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Sample records for relative paleointensity estimation

  1. Correlation and Stacking of Relative Paleointensity and Oxygen Isotope Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lurcock, P. C.; Channell, J. E.; Lee, D.

    2012-12-01

    The transformation of a depth-series into a time-series is routinely implemented in the geological sciences. This transformation often involves correlation of a depth-series to an astronomically calibrated time-series. Eyeball tie-points with linear interpolation are still regularly used, although these have the disadvantages of being non-repeatable and not based on firm correlation criteria. Two automated correlation methods are compared: the simulated annealing algorithm (Huybers and Wunsch, 2004) and the Match protocol (Lisiecki and Lisiecki, 2002). Simulated annealing seeks to minimize energy (cross-correlation) as "temperature" is slowly decreased. The Match protocol divides records into intervals, applies penalty functions that constrain accumulation rates, and minimizes the sum of the squares of the differences between two series while maintaining the data sequence in each series. Paired relative paleointensity (RPI) and oxygen isotope records, such as those from IODP Site U1308 and/or reference stacks such as LR04 and PISO, are warped using known warping functions, and then the un-warped and warped time-series are correlated to evaluate the efficiency of the correlation methods. Correlations are performed in tandem to simultaneously optimize RPI and oxygen isotope data. Noise spectra are introduced at differing levels to determine correlation efficiency as noise levels change. A third potential method, known as dynamic time warping, involves minimizing the sum of distances between correlated point pairs across the whole series. A "cost matrix" between the two series is analyzed to find a least-cost path through the matrix. This least-cost path is used to nonlinearly map the time/depth of one record onto the depth/time of another. Dynamic time warping can be expanded to more than two dimensions and used to stack multiple time-series. This procedure can improve on arithmetic stacks, which often lose coherent high-frequency content during the stacking process.

  2. Relative Paleointensity of the Geomagnetic Field 12-20 kyr. From Sediment Cores, Lake Moreno (Patagonia, Argentina)

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    Gogorza, C. S.; Irurzun, M. A.; Chaparro, M. A.; Lirio, J. M.; Nunez, H.; Sinito, A. M.

    2007-05-01

    Four cores labeled Lmor1, Lmor2, Lmor3, Lmor98-1, Lmor98-2 from the bottom sediments of Lake Moreno (south-western Argentina) have been used to estimate regional geomagnetic paleointensity. Lake Moreno is on the east side of the Andean Cordillera Patagónica; it is located in the Llao Llao area, San Carlos de Bariloche, Argentina (41° S, 71° 30'W). The following measurements were performed: Natural Remanent Magnetization (NRM), magnetic susceptibility at low and high frequency (specific, X and volumetric, k), Isothermal Remanent Magnetization (IRM) reaching the Saturation Isothermal Remanent Magnetization (SIRM), Back Field, Anhysteric Remanent Magnetization with a direct field of 0.1mT and an alternating field between 2.5 and 100mT (ARM100mT). Associated parameters were calculated: S-ratio, Remanent Coercitive Field (BCR, anhysteric volumetric susceptibility (kanh), SIRM/k, ARM100mT/k, and SIRM/ ARM100mT. The rock magnetic studies indicate that the magnetic mineralogy of the clay-rich sediments is dominated by pseudo- single domain magnetite in a narrow range of grain size (between 1 and 4μm) and concentration (between 0.05 and 0.1%), thereby meeting established criteria for relative paleointensity studies. The remanent magnetization at 20mT (NRM20mT) has been normalized using the anhysteric remanent magnetization at 20mT (ARM20mT), the saturation of the isothermal remanent magnetization at 20mT (SIRM20mT) and k. A comparison of these results with relative paleointensity records obtained in previous works, Lake Escondido (Gogorza et al., 2004) and Lake El Trébol (Gogorza et al., 2006) allows obtaining detailed information about the disagreement observed in the period 12-20 kyr between both records. References Gogorza, C.S.G., J.M. Lirio, H. Nunez, M.A.E. Chaparro, H.R. Bertorello, A.M. Sinito. Paleointensity studies on Holocene-Pleistocene sediments from Lake Escondido, Argentina, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 145: 219-238, 2004. Gogorza, C.S.G., M.A. Irurzun

  3. Paleointensity in ignimbrites and other volcaniclastic flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, J. A.; Gee, J. S.; Jackson, M. J.

    2011-12-01

    Ash flow tuffs (ignimbrites) are common worldwide, frequently contain fine-grained magnetite hosted in the glassy matrix, and often have high-quality 40Ar/39Ar ages. This makes them attractive candidates for paleointensity studies, potentially allowing for a substantial increase in the number of well-dated paleointensity estimates. However, the timing and nature of remanence acquisition in ignimbrites are not sufficiently understood to allow confident interpretation of paleointensity data from ash flows. The remanence acquisition may be a complex function of mineralogy and thermal history. Emplacement conditions and post-emplacement processes vary considerably between and within tuffs and may potentially affect the ability to recover ancient field intensity information. To better understand the relevant magnetic recording assemblage(s) and remanence acquisition processes we have collected samples from two well-documented historical ignimbrites, the 1980 ash flows at Mt. St. Helens (MSH), Washington, and the 1912 flows from Mt. Katmai in the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes (VTTS), Alaska. Data from these relatively small, poorly- to non-welded historical flows are compared to the more extensive and more densely welded 0.76 Ma Bishop Tuff. This sample set enables us to better understand the geologic processes that destroy or preserve paleointensity information so that samples from ancient tuffs may be selected with care. Thellier-type paleointensity experiments carried out on pumice blocks sampled from the MSH flows resulted in a paleointensity of 55.8 μT +/- 0.8 (1 standard error). This compares favorably with the actual value of 56.0 μT. Excluded specimens of poor technical quality were dominantly from sites that were either emplaced at low temperature (600°C) temperatures does not corrupt the paleointensity signal, and additional data will be presented which explores this more fully.

  4. Reading the muddy compass : relative paleointensities of the earth's magnetic field derived from deep-sea sediments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, Y.S.

    1998-01-01

    This thesis has been structured in three parts: Part I discusses three methodological studies, Part II addresses the saw-toothed pattern observed in some paleointensity records spanning the last 4 million years, and Part III examines geomagnetic paleointensity stacks.

  5. Variations of the Geomagnetic Field During the Holocene-Pleistocene: Relative Paleointensity Records From South-Western Argentina

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    Gogorza, C. S.

    2008-05-01

    I present a review of the research carried out by the Group of Geomagnetism at Universidad Nacional del Centro (Argentina) on paleointensity records from bottom sediments from three lakes: Escondido (Gogorza et al., 2004), Moreno (Gogorza et al., 2006) and El Trébol (Gogorza et al., 2007; Irurzun et al., 2008) (South-Western Argentina, 41° S, 71° 30'W). Based on these studies, we construct a first relative (RPI) stack for South-Western Argentina covering the last 21,000 14C years BP. The degree of down-core homogeneity of magnetic mineral content as well as magnetic mineral concentration and grain sizes vary between all lakes and are quantified by high-resolution rock magnetic measurements. Rock magnetic studies suggest that the main carriers of magnetization are ferrimagnetic minerals, predominantly pseudo-single domain magnetite The remanent magnetization at 20 mT (NRM20mT) was normalized using the anhysteric remanent magnetization at 20mT (ARM20mT), the saturation of the isothermal remanent at 20 mT (SIRM20mT) and the low field magnetic susceptibility {k}. Coherence function analysis indicates that the normalised records are free of environmental influences. Our paleointensity (NRM20mT/ ARM20mT) versus age curve shows a good agreement with published records from other parts of the world suggesting that, in suitable sediments, paleointensity of the geomagnetic field can give a globally coherent, dominantly dipolar signal. References Gogorza, C.S.G., Irurzun, M.A., Chaparro, M.A.E., Lirio, J.M., Nuñez, H., Bercoff, P.G., Sinito, A.M. Relative Paleointensity of the Geomagnetic Field over the last 21,000 years bp from Sediment Cores, Lake El Trébol, (Patagonia, Argentina). Earth, Planets and Space. V58(10), 1323-1332. 2006. Gogorza, C.S.G., Sinito, A.M., Lirio, J.M., Nuñez, H., Chaparro, M.A.E., Bertorello, H.R. Paleointensity Studies on Holocene-Pleistocene Sediments from Lake Escondido, Argentina. Physical of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Elsevier, ISSN

  6. Biogenic magnetite, detrital hematite, and relative paleointensity in Quaternary sediments from the Southwest Iberian Margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Channell, J. E. T.; Hodell, D. A.; Margari, V.; Skinner, L. C.; Tzedakis, P. C.; Kesler, M. S.

    2013-08-01

    Magnetic properties of late Quaternary sediments on the SW Iberian Margin are dominated by bacterial magnetite, observed by transmission electron microscopy (TEM), with contributions from detrital titanomagnetite and hematite. Reactive hematite, together with low organic matter concentrations and the lack of sulfate reduction, lead to dissimilatory iron reduction and availability of Fe(II) for abundant magnetotactic bacteria. Magnetite grain-size proxies (κARM/κ and ARM/IRM) and S-ratios (sensitive to hematite) vary on stadial/interstadial timescales, contain orbital power, and mimic planktic δ18O. The detrital/biogenic magnetite ratio and hematite concentration are greater during stadials and glacial isotopic stages, reflecting increased detrital (magnetite) input during times of lowered sea level, coinciding with atmospheric conditions favoring hematitic dust supply. Magnetic susceptibility, on the other hand, has a very different response being sensitive to coarse detrital multidomain (MD) magnetite associated with ice-rafted debris (IRD). High susceptibility and/or magnetic grain-size coarsening, mark Heinrich stadials (HS), particularly HS2, HS3, HS4, HS5, HS6 and HS7, as well as older Heinrich-like detrital layers, indicating the sensitivity of this region to fluctuations in the position of the polar front. Relative paleointensity (RPI) records have well-constrained age models based on planktic δ18O correlation to ice-core chronologies, however, they differ from reference records (e.g. PISO) particularly in the vicinity of glacial maxima, mainly due to inefficient normalization of RPI records in intervals of enhanced hematite input.

  7. 10Be and relative paleointensity signals across the last geomagnetic reversal

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    Savranskaia, T.; Valet, J. P.; Bassinot, F. C.; Meynadier, L.; Simon, Q.; Bourles, D. L.; Thouveny, N.; Thevarasan, A.; Villedieu, A.; Choy, S.; Gacem, L.

    2017-12-01

    Two techniques can be used to determine the evolution of the geomagnetic field intensity in the past. The first one relies on records of relative paleointensity (RPI) in sediments. Although they remain relatively sparse detailed records of 10Be production (expressed in terms of 10Be/9Be) provide an alternative approach. However integration of 10Be within the sediment is not better understood than the magnetization process, and therefore paleofield studies should greatly benefit from the integration of both datasets. In order to achieve this goal, it is crucial to compare and analyze the signals over a common time period. We selected five sedimentary cores from the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and focused on the last reversal which is characterized by the largest intensity changes. Since 10Be is homogenized in the atmosphere, the same amount of 10Be should be recorded everywhere. We found different amounts of 10Be at each site during the last reversal which appear roughly correlated with accumulation rate. In contrast the 10Be amplitude is similar at all locations while higher amplitude signals are expected for low deposition rates. Taking advantage of the distribution of tektites layers, the beryllium signals have been deconvolved, but this procedure did not strikingly change the results. Despite atmospheric mixing we wonder whether 10Be production was slightly different at each location in presence of a multipolar transitional field. The comparison between the 10Be and RPI signals reveals large similarities but also puzzling differences. In particular, the relationship between the two signals is not the same during periods of stable polarity as during the transitional interval. A precursor with low intensity is present in several RPI records but not clearly marked on the beryllium records. We also addressed the question of a possible offset between the two signals that would be indicative of a delayed magnetization acquisition. After correlating and

  8. Absolute Paleointensity Techniques: Developments in the Last 10 Years (Invited)

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    Bowles, J. A.; Brown, M. C.

    2009-12-01

    The ability to determine variations in absolute intensity of the Earth’s paleomagnetic field has greatly enhanced our understanding of geodynamo processes, including secular variation and field reversals. Igneous rocks and baked clay artifacts that carry a thermal remanence (TRM) have allowed us to study field variations over timescales ranging from decades to billions of years. All absolute paleointensity techniques are fundamentally based on repeating the natural process by which the sample acquired its magnetization, i.e. a laboratory TRM is acquired in a controlled field, and the ratio of the natural TRM to that acquired in the laboratory is directly proportional to the ancient field. Techniques for recovering paleointensity have evolved since the 1930s from relatively unsophisticated (but revolutionary for their time) single step remagnetizations to the various complicated, multi-step procedures in use today. These procedures can be broadly grouped into two categories: 1) “Thellier-type” experiments that step-wise heat samples at a series of temperatures up to the maximum unblocking temperature of the sample, progressively removing the natural remanence (NRM) and acquiring a laboratory-induced TRM; and 2) “Shaw-type” experiments that combine alternating field demagnetization of the NRM and laboratory TRM with a single heating to a temperature above the sample’s Curie temperature, acquiring a total TRM in one step. Many modifications to these techniques have been developed over the years with the goal of identifying and/or accommodating non-ideal behavior, such as alteration and multi-domain (MD) remanence, which may lead to inaccurate paleofield estimates. From a technological standpoint, perhaps the most significant development in the last decade is the use of microwave (de)magnetization in both Thellier-type and Shaw-type experiments. By using microwaves to directly generate spin waves within the magnetic grains (rather than using phonons

  9. Rock Magnetic Properties, Paleosecular Variation Record and Relative Paleointensity Stack between 11 and 21 14C kyr B.P. From Sediment Cores, Lake Moreno (Argentina)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gogorza, C. S.; Irurzun, M. A.; Lirio, J. M.; Nunez, H.; Chaparro, M. A.; Sinito, A. M.

    2008-05-01

    We conducted a detailed study of natural remanence and rock magnetic properties on sediments cores from lake Moreno (South-Western Argentina). Based on these measurements, we constructed a paleosecular variation (PSV) record (Irurzun et al., 2008) and a relative paleointensity stack for the period 11-21 14C. The Declination and Inclination logs of the characteristic remanent magnetization for the cores as function of shortened depth are obtained. The data from all cores were combined to obtain a composite record using the Fisher method. Comparison between stacked inclination and declination records of lake Moreno and results obtained in previous works, lake Escondido (Gogorza et al., 1999; Gogorza et al., 2002) and lake El Trébol (Irurzun et al., 2008), shows good agreement. This agreement made possible to transform the stacked curves into time series that spans the interval 11 and 21 14C kyr B.P. Rock magnetic properties of the sediments cores showed uniform magnetic mineralogy and grain size, suggesting that they were suitable for relative paleointensity studies. The remanent magnetization at 20mT (NRM20mT) was normalized using the anhysteric remanent magnetization at 20mT (ARM20mT), the saturation of the isothermal remanent magnetization at 20mT (SIRM20mT) and the low field magnetic susceptibility {k}. Coherence analysis showed that the normalized records were not affected by local environmental conditions. The recorded pseudo-Thellier paleointensity was compared with records obtained from conventional normalizing methods. Comparing the paleointensity curves with others obtained previously in other lakes in the area has allowed us to reach reliable conclusions about centennial-scale features. References: Gogorza, C.S.G., Sinito, A.M., Di Tommaso, I., Vilas, J.F., Creer, K., Núnez, H. Holocene Geomagnetic Secular Variations Recorded by Sediments from Escondido lake (South Argentina). Earth, Planets and Space, V51(2), 93- 106. 1999. Gogorza, C.S.G., Sinito, A

  10. A Two Million Year Equatorial Paleogeomagnetic and Relative Paleointensity Record from IODP Site U1489 in the West Pacific Warm Pool: Towards an Improved Tuning Target.

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    Hatfield, R. G.; Stoner, J. S.; Kumagai, Y.

    2017-12-01

    International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 363 drilled nine sites in the West Pacific Warm Pool in October-December 2016. IODP Site U1489 (02°07.19'N, 141°01.67'E, 3421 meters water depth) located on the Eauripik Rise was drilled to a depth of 270 meters below sea floor using the advanced piston corer. Shipboard data revealed the upper 112 meters composite depth (mcd) consist of clay-rich nanno fossil ooze and contain all twenty-two geomagnetic reversals over the last 5 million years (Myrs). Shipboard generated rock magnetic data and post-cruise hysteresis data suggest the paleomagnetic record is carried by fine-grained pseudo-single domain magnetite. A shipboard estimate of relative paleointensity (RPI) was generated by normalizing the natural remanent magnetization (NRM) intensity after 15mT peak alternating field (AF) demagnetization of the shipboard half core measurement by whole round magnetic susceptibility (MS). Coherence of the NRM15mT/MS record with existing RPI stacks over the last 2 Myrs highlighted the potential for development of a RPI record back to the earliest Pliocene. Here we present the first u-channel measurements of the upper 40 mcd from Site U1489 spanning the last 2 Myrs. The NRM was measured at 1 cm intervals after stepwise AF demagnetization in peak fields of 15-100mT. Component inclination plots around that predicted by a geocentric axial dipole field and maximum angular deviation values are so far generally < 3° implying the paleomagnetic record is well resolved at Site U1489. Measurements of MS and anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM) characterize the environmental variability and provide a normalizer for the NRM to generate an estimate of RPI. The chronology is iteratively developed, initially based on polarity reversals boundaries, then by tuning MS to astronomical precession. We compare our RPI estimates to PISO-1500 and NARPI-2200 whose chronologies are based upon δ18O of benthic foraminifera to assess the

  11. Magnetic constraints on early lunar evolution revisited: Limits on accuracy imposed by methods of paleointensity measurements

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    Banerjee, S. K.

    1984-01-01

    It is impossible to carry out conventional paleointensity experiments requiring repeated heating and cooling to 770 C without chemical, physical or microstructural changes on lunar samples. Non-thermal methods of paleointensity determination have been sought: the two anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM) methods, and the saturation isothermal remanent magnetization (IRMS) method. Experimental errors inherent in these alternative approaches have been investigated to estimate the accuracy limits on the calculated paleointensities. Results are indicated in this report.

  12. Chemical magnetization when determining Thellier paleointensity experiments in oceanic basalts

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    Tselebrovskiy, Alexey; Maksimochkin, Valery

    2017-04-01

    The natural remanent magnetization (NRM) of oceanic basalts selected in the rift zones of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) and the Red Sea has been explored. Laboratory simulation shows that the thermoremanent magnetization and chemical remanent magnetization (CRM) in oceanic basalts may be separated by using Tellier-Coe experiment. It was found that the rate of CRM destruction is about four times lower than the rate of the partial thermoremanent magnetization formation in Thellier cycles. The blocking temperatures spectrum of chemical component shifted toward higher temperatures in comparison with the spectrum of primary thermoremanent magnetization. It was revealed that the contribution of the chemical components in the NRM increases with the age of oceanic basalts determined with the analysis of the anomalous geomagnetic field (AGF) and spreading theory. CRM is less than 10% at the basalts aged 0.2 million years, less than 50% at basalts aged 0.35 million years, from 60 to 80% at basalts aged 1 million years [1]. Geomagnetic field paleointensity (Hpl) has been determined through the remanent magnetization of basalt samples of different ages related to Brunhes, Matuyama and Gauss periods of the geomagnetic field polarity. The value of the Hpl determined by basalts of the southern segment of MAR is ranged from 17.5 to 42.5 A/m, by the Reykjanes Ridge basalts — from 20.3 to 44 A/m, by the Bouvet Ridge basalts — from 21.7 to 34.1 A/m. VADM values calculated from these data are in good agreement with the international paleointensity database [2] and PISO-1500 model [3]. Literature 1. Maksimochkin V., Tselebrovskiy A., (2015) The influence of the chemical magnetization of oceanic basalts on determining the geomagnetic field paleointensity by the thellier method, moscow university physics bulletin, 70(6):566-576, 2. Perrin, M., E. Schnepp, and V. Shcherbakov (1998), Update of the paleointensity database, Eos Trans. AGU, 79, 198. 3. Channell JET, Xuan C, Hodell DA (2009

  13. The Multispecimen Method for Absolute Paleointensity Determination

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    Dekkers, M. J.; de Groot, L. V.; Monster, M.

    2015-12-01

    Paleointensity methods have seen a large improvement in the 21th century. This included optimizing classic Thellier-style protocols along with establishing stringent sets of quality criteria, developing microwave excitation as an alternative to thermal treatment, selecting sample material that contains the most suitable remanence carriers (i.e. single domain magnetic particles), calibrating non-heating paleointensity methods, and the introduction of the multispecimen paleointensity (MSP) protocol. An MSP experiment is carried out at one specific temperature selected to avoid thermochemical alteration; a series of specimens is heated and cooled in various applied furnace fields oriented parallel to the specimen's NRM. The furnace field value at which no change in NRM occurs is the paleofield. While the rationale of the MSP approach is surprisingly straightforward, some of the original claims (Dekkers and Böhnel, 2006) are by now shown to be untenable. This pertains to the claimed domain state independence in the original MSP method, although the Fabian and Leonhardt (2010) extended protocol largely corrects for domain state effects. Here we describe the optimal workflow for MSP experiments derived from our collection of historic flows from four volcanic edifices: Mt. Etna, Hawaii, the Canary Islands, and the Azores. By comparing the experimental outcome derived from historic flows with known paleointensities we found that technically acceptable experiments may yield overestimates, correct determinations, as well as underestimates of the paleofield. The so-called "ARM test" (de Groot et al., 2012) can distinguish between those three options. Based on TRM and ARM being analogues, this test compares ARM acquisition curves of sister samples before and after heating to the MSP experiment temperature. Simulated paleointensity experiments following this workflow consistently deliver the correct answer (Monster et al., submitted).

  14. Magnetic paleointensities in fault pseudotachylytes and implications for earthquake lightnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leibovitz, Natalie Ruth

    Fault pseudotachylytes commonly form by frictional melting due to seismic slip. These fine-grained clastic rocks result from melt quenching and may show a high concentration of fine ferromagnetic grains. These grains are potentially excellent recorders of the rock natural remanent magnetization (NRM). The magnetization processes of fault pseudotachylytes are complex and may include the following: i) near coseismic thermal remanent magnetization (TRM) acquired upon cooling of the melt; ii) coseismic lightning induced remanent magnetization (LIRM) caused by earthquake lightnings (EQL); iii) post seismic chemical remanent magnetization (CRM) related to both devitrification and alteration. Deciphering these magnetization components is crucial to the interpretation of paleointensities to see if coseismic phenomena such as EQL's were recorded within these rocks. Hence the paleomagnetic record of fault pseudotachylytes provides an independent set of new constraints on coseismic events. Fault pseudotachylytes from the Santa Rosa Mountains, California host a magnetic assemblage dominated by stoichiometric magnetite, formed from the breakdown of ferromagnesian silicates and melt oxidation at high temperature. Magnetite grain size in these pseudotachylytes compares to that of magnetite formed in friction experiments. Paleomagnetic data on these 59 Ma-old fault rocks reveal not only anomalous magnetization directions, inconsistent with the coseismic geomagnetic field, but also anomalously high magnetization intensities. Here we discuss results of rock magnetism and paleointensity experiments designed to quantify the intensity of coseismic magnetizing fields. The REM' paleointensity method, previously tested on meteorites, is particularly well suited to investigate NRMs resulting from non-conventional and multiple magnetization processes. Overall findings indicate an isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM) in some, but not all, specimens taken from four different Santa Rosa

  15. Saw-toothed pattern of sedimentary paleointensity records explained by cumulative viscous remanence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, Yvo S.; Tauxe, Lisa

    1996-01-01

    The relative paleointensity of the earth's magnetic field from ODP Site 851 has been characterized by progressive decay w x towards polarity reversals, followed by sharp recovery of pre-reversal values 1 . We resampled the Gilbert-Gaub reversal boundary of this deep-sea core, and show that during

  16. Climatic influence in NRM and 10 Be-derived geomagnetic paleointensity data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    1999-01-01

    One can determine geomagnetic paleointensities from natural remanent magnetizations (NRM) and by inverting production rates of cosmogenic isotopes such as 10 Be and 14 C. Recently, two independently derived 200-kyr stacks [Y. Guyodo, J.-P. Valet, Relative variations in geomagnetic intensity from

  17. Testing the Multispecimen Absolute Paleointensity Method with Archaeological Baked Clays and Bricks: New Data for Central Europe

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    Schnepp, Elisabeth; Leonhardt, Roman

    2014-05-01

    The domain-state corrected multiple-specimen paleointensity determination technique (MSP-DSC, Fabian & Leonhardt, EPSL 297, 84, 2010) has been tested for archaeological baked clays and bricks. The following procedure was applied: (1) Exclusion of secondary overprints using alternating field (AF) or thermal demagnetization and assignment of characteristic remanent magnetization (ChRM) direction. (2) Determination of magneto mineralogical alteration using anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM) or temperature dependence of susceptibility. (3) Measurement of ARM anisotropy tensor, calculation of the ancient magnetic field direction. (4) Sister specimens were subjected to the MSP-DSC technique aligned (anti-)parallel to the ancient magnetic field direction. (5) Several checks were applied in order to exclude data points from further evaluation: (a) The accuracy of orientation (< 10°), (b) absence of secondary components (< 10°), (c) use of a considerable NRM fraction (20 to 80%), (d) weak alteration (smaller than for domain state change) and finally (e) domain state correction was applied. Bricks and baked clays from archaeological sites with ages between 645 BC and 2003 AD have been subjected to MSP-DSC absolute paleointensity (PI) determination. Aims of study are to check precision and reliability of the method. The obtained PI values are compared with direct field observation, the IGRF, the GUFM1 or Thellier results. The Thellier experiments often show curved lines and pTRM checks fail for higher temperatures. Nevertheless in the low temperature range straight lines have been obtained but they provide scattered paleointensity values. Mean paleointensites have relative errors often exceeding 10%, which are not considered as high quality PI estimates. MSP-DSC experiments for the structures older than 300 years are still under progress. The paleointensities obtained from the MSP-DSC experiments for the young materials (after 1700 AD) have small relative errors of a

  18. Tsunakawa-Shaw method - an absolute paleointensity technique using alternating field demagnetization

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    Yamamoto, Y.; Mochizuki, N.; Shibuya, H.; Tsunakawa, H.

    2015-12-01

    Among geologic materials volcanic rocks have been typically used to deduce an absolute paleointensity. In the last decade, however, there seems a becoming consensus that volcanic rocks are not so ideal materials due to such as magnetic grains other than non-interacting single domain particles. One approach to obtain a good paleointensity estimate from the rocks is to reduce and correct the non-ideality, suppress alterations in laboratory and screen out suspicious results. We have been working on a development and an application of the Tsunakawa-Shaw method, which has been previously called the LTD-DHT Shaw method. This method is an AF(alternating field)-based technique and thus a paleointensity is estimated using coercivity spectra. To reduce the non-ideality, all remanences undergo low-temperature demagnetization (LTD) before any AF demagnetizations to remove multi-domain like component. To correct the non-ideality, anhysteretic remanent magnetizations (ARMs) are imparted with their directions parallel to natural remanent magnetizations and laboratory-imparted thermoremanent magnetizations (TRMs) and measured before and after laboratory heating. These ARMs are used to correct remanence anisotropies, possible interaction effects originated from the non-ideal grains and TRM changes caused by laboratory alterations. TRMs are imparted by heating specimens above their Curie temperatures and then cooling to room temperature at once to simulate nature conditions. These cycles are done in vacuum to suppress alterations in laboratory. Obtained results are judged by selection criteria, including a check for validity of the ARM corrections.It has been demonstrated that successful paleointensities are obtained from historical lavas in Japan and Hawaii, and from baked clay samples from a reconstructed ancient kiln, with the flow-mean precision of 5-10%. In case of old volcanic rocks, however, the method does not necessarily seem to be perfect. We will summarize these points in

  19. Absolute paleointensity of the Earth's magnetic field during Jurassic: case study of La Negra Formation (northern Chile)

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    Morales, Juan; Goguitchaichvili, Avto; Alva-Valdivia, Luis M.; Urrutia-Fucugauchi, Jaime

    2003-08-01

    We carried out a detailed rock-magnetic and paleointensity study of the ˜187-Ma volcanic succession from northern Chile. A total of 32 consecutive lava flows (about 280 oriented standard paleomagnetic cores) were collected at the Tocopilla locality. Only 26 samples with apparently preserved primary magnetic mineralogy and without secondary magnetization components were pre-selected for Thellier paleointensity determination. Eleven samples coming from four lava flows yielded reliable paleointensity estimates. The flow-mean virtual dipole moments range from 3.7±0.9 to 7.1±0.5 (10 22 A m 2). This corresponds to a mean value of (5.0±1.8)×10 22 A m 2, which is in reasonably good agreement with other comparable quality paleointensity determinations from the Middle Jurassic. Given the large dispersion and the very poor distribution of reliable absolute intensity data, it is hard to draw any firm conclusions regarding the time evolution of the geomagnetic field. To cite this article: J. Morales et al., C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).

  20. Absolute paleointensities during a mid Miocene reversal of the Earth's magnetic field recorded on Gran Canaria (Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonhardt, R.; Soffel, H. C.

    2001-12-01

    An extensive paleointensity study was carried out on an approximately 14.1 Myr old reverse to normal transition of the geomagnetic field. One hundred eighty-eight samples from a mid Miocene volcanic sequence on Gran Canaria (Canary Islands) were subjected to Thellier-type paleointensity determinations. Samples for paleointensity experiments were selected on the basis of high Curie temperatures, low viscosity indexes, and limited variations of the remanence-carrying magnetic content during thermal treatment. A modified Thellier technique, which facilitates the recognition of MD tails and the formation of new magnetic remanences with higher blocking temperatures than the actual heating step, was used on the majority of the samples. The application of this technique proved to be very successful and we obtained reliable paleointensity results for 35% of the 87 sampled lava flows. In general, the intensity of the reversed and normal magnetized parts of the sequence, before and after the transition, is lower than the field intensity expected for the mid Miocene. This observation is very likely related to a long term reduction of the field close to transitions. The mean field intensity after the reversal ( ~ 17 μ T) is about twice the value of that recorded in the rocks prior to the reversal. This observation points at a fast recovery of the dipolar structure of the field after this reversal. Very low paleointensities with values < 5 μ T were obtained during an excursion, preceding the actual transition, and also close to significant changes of the local field directions during the reversal. This is interpreted as non-dipolar components becoming dominant for short periods and provoking a rapid change of local field directions. During the transition 15 successive lava flows recorded similar local field directions corresponding to a cluster of virtual geomagnetic poles close to South America. Chronologically, within this cluster the paleointensity increases from about 9

  1. Paleointensity Behavior and Intervals Between Geomagnetic Reversals in the Last 167 Ma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurazhkovskii, A. Yu.; Kurazhkovskaya, N. A.; Klain, B. I.

    2018-01-01

    The results of comparative analysis of the behavior of paleointensity and polarity (intervals between reversals) of the geomagnetic field for the last 167 Ma are presented. Similarities and differences in the behavior of these characteristics of the geomagnetic field are discussed. It is shown that bursts of paleointensity and long intervals between reversals occurred at high mean values of paleointensity in the Cretaceous and Paleogene. However, there are differences between the paleointensity behavior and the reversal regime: (1) the characteristic times of paleointensity variations are less than the characteristic times of the frequency of geomagnetic reversals, (2) the achievement of maximum values of paleointensity at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary and the termination of paleointensity bursts after the boundary of 45-40 Ma are not marked by explicit features in the geomagnetic polarity behavior.

  2. A comparison of Thellier-type and multispecimen paleointensity determinations on Pleistocene and historical lava flows from Lanzarote (Canary Islands, Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo-Rathert, Manuel; Morales-Contreras, Juan; Carrancho, Ángel; Goguitchaichvili, Avto

    2016-09-01

    Sixteen Miocene, Pleistocene, and historic lava flows have been sampled in Lanzarote (Canary Islands) for paleointensity analysis with both the Coe and multispecimen methods. Besides obtaining new data, the main goal of the study was the comparison of paleointensity results determined with two different techniques. Characteristic Remanent Magnetization (ChRM) directions were obtained in 15 flows, and 12 were chosen for paleointensity determination. In Thellier-type experiments, a selection of reliable paleointensity determinations (43 of 78 studied samples) was performed using sets of criteria of different stringency, trying to relate the quality of results to the strictness of the chosen criteria. Uncorrected and fraction and domain-state corrected multispecimen paleointensity results were obtained in all flows. Results with the Coe method on historical flows either agree with the expected values or show moderately lower ones, but multispecimen determinations display a large deviation from the expected result in one case. No relation can be detected between correct or anomalous results and paleointensity determination quality or rock-magnetic properties. However, results on historical flows suggest that agreement between both methods could be a good indicator of correct determinations. Comparison of results obtained with both methods on seven Pleistocene flows yields an excellent agreement in four and disagreements in three cases. Pleistocene determinations were only accepted if either results from both methods agreed or a result was based on a sufficiently large number (n > 4) of individual Thellier-type determinations. In most Pleistocene flows, a VADM around 5 × 1022 Am2 was observed, although two flows displayed higher values around 9 × 1022 Am2.

  3. Paleointensities on 8 ka obsidian from Mayor Island, New Zealand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ferk

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The 8 ka BP (6050 BCE pantelleritic obsidian flow on Mayor Island, Bay of Plenty, New Zealand, has been investigated using 30 samples from two sites. Due to a very high paramagnetic/ferromagnetic ratio, it was not possible to determine the remanence carriers. This is despite the fact that the samples were studied intensively at low, room, and high temperatures. We infer that a stable remanence within the samples is carried by single- or close to single-domain particles. Experiments to determine the anisotropy of thermoremanence tensor and the dependency on cooling rate were hampered due to alteration resulting from the repeated heating of the samples to temperatures just below the glass transition. Nonetheless, a well-defined mean paleointensity of 57.0 ± 1.0 μT, based on individual high quality paleointensity determinations, was obtained. This field value compares very well to a paleointensity of 58.1 ± 2.9 μT, which Tanaka et al. (2009 obtained for 5500 BCE at a site 100 km distant. Agreement with geomagnetic field models, however, is poor. Thus, gathering more high-quality paleointensity data for the Pacific region and for the southern hemisphere in general to better constrain global field models is very important.

  4. New absolute paleointensity determinations for the Permian-Triassic boundary from the Kuznetsk Trap Basalts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulakov, E.; Metelkin, D. V.; Kazansky, A.

    2015-12-01

    We report the results of a pilot absolute paleointensity study of the ~250 Ma basalts of Kuznetsk traps (Kuznetsk Basin, Altai-Sayan folded area). Studied samples are characterized by a reversed polarity of natural remanent magnetization that corresponds to the lower part of Siberian Trap basalts sequence. Geochemical similarity of Kuznets basalts with those from Norilsk region supports this interpretation. Primary origin of thermal remanence in our sample is confirmed by a positive backed contact test. Rock magnetic analyses indicate that the ChRM is carried by single-domain titanomagnetite. The Coe-version of the Thellier-Therllier double-heating method was utilized for the paleointensity determinations. In contrast to the previous studies of the Permian-Triassic Siberian trap basalts, our data indicate that by the P-T boundary the paleofield intensity was relatively high and comparable with geomagnetic field strength for the last 10 millions of years. New results question the duration of the "Mesozoic dipole-low".

  5. Transitional paleointensities from Kauai, Hawaii, and geomagnetic reversal models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogue, Scott W.; Coe, Robert S.

    1984-01-01

    Previously presented paleointensity results from an R-N transition zone in Kauai, Hawaii, show that field intensity dropped from 0. 431 Oe to 0. 101 Oe while the field remained within 30 degree of the reversed axial dipole direction. A recovery in intensity and the main directional change followed this presumably short period of low field strength. As the reversal neared completion, the field has an intensity of 0. 217 Oe while still 40 degree from the final direction. The relationship of paleointensity to field direction during the early part of the reversal thus differs from that toward the end, a feature that only some reversal models are consistent with. For example, a model in which a standing nondipole component persists through the dipole reversal predicts only symmetric intensity patterns. In contrast, zonal flooding models generate suitably complex field behavior if multiple flooding schemes operate during a single reversal or if the flooding process is itself asymmetric.

  6. Further details on the applicability of Thellier paleointensity method: The effect of magnitude of laboratory field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Juan; Goguitchaichvili, Avto; Alva-Valdivia, Luis M.; Urrutia-Fucugauchi, Jaime

    2006-06-01

    Twenty years after Tanaka and Kono's pioneering contribution (Tanaka and Kono, 1984), we give some new details on the effect of applied field strength during Thellier paleointensity experiments. Special attention is paid to the relation of magnitude of laboratory field and Coe's quality factors (Coe et al., 1978). Full thermoremanent magnetizations were imparted on natural samples containing low-Ti titanomagnetites of pseudo-single domain structure in a 40-μT magnetic field from 600 °C to room temperature. The samples were subjected to the routine Thellier procedure using a wide range of applied laboratory fields. Results indicate that values of laboratory fields may be accurately reproduced within 2% of standard error. The quality factors, however, decrease when the magnitude of 'ancient' field does not match to applied laboratory fields. To cite this article: J. Morales et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).

  7. Magnetic paleointensities recorded in fault pseudotachylytes and implications for earthquake lightnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leibovitz, Natalie; Ferré, Eric; Geissman, John; Gattacceca, Jérôme

    2015-04-01

    Fault pseudotachylytes commonly form by frictional melting due to seismic slip. These fine-grained clastic rocks result from melt quenching and may show a high concentration of fine ferromagnetic grains. These grains are potentially excellent recorders of the rock natural remanent magnetization (NRM). The magnetization processes of fault pseudotachylytes are complex and may include the following: i) near coseismic thermal remanent magnetization (TRM) acquired upon cooling of the melt; ii) coseismic lightning induced remanent magnetization (LIRM) caused by earthquake lightnings (EQL); iii) post seismic chemical remanent magnetization (CRM) related to both devitrification and alteration. Deciphering these magnetization components is crucial to the interpretation of microstructures and the timing of microstructural development. Hence the paleomagnetic record of fault pseudotachylytes provides an independent set of new constraints on coseismic and post-seismic deformation. Fault pseudotachylytes from the Santa Rosa Mountains, California host a magnetic assemblage dominated by stoichiometric magnetite, formed from the breakdown of ferromagnesian silicates and melt oxidation at high temperature. Magnetite grain size in these pseudotachylytes compares to that of magnetites formed in friction experiments. Paleomagnetic data on these 59 Ma-old fault rocks reveal not only anomalous magnetization directions, inconsistent with the coseismic geomagnetic field, but also anomalously high magnetization intensities. Here we discuss preliminary results of paleointensity experiments designed to quantify the intensity of coseismic magnetizing fields. The REM' paleointensity method is particularly well suited to investigate NRMs resulting from non-conventional and multiple magnetization processes. The anomalously high NRM recorded in a few, but not all, specimens points to LIRM as the dominant origin of magnetization.

  8. Intrinsic paleointensity bias and the long-term history of the geodynamo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnov, Aleksey V; Kulakov, Evgeniy V; Foucher, Marine S; Bristol, Katie E

    2017-02-01

    Many geodynamo models predict an inverse relationship between geomagnetic reversal frequency and field strength. However, most of the absolute paleointensity data, obtained predominantly by the Thellier method from bulk volcanic rocks, fail to confirm this relationship. Although low paleointensities are commonly observed during periods of high reversal rate (notably, in the late Jurassic), higher than present-day intensity values are rare during periods of no or few reversals (superchrons). We have identified a fundamental mechanism that results in a pervasive and previously unrecognized low-field bias that affects most paleointensity data in the global database. Our results provide an explanation for the discordance between the experimental data and numerical models, and lend additional support to an inverse relationship between the reversal rate and field strength as a fundamental property of the geodynamo. We demonstrate that the accuracy of future paleointensity analyses can be improved by integration of the Thellier protocol with low-temperature demagnetizations.

  9. Paleointensities of the Auckland Excursion from Volcanic Rocks in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mochizuki, N.; Tsunakawa, H.; Shibuya, H.; Cassidy, J.; Smith, I. E.

    2001-12-01

    Shibuya et al. (1992) reported the Auckland excursion from several basaltic lava flows of monogenetic volcanic centers (Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. The Auckland excursion was recorded in five centers in three intermediate direction groups of north-down, west and south. We carried out paleointensity and rock-magnetic studies in order to obtain the absolute paleointensities associated with three intermediate geomagnetic fields. Thermomagnetic analyses indicated typical Curie temperatures of 150-200, 450-500 and/or 550-580 oC. The Day plot (Day et al., 1977) showed a linear trend in the pseudo-single-domain range of magnetic carriers. Those results, combined with the reflection microscope observations, identified the magnetic carriers as titanomagnetites with wide variation in titanium content and grain size. First, the Coe's version of the Thellier method (Coe, 1967) was applied to the samples. Several samples seemed to give paleointensities ranging from 3.2 to 6.4 μ T (Shibuya and Cassidy, 1995 AGU fall meeting), but they were often affected by thermal alteration in the furnace even from fairly low temperature steps like 200oC. We were forced to introduce correction for thermal alterations in laboratory heating, using low temperature part of the Arai plot. We, therefore, applied the double heating technique (DHT) of Shaw method (Tsunakawa and Shaw, 1994), which was capable of detecting inappropriate results by the ARM correction, to the samples. The low temperature demagnetization (LTD) was combined with DHT (Yamamoto et al., submitted) before AF demagnetization and samples were heated in a vacuum of 10-100 Pa. Sixty-one samples from the five lava flows were subjected to the LTD-DHT Shaw method. Twenty-three of these samples yielded successful results passing the selection criteria. Five out of six paleointensities from the Crater Hill lava were consistent with each other. A mean paleointensity was given to be 10.9+/- 1.9 μ T (N=5) for the Crater Hill

  10. Geomagnetic Paleointensity Variations as a Cheap, High-Resolution Geochronometer for Recent Mid-Ocean Ridge Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    DYMENT, J.; HEMOND, C.

    2001-12-01

    of the data confirms the quality of the oceanic crust as a recorder of the geomagnetic variations. Future work in the framework of Project GIMNAUT include 1) the processing and interpretation of the available magnetic signals to obtain a detailed sequence of the geomagnetic fluctuations for the last 800 ka; 2) the dating of collected samples with different radiochronologic methods such as K-Ar and Ar-Ar for samples older than 100-150 ka and 230Th-238U for samples aged between 300-10 ka; and 3) the calibration of the geomagnetic intensity variation sequence as a high resolution geochronometer for the last 800 ka. Such a magnetic geochronometer would present an obvious interest for mid-ocean ridge studies, because of its low cost and simplicity of operation: it would only require the addition of a deep-sea magnetometer onto existing means of investigation such as submersibles, ROVs or AUVs. Beyond this application, this magnetic geochronometer could also be used for accurate dating of pelagic sedimentary sequences, through the analysis of relative paleointensities on cores, or of continental or island volcanic flows, through the determination of absolute paleointensities by the Thellier-Thellier method. (*) N. Arnaud, C. Bassoullet, M.. Benoit, A. Briais, F. Chabaux, A.K. Chaubey, A. Chauvin, P. Gente, H. Guillou, H. Horen, M. Kitazawa, B. Le Gall, M. Maia, M. Ravilly

  11. Fundamental relations of mineral specific magnetic carriers for paleointensity determination

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kletetschka, Günther; Wieczorek, M. A.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 272, November 2017 (2017), s. 44-49 ISSN 0031-9201 Institutional support: RVO:67985831 Keywords : Paleofield determination * TRM * Planetary magnetic anomalies * Néel’s theory of magnetism * Magnetic acquisition * Moon * Mars Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics OBOR OECD: Particles and field physics Impact factor: 2.075, year: 2016

  12. MSP-Tool: a VBA-based software tool for the analysis of multispecimen paleointensity data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monster, Marilyn; de Groot, Lennart; Dekkers, Mark

    2015-12-01

    The multispecimen protocol (MSP) is a method to estimate the Earth's magnetic field's past strength from volcanic rocks or archeological materials. By reducing the amount of heating steps and aligning the specimens parallel to the applied field, thermochemical alteration and multi-domain effects are minimized. We present a new software tool, written for Microsoft Excel 2010 in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), that evaluates paleointensity data acquired using this protocol. In addition to the three ratios (standard, fraction-corrected and domain-state-corrected) calculated following Dekkers and Böhnel (2006) and Fabian and Leonhardt (2010) and a number of other parameters proposed by Fabian and Leonhardt (2010), it also provides several reliability criteria. These include an alteration criterion, whether or not the linear regression intersects the y axis within the theoretically prescribed range, and two directional checks. Overprints and misalignment are detected by isolating the remaining natural remanent magnetization (NRM) and the partial thermoremanent magnetization (pTRM) gained and comparing their declinations and inclinations. The NRM remaining and pTRM gained are then used to calculate alignment-corrected multispecimen plots. Data are analyzed using bootstrap statistics. The program was tested on lava samples that were given a full TRM and that acquired their pTRMs at angles of 0, 15, 30 and 90° with respect to their NRMs. MSP-Tool adequately detected and largely corrected these artificial alignment errors.

  13. Relative Pose Estimation Algorithm with Gyroscope Sensor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanshan Wei

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel vision and inertial fusion algorithm S2fM (Simplified Structure from Motion for camera relative pose estimation. Different from current existing algorithms, our algorithm estimates rotation parameter and translation parameter separately. S2fM employs gyroscopes to estimate camera rotation parameter, which is later fused with the image data to estimate camera translation parameter. Our contributions are in two aspects. (1 Under the circumstance that no inertial sensor can estimate accurately enough translation parameter, we propose a translation estimation algorithm by fusing gyroscope sensor and image data. (2 Our S2fM algorithm is efficient and suitable for smart devices. Experimental results validate efficiency of the proposed S2fM algorithm.

  14. Paleointensity determination on Neoarchaean dikes within the Vodlozerskii terrane of the Karelian craton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shcherbakova, V. V.; Lubnina, N. V.; Shcherbakov, V. P.; Zhidkov, G. V.; Tsel'movich, V. A.

    2017-09-01

    The results of paleomagnetic studies and paleointensity determinations from two Neoarchaean Shala dikes with an age of 2504 Ma, located within the Vodlozerskii terrane of the Karelian craton, are presented. The characteristic components of primary magnetization with shallow inclinations I = -5.7 and 1.9 are revealed; the reliability of the determinations is supported by two contact tests. High paleointensity values are obtained by the Thellier-Coe and Wilson techniques. The calculated values of the virtual dipole moment (11.5 and 13.8) × 1022 A m2 are noticeably higher than the present value of 7.8 × 1022 A m2. Our results, in combination with the previous data presented in the world database, support the hypothesized existence of a period of high paleointensity in the Late Archaean-Early Proterozoic.

  15. Uncertainty relations for approximation and estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jaeha, E-mail: jlee@post.kek.jp [Department of Physics, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Tsutsui, Izumi, E-mail: izumi.tsutsui@kek.jp [Department of Physics, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Theory Center, Institute of Particle and Nuclear Studies, High Energy Accelerator Research Organization (KEK), 1-1 Oho, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0801 (Japan)

    2016-05-27

    We present a versatile inequality of uncertainty relations which are useful when one approximates an observable and/or estimates a physical parameter based on the measurement of another observable. It is shown that the optimal choice for proxy functions used for the approximation is given by Aharonov's weak value, which also determines the classical Fisher information in parameter estimation, turning our inequality into the genuine Cramér–Rao inequality. Since the standard form of the uncertainty relation arises as a special case of our inequality, and since the parameter estimation is available as well, our inequality can treat both the position–momentum and the time–energy relations in one framework albeit handled differently. - Highlights: • Several inequalities interpreted as uncertainty relations for approximation/estimation are derived from a single ‘versatile inequality’. • The ‘versatile inequality’ sets a limit on the approximation of an observable and/or the estimation of a parameter by another observable. • The ‘versatile inequality’ turns into an elaboration of the Robertson–Kennard (Schrödinger) inequality and the Cramér–Rao inequality. • Both the position–momentum and the time–energy relation are treated in one framework. • In every case, Aharonov's weak value arises as a key geometrical ingredient, deciding the optimal choice for the proxy functions.

  16. Uncertainty relations for approximation and estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jaeha; Tsutsui, Izumi

    2016-01-01

    We present a versatile inequality of uncertainty relations which are useful when one approximates an observable and/or estimates a physical parameter based on the measurement of another observable. It is shown that the optimal choice for proxy functions used for the approximation is given by Aharonov's weak value, which also determines the classical Fisher information in parameter estimation, turning our inequality into the genuine Cramér–Rao inequality. Since the standard form of the uncertainty relation arises as a special case of our inequality, and since the parameter estimation is available as well, our inequality can treat both the position–momentum and the time–energy relations in one framework albeit handled differently. - Highlights: • Several inequalities interpreted as uncertainty relations for approximation/estimation are derived from a single ‘versatile inequality’. • The ‘versatile inequality’ sets a limit on the approximation of an observable and/or the estimation of a parameter by another observable. • The ‘versatile inequality’ turns into an elaboration of the Robertson–Kennard (Schrödinger) inequality and the Cramér–Rao inequality. • Both the position–momentum and the time–energy relation are treated in one framework. • In every case, Aharonov's weak value arises as a key geometrical ingredient, deciding the optimal choice for the proxy functions.

  17. The Influence of Cooling Rates on Paleointensity of Volcanic Glasses: an Experimental Approach on Synthetic Glass

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Aulock, F. W.; Ferk, A.; Leonhardt, R.; Hess, K.-U.; Dingwell, D. B.

    2009-04-01

    The suitability of volcanic glass for paleointensity determinations has been proposed in many studies throughout the last years. Besides the mainly single domain magnetic remanence carriers and the pristine character of the volcanic glass, this was also reasoned by the possibility to correct paleointensity data for cooling rate dependency using relaxation geospeedometry. This method gives the cooling rate of a glass at the glass transition interval which marks the change of a ductile supercooled liquid to a brittle glass. In this study the cooling rate correction as carried out for example by Leonhardt et al. 2006 is tested on synthetic volcanic glass. In order to obtain a stable multicomponent glass with ideal magnetic properties, a natural phonolithic glass from Tenerife (Spain) was melted to avoid heterogeneity and degassing. Further it was tempered for 5 hours at 900 °C to yield a sufficient concentration of magnetic remanence carriers. To exclude nucleation or crystallisation 7 samples were then heated to about 50 °C above the glass transition temperature at around 720 °C and quenched at different rates from 0.1 to 15 K/min. After carrying out a paleointensity experiment using a modified Thellier method, which incorporated alteration, additivity and tail checks, the dependence of the thermoremance on cooling rate was investigated. Using the original cooling rates we corrected the data and obtained paleointensities of around 46 T, which is a good approximation of the ambient field of 48 T. Taking into account that the uncorrected mean paleointensity is about 57 T, this suggests that cooling rate correction is not only working, but also a necessary tool to yield the true field value. R. Leonhardt , J. Matzka, A.R.L. Nichols , D.B. Dingwell Cooling rate correction of paleointensity determination for volcanic glasses by relaxation geospeedometry; Earth and Planetary Science Letters 243 (2006) 282-292

  18. Estimating the relative utility of screening mammography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbey, Craig K; Eckstein, Miguel P; Boone, John M

    2013-05-01

    The concept of diagnostic utility is a fundamental component of signal detection theory, going back to some of its earliest works. Attaching utility values to the various possible outcomes of a diagnostic test should, in principle, lead to meaningful approaches to evaluating and comparing such systems. However, in many areas of medical imaging, utility is not used because it is presumed to be unknown. In this work, we estimate relative utility (the utility benefit of a detection relative to that of a correct rejection) for screening mammography using its known relation to the slope of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve at the optimal operating point. The approach assumes that the clinical operating point is optimal for the goal of maximizing expected utility and therefore the slope at this point implies a value of relative utility for the diagnostic task, for known disease prevalence. We examine utility estimation in the context of screening mammography using the Digital Mammographic Imaging Screening Trials (DMIST) data. We show how various conditions can influence the estimated relative utility, including characteristics of the rating scale, verification time, probability model, and scope of the ROC curve fit. Relative utility estimates range from 66 to 227. We argue for one particular set of conditions that results in a relative utility estimate of 162 (±14%). This is broadly consistent with values in screening mammography determined previously by other means. At the disease prevalence found in the DMIST study (0.59% at 365-day verification), optimal ROC slopes are near unity, suggesting that utility-based assessments of screening mammography will be similar to those found using Youden's index.

  19. Closed-Loop Surface Related Multiple Estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lopez Angarita, G.A.

    2016-01-01

    Surface-related multiple elimination (SRME) is one of the most commonly used methods for suppressing surface multiples. However, in order to obtain an accurate surface multiple estimation, dense source and receiver sampling is required. The traditional approach to this problem is performing data

  20. Paleomagnetic direction and paleointensity variations during the Matuyama-Brunhes polarity transition from a marine succession in the Chiba composite section of the Boso Peninsula, central Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, Makoto; Suganuma, Yusuke; Haneda, Yuki; Kazaoka, Osamu

    2017-03-01

    The youngest geomagnetic polarity reversal, the Matuyama-Brunhes (M-B) boundary, provides an important plane of data for sediments, ice cores, and lavas. The geomagnetic field intensity and directional changes that occurred during the reversal also provide important information for understanding the dynamics of the Earth's outer core, which generates the magnetic field. However, the reversal process is relatively rapid in terms of the geological timescale; therefore, adequate temporal resolution of the geomagnetic field record is essential for addressing these topics. Here, we report a new high-resolution paleomagnetic record from a continuous marine succession in the Chiba composite section of the Kokumoto Formation of the Kazusa Group, Japan, that reveals detailed behaviors of the virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) and relative paleointensity changes during the M-B polarity transition. The resultant relative paleointensity and VGP records show a significant paleointensity minimum near the M-B boundary, which is accompanied by a clear "polarity switch." A newly obtained high-resolution oxygen isotope chronology for the Chiba composite section indicates that the M-B boundary is located in the middle of marine isotope stage (MIS) 19 and yields an age of 771.7 ka for the boundary. This age is consistent with those based on the latest astronomically tuned marine and ice core records and with the recalculated age of 770.9 ± 7.3 ka deduced from the U-Pb zircon age of the Byk-E tephra. To the best of our knowledge, our new paleomagnetic data represent one of the most detailed records on this geomagnetic field reversal that has thus far been obtained from marine sediments and will therefore be key for understanding the dynamics of the geomagnetic dynamo and for calibrating the geological timescale.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  1. Equatorial Paleointensities from Kenya and the Well-behaved Geocentric Axial Dipole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H.; Kent, D. V.

    2017-12-01

    A previous study of Plio-Pleistocene lavas from the equatorial Galapagos Islands (latitude 1ºS) that used an adjustment for multidomain (MD) effects [Wang and Kent, 2013 G-cubed] obtained a mean paleointensity of 21.6 ± 11.0 µT (1σ, same in the following) from 27 lava flows [Wang et al., 2015 PNAS]. This is about half of the present-day value. Here, in a pilot study to check this result, we utilized previously thermally demagnetized specimens of Plio-Pleistocene lavas from the Mt. Kenya region (latitude 0º) and fresh specimens from the Loiyangalani region (latitude 3ºN) of Kenya that were previously studied for paleosecular variation [Opdyke et al., 2010 G-cubed] for paleointensity studies. We selected 2-3 specimens from each of 30 lava sites from Mt. Kenya region and 31 lava sites from Loiyangalani region with coherent directions and not exhibiting any indications of having been struck by severe lightning. Rock magnetic data show that the main magnetization carriers are fine-grained pseudo-single-domain magnetite with saturation remanence to saturation magnetization ratios (Mr/Ms) ranging from 0.05 to 0.60 [Opdyke et al., 2010, G-cubed]. Our preliminary MD-adjusted paleointensity results (Loiyangalani specimens with tTRM thermal alteration check [Wang and Kent, 2013 G-cubed]; Mt. Kenya specimens with an alternate thermal alteration check) show that the overall mean values are 15.3 ± 5.7 µT for the Mt. Kenya region (from 7 lava flows) and 16.4 ± 5.2 µT for the Loiyangalani region (from 8 lava flows). Along with paleointensities from Antarctica (latitude 78ºS, 33.4 ± 13.9 µT from 38 lava flows) [Lawrence et al., 2009 G-cubed], Iceland (latitude 64ºN, 37.7 ± 14.2 µT from 10 lava flows) [Cromwell et al., 2015 JGR] and Galapagos [Wang et al., 2015 PNAS], our preliminary Kenya lava results support a geocentric axial dipole (GAD) model of the time-averaged field in both direction (tan[inclination] = 2×tan[latitude]) and paleointensity (equatorial

  2. Archeomagnetic dating of the eruption of Xitle volcano (Mexico) from a reappraisal of the paleointensity with the MSP-DSC protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo-Ayala, Manuel; Camps, Pierre; Alva-Valdivia, Luis; Poidras, Thierry; Nicol, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    The Xitle volcano, located south of Mexico City, is a monogenic volcano that has provided seven lava flows in a time interval of a few years. The age of these eruptions, estimated by means of radiocarbon dates on charcoal from beneath the flows, is still very poorly known, ranging from 4765±90 BC to 520±200 AD (see Siebe, JVGR, 2000 for a review). This lava field was emplaced over the archaeological city of Cuicuilco whose occupation is estimated between 700 BC and 150 AD. Thus a question is still pending: Is the downfall of Cuicuilco directly attributable to the eruption of Xitle? It seems that the answer is negative if we consider the latest radiocarbon dating by Siebe (2000), which sets the age of the eruption to 280±35 AD, that is significantly younger to the abandon of the city. Because this new age has direct implications on the history of the movements of ancient populations in the Central Valley of Mexico, we propose in the present study to check this estimate by archaeomagnetic dating. Xitle lava have been investigated several times for paleomagnetism, including directional analyses and absolute paleointensity determinations (see Alva, EPS, 57, 839-853, 2005 for a review). The characteristic Remanence direction is precisely determined. It is much more difficult to estimate precisely the paleointensity with the Thellier method: values scatter between 40 and 90 μT in a single flow (Alva, 2005). We propose here to estimate the paleointensity by means of the MSP-DSC protocol (Fabian and Leonhardt, 2010) with the new ultra-fast heating furnace FUReMAG developed in Montpellier (France). The sampling was performed along four profiles, one vertical through the entire thickness of the flow and three horizontal (at the top, middle and the bottom of the flow). Our preliminary results show that there is no difference between the values found in the different profiles, all providing a value around 62 μT. The comparison of our results (Dec = 359.0°, Inc = 35.2

  3. New paleomagnetic and paleointensity results from late pliocene volcanic sequences from southern Georgia (Caucasus)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calvo-Rathert, Manuel; Bogalo, Maria-Felicidad; Carrancho, Angel; Villalain, Juan Jose [Universidad de Burgos, Burgos (Spain). Departamento de Fisica, EPS; Goguichaichvili, Avto [Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Morelia (Mexico). Laboratorio de Magnetismo Natural, Instituto de Geofisica; Vegas-Tubia, Nestor [Universidad del Pais Vasco, Bilbao (Spain). Departamento de Geodinamica; Sologashvili, Jemal [Ivane Javakhishvili State University of Tbilisi, Tbilisi (Georgia). Department of Geophysics

    2009-07-01

    Complete text of publication follows. Paleomagnetic and rock-magnetic experiments were carried out on 21 basaltic lava flows belonging to four different sequences of late Pliocene age from southern Georgia (Caucasus): Dmanisi (11 flows), Diliska (5 flows), Kvemo Orozmani (5 flows), and Zemo Karabulaki (3 flows). Paleomagnetic analysis generally showed the presence of a single component (mainly in the Dmanisi sequence) but also two more or less superimposed components in several other cases. All sites except one clearly displayed a normal-polarity characteristic component. Rock-magnetic experiments included measurement of thermomagnetic curves and hysteresis parameters. Susceptibility-versus-temperature curves measured in argon atmosphere on whole-rock powdered samples yielded low-Ti titanomagnetite as main carrier of remanence, although a lower T{sub C}-component was also observed in several cases. Both reversible and non-reversible k-T curves were measured. A pilot paleointensity study was performed with the Coe (1967) method on two samples of each of those sites considered suitable after interpretation of rock-magnetic and paleomagnetic data from all sites. The pilot study showed that reliable paleointensity results were mainly obtained from sites of the Dmanisi sequence. This thick sequence of basaltic lava flows records the upper end of the normal-polarity Olduvai subchron, a fact confirmed by {sup 40}Ar/{sup 39}Ar dating of the uppermost lava flow and overlying volcanogenic ashes, which yields ages of 1.8 to 1.85 My. A second paleointensity experiment was carried out only on samples belonging to the Dmanisi sequence. Preliminary results show that paleointensities often are low, their values lying between 10 and 20 muT in many cases. For comparison, present day field is 47 muT. The Dmanisi sequence of lava flows directly underlies the Dmanisi paleoanthropologic site, in which the end of the Olduvai subchron is recorded.

  4. A Gaussian IV estimator of cointegrating relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bårdsen, Gunnar; Haldrup, Niels

    2006-01-01

    In static single equation cointegration regression modelsthe OLS estimator will have a non-standard distribution unless regressors arestrictly exogenous. In the literature a number of estimators have been suggestedto deal with this problem, especially by the use of semi-nonparametricestimators. T......In static single equation cointegration regression modelsthe OLS estimator will have a non-standard distribution unless regressors arestrictly exogenous. In the literature a number of estimators have been suggestedto deal with this problem, especially by the use of semi...... in cointegrating regressions. These instruments are almost idealand simulations show that the IV estimator using such instruments alleviatethe endogeneity problem extremely well in both finite and large samples....

  5. Paleointensity determinations during the Akaroa polarity reversal, New Zealand: New input from the multispecimen parallel differential pTRM method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camps, P.; Fanjat, G.; Poidras, T.; Hoffman, K. A.; Carvallo, C.; kennedy, B.

    2011-12-01

    We resampled two polarity reversals of late Miocene age (~ 9 Ma) recorded successively in the Akaroa volcano (Hoffman, 1986, Nature). Our main objective was to check old paleointensity determinations (Sherwood & Shaw, 1986, J. Geomag. Geoelec.) that yielded stronger values during the transitional period than during stable periods that preceded and followed the reversals. This observation is opposite to what is generally observed. An increase in intensity during the reversal would provide an extreme example of increasing secular variation. However, the experimental method used for determining the paleointensity, method of Shaw, is strongly questioned by the scientific community. A check of these data by the conventional Thellier method was required. Unfortunately, among the 72 sampled flows, only 4 yielded rock magnetic properties well suited for Thellier determinations. In most of the flows, the presence of large Multi-Domain grains of Ti-magnetite, which are frequently associated with Ti-maghemite, precludes any Thellier paleointensity determinations. We implement the domain-state independent paleointensity method (the multispecimen parallel differential pTRM, Dekkers & Bohnel, 2006, EPSL; Fabian & Leonhardt, 2010, EPSL) for 16 lava flows in which the MD Ti-magnetite are not oxidized. Thellier paleointensities obtained do not confirm the Sherwood results but show more scattered values of the intensity even during the stable periods of the field. To complete the data, multispecimen mesearements are being to be done.

  6. Cancer Related-Knowledge - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    These model-based estimates are produced using statistical models that combine data from the Health Information National Trends Survey, and auxiliary variables obtained from relevant sources and borrow strength from other areas with similar characteristics.

  7. Method-related estimates of sperm vitality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Trevor G; Hellenkemper, Barbara

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of methods that estimate viability of human spermatozoa by monitoring head membrane permeability revealed that wet preparations (whether using positive or negative phase-contrast microscopy) generated significantly higher percentages of nonviable cells than did air-dried eosin-nigrosin smears. Only with the latter method did the sum of motile (presumed live) and stained (presumed dead) preparations never exceed 100%, making this the method of choice for sperm viability estimates.

  8. On the relation between S-Estimators and M-Estimators of multivariate location and covariance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lopuhaa, H.P.

    1987-01-01

    We discuss the relation between S-estimators and M-estimators of multivariate location and covariance. As in the case of the estimation of a multiple regression parameter, S-estimators are shown to satisfy first-order conditions of M-estimators. We show that the influence function IF (x;S F) of

  9. A new relation to estimate nuclear radius

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, M.; Kumar, Pradeep; Singh, Y.; Gupta, K.K.; Varshney, A.K.; Gupta, D.K.

    2013-01-01

    The uncertainty found in Grodzins semi empirical relation may be due to the non - consideration of asymmetry in the relation. In the present work we propose a new relation connecting B(E2; 2 1 + → 0 1 + ) and E2 1 + with asymmetric parameter γ

  10. Paleointensity Variation of The Earth's Magnetic Field Obtained from Neogene and Quaternary Volcanic Rocks in Central Anatolian Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaya, Nurcan; Makaroǧlu, Özlem; Hisarlı, Z. Mümtaz

    2017-04-01

    We present the variation of the earth magnetic field intensity obtained from Neogene and Quaternary volcanic rocks located in the Central Anatolian plateau. Total of four hundred and fifty volcanic rocks were sub-sampled in eighteen different sites around the study region. A modified Thellier method including the Leonhardt protocol was used to determine paleointensity values. Paleointensity results from ten sites were accepted according to the confidence criteria . According to first results the average total paleointensity field values, indicated by F, are 51.797±5.044 μT for site NK8,NK17,NK18,NK15 with age of 4.4-10.7 my, 51.91±4.651 for site NK4, NK3, NK12, NK6, NK11, NK14 with age of 0.1-2.6 m.y. The average VDMs (Virtual Dipol Moments) correspond to 8.39x1022 , 8.92x1022 Am2 for the four Neogene and six Quaternary rocks sites respectively. Our data were correlated with IAGA database that were obtained from the surrounding area. The correlation showed that the paleointensity data from the Central Anatolia plateau considerably agree with the IAGA data.

  11. Parametric Bayesian Estimation of Differential Entropy and Relative Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maya Gupta

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Given iid samples drawn from a distribution with known parametric form, we propose the minimization of expected Bregman divergence to form Bayesian estimates of differential entropy and relative entropy, and derive such estimators for the uniform, Gaussian, Wishart, and inverse Wishart distributions. Additionally, formulas are given for a log gamma Bregman divergence and the differential entropy and relative entropy for the Wishart and inverse Wishart. The results, as always with Bayesian estimates, depend on the accuracy of the prior parameters, but example simulations show that the performance can be substantially improved compared to maximum likelihood or state-of-the-art nonparametric estimators.

  12. Parametric Bayesian Estimation of Differential Entropy and Relative Entropy

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta; Srivastava

    2010-01-01

    Given iid samples drawn from a distribution with known parametric form, we propose the minimization of expected Bregman divergence to form Bayesian estimates of differential entropy and relative entropy, and derive such estimators for the uniform, Gaussian, Wishart, and inverse Wishart distributions. Additionally, formulas are given for a log gamma Bregman divergence and the differential entropy and relative entropy for the Wishart and inverse Wishart. The results, as always with Bayesian est...

