Re‐estimated effects of deep episodic slip on the occurrence and probability of great earthquakes in Cascadia

Science.gov (United States)

Beeler, Nicholas M.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; McCausland, Wendy

2013-01-01

Mazzotti and Adams (2004) estimated that rapid deep slip during typically two week long episodes beneath northern Washington and southern British Columbia increases the probability of a great Cascadia earthquake by 30–100 times relative to the probability during the ∼58 weeks between slip events. Because the corresponding absolute probability remains very low at ∼0.03% per week, their conclusion is that though it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur during a rapid slip event than during other times, a great earthquake is unlikely to occur during any particular rapid slip event. This previous estimate used a failure model in which great earthquakes initiate instantaneously at a stress threshold. We refine the estimate, assuming a delayed failure model that is based on laboratory‐observed earthquake initiation. Laboratory tests show that failure of intact rock in shear and the onset of rapid slip on pre‐existing faults do not occur at a threshold stress. Instead, slip onset is gradual and shows a damped response to stress and loading rate changes. The characteristic time of failure depends on loading rate and effective normal stress. Using this model, the probability enhancement during the period of rapid slip in Cascadia is negligible (stresses of 10 MPa or more and only increases by 1.5 times for an effective normal stress of 1 MPa. We present arguments that the hypocentral effective normal stress exceeds 1 MPa. In addition, the probability enhancement due to rapid slip extends into the interevent period. With this delayed failure model for effective normal stresses greater than or equal to 50 kPa, it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur between the periods of rapid deep slip than during them. Our conclusion is that great earthquake occurrence is not significantly enhanced by episodic deep slip events.

Common raven occurrence in relation to energy transmission line corridors transiting human-altered sagebrush steppe

Science.gov (United States)

Coates, Peter S.; Howe, Kristy B.; Casazza, Michael L.; Delehanty, David J.

2014-01-01

Energy-related infrastructure and other human enterprises within sagebrush steppe of the American West often results in changes that promote common raven (Corvus corax; hereafter, raven) populations. Ravens, a generalist predator capable of behavioral innovation, present a threat to many species of conservation concern. We evaluate the effects of detailed features of an altered landscape on the probability of raven occurrence using extensive raven survey (n= 1045) and mapping data from southern Idaho, USA. We found nonlinear relationships between raven occurrence and distances to transmission lines, roads, and facilities. Most importantly, raven occurrence was greater with presence of transmission lines up to 2.2 km from the corridor.We further explain variation in raven occurrence along anthropogenic features based on the amount of non-native vegetation and cover type edge, such that ravens select fragmented sagebrush stands with patchy, exotic vegetative introgression. Raven occurrence also increased with greater length of edge formed by the contact of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate spp.) with non-native vegetation cover types. In consideration of increasing alteration of sagebrush steppe, these findings will be useful for planning energy transmission corridor placement and other management activities where conservation of sagebrush obligate species is a priority.

Faster exact Markovian probability functions for motif occurrences: a DFA-only approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Ribeca, Paolo; Raineri, Emanuele

2008-12-15

The computation of the statistical properties of motif occurrences has an obviously relevant application: patterns that are significantly over- or under-represented in genomes or proteins are interesting candidates for biological roles. However, the problem is computationally hard; as a result, virtually all the existing motif finders use fast but approximate scoring functions, in spite of the fact that they have been shown to produce systematically incorrect results. A few interesting exact approaches are known, but they are very slow and hence not practical in the case of realistic sequences. We give an exact solution, solely based on deterministic finite-state automata (DFA), to the problem of finding the whole relevant part of the probability distribution function of a simple-word motif in a homogeneous (biological) sequence. Out of that, the z-value can always be computed, while the P-value can be obtained either when it is not too extreme with respect to the number of floating-point digits available in the implementation, or when the number of pattern occurrences is moderately low. In particular, the time complexity of the algorithms for Markov models of moderate order (0 manage to obtain an algorithm which is both easily interpretable and efficient. This approach can be used for exact statistical studies of very long genomes and protein sequences, as we illustrate with some examples on the scale of the human genome.

Uncertainty relation and probability. Numerical illustration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujikawa, Kazuo; Umetsu, Koichiro

2011-01-01

The uncertainty relation and the probability interpretation of quantum mechanics are intrinsically connected, as is evidenced by the evaluation of standard deviations. It is thus natural to ask if one can associate a very small uncertainty product of suitably sampled events with a very small probability. We have shown elsewhere that some examples of the evasion of the uncertainty relation noted in the past are in fact understood in this way. We here numerically illustrate that a very small uncertainty product is realized if one performs a suitable sampling of measured data that occur with a very small probability. We introduce a notion of cyclic measurements. It is also shown that our analysis is consistent with the Landau-Pollak-type uncertainty relation. It is suggested that the present analysis may help reconcile the contradicting views about the 'standard quantum limit' in the detection of gravitational waves. (author)

Packaging- and transportation-related occurrence reports. Fiscal year 1996 annual report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dickerson, L.S.; Welch, M.J.

1997-02-01

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), through its support to the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Transportation, Emergency Management, and Analytical Services (EM-76), retrieves reports and information pertaining to transportation and packaging occurrences from the centralized Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS) database. These selected reports are analyzed for trends, impact on packaging and transportation operations and safety concerns, and lessons learned (LL) in transportation and packaging safety. Some selected reports are reviewed to evaluate the corrective actions being conducted. This report contains an analysis of 246 occurrences identified as packaging- or transportation-related during fiscal year (FY) 1996, with supporting data from calendar year (CY) 1991 through 1995 which provide the basis for trending. The overall number of packaging- and transportation-related occurrences remains a small percentage of the total occurrences in the DOE system, through it is relatively higher this year (∼6%) than previous years when transportation occurrences were approximately 3% of the total. The decrease in the total number of occurrences may be the result of the rollup provisions of the new DOE Order 232.1, and the comparative increase in packaging- and transportation-related occurrence reports (ORs) is only a reflection of the decrease in the overall total. There does not appear to be a correlation between the total number of offsite hazardous materials shipments and the number of reported occurrences. The offsite occurrences, while few in number, are consistent for the major shippers and contractors

Simulation of Daily Weather Data Using Theoretical Probability Distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruhn, J. A.; Fry, W. E.; Fick, G. W.

1980-09-01

A computer simulation model was constructed to supply daily weather data to a plant disease management model for potato late blight. In the weather model Monte Carlo techniques were employed to generate daily values of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation. Each weather variable is described by a known theoretical probability distribution but the values of the parameters describing each distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rainfall. Precipitation occurrence is described by a first-order Markov chain. The amount of rain, given that rain has occurred, is described by a gamma probability distribution. Maximum and minimum temperature are simulated with a trivariate normal probability distribution involving maximum temperature on the previous day, maximum temperature on the current day and minimum temperature on the current day. Parameter values for this distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the previous day. Both minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation are assumed to be normally distributed. The values of the parameters describing the distribution of minimum relative humidity is dependent on rainfall occurrence on the previous day and current day. Parameter values for total solar radiation are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the current day. The assumptions made during model construction were found to be appropriate for actual weather data from Geneva, New York. The performance of the weather model was evaluated by comparing the cumulative frequency distributions of simulated weather data with the distributions of actual weather data from Geneva, New York and Fort Collins, Colorado. For each location, simulated weather data were similar to actual weather data in terms of mean response, variability and autocorrelation. The possible applications of this model when used with models of other components of the agro-ecosystem are discussed.

Statistics concerning the Apollo command module water landing, including the probability of occurrence of various impact conditions, sucessful impact, and body X-axis loads

Science.gov (United States)

Whitnah, A. M.; Howes, D. B.

1971-01-01

Statistical information for the Apollo command module water landings is presented. This information includes the probability of occurrence of various impact conditions, a successful impact, and body X-axis loads of various magnitudes.

Relation of Cloud Occurrence Frequency, Overlap, and Effective Thickness Derived from CALIPSO and CloudSat Merged Cloud Vertical Profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, Seiji; Sun-Mack, Sunny; Miller, Walter F.; Rose, Fred G.; Chen, Yan; Minnis, Patrick; Wielicki, Bruce A.

2009-01-01

A cloud frequency of occurrence matrix is generated using merged cloud vertical profile derived from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR). The matrix contains vertical profiles of cloud occurrence frequency as a function of the uppermost cloud top. It is shown that the cloud fraction and uppermost cloud top vertical pro les can be related by a set of equations when the correlation distance of cloud occurrence, which is interpreted as an effective cloud thickness, is introduced. The underlying assumption in establishing the above relation is that cloud overlap approaches the random overlap with increasing distance separating cloud layers and that the probability of deviating from the random overlap decreases exponentially with distance. One month of CALIPSO and CloudSat data support these assumptions. However, the correlation distance sometimes becomes large, which might be an indication of precipitation. The cloud correlation distance is equivalent to the de-correlation distance introduced by Hogan and Illingworth [2000] when cloud fractions of both layers in a two-cloud layer system are the same.

Packaging- and transportation-related occurrence reports: 1993 annual report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Welch, M.J.; Dickerson, L.S.; Jennings, S.D.

1994-06-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS) is an interactive computer system designed to support DOE-owned or -operated facilities in reporting and processing of information concerning occurrences related to facility operations. The requirements for reporting and the extent of the occurrences to be reported are defined in DOE Order 5000.3B, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information (hereafter referred to as DOE 5000.3B). The centralized data base, which is managed by the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), provides computerized support for the collection, distribution, updating, analysis, and sign-off of information in the occurrence reports (ORs). The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Packaging and Transportation Safety (PATS) Program has been made responsible for retrieving reports and information pertaining to transportation and packaging incidents/accidents from the centralized ORPS data base. This annual report details the methodology that PATS uses to conduct searches of the ORPS for pertinent information, the form of the reporting to EH-332, review and examination of trends observed in ORs related to transportation and packaging safety, a presentation and discussion of the root-cause codes of ORPS and the nature of occurrence codes of PATS, timely processing of notification reports to final stage, and analysis of 10% of the reported ORs that were finalized to determine whether the actions taken to close out the occurrences were sufficient to ensure remediation of the incident and to prevent a recurrence. Data in the report are presented by calendar years

Class dependency of fuzzy relational database using relational calculus and conditional probability

Science.gov (United States)

Deni Akbar, Mohammad; Mizoguchi, Yoshihiro; Adiwijaya

2018-03-01

In this paper, we propose a design of fuzzy relational database to deal with a conditional probability relation using fuzzy relational calculus. In the previous, there are several researches about equivalence class in fuzzy database using similarity or approximate relation. It is an interesting topic to investigate the fuzzy dependency using equivalence classes. Our goal is to introduce a formulation of a fuzzy relational database model using the relational calculus on the category of fuzzy relations. We also introduce general formulas of the relational calculus for the notion of database operations such as ’projection’, ’selection’, ’injection’ and ’natural join’. Using the fuzzy relational calculus and conditional probabilities, we introduce notions of equivalence class, redundant, and dependency in the theory fuzzy relational database.

Fear appeals and attitude change: effects of a threat's noxiousness, probability of occurrence, and the efficacy of coping responses.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers, R W; Mewborn, C R

1976-07-01

Three factorial experiments examined the persuasive effects of the noxiousness of threatened event, its probability of occurrence, and the efficacy of recommended protective measures. A total of 176 students participated in separate studies on the topics of cigarette smoking, driving safety, and venereal disease. The results disclosed that increments in the efficacy variable increased intentions to adopt the efficacy variable increased intentions to adopt the recommended practices. Interaction effects revealed that when the preventive practices were effective, increments in the noxiousness and probability variables facilitated attitude change; however, when the coping responses were the preventive practices were effective, increments in the noxiousness and probability either had no effect or a deleterious effect, respectively. These interaction effects were discussed in terms of a defensive avoidance hypothesis, the crucial component of which was an inability to ward off the danger. Furthermore, the effect of the emotion of fear upon intentions was found to be mediated by the cognitive appraisal of severity of the threat. Finally, similarities with and extensions of previous studies were reviewed.

Conditional probability of the tornado missile impact given a tornado occurrence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodman, J.; Koch, J.E.

1982-01-01

Using an approach based on statistical mechanics, an expression for the probability of the first missile strike is developed. The expression depends on two generic parameters (injection probability eta(F) and height distribution psi(Z,F)), which are developed in this study, and one plant specific parameter (number of potential missiles N/sub p/). The expression for the joint probability of simultaneous impact of muitiple targets is also developed. This espression is applicable to calculation of the probability of common cause failure due to tornado missiles. It is shown that the probability of the first missile strike can be determined using a uniform missile distribution model. It is also shown that the conditional probability of the second strike, given the first, is underestimated by the uniform model. The probability of the second strike is greatly increased if the missiles are in clusters large enough to cover both targets

Foreshock activity and its probabilistic relation to earthquake occurrence in Albania and the surrounding area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Irikura

1999-06-01

Full Text Available We investigate some characteristics of foreshock activity of moderate and large earthquakes which occurred in the present century in Albania and the surrounding area. Using a prediction algorithm, based on possible foreshocks, we obtained a probabilistic relation between possible foreshocks and mainshocks. From documentary and instrumental data for the period 1901-1994 for the area between 39.0°- 43.0°N and 18.5°-21.5°E we evaluated the probability of the occurrence of mainshocks immediately after their possible foreshocks. The result shows that the probability that mainshocks with magnitude M ³ 6.0 are preceded by a foreshock with magnitude M ³ 4.4, distance £ about 50 km and time £ 10 days is 38% (6/16. The probability that one earthquake with M ³ 4.4 will be followed by a larger earthquake with M ³ 6.0 within about 50 km and 10 days is 1.3% (6/468, but the probability increases to 33% (1/3 if 7 earthquakes with M ³ 4.4 occur within about 50 km and 10 days. From instrumental data for the period 1971-1994, the probability that mainshocks with M ³ 5.0 are preceded by a foreshock with magnitude M ³ 4.0 is 33% (5/15. The probability that one earthquake with M ³ 4.0 will be followed by a larger earthquake with M ³ 5.0 within about 50 km and 10 days is 1.9% (5/262, but the probability increase to 5.6% (1/18 if 3 earthquakes with M ³ 4.0 occur within about 50 km and 10 days. We also found a regional variation of foreshock activity with activity decreasing from the Vlora-Elbasani-Dibra transversal seismic belt to the Ionian-Adriatic seismic zone to the interior part of Albania seismic zone.

Waste Package Misload Probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knudsen, J.K.

2001-01-01

The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a

Foundations of probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fraassen, B.C. van

1979-01-01

The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)

A brief introduction to probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

2018-02-01

The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

Predicted occurrence rate of severe transportation accidents involving large casks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dennis, A.W.

1978-01-01

A summary of the results of an investigation of the severities of highway and railroad accidents as they relate to the shipment of large radioactive materials casks is discussed. The accident environments considered are fire, impact, crash, immersion, and puncture. For each of these environments, the accident severities and their predicted frequencies of occurrence are presented. These accident environments are presented in tabular and graphic form to allow the reader to evaluate the probabilities of occurrence of the accident parameter severities he selects

Uncertainty about probability: a decision analysis perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Howard, R.A.

1988-01-01

The issue of how to think about uncertainty about probability is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the medium as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, they find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group

A hierarchical community occurrence model for North Carolina stream fish

Science.gov (United States)

Midway, S.R.; Wagner, Tyler; Tracy, B.H.

2016-01-01

The southeastern USA is home to one of the richest—and most imperiled and threatened—freshwater fish assemblages in North America. For many of these rare and threatened species, conservation efforts are often limited by a lack of data. Drawing on a unique and extensive data set spanning over 20 years, we modeled occurrence probabilities of 126 stream fish species sampled throughout North Carolina, many of which occur more broadly in the southeastern USA. Specifically, we developed species-specific occurrence probabilities from hierarchical Bayesian multispecies models that were based on common land use and land cover covariates. We also used index of biotic integrity tolerance classifications as a second level in the model hierarchy; we identify this level as informative for our work, but it is flexible for future model applications. Based on the partial-pooling property of the models, we were able to generate occurrence probabilities for many imperiled and data-poor species in addition to highlighting a considerable amount of occurrence heterogeneity that supports species-specific investigations whenever possible. Our results provide critical species-level information on many threatened and imperiled species as well as information that may assist with re-evaluation of existing management strategies, such as the use of surrogate species. Finally, we highlight the use of a relatively simple hierarchical model that can easily be generalized for similar situations in which conventional models fail to provide reliable estimates for data-poor groups.

Report on safety related occurrences and reactor trips July 1, 1976-December 31, 1976

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andermo, L.

1977-04-01

This is a systematically arranged report on all reported safety related occurrences and reactor trips in Swedish nuclear power plants in operation during July 1, 1976 to December 31, 1976 inclusive. The facilities involved are Oskarshamn 1 and 2, Ringhals 1 and 2 and Barsebaeck 1. During this period of the 6 months 37 safety related occurrences and 34 reactor trips have been reported to the Nuclear Power Inspectorate. As earlier experiences have shown it is to the greatest extent the conventional components which bring about the safety related occurrences or occurrences leading to outages or power reductions. However, the component errors discovered in the safety related systems have not affected the function of their redundant systems and other diverse systems have not been involved. Therefore the reactor safety has been satisfactory. The fact that even small deviations from prescribed operation results in automatic and safe shut down of the reactor, does not always imply a conflict with operational availability. The number of reactor trips are almost as low as during the last period, which is a drastic reduction compared to earlier time periods. The greatest outages are caused by occurrences without safety significance.(author)

Report on safety related occurrences and reactor trips July 1, 1977 - December 31, 1977

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andermo, L.; Sundman, B.

1974-04-01

This is a systematically arranged report on all reported safety related occurrences and reactor trips in Swedish nuclear power plants in operation during July 1 to December 31, 1977 inclusive. The facilities involved are Barsebaeck 1 and 2, Oskarshamn 1 and 2 and Ringhals 1 and 2. During this period of 6 months 48 safety related occurrences and 49 reactor trips have been reported to the Nuclear Power Inspectorate. Included is also one incident June 21 in Barsebaeck 2 which was not included in the last compilation of occurrences. As earlier experiences have shown it is to the greatest extent the conventional components which bring about the safety related occurrences or occurrences leading to outages or power reductions. However, the component errors discovered in the safety related systems have not affected the function of their redundant systems and other diverse systems have not been involved. Therefore the reactor safety has been satisfactory. The total number of reactor trips have increased nearly 30% since the last period. Those occurred during power operation however, were less. More than 50% of the reactor trips happened in the shutdown condition. The fact that even small deviations from prescribed operation result in automatic and safe shut down of the reactor, does not always imply a conflict with operational availability. The greatest outages are caused by occurrences withou02068NRM 0000169 450

Is there a metric for mineral deposit occurrence probabilities?

Science.gov (United States)

Drew, L.J.; Menzie, W.D.

1993-01-01

Traditionally, mineral resource assessments have been used to estimate the physical inventory of critical and strategic mineral commodities that occur in pieces of land and to assess the consequences of supply disruptions of these commodities. More recently, these assessments have been used to estimate the undiscovered mineral wealth in such pieces of land to assess the opportunity cost of using the land for purposes other than mineral production. The field of mineral resource assessment is an interdisciplinary field that draws elements from the disciplines of geology, economic geology (descriptive models), statistics and management science (grade and tonnage models), mineral economics, and operations research (computer simulation models). The purpose of this study is to assert that an occurrenceprobability metric exists that is useful in "filling out" an assessment both for areas in which only a trivial probability exists that a new mining district could be present and for areas where nontrivial probabilities exist for such districts. ?? 1993 Oxford University Press.

Report on safety related occurrences and reactor trips July 1, 1979 - December 31, 1979

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olsson, S.; Andermo, L.

1980-01-01

This is a report on all reported safety related occurrences and reactor trips in Swedish nuclear power plants in operation during July 1 to December 31, 1979 inclusive. The facilities involved are Barsebaeck 1 and 2, Oskarshamn 1 and 2 and Ringhals 1 and 2. During this period of 6 months 76 safety related occurrences and 27 reactor trips have been reported to the Nuclear Power Inspectorate. It is to the greatest extent conventional components such as valves and pumps which bring about the safety related occurrences or occurrences leading to outages or power reductions. However, the component errors discovered in the safety related systems have not affected the function of their redundant system and other diverse systems have not been involved. Therefore the reactor safety has been satisfactory. The total number of reactor trips are normal. The average value for these 6 months is 4.5 trips/unit. Approximetely one half of the reactor trips happened at zero or very low power operation. The fact that even small deviations from prescribed operation result in an automatic and safe shut down of the reactor, does not always imply a conflict with operational availability. The greatest outages are caused by occurrences without safety significance. (author)

Occurrence and Probability Maps of Lutzomyia longipalpis and Lutzomyia cruzi (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrade-Filho, J D; Scholte, R G C; Amaral, A L G; Shimabukuro, P H F; Carvalho, O S; Caldeira, R L

2017-09-01

Leishmaniases are serious diseases caused by trypanosomatid protozoans of the genus Leishmania transmitted by the bite of phlebotomine sand flies. We analyzed records pertaining to Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz and Neiva, 1912) and Lutzomyia cruzi (Mangabeira, 1938) in Brazil from the following sources: the collection of phlebotomine sand flies of the Centro de Pesquisas René Rachou/Fiocruz (FIOCRUZ-COLFLEB), the "SpeciesLink" (CRIA) database, from systematic surveys of scientific articles and gray literature (dissertations, theses, and communications), and disease data obtained from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases/Ministry of Health (SINAN/MS). Environmental data and ecological niche modeling (ESMS) using the approach of MaxEnt algorithm produced maps of occurrence probability for both Lu. longipalpis and Lu. cruzi. Lutzomyia longipalpis was found in 229 Brazilian municipalities and Lu. cruzi in 27. The species were sympatric in 16 municipalities of the Central-West region of Brazil. Our results show that Lu. longipalpis is widely distributed and associated with the high number of cases of visceral leishmaniasis reported in Brazil. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Prediction of the occurrence of related strong earthquakes in Italy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vorobieva, I.A.; Panza, G.F.

1993-06-01

In the seismic flow it is often observed that a Strong Earthquake (SE), is followed by Related Strong Earthquakes (RSEs), which occur near the epicentre of the SE with origin time rather close to the origin time of the SE. The algorithm for the prediction of the occurrence of a RSE has been developed and applied for the first time to the seismicity data of the California-Nevada region and has been successfully tested in several regions of the World, the statistical significance of the result being 97%. So far, it has been possible to make five successful forward predictions, with no false alarms or failures to predict. The algorithm is applied here to the Italian territory, where the occurrence of RSEs is a particularly rare phenomenon. Our results show that the standard algorithm is successfully directly applicable without any adjustment of the parameters. Eleven SEs are considered. Of them, three are followed by a RSE, as predicted by the algorithm, eight SEs are not followed by a RSE, and the algorithm predicts this behaviour for seven of them, giving rise to only one false alarm. Since, in Italy, quite often the series of strong earthquakes are relatively short, the algorithm has been extended to handle such situation. The result of this experiment indicates that it is possible to attempt to test a SE, for the occurrence of a RSE, soon after the occurrence of the SE itself, performing timely ''preliminary'' recognition on reduced data sets. This fact, the high confidence level of the retrospective analysis, and the first successful forward predictions, made in different parts of the World, indicates that, even if additional tests are desirable, the algorithm can already be considered for routine application to Civil Defence. (author). Refs, 3 figs, 7 tabs

Active Longitude and Coronal Mass Ejection Occurrences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gyenge, N.; Kiss, T. S.; Erdélyi, R.; Singh, T.; Srivastava, A. K.

2017-01-01

The spatial inhomogeneity of the distribution of coronal mass ejection (CME) occurrences in the solar atmosphere could provide a tool to estimate the longitudinal position of the most probable CME-capable active regions in the Sun. The anomaly in the longitudinal distribution of active regions themselves is often referred to as active longitude (AL). In order to reveal the connection between the AL and CME spatial occurrences, here we investigate the morphological properties of active regions. The first morphological property studied is the separateness parameter, which is able to characterize the probability of the occurrence of an energetic event, such as a solar flare or CME. The second morphological property is the sunspot tilt angle. The tilt angle of sunspot groups allows us to estimate the helicity of active regions. The increased helicity leads to a more complex buildup of the magnetic structure and also can cause CME eruption. We found that the most complex active regions appear near the AL and that the AL itself is associated with the most tilted active regions. Therefore, the number of CME occurrences is higher within the AL. The origin of the fast CMEs is also found to be associated with this region. We concluded that the source of the most probably CME-capable active regions is at the AL. By applying this method, we can potentially forecast a flare and/or CME source several Carrington rotations in advance. This finding also provides new information for solar dynamo modeling.

Active Longitude and Coronal Mass Ejection Occurrences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gyenge, N.; Kiss, T. S.; Erdélyi, R. [Solar Physics and Space Plasmas Research Centre (SP2RC), School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield Hounsfield Road, Hicks Building, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom); Singh, T.; Srivastava, A. K., E-mail: n.g.gyenge@sheffield.ac.uk [Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Technology (Banaras Hindu University), Varanasi (India)

2017-03-20

The spatial inhomogeneity of the distribution of coronal mass ejection (CME) occurrences in the solar atmosphere could provide a tool to estimate the longitudinal position of the most probable CME-capable active regions in the Sun. The anomaly in the longitudinal distribution of active regions themselves is often referred to as active longitude (AL). In order to reveal the connection between the AL and CME spatial occurrences, here we investigate the morphological properties of active regions. The first morphological property studied is the separateness parameter, which is able to characterize the probability of the occurrence of an energetic event, such as a solar flare or CME. The second morphological property is the sunspot tilt angle. The tilt angle of sunspot groups allows us to estimate the helicity of active regions. The increased helicity leads to a more complex buildup of the magnetic structure and also can cause CME eruption. We found that the most complex active regions appear near the AL and that the AL itself is associated with the most tilted active regions. Therefore, the number of CME occurrences is higher within the AL. The origin of the fast CMEs is also found to be associated with this region. We concluded that the source of the most probably CME-capable active regions is at the AL. By applying this method, we can potentially forecast a flare and/or CME source several Carrington rotations in advance. This finding also provides new information for solar dynamo modeling.

Active Longitude and Coronal Mass Ejection Occurrences

Science.gov (United States)

Gyenge, N.; Singh, T.; Kiss, T. S.; Srivastava, A. K.; Erdélyi, R.

2017-03-01

The spatial inhomogeneity of the distribution of coronal mass ejection (CME) occurrences in the solar atmosphere could provide a tool to estimate the longitudinal position of the most probable CME-capable active regions in the Sun. The anomaly in the longitudinal distribution of active regions themselves is often referred to as active longitude (AL). In order to reveal the connection between the AL and CME spatial occurrences, here we investigate the morphological properties of active regions. The first morphological property studied is the separateness parameter, which is able to characterize the probability of the occurrence of an energetic event, such as a solar flare or CME. The second morphological property is the sunspot tilt angle. The tilt angle of sunspot groups allows us to estimate the helicity of active regions. The increased helicity leads to a more complex buildup of the magnetic structure and also can cause CME eruption. We found that the most complex active regions appear near the AL and that the AL itself is associated with the most tilted active regions. Therefore, the number of CME occurrences is higher within the AL. The origin of the fast CMEs is also found to be associated with this region. We concluded that the source of the most probably CME-capable active regions is at the AL. By applying this method, we can potentially forecast a flare and/or CME source several Carrington rotations in advance. This finding also provides new information for solar dynamo modeling.

A probability index for surface zonda wind occurrence at Mendoza city through vertical sounding principal components analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Otero, Federico; Norte, Federico; Araneo, Diego

2018-01-01

The aim of this work is to obtain an index for predicting the probability of occurrence of zonda event at surface level from sounding data at Mendoza city, Argentine. To accomplish this goal, surface zonda wind events were previously found with an objective classification method (OCM) only considering the surface station values. Once obtained the dates and the onset time of each event, the prior closest sounding for each event was taken to realize a principal component analysis (PCA) that is used to identify the leading patterns of the vertical structure of the atmosphere previously to a zonda wind event. These components were used to construct the index model. For the PCA an entry matrix of temperature ( T) and dew point temperature (Td) anomalies for the standard levels between 850 and 300 hPa was build. The analysis yielded six significant components with a 94 % of the variance explained and the leading patterns of favorable weather conditions for the development of the phenomenon were obtained. A zonda/non-zonda indicator c can be estimated by a logistic multiple regressions depending on the PCA component loadings, determining a zonda probability index \\widehat{c} calculable from T and Td profiles and it depends on the climatological features of the region. The index showed 74.7 % efficiency. The same analysis was performed by adding surface values of T and Td from Mendoza Aero station increasing the index efficiency to 87.8 %. The results revealed four significantly correlated PCs with a major improvement in differentiating zonda cases and a reducing of the uncertainty interval.

Occurrence Probabilities of Wet and Dry Periods in Southern Italy through the SPI Evaluated on Synthetic Monthly Precipitation Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tommaso Caloiero

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The present article investigates dry and wet periods in a large area of the Mediterranean basin. First, a stochastic model was applied to a homogeneous database of monthly precipitation values of 46 rain gauges in five regions of southern Italy. In particular, after estimating the model parameters, a set of 104 years of monthly precipitation for each rain gauge was generated by means of a Monte Carlo technique. Then, dry and wet periods were analyzed through the application of the standardized precipitation index (SPI over 3-month and 6-month timespan (short-term and 12-month and 24-month period (long-term. As a result of the SPI application on the generated monthly precipitation series, higher occurrence probabilities of dry conditions than wet conditions have been detected, especially when long-term precipitation scales are considered.

Relative Occurrence of Fasciola species in cattle, sheep and goats ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

All liver flukes detected in cattle, sheep and goats were collected and transported to laboratory for analysis to determine the relative occurrence of Fasciola gigantica and Fasciola hepatic in slaughtered cattle, sheep, and goats by observing their size and morphology. The study showed that all the liver flukes collected in ...

An empirical model of global spread-f occurrence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singleton, D.G.

1974-09-01

A method of combining models of ionospheric F-layer peak electron density and irregularity incremental electron density into a model of the occurrence probability of the frequency spreading component of spread-F is presented. The predictions of the model are compared with spread-F occurrence data obtained under sunspot maximum conditions. Good agreement is obtained for latitudes less than 70 0 geomagnetic. At higher latitudes, the inclusion of a 'blackout factor' in the model allows it to accurately represent the data and, in so doing, resolves an apparent discrepancy in the occurrence statistics at high latitudes. The blackout factor is ascribed to the effect of polar blackout on the spread-F statistics and/or the lack of a definitve incremental electron density model for irregularities at polar latitudes. Ways of isolating these effects and assessing their relative importance in the blackout factor are discussed. The model, besides providing estimates of spread-F occurrence on a worldwide basis, which will be of value in the engineering of HF and VHF communications, also furnishes a means of further checking the irregularity incremental electron density model on which it is based. (author)

OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS: ASSESSMENT FROM HISTORICAL PROXY DATA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Usoskin, Ilya G.; Kovaltsov, Gennady A.

2012-01-01

The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with proton fluence (>30 MeV) F 30 ≥ 10 10 cm –2 is evaluated based on data on the cosmogenic isotopes 14 C and 10 Be in terrestrial archives covering centennial-millennial timescales. Four potential candidates with F 30 = (1-1.5) × 10 10 cm –2 and no events with F 30 > 2 × 10 10 cm –2 are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved 10 Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11,400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F 30 = (1-3) × 10 10 cm –2 are found and clearly no event with F 30 > 5 × 10 10 cm –2 (50 times the SPE of 1956 February 23) has occurred. These values serve as observational upper limits on the strength of SPEs on the timescale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates for extreme SPEs. We build a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. Practical limits can be set as F 30 ≈ 1, 2-3, and 5×10 10 cm –2 for occurrence probabilities ≈10 –2 , 10 –3 , and 10 –4 yr –1 , respectively. Because of the uncertainties, our results should be interpreted as a conservative upper limit on the SPE occurrence near Earth. The mean solar energetic particle (SEP) flux is evaluated as ≈40 (cm 2 s) –1 , in agreement with estimates from lunar rocks. On average, extreme SPEs contribute about 10% to the total SEP fluence.

On the occurrence of rainstorm damage based on home insurance and weather data

Science.gov (United States)

Spekkers, M. H.; Clemens, F. H. L. R.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

2015-02-01

Rainstorm damage caused by the malfunction of urban drainage systems and water intrusion due to defects in the building envelope can be considerable. Little research on this topic focused on the collection of damage data, the understanding of damage mechanisms and the deepening of data analysis methods. In this paper, the relative contribution of different failure mechanisms to the occurrence of rainstorm damage is investigated, as well as the extent to which these mechanisms relate to weather variables. For a case study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, a property level home insurance database of around 3100 water-related damage claims was analysed. The records include comprehensive transcripts of communication between insurer, insured and damage assessment experts, which allowed claims to be classified according to their actual damage cause. The results show that roof and wall leakage is the most frequent failure mechanism causing precipitation-related claims, followed by blocked roof gutters, melting snow and sewer flooding. Claims related to sewer flooding were less present in the data, but are associated with significantly larger claim sizes than claims in the majority class, i.e. roof and wall leakages. Rare events logistic regression analysis revealed that maximum rainfall intensity and rainfall volume are significant predictors for the occurrence probability of precipitation-related claims. Moreover, it was found that claims associated with rainfall intensities smaller than 7-8 mm in a 60-min window are mainly related to failure processes in the private domain, such as roof and wall leakages. For rainfall events that exceed the 7-8 mm h-1 threshold, the failure of systems in the public domain, such as sewer systems, start to contribute considerably to the overall occurrence probability of claims. The communication transcripts, however, lacked information to be conclusive about to which extent sewer-related claims were caused by overloading of sewer systems or

Quantitative estimation of the human error probability during soft control operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Seung Jun; Kim, Jaewhan; Jung, Wondea

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► An HRA method to evaluate execution HEP for soft control operations was proposed. ► The soft control tasks were analyzed and design-related influencing factors were identified. ► An application to evaluate the effects of soft controls was performed. - Abstract: In this work, a method was proposed for quantifying human errors that can occur during operation executions using soft controls. Soft controls of advanced main control rooms have totally different features from conventional controls, and thus they may have different human error modes and occurrence probabilities. It is important to identify the human error modes and quantify the error probability for evaluating the reliability of the system and preventing errors. This work suggests an evaluation framework for quantifying the execution error probability using soft controls. In the application result, it was observed that the human error probabilities of soft controls showed both positive and negative results compared to the conventional controls according to the design quality of advanced main control rooms

Alcohol Increases Delay and Probability Discounting of Condom-Protected Sex: A Novel Vector for Alcohol-Related HIV Transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Patrick S; Sweeney, Mary M; Herrmann, Evan S; Johnson, Matthew W

2016-06-01

Alcohol use, especially at binge levels, is associated with sexual HIV risk behavior, but the mechanisms through which alcohol increases sexual risk taking are not well-examined. Delay discounting, that is, devaluation of future consequences as a function of delay to their occurrence, has been implicated in a variety of problem behaviors, including risky sexual behavior. Probability discounting is studied with a similar framework as delay discounting, but is a distinct process in which a consequence is devalued because it is uncertain or probabilistic. Twenty-three, nondependent alcohol users (13 male, 10 female; mean age = 25.3 years old) orally consumed alcohol (1 g/kg) or placebo in 2 separate experimental sessions. During sessions, participants completed tasks examining delay and probability discounting of hypothetical condom-protected sex (Sexual Delay Discounting Task, Sexual Probability Discounting Task) and of hypothetical and real money. Alcohol decreased the likelihood that participants would wait to have condom-protected sex versus having immediate, unprotected sex. Alcohol also decreased the likelihood that participants would use an immediately available condom given a specified level of sexually transmitted infection (STI) risk. Alcohol did not affect delay discounting of money, but it did increase participants' preferences for larger, probabilistic monetary rewards over smaller, certain rewards. Acute, binge-level alcohol intoxication may increase sexual HIV risk by decreasing willingness to delay sex in order to acquire a condom in situations where one is not immediately available, and by decreasing sensitivity to perceived risk of STI contraction. These findings suggest that delay and probability discounting are critical, but heretofore unrecognized, processes that may mediate the relations between alcohol use and HIV risk. Copyright © 2016 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

DOE Safety Metrics Indicator Program (SMIP) Fiscal Year 2000 Annual Report of Packaging- and Transportation-related Occurrences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dickerson, L.S.

2001-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS) is an interactive computer system designed to support DOE-owned or -operated facilities in reporting and processing information concerning occurrences related to facility operations. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been charged by the DOE National Transportation Program Albuquerque (NTPA) with the responsibility of retrieving reports and information pertaining to packaging and transportation (P and T) incidents from the centralized ORPS database. These selected reports are analyzed for safety concerns, trends, potential impact on P and T operations, and ''lessons learned'' in P and T safety. To support this analysis and trending, the Safety Metrics Indicator Program (SMIP) was established by the NTPA in fiscal year (FY) 1998. Its chief goal is to augment historical reporting of occurrence-based information by providing (1) management notification of those incidents that require attention, (2) an accurate picture of contractors' P and T-related performance, and (3) meaningful statistics on occurrences at particular sites, including comparisons among different contractor sites and between DOE and the private sector. This annual report contains information on those P and T-related occurrences reported to the ORPS during the period from October 1, 1999, through September 30, 2000. Only those incidents that occur in preparation for transport, during transport, and during unloading of hazardous material are considered as packaging- or transportation-related occurrences

Cueing spatial attention through timing and probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Girardi, Giovanna; Antonucci, Gabriella; Nico, Daniele

2013-01-01

Even when focused on an effortful task we retain the ability to detect salient environmental information, and even irrelevant visual stimuli can be automatically detected. However, to which extent unattended information affects attentional control is not fully understood. Here we provide evidences of how the brain spontaneously organizes its cognitive resources by shifting attention between a selective-attending and a stimulus-driven modality within a single task. Using a spatial cueing paradigm we investigated the effect of cue-target asynchronies as a function of their probabilities of occurrence (i.e., relative frequency). Results show that this accessory information modulates attentional shifts. A valid spatial cue improved participants' performance as compared to an invalid one only in trials in which target onset was highly predictable because of its more robust occurrence. Conversely, cuing proved ineffective when spatial cue and target were associated according to a less frequent asynchrony. These patterns of response depended on asynchronies' probability and not on their duration. Our findings clearly demonstrate that through a fine decision-making, performed trial-by-trial, the brain utilizes implicit information to decide whether or not voluntarily shifting spatial attention. As if according to a cost-planning strategy, the cognitive effort of shifting attention depending on the cue is performed only when the expected advantages are higher. In a trade-off competition for cognitive resources, voluntary/automatic attending may thus be a more complex process than expected. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probability of occurrence of monthly and seasonal winter precipitation over Northwest India based on antecedent-monthly precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dimri, A. P.; Osuri, Krishna K.

2018-05-01

Winter (December, January, and February (DJF)) precipitation over northwest India (NWI) is mainly associated with the eastward moving mid-latitude synoptic systems, western disturbances (WDs), embedded within the subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), and is crucial for Rabi (DJF) crops. In this study, the role of winter precipitation at seasonal and monthly scale over NWI and its nine meteorological subdivisions has been analyzed. High-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded precipitation data set of India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period of 1901-2013 is used. Results indicated that the seasonal precipitation over NWI is below (above) the long-term mean in most of the years, when precipitation in any of the month (December/January/February) is in deficit (excess). The contribution of December precipitation (15-20%) to the seasonal (DJF) precipitation is lesser than January (35-40%) and February (35-50%) over all the subdivisions. December (0.60), January (0.57), and February (0.69) precipitation is in-phase (correlation) with the corresponding winter season precipitation. However, January precipitation is not in-phase with the corresponding December (0.083) and February (-0.03) precipitation, while December is in-phase with the February (0.21). When monthly precipitation (December or January or December-January or February) at subdivision level over NWI is excess (deficit); then, the probability of occurrence of seasonal excess (deficit) precipitation is high (almost nil). When antecedent-monthly precipitation is a deficit or excess, the probability of monthly (January or February or January + February) precipitation to be a normal category is >60% over all the subdivisions. This study concludes that the December precipitation is a good indicator to estimate the performance of January, February, January-February, and the seasonal (DJF) precipitation.

Probability model for analyzing fire management alternatives: theory and structure

Science.gov (United States)

Frederick W. Bratten

1982-01-01

A theoretical probability model has been developed for analyzing program alternatives in fire management. It includes submodels or modules for predicting probabilities of fire behavior, fire occurrence, fire suppression, effects of fire on land resources, and financial effects of fire. Generalized "fire management situations" are used to represent actual fire...

Incidence Probability of Delayed Health Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdel-Ghani, A.H.; El-Naggar, A.M.; El-Kadi, A.A.

2000-01-01

During the first international Conference on the long -term consequences of the Chernobyl disaster in 1995 at Kiev, and also during the 1996 International Conference at Vienna, Summing up the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, the data regarding the delayed health consequences were mainly related to thyroid cancer, hereditary disorders, general morbidity, mortality and psychological disturbances. Contrary to expectations, the incidences of Leukemia and Soft Tissue tumors were similar to the spontaneous incident. The expected delayed effects, however, among the accident survivors, the liquidators and populations resident in contaminated areas would show higher incidence probability to Leukemia. These population groups have been continuously exposed to low level radiation both externally and internally. Application of the new ICRP concept of radiation-induced Detriment, and the Nominal Probability Coefficient for Cancer and hereditary effects for both workers and populations are used as the rationale to calculate the incidence probability of occurrence of delayed health effects of the Chernobyl accidents

Assigning probability gain for precursors of four large Chinese earthquakes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cao, T.; Aki, K.

1983-03-10

We extend the concept of probability gain associated with a precursor (Aki, 1981) to a set of precursors which may be mutually dependent. Making use of a new formula, we derive a criterion for selecting precursors from a given data set in order to calculate the probability gain. The probabilities per unit time immediately before four large Chinese earthquakes are calculated. They are approximately 0.09, 0.09, 0.07 and 0.08 per day for 1975 Haicheng (M = 7.3), 1976 Tangshan (M = 7.8), 1976 Longling (M = 7.6), and Songpan (M = 7.2) earthquakes, respectively. These results are encouraging because they suggest that the investigated precursory phenomena may have included the complete information for earthquake prediction, at least for the above earthquakes. With this method, the step-by-step approach to prediction used in China may be quantified in terms of the probability of earthquake occurrence. The ln P versus t curve (where P is the probability of earthquake occurrence at time t) shows that ln P does not increase with t linearly but more rapidly as the time of earthquake approaches.

On the Probability of Occurrence of Clusters in Abelian Sandpile Model

OpenAIRE

Moradi, M.; Rouhani, S.

2004-01-01

We have performed extensive simulations on the Abelian Sandpile Model (ASM) on square lattice. We have estimated the probability of observation of many clusters. Some are in good agreement with previous analytical results, while some show discrepancies between simulation and analytical results.

Packaging- and transportation-related occurrence reports, October-December 1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Welch, M.J.; Dickerson, L.S.; Armstrong, C.J.

1995-02-01

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Packaging and Transportation Safety Program (PATS), which is sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environment, Safety and Health, Office of Facility Safety Analysis, EH-32, has been charged with the responsibility of retrieving reports and information pertaining to transportation or packaging incidents from the Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS). These selected reports are being analyzed for trends, impact on EH-32 policies and concerns, and lessons learned concerning transportation and packaging safety. This task is designed not only to keep EH-32 aware of current packaging and transportation incidents and potential transportation and packaging problems that may need attention on DOE sites but also to allow future dissemination of lessons learned to the Operations Offices and, subsequently, to management and operating contractors. This report, which covers the period from October 2 to December 31, 1994, covers the weekly tabular reports OR-94-40 through OR-94-52. These 12 reports, which contained a total of 75 occurrence reports (ORs) relating to packaging and transportation issues, were submitted to EH-32 for its information and use during this quarter. The 75 ORs that were selected from the hundreds reviewed are listed. The second column of Table I contains the PATS nature of occurrence (NOC) coding for the respective OR, and the third column lists the weekly report issue in which the OR was originally transmitted to DOE-Headquarters (HQ). The Lesson Learned bulletins produced this quarter are included. These two bulletins have been distributed to a large packaging and transportation safety audience and are included as a natural outgrowth of the quarterly reports

OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS: ASSESSMENT FROM HISTORICAL PROXY DATA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Usoskin, Ilya G. [Sodankylae Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit) and Department of Physical Sciences, University of Oulu, FIN-90014 Oulu (Finland); Kovaltsov, Gennady A., E-mail: ilya.usoskin@oulu.fi [Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute of RAS, 194021 St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

2012-09-20

The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with proton fluence (>30 MeV) F{sub 30} {>=} 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} is evaluated based on data on the cosmogenic isotopes {sup 14}C and {sup 10}Be in terrestrial archives covering centennial-millennial timescales. Four potential candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-1.5) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} and no events with F{sub 30} > 2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved {sup 10}Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11,400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-3) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are found and clearly no event with F{sub 30} > 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} (50 times the SPE of 1956 February 23) has occurred. These values serve as observational upper limits on the strength of SPEs on the timescale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates for extreme SPEs. We build a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. Practical limits can be set as F{sub 30} Almost-Equal-To 1, 2-3, and 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} for occurrence probabilities Almost-Equal-To 10{sup -2}, 10{sup -3}, and 10{sup -4} yr{sup -1}, respectively. Because of the uncertainties, our results should be interpreted as a conservative upper limit on the SPE occurrence near Earth. The mean solar energetic particle (SEP) flux is evaluated as Almost-Equal-To 40 (cm{sup 2} s){sup -1}, in agreement with estimates from lunar rocks. On average, extreme SPEs contribute about 10% to the total SEP fluence.

Probability laws related to the Jacobi theta and Riemann zeta function and Brownian excursions

OpenAIRE

Biane, P.; Pitman, J.; Yor, M.

1999-01-01

This paper reviews known results which connect Riemann's integral representations of his zeta function, involving Jacobi's theta function and its derivatives, to some particular probability laws governing sums of independent exponential variables. These laws are related to one-dimensional Brownian motion and to higher dimensional Bessel processes. We present some characterizations of these probability laws, and some approximations of Riemann's zeta function which are related to these laws.

On the occurrence of rainstorm damage based on home insurance and weather data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. H. Spekkers

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Rainstorm damage caused by the malfunction of urban drainage systems and water intrusion due to defects in the building envelope can be considerable. Little research on this topic focused on the collection of damage data, the understanding of damage mechanisms and the deepening of data analysis methods. In this paper, the relative contribution of different failure mechanisms to the occurrence of rainstorm damage is investigated, as well as the extent to which these mechanisms relate to weather variables. For a case study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, a property level home insurance database of around 3100 water-related damage claims was analysed. The records include comprehensive transcripts of communication between insurer, insured and damage assessment experts, which allowed claims to be classified according to their actual damage cause. The results show that roof and wall leakage is the most frequent failure mechanism causing precipitation-related claims, followed by blocked roof gutters, melting snow and sewer flooding. Claims related to sewer flooding were less present in the data, but are associated with significantly larger claim sizes than claims in the majority class, i.e. roof and wall leakages. Rare events logistic regression analysis revealed that maximum rainfall intensity and rainfall volume are significant predictors for the occurrence probability of precipitation-related claims. Moreover, it was found that claims associated with rainfall intensities smaller than 7–8 mm in a 60-min window are mainly related to failure processes in the private domain, such as roof and wall leakages. For rainfall events that exceed the 7–8 mm h−1 threshold, the failure of systems in the public domain, such as sewer systems, start to contribute considerably to the overall occurrence probability of claims. The communication transcripts, however, lacked information to be conclusive about to which extent sewer-related claims were caused by

Life time forecasting method upon occurrence of stress corrosion cracking of structure and test device therefor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anzai, Hideya; Kida, Toshitaka; Urayama, Yoshinao; Kikuchi, Eiji; Shimanuki, Sei; Kuniya, Jiro; Nakata, Kiyotomo; Izumitani, Masakiyo; Hattori, Shigeo.

