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Sample records for relative occurrence probability

  1. Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M; Edwards, Thomas C; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M

    2014-12-01

    Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate ( r ) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density ( N ) relate to occurrence probability ( P occ ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, Western US, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with P occ , while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with P occ . Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

  2. Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M.

    2014-01-01

    Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions.The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density (N ) relate to occurrence probability (Pocc ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, western USA, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments.Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with Pocc, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with Pocc. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

  3. Mapping the Relative Probability of Common Toad Occurrence in Terrestrial Lowland Farm Habitat in the United Kingdom.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosie D Salazar

    Full Text Available The common toad (Bufo bufo is of increasing conservation concern in the United Kingdom (UK due to dramatic population declines occurring in the past century. Many of these population declines coincided with reductions in both terrestrial and aquatic habitat availability and quality and have been primarily attributed to the effect of agricultural land conversion (of natural and semi-natural habitats to arable and pasture fields and pond drainage. However, there is little evidence available to link habitat availability with common toad population declines, especially when examined at a broad landscape scale. Assessing such patterns of population declines at the landscape scale, for instance, require an understanding of how this species uses terrestrial habitat.We intensively studied the terrestrial resource selection of a large population of common toads in Oxfordshire, England, UK. Adult common toads were fitted with passive integrated transponder (PIT tags to allow detection in the terrestrial environment using a portable PIT antenna once toads left the pond and before going into hibernation (April/May-October 2012 and 2013. We developed a population-level resource selection function (RSF to assess the relative probability of toad occurrence in the terrestrial environment by collecting location data for 90 recaptured toads.The predicted relative probability of toad occurrence for this population was greatest in wooded habitat near to water bodies; relative probability of occurrence declined dramatically > 50 m from these habitats. Toads also tended to select habitat near to their breeding pond and toad occurrence was negatively related to urban environments.

  4. Problems involved in calculating the probability of rare occurrences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tittes, E.

    1986-01-01

    Also with regard to the characteristics such as occurrence probability or occurrence rate, there are limits which have to be observed, or else probability data and thus the concept of determinable risk itself will lose its practical value. The mathematical models applied for probability assessment are based on data supplied by the insurance companies, reliability experts in the automobile industry, or by planning experts in the field of traffic or information supply. (DG) [de

  5. On the probability of occurrence of rogue waves

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    E. M. Bitner-Gregersen

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available A number of extreme and rogue wave studies have been conducted theoretically, numerically, experimentally and based on field data in the last years, which have significantly advanced our knowledge of ocean waves. So far, however, consensus on the probability of occurrence of rogue waves has not been achieved. The present investigation is addressing this topic from the perspective of design needs. Probability of occurrence of extreme and rogue wave crests in deep water is here discussed based on higher order time simulations, experiments and hindcast data. Focus is given to occurrence of rogue waves in high sea states.

  6. Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Mosher, David C.; Shipp, Craig; Moscardelli, Lorena; Chaytor, Jason D.; Baxter, Christopher D. P.; Lee, Homa J.; Urgeles, Roger

    2010-01-01

    The empirical probability for the occurrence of submarine landslides at a given location can be estimated from age dates of past landslides. In this study, tools developed to estimate earthquake probability from paleoseismic horizons are adapted to estimate submarine landslide probability. In both types of estimates, one has to account for the uncertainty associated with age-dating individual events as well as the open time intervals before and after the observed sequence of landslides. For observed sequences of submarine landslides, we typically only have the age date of the youngest event and possibly of a seismic horizon that lies below the oldest event in a landslide sequence. We use an empirical Bayes analysis based on the Poisson-Gamma conjugate prior model specifically applied to the landslide probability problem. This model assumes that landslide events as imaged in geophysical data are independent and occur in time according to a Poisson distribution characterized by a rate parameter λ. With this method, we are able to estimate the most likely value of λ and, importantly, the range of uncertainty in this estimate. Examples considered include landslide sequences observed in the Santa Barbara Channel, California, and in Port Valdez, Alaska. We confirm that given the uncertainties of age dating that landslide complexes can be treated as single events by performing statistical test of age dates representing the main failure episode of the Holocene Storegga landslide complex.

  7. Is there a metric for mineral deposit occurrence probabilities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drew, L.J.; Menzie, W.D.

    1993-01-01

    Traditionally, mineral resource assessments have been used to estimate the physical inventory of critical and strategic mineral commodities that occur in pieces of land and to assess the consequences of supply disruptions of these commodities. More recently, these assessments have been used to estimate the undiscovered mineral wealth in such pieces of land to assess the opportunity cost of using the land for purposes other than mineral production. The field of mineral resource assessment is an interdisciplinary field that draws elements from the disciplines of geology, economic geology (descriptive models), statistics and management science (grade and tonnage models), mineral economics, and operations research (computer simulation models). The purpose of this study is to assert that an occurrenceprobability metric exists that is useful in "filling out" an assessment both for areas in which only a trivial probability exists that a new mining district could be present and for areas where nontrivial probabilities exist for such districts. ?? 1993 Oxford University Press.

  8. Methane emission through ebullition from an estuarine mudflat: 2. Field observations and modeling of occurrence probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xi; Schäfer, Karina V. R.; Slater, Lee

    2017-08-01

    Ebullition can transport methane (CH4) at a much faster rate than other pathways, albeit over limited time and area, in wetland soils and sediments. However, field observations present large uncertainties in ebullition occurrences and statistic models are needed to describe the function relationship between probability of ebullition occurrence and water level changes. A flow-through chamber was designed and installed in a mudflat of an estuarine temperate marsh. Episodic increases in CH4 concentration signaling ebullition events were observed during ebbing tides (15 events over 456 ebbing tides) and occasionally during flooding tides (4 events over 455 flooding tides). Ebullition occurrence functions were defined using logistic regression as the relative initial and end water levels, as well as tidal amplitudes were found to be the key functional variables related to ebullition events. Ebullition of methane was restricted by a surface frozen layer during winter; melting of this layer during spring thaw caused increases in CH4 concentration, with ebullition fluxes similar to those associated with large fluctuations in water level around spring tides. Our findings suggest that initial and end relative water levels, in addition to tidal amplitude, partly regulate ebullition events in tidal wetlands, modulated by the lunar cycle, storage of gas bubbles at different depths and seasonal changes in the surface frozen layer. Maximum tidal strength over a few days, rather than hourly water level, may be more closely associated with the possibility of ebullition occurrence as it represents a trade-off time scale in between hourly and lunar periods.

  9. The probability of object-scene co-occurrence influences object identification processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauvé, Geneviève; Harmand, Mariane; Vanni, Léa; Brodeur, Mathieu B

    2017-07-01

    Contextual information allows the human brain to make predictions about the identity of objects that might be seen and irregularities between an object and its background slow down perception and identification processes. Bar and colleagues modeled the mechanisms underlying this beneficial effect suggesting that the brain stocks information about the statistical regularities of object and scene co-occurrence. Their model suggests that these recurring regularities could be conceptualized along a continuum in which the probability of seeing an object within a given scene can be high (probable condition), moderate (improbable condition) or null (impossible condition). In the present experiment, we propose to disentangle the electrophysiological correlates of these context effects by directly comparing object-scene pairs found along this continuum. We recorded the event-related potentials of 30 healthy participants (18-34 years old) and analyzed their brain activity in three time windows associated with context effects. We observed anterior negativities between 250 and 500 ms after object onset for the improbable and impossible conditions (improbable more negative than impossible) compared to the probable condition as well as a parieto-occipital positivity (improbable more positive than impossible). The brain may use different processing pathways to identify objects depending on whether the probability of co-occurrence with the scene is moderate (rely more on top-down effects) or null (rely more on bottom-up influences). The posterior positivity could index error monitoring aimed to ensure that no false information is integrated into mental representations of the world.

  10. Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical analysis is made of rare, extreme geophysical events recorded in historical data -- counting the number of events $k$ with sizes that exceed chosen thresholds during specific durations of time $\\tau$. Under transformations that stabilize data and model-parameter variances, the most likely Poisson-event occurrence rate, $k/\\tau$, applies for frequentist inference and, also, for Bayesian inference with a Jeffreys prior that ensures posterior invariance under changes of variables. Frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian (Jeffreys) credibility intervals are approximately the same and easy to calculate: $(1/\\tau)[(\\sqrt{k} - z/2)^{2},(\\sqrt{k} + z/2)^{2}]$, where $z$ is a parameter that specifies the width, $z=1$ ($z=2$) corresponding to $1\\sigma$, $68.3\\%$ ($2\\sigma$, $95.4\\%$). If only a few events have been observed, as is usually the case for extreme events, then these "error-bar" intervals might be considered to be relatively wide. From historical records, we estimate most likely long-term occurrence rates, 10-yr occurrence probabilities, and intervals of frequentist confidence and Bayesian credibility for large earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, and magnetic storms.

  11. Uncertainty relation and probability. Numerical illustration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujikawa, Kazuo; Umetsu, Koichiro

    2011-01-01

    The uncertainty relation and the probability interpretation of quantum mechanics are intrinsically connected, as is evidenced by the evaluation of standard deviations. It is thus natural to ask if one can associate a very small uncertainty product of suitably sampled events with a very small probability. We have shown elsewhere that some examples of the evasion of the uncertainty relation noted in the past are in fact understood in this way. We here numerically illustrate that a very small uncertainty product is realized if one performs a suitable sampling of measured data that occur with a very small probability. We introduce a notion of cyclic measurements. It is also shown that our analysis is consistent with the Landau-Pollak-type uncertainty relation. It is suggested that the present analysis may help reconcile the contradicting views about the 'standard quantum limit' in the detection of gravitational waves. (author)

  12. Spatial distribution and occurrence probability of regional new particle formation events in eastern China

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    X. Shen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, the spatial extent of new particle formation (NPF events and the relative probability of observing particles originating from different spatial origins around three rural sites in eastern China were investigated using the NanoMap method, using particle number size distribution (PNSD data and air mass back trajectories. The length of the datasets used were 7, 1.5, and 3 years at rural sites Shangdianzi (SDZ in the North China Plain (NCP, Mt. Tai (TS in central eastern China, and Lin'an (LAN in the Yangtze River Delta region in eastern China, respectively. Regional NPF events were observed to occur with the horizontal extent larger than 500 km at SDZ and TS, favoured by the fast transport of northwesterly air masses. At LAN, however, the spatial footprint of NPF events was mostly observed around the site within 100–200 km. Difference in the horizontal spatial distribution of new particle source areas at different sites was connected to typical meteorological conditions at the sites. Consecutive large-scale regional NPF events were observed at SDZ and TS simultaneously and were associated with a high surface pressure system dominating over this area. Simultaneous NPF events at SDZ and LAN were seldom observed. At SDZ the polluted air masses arriving over the NCP were associated with higher particle growth rate (GR and new particle formation rate (J than air masses from Inner Mongolia (IM. At TS the same phenomenon was observed for J, but GR was somewhat lower in air masses arriving over the NCP compared to those arriving from IM. The capability of NanoMap to capture the NPF occurrence probability depends on the length of the dataset of PNSD measurement but also on topography around the measurement site and typical air mass advection speed during NPF events. Thus the long-term measurements of PNSD in the planetary boundary layer are necessary in the further study of spatial extent and the probability of NPF events. The spatial

  13. Assessing wildfire occurrence probability in Pinus pinaster Ait. stands in Portugal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marques, S.; Garcia-Gonzalo, J.; Botequim, B.; Ricardo, A.; Borges, J. G.; Tome, M.; Oliveira, M. M.

    2012-11-01

    Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) is an important conifer from the western Mediterranean Basin extending over 22% of the forest area in Portugal. In the last three decades nearly 4% of Maritime pine area has been burned by wildfires. Yet no wildfire occurrence probability models are available and forest and fire management planning activities are thus carried out mostly independently of each other. This paper presents research to address this gap. Specifically, it presents a model to assess wildfire occurrence probability in regular and pure Maritime pine stands in Portugal. Emphasis was in developing a model based on easily available inventory data so that it might be useful to forest managers. For that purpose, data from the last two Portuguese National Forest Inventories (NFI) and data from wildfire perimeters in the years from 1998 to 2004 and from 2006 to 2007 were used. A binary logistic regression model was build using biometrics data from the NFI. Biometric data included indicators that might be changed by operations prescribed in forest planning. Results showed that the probability of wildfire occurrence in a stand increases in stand located at steeper slopes and with high shrubs load while it decreases with precipitation and with stand basal area. These results are instrumental for assessing the impact of forest management options on wildfire probability thus helping forest managers to reduce the risk of wildfires. (Author) 57 refs.

  14. The Probability of Uranium Deposit Occurrences at Hatapang and Its Surrounding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soepradto-Tjokrokardono; Ngadenin

    2004-01-01

    This study was carried out based on a geological condition of Hatapang and is surroundings areas that are favourable for uranium accumulation, which are indicated by the existence of granite high uranium content, having mobilizations process and uranium trapping rocks. Referring to the plate tectonic and geochemical situation of Hatapang, those condition will give a significant indications for the possible occurrence of deposit of uranium in the area. The goal of this study is to know the probability occurrences of uranium deposit based on the regional tectonic, geology, mineralogy, geochemical, and radioactivity characters. It is concluded that Hatapang granite is potential for U source granite, and U deposit of black shale type is probably accurate in this area. (author)

  15. A fluctuation relation for the probability of energy backscatter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vela-Martin, Alberto; Jimenez, Javier

    2017-11-01

    We simulate the large scales of an inviscid turbulent flow in a triply periodic box using a dynamic Smagorinsky model for the sub-grid stresses. The flow, which is forced to constant kinetic energy, is fully reversible and can develop a sustained inverse energy cascade. However, due to the large number of degrees freedom, the probability of spontaneous mean inverse energy flux is negligible. In order to quantify the probability of inverse energy cascades, we test a local fluctuation relation of the form log P(A) = - c(V , t) A , where P(A) = p(| Cs|V,t = A) / p(| Cs|V , t = - A) , p is probability, and | Cs|V,t is the average of the least-squared dynamic model coefficient over volume V and time t. This is confirmed when Cs is averaged over sufficiently large domains and long times, and c is found to depend linearly on V and t. In the limit in which V 1 / 3 is of the order of the integral scale and t is of the order of the eddy-turnover time, we recover a global fluctuation relation that predicts a negligible probability of a sustained inverse energy cascade. For smaller V and t, the local fluctuation relation provides useful predictions on the occurrence of local energy backscatter. Funded by the ERC COTURB project.

  16. Estimating occurrence and detection probabilities for stream-breeding salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Jennifer Y.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Qualls, Carl P.

    2017-01-01

    Large gaps exist in our knowledge of the ecology of stream-breeding plethodontid salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Data describing where these salamanders are likely to occur along environmental gradients, as well as their likelihood of detection, are important for the prevention and management of amphibian declines. We used presence/absence data from leaf litter bag surveys and a hierarchical Bayesian multispecies single-season occupancy model to estimate the occurrence of five species of plethodontids across reaches in headwater streams in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Average detection probabilities were high (range = 0.432–0.942) and unaffected by sampling covariates specific to the use of litter bags (i.e., bag submergence, sampling season, in-stream cover). Estimates of occurrence probabilities differed substantially between species (range = 0.092–0.703) and were influenced by the size of the upstream drainage area and by the maximum proportion of the reach that dried. The effects of these two factors were not equivalent across species. Our results demonstrate that hierarchical multispecies models successfully estimate occurrence parameters for both rare and common stream-breeding plethodontids. The resulting models clarify how species are distributed within stream networks, and they provide baseline values that will be useful in evaluating the conservation statuses of plethodontid species within lotic systems in the Gulf Coastal Plain.

  17. Estimating species occurrence, abundance, and detection probability using zero-inflated distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Seth J; Freeman, Mary C

    2008-10-01

    Researchers have developed methods to account for imperfect detection of species with either occupancy (presence absence) or count data using replicated sampling. We show how these approaches can be combined to simultaneously estimate occurrence, abundance, and detection probability by specifying a zero-inflated distribution for abundance. This approach may be particularly appropriate when patterns of occurrence and abundance arise from distinct processes operating at differing spatial or temporal scales. We apply the model to two data sets: (1) previously published data for a species of duck, Anas platyrhynchos, and (2) data for a stream fish species, Etheostoma scotti. We show that in these cases, an incomplete-detection zero-inflated modeling approach yields a superior fit to the data than other models. We propose that zero-inflated abundance models accounting for incomplete detection be considered when replicate count data are available.

  18. Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

    2017-05-01

    A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

  19. Factor contribution to fire occurrence, size, and burn probability in a subtropical coniferous forest in East China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Tao; Wang, Yao; Guo, Zhixing; Li, Yijia

    2017-01-01

    The contribution of factors including fuel type, fire-weather conditions, topography and human activity to fire regime attributes (e.g. fire occurrence, size distribution and severity) has been intensively discussed. The relative importance of those factors in explaining the burn probability (BP), which is critical in terms of fire risk management, has been insufficiently addressed. Focusing on a subtropical coniferous forest with strong human disturbance in East China, our main objective was to evaluate and compare the relative importance of fuel composition, topography, and human activity for fire occurrence, size and BP. Local BP distribution was derived with stochastic fire simulation approach using detailed historical fire data (1990-2010) and forest-resource survey results, based on which our factor contribution analysis was carried out. Our results indicated that fuel composition had the greatest relative importance in explaining fire occurrence and size, but human activity explained most of the variance in BP. This implies that the influence of human activity is amplified through the process of overlapping repeated ignition and spreading events. This result emphasizes the status of strong human disturbance in local fire processes. It further confirms the need for a holistic perspective on factor contribution to fire likelihood, rather than focusing on individual fire regime attributes, for the purpose of fire risk management.

  20. Faster exact Markovian probability functions for motif occurrences: a DFA-only approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeca, Paolo; Raineri, Emanuele

    2008-12-15

    The computation of the statistical properties of motif occurrences has an obviously relevant application: patterns that are significantly over- or under-represented in genomes or proteins are interesting candidates for biological roles. However, the problem is computationally hard; as a result, virtually all the existing motif finders use fast but approximate scoring functions, in spite of the fact that they have been shown to produce systematically incorrect results. A few interesting exact approaches are known, but they are very slow and hence not practical in the case of realistic sequences. We give an exact solution, solely based on deterministic finite-state automata (DFA), to the problem of finding the whole relevant part of the probability distribution function of a simple-word motif in a homogeneous (biological) sequence. Out of that, the z-value can always be computed, while the P-value can be obtained either when it is not too extreme with respect to the number of floating-point digits available in the implementation, or when the number of pattern occurrences is moderately low. In particular, the time complexity of the algorithms for Markov models of moderate order (0 manage to obtain an algorithm which is both easily interpretable and efficient. This approach can be used for exact statistical studies of very long genomes and protein sequences, as we illustrate with some examples on the scale of the human genome.

  1. Re‐estimated effects of deep episodic slip on the occurrence and probability of great earthquakes in Cascadia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beeler, Nicholas M.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; McCausland, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    Mazzotti and Adams (2004) estimated that rapid deep slip during typically two week long episodes beneath northern Washington and southern British Columbia increases the probability of a great Cascadia earthquake by 30–100 times relative to the probability during the ∼58 weeks between slip events. Because the corresponding absolute probability remains very low at ∼0.03% per week, their conclusion is that though it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur during a rapid slip event than during other times, a great earthquake is unlikely to occur during any particular rapid slip event. This previous estimate used a failure model in which great earthquakes initiate instantaneously at a stress threshold. We refine the estimate, assuming a delayed failure model that is based on laboratory‐observed earthquake initiation. Laboratory tests show that failure of intact rock in shear and the onset of rapid slip on pre‐existing faults do not occur at a threshold stress. Instead, slip onset is gradual and shows a damped response to stress and loading rate changes. The characteristic time of failure depends on loading rate and effective normal stress. Using this model, the probability enhancement during the period of rapid slip in Cascadia is negligible (stresses of 10 MPa or more and only increases by 1.5 times for an effective normal stress of 1 MPa. We present arguments that the hypocentral effective normal stress exceeds 1 MPa. In addition, the probability enhancement due to rapid slip extends into the interevent period. With this delayed failure model for effective normal stresses greater than or equal to 50 kPa, it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur between the periods of rapid deep slip than during them. Our conclusion is that great earthquake occurrence is not significantly enhanced by episodic deep slip events.

  2. Occurrence and Probability Maps of Lutzomyia longipalpis and Lutzomyia cruzi (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade-Filho, J D; Scholte, R G C; Amaral, A L G; Shimabukuro, P H F; Carvalho, O S; Caldeira, R L

    2017-09-01

    Leishmaniases are serious diseases caused by trypanosomatid protozoans of the genus Leishmania transmitted by the bite of phlebotomine sand flies. We analyzed records pertaining to Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz and Neiva, 1912) and Lutzomyia cruzi (Mangabeira, 1938) in Brazil from the following sources: the collection of phlebotomine sand flies of the Centro de Pesquisas René Rachou/Fiocruz (FIOCRUZ-COLFLEB), the "SpeciesLink" (CRIA) database, from systematic surveys of scientific articles and gray literature (dissertations, theses, and communications), and disease data obtained from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases/Ministry of Health (SINAN/MS). Environmental data and ecological niche modeling (ESMS) using the approach of MaxEnt algorithm produced maps of occurrence probability for both Lu. longipalpis and Lu. cruzi. Lutzomyia longipalpis was found in 229 Brazilian municipalities and Lu. cruzi in 27. The species were sympatric in 16 municipalities of the Central-West region of Brazil. Our results show that Lu. longipalpis is widely distributed and associated with the high number of cases of visceral leishmaniasis reported in Brazil. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Diagnostics of enterprise bankruptcy occurrence probability in an anti-crisis management: modern approaches and classification of models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.V. Zhalinska

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Diagnostics of enterprise bankruptcy occurrence probability is defined as an important tool ensuring the viability of an organization under conditions of unpredictable dynamic environment. The paper aims to define the basic features of diagnostics of bankruptcy occurrence probability models and their classification. The article grounds the objective increasing of crisis probability in modern enterprises where such increasing leads to the need to improve the efficiency of anti-crisis enterprise activities. The system of anti-crisis management is based on the subsystem of diagnostics of bankruptcy occurrence probability. Such a subsystem is the main one for further measures to prevent and overcome the crisis. The classification of existing models of enterprise bankruptcy occurrence probability has been suggested. The classification is based on methodical and methodological principles of models. The following main groups of models are determined: the models using financial ratios, aggregates and scores, the models of discriminated analysis, the methods of strategic analysis, informal models, artificial intelligence systems and the combination of the models. The classification made it possible to identify the analytical capabilities of each of the groups of models suggested.

  4. Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, A N

    1996-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables

  5. Environmental and anthropogenic factors affecting the probability of occurrence of Oncomegas wageneri (Cestoda: Trypanorhyncha) in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal-Martínez, Víctor M; Torres-Irineo, Edgar; Romero, David; Gold-Bouchot, Gerardo; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Valdés-Lozano, David; Aguirre-Macedo, M Leopoldina

    2015-11-26

    Understanding the environmental and anthropogenic factors influencing the probability of occurrence of the marine parasitic species is fundamental for determining the circumstances under which they can act as bioindicators of environmental impact. The aim of this study was to determine whether physicochemical variables, polyaromatic hydrocarbons or sewage discharge affect the probability of occurrence of the larval cestode Oncomegas wageneri, which infects the shoal flounder, Syacium gunteri, in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The study area included 162 sampling sites in the southern Gulf of Mexico and covered 288,205 km(2), where the benthic sediments, water and the shoal flounder individuals were collected. We used the boosted generalised additive models (boosted GAM) and the MaxEnt to examine the potential statistical relationships between the environmental variables (nutrients, contaminants and physicochemical variables from the water and sediments) and the probability of the occurrence of this parasite. The models were calibrated using all of the sampling sites (full area) with and without parasite occurrences (n = 162) and a polygon area that included sampling sites with a depth of 1500 m or less (n = 134). Oncomegas wageneri occurred at 29/162 sampling sites. The boosted GAM for the full area and the polygon area accurately predicted the probability of the occurrence of O. wageneri in the study area. By contrast, poor probabilities of occurrence were obtained with the MaxEnt models for the same areas. The variables with the highest frequencies of appearance in the models (proxies for the explained variability) were the polyaromatic hydrocarbons of high molecular weight (PAHH, 95 %), followed by a combination of nutrients, spatial variables and polyaromatic hydrocarbons of low molecular weight (PAHL, 5 %). The contribution of the PAHH to the variability was explained by the fact that these compounds, together with N and P, are carried by rivers that

  6. Conditional probability of the tornado missile impact given a tornado occurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodman, J.; Koch, J.E.

    1982-01-01

    Using an approach based on statistical mechanics, an expression for the probability of the first missile strike is developed. The expression depends on two generic parameters (injection probability eta(F) and height distribution psi(Z,F)), which are developed in this study, and one plant specific parameter (number of potential missiles N/sub p/). The expression for the joint probability of simultaneous impact of muitiple targets is also developed. This espression is applicable to calculation of the probability of common cause failure due to tornado missiles. It is shown that the probability of the first missile strike can be determined using a uniform missile distribution model. It is also shown that the conditional probability of the second strike, given the first, is underestimated by the uniform model. The probability of the second strike is greatly increased if the missiles are in clusters large enough to cover both targets

  7. Modeling co-occurrence of northern spotted and barred owls: accounting for detection probability differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Larissa L.; Reid, Janice A.; Forsman, Eric D.; Nichols, James D.

    2009-01-01

    Barred owls (Strix varia) have recently expanded their range and now encompass the entire range of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). This expansion has led to two important issues of concern for management of northern spotted owls: (1) possible competitive interactions between the two species that could contribute to population declines of northern spotted owls, and (2) possible changes in vocalization behavior and detection probabilities of northern spotted owls induced by presence of barred owls. We used a two-species occupancy model to investigate whether there was evidence of competitive exclusion between the two species at study locations in Oregon, USA. We simultaneously estimated detection probabilities for both species and determined if the presence of one species influenced the detection of the other species. Model selection results and associated parameter estimates provided no evidence that barred owls excluded spotted owls from territories. We found strong evidence that detection probabilities differed for the two species, with higher probabilities for northern spotted owls that are the object of current surveys. Non-detection of barred owls is very common in surveys for northern spotted owls, and detection of both owl species was negatively influenced by the presence of the congeneric species. Our results suggest that analyses directed at hypotheses of barred owl effects on demographic or occupancy vital rates of northern spotted owls need to deal adequately with imperfect and variable detection probabilities for both species.

  8. On the Probability of Occurrence of Clusters in Abelian Sandpile Model

    OpenAIRE

    Moradi, M.; Rouhani, S.

    2004-01-01

    We have performed extensive simulations on the Abelian Sandpile Model (ASM) on square lattice. We have estimated the probability of observation of many clusters. Some are in good agreement with previous analytical results, while some show discrepancies between simulation and analytical results.

  9. Packaging- and transportation-related occurrence reports: 1993 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Welch, M.J.; Dickerson, L.S.; Jennings, S.D.

    1994-06-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS) is an interactive computer system designed to support DOE-owned or -operated facilities in reporting and processing of information concerning occurrences related to facility operations. The requirements for reporting and the extent of the occurrences to be reported are defined in DOE Order 5000.3B, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information (hereafter referred to as DOE 5000.3B). The centralized data base, which is managed by the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), provides computerized support for the collection, distribution, updating, analysis, and sign-off of information in the occurrence reports (ORs). The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Packaging and Transportation Safety (PATS) Program has been made responsible for retrieving reports and information pertaining to transportation and packaging incidents/accidents from the centralized ORPS data base. This annual report details the methodology that PATS uses to conduct searches of the ORPS for pertinent information, the form of the reporting to EH-332, review and examination of trends observed in ORs related to transportation and packaging safety, a presentation and discussion of the root-cause codes of ORPS and the nature of occurrence codes of PATS, timely processing of notification reports to final stage, and analysis of 10% of the reported ORs that were finalized to determine whether the actions taken to close out the occurrences were sufficient to ensure remediation of the incident and to prevent a recurrence. Data in the report are presented by calendar years

  10. Relative Occurrence of Fasciola species in cattle, sheep and goats ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    All liver flukes detected in cattle, sheep and goats were collected and transported to laboratory for analysis to determine the relative occurrence of Fasciola gigantica and Fasciola hepatic in slaughtered cattle, sheep, and goats by observing their size and morphology. The study showed that all the liver flukes collected in ...

  11. Fear appeals and attitude change: effects of a threat's noxiousness, probability of occurrence, and the efficacy of coping responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, R W; Mewborn, C R

    1976-07-01

    Three factorial experiments examined the persuasive effects of the noxiousness of threatened event, its probability of occurrence, and the efficacy of recommended protective measures. A total of 176 students participated in separate studies on the topics of cigarette smoking, driving safety, and venereal disease. The results disclosed that increments in the efficacy variable increased intentions to adopt the efficacy variable increased intentions to adopt the recommended practices. Interaction effects revealed that when the preventive practices were effective, increments in the noxiousness and probability variables facilitated attitude change; however, when the coping responses were the preventive practices were effective, increments in the noxiousness and probability either had no effect or a deleterious effect, respectively. These interaction effects were discussed in terms of a defensive avoidance hypothesis, the crucial component of which was an inability to ward off the danger. Furthermore, the effect of the emotion of fear upon intentions was found to be mediated by the cognitive appraisal of severity of the threat. Finally, similarities with and extensions of previous studies were reviewed.

  12. Statistics concerning the Apollo command module water landing, including the probability of occurrence of various impact conditions, sucessful impact, and body X-axis loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitnah, A. M.; Howes, D. B.

    1971-01-01

    Statistical information for the Apollo command module water landings is presented. This information includes the probability of occurrence of various impact conditions, a successful impact, and body X-axis loads of various magnitudes.

  13. Occurrence Probabilities of Wet and Dry Periods in Southern Italy through the SPI Evaluated on Synthetic Monthly Precipitation Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tommaso Caloiero

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The present article investigates dry and wet periods in a large area of the Mediterranean basin. First, a stochastic model was applied to a homogeneous database of monthly precipitation values of 46 rain gauges in five regions of southern Italy. In particular, after estimating the model parameters, a set of 104 years of monthly precipitation for each rain gauge was generated by means of a Monte Carlo technique. Then, dry and wet periods were analyzed through the application of the standardized precipitation index (SPI over 3-month and 6-month timespan (short-term and 12-month and 24-month period (long-term. As a result of the SPI application on the generated monthly precipitation series, higher occurrence probabilities of dry conditions than wet conditions have been detected, especially when long-term precipitation scales are considered.

  14. Prediction of the occurrence of related strong earthquakes in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vorobieva, I.A.; Panza, G.F.

    1993-06-01

    In the seismic flow it is often observed that a Strong Earthquake (SE), is followed by Related Strong Earthquakes (RSEs), which occur near the epicentre of the SE with origin time rather close to the origin time of the SE. The algorithm for the prediction of the occurrence of a RSE has been developed and applied for the first time to the seismicity data of the California-Nevada region and has been successfully tested in several regions of the World, the statistical significance of the result being 97%. So far, it has been possible to make five successful forward predictions, with no false alarms or failures to predict. The algorithm is applied here to the Italian territory, where the occurrence of RSEs is a particularly rare phenomenon. Our results show that the standard algorithm is successfully directly applicable without any adjustment of the parameters. Eleven SEs are considered. Of them, three are followed by a RSE, as predicted by the algorithm, eight SEs are not followed by a RSE, and the algorithm predicts this behaviour for seven of them, giving rise to only one false alarm. Since, in Italy, quite often the series of strong earthquakes are relatively short, the algorithm has been extended to handle such situation. The result of this experiment indicates that it is possible to attempt to test a SE, for the occurrence of a RSE, soon after the occurrence of the SE itself, performing timely ''preliminary'' recognition on reduced data sets. This fact, the high confidence level of the retrospective analysis, and the first successful forward predictions, made in different parts of the World, indicates that, even if additional tests are desirable, the algorithm can already be considered for routine application to Civil Defence. (author). Refs, 3 figs, 7 tabs

  15. Common raven occurrence in relation to energy transmission line corridors transiting human-altered sagebrush steppe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Howe, Kristy B.; Casazza, Michael L.; Delehanty, David J.

    2014-01-01

    Energy-related infrastructure and other human enterprises within sagebrush steppe of the American West often results in changes that promote common raven (Corvus corax; hereafter, raven) populations. Ravens, a generalist predator capable of behavioral innovation, present a threat to many species of conservation concern. We evaluate the effects of detailed features of an altered landscape on the probability of raven occurrence using extensive raven survey (n= 1045) and mapping data from southern Idaho, USA. We found nonlinear relationships between raven occurrence and distances to transmission lines, roads, and facilities. Most importantly, raven occurrence was greater with presence of transmission lines up to 2.2 km from the corridor.We further explain variation in raven occurrence along anthropogenic features based on the amount of non-native vegetation and cover type edge, such that ravens select fragmented sagebrush stands with patchy, exotic vegetative introgression. Raven occurrence also increased with greater length of edge formed by the contact of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate spp.) with non-native vegetation cover types. In consideration of increasing alteration of sagebrush steppe, these findings will be useful for planning energy transmission corridor placement and other management activities where conservation of sagebrush obligate species is a priority.

  16. Probability of occurrence of monthly and seasonal winter precipitation over Northwest India based on antecedent-monthly precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dimri, A. P.; Osuri, Krishna K.

    2018-05-01

    Winter (December, January, and February (DJF)) precipitation over northwest India (NWI) is mainly associated with the eastward moving mid-latitude synoptic systems, western disturbances (WDs), embedded within the subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), and is crucial for Rabi (DJF) crops. In this study, the role of winter precipitation at seasonal and monthly scale over NWI and its nine meteorological subdivisions has been analyzed. High-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded precipitation data set of India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period of 1901-2013 is used. Results indicated that the seasonal precipitation over NWI is below (above) the long-term mean in most of the years, when precipitation in any of the month (December/January/February) is in deficit (excess). The contribution of December precipitation (15-20%) to the seasonal (DJF) precipitation is lesser than January (35-40%) and February (35-50%) over all the subdivisions. December (0.60), January (0.57), and February (0.69) precipitation is in-phase (correlation) with the corresponding winter season precipitation. However, January precipitation is not in-phase with the corresponding December (0.083) and February (-0.03) precipitation, while December is in-phase with the February (0.21). When monthly precipitation (December or January or December-January or February) at subdivision level over NWI is excess (deficit); then, the probability of occurrence of seasonal excess (deficit) precipitation is high (almost nil). When antecedent-monthly precipitation is a deficit or excess, the probability of monthly (January or February or January + February) precipitation to be a normal category is >60% over all the subdivisions. This study concludes that the December precipitation is a good indicator to estimate the performance of January, February, January-February, and the seasonal (DJF) precipitation.

  17. A probability index for surface zonda wind occurrence at Mendoza city through vertical sounding principal components analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otero, Federico; Norte, Federico; Araneo, Diego

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this work is to obtain an index for predicting the probability of occurrence of zonda event at surface level from sounding data at Mendoza city, Argentine. To accomplish this goal, surface zonda wind events were previously found with an objective classification method (OCM) only considering the surface station values. Once obtained the dates and the onset time of each event, the prior closest sounding for each event was taken to realize a principal component analysis (PCA) that is used to identify the leading patterns of the vertical structure of the atmosphere previously to a zonda wind event. These components were used to construct the index model. For the PCA an entry matrix of temperature ( T) and dew point temperature (Td) anomalies for the standard levels between 850 and 300 hPa was build. The analysis yielded six significant components with a 94 % of the variance explained and the leading patterns of favorable weather conditions for the development of the phenomenon were obtained. A zonda/non-zonda indicator c can be estimated by a logistic multiple regressions depending on the PCA component loadings, determining a zonda probability index \\widehat{c} calculable from T and Td profiles and it depends on the climatological features of the region. The index showed 74.7 % efficiency. The same analysis was performed by adding surface values of T and Td from Mendoza Aero station increasing the index efficiency to 87.8 %. The results revealed four significantly correlated PCs with a major improvement in differentiating zonda cases and a reducing of the uncertainty interval.

  18. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

  19. Ignition Probability

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...

  20. Class dependency of fuzzy relational database using relational calculus and conditional probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deni Akbar, Mohammad; Mizoguchi, Yoshihiro; Adiwijaya

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we propose a design of fuzzy relational database to deal with a conditional probability relation using fuzzy relational calculus. In the previous, there are several researches about equivalence class in fuzzy database using similarity or approximate relation. It is an interesting topic to investigate the fuzzy dependency using equivalence classes. Our goal is to introduce a formulation of a fuzzy relational database model using the relational calculus on the category of fuzzy relations. We also introduce general formulas of the relational calculus for the notion of database operations such as ’projection’, ’selection’, ’injection’ and ’natural join’. Using the fuzzy relational calculus and conditional probabilities, we introduce notions of equivalence class, redundant, and dependency in the theory fuzzy relational database.

  1. Evaluating probability measures related to subsurface flow and transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cawlfield, J.D.

    1991-01-01

    Probabilistic modeling approaches are being used increasingly in order to carry out quantified risk analysis and to evaluate the uncertainty existing in subsurface flow and transport analyses. The work presented in this paper addresses three issues: comparison of common probabilistic modeling techniques, recent results regarding the sensitivity of probability measures to likely changes in the uncertain variables for transport in porous media, and a discussion of some questions regarding fundamental modeling philosophy within a probabilistic framework. Recent results indicate that uncertainty regarding average flow velocity controls the probabilistic outcome, while uncertainty in the dispersivity and diffusion coefficient does not seem very important. Uncertainty of reaction terms is important only at early times in the transport process. Questions are posed regarding (1) the inclusion of macrodispersion in a probabilistic analysis, (2) statistics of flow velocity and (3) the notion of an ultimate probability measure for subsurface flow analyses

  2. Using relative humidity to predict spotfire probability on prescribed burns

    Science.gov (United States)

    John R. Weir

    2007-01-01

    Spotfires have and always will be a problem that burn bosses and fire crews will have to contend with on prescribed burns. Weather factors (temperature, wind speed and relative humidity) are the main variables burn bosses can use to predict and monitor prescribed fire behavior. At the Oklahoma State University Research Range, prescribed burns are conducted during...

  3. Marine mimivirus relatives are probably large algal viruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claverie Jean-Michel

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Acanthamoeba polyphaga mimivirus is the largest known ds-DNA virus and its 1.2 Mb-genome sequence has revealed many unique features. Mimivirus occupies an independent lineage among eukaryotic viruses and its known hosts include only species from the Acanthamoeba genus. The existence of mimivirus relatives was first suggested by the analysis of the Sargasso Sea metagenomic data. Results We now further demonstrate the presence of numerous "mimivirus-like" sequences using a larger marine metagenomic data set. We also show that the DNA polymerase sequences from three algal viruses (CeV01, PpV01, PoV01 infecting different marine algal species (Chrysochromulina ericina, Phaeocystis pouchetii, Pyramimonas orientalis are very closely related to their homolog in mimivirus. Conclusion Our results suggest that the numerous mimivirus-related sequences identified in marine environments are likely to originate from diverse large DNA viruses infecting phytoplankton. Micro-algae thus constitute a new category of potential hosts in which to look for new species of Mimiviridae.

  4. Foreshock activity and its probabilistic relation to earthquake occurrence in Albania and the surrounding area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Irikura

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available We investigate some characteristics of foreshock activity of moderate and large earthquakes which occurred in the present century in Albania and the surrounding area. Using a prediction algorithm, based on possible foreshocks, we obtained a probabilistic relation between possible foreshocks and mainshocks. From documentary and instrumental data for the period 1901-1994 for the area between 39.0°- 43.0°N and 18.5°-21.5°E we evaluated the probability of the occurrence of mainshocks immediately after their possible foreshocks. The result shows that the probability that mainshocks with magnitude M ³ 6.0 are preceded by a foreshock with magnitude M ³ 4.4, distance £ about 50 km and time £ 10 days is 38% (6/16. The probability that one earthquake with M ³ 4.4 will be followed by a larger earthquake with M ³ 6.0 within about 50 km and 10 days is 1.3% (6/468, but the probability increases to 33% (1/3 if 7 earthquakes with M ³ 4.4 occur within about 50 km and 10 days. From instrumental data for the period 1971-1994, the probability that mainshocks with M ³ 5.0 are preceded by a foreshock with magnitude M ³ 4.0 is 33% (5/15. The probability that one earthquake with M ³ 4.0 will be followed by a larger earthquake with M ³ 5.0 within about 50 km and 10 days is 1.9% (5/262, but the probability increase to 5.6% (1/18 if 3 earthquakes with M ³ 4.0 occur within about 50 km and 10 days. We also found a regional variation of foreshock activity with activity decreasing from the Vlora-Elbasani-Dibra transversal seismic belt to the Ionian-Adriatic seismic zone to the interior part of Albania seismic zone.

  5. Packaging- and transportation-related occurrence reports. Fiscal year 1996 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickerson, L.S.; Welch, M.J.

    1997-02-01

    The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), through its support to the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Transportation, Emergency Management, and Analytical Services (EM-76), retrieves reports and information pertaining to transportation and packaging occurrences from the centralized Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS) database. These selected reports are analyzed for trends, impact on packaging and transportation operations and safety concerns, and lessons learned (LL) in transportation and packaging safety. Some selected reports are reviewed to evaluate the corrective actions being conducted. This report contains an analysis of 246 occurrences identified as packaging- or transportation-related during fiscal year (FY) 1996, with supporting data from calendar year (CY) 1991 through 1995 which provide the basis for trending. The overall number of packaging- and transportation-related occurrences remains a small percentage of the total occurrences in the DOE system, through it is relatively higher this year (∼6%) than previous years when transportation occurrences were approximately 3% of the total. The decrease in the total number of occurrences may be the result of the rollup provisions of the new DOE Order 232.1, and the comparative increase in packaging- and transportation-related occurrence reports (ORs) is only a reflection of the decrease in the overall total. There does not appear to be a correlation between the total number of offsite hazardous materials shipments and the number of reported occurrences. The offsite occurrences, while few in number, are consistent for the major shippers and contractors

  6. Occurrence of mastitis pathogens in relation to somatic cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela Vyletělová Klimešová

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available There were examined 161 cows from 4 farms in total. The suspect animals were selected according to viscosity test results, clinical symptoms and somatic cell count (SCC. Milk samples were examined for the presence of pathogens and for SCC. 55 mastitis pathogens were identified. The most frequently isolated species was Enterococcus faecalis (n = 20, followed by Staphylococcus aureus (n = 6 and Streptococcus uberis (n = 5. The SCC ranged from 9 to 24 204 ths.ml−1. There was positive occurrence of bacteria genus Staphylococcus and Enterococcus at lower SCC (50 ths.ml−1 and at higher SCC numbers (> 300 ths. ml−1 bacteria genus Streptococcus, Enterobacter and Escherichia coli. Differences in SCC were significant (P < 0.001 in negative samples xg 131 SCC versus 491 for positive, 611 for staphylococci and 464 ths.ml−1 for other positive. SCC discrimination limit for practical likelihood of pathogen occurrence estimation in infectious sample groups was calculated. This limit for suspicion of infection is 159 for positive group, 113 for staphylococci and 174 ths.ml−1 for other positive. This could be possible to recommend the value 174 ths.ml−1 for practical use with target to apply preventive or curative measures.

  7. Surficial uranium occurrences in relation to climate and physical setting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlisle, D.

    1984-01-01

    Important surficial chemogenic uranium deposits develop within 1) calcretes, 2) simple evaporative environments and 3) bogs or similar organic environments (''young'' uranium). Calcrete occurrences are the largest, most novel and most dependent upon extreme aridity and geomorphic stability. Economic calcrete deposits are nonpedogenic, resulting from near-surface groundwater transport and lateral concentration of uranium, vanadium, potassium, calcium, and magnesium rather than from ordinary soil-forming processes. Their genesis is essentially observable in Western Australia where carnotite-bearing nonpedogenic calcrete is currently forming under a unique aridic soil moisture regime and where major deposits have formed under similar climates during the last few thousand years. Rainfall is less than 250mm annually, only 1/12 to 1/20 of potential evaporation and concentrated almost entirely in episodic late summer storms. Outside this region, under less arid conditions, only pedogenic calcretes form and they do not contain economic uranium. In southern Africa, calcrete and gypcrete uranium deposits, although Late Tertiary to Quaternary in age, are also nonpedogenic and appear to have formed under similar climatic constraints with local variations in geomorphology and calcrete morphology. (author)

  8. The occurrence of overtraining-related symptoms among under-21 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study was to investigate the manifestation of overtraining-related symptoms among U-21 rugby players, and to gain insight into the detection and prevention thereof. The methodology consisted of a self-constructed questionnaire, which focused on the gathering of psychological, health and biological-related ...

  9. A new expression of the probability distribution in Incomplete Statistics and fundamental thermodynamic relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Zhifu; Lin Bihong; ChenJincan

    2009-01-01

    In order to overcome the limitations of the original expression of the probability distribution appearing in literature of Incomplete Statistics, a new expression of the probability distribution is derived, where the Lagrange multiplier β introduced here is proved to be identical with that introduced in the second and third choices for the internal energy constraint in Tsallis' statistics and to be just equal to the physical inverse temperature. It is expounded that the probability distribution described by the new expression is invariant through uniform translation of the energy spectrum. Moreover, several fundamental thermodynamic relations are given and the relationship between the new and the original expressions of the probability distribution is discussed.

  10. Safety-related occurrences at the Finnish nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reponen, H.; Viitasaari, O.

    1985-04-01

    This report contains detailed descriptions of operating incidents and other safety-related matters at the Finnish nuclear power plants regarded as significant by the regulatory authority, the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety. In this connection, an account is given of the practical actions caused by the incidents, and their significance to reactor safety is evaluated. The main features of the incidents are also described in the general Quartely Report for this period, Operation of Finnish Nuclear Power Plants (STUK-B-YTO 7), which is supplemented by this report intended for experts. (author)

  11. Safety-related occurrences at the Finnish nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viitasaari, O.; Rantavaara, A.

    1984-03-01

    This report contains detailed descriptions of operating incidents and other safety-related matters at the Finnish nuclear power plants regarded as significant by the regulatory authority, the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety. In this connection, an account is given of the practical actions caused by the incidents, and their significance to reactor safety is evaluated. The main features of the incidents are also described in the general Quartely Report for this period, Operation of Finnish Nuclear Power Plants (STL-B-RTO-83/7), which is supplemented by this report intended principally for experts. (author)

  12. Probability laws related to the Jacobi theta and Riemann zeta function and Brownian excursions

    OpenAIRE

    Biane, P.; Pitman, J.; Yor, M.

    1999-01-01

    This paper reviews known results which connect Riemann's integral representations of his zeta function, involving Jacobi's theta function and its derivatives, to some particular probability laws governing sums of independent exponential variables. These laws are related to one-dimensional Brownian motion and to higher dimensional Bessel processes. We present some characterizations of these probability laws, and some approximations of Riemann's zeta function which are related to these laws.

  13. Occurrences of yawn and swallow are temporally related.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abe, Kimiko; Weisz, Sarah E M; Dunn, Rachelle L; DiGioacchino, Martina C; Nyentap, Jennifer A; Stanbouly, Seta; Theurer, Julie A; Bureau, Yves; Affoo, Rebecca H; Martin, Ruth E

    2015-02-01

    Yawning is a stereotyped motor behavior characterized by deep inhalation and associated dilation of the respiratory tract, pronounced jaw opening, and facial grimacing. The frequency of spontaneous yawning varies over the diurnal cycle, peaking after waking and before sleep. Yawning can also be elicited by seeing or hearing another yawn, or by thinking about yawning, a phenomenon known as "contagious yawning". Yawning is mediated by a distributed network of brainstem and supratentorial brain regions, the components of which are shared with other airway behaviors including respiration, swallowing, and mastication. Nevertheless, the possibility of behavioral coordination between yawning and other brainstem-mediated functions has not been examined. Here we show, with a double-blind methodology, a greater-than-fivefold increase in rest (saliva) swallowing rate during the 10-s period immediately following contagious yawning elicited in 14 adult humans through the viewing of videotaped yawn stimuli. Sixty-five percent of yawns were followed by a swallow within 10 s and swallows accounted for 26 % of all behaviors produced during this post-yawn period. This novel finding of a tight temporal coupling between yawning and swallowing provides preliminary evidence that yawning and swallowing are physiologically related, thus extending current models of upper airway physiology and neurophysiology. Moreover, our finding suggests the possibility that yawning plays a role in eliciting rest swallowing, a view not considered in previous theories of yawning. As such, the present demonstration of a temporal association between yawning and swallowing motivates a re-examination of the longstanding question, "Why do we yawn?".

  14. Report on safety related occurrences and reactor trips July 1, 1977 - December 31, 1977

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andermo, L.; Sundman, B.

    1974-04-01

    This is a systematically arranged report on all reported safety related occurrences and reactor trips in Swedish nuclear power plants in operation during July 1 to December 31, 1977 inclusive. The facilities involved are Barsebaeck 1 and 2, Oskarshamn 1 and 2 and Ringhals 1 and 2. During this period of 6 months 48 safety related occurrences and 49 reactor trips have been reported to the Nuclear Power Inspectorate. Included is also one incident June 21 in Barsebaeck 2 which was not included in the last compilation of occurrences. As earlier experiences have shown it is to the greatest extent the conventional components which bring about the safety related occurrences or occurrences leading to outages or power reductions. However, the component errors discovered in the safety related systems have not affected the function of their redundant systems and other diverse systems have not been involved. Therefore the reactor safety has been satisfactory. The total number of reactor trips have increased nearly 30% since the last period. Those occurred during power operation however, were less. More than 50% of the reactor trips happened in the shutdown condition. The fact that even small deviations from prescribed operation result in automatic and safe shut down of the reactor, does not always imply a conflict with operational availability. The greatest outages are caused by occurrences withou02068NRM 0000169 450

  15. Relation of Cloud Occurrence Frequency, Overlap, and Effective Thickness Derived from CALIPSO and CloudSat Merged Cloud Vertical Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Seiji; Sun-Mack, Sunny; Miller, Walter F.; Rose, Fred G.; Chen, Yan; Minnis, Patrick; Wielicki, Bruce A.