  13. Blind estimation of a ship's relative wave heading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Ulrik Dam; Iseki, Toshio

    2012-01-01

    This article proposes a method to estimate a ship’s relative heading against the waves. The procedure relies purely on ship- board measurements of global responses such as motion components, accelerations and the bending moment amidships. There is no particular (mathematical) model connected to t...... to the estimate, and therefore it is called a ’blind estimate’. The approach is in this introductory study tested by analysing simulated data. The analysis reveals that it is possible to estimate a ship’s relative heading on the basis of shipboard measurements only....

  14. Comparison of Thellier-type and multispecimen absolute paleointensities obtained on Miocene to historical lava flows from Lanzarote (Canary Islands, Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo-Rathert, M.; Morales, J.; Carrancho, Á.; Gogichaishvili, A.

    2015-12-01

    A paleomagnetic, rock-magnetic and paleointensity study has been carried out on 16 Miocene, Pleistocene, Quaternary and historical lava flows from Lanzarote (Canary Islands, Spain) with two main goals: (i) Compare paleointensity results obtained with two different techniques (Thellier-type and multispecimen) and (ii) obtain new paleointensity data. Initial rock-magnetic experiments on selected samples from each site were carried out to find out the carriers of remanence and to determine their thermal stability and grain size. They included the measurement of thermomagnetic curves, hysteresis parameters and IRM acquisition curves. Mostly reversible but also non-reversible curves were recorded in thermomagnetic experiments, with low-Ti titanomagnetite being the main carrier of remanence in most studied flows. Paleomagnetic analysis showed in most cases a single component and a characteristic component could be determined in 15 flows, all displaying normal-polarity. 83 samples from 13 flows were chosen for paleointensity experiments. In order to compare paleointensity results from exactly the same samples, they were cut into smaller specimens so that in each case a specimen was available to be used for a Thellier-type paleointensity determination, another one for a multispecimen paleointensity experiment and another one for rock-magnetic experiments. Thermomagnetic curves could be therefore measured on all samples subjected to paleointensity experiments. Thellier-type paleointensity determinations were performed with the Coe method between room temperature and 581°C on small (0.9 cm diameter and 1 to 2.5 cm length) specimens. After heating, samples were left cooling down naturally during several hours. Multispecimen paleointensity determinations were carried out using the method of Dekkers and Böhnel. The aforementioned sub-samples were cut into 8 specimens and pressed into salt pellets in order to obtain standard cylindrical specimens. A set of eight experiments

  15. Estimating maneuvers for precise relative orbit determination using GPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allende-Alba, Gerardo; Montenbruck, Oliver; Ardaens, Jean-Sébastien; Wermuth, Martin; Hugentobler, Urs

    2017-01-01

    Precise relative orbit determination is an essential element for the generation of science products from distributed instrumentation of formation flying satellites in low Earth orbit. According to the mission profile, the required formation is typically maintained and/or controlled by executing maneuvers. In order to generate consistent and precise orbit products, a strategy for maneuver handling is mandatory in order to avoid discontinuities or precision degradation before, after and during maneuver execution. Precise orbit determination offers the possibility of maneuver estimation in an adjustment of single-satellite trajectories using GPS measurements. However, a consistent formulation of a precise relative orbit determination scheme requires the implementation of a maneuver estimation strategy which can be used, in addition, to improve the precision of maneuver estimates by drawing upon the use of differential GPS measurements. The present study introduces a method for precise relative orbit determination based on a reduced-dynamic batch processing of differential GPS pseudorange and carrier phase measurements, which includes maneuver estimation as part of the relative orbit adjustment. The proposed method has been validated using flight data from space missions with different rates of maneuvering activity, including the GRACE, TanDEM-X and PRISMA missions. The results show the feasibility of obtaining precise relative orbits without degradation in the vicinity of maneuvers as well as improved maneuver estimates that can be used for better maneuver planning in flight dynamics operations.

  16. Estimating relative demand for wildlife: Conservation activity indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Gary G.; Larson, Joseph S.

    1982-09-01

    An alternative method of estimating relative demand among nonconsumptive uses of wildlife and among wildlife species is proposed. A demand intensity score (DIS), derived from the relative extent of an individual's involvement in outdoor recreation and conservation activities, is used as a weighting device to adjust the importance of preference rankings for wildlife uses and wildlife species relative to other members of a survey population. These adjusted preference rankings were considered to reflect relative demand levels (RDLs) for wildlife uses and for species by the survey population. This technique may be useful where it is not possible or desirable to estimate demand using traditional economic means. In one of the findings from a survey of municipal conservation commission members in Massachusetts, presented as an illustration of this methodology, poisonous snakes were ranked third in preference among five groups of reptiles. The relative demand level for poisonous snakes, however, was last among the five groups.

  17. Relative azimuth inversion by way of damped maximum correlation estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringler, A.T.; Edwards, J.D.; Hutt, C.R.; Shelly, F.

    2012-01-01

    Horizontal seismic data are utilized in a large number of Earth studies. Such work depends on the published orientations of the sensitive axes of seismic sensors relative to true North. These orientations can be estimated using a number of different techniques: SensOrLoc (Sensitivity, Orientation and Location), comparison to synthetics (Ekstrom and Busby, 2008), or by way of magnetic compass. Current methods for finding relative station azimuths are unable to do so with arbitrary precision quickly because of limitations in the algorithms (e.g. grid search methods). Furthermore, in order to determine instrument orientations during station visits, it is critical that any analysis software be easily run on a large number of different computer platforms and the results be obtained quickly while on site. We developed a new technique for estimating relative sensor azimuths by inverting for the orientation with the maximum correlation to a reference instrument, using a non-linear parameter estimation routine. By making use of overlapping windows, we are able to make multiple azimuth estimates, which helps to identify the confidence of our azimuth estimate, even when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is low. Finally, our algorithm has been written as a stand-alone, platform independent, Java software package with a graphical user interface for reading and selecting data segments to be analyzed.

  18. The Hurst Phenomenon in Error Estimates Related to Atmospheric Turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Nelson Luís; Crivellaro, Bianca Luhm; Chamecki, Marcelo

    2018-05-01

    The Hurst phenomenon is a well-known feature of long-range persistence first observed in hydrological and geophysical time series by E. Hurst in the 1950s. It has also been found in several cases in turbulence time series measured in the wind tunnel, the atmosphere, and in rivers. Here, we conduct a systematic investigation of the value of the Hurst coefficient H in atmospheric surface-layer data, and its impact on the estimation of random errors. We show that usually H > 0.5 , which implies the non-existence (in the statistical sense) of the integral time scale. Since the integral time scale is present in the Lumley-Panofsky equation for the estimation of random errors, this has important practical consequences. We estimated H in two principal ways: (1) with an extension of the recently proposed filtering method to estimate the random error (H_p ), and (2) with the classical rescaled range introduced by Hurst (H_R ). Other estimators were tried but were found less able to capture the statistical behaviour of the large scales of turbulence. Using data from three micrometeorological campaigns we found that both first- and second-order turbulence statistics display the Hurst phenomenon. Usually, H_R is larger than H_p for the same dataset, raising the question that one, or even both, of these estimators, may be biased. For the relative error, we found that the errors estimated with the approach adopted by us, that we call the relaxed filtering method, and that takes into account the occurrence of the Hurst phenomenon, are larger than both the filtering method and the classical Lumley-Panofsky estimates. Finally, we found that there is no apparent relationship between H and the Obukhov stability parameter. The relative errors, however, do show stability dependence, particularly in the case of the error of the kinematic momentum flux in unstable conditions, and that of the kinematic sensible heat flux in stable conditions.

  19. Multiple-specimen absolute paleointensity determination with the MSP-DSC protocol: Advantages and drawbacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camps, P.; Fanjat, G.; Poidras, T.; Carvallo, C.; Nicol, P.

    2012-04-01

    The MSP-DSC protocol (Dekkers & Bohnel, 2006, EPSL; Fabian & Leonhardt, 2010, EPSL) is a recent development in the methodology for documenting the intensity of the ancient Earth magnetic field. Applicable both on rocks or archaeological artifacts it allows us to use samples that until now were not measured because their magnetic properties do not meet selection criteria required by conventional methods. However, this new experimental protocol requires that samples be heated and cooled under a field parallel to its natural remanent magnetization (NRM). Currently, standard paleointensity furnaces do not match precisely this constraint. Yet, such new measurement protocol seems very promising since it would possibly double the number of available data. We are developing in Montpellier (France), a very fast-heating oven with infrared dedicated to this protocol. Two key points determine its characteristics. The first is to heat uniformly a rock sample of a 10-cc-standard volume as fast as possible. The second is to apply to the sample during the heating (and the cooling) a precise magnetic induction field, perfectly controlled in 3D. We tested and calibrated a preliminary version of this oven along with the MSP-DSC protocol with 3 historical lava flows, 2 from Reunion Island (erupted in 2002 and 2007) and one from Etna (erupted in 1983). These lava flows were selected because they have different magnetic behaviors. Reunion 2002 is rather SD-PSD-like, while Reunion 2007 is PSD-MD-like, and Etna 1983 is MD-like. The paleointensity determinations obtained with the original protocol of Dekkers and Bohnel (2006, EPSL) are within +- 1 μT of the known field for the three lava flows. The same precision is obtained when we applied the fraction correction (MSP-FC protocol). However, we systematically observed a loss in the linearity of the MSP-FC plots. In addition, like Muxworthy and Taylor (2011, GJI), we found that the Domain State Correction is difficult to apply since alpha

  20. Estimating Body Related Soft Biometric Traits in Video Frames

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olasimbo Ayodeji Arigbabu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Soft biometrics can be used as a prescreening filter, either by using single trait or by combining several traits to aid the performance of recognition systems in an unobtrusive way. In many practical visual surveillance scenarios, facial information becomes difficult to be effectively constructed due to several varying challenges. However, from distance the visual appearance of an object can be efficiently inferred, thereby providing the possibility of estimating body related information. This paper presents an approach for estimating body related soft biometrics; specifically we propose a new approach based on body measurement and artificial neural network for predicting body weight of subjects and incorporate the existing technique on single view metrology for height estimation in videos with low frame rate. Our evaluation on 1120 frame sets of 80 subjects from a newly compiled dataset shows that the mentioned soft biometric information of human subjects can be adequately predicted from set of frames.

  1. Estimation of nuclear power-related expenditures in fiscal 1982

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    In fiscal 1982 (April to March, 1983), the research and development on nuclear power should be promoted actively and extensively by taking the appropriate measures. In view of the importance, the budgetary expenditures are to be estimated duly for the purpose, considering also the stringent financial situation. The budgetary expenditures for nuclear power estimated for the fiscal year 1982 are about 292,800 Million in total and the obligation act limit is about 139,900 Million. The following matters are described: nuclear power-related measures for securing nuclear power safety, promotion of nuclear power generation, establishment of the nuclear fuel cycle, development of power reactors, research on nuclear fusion, strengthening of the foundation in nuclear power research, development and utilization, promotion of international cooperation, etc.; estimated budgetary expenditures; tables of budgetary demands in various categories. (J.P.N.)

  2. Relative Pose Estimation and Accuracy Verification of Spherical Panoramic Image

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    XIE Donghai

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper improves the method of the traditional 5-point relative pose estimation algorithm, and proposes a relative pose estimation algorithm which is suitable for spherical panoramic images. The algorithm firstly computes the essential matrix, then decomposes the essential matrix to obtain the rotation matrix and the translation vector using SVD, and finally the reconstructed three-dimensional points are used to eliminate the error solution. The innovation of the algorithm lies the derivation of panorama epipolar formula and the use of the spherical distance from the point to the epipolar plane as the error term for the spherical panorama co-planarity function. The simulation experiment shows that when the random noise of the image feature points is within the range of pixel, the error of the three Euler angles is about 0.1°, and the error between the relative translational displacement and the simulated value is about 1.5°. The result of the experiment using the data obtained by the vehicle panorama camera and the POS shows that:the error of the roll angle and pitch angle can be within 0.2°, the error of the heading angle can be within 0.4°, and the error between the relative translational displacement and the POS can be within 2°. The result of our relative pose estimation algorithm is used to generate the spherical panoramic epipolar images, then we extract the key points between the spherical panoramic images and calculate the errors in the column direction. The result shows that the errors is less than 1 pixel.

  3. Maximum Correntropy Unscented Kalman Filter for Spacecraft Relative State Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xi Liu

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A new algorithm called maximum correntropy unscented Kalman filter (MCUKF is proposed and applied to relative state estimation in space communication networks. As is well known, the unscented Kalman filter (UKF provides an efficient tool to solve the non-linear state estimate problem. However, the UKF usually plays well in Gaussian noises. Its performance may deteriorate substantially in the presence of non-Gaussian noises, especially when the measurements are disturbed by some heavy-tailed impulsive noises. By making use of the maximum correntropy criterion (MCC, the proposed algorithm can enhance the robustness of UKF against impulsive noises. In the MCUKF, the unscented transformation (UT is applied to obtain a predicted state estimation and covariance matrix, and a nonlinear regression method with the MCC cost is then used to reformulate the measurement information. Finally, the UT is adopted to the measurement equation to obtain the filter state and covariance matrix. Illustrative examples demonstrate the superior performance of the new algorithm.

  4. Uncertainty related to Environmental Data and Estimated Extreme Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, H. F.

    The design loads on rubble mound breakwaters are almost entirely determined by the environmental conditions, i.e. sea state, water levels, sea bed characteristics, etc. It is the objective of sub-group B to identify the most important environmental parameters and evaluate the related uncertainties...... including those corresponding to extreme estimates typically used for design purposes. Basically a design condition is made up of a set of parameter values stemming from several environmental parameters. To be able to evaluate the uncertainty related to design states one must know the corresponding joint....... Consequently this report deals mainly with each parameter separately. Multi parameter problems are briefly discussed in section 9. It is important to notice that the quantified uncertainties reported in section 7.7 represent what might be regarded as typical figures to be used only when no more qualified...

  5. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

  6. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

  7. Work related injuries: estimating the incidence among illegally employed immigrants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fadda Emanuela

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Statistics on occupational accidents are based on data from registered employees. With the increasing number of immigrants employed illegally and/or without regular working visas in many developed countries, it is of interest to estimate the injury rate among such unregistered workers. Findings The current study was conducted in an area of North-Eastern Italy. The sources of information employed in the present study were the Accidents and Emergencies records of a hospital; the population data on foreign-born residents in the hospital catchment area (Health Care District 4, Primary Care Trust 20, Province of Verona, Veneto Region, North-Eastern Italy; and the estimated proportion of illegally employed workers in representative samples from the Province of Verona and the Veneto Region. Of the 419 A&E records collected between January and December 2004 among non European Union (non-EU immigrants, 146 aroused suspicion by reporting the home, rather than the workplace, as the site of the accident. These cases were the numerator of the rate. The number of illegally employed non-EU workers, denominator of the rate, was estimated according to different assumptions and ranged from between 537 to 1,338 individuals. The corresponding rates varied from 109.1 to 271.8 per 1,000 non-EU illegal employees, against 65 per 1,000 reported in Italy in 2004. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that there is an unrecorded burden of illegally employed immigrants suffering from work related injuries. Additional efforts for prevention of injuries in the workplace are required to decrease this number. It can be concluded that the Italian National Institute for the Insurance of Work Related Injuries (INAIL probably underestimates the incidence of these accidents in Italy.

  8. Work related injuries: estimating the incidence among illegally employed immigrants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastrangelo, Giuseppe; Rylander, Ragnar; Buja, Alessandra; Marangi, Gianluca; Fadda, Emanuela; Fedeli, Ugo; Cegolon, Luca

    2010-12-08

    Statistics on occupational accidents are based on data from registered employees. With the increasing number of immigrants employed illegally and/or without regular working visas in many developed countries, it is of interest to estimate the injury rate among such unregistered workers. The current study was conducted in an area of North-Eastern Italy. The sources of information employed in the present study were the Accidents and Emergencies records of a hospital; the population data on foreign-born residents in the hospital catchment area (Health Care District 4, Primary Care Trust 20, Province of Verona, Veneto Region, North-Eastern Italy); and the estimated proportion of illegally employed workers in representative samples from the Province of Verona and the Veneto Region. Of the 419 A&E records collected between January and December 2004 among non European Union (non-EU) immigrants, 146 aroused suspicion by reporting the home, rather than the workplace, as the site of the accident. These cases were the numerator of the rate. The number of illegally employed non-EU workers, denominator of the rate, was estimated according to different assumptions and ranged from between 537 to 1,338 individuals. The corresponding rates varied from 109.1 to 271.8 per 1,000 non-EU illegal employees, against 65 per 1,000 reported in Italy in 2004. The results of this study suggest that there is an unrecorded burden of illegally employed immigrants suffering from work related injuries. Additional efforts for prevention of injuries in the workplace are required to decrease this number. It can be concluded that the Italian National Institute for the Insurance of Work Related Injuries (INAIL) probably underestimates the incidence of these accidents in Italy.

  9. The relative pose estimation of aircraft based on contour model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Tai; Sun, Xiangyi

    2017-02-01

    This paper proposes a relative pose estimation approach based on object contour model. The first step is to obtain a two-dimensional (2D) projection of three-dimensional (3D)-model-based target, which will be divided into 40 forms by clustering and LDA analysis. Then we proceed by extracting the target contour in each image and computing their Pseudo-Zernike Moments (PZM), thus a model library is constructed in an offline mode. Next, we spot a projection contour that resembles the target silhouette most in the present image from the model library with reference of PZM; then similarity transformation parameters are generated as the shape context is applied to match the silhouette sampling location, from which the identification parameters of target can be further derived. Identification parameters are converted to relative pose parameters, in the premise that these values are the initial result calculated via iterative refinement algorithm, as the relative pose parameter is in the neighborhood of actual ones. At last, Distance Image Iterative Least Squares (DI-ILS) is employed to acquire the ultimate relative pose parameters.

  10. Estimating the temporal distribution of exposure-related cancers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, R.L.; Sposto, R.; Preston, D.L.

    1993-09-01

    The temporal distribution of exposure-related cancers is relevant to the study of carcinogenic mechanisms. Statistical methods for extracting pertinent information from time-to-tumor data, however, are not well developed. Separation of incidence from 'latency' and the contamination of background cases are two problems. In this paper, we present methods for estimating both the conditional distribution given exposure-related cancers observed during the study period and the unconditional distribution. The methods adjust for confounding influences of background cases and the relationship between time to tumor and incidence. Two alternative methods are proposed. The first is based on a structured, theoretically derived model and produces direct inferences concerning the distribution of interest but often requires more-specialized software. The second relies on conventional modeling of incidence and is implemented through readily available, easily used computer software. Inferences concerning the effects of radiation dose and other covariates, however, are not always obtainable directly. We present three examples to illustrate the use of these two methods and suggest criteria for choosing between them. The first approach was used, with a log-logistic specification of the distribution of interest, to analyze times to bone sarcoma among a group of German patients injected with 224 Ra. Similarly, a log-logistic specification was used in the analysis of time to chronic myelogenous leukemias among male atomic-bomb survivors. We used the alternative approach, involving conventional modeling, to estimate the conditional distribution of exposure-related acute myelogenous leukemias among male atomic-bomb survivors, given occurrence between 1 October 1950 and 31 December 1985. All analyses were performed using Poisson regression methods for analyzing grouped survival data. (J.P.N.)

  11. Robust estimation of event-related potentials via particle filter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukami, Tadanori; Watanabe, Jun; Ishikawa, Fumito

    2016-03-01

    In clinical examinations and brain-computer interface (BCI) research, a short electroencephalogram (EEG) measurement time is ideal. The use of event-related potentials (ERPs) relies on both estimation accuracy and processing time. We tested a particle filter that uses a large number of particles to construct a probability distribution. We constructed a simple model for recording EEG comprising three components: ERPs approximated via a trend model, background waves constructed via an autoregressive model, and noise. We evaluated the performance of the particle filter based on mean squared error (MSE), P300 peak amplitude, and latency. We then compared our filter with the Kalman filter and a conventional simple averaging method. To confirm the efficacy of the filter, we used it to estimate ERP elicited by a P300 BCI speller. A 400-particle filter produced the best MSE. We found that the merit of the filter increased when the original waveform already had a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) (i.e., the power ratio between ERP and background EEG). We calculated the amount of averaging necessary after applying a particle filter that produced a result equivalent to that associated with conventional averaging, and determined that the particle filter yielded a maximum 42.8% reduction in measurement time. The particle filter performed better than both the Kalman filter and conventional averaging for a low SNR in terms of both MSE and P300 peak amplitude and latency. For EEG data produced by the P300 speller, we were able to use our filter to obtain ERP waveforms that were stable compared with averages produced by a conventional averaging method, irrespective of the amount of averaging. We confirmed that particle filters are efficacious in reducing the measurement time required during simulations with a low SNR. Additionally, particle filters can perform robust ERP estimation for EEG data produced via a P300 speller. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Estimates of Leaf Relative Water Content from Optical Polarization Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlgren, R. P.; Vanderbilt, V. C.; Daughtry, C. S. T.

    2017-12-01

    Remotely sensing the water status of plant canopies remains a long term goal of remote sensing research. Existing approaches to remotely sensing canopy water status, such as the Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI) and the Equivalent Water Thickness (EWT), have limitations. The CWSI, based upon remotely sensing canopy radiant temperature in the thermal infrared spectral region, does not work well in humid regions, requires estimates of the vapor pressure deficit near the canopy during the remote sensing over-flight and, once stomata close, provides little information regarding the canopy water status. The EWT is based upon the physics of water-light interaction in the 900-2000nm spectral region, not plant physiology. Our goal, development of a remote sensing technique for estimating plant water status based upon measurements in the VIS/NIR spectral region, would potentially provide remote sensing access to plant dehydration physiology - to the cellular photochemistry and structural changes associated with water deficits in leaves. In this research, we used optical, crossed polarization filters to measure the VIS/NIR light reflected from the leaf interior, R, as well as the leaf transmittance, T, for 78 corn (Zea mays) and soybean (Glycine max) leaves having relative water contents (RWC) between 0.60 and 0.98. Our results show that as RWC decreases R increases while T decreases. Our results tie R and T changes in the VIS/NIR to leaf physiological changes - linking the light scattered out of the drying leaf interior to its relative water content and to changes in leaf cellular structure and pigments. Our results suggest remotely sensing the physiological water status of a single leaf - and perhaps of a plant canopy - might be possible in the future.

  13. Report on estimated nuclear energy related cost for fiscal 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    The report first describes major actions planned to be taken in Japan in fiscal 1991 in the field of nuclear energy utilization. Major activities to be made for comprehensive strengthening of safety assurance measures are described, focusing on improvement of nuclear energy related safety regulations, promotion of research for safety assurance, improvement and strengthening of disaster prevention measures, environmental radioactivity surveys, control of exposure of workers engaged in radioactivity related jobs, etc. The report then describes actions required for the establishment of a nuclear fuel cycle, focusing on the procurement of uranium resources, establishment of a uranium enrichment process, reprocessing of spent fuel, application of recovered uranium, etc. Other activities are required for the development of new type reactors, effective application of plutonium, development of basic techniques, international contributions, cooperation with the public. Then, the report summarizes estimated costs required for the activities to be performed by the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute, Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation, National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Institute of Physical and Chemical Research. (N.K.)

  14. Estimating water equivalent snow depth from related meteorological variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steyaert, L.T.; LeDuc, S.K.; Strommen, N.D.; Nicodemus, M.L.; Guttman, N.B.

    1980-05-01

    Engineering design must take into consideration natural loads and stresses caused by meteorological elements, such as, wind, snow, precipitation and temperature. The purpose of this study was to determine a relationship of water equivalent snow depth measurements to meteorological variables. Several predictor models were evaluated for use in estimating water equivalent values. These models include linear regression, principal component regression, and non-linear regression models. Linear, non-linear and Scandanavian models are used to generate annual water equivalent estimates for approximately 1100 cooperative data stations where predictor variables are available, but which have no water equivalent measurements. These estimates are used to develop probability estimates of snow load for each station. Map analyses for 3 probability levels are presented

  15. Estimated Perennial Streams of Idaho and Related Geospatial Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rea, Alan; Skinner, Kenneth D.

    2009-01-01

    The perennial or intermittent status of a stream has bearing on many regulatory requirements. Because of changing technologies over time, cartographic representation of perennial/intermittent status of streams on U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) topographic maps is not always accurate and (or) consistent from one map sheet to another. Idaho Administrative Code defines an intermittent stream as one having a 7-day, 2-year low flow (7Q2) less than 0.1 cubic feet per second. To establish consistency with the Idaho Administrative Code, the USGS developed regional regression equations for Idaho streams for several low-flow statistics, including 7Q2. Using these regression equations, the 7Q2 streamflow may be estimated for naturally flowing streams anywhere in Idaho to help determine perennial/intermittent status of streams. Using these equations in conjunction with a Geographic Information System (GIS) technique known as weighted flow accumulation allows for an automated and continuous estimation of 7Q2 streamflow at all points along a stream, which in turn can be used to determine if a stream is intermittent or perennial according to the Idaho Administrative Code operational definition. The selected regression equations were applied to create continuous grids of 7Q2 estimates for the eight low-flow regression regions of Idaho. By applying the 0.1 ft3/s criterion, the perennial streams have been estimated in each low-flow region. Uncertainty in the estimates is shown by identifying a 'transitional' zone, corresponding to flow estimates of 0.1 ft3/s plus and minus one standard error. Considerable additional uncertainty exists in the model of perennial streams presented in this report. The regression models provide overall estimates based on general trends within each regression region. These models do not include local factors such as a large spring or a losing reach that may greatly affect flows at any given point. Site-specific flow data, assuming a sufficient period of

  16. Methodology for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer-Related Knowledge - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    The HINTS is designed to produce reliable estimates at the national and regional levels. GIS maps using HINTS data have been used to provide a visual representation of possible geographic relationships in HINTS cancer-related variables.

  17. State-Level Estimates of Cancer-Related Absenteeism Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangka, Florence K.; Trogdon, Justin G.; Nwaise, Isaac; Ekwueme, Donatus U.; Guy, Gery P.; Orenstein, Diane

    2016-01-01

    Background Cancer is one of the top five most costly diseases in the United States and leads to substantial work loss. Nevertheless, limited state-level estimates of cancer absenteeism costs have been published. Methods In analyses of data from the 2004–2008 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the 2004 National Nursing Home Survey, the U.S. Census Bureau for 2008, and the 2009 Current Population Survey, we used regression modeling to estimate annual state-level absenteeism costs attributable to cancer from 2004 to 2008. Results We estimated that the state-level median number of days of absenteeism per year among employed cancer patients was 6.1 days and that annual state-level cancer absenteeism costs ranged from $14.9 million to $915.9 million (median = $115.9 million) across states in 2010 dollars. Absenteeism costs are approximately 6.5% of the costs of premature cancer mortality. Conclusions The results from this study suggest that lost productivity attributable to cancer is a substantial cost to employees and employers and contributes to estimates of the overall impact of cancer in a state population. PMID:23969498

  18. The relative efficiency of three methods of estimating herbage mass ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The methods involved were randomly placed circular quadrats; randomly placed narrow strips; and disc meter sampling. Disc meter and quadrat sampling appear to be more efficient than strip sampling. In a subsequent small plot grazing trial the estimates of herbage mass, using the disc meter, had a consistent precision ...

  19. Effects of exposure estimation errors on estimated exposure-response relations for PM2.5.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2018-07-01

    Associations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure concentrations and a wide variety of undesirable outcomes, from autism and auto theft to elderly mortality, suicide, and violent crime, have been widely reported. Influential articles have argued that reducing National Ambient Air Quality Standards for PM2.5 is desirable to reduce these outcomes. Yet, other studies have found that reducing black smoke and other particulate matter by as much as 70% and dozens of micrograms per cubic meter has not detectably affected all-cause mortality rates even after decades, despite strong, statistically significant positive exposure concentration-response (C-R) associations between them. This paper examines whether this disconnect between association and causation might be explained in part by ignored estimation errors in estimated exposure concentrations. We use EPA air quality monitor data from the Los Angeles area of California to examine the shapes of estimated C-R functions for PM2.5 when the true C-R functions are assumed to be step functions with well-defined response thresholds. The estimated C-R functions mistakenly show risk as smoothly increasing with concentrations even well below the response thresholds, thus incorrectly predicting substantial risk reductions from reductions in concentrations that do not affect health risks. We conclude that ignored estimation errors obscure the shapes of true C-R functions, including possible thresholds, possibly leading to unrealistic predictions of the changes in risk caused by changing exposures. Instead of estimating improvements in public health per unit reduction (e.g., per 10 µg/m 3 decrease) in average PM2.5 concentrations, it may be essential to consider how interventions change the distributions of exposure concentrations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Improving Relative Combat Power Estimation: The Road to Victory

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-13

    was unthinkable before. Napoleon Bonaparte achieved a superior warfighting system compared to his opponents, which resulted in SOF. Napoleon’s...observations about combat power estimation and force empoloyment, remain valid. Napoleon also offered thoughts about combat power and superiority whe he...force. However, Napoleon did not think one- sidedly about the problem. He also said: “The moral is to the physical as three to one.”11 This dual

  1. Patient absorbed radiation doses estimation related to irradiation anatomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, Flavio Augusto Penna; Soares, Amanda Anastacio; Kahl, Gabrielly Gomes

    2014-01-01

    Developed a direct equation to estimate the absorbed dose to the patient in x-ray examinations, using electric, geometric parameters and filtering combined with data from irradiated anatomy. To determine the absorbed dose for each examination, the entrance skin dose (ESD) is adjusted to the thickness of the patient's specific anatomy. ESD is calculated from the estimated KERMA greatness in the air. Beer-Lambert equations derived from power data mass absorption coefficients obtained from the NIST / USA, were developed for each tissue: bone, muscle, fat and skin. Skin thickness was set at 2 mm and the bone was estimated in the central ray of the site, in the anteroposterior view. Because they are similar in density and attenuation coefficients, muscle and fat are treated as a single tissue. For evaluation of the full equations, we chose three different anatomies: chest, hand and thigh. Although complex in its shape, the equations simplify direct determination of absorbed dose from the characteristics of the equipment and patient. The input data is inserted at a single time and total absorbed dose (mGy) is calculated instantly. The average error, when compared with available data, is less than 5% in any combination of device data and exams. In calculating the dose for an exam and patient, the operator can choose the variables that will deposit less radiation to the patient through the prior analysis of each combination of variables, using the ALARA principle in routine diagnostic radiology sector

  2. METHODOLOGY RELATED TO ESTIMATION OF INVESTMENT APPEAL OF RURAL SETTLEMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Voshev

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Conditions for production activity vary considerably from region to region, from area to area, from settlement to settlement. In this connection, investors are challenged to choose an optimum site for a new enterprise. To make the decision, investors follow such references as: investment potential and risk level; their interrelation determines investment appeal of a country, region, area, city or rural settlement. At present Russia faces a problem of «black boxes» represented by a lot of rural settlements. No effective and suitable techniques of quantitative estimation of investment potential, rural settlement risks and systems to make the given information accessible for potential investors exist until now.

  3. Uncertainty in estimating and mitigating industrial related GHG emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Fadel, M.; Zeinati, M.; Ghaddar, N.; Mezher, T.

    2001-01-01

    Global climate change has been one of the challenging environmental concerns facing policy makers in the past decade. The characterization of the wide range of greenhouse gas emissions sources and sinks as well as their behavior in the atmosphere remains an on-going activity in many countries. Lebanon, being a signatory to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, is required to submit and regularly update a national inventory of greenhouse gas emissions sources and removals. Accordingly, an inventory of greenhouse gases from various sectors was conducted following the guidelines set by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The inventory indicated that the industrial sector contributes about 29% to the total greenhouse gas emissions divided between industrial processes and energy requirements at 12 and 17%, respectively. This paper describes major mitigation scenarios to reduce emissions from this sector based on associated technical, economic, environmental, and social characteristics. Economic ranking of these scenarios was conducted and uncertainty in emission factors used in the estimation process was emphasized. For this purpose, theoretical and experimental emission factors were used as alternatives to default factors recommended by the IPCC and the significance of resulting deviations in emission estimation is presented. (author)

  4. Heritability estimates for yield and related traits in bread wheat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Din, R.; Jehan, S.; Ibraullah, A.

    2009-01-01

    A set of 22 experimental wheat lines along with four check cultivars were evaluated in in-irrigated and unirrgated environments with objectives to determine genetic and phenotypic variation and heritability estimates for yield and its traits- The two environments were statistically at par for physiological maturity, plant height, spikes m/sub -2/. spike lets spike/sup -1/ and 1000-grain weight. Highly significant genetic variability existed among wheat lines (P < 0.0 I) in the combined analysis across two test environments for traits except 1000- grain weight. Genotypes x environment interactions were non-significant for traits indicating consistent performance of lines in two test environments. However lines and check cultivars were two to five days early in maturity under unirrigated environment. Plant height, spikes m/sup -2/ and 1000-grain weight also reduced under unirrigated environments. Genetic variances were greater than Environmental variances for most of traits- Heritability estimates were of higher magnitude (0.74 to 0.96) for plant height, medium (0.31 to 0.56) for physiological maturity. spikelets spike/sup -1/ (unirrigated) and 1000-grain weight, and low for spikes m/sup -2/. (author)

  5. Relative estimation of the mineral ages using uranium migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danis, A.

    1990-01-01

    Using the uranium fission track micro mapping technique the correlation between the age and uranium migration from inclusions was studied. It is shown that during geological time, as function of the mineral, its age and its uranium migration speed, the pattern of the track, clusters corresponding to the uranium inclusions got a typical feature. Thus for a bulk polished geological sample it is possible to establish an age succession of the constituent minerals as a function of the track cluster patterns. Also, it is shown that knowing the migration speed of the uranium in a mineral it is possible to estimate the age of this mineral by measuring the migration distance on the micro mapping. (Author)

  6. Analytical Estimation of Water-Oil Relative Permeabilities through Fractures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saboorian-Jooybari Hadi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Modeling multiphase flow through fractures is a key issue for understanding flow mechanism and performance prediction of fractured petroleum reservoirs, geothermal reservoirs, underground aquifers and carbon-dioxide sequestration. One of the most challenging subjects in modeling of fractured petroleum reservoirs is quantifying fluids competition for flow in fracture network (relative permeability curves. Unfortunately, there is no standard technique for experimental measurement of relative permeabilities through fractures and the existing methods are very expensive, time consuming and erroneous. Although, several formulations were presented to calculate fracture relative permeability curves in the form of linear and power functions of flowing fluids saturation, it is still unclear what form of relative permeability curves must be used for proper modeling of flow through fractures and consequently accurate reservoir simulation. Basically, the classic linear relative permeability (X-type curves are used in almost all of reservoir simulators. In this work, basic fluid flow equations are combined to develop a new simple analytical model for water-oil two phase flow in a single fracture. The model gives rise to simple analytic formulations for fracture relative permeabilities. The model explicitly proves that water-oil relative permeabilities in fracture network are functions of fluids saturation, viscosity ratio, fluids density, inclination of fracture plane from horizon, pressure gradient along fracture and rock matrix wettability, however they were considered to be only functions of saturations in the classic X-type and power (Corey [35] and Honarpour et al. [28, 29] models. Eventually, validity of the proposed formulations is checked against literature experimental data. The proposed fracture relative permeability functions have several advantages over the existing ones. Firstly, they are explicit functions of the parameters which are known for

  7. New Estimates of Numerical Values Related to a Simplex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail V. Nevskii

    2017-01-01

    if \\(\\xi_n=n.\\ This statement is valid only in one direction. There exists a simplex \\(S\\subset Q_5\\ such that the boundary of the simplex \\(5S\\ contains all the vertices of the cube \\(Q_5\\. We describe a one-parameter family of simplices contained in \\(Q_5\\ with the property \\(\\alpha(S=\\xi(S=5.\\ These simplices were found with the use of numerical and symbolic computations. %Numerical experiments allow to discover Another new result is an inequality \\(\\xi_6\\ <6.0166\\. %Прежняя оценка имела вид \\(6\\leq \\xi_6\\leq 6.6\\. We also systematize some of our estimates of numbers \\(\\xi_n\\, \\(\\theta_n\\, \\(\\varkappa_n\\ derived by~now. The symbol \\(\\theta_n\\ denotes the minimal norm of interpolation projection on the space of linear functions of \\(n\\ variables as~an~operator from \\(C(Q_n\\ to~\\(C(Q_n\\.

  8. Cross-property relations and permeability estimation in model porous media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, L.M.; Martys, N.; Bentz, D.P.; Garboczi, E.J.; Torquato, S.

    1993-01-01

    Results from a numerical study examining cross-property relations linking fluid permeability to diffusive and electrical properties are presented. Numerical solutions of the Stokes equations in three-dimensional consolidated granular packings are employed to provide a basis of comparison between different permeability estimates. Estimates based on the Λ parameter (a length derived from electrical conduction) and on d c (a length derived from immiscible displacement) are found to be considerably more reliable than estimates based on rigorous permeability bounds related to pore space diffusion. We propose two hybrid relations based on diffusion which provide more accurate estimates than either of the rigorous permeability bounds

  9. Estimators of the Relations of Equivalence, Tolerance and Preference Based on Pairwise Comparisons with Random Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leszek Klukowski

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a review of results of the author in the area of estimation of the relations of equivalence, tolerance and preference within a finite set based on multiple, independent (in a stochastic way pairwise comparisons with random errors, in binary and multivalent forms. These estimators require weaker assumptions than those used in the literature on the subject. Estimates of the relations are obtained based on solutions to problems from discrete optimization. They allow application of both types of comparisons - binary and multivalent (this fact relates to the tolerance and preference relations. The estimates can be verified in a statistical way; in particular, it is possible to verify the type of the relation. The estimates have been applied by the author to problems regarding forecasting, financial engineering and bio-cybernetics. (original abstract

  10. MSP-tool : A VBA-based software tool for the analysis of multispecimen paleointensity data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Monster, Marilyn W L; de Groot, Lennart V.; Dekkers, Mark J.

    2015-01-01

    The multispecimen protocol (MSP) is a method to estimate the Earth's magnetic field's past strength from volcanic rocks or archeological materials. By reducing the amount of heating steps and aligning the specimens parallel to the applied field, thermochemical alteration and multi-domain effects are

  11. Oscillation estimates relative to p-homogeneous forms and Kato measures data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Biroli

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available We state pointwise estimate for the positive subsolutions associated to a p-homogeneous form and nonnegative Radon measures data. As a by-product we establish an oscillation’s estimate for the solutions relative to Kato measures data.

  12. Estimates of the relative specific yield of aquifers from geo-electrical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper discusses a method of estimating aquifer specific yield based on surface resistivity sounding measurements supplemented with data on water conductivity. The practical aim of the method is to suggest a parallel low cost method of estimating aquifer properties. The starting point is the Archie's law, which relates ...

  13. An estimator for the relative entropy rate of path measures for stochastic differential equations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Opper, Manfred, E-mail: manfred.opper@tu-berlin.de

    2017-02-01

    We address the problem of estimating the relative entropy rate (RER) for two stochastic processes described by stochastic differential equations. For the case where the drift of one process is known analytically, but one has only observations from the second process, we use a variational bound on the RER to construct an estimator.

  14. Absolute Monotonicity of Functions Related To Estimates of First Eigenvalue of Laplace Operator on Riemannian Manifolds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Qi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The authors find the absolute monotonicity and complete monotonicity of some functions involving trigonometric functions and related to estimates the lower bounds of the first eigenvalue of Laplace operator on Riemannian manifolds.

  15. Significance of relative velocity in drag force or drag power estimation for a tethered float

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vethamony, P.; Sastry, J.S.

    There is difference in opinion regarding the use of relative velocity instead of particle velocity alone in the estimation of drag force or power. In the present study, a tethered spherical float which undergoes oscillatory motion in regular waves...

  16. ESTIMATION OF THE KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVER EFFECTS BETWEEN FIRMS IN BIO-RELATED INDUSTRIES

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Hanho; Kim, Jae-Kyung

    2005-01-01

    Knowledge spillover is a kind of externality originating from imperfect appropriation of R&D performances, which implies that the knowledge created by one agent could be transmitted to other related agents by affecting their R&D or other economic performances. For the estimation of knowledge spillover effects based on firm-level patent data between firms in bio-related industries, patents production function, as a proxy of knowledge production function, is formulated and estimated. Knowledge ...

  17. Accurate relative location estimates for the North Korean nuclear tests using empirical slowness corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbons, S. J.; Pabian, F.; Näsholm, S. P.; Kværna, T.; Mykkeltveit, S.

    2017-01-01

    Declared North Korean nuclear tests in 2006, 2009, 2013 and 2016 were observed seismically at regional and teleseismic distances. Waveform similarity allows the events to be located relatively with far greater accuracy than the absolute locations can be determined from seismic data alone. There is now significant redundancy in the data given the large number of regional and teleseismic stations that have recorded multiple events, and relative location estimates can be confirmed independently by performing calculations on many mutually exclusive sets of measurements. Using a 1-D global velocity model, the distances between the events estimated using teleseismic P phases are found to be approximately 25 per cent shorter than the distances between events estimated using regional Pn phases. The 2009, 2013 and 2016 events all take place within 1 km of each other and the discrepancy between the regional and teleseismic relative location estimates is no more than about 150 m. The discrepancy is much more significant when estimating the location of the more distant 2006 event relative to the later explosions with regional and teleseismic estimates varying by many hundreds of metres. The relative location of the 2006 event is challenging given the smaller number of observing stations, the lower signal-to-noise ratio and significant waveform dissimilarity at some regional stations. The 2006 event is however highly significant in constraining the absolute locations in the terrain at the Punggye-ri test-site in relation to observed surface infrastructure. For each seismic arrival used to estimate the relative locations, we define a slowness scaling factor which multiplies the gradient of seismic traveltime versus distance, evaluated at the source, relative to the applied 1-D velocity model. A procedure for estimating correction terms which reduce the double-difference time residual vector norms is presented together with a discussion of the associated uncertainty. The modified

  18. Calibrated Tully-Fisher relations for improved estimates of disc rotation velocities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reyes, R.; Mandelbaum, R.; Gunn, J. E.; Pizagno II, Jim; Lackner, C. N.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we derive scaling relations between photometric observable quantities and disc galaxy rotation velocity V-rot or Tully-Fisher relations (TFRs). Our methodology is dictated by our purpose of obtaining purely photometric, minimal-scatter estimators of V-rot applicable to large galaxy

  19. The estimation of differential counting measurements of possitive quantities with relatively large statistical errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vincent, C.H.

    1982-01-01

    Bayes' principle is applied to the differential counting measurement of a positive quantity in which the statistical errors are not necessarily small in relation to the true value of the quantity. The methods of estimation derived are found to give consistent results and to avoid the anomalous negative estimates sometimes obtained by conventional methods. One of the methods given provides a simple means of deriving the required estimates from conventionally presented results and appears to have wide potential applications. Both methods provide the actual posterior probability distribution of the quantity to be measured. A particularly important potential application is the correction of counts on low radioacitvity samples for background. (orig.)

  20. Group-Contribution based Property Estimation and Uncertainty analysis for Flammability-related Properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frutiger, Jerome; Marcarie, Camille; Abildskov, Jens

    2016-01-01

    regression and outlier treatment have been applied to achieve high accuracy. Furthermore, linear error propagation based on covariance matrix of estimated parameters was performed. Therefore, every estimated property value of the flammability-related properties is reported together with its corresponding 95......%-confidence interval of the prediction. Compared to existing models the developed ones have a higher accuracy, are simple to apply and provide uncertainty information on the calculated prediction. The average relative error and correlation coefficient are 11.5% and 0.99 for LFL, 15.9% and 0.91 for UFL, 2...

  1. A Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Vocal-Tract-Related Filter Characteristics for Single Channel Speech Separation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dansereau Richard M

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a new technique for separating two speech signals from a single recording. The proposed method bridges the gap between underdetermined blind source separation techniques and those techniques that model the human auditory system, that is, computational auditory scene analysis (CASA. For this purpose, we decompose the speech signal into the excitation signal and the vocal-tract-related filter and then estimate the components from the mixed speech using a hybrid model. We first express the probability density function (PDF of the mixed speech's log spectral vectors in terms of the PDFs of the underlying speech signal's vocal-tract-related filters. Then, the mean vectors of PDFs of the vocal-tract-related filters are obtained using a maximum likelihood estimator given the mixed signal. Finally, the estimated vocal-tract-related filters along with the extracted fundamental frequencies are used to reconstruct estimates of the individual speech signals. The proposed technique effectively adds vocal-tract-related filter characteristics as a new cue to CASA models using a new grouping technique based on an underdetermined blind source separation. We compare our model with both an underdetermined blind source separation and a CASA method. The experimental results show that our model outperforms both techniques in terms of SNR improvement and the percentage of crosstalk suppression.

  2. A Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Vocal-Tract-Related Filter Characteristics for Single Channel Speech Separation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad H. Radfar

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available We present a new technique for separating two speech signals from a single recording. The proposed method bridges the gap between underdetermined blind source separation techniques and those techniques that model the human auditory system, that is, computational auditory scene analysis (CASA. For this purpose, we decompose the speech signal into the excitation signal and the vocal-tract-related filter and then estimate the components from the mixed speech using a hybrid model. We first express the probability density function (PDF of the mixed speech's log spectral vectors in terms of the PDFs of the underlying speech signal's vocal-tract-related filters. Then, the mean vectors of PDFs of the vocal-tract-related filters are obtained using a maximum likelihood estimator given the mixed signal. Finally, the estimated vocal-tract-related filters along with the extracted fundamental frequencies are used to reconstruct estimates of the individual speech signals. The proposed technique effectively adds vocal-tract-related filter characteristics as a new cue to CASA models using a new grouping technique based on an underdetermined blind source separation. We compare our model with both an underdetermined blind source separation and a CASA method. The experimental results show that our model outperforms both techniques in terms of SNR improvement and the percentage of crosstalk suppression.

  3. Relation of whole blood carboxyhemoglobin concentration to ambient carbon monoxide exposure estimated using regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudra, Carole B; Williams, Michelle A; Sheppard, Lianne; Koenig, Jane Q; Schiff, Melissa A; Frederick, Ihunnaya O; Dills, Russell

    2010-04-15

    Exposure to carbon monoxide (CO) and other ambient air pollutants is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. While there are several methods of estimating CO exposure, few have been evaluated against exposure biomarkers. The authors examined the relation between estimated CO exposure and blood carboxyhemoglobin concentration in 708 pregnant western Washington State women (1996-2004). Carboxyhemoglobin was measured in whole blood drawn around 13 weeks' gestation. CO exposure during the month of blood draw was estimated using a regression model containing predictor terms for year, month, street and population densities, and distance to the nearest major road. Year and month were the strongest predictors. Carboxyhemoglobin level was correlated with estimated CO exposure (rho = 0.22, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.15, 0.29). After adjustment for covariates, each 10% increase in estimated exposure was associated with a 1.12% increase in median carboxyhemoglobin level (95% CI: 0.54, 1.69). This association remained after exclusion of 286 women who reported smoking or being exposed to secondhand smoke (rho = 0.24). In this subgroup, the median carboxyhemoglobin concentration increased 1.29% (95% CI: 0.67, 1.91) for each 10% increase in CO exposure. Monthly estimated CO exposure was moderately correlated with an exposure biomarker. These results support the validity of this regression model for estimating ambient CO exposures in this population and geographic setting.

  4. Using field feedback to estimate failure rates of safety-related systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brissaud, Florent

    2017-01-01

    The IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 functional safety standards encourage the use of field feedback to estimate the failure rates of safety-related systems, which is preferred than generic data. In some cases (if “Route 2_H” is adopted for the 'hardware safety integrity constraints”), this is even a requirement. This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals, depending if the failures are detected on-line (called 'detected failures', e.g. by automatic diagnostic tests) or only revealed by proof tests (called 'undetected failures'). Examples show that for the same duration and number of failures observed, the estimated failure rates are basically higher for “undetected failures” because, in this case, the duration observed includes intervals of time where it is unknown that the elements have failed. This points out the need of using a proper approach for failure rates estimation, especially for failures that are not detected on-line. Then, this paper proposes an approach to use the estimated failure rates, with their uncertainties, for PFDavg and PFH assessment with upper confidence bounds, in accordance with IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 requirements. Examples finally show that the highest SIL that can be claimed for a safety function can be limited by the 90% upper confidence bound of PFDavg or PFH. The requirements of the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 relating to the data collection and analysis should therefore be properly considered for the study of all safety-related systems. - Highlights: • This paper deals with requirements of the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 for using field feedback to estimate failure rates of safety-related systems. • This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals for failures that are detected on-line. • This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals for failures that are only revealed by

  5. Human comfort and self-estimated performance in relation to indoor environmental parameters and building features

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frontczak, Monika Joanna

    The main objective of the Ph.D. study was to examine occupants’ perception of comfort and self-estimated job performance in non-industrial buildings (homes and offices), in particular how building occupants understand comfort and which parameters, not necessarily related to indoor environments...... and storage, noise level and visual privacy. However, if job performance is considered, then satisfaction with the main indoor environmental parameters should be addressed first as they affected self-estimated job performance to the highest extent. The present study showed that overall satisfaction...... with personal workspace affected significantly the self-estimated job performance. Increasing overall satisfaction with the personal workspace by about 15% would correspond to an increase of self-estimated job performance by 3.7%. Among indoor environmental parameters and building features, satisfaction...

  6. Estimating one's own and one's relatives' multiple intelligence: a study from Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furnham, Adrian; Chamorro-Premuzic, Tomas

    2005-05-01

    Participants from Argentina (N = 217) estimated their own, their partner's, their parents' and their grandparents' overall and multiple intelligences. The Argentinean data showed that men gave higher overall estimates than women (M = 110.4 vs. 105.1) as well as higher estimates on mathematical and spatial intelligence. Participants thought themselves slightly less bright than their fathers (2 IQ points) but brighter than their mothers (6 points), their grandfathers (8 points), but especially their grandmothers (11 points). Regressions showed that participants thought verbal and mathematical IQ to be the best predictors of overall IQ. Results were broadly in agreement with other studies in the area. A comparison was also made with British data using the same questionnaire. British participants tended to give significantly higher self-estimates than for relatives, though the pattern was generally similar. Results are discussed in terms of the studies in the field.

  7. Estimation of salient regions related to chronic gastritis using gastric X-ray images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Togo, Ren; Ishihara, Kenta; Ogawa, Takahiro; Haseyama, Miki

    2016-10-01

    Since technical knowledge and a high degree of experience are necessary for diagnosis of chronic gastritis, computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems that analyze gastric X-ray images are desirable in the field of medicine. Therefore, a new method that estimates salient regions related to chronic gastritis/non-gastritis for supporting diagnosis is presented in this paper. In order to estimate salient regions related to chronic gastritis/non-gastritis, the proposed method monitors the distance between a target image feature and Support Vector Machine (SVM)-based hyperplane for its classification. Furthermore, our method realizes removal of the influence of regions outside the stomach by using positional relationships between the stomach and other organs. Consequently, since the proposed method successfully estimates salient regions of gastric X-ray images for which chronic gastritis and non-gastritis are unknown, visual support for inexperienced clinicians becomes feasible. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Surgical Care Required for Populations Affected by Climate-related Natural Disasters: A Global Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eugenia E; Stewart, Barclay; Zha, Yuanting A; Groen, Thomas A; Burkle, Frederick M; Kushner, Adam L

    2016-08-10

    Climate extremes will increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters worldwide.  Climate-related natural disasters were anticipated to affect 375 million people in 2015, more than 50% greater than the yearly average in the previous decade. To inform surgical assistance preparedness, we estimated the number of surgical procedures needed.   The numbers of people affected by climate-related disasters from 2004 to 2014 were obtained from the Centre for Research of the Epidemiology of Disasters database. Using 5,000 procedures per 100,000 persons as the minimum, baseline estimates were calculated. A linear regression of the number of surgical procedures performed annually and the estimated number of surgical procedures required for climate-related natural disasters was performed. Approximately 140 million people were affected by climate-related natural disasters annually requiring 7.0 million surgical procedures. The greatest need for surgical care was in the People's Republic of China, India, and the Philippines. Linear regression demonstrated a poor relationship between national surgical capacity and estimated need for surgical care resulting from natural disaster, but countries with the least surgical capacity will have the greatest need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. As climate extremes increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters, millions will need surgical care beyond baseline needs. Countries with insufficient surgical capacity will have the most need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Estimates of surgical are particularly important for countries least equipped to meet surgical care demands given critical human and physical resource deficiencies.

  9. Regression estimators for generic health-related quality of life and quality-adjusted life years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Anirban; Manca, Andrea

    2012-01-01

    To develop regression models for outcomes with truncated supports, such as health-related quality of life (HRQoL) data, and account for features typical of such data such as a skewed distribution, spikes at 1 or 0, and heteroskedasticity. Regression estimators based on features of the Beta distribution. First, both a single equation and a 2-part model are presented, along with estimation algorithms based on maximum-likelihood, quasi-likelihood, and Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods. A novel Bayesian quasi-likelihood estimator is proposed. Second, a simulation exercise is presented to assess the performance of the proposed estimators against ordinary least squares (OLS) regression for a variety of HRQoL distributions that are encountered in practice. Finally, the performance of the proposed estimators is assessed by using them to quantify the treatment effect on QALYs in the EVALUATE hysterectomy trial. Overall model fit is studied using several goodness-of-fit tests such as Pearson's correlation test, link and reset tests, and a modified Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The simulation results indicate that the proposed methods are more robust in estimating covariate effects than OLS, especially when the effects are large or the HRQoL distribution has a large spike at 1. Quasi-likelihood techniques are more robust than maximum likelihood estimators. When applied to the EVALUATE trial, all but the maximum likelihood estimators produce unbiased estimates of the treatment effect. One and 2-part Beta regression models provide flexible approaches to regress the outcomes with truncated supports, such as HRQoL, on covariates, after accounting for many idiosyncratic features of the outcomes distribution. This work will provide applied researchers with a practical set of tools to model outcomes in cost-effectiveness analysis.

  10. Estimation of unknown nuclear masses by means of the generalized mass relations. Pt. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popa, S.M.

    1980-01-01

    A survey of the estimations of the unknown nuclear masses by means of the generalized mass relations is presented. One discusses the new hypotheses supplementing the original general Garvey-Kelson scheme, reviewing the generalized mass relations and formulae, according to the present status of this new formalism. A critical discussions is given of the reliability of these new Garvey-Kelson type extrapolation procedures. (author)

  11. ESTIMATION OF INTRINSIC AND EXTRINSIC ENVIRONMENT FACTORS OF AGE-RELATED TOOTH COLOUR CHANGES

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hyšpler, P.; Jezbera, D.; Fürst, T.; Mikšík, Ivan; Waclawek, M.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 4 (2010), s. 515-525 ISSN 1898-6196 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50110509 Keywords : age-related colour changes of teeth * intrinsic and extrinsic factors * 3D mathematical regression models * estimation of real age Subject RIV: ED - Physiology Impact factor: 0.294, year: 2010

  12. Performance of the modified Poisson regression approach for estimating relative risks from clustered prospective data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yelland, Lisa N; Salter, Amy B; Ryan, Philip

    2011-10-15

    Modified Poisson regression, which combines a log Poisson regression model with robust variance estimation, is a useful alternative to log binomial regression for estimating relative risks. Previous studies have shown both analytically and by simulation that modified Poisson regression is appropriate for independent prospective data. This method is often applied to clustered prospective data, despite a lack of evidence to support its use in this setting. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the performance of the modified Poisson regression approach for estimating relative risks from clustered prospective data, by using generalized estimating equations to account for clustering. A simulation study is conducted to compare log binomial regression and modified Poisson regression for analyzing clustered data from intervention and observational studies. Both methods generally perform well in terms of bias, type I error, and coverage. Unlike log binomial regression, modified Poisson regression is not prone to convergence problems. The methods are contrasted by using example data sets from 2 large studies. The results presented in this article support the use of modified Poisson regression as an alternative to log binomial regression for analyzing clustered prospective data when clustering is taken into account by using generalized estimating equations.

  13. Kernel PLS Estimation of Single-trial Event-related Potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosipal, Roman; Trejo, Leonard J.

    2004-01-01

    Nonlinear kernel partial least squaes (KPLS) regressior, is a novel smoothing approach to nonparametric regression curve fitting. We have developed a KPLS approach to the estimation of single-trial event related potentials (ERPs). For improved accuracy of estimation, we also developed a local KPLS method for situations in which there exists prior knowledge about the approximate latency of individual ERP components. To assess the utility of the KPLS approach, we compared non-local KPLS and local KPLS smoothing with other nonparametric signal processing and smoothing methods. In particular, we examined wavelet denoising, smoothing splines, and localized smoothing splines. We applied these methods to the estimation of simulated mixtures of human ERPs and ongoing electroencephalogram (EEG) activity using a dipole simulator (BESA). In this scenario we considered ongoing EEG to represent spatially and temporally correlated noise added to the ERPs. This simulation provided a reasonable but simplified model of real-world ERP measurements. For estimation of the simulated single-trial ERPs, local KPLS provided a level of accuracy that was comparable with or better than the other methods. We also applied the local KPLS method to the estimation of human ERPs recorded in an experiment on co,onitive fatigue. For these data, the local KPLS method provided a clear improvement in visualization of single-trial ERPs as well as their averages. The local KPLS method may serve as a new alternative to the estimation of single-trial ERPs and improvement of ERP averages.

  14. Validation of generic cost estimates for construction-related activities at nuclear power plants: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simion, G.; Sciacca, F.; Claiborne, E.; Watlington, B.; Riordan, B.; McLaughlin, M.

    1988-05-01

    This report represents a validation study of the cost methodologies and quantitative factors derived in Labor Productivity Adjustment Factors and Generic Methodology for Estimating the Labor Cost Associated with the Removal of Hardware, Materials, and Structures From Nuclear Power Plants. This cost methodology was developed to support NRC analysts in determining generic estimates of removal, installation, and total labor costs for construction-related activities at nuclear generating stations. In addition to the validation discussion, this report reviews the generic cost analysis methodology employed. It also discusses each of the individual cost factors used in estimating the costs of physical modifications at nuclear power plants. The generic estimating approach presented uses the /open quotes/greenfield/close quotes/ or new plant construction installation costs compiled in the Energy Economic Data Base (EEDB) as a baseline. These baseline costs are then adjusted to account for labor productivity, radiation fields, learning curve effects, and impacts on ancillary systems or components. For comparisons of estimated vs actual labor costs, approximately four dozen actual cost data points (as reported by 14 nuclear utilities) were obtained. Detailed background information was collected on each individual data point to give the best understanding possible so that the labor productivity factors, removal factors, etc., could judiciously be chosen. This study concludes that cost estimates that are typically within 40% of the actual values can be generated by prudently using the methodologies and cost factors investigated herein

  15. Estimated Prestroke Peak VO2 Is Related to Circulating IGF-1 Levels During Acute Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattlage, Anna E; Rippee, Michael A; Abraham, Michael G; Sandt, Janice; Billinger, Sandra A

    2017-01-01

    Background Insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) is neuroprotective after stroke and is regulated by insulin-like binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3). In healthy individuals, exercise and improved aerobic fitness (peak oxygen uptake; peak VO 2 ) increases IGF-1 in circulation. Understanding the relationship between estimated prestroke aerobic fitness and IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 after stroke may provide insight into the benefits of exercise and aerobic fitness on stroke recovery. Objective The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship of IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 to estimated prestroke peak VO 2 in individuals with acute stroke. We hypothesized that (1) estimated prestroke peak VO 2 would be related to IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 and (2) individuals with higher than median IGF-1 levels will have higher estimated prestroke peak VO 2 compared to those with lower than median levels. Methods Fifteen individuals with acute stroke had blood sampled within 72 hours of hospital admission. Prestroke peak VO 2 was estimated using a nonexercise prediction equation. IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 levels were quantified using enzyme-linked immunoassay. Results Estimated prestroke peak VO 2 was significantly related to circulating IGF-1 levels (r = .60; P = .02) but not IGFBP-3. Individuals with higher than median IGF-1 (117.9 ng/mL) had significantly better estimated aerobic fitness (32.4 ± 6.9 mL kg -1 min -1 ) than those with lower than median IGF-1 (20.7 ± 7.8 mL kg -1 min -1 ; P = .03). Conclusions Improving aerobic fitness prior to stroke may be beneficial by increasing baseline IGF-1 levels. These results set the groundwork for future clinical trials to determine whether high IGF-1 and aerobic fitness are beneficial to stroke recovery by providing neuroprotection and improving function. © The Author(s) 2016.

  16. Absolute magnitude estimation and relative judgement approaches to subjective workload assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidulich, Michael A.; Tsang, Pamela S.

    1987-01-01

    Two rating scale techniques employing an absolute magnitude estimation method, were compared to a relative judgment method for assessing subjective workload. One of the absolute estimation techniques used was an unidimensional overall workload scale and the other was the multidimensional NASA-Task Load Index technique. Thomas Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process was the unidimensional relative judgment method used. These techniques were used to assess the subjective workload of various single- and dual-tracking conditions. The validity of the techniques was defined as their ability to detect the same phenomena observed in the tracking performance. Reliability was assessed by calculating test-retest correlations. Within the context of the experiment, the Saaty Analytic Hierarchy Process was found to be superior in validity and reliability. These findings suggest that the relative judgment method would be an effective addition to the currently available subjective workload assessment techniques.

  17. Fast Kalman Filtering for Relative Spacecraft Position and Attitude Estimation for the Raven ISS Hosted Payload

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galante, Joseph M.; Van Eepoel, John; D'Souza, Chris; Patrick, Bryan

    2016-01-01

    The Raven ISS Hosted Payload will feature several pose measurement sensors on a pan/tilt gimbal which will be used to autonomously track resupply vehicles as they approach and depart the International Space Station. This paper discusses the derivation of a Relative Navigation Filter (RNF) to fuse measurements from the different pose measurement sensors to produce relative position and attitude estimates. The RNF relies on relative translation and orientation kinematics and careful pose sensor modeling to eliminate dependence on orbital position information and associated orbital dynamics models. The filter state is augmented with sensor biases to provide a mechanism for the filter to estimate and mitigate the offset between the measurements from different pose sensors

  18. The Prevalence of Age-Related Eye Diseases and Visual Impairment in Aging: Current Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Ronald; Klein, Barbara E. K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose. To examine prevalence of five age-related eye conditions (age-related cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy [DR], and visual impairment) in the United States. Methods. Review of published scientific articles and unpublished research findings. Results. Cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, DR, and visual impairment prevalences are high in four different studies of these conditions, especially in people over 75 years of age. There are disparities among racial/ethnic groups with higher age-specific prevalence of DR, open-angle glaucoma, and visual impairment in Hispanics and blacks compared with whites, higher prevalence of age-related cataract in whites compared with blacks, and higher prevalence of late AMD in whites compared with Hispanics and blacks. The estimates are based on old data and do not reflect recent changes in the distribution of age and race/ethnicity in the United States population. There are no epidemiologic estimates of prevalence for many visually-impairing conditions. Conclusions. Ongoing prevalence surveys designed to provide reliable estimates of visual impairment, AMD, age-related cataract, open-angle glaucoma, and DR are needed. It is important to collect objective data on these and other conditions that affect vision and quality of life in order to plan for health care needs and identify areas for further research. PMID:24335069

  19. Estimating small area health-related characteristics of populations: a methodological review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azizur Rahman

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of health-related characteristics at a fine local geographic level is vital for effective health promotion programmes, provision of better health services and population-specific health planning and management. Lack of a micro-dataset readily available for attributes of individuals at small areas negatively impacts the ability of local and national agencies to manage serious health issues and related risks in the community. A solution to this challenge would be to develop a method that simulates reliable small-area statistics. This paper provides a significant appraisal of the methodologies for estimating health-related characteristics of populations at geographical limited areas. Findings reveal that a range of methodologies are in use, which can be classified as three distinct set of approaches: i indirect standardisation and individual level modelling; ii multilevel statistical modelling; and iii micro-simulation modelling. Although each approach has its own strengths and weaknesses, it appears that microsimulation- based spatial models have significant robustness over the other methods and also represent a more precise means of estimating health-related population characteristics over small areas.

  20. The application of particle filters in single trial event-related potential estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohseni, Hamid R; Nazarpour, Kianoush; Sanei, Saeid; Wilding, Edward L

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, an approach for the estimation of single trial event-related potentials (ST-ERPs) using particle filters (PFs) is presented. The method is based on recursive Bayesian mean square estimation of ERP wavelet coefficients using their previous estimates as prior information. To enable a performance evaluation of the approach in the Gaussian and non-Gaussian distributed noise conditions, we added Gaussian white noise (GWN) and real electroencephalogram (EEG) signals recorded during rest to the simulated ERPs. The results were compared to that of the Kalman filtering (KF) approach demonstrating the robustness of the PF over the KF to the added GWN noise. The proposed method also outperforms the KF when the assumption about the Gaussianity of the noise is violated. We also applied this technique to real EEG potentials recorded in an odd-ball paradigm and investigated the correlation between the amplitude and the latency of the estimated ERP components. Unlike the KF method, for the PF there was a statistically significant negative correlation between amplitude and latency of the estimated ERPs, matching previous neurophysiological findings

  1. Worldwide F(ST) estimates relative to five continental-scale populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Christopher D; Court, Denise Syndercombe; Balding, David J

    2014-11-01

    We estimate the population genetics parameter FST (also referred to as the fixation index) from short tandem repeat (STR) allele frequencies, comparing many worldwide human subpopulations at approximately the national level with continental-scale populations. FST is commonly used to measure population differentiation, and is important in forensic DNA analysis to account for remote shared ancestry between a suspect and an alternative source of the DNA. We estimate FST comparing subpopulations with a hypothetical ancestral population, which is the approach most widely used in population genetics, and also compare a subpopulation with a sampled reference population, which is more appropriate for forensic applications. Both estimation methods are likelihood-based, in which FST is related to the variance of the multinomial-Dirichlet distribution for allele counts. Overall, we find low FST values, with posterior 97.5 percentiles estimates, and are also about half the magnitude of STR-based estimates from population genetics surveys that focus on distinct ethnic groups rather than a general population. Our findings support the use of FST up to 3% in forensic calculations, which corresponds to some current practice.

