a wider application range.

  9. Bacterial growth on surfaces: Automated image analysis for quantification of growth rate-related parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, S.; Sternberg, Claus; Poulsen, L. K.

    1995-01-01

    species-specific hybridizations with fluorescence-labelled ribosomal probes to estimate the single-cell concentration of RNA. By automated analysis of digitized images of stained cells, we determined four independent growth rate-related parameters: cellular RNA and DNA contents, cell volume......, and the frequency of dividing cells in a cell population. These parameters were used to compare physiological states of liquid-suspended and surfacegrowing Pseudomonas putida KT2442 in chemostat cultures. The major finding is that the correlation between substrate availability and cellular growth rate found...

  10. empirical model for predicting rate of biogas production

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    users

    Rate of biogas production using cow manure as substrate was monitored in two laboratory scale ... Biogas is a Gas obtained by anaerobic ... A. A. Adamu, Petroleum and Natural Gas Processing Department, Petroleum Training Institute, P.M.B..

  11. Relation between nonlinear models and gauge ambiguities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balachandran, A.P.; Ramachandran, R.; Rupertsberger, H.; Skagerstam, B.S.

    1980-01-01

    We show that the solutions of a class of nonlinear models also generate gauge ambiguities in the vacuum sector of Yang-Mills theories. Our results extend known connections between gauge ambiguities and certain nonlinear sigma-models, and clarify the underlying group theory. For many nonlinear models, we also give a simple, intrinsic parametrization of physical fields (which have values in a homogeneous space of a group). (orig.)

  12. Plan Recognition using Statistical Relational Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-25

    corresponding undirected model can be significantly more complex since there is no closed form solution for the maximum-likelihood set of parameters unlike in...algorithm did not scale to larger training sets, and the overall results are still not competitive with BALPs. 5In directed models, a closed form solution...opinions of ARO, DARPA, NSF or any other government agency. References Albrecht DW, Zukerman I, Nicholson AE. Bayesian models for keyhole plan

  13. Relation Between Rates of Geriatric Suicide and Consumption of Alcohol Beverages in European Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leo Sher

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Among older adults, suicide is a significant and persistent health problem. The highest suicide rate is found among white men aged 65 years and older. The causes of elder suicide are multifaceted. Although no predominate factor precipitates or explains geriatric suicide, alcohol is strongly linked to suicide attempts and completions. This study examined the relationship between rates of suicide in 65- to 74-year-olds and per capita consumption of alcoholic beverages in European countries. Data on suicide rates in 65- to 74-year-olds and per capita consumption of alcoholic beverages were obtained from the World Health Organization databases. Correlations were computed to examine relationships between suicide rates in 65- to 74-year-old males and females and per capita consumption of beer, wine, and spirits in the general population in 34 European countries. There was a positive correlation between suicide rates in 65- to 74-year-old males and per capita consumption of spirits. No correlations between suicide rates in 65- to 74-year-old males and per capita consumption of beer or wine were found. We also found no correlations between rates of suicide in 65- to 74-year-old females and per capita consumption of beer, wine, or spirits. The results of this study are consistent with reports that consumption of spirits is associated with suicide events. It is to be hoped that this paper will stimulate further studies that are necessary to clarify the relation between suicide rates in different age groups and consumption of alcoholic beverages, and attract more attention to the problem of geriatric suicide.

  14. Can Low-Resolution Airborne Laser Scanning Data Be Used to Model Stream Rating Curves?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve W. Lyon

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This pilot study explores the potential of using low-resolution (0.2 points/m2 airborne laser scanning (ALS-derived elevation data to model stream rating curves. Rating curves, which allow the functional translation of stream water depth into discharge, making them integral to water resource monitoring efforts, were modeled using a physics-based approach that captures basic geometric measurements to establish flow resistance due to implicit channel roughness. We tested synthetically thinned high-resolution (more than 2 points/m2 ALS data as a proxy for low-resolution data at a point density equivalent to that obtained within most national-scale ALS strategies. Our results show that the errors incurred due to the effect of low-resolution versus high-resolution ALS data were less than those due to flow measurement and empirical rating curve fitting uncertainties. As such, although there likely are scale and technical limitations to consider, it is theoretically possible to generate rating curves in a river network from ALS data of the resolution anticipated within national-scale ALS schemes (at least for rivers with relatively simple geometries. This is promising, since generating rating curves from ALS scans would greatly enhance our ability to monitor streamflow by simplifying the overall effort required.

  15. Can low-resolution airborne laser scanning data be used to model stream rating curves?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyon, Steve; Nathanson, Marcus; Lam, Norris; Dahlke, Helen; Rutzinger, Martin; Kean, Jason W.; Laudon, Hjalmar

    2015-01-01

    This pilot study explores the potential of using low-resolution (0.2 points/m2) airborne laser scanning (ALS)-derived elevation data to model stream rating curves. Rating curves, which allow the functional translation of stream water depth into discharge, making them integral to water resource monitoring efforts, were modeled using a physics-based approach that captures basic geometric measurements to establish flow resistance due to implicit channel roughness. We tested synthetically thinned high-resolution (more than 2 points/m2) ALS data as a proxy for low-resolution data at a point density equivalent to that obtained within most national-scale ALS strategies. Our results show that the errors incurred due to the effect of low-resolution versus high-resolution ALS data were less than those due to flow measurement and empirical rating curve fitting uncertainties. As such, although there likely are scale and technical limitations to consider, it is theoretically possible to generate rating curves in a river network from ALS data of the resolution anticipated within national-scale ALS schemes (at least for rivers with relatively simple geometries). This is promising, since generating rating curves from ALS scans would greatly enhance our ability to monitor streamflow by simplifying the overall effort required.

  16. Relative measurement of the excitation rate coefficients of the FeXI ion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marotta, A.

    1982-01-01

    The collision rate coefficients for the iron atoms are measured through the hot plasma obtainment. The physical model used in this determination is the crown stationary model which consider that the excitation by electronic collisions is balanced by the spontaneous emission. This work was realized in a 15Kj theta pinch device, of high pulse reproductibility. The iron-pentacarbonyl [Fe(Co) 5 ] was used as the impurity source of a hydrogen gas. The temperature and density were determined by the scattering light analysis of a rubi laser using the Thomson scattering. (L.C.) [pt

  17. Stigma, Attitudes, and Help-Seeking Intentions for Psychological Problems in Relation to Regional Suicide Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynders, Alexandre; Kerkhof, Ad J F M; Molenberghs, Geert; Van Audenhove, Chantal

    2016-02-01

    In this ecological study, we investigated whether help-seeking related to stigma, intentions, and attitudes toward suicide are associated with the suicide rates of 20 regions within the Netherlands and Belgium. Significant associations were found between regional suicide rates and the intention to seek informal help (β = -1.47, p = .001), self-stigma (β = 1.33, p = .038), and shame (β = .71, p = .030). The association between self-stigma and suicide rate was mediated by intentions to seek informal help. These results suggest that to promote suicide prevention at the level of the regional population, stigma, shame, and intentions to seek help should be targeted in the public domain. © 2015 The American Association of Suicidology.

  18. Deep Learning versus Professional Healthcare Equipment: A Fine-Grained Breathing Rate Monitoring Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bang Liu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In mHealth field, accurate breathing rate monitoring technique has benefited a broad array of healthcare-related applications. Many approaches try to use smartphone or wearable device with fine-grained monitoring algorithm to accomplish the task, which can only be done by professional medical equipment before. However, such schemes usually result in bad performance in comparison to professional medical equipment. In this paper, we propose DeepFilter, a deep learning-based fine-grained breathing rate monitoring algorithm that works on smartphone and achieves professional-level accuracy. DeepFilter is a bidirectional recurrent neural network (RNN stacked with convolutional layers and speeded up by batch normalization. Moreover, we collect 16.17 GB breathing sound recording data of 248 hours from 109 and another 10 volunteers to train and test our model, respectively. The results show a reasonably good accuracy of breathing rate monitoring.

  19. Modeling Flow Rate to Estimate Hydraulic Conductivity in a Parabolic Ceramic Water Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ileana Wald

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this project we model volumetric flow rate through a parabolic ceramic water filter (CWF to determine how quickly it can process water while still improving its quality. The volumetric flow rate is dependent upon the pore size of the filter, the surface area, and the height of water in the filter (hydraulic head. We derive differential equations governing this flow from the conservation of mass principle and Darcy's Law and find the flow rate with respect to time. We then use methods of calculus to find optimal specifications for the filter. This work is related to the research conducted in Dr. James R. Mihelcic's Civil and Environmental Engineering Lab at USF.

  20. Identification of strain-rate and thermal sensitive material model with an inverse method

    CERN Document Server

    Peroni, L; Peroni, M

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes a numerical inverse method to extract material strength parameters from the experimental data obtained via mechanical tests at different strain-rates and temperatures. It will be shown that this procedure is particularly useful to analyse experimental results when the stress-strain fields in the specimen cannot be correctly described via analytical models. This commonly happens in specimens with no regular shape, in specimens with a regular shape when some instability phenomena occur (for example the necking phenomena in tensile tests that create a strongly heterogeneous stress-strain fields) or in dynamic tests (where the strain-rate field is not constant due to wave propagation phenomena). Furthermore the developed procedure is useful to take into account thermal phenomena generally affecting high strain-rate tests due to the adiabatic overheating related to the conversion of plastic work. The method presented requires strong effort both from experimental and numerical point of view, an...

  1. The impact of varicella vaccination on varicella-related hospitalization rates: global data review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirose, Maki; Gilio, Alfredo Elias; Ferronato, Angela Esposito; Ragazzi, Selma Lopes Betta

    2016-09-01

    to describe the impact of varicella vaccination on varicella-related hospitalization rates in countries that implemented universal vaccination against the disease. we identified countries that implemented universal vaccination against varicella at the http://apps.who.int/immunization_monitoring/globalsummary/schedules site of the World Health Organization and selected articles in Pubmed describing the changes (pre/post-vaccination) in the varicella-related hospitalization rates in these countries, using the Keywords "varicella", "vaccination/vaccine" and "children" (or) "hospitalization". Publications in English published between January 1995 and May 2015 were included. 24 countries with universal vaccination against varicella and 28 articles describing the impact of the vaccine on varicella-associated hospitalizations rates in seven countries were identified. The US had 81.4% -99.2% reduction in hospitalization rates in children younger than four years after 6-14 years after the onset of universal vaccination (1995), with vaccination coverage of 90%; Uruguay: 94% decrease (children aged 1-4 years) in six years, vaccination coverage of 90%; Canada: 93% decrease (age 1-4 years) in 10 years, coverage of 93%; Germany: 62.4% decrease (age 1-4 years) in 8 years, coverage of 78.2%; Australia: 76.8% decrease (age 1-4 years) in 5 years, coverage of 90%; Spain: 83.5% decrease (age <5 years) in four years, coverage of 77.2% and Italy 69.7% -73.8% decrease (general population), coverage of 60%-95%. The publications showed variations in the percentage of decrease in varicella-related hospitalization rates after universal vaccination in the assessed countries; the results probably depend on the time since the implementation of universal vaccination, differences in the studied age group, hospital admission criteria, vaccination coverage and strategy, which does not allow direct comparison between data. Copyright © 2016 Sociedade de Pediatria de São Paulo. Publicado por

  2. The impact of varicella vaccination on varicella-related hospitalization rates: global data review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maki Hirose

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective: To describe the impact of varicella vaccination on varicella-related hospitalization rates in countries that implemented universal vaccination against the disease. Data source: We identified countries that implemented universal vaccination against varicella at the http://apps.who.int/immunization_monitoring/globalsummary/schedules site of the World Health Organization and selected articles in Pubmed describing the changes (pre/post-vaccination in the varicella-related hospitalization rates in these countries, using the Keywords "varicella", "vaccination/vaccine" and "children" (or "hospitalization". Publications in English published between January 1995 and May 2015 were included. Data synthesis: 24 countries with universal vaccination against varicella and 28 articles describing the impact of the vaccine on varicella-associated hospitalizations rates in seven countries were identified. The US had 81.4%–99.2% reduction in hospitalization rates in children younger than four years, 6–14 years after the onset of universal vaccination (1995, with vaccination coverage of 90%; Uruguay: 94% decrease (children aged 1–4 years in six years, vaccination coverage of 90%; Canada: 93% decrease (age 1–4 years in 10 years, coverage of 93%; Germany: 62.4% decrease (age 1–4 years in 8 years, coverage of 78.2%; Australia: 76.8% decrease (age 1–4 years in 5 years, coverage of 90%; Spain: 83.5% decrease (age <5 years in four years, coverage of 77.2% and Italy 69.7%–73.8% decrease (general population, coverage of 60%–95%. Conclusions: The publications showed variations in the percentage of decrease in varicella-related hospitalization rates after universal vaccination in the assessed countries; the results probably depend on the time since the implementation of universal vaccination, differences in the studied age group, hospital admission criteria, vaccination coverage and strategy, which does not allow direct comparison between

  3. Fuzzy production planning models for an unreliable production system with fuzzy production rate and stochastic/fuzzy demand rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. A. Halim

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we consider a single-unit unreliable production system which produces a single item. During a production run, the production process may shift from the in-control state to the out-of-control state at any random time when it produces some defective items. The defective item production rate is assumed to be imprecise and is characterized by a trapezoidal fuzzy number. The production rate is proportional to the demand rate where the proportionality constant is taken to be a fuzzy number. Two production planning models are developed on the basis of fuzzy and stochastic demand patterns. The expected cost per unit time in the fuzzy sense is derived in each model and defuzzified by using the graded mean integration representation method. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the optimal results of the proposed fuzzy models.

  4. An integrated supply chain model for the perishable items with fuzzy production rate and fuzzy demand rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Chaman

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the changing market scenario, supply chain management is getting phenomenal importance amongst researchers. Studies on supply chain management have emphasized the importance of a long-term strategic relationship between the manufacturer, distributor and retailer. In the present paper, a model has been developed by assuming that the demand rate and production rate as triangular fuzzy numbers and items deteriorate at a constant rate. The expressions for the average inventory cost are obtained both in crisp and fuzzy sense. The fuzzy model is defuzzified using the fuzzy extension principle, and its optimization with respect to the decision variable is also carried out. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the model and sensitivity analysis is performed to study the effect of parameters.

  5. Mixed effects modeling of proliferation rates in cell-based models: consequence for pharmacogenomics and cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hae Kyung Im

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The International HapMap project has made publicly available extensive genotypic data on a number of lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs. Building on this resource, many research groups have generated a large amount of phenotypic data on these cell lines to facilitate genetic studies of disease risk or drug response. However, one problem that may reduce the usefulness of these resources is the biological noise inherent to cellular phenotypes. We developed a novel method, termed Mixed Effects Model Averaging (MEM, which pools data from multiple sources and generates an intrinsic cellular growth rate phenotype. This intrinsic growth rate was estimated for each of over 500 HapMap cell lines. We then examined the association of this intrinsic growth rate with gene expression levels and found that almost 30% (2,967 out of 10,748 of the genes tested were significant with FDR less than 10%. We probed further to demonstrate evidence of a genetic effect on intrinsic growth rate by determining a significant enrichment in growth-associated genes among genes targeted by top growth-associated SNPs (as eQTLs. The estimated intrinsic growth rate as well as the strength of the association with genetic variants and gene expression traits are made publicly available through a cell-based pharmacogenomics database, PACdb. This resource should enable researchers to explore the mediating effects of proliferation rate on other phenotypes.

  6. Self-rated health, psychosocial functioning, and health-related behavior among Thai adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Randy M; Suwanteerangkul, Jiraporn

    2009-02-01

    Despite the popularity of self-rated health (SRH) in Western countries as a useful public health tool, it has only rarely been used in Asian countries. The purpose of the current study was to determine whether measures of psychosocial functioning and health-related factors differ according to SRH in a school-based sample of Thai adolescents. The survey was given to 2519 adolescents attending 10 coeducational secondary high schools in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand and included measures of psychosocial functioning (loneliness, hopelessness, shyness, perceptions of social status, self-rated happiness, and perception of physical attractiveness) and certain health-related factors (height/weight, physical activity, eating breakfast, sleep). The proportion of boys (5.1%) reporting that they were not healthy was similar to the proportion of girls (4.6%) making the same rating. These adolescents showed a pattern of overall poor health risk. Compared to adolescent peers who rated their health as healthy or very healthy, they were less physically active, got less sleep, were more likely to be overweight, and scored lower on loneliness, shyness, hopelessness, and self-rated happiness. The present pattern of poor health risk warrants attention and supports the merit of using SRH in adolescent health assessment. SRH is easy to obtain and simple to assess and single-item assessments of SRH appear to be valid measures of health status in adults and adolescent. Interventions, such as health counseling, mental health counseling, and health education, can target adolescents who rate themselves as 'not healthy' or report poor health status.

  7. Testing the Monetary Model for Exchange Rate Determination in South Africa: Evidence from 101 Years of Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riané de Bruyn

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Evidence in favor of the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand is, at best, mixed. A co-integrating relationship between the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals forms the basis of the monetary model. With the econometric literature suggesting that the span of the data, not the frequency, determines the power of the co-integration tests and the studies on South Africa primarily using short-span data from the post-Bretton Woods era, we decided to test the long-run monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand relative to the US Dollar using annual data from 1910 – 2010. The results provide some support for the monetary model in that long-run co-integration is found between the nominal exchange rate and the output and money supply deviations. However, the theoretical restrictions required by the monetary model are rejected. A vector error-correction model identifies both the nominal exchange rate and the monetary fundamentals as the channel for the adjustment process of deviations from the long-run equilibrium exchange rate. A subsequent comparison of nominal exchange rate forecasts based on the monetary model with those of the random walk model suggests that the forecasting performance of the monetary model is superior.

  8. Validity study of the Beck Anxiety Inventory (Portuguese version by the Rasch Rating Scale model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sónia Quintão

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Our objective was to conduct a validation study of the Portuguese version of the Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI by means of the Rasch Rating Scale Model, and then compare it with the most used scales of anxiety in Portugal. The sample consisted of 1,160 adults (427 men and 733 women, aged 18-82 years old (M=33.39; SD=11.85. Instruments were Beck Anxiety Inventory, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and Zung Self-Rating Anxiety Scale. It was found that Beck Anxiety Inventory's system of four categories, the data-model fit, and people reliability were adequate. The measure can be considered as unidimensional. Gender and age-related differences were not a threat to the validity. BAI correlated significantly with other anxiety measures. In conclusion, BAI shows good psychometric quality.

  9. Pricing Asian Interest Rate Options with a Three-Factor HJM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Henrique Barbedo

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Pricing interest rate derivatives is a challenging task that has attracted the attention of many researchers in recent decades. Portfolio and risk managers, policymakers, traders and more generally all market participants are looking for valuable information from derivative instruments. We use a standard procedure to implement the HJM model and to price IDI options. We intend to assess the importance of the principal components of pricing and interest rate hedging derivatives in Brazil, one of the major emerging markets. Our results indicate that the HJM model consistently underprices IDI options traded in the over-the-counter market while it overprices long-term options traded in the exchange studied. We also find a direct relationship between time to maturity and pricing error and a negative relation with moneyness.

  10. Effects of Context and Relative Rank on Mate Choice and Affiliation Ratings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Lynne Honey

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Female dominance has not often been studied as a factor in mate choice and other social interactions. When it has been examined, there have been a number of conflicting findings. The present study was designed to clarify interpretations of a study conducted by Brown and Lewis (2004 that found that men prefer subordinate women in a workplace context. We presented participants with information about the relative rank of physically attractive targets, in two very different contexts (work-related and recreational. We found that the context in which rank cues are presented has an impact on affiliation ratings, but that cues of rank do not affect mate choice ratings. Future studies of effects of dominance must take into account the context in which they are presented, and recognize that rank may not be a sufficient indicator of dominance for the purpose of mate choice by both men and women.

  11. Influence of the relative deformation rate on tube processing by ultrasonic vibration drawing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Susan, M.; Bujoreanu, L. G.; Galusca, D. G.; Munteanu, C.; Lliescu, V.

    2004-01-01

    After a brief review of the friction reversion mechanism during ultrasonic vibration drawing of tubes (UVD), the paper introduces a method to determine the drawing force based on the theorem of total consumed power, in the case of tube processing. The experiments performed on tubes made from 10TiNiCr180 (AISI321) austenitic stainless steel confirm the superiority of UVD technology regarding the diminution of the drawing force, the increase of the plasticity and the improvement of the safety coefficient, tendencies that are enhanced with the decrease of the relative drawing rate. The best results were obtained for the relative drawing rate of 0.12 for which the drawing force decreased with 33%, plasticity increased with 9% and safety coefficient with 22%, as compared to CT. (Author) 10 refs

  12. Novel relations between the ergodic capacity and the average bit error rate

    KAUST Repository

    Yilmaz, Ferkan

    2011-11-01

    Ergodic capacity and average bit error rate have been widely used to compare the performance of different wireless communication systems. As such recent scientific research and studies revealed strong impact of designing and implementing wireless technologies based on these two performance indicators. However and to the best of our knowledge, the direct links between these two performance indicators have not been explicitly proposed in the literature so far. In this paper, we propose novel relations between the ergodic capacity and the average bit error rate of an overall communication system using binary modulation schemes for signaling with a limited bandwidth and operating over generalized fading channels. More specifically, we show that these two performance measures can be represented in terms of each other, without the need to know the exact end-to-end statistical characterization of the communication channel. We validate the correctness and accuracy of our newly proposed relations and illustrated their usefulness by considering some classical examples. © 2011 IEEE.

  13. Development in self-rated health among older people as determinant of social relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Rikke; Avlund, Kirsten; Modvig, Jens

    2004-01-01

    .3-5.2) in the two-point analyses. Furthermore, a deterioration in SRH predicted poor contact satisfaction OR=2.8 (1.7-4.5). All analyses were adjusted for age, gender, mental health, functional ability, cohabitation status, and a measure of social relations at baseline. Results for the three-point analyses were......AIM: The purpose of this study was to analyse whether development in self-rated health (SRH) over four years was associated with the structure of and satisfaction with social relations, at four and eight years follow-up, among elderly women and men. METHODS: A longitudinal questionnaire-based study...

  14. Testing hypotheses in an I(2) model with applications to the persistent long swings in the Dmk/$ rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Juselius, Katarina; Frydman, Roman

    long-term interest rates and two short-term interest rates over the 1975-1999 period. One important aim of the paper is to demonstrate that by structuring the data with the help of the I(2) model one can achieve a better understanding of the empirical regularities underlying the persistent swings...... components in the I(2) model is discussed at some length. Model specification and tests are illustrated with an empirical analysis of long and persistent swings in the foreign exchange market between Germany and USA. The data analyzed consist of nominal exchange rates, relative prices, US inflation rate, two...... in nominal exchange rates, typical in periods of floating exchange rates....

  15. Molecular model for annihilation rates in positron complexes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Assafrao, Denise [Laboratorio de Atomos e Moleculas Especiais, Departamento de Fisica, ICEx, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, P.O. Box 702, 30123-970 Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, Queen' s University of Belfast, Belfast BT7 1NN, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Walters, H.R. James [Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, Queen' s University of Belfast, Belfast BT7 1NN, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Mohallem, Jose R. [Laboratorio de Atomos e Moleculas Especiais, Departamento de Fisica, ICEx, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, P.O. Box 702, 30123-970 Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, Queen' s University of Belfast, Belfast BT7 1NN, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom)], E-mail: rachid@fisica.ufmg.br

    2008-02-15

    The molecular approach for positron interaction with atoms is developed further. Potential energy curves for positron motion are obtained. Two procedures accounting for the nonadiabatic effective positron mass are introduced for calculating annihilation rate constants. The first one takes the bound-state energy eigenvalue as an input parameter. The second is a self-contained and self-consistent procedure. The methods are tested with quite different states of the small complexes HPs, e{sup +}He (electronic triplet) and e{sup +}Be (electronic singlet and triplet). For states yielding the positronium cluster, the annihilation rates are quite stable, irrespective of the accuracy in binding energies. For the e{sup +}Be states, annihilation rates are larger and more consistent with qualitative predictions than previously reported ones.

  16. Molecular model for annihilation rates in positron complexes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assafrao, Denise; Walters, H.R. James; Mohallem, Jose R.

    2008-01-01

    The molecular approach for positron interaction with atoms is developed further. Potential energy curves for positron motion are obtained. Two procedures accounting for the nonadiabatic effective positron mass are introduced for calculating annihilation rate constants. The first one takes the bound-state energy eigenvalue as an input parameter. The second is a self-contained and self-consistent procedure. The methods are tested with quite different states of the small complexes HPs, e + He (electronic triplet) and e + Be (electronic singlet and triplet). For states yielding the positronium cluster, the annihilation rates are quite stable, irrespective of the accuracy in binding energies. For the e + Be states, annihilation rates are larger and more consistent with qualitative predictions than previously reported ones

  17. THE OBSERVED RELATION BETWEEN STELLAR MASS, DUST EXTINCTION, AND STAR FORMATION RATE IN LOCAL GALAXIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zahid, H. J.; Kewley, L. J.; Kudritzki, R. P.; Yates, R. M.