1993-01-01

A load stress is applied to a metal piece made of a material identical with the constituent material of a structure and having the sensitivity enhanced to a predetermined level, and plurality of such pieces are immersed in a corrosive circumstance in this state. Then, the time from the immersion till the rupture thereof and the number of ruptured pieces of the metal pieces are detected while observing them. The relation with the probability of rupture is plotted on a paper to determine the life time for the occurrence of minimum stress corrosion creacks (SSC) of the metal pieces. Based on the relationship between the previously determined stress and the life time for the occurrence of minimum SSC, the ratio between the life time for the occurrence of minimum SSC relative to estimated stress applied to the structure and the life time for the occurrence of minimum SSC relative to the stress applied to the metal pieces is determined as a first SSC acceleration rate. The ratio between the time of occurrence for minimum SSC and the sensitivity is determined as a second SSC acceleration rate. The first and the second SSC acceleration rates are multiplied to estimate the time for the occurrence of SSC of the structure. Then, the life time for the occurrence of SSC for the equipments and structures can be recognized quantitatively, to prevent ruptures of actual equipments and extend the life time. (N.H.)

Scaling Qualitative Probability

OpenAIRE

Burgin, Mark

2017-01-01

There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

2004-01-01

Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

Active Longitude and Solar Flare Occurrences

Science.gov (United States)

Gyenge, N.; Ludmány, A.; Baranyi, T.

2016-02-01

The aim of the present work is to specify the spatio-temporal characteristics of flare activity observed by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) in connection with the behavior of the longitudinal domain of enhanced sunspot activity known as active longitude (AL). By using our method developed for this purpose, we identified the AL in every Carrington Rotation provided by the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data. The spatial probability of flare occurrence has been estimated depending on the longitudinal distance from AL in the northern and southern hemispheres separately. We have found that more than 60% of the RHESSI and GOES flares is located within +/- 36^\\circ from the AL. Hence, the most flare-productive active regions tend to be located in or close to the active longitudinal belt. This observed feature may allow for the prediction of the geo-effective position of the domain of enhanced flaring probability. Furthermore, we studied the temporal properties of flare occurrence near the AL and several significant fluctuations were found. More precisely, the results of the method are the following fluctuations: 0.8, 1.3, and 1.8 years. These temporal and spatial properties of the solar flare occurrence within the active longitudinal belts could provide us with an enhanced solar flare forecasting opportunity.

Occurrence and properties of Petunia peroxidase a

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hendriks, T.

1989-01-01

Peroxidases are probably the most extensively studied enzymes in higher plants. Various isoenzymes occur as soluble proteins in the apoplast and in the vacuole, or are bound to membranes and cell walls. Their occurrence is often organ-specific and developmentally controlled, and there is

Probabilistic Assessment of the Occurrence and Duration of Ice Accretion on Cables

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Roldsgaard, Joan Hee; Georgakis, Christos Thomas; Faber, Michael Havbro

2015-01-01

This paper presents an operational framework for assessing the probability of occurrence of in-cloud and precipitation icing and its duration. The framework utilizes the features of the Bayesian Probabilistic Networks. and its performance is illustrated through a case study of the cable-stayed...... Oresund Bridge. The Bayesian Probabilistic Network model used for the estimation of the occurrence and duration probabilities is studied and it is found to be robust with respect to changes in the choice of distribution types used to model the meteorological variables that influence the two icing...

Quantifying seining detection probability for fishes of Great Plains sand‐bed rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Mollenhauer, Robert; Logue, Daniel R.; Brewer, Shannon K.

2018-01-01

Species detection error (i.e., imperfect and variable detection probability) is an essential consideration when investigators map distributions and interpret habitat associations. When fish detection error that is due to highly variable instream environments needs to be addressed, sand‐bed streams of the Great Plains represent a unique challenge. We quantified seining detection probability for diminutive Great Plains fishes across a range of sampling conditions in two sand‐bed rivers in Oklahoma. Imperfect detection resulted in underestimates of species occurrence using naïve estimates, particularly for less common fishes. Seining detection probability also varied among fishes and across sampling conditions. We observed a quadratic relationship between water depth and detection probability, in which the exact nature of the relationship was species‐specific and dependent on water clarity. Similarly, the direction of the relationship between water clarity and detection probability was species‐specific and dependent on differences in water depth. The relationship between water temperature and detection probability was also species dependent, where both the magnitude and direction of the relationship varied among fishes. We showed how ignoring detection error confounded an underlying relationship between species occurrence and water depth. Despite imperfect and heterogeneous detection, our results support that determining species absence can be accomplished with two to six spatially replicated seine hauls per 200‐m reach under average sampling conditions; however, required effort would be higher under certain conditions. Detection probability was low for the Arkansas River Shiner Notropis girardi, which is federally listed as threatened, and more than 10 seine hauls per 200‐m reach would be required to assess presence across sampling conditions. Our model allows scientists to estimate sampling effort to confidently assess species occurrence, which

Consistent probabilities in loop quantum cosmology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Craig, David A; Singh, Parampreet

2013-01-01

A fundamental issue for any quantum cosmological theory is to specify how probabilities can be assigned to various quantum events or sequences of events such as the occurrence of singularities or bounces. In previous work, we have demonstrated how this issue can be successfully addressed within the consistent histories approach to quantum theory for Wheeler–DeWitt-quantized cosmological models. In this work, we generalize that analysis to the exactly solvable loop quantization of a spatially flat, homogeneous and isotropic cosmology sourced with a massless, minimally coupled scalar field known as sLQC. We provide an explicit, rigorous and complete decoherent-histories formulation for this model and compute the probabilities for the occurrence of a quantum bounce versus a singularity. Using the scalar field as an emergent internal time, we show for generic states that the probability for a singularity to occur in this model is zero, and that of a bounce is unity, complementing earlier studies of the expectation values of the volume and matter density in this theory. We also show from the consistent histories point of view that all states in this model, whether quantum or classical, achieve arbitrarily large volume in the limit of infinite ‘past’ or ‘future’ scalar ‘time’, in the sense that the wave function evaluated at any arbitrary fixed value of the volume vanishes in that limit. Finally, we briefly discuss certain misconceptions concerning the utility of the consistent histories approach in these models. (paper)

Eruption probabilities for the Lassen Volcanic Center and regional volcanism, northern California, and probabilities for large explosive eruptions in the Cascade Range

Science.gov (United States)

Nathenson, Manuel; Clynne, Michael A.; Muffler, L.J. Patrick

2012-01-01

Chronologies for eruptive activity of the Lassen Volcanic Center and for eruptions from the regional mafic vents in the surrounding area of the Lassen segment of the Cascade Range are here used to estimate probabilities of future eruptions. For the regional mafic volcanism, the ages of many vents are known only within broad ranges, and two models are developed that should bracket the actual eruptive ages. These chronologies are used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to match the data for time intervals between eruptions. For the Lassen Volcanic Center, the probability of an eruption in the next year is 1.4x10-4 for the exponential distribution and 2.3x10-4 for the mixed exponential distribution. For the regional mafic vents, the exponential distribution gives a probability of an eruption in the next year of 6.5x10-4, but the mixed exponential distribution indicates that the current probability, 12,000 years after the last event, could be significantly lower. For the exponential distribution, the highest probability is for an eruption from a regional mafic vent. Data on areas and volumes of lava flows and domes of the Lassen Volcanic Center and of eruptions from the regional mafic vents provide constraints on the probable sizes of future eruptions. Probabilities of lava-flow coverage are similar for the Lassen Volcanic Center and for regional mafic vents, whereas the probable eruptive volumes for the mafic vents are generally smaller. Data have been compiled for large explosive eruptions (>≈ 5 km3 in deposit volume) in the Cascade Range during the past 1.2 m.y. in order to estimate probabilities of eruption. For erupted volumes >≈5 km3, the rate of occurrence since 13.6 ka is much higher than for the entire period, and we use these data to calculate the annual probability of a large eruption at 4.6x10-4. For erupted volumes ≥10 km3, the rate of occurrence has been reasonably constant from 630 ka to the present, giving

Modeling co-occurrence of northern spotted and barred owls: accounting for detection probability differences

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Larissa L.; Reid, Janice A.; Forsman, Eric D.; Nichols, James D.

2009-01-01

Barred owls (Strix varia) have recently expanded their range and now encompass the entire range of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). This expansion has led to two important issues of concern for management of northern spotted owls: (1) possible competitive interactions between the two species that could contribute to population declines of northern spotted owls, and (2) possible changes in vocalization behavior and detection probabilities of northern spotted owls induced by presence of barred owls. We used a two-species occupancy model to investigate whether there was evidence of competitive exclusion between the two species at study locations in Oregon, USA. We simultaneously estimated detection probabilities for both species and determined if the presence of one species influenced the detection of the other species. Model selection results and associated parameter estimates provided no evidence that barred owls excluded spotted owls from territories. We found strong evidence that detection probabilities differed for the two species, with higher probabilities for northern spotted owls that are the object of current surveys. Non-detection of barred owls is very common in surveys for northern spotted owls, and detection of both owl species was negatively influenced by the presence of the congeneric species. Our results suggest that analyses directed at hypotheses of barred owl effects on demographic or occupancy vital rates of northern spotted owls need to deal adequately with imperfect and variable detection probabilities for both species.

Probability of misclassifying biological elements in surface waters.

Science.gov (United States)

Loga, Małgorzata; Wierzchołowska-Dziedzic, Anna

2017-11-24

Measurement uncertainties are inherent to assessment of biological indices of water bodies. The effect of these uncertainties on the probability of misclassification of ecological status is the subject of this paper. Four Monte-Carlo (M-C) models were applied to simulate the occurrence of random errors in the measurements of metrics corresponding to four biological elements of surface waters: macrophytes, phytoplankton, phytobenthos, and benthic macroinvertebrates. Long series of error-prone measurement values of these metrics, generated by M-C models, were used to identify cases in which values of any of the four biological indices lay outside of the "true" water body class, i.e., outside the class assigned from the actual physical measurements. Fraction of such cases in the M-C generated series was used to estimate the probability of misclassification. The method is particularly useful for estimating the probability of misclassification of the ecological status of surface water bodies in the case of short sequences of measurements of biological indices. The results of the Monte-Carlo simulations show a relatively high sensitivity of this probability to measurement errors of the river macrophyte index (MIR) and high robustness to measurement errors of the benthic macroinvertebrate index (MMI). The proposed method of using Monte-Carlo models to estimate the probability of misclassification has significant potential for assessing the uncertainty of water body status reported to the EC by the EU member countries according to WFD. The method can be readily applied also in risk assessment of water management decisions before adopting the status dependent corrective actions.

Prediction suppression in monkey inferotemporal cortex depends on the conditional probability between images.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramachandran, Suchitra; Meyer, Travis; Olson, Carl R

2016-01-01

When monkeys view two images in fixed sequence repeatedly over days and weeks, neurons in area TE of the inferotemporal cortex come to exhibit prediction suppression. The trailing image elicits only a weak response when presented following the leading image that preceded it during training. Induction of prediction suppression might depend either on the contiguity of the images, as determined by their co-occurrence and captured in the measure of joint probability P(A,B), or on their contingency, as determined by their correlation and as captured in the measures of conditional probability P(A|B) and P(B|A). To distinguish between these possibilities, we measured prediction suppression after imposing training regimens that held P(A,B) constant but varied P(A|B) and P(B|A). We found that reducing either P(A|B) or P(B|A) during training attenuated prediction suppression as measured during subsequent testing. We conclude that prediction suppression depends on contingency, as embodied in the predictive relations between the images, and not just on contiguity, as embodied in their co-occurrence. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities in the lattice of subspaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vourdas, A.

2014-01-01

The orthocomplemented modular lattice of subspaces L[H(d)], of a quantum system with d-dimensional Hilbert space H(d), is considered. A generalized additivity relation which holds for Kolmogorov probabilities is violated by quantum probabilities in the full lattice L[H(d)] (it is only valid within the Boolean subalgebras of L[H(d)]). This suggests the use of more general (than Kolmogorov) probability theories, and here the Dempster-Shafer probability theory is adopted. An operator D(H 1 ,H 2 ), which quantifies deviations from Kolmogorov probability theory is introduced, and it is shown to be intimately related to the commutator of the projectors P(H 1 ),P(H 2 ), to the subspaces H 1 , H 2 . As an application, it is shown that the proof of the inequalities of Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt for a system of two spin 1/2 particles is valid for Kolmogorov probabilities, but it is not valid for Dempster-Shafer probabilities. The violation of these inequalities in experiments supports the interpretation of quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities

Probability analysis of nuclear power plant hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kovacs, Z.

1985-01-01

The probability analysis of risk is described used for quantifying the risk of complex technological systems, especially of nuclear power plants. Risk is defined as the product of the probability of the occurrence of a dangerous event and the significance of its consequences. The process of the analysis may be divided into the stage of power plant analysis to the point of release of harmful material into the environment (reliability analysis) and the stage of the analysis of the consequences of this release and the assessment of the risk. The sequence of operations is characterized in the individual stages. The tasks are listed which Czechoslovakia faces in the development of the probability analysis of risk, and the composition is recommended of the work team for coping with the task. (J.C.)

A new expression of the probability distribution in Incomplete Statistics and fundamental thermodynamic relations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang Zhifu; Lin Bihong; ChenJincan

2009-01-01

In order to overcome the limitations of the original expression of the probability distribution appearing in literature of Incomplete Statistics, a new expression of the probability distribution is derived, where the Lagrange multiplier β introduced here is proved to be identical with that introduced in the second and third choices for the internal energy constraint in Tsallis' statistics and to be just equal to the physical inverse temperature. It is expounded that the probability distribution described by the new expression is invariant through uniform translation of the energy spectrum. Moreover, several fundamental thermodynamic relations are given and the relationship between the new and the original expressions of the probability distribution is discussed.

Probability Distribution of Long-run Indiscriminate Felling of Trees in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Bright

conditionally independent of every prior state given the current state (Obodos, ... of events or experiments in which the probability of occurrence for an event ... represent the exhaustive and mutually exclusive outcomes (states) of a system at.

In favor of general probability distributions: lateral prefrontal and insular cortices respond to stimulus inherent, but irrelevant differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Mestres-Missé, Anna; Trampel, Robert; Turner, Robert; Kotz, Sonja A

2016-04-01

A key aspect of optimal behavior is the ability to predict what will come next. To achieve this, we must have a fairly good idea of the probability of occurrence of possible outcomes. This is based both on prior knowledge about a particular or similar situation and on immediately relevant new information. One question that arises is: when considering converging prior probability and external evidence, is the most probable outcome selected or does the brain represent degrees of uncertainty, even highly improbable ones? Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, the current study explored these possibilities by contrasting words that differ in their probability of occurrence, namely, unbalanced ambiguous words and unambiguous words. Unbalanced ambiguous words have a strong frequency-based bias towards one meaning, while unambiguous words have only one meaning. The current results reveal larger activation in lateral prefrontal and insular cortices in response to dominant ambiguous compared to unambiguous words even when prior and contextual information biases one interpretation only. These results suggest a probability distribution, whereby all outcomes and their associated probabilities of occurrence--even if very low--are represented and maintained.

Contextual events related to the occurrence of challenging behavior in educational settings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alba CORTINA SERRA

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Challenging behaviors (CB displayed by people with intellectual disabilities (ID have a negative effect on their quality of life. The operant theory principles emphasize the relationship between these behaviors and the environment where they take place. This study aimed to identify the contextual variables that are closely related to the occurrence of CB exhibited by children who attend a special school by using an indirect functional assessment instrument; the Contextual Assessment Inventory. Therefore, 17 students have participated in this study where a total of 25 behaviors have been assessed. The results suggested that the social/cultural and the nature of the task or activity categories were more strongly associated with the occurrence of CB. Finally, results are discussed in terms of implications for practitioners. Future researches might address the importance of prevention and universal educational systems.

Computational results on the compound binomial risk model with nonhomogeneous claim occurrences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tuncel, A.; Tank, F.

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is to give a recursive formula for non-ruin (survival) probability when the claim occurrences are nonhomogeneous in the compound binomial risk model. We give recursive formulas for non-ruin (survival) probability and for distribution of the total number of claims under the

An novel frequent probability pattern mining algorithm based on circuit simulation method in uncertain biological networks

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Motif mining has always been a hot research topic in bioinformatics. Most of current research on biological networks focuses on exact motif mining. However, due to the inevitable experimental error and noisy data, biological network data represented as the probability model could better reflect the authenticity and biological significance, therefore, it is more biological meaningful to discover probability motif in uncertain biological networks. One of the key steps in probability motif mining is frequent pattern discovery which is usually based on the possible world model having a relatively high computational complexity. Methods In this paper, we present a novel method for detecting frequent probability patterns based on circuit simulation in the uncertain biological networks. First, the partition based efficient search is applied to the non-tree like subgraph mining where the probability of occurrence in random networks is small. Then, an algorithm of probability isomorphic based on circuit simulation is proposed. The probability isomorphic combines the analysis of circuit topology structure with related physical properties of voltage in order to evaluate the probability isomorphism between probability subgraphs. The circuit simulation based probability isomorphic can avoid using traditional possible world model. Finally, based on the algorithm of probability subgraph isomorphism, two-step hierarchical clustering method is used to cluster subgraphs, and discover frequent probability patterns from the clusters. Results The experiment results on data sets of the Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) networks and the transcriptional regulatory networks of E. coli and S. cerevisiae show that the proposed method can efficiently discover the frequent probability subgraphs. The discovered subgraphs in our study contain all probability motifs reported in the experiments published in other related papers. Conclusions The algorithm of probability graph isomorphism

Report on safety related occurrences and reactor trips January 1 - June 30, 1985

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-01-01

This is a systematically arranged report on all safety-related occurrences and reacotr trips in Swedish nuclear power plants in operation during the period from January 1 to June 30 1985. It is based on the reports submitted by the utilities to the Swedish Nuclear power Inspectorate according to Technical Specifications. Twice a year since 1974 the Inspectorate has issued a compilation on such reported occurrences and reactor trips. Starting with the compilation of the second half of 1982 some new features have been introduced. The most important change is that the volume of information has been increased. The full test, provided by the utilities when reporting the incidents, is now attached to the codified information and also the layout has been altered to facilitate reading. As in the previous reports the occurrences and reactor trips are arranged both alphabetically by facility name and chronologically by report number for each facility. Electricity generation charts for each facility are also presented. The primary purpose of this report is thus to present all the information furnished by utlities when they submit their reports according the Technical Specifications. The only evaluation made by the Inspecotrate is the categorization on the incidents. Like the previous reports this one also presents frequency of incidents as related to affected component, cause of incident etc. The difference is that only information reported by the utilities is used. This is the reason why a considerable proportion of the incidents are categorized as 'other fault'. (author)

Estimation and prediction of maximum daily rainfall at Sagar Island using best fit probability models

Science.gov (United States)

Mandal, S.; Choudhury, B. U.

2015-07-01

Sagar Island, setting on the continental shelf of Bay of Bengal, is one of the most vulnerable deltas to the occurrence of extreme rainfall-driven climatic hazards. Information on probability of occurrence of maximum daily rainfall will be useful in devising risk management for sustaining rainfed agrarian economy vis-a-vis food and livelihood security. Using six probability distribution models and long-term (1982-2010) daily rainfall data, we studied the probability of occurrence of annual, seasonal and monthly maximum daily rainfall (MDR) in the island. To select the best fit distribution models for annual, seasonal and monthly time series based on maximum rank with minimum value of test statistics, three statistical goodness of fit tests, viz. Kolmogorove-Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson Darling test ( A 2 ) and Chi-Square test ( X 2) were employed. The fourth probability distribution was identified from the highest overall score obtained from the three goodness of fit tests. Results revealed that normal probability distribution was best fitted for annual, post-monsoon and summer seasons MDR, while Lognormal, Weibull and Pearson 5 were best fitted for pre-monsoon, monsoon and winter seasons, respectively. The estimated annual MDR were 50, 69, 86, 106 and 114 mm for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 25 years, respectively. The probability of getting an annual MDR of >50, >100, >150, >200 and >250 mm were estimated as 99, 85, 40, 12 and 03 % level of exceedance, respectively. The monsoon, summer and winter seasons exhibited comparatively higher probabilities (78 to 85 %) for MDR of >100 mm and moderate probabilities (37 to 46 %) for >150 mm. For different recurrence intervals, the percent probability of MDR varied widely across intra- and inter-annual periods. In the island, rainfall anomaly can pose a climatic threat to the sustainability of agricultural production and thus needs adequate adaptation and mitigation measures.

Non-Archimedean Probability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

Using Logistic Regression To Predict the Probability of Debris Flows Occurring in Areas Recently Burned By Wildland Fires

Science.gov (United States)

Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.

2003-01-01

Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of debris flows occurring in areas recently burned by wildland fires. Multiple logistic regression is conceptually similar to multiple linear regression because statistical relations between one dependent variable and several independent variables are evaluated. In logistic regression, however, the dependent variable is transformed to a binary variable (debris flow did or did not occur), and the actual probability of the debris flow occurring is statistically modeled. Data from 399 basins located within 15 wildland fires that burned during 2000-2002 in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and New Mexico were evaluated. More than 35 independent variables describing the burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows were delineated from National Elevation Data using a Geographic Information System (GIS). (2) Data describing the burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were determined for each basin. These data were then downloaded to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression. (3) Relations between the occurrence/non-occurrence of debris flows and burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated and several preliminary multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combination produced the most effective model. The multivariate model that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows was selected. (4) The multivariate logistic regression model was entered into a GIS, and a map showing the probability of debris flows was constructed. The most effective model incorporates the percentage of each basin with slope greater than 30 percent, percentage of land burned at medium and high burn severity

Prediction of accident sequence probabilities in a nuclear power plant due to earthquake events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hudson, J.M.; Collins, J.D.

1980-01-01

This paper presents a methodology to predict accident probabilities in nuclear power plants subject to earthquakes. The resulting computer program accesses response data to compute component failure probabilities using fragility functions. Using logical failure definitions for systems, and the calculated component failure probabilities, initiating event and safety system failure probabilities are synthesized. The incorporation of accident sequence expressions allows the calculation of terminal event probabilities. Accident sequences, with their occurrence probabilities, are finally coupled to a specific release category. A unique aspect of the methodology is an analytical procedure for calculating top event probabilities based on the correlated failure of primary events

Risk analysis of first and last frost occurrences in central Alborz region, Iran

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rahimi, M.; Khalili, A.; Hajjam, S.; Kamali, G.A.; Stigter, C.J.

2007-01-01

Central Alborz is one of the important agricultural regions of Iran. Occurrence of the first frost in fall and the last frost in spring causes damage to the crops in this region every year. Information about the probable dates of frost occurrence helps farmers in preventing or reducing the damages

Analysis of co-occurrence toponyms in web pages based on complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, Xiang; Liu, Jiajun; Gao, Yong; Wu, Lun

2017-01-01

A large number of geographical toponyms exist in web pages and other documents, providing abundant geographical resources for GIS. It is very common for toponyms to co-occur in the same documents. To investigate these relations associated with geographic entities, a novel complex network model for co-occurrence toponyms is proposed. Then, 12 toponym co-occurrence networks are constructed from the toponym sets extracted from the People's Daily Paper documents of 2010. It is found that two toponyms have a high co-occurrence probability if they are at the same administrative level or if they possess a part-whole relationship. By applying complex network analysis methods to toponym co-occurrence networks, we find the following characteristics. (1) The navigation vertices of the co-occurrence networks can be found by degree centrality analysis. (2) The networks express strong cluster characteristics, and it takes only several steps to reach one vertex from another one, implying that the networks are small-world graphs. (3) The degree distribution satisfies the power law with an exponent of 1.7, so the networks are free-scale. (4) The networks are disassortative and have similar assortative modes, with assortative exponents of approximately 0.18 and assortative indexes less than 0. (5) The frequency of toponym co-occurrence is weakly negatively correlated with geographic distance, but more strongly negatively correlated with administrative hierarchical distance. Considering the toponym frequencies and co-occurrence relationships, a novel method based on link analysis is presented to extract the core toponyms from web pages. This method is suitable and effective for geographical information retrieval.

Human errors evaluation for muster in emergency situations applying human error probability index (HEPI, in the oil company warehouse in Hamadan City

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Emergency situation is one of the influencing factors on human error. The aim of this research was purpose to evaluate human error in emergency situation of fire and explosion at the oil company warehouse in Hamadan city applying human error probability index (HEPI. . Material and Method: First, the scenario of emergency situation of those situation of fire and explosion at the oil company warehouse was designed and then maneuver against, was performed. The scaled questionnaire of muster for the maneuver was completed in the next stage. Collected data were analyzed to calculate the probability success for the 18 actions required in an emergency situation from starting point of the muster until the latest action to temporary sheltersafe. .Result: The result showed that the highest probability of error occurrence was related to make safe workplace (evaluation phase with 32.4 % and lowest probability of occurrence error in detection alarm (awareness phase with 1.8 %, probability. The highest severity of error was in the evaluation phase and the lowest severity of error was in the awareness and recovery phase. Maximum risk level was related to the evaluating exit routes and selecting one route and choosy another exit route and minimum risk level was related to the four evaluation phases. . Conclusion: To reduce the risk of reaction in the exit phases of an emergency situation, the following actions are recommended, based on the finding in this study: A periodic evaluation of the exit phase and modifying them if necessary, conducting more maneuvers and analyzing this results along with a sufficient feedback to the employees.

Factors related to occurrence and distribution of selected bacterial and protozoan pathogens in Pennsylvania streams

Science.gov (United States)

Duris, Joseph W.; Reif, Andrew G.; Donna A. Crouse,; Isaacs, Natasha M.

2013-01-01

The occurrence and distribution of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and bacterial and protozoan pathogens are controlled by diverse factors. To investigate these factors in Pennsylvania streams, 217 samples were collected quarterly from a 27-station water-quality monitoring network from July 2007 through August 2009. Samples were analyzed for concentrations of Escherichia coli (EC) and enterococci (ENT) indicator bacteria, concentrations of Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts, and the presence of four genes related to pathogenic types of EC (eaeA, stx2, stx1, rfbO157) plus three microbial source tracking (MST) gene markers that are also associated with pathogenic ENT and EC (esp, LTIIa, STII). Water samples were concurrently analyzed for basic water chemistry, physical measures of water quality, nutrients, metals, and a suite of 79 organic compounds that included hormones, pharmaceuticals, and antibiotics. For each sample location, stream discharge was measured by using standardized methods at the time of sample collection, and ancillary sample site information, such as land use and geological characteristics, was compiled. Samples exceeding recreational water quality criteria were more likely to contain all measured pathogen genes but notCryptosporidium or Giardia (oo)cysts. FIB and Giardia density and frequency of eaeA gene occurrence were significantly related to season. When discharge at a sampling location was high (>75th percentile of daily mean discharge), there were greater densities of FIB and Giardia, and the stx2, rfbO157, STII, and esp genes were found more frequently than at other discharge conditions. Giardia occurrence was likely related to nonpoint sources, which are highly influential during seasonal overland transport resulting from snowmelt and elevated precipitation in late winter and spring in Pennsylvania. When MST markers of human, swine, or bovine origin were present, samples more frequently carried the eaeA, stx2

Packaging- and transportation-related occurrence reports, January--March 1995

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dickerson, L.S.; Welch, M.J.; Armstrong, C.J.

1995-04-01

Reports on transportation/packaging incidents, from the Occurrence Reporting and Processing System, are being analyzed for trends, impact on DOE EH-32 policies and concerns, and lessons learned concerning transportation and packaging safety. Besides keeping EH-32 aware of current incidents and potential problems that may need attention on DOE sites, this task allows future dissemination of lessons learned to the Operations Offices and to management and operating contractors. This report covers the weekly tabular reports OR-95-01 through OR-95-13, which contained a total of 50 occurrence reports

Monte Carlo methods to calculate impact probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Rickman, H.; Wiśniowski, T.; Wajer, P.; Gabryszewski, R.; Valsecchi, G. B.

2014-09-01

infinity, while the Hill sphere method results in a severely underestimated probability. We provide a discussion of the reasons for these differences, and we finally present the results of the MOID method in the form of probability maps for the Earth and Mars on their current orbits. These maps show a relatively flat probability distribution, except for the occurrence of two ridges found at small inclinations and for coinciding projectile/target perihelion distances. Conclusions: Our results verify the standard formulae in the general case, away from the singularities. In fact, severe shortcomings are limited to the immediate vicinity of those extreme orbits. On the other hand, the new Monte Carlo methods can be used without excessive consumption of computer time, and the MOID method avoids the problems associated with the other methods. Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Decoupled choice-driven and stimulus-related activity in parietal neurons may be misrepresented by choice probabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaidel, Adam; DeAngelis, Gregory C; Angelaki, Dora E

2017-09-28

Trial-by-trial correlations between neural responses and choices (choice probabilities) are often interpreted to reflect a causal contribution of neurons to task performance. However, choice probabilities may arise from top-down, rather than bottom-up, signals. We isolated distinct sensory and decision contributions to single-unit activity recorded from the dorsal medial superior temporal (MSTd) and ventral intraparietal (VIP) areas of monkeys during perception of self-motion. Superficially, neurons in both areas show similar tuning curves during task performance. However, tuning in MSTd neurons primarily reflects sensory inputs, whereas choice-related signals dominate tuning in VIP neurons. Importantly, the choice-related activity of VIP neurons is not predictable from their stimulus tuning, and these factors are often confounded in choice probability measurements. This finding was confirmed in a subset of neurons for which stimulus tuning was measured during passive fixation. Our findings reveal decoupled stimulus and choice signals in the VIP area, and challenge our understanding of choice signals in the brain.Choice-related signals in neuronal activity may reflect bottom-up sensory processes, top-down decision-related influences, or a combination of the two. Here the authors report that choice-related activity in VIP neurons is not predictable from their stimulus tuning, and that dominant choice signals can bias the standard metric of choice preference (choice probability).

Relative level of occurrence of the principal heuristics in Nigeria property valuation

OpenAIRE

Iroham C.O.,; Ogunba, O.A.; Oloyede, S.A.

2013-01-01

The neglect of the other principal heuristics namely avaialability, representative and positivity in real estate behaviourial property research as against the exclusive focus on anchoring and adjustment heuristics invariably results to a lopsided research. This work studied the four principal heuristics in property behaviourial property valutaion in a bid to discovering its relative level of occurrence. The study adopted a cross-sectional questionnaire survey approach of 159 of the 270 Head O...

Landslide Probability Assessment by the Derived Distributions Technique

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, E.; Ochoa, A.; Martínez, H.

2012-12-01

Landslides are potentially disastrous events that bring along human and economic losses; especially in cities where an accelerated and unorganized growth leads to settlements on steep and potentially unstable areas. Among the main causes of landslides are geological, geomorphological, geotechnical, climatological, hydrological conditions and anthropic intervention. This paper studies landslides detonated by rain, commonly known as "soil-slip", which characterize by having a superficial failure surface (Typically between 1 and 1.5 m deep) parallel to the slope face and being triggered by intense and/or sustained periods of rain. This type of landslides is caused by changes on the pore pressure produced by a decrease in the suction when a humid front enters, as a consequence of the infiltration initiated by rain and ruled by the hydraulic characteristics of the soil. Failure occurs when this front reaches a critical depth and the shear strength of the soil in not enough to guarantee the stability of the mass. Critical rainfall thresholds in combination with a slope stability model are widely used for assessing landslide probability. In this paper we present a model for the estimation of the occurrence of landslides based on the derived distributions technique. Since the works of Eagleson in the 1970s the derived distributions technique has been widely used in hydrology to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme flows. The model estimates the probability density function (pdf) of the Factor of Safety (FOS) from the statistical behavior of the rainfall process and some slope parameters. The stochastic character of the rainfall is transformed by means of a deterministic failure model into FOS pdf. Exceedance probability and return period estimation is then straightforward. The rainfall process is modeled as a Rectangular Pulses Poisson Process (RPPP) with independent exponential pdf for mean intensity and duration of the storms. The Philip infiltration model

Driving factors for torrential mass-movements occurrence in the Western Alps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Davide eTiranti

2016-02-01

Full Text Available To understand the behaviour of torrential processes in the alpine environment, the conditions mainly responsiblefor the occurrence of these phenomena have to be identified and distinguished(classified aspredisposing and triggering factors. In this regard, this study is aimed to understanding which factors lead to the occurrence of a given torrential processes in alpine catchments in the Western Alps, where information on past events are exhaustive and characterized by a long historical series. More than 769 documented torrential eventsoccurred from 1728 to 2015 within 78 catchments. Datasets concerning climate, geology and morphology, land use and the presence of historical landslide activity have been elaborated as input for multivariate statistical analysis to characterize the behaviour of the catchments. The results pinpoint the factors that mainly drive the type of torrential dominant process occurring in a given catchment, its occurrence probability, and its frequency. This study has demonstrated that catchments characterized by a significant percentage of outcropping rocks show a greater occurrence of torrential processes, especially hyperconcentrated flows and debris flows; on the contrary highly vegetated catchments are typically subject to water flows. This result can be a useful tool for the evaluation of hazards related to this specific phenomenon, making it possible to predict the most likely torrential processes that can be generated in a specific basin, given the characteristics of outcropping rock and vegetation cover.

Neotethyan rifting-related ore occurrences: study of an accretionary mélange complex (Darnó Unit, NE Hungary

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kiss Gabriella B.

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The geology of the NE Hungarian Darnó Unit is rather complicated, as it is composed mostly of a Jurassic accretionary mélange complex, according to the most recent investigations. The magmatic and sedimentary rock blocks of the mélange represent products of different evolutionary stages of the Neotethys; including Permian and Triassic sedimentary rocks of marine rifting related origin, Triassic pillow basalt of advanced rifting related origin and Jurassic pillow basalt originated in back-arc-basin environment. This small unit contains a copper-gold occurrence in the Permian marly-clayey limestone, an iron enrichment in the Triassic sedimentary succession, a copper-silver ore occurrence in Triassic pillow basalts and a copper ore indication, occurring both in the Triassic and Jurassic pillow basalts. The present study deals with the Cu(-Ag occurrence in the Triassic basalt and the Fe occurrence in the Triassic sedimentary succession. The former shows significant similarities with the Michigan-type mineralizations, while the latter has typical characteristics of the Fe-SEDEX deposits. All the above localities fit well into the new geological model of the investigated area. The mineralizations represent the different evolutionary stages of the Neotethyan rifting and an epigenetic, Alpine metamorphism-related process and their recent, spatially close position is the result of the accretionary mélange formation. Thus, the Darnó Unit represents a perfect natural laboratory for studying and understanding the characteristic features of several different rifting related ore forming processes.

Report to Congress on abnormal occurrences, July--September 1977. Quarterly report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1977-11-01

Section 208 of the Energy Reorganization Act of 1974 identifies an abnormal occurrence as an unscheduled incident or event which the Nuclear Regulatory Commission determines to be significant from the standpoint of public health or safety and requires a quarterly report of such events to be made to Congress. This report, the tenth in the series, covers the period July 1 to September 30, 1977. The NRC has determined that during this period there were no abnormal occurrences at the 65 nuclear power plants licensed to operate nor at fuel cycle facilities. There was one abnormal occurrence at other licensee facilities, which involved the loss and recovery of a radioactive source and probable overexposure. This report also contains information updating previously reported abnormal occurrences

Using Co-Occurrence to Evaluate Belief Coherence in a Large Non Clinical Sample

Science.gov (United States)

Pechey, Rachel; Halligan, Peter

2012-01-01

Much of the recent neuropsychological literature on false beliefs (delusions) has tended to focus on individual or single beliefs, with few studies actually investigating the relationship or co-occurrence between different types of co-existing beliefs. Quine and Ullian proposed the hypothesis that our beliefs form an interconnected web in which the beliefs that make up that system must somehow “cohere” with one another and avoid cognitive dissonance. As such beliefs are unlikely to be encapsulated (i.e., exist in isolation from other beliefs). The aim of this preliminary study was to empirically evaluate the probability of belief co-occurrence as one indicator of coherence in a large sample of subjects involving three different thematic sets of beliefs (delusion-like, paranormal & religious, and societal/cultural). Results showed that the degree of belief co-endorsement between beliefs within thematic groupings was greater than random occurrence, lending support to Quine and Ullian’s coherentist account. Some associations, however, were relatively weak, providing for well-established examples of cognitive dissonance. PMID:23155383

Using co-occurrence to evaluate belief coherence in a large non clinical sample.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rachel Pechey

Full Text Available Much of the recent neuropsychological literature on false beliefs (delusions has tended to focus on individual or single beliefs, with few studies actually investigating the relationship or co-occurrence between different types of co-existing beliefs. Quine and Ullian proposed the hypothesis that our beliefs form an interconnected web in which the beliefs that make up that system must somehow "cohere" with one another and avoid cognitive dissonance. As such beliefs are unlikely to be encapsulated (i.e., exist in isolation from other beliefs. The aim of this preliminary study was to empirically evaluate the probability of belief co-occurrence as one indicator of coherence in a large sample of subjects involving three different thematic sets of beliefs (delusion-like, paranormal & religious, and societal/cultural. Results showed that the degree of belief co-endorsement between beliefs within thematic groupings was greater than random occurrence, lending support to Quine and Ullian's coherentist account. Some associations, however, were relatively weak, providing for well-established examples of cognitive dissonance.

A stochastic space-time model for intermittent precipitation occurrences

KAUST Repository

Sun, Ying; Stein, Michael L.

2016-01-01

Modeling a precipitation field is challenging due to its intermittent and highly scale-dependent nature. Motivated by the features of high-frequency precipitation data from a network of rain gauges, we propose a threshold space-time t random field (tRF) model for 15-minute precipitation occurrences. This model is constructed through a space-time Gaussian random field (GRF) with random scaling varying along time or space and time. It can be viewed as a generalization of the purely spatial tRF, and has a hierarchical representation that allows for Bayesian interpretation. Developing appropriate tools for evaluating precipitation models is a crucial part of the model-building process, and we focus on evaluating whether models can produce the observed conditional dry and rain probabilities given that some set of neighboring sites all have rain or all have no rain. These conditional probabilities show that the proposed space-time model has noticeable improvements in some characteristics of joint rainfall occurrences for the data we have considered.

A stochastic space-time model for intermittent precipitation occurrences

KAUST Repository

Sun, Ying

2016-01-28

Modeling a precipitation field is challenging due to its intermittent and highly scale-dependent nature. Motivated by the features of high-frequency precipitation data from a network of rain gauges, we propose a threshold space-time t random field (tRF) model for 15-minute precipitation occurrences. This model is constructed through a space-time Gaussian random field (GRF) with random scaling varying along time or space and time. It can be viewed as a generalization of the purely spatial tRF, and has a hierarchical representation that allows for Bayesian interpretation. Developing appropriate tools for evaluating precipitation models is a crucial part of the model-building process, and we focus on evaluating whether models can produce the observed conditional dry and rain probabilities given that some set of neighboring sites all have rain or all have no rain. These conditional probabilities show that the proposed space-time model has noticeable improvements in some characteristics of joint rainfall occurrences for the data we have considered.

Failure probability of PWR reactor coolant loop piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lo, T.; Woo, H.H.; Holman, G.S.; Chou, C.K.

1984-02-01

This paper describes the results of assessments performed on the PWR coolant loop piping of Westinghouse and Combustion Engineering plants. For direct double-ended guillotine break (DEGB), consideration was given to crack existence probability, initial crack size distribution, hydrostatic proof test, preservice inspection, leak detection probability, crack growth characteristics, and failure criteria based on the net section stress failure and tearing modulus stability concept. For indirect DEGB, fragilities of major component supports were estimated. The system level fragility was then calculated based on the Boolean expression involving these fragilities. Indirect DEGB due to seismic effects was calculated by convolving the system level fragility and the seismic hazard curve. The results indicate that the probability of occurrence of both direct and indirect DEGB is extremely small, thus, postulation of DEGB in design should be eliminated and replaced by more realistic criteria

A probabilistic model for snow avalanche occurrence

Science.gov (United States)

Perona, P.; Miescher, A.; Porporato, A.

2009-04-01

Avalanche hazard forecasting is an important issue in relation to the protection of urbanized environments, ski resorts and of ski-touring alpinists. A critical point is to predict the conditions that trigger the snow mass instability determining the onset and the size of avalanches. On steep terrains the risk of avalanches is known to be related to preceding consistent snowfall events and to subsequent changes in the local climatic conditions. Regression analysis has shown that avalanche occurrence indeed correlates to the amount of snow fallen in consecutive three snowing days and to the state of the settled snow at the ground. Moreover, since different type of avalanches may occur as a result of the interactions of different factors, the process of snow avalanche formation is inherently complex and with some degree of unpredictability. For this reason, although several models assess the risk of avalanche by accounting for all the involved processes with a great detail, a high margin of uncertainty invariably remains. In this work, we explicitly describe such an unpredictable behaviour with an intrinsic noise affecting the processes leading snow instability. Eventually, this sets the basis for a minimalist stochastic model, which allows us to investigate the avalanche dynamics and its statistical properties. We employ a continuous time process with stochastic jumps (snowfalls), deterministic decay (snowmelt and compaction) and state dependent avalanche occurrence (renewals) as a minimalist model for the determination of avalanche size and related intertime occurrence. The physics leading to avalanches is simplified to the extent where only meteorological data and terrain data are necessary to estimate avalanche danger. We explore the analytical formulation of the process and the properties of the probability density function of the avalanche process variables. We also discuss what is the probabilistic link between avalanche size and preceding snowfall event and

Conditional probability of intense rainfall producing high ground concentrations from radioactive plumes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wayland, J.R.

1977-03-01

The overlap of the expanding plume of radioactive material from a hypothetical nuclear accident with rainstorms over dense population areas is considered. The conditional probability of the occurrence of hot spots from intense cellular rainfall is presented

Alternativa para caracterização da condutividade hidráulica saturada do solo utilizando probabilidade de ocorrência Alternative of characterization to the soil hydraulic conductivity utilizing probability of occurrence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria da Glória Bastos de Freitas Mesquita

2007-12-01

Full Text Available A Condutividade Hidráulica Saturada (Ksat devido à sua importância em informar sobre a capacidade de transporte de água, solutos e substâncias químicas no solo deve ser bem caracterizada, pois de um modo geral, seu valor é utilizado nos cálculos de fluxos no solo. Com o objetivo de propor uma alternativa para caracterizá-la, a partir de uma série de dados, utilizou-se a função densidade de probabilidade lognormal para obter os valores da propriedade correspondentes aos níveis de 5 a 95% de probabilidade de ocorrência, visando descrever e indicar melhores valores a serem adotados como Ksat para a área considerada. Como resultado obteve-se uma análise da variável em termos de probabilidade de ocorrência. Essa representação, na medida em que associa o nível de probabilidade ao valor adotado para a propriedade, permite ao pesquisador avaliar o risco na estimativa de medidas dependentes de Ksat, visto que esta propriedade no solo apresenta alta variabilidade.The Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity of the soil (Ksat due to its importance in inform about the capacity of transport of water, solutes and chemical substances in the soil should be well characterized, since in general, this value is used in calculations of flows in the soil. Aiming at proposing an alternative to characterize the Ksat, starting from a series of data, the function density of probability lognormal was used to obtain the values of the property which corresponde to the levels of occurrence probability from 5 to 95%, in order to describe and to indicate better values to be adopted as Ksat for the considered area. As a result, it was obtained an analysis of the values of the variable in terms of occurrence probability. This representation, associating each value to a probability level, allows to the researcher to evaluate the error on estimation of measurements that depend on Ksat, due to the fact that, this property in the soil presents high variability.

Report on safety related occurrences and reactor trips January 1 - June 30, 1984

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-01-01

This is a systematically arranged report on all safety-related occurrences and reactor trips in Swedish nuclear power plants in operation during the period from January 1 to June 30 1984. It is based on the reports submitted by the utilities to the Swedish Nuclear Inspectorate according to Technical Specifications. Twice a year since 1974 the Inspectorate has issued a compilation on such reported occurrences and reactor trips. Starting with the compilation of the second half of 1982 some new features have been introduced. The most important change is that the volume of information has been increased. The full text, provided by the utilities when reporting the incidents, is now attached to the codified information and also the layout has been altered to facilitate reading. As in the previous reports the occurrences and reactor trips are arranged both alphabetically by facility name and chronologically by report number for each facility. Electricity generation charts for each facility are also presented. The primary purpose of this report is thus to present all the information furnished by the utilities when they submit their reports according to Technical Specifications. The only evaluation made by the Inspectorate is the categorization on the incidents. Like the previous reports this one also presents frequency of incidents as related to affected component, cause of incident etc. The difference is that only information reported by the utilities is used. This is the reason why a considerable proportion of the incidents are categorized as other component or other fault. Sometime in the future, however, the Inspectorate plants to put out a special report containing its own analyses of the most interesting events along with processed statistics and other information. (author)

Edge Probability and Pixel Relativity-Based Speckle Reducing Anisotropic Diffusion.

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, Deepak; Chaudhury, Santanu; Sarkar, Mukul; Soin, Arvinder Singh; Sharma, Vivek

2018-02-01

Anisotropic diffusion filters are one of the best choices for speckle reduction in the ultrasound images. These filters control the diffusion flux flow using local image statistics and provide the desired speckle suppression. However, inefficient use of edge characteristics results in either oversmooth image or an image containing misinterpreted spurious edges. As a result, the diagnostic quality of the images becomes a concern. To alleviate such problems, a novel anisotropic diffusion-based speckle reducing filter is proposed in this paper. A probability density function of the edges along with pixel relativity information is used to control the diffusion flux flow. The probability density function helps in removing the spurious edges and the pixel relativity reduces the oversmoothing effects. Furthermore, the filtering is performed in superpixel domain to reduce the execution time, wherein a minimum of 15% of the total number of image pixels can be used. For performance evaluation, 31 frames of three synthetic images and 40 real ultrasound images are used. In most of the experiments, the proposed filter shows a better performance as compared to the state-of-the-art filters in terms of the speckle region's signal-to-noise ratio and mean square error. It also shows a comparative performance for figure of merit and structural similarity measure index. Furthermore, in the subjective evaluation, performed by the expert radiologists, the proposed filter's outputs are preferred for the improved contrast and sharpness of the object boundaries. Hence, the proposed filtering framework is suitable to reduce the unwanted speckle and improve the quality of the ultrasound images.

Probability intervals for the top event unavailability of fault trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Y.T.; Apostolakis, G.E.

1976-06-01

The evaluation of probabilities of rare events is of major importance in the quantitative assessment of the risk from large technological systems. In particular, for nuclear power plants the complexity of the systems, their high reliability and the lack of significant statistical records have led to the extensive use of logic diagrams in the estimation of low probabilities. The estimation of probability intervals for the probability of existence of the top event of a fault tree is examined. Given the uncertainties of the primary input data, a method is described for the evaluation of the first four moments of the top event occurrence probability. These moments are then used to estimate confidence bounds by several approaches which are based on standard inequalities (e.g., Tchebycheff, Cantelli, etc.) or on empirical distributions (the Johnson family). Several examples indicate that the Johnson family of distributions yields results which are in good agreement with those produced by Monte Carlo simulation

Modulation Based on Probability Density Functions

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Glenn L.

2009-01-01

A proposed method of modulating a sinusoidal carrier signal to convey digital information involves the use of histograms representing probability density functions (PDFs) that characterize samples of the signal waveform. The method is based partly on the observation that when a waveform is sampled (whether by analog or digital means) over a time interval at least as long as one half cycle of the waveform, the samples can be sorted by frequency of occurrence, thereby constructing a histogram representing a PDF of the waveform during that time interval.

Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part I: Effects of Random Error

Science.gov (United States)

Duda, David P.; Minnis, Patrick

2009-01-01

Straightforward application of the Schmidt-Appleman contrail formation criteria to diagnose persistent contrail occurrence from numerical weather prediction data is hindered by significant bias errors in the upper tropospheric humidity. Logistic models of contrail occurrence have been proposed to overcome this problem, but basic questions remain about how random measurement error may affect their accuracy. A set of 5000 synthetic contrail observations is created to study the effects of random error in these probabilistic models. The simulated observations are based on distributions of temperature, humidity, and vertical velocity derived from Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) weather analyses. The logistic models created from the simulated observations were evaluated using two common statistical measures of model accuracy, the percent correct (PC) and the Hanssen-Kuipers discriminant (HKD). To convert the probabilistic results of the logistic models into a dichotomous yes/no choice suitable for the statistical measures, two critical probability thresholds are considered. The HKD scores are higher when the climatological frequency of contrail occurrence is used as the critical threshold, while the PC scores are higher when the critical probability threshold is 0.5. For both thresholds, typical random errors in temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity are found to be small enough to allow for accurate logistic models of contrail occurrence. The accuracy of the models developed from synthetic data is over 85 percent for both the prediction of contrail occurrence and non-occurrence, although in practice, larger errors would be anticipated.

A methodology for the transfer of probabilities between accident severity categories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whitlow, J.D.; Neuhauser, K.S.

1991-01-01

A methodology has been developed which allows the accident probabilities associated with one accident-severity category scheme to be transferred to another severity category scheme. The methodology requires that the schemes use a common set of parameters to define the categories. The transfer of accident probabilities is based on the relationships between probability of occurrence and each of the parameters used to define the categories. Because of the lack of historical data describing accident environments in engineering terms, these relationships may be difficult to obtain directly for some parameters. Numerical models or experienced judgement are often needed to obtain the relationships. These relationships, even if they are not exact, allow the accident probability associated with any severity category to be distributed within that category in a manner consistent with accident experience, which in turn will allow the accident probability to be appropriately transferred to a different category scheme

Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

Science.gov (United States)

Vaz, Teresa; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, Susana; Cruz Oliveira, Sérgio; Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Quaresma, Ivânia

2018-04-01

This work proposes a comprehensive method to assess rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation using a centenary landslide database associated with a single centenary daily rainfall data set. The method is applied to the Lisbon region and includes the rainfall return period analysis that was used to identify the critical rainfall combination (cumulated rainfall duration) related to each landslide event. The spatial representativeness of the reference rain gauge is evaluated and the rainfall thresholds are assessed and calibrated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. Results show that landslide events located up to 10 km from the rain gauge can be used to calculate the rainfall thresholds in the study area; however, these thresholds may be used with acceptable confidence up to 50 km from the rain gauge. The rainfall thresholds obtained using linear and potential regression perform well in ROC metrics. However, the intermediate thresholds based on the probability of landslide events established in the zone between the lower-limit threshold and the upper-limit threshold are much more informative as they indicate the probability of landslide event occurrence given rainfall exceeding the threshold. This information can be easily included in landslide early warning systems, especially when combined with the probability of rainfall above each threshold.

Activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex signals the accumulation of evidence in a probability learning task.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mathieu d'Acremont

Full Text Available In an uncertain environment, probabilities are key to predicting future events and making adaptive choices. However, little is known about how humans learn such probabilities and where and how they are encoded in the brain, especially when they concern more than two outcomes. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, young adults learned the probabilities of uncertain stimuli through repetitive sampling. Stimuli represented payoffs and participants had to predict their occurrence to maximize their earnings. Choices indicated loss and risk aversion but unbiased estimation of probabilities. BOLD response in medial prefrontal cortex and angular gyri increased linearly with the probability of the currently observed stimulus, untainted by its value. Connectivity analyses during rest and task revealed that these regions belonged to the default mode network. The activation of past outcomes in memory is evoked as a possible mechanism to explain the engagement of the default mode network in probability learning. A BOLD response relating to value was detected only at decision time, mainly in striatum. It is concluded that activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex reflects the amount of evidence accumulated in favor of competing and uncertain outcomes.

Occurrence of CPPopt Values in Uncorrelated ICP and ABP Time Series.

Science.gov (United States)

Cabeleira, M; Czosnyka, M; Liu, X; Donnelly, J; Smielewski, P

2018-01-01

Optimal cerebral perfusion pressure (CPPopt) is a concept that uses the pressure reactivity (PRx)-CPP relationship over a given period to find a value of CPP at which PRx shows best autoregulation. It has been proposed that this relationship be modelled by a U-shaped curve, where the minimum is interpreted as being the CPP value that corresponds to the strongest autoregulation. Owing to the nature of the calculation and the signals involved in it, the occurrence of CPPopt curves generated by non-physiological variations of intracranial pressure (ICP) and arterial blood pressure (ABP), termed here "false positives", is possible. Such random occurrences would artificially increase the yield of CPPopt values and decrease the reliability of the methodology.In this work, we studied the probability of the random occurrence of false-positives and we compared the effect of the parameters used for CPPopt calculation on this probability. To simulate the occurrence of false-positives, uncorrelated ICP and ABP time series were generated by destroying the relationship between the waves in real recordings. The CPPopt algorithm was then applied to these new series and the number of false-positives was counted for different values of the algorithm's parameters. The percentage of CPPopt curves generated from uncorrelated data was demonstrated to be 11.5%. This value can be minimised by tuning some of the calculation parameters, such as increasing the calculation window and increasing the minimum PRx span accepted on the curve.

[Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

2015-07-01

The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located.

Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

Science.gov (United States)

Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

2014-05-01

Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

Joint probability safety assessment for NPP defense infrastructure against extreme external natural hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guilin, L.; Defu, L.; Huajun, L.; Fengqing, W.; Tao, Z.

2012-01-01

With the increasing tendency of natural hazards, the typhoon, hurricane and tropical Cyclone induced surge, wave, precipitation, flood and wind as extreme external loads menacing Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) in coastal and inland provinces of China. For all of planned, designed And constructed NPP the National Nuclear Safety Administration of China and IAEA recommended Probable Maximum Hurricane /Typhoon/(PMH/T), Probable Maximum Storm Surge (PMSS), Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), Design Basis Flood (DBF) as safety regulations for NPP defense infrastructures. This paper discusses the joint probability analysis of simultaneous occurrence typhoon induced extreme external hazards and compare with IAEA 2006-2009 recommended safety regulation design criteria for some NPP defense infrastructures along China coast. (authors)

Philosophical theories of probability

CERN Document Server

Gillies, Donald

2000-01-01

The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

Mineralizations of the Lavalleja Group (Uruguay), a Probable Neoproterozoic Volcano-sedimentary Sequence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanchez Bettucci, L.; Oyhantcabal, P.; Loureiro, J.; Basei, M.; Ramos, V.; Preciozzi, F.; Basei, M.

2004-01-01

The Lavalleja Group is located in the southern extreme of the Dom Feliciano Belt, being tentatively correlated with the Porongos and Brusque Groups of Brazil. The basement of the Lavalleja Group is probably represented by granitic gneissic rocks of the Campanero Unit with ages, in the southern portion, ranging from 1.75 to 2.1 Ga (U-Pb in zircon). The Lavalleja Group is characterized by narrow bands of meta sedimentary and meta volcanic rocks and it is separated in three formations, namely (from base to top): Zanja del Tigre, Fuente del Puma and Minas. Outcrops assigned to the Minas Formation have been recently correlated with the Arroyo del Soldado Group. Only the Fuente del Puma formation hosts base metals, Au and Ag occurrences. The Fuente del Puma formation is divided into three informal units: sedimentary, volcanic and hornblenditic gabbros. The sedimentary unit is characterized by an important amount of carbonates. Syn collisional to pos tectonic granitic bodies (Carapé Complex) intrudes the Lavalleja Group and the Campanero Unit. Several mineralizations are located in the Fuente del Puma Formation, those associated to Arrospide, Ramallo-Reus, Chape, Valencia, La Oriental, Apolonia, Redondo Hill, La China and La Paloma mines are the most important. In addition, many occurrences of Cu-Zn-Pb were recognized in the region. The Cu-Zn-Pb mineralization includes massive sulfides with pyrite-chalcopyrite-sphalerite-galena-pyrrothyte, arsenopyrite-hematite into small bodies with lenticular shape. The host rock shows frequently hydrothermal alteration. The geochemistry and the geological features of the mineralizations suggest Besshi Massive Sulphide Zn-Cu-Pb and SEDEX Zn-Pb as most probably genetic models for the deposits related to the Neoproterozoic orogeny. Early mineralizations are syngenetic and were formed on the sea floor, although the main mineralizations are related to remobilization during syn- to late-metamorphic events and thrusting

Demonstration Integrated Knowledge-Based System for Estimating Human Error Probabilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Auflick, Jack L.

1999-04-21

Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is currently comprised of at least 40 different methods that are used to analyze, predict, and evaluate human performance in probabilistic terms. Systematic HRAs allow analysts to examine human-machine relationships, identify error-likely situations, and provide estimates of relative frequencies for human errors on critical tasks, highlighting the most beneficial areas for system improvements. Unfortunately, each of HRA's methods has a different philosophical approach, thereby producing estimates of human error probabilities (HEPs) that area better or worse match to the error likely situation of interest. Poor selection of methodology, or the improper application of techniques can produce invalid HEP estimates, where that erroneous estimation of potential human failure could have potentially severe consequences in terms of the estimated occurrence of injury, death, and/or property damage.

Occurrence of Autoimmune Diseases Related to the Vaccine against Yellow Fever

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Cristina Vanderley Oliveira

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Yellow fever is an infectious disease, endemic in South America and Africa. This is a potentially serious illness, with lethality between 5 and 40% of cases. The most effective preventive vaccine is constituted by the attenuated virus strain 17D, developed in 1937. It is considered safe and effective, conferring protection in more than 90% in 10 years. Adverse effects are known as mild reactions (allergies, transaminases transient elevation, fever, headache and severe (visceral and neurotropic disease related to vaccine. However, little is known about its potential to induce autoimmune responses. This systematic review aims to identify the occurrence of autoinflammatory diseases related to 17D vaccine administration. Six studies were identified describing 13 possible cases. The diseases were Guillain-Barré syndrome, multiple sclerosis, multiple points evanescent syndrome, acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, autoimmune hepatitis, and Kawasaki disease. The data suggest that 17D vaccination may play a role in the mechanism of loss of self-tolerance.

A probability space for quantum models

Science.gov (United States)

Lemmens, L. F.

2017-06-01

A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

Choice probability generating functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

2013-01-01

This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

Statistical Study of Aircraft Icing Probabilities at the 700- and 500- Millibar Levels over Ocean Areas in the Northern Hemisphere

Science.gov (United States)

Perkins, Porter J.; Lewis, William; Mulholland, Donald R.

1957-01-01

A statistical study is made of icing data reported from weather reconnaissance aircraft flown by Air Weather Service (USAF). The weather missions studied were flown at fixed flight levels of 500 millibars (18,000 ft) and 700 millibars (10,000 ft) over wide areas of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic Oceans. This report is presented as part of a program conducted by the NACA to obtain extensive icing statistics relevant to aircraft design and operation. The thousands of in-flight observations recorded over a 2- to 4-year period provide reliable statistics on icing encounters for the specific areas, altitudes, and seasons included in the data. The relative frequencies of icing occurrence are presented, together with the estimated icing probabilities and the relation of these probabilities to the frequencies of flight in clouds and cloud temperatures. The results show that aircraft operators can expect icing probabilities to vary widely throughout the year from near zero in the cold Arctic areas in winter up to 7 percent in areas where greater cloudiness and warmer temperatures prevail. The data also reveal a general tendency of colder cloud temperatures to reduce the probability of icing in equally cloudy conditions.

Choice Probability Generating Functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

The relative impact of sizing errors on steam generator tube failure probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cizelj, L.; Dvorsek, T.

1998-01-01

The Outside Diameter Stress Corrosion Cracking (ODSCC) at tube support plates is currently the major degradation mechanism affecting the steam generator tubes made of Inconel 600. This caused development and licensing of degradation specific maintenance approaches, which addressed two main failure modes of the degraded piping: tube rupture; and excessive leakage through degraded tubes. A methodology aiming at assessing the efficiency of a given set of possible maintenance approaches has already been proposed by the authors. It pointed out better performance of the degradation specific over generic approaches in (1) lower probability of single and multiple steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), (2) lower estimated accidental leak rates and (3) less tubes plugged. A sensitivity analysis was also performed pointing out the relative contributions of uncertain input parameters to the tube rupture probabilities. The dominant contribution was assigned to the uncertainties inherent to the regression models used to correlate the defect size and tube burst pressure. The uncertainties, which can be estimated from the in-service inspections, are further analysed in this paper. The defect growth was found to have significant and to some extent unrealistic impact on the probability of single tube rupture. Since the defect growth estimates were based on the past inspection records they strongly depend on the sizing errors. Therefore, an attempt was made to filter out the sizing errors and to arrive at more realistic estimates of the defect growth. The impact of different assumptions regarding sizing errors on the tube rupture probability was studied using a realistic numerical example. The data used is obtained from a series of inspection results from Krsko NPP with 2 Westinghouse D-4 steam generators. The results obtained are considered useful in safety assessment and maintenance of affected steam generators. (author)

Propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to incorporate severity probabilities in the highway safety manual crash prediction algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Sasidharan, Lekshmi; Donnell, Eric T

2014-10-01

Accurate estimation of the expected number of crashes at different severity levels for entities with and without countermeasures plays a vital role in selecting countermeasures in the framework of the safety management process. The current practice is to use the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials' Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms, which combine safety performance functions and crash modification factors, to estimate the effects of safety countermeasures on different highway and street facility types. Many of these crash prediction algorithms are based solely on crash frequency, or assume that severity outcomes are unchanged when planning for, or implementing, safety countermeasures. Failing to account for the uncertainty associated with crash severity outcomes, and assuming crash severity distributions remain unchanged in safety performance evaluations, limits the utility of the Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms in assessing the effect of safety countermeasures on crash severity. This study demonstrates the application of a propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to estimate the probability distribution for the occurrence of different crash severity levels by accounting for the uncertainties associated with them. The probability of fatal and severe injury crash occurrence at lighted and unlighted intersections is estimated in this paper using data from Minnesota. The results show that the expected probability of occurrence of fatal and severe injury crashes at a lighted intersection was 1 in 35 crashes and the estimated risk ratio indicates that the respective probabilities at an unlighted intersection was 1.14 times higher compared to lighted intersections. The results from the potential outcomes-propensity scores framework are compared to results obtained from traditional binary logit models, without application of propensity scores matching. Traditional binary logit analysis suggests that

Real Time Robot Soccer Game Event Detection Using Finite State Machines with Multiple Fuzzy Logic Probability Evaluators

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elmer P. Dadios

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a new algorithm for real time event detection using Finite State Machines with multiple Fuzzy Logic Probability Evaluators (FLPEs. A machine referee for a robot soccer game is developed and is used as the platform to test the proposed algorithm. A novel technique to detect collisions and other events in microrobot soccer game under inaccurate and insufficient information is presented. The robots' collision is used to determine goalkeeper charging and goal score events which are crucial for the machine referee's decisions. The Main State Machine (MSM handles the schedule of event activation. The FLPE calculates the probabilities of the true occurrence of the events. Final decisions about the occurrences of events are evaluated and compared through threshold crisp probability values. The outputs of FLPEs can be combined to calculate the probability of an event composed of subevents. Using multiple fuzzy logic system, the FLPE utilizes minimal number of rules and can be tuned individually. Experimental results show the accuracy and robustness of the proposed algorithm.

Relative importance of habitat area and isolation for bird occurrence patterns in a naturally patchy landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, T.L.; Johnson, E.J.; Bissonette, J.A.

2009-01-01

There is debate among ecologists about whether total habitat area or patch arrangement contributes most to population and/or community responses to fragmented or patchy landscapes. We tested the relative effects of patch area and isolation for predicting bird occurrence in a naturally patchy landscape in the Bear River Mountains of Northern Utah, USA. We selected focal patches (mountain meadows) ranging in elevation from 1,920 to 2,860 m and in size from 0.6 to 182 ha. Breeding birds were sampled in each focal meadow during the summers of 2003 and 2004 using variable-distance point transects. Logistic regression and likelihood-based model selection were used to determine the relationship between likelihood of occurrence of three bird species (Brewer's sparrow, vesper sparrow, and white-crowned sparrow) and area, isolation, and proximity metrics. We used model weights and model-averaged confidence intervals to assess the importance of each predictor variable. Plots of area versus isolation were used to evaluate complex relationships between the variables. We found that meadow area was the most important variable for explaining occurrence for two species, and that isolation was the most important for the other. We also found that the absolute distance was more appropriate for evaluating isolation responses than was the species-specific proximity metric. Our findings add clarity to the debate between ecologists regarding the relative importance of area and isolation in species responses to patchy landscapes.

Frequent occurrence of nonprimate hepacivirus infections in Thoroughbred breeding horses - A cross-sectional study for the occurrence of infections and potential risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Reichert, Claudia; Campe, Amely; Walter, Stephanie; Pfaender, Stephanie; Welsch, Kathrin; Ruddat, Inga; Sieme, Harald; Feige, Karsten; Steinmann, Eike; Cavalleri, Jessika M V

2017-05-01

Recently, several new hepaciviruses have been identified of which the nonprimate hepacivirus (NPHV) - the closest relative to hepatitis C virus (HCV) discovered to date - is highly prevalent in horses. However, potential risk factors for the transmission of NPHV among horses remain still unknown. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate the occurrence of NPHV infections in Thoroughbreds in northern and western Germany and to identify potential risk factors associated with NPHV infections. Using a cross-sectional study design, a total of 733 serum samples from Thoroughbred broodmares and stallions from northern and western Germany were analyzed for the presence of anti-NPHV nonstructural protein 3 (NS3) antibodies and NPHV RNA using the luciferase immunoprecipitation system (LIPS) and a quantitative real-time PCR, respectively. Information regarding signalment, stud farm, breeding history and international transportation history of each horse were collected and evaluated. A frequent occurrence of NPHV was found in the study population with 453 seropositive horses (61.8%) and 134 horses (18.3%) carrying NPHV RNA. Furthermore, statistical analysis revealed that the probability of being infected decreased for horses with a transportation history with increasing age by 20% each year. For horses that stayed in Germany no association between age and infection could be observed. In conclusion, the high occurrence of NPHV infections in breeding Thoroughbreds suggests circulating NPHV infections, endemic herds or persistent shedding in these animals and revealed the association of age and international transportation as risk factor for NPHV infections. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimated probability of postwildfire debris flows in the 2012 Whitewater-Baldy Fire burn area, southwestern New Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Tillery, Anne C.; Matherne, Anne Marie; Verdin, Kristine L.

2012-01-01

In May and June 2012, the Whitewater-Baldy Fire burned approximately 1,200 square kilometers (300,000 acres) of the Gila National Forest, in southwestern New Mexico. The burned landscape is now at risk of damage from postwildfire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows and flash floods. This report presents a preliminary hazard assessment of the debris-flow potential from 128 basins burned by the Whitewater-Baldy Fire. A pair of empirical hazard-assessment models developed by using data from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain Western United States was used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows along the burned area drainage network and for selected drainage basins within the burned area. The models incorporate measures of areal burned extent and severity, topography, soils, and storm rainfall intensity to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows following the fire. In response to the 2-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, modeling indicated that four basins have high probabilities of debris-flow occurrence (greater than or equal to 80 percent). For the 10-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, an additional 14 basins are included, and for the 25-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, an additional eight basins, 20 percent of the total, have high probabilities of debris-flow occurrence. In addition, probability analysis along the stream segments can identify specific reaches of greatest concern for debris flows within a basin. Basins with a high probability of debris-flow occurrence were concentrated in the west and central parts of the burned area, including tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Mineral Creek, and Willow Creek. Estimated debris-flow volumes ranged from about 3,000-4,000 cubic meters (m3) to greater than 500,000 m3 for all design storms modeled. Drainage basins with estimated volumes greater than 500,000 m3 included tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Willow

Statistical physics approach to earthquake occurrence and forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arcangelis, Lucilla de [Department of Industrial and Information Engineering, Second University of Naples, Aversa (CE) (Italy); Godano, Cataldo [Department of Mathematics and Physics, Second University of Naples, Caserta (Italy); Grasso, Jean Robert [ISTerre, IRD-CNRS-OSUG, University of Grenoble, Saint Martin d’Héres (France); Lippiello, Eugenio, E-mail: eugenio.lippiello@unina2.it [Department of Mathematics and Physics, Second University of Naples, Caserta (Italy)

2016-04-25

There is striking evidence that the dynamics of the Earth crust is controlled by a wide variety of mutually dependent mechanisms acting at different spatial and temporal scales. The interplay of these mechanisms produces instabilities in the stress field, leading to abrupt energy releases, i.e., earthquakes. As a consequence, the evolution towards instability before a single event is very difficult to monitor. On the other hand, collective behavior in stress transfer and relaxation within the Earth crust leads to emergent properties described by stable phenomenological laws for a population of many earthquakes in size, time and space domains. This observation has stimulated a statistical mechanics approach to earthquake occurrence, applying ideas and methods as scaling laws, universality, fractal dimension, renormalization group, to characterize the physics of earthquakes. In this review we first present a description of the phenomenological laws of earthquake occurrence which represent the frame of reference for a variety of statistical mechanical models, ranging from the spring-block to more complex fault models. Next, we discuss the problem of seismic forecasting in the general framework of stochastic processes, where seismic occurrence can be described as a branching process implementing space–time-energy correlations between earthquakes. In this context we show how correlations originate from dynamical scaling relations between time and energy, able to account for universality and provide a unifying description for the phenomenological power laws. Then we discuss how branching models can be implemented to forecast the temporal evolution of the earthquake occurrence probability and allow to discriminate among different physical mechanisms responsible for earthquake triggering. In particular, the forecasting problem will be presented in a rigorous mathematical framework, discussing the relevance of the processes acting at different temporal scales for

The Occurrence of Flavonoids and Related Compounds in Flower Sections of Papaver nudicaule

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bettina Dudek

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Flavonoids play an important role in the pigmentation of flowers; in addition, they protect petals and other flower parts from UV irradiation and oxidative stress. Nudicaulins, flavonoid-derived indole alkaloids, along with pelargonidin, kaempferol, and gossypetin glycosides, are responsible for the color of white, red, orange, and yellow petals of different Papaver nudicaule cultivars. The color of the petals is essential to attract pollinators. We investigated the occurrence of flavonoids in basal and apical petal areas, stamens, and capsules of four differently colored P. nudicaule cultivars by means of chromatographic and spectroscopic methods. The results reveal the specific occurrence of gossypetin glycosides in the basal spot of all cultivars and demonstrate that kaempferol glycosides are the major secondary metabolites in the capsules. Unlike previous reports, the yellow-colored stamens of all four P. nudicaule cultivars are shown to contain not nudicaulins but carotenoids. In addition, the presence of nudicaulins, pelargonidin, and kaempferol glycosides in the apical petal area was confirmed. The flavonoids and related compounds in the investigated flower parts and cultivars of P. nudicaule are profiled, and their potential ecological role is discussed.

Occurrence of spinal column pain and its relation to the quality of life of manicures and pedicures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrezza Pinheiro Bezerra de Menezes Kinote

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Objective: To analyze the occurrence of spine column pain in manicures/pedicures and verify its relationship with quality of life. Methods: A quantitative and descriptive crosssectional research conducted from February to June 2010 with 30 professionals aged between 18 and 45 years and with at least one year of work experience. After selection, two questionnaires were applied: the SF-36 and another developed by the researchers with questions related to occupation (working hours and length of service, occurrence of pain and its characteristics (location, type, frequency and intensity. Results: Of the 30 participants, 76.7% (n=23 reported pain, with 63.3% (n=19 occurrence in the lumbar spine and 46.7% (n=14 occurrence of chronic type (lasting more than 6 months. A total of 36.7% (n=11 of interviewees reported daily pain with an average intensity of 6.1+2.24. Age and length of service rates were higher in the group of people who felt pain (34.2+6.80 and 12.3+6.39 years respectively. Regarding the quality of life in the group of people who did not feel pain, the domains “functional capacity”, “pain” and “general health status” had higher scores when compared to the group of people who felt pain (p<0.05. Conclusion: It was detected a high occurrence of spinal column pain among manicures / pedicures, especially in the lumbar spine, leading to functional limitations, and a consequent change in quality of life. doi:10.5020/18061230.2013.p318

Are ranger patrols effective in reducing poaching-related threats within protected areas?

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Jennnifer F.; Mulindahabi, Felix; Masozera, Michel K.; Nichols, James; Hines, James; Turikunkiko, Ezechiel; Oli, Madan K.

2018-01-01

Poaching is one of the greatest threats to wildlife conservation world-wide. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of poaching activities within protected areas, and the effectiveness of ranger patrols and ranger posts in mitigating these threats, are relatively unknown.We used 10 years (2006–2015) of ranger-based monitoring data and dynamic multi-season occupancy models to quantify poaching-related threats, to examine factors influencing the spatio-temporal dynamics of these threats and to test the efficiency of management actions to combat poaching in Nyungwe National Park (NNP), Rwanda.The probability of occurrence of poaching-related threats was highest at lower elevations (1,801–2,200 m), especially in areas that were close to roads and tourist trails; conversely, occurrence probability was lowest at high elevation sites (2,601–3,000 m), and near the park boundary and ranger posts. The number of ranger patrols substantially increased the probability that poaching-related threats disappear at a site if threats were originally present (i.e. probability of extinction of threats). Without ranger visits, the annual probability of extinction of poaching-related threats was an estimated 7%; this probability would increase to 20% and 57% with 20 and 50 ranger visits per year, respectively.Our results suggest that poaching-related threats can be effectively reduced in NNP by adding ranger posts in areas where they do not currently exist, and by increasing the number of patrols to sites where the probability of poaching activities is high.Synthesis and applications. Our application of dynamic occupancy models to predict the probability of presence of poaching-related threats is novel, and explicitly considers imperfect detection of illegal activities. Based on the modelled relationships, we identify areas that are most vulnerable to poaching, and offer insights regarding how ranger patrols can be optimally deployed to reduce poaching-related threats and

Estimating the risk of cyanobacterial occurrence using an index integrating meteorological factors: application to drinking water production.

Science.gov (United States)

Ndong, Mouhamed; Bird, David; Nguyen-Quang, Tri; de Boutray, Marie-Laure; Zamyadi, Arash; Vinçon-Leite, Brigitte; Lemaire, Bruno J; Prévost, Michèle; Dorner, Sarah

2014-06-01

The sudden appearance of toxic cyanobacteria (CB) blooms is still largely unpredictable in waters worldwide. Many post-hoc explanations for CB bloom occurrence relating to physical and biochemical conditions in lakes have been developed. As potentially toxic CB can accumulate in drinking water treatment plants and disrupt water treatment, there is a need for water treatment operators to determine whether conditions are favourable for the proliferation and accumulation of CB in source waters in order to adjust drinking water treatment accordingly. Thus, a new methodology with locally adaptable variables is proposed in order to have a single index, f(p), related to various environmental factors such as temperature, wind speed and direction. The index is used in conjunction with real time monitoring data to determine the probability of CB occurrence in relation to meteorological factors, and was tested at a drinking water intake in Missisquoi Bay, a shallow transboundary bay in Lake Champlain, Québec, Canada. These environmental factors alone were able to explain a maximum probability of 68% that a CB bloom would occur at the drinking water treatment plant. Nutrient limitation also influences CB blooms and intense blooms only occurred when the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to total phosphorus (TP) mass ratio was below 3. Additional monitoring of DIN and TP could be considered for these source waters prone to cyanobacterial blooms to determine periods of favourable growth. Real time monitoring and the use of the index could permit an adequate and timely response to CB blooms in drinking water sources. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Equipment-related incidents in the operating room: an analysis of occurrence, underlying causes and consequences for the clinical process

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wubben, I.; van Manen, Jeanette Gabrielle; van den Akker, B.J.; Vaartjes, S.R.; van Harten, Willem H.

2010-01-01

Background: Equipment-related incidents in the operating room (OR) can affect quality of care. In this study, the authors determined the occurrence and effects on the care process in a large teaching hospital. - Methods: During a 4-week period, OR nurses reported equipment-related incidents during

Developing a Mathematical Model for Scheduling and Determining Success Probability of Research Projects Considering Complex-Fuzzy Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gholamreza Norouzi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In project management context, time management is one of the most important factors affecting project success. This paper proposes a new method to solve research project scheduling problems (RPSP containing Fuzzy Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (FGERT networks. Through the deliverables of this method, a proper estimation of project completion time (PCT and success probability can be achieved. So algorithms were developed to cover all features of the problem based on three main parameters “duration, occurrence probability, and success probability.” These developed algorithms were known as PR-FGERT (Parallel and Reversible-Fuzzy GERT networks. The main provided framework includes simplifying the network of project and taking regular steps to determine PCT and success probability. Simplifications include (1 equivalent making of parallel and series branches in fuzzy network considering the concepts of probabilistic nodes, (2 equivalent making of delay or reversible-to-itself branches and impact of changing the parameters of time and probability based on removing related branches, (3 equivalent making of simple and complex loops, and (4 an algorithm that was provided to resolve no-loop fuzzy network, after equivalent making. Finally, the performance of models was compared with existing methods. The results showed proper and real performance of models in comparison with existing methods.

A methodology for the transfer of probabilities between accident severity categories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whitlow, J.D.; Neuhauser, K.S.

1993-01-01

This paper will describe a methodology which has been developed to allow accident probabilities associated with one severity category scheme to be transferred to another severity category scheme, permitting some comparisons of different studies at the category level. In this methodology, the severity category schemes to be compared are mapped onto a common set of axes. The axes represent critical accident environments (e.g., impact, thermal, crush, puncture) and indicate the range of accident parameters from zero (no accident) to the most sever credible forces. The choice of critical accident environments for the axes depends on the package being transported and the mode of transportation. The accident probabilities associated with one scheme are then transferred to the other scheme. This transfer of category probabilities is based on the relationships of the critical accident parameters to probability of occurrence. The methodology can be employed to transfer any quantity between category schemes if the appropriate supporting information is available. (J.P.N.)

Occurrence reporting and processing of operations information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

DOE O 232.1A, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information, and 10 CFR 830.350, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information (when it becomes effective), along with this manual, set forth occurrence reporting requirements for Department of Energy (DOE) Departmental Elements and contractors responsible for the management and operation of DOE-owned and -leased facilities. These requirements include categorization of occurrences related to safety, security, environment, health, or operations (''Reportable Occurrences''); DOE notification of these occurrences; and the development and submission of documented follow-up reports. This Manual provides detailed information for categorizing and reporting occurrences at DOE facilities. Information gathered by the Occurrence Reporting and processing System is used for analysis of the Department's performance in environmental protection, safeguards and security, and safety and health of its workers and the public. This information is also used to develop lessons learned and document events that significantly impact DOE operations

Occurrence reporting and processing of operations information

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-07-21

DOE O 232.1A, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information, and 10 CFR 830.350, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information (when it becomes effective), along with this manual, set forth occurrence reporting requirements for Department of Energy (DOE) Departmental Elements and contractors responsible for the management and operation of DOE-owned and -leased facilities. These requirements include categorization of occurrences related to safety, security, environment, health, or operations (``Reportable Occurrences``); DOE notification of these occurrences; and the development and submission of documented follow-up reports. This Manual provides detailed information for categorizing and reporting occurrences at DOE facilities. Information gathered by the Occurrence Reporting and processing System is used for analysis of the Department`s performance in environmental protection, safeguards and security, and safety and health of its workers and the public. This information is also used to develop lessons learned and document events that significantly impact DOE operations.

On the Possibility of Assigning Probabilities to Singular Cases, or: Probability Is Subjective Too!

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark R. Crovelli

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Both Ludwig von Mises and Richard von Mises claimed that numerical probability could not be legitimately applied to singular cases. This paper challenges this aspect of the von Mises brothers’ theory of probability. It is argued that their denial that numerical probability could be applied to singular cases was based solely upon Richard von Mises’ exceptionally restrictive definition of probability. This paper challenges Richard von Mises’ definition of probability by arguing that the definition of probability necessarily depends upon whether the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is argued that if the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws, a subjective definition of probability must be adopted. It is further argued that both the nature of human action and the relative frequency method for calculating numerical probabilities both presuppose that the world is indeed governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is finally argued that the subjective definition of probability undercuts the von Mises claim that numerical probability cannot legitimately be applied to singular, non-replicable cases.

Scale-invariant transition probabilities in free word association trajectories

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Elias Costa

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Free-word association has been used as a vehicle to understand the organization of human thoughts. The original studies relied mainly on qualitative assertions, yielding the widely intuitive notion that trajectories of word associations are structured, yet considerably more random than organized linguistic text. Here we set to determine a precise characterization of this space, generating a large number of word association trajectories in a web implemented game. We embedded the trajectories in the graph of word co-occurrences from a linguistic corpus. To constrain possible transport models we measured the memory loss and the cycling probability. These two measures could not be reconciled by a bounded diffusive model since the cycling probability was very high (16 % of order-2 cycles implying a majority of short-range associations whereas the memory loss was very rapid (converging to the asymptotic value in ∼ 7 steps which, in turn, forced a high fraction of long-range associations. We show that memory loss and cycling probabilities of free word association trajectories can be simultaneously accounted by a model in which transitions are determined by a scale invariant probability distribution.

Probability theory versus simulation of petroleum potential in play analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Crovelli, R.A.

1987-01-01

An analytic probabilistic methodology for resource appraisal of undiscovered oil and gas resources in play analysis is presented. This play-analysis methodology is a geostochastic system for petroleum resource appraisal in explored as well as frontier areas. An objective was to replace an existing Monte Carlo simulation method in order to increase the efficiency of the appraisal process. Underlying the two methods is a single geologic model which considers both the uncertainty of the presence of the assessed hydrocarbon and its amount if present. The results of the model are resource estimates of crude oil, nonassociated gas, dissolved gas, and gas for a geologic play in terms of probability distributions. The analytic method is based upon conditional probability theory and a closed form solution of all means and standard deviations, along with the probabilities of occurrence. ?? 1987 J.C. Baltzer A.G., Scientific Publishing Company.

Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barbero, R; Abatzoglou, J T; Steel, E A; K Larkin, Narasimhan

2014-01-01

Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ∼60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric predictors. Climate−fire relationships on interannual timescales were evident, with wetter conditions than normal in the previous growing season enhancing VLFs probability in rangeland systems and with concurrent long-term drought enhancing VLFs probability in forested systems. Information at sub-seasonal timescales further refined these relationships, with short-term fire weather being a significant predictor in rangelands and fire danger indices linked to dead fuel moisture being a significant predictor in forested lands. Models demonstrated agreement in capturing the observed spatial and temporal variability including the interannual variability of VLF occurrences within most ecoregions. Furthermore the model captured the observed increase in VLF occurrences across parts of the southwestern and southeastern US from 1984 to 2010 suggesting that, irrespective of changes in fuels and land management, climatic factors have become more favorable for VLF occurrence over the past three decades in some regions. Our modeling framework provides a basis for simulations of future VLF occurrences from climate projections. (letter)

The relation between Puelche wind and the occurrence of forest fires in Bio Bio region, Chile

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inzunza, Juan Carlos

2009-01-01

This paper presents a study of the relation between Puelche wind and forest fires in the Bio Bio Region, Chile. To establish a relationship between Puelche wind and forest fire generation, different data analysis methods and statistics test were applied. The relation between the total number of fires in the season and the days with Puelche wind were not statistically significant. When analyzing daily averages of fires produced with and without Puelche wind for each season, the highest daily fire occurrence values were found when there is Puelche wind, indicating that this event produces a strong effect on the daily occurrence of fires since these increased by 90% in comparison to the days without Puelche wind. The results of the difference between the number of fires with and without Puelche wind with respect to the average number of total fires indicate that the days with Puelche wind surpass both the total and the average values for days without Puelche wind, confirming the strong effect that a Puelche wind day has on forest fires. The greatest number of fires produced with Puelche wind occurs in the Province of Concepcion. This Province is the most affected by Puelche wind conditions despite having the smallest surface area for the region studied. Still, it is the most populous province of the region and has the greatest surface area with forests and plantations with respect to its size. Consequently, Puelche wind is a factor that increases the occurrence of forest fires and favors their propagation.

The probability of containment failure by steam explosion in a PWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Briggs, A.J.

1983-12-01

The study of the risk associated with operation of a PWR includes assessment of severe accidents in which a combination of faults results in melting of the core. Probabilistic methods are used in such assessment, hence it is necessary to estimate the probability of key events. One such event is the occurrence of a large steam explosion when molten core debris slumps into the base of the reactor vessel. This report considers recent information, and recommends an upper limit to the range of probability values for containment failure by steam explosion for risk assessment for a plant such as the proposed Sizewell B station. (U.K.)

A method for the estimation of the probability of damage due to earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alderson, M.A.H.G.

1979-07-01

The available information on seismicity within the United Kingdom has been combined with building damage data from the United States to produce a method of estimating the probability of damage to structures due to the occurrence of earthquakes. The analysis has been based on the use of site intensity as the major damage producing parameter. Data for structural, pipework and equipment items have been assumed and the overall probability of damage calculated as a function of the design level. Due account is taken of the uncertainties of the seismic data. (author)

Improving SysSim's Planetary Occurrence Rate Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Ashby, Keir; Ragozzine, Darin; Hsu, Danley; Ford, Eric B.

2017-10-01

Kepler's catalog of thousands of transiting planet candidates enables statistical characterization of the underlying planet occurrence rates as a function of period and radius. Due to geometric factors and general noise in measurements, we know that many planets--especially those with a small-radius and/or long-period--were not observed by Kepler.To account for Kepler's detection criteria, Hsu et al. 2017 expanded on work in Lissuaer et al. 2011 to develop the Planetary System Simulator or "SysSim". SysSim uses a forward model to generate simulated catalogs of exoplanet systems, determine which of those simulated planets would have been seen by Kepler in the presence of uncertainties, and then compares those “observed planets” to those actually seen by Kepler. It then uses Approximate Bayesian Computation to infer the posterior probability distributions of the input parameters used to generate the forward model. In Hsu et al. 2017, we focused on matching the observed frequency of planets by solving for the underlying occurrence rate for each bin in a 2-dimensional grid of radius and period. After summarizing the results of Hsu et al. 2017, we show new results that investigate the effect on occurrence rates from including more accurate completeness products (from the Kepler DR25 analysis) into SysSim.

Identification and Assessment of Recent Aging-Related Degradation Occurrences in U.S. Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, In Kil; Kim, Min Kyu; Choun, Young Sun; Hofmayer, Charles; Braverman, Joseph; Nie, Jinsou

2008-11-01

This report describes the research effort performed by BNL for the Year 1 scope of work. This research focused on collecting and reviewing degradation occurrences in US NPPs and identifying important aging characteristics needed for the seismic capability evaluations that will be performed in the subsequent evaluations in the years that follow. The report presents results of the statistical and trending analysis of this data and compares the results to prior aging studies. In addition, this report provides a description of current regulatory requirements, regulatory guidance documents, generic communications, industry standards and guidance, and past research related to aging degradation of SSCs. Finally, this report provides the conclusions reached from this research effort, which includes a summary of the findings from the identification and evaluation effort of degradation occurrences, an assessment of the degradation trending results, and insights into the important aging characteristics that should be considered in the tasks to be performed in the Year 2 through 5 research effort

Linear positivity and virtual probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartle, James B.

2004-01-01

We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics

Clinical and statistical evaluation of the occurrence of acute myocardial infarction in the cold inland area of Hokkaido.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirasawa, K; Shibata, J; Yamamura, K

1989-07-01

We made a clinical and statistical evaluation of the occurrence of acute myocardial infarction with respect to the relation between its occurrence and the meterology of the cold inland area of Hokkaido (the Kamikawa Basin) over a period of 10 years (1976-1985). A total of 581 cases were studied. Monthly fluctuation of incidence was not found to be statistically significant. A cold period in the Kamikawa Basin was defined in this study as the period when ordinary mean atmospheric temperatures were below 0 degree C (from 7 Nov. to 16 Apr.). Canonical discriminant analysis was applied to 10 meterological factors between the days with occurrences and those without occurrences (245 days vs 245 days) in the cold periods of the investigated 10 years, and between the days with outdoor occurrences and those without occurrences (37 days vs 37 days). In order to compare the regional difference, this analysis was done on the same 10 factors for the cold periods over 3 years in Yamagata (46 days vs 46 days). The F values of 0.0003, 0.0155 and 0.0098 respectively in the above 3 analyses were small (much less than F 1(9) (0.25) = 1.51). A circadian rhythm of 2 cycles/day was recognized concerning the time of occurrence by power spectral analysis of the data of 562 patients for whom the time of the onset of myocardial infarction was known. Subdividing the patients into 2 groups according to physical activity just before the occurrence, the group who experienced an occurrence at rest showed a rhythm of 1 cycle/day, and the group who experienced an occurrence on effort showed a rhythm of 2 cycles/day. Therefore, the 10 meterological factors could not discriminate the probabilities between the days with occurrences and the days without occurrences of myocardial infarction in the cold periods. On the other hand, it was suggested that biological intrinsic rhythm participates in triggering the occurrence of myocardial infarction.

Is the occurrence of spontaneous epistaxis related to climatic variables? A retrospective clinical, epidemiological and meteorological study.

Science.gov (United States)

Mangussi-Gomes, João; Enout, Mariana Junqueira Reis; Castro, Thaiana Carneiro de; de Andrade, José Santos Cruz; Penido, Norma de Oliveira; Kosugi, Eduardo Macoto

2016-11-01

Epistaxis has a bimodal age distribution. Anterior epistaxis of mild severity is more common in children; severe epistaxis occurs more often in adults and elderly patients. The occurrence of spontaneous epistaxis was shown to be weakly-to-moderately and inversely correlated to the mean monthly temperature, relative humidity and total rainfall. To describe the clinical and epidemiological profiles of patients diagnosed with spontaneous epistaxis; to correlate its monthly occurrence with meteorological variables. A retrospective cross-sectional study was performed in a referral ENT service in São Paulo, Brazil. The study assessed the clinical and epidemiological features of 508 patients with spontaneous epistaxis treated between February 2010 and January 2011. The occurrence of epistaxis was associated with weather variables for the same study period. Spontaneous epistaxis presented two age peaks of higher incidence (11-20 and 51-70 years). Children more frequently had localized bleeding (p = 0.003), in the anterior region of the nasal cavity (p = 0.0001), of absent-mild severity (p = 0.0082). Diffuse bleeding (p = 0.005), of moderate-severe intensity (p = 0.003), was more common in adults and elderly patients. The total number of visits because of epistaxis was inversely correlated to mean temperature (R = -0.489; p = 0.011), mean relative humidity (R = -0.364; p = 0.038), and total rainfall (R = -0.512; p = 0.009) during each month of the analyzed period.

Relations between the occurrence of resistance to antimicrobial growth promoters among Enterococcus faecium isolated from broilers and broiler meat

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Emborg, Hanne-Dorthe; Andersen, J. S.; Seyfarth, Anne Mette

2003-01-01

and streptogramin. By February 1998, all antimicrobial growth promoters (AGPs) were withdrawn from the Danish broiler production. The present study investigates, by logistic regression analyses, the (1) changes in the occurrence of AGP resistance among E. faecium from broilers and broiler meat from the fourth...... quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 2001 and (2) relations between the occurrence of AGP resistance among E. faecium isolates from Danish broilers and AGP resistance among E. faecium isolates from the broiler meat of Danish and unknown origin collected in the same quarter within the year....... In the present study, we showed that after the AGP withdrawal, a significant decline in resistance to avilamycin, erythromycin, vancomycin and virginiamycin was observed among E. faecium from broilers and broiler meat. In addition, a decline in the occurrence of AGP resistance among E. faecium from Danish...

Association Between the Probability of Autism Spectrum Disorder and Normative Sex-Related Phenotypic Diversity in Brain Structure

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, Derek S.; Gudbrandsen, Christina M.; Marquand, Andre F.; Ginestet, Cedric E.; Daly, Eileen M.; Murphy, Clodagh M.; Lai, Meng-Chuan; Lombardo, Michael V.; Ruigrok, Amber N. V.; Bullmore, Edward T.; Suckling, John; Williams, Steven C. R.; Baron-Cohen, Simon; Craig, Michael C.; Murphy, Declan G. M.

2017-01-01

Importance Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is 2 to 5 times more common in male individuals than in female individuals. While the male preponderant prevalence of ASD might partially be explained by sex differences in clinical symptoms, etiological models suggest that the biological male phenotype carries a higher intrinsic risk for ASD than the female phenotype. To our knowledge, this hypothesis has never been tested directly, and the neurobiological mechanisms that modulate ASD risk in male individuals and female individuals remain elusive. Objectives To examine the probability of ASD as a function of normative sex-related phenotypic diversity in brain structure and to identify the patterns of sex-related neuroanatomical variability associated with low or high probability of ASD. Design, Setting, and Participants This study examined a cross-sectional sample of 98 right-handed, high-functioning adults with ASD and 98 matched neurotypical control individuals aged 18 to 42 years. A multivariate probabilistic classification approach was used to develop a predictive model of biological sex based on cortical thickness measures assessed via magnetic resonance imaging in neurotypical controls. This normative model was subsequently applied to individuals with ASD. The study dates were June 2005 to October 2009, and this analysis was conducted between June 2015 and July 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures Sample and population ASD probability estimates as a function of normative sex-related diversity in brain structure, as well as neuroanatomical patterns associated with low or high ASD probability in male individuals and female individuals. Results Among the 98 individuals with ASD, 49 were male and 49 female, with a mean (SD) age of 26.88 (7.18) years. Among the 98 controls, 51 were male and 47 female, with a mean (SD) age of 27.39 (6.44) years. The sample probability of ASD increased significantly with predictive probabilities for the male neuroanatomical brain phenotype. For

UMTRA project list of reportable occurrences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-04-01

This UMTRA Project List of Reportable occurrences is provided to facilitate efficient categorization of reportable occurrences. These guidelines have been established in compliance with DOE minimum reporting requirements under DOE Order 5000.3B. Occurrences are arranged into nine groups relating to US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project operations for active sites. These nine groupings are provided for reference to determined whether an occurrence meets reporting requirement criteria in accordance with the minimum reporting requirements. Event groups and significance categories that cannot or will not occur, and that do not apply to UMTRA Project operations, are omitted. Occurrence categorization shall be as follows: Group 1. Facility Condition; Group 2. Environmental; Group 3. Personnel Safety; Group 4. Personnel Radiation Protection; Group 5. Safeguards and Security; Group 6. Transportation; Group 7. Value Basis Reporting; Group 8. Facility Status; and Group 9. Cross-Category Items.

UMTRA project list of reportable occurrences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-04-01

This UMTRA Project List of Reportable occurrences is provided to facilitate efficient categorization of reportable occurrences. These guidelines have been established in compliance with DOE minimum reporting requirements under DOE Order 5000.3B. Occurrences are arranged into nine groups relating to US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project operations for active sites. These nine groupings are provided for reference to determined whether an occurrence meets reporting requirement criteria in accordance with the minimum reporting requirements. Event groups and significance categories that cannot or will not occur, and that do not apply to UMTRA Project operations, are omitted. Occurrence categorization shall be as follows: Group 1. Facility Condition; Group 2. Environmental; Group 3. Personnel Safety; Group 4. Personnel Radiation Protection; Group 5. Safeguards and Security; Group 6. Transportation; Group 7. Value Basis Reporting; Group 8. Facility Status; and Group 9. Cross-Category Items

Relative K-electron capture probabilities in the decay of 99Rh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, N.R.; Chandrasekhar Rao, M.V.S.; Satyanarayana, G.; Sastry, D.L.; Chintalapudi, S.N.