  2. Estimation of baseline lifetime risk of developed cancer related to radiation exposure in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xiaoliang; Niu Haowei; Sun Quanfu; Ma Weidong

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To introduce the general international method for estimation of lifetime risk of developed cancer, and to estimate the lifetime risk baseline values of several kinds of cancers related to radiation exposures in China. Methods: The risk estimation was based on the data from Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report (2010) and China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook (2009), and made according to the method previously published by National Cancer Institute (NCI) in USA. Results: The lifetime risk of all cancer in China in 2007 was estimated to be 27.77%, that of lung cancer 5.96%, that of breast cancer for female 3.34%, that of all leukemia 0.14%, that of thyroid cancer 0.37%. The lifetime risks of all cancer were estimated to be 32.74% for males and 24.73% for females, and that was 36.47% for urban residents and 26.79% for rural people. Conclusions: The lifetime risk of all cancer for males in 2007 was about 1.25 times as much as that for females. The value of all cancer for urban residents was about 1.35 times as much as that for rural residents. The lifetime risk of developed cancers in 2007 in China is lower than that in the developed countries,such as Japan. (authors)

  3. How Do Different Aspects of Spatial Skills Relate to Early Arithmetic and Number Line Estimation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Véronique Cornu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigated the predictive role of spatial skills for arithmetic and number line estimation in kindergarten children (N = 125. Spatial skills are known to be related to mathematical development, but due to the construct’s non-unitary nature, different aspects of spatial skills need to be differentiated. In the present study, a spatial orientation task, a spatial visualization task and visuo-motor integration task were administered to assess three different aspects of spatial skills. Furthermore, we assessed counting abilities, knowledge of Arabic numerals, quantitative knowledge, as well as verbal working memory and verbal intelligence in kindergarten. Four months later, the same children performed an arithmetic and a number line estimation task to evaluate how the abilities measured at Time 1 predicted early mathematics outcomes. Hierarchical regression analysis revealed that children’s performance in arithmetic was predicted by their performance on the spatial orientation and visuo-motor integration task, as well as their knowledge of the Arabic numerals. Performance in number line estimation was significantly predicted by the children’s spatial orientation performance. Our findings emphasize the role of spatial skills, notably spatial orientation, in mathematical development. The relation between spatial orientation and arithmetic was partially mediated by the number line estimation task. Our results further show that some aspects of spatial skills might be more predictive of mathematical development than others, underlining the importance to differentiate within the construct of spatial skills when it comes to understanding numerical development.

  4. Clonal diversity and estimation of relative clone age: application to agrobiodiversity of yam (Dioscorea rotundata).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarcelli, Nora; Couderc, Marie; Baco, Mohamed N; Egah, Janvier; Vigouroux, Yves

    2013-11-13

    Clonal propagation is a particular reproductive system found in both the plant and animal kingdoms, from human parasites to clonally propagated crops. Clonal diversity provides information about plant and animal evolutionary history, i.e. how clones spread, or the age of a particular clone. In plants, this could provide valuable information about agrobiodiversity dynamics and more broadly about the evolutionary history of a particular crop. We studied the evolutionary history of yam, Dioscorea rotundata. In Africa, Yam is cultivated by tuber clonal propagation. We used 12 microsatellite markers to identify intra-clonal diversity in yam varieties. We then used this diversity to assess the relative ages of clones. Using simulations, we assessed how Approximate Bayesian Computation could use clonal diversity to estimate the age of a clone depending on the size of the sample, the number of independent samples and the number of markers. We then applied this approach to our particular dataset and showed that the relative ages of varieties could be estimated, and that each variety could be ranked by age. We give a first estimation of clone age in an approximate Bayesian framework. However the precise estimation of clone age depends on the precision of the mutation rate. We provide useful information on agrobiodiversity dynamics and suggest recurrent creation of varietal diversity in a clonally propagated crop.

  5. Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

    1988-03-01

    This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

  6. Language Adaptation for Extending Post-Editing Estimates for Closely Related Languages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rios Miguel

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an open-source toolkit for predicting human post-editing efforts for closely related languages. At the moment, training resources for the Quality Estimation task are available for very few language directions and domains. Available resources can be expanded on the assumption that MT errors and the amount of post-editing required to correct them are comparable across related languages, even if the feature frequencies differ. In this paper we report a toolkit for achieving language adaptation, which is based on learning new feature representation using transfer learning methods. In particular, we report performance of a method based on Self-Taught Learning which adapts the English-Spanish pair to produce Quality Estimation models for translation from English into Portuguese, Italian and other Romance languages using the publicly available Autodesk dataset.

  7. Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer-Related Knowledge - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

  8. Bone strength estimates relative to vertical ground reaction force discriminates women runners with stress fracture history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popp, Kristin L; McDermott, William; Hughes, Julie M; Baxter, Stephanie A; Stovitz, Steven D; Petit, Moira A

    2017-01-01

    To determine differences in bone geometry, estimates of bone strength, muscle size and bone strength relative to load, in women runners with and without a history of stress fracture. We recruited 32 competitive distance runners aged 18-35, with (SFX, n=16) or without (NSFX, n=16) a history of stress fracture for this case-control study. Peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) was used to assess volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD, mg/mm 3 ), total (ToA) and cortical (CtA) bone areas (mm 2 ), and estimated compressive bone strength (bone strength index; BSI, mg/mm 4 ) at the distal tibia. ToA, CtA, cortical vBMD, and estimated strength (section modulus; Zp, mm 3 and strength strain index; SSIp, mm 3 ) were measured at six cortical sites along the tibia. Mean active peak vertical (pkZ) ground reaction forces (GRFs), assessed from a fatigue run on an instrumented treadmill, were used in conjunction with pQCT measurements to estimate bone strength relative to load (mm 2 /N∗kg -1 ) at all cortical sites. SSIp and Zp were 9-11% lower in the SFX group at mid-shaft of the tibia, while ToA and vBMD did not differ between groups at any measurement site. The SFX group had 11-17% lower bone strength relative to mean pkZ GRFs (phistory of stress fracture. Bone strength relative to load is also lower in this same region suggesting that strength deficits in the middle 1/3 of the tibia and altered gait biomechanics may predispose an individual to stress fracture. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  9. Relative pollen productivity estimates in the modern agricultural landscape of Central Bohemia (Czech Republic)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Abraham, V.; Kozáková, Radka

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 179, JUL 1 (2012), s. 1-12 ISSN 0034-6667 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAAX00020701; GA AV ČR IAAX00050801 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z80020508 Keywords : relative pollen productivity estimates * Central Bohemia * moss polsters * pollen-vegetation relationship * relevant source area of pollen Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.933, year: 2012

  10. Human comfort and self-estimated performance in relation to indoor environmental parameters and building features

    OpenAIRE

    Frontczak, Monika Joanna; Wargocki, Pawel

    2011-01-01

    The main objective of the Ph.D. study was to examine occupants’ perception of comfort and self-estimated job performance in non-industrial buildings (homes and offices), in particular how building occupants understand comfort and which parameters, not necessarily related to indoor environments, influence the perception of comfort.To meet the objective, the following actions were taken: (1) a literature survey exploring which indoor environmental parameters (thermal, acoustic, visualenvironmen...

  11. Methodology to estimate the relative pressure field from noisy experimental velocity data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolin, C D; Raguin, L G

    2008-01-01

    The determination of intravascular pressure fields is important to the characterization of cardiovascular pathology. We present a two-stage method that solves the inverse problem of estimating the relative pressure field from noisy velocity fields measured by phase contrast magnetic resonance imaging (PC-MRI) on an irregular domain with limited spatial resolution, and includes a filter for the experimental noise. For the pressure calculation, the Poisson pressure equation is solved by embedding the irregular flow domain into a regular domain. To lessen the propagation of the noise inherent to the velocity measurements, three filters - a median filter and two physics-based filters - are evaluated using a 2-D Couette flow. The two physics-based filters outperform the median filter for the estimation of the relative pressure field for realistic signal-to-noise ratios (SNR = 5 to 30). The most accurate pressure field results from a filter that applies in a least-squares sense three constraints simultaneously: consistency between measured and filtered velocity fields, divergence-free and additional smoothness conditions. This filter leads to a 5-fold gain in accuracy for the estimated relative pressure field compared to without noise filtering, in conditions consistent with PC-MRI of the carotid artery: SNR = 5, 20 x 20 discretized flow domain (25 X 25 computational domain).

  12. Effect of region assignment on relative renal blood flow estimates using radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, C.C.; Ford, K.K.; Coleman, R.E.; Dunnick, N.R.

    1984-01-01

    To determine the value of the initial phase of the Tc-99m DTPA renogram in the direct estimation of relative renal blood flow in dogs, the ratios of the slopes of renal time-activity curves were compared with the ratios of measured blood flow. Radionuclide results were dependent on region-of-interest (ROI) and background ROI assignment, and correlated well with measured relative flow only with a maximum renal outline region. Curve slope ratios correlated well with measured flow ratios with and without background correction, while 1- to 2-minute uptake ratios correlated well only when corrected for background

  13. Species tree estimation for the late blight pathogen, Phytophthora infestans, and close relatives.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime E Blair

    Full Text Available To better understand the evolutionary history of a group of organisms, an accurate estimate of the species phylogeny must be known. Traditionally, gene trees have served as a proxy for the species tree, although it was acknowledged early on that these trees represented different evolutionary processes. Discordances among gene trees and between the gene trees and the species tree are also expected in closely related species that have rapidly diverged, due to processes such as the incomplete sorting of ancestral polymorphisms. Recently, methods have been developed for the explicit estimation of species trees, using information from multilocus gene trees while accommodating heterogeneity among them. Here we have used three distinct approaches to estimate the species tree for five Phytophthora pathogens, including P. infestans, the causal agent of late blight disease in potato and tomato. Our concatenation-based "supergene" approach was unable to resolve relationships even with data from both the nuclear and mitochondrial genomes, and from multiple isolates per species. Our multispecies coalescent approach using both Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods was able to estimate a moderately supported species tree showing a close relationship among P. infestans, P. andina, and P. ipomoeae. The topology of the species tree was also identical to the dominant phylogenetic history estimated in our third approach, Bayesian concordance analysis. Our results support previous suggestions that P. andina is a hybrid species, with P. infestans representing one parental lineage. The other parental lineage is not known, but represents an independent evolutionary lineage more closely related to P. ipomoeae. While all five species likely originated in the New World, further study is needed to determine when and under what conditions this hybridization event may have occurred.

  14. Species tree estimation for the late blight pathogen, Phytophthora infestans, and close relatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Jaime E; Coffey, Michael D; Martin, Frank N

    2012-01-01

    To better understand the evolutionary history of a group of organisms, an accurate estimate of the species phylogeny must be known. Traditionally, gene trees have served as a proxy for the species tree, although it was acknowledged early on that these trees represented different evolutionary processes. Discordances among gene trees and between the gene trees and the species tree are also expected in closely related species that have rapidly diverged, due to processes such as the incomplete sorting of ancestral polymorphisms. Recently, methods have been developed for the explicit estimation of species trees, using information from multilocus gene trees while accommodating heterogeneity among them. Here we have used three distinct approaches to estimate the species tree for five Phytophthora pathogens, including P. infestans, the causal agent of late blight disease in potato and tomato. Our concatenation-based "supergene" approach was unable to resolve relationships even with data from both the nuclear and mitochondrial genomes, and from multiple isolates per species. Our multispecies coalescent approach using both Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods was able to estimate a moderately supported species tree showing a close relationship among P. infestans, P. andina, and P. ipomoeae. The topology of the species tree was also identical to the dominant phylogenetic history estimated in our third approach, Bayesian concordance analysis. Our results support previous suggestions that P. andina is a hybrid species, with P. infestans representing one parental lineage. The other parental lineage is not known, but represents an independent evolutionary lineage more closely related to P. ipomoeae. While all five species likely originated in the New World, further study is needed to determine when and under what conditions this hybridization event may have occurred.

  15. [Estimation on the indirect economic burden of disease-related premature deaths in China, 2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Juan; Feng, Luzhao; Zheng, Yaming; Yu, Hongjie

    2014-11-01

    To estimate the indirect economic burden of disease-related premature deaths in China, 2012. Both human capital approach and friction cost methods were used to compute the indirect economic burden of premature deaths from the following sources: mortality from the national disease surveillance system in 2012, average annual income per capita from the China Statistic Yearbook in 2012, population size from the 2010 China census, and life expectancy in China from the World Health Organization life table. Data from the Human Capital Approach Estimates showed that the indirect economic burden of premature deaths in China was 425.1 billion in 2012, accounting for 8‰ of the GDP. The indirect economic burden of chronic non-communicable diseases associated premature deaths was accounted for the highest proportion(67.1%, 295.4 billion), followed by those of injuries related premature deaths (25.6% , 108.9 billion), infectious diseases, maternal and infants diseases, and malnutrition related deaths (6.4% , 26.9 billion). The top five premature deaths that cause the indirect economic burden were malignancy, cardiovascular diseases, unintentional injuries, intentional injuries, and diseases of the respiratory system. The indirect economic burden of premature deaths mainly occurred in the population of 20-59 year-olds. Under the Friction Cost method, the estimates appeared to be 0.11%-3.49% of the total human capital approach estimates. Premature death caused heavy indirect economic burden in China. Chronic non-communicable diseases and injuries seemed to incur the major disease burden. The indirect economic burden of premature deaths mainly occurred in the working age group.

  16. Point Cloud Based Relative Pose Estimation of a Satellite in Close Range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lujiang Liu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Determination of the relative pose of satellites is essential in space rendezvous operations and on-orbit servicing missions. The key problems are the adoption of suitable sensor on board of a chaser and efficient techniques for pose estimation. This paper aims to estimate the pose of a target satellite in close range on the basis of its known model by using point cloud data generated by a flash LIDAR sensor. A novel model based pose estimation method is proposed; it includes a fast and reliable pose initial acquisition method based on global optimal searching by processing the dense point cloud data directly, and a pose tracking method based on Iterative Closest Point algorithm. Also, a simulation system is presented in this paper in order to evaluate the performance of the sensor and generate simulated sensor point cloud data. It also provides truth pose of the test target so that the pose estimation error can be quantified. To investigate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and achievable pose accuracy, numerical simulation experiments are performed; results demonstrate algorithm capability of operating with point cloud directly and large pose variations. Also, a field testing experiment is conducted and results show that the proposed method is effective.

  17. New archaeomagnetic data recovered from the study of celtiberic remains from central Spain (Numantia and Ciadueña, 3rd-1st centuries BC). Implications on the fidelity of the Iberian paleointensity database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osete, M. L.; Chauvin, A.; Catanzariti, G.; Jimeno, A.; Campuzano, S. A.; Benito-Batanero, J. P.; Tabernero-Galán, C.; Roperch, P.

    2016-11-01

    Variations of geomagnetic field in the Iberian Peninsula prior to roman times are poorly constrained. Here we report new archaeomagnetic results from four ceramic collections and two combustion structures recovered in two pre-roman (celtiberic) archaeological sites in central Spain. The studied materials have been dated by archaeological evidences and supported by five radiocarbon dates. Rock magnetic experiments indicate that the characteristic remanent manetization (ChRM) is carried by a low coercivity magnetic phase with Curie temperatures of 530-575 °C, most likely Ti-poor titanomagnetite/titanomaghemite. Archaeointensity determinations were carried out by using the classical Thellier-Thellier protocol including tests and corrections for magnetic anisotropy and cooling rate dependency. Two magnetic behaviours were depicted during the laboratory treatment. Black potsherds and poor heated samples from the kilns, presented two magnetization components, alterations or curved Arai plots and were therefore rejected. In contrast, well heated specimens (red ceramic fragments and well heated samples from the kilns) show one single well defined component of magnetization going through the origin and linear Arai plots providing successful archaeointensity determinations. The effect of anisotropy of the thermoremanent magnetization (ATRM) on paleointensity analysis was systematically investigated obtaining very high ATRM corrections on fine pottery specimens. In some cases, differences between the uncorrected and ATRM corrected paleointensity values reached up to 86 %. The mean intensity values obtained from three selected set of samples were 64.3 ± 5.8 μT; 56.8 ± 3.8 and 56.7 ± 4.6 μT (NUS2, CI2 and CIA, respectively), which contribute to better understand the evolution of the palaeofield intensity in central Iberia during the 3rd-1st centuries BC. The direction of the field at first century BC has also been determined from oriented samples from CIA kilns (D = 357

  18. Determining an Estimate of an Equivalence Relation for Moderate and Large Sized Sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leszek Klukowski

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents two approaches to determining estimates of an equivalence relation on the basis of pairwise comparisons with random errors. Obtaining such an estimate requires the solution of a discrete programming problem which minimizes the sum of the differences between the form of the relation and the comparisons. The problem is NP hard and can be solved with the use of exact algorithms for sets of moderate size, i.e. about 50 elements. In the case of larger sets, i.e. at least 200 comparisons for each element, it is necessary to apply heuristic algorithms. The paper presents results (a statistical preprocessing, which enable us to determine the optimal or a near-optimal solution with acceptable computational cost. They include: the development of a statistical procedure producing comparisons with low probabilities of errors and a heuristic algorithm based on such comparisons. The proposed approach guarantees the applicability of such estimators for any size of set. (original abstract

  19. A method for estimating the relative degree of saponification of xanthophyll sources and feedstuffs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, D L

    2006-05-01

    Saponification of xanthophyll esters in various feed sources has been shown to improve pigmentation efficiency in broiler skin and egg yolks. Three trials were conducted to evaluate a rapid liquid chromatography procedure for estimating the relative degree of xanthophyll saponification using samples of yellow corn, corn gluten meal, alfalfa, and 6 commercially available marigold meal concentrates. In each trial, samples were extracted using a modification of the 1984 Association of Official Analytical Chemists hot saponification procedure with and without the addition of KOH. A comparison of the chromatography results was used to estimate percent saponification of the original sample by dividing the nonsaponified extraction values by the saponified extraction values. A comparison of the percent saponified xanthophylls for each product (mg/kg) was: yellow corn, 101; corn gluten meal, 78; alfalfa, 97.9; and marigold concentrates A through F, 99.8, 4.6, 99.0, 95.6, 96.8, and 6.6, respectively. These results indicate that a modification of the 1984 Association of Official Analytical Chemists procedure and liquid column chromatography can be used to quickly verify saponification and can be used to estimate the relative degree of saponification of an unknown xanthophyll source.

  20. Some statistical considerations related to the estimation of cancer risk following exposure to ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Land, C.E.; Pierce, D.A.

    1983-01-01

    Statistical theory and methodology provide the logical structure for scientific inference about the cancer risk associated with exposure to ionizing radiation. Although much is known about radiation carcinogenesis, the risk associated with low-level exposures is difficult to assess because it is too small to measure directly. Estimation must therefore depend upon mathematical models which relate observed risks at high exposure levels to risks at lower exposure levels. Extrapolated risk estimates obtained using such models are heavily dependent upon assumptions about the shape of the dose-response relationship, the temporal distribution of risk following exposure, and variation of risk according to variables such as age at exposure, sex, and underlying population cancer rates. Expanded statistical models, which make explicit certain assumed relationships between different data sets, can be used to strengthen inferences by incorporating relevant information from diverse sources. They also allow the uncertainties inherent in information from related data sets to be expressed in estimates which partially depend upon that information. To the extent that informed opinion is based upon a valid assessment of scientific data, the larger context of decision theory, which includes statistical theory, provides a logical framework for the incorporation into public policy decisions of the informational content of expert opinion

  1. Estimation of the intrinsic stresses in α-alumina in relation with its elaboration mode

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boumaza, A.; Djelloul, A.

    2010-01-01

    The specific signatures of α-Al 2 O 3 by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy were investigated to estimate the intrinsic stress in this compound according to its elaboration mode. Thus, α-alumina was prepared either by calcination of boehmite or gibbsite and also generated by oxidation of a metallic FeCrAl alloy. FTIR results were mainly supported by X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns that allowed to determine the crystallite size and the strain in the various alpha aluminas. Moreover, the infrared peak at 378.7 cm -1 was used as a reference for stress free α-alumina and the shift of this peak allowed to estimate intrinsic stresses, which were related to the morphology and to the specific surface area of aluminas according to their elaboration mode. These interpretations were confirmed by results obtained by cathodoluminescence experiments. - Graphical abstract: The infrared peak at 378.7 cm -1 was used as a reference for stress free α-alumina and the shift of this peak allowed to estimate intrinsic stresses, which were related to the morphology and to the specific surface area of aluminas according to their elaboration mode.

  2. Disentangling the risk assessment and intimate partner violence relation: Estimating mediating and moderating effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Kirk R; Stansfield, Richard

    2017-08-01

    To manage intimate partner violence (IPV), the criminal justice system has turned to risk assessment instruments to predict if a perpetrator will reoffend. Empirically determining whether offenders assessed as high risk are those who recidivate is critical for establishing the predictive validity of IPV risk assessment instruments and for guiding the supervision of perpetrators. But by focusing solely on the relation between calculated risk scores and subsequent IPV recidivism, previous studies of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments omitted mediating factors intended to mitigate the risk of this behavioral recidivism. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of such factors and the moderating effects of risk assessment on the relation between assessed risk (using the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised [DVSI-R]) and recidivistic IPV. Using a sample of 2,520 perpetrators of IPV, results revealed that time sentenced to jail and time sentenced to probation each significantly mediated the relation between DVSI-R risk level and frequency of reoffending. The results also revealed that assessed risk moderated the relation between these mediating factors and IPV recidivism, with reduced recidivism (negative estimated effects) for high-risk perpetrators but increased recidivism (positive estimate effects) for low-risk perpetrators. The implication is to assign interventions to the level of risk so that no harm is done. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Runtime and Inversion Impacts on Estimation of Moisture Retention Relations by Centrifuge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigda, J. M.; Wilson, J. L.

    2003-12-01

    the impact of different runtimes and different inversion techniques on estimated moisture retention parameters. Moisture retention data were collected for a number of poorly lithified sands and indurated deformed sands using the UFA centrifuge system (Conca and Wright, 1990). Parameters for the van Genuchten model were estimated for short and long runtimes with one inversion technique. Model parameters were re-estimated for one other inversion technique and a simple averaging approach which does not involve inversion. Our results demonstrate that the averaging approach greatly underestimates the van Genuchten n parameter relative to the inversion techniques. Insufficient runtimes also have a significant impact on estimated parameters. Our analysis indicates a need, barring method standardization, for practitioners to include information about inversion technique and runtime criteria when presenting centrifuge moisture retention results.

  4. Estimation of the fiscal year 1985 expenditures in nuclear energy relation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    In Japan, the electric power by nuclear energy accounts for about 20 % of the total power at present. Then, radiation is utilized extensively in such fields as industries, agriculture and medicine. The expenditures (budgets) estimated for the fiscal year 1985 are about 343.8 billion yen plus contract authorization limitation about 146.7 billion yen. In connection with the expenditures estimation (of which a breakdown is given in tables), the research and development plans for nuclear energy relation for fiscal year 1985 are presented: strengthening in nuclear energy safety, promotion of nuclear power generation, establishment of the nuclear fuel cycle, development of advanced power reactors, research on nuclear fusion, promotion of radiation utilizations, strengthening in the research and development infrastructure, promotion of international cooperation, etc. (Mori, K.)

  5. Relative risk estimation of Chikungunya disease in Malaysia: An analysis based on Poisson-gamma model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samat, N. A.; Ma'arof, S. H. Mohd Imam

    2015-05-01

    Disease mapping is a method to display the geographical distribution of disease occurrence, which generally involves the usage and interpretation of a map to show the incidence of certain diseases. Relative risk (RR) estimation is one of the most important issues in disease mapping. This paper begins by providing a brief overview of Chikungunya disease. This is followed by a review of the classical model used in disease mapping, based on the standardized morbidity ratio (SMR), which we then apply to our Chikungunya data. We then fit an extension of the classical model, which we refer to as a Poisson-Gamma model, when prior distributions for the relative risks are assumed known. Both results are displayed and compared using maps and we reveal a smoother map with fewer extremes values of estimated relative risk. The extensions of this paper will consider other methods that are relevant to overcome the drawbacks of the existing methods, in order to inform and direct government strategy for monitoring and controlling Chikungunya disease.

  6. READSCAN: A fast and scalable pathogen discovery program with accurate genome relative abundance estimation

    KAUST Repository

    Naeem, Raeece

    2012-11-28

    Summary: READSCAN is a highly scalable parallel program to identify non-host sequences (of potential pathogen origin) and estimate their genome relative abundance in high-throughput sequence datasets. READSCAN accurately classified human and viral sequences on a 20.1 million reads simulated dataset in <27 min using a small Beowulf compute cluster with 16 nodes (Supplementary Material). Availability: http://cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/readscan Contact: or raeece.naeem@gmail.com Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. 2012 The Author(s).

  7. Estimated daily salt intake in relation to blood pressure and blood lipids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thuesen, Betina H; Toft, Ulla; Buhelt, Lone P

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Excessive salt intake causes increased blood pressure which is considered the leading risk for premature death. One major challenge when evaluating associations between daily salt intake and markers of non-communicable diseases is that a high daily salt intake correlates with obesity...... 3294 men and women aged 18-69 years from a general population based study in Copenhagen, Denmark. Estimated 24-hour sodium excretion was calculated by measurements of creatinine and sodium concentration in spot urine in combination with information of sex, age, height and weight. The relations...

  8. Milestones of mathematical model for business process management related to cost estimate documentation in petroleum industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khamidullin, R. I.

    2018-05-01

    The paper is devoted to milestones of the optimal mathematical model for a business process related to cost estimate documentation compiled during construction and reconstruction of oil and gas facilities. It describes the study and analysis of fundamental issues in petroleum industry, which are caused by economic instability and deterioration of a business strategy. Business process management is presented as business process modeling aimed at the improvement of the studied business process, namely main criteria of optimization and recommendations for the improvement of the above-mentioned business model.

  9. READSCAN: A fast and scalable pathogen discovery program with accurate genome relative abundance estimation

    KAUST Repository

    Naeem, Raeece; Rashid, Mamoon; Pain, Arnab

    2012-01-01

    Summary: READSCAN is a highly scalable parallel program to identify non-host sequences (of potential pathogen origin) and estimate their genome relative abundance in high-throughput sequence datasets. READSCAN accurately classified human and viral sequences on a 20.1 million reads simulated dataset in <27 min using a small Beowulf compute cluster with 16 nodes (Supplementary Material). Availability: http://cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/readscan Contact: or raeece.naeem@gmail.com Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. 2012 The Author(s).

  10. Prevalence estimates of combat-related post-traumatic stress disorder: critical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Lisa K; Frueh, B Christopher; Acierno, Ronald

    2010-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to provide a critical review of prevalence estimates of combat-related post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among military personnel and veterans, and of the relevant factors that may account for the variability of estimates within and across cohorts, including methodological and conceptual factors accounting for differences in prevalence rates across nations, conflicts/wars, and studies. MEDLINE and PsycINFO databases were examined for literature on combat-related PTSD. The following terms were used independently and in combinations in this search: PTSD, combat, veterans, military, epidemiology, prevalence. The point prevalence of combat-related PTSD in US military veterans since the Vietnam War ranged from approximately 2% to 17%. Studies of recent conflicts suggest that combat-related PTSD afflicts between 4% and 17% of US Iraq War veterans, but only 3-6% of returning UK Iraq War veterans. Thus, the prevalence range is narrower and tends to have a lower ceiling among combat veterans of non-US Western nations. Variability in prevalence is likely due to differences in sampling strategies; measurement strategies; inclusion and measurement of the DSM-IV clinically significant impairment criterion; timing and latency of assessment and potential for recall bias; and combat experiences. Prevalence rates are also likely affected by issues related to PTSD course, chronicity, and comorbidity; symptom overlap with other psychiatric disorders; and sociopolitical and cultural factors that may vary over time and by nation. The disorder represents a significant and costly illness to veterans, their families, and society as a whole. Further carefully conceptualized research, however, is needed to advance our understanding of disorder prevalence, as well as associated information on course, phenomenology, protective factors, treatment, and economic costs.

  11. Real-Time Algorithm for Relative Position Estimation Between Person and Robot Using a Monocular Camera

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jung Uk; Sun, Ju Young; Won, Mooncheol

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a real-time algorithm for estimating the relative position of a person with respect to a robot (camera) using a monocular camera. The algorithm detects the head and shoulder regions of a person using HOG (Histogram of Oriented Gradient) feature vectors and an SVM (Support Vector Machine) classifier. The size and location of the detected area are used for calculating the relative distance and angle between the person and the camera on a robot. To increase the speed of the algorithm, we use a GPU and NVIDIA's CUDA library; the resulting algorithm speed is ∼ 15 Hz. The accuracy of the algorithm is compared with the output of a SICK laser scanner

  12. Real-Time Algorithm for Relative Position Estimation Between Person and Robot Using a Monocular Camera

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jung Uk [Samsung Electroics, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Sun, Ju Young; Won, Mooncheol [Chungnam Nat' l Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-12-15

    In this paper, we propose a real-time algorithm for estimating the relative position of a person with respect to a robot (camera) using a monocular camera. The algorithm detects the head and shoulder regions of a person using HOG (Histogram of Oriented Gradient) feature vectors and an SVM (Support Vector Machine) classifier. The size and location of the detected area are used for calculating the relative distance and angle between the person and the camera on a robot. To increase the speed of the algorithm, we use a GPU and NVIDIA's CUDA library; the resulting algorithm speed is ∼ 15 Hz. The accuracy of the algorithm is compared with the output of a SICK laser scanner.

  13. The First Result of Relative Positioning and Velocity Estimation Based on CAPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jiaojiao; Ge, Jian; Wang, Liang; Wang, Ningbo; Zhou, Kai; Yuan, Hong

    2018-01-01

    The Chinese Area Positioning System (CAPS) is a new positioning system developed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences based on the communication satellites in geosynchronous orbit. The CAPS has been regarded as a pilot system to test the new technology for the design, construction and update of the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS). The system structure of CAPS, including the space, ground control station and user segments, is almost like the traditional Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs), but with the clock on the ground, the navigation signal in C waveband, and different principles of operation. The major difference is that the CAPS navigation signal is first generated at the ground control station, before being transmitted to the satellite in orbit and finally forwarded by the communication satellite transponder to the user. This design moves the clock from the satellite in orbit to the ground. The clock error can therefore be easily controlled and mitigated to improve the positioning accuracy. This paper will present the performance of CAPS-based relative positioning and velocity estimation as assessed in Beijing, China. The numerical results show that, (1) the accuracies of relative positioning, using only code measurements, are 1.25 and 1.8 m in the horizontal and vertical components, respectively; (2) meanwhile, they are about 2.83 and 3.15 cm in static mode and 6.31 and 10.78 cm in kinematic mode, respectively, when using the carrier-phase measurements with ambiguities fixed; and (3) the accuracy of the velocity estimation is about 0.04 and 0.11 m/s in static and kinematic modes, respectively. These results indicate the potential application of CAPS for high-precision positioning and velocity estimation and the availability of a new navigation mode based on communication satellites. PMID:29757204

  14. Estimation of Relative Economic Weights of Hanwoo Carcass Traits Based on Carcass Market Price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choy, Yun Ho; Park, Byoung Ho; Choi, Tae Jung; Choi, Jae Gwan; Cho, Kwang Hyun; Lee, Seung Soo; Choi, You Lim; Koh, Kyung Chul; Kim, Hyo Sun

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate economic weights of Hanwoo carcass traits that can be used to build economic selection indexes for selection of seedstocks. Data from carcass measures for determining beef yield and quality grades were collected and provided by the Korean Institute for Animal Products Quality Evaluation (KAPE). Out of 1,556,971 records, 476,430 records collected from 13 abattoirs from 2008 to 2010 after deletion of outlying observations were used to estimate relative economic weights of bid price per kg carcass weight on cold carcass weight (CW), eye muscle area (EMA), backfat thickness (BF) and marbling score (MS) and the phenotypic relationships among component traits. Price of carcass tended to increase linearly as yield grades or quality grades, in marginal or in combination, increased. Partial regression coefficients for MS, EMA, BF, and for CW in original scales were +948.5 won/score, +27.3 won/cm2, −95.2 won/mm and +7.3 won/kg when all three sex categories were taken into account. Among four grade determining traits, relative economic weight of MS was the greatest. Variations in partial regression coefficients by sex categories were great but the trends in relative weights for each carcass measures were similar. Relative economic weights of four traits in integer values when standardized measures were fit into covariance model were +4:+1:−1:+1 for MS:EMA:BF:CW. Further research is required to account for the cost of production per unit carcass weight or per unit production under different economic situations. PMID:25049531

  15. Estimating the Relative Water Content of Single Leaves from Optical Polarization Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderbilt, Vern; Daughtry, Craig; Dahlgren, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Remotely sensing the water status of plants and the water content of canopies remain long-term goals of remote sensing research. For monitoring canopy water status, existing approaches such as the Crop Water Stress Index and the Equivalent Water Thickness have limitations. The CWSI does not work well in humid regions, requires estimates of the vapor pressure deficit near the canopy during the remote sensing over-flight and, once stomata close, provides little information regarding the canopy water status. The EWI is based upon the physics of water-light interaction, not plant physiology. In this research, we applied optical polarization techniques to monitor the VISNIR light reflected from the leaf interior, R, as well as the leaf transmittance, T, as the relative water content (RWC) of corn (Zea mays) leaves decreased. Our results show that R and T both changed nonlinearly as each leaf dried, R increasing and T decreasing. Our results tie changes in the VISNIR R and T to leaf physiological changes linking the light scattered out of the drying leaf interior to its relative water content and to changes in leaf cellular structure and pigments. Our results suggest remotely sensing the physiological water status of a single leaf and perhaps of a plant canopy might be possible in the future. However, using our approach to estimate the water status of a leaf does not appear possible at present, because our results display too much variability that we do not yet understand.

  16. Calibrated Tully-fisher Relations For Improved Photometric Estimates Of Disk Rotation Velocities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, Reinabelle; Mandelbaum, R.; Gunn, J. E.; Pizagno, J.

    2011-01-01

    We present calibrated scaling relations (also referred to as Tully-Fisher relations or TFRs) between rotation velocity and photometric quantities-- absolute magnitude, stellar mass, and synthetic magnitude (a linear combination of absolute magnitude and color)-- of disk galaxies at z 0.1. First, we selected a parent disk sample of 170,000 galaxies from SDSS DR7, with redshifts between 0.02 and 0.10 and r band absolute magnitudes between -18.0 and -22.5. Then, we constructed a child disk sample of 189 galaxies that span the parameter space-- in absolute magnitude, color, and disk size-- covered by the parent sample, and for which we have obtained kinematic data. Long-slit spectroscopy were obtained from the Dual Imaging Spectrograph (DIS) at the Apache Point Observatory 3.5 m for 99 galaxies, and from Pizagno et al. (2007) for 95 galaxies (five have repeat observations). We find the best photometric estimator of disk rotation velocity to be a synthetic magnitude with a color correction that is consistent with the Bell et al. (2003) color-based stellar mass ratio. The improved rotation velocity estimates have a wide range of scientific applications, and in particular, in combination with weak lensing measurements, they enable us to constrain the ratio of optical-to-virial velocity in disk galaxies.

  17. Relative abundance estimations of Chengal trees in a tropical rainforest by using modified canopy fractional cover (mCFC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, N

    2014-01-01

    Tree species composition estimations are important to sustain forest management. This study estimates relative abundance of useful timber tree species (chengal) using Hyperion EO-1 satellite data. For the estimation, modified Canopy Fractional Cover (mCFC) was developed using Canopy Fractional Cover (CFC). mCFC was more sensitive to estimate relative abundance of chengal trees rather than Mixture Tuned Matched Filtering (MTMF). Meanwhile, MTMF was more sensitive to estimate the relative abundance of undisturbed forest. Accuracy suggests that the mCFC model is better to explain relative abundance of chengal trees than MTMF. Therefore, it can be concluded that relative abundance of tree species extracted from Hyperion EO-1 satellite data using modified Canopy Fractional Cover is an obtrusive approach used for identifying tree species composition

  18. Relative abundance estimations of chengal tree in a tropical rainforest by using modified Canopy Fractional Cover (mCFC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, N

    2014-01-01

    Tree species composition estimations are important to sustain forest management. This study challenged estimates of relative abundance of useful timber tree species (chengal) using Hyperion EO-1 satellite data. For the estimation, modified Canopy Fractional Cover (mCFC) was developed using Canopy Fractional Cover (CFC). mCFC was more sensitive to estimate relative abundance of chengal trees rather than Mixture Tuned Matched Filtering (MTMF). Meanwhile, MTMF was more sensitive to estimate the relative abundance of undisturbed forest. Accuracy suggests that the mCFC model is better to explain relative abundance of chengal trees than MTMF. Therefore, it can be concluded that relative abundance of trees species extracted from Hyperion EO-1 satellite data using modified Canopy Fractional Cover is an obtrusive approach used for identifying trees species composition

  19. [Estimating non work-related sickness leave absences related to a previous occupational injury in Catalonia (Spain)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molinero-Ruiz, Emilia; Navarro, Albert; Moriña, David; Albertí-Casas, Constança; Jardí-Lliberia, Josefina; de Montserrat-Nonó, Jaume

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the frequency of non-work sickness absence (ITcc) related to previous occupational injuries with (ATB) or without (ATSB) sick leave. Prospective longitudinal study. Workers with ATB or ATSB notified to the Occupational Accident Registry of Catalonia were selected in the last term of 2009. They were followed-up for six months after returning to work (ATB) or after the accident (ATSB), by sex and occupation. Official labor and health authority registries were used as information sources. An "injury-associated ITcc" was defined when the sick leave occurred in the following six months and within the same diagnosis group. The absolute and relative frequency were calculated according to time elapsed and its duration (cumulated days, measures of central trend and dispersion), by diagnosis group or affected body area, as compared to all of Catalonia. 2,9%of ATB (n=627) had an injury-associated ITcc, with differences by diagnosis, sex and occupation; this was also the case for 2,1% of ATSB (n=496).With the same diagnosis, duration of ITcc was longer among those who had an associated injury, and with respect to all of Catalonia. Some of the under-reporting of occupational pathology corresponds to episodes initially recognized as being work-related. Duration of sickness absence depends not only on diagnosis and clinical course, but also on criteria established by the entities managing the case. This could imply that more complicated injuries are referred to the national health system, resulting in personal, legal, healthcare and economic cost consequences for all involved stakeholders. Copyright belongs to the Societat Catalana de Salut Laboral.

  20. Formulation of uncertainty relation of error and disturbance in quantum measurement by using quantum estimation theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Watanabe; Masahito Ueda

    2012-01-01

    Full text: When we try to obtain information about a quantum system, we need to perform measurement on the system. The measurement process causes unavoidable state change. Heisenberg discussed a thought experiment of the position measurement of a particle by using a gamma-ray microscope, and found a trade-off relation between the error of the measured position and the disturbance in the momentum caused by the measurement process. The trade-off relation epitomizes the complementarity in quantum measurements: we cannot perform a measurement of an observable without causing disturbance in its canonically conjugate observable. However, at the time Heisenberg found the complementarity, quantum measurement theory was not established yet, and Kennard and Robertson's inequality erroneously interpreted as a mathematical formulation of the complementarity. Kennard and Robertson's inequality actually implies the indeterminacy of the quantum state: non-commuting observables cannot have definite values simultaneously. However, Kennard and Robertson's inequality reflects the inherent nature of a quantum state alone, and does not concern any trade-off relation between the error and disturbance in the measurement process. In this talk, we report a resolution to the complementarity in quantum measurements. First, we find that it is necessary to involve the estimation process from the outcome of the measurement for quantifying the error and disturbance in the quantum measurement. We clarify the implicitly involved estimation process in Heisenberg's gamma-ray microscope and other measurement schemes, and formulate the error and disturbance for an arbitrary quantum measurement by using quantum estimation theory. The error and disturbance are defined in terms of the Fisher information, which gives the upper bound of the accuracy of the estimation. Second, we obtain uncertainty relations between the measurement errors of two observables [1], and between the error and disturbance in the

  1. Urban energy consumption and related carbon emission estimation: a study at the sector scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Weiwei; Chen, Chen; Su, Meirong; Chen, Bin; Cai, Yanpeng; Xing, Tao

    2013-12-01

    With rapid economic development and energy consumption growth, China has become the largest energy consumer in the world. Impelled by extensive international concern, there is an urgent need to analyze the characteristics of energy consumption and related carbon emission, with the objective of saving energy, reducing carbon emission, and lessening environmental impact. Focusing on urban ecosystems, the biggest energy consumer, a method for estimating energy consumption and related carbon emission was established at the urban sector scale in this paper. Based on data for 1996-2010, the proposed method was applied to Beijing in a case study to analyze the consumption of different energy resources (i.e., coal, oil, gas, and electricity) and related carbon emission in different sectors (i.e., agriculture, industry, construction, transportation, household, and service sectors). The results showed that coal and oil contributed most to energy consumption and carbon emission among different energy resources during the study period, while the industrial sector consumed the most energy and emitted the most carbon among different sectors. Suggestions were put forward for energy conservation and emission reduction in Beijing. The analysis of energy consumption and related carbon emission at the sector scale is helpful for practical energy saving and emission reduction in urban ecosystems.

  2. Estimation of radiation burden to relatives of patients treated with radioiodine for cancer therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tandon, Pankaj; Rohatgi, Rupali; Gaur, P.K.; Rao, B.S.; Gill, B.S.; Hari Babu, T.; Venkatesh, Meera

    2005-01-01

    Patients treated with radioiodine present a radiation hazard and precautions are necessary to limit the radiation dose to family members, nursing staff and members of the public. The precautions advised are usually based on the instantaneous dose rates or iodine retention and do not take into account the time spent in close proximity with a patient. The purpose of this study was to draw guidelines based on the actual measurements and confirm if the present guidelines for discharge of the 131 I-treated thyroid cancer patients are adequate or not. External exposure rates were measured on 37 patients using a calibrated ionization survey meter. The patients' exposure rates were measured at the time of the discharge from the hospital. The patient and their relatives were given lockets embedded with CaSO 4 :Dy dosimeters at the time of discharge from the hospital. These lockets were given with a chain to be worn in the neck for 15 days. These lockets were collected after a fortnight and read out in a conventional TLD reader. These dose estimates can be used to calculate the limits for the patient movements so as to limit doses received to less than 1 mSv for the family members. This study dealt only with the external exposure; the problem of internal contamination was not considered. In our study the doses to the patient have also been measured in order to estimate the percentage of dose received by their relatives. In our study, most of the cases the dose received by the relatives of the patients are more than 1 mSv, which is more than the limit prescribed by the International Commission of Radiological Protection (ICRP) for the general public. (author)

  3. Estimating the clinical benefits of vaccinating boys and girls against HPV-related diseases in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marty, Rémi; Roze, Stéphane; Bresse, Xavier; Largeron, Nathalie; Smith-Palmer, Jayne

    2013-01-01

    HPV is related to a number of cancer types, causing a considerable burden in both genders in Europe. Female vaccination programs can substantially reduce the incidence of HPV-related diseases in women and, to some extent, men through herd immunity. The objective was to estimate the incremental benefit of vaccinating boys and girls using the quadrivalent HPV vaccine in Europe versus girls-only vaccination. Incremental benefits in terms of reduction in the incidence of HPV 6, 11, 16 and 18-related diseases (including cervical, vaginal, vulvar, anal, penile, and head and neck carcinomas and genital warts) were assessed. The analysis was performed using a model constructed in Microsoft®Excel, based on a previously-published dynamic transmission model of HPV vaccination and published European epidemiological data on incidence of HPV-related diseases. The incremental benefits of vaccinating 12-year old girls and boys versus girls-only vaccination was assessed (70% vaccine coverage were assumed for both). Sensitivity analyses around vaccine coverage and duration of protection were performed. Compared with screening alone, girls-only vaccination led to 84% reduction in HPV 16/18-related carcinomas in females and a 61% reduction in males. Vaccination of girls and boys led to a 90% reduction in HPV 16/18-related carcinomas in females and 86% reduction in males versus screening alone. Relative to a girls-only program, vaccination of girls and boys led to a reduction in female and male HPV-related carcinomas of 40% and 65%, respectively and a reduction in the incidence of HPV 6/11-related genital warts of 58% for females and 71% for males versus girls-only vaccination. In Europe, the vaccination of 12-year old boys and girls against HPV 6, 11, 16 and 18 would be associated with substantial additional clinical benefits in terms of reduced incidence of HPV-related genital warts and carcinomas versus girls-only vaccination. The incremental benefits of adding boys vaccination are

  4. Simultaneous State and Parameter Estimation Using Maximum Relative Entropy with Nonhomogenous Differential Equation Constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adom Giffin

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we continue our efforts to show how maximum relative entropy (MrE can be used as a universal updating algorithm. Here, our purpose is to tackle a joint state and parameter estimation problem where our system is nonlinear and in a non-equilibrium state, i.e., perturbed by varying external forces. Traditional parameter estimation can be performed by using filters, such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF. However, as shown with a toy example of a system with first order non-homogeneous ordinary differential equations, assumptions made by the EKF algorithm (such as the Markov assumption may not be valid. The problem can be solved with exponential smoothing, e.g., exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA. Although this has been shown to produce acceptable filtering results in real exponential systems, it still cannot simultaneously estimate both the state and its parameters and has its own assumptions that are not always valid, for example when jump discontinuities exist. We show that by applying MrE as a filter, we can not only develop the closed form solutions, but we can also infer the parameters of the differential equation simultaneously with the means. This is useful in real, physical systems, where we want to not only filter the noise from our measurements, but we also want to simultaneously infer the parameters of the dynamics of a nonlinear and non-equilibrium system. Although there were many assumptions made throughout the paper to illustrate that EKF and exponential smoothing are special cases ofMrE, we are not “constrained”, by these assumptions. In other words, MrE is completely general and can be used in broader ways.

  5. Estimating internal exposure risks by the relative risk and the National Institute of Health risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehta, S.K.; Sarangapani, R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents tabulations of risk (R) and person-years of life lost (PYLL) for acute exposures of individual organs at ages 20 and 40 yrs for the Indian and Japanese populations to illustrate the effect of age at exposure in the two models. Results are also presented for the organ wise nominal probability coefficients (NPC) and PYLL for individual organs for the age distributed Indian population by the two models. The results presented show that for all organs the estimates of PYLL and NPC for the Indian population are lower than those for the Japanese population by both models except for oesophagus, breast and ovary by the relative risk (RR) model, where the opposite trend is observed. The results also show that the Indian all-cancer values of NPC averaged over the two models is 2.9 x 10 -2 Sv -1 , significantly lower than the world average value of 5x10 -2 Sv -1 estimated by the ICRP. (author). 9 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  6. Estimation of building-related construction and demolition waste in Shanghai.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Tao; Xiao, Jianzhuang

    2014-11-01

    One methodology is proposed to estimate the quantification and composition of building-related construction and demolition (C&D) waste in a fast developing region like Shanghai, PR China. The varieties of structure types and building waste intensities due to the requirement of progressive building design and structure codes in different decades are considered in this regional C&D waste estimation study. It is concluded that approximately 13.71 million tons of C&D waste was generated in 2012 in Shanghai, of which more than 80% of this C&D waste was concrete, bricks and blocks. Analysis from this study can be applied to facilitate C&D waste governors and researchers the duty of formulating precise policies and specifications. As a matter of fact, at least a half of the enormous amount of C&D waste could be recycled if implementing proper recycling technologies and measures. The appropriate managements would be economically and environmentally beneficial to Shanghai where the per capita per year output of C&D waste has been as high as 842 kg in 2010. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Estimation of genetic parameters related to eggshell strength using random regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, J; Ma, M; Qu, L; Shen, M; Dou, T; Wang, K

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the changes in eggshell strength and the genetic parameters related to this trait throughout a hen's laying life using random regression. The data were collected from a crossbred population between 2011 and 2014, where the eggshell strength was determined repeatedly for 2260 hens. Using random regression models (RRMs), several Legendre polynomials were employed to estimate the fixed, direct genetic and permanent environment effects. The residual effects were treated as independently distributed with heterogeneous variance for each test week. The direct genetic variance was included with second-order Legendre polynomials and the permanent environment with third-order Legendre polynomials. The heritability of eggshell strength ranged from 0.26 to 0.43, the repeatability ranged between 0.47 and 0.69, and the estimated genetic correlations between test weeks was high at > 0.67. The first eigenvalue of the genetic covariance matrix accounted for about 97% of the sum of all the eigenvalues. The flexibility and statistical power of RRM suggest that this model could be an effective method to improve eggshell quality and to reduce losses due to cracked eggs in a breeding plan.

  8. Factoring vs linear modeling in rate estimation: a simulation study of relative accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maldonado, G; Greenland, S

    1998-07-01

    A common strategy for modeling dose-response in epidemiology is to transform ordered exposures and covariates into sets of dichotomous indicator variables (that is, to factor the variables). Factoring tends to increase estimation variance, but it also tends to decrease bias and thus may increase or decrease total accuracy. We conducted a simulation study to examine the impact of factoring on the accuracy of rate estimation. Factored and unfactored Poisson regression models were fit to follow-up study datasets that were randomly generated from 37,500 population model forms that ranged from subadditive to supramultiplicative. In the situations we examined, factoring sometimes substantially improved accuracy relative to fitting the corresponding unfactored model, sometimes substantially decreased accuracy, and sometimes made little difference. The difference in accuracy between factored and unfactored models depended in a complicated fashion on the difference between the true and fitted model forms, the strength of exposure and covariate effects in the population, and the study size. It may be difficult in practice to predict when factoring is increasing or decreasing accuracy. We recommend, therefore, that the strategy of factoring variables be supplemented with other strategies for modeling dose-response.

  9. Relation between electrocardiographic and enzymatic methods of estimating acute myocardial infarct size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindman, N; Grande, P; Harrell, F E; Anderson, C; Harrison, D; Ideker, R E; Selvester, R H; Wagner, G S

    1986-07-01

    The extent of initial acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and subsequent patient prognosis were studied using 2 independent indicators of AMI size. Two inexpensive, readily available techniques, the complete Selvester QRS score from the standard 12-lead electrocardiogram and the peak value of the isoenzyme MB of creatine kinase (CK-MB), were evaluated in 125 patients with initial AMI. The overall correlation between peak CK-MB and QRS score was fair (0.57), with marked difference according to anterior (0.72) or inferior (0.35) location. The prognostic capabilities of each measurement varied. Peak CK-MB provided significant information concerning hospital morbidity or early mortality (within 30 days) for both anterior (chi 2 = 9.83) and inferior (chi 2 = 7.68) AMI locations; however, the QRS score was significant only for anterior AMI (chi 2 = 9.50). For total 24-month mortality, the QRS score alone provided the most information (chi 2 = 10.0, p = 0.0016), which was not improved with the addition of CK-MB (chi 2 = 0.07, p = 0.79). This study shows a good relation between these 2 independent estimates of AMI size for patients with anterior AMI location. Both QRS and CK-MB results are significantly related to early morbidity and mortality; however, only the QRS score is related to total 24-month prognosis.

  10. Parameter estimation method that directly compares gravitational wave observations to numerical relativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, J.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Boyle, M.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Campanelli, M.; Chu, T.; Clark, J. A.; Demos, N.; Fong, H.; Healy, J.; Hemberger, D. A.; Hinder, I.; Jani, K.; Khamesra, B.; Kidder, L. E.; Kumar, P.; Laguna, P.; Lousto, C. O.; Lovelace, G.; Ossokine, S.; Pfeiffer, H.; Scheel, M. A.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Szilagyi, B.; Teukolsky, S.; Zlochower, Y.

    2017-11-01

    We present and assess a Bayesian method to interpret gravitational wave signals from binary black holes. Our method directly compares gravitational wave data to numerical relativity (NR) simulations. In this study, we present a detailed investigation of the systematic and statistical parameter estimation errors of this method. This procedure bypasses approximations used in semianalytical models for compact binary coalescence. In this work, we use the full posterior parameter distribution for only generic nonprecessing binaries, drawing inferences away from the set of NR simulations used, via interpolation of a single scalar quantity (the marginalized log likelihood, ln L ) evaluated by comparing data to nonprecessing binary black hole simulations. We also compare the data to generic simulations, and discuss the effectiveness of this procedure for generic sources. We specifically assess the impact of higher order modes, repeating our interpretation with both l ≤2 as well as l ≤3 harmonic modes. Using the l ≤3 higher modes, we gain more information from the signal and can better constrain the parameters of the gravitational wave signal. We assess and quantify several sources of systematic error that our procedure could introduce, including simulation resolution and duration; most are negligible. We show through examples that our method can recover the parameters for equal mass, zero spin, GW150914-like, and unequal mass, precessing spin sources. Our study of this new parameter estimation method demonstrates that we can quantify and understand the systematic and statistical error. This method allows us to use higher order modes from numerical relativity simulations to better constrain the black hole binary parameters.

  11. Paleoarchean and Cambrian observations of the geodynamo in light of new estimates of core thermal conductivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarduno, John; Bono, Richard; Cottrell, Rory

    2015-04-01

    Recent estimates of core thermal conductivity are larger than prior values by a factor of approximately three. These new estimates suggest that the inner core is a relatively young feature, perhaps as young as 500 million years old, and that the core-mantle heat flux required to drive the early dynamo was greater than previously assumed (Nimmo, 2015). Here, we focus on paleomagnetic studies of two key time intervals important for understanding core evolution in light of the revisions of core conductivity values. 1. Hadean to Paleoarchean (4.4-3.4 Ga). Single silicate crystal paleointensity analyses suggest a relatively strong magnetic field at 3.4-3.45 Ga (Tarduno et al., 2010). Paleointenity data from zircons of the Jack Hills (Western Australia) further suggest the presence of a geodynamo between 3.5 and 3.6 Ga (Tarduno and Cottrell, 2014). We will discuss our efforts to test for the absence/presence of the geodynamo in older Eoarchean and Hadean times. 2. Ediacaran to Early Cambrian (~635-530 Ma). Disparate directions seen in some paleomagnetic studies from this time interval have been interpreted as recording inertial interchange true polar wander (IITPW). Recent single silicate paleomagnetic analyses fail to find evidence for IITPW; instead a reversing field overprinted by secondary magnetizations is defined (Bono and Tarduno, 2015). Preliminary analyses suggest the field may have been unusually weak. We will discuss our on-going tests of the hypothesis that this interval represents the time of onset of inner core growth. References: Bono, R.K. & Tarduno, J.A., Geology, in press (2015); Nimmo, F., Treatise Geophys., in press (2015); Tarduno, J.A., et al., Science (2010); Tarduno, J.A. & Cottrell, R.D., AGU Fall Meeting (2014).

  12. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trine Madsen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

  13. Estimation of relative permeability and capillary pressure from mass imbibition experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alyafei, Nayef; Blunt, Martin J.

    2018-05-01

    We perform spontaneous imbibition experiments on three carbonates - Estaillades, Ketton, and Portland - which are three quarry limestones that have very different pore structures and span wide range of permeability. We measure the mass of water imbibed in air saturated cores as a function of time under strongly water-wet conditions. Specifically, we perform co-current spontaneous experiments using a highly sensitive balance to measure the mass imbibed as a function of time for the three rocks. We use cores measuring 37 mm in diameter and three lengths of approximately 76 mm, 204 mm, and 290 mm. We show that the amount imbibed scales as the square root of time and find the parameter C, where the volume imbibed per unit cross-sectional area at time t is Ct1/2. We find higher C values for higher permeability rocks. Employing semi-analytical solutions for one-dimensional flow and using reasonable estimates of relative permeability and capillary pressure, we can match the experimental data. We finally discuss how, in combination with conventional measurements, we can use theoretical solutions and imbibition measurements to find or constrain relative permeability and capillary pressure.

  14. Trial latencies estimation of event-related potentials in EEG by means of genetic algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Da Pelo, P.; De Tommaso, M.; Monaco, A.; Stramaglia, S.; Bellotti, R.; Tangaro, S.

    2018-04-01

    Objective. Event-related potentials (ERPs) are usually obtained by averaging thus neglecting the trial-to-trial latency variability in cognitive electroencephalography (EEG) responses. As a consequence the shape and the peak amplitude of the averaged ERP are smeared and reduced, respectively, when the single-trial latencies show a relevant variability. To date, the majority of the methodologies for single-trial latencies inference are iterative schemes providing suboptimal solutions, the most commonly used being the Woody’s algorithm. Approach. In this study, a global approach is developed by introducing a fitness function whose global maximum corresponds to the set of latencies which renders the trial signals most aligned as possible. A suitable genetic algorithm has been implemented to solve the optimization problem, characterized by new genetic operators tailored to the present problem. Main results. The results, on simulated trials, showed that the proposed algorithm performs better than Woody’s algorithm in all conditions, at the cost of an increased computational complexity (justified by the improved quality of the solution). Application of the proposed approach on real data trials, resulted in an increased correlation between latencies and reaction times w.r.t. the output from RIDE method. Significance. The above mentioned results on simulated and real data indicate that the proposed method, providing a better estimate of single-trial latencies, will open the way to more accurate study of neural responses as well as to the issue of relating the variability of latencies to the proper cognitive and behavioural correlates.

  15. Calculation of prevalence estimates through differential equations: application to stroke-related disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mar, Javier; Sainz-Ezkerra, María; Moler-Cuiral, Jose Antonio

    2008-01-01

    Neurological diseases now make up 6.3% of the global burden of disease mainly because they cause disability. To assess disability, prevalence estimates are needed. The objective of this study is to apply a method based on differential equations to calculate the prevalence of stroke-related disability. On the basis of a flow diagram, a set of differential equations for each age group was constructed. The linear system was solved analytically and numerically. The parameters of the system were obtained from the literature. The model was validated and calibrated by comparison with previous results. The stroke prevalence rate per 100,000 men was 828, and the rate for stroke-related disability was 331. The rates steadily rose with age, but the group between the ages of 65 and 74 years had the highest total number of individuals. Differential equations are useful to represent the natural history of neurological diseases and to make possible the calculation of the prevalence for the various states of disability. In our experience, when compared with the results obtained by Markov models, the benefit of the continuous use of time outweighs the mathematical requirements of our model. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  16. Relative Attitude Estimation for a Uniform Motion and Slowly Rotating Noncooperative Spacecraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel relative attitude estimation approach for a uniform motion and slowly rotating noncooperative spacecraft. It is assumed that the uniform motion and slowly rotating noncooperative chief spacecraft is in failure or out of control and there is no a priori rotation rate information. We utilize a very fast binary descriptor based on binary robust independent elementary features (BRIEF to obtain the features of the target, which are rotational invariance and resistance to noise. And then, we propose a novel combination of single candidate random sample consensus (RANSAC with extended Kalman filter (EKF that makes use of the available prior probabilistic information from the EKF in the RANSAC model hypothesis stage. The advantage of this combination obviously reduces the sample size to only one, which results in large computational savings without the loss of accuracy. Experimental results from real image sequence of a real model target show that the relative angular error is about 3.5% and the mean angular velocity error is about 0.1 deg/s.

  17. Estimating return periods of extreme values from relatively short time series of winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonasson, Kristjan; Agustsson, Halfdan; Rognvaldsson, Olafur; Arfeuille, Gilles

    2013-04-01

    An important factor for determining the prospect of individual wind farm sites is the frequency of extreme winds at hub height. Here, extreme winds are defined as the value of the highest 10 minutes averaged wind speed with a 50 year return period, i.e. annual exceeding probability of 2% (Rodrigo, 2010). A frequently applied method to estimate winds in the lowest few hundred meters above ground is to extrapolate observed 10-meter winds logarithmically to higher altitudes. Recent study by Drechsel et al. (2012) showed however that this methodology is not as accurate as interpolating simulated results from the global ECMWF numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to the desired height. Observations of persistent low level jets near Colima in SW-Mexico also show that the logarithmic approach can give highly inaccurate results for some regions (Arfeuille et al., 2012). To address these shortcomings of limited, and/or poorly representative, observations and extrapolations of winds one can use NWP models to dynamically scale down relatively coarse resolution atmospheric analysis. In the case of limited computing resources one has typically to make a compromise between spatial resolution and the duration of the simulated period, both of which can limit the quality of the wind farm siting. A common method to estimate maximum winds is to fit an extreme value distribution (e.g. Gumbel, gev or Pareto) to the maximum values of each year of available data, or the tail of these values. If data are only available for a short period, e.g. 10 or 15 years, then this will give a rather inaccurate estimate. It is possible to deal with this problem by utilizing monthly or weekly maxima, but this introduces new problems: seasonal variation, autocorrelation of neighboring values, and increased discrepancy between data and fitted distribution. We introduce a new method to estimate return periods of extreme values of winds at hub height from relatively short time series of winds, simulated

  18. Reproducibility and relative validity of a food frequency questionnaire to estimate intake of dietary phylloquinone and menaquinones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background: Several observational studies have investigated the relation of dietary phylloquinone and menaquinone intake with occurrence of chronic diseases. Most of these studies relied on food frequency questionnaires (FFQ) to estimate the intake of phylloquinone and menaquinones. However, none of...

  19. Reproducibility and relative validity of a food frequency questionnaire to estimate intake of dietary phylloquinone and menaquinones.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwakenberg, S R; Engelen, A I P; Dalmeijer, G W; Booth, S L; Vermeer, C; Drijvers, J J M M; Ocke, M C; Feskens, E J M; van der Schouw, Y T; Beulens, J W J

    2017-01-01

    This study aims to investigate the reproducibility and relative validity of the Dutch food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), to estimate intake of dietary phylloquinone and menaquinones compared with 24-h dietary recalls (24HDRs) and plasma markers of vitamin K status.

  20. Wenatchee River steelhead reproductive success - Estimate the relative reproductive success of hatchery and wild steelhead in the Wenatchee River, WA

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project uses genetic parentage analysis to estimate the relative reproductive success of hatchery and wild steelhead spawning in the Wenatchee River, WA. The...

  1. Grid-search Moment Tensor Estimation: Implementation and CTBT-related Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stachnik, J. C.; Baker, B. I.; Rozhkov, M.; Friberg, P. A.; Leifer, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    This abstract presents a review work related to moment tensor estimation for Expert Technical Analysis at the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization. In this context of event characterization, estimation of key source parameters provide important insights into the nature of failure in the earth. For example, if the recovered source parameters are indicative of a shallow source with large isotropic component then one conclusion is that it is a human-triggered explosive event. However, an important follow-up question in this application is - does an alternative hypothesis like a deeper source with a large double couple component explain the data approximately as well as the best solution? Here we address the issue of both finding a most likely source and assessing its uncertainty. Using the uniform moment tensor discretization of Tape and Tape (2015) we exhaustively interrogate and tabulate the source eigenvalue distribution (i.e., the source characterization), tensor orientation, magnitude, and source depth. The benefit of the grid-search is that we can quantitatively assess the extent to which model parameters are resolved. This provides a valuable opportunity during the assessment phase to focus interpretation on source parameters that are well-resolved. Another benefit of the grid-search is that it proves to be a flexible framework where different pieces of information can be easily incorporated. To this end, this work is particularly interested in fitting teleseismic body waves and regional surface waves as well as incorporating teleseismic first motions when available. Being that the moment tensor search methodology is well-established we primarily focus on the implementation and application. We present a highly scalable strategy for systematically inspecting the entire model parameter space. We then focus on application to regional and teleseismic data recorded during a handful of natural and anthropogenic events, report on the grid-search optimum, and

  2. Resistance–temperature relation and atom cluster estimation of In–Bi system melts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geng, Haoran; Wang Zhiming; Zhou Yongzhi; Li Cancan

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A testing device was adopted to measure the electrical resistivity of In–Bi system melts. ► A basically linear relation exists between the resistivity and temperature of In x Bi 100−x melts in measured temperature range. ► Based on Novakovic's assumption, the content of InBi atomic cluster in In x Bi 100−x melt is estimated with ρ ≈ ρ InBi x InBi + ρ m (1 − x InBi ) equation. - Abstract: A testing device for the resistivity of high-temperature melt was adopted to measure the l resistivity of In–Bi system melts at different temperatures. It can be concluded from the analysis and calculation of the experimental results that the resistivity of In x Bi 100−x (x = 0–100) melt is in linear relationship with temperature within the experiment temperature range. The resistivity of the melt decreases with the increasing content of In. The fair consistency of resistivity of In–Bi system melt is found in the heating and cooling processes. On the basis of Novakovic's assumption, we approximately estimated the content of InBi atom clusters in In x Bi 100−x melts with the resistivity data by equation ρ ≈ ρ InBi x InBi + ρ m (1 − x InBi ). In the whole components interval, the content corresponds well with the mole fraction of InBi clusters calculated by Novakovic in the thermodynamic approach. The mole fraction of InBi type atom clusters in the melts reaches the maximum at the point of stoichiometric composition In 50 Bi 50 .