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we investigate the relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and star formation rate (SFR) using ∼150,000 star-forming galaxies from SDSS DR7. We show that the relation between dust extinction and SFR changes with stellar mass. For galaxies at the same stellar mass, dust extinction is anti-correlated with the SFR at stellar masses 10 M ☉ . There is a sharp transition in the relation at a stellar mass of 10 10 M ☉ . At larger stellar masses, dust extinction is positively correlated with the SFR for galaxies at the same stellar mass. The observed relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and SFR presented in this study helps to confirm similar trends observed in the relation between stellar mass, metallicity, and SFR. The relation reported in this study provides important new constraints on the physical processes governing the chemical evolution of galaxies. The correlation between SFR and dust extinction for galaxies with stellar masses >10 10 M ☉ is shown to extend to the population of quiescent galaxies suggesting that the physical processes responsible for the observed relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and SFR may be related to the processes leading to the shutdown of star formation in galaxies.

  18. THE OBSERVED RELATION BETWEEN STELLAR MASS, DUST EXTINCTION, AND STAR FORMATION RATE IN LOCAL GALAXIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zahid, H. J.; Kewley, L. J.; Kudritzki, R. P. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2680 Woodlawn Dr., Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Yates, R. M. [Max-Planck-Institute for Astrophysics, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 1, D-85741 Garching (Germany)

    2013-02-15

    In this study, we investigate the relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and star formation rate (SFR) using {approx}150,000 star-forming galaxies from SDSS DR7. We show that the relation between dust extinction and SFR changes with stellar mass. For galaxies at the same stellar mass, dust extinction is anti-correlated with the SFR at stellar masses <10{sup 10} M {sub Sun }. There is a sharp transition in the relation at a stellar mass of 10{sup 10} M {sub Sun }. At larger stellar masses, dust extinction is positively correlated with the SFR for galaxies at the same stellar mass. The observed relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and SFR presented in this study helps to confirm similar trends observed in the relation between stellar mass, metallicity, and SFR. The relation reported in this study provides important new constraints on the physical processes governing the chemical evolution of galaxies. The correlation between SFR and dust extinction for galaxies with stellar masses >10{sup 10} M {sub Sun} is shown to extend to the population of quiescent galaxies suggesting that the physical processes responsible for the observed relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and SFR may be related to the processes leading to the shutdown of star formation in galaxies.

  19. Prediction of PWSCC in nickel base alloys using crack growth rate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, C.D.

    1995-01-01

    The Ford/Andresen slip dissolution SCC model, originally developed for stainless steel components in BWR environments, has been applied to Alloy 600 and Alloy X-750 tested in deaerated pure water chemistry. A method is described whereby the crack growth rates measured in compact tension specimens can be used to estimate crack growth in a component. Good agreement was found between model prediction and measured SCC in X-750 threaded fasteners over a wide range of temperatures, stresses, and material condition. Most data support the basic assumption of this model that cracks initiate early in life. The evidence supporting a particular SCC mechanism is mixed. Electrochemical repassivation data and estimates of oxide fracture strain indicate that the slip dissolution model can account for the observed crack growth rates, provided primary rather than secondary creep rates are used. However, approximately 100 cross-sectional TEM foils of SCC cracks including crack tips reveal no evidence of enhanced plasticity or unique dislocation patterns at the crack tip or along the crack to support a classic slip dissolution mechanism. No voids, hydrides,, or microcracks are found in the vicinity of the crack tips creating doubt about classic hydrogen related mechanisms. The bulk oxide films exhibit a surface oxide which is often different than the oxide found within a crack. Although bulk chromium concentration affects the rate of SCC, analytical data indicates the mechanism does not result from chromium depletion at the grain boundaries. The overall findings support a corrosion/dissolution mechanism but not one necessarily related to slip at the crack tip. (author). 12 refs, 27 figs

  20. Modelling infant mortality rate in Central Java, Indonesia use generalized poisson regression method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prahutama, Alan; Sudarno

    2018-05-01

    The infant mortality rate is the number of deaths under one year of age occurring among the live births in a given geographical area during a given year, per 1,000 live births occurring among the population of the given geographical area during the same year. This problem needs to be addressed because it is an important element of a country’s economic development. High infant mortality rate will disrupt the stability of a country as it relates to the sustainability of the population in the country. One of regression model that can be used to analyze the relationship between dependent variable Y in the form of discrete data and independent variable X is Poisson regression model. Recently The regression modeling used for data with dependent variable is discrete, among others, poisson regression, negative binomial regression and generalized poisson regression. In this research, generalized poisson regression modeling gives better AIC value than poisson regression. The most significant variable is the Number of health facilities (X1), while the variable that gives the most influence to infant mortality rate is the average breastfeeding (X9).

  1. Development of Copper Corrosion Products and Relation between Surface Appearance and Corrosion Rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lan, Tran Thi Ngoc; Binh, Nguyen Thi Thanh; Tru, Nguyen Nhi; Yoshino, Tsujino; Yasuki, Maeda

    2008-01-01

    Copper was exposed unsheltered and sheltered in four humid tropical sites, representing urban, urban-industrial, urban-marine and rural environments. The corrosion rates and the sequence of corrosion product formation are presented and discussed in relation with climatic and atmospheric pollution parameters. Chemical compositions of corrosion products were found to depend on environments and duration of exposure. In all environments, cuprite was the predominating corrosion product that formed first and continuously increased during the exposure. Among the sulphur-containing corrosion products, posnjakite and brochantite were more frequently found and the first formed earlier. Nantokite was the most common chlorine-containing products for most cases, except the high-chloride environment, where atacamite was detected instead. The corrosion rate of copper was well indicated by the colour of patina. The red-purple colour corresponded to the high corrosion rate and the greenish grey colour corresponded to the low corrosion rate. Corrosion rate of sheltered copper in urban-marine environment increased with the exposure time

  2. Modeling Populations of Thermostatic Loads with Switching Rate Actuation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Totu, Luminita Cristiana; Wisniewski, Rafal; Leth, John-Josef

    2015-01-01

    We model thermostatic devices using a stochastic hybrid description, and introduce an external actuation mechanism that creates random switch events in the discrete dynamics. We then conjecture the form of the Fokker-Planck equation and successfully verify it numerically using Monte Carlo...... simulations. The actuation mechanism and subsequent modeling result are relevant for power system operation....

  3. Estimation of Sand Production Rate Using Geomechanical and Hydromechanical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Son Tung Pham

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to develop a numerical model that can be used in sand control during production phase of an oil and gas well. The model is able to predict not only the onset of sand production using critical bottom hole pressure inferred from geomechanical modelling, but also the mass of sand produced versus time as well as the change of porosity versus space and time using hydromechanical modelling. A detailed workflow of the modelling was presented with each step of calculations. The empirical parameters were calibrated using laboratory data. Then the modelling was applied in a case study of an oilfield in Cuu Long basin. In addition, a sensitivity study of the effect of drawdown pressure was presented in this paper. Moreover, a comparison between results of different hydromechanical models was also addressed. The outcome of this paper demonstrated the possibility of modelling the sand production mass in real cases, opening a new approach in sand control in petroleum industry.

  4. Glycolysis Is Dynamic and Relates Closely to Respiration Rate in Stored Sugarbeet Roots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clarice A. Megguer

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Although respiration is the principal cause of the loss of sucrose in postharvest sugarbeet (Beta vulgaris L., the internal mechanisms that control root respiration rate are unknown. Available evidence, however, indicates that respiration rate is likely to be controlled by the availability of respiratory substrates, and glycolysis has a central role in generating these substrates. To determine glycolytic changes that occur in sugarbeet roots after harvest and to elucidate relationships between glycolysis and respiration, sugarbeet roots were stored for up to 60 days, during which activities of glycolytic enzymes and concentrations of glycolytic substrates, intermediates, cofactors, and products were determined. Respiration rate was also determined, and relationships between respiration rate and glycolytic enzymes and metabolites were evaluated. Glycolysis was highly variable during storage, with 10 of 14 glycolytic activities and 14 of 17 glycolytic metabolites significantly altered during storage. Changes in glycolytic enzyme activities and metabolites occurred throughout the 60 day storage period, but were greatest in the first 4 days after harvest. Positive relationships between changes in glycolytic enzyme activities and root respiration rate were abundant, with 10 of 14 enzyme activities elevated when root respiration was elevated and 9 glycolytic activities static during periods of unchanging respiration rate. Major roles for pyruvate kinase and phosphofructokinase in the regulation of postharvest sugarbeet root glycolysis were indicated based on changes in enzymatic activities and concentrations of their substrates and products. Additionally, a strong positive relationship between respiration rate and pyruvate kinase activity was found indicating that downstream TCA cycle enzymes were unlikely to regulate or restrict root respiration in a major way. Overall, these results establish that glycolysis is not static during sugarbeet root

  5. A Latent-Variable Causal Model of Faculty Reputational Ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Suzanne; Wolfle, Lee M.

    A reanalysis was conducted of Saunier's research (1985) on sources of variation in the National Research Council (NRC) reputational ratings of university faculty. Saunier conducted a stepwise regression analysis using 12 predictor variables. Due to problems with multicollinearity and because of the atheoretical nature of stepwise regression,…

  6. A model for turbulent dissipation rate in a constant pressure ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    J Dey

    the logarithmic region. However, measurement of the. Taylor microscale remains a difficult task, as it involves correlation function [1]. Consequently, an appreciation of the Taylor microscale, dissipation rate, etc., is lacking in practice due to complexity involved in estimating these quantities. Segalini et al [2] have proposed a ...

  7. Cross sectional efficient estimation of stochastic volatility short rate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danilov, Dmitri; Mandal, Pranab K.

    2001-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimation of term structure of interest rates. Filtering theory approach is very natural here with the underlying setup being non-linear and non-Gaussian. Earlier works make use of Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). However, as indicated by de Jong (2000), the EKF in this

  8. Cross sectional efficient estimation of stochastic volatility short rate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danilov, Dmitri; Mandal, Pranab K.

    2002-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimation of term structure of interest rates. Filtering theory approach is very natural here with the underlying setup being non-linear and non-Gaussian. Earlier works make use of Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). However, the EKF in this situation leads to inconsistent

  9. Subway-Related Trauma: An Urban Public Health Issue with a High Case-Fatality Rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodier, Simon G; DiMaggio, Charles J; Wall, Stephen; Sim, Vasiliy; Frangos, Spiros G; Ayoung-Chee, Patricia; Bukur, Marko; Tandon, Manish; Todd, S Rob; Marshall, Gary T

    2018-05-09

    Between 1990 and 2003, there were 668 subway-related fatalities in New York City. However, subway-related trauma remains an understudied area of injury-related morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to characterize the injuries and events leading up to the injuries of all patients admitted after subway-related trauma. We conducted a retrospective case series of subway-related trauma at a Level I trauma center from 2001 to 2016. Descriptive epidemiology of patient demographics, incident details, injuries, and outcomes were analyzed. Over 15 years, 254 patients were admitted for subway-related trauma. The mean (standard error of the mean) age was 41 (1.0) years, 80% were male (95% confidence interval [CI] 74-84%) and median Injury Severity Score was 14 (interquartile range [IQR] 5-24). The overall case-fatality rate was 10% (95% CI 7-15%). The most common injuries were long-bone fractures, intracranial hemorrhage, and traumatic amputations. Median length of stay was 6 days (IQR 1-18 days). Thirty-seven percent of patients required surgical intervention. At the time of injury, 55% of patients (95% CI 49-61%) had a positive urine drug or alcohol screen, 16% (95% CI 12-21%) were attempting suicide, and 39% (95% CI 33-45%) had a history of psychiatric illness. Subway-related trauma is associated with a high case-fatality rate. Alcohol or drug intoxication and psychiatric illness can increase the risk of this type of injury. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Simplification of an MCNP model designed for dose rate estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laptev, Alexander; Perry, Robert

    2017-09-01

    A study was made to investigate the methods of building a simplified MCNP model for radiological dose estimation. The research was done using an example of a complicated glovebox with extra shielding. The paper presents several different calculations for neutron and photon dose evaluations where glovebox elements were consecutively excluded from the MCNP model. The analysis indicated that to obtain a fast and reasonable estimation of dose, the model should be realistic in details that are close to the tally. Other details may be omitted.

  11. Simplification of an MCNP model designed for dose rate estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laptev Alexander

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A study was made to investigate the methods of building a simplified MCNP model for radiological dose estimation. The research was done using an example of a complicated glovebox with extra shielding. The paper presents several different calculations for neutron and photon dose evaluations where glovebox elements were consecutively excluded from the MCNP model. The analysis indicated that to obtain a fast and reasonable estimation of dose, the model should be realistic in details that are close to the tally. Other details may be omitted.

  12. Mass gathering medicine: a predictive model for patient presentation and transport rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbon, P; Bridgewater, F H; Smith, C

    2001-01-01

    This paper reports on research into the influence of environmental factors (including crowd size, temperature, humidity, and venue type) on the number of patients and the patient problems presenting to first-aid services at large, public events in Australia. Regression models were developed to predict rates of patient presentation and of transportation-to-a-hospital for future mass gatherings. To develop a data set and predictive model that can be applied across venues and types of mass gathering events that is not venue or event specific. Data collected will allow informed event planning for future mass gatherings for which health care services are required. Mass gatherings were defined as public events attended by in excess of 25,000 people. Over a period of 12 months, 201 mass gatherings attended by a combined audience in excess of 12 million people were surveyed throughout Australia. The survey was undertaken by St. John Ambulance Australia personnel. The researchers collected data on the incidence and type of patients presenting for treatment and on the environmental factors that may influence these presentations. A standard reporting format and definition of event geography was employed to overcome the event-specific nature of many previous surveys. There are 11,956 patients in the sample. The patient presentation rate across all event types was 0.992/1,000 attendees, and the transportation-to-hospital rate was 0.027/1,000 persons in attendance. The rates of patient presentations declined slightly as crowd sizes increased. The weather (particularly the relative humidity) was related positively to an increase in the rates of presentations. Other factors that influenced the number and type of patients presenting were the mobility of the crowd, the availability of alcohol, the event being enclosed by a boundary, and the number of patient-care personnel on duty. Three regression models were developed to predict presentation rates at future events. Several

  13. Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

    OpenAIRE

    Manuel Moreno

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk management based on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interest rates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that default free discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between the long-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several new measures of ``generalized duration" are p...

  14. Entrainment to periodic initiation and transition rates in a computational model for gene translation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Margaliot

    Full Text Available Periodic oscillations play an important role in many biomedical systems. Proper functioning of biological systems that respond to periodic signals requires the ability to synchronize with the periodic excitation. For example, the sleep/wake cycle is a manifestation of an internal timing system that synchronizes to the solar day. In the terminology of systems theory, the biological system must entrain or phase-lock to the periodic excitation. Entrainment is also important in synthetic biology. For example, connecting several artificial biological systems that entrain to a common clock may lead to a well-functioning modular system. The cell-cycle is a periodic program that regulates DNA synthesis and cell division. Recent biological studies suggest that cell-cycle related genes entrain to this periodic program at the gene translation level, leading to periodically-varying protein levels of these genes. The ribosome flow model (RFM is a deterministic model obtained via a mean-field approximation of a stochastic model from statistical physics that has been used to model numerous processes including ribosome flow along the mRNA. Here we analyze the RFM under the assumption that the initiation and/or transition rates vary periodically with a common period T. We show that the ribosome distribution profile in the RFM entrains to this periodic excitation. In particular, the protein synthesis pattern converges to a unique periodic solution with period T. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first proof of entrainment in a mathematical model for translation that encapsulates aspects such as initiation and termination rates, ribosomal movement and interactions, and non-homogeneous elongation speeds along the mRNA. Our results support the conjecture that periodic oscillations in tRNA levels and other factors related to the translation process can induce periodic oscillations in protein levels, and may suggest a new approach for re-engineering genetic

  15. Modelling and parameterizing the influence of tides on ice-shelf melt rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jourdain, N.; Molines, J. M.; Le Sommer, J.; Mathiot, P.; de Lavergne, C.; Gurvan, M.; Durand, G.

    2017-12-01

    Significant Antarctic ice sheet thinning is observed in several sectors of Antarctica, in particular in the Amundsen Sea sector, where warm circumpolar deep waters affect basal melting. The later has the potential to trigger marine ice sheet instabilities, with an associated potential for rapid sea level rise. It is therefore crucial to simulate and understand the processes associated with ice-shelf melt rates. In particular, the absence of tides representation in ocean models remains a caveat of numerous ocean hindcasts and climate projections. In the Amundsen Sea, tides are relatively weak and the melt-induced circulation is stronger than the tidal circulation. Using a regional 1/12° ocean model of the Amundsen Sea, we nonetheless find that tides can increase melt rates by up to 36% in some ice-shelf cavities. Among the processes that can possibly affect melt rates, the most important is an increased exchange at the ice/ocean interface resulting from the presence of strong tidal currents along the ice drafts. Approximately a third of this effect is compensated by a decrease in thermal forcing along the ice draft, which is related to an enhanced vertical mixing in the ocean interior in presence of tides. Parameterizing the effect of tides is an alternative to the representation of explicit tides in an ocean model, and has the advantage not to require any filtering of ocean model outputs. We therefore explore different ways to parameterize the effects of tides on ice shelf melt. First, we compare several methods to impose tidal velocities along the ice draft. We show that getting a realistic spatial distribution of tidal velocities in important, and can be deduced from the barotropic velocities of a tide model. Then, we explore several aspects of parameterized tidal mixing to reproduce the tide-induced decrease in thermal forcing along the ice drafts.

  16. Factors influencing the detection rate of drug-related problems in community pharmacy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Westerlund, T; Almarsdóttir, Anna Birna; Melander, A

    1999-01-01

    This study analyzes relationships between the number of drug-related problems detected in community pharmacy practice and the educational level and other characteristics of pharmacy personnel and their work sites. Random samples of pharmacists, prescriptionists and pharmacy technicians were drawn...... by each professional. The regression analysis showed the educational level of the professional to have a statistically significant effect on the detection rate, with pharmacists finding on average 2.5 more drug-related problems per 100 patients than prescriptionists and about 3.6 more than technicians....... The results of this study indicate the importance of education and training of pharmacy personnel in detection of drug-related problems. This findings speaks in favor of increasing the pharmacist to other personnel ratio, provided the higher costs will be offset by societal benefits....

  17. Modelling Odor Decoding in the Antennal Lobe by Combining Sequential Firing Rate Models with Bayesian Inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Cuevas Rivera

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The olfactory information that is received by the insect brain is encoded in the form of spatiotemporal patterns in the projection neurons of the antennal lobe. These dense and overlapping patterns are transformed into a sparse code in Kenyon cells in the mushroom body. Although it is clear that this sparse code is the basis for rapid categorization of odors, it is yet unclear how the sparse code in Kenyon cells is computed and what information it represents. Here we show that this computation can be modeled by sequential firing rate patterns using Lotka-Volterra equations and Bayesian online inference. This new model can be understood as an 'intelligent coincidence detector', which robustly and dynamically encodes the presence of specific odor features. We found that the model is able to qualitatively reproduce experimentally observed activity in both the projection neurons and the Kenyon cells. In particular, the model explains mechanistically how sparse activity in the Kenyon cells arises from the dense code in the projection neurons. The odor classification performance of the model proved to be robust against noise and time jitter in the observed input sequences. As in recent experimental results, we found that recognition of an odor happened very early during stimulus presentation in the model. Critically, by using the model, we found surprising but simple computational explanations for several experimental phenomena.

  18. Numerical modelling of landscape and sediment flux response to precipitation rate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armitage, John J.; Whittaker, Alexander C.; Zakari, Mustapha; Campforts, Benjamin

    2018-02-01

    both models respond more quickly to a wetting event than a drying event, and we argue that this asymmetry in response time has significant implications for depositional stratigraphies. Finally, we evaluate the extent to which these constraints on response times and sediment fluxes from simple models help us understand the geological record of landscape response to rapid environmental changes in the past, such as the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM). In the Spanish Pyrenees, for instance, a relatively rapid (10 to 50 kyr) duration of the deposition of gravel is observed for a climatic shift that is thought to be towards increased precipitation rates. We suggest that the rapid response observed is more easily explained through a diffusive transport model because (1) the model has a faster response time, which is consistent with the documented stratigraphic data, (2) there is a high-amplitude spike in sediment flux, and (3) the assumption of instantaneous transport is difficult to justify for the transport of large grain sizes as an alluvial bedload. Consequently, while these end-member models do not reproduce all the complexity of processes seen in real landscapes, we argue that variations in long-term erosional dynamics within source catchments can fundamentally control when, how, and where sedimentary archives can record past environmental change.

  19. Numerical modelling of landscape and sediment flux response to precipitation rate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Armitage

    2018-02-01

    important finding is that both models respond more quickly to a wetting event than a drying event, and we argue that this asymmetry in response time has significant implications for depositional stratigraphies. Finally, we evaluate the extent to which these constraints on response times and sediment fluxes from simple models help us understand the geological record of landscape response to rapid environmental changes in the past, such as the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM. In the Spanish Pyrenees, for instance, a relatively rapid (10 to 50 kyr duration of the deposition of gravel is observed for a climatic shift that is thought to be towards increased precipitation rates. We suggest that the rapid response observed is more easily explained through a diffusive transport model because (1 the model has a faster response time, which is consistent with the documented stratigraphic data, (2 there is a high-amplitude spike in sediment flux, and (3 the assumption of instantaneous transport is difficult to justify for the transport of large grain sizes as an alluvial bedload. Consequently, while these end-member models do not reproduce all the complexity of processes seen in real landscapes, we argue that variations in long-term erosional dynamics within source catchments can fundamentally control when, how, and where sedimentary archives can record past environmental change.

  20. EXPLORING SYSTEMATIC EFFECTS IN THE RELATION BETWEEN STELLAR MASS, GAS PHASE METALLICITY, AND STAR FORMATION RATE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Telford, O. Grace; Dalcanton, Julianne J.; Skillman, Evan D.; Conroy, Charlie

    2016-01-01

    There is evidence that the well-established mass–metallicity relation in galaxies is correlated with a third parameter: star formation rate (SFR). The strength of this correlation may be used to disentangle the relative importance of different physical processes (e.g., infall of pristine gas, metal-enriched outflows) in governing chemical evolution. However, all three parameters are susceptible to biases that might affect the observed strength of the relation between them. We analyze possible sources of systematic error, including sample bias, application of signal-to-noise ratio cuts on emission lines, choice of metallicity calibration, uncertainty in stellar mass determination, aperture effects, and dust. We present the first analysis of the relation between stellar mass, gas phase metallicity, and SFR using strong line abundance diagnostics from Dopita et al. for ∼130,000 star-forming galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and provide a detailed comparison of these diagnostics in an appendix. Using these new abundance diagnostics yields a 30%–55% weaker anti-correlation between metallicity and SFR at fixed stellar mass than that reported by Mannucci et al. We find that, for all abundance diagnostics, the anti-correlation with SFR is stronger for the relatively few galaxies whose current SFRs are elevated above their past average SFRs. This is also true for the new abundance diagnostic of Dopita et al., which gives anti-correlation between Z and SFR only in the high specific star formation rate (sSFR) regime, in contrast to the recent results of Kashino et al. The poorly constrained strength of the relation between stellar mass, metallicity, and SFR must be carefully accounted for in theoretical studies of chemical evolution.

  1. Structure analysis of tax revenue and inflation rate in Banda Aceh using vector error correction model with multiple alpha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofyan, Hizir; Maulia, Eva; Miftahuddin

    2017-11-01

    A country has several important parameters to achieve economic prosperity, such as tax revenue and inflation rate. One of the largest revenues of the State Budget in Indonesia comes from the tax sector. Meanwhile, the rate of inflation occurring in a country can be used as an indicator, to measure the good and bad economic problems faced by the country. Given the importance of tax revenue and inflation rate control in achieving economic prosperity, it is necessary to analyze the structure of tax revenue relations and inflation rate. This study aims to produce the best VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) with optimal lag using various alpha and perform structural analysis using the Impulse Response Function (IRF) of the VECM models to examine the relationship of tax revenue, and inflation in Banda Aceh. The results showed that the best model for the data of tax revenue and inflation rate in Banda Aceh City using alpha 0.01 is VECM with optimal lag 2, while the best model for data of tax revenue and inflation rate in Banda Aceh City using alpha 0.05 and 0,1 VECM with optimal lag 3. However, the VECM model with alpha 0.01 yielded four significant models of income tax model, inflation rate of Banda Aceh, inflation rate of health and inflation rate of education in Banda Aceh. While the VECM model with alpha 0.05 and 0.1 yielded one significant model that is income tax model. Based on the VECM models, then there are two structural analysis IRF which is formed to look at the relationship of tax revenue, and inflation in Banda Aceh, the IRF with VECM (2) and IRF with VECM (3).

  2. Formation of algae growth constitutive relations for improved algae modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gharagozloo, Patricia E.; Drewry, Jessica Louise.

