Rosie D Salazar
Full Text Available The common toad (Bufo bufo is of increasing conservation concern in the United Kingdom (UK due to dramatic population declines occurring in the past century. Many of these population declines coincided with reductions in both terrestrial and aquatic habitat availability and quality and have been primarily attributed to the effect of agricultural land conversion (of natural and semi-natural habitats to arable and pasture fields and pond drainage. However, there is little evidence available to link habitat availability with common toad population declines, especially when examined at a broad landscape scale. Assessing such patterns of population declines at the landscape scale, for instance, require an understanding of how this species uses terrestrial habitat.We intensively studied the terrestrial resource selection of a large population of common toads in Oxfordshire, England, UK. Adult common toads were fitted with passive integrated transponder (PIT tags to allow detection in the terrestrial environment using a portable PIT antenna once toads left the pond and before going into hibernation (April/May-October 2012 and 2013. We developed a population-level resource selection function (RSF to assess the relative probability of toad occurrence in the terrestrial environment by collecting location data for 90 recaptured toads.The predicted relative probability of toad occurrence for this population was greatest in wooded habitat near to water bodies; relative probability of occurrence declined dramatically > 50 m from these habitats. Toads also tended to select habitat near to their breeding pond and toad occurrence was negatively related to urban environments.
Probability and Relative Frequency
Drieschner, Michael
2016-01-01
The concept of probability seems to have been inexplicable since its invention in the seventeenth century. In its use in science, probability is closely related with relative frequency. So the task seems to be interpreting that relation. In this paper, we start with predicted relative frequency and show that its structure is the same as that of probability. I propose to call that the `prediction interpretation' of probability. The consequences of that definition are discussed. The "ladder"-structure of the probability calculus is analyzed. The expectation of the relative frequency is shown to be equal to the predicted relative frequency. Probability is shown to be the most general empirically testable prediction.
On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events
Riley, Pete
2012-01-01
By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.
On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events
Riley, Pete
2012-01-01
By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.
On the probability of occurrence of rogue waves
E. M. Bitner-Gregersen
2012-03-01
Full Text Available A number of extreme and rogue wave studies have been conducted theoretically, numerically, experimentally and based on field data in the last years, which have significantly advanced our knowledge of ocean waves. So far, however, consensus on the probability of occurrence of rogue waves has not been achieved. The present investigation is addressing this topic from the perspective of design needs. Probability of occurrence of extreme and rogue wave crests in deep water is here discussed based on higher order time simulations, experiments and hindcast data. Focus is given to occurrence of rogue waves in high sea states.
A model to assess dust explosion occurrence probability.
Hassan, Junaid; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul; Ferdous, Refaul
2014-03-15
Dust handling poses a potential explosion hazard in many industrial facilities. The consequences of a dust explosion are often severe and similar to a gas explosion; however, its occurrence is conditional to the presence of five elements: combustible dust, ignition source, oxidant, mixing and confinement. Dust explosion researchers have conducted experiments to study the characteristics of these elements and generate data on explosibility. These experiments are often costly but the generated data has a significant scope in estimating the probability of a dust explosion occurrence. This paper attempts to use existing information (experimental data) to develop a predictive model to assess the probability of a dust explosion occurrence in a given environment. The pro-posed model considers six key parameters of a dust explosion: dust particle diameter (PD), minimum ignition energy (MIE), minimum explosible concentration (MEC), minimum ignition temperature (MIT), limiting oxygen concentration (LOC) and explosion pressure (Pmax). A conditional probabilistic approach has been developed and embedded in the proposed model to generate a nomograph for assessing dust explosion occurrence. The generated nomograph provides a quick assessment technique to map the occurrence probability of a dust explosion for a given environment defined with the six parameters.
Predicting the Probability of Lightning Occurrence with Generalized Additive Models
Fabsic, Peter; Mayr, Georg; Simon, Thorsten; Zeileis, Achim
2017-04-01
This study investigates the predictability of lightning in complex terrain. The main objective is to estimate the probability of lightning occurrence in the Alpine region during summertime afternoons (12-18 UTC) at a spatial resolution of 64 × 64 km2. Lightning observations are obtained from the ALDIS lightning detection network. The probability of lightning occurrence is estimated using generalized additive models (GAM). GAMs provide a flexible modelling framework to estimate the relationship between covariates and the observations. The covariates, besides spatial and temporal effects, include numerous meteorological fields from the ECMWF ensemble system. The optimal model is chosen based on a forward selection procedure with out-of-sample mean squared error as a performance criterion. Our investigation shows that convective precipitation and mid-layer stability are the most influential meteorological predictors. Both exhibit intuitive, non-linear trends: higher values of convective precipitation indicate higher probability of lightning, and large values of the mid-layer stability measure imply low lightning potential. The performance of the model was evaluated against a climatology model containing both spatial and temporal effects. Taking the climatology model as a reference forecast, our model attains a Brier Skill Score of approximately 46%. The model's performance can be further enhanced by incorporating the information about lightning activity from the previous time step, which yields a Brier Skill Score of 48%. These scores show that the method is able to extract valuable information from the ensemble to produce reliable spatial forecasts of the lightning potential in the Alps.
On the joint probability of correlated physical occurrences
Costa de Beauregard, O.
1996-03-01
Correlation meaning interaction for physical occurrences, the joint probability formalizes this interaction and conceptualizes a stochastic causality. Bayesian reversibility then expresses action-reaction symmetry for spacelike, und cause-effect symmetry for timelike, separations. Information-negeutropy equivalence (that is. reversibility of the twin-faced information concept) extends Mehlberg's “lawlike reversibility” and vindicates Wigner's claim that psychokinesis is reciprocal to gain in knowledge. A covariant axiomatization of probabilities as expressing physical interaction, and displaying the spacetime propagation of information, is proposed. Its correspondence (but essential difference) with the quantum calculation recipe is evidenced. The unfolding paradigm of a twin-faced reality- and- representation universe is stressed, and Pauli's hints in this direction are mentioned.
Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence
Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Mosher, David C.; Shipp, Craig; Moscardelli, Lorena; Chaytor, Jason D.; Baxter, Christopher D. P.; Lee, Homa J.; Urgeles, Roger
2010-01-01
The empirical probability for the occurrence of submarine landslides at a given location can be estimated from age dates of past landslides. In this study, tools developed to estimate earthquake probability from paleoseismic horizons are adapted to estimate submarine landslide probability. In both types of estimates, one has to account for the uncertainty associated with age-dating individual events as well as the open time intervals before and after the observed sequence of landslides. For observed sequences of submarine landslides, we typically only have the age date of the youngest event and possibly of a seismic horizon that lies below the oldest event in a landslide sequence. We use an empirical Bayes analysis based on the Poisson-Gamma conjugate prior model specifically applied to the landslide probability problem. This model assumes that landslide events as imaged in geophysical data are independent and occur in time according to a Poisson distribution characterized by a rate parameter λ. With this method, we are able to estimate the most likely value of λ and, importantly, the range of uncertainty in this estimate. Examples considered include landslide sequences observed in the Santa Barbara Channel, California, and in Port Valdez, Alaska. We confirm that given the uncertainties of age dating that landslide complexes can be treated as single events by performing statistical test of age dates representing the main failure episode of the Holocene Storegga landslide complex.
Traffic Network Optimum Principle - Minimum Probability of Congestion Occurrence
Kerner, Boris S
2010-01-01
We introduce an optimum principle for a vehicular traffic network with road bottlenecks. This network breakdown minimization (BM) principle states that the network optimum is reached, when link flow rates are assigned in the network in such a way that the probability for spontaneous occurrence of traffic breakdown at one of the network bottlenecks during a given observation time reaches the minimum possible value. Based on numerical simulations with a stochastic three-phase traffic flow model, we show that in comparison to the well-known Wardrop's principles the application of the BM principle permits considerably greater network inflow rates at which no traffic breakdown occurs and, therefore, free flow remains in the whole network.
Is there a metric for mineral deposit occurrence probabilities?
Drew, L.J.; Menzie, W.D.
1993-01-01
Traditionally, mineral resource assessments have been used to estimate the physical inventory of critical and strategic mineral commodities that occur in pieces of land and to assess the consequences of supply disruptions of these commodities. More recently, these assessments have been used to estimate the undiscovered mineral wealth in such pieces of land to assess the opportunity cost of using the land for purposes other than mineral production. The field of mineral resource assessment is an interdisciplinary field that draws elements from the disciplines of geology, economic geology (descriptive models), statistics and management science (grade and tonnage models), mineral economics, and operations research (computer simulation models). The purpose of this study is to assert that an occurrenceprobability metric exists that is useful in "filling out" an assessment both for areas in which only a trivial probability exists that a new mining district could be present and for areas where nontrivial probabilities exist for such districts. ?? 1993 Oxford University Press.
The probability of occurrence of high-loss windstorms
Massey, Neil
2016-04-01
Windstorms are one of the largest meteorological risks to life and property in Europe. High - loss windstorms, in terms of insured losses, are a result of not only the windspeed of the storm but also the position and track of the storm. The two highest loss storms on record, Daria (1990) and Lothar (1999) caused so much damage because they tracked across highly populated areas of Europe. Although the frequency and intensity of high - loss wind storms in the observed record is known, there are not enough samples, due to the short observed record, to truly know the distribution of the frequency and intensity of windstorms over Europe and, by extension, the distribution of losses which could occur if the atmosphere had been in a different state due to the internal variability of the atmosphere. Risk and loss modelling exercises carried out by and for the reinsurance industry have typically stochastically perturbed the historical record of high - loss windstorms to produce distributions of potential windstorms with greater sample sizes than the observations. This poster presents a new method of generating many samples of potential windstorms and analyses the frequency of occurrence, intensity and potential losses of these windstorms. The large ensemble regional climate modelling project weather@home is used to generate many regional climate model representations (800 per year) of the weather over Europe between 1985 and 2010. The regional climate model is driven at the boundaries by a free running global climate model and so each ensemble member represents a potential state of the atmosphere, rather than an observed state. The winter storm season of October to March is analysed by applying an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm to each ensemble member. From the resulting tracks, the windspeed within a 1000km radius of the cyclone centre is extracted and the maximum windspeed over a 72 hour period is derived as the storm windspeed footprint. This
The probability of object-scene co-occurrence influences object identification processes.
Sauvé, Geneviève; Harmand, Mariane; Vanni, Léa; Brodeur, Mathieu B
2017-07-01
Contextual information allows the human brain to make predictions about the identity of objects that might be seen and irregularities between an object and its background slow down perception and identification processes. Bar and colleagues modeled the mechanisms underlying this beneficial effect suggesting that the brain stocks information about the statistical regularities of object and scene co-occurrence. Their model suggests that these recurring regularities could be conceptualized along a continuum in which the probability of seeing an object within a given scene can be high (probable condition), moderate (improbable condition) or null (impossible condition). In the present experiment, we propose to disentangle the electrophysiological correlates of these context effects by directly comparing object-scene pairs found along this continuum. We recorded the event-related potentials of 30 healthy participants (18-34 years old) and analyzed their brain activity in three time windows associated with context effects. We observed anterior negativities between 250 and 500 ms after object onset for the improbable and impossible conditions (improbable more negative than impossible) compared to the probable condition as well as a parieto-occipital positivity (improbable more positive than impossible). The brain may use different processing pathways to identify objects depending on whether the probability of co-occurrence with the scene is moderate (rely more on top-down effects) or null (rely more on bottom-up influences). The posterior positivity could index error monitoring aimed to ensure that no false information is integrated into mental representations of the world.
Love, Jeffrey J.
2012-01-01
Statistical analysis is made of rare, extreme geophysical events recorded in historical data -- counting the number of events $k$ with sizes that exceed chosen thresholds during specific durations of time $\\tau$. Under transformations that stabilize data and model-parameter variances, the most likely Poisson-event occurrence rate, $k/\\tau$, applies for frequentist inference and, also, for Bayesian inference with a Jeffreys prior that ensures posterior invariance under changes of variables. Frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian (Jeffreys) credibility intervals are approximately the same and easy to calculate: $(1/\\tau)[(\\sqrt{k} - z/2)^{2},(\\sqrt{k} + z/2)^{2}]$, where $z$ is a parameter that specifies the width, $z=1$ ($z=2$) corresponding to $1\\sigma$, $68.3\\%$ ($2\\sigma$, $95.4\\%$). If only a few events have been observed, as is usually the case for extreme events, then these "error-bar" intervals might be considered to be relatively wide. From historical records, we estimate most likely long-term occurrence rates, 10-yr occurrence probabilities, and intervals of frequentist confidence and Bayesian credibility for large earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, and magnetic storms.
Royle, J. Andrew; Chandler, Richard B.; Yackulic, Charles; Nichols, James D.
2012-01-01
1. Understanding the factors affecting species occurrence is a pre-eminent focus of applied ecological research. However, direct information about species occurrence is lacking for many species. Instead, researchers sometimes have to rely on so-called presence-only data (i.e. when no direct information about absences is available), which often results from opportunistic, unstructured sampling. MAXENT is a widely used software program designed to model and map species distribution using presence-only data. 2. We provide a critical review of MAXENT as applied to species distribution modelling and discuss how it can lead to inferential errors. A chief concern is that MAXENT produces a number of poorly defined indices that are not directly related to the actual parameter of interest – the probability of occurrence (ψ). This focus on an index was motivated by the belief that it is not possible to estimate ψ from presence-only data; however, we demonstrate that ψ is identifiable using conventional likelihood methods under the assumptions of random sampling and constant probability of species detection. 3. The model is implemented in a convenient r package which we use to apply the model to simulated data and data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We demonstrate that MAXENT produces extreme under-predictions when compared to estimates produced by logistic regression which uses the full (presence/absence) data set. We note that MAXENT predictions are extremely sensitive to specification of the background prevalence, which is not objectively estimated using the MAXENT method. 4. As with MAXENT, formal model-based inference requires a random sample of presence locations. Many presence-only data sets, such as those based on museum records and herbarium collections, may not satisfy this assumption. However, when sampling is random, we believe that inference should be based on formal methods that facilitate inference about interpretable ecological quantities
Extracting Co-Occurrence Relations from ZDDs
Takahisa Toda
2012-12-01
Full Text Available A zero-suppressed binary decision diagram (ZDD is a graph representation suitable for handling sparse set families. Given a ZDD representing a set family, we present an efficient algorithm to discover a hidden structure, called a co-occurrence relation, on the ground set. This computation can be done in time complexity that is related not to the number of sets, but to some feature values of the ZDD. We furthermore introduce a conditional co-occurrence relation and present an extraction algorithm, which enables us to discover further structural information.
Liang, Zach; Lee, George C.
2013-06-01
In many regions of the world, a bridge will experience multiple extreme hazards during its expected service life. The current American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) load and resistance factor design (LRFD) specifications are formulated based on failure probabilities, which are fully calibrated for dead load and nonextreme live loads. Design against earthquake loads is established separately. Design against scour effect is also formulated separately by using the concept of capacity reduction (or increased scour depth). Furthermore, scour effect cannot be linked directly to an LRFD limit state equation, because the latter is formulated using force-based analysis. This paper (in two parts) presents a probability-based procedure to estimate the combined hazard effects on bridges due to truck, earthquake and scour, by treating the effect of scour as an equivalent load effect so that it can be included in reliability-based bridge failure calculations. In Part I of this series, the general principle of treating the scour depth as an equivalent load effect is presented. The individual and combined partial failure probabilities due to truck, earthquake and scour effects are described. To explain the method of including non-force-based natural hazards effects, two types of common scour failures are considered. In Part II, the corresponding bridge failure probability, the occurrence of scour as well as simultaneously having both truck load and equivalent scour load are quantitatively discussed.
Probability of Occurrence of Life-Limiting Fatigue Mechanism in P/M Nickel-Based Alloys (Postprint)
2016-03-30
AFRL-RX-WP-JA-2017-0146 PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF LIFE-LIMITING FATIGUE MECHANISM IN P/M NICKEL-BASED ALLOYS (POSTPRINT) M.J...February 2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF LIFE-LIMITING FATIGUE MECHANISM IN P/M NICKEL-BASED ALLOYS (POSTPRINT) 5a...paper, a micro structure-based model of the probability of occurrence of the minimum-lifetime, or the life-limiting, mechanism in powder processed Ni
Assessing wildfire occurrence probability in Pinus pinaster Ait. stands in Portugal
Marques, S.; Garcia-Gonzalo, J.; Botequim, B.; Ricardo, A.; Borges, J. G.; Tome, M.; Oliveira, M. M.
2012-11-01
Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) is an important conifer from the western Mediterranean Basin extending over 22% of the forest area in Portugal. In the last three decades nearly 4% of Maritime pine area has been burned by wildfires. Yet no wildfire occurrence probability models are available and forest and fire management planning activities are thus carried out mostly independently of each other. This paper presents research to address this gap. Specifically, it presents a model to assess wildfire occurrence probability in regular and pure Maritime pine stands in Portugal. Emphasis was in developing a model based on easily available inventory data so that it might be useful to forest managers. For that purpose, data from the last two Portuguese National Forest Inventories (NFI) and data from wildfire perimeters in the years from 1998 to 2004 and from 2006 to 2007 were used. A binary logistic regression model was build using biometrics data from the NFI. Biometric data included indicators that might be changed by operations prescribed in forest planning. Results showed that the probability of wildfire occurrence in a stand increases in stand located at steeper slopes and with high shrubs load while it decreases with precipitation and with stand basal area. These results are instrumental for assessing the impact of forest management options on wildfire probability thus helping forest managers to reduce the risk of wildfires. (Author) 57 refs.
Lamb, Jennifer Y.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Qualls, Carl P.
2017-01-01
Large gaps exist in our knowledge of the ecology of stream-breeding plethodontid salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Data describing where these salamanders are likely to occur along environmental gradients, as well as their likelihood of detection, are important for the prevention and management of amphibian declines. We used presence/absence data from leaf litter bag surveys and a hierarchical Bayesian multispecies single-season occupancy model to estimate the occurrence of five species of plethodontids across reaches in headwater streams in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Average detection probabilities were high (range = 0.432–0.942) and unaffected by sampling covariates specific to the use of litter bags (i.e., bag submergence, sampling season, in-stream cover). Estimates of occurrence probabilities differed substantially between species (range = 0.092–0.703) and were influenced by the size of the upstream drainage area and by the maximum proportion of the reach that dried. The effects of these two factors were not equivalent across species. Our results demonstrate that hierarchical multispecies models successfully estimate occurrence parameters for both rare and common stream-breeding plethodontids. The resulting models clarify how species are distributed within stream networks, and they provide baseline values that will be useful in evaluating the conservation statuses of plethodontid species within lotic systems in the Gulf Coastal Plain.
Cool, Geneviève; Lebel, Alexandre; Sadiq, Rehan; Rodriguez, Manuel J
2015-12-01
The regional variability of the probability of occurrence of high total trihalomethane (TTHM) levels was assessed using multilevel logistic regression models that incorporate environmental and infrastructure characteristics. The models were structured in a three-level hierarchical configuration: samples (first level), drinking water utilities (DWUs, second level) and natural regions, an ecological hierarchical division from the Quebec ecological framework of reference (third level). They considered six independent variables: precipitation, temperature, source type, seasons, treatment type and pH. The average probability of TTHM concentrations exceeding the targeted threshold was 18.1%. The probability was influenced by seasons, treatment type, precipitations and temperature. The variance at all levels was significant, showing that the probability of TTHM concentrations exceeding the threshold is most likely to be similar if located within the same DWU and within the same natural region. However, most of the variance initially attributed to natural regions was explained by treatment types and clarified by spatial aggregation on treatment types. Nevertheless, even after controlling for treatment type, there was still significant regional variability of the probability of TTHM concentrations exceeding the threshold. Regional variability was particularly important for DWUs using chlorination alone since they lack the appropriate treatment required to reduce the amount of natural organic matter (NOM) in source water prior to disinfection. Results presented herein could be of interest to authorities in identifying regions with specific needs regarding drinking water quality and for epidemiological studies identifying geographical variations in population exposure to disinfection by-products (DBPs).
Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy
2017-05-01
A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.
Meredith L McClure
Full Text Available Wild pigs (Sus scrofa, also known as wild swine, feral pigs, or feral hogs, are one of the most widespread and successful invasive species around the world. Wild pigs have been linked to extensive and costly agricultural damage and present a serious threat to plant and animal communities due to their rooting behavior and omnivorous diet. We modeled the current distribution of wild pigs in the United States to better understand the physiological and ecological factors that may determine their invasive potential and to guide future study and eradication efforts. Using national-scale wild pig occurrence data reported between 1982 and 2012 by wildlife management professionals, we estimated the probability of wild pig occurrence across the United States using a logistic discrimination function and environmental covariates hypothesized to influence the distribution of the species. Our results suggest the distribution of wild pigs in the U.S. was most strongly limited by cold temperatures and availability of water, and that they were most likely to occur where potential home ranges had higher habitat heterogeneity, providing access to multiple key resources including water, forage, and cover. High probability of occurrence was also associated with frequent high temperatures, up to a high threshold. However, this pattern is driven by pigs' historic distribution in warm climates of the southern U.S. Further study of pigs' ability to persist in cold northern climates is needed to better understand whether low temperatures actually limit their distribution. Our model highlights areas at risk of invasion as those with habitat conditions similar to those found in pigs' current range that are also near current populations. This study provides a macro-scale approach to generalist species distribution modeling that is applicable to other generalist and invasive species.
Guo, Zhixing; Li, Yijia
2017-01-01
The contribution of factors including fuel type, fire-weather conditions, topography and human activity to fire regime attributes (e.g. fire occurrence, size distribution and severity) has been intensively discussed. The relative importance of those factors in explaining the burn probability (BP), which is critical in terms of fire risk management, has been insufficiently addressed. Focusing on a subtropical coniferous forest with strong human disturbance in East China, our main objective was to evaluate and compare the relative importance of fuel composition, topography, and human activity for fire occurrence, size and BP. Local BP distribution was derived with stochastic fire simulation approach using detailed historical fire data (1990–2010) and forest-resource survey results, based on which our factor contribution analysis was carried out. Our results indicated that fuel composition had the greatest relative importance in explaining fire occurrence and size, but human activity explained most of the variance in BP. This implies that the influence of human activity is amplified through the process of overlapping repeated ignition and spreading events. This result emphasizes the status of strong human disturbance in local fire processes. It further confirms the need for a holistic perspective on factor contribution to fire likelihood, rather than focusing on individual fire regime attributes, for the purpose of fire risk management. PMID:28207837
Ye, Tao; Wang, Yao; Guo, Zhixing; Li, Yijia
2017-01-01
The contribution of factors including fuel type, fire-weather conditions, topography and human activity to fire regime attributes (e.g. fire occurrence, size distribution and severity) has been intensively discussed. The relative importance of those factors in explaining the burn probability (BP), which is critical in terms of fire risk management, has been insufficiently addressed. Focusing on a subtropical coniferous forest with strong human disturbance in East China, our main objective was to evaluate and compare the relative importance of fuel composition, topography, and human activity for fire occurrence, size and BP. Local BP distribution was derived with stochastic fire simulation approach using detailed historical fire data (1990-2010) and forest-resource survey results, based on which our factor contribution analysis was carried out. Our results indicated that fuel composition had the greatest relative importance in explaining fire occurrence and size, but human activity explained most of the variance in BP. This implies that the influence of human activity is amplified through the process of overlapping repeated ignition and spreading events. This result emphasizes the status of strong human disturbance in local fire processes. It further confirms the need for a holistic perspective on factor contribution to fire likelihood, rather than focusing on individual fire regime attributes, for the purpose of fire risk management.
Vidal-Martínez, Víctor M.; Torres-Irineo, Edgar; Romero, David; Gold-Bouchot, Gerardo; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Valdés-Lozano, David; Aguirre-Macedo, M. Leopoldina
2015-01-01
Background Understanding the environmental and anthropogenic factors influencing the probability of occurrence of the marine parasitic species is fundamental for determining the circumstances under which they can act as bioindicators of environmental impact. The aim of this study was to determine whether physicochemical variables, polyaromatic hydrocarbons or sewage discharge affect the probability of occurrence of the larval cestode Oncomegas wageneri, which infects the shoal flounder, Syaci...
Fung, D. C. N.; Wang, J. P.; Chang, S. H.; Chang, S. C.