  3. Estimating regional methane surface fluxes: the relative importance of surface and GOSAT mole fraction measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Fraser

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF, together with the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model, to estimate regional monthly methane (CH4 fluxes for the period June 2009–December 2010 using proxy dry-air column-averaged mole fractions of methane (XCH4 from GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite and/or NOAA ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory and CSIRO GASLAB (Global Atmospheric Sampling Laboratory CH4 surface mole fraction measurements. Global posterior estimates using GOSAT and/or surface measurements are between 510–516 Tg yr−1, which is less than, though within the uncertainty of, the prior global flux of 529 ± 25 Tg yr−1. We find larger differences between regional prior and posterior fluxes, with the largest changes in monthly emissions (75 Tg yr−1 occurring in Temperate Eurasia. In non-boreal regions the error reductions for inversions using the GOSAT data are at least three times larger (up to 45% than if only surface data are assimilated, a reflection of the greater spatial coverage of GOSAT, with the two exceptions of latitudes >60° associated with a data filter and over Europe where the surface network adequately describes fluxes on our model spatial and temporal grid. We use CarbonTracker and GEOS-Chem XCO2 model output to investigate model error on quantifying proxy GOSAT XCH4 (involving model XCO2 and inferring methane flux estimates from surface mole fraction data and show similar resulting fluxes, with differences reflecting initial differences in the proxy value. Using a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs we characterize the posterior flux error introduced by non-uniform atmospheric sampling by GOSAT. We show that clear-sky measurements can theoretically reproduce fluxes within 10% of true values, with the exception of tropical regions where, due to a large seasonal cycle in the number of measurements because of clouds and aerosols, fluxes are within 15% of true fluxes. We evaluate our

  4. Edge type affects leaf-level water relations and estimated transpiration of Eucalyptus arenacea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Thomas E; Tausz, Michael; Kasel, Sabine; Volkova, Liubov; Merchant, Andrew; Bennett, Lauren T

    2012-03-01

    While edge effects on tree water relations are well described for closed forests, they remain under-examined in more open forest types. Similarly, there has been minimal evaluation of the effects of contrasting land uses on the water relations of open forest types in highly fragmented landscapes. We examined edge effects on the water relations and gas exchange of a dominant tree (Eucalyptus arenacea Marginson & Ladiges) in an open forest type (temperate woodland) of south-eastern Australia. Edge effects in replicate woodlands adjoined by cleared agricultural land (pasture edges) were compared with those adjoined by 7- to 9-year-old eucalypt plantation with a 25m fire break (plantation edges). Consistent with studies in closed forest types, edge effects were pronounced at pasture edges where photosynthesis, transpiration and stomatal conductance were greater for edge trees than interior trees (75m into woodlands), and were related to greater light availability and significantly higher branch water potentials at woodland edges than interiors. Nonetheless, gas exchange values were only ∼50% greater for edge than interior trees, compared with ∼200% previously found in closed forest types. In contrast to woodlands adjoined by pasture, gas exchange in winter was significantly lower for edge than interior trees in woodlands adjoined by plantations, consistent with shading and buffering effects of plantations on edge microclimate. Plantation edge effects were less pronounced in summer, although higher water use efficiency of edge than interior woodland trees indicated possible competition for water between plantation trees and woodland edge trees in the drier months (an effect that might have been more pronounced were there no firebreak between the two land uses). Scaling up of leaf-level water relations to stand transpiration using a Jarvis-type phenomenological model indicated similar differences between edge types. That is, transpiration was greater at pasture than

  5. Estimating the prevalence of 26 health-related indicators at neighbourhood level in the Netherlands using structured additive regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Kassteele, Jan; Zwakhals, Laurens; Breugelmans, Oscar; Ameling, Caroline; van den Brink, Carolien

    2017-07-01

    Local policy makers increasingly need information on health-related indicators at smaller geographic levels like districts or neighbourhoods. Although more large data sources have become available, direct estimates of the prevalence of a health-related indicator cannot be produced for neighbourhoods for which only small samples or no samples are available. Small area estimation provides a solution, but unit-level models for binary-valued outcomes that can handle both non-linear effects of the predictors and spatially correlated random effects in a unified framework are rarely encountered. We used data on 26 binary-valued health-related indicators collected on 387,195 persons in the Netherlands. We associated the health-related indicators at the individual level with a set of 12 predictors obtained from national registry data. We formulated a structured additive regression model for small area estimation. The model captured potential non-linear relations between the predictors and the outcome through additive terms in a functional form using penalized splines and included a term that accounted for spatially correlated heterogeneity between neighbourhoods. The registry data were used to predict individual outcomes which in turn are aggregated into higher geographical levels, i.e. neighbourhoods. We validated our method by comparing the estimated prevalences with observed prevalences at the individual level and by comparing the estimated prevalences with direct estimates obtained by weighting methods at municipality level. We estimated the prevalence of the 26 health-related indicators for 415 municipalities, 2599 districts and 11,432 neighbourhoods in the Netherlands. We illustrate our method on overweight data and show that there are distinct geographic patterns in the overweight prevalence. Calibration plots show that the estimated prevalences agree very well with observed prevalences at the individual level. The estimated prevalences agree reasonably well with the

  6. Autistic disorders and schizophrenia: related or remote? An anatomical likelihood estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlton Cheung

    Full Text Available Shared genetic and environmental risk factors have been identified for autistic spectrum disorders (ASD and schizophrenia. Social interaction, communication, emotion processing, sensorimotor gating and executive function are disrupted in both, stimulating debate about whether these are related conditions. Brain imaging studies constitute an informative and expanding resource to determine whether brain structural phenotype of these disorders is distinct or overlapping. We aimed to synthesize existing datasets characterizing ASD and schizophrenia within a common framework, to quantify their structural similarities. In a novel modification of Anatomical Likelihood Estimation (ALE, 313 foci were extracted from 25 voxel-based studies comprising 660 participants (308 ASD, 352 first-episode schizophrenia and 801 controls. The results revealed that, compared to controls, lower grey matter volumes within limbic-striato-thalamic circuitry were common to ASD and schizophrenia. Unique features of each disorder included lower grey matter volume in amygdala, caudate, frontal and medial gyrus for schizophrenia and putamen for autism. Thus, in terms of brain volumetrics, ASD and schizophrenia have a clear degree of overlap that may reflect shared etiological mechanisms. However, the distinctive neuroanatomy also mapped in each condition raises the question about how this is arrived in the context of common etiological pressures.

  7. Rough estimate demand of atomic energy-related budget for fiscal year 1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitagishi, Tatsuro

    1996-01-01

    The rough estimate demand of the budget for fiscal year 1996 of eight atomic energy-related ministries and agencies was determined at about 494,879 million yen, which is 2.4% growth as compared with that for the previous year. Concretely, the general account is 204,594 million yen, 2.2% growth, and the special account is 290,285 million yen, 2.6% growth. The budget is 357,060 million yen and 3.7% growth for Science and Technology Agency, 130, 787 million yen and 2% decrease for Ministry of International Trade and Industry, and 7,032 million yen and 29.2% increase for other six ministries and agencies. Emphasis is placed on the research of upgrading LWRs including the disassembling of reactors, the performance test for fuel, the improvement of reactor technology and the verifying test of practical reactor decommissioning facilities, and the research and development of advanced nuclear fuel cycle technology. Also the technical development of waste treatment and disposal including high level radioactive waste is carried out with 40.3 billion yen. Atomic Energy Commission exerts efforts for the development of atomic energy policy for the peaceful utilization, the establishment of coordinative LWR power generation system, the development of nuclear fuel recycling and the strengthening of the basic research on atomic energy. (K.I.)

  8. The age estimation practice related to illegal unaccompanied minors immigration in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradella, F; Pinchi, V; Focardi, M; Grifoni, R; Palandri, M; Norelli, G A

    2017-12-01

    The migrants arrived to the Italian coasts in 2016 were 181.436, 18% more than the previous year and 6% more than the highest number ever since. An "unaccompanied minor" (UAM) is a third-country national or a stateless person under eighteen years of age, who arrives on the territory of the Member State unaccompanied by an adult responsible for him/her whether by law or by the practice of the Member State concerned, and for as long as he or she is not effectively taken into the care of such a person; it includes a minor who is left unaccompanied after he/she entered the territory of the Member States. As many as 95.985 UAMs applied for international protection in an EU member country just in 2015, almost four times the number registered in the previous year. The UAMs arrived in Italy were 28.283 in 2016; 94% of them were males, 92% unaccompanied, 8% of them under 15; the 53,6% is 17; the individuals between 16 and 17 are instead the 82%. Many of them (50%), 6561 in 2016, escaped from the sanctuaries, thus avoiding to be formally identified and registered in Italy in the attempt to reach more easily northern Europe countries, since The Dublin Regulations (2003) state that the asylum application should be held in the EU country of entrance or where parents reside. The age assessment procedures can therefore be considered as a relevant task that weighs in on the shoulders of the forensic experts with all the related issues and the coming of age is the important threshold. In the EU laws on asylum, the minors are considered as one of the groups of vulnerable persons towards whom Member States have specific obligations. A proper EU common formal regulation in the matter of age estimation procedures still lacks. According to the Italian legal framework in the matter, a medical examination should have been always performed but a new law completely changed the approach to the procedures of age estimation of the migrant (excluding the criminal cases) with a better adherence

  9. Calibrated Tully-Fisher relations for improved estimates of disc rotation velocities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, R.; Mandelbaum, R.; Gunn, J. E.; Pizagno, J.; Lackner, C. N.

    2011-11-01

    In this paper, we derive scaling relations between photometric observable quantities and disc galaxy rotation velocity Vrot or Tully-Fisher relations (TFRs). Our methodology is dictated by our purpose of obtaining purely photometric, minimal-scatter estimators of Vrot applicable to large galaxy samples from imaging surveys. To achieve this goal, we have constructed a sample of 189 disc galaxies at redshifts z < 0.1 with long-slit Hα spectroscopy from Pizagno et al. and new observations. By construction, this sample is a fair subsample of a large, well-defined parent disc sample of ˜170 000 galaxies selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 (SDSS DR7). The optimal photometric estimator of Vrot we find is stellar mass M★ from Bell et al., based on the linear combination of a luminosity and a colour. Assuming a Kroupa initial mass function (IMF), we find: log [V80/(km s-1)] = (2.142 ± 0.004) + (0.278 ± 0.010)[log (M★/M⊙) - 10.10], where V80 is the rotation velocity measured at the radius R80 containing 80 per cent of the i-band galaxy light. This relation has an intrinsic Gaussian scatter ? dex and a measured scatter σmeas= 0.056 dex in log V80. For a fixed IMF, we find that the dynamical-to-stellar mass ratios within R80, (Mdyn/M★)(R80), decrease from approximately 10 to 3, as stellar mass increases from M★≈ 109 to 1011 M⊙. At a fixed stellar mass, (Mdyn/M★)(R80) increases with disc size, so that it correlates more tightly with stellar surface density than with stellar mass or disc size alone. We interpret the observed variation in (Mdyn/M★)(R80) with disc size as a reflection of the fact that disc size dictates the radius at which Mdyn/M★ is measured, and consequently, the fraction of the dark matter 'seen' by the gas at that radius. For the lowest M★ galaxies, we find a positive correlation between TFR residuals and disc sizes, indicating that the total density profile is dominated by dark matter on these scales. For the

  10. Estimates of the pion-nucleon sigma term using dispersion relations and taking into account the relation between chiral and scale invariance breaking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efrosinin, V.P.; Zaikin, D.A.

    1983-01-01

    We study the possible reasons for the disagreement between the estimates of the pion-nucleon sigma term obtained by the method of dispersion relations with extrapolation to the Cheng-Dashen point and by other methods which do not involve this extrapolation. One reason for the disagreement may be the nonanalyticity of the πN amplitude in the variable t for ν = 0. We propose a method for estimating the sigma term using the threshold data for the πN amplitude, in which the effect of this nonanalyticity is minimized. We discuss the relation between scale invariance violation and chiral symmetry breaking and give the corresponding estimate of the sigma term. The two estimates are similar (42 and 34 MeV) and are in agreement when the uncertainties of the two methods are taken into consideration

  11. Relating Local to Global Spatial Knowledge: Heuristic Influence of Local Features on Direction Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Daniel W.; Montello, Daniel R.

    2015-01-01

    Previous research has examined heuristics--simplified decision-making rules-of-thumb--for geospatial reasoning. This study examined at two locations the influence of beliefs about local coastline orientation on estimated directions to local and distant places; estimates were made immediately or after fifteen seconds. This study goes beyond…

  12. Lifetime risk of pregnancy-related death among Zambian women: district-level estimates from the 2010 census

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banda, R.; Fossgard Sandøy, I.; Fylkesnes, K.; Janssen, F.

    The aim of this study was to examine district differentials in the lifetime risk of pregnancy-related death among females aged 15–49 in Zambia. We used data on household deaths collected in the 2010 census to estimate the lifetime risk of pregnancy-related death among females in Zambia. Using

  13. Mental health of a police force: estimating prevalence of work-related depression in Australia without a direct national measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Katrina J; Rodwell, John J; Noblet, Andrew J

    2012-06-01

    The risk of work-related depression in Australia was estimated based on a survey of 631 police officers. Psychological wellbeing and psychological distress items were mapped onto a measure of depression to identify optimal cutoff points. Based on a sample of police officers, Australian workers, in general, are at risk of depression when general psychological wellbeing is considerably compromised. Large-scale estimation of work-related depression in the broader population of employed persons in Australia is reasonable. The relatively high prevalence of depression among police officers emphasizes the need to examine prevalence rates of depression among Australian employees.

  14. Estimating Population Turnover Rates by Relative Quantification Methods Reveals Microbial Dynamics in Marine Sediment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevorkian, Richard; Bird, Jordan T; Shumaker, Alexander; Lloyd, Karen G

    2018-01-01

    The difficulty involved in quantifying biogeochemically significant microbes in marine sediments limits our ability to assess interspecific interactions, population turnover times, and niches of uncultured taxa. We incubated surface sediments from Cape Lookout Bight, North Carolina, USA, anoxically at 21°C for 122 days. Sulfate decreased until day 68, after which methane increased, with hydrogen concentrations consistent with the predicted values of an electron donor exerting thermodynamic control. We measured turnover times using two relative quantification methods, quantitative PCR (qPCR) and the product of 16S gene read abundance and total cell abundance (FRAxC, which stands for "fraction of read abundance times cells"), to estimate the population turnover rates of uncultured clades. Most 16S rRNA reads were from deeply branching uncultured groups, and ∼98% of 16S rRNA genes did not abruptly shift in relative abundance when sulfate reduction gave way to methanogenesis. Uncultured Methanomicrobiales and Methanosarcinales increased at the onset of methanogenesis with population turnover times estimated from qPCR at 9.7 ± 3.9 and 12.6 ± 4.1 days, respectively. These were consistent with FRAxC turnover times of 9.4 ± 5.8 and 9.2 ± 3.5 days, respectively. Uncultured Syntrophaceae , which are possibly fermentative syntrophs of methanogens, and uncultured Kazan-3A-21 archaea also increased at the onset of methanogenesis, with FRAxC turnover times of 14.7 ± 6.9 and 10.6 ± 3.6 days. Kazan-3A-21 may therefore either perform methanogenesis or form a fermentative syntrophy with methanogens. Three genera of sulfate-reducing bacteria, Desulfovibrio , Desulfobacter , and Desulfobacterium , increased in the first 19 days before declining rapidly during sulfate reduction. We conclude that population turnover times on the order of days can be measured robustly in organic-rich marine sediment, and the transition from sulfate-reducing to methanogenic conditions stimulates

  15. Relative contributions of sampling effort, measuring, and weighing to precision of larval sea lamprey biomass estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slade, Jeffrey W.; Adams, Jean V.; Cuddy, Douglas W.; Neave, Fraser B.; Sullivan, W. Paul; Young, Robert J.; Fodale, Michael F.; Jones, Michael L.

    2003-01-01

    We developed two weight-length models from 231 populations of larval sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) collected from tributaries of the Great Lakes: Lake Ontario (21), Lake Erie (6), Lake Huron (67), Lake Michigan (76), and Lake Superior (61). Both models were mixed models, which used population as a random effect and additional environmental factors as fixed effects. We resampled weights and lengths 1,000 times from data collected in each of 14 other populations not used to develop the models, obtaining a weight and length distribution from reach resampling. To test model performance, we applied the two weight-length models to the resampled length distributions and calculated the predicted mean weights. We also calculated the observed mean weight for each resampling and for each of the original 14 data sets. When the average of predicted means was compared to means from the original data in each stream, inclusion of environmental factors did not consistently improve the performance of the weight-length model. We estimated the variance associated with measures of abundance and mean weight for each of the 14 selected populations and determined that a conservative estimate of the proportional contribution to variance associated with estimating abundance accounted for 32% to 95% of the variance (mean = 66%). Variability in the biomass estimate appears more affected by variability in estimating abundance than in converting length to weight. Hence, efforts to improve the precision of biomass estimates would be aided most by reducing the variability associated with estimating abundance.

  16. The relative impact of baryons and cluster shape on weak lensing mass estimates of galaxy clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, B. E.; Le Brun, A. M. C.; Haq, M. E.; Deering, N. J.; King, L. J.; Applegate, D.; McCarthy, I. G.

    2018-05-01

    Weak gravitational lensing depends on the integrated mass along the line of sight. Baryons contribute to the mass distribution of galaxy clusters and the resulting mass estimates from lensing analysis. We use the cosmo-OWLS suite of hydrodynamic simulations to investigate the impact of baryonic processes on the bias and scatter of weak lensing mass estimates of clusters. These estimates are obtained by fitting NFW profiles to mock data using MCMC techniques. In particular, we examine the difference in estimates between dark matter-only runs and those including various prescriptions for baryonic physics. We find no significant difference in the mass bias when baryonic physics is included, though the overall mass estimates are suppressed when feedback from AGN is included. For lowest-mass systems for which a reliable mass can be obtained (M200 ≈ 2 × 1014M⊙), we find a bias of ≈-10 per cent. The magnitude of the bias tends to decrease for higher mass clusters, consistent with no bias for the most massive clusters which have masses comparable to those found in the CLASH and HFF samples. For the lowest mass clusters, the mass bias is particularly sensitive to the fit radii and the limits placed on the concentration prior, rendering reliable mass estimates difficult. The scatter in mass estimates between the dark matter-only and the various baryonic runs is less than between different projections of individual clusters, highlighting the importance of triaxiality.

  17. The Effect of Uncertainty in Exposure Estimation on the Exposure-Response Relation between 1,3-Butadiene and Leukemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Maldonado

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: In a follow-up study of mortality among North American synthetic rubber industry workers, cumulative exposure to 1,3-butadiene was positively associated with leukemia. Problems with historical exposure estimation, however, may have distorted the association. To evaluate the impact of potential inaccuracies in exposure estimation, we conducted uncertainty analyses of the relation between cumulative exposure to butadiene and leukemia. We created the 1,000 sets of butadiene estimates using job-exposure matrices consisting of exposure values that corresponded to randomly selected percentiles of the approximate probability distribution of plant-, work area/job group-, and year specific butadiene ppm. We then analyzed the relation between cumulative exposure to butadiene and leukemia for each of the 1,000 sets of butadiene estimates. In the uncertainty analysis, the point estimate of the RR for the first non zero exposure category (>0–<37.5 ppm-years was most likely to be about 1.5. The rate ratio for the second exposure category (37.5–<184.7 ppm-years was most likely to range from 1.5 to 1.8. The RR for category 3 of exposure (184.7–<425.0 ppm-years was most likely between 2.1 and 3.0. The RR for the highest exposure category (425.0+ ppm-years was likely to be between 2.9 and 3.7. This range off RR point estimates can best be interpreted as a probability distribution that describes our uncertainty in RR point estimates due to uncertainty in exposure estimation. After considering the complete probability distributions of butadiene exposure estimates, the exposure-response association of butadiene and leukemia was maintained. This exercise was a unique example of how uncertainty analyses can be used to investigate and support an observed measure of effect when occupational exposure estimates are employed in the absence of direct exposure measurements.

  18. Estimating the relative water content of leaves in a cotton canopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderbilt, Vern; Daughtry, Craig; Kupinski, Meredith; Bradley, Christine; French, Andrew; Bronson, Kevin; Chipman, Russell; Dahlgren, Robert

    2017-08-01

    Remotely sensing plant canopy water status remains a long term goal of remote sensing research. Established approaches to estimating canopy water status — the Crop Water Stress Index, the Water Deficit Index and the Equivalent Water Thickness — involve measurements in the thermal or reflective infrared. Here we report plant water status estimates based upon analysis of polarized visible imagery of a cotton canopy measured by ground Multi-Spectral Polarization Imager (MSPI). Such estimators potentially provide access to the plant hydrological photochemistry that manifests scattering and absorption effects in the visible spectral region.

  19. Estimate of Venous Thromboembolism and Related-Deaths Attributable to the Use of Combined Oral Contraceptives in France

    OpenAIRE

    Tricotel, Aurore; Raguideau, Fanny; Collin, Cédric; Zureik, Mahmoud

    2014-01-01

    PURPOSE: To estimate the number of venous thromboembolic events and related-premature mortality (including immediate in-hospital lethality) attributable to the use of combined oral contraceptives in women aged 15 to 49 years-old between 2000 and 2011 in France. METHODS: French data on sales of combined oral contraceptives and on contraception behaviours from two national surveys conducted in 2000 and 2010 were combined to estimate the number of exposed women according to contraceptives genera...

  20. Estimating relations between temperature, relative humidity as independed variables and selected water quality parameters in Lake Manzala, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gehan A.H. Sallam

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In Egypt, Lake Manzala is the largest and the most productive lake of northern coastal lakes. In this study, the continuous measurements data of the Real Time Water Quality Monitoring stations in Lake Manzala were statistically analyzed to measure the regional and seasonal variations of the selected water quality parameters in relation to the change of air temperature and relative humidity. Simple formulas are elaborated using the DataFit software to predict the selected water quality parameters of the Lake including pH, Dissolved Oxygen (DO, Electrical Conductivity (EC, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS, Turbidity, and Chlorophyll as a function of air temperature, relative humidity and quantities and qualities of the drainage water that discharge into the lake. An empirical positive relation was found between air temperature and the relative humidity and pH, EC and TDS and negative relation with DO. There is no significant effect on the other two parameters of turbidity and chlorophyll.

  1. R2 TRI facilities with 1999-2011 risk related estimates throughout the census blockgroup

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset delineates the distribution of estimate risk from the TRI facilities for 1999 - 2011 throughout the census blockgroup of the region using Office of...

  2. EEG Beta Oscillations in the Temporoparietal Area Related to the Accuracy in Estimating Others' Preference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonghyeok Park

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Humans often attempt to predict what others prefer based on a narrow slice of experience, called thin-slicing. According to the theoretical bases for how humans can predict the preference of others, one tends to estimate the other's preference using a perceived difference between the other and self. Previous neuroimaging studies have revealed that the network of dorsal medial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC and right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ is related to the ability of predicting others' preference. However, it still remains unknown about the temporal patterns of neural activities for others' preference prediction through thin-slicing. To investigate such temporal aspects of neural activities, we investigated human electroencephalography (EEG recorded during the task of predicting the preference of others while only a facial picture of others was provided. Twenty participants (all female, average age: 21.86 participated in the study. In each trial of the task, participants were shown a picture of either a target person or self for 3 s, followed by the presentation of a movie poster over which participants predicted the target person's preference as liking or disliking. The time-frequency EEG analysis was employed to analyze temporal changes in the amplitudes of brain oscillations. Participants could predict others' preference for movies with accuracy of 56.89 ± 3.16% and 10 out of 20 participants exhibited prediction accuracy higher than a chance level (95% interval. There was a significant difference in the power of the parietal alpha (10~13 Hz oscillation 0.6~0.8 s after the onset of poster presentation between the cases when participants predicted others' preference and when they reported self-preference (p < 0.05. The power of brain oscillations at any frequency band and time period during the trial did not show a significant correlation with individual prediction accuracy. However, when we measured differences of the power between the

  3. Satisfaction and self-estimated performance in relation to indoor environmental parameters and building features

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wargocki, Pawel; Frontczak, Monika; Schiavon, Stefano

    2012-01-01

    The paper examines how satisfaction with indoor environmental parameters and building features affects satisfaction and self-estimated job performance. The analyses used subjective responses from around 50, 000 occupants collected mainly in US office buildings using a web-based survey administered...

  4. Noninvasive Vascular Displacement Estimation for Relative Elastic Modulus Reconstruction in Transversal Imaging Planes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris L. de Korte

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Atherosclerotic plaque rupture can initiate stroke or myocardial infarction. Lipid-rich plaques with thin fibrous caps have a higher risk to rupture than fibrotic plaques. Elastic moduli differ for lipid-rich and fibrous tissue and can be reconstructed using tissue displacements estimated from intravascular ultrasound radiofrequency (RF data acquisitions. This study investigated if modulus reconstruction is possible for noninvasive RF acquisitions of vessels in transverse imaging planes using an iterative 2D cross-correlation based displacement estimation algorithm. Furthermore, since it is known that displacements can be improved by compounding of displacements estimated at various beam steering angles, we compared the performance of the modulus reconstruction with and without compounding. For the comparison, simulated and experimental RF data were generated of various vessel-mimicking phantoms. Reconstruction errors were less than 10%, which seems adequate for distinguishing lipid-rich from fibrous tissue. Compounding outperformed single-angle reconstruction: the interquartile range of the reconstructed moduli for the various homogeneous phantom layers was approximately two times smaller. Additionally, the estimated lateral displacements were a factor of 2–3 better matched to the displacements corresponding to the reconstructed modulus distribution. Thus, noninvasive elastic modulus reconstruction is possible for transverse vessel cross sections using this cross-correlation method and is more accurate with compounding.

  5. Estimating study costs for use in VOI, a study of dutch publicly funded drug related research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Asselt, A.D.; Ramaekers, B.L.; Corro Ramos, I.; Joore, M.A.; Al, M.J.; Lesman-Leegte, I.; Postma, M.J.; Vemer, P.; Feenstra, T.F.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: To perform value of information (VOI) analyses, an estimate of research costs is needed. However, reference values for such costs are not available. This study aimed to analyze empirical data on research budgets and, by means of a cost tool, provide an overview of costs of several types

  6. Prevalence Estimates for Pharmacological Neuroenhancement in Austrian University Students: Its Relation to Health-Related Risk Attitude and the Framing Effect of Caffeine Tablets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Dietz

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Pharmacological neuroenhancement (PN is defined as the use of illicit or prescription drugs by healthy individuals for cognitive-enhancing purposes. The present study aimed (i to investigate whether including caffeine tablets in the definition of PN within a questionnaire increases the PN prevalence estimate (framing effect, (ii to investigate whether the health-related risk attitude is increased in students who use PN.Materials and methods: Two versions of a paper-and-pencil questionnaire (first version included caffeine tablets in the definition of PN, the second excluded caffeine tablets were distributed among university students at the University of Graz, Austria. The unrelated question model (UQM was used to estimate the 12-month PN prevalence and the German version of the 30-item Domain-Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT scale to assess the health-related risk attitude. Moreover, large-sample z-tests (α = 0.05 were performed for comparing the PN prevalence estimates of two groups.Results: Two thousand four hundred and eighty-nine questionnaires were distributed and 2,284 (91.8% questionnaires were included in analysis. The overall PN prevalence estimate for all students was 11.9%. One-tailed large-sample z-tests revealed that the PN estimate for students with higher health-related risk attitude was significantly higher compared to students with lower health-related risk attitude (15.6 vs. 8.5%; z = 2.65, p = 0.004. Furthermore, when caffeine tablets were included into the example of PN, the prevalence estimate of PN was significantly higher compared to the version without caffeine tablets (14.9 vs. 9.0%; z = 2.20, p = 0.014.Discussion: This study revealed that the PN prevalence estimate increases when caffeine tablets are included in the definition of PN. Therefore, future studies investigating the prevalence of, and predictors for, PN should be performed and interpreted with respect to potential framing effects. This study further

  7. Using speeding detections and numbers of fatalities to estimate relative risk of a fatality for motorcyclists and car drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggins, Richard

    2013-10-01

    Precise estimation of the relative risk of motorcyclists being involved in a fatal accident compared to car drivers is difficult. Simple estimates based on the proportions of licenced drivers or riders that are killed in a fatal accident are biased as they do not take into account the exposure to risk. However, exposure is difficult to quantify. Here we adapt the ideas behind the well known induced exposure methods and use available summary data on speeding detections and fatalities for motorcycle riders and car drivers to estimate the relative risk of a fatality for motorcyclists compared to car drivers under mild assumptions. The method is applied to data on motorcycle riders and car drivers in Victoria, Australia in 2010 and a small simulation study is conducted. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Contributions of national and global health estimates to monitoring health-related sustainable development goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Limwattananon, Supon; Kusreesakul, Khanitta; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

    2016-01-01

    The millennium development goals triggered an increased demand for data on child and maternal mortalities for monitoring progress. With the advent of the sustainable development goals and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition toward non-communicable diseases, policymakers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper discusses lessons learned from Thailand's burden of disease (BOD) study on capacity development on NHEs and discusses the contributions and limitations of GHEs in informing policies at the country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and subnational levels. Initially, the quality of cause-of-death reporting in death certificates was inadequate, especially for deaths occurring in the community. Verbal autopsies were conducted, using domestic resources, to determine probable causes of deaths occurring in the community. This method helped to improve the estimation of years of life lost. Since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002, the quality of clinical data on morbidities has also considerably improved. There are significant discrepancies between the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study estimates for Thailand and the 1999 nationally generated BOD, especially for years of life lost due to HIV/AIDS, and the ranking of priority diseases. National ownership of NHEs and an effective interface between researchers and decision-makers contribute to enhanced country policy responses, whereas subnational data are intended to be used by various subnational partners. Although GHEs contribute to benchmarking country achievement compared with global health

  9. Impact of work-related cancers in Taiwan-Estimation with QALY (quality-adjusted life year) and healthcare costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Lukas Jyuhn-Hsiarn; Lin, Cheng-Kuan; Hung, Mei-Chuan; Wang, Jung-Der

    2016-12-01

    This study estimates the annual numbers of eight work-related cancers, total losses of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and lifetime healthcare expenditures that possibly could be saved by improving occupational health in Taiwan. Three databases were interlinked: the Taiwan Cancer Registry, the National Mortality Registry, and the National Health Insurance Research Database. Annual numbers of work-related cancers were estimated based on attributable fractions (AFs) abstracted from a literature review. The survival functions for eight cancers were estimated and extrapolated to lifetime using a semi-parametric method. A convenience sample of 8846 measurements of patients' quality of life with EQ-5D was collected for utility values and multiplied by survival functions to estimate quality-adjusted life expectancies (QALEs). The loss-of-QALE was obtained by subtracting the QALE of cancer from age- and sex-matched referents simulated from national vital statistics. The lifetime healthcare expenditures were estimated by multiplying the survival probability with mean monthly costs paid by the National Health Insurance for cancer diagnosis and treatment and summing this for the expected lifetime. A total of 3010 males and 726 females with eight work-related cancers were estimated in 2010. Among them, lung cancer ranked first in terms of QALY loss, with an annual total loss-of-QALE of 28,463 QALYs and total lifetime healthcare expenditures of US$36.6 million. Successful prevention of eight work-related cancers would not only avoid the occurrence of 3736 cases of cancer, but would also save more than US$70 million in healthcare costs and 46,750 QALYs for the Taiwan society in 2010.

  10. Estimating differential reproductive success from nests of related individuals, with application to a study of the Mottled Sculpin, Cottus bairdi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beatrix Jones; Gary D. Grossman; Daniel C.I. Walsh; Brady A. Porter; John C. Avise; Anthony C. Flumera

    2007-01-01

    Understanding how variation in reproductive success is related to demography is a critical component in understanding the life history of an organism. Parentage analysis using molecular markers can be used to estimate the reproductive success of different groups of individuals in natural populations. Previous models have been developed for cases where offspring are...

  11. Estimating the costs of work-related accidents and ill-health: An analysis of European data sources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heuvel, S. van den; Zwaan, L. van der; Dam, L. van; Oude Hengel, K.M.; Eekhout, I.; Emmerik, M.L. van; Oldenburg, C.; Brück, C.; Janowski, P.; Wilhelm, C.

    2017-01-01

    This report presents the results of a survey of national and international data sources on the costs of work-related injuries, illnesses and deaths. The aim was to evaluate the quality and comparability of different sources as a first step towards estimating the costs of accidents and ill-health at

  12. Estimating the mediating effect of different biomarkers on the relation of alcohol consumption with the risk of type 2 diabetes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beulens, J.W.J.; Schouw, van der Y.T.; Moons, K.G.M.; Boshuizen, H.C.; A, van der D.L.; Groenwold, R.H.H.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a reduced type 2 diabetes risk, but the biomarkers that explain this relation are unknown. The most commonly used method to estimate the proportion explained by a biomarker is the difference method. However, influence of alcohol–biomarker

  13. Estimation of relative biological effectiveness for low energy protons using cytogenetic end points in mammalian cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhat, N.N.; Nairy, Rajesh; Chaurasia, Rajesh; Desai, Utkarsha; Shirsath, K.B.; Anjaria, K.B.; Sreedevi, B.

    2013-01-01

    A facility has been designed and developed to facilitate irradiation of biological samples to proton beam using folded tandem ion accelerator (FOTIA) at BARC. The primary proton beam from the accelerator was diffused using gold foil and channelled through a drift tube. Scattered beam was monitored and calibrated. Uniformity and dosimetry studies were conducted to calibrate the setup for precise irradiation of mammalian cells. Irradiation conditions and geometry were optimized for mammalian cells and other biological samples in thin layer. The irradiation facility is housed in a clean air laminar flow to help exposure of samples in aseptic conditions. The set up has been used for studying various radiobiological endpoints in many biological model systems. CHO, MCF-7, A-549 and INT-407 cell lines were studied in the present investigation using micronucleus (MN) induction as an indicator of radiation damage. The mammalian cells grown on petri plates to about 40 % confluence (log phase) were exposed to proton beam of known doses in the range of 0.1 to 2 Gy. The dose estimation was done based on specific ionization in cell medium. Studies were also conducted using 60 Co gamma radiation to compare the results. Linear quadratic response was observed for all the cell lines when exposed to 60 Co gamma radiation. In contrast, linear response was observed for proton beam. In addition, very significant increase in the MN yield was observed for proton beam compared to 60 Co gamma radiation. Estimated α and β values for CHO cells is found to be 0.02±0.003 Gy-1 and 0.042±0.006 Gy-2 respectively for 60 Co gamma radiation. For proton beam, estimated α for linear fit is found to be 0.37±0.011 Gy-1. Estimated RBE was found to be in the range of 4-8 for all the cell lines and dose ranges studied. In conclusion, the proton irradiation facility developed for mammalian cells has helped to study various radiobiological endpoints. In this presentation, facility description, MN as

  14. Estimated doses related to 222Rn concentration in bunker for radiotherapy and storage of radioisotopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mestre, Freddy; Carrizales-Silva, Lila; Sajo-Bohus, Laszlo; Diaz, Cruz

    2013-01-01

    It was done a survey in radiotherapy services underground hospitals and clinics of Venezuela and Paraguay in order to estimate the concentrations of radon and its possible consequences on worker occupational exposure. Passive dosimeters were used to assess nuclear traces (NTD type CR-39®). The concentration of 222 Rn is determined based on the density of traces using the calibration coefficient of 1 tr/cm 2 equivalent to 0,434 Bqm -3 per month of exposure. Assuming the most likely environmental conditions and the dose conversion factor equal to 9.0 x 10 -6 mSv h -1 by Bqm -3 , it was determined the average values and estimated the possible risks to health that are on average 3.0 mSva -1 and 150 micro risk cancer

  15. Relations estimate between investment in digital media and financial variables of companies: a Colombian overview

    OpenAIRE

    Amalia Novoa Hoyos; Mauricio Sabogal Salamanca; Camilo Vargas Walteros

    2016-01-01

    This article shows a first estimate about the relationship between investment in digital media and some financial variables in Colombia. First, a literature review is made about the impact of marketing and digital marketing in Company performance. Then, an analysis of the sectorial variables such as liquidity, profitability, indebtedness and concentration in sectors like food, personal grooming, automotive, drinking and tobacco, construction, entertainment, furniture, services, telecommunicat...

  16. Thermal stress estimation in relation to spalling of HSC restrained with steel rings at high temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanibe T.

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports on an experimental study regarding the behavior of steel ring-restrained concrete in response to fire exposure. The study was conducted to enable estimation of thermal stress based on steel ring strain in such concrete under the conditions of a RABT 30 heating curve. The specimens used were made from high-strength concrete (Fc: 80 MPa restrained using steel rings with thicknesses of 0.5, 8 and 18 mm.

  17. Estimating the relation between groundwater and river water by measuring the concentration of Rn-222

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoneda, Minoru; Morisawa, Shinsuke [Kyoto Univ. (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

    1997-02-01

    This study aimed to estimate the relationship between groundwater in shallow layer and river water by determining the concentrations of {sup 222}Rn and nitric nitrogen along with water temperature. The region around ca. 20 km along river A in a certain basin was chosen as a test area. The Rn concentration of groundwater was determined by Rn extracting with toluene and counting in liquid scintillation counter, whereas for river water, it was determined by activated charcoal passive collector method developed by the authors, by which the amount of Rn adsorbed on activated charcoal was estimated by Ge-solid state detector. In addition, water temperature and nitric nitrogen concentration were measured at various points in the test area. Thus, a distribution map of the three parameters was made on the basis of the data obtained in December, 1989. Since Rn concentration is generally higher in ground water than river water and the water temperature in December is higher in the former, it seems likely that the concentrations of Rn and nitric nitrogen would become higher in the area where ground water soaks into river water. Thus, the directions of ground water flow at the respective sites along river A were estimated from the data regarding the properties of ground water. (M.N.)

  18. Sampling Error in Relation to Cyst Nematode Population Density Estimation in Small Field Plots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Župunski, Vesna; Jevtić, Radivoje; Jokić, Vesna Spasić; Župunski, Ljubica; Lalošević, Mirjana; Ćirić, Mihajlo; Ćurčić, Živko

    2017-06-01

    Cyst nematodes are serious plant-parasitic pests which could cause severe yield losses and extensive damage. Since there is still very little information about error of population density estimation in small field plots, this study contributes to the broad issue of population density assessment. It was shown that there was no significant difference between cyst counts of five or seven bulk samples taken per each 1-m 2 plot, if average cyst count per examined plot exceeds 75 cysts per 100 g of soil. Goodness of fit of data to probability distribution tested with χ 2 test confirmed a negative binomial distribution of cyst counts for 21 out of 23 plots. The recommended measure of sampling precision of 17% expressed through coefficient of variation ( cv ) was achieved if the plots of 1 m 2 contaminated with more than 90 cysts per 100 g of soil were sampled with 10-core bulk samples taken in five repetitions. If plots were contaminated with less than 75 cysts per 100 g of soil, 10-core bulk samples taken in seven repetitions gave cv higher than 23%. This study indicates that more attention should be paid on estimation of sampling error in experimental field plots to ensure more reliable estimation of population density of cyst nematodes.

  19. Third molar mineralization in relation to chronologic age estimation of the Han in central southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ying; Geng, Kun; Chu, Yanhao; Xu, Mindi; Zha, Lagabaiyila

    2018-03-03

    The purpose of this study is to provide a forensic reference data about estimating chronologic age by evaluating the third molar mineralization of Han in central southern China. The mineralization degree of third molars was assessed by Demirjian's classification with modification for 2519 digital orthopantomograms (1190 males, 1329 females; age 8-23 years). The mean ages of the initial mineralization and the crown completion of third molars were around 9.66 and 13.88 years old in males and 9.52 and 14.09 years old in females. The minimum ages of apical closure were around 16 years in both sexes. Twenty-eight at stage C and stage G and 38 and 48 at stage F occurred earlier in males than in females. There was no significant difference between maxillary and mandibular teeth in males and females except that stage C in males. Two formulas were devised to estimate age based on mineralization stages and sexes. In Hunan Province, the person will probably be over age 14, when a third molar reaches the stage G. The results of the study could provide reference for age estimation in forensic cases and clinical dentistry.

  20. Practical state of health estimation of power batteries based on Delphi method and grey relational grade analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Bingxiang; Jiang, Jiuchun; Zheng, Fangdan; Zhao, Wei; Liaw, Bor Yann; Ruan, Haijun; Han, Zhiqiang; Zhang, Weige

    2015-05-01

    The state of health (SOH) estimation is very critical to battery management system to ensure the safety and reliability of EV battery operation. Here, we used a unique hybrid approach to enable complex SOH estimations. The approach hybridizes the Delphi method known for its simplicity and effectiveness in applying weighting factors for complicated decision-making and the grey relational grade analysis (GRGA) for multi-factor optimization. Six critical factors were used in the consideration for SOH estimation: peak power at 30% state-of-charge (SOC), capacity, the voltage drop at 30% SOC with a C/3 pulse, the temperature rises at the end of discharge and charge at 1C; respectively, and the open circuit voltage at the end of charge after 1-h rest. The weighting of these factors for SOH estimation was scored by the 'experts' in the Delphi method, indicating the influencing power of each factor on SOH. The parameters for these factors expressing the battery state variations are optimized by GRGA. Eight battery cells were used to illustrate the principle and methodology to estimate the SOH by this hybrid approach, and the results were compared with those based on capacity and power capability. The contrast among different SOH estimations is discussed.

  1. Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 Post-Flight Navigation Performance Assessment Relative to the Best Estimated Trajectory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gay, Robert S.; Holt, Greg N.; Zanetti, Renato

    2016-01-01

    This paper details the post-flight navigation performance assessment of the Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1). Results of each flight phase are presented: Ground Align, Ascent, Orbit, and Entry Descent and Landing. This study examines the on-board Kalman Filter uncertainty along with state deviations relative to the Best Estimated Trajectory (BET). Overall the results show that the Orion Navigation System performed as well or better than expected. Specifically, the Global Positioning System (GPS) measurement availability was significantly better than anticipated at high altitudes. In addition, attitude estimation via processing GPS measurements along with Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) data performed very well and maintained good attitude throughout the mission.

  2. Lattice energy calculation - A quick tool for screening of cocrystals and estimation of relative solubility. Case of flavonoids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuleshova, L. N.; Hofmann, D. W. M.; Boese, R.

    2013-03-01

    Cocrystals (or multicomponent crystals) have physico-chemical properties that are different from crystals of pure components. This is significant in drug development, since the desired properties, e.g. solubility, stability and bioavailability, can be tailored by binding two substances into a single crystal without chemical modification of an active component. Here, the FLEXCRYST program suite, implemented with a data mining force field, was used to estimate the relative stability and, consequently, the relative solubility of cocrystals of flavonoids vs their pure crystals, stored in the Cambridge Structural Database. The considerable potency of this approach for in silico screening of cocrystals, as well as their relative solubility, was demonstrated.

  3. Estimation of rice yield affected by drought and relation between rice yield and TVDI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongo, C.; Tamura, E.; Sigit, G.

    2016-12-01

    Impact of climate change is not only seen on food production but also on food security and sustainable development of society. Adaptation to climate change is a pressing issue throughout the world to reduce the risks along with the plans and strategies for food security and sustainable development. As a key adaptation to the climate change, agricultural insurance is expected to play an important role in stabilizing agricultural production through compensating the losses caused by the climate change. As the adaptation, the Government of Indonesia has launched agricultural insurance program for damage of rice by drought, flood and pest and disease. The Government started a pilot project in 2013 and this year the pilot project has been extended to 22 provinces. Having the above as background, we conducted research on development of new damage assessment method for rice using remote sensing data which could be used for evaluation of damage ratio caused by drought in West Java, Indonesia. For assessment of the damage ratio, estimation of rice yield is a key. As the result of our study, rice yield affected by drought in dry season could be estimated at level of 1 % significance using SPOT 7 data taken in 2015, and the validation result was 0.8t/ha. Then, the decrease ratio in rice yield about each individual paddy field was calculated using data of the estimated result and the average yield of the past 10 years. In addition, TVDI (Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index) which was calculated from Landsat8 data in heading season indicated the dryness in low yield area. The result suggests that rice yield was affected by irrigation water shortage around heading season as a result of the decreased precipitation by El Nino. Through our study, it becomes clear that the utilization of remote sensing data can be promising for assessment of the damage ratio of rice production precisely, quickly and quantitatively, and also it can be incorporated into the insurance procedures.

  4. Relative and single particle diffusion estimates determined from smoke plume photographs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nappo, C.J. Jr.

    1978-01-01

    The formula given by Gifford (1959) for obtaining space-varying values of particle dispersion parameters from photographs of smoke puffs and plumes has been applied to high-altitude U-2 photographs of a long smoke plume generated at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory near Idaho Falls. The turbulence time scale derived from the photographs was found to be in good agreement with estimates obtained within the framework of single- and two-particle diffusion theory applied to wind speed and direction data from a tower near the smoke source

  5. Relations estimate between investment in digital media and financial variables of companies: a Colombian overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amalia Novoa Hoyos

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This article shows a first estimate about the relationship between investment in digital media and some financial variables in Colombia. First, a literature review is made about the impact of marketing and digital marketing in Company performance. Then, an analysis of the sectorial variables such as liquidity, profitability, indebtedness and concentration in sectors like food, personal grooming, automotive, drinking and tobacco, construction, entertainment, furniture, services, telecommunication, tourism and clothing using the technique of ordinary squared minimums (OSM in the years 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. For this study, investment in digital media in the above- mentioned years is also taken into account.

  6. Weighing up crime: the over estimation of drug-related crime

    OpenAIRE

    Stevens, Alex

    2008-01-01

    Background: It is generally accepted that harms from crime cause a very large part of the total social harm that can be attributed to drug use. For example, crime harms accounted for 70% of the weighting of the British Drug Harm Index in 2004. This paper explores the linkage of criminal harm to drug use and challenges the current overestimation of the proportion of crime that can be causally attributed to drug use. It particularly examines the use of data from arrested drug users to estimate ...

  7. Calibrated Tully-fisher Relations For Improved Photometric Estimates Of Disk Rotation Velocities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reyes, Reinabelle; Mandelbaum, R.; Gunn, J. E.; Pizagno II, Jim

    We present calibrated scaling relations (also referred to as Tully-Fisher relations or TFRs) between rotation velocity and photometric quantities-- absolute magnitude, stellar mass, and synthetic magnitude (a linear combination of absolute magnitude and color)-- of disk galaxies at z 0.1. First, we

  8. Validation of traffic-related air pollution exposure estimates for long-term studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Roosbroeck, S.

    2007-01-01

    This thesis describes a series of studies that investigate the validity of using outdoor concentrations and/or traffic-related indicator exposure variables as a measure for exposure assessment in epidemiological studies on the long-term effect of traffic-related air pollution. A pilot study was

  9. A statistical estimator for the boiler power and its related parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, H.

    2001-01-01

    To determine the boiler power accurately is important for both controlling the plant and maximizing the plant productivity. There are two computed boiler powers for each boiler. They are steam based boiler power and feedwater based boiler power. The steam based boiler power is computed as the enthalpy difference between the feedwater enthalpy and the boiler steam enthalpy. The feedwater based boiler power is computed as enthalpy absorbed by the feedwater. The steam based boiler power is computed in RRS program and used in calibrating the measured reactor power, while the feedwater based boiler power is computed in CSTAT program and used for indication. Since the steam based boiler power is used as feedback in the reactor control, it is chosen to be the one estimated in this work. Because the boiler power employs steam flow, feedwater flow and feedwater temperature measurements, and because any measurement contains constant or drifting noise and bias, the reconciliation and rectification procedures are needed to determine the boiler power more accurately. A statistic estimator is developed to perform the function of data reconciliation, gross error detection and instruments performance monitoring

  10. Landsat Imagery-Based Above Ground Biomass Estimation and Change Investigation Related to Human Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaofan Wu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Forest biomass is a significant indicator for substance accumulation and forest succession, and a spatiotemporal biomass map would provide valuable information for forest management and scientific planning. In this study, Landsat imagery and field data cooperated with a random forest regression approach were used to estimate spatiotemporal Above Ground Biomass (AGB in Fuyang County, Zhejiang Province of East China. As a result, the AGB retrieval showed an increasing trend for the past decade, from 74.24 ton/ha in 2004 to 99.63 ton/ha in 2013. Topography and forest management were investigated to find their relationships with the spatial distribution change of biomass. In general, the simulated AGB increases with higher elevation, especially in the range of 80–200 m, wherein AGB acquires the highest increase rate. Moreover, the forest policy of ecological forest has a positive effect on the AGB increase, particularly within the national level ecological forest. The result in this study demonstrates that human activities have a great impact on biomass distribution and change tendency. Furthermore, Landsat image-based biomass estimates would provide illuminating information for forest policy-making and sustainable development.

  11. Observing expertise-related actions leads to perfect time flow estimations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yin-Hua Chen

    Full Text Available The estimation of the time of exposure of a picture portraying an action increases as a function of the amount of movement implied in the action represented. This effect suggests that the perceiver creates an internal embodiment of the action observed as if internally simulating the entire movement sequence. Little is known however about the timing accuracy of these internal action simulations, specifically whether they are affected by the level of familiarity and experience that the observer has of the action. In this study we asked professional pianists to reproduce different durations of exposure (shorter or longer than one second of visual displays both specific (a hand in piano-playing action and non-specific to their domain of expertise (a hand in finger-thumb opposition and scrambled-pixels and compared their performance with non-pianists. Pianists outperformed non-pianists independently of the time of exposure of the stimuli; remarkably the group difference was particularly magnified by the pianists' enhanced accuracy and stability only when observing the hand in the act of playing the piano. These results for the first time provide evidence that through musical training, pianists create a selective and self-determined dynamic internal representation of an observed movement that allows them to estimate precisely its temporal duration.

  12. Importance of chemical speciation of iodine in relation to dose estimates from 129I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheppard, S.C.

    1996-12-01

    Biota live in a chemical milieu and take up elements according to laws of chemistry and physics. Radioactivity is not important to accumulation processes. However, for radionuclides it is almost always the radiological consequences that are important. As such, most discussions and modelling of the processes of distribution, exposure and consequences tend to deal with radionuclides and do not dwell on chemistry. In fact, the chemical aspects of dose estimation are dealt with quite adequately, but usually in an implicit rather than explicit manner. This report discusses the chemistry and chemical speciation of iodine (1) and illustrates how these topics have been implicitly included in biosphere models such as BIOTRAC, the model employed in the assessment of Canada's nuclear fuel waste disposal concept. Iodine is emphasized because 129 I is the dominant contributor to the hypothetical doses estimated. Not all aspects of the behaviour of 1 are implicit in BIOTRAC, but the exceptions are of minor importance. In general, the very broad ranges in parameter values specified for BIOTRAC encompass substantial latitude for the possible effects of chemical behaviour and speciation. Nonetheless, detailed understanding of the behavior of 1 in the environment is essential to the credibility of models such as BIOTRAC. There is substantial room for improved knowledge of the speciation of I, especially in freshwater and soil environments. (author)

  13. Spatial variations in estimated chronic exposure to traffic-related air pollution in working populations: A simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cloutier-Fisher Denise

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chronic exposure to traffic-related air pollution is associated with a variety of health impacts in adults and recent studies show that exposure varies spatially, with some residents in a community more exposed than others. A spatial exposure simulation model (SESM which incorporates six microenvironments (home indoor, work indoor, other indoor, outdoor, in-vehicle to work and in-vehicle other is described and used to explore spatial variability in estimates of exposure to traffic-related nitrogen dioxide (not including indoor sources for working people. The study models spatial variability in estimated exposure aggregated at the census tracts level for 382 census tracts in the Greater Vancouver Regional District of British Columbia, Canada. Summary statistics relating to the distributions of the estimated exposures are compared visually through mapping. Observed variations are explored through analyses of model inputs. Results Two sources of spatial variability in exposure to traffic-related nitrogen dioxide were identified. Median estimates of total exposure ranged from 8 μg/m3 to 35 μg/m3 of annual average hourly NO2 for workers in different census tracts in the study area. Exposure estimates are highest where ambient pollution levels are highest. This reflects the regional gradient of pollution in the study area and the relatively high percentage of time spent at home locations. However, for workers within the same census tract, variations were observed in the partial exposure estimates associated with time spent outside the residential census tract. Simulation modeling shows that some workers may have exposures 1.3 times higher than other workers residing in the same census tract because of time spent away from the residential census tract, and that time spent in work census tracts contributes most to the differences in exposure. Exposure estimates associated with the activity of commuting by vehicle to work were

  14. Estimating material parameters of a structurally based constitutive relation for skin mechanics

    KAUST Repository

    Jor, Jessica W. Y.; Nash, Martyn P.; Nielsen, Poul M. F.; Hunter, Peter J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a structurally based modeling framework to characterize the structure-function relation in skin tissues, based upon biaxial tensile experiments performed in vitro on porcine skin. Equi-axial deformations were imposed

  15. Fast joint detection-estimation of evoked brain activity in event-related FMRI using a variational approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaari, Lotfi; Vincent, Thomas; Forbes, Florence; Dojat, Michel; Ciuciu, Philippe

    2013-01-01

    In standard within-subject analyses of event-related fMRI data, two steps are usually performed separately: detection of brain activity and estimation of the hemodynamic response. Because these two steps are inherently linked, we adopt the so-called region-based Joint Detection-Estimation (JDE) framework that addresses this joint issue using a multivariate inference for detection and estimation. JDE is built by making use of a regional bilinear generative model of the BOLD response and constraining the parameter estimation by physiological priors using temporal and spatial information in a Markovian model. In contrast to previous works that use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to sample the resulting intractable posterior distribution, we recast the JDE into a missing data framework and derive a Variational Expectation-Maximization (VEM) algorithm for its inference. A variational approximation is used to approximate the Markovian model in the unsupervised spatially adaptive JDE inference, which allows automatic fine-tuning of spatial regularization parameters. It provides a new algorithm that exhibits interesting properties in terms of estimation error and computational cost compared to the previously used MCMC-based approach. Experiments on artificial and real data show that VEM-JDE is robust to model mis-specification and provides computational gain while maintaining good performance in terms of activation detection and hemodynamic shape recovery. PMID:23096056

  16. Design-related bias in estimates of accuracy when comparing imaging tests: examples from breast imaging research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houssami, Nehmat; Ciatto, Stefano

    2010-01-01

    This work highlights concepts on the potential for design-related factors to bias estimates of test accuracy in comparative imaging research. We chose two design factors, selection of eligible subjects and the reference standard, to examine the effect of design limitations on estimates of accuracy. Estimates of sensitivity in a study of the comparative accuracy of mammography and ultrasound differed according to how subjects were selected. Comparison of a new imaging test with an existing test should distinguish whether the new test is to be used as a replacement for, or as an adjunct to, the conventional test, to guide the method for subject selection. Quality of the reference standard, examined in a meta-analysis of preoperative breast MRI, varied across studies and was associated with estimates of incremental accuracy. Potential solutions to deal with the reference standard are outlined where an ideal reference standard may not be available in all subjects. These examples of breast imaging research demonstrate that design-related bias, when comparing a new imaging test with a conventional imaging test, may bias accuracy in a direction that favours the new test by overestimating the accuracy of the new test or by underestimating that of the conventional test. (orig.)

  17. Estimating particulate matter health impact related to the combustion of different fossil fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuenen, Jeroen; Kranenburg, Richard; Hendriks, Carlijn; Schaap, Martijn; Gschwind, Benoit; Lefevre, Mireille; Blanc, Isabelle; Drebszok, Kamila; Wyrwa, Artur; Stetter, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    Exposure to particulate matter (PM) in ambient air leads to adverse health effects. To design cost effective mitigation strategies, a thorough understanding of the sources of particulate matter is crucial. We have successfully generated a web map service that allows to access information on fuel dependent health effects due to particulate matter. For this purpose, the LOTOS-EUROS air pollution model was equipped with a source apportionment module that tracks the origin of the modelled particulate matter distributions thoughout a simulation. Combined with a dedicated emission inventory PM2.5 maps specified by fuel type were generated for 2007-2009. These maps were combined with a health impact calculation to estimate Lost of Life Expectancy for each fuel categories. An user friendly web client was generated to access the results and use the web mapping service in an easy manner. (orig.)

  18. Relative index of inequality and slope index of inequality: a structured regression framework for estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moreno-Betancur, Margarita; Latouche, Aurélien; Menvielle, Gwenn; Kunst, Anton E.; Rey, Grégoire

    2015-01-01

    The relative index of inequality and the slope index of inequality are the two major indices used in epidemiologic studies for the measurement of socioeconomic inequalities in health. Yet the current definitions of these indices are not adapted to their main purpose, which is to provide summary

  19. A spatial compression technique for head-related transfer function interpolation and complexity estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shekarchi, Sayedali; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jakob; Hallam, John

    2015-01-01

    A head-related transfer function (HRTF) model employing Legendre polynomials (LPs) is evaluated as an HRTF spatial complexity indicator and interpolation technique in the azimuth plane. LPs are a set of orthogonal functions derived on the sphere which can be used to compress an HRTF dataset...

  20. Relating fire-caused change in forest structure to remotely sensed estimates of fire severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamie M. Lydersen; Brandon M. Collins; Jay D. Miller; Danny L. Fry; Scott L. Stephens

    2016-01-01

    Fire severity maps are an important tool for understanding fire effects on a landscape. The relative differenced normalized burn ratio (RdNBR) is a commonly used severity index in California forests, and is typically divided into four categories: unchanged, low, moderate, and high. RdNBR is often calculated twice--from images collected the year of the fire (initial...

  1. A simple method for estimating potential relative radiation (PRR) for landscape-vegetation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth B. Jr. Pierce; Todd Lookingbill; Dean. Urban

    2005-01-01

    Radiation is one of the primary influences on vegetation composition and spatial pattern. Topographic orientation is often used as a proxy for relative radiation load due to its effects on evaporative demand and local temperature. Common methods for incorporating this information (i.e., site measures of slope and aspect) fail to include daily or annual changes in solar...

  2. Estimation of storm runoff loads based on rainfall-related variables ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2004-11-19

    Nov 19, 2004 ... ... rainfall-related variables and power law models – Case study in Alexandra ... and appropriate technology for treating runoff and grey-water. To achieve this ... schools, and other open spaces take up 20% of the area. If the.

  3. Estimates of the temperature flux-temperature gradient relation above a sea floor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cimatoribus, A.; van Haren, H.

    2016-01-01

    The relation between the ux of temperature (or buoyancy), the verti-cal temperature gradient and the height above the bottom, is investigatedin an oceanographic context, using high-resolution temperature measure-ments. The model for the evolution of a strati?ed layer by Balmforthet al. (1998) is

  4. Estimation of utility weights for human papilloma virus-related health states according to disease severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ock, Minsu; Park, Jeong-Yeol; Son, Woo-Seung; Lee, Hyeon-Jeong; Kim, Seon-Ha; Jo, Min-Woo

    2016-11-28

    A cost-utility study of a human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccine requires that the utility weights for HPV-related health states (i.e., cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), cervical cancer, and condyloma) be evaluated. The aim of the present study was to determine the utility weights for HPV-related health states. Hypothetical standardised health states related to HPV were developed based on patient education material and previous publications. To fully reflect disease progression from diagnosis to prognosis, each health state comprised four parts (diagnosis, symptoms, treatment, and progression and prognosis). Nine-hundred members from the Korean general population evaluated the HPV-related health states using a visual analogue scale (VAS) and a standard gamble (SG) approach, which were administered face-to-face via computer-assisted interview. The mean utility values were calculated for each HPV-related health state. According to the VAS, the highest utility (0.73) was HPV-positive status, followed by condyloma (0.66), and CIN grade I (0.61). The lowest utility (0.18) was cervical cancer requiring chemotherapy without surgery, followed by cervical cancer requiring chemoradiation therapy (0.42). SG revealed that the highest utility (0.83) was HPV-positive status, followed by condyloma (0.78), and CIN grade I (0.77). The lowest utility (0.43) was cervical cancer requiring chemotherapy without surgery, followed by cervical cancer requiring chemoradiation therapy (0.60). This study was based on a large sample derived from the general Korean population; therefore, the calculated utility weights might be useful for evaluating the economic benefit of cancer screening and HPV vaccination programs.

  5. Techniques for estimating flood-depth frequency relations for streams in West Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, J.B.

    1987-01-01

    Multiple regression analyses are applied to data from 119 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow stations to develop equations that estimate baseline depth (depth of 50% flow duration) and 100-yr flood depth on unregulated streams in West Virginia. Drainage basin characteristics determined from the 100-yr flood depth analysis were used to develop 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 500-yr regional flood depth equations. Two regions with distinct baseline depth equations and three regions with distinct flood depth equations are delineated. Drainage area is the most significant independent variable found in the central and northern areas of the state where mean basin elevation also is significant. The equations are applicable to any unregulated site in West Virginia where values of independent variables are within the range evaluated for the region. Examples of inapplicable sites include those in reaches below dams, within and directly upstream from bridge or culvert constrictions, within encroached reaches, in karst areas, and where streams flow through lakes or swamps. (Author 's abstract)

  6. Relative estimates of TCA cycle pool size from 14CO2 production profiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelleher, J.K.; Cesta, M.L.; Holleran, A.L.

    1986-01-01

    In metabolic and isotopic steady state, the rate of 14 CO 2 production by TCA cycle intermediates labeled at different positions is linear. However, before the system reaches isotopic steady state, the rate of 14 CO 2 production is non-linear. The x-intercept extrapolated from the linear phase indicates the turnover rate of all metabolic pools the tracer must pass through. By exposing identical systems to 14 C succinate labeled in different positions, the contribution of TCA cycle pools to the non-linear phase may be considered. Specifically, the extrapolated x-intercept for [2,3 14 C] succinate will be greater than the x-intercept for [1,4 14 C] succinate if the TCA cycle pools are a contributing factor to the non-linear phase. The authors have used this method to analyze pyruvate oxidation in AS 30D hepatoma cells. They found that the extrapolated x-intercepts for the two tracers were identical. This indicates that the non-linear phase resulted from equilibration of the tracer with pools prior to entering the TCA cycle, i.e. lactate. Using this technique, it may be possible to estimate the variations in TCA cycle pool sizes in vivo

  7. The Relative Performance of High Resolution Quantitative Precipitation Estimates in the Russian River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bytheway, J. L.; Biswas, S.; Cifelli, R.; Hughes, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Russian River carves a 110 mile path through Mendocino and Sonoma counties in western California, providing water for thousands of residents and acres of agriculture as well as a home for several species of endangered fish. The Russian River basin receives almost all of its precipitation during the October through March wet season, and the systems bringing this precipitation are often impacted by atmospheric river events as well as the complex topography of the region. This study will examine the performance of several high resolution (hourly, products and forecasts over the 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 wet seasons. Comparisons of event total rainfall as well as hourly rainfall will be performed using 1) rain gauges operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Physical Sciences Division (PSD), 2) products from the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) QPE dataset, and 3) quantitative precipitation forecasts from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model at 1, 3, 6, and 12 hour lead times. Further attention will be given to cases or locations representing large disparities between the estimates.

  8. Estimation relative de la vulnérabilité urbaine à Bucarest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Rufat

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available À Bucarest, les cartes murales sont les principaux outils des urbanistes et des gestionnaires du risque. La réalisation d’un SIG et l’intégration de différentes bases de données permettent d’améliorer l’analyse spatiale et de déplacer les préoccupations des gestionnaires des aléas à la vulnérabilité. Nous proposons une solution basée sur l’analyse multivariée pour dépasser les obstacles méthodologiques à l’estimation de la vulnérabilité. Les différents profils de vulnérabilité sont cartographiés au regard des aléas et sources de danger pour réaliser une carte synthétique du risque. Cette spectroscopie de la vulnérabilité est développée dans le cas de Bucarest comme outil de gestion du risque et d’aide à la décision.

  9. Relative motions of the Australian, Pacific and Antarctic plates estimated by the Global Positioning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Kristine M.; Freymueller, Jeff

    1995-01-01

    Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements spanning approximately 3 years have been used to determine velocities for 7 sites on the Australian, Pacific and Antarctic plates. The site velocities agree with both plate model predictions and other space geodetic techniques. We find no evidence for internal deformation of the interior of the Australian plate. Wellington, New Zealand, located in the Australian-Pacific plate boundary zone, moves 20 +/- 5 mm/yr west-southwest relative to the Australian plate. Its velocity lies midway between the predicted velocities of the two plates. Relative Euler vectors for the Australia-Antarctica and Pacific-Antarctica plates agree within one standard deviation with the NUVEL-1A predictions.

  10. Estimation and applicability of attenuation characteristics for source parameters and scaling relations in the Garhwal Kumaun Himalaya region, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Rakesh; Paul, Ajay; Kumar, Arjun; Kumar, Parveen; Sundriyal, Y. P.

    2018-06-01

    Source parameters of the small to moderate earthquakes are significant for understanding the dynamic rupture process, the scaling relations of the earthquakes and for assessment of seismic hazard potential of a region. In this study, the source parameters were determined for 58 small to moderate size earthquakes (3.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 5.0) occurred during 2007-2015 in the Garhwal-Kumaun region. The estimated shear wave quality factor (Qβ(f)) values for each station at different frequencies have been applied to eliminate any bias in the determination of source parameters. The Qβ(f) values have been estimated by using coda wave normalization method in the frequency range 1.5-16 Hz. A frequency-dependent S wave quality factor relation is obtained as Qβ(f) = (152.9 ± 7) f(0.82±0.005) by fitting a power-law frequency dependence model for the estimated values over the whole study region. The spectral (low-frequency spectral level and corner frequency) and source (static stress drop, seismic moment, apparent stress and radiated energy) parameters are obtained assuming ω-2 source model. The displacement spectra are corrected for estimated frequency-dependent attenuation, site effect using spectral decay parameter "Kappa". The frequency resolution limit was resolved by quantifying the bias in corner frequencies, stress drop and radiated energy estimates due to finite-bandwidth effect. The data of the region shows shallow focused earthquakes with low stress drop. The estimation of Zúñiga parameter (ε) suggests the partial stress drop mechanism in the region. The observed low stress drop and apparent stress can be explained by partial stress drop and low effective stress model. Presence of subsurface fluid at seismogenic depth certainly manipulates the dynamics of the region. However, the limited event selection may strongly bias the scaling relation even after taking as much as possible precaution in considering effects of finite bandwidth, attenuation and site corrections

  11. Spectral estimation of soil properties in siberian tundra soils and relations with plant species composition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartholomeus, Harm; Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela; Blok, Daan

    2012-01-01

    yields a good prediction model for K and a moderate model for pH. Using these models, soil properties are determined for a larger number of samples, and soil properties are related to plant species composition. This analysis shows that variation of soil properties is large within vegetation classes......Predicted global warming will be most pronounced in the Arctic and will severely affect permafrost environments. Due to its large spatial extent and large stocks of soil organic carbon, changes to organic matter decomposition rates and associated carbon fluxes in Arctic permafrost soils...

  12. RELATIVE AND ABSOLUTE DENSITY ESTIMATES OF LAND PLANARIANS (PLATYHELMINTHES, TRICLADIDA IN URBAN RAINFOREST PATCHES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FERNANDO CARBAYO

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Land planarians (Platyhelminthes are likely important components of the soil cryptofauna, although relevant aspects of their ecology such as their density remain largely unstudied. We investigated absolute and relative densities of flatworms in three patches of secondary Brazilian Atlantic rainforest in an urban environment. Two methods of sampling were carried out, one consisting of 90 hours of active search in delimited plots covering 6,000 m² over a year, and the other consisting of leaf litter extraction from a 60 m² soil area, totaling 480-600 l leaf litter. We found 288 specimens of 16 species belonging to the genera Geobia, Geoplana, Issoca, Luteostriata, Obama, Paraba, Pasipha, Rhynchodemus, Xerapoa, and the exotic species Bipalium kewense and Dolichoplana striata. Specimens up to 10 mm long were mostly sampled only with the leaf litter extraction method. Absolute densities, calculated from data obtained with leaf litter extraction, ranged between 1.25 and 2.10 individuals m-2. These values are 30 to 161 times higher than relative densities, calculated from data obtained by active search. Since most common sampling method used in land planarian studies on species composition and faunal inventories is active search for a few hours in a locality, our results suggest that small species might be overlooked. It remains to be tested whether similar densities of this cryptofauna are also found in primary forests.

  13. Relative validation of a food frequency questionnaire to estimate food intake in an adult population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinemann, Nina; Grize, Leticia; Ziesemer, Katrin; Kauf, Peter; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Brombach, Christine

    2017-01-01

    Background : Scientifically valid descriptions of dietary intake at population level are crucial for investigating diet effects on health and disease. Food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) are the most common dietary tools used in large epidemiological studies. Objective : To examine the relative validity of a newly developed FFQ to be used as dietary assessment tool in epidemiological studies. Design : Validity was evaluated by comparing the FFQ and a 4-day weighed food record (4-d FR) at nutrient and food group levels, Spearman's correlations, Bland-Altman analysis and Wilcoxon rank sum tests were used. Fifty-six participants completed a paper format FFQ and a 4-d FR within 4 weeks. Results : Corrected correlations between the two instruments ranged from 0.27 (carbohydrates) to 0.55 (protein), and at food group level from 0.09 (soup) to 0.92 (alcohol). Nine out of 25 food groups showed correlations > 0.5, indicating moderate validity. More than half the food groups were overestimated in the FFQ, especially vegetables (82.8%) and fruits (56.3%). Water, tea and coffee were underestimated (-14.0%). Conclusions : The FFQ showed moderate relative validity for protein and the food groups fruits, egg, meat, sausage, nuts, salty snacks and beverages. This study supports the use of the FFQ as an acceptable tool for assessing nutrition as a health determinant in large epidemiological studies.