    2013-01-01

    This SAND report summarizes research conducted as a part of a two year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project to improve our abilities to model algal cultivation. Algae-based biofuels have generated much excitement due to their potentially large oil yield from relatively small land use and without interfering with the food or water supply. Algae mitigate atmospheric CO2 through metabolism. Efficient production of algal biofuels could reduce dependence on foreign oil by providing a domestic renewable energy source. Important factors controlling algal productivity include temperature, nutrient concentrations, salinity, pH, and the light-to-biomass conversion rate. Computational models allow for inexpensive predictions of algae growth kinetics in these non-ideal conditions for various bioreactor sizes and geometries without the need for multiple expensive measurement setups. However, these models need to be calibrated for each algal strain. In this work, we conduct a parametric study of key marine algae strains and apply the findings to a computational model.

  3. Modeling Long Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laila Alejandra Puntel

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn (Zea mays L. can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM to simulate corn and soybean (Glycine max L. yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha-1 applied to corn. Our objectives were to: a quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; b compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and c utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simultaneously simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration, which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration. For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-yr mean differences in EONR’s were within the historical N rate error range (40 to 50 kg N ha-1. However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching with precipitation. We concluded that long term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add

  4. Modeling Long-Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puntel, Laila A; Sawyer, John E; Barker, Daniel W; Dietzel, Ranae; Poffenbarger, Hanna; Castellano, Michael J; Moore, Kenneth J; Thorburn, Peter; Archontoulis, Sotirios V

    2016-01-01

    Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn ( Zea mays L. ) can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate corn and soybean ( Glycine max L. ) yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR) using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn) and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha -1 ) applied to corn. Our objectives were to: (a) quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; (b) compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and (c) utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration), which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration). For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-year mean differences in EONR's were within the historical N rate error range (40-50 kg N ha -1 ). However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching) with precipitation. We concluded that long-term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add value toward

  5. Differences in proleptic and epicormic shoot structures in relation to water deficit and growth rate in almond trees (Prunus dulcis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negrón, Claudia; Contador, Loreto; Lampinen, Bruce D; Metcalf, Samuel G; Guédon, Yann; Costes, Evelyne; DeJong, Theodore M

    2014-02-01

    Shoot characteristics differ depending on the meristem tissue that they originate from and environmental conditions during their development. This study focused on the effects of plant water status on axillary meristem fate and flowering patterns along proleptic and epicormic shoots, as well as on shoot growth rates on 'Nonpareil' almond trees (Prunus dulcis). The aims were (1) to characterize the structural differences between proleptic and epicormic shoots, (2) to determine whether water deficits modify shoot structures differently depending on shoot type, and (3) to determine whether shoot structures are related to shoot growth rates. A hidden semi-Markov model of the axillary meristem fate and number of flower buds per node was built for two shoot types growing on trees exposed to three plant water status treatments. The models segmented observed shoots into successive homogeneous zones, which were compared between treatments. Shoot growth rates were calculated from shoot extension measurements made during the growing season. Proleptic shoots had seven successive homogeneous zones while epicormic shoots had five zones. Shoot structures were associated with changes in growth rate over the season. Water deficit (1) affected the occurrence and lengths of the first zones of proleptic shoots, but only the occurrence of the third zone was reduced in epicormic shoots; (2) had a minor effect on zone flowering patterns and did not modify shoot or zone composition of axillary meristem fates; and (3) reduced growth rates, although patterns over the season were similar among treatments. Two meristem types, with different latency durations, produced shoots with different growth rates and distinct structures. Differences between shoot type structure responses to water deficit appeared to reflect their ontogenetic characteristics and/or resource availability for their development. Tree water deficit appeared to stimulate a more rapid progression through ontogenetic states.

  6. Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

    1990-01-01

    When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate

  7. General extrapolation model for an important chemical dose-rate effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillen, K.T.; Clough, R.L.

    1984-12-01

    In order to extrapolate material accelerated aging data, methodologies must be developed based on sufficient understanding of the processes leading to material degradation. One of the most important mechanisms leading to chemical dose-rate effects in polymers involves the breakdown of intermediate hydroperoxide species. A general model for this mechanism is derived based on the underlying chemical steps. The results lead to a general formalism for understanding dose rate and sequential aging effects when hydroperoxide breakdown is important. We apply the model to combined radiation/temperature aging data for a PVC material and show that this data is consistent with the model and that model extrapolations are in excellent agreement with 12-year real-time aging results from an actual nuclear plant. This model and other techniques discussed in this report can aid in the selection of appropriate accelerated aging methods and can also be used to compare and select materials for use in safety-related components. This will result in increased assurance that equipment qualification procedures are adequate

  8. Multi-Agent Market Modeling of Foreign Exchange Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Georg; Neuneier, Ralph; Grothmann, Ralph

    A market mechanism is basically driven by a superposition of decisions of many agents optimizing their profit. The oeconomic price dynamic is a consequence of the cumulated excess demand/supply created on this micro level. The behavior analysis of a small number of agents is well understood through the game theory. In case of a large number of agents one may use the limiting case that an individual agent does not have an influence on the market, which allows the aggregation of agents by statistic methods. In contrast to this restriction, we can omit the assumption of an atomic market structure, if we model the market through a multi-agent approach. The contribution of the mathematical theory of neural networks to the market price formation is mostly seen on the econometric side: neural networks allow the fitting of high dimensional nonlinear dynamic models. Furthermore, in our opinion, there is a close relationship between economics and the modeling ability of neural networks because a neuron can be interpreted as a simple model of decision making. With this in mind, a neural network models the interaction of many decisions and, hence, can be interpreted as the price formation mechanism of a market.

  9. A Constitutive Model for Superelastic Shape Memory Alloys Considering the Influence of Strain Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Qian

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Shape memory alloys (SMAs are a relatively new class of functional materials, exhibiting special thermomechanical behaviors, such as shape memory effect and superelasticity, which enable their applications in seismic engineering as energy dissipation devices. This paper investigates the properties of superelastic NiTi shape memory alloys, emphasizing the influence of strain rate on superelastic behavior under various strain amplitudes by cyclic tensile tests. A novel constitutive equation based on Graesser and Cozzarelli’s model is proposed to describe the strain-rate-dependent hysteretic behavior of superelastic SMAs at different strain levels. A stress variable including the influence of strain rate is introduced into Graesser and Cozzarelli’s model. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed constitutive equation, experiments on superelastic NiTi wires with different strain rates and strain levels are conducted. Numerical simulation results based on the proposed constitutive equation and experimental results are in good agreement. The findings in this paper will assist the future design of superelastic SMA-based energy dissipation devices for seismic protection of structures.

  10. High rate of adaptation of mammalian proteins that interact with Plasmodium and related parasites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telis, Natalie; Petrov, Dmitri A.

    2017-01-01

    Plasmodium parasites, along with their Piroplasm relatives, have caused malaria-like illnesses in terrestrial mammals for millions of years. Several Plasmodium-protective alleles have recently evolved in human populations, but little is known about host adaptation to blood parasites over deeper evolutionary timescales. In this work, we analyze mammalian adaptation in ~500 Plasmodium- or Piroplasm- interacting proteins (PPIPs) manually curated from the scientific literature. We show that (i) PPIPs are enriched for both immune functions and pleiotropy with other pathogens, and (ii) the rate of adaptation across mammals is significantly elevated in PPIPs, compared to carefully matched control proteins. PPIPs with high pathogen pleiotropy show the strongest signatures of adaptation, but this pattern is fully explained by their immune enrichment. Several pieces of evidence suggest that blood parasites specifically have imposed selection on PPIPs. First, even non-immune PPIPs that lack interactions with other pathogens have adapted at twice the rate of matched controls. Second, PPIP adaptation is linked to high expression in the liver, a critical organ in the parasite life cycle. Finally, our detailed investigation of alpha-spectrin, a major red blood cell membrane protein, shows that domains with particularly high rates of adaptation are those known to interact specifically with P. falciparum. Overall, we show that host proteins that interact with Plasmodium and Piroplasm parasites have experienced elevated rates of adaptation across mammals, and provide evidence that some of this adaptation has likely been driven by blood parasites. PMID:28957326

  11. Computational Modelling and Optimal Control of Ebola Virus Disease with non-Linear Incidence Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaidza, I.; Makinde, O. D.; Okosun, O. K.

    2017-03-01

    The 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa has exposed the need to connect modellers and those with relevant data as pivotal to better understanding of how the disease spreads and quantifying the effects of possible interventions. In this paper, we model and analyse the Ebola virus disease with non-linear incidence rate. The epidemic model created is used to describe how the Ebola virus could potentially evolve in a population. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number R 0 to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyse the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time control interventions (education, vaccination, quarantine and safe handling) and provide the cost effective combination of the interventions.

  12. Efficient Matrix Models for Relational Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-01

    base learners and h1:r is the ensemble learner. For example, consider the case where h1, . . . , hr are linear discriminants. The weighted vote of...a multilinear form naturally leads one to consider tensor factorization: e.g., UAV T is a special case of Tucker decomposition [129] on a 2D- tensor , a...matrix. Our five modeling choices can also be used to differentiate tensor factorizations, but the choices may be subtler for tensors than for

  13. Reduced Order Modeling in General Relativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiglio, Manuel

    2014-03-01

    Reduced Order Modeling is an emerging yet fast developing filed in gravitational wave physics. The main goals are to enable fast modeling and parameter estimation of any detected signal, along with rapid matched filtering detecting. I will focus on the first two. Some accomplishments include being able to replace, with essentially no lost of physical accuracy, the original models with surrogate ones (which are not effective ones, that is, they do not simplify the physics but go on a very different track, exploiting the particulars of the waveform family under consideration and state of the art dimensional reduction techniques) which are very fast to evaluate. For example, for EOB models they are at least around 3 orders of magnitude faster than solving the original equations, with physically equivalent results. For numerical simulations the speedup is at least 11 orders of magnitude. For parameter estimation our current numbers are about bringing ~100 days for a single SPA inspiral binary neutron star Bayesian parameter estimation analysis to under a day. More recently, it has been shown that the full precessing problem for, say, 200 cycles, can be represented, through some new ideas, by a remarkably compact set of carefully chosen reduced basis waveforms (~10-100, depending on the accuracy requirements). I will highlight what I personally believe are the challenges to face next in this subarea of GW physics and where efforts should be directed. This talk will summarize work in collaboration with: Harbir Antil (GMU), Jonathan Blackman (Caltech), Priscila Canizares (IoA, Cambridge, UK), Sarah Caudill (UWM), Jonathan Gair (IoA. Cambridge. UK), Scott Field (UMD), Chad R. Galley (Caltech), Frank Herrmann (Germany), Han Hestahven (EPFL, Switzerland), Jason Kaye (Brown, Stanford & Courant). Evan Ochsner (UWM), Ricardo Nochetto (UMD), Vivien Raymond (LIGO, Caltech), Rory Smith (LIGO, Caltech) Bela Ssilagyi (Caltech) and MT (UMD & Caltech).

  14. Dating of Pregnancy in First versus Second Trimester in Relation to Post-Term Birth Rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thagaard, Ida Näslund; Krebs, Lone; Lausten-Thomsen, Ulrik

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To evaluate in a national standardised setting whether the performance of ultrasound dating during the first rather than the second trimester of pregnancy had consequences regarding the definition of pre- and post-term birth rates. METHODS: A cohort study of 8,551 singleton pregnancies...... with spontaneous delivery was performed from 2006 to 2012 at Copenhagen University Hospital, Holbæk, Denmark. We determined the duration of pregnancy calculated by last menstrual period, crown rump length (CRL), biparietal diameter (1st trimester), BPD (2nd trimester), and head circumference and compared mean...... and median durations, the mean differences, the systematic discrepancies, and the percentages of pre-term and post-term pregnancies in relation to each method. The primary outcomes were post-term and pre-term birth rates defined by different dating methods. RESULTS: The change from use of second to first...

  15. Temperature and rainfall are related to fertility rate after spring artificial insemination in small ruminants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abecia, J. A.; Arrébola, F.; Macías, A.; Laviña, A.; González-Casquet, O.; Benítez, F.; Palacios, C.

    2016-10-01

    A total number of 1092 artificial inseminations (AIs) performed from March to May were documented over four consecutive years on 10 Payoya goat farms (36° N) and 19,392 AIs on 102 Rasa Aragonesa sheep farms (41° N) over 10 years. Mean, maximum, and minimum ambient temperatures, mean relative humidity, mean solar radiation, and total rainfall on each insemination day were recorded. Overall, fertility rates were 58 % in goats and 45 % in sheep. The fertility rates of the highest and lowest deciles of each of the meteorological variables indicated that temperature and rainfall had a significant effect on fertility in goats. Specifically, inseminations that were performed when mean (68 %), maximum (68 %), and minimum (66 %) temperatures were in the highest decile, and rainfall was in the lowest decile (59 %), had a significantly ( P goats and sheep.

  16. An experimental model for measuring gastrointestinal bleeding rate using Tc-99m DTPA in rabbits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owunwanne, A.; Abdel-Dayem, H.M.; Sadek, S.; Yakoub, T.; Mahajan, K.K.; Ericsson, S.B.

    1987-01-01

    An animal experimental model to measure the rate of gastrointestinal bleeding rate in a rabbit using Tc-99m DTPA is described. It was possible to detect a bleeding rate of 0.1 ml/min. However, the model could not be used to calculate the minimum amount of radioactivity needed to detect the bleeding site. (orig.) [de

  17. Measuring the Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Stock Market Returns Volatility: GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkadir BESSEBA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the dynamic links between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market return volatility. For this purpose, we have employed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH model. Stock market returns sensitivities are found to be stronger for exchange rates, implying that exchange rate change plays an important role in determining the dynamics of the stock market returns.

  18. On cross-currency models with stochastic volatility and correlated interest rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzelak, L.A.; Oosterlee, C.W.

    2010-01-01

    We construct multi-currency models with stochastic volatility and correlated stochastic interest rates with a full matrix of correlations. We first deal with a foreign exchange (FX) model of Heston-type, in which the domestic and foreign interest rates are generated by the short-rate process of

  19. Bayesian nonparametric estimation of hazard rate in monotone Aalen model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Timková, Jana

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 6 (2014), s. 849-868 ISSN 0023-5954 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Aalen model * Bayesian estimation * MCMC Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.541, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/SI/timkova-0438210.pdf

  20. Development of a pheromone elution rate physical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. Teske; H.W. Thistle; B.L. Strom; H. Zhu

    2015-01-01

    A first principle modeling approach has been applied to available data describing the elution of semiochemicals from pheromone dispensers. These data included field data for 27 products developed by several manufacturers, including homemade devices, as well as environmental chamber data collected on three semiochemical products. The goal of this effort was to...

  1. Relative Motion Modeling and Autonomous Navigation Accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-15

    74-79. [39] T. Carter and M. Humi, “Clohessy-Wiltshire Equations Modified to Include Quadratic Drag,” Journal of Guidance, Control and Dynamics...the effect of the absolute and differential effects of the equatorial bulge term, J2, in the linearized equations for the relative motion of...perturbation equations up to third-order used for separating the secular and periodic effects can be written as where , , , and are the Kamiltonians of

  2. Heart rate during conflicts predicts post-conflict stress-related behavior in greylag geese.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia A F Wascher

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Social stressors are known to be among the most potent stressors in group-living animals. This is not only manifested in individual physiology (heart rate, glucocorticoids, but also in how individuals behave directly after a conflict. Certain 'stress-related behaviors' such as autopreening, body shaking, scratching and vigilance have been suggested to indicate an individual's emotional state. Such behaviors may also alleviate stress, but the behavioral context and physiological basis of those behaviors is still poorly understood. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We recorded beat-to-beat heart rates (HR of 22 greylag geese in response to agonistic encounters using fully implanted sensor-transmitter packages. Additionally, for 143 major events we analyzed the behavior shown by our focal animals in the first two minutes after an interaction. Our results show that the HR during encounters and characteristics of the interaction predicted the frequency and duration of behaviors shown after a conflict. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: To our knowledge this is the first study to quantify the physiological and behavioral responses to single agonistic encounters and to link this to post conflict behavior. Our results demonstrate that 'stress-related behaviors' are flexibly modulated by the characteristics of the preceding aggressive interaction and reflect the individual's emotional strain, which is linked to autonomic arousal. We found no support for the stress-alleviating hypothesis, but we propose that stress-related behaviors may play a role in communication with other group members, particularly with pair-partners.

  3. Hybridization rates between lettuce (Lactuca sativa) and its wild relative (L. serriola) under field conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Andrea, Luigi; Felber, François; Guadagnuolo, Roberto

    2008-01-01

    Hybridization and introgression between crops and wild relatives may have important evolutionary and ecological consequences such as gene swamping or increased invasiveness. In the present study, we investigated hybridization under field conditions between crop lettuce (Lactuca sativa) and its wild relative prickly lettuce (L. serriola), two cross-compatible, predominantly autogamous and insect pollinated species. In 2003 and 2004, we estimated the rates of hybridization between L. sativa and L. serriola in close-to-reality field experiments carried out in two locations of Northern Switzerland. Seeds set by the experimental wild plants were collected and sown (44 352 in 2003 and 252 345 in 2004). Progeny was screened morphologically for detecting natural hybrids. Prior to the experiment, specific RAPD markers were used to confirm that morphological characters were reliable for hybrid identification. Hybridization occurred up to the maximal distance tested (40 m), and hybridization rates varied between 0 to 26%, decreasing with distance. More than 80% of the wild plants produced at least one hybrid (incidence of hybridization, IH) at 0 m and 1 m. It equaled 4 to 5% at 40 m. In sympatric crop-wild populations, cross-pollination between cultivated lettuce and its wild relative has to be seen as the rule rather than the exception for short distances.

  4. Interspecific correlates of plasticity in relative growth rate following a decrease in nitrogen availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Useche, Antonio; Shipley, Bill

    2010-02-01

    Nitrogen availability varies greatly over short time scales. This requires that a well-adapted plant modify its phenotype by an appropriate amount and at a certain speed in order to maximize growth and fitness. To determine how plastic ontogenetic changes in each trait interact and whether or not these changes are likely to maximize growth, ontogenetic changes in relative growth rate (RGR), net assimilation rate (NAR), specific leaf area (SLA) and root weight ratio (RWR), before and after a decrease in nitrogen supply, were studied in 14 herbaceous species. Forty-four plants of each species were grown in hydroponic culture under controlled conditions in a control treatment where the supply of nitrogen remained constant at 1 mm, and in a stress treatment where the nitrogen supply was abruptly decreased from 1 to 0.01 mm during the growth period. In the treatment series, and in comparison with the control, NAR and RGR decreased, RWR increased, and SLA did not change except for the timing of ontogenetic change. Species having greater increases in the maximum rate of change in RWR also had smaller reductions in RGR; plasticity in RWR is therefore adaptive. In contrast, species which showed a greater decrease in NAR showed stronger reductions in RGR; plasticity in NAR is therefore not adaptive. Plasticity in RGR was not related to plasticity in SLA. There were no significant relationships among the plasticities in NAR, RWR or SLA. Potentially fast-growing species experienced larger reductions in RGR following the nitrogen reduction. These results suggest that competitive responses to interspecific competition for nitrogen might be positively correlated with the plasticity in the maximum rate of change in RWR in response to a reduction in nitrogen supply.

  5. Out-of-sample Forecasting Performance of Won/Dollar Exchange Rate Return Volatility Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojin Lee

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of volatility models using daily exchange rate for the KRW/USD during the period from 1992 to 2008. For various forecasting horizons, historical volatility models with a long memory tend to make more accurate forecasts. Especially, we carefully observe the difference between the EWMA and the GARCH(1,1 model. Our empirical finding that the GARCH model puts too much weight on recent observations relative to those in the past is consistent with prior evidence showing that asset market volatility has a long memory, such as Ding and Granger (1996. The forecasting model with the lowest MSFE and VaR forecast error among the models we consider is the EWMA model in which the forecast volatility for the coming period is a weighted average of recent squared return with exponentially declining weights. In terms of forecast accuracy, it clearly dominates the widely accepted GARCH and rolling window GARCH models. We also present a multiple comparison of the out-of-sample forecasting performance of volatility using the stationary bootstrap of Politis and Romano (1994. We find that the White's reality check for the GARCH(1,1 expanding window model and the FIGARCH(1,1 expanding window model clearly reject the null hypothesis and there exists a better model than the two benchmark models. On the other hand, when the EWMA model is the benchmark, the White's for all forecasting horizons are very high, which indicates the null hypothesis may not be rejected. The Hansen's report the same results. The GARCH(1,1 expanding window model and the FIGARCH(1,1 expanding window model are dominated by the best competing model in most of the forecasting horizons. In contrast, the RiskMetrics model seems to be the most preferred. We also consider combining the forecasts generated by averaging the six raw forecasts and a trimmed set of forecasts which calculate the mean of the four forecasts after disregarding the highest and

  6. Bioaccessibility of metal cations in soil is linearly related to its water exchange rate constant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laird, Brian D; Peak, Derek; Siciliano, Steven D

    2011-05-01

    Site-specific risk assessments often incorporate the concepts of bioaccessibility (i.e., contaminant fraction released into gastrointestinal fluids) or bioavailability (i.e., contaminant fraction absorbed into systemic circulation) into the calculation of ingestion exposure. We evaluated total and bioaccessible metal concentrations for 19 soil samples under simulated stomach and duodenal conditions using an in vitro gastrointestinal model. We demonstrated that the median bioaccessibility of 23 metals ranged between exchange rates of metal cations (k(H₂O)) indicated that desorption kinetics may influence if not control metal bioaccessibility.

  7. Measuring Math Anxiety (in Spanish) with the Rasch Rating Scale Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prieto, Gerardo; Delgado, Ana R

    2007-01-01

    Two successive studies probed the psychometric properties of a Math Anxiety questionnaire (in Spanish) by means of the Rasch Rating Scale Model. Participants were 411 and 216 Spanish adolescents. Convergent validity was examined by correlating the scale with both the Fennema and Sherman Attitude Scale and a math achievement test. The results show that the scores are psychometrically appropriate, and replicate those reported in meta-analyses: medium-sized negative correlations with achievement and with attitudes toward mathematics, as well as moderate sex-related differences (with girls presenting higher anxiety levels than boys).

  8. Significance of experts' overall ratings for medical student competence in relation to history-taking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Ernesto de Almeida Troncon

    Full Text Available CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Overall ratings (ORs of competence, given by expert physicians, are increasingly used in clinical skills assessments. Nevertheless, the influence of specific components of competence on ORs is incompletely understood. The aim here was to investigate whether ORs for medical student history-taking competence are influenced by performance relating to communication skills, completeness of questioning and asking contentdriven key questions. DESIGN AND SETTING: Descriptive, quantitative study at Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo. METHODS: Thirty-six medical students were examined in a 15-station high-stake objective structured clinical examination (OSCE. At four stations devoted to history-taking, examiners filled out checklists covering the components investigated and independently rated students’ overall performance using a five-point scale from 1 (poor to 5 (excellent. Physician ratings were aggregated for each student. Nonparametric correlations were made between ORs. RESULTS: ORs presented significant correlations with checklist scores (Spearman’s rs = 0.38; p = 0.02 and OSCE general results (rs = 0.52; p < 0.001. Scores for "communication skills" tended to correlate with ORs (rs = 0.31, but without reaching significance (p = 0.06. Neither the scores for "completeness" (rs = 0.26; p = 0.11 nor those for "asking key questions" (rs = 0.07; p = 0.60 correlated with ORs. CONCLUSIONS: Experts’ overall ratings for medical student competence regarding history-taking is likely to encompass a particular dimension, since ratings were only weakly influenced by specific components of performance.

  9. Relative Impacts of Low Permeability Subsurface Deposits on Recharge Basin Infiltration Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oconnell, P.; Becker, M.; Pham, C.; Rodriguez, G.; Hutchinson, A.; Plumlee, M.

    2017-12-01

    Artificial recharge of aquifers through spreading basins has become an important component of water management in semi-arid climates. The rate at which water can be recharged in these basins is limited by the natural vertical permeability of the underlying deposits which may be highly variable both laterally and vertically. To help understand hydrostratigraphic controls on recharge, a newly constructed basin was surveyed and instrumented. Prior to flooding the basin, lithology was characterized by shallow hand coring, direct push coring, ground penetrating radar, and electrical resistivity. After flooding, recharge was monitored through piezometers, electrical resistivity, and a network of fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (DTS). The DTS network used temperature as a tracer to measure infiltration rate on 25 cm intervals both laterally and vertically. Several hundred paired DTS time series datasets (from fiber optic cables located at 0 and 0.5 meters below ground surface) were processed with the cross-wavelet transform (XWT) to calculate spatially and temporally continuous infiltration rates, which can be interpolated and animated to visualize heterogeneity. Time series data from 8-meter deep, vertically oriented DTS cables reveal depth intervals where infiltration rates vary. Inverted resistivity sections from repeated dipole-dipole surveys along the sidewall of a spreading basin exhibit a positive correlation with the distribution of relatively high and low infiltration rates, indicating zones of preferential downward (efficient) and lateral (inefficient) flow, respectively. In contrast to other monitored basins, no perching was observed in the vertically oriented DTS cables. The variation in recharge across the basin and the appearance of subsurface lateral flow can be explained in context of the alluvial depositional environment.