    2009-01-01

    A cloud frequency of occurrence matrix is generated using merged cloud vertical profile derived from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR). The matrix contains vertical profiles of cloud occurrence frequency as a function of the uppermost cloud top. It is shown that the cloud fraction and uppermost cloud top vertical pro les can be related by a set of equations when the correlation distance of cloud occurrence, which is interpreted as an effective cloud thickness, is introduced. The underlying assumption in establishing the above relation is that cloud overlap approaches the random overlap with increasing distance separating cloud layers and that the probability of deviating from the random overlap decreases exponentially with distance. One month of CALIPSO and CloudSat data support these assumptions. However, the correlation distance sometimes becomes large, which might be an indication of precipitation. The cloud correlation distance is equivalent to the de-correlation distance introduced by Hogan and Illingworth [2000] when cloud fractions of both layers in a two-cloud layer system are the same.

  16. Report on safety related occurrences and reactor trips July 1, 1979 - December 31, 1979

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsson, S.; Andermo, L.

    1980-01-01

    This is a report on all reported safety related occurrences and reactor trips in Swedish nuclear power plants in operation during July 1 to December 31, 1979 inclusive. The facilities involved are Barsebaeck 1 and 2, Oskarshamn 1 and 2 and Ringhals 1 and 2. During this period of 6 months 76 safety related occurrences and 27 reactor trips have been reported to the Nuclear Power Inspectorate. It is to the greatest extent conventional components such as valves and pumps which bring about the safety related occurrences or occurrences leading to outages or power reductions. However, the component errors discovered in the safety related systems have not affected the function of their redundant system and other diverse systems have not been involved. Therefore the reactor safety has been satisfactory. The total number of reactor trips are normal. The average value for these 6 months is 4.5 trips/unit. Approximetely one half of the reactor trips happened at zero or very low power operation. The fact that even small deviations from prescribed operation result in an automatic and safe shut down of the reactor, does not always imply a conflict with operational availability. The greatest outages are caused by occurrences without safety significance. (author)

  17. Report on safety related occurrences and reactor trips July 1, 1976-December 31, 1976

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andermo, L.

    1977-04-01

    This is a systematically arranged report on all reported safety related occurrences and reactor trips in Swedish nuclear power plants in operation during July 1, 1976 to December 31, 1976 inclusive. The facilities involved are Oskarshamn 1 and 2, Ringhals 1 and 2 and Barsebaeck 1. During this period of the 6 months 37 safety related occurrences and 34 reactor trips have been reported to the Nuclear Power Inspectorate. As earlier experiences have shown it is to the greatest extent the conventional components which bring about the safety related occurrences or occurrences leading to outages or power reductions. However, the component errors discovered in the safety related systems have not affected the function of their redundant systems and other diverse systems have not been involved. Therefore the reactor safety has been satisfactory. The fact that even small deviations from prescribed operation results in automatic and safe shut down of the reactor, does not always imply a conflict with operational availability. The number of reactor trips are almost as low as during the last period, which is a drastic reduction compared to earlier time periods. The greatest outages are caused by occurrences without safety significance.(author)

  18. Alcohol Increases Delay and Probability Discounting of Condom-Protected Sex: A Novel Vector for Alcohol-Related HIV Transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Patrick S; Sweeney, Mary M; Herrmann, Evan S; Johnson, Matthew W

    2016-06-01

    Alcohol use, especially at binge levels, is associated with sexual HIV risk behavior, but the mechanisms through which alcohol increases sexual risk taking are not well-examined. Delay discounting, that is, devaluation of future consequences as a function of delay to their occurrence, has been implicated in a variety of problem behaviors, including risky sexual behavior. Probability discounting is studied with a similar framework as delay discounting, but is a distinct process in which a consequence is devalued because it is uncertain or probabilistic. Twenty-three, nondependent alcohol users (13 male, 10 female; mean age = 25.3 years old) orally consumed alcohol (1 g/kg) or placebo in 2 separate experimental sessions. During sessions, participants completed tasks examining delay and probability discounting of hypothetical condom-protected sex (Sexual Delay Discounting Task, Sexual Probability Discounting Task) and of hypothetical and real money. Alcohol decreased the likelihood that participants would wait to have condom-protected sex versus having immediate, unprotected sex. Alcohol also decreased the likelihood that participants would use an immediately available condom given a specified level of sexually transmitted infection (STI) risk. Alcohol did not affect delay discounting of money, but it did increase participants' preferences for larger, probabilistic monetary rewards over smaller, certain rewards. Acute, binge-level alcohol intoxication may increase sexual HIV risk by decreasing willingness to delay sex in order to acquire a condom in situations where one is not immediately available, and by decreasing sensitivity to perceived risk of STI contraction. These findings suggest that delay and probability discounting are critical, but heretofore unrecognized, processes that may mediate the relations between alcohol use and HIV risk. Copyright © 2016 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  19. Relative level of occurrence of the principal heuristics in Nigeria property valuation

    OpenAIRE

    Iroham C.O.,; Ogunba, O.A.; Oloyede, S.A.

    2013-01-01

    The neglect of the other principal heuristics namely avaialability, representative and positivity in real estate behaviourial property research as against the exclusive focus on anchoring and adjustment heuristics invariably results to a lopsided research. This work studied the four principal heuristics in property behaviourial property valutaion in a bid to discovering its relative level of occurrence. The study adopted a cross-sectional questionnaire survey approach of 159 of the 270 Head O...

  20. The relative impact of sizing errors on steam generator tube failure probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cizelj, L.; Dvorsek, T.

    1998-01-01

    The Outside Diameter Stress Corrosion Cracking (ODSCC) at tube support plates is currently the major degradation mechanism affecting the steam generator tubes made of Inconel 600. This caused development and licensing of degradation specific maintenance approaches, which addressed two main failure modes of the degraded piping: tube rupture; and excessive leakage through degraded tubes. A methodology aiming at assessing the efficiency of a given set of possible maintenance approaches has already been proposed by the authors. It pointed out better performance of the degradation specific over generic approaches in (1) lower probability of single and multiple steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), (2) lower estimated accidental leak rates and (3) less tubes plugged. A sensitivity analysis was also performed pointing out the relative contributions of uncertain input parameters to the tube rupture probabilities. The dominant contribution was assigned to the uncertainties inherent to the regression models used to correlate the defect size and tube burst pressure. The uncertainties, which can be estimated from the in-service inspections, are further analysed in this paper. The defect growth was found to have significant and to some extent unrealistic impact on the probability of single tube rupture. Since the defect growth estimates were based on the past inspection records they strongly depend on the sizing errors. Therefore, an attempt was made to filter out the sizing errors and to arrive at more realistic estimates of the defect growth. The impact of different assumptions regarding sizing errors on the tube rupture probability was studied using a realistic numerical example. The data used is obtained from a series of inspection results from Krsko NPP with 2 Westinghouse D-4 steam generators. The results obtained are considered useful in safety assessment and maintenance of affected steam generators. (author)

  1. Report on safety related occurrences and reactor trips January 1 - June 30, 1985

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-01-01

    This is a systematically arranged report on all safety-related occurrences and reacotr trips in Swedish nuclear power plants in operation during the period from January 1 to June 30 1985. It is based on the reports submitted by the utilities to the Swedish Nuclear power Inspectorate according to Technical Specifications. Twice a year since 1974 the Inspectorate has issued a compilation on such reported occurrences and reactor trips. Starting with the compilation of the second half of 1982 some new features have been introduced. The most important change is that the volume of information has been increased. The full test, provided by the utilities when reporting the incidents, is now attached to the codified information and also the layout has been altered to facilitate reading. As in the previous reports the occurrences and reactor trips are arranged both alphabetically by facility name and chronologically by report number for each facility. Electricity generation charts for each facility are also presented. The primary purpose of this report is thus to present all the information furnished by utlities when they submit their reports according the Technical Specifications. The only evaluation made by the Inspecotrate is the categorization on the incidents. Like the previous reports this one also presents frequency of incidents as related to affected component, cause of incident etc. The difference is that only information reported by the utilities is used. This is the reason why a considerable proportion of the incidents are categorized as 'other fault'. (author)

  2. Relative importance of habitat area and isolation for bird occurrence patterns in a naturally patchy landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, T.L.; Johnson, E.J.; Bissonette, J.A.

    2009-01-01

    There is debate among ecologists about whether total habitat area or patch arrangement contributes most to population and/or community responses to fragmented or patchy landscapes. We tested the relative effects of patch area and isolation for predicting bird occurrence in a naturally patchy landscape in the Bear River Mountains of Northern Utah, USA. We selected focal patches (mountain meadows) ranging in elevation from 1,920 to 2,860 m and in size from 0.6 to 182 ha. Breeding birds were sampled in each focal meadow during the summers of 2003 and 2004 using variable-distance point transects. Logistic regression and likelihood-based model selection were used to determine the relationship between likelihood of occurrence of three bird species (Brewer's sparrow, vesper sparrow, and white-crowned sparrow) and area, isolation, and proximity metrics. We used model weights and model-averaged confidence intervals to assess the importance of each predictor variable. Plots of area versus isolation were used to evaluate complex relationships between the variables. We found that meadow area was the most important variable for explaining occurrence for two species, and that isolation was the most important for the other. We also found that the absolute distance was more appropriate for evaluating isolation responses than was the species-specific proximity metric. Our findings add clarity to the debate between ecologists regarding the relative importance of area and isolation in species responses to patchy landscapes.

  3. The relation between Puelche wind and the occurrence of forest fires in Bio Bio region, Chile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inzunza, Juan Carlos

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a study of the relation between Puelche wind and forest fires in the Bio Bio Region, Chile. To establish a relationship between Puelche wind and forest fire generation, different data analysis methods and statistics test were applied. The relation between the total number of fires in the season and the days with Puelche wind were not statistically significant. When analyzing daily averages of fires produced with and without Puelche wind for each season, the highest daily fire occurrence values were found when there is Puelche wind, indicating that this event produces a strong effect on the daily occurrence of fires since these increased by 90% in comparison to the days without Puelche wind. The results of the difference between the number of fires with and without Puelche wind with respect to the average number of total fires indicate that the days with Puelche wind surpass both the total and the average values for days without Puelche wind, confirming the strong effect that a Puelche wind day has on forest fires. The greatest number of fires produced with Puelche wind occurs in the Province of Concepcion. This Province is the most affected by Puelche wind conditions despite having the smallest surface area for the region studied. Still, it is the most populous province of the region and has the greatest surface area with forests and plantations with respect to its size. Consequently, Puelche wind is a factor that increases the occurrence of forest fires and favors their propagation.

  4. Contextual events related to the occurrence of challenging behavior in educational settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alba CORTINA SERRA

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Challenging behaviors (CB displayed by people with intellectual disabilities (ID have a negative effect on their quality of life. The operant theory principles emphasize the relationship between these behaviors and the environment where they take place. This study aimed to identify the contextual variables that are closely related to the occurrence of CB exhibited by children who attend a special school by using an indirect functional assessment instrument; the Contextual Assessment Inventory. Therefore, 17 students have participated in this study where a total of 25 behaviors have been assessed. The results suggested that the social/cultural and the nature of the task or activity categories were more strongly associated with the occurrence of CB. Finally, results are discussed in terms of implications for practitioners. Future researches might address the importance of prevention and universal educational systems.

  5. Factors related to occurrence and distribution of selected bacterial and protozoan pathogens in Pennsylvania streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duris, Joseph W.; Reif, Andrew G.; Donna A. Crouse,; Isaacs, Natasha M.

    2013-01-01

    The occurrence and distribution of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and bacterial and protozoan pathogens are controlled by diverse factors. To investigate these factors in Pennsylvania streams, 217 samples were collected quarterly from a 27-station water-quality monitoring network from July 2007 through August 2009. Samples were analyzed for concentrations of Escherichia coli (EC) and enterococci (ENT) indicator bacteria, concentrations of Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts, and the presence of four genes related to pathogenic types of EC (eaeA, stx2, stx1, rfbO157) plus three microbial source tracking (MST) gene markers that are also associated with pathogenic ENT and EC (esp, LTIIa, STII). Water samples were concurrently analyzed for basic water chemistry, physical measures of water quality, nutrients, metals, and a suite of 79 organic compounds that included hormones, pharmaceuticals, and antibiotics. For each sample location, stream discharge was measured by using standardized methods at the time of sample collection, and ancillary sample site information, such as land use and geological characteristics, was compiled. Samples exceeding recreational water quality criteria were more likely to contain all measured pathogen genes but notCryptosporidium or Giardia (oo)cysts. FIB and Giardia density and frequency of eaeA gene occurrence were significantly related to season. When discharge at a sampling location was high (>75th percentile of daily mean discharge), there were greater densities of FIB and Giardia, and the stx2, rfbO157, STII, and esp genes were found more frequently than at other discharge conditions. Giardia occurrence was likely related to nonpoint sources, which are highly influential during seasonal overland transport resulting from snowmelt and elevated precipitation in late winter and spring in Pennsylvania. When MST markers of human, swine, or bovine origin were present, samples more frequently carried the eaeA, stx2

  6. The association between supportive relatives and lower occurrence of anxiety and depression in heart patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Camilla; Zinckernagel, Line; Schneekloth, Nanna

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Approximately 30-40% of heart patients develop anxiety and/or depression, which might influence recovery and long-term survival. Research has suggested that support from relatives may decrease anxiety and depression among heart patients; however, the results are inconsistent and often...... based on small study populations. AIM: The paper aimed to investigate the association between having supportive relatives and the occurrence of anxiety and depression in heart patients. METHODS: A population-based cross-sectional study among Danish patients diagnosed with ischemic heart disease, atrial...... fibrillation, heart failure, or heart valve disease. Presence of supportive relatives was measured as the degree to which the patients felt that they had relatives they could count on, while symptoms of anxiety and depression were measured by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Multiple logistic...

  7. Fear or food ? abundance of red fox in relation to occurrence of lynx and wolf

    OpenAIRE

    Wikenros, Camilla; Aronsson, Malin; Liberg, Olof; Jarnemo, Anders; Hansson, Jessica; Wallgren, M?rtha; Sand, H?kan; Bergstr?m, Roger

    2017-01-01

    Apex predators may affect mesopredators through intraguild predation and/or supply of carrion from their prey, causing a trade-off between avoidance and attractiveness. We used wildlife triangle snow-tracking data to investigate the abundance of red fox (Vulpes vulpes) in relation to lynx (Lynx lynx) and wolf (Canis lupus) occurrence as well as land composition and vole (Microtus spp.)?density. Data from the Swedish wolf-monitoring system and VHF/GPS-collared wolves were used to study the eff...

  8. Occurrence of two different intragenic deletions in two male relatives affected with Duchenne muscular dystrophy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mostacciuolo, M.L.; Miorin, M.; Vitiello, L.; Rampazzo, A.; Fanin, M.; Angelini, C.; Danieli, G.A. [Univ. of Padua (Italy)

    1994-03-01

    The occurrence of 2 different intragenic deletions (exons 10-44 and exon 45, respectively) is reported in 2 male relatives affected with Duchenne muscular dystrophy, both showing the same haplotype for DNA markers not included in the deleted segment. The 2 different deletions seem to have occurred independently in the same X chromosome. This finding, together with other reports, suggests possibly an increased predisposition to mutations within the DMD locus in some families. Therefore, when dealing with prenatal diagnosis, the investigation on fetal DNA cannot be restricted only to the region in which a mutation was previously identified in the family. 14 refs., 1 fig.

  9. Report on safety related occurrences and reactor trips January 1 - June 30, 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    This is a systematically arranged report on all safety-related occurrences and reactor trips in Swedish nuclear power plants in operation during the period from January 1 to June 30 1984. It is based on the reports submitted by the utilities to the Swedish Nuclear Inspectorate according to Technical Specifications. Twice a year since 1974 the Inspectorate has issued a compilation on such reported occurrences and reactor trips. Starting with the compilation of the second half of 1982 some new features have been introduced. The most important change is that the volume of information has been increased. The full text, provided by the utilities when reporting the incidents, is now attached to the codified information and also the layout has been altered to facilitate reading. As in the previous reports the occurrences and reactor trips are arranged both alphabetically by facility name and chronologically by report number for each facility. Electricity generation charts for each facility are also presented. The primary purpose of this report is thus to present all the information furnished by the utilities when they submit their reports according to Technical Specifications. The only evaluation made by the Inspectorate is the categorization on the incidents. Like the previous reports this one also presents frequency of incidents as related to affected component, cause of incident etc. The difference is that only information reported by the utilities is used. This is the reason why a considerable proportion of the incidents are categorized as other component or other fault. Sometime in the future, however, the Inspectorate plants to put out a special report containing its own analyses of the most interesting events along with processed statistics and other information. (author)

  10. RYR1-related rhabdomyolysis: A common but probably underdiagnosed manifestation of skeletal muscle ryanodine receptor dysfunction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voermans, N C; Snoeck, M; Jungbluth, H

    2016-10-01

    Mutations in the skeletal muscle ryanodine receptor (RYR1) gene are associated with a wide spectrum of inherited myopathies presenting throughout life. Malignant hyperthermia susceptibility (MHS)-related RYR1 mutations have emerged as a common cause of exertional rhabdomyolysis, accounting for up to 30% of rhabdomyolysis episodes in otherwise healthy individuals. Common triggers are exercise and heat and, less frequently, viral infections, alcohol and drugs. Most subjects are normally strong and have no personal or family history of malignant hyperthermia. Heat intolerance and cold-induced muscle stiffness may be a feature. Recognition of this (probably not uncommon) rhabdomyolysis cause is vital for effective counselling, to identify potentially malignant hyperthermia-susceptible individuals and to adapt training regimes. Studies in various animal models provide insights regarding possible pathophysiological mechanisms and offer therapeutic perspectives. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  11. Relative K-electron capture probabilities in the decay of 99Rh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, N.R.; Chandrasekhar Rao, M.V.S.; Satyanarayana, G.; Sastry, D.L.; Chintalapudi, S.N.

    2000-01-01

    The relative K-electron capture probabilities (P K ) to the 1383.23, 896.98, 618.09, 442.78 and 322.43 keV levels in 99 Ru in the decay of 99 Rh are measured employing the X-γ internal sum-coincidence technique. The measured values P K 1383.23=0.851±0.066, P K 896.98=0.834±0.061, P K 618.09=0.870±0.01, P K 442.78=0.882±0.035 and P K 322.43=0.852±0.061 are found to be in good agreement with the theoretical values. The dependence of P K on EC transition energy is discussed. (author)

  12. Arsenic concentrations, related environmental factors, and the predicted probability of elevated arsenic in groundwater in Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Eliza L.; Low, Dennis J.

    2013-01-01

    Analytical results for arsenic in water samples from 5,023 wells obtained during 1969–2007 across Pennsylvania were compiled and related to other associated groundwater-quality and environmental factors and used to predict the probability of elevated arsenic concentrations, defined as greater than or equal to 4.0 micrograms per liter (µg/L), in groundwater. Arsenic concentrations of 4.0 µg/L or greater (elevated concentrations) were detected in 18 percent of samples across Pennsylvania; 8 percent of samples had concentrations that equaled or exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s drinking-water maximum contaminant level of 10.0 µg/L. The highest arsenic concentration was 490.0 µg/L.

  13. A 'new' Cromer-related high frequency antigen probably antithetical to WES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, G L; Green, C A; Darr, F W; Anderson, H; Sistonen, P

    1987-01-01

    An antibody to a high frequency antigen, made in a WES+ Black antenatal patient (Wash.), failed to react with the red cells of a presumed WES+ homozygote and is, therefore, probably antithetical to anti-WES. Like anti-WES, it reacted with papain, ficin, trypsin or neuraminidase treated cells but not with alpha-chymotrypsin or pronase treated cells and was specifically inhibited by concentrated serum. It also reacted more strongly in titration with WES- cells than with WES+ cells. The antibody is Cromer-related as it failed to react with Inab phenotype (IFC-) cells and reacted only weakly with Dr(a-) cells. Wash. cells and those of the other possible WES+ homozygote are Cr(a+) Tc(a+b-c-) Dr(a+) IFC+ but reacted only very weakly with anti-Esa.

  14. Investigation on Abnormal Iron Metabolism and Related Inflammation in Parkinson Disease Patients with Probable RBD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yang; Yu, Shu-Yang; Zuo, Li-Jun; Piao, Ying-Shan; Cao, Chen-Jie; Wang, Fang; Chen, Ze-Jie; Du, Yang; Lian, Teng-Hong; Liu, Gai-Fen; Wang, Ya-Jie; Chan, Piu; Chen, Sheng-Di; Wang, Xiao-Min; Zhang, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Objective To investigate potential mechanisms involving abnormal iron metabolism and related inflammation in Parkinson disease (PD) patients with probable rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (PRBD). Methods Total 210 PD patients and 31 controls were consecutively recruited. PD patients were evaluated by RBD Screening Questionnaire (RBDSQ) and classified into PRBD and probable no RBD (NPRBD) groups. Demographics information were recorded and clinical symptoms were evaluated by series of rating scales. Levels of iron and related proteins and inflammatory factors in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and serum were detected. Comparisons among control, NPRBD and PRBD groups and correlation analyses between RBDSQ score and levels of above factors were performed. Results (1)The frequency of PRBD in PD patients is 31.90%. (2)PRBD group has longer disease duration, more advanced disease stage, severer motor symptoms and more non-motor symptoms than NPRBD group. (3)In CSF, levels of iron, transferrin, NO and IL–1β in PRBD group are prominently increased. RBDSQ score is positively correlated with the levels of iron, transferrin, NO and IL–1β in PD group. Iron level is positively correlated with the levels of NO and IL–1β in PD group. (4)In serum, transferrin level is prominently decreased in PRBD group. PGE2 level in PRBD group is drastically enhanced. RBDSQ score exhibits a positive correlation with PGE2 level in PD group. Conclusions PRBD is common in PD patients. PRBD group has severer motor symptoms and more non-motor symptoms. Excessive iron in brain resulted from abnormal iron metabolism in central and peripheral systems is correlated with PRBD through neuroinflammation. PMID:26431210

  15. Edge Probability and Pixel Relativity-Based Speckle Reducing Anisotropic Diffusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Deepak; Chaudhury, Santanu; Sarkar, Mukul; Soin, Arvinder Singh; Sharma, Vivek

    2018-02-01

    Anisotropic diffusion filters are one of the best choices for speckle reduction in the ultrasound images. These filters control the diffusion flux flow using local image statistics and provide the desired speckle suppression. However, inefficient use of edge characteristics results in either oversmooth image or an image containing misinterpreted spurious edges. As a result, the diagnostic quality of the images becomes a concern. To alleviate such problems, a novel anisotropic diffusion-based speckle reducing filter is proposed in this paper. A probability density function of the edges along with pixel relativity information is used to control the diffusion flux flow. The probability density function helps in removing the spurious edges and the pixel relativity reduces the oversmoothing effects. Furthermore, the filtering is performed in superpixel domain to reduce the execution time, wherein a minimum of 15% of the total number of image pixels can be used. For performance evaluation, 31 frames of three synthetic images and 40 real ultrasound images are used. In most of the experiments, the proposed filter shows a better performance as compared to the state-of-the-art filters in terms of the speckle region's signal-to-noise ratio and mean square error. It also shows a comparative performance for figure of merit and structural similarity measure index. Furthermore, in the subjective evaluation, performed by the expert radiologists, the proposed filter's outputs are preferred for the improved contrast and sharpness of the object boundaries. Hence, the proposed filtering framework is suitable to reduce the unwanted speckle and improve the quality of the ultrasound images.

  16. Packaging- and transportation-related occurrence reports, October-December 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Welch, M.J.; Dickerson, L.S.; Armstrong, C.J.

    1995-02-01

    The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Packaging and Transportation Safety Program (PATS), which is sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environment, Safety and Health, Office of Facility Safety Analysis, EH-32, has been charged with the responsibility of retrieving reports and information pertaining to transportation or packaging incidents from the Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS). These selected reports are being analyzed for trends, impact on EH-32 policies and concerns, and lessons learned concerning transportation and packaging safety. This task is designed not only to keep EH-32 aware of current packaging and transportation incidents and potential transportation and packaging problems that may need attention on DOE sites but also to allow future dissemination of lessons learned to the Operations Offices and, subsequently, to management and operating contractors. This report, which covers the period from October 2 to December 31, 1994, covers the weekly tabular reports OR-94-40 through OR-94-52. These 12 reports, which contained a total of 75 occurrence reports (ORs) relating to packaging and transportation issues, were submitted to EH-32 for its information and use during this quarter. The 75 ORs that were selected from the hundreds reviewed are listed. The second column of Table I contains the PATS nature of occurrence (NOC) coding for the respective OR, and the third column lists the weekly report issue in which the OR was originally transmitted to DOE-Headquarters (HQ). The Lesson Learned bulletins produced this quarter are included. These two bulletins have been distributed to a large packaging and transportation safety audience and are included as a natural outgrowth of the quarterly reports

  17. Occurrence of Autoimmune Diseases Related to the Vaccine against Yellow Fever

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Cristina Vanderley Oliveira

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Yellow fever is an infectious disease, endemic in South America and Africa. This is a potentially serious illness, with lethality between 5 and 40% of cases. The most effective preventive vaccine is constituted by the attenuated virus strain 17D, developed in 1937. It is considered safe and effective, conferring protection in more than 90% in 10 years. Adverse effects are known as mild reactions (allergies, transaminases transient elevation, fever, headache and severe (visceral and neurotropic disease related to vaccine. However, little is known about its potential to induce autoimmune responses. This systematic review aims to identify the occurrence of autoinflammatory diseases related to 17D vaccine administration. Six studies were identified describing 13 possible cases. The diseases were Guillain-Barré syndrome, multiple sclerosis, multiple points evanescent syndrome, acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, autoimmune hepatitis, and Kawasaki disease. The data suggest that 17D vaccination may play a role in the mechanism of loss of self-tolerance.

  18. Spatial analysis of geologic and hydrologic features relating to sinkhole occurrence in Jefferson County, West Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doctor, Daniel H.; Doctor, Katarina Z.

    2012-01-01

    In this study the influence of geologic features related to sinkhole susceptibility was analyzed and the results were mapped for the region of Jefferson County, West Virginia. A model of sinkhole density was constructed using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) that estimated the relations among discrete geologic or hydrologic features and sinkhole density at each sinkhole location. Nine conditioning factors on sinkhole occurrence were considered as independent variables: distance to faults, fold axes, fracture traces oriented along bedrock strike, fracture traces oriented across bedrock strike, ponds, streams, springs, quarries, and interpolated depth to groundwater. GWR model parameter estimates for each variable were evaluated for significance, and the results were mapped. The results provide visual insight into the influence of these variables on localized sinkhole density, and can be used to provide an objective means of weighting conditioning factors in models of sinkhole susceptibility or hazard risk.

  19. Occurrence of Salmonella in retail beef and related meat products in Zaria, Nigeria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tafida, S.Y.; Kabir, J.; Kwaga, J.K.P.

    2013-01-01

    Salmonella is among the most important food borne pathogens worldwide contaminating a wide range of animal products including meat products. Human illnesses due to this pathogen are attributed to poor biosecurity in production, improper processing and handling of meat and meat products....... This is more likely where surveillance and regulatory control is weak. There is however limited information on the occurrence of these pathogens in foods in Nigeria. The extent of contamination of retail-beef and related meat products with Salmonellae in Zaria was evaluated. A total of 435 retailed beef...... and related meat products consisting of muscle meat, offal and processed meat products were tested for the presence of Salmonella species. Sample types included raw meat, ‘suya’ (roasted meat), ‘balangu’ (barbequed meat), ‘Kilishi’ (spiced sun dried meat) and ‘dambu’ (shredded fried meat). Samples were...

  20. The Occurrence of Flavonoids and Related Compounds in Flower Sections of Papaver nudicaule

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bettina Dudek

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Flavonoids play an important role in the pigmentation of flowers; in addition, they protect petals and other flower parts from UV irradiation and oxidative stress. Nudicaulins, flavonoid-derived indole alkaloids, along with pelargonidin, kaempferol, and gossypetin glycosides, are responsible for the color of white, red, orange, and yellow petals of different Papaver nudicaule cultivars. The color of the petals is essential to attract pollinators. We investigated the occurrence of flavonoids in basal and apical petal areas, stamens, and capsules of four differently colored P. nudicaule cultivars by means of chromatographic and spectroscopic methods. The results reveal the specific occurrence of gossypetin glycosides in the basal spot of all cultivars and demonstrate that kaempferol glycosides are the major secondary metabolites in the capsules. Unlike previous reports, the yellow-colored stamens of all four P. nudicaule cultivars are shown to contain not nudicaulins but carotenoids. In addition, the presence of nudicaulins, pelargonidin, and kaempferol glycosides in the apical petal area was confirmed. The flavonoids and related compounds in the investigated flower parts and cultivars of P. nudicaule are profiled, and their potential ecological role is discussed.

  1. Digital integration of geological and aeroradiometric data for probability mapping of uranium occurrences in parts of south-eastern Rajasthan, India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chawla, A.S.; Katti, V.J.; Kak, S.N.; Das, S.K.

    1993-01-01

    Integration and evaluation of geological, radio geochemical, and magnetic information of Umra-Udaisagar and Sarara inlier area, Udaipur district, Rajasthan was attempted. Seventeen lithostructural variables from colour infrared (CIR) photo geological analogue maps were interpreted, radio geochemical and magnetic variables thematically evaluated from airborne gamma-ray spectrometric (AGRS) and aero magnetic (AM) digital data were co-registered using a sequential grid matrix of 500 m x 500 m. The variables were quantified using theme-specific equations and digitized in simple Boolean representation format, depending on the presence or absence of a variable, its positive or negative interest, and/or greater than or less than a theme-specific value in each cell. The database so generated was subjected to a software programme weighted modelling wherein, weights for each variable are computed based on conditional probability method, and favorability index maps are generated by discriminant objective analysis. Areas with high probability for uranium mineralisation were delineated by computing composite coincidence of cells with high favorability index value considering each variable as a control variable. Critical analysis of weights computed for each variable in different sets predicts the importance of control of the variable to uranium mineralisation. This attempt has resulted in delineating several new high-probability zones of uranium enrichment and indicated a regional structural control in the area. (author). 11 refs., 4 figs

  2. DOE Safety Metrics Indicator Program (SMIP) Fiscal Year 2000 Annual Report of Packaging- and Transportation-related Occurrences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickerson, L.S.

    2001-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS) is an interactive computer system designed to support DOE-owned or -operated facilities in reporting and processing information concerning occurrences related to facility operations. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been charged by the DOE National Transportation Program Albuquerque (NTPA) with the responsibility of retrieving reports and information pertaining to packaging and transportation (P and T) incidents from the centralized ORPS database. These selected reports are analyzed for safety concerns, trends, potential impact on P and T operations, and ''lessons learned'' in P and T safety. To support this analysis and trending, the Safety Metrics Indicator Program (SMIP) was established by the NTPA in fiscal year (FY) 1998. Its chief goal is to augment historical reporting of occurrence-based information by providing (1) management notification of those incidents that require attention, (2) an accurate picture of contractors' P and T-related performance, and (3) meaningful statistics on occurrences at particular sites, including comparisons among different contractor sites and between DOE and the private sector. This annual report contains information on those P and T-related occurrences reported to the ORPS during the period from October 1, 1999, through September 30, 2000. Only those incidents that occur in preparation for transport, during transport, and during unloading of hazardous material are considered as packaging- or transportation-related occurrences

  3. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FALLEN IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN THE HILLY AREA OF CLUJ COUNTY - GENESIS, DISTRIBUTION AND PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BLAGA IRINA

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The maximum amounts of rainfall are usually characterized by high intensity, and their effects on the substrate are revealed, at slope level, by the deepening of the existing forms of torrential erosion and also by the formation of new ones, and by landslide processes. For the 1971-2000 period, for the weather stations in the hilly area of Cluj County: Cluj- Napoca, Dej, Huedin and Turda the highest values of rainfall amounts fallen in 24, 48 and 72 hours were analyzed and extracted, based on which the variation and the spatial and temporal distribution of the precipitation were analyzed. The annual probability of exceedance of maximum rainfall amounts fallen in short time intervals (24, 48 and 72 hours, based on thresholds and class values was determined, using climatological practices and the Hyfran program facilities.

  4. Probability that a specific cancer and a specified radiation exposure are causally related

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breitenstein, B.D.

    1988-01-01

    It is fundamental that a given cancer case cannot be attributed with absolute certainty to a prior ionizing radiation exposure, whatever the level of exposure. It is possible to estimate the probability of a causal relationship based on data and models that have been inferred from group statistics. Two types of information are needed to make these probability calculations: natural cancer incidence rates and risks of cancer induction from ionizing radiation. Cancer incidence rates for the United States are available in the report of the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute. Estimates of the risk of cancer induction from ionizing radiation have been published by the Advisory Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) of the National Academy of Sciences, the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), and the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Using the parameters discussed above, the probability of causation formulation estimates the probability that a person who develops a particular cancer after a known quantifiable radiation exposure has the cancer as a result of the exposure. In 1985, the National Institutes of Health, responding to a U.S. Congressional mandate, published radioepidemiologic tables using the probability-of-causation method

  5. Scaling Qualitative Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2017-01-01

    There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

  6. Equipment-related incidents in the operating room: an analysis of occurrence, underlying causes and consequences for the clinical process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wubben, I.; van Manen, Jeanette Gabrielle; van den Akker, B.J.; Vaartjes, S.R.; van Harten, Willem H.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Equipment-related incidents in the operating room (OR) can affect quality of care. In this study, the authors determined the occurrence and effects on the care process in a large teaching hospital. - Methods: During a 4-week period, OR nurses reported equipment-related incidents during

  7. Relative level of occurrence of the principal heuristics in Nigeria property valuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iroham C.O.,

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The neglect of the other principal heuristics namely avaialability, representative and positivity in real estate behaviourial property research as against the exclusive focus on anchoring and adjustment heuristics invariably results to a lopsided research. This work studied the four principal heuristics in property behaviourial property valutaion in a bid to discovering its relative level of occurrence. The study adopted a cross-sectional questionnaire survey approach of 159 of the 270 Head Offices of Estate Surveying and Valuation firms in Lagos Metropolis, while 29 and 30 questionnaire were distributed to the Head Offices of the entire Estate Surveying and Valuation Firms in Abuja and Port-Harcourt respectively. The data gotten was analyzed with the aid of Statistical Package for the Social Sciences first using frequency distributions/means and the data so analyzed was further analyzed using maximum and minimum values, means/standard deviations and ultimately ranking of such means. The result revealed that respondents use the various principal heuristics in this decreasing order of magnitude: availability heuristics (26.77%, anchoring and adjustment heuristics (18.62%; representative heuristics (15.63% and least of all positivity heuristics (10.41%. The authors thereby opined that emphasis be placed more on availability heuristics research particularly as usage of heuristcis (anchoring and adjustment has been seen to influence valuation inconsistency/accuracy

  8. Fear or food - abundance of red fox in relation to occurrence of lynx and wolf.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wikenros, Camilla; Aronsson, Malin; Liberg, Olof; Jarnemo, Anders; Hansson, Jessica; Wallgren, Märtha; Sand, Håkan; Bergström, Roger

    2017-08-22

    Apex predators may affect mesopredators through intraguild predation and/or supply of carrion from their prey, causing a trade-off between avoidance and attractiveness. We used wildlife triangle snow-tracking data to investigate the abundance of red fox (Vulpes vulpes) in relation to lynx (Lynx lynx) and wolf (Canis lupus) occurrence as well as land composition and vole (Microtus spp.) density. Data from the Swedish wolf-monitoring system and VHF/GPS-collared wolves were used to study the effect of wolf pack size and time since wolf territory establishment on fox abundance. Bottom-up processes were more influential than top-down effects as the proportion of arable land was the key indicator of fox abundance at the landscape level. At this spatial scale, there was no effect of wolf abundance on fox abundance, whereas lynx abundance had a positive effect. In contrast, at the wolf territory level there was a negative effect of wolves on fox abundance when including detailed information of pack size and time since territory establishment, whereas there was no effect of lynx abundance. This study shows that different apex predator species may affect mesopredator abundance in different ways and that the results may be dependent on the spatiotemporal scale and resolution of the data.

  9. Sexual inactivity and occurrence of STIs in relation to weight status in women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gunge, Vibeke B; Juul, Kirsten E; van den Brule, Adriaan Jc

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine sexual inactivity and occurrence of selected sexually transmitted infections in relation to body mass index. We used data from two large Danish population-based cross-sectional studies conducted in 1991-1995 (HPV study: 6869 women, aged 22-32 years) and in 2004......-2005 (Liva study: 19,484 women, aged 18-45 years). Data were collected using a structured interview and measured weight, height, high-risk human papillomavirus DNA, Chlamydia DNA for the HPV study and a structured questionnaire for the Liva study. Overweight and obese women were more likely to have had...... no lifetime sexual partner or no sexual partner in the last year, e.g., obese women had a threefold (95 percent CI: 1.95-5.04) odds ratio of having had no sexual partner in the last year compared to normal weight women. Additionally, overweight and obese women had a lower likelihood of genital warts and high...

  10. Relation of submarine landslide to hydrate occurrences in Baiyun Depression, South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yunbao; Zhang, Xiaohua; Wu, Shiguo; Wang, Lei; Yang, Shengxiong

    2018-02-01

    Submarine landslides have been observed in the Baiyun Depression of the South China Sea. The occurrence of hydrates below these landslides indicates that these slope instabilities may be closely related to the massive release of methane. In this study, we used a simple Monte-Carlo model to determine the first-order deformation pattern of a gravitationally destabilizing slope. The results show that a stress concentration occurs due to hydrate dissociation on the nearby glide surface and on top of a gas chimney structure. Upon the dissolution of the gas hydrate, slope failure occurs due to the excess pore pressure generated by the dissociation of the gas hydrates. When gas hydrates dissociate at shallow depths, the excess pore pressure generated can be greater than the total stress acting at those points, along with the forces that resist sliding. Initially, the failure occurs at the toe of the slope, then extends to the interior. Although our investigation focused only on the contribution of hydrate decomposition to submarine landslide, this process is also affected by both the slope material properties and topography.

  11. Decoupled choice-driven and stimulus-related activity in parietal neurons may be misrepresented by choice probabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaidel, Adam; DeAngelis, Gregory C; Angelaki, Dora E

    2017-09-28

    Trial-by-trial correlations between neural responses and choices (choice probabilities) are often interpreted to reflect a causal contribution of neurons to task performance. However, choice probabilities may arise from top-down, rather than bottom-up, signals. We isolated distinct sensory and decision contributions to single-unit activity recorded from the dorsal medial superior temporal (MSTd) and ventral intraparietal (VIP) areas of monkeys during perception of self-motion. Superficially, neurons in both areas show similar tuning curves during task performance. However, tuning in MSTd neurons primarily reflects sensory inputs, whereas choice-related signals dominate tuning in VIP neurons. Importantly, the choice-related activity of VIP neurons is not predictable from their stimulus tuning, and these factors are often confounded in choice probability measurements. This finding was confirmed in a subset of neurons for which stimulus tuning was measured during passive fixation. Our findings reveal decoupled stimulus and choice signals in the VIP area, and challenge our understanding of choice signals in the brain.Choice-related signals in neuronal activity may reflect bottom-up sensory processes, top-down decision-related influences, or a combination of the two. Here the authors report that choice-related activity in VIP neurons is not predictable from their stimulus tuning, and that dominant choice signals can bias the standard metric of choice preference (choice probability).

  12. Packaging- and transportation-related occurrence reports, January--March 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickerson, L.S.; Welch, M.J.; Armstrong, C.J.

    1995-04-01

    Reports on transportation/packaging incidents, from the Occurrence Reporting and Processing System, are being analyzed for trends, impact on DOE EH-32 policies and concerns, and lessons learned concerning transportation and packaging safety. Besides keeping EH-32 aware of current incidents and potential problems that may need attention on DOE sites, this task allows future dissemination of lessons learned to the Operations Offices and to management and operating contractors. This report covers the weekly tabular reports OR-95-01 through OR-95-13, which contained a total of 50 occurrence reports

  13. Alternativa para caracterização da condutividade hidráulica saturada do solo utilizando probabilidade de ocorrência Alternative of characterization to the soil hydraulic conductivity utilizing probability of occurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria da Glória Bastos de Freitas Mesquita

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available A Condutividade Hidráulica Saturada (Ksat devido à sua importância em informar sobre a capacidade de transporte de água, solutos e substâncias químicas no solo deve ser bem caracterizada, pois de um modo geral, seu valor é utilizado nos cálculos de fluxos no solo. Com o objetivo de propor uma alternativa para caracterizá-la, a partir de uma série de dados, utilizou-se a função densidade de probabilidade lognormal para obter os valores da propriedade correspondentes aos níveis de 5 a 95% de probabilidade de ocorrência, visando descrever e indicar melhores valores a serem adotados como Ksat para a área considerada. Como resultado obteve-se uma análise da variável em termos de probabilidade de ocorrência. Essa representação, na medida em que associa o nível de probabilidade ao valor adotado para a propriedade, permite ao pesquisador avaliar o risco na estimativa de medidas dependentes de Ksat, visto que esta propriedade no solo apresenta alta variabilidade.The Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity of the soil (Ksat due to its importance in inform about the capacity of transport of water, solutes and chemical substances in the soil should be well characterized, since in general, this value is used in calculations of flows in the soil. Aiming at proposing an alternative to characterize the Ksat, starting from a series of data, the function density of probability lognormal was used to obtain the values of the property which corresponde to the levels of occurrence probability from 5 to 95%, in order to describe and to indicate better values to be adopted as Ksat for the considered area. As a result, it was obtained an analysis of the values of the variable in terms of occurrence probability. This representation, associating each value to a probability level, allows to the researcher to evaluate the error on estimation of measurements that depend on Ksat, due to the fact that, this property in the soil presents high variability.

  14. Relations between the occurrence of resistance to antimicrobial growth promoters among Enterococcus faecium isolated from broilers and broiler meat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Emborg, Hanne-Dorthe; Andersen, J. S.; Seyfarth, Anne Mette

    2003-01-01

    and streptogramin. By February 1998, all antimicrobial growth promoters (AGPs) were withdrawn from the Danish broiler production. The present study investigates, by logistic regression analyses, the (1) changes in the occurrence of AGP resistance among E. faecium from broilers and broiler meat from the fourth...... quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 2001 and (2) relations between the occurrence of AGP resistance among E. faecium isolates from Danish broilers and AGP resistance among E. faecium isolates from the broiler meat of Danish and unknown origin collected in the same quarter within the year....... In the present study, we showed that after the AGP withdrawal, a significant decline in resistance to avilamycin, erythromycin, vancomycin and virginiamycin was observed among E. faecium from broilers and broiler meat. In addition, a decline in the occurrence of AGP resistance among E. faecium from Danish...

  15. Immune reconstitution syndrome presenting as probable AIDS-related lymphoma: a case report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Bo K; Nielsen, Susanne D; Christensen, Charlotte

    2011-01-01

    ABSTRACT: We report an unusual case of HIV-related immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome, presenting as suspected AIDS-related lymphoma. Symptoms, initial investigations including fine-needle biopsy and 18F-FDG PET/CT scan were highly compatible with high grade AIDS-related lymphoma, however...

  16. Immune reconstitution syndrome presenting as probable AIDS-related lymphoma: a case report

    OpenAIRE

    Christensen Charlotte B; Nielsen Susanne D; Mortensen Bo K; Helweg-Larsen Jannik

    2011-01-01

    Abstract We report an unusual case of HIV-related immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome, presenting as suspected AIDS-related lymphoma. Symptoms, initial investigations including fine-needle biopsy and 18F-FDG PET/CT scan were highly compatible with high grade AIDS-related lymphoma, however subsequently IRIS was diagnosed. We discuss pitfalls in the interpretation of diagnostic results in ARL versus IRIS.

  17. Occurrence and potential crop uptake of emerging contaminants and related compounds in an agricultural irrigation network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calderón-Preciado, Diana; Matamoros, Víctor; Bayona, Josep M

    2011-12-15

    Emerging contaminants have received much attention in recent years due to their presence in surface waters, but little attention has been paid to their occurrence in agricultural irrigation waters. This study investigated the occurrence of these compounds in an agricultural irrigation network in northeastern Spain and, for the first time, using two plant uptake models, estimated the concentration of selected micropollutants in crops. The concentration of micropollutants in agricultural irrigation waters ranged from 10 to 5130 ng L(-1) and exhibited some attenuation over the course of the irrigation network. Bromoform, chloroform, diclofenac, caffeine, ibuprofen, naproxen, methyl dihydrojasmonate, galaxolide, butylated hydroxytoluene, and butylated hydroxyanisole were the most abundant contaminants (>200 ng L(-1), on average). The estimated concentration of micropollutants in crops ranged from contaminants detected). Further studies are needed to determine the health implications that the presence of these compounds in fruit and vegetables may have for consumers. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Annotated bibliography of safety-related occurrences in nuclear power plans as reported in 1974

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, R.L.; Gallaher, R.B.

    1975-05-01

    All abnormal occurrences at nuclear power plants reported in 1974 are reviewed and summarized. This bibliography covers the individual reports on each of the 1421 abnormal occurrences reported to the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, as well as some 455 other documents pertaining to these and other events of note. The review is intended to provide insight as to where additional effort can be expended to improve operations in nuclear power plants. The individual reports, abstracted by the Nuclear Safety Information Center, concern incidents and failures, design or construction deficiencies, and noncompliance citations for license violations. A bibliography is included which contains 100-word abstracts of each incident. For convenience, the bibliography is organized according to type of facility as follows: boiling-water reactors; pressurized-water reactors; non-water-cooled power reactors; and reactors, general. Key-word and permuted-title indexes are provided for each section. (U.S.)

  19. Occurrence and distribution of Chytridiales related to some physical and chemical factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samy K. Hassan

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Physical and chemical properties of water and soil were positively corelated with the occurrence and distribution of chytrides. Thirty-six zoosporic members of chytrids belonging to fourteen genera were recorded in the present study. Nowakowskiella, Karlingia, Cladochytrium, Endochytrium and Rhizophlyctis were the most common genera observed along River Nileshore and other canals in nine Governorates in Egypt during the winter of 1989/1990.

  20. Factors related to the occurrence of precocious menarche in female primary school students in Makassar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renjani, Rizky Swastika; Mappaware, Nasrudin A.; Nontji, Werna; Marniati

    2017-09-01

    Precocious menarche currently affects 1 in 5000 girls and likely to occur as many as 10 times and possess greater risk to the emergence of cancer in women. The aim of this research is to determine the relationship of nutrition status and lipid profile with precocious menarche occurrence onstudents of primary school in Makassar city. The design of this research was cross sectional design. The samples werethe students of grades IV, V and VI who have already menarche occurrence as many as 20 studentscollected with purposive sampling. The data were analyzed with Mann Whitney U test. The results indicate that there are 17 students (85%) do not undergoprecocious menarche, normal nutrition status is 11 persons (55%), normal cholesterol levelis 12 persons (60%), and level of normal LDL = 19 persons (95%). While the respondents who undergo precocious menarche is 3 persons (15%), fat nutrition status is 9 persons (45%), cautious cholesterol level is 8 persons (40%) and cautious LDL level is 1 person (5%). Based on Mann Whitney U test, there is relationship between nutrition status and precocious menarche occurrence (p = 0.043) and there is correlation of total cholesterol and LDLcholesterollevelswith precocious menarche (p = 0.025) and (p = 0.017). The decrease of knowledge about health of reproduction can be promoted in school by making cooperation with nutritionist to give information to parents and students of primary schools about good and healthy food.

  1. Selected safety-related occurrences reported in May and June 1977

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casto, W.R.