  14. Recovery Estimation of Dried Foodborne Pathogens Is Directly Related to Rehydration Kinetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Emilie; Zoz, Fiona; Iaconelli, Cyril; Guyot, Stéphane; Alvarez-Martin, Pablo; Beney, Laurent; Perrier-Cornet, Jean-Marie; Gervais, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Drying is a common process which is used to preserve food products and technological microorganisms, but which is deleterious for the cells. The aim of this study is to differentiate the effects of drying alone from the effects of the successive and necessary rehydration. Rehydration of dried bacteria is a critical step already studied in starter culture but not for different kinetics and not for pathogens. In the present study, the influence of rehydration kinetics was investigated for three foodborne pathogens involved in neonatal diseases caused by the consumption of rehydrated milk powder: Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Typhimurium, Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Senftenberg and Cronobacter sakazakii. Bacteria were dried in controlled relative humidity atmospheres and then rehydrated using different methods. Our results showed that the survival of the three pathogens was strongly related to rehydration kinetics. Consequently, rehydration is an important step to consider during food safety assessment or during studies of dried foodborne pathogens. Also, it has to be considered with more attention in consumers’ homes during the preparation of food, like powdered infant formula, to avoid pathogens recovery. PMID:27494169

  15. Possibility of estimation of bare coupling of grand unification via theory of dispersion relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perel'manl, C.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text:All processes of point particle elastic scatterings on the fixed point-like force center of any nature of coupling can be kinematically subdivided onto two classes: (proper) processes, at which complete energy throughout is not lesser kinetical one: E > If, and (improper) processes, at some interval of which potential energy become bigger complete energy (tunneling, backward scattering, etc.). The projector of proper processes, expressed via the Heaviside unit operator, P = θ(E - f), extracts from the general response functions (scattering amplitudes F) parts that describe all these processes: f (E, p, ...) = 9(E - E)F(E, p, ...). Its Fourier transformation leads to the dispersion relations in (t,r)-representation, which can be infinitely iterated and is represented in form of the Neumann series for the integral Fredholm equation. At this calculation the unique numerical constant α 0 = 2(2π) -5/2 ∼1/50 for (3+1) metrics is appeared, which does not depend from nature of coupling and therefore can be considered as the constant of decomposition of complete amplitude over number of interactions. Precisely this value, independent from dynamics, can be considered as the universal bare coupling. Via the Gell-Mann - Low relations it results in the GUT energy A-f = 10 18 GeV with consistent magnitudes of all running couplings and reasonable values of electron and nucleon masses as dynamical fields objects. Moreover it allows the consideration of some problems of black holes also

  16. Estimating material parameters of a structurally based constitutive relation for skin mechanics

    KAUST Repository

    Jor, Jessica W. Y.

    2010-11-25

    This paper presents a structurally based modeling framework to characterize the structure-function relation in skin tissues, based upon biaxial tensile experiments performed in vitro on porcine skin. Equi-axial deformations were imposed by stretching circular skin specimens uniformly along twelve directions, and the resultant loads at the membrane attachment points were measured. Displacement fields at each deformation step were tracked using an image 2D cross-correlation technique. A modeling framework was developed to simulate the experiments, whereby measured forces were applied to finite element models that were created to represent the geometry and structure of the tissue samples. Parameters of a structurally based constitutive relation were then identified using nonlinear optimization. Results showed that the ground matrix stiffness ranged from 5 to 32 kPa, fiber orientation mean from 2 to 13. from the torso midline, fiber undulation mean from 1.04 to 1.34 and collagen fiber stiffness from 48 to 366 MPa. It was concluded that the objective function was highly sensitive to the mean orientation and that a priori information about fiber orientation mean was important for the reliable identification of constitutive parameters. © Springer-Verlag 2010.

  17. Incubation period for campylobacteriosis and its importance in the estimation of incidence related to travel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horn, B J; Lake, R J

    2013-10-03

    Differentiation between travel-related and domestic cases of infectious disease is important in managing risk. Incubation periods of cases from several outbreaks of campylobacteriosis in Canada, Europe, and the United States with defined exposure time of less than 24 hours were collated to provide information on the incubation period distribution. This distribution was consistent across the varied outbreaks considered, with 84% (702/832) of cases having an incubation period of four days or less and 1% having an incubation period of eight days or more. The incubation period distribution was incorporated into a model for the number of travel-related cases presenting with symptom onset at given dates after return to their country of residence. Using New Zealand notification data between 2006 and 2010 for cases who had undertaken foreign travel within 10 days prior to symptom onset, we found that 29.6% (67/227 cases; 95% confidence interval (CI): 28.3–30.8%) of these cases were likely to have been domestic cases. When cases with symptom onset prior to arrival were included, the probable domestic cases represented 11.8% (67/571; 95% CI: 11.2–12.3%). Consideration of incubation time distributions and consistent collection of travel start/end dates with symptom onset dates would assist attribution of cases to foreign travel.

  18. Recovery Estimation of Dried Foodborne Pathogens Is Directly Related to Rehydration Kinetics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilie Lang

    Full Text Available Drying is a common process which is used to preserve food products and technological microorganisms, but which is deleterious for the cells. The aim of this study is to differentiate the effects of drying alone from the effects of the successive and necessary rehydration. Rehydration of dried bacteria is a critical step already studied in starter culture but not for different kinetics and not for pathogens. In the present study, the influence of rehydration kinetics was investigated for three foodborne pathogens involved in neonatal diseases caused by the consumption of rehydrated milk powder: Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Typhimurium, Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Senftenberg and Cronobacter sakazakii. Bacteria were dried in controlled relative humidity atmospheres and then rehydrated using different methods. Our results showed that the survival of the three pathogens was strongly related to rehydration kinetics. Consequently, rehydration is an important step to consider during food safety assessment or during studies of dried foodborne pathogens. Also, it has to be considered with more attention in consumers' homes during the preparation of food, like powdered infant formula, to avoid pathogens recovery.

  19. Estimation of regional building-related C&D debris generation and composition: case study for Florida, US.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochran, Kimberly; Townsend, Timothy; Reinhart, Debra; Heck, Howell

    2007-01-01

    Methodology for the accounting, generation, and composition of building-related construction and demolition (C&D) at a regional level was explored. Six specific categories of debris were examined: residential construction, nonresidential construction, residential demolition, nonresidential demolition, residential renovation, and nonresidential renovation. Debris produced from each activity was calculated as the product of the total area of activity and waste generated per unit area of activity. Similarly, composition was estimated as the product of the total area of activity and the amount of each waste component generated per unit area. The area of activity was calculated using statistical data, and individual site studies were used to assess the average amount of waste generated per unit area. The application of the methodology was illustrated using Florida, US approximately 3,750,000 metric tons of building-related C&D debris were estimated as generated in Florida in 2000. Of that amount, concrete represented 56%, wood 13%, drywall 11%, miscellaneous debris 8%, asphalt roofing materials 7%, metal 3%, cardboard 1%, and plastic 1%. This model differs from others because it accommodates regional construction styles and available data. The resulting generation amount per capita is less than the US estimate - attributable to the high construction, low demolition activity seen in Florida.

  20. Estimates of relative areas for the disposal in bedded salt of LWR wastes from alternative fuel cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lincoln, R.C.; Larson, D.W.; Sisson, C.E.

    1978-01-01

    The relative mine-level areas (land use requirements) which would be required for the disposal of light-water reactor (LWR) radioactive wastes in a hypothetical bedded-salt formation have been estimated. Five waste types from alternative fuel cycles have been considered. The relative thermal response of each of five different site conditions to each waste type has been determined. The fuel cycles considered are the once-through (no recycle), the uranium-only recycle, and the uranium and plutonium recycle. The waste types which were considered include (1) unreprocessed spent reactor fuel, (2) solidified waste derived from reprocessing uranium oxide fuel, (3) plutonium recovered from reprocessing spent reactor fuel and doped with 1.5% of the accompanying waste from reprocessing uranium oxide fuel, (4) waste derived from reprocessing mixed uranium/plutonium oxide fuel in the third recycle, and (5) unreprocessed spent fuel after three recycles of mixed uranium/plutonium oxide fuels. The relative waste-disposal areas were determined from a calculated value of maximum thermal energy (MTE) content of the geologic formations. Results are presented for each geologic site condition in terms of area ratios. Disposal area requirements for each waste type are expressed as ratios relative to the smallest area requirement (for waste type No. 2 above). For the reference geologic site condition, the estimated mine-level disposal area ratios are 4.9 for waste type No. 1, 4.3 for No. 3, 2.6 for No. 4, and 11 for No. 5

  1. Status of Los Alamos efforts related to Hiroshima and Nagasaki dose estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whalen, P.P.

    1981-09-01

    The Los Alamos efforts related to resolution of the Hiroshima, Nagasaki doses are described as follows: (1) Using recently located replicas of the Hiroshima bomb, measurements will be made which will define the upper limit of the Hiroshima yield. (2) Two-dimensional calculations of the neutron and gamma-ray outputs of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki weapons are in progress. Neutron and gamma-ray leakage spectra measurements will be made. Similar measurements on the Mark 9 weapon and on the Ichiban assembly are proposed. These measurements will provide a check for present day cross sections and calculations. (3) Calculations of several air transport experiments are in progress. A comparison of calculated results with experimental results is given. (4) The neutron and gamma-ray output spectra of several devices tested in the atmosphere at the Nevada Test Site are being calculated. The results of these calculations will allow models of the debris cloud contribution to the total dose to be tested

  2. Estimate of oxygen consumption and intracellular zinc concentration of human spermatozoa in relation to motility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henkel, Ralf R; Defosse, Kerstin; Koyro, Hans-Wilhelm; Weissmann, Norbert; Schill, Wolf-Bernhard

    2003-03-01

    To investigate the human sperm oxygen/energy consumption and zinc content in relation to motility. In washed spermatozoa from 67 ejaculates, the oxygen consumption was determined. Following calculation of the total oxygen consumed by the Ideal Gas Law, the energy consumption of spermatozoa was calculated. In addition, the zinc content of the sperm was determined using an atomic absorption spectrometer. The resulting data were correlated to the vitality and motility. The oxygen consumption averaged 0.24 micromol/10(6) sperm x 24h, 0.28 micromol/10(6) live sperm x 24h and 0.85 micromol/10(6) live motile sperm x 24h. Further calculations revealed that sperm motility was the most energy consuming process (164.31 mJ/10(6) motile spermatozoa x 24h), while the oxygen consumption of the total spermatozoa was 46.06 mJ/10(6) spermatozoa x 24h. The correlation of the oxygen/energy consumption and zinc content with motility showed significant negative correlations (r= -0.759; P<0.0001 and r=-0.441; P<0.0001, respectively). However, when correlating sperm energy consumption with the zinc content, a significant positive relation (r=0.323; P=0.01) was observed. Poorly motile sperm are actually wasting the available energy. Moreover, our data clearly support the "Geometric Clutch Model" of the axoneme function and demonstrate the importance of the outer dense fibers for the generation of sperm motility, especially progressive motility.

  3. Relative Validity and Reproducibility of a Food-Frequency Questionnaire for Estimating Food Intakes among Flemish Preschoolers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inge Huybrechts

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this study were to assess the relative validity and reproducibility of a semi-quantitative food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ applied in a large region-wide survey among 2.5-6.5 year-old children for estimating food group intakes. Parents/guardians were used as a proxy. Estimated diet records (3d were used as reference method and reproducibility was measured by repeated FFQ administrations five weeks apart. In total 650 children were included in the validity analyses and 124 in the reproducibility analyses. Comparing median FFQ1 to FFQ2 intakes, almost all evaluated food groups showed median differences within a range of ± 15%. However, for median vegetables, fruit and cheese intake, FFQ1 was > 20% higher than FFQ2. For most foods a moderate correlation (0.5-0.7 was obtained between FFQ1 and FFQ2. For cheese, sugared drinks and fruit juice intakes correlations were even > 0.7. For median differences between the 3d EDR and the FFQ, six food groups (potatoes & grains; vegetables Fruit; cheese; meat, game, poultry and fish; and sugared drinks gave a difference > 20%. The largest corrected correlations (>0.6 were found for the intake of potatoes and grains, fruit, milk products, cheese, sugared drinks, and fruit juice, while the lowest correlations (<0.4 for bread and meat products. The proportion of subjects classified within one quartile (in the same/adjacent category by FFQ and EDR ranged from 67% (for meat products to 88% (for fruit juice. Extreme misclassification into the opposite quartiles was for all food groups < 10%. The results indicate that our newly developed FFQ gives reproducible estimates of food group intake. Overall, moderate levels of relative validity were observed for estimates of food group intake.

  4. The cost of HIV/AIDS-related morbidity and mortality to households: Preliminary estimates for Soweto

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V Naidu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This article has two main aims: to provide data on the cost of HIV/AIDS to urban South African households and to contribute to the development of a methodology that could be used in later studies. Data on the costs of HIV/AIDS-related morbidity and mortality were collected from a purposively selected sample of households in Soweto on four occasions between September 2002 and August 2003. The sample comprised 61 affected households, which had at least one member with a CD4 count of 200 or less at the start of the study, and 52 non-affected households. Three types of costs were examined – financial, economic and the present value of lost future earnings. The data suggest that the financial costs of morbidity and mortality were three and two times greater, respectively, for affected households than for those non-affected households that reported disease and/or death. Mortality costs far exceeded morbidity costs. The present value of lost future earnings, where the deceased had previously been an income earner, proved to be the major cost incurred by an affected household.

  5. Heat-related deaths in hot cities: estimates of human tolerance to high temperature thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlan, Sharon L; Chowell, Gerardo; Yang, Shuo; Petitti, Diana B; Morales Butler, Emmanuel J; Ruddell, Benjamin L; Ruddell, Darren M

    2014-03-20

    In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (ATmax) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (ATmax = 90-97 °F; 32.2-36.1 °C) were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (ATmax = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C). Heat threshold was defined as ATmax at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (ATmax = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C) with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (ATmax = 109 °F; 42.8 °C) and for all-cause mortality in females (ATmax = 107 °F; 41.7 °C) and males Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.

  6. Russia-specific relative risks and their effects on the estimated alcohol-attributable burden of disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shield, Kevin D; Rehm, Jürgen

    2015-05-10

    Alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for the burden of disease globally. This burden is estimated using Relative Risk (RR) functions for alcohol from meta-analyses that use data from all countries; however, for Russia and surrounding countries, country-specific risk data may need to be used. The objective of this paper is to compare the estimated burden of alcohol consumption calculated using Russia-specific alcohol RRs with the estimated burden of alcohol consumption calculated using alcohol RRs from meta-analyses. Data for 2012 on drinking indicators were calculated based on the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Data for 2012 on mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived with Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost by cause were obtained by country from the World Health Organization. Alcohol Population-Attributable Fractions (PAFs) were calculated based on a risk modelling methodology from Russia. These PAFs were compared to PAFs calculated using methods applied for all other countries. The 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs) for the alcohol PAFs were calculated using a Monte Carlo-like method. Using Russia-specific alcohol RR functions, in Russia in 2012 alcohol caused an estimated 231,900 deaths (95% UI: 185,600 to 278,200) (70,800 deaths among women and 161,100 deaths among men) and 13,295,000 DALYs lost (95% UI: 11,242,000 to 15,348,000) (3,670,000 DALYs lost among women and 9,625,000 DALYs lost among men) among people 0 to 64 years of age. This compares to an estimated 165,600 deaths (95% UI: 97,200 to 228,100) (29,700 deaths among women and 135,900 deaths among men) and 10,623,000 DALYs lost (95% UI: 7,265,000 to 13,754,000) (1,783,000 DALYs lost among women and 8,840,000 DALYs lost among men) among people 0 to 64 years of age caused by alcohol when non-Russia-specific alcohol RRs were used. Results indicate that if the Russia-specific RRs are used when estimating the health burden attributable to alcohol consumption in

  7. Estimating the Relative Sociolinguistic Salience of Segmental Variables in a Dialect Boundary Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llamas, Carmen; Watt, Dominic; MacFarlane, Andrew E.

    2016-01-01

    One way of evaluating the salience of a linguistic feature is by assessing the extent to which listeners associate the feature with a social category such as a particular socioeconomic class, gender, or nationality. Such ‘top–down’ associations will inevitably differ somewhat from listener to listener, as a linguistic feature – the pronunciation of a vowel or consonant, for instance – can evoke multiple social category associations, depending upon the dialect in which the feature is embedded and the context in which it is heard. In a given speech community it is reasonable to expect, as a consequence of the salience of the linguistic form in question, a certain level of intersubjective agreement on social category associations. Two metrics we can use to quantify the salience of a linguistic feature are (a) the speed with which the association is made, and (b) the degree to which members of a speech community appear to share the association. Through the use of a new technique, designed as an adaptation of the Implicit Association Test, this paper examines levels of agreement among 40 informants from the Scottish/English border region with respect to the associations they make between four key phonetic variables and the social categories of ‘Scotland’ and ‘England.’ Our findings reveal that the participants exhibit differential agreement patterns across the set of phonetic variables, and that listeners’ responses vary in line with whether participants are members of the Scottish or the English listener groups. These results demonstrate the importance of community-level agreement with respect to the associations that listeners make between social categories and linguistic forms, and as a means of ranking the forms’ relative salience. PMID:27574511

  8. Heat-Related Deaths in Hot Cities: Estimates of Human Tolerance to High Temperature Thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharon L. Harlan

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (ATmax and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages <65 and ≥65 during the months May–October for years 2000–2008. The most robust relationship was between ATmax on day of death and mortality from direct exposure to high environmental heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (ATmax = 90–97 °F; 32.2‒36.1 °C were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (ATmax = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C. Heat threshold was defined as ATmax at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (ATmax = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (ATmax = 109 °F; 42.8 °C and for all-cause mortality in females (ATmax = 107 °F; 41.7 °C and males <65 years (ATmax = 102 °F; 38.9 °C. Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.

  9. Estimation of the stress related to conservative scoliosis therapy: an analysis based on BSSQ questionnaires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szulc Andrzej

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Adolescent girls treated with a brace for scoliosis are submitted to prolonged stress related to both the disease and the therapy. Currently proposed quality of life questionnaires are focused on the outcome of therapy. Bad Sobernheim Stress Questionnaire (BSSQ enables monitoring of patients being under treatment with a brace or exercises. The aim of the study was to assess the stress level in conservatively managed scoliotic girls using BSSQ. Materials and methods 111 girls, aged 14,2 ± 2,2 years, mean Cobb angle of the primary curve 42,8° ± 17,0° and mean Bunnell angle of 11,4° ± 4,5° were examined with two versions of BSSQ (Deformity and Brace. The analysis considered the type of treatment, curve location, correlation of the total score with age, Cobb angle and Bunnell rotation angle. Results The BSSQ Deformity revealed the median of 17 points in patients managed with exercises (from 4 to 24 points, 18 in patients managed with a brace (from 8 to 24 points and 12 in patients before surgery (from 3 to 21 points. Braced patients who completed both questionnaires (n = 50 revealed significantly higher score with BSSQ Deformity (median = 18 comparing to BSSQ Brace (median = 9. There was a correlation between the total score of BSSQ Deformity and the Cobb angle (r = -0,34, Bunnell primary curve rotation (r = -0,34 and Bunnell sum of rotation (r = -0,33 but not with the age of patients. Conclusion Scoliotic adolescents managed with exercises and brace suffered little stress from the deformity. The brace increased the level of stress over the stress induced by the deformity. The stress level correlated with clinical deformity (Bunnell angle, radiological deformity (Cobb angle and the type of treatment (exercises, bracing, surgery. Bad Sobernheim Stress Questionnaires are simple and helpful in the management of girls treated conservatively for idiopathic scoliosis.

  10. Temperature-related mortality estimates after accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollution in an urban area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanišić Stojić, Svetlana; Stanišić, Nemanja; Stojić, Andreja

    2016-07-11

    To propose a new method for including the cumulative mid-term effects of air pollution in the traditional Poisson regression model and compare the temperature-related mortality risk estimates, before and after including air pollution data. The analysis comprised a total of 56,920 residents aged 65 years or older who died from circulatory and respiratory diseases in Belgrade, Serbia, and daily mean PM10, NO2, SO2 and soot concentrations obtained for the period 2009-2014. After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %. Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures. These results suggest that, in polluted areas of developing countries, most of the mortality risk, previously attributed to cold temperatures, can be explained by the mid-term effects of air pollution. The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

  11. Relative Wave Energy based Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System model for the Estimation of Depth of Anaesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benzy, V K; Jasmin, E A; Koshy, Rachel Cherian; Amal, Frank; Indiradevi, K P

    2018-01-01

    The advancement in medical research and intelligent modeling techniques has lead to the developments in anaesthesia management. The present study is targeted to estimate the depth of anaesthesia using cognitive signal processing and intelligent modeling techniques. The neurophysiological signal that reflects cognitive state of anaesthetic drugs is the electroencephalogram signal. The information available on electroencephalogram signals during anaesthesia are drawn by extracting relative wave energy features from the anaesthetic electroencephalogram signals. Discrete wavelet transform is used to decomposes the electroencephalogram signals into four levels and then relative wave energy is computed from approximate and detail coefficients of sub-band signals. Relative wave energy is extracted to find out the degree of importance of different electroencephalogram frequency bands associated with different anaesthetic phases awake, induction, maintenance and recovery. The Kruskal-Wallis statistical test is applied on the relative wave energy features to check the discriminating capability of relative wave energy features as awake, light anaesthesia, moderate anaesthesia and deep anaesthesia. A novel depth of anaesthesia index is generated by implementing a Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system based fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm which uses relative wave energy features as inputs. Finally, the generated depth of anaesthesia index is compared with a commercially available depth of anaesthesia monitor Bispectral index.

  12. Associations between Salivary Testosterone Levels, Androgen‐Related Genetic Polymorphisms, and Self‐Estimated Ejaculation Latency Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Jern, PhD

    2014-08-01

    Conclusions: We were unable to find support for the hypothesis suggesting an association between T levels and ELT, possibly because of the low number of phenotypically extreme cases (the sample used in the present study was population based. Our results concerning genetic associations should be interpreted with caution until replication studies have been conducted. Jern P, Westberg L, Ankarberg‐Lindgren C, Johansson A, Gunst A, Sandnabba NK, and Santtila P. Associations between salivary testosterone levels, androgen‐related genetic polymorphisms, and self‐estimated ejaculation latency time. Sex Med 2014;2:107–114.

  13. Estimated cases of blindness and visual impairment from neovascular age-related macular degeneration avoided in Australia by ranibizumab treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Paul; Bressler, Neil; Doan, Quan V; Dolan, Chantal; Ferreira, Alberto; Osborne, Aaron; Rochtchina, Elena; Danese, Mark; Colman, Shoshana; Wong, Tien Y

    2014-01-01

    Intravitreal injections of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents, such as ranibizumab, have significantly improved the management of neovascular age-related macular degeneration. This study used patient-level simulation modelling to estimate the number of individuals in Australia who would have been likely to avoid legal blindness or visual impairment due to neovascular age-related macular degeneration over a 2-year period as a result of intravitreal ranibizumab injections. The modelling approach used existing data for the incidence of neovascular age-related macular degeneration in Australia and outcomes from ranibizumab trials. Blindness and visual impairment were defined as visual acuity in the better-seeing eye of worse than 6/60 or 6/12, respectively. In 2010, 14,634 individuals in Australia were estimated to develop neovascular age-related macular degeneration who would be eligible for ranibizumab therapy. Without treatment, 2246 individuals would become legally blind over 2 years. Monthly 0.5 mg intravitreal ranibizumab would reduce incident blindness by 72% (95% simulation interval, 70-74%). Ranibizumab given as needed would reduce incident blindness by 68% (64-71%). Without treatment, 4846 individuals would become visually impaired over 2 years; this proportion would be reduced by 37% (34-39%) with monthly intravitreal ranibizumab, and by 28% (23-33%) with ranibizumab given as needed. These data suggest that intravitreal injections of ranibizumab, given either monthly or as needed, can substantially lower the number of cases of blindness and visual impairment over 2 years after the diagnosis of neovascular age-related macular degeneration.

  14. Criticality accident in uranium fuel processing plant. The estimation of the total number of fissions with related reactor physics parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishina, Kojiro; Oyamatsu, Kazuhiro; Kondo, Shunsuke; Sekimoto, Hiroshi; Ishitani, Kazuki; Yamane, Yoshihiro; Miyoshi, Yoshinori

    2000-01-01

    This accident occurred when workers were pouring a uranium solution into a precipitation tank with handy operation against the established procedure and both the cylindrical diameter and the total mass exceeded the limited values. As a result, nuclear fission chain reactor in the solution reached not only a 'criticality' state continuing it independently but also an instantly forming criticality state exceed the criticality and increasing further nuclear fission number. The place occurring the accident at this time was not reactor but a place having not to form 'criticality' called by a processing process of uranium fuel. In such place, as because of relating to mechanism of chain reaction, it is required naturally for knowledge on the reactor physics, it is also necessary to understand chemical reaction in chemical process, and functions of tanks, valves and pumps mounted at the processes. For this purpose, some information on uranium concentration ratio, atomic density of nuclides largely affecting to chain reaction such as uranium, hydrogen, and so forth in the solution, shape, inner structure and size of container for the solution, and its temperature and total volume, were necessary for determining criticality volume of the accident uranium solution by using nuclear physics procedures. Here were described on estimation of energy emission in the JCO accident, estimation from analytical results on neutron and solution, calculation of various nuclear physics property estimation on the JCO precipitation tank at JAERI. (G.K.)

  15. A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

    2014-11-01

    We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in

  16. Relative efficiency of unequal versus equal cluster sizes in cluster randomized trials using generalized estimating equation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jingxia; Colditz, Graham A

    2018-05-01

    There is growing interest in conducting cluster randomized trials (CRTs). For simplicity in sample size calculation, the cluster sizes are assumed to be identical across all clusters. However, equal cluster sizes are not guaranteed in practice. Therefore, the relative efficiency (RE) of unequal versus equal cluster sizes has been investigated when testing the treatment effect. One of the most important approaches to analyze a set of correlated data is the generalized estimating equation (GEE) proposed by Liang and Zeger, in which the "working correlation structure" is introduced and the association pattern depends on a vector of association parameters denoted by ρ. In this paper, we utilize GEE models to test the treatment effect in a two-group comparison for continuous, binary, or count data in CRTs. The variances of the estimator of the treatment effect are derived for the different types of outcome. RE is defined as the ratio of variance of the estimator of the treatment effect for equal to unequal cluster sizes. We discuss a commonly used structure in CRTs-exchangeable, and derive the simpler formula of RE with continuous, binary, and count outcomes. Finally, REs are investigated for several scenarios of cluster size distributions through simulation studies. We propose an adjusted sample size due to efficiency loss. Additionally, we also propose an optimal sample size estimation based on the GEE models under a fixed budget for known and unknown association parameter (ρ) in the working correlation structure within the cluster. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  17. Associations of hypoosmotic swelling test, relative sperm volume shift, aquaporin7 mRNA abundance and bull fertility estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasimanickam, R K; Kasimanickam, V R; Arangasamy, A; Kastelic, J P

    2017-02-01

    Mammalian sperm are exposed to a natural hypoosmotic environment during male-to-female reproductive tract transition; although this activates sperm motility in vivo, excessive swelling can harm sperm structure and function. Aquaporins (AQPs) is a family of membrane-channel proteins implicated in sperm osmoregulation. The objective was to determine associations among relative sperm volume shift, hypoosmotic swelling test (HOST), sperm aquaporin (AQP) 7 mRNA abundances, and sire conception rate (SCR; fertility estimate) in Holstein bulls at a commercial artificial insemination center. Three or four sires for each full point SCR score from -4 to +4 were included. Each SCR estimate for study bulls (N = 30) was based on > 500 services (mean ± SEM) of 725 ± 13 services/sire). Sperm from a single collection day (two ejaculates) from these commercial Holstein bulls were used. Relative mRNA expression of AQP7 in sperm was determined by polymerase chain reaction. Mean relative sperm volume shift and percentage of sperm reacted in a HOST (% HOST) were determined (400 sperm per bull) after incubating in isoosmotic (300 mOsm/kg) and hypoosmotic (100 mOsm/kg) solutions for 30 min. There was no correlation between %HOST and SCR (r = 0.28 P > 0.1). However, there was a positive correlation between relative sperm volume shift and SCR (r = 0.65, P 2) fertility sire groups. In conclusion, bulls with higher SCR had significantly greater AQP7 mRNA abundance in frozen-thawed sperm. This plausibly contributed to greater regulation of sperm volume shift, which apparently conferred protection from detrimental swelling and impaired functions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Temperature Observation Time and Type Influence Estimates of Heat-Related Mortality in Seven U.S. Cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Robert E; Hondula, David M; Patel, Anjali P

    2016-06-01

    Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of mortality in the United States, but little guidance is available regarding how temperature variable selection impacts heat-mortality relationships. We examined how the strength of the relationship between daily heat-related mortality and temperature varies as a function of temperature observation time, lag, and calculation method. Long time series of daily mortality counts and hourly temperature for seven U.S. cities with different climates were examined using a generalized additive model. The temperature effect was modeled separately for each hour of the day (with up to 3-day lags) along with different methods of calculating daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperature. We estimated the temperature effect on mortality for each variable by comparing the 99th versus 85th temperature percentiles, as determined from the annual time series. In three northern cities (Boston, MA; Philadelphia, PA; and Seattle, WA) that appeared to have the greatest sensitivity to heat, hourly estimates were consistent with a diurnal pattern in the heat-mortality response, with strongest associations for afternoon or maximum temperature at lag 0 (day of death) or afternoon and evening of lag 1 (day before death). In warmer, southern cities, stronger associations were found with morning temperatures, but overall the relationships were weaker. The strongest temperature-mortality relationships were associated with maximum temperature, although mean temperature results were comparable. There were systematic and substantial differences in the association between temperature and mortality based on the time and type of temperature observation. Because the strongest hourly temperature-mortality relationships were not always found at times typically associated with daily maximum temperatures, temperature variables should be selected independently for each study location. In general, heat-mortality was more closely coupled to afternoon and maximum

  19. Estimation of the Relative Contribution of Postprandial Glucose Exposure to Average Total Glucose Exposure in Subjects with Type 2 Diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Ahrén

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We hypothesized that the relative contribution of fasting plasma glucose (FPG versus postprandial plasma glucose (PPG to glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c could be calculated using an algorithm developed by the A1c-Derived Average Glucose (ADAG study group to make HbA1c values more clinically relevant to patients. The algorithm estimates average glucose (eAG exposure, which can be used to calculate apparent PPG (aPPG by subtracting FPG. The hypothesis was tested in a large dataset (comprising 17 studies from the vildagliptin clinical trial programme. We found that 24 weeks of treatment with vildagliptin monotherapy (n=2523 reduced the relative contribution of aPPG to eAG from 8.12% to 2.95% (by 64%, p<0.001. In contrast, when vildagliptin was added to metformin (n=2752, the relative contribution of aPPG to eAG insignificantly increased from 1.59% to 2.56%. In conclusion, glucose peaks, which are often prominent in patients with type 2 diabetes, provide a small contribution to the total glucose exposure assessed by HbA1c, and the ADAG algorithm is not robust enough to assess this small relative contribution in patients receiving combination therapy.

  20. Estimation of the Cloud condensation nuclei concentration(CCN) and aerosol optical depth(AOD) relation in the Arctic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, C. H.; Yoon, Y. J.; Ahn, S. H.; Kang, H. J.; Gim, Y. T.; Lee, B. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Information of the spatial and temporal variations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations is important in estimating aerosol indirect effects. Generally, CCN aerosol is difficult to estimate using remote sensing methods. Although there are many CCN measurements data, extensive measurements of CCN are not feasible because of the complex nature of the operation and high cost, especially in the Arctic region. Thus, there have been many attempts to estimate CCN concentrations from more easily obtainable parameters such as aerosol optical depth (AOD) because AOD has the advantage of being readily observed by remote sensing from space by several sensors. For example, some form of correlation was derived between AOD and the number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) through the comparison results from AERONET network and CCN measurements (Andreae 2009). In this study, a parameterization of CCN concentration as a function of AOD at 500 nm is given in the Arctic region. CCN data was collected during the period 2007-2013 at the Zeppelin observatory (78.91° N, 11.89° E, 474 masl). The AERONET network and MODIS AOD data are compared with ground measured CCN measurement and the relations between AOD and CCN are parameterized. The seasonal characteristics as well as long term trends are also considered. Through the measurement, CCN concentration remains high during spring because of aerosol transportation from the mid-latitudes, known as Arctic Haze. Lowest CCN number densities were observed during Arctic autumn and early winter when aerosol long-range transport into the Arctic is not effective and new particle formation ceases. The results show that the relation between AOD and CCN shows a different parameter depending on the seasonal aerosol and CCN characteristics. This seasonal different CCN-AOD relation can be interpreted as many physico-chemical aerosol properties including aerosol size distribution, composition. ReferenceAndreae, M. O. (2009

  1. Estimating cancer risk in relation to tritium exposure from routine operation of a nuclear-generating station in Pickering, Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanigaratne, S; Holowaty, E; Jiang, H; Norwood, T A; Pietrusiak, M A; Brown, P

    2013-09-01

    Evidence suggests that current levels of tritium emissions from CANDU reactors in Canada are not related to adverse health effects. However, these studies lack tritium-specific dose data and have small numbers of cases. The purpose of our study was to determine whether tritium emitted from a nuclear-generating station during routine operation is associated with risk of cancer in Pickering, Ontario. A retrospective cohort was formed through linkage of Pickering and north Oshawa residents (1985) to incident cancer cases (1985-2005). We examined all sites combined, leukemia, lung, thyroid and childhood cancers (6-19 years) for males and females as well as female breast cancer. Tritium estimates were based on an atmospheric dispersion model, incorporating characteristics of annual tritium emissions and meteorology. Tritium concentration estimates were assigned to each cohort member based on exact location of residence. Person-years analysis was used to determine whether observed cancer cases were higher than expected. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to determine whether tritium was associated with radiation-sensitive cancers in Pickering. Person-years analysis showed female childhood cancer cases to be significantly higher than expected (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] = 1.99, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-3.38). The issue of multiple comparisons is the most likely explanation for this finding. Cox models revealed that female lung cancer was significantly higher in Pickering versus north Oshawa (HR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.23-4.46) and that tritium was not associated with increased risk. The improved methodology used in this study adds to our understanding of cancer risks associated with low-dose tritium exposure. Tritium estimates were not associated with increased risk of radiationsensitive cancers in Pickering.

  2. Towards a Model Climatology of Relative Humidity in the Upper Troposphere for Estimation of Contrail and Contrail-Induced Cirrus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selkirk, Henry B.; Manyin, M.; Ott, L.; Oman, L.; Benson, C.; Pawson, S.; Douglass, A. R.; Stolarski, R. S.

    2011-01-01

    The formation of contrails and contrail cirrus is very sensitive to the relative humidity of the upper troposphere. To reduce uncertainty in an estimate of the radiative impact of aviation-induced cirrus, a model must therefore be able to reproduce the observed background moisture fields with reasonable and quantifiable fidelity. Here we present an upper tropospheric moisture climatology from a 26-year ensemble of simulations using the GEOS CCM. We compare this free-running model's moisture fields to those obtained from the MLS and AIRS satellite instruments, our most comprehensive observational databases for upper tropospheric water vapor. Published comparisons have shown a substantial wet bias in GEOS-5 assimilated fields with respect to MLS water vapor and ice water content. This tendency is clear as well in the GEOS CCM simulations. The GEOS-5 moist physics in the GEOS CCM uses a saturation adjustment that prevents supersaturation, which is unrealistic when compared to in situ moisture observations from MOZAIC aircraft and balloon sondes as we will show. Further, the large-scale satellite datasets also consistently underestimate super-saturation when compared to the in-situ observations. We place these results in the context of estimates of contrail and contrail cirrus frequency.

  3. Bird mortality related to collisions with ski–lift cables: do we estimate just the tip of the iceberg?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bech, N.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Collisions with ski–lift cables are an important cause of death for grouse species living close to alpine ski resorts. As several biases may reduce the detection probability of bird carcasses, the mortality rates related to these collisions are generally underestimated. The possibility that injured birds may continue flying for some distance after striking cables represents a major source of error, known as crippling bias. Estimating the crippling losses resulting from birds dying far from the ski–lift corridors is difficult and it is usually assessed by systematic searches of carcasses on both sides of the ski–lifts. Using molecular tracking, we were able to demonstrate that a rock ptarmigan hen flew up to 600 m after striking a ski–lift cable, a distance preventing its detection by traditional carcasses surveys. Given the difficulty in conducting systematic searches over large areas surrounding the ski–lifts, only an experiment using radio–tagged birds would allow us to estimate the real mortality rate associated with cable collision.

  4. Parameter Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Heitzig, Martina; Cameron, Ian

    2011-01-01

    of optimisation techniques coupled with dynamic solution of the underlying model. Linear and nonlinear approaches to parameter estimation are investigated. There is also the application of maximum likelihood principles in the estimation of parameters, as well as the use of orthogonal collocation to generate a set......In this chapter the importance of parameter estimation in model development is illustrated through various applications related to reaction systems. In particular, rate constants in a reaction system are obtained through parameter estimation methods. These approaches often require the application...... of algebraic equations as the basis for parameter estimation.These approaches are illustrated using estimations of kinetic constants from reaction system models....

  5. An estimation of COPD cases and respiratory mortality related to Ground-Level Ozone in the metropolitan Ahvaz during 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahar Geravandi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background & Aims of the Study :  Ground-Level Ozone (GLO is the component of one of greatest concern that threatened human health in both developing as well as developed countries. The GLO mainly enters the body through the respiration and can cause decrements in pulmonary complications, eye burning, shortness of breath, coughing, failure of immune defense, decreases forced vital capacity, reduce lung function of the lungs and increase rate of mortality. Ahwaz with high emission air pollutants because of numerous industries is one of the metropolitan Iranian polluted. The aim of this study is evaluate to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD and respiratory mortality related to GLO in the air of metropolitan Ahvaz during 2011. Materials & Methods: We used the generalized additive Air Q model for estimation of COPD and respiratory mortality attributed to GLO pollutant. Data of GLO were collected in four monitoring stations Ahvaz Department of Environment. Raw data processing by Excel software and at final step they were converted as input file to the Air Q model for estimate number of COPD Cases and respiratory mortality. Results: According to result this study, The Naderi and Havashenasi had the highest and the lowest GLO concentrations. The results of this study showed that cumulative cases of COPD and respiratory mortality which related to GLO were 34 and 30 persons, respectively. Also, Findings showed that approximately 11 % COPD and respiratory mortality happened when the GLO concentrations was more than 20 μg/m 3 . Conclusions: exposure to GLO pollution has stronger effects on human health in Ahvaz. Findings showed that there were a significant relationship between concentration of GLO and COPD and respiratory mortality. Therefore; the higher ozone pollutant value can depict mismanagement in urban air quality.  

  6. Toxoplasma gondii infection in Kyrgyzstan: seroprevalence, risk factor analysis, and estimate of congenital and AIDS-related toxoplasmosis.

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    Gulnara Minbaeva

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: HIV-prevalence, as well as incidence of zoonotic parasitic diseases like cystic echinococcosis, has increased in the Kyrgyz Republic due to fundamental socio-economic changes after the breakdown of the Soviet Union. The possible impact on morbidity and mortality caused by Toxoplasma gondii infection in congenital toxoplasmosis or as an opportunistic infection in the emerging AIDS pandemic has not been reported from Kyrgyzstan. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We screened 1,061 rural and 899 urban people to determine the seroprevalence of T. gondii infection in 2 representative but epidemiologically distinct populations in Kyrgyzstan. The rural population was from a typical agricultural district where sheep husbandry is a major occupation. The urban population was selected in collaboration with several diagnostic laboratories in Bishkek, the largest city in Kyrgyzstan. We designed a questionnaire that was used on all rural subjects so a risk-factor analysis could be undertaken. The samples from the urban population were anonymous and only data with regard to age and gender was available. Estimates of putative cases of congenital and AIDS-related toxoplasmosis in the whole country were made from the results of the serology. Specific antibodies (IgG against Triton X-100 extracted antigens of T. gondii tachyzoites from in vitro cultures were determined by ELISA. Overall seroprevalence of infection with T. gondii in people living in rural vs. urban areas was 6.2% (95%CI: 4.8-7.8 (adjusted seroprevalence based on census figures 5.1%, 95% CI 3.9-6.5, and 19.0% (95%CI: 16.5-21.7 (adjusted 16.4%, 95% CI 14.1-19.3, respectively, without significant gender-specific differences. The seroprevalence increased with age. Independently low social status increased the risk of Toxoplasma seropositivity while increasing numbers of sheep owned decreased the risk of seropositivity. Water supply, consumption of unpasteurized milk products or undercooked

  7. A relative vulnerability estimation of flood disaster using data envelopment analysis in the Dongting Lake region of Hunan

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    C.-H. Li

    2013-07-01

    . On a temporal scale, the occurrence of a vibrating flood vulnerability trend is observed. A different picture is displayed with the disaster driver risk level, disaster environment stability level and disaster bearer sensitivity level. The flood relative vulnerability estimation method based on DEA is characteristic of good comparability, which takes the relative efficiency of disaster system input–output into account, and portrays a very diverse but consistent picture with varying time steps. Therefore, among different spatial and time domains, we could compare the disaster situations with what was reflected by the same disaster. Additionally, the method overcomes the subjectivity of a comprehensive flood index caused by using an a priori weighting system, which exists in disaster vulnerability estimation of current disasters.

  8. A relative vulnerability estimation of flood disaster using data envelopment analysis in the Dongting Lake region of Hunan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, C.-H.; Li, N.; Wu, L.-C.; Hu, A.-J.

    2013-07-01

    scale, the occurrence of a vibrating flood vulnerability trend is observed. A different picture is displayed with the disaster driver risk level, disaster environment stability level and disaster bearer sensitivity level. The flood relative vulnerability estimation method based on DEA is characteristic of good comparability, which takes the relative efficiency of disaster system input-output into account, and portrays a very diverse but consistent picture with varying time steps. Therefore, among different spatial and time domains, we could compare the disaster situations with what was reflected by the same disaster. Additionally, the method overcomes the subjectivity of a comprehensive flood index caused by using an a priori weighting system, which exists in disaster vulnerability estimation of current disasters.

  9. Smoking-attributable medical expenditures by age, sex, and smoking status estimated using a relative risk approach☆

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    Maciosek, Michael V.; Xu, Xin; Butani, Amy L.; Pechacek, Terry F.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To accurately assess the benefits of tobacco control interventions and to better inform decision makers, knowledge of medical expenditures by age, gender, and smoking status is essential. Method We propose an approach to distribute smoking-attributable expenditures by age, gender, and cigarette smoking status to reflect the known risks of smoking. We distribute hospitalization days for smoking-attributable diseases according to relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality, and use the method to determine national estimates of smoking-attributable expenditures by age, sex, and cigarette smoking status. Sensitivity analyses explored assumptions of the method. Results Both current and former smokers ages 75 and over have about 12 times the smoking-attributable expenditures of their current and former smoker counterparts 35–54 years of age. Within each age group, the expenditures of formers smokers are about 70% lower than current smokers. In sensitivity analysis, these results were not robust to large changes to the relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality which were used in the calculations. Conclusion Sex- and age-group-specific smoking expenditures reflect observed disease risk differences between current and former cigarette smokers and indicate that about 70% of current smokers’ excess medical care costs is preventable by quitting. PMID:26051203

  10. Estimation of relative order tensors, and reconstruction of vectors in space using unassigned RDC data and its application

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    Miao, Xijiang; Mukhopadhyay, Rishi; Valafar, Homayoun

    2008-10-01

    Advances in NMR instrumentation and pulse sequence design have resulted in easier acquisition of Residual Dipolar Coupling (RDC) data. However, computational and theoretical analysis of this type of data has continued to challenge the international community of investigators because of their complexity and rich information content. Contemporary use of RDC data has required a-priori assignment, which significantly increases the overall cost of structural analysis. This article introduces a novel algorithm that utilizes unassigned RDC data acquired from multiple alignment media ( nD-RDC, n ⩾ 3) for simultaneous extraction of the relative order tensor matrices and reconstruction of the interacting vectors in space. Estimation of the relative order tensors and reconstruction of the interacting vectors can be invaluable in a number of endeavors. An example application has been presented where the reconstructed vectors have been used to quantify the fitness of a template protein structure to the unknown protein structure. This work has other important direct applications such as verification of the novelty of an unknown protein and validation of the accuracy of an available protein structure model in drug design. More importantly, the presented work has the potential to bridge the gap between experimental and computational methods of structure determination.

  11. Factors Related to Significant Improvement of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rates in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients Receiving Telbivudine Therapy

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    Te-Fu Lin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aim. The improvement of estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs in chronic hepatitis B (CHB patients receiving telbivudine therapy is well known. The aim of this study was to clarify the kinetics of eGFRs and to identify the significant factors related to the improvement of eGFRs in telbivudine-treated CHB patients in a real-world setting. Methods. Serial eGFRs were calculated every 3 months using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI equation. The patients were classified as CKD-1, -2, or -3 according to a baseline eGFR of ≥90, 60–89, or <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively. A significant improvement of eGFR was defined as a more than 10% increase from the baseline. Results. A total of 129 patients were enrolled, of whom 36% had significantly improved eGFRs. According to a multivariate analysis, diabetes mellitus (DM (p=0.028 and CKD-3 (p=0.043 were both significantly related to such improvement. The rates of significant improvement of eGFR were about 73% and 77% in patients with DM and CKD-3, respectively. Conclusions. Telbivudine is an alternative drug of choice for the treatment of hepatitis B patients for whom renal safety is a concern, especially patients with DM and CKD-3.

  12. Estimating the Influence of Housing Energy Efficiency and Overheating Adaptations on Heat-Related Mortality in the West Midlands, UK

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    Jonathon Taylor

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Mortality rates rise during hot weather in England, and projected future increases in heatwave frequency and intensity require the development of heat protection measures such as the adaptation of housing to reduce indoor overheating. We apply a combined building physics and health model to dwellings in the West Midlands, UK, using an English Housing Survey (EHS-derived stock model. Regional temperature exposures, heat-related mortality risk, and space heating energy consumption were estimated for 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s medium emissions climates prior to and following heat mitigating, energy-efficiency, and occupant behaviour adaptations. Risk variation across adaptations, dwellings, and occupant types were assessed. Indoor temperatures were greatest in converted flats, while heat mortality rates were highest in bungalows due to the occupant age profiles. Full energy efficiency retrofit reduced regional domestic space heating energy use by 26% but increased summertime heat mortality 3–4%, while reduced façade absorptance decreased heat mortality 12–15% but increased energy consumption by 4%. External shutters provided the largest reduction in heat mortality (37–43%, while closed windows caused a large increase in risk (29–64%. Ensuring adequate post-retrofit ventilation, targeted installation of shutters, and ensuring operable windows in dwellings with heat-vulnerable occupants may save energy and significantly reduce heat-related mortality.

  13. [Estimation of relation between homocysteine concentration and selected lipid parameters and adhesion molecules concentration in children with atherosclerosis risk factors].

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    Sierakowska-Fijałek, Anna; Baj, Zbigniew; Kaczmarek, Piotr; Stepień, Mariusz; Rysz, Jacek

    2008-10-01

    Atherosclerosis begins in childhood. At present among numerous risk factors of atherosclerosis the role of hiperhomocysteinemia in development of cardiovascular heart disease is taken under consideration. Atherogenic effect of homocystein is related to its cytotoxin action, conducting to endothelial dysfunction and damage. It is correlated with increase of the lipid levels in the blood serum and change of expression of the soluble forms of adhesion molecules. The aim of this study was to estimate relations between the homocystein serum concentration, expression of the selected adhesion molecules and the lipid levels in the blood serum in children with atherosclerosis risk factors. The group consisted of 670 children, 76 of them had atherosclerosis risk factors. In further examination 48 children have taken a part, whose parents were agreed for theirs participation in the program. The comparative group composed of 25 children without the risk factors. We determined total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), LDL cholesterol fraction (LDL-C), HDL cholesterol fraction (HDL-C), serum homocysteine concentration (Hcy), the expression of the soluble forms of adhesion molecules (sCAM): sP-selectin and sVCAM-1 (vascular cell adhesion molecule-1). Obesity, hypertension and lipid disorders in the shape of higher concentration of TC, LDL-C, TG and lower HDL-C were the most frequent risk factors in the investigated children. No significant differences in serum homocysteine concentration were observed between the investigated groups. However, its concentration was significantly higher in children with two atherosclerosis risk factors. No significant differences in expression of s-VCAM-1 were observed in the investigated groups, concentration of sP-selectin was significantly higher in children with atherosclerosis risk factors (phomocysteine and chosen adhesion molecules in children with atherosclerosis risk factors might potentially constitute the marker of early

  14. Comparative analysis estimates the relative frequencies of co-divergence and cross-species transmission within viral families.

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    Jemma L Geoghegan

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The cross-species transmission of viruses from one host species to another is responsible for the majority of emerging infections. However, it is unclear whether some virus families have a greater propensity to jump host species than others. If related viruses have an evolutionary history of co-divergence with their hosts there should be evidence of topological similarities between the virus and host phylogenetic trees, whereas host jumping generates incongruent tree topologies. By analyzing co-phylogenetic processes in 19 virus families and their eukaryotic hosts we provide a quantitative and comparative estimate of the relative frequency of virus-host co-divergence versus cross-species transmission among virus families. Notably, our analysis reveals that cross-species transmission is a near universal feature of the viruses analyzed here, with virus-host co-divergence occurring less frequently and always on a subset of viruses. Despite the overall high topological incongruence among virus and host phylogenies, the Hepadnaviridae, Polyomaviridae, Poxviridae, Papillomaviridae and Adenoviridae, all of which possess double-stranded DNA genomes, exhibited more frequent co-divergence than the other virus families studied here. At the other extreme, the virus and host trees for all the RNA viruses studied here, particularly the Rhabdoviridae and the Picornaviridae, displayed high levels of topological incongruence, indicative of frequent host switching. Overall, we show that cross-species transmission plays a major role in virus evolution, with all the virus families studied here having the potential to jump host species, and that increased sampling will likely reveal more instances of host jumping.

  15. Joint Maximum Likelihood Time Delay Estimation of Unknown Event-Related Potential Signals for EEG Sensor Signal Quality Enhancement

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    Kim, Kyungsoo; Lim, Sung-Ho; Lee, Jaeseok; Kang, Won-Seok; Moon, Cheil; Choi, Ji-Woong

    2016-01-01

    Electroencephalograms (EEGs) measure a brain signal that contains abundant information about the human brain function and health. For this reason, recent clinical brain research and brain computer interface (BCI) studies use EEG signals in many applications. Due to the significant noise in EEG traces, signal processing to enhance the signal to noise power ratio (SNR) is necessary for EEG analysis, especially for non-invasive EEG. A typical method to improve the SNR is averaging many trials of event related potential (ERP) signal that represents a brain’s response to a particular stimulus or a task. The averaging, however, is very sensitive to variable delays. In this study, we propose two time delay estimation (TDE) schemes based on a joint maximum likelihood (ML) criterion to compensate the uncertain delays which may be different in each trial. We evaluate the performance for different types of signals such as random, deterministic, and real EEG signals. The results show that the proposed schemes provide better performance than other conventional schemes employing averaged signal as a reference, e.g., up to 4 dB gain at the expected delay error of 10°. PMID:27322267

  16. Joint Maximum Likelihood Time Delay Estimation of Unknown Event-Related Potential Signals for EEG Sensor Signal Quality Enhancement

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    Kyungsoo Kim

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Electroencephalograms (EEGs measure a brain signal that contains abundant information about the human brain function and health. For this reason, recent clinical brain research and brain computer interface (BCI studies use EEG signals in many applications. Due to the significant noise in EEG traces, signal processing to enhance the signal to noise power ratio (SNR is necessary for EEG analysis, especially for non-invasive EEG. A typical method to improve the SNR is averaging many trials of event related potential (ERP signal that represents a brain’s response to a particular stimulus or a task. The averaging, however, is very sensitive to variable delays. In this study, we propose two time delay estimation (TDE schemes based on a joint maximum likelihood (ML criterion to compensate the uncertain delays which may be different in each trial. We evaluate the performance for different types of signals such as random, deterministic, and real EEG signals. The results show that the proposed schemes provide better performance than other conventional schemes employing averaged signal as a reference, e.g., up to 4 dB gain at the expected delay error of 10°.

  17. Estimating least-developed countries’ vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years

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    Patt, Anthony G.; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

    2010-01-01

    When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries’ exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries’ own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation. PMID:20080585

  18. Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years.

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    Patt, Anthony G; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

    2010-01-26

    When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries' exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries' own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation.

  19. Relative frequency and estimated minimal frequency of Lysosomal Storage Diseases in Brazil: Report from a Reference Laboratory

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    Roberto Giugliani

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Lysosomal storage diseases (LSDs comprise a heterogeneous group of more than 50 genetic conditions of inborn errors of metabolism (IEM caused by a defect in lysosomal function. Although there are screening tests for some of these conditions, diagnosis usually depends on specific enzyme assays, which are only available in a few laboratories around the world. A pioneer facility for the diagnosis of IEM and LSDs was established in the South of Brazil in 1982 and has served as a reference service since then. Over the past 34 years, samples from 72,797 patients were referred for investigation of IEM, and 3,211 were confirmed as having an LSD (4.41%, or 1 in 22, with 3,099 of these patients originating from Brazil. The rate of diagnosis has increased over time, in part due to the creation of diagnostic networks involving a large number of Brazilian services. These cases, referred from Brazilian regions, provide insight about the relative frequency of LSDs in the country. The large amount of data available allows for the estimation of the minimal frequency of specific LSDs in Brazil. The reported data could help to plan health care policies, as there are specific therapies available for most of the cases diagnosed.

  20. Comparison of relative efficiency of genomic SSR and EST-SSR markers in estimating genetic diversity in sugarcane.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parthiban, S; Govindaraj, P; Senthilkumar, S

    2018-03-01

    Twenty-five primer pairs developed from genomic simple sequence repeats (SSR) were compared with 25 expressed sequence tags (EST) SSRs to evaluate the efficiency of these two sets of primers using 59 sugarcane genetic stocks. The mean polymorphism information content (PIC) of genomic SSR was higher (0.72) compared to the PIC value recorded by EST-SSR marker (0.62). The relatively low level of polymorphism in EST-SSR markers may be due to the location of these markers in more conserved and expressed sequences compared to genomic sequences which are spread throughout the genome. Dendrogram based on the genomic SSR and EST-SSR marker data showed differences in grouping of genotypes. A total of 59 sugarcane accessions were grouped into 6 and 4 clusters using genomic SSR and EST-SSR, respectively. The highly efficient genomic SSR could subcluster the genotypes of some of the clusters formed by EST-SSR markers. The difference in dendrogram observed was probably due to the variation in number of markers produced by genomic SSR and EST-SSR and different portion of genome amplified by both the markers. The combined dendrogram (genomic SSR and EST-SSR) more clearly showed the genetic relationship among the sugarcane genotypes by forming four clusters. The mean genetic similarity (GS) value obtained using EST-SSR among 59 sugarcane accessions was 0.70, whereas the mean GS obtained using genomic SSR was 0.63. Although relatively lower level of polymorphism was displayed by the EST-SSR markers, genetic diversity shown by the EST-SSR was found to be promising as they were functional marker. High level of PIC and low genetic similarity values of genomic SSR may be more useful in DNA fingerprinting, selection of true hybrids, identification of variety specific markers and genetic diversity analysis. Identification of diverse parents based on cluster analysis can be effectively done with EST-SSR as the genetic similarity estimates are based on functional attributes related to

  1. Estimate of anthropogenic halocarbon emission based on measured ratio relative to CO in the Pearl River Delta region, China

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    M. Shao

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Using a GC/FID/MS system, we analyzed the mixing ratio of 16 halocarbon species in more than 100 air samples collected in 2004 from the Pearl River Delta (PRD region of southern China. The results revealed that there are elevated mixing ratios for most of halocarbons, especially for HClC = CCl2 (trichloroethylene, TCE, CH2Cl2 (dichloromethane, DCM, CH3 Br (bromomethane, HCFC-22, CHCl3 (trichloromethane, CCl4 (tetrachloromethane, Cl2C = CCl2 (perchloroethylene, PCE, CH3CCl3 (methyl chloroform, MCF, and CFC-12. Comparisons were done with the data from TRACE-P and ALE/GAGE/AGAGE experiments, we found that the large variability in mixing ratios (relative standard deviation ranged from 9.31 % to 96.55 % of the halocarbons suggested substantial local emissions from the PRD region in 2004. Correlations between the mixing ratio of each species and carbon monoxide (CO was examined, and then the emission of each halocarbon was quantified based on scaling the optimized CO emission inventory with the slope of the regression line fitted to each species relative to CO. The calculated results revealed that mass of CH2Cl2 (7.0 Gg, CH3CCl3 (6.7 Gg, and Cl2C = CCl2 (2.3 Gg accounted for about 62.9 % of total halocarbon emissions, it suggested a significant contribution from solvent use in the PRD region. Emissions of HCFC-22 (3.5 Gg, an alternative refrigerant to chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs, were about 2.3 times greater than those of CFC-12 (1.6 Gg. CFC-12 and HCFC-22 accounted for 21.5 % of total emissions of halocarbons, so that the refrigerant would be the second largest source of halocarbons. However, the ratio approach found only minor emissions of CFCs, such as CFC-11, and the emission of CFC-114 and CFC-113 were close to zero. Emissions of other anthropogenic halocarbons, such as CCl

  2. Estimation of the prevalence and distribution of HPV genotypes and identification of related risk factors among Turkish women

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    Mehmet Kulhan

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the study : The present study aims to estimate the prevalence and distribution of HPV genotypes and identify related risk factors among Turkish women. Material and methods : 11 624 Turkish women attending our gynaecological clinic and expressing a desire for access to cervical cancer screening were assessed during the years 2014–2016. Cervical specimens were collected and transported using the HC2 HPV DNA Collection Device (consisting of a cervical brush and digene Specimen Transport Medium. Results : Among these 11 624 individuals, positive HPV test results were obtained for 325 (2.79%, and negative results were observed for 11 299 (97.2%. The vast majority of patients were between the 3rd and 5th decades and the mean age of the patients was 44 ±9.12 (range 27–66. Among the HPV-positive women, 205 were positive for a single HPV type (205/325 = 63.1% of HPV infections; 205/11624 = 1.76% of all samples and 120 were positive for multiple types (120/325 = 36.9% of HPV infections; 120/11624 = 1.03% of all samples. The four most prevalent high-risk types were HPV 16, 31, 51 and 52, with frequencies of 11.25%, 7.83%, 6.06% and 3.16%, respectively. Conclusions : There appears to be geographic variation in the distribution of HPV genotypes. In this study, the four most prevalent high-risk types were HPV 16, 31, 51 and 52, with frequencies of 11.25%, 7.83%, 6.06% and 3.16%, respectively.

  3. Estimating the temporal and spatial risk of bluetongue related to the incursion of infected vectors into Switzerland

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    Griot C

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The design of veterinary and public health surveillance systems has been improved by the ability to combine Geographical Information Systems (GIS, mathematical models and up to date epidemiological knowledge. In Switzerland, an early warning system was developed for detecting the incursion of the bluetongue disease virus (BT and to monitor the frequency of its vectors. Based on data generated by this surveillance system, GIS and transmission models were used in order to determine suitable seasonal vector habitat locations and risk periods for a larger and more targeted surveillance program. Results Combined thematic maps of temperature, humidity and altitude were created to visualize the association with Culicoides vector habitat locations. Additional monthly maps of estimated basic reproduction number transmission rates (R0 were created in order to highlight areas of Switzerland prone to higher BT outbreaks in relation to both vector activity and transmission levels. The maps revealed several foci of higher risk areas, especially in northern parts of Switzerland, suitable for both vector presence and vector activity for 2006. Results showed a variation of R0 values comparing 2005 and 2006 yet suggested that Switzerland was at risk of an outbreak of BT, especially if the incursion arrived in a suitable vector activity period. Since the time of conducting these analyses, this suitability has proved to be the case with the recent outbreaks of BT in northern Switzerland. Conclusion Our results stress the importance of environmental factors and their effect on the dynamics of a vector-borne disease. In this case, results of this model were used as input parameters for creating a national targeted surveillance program tailored to both the spatial and the temporal aspect of the disease and its vectors. In this manner, financial and logistic resources can be used in an optimal way through seasonally and geographically adjusted

  4. Estimating the proportion of groundwater recharge from flood events in relation to total annual recharge in a karst aquifer

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    Dvory, N. Z.; Ronen, A.; Livshitz, Y.; Adar, E.; Kuznetsov, M.; Yakirevich, A.

    2017-12-01

    Sustainable groundwater production from karstic aquifers is primarily dictated by its recharge rate. Therefore, in order to limit over-exploitation, it is essential to accurately quantify groundwater recharge. Infiltration during erratic floods in karstic basins may contribute substantial amount to aquifer recharge. However, the complicated nature of karst systems, which are characterized in part by multiple springs, sinkholes, and losing/gaining streams, present a large obstacle to accurately assess the actual contribution of flood water to groundwater recharge. In this study, we aim to quantify the proportion of groundwater recharge during flood events in relation to the annual recharge for karst aquifers. The role of karst conduits on flash flood infiltration was examined during four flood and artificial runoff events in the Sorek creek near Jerusalem, Israel. The events were monitored in short time steps (four minutes). This high resolution analysis is essential to accurately estimating surface flow volumes, which are of particular importance in arid and semi-arid climate where ephemeral flows may provide a substantial contribution to the groundwater reservoirs. For the present investigation, we distinguished between direct infiltration, percolation through karst conduits and diffused infiltration, which is most affected by evapotranspiration. A water balance was then calculated for the 2014/15 hydrologic year using the Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). Simulations show that an additional 8% to 24% of the annual recharge volume is added from runoff losses along the creek that infiltrate through the karst system into the aquifer. The results improve the understanding of recharge processes and support the use of the proposed methodology for quantifying groundwater recharge.

  5. German EstSmoke: estimating adult smoking-related costs and consequences of smoking cessation for Germany.

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    Sonntag, Diana; Gilbody, Simon; Winkler, Volker; Ali, Shehzad

    2018-01-01

    We compared predicted life-time health-care costs for current, never and ex-smokers in Germany under the current set of tobacco control polices. We compared these economic consequences of the current situation with an alternative in which Germany were to implement more comprehensive tobacco control policies consistent with the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) guidelines. German EstSmoke, an adapted version of the UK EstSmoke simulation model, applies the Markov modelling approach. Transition probabilities for (re-)currence of smoking-related diseases were calculated from large German disease-specific registries and the German Health Update (GEDA 2010). Estimations of both health-care costs and effect sizes of smoking cessation policies were taken from recent German studies and discounted at 3.5%/year. Germany. German population of prevalent current, never and ex-smokers in 2009. Life-time cost and outcomes in current, never and ex-smokers. If tobacco control policies are not strengthened, the German smoking population will incur €41.56 billion life-time excess costs compared with never smokers. Implementing tobacco control policies consistent with WHO FCTC guidelines would reduce the difference of life-time costs between current smokers and ex-smokers by at least €1.7 billion. Modelling suggests that the life-time healthcare costs of people in Germany who smoke are substantially greater than those of people who have never smoked. However, more comprehensive tobacco control policies could reduce health-care expenditures for current smokers by at least 4%. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  6. On estimates of the pion-nucleon sigma term by the dispersion relations and taking into account the interrelation between the chiral and scale invariance breaking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efrosinin, V.P.; Zaikin, D.A.

    1983-01-01

    Possible reasons of disagreement between estimates of the pion-nucleon σ term obtained by the method of dispersion relations with extrapolation to the Chang-Dashen point and by alternative methods, making no use of such extrapolation are investigated. One of the reasons may be, that the πN amplitude is not analytic in the variable t at ν=0. A method, which is not so strongly influenced by the nonanalyticity, is suggested to estimate the σ term making use of the threshold data for the πN amplitude. Relation between the scale and chiral invariance breakings is discussed and the resulting estimate of the σ term is presented. Both estimates give close results (42 and 34 MeV) which do not contradict one another within the uncertainties of the methods

  7. Estimating uncertainty and its temporal variation related to global climate models in quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

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    Shen, Mingxi; Chen, Jie; Zhuan, Meijia; Chen, Hua; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xiong, Lihua

    2018-01-01

    Uncertainty estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology has received much attention in the research community. The choice of a global climate model (GCM) is usually considered as the largest contributor to the uncertainty of climate change impacts. The temporal variation of GCM uncertainty needs to be investigated for making long-term decisions to deal with climate change. Accordingly, this study investigated the temporal variation (mainly long-term) of uncertainty related to the choice of a GCM in predicting climate change impacts on hydrology by using multi-GCMs over multiple continuous future periods. Specifically, twenty CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were adapted to adequately represent this uncertainty envelope, fifty-one 30-year future periods moving from 2021 to 2100 with 1-year interval were produced to express the temporal variation. Future climatic and hydrological regimes over all future periods were compared to those in the reference period (1971-2000) using a set of metrics, including mean and extremes. The periodicity of climatic and hydrological changes and their uncertainty were analyzed using wavelet analysis, while the trend was analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test and regression analysis. The results showed that both future climate change (precipitation and temperature) and hydrological response predicted by the twenty GCMs were highly uncertain, and the uncertainty increased significantly over time. For example, the change of mean annual precipitation increased from 1.4% in 2021-2050 to 6.5% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5 in terms of the median value of multi-models, but the projected uncertainty reached 21.7% in 2021-2050 and 25.1% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5. The uncertainty under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) was much larger than that under a relatively low emission scenario (RCP4.5). Almost all climatic and hydrological regimes and their uncertainty did not show significant periodicity at the P = .05 significance

  8. Cedar River Chinook genotypes - Estimate relative reproductive success of hatchery and wild fall Chinook salmon in the Cedar River

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — We are using genetic pedigree information to estimate the reproductive success of hatchery and wild fall-run Chinook salmon spawning in the Cedar River, Washington....