  10. A Model for Estimation of Rain Rate on Tropical Land from TRMM Microwave Imager Radiometer Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2004-01-01

    Over the tropical land regions observations of the 85 GHz brightness temperature (T(sub 85v)) made by the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer when analyzed with the help of rain rate (R(sub pR)) deduced from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) indicate that there are two maxima in rain rate. One strong maximum occurs when T(sub 85) has a value of about 220 K and the other weaker one when T(sub 85v) is much colder approx. 150 K. Together with the help of earlier studies based on airborne Doppler Radar observations and radiative transfer theoretical simulations, we infer the maximum near 220 K is a result of relatively weak scattering due to super cooled rain drops and water coated ice hydrometeors associated with a developing thunderstorm (Cb) that has a strong updraft. The other maximum is associated with strong scattering due to ice particles that are formed when the updraft collapses and the rain from the Cb is transit2oning from convective type to stratiform type. Incorporating these ideas and with a view to improve the estimation of rain rate from existing operational method applicable to the tropical land areas, we have developed a rain retrieval model. This model utilizes two parameters, that have a horizontal scale of approx. 20km, deduced from the TMI measurements at 19, 21 and 37 GHz (T(sub 19v), T(sub 21v), T(sub 37v). The third parameter in the model, namely the horizontal gradient of brightness temperature within the 20 km scale, is deduced from TMI measurements at 85 GHz. Utilizing these parameters our retrieval model is formulated to yield instantaneous rain rate on a scale of 20 km and seasonal average on a mesoscale that agree well with that of the PR.

  11. a metabolic wastage model for the rate-yield trade off

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A METABOLIC WASTAGE MODEL FOR THE RATE-YIELD TRADE OFF. There is a growth limiting step in which an intermediate metabolite (m) has to hit a target molecule (t). ... D= rate of diffusing out. S= the rate of formation of the metabolite. The equilibrium loss decides the yield. The no. of activated targets decide the rate ...

  12. Modified Exponential (MOE) Models: statistical Models for Risk Estimation of Low dose Rate Radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogata, H.; Furukawa, C.; Kawakami, Y.; Magae, J.

    2004-01-01

    Simultaneous inclusion of dose and dose-rate is required to evaluate the risk of long term irradiation at low dose-rates, since biological responses to radiation are complex processes that depend both on irradiation time and total dose. Consequently, it is necessary to consider a model including cumulative dose,dose-rate and irradiation time to estimate quantitative dose-response relationship on the biological response to radiation. In this study, we measured micronucleus formation and (3H) thymidine uptake in U2OS, human osteosarcoma cell line, as indicators of biological response to gamma radiation. Cells were exposed to gamma ray in irradiation room bearing 50,000 Ci 60Co. After irradiation, they were cultured for 24h in the presence of cytochalasin B to block cytokinesis, and cytoplasm and nucleus were stained with DAPI and propidium iodide. The number of binuclear cells bearing a micronucleus was counted under a florescence microscope. For proliferation inhibition, cells were cultured for 48 h after the irradiation and (3h) thymidine was pulsed for 4h before harvesting. We statistically analyzed the data for quantitative evaluation of radiation risk at low dose/dose-rate. (Author)

  13. The impact of child welfare legislation on domestic violence-related homicide rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasgupta, Kabir; Pacheco, Gail

    2018-05-01

    State-specific statutes providing legal consequences for perpetrating domestic violence in the presence of a child have been enacted across the United States between 1996 and 2012. This paper examines the impact of this child welfare legislation, using a difference-in-differences approach. We find a significant drop in domestic violence-related homicide rates, when considering a wide range of victim-offender relationships. However, this result does not hold for marital homicides, suggesting that for this subpopulation, the risk of reprisal and consequent reduction in reporting may be counterbalancing the hypothesized deterrent impacts of the legislation. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Growth Rate and Relocation Movements of Common Nighthawk (Chordeiles minor) Nestlings in Relation to Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Gunnar R.; Chalfoun, Anna D.

    2012-01-01

    Relocation by dependent young is a survival strategy that occurs among a wide range of taxa. The Common Nighthawk (Chordeiles minor) lays its eggs on bare substrate and, once hatched, nestlings may relocate to new sites daily. We located and monitored eight Common Nighthawk nests in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, quantified inter-use-site distances in relation to nestling age, and calculated a nestling growth rate curve. Common Nighthawk nestlings grow in a nearly linear fashion. Nestlings moved up to 48 m in a single day and larger, older nestlings tended to move greater distances between daily use-sites.

  15. Age-related decreases in motor unit discharge rate and force control during isometric plantar flexion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kallio, J; Søgaard, Karen; Avela, J

    2012-01-01

    Aging is related to multiple changes in muscle physiology and function. Previous findings concerning the effects of aging on motor unit discharge rate (DR) and fluctuations in DR and force are somewhat contradictory. Eight YOUNG and nine OLD physically active males performed isometric ramp (RECR......) and isotonic (ISO) plantar flexions at 10 and 20% of surface EMG at MVC. Motor unit (MU) action potentials were recorded with intramuscular fine-wire electrodes and decomposed with custom build software "Daisy". DR was lower in OLD in RECR-10% (17.9%, p...

  16. Prediction of pilot opinion ratings using an optimal pilot model. [of aircraft handling qualities in multiaxis tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, R. A.

    1977-01-01

    A brief review of some of the more pertinent applications of analytical pilot models to the prediction of aircraft handling qualities is undertaken. The relative ease with which multiloop piloting tasks can be modeled via the optimal control formulation makes the use of optimal pilot models particularly attractive for handling qualities research. To this end, a rating hypothesis is introduced which relates the numerical pilot opinion rating assigned to a particular vehicle and task to the numerical value of the index of performance resulting from an optimal pilot modeling procedure as applied to that vehicle and task. This hypothesis is tested using data from piloted simulations and is shown to be reasonable. An example concerning a helicopter landing approach is introduced to outline the predictive capability of the rating hypothesis in multiaxis piloting tasks.

  17. Comparison of the predictions of the LQ and CRE models for normal tissue damage due to biologically targeted radiotherapy with exponentially decaying dose rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Donoghue, J.A.; West of Schotland Health Boards, Glasgow

    1989-01-01

    For biologically targeted radiotherapy organ dose rates may be complex functions of time, related to the biodistribution kinetics of the delivery vehicle and radiolabel. The simples situation is where dose rates are exponentially decaying functions of time. Two normal tissue isoeffect models enable the effects of exponentially decaying dose rates to be addressed. These are the extension of the linear-quadratic model and the cumulative radiation effect model. This communication will compare the predictions of these models. (author). 14 refs.; 1 fig

  18. Modeling air pollutant emissions from Indian auto-rickshaws: Model development and implications for fleet emission rate estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grieshop, Andrew P.; Boland, Daniel; Reynolds, Conor C. O.; Gouge, Brian; Apte, Joshua S.; Rogak, Steven N.; Kandlikar, Milind

    2012-04-01

    Chassis dynamometer tests were conducted on 40 Indian auto-rickshaws with 3 different fuel-engine combinations operating on the Indian Drive Cycle (IDC). Second-by-second (1 Hz) data were collected and used to develop velocity-acceleration look-up table models for fuel consumption and emissions of CO2, CO, total hydrocarbons (THC), oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for each fuel-engine combination. Models were constructed based on group-average vehicle activity and emissions data in order to represent the performance of a 'typical' vehicle. The models accurately estimated full-cycle emissions for most species, though pollutants with more variable emission rates (e.g., PM2.5) were associated with larger errors. Vehicle emissions data showed large variability for single vehicles ('intra-vehicle variability') and within the test group ('inter-vehicle variability'), complicating the development of a single model to represent a vehicle population. To evaluate the impact of this variability, sensitivity analyses were conducted using vehicle activity data other than the IDC as model input. Inter-vehicle variability dominated the uncertainty in vehicle emission modeling. 'Leave-one-out' analyses indicated that the model outputs were relatively insensitive to the specific sample of vehicles and that the vehicle samples were likely a reasonable representation of the Delhi fleet. Intra-vehicle variability in emissions was also substantial, though had a relatively minor impact on model performance. The models were used to assess whether the IDC, used for emission factor development in India, accurately represents emissions from on-road driving. Modeling based on Global Positioning System (GPS) activity data from real-world auto-rickshaws suggests that, relative to on-road vehicles in Delhi, the IDC systematically under-estimates fuel use and emissions; real-word auto-rickshaws consume 15% more fuel and emit 49% more THC and 16% more PM2.5. The models

  19. Relating masses and mixing angles. A model-independent model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollik, Wolfgang Gregor [DESY, Hamburg (Germany); Saldana-Salazar, Ulises Jesus [CINVESTAV (Mexico)

    2016-07-01

    In general, mixing angles and fermion masses are seen to be independent parameters of the Standard Model. However, exploiting the observed hierarchy in the masses, it is viable to construct the mixing matrices for both quarks and leptons in terms of the corresponding mass ratios only. A closer view on the symmetry properties leads to potential realizations of that approach in extensions of the Standard Model. We discuss the application in the context of flavored multi-Higgs models.

  20. Modeling patterns in count data using loglinear and related models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1995-12-01

    This report explains the use of loglinear and logit models, for analyzing Poisson and binomial counts in the presence of explanatory variables. The explanatory variables may be unordered categorical variables or numerical variables, or both. The report shows how to construct models to fit data, and how to test whether a model is too simple or too complex. The appropriateness of the methods with small data sets is discussed. Several example analyses, using the SAS computer package, illustrate the methods

  1. Beyond Rating Curves: Time Series Models for in-Stream Turbidity Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L.; Mukundan, R.; Zion, M.; Pierson, D. C.

    2012-12-01

    The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) manages New York City's water supply, which is comprised of over 20 reservoirs and supplies over 1 billion gallons of water per day to more than 9 million customers. DEP's "West of Hudson" reservoirs located in the Catskill Mountains are unfiltered per a renewable filtration avoidance determination granted by the EPA. While water quality is usually pristine, high volume storm events occasionally cause the reservoirs to become highly turbid. A logical strategy for turbidity control is to temporarily remove the turbid reservoirs from service. While effective in limiting delivery of turbid water and reducing the need for in-reservoir alum flocculation, this strategy runs the risk of negatively impacting water supply reliability. Thus, it is advantageous for DEP to understand how long a particular turbidity event will affect their system. In order to understand the duration, intensity and total load of a turbidity event, predictions of future in-stream turbidity values are important. Traditionally, turbidity predictions have been carried out by applying streamflow observations/forecasts to a flow-turbidity rating curve. However, predictions from rating curves are often inaccurate due to inter- and intra-event variability in flow-turbidity relationships. Predictions can be improved by applying an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model in combination with a traditional rating curve. Since 2003, DEP and the Upstate Freshwater Institute have compiled a relatively consistent set of 15-minute turbidity observations at various locations on Esopus Creek above Ashokan Reservoir. Using daily averages of this data and streamflow observations at nearby USGS gauges, flow-turbidity rating curves were developed via linear regression. Time series analysis revealed that the linear regression residuals may be represented using an ARMA(1,2) process. Based on this information, flow-turbidity regressions with

  2. Star-Triangle Relation of the Chiral Potts Model Revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Horibe, M.; Shigemoto, K.

    2001-01-01

    We give the simple proof of the star-triangle relation of the chiral Potts model. We also give the constructive way to understand the star-triangle relation of the chiral Potts model, which may give the hint to give the new integrable models.

  3. Using time-dependent models to investigate body condition and growth rate of the giant gartersnake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, P.S.; Wylie, G.D.; Halstead, B.J.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2009-01-01

    Identifying links between phenotypic attributes and fitness is a primary goal of reproductive ecology. Differences in within-year patterns of body condition between sexes of gartersnakes in relation to reproduction and growth are not fully understood. We conducted an 11-year field study of body condition and growth rate of the giant gartersnake Thamnophis gigas across 13 study areas in the Central Valley of California, USA. We developed a priori mixed effects models of body condition index (BCI), which included covariates of time, sex and snout-vent length and reported the best-approximating models using an information theoretic approach. Also, we developed models of growth rate index (GRI) using covariates of sex and periods based on reproductive behavior. The largest difference in BCI between sexes, as predicted by a non-linear (cubic) time model, occurred during the mating period when female body condition (0.014??0.001 se) was substantially greater than males (-0.027??0.002 se). Males likely allocated energy to search for mates, while females likely stored energy for embryonic development. We also provided evidence that males use more body energy reserves than females during hibernation, perhaps because of different body temperatures between sexes. We found GRI of male snakes was substantially lower during the mating period than during a non-mating period, which indicated that a trade-off existed between searching for mates and growth. These findings contribute to our understanding of snake ecology in a Mediterranean climate. ?? 2009 The Zoological Society of London.

  4. Roll paper pilot. [mathematical model for predicting pilot rating of aircraft in roll task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, F. R.; Dillow, J. D.; Hannen, R. A.

    1973-01-01

    A mathematical model for predicting the pilot rating of an aircraft in a roll task is described. The model includes: (1) the lateral-directional aircraft equations of motion; (2) a stochastic gust model; (3) a pilot model with two free parameters; and (4) a pilot rating expression that is a function of rms roll angle and the pilot lead time constant. The pilot gain and lead time constant are selected to minimize the pilot rating expression. The pilot parameters are then adjusted to provide a 20% stability margin and the adjusted pilot parameters are used to compute a roll paper pilot rating of the aircraft/gust configuration. The roll paper pilot rating was computed for 25 aircraft/gust configurations. A range of actual ratings from 2 to 9 were encountered and the roll paper pilot ratings agree quite well with the actual ratings. In addition there is good correlation between predicted and measured rms roll angle.

  5. The Modeling of Logistics and Coordination of the Rate of Commodities Production with the Rate of their Disposal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherstennykov Yuriy V.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The economic objective of the modern high-tech enterprise is the optimal expansion of its own market niche and bringing the production capacities in accordance with the current demand for the products. An important role in this respect is played by issues of optimal organization of the enterprise logistics, marketing analysis of the current demand and effective advertising campaign aimed at maximal use of the available production capacity and creation of proper conditions for developing, in particular for increasing the production capacities. The purpose of the article is the elaboration of economic and mathematical models of enterprise production activity taking into account the logistics and market demand; the use of the elaborated model to harmonize the rate of production of everyday commodities with the rate of their disposal. Two variants of the enterprise logistics schemes are analyzed. The influence of the advertising company on expanding the enterprise market niche is studied. A model that allows conducting a detailed study of the influence of market conditions on the pace of sales has been developed. It is appropriate to apply the model for the integrated coordination of the production rate of commodities of everyday demand with the dynamics of flows of commodities and services disposal.

  6. Factors related to low birth rate among married women in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Ju-Eun; Ahn, Jeong-Ah; Lee, Sun-Kyoung; Roh, Eun Ha

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the factors influencing low birth rate among married women using the National Survey data in Korea. We compared the different influences on women's first and subsequent childbirths. This study was a secondary analysis using the "National Survey on Fertility and Family Health and Welfare", which was a nationally representative survey conducted by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs. We analyzed the data of 3,482 married women (aged between 19 and 39 years) using SPSS 20.0 program for descriptive statistics, t-test, one-way ANOVA, and binary and ordinal logistic regression models. The factors influencing women's first childbirth included perceptions about the value of marriage and children and their education level. The factors influencing their subsequent childbirths included multifaceted variables of maternal age during the first childbirth, residential area, religion, monthly household income, perceptions about the value of marriage and children, and social media. It is necessary to improve women's awareness and positive perceptions about marriage and children in order to increase the birth rate in Korea. Moreover, consistently providing financial and political support for maternal and childcare concerns and using social media to foster more positive attitudes toward having children may enhance birth rates in the future.

  7. The contribution of the expanding shell test to the modeling of elastoplaticity at high strain rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Llorca, Fabrice; Buy, Francois

    2002-01-01

    The expanding shell test allows to load a material in the domain of high strain levels while strain rate is about 104s-1. This test submits an hemisphere to a radial expanding free flight, using a pyrotechnic device. The experiment (experimental apparatus, measurements...) is described with the difficulties encountered for the interpretation of the experimental data. Under some assumptions, the numerical transformation of radial velocities gives indications about the evolution of the strain, stress, strain rate and temperature rise, this last one being related to plastic work. We show how it is possible to associate both analytical and numerical approaches. Numerical simulation of the test is presented in a companion paper (see [Buy01]). Results obtained for copper, tantalum and TA6V4 are presented. The contribution of this test to the modeling of elastoplastic behavior is discussed and further works are proposed

  8. Comparison between GSTAR and GSTAR-Kalman Filter models on inflation rate forecasting in East Java

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahma Prillantika, Jessica; Apriliani, Erna; Wahyuningsih, Nuri

    2018-03-01

    Up to now, we often find data which have correlation between time and location. This data also known as spatial data. Inflation rate is one type of spatial data because it is not only related to the events of the previous time, but also has relevance to the other location or elsewhere. In this research, we do comparison between GSTAR model and GSTAR-Kalman Filter to get prediction which have small error rate. Kalman Filter is one estimator that estimates state changes due to noise from white noise. The final result shows that Kalman Filter is able to improve the GSTAR forecast result. This is shown through simulation results in the form of graphs and clarified with smaller RMSE values.

  9. Metallic stent implantation in patients with iliac artery occlusion: long-term patency rate and factors related to recurrence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Seok Kyun; Kim, Jae Kyu; Yoon, Woong; Kim, Jeong; Park, Jin Gyoon; Kang, Heoung Keun; Choi, Soo JinNa [Chonnam National University Hospital School of Medicine, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2003-09-01

    To determine the long-term patency rate in 68 patients with iliac artery occlusion who underwent metallic stent implantation, and to analyze the factors related to recurrence. Sixty-eight patients with occlusive disease of the iliac artery underwent implantation of a self-expandable metallic stent. The clinical symptoms were intermittent claudication (n=48), resting pain (n=11), and gangrene (n=9). Stent patency was determined by follow-up angiography and color Doppler imaging, and the cumulative patency rate using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to analyse recurrence-related factors involving clinical symptoms (Fontaine stage), risk factors, and anatomical factors such as lesion location, length, and the development of collaterals. The duration of follow-up varied from 1 day to 73 months (mean, 23.8 months). Arterial occlusion recurred in 16 of 68 patients (23.5%), and the cumulative patency rate was as follows: 95.4% at one month, 93.2% at six months, 80.1% at one year, 73.2% at two years, 68.9% at three years, and 62% at five years. According to a statistical analysis of risk factors, the recurrence (p=0.04) than in those without it, but in patients who smoked, hypertension, DM, and previous cerebrovascular disease were not statistically significant. With regard to anatomical factors, the recurrent rate for lesions involving the external iliac artery was 6.5 times higher (p=0.02) than for those involving the common iliac artery. Variations in the fontaine stage were not statistically significant indicators of recurrence. The recurrence rate after implantation of an iliac artery stent is higher in patients with heart disease than in those without it, and higher for occlusive lesions involving the external iliac artery than for those of the common iliac artery.

  10. Metallic stent implantation in patients with iliac artery occlusion: long-term patency rate and factors related to recurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Seok Kyun; Kim, Jae Kyu; Yoon, Woong; Kim, Jeong; Park, Jin Gyoon; Kang, Heoung Keun; Choi, Soo JinNa

    2003-01-01

    To determine the long-term patency rate in 68 patients with iliac artery occlusion who underwent metallic stent implantation, and to analyze the factors related to recurrence. Sixty-eight patients with occlusive disease of the iliac artery underwent implantation of a self-expandable metallic stent. The clinical symptoms were intermittent claudication (n=48), resting pain (n=11), and gangrene (n=9). Stent patency was determined by follow-up angiography and color Doppler imaging, and the cumulative patency rate using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to analyse recurrence-related factors involving clinical symptoms (Fontaine stage), risk factors, and anatomical factors such as lesion location, length, and the development of collaterals. The duration of follow-up varied from 1 day to 73 months (mean, 23.8 months). Arterial occlusion recurred in 16 of 68 patients (23.5%), and the cumulative patency rate was as follows: 95.4% at one month, 93.2% at six months, 80.1% at one year, 73.2% at two years, 68.9% at three years, and 62% at five years. According to a statistical analysis of risk factors, the recurrence (p=0.04) than in those without it, but in patients who smoked, hypertension, DM, and previous cerebrovascular disease were not statistically significant. With regard to anatomical factors, the recurrent rate for lesions involving the external iliac artery was 6.5 times higher (p=0.02) than for those involving the common iliac artery. Variations in the fontaine stage were not statistically significant indicators of recurrence. The recurrence rate after implantation of an iliac artery stent is higher in patients with heart disease than in those without it, and higher for occlusive lesions involving the external iliac artery than for those of the common iliac artery

  11. Persistent smoking rate after coronary revascularization and factors related to smoking cessation in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keskin, Kudret; Sezai Yildiz, Süleyman; Çetinkal, Gökhan; Çetin, Sükrü; Sigirci, Serhat; Kilci, Hakan; Aksan, Gökhan; Helvaci, Füsun; Gürdal, Ahmet; Balaban Kocas, Betül; Arslan, Sükrü; Orta Kiliçkesmez, Kadriye

    2017-11-22

    Although smoking is an established risk factor for coronary artery disease, smoking cessation efforts, as part of a lifestyle change, have been disappointing so far. Therefore, assessing current smoking trends and identifying patients who are at risk of smoking continuation is of paramount importance. In this study, our aim was to assess current smoking rates after coronary revascularization as of 2017, and to define factors that potentially affect smoking cessation. Overall, 350 patients who had undergone coronary revascularization, either by percutaneous coronary intervention or bypass surgery were included in this cross-sectional, observational study. Patients were queried for various sociodemographic characteristics and smoking habits. Disease related data were obtained from the hospital archives. The overall smoking rate was 57% after coronary revascularization. Age, bypass surgery and the occurrence of in-hospital adverse events were found to be independent predictors of smoking cessation in multivariate analysis. Despite efforts, smoking rates after coronary intervention remain substantially high. Therefore, a multidisciplinary approach to smoking cessation that incorporates cardiac rehabilitation programs and medications should be implemented in clinical practice. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  12. Evolution of mitochondrial DNA and its relation to basal metabolic rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Ping; Zhao, Huabin; Lu, Xin

    2015-08-01

    Energy metabolism is essential for the survival of animals, which can be characterized by maximum metabolic rate (MMR) and basal metabolic rate (BMR). Because of the crucial roles of mitochondria in energy metabolism, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) has been subjected to stronger purifying selection in strongly locomotive than weakly locomotive birds and mammals. Although maximum locomotive speed (an indicator of MMR) showed a negative correlation with the evolutionary rate of mtDNA, it is unclear whether BMR has driven the evolution of mtDNA. Here, we take advantage of the large amount of mtDNA and BMR data in 106 mammals to test whether BMR has influenced the mtDNA evolution. Our results showed that, in addition to the locomotive speed, mammals with higher BMR have subjected to stronger purifying selection on mtDNA than did those with lower BMR. The evolution of mammalian mtDNA has been modified by two levels of energy metabolism, including MMR and BMR. Our study provides a more comprehensive view of mtDNA evolution in relation to energy metabolism.

  13. Rate of antioxidant degradation and color variations in dehydrated apples as related to water activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavelli, Vera; Vantaggi, Claudia

    2009-06-10

    Dehydrated apples were studied to evaluate the effects of water activity on the stability of their antioxidants and color. Apples were freeze-dried, ground, then equilibrated, and stored at eight water activity levels, ranging from 0.058 to 0.747, at 40 degrees C. Their contents of hydroxycinnamic acids, dihydrochalcones, catechin, epicatechin, polymeric flavan-3-ols, and hydroxymethylfurfural, their antioxidant activity values, and their Hunter colorimetric parameters were analyzed at different storage times. Antioxidant degradation followed pseudo-first-order kinetics and was accelerated by increasing the water activity. The order of antioxidant stability in the products at water activity levels below 0.316 was catechin, epicatechin, and ascorbic acid acid acid; however, in the products at water activity levels above 0.316, the degradation of all antioxidants was very fast. The hydroxymethylfurfural formation rate increased exponentially during storage, especially at high water activity levels. The antioxidant activity of the dehydrated apples decreased during storage, consistent with antioxidant loss. The variations of the colorimetric parameters, namely, lightness (L*), redness (a*), and yellowness (b*), followed pseudo-zero-order kinetics and were accelerated by increasing water activity. All analytical indices indicated that the dehydrated apples were stable at water activity levels below 0.316, with the degradation rate accelerating upon exposure to higher relative humidities. Above 0.316, a small increase in water activity of the product would sharply increase the degradation rate constants for both antioxidant and color variations.