    1977-01-01

    The following occurrences are reviewed because of their uniqueness and/or general interest: (1) short reactor periods have occurred at Quad Cities 1 during shutdown margin tests; (2) loss of instrument air caused damage to reactor coolant-pump seals at a pressurized-water reactor (PWR); (3) a power-distribution anomaly occurred because of a failure of burnable poison rods at St. Lucie 1; (4) short reactor periods have occurred at some boiling-water reactors (BWRs) during startups at peak xenon; and (5) surging in the feedwater flow caused pipe vibrations at Beaver Valley 1

  2. Erosividade das chuvas associada a períodos de retorno e probabilidade de ocorrência no estado do Rio de Janeiro Rainfall erosivity associated to return periods and occurrence probability in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roriz Luciano Machado

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available O conhecimento da erosividade das chuvas associada à probabilidade de ocorrência e ao período de retorno pode contribuir para o planejamento conservacionista de uma região, em médio e longo prazo. A fim de gerar informações para melhor utilizar modelos e controle da erosão, dados de chuvas de 30 séries pluviográficas e pluviométricas, abrangendo 25 municípios, entre 1933 e 2006, foram estudados quanto à adequação das séries e do cálculo da probabilidade de ocorrência teórica (P e período de retorno (T da erosividade das chuvas (EI30 e KE>25, para o Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Foi feita a espacialização do potencial erosivo associado aos períodos de retorno de 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 e 100 anos para todo o Estado. A erosividade anual média (EI30 ou fator R da USLE para qualquer localidade no Estado do Rio de Janeiro pode ser igualada ou superada pelo menos uma vez, em média, em um período de 1,8 a 2,1 anos, com faixa de 48,5 a 54,9 % de probabilidade de ocorrência teórica. As localidades que apresentam maior erosividade associada aos períodos de retorno estão situadas nas mesorregiões Metropolitanas e em partes das mesorregiões Sul e Centro Fluminense. Foi possível identificar de oito a 12 regiões homogêneas, quanto à distribuição espacial da erosividade associada aos períodos de retorno de dois para 100 anos no Estado. De modo geral, a maior variação da distribuição espacial da erosividade apresenta-se na faixa de período de retorno de dois a cinco anos.Knowledge on rainfall erosivity associated to occurrence probability and return periods can contribute to conservation planning in the medium and long term. With the objective of generating information for a better use of medium and long-term erosion models and erosion control, rainfall data of 30 pluviometric and pluviographic data sets from 25 cities ranging from 1933 to 2006 were studied in terms of adjustment of data sets, calculation of the probability of

  3. Occurrence of spinal column pain and its relation to the quality of life of manicures and pedicures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrezza Pinheiro Bezerra de Menezes Kinote

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To analyze the occurrence of spine column pain in manicures/pedicures and verify its relationship with quality of life. Methods: A quantitative and descriptive crosssectional research conducted from February to June 2010 with 30 professionals aged between 18 and 45 years and with at least one year of work experience. After selection, two questionnaires were applied: the SF-36 and another developed by the researchers with questions related to occupation (working hours and length of service, occurrence of pain and its characteristics (location, type, frequency and intensity. Results: Of the 30 participants, 76.7% (n=23 reported pain, with 63.3% (n=19 occurrence in the lumbar spine and 46.7% (n=14 occurrence of chronic type (lasting more than 6 months. A total of 36.7% (n=11 of interviewees reported daily pain with an average intensity of 6.1+2.24. Age and length of service rates were higher in the group of people who felt pain (34.2+6.80 and 12.3+6.39 years respectively. Regarding the quality of life in the group of people who did not feel pain, the domains “functional capacity”, “pain” and “general health status” had higher scores when compared to the group of people who felt pain (p<0.05. Conclusion: It was detected a high occurrence of spinal column pain among manicures / pedicures, especially in the lumbar spine, leading to functional limitations, and a consequent change in quality of life. doi:10.5020/18061230.2013.p318

  4. Occurrence and potential crop uptake of emerging contaminants and related compounds in an agricultural irrigation network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calderón-Preciado, Diana; Matamoros, Víctor; Bayona, Josep M.

    2011-01-01

    Emerging contaminants have received much attention in recent years due to their presence in surface waters, but little attention has been paid to their occurrence in agricultural irrigation waters. This study investigated the occurrence of these compounds in an agricultural irrigation network in northeastern Spain and, for the first time, using two plant uptake models, estimated the concentration of selected micropollutants in crops. The concentration of micropollutants in agricultural irrigation waters ranged from 10 to 5130 ng L −1 and exhibited some attenuation over the course of the irrigation network. Bromoform, chloroform, diclofenac, caffeine, ibuprofen, naproxen, methyl dihydrojasmonate, galaxolide, butylated hydroxytoluene, and butylated hydroxyanisole were the most abundant contaminants (> 200 ng L −1 , on average). The estimated concentration of micropollutants in crops ranged from −1 , with the neutral compounds being the most abundant. Moreover, the predicted data obtained by fate models generally agreed with experimental data. Finally, human exposure to micropollutants through fruit and vegetable consumption was estimated to be 9.8 μg per person and week (Σ 27 contaminants detected). Further studies are needed to determine the health implications that the presence of these compounds in fruit and vegetables may have for consumers.

  5. Occurrence and potential crop uptake of emerging contaminants and related compounds in an agricultural irrigation network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calderon-Preciado, Diana [IDAEA-CSIC, Jordi Girona, 18, E-08034 Barcelona (Spain); Matamoros, Victor, E-mail: victor.matamoros@udg.edu [Department of Chemistry, University of Girona, Campus Montilivi, 17071 Girona (Spain); Bayona, Josep M. [IDAEA-CSIC, Jordi Girona, 18, E-08034 Barcelona (Spain)

    2011-12-15

    Emerging contaminants have received much attention in recent years due to their presence in surface waters, but little attention has been paid to their occurrence in agricultural irrigation waters. This study investigated the occurrence of these compounds in an agricultural irrigation network in northeastern Spain and, for the first time, using two plant uptake models, estimated the concentration of selected micropollutants in crops. The concentration of micropollutants in agricultural irrigation waters ranged from 10 to 5130 ng L{sup -1} and exhibited some attenuation over the course of the irrigation network. Bromoform, chloroform, diclofenac, caffeine, ibuprofen, naproxen, methyl dihydrojasmonate, galaxolide, butylated hydroxytoluene, and butylated hydroxyanisole were the most abundant contaminants (> 200 ng L{sup -1}, on average). The estimated concentration of micropollutants in crops ranged from < 1 to 7677 ng kg{sup -1}, with the neutral compounds being the most abundant. Moreover, the predicted data obtained by fate models generally agreed with experimental data. Finally, human exposure to micropollutants through fruit and vegetable consumption was estimated to be 9.8 {mu}g per person and week ({Sigma} 27 contaminants detected). Further studies are needed to determine the health implications that the presence of these compounds in fruit and vegetables may have for consumers.

  6. An investigation of student understanding of classical ideas related to quantum mechanics: Potential energy diagrams and spatial probability density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephanik, Brian Michael

    This dissertation describes the results of two related investigations into introductory student understanding of ideas from classical physics that are key elements of quantum mechanics. One investigation probes the extent to which students are able to interpret and apply potential energy diagrams (i.e., graphs of potential energy versus position). The other probes the extent to which students are able to reason classically about probability and spatial probability density. The results of these investigations revealed significant conceptual and reasoning difficulties that students encounter with these topics. The findings guided the design of instructional materials to address the major problems. Results from post-instructional assessments are presented that illustrate the impact of the curricula on student learning.

  7. Identification and Assessment of Recent Aging-Related Degradation Occurrences in U.S. Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, In Kil; Kim, Min Kyu; Choun, Young Sun; Hofmayer, Charles; Braverman, Joseph; Nie, Jinsou

    2008-11-01

    This report describes the research effort performed by BNL for the Year 1 scope of work. This research focused on collecting and reviewing degradation occurrences in US NPPs and identifying important aging characteristics needed for the seismic capability evaluations that will be performed in the subsequent evaluations in the years that follow. The report presents results of the statistical and trending analysis of this data and compares the results to prior aging studies. In addition, this report provides a description of current regulatory requirements, regulatory guidance documents, generic communications, industry standards and guidance, and past research related to aging degradation of SSCs. Finally, this report provides the conclusions reached from this research effort, which includes a summary of the findings from the identification and evaluation effort of degradation occurrences, an assessment of the degradation trending results, and insights into the important aging characteristics that should be considered in the tasks to be performed in the Year 2 through 5 research effort

  8. Association Between the Probability of Autism Spectrum Disorder and Normative Sex-Related Phenotypic Diversity in Brain Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Derek S.; Gudbrandsen, Christina M.; Marquand, Andre F.; Ginestet, Cedric E.; Daly, Eileen M.; Murphy, Clodagh M.; Lai, Meng-Chuan; Lombardo, Michael V.; Ruigrok, Amber N. V.; Bullmore, Edward T.; Suckling, John; Williams, Steven C. R.; Baron-Cohen, Simon; Craig, Michael C.; Murphy, Declan G. M.

    2017-01-01

    Importance Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is 2 to 5 times more common in male individuals than in female individuals. While the male preponderant prevalence of ASD might partially be explained by sex differences in clinical symptoms, etiological models suggest that the biological male phenotype carries a higher intrinsic risk for ASD than the female phenotype. To our knowledge, this hypothesis has never been tested directly, and the neurobiological mechanisms that modulate ASD risk in male individuals and female individuals remain elusive. Objectives To examine the probability of ASD as a function of normative sex-related phenotypic diversity in brain structure and to identify the patterns of sex-related neuroanatomical variability associated with low or high probability of ASD. Design, Setting, and Participants This study examined a cross-sectional sample of 98 right-handed, high-functioning adults with ASD and 98 matched neurotypical control individuals aged 18 to 42 years. A multivariate probabilistic classification approach was used to develop a predictive model of biological sex based on cortical thickness measures assessed via magnetic resonance imaging in neurotypical controls. This normative model was subsequently applied to individuals with ASD. The study dates were June 2005 to October 2009, and this analysis was conducted between June 2015 and July 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures Sample and population ASD probability estimates as a function of normative sex-related diversity in brain structure, as well as neuroanatomical patterns associated with low or high ASD probability in male individuals and female individuals. Results Among the 98 individuals with ASD, 49 were male and 49 female, with a mean (SD) age of 26.88 (7.18) years. Among the 98 controls, 51 were male and 47 female, with a mean (SD) age of 27.39 (6.44) years. The sample probability of ASD increased significantly with predictive probabilities for the male neuroanatomical brain phenotype. For

  9. Using the Internet for Health-Related Activities: Findings From a National Probability Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saperstein, Sandra L; Pleis, John

    2009-01-01

    Background eHealth tools on the Internet have the potential to help people manage their health and health care. However, little is known about the distribution and use of different kinds of eHealth tools across the population or within population subgroups. Objective The purpose of this study was to examine the prevalence and predictors of participation in specific online health-related activities. Methods A secondary data analysis of the National Cancer Institute’s Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS) 2005 was conducted to study three online behaviors among Internet users (n = 3244): searching for health information for oneself, participating in a support group for those with similar health or medical conditions, and purchasing medicine or vitamins. Results A total of 58% of Internet users reported searching for health information for themselves, 3.8% used online support groups, and 12.8% bought medicine or vitamins online in the past year. Multivariate analysis found that those seeking health information were more likely to be women (OR = 2.23, 95% CI = 1.60, 3.09), have cable or satellite Internet connections (OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.22, 2.45) or DSL connections (OR = 1.94, 95% CI = 1.36, 2.76), have Internet access from work (OR = 2.43, 95% CI = 1.27, 4.67) or from home and work (OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.31, 2.30), and report more hours of weekday Internet use (OR = 4.12, 95% CI = 2.41, 7.07). Those with a high school education or less (OR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.31, 0.63) and those with some college (OR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.49, 0.89) were less likely to search for health information. Online support groups were more likely to be used by those with “fair” health (OR = 3.28, 95% CI = 1.21, 8.92) and “poor” health (OR = 5.98, 95% CI = 1.49, 24.07) and those with lower incomes (OR = 2.64, 95% CI = 1.09, 6.41) and less likely to be used by those with Internet access both at home and work (OR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.35, 0.90). Those who were age 35-49 (OR = 2

  10. Foundations of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraassen, B.C. van

    1979-01-01

    The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)

  11. Relative probabilities of the uranium isotopes for thorium x-ray emission and fluorescence of uranium x-rays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parker, J.L.

    1991-01-01

    Both thorium x-rays from decaying uranium isotopes and self-fluoresced uranium x-rays are prominent in high-resolution gamma-ray spectra of uranium-bearing materials. Useful application of the information carried by those x-rays has been curtailed because the probabilities of the uranium isotopes for thorium x-ray emission and for uranium x-ray fluorescence have not been known. By analyzing enrichment-meter geometry spectra from uranium oxide standards whose enrichments ranged from 0.7% to 91%, relative values, primarily, have been obtained for the probabilities of both processes. Thorium x-ray emission is very heavily dominated by 235 U. In all ordinarily occurring uranium isotopic distributions, thorium x-rays may be used as a valid 235 U signature. The probability for a thorium K α1 x-ray to be emitted in the decay of a 235 U atom is 0.048 ±0.002. In infinitely thick uranium oxide materials, the relative ratios of effectiveness for self-fluorescence, on a per unit mass basis, are approximately 234 U : 235 U : 236 U : 238 U = 1.13 : 1.00 : 0.52 : 0.028. on a per decay basis, the approximate ratios are 0.00039 : 1.00 : 0.017 : 0.18. These results imply that, contrary to what has often been stated, gamma rays are far more important than alpha particles in the self-fluorescence of uranium. Because of the importance of gamma-ray self-fluorescence, the uranium x-ray yield will be somewhat influenced by the size, shape, and composition of the materials. 4 refs., 1 fig

  12. Risk assessment related to biogenic amines occurrence in ready-to-eat baby foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czajkowska-Mysłek, Anna; Leszczyńska, Joanna

    2017-07-01

    Potential adverse reactions among infants and young children could appear after consumption of food containing small amounts of bioactive amines. This study presents the first assessment of biogenic amines occurrence in ready-to-eat vegetable without/with fish, meat and fruit baby products intended for the youngest consumers. The biogenic amine profiles and quantities of 6 amines were evaluated in 68 commercial baby foods produced by 10 leading manufacturers available in Poland, using HPLC-APCI-MS method. The total amine contents in analyzed products were obtained in the range of 1283-101421 ng/g. The maximum level of histamine (2375 ng/g) was found in the sample with spinach, tyramine (1667 ng/g) in fruit sample with banana, and of di- and polyamines (1263-53416 ng/g) in samples containing green peas. The results of amine analysis in baby foods indicated the presence of food ingredients which may be necessary to remove (tuna, possibly spinach) or reduce the amount added (spinach, green peas), either reduce their use by infants under 12 months of age (beef). Special attention should also be given to control the consumption of fruit baby products containing banana (higher tyramine and putrescine level). On the basis of obtained results a potential %ARfD, and the BAI were also evaluated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. The Occurrence of Cold Spells in the Alps Related to ClimateChange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seon Ki Park

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is not only a likely prospect for the end of this century, but it is already occurring. Part of the changes will include global warming and increasing temperature variability, both at global and regional scales. This increased variability was investigated in this paper from the point of view of the occurrence of cold spells in the Alps in the future climate (2071–2100, compared with the present climate (1961–1990. For this purpose, a regionalisation of the climate change effects was performed within the Alps. To avoid possible errors in the estimate of the 2m air temperature, the analysis was performed on the soil surface temperature. To get realistic values for this variable, a land surface scheme, UTOPIA, has been run on the selected domain, using the output of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3 simulations as the driving force. The results show that, in general, the number of cold breaks is decreasing over the Alps, due to the temperature increment. However, there are certain zones where the behaviour is more complicated. The analysis of the model output also allowed a relationship to be found between the number of cold breaks and their duration. The significance of these results over the whole area was assessed.

  14. Co-occurrence of addictive behaviours: personality factors related to substance use, gambling and computer gaming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walther, Birte; Morgenstern, Matthis; Hanewinkel, Reiner

    2012-01-01

    To investigate co-occurrence and shared personality characteristics of problematic computer gaming, problematic gambling and substance use. Cross-sectional survey data were collected from 2,553 German students aged 12-25 years. Self-report measures of substance use (alcohol, tobacco and cannabis), problematic gambling (South Oaks Gambling Screen - Revised for Adolescents, SOGS-RA), problematic computer gaming (Video Game Dependency Scale, KFN-CSAS-II), and of twelve different personality characteristics were obtained. Analyses revealed positive correlations between tobacco, alcohol and cannabis use and a smaller positive correlation between problematic gambling and problematic computer gaming. Problematic computer gaming co-occurred only with cannabis use, whereas problematic gambling was associated with all three types of substance use. Multivariate multilevel analyses showed differential patterns of personality characteristics. High impulsivity was the only personality characteristic associated with all five addictive behaviours. Depression and extraversion were specific to substance users. Four personality characteristics were specifically associated with problematic computer gaming: irritability/aggression, social anxiety, ADHD, and low self-esteem. Problematic gamblers seem to be more similar to substance users than problematic computer gamers. From a personality perspective, results correspond to the inclusion of gambling in the same DSM-V category as substance use and question a one-to-one proceeding for computer gaming. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  15. Co-occurrence of substance use related and mental health problems in the Finnish social and health care system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuussaari, Kristiina; Hirschovits-Gerz, Tanja

    2016-03-01

    Many studies have noted that substance abuse and mental health problems often occur simultaneously. The aim of the work reported here was to study the co-occurrence of mental health problems and problems related to substance use in a sample of clients visiting the Finnish social and health care services for issues related to substance use. We collected background information on the clients and considered the parts of the treatment system in which these clients were treated. Survey data on intoxicant-related cases in the Finnish health care and social services were gathered on a single day in 2011. During the 24 hours of data collection, all intoxicant-related cases were reported and data were obtained for 11,738 intoxicant-related cases. In this analysis we took into account the clients' background variables, mental health variables, information on the treatment type and the main reasons for the client being in treatment. The χ(2) test, Fisher's exact test and binary logistic regression analysis were used. Half of the visiting clients had both substance use related and mental health problems. The strongest factors associated with the co-occurrence of substance use related and mental health problems were female sex, younger age and single marital status. Clients with co-occurring problems were more often treated in the health care services, whereas clients with only substance use related problems were primarily treated in specialized services for the treatment of substance abuse. It is important to identify clients with co-occurring substance use related and mental health problems. In this study, half of the clients presenting to the Finnish social and health care treatment system had both these problems. © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

  16. The occurrence of in-mouth coalescence of emulsion droplets in relation to perception of fat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dresselhuis, D.M.; Hoog, de E.H.A.; Cohen Stuart, M.A.; Vingerhoeds, M.H.; Aken, van G.A.

    2008-01-01

    We studied the relation between sensitivity of emulsions for in-mouth coalescence and perception of fat-related attributes, such as creaminess as well as the relation with in vivo perceived and ex vivo measured friction. Emulsions with varying expected sensitivity towards in-mouth coalescence were

  17. Myeloperoxidase-positive cell infiltration of normal colorectal mucosa is related to body fatness and is predictive of adenoma occurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariani, F; Boarino, V; Bertani, A; Merighi, A; Pedroni, M; Rossi, G; Mancini, S; Sena, P; Benatti, P; Roncucci, L

    2017-06-01

    Body fatness is a risk factor for colorectal cancer, and promotes an inflammatory environment. Indeed, inflammation in normal colorectal mucosa may be a factor linking body fatness to colorectal carcinogenesis. In this study, we evaluated myeloperoxidase (MPO)-positive cells infiltration of normal colorectal mucosa as a marker of cancer-promoting inflammation in overweight and obese subjects. One hundred and three subjects with normal colonoscopy entered the study. Waist circumference (WC) and body mass index (BMI) were measured, and MPO-positive cells on histological sections of biopsies of normal colorectal mucosa were counted under a light microscope. The occurrence of adenomas was then evaluated on follow-up colonoscopies. Mean MPO-positive cell count (±s.e.m.) was higher in subject with a WC equal or above the obesity cutoff values according to gender (2.63±0.20 vs 2.06±0.18, P=0.03), and in subjects with BMI equal or above 25 kg m - 2 (2.54±0.18 vs 1.97±0.20, P=0.03). A Cox proportional hazard model showed that mean MPO-positive cell count in normal colorectal mucosa was the only factor independently related to occurrence of adenomas in follow-up colonoscopies. Though preliminary, these results show that MPO-positive cell infiltration in normal colorectal mucosa is related with body fatness, as evaluated by WC and BMI, and it may be considered a useful and simple marker to estimate adenoma occurrence risk.

  18. Is the occurrence of spontaneous epistaxis related to climatic variables? A retrospective clinical, epidemiological and meteorological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangussi-Gomes, João; Enout, Mariana Junqueira Reis; Castro, Thaiana Carneiro de; de Andrade, José Santos Cruz; Penido, Norma de Oliveira; Kosugi, Eduardo Macoto

    2016-11-01

    Epistaxis has a bimodal age distribution. Anterior epistaxis of mild severity is more common in children; severe epistaxis occurs more often in adults and elderly patients. The occurrence of spontaneous epistaxis was shown to be weakly-to-moderately and inversely correlated to the mean monthly temperature, relative humidity and total rainfall. To describe the clinical and epidemiological profiles of patients diagnosed with spontaneous epistaxis; to correlate its monthly occurrence with meteorological variables. A retrospective cross-sectional study was performed in a referral ENT service in São Paulo, Brazil. The study assessed the clinical and epidemiological features of 508 patients with spontaneous epistaxis treated between February 2010 and January 2011. The occurrence of epistaxis was associated with weather variables for the same study period. Spontaneous epistaxis presented two age peaks of higher incidence (11-20 and 51-70 years). Children more frequently had localized bleeding (p = 0.003), in the anterior region of the nasal cavity (p = 0.0001), of absent-mild severity (p = 0.0082). Diffuse bleeding (p = 0.005), of moderate-severe intensity (p = 0.003), was more common in adults and elderly patients. The total number of visits because of epistaxis was inversely correlated to mean temperature (R = -0.489; p = 0.011), mean relative humidity (R = -0.364; p = 0.038), and total rainfall (R = -0.512; p = 0.009) during each month of the analyzed period.

  19. Acute Dysphasia and Reversible Cognitive Decline in a Patient with Probable Cerebral Amyloid Angiopathy-Related Inflammation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise Rigney

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Cerebral amyloid angiopathy related inflammation (CAAri is becoming increasingly recognised as a subset of cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA. CAAri generally presents with subacute cognitive decline, headaches, seizures, behavioral changes, and focal neurological deficits. We describe a patient who developed acute dysphasia and reversible cognitive decline due to probable CAAri. CT brain showed bilateral vasogenic edema in the cerebral hemispheres, predominantly involving the parietal and temporal lobes, left greater than right without enhancement. Magnetic resonance brain imaging showed extensive multifocal areas of subcortical white matter T2 hyperintensity in the frontal and temporal regions with associated mass effect, negligible enhancement, and multiple foci of microhemorrhage on susceptibility weighted imaging sequences consistent with a diagnosis of probable CAAri. She responded dramatically to a course of intravenous methylprednisolone followed by further immunosuppression with pulse intravenous cyclophosphamide. Her dysphasia resolved within 5 days of intravenous methylprednisolone therapy. Her MMSE improved from 11/30 at day 5 of admission to 28/30 at 6-month follow-up. The notable features of our case were the unusual CT findings, which were inconsistent with stroke and diagnostic utility of susceptibility-weighted magnetic resonance imaging in confirming the diagnosis which allowed for prompt institution of immunosuppression.

  20. Simple relations for the excitation energies E2 and the transition probabilities B (E2) of neighboring doubly even nuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patnaik, R.; Patra, R.; Satpathy, L.

    1975-01-01

    For even-even nuclei, the excitation energy E2 and the reduced transition probability B (E2) between the ground state and the first excited 2 + state have been considered. On the basis of different models, it is shown that for a nucleus N, Z the relations E2N, Z + E2N + 2,Z + 2 - E2N + 2, Z - E2N, Z + 2 approx. = 0 and B (E2)N, Z + B (E2)N + 2,Z + 2 - B (E2)N + 2,Z - B (E2)N, Z + 2 approx. = 0 hold good, except in certain specified regions. The goodness of these difference equations is tested with the available experimental data. The difference equation of Ross and Bhaduri is shown to follow from our approach. Some predictions of unmeasured E2 and B (E2) values have been made

  1. Ascites in chickens : oxygen consumption and requirement related to its occurrence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scheele, C.W.

    1996-01-01


    The present thesis describes the etiology of heart failure syndrome (HFS) and ascites in broiler chickens.

    In The Netherlands, ascites, as a cause of mortality in broiler chickens, is increasing steadily. Rates of mortality in broiler flocks in practice, related to HFS and

  2. Fore shock activity and its probabilistic relation to earthquake occurrence in Albania and the surrounding area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peci, V. [Seismological Institute, Tirana (Albania); Maeda, K. [Meteorologial Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan). Dept. of Seismology and Volcanology Research; Matsmura, K.; Irikura, K. [Kyoto Univ., Kyoto (Japan). Inst. of Disaster Prevention Research

    1999-10-01

    The paper investigates some characteristics of fore shock activity of moderate and large earthquakes which occurred in the present century in Albania and the surrounding area. Using a prediction algorithm, based on possible fore shocks, the authors obtained a probabilistic relation between possible fore shocks and main shocks. Results recorded between 1901-1994 are analysed and discussed.

  3. Quantifying Uranium Isotope Ratios Using Resonance Ionization Mass Spectrometry: The Influence of Laser Parameters on Relative Ionization Probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isselhardt, Brett H. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2011-09-01

    Resonance Ionization Mass Spectrometry (RIMS) has been developed as a method to measure relative uranium isotope abundances. In this approach, RIMS is used as an element-selective ionization process to provide a distinction between uranium atoms and potential isobars without the aid of chemical purification and separation. We explore the laser parameters critical to the ionization process and their effects on the measured isotope ratio. Specifically, the use of broad bandwidth lasers with automated feedback control of wavelength was applied to the measurement of 235U/238U ratios to decrease laser-induced isotopic fractionation. By broadening the bandwidth of the first laser in a 3-color, 3-photon ionization process from a bandwidth of 1.8 GHz to about 10 GHz, the variation in sequential relative isotope abundance measurements decreased from >10% to less than 0.5%. This procedure was demonstrated for the direct interrogation of uranium oxide targets with essentially no sample preparation. A rate equation model for predicting the relative ionization probability has been developed to study the effect of variation in laser parameters on the measured isotope ratio. This work demonstrates that RIMS can be used for the robust measurement of uranium isotope ratios.

  4. Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

    2004-01-01

    Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

  5. Non-Archimedean Probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

    We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

  6. Landslides Zonation Hazard: relation between geological structures and landslides occurrence in hilly tropical regions of Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerri, Rodrigo I; Reis, Fábio A G V; Gramani, Marcelo F; Giordano, Lucilia C; Zaine, José Eduardo

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach of landslides zonation hazard studies, based on an integrated study of structural data along with geomorphological and external factors, in a hilly regions of Brazil, covered by a tropical humid rain-forest, called Serra do Mar. The Serra do Mar consists of a hilly region along the east coast of Brazil, with high slopes and many geological structures in a gneiss - migmatitic terrain. In contrast to traditional approaches, this method proposes that structural data (foliation, fractures and bedding planes) and its relation with the slope geometry, is important to be consider in the landslide zonation hazard, along with declivity, relative relief, soil and rock properties, land use and vegetation cover and hydrogeological and climate factors. Results show that slopes with high hazard have the same dip direction of geological structures. Landslide zonation hazard using structural data contributes to a better understanding of how these structures, preserved in tropical residual soils, influence on slope stability and generates landslides.

  7. Landslides Zonation Hazard: relation between geological structures and landslides occurrence in hilly tropical regions of Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RODRIGO I. CERRI

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This paper presents a new approach of landslides zonation hazard studies, based on an integrated study of structural data along with geomorphological and external factors, in a hilly regions of Brazil, covered by a tropical humid rain-forest, called Serra do Mar. The Serra do Mar consists of a hilly region along the east coast of Brazil, with high slopes and many geological structures in a gneiss - migmatitic terrain. In contrast to traditional approaches, this method proposes that structural data (foliation, fractures and bedding planes and its relation with the slope geometry, is important to be consider in the landslide zonation hazard, along with declivity, relative relief, soil and rock properties, land use and vegetation cover and hydrogeological and climate factors. Results show that slopes with high hazard have the same dip direction of geological structures. Landslide zonation hazard using structural data contributes to a better understanding of how these structures, preserved in tropical residual soils, influence on slope stability and generates landslides.

  8. Rasal2 deficiency reduces adipogenesis and occurrence of obesity-related disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoqiang Zhu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Identification of additional regulatory factors involved in the onset of obesity is important to understand the mechanisms underlying this prevailing disease and its associated metabolic disorders and to develop therapeutic strategies. Through isolation and analysis of a mutant, we aimed to uncover the function of a Ras-GAP gene, Rasal2 (Ras protein activator like 2, in the development of obesity and related metabolic disorders and to obtain valuable insights regarding the mechanism underlying the function. Methods: An obesity-based genetic screen was performed to identify an insertional mutation that disrupts the expression of Rasal2 (Rasal2PB/PB mice. Important metabolic parameters, such as fat mass and glucose tolerance, were measured in Rasal2PB/PB mice. The impact of Rasal2 on adipogenesis was evaluated in the mutant mice and in 3T3-L1 preadipocytes treated with Rasal2 siRNA. Ras and ERK activities were then evaluated in Rasal2-deficient preadipocytes or mice, and their functional relationships with Rasal2 on adipogenesis were investigated by employing Ras and MEK inhibitors. Results: Rasal2PB/PB mice showed drastic decrease in Rasal2 expression and a lean phenotype. The mutant mice displayed decreased adiposity and resistance to high-fat diet induced metabolic disorders. Further analysis indicated that Rasal2 deficiency leads to impaired adipogenesis in vivo and in vitro. Moreover, while Rasal2 deficiency resulted in increased activity of both Ras and ERK in preadipocytes, reducing Ras, but not ERK, suppressed the impaired adipogenesis. Conclusions: Rasal2 promotes adipogenesis, which may critically contribute to its role in the development of obesity and related metabolic disorders and may do so by repressing Ras activity in an ERK-independent manner. Keywords: Ras, ERK, Ras-GAP, Glucose tolerance, High-fat diet, Diabetes

  9. Philosophical theories of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2000-01-01

    The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

  10. Interrelationships Between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, Binomial, Logit, and Bayes' Rule Probability of Detection Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Generazio, Edward R.

    2014-01-01

    Unknown risks are introduced into failure critical systems when probability of detection (POD) capabilities are accepted without a complete understanding of the statistical method applied and the interpretation of the statistical results. The presence of this risk in the nondestructive evaluation (NDE) community is revealed in common statements about POD. These statements are often interpreted in a variety of ways and therefore, the very existence of the statements identifies the need for a more comprehensive understanding of POD methodologies. Statistical methodologies have data requirements to be met, procedures to be followed, and requirements for validation or demonstration of adequacy of the POD estimates. Risks are further enhanced due to the wide range of statistical methodologies used for determining the POD capability. Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' rule POD methodologies are widely used in determining POD capability. This work focuses on Hit-Miss data to reveal the framework of the interrelationships between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' Rule methodologies as they are applied to POD. Knowledge of these interrelationships leads to an intuitive and global understanding of the statistical data, procedural and validation requirements for establishing credible POD estimates.

  11. Ruin probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

    The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

  12. Early childhood environment related to microbial exposure and the occurrence of atopic disease at school age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Meer, G; Janssen, N A H; Brunekreef, B

    2005-05-01

    There is a growing body of evidence that the early childhood environment with respect to day care attendance, older siblings, pet ownership, and early life airway infections may protect from developing atopic disease. Few studies have distinguished between atopic sensitization and symptoms, and none have evaluated independent contributions for all of these different environmental conditions. Examine independent effects on atopic sensitization and symptoms of day care attendance, older siblings, pet ownership, and early infancy's airway disease. A cross-sectional survey among 8-13-year-old school children with complete data for 1555 children. After adjustment for confounders, atopic sensitization occurred less frequently in children that had attended a day care centre (OR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.55-0.98) or had a cat or dog before 2 years of age (OR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.61-0.99). Having older siblings yielded a nonsignificant trend towards protection (OR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.70-1.11). For symptoms, there was no relation with having older sibs, day care attendance and pet ownership, although there was a trend towards protection for the combination of atopy and symptoms. In contrast, children with doctors' treated airway disease before age 2, more frequently reported recent symptoms of wheeze, asthma, rhinitis, or dermatitis (all P atopic sensitization. Protection against symptoms only occurred if atopic sensitization was present as well.

  13. Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

    2004-01-01

    We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

  14. Extra-terrestrial igneous granites and related rocks: A review of their occurrence and petrogenesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonin, Bernard

    2012-11-01

    The telluric planets and the asteroid belt display the same internal structure with a metallic inner core and a silicate outer shell. Experimental data and petrological evidence in silicate systems show that granite can be produced by extreme igneous differentiation through various types of igneous processes. On Moon, 4.4-3.9 Ga granite clasts display dry mineral assemblages. They correspond to at least 8 discrete intrusive events. Large K/Ca enrichment and low REE abundances in granite relative to KREEP are consistent with silicate liquid immiscibility, a process observed in melt inclusions within olivine of lunar basalts and in lunar meteorites. Steep-sided domes identified by remote sensing can represent intrusive or extrusive felsic formations. On Mars, black-and-white rhythmic layers observed on the Tharsis rise along the flanks of the peripheral scarps of the Tharsis Montes giant volcanoes suggest the possible eruption of felsic pyroclastites. Though no true granites were found so far in the Martian SNC meteorites, felsic glasses and mesostases were identified and a component close to terrestrial continental (granitic) crust is inferred from trace element and isotope systematics. Venus has suffered extensive volcanic resurfacing, whereas folded and faulted areas resemble terrestrial continents. Near large shield volcanoes, with dominant basaltic compositions, steep-sided domes have been interpreted as non-degassed silicic extrusions. The hypothesis of a granitic component is "tantalising". Extra-terrestrial granite is frequently found as clasts and mesostases in asteroidal meteorites. Porphyritic textures, with alkali feldspar crystals up to several centimetres in size, were observed in silicate enclaves within iron meteorites. In the chondrite clan, polymict breccias can contain granitic clasts, whose provenance is debated. One clast from the Adzhi-Bogdo meteorite yields a 4.53 ± 0.03 Ga Pb-Pb age, making it the oldest known granite in the solar system. The

  15. Waste Package Misload Probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knudsen, J.K.

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a

  16. Probability-1

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, Albert N

    2016-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

  17. Arsenic in groundwater of Licking County, Ohio, 2012—Occurrence and relation to hydrogeology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Mary Ann

    2016-02-23

    (2) deeper open intervals, relative to the water level.The spatial distribution of arsenic concentrations was compared to hydrogeologic characteristics of Licking County. Elevated concentrations of arsenic (and iron) were associated with areas of flat topography and thick (greater than 100 feet),clay-rich glacial deposits. These characteristics are conducive to development of strongly reducing redox conditions, which can cause arsenic associated with iron oxyhydroxides in the aquifer matrix to be released to the groundwater.Hydrogeologic characteristics conducive to the development of strongly reducing groundwater are relatively wide-spread in the western part of Licking County, which is part of the Central Lowland physiographic province. In this area, a thick layer of clay-rich glacial deposits obscures the bedrock surface and creates flat to gently rolling landscape with poorly developed drainage networks. In the eastern part of the county, which is part of the Appalachian Plateaus physiographic province, the landscape includes steep-sided valleys and bedrock uplands. In this area, elevated arsenic concentrations were detected in buried valleys but not in the bedrock uplands, where glacial deposits are thin or absent. The observation that elevated concentrations of arsenic (and iron) were more prevalent in the western part of Licking County is true for both glacial and bedrock aquifers.In Licking County, thick, clay-rich glacial deposits (and elevated concentrations of arsenic) are associated with two hydrogeologic settings—buried valley and complex thick drift. Most wells in the buried-valley setting had low arsenic concentrations, but a few samples had very high concentrations (30–44 µg/L) and very reducing redox conditions (methanogenic and near-methanogenic). For wells in the complex-thick-drift setting, elevated arsenic concentrations are more prevalent, but the maximum concentration was lower (about 21 µg/L). Similar observations were made about arsenic

  18. Occurrence and removal of volatile organic compounds (VOC) relative to water treatment plants in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soh Shiau Chian

    2005-01-01

    A solid phase micro extraction technique with determination analysis by gas chromatography and mass spectrometry detector (SPME-GC-MSD) to determine 54 volatile organic compounds (VOC) in drinking water was successfully developed. The optimal conditions lead to mean recoveries of 85 % with the relative standard deviation below 13 %. Limit of detection was ranged from 0.005 μg/ l to 1.121 μg/ l for all VOC. Upon consideration of the complete procedure from sample preparation to instrumental determination, the expanded uncertainty for all VOC under study was in the range of 1.056 to 2.952 μg/ l. The optimised SPME-GC-MSD method was used to determine distributions and occurence of VOC in drinking water for Peninsular Malaysia for one year and a specific study carried out in Semenyih Catchment and Semenyih River Water Treatment Plant. Results from the monitoring programme showed that concentration of VOC ranged from undetectable to 190.9 μg/ l. Chloroform has the highest concentration and was detected in all drinking water samples. Apart from trihalomethanes (THM), other abundant compounds detected were 1,2-dibromoethane, cis and trans-1,3-dichloropropene, 1,2,3-trichloropropane and benzene. This indicated the presence of VOC in drinking water and thus is required to be frequently monitored in order to ensure and maintain drinking water quality. Based on exposure risks assessment, results from this study showed that total cancer risks was the greatest for benzene, followed by 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane, 1,2-dibromomethane, chloroform and dichlorobromomethane. Nevertheless, after considering the frequency of detection factor and alteration of cancer risks that has been done, chloroform contributed the highest cancer risks among other VOC compounds. On a specific study in Semenyih Catchment, the declination of water quality in Semenyih River between 1990 and 2004 to a perturbing stage was due to urbanisation process and industrial growth. Apart from raw water

  19. Spatio-temporal relation between landslide occurrence and abandoned or not maintained agricultural terraces in the Moldavian Plateau, NE Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciprian Margarint, Mihai; Santangelo, Michele; Niculita, Mihai; Bucci, Francesco

    2016-04-01

    Terraced landscapes are one of the most obvious human-shaped landscapes, mainly used to reduce the negative impact of soil erosion due to uncontrolled runoff and shallow landslides occurrence. Nevertheless, as the recent literature emphasizes, these old best practices can transform into a potential hazard for soil degradation, if not appropriately maintained. In Moldavian Plateau (NE Romania), agricultural terraces were built after the 1960s for landslide, soil erosion and runoff control, mainly in connection with construction of reservoirs, for increasing their operation time. Usually, the slope reduction was obtained by construction of cut-off ditches, hillside ditches, intermittent terraces, bench terraces, broad-based terraces, vineyardand orchard terraces. Due to the dry climatic setting, to the lack of hard rocks for construction, and to the generally light earth moving machinery available for construction, terraces are generally characterized by a small escarpment (0.5m to 1m), and a relatively short lateral extension (5 to 40 m). When the terraces were maintained, the backslope was typically covered with grass. When, after the 1990s, the lands were returned to the initial owners, the vegetation cover of the terraces was no more maintained, and the terraces themselves were progressively abandoned, due to lack of funds. Accurate landslide mapping on high resolution LiDAR DEM derived images, allowed to produce geomorphological inventories in 5 test cases, representative of the whole study area. In each inventory, landslides were classified based on type and relative age based on published classification schemes. We investigate the spatial and temporal relation between landslides occurrence and terraces, based on the spatial interactions of landslides of different ages and terraces. Results reveal that terraces were built, both on landslide-free and landslide-bearing slopes, and that frequently landslides and gullies develop on terraced slopes. Reactivations of

  20. Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.

  1. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

  2. Environmental occurrences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Black, D.G.

    1995-01-01

    This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the onsite and offsite releases of radioactive and regulated materials. The specific agencies notified of the releases depended on the type, amount, and location of the individual occurrences. The more significant of these off-normal environmental occurrences are summarized in this section

  3. Environmental occurrences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Black, D.G.

    1995-06-01

    This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the onsite and offsite releases of radioactive and regulated materials. The specific agencies notified of the releases depended on the type, amount, and location of the individual occurrences. The more significant of these off-normal environmental occurrences are summarized in this section.

  4. Predicted occurrence rate of severe transportation accidents involving large casks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennis, A.W.

    1978-01-01

    A summary of the results of an investigation of the severities of highway and railroad accidents as they relate to the shipment of large radioactive materials casks is discussed. The accident environments considered are fire, impact, crash, immersion, and puncture. For each of these environments, the accident severities and their predicted frequencies of occurrence are presented. These accident environments are presented in tabular and graphic form to allow the reader to evaluate the probabilities of occurrence of the accident parameter severities he selects

  5. Probability tales

    CERN Document Server

    Grinstead, Charles M; Snell, J Laurie

    2011-01-01

    This book explores four real-world topics through the lens of probability theory. It can be used to supplement a standard text in probability or statistics. Most elementary textbooks present the basic theory and then illustrate the ideas with some neatly packaged examples. Here the authors assume that the reader has seen, or is learning, the basic theory from another book and concentrate in some depth on the following topics: streaks, the stock market, lotteries, and fingerprints. This extended format allows the authors to present multiple approaches to problems and to pursue promising side discussions in ways that would not be possible in a book constrained to cover a fixed set of topics. To keep the main narrative accessible, the authors have placed the more technical mathematical details in appendices. The appendices can be understood by someone who has taken one or two semesters of calculus.

  6. Probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Dorogovtsev, A Ya; Skorokhod, A V; Silvestrov, D S; Skorokhod, A V

    1997-01-01

    This book of problems is intended for students in pure and applied mathematics. There are problems in traditional areas of probability theory and problems in the theory of stochastic processes, which has wide applications in the theory of automatic control, queuing and reliability theories, and in many other modern science and engineering fields. Answers to most of the problems are given, and the book provides hints and solutions for more complicated problems.

  7. Choice Probability Generating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

  8. Survival probability of Baltic larval cod in relation to spatial overlap patterns with their prey obtained from drift model studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hinrichsen, H.H.; Schmidt, J.O.; Petereit, C.

    2005-01-01

    Temporal mismatch between the occurrence of larvae and their prey potentially affects the spatial overlap and thus the contact rates between predator and prey. This might have important consequences for growth and survival. We performed a case study investigating the influence of circulation......-prey overlap, dependent on the hatching time of cod larvae. By performing model runs for the years 1979-1998 investigated the intra- and interannual variability of potential spatial overlap between predator and prey. Assuming uniform prey distributions, we generally found the overlap to have decreased since...

  9. A brief introduction to probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

    2018-02-01

    The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

  10. Gene and antigen markers of Shiga-toxin producing E. coli from Michigan and Indiana river water: Occurrence and relation to recreational water quality criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duris, J.W.; Haack, S.K.; Fogarty, L.R.

    2009-01-01

    The relation of bacterial pathogen occurrence to fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) concentrations used for recreational water quality criteria (RWQC) is poorly understood. This study determined the occurrence of Shiga-toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) markers and their relation to FIB concentrations in Michigan and Indiana river water. Using 67 fecal coliform (FC) bacteria cultures from 41 river sites in multiple watersheds, we evaluated the occurrence of five STEC markers: the Escherichia coli (EC) O157 antigen and gene, and the STEC virulence genes eaeA, stx1, and stx2. Simple isolations from selected FC cultures yielded viable EC O157. By both antigen and gene assays, EC O157 was detected in a greater proportion of samples exceeding rather than meeting FC RWQC (P public health decision-making. Copyright ?? 2009 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

  11. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

  12. Nonstationarity in the occurrence rate of floods in the Tarim River basin, China, and related impacts of climate indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Xihui; Zhang, Qiang; Singh, Vijay P.; Chen, Xi; Liu, Lin

    2016-07-01

    Amplification of floods in the Xinjiang, China, has been observed, but reports on their changing properties and underlying mechanisms are not available. In this study, occurrence rates of floods in the Tarim River basin, the largest inland arid river basin in China, were analyzed using the Kernel density estimation technique and bootstrap resampling method. Also analyzed were the occurrence rates of precipitation extremes using the POT (Peak over Threshold)-based sampling method. Both stationary and non-stationary models were developed using GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) to model flood frequency with time, climate index, precipitation and temperature as major predictors. Results indicated: (1) two periods with increasing occurrence of floods, i.e., the late 1960s and the late 1990s with considerable fluctuations around 2-3 flood events during time intervals between the late 1960s and the late 1990s; (2) changes in the occurrence rates of floods were subject to nonstationarity. A persistent increase of flood frequency and magnitude was observed during the 1990s and reached a peak value; (3) AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and AO (Atlantic Oscillation) in winter were the key influencing climate indices impacting the occurrence rates of floods. However, NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and SOI (South Oscillation Index) are two principle factors that influence the occurrence rates of regional floods. The AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) values indicated that compared to the influence of climate indices, occurrence rates of floods seemed to be more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes. Results of this study are important for flood management and development of mitigation measures.

  13. Post-traumatic stress disorder and depression co-occurrence: Structural relations among disorder constructs and trait and symptom dimensions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Loren M; Feeny, Norah C; Zoellner, Lori A; Connell, Arin M

    2016-12-01

    Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) in response to trauma co-occur at high rates. A better understanding of the nature of this co-occurrence is critical to developing an accurate conceptualization of the disorders. This study examined structural relations among the PTSD and MDD constructs and trait and symptom dimensions within the framework of the integrative hierarchical model of anxiety and depression. Study participants completed clinician-rated and self-report measures during a pre-treatment assessment. The sample consisted of 200 treatment-seeking individuals with a primary DSM-IV PTSD diagnosis. Structural equation modelling was used to examine the relationship between the constructs. The trait negative affect/neuroticism construct had a direct effect on both PTSD and MDD. The trait positive affect/extraversion construct had a unique, negative direct effect on MDD, and PTSD had a unique, direct effect on the physical concerns symptoms construct. An alternative model with the PTSD and MDD constructs combined into an overall general traumatic stress construct produced a decrement in model fit. These findings provide a clearer understanding of the relationship between co-occurring PTSD and MDD as disorders with shared trait negative affect/neuroticism contributing to the overlap between them and unique trait positive affect/extraversion and physical concerns differentiating them. Therefore, PTSD and MDD in response to trauma may be best represented as two distinct, yet strongly related constructs. In assessing individuals who have been exposed to trauma, practitioners should recognize that co-occurring PTSD and MDD appears to be best represented as two distinct, yet strongly related constructs. Negative affect may be the shared vulnerability directly influencing both PTSD and MDD; however, in the presence of both PTSD and MDD, low positive affect appears to be more specifically related to MDD and fear of physical

  14. Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: Probability of bystander defibrillation relative to distance to nearest automated external defibrillator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sondergaard, Kathrine B; Hansen, Steen Moller; Pallisgaard, Jannik L; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Wissenberg, Mads; Karlsson, Lena; Lippert, Freddy K; Gislason, Gunnar H; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Folke, Fredrik

    2018-03-01

    Despite wide dissemination of automated external defibrillators (AEDs), bystander defibrillation rates remain low. We aimed to investigate how route distance to the nearest accessible AED was associated with probability of bystander defibrillation in public and residential locations. We used data from the nationwide Danish Cardiac Arrest Registry and the Danish AED Network to identify out-of-hospital cardiac arrests and route distances to nearest accessible registered AED during 2008-2013. The association between route distance and bystander defibrillation was described using restricted cubic spline logistic regression. We included 6971 out-of-hospital cardiac arrest cases. The proportion of arrests according to distance in meters (≤100, 101-200, >200) to the nearest accessible AED was: 4.6% (n=320), 5.3% (n=370), and 90.1% (n=6281), respectively. For cardiac arrests in public locations, the probability of bystander defibrillation at 0, 100 and 200m from the nearest AED was 35.7% (95% confidence interval 28.0%-43.5%), 21.3% (95% confidence interval 17.4%-25.2%), and 13.7% (95% confidence interval 10.1%-16.8%), respectively. The corresponding numbers for cardiac arrests in residential locations were 7.0% (95% confidence interval -2.1%-16.1%), 1.5% (95% confidence interval 0.002%-2.8%), and 0.9% (95% confidence interval 0.0005%-1.7%), respectively. In public locations, the probability of bystander defibrillation decreased rapidly within the first 100m route distance from cardiac arrest to nearest accessible AED whereas the probability of bystander defibrillation was low for all distances in residential areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Disponibilidade de horas de frio na região central do Rio Grande do Sul: 1 - Ocorrência de valores acumulados para diferentes níveis de probalidade Chilling hours in the central region of Rio Grande do Sul state: 1 - Occurrence of accumulated values for different levels of probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arno Bernardo Heldwein

    2000-10-01

    Full Text Available Determinaram-se as disponibilidades de horas de frio abaixo de 7°C (HFThe availability of chilling hours below 7°C (HF<7 and 13°C (HF<13 accumulated every 15 days up to certain date for different levels of probability (1, 10, 20, 50, 80, 90 and 99% in 9 different locations in the central region of Rio Grande do Sul, was determined. Daily chilling hours were measured with thermographes or estimated by minimum and maximum daily temperatures and temperature at 9 pm adapting an analytical method or by multiple regression analysis. A combination of two distributions was used in order to determine the probability of occurring chilling hours. The first was a discrete distribution employed to verify whether there were chilling hours within the interval of 15 days and the other was a continuous distribution to verify the number of chilling hours when occurring. The availability of accumulated chilling hours expected for a given probability was calculated based on the density of gamma distribution. Normal distribution was used only in few cases in which the "g" parameter of the gamma function was greater than 27. It was observed that at least in one of every two years there are above 75 accumulated HF<7 up to June 30 in all locations. The availability of accumulated chilling hours from April, 1st up to September, 15th in 50% of all years varied from 200 HF<7 and 1250 HF<13 in Cachoeira do Sul to 490 HF<7 and 1850 HF<13 in Sobradinho. It was also observed that the variability of chilling hours occurrence among years is large on all locations and the relative difference among the availability of the different locations is proportionally greater at HF<7 than at HF<13. Availability of accumulated chilling hours during April is very low for HF<7, but it is considerable at HF<13. The number of chilling hours decreases drastically from the first 15 days to the last 15 days of September in all locations.

  16. Occurrence of 3-chloro-propane-1,2-diol (3-MCPD) and related compounds in foods: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, C G; Sadd, P A; Crews, C; Velísek, J; Baxter, D E

    2002-07-01

    A critical review of the occurrence of 3-chloro-propane-1,2-diol (3-MCPD) in foods not known to contain hydrolysed vegetable proteins is presented. The review covers the properties and chemistry of 3-MCPD and the current methods of analysis in foodstuffs. The results of UK surveys of 3-MCPD occurrence in both retail foods and commercial food ingredients are discussed with particular reference to cereal, meat and dairy products. The possible mechanisms for the formation and decay of 3-MCPD in foods are suggested. The review does not cover the detailed toxicology of 3-MCPD and its occurrence in hydrolysed vegetable proteins, which have been considered elsewhere, nor possible issues such as in-vivo formation.