2000-01-01

The relative K-electron capture probabilities (P K ) to the 1383.23, 896.98, 618.09, 442.78 and 322.43 keV levels in 99 Ru in the decay of 99 Rh are measured employing the X-γ internal sum-coincidence technique. The measured values P K 1383.23=0.851±0.066, P K 896.98=0.834±0.061, P K 618.09=0.870±0.01, P K 442.78=0.882±0.035 and P K 322.43=0.852±0.061 are found to be in good agreement with the theoretical values. The dependence of P K on EC transition energy is discussed. (author)

On some molybdenum occurrences associated with emerald deposits in the Gravelotte area, Eastern Transvaal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martini, J.E.J.

1980-04-01

Sporadic molybdenite is found associated with emerald mineralization at the contact of intrusive granite and Archaean basic rocks. The most important occurrence is at Cobra quarry. However, a general investigation and several analyses show that it has probably no economic significance

Early Pleistocene occurrence of Acheulian technology in North China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xingwen; Ao, Hong; Dekkers, Mark J.; Roberts, Andrew P.; Zhang, Peng; Lin, Shan; Huang, Weiwen; Hou, Yamei; Zhang, Weihua; An, Zhisheng

2017-01-01

Acheulian tools with their associated level of cognizance heralded a major threshold in the evolution of hominin technology, culture and behavior. Thus, unraveling occurrence ages of Acheulian technology across different regions worldwide constitutes a key aspect of understanding the archeology of early human evolution. Here we present a magneto-cyclochronology for the Acheulian assemblage from Sanmenxia Basin, Loess Plateau, North China. Our results place a sequence of stable normal and reversed paleomagnetic polarities within a regional lithostratigraphic context. The Acheulian assemblage is dated to be older than the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary at 0.78 Ma, and is found in strata that are probably equivalent to a weak paleosol subunit within loess layer L9 in the Chinese loess-paleosol sequence, which corresponds to marine isotope stage (MIS) 23, a relatively subdued interglacial period with age range of ∼0.89-0.92 Ma. This age of ∼0.9 Ma implies that Acheulian stone tools were unambiguously present in North China during the Early Pleistocene. It distinctly enlarges the geographic distribution of Acheulian technology and brings its occurrence in North China back into the Early Pleistocene, which is contemporaneous with its first emergence in Europe. Combined with other archeological records, the larger area over which Acheulian technology existed in East Asia during the terminal Early Pleistocene has important implications for understanding early human occupation of North China.

The association between supportive relatives and lower occurrence of anxiety and depression in heart patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Camilla; Zinckernagel, Line; Schneekloth, Nanna

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Approximately 30-40% of heart patients develop anxiety and/or depression, which might influence recovery and long-term survival. Research has suggested that support from relatives may decrease anxiety and depression among heart patients; however, the results are inconsistent and often...... based on small study populations. AIM: The paper aimed to investigate the association between having supportive relatives and the occurrence of anxiety and depression in heart patients. METHODS: A population-based cross-sectional study among Danish patients diagnosed with ischemic heart disease, atrial...... fibrillation, heart failure, or heart valve disease. Presence of supportive relatives was measured as the degree to which the patients felt that they had relatives they could count on, while symptoms of anxiety and depression were measured by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Multiple logistic...

Occurrence of Salmonella in retail beef and related meat products in Zaria, Nigeria

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tafida, S.Y.; Kabir, J.; Kwaga, J.K.P.

2013-01-01

Salmonella is among the most important food borne pathogens worldwide contaminating a wide range of animal products including meat products. Human illnesses due to this pathogen are attributed to poor biosecurity in production, improper processing and handling of meat and meat products....... This is more likely where surveillance and regulatory control is weak. There is however limited information on the occurrence of these pathogens in foods in Nigeria. The extent of contamination of retail-beef and related meat products with Salmonellae in Zaria was evaluated. A total of 435 retailed beef...... and related meat products consisting of muscle meat, offal and processed meat products were tested for the presence of Salmonella species. Sample types included raw meat, ‘suya’ (roasted meat), ‘balangu’ (barbequed meat), ‘Kilishi’ (spiced sun dried meat) and ‘dambu’ (shredded fried meat). Samples were...

Fear or food ? abundance of red fox in relation to occurrence of lynx and wolf

OpenAIRE

Wikenros, Camilla; Aronsson, Malin; Liberg, Olof; Jarnemo, Anders; Hansson, Jessica; Wallgren, M?rtha; Sand, H?kan; Bergstr?m, Roger

2017-01-01

Apex predators may affect mesopredators through intraguild predation and/or supply of carrion from their prey, causing a trade-off between avoidance and attractiveness. We used wildlife triangle snow-tracking data to investigate the abundance of red fox (Vulpes vulpes) in relation to lynx (Lynx lynx) and wolf (Canis lupus) occurrence as well as land composition and vole (Microtus spp.)?density. Data from the Swedish wolf-monitoring system and VHF/GPS-collared wolves were used to study the eff...

Integrating occurrence and detectability patterns based on interview data: a case study for threatened mammals in Equatorial Guinea

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez-Martí, Chele; Jiménez-Franco, María V.; Royle, J. Andrew; Palazón, José A.; Calvo, José F.

2016-01-01

Occurrence models that account for imperfect detection of species are increasingly used for estimating geographical range, for determining species-landscape relations and to prioritize conservation actions worldwide. In 2010, we conducted a large-scale survey in Río Muni, the mainland territory of Equatorial Guinea, which aimed to estimate the probabilities of occurrence and detection of threatened mammals based on environmental covariates, and to identify priority areas for conservation. Interviews with hunters were designed to record presence/absence data of seven species (golden cat, leopard, forest elephant, forest buffalo, western gorilla, chimpanzee and mandrill) in 225 sites throughout the region. We fitted single season occupancy models and recently developed models which also include false positive errors (i.e. species detected in places where it actually does not occur), which should provide more accurate estimates for most species, which are susceptible to mis-identification. Golden cat and leopard had the lowest occurrence rates in the region, whereas primates had the highest rates. All species, except gorilla, were affected negatively by human settlements. The southern half of Río Muni showed the highest occurrence of the species studied, and conservation strategies for ensuring the persistence of threatened mammals should be focused on this area.

Probability concepts in quality risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Claycamp, H Gregg

2012-01-01

Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

Probability of Failure in Random Vibration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1988-01-01

Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out......-crossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval and thus for the first-passage probability...

Using Field Data and GIS-Derived Variables to Model Occurrence of Williamson's Sapsucker Nesting Habitat at Multiple Spatial Scales.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark C Drever

Full Text Available Williamson's sapsucker (Sphyrapicus thyroideus is a migratory woodpecker that breeds in mixed coniferous forests in western North America. In Canada, the range of this woodpecker is restricted to three small populations in southern British Columbia, precipitating a national listing as 'Endangered' in 2005, and the need to characterize critical habitat for its survival and recovery. We compared habitat attributes between Williamson's sapsucker nest territories and random points without nests or detections of this sapsucker as part of a resource selection analysis to identify the habitat features that best explain the probability of nest occurrence in two separate geographic regions in British Columbia. We compared the relative explanatory power of generalized linear models based on field-derived and Geographic Information System (GIS data within both a 225 m and 800 m radius of a nest or random point. The model based on field-derived variables explained the most variation in nest occurrence in the Okanagan-East Kootenay Region, whereas nest occurrence was best explained by GIS information at the 800 m scale in the Western Region. Probability of nest occurrence was strongly tied to densities of potential nest trees, which included open forests with very large (diameter at breast height, DBH, ≥57.5 cm western larch (Larix occidentalis trees in the Okanagan-East Kootenay Region, and very large ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa and large (DBH 17.5-57.5 cm trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides trees in the Western Region. Our results have the potential to guide identification and protection of critical habitat as required by the Species at Risk Act in Canada, and to better manage Williamson's sapsucker habitat overall in North America. In particular, management should focus on the maintenance and recruitment of very large western larch and ponderosa pine trees.

Survey of Pc3-5 ULF velocity oscillations in SuperDARN THEMIS-mode data: Occurrence statistics and driving mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, X.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Baker, J. B.; Lin, D.; Bland, E. C.; Hartinger, M.; Scales, W.

2017-12-01

Ultra-low frequency (ULF: 1 mHz-10 Hz) waves are believed to play an important role in the energization and transport of plasma within the magnetosphere-ionosphere system, as well as the transfer of energy from the solar wind. Most previous statistical studies of ionospheric ULF waves using Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) data have been constrained to the Pc5 band ( 1-7 mHz) and/or one or two radars covering a limited range of latitudes. This is partially due to lack of a database cataloging high time resolution data and an efficient way to identify wave events. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive survey of ULF wave signatures in the Pc3-5 band using 6 s resolution data from all SuperDARN radars in the northern hemisphere operating in THEMIS-mode from 2010 to 2016. Numerical experiments were conducted to derive dynamic thresholds for automated detection of ULF waves at different frequencies using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram technique. The spatial occurrence distribution, frequency characteristics, seasonal effects, solar wind condition and geomagnetic activity level dependence have been studied. We found Pc5 events dominate at high latitudes with a most probable frequency of 2 mHz while Pc3-4 are relatively more common at mid-latitudes on the nightside with a most probable frequency of 11 mHz. At high latitudes the occurrence rate of poloidal Pc3-5 peaks in the dusk sector and in winter while at mid-latitudes the poloidal Pc3-4 occurrence rate peaks at pre-midnight. This pre-midnight occurrence peak becomes more prominent with increasing AE index value, in equinox and during southward IMF, which suggests many of these events are most likely Pi2 pulsations associated with magnetotail dynamics during active geomagnetic intervals.

Using Field Data and GIS-Derived Variables to Model Occurrence of Williamson's Sapsucker Nesting Habitat at Multiple Spatial Scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Drever, Mark C; Gyug, Les W; Nielsen, Jennifer; Stuart-Smith, A Kari; Ohanjanian, I Penny; Martin, Kathy

2015-01-01

Williamson's sapsucker (Sphyrapicus thyroideus) is a migratory woodpecker that breeds in mixed coniferous forests in western North America. In Canada, the range of this woodpecker is restricted to three small populations in southern British Columbia, precipitating a national listing as 'Endangered' in 2005, and the need to characterize critical habitat for its survival and recovery. We compared habitat attributes between Williamson's sapsucker nest territories and random points without nests or detections of this sapsucker as part of a resource selection analysis to identify the habitat features that best explain the probability of nest occurrence in two separate geographic regions in British Columbia. We compared the relative explanatory power of generalized linear models based on field-derived and Geographic Information System (GIS) data within both a 225 m and 800 m radius of a nest or random point. The model based on field-derived variables explained the most variation in nest occurrence in the Okanagan-East Kootenay Region, whereas nest occurrence was best explained by GIS information at the 800 m scale in the Western Region. Probability of nest occurrence was strongly tied to densities of potential nest trees, which included open forests with very large (diameter at breast height, DBH, ≥57.5 cm) western larch (Larix occidentalis) trees in the Okanagan-East Kootenay Region, and very large ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and large (DBH 17.5-57.5 cm) trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) trees in the Western Region. Our results have the potential to guide identification and protection of critical habitat as required by the Species at Risk Act in Canada, and to better manage Williamson's sapsucker habitat overall in North America. In particular, management should focus on the maintenance and recruitment of very large western larch and ponderosa pine trees.

Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Taiki

2011-03-01

A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

Spatial pattern of groundwater arsenic occurrence and association with bedrock geology in greater augusta, maine

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Q.; Jung, H.B.; Culbertson, C.W.; Marvinney, R.G.; Loiselle, M.C.; Locke, D.B.; Cheek, H.; Thibodeau, H.; Zheng, Yen

2009-01-01

In New England, groundwater arsenic occurrence has been linked to bedrock geology on regional scales. To ascertain and quantify this linkage at intermediate (100-101 km) scales, 790 groundwater samples from fractured bedrock aquifers in the greater Augusta, Maine area are analyzed, and 31% of the sampled wells have arsenic concentrations >10 ??g/L. The probability of [As] exceeding 10 ??g/L mapped by indicator kriging is highest in Silurian pelite-sandstone and pelite-limestone units (???40%). This probability differs significantly (p bedrock map. Thus, bedrock geology is associated with arsenic occurrence in fractured bedrock aquifers of the study area at intermediate scales relevant to water resources planning. The arsenic exceedance rate for each rock unit is considered robust because low, medium, and high arsenic occurrences in four cluster areas (3-20 km2) with a low sampling density of 1-6 wells per km2 are comparable to those with a greater density of 5-42 wells per km2. About 12,000 people (21% of the population) in the greater Augusta area (???1135 km2) are at risk of exposure to >10 ??g/L arsenic in groundwater. ?? 2009 American Chemical Society.

Occurrence of mastitis pathogens in relation to somatic cells

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcela Vyletělová Klimešová

2013-01-01

Full Text Available There were examined 161 cows from 4 farms in total. The suspect animals were selected according to viscosity test results, clinical symptoms and somatic cell count (SCC. Milk samples were examined for the presence of pathogens and for SCC. 55 mastitis pathogens were identified. The most frequently isolated species was Enterococcus faecalis (n = 20, followed by Staphylococcus aureus (n = 6 and Streptococcus uberis (n = 5. The SCC ranged from 9 to 24 204 ths.ml−1. There was positive occurrence of bacteria genus Staphylococcus and Enterococcus at lower SCC (50 ths.ml−1 and at higher SCC numbers (> 300 ths. ml−1 bacteria genus Streptococcus, Enterobacter and Escherichia coli. Differences in SCC were significant (P < 0.001 in negative samples xg 131 SCC versus 491 for positive, 611 for staphylococci and 464 ths.ml−1 for other positive. SCC discrimination limit for practical likelihood of pathogen occurrence estimation in infectious sample groups was calculated. This limit for suspicion of infection is 159 for positive group, 113 for staphylococci and 174 ths.ml−1 for other positive. This could be possible to recommend the value 174 ths.ml−1 for practical use with target to apply preventive or curative measures.

On Selection of the Probability Distribution for Representing the Maximum Annual Wind Speed in East Cairo, Egypt

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Shanshoury, Gh. I.; El-Hemamy, S.T.

2013-01-01

The main objective of this paper is to identify an appropriate probability model and best plotting position formula which represent the maximum annual wind speed in east Cairo. This model can be used to estimate the extreme wind speed and return period at a particular site as well as to determine the radioactive release distribution in case of accident occurrence at a nuclear power plant. Wind speed probabilities can be estimated by using probability distributions. An accurate determination of probability distribution for maximum wind speed data is very important in expecting the extreme value . The probability plots of the maximum annual wind speed (MAWS) in east Cairo are fitted to six major statistical distributions namely: Gumbel, Weibull, Normal, Log-Normal, Logistic and Log- Logistic distribution, while eight plotting positions of Hosking and Wallis, Hazen, Gringorten, Cunnane, Blom, Filliben, Benard and Weibull are used for determining exceedance of their probabilities. A proper probability distribution for representing the MAWS is selected by the statistical test criteria in frequency analysis. Therefore, the best plotting position formula which can be used to select appropriate probability model representing the MAWS data must be determined. The statistical test criteria which represented in: the probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC), the root mean square error (RMSE), the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and the maximum absolute error (MAE) are used to select the appropriate probability position and distribution. The data obtained show that the maximum annual wind speed in east Cairo vary from 44.3 Km/h to 96.1 Km/h within duration of 39 years . Weibull plotting position combined with Normal distribution gave the highest fit, most reliable, accurate predictions and determination of the wind speed in the study area having the highest value of PPCC and lowest values of RMSE, RRMSE and MAE

Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

2004-01-01

We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

2017-03-01

Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.

Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory

Science.gov (United States)

Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag

2018-03-01

Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.

Effects of word frequency and transitional probability on word reading durations of younger and older speakers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Moers, C.; Meyer, A.S.; Janse, E.

2017-01-01

High-frequency units are usually processed faster than low-frequency units in language comprehension and language production. Frequency effects have been shown for words as well as word combinations. Word co-occurrence effects can be operationalized in terms of transitional probability (TP). TPs

Evaluating probability measures related to subsurface flow and transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cawlfield, J.D.

1991-01-01

Probabilistic modeling approaches are being used increasingly in order to carry out quantified risk analysis and to evaluate the uncertainty existing in subsurface flow and transport analyses. The work presented in this paper addresses three issues: comparison of common probabilistic modeling techniques, recent results regarding the sensitivity of probability measures to likely changes in the uncertain variables for transport in porous media, and a discussion of some questions regarding fundamental modeling philosophy within a probabilistic framework. Recent results indicate that uncertainty regarding average flow velocity controls the probabilistic outcome, while uncertainty in the dispersivity and diffusion coefficient does not seem very important. Uncertainty of reaction terms is important only at early times in the transport process. Questions are posed regarding (1) the inclusion of macrodispersion in a probabilistic analysis, (2) statistics of flow velocity and (3) the notion of an ultimate probability measure for subsurface flow analyses

Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

OpenAIRE

Saad, Emad

2013-01-01

Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

Short-term and long-term earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maura Murru

2010-11-01

Full Text Available This study describes three earthquake occurrence models as applied to the whole Italian territory, to assess the occurrence probabilities of future (M ≥5.0 earthquakes: two as short-term (24 hour models, and one as long-term (5 and 10 years. The first model for short-term forecasts is a purely stochastic epidemic type earthquake sequence (ETES model. The second short-term model is an epidemic rate-state (ERS forecast based on a model that is physically constrained by the application to the earthquake clustering of the Dieterich rate-state constitutive law. The third forecast is based on a long-term stress transfer (LTST model that considers the perturbations of earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changes. These models have been submitted to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP for forecast testing for Italy (ETH-Zurich, and they were locked down to test their validity on real data in a future setting starting from August 1, 2009.

Calculation of the Incremental Conditional Core Damage Probability on the Extension of Allowed Outage Time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Dae Il; Han, Sang Hoon

2006-01-01

RG 1.177 requires that the conditional risk (incremental conditional core damage probability and incremental conditional large early release probability: ICCDP and ICLERP), given that a specific component is out of service (OOS), be quantified for a permanent change of the allowed outage time (AOT) of a safety system. An AOT is the length of time that a particular component or system is permitted to be OOS while the plant is operating. The ICCDP is defined as: ICCDP = [(conditional CDF with the subject equipment OOS)- (baseline CDF with nominal expected equipment unavailabilities)] [duration of the single AOT under consideration]. Any event enabling the component OOS can initiate the time clock for the limiting condition of operation for a nuclear power plant. Thus, the largest ICCDP among the ICCDPs estimated from any occurrence of the basic events for the component fault tree should be selected for determining whether the AOT can be extended or not. If the component is under a preventive maintenance, the conditional risk can be straightforwardly calculated without changing the CCF probability. The main concern is the estimations of the CCF probability because there are the possibilities of the failures of other similar components due to the same root causes. The quantifications of the risk, given that a subject equipment is in a failed state, are performed by setting the identified event of subject equipment to TRUE. The CCF probabilities are also changed according to the identified failure cause. In the previous studies, however, the ICCDP was quantified with the consideration of the possibility of a simultaneous occurrence of two CCF events. Based on the above, we derived the formulas of the CCF probabilities for the cases where a specific component is in a failed state and we presented sample calculation results of the ICCDP for the low pressure safety injection system (LPSIS) of Ulchin Unit 3

A 'new' Cromer-related high frequency antigen probably antithetical to WES.

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, G L; Green, C A; Darr, F W; Anderson, H; Sistonen, P

1987-01-01

An antibody to a high frequency antigen, made in a WES+ Black antenatal patient (Wash.), failed to react with the red cells of a presumed WES+ homozygote and is, therefore, probably antithetical to anti-WES. Like anti-WES, it reacted with papain, ficin, trypsin or neuraminidase treated cells but not with alpha-chymotrypsin or pronase treated cells and was specifically inhibited by concentrated serum. It also reacted more strongly in titration with WES- cells than with WES+ cells. The antibody is Cromer-related as it failed to react with Inab phenotype (IFC-) cells and reacted only weakly with Dr(a-) cells. Wash. cells and those of the other possible WES+ homozygote are Cr(a+) Tc(a+b-c-) Dr(a+) IFC+ but reacted only very weakly with anti-Esa.

The probability and the management of human error

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dufey, R.B.; Saull, J.W.

2004-01-01

Embedded within modern technological systems, human error is the largest, and indeed dominant contributor to accident cause. The consequences dominate the risk profiles for nuclear power and for many other technologies. We need to quantify the probability of human error for the system as an integral contribution within the overall system failure, as it is generally not separable or predictable for actual events. We also need to provide a means to manage and effectively reduce the failure (error) rate. The fact that humans learn from their mistakes allows a new determination of the dynamic probability and human failure (error) rate in technological systems. The result is consistent with and derived from the available world data for modern technological systems. Comparisons are made to actual data from large technological systems and recent catastrophes. Best estimate values and relationships can be derived for both the human error rate, and for the probability. We describe the potential for new approaches to the management of human error and safety indicators, based on the principles of error state exclusion and of the systematic effect of learning. A new equation is given for the probability of human error (λ) that combines the influences of early inexperience, learning from experience (ε) and stochastic occurrences with having a finite minimum rate, this equation is λ 5.10 -5 + ((1/ε) - 5.10 -5 ) exp(-3*ε). The future failure rate is entirely determined by the experience: thus the past defines the future

Probability in quantum mechanics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. G. Gilson

1982-01-01

Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.

Towards a Formal Occurrence Logic based on Predicate Logic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Badie, Farshad; Götzsche, Hans

2015-01-01

In this discussion we will concentrate on the main characteristics of an alternative kind of logic invented by Hans Götzsche: Occurrence Logic, which is not based on truth functionality. Our approach is based on temporal logic developed and elaborated by A. N. Prior. We will focus on characterising...... argumentation based on formal Occurrence Logic concerning events and occurrences, and illustrate the relations between Predicate Logic and Occurrence Logic. The relationships (and dependencies) is conducive to an approach that can analyse the occurrences of ”logical statements based on different logical...... principles” in different moments. We will also conclude that the elaborated Götzsche’s Occurrence Logic could be able to direct us to a truth-functional independent computer-based logic for analysing argumentation based on events and occurrences....

Risk Assessment of Defect Occurrences in Engine Piston Castings by FMEA Method

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Piątkowski J.

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis method consists in analysis of failure modes and evaluation of their effects based on determination of cause-effect relationships for formation of possible product or process defects. Identified irregularities which occur during the production process of piston castings for internal combustion engines were ordered according to their failure rates, and using Pareto-Lorenz analysis, their per cent and cumulated shares were determined. The assessments of risk of defects occurrence and their causes were carried out in ten-point scale of integers, while taking three following criteria into account: significance of effects of the defect occurrence (LPZ, defect occurrence probability (LPW and detectability of the defect found (LPO. A product of these quantities constituted the risk score index connected with a failure occurrence (a so-called “priority number,” LPR. Based on the observations of the piston casting process and on the knowledge of production supervisors, a set of corrective actions was developed and the FMEA was carried out again. It was shown that the proposed improvements reduce the risk of occurrence of process failures significantly, translating into a decrease in defects and irregularities during the production of piston castings for internal combustion engines.

Occurrence and distribution of Indian primates

Science.gov (United States)

Karanth, K.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

2010-01-01

Global and regional species conservation efforts are hindered by poor distribution data and range maps. Many Indian primates face extinction, but assessments of population status are hindered by lack of reliable distribution data. We estimated the current occurrence and distribution of 15 Indian primates by applying occupancy models to field data from a country-wide survey of local experts. We modeled species occurrence in relation to ecological and social covariates (protected areas, landscape characteristics, and human influences), which we believe are critical to determining species occurrence in India. We found evidence that protected areas positively influence occurrence of seven species and for some species are their only refuge. We found evergreen forests to be more critical for some primates along with temperate and deciduous forests. Elevation negatively influenced occurrence of three species. Lower human population density was positively associated with occurrence of five species, and higher cultural tolerance was positively associated with occurrence of three species. We find that 11 primates occupy less than 15% of the total land area of India. Vulnerable primates with restricted ranges are Golden langur, Arunachal macaque, Pig-tailed macaque, stump-tailed macaque, Phayre's leaf monkey, Nilgiri langur and Lion-tailed macaque. Only Hanuman langur and rhesus macaque are widely distributed. We find occupancy modeling to be useful in determining species ranges, and in agreement with current species ranking and IUCN status. In landscapes where monitoring efforts require optimizing cost, effort and time, we used ecological and social covariates to reliably estimate species occurrence and focus species conservation efforts. ?? Elsevier Ltd.

USING THE WEB-SERVICES WOLFRAM|ALPHA TO SOLVE PROBLEMS IN PROBABILITY THEORY

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Taras Kobylnyk

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The trend towards the use of remote network resources on the Internet clearly delineated. Traditional training combined with increasingly networked, remote technologies become popular cloud computing. Research methods of probability theory are used in various fields. Of particular note is the use of methods of probability theory in psychological and educational research in statistical analysis of experimental data. Conducting such research is impossible without the use of modern information technology. Given the advantages of web-based software, the article describes web-service Wolfram|Alpha. Detailed analysis of the possibilities of using web-service Wolfram|Alpha for solving problems of probability theory. In the case studies described the results of queries for solving of probability theory, in particular the sections random events and random variables. Considered and analyzed the problem of the number of occurrences of event A in n independent trials using Wolfram|Alpha, detailed analysis of the possibilities of using the service Wolfram|Alpha for the study of continuous random variable that has a normal and uniform probability distribution, including calculating the probability of getting the value of a random variable in a given interval. The problem in applying the binomial and hypergeometric probability distribution of a discrete random variable and demonstrates the possibility of using the service Wolfram|Alpha for solving it.

Choice probability generating functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

2010-01-01

This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

Spatial Pattern of Groundwater Arsenic Occurrence and Association with Bedrock Geology in Greater Augusta, Maine, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Qiang; Jung, Hun Bok; Culbertson, Charles W.; Marvinney, Robert G.; Loiselle, Marc C.; Locke, Daniel B.; Cheek, Heidi; Thibodeau, Hilary; Zheng, Yan

2009-01-01

In New England, groundwater arsenic occurrence has been linked to bedrock geology on regional scales. To ascertain and quantify this linkage at intermediate (100-101 km) scales, 790 groundwater samples from fractured bedrock aquifers in the greater Augusta, Maine area are analyzed. 31% of the sampled wells have arsenic >10 μg/L. The probability of [As] exceeding 10 μg/L mapped by indicator kriging is highest in Silurian pelite-sandstone and pelite-limestone units (~40%). This probability differs significantly (pbedrock map. Thus, bedrock geology is associated with arsenic occurrence in fractured bedrock aquifers of the study area at intermediate scales relevant to water resources planning. The arsenic exceedance rate for each rock unit is considered robust because low, medium and high arsenic occurrences in 4 cluster areas (3-20 km2) with a low sampling density of 1-6 wells per km2 are comparable to those with a greater density of 5-42 wells per km2. About 12,000 people (21% of the population) in the greater Augusta area (~1135 km2) are at risk of exposure to >10 μg/L arsenic in groundwater. PMID:19475939

Quantum processes: probability fluxes, transition probabilities in unit time and vacuum vibrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oleinik, V.P.; Arepjev, Ju D.

1989-01-01

Transition probabilities in unit time and probability fluxes are compared in studying the elementary quantum processes -the decay of a bound state under the action of time-varying and constant electric fields. It is shown that the difference between these quantities may be considerable, and so the use of transition probabilities W instead of probability fluxes Π, in calculating the particle fluxes, may lead to serious errors. The quantity W represents the rate of change with time of the population of the energy levels relating partly to the real states and partly to the virtual ones, and it cannot be directly measured in experiment. The vacuum background is shown to be continuously distorted when a perturbation acts on a system. Because of this the viewpoint of an observer on the physical properties of real particles continuously varies with time. This fact is not taken into consideration in the conventional theory of quantum transitions based on using the notion of probability amplitude. As a result, the probability amplitudes lose their physical meaning. All the physical information on quantum dynamics of a system is contained in the mean values of physical quantities. The existence of considerable differences between the quantities W and Π permits one in principle to make a choice of the correct theory of quantum transitions on the basis of experimental data. (author)

More than words: Adults learn probabilities over categories and relationships between them.

Science.gov (United States)

Hudson Kam, Carla L

2009-04-01

This study examines whether human learners can acquire statistics over abstract categories and their relationships to each other. Adult learners were exposed to miniature artificial languages containing variation in the ordering of the Subject, Object, and Verb constituents. Different orders (e.g. SOV, VSO) occurred in the input with different frequencies, but the occurrence of one order versus another was not predictable. Importantly, the language was constructed such that participants could only match the overall input probabilities if they were tracking statistics over abstract categories, not over individual words. At test, participants reproduced the probabilities present in the input with a high degree of accuracy. Closer examination revealed that learner's were matching the probabilities associated with individual verbs rather than the category as a whole. However, individual nouns had no impact on word orders produced. Thus, participants learned the probabilities of a particular ordering of the abstract grammatical categories Subject and Object associated with each verb. Results suggest that statistical learning mechanisms are capable of tracking relationships between abstract linguistic categories in addition to individual items.

More intense experiences, less intense forecasts: why people overweight probability specifications in affective forecasts.

Science.gov (United States)

Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K; Vosgerau, Joachim

2014-01-01

We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6).

Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

OpenAIRE

Burgin, Mark

2013-01-01

Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

Association of genetic variants of the incretin-related genes with quantitative traits and occurrence of type 2 diabetes in Japanese.

Science.gov (United States)

Enya, Mayumi; Horikawa, Yukio; Iizuka, Katsumi; Takeda, Jun

2014-01-01

None of the high frequency variants of the incretin-related genes has been found by genome-wide association study (GWAS) for association with occurrence of type 2 diabetes in Japanese. However, low frequency and rare and/or high frequency variants affecting glucose metabolic traits remain to be investigated. We screened all exons of the incretin-related genes ( GCG , GLP1R , DPP4 , PCSK1 , GIP , and GIPR ) in 96 patients with type 2 diabetes and investigated for association of genetic variants of these genes with quantitative metabolic traits upon test meal with 38 young healthy volunteers and with the occurrence of type 2 diabetes in Japanese subjects comprising 1303 patients with type 2 diabetes and 1014 controls. Two mutations of GIPR , p.Thr3Alafsx21 and Arg183Gln, were found only in patients with type 2 diabetes, and both of them were treated with insulin. Of ten tagSNPs, we found that risk allele C of SNP393 (rs6235) of PCSK1 was nominally associated with higher fasting insulin and HOMA-R ( P  = 0.034 and P  = 0.030), but not with proinsulin level, incretin level or BMI. The variant showed significant association with occurrence of type 2 diabetes after adjustment for age, sex, and BMI ( P  = 0.0043). Rare variants of GIPR may contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes, possibly through insulin secretory defects. Furthermore, the genetic variant of PCSK1 might influence glucose homeostasis by altered insulin resistance independently of BMI, incretin level or proinsulin conversion, and may be associated with the occurrence of type 2 diabetes in Japanese.

Uranium occurrences of the Thunder Bay-Nipigon-Marathon area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, J.F.

1987-01-01

During the 1981, 1982 and 1983 field seasons an inventory of all known uranium occurrences in the North Central Region of Ontario was undertaken. Three major categories of uranium occurrences were identified: uranium associated with the rocks of the Quetico Subprovince; uranium associated with the Proterozoic/Archean unconformity; and uranium associated with alkalic and carbonatite rocks of Late Precambrian age. Occurrences associated with the Quetico Belt are in white, albite-quartz-muscovite pegmatites. Occurrences associated with the Proterozoic/Archean unconformity are usually of high gradee (up to 12% U 3 O 8 ), nearly always hematized and are related to fault or shear zones proximal to the unconformity. Although of high grade, many of the unconformity related occurrences are very narrow (<1 m). Alkalic and carbonatite rocks of Late Precambrian age are an important source of uranium but possible metallurgical problems might downgrade their potential. The Quetico Subprovince is anomalously high in background uranium, and therefore contains important source rocks for uranium. Areas that have the highest potential for uranium deposits in the North Central Region are the Nipigon Basin area, and the areas underlain by the Gunflint and Rove Formations. All the high grade vein-type uranium deposits related to the unconformity are found within the Nipigon Basin. 126 refs

Autosomal dominant cortical tremor, myoclonus, and epilepsy (ADCME: Probable first family from India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chandra Mohan Sharma

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Autosomal dominant cortical tremor, myoclonus, and epilepsy (ADCME is an extremely rare syndrome characterized by familial occurrence of postural and action-induced tremors of the hands but showing electrophysiologic findings of cortical reflex myoclonus. Patients also have cognitive decline and tonic-clonic seizures, often precipitated by sleep deprivation or photic stimulation. We describe probably the first family from India of this ill-defined syndrome.

Irreversibility and conditional probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stuart, C.I.J.M.

1989-01-01

The mathematical entropy - unlike physical entropy - is simply a measure of uniformity for probability distributions in general. So understood, conditional entropies have the same logical structure as conditional probabilities. If, as is sometimes supposed, conditional probabilities are time-reversible, then so are conditional entropies and, paradoxically, both then share this symmetry with physical equations of motion. The paradox is, of course that probabilities yield a direction to time both in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, while the equations of motion do not. The supposed time-reversibility of both conditionals seems also to involve a form of retrocausality that is related to, but possibly not the same as, that described by Costa de Beaurgard. The retrocausality is paradoxically at odds with the generally presumed irreversibility of the quantum mechanical measurement process. Further paradox emerges if the supposed time-reversibility of the conditionals is linked with the idea that the thermodynamic entropy is the same thing as 'missing information' since this confounds the thermodynamic and mathematical entropies. However, it is shown that irreversibility is a formal consequence of conditional entropies and, hence, of conditional probabilities also. 8 refs. (Author)

Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.

2007-01-01

Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…

Evaluation of nuclear power plant component failure probability and core damage probability using simplified PSA model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimada, Yoshio

2000-01-01

It is anticipated that the change of frequency of surveillance tests, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of safety related components may cause the change of component failure probability and result in the change of core damage probability. It is also anticipated that the change is different depending on the initiating event frequency or the component types. This study assessed the change of core damage probability using simplified PSA model capable of calculating core damage probability in a short time period, which is developed by the US NRC to process accident sequence precursors, when various component's failure probability is changed between 0 and 1, or Japanese or American initiating event frequency data are used. As a result of the analysis, (1) It was clarified that frequency of surveillance test, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of motor driven pumps (high pressure injection pumps, residual heat removal pumps, auxiliary feedwater pumps) should be carefully changed, since the core damage probability's change is large, when the base failure probability changes toward increasing direction. (2) Core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance test frequency change, since the core damage probability change is small, when motor operated valves and turbine driven auxiliary feed water pump failure probability changes around one figure. (3) Core damage probability change is small, when Japanese failure probability data are applied to emergency diesel generator, even if failure probability changes one figure from the base value. On the other hand, when American failure probability data is applied, core damage probability increase is large, even if failure probability changes toward increasing direction. Therefore, when Japanese failure probability data is applied, core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance tests frequency change etc. (author)

The 'time of occurrence' in quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Srinivas, M.D.; Vijayalakshmi, R.

1981-01-01

Apart from serving as a parameter in describing the evolution of a system, time appears also as an observable property of a system in experiments where one measures 'the time of occurrence' of an event associated with the system. However, while the observables normally encountered in quantum theory (and characterized by self-adjoint operators or projection-valued measures) correspond to instantaneous measurements, a time of occurrence measurement involves continuous observations being performed on the system to monitor when the event occurs. It is argued that a time of occurrence observable should be represented by a positive-operator-valued measure on the interval over which the experiment is carried out. It is shown that while the requirement of time-translation invariance and the spectral condition rule out the possibility of a self-adjoint time operator (Pauli's theorem), they do allow for time of occurrence observables to be represented by suitable positive-operator-valued measures. It is also shown that the uncertainty in the time of occurrence of an event satisfies the time-energy uncertainty relation as a consequence of the time-translation invariance, only if the time of occurrence experiment is performed on the entire time axis. (author)

Has David Howden Vindicated Richard von Mises’s Definition of Probability?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark R. Crovelli

2009-11-01

Full Text Available In my recent article on these pages (Crovelli 2009 I argued that members of the Austrian School of economics have adopted and defended a faulty definition of probability. I argued that the definition of probability necessarily depends upon the nature of the world in which we live. I claimed that if the nature of the world is such that every event and phenomenon which occurs has a cause of some sort, then probability must be defined subjectively; that is, “as a measure of our uncertainty about the likelihood of occurrence of some event or phenomenon, based upon evidence that need not derive solely from past frequencies of ‘collectives’ or ‘classes.’” I further claimed that the nature of the world is indeed such that all events and phenomena have prior causes, and that this fact compels us to adopt a subjective definition of probability.David Howden has recently published what he claims is a refutation of my argument in his article “Single Trial Probability Applications: Can Subjectivity Evade Frequency Limitations” (Howden 2009. Unfortunately, Mr. Howden appears to not have understood my argument, and his purported refutation of my subjective definition consequently amounts to nothing more than a concatenation of confused and fallacious ideas that are completely irrelevant to my argument. David Howden has thus failed in his attempt to vindicate Richard von Mises’s definition of probability.

Co-occurrence of substance use related and mental health problems in the Finnish social and health care system.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuussaari, Kristiina; Hirschovits-Gerz, Tanja

2016-03-01

Many studies have noted that substance abuse and mental health problems often occur simultaneously. The aim of the work reported here was to study the co-occurrence of mental health problems and problems related to substance use in a sample of clients visiting the Finnish social and health care services for issues related to substance use. We collected background information on the clients and considered the parts of the treatment system in which these clients were treated. Survey data on intoxicant-related cases in the Finnish health care and social services were gathered on a single day in 2011. During the 24 hours of data collection, all intoxicant-related cases were reported and data were obtained for 11,738 intoxicant-related cases. In this analysis we took into account the clients' background variables, mental health variables, information on the treatment type and the main reasons for the client being in treatment. The χ(2) test, Fisher's exact test and binary logistic regression analysis were used. Half of the visiting clients had both substance use related and mental health problems. The strongest factors associated with the co-occurrence of substance use related and mental health problems were female sex, younger age and single marital status. Clients with co-occurring problems were more often treated in the health care services, whereas clients with only substance use related problems were primarily treated in specialized services for the treatment of substance abuse. It is important to identify clients with co-occurring substance use related and mental health problems. In this study, half of the clients presenting to the Finnish social and health care treatment system had both these problems. © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Myeloperoxidase-positive cell infiltration of normal colorectal mucosa is related to body fatness and is predictive of adenoma occurrence.

Science.gov (United States)

Mariani, F; Boarino, V; Bertani, A; Merighi, A; Pedroni, M; Rossi, G; Mancini, S; Sena, P; Benatti, P; Roncucci, L

2017-06-01

Body fatness is a risk factor for colorectal cancer, and promotes an inflammatory environment. Indeed, inflammation in normal colorectal mucosa may be a factor linking body fatness to colorectal carcinogenesis. In this study, we evaluated myeloperoxidase (MPO)-positive cells infiltration of normal colorectal mucosa as a marker of cancer-promoting inflammation in overweight and obese subjects. One hundred and three subjects with normal colonoscopy entered the study. Waist circumference (WC) and body mass index (BMI) were measured, and MPO-positive cells on histological sections of biopsies of normal colorectal mucosa were counted under a light microscope. The occurrence of adenomas was then evaluated on follow-up colonoscopies. Mean MPO-positive cell count (±s.e.m.) was higher in subject with a WC equal or above the obesity cutoff values according to gender (2.63±0.20 vs 2.06±0.18, P=0.03), and in subjects with BMI equal or above 25 kg m - 2 (2.54±0.18 vs 1.97±0.20, P=0.03). A Cox proportional hazard model showed that mean MPO-positive cell count in normal colorectal mucosa was the only factor independently related to occurrence of adenomas in follow-up colonoscopies. Though preliminary, these results show that MPO-positive cell infiltration in normal colorectal mucosa is related with body fatness, as evaluated by WC and BMI, and it may be considered a useful and simple marker to estimate adenoma occurrence risk.

Gene and antigen markers of Shiga-toxin producing E. coli from Michigan and Indiana river water: Occurrence and relation to recreational water quality criteria

Science.gov (United States)

Duris, J.W.; Haack, S.K.; Fogarty, L.R.

2009-01-01

The relation of bacterial pathogen occurrence to fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) concentrations used for recreational water quality criteria (RWQC) is poorly understood. This study determined the occurrence of Shiga-toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) markers and their relation to FIB concentrations in Michigan and Indiana river water. Using 67 fecal coliform (FC) bacteria cultures from 41 river sites in multiple watersheds, we evaluated the occurrence of five STEC markers: the Escherichia coli (EC) O157 antigen and gene, and the STEC virulence genes eaeA, stx1, and stx2. Simple isolations from selected FC cultures yielded viable EC O157. By both antigen and gene assays, EC O157 was detected in a greater proportion of samples exceeding rather than meeting FC RWQC (P public health decision-making. Copyright ?? 2009 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Predicting Seagrass Occurrence in a Changing Climate Using Random Forests

Science.gov (United States)

Aydin, O.; Butler, K. A.

2017-12-01

Seagrasses are marine plants that can quickly sequester vast amounts of carbon (up to 100 times more and 12 times faster than tropical forests). In this work, we present an integrated GIS and machine learning approach to build a data-driven model of seagrass presence-absence. We outline a random forest approach that avoids the prevalence bias in many ecological presence-absence models. One of our goals is to predict global seagrass occurrence from a spatially limited training sample. In addition, we conduct a sensitivity study which investigates the vulnerability of seagrass to changing climate conditions. We integrate multiple data sources including fine-scale seagrass data from MarineCadastre.gov and the recently available globally extensive publicly available Ecological Marine Units (EMU) dataset. These data are used to train a model for seagrass occurrence along the U.S. coast. In situ oceans data are interpolated using Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) to produce globally extensive prediction variables. A neural network is used to estimate probable future values of prediction variables such as ocean temperature to assess the impact of a warming climate on seagrass occurrence. The proposed workflow can be generalized to many presence-absence models.

Probability matching in perceptrons: Effects of conditional dependence and linear nonseparability.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael R W Dawson

Full Text Available Probability matching occurs when the behavior of an agent matches the likelihood of occurrence of events in the agent's environment. For instance, when artificial neural networks match probability, the activity in their output unit equals the past probability of reward in the presence of a stimulus. Our previous research demonstrated that simple artificial neural networks (perceptrons, which consist of a set of input units directly connected to a single output unit learn to match probability when presented different cues in isolation. The current paper extends this research by showing that perceptrons can match probabilities when presented simultaneous cues, with each cue signaling different reward likelihoods. In our first simulation, we presented up to four different cues simultaneously; the likelihood of reward signaled by the presence of one cue was independent of the likelihood of reward signaled by other cues. Perceptrons learned to match reward probabilities by treating each cue as an independent source of information about the likelihood of reward. In a second simulation, we violated the independence between cues by making some reward probabilities depend upon cue interactions. We did so by basing reward probabilities on a logical combination (AND or XOR of two of the four possible cues. We also varied the size of the reward associated with the logical combination. We discovered that this latter manipulation was a much better predictor of perceptron performance than was the logical structure of the interaction between cues. This indicates that when perceptrons learn to match probabilities, they do so by assuming that each signal of a reward is independent of any other; the best predictor of perceptron performance is a quantitative measure of the independence of these input signals, and not the logical structure of the problem being learned.

Probability matching in perceptrons: Effects of conditional dependence and linear nonseparability

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

Probability matching occurs when the behavior of an agent matches the likelihood of occurrence of events in the agent’s environment. For instance, when artificial neural networks match probability, the activity in their output unit equals the past probability of reward in the presence of a stimulus. Our previous research demonstrated that simple artificial neural networks (perceptrons, which consist of a set of input units directly connected to a single output unit) learn to match probability when presented different cues in isolation. The current paper extends this research by showing that perceptrons can match probabilities when presented simultaneous cues, with each cue signaling different reward likelihoods. In our first simulation, we presented up to four different cues simultaneously; the likelihood of reward signaled by the presence of one cue was independent of the likelihood of reward signaled by other cues. Perceptrons learned to match reward probabilities by treating each cue as an independent source of information about the likelihood of reward. In a second simulation, we violated the independence between cues by making some reward probabilities depend upon cue interactions. We did so by basing reward probabilities on a logical combination (AND or XOR) of two of the four possible cues. We also varied the size of the reward associated with the logical combination. We discovered that this latter manipulation was a much better predictor of perceptron performance than was the logical structure of the interaction between cues. This indicates that when perceptrons learn to match probabilities, they do so by assuming that each signal of a reward is independent of any other; the best predictor of perceptron performance is a quantitative measure of the independence of these input signals, and not the logical structure of the problem being learned. PMID:28212422

Probability matching in perceptrons: Effects of conditional dependence and linear nonseparability.

Science.gov (United States)

Dawson, Michael R W; Gupta, Maya

2017-01-01

Probability matching occurs when the behavior of an agent matches the likelihood of occurrence of events in the agent's environment. For instance, when artificial neural networks match probability, the activity in their output unit equals the past probability of reward in the presence of a stimulus. Our previous research demonstrated that simple artificial neural networks (perceptrons, which consist of a set of input units directly connected to a single output unit) learn to match probability when presented different cues in isolation. The current paper extends this research by showing that perceptrons can match probabilities when presented simultaneous cues, with each cue signaling different reward likelihoods. In our first simulation, we presented up to four different cues simultaneously; the likelihood of reward signaled by the presence of one cue was independent of the likelihood of reward signaled by other cues. Perceptrons learned to match reward probabilities by treating each cue as an independent source of information about the likelihood of reward. In a second simulation, we violated the independence between cues by making some reward probabilities depend upon cue interactions. We did so by basing reward probabilities on a logical combination (AND or XOR) of two of the four possible cues. We also varied the size of the reward associated with the logical combination. We discovered that this latter manipulation was a much better predictor of perceptron performance than was the logical structure of the interaction between cues. This indicates that when perceptrons learn to match probabilities, they do so by assuming that each signal of a reward is independent of any other; the best predictor of perceptron performance is a quantitative measure of the independence of these input signals, and not the logical structure of the problem being learned.

The probability representation as a new formulation of quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Man'ko, Margarita A; Man'ko, Vladimir I

2012-01-01

We present a new formulation of conventional quantum mechanics, in which the notion of a quantum state is identified via a fair probability distribution of the position measured in a reference frame of the phase space with rotated axes. In this formulation, the quantum evolution equation as well as the equation for finding energy levels are expressed as linear equations for the probability distributions that determine the quantum states. We also give the integral transforms relating the probability distribution (called the tomographic-probability distribution or the state tomogram) to the density matrix and the Wigner function and discuss their connection with the Radon transform. Qudit states are considered and the invertible map of the state density operators onto the probability vectors is discussed. The tomographic entropies and entropic uncertainty relations are reviewed. We demonstrate the uncertainty relations for the position and momentum and the entropic uncertainty relations in the tomographic-probability representation, which is suitable for an experimental check of the uncertainty relations.

Default probabilities and default correlations

OpenAIRE

Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans

2001-01-01

Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...

Probability

CERN Document Server

Shiryaev, A N

1996-01-01

This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables

Using Logistic Regression to Predict the Probability of Debris Flows in Areas Burned by Wildfires, Southern California, 2003-2006

Science.gov (United States)

Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Helsel, Dennis R.