  14. A Systems Modeling Approach to Forecast Corn Economic Optimum Nitrogen Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laila A. Puntel

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Historically crop models have been used to evaluate crop yield responses to nitrogen (N rates after harvest when it is too late for the farmers to make in-season adjustments. We hypothesize that the use of a crop model as an in-season forecast tool will improve current N decision-making. To explore this, we used the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM calibrated with long-term experimental data for central Iowa, USA (16-years in continuous corn and 15-years in soybean-corn rotation combined with actual weather data up to a specific crop stage and historical weather data thereafter. The objectives were to: (1 evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of corn yield and economic optimum N rate (EONR predictions at four forecast times (planting time, 6th and 12th leaf, and silking phenological stages; (2 determine whether the use of analogous historical weather years based on precipitation and temperature patterns as opposed to using a 35-year dataset could improve the accuracy of the forecast; and (3 quantify the value added by the crop model in predicting annual EONR and yields using the site-mean EONR and the yield at the EONR to benchmark predicted values. Results indicated that the mean corn yield predictions at planting time (R2 = 0.77 using 35-years of historical weather was close to the observed and predicted yield at maturity (R2 = 0.81. Across all forecasting times, the EONR predictions were more accurate in corn-corn than soybean-corn rotation (relative root mean square error, RRMSE, of 25 vs. 45%, respectively. At planting time, the APSIM model predicted the direction of optimum N rates (above, below or at average site-mean EONR in 62% of the cases examined (n = 31 with an average error range of ±38 kg N ha−1 (22% of the average N rate. Across all forecast times, prediction error of EONR was about three times higher than yield predictions. The use of the 35-year weather record was better than using selected historical weather

  15. A Systems Modeling Approach to Forecast Corn Economic Optimum Nitrogen Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puntel, Laila A.; Sawyer, John E.; Barker, Daniel W.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Castellano, Michael J.; Moore, Kenneth J.; VanLoocke, Andrew; Heaton, Emily A.; Archontoulis, Sotirios V.

    2018-01-01

    Historically crop models have been used to evaluate crop yield responses to nitrogen (N) rates after harvest when it is too late for the farmers to make in-season adjustments. We hypothesize that the use of a crop model as an in-season forecast tool will improve current N decision-making. To explore this, we used the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) calibrated with long-term experimental data for central Iowa, USA (16-years in continuous corn and 15-years in soybean-corn rotation) combined with actual weather data up to a specific crop stage and historical weather data thereafter. The objectives were to: (1) evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of corn yield and economic optimum N rate (EONR) predictions at four forecast times (planting time, 6th and 12th leaf, and silking phenological stages); (2) determine whether the use of analogous historical weather years based on precipitation and temperature patterns as opposed to using a 35-year dataset could improve the accuracy of the forecast; and (3) quantify the value added by the crop model in predicting annual EONR and yields using the site-mean EONR and the yield at the EONR to benchmark predicted values. Results indicated that the mean corn yield predictions at planting time (R2 = 0.77) using 35-years of historical weather was close to the observed and predicted yield at maturity (R2 = 0.81). Across all forecasting times, the EONR predictions were more accurate in corn-corn than soybean-corn rotation (relative root mean square error, RRMSE, of 25 vs. 45%, respectively). At planting time, the APSIM model predicted the direction of optimum N rates (above, below or at average site-mean EONR) in 62% of the cases examined (n = 31) with an average error range of ±38 kg N ha−1 (22% of the average N rate). Across all forecast times, prediction error of EONR was about three times higher than yield predictions. The use of the 35-year weather record was better than using selected historical weather years

  16. A Systems Modeling Approach to Forecast Corn Economic Optimum Nitrogen Rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puntel, Laila A; Sawyer, John E; Barker, Daniel W; Thorburn, Peter J; Castellano, Michael J; Moore, Kenneth J; VanLoocke, Andrew; Heaton, Emily A; Archontoulis, Sotirios V

    2018-01-01

    Historically crop models have been used to evaluate crop yield responses to nitrogen (N) rates after harvest when it is too late for the farmers to make in-season adjustments. We hypothesize that the use of a crop model as an in-season forecast tool will improve current N decision-making. To explore this, we used the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) calibrated with long-term experimental data for central Iowa, USA (16-years in continuous corn and 15-years in soybean-corn rotation) combined with actual weather data up to a specific crop stage and historical weather data thereafter. The objectives were to: (1) evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of corn yield and economic optimum N rate (EONR) predictions at four forecast times (planting time, 6th and 12th leaf, and silking phenological stages); (2) determine whether the use of analogous historical weather years based on precipitation and temperature patterns as opposed to using a 35-year dataset could improve the accuracy of the forecast; and (3) quantify the value added by the crop model in predicting annual EONR and yields using the site-mean EONR and the yield at the EONR to benchmark predicted values. Results indicated that the mean corn yield predictions at planting time ( R 2 = 0.77) using 35-years of historical weather was close to the observed and predicted yield at maturity ( R 2 = 0.81). Across all forecasting times, the EONR predictions were more accurate in corn-corn than soybean-corn rotation (relative root mean square error, RRMSE, of 25 vs. 45%, respectively). At planting time, the APSIM model predicted the direction of optimum N rates (above, below or at average site-mean EONR) in 62% of the cases examined ( n = 31) with an average error range of ±38 kg N ha -1 (22% of the average N rate). Across all forecast times, prediction error of EONR was about three times higher than yield predictions. The use of the 35-year weather record was better than using selected historical weather

  17. Policy impact of the Indonesian Central Bank certificate related on loan interest rate to the demand growth of property

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirjodirdjo, B.; Asjari, H. Y.

    2018-04-01

    The Indonesian economic indicators shown a positive progress in the last three years, Foreign exchange reserves position of the end of March 2017 stood at US 121.8 billion higher than the position of the end of 2015 amounted to US 105.9 billion of the end of 2015. This reserve would ensure the resilience and maintaining sustainable Indonesian economic growth in the future. Although Indonesia’s foreign exchange is better, the structure of expenditure in the country is still less than ideal due the proportion of spending of consumer goods is far greater than the capital goods and tend to be unproductive spending. This needs to be regulated so that in the long term does not cause balance of payments deficit. Therefore, Indonesian Central Bank took a policy to raise interest rates for retail banks from 6% to 7.25% per annum gradually up to present. Policies relating to the interest rates on loans are intended to reduce the proportion of debt financing of consumer goods, however, these policies have implications to various economic sectors and one of those is property sector. A lot of research has been conducted related the impact of loan interest to the property sector but most of it is still in partial related to the ability the people to buy. However, this research has tried to see the implication of the macro Economic Policy of Indonesian Central Bank to the property sector as a systemic problem. This paper is going to present the study on the effects of these policies on the property sector, especially residence house. To obtain a comprehensive analysis and capture the relationship between interest rate policies and their impacts to the property sector, in this study the model developed and simulated using system dynamic methodology as an approach. Various scenarios are applied to the model to get an accurate information about how and when the effectiveness of the policy related to the property sector can be enforced. The result of this study can be delivered to

  18. Relating high-temperature flow stress of AISI 316 stainless steel to strain and strain rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matteazzi, S.; Paitti, G.; Boerman, D.

    1982-01-01

    The authors have performed an experimental determination of tensile stress-strain curves for different strain rates (4.67 x 10 - 5 , 4.67 x 10 - 2 s - 1 ) and for a variety of temperature conditions (773-1073 K) of AISI 316H stainless steel (annealed conditions) and also a computer analysis of the experimental curves using a fitting program which takes into consideration different constitutive relations describing the plastic flow behaviour of the metals. The results show that the materials tested are clearly affected by strain rate only at the highest temperature investigated (1073 K) and that the plastic strain is the more significant variable. Of the constitutive equations considered, Voce's relation gives the best fit for the true stress-time-strain curves. However, the Ludwik and Ludwigson equations also provide a description of the experimental data, whereas Hollomon's equation does not suitably characterize AISI 316H stainless steel and can be applied with some accuracy only at 1073 K. (author)

  19. Spontaneous eye blink rate as predictor of dopamine-related cognitive function-A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jongkees, Bryant J; Colzato, Lorenza S

    2016-12-01

    An extensive body of research suggests the spontaneous eye blink rate (EBR) is a non-invasive indirect marker of central dopamine (DA) function, with higher EBR predicting higher DA function. In the present review we provide a comprehensive overview of this literature. We broadly divide the available research in studies that aim to disentangle the dopaminergic underpinnings of EBR, investigate its utility in diagnosis of DA-related disorders and responsivity to drug treatment, and, lastly, investigate EBR as predictor of individual differences in DA-related cognitive performance. We conclude (i) EBR can reflect both DA receptor subtype D1 and D2 activity, although baseline EBR might be most strongly related to the latter, (ii) EBR can predict hypo- and hyperdopaminergic activity as well as normalization of this activity following treatment, and (iii) EBR can reliably predict individual differences in performance on many cognitive tasks, in particular those related to reward-driven behavior and cognitive flexibility. In sum, this review establishes EBR as a useful predictor of DA in a wide variety of contexts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. A review on pipeline corrosion, in-line inspection (ILI), and corrosion growth rate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanaei, H.R.; Eslami, A.; Egbewande, A.

    2017-01-01

    Pipelines are the very important energy transmission systems. Over time, pipelines can corrode. While corrosion could be detected by in-line inspection (ILI) tools, corrosion growth rate prediction in pipelines is usually done through corrosion rate models. For pipeline integrity management and planning selecting the proper corrosion ILI tool and also corrosion growth rate model is important and can lead to significant savings and safer pipe operation. In this paper common forms of pipeline corrosion, state of the art ILI tools, and also corrosion growth rate models are reviewed. The common forms of pipeline corrosion introduced in this paper are Uniform/General Corrosion, Pitting Corrosion, Cavitation and Erosion Corrosion, Stray Current Corrosion, Micro-Bacterial Influenced Corrosion (MIC). The ILI corrosion detection tools assessed in this study are Magnetic Flux Leakage (MFL), Circumferential MFL, Tri-axial MFL, and Ultrasonic Wall Measurement (UT). The corrosion growth rate models considered in this study are single-value corrosion rate model, linear corrosion growth rate model, non-linear corrosion growth rate model, Monte-Carlo method, Markov model, TD-GEVD, TI-GEVD model, Gamma Process, and BMWD model. Strengths and limitations of ILI detection tools, and also corrosion predictive models with some practical examples are discussed. This paper could be useful for those whom are supporting pipeline integrity management and planning. - Highlights: • Different forms of pipeline corrosion are explained. • Common In-Line Inspection (ILI) tools and corrosion growth rate models are introduced. • Strength and limitations of corrosion growth rate models/ILI tools are discussed. • For pipeline integrity management programs using more than one corrosion growth rate model/ILI tool is suggested.

  1. Self-rated health in relation to rape and mental health disorders in a national sample of women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amstadter, Ananda B; McCauley, Jenna L; Ruggiero, Kenneth J; Resnick, Heidi S; Kilpatrick, Dean G

    2011-04-01

    Overall health status is associated with long-term physical morbidity and mortality. Existing research on the correlates of mental health effects of rape suggests that rape victims are at higher risk for poor overall health status. Little is known, however, about how different rape tactics may relate to health status in rape victims. Our aim was to examine prevalence and correlates of self-rated health in a community sample of women, with particular emphasis on lifetime rape history (distinguishing between rape tactics), psychopathology, and substance use outcomes. A nationally representative sample of 3,001 U.S. women (age range: 18-86 years) residing in households with a telephone participated in a structured telephone interview. Poor self-rated health was endorsed by 11.4% of the sample. Final multivariable models showed that poor self-rated health was associated with older age (pdepressive episode (MDE; p=.01), and history of forcible rape (p=.01). Self-rated health was associated with three potentially modifiable variables (forcible rape, PTSD, and MDE). Therefore, trauma-focused interventions for rape victims should include collaboration on treatment or prevention modules that specifically address both mental and physical health. © 2011 American Orthopsychiatric Association.

  2. Medication-related problem type and appearance rate in ambulatory hemodialysis patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drayer Debra K

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hemodialysis (HD patients are at risk for medication-related problems (MRP. The MRP number, type, and appearance rate over time in ambulatory HD patients has not been investigated. Methods Randomly selected HD patients were enrolled to receive monthly pharmaceutical care visits. At each visit, MRP were identified through review of the patient chart, electronic medical record, patient interview, and communications with other healthcare disciplines. All MRP were categorized by type and medication class. MRP appearance rate was determined as the number of MRP identified per month/number of months in study. The number of MRP per patient-drug exposures were determined using: {[(number of patients × (mean number of medications]/(number of months of study} /number of MRP identified. Results were expressed as mean ± standard deviation or percentages. Results Patients were 62.6 ± 15.9 years old, had 6.4 ± 2.0 comorbid conditions, were taking 12.5 ± 4.2 medications, and 15.7 ± 7.2 doses per day at baseline. Medication-dosing problems (33.5%, adverse drug reactions (20.7%, and an indication that was not currently being treated (13.5% were the most common MRP. 5,373 medication orders were reviewed and a MRP was identified every 15.2 medication exposures. Overall MRP appearance rate was 0.68 ± 0.46 per patient per month. Conclusion MRP continue to occur at a high rate in ambulatory HD patients. Healthcare providers taking care of HD patients should be aware of this problem and efforts to avoid or resolve MRP should be undertaken at all HD clinics.

  3. Lifestyle-related attitudes: do they explain self-rated health and life-satisfaction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickard, A Simon; Jalundhwala, Yash J; Bewsher, Helen; Sharp, Lisa K; Walton, Surrey M; Schumock, Glen T; Caskey, Rachel N

    2018-05-01

    Strategies to improve public health may benefit from targeting specific lifestyles associated with poor health behaviors and outcomes. The aim of this study was to characterize and examine the relationship between health and lifestyle-related attitudes (HLAs) and self-rated health and life-satisfaction. Secondary analyses were conducted on data from a 2012 community wellness survey in Kirklees, UK. Using a validated HLA tool, respondents (n = 9130) were categorized into five segments: health conscious realists (33%), balanced compensators (14%), live-for-todays (18%), hedonistic immortals (10%), and unconfident fatalists (25%). Multivariate regression was used to examine whether HLAs could explain self-rated health using the EQ-5D visual analog scale (EQ-VAS) and life-satisfaction. Health conscious realists served as the reference group. Self-rated health differed by HLA, with adjusted mean EQ-VAS scores being significantly higher (better) among balanced compensators (1.15, 95% CI 0.27, 2.03) and lower scores among unconfident fatalists (- 9.02, 95% CI - 9.85, - 8.21) and live-for-todays (- 1.96, 95% CI - 2.80, - 1.14). Balanced compensators were less likely to report low life-satisfaction (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.62, 0.90), while unconfident fatalists were most likely to have low life-satisfaction (OR 3.51, 95% CI 2.92, 4.23). Segmentation by HLA explained differences in self-rated health and life-satisfaction, with unconfident fatalists being a distinct segment with significantly worse health perceptions and life-satisfaction. Health promotion efforts may benefit from considering the HLA segment that predominates a patient group, especially unconfident fatalists.

  4. Surface applicators for high dose rate brachytherapy in AIDS-related kaposi's sarcoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, Michael D.C.; Yassa, Mariam; Podgorsak, Ervin B.; Roman, Ted N.; Schreiner, L. John; Souhami, Luis

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: The development of commercially available surface applicators using high dose rate remote afterloading devices has enabled radiotherapy centers to treat selected superficial lesions using a remote afterloading brachytherapy unit. The dosimetric parameters of these applicators, the clinical implementation of this technique, and a review of the initial patient treatment regimes are presented. Methods and Materials: A set of six fixed-diameter (1, 2, and 3 cm), tungsten/steel surface applicators is available for use with a single stepping-source (Ir-192, 370 GBq) high dose rate afterloader. The source can be positioned either in a parallel or perpendicular orientation to the treatment plane at the center of a conical aperture that sits at an SSD of approximately 15 mm and is used with a 1-mm thick removable plastic cap. The surface dose rates, percent depth dose, and off-axis ratios were measured. A custom-built, ceiling-mounted immobilization device secures the applicator on the surface of the patient's lesion during treatment. Results: Between November 1994, and September 1996, 16 AIDS-related Kaposi's sarcoma patients having a total of 120 lesions have been treated with palliative intent. Treatment sites were distributed between the head and neck, extremity, and torso. Doses ranged from 8 to 20 Gy, with a median dose of 10 Gy delivered in a single fraction. Treatments were well tolerated with minimal skin reaction, except for patients with lesions treated to 20 Gy who developed moderate/severe desquamation. Conclusion: Radiotherapy centers equipped with a high dose rate remote afterloading unit may treat small selected surface lesions with commercially available surface applicators. These surface applicators must be used with a protective cap to eliminate electron contamination. The optimal surface dose appears to be either 10 or 15 Gy depending upon the height of the lesion

  5. The semiotics of control and modeling relations in complex systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joslyn, C

    2001-01-01

    We provide a conceptual analysis of ideas and principles from the systems theory discourse which underlie Pattee's semantic or semiotic closure, which is itself foundational for a school of theoretical biology derived from systems theory and cybernetics, and is now being related to biological semiotics and explicated in the relational biological school of Rashevsky and Rosen. Atomic control systems and models are described as the canonical forms of semiotic organization, sharing measurement relations, but differing topologically in that control systems are circularly and models linearly related to their environments. Computation in control systems is introduced, motivating hierarchical decomposition, hybrid modeling and control systems, and anticipatory or model-based control. The semiotic relations in complex control systems are described in terms of relational constraints, and rules and laws are distinguished as contingent and necessary functional entailments, respectively. Finally, selection as a meta-level of constraint is introduced as the necessary condition for semantic relations in control systems and models.

  6. An improved model for considering strain rate effects on reinforced concrete elements behavior under dynamic loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sim, J.; Soroushian, P.

    1989-01-01

    An improved model for predicting the reinforced concrete element behavior under dynamic strain rates was developed using the layer modeling technique. The developed strain rate sensitive model for axial/flexural analysis of reinforced concrete elements was used to predict the test results, performed at different loading rates, and the predictions were reasonable. The developed analysis technique was used to study the loading rate sensitivity of reinforced concrete beams and columns with different geometry and material properties. Two design formulas for computing the loading rate dependent axial and flexural strengths of reinforced concrete sections are suggested

  7. Mathematical modelling of the death rate dynamics in mammals with intestinal form of radiation sicleness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smirnova, O.A.

    1990-01-01

    A mathematical models has been developed to describe the death rate dynamics in irradiated mammals. The model links statistical biometric functions with statistical and dynamic characteristics of the organism's 'critical' system. There is an agreement between the results of modelling and experiments with respect to death rate dynamics of small laboratory animals subjected to acute and chronic irradiation with doses and dose-rates at which small intestine epithelium is 'ctitical'

  8. Use cases and related business models for smart cities infrastructures

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dlodlo, N

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available related business model is described. A business model describes the value proposition, market segment, and cost structure, position in the network of competitors, the competitive advantage and the infrastructure of a business entity. This research started...

  9. Analysis of isothermal and cooling rate dependent immersion freezing by a unifying stochastic ice nucleation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpert, P. A.; Knopf, D. A.

    2015-05-01

    Immersion freezing is an important ice nucleation pathway involved in the formation of cirrus and mixed-phase clouds. Laboratory immersion freezing experiments are necessary to determine the range in temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) at which ice nucleation occurs and to quantify the associated nucleation kinetics. Typically, isothermal (applying a constant temperature) and cooling rate dependent immersion freezing experiments are conducted. In these experiments it is usually assumed that the droplets containing ice nuclei (IN) all have the same IN surface area (ISA), however the validity of this assumption or the impact it may have on analysis and interpretation of the experimental data is rarely questioned. A stochastic immersion freezing model based on first principles of statistics is presented, which accounts for variable ISA per droplet and uses physically observable parameters including the total number of droplets (Ntot) and the heterogeneous ice nucleation rate coefficient, Jhet(T). This model is applied to address if (i) a time and ISA dependent stochastic immersion freezing process can explain laboratory immersion freezing data for different experimental methods and (ii) the assumption that all droplets contain identical ISA is a valid conjecture with subsequent consequences for analysis and interpretation of immersion freezing. The simple stochastic model can reproduce the observed time and surface area dependence in immersion freezing experiments for a variety of methods such as: droplets on a cold-stage exposed to air or surrounded by an oil matrix, wind and acoustically levitated droplets, droplets in a continuous flow diffusion chamber (CFDC), the Leipzig aerosol cloud interaction simulator (LACIS), and the aerosol interaction and dynamics in the atmosphere (AIDA) cloud chamber. Observed time dependent isothermal frozen fractions exhibiting non-exponential behavior with time can be readily explained by this model considering varying ISA. An

  10. A complex-valued firing-rate model that approximates the dynamics of spiking networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evan S Schaffer

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Firing-rate models provide an attractive approach for studying large neural networks because they can be simulated rapidly and are amenable to mathematical analysis. Traditional firing-rate models assume a simple form in which the dynamics are governed by a single time constant. These models fail to replicate certain dynamic features of populations of spiking neurons, especially those involving synchronization. We present a complex-valued firing-rate model derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation and apply it to the linear, quadratic and exponential integrate-and-fire models. Despite being almost as simple as a traditional firing-rate description, this model can reproduce firing-rate dynamics due to partial synchronization of the action potentials in a spiking model, and it successfully predicts the transition to spike synchronization in networks of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons.

  11. A complex-valued firing-rate model that approximates the dynamics of spiking networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffer, Evan S; Ostojic, Srdjan; Abbott, L F

    2013-10-01

    Firing-rate models provide an attractive approach for studying large neural networks because they can be simulated rapidly and are amenable to mathematical analysis. Traditional firing-rate models assume a simple form in which the dynamics are governed by a single time constant. These models fail to replicate certain dynamic features of populations of spiking neurons, especially those involving synchronization. We present a complex-valued firing-rate model derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation and apply it to the linear, quadratic and exponential integrate-and-fire models. Despite being almost as simple as a traditional firing-rate description, this model can reproduce firing-rate dynamics due to partial synchronization of the action potentials in a spiking model, and it successfully predicts the transition to spike synchronization in networks of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons.

  12. Modeling the bathtub shape hazard rate function in terms of reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, K.S.; Hsu, F.S.; Liu, P.P.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, a general form of bathtub shape hazard rate function is proposed in terms of reliability. The degradation of system reliability comes from different failure mechanisms, in particular those related to (1) random failures, (2) cumulative damage, (3) man-machine interference, and (4) adaptation. The first item is referred to the modeling of unpredictable failures in a Poisson process, i.e. it is shown by a constant. Cumulative damage emphasizes the failures owing to strength deterioration and therefore the possibility of system sustaining the normal operation load decreases with time. It depends on the failure probability, 1-R. This representation denotes the memory characteristics of the second failure cause. Man-machine interference may lead to a positive effect in the failure rate due to learning and correction, or negative from the consequence of human inappropriate habit in system operations, etc. It is suggested that this item is correlated to the reliability, R, as well as the failure probability. Adaptation concerns with continuous adjusting between the mating subsystems. When a new system is set on duty, some hidden defects are explored and disappeared eventually. Therefore, the reliability decays combined with decreasing failure rate, which is expressed as a power of reliability. Each of these phenomena brings about the failures independently and is described by an additive term in the hazard rate function h(R), thus the overall failure behavior governed by a number of parameters is found by fitting the evidence data. The proposed model is meaningful in capturing the physical phenomena occurring during the system lifetime and provides for simpler and more effective parameter fitting than the usually adopted 'bathtub' procedures. Five examples of different type of failure mechanisms are taken in the validation of the proposed model. Satisfactory results are found from the comparisons

  13. Identification of strain-rate and thermal sensitive material model with an inverse method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peroni M.

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a numerical inverse method to extract material strength parameters from the experimental data obtained via mechanical tests at different strainrates and temperatures. It will be shown that this procedure is particularly useful to analyse experimental results when the stress-strain fields in the specimen cannot be correctly described via analytical models. This commonly happens in specimens with no regular shape, in specimens with a regular shape when some instability phenomena occur (for example the necking phenomena in tensile tests that create a strongly heterogeneous stress-strain fields or in dynamic tests (where the strain-rate field is not constant due to wave propagation phenomena. Furthermore the developed procedure is useful to take into account thermal phenomena generally affecting high strain-rate tests due to the adiabatic overheating related to the conversion of plastic work. The method presented requires strong effort both from experimental and numerical point of view, anyway it allows to precisely identify the parameters of different material models. This could provide great advantages when high reliability of the material behaviour is necessary. Applicability of this method is particularly indicated for special applications in the field of aerospace engineering, ballistic, crashworthiness studies or particle accelerator technologies, where materials could be submitted to strong plastic deformations at high-strain rate in a wide range of temperature. Thermal softening effect has been investigated in a temperature range between 20°C and 1000°C.

  14. Strain Rate Dependent Behavior and Modeling for Compression Response of Hybrid Fiber Reinforced Concrete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M. Ibrahim

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper investigates the stress-strain characteristics of Hybrid fiber reinforced concrete (HFRC composites under dynamic compression using Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar (SHPB for strain rates in the range of 25 to 125 s-1. Three types of fibers - hooked ended steel fibers, monofilament crimped polypropylene fibers and staple Kevlar fibers were used in the production of HFRC composites. The influence of different fibers in HFRC composites on the failure mode, dynamic increase factor (DIF of strength, toughness and strain are also studied. Degree of fragmentation of HFRC composite specimens increases with increase in the strain rate. Although the use of high percentage of steel fibers leads to the best performance but among the hybrid fiber combinations studied, HFRC composites with relatively higher percentage of steel fibers and smaller percentage of polypropylene and Kevlar fibers seem to reflect the equally good synergistic effects of fibers under dynamic compression. A rate dependent analytical model is proposed for predicting complete stress-strain curves of HFRC composites. The model is based on a comprehensive fiber reinforcing index and complements well with the experimental results.