  17. World Trade Center disaster exposure-related probable posttraumatic stress disorder among responders and civilians: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bian; Tarigan, Lukman H; Bromet, Evelyn J; Kim, Hyun

    2014-01-01

    The World Trade Center (WTC) disaster on September 11, 2001 was an unprecedented traumatic event with long-lasting health consequences among the affected populations in the New York metropolitan area. This meta-analysis aimed to estimate the risk of probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) associated with specific types of WTC exposures. Meta-analytical findings from 10 studies of 3,271 to 20,294 participants yielded 37 relevant associations. The pooled summary odds ratio (OR) was 2.05 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.82, 2.32), with substantial heterogeneity linked to exposure classification, cohort type, data source, PTSD assessment instrument/criteria, and lapse time since 9/11. In general, responders (e.g. police, firefighters, rescue/recovery workers and volunteers) had a lower probable PTSD risk (OR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.39, 1.87) compared to civilians (e.g. residents, office workers, and passersby; OR = 2.71, 95% CI: 2.35, 3.12). The differences in ORs between responders and civilians were larger for physical compared to psychosocial exposure types. We also found that injury, lost someone, and witnessed horror were the three (out of six) most pernicious exposures. These findings suggest that these three exposures should be a particular focus in psychological evaluation and treatment programs in WTC intervention and future emergency preparedness efforts.

  18. World Trade Center disaster exposure-related probable posttraumatic stress disorder among responders and civilians: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bian Liu

    Full Text Available The World Trade Center (WTC disaster on September 11, 2001 was an unprecedented traumatic event with long-lasting health consequences among the affected populations in the New York metropolitan area. This meta-analysis aimed to estimate the risk of probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD associated with specific types of WTC exposures. Meta-analytical findings from 10 studies of 3,271 to 20,294 participants yielded 37 relevant associations. The pooled summary odds ratio (OR was 2.05 (95% confidence interval (CI: 1.82, 2.32, with substantial heterogeneity linked to exposure classification, cohort type, data source, PTSD assessment instrument/criteria, and lapse time since 9/11. In general, responders (e.g. police, firefighters, rescue/recovery workers and volunteers had a lower probable PTSD risk (OR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.39, 1.87 compared to civilians (e.g. residents, office workers, and passersby; OR = 2.71, 95% CI: 2.35, 3.12. The differences in ORs between responders and civilians were larger for physical compared to psychosocial exposure types. We also found that injury, lost someone, and witnessed horror were the three (out of six most pernicious exposures. These findings suggest that these three exposures should be a particular focus in psychological evaluation and treatment programs in WTC intervention and future emergency preparedness efforts.

  19. Ankylosing spondylitis in Danish and Norwegian twins: occurrence and the relative importance of genetic vs. environmental effectors in disease causation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, O B; Svendsen, Anders Jørgen; Ejstrup, L

    2008-01-01

    genetic effects account for 94% (95% CI 0.56-0.99) of the variance in the causation of AS. CONCLUSION: Self-reported AS needs careful validation. The occurrence of AS in a Danish twin population was 0.1% and accords well with previous studies on singletons in hospital settings. The present study adds...

  20. Modulation of cognitive control levels via manipulation of saccade trial-type probability assessed with event-related BOLD fMRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, Jordan E; McDowell, Jennifer E

    2016-02-01

    Cognitive control supports flexible behavior adapted to meet current goals and can be modeled through investigation of saccade tasks with varying cognitive demands. Basic prosaccades (rapid glances toward a newly appearing stimulus) are supported by neural circuitry, including occipital and posterior parietal cortex, frontal and supplementary eye fields, and basal ganglia. These trials can be contrasted with complex antisaccades (glances toward the mirror image location of a stimulus), which are characterized by greater functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signal in the aforementioned regions and recruitment of additional regions such as dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. The current study manipulated the cognitive demands of these saccade tasks by presenting three rapid event-related runs of mixed saccades with a varying probability of antisaccade vs. prosaccade trials (25, 50, or 75%). Behavioral results showed an effect of trial-type probability on reaction time, with slower responses in runs with a high antisaccade probability. Imaging results exhibited an effect of probability in bilateral pre- and postcentral gyrus, bilateral superior temporal gyrus, and medial frontal gyrus. Additionally, the interaction between saccade trial type and probability revealed a strong probability effect for prosaccade trials, showing a linear increase in activation parallel to antisaccade probability in bilateral temporal/occipital, posterior parietal, medial frontal, and lateral prefrontal cortex. In contrast, antisaccade trials showed elevated activation across all runs. Overall, this study demonstrated that improbable performance of a typically simple prosaccade task led to augmented BOLD signal to support changing cognitive control demands, resulting in activation levels similar to the more complex antisaccade task. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

  1. New Histologic Findings in Idiopathic Mesenteric Phlebosclerosis: Clues to Its Pathogenesis and Etiology—Probably Ingested Toxic Agent-related

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuo-Ming Chang

    2007-06-01

    Conclusion: A pathogenesis is suggested for at least a subgroup of cases of IMP: the disease is initiated by a slow but longstanding direct hypoxic injury to the venous muscular layer, which leads to gradual mummification and then sclerosis and calcification of the venous muscle. This is followed by the repeated same damage of the subsequent reactively hyper-plastic myointima in the veins, and these changes finally result in gradual venous occlusion. Certain toxins or biochemi-cals, probably existing in the frequently ingested contents and absorbed to the venous return, may play the most important role in this damage. However, analysis of more cases is required to support the proposal, and if such support is found, the toxic agents remain to be clarified via further laboratory investigations.

  2. Risk factors for occurrence of displaced abomasum and their relation to nutritional management of Holstein dairy cattle

    OpenAIRE

    Behluli, Behlul; Musliu, Arben; Sherifi, Kurtesh; Youngs, Curtis R.; Rexhepi, Agim

    2017-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to identify nutritional risk factors for the occurrence of displaced abomasum (DA) in Holstein dairy cattle raised in regions with highly variable nutritional management. Feeding program data were collected from 30 dairy farms throughout Kosovo via use of a standardized questionnaire, and an AgriNIR™ Analyser was used to analyze the nutrient composition of forage (hay, corn silage) fed to cattle on those farms. A diagnosis of DA was made via auscultation/percu...

  3. Impact of Computer Related Posture on the Occurrence of Musculoskeletal Discomfort among Secondary School Students in Lagos, Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odebiyi, D O; Olawale, O A; Adeniji, Y M

    2013-01-01

    Computers have become an essential part of life particularly in industrially advanced countries of the world. Children now have greater accessibility to computers both at school and at home. Recent studies suggest that with this increased exposure, there are associated musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) in both school-aged children and adults. To assess the posture assumed by secondary school students during computer use and its impact on the occurrence and severity of reported musculoskeletal discomforts. Posture assumed during normal computer class, occurrence of discomforts, body parts involved and the intensity of discomforts were evaluated in 235 school aged children using Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) scale, Body Discomfort Chart (BDC) and Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) before and after normal computer class. Inferential statistics of t-test and chi-square were used to determine significance difference between variables, with level of significant set at p Computer use produced significant discomforts on the neck, shoulder and low back. There was a significant relationship between participants height and posture assumed. Two hundred and eleven (89.8%) participants reported discomforts/pain during the use of computer. Weight and height were contributory factors to the occurrence of musculoskeletal discomfort/pain (p computer use. Weight and height were implicated as factors that influenced the form of posture and the nature of the reported discomfort. Creating awareness about the knowledge of ergonomics and safety for promotion of good posture was therefore recommended.

  4. Probability in quantum mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Gilson

    1982-01-01

    Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.

  5. Neotethyan rifting-related ore occurrences: study of an accretionary mélange complex (Darnó Unit, NE Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiss Gabriella B.

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The geology of the NE Hungarian Darnó Unit is rather complicated, as it is composed mostly of a Jurassic accretionary mélange complex, according to the most recent investigations. The magmatic and sedimentary rock blocks of the mélange represent products of different evolutionary stages of the Neotethys; including Permian and Triassic sedimentary rocks of marine rifting related origin, Triassic pillow basalt of advanced rifting related origin and Jurassic pillow basalt originated in back-arc-basin environment. This small unit contains a copper-gold occurrence in the Permian marly-clayey limestone, an iron enrichment in the Triassic sedimentary succession, a copper-silver ore occurrence in Triassic pillow basalts and a copper ore indication, occurring both in the Triassic and Jurassic pillow basalts. The present study deals with the Cu(-Ag occurrence in the Triassic basalt and the Fe occurrence in the Triassic sedimentary succession. The former shows significant similarities with the Michigan-type mineralizations, while the latter has typical characteristics of the Fe-SEDEX deposits. All the above localities fit well into the new geological model of the investigated area. The mineralizations represent the different evolutionary stages of the Neotethyan rifting and an epigenetic, Alpine metamorphism-related process and their recent, spatially close position is the result of the accretionary mélange formation. Thus, the Darnó Unit represents a perfect natural laboratory for studying and understanding the characteristic features of several different rifting related ore forming processes.

  6. How does variability in input load relate to the probability of critically delayed delivery in a simple Multipart Re-entrant Flow-line problem?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    2003-01-01

    of the estimation of the probability of critically delayed delivery beyond a specified threshold value given a certain production batch size and try to establish a relation to certain parameters that can be linked to the degree of regularity of the arrival stream of parts to the job/flow-shop. This last aspect...... relates remotely to the Lean Thinking philosophy that praises the smooth and uninterrupted production flow to be beneficial to the overall operation of productive plants in general, and we will link our findings to this discussion as well....

  7. Perturbative analysis of the influence of π+π- strong interaction on the relation between A2π creation probabilities in ns-states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voskresenskaya, O.O.

    2002-01-01

    It is shown that the relations between probabilities of A 2π -atoms creation in ns-states, derived with neglecting of the strong interaction between pions, hold practically unchanged if the strong interaction is taken into account in the first order of the perturbation theory. The formulation of Deser equation for the energy levels shift of the hadronic atoms (HA) is given in terms of the effective range of the strong interaction and relative correction to the Coulomb wave function of HA at origin, caused by the strong interaction. (author)

  8. Probability and predictors of cannabis use disorders relapse: results of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flórez-Salamanca, Ludwing; Secades-Villa, Roberto; Budney, Alan J; García-Rodríguez, Olaya; Wang, Shuai; Blanco, Carlos

    2013-09-01

    This study aims to estimate the odds and predictors of Cannabis Use Disorders (CUD) relapse among individuals in remission. Analyses were done on the subsample of individuals with lifetime history of a CUD (abuse or dependence) who were in full remission at baseline (Wave 1) of the National Epidemiological Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) (n=2350). Univariate logistic regression models and hierarchical logistic regression model were implemented to estimate odds of relapse and identify predictors of relapse at 3 years follow up (Wave 2). The relapse rate of CUD was 6.63% over an average of 3.6 year follow-up period. In the multivariable model, the odds of relapse were inversely related to time in remission, whereas having a history of conduct disorder or a major depressive disorder after Wave 1 increased the risk of relapse. Our findings suggest that maintenance of remission is the most common outcome for individuals in remission from a CUD. Treatment approaches may improve rates of sustained remission of individuals with CUD and conduct disorder or major depressive disorder. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Jugular Foramen Collision Tumor (Schwannoma and Plasma Cell Pseudotumor), a Probable IgG4-Related Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakhit, Mudathir S; Fujii, Masazumi; Jinguji, Shinya; Sato, Taku; Sakuma, Jun; Saito, Kiyoshi

    2017-06-01

    Lower cranial nerve sheath tumors are relatively rare. Cases of schwannoma collision tumors have rarely been reported, with most of the reported cases describing schwannoma and meningioma collision tumors. We report a very rare case of a cerebellopontine angle collision tumor of the ninth cranial nerve schwannoma with an IgG4 plasma cell pseudotumor. IgG4 plasma cell pseudotumors comprise a group of diseases called IgG4-related diseases (IgG4-RDs). These diseases usually affect organs such as the pancreas and salivary gland. Few cases of nervous system IgG4-RDs have been reported. Under intraoperative microscopy, the tumor in our case did not appear different from usual cases of schwannoma, but histopathology showed significant infiltration of IgG4 plasma cells. IgG4-RDs have a distinctive histopathologic pattern; however, their pathophysiology remains unclear. Special attention must be paid to the diagnosis of such diseases because they mimic other diseases and can be missed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Annotated bibliography of safety-related occurrences in pressurized-water nuclear power plants as reported in 1975

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, R.L.; Gallaher, R.B.

    1976-07-01

    The bibliography presented contains 100-word abstracts of reports to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission concerning operational events that occurred at pressurized-water reactor nuclear power plants in 1975. The report includes 1097 abstracts, arranged alphabetically by reactor name and then chronologically for each reactor, that describe incidents, failures, and design or construction deficiencies experienced at the facilities. Key-word and permuted-title indexes are provided to facilitate location of the subjects of interest, and tables summarizing the information contained in the bibliography are presented. The information listed in the tables includes instrument failures, equipment failures, system failures, causes of failures, deficiencies noted, and the time of occurrence (i.e., during refueling, operation, testing, or construction). A few of the unique events that occurred during the year are reviewed in detail

  11. Annotated bibliography of safety-related occurrences in boiling-water nuclear power plants as reported in 1976

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, R.L.; Gallaher, R.B.

    1977-01-01

    This bibliography contains 100-word abstracts of reports to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission concerning operational events that occurred at boiling-water reactor nuclear power plants in 1976. The report includes 1,253 abstracts that describe incidents, failures, and design or construction deficiencies that were experienced at the facilities. They are arranged alphabetically by reactor name and then chronologically for each reactor. Key-word and permuted-title indexes are provided to facilitate location of the subjects of interest, and tables that summarize the information contained in the bibliography are provided. The information listed in the tables includes instrument failures, equipment failures, system failures, causes of failures, deficiencies noted, and the time of occurrence (i.e., during refueling, operation, testing, or construction). Three of the unique events that occurred during the year are reviewed in detail

  12. Annotated bibliography of safety-related occurrences in pressurized-water nuclear power plants as reported in 1976

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, R.L.; Gallaher, R.B.

    1977-01-01

    The bibliography contains 100-word abstracts of reports to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission concerning operational events that occurred at pressurized-water reactor nuclear power plants in 1976. Included are 1264 abstracts that describe incidents, failures, and design construction deficiencies experienced at the facilities. They are arranged alphabetically by reactor name and then chronologically for each reactor. Key-word and permuted-title indexes are provided to facilitate location of the subjects of interest, and tables summarizing the information contained in the bibliography are presented. The information listed in the tables includes instrument failures, equipment failures, system failures, causes of failures, deficiencies noted, and the time of occurrence (i.e., during refueling, operation, testing, or construction). A few of the unique events that occurred during the year are reviewed in detail

  13. Occurrence of lead-related symptoms below the current occupational safety and health act allowable blood lead levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenman, Kenneth D; Sims, Amy; Luo, Zhehui; Gardiner, Joseph

    2003-05-01

    To determine the occurrence of symptoms of lead toxicity at levels below the current allowable Occupational Safety and Health Act blood lead level of 50 micrograms/dL, standardized telephone interviews were conducted of individuals reported to a statewide laboratory-based surveillance system. Four hundred and ninety-seven, or 75%, of the eligible participants were interviewed. Gastrointestinal, musculoskeletal, and nervous system symptoms increased with increasing blood lead levels. Nervous, gastrointestinal, and musculoskeletal symptoms all began to be increased in individuals with blood leads between 30-39 micrograms/dL and possibly at levels as low as 25-30 micrograms/dL for nervous system symptoms. The results of this study of increased symptoms are consistent with and provide added weight to previous results showing subclinical changes in the neurologic and renal systems and sperm counts at blood lead levels currently allowed by the Occupational Safety and Health Act.

  14. Annotated bibliography of safety-related occurrences in boiling-water nuclear power plants as reported in 1976

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, R.L.; Gallaher, R.B.

    1977-08-02

    This bibliography contains 100-word abstracts of reports to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission concerning operational events that occurred at boiling-water reactor nuclear power plants in 1976. The report includes 1,253 abstracts that describe incidents, failures, and design or construction deficiencies that were experienced at the facilities. They are arranged alphabetically by reactor name and then chronologically for each reactor. Key-word and permuted-title indexes are provided to facilitate location of the subjects of interest, and tables that summarize the information contained in the bibliography are provided. The information listed in the tables includes instrument failures, equipment failures, system failures, causes of failures, deficiencies noted, and the time of occurrence (i.e., during refueling, operation, testing, or construction). Three of the unique events that occurred during the year are reviewed in detail.

  15. Annotated bibliography of safety-related occurrences in pressurized-water nuclear power plants as reported in 1976

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, R.L.; Gallaher, R.B.

    1977-08-01

    The bibliography contains 100-word abstracts of reports to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission concerning operational events that occurred at pressurized-water reactor nuclear power plants in 1976. Included are 1264 abstracts that describe incidents, failures, and design construction deficiencies experienced at the facilities. They are arranged alphabetically by reactor name and then chronologically for each reactor. Key-word and permuted-title indexes are provided to facilitate location of the subjects of interest, and tables summarizing the information contained in the bibliography are presented. The information listed in the tables includes instrument failures, equipment failures, system failures, causes of failures, deficiencies noted, and the time of occurrence (i.e., during refueling, operation, testing, or construction). A few of the unique events that occurred during the year are reviewed in detail.

  16. Annotated bibliography of safety-related occurrences in boiling-water nuclear power plants as reported in 1975

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, R.L.; Gallaher, R.B.

    1976-07-01

    The bibliography presented contains 100-word abstracts of reports to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission concerning operational events that occurred at boiling-water reactor nuclear power plants in 1975. The report includes 1169 abstracts, arranged alphabetically by reactor name and then chronologically for each reactor, that describe incidents, failures, and design or construction deficiencies that were experienced at the facilities. Key-word and permuted-title indexes are provided to facilitate location of the subjects of interest, and tables that summarize the information contained in the bibliography are provided. The information listed in the tables includes instrument failures, equipment failures, system failures, causes of failures, deficiencies noted, and the time of occurrence (i.e., during refueling, operation, testing, or construction). Seven of the unique events that occurred during the year are reviewed in detail.

  17. Annotated bibliography of safety-related occurrences in pressurized-water nuclear power plants as reported in 1975

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, R.L.; Gallaher, R.B.

    1976-07-01

    The bibliography presented contains 100-word abstracts of reports to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission concerning operational events that occurred at pressurized-water reactor nuclear power plants in 1975. The report includes 1097 abstracts, arranged alphabetically by reactor name and then chronologically for each reactor, that describe incidents, failures, and design or construction deficiencies experienced at the facilities. Key-word and permuted-title indexes are provided to facilitate location of the subjects of interest, and tables summarizing the information contained in the bibliography are presented. The information listed in the tables includes instrument failures, equipment failures, system failures, causes of failures, deficiencies noted, and the time of occurrence (i.e., during refueling, operation, testing, or construction). A few of the unique events that occurred during the year are reviewed in detail.

  18. Annotated bibliography of safety-related occurrences in boiling-water nuclear power plants as reported in 1975

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, R.L.; Gallaher, R.B.

    1976-07-01

    The bibliography presented contains 100-word abstracts of reports to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission concerning operational events that occurred at boiling-water reactor nuclear power plants in 1975. The report includes 1169 abstracts, arranged alphabetically by reactor name and then chronologically for each reactor, that describe incidents, failures, and design or construction deficiencies that were experienced at the facilities. Key-word and permuted-title indexes are provided to facilitate location of the subjects of interest, and tables that summarize the information contained in the bibliography are provided. The information listed in the tables includes instrument failures, equipment failures, system failures, causes of failures, deficiencies noted, and the time of occurrence (i.e., during refueling, operation, testing, or construction). Seven of the unique events that occurred during the year are reviewed in detail

  19. EEG patterns in theta and gamma frequency range and their probable relation to human voluntary movement organization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popivanov, D; Mineva, A; Krekule, I

    1999-05-21

    In experiments with EEG accompanying continuous slow goal-directed voluntary movements we found abrupt short-term transients (STs) of the coefficients of EEG time-varying autoregressive (TVAR) model. The onset of STs indicated (i) a positive EEG wave related to an increase of 3-7 Hz oscillations in time period before the movement start, (ii) synchronization of 35-40 Hz prior to movement start and during the movement when the target is nearly reached. Both these phenomena are expressed predominantly over supplementary motor area, premotor and parietal cortices. These patterns were detected after averaging of EEG segments synchronized to the abrupt changes of the TVAR coefficients computed in the time course of EEG single records. The results are discussed regarding the cognitive aspect of organization of goal-directed movements.

  20. Association of genetic variants of the incretin-related genes with quantitative traits and occurrence of type 2 diabetes in Japanese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enya, Mayumi; Horikawa, Yukio; Iizuka, Katsumi; Takeda, Jun

    2014-01-01

    None of the high frequency variants of the incretin-related genes has been found by genome-wide association study (GWAS) for association with occurrence of type 2 diabetes in Japanese. However, low frequency and rare and/or high frequency variants affecting glucose metabolic traits remain to be investigated. We screened all exons of the incretin-related genes ( GCG , GLP1R , DPP4 , PCSK1 , GIP , and GIPR ) in 96 patients with type 2 diabetes and investigated for association of genetic variants of these genes with quantitative metabolic traits upon test meal with 38 young healthy volunteers and with the occurrence of type 2 diabetes in Japanese subjects comprising 1303 patients with type 2 diabetes and 1014 controls. Two mutations of GIPR , p.Thr3Alafsx21 and Arg183Gln, were found only in patients with type 2 diabetes, and both of them were treated with insulin. Of ten tagSNPs, we found that risk allele C of SNP393 (rs6235) of PCSK1 was nominally associated with higher fasting insulin and HOMA-R ( P  = 0.034 and P  = 0.030), but not with proinsulin level, incretin level or BMI. The variant showed significant association with occurrence of type 2 diabetes after adjustment for age, sex, and BMI ( P  = 0.0043). Rare variants of GIPR may contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes, possibly through insulin secretory defects. Furthermore, the genetic variant of PCSK1 might influence glucose homeostasis by altered insulin resistance independently of BMI, incretin level or proinsulin conversion, and may be associated with the occurrence of type 2 diabetes in Japanese.

  1. Association of genetic variants of the incretin-related genes with quantitative traits and occurrence of type 2 diabetes in Japanese

    OpenAIRE

    Mayumi Enya; Yukio Horikawa; Katsumi Iizuka; Jun Takeda

    2014-01-01

    Background: None of the high frequency variants of the incretin-related genes has been found by genome-wide association study (GWAS) for association with occurrence of type 2 diabetes in Japanese. However, low frequency and rare and/or high frequency variants affecting glucose metabolic traits remain to be investigated. Method: We screened all exons of the incretin-related genes (GCG, GLP1R, DPP4, PCSK1, GIP, and GIPR) in 96 patients with type 2 diabetes and investigated for association of...

  2. Occurrence and variability of mining-related lead and zinc in the Spring River flood plain and tributary flood plains, Cherokee County, Kansas, 2009--11

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juracek, Kyle E.

    2013-01-01

    Historical mining activity in the Tri-State Mining District (TSMD), located in parts of southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma, has resulted in a substantial ongoing input of cadmium, lead, and zinc to the environment. To provide some of the information needed to support remediation efforts in the Cherokee County, Kansas, superfund site, a 4-year study was begun in 2009 by the U.S. Geological Survey that was requested and funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. A combination of surficial-soil sampling and coring was used to investigate the occurrence and variability of mining-related lead and zinc in the flood plains of the Spring River and several tributaries within the superfund site. Lead- and zinc-contaminated flood plains are a concern, in part, because they represent a long-term source of contamination to the fluvial environment. Lead and zinc contamination was assessed with reference to probable-effect concentrations (PECs), which represent the concentrations above which adverse aquatic biological effects are likely to occur. The general PECs for lead and zinc were 128 and 459 milligrams per kilogram, respectively. The TSMD-specific PECs for lead and zinc were 150 and 2,083 milligrams per kilogram, respectively. Typically, surficial soils in the Spring River flood plain had lead and zinc concentrations that were less than the general PECs. Lead and zinc concentrations in the surficial-soil samples were variable with distance downstream and with distance from the Spring River channel, and the largest lead and zinc concentrations usually were located near the channel. Lead and zinc concentrations larger than the general or TSMD-specific PECs, or both, were infrequent at depth in the Spring River flood plain. When present, such contamination typically was confined to the upper 2 feet of the core and frequently was confined to the upper 6 inches. Tributaries with few or no lead- and zinc-mined areas in the basin—Brush Creek

  3. The Occurrence and Toxicity of Disinfection Byproducts in European Drinking Waters in Relation with the HIWATE Epidemiology Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Clara H.; Wagner, Elizabeth D.; Siebert, Vincent R.; Anduri, Sridevi; Richardson, Susan D.; Daiber, Eric J.; McKague, A. Bruce; Kogevinas, Manolis; Villanueva, Cristina M.; Goslan, Emma H.; Luo, Wentai; Isabelle, Lorne M.; Pankow, James F.; Grazuleviciene, Regina; Cordier, Sylvaine; Edwards, Susan C.; Righi, Elena; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J.; Plewa, Michael J.

    2012-01-01

    The HIWATE (Health Impacts of long-term exposure to disinfection byproducts in drinking WATEr) project was a systematic analysis that combined the epidemiology on adverse pregnancy outcomes and other health effects with long term exposure to low levels of drinking water disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in the European Union. The present study focused on the relationship of the occurrence and concentration of DBPs with in vitro mammalian cell toxicity. Eleven drinking water samples were collected from 5 European countries. Each sampling location corresponded with an epidemiological study for the HIWATE program. Over 90 DBPs were identified; the range in the number of DBPs and their levels reflected the diverse collection sites, different disinfection processes, and the different characteristics of the source waters. For each sampling site, chronic mammalian cell cytotoxicity correlated highly with the numbers of DBPs identified and the levels of DBP chemical classes. Although there was a clear difference in the genotoxic responses among the drinking waters, these data did not correlate as well with the chemical analyses. Thus, the agents responsible for the genomic DNA damage observed in the HIWATE samples may be due to unresolved associations of combinations of identified DBPs, unknown emerging DBPs that were not identified, or other toxic water contaminants. This study represents the first to integrate quantitative in vitro toxicological data with analytical chemistry and human epidemiologic outcomes for drinking water DBPs. PMID:22958121

  4. THEY MIGHT BE GIANTS: LUMINOSITY CLASS, PLANET OCCURRENCE, AND PLANET-METALLICITY RELATION OF THE COOLEST KEPLER TARGET STARS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mann, Andrew W.; Hilton, Eric J. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Gaidos, Eric [Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Lepine, Sebastien, E-mail: amann@ifa.hawaii.edu [Department of Astrophysics, American Museum of Natural History, New York, NY 10024 (United States)

    2012-07-01

    We estimate the stellar parameters of late K- and early M-type Kepler target stars. We obtain medium-resolution visible spectra of 382 stars with K{sub P} - J > 2 ({approx_equal}K5 and later spectral type). We determine luminosity class by comparing the strength of gravity-sensitive indices (CaH, K I, Ca II, and Na I) to their strength in a sample of stars of known luminosity class. We find that giants constitute 96% {+-} 1% of the bright (K{sub P} < 14) Kepler target stars, and 7% {+-} 3% of dim (K{sub P} > 14) stars, significantly higher than fractions based on the stellar parameters quoted in the Kepler Input Catalog (KIC). The KIC effective temperatures are systematically (110{sup +15}{sub -35} K) higher than temperatures we determine from fitting our spectra to PHOENIX stellar models. Through Monte Carlo simulations of the Kepler exoplanet candidate population, we find a planet occurrence of 0.36 {+-} 0.08 when giant stars are properly removed, somewhat higher than when a KIC log g > 4 criterion is used (0.27 {+-} 0.05). Last, we show that there is no significant difference in g - r color (a probe of metallicity) between late-type Kepler stars with transiting Earth-to-Neptune-size exoplanet candidates and dwarf stars with no detected transits. We show that a previous claimed offset between these two populations is most likely an artifact of including a large number of misidentified giants.

  5. How does variability in input load relate to the probability of critically delayed delivery in a simple Multipart Re-entrant Flow-line problem?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we will discuss aspects of the computation of tail-probabilities by simulation in the context of a generic job/flow-shop model consisting of structural elements such as bottle-necks, re-entrance as well as a mixture of these two fundamental types of production complexity and all thi...... relates remotely to the Lean Thinking philosophy that praises the smooth and uninterrupted production flow to be beneficial to the overall operation of productive plants in general, and we will link our findings to this discussion as well....

  6. Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

    OpenAIRE

    Saad, Emad

    2013-01-01

    Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

  7. Simulation of Daily Weather Data Using Theoretical Probability Distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruhn, J. A.; Fry, W. E.; Fick, G. W.

    1980-09-01

    A computer simulation model was constructed to supply daily weather data to a plant disease management model for potato late blight. In the weather model Monte Carlo techniques were employed to generate daily values of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation. Each weather variable is described by a known theoretical probability distribution but the values of the parameters describing each distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rainfall. Precipitation occurrence is described by a first-order Markov chain. The amount of rain, given that rain has occurred, is described by a gamma probability distribution. Maximum and minimum temperature are simulated with a trivariate normal probability distribution involving maximum temperature on the previous day, maximum temperature on the current day and minimum temperature on the current day. Parameter values for this distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the previous day. Both minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation are assumed to be normally distributed. The values of the parameters describing the distribution of minimum relative humidity is dependent on rainfall occurrence on the previous day and current day. Parameter values for total solar radiation are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the current day. The assumptions made during model construction were found to be appropriate for actual weather data from Geneva, New York. The performance of the weather model was evaluated by comparing the cumulative frequency distributions of simulated weather data with the distributions of actual weather data from Geneva, New York and Fort Collins, Colorado. For each location, simulated weather data were similar to actual weather data in terms of mean response, variability and autocorrelation. The possible applications of this model when used with models of other components of the agro-ecosystem are discussed.

  8. Relative transition probabilities for krypton.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, M. H.; Roig, R. A.; Bengtson, R. D.

    1972-01-01

    First experimental line strength data for the visible Kr II lines and for several of the more prominent Kr I lines are given. The spectroscopic light source used is the thermal plasma behind the reflected shock wave in a gas-driven shock tube. A 3/4-m spectrograph and a 1-m spectrograph were employed simultaneously to provide redundant photometry. The data are compared with other measurements and with theoretical calculations.

  9. Propositional Versus Dual-Process Accounts of Evaluative Conditioning: I. The Effects of Co-Occurrence and Relational Information on Implicit and Explicit Evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiaoqing; Gawronski, Bertram; Balas, Robert

    2017-01-01

    Evaluative conditioning (EC) is defined as the change in the evaluation of a conditioned stimulus (CS) due to its pairing with a valenced unconditioned stimulus (US). According to propositional accounts, EC effects should be qualified by the relation between the CS and the US. Dual-process accounts suggest that relational information should qualify EC effects on explicit evaluations, whereas implicit evaluations should reflect the frequency of CS-US co-occurrences. Experiments 1 and 2 showed that, when relational information was provided before the encoding of CS-US pairings, it moderated EC effects on explicit, but not implicit, evaluations. In Experiment 3, relational information moderated EC effects on both explicit and implicit evaluations when it was provided simultaneously with CS-US pairings. Frequency of CS-US pairings had no effect on implicit evaluations. Although the results can be reconciled with both propositional and dual-process accounts, they are more parsimoniously explained by propositional accounts.

  10. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

  11. Irreversibility and conditional probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    The mathematical entropy - unlike physical entropy - is simply a measure of uniformity for probability distributions in general. So understood, conditional entropies have the same logical structure as conditional probabilities. If, as is sometimes supposed, conditional probabilities are time-reversible, then so are conditional entropies and, paradoxically, both then share this symmetry with physical equations of motion. The paradox is, of course that probabilities yield a direction to time both in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, while the equations of motion do not. The supposed time-reversibility of both conditionals seems also to involve a form of retrocausality that is related to, but possibly not the same as, that described by Costa de Beaurgard. The retrocausality is paradoxically at odds with the generally presumed irreversibility of the quantum mechanical measurement process. Further paradox emerges if the supposed time-reversibility of the conditionals is linked with the idea that the thermodynamic entropy is the same thing as 'missing information' since this confounds the thermodynamic and mathematical entropies. However, it is shown that irreversibility is a formal consequence of conditional entropies and, hence, of conditional probabilities also. 8 refs. (Author)

  12. Cueing spatial attention through timing and probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girardi, Giovanna; Antonucci, Gabriella; Nico, Daniele

    2013-01-01

    Even when focused on an effortful task we retain the ability to detect salient environmental information, and even irrelevant visual stimuli can be automatically detected. However, to which extent unattended information affects attentional control is not fully understood. Here we provide evidences of how the brain spontaneously organizes its cognitive resources by shifting attention between a selective-attending and a stimulus-driven modality within a single task. Using a spatial cueing paradigm we investigated the effect of cue-target asynchronies as a function of their probabilities of occurrence (i.e., relative frequency). Results show that this accessory information modulates attentional shifts. A valid spatial cue improved participants' performance as compared to an invalid one only in trials in which target onset was highly predictable because of its more robust occurrence. Conversely, cuing proved ineffective when spatial cue and target were associated according to a less frequent asynchrony. These patterns of response depended on asynchronies' probability and not on their duration. Our findings clearly demonstrate that through a fine decision-making, performed trial-by-trial, the brain utilizes implicit information to decide whether or not voluntarily shifting spatial attention. As if according to a cost-planning strategy, the cognitive effort of shifting attention depending on the cue is performed only when the expected advantages are higher. In a trade-off competition for cognitive resources, voluntary/automatic attending may thus be a more complex process than expected. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Mycotoxin occurrence in maize produced in Northern Italy over the years 2009–2011: focus on the role of crop related factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco CAMARDO LEGGIERI

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The occurrence of mycotoxins associated with Fusarium spp. and Aspergillus flavus in Northern Italy, and the role of cropping systems, were investigated on 140 field samples collected over the years 2009–2011. Samples were analysed for fumonisins B1 and B2 (FBs, aflatoxins B1, B2, G1 and G2 (AFs, deoxynivalenol (DON and zearalenone (ZEN using validated analytical methods. Information on: maize hybrid, preceding crop, tillage applied, mineral nutrition, pest and disease control, severity of European Corn Borer (ECB attack, sowing and harvesting dates, kernel moisture at harvesting and longitude of the sampled province, were also collected. During this period there were distinct differences in FBs and AFs concentrations between years and geographic origins, and very low contamination with DON and ZEN was always found. The incidence of AFs exceeded 75% across all samples, and was almost 100% for FBs. The meteorological trends were quite different in the 3 years surveyed. 2009 was the coldest in June and the warmest in August, 2010 the most humid, and in 2011 cold weather occurred during flowering and dry conditions during ripening. The run of a logistic equation with the backward stepwise approach selected three parameters, (seeding week, ECB severity and longitude of sampling province to predict AFB1 contamination and four parameters (year, sowing week, ECB severity and longitude of sampling province to predict FB contamination. The internal validation gave good results, with 76% correct predictions. The probability of harvesting maize with more than 5 µg kg-1 of AFB1 varied between 86 and 5%, and the probability of harvesting maize with more than 4,000 µg kg-1 of FBs varied between 81 and 2%, respectively, for conducive and non-conducive environments. Therefore, considerable variability was found even if a limited area and only 3 years were considered.

  14. Can favorable psychosocial work conditions and high work dedication protect against the occurrence of work-related musculoskeletal disorders?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joling, C.I.; Blatter, B.M.; Ybema, J.F.; Bongers, P.M.

    2008-01-01

    Objectives. This study investigated whether work dedication and job resources are longitudinally related to work-related musculoskeletal disorders and whether job resources buffer the impact of job demands on these disorders? Methods. Data were used from a longitudinal three-phase study (2004, 2005,

  15. A differential equation for the transition probability B(E2)↑ and the resulting recursion relations connecting even–even nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pattnaik, S. [Taratarini College, Purusottampur, Ganjam, Odisha (India); Nayak, R. C. [Department of Physics, Berhampur University, Brahmapur-760007 (India)

    2014-04-15

    We obtain here a new relation for the reduced electric quadrupole transition probability B(E2)↑ of a given nucleus in terms of its derivatives with respect to neutron and proton numbers based on a similar local energy relation in the Infinite Nuclear Matter (INM) model of atomic nuclei, which is essentially built on the foundation of the Hugenholtz–Van Hove (HVH) theorem of many-body theory. Obviously, such a relation in the form of a differential equation is expected to be more powerful than the usual algebraic difference equations. Although the relation for B(E2)↑ has been perceived simply on the basis of a corresponding differential equation for the local energy in the INM model, its theoretical foundation otherwise has been clearly demonstrated. We further exploit the differential equation in using the very definitions of the derivatives to obtain two different recursion relations for B(E2)↑, connecting in each case three neighboring even–even nuclei from lower to higher mass numbers and vice versa. We demonstrate their numerical validity using available data throughout the nuclear chart and also explore their possible utility in predicting B(E2)↑ values. (author)

  16. A differential equation for the transition probability B(E2)↑ and the resulting recursion relations connecting even–even nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pattnaik, S.; Nayak, R.C.

    2014-01-01

    We obtain here a new relation for the reduced electric quadrupole transition probability B(E2)↑ of a given nucleus in terms of its derivatives with respect to neutron and proton numbers based on a similar local energy relation in the Infinite Nuclear Matter (INM) model of atomic nuclei, which is essentially built on the foundation of the Hugenholtz–Van Hove (HVH) theorem of many-body theory. Obviously, such a relation in the form of a differential equation is expected to be more powerful than the usual algebraic difference equations. Although the relation for B(E2)↑ has been perceived simply on the basis of a corresponding differential equation for the local energy in the INM model, its theoretical foundation otherwise has been clearly demonstrated. We further exploit the differential equation in using the very definitions of the derivatives to obtain two different recursion relations for B(E2)↑, connecting in each case three neighboring even–even nuclei from lower to higher mass numbers and vice versa. We demonstrate their numerical validity using available data throughout the nuclear chart and also explore their possible utility in predicting B(E2)↑ values. (author)

  17. Prediction of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs) in patients with haematologic malignancies using a modified Infection Probability Score (mIPS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schalk, Enrico; Hanus, Lynn; Färber, Jacqueline; Fischer, Thomas; Heidel, Florian H

    2015-09-01

    The aim of this study was to predict the probability of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs) in patients with haematologic malignancies using a modified version of the Infection Probability Score (mIPS). In order to perform a prospective, mono-centric surveillance of complications in clinical routine due to short-term central venous catheters (CVCs) in consecutive patients receiving chemotherapy from March 2013 to September 2014, IPS was calculated at CVC insertion and removal (mIPSin and mIPSex, respectively). We used the 2012 Infectious Diseases Working Party of the German Society of Haematology and Medical Oncology (AGIHO/DGHO) criteria to define CRBSI. In total, 143 patients (mean 59.5 years, 61.4 % male) with 267 triple-lumen CVCs (4044 CVC days; mean 15.1 days, range 1-60 days) were analysed. CVCs were inserted for therapy of acute leukaemia (53.2 %), multiple myeloma (24.3 %) or lymphoma (11.2 %), and 93.6 % were inserted in the jugular vein. A total of 66 CRBSI cases (24.7 %) were documented (12 definite/13 probable/41 possible). The incidence was 16.3/1000 CVC days (2.9/3.1/10.1 per 1000 CVC days for definite/probable/possible CRBSI, respectively). In CRBSI cases, the mIPSex was higher as compared to cases without CRBSI (13.1 vs. 7.1; p < 0.001). The best mIPSex cutoff for CRBSI prediction was 8 points (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.77; sensitivity = 84.9 %, specificity = 60.7 %, negative predictive value = 92.4 %). For patients with an mIPSex ≥8, the risk for a CRBSI was high (odds ratio [OR] = 5.9; p < 0.001) and even increased if, additionally, CVC had been in use for about 10 days (OR = 9.8; p < 0.001). In case other causes of infection are excluded, a mIPSex ≥8 and duration of CVC use of about 10 days predict a very high risk of CRBSI. Patients with a mIPSex <8 have a low risk of CRBSI of 8 %.

  18. Is radioactive iodine-131 treatment related to the occurrence of non-synchronous second primary malignancy in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souza, Marcelo Cruzick de; Momesso, Denise P.; Vieira Neto, Leonardo; Vaisman, Mario; Vaisman, Fernanda; Corbo, Rossana; Martins, Rosangela Aparecida Gomes

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Much controversy relates to the risk of non-synchronous second primary malignancies (NSSPM) after radioactive iodine treatment (RAI-131) in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients. This study evaluated the relationship between RAI-131 and NSSPM in DTC survivors with long-term follow-up. Materials and methods: Retrospective analysis of 413 DTC cases was performed; 252 received RAI-131 and 161 were treated with thyroidectomy alone. Exclusion criteria were: prior or synchronous non-thyroidal malignancies (within the first year), familial syndromes associated to multiple neoplasms, ionizing radiation exposure or second tumors with unknown histopathology. Results: During a mean follow-up of 11.0 ± 7.5 years, 17 (4.1%) patients developed solid NSSPM. Patients with NSSPM were older than those without (p = 0.02). RAI-131 and I-131 cumulative activity were similar in patients with and without NSSPM (p = 0.18 and p = 0.78, respectively). Incidence of NSSPM was 5.2% in patients with RAI-131 treatment and 2.5% in those without RAI-131 (p = 0.18). Using multivariate analysis, RAI-131 was not significantly associated with NSSPM occurrence (p = 0.35); age was the only independent predictor (p = 0.04). Under log rank statistical analysis, after 10 years of follow-up, it was observed a tendency of lower NSSPM-free survival among patients that received RAI-131 treatment (0.96 vs. 0.87; p = 0.06), what was not affected by age at DTC diagnosis. Conclusion: In our cohort of DTC survivors, with a long-term follow-up period, RAI-131 treatment and I-131 cumulative dose were not significantly associated with NSSPM occurrence. A tendency of premature NSSPM occurrence among patients treated with RAI-131 was observed, suggesting an anticipating oncogenic effect by interaction with other risk factors. (author)

  19. Is radioactive iodine-{sup 131} treatment related to the occurrence of non-synchronous second primary malignancy in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souza, Marcelo Cruzick de; Momesso, Denise P.; Vieira Neto, Leonardo; Vaisman, Mario, E-mail: dmomesso@terra.com.br [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ, (Brazil). Servico de Endocrinologia; Vaisman, Fernanda; Corbo, Rossana [Instituto Nacional do Cancer (INCA), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Servico de Endocrinologia; Martins, Rosangela Aparecida Gomes [Hospital Universitario Clementino Fraga Filho (HUCFF), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Divisao de Pesquisa

    2016-02-15

    Objective: Much controversy relates to the risk of non-synchronous second primary malignancies (NSSPM) after radioactive iodine treatment (RAI-131) in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients. This study evaluated the relationship between RAI-131 and NSSPM in DTC survivors with long-term follow-up. Materials and methods: Retrospective analysis of 413 DTC cases was performed; 252 received RAI-131 and 161 were treated with thyroidectomy alone. Exclusion criteria were: prior or synchronous non-thyroidal malignancies (within the first year), familial syndromes associated to multiple neoplasms, ionizing radiation exposure or second tumors with unknown histopathology. Results: During a mean follow-up of 11.0 ± 7.5 years, 17 (4.1%) patients developed solid NSSPM. Patients with NSSPM were older than those without (p = 0.02). RAI-131 and I-131 cumulative activity were similar in patients with and without NSSPM (p = 0.18 and p = 0.78, respectively). Incidence of NSSPM was 5.2% in patients with RAI-131 treatment and 2.5% in those without RAI-131 (p = 0.18). Using multivariate analysis, RAI-131 was not significantly associated with NSSPM occurrence (p = 0.35); age was the only independent predictor (p = 0.04). Under log rank statistical analysis, after 10 years of follow-up, it was observed a tendency of lower NSSPM-free survival among patients that received RAI-131 treatment (0.96 vs. 0.87; p = 0.06), what was not affected by age at DTC diagnosis. Conclusion: In our cohort of DTC survivors, with a long-term follow-up period, RAI-131 treatment and I-131 cumulative dose were not significantly associated with NSSPM occurrence. A tendency of premature NSSPM occurrence among patients treated with RAI-131 was observed, suggesting an anticipating oncogenic effect by interaction with other risk factors. (author)

  20. A hierarchical community occurrence model for North Carolina stream fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Midway, S.R.; Wagner, Tyler; Tracy, B.H.

    2016-01-01

    The southeastern USA is home to one of the richest—and most imperiled and threatened—freshwater fish assemblages in North America. For many of these rare and threatened species, conservation efforts are often limited by a lack of data. Drawing on a unique and extensive data set spanning over 20 years, we modeled occurrence probabilities of 126 stream fish species sampled throughout North Carolina, many of which occur more broadly in the southeastern USA. Specifically, we developed species-specific occurrence probabilities from hierarchical Bayesian multispecies models that were based on common land use and land cover covariates. We also used index of biotic integrity tolerance classifications as a second level in the model hierarchy; we identify this level as informative for our work, but it is flexible for future model applications. Based on the partial-pooling property of the models, we were able to generate occurrence probabilities for many imperiled and data-poor species in addition to highlighting a considerable amount of occurrence heterogeneity that supports species-specific investigations whenever possible. Our results provide critical species-level information on many threatened and imperiled species as well as information that may assist with re-evaluation of existing management strategies, such as the use of surrogate species. Finally, we highlight the use of a relatively simple hierarchical model that can easily be generalized for similar situations in which conventional models fail to provide reliable estimates for data-poor groups.

  1. A three-dimensional point process model for the spatial distribution of disease occurrence in relation to an exposure source

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grell, Kathrine; Diggle, Peter J; Frederiksen, Kirsten

    2015-01-01

    We study methods for how to include the spatial distribution of tumours when investigating the relation between brain tumours and the exposure from radio frequency electromagnetic fields caused by mobile phone use. Our suggested point process model is adapted from studies investigating spatial...... the Interphone Study, a large multinational case-control study on the association between brain tumours and mobile phone use....

  2. Maintenance of sex-related genes and the co-occurrence of both mating types in Verticillium dahliae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dylan P G Short

    Full Text Available Verticillium dahliae is a cosmopolitan, soilborne fungus that causes a significant wilt disease on a wide variety of plant hosts including economically important crops, ornamentals, and timber species. Clonal expansion through asexual reproduction plays a vital role in recurring plant epidemics caused by this pathogen. The recent discovery of recombination between clonal lineages and preliminary investigations of the meiotic gene inventory of V. dahliae suggest that cryptic sex appears to be rare in this species. Here we expanded on previous findings on the sexual nature of V. dahliae. Only 1% of isolates in a global collection of 1120 phytopathogenic V. dahliae isolates contained the MAT1-1 idiomorph, whereas 99% contained MAT1-2. Nine unique multilocus microsatellite types comprised isolates of both mating types, eight of which were collected from the same substrate at the same time. Orthologs of 88 previously characterized sex-related genes from fungal model systems in the Ascoymycota were identified in the genome of V. dahliae, out of 93 genes investigated. Results of RT-PCR experiments using both mating types revealed that 10 arbitrarily chosen sex-related genes, including MAT1-1-1 and MAT1-2-1, were constitutively expressed in V. dahliae cultures grown under laboratory conditions. Ratios of non-synonymous (amino-acid altering to synonymous (silent substitutions in V. dahliae MAT1-1-1 and MAT1-2-1 sequences were indistinguishable from the ratios observed in the MAT genes of sexual fungi in the Pezizomycotina. Patterns consistent with strong purifying selection were also observed in 18 other arbitrarily chosen V. dahliae sex-related genes, relative to the patterns in orthologs from fungi with known sexual stages. This study builds upon recent findings from other laboratories and mounts further evidence for an ancestral or cryptic sexual stage in V. dahliae.

  3. Monte Carlo methods to calculate impact probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rickman, H.; Wiśniowski, T.; Wajer, P.; Gabryszewski, R.; Valsecchi, G. B.

    2014-09-01

    infinity, while the Hill sphere method results in a severely underestimated probability. We provide a discussion of the reasons for these differences, and we finally present the results of the MOID method in the form of probability maps for the Earth and Mars on their current orbits. These maps show a relatively flat probability distribution, except for the occurrence of two ridges found at small inclinations and for coinciding projectile/target perihelion distances. Conclusions: Our results verify the standard formulae in the general case, away from the singularities. In fact, severe shortcomings are limited to the immediate vicinity of those extreme orbits. On the other hand, the new Monte Carlo methods can be used without excessive consumption of computer time, and the MOID method avoids the problems associated with the other methods. Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  4. On Probability Leakage

    OpenAIRE

    Briggs, William M.

    2012-01-01

    The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.

  5. Uptake of calcium-45 by apple trees at different levels of moisture in relation to the occurrence of bitter pit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanekom, A.N.; Deist, J.; Blommaert, K.L.J.