  9. Possible role of the scintigraphic estimation of the relative liver perfusion in the choice of treatment of liver carcinomas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Artiko, V.; Obradovic, V.; Davidovic, B.; Petrovic, N.; Vlajkoviae, M.; Kostic, K.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: In the pre-evaluation and diagnosis of the patients with liver tumors, significant nuclear medicine methods used are: radiocolloid, blood pool, hepatobiliary scintigraphy, angioscintigraphy with radiolabeled microspheres as well as 'first pass' radionuclide angiography, which can precede all of the above mentioned methods, during single injection application. The aim of the study is evaluation of the possible role of the scintigraphic estimation of the relative liver perfusion in the choice of treatment of liver carcinomas. The study was performed in 120 patients: 24 controls (C), 35 with benign liver tumors (BT), 35 with hepatocellular carcinomas (HCC), 19 with metastases of colorectal carcinomas (MCC) as well as 7 with metastases of other tumors (MOT-bronchus, lung carcinoma and lymphoma). 7/35 HCC had cavernous portal vein developed after tumor thrombosis, 2 had complete thrombosis and 5 had incomplete thrombosis (thrombosis of the either of portal venous branches (3) and incomplete portal venous thrombosis -2). 2/19 patients with MCC had cavernous portal vein developed after tumor thrombosis, 3 had complete portal venous occlusion and 4 incomplete thrombosis (thrombosis of the either of branches). The study was performed with ROTA scintillation camera and Micro Delta computer, during 60 sec (1f/sec) from i.v.application of 740 MBq 99mTc-pertecnetate. TA curves were generated using liver ROI, spleen ROI and left kidney ROI, and curves were generated. Hepatic perfusion index was calculated using slope analysis (Portal slope Ps and arterial slope As) method according to following formula HPI=Ps/(Ps+As). Complementary methods used were Doppler ultrasonography, CT, MRI, tumor marker assays (CEA, Ca19-9, AFP) laboratory analyses, pathohistological finding and clinical diagnosis. In C, HPI was 0.68±0.06 which did not differ from the value in BT (0.64 ±0.08) (p>0.05). However, in HCC ( X=0.26±0.20), and LM (X=0.40±0.28), HPI values were significantly

  10. MODEL-ASSISTED ESTIMATION OF THE GENETIC VARIABILITY IN PHYSIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS RELATED TO TOMATO FRUIT GROWTH UNDER CONTRASTED WATER CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Constantinescu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Drought stress is a major abiotic stres threatening plant and crop productivity. In case of fleshy fruits, understanding Drought stress is a major abiotic stress threatening plant and crop productivity. In case of fleshy fruits, understanding mechanisms governing water and carbon accumulations and identifying genes, QTLs and phenotypes, that will enable trade-offs between fruit growth and quality under Water Deficit (WD condition is a crucial challenge for breeders and growers. In the present work, 117 recombinant inbred lines of a population of Solanum lycopersicum were phenotyped under control and WD conditions. Plant water status, fruit growth and composition were measured and data were used to calibrate a process-based model describing water and carbon fluxes in a growing fruit as a function of plant and environment. Eight genotype-dependent model parameters were estimated using a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm in order to minimize the prediction errors of fruit dry and fresh mass throughout fruit development. WD increased the fruit dry matter content (up to 85 % and decreased its fresh weight (up to 60 %, big fruit size genotypes being the most sensitive. The mean normalized root mean squared errors of the predictions ranged between 16-18 % in the population. Variability in model genotypic parameters allowed us to explore diverse genetic strategies in response to WD. An interesting group of genotypes could be discriminated in which i the low loss of fresh mass under WD was associated with high active uptake of sugars and low value of the maximum cell wall extensibility, and ii the high dry matter content in control treatment (C was associated with a slow decrease of mass flow. Using 501 SNP markers genotyped across the genome, a QTL analysis of model parameters allowed to detect three main QTLs related to xylem and phloem conductivities, on chromosomes 2, 4 and 8. The model was then applied to design ideotypes with high dry matter

  11. Mapping land water and energy balance relations through conditional sampling of remote sensing estimates of atmospheric forcing and surface states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farhadi, Leila; Entekhabi, Dara; Salvucci, Guido

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we develop and apply a mapping estimation capability for key unknown parameters that link the surface water and energy balance equations. The method is applied to the Gourma region in West Africa. The accuracy of the estimation method at point scale was previously examined using flux tower data. In this study, the capability is scaled to be applicable with remotely sensed data products and hence allow mapping. Parameters of the system are estimated through a process that links atmospheric forcing (precipitation and incident radiation), surface states, and unknown parameters. Based on conditional averaging of land surface temperature and moisture states, respectively, a single objective function is posed that measures moisture and temperature-dependent errors solely in terms of observed forcings and surface states. This objective function is minimized with respect to parameters to identify evapotranspiration and drainage models and estimate water and energy balance flux components. The uncertainty of the estimated parameters (and associated statistical confidence limits) is obtained through the inverse of Hessian of the objective function, which is an approximation of the covariance matrix. This calibration-free method is applied to the mesoscale region of Gourma in West Africa using multiplatform remote sensing data. The retrievals are verified against tower-flux field site data and physiographic characteristics of the region. The focus is to find the functional form of the evaporative fraction dependence on soil moisture, a key closure function for surface and subsurface heat and moisture dynamics, using remote sensing data.

  12. Comprehensive analysis of proton range uncertainties related to patient stopping-power-ratio estimation using the stoichiometric calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ming; Zhu, X. Ronald; Park, Peter C.; Titt, Uwe; Mohan, Radhe; Virshup, Gary; Clayton, James E.; Dong, Lei

    2012-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyze factors affecting proton stopping-power-ratio (SPR) estimations and range uncertainties in proton therapy planning using the standard stoichiometric calibration. The SPR uncertainties were grouped into five categories according to their origins and then estimated based on previously published reports or measurements. For the first time, the impact of tissue composition variations on SPR estimation was assessed and the uncertainty estimates of each category were determined for low-density (lung), soft, and high-density (bone) tissues. A composite, 95th percentile water-equivalent-thickness uncertainty was calculated from multiple beam directions in 15 patients with various types of cancer undergoing proton therapy. The SPR uncertainties (1σ) were quite different (ranging from 1.6% to 5.0%) in different tissue groups, although the final combined uncertainty (95th percentile) for different treatment sites was fairly consistent at 3.0-3.4%, primarily because soft tissue is the dominant tissue type in the human body. The dominant contributing factor for uncertainties in soft tissues was the degeneracy of Hounsfield numbers in the presence of tissue composition variations. To reduce the overall uncertainties in SPR estimation, the use of dual-energy computed tomography is suggested. The values recommended in this study based on typical treatment sites and a small group of patients roughly agree with the commonly referenced value (3.5%) used for margin design. By using tissue-specific range uncertainties, one could estimate the beam-specific range margin by accounting for different types and amounts of tissues along a beam, which may allow for customization of range uncertainty for each beam direction.

  13. An evaluation of the influence of the experimental cooling rate along with other thermomagnetic effects to explain anomalously low paleointensities obtained for historic lavas of Mt. Etna (Italy)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, L.V.; Mullender, T.A.T.; Dekkers, M.J.

    2013-01-01

    Methodological aspects in obtaining reliable absolute palaeointensity estimates have attracted renewed attention in recent years. Obtaining a reliable palaeointensity from lavas, however, still is notoriously difficult: in many cases lavas have been shown to be a non-ideal recorder of the

  14. Exposure to Traffic-related Air Pollution During Pregnancy and Term Low Birth Weight: Estimation of Causal Associations in a Semiparametric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padula, Amy M.; Mortimer, Kathleen; Hubbard, Alan; Lurmann, Frederick; Jerrett, Michael; Tager, Ira B.

    2012-01-01

    Traffic-related air pollution is recognized as an important contributor to health problems. Epidemiologic analyses suggest that prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollutants may be associated with adverse birth outcomes; however, there is insufficient evidence to conclude that the relation is causal. The Study of Air Pollution, Genetics and Early Life Events comprises all births to women living in 4 counties in California's San Joaquin Valley during the years 2000–2006. The probability of low birth weight among full-term infants in the population was estimated using machine learning and targeted maximum likelihood estimation for each quartile of traffic exposure during pregnancy. If everyone lived near high-volume freeways (approximated as the fourth quartile of traffic density), the estimated probability of term low birth weight would be 2.27% (95% confidence interval: 2.16, 2.38) as compared with 2.02% (95% confidence interval: 1.90, 2.12) if everyone lived near smaller local roads (first quartile of traffic density). Assessment of potentially causal associations, in the absence of arbitrary model assumptions applied to the data, should result in relatively unbiased estimates. The current results support findings from previous studies that prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollution may adversely affect birth weight among full-term infants. PMID:23045474

  15. Estimating one's own and one's relatives' multiple intelligence: a cross-cultural study from East Timor and Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neto, Félix; Furnham, Adrian; Pinto, Maria da Conceição

    2009-11-01

    This study examined estimates of their own, and their parents' general and multiple intelligences. Three hundred and twenty three students from East Timor, and one hundred eighty three students from Portugal estimated their own, and their parents' IQ scores on each of Gardner's ten multiple intelligences. Men believed they were more intelligent than were women on mathematical (logical), spatial, and naturalistic intelligence. There were consistent and clear culture differences. Portuguese gave higher self, and family ratings than Timorese, as expected. Participants of both cultures rated overall intelligence of their father higher than that of their mother. Implications of these results for education and self-presentations are considered.

  16. PROPOSED MODIFICATIONS OF K2-TEMPERATURE RELATION AND LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATES OF BOD (BIOCHEMICAL OXYGEN DEMAND) PARAMETERS

    Science.gov (United States)

    A technique is presented for finding the least squares estimates for the ultimate biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and rate coefficient for the BOD reaction without resorting to complicated computer algorithms or subjective graphical methods. This may be used in stream water quali...

  17. Contributions of national and global health estimates to monitoring health-related Sustainable Development Goals in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Limwattananon, Supon; Kusreesakul, Khanitta; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

    2017-01-01

    The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) triggered increased demand for data on child and maternal mortality for monitoring progress. With the advent of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition towards non-communicable diseases, policy makers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper draws lessons learned from Thailand's burden of disease study (BOD) on capacity development for NHEs, and discusses the contributions and limitation of GHEs in informing policies at country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and sub-national levels. Initially, the quality of cause of death reporting in the death certificates was inadequate, especially for deaths occurring in the community. Verbal autopsies were conducted, using domestic resources, to determine probable causes of deaths occurring in the community. This helped improve the estimation of years of life lost. Since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002, the quality of clinical data on morbidities has also considerably improved. There are significant discrepancies between the 2010 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) estimates for Thailand and the 1999 nationally generated BOD, especially for years of life lost due to HIV/AIDS, and the ranking of priority diseases. National ownership of NHEs and effective interfaces between researchers and decision makers contribute to enhanced country policy responses, while sub-national data are intended to be used by various sub-national-level partners. Though GHEs contribute to benchmarking country achievement compared with global health

  18. Estimating changes in lichen mat volume through time and related effects on barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) movement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rickbeil, Gregory J M; Hermosilla, Txomin; Coops, Nicholas C; White, Joanne C; Wulder, Michael A

    2017-01-01

    Lichens form a critical portion of barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) diets, especially during winter months. Here, we assess lichen mat volume across five herd ranges in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada, using newly developed composite Landsat imagery. The lichen volume estimator (LVE) was adapted for use across 700 000 km2 of barren ground caribou habitat annually from 1984-2012. We subsequently assessed how LVE changed temporally throughout the time series for each pixel using Theil-Sen's slopes, and spatially by assessing whether slope values were centered in local clusters of similar values. Additionally, we assessed how LVE estimates resulted in changes in barren ground caribou movement rates using an extensive telemetry data set from 2006-2011. The Ahiak/Beverly herd had the largest overall increase in LVE (median = 0.033), while the more western herds had the least (median slopes below zero in all cases). LVE slope pixels were arranged in significant clusters across the study area, with the Cape Bathurst, Bathurst, and Bluenose East herds having the most significant clusters of negative slopes (more than 20% of vegetated land in each case). The Ahiak/Beverly and Bluenose West had the most significant positive clusters (16.3% and 18.5% of vegetated land respectively). Barren ground caribou displayed complex reactions to changing lichen conditions depending on season; the majority of detected associations with movement data agreed with current understanding of barren ground caribou foraging behavior (the exception was an increase in movement velocity at high lichen volume estimates in Fall). The temporal assessment of LVE identified areas where shifts in ecological conditions may have resulted in changing lichen mat conditions, while assessing the slope estimates for clustering identified zones beyond the pixel scale where forage conditions may be changing. Lichen volume estimates associated with barren ground caribou

  19. Estimating changes in lichen mat volume through time and related effects on barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermosilla, Txomin; Coops, Nicholas C.; White, Joanne C.; Wulder, Michael A.

    2017-01-01

    Lichens form a critical portion of barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) diets, especially during winter months. Here, we assess lichen mat volume across five herd ranges in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada, using newly developed composite Landsat imagery. The lichen volume estimator (LVE) was adapted for use across 700 000 km2 of barren ground caribou habitat annually from 1984–2012. We subsequently assessed how LVE changed temporally throughout the time series for each pixel using Theil-Sen’s slopes, and spatially by assessing whether slope values were centered in local clusters of similar values. Additionally, we assessed how LVE estimates resulted in changes in barren ground caribou movement rates using an extensive telemetry data set from 2006–2011. The Ahiak/Beverly herd had the largest overall increase in LVE (median = 0.033), while the more western herds had the least (median slopes below zero in all cases). LVE slope pixels were arranged in significant clusters across the study area, with the Cape Bathurst, Bathurst, and Bluenose East herds having the most significant clusters of negative slopes (more than 20% of vegetated land in each case). The Ahiak/Beverly and Bluenose West had the most significant positive clusters (16.3% and 18.5% of vegetated land respectively). Barren ground caribou displayed complex reactions to changing lichen conditions depending on season; the majority of detected associations with movement data agreed with current understanding of barren ground caribou foraging behavior (the exception was an increase in movement velocity at high lichen volume estimates in Fall). The temporal assessment of LVE identified areas where shifts in ecological conditions may have resulted in changing lichen mat conditions, while assessing the slope estimates for clustering identified zones beyond the pixel scale where forage conditions may be changing. Lichen volume estimates associated with barren ground caribou

  20. Fall in hematocrit per 1000 parasites cleared from peripheral blood: a simple method for estimating drug-related fall in hematocrit after treatment of malaria infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gbotosho, Grace Olusola; Okuboyejo, Titilope; Happi, Christian Tientcha; Sowunmi, Akintunde

    2014-01-01

    A simple method to estimate antimalarial drug-related fall in hematocrit (FIH) after treatment of Plasmodium falciparum infections in the field is described. The method involves numeric estimation of the relative difference in hematocrit at baseline (pretreatment) and the first 1 or 2 days after treatment begun as numerator and the corresponding relative difference in parasitemia as the denominator, and expressing it per 1000 parasites cleared from peripheral blood. Using the method showed that FIH/1000 parasites cleared from peripheral blood (cpb) at 24 or 48 hours were similar in artemether-lumefantrine and artesunate-amodiaquine-treated children (0.09; 95% confidence interval, 0.052-0.138 vs 0.10; 95% confidence interval, 0.069-0.139%; P = 0.75) FIH/1000 parasites cpb in patients with higher parasitemias were significantly (P 1000 parasites cpb were similar in anemic and nonanemic children. Estimation of FIH/1000 parasites cpb is simple, allows estimation of relatively conserved hematocrit during treatment, and can be used in both observational studies and clinical trials involving antimalarial drugs.

  1. Estimation of Environment-Related Properties of Chemicals for Design of Sustainable Processes: Development of Group-Contribution+ (GC+) Property Models and Uncertainty Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    The aim of this work is to develop group-contribution+ (GC+) method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI) method) based property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncert...

  2. Economic evaluations of occupational health interventions from a company's perspective: A systematic review of methods to estimate the cost of health-related productivity loss

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uegaki, K.; Bruijne, M.C. de; Beek, A.J. van der; Mechelen, W. van; Tulder, M.W. van

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the methods used to estimate the indirect costs of health-related productivity in economic evaluations from a company's perspective. Methods: The primary literature search was conducted in Medline and Embase. Supplemental searches were conducted in the Cochrane NHS

  3. Estimation of environment-related properties of chemicals for design of sustainable processes: development of group-contribution+ (GC+) property models and uncertainty analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hukkerikar, Amol Shivajirao; Kalakul, Sawitree; Sarup, Bent; Young, Douglas M; Sin, Gürkan; Gani, Rafiqul

    2012-11-26

    The aim of this work is to develop group-contribution(+) (GC(+)) method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI) method) based property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncertainties of estimated property values. For this purpose, a systematic methodology for property modeling and uncertainty analysis is used. The methodology includes a parameter estimation step to determine parameters of property models and an uncertainty analysis step to establish statistical information about the quality of parameter estimation, such as the parameter covariance, the standard errors in predicted properties, and the confidence intervals. For parameter estimation, large data sets of experimentally measured property values of a wide range of chemicals (hydrocarbons, oxygenated chemicals, nitrogenated chemicals, poly functional chemicals, etc.) taken from the database of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and from the database of USEtox is used. For property modeling and uncertainty analysis, the Marrero and Gani GC method and atom connectivity index method have been considered. In total, 22 environment-related properties, which include the fathead minnow 96-h LC(50), Daphnia magna 48-h LC(50), oral rat LD(50), aqueous solubility, bioconcentration factor, permissible exposure limit (OSHA-TWA), photochemical oxidation potential, global warming potential, ozone depletion potential, acidification potential, emission to urban air (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental rural air (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental fresh water (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental seawater (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental natural soil (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), and emission to continental agricultural soil (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) have been modeled and analyzed. The application

  4. Temporal analysis of vegetation indices related to biophysical parameters using Sentinel 2A images to estimate maize production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macedo, Lucas Saran; Kawakubo, Fernando Shinji

    2017-10-01

    Agricultural production is one of the most important Brazilian economic activities accounting for about 21,5% of total Gross Domestic Product. In this scenario, the use of satellite images for estimating biophysical parameters along the phenological development of agricultural crops allows the conclusion about the sanity of planting and helps the projection on design production trends. The objective of this study is to analyze the temporal patterns and variation of six vegetion indexes obtained from the bands of Sentinel 2A satellite, associated with greenness (NDVI and ClRE), senescence (mARI and PSRI) and water content (DSWI and NDWI) to estimate maize production. The temporal pattern of the indices was analyzed in function of productivity data collected in-situ. The results obtained evidenced the importance of the SWIR and Red Edge ranges with Pearson correlation values of the temporal mean for NDWI 0.88 and 0.76 for CLRE.

  5. Relative validity of fruit and vegetable intake estimated by the food frequency questionnaire used in the Danish National Birth Cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Tina B.; Olsen, Sjurdur F.; Rasmussen, Salka E.

    2007-01-01

    ) (r=0.57); and fruit, vegetables, and juice (F&V&J) (r=0.62). Sensitivities of correct classification by FFQ into the two lowest and the two highest quintiles of F&V&J intake were 58-67% and 50-74%, respectively, and specificities were 71-79% and 65-83%, respectively. F&V&J intake estimated from......Objective: To validate the fruit and vegetable intake estimated from the Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) used in the Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC). Subjects and setting: The DNBC is a cohort of 101,042 pregnant women in Denmark, who received a FFQ by mail in gestation week 25. A validation...... study with 88 participants was made. A seven-day weighed food diary (FD) and three different biomarkers were employed as comparison methods. Results: Significant correlations between FFQ and FD-based estimates were found for fruit (r=0.66); vegetables (r=0.32); juice (r=0.52); fruit and vegetables (F&V...

  6. Patient absorbed radiation doses estimation related to irradiation anatomy; Estimativa de dose absorvida pelo paciente relacionada a anatomia irradiada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soares, Flavio Augusto Penna; Soares, Amanda Anastacio; Kahl, Gabrielly Gomes, E-mail: prof.flavio@gmail.com, E-mail: amanda-a-soares@hotmail.com, E-mail: gabriellygkahl@gmail.com [Instituto Federal de Eduacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia de Santa Catarina (IFSC), Florianopolis, SC (Brazil)

    2014-07-01

    Developed a direct equation to estimate the absorbed dose to the patient in x-ray examinations, using electric, geometric parameters and filtering combined with data from irradiated anatomy. To determine the absorbed dose for each examination, the entrance skin dose (ESD) is adjusted to the thickness of the patient's specific anatomy. ESD is calculated from the estimated KERMA greatness in the air. Beer-Lambert equations derived from power data mass absorption coefficients obtained from the NIST / USA, were developed for each tissue: bone, muscle, fat and skin. Skin thickness was set at 2 mm and the bone was estimated in the central ray of the site, in the anteroposterior view. Because they are similar in density and attenuation coefficients, muscle and fat are treated as a single tissue. For evaluation of the full equations, we chose three different anatomies: chest, hand and thigh. Although complex in its shape, the equations simplify direct determination of absorbed dose from the characteristics of the equipment and patient. The input data is inserted at a single time and total absorbed dose (mGy) is calculated instantly. The average error, when compared with available data, is less than 5% in any combination of device data and exams. In calculating the dose for an exam and patient, the operator can choose the variables that will deposit less radiation to the patient through the prior analysis of each combination of variables, using the ALARA principle in routine diagnostic radiology sector.

  7. Health-related quality of life among adults 65 years and older in the United States, 2011-2012: a multilevel small area estimation approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yu-Hsiu; McLain, Alexander C; Probst, Janice C; Bennett, Kevin J; Qureshi, Zaina P; Eberth, Jan M

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop county-level estimates of poor health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among aged 65 years and older U.S. adults and to identify spatial clusters of poor HRQOL using a multilevel, poststratification approach. Multilevel, random-intercept models were fit to HRQOL data (two domains: physical health and mental health) from the 2011-2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Using a poststratification, small area estimation approach, we generated county-level probabilities of having poor HRQOL for each domain in U.S. adults aged 65 and older, and validated our model-based estimates against state and county direct estimates. County-level estimates of poor HRQOL in the United States ranged from 18.07% to 44.81% for physical health and 14.77% to 37.86% for mental health. Correlations between model-based and direct estimates were higher for physical than mental HRQOL. Counties located in the Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi exhibited the worst physical HRQOL scores, but this pattern did not hold for mental HRQOL, which had the highest probability of mentally unhealthy days in Illinois, Indiana, and Vermont. Substantial geographic variation in physical and mental HRQOL scores exists among older U.S. adults. State and local policy makers should consider these local conditions in targeting interventions and policies to counties with high levels of poor HRQOL scores. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Use of surveillance data on HIV diagnoses with HIV-related symptoms to estimate the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV in need of antiretroviral therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lodwick, Rebecca K; Nakagawa, Fumiyo; van Sighem, Ard; Sabin, Caroline A; Phillips, Andrew N

    2015-01-01

    It is important to have methods available to estimate the number of people who have undiagnosed HIV and are in need of antiretroviral therapy (ART). The method uses the concept that a predictable level of occurrence of AIDS or other HIV-related clinical symptoms which lead to presentation for care, and hence diagnosis of HIV, arises in undiagnosed people with a given CD4 count. The method requires surveillance data on numbers of new HIV diagnoses with HIV-related symptoms, and the CD4 count at diagnosis. The CD4 count-specific rate at which HIV-related symptoms develop are estimated from cohort data. 95% confidence intervals can be constructed using a simple simulation method. For example, if there were 13 HIV diagnoses with HIV-related symptoms made in one year with CD4 count at diagnosis between 150-199 cells/mm3, then since the CD4 count-specific rate of HIV-related symptoms is estimated as 0.216 per person-year, the estimated number of person years lived in people with undiagnosed HIV with CD4 count 150-199 cells/mm3 is 13/0.216 = 60 (95% confidence interval: 29-100), which is considered an estimate of the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV in this CD4 count stratum. The method is straightforward to implement within a short period once a surveillance system of all new HIV diagnoses, collecting data on HIV-related symptoms at diagnosis, is in place and is most suitable for estimating the number of undiagnosed people with CD4 count HIV-related symptoms at higher CD4 counts. A potential source of bias is under-diagnosis and under-reporting of diagnoses with HIV-related symptoms. Although this method has limitations as with all approaches, it is important for prompting increased efforts to identify undiagnosed people, particularly those with low CD4 count, and for informing levels of unmet need for ART.

  9. Mind the Gap! A Multilevel Analysis of Factors Related to Variation in Published Cost-Effectiveness Estimates within and between Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boehler, Christian E H; Lord, Joanne

    2016-01-01

    Published cost-effectiveness estimates can vary considerably, both within and between countries. Despite extensive discussion, little is known empirically about factors relating to these variations. To use multilevel statistical modeling to integrate cost-effectiveness estimates from published economic evaluations to investigate potential causes of variation. Cost-effectiveness studies of statins for cardiovascular disease prevention were identified by systematic review. Estimates of incremental costs and effects were extracted from reported base case, sensitivity, and subgroup analyses, with estimates grouped in studies and in countries. Three bivariate models were developed: a cross-classified model to accommodate data from multinational studies, a hierarchical model with multinational data allocated to a single category at country level, and a hierarchical model excluding multinational data. Covariates at different levels were drawn from a long list of factors suggested in the literature. We found 67 studies reporting 2094 cost-effectiveness estimates relating to 23 countries (6 studies reporting for more than 1 country). Data and study-level covariates included patient characteristics, intervention and comparator cost, and some study methods (e.g., discount rates and time horizon). After adjusting for these factors, the proportion of variation attributable to countries was negligible in the cross-classified model but moderate in the hierarchical models (14%-19% of total variance). Country-level variables that improved the fit of the hierarchical models included measures of income and health care finance, health care resources, and population risks. Our analysis suggested that variability in published cost-effectiveness estimates is related more to differences in study methods than to differences in national context. Multinational studies were associated with much lower country-level variation than single-country studies. These findings are for a single clinical

  10. Comparison of robustness to outliers between robust poisson models and log-binomial models when estimating relative risks for common binary outcomes: a simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wansu; Shi, Jiaxiao; Qian, Lei; Azen, Stanley P

    2014-06-26

    To estimate relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes, the most popular model-based methods are the robust (also known as modified) Poisson and the log-binomial regression. Of the two methods, it is believed that the log-binomial regression yields more efficient estimators because it is maximum likelihood based, while the robust Poisson model may be less affected by outliers. Evidence to support the robustness of robust Poisson models in comparison with log-binomial models is very limited. In this study a simulation was conducted to evaluate the performance of the two methods in several scenarios where outliers existed. The findings indicate that for data coming from a population where the relationship between the outcome and the covariate was in a simple form (e.g. log-linear), the two models yielded comparable biases and mean square errors. However, if the true relationship contained a higher order term, the robust Poisson models consistently outperformed the log-binomial models even when the level of contamination is low. The robust Poisson models are more robust (or less sensitive) to outliers compared to the log-binomial models when estimating relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes. Users should be aware of the limitations when choosing appropriate models to estimate relative risks or risk ratios.

  11. Estimation of Relative Permittivity of Printed Circuit Board with Fiber Glass Epoxy as Dielectric for UHF Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronal D. Montoya-Montoya

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results of measuring relative permittivity of fiber glass printed circuit board (PCB’s, using a rectangular resonant cavity. The relative permittivity is presented as function of frequency. To obtain resonant frequencies, the return loss was measured using a network analyzer. Relative permittivity was calculated by finding frequencies of resonant cavity modes. The results are presented in a frequency span of 1 to 3.5GHz. It was clearly shown the nonlinear behavior of the relative permittivity for the dielectric laminate evaluated, even what happens respect to the frequency of the resonant modes below and above to frequency of 2 GHz.

  12. Wildlife Loss Estimates and Summary of Previous Mitigation Related to Hydroelectric Projects in Montana, Volume Three, Hungry Horse Project.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casey, Daniel

    1984-10-01

    This assessment addresses the impacts to the wildlife populations and wildlife habitats due to the Hungry Horse Dam project on the South Fork of the Flathead River and previous mitigation of theses losses. In order to develop and focus mitigation efforts, it was first necessary to estimate wildlife and wildlife hatitat losses attributable to the construction and operation of the project. The purpose of this report was to document the best available information concerning the degree of impacts to target wildlife species. Indirect benefits to wildlife species not listed will be identified during the development of alternative mitigation measures. Wildlife species incurring positive impacts attributable to the project were identified.

  13. Estimation of environment-related properties of chemicals for design of sustainable processes: Development of group-contribution+ (GC+) models and uncertainty analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hukkerikar, Amol; Kalakul, Sawitree; Sarup, Bent

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this work is to develop group-3 contribution+ (GC+)method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI)) based 15 property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncertainties of estimated...... property values. For this purpose, a systematic methodology for property modeling and uncertainty analysis is used. The methodology includes a parameter estimation step to determine parameters of property models and an uncertainty analysis step to establish statistical information about the quality......, poly functional chemicals, etc.) taken from the database of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and from the database of USEtox is used. For property modeling and uncertainty analysis, the Marrero and Gani GC method and atom connectivity index method have been considered. In total, 22...

  14. Estimating intrapartum-related perinatal mortality rates for booked home births: when the 'best' available data are not good enough.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyte, G; Dodwell, M; Newburn, M; Sandall, J; Macfarlane, A; Bewley, S

    2009-06-01

    To critically appraise a recent study on the safety of home birth (Mori R, Dougherty M, Whittle M. BJOG 2008;115:554) and assess its contribution to the debate about risks and benefits of planned home birth for women at low risk of complications. Critical appraisal of a published paper. England and Wales. Home births from 1994-2003 and all women giving birth in the same time period. Six members of a multidisciplinary group appraised the paper independently. Comments were collated and synthesised. Assessment of: overall methodology; assumptions used in estimating figures; methods used for calculations; conclusions drawn from the results and reliability and consistency of data. Although there were some positive aspects to the study, there were weaknesses in design and an inaccurate estimate of risk. Our evidence suggests that the conclusions drawn did not reflect the results and the methodological weaknesses found in the study rendered both the results and conclusions invalid. On the basis of our critical appraisal, the study does not contribute to the existing evidence about the safety of home birth to inform decision-making or provision of care. The limitations could have been identified by the peer review process and the problems were compounded by an inaccurate press release. Great care needs to be taken by journals to ensure the accuracy of information before dissemination to the scientific community, clinicians and the public. These data should not have been used to inform national guidelines.

  15. Effect of immersion on lung capacities and volumes: implications for the densitometric estimation of relative body fat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Withers, R T; Hamdorf, P A

    1989-01-01

    Immersion of 18 male subjects in water caused a 20.4% (787 ml) increase (P less than 0.05) in the mean inspiratory capacity (IC) whereas there were no changes (P greater than 0.05) in tidal volume (VT) and the frequency of respiration. All the means for the other pulmonary variables decreased (P less than 0.05) by varying amounts: total lung capacity (TLC) = 8.4% (599 ml), vital capacity (VC) = 5.5% (308 ml), functional residual capacity (FRC) = 42.6% (1386 ml), expiratory reserve volume (ERV) = 61.9% (1095 ml) and residual volume (RV) = 19.7% (292 ml). Variation of only the RV in the body density (BD) formula from which the percentage body fat (%BF) is estimated resulted in a significantly (P less than 0.05) lower mean of 15.2% BF for the RV in air (means = 1482 ml) compared with that of 17.1% BF for the RV in water (means = 1190 ml). All but one of the subjects exhibited a smaller RV in water than in air; the six largest differences were equivalent to 2.4-5.1% BF. These results indicate that the net effect of the hydrostatic pressure (decreases RV), pulmonary vascular engorgement (decreases RV) and diminished compliance (increases RV) is to reduce the ventilated RV. It is therefore advisable to measure the RV when the subject is immersed in order to minimize error in the determination of BD and hence the estimation of % BF.

  16. Methods for estimating population coverage of mass distribution programmes: a review of practices in relation to trachoma control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cromwell, Elizabeth A; Ngondi, Jeremiah; McFarland, Deborah; King, Jonathan D; Emerson, Paul M

    2012-10-01

    In the context of trachoma control, population coverage with mass drug administration (MDA) using antibiotics is measured using routine data. Due to the limitations of administrative records as well as the potential for bias from incomplete or incorrect records, a literature review of coverage survey methods applied in neglected tropical disease control programmes and immunisation outreach was conducted to inform the design of coverage surveys for trachoma control. Several methods were identified, including the '30 × 7' survey method for the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI 30×7), other cluster random sampling (CRS) methods, lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS), purposive sampling and routine data. When compared against one another, the EPI and other CRS methods produced similar population coverage estimates, whilst LQAS, purposive sampling and use of administrative data did not generate estimates consistent with CRS. In conclusion, CRS methods present a consistent approach for MDA coverage surveys despite different methods of household selection. They merit use until standard guidelines are available. CRS methods should be used to verify population coverage derived from LQAS, purposive sampling methods and administrative reports. Copyright © 2012 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Estimation of the radiological risk related to the presence of radon 222 in a hydrotherapy centre in Tunisia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labidi, S; Essafi, F; Mahjoubi, H

    2006-01-01

    The 222 Rn concentration in air was measured in a thermal water spa used as a hydrotherapy centre in Tunisia. The associated health risk for employees and patients due to the inhalation of 222 Rn and its progeny was estimated. A protection scheme for the employees of the spas has been designed. Results show that the 222 Rn concentration varies in the range 33-589 Bq m -3 . The 222 Rn concentrations measured in the present study show lower values in comparison to those reported for thermal spas in other countries. The 222 Rn concentration in different rooms of the spa depends mainly on the ventilation rate. A model based on a dosimetric approach was adopted to estimate the radon risk considering the 222 Rn concentration, the time spent in the spa, and the radioactive equilibrium factor F. The annual effective dose was found to vary between 0.2 and 1.7 mSv for workers while the range for patients was from 2.8 x 10 -4 to 1.1 x 10 -4 mSv. These values are within the ICRP recommended values. (note)

  18. Estimation of the radiological risk related to the presence of radon 222 in a hydrotherapy centre in Tunisia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labidi, S [Institut Superieur des Technologies Medicales de Tunis (Tunisia); Essafi, F [Faculte de Medecine de Tunis, Section de Biophysique, Tunis (Tunisia); Mahjoubi, H [Institut Superieur des Technologies Medicales de Tunis (Tunisia)

    2006-09-15

    The {sup 222}Rn concentration in air was measured in a thermal water spa used as a hydrotherapy centre in Tunisia. The associated health risk for employees and patients due to the inhalation of {sup 222}Rn and its progeny was estimated. A protection scheme for the employees of the spas has been designed. Results show that the {sup 222}Rn concentration varies in the range 33-589 Bq m{sup -3}. The {sup 222}Rn concentrations measured in the present study show lower values in comparison to those reported for thermal spas in other countries. The {sup 222}Rn concentration in different rooms of the spa depends mainly on the ventilation rate. A model based on a dosimetric approach was adopted to estimate the radon risk considering the {sup 222}Rn concentration, the time spent in the spa, and the radioactive equilibrium factor F. The annual effective dose was found to vary between 0.2 and 1.7 mSv for workers while the range for patients was from 2.8 x 10{sup -4} to 1.1 x 10{sup -4} mSv. These values are within the ICRP recommended values. (note)

  19. Absolute and estimated values of macular pigment optical density in young and aged Asian participants with or without age-related macular degeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozawa, Yoko; Shigeno, Yuta; Nagai, Norihiro; Suzuki, Misa; Kurihara, Toshihide; Minami, Sakiko; Hirano, Eri; Shinoda, Hajime; Kobayashi, Saori; Tsubota, Kazuo

    2017-08-29

    Lutein and zeaxanthin are suggested micronutrient supplements to prevent the progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), a leading cause of blindness worldwide. To monitor the levels of lutein/zeaxanthin in the macula, macular pigment optical density (MPOD) is measured. A commercially available device (MPSII®, Elektron Technology, Switzerland), using technology based on heterochromatic flicker photometry, can measure both absolute and estimated values of MPOD. However, whether the estimated value is applicable to Asian individuals and/or AMD patients remains to be determined. The absolute and estimated values of MPOD were measured using the MPSII® device in 77 participants with a best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) > 0.099 (logMAR score). The studied eyes included 17 young (20-29 years) healthy, 26 aged (>50 years) healthy, 18 aged and AMD-fellow, and 16 aged AMD eyes. The mean BCVA among the groups were not significantly different. Both absolute and estimated values were measurable in all eyes of young healthy group. However, absolute values were measurable in only 57.7%, 66.7%, and 43.8%, of the aged healthy, AMD-fellow, and AMD groups, respectively, and 56.7% of the eyes included in the 3 aged groups. In contrast, the estimated value was measurable in 84.6%, 88.9% and 93.8% of the groups, respectively, and 88.3% of eyes in the pooled aged group. The estimated value was correlated with absolute value in individuals from all groups by Spearman's correlation coefficient analyses (young healthy: R 2  = 0.885, P = 0.0001; aged healthy: R 2  = 0.765, P = 0.001; AMD-fellow: R 2  = 0.851, P = 0.0001; and AMD: R 2  = 0.860, P = 0.013). Using the estimated value, significantly lower MPOD values were found in aged AMD-related eyes, which included both AMD-fellow and AMD eyes, compared with aged healthy eyes by Student's t-test (P = 0.02). Absolute, in contrast to estimated, value was measurable in a limited number of aged participants

  20. Estimate of the benefits of a population-based reduction in dietary sodium additives on hypertension and its related health care costs in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joffres, Michel R; Campbell, Norm R C; Manns, Braden; Tu, Karen

    2007-05-01

    Hypertension is the leading risk factor for mortality worldwide. One-quarter of the adult Canadian population has hypertension, and more than 90% of the population is estimated to develop hypertension if they live an average lifespan. Reductions in dietary sodium additives significantly lower systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and population reductions in dietary sodium are recommended by major scientific and public health organizations. To estimate the reduction in hypertension prevalence and specific hypertension management cost savings associated with a population-wide reduction in dietary sodium additives. Based on data from clinical trials, reducing dietary sodium additives by 1840 mg/day would result in a decrease of 5.06 mmHg (systolic) and 2.7 mmHg (diastolic) blood pressures. Using Canadian Heart Health Survey data, the resulting reduction in hypertension was estimated. Costs of laboratory testing and physician visits were based on 2001 to 2003 Ontario Health Insurance Plan data, and the number of physician visits and costs of medications for patients with hypertension were taken from 2003 IMS Canada. To estimate the reduction in total physician visits and laboratory costs, current estimates of aware hypertensive patients in Canada were used from the Canadian Community Health Survey. Reducing dietary sodium additives may decrease hypertension prevalence by 30%, resulting in one million fewer hypertensive patients in Canada, and almost double the treatment and control rate. Direct cost savings related to fewer physician visits, laboratory tests and lower medication use are estimated to be approximately $430 million per year. Physician visits and laboratory costs would decrease by 6.5%, and 23% fewer treated hypertensive patients would require medications for control of blood pressure. Based on these estimates, lowering dietary sodium additives would lead to a large reduction in hypertension prevalence and result in health care cost savings in Canada.

  1. Estimating the relative contributions of maternal genetic, paternal genetic and intrauterine factors to offspring birth weight and head circumference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Frances; Thapar, Anita

    2010-07-01

    Genetic factors and the prenatal environment contribute to birth weight. However, very few types of study design can disentangle their relative contribution. To examine maternal genetic and intrauterine contributions to offspring birth weight and head circumference. To compare the contribution of maternal and paternal genetic effects. Mothers and fathers were either genetically related or unrelated to their offspring who had been conceived by in vitro fertilization. 423 singleton full term offspring, of whom 262 were conceived via homologous IVF (both parents related), 66 via sperm donation (mother only related) and 95 via egg donation (father only related). Maternal weight at antenatal booking, current weight and maternal height. Paternal current weight and height were all predictors. Infant birth weight and head circumference were outcomes. Genetic relatedness was the main contributing factor between measures of parental weight and offspring birth weight as correlations were only significant when the parent was related to the child. However, there was a contribution of the intrauterine environment to the association between maternal height and both infant birth weight and infant head circumference as these were significant even when mothers were unrelated to their child. Both maternal and paternal genes made contributions to infant birth weight. Maternal height appeared to index a contribution of the intrauterine environment to infant growth and gestational age. Results suggested a possible biological interaction between the intrauterine environment and maternal inherited characteristics which suppresses the influence of paternal genes. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topp, Cairistiona F. E.; Moorby, Jon M.; Pásztor, László; Foyer, Christine H.

    2018-01-01

    Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (cow), the ‘hottest’ 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today’s average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years. PMID:29738581

  3. Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nándor Fodor

    Full Text Available Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow, the 'hottest' 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today's average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.

  4. Constrained Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Relative Abundances of Protein Conformation in a Heterogeneous Mixture from Small Angle X-Ray Scattering Intensity Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onuk, A. Emre; Akcakaya, Murat; Bardhan, Jaydeep P.; Erdogmus, Deniz; Brooks, Dana H.; Makowski, Lee

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we describe a model for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the relative abundances of different conformations of a protein in a heterogeneous mixture from small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) intensities. To consider cases where the solution includes intermediate or unknown conformations, we develop a subset selection method based on k-means clustering and the Cramér-Rao bound on the mixture coefficient estimation error to find a sparse basis set that represents the space spanned by the measured SAXS intensities of the known conformations of a protein. Then, using the selected basis set and the assumptions on the model for the intensity measurements, we show that the MLE model can be expressed as a constrained convex optimization problem. Employing the adenylate kinase (ADK) protein and its known conformations as an example, and using Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation scheme. Here, although we use 45 crystallographically determined experimental structures and we could generate many more using, for instance, molecular dynamics calculations, the clustering technique indicates that the data cannot support the determination of relative abundances for more than 5 conformations. The estimation of this maximum number of conformations is intrinsic to the methodology we have used here. PMID:26924916

  5. Radiotherapy in Sweden. A study of present use in relation to the literature and an estimate of future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Froedin, J.E.; Moeller, T.

    1996-01-01

    This report addresses the role of radiotherapy for treating solid tumors. It is based on a systematic and critical review of the scientific literature, covering close to 1 700 published studies, involving more than 700 000 patients. The report also compares current practice in radiotherapy with scientific evidence and estimates the cost of radiotherapy. The review of the literature shows there is a fairly solid basis for conclusions about appropriate practices in radiotherapy. There are about 650 studies available which are judged to be of high scientific quality, covering more than half a million patients. This article is a summary of the complete report, which appears as Supplement 6 and 7 of this issue. A third volume, 'Critical Issues in Radiotherapy' is available at SBU. (orig.)

  6. A fast and simple method to estimate relative, hyphal tensile-strength of filamentous fungi used to assess the effect of autophagy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quintanilla, Daniela; Chelius, Cynthia; Iambamrung, Sirasa

    2018-01-01

    Fungal hyphal strength is an important phenotype which can have a profound impact on bioprocess behavior. Until now, there is not an efficient method which allows its characterization. Currently available methods are very time consuming; thus, compromising their applicability in strain selection...... and process development. To overcome this issue, a method for fast and easy, statistically-verified quantification of relative hyphal tensile strength was developed. It involves off-line fragmentation in a high shear mixer followed by quantification of fragment size using laser diffraction. Particle size...... distribution (PSD) is determined, with analysis time on the order of minutes. Plots of PSD 90th percentile versus time allow estimation of the specific fragmentation rate. This novel method is demonstrated by estimating relative hyphal strength during growth in control conditions and rapamycin...

  7. Model linear absolute and relative risk estimates for cancer induced by ionizing radiation in Mexican cohort of occupationally exposed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez, R.J.T.; Trovar, M.V.M; González, J.F.

    2015-01-01

    From the rate of natural mortality m s cancer (t) for every 100 thousand habitants, modeled by a fourth-degree polynomial function of the age data of the Mexican population (2008), and assuming: a) a relationship 1: 5 of cancer induced radiation respect to presented spontaneously, b) a size of initial cohort No = 100 k SOPs, c) a speed of H E = (2 ± 1) mSv / received by the SOPs from 18 to 65 years, d) a latency of 8 years for cancer induction after irradiation, e) a time tracking cohort to 75 years, f) and taking the coefficients absolute and relative risk BEIRs induction of cancer models II and VII (excluding leukemia); It determined: BEIR II for a total of 125 and 400 deaths from cancer for absolute and relative linear models respectively. For BEIR VII has a number of fatal cases of 345 and 927 deaths respectively for absolute and relative linear model cancer. [es

  8. Gas-liquid Relative Permeability Estimation in 2D Porous Media by Lattice Boltzmann Method: Low Viscosity Ratio 2D LBM Relative Permeability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadegh Mahmoudi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This work is a primary achievement in studying the CO2 and N2–oil systems. To predict gas-liquid relative permeability curves, a Shan-Chen type multicomponent multiphase lattice Boltzmann model for two-phase flow through 2D porous media is developed. Periodic and bounce back boundary conditions are applied to the model with the Guo scheme for the external body force (i.e., the pressure gradient. The influence of relationship between cohesion and adsorption parameters and the interfacial tension values in Young's equation, pore structure (micro scan image derived porous media response is compared with corresponding porosity and permeability ideal sphere pack structure, and saturation distribution on relative permeability curves are studied with the aim to achieve the realistic stable condition for the simulation of gas-liquid systems with a low viscosity ratio.

  9. Model Related Estimates of time dependent quantiles of peak flows - case study for selected catchments in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strupczewski, Witold G.; Bogdanowich, Ewa; Debele, Sisay

    2016-04-01

    Under Polish climate conditions the series of Annual Maxima (AM) flows are usually a mixture of peak flows of thaw- and rainfall- originated floods. The northern, lowland regions are dominated by snowmelt floods whilst in mountainous regions the proportion of rainfall floods is predominant. In many stations the majority of AM can be of snowmelt origin, but the greatest peak flows come from rainfall floods or vice versa. In a warming climate, precipitation is less likely to occur as snowfall. A shift from a snow- towards a rain-dominated regime results in a decreasing trend in mean and standard deviations of winter peak flows whilst rainfall floods do not exhibit any trace of non-stationarity. That is why a simple form of trends (i.e. linear trends) are more difficult to identify in AM time-series than in Seasonal Maxima (SM), usually winter season time-series. Hence it is recommended to analyse trends in SM, where a trend in standard deviation strongly influences the time -dependent upper quantiles. The uncertainty associated with the extrapolation of the trend makes it necessary to apply a relationship for trend which has time derivative tending to zero, e.g. we can assume a new climate equilibrium epoch approaching, or a time horizon is limited by the validity of the trend model. For both winter and summer SM time series, at least three distributions functions with trend model in the location, scale and shape parameters are estimated by means of the GAMLSS package using the ML-techniques. The resulting trend estimates in mean and standard deviation are mutually compared to the observed trends. Then, using AIC measures as weights, a multi-model distribution is constructed for each of two seasons separately. Further, assuming a mutual independence of the seasonal maxima, an AM model with time-dependent parameters can be obtained. The use of a multi-model approach can alleviate the effects of different and often contradictory trends obtained by using and identifying

  10. Cardiovascular fitness moderates the relations between estimates of obesity and physical self-perceptions in rural elementary school students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Nathanael G; Moore, Justin B; Bibeau, Wendy S; Rudasill, Kathleen M

    2012-02-01

    Levels of physical activity decline throughout childhood. Children's physical self-perceptions have been found to relate to their physical activity. Understanding the relationships among physical self-perceptions, obesity, and physical activity could have important implications for interventions in children. The current study investigated the moderating effect of cardiovascular fitness (CVF, heart rate recovery from a 3-minute step test) on the relationship between obesity (BMI, waist circumference) and physical self-perceptions (athletic competence, physical appearance) in 104 fourth- and fifth-grade children from a small rural community. Hierarchical regression analyses indicated that CVF moderated the relations between BMI and waist circumference on athletic competence. For children with lower fitness, higher waist circumference was associated with lower athletic competence, while for children with higher fitness levels, higher BMI was associated with higher athletic competence. Results also indicated that both BMI and waist circumference were negatively related to physical appearance. CVF moderated these relations such that only children with lower fitness, greater BMI and waist circumference was associated with poorer physical appearance scores. Implications include the need for support of fitness programs to promote psychological well-being and to investigate the relationship between obesity and physical self-perceptions within the context of fitness.

  11. Event-Related fMRI Studies of Episodic Encoding and Retrieval: Meta-Analyses Using Activation Likelihood Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spaniol, Julia; Davidson, Patrick S. R.; Kim, Alice S. N.; Han, Hua; Moscovitch, Morris; Grady, Cheryl L.

    2009-01-01

    The recent surge in event-related fMRI studies of episodic memory has generated a wealth of information about the neural correlates of encoding and retrieval processes. However, interpretation of individual studies is hampered by methodological differences, and by the fact that sample sizes are typically small. We submitted results from studies of…

  12. Simultaneous estimation of Ofloxacin and Cefixime in tablet form in presence of the inactive Ofloxacin USP Related compound A

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lobna A. Hussein

    2017-06-01

    The suggested method was validated in compliance with the ICH guidelines and was successfully applied for the quantification of Ofloxacin, Cefixime and Ofloxacin Related compound A in their commercial tablets. The method was also statistically compared to reference methods with no significant differences in performance.

  13. Estimation of performance shaping factors for overtime and shift length using expert judgment based on related assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vickroy, S.C.

    1986-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a study to estimate human performance and error rate under several amounts of overtime and different shifts without the use of human subjects. Ten chronobiology, fatigue, and shift scheduling experts were administered a questionnaire to rate the effects that several shifts and overtime amounts might have on the performance of individuals working under their constraints. The data from the ratings were transformed to generate performance shaping factors used for sensitivity analyses on three previously published probabilistic risk assessments. This procedure was performed to determine the effect that different shift schedules and amounts of overtime would have on overall plant performance. The results of the analysis suggest that the risk due to human errors caused by the shift scheduling and overtime could increase the risk of accidents at a nuclear power plant caused by humans by up to a factor of five. This could increase the chance for an accident at a nuclear power plant by a factor of about three

  14. The Omega-3 Index and relative risk for coronary heart disease mortality: Estimation from 10 cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, William S; Del Gobbo, Liana; Tintle, Nathan L

    2017-07-01

    A recent 19-cohort meta-analysis examined the relationships between biomarkers of omega-3 fatty acids and risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). That study did not, however, report hazard ratios (HRs) specifically as a function of erythrocyte eicosapentaenoic (EPA) plus docosahexaenoic (DHA) levels, a metric called the Omega-3 Index in which EPA + DHA content is expressed as a percent of total fatty acids. The Omega-3 Index has been used in several recent studies and is a validated biomarker of omega-3 fatty acid tissue levels, but additional data are needed to confirm (or refute) the originally-proposed clinical cut-points of Omega-3 Index and median quintile values for this metric across 10 of the cohorts for which the needed data were available. The overall mean (SD) for the Omega-3 Index in these 10 cohort studies was 6.1% (2.1%), and the HR for a 1-SD increase was 0.85 (95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.91). Median quintile 1 and 5 levels were 4.2% vs. 8.3%, respectively. Based on these values, we estimate that risk for fatal CHD would have been reduced by about 30% moving from an Omega-3 Index of 4%-8%. These findings support the use of 8% as reasonable therapeutic targets for the Omega-3 Index. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. An estimation of traffic related CO2 emissions from motor vehicles in the capital city of, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kakouei Aliakbar

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Vehicle exhaust is a major source of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2 in metropolitan cities. Popular community mode (buses and taxies and about 2.4 million private cars are the main emission sources of air pollution in Tehran. A case survey has conducted to measure CO2 in four popular vehicles, bus, taxi, private car and motorcycle, which moved in the city with respectively 7800, 82358, 560000 and 2.4 million per day in 2012. Results indicated that the contribution of CO2 emissions increased in the following order: private car, motorcycle, bus and taxi. The overall average for the contribution of CO2 emissions in the private car, motorcycle, bus, and taxi were 26372, 1648, 1433 and 374 tons per day, respectively. Our results also showed that the urban transport operation consume an estimated 178 and 4224 million liter diesel and petrol per year, respectively, that have released about 10 million tons of CO2. The average contribution of CO2 emissions of private cars in Tehran was higher (88% than other vehicles. It was concluded that high volume of traffic, transport consumption of fossil fuels and shortage of adequate public transport system are responsible for the high CO2 level in environment in Tehran. Thus, it is to be expected that CO2 as a greenhouse gas has risen in Tehran more than ever in the following years and this would be a matter of concern for the authorities to have a comprehensive plan to mitigate this phenomena.

  16. Refractive indices of human skin tissues at eight wavelengths and estimated dispersion relations between 300 and 1600 nm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Huafeng; Lu, Jun Q; Wooden, William A; Kragel, Peter J; Hu Xinhua

    2006-01-01

    The refractive index of human skin tissues is an important parameter in characterizing the optical response of the skin. We extended a previously developed method of coherent reflectance curve measurement to determine the in vitro values of the complex refractive indices of epidermal and dermal tissues from fresh human skin samples at eight wavelengths between 325 and 1557 nm. Based on these results, dispersion relations of the real refractive index have been obtained and compared in the same spectral region

  17. Using Population Based Data on Drugs Abuse to Estimate the Relative Need for Medical Services in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leyatikul, Poonrut; Kanato, Manop

    2015-07-01

    Epidemiological background shows a trend in drug abuse and essential need for revising its strategic plans, allocating resources, and advocating services for populations. The relative need for drug abuse prevention and medical services across different geographic areas of Thailand, which has been examined through an analysis of existing population-based datasets and reported routinely. The objective was to develop an indicator of relative need for drug abuse prevention and medical services. Qualitative data were collected as primary data sources from 10 focus group discussions throughout Thailand. The primary data were integrated into study framework with the result from literature review. Data sets in 2011 were retrieved from the national databank to obtain variables regarding drug abuse. Multiple regression and factor analysis were undertaken using the district as the unit of analysis. A factor analysis, which revealed six factors that explained 64% of the variance in the data set. Factors identified in the analysis were taken as indicators of variation in the need for services as all of the drugs-related variables loaded strongly on these factors. The distribution of ranks for factor scores (determined through regression) obtained for these factors across districts in Thailand showed that scores were highest in urban and suburban areas. In terms of practical implications, the study results could be used for resource allocation in medical service plans for community drug abuse.

  18. Estimation of glomerular filtration rate in cancer patients with abnormal body composition and relation with carboplatin toxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bretagne, M; Jouinot, A; Durand, J P; Huillard, O; Boudou Rouquette, P; Tlemsani, C; Arrondeau, J; Sarfati, G; Goldwasser, F; Alexandre, J

    2017-07-01

    Carboplatin clearance is correlated with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and usually estimated with creatinine clearance using Cockcroft-Gault (CG) formula. Because plasma creatinine level is highly correlated with muscle mass, we hypothesized that an abnormal body composition with a low lean body mass (LBM) percentage [(LBM/weight) × 100] may result in inadequate carboplatin dosing. Serum cystatin C is an alternative marker of GFR, not affected by muscle mass. We aimed to investigate the influence of total LBM and LBM percentage on GFR calculation, using creatinine (CrCl) or cystatin C (GFR cysC-creat ) in cancer patients. Pretreatment serum creatinine and cystatin C were prospectively measured in consecutive patients. CrCl (CG formula), GFR cysC-creat (CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin equation), and LBM (CT scan) were calculated. Severe thrombocytopenia post-carboplatin were analyzed. In 131 patients without renal insufficiency, LBM was correlated with creatinine (r = 0.30, p LBM percentage, the CrCl was significantly higher than GFR cysC-creat indicating an overestimation of GFR with creatinine (p = 0.0004). In 24 patients treated with carboplatin AUC 5 (mg/ml min) ± paclitaxel, the risk of severe thrombocytopenia was associated with lower LBM percentage (p = 0.0002) and higher CrCl/GFR cysC-creat ratio (p = 0.006). By ROC analysis, the CrCl/GFR cysC-creat ratio threshold predicting severe thrombocytopenia was 1.23. A low LBM percentage increases the risk of inadequate GFR calculation by CG formula, and carboplatin overdosage with severe thrombocytopenia. High CrCl/GFR cysC-creat ratio allows the identification of these patients.

  19. Relation Between Estimated Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Atrial Fibrillation (from the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke Study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bose, Abhishek; O'Neal, Wesley T; Bennett, Aleena; Judd, Suzanne E; Qureshi, Waqas T; Sui, Xuemei; Howard, Virginia J; Howard, George; Soliman, Elsayed Z

    2017-06-01

    Estimated cardiorespiratory fitness (e-CRF) based on readily available clinical and self-reported data is a promising alternative to the costly traditional assessment of CRF using exercise equipment, but its role as a predictor for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is unclear. This study included 10,126 participants (54.5% women, 35% African-American, mean age 63.2 years) from the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study who were free of AF at baseline. Baseline (2003 to 2007) e-CRF was determined using a previously validated nonexercise algorithm. Incident AF cases were identified at a follow-up examination by electrocardiogram and self-reported medical history of previous physician diagnosis. After a median follow-up of 9.4 years, 906 participants (8.9%) developed AF. In a multivariable logistic regression model adjusted for sociodemographics and baseline cardiovascular disease risk factors as well as incident coronary heart disease, heart failure, and stroke, each 1-metabolic equivalent of task increase in e-CRF was associated with a 5% lower risk of AF development (odds ratio [95% CI] 0.95 [0.92 to 0.99]; p = 0.0129). This association was stronger in women (OR [95% CI] 0.85 (0.79, 0.92) than in men (OR (95% CI) 0.88 (0.84, 0.93), interaction p value = 0.05. No significant interactions by age, race, history of cardiovascular disease, or physical limitations were observed. In conclusion, e-CRF using a nonexercise algorithm is a useful predictor of incident AF, which is consistent with previous reports using traditional CRF. This suggests that e-CRF using nonexercise algorithms may serve as a useful alternative to CRF measured by costly and time-consuming exercise testing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Event-related fMRI studies of false memory: An Activation Likelihood Estimation meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurkela, Kyle A; Dennis, Nancy A

    2016-01-29

    Over the last two decades, a wealth of research in the domain of episodic memory has focused on understanding the neural correlates mediating false memories, or memories for events that never happened. While several recent qualitative reviews have attempted to synthesize this literature, methodological differences amongst the empirical studies and a focus on only a sub-set of the findings has limited broader conclusions regarding the neural mechanisms underlying false memories. The current study performed a voxel-wise quantitative meta-analysis using activation likelihood estimation to investigate commonalities within the functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) literature studying false memory. The results were broken down by memory phase (encoding, retrieval), as well as sub-analyses looking at differences in baseline (hit, correct rejection), memoranda (verbal, semantic), and experimental paradigm (e.g., semantic relatedness and perceptual relatedness) within retrieval. Concordance maps identified significant overlap across studies for each analysis. Several regions were identified in the general false retrieval analysis as well as multiple sub-analyses, indicating their ubiquitous, yet critical role in false retrieval (medial superior frontal gyrus, left precentral gyrus, left inferior parietal cortex). Additionally, several regions showed baseline- and paradigm-specific effects (hit/perceptual relatedness: inferior and middle occipital gyrus; CRs: bilateral inferior parietal cortex, precuneus, left caudate). With respect to encoding, analyses showed common activity in the left middle temporal gyrus and anterior cingulate cortex. No analysis identified a common cluster of activation in the medial temporal lobe. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie H; Gibb, Herman J; Torgerson, Paul R; Kirk, Martyn D; Angulo, Fred J; Lake, Robin J; Speybroeck, Niko; Hoffmann, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food. We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke's Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific 'seed' questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke's Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the 'target' questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts providing estimates for one or more subregions

  2. World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tine Hald

    Full Text Available The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs. This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food.We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke's Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead. Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific 'seed' questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke's Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the 'target' questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts providing estimates for one or more

  3. Estimating the Effect and Economic Impact of Absenteeism, Presenteeism, and Work Environment-Related Problems on Reductions in Productivity from a Managerial Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strömberg, Carl; Aboagye, Emmanuel; Hagberg, Jan; Bergström, Gunnar; Lohela-Karlsson, Malin

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was to propose wage multipliers that can be used to estimate the costs of productivity loss for employers in economic evaluations, using detailed information from managers. Data were collected in a survey panel of 758 managers from different sectors of the labor market. Based on assumed scenarios of a period of absenteeism due to sickness, presenteeism and work environment-related problem episodes, and specified job characteristics (i.e., explanatory variables), managers assessed their impact on group productivity and cost (i.e., the dependent variable). In an ordered probit model, the extent of productivity loss resulting from job characteristics is predicted. The predicted values are used to derive wage multipliers based on the cost of productivity estimates provided by the managers. The results indicate that job characteristics (i.e., degree of time sensitivity of output, teamwork, or difficulty in replacing a worker) are linked to productivity loss as a result of health-related and work environment-related problems. The impact of impaired performance on productivity differs among various occupations. The mean wage multiplier is 1.97 for absenteeism, 1.70 for acute presenteeism, 1.54 for chronic presenteeism, and 1.72 for problems related to the work environment. This implies that the costs of health-related and work environment-related problems to organizations can exceed the worker's wage. The use of wage multipliers is recommended for calculating the cost of health-related and work environment-related productivity loss to properly account for actual costs. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Comparison of Two Methods for Estimating the Sampling-Related Uncertainty of Satellite Rainfall Averages Based on a Large Radar Data Set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor); Bell, Thomas L.; Steiner, Matthias; Zhang, Yu; Wood, Eric F.

    2002-01-01

    The uncertainty of rainfall estimated from averages of discrete samples collected by a satellite is assessed using a multi-year radar data set covering a large portion of the United States. The sampling-related uncertainty of rainfall estimates is evaluated for all combinations of 100 km, 200 km, and 500 km space domains, 1 day, 5 day, and 30 day rainfall accumulations, and regular sampling time intervals of 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 8 h, and 12 h. These extensive analyses are combined to characterize the sampling uncertainty as a function of space and time domain, sampling frequency, and rainfall characteristics by means of a simple scaling law. Moreover, it is shown that both parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques of estimating the sampling uncertainty produce comparable results. Sampling uncertainty estimates, however, do depend on the choice of technique for obtaining them. They can also vary considerably from case to case, reflecting the great variability of natural rainfall, and should therefore be expressed in probabilistic terms. Rainfall calibration errors are shown to affect comparison of results obtained by studies based on data from different climate regions and/or observation platforms.

  5. A method for estimating maternal and newborn lives saved from health-related investments funded by the UK government Department for International Development using the Lives Saved Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingrid K. Friberg

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In 2010, the UK Government Department for International Development (DFID committed through its 'Framework for results for reproductive, maternal and newborn health (RMNH' to save 50,000 maternal lives and 250,000 newborn lives by 2015. They also committed to monitoring the performance of this portfolio of investments to demonstrate transparency and accountability. Methods currently available to directly measure lives saved are cost-, time-, and labour-intensive. The gold standard for calculating the total number of lives saved would require measuring mortality with large scale population based surveys or annual vital events surveillance. Neither is currently available in all low- and middle-income countries. Estimating the independent effect of DFID support relative to all other effects on health would also be challenging. Methods The Lives Saved Tool (LiST is an evidence based software for modelling the effect of changes in health intervention coverage on reproductive, maternal, newborn and child mortality. A multi-country LiST-based analysis protocol was developed to retrospectively assess the total annual number of maternal and newborn lives saved from DFID aid programming in low- and middle-income countries. Results Annual LiST analyses using the latest program data from DFID country offices were conducted between 2013 and 2016, estimating the annual number of maternal and neonatal lives saved across 2010–2015. For each country, independent project results were aggregated into health intervention coverage estimates, with and in the absence of DFID funding. More than 80% of reported projects were suitable for inclusion in the analysis, with 151 projects analysed in the 2016 analysis. Between 2010 and 2014, it is estimated that DFID contributed to saving the lives of 15,000 women in pregnancy and childbirth with health programming and 88,000 with family planning programming. It is estimated that DFID health programming

  6. A method for estimating maternal and newborn lives saved from health-related investments funded by the UK government Department for International Development using the Lives Saved Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friberg, Ingrid K; Baschieri, Angela; Abbotts, Jo

    2017-11-07

    In 2010, the UK Government Department for International Development (DFID) committed through its 'Framework for results for reproductive, maternal and newborn health (RMNH)' to save 50,000 maternal lives and 250,000 newborn lives by 2015. They also committed to monitoring the performance of this portfolio of investments to demonstrate transparency and accountability. Methods currently available to directly measure lives saved are cost-, time-, and labour-intensive. The gold standard for calculating the total number of lives saved would require measuring mortality with large scale population based surveys or annual vital events surveillance. Neither is currently available in all low- and middle-income countries. Estimating the independent effect of DFID support relative to all other effects on health would also be challenging. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is an evidence based software for modelling the effect of changes in health intervention coverage on reproductive, maternal, newborn and child mortality. A multi-country LiST-based analysis protocol was developed to retrospectively assess the total annual number of maternal and newborn lives saved from DFID aid programming in low- and middle-income countries. Annual LiST analyses using the latest program data from DFID country offices were conducted between 2013 and 2016, estimating the annual number of maternal and neonatal lives saved across 2010-2015. For each country, independent project results were aggregated into health intervention coverage estimates, with and in the absence of DFID funding. More than 80% of reported projects were suitable for inclusion in the analysis, with 151 projects analysed in the 2016 analysis. Between 2010 and 2014, it is estimated that DFID contributed to saving the lives of 15,000 women in pregnancy and childbirth with health programming and 88,000 with family planning programming. It is estimated that DFID health programming contributed to saving 187,000 newborn lives. It is

  7. ESTIMATES OF CURRENT AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF LABOUR FORCE AND MIGRATION RELATIONS OF RUSSIAN ARCTIC’S REGIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. G. Korovkin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the use of balance of labour resources and population and labour resources movements balance for the assessment of the current and future state of regional labor markets and migration linkages in the regions of the Russian Arctic. The purpose of this article is to obtain projections of the dynamics of the main indicators of balance of labour resources, structure and dynamics of population and labor resources of the Russian Arctic regions. The study was performed in the methodology of balance of labour resources and population and labour resources movements balance. The model of population and labor resources movement, taking into account the repeated displacement of people is used. With account of the historical period we forecast the main parameters of population movements structure. The results of calculations on the example for the regions of the Asian and European parts of the Russian Arctic is given. The main problems of the Arctic regions labor resources are identifi ed. The resulting estimates of prospective changes in the structure of balance of labour resources, the most signifi cant sources of additional labor resources, changes to the importance of these sources. The article considers the trends of inter-regional movement of population and labor resources. The analysis of the main areas of origin and regions of arrival is made. The main donor regions and the recipient regions for regions of the Russian Arctic are named. The analysis of structural imbalances on the regional labour markets is made. The contribution the Arctic regions in the magnitude of structural unemployment is measured. Its shown, which regions can be conventionally considered labor-surplus and-defi cient. The results of the study can be used in the development of regional employment programmes, the development and implementation of migration policy, the development of the forecast of labour resources balance sheet, and especially

  8. Performance of neutron scattering relative to Diviner2000 for estimating soil water content in salt affected soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Ain, F.; Attar, J.; Hussein, F.

    2007-05-01

    A field experiment was conducted on sandy clay and clayey soils at Deir Ezzor to compare the performance of Neutron Scattering (NS) relative to a capacitance probe (CP), Diviner2000, in our local conditions under saline soils. The effect of soil electrical conductivity (ECe) and bulk density (?b) on the precession, accuracy and sensitivity of the tested equipment s were evaluated. Also, the ability to improve the calibration equation for these equipment s, by including ECe and ?b as independent variables in the equation formula, was studied. The study showed that, Diviner2000 was very sensitive to soil bulk density and electrical conductivity of the soil (i.e. soil salinity) compared to the NS. Multiple non-linear regressions improved the fitting when both parameters (?b and ECe) were included in the equation, even though the correlation coefficient (R2) remained low in the case of Diviner2000.(author)

  9. Estimating the Influence of Accident Related Factors on Motorcycle Fatal Accidents using Logistic Regression (Case Study: Denpasar-Bali

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wedagama D.M.P.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In Denpasar the capital of Bali Province, motorcycle accident contributes to about 80% of total road accidents. Out of those motorcycle accidents, 32% are fatal accidents. This study investigates the influence of accident related factors on motorcycle fatal accidents in the city of Denpasar during period 2006-2008 using a logistic regression model. The study found that the fatality of collision with pedestrians and right angle accidents were respectively about 0.44 and 0.40 times lower than collision with other vehicles and accidents due to other factors. In contrast, the odds that a motorcycle accident will be fatal due to collision with heavy and light vehicles were 1.67 times more likely than with other motorcycles. Collision with pedestrians, right angle accidents, and heavy and light vehicles were respectively accounted for 31%, 29%, and 63% of motorcycle fatal accidents.