  15. Personality, relationship conflict, and teamwork-related mental models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vîrgă, D.; Curseu, P.L.; Maricuţoiu, L.; Sava, S.A.; Macsinga, I.; Măgurean, S.

    2014-01-01

    This study seeks to explore whether neuroticism, agreeableness, and conscientiousness moderate the influence of relationship conflict experienced in groups on changes in group members' evaluative cognitions related to teamwork quality (teamwork-related mental models). Data from 216 students, nested

  16. Qualitative analysis of nonlinear incidence rate upon the behaviour of an epidemiological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xiaogui.

    1988-12-01

    Two theorems concerning the solutions of the system of differential equations describing an epidemiological model with nonlinear incidence rate per infective individual are demonstrated. 2 refs, 1 fig

  17. Dosimetry Modeling for Focal Low-Dose-Rate Prostate Brachytherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Qaisieh, Bashar [Leeds Cancer Centre, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Leeds (United Kingdom); Mason, Josh, E-mail: joshua.mason@nhs.net [Leeds Cancer Centre, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Leeds (United Kingdom); Bownes, Peter; Henry, Ann [Leeds Cancer Centre, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Leeds (United Kingdom); Dickinson, Louise [Division of Surgery and Interventional Science, University College London, London (United Kingdom); Department of Radiology, Northwick Park Hospital, London North West NHS Trust, London (United Kingdom); Ahmed, Hashim U. [Division of Surgery and Interventional Science, University College London, London (United Kingdom); University College London Hospital, London (United Kingdom); Emberton, Mark [University College London Hospital, London (United Kingdom); Langley, Stephen [St Luke' s Cancer Centre, Guildford (United Kingdom)

    2015-07-15

    Purpose: Focal brachytherapy targeted to an individual lesion(s) within the prostate may reduce side effects experienced with whole-gland brachytherapy. The outcomes of a consensus meeting on focal prostate brachytherapy were used to investigate optimal dosimetry of focal low-dose-rate (LDR) prostate brachytherapy targeted using multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mp-MRI) and transperineal template prostate mapping (TPM) biopsy, including the effects of random and systematic seed displacements and interseed attenuation (ISA). Methods and Materials: Nine patients were selected according to clinical characteristics and concordance of TPM and mp-MRI. Retrospectively, 3 treatment plans were analyzed for each case: whole-gland (WG), hemi-gland (hemi), and ultra-focal (UF) plans, with 145-Gy prescription dose and identical dose constraints for each plan. Plan robustness to seed displacement and ISA were assessed using Monte Carlo simulations. Results: WG plans used a mean 28 needles and 81 seeds, hemi plans used 17 needles and 56 seeds, and UF plans used 12 needles and 25 seeds. Mean D90 (minimum dose received by 90% of the target) and V100 (percentage of the target that receives 100% dose) values were 181.3 Gy and 99.8% for the prostate in WG plans, 195.7 Gy and 97.8% for the hemi-prostate in hemi plans, and 218.3 Gy and 99.8% for the focal target in UF plans. Mean urethra D10 was 205.9 Gy, 191.4 Gy, and 92.4 Gy in WG, hemi, and UF plans, respectively. Mean rectum D2 cm{sup 3} was 107.5 Gy, 77.0 Gy, and 42.7 Gy in WG, hemi, and UF plans, respectively. Focal plans were more sensitive to seed displacement errors: random shifts with a standard deviation of 4 mm reduced mean target D90 by 14.0%, 20.5%, and 32.0% for WG, hemi, and UF plans, respectively. ISA has a similar impact on dose-volume histogram parameters for all plan types. Conclusions: Treatment planning for focal LDR brachytherapy is feasible. Dose constraints are easily met with a notable

  18. Extension of the master sintering curve for constant heating rate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, Tammy Michelle

    The purpose of this work is to extend the functionality of the Master Sintering Curve (MSC) such that it can be used as a practical tool for predicting sintering schemes that combine both a constant heating rate and an isothermal hold. Rather than just being able to predict a final density for the object of interest, the extension to the MSC will actually be able to model a sintering run from start to finish. Because the Johnson model does not incorporate this capability, the work presented is an extension of what has already been shown in literature to be a valuable resource in many sintering situations. A predicted sintering curve that incorporates a combination of constant heating rate and an isothermal hold is more indicative of what is found in real-life sintering operations. This research offers the possibility of predicting the sintering schedule for a material, thereby having advanced information about the extent of sintering, the time schedule for sintering, and the sintering temperature with a high degree of accuracy and repeatability. The research conducted in this thesis focuses on the development of a working model for predicting the sintering schedules of several stabilized zirconia powders having the compositions YSZ (HSY8), 10Sc1CeSZ, 10Sc1YSZ, and 11ScSZ1A. The compositions of the four powders are first verified using x-ray diffraction (XRD) and the particle size and surface area are verified using a particle size analyzer and BET analysis, respectively. The sintering studies were conducted on powder compacts using a double pushrod dilatometer. Density measurements are obtained both geometrically and using the Archimedes method. Each of the four powders is pressed into ¼" diameter pellets using a manual press with no additives, such as a binder or lubricant. Using a double push-rod dilatometer, shrinkage data for the pellets is obtained over several different heating rates. The shrinkage data is then converted to reflect the change in relative

  19. A Study of Analytical Solution for the Special Dissolution Rate Model of Rock Salt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available By calculating the concentration distributions of rock salt solutions at the boundary layer, an ordinary differential equation for describing a special dissolution rate model of rock salt under the assumption of an instantaneous diffusion process was established to investigate the dissolution mechanism of rock salt under transient but stable conditions. The ordinary differential equation was then solved mathematically to give an analytical solution and related expressions for the dissolved radius and solution concentration. Thereafter, the analytical solution was fitted with transient dissolution test data of rock salt to provide the dissolution parameters at different flow rates, and the physical meaning of the analytical formula was also discussed. Finally, the influential factors of the analytical formula were investigated. There was approximately a linear relationship between the dissolution parameters and the flow rate. The effects of the dissolution area and initial volume of the solution on the dissolution rate equation of rock salt were computationally investigated. The results showed that the present analytical solution gives a good description of the dissolution mechanism of rock salt under some special conditions, which may provide a primary theoretical basis and an analytical way to investigate the dissolution characteristics of rock salt.

  20. Gaussian model for emission rate measurement of heated plumes using hyperspectral data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grauer, Samuel J.; Conrad, Bradley M.; Miguel, Rodrigo B.; Daun, Kyle J.

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents a novel model for measuring the emission rate of a heated gas plume using hyperspectral data from an FTIR imaging spectrometer. The radiative transfer equation (RTE) is used to relate the spectral intensity of a pixel to presumed Gaussian distributions of volume fraction and temperature within the plume, along a line-of-sight that corresponds to the pixel, whereas previous techniques exclusively presume uniform distributions for these parameters. Estimates of volume fraction and temperature are converted to a column density by integrating the local molecular density along each path. Image correlation velocimetry is then employed on raw spectral intensity images to estimate the volume-weighted normal velocity at each pixel. Finally, integrating the product of velocity and column density along a control surface yields an estimate of the instantaneous emission rate. For validation, emission rate estimates were derived from synthetic hyperspectral images of a heated methane plume, generated using data from a large-eddy simulation. Calculating the RTE with Gaussian distributions of volume fraction and temperature, instead of uniform distributions, improved the accuracy of column density measurement by 14%. Moreover, the mean methane emission rate measured using our approach was within 4% of the ground truth. These results support the use of Gaussian distributions of thermodynamic properties in calculation of the RTE for optical gas diagnostics.

  1. Differentiation of pain ratings in combat-related posttraumatic stress disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraus, Anja; Geuze, Elbert; Schmahl, Christian; Greffrath, Wolfgang; Treede, Rolf-Detlef; Bohus, Martin; Vermetten, Eric

    2009-06-01

    Although posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with chronic pain, preliminary evidence suggests reduced experimental pain sensitivity in this disorder. The questions addressed in the present study were whether pain perception would also be reduced in PTSD patients who are not suffering from chronic pain symptoms, and whether a reduction in pain sensitivity would also be present in combat veterans who did not develop PTSD. For this, we determined thermal detection and pain thresholds in 10 male combat-related PTSD patients, 10 combat control subjects (no PTSD) and 10 healthy controls without combat experience. All subjects were pain free. First, we measured thermal sensory thresholds with ramped heat and cold stimuli using the method of limits. Ramped thermal sensory stimulation revealed no deficits for the detection of (non-noxious) f2.1thermal stimuli between groups. In contrast, heat and cold pain thresholds in both combat groups (PTSD and combat controls) were significantly increased compared to healthy controls. However, these stimuli could not distinguish between the two groups due to ceiling effects. When using longer-lasting heat stimulation at different temperatures (30s duration; method of fixed stimuli), we found significantly lower frequency of pain reports in PTSD patients compared with both combat and healthy controls, as well as significantly lower pain ratings. Our results suggest an association of PTSD with reduced pain sensitivity, which could be related to PTSD-related (neuro-)psychological alterations or to a pre-existing risk factor for the disorder.

  2. Differences in rain rate intensities between TRMM observations and community atmosphere model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Yi; Bowman, Kenneth P.; Jackson, Charles

    2007-01-01

    Precipitation related latent heating is important in driving the atmospheric general circulation and in generating intraseasonal to decadal atmospheric variability. Our ability to project future climate change, especially trends in costly precipitation extremes, hinges upon whether coupled GCMs capture processes that affect precipitation characteristics. Our study compares the tropical-subtropical precipitation characteristics of simulations by the NCAR CAM3.1 atmospheric GCM and observations derived from the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Despite a fairly good simulation of the annual mean rain rate, CAM rains about 10-50% more often than the real world and fails to capture heavy rainfall associated with deep convective systems over subtropical South America and U.S. Southern Plains. When it rains, there is a likelihood of 0.96-1.0 that it rains lightly in the model, compared to values of 0.84-1.0 in TRMM data. On the other hand, the likelihood of the occurrence of moderate to heavy rainfall is an order of magnitude higher in observations (0.12-0.2) than that in the model (model compensates for the lack of heavy precipitation through raining more frequently within the light rain category, which leads to an annual rainfall amount close to what is observed. CAM captures the qualitative change of rain rate PDF from a "dry" oceanic to a "wet" oceanic region, but it fails to simulate the change of precipitation characteristics from an oceanic region to a land region where thunderstorm rainfall dominates.

  3. A global reference for caesarean section rates (C-Model): a multicountry cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, J P; Betran, A P; Dumont, A; de Mucio, B; Gibbs Pickens, C M; Deneux-Tharaux, C; Ortiz-Panozo, E; Sullivan, E; Ota, E; Togoobaatar, G; Carroli, G; Knight, H; Zhang, J; Cecatti, J G; Vogel, J P; Jayaratne, K; Leal, M C; Gissler, M; Morisaki, N; Lack, N; Oladapo, O T; Tunçalp, Ö; Lumbiganon, P; Mori, R; Quintana, S; Costa Passos, A D; Marcolin, A C; Zongo, A; Blondel, B; Hernández, B; Hogue, C J; Prunet, C; Landman, C; Ochir, C; Cuesta, C; Pileggi-Castro, C; Walker, D; Alves, D; Abalos, E; Moises, Ecd; Vieira, E M; Duarte, G; Perdona, G; Gurol-Urganci, I; Takahiko, K; Moscovici, L; Campodonico, L; Oliveira-Ciabati, L; Laopaiboon, M; Danansuriya, M; Nakamura-Pereira, M; Costa, M L; Torloni, M R; Kramer, M R; Borges, P; Olkhanud, P B; Pérez-Cuevas, R; Agampodi, S B; Mittal, S; Serruya, S; Bataglia, V; Li, Z; Temmerman, M; Gülmezoglu, A M

    2016-02-01

    To generate a global reference for caesarean section (CS) rates at health facilities. Cross-sectional study. Health facilities from 43 countries. Thirty eight thousand three hundred and twenty-four women giving birth from 22 countries for model building and 10,045,875 women giving birth from 43 countries for model testing. We hypothesised that mathematical models could determine the relationship between clinical-obstetric characteristics and CS. These models generated probabilities of CS that could be compared with the observed CS rates. We devised a three-step approach to generate the global benchmark of CS rates at health facilities: creation of a multi-country reference population, building mathematical models, and testing these models. Area under the ROC curves, diagnostic odds ratio, expected CS rate, observed CS rate. According to the different versions of the model, areas under the ROC curves suggested a good discriminatory capacity of C-Model, with summary estimates ranging from 0.832 to 0.844. The C-Model was able to generate expected CS rates adjusted for the case-mix of the obstetric population. We have also prepared an e-calculator to facilitate use of C-Model (www.who.int/reproductivehealth/publications/maternal_perinatal_health/c-model/en/). This article describes the development of a global reference for CS rates. Based on maternal characteristics, this tool was able to generate an individualised expected CS rate for health facilities or groups of health facilities. With C-Model, obstetric teams, health system managers, health facilities, health insurance companies, and governments can produce a customised reference CS rate for assessing use (and overuse) of CS. The C-Model provides a customized benchmark for caesarean section rates in health facilities and systems. © 2015 World Health Organization; licensed by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

  4. Application of the TDABC model in the logistics process using different capacity cost rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Afonso

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The understanding of logistics process in terms of costs and profitability is a complex task and there is a need of more research and applied work on these issues. In this research project, the concepts underlying Time-Driven Activity Based Costing (TDABC have been used in the context of logistics costs. Design/methodology/approach: A Distribution Centre of wood and carpentry related materials has been studied. A multidisciplinary team has been composed to support the project including the researchers and three employees of the company responsible for accounting, logistics and warehousing. The design and implementation of the costing model asked for a deep understanding of the different tasks and processes that should be considered. Accordingly, a TDABC model for the logistics function was developed. Findings: The cost model presented here is supported on a series of time equations designed for the logistics function which allow the analysis and discussion of costs and profitability of different cost objects namely, products, clients, distribution channels, processes and activities. The cost of unused capacity and the effectiveness of logistics processes are also highlighted in this model. Research limitations/implications: In a case study, results and implications cannot be directly or immediately generalized. Nevertheless, the proposed time equations and cost model can be easily adapted to explain other types of logistics functions and it gives the foundations or other TDABC models with more than one capacity cost rate. Practical implications: The TDABC model developed in this case study can be used in similar cases and as a basis for the analysis of logistics costs in other logistics processes. Furthermore, managers can rely on the proposed approach to analyze products’ profitability and logistics cost structure.  Originality/value: In this case, different capacity cost rates were computed in order to reflect appropriately the

  5. Application of the TDABC model in the logistics process using different capacity cost rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afonso, Paulo; Santana, Alex

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The understanding of logistics process in terms of costs and profitability is a complex task and there is a need of more research and applied work on these issues. In this research project, the concepts underlying Time-Driven Activity Based Costing (TDABC) have been used in the context of logistics costs. Design/methodology/approach: A Distribution Centre of wood and carpentry related materials has been studied. A multidisciplinary team has been composed to support the project including the researchers and three employees of the company responsible for accounting, logistics and warehousing. The design and implementation of the costing model asked for a deep understanding of the different tasks and processes that should be considered. Accordingly, a TDABC model for the logistics function was developed. Findings: The cost model presented here is supported on a series of time equations designed for the logistics function which allow the analysis and discussion of costs and profitability of different cost objects namely, products, clients, distribution channels, processes and activities. The cost of unused capacity and the effectiveness of logistics processes are also highlighted in this model. Research limitations/implications: In a case study, results and implications cannot be directly or immediately generalized. Nevertheless, the proposed time equations and cost model can be easily adapted to explain other types of logistics functions and it gives the foundations or other TDABC models with more than one capacity cost rate. Practical implications: The TDABC model developed in this case study can be used in similar cases and as a basis for the analysis of logistics costs in other logistics processes. Furthermore, managers can rely on the proposed approach to analyze products’ profitability and logistics cost structure. Originality/value: In this case, different capacity cost rates were computed in order to reflect appropriately the logistics function which

  6. Application of the TDABC model in the logistics process using different capacity cost rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Afonso, Paulo; Santana, Alex

    2016-07-01

    Purpose: The understanding of logistics process in terms of costs and profitability is a complex task and there is a need of more research and applied work on these issues. In this research project, the concepts underlying Time-Driven Activity Based Costing (TDABC) have been used in the context of logistics costs. Design/methodology/approach: A Distribution Centre of wood and carpentry related materials has been studied. A multidisciplinary team has been composed to support the project including the researchers and three employees of the company responsible for accounting, logistics and warehousing. The design and implementation of the costing model asked for a deep understanding of the different tasks and processes that should be considered. Accordingly, a TDABC model for the logistics function was developed. Findings: The cost model presented here is supported on a series of time equations designed for the logistics function which allow the analysis and discussion of costs and profitability of different cost objects namely, products, clients, distribution channels, processes and activities. The cost of unused capacity and the effectiveness of logistics processes are also highlighted in this model. Research limitations/implications: In a case study, results and implications cannot be directly or immediately generalized. Nevertheless, the proposed time equations and cost model can be easily adapted to explain other types of logistics functions and it gives the foundations or other TDABC models with more than one capacity cost rate. Practical implications: The TDABC model developed in this case study can be used in similar cases and as a basis for the analysis of logistics costs in other logistics processes. Furthermore, managers can rely on the proposed approach to analyze products’ profitability and logistics cost structure. Originality/value: In this case, different capacity cost rates were computed in order to reflect appropriately the logistics function which

  7. [Prediction of schistosomiasis infection rates of population based on ARIMA-NARNN model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke-Wei, Wang; Yu, Wu; Jin-Ping, Li; Yu-Yu, Jiang

    2016-07-12

    To explore the effect of the autoregressive integrated moving average model-nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (ARIMA-NARNN) model on predicting schistosomiasis infection rates of population. The ARIMA model, NARNN model and ARIMA-NARNN model were established based on monthly schistosomiasis infection rates from January 2005 to February 2015 in Jiangsu Province, China. The fitting and prediction performances of the three models were compared. Compared to the ARIMA model and NARNN model, the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ARIMA-NARNN model were the least with the values of 0.011 1, 0.090 0 and 0.282 4, respectively. The ARIMA-NARNN model could effectively fit and predict schistosomiasis infection rates of population, which might have a great application value for the prevention and control of schistosomiasis.

  8. Relative rates of nitric oxide and nitrous oxide production by nitrifiers, denitrifiers, and nitrate respirers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, I. C.; Levine, J. S.

    1986-01-01

    An account is given of the atmospheric chemical and photochemical effects of biogenic nitric and nitrous oxide emissions. The magnitude of the biogenic emission of NO is noted to remain uncertain. Possible soil sources of NO and N2O encompass nitrification by autotropic and heterotropic nitrifiers, denitrification by nitrifiers and denitrifiers, nitrate respiration by fermenters, and chemodenitrification. Oxygen availability is the primary determinant of these organisms' relative rates of activity. The characteristics of this major influence are presently investigated in light of the effect of oxygen partial pressure on NO and N2O production by a wide variety of common soil-nitrifying, denitrifying, and nitrate-respiring bacteria under laboratory conditions. The results obtained indicate that aerobic soils are primary sources only when there is sufficient moisture to furnish anaerobic microsites for denitrification.

  9. Observational study of the relationship between entrainment rate and relative dispersion in deep convective clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiaohao; Lu, Chunsong; Zhao, Tianliang; Liu, Yangang; Zhang, Guang Jun; Luo, Shi

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates the influence of entrainment rate (λ) on relative dispersion (ε) of cloud droplet size distributions (CDSD) in the 99 growing precipitating deep convective clouds during TOGA-COARE. The results show that entrainment suppresses ε, which is opposite to the traditional understanding that entrainment-mixing broadens CDSD. To examine how the relationship between ε and λ is affected by droplets with different sizes, CDSDs are divided into three portions with droplet radius processes is developed to illustrate the possible scenarios entailing different relationships between ε and λ. The number concentration of small droplets and the degree of evaporation of small droplets are found to be key factors that shift the sign (i.e., positive or negative) of the ε-λ relationship.

  10. Dispersion relation and growth rate of a relativistic electron beam propagating through a Langmuir wave wiggler

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zirak, H.; Jafari, S.

    2015-06-01

    In this study, a theory of free-electron laser (FEL) with a Langmuir wave wiggler in the presence of an axial magnetic field has been presented. The small wavelength of the plasma wave (in the sub-mm range) allows obtaining higher frequency than conventional wiggler FELs. Electron trajectories have been obtained by solving the equations of motion for a single electron. In addition, a fourth-order Runge-Kutta method has been used to simulate the electron trajectories. Employing a perturbation analysis, the dispersion relation for an electromagnetic and space-charge waves has been derived by solving the momentum transfer, continuity, and wave equations. Numerical calculations show that the growth rate increases with increasing the e-beam energy and e-beam density, while it decreases with increasing the strength of the axial guide magnetic field.

  11. Relation between Silver Nanoparticle Formation Rate and Antioxidant Capacity of Aqueous Plant Leaf Extracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azat Akbal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Correlation between the antioxidant capacity and silver nanoparticle formation rates of pomegranate (Punica granatum, quince (Cydonia oblonga, chestnut (Castanea sativa, fig (Ficus carica, walnut (Juglans cinerea, black mulberry (Morus nigra, and white mulberry (Morus alba leaf extracts is investigated at a fixed illumination. Silver nanoparticles formed in all plant leaf extracts possess round shapes with average particle size of 15 to 25 nm, whereas corresponding surface plasmon resonance peak wavelengths vary between 422 nm and 451 nm. Cupric reducing antioxidant capacity technique is used as a reference method to determine total antioxidant capacity of the plant leaf extracts. Integrated absorbance over the plasmon resonance peaks exhibits better linear relation with antioxidant capacities of various plant leaf extracts compared to peak absorbance values, with correlation coefficient values of 0.9333 and 0.7221, respectively.

  12. Physiological Study on the Relation of Heart Rate Variability in Ageing and Thyroid Hormone Disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elsayed A. M. Shokr

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed to investigate whether cardiac autonomic dysfunction in aging human might be related to an underlying thyroid disturbance. ageing has been associated with hypothyroidism and cardiac autonomic dysfunction. On the basis of body mass index (BMI, 150 patients were grouped into three groups (n = 50 48 years ± 2, 55 years ± 2 and 63 years ± 2. Electrocardiogram was recorded using PowerLab system and the time and frequency domain measures of heart rate variability (HRV were calculated. Fasting blood samples were drawn for measurement of serum thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH, total thyroxin (T4 and total triiodothyronine (T3 concentrations. The levels of TSH, T4 and T3 were not significantly different between the groups. The frequency domain HRV parameter reflecting parasympathetic tone (high-frequency normalized units, HFnu was significantly reduced in aging third groups group. The parameters which reflect sympathetic activation (Heart rate, low-frequency normalized units; LFnu and the LF/HF ratio were significantly increased in the aging group. HFnu was significantly and negatively correlated with age, whereas LFnu and LF/HF ratio were significantly and positively correlated with the above mentioned parameters. No significant relationships were noted between the HRV parameters and the levels of TSH or thyroid hormones. Cardiac autonomic dysfunction in aging human is not linked with underlying thyroid disturbance.

  13. Multi-target QSPR modeling for simultaneous prediction of multiple gas-phase kinetic rate constants of diverse chemicals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basant, Nikita; Gupta, Shikha

    2018-03-01

    The reactions of molecular ozone (O3), hydroxyl (•OH) and nitrate (NO3) radicals are among the major pathways of removal of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the atmospheric environment. The gas-phase kinetic rate constants (kO3, kOH, kNO3) are thus, important in assessing the ultimate fate and exposure risk of atmospheric VOCs. Experimental data for rate constants are not available for many emerging VOCs and the computational methods reported so far address a single target modeling only. In this study, we have developed a multi-target (mt) QSPR model for simultaneous prediction of multiple kinetic rate constants (kO3, kOH, kNO3) of diverse organic chemicals considering an experimental data set of VOCs for which values of all the three rate constants are available. The mt-QSPR model identified and used five descriptors related to the molecular size, degree of saturation and electron density in a molecule, which were mechanistically interpretable. These descriptors successfully predicted three rate constants simultaneously. The model yielded high correlations (R2 = 0.874-0.924) between the experimental and simultaneously predicted endpoint rate constant (kO3, kOH, kNO3) values in test arrays for all the three systems. The model also passed all the stringent statistical validation tests for external predictivity. The proposed multi-target QSPR model can be successfully used for predicting reactivity of new VOCs simultaneously for their exposure risk assessment.