    1975-01-01

    Uptake and translocation of recently absorbed Ca ( 45 Ca) and total calcium by Golden Delicious apple trees grown in sand culture at different moisture levels were investigated in relation to bitter pit. Growth and development of the trees were significantly retarded by low moisture supply. Moisture stress not only lowered calcium uptake and/or translocation but also significantly decreased the concentration of recently absorbed calcium in the different parts of the tree. Except for the leaves where moisture stress significantly decreased the total calcium concentration, it did not affect the concentration in other parts of the tree. Although the fruit contributed only 5,8% to the total calcium content of the top parts of the tree, this amount of Ca realised a sufficiently high calcium concentration in the fruit to prevent bitter pit. There was no correlation within the experimental period between moisture supply to the trees and the calcium concentration in the fruit or the incidence of bitter pit [af

  6. Occurrences of the toxic dinoflagellate Ostreopsis ovata in relation with environmental factors in Kerkennah Island (Southern coast of Tunisia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mounir Ben brahim

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To study the seasonal and monthly variability of the toxic dinoflagellate Ostreopsis ovata (O. ovata in relation to environmental parameters in Kerkennah Island. Methods: Three water samples replicate of one-litter were taken daily for ten consecutive days on 12 months. All sampling water was kept in the dark at ambient temperature until their microscopic observation. Environmental variables such as salinity and temperature were measured in the field concomitantly as phytoplankton sampling. Nutrients (ammonium, nitrite, nitrate, phosphate and silicate were analysed in laboratory with Auto-analyser Luebbe type. Cell identification and enumeration in water samples were performed with an inverted microscope after the sedimentation. Results: The highest abundance of O. ovata was recorded in summer. Analysis of variance showed significant difference of abundance between seasons, whereas no significant difference for month was detected. Factorial analysis ordination showed a positive correlation of Ostreopsis mainly with temperature and low correlation with nitrite and nitrate whereas the second axis (with 26.30% of variance showed that Ostreopsis was correlated with temperature and salinity. Conclusions: The maximum abundance of Ostreopsis was reached in summer when temperature was high and a low relationship between O. ovata and nutrient was detected.

  7. Stromal laminin chain distribution in normal, hyperplastic and malignant oral mucosa: relation to myofibroblast occurrence and vessel formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franz, Marcus; Wolheim, Anke; Richter, Petra; Umbreit, Claudia; Dahse, Regine; Driemel, Oliver; Hyckel, Peter; Virtanen, Ismo; Kosmehl, Hartwig; Berndt, Alexander

    2010-04-01

    The contribution of stromal laminin chain expression to malignant potential, tumour stroma reorganization and vessel formation in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is not fully understood. Therefore, the expression of the laminin chains alpha2, alpha3, alpha4, alpha5 and gamma2 in the stromal compartment/vascular structures in OSCC was analysed. Frozen tissue of OSCC (9x G1, 24x G2, 8x G3) and normal (2x)/hyperplastic (11x) oral mucosa was subjected to laminin chain and alpha-smooth muscle actin (ASMA) immunohistochemistry. Results were correlated to tumour grade. The relation of laminin chain positive vessels to total vessel number was assessed by immunofluorescence double labelling with CD31. Stromal laminin alpha2 chain significantly decreases and alpha3, alpha4, alpha5 and gamma2 chains and also ASMA significantly increase with rising grade. The amount of stromal alpha3, alpha4 and gamma2 chains significantly increased with rising ASMA positivity. There is a significant decrease in alpha3 chain positive vessels with neoplastic transformation. Mediated by myofibroblasts, OSCC development is associated with a stromal up-regulation of laminin isoforms possibly contributing to a migration promoting microenvironment. A vascular basement membrane reorganization concerning alpha3 and gamma2 chain laminins during tumour angioneogenesis is suggested.

  8. Occurrence of Can-SINEs and intron sequence evolution supports robust phylogeny of pinniped carnivores and their terrestrial relatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröder, Christiane; Bleidorn, Christoph; Hartmann, Stefanie; Tiedemann, Ralph

    2009-12-15

    Investigating the dog genome we found 178965 introns with a moderate length of 200-1000 bp. A screening of these sequences against 23 different repeat libraries to find insertions of short interspersed elements (SINEs) detected 45276 SINEs. Virtually all of these SINEs (98%) belong to the tRNA-derived Can-SINE family. Can-SINEs arose about 55 million years ago before Carnivora split into two basal groups, the Caniformia (dog-like carnivores) and the Feliformia (cat-like carnivores). Genome comparisons of dog and cat recovered 506 putatively informative SINE loci for caniformian phylogeny. In this study we show how to use such genome information of model organisms to research the phylogeny of related non-model species of interest. Investigating a dataset including representatives of all major caniformian lineages, we analysed 24 randomly chosen loci for 22 taxa. All loci were amplifiable and revealed 17 parsimony-informative SINE insertions. The screening for informative SINE insertions yields a large amount of sequence information, in particular of introns, which contain reliable phylogenetic information as well. A phylogenetic analysis of intron- and SINE sequence data provided a statistically robust phylogeny which is congruent with the absence/presence pattern of our SINE markers. This phylogeny strongly supports a sistergroup relationship of Musteloidea and Pinnipedia. Within Pinnipedia, we see strong support from bootstrapping and the presence of a SINE insertion for a sistergroup relationship of the walrus with the Otariidae.

  9. Assessing the co-occurrence of intimate partner violence domains across the life-course: relating typologies to mental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, Cherie; Sleath, Emma

    2014-01-01

    The inter-generational transmission of violence (ITV) hypothesis and polyvictimisation have been studied extensively. The extant evidence suggests that individuals from violent families are at increased risk of subsequent intimate partner violence (IPV) and that a proportion of individuals experience victimisation across multiple rather than single IPV domains. Both ITV and polyvictimisation are shown to increase the risk of psychiatric morbidity, alcohol use, and anger expression. The current study aimed to 1) ascertain if underlying typologies of victimisation across the life-course and over multiple victimisation domains were present and 2) ascertain if groupings differed on mean scores of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, alcohol use, and anger expression. University students (N=318) were queried in relation to victimisation experiences and psychological well-being. Responses across multiple domains of IPV spanning the life-course were used in a latent profile analysis. ANOVA was subsequently used to determine if profiles differed in their mean scores on PTSD, depression, alcohol use, and anger expression. Three distinct profiles were identified; one of which comprised individuals who experienced "life-course polyvictimisation," another showing individuals who experienced "witnessing parental victimisation," and one which experienced "psychological victimisation only." Life-course polyvictims scored the highest across most assessed measures. Witnessing severe physical aggression and injury in parental relationships as a child has an interesting impact on the ITV into adolescence and adulthood. Life-course polyvictims are shown to experience increased levels of psychiatric morbidity and issues with alcohol misuse and anger expression.

  10. Paradoxes in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Eckhardt, William

    2013-01-01

    Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory.  Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies.  Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.

  11. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  12. Role of physical activity in the occurrence of falls and fall-related injuries in community-dwelling adults over 50 years old.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Catarina L N; Baptista, Fátima; Infante, Paulo

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the effect of the type, level and amount of physical activity in falls and fall-related injuries. Participants were 506 community-dwelling adults aged >50 years (390 women: 67.7 ± 6.8 years and 116 men: 69.6 ± 6.6 years). Falls, fall-related injuries (slight and severe), and physical activity (type, level and energy expenditure) were evaluated by questionnaires. Confounders included co-morbidities, fear of falling, environmental hazards and physical fitness. After adjustment for confounders, logistic analysis revealed that the likelihood of falling decreased by 2% for each 100 metabolic expenditure (MET-min/week) of total physical activity and increased by 5% for each 100 MET-min/week of vigorous-intensity physical activity; total physical activity >1125 MET-min/week and vigorous physical activity physical activity level, increased physical activity levels diminished the likelihood of the occurrence of severe fall-related injuries by 76% (moderate) and 58% (high; p active, especially sufficiently active, reduces fall-related injuries by decreasing falls and by safeguarding against severe injuries when falls occur. At least 1125 MET-min/week of total physical activity including >500 MET-min/week of vigorous intensity seems to prevent falls and, therefore, fall-related injuries.

  13. Assessing the co-occurrence of intimate partner violence domains across the life-course: relating typologies to mental health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, Cherie; Sleath, Emma

    2014-01-01

    Background The inter-generational transmission of violence (ITV) hypothesis and polyvictimisation have been studied extensively. The extant evidence suggests that individuals from violent families are at increased risk of subsequent intimate partner violence (IPV) and that a proportion of individuals experience victimisation across multiple rather than single IPV domains. Both ITV and polyvictimisation are shown to increase the risk of psychiatric morbidity, alcohol use, and anger expression. Objective The current study aimed to 1) ascertain if underlying typologies of victimisation across the life-course and over multiple victimisation domains were present and 2) ascertain if groupings differed on mean scores of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, alcohol use, and anger expression. Method University students (N=318) were queried in relation to victimisation experiences and psychological well-being. Responses across multiple domains of IPV spanning the life-course were used in a latent profile analysis. ANOVA was subsequently used to determine if profiles differed in their mean scores on PTSD, depression, alcohol use, and anger expression. Results Three distinct profiles were identified; one of which comprised individuals who experienced “life-course polyvictimisation,” another showing individuals who experienced “witnessing parental victimisation,” and one which experienced “psychological victimisation only.” Life-course polyvictims scored the highest across most assessed measures. Conclusion Witnessing severe physical aggression and injury in parental relationships as a child has an interesting impact on the ITV into adolescence and adulthood. Life-course polyvictims are shown to experience increased levels of psychiatric morbidity and issues with alcohol misuse and anger expression. PMID:25279106

  14. Relations between the occurrence of hypermobility and gender in the group of children aged 6 - 10 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanna Maryczkanicz

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction:Hypermobility of joints in healthy people may be either acquired or congenital be a symptom of a connective tissue disorder such as Marfan syndrome, osteogenesis imperfecta, or Ehler-Danlos syndrome. If that occurs increased joint mobility does not have the characteristics previously mentioned teams innate, it may indicate the presence of articular hypermobility. Hypermobility otherwise called excessive joint laxity or increased their chattel. This dysfunction is based on a wider range of movement in large and small joints relative to the standards for age, gender and race, in the absence of rheumatic diseases. The aim of the study was to evaluate the relationship between hypermobility and gender of the children aged 6 - 10 years. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted in November and December 2017, in two primary schools in Szczecin. Studied 66 children, whose average age was 7 years and 10 months. To assess the prevalence of hypermobility used Beighton scale. It consists of preparation of 5 steps: slope forward from the position the hand flat on the floor, the passive hyperextension V above the finger 90, the passive thumb adduction to the volar side of the forearm hyperextension elbow joint and knee joint. The maximum number of points available is a ninth score 4 points or more indicates presence of hypermobility. Results: The results of 4 points or above on a scale Beighton was observed in 24 of 66 children. Boys was 10, and girls 14. Among girls male person with hypermobility accounted for 30.30%, and among female patients with hypermobility was 42.42% . Conclusions: There was an increased incidence of joint mobility of females than males. The need for screening tests in that group of children was also highlighted.

  15. Assessing the co-occurrence of intimate partner violence domains across the life-course: relating typologies to mental health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cherie Armour

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The inter-generational transmission of violence (ITV hypothesis and polyvictimisation have been studied extensively. The extant evidence suggests that individuals from violent families are at increased risk of subsequent intimate partner violence (IPV and that a proportion of individuals experience victimisation across multiple rather than single IPV domains. Both ITV and polyvictimisation are shown to increase the risk of psychiatric morbidity, alcohol use, and anger expression. Objective: The current study aimed to 1 ascertain if underlying typologies of victimisation across the life-course and over multiple victimisation domains were present and 2 ascertain if groupings differed on mean scores of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD, depression, alcohol use, and anger expression. Method: University students (N=318 were queried in relation to victimisation experiences and psychological well-being. Responses across multiple domains of IPV spanning the life-course were used in a latent profile analysis. ANOVA was subsequently used to determine if profiles differed in their mean scores on PTSD, depression, alcohol use, and anger expression. Results: Three distinct profiles were identified; one of which comprised individuals who experienced “life-course polyvictimisation,” another showing individuals who experienced “witnessing parental victimisation,” and one which experienced “psychological victimisation only.” Life-course polyvictims scored the highest across most assessed measures. Conclusion: Witnessing severe physical aggression and injury in parental relationships as a child has an interesting impact on the ITV into adolescence and adulthood. Life-course polyvictims are shown to experience increased levels of psychiatric morbidity and issues with alcohol misuse and anger expression.

  16. Probability 1/e

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  17. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Goldberg, Samuel

    1960-01-01

    Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

  18. Contributions to quantum probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-01-01

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a finite set can occur as the outcome

  19. Contributions to quantum probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-06-25

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a

  20. Incidence Probability of Delayed Health Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Ghani, A.H.; El-Naggar, A.M.; El-Kadi, A.A.

    2000-01-01

    During the first international Conference on the long -term consequences of the Chernobyl disaster in 1995 at Kiev, and also during the 1996 International Conference at Vienna, Summing up the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, the data regarding the delayed health consequences were mainly related to thyroid cancer, hereditary disorders, general morbidity, mortality and psychological disturbances. Contrary to expectations, the incidences of Leukemia and Soft Tissue tumors were similar to the spontaneous incident. The expected delayed effects, however, among the accident survivors, the liquidators and populations resident in contaminated areas would show higher incidence probability to Leukemia. These population groups have been continuously exposed to low level radiation both externally and internally. Application of the new ICRP concept of radiation-induced Detriment, and the Nominal Probability Coefficient for Cancer and hereditary effects for both workers and populations are used as the rationale to calculate the incidence probability of occurrence of delayed health effects of the Chernobyl accidents

  1. Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in children is found to be related to the occurrence of ADHD in siblings and the male gender, but not to birth order, when compared to healthy controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keshavarzi, Zahra; Bajoghli, Hafez; Mohamadi, Mohammad Reza; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith; Brand, Serge

    2014-10-01

    The aim of the present study was to explore the extent to which the prevalence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in childhood is associated with birth order and gender, and the prevalence of ADHD and mental retardation (MR) in siblings, as compared to healthy controls. Methods. Data from 200 children diagnosed with ADHD (mean age: 11.13 years; 10.5% females) were compared to data from 200 healthy controls (mean age: 11.0 years; 27.5% females). The data were related to symptoms of ADHD, birth order, gender, family size, and the occurrence of ADHD and MR in siblings. Compared to controls, the occurrence of ADHD was found to be related to the male gender and to the occurrence of ADHD-related symptoms in siblings (odds ratio: 13.50). Birth order and MR were not associated with the occurrence of ADHD and ADHD-related symptoms. ADHD- related symptoms increased if a further sibling also suffered from ADHD. Conclusions. Among a sample of Iranian children suffering from ADHD, the ADHD and ADHD-related symptoms in childhood were found to be related to the male gender and to the occurrence of ADHD in siblings. Moreover, birth order was found to be unrelated. The fact that symptoms of ADHD-related symptoms increased if a further sibling was suffering from ADHD, and decreased if a further sibling was suffering from MR, is intriguing and needs further explanation.

  2. Three-phase shots and monopolar reclose in the core network of 400 kV of the Area de Control Occidental of CFE and Its normal probability of occurrence; Disparos trifasicos y de recierre monopolar en la red troncal de 400 kV del area de control occidental, CFE, y su probabilidad normal de ocurrencia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narvaez Perez, Camilo; Garcia Conejo, Dante Aristoteles [Comision Federal de Electricidad, Centro Nacional de Control de Energia, Area de Control Occidental, Zapopan, Jalisco (Mexico)]. E-mail: camilo.narvaez@cfe.gob.mx; camilo.narvaez@univa.mx; Ramirez Peredo, Patricia [Universidad de Guadalajara, Guadalajara, Jalisco (Mexico)]. E-mail: patyrape@hotmail.com; Blanco Gomez, Cesar Eduardo [Comision Federal de Electricidad, Centro Nacional de Control de Energia, Area de Control Occidental, Zapopan, Jalisco (Mexico)

    2013-03-15

    The growing power demand of users, who make loads of power systems, causes the components of such systems operating near its operating limits. And the transmission line, being the most common component in these, requires a thorough analysis in regard to the probability of three-phase shots and monopolars reclosing, considering thunderstorms, the demand system time, the flows circulating in lines, maintenance on other lines and other imponderantes. This research analyzes the normal probability of occurrence of shots in the 400 kV core network of the Area de Control Occidental, CFE and its impact on studies conducted prior to the maintenance. We intend to use the methodology in the Comision Federal de Electricidad and results can be validated with data from previous years, based on a pseudo shots forecast in a given period. [Spanish] La creciente demanda de energia electrica de los usuarios que componen las cargas de los sistemas electricos de potencia, provoca que los componentes de dichos sistemas funcionen cerca de sus limites operativos. Y la linea de transmision, al ser el componente mas comun en estos, requiere de un analisis minucioso en lo que respecta a la probabilidad de disparos trifasicos y recierres monopolares, considerando tormentas electricas, la demanda horaria del sistema, los flujos que circulan en las lineas, los mantenimientos en las demas lineas y demas imponderantes. En esta investigacion se analiza la probabilidad normal de ocurrencia de disparos en la red troncal de 400 kV del Area de Control Occidental y su impacto en los estudios que se realizan previos a los mantenimientos. Se pretende utilizar la metodologia en la Comision Federal de Electricidad, y los resultados pueden ser validados con datos de los anos anteriores, ya que se hace un pseudo pronostico de disparos en un periodo dado.

  3. Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassinelli, G.

    1979-01-01

    The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)

  4. HIV-related risk behaviours and the correlates among rickshaw pullers of Kamrangirchar, Dhaka, Bangladesh: a cross-sectional study using probability sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ravari Shahrzad

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background National HIV serological and behavioural surveillance of Bangladesh repeatedly demonstrated a very high proportion of rickshaw pullers in Dhaka city, having sex with female sex workers (FSWs and using illicit substances. However, no study has been conducted to identify the correlates of having sex with FSWs among this population. This study aimed to describe behavioural profile of rickshaw pullers in Dhaka city using probability samples and to identify the correlates for having sex with FSWs in order to focus HIV prevention intervention. Methods Six hundred rickshaw pullers were randomly selected from rickshaw garages in the Kamrangirchar area, the single largest slum cluster of Dhaka, Bangladesh, during March–April 2008 using the Proportion Probability to Size method. Participants were interviewed, with a response rate of 99.2% (n = 595, using a structured questionnaire and asked about illicit substance use, sexual behaviour and risk perception for HIV and sexually transmitted diseases. Independent predictors of having sex with FSWs were analysed by multivariate analysis. A qualitative study was subsequently conducted with 30 rickshaw pullers to supplement the findings of the initial survey. Results The proportion of survey respondents who had sex with FSWs and those who used illicit substances in the previous 12 months period were 7.9% and 24.9%, respectively, much lower than the results achieved in the 2003–04 behavioural surveillance (72.8% and 89.9%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed the characteristics of younger age, being never married, living alone with family remaining in other districts and using illicit substances in the previous 12 months were significantly associated with having sex with FSWs. Conclusion HIV-related risk behaviour of our study population of the rickshaw pullers was lower than what has been suggested by the results of behavioural surveillance. While this discrepancy should be

  5. Analysis of the chronic lower limb injuries occurrence in step aerobic instructors in relation to their working step class profile: a three year longitudinal prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malliou, P; Rokka, S; Beneka, A; Gioftsidou, A; Mavromoustakos, S; Godolias, G

    2014-01-01

    There is limited information on injury patterns in Step Aerobic Instructors (SAI) who exclusively execute "step" aerobic classes. To record the type and the anatomical position in relation to diagnosis of muscular skeletal injuries in step aerobic instructors. Also, to analyse the days of absence due to chronic injury in relation to weekly working hours, height of the step platform, working experience and working surface and footwear during the step class. The Step Aerobic Instructors Injuries Questionnaire was developed, and then validity and reliability indices were calculated. 63 SAI completed the questionnaire. For the statistical analysis of the data, the method used was the analysis of frequencies, the non-parametric test χ^{2} (chi square distribution), correlation and linear and logistic regressions analysis from the SPSS statistical package. 63 SAI reported 115 injuries that required more than 2 days absence from step aerobic classes. The chronic lower extremity injuries were 73.5%, with the leg pain, the anterior knee pain, the plantar tendinopathy and the Achilles tendinopathy being most common overuse syndromes. The working hours, the platform height, the years of aerobic dance seem to affect the days of absence due to chronic lower limb injury occurrence in SAI.

  6. Health-related quality of life and occurrence of intestinal side effects after pelvic radiotherapy - evaluation of long-term effects of diagnosis and treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bye, A.; Trope, C.; Loge, J.H.; Hjermstad, M.; Kaasa, S.

    2000-01-01

    Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and occurrence of late intestinal side effects were assessed 3-4 years after pelvic radiotherapy for carcinoma of the endometrium and cervix. During 1988-1990, 143 women were included in a clinical trial to evaluate the effect of a low fat, low lactose diet on radiation-induced diarrhoea. Of 94 survivors, 79 (84%) answered the request. HRQOL was assessed by the EORTC QLQ-C36 and compared with population-based norms. The women scored lower than the general population on role functioning (81.5 versus 90.6 (p < 0.01)) and higher on diarrhoea (23.8 versus 9.5 (p < 0.01)). Compared with pre-treatment conditions, an increase in cases with pain in the lower back, hips and thighs was seen. Substantial pain and diarrhoea were associated with deterioration in HRQOL. In conclusion, few treatment and/or disease-related effects were detected 3-4 years after radiotherapy, with the exception of increased bowel frequency and pain in the lower back, hips and thighs

  7. Linear positivity and virtual probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartle, James B.

    2004-01-01

    We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics

  8. Uncertainty about probability: a decision analysis perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    The issue of how to think about uncertainty about probability is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the medium as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, they find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group

  9. Impact of the occurrence of a response shift on the determination of the minimal important difference in a health-related quality of life score over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ousmen, Ahmad; Conroy, Thierry; Guillemin, Francis; Velten, Michel; Jolly, Damien; Mercier, Mariette; Causeret, Sylvain; Cuisenier, Jean; Graesslin, Olivier; Hamidou, Zeinab; Bonnetain, Franck; Anota, Amélie

    2016-12-03

    An important challenge of the longitudinal analysis of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is the potential occurrence of a Response Shift (RS) effect. While the impact of RS effect on the longitudinal analysis of HRQOL has already been studied, few studies have been conducted on its impact on the determination of the Minimal Important Difference (MID). This study aims to investigate the impact of the RS effect on the determination of the MID over time for each scale of both EORTC QLQ-C30 and QLQ-BR23 questionnaires in breast cancer patients. Patients with breast cancer completed the EORTC QLQ-C30 and the EORTC QLQ-BR23 questionnaires at baseline (time of diagnosis; T0), three months (T1) and six months after surgery (T2). Four hospitals and care centers participated in this study: cancer centers of Dijon and Nancy, the university hospitals of Reims and Strasbourg At T1 and T2, patients were asked to evaluate their HRQOL change during the last 3 months using the Jaeschke transition question. They were also asked to assess retrospectively their HRQOL level of three months ago. The occurrence of the RS effect was explored using the then-test method and its impact on the determination of the MID by using the Anchor-based method. Between February 2006 and February 2008, 381 patients were included of mean age 58 years old (SD = 11). For patients who reported a deterioration of their HRQOL level at each follow-up, an increase of RS effect has been detected between T1 and T2 in 13/15 dimensions of QLQ-C30 questionnaire, and 4/7 dimensions of QLQ-BR23 questionnaire. In contrast, a decrease of the RS effect was observed in 8/15 dimensions of QLQ-C30 questionnaire and in 5/7 dimensions of QLQ-BR23 questionnaire in case of improvement. At T2, the MID became ≥ 5 points when taking into account the RS effect in 10/15 dimensions of QLQ-C30 questionnaire and in 5/7 dimensions of QLQ-BR23 questionnaire. This study highlights that the RS effect increases over time in

  10. Relations that affect the probability and prediction of nitrate concentration in private wells in the glacial aquifer system in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, Kelly L.; Arnold, Terri L.

    2010-01-01

    Nitrate in private wells in the glacial aquifer system is a concern for an estimated 17 million people using private wells because of the proximity of many private wells to nitrogen sources. Yet, less than 5 percent of private wells sampled in this study contained nitrate in concentrations that exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 10 mg/L (milligrams per liter) as N (nitrogen). However, this small group with nitrate concentrations above the USEPA MCL includes some of the highest nitrate concentrations detected in groundwater from private wells (77 mg/L). Median nitrate concentration measured in groundwater from private wells in the glacial aquifer system (0.11 mg/L as N) is lower than that in water from other unconsolidated aquifers and is not strongly related to surface sources of nitrate. Background concentration of nitrate is less than 1 mg/L as N. Although overall nitrate concentration in private wells was low relative to the MCL, concentrations were highly variable over short distances and at various depths below land surface. Groundwater from wells in the glacial aquifer system at all depths was a mixture of old and young water. Oxidation and reduction potential changes with depth and groundwater age were important influences on nitrate concentrations in private wells. A series of 10 logistic regression models was developed to estimate the probability of nitrate concentration above various thresholds. The threshold concentration (1 to 10 mg/L) affected the number of variables in the model. Fewer explanatory variables are needed to predict nitrate at higher threshold concentrations. The variables that were identified as significant predictors for nitrate concentration above 4 mg/L as N included well characteristics such as open-interval diameter, open-interval length, and depth to top of open interval. Environmental variables in the models were mean percent silt in soil, soil type, and mean depth to

  11. Interpretations of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2009-01-01

    This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

  12. Occurrence and mineral chemistry of chromite and related silicates from the Hongshishan mafic-ultramafic complex, NW China with petrogenetic implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Banxiao; Yu, Yingmin; Lv, Xinbiao; Feng, Jing; Wei, Wei; Wu, Chunming; Wang, Heng

    2017-10-01

    The Hongshishan mafic-ultramafic complex is located in the western Beishan Terrane, NW China, and hosts an economic Ni-Cu deposit. Chromite as accessory mineral from the complex is divided into three types based on its occurrence and morphology. Quantitative electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) have been conducted on the different types of chromites. Type 1 chromite occurs as inclusions within silicate minerals and has relatively homogeneous composition. Type 2 chromite occurs among serpentine, as interstitial phase. Type 3 chromite is zoned and exhibits a sudden change in compositions from core to rim. Type 1 chromite occurs in olivine gabbro and troctolite showing homogeneous composition. This chromite is more likely primary. Interstitial type 2 and zoned type 3 chromite has compositional variation from core to rim and is more likely modified. Abundant inclusions of orthopyroxene, phlogopite and hornblende occur within type 2 and type 3 chromites. The parental melt of type 1 chromite has an estimated composition of 14.5 wt% MgO, 12.3 wt% Al2O3 and 1.9 wt% TiO2 and is characterized by high temperature, picritic affinity, hydrous nature and high Mg and Ti contents. Compositions of chromite and clinopyroxene are distinct from those of Alaskan-type complexes and imply that the subduction-related environment is not reasonable. Post orogenic extension and the early Permian mantle plume are responsible for the emplacement of mafic-ultramafic complexes in the Beishan Terrane. The cores of zoned chromites are classified as ferrous chromite and the rims as ferrian chromite. The formation of ferrian rim involves reaction of ferrous chromite, forsterite and magnetite to produce ferrian chromite and chlorite, or alternaively, the rim can be simply envisioned as the result of external addition of magnetite in solution to the already formed ferrous chromite.

  13. Default probabilities and default correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans

    2001-01-01

    Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...

  14. Occurrence reporting and processing of operations information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-07-21

    DOE O 232.1A, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information, and 10 CFR 830.350, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information (when it becomes effective), along with this manual, set forth occurrence reporting requirements for Department of Energy (DOE) Departmental Elements and contractors responsible for the management and operation of DOE-owned and -leased facilities. These requirements include categorization of occurrences related to safety, security, environment, health, or operations (``Reportable Occurrences``); DOE notification of these occurrences; and the development and submission of documented follow-up reports. This Manual provides detailed information for categorizing and reporting occurrences at DOE facilities. Information gathered by the Occurrence Reporting and processing System is used for analysis of the Department`s performance in environmental protection, safeguards and security, and safety and health of its workers and the public. This information is also used to develop lessons learned and document events that significantly impact DOE operations.

  15. Occurrence reporting and processing of operations information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    DOE O 232.1A, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information, and 10 CFR 830.350, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information (when it becomes effective), along with this manual, set forth occurrence reporting requirements for Department of Energy (DOE) Departmental Elements and contractors responsible for the management and operation of DOE-owned and -leased facilities. These requirements include categorization of occurrences related to safety, security, environment, health, or operations (''Reportable Occurrences''); DOE notification of these occurrences; and the development and submission of documented follow-up reports. This Manual provides detailed information for categorizing and reporting occurrences at DOE facilities. Information gathered by the Occurrence Reporting and processing System is used for analysis of the Department's performance in environmental protection, safeguards and security, and safety and health of its workers and the public. This information is also used to develop lessons learned and document events that significantly impact DOE operations

  16. Large Quantum Probability Backflow and the Azimuthal Angle-Angular Momentum Uncertainty Relation for an Electron in a Constant Magnetic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strange, P.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we demonstrate a surprising aspect of quantum mechanics that is accessible to an undergraduate student. We discuss probability backflow for an electron in a constant magnetic field. It is shown that even for a wavepacket composed entirely of states with negative angular momentum the effective angular momentum can take on positive…

  17. A erosividade das chuvas em Fortaleza (CE: I - distribuição, probabilidade de ocorrência e período de retorno - 1ª aproximação Rainfall erosivity in Fortaleza, Ceará State, Brazil: I - distribution, probability of occurrence and return period - 1st approximation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Dias

    2003-04-01

    Loss Equation to predict erosion losses and for conservation planning requires an evaluation of index values of local rainfall erosivity. As a contribution to knowledge on these indexes in the coastal zone of Ceará State, the objectives of this study were: (a to determine the R factor and the annual EI30 index values, its monthly distribution, probability of occurrence and return periods in Fortaleza, Ceará State, Brazil for the period of 1962 to 1981, and (b to create a data bank that allows, by a subsequent analysis, the assessment of correlation between the EI30 index and monthly rainfall amounts in order to simplify the index calculation and to update its values for the years 1982 to 2000. Total rainfall kinetic energy, uniform intensities, maximum 30 minutes intensity and the EI30 index for individual rainstorms were determined on 7,300 daily rain gauge charts from 1962 to 1981, available at the Meteorological Station of the Federal University of Ceará, in Fortaleza. The distribution frequency for the maximum individual and annual EI30 values and their return periods were calculated and plotted on curves of occurrence probability of these values. Over the 20 years period, the R factor found in Fortaleza was 6,774 in a range from 2,237 to 12,881 MJ mm (ha h y-1 and this average annual value is expected to occur, or to be exceeded, at least once in 2.2 years with an occurrence probability of 46 %. Maximum individual EI30 values estimated for return periods of 2, 5, 20, 50 and 100 years were 1,363, 2,415, 3,783, 5,950 and 8,000 MJ mm (ha h-1, respectively. Distribution of the local erosivity showed that 97 % of the annual EI30 occurs in the first semester of the year. Highest soil and water losses are to be expected during the months of February to May, since 70 % of the annual erosivity index value occurs in this quarter of the year, when conventional tillage is used for seedbed preparation and the canopy is incipient.

  18. Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag

    2018-03-01

    Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.

  19. Life time forecasting method upon occurrence of stress corrosion cracking of structure and test device therefor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anzai, Hideya; Kida, Toshitaka; Urayama, Yoshinao; Kikuchi, Eiji; Shimanuki, Sei; Kuniya, Jiro; Nakata, Kiyotomo; Izumitani, Masakiyo; Hattori, Shigeo.

    1993-01-01

    A load stress is applied to a metal piece made of a material identical with the constituent material of a structure and having the sensitivity enhanced to a predetermined level, and plurality of such pieces are immersed in a corrosive circumstance in this state. Then, the time from the immersion till the rupture thereof and the number of ruptured pieces of the metal pieces are detected while observing them. The relation with the probability of rupture is plotted on a paper to determine the life time for the occurrence of minimum stress corrosion creacks (SSC) of the metal pieces. Based on the relationship between the previously determined stress and the life time for the occurrence of minimum SSC, the ratio between the life time for the occurrence of minimum SSC relative to estimated stress applied to the structure and the life time for the occurrence of minimum SSC relative to the stress applied to the metal pieces is determined as a first SSC acceleration rate. The ratio between the time of occurrence for minimum SSC and the sensitivity is determined as a second SSC acceleration rate. The first and the second SSC acceleration rates are multiplied to estimate the time for the occurrence of SSC of the structure. Then, the life time for the occurrence of SSC for the equipments and structures can be recognized quantitatively, to prevent ruptures of actual equipments and extend the life time. (N.H.)

  20. On the relation between fluvio-deltaic flood basin geomorphology and the wide-spread occurrence of arsenic pollution in shallow aquifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donselaar, Marinus E; Bhatt, Ajay G; Ghosh, Ashok K

    2017-01-01

    Pollution of groundwater with natural (geogenic) arsenic occurs on an enormous, world-wide scale, and causes wide-spread, serious health risks for an estimated more than hundred million people who depend on the use of shallow aquifers for drinking and irrigation water. A literature review of key studies on arsenic concentration levels yields that Holocene fluvial and deltaic flood basins are the hotspots of arsenic pollution, and that the dominant geomorphological setting of the arsenic-polluted areas consists of shallow-depth meandering-river deposits with sand-prone fluvial point-bar deposits surrounded by clay-filled (clay plug) abandoned meander bends (oxbow lakes). Analysis of the lithofacies distribution and related permeability contrasts of the geomorphological elements in two cored wells in a point bar and adjacent clay plug along the Ganges River, in combination with data of arsenic concentrations and organic matter content reveals that the low-permeable clay-plug deposits have a high organic matter content and the adjacent permeable point-bar sands show high but spatially very variable arsenic concentrations. On the basis of the geomorphological juxtaposition, the analysis of fluvial depositional processes and lithofacies characteristics, inherent permeability distribution and the omnipresence of the two geomorphological elements in Holocene flood basins around the world, a generic model is presented for the wide-spread arsenic occurrence. The anoxic deeper part (hypolimnion) of the oxbow lake, and the clay plugs are identified as the loci of reactive organic carbon and microbial respiration in an anoxic environment that triggers the reductive dissolution of iron oxy-hydroxides and the release of arsenic on the scale of entire fluvial floodplains and deltaic basins. The adjacent permeable point-bar sands are identified as the effective trap for the dissolved arsenic, and the internal permeability heterogeneity is the cause for aquifer compartmentalization

  1. Free probability and random matrices

    CERN Document Server

    Mingo, James A

    2017-01-01

    This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.

  2. Levels of metals in kidney, liver and muscle tissue and their relation to the occurrence of parasites in the red fox in the Lower Silesian Forest in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binkowski, Łukasz J; Merta, Dorota; Przystupińska, Anna; Sołtysiak, Zenon; Pacoń, Jarosław; Stawarz, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Together with the occurrence of parasites, increased concentrations of xenobiotics, to which scavengers are greatly exposed, may significantly influence the physiology of red foxes. It is also suspected that these two factors interact. The accumulation of various metals (Ca, Cd, Cu, Fe, Hg, K, Mg, Ni, Pb, Zn) in kidney, liver and muscle tissue was investigated, as well as the occurrence of parasites, and the potential link to the presence of metals. Generally speaking, neither sex nor age influenced these concentrations. K, Mg and Fe were found in the highest concentrations and Hg was found in the lowest. Various relationships between the concentrations of metals were observed in the tissues. 34% of the specimens studied were hosts to parasites. No clear, significant connection between the concentrations and the occurrence of parasites was noted, but the discernible trend confirmed by the logistic regression, needs further study. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Relation between exercise-induced ventricular arrhythmias and myocardial perfusion abnormalities in patients with intermediate pretest probability of coronary artery disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elhendy, A.; Sozzi, F.B.; Van Domburg, R.T.; Bax, J.J.; Roelandt, J.R.T.C.

    2000-01-01

    We studied 302 patients (mean age 54±9 years, 152 men and 150 women) with intermediate pretest probability of CAD (range=0.25- 0.80, mean=0.43±0.20) by upright bicycle exercise stress test in conjunction with technetium-99m single-photon emission tomography (SPET) imaging. Exercise-induced VAs (frequent or complex premature ventricular contractions or ventricular tachycardia) occurred in 65 patients (22%). No significant difference was found between patients with and patient without VAs regarding the pretest probability of CAD (0.45±0.21 vs 0.43±0.20). Patients with exercise-induced VAs had a higher prevalence of perfusion abnormalities (52% vs 26%, P=0.002) and ischaemic electrocardiographic changes (31% vs 16%, P<0.05) compared to patients without VAs. A higher prevalence of perfusion abnormalities in patients with VAs was observed in both men (67% vs 35%, P<0.01) and women (38% vs 16%, P<0.05). However, the positive predictive value of exercise-induced VAs for the presence of myocardial perfusion abnormalities was higher in men than in women (67% vs 38%, P<0.05). The presence of abnormal myocardial perfusion was the only independent predictor of exercise-induced VAs (OR 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4.2) by multivariate analysis of clinical and stress test variables. It is concluded that in patients with intermediate pretest probability of CAD, exercise-induced VAs are predictive of a higher prevalence of myocardial perfusion abnormalities in both men and women. However, the positive predictive value of exercise-induced VAs for perfusion abnormalities is higher in men. Because of the underestimation of ischaemia by electrocardiographic changes, exercise-induced VAs should be interpreted as a marker of a higher probability of CAD. (orig./MG) (orig.)

  4. The quantum probability calculus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jauch, J.M.

    1976-01-01

    The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)

  5. Probability of satellite collision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccarter, J. W.

    1972-01-01

    A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

  6. Handbook of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Florescu, Ionut

    2013-01-01

    THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

  7. Real analysis and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

    1972-01-01

    Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

  8. Spatio-temporal segregation and size distribution of fish assemblages as related to non-native species occurrence in the middle rio Doce Valley, MG, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique Corrêa Giacomini

    Full Text Available The lakes in the middle rio Doce Valley (MG are suffering impacts due to the introduction of invasive fish species, mainly piscivorous species like red piranha Pygocentrus nattereri and peacock bass Cichla kelberi. Fishes were collected in bimonthly samples conducted at ten lakes along a year. The present study showed that the composition of native fish assemblages is significantly related to the presence and type of non-native species. Fish species distribution among lakes can be explained by differences in species body size: smaller native species are less concentrated in lakes with invasive piscivores, which is in accordance with the hypothesis that they have greater susceptibility to predation by invaders. Another probable cause for this correlation is the proximity of lakes to the drainage system, which could explain both the non-native incidence and the turnover of native species composition. Furthermore, temporal variability in species composition was significantly higher in invaded lakes. This last factor may be linked to seasonal flood pulses, which carry immigrant fishes from streams in the vicinity. The metacommunity framework can bring insights for future studies in such spatially structured systems, and the approach should improve our understanding of processes underlying species composition as well as help direct conservation-focused management plans.

  9. Relation between the occurrence of burnout and differential-pressure fluctuation characteristics caused by the disturbance waves passing by a flow obstacle in a vertical boiling two-phase upward flow in a narrow annular channel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mori, Shoji; Fukano, Tohru

    2003-01-01

    If a flow obstacle such as a spacer is set in a boiling two-phase flow within an annular channel, where the inner tube is used as a heater, the temperature on the surface of the heater tube is severely affected by the existence of the spacer. In some case the spacer has a cooling effect, and in the other case it causes the dryout of the cooling liquid film on the heating surface resulting in the burnout of the tube. The burnout mechanism near the spacer, however, is not still clear. In the present paper we focus our attention on the occurrence of the burnout near a spacer, and discuss the occurrence location of dryout and burnout and the relation between the occurrence of burnout and differential-pressure fluctuation characteristics caused by the disturbance waves passing by a spacer. (author)

  10. An novel frequent probability pattern mining algorithm based on circuit simulation method in uncertain biological networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Motif mining has always been a hot research topic in bioinformatics. Most of current research on biological networks focuses on exact motif mining. However, due to the inevitable experimental error and noisy data, biological network data represented as the probability model could better reflect the authenticity and biological significance, therefore, it is more biological meaningful to discover probability motif in uncertain biological networks. One of the key steps in probability motif mining is frequent pattern discovery which is usually based on the possible world model having a relatively high computational complexity. Methods In this paper, we present a novel method for detecting frequent probability patterns based on circuit simulation in the uncertain biological networks. First, the partition based efficient search is applied to the non-tree like subgraph mining where the probability of occurrence in random networks is small. Then, an algorithm of probability isomorphic based on circuit simulation is proposed. The probability isomorphic combines the analysis of circuit topology structure with related physical properties of voltage in order to evaluate the probability isomorphism between probability subgraphs. The circuit simulation based probability isomorphic can avoid using traditional possible world model. Finally, based on the algorithm of probability subgraph isomorphism, two-step hierarchical clustering method is used to cluster subgraphs, and discover frequent probability patterns from the clusters. Results The experiment results on data sets of the Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) networks and the transcriptional regulatory networks of E. coli and S. cerevisiae show that the proposed method can efficiently discover the frequent probability subgraphs. The discovered subgraphs in our study contain all probability motifs reported in the experiments published in other related papers. Conclusions The algorithm of probability graph isomorphism

  11. Association of genetic variants of the incretin-related genes with quantitative traits and occurrence of type 2 diabetes in Japanese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayumi Enya

    2014-01-01

    Conclusion: Rare variants of GIPR may contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes, possibly through insulin secretory defects. Furthermore, the genetic variant of PCSK1 might influence glucose homeostasis by altered insulin resistance independently of BMI, incretin level or proinsulin conversion, and may be associated with the occurrence of type 2 diabetes in Japanese.

  12. Introduction to probability

    CERN Document Server

    Freund, John E

    1993-01-01

    Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

  13. Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varacca, Daniele

    Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...

  14. Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Taiki

    2011-03-01

    A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

  15. Janus-faced probability

    CERN Document Server

    Rocchi, Paolo

    2014-01-01

    The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.

  16. Probability and Measure

    CERN Document Server

    Billingsley, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

  17. The concept of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bitsakis, E.I.; Nicolaides, C.A.

    1989-01-01

    The concept of probability is now, and always has been, central to the debate on the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Furthermore, probability permeates all of science, as well as our every day life. The papers included in this volume, written by leading proponents of the ideas expressed, embrace a broad spectrum of thought and results: mathematical, physical epistemological, and experimental, both specific and general. The contributions are arranged in parts under the following headings: Following Schroedinger's thoughts; Probability and quantum mechanics; Aspects of the arguments on nonlocality; Bell's theorem and EPR correlations; Real or Gedanken experiments and their interpretation; Questions about irreversibility and stochasticity; and Epistemology, interpretation and culture. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs

  18. Occurrence and properties of Petunia peroxidase a

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendriks, T.

    1989-01-01

    Peroxidases are probably the most extensively studied enzymes in higher plants. Various isoenzymes occur as soluble proteins in the apoplast and in the vacuole, or are bound to membranes and cell walls. Their occurrence is often organ-specific and developmentally controlled, and there is

  19. An empirical model of global spread-f occurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singleton, D.G.

    1974-09-01

    A method of combining models of ionospheric F-layer peak electron density and irregularity incremental electron density into a model of the occurrence probability of the frequency spreading component of spread-F is presented. The predictions of the model are compared with spread-F occurrence data obtained under sunspot maximum conditions. Good agreement is obtained for latitudes less than 70 0 geomagnetic. At higher latitudes, the inclusion of a 'blackout factor' in the model allows it to accurately represent the data and, in so doing, resolves an apparent discrepancy in the occurrence statistics at high latitudes. The blackout factor is ascribed to the effect of polar blackout on the spread-F statistics and/or the lack of a definitve incremental electron density model for irregularities at polar latitudes. Ways of isolating these effects and assessing their relative importance in the blackout factor are discussed. The model, besides providing estimates of spread-F occurrence on a worldwide basis, which will be of value in the engineering of HF and VHF communications, also furnishes a means of further checking the irregularity incremental electron density model on which it is based. (author)

  20. Probability for statisticians

    CERN Document Server

    Shorack, Galen R

    2017-01-01

    This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

  1. Concepts of probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Pfeiffer, Paul E

    1979-01-01

    Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.

  2. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  3. Probability and Statistical Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2006-01-01

    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  4. Probabilities in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hartmann, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

  5. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Grimmett, Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

  6. Probability in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hemmo, Meir

    2012-01-01

    What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

  7. Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising

  8. Quantum computing and probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-11-25

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

  9. Quantum computing and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-01-01

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction. (viewpoint)

  10. Secreção na orelha média em lactentes - ocorrência, recorrência e aspectos relacionados Secretion of middle ear in infants - occurrence, recurrence and related factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra de O. Saes

    2005-04-01

    Universidade do Sagrado Coração. METHODS: Newborns and infants were monthly submitted to anamneses, otoscopy, behavioral hearing assessment using sound instruments and pure tones (pediatric audiometry and tympanometry. RESULTS: The results revealed that 68.4% of infants presented one or more episodes of middle ear secretion during their two first years, with more recurrence among males. Peak occurrence was between four and 12 months of age and, the earlier the first episode, the higher the probability of recurrence. Greatest incidence was during May and August. It was found that, of the variables investigated, the period of exclusive breastfeeding actuated as a protector factor. With respect of risk factors, it was observed that passive smoking, gastro-esophageal reflux and respiratory allergy were related with the recurrences of effusion. CONCLUSION: Findings revealed the importance of periodic auditory follow-up for infants during their first two years of life, considered to be the critical period of auditory system maturation, during which sensory deprivation can be responsible for damage to the development of speech, language and other auditory abilities.

  11. Probability model for analyzing fire management alternatives: theory and structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederick W. Bratten

    1982-01-01

    A theoretical probability model has been developed for analyzing program alternatives in fire management. It includes submodels or modules for predicting probabilities of fire behavior, fire occurrence, fire suppression, effects of fire on land resources, and financial effects of fire. Generalized "fire management situations" are used to represent actual fire...

  12. Probability theory a foundational course

    CERN Document Server

    Pakshirajan, R P

    2013-01-01

    This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.

  13. VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.

  14. The perception of probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

    2014-01-01

    We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Unusual occurrence report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The final report provides information on an occurrence which took place in the HEDL Radioactive Liquid Waste System (RLWS), during which radioactive waste water entered the Retention Process Waste System. The RLWS has been cleared of the obstruction and is in full operation. Investigation of the occurrence and testing of the equipment involved is completed

  16. The pleasures of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Isaac, Richard

    1995-01-01

    The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

  17. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  18. A probabilistic model for snow avalanche occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perona, P.; Miescher, A.; Porporato, A.

    2009-04-01

    Avalanche hazard forecasting is an important issue in relation to the protection of urbanized environments, ski resorts and of ski-touring alpinists. A critical point is to predict the conditions that trigger the snow mass instability determining the onset and the size of avalanches. On steep terrains the risk of avalanches is known to be related to preceding consistent snowfall events and to subsequent changes in the local climatic conditions. Regression analysis has shown that avalanche occurrence indeed correlates to the amount of snow fallen in consecutive three snowing days and to the state of the settled snow at the ground. Moreover, since different type of avalanches may occur as a result of the interactions of different factors, the process of snow avalanche formation is inherently complex and with some degree of unpredictability. For this reason, although several models assess the risk of avalanche by accounting for all the involved processes with a great detail, a high margin of uncertainty invariably remains. In this work, we explicitly describe such an unpredictable behaviour with an intrinsic noise affecting the processes leading snow instability. Eventually, this sets the basis for a minimalist stochastic model, which allows us to investigate the avalanche dynamics and its statistical properties. We employ a continuous time process with stochastic jumps (snowfalls), deterministic decay (snowmelt and compaction) and state dependent avalanche occurrence (renewals) as a minimalist model for the determination of avalanche size and related intertime occurrence. The physics leading to avalanches is simplified to the extent where only meteorological data and terrain data are necessary to estimate avalanche danger. We explore the analytical formulation of the process and the properties of the probability density function of the avalanche process variables. We also discuss what is the probabilistic link between avalanche size and preceding snowfall event and

  19. Probability of Failure in Random Vibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1988-01-01

    Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out......-crossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval and thus for the first-passage probability...

  20. Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Melucci, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

  1. Probability and stochastic modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Rotar, Vladimir I

    2012-01-01

    Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...

  2. Collision Probability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1998-01-01

    It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

  3. Estimating Subjective Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

    2014-01-01

    either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments...... that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

  4. Introduction to imprecise probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin

  5. Classic Problems of Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gorroochurn, Prakash

    2012-01-01

    "A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin

  6. Prevalence, Incidence, Prognosis, Early Stroke Risk, and Stroke-Related Prognostic Factors of Definite or Probable Transient Ischemic Attacks in China, 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Jiang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The epidemiological characteristics of transient ischemic attacks (TIAs in China are unclear. In 2013, we conducted a nationally representative, door-to-door epidemiological survey on TIA in China using a complex, multistage, probability sampling design. Results showed that the weighted prevalence of TIA in China was 103.3 [95% confidence interval (CI: 83.9–127.2] per 100,000 in the population, 92.4 (75.0–113.8 per 100,000 among men, and 114.7 (87.2–151.0 per 100,000 among women. The weighted incidence of TIA was 23.9 (17.8–32.0 per 100,000 in the population, 21.3 (14.3–31.5 per 100,000 among men, and 26.6 (17.0–41.7 per 100,000 among women. No difference in average prognosis was found between TIA and stroke in the population. Weighted risk of stroke among TIA patients was 9.7% (6.5–14.3%, 11.1% (7.5–16.1%, and 12.3% (8.4–17.7% at 2, 30, and 90 days, respectively. The risk of stroke was higher among male patients with a history of TIA than among female patients with a history of TIA (OR: 2.469; 95% CI: 1.172–5.201; P = 0.018, and higher among TIA patients with hypertension than among TIA patients without hypertension (OR: 2.671; 1.547–4.613; P < 0.001. It can be concluded that there are an estimated 1.35 million TIA patients nationwide, with 0.31 million new cases of TIA annually in China. TIA patients were not better managed prior to a stroke event. Early risk of stroke among TIA patients is high. Sex and hypertension may be stroke-associated prognostic factors among TIA patients. TIA clinics and surveillance should be integrated into the national health-care system.

  7. Active Longitude and Coronal Mass Ejection Occurrences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gyenge, N.; Kiss, T. S.; Erdélyi, R.; Singh, T.; Srivastava, A. K.