2014-12-01
Using a revised statistical model built on past seismic probability models, the probability of different magnitude earthquakes occurring within variable timespans can be estimated. The revised model is based on Poisson distribution and includes the use of best-estimate values of the probability distribution of different magnitude earthquakes recurring from a fault from literature sources. Our study aims to apply this model to the Taipei metropolitan area with a population of 7 million, which lies in the Taipei Basin and is bounded by two normal faults: the Sanchaio and Taipei faults. The Sanchaio fault is suggested to be responsible for previous large magnitude earthquakes, such as the 1694 magnitude 7 earthquake in northwestern Taipei (Cheng et. al., 2010). Based on a magnitude 7 earthquake return period of 543 years, the model predicts the occurrence of a magnitude 7 earthquake within 20 years at 1.81%, within 79 years at 6.77% and within 300 years at 21.22%. These estimates increase significantly when considering a magnitude 6 earthquake; the chance of one occurring within the next 20 years is estimated to be 3.61%, 79 years at 13.54% and 300 years at 42.45%. The 79 year period represents the average lifespan of the Taiwan population. In contrast, based on data from 2013, the probability of Taiwan residents experiencing heart disease or malignant neoplasm is 11.5% and 29%. The inference of this study is that the calculated risk that the Taipei population is at from a potentially damaging magnitude 6 or greater earthquake occurring within their lifetime is just as great as of suffering from a heart attack or other health ailments.
Madhu, B.; Ashok, N. C.; Balasubramanian, S.
2014-11-01
Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to develop statistical model that can predict the probability of breast cancer in Southern Karnataka using the breast cancer occurrence data during 2007-2011. Independent socio-economic variables describing the breast cancer occurrence like age, education, occupation, parity, type of family, health insurance coverage, residential locality and socioeconomic status of each case was obtained. The models were developed as follows: i) Spatial visualization of the Urban- rural distribution of breast cancer cases that were obtained from the Bharat Hospital and Institute of Oncology. ii) Socio-economic risk factors describing the breast cancer occurrences were complied for each case. These data were then analysed using multinomial logistic regression analysis in a SPSS statistical software and relations between the occurrence of breast cancer across the socio-economic status and the influence of other socio-economic variables were evaluated and multinomial logistic regression models were constructed. iii) the model that best predicted the occurrence of breast cancer were identified. This multivariate logistic regression model has been entered into a geographic information system and maps showing the predicted probability of breast cancer occurrence in Southern Karnataka was created. This study demonstrates that Multinomial logistic regression is a valuable tool for developing models that predict the probability of breast cancer Occurrence in Southern Karnataka.
ERROR OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY OF TYPE I AND II IN MONITORING OF A SEEDER-FERTILIZER
W. G. Vale
2016-07-01
Full Text Available The monitoring of the seeder-fertilizer performance throughout the sowing grains becomes essential to ensure its operation and to determine in which moment the pause intervention during the operation should occur. However, a way to analyze the performance of the seeder-fertilizer can be done through the individual values control cards, which detect the presence of eventual causes due the seeding, becoming an important analysis/manager tool. In this way, this paper focuses in evaluate the probability of occurrence of the errors type I and II in the operational performance analysis of a seeder-fertilizer, using values of number one (1 σ, two (2 σ and three (3 σ multiples of the standard deviation. The experiment was performed in rural area within the county of Sinop – MT, during the crop 2014/15. The experimental design used was based on the statistical quality control logic, to monitor the variables throughout the operational course. Has been collected 120 sampling points in total, 60 being collected per day (at random moments, for each seeding type in a period of two days, for each variant analyzed. The quality indicators were the seeder-fertilizer driving wheels skidding and overall field capacity, all variants being collected during the soybean seeding. The major probability of the occurrence of errors type I é presented to all the quality indicators which use value one (1 σ and two (2 σ as standard deviation multiple. The driving wheel skidding, both in the conventional seeding and in the direct seeding can be evaluated using the value multiple of the standard deviation number three (3 σ. The overall field capacity on the conventional seeding system can be evaluated using the value multiple of the standard deviation number three (3 σ. And, the direct seeding can be evaluated using the value multiple of the standard deviation number two (2 σ.
Charvat, Hadrien; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Inoue, Manami; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sawada, Norie; Shimazu, Taichi; Yamaji, Taiki; Tsugane, Shoichiro
2016-01-15
Gastric cancer is a particularly important issue in Japan, where incidence rates are among the highest observed. In this work, we provide a risk prediction model allowing the estimation of the 10-year cumulative probability of gastric cancer occurrence. The study population consisted of 19,028 individuals from the Japanese Public Health Center cohort II who were followed-up from 1993 to 2009. A parametric survival model was used to assess the impact on the probability of gastric cancer of clinical and lifestyle-related risk factors in combination with serum anti-Helicobacter pylori antibody titres and pepsinogen I and pepsinogen II levels. Based on the resulting model, cumulative probability estimates were calculated and a simple risk scoring system was developed. A total of 412 cases of gastric cancer occurred during 270,854 person-years of follow-up. The final model included (besides the biological markers) age, gender, smoking status, family history of gastric cancer and consumption of highly salted food. The developed prediction model showed good predictive performance in terms of discrimination (optimism-corrected c-index: 0.768) and calibration (Nam and d'Agostino's χ(2) test: 14.78; p values = 0.06). Estimates of the 10-year probability of gastric cancer occurrence ranged from 0.04% (0.02, 0.1) to 14.87% (8.96, 24.14) for men and from 0.03% (0.02, 0.07) to 4.91% (2.71, 8.81) for women. In conclusion, we developed a risk prediction model for gastric cancer that combines clinical and biological markers. It might prompt individuals to modify their lifestyle habits, attend regular check-up visits or participate in screening programmes.
Andrade-Filho, J D; Scholte, R G C; Amaral, A L G; Shimabukuro, P H F; Carvalho, O S; Caldeira, R L
2017-09-01
Leishmaniases are serious diseases caused by trypanosomatid protozoans of the genus Leishmania transmitted by the bite of phlebotomine sand flies. We analyzed records pertaining to Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz and Neiva, 1912) and Lutzomyia cruzi (Mangabeira, 1938) in Brazil from the following sources: the collection of phlebotomine sand flies of the Centro de Pesquisas René Rachou/Fiocruz (FIOCRUZ-COLFLEB), the "SpeciesLink" (CRIA) database, from systematic surveys of scientific articles and gray literature (dissertations, theses, and communications), and disease data obtained from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases/Ministry of Health (SINAN/MS). Environmental data and ecological niche modeling (ESMS) using the approach of MaxEnt algorithm produced maps of occurrence probability for both Lu. longipalpis and Lu. cruzi. Lutzomyia longipalpis was found in 229 Brazilian municipalities and Lu. cruzi in 27. The species were sympatric in 16 municipalities of the Central-West region of Brazil. Our results show that Lu. longipalpis is widely distributed and associated with the high number of cases of visceral leishmaniasis reported in Brazil. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Kovaltsov, Gennady A
2014-01-01
We revisited assessments of the occurrence probability distribution of large events in solar energetic particles (SEP), based on measurements of cosmogenic radionuclides in lunar rocks. We present a combined cumulative occurrence probability distribution of SEP events based on three time scales: directly measured SEP fluences for the last 60 years; estimates based on terrestrial cosmogenic radionuclides 10Be and 14C for the multi-millennial (Holocene) time scale; and cosmogenic radionuclides measured in lunar rocks on the time scale of up to 1 Myr. All the three time scales yield a consistent distribution. The data suggest a strong rollover of the occurrence probability so that SEP events with the fluence of protons with energy >30 MeV greater than 10^{11} (protons /cm2/yr) are not expected at the Myr time scale.
Vidal-Martínez, Víctor M; Torres-Irineo, Edgar; Romero, David; Gold-Bouchot, Gerardo; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Valdés-Lozano, David; Aguirre-Macedo, M Leopoldina
2015-11-26
Understanding the environmental and anthropogenic factors influencing the probability of occurrence of the marine parasitic species is fundamental for determining the circumstances under which they can act as bioindicators of environmental impact. The aim of this study was to determine whether physicochemical variables, polyaromatic hydrocarbons or sewage discharge affect the probability of occurrence of the larval cestode Oncomegas wageneri, which infects the shoal flounder, Syacium gunteri, in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The study area included 162 sampling sites in the southern Gulf of Mexico and covered 288,205 km(2), where the benthic sediments, water and the shoal flounder individuals were collected. We used the boosted generalised additive models (boosted GAM) and the MaxEnt to examine the potential statistical relationships between the environmental variables (nutrients, contaminants and physicochemical variables from the water and sediments) and the probability of the occurrence of this parasite. The models were calibrated using all of the sampling sites (full area) with and without parasite occurrences (n = 162) and a polygon area that included sampling sites with a depth of 1500 m or less (n = 134). Oncomegas wageneri occurred at 29/162 sampling sites. The boosted GAM for the full area and the polygon area accurately predicted the probability of the occurrence of O. wageneri in the study area. By contrast, poor probabilities of occurrence were obtained with the MaxEnt models for the same areas. The variables with the highest frequencies of appearance in the models (proxies for the explained variability) were the polyaromatic hydrocarbons of high molecular weight (PAHH, 95 %), followed by a combination of nutrients, spatial variables and polyaromatic hydrocarbons of low molecular weight (PAHL, 5 %). The contribution of the PAHH to the variability was explained by the fact that these compounds, together with N and P, are carried by rivers that
无
2009-01-01
【说词】1. He can probably tell us the truth.2. Will it rain this afternoong ？ Probably【解语】作副词，意为“大概、或许”，表示可能性很大，通常指根据目前情况作出积极推测或判断；
Pandžić Jelena
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents the application of indicator kriging as a geostatistical method for the purpose of creating maps of precipitation occurrence probabilities on the territory of the Republic of Serbia for distinctive months during 2009. The difference between this approach to mapping and standard isohyetal maps, which describe precipitation intensity, lies in the fact that this approach points to the potential of the occurrence of a certain amount of precipitation at a specific location for a given time period. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III 47014, br. TR 36009 i br. III 43007
Cox, Ruth; Revie, Crawford W; Hurnik, Daniel; Sanchez, Javier
2016-09-01
Identification and quantification of pathogen threats need to be a priority for the Canadian swine industry so that resources can be focused where they will be most effective. Here we create a tool based on a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to model the interaction between biosecurity practices and the probability of occurrence of four different diseases on Canadian swine farms. The benefits of using this novel approach, in comparison to other methods, is that it enables us to explore both the complex interaction and the relative importance of biosecurity practices on the probability of disease occurrence. In order to build the BBN we used two datasets. The first dataset detailed biosecurity practices employed on 218 commercial swine farms across Canada in 2010. The second dataset detailed animal health status and disease occurrence on 90 of those farms between 2010 and 2012. We used expert judgement to identify 15 biosecurity practices that were considered the most important in mitigating disease occurrence on farms. These included: proximity to other livestock holdings, the health status of purchased stock, manure disposal methods, as well as the procedures for admitting vehicles and staff. Four diseases were included in the BBN: Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), (a prevalent endemic aerosol pathogen), Swine influenza (SI) (a viral respiratory aerosol pathogen), Mycoplasma pneumonia (MP) (an endemic respiratory disease spread by close contact and aerosol) and Swine dysentery (SD) (an enteric disease which is re-emerging in North America). This model indicated that the probability of disease occurrence was influenced by a number of manageable biosecurity practices. Increased probability of PRRS and of MP were associated with spilt feed (feed that did not fall directly in a feeding trough), not being disposed of immediately and with manure being brought onto the farm premises and spread on land adjacent to the pigs. Increased probabilities of SI
An homotopy of isometries related to a probability density
Groux, Roland
2011-01-01
We are studying here a family of probability density functions indexed by a real parameter, and constructed from homographic relations between associated Stieltjes transforms. From the analysis of orthogonal polynomials we deduce a family of isometries in relation to the classical operators creating secondary polynomials and we give an application to the explicit resolution of specific integral equations.
Bailey, Larissa L.; Reid, Janice A.; Forsman, Eric D.; Nichols, James D.
2009-01-01
Barred owls (Strix varia) have recently expanded their range and now encompass the entire range of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). This expansion has led to two important issues of concern for management of northern spotted owls: (1) possible competitive interactions between the two species that could contribute to population declines of northern spotted owls, and (2) possible changes in vocalization behavior and detection probabilities of northern spotted owls induced by presence of barred owls. We used a two-species occupancy model to investigate whether there was evidence of competitive exclusion between the two species at study locations in Oregon, USA. We simultaneously estimated detection probabilities for both species and determined if the presence of one species influenced the detection of the other species. Model selection results and associated parameter estimates provided no evidence that barred owls excluded spotted owls from territories. We found strong evidence that detection probabilities differed for the two species, with higher probabilities for northern spotted owls that are the object of current surveys. Non-detection of barred owls is very common in surveys for northern spotted owls, and detection of both owl species was negatively influenced by the presence of the congeneric species. Our results suggest that analyses directed at hypotheses of barred owl effects on demographic or occupancy vital rates of northern spotted owls need to deal adequately with imperfect and variable detection probabilities for both species.
Fibonacci Sequence, Recurrence Relations, Discrete Probability Distributions and Linear Convolution
Rajan, Arulalan; Rao, Ashok; Jamadagni, H S
2012-01-01
The classical Fibonacci sequence is known to exhibit many fascinating properties. In this paper, we explore the Fibonacci sequence and integer sequences generated by second order linear recurrence relations with positive integer coe?cients from the point of view of probability distributions that they induce. We obtain the generalizations of some of the known limiting properties of these probability distributions and present certain optimal properties of the classical Fibonacci sequence in this context. In addition, we also look at the self linear convolution of linear recurrence relations with positive integer coefficients. Analysis of self linear convolution is focused towards locating the maximum in the resulting sequence. This analysis, also highlights the influence that the largest positive real root, of the "characteristic equation" of the linear recurrence relations with positive integer coefficients, has on the location of the maximum. In particular, when the largest positive real root is 2,the locatio...
Estimating the probability of arsenic occurrence in domestic wells in the United States
Ayotte, J.; Medalie, L.; Qi, S.; Backer, L. F.; Nolan, B. T.
2016-12-01
Approximately 43 million people (about 14 percent of the U.S. population) rely on privately owned domestic wells as their source of drinking water. Unlike public water systems, which are regulated by the Safe Drinking Water Act, there is no comprehensive national program to ensure that the water from domestic wells is routinely tested and that is it safe to drink. A study published in 2009 from the National Water-Quality Assessment Program of the U.S. Geological Survey assessed water-quality conditions from 2,100 domestic wells within 48 states and reported that more than one in five (23 percent) of the sampled wells contained one or more contaminants at a concentration greater than a human-health benchmark. In addition, there are many activities such as resource extraction, climate change-induced drought, and changes in land use patterns that could potentially affect the quality of the ground water source for domestic wells. The Health Studies Branch (HSB) of the National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, created a Clean Water for Health Program to help address domestic well concerns. The goals of this program are to identify emerging public health issues associated with using domestic wells for drinking water and develop plans to address these issues. As part of this effort, HSB in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey has created probability models to estimate the probability of arsenic occurring at various concentrations in domestic wells in the U.S. We will present preliminary results of the project, including estimates of the population supplied by domestic wells that is likely to have arsenic greater than 10 micrograms per liter. Nationwide, we estimate this to be just over 2 million people. Logistic regression model results showing probabilities of arsenic greater than the Maximum Contaminant Level for public supply wells of 10 micrograms per liter in domestic wells in the U.S., based on data for arsenic
Using of bayesian networks to estimate the probability of "NATECH" scenario occurrence
Dobes, Pavel; Dlabka, Jakub; Jelšovská, Katarína; Polorecká, Mária; Baudišová, Barbora; Danihelka, Pavel
2015-04-01
In the twentieth century, implementation of Bayesian statistics and probability was not much used (may be it wasn't a preferred approach) in the area of natural and industrial risk analysis and management. Neither it was used within analysis of so called NATECH accidents (chemical accidents triggered by natural events, such as e.g. earthquakes, floods, lightning etc.; ref. E. Krausmann, 2011, doi:10.5194/nhess-11-921-2011). Main role, from the beginning, played here so called "classical" frequentist probability (ref. Neyman, 1937), which rely up to now especially on the right/false results of experiments and monitoring and didn't enable to count on expert's beliefs, expectations and judgements (which is, on the other hand, one of the once again well known pillars of Bayessian approach to probability). In the last 20 or 30 years, there is possible to observe, through publications and conferences, the Renaissance of Baysssian statistics into many scientific disciplines (also into various branches of geosciences). The necessity of a certain level of trust in expert judgment within risk analysis is back? After several decades of development on this field, it could be proposed following hypothesis (to be checked): "We couldn't estimate probabilities of complex crisis situations and their TOP events (many NATECH events could be classified as crisis situations or emergencies), only by classical frequentist approach, but also by using of Bayessian approach (i.e. with help of prestaged Bayessian Network including expert belief and expectation as well as classical frequentist inputs). Because - there is not always enough quantitative information from monitoring of historical emergencies, there could be several dependant or independant variables necessary to consider and in generally - every emergency situation always have a little different run." In this topic, team of authors presents its proposal of prestaged typized Bayessian network model for specified NATECH scenario
Reduced reward-related probability learning in schizophrenia patients
Yılmaz A
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Alpaslan Yilmaz1,2, Fatma Simsek2, Ali Saffet Gonul2,31Department of Sport and Health, Physical Education and Sports College, Erciyes University, Kayseri, Turkey; 2Department of Psychiatry, SoCAT Lab, Ege University School of Medicine, Bornova, Izmir, Turkey; 3Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Mercer University School of Medicine, Macon, GA, USAAbstract: Although it is known that individuals with schizophrenia demonstrate marked impairment in reinforcement learning, the details of this impairment are not known. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that reward-related probability learning is altered in schizophrenia patients. Twenty-five clinically stable schizophrenia patients and 25 age- and gender-matched controls participated in the study. A simple gambling paradigm was used in which five different cues were associated with different reward probabilities (50%, 67%, and 100%. Participants were asked to make their best guess about the reward probability of each cue. Compared with controls, patients had significant impairment in learning contingencies on the basis of reward-related feedback. The correlation analyses revealed that the impairment of patients partially correlated with the severity of negative symptoms as measured on the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale but that it was not related to antipsychotic dose. In conclusion, the present study showed that the schizophrenia patients had impaired reward-based learning and that this was independent from their medication status.Keywords: reinforcement learning, reward, punishment, motivation
Evaluating probability forecasts
Lai, Tze Leung; Shen, David Bo; 10.1214/11-AOS902
2012-01-01
Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability forecasts. This approach uses loss functions relating the predicted to the actual probabilities of the events and applies martingale theory to exploit the temporal structure between the forecast and the subsequent occurrence or nonoccurrence of the event.
Coates, Peter S.; Howe, Kristy B.; Casazza, Michael L.; Delehanty, David J.
2014-01-01
Energy-related infrastructure and other human enterprises within sagebrush steppe of the American West often results in changes that promote common raven (Corvus corax; hereafter, raven) populations. Ravens, a generalist predator capable of behavioral innovation, present a threat to many species of conservation concern. We evaluate the effects of detailed features of an altered landscape on the probability of raven occurrence using extensive raven survey (n= 1045) and mapping data from southern Idaho, USA. We found nonlinear relationships between raven occurrence and distances to transmission lines, roads, and facilities. Most importantly, raven occurrence was greater with presence of transmission lines up to 2.2 km from the corridor.We further explain variation in raven occurrence along anthropogenic features based on the amount of non-native vegetation and cover type edge, such that ravens select fragmented sagebrush stands with patchy, exotic vegetative introgression. Raven occurrence also increased with greater length of edge formed by the contact of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate spp.) with non-native vegetation cover types. In consideration of increasing alteration of sagebrush steppe, these findings will be useful for planning energy transmission corridor placement and other management activities where conservation of sagebrush obligate species is a priority.
Otero, Federico; Norte, Federico; Araneo, Diego
2016-10-01
The aim of this work is to obtain an index for predicting the probability of occurrence of zonda event at surface level from sounding data at Mendoza city, Argentine. To accomplish this goal, surface zonda wind events were previously found with an objective classification method (OCM) only considering the surface station values. Once obtained the dates and the onset time of each event, the prior closest sounding for each event was taken to realize a principal component analysis (PCA) that is used to identify the leading patterns of the vertical structure of the atmosphere previously to a zonda wind event. These components were used to construct the index model. For the PCA an entry matrix of temperature (T) and dew point temperature (Td) anomalies for the standard levels between 850 and 300 hPa was build. The analysis yielded six significant components with a 94 % of the variance explained and the leading patterns of favorable weather conditions for the development of the phenomenon were obtained. A zonda/non-zonda indicator c can be estimated by a logistic multiple regressions depending on the PCA component loadings, determining a zonda probability index widehat{c} calculable from T and Td profiles and it depends on the climatological features of the region. The index showed 74.7 % efficiency. The same analysis was performed by adding surface values of T and Td from Mendoza Aero station increasing the index efficiency to 87.8 %. The results revealed four significantly correlated PCs with a major improvement in differentiating zonda cases and a reducing of the uncertainty interval.
Wang, Ying; Song, Chongzhen; Lin, Qigen; Li, Juan
2016-04-01
The Newmark displacement model has been used to predict earthquake-triggered landslides. Logistic regression (LR) is also a common landslide hazard assessment method. We combined the Newmark displacement model and LR and applied them to Wenchuan County and Beichuan County in China, which were affected by the Ms. 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th, 2008, to develop a mechanism-based landslide occurrence probability model and improve the predictive accuracy. A total of 1904 landslide sites in Wenchuan County and 3800 random non-landslide sites were selected as the training dataset. We applied the Newmark model and obtained the distribution of permanent displacement (Dn) for a 30 × 30 m grid. Four factors (Dn, topographic relief, and distances to drainages and roads) were used as independent variables for LR. Then, a combined model was obtained, with an AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.797 for Wenchuan County. A total of 617 landslide sites and non-landslide sites in Beichuan County were used as a validation dataset with AUC = 0.753. The proposed method may also be applied to earthquake-induced landslides in other regions.
Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria
2014-05-01
Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII
Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...
Computer routines for probability distributions, random numbers, and related functions
Kirby, W.H.
1980-01-01
Use of previously codes and tested subroutines simplifies and speeds up program development and testing. This report presents routines that can be used to calculate various probability distributions and other functions of importance in statistical hydrology. The routines are designed as general-purpose Fortran subroutines and functions to be called from user-written main programs. The probability distributions provided include the beta, chisquare, gamma, Gaussian (normal), Pearson Type III (tables and approximation), and Weibull. Also provided are the distributions of the Grubbs-Beck outlier test, Kolmogorov 's and Smirnov 's D, Student 's t, noncentral t (approximate), and Snedecor F tests. Other mathematical functions include the Bessel function I (subzero), gamma and log-gamma functions, error functions and exponential integral. Auxiliary services include sorting and printer plotting. Random number generators for uniform and normal numbers are provided and may be used with some of the above routines to generate numbers from other distributions. (USGS)
Efficiency issues related to probability density function comparison
Kelly, P.M.; Cannon, M.; Barros, J.E.
1996-03-01
The CANDID project (Comparison Algorithm for Navigating Digital Image Databases) employs probability density functions (PDFs) of localized feature information to represent the content of an image for search and retrieval purposes. A similarity measure between PDFs is used to identify database images that are similar to a user-provided query image. Unfortunately, signature comparison involving PDFs is a very time-consuming operation. In this paper, we look into some efficiency considerations when working with PDFS. Since PDFs can take on many forms, we look into tradeoffs between accurate representation and efficiency of manipulation for several data sets. In particular, we typically represent each PDF as a Gaussian mixture (e.g. as a weighted sum of Gaussian kernels) in the feature space. We find that by constraining all Gaussian kernels to have principal axes that are aligned to the natural axes of the feature space, computations involving these PDFs are simplified. We can also constrain the Gaussian kernels to be hyperspherical rather than hyperellipsoidal, simplifying computations even further, and yielding an order of magnitude speedup in signature comparison. This paper illustrates the tradeoffs encountered when using these constraints.
Marine mimivirus relatives are probably large algal viruses
Claverie Jean-Michel
2008-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Acanthamoeba polyphaga mimivirus is the largest known ds-DNA virus and its 1.2 Mb-genome sequence has revealed many unique features. Mimivirus occupies an independent lineage among eukaryotic viruses and its known hosts include only species from the Acanthamoeba genus. The existence of mimivirus relatives was first suggested by the analysis of the Sargasso Sea metagenomic data. Results We now further demonstrate the presence of numerous "mimivirus-like" sequences using a larger marine metagenomic data set. We also show that the DNA polymerase sequences from three algal viruses (CeV01, PpV01, PoV01 infecting different marine algal species (Chrysochromulina ericina, Phaeocystis pouchetii, Pyramimonas orientalis are very closely related to their homolog in mimivirus. Conclusion Our results suggest that the numerous mimivirus-related sequences identified in marine environments are likely to originate from diverse large DNA viruses infecting phytoplankton. Micro-algae thus constitute a new category of potential hosts in which to look for new species of Mimiviridae.