2008-01-01

Logistic regression was used to develop statistical models that can be used to predict the probability of debris flows in areas recently burned by wildfires by using data from 14 wildfires that burned in southern California during 2003-2006. Twenty-eight independent variables describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties of 306 drainage basins located within those burned areas were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows soon after the 2003 to 2006 fires were delineated from data in the National Elevation Dataset using a geographic information system; (2) Data describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were compiled for each basin. These data were then input to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression; and (3) Relations between the occurrence or absence of debris flows and the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated, and five multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combinations produced the most effective models, and the multivariate models that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows were identified. Percentage of high burn severity and 3-hour peak rainfall intensity were significant variables in all models. Soil organic matter content and soil clay content were significant variables in all models except Model 5. Soil slope was a significant variable in all models except Model 4. The most suitable model can be selected from these five models on the basis of the availability of independent variables in the particular area of interest and field checking of probability maps. The multivariate logistic regression models can be entered into a geographic information system, and maps showing the probability of debris flows can be constructed in recently burned areas of

Epithermal gold occurrences in the lakes district of the Main ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

MER). Epithermal gold occurrences related to Quaternary volcanics are at present being closely studied for their precious metal potential. Low sulphidation (Adularia-sericite-type) occurrences have been found. Analyses of 579 core and cutting ...

Free probability and random matrices

CERN Document Server

Mingo, James A

2017-01-01

This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.

Linking occurrence and fitness to persistence: Habitat-based approach for endangered Greater Sage-Grouse

Science.gov (United States)

Aldridge, Cameron L.; Boyce, Mark S.

2007-01-01

Detailed empirical models predicting both species occurrence and fitness across a landscape are necessary to understand processes related to population persistence. Failure to consider both occurrence and fitness may result in incorrect assessments of habitat importance leading to inappropriate management strategies. We took a two-stage approach to identifying critical nesting and brood-rearing habitat for the endangered Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Alberta at a landscape scale. First, we used logistic regression to develop spatial models predicting the relative probability of use (occurrence) for Sage-Grouse nests and broods. Secondly, we used Cox proportional hazards survival models to identify the most risky habitats across the landscape. We combined these two approaches to identify Sage-Grouse habitats that pose minimal risk of failure (source habitats) and attractive sink habitats that pose increased risk (ecological traps). Our models showed that Sage-Grouse select for heterogeneous patches of moderate sagebrush cover (quadratic relationship) and avoid anthropogenic edge habitat for nesting. Nests were more successful in heterogeneous habitats, but nest success was independent of anthropogenic features. Similarly, broods selected heterogeneous high-productivity habitats with sagebrush while avoiding human developments, cultivated cropland, and high densities of oil wells. Chick mortalities tended to occur in proximity to oil and gas developments and along riparian habitats. For nests and broods, respectively, approximately 10% and 5% of the study area was considered source habitat, whereas 19% and 15% of habitat was attractive sink habitat. Limited source habitats appear to be the main reason for poor nest success (39%) and low chick survival (12%). Our habitat models identify areas of protection priority and areas that require immediate management attention to enhance recruitment to secure the viability of this population. This novel

Co‐occurrence dynamics of endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbits and free‐ranging domestic cats: Prey responses to an exotic predator removal program

Science.gov (United States)

Cove, Michael V.; Gardner, Beth; Simons, Theodore R.; O'Connell, Allan F.

2018-01-01

The Lower Keys marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri) is one of many endangered endemic species of the Florida Keys. The main threats are habitat loss and fragmentation from sea‐level rise, development, and habitat succession. Exotic predators such as free‐ranging domestic cats (Felis catus) pose an additional threat to these endangered small mammals. Management strategies have focused on habitat restoration and exotic predator control. However, the effectiveness of predator removal and the effects of anthropogenic habitat modifications and restoration have not been evaluated. Between 2013 and 2015, we used camera traps to survey marsh rabbits and free‐ranging cats at 84 sites in the National Key Deer Refuge, Big Pine Key, Florida, USA. We used dynamic occupancy models to determine factors associated with marsh rabbit occurrence, colonization, extinction, and the co‐occurrence of marsh rabbits and cats during a period of predator removal. Rabbit occurrence was positively related to freshwater habitat and patch size, but was negatively related to the number of individual cats detected at each site. Furthermore, marsh rabbit colonization was negatively associated with relative increases in the number of individual cats at each site between survey years. Cat occurrence was negatively associated with increasing distance from human developments. The probability of cat site extinction was positively related to a 2‐year trapping effort, indicating that predator removal reduced the cat population. Dynamic co‐occurrence models suggested that cats and marsh rabbits co‐occur less frequently than expected under random conditions, whereas co‐detections were site and survey‐specific. Rabbit site extinction and colonization were not strongly conditional on cat presence, but corresponded with a negative association. Our results suggest that while rabbits can colonize and persist at sites where cats occur, it is the number of individual cats at a site that

Co-occurrence dynamics of endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbits and free-ranging domestic cats: Prey responses to an exotic predator removal program.

Science.gov (United States)

Cove, Michael V; Gardner, Beth; Simons, Theodore R; O'Connell, Allan F

2018-04-01

The Lower Keys marsh rabbit ( Sylvilagus palustris hefneri ) is one of many endangered endemic species of the Florida Keys. The main threats are habitat loss and fragmentation from sea-level rise, development, and habitat succession. Exotic predators such as free-ranging domestic cats ( Felis catus ) pose an additional threat to these endangered small mammals. Management strategies have focused on habitat restoration and exotic predator control. However, the effectiveness of predator removal and the effects of anthropogenic habitat modifications and restoration have not been evaluated. Between 2013 and 2015, we used camera traps to survey marsh rabbits and free-ranging cats at 84 sites in the National Key Deer Refuge, Big Pine Key, Florida, USA. We used dynamic occupancy models to determine factors associated with marsh rabbit occurrence, colonization, extinction, and the co-occurrence of marsh rabbits and cats during a period of predator removal. Rabbit occurrence was positively related to freshwater habitat and patch size, but was negatively related to the number of individual cats detected at each site. Furthermore, marsh rabbit colonization was negatively associated with relative increases in the number of individual cats at each site between survey years. Cat occurrence was negatively associated with increasing distance from human developments. The probability of cat site extinction was positively related to a 2-year trapping effort, indicating that predator removal reduced the cat population. Dynamic co-occurrence models suggested that cats and marsh rabbits co-occur less frequently than expected under random conditions, whereas co-detections were site and survey-specific. Rabbit site extinction and colonization were not strongly conditional on cat presence, but corresponded with a negative association. Our results suggest that while rabbits can colonize and persist at sites where cats occur, it is the number of individual cats at a site that more strongly

UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) probability wheel

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Sheng-Cheng; Lee, Sara; Wang, Allen; Cantor, Scott B.; Sun, Clement; Fan, Kaili; Reece, Gregory P.; Kim, Min Soon; Markey, Mia K.

A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an "investigator" and a "participant", about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.

The occurrence of ferropyrosmalite in the mineralized breccias from Igarape Bahia (North region, Brazil) Au-Cu (± ETR-U) deposit, Carajas mineral Province

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tazava, Edison; Gomes, Newton Souza; Oliveira, Claudinei Gouveia de

1999-01-01

In the last years, several works report the presence of pyrosmalite mineral series [(Fe, Mn) 8 Si 6 O 15 (OH, Cl) 10 ] commonly associated with volcanic exhalative massive sulphide or Fe-Mn metamorphosed deposits. In this paper, we present the inedit occurrence of ferropyrosmalite in the Au-Cu (± REE-U) of Igarape Bahia deposit, located in the Au-Cu district of the Carajas Mineral Province. We consider the Igarape Bahia mineralization as being related to the genesis of iron-oxide class deposit, like the Olympic Dam type. Ferropyrosmalite occurs in two different contexts: associated with carbonate veins; associated with heterolithic breccias, composed by BIF and mafic metavolcanic fragments immersed in a magnetic, chalcopyrite, bornite, pyrite, carbonates (calcite to siderite), uranium and REE minerals, and gold, - rich matrix. The growth of ferropyrosmalite is probably due to the substitution of iron rich minerals (chloride, magnetite and siderite), controlled by magmatic fluid influx rich in chlorine. The permeability of breccias and the discontinuity of veins favour fluid percolation. The mode of occurrence of ferropyrosmalite and its relation with amphibole (ferro-hornblende-actinolite) indicate metasomatic growth of the former under temperatures in the transition of greenschist/amphibolite facies. The ferropyrosmalite of the Igarape Bahia deposit represents an uncommon type of occurrence linked to hydrothermal/magmatic conditions. (author)

Continental-scale simulation of burn probabilities, flame lengths, and fire size distribution for the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Isaac Grenfell; Karin L. Riley

2010-01-01

Components of a quantitative risk assessment were produced by simulation of burn probabilities and fire behavior variation for 134 fire planning units (FPUs) across the continental U.S. The system uses fire growth simulation of ignitions modeled from relationships between large fire occurrence and the fire danger index Energy Release Component (ERC). Simulations of 10,...

Probability Distributome: A Web Computational Infrastructure for Exploring the Properties, Interrelations, and Applications of Probability Distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Dinov, Ivo D; Siegrist, Kyle; Pearl, Dennis K; Kalinin, Alexandr; Christou, Nicolas

2016-06-01

Probability distributions are useful for modeling, simulation, analysis, and inference on varieties of natural processes and physical phenomena. There are uncountably many probability distributions. However, a few dozen families of distributions are commonly defined and are frequently used in practice for problem solving, experimental applications, and theoretical studies. In this paper, we present a new computational and graphical infrastructure, the Distributome , which facilitates the discovery, exploration and application of diverse spectra of probability distributions. The extensible Distributome infrastructure provides interfaces for (human and machine) traversal, search, and navigation of all common probability distributions. It also enables distribution modeling, applications, investigation of inter-distribution relations, as well as their analytical representations and computational utilization. The entire Distributome framework is designed and implemented as an open-source, community-built, and Internet-accessible infrastructure. It is portable, extensible and compatible with HTML5 and Web2.0 standards (http://Distributome.org). We demonstrate two types of applications of the probability Distributome resources: computational research and science education. The Distributome tools may be employed to address five complementary computational modeling applications (simulation, data-analysis and inference, model-fitting, examination of the analytical, mathematical and computational properties of specific probability distributions, and exploration of the inter-distributional relations). Many high school and college science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses may be enriched by the use of modern pedagogical approaches and technology-enhanced methods. The Distributome resources provide enhancements for blended STEM education by improving student motivation, augmenting the classical curriculum with interactive webapps, and overhauling the

Quantum correlations in terms of neutrino oscillation probabilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alok, Ashutosh Kumar, E-mail: akalok@iitj.ac.in [Indian Institute of Technology Jodhpur, Jodhpur 342011 (India); Banerjee, Subhashish, E-mail: subhashish@iitj.ac.in [Indian Institute of Technology Jodhpur, Jodhpur 342011 (India); Uma Sankar, S., E-mail: uma@phy.iitb.ac.in [Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400076 (India)

2016-08-15

Neutrino oscillations provide evidence for the mode entanglement of neutrino mass eigenstates in a given flavour eigenstate. Given this mode entanglement, it is pertinent to consider the relation between the oscillation probabilities and other quantum correlations. In this work, we show that all the well-known quantum correlations, such as the Bell's inequality, are directly related to the neutrino oscillation probabilities. The results of the neutrino oscillation experiments, which measure the neutrino survival probability to be less than unity, imply Bell's inequality violation.

Probability that a specific cancer and a specified radiation exposure are causally related

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Breitenstein, B.D.

1988-01-01

It is fundamental that a given cancer case cannot be attributed with absolute certainty to a prior ionizing radiation exposure, whatever the level of exposure. It is possible to estimate the probability of a causal relationship based on data and models that have been inferred from group statistics. Two types of information are needed to make these probability calculations: natural cancer incidence rates and risks of cancer induction from ionizing radiation. Cancer incidence rates for the United States are available in the report of the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute. Estimates of the risk of cancer induction from ionizing radiation have been published by the Advisory Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) of the National Academy of Sciences, the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), and the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Using the parameters discussed above, the probability of causation formulation estimates the probability that a person who develops a particular cancer after a known quantifiable radiation exposure has the cancer as a result of the exposure. In 1985, the National Institutes of Health, responding to a U.S. Congressional mandate, published radioepidemiologic tables using the probability-of-causation method

Fire occurrence prediction in the Mediterranean: Application to Southern France

Science.gov (United States)

Papakosta, Panagiota; Öster, Jan; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel

2013-04-01

The areas that extend in the Mediterranean basin have a long fire history. The climatic conditions of wet winters and long hot drying summers support seasonal fire events, mainly ignited by humans. Extended land fragmentation hinders fire spread, but seasonal winds (e.g. Mistral in South France or Meltemia in Greece) can drive fire events to become uncontrollable fires with severe impacts to humans and the environment [1]. Prediction models in these areas should incorporate both natural and anthropogenic factors. Several indices have been developed worldwide to express fire weather conditions. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is currently adapted by many countries in Europe due to the easily observable input weather parameters (temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, precipitation) and the easy-to-implement algorithms of the Canadian formulation describing fuel moisture relations [2],[3]. Human influence can be expressed directly by human presence (e.g. population density) or indirectly by proxy indicators (e.g. street density [4], land cover type). The random nature of fire occurrences and the uncertainties associated with the influencing factors motivate probabilistic prediction models. The aim of this study is to develop a prediction model of fire occurrence probability under natural and anthropogenic influence in Southern France and to compare it with earlier developed predictions in other Mediterranean areas [5]. Fire occurrence is modeled as a Poisson process. Two interpolation methods (Kriging and Inverse Distance Weighting) are used to interpolate daily weather observations from weather stations to a 1 km² spatial grid and their results are compared. Poisson regression estimates the parameters of the model and the resulting daily predictions are provided in terms of maps displaying fire occurrence rates. The model is applied to the regions Provence-Alpes-Côtes D'Azur und Languedoc-Roussillon in the South of France. Weather data are obtained from

Collapse susceptibility mapping in karstified gypsum terrain (Sivas basin - Turkey) by conditional probability, logistic regression, artificial neural network models

Science.gov (United States)

Yilmaz, Isik; Keskin, Inan; Marschalko, Marian; Bednarik, Martin

2010-05-01

This study compares the GIS based collapse susceptibility mapping methods such as; conditional probability (CP), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) applied in gypsum rock masses in Sivas basin (Turkey). Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was first constructed using GIS software. Collapse-related factors, directly or indirectly related to the causes of collapse occurrence, such as distance from faults, slope angle and aspect, topographical elevation, distance from drainage, topographic wetness index- TWI, stream power index- SPI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) by means of vegetation cover, distance from roads and settlements were used in the collapse susceptibility analyses. In the last stage of the analyses, collapse susceptibility maps were produced from CP, LR and ANN models, and they were then compared by means of their validations. Area Under Curve (AUC) values obtained from all three methodologies showed that the map obtained from ANN model looks like more accurate than the other models, and the results also showed that the artificial neural networks is a usefull tool in preparation of collapse susceptibility map and highly compatible with GIS operating features. Key words: Collapse; doline; susceptibility map; gypsum; GIS; conditional probability; logistic regression; artificial neural networks.

Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw = 6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Toda, S.; Stein, R.S.; Reasenberg, P.A.; Dieterich, J.H.; Yoshida, A.

1998-01-01

The Kobe earthquake struck at the edge of the densely populated Osaka-Kyoto corridor in southwest Japan. We investigate how the earthquake transferred stress to nearby faults, altering their proximity to failure and thus changing earthquake probabilities. We find that relative to the pre-Kobe seismicity, Kobe aftershocks were concentrated in regions of calculated Coulomb stress increase and less common in regions of stress decrease. We quantify this relationship by forming the spatial correlation between the seismicity rate change and the Coulomb stress change. The correlation is significant for stress changes greater than 0.2-1.0 bars (0.02-0.1 MPa), and the nonlinear dependence of seismicity rate change on stress change is compatible with a state- and rate-dependent formulation for earthquake occurrence. We extend this analysis to future mainshocks by resolving the stress changes on major faults within 100 km of Kobe and calculating the change in probability caused by these stress changes. Transient effects of the stress changes are incorporated by the state-dependent constitutive relation, which amplifies the permanent stress changes during the aftershock period. Earthquake probability framed in this manner is highly time-dependent, much more so than is assumed in current practice. Because the probabilities depend on several poorly known parameters of the major faults, we estimate uncertainties of the probabilities by Monte Carlo simulation. This enables us to include uncertainties on the elapsed time since the last earthquake, the repeat time and its variability, and the period of aftershock decay. We estimate that a calculated 3-bar (0.3-MPa) stress increase on the eastern section of the Arima-Takatsuki Tectonic Line (ATTL) near Kyoto causes fivefold increase in the 30-year probability of a subsequent large earthquake near Kyoto; a 2-bar (0.2-MPa) stress decrease on the western section of the ATTL results in a reduction in probability by a factor of 140 to

Occurrence of two different intragenic deletions in two male relatives affected with Duchenne muscular dystrophy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mostacciuolo, M.L.; Miorin, M.; Vitiello, L.; Rampazzo, A.; Fanin, M.; Angelini, C.; Danieli, G.A. [Univ. of Padua (Italy)

1994-03-01

The occurrence of 2 different intragenic deletions (exons 10-44 and exon 45, respectively) is reported in 2 male relatives affected with Duchenne muscular dystrophy, both showing the same haplotype for DNA markers not included in the deleted segment. The 2 different deletions seem to have occurred independently in the same X chromosome. This finding, together with other reports, suggests possibly an increased predisposition to mutations within the DMD locus in some families. Therefore, when dealing with prenatal diagnosis, the investigation on fetal DNA cannot be restricted only to the region in which a mutation was previously identified in the family. 14 refs., 1 fig.

The sensitivity of US wildfire occurrence to pre-season soil moisture conditions across ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, Daniel; Reager, John T.; Zajic, Brittany; Rousseau, Nick; Rodell, Matthew; Hinkley, Everett

2018-01-01

It is generally accepted that year-to-year variability in moisture conditions and drought are linked with increased wildfire occurrence. However, quantifying the sensitivity of wildfire to surface moisture state at seasonal lead-times has been challenging due to the absence of a long soil moisture record with the appropriate coverage and spatial resolution for continental-scale analysis. Here we apply model simulations of surface soil moisture that numerically assimilate observations from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission with the USDA Forest Service’s historical Fire-Occurrence Database over the contiguous United States. We quantify the relationships between pre-fire-season soil moisture and subsequent-year wildfire occurrence by land-cover type and produce annual probable wildfire occurrence and burned area maps at 0.25 degree resolution. Cross-validated results generally indicate a higher occurrence of smaller fires when months preceding fire season are wet, while larger fires are more frequent when soils are dry. This is consistent with the concept of increased fuel accumulation under wet conditions in the pre-season. These results demonstrate the fundamental strength of the relationship between soil moisture and fire activity at long lead-times and are indicative of that relationship’s utility for the future development of national-scale predictive capability.

Probability densities and the radon variable transformation theorem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramshaw, J.D.

1985-01-01

D. T. Gillespie recently derived a random variable transformation theorem relating to the joint probability densities of functionally dependent sets of random variables. The present author points out that the theorem can be derived as an immediate corollary of a simpler and more fundamental relation. In this relation the probability density is represented as a delta function averaged over an unspecified distribution of unspecified internal random variables. The random variable transformation is derived from this relation

Crossing seas and occurrence of rogue waves

Science.gov (United States)

Bitner-Gregersen, Elzbieta; Toffoli, Alessandro

2017-04-01

The study is addressing crossing wave systems which may lead to formation of rogue waves. Onorato et al. (2006, 2010) have shown using the Nonlinear Schr?dringer (NLS) equations that the modulational instability and rogue waves can be triggered by a peculiar form of directional sea state, where two identical, crossing, narrow-banded random wave systems interact with each other. Such results have been underpinned by numerical simulations of the Euler equations solved with a Higher Order Spectral Method (HOSM) and experimental observations (Toffoli et al., 2011). They substantiate a dependence of the angle between the mean directions of propagation of the two crossing wave systems, with a maximum rogue wave probability for angles of approximately 40 degrees. Such an unusual sea state of two almost identical wave systems (approximately the same significant wave height and mean frequency) with high steepness and different directions was observed during the accident to the cruise ship Louis Majesty (Cavaleri et al. 2012). Occurrence of wind sea and swell having almost the same spectral period and significant wave height and crossing at the angle 40o low and intermediate wave conditions. They have not been found in a location off coast of Australia and Nigeria. There are some indications that in the future climate we may expect an increase number of occurrence of rogue-prone crossing sea states in some ocean regions An adopted partitioning procedure of a wave spectrum will impact the results. References Bitner-Gregersen, E.M. and Toffoli, A., 2014. Probability of occurrence of rogue sea states and consequences for design of marine structures. Special Issue of Ocean Dynamics, ISSN 1616-7341, 64(10), DOI 10.1007/s10236-014-0753-2. Cavaleri, L., Bertotti, L., Torrisi, L. Bitner-Gregersen, E., Serio, M. and Onorato, M., 2012. Rogue Waves in Crossing Seas: The Louis Majesty accident. J. Geophysical Research, 117, C00J10, doi:10.1029/2012JC007923 Onorato, M., A. Osborne, A

Predictive occurrence models for coastal wetland plant communities: Delineating hydrologic response surfaces with multinomial logistic regression

Science.gov (United States)

Snedden, Gregg A.; Steyer, Gregory D.

2013-02-01

Understanding plant community zonation along estuarine stress gradients is critical for effective conservation and restoration of coastal wetland ecosystems. We related the presence of plant community types to estuarine hydrology at 173 sites across coastal Louisiana. Percent relative cover by species was assessed at each site near the end of the growing season in 2008, and hourly water level and salinity were recorded at each site Oct 2007-Sep 2008. Nine plant community types were delineated with k-means clustering, and indicator species were identified for each of the community types with indicator species analysis. An inverse relation between salinity and species diversity was observed. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) effectively segregated the sites across ordination space by community type, and indicated that salinity and tidal amplitude were both important drivers of vegetation composition. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the nine vegetation communities as a function of salinity and tidal amplitude, and probability surfaces obtained from the MLR model corroborated the CCA results. The weighted kappa statistic, calculated from the confusion matrix of predicted versus actual community types, was 0.7 and indicated good agreement between observed community types and model predictions. Our results suggest that models based on a few key hydrologic variables can be valuable tools for predicting vegetation community development when restoring and managing coastal wetlands.

Relationships among cloud occurrence frequency, overlap, and effective thickness derived from CALIPSO and CloudSat merged cloud vertical profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, Seiji; Sun-Mack, Sunny; Miller, Walter F.; Rose, Fred G.; Chen, Yan; Minnis, Patrick; Wielicki, Bruce A.

2010-01-01

A cloud frequency of occurrence matrix is generated using merged cloud vertical profiles derived from the satellite-borne Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and cloud profiling radar. The matrix contains vertical profiles of cloud occurrence frequency as a function of the uppermost cloud top. It is shown that the cloud fraction and uppermost cloud top vertical profiles can be related by a cloud overlap matrix when the correlation length of cloud occurrence, which is interpreted as an effective cloud thickness, is introduced. The underlying assumption in establishing the above relation is that cloud overlap approaches random overlap with increasing distance separating cloud layers and that the probability of deviating from random overlap decreases exponentially with distance. One month of Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) and CloudSat data (July 2006) support these assumptions, although the correlation length sometimes increases with separation distance when the cloud top height is large. The data also show that the correlation length depends on cloud top hight and the maximum occurs when the cloud top height is 8 to 10 km. The cloud correlation length is equivalent to the decorrelation distance introduced by Hogan and Illingworth (2000) when cloud fractions of both layers in a two-cloud layer system are the same. The simple relationships derived in this study can be used to estimate the top-of-atmosphere irradiance difference caused by cloud fraction, uppermost cloud top, and cloud thickness vertical profile differences.

Contributions to quantum probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fritz, Tobias

2010-01-01

Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a finite set can occur as the outcome

Continuation of probability density functions using a generalized Lyapunov approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baars, S., E-mail: s.baars@rug.nl [Johann Bernoulli Institute for Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 407, 9700 AK Groningen (Netherlands); Viebahn, J.P., E-mail: viebahn@cwi.nl [Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica (CWI), P.O. Box 94079, 1090 GB, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Mulder, T.E., E-mail: t.e.mulder@uu.nl [Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht (Netherlands); Kuehn, C., E-mail: ckuehn@ma.tum.de [Technical University of Munich, Faculty of Mathematics, Boltzmannstr. 3, 85748 Garching bei München (Germany); Wubs, F.W., E-mail: f.w.wubs@rug.nl [Johann Bernoulli Institute for Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 407, 9700 AK Groningen (Netherlands); Dijkstra, H.A., E-mail: h.a.dijkstra@uu.nl [Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht (Netherlands); School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY (United States)

2017-05-01

Techniques from numerical bifurcation theory are very useful to study transitions between steady fluid flow patterns and the instabilities involved. Here, we provide computational methodology to use parameter continuation in determining probability density functions of systems of stochastic partial differential equations near fixed points, under a small noise approximation. Key innovation is the efficient solution of a generalized Lyapunov equation using an iterative method involving low-rank approximations. We apply and illustrate the capabilities of the method using a problem in physical oceanography, i.e. the occurrence of multiple steady states of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.

Two-slit experiment: quantum and classical probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khrennikov, Andrei

2015-01-01

Inter-relation between quantum and classical probability models is one of the most fundamental problems of quantum foundations. Nowadays this problem also plays an important role in quantum technologies, in quantum cryptography and the theory of quantum random generators. In this letter, we compare the viewpoint of Richard Feynman that the behavior of quantum particles cannot be described by classical probability theory with the viewpoint that quantum–classical inter-relation is more complicated (cf, in particular, with the tomographic model of quantum mechanics developed in detail by Vladimir Man'ko). As a basic example, we consider the two-slit experiment, which played a crucial role in quantum foundational debates at the beginning of quantum mechanics (QM). In particular, its analysis led Niels Bohr to the formulation of the principle of complementarity. First, we demonstrate that in complete accordance with Feynman's viewpoint, the probabilities for the two-slit experiment have the non-Kolmogorovian structure, since they violate one of basic laws of classical probability theory, the law of total probability (the heart of the Bayesian analysis). However, then we show that these probabilities can be embedded in a natural way into the classical (Kolmogorov, 1933) probability model. To do this, one has to take into account the randomness of selection of different experimental contexts, the joint consideration of which led Feynman to a conclusion about the non-classicality of quantum probability. We compare this embedding of non-Kolmogorovian quantum probabilities into the Kolmogorov model with well-known embeddings of non-Euclidean geometries into Euclidean space (e.g., the Poincaré disk model for the Lobachvesky plane). (paper)

INTERACTIVE VISUALIZATION OF PROBABILITY AND CUMULATIVE DENSITY FUNCTIONS

KAUST Repository

Potter, Kristin; Kirby, Robert Michael; Xiu, Dongbin; Johnson, Chris R.

2012-01-01

The probability density function (PDF), and its corresponding cumulative density function (CDF), provide direct statistical insight into the characterization of a random process or field. Typically displayed as a histogram, one can infer probabilities of the occurrence of particular events. When examining a field over some two-dimensional domain in which at each point a PDF of the function values is available, it is challenging to assess the global (stochastic) features present within the field. In this paper, we present a visualization system that allows the user to examine two-dimensional data sets in which PDF (or CDF) information is available at any position within the domain. The tool provides a contour display showing the normed difference between the PDFs and an ansatz PDF selected by the user and, furthermore, allows the user to interactively examine the PDF at any particular position. Canonical examples of the tool are provided to help guide the reader into the mapping of stochastic information to visual cues along with a description of the use of the tool for examining data generated from an uncertainty quantification exercise accomplished within the field of electrophysiology.

Packaging and transportation occurrence reporting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Needels, T.S.

1996-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Order 231.1 calls for the maintenance of a database for all unclassified occurrence reports (ORs). ORS provide DOE with notice of incidents and accidents that endanger the public, workers, or DOE facility operations. To fulfill this policy, the DOE Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS) was established to require DOE facilities to report and process information concerning such events. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) provides DOE with data and analysis of occurrence related to packaging and transportation (P and T) safety. This program produces annual reports, lessons learned bulletins, and information for the packaging and transportation home page on the Internet. The analysis and reports provided can be used as a tool for oversight and a means for DOE sites to be proactive and anticipate problems through shared knowledge and lessons learned. To illustrate, some observable trends based on 3 years of the program are given. In summary, this program shows potential problem areas that need correcting, and possible breakdowns of safety

Modulation of cognitive control levels via manipulation of saccade trial-type probability assessed with event-related BOLD fMRI.

Science.gov (United States)

Pierce, Jordan E; McDowell, Jennifer E

2016-02-01

Cognitive control supports flexible behavior adapted to meet current goals and can be modeled through investigation of saccade tasks with varying cognitive demands. Basic prosaccades (rapid glances toward a newly appearing stimulus) are supported by neural circuitry, including occipital and posterior parietal cortex, frontal and supplementary eye fields, and basal ganglia. These trials can be contrasted with complex antisaccades (glances toward the mirror image location of a stimulus), which are characterized by greater functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signal in the aforementioned regions and recruitment of additional regions such as dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. The current study manipulated the cognitive demands of these saccade tasks by presenting three rapid event-related runs of mixed saccades with a varying probability of antisaccade vs. prosaccade trials (25, 50, or 75%). Behavioral results showed an effect of trial-type probability on reaction time, with slower responses in runs with a high antisaccade probability. Imaging results exhibited an effect of probability in bilateral pre- and postcentral gyrus, bilateral superior temporal gyrus, and medial frontal gyrus. Additionally, the interaction between saccade trial type and probability revealed a strong probability effect for prosaccade trials, showing a linear increase in activation parallel to antisaccade probability in bilateral temporal/occipital, posterior parietal, medial frontal, and lateral prefrontal cortex. In contrast, antisaccade trials showed elevated activation across all runs. Overall, this study demonstrated that improbable performance of a typically simple prosaccade task led to augmented BOLD signal to support changing cognitive control demands, resulting in activation levels similar to the more complex antisaccade task. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

The transition probabilities of the reciprocity model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Snijders, T.A.B.

1999-01-01

The reciprocity model is a continuous-time Markov chain model used for modeling longitudinal network data. A new explicit expression is derived for its transition probability matrix. This expression can be checked relatively easily. Some properties of the transition probabilities are given, as well

Occurrence of Wounds in Nigerian Horses.

Science.gov (United States)

Agina, Onyinyechukwu A; Ihedioha, John I

2017-01-01

This study investigated the occurrence of wounds in Nigerian horses. The study population was 1,621 horses sold at the Obollo Afor horse lairage in Enugu State, Nigeria, during a 6-month period: 3 months of dry season and 3 months of rainy season (February-April and June-August 2012). A total of 207 horses were systematically sampled and subjected to a comprehensive physical examination. Those with wounds were marked, recorded, and clinically examined. Of the 207 horses sampled, 21 (10.1%) had wounds. The body distribution of the wounds was 9.5% head, 9.5% forelimbs, 19.1% hind limbs, 4.8% tail, 14.3% flank, 9.5% loin, 19.1% hip, 9.5% barrel, and 4.8% croup. The occurrence of the wounds was not significantly associated with sex or season, but the occurrence in adults was significantly (p horses. It was concluded that the occurrence of wounds is relatively high (10.1%), and mainly the hind limbs, hip, and flank of adult horses are affected. It was recommended that horse guardians and handlers should be properly educated on the care of horses.

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in children is found to be related to the occurrence of ADHD in siblings and the male gender, but not to birth order, when compared to healthy controls.

Science.gov (United States)

Keshavarzi, Zahra; Bajoghli, Hafez; Mohamadi, Mohammad Reza; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith; Brand, Serge

2014-10-01

The aim of the present study was to explore the extent to which the prevalence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in childhood is associated with birth order and gender, and the prevalence of ADHD and mental retardation (MR) in siblings, as compared to healthy controls. Methods. Data from 200 children diagnosed with ADHD (mean age: 11.13 years; 10.5% females) were compared to data from 200 healthy controls (mean age: 11.0 years; 27.5% females). The data were related to symptoms of ADHD, birth order, gender, family size, and the occurrence of ADHD and MR in siblings. Compared to controls, the occurrence of ADHD was found to be related to the male gender and to the occurrence of ADHD-related symptoms in siblings (odds ratio: 13.50). Birth order and MR were not associated with the occurrence of ADHD and ADHD-related symptoms. ADHD- related symptoms increased if a further sibling also suffered from ADHD. Conclusions. Among a sample of Iranian children suffering from ADHD, the ADHD and ADHD-related symptoms in childhood were found to be related to the male gender and to the occurrence of ADHD in siblings. Moreover, birth order was found to be unrelated. The fact that symptoms of ADHD-related symptoms increased if a further sibling was suffering from ADHD, and decreased if a further sibling was suffering from MR, is intriguing and needs further explanation.

Information selection and signal probability in multisource monitoring under the influence of centrally active drugs : Phentermine versus pentobarbital

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Volkerts, E.R; van Laar, M.W; Verbaten, M.N; Mulder, G.; Maes, R.A A

1996-01-01

The present study is concerned with the relationship between drug-induced arousal shifts and sampling [(monitoring)] behaviour in a three-source task with an a priori signal occurrence probability of 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1. The multisource monitoring task and procedure was adopted from Hockey (1973) who

Failure probability estimate of type 304 stainless steel piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daugherty, W.L.; Awadalla, N.G.; Sindelar, R.L.; Mehta, H.S.; Ranganath, S.

1989-01-01

The primary source of in-service degradation of the SRS production reactor process water piping is intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC). IGSCC has occurred in a limited number of weld heat affected zones, areas known to be susceptible to IGSCC. A model has been developed to combine crack growth rates, crack size distributions, in-service examination reliability estimates and other considerations to estimate the pipe large-break frequency. This frequency estimates the probability that an IGSCC crack will initiate, escape detection by ultrasonic (UT) examination, and grow to instability prior to extending through-wall and being detected by the sensitive leak detection system. These events are combined as the product of four factors: (1) the probability that a given weld heat affected zone contains IGSCC; (2) the conditional probability, given the presence of IGSCC, that the cracking will escape detection during UT examination; (3) the conditional probability, given a crack escapes detection by UT, that it will not grow through-wall and be detected by leakage; (4) the conditional probability, given a crack is not detected by leakage, that it grows to instability prior to the next UT exam. These four factors estimate the occurrence of several conditions that must coexist in order for a crack to lead to a large break of the process water piping. When evaluated for the SRS production reactors, they produce an extremely low break frequency. The objective of this paper is to present the assumptions, methodology, results and conclusions of a probabilistic evaluation for the direct failure of the primary coolant piping resulting from normal operation and seismic loads. This evaluation was performed to support the ongoing PRA effort and to complement deterministic analyses addressing the credibility of a double-ended guillotine break

Geospatial Analysis Application to Forecast Wildfire Occurrences in South Carolina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen L. Sperry

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Wildfire occurrence and intensity have increased over the last few decades and, at times, have been national news. Wildfire occurrence is somewhat predictable based on physical factors like meteorological conditions, fuel loads, and vegetation dynamics. Socioeconomic factors have been not been widely used in wildfire occurrence models. We used a geospatial (or geographical information system analysis approach to identify socioeconomic variables that contribute to wildfire occurrence. Key variables considered were population change, population density, poverty rate, educational level, geographic mobility, and road density (transportation network. Hot spot analysis was the primary research tool. Wildfire occurrence seemed to be positively related to low population densities, low levels of population change, high poverty rate, low educational attainment level, and low road density. Obviously, some of these variables are correlated and this is a complex problem. However, socioeconomic variables appeared to contribute to wildfire occurrence and should be considered in development of wildfire occurrence forecasting models.

p-adic probability interpretation of Bell's inequality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khrennikov, A.

1995-01-01

We study the violation of Bell's inequality using a p-adic generalization of the theory of probability. p-adic probability is introduced as a limit of relative frequencies but this limit exists with respect to a p-adic metric. In particular, negative probability distributions are well defined on the basis of the frequency definition. This new type of stochastics can be used to describe hidden-variables distributions of some quantum models. If the hidden variables have a p-adic probability distribution, Bell's inequality is not valid and it is not necessary to discuss the experimental violations of this inequality. ((orig.))

Relative probabilities of the uranium isotopes for thorium x-ray emission and fluorescence of uranium x-rays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parker, J.L.

1991-01-01

Both thorium x-rays from decaying uranium isotopes and self-fluoresced uranium x-rays are prominent in high-resolution gamma-ray spectra of uranium-bearing materials. Useful application of the information carried by those x-rays has been curtailed because the probabilities of the uranium isotopes for thorium x-ray emission and for uranium x-ray fluorescence have not been known. By analyzing enrichment-meter geometry spectra from uranium oxide standards whose enrichments ranged from 0.7% to 91%, relative values, primarily, have been obtained for the probabilities of both processes. Thorium x-ray emission is very heavily dominated by 235 U. In all ordinarily occurring uranium isotopic distributions, thorium x-rays may be used as a valid 235 U signature. The probability for a thorium K α1 x-ray to be emitted in the decay of a 235 U atom is 0.048 ±0.002. In infinitely thick uranium oxide materials, the relative ratios of effectiveness for self-fluorescence, on a per unit mass basis, are approximately 234 U : 235 U : 236 U : 238 U = 1.13 : 1.00 : 0.52 : 0.028. on a per decay basis, the approximate ratios are 0.00039 : 1.00 : 0.017 : 0.18. These results imply that, contrary to what has often been stated, gamma rays are far more important than alpha particles in the self-fluorescence of uranium. Because of the importance of gamma-ray self-fluorescence, the uranium x-ray yield will be somewhat influenced by the size, shape, and composition of the materials. 4 refs., 1 fig

Wigner function and the probability representation of quantum states

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Man’ko Margarita A.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The relation of theWigner function with the fair probability distribution called tomographic distribution or quantum tomogram associated with the quantum state is reviewed. The connection of the tomographic picture of quantum mechanics with the integral Radon transform of the Wigner quasidistribution is discussed. The Wigner–Moyal equation for the Wigner function is presented in the form of kinetic equation for the tomographic probability distribution both in quantum mechanics and in the classical limit of the Liouville equation. The calculation of moments of physical observables in terms of integrals with the state tomographic probability distributions is constructed having a standard form of averaging in the probability theory. New uncertainty relations for the position and momentum are written in terms of optical tomograms suitable for directexperimental check. Some recent experiments on checking the uncertainty relations including the entropic uncertainty relations are discussed.

Environmental occurrences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Black, D.G.

1995-06-01

This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the onsite and offsite releases of radioactive and regulated materials. The specific agencies notified of the releases depended on the type, amount, and location of the individual occurrences. The more significant of these off-normal environmental occurrences are summarized in this section.

Environmental occurrences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Black, D.G.

1995-01-01

This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the onsite and offsite releases of radioactive and regulated materials. The specific agencies notified of the releases depended on the type, amount, and location of the individual occurrences. The more significant of these off-normal environmental occurrences are summarized in this section

Mapping fire probability and severity in a Mediterranean area using different weather and fuel moisture scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Arca, B.; Salis, M.; Bacciu, V.; Duce, P.; Pellizzaro, G.; Ventura, A.; Spano, D.

2009-04-01

Although in many countries lightning is the main cause of ignition, in the Mediterranean Basin the forest fires are predominantly ignited by arson, or by human negligence. The fire season peaks coincide with extreme weather conditions (mainly strong winds, hot temperatures, low atmospheric water vapour content) and high tourist presence. Many works reported that in the Mediterranean Basin the projected impacts of climate change will cause greater weather variability and extreme weather conditions, with drier and hotter summers and heat waves. At long-term scale, climate changes could affect the fuel load and the dead/live fuel ratio, and therefore could change the vegetation flammability. At short-time scale, the increase of extreme weather events could directly affect fuel water status, and it could increase large fire occurrence. In this context, detecting the areas characterized by both high probability of large fire occurrence and high fire severity could represent an important component of the fire management planning. In this work we compared several fire probability and severity maps (fire occurrence, rate of spread, fireline intensity, flame length) obtained for a study area located in North Sardinia, Italy, using FlamMap simulator (USDA Forest Service, Missoula). FlamMap computes the potential fire behaviour characteristics over a defined landscape for given weather, wind and fuel moisture data. Different weather and fuel moisture scenarios were tested to predict the potential impact of climate changes on fire parameters. The study area, characterized by a mosaic of urban areas, protected areas, and other areas subject to anthropogenic disturbances, is mainly composed by fire-prone Mediterranean maquis. The input themes needed to run FlamMap were input as grid of 10 meters; the wind data, obtained using a computational fluid-dynamic model, were inserted as gridded file, with a resolution of 50 m. The analysis revealed high fire probability and severity in

Prospect evaluation as a function of numeracy and probability denominator.

Science.gov (United States)

Millroth, Philip; Juslin, Peter

2015-05-01

This study examines how numeracy and probability denominator (a direct-ratio probability, a relative frequency with denominator 100, a relative frequency with denominator 10,000) affect the evaluation of prospects in an expected-value based pricing task. We expected that numeracy would affect the results due to differences in the linearity of number perception and the susceptibility to denominator neglect with different probability formats. An analysis with functional measurement verified that participants integrated value and probability into an expected value. However, a significant interaction between numeracy and probability format and subsequent analyses of the parameters of cumulative prospect theory showed that the manipulation of probability denominator changed participants' psychophysical response to probability and value. Standard methods in decision research may thus confound people's genuine risk attitude with their numerical capacities and the probability format used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Selected safety-related occurrences reported in May and June 1977

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Casto, W.R.

1977-01-01

The following occurrences are reviewed because of their uniqueness and/or general interest: (1) short reactor periods have occurred at Quad Cities 1 during shutdown margin tests; (2) loss of instrument air caused damage to reactor coolant-pump seals at a pressurized-water reactor (PWR); (3) a power-distribution anomaly occurred because of a failure of burnable poison rods at St. Lucie 1; (4) short reactor periods have occurred at some boiling-water reactors (BWRs) during startups at peak xenon; and (5) surging in the feedwater flow caused pipe vibrations at Beaver Valley 1

Contributions to quantum probability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fritz, Tobias

2010-06-25

Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a

Encounter Probability of Individual Wave Height

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Z.; Burcharth, H. F.

1998-01-01

wave height corresponding to a certain exceedence probability within a structure lifetime (encounter probability), based on the statistical analysis of long-term extreme significant wave height. Then the design individual wave height is calculated as the expected maximum individual wave height...... associated with the design significant wave height, with the assumption that the individual wave heights follow the Rayleigh distribution. However, the exceedence probability of such a design individual wave height within the structure lifetime is unknown. The paper presents a method for the determination...... of the design individual wave height corresponding to an exceedence probability within the structure lifetime, given the long-term extreme significant wave height. The method can also be applied for estimation of the number of relatively large waves for fatigue analysis of constructions....

Association of genetic variants of the incretin-related genes with quantitative traits and occurrence of type 2 diabetes in Japanese

OpenAIRE

Mayumi Enya; Yukio Horikawa; Katsumi Iizuka; Jun Takeda

2014-01-01

Background: None of the high frequency variants of the incretin-related genes has been found by genome-wide association study (GWAS) for association with occurrence of type 2 diabetes in Japanese. However, low frequency and rare and/or high frequency variants affecting glucose metabolic traits remain to be investigated. Method: We screened all exons of the incretin-related genes (GCG, GLP1R, DPP4, PCSK1, GIP, and GIPR) in 96 patients with type 2 diabetes and investigated for association of...

Fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis to propagate and quantify epistemic uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purba, Julwan Hendry; Sony Tjahyani, D.T.; Ekariansyah, Andi Sofrany; Tjahjono, Hendro

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis is to evaluate epistemic uncertainty in fuzzy fault tree analysis. • Fuzzy probabilities represent likelihood occurrences of all events in a fault tree. • A fuzzy multiplication rule quantifies epistemic uncertainty of minimal cut sets. • A fuzzy complement rule estimate epistemic uncertainty of the top event. • The proposed FPFTA has successfully evaluated the U.S. Combustion Engineering RPS. - Abstract: A number of fuzzy fault tree analysis approaches, which integrate fuzzy concepts into the quantitative phase of conventional fault tree analysis, have been proposed to study reliabilities of engineering systems. Those new approaches apply expert judgments to overcome the limitation of the conventional fault tree analysis when basic events do not have probability distributions. Since expert judgments might come with epistemic uncertainty, it is important to quantify the overall uncertainties of the fuzzy fault tree analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is commonly used to quantify the overall uncertainties of conventional fault tree analysis. However, since Monte Carlo simulation is based on probability distribution, this technique is not appropriate for fuzzy fault tree analysis, which is based on fuzzy probabilities. The objective of this study is to develop a fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis to overcome the limitation of fuzzy fault tree analysis. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach, a case study is performed and its results are then compared to the results analyzed by a conventional fault tree analysis. The results confirm that the proposed fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis is feasible to propagate and quantify epistemic uncertainties in fault tree analysis

Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassinelli, G.

1979-01-01

The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)

Report to Congress on abnormal occurrences, October-December 1981. Quarterly report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-05-01

During the report period, there were two abnormal occurrences at the nuclear power plants licensed to operate. One involved a generic concern pertaining to blockage of coolant flow to safety-related systems. The other involved seismic design errors at Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant with subsequent suspension of the fuel load and low power operating license for Unit 1. There were no abnormal occurrences for the other NRC licensees during the report period; the Agreement States reported no abnormal occurrences to the NRC. The report also contains information updating a previously reported abnormal occurrence

Sexual inactivity and occurrence of STIs in relation to weight status in women

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gunge, Vibeke B; Juul, Kirsten E; van den Brule, Adriaan Jc

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine sexual inactivity and occurrence of selected sexually transmitted infections in relation to body mass index. We used data from two large Danish population-based cross-sectional studies conducted in 1991-1995 (HPV study: 6869 women, aged 22-32 years) and in 2004......-2005 (Liva study: 19,484 women, aged 18-45 years). Data were collected using a structured interview and measured weight, height, high-risk human papillomavirus DNA, Chlamydia DNA for the HPV study and a structured questionnaire for the Liva study. Overweight and obese women were more likely to have had...... no lifetime sexual partner or no sexual partner in the last year, e.g., obese women had a threefold (95 percent CI: 1.95-5.04) odds ratio of having had no sexual partner in the last year compared to normal weight women. Additionally, overweight and obese women had a lower likelihood of genital warts and high...

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

Science.gov (United States)

Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

2016-01-01

In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

Diurnal Human Activity and Introduced Species Affect Occurrence of Carnivores in a Human-Dominated Landscape.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dario Moreira-Arce

Full Text Available Diurnal human activity and domestic dogs in agro-forestry mosaics should theoretically modify the diurnal habitat use patterns of native carnivores, with these effects being scale-dependent. We combined intensive camera trapping data with Bayesian occurrence probability models to evaluate both diurnal and nocturnal patterns of space use by carnivores in a mosaic of land-use types in southern Chile. A total of eight carnivores species were recorded, including human-introduced dogs. During the day the most frequently detected species were the culpeo fox and the cougar. Conversely, during the night, the kodkod and chilla fox were the most detected species. The best supported models showed that native carnivores responded differently to landscape attributes and dogs depending on both the time of day as well as the spatial scale of landscape attributes. The positive effect of native forest cover at 250 m and 500 m radius buffers was stronger during the night for the Darwin's fox and cougar. Road density at 250 m scale negatively affected the diurnal occurrence of Darwin´s fox, whereas at 500 m scale roads had a stronger negative effect on the diurnal occurrence of Darwin´s foxes and cougars. A positive effect of road density on dog occurrence was evidenced during both night and day. Patch size had a positive effect on cougar occurrence during night whereas it affected negatively the occurrence of culpeo foxes and skunks during day. Dog occurrence had a negative effect on Darwin's fox occurrence during day-time and night-time, whereas its negative effect on the occurrence of cougar was evidenced only during day-time. Carnivore occurrences were not influenced by the proximity to a conservation area. Our results provided support for the hypothesis that diurnal changes to carnivore occurrence were associated with human and dog activity. Landscape planning in our study area should be focused in reducing both the levels of diurnal human activity in

Diurnal Human Activity and Introduced Species Affect Occurrence of Carnivores in a Human-Dominated Landscape.