    2017-01-01

    The spatial inhomogeneity of the distribution of coronal mass ejection (CME) occurrences in the solar atmosphere could provide a tool to estimate the longitudinal position of the most probable CME-capable active regions in the Sun. The anomaly in the longitudinal distribution of active regions themselves is often referred to as active longitude (AL). In order to reveal the connection between the AL and CME spatial occurrences, here we investigate the morphological properties of active regions. The first morphological property studied is the separateness parameter, which is able to characterize the probability of the occurrence of an energetic event, such as a solar flare or CME. The second morphological property is the sunspot tilt angle. The tilt angle of sunspot groups allows us to estimate the helicity of active regions. The increased helicity leads to a more complex buildup of the magnetic structure and also can cause CME eruption. We found that the most complex active regions appear near the AL and that the AL itself is associated with the most tilted active regions. Therefore, the number of CME occurrences is higher within the AL. The origin of the fast CMEs is also found to be associated with this region. We concluded that the source of the most probably CME-capable active regions is at the AL. By applying this method, we can potentially forecast a flare and/or CME source several Carrington rotations in advance. This finding also provides new information for solar dynamo modeling.

  8. Active Longitude and Coronal Mass Ejection Occurrences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gyenge, N.; Kiss, T. S.; Erdélyi, R. [Solar Physics and Space Plasmas Research Centre (SP2RC), School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield Hounsfield Road, Hicks Building, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom); Singh, T.; Srivastava, A. K., E-mail: n.g.gyenge@sheffield.ac.uk [Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Technology (Banaras Hindu University), Varanasi (India)

    2017-03-20

    The spatial inhomogeneity of the distribution of coronal mass ejection (CME) occurrences in the solar atmosphere could provide a tool to estimate the longitudinal position of the most probable CME-capable active regions in the Sun. The anomaly in the longitudinal distribution of active regions themselves is often referred to as active longitude (AL). In order to reveal the connection between the AL and CME spatial occurrences, here we investigate the morphological properties of active regions. The first morphological property studied is the separateness parameter, which is able to characterize the probability of the occurrence of an energetic event, such as a solar flare or CME. The second morphological property is the sunspot tilt angle. The tilt angle of sunspot groups allows us to estimate the helicity of active regions. The increased helicity leads to a more complex buildup of the magnetic structure and also can cause CME eruption. We found that the most complex active regions appear near the AL and that the AL itself is associated with the most tilted active regions. Therefore, the number of CME occurrences is higher within the AL. The origin of the fast CMEs is also found to be associated with this region. We concluded that the source of the most probably CME-capable active regions is at the AL. By applying this method, we can potentially forecast a flare and/or CME source several Carrington rotations in advance. This finding also provides new information for solar dynamo modeling.

  9. Active Longitude and Coronal Mass Ejection Occurrences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyenge, N.; Singh, T.; Kiss, T. S.; Srivastava, A. K.; Erdélyi, R.

    2017-03-01

    The spatial inhomogeneity of the distribution of coronal mass ejection (CME) occurrences in the solar atmosphere could provide a tool to estimate the longitudinal position of the most probable CME-capable active regions in the Sun. The anomaly in the longitudinal distribution of active regions themselves is often referred to as active longitude (AL). In order to reveal the connection between the AL and CME spatial occurrences, here we investigate the morphological properties of active regions. The first morphological property studied is the separateness parameter, which is able to characterize the probability of the occurrence of an energetic event, such as a solar flare or CME. The second morphological property is the sunspot tilt angle. The tilt angle of sunspot groups allows us to estimate the helicity of active regions. The increased helicity leads to a more complex buildup of the magnetic structure and also can cause CME eruption. We found that the most complex active regions appear near the AL and that the AL itself is associated with the most tilted active regions. Therefore, the number of CME occurrences is higher within the AL. The origin of the fast CMEs is also found to be associated with this region. We concluded that the source of the most probably CME-capable active regions is at the AL. By applying this method, we can potentially forecast a flare and/or CME source several Carrington rotations in advance. This finding also provides new information for solar dynamo modeling.

  10. Counterexamples in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Stoyanov, Jordan M

    2013-01-01

    While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.

  11. Epistemology and Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Plotnitsky, Arkady

    2010-01-01

    Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general

  12. Transition probabilities for atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Y.K.

    1980-01-01

    Current status of advanced theoretical methods for transition probabilities for atoms and ions is discussed. An experiment on the f values of the resonance transitions of the Kr and Xe isoelectronic sequences is suggested as a test for the theoretical methods

  13. Probability analysis of nuclear power plant hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovacs, Z.

    1985-01-01

    The probability analysis of risk is described used for quantifying the risk of complex technological systems, especially of nuclear power plants. Risk is defined as the product of the probability of the occurrence of a dangerous event and the significance of its consequences. The process of the analysis may be divided into the stage of power plant analysis to the point of release of harmful material into the environment (reliability analysis) and the stage of the analysis of the consequences of this release and the assessment of the risk. The sequence of operations is characterized in the individual stages. The tasks are listed which Czechoslovakia faces in the development of the probability analysis of risk, and the composition is recommended of the work team for coping with the task. (J.C.)

  14. Spatio-temporal segregation and size distribution of fish assemblages as related to non-native species occurrence in the middle rio Doce Valley, MG, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique Corrêa Giacomini

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The lakes in the middle rio Doce Valley (MG are suffering impacts due to the introduction of invasive fish species, mainly piscivorous species like red piranha Pygocentrus nattereri and peacock bass Cichla kelberi. Fishes were collected in bimonthly samples conducted at ten lakes along a year. The present study showed that the composition of native fish assemblages is significantly related to the presence and type of non-native species. Fish species distribution among lakes can be explained by differences in species body size: smaller native species are less concentrated in lakes with invasive piscivores, which is in accordance with the hypothesis that they have greater susceptibility to predation by invaders. Another probable cause for this correlation is the proximity of lakes to the drainage system, which could explain both the non-native incidence and the turnover of native species composition. Furthermore, temporal variability in species composition was significantly higher in invaded lakes. This last factor may be linked to seasonal flood pulses, which carry immigrant fishes from streams in the vicinity. The metacommunity framework can bring insights for future studies in such spatially structured systems, and the approach should improve our understanding of processes underlying species composition as well as help direct conservation-focused management plans.Os lagos do Vale do médio rio Doce (MG têm sofrido impactos devido à introdução de espécies invasoras de peixes, principalmente de espécies piscívoras como a piranha Pygocentrus nattereri e o tucunaré Cichla kelberi. Peixes foram coletados em seis amostragens bimestrais durante um ano. O presente trabalho demonstrou que a composição das assembleias de peixes nativos está significativamente relacionada à presença e ao tipo de espécies não nativas. A distribuição de espécies entre os lagos pode ser explicada por diferenças no tamanho corporal: espécies nativas de

  15. Probability of Boulders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    1997-01-01

    To collect background information for formulating a description of the expected soil properties along the tunnel line, in 1987 Storebælt initiated a statistical investigation of the occurrence and size of boulders in the Great Belt area. The data for the boulder size distribution were obtained....... The data collection part of the investigation was made on the basis of geological expert advice (Gunnar Larsen, Århus) by the Danish Geotechnical Institute (DGI).The statistical data analysis combined with stochastic modeling based on geometry and sound wave diffraction theory gave a point estimate...

  16. Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slunga, R.

    1979-03-01

    A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)

  17. Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

  18. Is type 2 diabetes mellitus in mechanically ventilated adult trauma patients potentially related to the occurrence of ventilator-associated pneumonia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadi Darvishi Khezri

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP is a type of lung infection that typically affects critically ill patients undergoing mechanical ventilation (MV in the intensive care unit (ICU. Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM are considered to be more susceptible to several types of infections including community-acquired pneumonia. However, it is not clear whether T2DM is a risk factor for the development of VAP. The purpose of this study was to determine the risk of VAP for diabetic and nondiabetic mechanically ventilated trauma patients. Materials and Methods: This study is a secondary analysis of a prospective observational study of the history of T2DM in the ICU over a period of 1 year at Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. A total of 186 critically ill trauma patients who required at least 48 h of MV were monitored for the occurrence of VAP by their clinical pulmonary infection score (CPIS until ICU discharge, VAP diagnosis, or death. Results: Forty-one of the 186 patients developed VAP. The median time from hospitalization to VAP was 29.09 days (95% CI: 26.27-31.9. The overall incidence of VAP was 18.82 cases per 1,000 days of intubation (95% CI: 13.86-25.57. Risk of VAP in diabetic patients was greater than nondiabetic patients after adjustments for other potential factors [hazard ratio (HR: 10.12 [95% confidence interval (CI: 5.1-20.2; P < 0.0001]. Conclusion: The findings show that T2DM is associated with a significant increase in the occurrence of VAP in mechanically ventilated adult trauma patients.

  19. Probability of misclassifying biological elements in surface waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loga, Małgorzata; Wierzchołowska-Dziedzic, Anna

    2017-11-24

    Measurement uncertainties are inherent to assessment of biological indices of water bodies. The effect of these uncertainties on the probability of misclassification of ecological status is the subject of this paper. Four Monte-Carlo (M-C) models were applied to simulate the occurrence of random errors in the measurements of metrics corresponding to four biological elements of surface waters: macrophytes, phytoplankton, phytobenthos, and benthic macroinvertebrates. Long series of error-prone measurement values of these metrics, generated by M-C models, were used to identify cases in which values of any of the four biological indices lay outside of the "true" water body class, i.e., outside the class assigned from the actual physical measurements. Fraction of such cases in the M-C generated series was used to estimate the probability of misclassification. The method is particularly useful for estimating the probability of misclassification of the ecological status of surface water bodies in the case of short sequences of measurements of biological indices. The results of the Monte-Carlo simulations show a relatively high sensitivity of this probability to measurement errors of the river macrophyte index (MIR) and high robustness to measurement errors of the benthic macroinvertebrate index (MMI). The proposed method of using Monte-Carlo models to estimate the probability of misclassification has significant potential for assessing the uncertainty of water body status reported to the EC by the EU member countries according to WFD. The method can be readily applied also in risk assessment of water management decisions before adopting the status dependent corrective actions.

  20. A probability space for quantum models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmens, L. F.

    2017-06-01

    A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

  1. Bayesian Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  2. Probability theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Hsu, Elton P

    1999-01-01

    This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.

  3. Model uncertainty and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example

  4. Retrocausality and conditional probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Costa de Beauregard has proposed that physical causality be identified with conditional probability. The proposal is shown to be vulnerable on two accounts. The first, though mathematically trivial, seems to be decisive so far as the current formulation of the proposal is concerned. The second lies in a physical inconsistency which seems to have its source in a Copenhagenlike disavowal of realism in quantum mechanics. 6 refs. (Author)

  5. Probability via expectation

    CERN Document Server

    Whittle, Peter

    1992-01-01

    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  6. Erosividade, padrões hidrológicos, período de retorno e probabilidade de ocorrência das chuvas em São Borja, RS Erosivity, hydrological patterns, return period and probability of occurrence of rainfalls at São Borja, RS, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elemar Antonino Cassol

    2008-06-01

    "R" da USLE, foi obtido de dados pluviométricos, representados pelo coeficiente de chuva, que pode ser utilizado para regiões climáticas semelhantes que apenas dispõem de dados pluviométricos. O valor da erosividade média anual de 9.751 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 ano-1 é esperado pelo menos uma vez a cada 2,2 anos, com uma probabilidade de ocorrência de 44,9 %.The erosivity potential of rainfalls can be estimated by some indexes, among them the EI30, which is given by the product of kinetic energy (E and rainfall intensity for a 30-minute period (I30. The purpose of this study was to determine rainfall erosivity, hydrological patterns, return period and probability of occurrence of erosive rainfalls in São Borja, RS, Brazil, based on diary rainfall charts of the FEPAGRO meteorological station, from 1956 to 2003. The duration and accumulated amount of each erosive rainfall were measured, entered in a spreadsheet, digitalized and processed by CHUVEROS software, which calculated the EI30 index and the monthly and annual total erosivity, besides determining the hydrological pattern of each rainfall. Most of the annual erosivity (76 % was concentrated between October and April, in the period of soil tillage, sowing and growth of summer crops. The most notable peak in the erosive potential was observed between March and April (1,260-1,269 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, when most crops are normally in full growth, while July and August were the months of lowest erosive potential (268-271 MJ mm ha-1 h-1. Of the total erosive rainfalls 47, 25 and 28 % had advanced, intermediary and delayed patterns, respectively, while these patterns corresponded to 50, 26 and 24 %, respectively, of the mean annual volume of erosive rainfalls and to 53, 25 and 22 % of the average annual erosivity. The mean annual index of erosivity in São Borja is 9,751 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 year-1. It represents the "R" Factor of the Universal Soil Loss Equation to be used in São Borja and regions with similar rainfall pattern

  7. Machine learning to predict the occurrence of bisphosphonate-related osteonecrosis of the jaw associated with dental extraction: A preliminary report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dong Wook; Kim, Hwiyoung; Nam, Woong; Kim, Hyung Jun; Cha, In-Ho

    2018-04-23

    The aim of this study was to build and validate five types of machine learning models that can predict the occurrence of BRONJ associated with dental extraction in patients taking bisphosphonates for the management of osteoporosis. A retrospective review of the medical records was conducted to obtain cases and controls for the study. Total 125 patients consisting of 41 cases and 84 controls were selected for the study. Five machine learning prediction algorithms including multivariable logistic regression model, decision tree, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and random forest were implemented. The outputs of these models were compared with each other and also with conventional methods, such as serum CTX level. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to compare the results. The performance of machine learning models was significantly superior to conventional statistical methods and single predictors. The random forest model yielded the best performance (AUC = 0.973), followed by artificial neural network (AUC = 0.915), support vector machine (AUC = 0.882), logistic regression (AUC = 0.844), decision tree (AUC = 0.821), drug holiday alone (AUC = 0.810), and CTX level alone (AUC = 0.630). Machine learning methods showed superior performance in predicting BRONJ associated with dental extraction compared to conventional statistical methods using drug holiday and serum CTX level. Machine learning can thus be applied in a wide range of clinical studies. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  8. Structure and pharmacological actions of phyllocaerulein, a caerulein-like nonapeptide: its occurrence in extracts of the skin of Phyllomedusa sauvagei and related Phyllomedusa species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anastasi, A; Bertaccini, G; Cei, J M; De Caro, G; Erspamer, V; Impicciatore, M

    1969-09-01

    1. The South American amphibian Phyllomedusa sauvagei contains in its skin large amounts of a polypeptide closely resembling caerulein in its pharmacological actions. This polypeptide, called phyllocaerulein, was obtained in a pure form, and upon acid hydrolysis, enzymic digestion and end-group determination experiments it proved to be a nonapeptide of the following composition Pyr-Glu-Tyr(SO(3)H)-Thr-Gly-Trp-Met-Asp-Phe-NH(2)It may be seen that caerulein and phyllocaerulein have in common the C-terminal heptapeptide and the N-terminal pyroglutamyl residue.2. Phyllocaerulein is indistinguishable from caerulein even in parallel bioassay. However, the former polypeptide seems to be somewhat more potent than the latter on all the preparations tested.3. In different batches of Phyllomedusa sauvagei skin the phyllocaerulein content ranged between 150 and 600 mug/g of fresh tissue.Phyllocaerulein or similar polypeptides occur also in the skin of several other Phyllomedusa species, among which are Phyll. burmeisteri, Phyll. dachnicolor, Phyll, helenae, Phyll. annae, Phyll. callidryas and Phyll. bicolor.4. The qualitative identification and quantitative estimation of caerulein-like polypeptides in crude skin extracts may be complicated by the concomitant occurrence of other active polypeptides. These, however, are poorly effective on some test preparations which seem to respond selectively to caerulein.5. Like that of caerulein, the biological significance of phyllocaerulein is completely obscure.

  9. PALEO-CHANNELS OF SINGKAWANG WATERS WEST KALIMANTAN AND ITS RELATION TO THE OCCURRENCES OF SUB-SEABOTTOM GOLD PLACERS BASED ON STRATA BOX SEISMIC RECORD ANALYSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hananto Kurnio

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Strata box seismic records were used to analyze sub-seabottom paleochannels in Singkawang Waters, West Kalimantan. Based on the analyses, it can be identified the distribution and patterns of paleochannels. Paleo channel at northern part of study area interpreted as a continuation of Recent coastal rivers; and at the southern part, the pattern radiates surround the cone-shaped morphology of islands, especially Kabung and Lemukutan Islands. Paleochannels of the study area belong to northwest Sunda Shelf systems that terminated to the South China Sea. A study on sequence stratigraphy was carried out to better understanding sedimentary sequences in the paleochannels. This study is also capable of identifying placer deposits within the channels. Based on criterias of gold placer occurrence such as existence of primary gold sources, intense chemical and physical weathering to liberate gold grains from their source rocks of Sintang Intrusive. Gravity transportation that involved water media, stable bed rock and surface conditions, caused offshore area of Singkawang fulfill requirements for gold placer accumulations. Chemical and physical whethering proccesses from Oligocene to Recent, approximately 36 million, might be found accumulation of gold placer on the seafloor. Based on grain size analyses, the study area consisted of sand 43.4%, silt 54.3% and clay 2.3%. Petrographic examination of the sample shows gold grains about 0.2%.

  10. Epithermal gold occurrences in the lakes district of the Main ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MER). Epithermal gold occurrences related to Quaternary volcanics are at present being closely studied for their precious metal potential. Low sulphidation (Adularia-sericite-type) occurrences have been found. Analyses of 579 core and cutting ...

  11. Landslide Probability Assessment by the Derived Distributions Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, E.; Ochoa, A.; Martínez, H.

    2012-12-01

    Landslides are potentially disastrous events that bring along human and economic losses; especially in cities where an accelerated and unorganized growth leads to settlements on steep and potentially unstable areas. Among the main causes of landslides are geological, geomorphological, geotechnical, climatological, hydrological conditions and anthropic intervention. This paper studies landslides detonated by rain, commonly known as "soil-slip", which characterize by having a superficial failure surface (Typically between 1 and 1.5 m deep) parallel to the slope face and being triggered by intense and/or sustained periods of rain. This type of landslides is caused by changes on the pore pressure produced by a decrease in the suction when a humid front enters, as a consequence of the infiltration initiated by rain and ruled by the hydraulic characteristics of the soil. Failure occurs when this front reaches a critical depth and the shear strength of the soil in not enough to guarantee the stability of the mass. Critical rainfall thresholds in combination with a slope stability model are widely used for assessing landslide probability. In this paper we present a model for the estimation of the occurrence of landslides based on the derived distributions technique. Since the works of Eagleson in the 1970s the derived distributions technique has been widely used in hydrology to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme flows. The model estimates the probability density function (pdf) of the Factor of Safety (FOS) from the statistical behavior of the rainfall process and some slope parameters. The stochastic character of the rainfall is transformed by means of a deterministic failure model into FOS pdf. Exceedance probability and return period estimation is then straightforward. The rainfall process is modeled as a Rectangular Pulses Poisson Process (RPPP) with independent exponential pdf for mean intensity and duration of the storms. The Philip infiltration model

  12. Consistent probabilities in loop quantum cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Craig, David A; Singh, Parampreet

    2013-01-01

    A fundamental issue for any quantum cosmological theory is to specify how probabilities can be assigned to various quantum events or sequences of events such as the occurrence of singularities or bounces. In previous work, we have demonstrated how this issue can be successfully addressed within the consistent histories approach to quantum theory for Wheeler–DeWitt-quantized cosmological models. In this work, we generalize that analysis to the exactly solvable loop quantization of a spatially flat, homogeneous and isotropic cosmology sourced with a massless, minimally coupled scalar field known as sLQC. We provide an explicit, rigorous and complete decoherent-histories formulation for this model and compute the probabilities for the occurrence of a quantum bounce versus a singularity. Using the scalar field as an emergent internal time, we show for generic states that the probability for a singularity to occur in this model is zero, and that of a bounce is unity, complementing earlier studies of the expectation values of the volume and matter density in this theory. We also show from the consistent histories point of view that all states in this model, whether quantum or classical, achieve arbitrarily large volume in the limit of infinite ‘past’ or ‘future’ scalar ‘time’, in the sense that the wave function evaluated at any arbitrary fixed value of the volume vanishes in that limit. Finally, we briefly discuss certain misconceptions concerning the utility of the consistent histories approach in these models. (paper)

  13. Evaluation of nuclear power plant component failure probability and core damage probability using simplified PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Yoshio

    2000-01-01

    It is anticipated that the change of frequency of surveillance tests, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of safety related components may cause the change of component failure probability and result in the change of core damage probability. It is also anticipated that the change is different depending on the initiating event frequency or the component types. This study assessed the change of core damage probability using simplified PSA model capable of calculating core damage probability in a short time period, which is developed by the US NRC to process accident sequence precursors, when various component's failure probability is changed between 0 and 1, or Japanese or American initiating event frequency data are used. As a result of the analysis, (1) It was clarified that frequency of surveillance test, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of motor driven pumps (high pressure injection pumps, residual heat removal pumps, auxiliary feedwater pumps) should be carefully changed, since the core damage probability's change is large, when the base failure probability changes toward increasing direction. (2) Core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance test frequency change, since the core damage probability change is small, when motor operated valves and turbine driven auxiliary feed water pump failure probability changes around one figure. (3) Core damage probability change is small, when Japanese failure probability data are applied to emergency diesel generator, even if failure probability changes one figure from the base value. On the other hand, when American failure probability data is applied, core damage probability increase is large, even if failure probability changes toward increasing direction. Therefore, when Japanese failure probability data is applied, core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance tests frequency change etc. (author)

  14. Probability mapping of contaminants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); McGraw, M.A. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Istok, J.D. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Sigda, J.M. [New Mexico Inst. of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM (United States)

    1994-04-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds).

  15. Probability mapping of contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G.; McGraw, M.A.; Istok, J.D.; Sigda, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds)

  16. Probability of causation approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jose, D.E.

    1988-01-01

    Probability of causation (PC) is sometimes viewed as a great improvement by those persons who are not happy with the present rulings of courts in radiation cases. The author does not share that hope and expects that PC will not play a significant role in these issues for at least the next decade. If it is ever adopted in a legislative compensation scheme, it will be used in a way that is unlikely to please most scientists. Consequently, PC is a false hope for radiation scientists, and its best contribution may well lie in some of the spin-off effects, such as an influence on medical practice

  17. Generalized Probability Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Souto Martinez

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.

  18. Probability in High Dimension

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-30

    precisely the content of the following result. The price we pay is that the assumption that A is a packing in (F, k ·k1) is too weak to make this happen...Regularité des trajectoires des fonctions aléatoires gaussiennes. In: École d’Été de Probabilités de Saint- Flour , IV-1974, pp. 1–96. Lecture Notes in...Lectures on probability theory and statistics (Saint- Flour , 1994), Lecture Notes in Math., vol. 1648, pp. 165–294. Springer, Berlin (1996) 50. Ledoux

  19. Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.

    2007-01-01

    Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…

  20. The transition probabilities of the reciprocity model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijders, T.A.B.

    1999-01-01

    The reciprocity model is a continuous-time Markov chain model used for modeling longitudinal network data. A new explicit expression is derived for its transition probability matrix. This expression can be checked relatively easily. Some properties of the transition probabilities are given, as well

  1. UMTRA project list of reportable occurrences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-04-01

    This UMTRA Project List of Reportable occurrences is provided to facilitate efficient categorization of reportable occurrences. These guidelines have been established in compliance with DOE minimum reporting requirements under DOE Order 5000.3B. Occurrences are arranged into nine groups relating to US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project operations for active sites. These nine groupings are provided for reference to determined whether an occurrence meets reporting requirement criteria in accordance with the minimum reporting requirements. Event groups and significance categories that cannot or will not occur, and that do not apply to UMTRA Project operations, are omitted. Occurrence categorization shall be as follows: Group 1. Facility Condition; Group 2. Environmental; Group 3. Personnel Safety; Group 4. Personnel Radiation Protection; Group 5. Safeguards and Security; Group 6. Transportation; Group 7. Value Basis Reporting; Group 8. Facility Status; and Group 9. Cross-Category Items.

  2. UMTRA project list of reportable occurrences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-04-01

    This UMTRA Project List of Reportable occurrences is provided to facilitate efficient categorization of reportable occurrences. These guidelines have been established in compliance with DOE minimum reporting requirements under DOE Order 5000.3B. Occurrences are arranged into nine groups relating to US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project operations for active sites. These nine groupings are provided for reference to determined whether an occurrence meets reporting requirement criteria in accordance with the minimum reporting requirements. Event groups and significance categories that cannot or will not occur, and that do not apply to UMTRA Project operations, are omitted. Occurrence categorization shall be as follows: Group 1. Facility Condition; Group 2. Environmental; Group 3. Personnel Safety; Group 4. Personnel Radiation Protection; Group 5. Safeguards and Security; Group 6. Transportation; Group 7. Value Basis Reporting; Group 8. Facility Status; and Group 9. Cross-Category Items

  3. UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) probability wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Sheng-Cheng; Lee, Sara; Wang, Allen; Cantor, Scott B.; Sun, Clement; Fan, Kaili; Reece, Gregory P.; Kim, Min Soon; Markey, Mia K.

    A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an "investigator" and a "participant", about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.

  4. Probability concepts in quality risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claycamp, H Gregg

    2012-01-01

    Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

  5. Childhood trauma, parental death, and their co-occurrence in relation to current suicidality risk in adults: a nationwide community sample of Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Hong Jin; Lee, Christina; Fava, Maurizio; Mischoulon, David; Shim, Eun-Jung; Heo, Jung-Yoon; Choi, Hong; Park, Jae-Hyun

    2014-12-01

    Although previous studies have suggested that childhood trauma and parental death are strongly associated with suicidality in adulthood, it is still unclear how these factors interact within the same population. A total of 1396 adults were recruited through nationwide multistage probability sampling in South Korea. Subjects were evaluated through face-to-face interviews using the Suicidality Module of the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview and the Early Trauma Inventory Self Report-Short Form. Among the 1396 adults, the group that experienced both childhood trauma and parental death had the highest current suicidality risks (F = 12.16, p suicide attempt (χ2 = 35.81, p suicidality risk and lifetime suicide attempt were significantly associated with concurrent childhood trauma and parental death (odds ratio, 3.64; 95% confidence interval, 1.99-6.65) as well as with only childhood trauma (odds ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-2.87), after adjusting for age, sex, education, marital status, household monthly income, and living area. Emotional abuse was the only type of childhood trauma significantly associated with higher current suicidality scores in those who experienced childhood parental death than in those who did not (F = 3.26, p = 0.041). Current suicidality risk and lifetime suicide attempt are associated with experiencing both parental death and trauma, especially emotional abuse, in childhood, whereas experiencing only childhood parental death is associated with neither.

  6. Modulation Based on Probability Density Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Glenn L.

    2009-01-01

    A proposed method of modulating a sinusoidal carrier signal to convey digital information involves the use of histograms representing probability density functions (PDFs) that characterize samples of the signal waveform. The method is based partly on the observation that when a waveform is sampled (whether by analog or digital means) over a time interval at least as long as one half cycle of the waveform, the samples can be sorted by frequency of occurrence, thereby constructing a histogram representing a PDF of the waveform during that time interval.

  7. Microgravity-induced modifications of the vestibuloocular reflex in Xenopus laevis tadpoles are related to development and the occurrence of tail lordosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horn, Eberhard R

    2006-08-01

    During space flights, tadpoles of the clawed toad Xenopus laevis occasionally develop upward bended tails (tail lordosis). The tail lordosis disappears after re-entry to 1g within a couple of days. The mechanisms responsible for the induction of the tail lordosis are unknown; physical conditions such as weight de-loading or physiological factors such as decreased vestibular activity in microgravity might contribute. Microgravity (microg) also exerts significant effects on the roll-induced vestibuloocular reflex (rVOR). The rVOR was used to clarify whether tail lordosis is caused by physiological factors, by correlating the occurrence of microg-induced tail lordosis with the extent of microg-induced rVOR modifications. Post-flight recordings from three space flights (D-2 Spacelab mission, STS-55 in 1993; Shuttle-to-Mir mission SMM-06, STS-84 in 1997; French Soyuz taxi flight Andromède to ISS in 2001) were analyzed in these experiments. At onset of microgravity, tadpoles were at stages 25-28, 33-36 or 45. Parameters tested were rVOR gain (ratio between the angular eye movement and the lateral 30 degrees roll) and rVOR amplitude (maximal angular postural change of the eyes during a 360 degrees lateral roll). A ratio of 22-84% of tadpoles developed lordotic tails, depending on the space flight. The overall observation was that the rVOR of tadpoles with normal tails was either not affected by microgravity, or it was enhanced. In contrast, the rVOR of lordotic animals always revealed a depression. In particular, during post-flight days 1-11, tadpoles with lordotic tails from all three groups (25-28, 33-36 and 45) showed a lower rVOR gain and amplitude than the 1g-controls. The rVOR gain and amplitude of tadpoles from the groups 25-28 and 33-36 that developed normal tails was not affected by microgravity while the rVOR of microg-tadpoles from the stage-45 group with normal tails revealed a significant rVOR augmentation. (1) the vestibular system of tadpoles with lordotic

  8. Probable maximum flood control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeGabriele, C.E.; Wu, C.L.

    1991-11-01

    This study proposes preliminary design concepts to protect the waste-handling facilities and all shaft and ramp entries to the underground from the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the current design configuration for the proposed Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation (NNWSI) repository protection provisions were furnished by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USSR) or developed from USSR data. Proposed flood protection provisions include site grading, drainage channels, and diversion dikes. Figures are provided to show these proposed flood protection provisions at each area investigated. These areas are the central surface facilities (including the waste-handling building and waste treatment building), tuff ramp portal, waste ramp portal, men-and-materials shaft, emplacement exhaust shaft, and exploratory shafts facility

  9. Packaging and transportation occurrence reporting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Needels, T.S.

    1996-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) Order 231.1 calls for the maintenance of a database for all unclassified occurrence reports (ORs). ORS provide DOE with notice of incidents and accidents that endanger the public, workers, or DOE facility operations. To fulfill this policy, the DOE Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS) was established to require DOE facilities to report and process information concerning such events. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) provides DOE with data and analysis of occurrence related to packaging and transportation (P and T) safety. This program produces annual reports, lessons learned bulletins, and information for the packaging and transportation home page on the Internet. The analysis and reports provided can be used as a tool for oversight and a means for DOE sites to be proactive and anticipate problems through shared knowledge and lessons learned. To illustrate, some observable trends based on 3 years of the program are given. In summary, this program shows potential problem areas that need correcting, and possible breakdowns of safety

  10. Relation between the occurrence of Burnout and differential pressure fluctuation characteristics caused by the disturbance waves passing by a flow obstacle in a vertical boiling two-phase upward flow in a narrow annular channel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mori, Shoji [Yokohama National University, Yokohama 240-8501 (Japan)]. E-mail: morisho@ynu.ac.jp; Fukano, Tohru [Kurume Institute of University, Fukuoka 830-0052 (Japan)]. E-mail: fukanot@cc.kurume-it.ac.jp

    2006-05-15

    If a flow obstacle such as a spacer is placed in a boiling two-phase flow within a channel, the temperature on the surface of the heating tube is severely affected by the existence of the spacer. Under certain conditions the spacer has a cooling effect, and under other conditions the spacer causes dryout of the cooling water film on the heating surface, resulting in burnout of the tube. The burnout mechanism near the spacer, however, remains unclear. In a previous paper (Fukano, T., Mori, S., Akamatsu, S., Baba, A., 2002. Relation between temperature fluctuation of a heating surface and generation of drypatch caused by a cylindrical spacer in a vertical boiling two-phase upward flow in a narrow annular channel. Nucl. Eng. Des. 217, 81-90), we reported that the disturbance wave has a significant effect on dryout occurrence. Therefore, in the present paper, the relation between dryout, burnout occurrence, and interval between two successive disturbance waves obtained from the differential pressure fluctuation caused by the disturbance waves passing by a spacer, is further discussed in detail.

  11. Relation between the occurrence of Burnout and differential pressure fluctuation characteristics caused by the disturbance waves passing by a flow obstacle in a vertical boiling two-phase upward flow in a narrow annular channel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mori, Shoji; Fukano, Tohru

    2006-01-01

    If a flow obstacle such as a spacer is placed in a boiling two-phase flow within a channel, the temperature on the surface of the heating tube is severely affected by the existence of the spacer. Under certain conditions the spacer has a cooling effect, and under other conditions the spacer causes dryout of the cooling water film on the heating surface, resulting in burnout of the tube. The burnout mechanism near the spacer, however, remains unclear. In a previous paper (Fukano, T., Mori, S., Akamatsu, S., Baba, A., 2002. Relation between temperature fluctuation of a heating surface and generation of drypatch caused by a cylindrical spacer in a vertical boiling two-phase upward flow in a narrow annular channel. Nucl. Eng. Des. 217, 81-90), we reported that the disturbance wave has a significant effect on dryout occurrence. Therefore, in the present paper, the relation between dryout, burnout occurrence, and interval between two successive disturbance waves obtained from the differential pressure fluctuation caused by the disturbance waves passing by a spacer, is further discussed in detail

  12. Statistical physics approach to earthquake occurrence and forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arcangelis, Lucilla de [Department of Industrial and Information Engineering, Second University of Naples, Aversa (CE) (Italy); Godano, Cataldo [Department of Mathematics and Physics, Second University of Naples, Caserta (Italy); Grasso, Jean Robert [ISTerre, IRD-CNRS-OSUG, University of Grenoble, Saint Martin d’Héres (France); Lippiello, Eugenio, E-mail: eugenio.lippiello@unina2.it [Department of Mathematics and Physics, Second University of Naples, Caserta (Italy)

    2016-04-25

    There is striking evidence that the dynamics of the Earth crust is controlled by a wide variety of mutually dependent mechanisms acting at different spatial and temporal scales. The interplay of these mechanisms produces instabilities in the stress field, leading to abrupt energy releases, i.e., earthquakes. As a consequence, the evolution towards instability before a single event is very difficult to monitor. On the other hand, collective behavior in stress transfer and relaxation within the Earth crust leads to emergent properties described by stable phenomenological laws for a population of many earthquakes in size, time and space domains. This observation has stimulated a statistical mechanics approach to earthquake occurrence, applying ideas and methods as scaling laws, universality, fractal dimension, renormalization group, to characterize the physics of earthquakes. In this review we first present a description of the phenomenological laws of earthquake occurrence which represent the frame of reference for a variety of statistical mechanical models, ranging from the spring-block to more complex fault models. Next, we discuss the problem of seismic forecasting in the general framework of stochastic processes, where seismic occurrence can be described as a branching process implementing space–time-energy correlations between earthquakes. In this context we show how correlations originate from dynamical scaling relations between time and energy, able to account for universality and provide a unifying description for the phenomenological power laws. Then we discuss how branching models can be implemented to forecast the temporal evolution of the earthquake occurrence probability and allow to discriminate among different physical mechanisms responsible for earthquake triggering. In particular, the forecasting problem will be presented in a rigorous mathematical framework, discussing the relevance of the processes acting at different temporal scales for

  13. Probability and rational choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Botting

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1808-1711.2014v18n1p1 In this paper I will discuss the rationality of reasoning about the future. There are two things that we might like to know about the future: which hypotheses are true and what will happen next. To put it in philosophical language, I aim to show that there are methods by which inferring to a generalization (selecting a hypothesis and inferring to the next instance (singular predictive inference can be shown to be normative and the method itself shown to be rational, where this is due in part to being based on evidence (although not in the same way and in part on a prior rational choice. I will also argue that these two inferences have been confused, being distinct not only conceptually (as nobody disputes but also in their results (the value given to the probability of the hypothesis being not in general that given to the next instance and that methods that are adequate for one are not by themselves adequate for the other. A number of debates over method founder on this confusion and do not show what the debaters think they show.

  14. Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaz, Teresa; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, Susana; Cruz Oliveira, Sérgio; Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Quaresma, Ivânia

    2018-04-01

    This work proposes a comprehensive method to assess rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation using a centenary landslide database associated with a single centenary daily rainfall data set. The method is applied to the Lisbon region and includes the rainfall return period analysis that was used to identify the critical rainfall combination (cumulated rainfall duration) related to each landslide event. The spatial representativeness of the reference rain gauge is evaluated and the rainfall thresholds are assessed and calibrated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. Results show that landslide events located up to 10 km from the rain gauge can be used to calculate the rainfall thresholds in the study area; however, these thresholds may be used with acceptable confidence up to 50 km from the rain gauge. The rainfall thresholds obtained using linear and potential regression perform well in ROC metrics. However, the intermediate thresholds based on the probability of landslide events established in the zone between the lower-limit threshold and the upper-limit threshold are much more informative as they indicate the probability of landslide event occurrence given rainfall exceeding the threshold. This information can be easily included in landslide early warning systems, especially when combined with the probability of rainfall above each threshold.

  15. Relationship between concentrations of microbiological agents in the air of agricultural settings and occurrence of work-related symptoms in exposed persons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Mackiewicz

    2015-09-01

    related symptoms and the concentration of total airborne microorganisms (R=0.748555; P=0.020317, mesophilic bacteria (R=0.7573; P=0.029548, Gram-negative bacteria (R=0.835938; P=0.019129, and endotoxins (R=0.705356; P=0.03378. The correlations between the concentrations of thermophilic actinomycetes and fungi, on one side, and frequency of work-related symptoms on the other, did not attain the threshold of significance (P=0.087049 and P=0.062963, respectively. Results of the meta-analysis confirm harmful health effects of the total airborne microorganisms, total airborne mesophilic bacteria, airborne Gram-negative bacteria, and airborne bacterial endotoxin on the occupationally-exposed agricultural workers, and indicate a need for the establishment of internationally recognized occupational exposure limits for these microbial agents.

  16. COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.

    1979-01-01

    1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions

  17. Probability distribution relationships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yousry Abdelkader

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we are interesting to show the most famous distributions and their relations to the other distributions in collected diagrams. Four diagrams are sketched as networks. The first one is concerned to the continuous distributions and their relations. The second one presents the discrete distributions. The third diagram is depicted the famous limiting distributions. Finally, the Balakrishnan skew-normal density and its relationship with the other distributions are shown in the fourth diagram.

  18. A Tale of Two Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

  19. Introduction to probability with R

    CERN Document Server

    Baclawski, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

  20. The influence of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall on the occurrence of the Pine Wood Nematode in Góis Council, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, M. E. G.; Rodrigues, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    In this work, we propose to investigate the influence of the pine wood nematode in the species pinus pinaster in Góis council and the way it affects the economic activity in this region. In order to do that we are going to analyse the influence of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall in the development of the vector insect of the pine wood nematode. In a first stage we are going to do a homogenisation of the series of temperature and rainfall, since they present a significant lack of data. For that we have chosen a reference station that allows us to determine the correlation coefficient to eliminate the lacks that are present in the other series. After that we are going to do the correlation with the number of nematode episodes that occurred and evaluate the area affected for a single year.

  1. Prediction of drug-related cardiac adverse effects in humans--A: creation of a database of effects and identification of factors affecting their occurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Edwin J; Frid, Anna A

    2010-04-01

    This is the first of two reports that describes the compilation of a database of drug-related cardiac adverse effects (AEs) that was used to construct quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models to predict these AEs, to identify properties of pharmaceuticals correlated with the AEs, and to identify plausible mechanisms of action (MOAs) causing the AEs. This database of 396,985 cardiac AE reports was linked to 1632 approved drugs and their chemical structures, 1851 clinical indications (CIs), 997 therapeutic targets (TTs), 432 pharmacological MOAs, and 21,180 affinity coefficients (ACs) for the MOA receptors. AEs were obtained from the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) Spontaneous Reporting System (SRS) and Adverse Event Reporting System (AERS) and publicly available medical literature. Drug TTs were obtained from Integrity; drug MOAs and ACs were predicted by BioEpisteme. Significant cardiac AEs and patient exposures were estimated based on the proportional reporting ratios (PRRs) for each drug and each AE endpoint as a percentage of the total AEs. Cardiac AE endpoints were bundled based on toxicological mechanism and concordance of drug-related findings. Results revealed that significant cardiac AEs formed 9 clusters affecting Purkinje nerve fibers (arrhythmia, bradycardia, conduction disorder, electrocardiogram, palpitations, QT prolongation, rate rhythm composite, tachycardia, and Torsades de pointes), and 5 clusters affecting the heart muscle (coronary artery disorders, heart failure, myocardial disorders, myocardial infarction, and valve disorders). Based on the observation that each drug had one TT and up to 9 off-target MOAs, cardiac AEs were highly correlated with drugs affecting cardiovascular and cardioneurological functions and certain MOAs (e.g., alpha- and beta-adeno, dopamine, and hydroxytryptomine receptors). Copyright 2010. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  2. Active Longitude and Solar Flare Occurrences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyenge, N.; Ludmány, A.; Baranyi, T.

    2016-02-01

    The aim of the present work is to specify the spatio-temporal characteristics of flare activity observed by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) in connection with the behavior of the longitudinal domain of enhanced sunspot activity known as active longitude (AL). By using our method developed for this purpose, we identified the AL in every Carrington Rotation provided by the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data. The spatial probability of flare occurrence has been estimated depending on the longitudinal distance from AL in the northern and southern hemispheres separately. We have found that more than 60% of the RHESSI and GOES flares is located within +/- 36^\\circ from the AL. Hence, the most flare-productive active regions tend to be located in or close to the active longitudinal belt. This observed feature may allow for the prediction of the geo-effective position of the domain of enhanced flaring probability. Furthermore, we studied the temporal properties of flare occurrence near the AL and several significant fluctuations were found. More precisely, the results of the method are the following fluctuations: 0.8, 1.3, and 1.8 years. These temporal and spatial properties of the solar flare occurrence within the active longitudinal belts could provide us with an enhanced solar flare forecasting opportunity.

  3. A first course in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Sheldon

    2014-01-01

    A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.

  4. Prediction of accident sequence probabilities in a nuclear power plant due to earthquake events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, J.M.; Collins, J.D.

    1980-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology to predict accident probabilities in nuclear power plants subject to earthquakes. The resulting computer program accesses response data to compute component failure probabilities using fragility functions. Using logical failure definitions for systems, and the calculated component failure probabilities, initiating event and safety system failure probabilities are synthesized. The incorporation of accident sequence expressions allows the calculation of terminal event probabilities. Accident sequences, with their occurrence probabilities, are finally coupled to a specific release category. A unique aspect of the methodology is an analytical procedure for calculating top event probabilities based on the correlated failure of primary events

  5. Modeling experiments using quantum and Kolmogorov probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hess, Karl

    2008-01-01

    Criteria are presented that permit a straightforward partition of experiments into sets that can be modeled using both quantum probability and the classical probability framework of Kolmogorov. These new criteria concentrate on the operational aspects of the experiments and lead beyond the commonly appreciated partition by relating experiments to commuting and non-commuting quantum operators as well as non-entangled and entangled wavefunctions. In other words the space of experiments that can be understood using classical probability is larger than usually assumed. This knowledge provides advantages for areas such as nanoscience and engineering or quantum computation.

  6. Substantially Higher and Earlier Occurrence of Anti-Tuberculosis Drug-Related Adverse Reactions in HIV Coinfected Tuberculosis Patients: A Matched-Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matono, Takashi; Nishijima, Takeshi; Teruya, Katsuji; Morino, Eriko; Takasaki, Jin; Gatanaga, Hiroyuki; Kikuchi, Yoshimi; Kaku, Mitsuo; Oka, Shinichi

    2017-11-01

    Little information exists on the frequency, severity, and timing of first-line anti-tuberculosis drug-related adverse events (TB-AEs) in HIV-tuberculosis coinfected (HIV-TB) patients in the antiretroviral therapy (ART) era. This matched-cohort study included HIV-TB patients as cases and HIV-uninfected tuberculosis (non-HIV-TB) patients as controls. Tuberculosis was culture-confirmed in both groups. Cases were matched to controls in a 1:4 ratio on age, sex, and year of diagnosis. TB-AEs were defined as Grade 2 or higher requiring drug discontinuation/regimen change. From 2003 to 2015, 94 cases and 376 controls were analyzed (95% men, 98% Asians). Standard four-drug combination therapy was initiated in 91% of cases and 89% of controls (p = 0.45). Cases had a higher frequency of TB-AE [51% (48/94) vs. 10% (39/376), p tuberculosis treatment. HIV infection was an independent risk factor for TB-AEs in the multivariate Cox analysis [adjusted HR (aHR): 6.96; 95% confidence interval: 3.93-12.3]. TB-AEs occurred more frequently in HIV-TB than in non-HIV-TB patients, and were more severe. The majority of TB-AEs occurred within 4 weeks of initiating anti-tuberculosis treatment. Because TB-AEs may delay ART initiation, careful monitoring during this period is warranted in coinfected patients.

  7. Occurrence of Cladosporium spp. and Alternaria spp. spores in Western, Northern and Central-Eastern Poland in 2004-2006 and relation to some meteorological factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinn-Gofroń, Agnieszka; Rapiejko, Piotr

    2009-08-01

    The concentration of airborne spores of Cladosporium spp. and Alternaria spp. has been investigated at three monitoring stations situated along the west-north and central-east transect in Poland (Szczecin, Olsztyn, Warszawa,) i.e. from a height of 100 m to 149 m above sea level. The aerobiological monitoring of fungal spores was performed by means of three Lanzoni volumetric spore traps. Cladosporium spp. spores were dominant at all the stations. The highest Cladosporium spp. and Alternaria spp. numbers of spores were observed at all the cities in July and August. Statistically significant correlations have been found between the Cladosporium spp. and Alternaria spp. concentration in the air and the mean air temperature, amount of precipitation, air pressure and relative air humidity. The spore count of Cladosporium spp. and Alternaria spp. is determined by the diversity of local flora and weather conditions, especially by the air temperature. The identification of factors, which influence and shape spore concentrations, may significantly improve the current methods of allergy prevention.

  8. Analysis of co-occurrence toponyms in web pages based on complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Xiang; Liu, Jiajun; Gao, Yong; Wu, Lun

    2017-01-01

    A large number of geographical toponyms exist in web pages and other documents, providing abundant geographical resources for GIS. It is very common for toponyms to co-occur in the same documents. To investigate these relations associated with geographic entities, a novel complex network model for co-occurrence toponyms is proposed. Then, 12 toponym co-occurrence networks are constructed from the toponym sets extracted from the People's Daily Paper documents of 2010. It is found that two toponyms have a high co-occurrence probability if they are at the same administrative level or if they possess a part-whole relationship. By applying complex network analysis methods to toponym co-occurrence networks, we find the following characteristics. (1) The navigation vertices of the co-occurrence networks can be found by degree centrality analysis. (2) The networks express strong cluster characteristics, and it takes only several steps to reach one vertex from another one, implying that the networks are small-world graphs. (3) The degree distribution satisfies the power law with an exponent of 1.7, so the networks are free-scale. (4) The networks are disassortative and have similar assortative modes, with assortative exponents of approximately 0.18 and assortative indexes less than 0. (5) The frequency of toponym co-occurrence is weakly negatively correlated with geographic distance, but more strongly negatively correlated with administrative hierarchical distance. Considering the toponym frequencies and co-occurrence relationships, a novel method based on link analysis is presented to extract the core toponyms from web pages. This method is suitable and effective for geographical information retrieval.

  9. [Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

    2015-07-01

    The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located.

  10. Relation between "terra rossa" from the Apulia aquifer of Italy and the radon content of groundwater: Experimental results and their applicability to radon occurrence in the aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadolini, T.; Spizzico, M.

    The radon-222 (222Rn) activity in groundwater of the Apulian karstic aquifer in southern Italy is as great as 500 Becquerel per liter (Bq/L) locally. Normal radium-226 (226Ra) activity in the limestone and calcareous dolomites of the aquifer is not enough to explain such a high level. Laboratory investigations identified high 226Ra activity in the "terra rossa," the residuum occupying fissures and cavities in the bedrock, and also the relation between (1) 226Ra-bearing bedrock and "terra rossa" and (2) 222Rn in water. The "terra rossa" is the primary source of the radon in the groundwater. The experimental results show the need to characterize the "terra rossa" of Apulia on the basis of 226Ra activity and also to study the distribution and variations in 222Rn activity over time in the aquifer. Résumé L'activité du radon-222 (222Rn) dans les eaux souterraines de l'aquifère karstique des Pouilles, dans le sud de l'Italie, atteint localement 500 Becquerel par litre (Bq/L). L'activité normale du radium-226 (226Ra) dans les calcaires et dans les calcaires dolomitiques de l'aquifère n'est pas assez élevée pour expliquer des valeurs aussi élevées. Des analyses de laboratoire ont mis en évidence une forte activité en 226Ra dans la terra rossa, remplissage de fissures et de cavités de la roche, ainsi qu'une relation entre (1) la roche et la terra rossa contenant du 226Ra et (2) le 222Rn dans l'eau. La terra rossa est la source primaire de radon dans l'eau souterraine. Les résultats expérimentaux montrent qu'il est nécessaire de caractériser la terra rossa des Pouilles par son activité en 226Ra et d'étudier la distribution et les variations de l'activité en 222Rn au cours du temps dans l'aquifère. Resumen La actividad del radon-222 (222Rn) en el agua subterránea del acuífero cárstico de Apulia, al sur de Italia, alcanza localmente los 500Bq/L. La actividad normal del radio-226 (226Ra) en las calcitas y dolomitas del acuífero no es suficiente para

  11. On the Possibility of Assigning Probabilities to Singular Cases, or: Probability Is Subjective Too!

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark R. Crovelli

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Both Ludwig von Mises and Richard von Mises claimed that numerical probability could not be legitimately applied to singular cases. This paper challenges this aspect of the von Mises brothers’ theory of probability. It is argued that their denial that numerical probability could be applied to singular cases was based solely upon Richard von Mises’ exceptionally restrictive definition of probability. This paper challenges Richard von Mises’ definition of probability by arguing that the definition of probability necessarily depends upon whether the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is argued that if the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws, a subjective definition of probability must be adopted. It is further argued that both the nature of human action and the relative frequency method for calculating numerical probabilities both presuppose that the world is indeed governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is finally argued that the subjective definition of probability undercuts the von Mises claim that numerical probability cannot legitimately be applied to singular, non-replicable cases.