Occurrence of mastitis pathogens in relation to somatic cells
Marcela Vyletělová Klimešová
2013-01-01
Full Text Available There were examined 161 cows from 4 farms in total. The suspect animals were selected according to viscosity test results, clinical symptoms and somatic cell count (SCC. Milk samples were examined for the presence of pathogens and for SCC. 55 mastitis pathogens were identified. The most frequently isolated species was Enterococcus faecalis (n = 20, followed by Staphylococcus aureus (n = 6 and Streptococcus uberis (n = 5. The SCC ranged from 9 to 24 204 ths.ml−1. There was positive occurrence of bacteria genus Staphylococcus and Enterococcus at lower SCC (50 ths.ml−1 and at higher SCC numbers (> 300 ths. ml−1 bacteria genus Streptococcus, Enterobacter and Escherichia coli. Differences in SCC were significant (P < 0.001 in negative samples xg 131 SCC versus 491 for positive, 611 for staphylococci and 464 ths.ml−1 for other positive. SCC discrimination limit for practical likelihood of pathogen occurrence estimation in infectious sample groups was calculated. This limit for suspicion of infection is 159 for positive group, 113 for staphylococci and 174 ths.ml−1 for other positive. This could be possible to recommend the value 174 ths.ml−1 for practical use with target to apply preventive or curative measures.
Rosario Conticello, Federico; Cioffi, Francesco; Lall, Upmanu; Merz, Bruno
2017-04-01
The role of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in inducing High Streamflow Events (HSEs) in Europe has been confirmed by numerous studies. Here, we assume as HSEs the streamflows exceeding the 99th percentile of daily flowrate time series measured at streamflow gauges. Among the indicators of ARs are: the Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) and Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT). For both indicators the literature suggests thresholds in order to identify ARs. Furthermore, local thresholds of such indices are used to assess the occurrence of HSEs in a given region. Recent research on ARs still leaves room for open issues: 1) The literature is not unanimous in defining which of the two indicators is better. 2) The selection of the thresholds is based on subjective assessments. 3) The predictability of HSEs at the local scale associated with these indices seems to be weak and to exist only in the winter months. In order to address these issues, we propose an original methodology: (i) to choose between the two indicators which one is the most suitable for HSEs predictions; (ii) to select IWT and/or IVT (IVT/IWV) local thresholds in a more objective way; (iii) to implement an algorithm able to determine whether a IVT/IWV configuration is inducing HSEs, regardless of the season. In pursuing this goal, besides IWV and IVT fields, we introduce as further predictor the geopotential height at 850 hPa (GPH850) field, that implicitly contains information about the pattern of temperature, direction and intensity of the winds. In fact, the introduction of the GPH850 would help to improve the assessment of the occurrence of HSEs throughout the year. It is also plausible to hypothesize, that IVT/IWV local thresholds could vary in dependence of the GPH850 configuration. In this study, we propose a model to statistically relate these predictors, IVT/IWV and GPH850, to the simultaneous occurrence of HSEs in one or more streamflow gauges in UK and Germany. Historical data from 57 streamflow gauges
Understanding the Probability of a Disability Resulting from Work-Related Injuries
2015-07-15
rate or disability probability and be related to worker characteristics such as gender . As a result, gender may appear to affect incidence rates and...work following a work- related injury. FECA staff members record a wealth of information in a database when they administer the program. The public ...Understanding the Probability of a Disability Resulting from Work- Related Injuries Nan L. Maxwell, PhD Mathematica Policy Research
McDowell, Kaleb
2002-05-10
Classical views on the preparation of voluntary movement involve separate motor and cognitive processes. Recent neurophysiological evidence challenges this dichotomy. Recordings from within the motor cortices have demonstrated that cognitive factors modulate neural activity. This issue was examined in event-related desynchronizations (ERDs) by using a goal-directed pointing paradigm. The ERD, which is typically recorded in response to self-paced finger movements, has been demonstrated to reflect specific movement parameters. Cognitive factors were introduced by manipulating probability and the relative direction of the responses in a choice reaction time task. The results demonstrated that probability influences the 20 Hz ERD.
Fast Algorithms of Mining Probability Functional Dependency Rules in Relational Database
TAO Xiaopeng; ZHOU Aoying; HU Yunfa
2000-01-01
This paper defines a new kind of rule, probability functional dependency rule. The functional dependency degree can be depicted by this kind of rule. Five algorithms, from the simple to the complex, are presented to mine this kind of rule in different condition. The related theorems are proved to ensure the high efficiency and the correctness of the above algorithms.
Wicklein, S.M.; Gain, W.S.
1999-01-01
stormwater retention (reducing peak discharges without later release). Detention of freshwater discharges increased the probability of specific- conductance values falling below a given limit (20,000 microsiemens per centimeter) for all sites but one. The retention of freshwater input to the system decreased the likelihood of falling below a selected limit of specific conductance at all sites. For limits of specific conductance (1,000 microsiemens per centimeter or 20,000 microsiemens per centimeter, depending on the site), the predicted days of occurrence below a limit decreased ranging from 17 to 68 percent of the predicted days of occurrence for unregulated flow. The primary finding to be drawn from the discharge-salinity analysis is that an empirical-response model alone does not provide adequate information to assess the response of the system to changes in flow regime. Whether a given level of discharge can produce a given response on a given day is not as important as the probability of that response on a given day and over a period of many days. A deterministic model of the St. Sebastian River estuary based only on discharge would predict that retention of discharge peaks should increase the average salinity conditions in the St. Sebastian River estuary. The probabilistic model produces a very different response indicating that salinity can decrease by a power of three as discharges increase, and that random factors can predominate and control salinity until discharges increase sufficiently to flush the entire system of saltwater.
Boiselet, Aurelien; Scotti, Oona; Lyon-Caen, Hélène
2014-05-01
-SISCOR Working Group. On the basis of this consensual logic tree, median probability of occurrences of M>=6 events were computed for the region of study. Time-dependent models (Brownian Passage time and Weibull probability distributions) were also explored. The probability of a M>=6.0 event is found to be greater in the western region compared to the eastern part of the Corinth rift, whether a fault-based or a classical seismotectonic approach is used. Percentile probability estimates are also provided to represent the range of uncertainties in the results. The percentile results show that, in general, probability estimates following the classical approach (based on the definition of seismotectonic source zones), cover the median values estimated following the fault-based approach. On the contrary, the fault-based approach in this region is still affected by a high degree of uncertainty, because of the poor constraints on the 3D geometries of the faults and the high uncertainties in their slip rates.
Strappini, A.C.
2012-01-01
Bruises on cattle carcass affect the quality of the meat and are indicators of poor welfare conditions. According to the literature the occurrence of bruises is related to pre- slaughter conditions, however their contribution is not clear for Chilean cattle. The aim of this thesis was to provide a b
Occurrence and distribution of Vibrio parahaemolyticus and related organisms in the Arabian Sea
LokaBharathi, P.A.; Nair, S.; Chandramohan, D.
The occurrence and distribution of Vibrio parahaemolyticus and related organisms were studied from offshore water samples (Lat. 10 degrees N and Long. 65 degrees to 69 degrees E) collected at 5, 10, 50, 100, 200 and 500 m depths and in the surface...
LokaBharathi, P.A.; Ramaiah, N.; Chandramohan, D.
The occurrence and distribution of Vibrio parahaemolyticus and related organisms were studied from offshore water samples (Lat. 10 degrees N and Long. 65 degrees to 69 degrees E) collected at 5, 10, 50, 100, 200 and 500 m depths and in the surface...
Occurrence of Salmonella in retail beef and related meat products in Zaria, Nigeria
Tafida, S.Y.; Kabir, J.; Kwaga, J.K.P.;
2013-01-01
. This is more likely where surveillance and regulatory control is weak. There is however limited information on the occurrence of these pathogens in foods in Nigeria. The extent of contamination of retail-beef and related meat products with Salmonellae in Zaria was evaluated. A total of 435 retailed beef...
Improved detection of event-related functional MRI signals using probability functions.
Hagberg, G E; Zito, G; Patria, F; Sanes, J N
2001-11-01
Selecting an optimal event distribution for experimental use in event-related fMRI studies can require the generation of large numbers of event sequences with characteristics hard to control. The use of known probability distributions offers the possibility to control event timing and constrain the search space for finding optimal event sequences. We investigated different probability distributions in terms of response estimation (estimation efficiency), detectability (detection power, parameter estimation efficiency, sensitivity to true positives), and false-positive activation. Numerous simulated event sequences were generated selecting interevent intervals (IEI) from the uniform, uniform permuted, Latin square, exponential, binomial, Poisson, chi(2), geometric, and bimodal probability distributions and fixed IEI. Event sequences from the bimodal distribution, like block designs, had the best performance for detection and the poorest for estimation, while high estimation and detectability occurred for the long-decay exponential distribution. The uniform distribution also yielded high estimation efficiency, but probability functions with a long tail toward higher IEI, such as the geometric and the chi(2) distributions, had superior detectability. The distributions with the best detection performance also had a relatively high incidence of false positives, in contrast to the ordered distributions (Latin square and uniform permuted). The predictions of improved sensitivities for distributions with long tails were confirmed with empirical data. Moreover, the Latin square design yielded detection of activated voxels similar to the chi(2) distribution. These results indicate that high detection and suitable behavioral designs have compatibility for application of functional MRI methods to experiments requiring complex designs.
Analyzing the relative efficacy of student assessment techniques using Conditional Probability
Mujtaba, Abid H
2016-01-01
Academics often attempt to analyze problems in pedagogy on the basis of anecdotes when they should be using an evidence based, data driven approach. This paper presents a relatively simple technique for analyzing the relative efficacy of different types of questions when it comes to judging the conceptual understanding of students. The technique is illustrated using a case-study in which a carefully constructed multi-part question (with binary, descriptive, and computational parts) was given to a group of students. The responses were graded and assigned a boolean value to denote success or failure. The boolean values were counted to calculate the empirical probability of success in each type of question and correlations between the different types was analyzed by calculating conditional probabilities. The analysis revealed that while success in answering the descriptive question guaranteed success in the other two types the converse was far from true. Binary and computational questions were revealed to be poo...
王哲; 李海峰
2015-01-01
在阐述地质灾害区划涵义和建立评价指标体系重要性的基础上，较为系统的说明了评价指标体系建立的原则和方法，并结合绵阳市地质灾害分布与地质环境条件之间的关系，建立了绵阳市地质灾害易发性区划的评价指标体系，最后，应用层次分析法确定了各评价指标的权重，得出降雨量指标在地质灾害易发性区划中的作用最为显著，权重值为0.2533，其次为地质灾害分布密度指标，权重值为0.2000。%Based on expounding signification about zoning of geological hazard probability of occurrence and importance of establishing system of evaluation index,the text systematically expatiates principle of establishing system of evaluation index. Simultaneously,in the light of the princi-ple and the relation between distribution of geological hazards and conditions of geological environment,the text establishes system of evaluation index on zoning of geological hazard probability of occurrence for Mianyang city. Finally,the text applies the analytic hierarchy process to ascer-tain weight of evaluation index,and comes to the conclusion that weight of rainfall index is maximal and the next is distribution density of geolog-ical hazards index,and their values of weight respectively are 0. 253 3 and 0. 200 0.
Denne, R.A.; Sen Gupta, B.K. (Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge (USA))
1990-09-01
The distribution record of benthic foraminifera in late Pleistocene and Recent sediments of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico indicates that stratigraphic occurrences of species are affected by paleoceanography Two species that are very common in the modern gulf, Bulimina alazanensis and Osangularia culter, were not present in the area during the last glacial, owing to the absence of Subantarctic Intermediate Water. They reappeared at about 12,500 YBP, with the reintroduction of this water mass into the gulf At the same time, Valvulineria sp. A, common during the last glacial, disappeared. This was caused by the cessation of production of the North Atlantic Intermediate Water during the deglaciation. These events, probably isochronous throughout the gulf, do not represent the true first and last occurrences of the species, but may prove useful for the recognition of significant stratigraphic datums. Overall water-depth changes or bathymetric shifts of water-mass boundaries may lead to the disappearance of certain species in one area, but not in others. This results in a diachronous stratigraphic datum, or stratigraphic climbing. Even planktonic foraminifera can be affected by such processes, because of narrowly stenothermal and stenohaline adaptations of many species, in the context of shoreline shifts and climatic changes.
The relative impact of sizing errors on steam generator tube failure probability
Cizelj, L.; Dvorsek, T. [Jozef Stefan Inst., Ljubljana (Slovenia)
1998-07-01
The Outside Diameter Stress Corrosion Cracking (ODSCC) at tube support plates is currently the major degradation mechanism affecting the steam generator tubes made of Inconel 600. This caused development and licensing of degradation specific maintenance approaches, which addressed two main failure modes of the degraded piping: tube rupture; and excessive leakage through degraded tubes. A methodology aiming at assessing the efficiency of a given set of possible maintenance approaches has already been proposed by the authors. It pointed out better performance of the degradation specific over generic approaches in (1) lower probability of single and multiple steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), (2) lower estimated accidental leak rates and (3) less tubes plugged. A sensitivity analysis was also performed pointing out the relative contributions of uncertain input parameters to the tube rupture probabilities. The dominant contribution was assigned to the uncertainties inherent to the regression models used to correlate the defect size and tube burst pressure. The uncertainties, which can be estimated from the in-service inspections, are further analysed in this paper. The defect growth was found to have significant and to some extent unrealistic impact on the probability of single tube rupture. Since the defect growth estimates were based on the past inspection records they strongly depend on the sizing errors. Therefore, an attempt was made to filter out the sizing errors and to arrive at more realistic estimates of the defect growth. The impact of different assumptions regarding sizing errors on the tube rupture probability was studied using a realistic numerical example. The data used is obtained from a series of inspection results from Krsko NPP with 2 Westinghouse D-4 steam generators. The results obtained are considered useful in safety assessment and maintenance of affected steam generators. (author)
Wilson, T.L.; Johnson, E.J.; Bissonette, J.A.
2009-01-01
There is debate among ecologists about whether total habitat area or patch arrangement contributes most to population and/or community responses to fragmented or patchy landscapes. We tested the relative effects of patch area and isolation for predicting bird occurrence in a naturally patchy landscape in the Bear River Mountains of Northern Utah, USA. We selected focal patches (mountain meadows) ranging in elevation from 1,920 to 2,860 m and in size from 0.6 to 182 ha. Breeding birds were sampled in each focal meadow during the summers of 2003 and 2004 using variable-distance point transects. Logistic regression and likelihood-based model selection were used to determine the relationship between likelihood of occurrence of three bird species (Brewer's sparrow, vesper sparrow, and white-crowned sparrow) and area, isolation, and proximity metrics. We used model weights and model-averaged confidence intervals to assess the importance of each predictor variable. Plots of area versus isolation were used to evaluate complex relationships between the variables. We found that meadow area was the most important variable for explaining occurrence for two species, and that isolation was the most important for the other. We also found that the absolute distance was more appropriate for evaluating isolation responses than was the species-specific proximity metric. Our findings add clarity to the debate between ecologists regarding the relative importance of area and isolation in species responses to patchy landscapes.
The possible statistical relation of Pc1 pulsations to Earthquake occurrence at low latitudes
J. Bortnik
2008-09-01
Full Text Available We examine the association between earthquakes and Pc1 pulsations observed at a low-latitude station in Parkfield, California. The period under examination is ~7.5 years in total, from February 1999 to July 2006, and we use an automatic identification algorithm to extract information on Pc1 pulsations from the magnetometer data. These pulsations are then statistically correlated to earthquakes from the USGS NEIC catalog within a radius of 200 km around the magnetometer, and M>3.0. Results indicate that there is an enhanced occurrence probability of Pc1 pulsations ~5–15 days in advance of the earthquakes, during the daytime. We quantify the statistical significance and show that such an enhancement is unlikely to have occurred due to chance alone. We then examine the effect of declustering our earthquake catalog, and show that even though significance decreases, there is still a statistically significant daytime enhancement prior to the earthquakes. Finally, we select only daytime Pc1 pulsations as the fiducial time of our analysis, and show that earthquakes are ~3–5 times more likely to occur in the week following these pulsations, than normal. Comparing these results to other events, it is preliminarily shown that the normal earthquake probability is unaffected by geomagnetic activity, or a random event sequence.
Dependent sets of a family of relations of full measure on a probability space
Jin-cheng XIONG; Feng TAN; Jie L(U)
2007-01-01
For a probability space (X, (B), μ) a subfamily (F) of the σ-algebra (B) is said to be a regular base if every B ∈ (B) can be arbitrarily approached by some member of (F) which contains B in the sense of the measure theory. Assume that {Rγ}γ∈r is a countable family of relations of the full measure on a probability space (X, (B), μ), i.e. for every γ ∈ Г there is a positive integer sγ such that Rγ (∩) Xsγ with μsγ(Rγ) = 1. In the present paper we show that if (X, (B), μ) has a regular base, the cardinality of which is not greater than the cardinality of the continuum, then there exists a set K (∩) X with μ*(K) = 1 such that (x1,...,xsγ) ∈Rγ for any γ ∈ Г and for any sγ distinct elements x1,... ,xsγ of K, where μ* is the outer measure induced by the measure μ. Moreover, an application of the result mentioned above is given to the dynamical systems determined by the iterates of measure-preserving transformations.
Dependent sets of a family of relations of full measure on a probability space
2007-01-01
For a probability space (X, B,μ) a subfamily F of theσ-algebra B is said to be a regular base if every B∈B can be arbitrarily approached by some member of F which contains B in the sense of the measure theory. Assume that {γr}γ∈Γis a countable family of relations of the full measure on a probability space (X,B,μ), i.e. for everyγ∈Γthere is a positive integer sγsuch that Rγ(?)Xsγwithμsγ(Rγ) = 1. In the present paper we show that if (X, B,μ) has a regular base, the cardinality of which is not greater than the cardinality of the continuum, then there exists a set K(?)X withμ*(K) = 1 such that (x1,...,xsγ)∈γr for anyγ∈Γand for any sγdistinct elements x1,..., xsγof K, whereμ* is the outer measure induced by the measureμ. Moreover, an application of the result mentioned above is given to the dynamical systems determined by the iterates of measure-preserving transformations.
Duris, Joseph W.; Reif, Andrew G.; Donna A. Crouse,; Isaacs, Natasha M.
2013-01-01
The occurrence and distribution of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and bacterial and protozoan pathogens are controlled by diverse factors. To investigate these factors in Pennsylvania streams, 217 samples were collected quarterly from a 27-station water-quality monitoring network from July 2007 through August 2009. Samples were analyzed for concentrations of Escherichia coli (EC) and enterococci (ENT) indicator bacteria, concentrations of Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts, and the presence of four genes related to pathogenic types of EC (eaeA, stx2, stx1, rfbO157) plus three microbial source tracking (MST) gene markers that are also associated with pathogenic ENT and EC (esp, LTIIa, STII). Water samples were concurrently analyzed for basic water chemistry, physical measures of water quality, nutrients, metals, and a suite of 79 organic compounds that included hormones, pharmaceuticals, and antibiotics. For each sample location, stream discharge was measured by using standardized methods at the time of sample collection, and ancillary sample site information, such as land use and geological characteristics, was compiled. Samples exceeding recreational water quality criteria were more likely to contain all measured pathogen genes but notCryptosporidium or Giardia (oo)cysts. FIB and Giardia density and frequency of eaeA gene occurrence were significantly related to season. When discharge at a sampling location was high (>75th percentile of daily mean discharge), there were greater densities of FIB and Giardia, and the stx2, rfbO157, STII, and esp genes were found more frequently than at other discharge conditions. Giardia occurrence was likely related to nonpoint sources, which are highly influential during seasonal overland transport resulting from snowmelt and elevated precipitation in late winter and spring in Pennsylvania. When MST markers of human, swine, or bovine origin were present, samples more frequently carried the eaeA, stx2
Duris, Joseph W; Reif, Andrew G; Krouse, Donna A; Isaacs, Natasha M
2013-01-01
The occurrence and distribution of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and bacterial and protozoan pathogens are controlled by diverse factors. To investigate these factors in Pennsylvania streams, 217 samples were collected quarterly from a 27-station water-quality monitoring network from July 2007 through August 2009. Samples were analyzed for concentrations of Escherichia coli (EC) and enterococci (ENT) indicator bacteria, concentrations of Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts, and the presence of four genes related to pathogenic types of EC (eaeA, stx2, stx1, rfb(O157)) plus three microbial source tracking (MST) gene markers that are also associated with pathogenic ENT and EC (esp, LTIIa, STII). Water samples were concurrently analyzed for basic water chemistry, physical measures of water quality, nutrients, metals, and a suite of 79 organic compounds that included hormones, pharmaceuticals, and antibiotics. For each sample location, stream discharge was measured by using standardized methods at the time of sample collection, and ancillary sample site information, such as land use and geological characteristics, was compiled. Samples exceeding recreational water quality criteria were more likely to contain all measured pathogen genes but not Cryptosporidium or Giardia (oo)cysts. FIB and Giardia density and frequency of eaeA gene occurrence were significantly related to season. When discharge at a sampling location was high (>75th percentile of daily mean discharge), there were greater densities of FIB and Giardia, and the stx2, rfb(O157), STII, and esp genes were found more frequently than at other discharge conditions. Giardia occurrence was likely related to nonpoint sources, which are highly influential during seasonal overland transport resulting from snowmelt and elevated precipitation in late winter and spring in Pennsylvania. When MST markers of human, swine, or bovine origin were present, samples more frequently carried the eaeA, stx2, stx1, and rfb
Gross, Eliza L.; Low, Dennis J.
2013-01-01
Analytical results for arsenic in water samples from 5,023 wells obtained during 1969–2007 across Pennsylvania were compiled and related to other associated groundwater-quality and environmental factors and used to predict the probability of elevated arsenic concentrations, defined as greater than or equal to 4.0 micrograms per liter (µg/L), in groundwater. Arsenic concentrations of 4.0 µg/L or greater (elevated concentrations) were detected in 18 percent of samples across Pennsylvania; 8 percent of samples had concentrations that equaled or exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s drinking-water maximum contaminant level of 10.0 µg/L. The highest arsenic concentration was 490.0 µg/L.
A 'new' Cromer-related high frequency antigen probably antithetical to WES.
Daniels, G L; Green, C A; Darr, F W; Anderson, H; Sistonen, P
1987-01-01
An antibody to a high frequency antigen, made in a WES+ Black antenatal patient (Wash.), failed to react with the red cells of a presumed WES+ homozygote and is, therefore, probably antithetical to anti-WES. Like anti-WES, it reacted with papain, ficin, trypsin or neuraminidase treated cells but not with alpha-chymotrypsin or pronase treated cells and was specifically inhibited by concentrated serum. It also reacted more strongly in titration with WES- cells than with WES+ cells. The antibody is Cromer-related as it failed to react with Inab phenotype (IFC-) cells and reacted only weakly with Dr(a-) cells. Wash. cells and those of the other possible WES+ homozygote are Cr(a+) Tc(a+b-c-) Dr(a+) IFC+ but reacted only very weakly with anti-Esa.
Walter, Joan E.; Heuvelmans, Marjolein A.; de Jong, Pim A.; Vliegenthart, Rozemarijn; van Ooijen, Peter M. A.; Peters, Robin B.; ten Haaf, Kevin; Yousaf-Khan, Uraujh; van der Aalst, Carlijn M.; de Bock, Geertruida H.; Mali, Willem; Groen, Harry J. M.; de Koning, Harry J.; Oudkerk, Matthijs
2016-01-01
Background US guidelines now recommend lung cancer screening with low-dose CT for high-risk individuals. Reports of new nodules after baseline screening have been scarce and are inconsistent because of differences in definitions used. We aimed to identify the occurrence of new solid nodules and thei
Walter, Joan E.; Heuvelmans, Marjolein A.; de Jong, Pim A.; Vliegenthart, Rozemarijn; van Ooijen, Peter M. A.; Peters, Robin B.; ten Haaf, Kevin; Yousaf-Khan, Uraujh; van der Aalst, Carlijn M.; de Bock, Geertruida H.; Mali, Willem; Groen, Harry J. M.; de Koning, Harry J.; Oudkerk, Matthijs
2016-01-01
BACKGROUND: US guidelines now recommend lung cancer screening with low-dose CT for high-risk individuals. Reports of new nodules after baseline screening have been scarce and are inconsistent because of differences in definitions used. We aimed to identify the occurrence of new solid nodules and the
Walter, Joan E.; Heuvelmans, Marjolein A.; de Jong, Pim A.; Vliegenthart, Rozemarijn; van Ooijen, Peter M A; Peters, Robin B.; ten Haaf, Kevin; Yousaf-Khan, Uraujh; van der Aalst, Carlijn M.; de Bock, Geertruida H.; Mali, Willem P Th M; Groen, Harry J M; de Koning, Harry J.; Oudkerk, Matthijs
BACKGROUND: US guidelines now recommend lung cancer screening with low-dose CT for high-risk individuals. Reports of new nodules after baseline screening have been scarce and are inconsistent because of differences in definitions used. We aimed to identify the occurrence of new solid nodules and
Turbulence-Induced Relative Velocity of Dust Particles III: The Probability Distribution
Pan, Liubin; Scalo, John
2014-01-01
Motivated by its important role in the collisional growth of dust particles in protoplanetary disks, we investigate the probability distribution function (PDF) of the relative velocity of inertial particles suspended in turbulent flows. Using the simulation from our previous work, we compute the relative velocity PDF as a function of the friction timescales, tau_p1 and tau_p2, of two particles of arbitrary sizes. The friction time of particles included in the simulation ranges from 0.1 tau_eta to 54T_L, with tau_eta and T_L the Kolmogorov time and the Lagrangian correlation time of the flow, respectively. The relative velocity PDF is generically non-Gaussian, exhibiting fat tails. For a fixed value of tau_p1, the PDF is the fattest for equal-size particles (tau_p2~tau_p1), and becomes thinner at both tau_p2tau_p1. Defining f as the friction time ratio of the smaller particle to the larger one, we find that, at a given f in 1/2>T_L). These features are successfully explained by the Pan & Padoan model. Usin...