Science.gov (United States)

Moreira-Arce, Dario; Vergara, Pablo M; Boutin, Stan

2015-01-01

Diurnal human activity and domestic dogs in agro-forestry mosaics should theoretically modify the diurnal habitat use patterns of native carnivores, with these effects being scale-dependent. We combined intensive camera trapping data with Bayesian occurrence probability models to evaluate both diurnal and nocturnal patterns of space use by carnivores in a mosaic of land-use types in southern Chile. A total of eight carnivores species were recorded, including human-introduced dogs. During the day the most frequently detected species were the culpeo fox and the cougar. Conversely, during the night, the kodkod and chilla fox were the most detected species. The best supported models showed that native carnivores responded differently to landscape attributes and dogs depending on both the time of day as well as the spatial scale of landscape attributes. The positive effect of native forest cover at 250 m and 500 m radius buffers was stronger during the night for the Darwin's fox and cougar. Road density at 250 m scale negatively affected the diurnal occurrence of Darwin´s fox, whereas at 500 m scale roads had a stronger negative effect on the diurnal occurrence of Darwin´s foxes and cougars. A positive effect of road density on dog occurrence was evidenced during both night and day. Patch size had a positive effect on cougar occurrence during night whereas it affected negatively the occurrence of culpeo foxes and skunks during day. Dog occurrence had a negative effect on Darwin's fox occurrence during day-time and night-time, whereas its negative effect on the occurrence of cougar was evidenced only during day-time. Carnivore occurrences were not influenced by the proximity to a conservation area. Our results provided support for the hypothesis that diurnal changes to carnivore occurrence were associated with human and dog activity. Landscape planning in our study area should be focused in reducing both the levels of diurnal human activity in native forest remnants

Predictive occurrence models for coastal wetland plant communities: delineating hydrologic response surfaces with multinomial logistic regression

Science.gov (United States)

Snedden, Gregg A.; Steyer, Gregory D.

2013-01-01

Understanding plant community zonation along estuarine stress gradients is critical for effective conservation and restoration of coastal wetland ecosystems. We related the presence of plant community types to estuarine hydrology at 173 sites across coastal Louisiana. Percent relative cover by species was assessed at each site near the end of the growing season in 2008, and hourly water level and salinity were recorded at each site Oct 2007–Sep 2008. Nine plant community types were delineated with k-means clustering, and indicator species were identified for each of the community types with indicator species analysis. An inverse relation between salinity and species diversity was observed. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) effectively segregated the sites across ordination space by community type, and indicated that salinity and tidal amplitude were both important drivers of vegetation composition. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the nine vegetation communities as a function of salinity and tidal amplitude, and probability surfaces obtained from the MLR model corroborated the CCA results. The weighted kappa statistic, calculated from the confusion matrix of predicted versus actual community types, was 0.7 and indicated good agreement between observed community types and model predictions. Our results suggest that models based on a few key hydrologic variables can be valuable tools for predicting vegetation community development when restoring and managing coastal wetlands.

COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.

1979-01-01

1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions

On Probability Leakage

OpenAIRE

Briggs, William M.

2012-01-01

The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.

Computation of Probabilities in Causal Models of History of Science

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Osvaldo Pessoa Jr.

2006-12-01

Full Text Available : The aim of this paper is to investigate the ascription of probabilities in a causal model of an episode in the history of science. The aim of such a quantitative approach is to allow the implementation of the causal model in a computer, to run simulations. As an example, we look at the beginning of the science of magnetism, “explaining” — in a probabilistic way, in terms of a single causal model — why the field advanced in China but not in Europe (the difference is due to different prior probabilities of certain cultural manifestations. Given the number of years between the occurrences of two causally connected advances X and Y, one proposes a criterion for stipulating the value pY=X of the conditional probability of an advance Y occurring, given X. Next, one must assume a specific form for the cumulative probability function pY=X(t, which we take to be the time integral of an exponential distribution function, as is done in physics of radioactive decay. Rules for calculating the cumulative functions for more than two events are mentioned, involving composition, disjunction and conjunction of causes. We also consider the problems involved in supposing that the appearance of events in time follows an exponential distribution, which are a consequence of the fact that a composition of causes does not follow an exponential distribution, but a “hypoexponential” one. We suggest that a gamma distribution function might more adequately represent the appearance of advances.

Absolute transition probabilities for 559 strong lines of neutral cerium

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Curry, J J, E-mail: jjcurry@nist.go [National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD 20899-8422 (United States)

2009-07-07

Absolute radiative transition probabilities are reported for 559 strong lines of neutral cerium covering the wavelength range 340-880 nm. These transition probabilities are obtained by scaling published relative line intensities (Meggers et al 1975 Tables of Spectral Line Intensities (National Bureau of Standards Monograph 145)) with a smaller set of published absolute transition probabilities (Bisson et al 1991 J. Opt. Soc. Am. B 8 1545). All 559 new values are for lines for which transition probabilities have not previously been available. The estimated relative random uncertainty of the new data is +-35% for nearly all lines.

Disability occurrence and proximity to death

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Kunst, Anton E.

2010-01-01

Purpose. This paper aims to assess whether disability occurrence is related more strongly to proximity to death than to age. Method. Self reported disability and vital status were available from six annual waves and a subsequent 12-year mortality follow-up of the Dutch GLOBE longitudinal study.

Delay or probability discounting in a model of impulsive behavior: effect of alcohol.

Science.gov (United States)

Richards, J B; Zhang, L; Mitchell, S H; de Wit, H

1999-01-01

Little is known about the acute effects of drugs of abuse on impulsivity and self-control. In this study, impulsivity was assessed in humans using a computer task that measured delay and probability discounting. Discounting describes how much the value of a reward (or punisher) is decreased when its occurrence is either delayed or uncertain. Twenty-four healthy adult volunteers ingested a moderate dose of ethanol (0.5 or 0.8 g/kg ethanol: n = 12 at each dose) or placebo before completing the discounting task. In the task the participants were given a series of choices between a small, immediate, certain amount of money and $10 that was either delayed (0, 2, 30, 180, or 365 days) or probabilistic (i.e., certainty of receipt was 1.0, .9, .75, .5, or .25). The point at which each individual was indifferent between the smaller immediate or certain reward and the $10 delayed or probabilistic reward was identified using an adjusting-amount procedure. The results indicated that (a) delay and probability discounting were well described by a hyperbolic function; (b) delay and probability discounting were positively correlated within subjects; (c) delay and probability discounting were moderately correlated with personality measures of impulsivity; and (d) alcohol had no effect on discounting. PMID:10220927

Linear discriminant analysis of character sequences using occurrences of words

KAUST Repository

Dutta, Subhajit; Chaudhuri, Probal; Ghosh, Anil

2014-01-01

Classification of character sequences, where the characters come from a finite set, arises in disciplines such as molecular biology and computer science. For discriminant analysis of such character sequences, the Bayes classifier based on Markov models turns out to have class boundaries defined by linear functions of occurrences of words in the sequences. It is shown that for such classifiers based on Markov models with unknown orders, if the orders are estimated from the data using cross-validation, the resulting classifier has Bayes risk consistency under suitable conditions. Even when Markov models are not valid for the data, we develop methods for constructing classifiers based on linear functions of occurrences of words, where the word length is chosen by cross-validation. Such linear classifiers are constructed using ideas of support vector machines, regression depth, and distance weighted discrimination. We show that classifiers with linear class boundaries have certain optimal properties in terms of their asymptotic misclassification probabilities. The performance of these classifiers is demonstrated in various simulated and benchmark data sets.

Linear discriminant analysis of character sequences using occurrences of words

KAUST Repository

Dutta, Subhajit

2014-02-01

Classification of character sequences, where the characters come from a finite set, arises in disciplines such as molecular biology and computer science. For discriminant analysis of such character sequences, the Bayes classifier based on Markov models turns out to have class boundaries defined by linear functions of occurrences of words in the sequences. It is shown that for such classifiers based on Markov models with unknown orders, if the orders are estimated from the data using cross-validation, the resulting classifier has Bayes risk consistency under suitable conditions. Even when Markov models are not valid for the data, we develop methods for constructing classifiers based on linear functions of occurrences of words, where the word length is chosen by cross-validation. Such linear classifiers are constructed using ideas of support vector machines, regression depth, and distance weighted discrimination. We show that classifiers with linear class boundaries have certain optimal properties in terms of their asymptotic misclassification probabilities. The performance of these classifiers is demonstrated in various simulated and benchmark data sets.

Spatial analysis of geologic and hydrologic features relating to sinkhole occurrence in Jefferson County, West Virginia

Science.gov (United States)

Doctor, Daniel H.; Doctor, Katarina Z.

2012-01-01

In this study the influence of geologic features related to sinkhole susceptibility was analyzed and the results were mapped for the region of Jefferson County, West Virginia. A model of sinkhole density was constructed using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) that estimated the relations among discrete geologic or hydrologic features and sinkhole density at each sinkhole location. Nine conditioning factors on sinkhole occurrence were considered as independent variables: distance to faults, fold axes, fracture traces oriented along bedrock strike, fracture traces oriented across bedrock strike, ponds, streams, springs, quarries, and interpolated depth to groundwater. GWR model parameter estimates for each variable were evaluated for significance, and the results were mapped. The results provide visual insight into the influence of these variables on localized sinkhole density, and can be used to provide an objective means of weighting conditioning factors in models of sinkhole susceptibility or hazard risk.

Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, R.L.

1994-01-01

Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising

The Time Course of the Probability of Transition Into and Out of REM Sleep

Science.gov (United States)

Bassi, Alejandro; Vivaldi, Ennio A.; Ocampo-Garcés, Adrián

2009-01-01

Study Objectives: A model of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep expression is proposed that assumes underlying regulatory mechanisms operating as inhomogenous Poisson processes, the overt results of which are the transitions into and out of REM sleep. Design: Based on spontaneously occurring REM sleep episodes (“Episode”) and intervals without REM sleep (“Interval”), 3 variables are defined and evaluated over discrete 15-second epochs using a nonlinear logistic regression method: “Propensity” is the instantaneous rate of into-REM transition occurrence throughout an Interval, “Volatility” is the instantaneous rate of out-of-REM transition occurrence throughout an Episode, and “Opportunity” is the probability of being in non-REM (NREM) sleep at a given time throughout an Interval, a requisite for transition. Setting: 12:12 light:dark cycle, isolated boxes. Participants: Sixteen male Sprague-Dawley rats Interventions: None. Spontaneous sleep cycles. Measurements and Results: The highest levels of volatility and propensity occur, respectively, at the very beginning of Episodes and Intervals. The new condition stabilizes rapidly, and variables reach nadirs at minute 1.25 and 2.50, respectively. Afterward, volatility increases markedly, reaching values close to the initial level. Propensity increases moderately, the increment being stronger through NREM sleep bouts occurring at the end of long Intervals. Short-term homeostasis is evidenced by longer REM sleep episodes lowering propensity in the following Interval. Conclusions: The stabilization after transitions into Episodes or Intervals and the destabilization after remaining for some time in either condition may be described as resulting from continuous processes building up during Episodes and Intervals. These processes underlie the overt occurrence of transitions. Citation: Bassi A; Vivaldi EA; Ocampo-Garcées A. The time course of the probability of transition into and out of REM sleep. SLEEP 2009

An investigation of student understanding of classical ideas related to quantum mechanics: Potential energy diagrams and spatial probability density

Science.gov (United States)

Stephanik, Brian Michael

This dissertation describes the results of two related investigations into introductory student understanding of ideas from classical physics that are key elements of quantum mechanics. One investigation probes the extent to which students are able to interpret and apply potential energy diagrams (i.e., graphs of potential energy versus position). The other probes the extent to which students are able to reason classically about probability and spatial probability density. The results of these investigations revealed significant conceptual and reasoning difficulties that students encounter with these topics. The findings guided the design of instructional materials to address the major problems. Results from post-instructional assessments are presented that illustrate the impact of the curricula on student learning.

Integration of geophysical datasets by a conjoint probability tomography approach: application to Italian active volcanic areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Patella

2008-06-01

Full Text Available We expand the theory of probability tomography to the integration of different geophysical datasets. The aim of the new method is to improve the information quality using a conjoint occurrence probability function addressed to highlight the existence of common sources of anomalies. The new method is tested on gravity, magnetic and self-potential datasets collected in the volcanic area of Mt. Vesuvius (Naples, and on gravity and dipole geoelectrical datasets collected in the volcanic area of Mt. Etna (Sicily. The application demonstrates that, from a probabilistic point of view, the integrated analysis can delineate the signature of some important volcanic targets better than the analysis of the tomographic image of each dataset considered separately.

Appearance probability of certain precipitation quantities and temperature sums > 100S during the growing period

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dimitrovska, Blaga; Dimitrovski, Zoran; Ristevski, Pece

2004-01-01

In this paper are given probabilities for determined precipitation amounts existence and temperature sums >10 o C (in percentages) for fifteen measure stations in the Republic of Macedonia for the vegetative period of the year (from 1 st of April until 31st of October) and for period 1951-2000. Using the precipitation amounts and sums of temperatures >10 o C for the vegetative period of the year we, calculated hydro thermic coefficient (HTC) by Seljaninov for each year of the period 1951-2000. From the HTC values we categorized the drought for each measure station using criteria by S.Otorepec. Calculating the probabilities for determined precipitation amounts existence and temperature summes > 10 o C occurrence is very important for water balance calculation, irrigation norms etc.(Author)

Transitional Probabilities Are Prioritized over Stimulus/Pattern Probabilities in Auditory Deviance Detection: Memory Basis for Predictive Sound Processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Mittag, Maria; Takegata, Rika; Winkler, István

2016-09-14

Representations encoding the probabilities of auditory events do not directly support predictive processing. In contrast, information about the probability with which a given sound follows another (transitional probability) allows predictions of upcoming sounds. We tested whether behavioral and cortical auditory deviance detection (the latter indexed by the mismatch negativity event-related potential) relies on probabilities of sound patterns or on transitional probabilities. We presented healthy adult volunteers with three types of rare tone-triplets among frequent standard triplets of high-low-high (H-L-H) or L-H-L pitch structure: proximity deviant (H-H-H/L-L-L), reversal deviant (L-H-L/H-L-H), and first-tone deviant (L-L-H/H-H-L). If deviance detection was based on pattern probability, reversal and first-tone deviants should be detected with similar latency because both differ from the standard at the first pattern position. If deviance detection was based on transitional probabilities, then reversal deviants should be the most difficult to detect because, unlike the other two deviants, they contain no low-probability pitch transitions. The data clearly showed that both behavioral and cortical auditory deviance detection uses transitional probabilities. Thus, the memory traces underlying cortical deviance detection may provide a link between stimulus probability-based change/novelty detectors operating at lower levels of the auditory system and higher auditory cognitive functions that involve predictive processing. Our research presents the first definite evidence for the auditory system prioritizing transitional probabilities over probabilities of individual sensory events. Forming representations for transitional probabilities paves the way for predictions of upcoming sounds. Several recent theories suggest that predictive processing provides the general basis of human perception, including important auditory functions, such as auditory scene analysis. Our

VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.

Occurrence and prognostic value of circumferential resection margin involvement for patients with rectal cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Cun; Zhou, Zong-guang; Yu, Yong-yang; Shu, Ye; Li, Yuan; Yang, Lie; Li, Li

2009-04-01

Total mesorectal excision (TME) was advocated owning to the reduction in local failure, while deficiency in pathologic details limited monitoring of surgical quality assurance. Here, we aimed to examine circumferential resection margin (CRM) by large tissue slice, discussing its rule in occurrence and relationship with prognosis, thus providing proof for the adoption of TME principles and the application of adjuvant therapy. Specimens of 106 patients with rectal cancer, who underwent potentially curative resection from December 2001 to September 2002, were examined. Follow-up data were collected. Altogether, 2,068 mesorectal nodes were examined with 272 involved by tumor. CRM involvement (CRMI) was examined in 20 specimens. In these 20 cases, seven, nine, and four were caused by tumor infiltration, lymph node metastasis, and both, respectively. Occurrence of CRMI was more common for lower-located cancers while also statistically related to tumor differentiation, infiltration, and lymph node metastasis. The difference in local recurrence rate, general recurrence rate, disease-free survival rate, and overall survival rate between the group with CRMI and the group without were all proven to be significant. Detailed pathologic examination, including status of CRM, is advocated since it provides accurate prognostic information. Surgeons could maximize the probability of cure by following the principle of TME. Preoperative adjuvant therapy was essential for advanced staged and lower-located lesions, which implied likelihood of CRMI.

PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

Science.gov (United States)

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

Modeling experiments using quantum and Kolmogorov probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hess, Karl

2008-01-01

Criteria are presented that permit a straightforward partition of experiments into sets that can be modeled using both quantum probability and the classical probability framework of Kolmogorov. These new criteria concentrate on the operational aspects of the experiments and lead beyond the commonly appreciated partition by relating experiments to commuting and non-commuting quantum operators as well as non-entangled and entangled wavefunctions. In other words the space of experiments that can be understood using classical probability is larger than usually assumed. This knowledge provides advantages for areas such as nanoscience and engineering or quantum computation.

Correlations and Non-Linear Probability Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Breen, Richard; Holm, Anders; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

2014-01-01

the dependent variable of the latent variable model and its predictor variables. We show how this correlation can be derived from the parameters of non-linear probability models, develop tests for the statistical significance of the derived correlation, and illustrate its usefulness in two applications. Under......Although the parameters of logit and probit and other non-linear probability models are often explained and interpreted in relation to the regression coefficients of an underlying linear latent variable model, we argue that they may also be usefully interpreted in terms of the correlations between...... certain circumstances, which we explain, the derived correlation provides a way of overcoming the problems inherent in cross-sample comparisons of the parameters of non-linear probability models....

Investigation on Abnormal Iron Metabolism and Related Inflammation in Parkinson Disease Patients with Probable RBD

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Yang; Yu, Shu-Yang; Zuo, Li-Jun; Piao, Ying-Shan; Cao, Chen-Jie; Wang, Fang; Chen, Ze-Jie; Du, Yang; Lian, Teng-Hong; Liu, Gai-Fen; Wang, Ya-Jie; Chan, Piu; Chen, Sheng-Di; Wang, Xiao-Min; Zhang, Wei

2015-01-01

Objective To investigate potential mechanisms involving abnormal iron metabolism and related inflammation in Parkinson disease (PD) patients with probable rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (PRBD). Methods Total 210 PD patients and 31 controls were consecutively recruited. PD patients were evaluated by RBD Screening Questionnaire (RBDSQ) and classified into PRBD and probable no RBD (NPRBD) groups. Demographics information were recorded and clinical symptoms were evaluated by series of rating scales. Levels of iron and related proteins and inflammatory factors in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and serum were detected. Comparisons among control, NPRBD and PRBD groups and correlation analyses between RBDSQ score and levels of above factors were performed. Results (1)The frequency of PRBD in PD patients is 31.90%. (2)PRBD group has longer disease duration, more advanced disease stage, severer motor symptoms and more non-motor symptoms than NPRBD group. (3)In CSF, levels of iron, transferrin, NO and IL–1β in PRBD group are prominently increased. RBDSQ score is positively correlated with the levels of iron, transferrin, NO and IL–1β in PD group. Iron level is positively correlated with the levels of NO and IL–1β in PD group. (4)In serum, transferrin level is prominently decreased in PRBD group. PGE2 level in PRBD group is drastically enhanced. RBDSQ score exhibits a positive correlation with PGE2 level in PD group. Conclusions PRBD is common in PD patients. PRBD group has severer motor symptoms and more non-motor symptoms. Excessive iron in brain resulted from abnormal iron metabolism in central and peripheral systems is correlated with PRBD through neuroinflammation. PMID:26431210

A human error probability estimate methodology based on fuzzy inference and expert judgment on nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nascimento, C.S. do; Mesquita, R.N. de

2009-01-01

Recent studies point human error as an important factor for many industrial and nuclear accidents: Three Mile Island (1979), Bhopal (1984), Chernobyl and Challenger (1986) are classical examples. Human contribution to these accidents may be better understood and analyzed by using Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), which has being taken as an essential part on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of nuclear plants. Both HRA and PSA depend on Human Error Probability (HEP) for a quantitative analysis. These probabilities are extremely affected by the Performance Shaping Factors (PSF), which has a direct effect on human behavior and thus shape HEP according with specific environment conditions and personal individual characteristics which are responsible for these actions. This PSF dependence raises a great problem on data availability as turn these scarcely existent database too much generic or too much specific. Besides this, most of nuclear plants do not keep historical records of human error occurrences. Therefore, in order to overcome this occasional data shortage, a methodology based on Fuzzy Inference and expert judgment was employed in this paper in order to determine human error occurrence probabilities and to evaluate PSF's on performed actions by operators in a nuclear power plant (IEA-R1 nuclear reactor). Obtained HEP values were compared with reference tabled data used on current literature in order to show method coherence and valid approach. This comparison leads to a conclusion that this work results are able to be employed both on HRA and PSA enabling efficient prospection of plant safety conditions, operational procedures and local working conditions potential improvements (author)

Diurnal and seasonal occurrence of polar patches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. S. Rodger

1996-05-01

Full Text Available Analysis of the diurnal and seasonal variation of polar patches, as identified in two years of HF-radar data from Halley, Antarctica during a period near sunspot maximum, shows that there is a broad maximum in occurrence centred about magnetic noon, not local noon. There are minima in occurrence near midsummer and midwinter, with maxima in occurrence between equinox and winter. There are no significant correlations between the occurrence of polar patches and the corresponding hourly averages of the solar wind and IMF parameters, except that patches usually occur when the interplanetary magnetic field has a southward component. The results can be understood in terms of UT and seasonal differences in the plasma concentration being convected from the dayside ionosphere into the polar cap. In summer and winter the electron concentrations in the polar cap are high and low, respectively, but relatively unstructured. About equinox, a tongue of enhanced ionisation is convected into the polar cap; this tongue is then structured by the effects of the interplanetary magnetic field, but these Halley data cannot be used to separate the various competing mechanisms for patch formation. The observed diurnal and seasonal variation in the occurrence of polar patches are largely consistent with predictions of Sojka et al. (1994 when their results are translated into the southern hemisphere. However, the ionospheric effects of flux transfer events are still considered essential in their formation, a feature not yet included in the Sojka et al. model.

Relation of submarine landslide to hydrate occurrences in Baiyun Depression, South China Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Yunbao; Zhang, Xiaohua; Wu, Shiguo; Wang, Lei; Yang, Shengxiong

2018-02-01

Submarine landslides have been observed in the Baiyun Depression of the South China Sea. The occurrence of hydrates below these landslides indicates that these slope instabilities may be closely related to the massive release of methane. In this study, we used a simple Monte-Carlo model to determine the first-order deformation pattern of a gravitationally destabilizing slope. The results show that a stress concentration occurs due to hydrate dissociation on the nearby glide surface and on top of a gas chimney structure. Upon the dissolution of the gas hydrate, slope failure occurs due to the excess pore pressure generated by the dissociation of the gas hydrates. When gas hydrates dissociate at shallow depths, the excess pore pressure generated can be greater than the total stress acting at those points, along with the forces that resist sliding. Initially, the failure occurs at the toe of the slope, then extends to the interior. Although our investigation focused only on the contribution of hydrate decomposition to submarine landslide, this process is also affected by both the slope material properties and topography.

Occurrence of 3-chloro-propane-1,2-diol (3-MCPD) and related compounds in foods: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlet, C G; Sadd, P A; Crews, C; Velísek, J; Baxter, D E

2002-07-01

A critical review of the occurrence of 3-chloro-propane-1,2-diol (3-MCPD) in foods not known to contain hydrolysed vegetable proteins is presented. The review covers the properties and chemistry of 3-MCPD and the current methods of analysis in foodstuffs. The results of UK surveys of 3-MCPD occurrence in both retail foods and commercial food ingredients are discussed with particular reference to cereal, meat and dairy products. The possible mechanisms for the formation and decay of 3-MCPD in foods are suggested. The review does not cover the detailed toxicology of 3-MCPD and its occurrence in hydrolysed vegetable proteins, which have been considered elsewhere, nor possible issues such as in-vivo formation.

Occurrence and distribution of Chytridiales related to some physical and chemical factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samy K. Hassan

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Physical and chemical properties of water and soil were positively corelated with the occurrence and distribution of chytrides. Thirty-six zoosporic members of chytrids belonging to fourteen genera were recorded in the present study. Nowakowskiella, Karlingia, Cladochytrium, Endochytrium and Rhizophlyctis were the most common genera observed along River Nileshore and other canals in nine Governorates in Egypt during the winter of 1989/1990.

Paradoxes in probability theory

CERN Document Server

Eckhardt, William

2013-01-01

Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory.  Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies.  Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.

Probability theory a foundational course

CERN Document Server

Pakshirajan, R P

2013-01-01

This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.

Probabilistic generation of random networks taking into account information on motifs occurrence.

Science.gov (United States)

Bois, Frederic Y; Gayraud, Ghislaine

2015-01-01

Because of the huge number of graphs possible even with a small number of nodes, inference on network structure is known to be a challenging problem. Generating large random directed graphs with prescribed probabilities of occurrences of some meaningful patterns (motifs) is also difficult. We show how to generate such random graphs according to a formal probabilistic representation, using fast Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to sample them. As an illustration, we generate realistic graphs with several hundred nodes mimicking a gene transcription interaction network in Escherichia coli.

Probability an introduction

CERN Document Server

Goldberg, Samuel

1960-01-01

Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

Probability 1/e

Science.gov (United States)

Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

2011-01-01

Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

Elements of probability and statistics an introduction to probability with De Finetti’s approach and to Bayesian statistics

CERN Document Server

Biagini, Francesca

2016-01-01

This book provides an introduction to elementary probability and to Bayesian statistics using de Finetti's subjectivist approach. One of the features of this approach is that it does not require the introduction of sample space – a non-intrinsic concept that makes the treatment of elementary probability unnecessarily complicate – but introduces as fundamental the concept of random numbers directly related to their interpretation in applications. Events become a particular case of random numbers and probability a particular case of expectation when it is applied to events. The subjective evaluation of expectation and of conditional expectation is based on an economic choice of an acceptable bet or penalty. The properties of expectation and conditional expectation are derived by applying a coherence criterion that the evaluation has to follow. The book is suitable for all introductory courses in probability and statistics for students in Mathematics, Informatics, Engineering, and Physics.

Unusual occurrence report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1981-01-01

The final report provides information on an occurrence which took place in the HEDL Radioactive Liquid Waste System (RLWS), during which radioactive waste water entered the Retention Process Waste System. The RLWS has been cleared of the obstruction and is in full operation. Investigation of the occurrence and testing of the equipment involved is completed

An Empirical Model for Estimating the Probability of Electrical Short Circuits from Tin Whiskers. Part 2

Science.gov (United States)

Courey, Karim; Wright, Clara; Asfour, Shihab; Onar, Arzu; Bayliss, Jon; Ludwig, Larry

2009-01-01

In this experiment, an empirical model to quantify the probability of occurrence of an electrical short circuit from tin whiskers as a function of voltage was developed. This empirical model can be used to improve existing risk simulation models. FIB and TEM images of a tin whisker confirm the rare polycrystalline structure on one of the three whiskers studied. FIB cross-section of the card guides verified that the tin finish was bright tin.

Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slunga, R.

1979-03-01

A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)

Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com [Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon (Turkey); Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı (Turkey)

2016-04-18

In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed time using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.

Effects of Potential Lane-Changing Probability on Uniform Flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang Tieqiao; Huang Haijun; Shang Huayan

2010-01-01

In this paper, we use the car-following model with the anticipation effect of the potential lane-changing probability (Acta Mech. Sin. 24 (2008) 399) to investigate the effects of the potential lane-changing probability on uniform flow. The analytical and numerical results show that the potential lane-changing probability can enhance the speed and flow of uniform flow and that their increments are related to the density.

Digital integration of geological and aeroradiometric data for probability mapping of uranium occurrences in parts of south-eastern Rajasthan, India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chawla, A.S.; Katti, V.J.; Kak, S.N.; Das, S.K.

1993-01-01

Integration and evaluation of geological, radio geochemical, and magnetic information of Umra-Udaisagar and Sarara inlier area, Udaipur district, Rajasthan was attempted. Seventeen lithostructural variables from colour infrared (CIR) photo geological analogue maps were interpreted, radio geochemical and magnetic variables thematically evaluated from airborne gamma-ray spectrometric (AGRS) and aero magnetic (AM) digital data were co-registered using a sequential grid matrix of 500 m x 500 m. The variables were quantified using theme-specific equations and digitized in simple Boolean representation format, depending on the presence or absence of a variable, its positive or negative interest, and/or greater than or less than a theme-specific value in each cell. The database so generated was subjected to a software programme weighted modelling wherein, weights for each variable are computed based on conditional probability method, and favorability index maps are generated by discriminant objective analysis. Areas with high probability for uranium mineralisation were delineated by computing composite coincidence of cells with high favorability index value considering each variable as a control variable. Critical analysis of weights computed for each variable in different sets predicts the importance of control of the variable to uranium mineralisation. This attempt has resulted in delineating several new high-probability zones of uranium enrichment and indicated a regional structural control in the area. (author). 11 refs., 4 figs

Probability of pregnancy as affected by oestrus number and days to first oestrus in dairy cows of three breeds and parities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friggens, N C; Labouriau, R

2010-01-01

An improved understanding of the animal factors that affect measures such as conception rate would contribute to solving the problem of impaired reproductive performance in modern dairy cows. A question of particular interest relates to the observed improvement in conception rates from first...... to second and third oestrus cycle: is the increase in conception rate related to cycle number per se or to increasing days from calving? A 5-year study using three breeds (Holstein, Jersey and Danish Red) allowed this issue to be examined. In 560 lactations, from calving until confirmed pregnancy or until...... model. Danish Red cows had a significantly greater rate of occurrence of first oestrus over time. Generalized linear mixed models defined using a binomial distribution and logit link function were used to estimate probability of pregnancy as affected by: breed, parity, oestrus number and days from...

Framing of outcome and probability of recurrence: breast cancer patients' choice of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) in hypothetical patient scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmermann, C; Baldo, C; Molino, A

2000-03-01

To examine the effects of framing of outcome and probabilities of cancer occurrence on the treatment preference which breast cancer patients indicate for hypothetical patient scenarios. A modified version of the Decision Board Instrument (Levine et al. 1992) was administered to 35 breast cancer patients with past ACT experience. Patients expressed their choice regarding ACT for six scenarios which were characterized by either negative or positive framing of outcome and by one of the three levels of probability of recurrence (high, medium, low). The framing had no influence on ACT choices over all three probability levels. The majority chose ACT for high and medium risk and one third switched from ACT to No ACT in the low-risk condition. This switch was statistically significant. Hypothetical treatment decisions against ACT occur only when the probability of recurrence is low and the benefit of ACT is small. This finding for patients with past experience of ACT is similar to those reported for other oncological patient groups still in treatment.

Nonstationarity in the occurrence rate of floods in the Tarim River basin, China, and related impacts of climate indices

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Xihui; Zhang, Qiang; Singh, Vijay P.; Chen, Xi; Liu, Lin

2016-07-01

Amplification of floods in the Xinjiang, China, has been observed, but reports on their changing properties and underlying mechanisms are not available. In this study, occurrence rates of floods in the Tarim River basin, the largest inland arid river basin in China, were analyzed using the Kernel density estimation technique and bootstrap resampling method. Also analyzed were the occurrence rates of precipitation extremes using the POT (Peak over Threshold)-based sampling method. Both stationary and non-stationary models were developed using GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) to model flood frequency with time, climate index, precipitation and temperature as major predictors. Results indicated: (1) two periods with increasing occurrence of floods, i.e., the late 1960s and the late 1990s with considerable fluctuations around 2-3 flood events during time intervals between the late 1960s and the late 1990s; (2) changes in the occurrence rates of floods were subject to nonstationarity. A persistent increase of flood frequency and magnitude was observed during the 1990s and reached a peak value; (3) AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and AO (Atlantic Oscillation) in winter were the key influencing climate indices impacting the occurrence rates of floods. However, NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and SOI (South Oscillation Index) are two principle factors that influence the occurrence rates of regional floods. The AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) values indicated that compared to the influence of climate indices, occurrence rates of floods seemed to be more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes. Results of this study are important for flood management and development of mitigation measures.

Handbook of probability

CERN Document Server

Florescu, Ionut

2013-01-01

THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

Probability-1

CERN Document Server

Shiryaev, Albert N

2016-01-01

This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

Science.gov (United States)

Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

2011-01-01

Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

Codon based co-occurrence network motifs in human mitochondria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pramod Shinde

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The nucleotide polymorphism in human mitochondrial genome (mtDNA tolled by codon position bias plays an indispensable role in human population dispersion and expansion. Herein, we constructed genome-wide nucleotide co-occurrence networks using a massive data consisting of five different geographical regions and around 3000 samples for each region. We developed a powerful network model to describe complex mitochondrial evolutionary patterns between codon and non-codon positions. It was interesting to report a different evolution of Asian genomes than those of the rest which is divulged by network motifs. We found evidence that mtDNA undergoes substantial amounts of adaptive evolution, a finding which was supported by a number of previous studies. The dominance of higher order motifs indicated the importance of long-range nucleotide co-occurrence in genomic diversity. Most notably, codon motifs apparently underpinned the preferences among codon positions for co-evolution which is probably highly biased during the origin of the genetic code. Our analyses manifested that codon position co-evolution is very well conserved across human sub-populations and independently maintained within human sub-populations implying the selective role of evolutionary processes on codon position co-evolution. Ergo, this study provided a framework to investigate cooperative genomic interactions which are critical in underlying complex mitochondrial evolution.

Predicting binary choices from probability phrase meanings.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallsten, Thomas S; Jang, Yoonhee

2008-08-01

The issues of how individuals decide which of two events is more likely and of how they understand probability phrases both involve judging relative likelihoods. In this study, we investigated whether derived scales representing probability phrase meanings could be used within a choice model to predict independently observed binary choices. If they can, this simultaneously provides support for our model and suggests that the phrase meanings are measured meaningfully. The model assumes that, when deciding which of two events is more likely, judges take a single sample from memory regarding each event and respond accordingly. The model predicts choice probabilities by using the scaled meanings of individually selected probability phrases as proxies for confidence distributions associated with sampling from memory. Predictions are sustained for 34 of 41 participants but, nevertheless, are biased slightly low. Sequential sampling models improve the fit. The results have both theoretical and applied implications.

PREDOMINANCE AND SOCIAL DETERMINANTS IN OCCURRENCE OF PARASITOSIS IN CENTEREASTERN REGION OF PARANÁ: A SOCIOECONOMIC ANALYZES OF THE PROBLEM.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patricia Regina Cenci Queiroz, Angela Patricia Motin, Cristiane Aparecida Verbaneck, Franciely Damaris de Cristo, Marcia de Souza Oliveira, Marcia Maria Veronese e Shirley Rak Mantovani

2006-12-01

Full Text Available Considering the high incidence of parasitic diseases in centereastern region of Paraná, an inquiry about its probable determinants was carried out. Particularly, the occurrence of Ascaris Lumbricoides was analyzed. Bibliographical research referring to this theme and data-collecting from centereastern region have been carried out, attempting to contextualize the epidemiological condition of this region. We can conclude that the high occurrence of ascariasis in analyzed region is linked to life conditions of general population, the deficiency in urban and sanitary planning, socioeconomic conditions and, essentially, the absence of investments in basic infrastructure. Thus, this study demonstrates the need of an urgent prophylactic action.

Optimum principle for a vehicular traffic network: minimum probability of congestion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kerner, Boris S

2011-01-01

We introduce an optimum principle for a vehicular traffic network with road bottlenecks. This network breakdown minimization (BM) principle states that the network optimum is reached when link flow rates are assigned in the network in such a way that the probability for spontaneous occurrence of traffic breakdown in at least one of the network bottlenecks during a given observation time reaches the minimum possible value. Based on numerical simulations with a stochastic three-phase traffic flow model, we show that in comparison to the well-known Wardrop's principles, the application of the BM principle permits considerably greater network inflow rates at which no traffic breakdown occurs and, therefore, free flow remains in the whole network. (fast track communication)

Estimated Probability of a Cervical Spine Injury During an ISS Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Brooker, John E.; Weaver, Aaron S.; Myers, Jerry G.

2013-01-01

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes historical data, cohort data, and external simulations as input factors to provide estimates of crew health, resource utilization and mission outcomes. The Cervical Spine Injury Module (CSIM) is an external simulation designed to provide the IMM with parameter estimates for 1) a probability distribution function (PDF) of the incidence rate, 2) the mean incidence rate, and 3) the standard deviation associated with the mean resulting from injury/trauma of the neck. Methods: An injury mechanism based on an idealized low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax of an ISS crewmember was used as the simulated mission environment. As a result of this impact, the cervical spine is inertially loaded from the mass of the head producing an extension-flexion motion deforming the soft tissues of the neck. A multibody biomechanical model was developed to estimate the kinematic and dynamic response of the head-neck system from a prescribed acceleration profile. Logistic regression was performed on a dataset containing AIS1 soft tissue neck injuries from rear-end automobile collisions with published Neck Injury Criterion values producing an injury transfer function (ITF). An injury event scenario (IES) was constructed such that crew 1 is moving through a primary or standard translation path transferring large volume equipment impacting stationary crew 2. The incidence rate for this IES was estimated from in-flight data and used to calculate the probability of occurrence. The uncertainty in the model input factors were estimated from representative datasets and expressed in terms of probability distributions. A Monte Carlo Method utilizing simple random sampling was employed to propagate both aleatory and epistemic uncertain factors. Scatterplots and partial correlation coefficients (PCC) were generated to determine input factor sensitivity. CSIM was developed in the SimMechanics/Simulink environment with a

Species co-occurrence networks: Can they reveal trophic and non-trophic interactions in ecological communities?

Science.gov (United States)

Freilich, Mara A; Wieters, Evie; Broitman, Bernardo R; Marquet, Pablo A; Navarrete, Sergio A

2018-03-01

Co-occurrence methods are increasingly utilized in ecology to infer networks of species interactions where detailed knowledge based on empirical studies is difficult to obtain. Their use is particularly common, but not restricted to, microbial networks constructed from metagenomic analyses. In this study, we test the efficacy of this procedure by comparing an inferred network constructed using spatially intensive co-occurrence data from the rocky intertidal zone in central Chile to a well-resolved, empirically based, species interaction network from the same region. We evaluated the overlap in the information provided by each network and the extent to which there is a bias for co-occurrence data to better detect known trophic or non-trophic, positive or negative interactions. We found a poor correspondence between the co-occurrence network and the known species interactions with overall sensitivity (probability of true link detection) equal to 0.469, and specificity (true non-interaction) equal to 0.527. The ability to detect interactions varied with interaction type. Positive non-trophic interactions such as commensalism and facilitation were detected at the highest rates. These results demonstrate that co-occurrence networks do not represent classical ecological networks in which interactions are defined by direct observations or experimental manipulations. Co-occurrence networks provide information about the joint spatial effects of environmental conditions, recruitment, and, to some extent, biotic interactions, and among the latter, they tend to better detect niche-expanding positive non-trophic interactions. Detection of links (sensitivity or specificity) was not higher for well-known intertidal keystone species than for the rest of consumers in the community. Thus, as observed in previous empirical and theoretical studies, patterns of interactions in co-occurrence networks must be interpreted with caution, especially when extending interaction

Probability in reasoning: a developmental test on conditionals.

Science.gov (United States)

Barrouillet, Pierre; Gauffroy, Caroline

2015-04-01

Probabilistic theories have been claimed to constitute a new paradigm for the psychology of reasoning. A key assumption of these theories is captured by what they call the Equation, the hypothesis that the meaning of the conditional is probabilistic in nature and that the probability of If p then q is the conditional probability, in such a way that P(if p then q)=P(q|p). Using the probabilistic truth-table task in which participants are required to evaluate the probability of If p then q sentences, the present study explored the pervasiveness of the Equation through ages (from early adolescence to adulthood), types of conditionals (basic, causal, and inducements) and contents. The results reveal that the Equation is a late developmental achievement only endorsed by a narrow majority of educated adults for certain types of conditionals depending on the content they involve. Age-related changes in evaluating the probability of all the conditionals studied closely mirror the development of truth-value judgements observed in previous studies with traditional truth-table tasks. We argue that our modified mental model theory can account for this development, and hence for the findings related with the probability task, which do not consequently support the probabilistic approach of human reasoning over alternative theories. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measurement uncertainty and probability

CERN Document Server

Willink, Robin

2013-01-01

A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

RadCon Occurrence Reporting Simplified

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Denham, D. H.

1999-01-01

This narrative and accompanying diagrams provide a simplified summary of the RadCon Occurrence Reporting criteria to allow Environmental Restoration Contractor (ERC) staff to efficiently recognize occurrences and to effectively initiate the implementation of the requirements of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 232.1A, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information, and of the ERC criteria defined in BHI-MA-02, ERC Project Procedures, Procedure 2.6, ''Occurrence Investigation and Reporting.'' These directives promote timely identification, categorization, notification, and reporting to DOE and ERC management of reportable occurrences at DOE-owned or -operated facilities that could (1) affect health and safety of the public, (2) seriously impact the intended purpose of DOE facilities, (3) adversely affect the credibility of DOE, or (4) have a noticeable adverse effect on the environment

Annotated bibliography of safety-related occurrences in nuclear power plans as reported in 1974

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, R.L.; Gallaher, R.B.

1975-05-01

All abnormal occurrences at nuclear power plants reported in 1974 are reviewed and summarized. This bibliography covers the individual reports on each of the 1421 abnormal occurrences reported to the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, as well as some 455 other documents pertaining to these and other events of note. The review is intended to provide insight as to where additional effort can be expended to improve operations in nuclear power plants. The individual reports, abstracted by the Nuclear Safety Information Center, concern incidents and failures, design or construction deficiencies, and noncompliance citations for license violations. A bibliography is included which contains 100-word abstracts of each incident. For convenience, the bibliography is organized according to type of facility as follows: boiling-water reactors; pressurized-water reactors; non-water-cooled power reactors; and reactors, general. Key-word and permuted-title indexes are provided for each section. (U.S.)

Janus-faced probability

CERN Document Server

Rocchi, Paolo

2014-01-01

The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.

Ensemble based system for whole-slide prostate cancer probability mapping using color texture features.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

DiFranco, Matthew D

2011-01-01

We present a tile-based approach for producing clinically relevant probability maps of prostatic carcinoma in histological sections from radical prostatectomy. Our methodology incorporates ensemble learning for feature selection and classification on expert-annotated images. Random forest feature selection performed over varying training sets provides a subset of generalized CIEL*a*b* co-occurrence texture features, while sample selection strategies with minimal constraints reduce training data requirements to achieve reliable results. Ensembles of classifiers are built using expert-annotated tiles from training images, and scores for the probability of cancer presence are calculated from the responses of each classifier in the ensemble. Spatial filtering of tile-based texture features prior to classification results in increased heat-map coherence as well as AUC values of 95% using ensembles of either random forests or support vector machines. Our approach is designed for adaptation to different imaging modalities, image features, and histological decision domains.

Report to Congress on abnormal occurrences, January--March 1988

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-07-01

Section 208 of the Energy Reorganization Act of 1974 identifies an abnormal occurrence as an unscheduled incident or event which the Nuclear Regulatory Commission determines to be significant from the standpoint of public health or safety and requires a quarterly report of such events to be made to Congress. This report covers the period from January 1 to March 31, 1988. For this reporting period, there were three abnormal occurrences at nuclear power plants licensed to operate: a potential for common mode failure of safety-related components due to a degraded instrument air system at Fort Calhoun; common mode failures of main steam isolation valves at Perry Unit 1; and a cracked pipe weld in a safety injection system at Farley Unit 2. There were six abnormal occurrences at other NRC licensees: a diagnostic medical misadministration; a breakdown in management controls at the Georgia Institute of Technology reactor facility; release of polonium-210 from static elimination devices manufactured by the 3M Company; two therapeutic medical misadministrationS; and a significant widespread breakdown in the radiation safety program at Case Western Reserve University research laboratories. There was one abnormal occurrence reported by an Agreement State (Texas) involving radiation injury to two radiographers. The report also contains information updating some previously reported abnormal occurrences. 43 refs

VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

2005-01-01

Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

Ruin probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaewon Kwak

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Since its reappearance at the Military Demarcation Line in 1993, malaria has been occurring annually in Korea. Malaria is regarded as a third grade nationally notifiable disease susceptible to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in Korea and construct a malaria occurrence model for predicting the future trend of malaria under the influence of climate change. Using data from 2001–2011, the effect of time lag between malaria occurrence and mean temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation was investigated using spectral analysis. Also, a principal component regression model was constructed, considering multicollinearity. Future climate data, generated from RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and CNCM3 climate model, was applied to the constructed regression model to simulate future malaria occurrence and analyze the trend of occurrence. Results show an increase in the occurrence of malaria and the shortening of annual time of occurrence in the future.

Future climate data from RCP 4.5 and occurrence of malaria in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwak, Jaewon; Noh, Huiseong; Kim, Soojun; Singh, Vijay P; Hong, Seung Jin; Kim, Duckgil; Lee, Keonhaeng; Kang, Narae; Kim, Hung Soo

2014-10-15

Since its reappearance at the Military Demarcation Line in 1993, malaria has been occurring annually in Korea. Malaria is regarded as a third grade nationally notifiable disease susceptible to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in Korea and construct a malaria occurrence model for predicting the future trend of malaria under the influence of climate change. Using data from 2001-2011, the effect of time lag between malaria occurrence and mean temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation was investigated using spectral analysis. Also, a principal component regression model was constructed, considering multicollinearity. Future climate data, generated from RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and CNCM3 climate model, was applied to the constructed regression model to simulate future malaria occurrence and analyze the trend of occurrence. Results show an increase in the occurrence of malaria and the shortening of annual time of occurrence in the future.

Occurrence of Somma-Vesuvio fine ashes in the tephrostratigraphic record of Panarea, Aeolian Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Donatella, De Rita; Daniela, Dolfi; Corrado, Cimarelli

2008-10-01

Ash-rich tephra layers interbedded in the pyroclastic successions of Panarea island (Aeolian archipelago, Southern Italy) have been analyzed and related to their original volcanic sources. One of these tephra layers is particularly important as it can be correlated by its chemical and morphoscopic characteristics to the explosive activity of Somma-Vesuvio. Correlation with the Pomici di Base eruption, that is considered one of the largest explosive events causing the demolition of the Somma stratovolcano, seems the most probable. The occurrence on Panarea island of fine ashes related to this eruption is of great importance for several reasons: 1) it allows to better constrain the time stratigraphy of the Panarea volcano; 2) it provides a useful tool for tephrochronological studies in southern Italy and finally 3) it allows to improve our knowledge on the distribution of the products of the Pomici di Base eruption giving new insights on the dispersion trajectories of fine ashes from plinian plumes. Other exotic tephra layers interbedded in the Panarea pyroclastic successions have also been found. Chemical and sedimentological characteristics of these layers allow their correlation with local vents from the Aeolian Islands thus constraining the late explosive activity of Panarea dome.

The determination of transition probabilities with an inductively-coupled plasma discharge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nieuwoudt, G.