  12. Probability intervals for the top event unavailability of fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Y.T.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    1976-06-01

    The evaluation of probabilities of rare events is of major importance in the quantitative assessment of the risk from large technological systems. In particular, for nuclear power plants the complexity of the systems, their high reliability and the lack of significant statistical records have led to the extensive use of logic diagrams in the estimation of low probabilities. The estimation of probability intervals for the probability of existence of the top event of a fault tree is examined. Given the uncertainties of the primary input data, a method is described for the evaluation of the first four moments of the top event occurrence probability. These moments are then used to estimate confidence bounds by several approaches which are based on standard inequalities (e.g., Tchebycheff, Cantelli, etc.) or on empirical distributions (the Johnson family). Several examples indicate that the Johnson family of distributions yields results which are in good agreement with those produced by Monte Carlo simulation

  13. Quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities in the lattice of subspaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vourdas, A.

    2014-01-01

    The orthocomplemented modular lattice of subspaces L[H(d)], of a quantum system with d-dimensional Hilbert space H(d), is considered. A generalized additivity relation which holds for Kolmogorov probabilities is violated by quantum probabilities in the full lattice L[H(d)] (it is only valid within the Boolean subalgebras of L[H(d)]). This suggests the use of more general (than Kolmogorov) probability theories, and here the Dempster-Shafer probability theory is adopted. An operator D(H 1 ,H 2 ), which quantifies deviations from Kolmogorov probability theory is introduced, and it is shown to be intimately related to the commutator of the projectors P(H 1 ),P(H 2 ), to the subspaces H 1 , H 2 . As an application, it is shown that the proof of the inequalities of Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt for a system of two spin 1/2 particles is valid for Kolmogorov probabilities, but it is not valid for Dempster-Shafer probabilities. The violation of these inequalities in experiments supports the interpretation of quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities

  14. Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballentine, Leslie E.

    2016-08-01

    Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

  15. The 'time of occurrence' in quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srinivas, M.D.; Vijayalakshmi, R.

    1981-01-01

    Apart from serving as a parameter in describing the evolution of a system, time appears also as an observable property of a system in experiments where one measures 'the time of occurrence' of an event associated with the system. However, while the observables normally encountered in quantum theory (and characterized by self-adjoint operators or projection-valued measures) correspond to instantaneous measurements, a time of occurrence measurement involves continuous observations being performed on the system to monitor when the event occurs. It is argued that a time of occurrence observable should be represented by a positive-operator-valued measure on the interval over which the experiment is carried out. It is shown that while the requirement of time-translation invariance and the spectral condition rule out the possibility of a self-adjoint time operator (Pauli's theorem), they do allow for time of occurrence observables to be represented by suitable positive-operator-valued measures. It is also shown that the uncertainty in the time of occurrence of an event satisfies the time-energy uncertainty relation as a consequence of the time-translation invariance, only if the time of occurrence experiment is performed on the entire time axis. (author)

  16. OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS: ASSESSMENT FROM HISTORICAL PROXY DATA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usoskin, Ilya G.; Kovaltsov, Gennady A.

    2012-01-01

    The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with proton fluence (>30 MeV) F 30 ≥ 10 10 cm –2 is evaluated based on data on the cosmogenic isotopes 14 C and 10 Be in terrestrial archives covering centennial-millennial timescales. Four potential candidates with F 30 = (1-1.5) × 10 10 cm –2 and no events with F 30 > 2 × 10 10 cm –2 are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved 10 Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11,400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F 30 = (1-3) × 10 10 cm –2 are found and clearly no event with F 30 > 5 × 10 10 cm –2 (50 times the SPE of 1956 February 23) has occurred. These values serve as observational upper limits on the strength of SPEs on the timescale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates for extreme SPEs. We build a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. Practical limits can be set as F 30 ≈ 1, 2-3, and 5×10 10 cm –2 for occurrence probabilities ≈10 –2 , 10 –3 , and 10 –4 yr –1 , respectively. Because of the uncertainties, our results should be interpreted as a conservative upper limit on the SPE occurrence near Earth. The mean solar energetic particle (SEP) flux is evaluated as ≈40 (cm 2 s) –1 , in agreement with estimates from lunar rocks. On average, extreme SPEs contribute about 10% to the total SEP fluence.

  17. Occurrence and distribution of Indian primates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karanth, K.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    2010-01-01

    Global and regional species conservation efforts are hindered by poor distribution data and range maps. Many Indian primates face extinction, but assessments of population status are hindered by lack of reliable distribution data. We estimated the current occurrence and distribution of 15 Indian primates by applying occupancy models to field data from a country-wide survey of local experts. We modeled species occurrence in relation to ecological and social covariates (protected areas, landscape characteristics, and human influences), which we believe are critical to determining species occurrence in India. We found evidence that protected areas positively influence occurrence of seven species and for some species are their only refuge. We found evergreen forests to be more critical for some primates along with temperate and deciduous forests. Elevation negatively influenced occurrence of three species. Lower human population density was positively associated with occurrence of five species, and higher cultural tolerance was positively associated with occurrence of three species. We find that 11 primates occupy less than 15% of the total land area of India. Vulnerable primates with restricted ranges are Golden langur, Arunachal macaque, Pig-tailed macaque, stump-tailed macaque, Phayre's leaf monkey, Nilgiri langur and Lion-tailed macaque. Only Hanuman langur and rhesus macaque are widely distributed. We find occupancy modeling to be useful in determining species ranges, and in agreement with current species ranking and IUCN status. In landscapes where monitoring efforts require optimizing cost, effort and time, we used ecological and social covariates to reliably estimate species occurrence and focus species conservation efforts. ?? Elsevier Ltd.

  18. Probability of brittle failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, A.; Bosnyak, C. P.; Chudnovsky, A.

    1991-01-01

    A methodology was developed for collecting statistically representative data for crack initiation and arrest from small number of test specimens. An epoxy (based on bisphenol A diglycidyl ether and polyglycol extended diglycyl ether and cured with diethylene triamine) is selected as a model material. A compact tension specimen with displacement controlled loading is used to observe multiple crack initiation and arrests. The energy release rate at crack initiation is significantly higher than that at a crack arrest, as has been observed elsewhere. The difference between these energy release rates is found to depend on specimen size (scale effect), and is quantitatively related to the fracture surface morphology. The scale effect, similar to that in statistical strength theory, is usually attributed to the statistics of defects which control the fracture process. Triangular shaped ripples (deltoids) are formed on the fracture surface during the slow subcritical crack growth, prior to the smooth mirror-like surface characteristic of fast cracks. The deltoids are complementary on the two crack faces which excludes any inelastic deformation from consideration. Presence of defects is also suggested by the observed scale effect. However, there are no defects at the deltoid apexes detectable down to the 0.1 micron level.

  19. Clinical and statistical evaluation of the occurrence of acute myocardial infarction in the cold inland area of Hokkaido.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirasawa, K; Shibata, J; Yamamura, K

    1989-07-01

    We made a clinical and statistical evaluation of the occurrence of acute myocardial infarction with respect to the relation between its occurrence and the meterology of the cold inland area of Hokkaido (the Kamikawa Basin) over a period of 10 years (1976-1985). A total of 581 cases were studied. Monthly fluctuation of incidence was not found to be statistically significant. A cold period in the Kamikawa Basin was defined in this study as the period when ordinary mean atmospheric temperatures were below 0 degree C (from 7 Nov. to 16 Apr.). Canonical discriminant analysis was applied to 10 meterological factors between the days with occurrences and those without occurrences (245 days vs 245 days) in the cold periods of the investigated 10 years, and between the days with outdoor occurrences and those without occurrences (37 days vs 37 days). In order to compare the regional difference, this analysis was done on the same 10 factors for the cold periods over 3 years in Yamagata (46 days vs 46 days). The F values of 0.0003, 0.0155 and 0.0098 respectively in the above 3 analyses were small (much less than F 1(9) (0.25) = 1.51). A circadian rhythm of 2 cycles/day was recognized concerning the time of occurrence by power spectral analysis of the data of 562 patients for whom the time of the onset of myocardial infarction was known. Subdividing the patients into 2 groups according to physical activity just before the occurrence, the group who experienced an occurrence at rest showed a rhythm of 1 cycle/day, and the group who experienced an occurrence on effort showed a rhythm of 2 cycles/day. Therefore, the 10 meterological factors could not discriminate the probabilities between the days with occurrences and the days without occurrences of myocardial infarction in the cold periods. On the other hand, it was suggested that biological intrinsic rhythm participates in triggering the occurrence of myocardial infarction.

  20. Encounter Probability of Individual Wave Height

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Z.; Burcharth, H. F.

    1998-01-01

    wave height corresponding to a certain exceedence probability within a structure lifetime (encounter probability), based on the statistical analysis of long-term extreme significant wave height. Then the design individual wave height is calculated as the expected maximum individual wave height...... associated with the design significant wave height, with the assumption that the individual wave heights follow the Rayleigh distribution. However, the exceedence probability of such a design individual wave height within the structure lifetime is unknown. The paper presents a method for the determination...... of the design individual wave height corresponding to an exceedence probability within the structure lifetime, given the long-term extreme significant wave height. The method can also be applied for estimation of the number of relatively large waves for fatigue analysis of constructions....

  1. Predicting binary choices from probability phrase meanings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallsten, Thomas S; Jang, Yoonhee

    2008-08-01

    The issues of how individuals decide which of two events is more likely and of how they understand probability phrases both involve judging relative likelihoods. In this study, we investigated whether derived scales representing probability phrase meanings could be used within a choice model to predict independently observed binary choices. If they can, this simultaneously provides support for our model and suggests that the phrase meanings are measured meaningfully. The model assumes that, when deciding which of two events is more likely, judges take a single sample from memory regarding each event and respond accordingly. The model predicts choice probabilities by using the scaled meanings of individually selected probability phrases as proxies for confidence distributions associated with sampling from memory. Predictions are sustained for 34 of 41 participants but, nevertheless, are biased slightly low. Sequential sampling models improve the fit. The results have both theoretical and applied implications.

  2. Relating lightning data to fire occurrence data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank H. Koch

    2009-01-01

    Lightning disturbance can affect forest health at various scales. Lightning strikes may kill or weaken individual trees. Lightning-damaged trees may in turn function as epicenters of pest outbreaks in forest stands, as is the case with the southern pine beetle and other bark beetles (Rykiel and others 1988).

  3. Probability Distribution of Long-run Indiscriminate Felling of Trees in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Bright

    conditionally independent of every prior state given the current state (Obodos, ... of events or experiments in which the probability of occurrence for an event ... represent the exhaustive and mutually exclusive outcomes (states) of a system at.

  4. Conditional probability of intense rainfall producing high ground concentrations from radioactive plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wayland, J.R.

    1977-03-01

    The overlap of the expanding plume of radioactive material from a hypothetical nuclear accident with rainstorms over dense population areas is considered. The conditional probability of the occurrence of hot spots from intense cellular rainfall is presented

  5. Prediction and probability in sciences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.

    1998-01-01

    This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)

  6. Applied probability and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Sumita, Ushio

    1999-01-01

    Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

  7. Early Pleistocene occurrence of Acheulian technology in North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xingwen; Ao, Hong; Dekkers, Mark J.; Roberts, Andrew P.; Zhang, Peng; Lin, Shan; Huang, Weiwen; Hou, Yamei; Zhang, Weihua; An, Zhisheng

    2017-01-01

    Acheulian tools with their associated level of cognizance heralded a major threshold in the evolution of hominin technology, culture and behavior. Thus, unraveling occurrence ages of Acheulian technology across different regions worldwide constitutes a key aspect of understanding the archeology of early human evolution. Here we present a magneto-cyclochronology for the Acheulian assemblage from Sanmenxia Basin, Loess Plateau, North China. Our results place a sequence of stable normal and reversed paleomagnetic polarities within a regional lithostratigraphic context. The Acheulian assemblage is dated to be older than the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary at 0.78 Ma, and is found in strata that are probably equivalent to a weak paleosol subunit within loess layer L9 in the Chinese loess-paleosol sequence, which corresponds to marine isotope stage (MIS) 23, a relatively subdued interglacial period with age range of ∼0.89-0.92 Ma. This age of ∼0.9 Ma implies that Acheulian stone tools were unambiguously present in North China during the Early Pleistocene. It distinctly enlarges the geographic distribution of Acheulian technology and brings its occurrence in North China back into the Early Pleistocene, which is contemporaneous with its first emergence in Europe. Combined with other archeological records, the larger area over which Acheulian technology existed in East Asia during the terminal Early Pleistocene has important implications for understanding early human occupation of North China.

  8. Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part I: Effects of Random Error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duda, David P.; Minnis, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    Straightforward application of the Schmidt-Appleman contrail formation criteria to diagnose persistent contrail occurrence from numerical weather prediction data is hindered by significant bias errors in the upper tropospheric humidity. Logistic models of contrail occurrence have been proposed to overcome this problem, but basic questions remain about how random measurement error may affect their accuracy. A set of 5000 synthetic contrail observations is created to study the effects of random error in these probabilistic models. The simulated observations are based on distributions of temperature, humidity, and vertical velocity derived from Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) weather analyses. The logistic models created from the simulated observations were evaluated using two common statistical measures of model accuracy, the percent correct (PC) and the Hanssen-Kuipers discriminant (HKD). To convert the probabilistic results of the logistic models into a dichotomous yes/no choice suitable for the statistical measures, two critical probability thresholds are considered. The HKD scores are higher when the climatological frequency of contrail occurrence is used as the critical threshold, while the PC scores are higher when the critical probability threshold is 0.5. For both thresholds, typical random errors in temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity are found to be small enough to allow for accurate logistic models of contrail occurrence. The accuracy of the models developed from synthetic data is over 85 percent for both the prediction of contrail occurrence and non-occurrence, although in practice, larger errors would be anticipated.

  9. On the occurrence of rainstorm damage based on home insurance and weather data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spekkers, M. H.; Clemens, F. H. L. R.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

    2015-02-01

    Rainstorm damage caused by the malfunction of urban drainage systems and water intrusion due to defects in the building envelope can be considerable. Little research on this topic focused on the collection of damage data, the understanding of damage mechanisms and the deepening of data analysis methods. In this paper, the relative contribution of different failure mechanisms to the occurrence of rainstorm damage is investigated, as well as the extent to which these mechanisms relate to weather variables. For a case study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, a property level home insurance database of around 3100 water-related damage claims was analysed. The records include comprehensive transcripts of communication between insurer, insured and damage assessment experts, which allowed claims to be classified according to their actual damage cause. The results show that roof and wall leakage is the most frequent failure mechanism causing precipitation-related claims, followed by blocked roof gutters, melting snow and sewer flooding. Claims related to sewer flooding were less present in the data, but are associated with significantly larger claim sizes than claims in the majority class, i.e. roof and wall leakages. Rare events logistic regression analysis revealed that maximum rainfall intensity and rainfall volume are significant predictors for the occurrence probability of precipitation-related claims. Moreover, it was found that claims associated with rainfall intensities smaller than 7-8 mm in a 60-min window are mainly related to failure processes in the private domain, such as roof and wall leakages. For rainfall events that exceed the 7-8 mm h-1 threshold, the failure of systems in the public domain, such as sewer systems, start to contribute considerably to the overall occurrence probability of claims. The communication transcripts, however, lacked information to be conclusive about to which extent sewer-related claims were caused by overloading of sewer systems or

  10. On the occurrence of rainstorm damage based on home insurance and weather data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Spekkers

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Rainstorm damage caused by the malfunction of urban drainage systems and water intrusion due to defects in the building envelope can be considerable. Little research on this topic focused on the collection of damage data, the understanding of damage mechanisms and the deepening of data analysis methods. In this paper, the relative contribution of different failure mechanisms to the occurrence of rainstorm damage is investigated, as well as the extent to which these mechanisms relate to weather variables. For a case study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, a property level home insurance database of around 3100 water-related damage claims was analysed. The records include comprehensive transcripts of communication between insurer, insured and damage assessment experts, which allowed claims to be classified according to their actual damage cause. The results show that roof and wall leakage is the most frequent failure mechanism causing precipitation-related claims, followed by blocked roof gutters, melting snow and sewer flooding. Claims related to sewer flooding were less present in the data, but are associated with significantly larger claim sizes than claims in the majority class, i.e. roof and wall leakages. Rare events logistic regression analysis revealed that maximum rainfall intensity and rainfall volume are significant predictors for the occurrence probability of precipitation-related claims. Moreover, it was found that claims associated with rainfall intensities smaller than 7–8 mm in a 60-min window are mainly related to failure processes in the private domain, such as roof and wall leakages. For rainfall events that exceed the 7–8 mm h−1 threshold, the failure of systems in the public domain, such as sewer systems, start to contribute considerably to the overall occurrence probability of claims. The communication transcripts, however, lacked information to be conclusive about to which extent sewer-related claims were caused by

  11. Poisson Processes in Free Probability

    OpenAIRE

    An, Guimei; Gao, Mingchu

    2015-01-01

    We prove a multidimensional Poisson limit theorem in free probability, and define joint free Poisson distributions in a non-commutative probability space. We define (compound) free Poisson process explicitly, similar to the definitions of (compound) Poisson processes in classical probability. We proved that the sum of finitely many freely independent compound free Poisson processes is a compound free Poisson processes. We give a step by step procedure for constructing a (compound) free Poisso...

  12. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  13. Towards a Formal Occurrence Logic based on Predicate Logic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badie, Farshad; Götzsche, Hans

    2015-01-01

    In this discussion we will concentrate on the main characteristics of an alternative kind of logic invented by Hans Götzsche: Occurrence Logic, which is not based on truth functionality. Our approach is based on temporal logic developed and elaborated by A. N. Prior. We will focus on characterising...... argumentation based on formal Occurrence Logic concerning events and occurrences, and illustrate the relations between Predicate Logic and Occurrence Logic. The relationships (and dependencies) is conducive to an approach that can analyse the occurrences of ”logical statements based on different logical...... principles” in different moments. We will also conclude that the elaborated Götzsche’s Occurrence Logic could be able to direct us to a truth-functional independent computer-based logic for analysing argumentation based on events and occurrences....

  14. Geospatial Analysis Application to Forecast Wildfire Occurrences in South Carolina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen L. Sperry

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Wildfire occurrence and intensity have increased over the last few decades and, at times, have been national news. Wildfire occurrence is somewhat predictable based on physical factors like meteorological conditions, fuel loads, and vegetation dynamics. Socioeconomic factors have been not been widely used in wildfire occurrence models. We used a geospatial (or geographical information system analysis approach to identify socioeconomic variables that contribute to wildfire occurrence. Key variables considered were population change, population density, poverty rate, educational level, geographic mobility, and road density (transportation network. Hot spot analysis was the primary research tool. Wildfire occurrence seemed to be positively related to low population densities, low levels of population change, high poverty rate, low educational attainment level, and low road density. Obviously, some of these variables are correlated and this is a complex problem. However, socioeconomic variables appeared to contribute to wildfire occurrence and should be considered in development of wildfire occurrence forecasting models.

  15. On Selection of the Probability Distribution for Representing the Maximum Annual Wind Speed in East Cairo, Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Shanshoury, Gh. I.; El-Hemamy, S.T.

    2013-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to identify an appropriate probability model and best plotting position formula which represent the maximum annual wind speed in east Cairo. This model can be used to estimate the extreme wind speed and return period at a particular site as well as to determine the radioactive release distribution in case of accident occurrence at a nuclear power plant. Wind speed probabilities can be estimated by using probability distributions. An accurate determination of probability distribution for maximum wind speed data is very important in expecting the extreme value . The probability plots of the maximum annual wind speed (MAWS) in east Cairo are fitted to six major statistical distributions namely: Gumbel, Weibull, Normal, Log-Normal, Logistic and Log- Logistic distribution, while eight plotting positions of Hosking and Wallis, Hazen, Gringorten, Cunnane, Blom, Filliben, Benard and Weibull are used for determining exceedance of their probabilities. A proper probability distribution for representing the MAWS is selected by the statistical test criteria in frequency analysis. Therefore, the best plotting position formula which can be used to select appropriate probability model representing the MAWS data must be determined. The statistical test criteria which represented in: the probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC), the root mean square error (RMSE), the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and the maximum absolute error (MAE) are used to select the appropriate probability position and distribution. The data obtained show that the maximum annual wind speed in east Cairo vary from 44.3 Km/h to 96.1 Km/h within duration of 39 years . Weibull plotting position combined with Normal distribution gave the highest fit, most reliable, accurate predictions and determination of the wind speed in the study area having the highest value of PPCC and lowest values of RMSE, RRMSE and MAE

  16. Foreshock occurrence before large earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reasenberg, P.A.

    1999-01-01

    Rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured in two worldwide catalogs over ???20-year intervals. The overall rates observed are similar to ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California. The aftershock model was extended to the case of moderate foreshocks preceding large mainshocks. Overall, the observed worldwide foreshock rates exceed the extended California generic model by a factor of ???2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events, a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, had a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, had a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have found low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggests the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich. If this is so, then the California generic model may significantly underestimate the conditional probability for a very large (M ??? 8) earthquake following a potential (M ??? 7) foreshock in Cascadia. The magnitude differences among the identified foreshock-mainshock pairs in the Harvard catalog are consistent with a uniform

  17. Probability inequalities for decomposition integrals

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 315, č. 1 (2017), s. 240-248 ISSN 0377-0427 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Decomposition integral * Superdecomposition integral * Probability inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 1.357, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/mesiar-0470959.pdf

  18. Expected utility with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1994-01-01

    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

  19. Invariant probabilities of transition functions

    CERN Document Server

    Zaharopol, Radu

    2014-01-01

    The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...

  20. Introduction to probability with Mathematica

    CERN Document Server

    Hastings, Kevin J

    2009-01-01

    Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...

  1. Prospect evaluation as a function of numeracy and probability denominator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millroth, Philip; Juslin, Peter

    2015-05-01

    This study examines how numeracy and probability denominator (a direct-ratio probability, a relative frequency with denominator 100, a relative frequency with denominator 10,000) affect the evaluation of prospects in an expected-value based pricing task. We expected that numeracy would affect the results due to differences in the linearity of number perception and the susceptibility to denominator neglect with different probability formats. An analysis with functional measurement verified that participants integrated value and probability into an expected value. However, a significant interaction between numeracy and probability format and subsequent analyses of the parameters of cumulative prospect theory showed that the manipulation of probability denominator changed participants' psychophysical response to probability and value. Standard methods in decision research may thus confound people's genuine risk attitude with their numerical capacities and the probability format used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Driving factors for torrential mass-movements occurrence in the Western Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davide eTiranti

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available To understand the behaviour of torrential processes in the alpine environment, the conditions mainly responsiblefor the occurrence of these phenomena have to be identified and distinguished(classified aspredisposing and triggering factors. In this regard, this study is aimed to understanding which factors lead to the occurrence of a given torrential processes in alpine catchments in the Western Alps, where information on past events are exhaustive and characterized by a long historical series. More than 769 documented torrential eventsoccurred from 1728 to 2015 within 78 catchments. Datasets concerning climate, geology and morphology, land use and the presence of historical landslide activity have been elaborated as input for multivariate statistical analysis to characterize the behaviour of the catchments. The results pinpoint the factors that mainly drive the type of torrential dominant process occurring in a given catchment, its occurrence probability, and its frequency. This study has demonstrated that catchments characterized by a significant percentage of outcropping rocks show a greater occurrence of torrential processes, especially hyperconcentrated flows and debris flows; on the contrary highly vegetated catchments are typically subject to water flows. This result can be a useful tool for the evaluation of hazards related to this specific phenomenon, making it possible to predict the most likely torrential processes that can be generated in a specific basin, given the characteristics of outcropping rock and vegetation cover.

  3. Disability occurrence and proximity to death

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Kunst, Anton E.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose. This paper aims to assess whether disability occurrence is related more strongly to proximity to death than to age. Method. Self reported disability and vital status were available from six annual waves and a subsequent 12-year mortality follow-up of the Dutch GLOBE longitudinal study.

  4. Pyrrolizidine alkaloids: occurrence, biology, and chemical synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Jeremy; Stevens, Kiri

    2017-01-04

    Covering: 2013 up to the end of 2015This review covers the isolation and structure of new pyrrolizidines; pyrrolizidine biosynthesis; biological activity, including the occurrence of pyrrolizidines as toxic components or contaminants in foods and beverages; and formal and total syntheses of naturally-occurring pyrrolizidine alkaloids and closely related non-natural analogues.

  5. K-forbidden transition probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saitoh, T.R.; Sletten, G.; Bark, R.A.; Hagemann, G.B.; Herskind, B.; Saitoh-Hashimoto, N.; Tsukuba Univ., Ibaraki

    2000-01-01

    Reduced hindrance factors of K-forbidden transitions are compiled for nuclei with A∝180 where γ-vibrational states are observed. Correlations between these reduced hindrance factors and Coriolis forces, statistical level mixing and γ-softness have been studied. It is demonstrated that the K-forbidden transition probabilities are related to γ-softness. The decay of the high-K bandheads has been studied by means of the two-state mixing, which would be induced by the γ-softness, with the use of a number of K-forbidden transitions compiled in the present work, where high-K bandheads are depopulated by both E2 and ΔI=1 transitions. The validity of the two-state mixing scheme has been examined by using the proposed identity of the B(M1)/B(E2) ratios of transitions depopulating high-K bandheads and levels of low-K bands. A break down of the identity might indicate that other levels would mediate transitions between high- and low-K states. (orig.)

  6. Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

    2011-01-01

    Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

  7. Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandy, W. T. Jr.

    2009-01-01

    In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.

  8. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Diurnal and seasonal occurrence of polar patches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Rodger

    1996-05-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of the diurnal and seasonal variation of polar patches, as identified in two years of HF-radar data from Halley, Antarctica during a period near sunspot maximum, shows that there is a broad maximum in occurrence centred about magnetic noon, not local noon. There are minima in occurrence near midsummer and midwinter, with maxima in occurrence between equinox and winter. There are no significant correlations between the occurrence of polar patches and the corresponding hourly averages of the solar wind and IMF parameters, except that patches usually occur when the interplanetary magnetic field has a southward component. The results can be understood in terms of UT and seasonal differences in the plasma concentration being convected from the dayside ionosphere into the polar cap. In summer and winter the electron concentrations in the polar cap are high and low, respectively, but relatively unstructured. About equinox, a tongue of enhanced ionisation is convected into the polar cap; this tongue is then structured by the effects of the interplanetary magnetic field, but these Halley data cannot be used to separate the various competing mechanisms for patch formation. The observed diurnal and seasonal variation in the occurrence of polar patches are largely consistent with predictions of Sojka et al. (1994 when their results are translated into the southern hemisphere. However, the ionospheric effects of flux transfer events are still considered essential in their formation, a feature not yet included in the Sojka et al. model.

  10. Probability with applications and R

    CERN Document Server

    Dobrow, Robert P

    2013-01-01

    An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c

  11. A philosophical essay on probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Laplace, Marquis de

    1996-01-01

    A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application

  12. Low levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D are associated with the occurrence of concomitant upper limb fractures in older women who sustain a fall-related fracture of the hip.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Monaco, Marco; Vallero, Fulvia; Castiglioni, Carlotta; Di Monaco, Roberto; Tappero, Rosa

    2011-01-01

    To investigate the association between serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D and the occurrence of simultaneous fractures of the upper limb in older women who sustain a fall-related fracture of the hip. Cross-sectional study. We investigated 472 of 480 white women consecutively admitted to a rehabilitation hospital because of a fall-related hip fracture. Twenty-seven (5.7%) of the 472 women sustained a concomitant upper-limb fracture of either distal radius (20 women) or proximal humerus (seven women). We assessed serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D 14.2 ± 4.1 (mean ± SD) days after surgical repair of the hip fracture in the 472 women by an immunoenzymatic assay. Twenty-five-hydroxyvitamin D levels were significantly lower in the 27 women with concomitant fractures of both hip and upper limb than in the remaining 445 hip-fracture women: mean ± SD values were 6.5 ± 5.0 ng/ml and 11.7 ± 10.4 ng/ml respectively in the two groups (mean difference between groups 5.2 ng/ml: 95% CI 1.2-9.2; p=0.011). Low levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D were significantly associated with concomitant fractures of the upper limb (p=0.017), after adjustment for eight potential confounders including age, height, weight, hip-fracture type, cognitive impairment, neurologic impairment, previous hip fracture, and previous upper-limb fracture. Low levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D were significantly associated with concomitant upper-limb fractures in our sample of older women with a fall-related fracture of the hip. Preventing vitamin D deficiency may lower the incidence of simultaneous fractures due to a singe fall in elderly women. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Error probabilities in default Bayesian hypothesis testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gu, Xin; Hoijtink, Herbert; Mulder, J,

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the classical type I and type II error probabilities of default Bayes factors for a Bayesian t test. Default Bayes factors quantify the relative evidence between the null hypothesis and the unrestricted alternative hypothesis without needing to specify prior distributions for

  14. Pade approximant calculations for neutron escape probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Wakil, S.A.; Saad, E.A.; Hendi, A.A.

    1984-07-01

    The neutron escape probability from a non-multiplying slab containing internal source is defined in terms of a functional relation for the scattering function for the diffuse reflection problem. The Pade approximant technique is used to get numerical results which compare with exact results. (author)

  15. On a paradox of probability theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Costa de Beauregard's proposal concerning physical retrocausality has been shown to fail on two crucial points. However, it is argued that his proposal still merits serious attention. The argument arises from showing that his proposal reveals a paradox involving relations between conditional probabilities, statistical correlations and reciprocal causalities of the type exhibited by cooperative dynamics in physical systems. 4 refs. (Author)

  16. Assigning probability gain for precursors of four large Chinese earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao, T.; Aki, K.

    1983-03-10

    We extend the concept of probability gain associated with a precursor (Aki, 1981) to a set of precursors which may be mutually dependent. Making use of a new formula, we derive a criterion for selecting precursors from a given data set in order to calculate the probability gain. The probabilities per unit time immediately before four large Chinese earthquakes are calculated. They are approximately 0.09, 0.09, 0.07 and 0.08 per day for 1975 Haicheng (M = 7.3), 1976 Tangshan (M = 7.8), 1976 Longling (M = 7.6), and Songpan (M = 7.2) earthquakes, respectively. These results are encouraging because they suggest that the investigated precursory phenomena may have included the complete information for earthquake prediction, at least for the above earthquakes. With this method, the step-by-step approach to prediction used in China may be quantified in terms of the probability of earthquake occurrence. The ln P versus t curve (where P is the probability of earthquake occurrence at time t) shows that ln P does not increase with t linearly but more rapidly as the time of earthquake approaches.

  17. Quantitative estimation of the human error probability during soft control operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seung Jun; Kim, Jaewhan; Jung, Wondea

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► An HRA method to evaluate execution HEP for soft control operations was proposed. ► The soft control tasks were analyzed and design-related influencing factors were identified. ► An application to evaluate the effects of soft controls was performed. - Abstract: In this work, a method was proposed for quantifying human errors that can occur during operation executions using soft controls. Soft controls of advanced main control rooms have totally different features from conventional controls, and thus they may have different human error modes and occurrence probabilities. It is important to identify the human error modes and quantify the error probability for evaluating the reliability of the system and preventing errors. This work suggests an evaluation framework for quantifying the execution error probability using soft controls. In the application result, it was observed that the human error probabilities of soft controls showed both positive and negative results compared to the conventional controls according to the design quality of advanced main control rooms

  18. Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

    2015-04-01

    This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Introduction to probability and measure

    CERN Document Server

    Parthasarathy, K R

    2005-01-01

    According to a remark attributed to Mark Kac 'Probability Theory is a measure theory with a soul'. This book with its choice of proofs, remarks, examples and exercises has been prepared taking both these aesthetic and practical aspects into account.

  20. Activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex signals the accumulation of evidence in a probability learning task.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathieu d'Acremont

    Full Text Available In an uncertain environment, probabilities are key to predicting future events and making adaptive choices. However, little is known about how humans learn such probabilities and where and how they are encoded in the brain, especially when they concern more than two outcomes. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, young adults learned the probabilities of uncertain stimuli through repetitive sampling. Stimuli represented payoffs and participants had to predict their occurrence to maximize their earnings. Choices indicated loss and risk aversion but unbiased estimation of probabilities. BOLD response in medial prefrontal cortex and angular gyri increased linearly with the probability of the currently observed stimulus, untainted by its value. Connectivity analyses during rest and task revealed that these regions belonged to the default mode network. The activation of past outcomes in memory is evoked as a possible mechanism to explain the engagement of the default mode network in probability learning. A BOLD response relating to value was detected only at decision time, mainly in striatum. It is concluded that activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex reflects the amount of evidence accumulated in favor of competing and uncertain outcomes.

  1. Path probabilities of continuous time random walks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eule, Stephan; Friedrich, Rudolf

    2014-01-01

    Employing the path integral formulation of a broad class of anomalous diffusion processes, we derive the exact relations for the path probability densities of these processes. In particular, we obtain a closed analytical solution for the path probability distribution of a Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) process. This solution is given in terms of its waiting time distribution and short time propagator of the corresponding random walk as a solution of a Dyson equation. Applying our analytical solution we derive generalized Feynman–Kac formulae. (paper)

  2. Probable Gastrointestinal Toxicity of Kombucha Tea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, Radhika; Smolinske, Susan; Greenbaum, David

    1997-01-01

    Kombucha tea is a health beverage made by incubating the Kombucha “mushroom” in tea and sugar. Although therapeutic benefits have been attributed to the drink, neither its beneficial effects nor adverse side effects have been reported widely in the scientific literature. Side effects probably related to consumption of Kombucha tea are reported in four patients. Two presented with symptoms of allergic reaction, the third with jaundice, and the fourth with nausea, vomiting, and head and neck pain. In all four, use of Kombucha tea in proximity to onset of symptoms and symptom resolution on cessation of tea drinking suggest a probable etiologic association. PMID:9346462

  3. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acacio de Barros, J.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  4. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acacio de Barros, J. [Liberal Studies, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)

    2012-12-18

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  5. The Probabilities of Unique Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    Washington, DC USA Max Lotstein and Phil Johnson-Laird Department of Psychology Princeton University Princeton, NJ USA August 30th 2012...social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. The participants ranked the probability that Linda is a feminist bank teller as...retorted that such a flagrant violation of the probability calculus was a result of a psychological experiment that obscured the rationality of the

  6. Probability Matching, Fast and Slow

    OpenAIRE

    Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta

    2014-01-01

    A prominent point of contention among researchers regarding the interpretation of probability-matching behavior is whether it represents a cognitively sophisticated, adaptive response to the inherent uncertainty of the tasks or settings in which it is observed, or whether instead it represents a fundamental shortcoming in the heuristics that support and guide human decision making. Put crudely, researchers disagree on whether probability matching is "smart" or "dumb." Here, we consider eviden...

  7. Uncertainty the soul of modeling, probability & statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Briggs, William

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance". The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, suc...

  8. Correlations and Non-Linear Probability Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breen, Richard; Holm, Anders; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2014-01-01

    the dependent variable of the latent variable model and its predictor variables. We show how this correlation can be derived from the parameters of non-linear probability models, develop tests for the statistical significance of the derived correlation, and illustrate its usefulness in two applications. Under......Although the parameters of logit and probit and other non-linear probability models are often explained and interpreted in relation to the regression coefficients of an underlying linear latent variable model, we argue that they may also be usefully interpreted in terms of the correlations between...... certain circumstances, which we explain, the derived correlation provides a way of overcoming the problems inherent in cross-sample comparisons of the parameters of non-linear probability models....

  9. Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Dworsky, Lawrence N

    2008-01-01

    An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

  10. Prediction suppression in monkey inferotemporal cortex depends on the conditional probability between images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, Suchitra; Meyer, Travis; Olson, Carl R

    2016-01-01

    When monkeys view two images in fixed sequence repeatedly over days and weeks, neurons in area TE of the inferotemporal cortex come to exhibit prediction suppression. The trailing image elicits only a weak response when presented following the leading image that preceded it during training. Induction of prediction suppression might depend either on the contiguity of the images, as determined by their co-occurrence and captured in the measure of joint probability P(A,B), or on their contingency, as determined by their correlation and as captured in the measures of conditional probability P(A|B) and P(B|A). To distinguish between these possibilities, we measured prediction suppression after imposing training regimens that held P(A,B) constant but varied P(A|B) and P(B|A). We found that reducing either P(A|B) or P(B|A) during training attenuated prediction suppression as measured during subsequent testing. We conclude that prediction suppression depends on contingency, as embodied in the predictive relations between the images, and not just on contiguity, as embodied in their co-occurrence. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

  11. Risk analysis of first and last frost occurrences in central Alborz region, Iran

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahimi, M.; Khalili, A.; Hajjam, S.; Kamali, G.A.; Stigter, C.J.

    2007-01-01

    Central Alborz is one of the important agricultural regions of Iran. Occurrence of the first frost in fall and the last frost in spring causes damage to the crops in this region every year. Information about the probable dates of frost occurrence helps farmers in preventing or reducing the damages

  12. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  13. Approximation methods in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Čekanavičius, Vydas

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.

  14. Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)

    2002-01-01

    When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.

  15. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Olofsson, Peter

    2011-01-01

    A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d

  16. Statistical probability tables CALENDF program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribon, P.

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of the probability tables is: - to obtain dense data representation - to calculate integrals by quadratures. They are mainly used in the USA for calculations by Monte Carlo and in the USSR and Europe for self-shielding calculations by the sub-group method. The moment probability tables, in addition to providing a more substantial mathematical basis and calculation methods, are adapted for condensation and mixture calculations, which are the crucial operations for reactor physics specialists. However, their extension is limited by the statistical hypothesis they imply. Efforts are being made to remove this obstacle, at the cost, it must be said, of greater complexity

  17. Probability, statistics, and queueing theory

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Arnold O

    1990-01-01

    This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit

  18. Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits...... in these respects. Interviews with Nick Bingham, Luc Bovens, Terrence L. Fine, Haim Gaifman, Donald Gillies, James Hawthorne, Carl Hoefer, James M. Joyce, Joseph B. Kadane Isaac Levi, D.H. Mellor, Patrick Suppes, Jan von Plato, Carl Wagner, Sandy Zabell...

  19. Social decision-making for high consequence, low probability occurrences. Final report 1975-77

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-10-01

    Part I reviews the two main classes of criteria proposed for social decisions: (1) market mechanisms and cost-benefit analysis and (2) the approaches of Rawls and Buchanan to arrive at a social consensus. The authors propose an eight element criteria for evaluating a social decision process capable of application in judicial, legislative, academic, and managerial situations. Parts II and III are case studies of different decision procedures. The former inspects the administrative law procedure using the U.S. EPA chlordane/heptachlor suspension hearings for example. The legal procedure is concluded to be a forward-looking decision process in an effort to increase social acceptability of the outcome. The latter examines the disjointed decision procedure concerning the disposal of nuclear waste. In both cases the eight criteria proposed in Part I nevertheless provide a useful tool for evaluating the process

  20. The probability of flooding wave occurrence and the vulnerability of the Kosovo territory settlements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valjarević Aleksandar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The work displays the presumed laws of flooding waves which would occur if the 1976 situation when the great floods in Kosovo happened reoccurred again. On a 1:300000 multilayer map of Kosovo and Metohia, there are areas which would have been flooded in case of a maximum flooding wave, and what is also shown is the areas which were covered in water as the average was measured, including the areas used as projects of minimal flooding wave value. There is a layer showing the points with regular flood defense, including the places where protection needs to establish. The map includes the ratio of 1:300000, whilst the areas are calculated with the help of processing their dynamic static’s, as well as using the formulae Gumbel Distribution and Weibull Formula. The data have been calculated with their maximum value, including the average and the minimum of flooding period embracing the time of 40 years. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III44006 i br. 176019

  1. Occurrence of Wounds in Nigerian Horses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agina, Onyinyechukwu A; Ihedioha, John I

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated the occurrence of wounds in Nigerian horses. The study population was 1,621 horses sold at the Obollo Afor horse lairage in Enugu State, Nigeria, during a 6-month period: 3 months of dry season and 3 months of rainy season (February-April and June-August 2012). A total of 207 horses were systematically sampled and subjected to a comprehensive physical examination. Those with wounds were marked, recorded, and clinically examined. Of the 207 horses sampled, 21 (10.1%) had wounds. The body distribution of the wounds was 9.5% head, 9.5% forelimbs, 19.1% hind limbs, 4.8% tail, 14.3% flank, 9.5% loin, 19.1% hip, 9.5% barrel, and 4.8% croup. The occurrence of the wounds was not significantly associated with sex or season, but the occurrence in adults was significantly (p horses. It was concluded that the occurrence of wounds is relatively high (10.1%), and mainly the hind limbs, hip, and flank of adult horses are affected. It was recommended that horse guardians and handlers should be properly educated on the care of horses.

  2. Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

    2015-10-01

    The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

  3. Conditional Independence in Applied Probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, Paul E.

    This material assumes the user has the background provided by a good undergraduate course in applied probability. It is felt that introductory courses in calculus, linear algebra, and perhaps some differential equations should provide the requisite experience and proficiency with mathematical concepts, notation, and argument. The document is…

  4. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  5. GPS: Geometry, Probability, and Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Mike

    2012-01-01

    It might be said that for most occupations there is now less of a need for mathematics than there was say fifty years ago. But, the author argues, geometry, probability, and statistics constitute essential knowledge for everyone. Maybe not the geometry of Euclid, but certainly geometrical ways of thinking that might enable us to describe the world…

  6. DECOFF Probabilities of Failed Operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas

    2015-01-01

    A statistical procedure of estimation of Probabilities of Failed Operations is described and exemplified using ECMWF weather forecasts and SIMO output from Rotor Lift test case models. Also safety factor influence is investigated. DECOFF statistical method is benchmarked against standard Alpha-factor...

  7. Risk estimation using probability machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  8. Probability and statistics: A reminder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clement, B.

    2013-01-01

    The main purpose of these lectures is to provide the reader with the tools needed to data analysis in the framework of physics experiments. Basic concepts are introduced together with examples of application in experimental physics. The lecture is divided into two parts: probability and statistics. It is build on the introduction from 'data analysis in experimental sciences' given in [1]. (authors)

  9. Nash equilibrium with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groes, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1998-01-01

    We generalize the concept of Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies for strategic form games to allow for ambiguity in the players' expectations. In contrast to other contributions, we model ambiguity by means of so-called lower probability measures or belief functions, which makes it possible...

  10. On probability-possibility transformations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klir, George J.; Parviz, Behzad

    1992-01-01

    Several probability-possibility transformations are compared in terms of the closeness of preserving second-order properties. The comparison is based on experimental results obtained by computer simulation. Two second-order properties are involved in this study: noninteraction of two distributions and projections of a joint distribution.

  11. Dependent Human Error Probability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.; Vukovic, I.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of the dependence between dynamic operator actions modeled in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) PRA and estimate the associated impact on Core damage frequency (CDF). This assessment was done improve HEP dependencies implementation inside existing PRA. All of the dynamic operator actions modeled in the NPP PRA are included in this assessment. Determining the level of HEP dependence and the associated influence on CDF are the major steps of this assessment. A decision on how to apply the results, i.e., should permanent HEP model changes be made, is based on the resulting relative CDF increase. Some CDF increase was selected as a threshold based on the NPP base CDF value and acceptance guidelines from the Regulatory Guide 1.174. HEP dependence resulting in a CDF increase of > 5E-07 would be considered potential candidates for specific incorporation into the baseline model. The approach used to judge the level of dependence between operator actions is based on dependency level categories and conditional probabilities developed in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications NUREG/CR-1278. To simplify the process, NUREG/CR-1278 identifies five levels of dependence: ZD (zero dependence), LD (low dependence), MD (moderate dependence), HD (high dependence), and CD (complete dependence). NUREG/CR-1278 also identifies several qualitative factors that could be involved in determining the level of dependence. Based on the NUREG/CR-1278 information, Time, Function, and Spatial attributes were judged to be the most important considerations when determining the level of dependence between operator actions within an accident sequence. These attributes were used to develop qualitative criteria (rules) that were used to judge the level of dependence (CD, HD, MD, LD, ZD) between the operator actions. After the level of dependence between the various HEPs is judged, quantitative values associated with the

  12. Probability theory versus simulation of petroleum potential in play analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crovelli, R.A.

    1987-01-01

    An analytic probabilistic methodology for resource appraisal of undiscovered oil and gas resources in play analysis is presented. This play-analysis methodology is a geostochastic system for petroleum resource appraisal in explored as well as frontier areas. An objective was to replace an existing Monte Carlo simulation method in order to increase the efficiency of the appraisal process. Underlying the two methods is a single geologic model which considers both the uncertainty of the presence of the assessed hydrocarbon and its amount if present. The results of the model are resource estimates of crude oil, nonassociated gas, dissolved gas, and gas for a geologic play in terms of probability distributions. The analytic method is based upon conditional probability theory and a closed form solution of all means and standard deviations, along with the probabilities of occurrence. ?? 1987 J.C. Baltzer A.G., Scientific Publishing Company.

  13. Failure probability of PWR reactor coolant loop piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lo, T.; Woo, H.H.; Holman, G.S.; Chou, C.K.

    1984-02-01

    This paper describes the results of assessments performed on the PWR coolant loop piping of Westinghouse and Combustion Engineering plants. For direct double-ended guillotine break (DEGB), consideration was given to crack existence probability, initial crack size distribution, hydrostatic proof test, preservice inspection, leak detection probability, crack growth characteristics, and failure criteria based on the net section stress failure and tearing modulus stability concept. For indirect DEGB, fragilities of major component supports were estimated. The system level fragility was then calculated based on the Boolean expression involving these fragilities. Indirect DEGB due to seismic effects was calculated by convolving the system level fragility and the seismic hazard curve. The results indicate that the probability of occurrence of both direct and indirect DEGB is extremely small, thus, postulation of DEGB in design should be eliminated and replaced by more realistic criteria

  14. Fire occurrence prediction in the Mediterranean: Application to Southern France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papakosta, Panagiota; Öster, Jan; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel

    2013-04-01

    The areas that extend in the Mediterranean basin have a long fire history. The climatic conditions of wet winters and long hot drying summers support seasonal fire events, mainly ignited by humans. Extended land fragmentation hinders fire spread, but seasonal winds (e.g. Mistral in South France or Meltemia in Greece) can drive fire events to become uncontrollable fires with severe impacts to humans and the environment [1]. Prediction models in these areas should incorporate both natural and anthropogenic factors. Several indices have been developed worldwide to express fire weather conditions. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is currently adapted by many countries in Europe due to the easily observable input weather parameters (temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, precipitation) and the easy-to-implement algorithms of the Canadian formulation describing fuel moisture relations [2],[3]. Human influence can be expressed directly by human presence (e.g. population density) or indirectly by proxy indicators (e.g. street density [4], land cover type). The random nature of fire occurrences and the uncertainties associated with the influencing factors motivate probabilistic prediction models. The aim of this study is to develop a prediction model of fire occurrence probability under natural and anthropogenic influence in Southern France and to compare it with earlier developed predictions in other Mediterranean areas [5]. Fire occurrence is modeled as a Poisson process. Two interpolation methods (Kriging and Inverse Distance Weighting) are used to interpolate daily weather observations from weather stations to a 1 km² spatial grid and their results are compared. Poisson regression estimates the parameters of the model and the resulting daily predictions are provided in terms of maps displaying fire occurrence rates. The model is applied to the regions Provence-Alpes-Côtes D'Azur und Languedoc-Roussillon in the South of France. Weather data are obtained from

  15. PSA, subjective probability and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarotti, C.A.

    1989-01-01

    PSA is the natural way to making decisions in face of uncertainty relative to potentially dangerous plants; subjective probability, subjective utility and Bayes statistics are the ideal tools for carrying out a PSA. This paper reports that in order to support this statement the various stages of the PSA procedure are examined in detail and step by step the superiority of Bayes techniques with respect to sampling theory machinery is proven

  16. Absolute transition probabilities for 559 strong lines of neutral cerium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, J J, E-mail: jjcurry@nist.go [National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD 20899-8422 (United States)

    2009-07-07

    Absolute radiative transition probabilities are reported for 559 strong lines of neutral cerium covering the wavelength range 340-880 nm. These transition probabilities are obtained by scaling published relative line intensities (Meggers et al 1975 Tables of Spectral Line Intensities (National Bureau of Standards Monograph 145)) with a smaller set of published absolute transition probabilities (Bisson et al 1991 J. Opt. Soc. Am. B 8 1545). All 559 new values are for lines for which transition probabilities have not previously been available. The estimated relative random uncertainty of the new data is +-35% for nearly all lines.

  17. Quantum processes: probability fluxes, transition probabilities in unit time and vacuum vibrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oleinik, V.P.; Arepjev, Ju D.