Bartoszek Krzysztof
2016-03-01
Full Text Available The occurrence of hot weather in the Lublin-Felin and Czesławice in relation to atmospheric circulation (1966−2010. The paper describes the occurrence of hot (tmax 25.1−30.0°C and very hot days (tmax >30°C in Lublin-Felin and Czesławice in the years 1966−2010. The analysis covers the long-term variability of such days, and duration of heat waves. Their circulation conditions were also determined, with indication of circulation types during which the probability of occurrence of hot and very hot days was the highest. In the study area, hot days occurred from April to September, and very hot days from May to August, with the highest frequency in July in both cases. In the period from 1991 to 2010, a considerably higher number of cases of very hot days were recorded than in the 1970s and 1980s. Moreover, they occurred in increasingly long sequences, contributing to more frequent occurrence of unfavourable thermal and humid conditions during the growing season of plants. The highest probability of occurrence of hot and very hot days was determined for circulation types with airflow from the southern sector, and the lowest from the northern sector. Should the upward trend in the frequency of very hot days continue, the risk of the effect of such unfavourable thermal conditions on the health and well-being of tourists and patients of the health resort in Nałęczów will also increase
Occurrence of Autoimmune Diseases Related to the Vaccine against Yellow Fever.
Oliveira, Ana Cristina Vanderley; Maria Henrique da Mota, Licia; Dos Santos-Neto, Leopoldo Luiz; De Carvalho, Jozélio Freire; Caldas, Iramaya Rodrigues; Martins Filho, Olindo Assis; Tauil, Pedro Luis
2014-01-01
Yellow fever is an infectious disease, endemic in South America and Africa. This is a potentially serious illness, with lethality between 5 and 40% of cases. The most effective preventive vaccine is constituted by the attenuated virus strain 17D, developed in 1937. It is considered safe and effective, conferring protection in more than 90% in 10 years. Adverse effects are known as mild reactions (allergies, transaminases transient elevation, fever, headache) and severe (visceral and neurotropic disease related to vaccine). However, little is known about its potential to induce autoimmune responses. This systematic review aims to identify the occurrence of autoinflammatory diseases related to 17D vaccine administration. Six studies were identified describing 13 possible cases. The diseases were Guillain-Barré syndrome, multiple sclerosis, multiple points evanescent syndrome, acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, autoimmune hepatitis, and Kawasaki disease. The data suggest that 17D vaccination may play a role in the mechanism of loss of self-tolerance.
Doctor, Daniel H.; Doctor, Katarina Z.
2012-01-01
In this study the influence of geologic features related to sinkhole susceptibility was analyzed and the results were mapped for the region of Jefferson County, West Virginia. A model of sinkhole density was constructed using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) that estimated the relations among discrete geologic or hydrologic features and sinkhole density at each sinkhole location. Nine conditioning factors on sinkhole occurrence were considered as independent variables: distance to faults, fold axes, fracture traces oriented along bedrock strike, fracture traces oriented across bedrock strike, ponds, streams, springs, quarries, and interpolated depth to groundwater. GWR model parameter estimates for each variable were evaluated for significance, and the results were mapped. The results provide visual insight into the influence of these variables on localized sinkhole density, and can be used to provide an objective means of weighting conditioning factors in models of sinkhole susceptibility or hazard risk.
Occurrence of Autoimmune Diseases Related to the Vaccine against Yellow Fever
Ana Cristina Vanderley Oliveira
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Yellow fever is an infectious disease, endemic in South America and Africa. This is a potentially serious illness, with lethality between 5 and 40% of cases. The most effective preventive vaccine is constituted by the attenuated virus strain 17D, developed in 1937. It is considered safe and effective, conferring protection in more than 90% in 10 years. Adverse effects are known as mild reactions (allergies, transaminases transient elevation, fever, headache and severe (visceral and neurotropic disease related to vaccine. However, little is known about its potential to induce autoimmune responses. This systematic review aims to identify the occurrence of autoinflammatory diseases related to 17D vaccine administration. Six studies were identified describing 13 possible cases. The diseases were Guillain-Barré syndrome, multiple sclerosis, multiple points evanescent syndrome, acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, autoimmune hepatitis, and Kawasaki disease. The data suggest that 17D vaccination may play a role in the mechanism of loss of self-tolerance.
US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — We propose to conduct an initial assessment of bat occurrence within bottomland forests on National Wildlife Refuges relative to silvicultural treatments prescribed...
The Occurrence of Flavonoids and Related Compounds in Flower Sections of Papaver nudicaule
Bettina Dudek
2016-06-01
Full Text Available Flavonoids play an important role in the pigmentation of flowers; in addition, they protect petals and other flower parts from UV irradiation and oxidative stress. Nudicaulins, flavonoid-derived indole alkaloids, along with pelargonidin, kaempferol, and gossypetin glycosides, are responsible for the color of white, red, orange, and yellow petals of different Papaver nudicaule cultivars. The color of the petals is essential to attract pollinators. We investigated the occurrence of flavonoids in basal and apical petal areas, stamens, and capsules of four differently colored P. nudicaule cultivars by means of chromatographic and spectroscopic methods. The results reveal the specific occurrence of gossypetin glycosides in the basal spot of all cultivars and demonstrate that kaempferol glycosides are the major secondary metabolites in the capsules. Unlike previous reports, the yellow-colored stamens of all four P. nudicaule cultivars are shown to contain not nudicaulins but carotenoids. In addition, the presence of nudicaulins, pelargonidin, and kaempferol glycosides in the apical petal area was confirmed. The flavonoids and related compounds in the investigated flower parts and cultivars of P. nudicaule are profiled, and their potential ecological role is discussed.
Are the nesting probabilities of the red-backed shrike related to proximity to roads?
Federico Morelli
2013-11-01
Full Text Available Roads are a pervasive feature in the landscape, and their ecological effects on vertebrate wildlife have been well documented. The main types of effect described are mainly negative consequences on birds and other vertebrates. The major impact of roads on birds includes habitat fragmentation, traffic noise and direct mortality from road kills. However, some passerines, such as the Red-backed Shrike, seem to often use areas close to roads for nesting and hunting purposes.The aim of this paper is to study the importance of road proximity for the selection of suitable shrubs for nesting by the Red-backed Shrike in the farmland landscapes of central Italy. To achieve this goal, the hierarchical partitioning procedures of Generalized Linear Models (GLM are applied in order to quantify the relative effects of a number of independent variables.At least 77% of the nests we identified were positioned less than 25 meters from roads. The mean distance from the nest to the nearest road was 12.9 ± 18.1 m. The analysis of the relative importance of each variable revealed that “road distance” is one of variables most associated with nesting probability in suitable shrubs. It is reasonable to argue that suitable shrubs and the presence of open spaces for hunting, both of which exist close to countryside roads, might represent the favourable components of the breeding habitat selections of Red-backed Shrikes. Our results can provide useful indications for census techniques and for the planning of conservation measures for the species in agricultural landscapes.
Targeting the age-related occurrence, removal, and accumulation of molecular damage by hormesis.
Rattan, Suresh I S
2010-06-01
Strategies for testing and developing effective means of intervention, prevention, and modulation of aging incorporate means to minimize the occurrence and accumulation of molecular damage, to reduce molecular heterogeneity, and to evaluate the relevance of the type and extent of damage with respect to its role in aging and age-related diseases. One such approach is that of mild stress-induced hormesis, which stimulates maintenance and repair systems and strengthens the homeodynamic space of cells and organisms. Hormesis through mild heat shock, natural and synthetic hormetins, and other stressors brings about several antiaging effects in human fibroblasts, keratinocytes, and telomerase-immortalized bone marrow stem cells. Depending on the cell type, these antiaging hormetic effects include extension of replicative life span, enhanced proteasomal activities, increased chaperone levels, and improved wound healing, angiogenesis, and differentiation. The main molecular pathways for achieving such hormetic effects are through targeting the processes for the repair and removal of molecular damage, which can slow aging.
Krajewska, Katarzyna; Gawlik-Kotelnicka, Oliwia; Gmitrowicz, Agnieszka
2015-06-01
Suicide is the third cause of death globally in the age group 10-19. Multiple risk factors (genetic, psychiatric, psychological, familial, social) increased number of suicide attempts. The aim of this study was to explore whether mental disorders are associated with the number of suicide attempts among psychiatric hospitalized adolescents. Retrospective, chart-based analysis of 119 patients, aged 13-18, treated in 2013-2014 in the Department of Adolescent Psychiatry in Łódź. Inclusion criteria was diagnosis of schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorders, mood disorders, neurotic, stress-related and somatoform disorders, behavioral and emotional disorders according to ICD 10. Exclusion criteria were other psychiatric diagnosis, incomplete information about intention of self-harm behaviors. For statistical analysis used Statistica 9.1. Among psychiatricaly hospitalized patients, 51.2% of people attempted suicide. No relationship was found (p > 0.05) between psychiatric diagnosis and frequency of suicide attempts in adolescents, but the most common suicide attempts related to people with a diagnosis of mood disorders (59.3%) and neurotic disorders (54.6%), and least frequently in patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia , schizotypal and delusional disorders (40%) and behavioral and emotional disorders (44.4%). There is no relation between the occurrence of suicide attempts and the type of mental disorders among psychiatrically hospitalized adolescents. © 2015 MEDPRESS.
Scaling Qualitative Probability
Burgin, Mark
2017-01-01
There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...
Wubben, I.; van Manen, Jeanette Gabrielle; van den Akker, B.J.; Vaartjes, S.R.; van Harten, Willem H.
2010-01-01
Background: Equipment-related incidents in the operating room (OR) can affect quality of care. In this study, the authors determined the occurrence and effects on the care process in a large teaching hospital. - Methods: During a 4-week period, OR nurses reported equipment-related incidents during
吴波; 周文松
2001-01-01
通过对东北某大城市实际火灾情况的调查分析，针对不同类型的建筑物，分别给出了单位建筑面积月起火率的概率分布模型，并在此基础上探讨了单位建筑面积年起火率和50年起火率的概率分布问题。最后，对建筑物火灾的几个特点进行了初步分析。%Based on the investigation of fire disasters in a certain city in the Northeast China, the probability distribution models of fire occurrence for a period of one month were given for different types of building. Then, the probability distribution models of fire occurrence for a period of one year and 50 years were discussed. Finally, several characteristics of building fire were analyzed.
Relative level of occurrence of the principal heuristics in Nigeria property valuation
Iroham C.O.,
2013-06-01
Full Text Available The neglect of the other principal heuristics namely avaialability, representative and positivity in real estate behaviourial property research as against the exclusive focus on anchoring and adjustment heuristics invariably results to a lopsided research. This work studied the four principal heuristics in property behaviourial property valutaion in a bid to discovering its relative level of occurrence. The study adopted a cross-sectional questionnaire survey approach of 159 of the 270 Head Offices of Estate Surveying and Valuation firms in Lagos Metropolis, while 29 and 30 questionnaire were distributed to the Head Offices of the entire Estate Surveying and Valuation Firms in Abuja and Port-Harcourt respectively. The data gotten was analyzed with the aid of Statistical Package for the Social Sciences first using frequency distributions/means and the data so analyzed was further analyzed using maximum and minimum values, means/standard deviations and ultimately ranking of such means. The result revealed that respondents use the various principal heuristics in this decreasing order of magnitude: availability heuristics (26.77%, anchoring and adjustment heuristics (18.62%; representative heuristics (15.63% and least of all positivity heuristics (10.41%. The authors thereby opined that emphasis be placed more on availability heuristics research particularly as usage of heuristcis (anchoring and adjustment has been seen to influence valuation inconsistency/accuracy
Age-specific occurrence of HPV16- and HPV18-related cervical cancer.
de Sanjose, Silvia; Wheeler, Cosette M; Quint, Wim G V; Hunt, William C; Joste, Nancy E; Alemany, Laia; Bosch, F Xavier; Myers, Evan R; Castle, Philip E
2013-07-01
The age-specific occurrence of cervical cancer related to human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes HPV16 and HPV18, the two targeted by current HPV vaccines, is not well described. We therefore used data from two large, tissue-based HPV genotyping studies of cervical cancer, one conducted in New Mexico (n = 744) and an International study restricted to cancers (n = 1,729) from Europe, North America, and Australia to represent those regions with widely available cervical cancer screening facilities. HPV results were categorized as HPV16- or HPV18-positive (HPV16/18) versus other HPV genotype. We observed a decreasing proportion of HPV16/18-positive cancers with increasing age in the International study (Ptrend Mexico study (Ptrend 2020. HPV vaccination against HPV16/18 may have a greater impact on cervical cancers in women under 65 than in women aged 65 and older. These data will inform the age-specific impact of HPV vaccination and its integration with cervical cancer screening activities.
Hinrichsen, H.H.; Schmidt, J.O.; Petereit, C.;
2005-01-01
Temporal mismatch between the occurrence of larvae and their prey potentially affects the spatial overlap and thus the contact rates between predator and prey. This might have important consequences for growth and survival. We performed a case study investigating the influence of circulation patt....... Finally, we related variations in overlap patterns to the variability of Baltic cod recruitment success. (c) 2005 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved...
Mavromichalaki, H.; Preka-Papadema, P.; Theodoropoulou, A.; Paouris, E.; Apostolou, Th.
2017-01-01
The biological human system is probably affected by the solar and geomagnetic disturbances as well as the cosmic ray variations. In this work, the relation between the solar activity and cosmic ray variations and the cardiac arrhythmias over the time period 1997-2009 covering the solar cycle 23, is studied. The used medical data set refers to 4741 patients with cardiac arrhythmias and 2548 of whom were diagnosed with atrial fibrillation, obtained from the 2nd Cardiological Clinic of the General Hospital of Nicaea, Piraeus, in Greece. The smoothing method on a 365-day basis and the Pearson r-coefficient were used in order to compare these records with the number of sunspots, flares, solar proton events, coronal mass ejections and cosmic ray intensity. Applying a moving correlation function to ±1500 days, it is suggested that a change of the correlation sign between the medical data and each one of the above parameters occurs during a time interval of about 2-3 years. This interval corresponds to the time span of the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field of this solar cycle, which always takes place around the solar cycle maximum. After then a correlation analysis was carried out corresponding to the rise (1997-2001) and the decay (2002-2009) phases of the solar cycle 23. It is noticeable that the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field coincides with the period where the sign of the correlation between the incidence of arrhythmias and the occurrence number of the solar eruptive events and the cosmic ray intensity, changes sign. The results are comparable with those obtained from the previous solar cycle 22 based on medical data from another country.
Heat production and error probability relation in Landauer reset at effective temperature
Neri, Igor; López-Suárez, Miquel
2016-09-01
The erasure of a classical bit of information is a dissipative process. The minimum heat produced during this operation has been theorized by Rolf Landauer in 1961 to be equal to kBT ln2 and takes the name of Landauer limit, Landauer reset or Landauer principle. Despite its fundamental importance, the Landauer limit remained untested experimentally for more than fifty years until recently when it has been tested using colloidal particles and magnetic dots. Experimental measurements on different devices, like micro-mechanical systems or nano-electronic devices are still missing. Here we show the results obtained in performing the Landauer reset operation in a micro-mechanical system, operated at an effective temperature. The measured heat exchange is in accordance with the theory reaching values close to the expected limit. The data obtained for the heat production is then correlated to the probability of error in accomplishing the reset operation.
Dickerson, L.S.
2001-11-30
The Safety Metrics Indicator Program (SMIP) retrieved 44 packaging- or transportation-related occurrences from the Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS) during the period from July 1 through September 30, 2001. Only those incidents that occur in preparation for transport, during transport, and during unloading of hazardous material are considered as packaging- or transportation-related occurrences. Other incidents with packaging and transportation (P and T) significance but not involving hazardous material (such as vehicle accidents or empty packagings) are not rated to the SMIP criteria, but are archived in the SMIP Subsidiary Database of occurrences, a sub-database of the main SMIP P and T Occurrence Database. Thirty-two of the originally-selected 44 occurrences were appropriate for classification to the SMIP criteria, only 7 of which have offsite applicability. Eight of the original 44 reports are archived in a subsidiary database because they either do not involve the transport of hazardous material or do not involve transport by vehicle, plane, boat, or rail. The others either were deleted because more thorough review revealed that they were not strictly related to P and T or were canceled by the reporting site and removed from the ORPS. These occurrences have not been normalized as in the Annual Report of Occurrences because the necessary information is not yet available. The number and severity of the selected occurrence reports (ORs) are consistent with historical reporting. Contamination events continue to be among the most common type of occurrences; however, ''Shipping Preparation'' events decreased this quarter to only 4 events from the 21 reported last quarter. None of the 32 ORs that were rated had event consequence measures (W{sub EC}) greater than 2; 14 of them were categorized as having a W{sub EC} of 1. This means that all of the fourth-quarter FY 2001 ORs had only slight consequences at worst (i.e., resulting in
Emborg, Hanne-Dorthe; Andersen, J. S.; Seyfarth, Anne Mette;
2003-01-01
and streptogramin. By February 1998, all antimicrobial growth promoters (AGPs) were withdrawn from the Danish broiler production. The present study investigates, by logistic regression analyses, the (1) changes in the occurrence of AGP resistance among E. faecium from broilers and broiler meat from the fourth...... quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 2001 and (2) relations between the occurrence of AGP resistance among E. faecium isolates from Danish broilers and AGP resistance among E. faecium isolates from the broiler meat of Danish and unknown origin collected in the same quarter within the year....... In the present study, we showed that after the AGP withdrawal, a significant decline in resistance to avilamycin, erythromycin, vancomycin and virginiamycin was observed among E. faecium from broilers and broiler meat. In addition, a decline in the occurrence of AGP resistance among E. faecium from Danish...
Occurrence of “beta bursts” in human frontal cortex related to psychological parameters
Kamp, A.; Schrijer, C.F.M.; Storm van Leeuwen, W.
1972-01-01
1. 1. In a psychiatric patient with electrodes implanted in various brain structures the occurrence of paroxysmal 16–26 c/sec activity — “beta bursts” — in the inferior frontal cortex is described. 2. 2. The beta bursts occurred during “free” behavioural situations but could be provoked also by var
Maria da Glória Bastos de Freitas Mesquita
2007-12-01
Full Text Available A Condutividade Hidráulica Saturada (Ksat devido à sua importância em informar sobre a capacidade de transporte de água, solutos e substâncias químicas no solo deve ser bem caracterizada, pois de um modo geral, seu valor é utilizado nos cálculos de fluxos no solo. Com o objetivo de propor uma alternativa para caracterizá-la, a partir de uma série de dados, utilizou-se a função densidade de probabilidade lognormal para obter os valores da propriedade correspondentes aos níveis de 5 a 95% de probabilidade de ocorrência, visando descrever e indicar melhores valores a serem adotados como Ksat para a área considerada. Como resultado obteve-se uma análise da variável em termos de probabilidade de ocorrência. Essa representação, na medida em que associa o nível de probabilidade ao valor adotado para a propriedade, permite ao pesquisador avaliar o risco na estimativa de medidas dependentes de Ksat, visto que esta propriedade no solo apresenta alta variabilidade.The Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity of the soil (Ksat due to its importance in inform about the capacity of transport of water, solutes and chemical substances in the soil should be well characterized, since in general, this value is used in calculations of flows in the soil. Aiming at proposing an alternative to characterize the Ksat, starting from a series of data, the function density of probability lognormal was used to obtain the values of the property which corresponde to the levels of occurrence probability from 5 to 95%, in order to describe and to indicate better values to be adopted as Ksat for the considered area. As a result, it was obtained an analysis of the values of the variable in terms of occurrence probability. This representation, associating each value to a probability level, allows to the researcher to evaluate the error on estimation of measurements that depend on Ksat, due to the fact that, this property in the soil presents high variability.
Probability as a theory dependent concept
Atkinson, D; Peijnenburg, J
1999-01-01
It is argued that probability should be defined implicitly by the distributions of possible measurement values characteristic of a theory. These distributions are tested by, but not defined in terms of, relative frequencies of occurrences of events of a specified kind. The adoption of an a priori
CHANGES IN SUMMER TYPES IN RELATION TO DROUGHT OCCURRENCE IN THE ROMANIAN PLAIN REGION
MICU DANA
2014-03-01
Full Text Available This work aims at analysing the exposure of an important agricultural region of Romania (the Romanian Plain region to hot summers and droughts over the 1961-2009 period, in response to the combined action of air temperature and precipitation. This study is focused on the changes of summer types, herein defined as four modes (warm/dry, warm/wet, cold/dry, cold/wet, based on the exceedence probabilities of the joint extreme quantiles (the 25th and the 75th of mean daily temperature and precipitation, for a number of six weather stations located in the Romanian Plain region. The trends in the evolution of the four summer modes have been investigated in relation to the changes in the frequency, magnitude and duration of precipitation deficit and drought, as revealed by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI and the maximum number of consecutive dry days. The changing behaviour of summer modes is strongly associated to the region wide signal of significant summer warming (both daytime and night-time and less to the slight drying trend. The results show that most areas of the Romanian Plain region are subject to a greater exposure to heat stress in summer and also, to a slight intensification of dryness, more spatially extended since the mid 1980s to early 1990s. These findings are supported mainly by a significant increase of the frequency of the warm/dry summers and a slight lengthening of summer dry spells and less, by the long-term trends of summer SPI (at both 3- and 6-month time-scales, which suggest only a slight increase of the frequency of the moderately dry SPI values, yet not statistically significant.
Dickerson, L.S.
2001-07-26
The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been charged by the DOE National Transportation Program (NTP) with the responsibility of retrieving reports and information pertaining to packaging and transportation (P&T) incidents from the centralized Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS) database. These selected reports have been analyzed for trends, impact on P&T operations and safety concerns, and lessons learned (LL) in P&T operations. This task is designed not only to keep the NTP aware of what is occurring at DOE sites on a periodic basis, but also to highlight potential P&T problems that may need management attention and allow dissemination of LL to DOE Operations Offices, with the subsequent flow of information to contractors. The Safety Metrics Indicator Program (SMIP) was established by the NTP in fiscal year (FY) 1998 as an initiative to develop a methodology for reporting occurrences with the appropriate metrics to show rates and trends. One of its chief goals has been to augment historical reporting of occurrence-based information and present more meaningful statistics for comparison of occurrences. To this end, the SMIP established a severity weighting system for the classification of the occurrences, which would allow normalization of the data and provide a basis for trending analyses. The process for application of this methodology is documented in the September 1999 report DOE Packaging and Transportation Measurement Methodology for the Safety Metrics Indicator Program (SMIP). This annual report contains information on those P&T-related occurrences reported to the ORPS during the period from October 1, 1999, through September 30, 2000. Only those incidents that occur in preparation for transport, during transport, and during unloading of hazardous material are considered as packaging- or transportation-related occurrences. Other incidents with P&T significance, but not involving hazardous material (such as vehicle accidents or empty
Occurrence and distribution of Chytridiales related to some physical and chemical factors
Samy K. Hassan
2014-08-01
Full Text Available Physical and chemical properties of water and soil were positively corelated with the occurrence and distribution of chytrides. Thirty-six zoosporic members of chytrids belonging to fourteen genera were recorded in the present study. Nowakowskiella, Karlingia, Cladochytrium, Endochytrium and Rhizophlyctis were the most common genera observed along River Nileshore and other canals in nine Governorates in Egypt during the winter of 1989/1990.
Lower Boundary Forcing related to the Occurrence of Rain in the Tropical Western Pacific
Li, Y.; Carbone, R. E.