  14. Relating coccolithophore calcification rates to phytoplankton community dynamics: Regional differences and implications for carbon export

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulton, Alex J.; Adey, Tim R.; Balch, William M.; Holligan, Patrick M.

    2007-03-01

    Recent measurements of surface coccolithophore calcification from the Atlantic Ocean (50°N-50°S) are compared to similar measurements from other oceanic settings. By combining the different data sets of surface measurements, we examine general and regional patterns of calcification relative to organic carbon production (photosynthesis) and other characteristics of the phytoplankton community. Generally, surface calcification and photosynthesis are positively correlated, although the strength of the relationship differs between biogeochemical provinces. Relationships between surface calcification, chlorophyll- a and calcite concentrations are also statistically significant, although again there is considerable regional variability. Such variability appears unrelated to phytoplankton community composition or hydrographic conditions, and may instead reflect variations in coccolithophore physiology. The contribution of inorganic carbon fixation (calcification) to total carbon fixation (calcification plus photosynthesis) is ˜1-10%, and we estimate a similar contribution from coccolithophores to total organic carbon fixation. However, these contributions vary between biogeochemical provinces, and occasionally coccolithophores may account for >20% of total carbon fixation in unproductive central subtropical gyres. Combining surface calcification and photosynthetic rates with standing stocks of calcite, particulate organic carbon, and estimated phytoplankton carbon allows us to examine the fates of these three carbon pools. The relative turnover times vary between different biogeochemical provinces, with no clear relationship to the overall productivity or phytoplankton community structure found in each province. Rather, interaction between coccolithophore physiology (coccolith production and detachment rates), species diversity (cell size), and food web dynamics (grazer ecology) may control the composition and turnover times of calcite particles in the upper ocean.

  15. Nasal congestion in relation to low air exchange rate in schools. Evaluation by acoustic rhinometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wålinder, R; Norbäck, D; Wieslander, G; Smedje, G; Erwall, C

    1997-09-01

    Upper airway symptoms are common, but there is little information available on clinical findings in relation to indoor air pollution. This pilot study was conducted to test whether increased levels of indoor air pollutants in schools may correlate to a swelling of the nasal mucosa. The assumption was made that the degree of swelling could be related to the degree of decongestive effect of xylometazoline, and measured by acoustic rhinometry. The study was performed among 15 subjects in a school with low air exchange rate (0.6 air changes/h) and 12 subjects in a school with high air exchange rate (5.2 air changes/h). Hygienic measurements were performed in both schools. Acoustic rhinometry was performed for each individual under standardized forms. Cross-sectional areas and volumes of the nasal cavity were measured before and after decongestion with xylometazoline hydrochloride. Absolute values of the minimal cross-sectional area were lower in the school with poor ventilation. The decongestive effect of xylometazoline was significantly higher in the school with low air exchange, when correction for the influence of age was made. A diminished decongestive effect was seen with increasing age. The exposure measurements showed that indoor concentrations of volatile organic compounds, bacteria and moulds were higher in the school with low ventilation. In conclusion, raised levels of indoor air pollutants due to inadequate ventilation in schools may affect the upper airways and cause a swelling of the nasal mucosa, and acoustic rhinometry could be a useful objective method to measure human nasal reactions to the indoor environment.

  16. Bayesian Analysis for Dynamic Generalized Linear Latent Model with Application to Tree Survival Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-sheng Cheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Logistic regression model is the most popular regression technique, available for modeling categorical data especially for dichotomous variables. Classic logistic regression model is typically used to interpret relationship between response variables and explanatory variables. However, in real applications, most data sets are collected in follow-up, which leads to the temporal correlation among the data. In order to characterize the different variables correlations, a new method about the latent variables is introduced in this study. At the same time, the latent variables about AR (1 model are used to depict time dependence. In the framework of Bayesian analysis, parameters estimates and statistical inferences are carried out via Gibbs sampler with Metropolis-Hastings (MH algorithm. Model comparison, based on the Bayes factor, and forecasting/smoothing of the survival rate of the tree are established. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the proposed method and a pika data set is analyzed to illustrate the real application. Since Bayes factor approaches vary significantly, efficiency tests have been performed in order to decide which solution provides a better tool for the analysis of real relational data sets.

  17. Comprehensive analyses of ventricular myocyte models identify targets exhibiting favorable rate dependence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan A Cummins

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Reverse rate dependence is a problematic property of antiarrhythmic drugs that prolong the cardiac action potential (AP. The prolongation caused by reverse rate dependent agents is greater at slow heart rates, resulting in both reduced arrhythmia suppression at fast rates and increased arrhythmia risk at slow rates. The opposite property, forward rate dependence, would theoretically overcome these parallel problems, yet forward rate dependent (FRD antiarrhythmics remain elusive. Moreover, there is evidence that reverse rate dependence is an intrinsic property of perturbations to the AP. We have addressed the possibility of forward rate dependence by performing a comprehensive analysis of 13 ventricular myocyte models. By simulating populations of myocytes with varying properties and analyzing population results statistically, we simultaneously predicted the rate-dependent effects of changes in multiple model parameters. An average of 40 parameters were tested in each model, and effects on AP duration were assessed at slow (0.2 Hz and fast (2 Hz rates. The analysis identified a variety of FRD ionic current perturbations and generated specific predictions regarding their mechanisms. For instance, an increase in L-type calcium current is FRD when this is accompanied by indirect, rate-dependent changes in slow delayed rectifier potassium current. A comparison of predictions across models identified inward rectifier potassium current and the sodium-potassium pump as the two targets most likely to produce FRD AP prolongation. Finally, a statistical analysis of results from the 13 models demonstrated that models displaying minimal rate-dependent changes in AP shape have little capacity for FRD perturbations, whereas models with large shape changes have considerable FRD potential. This can explain differences between species and between ventricular cell types. Overall, this study provides new insights, both specific and general, into the determinants of

  18. Risky forward interest rates and swaptions: Quantum finance model and empirical results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal Ehsan; Yu, Miao; Bhanap, Jitendra

    2018-02-01

    Risk free forward interest rates (Diebold and Li, 2006 [1]; Jamshidian, 1991 [2 ]) - and their realization by US Treasury bonds as the leading exemplar - have been studied extensively. In Baaquie (2010), models of risk free bonds and their forward interest rates based on the quantum field theoretic formulation of the risk free forward interest rates have been discussed, including the empirical evidence supporting these models. The quantum finance formulation of risk free forward interest rates is extended to the case of risky forward interest rates. The examples of the Singapore and Malaysian forward interest rates are used as specific cases. The main feature of the quantum finance model is that the risky forward interest rates are modeled both a) as a stand-alone case as well as b) being driven by the US forward interest rates plus a spread - having its own term structure -above the US forward interest rates. Both the US forward interest rates and the term structure for the spread are modeled by a two dimensional Euclidean quantum field. As a precursor to the evaluation of put option of the Singapore coupon bond, the quantum finance model for swaptions is tested using empirical study of swaptions for the US Dollar -showing that the model is quite accurate. A prediction for the market price of the put option for the Singapore coupon bonds is obtained. The quantum finance model is generalized to study the Malaysian case and the Malaysian forward interest rates are shown to have anomalies absent for the US and Singapore case. The model's prediction for a Malaysian interest rate swap is obtained.

  19. Negotiation as a Model for Teaching Public Relations Professionalism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, Martha Dunagin; Perrigo, Eileen

    1998-01-01

    Shows that negotiation provides an effective model for teaching public relations professionalism. Describes how two professors in a public relations class used a negotiation model to teach students to simultaneously balance the two components of professionalism: ethical considerations and pragmatic, problem-solving measures. (SR)

  20. Correlation and clinical significance between glomerular filtration rate and age in living-related kidney donors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Xiuyi; Shao Yahui; Wang Yanming; Zhang Aimin; Hao Junwen; Tian Jun; Sun Ben; Han Jiankui

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To quantitatively investigate the effect of age on the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in living-related kidney donors. to analyze the clinical value and the dependence of GFR on age and to provide an objective basis for the selection of the living kidney donor. Methods: One hundred and sixty-one living-related kidney donors were divided into four age groups, namely 20-29 years (n=52), 30-39 years (n=44), 40-49 years (n=38) and ≥50 years (n=27). On the other hand, the total donors were divided into the groups older than 55 years (n=24) and younger than 55 years (n=137). To quantify GFR in all the subjects using the 99 Tc m -diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid ( 99 Tc m -DTPA) renography according to standard procedure and to evaluate the effects of age on renal function. Results: The total GFR in living-related kidney donors was calculated as (89.55±12.87) ml·min -1 ·(1.73 m 2 ) -1 . The GFR in the first to the four age groups were (88.27±12.29) ml·min -1 ·(1.73 m 2 ) -1 , (91.85±14.51) ml·min -1 ·(1.73 m 2 ) -1 , (98.25±11.26) ml·min -1 ·(1.73 m 2 ) -1 and (88.24±13.20) ml·min -1 ·(1.73 m 2 ) -1 . The difference of GFR were not significant between the four age groups (F=2.09, P=0.10). The GFR in the donors older than 55 years and younger than 55 years were (88.57±13.14) ml·min -1 ·(1.73 m 2 ) -1 and (89.44±10.34) ml·min -1 ·(1.73 m 2 ) -1 , there no significant difference in GFR between the two groups (F=1.31, P=0.25). When relating GFR to age in all the living-related kidney donors, there was no significant correlation (r=-0.033, P=0.69). No serious complications occurred after living kidney transplantation, serum creatinine values and blood urea nitrogen recovered to the normal levels in a short period, hepatic and renal functions were normal. Conclusion: This study indicated that the GFR values were not correlated with the change of age in living-related kidney donors, and the results were helpful for the selection of living

  1. Assessing rates of forest change and fragmentation in Alabama, USA, using the vegetation change tracker model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mingshi; Huang, Chengquan; Zhu, Zhiliang; Shi, Hua; Lu, Heng; Peng, Shikui

    2009-01-01

    Forest change is of great concern for land use decision makers and conservation communities. Quantitative and spatial forest change information is critical for addressing many pressing issues, including global climate change, carbon budgets, and sustainability. In this study, our analysis focuses on the differences in geospatial patterns and their changes between federal forests and nonfederal forests in Alabama over the time period 1987–2005, by interpreting 163 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes using a vegetation change tracker (VCT) model. Our analysis revealed that for the most part of 1990 s and between 2000 and 2005, Alabama lost about 2% of its forest on an annual basis due to disturbances, but much of the losses were balanced by forest regeneration from previous disturbances. The disturbance maps revealed that federal forests were reasonably well protected, with the fragmentation remaining relatively stable over time. In contrast, nonfederal forests, which are predominant in area share (about 95%), were heavily disturbed, clearly demonstrating decreasing levels of fragmentation during the time period 1987–1993 giving way to a subsequent accelerating fragmentation during the time period 1994–2005. Additionally, the identification of the statistical relationships between forest fragmentation status and forest loss rate and forest net change rate in relation to land ownership implied the distinct differences in forest cutting rate and cutting patterns between federal forests and nonfederal forests. The forest spatial change information derived from the model has provided valuable insights regarding regional forest management practices and disturbance regimes, which are closely associated with regional economics and environmental concerns.

  2. A generalized one-factor term structure model and pricing of interest rate derivative securities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, George J.

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to propose a nonparametric interest rate term structure model and investigate its implications on term structure dynamics and prices of interest rate derivative securities. The nonparametric spot interest rate process is estimated from the observed short-term interest

  3. Error associated with model predictions of wildland fire rate of spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguel G. Cruz; Martin E. Alexander

    2015-01-01

    How well can we expect to predict the spread rate of wildfires and prescribed fires? The degree of accuracy in model predictions of wildland fire behaviour characteristics are dependent on the model's applicability to a given situation, the validity of the model's relationships, and the reliability of the model input data (Alexander and Cruz 2013b#. We...

  4. Rate dependent inelastic behavior of polycrystalline solids using a dislocation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werne, R.W.; Kelly, J.M.

    1980-01-01

    A rate dependent theory of polycrystalline plasticity is presented in which the solid is modeled as an isotropic continuum with internal variables. The rate of plastic deformation is shown to be a function of the deviatoric portion of the Cauchy stress tensor as well as two scalar internal variables. The scalar internal variables, which are the dislocation density and mobile fraction, are governed by rate equations which reflect the evolution of microstructural processes. The model has been incorporated into a two dimensional finite element code and several example multidimensional problems are presented which exhibit the rate dependence of the material model

  5. Modeling and estimating the jump risk of exchange rates: Applications to RMB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yiming; Tong, Hanfei

    2008-11-01

    In this paper we propose a new type of continuous-time stochastic volatility model, SVDJ, for the spot exchange rate of RMB, and other foreign currencies. In the model, we assume that the change of exchange rate can be decomposed into two components. One is the normally small-cope innovation driven by the diffusion motion; the other is a large drop or rise engendered by the Poisson counting process. Furthermore, we develop a MCMC method to estimate our model. Empirical results indicate the significant existence of jumps in the exchange rate. Jump components explain a large proportion of the exchange rate change.

  6. Modeling the influence of potassium content and heating rate on biomass pyrolysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trubetskaya, Anna; Surup, Gerrit; Shapiro, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    This study presents a combined kinetic and particle model that describes the effect of potassium and heating rate during the fast pyrolysis of woody and herbaceous biomass. The model calculates the mass loss rate, over a wide range of operating conditions relevant to suspension firing...

  7. Predicting Graduation Rates at 4-Year Broad Access Institutions Using a Bayesian Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crisp, Gloria; Doran, Erin; Salis Reyes, Nicole A.

    2018-01-01

    This study models graduation rates at 4-year broad access institutions (BAIs). We examine the student body, structural-demographic, and financial characteristics that best predict 6-year graduation rates across two time periods (2008-2009 and 2014-2015). A Bayesian model averaging approach is utilized to account for uncertainty in variable…

  8. Model for the evaluation and prediction of production rate of sinter ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A model has been derived for evaluation and prediction of production rate of sinter machine operating on vertical mode. The quadratic model expressed as: P = 0.4395 V – 0.0526 V2 + 0.54, showed that the production rate of the sinter machine was dependent on the vertical sintering height. The maximum deviation of the ...

  9. Modelling rate distributions using character compatibility: implications for morphological evolution among fossil invertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Peter J

    2012-02-23

    Rate distributions are important considerations when testing hypotheses about morphological evolution or phylogeny. They also have implications about general processes underlying character evolution. Molecular systematists often assume that rates are Poisson processes with gamma distributions. However, morphological change is the product of multiple probabilistic processes and should theoretically be affected by hierarchical integration of characters. Both factors predict lognormal rate distributions. Here, a simple inverse modelling approach assesses the best single-rate, gamma and lognormal models given observed character compatibility for 115 invertebrate groups. Tests reject the single-rate model for nearly all cases. Moreover, the lognormal outperforms the gamma for character change rates and (especially) state derivation rates. The latter in particular is consistent with integration affecting morphological character evolution.

  10. Relative rates of B meson decays into psi(2S) and J/psi mesons

    OpenAIRE

    Abazov, V. M.; Abbott, B.; Abolins, M.; Acharya, B. S.; Adams, M.; Adams, T.; Aguilo, E.; Ahn, S. H.; Ahsan, M.; Alexeev, G. D.; Alkhazov, G.; Alton, A.; Alverson, G.; Alves, G. A.; Anastasoaie, M.

    2009-01-01

    We report on a study of the relative rates of B meson decays into ψ(2S) and J/ψ mesons using 1.3  fb-1 of pp̅ collisions at √s=1.96  TeV recorded by the D0 detector operating at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We observe the channels Bs0→ψ(2S)ϕ, Bs0→J/ψϕ, B±→ψ(2S)K±, and B±→J/ψK± and we measure the relative branching fractions for these channels to be B(Bs0→ψ(2S)ϕ)/B(Bs0→J/ψϕ)=0.53±0.10(stat)±0.07(syst)±0.06(B), B(B±→ψ(2S)K±)/B(B±→J/ψK±)=0.63±0.05(stat)±0.03(syst)±0.07(B),where the final erro...

  11. Cesarean Section Rate in Singleton Primiparae and Related Factors in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Geng; Wei, Yu-Mei; Zhu, Wei-Wei; Yang, Hui-Xia

    2017-10-20

    The cesarean section rate (CSR) has been a main concern worldwide. The present study aimed to investigate the CSR in Beijing, China, and to analyze the related factors of CS delivery. An observational study was conducted in 15 medical centers in Beijing using a systemic cluster sampling method. In total, 15,194 pregnancies were enrolled in the study between June 20, 2013 and November 30, 2013. Independent t-tests and Pearson's Chi-square test were used to examine differences between two groups, and related factors of the CSR were examined by multivariable logistic regression. The CSR was 41.9% (4471/10,671) in singleton primiparae. Women who were more than 35 years old had a 7.4-fold increased risk of CS delivery compared with women level. Neonates weighing 3000-3499 g had the lowest CSR (36.2%). Neonates weighing levels, residence, education level, and singleton fetal birth weight are all factors that might significantly affect the CSR.

  12. Relative rates of albumin equilibration in the skin interstitium and lymph during vasodilation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Powers, M.R.; Wallace, J.R.; Bell, D.R.

    1986-01-01

    The initial equilibration of 125 I-labeled albumin between the vascular and extravascular compartments was studied in hindpaw skin of 6 anesthetized rabbits. Papavarine (200 ug/min) was infused into a small branch of the femoral artery of one limb with the contralateral limb as a control. There was a 1.2-fold increase in lymph flow (p 131 I-labeled albumin injected 10 min before ending the experiment. Endogenous albumin was measured in plasma, lymph, and tissue samples using rocket electroimmunoassay. After 3 hrs of tracer infusion, lymph specific activity relative to plasma was significantly greater in the vasodilated hindlimb (0.30 +/- 0.07 vs 0.13 +/- 0.05; mean +/- SE; p < 0.01). Extravascular specific activity relative to plasma was greater in the vasodilated limb (0.13 +/- 0.02 vs 0.09 +/- 0.02; p < 0.05). Thus, vasodilation increased the rates at which lymph and tissue equilibrate with plasma. Also, the difference between lymph and tissue equilibration was greater in the vasodilated hindlimb

  13. A solution to the online guidance problem for targeted reaches: proportional rate control using relative disparity tau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Joe; Bingham, Geoffrey P

    2010-09-01

    We provide a solution to a major problem in visually guided reaching. Research has shown that binocular vision plays an important role in the online visual guidance of reaching, but the visual information and strategy used to guide a reach remains unknown. We propose a new theory of visual guidance of reaching including a new information variable, tau(alpha) (relative disparity tau), and a novel control strategy that allows actors to guide their reach trajectories visually by maintaining a constant proportion between tau(alpha) and its rate of change. The dynamical model couples the information to the reaching movement to generate trajectories characteristic of human reaching. We tested the theory in two experiments in which participants reached under conditions of darkness to guide a visible point either on a sliding apparatus or on their finger to a point-light target in depth. Slider apparatus controlled for a simple mapping from visual to proprioceptive space. When reaching with their finger, participants were forced, by perturbation of visual information used for feedforward control, to use online control with only binocular disparity-based information for guidance. Statistical analyses of trajectories strongly supported the theory. Simulations of the model were compared statistically to actual reaching trajectories. The results supported the theory, showing that tau(alpha) provides a source of information for the control of visually guided reaching and that participants use this information in a proportional rate control strategy.

  14. Measurement of the Current Related Damage Rate at {-}50(°) C and Consequences on Macropixel Detector Operation in Space Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segneri, Gabriele; Brown, Craig; Carpenter, James-D.; Kuhnle, Bernd; Lauf, Thomas; Lechner, Peter; Lutz, Gerhard; Rummel, Stefan; Struder, Lothar; Treis, Johannes; Whitford, Chris

    2009-12-01

    A diode irradiation with 10-MeV protons was performed to measure the silicon current related damage rate at a temperature of -50°C. This measurement was fundamental to predict the performance of the detectors which will be used in the X-ray spectrometers of the Simbol-X and BepiColombo space missions. These detectors consist of arrays of large area silicon drift chambers with integrated depleted p-channel field effect transistors. The leakage current increase due to radiation damage and its consequent energy resolution degradation can be critical for these missions, specially for BepiColombo. These effects cannot be predicted because, during the whole missions, the sensors will be kept at temperatures below -40°C, and the existing models are based on measurements on structures which underwent annealing at higher temperatures. An irradiation experiment was performed to measure the current related damage rate at - 50°C, and the obtained value was (11.1 ± 0.2) X 10-17 A/cm. This result implies that it will be possible to achieve the Simbol-X energy resolution, whereas some annealing strategies will be needed for the BepiColombo mission. The annealing behaviour at 60°C was studied as well and the results are in agreement with the already available measurements.

  15. Concurrent relations among cigarette smoking status, resting heart rate variability, and erectile response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harte, Christopher B

    2014-05-01

    Heart rate variability (HRV) is a marker of sympathovagal balance; it has been implicated in erectile function and is also altered by tobacco use. Furthermore, smoking and erectile health are strongly related, given that smokers are at increased risk for erectile dysfunction. Few studies have explored the interrelationships between smoking, HRV, and erectile function concurrently. The aim of this study was to examine potential mechanisms underlying tobacco's effects on penile hemodynamics by exploring the mediating role of HRV. The sample comprised 119 men (smokers = 64; nonsmokers = 55) (mean age 28.90 years; standard deviation (SD) 11.68; range 18-58) selected from the control conditions of three previously published experiments. Participants were free from a history of cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarct, and/or cardiac/cardiovascular medication use. During a laboratory visit, self-report, anthropometric, cardiovascular, and electrocardiographic data were assessed, as well as sexual arousal responses elicited from viewing an erotic film. Objective sexual arousal indices (circumferential change via penile plethysmography), self-reported erectile function (per the erectile function domain score of the International Index of Erectile Function [IIEF-EF]), and time- (SD of beat-to-beat intervals) and frequency-domain parameters of HRV (ratio of low-frequency [LF] power to high-frequency [HF] power [LF/HF ratio]) were assessed. Being a current long-term cigarette smoker was associated with dysregulated sympathovagal balance (higher LF/HF ratios, indicative of sympathetic nervous system dominance), which in turn showed inverse relations with magnitude of erectile tumescence. HRV did not mediate relations between tobacco use and either IIEF-EF scores or resting penile circumference. Findings suggest that dysfunctional cardiac autonomic tone may be an underlying mechanism by which tobacco exerts its deleterious effects on erectile health. Further research

  16. Fuzzy time series forecasting model with natural partitioning length approach for predicting the unemployment rate under different degree of confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramli, Nazirah; Mutalib, Siti Musleha Ab; Mohamad, Daud

    2017-08-01

    Fuzzy time series forecasting model has been proposed since 1993 to cater for data in linguistic values. Many improvement and modification have been made to the model such as enhancement on the length of interval and types of fuzzy logical relation. However, most of the improvement models represent the linguistic term in the form of discrete fuzzy sets. In this paper, fuzzy time series model with data in the form of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and natural partitioning length approach is introduced for predicting the unemployment rate. Two types of fuzzy relations are used in this study which are first order and second order fuzzy relation. This proposed model can produce the forecasted values under different degree of confidence.

  17. Parameters-related uncertainty in modeling sugar cane yield with an agro-Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Ruget, F.; Gabrielle, B.

    2012-12-01

    Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the coupling of specific crop models and large-scale generic vegetation models. They aim at accounting for the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with a particular emphasis on how crop phenology and agricultural management practice influence the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty in these models is related to the many parameters included in the models' equations. In this study, we quantify the parameter-based uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS on a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Reunion and Brazil. First, the main source of uncertainty for the output variables NPP, GPP, and sensible heat flux (SH) is determined through a screening of the main parameters of the model on a multi-site basis leading to the selection of a subset of most sensitive parameters causing most of the uncertainty. In a second step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters selected from the screening analysis at a regional scale. For this, a Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used. First, we quantify the sensitivity of the output variables to individual input parameters on a regional scale for two regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Then, we quantify the overall uncertainty in the simulation's outputs propagated from the uncertainty in the input parameters. Seven parameters are identified by the screening procedure as driving most of the uncertainty in the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS model output at all sites. These parameters control photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), root

  18. A Comparison of Three Data Models for Text Storage and Retrieval Systems: The Relational Model Revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hertzum, Morten

    1994-01-01

    : (1) the text model, also known as the inverted file approach, (2) the hypertext model, and (3) the relational model. In the design of the relational model changeability was a key consideration, but more often it is sacrificed to save development resources or improve performance. As it is not uncommon...... to see successful TSARS exist for 15-20 years and be subject to manifold changes during their lifetime, it is the relational model which is considered for use in the unified toolkit. It seems as if the relational model can be enhanced to incorporate the text model and the hypertext model...