    1989-01-01

    Transition probabilities in unit time and probability fluxes are compared in studying the elementary quantum processes -the decay of a bound state under the action of time-varying and constant electric fields. It is shown that the difference between these quantities may be considerable, and so the use of transition probabilities W instead of probability fluxes Π, in calculating the particle fluxes, may lead to serious errors. The quantity W represents the rate of change with time of the population of the energy levels relating partly to the real states and partly to the virtual ones, and it cannot be directly measured in experiment. The vacuum background is shown to be continuously distorted when a perturbation acts on a system. Because of this the viewpoint of an observer on the physical properties of real particles continuously varies with time. This fact is not taken into consideration in the conventional theory of quantum transitions based on using the notion of probability amplitude. As a result, the probability amplitudes lose their physical meaning. All the physical information on quantum dynamics of a system is contained in the mean values of physical quantities. The existence of considerable differences between the quantities W and Π permits one in principle to make a choice of the correct theory of quantum transitions on the basis of experimental data. (author)

  18. Developing a Mathematical Model for Scheduling and Determining Success Probability of Research Projects Considering Complex-Fuzzy Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gholamreza Norouzi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In project management context, time management is one of the most important factors affecting project success. This paper proposes a new method to solve research project scheduling problems (RPSP containing Fuzzy Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (FGERT networks. Through the deliverables of this method, a proper estimation of project completion time (PCT and success probability can be achieved. So algorithms were developed to cover all features of the problem based on three main parameters “duration, occurrence probability, and success probability.” These developed algorithms were known as PR-FGERT (Parallel and Reversible-Fuzzy GERT networks. The main provided framework includes simplifying the network of project and taking regular steps to determine PCT and success probability. Simplifications include (1 equivalent making of parallel and series branches in fuzzy network considering the concepts of probabilistic nodes, (2 equivalent making of delay or reversible-to-itself branches and impact of changing the parameters of time and probability based on removing related branches, (3 equivalent making of simple and complex loops, and (4 an algorithm that was provided to resolve no-loop fuzzy network, after equivalent making. Finally, the performance of models was compared with existing methods. The results showed proper and real performance of models in comparison with existing methods.

  19. Computational results on the compound binomial risk model with nonhomogeneous claim occurrences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tuncel, A.; Tank, F.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to give a recursive formula for non-ruin (survival) probability when the claim occurrences are nonhomogeneous in the compound binomial risk model. We give recursive formulas for non-ruin (survival) probability and for distribution of the total number of claims under the

  20. Probability densities and the radon variable transformation theorem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramshaw, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    D. T. Gillespie recently derived a random variable transformation theorem relating to the joint probability densities of functionally dependent sets of random variables. The present author points out that the theorem can be derived as an immediate corollary of a simpler and more fundamental relation. In this relation the probability density is represented as a delta function averaged over an unspecified distribution of unspecified internal random variables. The random variable transformation is derived from this relation

  1. Large deviations and idempotent probability

    CERN Document Server

    Puhalskii, Anatolii

    2001-01-01

    In the view of many probabilists, author Anatolii Puhalskii''s research results stand among the most significant achievements in the modern theory of large deviations. In fact, his work marked a turning point in the depth of our understanding of the connections between the large deviation principle (LDP) and well-known methods for establishing weak convergence results.Large Deviations and Idempotent Probability expounds upon the recent methodology of building large deviation theory along the lines of weak convergence theory. The author develops an idempotent (or maxitive) probability theory, introduces idempotent analogues of martingales (maxingales), Wiener and Poisson processes, and Ito differential equations, and studies their properties. The large deviation principle for stochastic processes is formulated as a certain type of convergence of stochastic processes to idempotent processes. The author calls this large deviation convergence.The approach to establishing large deviation convergence uses novel com...

  2. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  3. Probability matching and strategy availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Derek J; James, Greta

    2010-09-01

    Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought to their attention, more participants subsequently engage in maximizing. Third, matchers are more likely than maximizers to base decisions in other tasks on their initial intuitions, suggesting that they are more inclined to use a choice strategy that comes to mind quickly. These results indicate that a substantial subset of probability matchers are victims of "underthinking" rather than "overthinking": They fail to engage in sufficient deliberation to generate a superior alternative to the matching strategy that comes so readily to mind.

  4. Probability as a Physical Motive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Martin

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent theoretical progress in nonequilibrium thermodynamics, linking thephysical principle of Maximum Entropy Production (“MEP” to the information-theoretical“MaxEnt” principle of scientific inference, together with conjectures from theoreticalphysics that there may be no fundamental causal laws but only probabilities for physicalprocesses, and from evolutionary theory that biological systems expand “the adjacentpossible” as rapidly as possible, all lend credence to the proposition that probability shouldbe recognized as a fundamental physical motive. It is further proposed that spatial order andtemporal order are two aspects of the same thing, and that this is the essence of the secondlaw of thermodynamics.

  5. Logic, Probability, and Human Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. The nature of deductive reasoning To be rational is to be able to make deductions...3–6] and they underlie mathematics, science, and tech- nology [7–10]. Plato claimed that emotions upset reason- ing. However, individuals in the grip...fundamental to human rationality . So, if counterexamples to its principal predictions occur, the theory will at least explain its own refutation

  6. Probability Measures on Groups IX

    CERN Document Server

    1989-01-01

    The latest in this series of Oberwolfach conferences focussed on the interplay between structural probability theory and various other areas of pure and applied mathematics such as Tauberian theory, infinite-dimensional rotation groups, central limit theorems, harmonizable processes, and spherical data. Thus it was attended by mathematicians whose research interests range from number theory to quantum physics in conjunction with structural properties of probabilistic phenomena. This volume contains 5 survey articles submitted on special invitation and 25 original research papers.

  7. Probability matching and strategy availability

    OpenAIRE

    J. Koehler, Derek; Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta

    2010-01-01

    Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought...

  8. Dengue occurrence relations and serology: cross-sectional analysis of results from the Guerrero State, Mexico, baseline for a cluster-randomised controlled trial of community mobilisation for dengue prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nava-Aguilera, Elizabeth; Morales-Pérez, Arcadio; Balanzar-Martínez, Alejandro; Rodríguez-Ramírez, Ofelia; Jiménez-Alejo, Abel; Flores-Moreno, Miguel; Gasga-Salinas, David; Legorreta-Soberanis, José; Paredes-Solís, Sergio; Morales-Nava, Pedro Antonio; de Lourdes Soto-Ríos, María; Ledogar, Robert J; Coloma, Joséfina; Harris, Eva; Andersson, Neil

    2017-05-30

    community leadership and the relatively low rates of self-reported dengue illness were challenges that the Mexican intervention team had to overcome. The higher dengue illness occurrence among women in Costa Grande and Costa Chica may help explain why women participated more than men in activities during the Camino Verde trial.

  9. Establishment probability in newly founded populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gusset Markus

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Establishment success in newly founded populations relies on reaching the established phase, which is defined by characteristic fluctuations of the population’s state variables. Stochastic population models can be used to quantify the establishment probability of newly founded populations; however, so far no simple but robust method for doing so existed. To determine a critical initial number of individuals that need to be released to reach the established phase, we used a novel application of the “Wissel plot”, where –ln(1 – P0(t is plotted against time t. This plot is based on the equation P0t=1–c1e–ω1t, which relates the probability of extinction by time t, P0(t, to two constants: c1 describes the probability of a newly founded population to reach the established phase, whereas ω1 describes the population’s probability of extinction per short time interval once established. Results For illustration, we applied the method to a previously developed stochastic population model of the endangered African wild dog (Lycaon pictus. A newly founded population reaches the established phase if the intercept of the (extrapolated linear parts of the “Wissel plot” with the y-axis, which is –ln(c1, is negative. For wild dogs in our model, this is the case if a critical initial number of four packs, consisting of eight individuals each, are released. Conclusions The method we present to quantify the establishment probability of newly founded populations is generic and inferences thus are transferable to other systems across the field of conservation biology. In contrast to other methods, our approach disaggregates the components of a population’s viability by distinguishing establishment from persistence.

  10. Effects of Potential Lane-Changing Probability on Uniform Flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Tieqiao; Huang Haijun; Shang Huayan

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we use the car-following model with the anticipation effect of the potential lane-changing probability (Acta Mech. Sin. 24 (2008) 399) to investigate the effects of the potential lane-changing probability on uniform flow. The analytical and numerical results show that the potential lane-changing probability can enhance the speed and flow of uniform flow and that their increments are related to the density.

  11. Crossing seas and occurrence of rogue waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitner-Gregersen, Elzbieta; Toffoli, Alessandro

    2017-04-01

    The study is addressing crossing wave systems which may lead to formation of rogue waves. Onorato et al. (2006, 2010) have shown using the Nonlinear Schr?dringer (NLS) equations that the modulational instability and rogue waves can be triggered by a peculiar form of directional sea state, where two identical, crossing, narrow-banded random wave systems interact with each other. Such results have been underpinned by numerical simulations of the Euler equations solved with a Higher Order Spectral Method (HOSM) and experimental observations (Toffoli et al., 2011). They substantiate a dependence of the angle between the mean directions of propagation of the two crossing wave systems, with a maximum rogue wave probability for angles of approximately 40 degrees. Such an unusual sea state of two almost identical wave systems (approximately the same significant wave height and mean frequency) with high steepness and different directions was observed during the accident to the cruise ship Louis Majesty (Cavaleri et al. 2012). Occurrence of wind sea and swell having almost the same spectral period and significant wave height and crossing at the angle 40o low and intermediate wave conditions. They have not been found in a location off coast of Australia and Nigeria. There are some indications that in the future climate we may expect an increase number of occurrence of rogue-prone crossing sea states in some ocean regions An adopted partitioning procedure of a wave spectrum will impact the results. References Bitner-Gregersen, E.M. and Toffoli, A., 2014. Probability of occurrence of rogue sea states and consequences for design of marine structures. Special Issue of Ocean Dynamics, ISSN 1616-7341, 64(10), DOI 10.1007/s10236-014-0753-2. Cavaleri, L., Bertotti, L., Torrisi, L. Bitner-Gregersen, E., Serio, M. and Onorato, M., 2012. Rogue Waves in Crossing Seas: The Louis Majesty accident. J. Geophysical Research, 117, C00J10, doi:10.1029/2012JC007923 Onorato, M., A. Osborne, A

  12. Using Co-Occurrence to Evaluate Belief Coherence in a Large Non Clinical Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pechey, Rachel; Halligan, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Much of the recent neuropsychological literature on false beliefs (delusions) has tended to focus on individual or single beliefs, with few studies actually investigating the relationship or co-occurrence between different types of co-existing beliefs. Quine and Ullian proposed the hypothesis that our beliefs form an interconnected web in which the beliefs that make up that system must somehow “cohere” with one another and avoid cognitive dissonance. As such beliefs are unlikely to be encapsulated (i.e., exist in isolation from other beliefs). The aim of this preliminary study was to empirically evaluate the probability of belief co-occurrence as one indicator of coherence in a large sample of subjects involving three different thematic sets of beliefs (delusion-like, paranormal & religious, and societal/cultural). Results showed that the degree of belief co-endorsement between beliefs within thematic groupings was greater than random occurrence, lending support to Quine and Ullian’s coherentist account. Some associations, however, were relatively weak, providing for well-established examples of cognitive dissonance. PMID:23155383

  13. Using co-occurrence to evaluate belief coherence in a large non clinical sample.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Pechey

    Full Text Available Much of the recent neuropsychological literature on false beliefs (delusions has tended to focus on individual or single beliefs, with few studies actually investigating the relationship or co-occurrence between different types of co-existing beliefs. Quine and Ullian proposed the hypothesis that our beliefs form an interconnected web in which the beliefs that make up that system must somehow "cohere" with one another and avoid cognitive dissonance. As such beliefs are unlikely to be encapsulated (i.e., exist in isolation from other beliefs. The aim of this preliminary study was to empirically evaluate the probability of belief co-occurrence as one indicator of coherence in a large sample of subjects involving three different thematic sets of beliefs (delusion-like, paranormal & religious, and societal/cultural. Results showed that the degree of belief co-endorsement between beliefs within thematic groupings was greater than random occurrence, lending support to Quine and Ullian's coherentist account. Some associations, however, were relatively weak, providing for well-established examples of cognitive dissonance.

  14. A short walk in quantum probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Robin

    2018-04-01

    This is a personal survey of aspects of quantum probability related to the Heisenberg commutation relation for canonical pairs. Using the failure, in general, of non-negativity of the Wigner distribution for canonical pairs to motivate a more satisfactory quantum notion of joint distribution, we visit a central limit theorem for such pairs and a resulting family of quantum planar Brownian motions which deform the classical planar Brownian motion, together with a corresponding family of quantum stochastic areas. This article is part of the themed issue `Hilbert's sixth problem'.

  15. A short walk in quantum probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Robin

    2018-04-28

    This is a personal survey of aspects of quantum probability related to the Heisenberg commutation relation for canonical pairs. Using the failure, in general, of non-negativity of the Wigner distribution for canonical pairs to motivate a more satisfactory quantum notion of joint distribution, we visit a central limit theorem for such pairs and a resulting family of quantum planar Brownian motions which deform the classical planar Brownian motion, together with a corresponding family of quantum stochastic areas.This article is part of the themed issue 'Hilbert's sixth problem'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  16. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-01-01

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  17. Approaches to Evaluating Probability of Collision Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.

    2016-01-01

    While the two-dimensional probability of collision (Pc) calculation has served as the main input to conjunction analysis risk assessment for over a decade, it has done this mostly as a point estimate, with relatively little effort made to produce confidence intervals on the Pc value based on the uncertainties in the inputs. The present effort seeks to try to carry these uncertainties through the calculation in order to generate a probability density of Pc results rather than a single average value. Methods for assessing uncertainty in the primary and secondary objects' physical sizes and state estimate covariances, as well as a resampling approach to reveal the natural variability in the calculation, are presented; and an initial proposal for operationally-useful display and interpretation of these data for a particular conjunction is given.

  18. Statistical Study of Aircraft Icing Probabilities at the 700- and 500- Millibar Levels over Ocean Areas in the Northern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perkins, Porter J.; Lewis, William; Mulholland, Donald R.

    1957-01-01

    A statistical study is made of icing data reported from weather reconnaissance aircraft flown by Air Weather Service (USAF). The weather missions studied were flown at fixed flight levels of 500 millibars (18,000 ft) and 700 millibars (10,000 ft) over wide areas of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic Oceans. This report is presented as part of a program conducted by the NACA to obtain extensive icing statistics relevant to aircraft design and operation. The thousands of in-flight observations recorded over a 2- to 4-year period provide reliable statistics on icing encounters for the specific areas, altitudes, and seasons included in the data. The relative frequencies of icing occurrence are presented, together with the estimated icing probabilities and the relation of these probabilities to the frequencies of flight in clouds and cloud temperatures. The results show that aircraft operators can expect icing probabilities to vary widely throughout the year from near zero in the cold Arctic areas in winter up to 7 percent in areas where greater cloudiness and warmer temperatures prevail. The data also reveal a general tendency of colder cloud temperatures to reduce the probability of icing in equally cloudy conditions.

  19. [Biometric bases: basic concepts of probability calculation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinya, E

    1998-04-26

    The author gives or outline of the basic concepts of probability theory. The bases of the event algebra, definition of the probability, the classical probability model and the random variable are presented.

  20. Classifying Sluice Occurrences in Dialogue

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baird, Austin; Hamza, Anissa; Hardt, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    perform manual annotation with acceptable inter-coder agreement. We build classifier models with Decision Trees and Naive Bayes, with accuracy of 67%. We deploy a classifier to automatically classify sluice occurrences in OpenSubtitles, resulting in a corpus with 1.7 million occurrences. This will support....... Despite this, the corpus can be of great use in research on sluicing and development of systems, and we are making the corpus freely available on request. Furthermore, we are in the process of improving the accuracy of sluice identification and annotation for the purpose of created a subsequent version...

  1. Probability for Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  2. Estimating the Duration of Public Concern After the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station Accident From the Occurrence of Radiation Exposure-Related Terms on Twitter: A Retrospective Data Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishimoto, Naoki; Ota, Mizuki; Yagahara, Ayako; Ogasawara, Katsuhiko

    2016-11-25

    After the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station accident in Japan on March 11, 2011, a large number of comments, both positive and negative, were posted on social media. The objective of this study was to clarify the characteristics of the trend in the number of tweets posted on Twitter, and to estimate how long public concern regarding the accident continued. We surveyed the attenuation period of the first term occurrence related to radiation exposure as a surrogate endpoint for the duration of concern. We retrieved 18,891,284 tweets from Twitter data between March 11, 2011 and March 10, 2012, containing 143 variables in Japanese. We selected radiation, radioactive, Sievert (Sv), Becquerel (Bq), and gray (Gy) as keywords to estimate the attenuation period of public concern regarding radiation exposure. These data, formatted as comma-separated values, were transferred into a Statistical Analysis System (SAS) dataset for analysis, and survival analysis methodology was followed using the SAS LIFETEST procedure. This study was approved by the institutional review board of Hokkaido University and informed consent was waived. A Kaplan-Meier curve was used to show the rate of Twitter users posting a message after the accident that included one or more of the keywords. The term Sv occurred in tweets up to one year after the first tweet. Among the Twitter users studied, 75.32% (880,108/1,168,542) tweeted the word radioactive and 9.20% (107,522/1,168,542) tweeted the term Sv. The first reduction was observed within the first 7 days after March 11, 2011. The means and standard errors (SEs) of the duration from the first tweet on March 11, 2011 were 31.9 days (SE 0.096) for radioactive and 300.6 days (SE 0.181) for Sv. These keywords were still being used at the end of the study period. The mean attenuation period for radioactive was one month, and approximately one year for radiation and radiation units. The difference in mean duration between the keywords was attributed

  3. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Olofsson, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes.   Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area.  The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and

  4. Probability, statistics, and computational science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters.

  5. Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.

    2006-01-01

    Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values

  6. Demonstration Integrated Knowledge-Based System for Estimating Human Error Probabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auflick, Jack L.

    1999-04-21

    Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is currently comprised of at least 40 different methods that are used to analyze, predict, and evaluate human performance in probabilistic terms. Systematic HRAs allow analysts to examine human-machine relationships, identify error-likely situations, and provide estimates of relative frequencies for human errors on critical tasks, highlighting the most beneficial areas for system improvements. Unfortunately, each of HRA's methods has a different philosophical approach, thereby producing estimates of human error probabilities (HEPs) that area better or worse match to the error likely situation of interest. Poor selection of methodology, or the improper application of techniques can produce invalid HEP estimates, where that erroneous estimation of potential human failure could have potentially severe consequences in terms of the estimated occurrence of injury, death, and/or property damage.

  7. p-adic probability interpretation of Bell's inequality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrennikov, A.

    1995-01-01

    We study the violation of Bell's inequality using a p-adic generalization of the theory of probability. p-adic probability is introduced as a limit of relative frequencies but this limit exists with respect to a p-adic metric. In particular, negative probability distributions are well defined on the basis of the frequency definition. This new type of stochastics can be used to describe hidden-variables distributions of some quantum models. If the hidden variables have a p-adic probability distribution, Bell's inequality is not valid and it is not necessary to discuss the experimental violations of this inequality. ((orig.))

  8. Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sen Phang

    2015-12-01

    Conclusions: Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing.

  9. OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS: ASSESSMENT FROM HISTORICAL PROXY DATA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Usoskin, Ilya G. [Sodankylae Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit) and Department of Physical Sciences, University of Oulu, FIN-90014 Oulu (Finland); Kovaltsov, Gennady A., E-mail: ilya.usoskin@oulu.fi [Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute of RAS, 194021 St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    2012-09-20

    The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with proton fluence (>30 MeV) F{sub 30} {>=} 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} is evaluated based on data on the cosmogenic isotopes {sup 14}C and {sup 10}Be in terrestrial archives covering centennial-millennial timescales. Four potential candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-1.5) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} and no events with F{sub 30} > 2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved {sup 10}Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11,400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-3) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are found and clearly no event with F{sub 30} > 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} (50 times the SPE of 1956 February 23) has occurred. These values serve as observational upper limits on the strength of SPEs on the timescale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates for extreme SPEs. We build a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. Practical limits can be set as F{sub 30} Almost-Equal-To 1, 2-3, and 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} for occurrence probabilities Almost-Equal-To 10{sup -2}, 10{sup -3}, and 10{sup -4} yr{sup -1}, respectively. Because of the uncertainties, our results should be interpreted as a conservative upper limit on the SPE occurrence near Earth. The mean solar energetic particle (SEP) flux is evaluated as Almost-Equal-To 40 (cm{sup 2} s){sup -1}, in agreement with estimates from lunar rocks. On average, extreme SPEs contribute about 10% to the total SEP fluence.

  10. Lectures on probability and statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yost, G.P.

    1984-09-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another

  11. Probability Distributome: A Web Computational Infrastructure for Exploring the Properties, Interrelations, and Applications of Probability Distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinov, Ivo D; Siegrist, Kyle; Pearl, Dennis K; Kalinin, Alexandr; Christou, Nicolas

    2016-06-01

    Probability distributions are useful for modeling, simulation, analysis, and inference on varieties of natural processes and physical phenomena. There are uncountably many probability distributions. However, a few dozen families of distributions are commonly defined and are frequently used in practice for problem solving, experimental applications, and theoretical studies. In this paper, we present a new computational and graphical infrastructure, the Distributome , which facilitates the discovery, exploration and application of diverse spectra of probability distributions. The extensible Distributome infrastructure provides interfaces for (human and machine) traversal, search, and navigation of all common probability distributions. It also enables distribution modeling, applications, investigation of inter-distribution relations, as well as their analytical representations and computational utilization. The entire Distributome framework is designed and implemented as an open-source, community-built, and Internet-accessible infrastructure. It is portable, extensible and compatible with HTML5 and Web2.0 standards (http://Distributome.org). We demonstrate two types of applications of the probability Distributome resources: computational research and science education. The Distributome tools may be employed to address five complementary computational modeling applications (simulation, data-analysis and inference, model-fitting, examination of the analytical, mathematical and computational properties of specific probability distributions, and exploration of the inter-distributional relations). Many high school and college science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses may be enriched by the use of modern pedagogical approaches and technology-enhanced methods. The Distributome resources provide enhancements for blended STEM education by improving student motivation, augmenting the classical curriculum with interactive webapps, and overhauling the

  12. RCNP E398 {sup 16}O,{sup 12}C(p,p’) experiment: Measurement of the γ-ray emission probability from giant resonances in relation to {sup 16}O,{sup 12}C(ν,ν’) reactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ou, I.; Yamada, Y.; Mori, T.; Yano, T.; Sakuda, M. [Department of Physics, Okayama University, Okayama 700-8530 (Japan); Tamii, A.; Suzuki, T.; Yosoi, M.; Aoi, N.; Ideguchi, E.; Hashimoto, T.; Miki, K.; Ito, T.; Iwamoto, C.; Yamamoto, T. [Research Center for Nuclear Physics (RCNP), Osaka University, Ibaraki, Osaka 567-0047 (Japan); Akimune, H. [Department of Physics, Konan University, Okamoto 8-9-1, Higashinada, Kobe 658-8501 (Japan)

    2015-05-15

    We propose to measure the γ-ray emission probability from excited states above 5 MeV including giant resonance of {sup 16}O and {sup 12}C as a function of excitation energy in 1-MeV step. Here, we measure both the excitation energy (E{sub x}=5-30MeV) at the forward scattering angles (0°-3°) of the {sup 16}O, {sup 12}C (p, p’) reaction using Grand-Raiden Spectrometer and the energy of γ-rays (E{sub γ}) using an array of NaI(Tl) counters. The purpose of the experiment is to provide the basic and important information not only for the γ-ray production from primary neutral-current neutrino-oxygen (-carbon) interactions but also for that from the secondary hadronic (neutron-oxygen and -carbon) interactions.

  13. First natural occurrence of coesite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, E.C.T.; Shoemaker, E.M.; Madsen, B.M.

    1960-01-01

    Coesite, the high-pressure polymorph of SiO2, hitherto known only as a synthetic compound, is identified as an abundant mineral in sheared Coconino sandstone at Meteor Crater, Arizona. This natural occurrence has important bearing on the recognition of meteorite impact craters in quartz-bearing geologic formations.

  14. Human plague occurrences in Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neerinckx, Simon; Bertherat, Eric; Leirs, Herwig

    2010-01-01

    Plague remains a public health concern worldwide, but particularly in Africa. Despite the long-standing history of human plague, it is difficult to get a historical and recent overview of the general situation. We searched and screened available information sources on human plague occurrences in ...

  15. Integrating occurrence and detectability patterns based on interview data: a case study for threatened mammals in Equatorial Guinea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Martí, Chele; Jiménez-Franco, María V.; Royle, J. Andrew; Palazón, José A.; Calvo, José F.

    2016-01-01

    Occurrence models that account for imperfect detection of species are increasingly used for estimating geographical range, for determining species-landscape relations and to prioritize conservation actions worldwide. In 2010, we conducted a large-scale survey in Río Muni, the mainland territory of Equatorial Guinea, which aimed to estimate the probabilities of occurrence and detection of threatened mammals based on environmental covariates, and to identify priority areas for conservation. Interviews with hunters were designed to record presence/absence data of seven species (golden cat, leopard, forest elephant, forest buffalo, western gorilla, chimpanzee and mandrill) in 225 sites throughout the region. We fitted single season occupancy models and recently developed models which also include false positive errors (i.e. species detected in places where it actually does not occur), which should provide more accurate estimates for most species, which are susceptible to mis-identification. Golden cat and leopard had the lowest occurrence rates in the region, whereas primates had the highest rates. All species, except gorilla, were affected negatively by human settlements. The southern half of Río Muni showed the highest occurrence of the species studied, and conservation strategies for ensuring the persistence of threatened mammals should be focused on this area.

  16. Mineralizations of the Lavalleja Group (Uruguay), a Probable Neoproterozoic Volcano-sedimentary Sequence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez Bettucci, L.; Oyhantcabal, P.; Loureiro, J.; Basei, M.; Ramos, V.; Preciozzi, F.; Basei, M.

    2004-01-01

    The Lavalleja Group is located in the southern extreme of the Dom Feliciano Belt, being tentatively correlated with the Porongos and Brusque Groups of Brazil. The basement of the Lavalleja Group is probably represented by granitic gneissic rocks of the Campanero Unit with ages, in the southern portion, ranging from 1.75 to 2.1 Ga (U-Pb in zircon). The Lavalleja Group is characterized by narrow bands of meta sedimentary and meta volcanic rocks and it is separated in three formations, namely (from base to top): Zanja del Tigre, Fuente del Puma and Minas. Outcrops assigned to the Minas Formation have been recently correlated with the Arroyo del Soldado Group. Only the Fuente del Puma formation hosts base metals, Au and Ag occurrences. The Fuente del Puma formation is divided into three informal units: sedimentary, volcanic and hornblenditic gabbros. The sedimentary unit is characterized by an important amount of carbonates. Syn collisional to pos tectonic granitic bodies (Carapé Complex) intrudes the Lavalleja Group and the Campanero Unit. Several mineralizations are located in the Fuente del Puma Formation, those associated to Arrospide, Ramallo-Reus, Chape, Valencia, La Oriental, Apolonia, Redondo Hill, La China and La Paloma mines are the most important. In addition, many occurrences of Cu-Zn-Pb were recognized in the region. The Cu-Zn-Pb mineralization includes massive sulfides with pyrite-chalcopyrite-sphalerite-galena-pyrrothyte, arsenopyrite-hematite into small bodies with lenticular shape. The host rock shows frequently hydrothermal alteration. The geochemistry and the geological features of the mineralizations suggest Besshi Massive Sulphide Zn-Cu-Pb and SEDEX Zn-Pb as most probably genetic models for the deposits related to the Neoproterozoic orogeny. Early mineralizations are syngenetic and were formed on the sea floor, although the main mineralizations are related to remobilization during syn- to late-metamorphic events and thrusting

  17. A quantum probability model of causal reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer S Trueblood

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect. The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment.

  18. Probability and containment of turbine missiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeh, G.C.K.

    1976-01-01

    With the trend toward ever larger power generating plants with large high-speed turbines, an important plant design consideration is the potential for and consequences of mechanical failure of turbine rotors. Such rotor failure could result in high-velocity disc fragments (turbine missiles) perforating the turbine casing and jeopardizing vital plant systems. The designer must first estimate the probability of any turbine missile damaging any safety-related plant component for his turbine and his plant arrangement. If the probability is not low enough to be acceptable to the regulatory agency, he must design a shield to contain the postulated turbine missiles. Alternatively, the shield could be designed to retard (to reduce the velocity of) the missiles such that they would not damage any vital plant system. In this paper, some of the presently available references that can be used to evaluate the probability, containment and retardation of turbine missiles are reviewed; various alternative methods are compared; and subjects for future research are recommended. (Auth.)

  19. On the universality of knot probability ratios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janse van Rensburg, E J [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 (Canada); Rechnitzer, A, E-mail: rensburg@yorku.ca, E-mail: andrewr@math.ubc.ca [Department of Mathematics, University of British Columbia, 1984 Mathematics Road, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2 (Canada)

    2011-04-22

    Let p{sub n} denote the number of self-avoiding polygons of length n on a regular three-dimensional lattice, and let p{sub n}(K) be the number which have knot type K. The probability that a random polygon of length n has knot type K is p{sub n}(K)/p{sub n} and is known to decay exponentially with length (Sumners and Whittington 1988 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 21 1689-94, Pippenger 1989 Discrete Appl. Math. 25 273-8). Little is known rigorously about the asymptotics of p{sub n}(K), but there is substantial numerical evidence. It is believed that the entropic exponent, {alpha}, is universal, while the exponential growth rate is independent of the knot type but varies with the lattice. The amplitude, C{sub K}, depends on both the lattice and the knot type. The above asymptotic form implies that the relative probability of a random polygon of length n having prime knot type K over prime knot type L. In the thermodynamic limit this probability ratio becomes an amplitude ratio; it should be universal and depend only on the knot types K and L. In this communication we examine the universality of these probability ratios for polygons in the simple cubic, face-centred cubic and body-centred cubic lattices. Our results support the hypothesis that these are universal quantities. For example, we estimate that a long random polygon is approximately 28 times more likely to be a trefoil than be a figure-eight, independent of the underlying lattice, giving an estimate of the intrinsic entropy associated with knot types in closed curves. (fast track communication)

  20. Continuation of probability density functions using a generalized Lyapunov approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baars, S., E-mail: s.baars@rug.nl [Johann Bernoulli Institute for Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 407, 9700 AK Groningen (Netherlands); Viebahn, J.P., E-mail: viebahn@cwi.nl [Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica (CWI), P.O. Box 94079, 1090 GB, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Mulder, T.E., E-mail: t.e.mulder@uu.nl [Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht (Netherlands); Kuehn, C., E-mail: ckuehn@ma.tum.de [Technical University of Munich, Faculty of Mathematics, Boltzmannstr. 3, 85748 Garching bei München (Germany); Wubs, F.W., E-mail: f.w.wubs@rug.nl [Johann Bernoulli Institute for Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 407, 9700 AK Groningen (Netherlands); Dijkstra, H.A., E-mail: h.a.dijkstra@uu.nl [Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht (Netherlands); School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY (United States)

    2017-05-01

    Techniques from numerical bifurcation theory are very useful to study transitions between steady fluid flow patterns and the instabilities involved. Here, we provide computational methodology to use parameter continuation in determining probability density functions of systems of stochastic partial differential equations near fixed points, under a small noise approximation. Key innovation is the efficient solution of a generalized Lyapunov equation using an iterative method involving low-rank approximations. We apply and illustrate the capabilities of the method using a problem in physical oceanography, i.e. the occurrence of multiple steady states of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.

  1. Probability theory a comprehensive course

    CERN Document Server

    Klenke, Achim

    2014-01-01

    This second edition of the popular textbook contains a comprehensive course in modern probability theory. Overall, probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us in understanding magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments at financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms.   To address these concepts, the title covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as:   • limit theorems for sums of random variables • martingales • percolation • Markov chains and electrical networks • construction of stochastic processes • Poisson point process and infinite divisibility • large deviation principles and statistical physics • Brownian motion • stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the c...

  2. Probability and logical structure of statistical theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, M.J.W.

    1988-01-01

    A characterization of statistical theories is given which incorporates both classical and quantum mechanics. It is shown that each statistical theory induces an associated logic and joint probability structure, and simple conditions are given for the structure to be of a classical or quantum type. This provides an alternative for the quantum logic approach to axiomatic quantum mechanics. The Bell inequalities may be derived for those statistical theories that have a classical structure and satisfy a locality condition weaker than factorizability. The relation of these inequalities to the issue of hidden variable theories for quantum mechanics is discussed and clarified

  3. STRIP: stream learning of influence probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kutzkov, Konstantin

    2013-01-01

    cascades, and developing applications such as viral marketing. Motivated by modern microblogging platforms, such as twitter, in this paper we study the problem of learning influence probabilities in a data-stream scenario, in which the network topology is relatively stable and the challenge of a learning...... algorithm is to keep up with a continuous stream of tweets using a small amount of time and memory. Our contribution is a number of randomized approximation algorithms, categorized according to the available space (superlinear, linear, and sublinear in the number of nodes n) and according to dierent models...

  4. Using Logistic Regression to Predict the Probability of Debris Flows in Areas Burned by Wildfires, Southern California, 2003-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Helsel, Dennis R.

    2008-01-01

    Logistic regression was used to develop statistical models that can be used to predict the probability of debris flows in areas recently burned by wildfires by using data from 14 wildfires that burned in southern California during 2003-2006. Twenty-eight independent variables describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties of 306 drainage basins located within those burned areas were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows soon after the 2003 to 2006 fires were delineated from data in the National Elevation Dataset using a geographic information system; (2) Data describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were compiled for each basin. These data were then input to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression; and (3) Relations between the occurrence or absence of debris flows and the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated, and five multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combinations produced the most effective models, and the multivariate models that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows were identified. Percentage of high burn severity and 3-hour peak rainfall intensity were significant variables in all models. Soil organic matter content and soil clay content were significant variables in all models except Model 5. Soil slope was a significant variable in all models except Model 4. The most suitable model can be selected from these five models on the basis of the availability of independent variables in the particular area of interest and field checking of probability maps. The multivariate logistic regression models can be entered into a geographic information system, and maps showing the probability of debris flows can be constructed in recently burned areas of

  5. Numerical determination of transmission probabilities in cylindrical geometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Queiroz Bogado Leite, S. de.

    1989-11-01

    Efficient methods for numerical calculation of transmission probabilities in cylindrical geometry are presented. Relative errors of the order of 10 -5 or smaller are obtained using analytical solutions and low order quadrature integration schemes. (author) [pt

  6. Wigner function and the probability representation of quantum states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Man’ko Margarita A.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The relation of theWigner function with the fair probability distribution called tomographic distribution or quantum tomogram associated with the quantum state is reviewed. The connection of the tomographic picture of quantum mechanics with the integral Radon transform of the Wigner quasidistribution is discussed. The Wigner–Moyal equation for the Wigner function is presented in the form of kinetic equation for the tomographic probability distribution both in quantum mechanics and in the classical limit of the Liouville equation. The calculation of moments of physical observables in terms of integrals with the state tomographic probability distributions is constructed having a standard form of averaging in the probability theory. New uncertainty relations for the position and momentum are written in terms of optical tomograms suitable for directexperimental check. Some recent experiments on checking the uncertainty relations including the entropic uncertainty relations are discussed.

  7. Fracture occurrence from radionuclides in the skeleton

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lloyd, R.D.; Taylor, G.N.; Miller, S.C.

    2000-06-01

    Because skeletal fractures were an important finding among persons contaminated with {sup 226}Ra, experience with fractures among dogs in the colony was summarized to determine the projected significance for persons contaminated with bone-seeking radionuclides. Comparison by Fisher's Exact Test of lifetime fracture occurrence in the skeletons of beagles injected as young adults suggested that for animals given {sup 226}Ra, {sup 228}Ra, {sup 228}Th, or {sup 239}Pu citrate, there was probably an excess over controls in fractures of the ribs, leg bones, spinous processes, and pelvis (os coxae) plus the mandible for dogs given {sup 226}Ra and the scapulae for dogs given {sup 228}Ra or 228 Th. Regression analysis indicated that significantly elevated fracture occurrence was especially notable at the higher radiation doses, at about 50 Gy average skeletal dose for {sup 239}Pu, 140 Gy for {sup 226}Ra, about 40 Gy for {sup 228}Ra, and more than 15 Gy for {sup 228}Th. The average number of fractures per dog was significantly elevated over that noted in controls for the highest radiation doses of {sup 239}Pu and {sup 226}Ra and for the higher doses of {sup 228}Ra and {sup 228}Th. For those dogs given {sup 90}Sr citrate, there was virtually no important difference from control beagles not given radionuclides, even at group mean cumulative skeletal radiation doses up to 101 Gy. Because of a large proportion of dogs with fractures that died with bone malignancy (even at dosage levels lower than those exhibiting an excess average number of fractures per dog), they conclude that fracture would not be an important endpoint at lower levels of plutonium contamination in humans such as would be expected to occur from occupational or environmental exposure.

  8. Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers

    CERN Document Server

    Pugachev, V S

    1984-01-01

    Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector

  9. Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications

    CERN Document Server

    Helms, Lester L

    2010-01-01

    This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process

  10. School and conference on probability theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawler, G.F.

    2004-01-01

    This volume includes expanded lecture notes from the School and Conference in Probability Theory held at ICTP in May, 2001. Probability theory is a very large area, too large for a single school and conference. The organizers, G. Lawler, C. Newman, and S. Varadhan chose to focus on a number of active research areas that have their roots in statistical physics. The pervasive theme in these lectures is trying to find the large time or large space behaviour of models defined on discrete lattices. Usually the definition of the model is relatively simple: either assigning a particular weight to each possible configuration (equilibrium statistical mechanics) or specifying the rules under which the system evolves (nonequilibrium statistical mechanics). Interacting particle systems is the area of probability that studies the evolution of particles (either finite or infinite in number) under random motions. The evolution of particles depends on the positions of the other particles; often one assumes that it depends only on the particles that are close to the particular particle. Thomas Liggett's lectures give an introduction to this very large area. Claudio Landim's follows up by discussing hydrodynamic limits of particle systems. The goal of this area is to describe the long time, large system size dynamics in terms of partial differential equations. The area of random media is concerned with the properties of materials or environments that are not homogeneous. Percolation theory studies one of the simplest stated models for impurities - taking a lattice and removing some of the vertices or bonds. Luiz Renato G. Fontes and Vladas Sidoravicius give a detailed introduction to this area. Random walk in random environment combines two sources of randomness - a particle performing stochastic motion in which the transition probabilities depend on position and have been chosen from some probability distribution. Alain-Sol Sznitman gives a survey of recent developments in this

  11. Quantum correlations in terms of neutrino oscillation probabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alok, Ashutosh Kumar, E-mail: akalok@iitj.ac.in [Indian Institute of Technology Jodhpur, Jodhpur 342011 (India); Banerjee, Subhashish, E-mail: subhashish@iitj.ac.in [Indian Institute of Technology Jodhpur, Jodhpur 342011 (India); Uma Sankar, S., E-mail: uma@phy.iitb.ac.in [Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400076 (India)

    2016-08-15

    Neutrino oscillations provide evidence for the mode entanglement of neutrino mass eigenstates in a given flavour eigenstate. Given this mode entanglement, it is pertinent to consider the relation between the oscillation probabilities and other quantum correlations. In this work, we show that all the well-known quantum correlations, such as the Bell's inequality, are directly related to the neutrino oscillation probabilities. The results of the neutrino oscillation experiments, which measure the neutrino survival probability to be less than unity, imply Bell's inequality violation.

  12. Exudate gums: occurrence, production, and applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeken, D; Dierckx, S; Dewettinck, K

    2003-11-01

    This paper presents a review of the industrially most relevant exudate gums: gum arabic, gum karya, and gum tragacanth. Exudate gums are obtained as the natural exudates of different tree species and exhibit unique properties in a wide variety of applications. This review covers the chemical structure, occurrence and production of the different gums. It also deals with the size and relative importance of the various players on the world market. Furthermore, it gives an overview of the main application fields of the different gums, both food and non-food.

  13. Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaz, Teresa; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, Susana; Cruz Oliveira, Sérgio; Quaresma, Ivânia

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall is one of the most important triggering factors for landslides occurrence worldwide. The relation between rainfall and landslide occurrence is complex and some approaches have been focus on the rainfall thresholds identification, i.e., rainfall critical values that when exceeded can initiate landslide activity. In line with these approaches, this work proposes and validates rainfall thresholds for the Lisbon region (Portugal), using a centenary landslide database associated with a centenary daily rainfall database. The main objectives of the work are the following: i) to compute antecedent rainfall thresholds using linear and potential regression; ii) to define lower limit and upper limit rainfall thresholds; iii) to estimate the probability of critical rainfall conditions associated with landslide events; and iv) to assess the thresholds performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. In this study we consider the DISASTER database, which lists landslides that caused fatalities, injuries, missing people, evacuated and homeless people occurred in Portugal from 1865 to 2010. The DISASTER database was carried out exploring several Portuguese daily and weekly newspapers. Using the same newspaper sources, the DISASTER database was recently updated to include also the landslides that did not caused any human damage, which were also considered for this study. The daily rainfall data were collected at the Lisboa-Geofísico meteorological station. This station was selected considering the quality and completeness of the rainfall data, with records that started in 1864. The methodology adopted included the computation, for each landslide event, of the cumulative antecedent rainfall for different durations (1 to 90 consecutive days). In a second step, for each combination of rainfall quantity-duration, the return period was estimated using the Gumbel probability distribution. The pair (quantity-duration) with the highest return period was

  14. Human errors evaluation for muster in emergency situations applying human error probability index (HEPI, in the oil company warehouse in Hamadan City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Emergency situation is one of the influencing factors on human error. The aim of this research was purpose to evaluate human error in emergency situation of fire and explosion at the oil company warehouse in Hamadan city applying human error probability index (HEPI. . Material and Method: First, the scenario of emergency situation of those situation of fire and explosion at the oil company warehouse was designed and then maneuver against, was performed. The scaled questionnaire of muster for the maneuver was completed in the next stage. Collected data were analyzed to calculate the probability success for the 18 actions required in an emergency situation from starting point of the muster until the latest action to temporary sheltersafe. .Result: The result showed that the highest probability of error occurrence was related to make safe workplace (evaluation phase with 32.4 % and lowest probability of occurrence error in detection alarm (awareness phase with 1.8 %, probability. The highest severity of error was in the evaluation phase and the lowest severity of error was in the awareness and recovery phase. Maximum risk level was related to the evaluating exit routes and selecting one route and choosy another exit route and minimum risk level was related to the four evaluation phases. . Conclusion: To reduce the risk of reaction in the exit phases of an emergency situation, the following actions are recommended, based on the finding in this study: A periodic evaluation of the exit phase and modifying them if necessary, conducting more maneuvers and analyzing this results along with a sufficient feedback to the employees.

  15. Using Field Data and GIS-Derived Variables to Model Occurrence of Williamson's Sapsucker Nesting Habitat at Multiple Spatial Scales.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark C Drever

    Full Text Available Williamson's sapsucker (Sphyrapicus thyroideus is a migratory woodpecker that breeds in mixed coniferous forests in western North America. In Canada, the range of this woodpecker is restricted to three small populations in southern British Columbia, precipitating a national listing as 'Endangered' in 2005, and the need to characterize critical habitat for its survival and recovery. We compared habitat attributes between Williamson's sapsucker nest territories and random points without nests or detections of this sapsucker as part of a resource selection analysis to identify the habitat features that best explain the probability of nest occurrence in two separate geographic regions in British Columbia. We compared the relative explanatory power of generalized linear models based on field-derived and Geographic Information System (GIS data within both a 225 m and 800 m radius of a nest or random point. The model based on field-derived variables explained the most variation in nest occurrence in the Okanagan-East Kootenay Region, whereas nest occurrence was best explained by GIS information at the 800 m scale in the Western Region. Probability of nest occurrence was strongly tied to densities of potential nest trees, which included open forests with very large (diameter at breast height, DBH, ≥57.5 cm western larch (Larix occidentalis trees in the Okanagan-East Kootenay Region, and very large ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa and large (DBH 17.5-57.5 cm trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides trees in the Western Region. Our results have the potential to guide identification and protection of critical habitat as required by the Species at Risk Act in Canada, and to better manage Williamson's sapsucker habitat overall in North America. In particular, management should focus on the maintenance and recruitment of very large western larch and ponderosa pine trees.

  16. Using Field Data and GIS-Derived Variables to Model Occurrence of Williamson's Sapsucker Nesting Habitat at Multiple Spatial Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drever, Mark C; Gyug, Les W; Nielsen, Jennifer; Stuart-Smith, A Kari; Ohanjanian, I Penny; Martin, Kathy

    2015-01-01

    Williamson's sapsucker (Sphyrapicus thyroideus) is a migratory woodpecker that breeds in mixed coniferous forests in western North America. In Canada, the range of this woodpecker is restricted to three small populations in southern British Columbia, precipitating a national listing as 'Endangered' in 2005, and the need to characterize critical habitat for its survival and recovery. We compared habitat attributes between Williamson's sapsucker nest territories and random points without nests or detections of this sapsucker as part of a resource selection analysis to identify the habitat features that best explain the probability of nest occurrence in two separate geographic regions in British Columbia. We compared the relative explanatory power of generalized linear models based on field-derived and Geographic Information System (GIS) data within both a 225 m and 800 m radius of a nest or random point. The model based on field-derived variables explained the most variation in nest occurrence in the Okanagan-East Kootenay Region, whereas nest occurrence was best explained by GIS information at the 800 m scale in the Western Region. Probability of nest occurrence was strongly tied to densities of potential nest trees, which included open forests with very large (diameter at breast height, DBH, ≥57.5 cm) western larch (Larix occidentalis) trees in the Okanagan-East Kootenay Region, and very large ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and large (DBH 17.5-57.5 cm) trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) trees in the Western Region. Our results have the potential to guide identification and protection of critical habitat as required by the Species at Risk Act in Canada, and to better manage Williamson's sapsucker habitat overall in North America. In particular, management should focus on the maintenance and recruitment of very large western larch and ponderosa pine trees.

  17. The probability and the management of human error

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufey, R.B.; Saull, J.W.

    2004-01-01

    Embedded within modern technological systems, human error is the largest, and indeed dominant contributor to accident cause. The consequences dominate the risk profiles for nuclear power and for many other technologies. We need to quantify the probability of human error for the system as an integral contribution within the overall system failure, as it is generally not separable or predictable for actual events. We also need to provide a means to manage and effectively reduce the failure (error) rate. The fact that humans learn from their mistakes allows a new determination of the dynamic probability and human failure (error) rate in technological systems. The result is consistent with and derived from the available world data for modern technological systems. Comparisons are made to actual data from large technological systems and recent catastrophes. Best estimate values and relationships can be derived for both the human error rate, and for the probability. We describe the potential for new approaches to the management of human error and safety indicators, based on the principles of error state exclusion and of the systematic effect of learning. A new equation is given for the probability of human error (λ) that combines the influences of early inexperience, learning from experience (ε) and stochastic occurrences with having a finite minimum rate, this equation is λ 5.10 -5 + ((1/ε) - 5.10 -5 ) exp(-3*ε). The future failure rate is entirely determined by the experience: thus the past defines the future

  18. Scale-invariant transition probabilities in free word association trajectories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Elias Costa

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Free-word association has been used as a vehicle to understand the organization of human thoughts. The original studies relied mainly on qualitative assertions, yielding the widely intuitive notion that trajectories of word associations are structured, yet considerably more random than organized linguistic text. Here we set to determine a precise characterization of this space, generating a large number of word association trajectories in a web implemented game. We embedded the trajectories in the graph of word co-occurrences from a linguistic corpus. To constrain possible transport models we measured the memory loss and the cycling probability. These two measures could not be reconciled by a bounded diffusive model since the cycling probability was very high (16 % of order-2 cycles implying a majority of short-range associations whereas the memory loss was very rapid (converging to the asymptotic value in ∼ 7 steps which, in turn, forced a high fraction of long-range associations. We show that memory loss and cycling probabilities of free word association trajectories can be simultaneously accounted by a model in which transitions are determined by a scale invariant probability distribution.

  19. Computation of Probabilities in Causal Models of History of Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osvaldo Pessoa Jr.

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available : The aim of this paper is to investigate the ascription of probabilities in a causal model of an episode in the history of science. The aim of such a quantitative approach is to allow the implementation of the causal model in a computer, to run simulations. As an example, we look at the beginning of the science of magnetism, “explaining” — in a probabilistic way, in terms of a single causal model — why the field advanced in China but not in Europe (the difference is due to different prior probabilities of certain cultural manifestations. Given the number of years between the occurrences of two causally connected advances X and Y, one proposes a criterion for stipulating the value pY=X of the conditional probability of an advance Y occurring, given X. Next, one must assume a specific form for the cumulative probability function pY=X(t, which we take to be the time integral of an exponential distribution function, as is done in physics of radioactive decay. Rules for calculating the cumulative functions for more than two events are mentioned, involving composition, disjunction and conjunction of causes. We also consider the problems involved in supposing that the appearance of events in time follows an exponential distribution, which are a consequence of the fact that a composition of causes does not follow an exponential distribution, but a “hypoexponential” one. We suggest that a gamma distribution function might more adequately represent the appearance of advances.

  20. Direct probability mapping of contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.

    1993-01-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. Geostatistical simulation provides powerful tools for investigating contaminant levels, and in particular, for identifying and using the spatial interrelationships among a set of isolated sample values. This additional information can be used to assess the likelihood of encountering contamination at unsampled locations and to evaluate the risk associated with decisions to remediate or not to remediate specific regions within a site. Past operation of the DOE Feed Materials Production Center has contaminated a site near Fernald, Ohio, with natural uranium. Soil geochemical data have been collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project. These data have been used to construct a number of stochastic images of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit. Each such image accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely, statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination. Evaluation of the geostatistical simulations can yield maps representing the expected magnitude of the contamination for various regions and other information that may be important in determining a suitable remediation process or in sizing equipment to accomplish the restoration