2013-12-01
Global weather and climate models have a long and somewhat tortured history with respect to simulation and prediction of tropical rainfall in the relative absence of balanced flow in the geostrophic sense. An important correlate with tropical rainfall is sea surface temperature (SST). The introduction of SST information to convective rainfall parameterization in global models has improved model climatologies of tropical oceanic rainfall. Nevertheless, large systematic errors have persisted, several of which are common to most atmospheric models. Models have evolved to the point where increased spatial resolution demands representation of the SST field at compatible temporal and spatial scales, leading to common usage of monthly SST fields at scales of 10-100 km. While large systematic errors persist, significant skill has been realized from various atmospheric and coupled ocean models, including assimilation of weekly or even daily SST fields, as tested by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting. A few investigators have explored the role of SST gradients in relation to the occurrence of precipitation. Some of this research has focused on large scale gradients, mainly associated with surface ocean-atmosphere climatology. These studies conclude that lower boundary atmospheric convergence, under some conditions, could be substantially enhanced over SST gradients, destabilizing the atmosphere, and thereby enabling moist convection. While the concept has a firm theoretical foundation, it has not gained a sizeable following far beyond the realm of western boundary currents. Li and Carbone 2012 examined the role of transient mesoscale (~ 100 km) SST gradients in the western Pacific warm pool by means of GHRSST and CMORPH rainfall data. They found that excitation of deep moist convection was strongly associated with the Laplacian of SST (LSST). Specifically, -LSST is associated with rainfall onset in 75% of 10,000 events over 4 years, whereas the
Stephanie Melles
2012-12-01
Full Text Available Theoretical and empirical studies suggest that well-connected networks of forest habitat facilitate animal movement and contribute to species' persistence and thereby the maintenance of biodiversity. Many structural and functional connectivity metrics have been proposed, e.g., distance to nearest neighboring patch or graph-based measures, but the relative importance of these measures in contrast to nesting habitat at fine spatial scales is not well established. With graph-based measures of connectivity, Euclidean distances between forest patches can be directly related to the preferred gap crossing distances of a bird (functional connectivity. We determined the relative predictive power of nesting habitat, forest cover, and structural or functional connectivity measures in describing the breeding distribution of Hooded Warblers (Setophaga citrina over two successive breeding seasons in a region highly fragmented by agriculture in southern Ontario. Logistic regression models of nesting occurrence patterns were compared using Akaike's information criterion and relative effect sizes were compared using odds ratios. Our results provide support for the expectation that nest-site characteristics are indeed related to the breeding distribution of S. citrina. However, models based on nesting habitat alone were 4.7 times less likely than a model including functional connectivity as a predictor for the breeding distribution of S. citrina. Models of nest occurrence in relation to surrounding forest cover had lower model likelihoods than models that included graph-based functional connectivity, but these measures were highly confounded. Graph-based measures of connectivity explained more variation in nest occurrence than structural measures of forest connectivity, in both 2004 and 2005. These results suggest that S. citrina selected nesting areas that were functionally connected at their preferred gap crossing distances, but nesting habitat was a critically
Combinatorics and Probability: Six- to Ten-Year-Olds Reliably Predict Whether a Relation Will Occur
Gonzalez, Michel; Girotto, Vittorio
2011-01-01
Young children are able to judge which of two possibilities is more likely to occur when these possibilities are characterized by a simple property, like color ("Is it more likely to draw a red chip or a blue chip?"). Here we ask whether they can do so when the possibilities concern a relation between simple properties ("Is it more likely to draw…
Martins, Ronald Jefferson; Garcia, Alício Rosalino; Garbin, Cléa Adas Saliba; Sundefeld, Maria Lúcia Marçal Mazza
2008-12-01
Different factors like stress and occlusion can decrease the adaptive capacity of the stomatognathic system and lead to the occurrence of temporomandibular dysfunction (TMD). The objective of this study was to verify the relation of the variables socio-economic level, schooling, sex and age with the occurrence of temporomandibular dysfunction. The population of this study consisted of a statistically significant sample of subjects of both sexes belonging to different socio-economic classes living in the urban area of the city of Piacatu, São Paulo, Brazil. The Criterion of Economic Classification Brazil (CCEB) was used for the economic stratification of the population. Fonseca's Questionnaire was applied to samples collected from each extract to verify the level of TMD. The data collected were statistically analyzed using the Chi-square Test, with a significance level of 5%. In total, 354 heads of families participated in the research. No statistically significant relation was found between socio-economic class, schooling, age group and temporomandibular dysfunction (TMD). There was a relation between sex and TMD (p<0.02). The variables socio-economic class, schooling and age group had no influence upon the occurrence of TMD, however there is a significant relation with the sex of the individual.
J. Ström
2003-06-01
Full Text Available The occurrence frequency of cirrus clouds as function of ambient relative humidity over ice, based on in-situ observations performed during the INCA experiment, show a clear difference between the campaign carried out at Southern Hemisphere (SH midlatitudes and the campaign carried out at Northern Hemisphere (NH midlatitudes. At a given relative humidity above ice saturation, clouds are more frequent in the NH. At relative humidities near ice saturation, clouds defined as containing particles with sizes larger than 0.55 μm diameter and an integral number density above 0.2 cm^{−3} were present 70% of the time during the SH campaign, whereas clouds where present 95% of the time during the NH campaign. Using a size threshold of 1 μm diameter to define the presence of clouds result in a less frequent occurrence of 60% of the time in the SH campaign and 75% of the time in the NH campaign. The data show that the presence of particles is a common characteristic of cirrus clouds. Clouds at ice saturation defined as having crystal sizes of at least 5 μm diameter and a number density exceeding 0.001 cm^{−3} were present in about 80% of the time during the SH campaign, and almost 90% of the time during the NH campaign. The observations reveal a significant cloud presence fraction at humidities well below ice saturation. Local minima in the cloud presence fraction as a function of relative humidity are interpreted as systematic underestimation of cloud presence because cloud particles may become invisible to cloud probes. Based on this interpretation the data suggests that clouds in the SH form preferentially at relative humidities between 140 and 155%, whereas clouds in the NH formed at relative humidities less than 130%. A simple assumption about the probability to reach successively higher humidities in an ice supersaturated air parcel provides a model that explains the main trend of the cloud presence fraction as function of
Calderon-Preciado, Diana [IDAEA-CSIC, Jordi Girona, 18, E-08034 Barcelona (Spain); Matamoros, Victor, E-mail: victor.matamoros@udg.edu [Department of Chemistry, University of Girona, Campus Montilivi, 17071 Girona (Spain); Bayona, Josep M. [IDAEA-CSIC, Jordi Girona, 18, E-08034 Barcelona (Spain)
2011-12-15
Emerging contaminants have received much attention in recent years due to their presence in surface waters, but little attention has been paid to their occurrence in agricultural irrigation waters. This study investigated the occurrence of these compounds in an agricultural irrigation network in northeastern Spain and, for the first time, using two plant uptake models, estimated the concentration of selected micropollutants in crops. The concentration of micropollutants in agricultural irrigation waters ranged from 10 to 5130 ng L{sup -1} and exhibited some attenuation over the course of the irrigation network. Bromoform, chloroform, diclofenac, caffeine, ibuprofen, naproxen, methyl dihydrojasmonate, galaxolide, butylated hydroxytoluene, and butylated hydroxyanisole were the most abundant contaminants (> 200 ng L{sup -1}, on average). The estimated concentration of micropollutants in crops ranged from < 1 to 7677 ng kg{sup -1}, with the neutral compounds being the most abundant. Moreover, the predicted data obtained by fate models generally agreed with experimental data. Finally, human exposure to micropollutants through fruit and vegetable consumption was estimated to be 9.8 {mu}g per person and week ({Sigma} 27 contaminants detected). Further studies are needed to determine the health implications that the presence of these compounds in fruit and vegetables may have for consumers.
Calderón-Preciado, Diana; Matamoros, Víctor; Bayona, Josep M
2011-12-15
Emerging contaminants have received much attention in recent years due to their presence in surface waters, but little attention has been paid to their occurrence in agricultural irrigation waters. This study investigated the occurrence of these compounds in an agricultural irrigation network in northeastern Spain and, for the first time, using two plant uptake models, estimated the concentration of selected micropollutants in crops. The concentration of micropollutants in agricultural irrigation waters ranged from 10 to 5130 ng L(-1) and exhibited some attenuation over the course of the irrigation network. Bromoform, chloroform, diclofenac, caffeine, ibuprofen, naproxen, methyl dihydrojasmonate, galaxolide, butylated hydroxytoluene, and butylated hydroxyanisole were the most abundant contaminants (>200 ng L(-1), on average). The estimated concentration of micropollutants in crops ranged from <1 to 7677 ng kg(-1), with the neutral compounds being the most abundant. Moreover, the predicted data obtained by fate models generally agreed with experimental data. Finally, human exposure to micropollutants through fruit and vegetable consumption was estimated to be 9.8 μg per person and week (Σ 27 contaminants detected). Further studies are needed to determine the health implications that the presence of these compounds in fruit and vegetables may have for consumers. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Baldawa, Prachi Shrigopal; Kulkarni, Venkatesh V; Koshy, Ajit V; Shaikh, Sabeer S; Varu, Rucha; Srivastava, Garima
2016-01-01
To evaluate the levels of salivary thiocyanate and its relation with the occurrence of micronuclei (MN) using exfoliative cytology in smokers and nonsmokers. One hundred and twenty patients were divided into 3 groups: nonsmoker group 1 (control), smokers group 2, and smokers group 3. Their saliva was collected and analyzed for thiocyanate levels, and exfoliative cytology was evaluated for the presence of MN. Fisher's exact test and ANOVA test were used. It was seen that as the grade of smoking increased, the levels of salivary thiocyanate and occurrence of MN increased. Detection and quantification of "biomarkers" such as salivary thiocyanate and MN in noninvasive and painless procedures such as oral exfoliative cytology can be an upcoming research domain in the field of cancer prevention and therapeutics.
Occurrence of keratinolytic fungi and related dermatophytes in soils in Cairo, Egypt.
Youssef, Y A; el-Din, A A; Hassanein, S M
1992-01-01
120 soil samples collected from various sites of Cairo were processed for the isolation of keratinophilic fungi by "ToKaVa" hair baiting technique. 22 species belonging to 6 genera were isolated viz.: Chrysosporium tropicum, C. indicum, C. keratinophilum, C. queenslandicum, C. merdarium, C. anamorph of Arthroderma curreyi, C. pannicola, C. lobatum, C. anamorph of Renispora flavissima, C. pseudomerdarium, Microascus mangini, Malbranchea gypsea, Ml. State of Uncicarpus reesii, Ml. State of Coccidioides immitis, Microsporum gypseum, Mr. distortum Mr. audouinii, Mr. fulvum, Trichophyton mentagrophytes, T. terrestre, T. verrucosum and Epidermophyton floccosum. The frequency of occurrence of the isolated fungi was determined. Microsporum gypseum, Chrysosporium tropicum and Chrysosporium indicum were the most frequent species recovered from soil. Most species of keratinophilic fungi were isolated from university, public garden and zoo garden. The distribution of the isolates are discussed.
Probing occurrence of phenylpropanoids in Morinda citrifolia in relation to foliar diseases.
Mandal, Sudhamoy; Rath, Chiranjibi; Gupta, Chandan Kumar; Nath, Vishal; Singh, Hari Shankar
2015-01-01
Accumulation of phenolic compounds in cell walls of different plant organs leading to increased lignification is an early defence response of plants against biotic stress. The aim of this work was to delineate occurrence of cell wall-bound (CWB) phenolic compounds in Morinda citrifolia leaves. Alkaline hydrolysis of the cell wall material of leaf tissues yielded 4-coumaric acid (4-CA) as the major bulk of the phenolic compounds in all Morinda germplasms. Next in line was 4-hydroxybenzoic acid. Other phenolics identified were vanillic acid, 4-hydroxybenzaldehyde, vanillin and ferulic acid. Concentrations of all the CWB phenolics were highest in the germplasm CHN-5, followed by the germplasm CHN-1. Incidentally, these two Morinda germplasms recorded lowest incidence of foliar diseases. Significantly higher amounts of 4-CA in combination with other phenolics may be the reasons for lowest incidence of foliar diseases in CHN-5 and CHN-1 germplasms of M. citrifolia.
Pierre Nahon; Angela Sutton; Pierre Rufat; Chantal Simon; Jean-Claude Trinchet; Liliane Gattegno; Michel Beaugrand; Nathalie Charnaux
2008-01-01
AIM:To explore the influence of polymorphisms in genes encoding for the chemokines Stromal cell-Derived Factor-1 (SDF-1)/CXCL12 and Monocyte Chemotactic Protein-1 (MCP-1)/CCL2,or for the chemokine receptor CCR5 on the risks of liver-related death and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients.METHODS:SDF-1 3'A,MCP-1 (-2518) and CCR5-⊿32 polyrnorphisms,SDF-1α,Regulated upon Activation Normal T cells Expressed and Secreted (RANTES)/CCL5 and MCP-1 serum levels were determined in 120 HCV-infected patients,included at time of cirrhosis diagnosis and prospectively followed-up.RESULTS:During follow-up,23/120 (19.1%) patients died and 47/120 (39.1%) developed HCC.Carriers and noncarriers of each genetic marker had similar baseline characteristics estimating the severity of liver disease.The occurrence of death or HCC during follow-up was similar among carriers and noncarriers of each polymorphism.There was no association between the carriage of mutated alleles and chernokine serum levels and the latter were not associated with the risks of death or HCC.CONCLUSION:This study suggests the lack of association of SDF-1 3'A,MCP-1 (-2518),CCRS-⊿32 polymorphisms with death and HCC occurrence in cirrhotic HCV-infected patients.
Frequency of Occurrence of Pregnancy in Relation to Uterine Horn in Cattle in the Colombian Tropics
Marco González Tous
2014-07-01
Full Text Available This paper aims to determine the frequency of occurrence of pregnancy in the right and left uterine horns of cattle in the Colombian tropics. Rectal palpation was performed in 1,534 cows to diagnose pregnancy and to indicate the pregnant horn (left or right. Additionally, 618 non-pregnant cows were examined to determine the presence of corpora lutea (CL or follicle (F, and to identify the ovary (right or left containing them. In pregnant cows, the percentages of right and left gestation were 63.1% (968/1534 and 36.9% (566/1534 (p ≤ 0.01, respectively, and in non-pregnant cows, 69 % of CL and 68% of F were found in the right ovary (p ≤ 0.01. Similarly, reproductive tracts of 300 pregnant cows were inspected, as well as those of 300 non-pregnant cows but with CL and F present. In pregnant tracts, the percentages of right and left gestation were 67.3% and 32.7% (p ≤ 0.01, respectively, and in non-pregnant cattle, 68% of CL and 65% of F were found in the right ovary (p ≤ 0.01. In conclusion, the highest percentage of pregnancies in cattle in the Colombian tropics is presented in the right horn; an increased presence of CL and F was also found in the right ovary.
Vickrey, Barbara G; Lee, Liesly; Moore, Fraser; Moriarty, Patrick
2015-01-01
Objective. To compare patterns of associations of changes in mental and physical health dimensions of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) over time with relapse occurrence and changes in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS). Methods. This 24-month, phase IV, observational study enrolled 334 patients with RMS who received interferon β-1a 44 μg or 22 μg subcutaneously three times weekly. At each 6-month visit, patients completed the Multiple Sclerosis Quality of Life-54 (MSQOL-54) and site investigators assessed EDSS and recorded relapse occurrence. A generalized linear model procedure was used for multivariable analyses (per protocol) that explored unique associations of EDSS score change and relapse occurrence with MSQOL-54 physical health composite score (PCS) and mental health composite score (MCS). Results. HRQoL improved over 2 years among those who completed the study. Occurrence of ≥1 relapse was significantly associated with lower MSQOL-54 PCS and MCS. Changes in EDSS score were significantly associated with MSQOL-54 PCS, but not MCS. Conclusions. HRQoL assessments, particularly those that examine mental health, may provide information on the general health status of patients with RMS that would not be recognized using traditional clinician-assessed measures of disease severity and activity. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov; identifier: NCT01141751.
Barbara G. Vickrey
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Objective. To compare patterns of associations of changes in mental and physical health dimensions of health-related quality of life (HRQoL over time with relapse occurrence and changes in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS scores in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS. Methods. This 24-month, phase IV, observational study enrolled 334 patients with RMS who received interferon β-1a 44 μg or 22 μg subcutaneously three times weekly. At each 6-month visit, patients completed the Multiple Sclerosis Quality of Life-54 (MSQOL-54 and site investigators assessed EDSS and recorded relapse occurrence. A generalized linear model procedure was used for multivariable analyses (per protocol that explored unique associations of EDSS score change and relapse occurrence with MSQOL-54 physical health composite score (PCS and mental health composite score (MCS. Results. HRQoL improved over 2 years among those who completed the study. Occurrence of ≥1 relapse was significantly associated with lower MSQOL-54 PCS and MCS. Changes in EDSS score were significantly associated with MSQOL-54 PCS, but not MCS. Conclusions. HRQoL assessments, particularly those that examine mental health, may provide information on the general health status of patients with RMS that would not be recognized using traditional clinician-assessed measures of disease severity and activity. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov; identifier: NCT01141751.
Pálfy, József; Price, Gregory D.; Vörös, Attila; Kovács, Zsófia; Johannson, Gary G.
2017-04-01
Cold seeps, where seepage of methane and/or other hydrocarbon-rich fluids and hydrogen-sulfide occurs in the sea floor, are sites which harbor highly specialized ecosystems associated with distinctive carbonate sediments. Although their Mesozoic record is scarce and patchy, it commonly includes rhynchonellid brachiopods, often of large size. Each new occurrence is valuable in filling gaps and providing additional insight into these peculiar ecosystems. Here we report a monospecific assemblage of Anarhynchia from a boulder-sized limestone clast of Early Pliensbachian (Early Jurassic) age in the Inklin Formation of the Whitehorse Trough in Stikine terrane, recovered from a locality at Copper Island in Atlin Lake, northern British Columbia, Canada. Specimens are of unusually large size, up to 9 cm in length, and their external and internal morphology allows assignment to Anarhynchia but warrants introduction of a new species. Although d13C and d18O values of the shells are close to equilibrium with ancient seawater, early precipitated carbonate cement phases of the enclosing limestone are characterised by highly depleted carbon isotopic composition, indicative of the influence of microbial oxidation of methane derived from a cold seep. Carbonate petrography of the isopachous, banded-fibrous cement supports its origin in a cold seep environment. Volcanogenic detrital grains in the micritic matrix of the limestone clast are indistinguishable from those in the sandstone layers in the siliciclastic sequence, suggesting that the seep carbonate is broadly coeval with the enclosing conglomerate. Previously, Anarhynchia has been known from the Lower Jurassic of California and Oregon, from both cold seep and hydrothermal vent deposits. Our new record extends the geographic range and species-level diversity of the genus, but supports its endemism to the East Pacific and membership in chemosynthesis-based ecosystems.
Occurrence of Cr(VI) in drinking water of Greece and relation to the geological background.
Kaprara, E; Kazakis, N; Simeonidis, K; Coles, S; Zouboulis, A I; Samaras, P; Mitrakas, M
2015-01-08
This study provides a survey on potential Cr(VI) exposure attributed to drinking water in Greece. For this reason, a wide sampling and chemical analysis of tap waters from around 600 sites, supplied by groundwater resources, was conducted focusing on areas in which the geological substrate is predominated by ultramafic minerals. Results indicate that although violations of the current chromium regulation limit in tap water are very rare, 25% of cases showed Cr(VI) concentrations above 10 μg/L, whereas Cr(VI) was detectable in 70% of the samples (>2 μg/L). Mineralogy and conditions of groundwater reservoirs were correlated to suggest a possible Cr(VI) leaching mechanism. Higher Cr(VI) values are observed in aquifers in alluvial and neogene sediments of serpentine and amphibolite, originating from the erosion of ophiolithic and metamorphic rocks. In contrast, Cr(VI) concentration in samples from ophiolithic and metamorphic rocks was always below 10 μg/L due to both low contact time and surface area, as verified by low conductivity and salt concentration values. These findings indicate that under specific conditions, pollution of water by Cr(VI) is favorable by a slow MnO2-catalyzed oxidation of soluble Cr(III) to Cr(VI) in which manganese products [Mn(III)/Mn(II)] are probably re-oxidized by oxygen. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Processing of Relative Clauses is Made Easier by Frequency of Occurrence
Reali, Florencia; Christiansen, Morten H.
2007-01-01
We conducted a large-scale corpus analysis indicating that pronominal object relative clauses are significantly more frequent than pronominal subject relative clauses when the embedded pronoun is personal. This difference was reversed when impersonal pronouns constituted the embedded noun phrase. This pattern of distribution provides a suitable…
Hansen, Camilla; Zinckernagel, Line; Schneekloth, Nanna
2017-01-01
fibrillation, heart failure, or heart valve disease. Presence of supportive relatives was measured as the degree to which the patients felt that they had relatives they could count on, while symptoms of anxiety and depression were measured by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Multiple logistic...
Radożycki, Tomasz
2016-11-01
The probability density distributions for the ground states of certain model systems in quantum mechanics and for their classical counterparts are considered. It is shown, that classical distributions are remarkably improved by incorporating into them the Heisenberg uncertainty relation between position and momentum. Even the crude form of this incorporation makes the agreement between classical and quantum distributions unexpectedly good, except for the small area, where classical momenta are large. It is demonstrated that the slight improvement of this form, makes the classical distribution very similar to the quantum one in the whole space. The obtained results are much better than those from the WKB method. The paper is devoted to ground states, but the method applies to excited states too.
Frédérique Caillot; Céine Derambure; Paulette Bioulac-Sage; Arnaud Fran(c)ois; Michel Scotte; Odile Goria; Martine Hiron; Maryvonne Daveau; Jean-Philippe Salier
2009-01-01
AIM: To search for transcription dysregulation that could (1) differentiate hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)-free from HCC-related cirrhosis (2) differentiate HCCfree cirrhosis related to HCV from that related to alcohol intake.METHODS: Using microarray analysis, we compared transcript levels in HCC-free cirrhosis (alcoholism: 7;hepatitis C: 7), HCC-associated cirrhosis (alcoholism:10; hepatitis C: 10) and eight control livers. The identified transcripts were validated by qRT-PCR in an independent cohort of 45 samples (20 HCCfree cirrhosis; 15 HCC-associated cirrhosis and 10 control livers). We also confirmed our results by immunohistochemistry.transcripts which differentiated between alcoholicrelated cirrhosis, HCV-related cirrhosis and control livers. They mainly corresponded to down-regulation.Dysregulation of Signal Transduction and Activator of Transcription-3 (STAT-3) was found along with related changes in STAT-3 targets which occurred in an etiology-dependent fashion in HCC-free cirrhosis.In contrast, in HCC, such transcription dysregulations were not observed.CONCLUSION: We report that transcriptional dysregulations exist in HCC-free cirrhosis, are transiently observed prior to detectable HCC onset and may be appear like markers from cirrhosis to HCC transition.
Isselhardt, Brett H. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
2011-09-01
Resonance Ionization Mass Spectrometry (RIMS) has been developed as a method to measure relative uranium isotope abundances. In this approach, RIMS is used as an element-selective ionization process to provide a distinction between uranium atoms and potential isobars without the aid of chemical purification and separation. We explore the laser parameters critical to the ionization process and their effects on the measured isotope ratio. Specifically, the use of broad bandwidth lasers with automated feedback control of wavelength was applied to the measurement of ^{235}U/^{238}U ratios to decrease laser-induced isotopic fractionation. By broadening the bandwidth of the first laser in a 3-color, 3-photon ionization process from a bandwidth of 1.8 GHz to about 10 GHz, the variation in sequential relative isotope abundance measurements decreased from >10% to less than 0.5%. This procedure was demonstrated for the direct interrogation of uranium oxide targets with essentially no sample preparation. A rate equation model for predicting the relative ionization probability has been developed to study the effect of variation in laser parameters on the measured isotope ratio. This work demonstrates that RIMS can be used for the robust measurement of uranium isotope ratios.
Potato is an important crop globally and late blight (Phytophthora infestans) often results in severe crop loss. The cost for late blight control can be in excess of $210 million in the United States. We utilized a non-parametric density distribution analysis of local temperature (Temp) and relative...
Ascites in chickens. Oxygen consumption and requirement related to its occurrence.
Scheele, C.W.