  10. Empirical model for estimating dengue incidence using temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity: a 19-year retrospective analysis in East Delhi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, Vishnampettai G; Roy, Priyamvada; Das, Shukla; Mogha, Narendra Singh; Bansal, Ajay Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Aedes mosquitoes are responsible for transmitting the dengue virus. The mosquito lifecycle is known to be influenced by temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. This retrospective study was planned to investigate whether climatic factors could be used to predict the occurrence of dengue in East Delhi. The number of monthly dengue cases reported over 19 years was obtained from the laboratory records of our institution. Monthly data of rainfall, temperature, and humidity collected from a local weather station were correlated with the number of monthly reported dengue cases. One-way analysis of variance was used to analyse whether the climatic parameters differed significantly among seasons. Four models were developed using negative binomial generalized linear model analysis. Monthly rainfall, temperature, humidity, were used as independent variables, and the number of dengue cases reported monthly was used as the dependent variable. The first model considered data from the same month, while the other three models involved incorporating data with a lag phase of 1, 2, and 3 months, respectively. The greatest number of cases was reported during the post-monsoon period each year. Temperature, rainfall, and humidity varied significantly across the pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon periods. The best correlation between these three climatic factors and dengue occurrence was at a time lag of 2 months. This study found that temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity significantly affected dengue occurrence in East Delhi. This weather-based dengue empirical model can forecast potential outbreaks 2-month in advance, providing an early warning system for intensifying dengue control measures.

  11. Estimating risks and relative risks in case-base studies under the assumptions of gene-environment independence and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Tsz-Ting Chui

    Full Text Available Many diseases result from the interactions between genes and the environment. An efficient method has been proposed for a case-control study to estimate the genetic and environmental main effects and their interactions, which exploits the assumptions of gene-environment independence and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. To estimate the absolute and relative risks, one needs to resort to an alternative design: the case-base study. In this paper, the authors show how to analyze a case-base study under the above dual assumptions. This approach is based on a conditional logistic regression of case-counterfactual controls matched data. It can be easily fitted with readily available statistical packages. When the dual assumptions are met, the method is approximately unbiased and has adequate coverage probabilities for confidence intervals. It also results in smaller variances and shorter confidence intervals as compared with a previous method for a case-base study which imposes neither assumption.

  12. Estimating Risks and Relative Risks in Case-Base Studies under the Assumptions of Gene-Environment Independence and Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chui, Tina Tsz-Ting; Lee, Wen-Chung

    2014-01-01

    Many diseases result from the interactions between genes and the environment. An efficient method has been proposed for a case-control study to estimate the genetic and environmental main effects and their interactions, which exploits the assumptions of gene-environment independence and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. To estimate the absolute and relative risks, one needs to resort to an alternative design: the case-base study. In this paper, the authors show how to analyze a case-base study under the above dual assumptions. This approach is based on a conditional logistic regression of case-counterfactual controls matched data. It can be easily fitted with readily available statistical packages. When the dual assumptions are met, the method is approximately unbiased and has adequate coverage probabilities for confidence intervals. It also results in smaller variances and shorter confidence intervals as compared with a previous method for a case-base study which imposes neither assumption. PMID:25137392

  13. Estimating alcohol-related premature mortality in san francisco: use of population-attributable fractions from the global burden of disease study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reiter Randy B

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In recent years, national and global mortality data have been characterized in terms of well-established risk factors. In this regard, alcohol consumption has been called the third leading "actual cause of death" (modifiable behavioral risk factor in the United States, after tobacco use and the combination of poor diet and physical inactivity. Globally and in various regions of the world, alcohol use has been established as a leading contributor to the overall burden of disease and as a major determinant of health disparities, but, to our knowledge, no one has characterized alcohol-related harm in such broad terms at the local level. We asked how alcohol-related premature mortality in San Francisco, measured in years of life lost (YLLs, compares with other well-known causes of premature mortality, such as ischemic heart disease or HIV/AIDS. Methods We applied sex- and cause-specific population-attributable fractions (PAFs of years of life lost (YLLs from the Global Burden of Disease Study to 17 comparable outcomes among San Francisco males and females during 2004-2007. We did this in three ways: Method 1 assumed that all San Franciscans drink like populations in developed economies. These estimates were limited to alcohol-related harm. Method 2 modified these estimates by including several beneficial effects. Method 3 assumed that Latino and Asian San Franciscans drink alcohol like populations in the global regions related to their ethnicity. Results By any of these three methods, alcohol-related premature mortality accounts for roughly a tenth of all YLLs among males. Alcohol-related YLLs among males are comparable to YLLs for leading causes such as ischemic heart disease and HIV/AIDS, in some instances exceeding them. Latino and black males bear a disproportionate burden of harm. Among females, for whom estimates differed more by method and were smaller than those for males, alcohol-related YLLs are comparable to leading

  14. Archeointensity study on baked clay samples taken from the reconstructed ancient kiln: implication for validity of the Tsunakawa-Shaw paleointensity method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Yuhji; Torii, Masayuki; Natsuhara, Nobuyoshi

    2015-05-01

    In 1972, a reconstruction experiment of a kiln had been done to reproduce an excavated kiln of the seventh century in Japan. Baked clay samples were taken from the floor surface and -20 cm level, and they have been stored after determinations of the paleomagnetic directions by partial alternating field demagnetizations. We recently applied the Tsunakawa-Shaw method to the samples to assess how reliable archeointensity results are obtained from the samples. A suite of the rock magnetic experiments and the scanning electron microscope observations elucidate that dominant magnetic carriers of the floor surface samples are Ti-poor titanomagnetite grains in approximately 10 nm size with single-domain and/or super-paramagnetic states, whereas contributions of multi-domain grains seem to be relatively large for the -20-cm level samples. From the floor surface samples, six out of the eight successful results were obtained and they give an average of 47.3 μT with a standard deviation of 2.2 μT. This is fairly consistent with the in situ geomagnetic field of 46.4 μT at the time of the reconstruction. They are obtained with a built-in anisotropy correction using anhysteretic remanent magnetization and without any cooling rate corrections. In contrast, only one out of four was successful from the -20-cm level samples. It yields an archeointensity of 31.6 μT, which is inconsistent with the in situ geomagnetic field. Considering from the in situ temperature record during the firing of the kiln and the unblocking temperature spectra of the samples, the floor surface samples acquired full thermoremanent magnetizations (TRMs) as their natural remanent magnetizations whereas the -20-cm level samples only acquired partial TRMs, and these differences probably cause the difference in the archeointensity results between the two sample groups. For archeointensity researches, baked clay samples from a kiln floor are considered to be ideal materials.

  15. National Estimates of Marijuana Use and Related Indicators - National Survey on Drug Use and Health, United States, 2002-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azofeifa, Alejandro; Mattson, Margaret E; Schauer, Gillian; McAfee, Tim; Grant, Althea; Lyerla, Rob

    2016-09-02

    In the United States, marijuana is the most commonly used illicit drug. In 2013, 7.5% (19.8 million) of the U.S. population aged ≥12 years reported using marijuana during the preceding month. Because of certain state-level policies that have legalized marijuana for medical or recreational use, population-based data on marijuana use and other related indicators are needed to help monitor behavioral health changes in the United States. 2002-2014. The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) is a national- and state-level survey of a representative sample of the civilian, noninstitutionalized U.S. population aged ≥12 years. NSDUH collects information about the use of illicit drugs, alcohol, and tobacco; initiation of substance use; frequency of substance use; substance dependence and abuse; perception of substance harm risk or no risk; and other related behavioral health indicators. This report describes national trends for selected marijuana use and related indicators, including prevalence of marijuana use; initiation; perception of harm risk, approval, and attitudes; perception of availability and mode of acquisition; dependence and abuse; and perception of legal penalty for marijuana possession. In 2014, a total of 2.5 million persons aged ≥12 years had used marijuana for the first time during the preceding 12 months, an average of approximately 7,000 new users each day. During 2002-2014, the prevalence of marijuana use during the past month, past year, and daily or almost daily increased among persons aged ≥18 years, but not among those aged 12-17 years. Among persons aged ≥12 years, the prevalence of perceived great risk from smoking marijuana once or twice a week and once a month decreased and the prevalence of perceived no risk increased. The prevalence of past year marijuana dependence and abuse decreased, except among persons aged ≥26 years. Among persons aged ≥12 years, the percentage reporting that marijuana was fairly easy or very easy

  16. Response of insect relative growth rate to temperature and host-plant phenology: estimation and validation from field data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mamadou Ciss

    Full Text Available Between 1975 to 2011, aphid Relative Growth Rates (RGR were modelled as a function of mean outdoor temperature and host plant phenology. The model was applied to the grain aphid Sitobion avenae using data on aphid counts in winter wheat at two different climate regions in France (oceanic climate, Rennes (western France; continental climate, Paris. Mean observed aphid RGR was higher in Paris compared to the Rennes region. RGR increased with mean temperature, which is explained by aphid reproduction, growth and development being dependent on ambient temperature. From the stem extension to the heading stage in wheat, there was either a plateau in RGR values (Rennes or an increase with a maximum at heading (Paris due to high intrinsic rates of increase in aphids and also to aphid immigration. From the wheat flowering to the ripening stage, RGR decreased in both regions due to the low intrinsic rate of increase in aphids and high emigration rate linked to reduced nutrient quality in maturing wheat. The model validation process showed that the fitted models have more predictive power in the Paris region than in the Rennes region.

  17. Estimating the magnitude of morphoscapes: how to measure the morphological component of biodiversity in relation to habitats using geometric morphometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaneto, Diego; Panisi, Martina; Mandrioli, Mauro; Montardi, Dario; Pavesi, Maurizio; Cardini, Andrea

    2017-08-01

    Ecological indicators are currently developed to account for the different facets of loss of biological diversity due to direct or indirect effects of human activities. Most ecological indicators include species richness as a metric. Others, such as functional traits and phylogenetic diversity, account for differences in species, even when species richness is the same. Here, we describe and apply a different indicator, called morphoscape dimension, accounting for morphological variability across habitats in a geographical region. We use the case of ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) in four different habitats in the Po Plain in Northern Italy to exemplify how to quantify the magnitude of the morphological space (i.e. the dimension of the morphoscape) occupied by the species in each habitat using geometric morphometrics. To this aim, we employed a variety of metrics of morphological disparity related to univariate size, and more complex multivariate shape and form. Our `proof of concept' suggests that metrics assessing size and form might largely tend to simply mirror the information provided by species richness, whereas shape morphoscape disparity may be able to account for non-trivial differences in species traits amongst habitats. This is indicated by the woodland morphoscape being on average bigger than that of crops, the most species-rich habitat, despite having almost 20% less species. We conclude suggesting that the analysis of morphoscape dimension has the potential to become a new additional and complimentary tool in the hands of conservation biologists and ecologists to explore and quantify habitat complexity and inform decisions on management and conservation based on a wide set of ecological indicators.

  18. Partitioning Uncertainty In Aboveground Carbon Density Estimates: Relative Contributions From Lidar and Forest Inventory In The Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, P.; Keller, M. M.; Morton, D. C.

    2016-12-01

    Carbon accounting for REDD+ requires knowledge of deforestation, degradation, and associated changes in forest carbon stocks. Degradation is more difficult to detect than deforestation so SilvaCarbon, an US inter-agency effort, has set a priority to better characterize forest degradation effects on carbon loss. By combining information from forest inventory and lidar data products, impacts of deforestation, degradation, and associated changes in forest carbon stocks can be more accurately characterized across space. Our approach employs a hierarchical Bayesian modeling (HBM) framework where the assimilation of information from multiple sources is accomplished using a change of support (COS) technique. The COS formulation allows data from multiple spatial resolutions to be assimilated into an intermediate resolution. This approach is being applied in Paragominas, a jurisdiction in the eastern Brazilian Amazon with a high proportion of logged and burned degraded forests where political change has opened the way for REDD+. We build on a long history of research including our extensive studies of logging damage. Our primary objective is to quantify above-ground carbon stocks and corresponding uncertainty in a spatially explicit manner. A secondary objective is to quantify the relative contribution of lower level data products to the overall uncertainty, allowing for more focused subsequent data collection in the context of uncertainty reduction. This approach provides a mechanism to assimilate information from multiple sources to produce spatially-explicit maps of carbon stocks and changes with corresponding spatially explicit maps of uncertainty. Importantly, this approach also provides a mechanism that can be used to assess the value of information from specific data products.

  19. Risk factors for chronic undernutrition among children in India: Estimating relative importance, population attributable risk and fractions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corsi, Daniel J; Mejía-Guevara, Iván; Subramanian, S V

    2016-05-01

    Nearly 40% of the world's stunted children live in India and the prevalence of undernutrition has been persistently high in recent decades. Given numerous available interventions for reducing undernutrition in children, it is not clear of the relative importance of each within a multifactorial framework. We assess the simultaneous contribution of 15 known risk factors for child chronic undernutrition in India. Data are from the 3rd Indian National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3), a nationally representative cross-sectional survey undertaken in 2005-2006. The study population consisted of children aged 6-59 months [n = 26,842 (stunting/low height-for-age), n = 27,483 (underweight/low weight-for-age)]. Risk factors examined for their association with undernutrition were: vitamin A supplementation, vaccination, use of iodized salt, household air quality, improved sanitary facilities, safe disposal of stools, improved drinking water, prevalence of infectious disease, initiation of breastfeeding, dietary diversity, age at marriage, maternal BMI, height, education, and household wealth. Age/sex-adjusted and multivariable adjusted effect sizes (odds ratios) were calculated for risk factors along with Population Attributable Risks (PAR) and Fractions (PAF) using logistic regression. In the mutually adjusted models, the five most important predictors of childhood stunting/underweight were short maternal stature, mother having no education, households in lowest wealth quintile, poor dietary diversity, and maternal underweight. These five factors had a combined PAR of 67.2% (95% CI: 63.3-70.7) and 69.7% (95% CI: 66.3-72.8) for stunting and underweight, respectively. The remaining factors were associated with a combined PAR of 11.7% (95% CI: 6.0-17.4) and 15.1% (95% CI: 8.9-21.3) for stunting and underweight, respectively. Implementing strategies focused on broader progress on social circumstances and infrastructural domains as well as investments in nutrition specific

  20. Challenges Associated with Estimating Utility in Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration: A Novel Regression Analysis to Capture the Bilateral Nature of the Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, Robert; Reason, Timothy; Trueman, David; Wickstead, Rose; Kusel, Jeanette; Jasilek, Adam; Claxton, Lindsay; Taylor, Matthew; Pulikottil-Jacob, Ruth

    2017-10-01

    The estimation of utility values for the economic evaluation of therapies for wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a particular challenge. Previous economic models in wet AMD have been criticized for failing to capture the bilateral nature of wet AMD by modelling visual acuity (VA) and utility values associated with the better-seeing eye only. Here we present a de novo regression analysis using generalized estimating equations (GEE) applied to a previous dataset of time trade-off (TTO)-derived utility values from a sample of the UK population that wore contact lenses to simulate visual deterioration in wet AMD. This analysis allows utility values to be estimated as a function of VA in both the better-seeing eye (BSE) and worse-seeing eye (WSE). VAs in both the BSE and WSE were found to be statistically significant (p regression analysis provides a possible source of utility values to allow future economic models to capture the quality of life impact of changes in VA in both eyes. Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Limited.

  1. Estimation of Direct Melanoma-related Costs by Disease Stage and by Phase of Diagnosis and Treatment According to Clinical Guidelines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Buja

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Cutaneous melanoma is a major concern in terms of healthcare systems and economics. The aim of this study was to estimate the direct costs of melanoma by disease stage, phase of diagnosis, and treatment according to the pre-set clinical guidelines drafted by the AIOM (Italian Medical Oncological Association. Based on the AIOM guidelines for malignant cutaneous melanoma, a highly detailed decision-making model was developed describing the patient’s pathway from diagnosis through the subsequent phases of disease staging, surgical and medical treatment, and follow-up. The model associates each phase potentially involving medical procedures with a likelihood measure and a cost, thus enabling an estimation of the expected costs by disease stage and clinical phase of melanoma diagnosis and treatment according to the clinical guidelines. The mean per-patient cost of the whole melanoma pathway (including one year of follow-up ranged from €149 for stage 0 disease to €66,950 for stage IV disease. The costs relating to each phase of the disease’s diagnosis and treatment depended on disease stage. It is essential to calculate the direct costs of managing malignant cutaneous melanoma according to clinical guidelines in order to estimate the economic burden of this disease and to enable policy-makers to allocate appropriate resources.

  2. A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobb, Jennifer F; Dominici, Francesca; Peng, Roger D

    2011-12-01

    Estimating the risks heat waves pose to human health is a critical part of assessing the future impact of climate change. In this article, we propose a flexible class of time series models to estimate the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves and conduct Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to account for the multiplicity of potential models. Applying these methods to data from 105 U.S. cities for the period 1987-2005, we identify those cities having a high posterior probability of increased mortality risk during heat waves, examine the heterogeneity of the posterior distributions of mortality risk across cities, assess sensitivity of the results to the selection of prior distributions, and compare our BMA results to a model selection approach. Our results show that no single model best predicts risk across the majority of cities, and that for some cities heat-wave risk estimation is sensitive to model choice. Although model averaging leads to posterior distributions with increased variance as compared to statistical inference conditional on a model obtained through model selection, we find that the posterior mean of heat wave mortality risk is robust to accounting for model uncertainty over a broad class of models. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  3. [Methods and Applications to estimate the conversion factor of Resource-Based Relative Value Scale for nurse-midwife's delivery service in the national health insurance].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jinhyun; Jung, Yoomi

    2009-08-01

    This paper analyzed alternative methods of calculating the conversion factor for nurse-midwife's delivery services in the national health insurance and estimated the optimal reimbursement level for the services. A cost accounting model and Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) model were developed to estimate the conversion factor of Resource-Based Relative Value Scale (RBRVS) for nurse-midwife's services, depending on the scope of revenue considered in financial analysis. The data and sources from the government and the financial statements from nurse-midwife clinics were used in analysis. The cost accounting model and SGR model showed a 17.6-37.9% increase and 19.0-23.6% increase, respectively, in nurse-midwife fee for delivery services in the national health insurance. The SGR model measured an overall trend of medical expenditures rather than an individual financial status of nurse-midwife clinics, and the cost analysis properly estimated the level of reimbursement for nurse-midwife's services. Normal vaginal delivery in nurse-midwife clinics is considered cost-effective in terms of insurance financing. Upon a declining share of health expenditures on midwife clinics, designing a reimbursement strategy for midwife's services could be an opportunity as well as a challenge when it comes to efficient resource allocation.

  4. Estimating State-Specific Contributions to PM2.5- and O3-Related Health Burden from Residential Combustion and Electricity Generating Unit Emissions in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penn, Stefani L; Arunachalam, Saravanan; Woody, Matthew; Heiger-Bernays, Wendy; Tripodis, Yorghos; Levy, Jonathan I

    2017-03-01

    Residential combustion (RC) and electricity generating unit (EGU) emissions adversely impact air quality and human health by increasing ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and ozone (O 3 ). Studies to date have not isolated contributing emissions by state of origin (source-state), which is necessary for policy makers to determine efficient strategies to decrease health impacts. In this study, we aimed to estimate health impacts (premature mortalities) attributable to PM 2.5 and O 3 from RC and EGU emissions by precursor species, source sector, and source-state in the continental United States for 2005. We used the Community Multiscale Air Quality model employing the decoupled direct method to quantify changes in air quality and epidemiological evidence to determine concentration-response functions to calculate associated health impacts. We estimated 21,000 premature mortalities per year from EGU emissions, driven by sulfur dioxide emissions forming PM 2.5 . More than half of EGU health impacts are attributable to emissions from eight states with significant coal combustion and large downwind populations. We estimate 10,000 premature mortalities per year from RC emissions, driven by primary PM 2.5 emissions. States with large populations and significant residential wood combustion dominate RC health impacts. Annual mortality risk per thousand tons of precursor emissions (health damage functions) varied significantly across source-states for both source sectors and all precursor pollutants. Our findings reinforce the importance of pollutant-specific, location-specific, and source-specific models of health impacts in design of health-risk minimizing emissions control policies. Citation: Penn SL, Arunachalam S, Woody M, Heiger-Bernays W, Tripodis Y, Levy JI. 2017. Estimating state-specific contributions to PM 2.5 - and O 3 -related health burden from residential combustion and electricity generating unit emissions in the United States. Environ

  5. Care during labor and birth for the prevention of intrapartum-related neonatal deaths: a systematic review and Delphi estimation of mortality effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Our objective was to estimate the effect of various childbirth care packages on neonatal mortality due to intrapartum-related events (“birth asphyxia”) in term babies for use in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Methods We conducted a systematic literature review to identify studies or reviews of childbirth care packages as defined by United Nations norms (basic and comprehensive emergency obstetric care, skilled care at birth). We also reviewed Traditional Birth Attendant (TBA) training. Data were abstracted into standard tables and quality assessed by adapted GRADE criteria. For interventions with low quality evidence, but strong GRADE recommendation for implementation, an expert Delphi consensus process was conducted to estimate cause-specific mortality effects. Results We identified evidence for the effect on perinatal/neonatal mortality of emergency obstetric care packages: 9 studies (8 observational, 1 quasi-experimental), and for skilled childbirth care: 10 studies (8 observational, 2 quasi-experimental). Studies were of low quality, but the GRADE recommendation for implementation is strong. Our Delphi process included 21 experts representing all WHO regions and achieved consensus on the reduction of intrapartum-related neonatal deaths by comprehensive emergency obstetric care (85%), basic emergency obstetric care (40%), and skilled birth care (25%). For TBA training we identified 2 meta-analyses and 9 studies reporting mortality effects (3 cRCT, 1 quasi-experimental, 5 observational). There was substantial between-study heterogeneity and the overall quality of evidence was low. Because the GRADE recommendation for TBA training is conditional on the context and region, the effect was not estimated through a Delphi or included in the LiST tool. Conclusion Evidence quality is rated low, partly because of challenges in undertaking RCTs for obstetric interventions, which are considered standard of care. Additional challenges for evidence interpretation

  6. Care during labor and birth for the prevention of intrapartum-related neonatal deaths: a systematic review and Delphi estimation of mortality effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moran Neil F

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Our objective was to estimate the effect of various childbirth care packages on neonatal mortality due to intrapartum-related events (“birth asphyxia” in term babies for use in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST. Methods We conducted a systematic literature review to identify studies or reviews of childbirth care packages as defined by United Nations norms (basic and comprehensive emergency obstetric care, skilled care at birth. We also reviewed Traditional Birth Attendant (TBA training. Data were abstracted into standard tables and quality assessed by adapted GRADE criteria. For interventions with low quality evidence, but strong GRADE recommendation for implementation, an expert Delphi consensus process was conducted to estimate cause-specific mortality effects. Results We identified evidence for the effect on perinatal/neonatal mortality of emergency obstetric care packages: 9 studies (8 observational, 1 quasi-experimental, and for skilled childbirth care: 10 studies (8 observational, 2 quasi-experimental. Studies were of low quality, but the GRADE recommendation for implementation is strong. Our Delphi process included 21 experts representing all WHO regions and achieved consensus on the reduction of intrapartum-related neonatal deaths by comprehensive emergency obstetric care (85%, basic emergency obstetric care (40%, and skilled birth care (25%. For TBA training we identified 2 meta-analyses and 9 studies reporting mortality effects (3 cRCT, 1 quasi-experimental, 5 observational. There was substantial between-study heterogeneity and the overall quality of evidence was low. Because the GRADE recommendation for TBA training is conditional on the context and region, the effect was not estimated through a Delphi or included in the LiST tool. Conclusion Evidence quality is rated low, partly because of challenges in undertaking RCTs for obstetric interventions, which are considered standard of care. Additional challenges for

  7. Proposed Method for Estimating Health-Promoting Glucosinolates and Hydrolysis Products in Broccoli (Brassica oleracea var. italica) Using Relative Transcript Abundance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Talon M; Jeffery, Elizabeth H; Juvik, John A

    2017-01-18

    Due to the importance of glucosinolates and their hydrolysis products in human nutrition and plant defense, optimizing the content of these compounds is a frequent breeding objective for Brassica crops. Toward this goal, we investigated the feasibility of using models built from relative transcript abundance data for the prediction of glucosinolate and hydrolysis product concentrations in broccoli. We report that predictive models explaining at least 50% of the variation for a number of glucosinolates and their hydrolysis products can be built for prediction within the same season, but prediction accuracy decreased when using models built from one season's data for prediction of an opposing season. This method of phytochemical profile prediction could potentially allow for lower phytochemical phenotyping costs and larger breeding populations. This, in turn, could improve selection efficiency for phase II induction potential, a type of chemopreventive bioactivity, by allowing for the quick and relatively cheap content estimation of phytochemicals known to influence the trait.

  8. Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City Under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2016-01-01

    High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. This study has derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopt a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projects heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporate a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimate future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3331 in the 2080s compared to 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York, and highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

  9. Accuracy of the CT-estimated weight of the right hepatic lobe prior to living related liver donation (LRLD) for predicting the intraoperatively measured weight of the graft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemke, A.-J.; Brinkmann, M.; Felix, R.; Pascher, A.; Steinmueller, T.; Settmacher, U.; Neuhaus, P.

    2003-01-01

    Purpose: Due to the shortage of cadaver donors, living related liver donation (LRLD) has emerged as an alternative to cadaver donation. The expected graft weight is one of the main determinants for donor selection. This study investigates the accuracy of preoperatively performed CT-volumetry to predict the actual weight of the right liver lobe graft. Materials and methods: In a prospective study the weight of the right hepatic lobe was calculated by volumetric analysis based on CT in 33 patients (21 females, 12 males, mean age 42.1 years, median age 41 years) prior to living related liver donation. Graft weight was calculated as the product of CT-based graft volume and 1.00 g/ml (the approximated density of healthy liver parenchyma). The calculated weight was compared with the intraoperatively measured weight of the harvested right hepatic lobe. The difference was used to determine a correction factor for estimating the actual graft weight. Results: Based on the assumption of a parenchymal density of 1.00 g/ml, the preoperatively estimated graft weight (mean 980 g ± 168 g) deviated + 33% from the intraoperatively measured right hepatic lobe weight (mean 749 g ± 170 g). By reducing the preoperatively predicted weight of the right hepatic lobe with a correction factor of 0.75, the actual graft weight can be calculated [de

  10. The relative validity and repeatability of an FFQ for estimating intake of zinc and its absorption modifiers in young and older Saudi adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsufiani, Hadeil M; Yamani, Fatmah; Kumosani, Taha A; Ford, Dianne; Mathers, John C

    2015-04-01

    To assess the relative validity and repeatability of a sixty-four-item FFQ for estimating dietary intake of Zn and its absorption modifiers in Saudi adults. In addition, we used the FFQ to investigate the effect of age and gender on these intakes. To assess validity, all participants completed the FFQ (FFQ1) and a 3 d food record. After 1 month, the FFQ was administered for a second time (FFQ2) to assess repeatability. Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. One hundred males and females aged 20-30 years and 60-70 years participated. Mean intakes of Zn and protein from FFQ1 were significantly higher than those from the food record while there were no detectable differences between tools for measurement of phytic acid intake. Estimated intakes of Zn, protein and phytate by both approaches were strongly correlated (Prange of intakes while for Zn and phytic acid, the difference increased with increasing mean intake. Zn and protein intakes from FFQ1 and FFQ2 were highly correlated (r>0·68, Padults consumed less Zn and protein compared with young adults. Intakes of all dietary components were lower in females than in males. The FFQ developed and tested in the current study demonstrated reasonable relative validity and high repeatability and was capable of detecting differences in intakes between age and gender groups.

  11. Relativity

    CERN Document Server

    Einstein, Albert

    2013-01-01

    Time magazine's ""Man of the Century"", Albert Einstein is the founder of modern physics and his theory of relativity is the most important scientific idea of the modern era. In this short book, Einstein explains, using the minimum of mathematical terms, the basic ideas and principles of the theory that has shaped the world we live in today. Unsurpassed by any subsequent books on relativity, this remains the most popular and useful exposition of Einstein's immense contribution to human knowledge.With a new foreword by Derek Raine.

  12. A Simple Plasma Retinol Isotope Ratio Method for Estimating β-Carotene Relative Bioefficacy in Humans: Validation with the Use of Model-Based Compartmental Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Jennifer Lynn; Green, Joanne Balmer; Lietz, Georg; Oxley, Anthony; Green, Michael H

    2017-09-01

    Background: Provitamin A carotenoids are an important source of dietary vitamin A for many populations. Thus, accurate and simple methods for estimating carotenoid bioefficacy are needed to evaluate the vitamin A value of test solutions and plant sources. β-Carotene bioefficacy is often estimated from the ratio of the areas under plasma isotope response curves after subjects ingest labeled β-carotene and a labeled retinyl acetate reference dose [isotope reference method (IRM)], but to our knowledge, the method has not yet been evaluated for accuracy. Objectives: Our objectives were to develop and test a physiologically based compartmental model that includes both absorptive and postabsorptive β-carotene bioconversion and to use the model to evaluate the accuracy of the IRM and a simple plasma retinol isotope ratio [(RIR), labeled β-carotene-derived retinol/labeled reference-dose-derived retinol in one plasma sample] for estimating relative bioefficacy. Methods: We used model-based compartmental analysis (Simulation, Analysis and Modeling software) to develop and apply a model that provided known values for β-carotene bioefficacy. Theoretical data for 10 subjects were generated by the model and used to determine bioefficacy by RIR and IRM; predictions were compared with known values. We also applied RIR and IRM to previously published data. Results: Plasma RIR accurately predicted β-carotene relative bioefficacy at 14 d or later. IRM also accurately predicted bioefficacy by 14 d, except that, when there was substantial postabsorptive bioconversion, IRM underestimated bioefficacy. Based on our model, 1-d predictions of relative bioefficacy include absorptive plus a portion of early postabsorptive conversion. Conclusion: The plasma RIR is a simple tracer method that accurately predicts β-carotene relative bioefficacy based on analysis of one blood sample obtained at ≥14 d after co-ingestion of labeled β-carotene and retinyl acetate. The method also provides

  13. An Inertial Sensor-Based Method for Estimating the Athlete's Relative Joint Center Positions and Center of Mass Kinematics in Alpine Ski Racing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fasel, Benedikt; Spörri, Jörg; Schütz, Pascal; Lorenzetti, Silvio; Aminian, Kamiar

    2017-01-01

    For the purpose of gaining a deeper understanding of the relationship between external training load and health in competitive alpine skiing, an accurate and precise estimation of the athlete's kinematics is an essential methodological prerequisite. This study proposes an inertial sensor-based method to estimate the athlete's relative joint center positions and center of mass (CoM) kinematics in alpine skiing. Eleven inertial sensors were fixed to the lower and upper limbs, trunk, and head. The relative positions of the ankle, knee, hip, shoulder, elbow, and wrist joint centers, as well as the athlete's CoM kinematics were validated against a marker-based optoelectronic motion capture system during indoor carpet skiing. For all joints centers analyzed, position accuracy (mean error) was below 110 mm and precision (error standard deviation) was below 30 mm. CoM position accuracy and precision were 25.7 and 6.7 mm, respectively. Both the accuracy and precision of the system to estimate the distance between the ankle of the outside leg and CoM (measure quantifying the skier's overall vertical motion) were found to be below 11 mm. Some poorer accuracy and precision values (below 77 mm) were observed for the athlete's fore-aft position (i.e., the projection of the outer ankle-CoM vector onto the line corresponding to the projection of ski's longitudinal axis on the snow surface). In addition, the system was found to be sensitive enough to distinguish between different types of turns (wide/narrow). Thus, the method proposed in this paper may also provide a useful, pervasive way to monitor and control adverse external loading patterns that occur during regular on-snow training. Moreover, as demonstrated earlier, such an approach might have a certain potential to quantify competition time, movement repetitions and/or the accelerations acting on the different segments of the human body. However, prior to getting feasible for applications in daily training, future studies

  14. An Inertial Sensor-Based Method for Estimating the Athlete's Relative Joint Center Positions and Center of Mass Kinematics in Alpine Ski Racing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benedikt Fasel

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available For the purpose of gaining a deeper understanding of the relationship between external training load and health in competitive alpine skiing, an accurate and precise estimation of the athlete's kinematics is an essential methodological prerequisite. This study proposes an inertial sensor-based method to estimate the athlete's relative joint center positions and center of mass (CoM kinematics in alpine skiing. Eleven inertial sensors were fixed to the lower and upper limbs, trunk, and head. The relative positions of the ankle, knee, hip, shoulder, elbow, and wrist joint centers, as well as the athlete's CoM kinematics were validated against a marker-based optoelectronic motion capture system during indoor carpet skiing. For all joints centers analyzed, position accuracy (mean error was below 110 mm and precision (error standard deviation was below 30 mm. CoM position accuracy and precision were 25.7 and 6.7 mm, respectively. Both the accuracy and precision of the system to estimate the distance between the ankle of the outside leg and CoM (measure quantifying the skier's overall vertical motion were found to be below 11 mm. Some poorer accuracy and precision values (below 77 mm were observed for the athlete's fore-aft position (i.e., the projection of the outer ankle-CoM vector onto the line corresponding to the projection of ski's longitudinal axis on the snow surface. In addition, the system was found to be sensitive enough to distinguish between different types of turns (wide/narrow. Thus, the method proposed in this paper may also provide a useful, pervasive way to monitor and control adverse external loading patterns that occur during regular on-snow training. Moreover, as demonstrated earlier, such an approach might have a certain potential to quantify competition time, movement repetitions and/or the accelerations acting on the different segments of the human body. However, prior to getting feasible for applications in daily training

  15. Estimating Parameters Related to the Lifespan of Passively Transferred and Vaccine-Induced Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus Type I Antibodies by Modeling Field Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathieu Andraud

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The outputs of epidemiological models are strongly related to the structure of the model and input parameters. The latter are defined by fitting theoretical concepts to actual data derived from field or experimental studies. However, some parameters may remain difficult to estimate and are subject to uncertainty or sensitivity analyses to determine their variation range and their global impact on model outcomes. As such, the evaluation of immunity duration is often a puzzling issue requiring long-term follow-up data that are, most of time, not available. The present analysis aims at characterizing the kinetics of antibodies against Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome virus (PRRSv from longitudinal data sets. The first data set consisted in the serological follow-up of 22 vaccinated gilts during 21 weeks post-vaccination (PV. The second one gathered the maternally derived antibodies (MDAs kinetics in piglets from three different farms up to 14 weeks of age. The peak of the PV serological response against PRRSv was reached 6.9 weeks PV on average with an average duration of antibodies persistence of 26.5 weeks. In the monitored cohort of piglets, the duration of passive immunity was found relatively short, with an average duration of 4.8 weeks. The level of PRRSv-MDAs was found correlated with the dams’ antibody titer at birth, and the antibody persistence was strongly related to the initial MDAs titers in piglets. These results evidenced the importance of PRRSv vaccination schedule in sows, to optimize the delivery of antibodies to suckling piglets. These estimates of the duration of active and passive immunity could be further used as input parameters of epidemiological models to analyze their impact on the persistence of PRRSv within farms.

  16. Fundamental discrepancies in abortion estimates and abortion-related mortality: A reevaluation of recent studies in Mexico with special reference to the International Classification of Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koch E

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Elard Koch,1,2 Paula Aracena,1 Sebastián Gatica,1 Miguel Bravo,1 Alejandra Huerta-Zepeda,3 Byron C Calhoun41Institute of Molecular Epidemiology (MELISA, Center of Embryonic Medicine and Maternal Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile; 2Faculty of Medicine, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; 3Universidad Popular Autónoma del Estado de Puebla UPAEP, Puebla, México; 4Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, West Virginia University, Charleston, WV, USAAbstract: In countries where induced abortion is legally restricted, as in most of Latin America, evaluation of statistics related to induced abortions and abortion-related mortality is challenging. The present article reexamines recent reports estimating the number of induced abortions and abortion-related mortality in Mexico, with special reference to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD. We found significant overestimations of abortion figures in the Federal District of Mexico (up to 10-fold, where elective abortion has been legal since 2007. Significant overestimation of maternal and abortion-related mortality during the last 20 years in the entire Mexican country (up to 35% was also found. Such overestimations are most likely due to the use of incomplete in-hospital records as well as subjective opinion surveys regarding induced abortion figures, and due to the consideration of causes of death that are unrelated to induced abortion, including flawed denominators of live births. Contrary to previous publications, we found important progress in maternal health, reflected by the decrease in overall maternal mortality (30.6% from 1990 to 2010. The use of specific ICD codes revealed that the mortality ratio associated with induced abortion decreased 22.9% between 2002 and 2008 (from 1.48 to 1.14 deaths per 100,000 live births. Currently, approximately 98% of maternal deaths in Mexico are related to causes other than

  17. Fundamental discrepancies in abortion estimates and abortion-related mortality: A reevaluation of recent studies in Mexico with special reference to the International Classification of Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Elard; Aracena, Paula; Gatica, Sebastián; Bravo, Miguel; Huerta-Zepeda, Alejandra; Calhoun, Byron C

    2012-01-01

    In countries where induced abortion is legally restricted, as in most of Latin America, evaluation of statistics related to induced abortions and abortion-related mortality is challenging. The present article reexamines recent reports estimating the number of induced abortions and abortion-related mortality in Mexico, with special reference to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD). We found significant overestimations of abortion figures in the Federal District of Mexico (up to 10-fold), where elective abortion has been legal since 2007. Significant overestimation of maternal and abortion-related mortality during the last 20 years in the entire Mexican country (up to 35%) was also found. Such overestimations are most likely due to the use of incomplete in-hospital records as well as subjective opinion surveys regarding induced abortion figures, and due to the consideration of causes of death that are unrelated to induced abortion, including flawed denominators of live births. Contrary to previous publications, we found important progress in maternal health, reflected by the decrease in overall maternal mortality (30.6%) from 1990 to 2010. The use of specific ICD codes revealed that the mortality ratio associated with induced abortion decreased 22.9% between 2002 and 2008 (from 1.48 to 1.14 deaths per 100,000 live births). Currently, approximately 98% of maternal deaths in Mexico are related to causes other than induced abortion, such as hemorrhage, hypertension and eclampsia, indirect causes, and other pathological conditions. Therefore, only marginal or null effects would be expected from changes in the legal status of abortion on overall maternal mortality rates. Rather, maternal health in Mexico would greatly benefit from increasing access to emergency and specialized obstetric care. Finally, more reliable methodologies to assess abortion-related deaths are clearly required. PMID:23271925

  18. Estimated incidence of cardiovascular complications related to type 2 diabetes in Mexico using the UKPDS outcome model and a population-based survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynoso-Noverón, Nancy; Mehta, Roopa; Almeda-Valdes, Paloma; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Villalpando, Salvador; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A

    2011-01-07

    To estimate the incidence of complications, life expectancy and diabetes related mortality in the Mexican diabetic population over the next two decades using data from a nation-wide, population based survey and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) outcome model. The cohort included all patients with type 2 diabetes evaluated during the National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANut) 2006. ENSANut is a probabilistic multistage stratified survey whose aim was to measure the prevalence of chronic diseases. A total of 47,152 households were visited. Results are shown stratified by gender, time since diagnosis (> or ≤ to 10 years) and age at the time of diagnosis (> or ≤ 40 years). The prevalence of diabetes in our cohort was 14.4%. The predicted 20 year-incidence for chronic complications per 1000 individuals are: ischemic heart disease 112, myocardial infarction 260, heart failure 113, stroke 101, and amputation 62. Furthermore, 539 per 1000 patients will have a diabetes-related premature death. The average life expectancy for the diabetic population is 10.9 years (95%CI 10.7-11.2); this decreases to 8.3 years after adjusting for quality of life (CI95% 8.1-8.5). Male sex and cases diagnosed after age 40 have the highest risk for developing at least one major complication during the next 20 years. Based on the current clinical profile of Mexican patients with diabetes, the burden of disease related complications will be tremendous over the next two decades.

  19. Evaluation of the effect of non-surgical periodontal treatment on oral health-related quality of life: estimation of minimal important differences 1 year after treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jönsson, Birgitta; Öhrn, Kerstin

    2014-03-01

    To evaluate an individually tailored oral health educational programme on patient-reported outcome compared with a standard oral health educational programme, assess change over time and determine minimal important differences (MID) in change scores for two different oral health related quality of life (OHRQoL) instrument after non-surgical periodontal treatment (NSPT). In a randomized controlled trial evaluating two educational programmes, patients (n = 87) with chronic periodontitis completed a questionnaire at baseline and after 12 months. OHRQoL was assessed with the General Oral Health Assessment Index (GOHAI) and the UK oral health-related quality-of-life measure (OHQoL-UK). In addition, patients' global rating of oral health and socio-demographic variables were recorded. The MID was estimated with anchor-based and distributions-based methods. There were no differences between the two educational groups. The OHRQoL was significantly improved after treatment. The MID was approximately five for OHQoL-UK with a moderate ES, and three for GOHAI with a Small ES, and 46-50% of the patients showed improvements beyond the MID. Both oral health educational groups reported higher scores in OHRQoL after NSPT resulting in more positive well-being (OHQoL-UK) and less frequent oral problems (GOHAI). OHQoL-UK gave a greater effect size and mean change scores but both instruments were associated with the participants' self-rated change in oral health. The changes were meaningful for the patients supported by the estimated MID. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. SU-G-IeP1-06: Estimating Relative Tissue Density From Quantitative MR Images: A Novel Perspective for MRI-Only Heterogeneity Corrected Dose Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soliman, A; Hashemi, M; Safigholi, H; Tchistiakova, E; Song, W

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To explore the feasibility of extracting the relative density from quantitative MRI measurements as well as estimate a correlation between the extracted measures and CT Hounsfield units. Methods: MRI has the ability to separate water and fat signals, producing two separate images for each component. By performing appropriate corrections on the separated images, quantitative measurement of water and fat mass density can be estimated. This work aims to test this hypothesis on 1.5T.Peanut oil was used as fat-representative, while agar as water-representative. Gadolinium Chloride III and Sodium Chloride were added to the agar solution to adjust the relaxation times and the medium conductivity, respectively. Peanut oil was added to the agar solution with different percentages: 0%, 3%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% and 100%. The phantom was scanned on 1.5T GE Optima 450W with the body coil using a multigradient echo sequences. Water/fat separation were performed while correcting for main field (B0) inhomogeneity and T_2* relaxation time. B1+ inhomogeneities were ignored. The phantom was subsequently scanned on a Philips Brilliance CT Big Bore. MR-corrected fat signal from all vials were normalized to 100% fat signal. CT Hounsfield values were then compared to those obtained from the normalized MR-corrected fat values as well as to the phantom for validation. Results: Good agreement were found between CT HU and the MR-extracted fat values (R"2 = 0.98). CT HU also showed excellent agreement with the prepared fat fractions (R"2=0.99). Vials with 70%, 80%, and 90% fat percentages showed inhomogeneous distributions, however their results were included for completion. Conclusion: Quantitative MRI water/fat imaging can be potentially used to extract the relative tissue density. Further in-vivo validation are required.

  1. Preoperative Estimation of Future Remnant Liver Function Following Portal Vein Embolization Using Relative Enhancement on Gadoxetic Acid Disodium-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sato, Yozo [Department of Radiology, Aichi Medical University, Aichi 480-1195 (Japan); Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya 464-8681 (Japan); Matsushima, Shigeru; Inaba, Yoshitaka [Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya 464-8681 (Japan); Sano, Tsuyoshi [Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya 464-8681 (Japan); Yamaura, Hidekazu; Kato, Mina [Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya 464-8681 (Japan); Shimizu, Yasuhiro; Senda, Yoshiki [Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya 464-8681 (Japan); Ishiguchi, Tsuneo [Department of Radiology, Aichi Medical University, Aichi 480-1195 (Japan)

    2015-11-01

    To retrospectively evaluate relative enhancement (RE) in the hepatobiliary phase of gadoxetic acid disodium-enhanced magnetic resonance (MR) imaging as a preoperative estimation of future remnant liver (FRL) function in a patients who underwent portal vein embolization (PVE). In 53 patients, the correlation between the indocyanine green clearance (ICG-K) and RE imaging was analyzed before hepatectomy (first analysis). Twenty-three of the 53 patients underwent PVE followed by a repeat RE imaging and ICG test before an extended hepatectomy and their results were further analyzed (second analysis). Whole liver function and FRL function were calculated on the MR imaging as follows: RE x total liver volume (RE Index) and FRL-RE x FRL volume (Rem RE Index), respectively. Regarding clinical outcome, posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) was evaluated in patients undergoing PVE. Indocyanine green clearance correlated with the RE Index (r = 0.365, p = 0.007), and ICG-K of FRL (ICG-Krem) strongly correlated with the Rem RE Index (r = 0.738, p < 0.001) in the first analysis. Both the ICG-Krem and the Rem RE Index were significantly correlated after PVE (r = 0.508, p = 0.013) at the second analysis. The rate of improvement of the Rem RE Index from before PVE to after PVE was significantly higher than that of ICG-Krem (p = 0.014). Patients with PHLF had a significantly lower Rem RE Index than patients without PHLF (p = 0.023). Relative enhancement imaging can be used to estimate FRL function after PVE.

  2. SU-G-IeP1-06: Estimating Relative Tissue Density From Quantitative MR Images: A Novel Perspective for MRI-Only Heterogeneity Corrected Dose Calculation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soliman, A; Hashemi, M; Safigholi, H [Sunnybrook Research Institute, Toronto, ON (Canada); Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, ON (Canada); Tchistiakova, E [Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, ON (Canada); University of Toronto, Toronto, ON (Canada); Song, W [Sunnybrook Research Institute, Toronto, ON (Canada); Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, ON (Canada); University of Toronto, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To explore the feasibility of extracting the relative density from quantitative MRI measurements as well as estimate a correlation between the extracted measures and CT Hounsfield units. Methods: MRI has the ability to separate water and fat signals, producing two separate images for each component. By performing appropriate corrections on the separated images, quantitative measurement of water and fat mass density can be estimated. This work aims to test this hypothesis on 1.5T.Peanut oil was used as fat-representative, while agar as water-representative. Gadolinium Chloride III and Sodium Chloride were added to the agar solution to adjust the relaxation times and the medium conductivity, respectively. Peanut oil was added to the agar solution with different percentages: 0%, 3%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% and 100%. The phantom was scanned on 1.5T GE Optima 450W with the body coil using a multigradient echo sequences. Water/fat separation were performed while correcting for main field (B0) inhomogeneity and T{sub 2}* relaxation time. B1+ inhomogeneities were ignored. The phantom was subsequently scanned on a Philips Brilliance CT Big Bore. MR-corrected fat signal from all vials were normalized to 100% fat signal. CT Hounsfield values were then compared to those obtained from the normalized MR-corrected fat values as well as to the phantom for validation. Results: Good agreement were found between CT HU and the MR-extracted fat values (R{sup 2} = 0.98). CT HU also showed excellent agreement with the prepared fat fractions (R{sup 2}=0.99). Vials with 70%, 80%, and 90% fat percentages showed inhomogeneous distributions, however their results were included for completion. Conclusion: Quantitative MRI water/fat imaging can be potentially used to extract the relative tissue density. Further in-vivo validation are required.

  3. Radar-based rainfall estimation: Improving Z/R relations through comparison of drop size distributions, rainfall rates and radar reflectivity patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuper, Malte; Ehret, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    The relation between the measured radar reflectivity factor Z and surface rainfall intensity R - the Z/R relation - is profoundly complex, so that in general one speaks about radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) rather than exact measurement. Like in Plato's Allegory of the Cave, what we observe in the end is only the 'shadow' of the true rainfall field through a very small backscatter of an electromagnetic signal emitted by the radar, which we hope has been actually reflected by hydrometeors. The meteorological relevant and valuable Information is gained only indirectly by more or less justified assumptions. One of these assumptions concerns the drop size distribution, through which the rain intensity is finally associated with the measured radar reflectivity factor Z. The real drop size distribution is however subject to large spatial and temporal variability, and consequently so is the true Z/R relation. Better knowledge of the true spatio-temporal Z/R structure therefore has the potential to improve radar-based QPE compared to the common practice of applying a single or a few standard Z/R relations. To this end, we use observations from six laser-optic disdrometers, two vertically pointing micro rain radars, 205 rain gauges, one rawindsonde station and two C-band Doppler radars installed or operated in and near the Attert catchment (Luxembourg). The C-band radars and the rawindsonde station are operated by the Belgian and German Weather Services, the rain gauge data was partly provided by the French, Dutch, Belgian, German Weather Services and the Ministry of Agriculture of Luxembourg and the other equipment was installed as part of the interdisciplinary DFG research project CAOS (Catchment as Organized Systems). With the various data sets correlation analyzes were executed. In order to get a notion on the different appearance of the reflectivity patterns in the radar image, first of all various simple distribution indices (for example the

  4. Estimating the relative nutrient uptake from different soil depths in Quercus robur, Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Göransson, Hans; Wallander, Håkan; Ingerslev, Morten

    2006-01-01

    The distribution of fine roots and external ectomycorrhizal mycelium of three species of trees was determined down to a soil depth of 55 cm to estimate the relative nutrient uptake capacity of the trees from different soil layers. In addition, a root bioassay was performed to estimate the nutrien...

  5. A guidance manual for estimating greenhouse gas emissions from fuel combustion and process-related sources for primary base metals smelting and refining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-03-01

    This technical guidance manual is a useful resource for helping the metals industry compile inventories of its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The guidance is consistent with Canada's national GHG accounting methodologies. It provides information to smelters and refiners of base metals on how to estimate their GHG emissions from fuel combustion and specific process-related activities. The base metals group in this manual included copper, nickel, lead, zinc, and cobalt. Fuel combustion includes all stationary combustion activities for generating heat or work, and includes waste incineration if the waste heat is used for energy. It also includes mobile fuel combustion activities such as on-site transportation of raw materials from one process to another. Guidance is provided for carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}) and nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O). Process-related activities include specific industrial processes that contribute to GHG emissions. For base metal smelting, this includes CO{sub 2} emissions from use of carbonate reagents, use of reducing agents, electrode consumption, and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) emissions from use in refrigeration systems. This document also included sections on quality assurance; aspects of uncertainty assessment; verification; and, reporting of emissions information. refs., tabs., figs.

  6. Relative influences of the metocean forcings on the drifting ice pack and estimation of internal ice stress gradients in the Labrador Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turnbull, I. D.; Torbati, R. Z.; Taylor, R. S.

    2017-07-01

    Understanding the relative influences of the metocean forcings on the drift of sea ice floes is a crucial component to the overall characterization of an ice environment and to developing an understanding of the factors controlling the ice dynamics. In addition, estimating the magnitude of the internal stress gradients on drifting sea ice floes generated by surrounding ice cover is important for modeling operations, informing the design of offshore structures and vessels in ice environments, and for the proper calibration of Discrete Element Models (DEM) of fields of drifting ice floes. In the spring of 2015 and 2016, four sea ice floes offshore Makkovik, Labrador were tagged with satellite-linked ice tracking buoys along with one satellite-linked weather station on each floe to transmit wind speed and direction. Twenty satellite-linked Lagrangian surface ocean current tracking buoys were also deployed in the open water adjacent to the targeted ice floes. In this paper, the dynamics of the four ice floes are explored in terms of the relative proportions which were forced by the wind, current, sea surface topography, Coriolis, and internal stress gradients. The internal ice stress gradients are calculated as residuals between the observed accelerations of the floes as measured by the tracking buoys and the sums of the other metocean forcings. Results show that internal ice stress gradients accounted for up to 50% of the observed forcing on the floes, and may have reached up to around 0.19 kPa.

  7. Estimation of future levels and changes in profitability: The effect of the relative position of the firm in its industry and the operating-financing disaggregation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borja Amor-Tapia

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we examine how the relative position of a firm's Return on Equity (ROE in industries affects the predictability of the next-year ROE levels, and the ROE changes from year to year. Using Nissim and Penman breakdown into operating and financing drivers, the significant role of the industry factor is established, although changes in signs suggest subtle non-linear relations in the drivers. Our study avoids problems originating from negative signs by analyzing sorts and by making new regressions with disaggregated second-order drivers by signs. This way, our results provide evidence of some different patterns in the influence of the first-level drivers of ROE (the operating factor and the financing factor, and the second-level drivers (profit margin, asset turnover, leverage and return spread on future profitability, depending on the industry spread. The results on the role of contextual factors to improve the estimation of future profitability remain consistent for small and large firms, although adding some nuances.

  8. Estimate of Impact on the Oral Health-Related Quality of Life of Older Thai People by the Provision of Dentures through the Royal Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srisilapanan, Patcharawan; Korwanich, Narumanas; Jienmaneechotchai, Sutha; Dalodom, Supranee; Veerachai, Nontalee; Vejvitee, Warangkana; Roseman, Jeffrey

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. To estimate the impact of the provision of dentures to Thai older people by the Royal Project on their oral health-related quality of life. Methods. A purposive cross-sectional study of a sample of 812 subjects was conducted. The Oral Impacts on Daily Performances (OIDP) measure was used to assess the oral health-related quality of life. Results. Four groups of older people with different tooth types were studied. 216 (26.6%) had natural teeth (NT). 189 (23.3%) had natural and replaced teeth (NRT). 167 (20.6%) had below the minimum number of teeth but had no dentures (Edent) and 240 were edentate with complete dentures provided by the Royal Project (ECD) (29.6%). Overall, 36.5% had at least one oral impact. Eating was the most affected oral impact. When compared to the group with natural teeth (NT), the Edent group was significantly more likely to report having impacts on eating OR = 6.5 (3.9-10.9), speaking clearly OR = 43.7 (12.7-15.07), emotional stability OR = 16.5 (6.0-45.6), and social contacts OR = 4.6 (2.2-9.5) (p < 0.001). Conclusion. Those who are edentulous are much more likely to have an oral impact on their daily performances than those provided dentures. Provision of dentures may lead to improvement of considerable oral impacts.

  9. Estimate of Impact on the Oral Health-Related Quality of Life of Older Thai People by the Provision of Dentures through the Royal Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patcharawan Srisilapanan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To estimate the impact of the provision of dentures to Thai older people by the Royal Project on their oral health-related quality of life. Methods. A purposive cross-sectional study of a sample of 812 subjects was conducted. The Oral Impacts on Daily Performances (OIDP measure was used to assess the oral health-related quality of life. Results. Four groups of older people with different tooth types were studied. 216 (26.6% had natural teeth (NT. 189 (23.3% had natural and replaced teeth (NRT. 167 (20.6% had below the minimum number of teeth but had no dentures (Edent and 240 were edentate with complete dentures provided by the Royal Project (ECD (29.6%. Overall, 36.5% had at least one oral impact. Eating was the most affected oral impact. When compared to the group with natural teeth (NT, the Edent group was significantly more likely to report having impacts on eating OR = 6.5 (3.9–10.9, speaking clearly OR = 43.7 (12.7–15.07, emotional stability OR = 16.5 (6.0–45.6, and social contacts OR = 4.6 (2.2–9.5 (p<0.001. Conclusion. Those who are edentulous are much more likely to have an oral impact on their daily performances than those provided dentures. Provision of dentures may lead to improvement of considerable oral impacts.

  10. An estimation of intrapartum-related perinatal mortality rates for booked home births in England and Wales between 1994 and 2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, R; Dougherty, M; Whittle, M

    2008-04-01

    The objective of this study was to obtain the best estimate of intrapartum-related perinatal mortality (IPPM) rates for booked home births. A population-based cross-sectional study. England and Wales. All births in England and Wales, including home births (intended or unintended) occurring between 1994 and 2003. All IPPM data were derived from the Confidential Enquiry into Maternal and Child Health. Denominators were derived by using unintended home births and transfer rates from home to hospital, from previous studies, with sensitivity analyses. IPPM rates were calculated for the three following subgroups: (a) the completed home birth group, (b) the transferred group and (c) the unintended home birth group. IPPM rate. The overall IPPM rate for England and Wales improved between 1994 and 2003. However, data to obtain a precise estimate of IPPM rate for booked home birth were not available. The average IPPM rate for all births in the study period was 0.79 per 1000 births (95% CI 0.77-0.81), and the estimated IPPM rate for booked home births was 1.28 or 0.74 per 1000 births, depending on the method of calculation (range 0.49-1.47). The IPPM rates for the completed home birth group appeared to be lower throughout the study period compared with the unintended home birth groups. Those women who had booked for a home birth, but later needed to transfer their care for a hospital birth, appeared to have the highest risk of IPPM in the study period. The results of this study need to be interpreted with caution due to inconsistencies occurring in the recorded data. However, the data do highlight two important features. First, they suggest that IPPM rates for home births do not appear to have improved over the study period examined, even though rates did so overall. Second, although the women who booked for home births and had their babies at home seemed to have a generally low IPPM rate, those who required their care to be transferred to hospital did not. Women who book for

  11. Non conventional empirical relations for estimating compressional-wave sonic logs; Relacoes empiricas nao-convencionais para estimativa de perfis sonicos de ondas compressionais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Augusto, Fabricio de O.A. [Observatorio Nacional (ON), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Curso de Pos-graduacao em Geofisica; Martins, Jorge L. [Observatorio Nacional (ON), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao da Area de Geofisica

    2008-07-01

    We apply least-squares regression using non-conventional empirical relations for estimating compressional-wave sonic logs (DTP). We investigate the applicability of five expressions which involve exponential functions, with arguments representing effective porosity ({phi}e) estimated from density logs, shaliness (V{sub clay}) estimated from gamma-ray logs (GR) and electrical resistivity (R{sub ILD}) measured by the deep-induction logging tool (ILD). First, we use such physical properties individually, i.e., as the dependence parameter of compressional-wave velocities (V{sub P}), in the argument of the exponential function; then, we combine some of these properties in order to simulate the known interdependency among them. In order to test our methodology, we adopt two vertical wells - hereafter named Poco-A and Poco-B - from 'Campo Escola Namorado', with information of all geophysical well logs necessary to our study in the turbiditic interval from 2950 e 3150 m. In Poco-A, the best fit obtained through least squares for compressional-wave velocities was V{sub P} = 4.657 exp[.1.488 {phi}e - 0.986 V{sub clay} + 5.022 {phi}e V{sub clay} ], with correlation coefficient r = 0.81; in Poco-B, we found V{sub P} 4.209 exp[- 0.658 {phi}e - 0.430 V{sub clay} + 6.620 x 10.4 R{sub ILD} - 0.035 {phi}e V{sub clay} R{sub ILD}], with correlation coefficient r = 0.52. These two non-conventional empirical models take into account the effects of the interdependence between effective porosity, shaliness and electrical resistivity of the rock on Vp (i.e., they incorporate non-linear effects), becoming alternative models for predicting the sonic logs that are incomplete and/or absent in the data set 'Campo Escola Namorado'. (author)

  12. Distribution of health-related social surplus in pharmaceuticals: an estimation of consumer and producer surplus in the management of high blood lipids and COPD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Refoios Camejo, Rodrigo; Camejo, Rodrigo Refoios; McGrath, Clare; Miraldo, Marisa; Rutten, Frans

    2014-05-01

    Following suggestions that developers should be allowed to capture a defined share of the total value generated by their technologies, the amount of surplus accruing to the pharmaceutical industry has become an important concept when discussing policies to encourage innovation in healthcare. Observational clinical and market data spanning over a period of 20 years were applied in order to estimate the social surplus generated by pharmaceuticals used in the management of high cholesterol and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The distribution of social surplus between consumers and producers was also computed and the dynamics of rent extraction examined. Health-related social surplus increased consistently over time for both disease areas, mostly due to the launch of more effective technologies and a greater number of patients being treated for the conditions. However, the growth rate of social surplus differed for each disease and dissimilar patterns of distribution between consumer and producer surplus emerged across the years. For lipid-lowering therapies, yearly consumer surplus reaches 85 % of total health-related social surplus after the loss of exclusivity of major molecules, whilst for COPD it ranges from 54 to 69 %. Average producer surplus is approximately 25 % of total health-related social surplus in the lipid-lowering market between 1990 and 2010, and 37 % for COPD between 2001 and 2010. The share of surplus captured by non-innovative generic producers also varies differently across periods for both markets, reaching 11.12 % in the case of lipid-lowering therapies but just 1.55 % in the case of COPD. A considerable amount of the value may be recouped by consumers only towards the end of the lifecycle. Elements affecting the distribution of social surplus vary across disease areas and include the market pricing structure and the pattern of clinical effectiveness observed over time. The application of a longer-term disease specific perspective

  13. Estimated incidence of cardiovascular complications related to type 2 diabetes in Mexico using the UKPDS outcome model and a population-based survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aguilar-Salinas Carlos A

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To estimate the incidence of complications, life expectancy and diabetes related mortality in the Mexican diabetic population over the next two decades using data from a nation-wide, population based survey and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS outcome model Methods The cohort included all patients with type 2 diabetes evaluated during the National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANut 2006. ENSANut is a probabilistic multistage stratified survey whose aim was to measure the prevalence of chronic diseases. A total of 47,152 households were visited. Results are shown stratified by gender, time since diagnosis (> or ≤ to 10 years and age at the time of diagnosis (> or ≤ 40 years. Results The prevalence of diabetes in our cohort was 14.4%. The predicted 20 year-incidence for chronic complications per 1000 individuals are: ischemic heart disease 112, myocardial infarction 260, heart failure 113, stroke 101, and amputation 62. Furthermore, 539 per 1000 patients will have a diabetes-related premature death. The average life expectancy for the diabetic population is 10.9 years (95%CI 10.7-11.2; this decreases to 8.3 years after adjusting for quality of life (CI95% 8.1-8.5. Male sex and cases diagnosed after age 40 have the highest risk for developing at least one major complication during the next 20 years. Conclusions Based on the current clinical profile of Mexican patients with diabetes, the burden of disease related complications will be tremendous over the next two decades.

  14. Accuracy of Estimation of Graft Size for Living-Related Liver Transplantation: First Results of a Semi-Automated Interactive Software for CT-Volumetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokry, Theresa; Bellemann, Nadine; Müller, Dirk; Lorenzo Bermejo, Justo; Klauß, Miriam; Stampfl, Ulrike; Radeleff, Boris; Schemmer, Peter; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Sommer, Christof-Matthias

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To evaluate accuracy of estimated graft size for living-related liver transplantation using a semi-automated interactive software for CT-volumetry. Materials and Methods Sixteen donors for living-related liver transplantation (11 male; mean age: 38.2±9.6 years) underwent contrast-enhanced CT prior to graft removal. CT-volumetry was performed using a semi-automated interactive software (P), and compared with a manual commercial software (TR). For P, liver volumes were provided either with or without vessels. For TR, liver volumes were provided always with vessels. Intraoperative weight served as reference standard. Major study goals included analyses of volumes using absolute numbers, linear regression analyses and inter-observer agreements. Minor study goals included the description of the software workflow: degree of manual correction, speed for completion, and overall intuitiveness using five-point Likert scales: 1–markedly lower/faster/higher for P compared with TR, 2–slightly lower/faster/higher for P compared with TR, 3–identical for P and TR, 4–slightly lower/faster/higher for TR compared with P, and 5–markedly lower/faster/higher for TR compared with P. Results Liver segments II/III, II–IV and V–VIII served in 6, 3, and 7 donors as transplanted liver segments. Volumes were 642.9±368.8 ml for TR with vessels, 623.8±349.1 ml for P with vessels, and 605.2±345.8 ml for P without vessels (Pvolumetry performed with P can predict accurately graft size for living-related liver transplantation while improving workflow compared with TR. PMID:25330198

  15. Application of elastic wave dispersion relations to estimate thermal properties of nanoscale wires and tubes of varying wall thickness and diameter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bifano, Michael F P; Kaul, Pankaj B; Prakash, Vikas

    2010-01-01

    This paper reports dependency of specific heat and ballistic thermal conductance on cross-sectional geometry (tube versus rod) and size (i.e., diameter and wall thickness), in free-standing isotropic non-metallic crystalline nanostructures. The analysis is performed using dispersion relations found by numerically solving the Pochhammer-Chree frequency equation for a tube. Estimates for the allowable phonon dispersion relations within the crystal lattice are obtained by modifying the elastic acoustic dispersion relations so as to account for the discrete nature of the material's crystal lattice. These phonon dispersion relations are then used to evaluate the specific heat and ballistic thermal conductance in the nanostructures as a function of the nanostructure geometry and size. Two major results are revealed in the analysis: increasing the outer diameter of a nanotube while keeping the ratio of the inner to outer tube radius (γ) fixed increases the total number of available phonon modes capable of thermal population. Secondly, decreasing the wall thickness of a nanotube (i.e., increasing γ) while keeping its outer diameter fixed, results in a drastic decrease in the available phonon mode density and a reduction in the frequency of the longitudinal and flexural acoustic phonon modes in the nanostructure. The dependency of the nanostructure's specific heat on temperature indicates 1D, 2D, and 3D geometric phonon confinement regimes. Transition temperatures for each phonon confinement regime are shown to depend on both the nanostructure's wall thickness and outer radius. Compared to nanowires (γ = 0), the frequency reduction of acoustic phonon modes in thinner walled nanotubes (γ = 0.96) is shown to elevate the ballistic thermal conductance of the thin-walled nanotube between 0.2 and 150 K. At 20 K, the ballistic thermal conductance of the thin-walled nanotube (γ = 0.96) becomes 300% greater than that of a solid nanowire. For temperatures above 150 K, the trend

  16. REML/BLUP and sequential path analysis in estimating genotypic values and interrelationships among simple maize grain yield-related traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivoto, T; Nardino, M; Carvalho, I R; Follmann, D N; Ferrari, M; Szareski, V J; de Pelegrin, A J; de Souza, V Q

    2017-03-22

    Methodologies using restricted maximum likelihood/best linear unbiased prediction (REML/BLUP) in combination with sequential path analysis in maize are still limited in the literature. Therefore, the aims of this study were: i) to use REML/BLUP-based procedures in order to estimate variance components, genetic parameters, and genotypic values of simple maize hybrids, and ii) to fit stepwise regressions considering genotypic values to form a path diagram with multi-order predictors and minimum multicollinearity that explains the relationships of cause and effect among grain yield-related traits. Fifteen commercial simple maize hybrids were evaluated in multi-environment trials in a randomized complete block design with four replications. The environmental variance (78.80%) and genotype-vs-environment variance (20.83%) accounted for more than 99% of the phenotypic variance of grain yield, which difficult the direct selection of breeders for this trait. The sequential path analysis model allowed the selection of traits with high explanatory power and minimum multicollinearity, resulting in models with elevated fit (R 2 > 0.9 and ε analysis is effective in the evaluation of maize-breeding trials.