1984-03-01

The 27 MHz inductively-coupled plasma discharge (ICP) is used for the determination of relative transition probabilities of the 451, 459 and 470 nm argon spectral lines. The temperature of the argon plasma is determined with hydrogen as thermometric specie, because of the accurate transition probabilities ( approximately 1% uncertainty) there of. The relative transition probabilities of the specific argon spectral lines were determined by substitution of the measured spectral radiances thereof, together with the hydrogen temperature, in the two-line equation of temperature measurement

Sexual behaviors, relationships, and perceived health among adult men in the United States: results from a national probability sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Reece, Michael; Herbenick, Debby; Schick, Vanessa; Sanders, Stephanie A; Dodge, Brian; Fortenberry, J Dennis

2010-10-01

To provide a foundation for those who provide sexual health services and programs to men in the United States, the need for population-based data that describes men's sexual behaviors and their correlates remains. The purpose of this study was to, in a national probability survey of men ages 18-94 years, assess the occurrence and frequency of sexual behaviors and their associations with relationship status and health status. A national probability sample of 2,522 men aged 18 to 94 completed a cross-sectional survey about their sexual behaviors, relationship status, and health. Relationship status; health status; experience of solo masturbation, partnered masturbation, giving oral sex, receiving oral sex, vaginal intercourse and anal intercourse, in the past 90 days; frequency of solo masturbation, vaginal intercourse and anal intercourse in the past year. Masturbation, oral intercourse, and vaginal intercourse are prevalent among men throughout most of their adult life, with both occurrence and frequency varying with age and as functions of relationship type and physical health status. Masturbation is prevalent and frequent across various stages of life and for both those with and without a relational partner, with fewer men with fair to poor health reporting recent masturbation. Patterns of giving oral sex to a female partner were similar to those for receiving oral sex. Vaginal intercourse in the past 90 days was more prevalent among men in their late 20s and 30s than in the other age groups, although being reported by approximately 50% of men in the sixth and seventh decades of life. Anal intercourse and sexual interactions with other men were less common than all other sexual behaviors. Contemporary men in the United States engage in diverse solo and partnered sexual activities; however, sexual behavior is less common and more infrequent among older age cohorts. © 2010 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

Interpretations of probability

CERN Document Server

Khrennikov, Andrei

2009-01-01

This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

Acute Dysphasia and Reversible Cognitive Decline in a Patient with Probable Cerebral Amyloid Angiopathy-Related Inflammation

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Louise Rigney

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Cerebral amyloid angiopathy related inflammation (CAAri is becoming increasingly recognised as a subset of cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA. CAAri generally presents with subacute cognitive decline, headaches, seizures, behavioral changes, and focal neurological deficits. We describe a patient who developed acute dysphasia and reversible cognitive decline due to probable CAAri. CT brain showed bilateral vasogenic edema in the cerebral hemispheres, predominantly involving the parietal and temporal lobes, left greater than right without enhancement. Magnetic resonance brain imaging showed extensive multifocal areas of subcortical white matter T2 hyperintensity in the frontal and temporal regions with associated mass effect, negligible enhancement, and multiple foci of microhemorrhage on susceptibility weighted imaging sequences consistent with a diagnosis of probable CAAri. She responded dramatically to a course of intravenous methylprednisolone followed by further immunosuppression with pulse intravenous cyclophosphamide. Her dysphasia resolved within 5 days of intravenous methylprednisolone therapy. Her MMSE improved from 11/30 at day 5 of admission to 28/30 at 6-month follow-up. The notable features of our case were the unusual CT findings, which were inconsistent with stroke and diagnostic utility of susceptibility-weighted magnetic resonance imaging in confirming the diagnosis which allowed for prompt institution of immunosuppression.

Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD)

Science.gov (United States)

Generazio, Edward R.

2015-01-01

Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD) Manual v.1.2 The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that there is 95% confidence that the POD is greater than 90% (90/95 POD). Design of experiments for validating probability of detection capability of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) systems (DOEPOD) is a methodology that is implemented via software to serve as a diagnostic tool providing detailed analysis of POD test data, guidance on establishing data distribution requirements, and resolving test issues. DOEPOD demands utilization of observance of occurrences. The DOEPOD capability has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields observed POD and confidence bounds for both Hit-Miss or signal amplitude testing. DOEPOD does not assume prescribed POD logarithmic or similar functions with assumed adequacy over a wide range of flaw sizes and inspection system technologies, so that multi-parameter curve fitting or model optimization approaches to generate a POD curve are not required. DOEPOD applications for supporting inspector qualifications is included.

Relative level of occurrence of the principal heuristics in Nigeria property valuation

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Iroham C.O.,

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The neglect of the other principal heuristics namely avaialability, representative and positivity in real estate behaviourial property research as against the exclusive focus on anchoring and adjustment heuristics invariably results to a lopsided research. This work studied the four principal heuristics in property behaviourial property valutaion in a bid to discovering its relative level of occurrence. The study adopted a cross-sectional questionnaire survey approach of 159 of the 270 Head Offices of Estate Surveying and Valuation firms in Lagos Metropolis, while 29 and 30 questionnaire were distributed to the Head Offices of the entire Estate Surveying and Valuation Firms in Abuja and Port-Harcourt respectively. The data gotten was analyzed with the aid of Statistical Package for the Social Sciences first using frequency distributions/means and the data so analyzed was further analyzed using maximum and minimum values, means/standard deviations and ultimately ranking of such means. The result revealed that respondents use the various principal heuristics in this decreasing order of magnitude: availability heuristics (26.77%, anchoring and adjustment heuristics (18.62%; representative heuristics (15.63% and least of all positivity heuristics (10.41%. The authors thereby opined that emphasis be placed more on availability heuristics research particularly as usage of heuristcis (anchoring and adjustment has been seen to influence valuation inconsistency/accuracy

Sustainability from the Occurrence of Critical Dynamic Power System Blackout Determined by Using the Stochastic Event Tree Technique

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Muhammad Murtadha Othman

2017-06-01

Full Text Available With the advent of advanced technology in smart grid, the implementation of renewable energy in a stressed and complicated power system operation, aggravated by a competitive electricity market and critical system contingencies, this will inflict higher probabilities of the occurrence of a severe dynamic power system blackout. This paper presents the proposed stochastic event tree technique used to assess the sustainability against the occurrence of dynamic power system blackout emanating from implication of critical system contingencies such as the rapid increase in total loading condition and sensitive initial transmission line tripping. An extensive analysis of dynamic power system blackout has been carried out in a case study of the following power systems: IEEE RTS-79 and IEEE RTS-96. The findings have shown that the total loading conditions and sensitive transmission lines need to be given full attention by the utility to prevent the occurrence of dynamic power system blackout.

Frequency of fault occurrence at shallow depths during Plio-Pleistocene and estimation of the incident of new faults

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shiratsuchi, H.; Yoshida, S.

2009-01-01

It is required that buried high-level radioactive wastes should not be broken directly by faulting in the future. Although a disposal site will be selected in an area where no active faults are present, the possibility of new fault occurrence in the site has to be evaluated. The probability of new fault occurrence is estimated from the frequency of faults which exist in Pliocene and Pleistocene strata distributed beneath 3 large plains in Japan, where a large number of seismic profiles and borehole data are obtained. Estimation of the frequency of faults having occurred and/or reached at shallow depth during Plio-Pleistocene time. The frequency of fault occurrence was estimated by counting the number of faults that exist in Plio-Pleistocene strata that are widely distributed in large plains in Japan. Three plains, Kanto, Nobi and Osaka Plains are selected for this purpose because highly precise geological profiles, which were prepared from numerous geological drillings and geophysical investigations, are available in them. (authors)

Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Analysis of Orbital Conjunction Data

Science.gov (United States)

Carpenter, J. Russell; Markley, F. Landis; Gold, Dara

2013-01-01

We propose a Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for analysis of commonly available predictions associated with spacecraft conjunctions. Such predictions generally consist of a relative state and relative state error covariance at the time of closest approach, under the assumption that prediction errors are Gaussian. We show that under these circumstances, the likelihood ratio of the Wald test reduces to an especially simple form, involving the current best estimate of collision probability, and a similar estimate of collision probability that is based on prior assumptions about the likelihood of collision.

The association between occurrence and severity of subclinical and clinical mastitis on pregnancies per artificial insemination at first service of Holstein cows.

Science.gov (United States)

Fuenzalida, M J; Fricke, P M; Ruegg, P L

2015-06-01

The objective of this prospective study was to determine associations between occurrence and severity of clinical (CM) and subclinical mastitis (SM) during a defined breeding risk period (BRP, 3d before to 32d after artificial insemination) on pregnancies per artificial insemination at first service (P/AI1). Dairy cows (n=3,144) from 4 Wisconsin herds were categorized based on the occurrence of one or more CM or SM events during and before the BRP: (1) healthy, (2) mastitis before BRP, (3) SM during BRP, (4) chronic SM, (5) CM during BRP, or (6) chronic CM. Clinical mastitis cases were categorized based on etiology (gram-negative, gram-positive, and no growth) and severity (mild, moderate, or severe). Compared with healthy cows, the odds of pregnancy were 0.56, 0.67, and 0.75 for cows experiencing chronic CM, CM, or SM during the BRP, respectively. The occurrence of chronic SM was not associated with reduced probability of P/AI1. Compared with healthy cows, the odds of pregnancy were 0.71 and 0.54 for cows experiencing mild or moderate-severe cases of CM during the BRP, respectively. The odds of pregnancy for cows experiencing CM caused by gram-negative or gram-positive bacteria during the BRP were 0.47 and 0.59, respectively. The occurrence of CM that resulted in no growth of bacteria in cultured milk samples was not associated with reductions in P/AI1. Regardless of etiology, microbiologically positive cases of CM with moderate or severe symptoms were associated with substantial reductions in P/AI1. Etiology, severity, and timing of CM were associated with decreases in the probability of pregnancy at first artificial insemination. Severity of the case was more important than etiology; however, regardless of severity, microbiologically negative cases were not associated with reduced probability of pregnancy. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of NMDA receptor antagonists on probability discounting depend on the order of probability presentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Yates, Justin R; Breitenstein, Kerry A; Gunkel, Benjamin T; Hughes, Mallory N; Johnson, Anthony B; Rogers, Katherine K; Shape, Sara M

Risky decision making can be measured using a probability-discounting procedure, in which animals choose between a small, certain reinforcer and a large, uncertain reinforcer. Recent evidence has identified glutamate as a mediator of risky decision making, as blocking the N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) receptor with MK-801 increases preference for a large, uncertain reinforcer. Because the order in which probabilities associated with the large reinforcer can modulate the effects of drugs on choice, the current study determined if NMDA receptor ligands alter probability discounting using ascending and descending schedules. Sixteen rats were trained in a probability-discounting procedure in which the odds against obtaining the large reinforcer increased (n=8) or decreased (n=8) across blocks of trials. Following behavioral training, rats received treatments of the NMDA receptor ligands MK-801 (uncompetitive antagonist; 0, 0.003, 0.01, or 0.03mg/kg), ketamine (uncompetitive antagonist; 0, 1.0, 5.0, or 10.0mg/kg), and ifenprodil (NR2B-selective non-competitive antagonist; 0, 1.0, 3.0, or 10.0mg/kg). Results showed discounting was steeper (indicating increased risk aversion) for rats on an ascending schedule relative to rats on the descending schedule. Furthermore, the effects of MK-801, ketamine, and ifenprodil on discounting were dependent on the schedule used. Specifically, the highest dose of each drug decreased risk taking in rats in the descending schedule, but only MK-801 (0.03mg/kg) increased risk taking in rats on an ascending schedule. These results show that probability presentation order modulates the effects of NMDA receptor ligands on risky decision making. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pyrrolizidine alkaloids: occurrence, biology, and chemical synthesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, Jeremy; Stevens, Kiri

2017-01-04

Covering: 2013 up to the end of 2015This review covers the isolation and structure of new pyrrolizidines; pyrrolizidine biosynthesis; biological activity, including the occurrence of pyrrolizidines as toxic components or contaminants in foods and beverages; and formal and total syntheses of naturally-occurring pyrrolizidine alkaloids and closely related non-natural analogues.

Precipitation increases the occurrence of sporadic legionnaires' disease in Taiwan.

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Nai-Tzu Chen

Full Text Available Legionnaires' disease (LD is an acute form of pneumonia, and changing weather is considered a plausible risk factor. Yet, the relationship between weather and LD has rarely been investigated, especially using long-term daily data. In this study, daily data was used to evaluate the impacts of precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity on LD occurrence in Taiwan from 1995-2011. A time-stratified 2:1 matched-period case-crossover design was used to compare each case with self-controlled data using a conditional logistic regression analysis, and odds ratios (ORs for LD occurrence was estimated. The city, gender and age were defined as a stratum for each matched set to modify the effects. For lag day- 0 to 15, the precipitation at lag day-11 significantly affected LD occurrence (p0.05. In conclusion, in warm, humid regions, an increase of daily precipitation is likely to be a critical weather factor triggering LD occurrence where the risk is found particularly significant at an 11-day lag. Additionally, precipitation at 21-40 and 61-80 mm might make LD occurrence more likely.

Path probabilities of continuous time random walks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eule, Stephan; Friedrich, Rudolf

2014-01-01

Employing the path integral formulation of a broad class of anomalous diffusion processes, we derive the exact relations for the path probability densities of these processes. In particular, we obtain a closed analytical solution for the path probability distribution of a Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) process. This solution is given in terms of its waiting time distribution and short time propagator of the corresponding random walk as a solution of a Dyson equation. Applying our analytical solution we derive generalized Feynman–Kac formulae. (paper)

Probable Gastrointestinal Toxicity of Kombucha Tea

Science.gov (United States)

Srinivasan, Radhika; Smolinske, Susan; Greenbaum, David

1997-01-01

Kombucha tea is a health beverage made by incubating the Kombucha “mushroom” in tea and sugar. Although therapeutic benefits have been attributed to the drink, neither its beneficial effects nor adverse side effects have been reported widely in the scientific literature. Side effects probably related to consumption of Kombucha tea are reported in four patients. Two presented with symptoms of allergic reaction, the third with jaundice, and the fourth with nausea, vomiting, and head and neck pain. In all four, use of Kombucha tea in proximity to onset of symptoms and symptom resolution on cessation of tea drinking suggest a probable etiologic association. PMID:9346462

A RANS knock model to predict the statistical occurrence of engine knock

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D'Adamo, Alessandro; Breda, Sebastiano; Fontanesi, Stefano; Irimescu, Adrian; Merola, Simona Silvia; Tornatore, Cinzia

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Development of a new RANS model for SI engine knock probability. • Turbulence-derived transport equations for variances of mixture fraction and enthalpy. • Gasoline autoignition delay times calculated from detailed chemical kinetics. • Knock probability validated against experiments on optically accessible GDI unit. • PDF-based knock model accounting for the random nature of SI engine knock in RANS simulations. - Abstract: In the recent past engine knock emerged as one of the main limiting aspects for the achievement of higher efficiency targets in modern spark-ignition (SI) engines. To attain these requirements, engine operating points must be moved as close as possible to the onset of abnormal combustions, although the turbulent nature of flow field and SI combustion leads to possibly ample fluctuations between consecutive engine cycles. This forces engine designers to distance the target condition from its theoretical optimum in order to prevent abnormal combustion, which can potentially damage engine components because of few individual heavy-knocking cycles. A statistically based RANS knock model is presented in this study, whose aim is the prediction not only of the ensemble average knock occurrence, poorly meaningful in such a stochastic event, but also of a knock probability. The model is based on look-up tables of autoignition times from detailed chemistry, coupled with transport equations for the variance of mixture fraction and enthalpy. The transported perturbations around the ensemble average value are based on variable gradients and on a local turbulent time scale. A multi-variate cell-based Gaussian-PDF model is proposed for the unburnt mixture, resulting in a statistical distribution for the in-cell reaction rate. An average knock precursor and its variance are independently calculated and transported; this results in the prediction of an earliest knock probability preceding the ensemble average knock onset, as confirmed by

Probability and containment of turbine missiles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeh, G.C.K.

1976-01-01

With the trend toward ever larger power generating plants with large high-speed turbines, an important plant design consideration is the potential for and consequences of mechanical failure of turbine rotors. Such rotor failure could result in high-velocity disc fragments (turbine missiles) perforating the turbine casing and jeopardizing vital plant systems. The designer must first estimate the probability of any turbine missile damaging any safety-related plant component for his turbine and his plant arrangement. If the probability is not low enough to be acceptable to the regulatory agency, he must design a shield to contain the postulated turbine missiles. Alternatively, the shield could be designed to retard (to reduce the velocity of) the missiles such that they would not damage any vital plant system. In this paper, some of the presently available references that can be used to evaluate the probability, containment and retardation of turbine missiles are reviewed; various alternative methods are compared; and subjects for future research are recommended. (Auth.)

Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

OpenAIRE

Melucci, Massimo

2011-01-01

The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

Optimum Inductive Methods. A study in Inductive Probability, Bayesian Statistics, and Verisimilitude.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Festa, Roberto

1992-01-01

According to the Bayesian view, scientific hypotheses must be appraised in terms of their posterior probabilities relative to the available experimental data. Such posterior probabilities are derived from the prior probabilities of the hypotheses by applying Bayes'theorem. One of the most important

[Probabilities cannot be calculated retrospectively--not even in the courtroom].

Science.gov (United States)

van Gijn, J

2005-12-24

Chance events are part of everyday life, but coincidence of diseases often raises suspicions about hidden causes, for example when power lines are blamed for the geographical clustering of cancer. Recently, criminal procedures in the Netherlands have revolved around the question of whether statistical 'predictions' are a valid reason to hold a hospital nurse accountable for the occurrence of excess deaths during her duty hours, or a kindergarten employee for unexplained respiratory problems in several infants. In both cases, the appeals court judges did not accept the statistical 'argument' in the absence of other evidence. In the UK, however, Sally Clark's initial life sentence for the double murder of her 2 babies was largely based on 'probabilities in retrospect', put forward by the paediatrician Sir Roy Meadow as an expert witness. 4 years later she was acquitted, whereas Meadow was struck off the medical register on a charge of professional misconduct. There is no Bayesian or other mathematical solution to the problem of chance events. Only the detection of causal factors that are plausible and supported by new evidence can help to reinterpret coincidences as relationships. Scrupulous reasoning about probabilities is required, not only of physicians but also of judges and politicians.

Understanding interaction effects of climate change and fire management on bird distributions through combined process and habitat models

Science.gov (United States)

White, Joseph D.; Gutzwiller, Kevin J.; Barrow, Wylie C.; Johnson-Randall, Lori; Zygo, Lisa; Swint, Pamela

2011-01-01

Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process-based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf-area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species' use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.

Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events.

Science.gov (United States)

Stott, Peter A; Christidis, Nikolaos; Otto, Friederike E L; Sun, Ying; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Vautard, Robert; von Storch, Hans; Walton, Peter; Yiou, Pascal; Zwiers, Francis W

2016-01-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Nonstationarities in the occurrence rates of flood events in Portuguese watersheds

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A. T. Silva

2012-01-01

Full Text Available An exploratory analysis on the variability of flood occurrence rates in 10 Portuguese watersheds is made, to ascertain if that variability is concurrent with the principle of stationarity. A peaks-over-threshold (POT sampling technique is applied to 10 long series of mean daily streamflows and to 4 long series of daily rainfall in order to sample the times of occurrence (POT time data of the peak values of those series. The kernel occurrence rate estimator, coupled with a bootstrap approach, was applied to the POT time data to obtain the time dependent estimated occurrence rate curves, λrelative; margin-left: -0.45em; top: -0.3em;">ˆ(t, of floods and extreme rainfall events. The results of the analysis show that the occurrence of those events constitutes an inhomogeneous Poisson process, hence the occurrence rates are nonstationary. An attempt was made to assess whether the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO casted any influence on the occurrence rate of floods in the study area. Although further research is warranted, it was found that years with a less-than-average occurrence of floods tend to occur when the winter NAO is in the positive phase, and years with a higher occurrence of floods (more than twice the average tend to occur when the winter NAO is in the negative phase. Although the number of analyzed watersheds and their uneven spatial distribution hinders the generalization of the findings to the country scale, the authors conclude that the mathematical formulation of the flood frequency models relying on stationarity commonly employed in Portugal should be revised in order to account for possible nonstationarities in the occurrence rates of such events.

Optimum principle for a vehicular traffic network: minimum probability of congestion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kerner, Boris S, E-mail: boris.kerner@daimler.com [Daimler AG, GR/PTF, HPC: G021, 71059 Sindelfingen (Germany)

2011-03-04

We introduce an optimum principle for a vehicular traffic network with road bottlenecks. This network breakdown minimization (BM) principle states that the network optimum is reached when link flow rates are assigned in the network in such a way that the probability for spontaneous occurrence of traffic breakdown in at least one of the network bottlenecks during a given observation time reaches the minimum possible value. Based on numerical simulations with a stochastic three-phase traffic flow model, we show that in comparison to the well-known Wardrop's principles, the application of the BM principle permits considerably greater network inflow rates at which no traffic breakdown occurs and, therefore, free flow remains in the whole network. (fast track communication)

Erosividade das chuvas associada a períodos de retorno e probabilidade de ocorrência no estado do Rio de Janeiro Rainfall erosivity associated to return periods and occurrence probability in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roriz Luciano Machado

2013-04-01

Full Text Available O conhecimento da erosividade das chuvas associada à probabilidade de ocorrência e ao período de retorno pode contribuir para o planejamento conservacionista de uma região, em médio e longo prazo. A fim de gerar informações para melhor utilizar modelos e controle da erosão, dados de chuvas de 30 séries pluviográficas e pluviométricas, abrangendo 25 municípios, entre 1933 e 2006, foram estudados quanto à adequação das séries e do cálculo da probabilidade de ocorrência teórica (P e período de retorno (T da erosividade das chuvas (EI30 e KE>25, para o Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Foi feita a espacialização do potencial erosivo associado aos períodos de retorno de 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 e 100 anos para todo o Estado. A erosividade anual média (EI30 ou fator R da USLE para qualquer localidade no Estado do Rio de Janeiro pode ser igualada ou superada pelo menos uma vez, em média, em um período de 1,8 a 2,1 anos, com faixa de 48,5 a 54,9 % de probabilidade de ocorrência teórica. As localidades que apresentam maior erosividade associada aos períodos de retorno estão situadas nas mesorregiões Metropolitanas e em partes das mesorregiões Sul e Centro Fluminense. Foi possível identificar de oito a 12 regiões homogêneas, quanto à distribuição espacial da erosividade associada aos períodos de retorno de dois para 100 anos no Estado. De modo geral, a maior variação da distribuição espacial da erosividade apresenta-se na faixa de período de retorno de dois a cinco anos.Knowledge on rainfall erosivity associated to occurrence probability and return periods can contribute to conservation planning in the medium and long term. With the objective of generating information for a better use of medium and long-term erosion models and erosion control, rainfall data of 30 pluviometric and pluviographic data sets from 25 cities ranging from 1933 to 2006 were studied in terms of adjustment of data sets, calculation of the probability of

Calculating the Probability of Returning a Loan with Binary Probability Models

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Julian Vasilev

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to give a new approach in calculating the probability of returning a loan. A lot of factors affect the value of the probability. In this article by using statistical and econometric models some influencing factors are proved. The main approach is concerned with applying probit and logit models in loan management institutions. A new aspect of the credit risk analysis is given. Calculating the probability of returning a loan is a difficult task. We assume that specific data fields concerning the contract (month of signing, year of signing, given sum and data fields concerning the borrower of the loan (month of birth, year of birth (age, gender, region, where he/she lives may be independent variables in a binary logistics model with a dependent variable “the probability of returning a loan”. It is proved that the month of signing a contract, the year of signing a contract, the gender and the age of the loan owner do not affect the probability of returning a loan. It is proved that the probability of returning a loan depends on the sum of contract, the remoteness of the loan owner and the month of birth. The probability of returning a loan increases with the increase of the given sum, decreases with the proximity of the customer, increases for people born in the beginning of the year and decreases for people born at the end of the year.

Arsenic concentrations, related environmental factors, and the predicted probability of elevated arsenic in groundwater in Pennsylvania

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, Eliza L.; Low, Dennis J.

2013-01-01

Analytical results for arsenic in water samples from 5,023 wells obtained during 1969–2007 across Pennsylvania were compiled and related to other associated groundwater-quality and environmental factors and used to predict the probability of elevated arsenic concentrations, defined as greater than or equal to 4.0 micrograms per liter (µg/L), in groundwater. Arsenic concentrations of 4.0 µg/L or greater (elevated concentrations) were detected in 18 percent of samples across Pennsylvania; 8 percent of samples had concentrations that equaled or exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s drinking-water maximum contaminant level of 10.0 µg/L. The highest arsenic concentration was 490.0 µg/L.

Factors related to the occurrence of precocious menarche in female primary school students in Makassar

Science.gov (United States)

Renjani, Rizky Swastika; Mappaware, Nasrudin A.; Nontji, Werna; Marniati

2017-09-01

Precocious menarche currently affects 1 in 5000 girls and likely to occur as many as 10 times and possess greater risk to the emergence of cancer in women. The aim of this research is to determine the relationship of nutrition status and lipid profile with precocious menarche occurrence onstudents of primary school in Makassar city. The design of this research was cross sectional design. The samples werethe students of grades IV, V and VI who have already menarche occurrence as many as 20 studentscollected with purposive sampling. The data were analyzed with Mann Whitney U test. The results indicate that there are 17 students (85%) do not undergoprecocious menarche, normal nutrition status is 11 persons (55%), normal cholesterol levelis 12 persons (60%), and level of normal LDL = 19 persons (95%). While the respondents who undergo precocious menarche is 3 persons (15%), fat nutrition status is 9 persons (45%), cautious cholesterol level is 8 persons (40%) and cautious LDL level is 1 person (5%). Based on Mann Whitney U test, there is relationship between nutrition status and precocious menarche occurrence (p = 0.043) and there is correlation of total cholesterol and LDLcholesterollevelswith precocious menarche (p = 0.025) and (p = 0.017). The decrease of knowledge about health of reproduction can be promoted in school by making cooperation with nutritionist to give information to parents and students of primary schools about good and healthy food.

Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

Science.gov (United States)

Vaz, Teresa; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, Susana; Cruz Oliveira, Sérgio; Quaresma, Ivânia

2017-04-01

Rainfall is one of the most important triggering factors for landslides occurrence worldwide. The relation between rainfall and landslide occurrence is complex and some approaches have been focus on the rainfall thresholds identification, i.e., rainfall critical values that when exceeded can initiate landslide activity. In line with these approaches, this work proposes and validates rainfall thresholds for the Lisbon region (Portugal), using a centenary landslide database associated with a centenary daily rainfall database. The main objectives of the work are the following: i) to compute antecedent rainfall thresholds using linear and potential regression; ii) to define lower limit and upper limit rainfall thresholds; iii) to estimate the probability of critical rainfall conditions associated with landslide events; and iv) to assess the thresholds performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. In this study we consider the DISASTER database, which lists landslides that caused fatalities, injuries, missing people, evacuated and homeless people occurred in Portugal from 1865 to 2010. The DISASTER database was carried out exploring several Portuguese daily and weekly newspapers. Using the same newspaper sources, the DISASTER database was recently updated to include also the landslides that did not caused any human damage, which were also considered for this study. The daily rainfall data were collected at the Lisboa-Geofísico meteorological station. This station was selected considering the quality and completeness of the rainfall data, with records that started in 1864. The methodology adopted included the computation, for each landslide event, of the cumulative antecedent rainfall for different durations (1 to 90 consecutive days). In a second step, for each combination of rainfall quantity-duration, the return period was estimated using the Gumbel probability distribution. The pair (quantity-duration) with the highest return period was

Hand washing practices and the occurrence of enteropathogenic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... levels of compliance to hand washing and related this to the occurrence of infectious bacteria in the test population. A questionnaire which contained information on bio-demographic characteristics and hand hygiene practices was applied to 100 individuals in the study population. Microbiological samples were obtained, ...

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability

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Sen Phang

2015-12-01

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing.

Predicting the Occurrence of Oxygenation Impairment in Patients with Type-B Acute Aortic Dissection

Science.gov (United States)

Tomita, Kazunori; Hata, Noritake; Kobayashi, Nobuaki; Shinada, Takuro; Shirakabe, Akihiro

2014-01-01

Complicated respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation in patients with type-B acute aortic dissection (AAD) has been previously reported, and inflammatory reactions have been found to be associated with the occurrence of oxygenation impairment (OI). However, the possibility of predicting the occurrence of OI in patients with type-B AAD has not yet been evaluated. This study was performed to investigate the possibility of predicting the occurrence of OI in type-B AAD. In this study, 79 type-B AAD patients were enrolled to investigate the possibility of predicting the occurrence of OI. OI was defined as Po 2/Fio 2 ≤ 200. Patient characteristics, type of AAD, vital signs on admission, and the presence of inflammatory reactions obtained on admission day were evaluated. OI occurred in 39 patients (49%) on hospital day 2.5 ± 1.4 on average. Younger age, male gender, nonslender frame (body mass index ≥ 22 kg/m2), a relatively high maximum body temperature on the admission day (≥ 36.5°C), DeBakey IIIb type, patent false lumen, and lower Po 2/Fio 2 on admission were found to be associated with the occurrence of OI. Multivariate analysis revealed that nonslender frame, relatively high body temperature on the admission day, and lower Po 2/Fio 2 on admission were reliable for predicting the occurrence of oxygen impairment. The occurrence of OI in type-B AAD can be predicted in the clinical setting. PMID:24627618

Probability in physics

CERN Document Server

Hemmo, Meir

2012-01-01

What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

Constructing quantum games from symmetric non-factorizable joint probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chappell, James M.; Iqbal, Azhar; Abbott, Derek

2010-01-01

We construct quantum games from a table of non-factorizable joint probabilities, coupled with a symmetry constraint, requiring symmetrical payoffs between the players. We give the general result for a Nash equilibrium and payoff relations for a game based on non-factorizable joint probabilities, which embeds the classical game. We study a quantum version of Prisoners' Dilemma, Stag Hunt, and the Chicken game constructed from a given table of non-factorizable joint probabilities to find new outcomes in these games. We show that this approach provides a general framework for both classical and quantum games without recourse to the formalism of quantum mechanics.

Grammaticality, Acceptability, and Probability: A Probabilistic View of Linguistic Knowledge.

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, Jey Han; Clark, Alexander; Lappin, Shalom

2017-07-01

The question of whether humans represent grammatical knowledge as a binary condition on membership in a set of well-formed sentences, or as a probabilistic property has been the subject of debate among linguists, psychologists, and cognitive scientists for many decades. Acceptability judgments present a serious problem for both classical binary and probabilistic theories of grammaticality. These judgements are gradient in nature, and so cannot be directly accommodated in a binary formal grammar. However, it is also not possible to simply reduce acceptability to probability. The acceptability of a sentence is not the same as the likelihood of its occurrence, which is, in part, determined by factors like sentence length and lexical frequency. In this paper, we present the results of a set of large-scale experiments using crowd-sourced acceptability judgments that demonstrate gradience to be a pervasive feature in acceptability judgments. We then show how one can predict acceptability judgments on the basis of probability by augmenting probabilistic language models with an acceptability measure. This is a function that normalizes probability values to eliminate the confounding factors of length and lexical frequency. We describe a sequence of modeling experiments with unsupervised language models drawn from state-of-the-art machine learning methods in natural language processing. Several of these models achieve very encouraging levels of accuracy in the acceptability prediction task, as measured by the correlation between the acceptability measure scores and mean human acceptability values. We consider the relevance of these results to the debate on the nature of grammatical competence, and we argue that they support the view that linguistic knowledge can be intrinsically probabilistic. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Component fragility data base for reliability and probability studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bandyopadhyay, K.; Hofmayer, C.; Kassier, M.; Pepper, S.

1989-01-01

Safety-related equipment in a nuclear plant plays a vital role in its proper operation and control, and failure of such equipment due to an earthquake may pose a risk to the safe operation of the plant. Therefore, in order to assess the overall reliability of a plant, the reliability of performance of the equipment should be studied first. The success of a reliability or a probability study depends to a great extent on the data base. To meet this demand, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has formed a test data base relating the seismic capacity of equipment specimens to the earthquake levels. Subsequently, the test data have been analyzed for use in reliability and probability studies. This paper describes the data base and discusses the analysis methods. The final results that can be directly used in plant reliability and probability studies are also presented in this paper

First-passage Probability Estimation of an Earthquake Response of Seismically Isolated Containment Buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hahm, Dae-Gi; Park, Kwan-Soon; Koh, Hyun-Moo

2008-01-01

The awareness of a seismic hazard and risk is being increased rapidly according to the frequent occurrences of the huge earthquakes such as the 2008 Sichuan earthquake which caused about 70,000 confirmed casualties and a 20 billion U.S. dollars economic loss. Since an earthquake load contains various uncertainties naturally, the safety of a structural system under an earthquake excitation has been assessed by probabilistic approaches. In many structural applications for a probabilistic safety assessment, it is often regarded that the failure of a system will occur when the response of the structure firstly crosses the limit barrier within a specified interval of time. The determination of such a failure probability is usually called the 'first-passage problem' and has been extensively studied during the last few decades. However, especially for the structures which show a significant nonlinear dynamic behavior, an effective and accurate method for the estimation of such a failure probability is not fully established yet. In this study, we presented a new approach to evaluate the first-passage probability of an earthquake response of seismically isolated structures. The proposed method is applied to the seismic isolation system for the containment buildings of a nuclear power plant. From the numerical example, we verified that the proposed method shows accurate results with more efficient computational efforts compared to the conventional approaches

Report to Congress on abnormal occurrences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-06-01

Section 208 of the Energy Reorganization Act of 1974 identifies an abnormal occurrence as an unscheduled incident or event that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission determines to be significant from the standpoint of public health and safety and requires a quarterly report of such events to be made to Congress. This report covers the period January through March 1993. There is one abnormal occurrence at a nuclear power plant disposed in this report that involved a steam generator tube rupture at Palo Verde Unit 2, and none for fuel cycle facilities. Three abnormal occurrences involving medical misadminstrations (two therapeutic and one diagnostic) at NRC-licensed facilities are also discussed in this report. No abnormal occurrences were reported by NRC's Agreement States. The report also contains information updating previously reported abnormal occurrences

On Asymptotically Lacunary Statistical Equivalent Sequences of Order α in Probability

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Işık Mahmut

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, we introduce and examine the concepts of asymptotically lacunary statistical equivalent of order α in probability and strong asymptotically lacunary equivalent of order α in probability. We give some relations connected to these concepts.

An operational-oriented approach to the assessment of low probability seismic ground motions for critical infrastructures

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Fernandez, Mariano; Assatourians, Karen; Jimenez, Maria-Jose

2018-01-01

Extreme natural hazard events have the potential to cause significant disruption to critical infrastructure (CI) networks. Among them, earthquakes represent a major threat as sudden-onset events with limited, if any, capability of forecast, and high damage potential. In recent years, the increased exposure of interdependent systems has heightened concern, motivating the need for a framework for the management of these increased hazards. The seismic performance level and resilience of existing non-nuclear CIs can be analyzed by identifying the ground motion input values leading to failure of selected key elements. Main interest focuses on the ground motions exceeding the original design values, which should correspond to low probability occurrence. A seismic hazard methodology has been specifically developed to consider low-probability ground motions affecting elongated CI networks. The approach is based on Monte Carlo simulation, which allows for building long-duration synthetic earthquake catalogs to derive low-probability amplitudes. This approach does not affect the mean hazard values and allows obtaining a representation of maximum amplitudes that follow a general extreme-value distribution. This facilitates the analysis of the occurrence of extremes, i.e., very low probability of exceedance from unlikely combinations, for the development of, e.g., stress tests, among other applications. Following this methodology, extreme ground-motion scenarios have been developed for selected combinations of modeling inputs including seismic activity models (source model and magnitude-recurrence relationship), ground motion prediction equations (GMPE), hazard levels, and fractiles of extreme ground motion. The different results provide an overview of the effects of different hazard modeling inputs on the generated extreme motion hazard scenarios. This approach to seismic hazard is at the core of the risk analysis procedure developed and applied to European CI transport

Uncertainty the soul of modeling, probability & statistics

CERN Document Server

Briggs, William

2016-01-01

This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance". The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, suc...

Illustrating Probability through Roulette: A Spreadsheet Simulation Model

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Kala Chand Seal

2005-11-01

Full Text Available Teaching probability can be challenging because the mathematical formulas often are too abstract and complex for the students to fully grasp the underlying meaning and effect of the concepts. Games can provide a way to address this issue. For example, the game of roulette can be an exciting application for teaching probability concepts. In this paper, we implement a model of roulette in a spreadsheet that can simulate outcomes of various betting strategies. The simulations can be analyzed to gain better insights into the corresponding probability structures. We use the model to simulate a particular betting strategy known as the bet-doubling, or Martingale, strategy. This strategy is quite popular and is often erroneously perceived as a winning strategy even though the probability analysis shows that such a perception is incorrect. The simulation allows us to present the true implications of such a strategy for a player with a limited betting budget and relate the results to the underlying theoretical probability structure. The overall validation of the model, its use for teaching, including its application to analyze other types of betting strategies are discussed.

Multidetector computed tomographic pulmonary angiography in patients with a high clinical probability of pulmonary embolism.

Science.gov (United States)

Moores, L; Kline, J; Portillo, A K; Resano, S; Vicente, A; Arrieta, P; Corres, J; Tapson, V; Yusen, R D; Jiménez, D

2016-01-01

ESSENTIALS: When high probability of pulmonary embolism (PE), sensitivity of computed tomography (CT) is unclear. We investigated the sensitivity of multidetector CT among 134 patients with a high probability of PE. A normal CT alone may not safely exclude PE in patients with a high clinical pretest probability. In patients with no clear alternative diagnosis after CTPA, further testing should be strongly considered. Whether patients with a negative multidetector computed tomographic pulmonary angiography (CTPA) result and a high clinical pretest probability of pulmonary embolism (PE) should be further investigated is controversial. This was a prospective investigation of the sensitivity of multidetector CTPA among patients with a priori clinical assessment of a high probability of PE according to the Wells criteria. Among patients with a negative CTPA result, the diagnosis of PE required at least one of the following conditions: ventilation/perfusion lung scan showing a high probability of PE in a patient with no history of PE, abnormal findings on venous ultrasonography in a patient without previous deep vein thrombosis at that site, or the occurrence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in a 3-month follow-up period after anticoagulation was withheld because of a negative multidetector CTPA result. We identified 498 patients with a priori clinical assessment of a high probability of PE and a completed CTPA study. CTPA excluded PE in 134 patients; in these patients, the pooled incidence of VTE was 5.2% (seven of 134 patients; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5-9.0). Five patients had VTEs that were confirmed by an additional imaging test despite a negative CTPA result (five of 48 patients; 10.4%; 95% CI 1.8-19.1), and two patients had objectively confirmed VTEs that occurred during clinical follow-up of at least 3 months (two of 86 patients; 2.3%; 95% CI 0-5.5). None of the patients had a fatal PE during follow-up. A normal multidetector CTPA result alone may not safely

Schema bias in source monitoring varies with encoding conditions: support for a probability-matching account.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuhlmann, Beatrice G; Vaterrodt, Bianca; Bayen, Ute J

2012-09-01

Two experiments examined reliance on schematic knowledge in source monitoring. Based on a probability-matching account of source guessing, a schema bias will only emerge if participants do not have a representation of the source-item contingency in the study list, or if the perceived contingency is consistent with schematic expectations. Thus, the account predicts that encoding conditions that affect contingency detection also affect schema bias. In Experiment 1, the schema bias commonly found when schematic information about the sources is not provided before encoding was diminished by an intentional source-memory instruction. In Experiment 2, the depth of processing of schema-consistent and schema-inconsistent source-item pairings was manipulated. Participants consequently overestimated the occurrence of the pairing type they processed in a deep manner, and their source guessing reflected this biased contingency perception. Results support the probability-matching account of source guessing. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Performance and separation occurrence of binary probit regression estimator using maximum likelihood method and Firths approach under different sample size

Science.gov (United States)

Lusiana, Evellin Dewi

2017-12-01

The parameters of binary probit regression model are commonly estimated by using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. However, MLE method has limitation if the binary data contains separation. Separation is the condition where there are one or several independent variables that exactly grouped the categories in binary response. It will result the estimators of MLE method become non-convergent, so that they cannot be used in modeling. One of the effort to resolve the separation is using Firths approach instead. This research has two aims. First, to identify the chance of separation occurrence in binary probit regression model between MLE method and Firths approach. Second, to compare the performance of binary probit regression model estimator that obtained by MLE method and Firths approach using RMSE criteria. Those are performed using simulation method and under different sample size. The results showed that the chance of separation occurrence in MLE method for small sample size is higher than Firths approach. On the other hand, for larger sample size, the probability decreased and relatively identic between MLE method and Firths approach. Meanwhile, Firths estimators have smaller RMSE than MLEs especially for smaller sample sizes. But for larger sample sizes, the RMSEs are not much different. It means that Firths estimators outperformed MLE estimator.

Occurrence and biogeographic aspects of Melipona quinquefasciata in NE Brazil (Hymenoptera, Apidae

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LIMA-VERDE L. W.

2002-01-01

Full Text Available The stingless bee Melipona quinquefasciata is not included among the nine bee species of Melipona described in literature of NE Brazil. However, reports of some farmers raised suspicion on the occurrence of M. quinquefasciata in the state of Ceará, in NE Brazil. Investigations were carried out from July 1997 to September 2000, by means of trips to the areas of probable occurrence of this bee species. Results confirmed the presence of M. quinquefasciata in Ceará and determined its habitat along the chapada do Araripe (Araripe plateau and all extension of planalto da Ibiapaba (Ibiapaba plateau, in altitudes between 600 and 900 m. Melipona quinquefasciata lives in the phytocoenosis of cerrado (Brazilian savanna, cerradão (savanna forest and carrasco (montane deciduous shrub vegetation on the top of Araripe plateau, and only carrasco in the Ibiapaba plateau. Due to pressures caused by reduction of the area covered with native vegetation, large use of agrochemicals in anthropic areas and generalised predatory hunting of honey and beeswax, M. quinquefasciata is in risk of disappearing from the ecosystems of Araripe and Ibiapaba plateaus within a few years.

Occurrence and biogeographic aspects of Melipona quinquefasciata in NE Brazil (Hymenoptera, Apidae

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. W. LIMA-VERDE

Full Text Available The stingless bee Melipona quinquefasciata is not included among the nine bee species of Melipona described in literature of NE Brazil. However, reports of some farmers raised suspicion on the occurrence of M. quinquefasciata in the state of Ceará, in NE Brazil. Investigations were carried out from July 1997 to September 2000, by means of trips to the areas of probable occurrence of this bee species. Results confirmed the presence of M. quinquefasciata in Ceará and determined its habitat along the chapada do Araripe (Araripe plateau and all extension of planalto da Ibiapaba (Ibiapaba plateau, in altitudes between 600 and 900 m. Melipona quinquefasciata lives in the phytocoenosis of cerrado (Brazilian savanna, cerradão (savanna forest and carrasco (montane deciduous shrub vegetation on the top of Araripe plateau, and only carrasco in the Ibiapaba plateau. Due to pressures caused by reduction of the area covered with native vegetation, large use of agrochemicals in anthropic areas and generalised predatory hunting of honey and beeswax, M. quinquefasciata is in risk of disappearing from the ecosystems of Araripe and Ibiapaba plateaus within a few years.

Probability for statisticians

CERN Document Server

Shorack, Galen R

2017-01-01

This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

Tuned by experience: How orientation probability modulates early perceptual processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Jabar, Syaheed B; Filipowicz, Alex; Anderson, Britt

2017-09-01

Probable stimuli are more often and more quickly detected. While stimulus probability is known to affect decision-making, it can also be explained as a perceptual phenomenon. Using spatial gratings, we have previously shown that probable orientations are also more precisely estimated, even while participants remained naive to the manipulation. We conducted an electrophysiological study to investigate the effect that probability has on perception and visual-evoked potentials. In line with previous studies on oddballs and stimulus prevalence, low-probability orientations were associated with a greater late positive 'P300' component which might be related to either surprise or decision-making. However, the early 'C1' component, thought to reflect V1 processing, was dampened for high-probability orientations while later P1 and N1 components were unaffected. Exploratory analyses revealed a participant-level correlation between C1 and P300 amplitudes, suggesting a link between perceptual processing and decision-making. We discuss how these probability effects could be indicative of sharpening of neurons preferring the probable orientations, due either to perceptual learning, or to feature-based attention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Occurrence of Urban Mosquitos Based on Land Use Types and Meteorological Factors in Korea

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Yong-Su Kwon

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Mosquitoes are a public health concern because they are vectors of pathogen, which cause human-related diseases. It is well known that the occurrence of mosquitoes is highly influenced by meteorological conditions (e.g., temperature and precipitation and land use, but there are insufficient studies quantifying their impacts. Therefore, three analytical methods were applied to determine the relationships between urban mosquito occurrence, land use type, and meteorological factors: cluster analysis based on land use types; principal component analysis (PCA based on mosquito occurrence; and three prediction models, support vector machine (SVM, classification and regression tree (CART, and random forest (RF. We used mosquito data collected at 12 sites from 2011 to 2012. Mosquito abundance was highest from August to September in both years. The monitoring sites were differentiated into three clusters based on differences in land use type such as culture and sport areas, inland water, artificial grasslands, and traffic areas. These clusters were well reflected in PCA ordinations, indicating that mosquito occurrence was highly influenced by land use types. Lastly, the RF represented the highest predictive power for mosquito occurrence and temperature-related factors were the most influential. Our study will contribute to effective control and management of mosquito occurrences.

Report to Congress on abnormal occurrences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-10-01

Section 208 of the Energy Reorganization Act of 1974 identifies an abnormal occurrence as an unscheduled incident or event that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission determines to be significant from the standpoint of public health or safety and requires a quarterly report of such events to be made to Congress. This report covers the period from April 1 through June 30, 1990. The report discusses six abnormal occurrences, none involving a nuclear power plant. There were five abnormal occurrences at NRC licensees: (1) deficiencies in brachytherapy program; (2) a radiation overexposure of a radiographer; (3) a medical diagnostic misadministration; (4) administration of iodine-131 to a lactating female with subsequent uptake by her infant; and (5) a medical therapy misadministration. An Agreement State (Arizona) reported an abnormal occurrence involving a medical diagnostic misadministration. The report also contains information that updates a previously reported occurrence

Mycotoxin occurrence in maize produced in Northern Italy over the years 2009–2011: focus on the role of crop related factors

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Marco CAMARDO LEGGIERI

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The occurrence of mycotoxins associated with Fusarium spp. and Aspergillus flavus in Northern Italy, and the role of cropping systems, were investigated on 140 field samples collected over the years 2009–2011. Samples were analysed for fumonisins B1 and B2 (FBs, aflatoxins B1, B2, G1 and G2 (AFs, deoxynivalenol (DON and zearalenone (ZEN using validated analytical methods. Information on: maize hybrid, preceding crop, tillage applied, mineral nutrition, pest and disease control, severity of European Corn Borer (ECB attack, sowing and harvesting dates, kernel moisture at harvesting and longitude of the sampled province, were also collected. During this period there were distinct differences in FBs and AFs concentrations between years and geographic origins, and very low contamination with DON and ZEN was always found. The incidence of AFs exceeded 75% across all samples, and was almost 100% for FBs. The meteorological trends were quite different in the 3 years surveyed. 2009 was the coldest in June and the warmest in August, 2010 the most humid, and in 2011 cold weather occurred during flowering and dry conditions during ripening. The run of a logistic equation with the backward stepwise approach selected three parameters, (seeding week, ECB severity and longitude of sampling province to predict AFB1 contamination and four parameters (year, sowing week, ECB severity and longitude of sampling province to predict FB contamination. The internal validation gave good results, with 76% correct predictions. The probability of harvesting maize with more than 5 µg kg-1 of AFB1 varied between 86 and 5%, and the probability of harvesting maize with more than 4,000 µg kg-1 of FBs varied between 81 and 2%, respectively, for conducive and non-conducive environments. Therefore, considerable variability was found even if a limited area and only 3 years were considered.