1996-01-01
The present thesis describes the etiology of heart failure syndrome (HFS) and ascites in broiler chickens.In The Netherlands, ascites, as a cause of mortality in broiler chickens, is increasing steadily. Rates of mortality in broiler flocks in practice, related to HFS and ascites, during a growth pe
Temperature-Related Risk Factors for the Occurrence of Campylobacter in Broilers in Iceland
Introduction A summertime increased risk of Campylobacter is well-established in humans and broilers. Our objective was to identify temperature-related risk factors for the colonization of broiler flocks with Campylobacter in Iceland, with an assumption that flies play a role in the epidemiology an...
Ascites in chickens : oxygen consumption and requirement related to its occurrence
Scheele, C.W.
1996-01-01
The present thesis describes the etiology of heart failure syndrome (HFS) and ascites in broiler chickens.
In The Netherlands, ascites, as a cause of mortality in broiler chickens, is increasing steadily. Rates of mortality in broiler flocks in practice, related to HFS and
Assessment of arsenic (As) occurrence in arable soil and its related health risk in China.
Zhang, Xiuying; Zhong, Taiyang; Chen, Dongmei; Cheng, Min; Liu, Lei; Zhang, Xiaomin; Li, Xinhui
2016-06-01
Arsenic (As) is a major global environmental pollutant due to its high toxicity on human and animal health. This study collected 427 relevant papers to study As concentrations in Chinese arable soil and evaluate the health risk of exposure to As for humans. Results showed that the average of As concentration was 9.46 mg/kg in Chinese arable soil. Soil As concentrations in Hunan Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region posed high carcinogenic and non-cancer risks on human health through diet, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangdong, and Xinjiang provinces had relative high health risks, while As concentrations in the other provinces posed low health risks on humans. The physical factors controlled the spatial pattern of health risk on a provincial scale, but the As-related human activities introduced high health risk on people, particularly the agricultural activities such as sewage irrigation and fertilizer application should be given more attention due to its large area.
Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities
Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value
2004-01-01
Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the
Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia
We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned
Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia
2013-01-01
We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned prob
Generazio, Edward R.
2014-01-01
Unknown risks are introduced into failure critical systems when probability of detection (POD) capabilities are accepted without a complete understanding of the statistical method applied and the interpretation of the statistical results. The presence of this risk in the nondestructive evaluation (NDE) community is revealed in common statements about POD. These statements are often interpreted in a variety of ways and therefore, the very existence of the statements identifies the need for a more comprehensive understanding of POD methodologies. Statistical methodologies have data requirements to be met, procedures to be followed, and requirements for validation or demonstration of adequacy of the POD estimates. Risks are further enhanced due to the wide range of statistical methodologies used for determining the POD capability. Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' rule POD methodologies are widely used in determining POD capability. This work focuses on Hit-Miss data to reveal the framework of the interrelationships between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' Rule methodologies as they are applied to POD. Knowledge of these interrelationships leads to an intuitive and global understanding of the statistical data, procedural and validation requirements for establishing credible POD estimates.
RODRIGO I. CERRI
2017-08-01
Full Text Available ABSTRACT This paper presents a new approach of landslides zonation hazard studies, based on an integrated study of structural data along with geomorphological and external factors, in a hilly regions of Brazil, covered by a tropical humid rain-forest, called Serra do Mar. The Serra do Mar consists of a hilly region along the east coast of Brazil, with high slopes and many geological structures in a gneiss - migmatitic terrain. In contrast to traditional approaches, this method proposes that structural data (foliation, fractures and bedding planes and its relation with the slope geometry, is important to be consider in the landslide zonation hazard, along with declivity, relative relief, soil and rock properties, land use and vegetation cover and hydrogeological and climate factors. Results show that slopes with high hazard have the same dip direction of geological structures. Landslide zonation hazard using structural data contributes to a better understanding of how these structures, preserved in tropical residual soils, influence on slope stability and generates landslides.
Cerri, Rodrigo I; Reis, Fábio A G V; Gramani, Marcelo F; Giordano, Lucilia C; Zaine, José Eduardo
2017-08-31
This paper presents a new approach of landslides zonation hazard studies, based on an integrated study of structural data along with geomorphological and external factors, in a hilly regions of Brazil, covered by a tropical humid rain-forest, called Serra do Mar. The Serra do Mar consists of a hilly region along the east coast of Brazil, with high slopes and many geological structures in a gneiss - migmatitic terrain. In contrast to traditional approaches, this method proposes that structural data (foliation, fractures and bedding planes) and its relation with the slope geometry, is important to be consider in the landslide zonation hazard, along with declivity, relative relief, soil and rock properties, land use and vegetation cover and hydrogeological and climate factors. Results show that slopes with high hazard have the same dip direction of geological structures. Landslide zonation hazard using structural data contributes to a better understanding of how these structures, preserved in tropical residual soils, influence on slope stability and generates landslides.
A brief review of the occurrence, use, and safety of food-related nanomaterials.
Magnuson, Bernadene A; Jonaitis, Tomas S; Card, Jeffrey W
2011-08-01
Nanotechnology and nanomaterials have tremendous potential to enhance the food supply through novel applications, including nutrient and bioactive absorption and delivery systems; ingredient functionality; improved colors and flavors; microbial, allergen, and contaminant detection and control; and food packaging properties and performance. To determine the current state of knowledge regarding the safety of these potential uses of nanomaterials, an appraisal of the published literature on the safety of food-related nanomaterials was undertaken. A method of assessment of reliability of toxicology studies was developed to conduct this appraisal. The review of the toxicology literature on oral exposure to food-related nanomaterials found that the number of studies is limited. Exposure to nanomaterials in the human food chain may occur not only through intentional uses in food manufacturing, but also via uses in agricultural production and carry over from use in other industries. Although a number of analytical methods are useful in physicochemical characterization of manufactured nanomaterials, new methods may be needed to more fully detect and characterize nanomaterials incorporated into foods and in other media. There is a need for additional toxicology studies of sufficient quality and duration on different types of nanomaterials to further our understanding of the characteristics of nanomaterials that affect safety of oral exposure resulting from use in various food applications.
Vsevolozhskaya, Olga A; Anthony, James C
2016-06-29
Measured as elapsed time from first use to dependence syndrome onset, the estimated "induction interval" for cocaine is thought to be short relative to the cannabis interval, but little is known about risk of becoming dependent during first months after onset of use. Virtually all published estimates for this facet of drug dependence epidemiology are from life histories elicited years after first use. To improve estimation, we turn to new month-wise data from nationally representative samples of newly incident drug users identified via probability sampling and confidential computer-assisted self-interviews for the United States National Surveys on Drug Use and Health, 2004-2013. Standardized modules assessed first and most recent use, and dependence syndromes, for each drug subtype. A four-parameter Hill function depicts the drug dependence transition for subgroups defined by units of elapsed time from first to most recent use, with an expectation of greater cocaine dependence transitions for cocaine versus cannabis. This study's novel estimates for cocaine users one month after first use show 2-4% with cocaine dependence; 12-17% are dependent when use has persisted. Corresponding cannabis estimates are 0-1% after one month, but 10-23% when use persists. Duration or persistence of cannabis smoking beyond an initial interval of a few months of use seems to be a signal of noteworthy risk for, or co-occurrence of, rapid-onset cannabis dependence, not too distant from cocaine estimates, when we sort newly incident users into subgroups defined by elapsed time from first to most recent use. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Pedological characteristics related to groundwater occurrence in the Tarkwa area, Ghana
Kuma, J. S.; Younger, P. L.
2001-08-01
Saturated hydraulic conductivities ( Ks) and textural characteristics of soil have been determined by infiltration and particle size distribution tests, respectively, at 56 sites. These soil tests were conducted in the B-horizon during a groundwater resources survey in the Tarkwa area, Ghana. It was observed, in general, that extremely poorly sorted soils exhibited low porosity and relatively higher Ks, while relatively better sorted soils revealed high porosity and low Ks values. The range of Ks of the soils is from 10 -5-10 -8 m s -1, although the overwhelming majority is in the 10 -6-10 -7 m s -1 range. Tarkwaian soils are mainly silty sands with minor lateritic patches, which are located on hilly terrain underlain by Banket Series and Tarkwa Phyllite rocks. Banket soils are located mainly on hills, which act as groundwater recharge areas and exhibit the most favourable characteristics for infiltration in the area, in terms of both particle size distribution and Ks values. The preponderance of the Banket soils implies that they are the best medium for groundwater recharge in the area and can be expected to act as fair-yielding regolith aquifers in favourable areas. Huni and Kawere soils located in low-lying areas display characteristics suggesting that the Huni, with a much better sorting coefficient and Ks value, will admit more precipitation for recharge compared to the Kawere. Baseflow indices, determined for four catchments in the area, all reveal low storage characteristics in the range of 17-33%, reflecting a strong influence of the textural properties of soil. The moisture content of the soils varies from about 10% in the Banket gravels to 22% in dykes, while field capacity and permanent wilting point are estimated at 20-25% and 7-9% by volume, respectively. The pH of the soils varies from very acidic to moderately acidic, that is 1.72-5.01. The lowest pH values are associated with felsic dykes and are caused by the presence of well-disseminated fine
Philosophical theories of probability
Gillies, Donald
2000-01-01
The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.
Occurrence of Tn4371-related mobile elements and sequences in (chloro)biphenyl-degrading bacteria.
Springael, D; Ryngaert, A; Merlin, C; Toussaint, A; Mergeay, M
2001-01-01
Tn4371, a 55-kb transposable element involved in the degradation and biphenyl or 4-chlorobiphenyl identified in Ralstonia eutropha A5, displays a modular structure including a phage-like integrase gene (int), a Pseudomonas-like (chloro)biphenyl catabolic gene cluster (bph), and RP4- and Ti-plasmid-like transfer genes (trb) (C. Merlin, D. Springael, and A. Toussaint, Plasmid 41:40-54, 1999). Southern blot hybridization was used to examine the presence of different regions of Tn4371 in a collection of (chloro)biphenyl-degrading bacteria originating from different habitats and belonging to different bacterial genera. Tn4371-related sequences were never detected on endogenous plasmids. Although the gene probes containing only bph sequences hybridized to genomic DNA from most strains tested, a limited selection of strains, all beta-proteobacteria, displayed hybridization patterns similar to the Tn4371 bph cluster. Homology between Tn4371 and DNA of two of those strains, originating from the same area as strain A5, extended outside the catabolic genes and covered the putative transfer region of Tn4371. On the other hand, none of the (chloro)biphenyl degraders hybridized with the outer left part of Tn4371 containing the int gene. The bph catabolic determinant of the two strains displaying homology to the Tn4371 transfer genes and a third strain isolated from the A5 area could be mobilized to a R. eutropha recipient, after insertion into an endogenous or introduced IncP1 plasmid. The mobilized DNA of those strains included all Tn4371 homologous sequences previously identified in their genome. Our observations show that the bph genes present on Tn4371 are highly conserved between different (chloro)biphenyl-degrading hosts, isolated globally but belonging mainly to the beta-proteobacteria. On the other hand, Tn4371-related mobile elements carrying bph genes are apparently only found in isolates from the environment that provided the Tn4371-bearing isolate A5.
Tsou, Ching-Ying; Chigira, Masahiro; Matsushi, Yuki; Chen, Su-Chin
2013-04-01
The Central Range of Taiwan is an example of a tectonically active orogen. The topography of a mountainous catchment of the Dahan River in northern side of the Central Range exhibits V-shaped inner valleys where landsliding is the dominant process of hillslope erosion and bedrock rivers are incising into the landscape. We take two approaches including (i) the study of present day morphostructural features of gravitationally deformed slopes and (ii) the study of the relationship between the gravitational slope deformation and fluvial incision to research the linkage of gravitational slope deformations, catastrophic landslides, and landscape evolution for the prediction of potential sites of future landslides. Mapped deep-seated gravitational slope deformations and scars of rainfall-induced rock/debris avalanches imply that their distributions are closely related to three series of convex slope breaks relating to the rejuvenation of topography by a three-phase fluvial incision leaded by three series of knickpoints migration. Many shallow rock/debris avalanches have occurred below the lowest slope break. By contrast, majority of gravitational slope deformations have occurred at the margins of the highest slope break around the paleosurface remnants, suggesting that the rejuvenation caused debuttressing of hillslopes and subsequent stress-release led to large scale slope destabilization, resulting in gravitational slope deformations. Catastrophic landslides in many locations deem to be preceded by gravitational slope deformation of rocks with adverse geological structures, many of which are buckling of alternating beds of sandstone and mudstone, and toppling of argillite and slate. The gravitationally deformed slopes change the topography and remain for a long time, and commonly accompany with some other types of mass movements (e.g. debris flows, rock/debris avalanches, and rockfalls). The results suggest that landslides are strongly controlled by geomorphology and
Lumpkin, G.R. [Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Menai, New South Wales (Australia). Materials Div.; Mariano, A.N.
1996-08-01
Stoichiometric and non-stoichiometric (defect) pyrochlores crystallize during the magmatic and late magmatic-hydrothermal phases of carbonatite emplacement (T > 450--550 C, P < 2 kb). Defect pyrochlores can also form at low temperatures in laterite horizons during weathering. After crystallization, pyrochlore is subject to alteration by hydrothermal fluids (T {approximately} 550--200 C) and ground water. Alteration occurs primarily by ion exchange of low valence A-site cations together with O, F, and OH ions. The high valence cations Th and U are generally immobile; however, the authors have documented one example of hydrothermal alteration involving loss of U together with cation exchange at the B-site in samples from Mountain Pass, California. During laterite accumulation, the cation exchange rate of pyrochlore greatly exceeds the rate of matrix dissolution. The exceptional durability of pyrochlore in natural environments is related to the stability of the B-site framework cations. In carbonatites, defect pyrochlores may contain significant amounts of Si (up to 7.6 wt% SiO{sub 2}) which is negatively correlated with Nb.
Gudder, Stanley P
2014-01-01
Quantum probability is a subtle blend of quantum mechanics and classical probability theory. Its important ideas can be traced to the pioneering work of Richard Feynman in his path integral formalism.Only recently have the concept and ideas of quantum probability been presented in a rigorous axiomatic framework, and this book provides a coherent and comprehensive exposition of this approach. It gives a unified treatment of operational statistics, generalized measure theory and the path integral formalism that can only be found in scattered research articles.The first two chapters survey the ne
Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg
The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...
Arsenic in groundwater of Licking County, Ohio, 2012—Occurrence and relation to hydrogeology
Thomas, Mary Ann
2016-02-23
(2) deeper open intervals, relative to the water level.The spatial distribution of arsenic concentrations was compared to hydrogeologic characteristics of Licking County. Elevated concentrations of arsenic (and iron) were associated with areas of flat topography and thick (greater than 100 feet),clay-rich glacial deposits. These characteristics are conducive to development of strongly reducing redox conditions, which can cause arsenic associated with iron oxyhydroxides in the aquifer matrix to be released to the groundwater.Hydrogeologic characteristics conducive to the development of strongly reducing groundwater are relatively wide-spread in the western part of Licking County, which is part of the Central Lowland physiographic province. In this area, a thick layer of clay-rich glacial deposits obscures the bedrock surface and creates flat to gently rolling landscape with poorly developed drainage networks. In the eastern part of the county, which is part of the Appalachian Plateaus physiographic province, the landscape includes steep-sided valleys and bedrock uplands. In this area, elevated arsenic concentrations were detected in buried valleys but not in the bedrock uplands, where glacial deposits are thin or absent. The observation that elevated concentrations of arsenic (and iron) were more prevalent in the western part of Licking County is true for both glacial and bedrock aquifers.In Licking County, thick, clay-rich glacial deposits (and elevated concentrations of arsenic) are associated with two hydrogeologic settings—buried valley and complex thick drift. Most wells in the buried-valley setting had low arsenic concentrations, but a few samples had very high concentrations (30–44 µg/L) and very reducing redox conditions (methanogenic and near-methanogenic). For wells in the complex-thick-drift setting, elevated arsenic concentrations are more prevalent, but the maximum concentration was lower (about 21 µg/L). Similar observations were made about arsenic
Extra-terrestrial igneous granites and related rocks: A review of their occurrence and petrogenesis
Bonin, Bernard
2012-11-01
The telluric planets and the asteroid belt display the same internal structure with a metallic inner core and a silicate outer shell. Experimental data and petrological evidence in silicate systems show that granite can be produced by extreme igneous differentiation through various types of igneous processes. On Moon, 4.4-3.9 Ga granite clasts display dry mineral assemblages. They correspond to at least 8 discrete intrusive events. Large K/Ca enrichment and low REE abundances in granite relative to KREEP are consistent with silicate liquid immiscibility, a process observed in melt inclusions within olivine of lunar basalts and in lunar meteorites. Steep-sided domes identified by remote sensing can represent intrusive or extrusive felsic formations. On Mars, black-and-white rhythmic layers observed on the Tharsis rise along the flanks of the peripheral scarps of the Tharsis Montes giant volcanoes suggest the possible eruption of felsic pyroclastites. Though no true granites were found so far in the Martian SNC meteorites, felsic glasses and mesostases were identified and a component close to terrestrial continental (granitic) crust is inferred from trace element and isotope systematics. Venus has suffered extensive volcanic resurfacing, whereas folded and faulted areas resemble terrestrial continents. Near large shield volcanoes, with dominant basaltic compositions, steep-sided domes have been interpreted as non-degassed silicic extrusions. The hypothesis of a granitic component is "tantalising". Extra-terrestrial granite is frequently found as clasts and mesostases in asteroidal meteorites. Porphyritic textures, with alkali feldspar crystals up to several centimetres in size, were observed in silicate enclaves within iron meteorites. In the chondrite clan, polymict breccias can contain granitic clasts, whose provenance is debated. One clast from the Adzhi-Bogdo meteorite yields a 4.53 ± 0.03 Ga Pb-Pb age, making it the oldest known granite in the solar system. The
田雨
2016-01-01
Objective To compare the different pathological types of lung cancer occurrence probability of lower ex-tremity thrombosis risk. Methods The incidence of lower extremity thrombosis between 300 cases non-small cell lung cancer (150 cases of adenocarcinoma,150 cases of squalors cell carcinoma)and 300 cases of small cell lung cancer patients,who were selected from February 2010 to April 2015 in our hospital,was compared. Results The occurrence of lower extremity thrombosis in non-small cell lung cancer was 10. 0% higher than 3. 3% in small cell lung cancer,the lung adenocarcinoma pa-tients with deep vein thrombosis rate of 15. 3% was much higher than 4. 7% of lung squamous cell carcinoma,the adenocarci-noma of lower extremity thrombosis incidence of 15. 3% was significantly higher than 3. 3% in small cell lung cancer,the differences were statistically significant(P ﹤ 0. 05). The incidence of lung squamous cell carcinoma of the lower extremity thrombosis was 4. 7% slightly higher than 3. 3% of non-small cell lung cancer,but the difference was not statistically signifi-cant(P ﹥ 0. 05). Conclusion The non-small cell lung cancer risk of lower extremity thrombos is higher than small cell lung cancer,among non-small cell lung cancer the risk of lower limb thrombosis of lung adenocarcinoma is higher than the lung squalors cell carcinoma.%目的：比较不同病理类型肺恶性肿瘤发生下肢血栓风险的几率。方法对2010年2月-2015年4月在我院住院的非小细胞肺癌300例（腺癌150例、鳞癌150例）及300例小细胞肺癌患者发生下肢静脉血栓的几率进行比较。结果非小细胞肺癌患者静脉血栓的发生率为10.0%高于小细胞肺癌的3.3%，肺腺癌患者下肢静脉血栓的发生率为15.3%远高于肺鳞癌的4.7%，肺腺癌下肢血栓的发生率为15.3%明显高于小细胞肺癌的3.3%，差异均有统计学意义（P ﹤0.05）。肺鳞癌下肢血栓的发生率4.7%略高于非小细胞肺癌的3.3%，但
Gorga, Marina; Insa, Sara; Petrovic, Mira; Barceló, Damià
2015-01-15
The environmental presence of chemicals capable of affecting the endocrine system has become a matter of scientific and public concern after certain endocrine disruptor compounds (EDCs) have been detected in the aquatic environment. In this work, 31 different EDCs and related compounds (suspect EDCs) belonging to different contaminant classes were studied: 10 estrogens, natural and synthetic, 8 alkylphenolic compounds, bisphenol A, triclosan and triclorocaraban, 4 parabens, 2 benzotriazoles, 3 organophosphorous flame retardants and the chemical marker caffeine, in river water and sediment of four Iberian rivers (Ebro, Llobregat, Júcar and Guadalquivir). An extensive sampling has been undertaken in two monitoring campaigns (2010 and 2011). A total of 77 samples of water and 75 sediments were collected. For this propose two different multiresidue analytical methods were applied, using the automated online EQuan/TurboFlow™ liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry detection in tandem. In terms of concentrations the compounds found at the highest average concentrations were: nonylphenol monocarboxylate (NP1EC), tolyltriazole (TT), tris(chloroisopropyl)phosphate (TCPP) found at average concentrations above 100 ng/L, followed by 1H-benzotriazole and tris(butoxyethyl)phosphate (TBEP) found at average concentration higher than 50 ng/L. Natural and synthetic hormones were found at low levels not exceeding 16 ng/L and 7 ng/g for water and sediment, respectively, however they contributed to more than 80% of the total estrogenicity of the samples (expressed as the equivalents of estradiol EEQ, ng/L). Regarding the spatial distribution of these contaminants, the Llobregat river was found to be the most contaminated river basin, having sites near the mouth of the river the ones with the highest contaminant load. In the Ebro river basin several hot spots were identified and Júcar showed to be the least contaminated. Overall, the study confirmed the presence of
K. Motojima
2013-11-01
Full Text Available This paper was intended to find out any relation between anomalous line-of-sight propagation on the VHF band and occurrences of earthquakes near the VHF propagation paths. The television and FM radio broadcasting waves on the VHF band were monitored continuously over the long term. For that purpose, a multidirectional VHF band monitoring system was established and utilized. Anomalous line-of-sight propagation on the VHF band was distinguished from the monitored wave by using a statistical analysis. After the stochastic consideration, it was found out that earthquakes associated with anomalous propagation were characterized by magnitude of earthquakes M ≥ 4.5, and distances from epicenters L ≤ 75 km. The anomalous propagation was monitored on the VHF band a few days earlier the associated earthquakes occurred. Moreover, the anomaly appeared on multidirectional propagation paths simultaneously. The anomaly on the line-of-sight propagation indicates possibility of narrow focusing the area of epicenter of earthquake.
Arsenic in groundwater of Licking County, Ohio, 2012—Occurrence and relation to hydrogeology
Thomas, Mary Ann
2016-02-23
(2) deeper open intervals, relative to the water level.The spatial distribution of arsenic concentrations was compared to hydrogeologic characteristics of Licking County. Elevated concentrations of arsenic (and iron) were associated with areas of flat topography and thick (greater than 100 feet),clay-rich glacial deposits. These characteristics are conducive to development of strongly reducing redox conditions, which can cause arsenic associated with iron oxyhydroxides in the aquifer matrix to be released to the groundwater.Hydrogeologic characteristics conducive to the development of strongly reducing groundwater are relatively wide-spread in the western part of Licking County, which is part of the Central Lowland physiographic province. In this area, a thick layer of clay-rich glacial deposits obscures the bedrock surface and creates flat to gently rolling landscape with poorly developed drainage networks. In the eastern part of the county, which is part of the Appalachian Plateaus physiographic province, the landscape includes steep-sided valleys and bedrock uplands. In this area, elevated arsenic concentrations were detected in buried valleys but not in the bedrock uplands, where glacial deposits are thin or absent. The observation that elevated concentrations of arsenic (and iron) were more prevalent in the western part of Licking County is true for both glacial and bedrock aquifers.In Licking County, thick, clay-rich glacial deposits (and elevated concentrations of arsenic) are associated with two hydrogeologic settings—buried valley and complex thick drift. Most wells in the buried-valley setting had low arsenic concentrations, but a few samples had very high concentrations (30–44 µg/L) and very reducing redox conditions (methanogenic and near-methanogenic). For wells in the complex-thick-drift setting, elevated arsenic concentrations are more prevalent, but the maximum concentration was lower (about 21 µg/L). Similar observations were made about arsenic
Shiryaev, Albert N
2016-01-01
This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.