  19. Kinetics analysis for development of a rate constant estimation model for ultrasonic degradation reaction of methylene blue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Daisuke; Honma, Chiemi; Matsumoto, Hideyuki; Takahashi, Tomoki; Kuroda, Chiaki; Otake, Katsuto; Shono, Atsushi

    2014-07-01

    Ultrasound has been used as an advanced oxidation method for wastewater treatment. Sonochemical degradation of organic compounds in aqueous solution occurs by pyrolysis and/or reaction with hydroxyl radicals. Moreover, kinetics of sonochemical degradation has been proposed. However, the effect of ultrasonic frequency on degradation rate has not been investigated. In our previous study, a simple model for estimating the apparent degradation rate of methylene blue was proposed. In this study, sonochemical degradation of methylene blue was performed at various frequencies. Apparent degradation rate constant was evaluated assuming that sonochemical degradation of methylene blue was a first-order reaction. Specifically, we focused on effects of ultrasonic frequency and power on rate constant, and the applicability of our proposed model was demonstrated. Using this approach, maximum sonochemical degradation rate was observed at 490 kHz, which agrees with a previous investigation into the effect of frequency on the sonochemical efficiency value evaluated by KI oxidation dosimetry. Degradation rate increased with ultrasonic power at every frequency. It was also observed that threshold power must be reached for the degradation reaction to progress. The initial methylene blue concentration and the apparent degradation rate constant have a relation of an inverse proportion. Our proposed model for estimating the apparent degradation rate constant using ultrasonic power and sonochemical efficiency value can apply to this study which extended the frequency and initial concentration range. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Relationship between relative cerebral blood flow, relative cerebral blood volume, and relative cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen in the preterm neonatal brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourhashemi, Mina; Kongolo, Guy; Mahmoudzadeh, Mahdi; Goudjil, Sabrina; Wallois, Fabrice

    2017-04-01

    The mechanisms responsible for coupling between relative cerebral blood flow (rCBF), relative cerebral blood volume (rCBV), and relative cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen ([Formula: see text]), an important function of the microcirculation in preterm infants, remain unclear. Identification of a causal relationship between rCBF-rCBV and [Formula: see text] in preterms may, therefore, help to elucidate the principles of cortical hemodynamics during development. We simultaneously recorded rCBF and rCBV and estimated [Formula: see text] by two independent acquisition systems: diffuse correlation spectroscopy and near-infrared spectroscopy, respectively, in 10 preterms aged between 28 and 35 weeks of gestational age. Transfer entropy was calculated in order to determine the directionality between rCBF-rCBV and [Formula: see text]. The surrogate method was applied to determine statistical significance. The results show that rCBV and [Formula: see text] have a predominant driving influence on rCBF at the resting state in the preterm neonatal brain. Statistical analysis robustly detected the correct directionality of rCBV on rCBF and [Formula: see text] on rCBF. This study helps to clarify the early organization of the rCBV-rCBF and [Formula: see text] inter-relationship in the immature cortex.

  1. The fitting parameters extraction of conversion model of the low dose rate effect in bipolar devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakerenkov, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    The Enhanced Low Dose Rate Sensitivity (ELDRS) in bipolar devices consists of in base current degradation of NPN and PNP transistors increase as the dose rate is decreased. As a result of almost 20-year studying, the some physical models of effect are developed, being described in detail. Accelerated test methods, based on these models use in standards. The conversion model of the effect, that allows to describe the inverse S-shaped excess base current dependence versus dose rate, was proposed. This paper presents the problem of conversion model fitting parameters extraction.

  2. Estimating dual deposit insurance premium rates and forecasting non-performing loans: Two new models

    OpenAIRE

    Yoshino, Naoyuki; Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad; Nili, Farhad

    2015-01-01

    Risky banks that endanger the stability of the financial system should pay higher deposit insurance premiums than healthy banks and other financial institutions that have shown good financial performance. It is necessary, therefore, to have at least a dual fair premium rate system. In this paper, we develop a model for calculating dual fair premium rates. Our definition of a fair premium rate in this paper is a rate that could cover the operational expenditures of the deposit insuring organiz...

  3. The radio continuum-star formation rate relation in WSRT sings galaxies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heesen, Volker; Brinks, Elias; Leroy, Adam K.; Heald, George; Braun, Robert; Bigiel, Frank; Beck, Rainer

    2014-01-01

    We present a study of the spatially resolved radio continuum-star formation rate (RC-SFR) relation using state-of-the-art star formation tracers in a sample of 17 THINGS galaxies. We use SFR surface density (Σ SFR ) maps created by a linear combination of GALEX far-UV (FUV) and Spitzer 24 μm maps. We use RC maps at λλ22 and 18 cm from the WSRT SINGS survey and Hα emission maps to correct for thermal RC emission. We compare azimuthally averaged radial profiles of the RC and FUV/mid-IR (MIR) based Σ SFR maps and study pixel-by-pixel correlations at fixed linear scales of 1.2 and 0.7 kpc. The ratio of the integrated SFRs from the RC emission to that of the FUV/MIR-based SF tracers is R int =0.78±0.38, consistent with the relation by Condon. We find a tight correlation between the radial profiles of the radio and FUV/MIR-based Σ SFR for the entire extent of the disk. The ratio R of the azimuthally averaged radio to FUV/MIR-based Σ SFR agrees with the integrated ratio and has only quasi-random fluctuations with galactocentric radius that are relatively small (25%). Pixel-by-pixel plots show a tight correlation in log-log diagrams of radio to FUV/MIR-based Σ SFR , with a typical standard deviation of a factor of two. Averaged over our sample we find (Σ SFR ) RC ∝(Σ SFR ) hyb 0.63±0.25 , implying that data points with high Σ SFR are relatively radio dim, whereas the reverse is true for low Σ SFR . We interpret this as a result of spectral aging of cosmic-ray electrons (CREs), which are diffusing away from the star formation sites where they are injected into the interstellar medium. This is supported by our finding that the radio spectral index is a second parameter in pixel-by-pixel plots: those data points dominated by young CREs are relatively radio dim, while those dominated by old CREs are slightly more RC bright than what would be expected from a linear extrapolation. We studied the ratio R of radio to FUV/MIR-based integrated SFR as a function of

  4. Two Back Stress Hardening Models in Rate Independent Rigid Plastic Deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Su-Jin

    In the present work, the constitutive relations based on the combination of two back stresses are developed using the Armstrong-Frederick, Phillips and Ziegler’s type hardening rules. Various evolutions of the kinematic hardening parameter can be obtained by means of a simple combination of back stress rate using the rule of mixtures. Thus, a wide range of plastic deformation behavior can be depicted depending on the dominant back stress evolution. The ultimate back stress is also determined for the present combined kinematic hardening models. Since a kinematic hardening rule is assumed in the finite deformation regime, the stress rate is co-rotated with respect to the spin of substructure obtained by incorporating the plastic spin concept. A comparison of the various co-rotational rates is also included. Assuming rigid plasticity, the continuum body consists of the elastic deformation zone and the plastic deformation zone to form a hybrid finite element formulation. Then, the plastic deformation behavior is investigated under various loading conditions with an assumption of the J2 deformation theory. The plastic deformation localization turns out to be strongly dependent on the description of back stress evolution and its associated hardening parameters. The analysis for the shear deformation with fixed boundaries is carried out to examine the deformation localization behavior and the evolution of state variables.

  5. Demographic trade-offs in a neutral model explain death-rate--abundance-rank relationship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Kui; Zhang, Da-Yong; He, Fangliang

    2009-01-01

    The neutral theory of biodiversity has been criticized for its neglect of species differences. Yet it is much less heeded that S. P. Hubbell's definition of neutrality allows species to differ in their birth and death rates as long as they have an equal per capita fitness. Using the lottery model of competition we find that fitness equalization through birth-death trade-offs can make species coexist longer than expected for demographically identical species, whereas the probability of monodominance for a species under zero-sum neutral dynamics is equal to its initial relative abundance. Furthermore, if newly arising species in a community survive preferentially they are more likely to slip through the quagmire of rareness, thus creating a strong selective bias favoring their community membership. On the other hand, high-mortality species, once having gained a footing in the community, are more likely to become abundant due to their compensatory high birth rates. This unexpected result explains why a positive association between species abundance and per capita death rate can be seen in tropical-forest communities. An explicit incorporation of interspecific trade-offs between birth and death into the neutral theory increases the theory's realism as well as its predictive power.

  6. The interplay between aerobic metabolism and antipredator performance: vigilance is related to recovery rate after exercise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaun Steven Killen

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available When attacked by a predator, fish respond with a sudden fast-start motion away from the threat. Although this anaerobically-powered swimming necessitates a recovery phase which is fuelled aerobically, little is known about links between escape performance and aerobic traits such as aerobic scope or recovery time after exhaustive exercise. Slower recovery ability or a reduced aerobic scope could make some individuals less likely to engage in a fast-start response or display reduced performance. Conversely, increased vigilance in some individuals could permit faster responses to an attack but also increase energy demand and prolong recovery after anaerobic exercise. We examined how aerobic scope and the ability to recover from anaerobic exercise relates to differences in fast-start escape performance in juvenile golden grey mullet at different acclimation temperatures. Individuals were acclimated to either 18, 22, or 26oC, then measured for standard and maximal metabolic rates and aerobic scope using intermittent flow respirometry. Anaerobic capacity and the time taken to recover after exercise were also assessed. Each fish was also filmed during a simulated attack to determine response latency, maximum speed and acceleration, and turning rate displayed during the escape response. Across temperatures, individuals with shorter response latencies during a simulated attack are those with the longest recovery time after exhaustive anaerobic exercise. Because a short response latency implies high preparedness to escape, these results highlight the trade-off between the increased vigilance and metabolic demand, which leads to longer recovery times in fast reactors. These results improve our understanding of the intrinsic physiological traits that generate inter-individual variability in escape ability, and emphasise that a full appreciation of trade-offs associated with predator avoidance and energy balance must include energetic costs associated with

  7. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shah, Chirag [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Vicini, Frank A., E-mail: fvicini@beaumont.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States)

    2011-11-15

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2-65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  8. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, Chirag; Vicini, Frank A.

    2011-01-01

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer–related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2–65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  9. Stellar Absorption Line Analysis of Local Star-forming Galaxies: The Relation between Stellar Mass, Metallicity, Dust Attenuation, and Star Formation Rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jabran Zahid, H.; Kudritzki, Rolf-Peter; Ho, I-Ting; Conroy, Charlie; Andrews, Brett

    2017-01-01

    We analyze the optical continuum of star-forming galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey by fitting stacked spectra with stellar population synthesis models to investigate the relation between stellar mass, stellar metallicity, dust attenuation, and star formation rate. We fit models calculated with star formation and chemical evolution histories that are derived empirically from multi-epoch observations of the stellar mass–star formation rate and the stellar mass–gas-phase metallicity relations, respectively. We also fit linear combinations of single-burst models with a range of metallicities and ages. Star formation and chemical evolution histories are unconstrained for these models. The stellar mass–stellar metallicity relations obtained from the two methods agree with the relation measured from individual supergiant stars in nearby galaxies. These relations are also consistent with the relation obtained from emission-line analysis of gas-phase metallicity after accounting for systematic offsets in the gas-phase metallicity. We measure dust attenuation of the stellar continuum and show that its dependence on stellar mass and star formation rate is consistent with previously reported results derived from nebular emission lines. However, stellar continuum attenuation is smaller than nebular emission line attenuation. The continuum-to-nebular attenuation ratio depends on stellar mass and is smaller in more massive galaxies. Our consistent analysis of stellar continuum and nebular emission lines paves the way for a comprehensive investigation of stellar metallicities of star-forming and quiescent galaxies.

  10. Stellar Absorption Line Analysis of Local Star-forming Galaxies: The Relation between Stellar Mass, Metallicity, Dust Attenuation, and Star Formation Rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jabran Zahid, H. [Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Kudritzki, Rolf-Peter; Ho, I-Ting [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Institute for Astronomy, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Conroy, Charlie [Department of Astronomy, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138 (United States); Andrews, Brett, E-mail: zahid@cfa.harvard.edu [PITT PACC, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pittsburgh, 3941 O’Hara Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15260 (United States)

    2017-09-20

    We analyze the optical continuum of star-forming galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey by fitting stacked spectra with stellar population synthesis models to investigate the relation between stellar mass, stellar metallicity, dust attenuation, and star formation rate. We fit models calculated with star formation and chemical evolution histories that are derived empirically from multi-epoch observations of the stellar mass–star formation rate and the stellar mass–gas-phase metallicity relations, respectively. We also fit linear combinations of single-burst models with a range of metallicities and ages. Star formation and chemical evolution histories are unconstrained for these models. The stellar mass–stellar metallicity relations obtained from the two methods agree with the relation measured from individual supergiant stars in nearby galaxies. These relations are also consistent with the relation obtained from emission-line analysis of gas-phase metallicity after accounting for systematic offsets in the gas-phase metallicity. We measure dust attenuation of the stellar continuum and show that its dependence on stellar mass and star formation rate is consistent with previously reported results derived from nebular emission lines. However, stellar continuum attenuation is smaller than nebular emission line attenuation. The continuum-to-nebular attenuation ratio depends on stellar mass and is smaller in more massive galaxies. Our consistent analysis of stellar continuum and nebular emission lines paves the way for a comprehensive investigation of stellar metallicities of star-forming and quiescent galaxies.

  11. Steady State Investigations of DPF Soot Burn Rates and DPF Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cordtz, Rasmus Lage; Ivarsson, Anders; Schramm, Jesper

    2011-01-01

    and soot mass concentrations are used as model boundary conditions. An in-house developed raw exhaust gas sampling technique is used to measure the soot concentration upstream the DPF which is also needed to find the DPF soot burn rate. The soot concentration is measured basically by filtering the soot...... characteristics are used to fit model constants of soot and filter properties. Measured DPF gas conversions and soot burn rates are used to fit model activation energies of four DPF regeneration reactions using O2 and NO2 as reactants. Modeled DPF pressure drops and soot burn rates are compared to the steady...... state DPF experiments in the temperature range between 260 and 480 °C. The model widely reproduces the experimental results. Especially the exponential soot burn rate versus temperature is accurately reproduced by the model....

  12. Coulomb friction modelling in numerical simulations of vibration and wear work rate of multispan tube bundles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antunes, J.; Axisa, F.; Beaufils, B.; Guilbaud, D.

    1990-01-01

    The working life of heat exchanger multispan tube bundles subjected to flow-induced vibration, is heavily dependent on nonlinear interaction between the loosely supported tubes and their supports. Reliable wear prediction techniques must account for a number of factors controlling impact-sliding tube response, such as tube support gap, contact stiffness, impact damping, Coulomb friction and squeeze film effect at supports. Tube fretting wear potential risk may then be adequately quantified by an equivalent wear work rate. A simple model is presented which accounts for the key aspects of dry friction and is well suited to the efficient explicit numerical integration schemes, specifically through nonlinear model superposition. Extensive parametric two-dimensional simulations, under random vibration induced by flow turbulence, are presented. Also, the effect of permanent tube-support preload, arising from cross flow drag, tube-support misalignment and thermal expansion, is investigated. Results show that frictional forces consistently reduce wear work rates, which decrease for high values of the coefficient of friction. Such reductions may be extremely important for the limiting case when preload and frictional forces are of sufficient magnitude to overcome dynamic forces, preventing tube-support relative motion. (author)

  13. Estimation of guinea pig tracheobronchial transport rates using a compartmental model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velasquez, D.J.; Morrow, P.E.

    1984-01-01

    Mucociliary clearance in the tracheobronchial tree of guinea pigs was examined using monodisperse 7.9 μm MMAD polystyrene particles. Animals were exposed for approximately 1 h by inhalation via an intratracheal tube to aerosols tagged with gold-198 and fluorescent dyes. Following exposure, animals were radioactively monitored and sacrificed at predetermined times. The lungs were removed, freeze-dried, sectioned completely, and examined with a fluorescent microscope. Measurements were made of airway diameters where particles were found. An anatomic model for guinea pig lung morphology was used to assign ranges of airway diameters to five zones, which were incorporated into a compartmental model for lung clearance. Kinetic analysis of particle distributions in the zones led to development of first-order equations describing the compartmental clearance. Rate constants obtained from the kinetic analysis were used to estimate mucociliary transport rates in specific bronchial generations, which ranged from approximately 0.001 mm/min in the distal bronchioles to approximately 8 mm/min in the trachea, and resulted in a calculated 24-h clearance time for tracheobronchial clearance in the guinea pig. No evidence for either bronchial penetration by particles or relatively prolonged bronchial retention of particles was found in this study. 22 references, 3 figures, 3 tables

  14. Forecasting Effusive Dynamics and Decompression Rates by Magmastatic Model at Open-vent Volcanoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripepe, Maurizio; Pistolesi, Marco; Coppola, Diego; Delle Donne, Dario; Genco, Riccardo; Lacanna, Giorgio; Laiolo, Marco; Marchetti, Emanuele; Ulivieri, Giacomo; Valade, Sébastien

    2017-06-20

    Effusive eruptions at open-conduit volcanoes are interpreted as reactions to a disequilibrium induced by the increase in magma supply. By comparing four of the most recent effusive eruptions at Stromboli volcano (Italy), we show how the volumes of lava discharged during each eruption are linearly correlated to the topographic positions of the effusive vents. This correlation cannot be explained by an excess of pressure within a deep magma chamber and raises questions about the actual contributions of deep magma dynamics. We derive a general model based on the discharge of a shallow reservoir and the magmastatic crustal load above the vent, to explain the linear link. In addition, we show how the drastic transition from effusive to violent explosions can be related to different decompression rates. We suggest that a gravity-driven model can shed light on similar cases of lateral effusive eruptions in other volcanic systems and can provide evidence of the roles of slow decompression rates in triggering violent paroxysmal explosive eruptions, which occasionally punctuate the effusive phases at basaltic volcanoes.

  15. Ethanol ablation of predominantly cystic thyroid nodules: Evaluation of recurrence rate and factors related to recurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suh, C.H.; Baek, J.H.; Ha, E.J.; Choi, Y.J.; Lee, J.H.; Kim, J.K.; Chung, K.-W.; Kim, T.Y.; Kim, W.B.; Shong, Y.K.

    2015-01-01

    Aim: To evaluate recurrence rate and associated risk factors for recurrence after ethanol ablation (EA) in patients with predominantly cystic thyroid nodules. Materials and methods: This observational study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Institutional Review Board and informed consent for procedures was obtained. From April 2009 to April 2013, 107 consecutive patients with predominantly cystic nodules were treated using EA. Recurrence was defined as nodules showing a residual solid portion with internal vascularity, cosmetic problems remaining, or persistent symptoms, and patients who requested additional therapy to resolve their symptomatic or cosmetic problems. Delayed recurrence was defined as treated nodules that showed no recurrent features at 1 month, but showed newly developed recurrent features during the longer follow-up period. Multivariate analysis was used for variables to demonstrate the independent factors related to volume reduction. Results: One month after EA, 18.7% of patients (20/107) showed recurrence. Among 87 patients with non-recurrence, 24.1% (21/87) showed delayed recurrence. The total recurrence rate was 38.3% (41/107). Patients with recurrence (n = 41) were treated using radiofrequency ablation (n = 28), second EA (n = 4), and refused further treatment (n = 9). These patients responded well to repeat EA and radiofrequency ablation. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the initial nodule volume (>20 ml; p < 0.036) and vascularity (grade >1; p < 0.049) were independent predictors of volume reduction at last follow-up. Conclusions: The results revealed that although EA seemed to be effective during the initial period, delayed recurrence should be considered during longer-term follow-up. The independent predictors of recurrence were initial volume (>20 ml) and vascularity. - Highlights: • Ethanol ablation showed unsatisfactory results in 18.7% of patient at one month. • Delayed recurrence was observed in 24

  16. A new constitutive model for prediction of impact rates response of polypropylene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buckley C.P.

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new constitutive model for predicting the impact rates response of polypropylene. Impact rates, as used here, refer to strain rates greater than 1000 1/s. The model is a physically based, three-dimensional constitutive model which incorporates the contributions of the amorphous, crystalline, pseudo-amorphous and entanglement networks to the constitutive response of polypropylene. The model mathematics is based on the well-known Glass-Rubber model originally developed for glassy polymers but the arguments have herein been extended to semi-crystalline polymers. In order to predict the impact rates behaviour of polypropylene, the model exploits the well-known framework of multiple processes yielding of polymers. This work argues that two dominant viscoelastic relaxation processes – the alpha- and beta-processes – can be associated with the yield responses of polypropylene observed at low-rate-dominant and impact-rates dominant loading regimes. Compression test data on polypropylene have been used to validate the model. The study has found that the model predicts quite well the experimentally observed nonlinear rate-dependent impact response of polypropylene.

  17. Evaluating the Impact of Prescription Fill Rates on Risk Stratification Model Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Hsien-Yen; Richards, Thomas M; Shermock, Kenneth M; Elder Dalpoas, Stacy; J Kan, Hong; Alexander, G Caleb; Weiner, Jonathan P; Kharrazi, Hadi

    2017-12-01

    Risk adjustment models are traditionally derived from administrative claims. Prescription fill rates-extracted by comparing electronic health record prescriptions and pharmacy claims fills-represent a novel measure of medication adherence and may improve the performance of risk adjustment models. We evaluated the impact of prescription fill rates on claims-based risk adjustment models in predicting both concurrent and prospective costs and utilization. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 43,097 primary care patients from HealthPartners network between 2011 and 2012. Diagnosis and/or pharmacy claims of 2011 were used to build 3 base models using the Johns Hopkins ACG system, in addition to demographics. Model performances were compared before and after adding 3 types of prescription fill rates: primary 0-7 days, primary 0-30 days, and overall. Overall fill rates utilized all ordered prescriptions from electronic health record while primary fill rates excluded refill orders. The overall, primary 0-7, and 0-30 days fill rates were 72.30%, 59.82%, and 67.33%. The fill rates were similar between sexes but varied across different medication classifications, whereas the youngest had the highest rate. Adding fill rates modestly improved the performance of all models in explaining medical costs (improving concurrent R by 1.15% to 2.07%), followed by total costs (0.58% to 1.43%), and pharmacy costs (0.07% to 0.65%). The impact was greater for concurrent costs compared with prospective costs. Base models without diagnosis information showed the highest improvement using prescription fill rates. Prescription fill rates can modestly enhance claims-based risk prediction models; however, population-level improvements in predicting utilization are limited.

  18. Modeling dose-rate on/over the surface of cylindrical radio-models using Monte Carlo methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao Xuefu; Ma Guoxue; Wen Fuping; Wang Zhongqi; Wang Chaohui; Zhang Jiyun; Huang Qingbo; Zhang Jiaqiu; Wang Xinxing; Wang Jun

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To determine the dose-rates on/over the surface of 10 cylindrical radio-models, which belong to the Metrology Station of Radio-Geological Survey of CNNC. Methods: The dose-rates on/over the surface of 10 cylindrical radio-models were modeled using the famous Monte Carlo code-MCNP. The dose-rates on/over the surface of 10 cylindrical radio-models were measured by a high gas pressurized ionization chamber dose-rate meter, respectively. The values of dose-rate modeled using MCNP code were compared with those obtained by authors in the present experimental measurement, and with those obtained by other workers previously. Some factors causing the discrepancy between the data obtained by authors using MCNP code and the data obtained using other methods are discussed in this paper. Results: The data of dose-rates on/over the surface of 10 cylindrical radio-models, obtained using MCNP code, were in good agreement with those obtained by other workers using the theoretical method. They were within the discrepancy of ±5% in general, and the maximum discrepancy was less than 10%. Conclusions: As if each factor needed for the Monte Carlo code is correct, the dose-rates on/over the surface of cylindrical radio-models modeled using the Monte Carlo code are correct with an uncertainty of 3%

  19. Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Box-Cox Transformation Cure Rate Model and Assessment of Model Misspecification Under Weibull Lifetimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we develop likelihood inference based on the expectation maximization algorithm for the Box-Cox transformation cure rate model assuming the lifetimes to follow a Weibull distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we also study the effect of model misspecification on the estimate of cure rate. Finally, we analyze a well-known data on melanoma with the model and the inferential method developed here.

  20. Modeling whole-tree carbon assimilation rate using observed transpiration rates and needle sugar carbon isotope ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jia; Moore, David J P; Riveros-Iregui, Diego A; Burns, Sean P; Monson, Russell K

    2010-03-01

    *Understanding controls over plant-atmosphere CO(2) exchange is important for quantifying carbon budgets across a range of spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we used a simple approach to estimate whole-tree CO(2) assimilation rate (A(Tree)) in a subalpine forest ecosystem. *We analysed the carbon isotope ratio (delta(13)C) of extracted needle sugars and combined it with the daytime leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit to estimate tree water-use efficiency (WUE). The estimated WUE was then combined with observations of tree transpiration rate (E) using sap flow techniques to estimate A(Tree). Estimates of A(Tree) for the three dominant tree species in the forest were combined with species distribution and tree size to estimate and gross primary productivity (GPP) using an ecosystem process model. *A sensitivity analysis showed that estimates of A(Tree) were more sensitive to dynamics in E than delta(13)C. At the ecosystem scale, the abundance of lodgepole pine trees influenced seasonal dynamics in GPP considerably more than Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir because of its greater sensitivity of E to seasonal climate variation. *The results provide the framework for a nondestructive method for estimating whole-tree carbon assimilation rate and ecosystem GPP over daily-to weekly time scales.