New exponential, logarithm and q-probability in the non-extensive statistical physics

OpenAIRE

Chung, Won Sang

2013-01-01

In this paper, a new exponential and logarithm related to the non-extensive statistical physics is proposed by using the q-sum and q-product which satisfy the distributivity. And we discuss the q-mapping from an ordinary probability to q-probability. The q-entropy defined by the idea of q-probability is shown to be q-additive.

Probability of satellite collision

Science.gov (United States)

Mccarter, J. W.

1972-01-01

A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

Real analysis and probability

CERN Document Server

Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

1972-01-01

Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

Probability and Measure

CERN Document Server

Billingsley, Patrick

2012-01-01

Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

Environmental DNA (eDNA sampling improves occurrence and detection estimates of invasive burmese pythons.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Margaret E Hunter

Full Text Available Environmental DNA (eDNA methods are used to detect DNA that is shed into the aquatic environment by cryptic or low density species. Applied in eDNA studies, occupancy models can be used to estimate occurrence and detection probabilities and thereby account for imperfect detection. However, occupancy terminology has been applied inconsistently in eDNA studies, and many have calculated occurrence probabilities while not considering the effects of imperfect detection. Low detection of invasive giant constrictors using visual surveys and traps has hampered the estimation of occupancy and detection estimates needed for population management in southern Florida, USA. Giant constrictor snakes pose a threat to native species and the ecological restoration of the Florida Everglades. To assist with detection, we developed species-specific eDNA assays using quantitative PCR (qPCR for the Burmese python (Python molurus bivittatus, Northern African python (P. sebae, boa constrictor (Boa constrictor, and the green (Eunectes murinus and yellow anaconda (E. notaeus. Burmese pythons, Northern African pythons, and boa constrictors are established and reproducing, while the green and yellow anaconda have the potential to become established. We validated the python and boa constrictor assays using laboratory trials and tested all species in 21 field locations distributed in eight southern Florida regions. Burmese python eDNA was detected in 37 of 63 field sampling events; however, the other species were not detected. Although eDNA was heterogeneously distributed in the environment, occupancy models were able to provide the first estimates of detection probabilities, which were greater than 91%. Burmese python eDNA was detected along the leading northern edge of the known population boundary. The development of informative detection tools and eDNA occupancy models can improve conservation efforts in southern Florida and support more extensive studies of invasive

Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling improves occurrence and detection estimates of invasive burmese pythons.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, Margaret E; Oyler-McCance, Sara J; Dorazio, Robert M; Fike, Jennifer A; Smith, Brian J; Hunter, Charles T; Reed, Robert N; Hart, Kristen M

2015-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) methods are used to detect DNA that is shed into the aquatic environment by cryptic or low density species. Applied in eDNA studies, occupancy models can be used to estimate occurrence and detection probabilities and thereby account for imperfect detection. However, occupancy terminology has been applied inconsistently in eDNA studies, and many have calculated occurrence probabilities while not considering the effects of imperfect detection. Low detection of invasive giant constrictors using visual surveys and traps has hampered the estimation of occupancy and detection estimates needed for population management in southern Florida, USA. Giant constrictor snakes pose a threat to native species and the ecological restoration of the Florida Everglades. To assist with detection, we developed species-specific eDNA assays using quantitative PCR (qPCR) for the Burmese python (Python molurus bivittatus), Northern African python (P. sebae), boa constrictor (Boa constrictor), and the green (Eunectes murinus) and yellow anaconda (E. notaeus). Burmese pythons, Northern African pythons, and boa constrictors are established and reproducing, while the green and yellow anaconda have the potential to become established. We validated the python and boa constrictor assays using laboratory trials and tested all species in 21 field locations distributed in eight southern Florida regions. Burmese python eDNA was detected in 37 of 63 field sampling events; however, the other species were not detected. Although eDNA was heterogeneously distributed in the environment, occupancy models were able to provide the first estimates of detection probabilities, which were greater than 91%. Burmese python eDNA was detected along the leading northern edge of the known population boundary. The development of informative detection tools and eDNA occupancy models can improve conservation efforts in southern Florida and support more extensive studies of invasive constrictors

Extraction of temporal networks from term co-occurrences in online textual sources.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marko Popović

Full Text Available A stream of unstructured news can be a valuable source of hidden relations between different entities, such as financial institutions, countries, or persons. We present an approach to continuously collect online news, recognize relevant entities in them, and extract time-varying networks. The nodes of the network are the entities, and the links are their co-occurrences. We present a method to estimate the significance of co-occurrences, and a benchmark model against which their robustness is evaluated. The approach is applied to a large set of financial news, collected over a period of two years. The entities we consider are 50 countries which issue sovereign bonds, and which are insured by Credit Default Swaps (CDS in turn. We compare the country co-occurrence networks to the CDS networks constructed from the correlations between the CDS. The results show relatively small, but significant overlap between the networks extracted from the news and those from the CDS correlations.

Experimental Probability in Elementary School

Science.gov (United States)

Andrew, Lane

2009-01-01

Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

Constructing quantum games from symmetric non-factorizable joint probabilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chappell, James M., E-mail: james.m.chappell@adelaide.edu.a [School of Chemistry and Physics, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005 (Australia); School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005 (Australia); Iqbal, Azhar [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005 (Australia); Centre for Advanced Mathematics and Physics, National University of Sciences and Technology, Peshawar Road, Rawalpindi (Pakistan); Abbott, Derek [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005 (Australia)

2010-09-06

We construct quantum games from a table of non-factorizable joint probabilities, coupled with a symmetry constraint, requiring symmetrical payoffs between the players. We give the general result for a Nash equilibrium and payoff relations for a game based on non-factorizable joint probabilities, which embeds the classical game. We study a quantum version of Prisoners' Dilemma, Stag Hunt, and the Chicken game constructed from a given table of non-factorizable joint probabilities to find new outcomes in these games. We show that this approach provides a general framework for both classical and quantum games without recourse to the formalism of quantum mechanics.

Expert study to select indicators of the occurrence of emerging mycotoxin hazards.

Science.gov (United States)

Kandhai, M C; Booij, C J H; Van der Fels-Klerx, H J

2011-01-01

This article describes a Delphi-based expert judgment study aimed at the selection of indicators to identify the occurrence of emerging mycotoxin hazards related to Fusarium spp. in wheat supply chains. A panel of 29 experts from 12 European countries followed a holistic approach to evaluate the most important indicators for different chain stages (growth, transport and storage, and processing) and their relative importance. After three e-mailing rounds, the experts reached consensus on the most important indicators for each of the three stages: wheat growth, transport and storage, and processing. For wheat growth, these indicators include: relative humidity/rainfall, crop rotation, temperature, tillage practice, water activity of the kernels, and crop variety/cultivar. For the transport and storage stage, they include water activity in the kernels, relative humidity, ventilation, temperature, storage capacity, and logistics. For wheat processing, indicators include quality data, fraction of the cereal used, water activity in the kernels, quality management and traceability systems, and carryover of contamination. The indicators selected in this study can be used in an identification system for the occurrence of emerging mycotoxin hazards in wheat supply chains. Such a system can be used by risk managers within governmental (related) organizations and/or the food and feed industry in order to react proactively to the occurrence of these emerging mycotoxins. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

FACTORS INFLUENCING THE OCCURRENCE OF HYPERTROPHIC SCARS AMONG POSTOPERATIVE PATIENTS IN GARUT, INDONESIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andri Nugraha

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Background: Hypertrophic scar causes physical and psychological problems. Thus understanding the factors related to the occurrence of hypertrophic scar tissue is needed. Little is known about its influencing factors in Indonesia, especially in Garut. Objective: This study aims to examine the relationships between hypertrophic scar and its influencing factors, and identify the most dominant factor of the occurrence of hypertrophic scars. Methods: This was an observational case control study using retrospective approach in Polyclinic of Surgery of Regional Public Hospital of dr. Slamet of Garut Regency. There were 40 samples recruited in this study by purposive sampling, which was divided to be case group (20 patients and control group (20 patients. Data were collected using Stony Brook Scar Evaluation Scale by observation and documentation of the medical records of patients. Data were analyzed using logistic regression analysis Results: Findings indicated that there were significant relationships between the surgical wound infection (p = 0.02, family history (p = 0.026, and type of suture (p = 0.043 with the occurrence of hypertrophic scars. The most dominant factor on the occurrence of hypertrophic scars was type of suture, acid polyglactin 910. The variables that had no significant relationships with the occurrence of hypertrophic scar tissue were age (p = 0.34, area of surgical wound (p = 0.177, and smoking habit (p = 0.479. Conclusion: There were significant relationships between infection of surgical wound, genetic history, the type of suture, and the occurrence of hypertrophic scar tissue. The most dominant factor that influenced the occurrence of hypertrophic scar tissue was the type of suture. Therefore, it is suggested to health professionals to modify the using of acid polyglactin 910 sutures, and nurses particularly need to provide the information regarding the family history and genetic-related hypertrophic scar, and prevent the

Probabilities in physics

CERN Document Server

Hartmann, Stephan

2011-01-01

Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

Probability an introduction

CERN Document Server

Grimmett, Geoffrey

2014-01-01

Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

Probabilities and Shannon's Entropy in the Everett Many-Worlds Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Wichert

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Following a controversial suggestion by David Deutsch that decision theory can solve the problem of probabilities in the Everett many-worlds we suggest that the probabilities are induced by Shannon's entropy that measures the uncertainty of events. We argue that a relational person prefers certainty to uncertainty due to fundamental biological principle of homeostasis.

Quantum probability, choice in large worlds, and the statistical structure of reality.

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Don; Ladyman, James

2013-06-01

Classical probability models of incentive response are inadequate in "large worlds," where the dimensions of relative risk and the dimensions of similarity in outcome comparisons typically differ. Quantum probability models for choice in large worlds may be motivated pragmatically - there is no third theory - or metaphysically: statistical processing in the brain adapts to the true scale-relative structure of the universe.

Time Dependence of Collision Probabilities During Satellite Conjunctions

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Doyle T.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.

2017-01-01

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team has recently implemented updated software to calculate the probability of collision (P (sub c)) for Earth-orbiting satellites. The algorithm can employ complex dynamical models for orbital motion, and account for the effects of non-linear trajectories as well as both position and velocity uncertainties. This “3D P (sub c)” method entails computing a 3-dimensional numerical integral for each estimated probability. Our analysis indicates that the 3D method provides several new insights over the traditional “2D P (sub c)” method, even when approximating the orbital motion using the relatively simple Keplerian two-body dynamical model. First, the formulation provides the means to estimate variations in the time derivative of the collision probability, or the probability rate, R (sub c). For close-proximity satellites, such as those orbiting in formations or clusters, R (sub c) variations can show multiple peaks that repeat or blend with one another, providing insight into the ongoing temporal distribution of risk. For single, isolated conjunctions, R (sub c) analysis provides the means to identify and bound the times of peak collision risk. Additionally, analysis of multiple actual archived conjunctions demonstrates that the commonly used “2D P (sub c)” approximation can occasionally provide inaccurate estimates. These include cases in which the 2D method yields negligibly small probabilities (e.g., P (sub c)) is greater than 10 (sup -10)), but the 3D estimates are sufficiently large to prompt increased monitoring or collision mitigation (e.g., P (sub c) is greater than or equal to 10 (sup -5)). Finally, the archive analysis indicates that a relatively efficient calculation can be used to identify which conjunctions will have negligibly small probabilities. This small-P (sub c) screening test can significantly speed the overall risk analysis computation for large numbers of conjunctions.

Estimating negative binomial parameters from occurrence data with detection times.

Science.gov (United States)

Hwang, Wen-Han; Huggins, Richard; Stoklosa, Jakub

2016-11-01

The negative binomial distribution is a common model for the analysis of count data in biology and ecology. In many applications, we may not observe the complete frequency count in a quadrat but only that a species occurred in the quadrat. If only occurrence data are available then the two parameters of the negative binomial distribution, the aggregation index and the mean, are not identifiable. This can be overcome by data augmentation or through modeling the dependence between quadrat occupancies. Here, we propose to record the (first) detection time while collecting occurrence data in a quadrat. We show that under what we call proportionate sampling, where the time to survey a region is proportional to the area of the region, that both negative binomial parameters are estimable. When the mean parameter is larger than two, our proposed approach is more efficient than the data augmentation method developed by Solow and Smith (, Am. Nat. 176, 96-98), and in general is cheaper to conduct. We also investigate the effect of misidentification when collecting negative binomially distributed data, and conclude that, in general, the effect can be simply adjusted for provided that the mean and variance of misidentification probabilities are known. The results are demonstrated in a simulation study and illustrated in several real examples. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Error probabilities in default Bayesian hypothesis testing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gu, Xin; Hoijtink, Herbert; Mulder, J,

2016-01-01

This paper investigates the classical type I and type II error probabilities of default Bayes factors for a Bayesian t test. Default Bayes factors quantify the relative evidence between the null hypothesis and the unrestricted alternative hypothesis without needing to specify prior distributions for

Pade approximant calculations for neutron escape probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Wakil, S.A.; Saad, E.A.; Hendi, A.A.

1984-07-01

The neutron escape probability from a non-multiplying slab containing internal source is defined in terms of a functional relation for the scattering function for the diffuse reflection problem. The Pade approximant technique is used to get numerical results which compare with exact results. (author)

On accounting difficulties: risks related to nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Plot, E.; Vidal, O.

2014-01-01

An extreme risk has a very slight probability but potentially heavy consequences. Despite the existence of 3 accountancy methods for dealing with them (provisions, contingent liabilities and insurance), the transposition of such risks into financial statements is based on a sequential analysis of both the probability of the risk happening and the ability to estimate the effects. This method keeps us from taking into account risks with a highly uncertain probability of occurrence, such as accidents at nuclear power plants - independently of the 'amount' at stake. As management reports from firms concerned by nuclear risks show, the diffusion of qualitative information does not offset this gap in bookkeeping. (authors)

On accounting difficulties: Risks related to nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Plot, Emmanuelle; Vidal, Olivier

2014-01-01

An extreme risk has a very slight probability but potentially heavy consequences. Despite the existence of three accountancy methods for dealing with them (provisions, contingent liabilities and insurance), the transposition of such risks into financial statements is based on a sequential analysis of both the probability of the risk happening and the ability to estimate the effects. This method keeps us from taking into account risks with a highly uncertain probability of occurrence, such as accidents at nuclear power plants - independently of the 'amount' at stake. As management reports from firms concerned by nuclear risks show, the diffusion of qualitative information does not offset this gap in bookkeeping

Introduction to probability

CERN Document Server

Freund, John E

1993-01-01

Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

Surficial uranium occurrences in relation to climate and physical setting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlisle, D.

1984-01-01

Important surficial chemogenic uranium deposits develop within 1) calcretes, 2) simple evaporative environments and 3) bogs or similar organic environments (''young'' uranium). Calcrete occurrences are the largest, most novel and most dependent upon extreme aridity and geomorphic stability. Economic calcrete deposits are nonpedogenic, resulting from near-surface groundwater transport and lateral concentration of uranium, vanadium, potassium, calcium, and magnesium rather than from ordinary soil-forming processes. Their genesis is essentially observable in Western Australia where carnotite-bearing nonpedogenic calcrete is currently forming under a unique aridic soil moisture regime and where major deposits have formed under similar climates during the last few thousand years. Rainfall is less than 250mm annually, only 1/12 to 1/20 of potential evaporation and concentrated almost entirely in episodic late summer storms. Outside this region, under less arid conditions, only pedogenic calcretes form and they do not contain economic uranium. In southern Africa, calcrete and gypcrete uranium deposits, although Late Tertiary to Quaternary in age, are also nonpedogenic and appear to have formed under similar climatic constraints with local variations in geomorphology and calcrete morphology. (author)

Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Matt Davies

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2.

Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires.

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, G Matt; Legg, Colin J

2016-01-01

Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system) to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2.

Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

CERN Document Server

Dworsky, Lawrence N

2008-01-01

An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

Risk Probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

Off-diagonal long-range order, cycle probabilities, and condensate fraction in the ideal Bose gas.

Science.gov (United States)

Chevallier, Maguelonne; Krauth, Werner

2007-11-01

We discuss the relationship between the cycle probabilities in the path-integral representation of the ideal Bose gas, off-diagonal long-range order, and Bose-Einstein condensation. Starting from the Landsberg recursion relation for the canonic partition function, we use elementary considerations to show that in a box of size L3 the sum of the cycle probabilities of length k>L2 equals the off-diagonal long-range order parameter in the thermodynamic limit. For arbitrary systems of ideal bosons, the integer derivative of the cycle probabilities is related to the probability of condensing k bosons. We use this relation to derive the precise form of the pik in the thermodynamic limit. We also determine the function pik for arbitrary systems. Furthermore, we use the cycle probabilities to compute the probability distribution of the maximum-length cycles both at T=0, where the ideal Bose gas reduces to the study of random permutations, and at finite temperature. We close with comments on the cycle probabilities in interacting Bose gases.

[Drivers of human-caused fire occurrence and its variation trend under climate change in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeast China].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shun; Wu, Zhi Wei; Liang, Yu; He, Hong Shi

2017-01-01

The Great Xing'an Mountains are an important boreal forest region in China with high frequency of fire occurrences. With climate change, this region may have a substantial change in fire frequency. Building the relationship between spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors, and predicting the spatial patterns of human-caused fires under climate change scenarios are important for fire management and carbon balance in boreal forests. We employed a spatial point pattern model to explore the relationship between the spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors based on a database of historical fire records (1967-2006) in the Great Xing'an Mountains. The fire occurrence time was used as dependent variable. Nine abiotic (annual temperature and precipitation, elevation, aspect, and slope), biotic (vegetation type), and human factors (distance to the nearest road, road density, and distance to the nearest settlement) were selected as explanatory variables. We substituted the climate scenario data (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for the current climate data to predict the future spatial patterns of human-caused fire occurrence in 2050. Our results showed that the point pattern progress (PPP) model was an effective tool to predict the future relationship between fire occurrence and its spatial covariates. The climatic variables might significantly affect human-caused fire occurrence, while vegetation type, elevation and human variables were important predictors of human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence probability was expected to increase in the south of the area, and the north and the area along the main roads would also become areas with high human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence would increase by 72.2% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and by 166.7% under the RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050. Under climate change scenarios, the spatial patterns of human-caused fires were mainly

Sufficient Statistics for Divergence and the Probability of Misclassification

Science.gov (United States)

Quirein, J.

1972-01-01

One particular aspect is considered of the feature selection problem which results from the transformation x=Bz, where B is a k by n matrix of rank k and k is or = to n. It is shown that in general, such a transformation results in a loss of information. In terms of the divergence, this is equivalent to the fact that the average divergence computed using the variable x is less than or equal to the average divergence computed using the variable z. A loss of information in terms of the probability of misclassification is shown to be equivalent to the fact that the probability of misclassification computed using variable x is greater than or equal to the probability of misclassification computed using variable z. First, the necessary facts relating k-dimensional and n-dimensional integrals are derived. Then the mentioned results about the divergence and probability of misclassification are derived. Finally it is shown that if no information is lost (in x = Bz) as measured by the divergence, then no information is lost as measured by the probability of misclassification.

Fractal supersymmetric QM, Geometric Probability and the Riemann Hypothesis

CERN Document Server

Castro, C

2004-01-01

The Riemann's hypothesis (RH) states that the nontrivial zeros of the Riemann zeta-function are of the form $ s_n =1/2+i\\lambda_n $. Earlier work on the RH based on supersymmetric QM, whose potential was related to the Gauss-Jacobi theta series, allows to provide the proper framework to construct the well defined algorithm to compute the probability to find a zero (an infinity of zeros) in the critical line. Geometric probability theory furnishes the answer to the very difficult question whether the probability that the RH is true is indeed equal to unity or not. To test the validity of this geometric probabilistic framework to compute the probability if the RH is true, we apply it directly to the the hyperbolic sine function $ \\sinh (s) $ case which obeys a trivial analog of the RH (the HSRH). Its zeros are equally spaced in the imaginary axis $ s_n = 0 + i n \\pi $. The geometric probability to find a zero (and an infinity of zeros) in the imaginary axis is exactly unity. We proceed with a fractal supersymme...

Targeting the probability versus cost of feared outcomes in public speaking anxiety.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Elizabeth A; Deacon, Brett J; Lickel, James J; Sy, Jennifer T

2010-04-01

Cognitive-behavioral theory suggests that social phobia is maintained, in part, by overestimates of the probability and cost of negative social events. Indeed, empirically supported cognitive-behavioral treatments directly target these cognitive biases through the use of in vivo exposure or behavioral experiments. While cognitive-behavioral theories and treatment protocols emphasize the importance of targeting probability and cost biases in the reduction of social anxiety, few studies have examined specific techniques for reducing probability and cost bias, and thus the relative efficacy of exposure to the probability versus cost of negative social events is unknown. In the present study, 37 undergraduates with high public speaking anxiety were randomly assigned to a single-session intervention designed to reduce either the perceived probability or the perceived cost of negative outcomes associated with public speaking. Compared to participants in the probability treatment condition, those in the cost treatment condition demonstrated significantly greater improvement on measures of public speaking anxiety and cost estimates for negative social events. The superior efficacy of the cost treatment condition was mediated by greater treatment-related changes in social cost estimates. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Novel Occurrence of Uncommon Polyamines in Higher Plants 1

Science.gov (United States)

Kuehn, Glenn D.; Rodriguez-Garay, Benjamin; Bagga, Suman; Phillips, Gregory C.

1990-01-01

Diamines and polyamines are ubiquitous components of living cells, and apparently are involved in numerous cellular and physiological processes. Certain “uncommon” polyamines have limited distribution in nature and have been associated primarily with organisms adapted to extreme environments, although the precise function of these polyamines in such organisms is unknown. This article summarizes current knowledge regarding the occurrence in higher plants of the uncommon polyamines related to and including norspermidine and norspermine. A putative biosynthetic pathway to account for the occurrences of these uncommon polyamines in higher plants is presented, with a summary of the supporting evidence indicating the existence of the requisite enzymatic activities in alfalfa, Medicago sativa L. PMID:16667862

Risk analysis for roadways subjected to multiple landslide-related hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Corominas, Jordi; Mavrouli, Olga

2014-05-01

Roadways through mountainous terrain often involve cuts and landslide areas whose stability is precarious and require protection and stabilization works. To optimize the allocation of resources, government and technical offices are increasingly interested in both the risk analysis and assessment. Risk analysis has to consider the hazard occurrence and the consequences. The consequences can be both direct and indirect. The former include the costs regarding the repair of the roadway, the damage of vehicles and the potential fatalities, while the latter refer to the costs related to the diversion of vehicles, the excess of distance travelled, the time differences, and tolls. The type of slope instabilities that may affect a roadway may vary and its effects as well. Most current approaches either consider a single hazardous phenomenon each time, or if applied at small (for example national) scale, they do not take into account local conditions at each section of the roadway. The objective of this work is the development of a simple and comprehensive methodology for the assessment of the risk due to multiple hazards along roadways, integrating different landslide types that include rockfalls, debris flows and considering as well the potential failure of retaining walls. To quantify risk, all hazards are expressed with a common term: their probability of occurrence. The methodology takes into consideration the specific local conditions along the roadway. For rockfalls and debris flow a variety of methods for assessing the probability of occurrence exists. To assess the annual probability of failure of retaining walls we use an indicator-based model that provides a hazard index. The model parameters consist in the design safety factor, and further anchorage design and construction parameters. The probability of failure is evaluated in function of the hazard index and next corrected (in terms of order of magnitude) according to in situ observations for increase of two

Establishment probability in newly founded populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gusset Markus

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Establishment success in newly founded populations relies on reaching the established phase, which is defined by characteristic fluctuations of the population’s state variables. Stochastic population models can be used to quantify the establishment probability of newly founded populations; however, so far no simple but robust method for doing so existed. To determine a critical initial number of individuals that need to be released to reach the established phase, we used a novel application of the “Wissel plot”, where –ln(1 – P0(t is plotted against time t. This plot is based on the equation P0t=1–c1e–ω1t, which relates the probability of extinction by time t, P0(t, to two constants: c1 describes the probability of a newly founded population to reach the established phase, whereas ω1 describes the population’s probability of extinction per short time interval once established. Results For illustration, we applied the method to a previously developed stochastic population model of the endangered African wild dog (Lycaon pictus. A newly founded population reaches the established phase if the intercept of the (extrapolated linear parts of the “Wissel plot” with the y-axis, which is –ln(c1, is negative. For wild dogs in our model, this is the case if a critical initial number of four packs, consisting of eight individuals each, are released. Conclusions The method we present to quantify the establishment probability of newly founded populations is generic and inferences thus are transferable to other systems across the field of conservation biology. In contrast to other methods, our approach disaggregates the components of a population’s viability by distinguishing establishment from persistence.

On a paradox of probability theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stuart, C.I.J.M.

1989-01-01

Costa de Beauregard's proposal concerning physical retrocausality has been shown to fail on two crucial points. However, it is argued that his proposal still merits serious attention. The argument arises from showing that his proposal reveals a paradox involving relations between conditional probabilities, statistical correlations and reciprocal causalities of the type exhibited by cooperative dynamics in physical systems. 4 refs. (Author)

Fracture occurrence from radionuclides in the skeleton

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lloyd, R.D.; Taylor, G.N.; Miller, S.C.

2000-06-01

Because skeletal fractures were an important finding among persons contaminated with {sup 226}Ra, experience with fractures among dogs in the colony was summarized to determine the projected significance for persons contaminated with bone-seeking radionuclides. Comparison by Fisher's Exact Test of lifetime fracture occurrence in the skeletons of beagles injected as young adults suggested that for animals given {sup 226}Ra, {sup 228}Ra, {sup 228}Th, or {sup 239}Pu citrate, there was probably an excess over controls in fractures of the ribs, leg bones, spinous processes, and pelvis (os coxae) plus the mandible for dogs given {sup 226}Ra and the scapulae for dogs given {sup 228}Ra or 228 Th. Regression analysis indicated that significantly elevated fracture occurrence was especially notable at the higher radiation doses, at about 50 Gy average skeletal dose for {sup 239}Pu, 140 Gy for {sup 226}Ra, about 40 Gy for {sup 228}Ra, and more than 15 Gy for {sup 228}Th. The average number of fractures per dog was significantly elevated over that noted in controls for the highest radiation doses of {sup 239}Pu and {sup 226}Ra and for the higher doses of {sup 228}Ra and {sup 228}Th. For those dogs given {sup 90}Sr citrate, there was virtually no important difference from control beagles not given radionuclides, even at group mean cumulative skeletal radiation doses up to 101 Gy. Because of a large proportion of dogs with fractures that died with bone malignancy (even at dosage levels lower than those exhibiting an excess average number of fractures per dog), they conclude that fracture would not be an important endpoint at lower levels of plutonium contamination in humans such as would be expected to occur from occupational or environmental exposure.

A short walk in quantum probability

Science.gov (United States)

Hudson, Robin

2018-04-01

This is a personal survey of aspects of quantum probability related to the Heisenberg commutation relation for canonical pairs. Using the failure, in general, of non-negativity of the Wigner distribution for canonical pairs to motivate a more satisfactory quantum notion of joint distribution, we visit a central limit theorem for such pairs and a resulting family of quantum planar Brownian motions which deform the classical planar Brownian motion, together with a corresponding family of quantum stochastic areas. This article is part of the themed issue `Hilbert's sixth problem'.

A short walk in quantum probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Hudson, Robin

2018-04-28

This is a personal survey of aspects of quantum probability related to the Heisenberg commutation relation for canonical pairs. Using the failure, in general, of non-negativity of the Wigner distribution for canonical pairs to motivate a more satisfactory quantum notion of joint distribution, we visit a central limit theorem for such pairs and a resulting family of quantum planar Brownian motions which deform the classical planar Brownian motion, together with a corresponding family of quantum stochastic areas.This article is part of the themed issue 'Hilbert's sixth problem'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Numerical determination of transmission probabilities in cylindrical geometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Queiroz Bogado Leite, S. de.

1989-11-01

Efficient methods for numerical calculation of transmission probabilities in cylindrical geometry are presented. Relative errors of the order of 10 -5 or smaller are obtained using analytical solutions and low order quadrature integration schemes. (author) [pt

Reducing the Probability of Incidents Through Behavior-Based Safety -- An Anomaly or Not?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turek, John A

2002-01-01

Reducing the probability of incidents through Behavior-Based Safety--an anomaly or not? Can a Behavior-Based Safety (BBS) process reduce the probability of an employee sustaining a work-related injury or illness? This presentation describes the actions taken to implement a sustainable BBS process and evaluates its effectiveness. The BBS process at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center used a pilot population of national laboratory employees to: Achieve employee and management support; Reduce the probability of employees' sustaining work-related injuries and illnesses; and Provide support for additional funding to expand within the laboratory

Linking management effectiveness indicators to observed effects of protected areas on fire occurrence in the Amazon rainforest.

Science.gov (United States)

Nolte, Christoph; Agrawal, Arun

2013-02-01

Management-effectiveness scores are used widely by donors and implementers of conservation projects to prioritize, track, and evaluate investments in protected areas. However, there is little evidence that these scores actually reflect the capacity of protected areas to deliver conservation outcomes. We examined the relation between indicators of management effectiveness in protected areas and the effectiveness of protected areas in reducing fire occurrence in the Amazon rainforest. We used data collected with the Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool (METT) scorecard, adopted by some of the world's largest conservation organizations to track management characteristics believed to be crucial for protected-area effectiveness. We used the occurrence of forest fires from 2000 through 2010 as a measure of the effect of protected areas on undesired land-cover change in the Amazon basin. We used matching to compare the estimated effect of protected areas with low versus high METT scores on fire occurrence. We also estimated effects of individual protected areas on fire occurrence and explored the relation between these effects and METT scores. The relations between METT scores and effects of protected areas on fire occurrence were weak. Protected areas with higher METT scores in 2005 did not seem to have performed better than protected areas with lower METT scores at reducing fire occurrence over the last 10 years. Further research into the relations between management-effectiveness indicators and conservation outcomes in protected areas seems necessary, and our results show that the careful application of matching methods can be a suitable method for that purpose. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Ballentine, Leslie E.

2016-08-01

Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

On the failure probability of the primary piping of the PWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schueller, G.I.; Hampl, N.C.

1984-01-01

A methodology for quantification of the structural reliability of the primary piping (PP) of a PWR under operational and accidental conditions is developed. Biblis B is utilized as reference plant. The PP structure is modeled utilizing finite element procedures. Based on the properties of the operational and internal accidental conditions, a static analysis suffices. However, a dynamic analysis considering non-linear effects of the soil-structure-interaction is to be used to determine load effects due to earthquake induced loading. Considering realistically the presence of initial cracks in welds and considering annual frequencies of occurrence of the various loading conditions, a crack propagation calculation utilizing the Forman model is carried out. Simultaneously leak and break probabilities using the 'Two Criteria'-Aproach are computed. A Monte Carlo simulation procedure is used as method of solution. (Author) [pt

Risk Preferences, Probability Weighting, and Strategy Tradeoffs in Wildfire Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Hand, Michael S; Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Calkin, David E; Thompson, Matthew P

2015-10-01

Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey-based experiment administered to federal wildfire managers. Respondents were presented with a multiattribute lottery-choice experiment where each lottery is defined by three outcome attributes: expenditures for fire suppression, damage to private property, and exposure of firefighters to the risk of aviation-related fatalities. Respondents choose one of two strategies, each of which includes "good" (low cost/low damage) and "bad" (high cost/high damage) outcomes that occur with varying probabilities. The choice task also incorporates an information framing experiment to test whether information about fatality risk to firefighters alters managers' responses to risk. Results suggest that managers exhibit risk aversion and nonlinear probability weighting, which can result in choices that do not minimize expected expenditures, property damage, or firefighter exposure. Information framing tends to result in choices that reduce the risk of aviation fatalities, but exacerbates nonlinear probability weighting. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Gravity and count probabilities in an expanding universe

Science.gov (United States)

Bouchet, Francois R.; Hernquist, Lars

1992-01-01

The time evolution of nonlinear clustering on large scales in cold dark matter, hot dark matter, and white noise models of the universe is investigated using N-body simulations performed with a tree code. Count probabilities in cubic cells are determined as functions of the cell size and the clustering state (redshift), and comparisons are made with various theoretical models. We isolate the features that appear to be the result of gravitational instability, those that depend on the initial conditions, and those that are likely a consequence of numerical limitations. More specifically, we study the development of skewness, kurtosis, and the fifth moment in relation to variance, the dependence of the void probability on time as well as on sparseness of sampling, and the overall shape of the count probability distribution. Implications of our results for theoretical and observational studies are discussed.

The mediating effect of psychosocial factors on suicidal probability among adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Hur, Ji-Won; Kim, Won-Joong; Kim, Yong-Ku

2011-01-01

Suicidal probability is an actual tendency including negative self-evaluation, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, and hostility. The purpose of this study was to examine the role of psychosocial variances in the suicidal probability of adolescents, especially the role of mediating variance. This study investigated the mediating effects of psychosocial factors such as depression, anxiety, self-esteem, stress, and social support on the suicidal probability among 1,586 adolescents attending middle and high schools in the Kyunggi Province area of South Korea. The relationship between depression and anxiety/suicidal probability was mediated by both social resources and self-esteem. Furthermore, the influence of social resources was mediated by interpersonal and achievement stress as well as self-esteem. This study suggests that suicidal probability in adolescents has various relationships, including mediating relations, with several psychosocial factors. The interventions on suicidal probability in adolescents should focus on social factors as well as clinical symptoms.

Prediction and probability in sciences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.

1998-01-01

This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)

RYR1-related rhabdomyolysis: A common but probably underdiagnosed manifestation of skeletal muscle ryanodine receptor dysfunction.

Science.gov (United States)

Voermans, N C; Snoeck, M; Jungbluth, H

2016-10-01

Mutations in the skeletal muscle ryanodine receptor (RYR1) gene are associated with a wide spectrum of inherited myopathies presenting throughout life. Malignant hyperthermia susceptibility (MHS)-related RYR1 mutations have emerged as a common cause of exertional rhabdomyolysis, accounting for up to 30% of rhabdomyolysis episodes in otherwise healthy individuals. Common triggers are exercise and heat and, less frequently, viral infections, alcohol and drugs. Most subjects are normally strong and have no personal or family history of malignant hyperthermia. Heat intolerance and cold-induced muscle stiffness may be a feature. Recognition of this (probably not uncommon) rhabdomyolysis cause is vital for effective counselling, to identify potentially malignant hyperthermia-susceptible individuals and to adapt training regimes. Studies in various animal models provide insights regarding possible pathophysiological mechanisms and offer therapeutic perspectives. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

The quantum probability calculus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jauch, J.M.

1976-01-01

The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)

Perturbative analysis of the influence of π+π- strong interaction on the relation between A2π creation probabilities in ns-states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voskresenskaya, O.O.

2002-01-01

It is shown that the relations between probabilities of A 2π -atoms creation in ns-states, derived with neglecting of the strong interaction between pions, hold practically unchanged if the strong interaction is taken into account in the first order of the perturbation theory. The formulation of Deser equation for the energy levels shift of the hadronic atoms (HA) is given in terms of the effective range of the strong interaction and relative correction to the Coulomb wave function of HA at origin, caused by the strong interaction. (author)

Pattern Of Occurrence, Management And Prevention Of Trauma In ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this paper is to review the occurrence, management and prevention of trauma in industry in Nigeria with particular reference to the oil industry. The type of injuries, their causes and relative frequency in the Nigerian oil industry has been discussed. First aid facilities, evacuation procedures and ...

Is radioactive iodine-131 treatment related to the occurrence of non-synchronous second primary malignancy in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Souza, Marcelo Cruzick de; Momesso, Denise P.; Vieira Neto, Leonardo; Vaisman, Mario; Vaisman, Fernanda; Corbo, Rossana; Martins, Rosangela Aparecida Gomes

2016-01-01

Objective: Much controversy relates to the risk of non-synchronous second primary malignancies (NSSPM) after radioactive iodine treatment (RAI-131) in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients. This study evaluated the relationship between RAI-131 and NSSPM in DTC survivors with long-term follow-up. Materials and methods: Retrospective analysis of 413 DTC cases was performed; 252 received RAI-131 and 161 were treated with thyroidectomy alone. Exclusion criteria were: prior or synchronous non-thyroidal malignancies (within the first year), familial syndromes associated to multiple neoplasms, ionizing radiation exposure or second tumors with unknown histopathology. Results: During a mean follow-up of 11.0 ± 7.5 years, 17 (4.1%) patients developed solid NSSPM. Patients with NSSPM were older than those without (p = 0.02). RAI-131 and I-131 cumulative activity were similar in patients with and without NSSPM (p = 0.18 and p = 0.78, respectively). Incidence of NSSPM was 5.2% in patients with RAI-131 treatment and 2.5% in those without RAI-131 (p = 0.18). Using multivariate analysis, RAI-131 was not significantly associated with NSSPM occurrence (p = 0.35); age was the only independent predictor (p = 0.04). Under log rank statistical analysis, after 10 years of follow-up, it was observed a tendency of lower NSSPM-free survival among patients that received RAI-131 treatment (0.96 vs. 0.87; p = 0.06), what was not affected by age at DTC diagnosis. Conclusion: In our cohort of DTC survivors, with a long-term follow-up period, RAI-131 treatment and I-131 cumulative dose were not significantly associated with NSSPM occurrence. A tendency of premature NSSPM occurrence among patients treated with RAI-131 was observed, suggesting an anticipating oncogenic effect by interaction with other risk factors. (author)

Sociodemographic and environmental analysis for the occurrence of anti-Leptospira antibodies in dogs of Teresina, Piauí, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Elís Rosélia Dutra de Freitas Siqueira; Castro, Vanessa; Mineiro, Ana Lys Bezerra Barradas; Prianti, Maria das Graças; Martins, Gustavo Henrique Chaves; Santana, Misael das Virgens; Brito, Lucas Moreira; Silva, Silvana Maria Medeiros de Sousa

2018-05-01

Leptospirosis is a worldwide zoonosis whose transmission is interlinked by multiple factors in the man-animal-ecosystem interface. This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors for the occurrence of anti-Leptospira antibodies in dogs in the capital Teresina (PI), and to determine their spatial distribution. Five hundred fifty-eight dog blood samples were submitted to the Microscopic Serum Agglutination (MSA) test. We applied semi-structured questionnaires to dog owners and obtained the area of residence for projection in geographical maps. Serum prevalence was 13.8%, in which the most common serovar was icterohaemorrhagiae, with 49.2%. Dogs with street access, failure to collect food bowl and low income of owners were risk factors. There was a higher number of seropositive dogs in the rainy season, with 87.1%, which is a probable risk factor for the occurrence of cases. The distribution of seropositive dogs was widely spread in the city, with predominance of cases in anthropized areas. These risk factors favor the occurrence of anti-Leptospira antibodies in dogs that are agent maintenance sources in the city and reinforce the need for epidemiological and environmental surveillance to prevent leptospirosis.

A population-based study of the associations of stroke occurrence with weather parameters in Siberia, Russia (1982-92).

Science.gov (United States)

Feigin, V L; Nikitin, Y P; Bots, M L; Vinogradova, T E; Grobbee, D E

2000-03-01

Previous studies have established a seasonal variation in stroke occurrence, but none have assessed the influence of inclement weather conditions on stroke incidence in a general population of Russia. We performed a stroke population-based study in the Oktiabrsky District of Novosibirsk, Siberia, Russia. Included in the analysis were 1929 patients with their first occurrence of ischemic stroke (IS), 215 patients with their first occurrence of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and 64 patients with their first occurrence of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH): all patients were aged between 25 and 74 years. The cumulative daily occurrence of total strokes and stroke subtypes was evaluated in relation to aggregated daily mean values of ambient temperature, relative humidity and air pressure by means of Poisson regression analysis to estimate the rate ratio (RR) with corresponding confidence interval (CI) and to identify the weather parameters of most importance. In a multivariate analysis, with adjustment for the effects of season, solar and geomagnetic activity, and age of the patients, low ambient temperature (RR 1.32; 95% CI 1.05-1.66) and mean value of air pressure (RR 0.986; 95% CI 0.972-0.999) were important predictors of IS occurrence, while mild ambient temperature (RR 1.52; 95% CI 1. 04-2.22) was an important predictor of ICH occurrence. No relationship between SAH occurrence and any one of the weather parameters studied was revealed. There was no interaction between any meteorological variables that was statistically significant. Inclement weather conditions are associated with the occurrence of IS and ICH in Siberia, Russia. Among the meteorological parameters studied, low ambient temperature and mean air pressure are the most important predictors of IS occurrence, whereas the occurrence of ICH is associated with mild ambient temperature. There is no association between any one of the weather parameters studied and the occurrence of SAH.

Flux continuity and probability conservation in complexified Bohmian mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poirier, Bill

2008-01-01

Recent years have seen increased interest in complexified Bohmian mechanical trajectory calculations for quantum systems as both a pedagogical and computational tool. In the latter context, it is essential that trajectories satisfy probability conservation to ensure they are always guided to where they are most needed. We consider probability conservation for complexified Bohmian trajectories. The analysis relies on time-reversal symmetry considerations, leading to a generalized expression for the conjugation of wave functions of complexified variables. This in turn enables meaningful discussion of complexified flux continuity, which turns out not to be satisfied in general, though a related property is found to be true. The main conclusion, though, is that even under a weak interpretation, probability is not conserved along complex Bohmian trajectories

The probable effect of integrated reporting on audit quality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tamer A. El Nashar

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This paper examines a probable effect of integrated reporting on improving the audit quality of organizations. I correlate the hypothesis of this paper in relation to the current trends of protecting the economies, the financial markets and the societies. I predict an improvement of the audit quality, as a result to an estimated percentage of organizations’ reliance on the integrated reporting in their accountability perspective. I used a decision tree and a Bayes’ theorem approach, to predict the probabilities of the significant effect on improving the auditing quality. I find the overall result of this paper, indicates that the probability of organizations to rely on the integrated reporting by a significant percentage, predicts also a significant improvement in audit quality.

Failure frequencies and probabilities applicable to BWR and PWR piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bush, S.H.; Chockie, A.D.

1996-03-01

This report deals with failure probabilities and failure frequencies of nuclear plant piping and the failure frequencies of flanges and bellows. Piping failure probabilities are derived from Piping Reliability Analysis Including Seismic Events (PRAISE) computer code calculations based on fatigue and intergranular stress corrosion as failure mechanisms. Values for both failure probabilities and failure frequencies are cited from several sources to yield a better evaluation of the spread in mean and median values as well as the widths of the uncertainty bands. A general conclusion is that the numbers from WASH-1400 often used in PRAs are unduly conservative. Failure frequencies for both leaks and large breaks tend to be higher than would be calculated using the failure probabilities, primarily because the frequencies are based on a relatively small number of operating years. Also, failure probabilities are substantially lower because of the probability distributions used in PRAISE calculations. A general conclusion is that large LOCA probability values calculated using PRAISE will be quite small, on the order of less than 1E-8 per year (<1E-8/year). The values in this report should be recognized as having inherent limitations and should be considered as estimates and not absolute values. 24 refs 24 refs

Probability-based classifications for spatially characterizing the water temperatures and discharge rates of hot springs in the Tatun Volcanic Region, Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Jang, Cheng-Shin

2015-05-01

Accurately classifying the spatial features of the water temperatures and discharge rates of hot springs is crucial for environmental resources use and management. This study spatially characterized classifications of the water temperatures and discharge rates of hot springs in the Tatun Volcanic Region of Northern Taiwan by using indicator kriging (IK). The water temperatures and discharge rates of the springs were first assigned to high, moderate, and low categories according to the two thresholds of the proposed spring classification criteria. IK was then used to model the occurrence probabilities of the water temperatures and discharge rates of the springs and probabilistically determine their categories. Finally, nine combinations were acquired from the probability-based classifications for the spatial features of the water temperatures and discharge rates of the springs. Moreover, various combinations of spring water features were examined according to seven subzones of spring use in the study region. The research results reveal that probability-based classifications using IK provide practicable insights related to propagating the uncertainty of classifications according to the spatial features of the water temperatures and discharge rates of the springs. The springs in the Beitou (BT), Xingyi Road (XYR), Zhongshanlou (ZSL), and Lengshuikeng (LSK) subzones are suitable for supplying tourism hotels with a sufficient quantity of spring water because they have high or moderate discharge rates. Furthermore, natural hot springs in riverbeds and valleys should be developed in the Dingbeitou (DBT), ZSL, Xiayoukeng (XYK), and Macao (MC) subzones because of low discharge rates and low or moderate water temperatures.

The pleasures of probability

CERN Document Server

Isaac, Richard

1995-01-01

The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandy, W. T. Jr.

2009-01-01

In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.

Predicting the geographical distribution of two invasive termite species from occurrence data.

Science.gov (United States)

Tonini, Francesco; Divino, Fabio; Lasinio, Giovanna Jona; Hochmair, Hartwig H; Scheffrahn, Rudolf H

2014-10-01

Predicting the potential habitat of species under both current and future climate change scenarios is crucial for monitoring invasive species and understanding a species' response to different environmental conditions. Frequently, the only data available on a species is the location of its occurrence (presence-only data). Using occurrence records only, two models were used to predict the geographical distribution of two destructive invasive termite species, Coptotermes gestroi (Wasmann) and Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki. The first model uses a Bayesian linear logistic regression approach adjusted for presence-only data while the second one is the widely used maximum entropy approach (Maxent). Results show that the predicted distributions of both C. gestroi and C. formosanus are strongly linked to urban development. The impact of future scenarios such as climate warming and population growth on the biotic distribution of both termite species was also assessed. Future climate warming seems to affect their projected probability of presence to a lesser extent than population growth. The Bayesian logistic approach outperformed Maxent consistently in all models according to evaluation criteria such as model sensitivity and ecological realism. The importance of further studies for an explicit treatment of residual spatial autocorrelation and a more comprehensive comparison between both statistical approaches is suggested.

Increased variability of tornado occurrence in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Brooks, Harold E; Carbin, Gregory W; Marsh, Patrick T

2014-10-17

Whether or not climate change has had an impact on the occurrence of tornadoes in the United States has become a question of high public and scientific interest, but changes in how tornadoes are reported have made it difficult to answer it convincingly. We show that, excluding the weakest tornadoes, the mean annual number of tornadoes has remained relatively constant, but their variability of occurrence has increased since the 1970s. This is due to a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes combined with an increase in days with many tornadoes, leading to greater variability on annual and monthly time scales and changes in the timing of the start of the tornado season. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Propositional Versus Dual-Process Accounts of Evaluative Conditioning: I. The Effects of Co-Occurrence and Relational Information on Implicit and Explicit Evaluations.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Xiaoqing; Gawronski, Bertram; Balas, Robert

2017-01-01

Evaluative conditioning (EC) is defined as the change in the evaluation of a conditioned stimulus (CS) due to its pairing with a valenced unconditioned stimulus (US). According to propositional accounts, EC effects should be qualified by the relation between the CS and the US. Dual-process accounts suggest that relational information should qualify EC effects on explicit evaluations, whereas implicit evaluations should reflect the frequency of CS-US co-occurrences. Experiments 1 and 2 showed that, when relational information was provided before the encoding of CS-US pairings, it moderated EC effects on explicit, but not implicit, evaluations. In Experiment 3, relational information moderated EC effects on both explicit and implicit evaluations when it was provided simultaneously with CS-US pairings. Frequency of CS-US pairings had no effect on implicit evaluations. Although the results can be reconciled with both propositional and dual-process accounts, they are more parsimoniously explained by propositional accounts.