Ishida, Mitsuaki; Hodohara, Keiko; Furuya, Aya; Fujishiro, Aya; Okuno, Hiroko; Yoshii, Miyuki; Horinouchi, Akiko; Shirakawa, Ayaka; Harada, Ayumi; Iwai, Muneo; Yoshida, Keiko; Kagotani, Akiko; Yoshida, Takashi; Okabe, Hidetoshi
2014-01-01
IgG4-related sclerosing disease is an established disease entity with characteristic clinicopathological features. Some recent reports have demonstrated that this disease can occur in the respiratory system including the pleura. Herein, we describe the first documented case of concomitant occurrence of IgG4-related pleuritis and periaortitis. A 71-year-old Japanese female with a history of essential thrombocythemia presented with persistent cough and difficulty in breathing. Computed tomography demonstrated thickening of the right parietal pleura, pericardium, and periaortic tissue and pleural and cardiac effusions. Histopathological study of the surgical biopsy specimen of the parietal pleura revealed marked fibrous thickening with lymphoplasmacytic infiltration. Phlebitis was noted, however, only a few eosinophils had infiltrated. Immunohistochemical study revealed abundant IgG4-positive plasma cell infiltration and high ratio of IgG4-/IgG-positive plasma cells (84%). Therefore, a diagnosis of IgG4-related pleuritis was made with consideration of the elevated serum IgG4 level (684 mg/dL). Recently, the spectrum of IgG4-related sclerosing disease has expanded, and this disease can occur in the pleura, pericardium, and periaortic tissue. Although histopathological analysis of the pericardium and periaortic tissue was not performed in the present case, it was suspected that thickening of the pericardium and periaortic tissue was clinically due to IgG4-related sclerosing disease. Our clinicopathological analyses of IgG4-related pleuritis and pericarditis reveal that this disease can present as dyspnea and pleural and pericardial effusion as seen in the present case, therefore, it is important to recognize that IgG4-related sclerosing disease can occur in these organs for accurate diagnosis and treatment.
Zhou Yi-Bo
2008-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Biomedical researchers often want to explore pathogenesis and pathways regulated by abnormally expressed genes, such as those identified by microarray analyses. Literature mining is an important way to assist in this task. Many literature mining tools are now available. However, few of them allows the user to make manual adjustments to zero in on what he/she wants to know in particular. Results We present our software program, GenCLiP (Gene Cluster with Literature Profiles, which is based on the methods presented by Chaussabel and Sher (Genome Biol 2002, 3(10:RESEARCH0055 that search gene lists to identify functional clusters of genes based on up-to-date literature profiling. Four features were added to this previously described method: the ability to 1 manually curate keywords extracted from the literature, 2 search genes and gene co-occurrence networks related to custom keywords, 3 compare analyzed gene results with negative and positive controls generated by GenCLiP, and 4 calculate probabilities that the resulting genes and gene networks are randomly related. In this paper, we show with a set of differentially expressed genes between keloids and normal control, how implementation of functions in GenCLiP successfully identified keywords related to the pathogenesis of keloids and unknown gene pathways involved in the pathogenesis of keloids. Conclusion With regard to the identification of disease-susceptibility genes, GenCLiP allows one to quickly acquire a primary pathogenesis profile and identify pathways involving abnormally expressed genes not previously associated with the disease.
Lexicographic Probability, Conditional Probability, and Nonstandard Probability
2009-11-11
the following conditions: CP1. µ(U |U) = 1 if U ∈ F ′. CP2 . µ(V1 ∪ V2 |U) = µ(V1 |U) + µ(V2 |U) if V1 ∩ V2 = ∅, U ∈ F ′, and V1, V2 ∈ F . CP3. µ(V |U...µ(V |X)× µ(X |U) if V ⊆ X ⊆ U , U,X ∈ F ′, V ∈ F . Note that it follows from CP1 and CP2 that µ(· |U) is a probability measure on (W,F) (and, in... CP2 hold. This is easily seen to determine µ. Moreover, µ vaciously satisfies CP3, since there do not exist distinct sets U and X in F ′ such that U
Ciprian Margarint, Mihai; Santangelo, Michele; Niculita, Mihai; Bucci, Francesco
2016-04-01
Terraced landscapes are one of the most obvious human-shaped landscapes, mainly used to reduce the negative impact of soil erosion due to uncontrolled runoff and shallow landslides occurrence. Nevertheless, as the recent literature emphasizes, these old best practices can transform into a potential hazard for soil degradation, if not appropriately maintained. In Moldavian Plateau (NE Romania), agricultural terraces were built after the 1960s for landslide, soil erosion and runoff control, mainly in connection with construction of reservoirs, for increasing their operation time. Usually, the slope reduction was obtained by construction of cut-off ditches, hillside ditches, intermittent terraces, bench terraces, broad-based terraces, vineyardand orchard terraces. Due to the dry climatic setting, to the lack of hard rocks for construction, and to the generally light earth moving machinery available for construction, terraces are generally characterized by a small escarpment (0.5m to 1m), and a relatively short lateral extension (5 to 40 m). When the terraces were maintained, the backslope was typically covered with grass. When, after the 1990s, the lands were returned to the initial owners, the vegetation cover of the terraces was no more maintained, and the terraces themselves were progressively abandoned, due to lack of funds. Accurate landslide mapping on high resolution LiDAR DEM derived images, allowed to produce geomorphological inventories in 5 test cases, representative of the whole study area. In each inventory, landslides were classified based on type and relative age based on published classification schemes. We investigate the spatial and temporal relation between landslides occurrence and terraces, based on the spatial interactions of landslides of different ages and terraces. Results reveal that terraces were built, both on landslide-free and landslide-bearing slopes, and that frequently landslides and gullies develop on terraced slopes. Reactivations of
尹美娟; 王清贤; 刘晓楠
2012-01-01
针对现有Web社会关系评估方法准确率较低的问题,提出一种结合网页与语句共现的Web社会关系评估方法.根据人名对在Web中的网页共现和页面内语句共现情况,综合评估2个人之间社会关系的强弱,设计相应的关系评估函数.实验结果表明,该评估方法能准确地度量Web社会关系的强弱,并且在度量关系权重时,语句共现比网页共现对评估结果的准确性起到更重要的决定作用.%As there are several problems for existing Web social relation evaluation methods whose accurate is not high and have poor stability, this paper proposes a Web social relation evaluation method based on both Web page co-occurrence and intra-page sentence co-occurrence. The method assigns weights to the relation between two persons by information about their names co-occurrence in Web pages and co-occurrence in sentences of Web pages. And two weighting functions are designed based on the proposed method. Experimental results show that the method can assign more appropriate weights to relations in Web social networks and the stability of the method is better, and statement co-occur is more important decision function than web co-occur when metric relations weight.
Espinosa, Ana; Alegret, Montserrat; Pesini, Pedro; Valero, Sergi; Lafuente, Asunción; Buendía, Mar; San José, Itziar; Ibarria, Marta; Tejero, Miguel A.; Giménez, Joan; Ruiz, Susana; Hernández, Isabel; Pujadas, Francesc; Martínez-Lage, Pablo; Munuera, Josep; Arbizu, Javier; Tárraga, Lluis; Hendrix, Suzanne B.; Ruiz, Agustín; Becker, James T.; Landau, Susan M.; Sotolongo-Grau, Oscar; Sarasa, Manuel; Boada, Mercè
2017-01-01
The probable-amnestic (Pr-a) mild cognitive impairment (MCI)-storage subtype is a phenotype with 8.5 times more risk of conversion to dementia, mainly Alzheimer’s disease (AD), than the possible non-amnestic (Pss-na) MCI. The aim of this study was to find the optimized cognitive composites (CCs) domain scores most related to neuroimaging biomarkers within Pr-aMCI-storage subtype patients. The Fundació ACE (ACE) study with 20 Pr-aMCI-storage subtype subjects (MCI) were analyzed. All subjects underwent a neuropsychological assessment, a structural MRI, FDG-PET, and PIB-PET. The adjusted hippocampal volume (aHV) on MRI, the standard uptake value ratio (SUVR) on FDG-PET and PIB-PET SUVR measures were analyzed. The construction of the CCs domain scores, and the aHV on MRI and FDG-PET SUVR measures, were replicated in the parental AB255 study database (n = 133 MCI). Partial correlations adjusted by age, gender, and education were calculated with the associated p-value among every CC domain score and the neuroimaging biomarkers. The results were replicated in the “MCI due to AD” with memory storage impairments from ADNI. Delayed Recall CC domain score was significantly correlated with PIB-PET SUVR (β= –0.61, p = 0.003) in the ACE study and also with aHV on MRI (β= 0.27, p = 0.01) and FDG-PET SUVR (β= 0.27, p = 0.01) in the AB255 study. After a median survival time of 20.6 months, 85% from the ACE MCI converted to AD. The replication of our results in the ADNI dataset also confirmed our findings. Delayed Recall is the CC domain score best correlated with neuroimaging biomarkers associated with prodromal AD diagnosis. PMID:28269787
Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo
Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... of insurance companies facing losses due to natural disasters, banks seeking protection against huge losses, failures in expensive and sophisticated systems or loss of valuable information in electronic systems. The main difficulty when dealing with this kind of problems is the unavailability of a closed...
S Varadhan, S R
2001-01-01
This volume presents topics in probability theory covered during a first-year graduate course given at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences. The necessary background material in measure theory is developed, including the standard topics, such as extension theorem, construction of measures, integration, product spaces, Radon-Nikodym theorem, and conditional expectation. In the first part of the book, characteristic functions are introduced, followed by the study of weak convergence of probability distributions. Then both the weak and strong limit theorems for sums of independent rando
2008-01-01
The electric field of the Earth registered by three monitoring sites (ATH, PYR, HIO) located in Greece, is investigated and analyzed after the occurrence of the Methoni EQ (14th of February, 2008, Ms =6.7R). The period of analysis is performed for 2 days (21st-22nd of February) and 7 days after the occurrence of the main seismic event. The obtained results suggest that the seismogenic area generates electrical signals denoting a specific epicentral area. This area coincides with the already s...
Probability and radical behaviorism
Espinosa, James M.
1992-01-01
The concept of probability appears to be very important in the radical behaviorism of Skinner. Yet, it seems that this probability has not been accurately defined and is still ambiguous. I give a strict, relative frequency interpretation of probability and its applicability to the data from the science of behavior as supplied by cumulative records. Two examples of stochastic processes are given that may model the data from cumulative records that result under conditions of continuous reinforcement and extinction, respectively. PMID:22478114
Probability and radical behaviorism
Espinosa, James M.
1992-01-01
The concept of probability appears to be very important in the radical behaviorism of Skinner. Yet, it seems that this probability has not been accurately defined and is still ambiguous. I give a strict, relative frequency interpretation of probability and its applicability to the data from the science of behavior as supplied by cumulative records. Two examples of stochastic processes are given that may model the data from cumulative records that result under conditions of continuous reinforc...
De Caro, Josiane; Eydoux, Cécilia; Chérif, Slim; Lebrun, Régine; Gargouri, Youssef; Carrière, Frédéric; De Caro, Alain
2008-05-01
The occurrence of classical pancreatic lipase (PL) and pancreatic lipase-related proteins 1 and 2 (PLRP1s and 2) in the pancreas of ten mammalian species (humans, pig, rat, guinea pig, coypu, rabbit, horse, ox, goat and sheep) and two bird species (ostrich and turkey) was investigated. The lipases were purified from delipidated pancreas and identified based on the results of Western blotting analysis with anti-human PLRP2 serum, the catalytic properties and N-terminal microsequencing data. PLRP2s were detected in the pancreas of monogastric herbivorous animals (guinea pig, coypu, rabbit and horse) but not in that of ruminant herbivorous animals (ox, goat and sheep). The pancreas of carnivorous animals (dogs and cats) does not have any detectable PLRP2, but contains high levels of PL and PLRP1. By contrast, the pancreas of omnivorous animals (humans and rats) contains PL, PLRP1 and PLRP2, with the exception of porcine pancreas, where no PLRP2 was detected. In the case of bird (ostrich and turkey) pancreases, only classical PL was detected. The substrate specificity of PLRP2s was investigated using phospholipid micelles and synthetic monomolecular galactolipid films. Like human PLRP2, rabbit and horse PLRP2s are galactolipases. In polygastric herbivorous animals (ruminants), however, galactolipids are hydrolyzed via microbial enzymatic processes (involving galactolipases). The absence of galactolipids in carnivorous animals' diet may explain why no PLRP2s were detected here in the pancreas of these species.
Halima B. Maïnassara
2010-11-01
Full Text Available Meningococcal disease is a major public health concern in Sahelian Africa, where over half of the cases reported worldwide occur. In an effort to find annual spatial clusters of meningococcal disease and in order to study their evolution in Niger from January 2002 to June 2008, a prospective study of routine national surveillance data was conducted pertaining to patients with suspected bacterial meningitis. The diagnoses were obtained by analysing patients’ cerebrospinal fluid, using polymerase chain reaction or bacteriology. SatScan using Poisson’s model was used to calculate the relative risk (RR of occurrence of spatial clusters. In the 2002-2003 period, 15 spatial clusters of meningococcal meningitis were detected in a total of 3,979 cases with a maximum number of 558 cases per cluster in the south-eastern part of the country (70.5% of all cases that year; RR = 7.85; P <0.001. Other clusters were found in the following years in approximately the same area as those detected in 2002-2003. These clusters were identified in the southeast, which allowed us to identify high-risk groups in this part of the country. Statistically significant spatio- temporal patterns were found, which should be useful in establishing hypotheses for prospective studies on epidemic tendencies and empirical risk factors in the African meningitis belt.
Black, D.G.
1995-06-01
This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the onsite and offsite releases of radioactive and regulated materials. The specific agencies notified of the releases depended on the type, amount, and location of the individual occurrences. The more significant of these off-normal environmental occurrences are summarized in this section.
Duris, J.W.; Haack, S.K.; Fogarty, L.R.
2009-01-01
The relation of bacterial pathogen occurrence to fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) concentrations used for recreational water quality criteria (RWQC) is poorly understood. This study determined the occurrence of Shiga-toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) markers and their relation to FIB concentrations in Michigan and Indiana river water. Using 67 fecal coliform (FC) bacteria cultures from 41 river sites in multiple watersheds, we evaluated the occurrence of five STEC markers: the Escherichia coli (EC) O157 antigen and gene, and the STEC virulence genes eaeA, stx1, and stx2. Simple isolations from selected FC cultures yielded viable EC O157. By both antigen and gene assays, EC O157 was detected in a greater proportion of samples exceeding rather than meeting FC RWQC (P Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.
Gu, Xihui; Zhang, Qiang; Singh, Vijay P.; Chen, Xi; Liu, Lin
2016-07-01
Amplification of floods in the Xinjiang, China, has been observed, but reports on their changing properties and underlying mechanisms are not available. In this study, occurrence rates of floods in the Tarim River basin, the largest inland arid river basin in China, were analyzed using the Kernel density estimation technique and bootstrap resampling method. Also analyzed were the occurrence rates of precipitation extremes using the POT (Peak over Threshold)-based sampling method. Both stationary and non-stationary models were developed using GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) to model flood frequency with time, climate index, precipitation and temperature as major predictors. Results indicated: (1) two periods with increasing occurrence of floods, i.e., the late 1960s and the late 1990s with considerable fluctuations around 2-3 flood events during time intervals between the late 1960s and the late 1990s; (2) changes in the occurrence rates of floods were subject to nonstationarity. A persistent increase of flood frequency and magnitude was observed during the 1990s and reached a peak value; (3) AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and AO (Atlantic Oscillation) in winter were the key influencing climate indices impacting the occurrence rates of floods. However, NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and SOI (South Oscillation Index) are two principle factors that influence the occurrence rates of regional floods. The AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) values indicated that compared to the influence of climate indices, occurrence rates of floods seemed to be more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes. Results of this study are important for flood management and development of mitigation measures.
Jung Nam An
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Warfarin-related nephropathy (WRN is a recently described disease entity, in which excessive warfarinization (international normalized ratio (INR >3.0 causes acute kidney injury. Previous reports regarding WRN included few Asian patients who might have differed from the western WRN patients in terms of genetic and environmental factors. METHODS: During the period of March 2003 to December 2011, the data about a total of 1297 patients who had serum creatinine (sCr level measured within 1 week after INR >3.0 and within 6 months before INR >3.0 was analyzed through the retrospective review of electronic medical records of a single tertiary hospital in Korea. RESULT: WRN developed in 19.3% of patients having excessive warfarinization. The incidence was higher in the chronic kidney disease (CKD group than the non-CKD group. The risk of WRN increased as the basal serum albumin level decreased and was strongly associated with highest quartile serum AST level at post INR elevation and the presence of congestive heart failure. But the presence of atrial fibrillation was protective against the development of WRN. Neither the presence of CKD nor basal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR was an independent risk factor for WRN. Despite no difference in the basal sCr level, the sCr level was higher in patients with WRN than those without WRN after follow-up. The mortality rates were also higher in patients with WRN. CONCLUSIONS: WRN developed in 19.3% of patients having excessive warfarinization. A lower basal serum albumin, highest quartile serum AST level at post INR elevation, and congestive heart failure were associated with the occurrence of WRN. The development of WRN adversely affected renal and patient outcomes.
Kanabar, Dipak; Dale, Stephen; Rawat, Mariyam
2007-12-01
Although many studies have investigated the safety and tolerability of ibuprofen or acetaminophen (paracetamol) use in children, few have specifically examined the association of ibuprofen or acetaminophen and the occurrence of asthma in pediatric populations. The primary objective of this literature review was to ascertain whether ibuprofen use exacerbates the symptoms of asthma or asthma-related adverse events in febrile children, and how it compares with acetaminophen use. The secondary objective was to develop an algorithm that allows for the consideration of ibuprofen treatment in children by health care professionals. Twelve electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Database, DARE, British Nursing Index, CBIB, Derwent Drug File, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, Pharm-Line, CINAHL, PASCAL, SCZZ-SciSearch) were searched from their year of inception to June 2007, to identify English-language articles pertaining to ibuprofen or acetaminophen use in the asthmatic pediatric population. The following search terms were used: asthma, child, pediatric, pediatrics, ibuprofen, Nurofen, Brufen, Motrin, Advil, propionic acid, paracetamol, and acetaminophen. Of 472 articles retrieved, 3 were relevant for the development of the algorithm. Two were subanalyses of a major randomized controlled trial (RCT), the Boston University Fever Study. Therefore, some overlap should be noted. The third article was another RCT. Other studies and review articles identified were used for the discussion. Findings from the literature analysis indicated that the use of ibuprofen in the pediatric population does not exacerbate asthma morbidity. Two of the studies demonstrated that ibuprofen was associated with a lower risk for asthma morbidity in febrile children with or without asthma compared with acetaminophen. In one study, ibuprofen use was associated with a lower relative risk for hospitalization (0.63) and outpatient visits (0.56) for asthma compared with acetaminophen. In
Arno Bernardo Heldwein
2000-10-01
Full Text Available Determinaram-se as disponibilidades de horas de frio abaixo de 7°C (HFThe availability of chilling hours below 7°C (HF<7 and 13°C (HF<13 accumulated every 15 days up to certain date for different levels of probability (1, 10, 20, 50, 80, 90 and 99% in 9 different locations in the central region of Rio Grande do Sul, was determined. Daily chilling hours were measured with thermographes or estimated by minimum and maximum daily temperatures and temperature at 9 pm adapting an analytical method or by multiple regression analysis. A combination of two distributions was used in order to determine the probability of occurring chilling hours. The first was a discrete distribution employed to verify whether there were chilling hours within the interval of 15 days and the other was a continuous distribution to verify the number of chilling hours when occurring. The availability of accumulated chilling hours expected for a given probability was calculated based on the density of gamma distribution. Normal distribution was used only in few cases in which the "g" parameter of the gamma function was greater than 27. It was observed that at least in one of every two years there are above 75 accumulated HF<7 up to June 30 in all locations. The availability of accumulated chilling hours from April, 1st up to September, 15th in 50% of all years varied from 200 HF<7 and 1250 HF<13 in Cachoeira do Sul to 490 HF<7 and 1850 HF<13 in Sobradinho. It was also observed that the variability of chilling hours occurrence among years is large on all locations and the relative difference among the availability of the different locations is proportionally greater at HF<7 than at HF<13. Availability of accumulated chilling hours during April is very low for HF<7, but it is considerable at HF<13. The number of chilling hours decreases drastically from the first 15 days to the last 15 days of September in all locations.
Thanassoulas, C
2008-01-01
The electric field of the Earth registered by three monitoring sites (ATH, PYR, HIO) located in Greece, is investigated and analyzed after the occurrence of the Methoni EQ (14th of February, 2008, Ms =6.7R). The period of analysis is performed for 2 days (21st-22nd of February) and 7 days after the occurrence of the main seismic event. The obtained results suggest that the seismogenic area generates electrical signals denoting a specific epicentral area. This area coincides with the already seismically activated area. An estimate for the time of occurrence of this EQ is made by the application of the Oscillating Lithospheric Plate Model. The analysis of the seismic potential of the regional area suggests that the remaining stored seismic energy is capable of producing a large earthquake in the same area. The expected maximum magnitude (Ms) of a future earthquake which could take place in the same seismogenic area is estimated as Ms = 7.24R by the application of the Lithospheric Seismic Energy flow model.
Kiss, Gabriella B.; Oláh, Erika; Zaccarini, Federica; Szakáll, Sándor
2016-02-01
The geology of the NE Hungarian Darnó Unit is rather complicated, as it is composed mostly of a Jurassic accretionary mélange complex, according to the most recent investigations. The magmatic and sedimentary rock blocks of the mélange represent products of different evolutionary stages of the Neotethys; including Permian and Triassic sedimentary rocks of marine rifting related origin, Triassic pillow basalt of advanced rifting related origin and Jurassic pillow basalt originated in back-arc-basin environment. This small unit contains a copper-gold occurrence in the Permian marly-clayey limestone, an iron enrichment in the Triassic sedimentary succession, a copper-silver ore occurrence in Triassic pillow basalts and a copper ore indication, occurring both in the Triassic and Jurassic pillow basalts. The present study deals with the Cu(-Ag) occurrence in the Triassic basalt and the Fe occurrence in the Triassic sedimentary succession. The former shows significant similarities with the Michigan-type mineralizations, while the latter has typical characteristics of the Fe-SEDEX deposits. All the above localities fit well into the new geological model of the investigated area. The mineralizations represent the different evolutionary stages of the Neotethyan rifting and an epigenetic, Alpine metamorphism-related process and their recent, spatially close position is the result of the accretionary mélange formation. Thus, the Darnó Unit represents a perfect natural laboratory for studying and understanding the characteristic features of several different rifting related ore forming processes.
Liu, Bian; Tarigan, Lukman H; Bromet, Evelyn J; Kim, Hyun
2014-01-01
The World Trade Center (WTC) disaster on September 11, 2001 was an unprecedented traumatic event with long-lasting health consequences among the affected populations in the New York metropolitan area. This meta-analysis aimed to estimate the risk of probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) associated with specific types of WTC exposures. Meta-analytical findings from 10 studies of 3,271 to 20,294 participants yielded 37 relevant associations. The pooled summary odds ratio (OR) was 2.05 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.82, 2.32), with substantial heterogeneity linked to exposure classification, cohort type, data source, PTSD assessment instrument/criteria, and lapse time since 9/11. In general, responders (e.g. police, firefighters, rescue/recovery workers and volunteers) had a lower probable PTSD risk (OR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.39, 1.87) compared to civilians (e.g. residents, office workers, and passersby; OR = 2.71, 95% CI: 2.35, 3.12). The differences in ORs between responders and civilians were larger for physical compared to psychosocial exposure types. We also found that injury, lost someone, and witnessed horror were the three (out of six) most pernicious exposures. These findings suggest that these three exposures should be a particular focus in psychological evaluation and treatment programs in WTC intervention and future emergency preparedness efforts.
Bian Liu
Full Text Available The World Trade Center (WTC disaster on September 11, 2001 was an unprecedented traumatic event with long-lasting health consequences among the affected populations in the New York metropolitan area. This meta-analysis aimed to estimate the risk of probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD associated with specific types of WTC exposures. Meta-analytical findings from 10 studies of 3,271 to 20,294 participants yielded 37 relevant associations. The pooled summary odds ratio (OR was 2.05 (95% confidence interval (CI: 1.82, 2.32, with substantial heterogeneity linked to exposure classification, cohort type, data source, PTSD assessment instrument/criteria, and lapse time since 9/11. In general, responders (e.g. police, firefighters, rescue/recovery workers and volunteers had a lower probable PTSD risk (OR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.39, 1.87 compared to civilians (e.g. residents, office workers, and passersby; OR = 2.71, 95% CI: 2.35, 3.12. The differences in ORs between responders and civilians were larger for physical compared to psychosocial exposure types. We also found that injury, lost someone, and witnessed horror were the three (out of six most pernicious exposures. These findings suggest that these three exposures should be a particular focus in psychological evaluation and treatment programs in WTC intervention and future emergency preparedness efforts.