  17. Estimate of the uncertainties in the relative risk of secondary malignant neoplasms following proton therapy and intensity-modulated photon therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fontenot, Jonas D; Bloch, Charles; Followill, David; Titt, Uwe; Newhauser, Wayne D

    2010-01-01

    Theoretical calculations have shown that proton therapy can reduce the incidence of radiation-induced secondary malignant neoplasms (SMN) compared with photon therapy for patients with prostate cancer. However, the uncertainties associated with calculations of SMN risk had not been assessed. The objective of this study was to quantify the uncertainties in projected risks of secondary cancer following contemporary proton and photon radiotherapies for prostate cancer. We performed a rigorous propagation of errors and several sensitivity tests to estimate the uncertainty in the ratio of relative risk (RRR) due to the largest contributors to the uncertainty: the radiation weighting factor for neutrons, the dose-response model for radiation carcinogenesis and interpatient variations in absorbed dose. The interval of values for the radiation weighting factor for neutrons and the dose-response model were derived from the literature, while interpatient variations in absorbed dose were taken from actual patient data. The influence of each parameter on a baseline RRR value was quantified. Our analysis revealed that the calculated RRR was insensitive to the largest contributors to the uncertainty. Uncertainties in the radiation weighting factor for neutrons, the shape of the dose-risk model and interpatient variations in therapeutic and stray doses introduced a total uncertainty of 33% to the baseline RRR calculation.

  18. Using a detailed inventory of a large wastewater treatment plant to estimate the relative importance of construction to the overall environmental impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morera, Serni; Corominas, Lluís; Rigola, Miquel; Poch, Manel; Comas, Joaquim

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this work is to quantify the relative contribution to the overall environmental impact of the construction phase compared to the operational phase for a large conventional activated sludge wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). To estimate these environmental impacts, a systematic procedure was designed to obtain the detailed Life Cycle Inventories (LCI) for civil works and equipment, taking as starting point the construction project budget and the list of equipment installed at the Girona WWTP, which are the most reliable information sources of materials and resources used during the construction phase. A detailed inventory is conducted by including 45 materials for civil works and 1,240 devices for the equipment. For most of the impact categories and different life spans of the WWTP, the contribution of the construction phase to the overall burden is higher than 5% and, especially for metal depletion, the impact of construction reaches 63%. When comparing to the WWTP inventories available in Ecoinvent the share of construction obtained in this work is about 3 times smaller for climate change and twice higher for metal depletion. Concrete and reinforcing steel are the materials with the highest contribution to the civil works phase and motors, pumps and mobile and transport equipment are also key equipment to consider during life cycle inventories of WWTPs. Additional robust inventories for similar WWTP can leverage this work by applying the factors (kg of materials and energy per m 3 of treated water) and guidance provided. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Catastrophic healthcare expenditure and poverty related to out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in Bangladesh-an estimation of financial risk protection of universal health coverage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Jahangir A M; Ahmed, Sayem; Evans, Timothy G

    2017-10-01

    The Sustainable Development Goals target to achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC), including financial risk protection (FRP) among other dimensions. There are four indicators of FRP, namely incidence of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE), mean positive catastrophic overshoot, incidence of impoverishment and increase in the depth of poverty occur for high out-of-pocket (OOP) healthcare spending. OOP spending is the major payment strategy for healthcare in most low-and-middle-income countries, such as Bangladesh. Large and unpredictable health payments can expose households to substantial financial risk and, at their most extreme, can result in poverty. The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of OOP spending on CHE and poverty, i.e. status of FRP for UHC in Bangladesh. A nationally representative Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2010 was used to determine household consumption expenditure and health-related spending in the last 30 days. Mean CHE headcount and its concentration indices (CI) were calculated. The propensity of facing CHE for households was predicted by demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. The poverty headcount was estimated using 'total household consumption expenditure' and such expenditure without OOP payments for health in comparison with the poverty-line measured by cost of basic need. In absolute values, a pro-rich distribution of OOP payment for healthcare was found in urban and rural Bangladesh. At the 10%-threshold level, in total 14.2% of households faced CHE with 1.9% overshoot. 16.5% of the poorest and 9.2% of the richest households faced CHE. An overall pro-poor distribution was found for CHE (CI = -0.064) in both urban and rural households, while the former had higher CHE incidences. The poverty headcount increased by 3.5% (5.1 million individuals) due to OOP payments. Reliance on OOP payments for healthcare in Bangladesh should be reduced for poverty alleviation in urban and rural Bangladesh in order to

  20. Environmental contamination with Toxocara eggs: a quantitative approach to estimate the relative contributions of dogs, cats and foxes, and to assess the efficacy of advised interventions in dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijsse, Rolf; Mughini-Gras, Lapo; Wagenaar, Jaap A; Franssen, Frits; Ploeger, Harm W

    2015-07-28

    Environmental contamination with Toxocara eggs is considered the main source of human toxocariasis. The contribution of different groups of hosts to this contamination is largely unknown. Current deworming advices focus mainly on dogs. However, controversy exists about blind deworming regimens for >6-month-old dogs, as most of them do not actually shed Toxocara eggs. We aim to estimate the contribution of different non-juvenile hosts to the environmental Toxocara egg contamination and to assess the effects of different Toxocara-reducing interventions for dogs. A stochastic model was developed to quantify the relative contribution to the environmental contamination with Toxocara eggs of household dogs, household cats, stray cats, and foxes, all older than 6 months in areas with varying urbanization degrees. The model was built upon an existing model developed by Morgan et al. (2013). We used both original and published data on host density, prevalence and intensity of infection, coprophagic behaviour, faeces disposal by owners, and cats' outdoor access. Scenario analyses were performed to assess the expected reduction in dogs' egg output according to different deworming regimens and faeces clean-up compliances. Estimates referred to the Netherlands, a country free of stray dogs. Household dogs accounted for 39% of the overall egg output of >6-month-old hosts in the Netherlands, followed by stray cats (27%), household cats (19%), and foxes (15%). In urban areas, egg output was dominated by stray cats (81%). Intervention scenarios revealed that only with a high compliance (90%) to the four times a year deworming advice, dogs' contribution would drop from 39 to 28%. Alternatively, when 50% of owners would always remove their dogs' faeces, dogs' contribution would drop to 20%. Among final hosts of Toxocara older than 6 months, dogs are the main contributors to the environmental egg contamination, though cats in total (i.e. both owned and stray) transcend this

  1. Accuracy of estimation of graft size for living-related liver transplantation: first results of a semi-automated interactive software for CT-volumetry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theresa Mokry

    Full Text Available To evaluate accuracy of estimated graft size for living-related liver transplantation using a semi-automated interactive software for CT-volumetry.Sixteen donors for living-related liver transplantation (11 male; mean age: 38.2±9.6 years underwent contrast-enhanced CT prior to graft removal. CT-volumetry was performed using a semi-automated interactive software (P, and compared with a manual commercial software (TR. For P, liver volumes were provided either with or without vessels. For TR, liver volumes were provided always with vessels. Intraoperative weight served as reference standard. Major study goals included analyses of volumes using absolute numbers, linear regression analyses and inter-observer agreements. Minor study goals included the description of the software workflow: degree of manual correction, speed for completion, and overall intuitiveness using five-point Likert scales: 1--markedly lower/faster/higher for P compared with TR, 2--slightly lower/faster/higher for P compared with TR, 3--identical for P and TR, 4--slightly lower/faster/higher for TR compared with P, and 5--markedly lower/faster/higher for TR compared with P.Liver segments II/III, II-IV and V-VIII served in 6, 3, and 7 donors as transplanted liver segments. Volumes were 642.9±368.8 ml for TR with vessels, 623.8±349.1 ml for P with vessels, and 605.2±345.8 ml for P without vessels (P<0.01. Regression equations between intraoperative weights and volumes were y = 0.94x+30.1 (R2 = 0.92; P<0.001 for TR with vessels, y = 1.00x+12.0 (R2 = 0.92; P<0.001 for P with vessels, and y = 1.01x+28.0 (R2 = 0.92; P<0.001 for P without vessels. Inter-observer agreement showed a bias of 1.8 ml for TR with vessels, 5.4 ml for P with vessels, and 4.6 ml for P without vessels. For the degree of manual correction, speed for completion and overall intuitiveness, scale values were 2.6±0.8, 2.4±0.5 and 2.CT-volumetry performed with P can predict accurately graft

  2. Estimating risks of radiotherapy complications as part of informed consent: the high degree of variability between radiation oncologists may be related to experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shakespeare, Thomas Philip; Dwyer, Mary; Mukherjee, Rahul; Yeghiaian-Alvandi, Roland; Gebski, Val

    2002-01-01

    Purpose: Estimating the risks of radiotherapy (RT) toxicity is important for informed consent; however, the consistency in estimates has not been studied. This study aimed to explore the variability and factors affecting risk estimates (REs). Methods and Materials: A survey was mailed to Australian radiation oncologists, who were asked to estimate risks of RT complications given 49 clinical scenarios. The REs were assessed for association with oncologist experience, subspecialization, and private practice. Results: The REs were extremely variable, with a 50-fold median variability. The least variability (sevenfold) was for estimates of late, small intestinal perforation/obstruction after a one-third volume received 50 Gy with concurrent 5-fluorouracil (RE range 5-35%). The variation between the smallest and largest REs in 17 scenarios was ≥100-fold. The years of experience was significantly associated with REs of soft/connective-tissue toxicity (p=0.01) but inversely associated with estimates of neurologic/central nervous system toxicity (p=0.08). Ninety-six percent of respondents believed REs were important to RT practice; only 24% rated evidence to support their estimates as good. Sixty-seven percent believed national/international groups should pursue the issue further. Conclusion: Enormous variability exists in REs for normal tissue complications due to RT that is influenced by the years of experience. Risk estimation is perceived as an important issue without a good evidence base. Additional studies are strongly recommended

  3. World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards : A Structured Expert Elicitation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie H|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/072306122; Gibb, Herman J; Torgerson, Paul R; Kirk, Martyn D; Angulo, Fred J; Lake, Robin J; Speybroeck, Niko; Hoffmann, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by

  4. A cellular automata approach to estimate incident-related travel time on Interstate 66 in near real time : final contract report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    Incidents account for a large portion of all congestion and a need clearly exists for tools to predict and estimate incident effects. This study examined (1) congestion back propagation to estimate the length of the queue and travel time from upstrea...

  5. A high-resolution, 60 kyr record of the relative geomagnetic field intensity from Lake Towuti, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirana, Kartika Hajar; Bijaksana, Satria; King, John; Tamuntuan, Gerald Hendrik; Russell, James; Ngkoimani, La Ode; Dahrin, Darharta; Fajar, Silvia Jannatul

    2018-02-01

    Past changes in the Earth's magnetic field can be highlighted through reconstructions of magnetic paleointensity. Many magnetic field variation features are global, and can be used for the detailed correlation and dating of sedimentary records. On the other hand, sedimentary magnetic records also exhibit features on a regional, rather than a global scale. Therefore, the development of regional scale magnetic field reconstructions is necessary to optimize magnetic paleointensity dating. In this paper, a 60 thousand year (kyr) paleointensity record is presented, using the core TOW10-9B of Lake Towuti, located in the island of Sulawesi, Indonesia, as a part of the ongoing research towards understanding the Indonesian environmental history, and reconstructing a high-resolution regional magnetic record from dating the sediments. Located in the East Sulawesi Ophiolite Belt, the bedrock surrounding Lake Towuti consists of ultramafic rocks that render the lake sediments magnetically strong, creating challenges in the reconstruction of the paleointensity record. These sediment samples were subject to a series of magnetic measurements, followed by testing the obtained paleointensity records resulting from normalizing natural remanent magnetization (NRM) against different normalizing parameters. These paleointensity records were then compared to other regional, as well as global, records of magnetic paleointensity. The results show that for the magnetically strong Lake Towuti sediments, an anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM) is the best normalizer. A series of magnetic paleointensity excursions are observed during the last 60 kyr, including the Laschamp excursion at 40 kyr BP, that provide new information about the magnetic history and stratigraphy of the western tropical Pacific region. We conclude that the paleointensity record of Lake Towuti is reliable and in accordance with the high-quality regional and global trends.

  6. The yearly rate of Relative Thalamic Atrophy (yrRTA): a simple 2D/3D method for estimating deep gray matter atrophy in Multiple Sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menéndez-González, Manuel; Salas-Pacheco, José M; Arias-Carrión, Oscar

    2014-01-01

    Despite a strong correlation to outcome, the measurement of gray matter (GM) atrophy is not being used in daily clinical practice as a prognostic factor and monitor the effect of treatments in Multiple Sclerosis (MS). This is mainly because the volumetric methods available to date are sophisticated and difficult to implement for routine use in most hospitals. In addition, the meanings of raw results from volumetric studies on regions of interest are not always easy to understand. Thus, there is a huge need of a methodology suitable to be applied in daily clinical practice in order to estimate GM atrophy in a convenient and comprehensive way. Given the thalamus is the brain structure found to be more consistently implied in MS both in terms of extent of atrophy and in terms of prognostic value, we propose a solution based in this structure. In particular, we propose to compare the extent of thalamus atrophy with the extent of unspecific, global brain atrophy, represented by ventricular enlargement. We name this ratio the "yearly rate of Relative Thalamic Atrophy" (yrRTA). In this report we aim to describe the concept of yrRTA and the guidelines for computing it under 2D and 3D approaches and explain the rationale behind this method. We have also conducted a very short crossectional retrospective study to proof the concept of yrRTA. However, we do not seek to describe here the validity of this parameter since these researches are being conducted currently and results will be addressed in future publications.

  7. The yearly rate of Relative Thalamic Atrophy (yrRTA: a simple 2D/3D method for estimating deep gray matter atrophy in Multiple Sclerosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel eMenéndez-González

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Despite a strong correlation to outcome, the measurement of gray matter (GM atrophy is not being used in daily clinical practice as a prognostic factor and monitor the effect of treatments in Multiple Sclerosis (MS. This is mainly because the volumetric methods available to date are sophisticated and difficult to implement for routine use in most hospitals. In addition, the meaning of raw results from volumetric studies on regions of interest are not always easy to understand. Thus, there is a huge need of a methodology suitable to be applied in daily clinical practice in order to estimate GM atrophy in a convenient and comprehensive way. Given the thalamus is the brain structure found to be more consistently implied in MS both in terms of extent of atrophy and in terms of prognostic value, we propose a solution based in this structure. In particular, we propose to compare the extent of thalamus atrophy (TA with the extent of unspecific, global brain atrophy, represented by ventricular enlargement. We name this ratio the yearly rate of Relative Thalamic Atrophy (yrRTA. In this report we aim to describe the concept of yrRTA and the guidelines for computing it under 2D and 3D approaches and explain the rationale behind this method. We have also conducted a very short crossectional retrospective study to proof the concept of yrRTA. However, we do not seek to describe here the validity of this parameter since these researches are being conducted currently and results will be addressed in future publications.

  8. Hierarchy of the Russian Church and Relations between the Horde and the Russian Church during the Tatar-Mongol Invasion of 1237–1240 according to Contemporary Estimates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.R. Galimov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The author analyzes activities of the Russian church and its supreme hierarchs during the most active period of the Russian-Horde conflict (1237–1240. Materials: Old Russian chronicles and tales remain the main source of information on the activities of the church hierarchy during the military-political confrontation between Russian principalities and the Horde. As it has been shown by studies of recent years, complex of scenes depicting the struggle against the invaders is not so clear, as it was considered to be in the national historiography for many decades. This observation allows a new reading of the reports on church life in Rus’ during the most acute phase of Russian-Horde war. Results and novelty of the research: Events of 1237–1240 led to a fundamental change in the existing situation in Rus’. This concerned not only the power but also religious institutions. The results of this study suggest that behavior of church hierarchs became the main cause of changes in the socio-political and economic spheres of ancient Russian ecclesiastical organization. The church accepted the rule of the Horde over Rus’ and the Horde benefits and awards reinforced the higher clergy’s loyalty to the khans’ power. This circumstance required the church to declare its stance in respect to the new power. As a result, the need for accepting existing relations between the church and the Horde found its justification in the concept of “Plagues of God”. Such an ideological justification removed conquerors’ responsibility for the ills that befell Rus’ and justified contacts between the church and the Horde. Old Russian sources do not provide direct estimates of the prelates’ behavior. But reading of the chronicle reports leave the impression that contemporaries assessed the behavior of the church quite ambiguously and probably reprehensibly.

  9. Contemporary risk estimates of three HbA1c variables in relation to heart failure following diagnosis of type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skrtic, Stanko; Cabrera, Claudia; Olsson, Marita; Schnecke, Volker; Lind, Marcus

    2017-03-01

    We evaluated the association between glycaemic control and the risk of heart failure (HF) in a contemporary cohort of persons followed after diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Persons with T2D diagnosed between 1998 and 2012 were retrieved from the Clinical Practice Research Data Link in the UK and followed from diagnosis until the event of HF, mortality, drop out from the database due to any other reason, or the end of the study on 1 July 2015. The association between each of three different haemoglobin A 1C (HbA 1c ) metrics and HF was estimated using adjusted proportional hazard models. In the overall cohort (n=94 332), the increased risk for HF per 1% (10 mmol/mol) increase in HbA 1c was 1.15 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.18) for updated mean HbA 1c , and 1.06 (1.04 to 1.07) and 1.06 (1.04 to 1.08) for baseline HbA 1c and updated latest HbA 1c , respectively. When categorised, the hazard risk (HR) for the updated mean HbA 1c in relation to HF became higher than for baseline and updated latest HbA 1c above HbA 1c levels of 9%, but did not differ at lower HbA 1c levels. The updated latest variable showed an increased risk for HbA 1c <6% (42 mmol/mol) of 1.16 (1.07 to 1.25), relative category 6-7%, while the HRs for updated mean and baseline HbA 1c showed no such J-shaped pattern. Hyperglycaemia is still a risk factor for HF in persons with T2D of similar magnitude as in earlier cohorts. Such a relationship exists for current glycaemic levels, at diagnosis and the overall level but the pattern differs for these variables. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  10. Estimation of future levels and changes in profitability: The effect of the relative position of the firm in its industry and the operating-financing disaggregation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borja Amor-Tapia

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we examine how the relative position of a firm’s Return on Equity (ROE in industries affects the predictability of the next-year ROE levels, and the ROE changes from year to year. Using Nissim and Penman breakdown into operating and financing drivers, the significant role of the industry factor is established, although changes in signs suggest subtle non-linear relations in the drivers. Our study avoids problems originating from negative signs by analyzing sorts and by making new regressions with disaggregated second-order drivers by signs. This way, our results provide evidence of some different patterns in the influence of the first-level drivers of ROE (the operating factor and the financing factor, and the second-level drivers (profit margin, asset turnover, leverage and return spread on future profitability, depending on the industry spread. The results on the role of contextual factors to improve the estimation of future profitability remain consistent for small and large firms, although adding some nuances En este trabajo examinamos si la posición relativa del ROE de la empresa en el sector afecta a la estimación del nivel de ROE en el a˜no posterior, y a la estimación de su variación. Empleando el desglose operativo-financiero de Nissim y Penman, encontramos que el factor sectorial es significativo, aunque las variaciones de los signos sugieren la presencia de relaciones no lineales. Nuestro trabajo evita los problemas generados por los signos negativos en los ratios al emplear cuantiles y realizar regresiones independientes para los diferentes signos que toman las variables. De esta forma, los resultados muestran diferentes patrones en el impacto de los inductores del ROE de primer nivel (los factores operativo y financiero y de segundo nivel (margen de resultados, rotaciones de los activos, endeudamiento y diferencial de rentabilidad sobre la rentabilidad futura, dependiendo del diferencial de rentabilidad con

  11. Experimental and numerical simulation of the acquisition of chemical remanent magnetization and the Thellier procedure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shcherbakov, V. P.; Sycheva, N. K.; Gribov, S. K.

    2017-09-01

    The results of the Thellier-Coe experiments on paleointensity determination on the samples which contain chemical remanent magnetization (CRM) created by thermal annealing of titanomagnetites are reported. The results of the experiments are compared with the theoretical notions. For this purpose, Monte Carlo simulation of the process of CRM acquisition in the system of single-domain interacting particles was carried out; the paleointensity determination method based on the Thellier-Coe procedure was modeled; and the degree of paleointensity underestimation was quantitatively estimated based on the experimental data and on the numerical results. Both the experimental investigations and computer modeling suggest the following main conclusion: all the Arai-Nagata diagrams for CRM in the high-temperature area (in some cases up to the Curie temperature T c) contain a relatively long quasi-linear interval on which it is possible to estimate the slope coefficient k and, therefore, the paleointensity. Hence, if chemical magnetization (or remagnetization) took place in the course of the magnetomineralogical transformations of titanomagnetite- bearing igneous rocks during long-lasting cooling or during repeated heatings, it can lead to incorrect results in determining the intensity of the geomagnetic field in the geological past.

  12. [Estimation of the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after world war II: relation with pandemics and the vaccination system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohmi, Kenichi; Marui, Eiji

    2011-10-01

    To estimate the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after World War II, and to reexamine the relationship between the excess death and the vaccination system in Japan. Using the Japanese national vital statistics data for 1952-2009, we specified months with influenza epidemics, monthly mortality rates and the seasonal index for 1952-74 and for 1975-2009. Then we calculated excess deaths of each month from the observed number of deaths and the 95% range of expected deaths. Lastly we calculated age-adjusted excess death rates using the 1985 model population of Japan. The total number of excess deaths for 1952-2009 was 687,279 (95% range, 384,149-970,468), 12,058 (95% range, 6,739-17,026) per year. The total number of excess deaths in 6 pandemic years of 1957-58, 58-59, 1968-69, 69-70, 77-78 and 78-79, was 95,904, while that in 51 'non-pandemic' years was 591,376, 6.17 fold larger than pandemic years. The average number of excess deaths for pandemic years was 23,976, nearly equal to that for 'non-pandemic' years, 23,655. At the beginning of pandemics, 1957-58, 1968-69, 1969-70, the proportion of those aged pandemic' years. In the 1970s and 1980s, when the vaccination program for schoolchildren was mandatory in Japan on the basis of the "Fukumi thesis", age-adjusted average excess mortality rates were relatively low, with an average of 6.17 per hundred thousand. In the 1990s, when group vaccination was discontinued, age-adjusted excess mortality rose up to 9.42, only to drop again to 2.04 when influenza vaccination was made available to the elderly in the 2000s, suggesting that the vaccination of Japanese children prevented excess deaths from influenza pandemics and epidemics. Moreover, in the age group under 65, average excess mortality rates were low in the 1970s and 1980s rather than in the 2000s, which shows that the "Social Defensive" schoolchildren vaccination program in the 1970s and 1980s was more effective than the

  13. Comparison of additive (absolute) risk projection models and multiplicative (relative) risk projection models in estimating radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

    1990-01-01

    Lifetime cancer risk estimates depend on risk projection models. While the increasing lengths of follow-up observation periods of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bring about changes in cancer risk estimates, the validity of the two risk projection models, the additive risk projection model (AR) and multiplicative risk projection model (MR), comes into question. This paper compares the lifetime risk or loss of life-expectancy between the two projection models on the basis of BEIR-III report or recently published RERF report. With Japanese cancer statistics the estimates of MR were greater than those of AR, but a reversal of these results was seen when the cancer hazard function for India was used. When we investigated the validity of the two projection models using epidemiological human data and animal data, the results suggested that MR was superior to AR with respect to temporal change, but there was little evidence to support its validity. (author)

  14. World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht

    2016-01-01

    transmission routes. These findings are essential for global burden of FBD estimates. While gaps exist, we believe the estimates presented here are the best current source of guidance to support decision makers when allocating resources for control and intervention, and for future research initiatives......., seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge...

  15. The use of ATSR active fire counts for estimating relative patterns of biomass burning - A study from the boreal forest region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kasischke, Eric S.; Hewson, Jennifer H.; Stocks, Brian; van der Werf, Guido; Randerson, James T.

    2003-01-01

    Satellite fire products have the potential to construct inter-annual time series of fire activity, but estimating area burned requires considering biases introduced by orbiting geometry, fire behavior, and the presence of clouds and smoke. Here we evaluated the performance of fire counts from the

  16. Estimation of infarct size by myocardial emission computed tomography with thallium-201 and its relation to creatine kinase-MB release after myocardial infarction in man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamaki, S.; Nakajima, H.; Murakami, T.

    1982-01-01

    Emission computed tomography (ECT) for thallium-201 ( 201 Tl) myocardial imaging was evaluated in estimating infarct size (IS). In 18 patients in whom IS was estimated enzymatically at the time of the acute episode, planar 201 Tl perfusion scintigraphy and ECT with a rotating gamma camera were performed 4 weeks after the first myocardial infarction. From the size of 201 Tl perfusion defects, the infarct area in planar images and the infarct volume in reconsturcted ECT images were measured by computerized planimetry. When scintigraphic IS was compared with the accumulated creatine kinase-MB isoenzyme release (CK-MBr), infarct volume determined from ECT correlated closely with CK-MBr (r=0.89), whereas infarct area measured from planar images correlated less satisfactorily with the enzymatic IS (for an average infarct area from three views, r=0.69; for the largest infarct area, r=0.73). Although conventional scintigraphic evaluation is useful for detecting and localizing infarction, quantification of ischemic injury with this two-dimensional technique has a significant inherent limitation. The ECT approach can provide a more accurate three-dimensional quantitative estimate of infarction, and can corroborate the enzymatic estimate of IS

  17. Estimation of infarct size by myocardial emission computed tomography with 201Tl and its relation to creatine kinase-MB release after myocardial infarction in man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamaki, S.; Nakajima, H.; Murakami, T.

    1982-01-01

    We evaluated emission computed tomography (ECT) 201 Tl myocardial imaging in estimating infarct size (IS). In 18 patients in whom IS was estimated enzymatically at the time of the acute episode, planar 201 Tl perfusion scintigraphy and ECT with a rotating gamma camera were performed 4 weeks after the first myocardial infarction. From the size of 201 Tl perfusion defects, the infarct area in planar images and the infarct volume in reconstructed ECT images were measured by computerized planimetry. When scintigraphic IS was compared with the accumulated creatine kinase-MB isoenzyme release (CK-MBr), infarct volume determined from ECT correlated closely with CK-MBr (r . 0.89), whereas infarct area measured from planar images correlated less satisfactorily with the enzymatic IS (for an average infarct area from three views, r . 0.69; for the largest infarct area, r . 0.73). Although conventional scintigraphic evaluation is useful for detecting and localizing infarction, quantification of ischemic injury with this two-dimensional technique has a significant inherent limitation. The ECT approach can provide a more accurate three-dimensional quantitative estimate of infarction, and can corroborate the enzymatic estimate of IS

  18. Estimating sensitivity of the Kato-Katz technique for the diagnosis of Schistosoma mansoni and hookworm in relation to infection intensity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Bärenbold

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The Kato-Katz technique is the most widely used diagnostic method in epidemiologic surveys and drug efficacy trials pertaining to intestinal schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis. However, the sensitivity of the technique is low, particularly for the detection of light-intensity helminth infections. Examination of multiple stool samples reduces the diagnostic error; yet, most studies rely on a single Kato-Katz thick smear, thus underestimating infection prevalence. We present a model which estimates the sensitivity of the Kato-Katz technique in Schistosoma mansoni and hookworm, as a function of infection intensity for repeated stool sampling and provide estimates of the age-dependent 'true' prevalence. We find that the sensitivity for S. mansoni diagnosis is dominated by missed light infections, which have a low probability to be diagnosed correctly even through repeated sampling. The overall sensitivity strongly depends on the mean infection intensity. In particular at an intensity of 100 eggs per gram of stool (EPG, we estimate a sensitivity of 50% and 80% for one and two samples, respectively. At an infection intensity of 300 EPG, we estimate a sensitivity of 62% for one sample and 90% for two samples. The sensitivity for hookworm diagnosis is dominated by day-to-day variation with typical values for one, two, three, and four samples equal to 50%, 75%, 85%, and 95%, respectively, while it is only weakly dependent on the mean infection intensity in the population. We recommend taking at least two samples and estimate the 'true' prevalence of S. mansoni considering the dependence of the sensitivity on the mean infection intensity and the 'true' hookworm prevalence by taking into account the sensitivity given in the current study.

  19. Relative effect potency estimates of dioxin-like activity for dioxins, furans, and dioxin-like PCBs in adults based on cytochrome P450 1A1 and 1B1 gene expression in blood

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wimmerová, Soňa; van den Berg, Martin; Chovancová, Jana; Patayová, Henrieta; Jusko, Todd A; van Duursen, Majorie B M; Palkovičová Murínová, Ľubica; Canton, Rocio F; van Ede, Karin I; Trnovec, Tomáš

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In the risk assessment of PCDDs, PCDFs, and dioxin-like (DL) PCBs, regulatory authorities support the use of the toxic equivalency factor (TEF)-scheme derived from a heterogeneous data set of the relative effect potency (REPs) estimates. OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine REPs for

  20. Statistical significant change versus relevant or important change in (quasi) experimental design : some conceptual and methodological problems in estimating magnitude of intervention-related change in health services research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Middel, Berrie; van Sonderen, Eric

    2002-01-01

    This paper aims to identify problems in estimating and the interpretation of the magnitude of intervention-related change over time or responsiveness assessed with health outcome measures. Responsiveness is a problematic construct and there is no consensus on how to quantify the appropriate index to

  1. Estimated Costs of U.S. Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and of Other Activities Related to the War on Terrorism

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sunshine, Robert A

    2007-01-01

    ...) has tabulated the funding provided through July 2007 for military and diplomatic operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, and for other activities related to the war on terrorism, as well as for related...

  2. Frictional Heat Generation and Slip Duration Estimated From Micro-fault in an Exhumed Accretionary Complex and Their Relations to the Scaling Law for Slow Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, Y.; Morita, K.; Okubo, M.; Hamada, Y.; Lin, W.; Hirose, T.; Kitamura, M.

    2015-12-01

    Fault motion has been estimated by diffusion pattern of frictional heating recorded in geology (e.g., Fulton et al., 2012). The same record in deeper subduction plate interface can be observed from micro-faults in an exhumed accretionary complex. In this study, we focused on a micro-fault within the Cretaceous Shimanto Belt, SW Japan to estimate fault motion from the frictional heating diffusion pattern. A carbonaceous material concentrated layer (CMCL) with ~2m of thickness is observed in study area. Some micro-faults cut the CMCL. Thickness of a fault is about 3.7mm. Injection veins and dilatant fractures were observed in thin sections, suggesting that the high fluid pressure was existed. Samples with 10cm long were collected to measure distribution of vitrinite reflectance (Ro) as a function of distance from the center of micro-fault. Ro of host rock was ~1.0%. Diffusion pattern was detected decreasing in Ro from ~1.2%-~1.1%. Characteristic diffusion distance is ~4-~9cm. We conducted grid search to find the optimal frictional heat generation per unit area (Q, the product of friction coefficient, normal stress and slip velocity) and slip duration (t) to fit the diffusion pattern. Thermal diffusivity (0.98*10-8m2/s) and thermal conductivity (2.0 W/mK) were measured. In the result, 2000-2500J/m2 of Q and 63000-126000s of t were estimated. Moment magnitudes (M0) of slow earthquakes (slow EQs) follow a scaling law with slip duration and its dimension is different from that for normal earthquakes (normal EQ) (Ide et al., 2007). The slip duration estimated in this study (~104-~105s) consistent with 4-5 of M0, never fit to the scaling law for normal EQ. Heat generation can be inverted from 4-5 of M0, corresponding with ~108-~1011J, which is consistent with rupture area of 105-108m2 in this study. The comparisons in heat generation and slip duration between geological measurements and geophysical remote observations give us the estimation of rupture area, M0, and

  3. Modeling and E-M estimation of haplotype-specific relative risks from genotype data for a case-control study of unrelated individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stram, Daniel O; Leigh Pearce, Celeste; Bretsky, Phillip; Freedman, Matthew; Hirschhorn, Joel N; Altshuler, David; Kolonel, Laurence N; Henderson, Brian E; Thomas, Duncan C

    2003-01-01

    The US National Cancer Institute has recently sponsored the formation of a Cohort Consortium (http://2002.cancer.gov/scpgenes.htm) to facilitate the pooling of data on very large numbers of people, concerning the effects of genes and environment on cancer incidence. One likely goal of these efforts will be generate a large population-based case-control series for which a number of candidate genes will be investigated using SNP haplotype as well as genotype analysis. The goal of this paper is to outline the issues involved in choosing a method of estimating haplotype-specific risk estimates for such data that is technically appropriate and yet attractive to epidemiologists who are already comfortable with odds ratios and logistic regression. Our interest is to develop and evaluate extensions of methods, based on haplotype imputation, that have been recently described (Schaid et al., Am J Hum Genet, 2002, and Zaykin et al., Hum Hered, 2002) as providing score tests of the null hypothesis of no effect of SNP haplotypes upon risk, which may be used for more complex tasks, such as providing confidence intervals, and tests of equivalence of haplotype-specific risks in two or more separate populations. In order to do so we (1) develop a cohort approach towards odds ratio analysis by expanding the E-M algorithm to provide maximum likelihood estimates of haplotype-specific odds ratios as well as genotype frequencies; (2) show how to correct the cohort approach, to give essentially unbiased estimates for population-based or nested case-control studies by incorporating the probability of selection as a case or control into the likelihood, based on a simplified model of case and control selection, and (3) finally, in an example data set (CYP17 and breast cancer, from the Multiethnic Cohort Study) we compare likelihood-based confidence interval estimates from the two methods with each other, and with the use of the single-imputation approach of Zaykin et al. applied under both

  4. Throughput Estimation Method in Burst ACK Scheme for Optimizing Frame Size and Burst Frame Number Appropriate to SNR-Related Error Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohteru, Shoko; Kishine, Keiji

    The Burst ACK scheme enhances effective throughput by reducing ACK overhead when a transmitter sends sequentially multiple data frames to a destination. IEEE 802.11e is one such example. The size of the data frame body and the number of burst data frames are important burst transmission parameters that affect throughput. The larger the burst transmission parameters are, the better the throughput under error-free conditions becomes. However, large data frame could reduce throughput under error-prone conditions caused by signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) deterioration. If the throughput can be calculated from the burst transmission parameters and error rate, the appropriate ranges of the burst transmission parameters could be narrowed down, and the necessary buffer size for storing transmit data or received data temporarily could be estimated. In this paper, we present a method that features a simple algorithm for estimating the effective throughput from the burst transmission parameters and error rate. The calculated throughput values agree well with the measured ones for actual wireless boards based on the IEEE 802.11-based original MAC protocol. We also calculate throughput values for larger values of the burst transmission parameters outside the assignable values of the wireless boards and find the appropriate values of the burst transmission parameters.

  5. Estimation of local spectrum content of cervical cancer-related features via two dimensional method of geometric restriction in frequency domain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Raad, V.

    2004-01-01

    Digital colposcopy is an emerging new technology, which can be used as adjunct to the conventional Pap test for staging of cervical cancer and it can improve the diagnostic accuracy of the test. Computer aided diagnosis (CAD) in digital colposcopy has as a goal to segment and outline abnormal areas on the cervix, one of which is an important anatomical landmark on the ectocervix - the transformation zone (TZ). In this paper we proposed a new method for estimation of the local spectrum features of cervical cancer in vivo. We used a 2D method to estimate the energy of the local frequency bands, using a geometric restriction (GR). In the current work we reported up to 12 dB difference between the local power spectral density content of the region of interest (ROI) and (ROI) C for the mid-frequency band. We devised a method to present pseudo-color visual maps of the cervical images, useful for CAD and successful ROI segmentation. (author)

  6. Estimation of the epidemiological burden of HPV-related anogenital cancers, precancerous lesions, and genital warts in women and men in Europe: Potential additional benefit of a nine-valent second generation HPV vaccine compared to first generation HPV vaccines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Hartwig

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: A second generation HPV vaccine has been developed for the prevention of anogenital cancers and precancerous lesions of the cervix, vulva, vagina, anus and of genital warts due to nine HPV types.We estimated the annual burden of these diseases attributable to the nine HPV types compared to HPV types from first generation vaccines in women and men in Europe. Material and methods: Incidence rates from the IARC database, cancer registries, the literature and Eurostat population data were used.The burden attributable to the HPV types targeted by both vaccines was estimated by applying the relative contribution of the respective HPV types from epidemiological studies. Results: In 2013, the number of new anogenital HPV-attributable cancers was 44,480 with 39,494 of these cases related to second vs. 33,285 to first generation vaccine types.Among the 284,373 to 541,621 new HPV-attributable anogenital precancerous lesions 235,364–448,423 and 135,025–256,830 were estimated to be related to second and first generation vaccine types, respectively.The annual number of new genital warts was 753,608–935,318, with 90% related to HPV6/11. Conclusions: These data demonstrate how the large public health impact that was achieved by the first generation HPV vaccines could be further increased by second generation vaccines. Keywords: HPV, Burden of disease, Cancer, Precancerous lesions, Genital warts, HPV vaccine

  7. Parameter Estimation of a Reliability Model of Demand-Caused and Standby-Related Failures of Safety Components Exposed to Degradation by Demand Stress and Ageing That Undergo Imperfect Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Martorell

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available One can find many reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM models proposed in the literature. However, such models become more complex day after day, as there is an attempt to capture equipment performance in a more realistic way, such as, explicitly addressing the effect of component ageing and degradation, surveillance activities, and corrective and preventive maintenance policies. Then, there is a need to fit the best model to real data by estimating the model parameters using an appropriate tool. This problem is not easy to solve in some cases since the number of parameters is large and the available data is scarce. This paper considers two main failure models commonly adopted to represent the probability of failure on demand (PFD of safety equipment: (1 by demand-caused and (2 standby-related failures. It proposes a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE approach for parameter estimation of a reliability model of demand-caused and standby-related failures of safety components exposed to degradation by demand stress and ageing that undergo imperfect maintenance. The case study considers real failure, test, and maintenance data for a typical motor-operated valve in a nuclear power plant. The results of the parameters estimation and the adoption of the best model are discussed.

  8. Pain-related fear of (re-)injury in patients with low back pain: Estimation or measurement in manual therapy primary care practice? A pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oostendorp, Rob A B; Elvers, Hans; Mikolajewska, Emilia; Laekeman, Marjan; Roussel, Nathalie; van der Zanden, Olaf; Nijs, Jo; Samwel, Han

    2017-11-06

    Manual physical therapists (MPTs) working in primary care get limited information about patient's courses of (chronic) low back pain (LBP). Identification of kinesiophobia is mostly based on clinical perception. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between the scores with which manual physical therapists in a primary care setting identify kinesiophobia in patients with low back pain, and the patients' self-reported measures of kinesiophobia. The cross-sectional study comprised 104 patients with LBP and 17 MPTs. Patients first independently completed the Tampa Scale for Kinesiophobia (TSK-17). The therapists, blinded to the TSK-scores, rated their perception of a patient's kinesiophobia using the Visual Analogue Scale-Estimation (VAS-est) and the accuracy of their ratings using the Visual Analogue Scale-Accuracy (VAS-ac). Kendall's tau b was used to determine the level of correlation between scores on the TSK-17 and the VAS-est.

  9. Variation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) estimates of radiation-induced hypothyroidism in relation to changes in delineation of the thyroid gland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rønjom, Marianne Feen; Brink, Carsten; Laugaard Lorenzen, Ebbe

    2015-01-01

    volume, Dmean and estimated risk of HT. Bland-Altman plots were used for assessment of the systematic (mean) and random [standard deviation (SD)] variability of the three parameters, and a method for displaying the spatial variation in delineation differences was developed. Results. Intra......-observer variability resulted in a mean difference in thyroid volume and Dmean of 0.4 cm(3) (SD ± 1.6) and -0.5 Gy (SD ± 1.0), respectively, and 0.3 cm(3) (SD ± 1.8) and 0.0 Gy (SD ± 1.3) for inter-observer variability. The corresponding mean differences of NTCP values for radiation-induced HT due to intra- and inter...

  10. Relative Validity and Reproducibility of an Interviewer Administered 14-Item FFQ to Estimate Flavonoid Intake Among Older Adults with Mild-Moderate Dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Katherine; Charlton, Karen

    2017-01-01

    There is a large burden on researchers and participants when attempting to accurately measure dietary flavonoid intake using dietary assessment. Minimizing participant and researcher burden when collecting dietary data may improve the validity of the results, especially in older adults with cognitive impairment. A short 14-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) to measure flavonoid intake, and flavonoid subclasses (anthocyanins, flavan-3-ols, flavones, flavonols, and flavanones) was developed and assessed for validity and reproducibility against a 24-hour recall. Older adults with mild-moderate dementia (n = 49) attended two interviews 12 weeks apart. With the assistance of a family carer, a 24-h recall was collected at the first interview, and the flavonoid FFQ was interviewer-administered at both time-points. Validity and reproducibility was assessed using the Wilcoxon signed-rank sum test, Spearman's correlation coefficient, Bland-Altman Plots, and Cohen's kappa. Mean flavonoid intake was determined (FFQ1 = 795 ± 492.7 mg/day, 24-h recall = 515.6 ± 384.3 mg/day). Tests of validity indicated the FFQ was better at estimating total flavonoid intake than individual flavonoid subclasses compared with the 24-h recall. There was a significant difference in total flavonoid intake estimates between the FFQ and the 24-h recall (Wilcoxon signed-rank sum p Wilcoxon signed-rank sum test showed no significant difference, Spearman's correlation coefficient indicated excellent reliability (r = 0.75, p < 0.001), Bland-Altman plots visually showed small, nonsignificant bias and wide limits of agreement, and Cohen's kappa indicated fair agreement (κ = 0.429, p < 0.001). A 14-item FFQ developed to easily measure flavonoid intake in older adults with dementia demonstrates fair validity against a 24-h recall and good reproducibility.

  11. Modeling the movement and equilibrium of water in the body of ruminants in relation to estimating body composition by deuterium oxide dilution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, R.N.

    1986-01-01

    Deuterium oxide (D 2 O) dilution was evaluated for use in estimating body composition of ruminants. Empty body composition of cattle could not be accurately estimated by two- or three-compartment models when solved on the basis of clearance of D 2 O from blood. A 29-compartment blood-flow model was developed from measured blood flow rates and water volumes of tissues of sheep. The rates of equilibration of water in tissues that were simulated by the blood-flow model were much faster than actual rates measured in sheep and cattle. The incorporation of diffusion hindrances for movement of water into tissues enabled the blood flow model to simulate the measured equilibration rates in tissues, but the values of the diffusion coefficients were different for each tissue. The D 2 O-disappearance curve for blood simulated by the blood-flow model with diffusion limitations was comprised for four exponential components. The tissues and gastrointestinal tract contents were placed into five groups based upon the rate of equilibration. Water in the organs of the body equilibrated with water in blood within 3 min. Water in visceral fat, head, and some of the gastrointestinal tract tissues equilibrated within 8 to 16 min. Water in skeletal muscle, fat, and bone and the contents of some segments of the gastrointestinal tract equilibrated within 30 to 36 min. Water in the tissues and contents of the cecum and upper-large intestine equilibrated within 160 to 200 min. Water in ruminal tissue and contents equilibrated within 480 min

  12. Model Estimates Of Gross Domestic Product In Relation to Export And Import Of Fuels, Focused on the Elasticity and Determination Of Directly and Indirectly Associated Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe Săvoiu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is based on several interrogative assumptions related to the positive impact of the crises and the recession on determinations in the econometric models of Romania’s GDP as a variable dependent in relation to the export and import of fuels. After a short introductory section, which details, in a relative manner, the overall goal and the objectives of the paper, a first section makes use of elasticity and the modern solutions of building the coefficient of elasticity, proposing an original alternative to existing variants, and afterwards the next section builds on these statistical tools in the econometric modeling of Romania’s GDP, starting from the ratios and value indicators and offering a few original models where the export and import of fuels are the key initial explanatory factors. The final remarks reinterpret the role of the energy resources, as well as that of the related flows, in enhancing statistical connections, and especially the role of crises and recessions in validating econometric models, by raising their degree of predictability.

  13. Agricultural net primary production in relation to that liberated by the extinction of Pleistocene mega-herbivores: an estimate of agricultural carrying capacity?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doughty, Christopher E; Field, Christopher B, E-mail: chris.doughty@ouce.ox.ac.uk, E-mail: cfield@ciw.edu [Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States)

    2010-10-15

    Mega-fauna (defined as animals > 44 kg) experienced a global extinction with 97 of 150 genera going extinct by {approx} 10 000 years ago. We estimate the net primary production (NPP) that was liberated following the global extinction of these mega-herbivores. We then explore how humans, through agriculture, gradually appropriated this liberated NPP, with specific calculations for 800, 1850, and 2000 AD. By 1850, most of the liberated NPP had been appropriated by people, but NPP was still available in the Western US, South America and Australia. NPP liberated following the extinction of the mega-herbivores was {approx} 2.5% ({approx}1.4 (between 1.2 and 1.6) Pg yr{sup -1} of 56 Pg C yr{sup -1}; Pg: petagrams) of global terrestrial NPP. Liberated NPP peaked during the onset of agriculture and was sufficient for sustaining human agriculture until {approx} 320 (250-500) years ago. Humans currently use {approx} 6 times more NPP than was utilized by the extinct Pleistocene mega-herbivores.

  14. Identification and Quantification of Uncertainties Related to Using Distributed X-band Radar Estimated Precipitation as input in Urban Drainage Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lisbeth

    The Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) is a small scale weather radar providing distributed measurements of rainfall primarily for use as input in hydrological applications. As any other weather radar the LAWR measurement of the rainfall is an indirect measurement since it does not measure the rainf......The Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) is a small scale weather radar providing distributed measurements of rainfall primarily for use as input in hydrological applications. As any other weather radar the LAWR measurement of the rainfall is an indirect measurement since it does not measure...... are quantified using statistical methods. Furthermore, the present calibration method is reviewed and a new extended calibration method has been developed and tested resulting in improved rainfall estimates. As part of the calibration analysis a number of elements affecting the LAWR performance were identified...... in connection with boundary assignment besides general improved understanding of the benefits and pitfalls in using distributed rainfall data as input to models. In connection with the use of LAWR data in urban drainage context, the potential for using LAWR data for extreme rainfall statistics has been studied...

  15. Agricultural net primary production in relation to that liberated by the extinction of Pleistocene mega-herbivores: an estimate of agricultural carrying capacity?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doughty, Christopher E; Field, Christopher B

    2010-01-01

    Mega-fauna (defined as animals > 44 kg) experienced a global extinction with 97 of 150 genera going extinct by ∼ 10 000 years ago. We estimate the net primary production (NPP) that was liberated following the global extinction of these mega-herbivores. We then explore how humans, through agriculture, gradually appropriated this liberated NPP, with specific calculations for 800, 1850, and 2000 AD. By 1850, most of the liberated NPP had been appropriated by people, but NPP was still available in the Western US, South America and Australia. NPP liberated following the extinction of the mega-herbivores was ∼ 2.5% (∼1.4 (between 1.2 and 1.6) Pg yr -1 of 56 Pg C yr -1 ; Pg: petagrams) of global terrestrial NPP. Liberated NPP peaked during the onset of agriculture and was sufficient for sustaining human agriculture until ∼ 320 (250-500) years ago. Humans currently use ∼ 6 times more NPP than was utilized by the extinct Pleistocene mega-herbivores.

  16. Infarct size in patients with acute myocardial infarction estimated by emission computed tomography with technetium-99m pyrophosphate. Relation to creatine phosphokinase release

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maruyama, Jun-ichi; Onodera, Sokichi; Imura, Suguru; Marutani, Yoshiaki; Takahori, Takashi; Nasuhara, Koh-ichi

    1986-09-01

    To evaluate the usefulness of single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) with technetium-99m-pyrophosphate (/sup 99m/Tc-PYP) for estimating infarct size, we compared SPECT data with maximum creatine phosphokinase values. Background threshold was established in a series of phantom experiments. When a 40 % cut-off was applied, the SPECT data most closely approximated actual phantom volumes. Therefore, the 40 % cut-off level was used in the present study. In 10 patients with acute myocardial infarction, planar /sup 99m/Tc-PYP myocardial scintigraphy and SPECT using a rotating gamma camera were performed two days after the initial myocardial infarction episode. The maximum creatine phosphokinase value (CPKmax) was also measured repeatedly following the episode. When the infarct size measured by SPECT using transaxial images and calculated by the pixel counts, it correlated very closely with CPKmax (r = 0.94). Most studies so far have reported that the CPKmax level reflects infarct size. We conclude that the infarct size as measured by /sup 99m/Tc-PYP SPECT closely approximates the actual infarct size, and that this method is useful to determine the severity of infarcts clinically. Among the 10 patients in this series, three of five with infarcts greater than 60 ml died of pump failure. Therefore, we may be able to predict prognosis after accumulating more such cases and improving the methodology.

  17. Development and validation of a stability-indicating RP-HPLC method for assay of betamethasone and estimation of its related compounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Qiang; Shou, Minshan; Chien, Dwight; Markovich, Robert; Rustum, Abu M

    2010-02-05

    Betamethasone (9alpha-fluoro-16beta-methylprednisolone) is one of the members of the corticosteriod family of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API), which is widely used as an anti-inflammatory agent and also as a starting material to manufacture various esters of betamethasone. A stability-indicating reverse-phase high performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) method has been developed and validated which can separate and accurately quantitate low levels of 26 betamethasone related compounds. The stability-indicating capability of the method was demonstrated through adequate separation of all potential betamethasone related compounds from betamethasone and also from each other that are present in aged and stress degraded betamethasone stability samples. Chromatographic separation of betamethasone and its related compounds was achieved by using a gradient elution at a flow rate of 1.0mL/min on a ACE 3 C18 column (150mmx4.6mm, 3microm particle size, 100A pore size) at 40 degrees C. Mobile phase A of the gradient was 0.1% methanesulfonic acid in aqueous solution and mobile phase B was a mixture of tert-butanol and 1,4-dioxane (7:93, v/v). UV detection at 254nm was employed to monitor the analytes. For betamethasone 21-aldehyde, the QL and DL were 0.02% and 0.01% respectively. For betamethasone and the rest of the betamethasone related compounds, the QL and DL were 0.05% and 0.02%. The precision of betamethasone assay is 0.6% and the accuracy of betamethasone assay ranged from 98.1% to 99.9%.

  18. Coherence in quantum estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorda, Paolo; Allegra, Michele

    2018-01-01

    The geometry of quantum states provides a unifying framework for estimation processes based on quantum probes, and it establishes the ultimate bounds of the achievable precision. We show a relation between the statistical distance between infinitesimally close quantum states and the second order variation of the coherence of the optimal measurement basis with respect to the state of the probe. In quantum phase estimation protocols, this leads to propose coherence as the relevant resource that one has to engineer and control to optimize the estimation precision. Furthermore, the main object of the theory i.e. the symmetric logarithmic derivative, in many cases allows one to identify a proper factorization of the whole Hilbert space in two subsystems. The factorization allows one to discuss the role of coherence versus correlations in estimation protocols; to show how certain estimation processes can be completely or effectively described within a single-qubit subsystem; and to derive lower bounds for the scaling of the estimation precision with the number of probes used. We illustrate how the framework works for both noiseless and noisy estimation procedures, in particular those based on multi-qubit GHZ-states. Finally we succinctly analyze estimation protocols based on zero-temperature critical behavior. We identify the coherence that is at the heart of their efficiency, and we show how it exhibits the non-analyticities and scaling behavior proper of a large class of quantum phase transitions.

  19. Estimating the economic impact of a repository from scenario-based surveys: Models of the relation of stated intent to actual behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Easterling, D.; Morwitz, V.; Kunreuther, H.

    1990-12-01

    The task of estimating the economic impact of a facility as novel and long-lived as a high-level nuclear waste (HLNW) repository is fraught with uncertainty. One approach to the forecasting problems is to survey economic agents as to how they would respond when confronted with hypothetical repository scenarios. A series of such studies conducted for the state of Nevada have examined the potential impact of a Yucca Mountain repository on behavior such as planning conventions, attending conventions, vacationing, outmigration, immigration, and business location. In each case, respondents drawn from a target population report on whether a particular repository event (either some form of an accident, or simply the presence of the facility) would cause them to act any differently than they otherwise would. The responses to such a survey provide an indication of whether or not economic behavior would be altered. However, the analysis is inevitably plagued with the question of how much credence to place in the reports of intended behavior; can we believe what people report they would do in a hypothetical situation? The present study examines a more precise version of this question regarding the validity of stated intent data. After reviewing a variety of literature in the area of intent versus actual behavior, we provide an answer to the question, ''What levels of actual behavior are consistent with the intent data that have been observed in the repository surveys?'' More formally, we assume that we are generally interested in predicting the proportion of a sample who will actually perform a target behavior. 86 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs

  20. Estimating Effective Dose of Radiation From Pediatric Cardiac CT Angiography Using a 64-MDCT Scanner: New Conversion Factors Relating Dose-Length Product to Effective Dose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trattner, Sigal; Chelliah, Anjali; Prinsen, Peter; Ruzal-Shapiro, Carrie B; Xu, Yanping; Jambawalikar, Sachin; Amurao, Maxwell; Einstein, Andrew J

    2017-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the conversion factors that enable accurate estimation of the effective dose (ED) used for cardiac 64-MDCT angiography performed for children. Anthropomorphic phantoms representative of 1- and 10-year-old children, with 50 metal oxide semiconductor field-effect transistor dosimeters placed in organs, underwent scanning performed using a 64-MDCT scanner with different routine clinical cardiac scan modes and x-ray tube potentials. Organ doses were used to calculate the ED on the basis of weighting factors published in 1991 in International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) publication 60 and in 2007 in ICRP publication 103. The EDs and the scanner-reported dose-length products were used to determine conversion factors for each scan mode. The effect of infant heart rate on the ED and the conversion factors was also assessed. The mean conversion factors calculated using the current definition of ED that appeared in ICRP publication 103 were as follows: 0.099 mSv · mGy -1 · cm -1 , for the 1-year-old phantom, and 0.049 mSv · mGy -1 · cm -1 , for the 10-year-old phantom. These conversion factors were a mean of 37% higher than the corresponding conversion factors calculated using the older definition of ED that appeared in ICRP publication 60. Varying the heart rate did not influence the ED or the conversion factors. Conversion factors determined using the definition of ED in ICRP publication 103 and cardiac, rather than chest, scan coverage suggest that the radiation doses that children receive from cardiac CT performed using a contemporary 64-MDCT scanner are higher than the radiation doses previously reported when older chest conversion factors were used. Additional up-to-date pediatric cardiac CT conversion factors are required for use with other contemporary CT scanners and patients of different age ranges.

  1. Genomic instability related to zinc deficiency and excess in an in vitro model: is the upper estimate of the physiological requirements recommended for children safe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padula, Gisel; Ponzinibbio, María Virginia; Gambaro, Rocío Celeste; Seoane, Analía Isabel

    2017-08-01

    Micronutrients are important for the prevention of degenerative diseases due to their role in maintaining genomic stability. Therefore, there is international concern about the need to redefine the optimal mineral and vitamin requirements to prevent DNA damage. We analyzed the cytostatic, cytotoxic, and genotoxic effect of in vitro zinc supplementation to determine the effects of zinc deficiency and excess and whether the upper estimate of the physiological requirement recommended for children is safe. To achieve zinc deficiency, DMEM/Ham's F12 medium (HF12) was chelated (HF12Q). Lymphocytes were isolated from healthy female donors (age range, 5-10 yr) and cultured for 7 d as follows: negative control (HF12, 60 μg/dl ZnSO 4 ); deficient (HF12Q, 12 μg/dl ZnSO 4 ); lower level (HF12Q + 80 μg/dl ZnSO 4 ); average level (HF12Q + 180 μg/dl ZnSO 4 ); upper limit (HF12Q + 280 μg/dl ZnSO 4 ); and excess (HF12Q + 380 μg/dl ZnSO 4 ). The comet (quantitative analysis) and cytokinesis-block micronucleus cytome assays were used. Differences were evaluated with Kruskal-Wallis and ANOVA (p < 0.05). Olive tail moment, tail length, micronuclei frequency, and apoptotic and necrotic percentages were significantly higher in the deficient, upper limit, and excess cultures compared with the negative control, lower, and average limit ones. In vitro zinc supplementation at the lower and average limit (80 and 180 μg/dl ZnSO 4 ) of the physiological requirement recommended for children proved to be the most beneficial in avoiding genomic instability, whereas the deficient, upper limit, and excess (12, 280, and 380 μg/dl) cultures increased DNA and chromosomal damage and apoptotic and necrotic frequencies.

  2. Complexity in estimation of esomeprazole and its related impurities' stability in various stress conditions in low-dose aspirin and esomeprazole magnesium capsules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Palavai Sripal; Hotha, Kishore Kumar; Sait, Shakil

    2013-01-01

    A complex, sensitive, and precise high-performance liquid chromatographic method for the profiling of impurities of esomeprazole in low-dose aspirin and esomeprazole capsules has been developed, validated, and used for the determination of impurities in pharmaceutical products. Esomeprazole and its related impurities' development in the presence of aspirin was traditionally difficult due to aspirin's sensitivity to basic conditions and esomeprazole's sensitivity to acidic conditions. When aspirin is under basic, humid, and extreme temperature conditions, it produces salicylic acid and acetic acid moieties. These two byproducts create an acidic environment for the esomeprazole. Due to the volatility and migration phenomenon of the produced acetic acid and salicylic acid from aspirin in the capsule dosage form, esomeprazole's purity, stability, and quantification are affected. The objective of the present research work was to develop a gradient reversed-phase liquid chromatographic method to separate all the degradation products and process-related impurities from the main peak. The impurities were well-separated on a RP8 column (150 mm × 4.6mm, X-terra, RP8, 3.5μm) by the gradient program using a glycine buffer (0.08 M, pH adjusted to 9.0 with 50% NaOH), acetonitrile, and methanol at a flow rate of 1.0 mL min(-1) with detection wavelength at 305 nm and column temperature at 30°C. The developed method was found to be specific, precise, linear, accurate, rugged, and robust. LOQ values for all of the known impurities were below reporting thresholds. The drug was subjected to stress conditions of hydrolysis, oxidation, photolysis, and thermal degradation in the presence of aspirin. The developed RP-HPLC method was validated according to the present ICH guidelines for specificity, linearity, accuracy, precision, limit of detection, limit of quantification, ruggedness, and robustness.

  3. GlycA, a marker of protein glycosylation, is related to albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate: the ELSA-Brasil study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titan, Silvia M; Pecoits-Filho, Roberto; Barreto, Sandhi M; Lopes, Antônio Alberto; Bensenor, Isabela J; Lotufo, Paulo A

    2017-12-20

    Systemic inflammation has been implicated in several chronic diseases. GlycA is a new nuclear mass resonance (NMR) spectroscopy-derived biomarker of systemic inflammation that reflects protein glycosylation. We evaluated the association of GlycA with albuminuria and eGFR in the ELSA-Brasil Study. The cross-sectional association between GlycA (automated NMR LipoProfile(®) test spectra, LabCorp, Raleigh, NC), and overnight 12 h-albuminuria and CKD-EPI eGFR was evaluated among 5050 participants. GlycA was higher among older, women, smokers, alcohol abstemious, obese and in those with diabetes, hypertension or dyslipidemia. In addition, both eGFR and albuminuria were associated to GlycA. In linear regression, GlycA was independently associated with log albuminuria (B 0.03; 95%CI 0.02-0.04, P < 0.0001, per 1sd increase) and inversely related to eGFR (B -0.53; 95%CI -0.99 - -0.07, P < 0.02), even after adjustments including hsCRP. In logistic regression, GlycA was independently related to the risk of A2 or A3 albuminuria (OR 1.42, 95%CI 1.27-1.57, p < 0.0001, per 1sd increase), of having an eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73m 2 (OR 1.26, 95%CI 1.12-1.41, p = 0.0003, per 1 sd) or of a combined diagnosis of both conditions (OR 1.35, 95%CI 1.23-1.46, p < 0.0001, per 1 sd). In the ROC curve, GlycA had a higher AUC in comparison to hsCRP (AUC 0.67 vs. 0.62, p = 0.06) for the association with albuminuria A2 or A3. The present study demonstrates that GlycA is associated with albuminuria and eGFR, independently of major risk factors for CKD progression, including (and with a stronger association than) hsCRP. GlycA should be further evaluated in CKD progression.

  4. Estimation of the Relative Severity of Floods in Small Ungauged Catchments for Preliminary Observations on Flash Flood Preparedness: A Case Study in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

    2012-01-01

    An increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration has caused significant danger and loss of life and property in Korea as well as many other parts of the World. Since such floods usually accompanied by rapid runoff and debris flow rise quite quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage, this study presents a new flash flood indexing methodology to promptly provide preliminary observations regarding emergency preparedness and response to flash flood disasters in small ungauged catchments. Flood runoff hydrographs are generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the annual maximum rainfall series of long-term observed data in the two selected small ungauged catchments. The relative flood severity factors quantifying characteristics of flood runoff hydrographs are standardized by the highest recorded maximum value, and then averaged to obtain the flash flood index only for flash flood events in each study catchment. It is expected that the regression equations between the proposed flash flood index and rainfall characteristics can provide the basis database of the preliminary information for forecasting the local flood severity in order to facilitate flash flood preparedness in small ungauged catchments. PMID:22690208

  5. Dental age estimation: periodontal ligament visibility (PLV)-pattern recognition of a conclusive mandibular maturity marker related to the lower left third molar at the 18-year threshold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Victoria S; McDonald, Fraser; Andiappan, Manoharan; Roberts, Graham

    2017-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the applicability of periodontal ligament visibility (PLV) at the 18-year threshold. This mandibular maturity marker is graded into four separate age related stages, PLV-A, PLV-B, PLV-C, and PLV-D. These are discernible on a dental panoramic tomograph (DPT). The sample comprised a total of 2000 DPTs evenly divided into half yearly age bands from 16.00 to 25.99 years with 50 females and 50 males in each age band. It was found that PLV-A and PLV-B had minimum values below the 18-year threshold. PLV-C and PLV-D in females had minimum values of 18.08 and 18.58 years, respectively. In males, the minimum values for PLV-C was 18.10 years and PLV-D was 18.67 years. It was concluded that the presence of PLV-C or PLV-D indicates that a subject is over 18 years with a very high level of probability.

  6. Meta-analysis of the INSIG2 association with obesity including 74,345 individuals: does heterogeneity of estimates relate to study design?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heid, Iris M; Huth, Cornelia; Loos, Ruth J F

    2009-01-01

    with subjects selected for conditions related to a better health status ('healthy population', HP), and obesity studies (OB). We tested five hypotheses to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. The meta-analysis of 27 studies on Caucasian adults (n = 66,213) combining the different study designs did......The INSIG2 rs7566605 polymorphism was identified for obesity (BMI> or =30 kg/m(2)) in one of the first genome-wide association studies, but replications were inconsistent. We collected statistics from 34 studies (n = 74,345), including general population (GP) studies, population-based studies...... not support overall association of the CC-genotype with obesity, yielding an odds ratio (OR) of 1.05 (p-value = 0.27). The I(2) measure of 41% (p-value = 0.015) indicated between-study heterogeneity. Restricting to GP studies resulted in a declined I(2) measure of 11% (p-value = 0.33) and an OR of 1.10 (p...

  7. The relative validity of a retrospective estimate of food consumption based on a current dietary history and a food frequency list.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakkum, A; Bloemberg, B; van Staveren, W A; Verschuren, M; West, C E

    1988-01-01

    The relative validity of information and food consumption in the distant past was assessed by combining a dietary history (referring to the recent past) with a food frequency list (monitoring major changes over the past 12-14 years). This approach was evaluated in a study of two groups of apparently healthy elderly people (mean age 80 years) who had participated in a food consumption study 12-14 years before the start of the present study. One group consisted of 18 harbor employees who retired subsequent to the initial assessment of food intake. On the average, each member of this group had reduced his food consumption by about 1,000 kcal. The other group consisted of 46 elderly men and women who had retired before their food consumption was measured initially. This group had not markedly changed their food intake. The results showed that both groups overestimated changes in their food intake and that the systematic overestimation and random error were similar for both groups. If the men in both groups were combined to form one group, a valid ranking of subjects in small and large consumers of energy and most of the selected nutrients was possible. However, current food intake influenced the accuracy of the measurement of past food intake.

  8. Estimation of Jump Tails

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Todorov, Victor

    We propose a new and flexible non-parametric framework for estimating the jump tails of Itô semimartingale processes. The approach is based on a relatively simple-to-implement set of estimating equations associated with the compensator for the jump measure, or its "intensity", that only utilizes...... the weak assumption of regular variation in the jump tails, along with in-fill asymptotic arguments for uniquely identifying the "large" jumps from the data. The estimation allows for very general dynamic dependencies in the jump tails, and does not restrict the continuous part of the process...... and the temporal variation in the stochastic volatility. On implementing the new estimation procedure with actual high-frequency data for the S&P 500 aggregate market portfolio, we find strong evidence for richer and more complex dynamic dependencies in the jump tails than hitherto entertained in the literature....

  9. Estimation of salivary flow rate, pH, buffer capacity, calcium, total protein content and total antioxidant capacity in relation to dental caries severity, age and gender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Pallavi; Reddy, N Venugopal; Rao, V Arun Prasad; Saxena, Aditya; Chaudhary, C P

    2015-03-01

    The aim of the study was to evaluate salivary flow rate, pH, buffering capacity, calcium, total protein content and total antioxidant capacity in relation to dental caries, age and gender. The study population consisted of 120 healthy children aged 7-15 years that was further divided into two groups: 7-10 years and 11-15 years. In this 60 children with DMFS/dfs = 0 and 60 children with DMFS/dfs ≥5 were included. The subjects were divided into two groups; Group A: Children with DMFS/dfs = 0 (caries-free) Group B: Children with DMFS/dfs ≥5 (caries active). Unstimulated saliva samples were collected from all groups. Flow rates were determined, and samples analyzed for pH, buffer capacity, calcium, total protein and total antioxidant status. Salivary antioxidant activity is measured with spectrophotometer by an adaptation of 2,2'-azino-di-(3-ethylbenzthiazoline-6-sulphonate) assays. The mean difference of the two groups; caries-free and caries active were proved to be statistically significant (P salivary calcium, total protein and total antioxidant level for both the sexes in the age group 7-10 years and for the age 11-15 years the mean difference of the two groups were proved to be statistically significant (P salivary calcium level for both the sexes. Salivary total protein and total antioxidant level were proved to be statistically significant for male children only. In general, total protein and total antioxidants in saliva were increased with caries activity. Calcium content of saliva was found to be more in caries-free group and increased with age.

  10. Construction and characterization of no