Pierce, Jordan E; McDowell, Jennifer E
2016-02-01
Cognitive control supports flexible behavior adapted to meet current goals and can be modeled through investigation of saccade tasks with varying cognitive demands. Basic prosaccades (rapid glances toward a newly appearing stimulus) are supported by neural circuitry, including occipital and posterior parietal cortex, frontal and supplementary eye fields, and basal ganglia. These trials can be contrasted with complex antisaccades (glances toward the mirror image location of a stimulus), which are characterized by greater functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signal in the aforementioned regions and recruitment of additional regions such as dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. The current study manipulated the cognitive demands of these saccade tasks by presenting three rapid event-related runs of mixed saccades with a varying probability of antisaccade vs. prosaccade trials (25, 50, or 75%). Behavioral results showed an effect of trial-type probability on reaction time, with slower responses in runs with a high antisaccade probability. Imaging results exhibited an effect of probability in bilateral pre- and postcentral gyrus, bilateral superior temporal gyrus, and medial frontal gyrus. Additionally, the interaction between saccade trial type and probability revealed a strong probability effect for prosaccade trials, showing a linear increase in activation parallel to antisaccade probability in bilateral temporal/occipital, posterior parietal, medial frontal, and lateral prefrontal cortex. In contrast, antisaccade trials showed elevated activation across all runs. Overall, this study demonstrated that improbable performance of a typically simple prosaccade task led to augmented BOLD signal to support changing cognitive control demands, resulting in activation levels similar to the more complex antisaccade task.
Sedinger, J.S.; Chelgren, N.D.; Ward, D.H.; Lindberg, M.S.
2008-01-01
1. Patterns of temporary emigration (associated with non-breeding) are important components of variation in individual quality. Permanent emigration from the natal area has important implications for both individual fitness and local population dynamics. 2. We estimated both permanent and temporary emigration of black brent geese (Branta bernicla nigricans Lawrence) from the Tutakoke River colony, using observations of marked brent geese on breeding and wintering areas, and recoveries of ringed individuals by hunters. We used the likelihood developed by Lindberg, Kendall, Hines & Anderson 2001 (Combining band recovery data and Pollock's robust design to model temporary and permanent emigration. Biometrics, 57, 273-281) to assess hypotheses and estimate parameters. 3. Temporary emigration (the converse of breeding) varied among age classes up to age 5, and differed between individuals that bred in the previous years vs. those that did not. Consistent with the hypothesis of variation in individual quality, individuals with a higher probability of breeding in one year also had a higher probability of breeding the next year. 4. Natal fidelity of females ranged from 0.70 ?? 0.07-0.96 ?? 0.18 and averaged 0.83. In contrast to Lindberg et al. (1998), we did not detect a relationship between fidelity and local population density. Natal fidelity was negatively correlated with first-year survival, suggesting that competition among individuals of the same age for breeding territories influenced dispersal. Once females nested at the Tutakoke River, colony breeding fidelity was 1.0. 5. Our analyses show substantial variation in individual quality associated with fitness, which other analyses suggest is strongly influenced by early environment. Our analyses also suggest substantial interchange among breeding colonies of brent geese, as first shown by Lindberg et al. (1998).
Probability Theory without Bayes' Rule
Rodriques, Samuel G.
2014-01-01
Within the Kolmogorov theory of probability, Bayes' rule allows one to perform statistical inference by relating conditional probabilities to unconditional probabilities. As we show here, however, there is a continuous set of alternative inference rules that yield the same results, and that may have computational or practical advantages for certain problems. We formulate generalized axioms for probability theory, according to which the reverse conditional probability distribution P(B|A) is no...
Nie,J.; Braverman, J.; Hofmayer, C.; Choun, Y.-S.; Kim, M.K.; Choi, I.-K.
2009-04-02
The Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) and Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) are collaborating to develop seismic capability evaluation technology for degraded structures and passive components (SPCs) under a multi-year research agreement. To better understand the status and characteristics of degradation of SPCs in nuclear power plants (NPPs), the first step in this multi-year research effort was to identify and evaluate degradation occurrences of SPCs in U.S. NPPs. This was performed by reviewing recent publicly available information sources to identify and evaluate the characteristics of degradation occurrences and then comparing the information to the observations in the past. Ten categories of SPCs that are applicable to Korean NPPs were identified, comprising of anchorage, concrete, containment, exchanger, filter, piping system, reactor pressure vessel, structural steel, tank, and vessel. Software tools were developed to expedite the review process. Results from this review effort were compared to previous data in the literature to characterize the overall degradation trends.
Wang, Lu; Xu, Kuidong
2013-11-01
The occurrence of the giant jellyfish, Nemopilema nomurai, has been a frequent phenomenon in the Yellow Sea. However, the relationship between the giant jellyfish and protozoa, in particular ciliates, remains largely unknown. We investigated the distribution of nanoflagellates, ciliates, Noctiluca scintillans, and copepod nauplii along the transect 33°N in the Yellow Sea in June and August, 2012, during an occurrence of the giant jellyfish, and in October of that year when the jellyfish was absent. The organisms studied were mainly concentrated in the surface waters in summer, while in autumn they were evenly distributed in the water column. Nanoflagellate, ciliate, and copepod nauplii biomasses increased from early June to August along with jellyfish growth, the first two decreased in October, while N. scintillans biomass peaked in early June to 3 571 μg C/L and decreased in August and October. In summer, ciliate biomass greatly exceeded that of copepod nauplii (4.61-15.04 μg C/L vs. 0.34-0.89 μg C/L). Ciliate production was even more important than biomass, ranging from 6.59 to 34.19 μg C/(L·d) in summer. Our data suggest a tight and positive association among the nano-, micro-, and meso-zooplankton in the study area. Statistical analysis revealed that the abundance and total production of ciliate as well as loricate ciliate biomass were positively correlated with giant jellyfish biomass, indicating a possible predator-prey relationship between ciliates and giant jellyfish. This is in contrast to a previous study, which reported a significant reduction in ciliate standing crops due to the mass occurrence of N. nomurai in summer. Our study indicates that, with its high biomass and, in particular, high production ciliates might support the mass occurrence of giant jellyfish.
Odebiyi, D O; Olawale, O A; Adeniji, Y M
2013-01-01
Computers have become an essential part of life particularly in industrially advanced countries of the world. Children now have greater accessibility to computers both at school and at home. Recent studies suggest that with this increased exposure, there are associated musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) in both school-aged children and adults. To assess the posture assumed by secondary school students during computer use and its impact on the occurrence and severity of reported musculoskeletal discomforts. Posture assumed during normal computer class, occurrence of discomforts, body parts involved and the intensity of discomforts were evaluated in 235 school aged children using Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) scale, Body Discomfort Chart (BDC) and Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) before and after normal computer class. Inferential statistics of t-test and chi-square were used to determine significance difference between variables, with level of significant set at p Computer use produced significant discomforts on the neck, shoulder and low back. There was a significant relationship between participants height and posture assumed. Two hundred and eleven (89.8%) participants reported discomforts/pain during the use of computer. Weight and height were contributory factors to the occurrence of musculoskeletal discomfort/pain (p computer use. Weight and height were implicated as factors that influenced the form of posture and the nature of the reported discomfort. Creating awareness about the knowledge of ergonomics and safety for promotion of good posture was therefore recommended.
Nielsen, Erland Hejn
2003-01-01
of the estimation of the probability of critically delayed delivery beyond a specified threshold value given a certain production batch size and try to establish a relation to certain parameters that can be linked to the degree of regularity of the arrival stream of parts to the job/flow-shop. This last aspect......In this paper we will discuss aspects of the computation of tail-probabilities by simulation in the context of a generic job/flow-shop model consisting of structural elements such as bottle-necks, re-entrance as well as a mixture of these two fundamental types of production complexity and all...... relates remotely to the Lean Thinking philosophy that praises the smooth and uninterrupted production flow to be beneficial to the overall operation of productive plants in general, and we will link our findings to this discussion as well....
Probability in quantum mechanics
J. G. Gilson
1982-01-01
Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.
2013-01-01
Extended-spectrum-beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL E. coli) strains are of major concern because few antibiotics remain active against these bacteria. We investigated the association between the fecal relative abundance (RA) of ESBL-producing E. coli (ESBL-RA) and the occurrence of ESBL E. coli urinary tract infections (UTIs). The first stool samples passed after suspicion of UTI from 310 women with subsequently confirmed E. coli UTIs were sampled and tested for ESBL-RA ...
On the detection probability of neutron star glitches
Yu, M.; Liu, Q.-J.
2017-07-01
Neutron stars are observed to undergo small, abrupt rotational speed-up. This phenomenon is known as glitch. In pulsar timing observations, detection of a neutron star glitch is constrained by the time of occurrence of the event relative to entire observing span and observing cadences, time of occurrence of preceding/subsequent glitches relative to observing cadences and the strength of timing noise. Using the Yu et al. data sets, in this paper, we analyse the observational selection in terms of detection probability. We define partial probabilities for the constraints and use the Monte Carlo method with assuming glitches distribute uniformly to solve the complete probability formula for both group case involving 157 pulsars and individual cases for each of the seven pulsars with glitch numbers ≥5. In the simulations, numerical Bayesian inference is used for glitch identification. With the derived detection probability density and observed results, we uncover glitch size probability distribution embedded in the data for both the group and individual cases. We find the most prominent correction occurred for PSR J1341-6220, in which the exponent of the power-law model varies from the observed +0.7^{+1.4}_{-0.7} to -0.4^{+1.0}_{-0.4}. We suggest observers determine the detection probability for glitch theories, e.g. the self-organized criticality.
De Mey, Eveline; De Klerck, Katrijn; De Maere, Hannelore; Dewulf, Lore; Derdelinckx, Guy; Peeters, Marie-Christine; Fraeye, Ilse; Vander Heyden, Yvan; Paelinck, Hubert
2014-02-01
Regarding food borne intoxications, the accumulation of biogenic amines must be avoided in all kinds of food products. Moreover, biogenic amines can function as precursors for the formation of carcinogenic N-nitrosamines when nitrite is present. To estimate the food safety of the dry fermented sausages available on the Belgian market, a screening of the residual sodium nitrite and nitrate contents, biogenic amines and volatile N-nitrosamine concentrations was performed on 101 samples. The median concentrations of residual NaNO2 and NaNO3 were each individually lower than 20mg/kg. In general, the biogenic amine accumulation remained low at the end of shelf life. Only in one product the amounts of cadaverine and putrescine reached intoxicating levels. Concerning the occurrence of N-nitrosamines, only N-nitrosopiperidine and N-nitrosomorpholine were detected in a high number of samples (resp. 22% and 28%). No correlation between the presence of N-nitrosamines and the biogenic amines content was observed. Although the N-nitrosamines could not been linked to specific product categories, the occurrence of N-nitrosopiperidine could probably be attributed to the use of pepper.
Nielsen, Erland Hejn
2003-01-01
of the estimation of the probability of critically delayed delivery beyond a specified threshold value given a certain production batch size and try to establish a relation to certain parameters that can be linked to the degree of regularity of the arrival stream of parts to the job/flow-shop. This last aspect...... relates remotely to the Lean Thinking philosophy that praises the smooth and uninterrupted production flow to be beneficial to the overall operation of productive plants in general, and we will link our findings to this discussion as well....
Maria Csosz
2012-12-01
Full Text Available 1879-2720 leaf samples from 8-13 stations of Hungary were collected in March, April, May and June 2000-2002. Drechslera tritici-repentis, Septoria tritici, Stagonospora nodorum and Bipolaris sorokiniana were found in the leaf samples. The occurrence of necrotrophic pathogens was highest (10,79% in 2001 and lowest (2,63% in 2002. The occurrence and rate of the necrotrophic pathogens changed significantly among years and locations. The resistance of cultivars based on natural infection could not be properly evaluated, as the level of the epidemic was mostly low and contradictory among locations. Additionally forty four cultivars were tested in Szeged after winter wheat in protected and unprotected environment. Among the necrotrophic pathogens, the dominant pathogens were D. tritici-repentis (2001 and 2002 and S. nodorum (2001. The differences in variety resistance were significant. The biotrophic (leaf rust, yellow rust and powdery mildew as well as the mentioned necrotrophic pathogens caused significant yield decrease in both years. According to values of correlation coefficients, the influence of biotrophic pathogens was greater on the yield.
Gürbüz, Ramazan; Birgin, Osman; Çatlioglu, Hakan
2012-01-01
The aim of the paper is to compare and evaluate the probability-related misconceptions of pupils at different education levels. A cross-sectional/age study was thus conducted with 540 pupils in 5th-8th grades. An instrument, comprising six questions on the concepts of compound events, probability of an event and probability comparisons, was used.…
Ehsan Hosseini
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Placenta membranacea is one of the most barley anomalies happens in pregnancy defined by chorionic villi (partially or completely covered the fetus membrane. Autosomal recessive polycystic kidney disease in fetus is also a rare case with an incidence of 1: 20,000 live births resulting in a 30% death rate in neonates. In this case for the first time, we reported a placenta membranacea and autosomal recessive polycystic kidney disease occurred with together. A 25-year-old woman was admitted at 16 weeks of gestation for inducing abortion with autosomal recessive polycystic kidney disease in fetus diagnosed in routine sonography fellowship. Post-delivery examination revealed a placenta totally enveloped the fetus, oligohydramnious and bilateral enlarged polycystic kidneys of fetus. Histological study indicated umbilicus has only one artery and one vein as well as autosomal recessive polycystic kidney disease and directly attachment of chorionic villi to fetal membrane eventually diagnosed as complete placenta membranacea. The etiology of placenta membranacea is not completely clarified. As autosomal recessive polycystic kidney disease is a result of mutation in PKHD1 gene, so our finding may be initiates a new investigation about genetic relation between placenta membranacea and autosomal recessive polycystic kidney disease.
Sekanina, Zdenek
2015-01-01
We present the history of investigation of the dynamical properties of pairs and groups of genetically related long-period comets (other than the Kreutz sungrazing system). Members of a comet pair or group move in nearly identical orbits and their origin as fragments of a common parent comet is unquestionable. The only variable is the time of perihelion passage, which differs from member to member considerably due primarily to an orbital-momentum increment acquired during breakup. Meter-per-second separation velocities account for gaps of years or tens of years, thanks to the orbital periods of many millennia. The physical properties of individual members may not at all be alike, as illustrated by the trio of C/1988 A1, C/1996 Q1, and C/2015 F3. We exploit orbital similarity to examine whether the celebrated and as yet unidentified object, discovered from the Lick Observatory near the Sun at sunset on 1921 August 7, happened to be a member of such a pair and to track down the long-period comet to which it cou...
Roumane, Kahina; Ayadi, Abdelhakim
2017-04-01
The seismological catalogue for Algeria exhibits significant lack for the period before 1365. Some attempts led to retrieve ancient earthquakes evidenced by historical documents and achieves. Archaeoseismology allows a study of earthquakes that have affected archaeological sites, based on the analysis of damage observed on remains. We have focused on the Antiquity period that include Roman, Vandal and Byzantine period from B.C 146 to A.D. 533. This will contribute significantly to the understanding of seismic hazard of the Tell Atlas region known as an earthquake prone area. The Tell Atlas (Algeria) experienced during its history many disastrous earthquakes their impacts are graved on landscape and archaeological monuments. On Roman sites such, Lambaesis (Lambèse), Thamugadi (Timgad) Thibilis (Salaoua Announa) or Thevest (Tebessa), damage were observed on monuments and remains related to seismic events following strong shacking or other ground deformation (subsidence, landslide). Examples of observed damage and disorders on several Roman sites are presented as a contribution to Archaeoseismology in Algeria based on effects of earthquakes on ancient structures and monuments. Keywords : Archaeoseismology. Lambaesis. Drop columns. Aspecelium. Ancient earthquakes
Integration of Lightning- and Human-Caused Wildfire Occurrence Models
Vilar, Lara; Nieto Solana, Hector; Martín, M. Pilar
2010-01-01
Fire risk indices are useful tools for fire prevention actions by fire managers. A fire ignition is either the result of lightning or human activities. In European Mediterranean countries most forest fires are due to human activities. However, lightning is still an important fire ignition source...... in some regions. Integration of lightning and human fire occurrence probability into fire risk indices would be necessary to have a complete picture of the causal agents and their relative importance in fire occurrence. We present two methods for the integration of lightning and human fire occurrence...... probability models at 1 × 1 km grid cell resolution in two regions of Spain: Madrid, which presents a high fire incidence due to human activities; and Aragón, one of the most affected regions in Spain by lightning-fires. For validation, independent fire ignition points were used to compute the Receiver...
Scott, R.L.; Gallaher, R.B.
1977-08-01
The bibliography contains 100-word abstracts of reports to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission concerning operational events that occurred at pressurized-water reactor nuclear power plants in 1976. Included are 1264 abstracts that describe incidents, failures, and design construction deficiencies experienced at the facilities. They are arranged alphabetically by reactor name and then chronologically for each reactor. Key-word and permuted-title indexes are provided to facilitate location of the subjects of interest, and tables summarizing the information contained in the bibliography are presented. The information listed in the tables includes instrument failures, equipment failures, system failures, causes of failures, deficiencies noted, and the time of occurrence (i.e., during refueling, operation, testing, or construction). A few of the unique events that occurred during the year are reviewed in detail.
Scott, R.L.; Gallaher, R.B.
1977-08-02
This bibliography contains 100-word abstracts of reports to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission concerning operational events that occurred at boiling-water reactor nuclear power plants in 1976. The report includes 1,253 abstracts that describe incidents, failures, and design or construction deficiencies that were experienced at the facilities. They are arranged alphabetically by reactor name and then chronologically for each reactor. Key-word and permuted-title indexes are provided to facilitate location of the subjects of interest, and tables that summarize the information contained in the bibliography are provided. The information listed in the tables includes instrument failures, equipment failures, system failures, causes of failures, deficiencies noted, and the time of occurrence (i.e., during refueling, operation, testing, or construction). Three of the unique events that occurred during the year are reviewed in detail.
Scott, R.L.; Gallaher, R.B.
1976-07-01
The bibliography presented contains 100-word abstracts of reports to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission concerning operational events that occurred at pressurized-water reactor nuclear power plants in 1975. The report includes 1097 abstracts, arranged alphabetically by reactor name and then chronologically for each reactor, that describe incidents, failures, and design or construction deficiencies experienced at the facilities. Key-word and permuted-title indexes are provided to facilitate location of the subjects of interest, and tables summarizing the information contained in the bibliography are presented. The information listed in the tables includes instrument failures, equipment failures, system failures, causes of failures, deficiencies noted, and the time of occurrence (i.e., during refueling, operation, testing, or construction). A few of the unique events that occurred during the year are reviewed in detail.
Scott, R.L.; Gallaher, R.B.
1976-07-01
The bibliography presented contains 100-word abstracts of reports to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission concerning operational events that occurred at boiling-water reactor nuclear power plants in 1975. The report includes 1169 abstracts, arranged alphabetically by reactor name and then chronologically for each reactor, that describe incidents, failures, and design or construction deficiencies that were experienced at the facilities. Key-word and permuted-title indexes are provided to facilitate location of the subjects of interest, and tables that summarize the information contained in the bibliography are provided. The information listed in the tables includes instrument failures, equipment failures, system failures, causes of failures, deficiencies noted, and the time of occurrence (i.e., during refueling, operation, testing, or construction). Seven of the unique events that occurred during the year are reviewed in detail.
Hawkins, Nathan Ryan
The Blackland Prairie of Texas is one of the most heavily altered and threatened ecoregions in North America. A large part of the current threats to the ecoregion are related to rapid urban growth in cities within the Blackland Prairie. Major threats are related to conversion natural and semi-natural land to urban and suburban land, and increased resource demands from the growing urban population. To quantify these changes, I generated landcover maps using unsupervised classification techniques for the years 1984, 1993, 2004, and 2009 in a portion of the central Blackland Prairie centered around Navarro County, Texas and used post-classification comparison to determine the change in landcover. The largest changes in landcover occurred due to the creation of Richland Chambers Reservoir in 1987, and the subsequent flooding of mostly bottomland forest (a loss of 11,858.4ha of water from 1985-1993). This change occurred because of increased demand for water by the population of the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Study Area. Other changes that occurred in the study area included increases in cropland (26,590.14ha from 1985-2009), grass (25,368ha from 1985-2009), and developed (4,877.55ha from 1985-2009) landcover types. Increases in crop and grass landcover types suggest agricultural intensification occurring within the study area, while an increase in developed landcover indicates an increase in urbanization in a mostly rural county. Since changes in landcover have been demonstrated to affect wildlife in other areas, I used motion-sensing camera traps to survey the predator community in the area. I identified species occurring and developed occupancy models using variables that describe a number of landscape features that may be important to those species. Detections were dominated by a few common species, which included coyotes (psi4=0.7778 winter, psi=0.6667 summer), bobcats (psi=0.8889 winter, psi=0.7778 summer), raccoons (psi=1 winter, psi=0.9091 summer
Temporal Trends of NO2, CO and their Relation to the Fire Occurrences over the Indo-Gangetic Plain
Pandey, A. K.; Kumar, K.
2016-12-01
Air pollution is an environmental issue that has a gigantic impact on human health, and it is a major problem in the densely populated regions throughout the world. Situated in the foothills of the great Himalayas Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) is among one of the most densely populated regions of the earth. NO2 and CO are among major air pollutants which affect the air quality of IGP predominantly. In the present study, we studied the temporal trends of NO2, CO and fire count over the IGP region. Further, we investigated the role of the fire occurrences in the ambient NO2 and CO levels. We used MODIS instrument (Aqua satellite), OMI sensor and AIRS instrument data for fire count, Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) tropospheric column and Carbon monoxide (CO) column study respectively. The IGP is divided into three part geographically i.e. Eastern (E-IGP), Central (C-IGP) and Western (W-IGP). A higher columnar CO concentration is observed in the E-IGP whereas NO2 concentration is highest in the W-IGP. A higher NO2 concentration is obtained in winter followed by summer and a minimum in monsoon months throughout the IGP. Columnar CO concentration is higher in the E-IGP and its concentration is maximum in pre-monsoon months and minimum in the monsoon months. Fire pixel count is highest in the W-IGP with peak twice every year i.e. in the April - May and October - November corresponding to the harvest period in the Rabi-Kharif cropping system. We also obtained a significant positive correlation between fire occurrences and columnar NO2 & CO levels over the IGP which shows the biomass burning practices associated with the agriculture influences the NO2 and CO concentration in the atmosphere.
Jeong, Clara H.; Wagner, Elizabeth D.; Siebert, Vincent R.; Anduri, Sridevi; Richardson, Susan D.; Daiber, Eric J.; McKague, A. Bruce; Kogevinas, Manolis; Villanueva, Cristina M.; Goslan, Emma H.; Luo, Wentai; Isabelle, Lorne M.; Pankow, James F.; Grazuleviciene, Regina; Cordier, Sylvaine; Edwards, Susan C.; Righi, Elena; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J.; Plewa, Michael J.
2012-01-01
The HIWATE (Health Impacts of long-term exposure to disinfection byproducts in drinking WATEr) project was a systematic analysis that combined the epidemiology on adverse pregnancy outcomes and other health effects with long term exposure to low levels of drinking water disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in the European Union. The present study focused on the relationship of the occurrence and concentration of DBPs with in vitro mammalian cell toxicity. Eleven drinking water samples were collected from 5 European countries. Each sampling location corresponded with an epidemiological study for the HIWATE program. Over 90 DBPs were identified; the range in the number of DBPs and their levels reflected the diverse collection sites, different disinfection processes, and the different characteristics of the source waters. For each sampling site, chronic mammalian cell cytotoxicity correlated highly with the numbers of DBPs identified and the levels of DBP chemical classes. Although there was a clear difference in the genotoxic responses among the drinking waters, these data did not correlate as well with the chemical analyses. Thus, the agents responsible for the genomic DNA damage observed in the HIWATE samples may be due to unresolved associations of combinations of identified DBPs, unknown emerging DBPs that were not identified, or other toxic water contaminants. This study represents the first to integrate quantitative in vitro toxicological data with analytical chemistry and human epidemiologic outcomes for drinking water DBPs. PMID:22958121
Choice probability generating functions
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2010-01-01
This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications...
Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming
Saad, Emad
2013-01-01
Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...
Otsuka, Ryota; Kano, Masayuki; Hayashi, Hideki; Hanari, Naoyuki; Gunji, Hisashi; Hayano, Koichi; Matsubara, Hisahiro
2016-12-01
A 44-year-old man consulted an internist because of abnormalities in an upper gastrointestinal series. It showed an elevated lesion with central depression in the greater curvature of the middle part of the stomach. Upper gastrointestinal endoscopy showed an elevated lesion with central depression, bridging hold, and no abnormalities of the gastric mucosa in the greater curvature of the middle part of the stomach. Endoscopic ultrasonography showed a submucosal tumor derived from the muscle layer of the stomach. Computed tomography showed a 22-mm tumor in the upper part of the stomach. Integrated position emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) showed an intense tracer uptake by the tumor. Based on these findings, a gastrointestinal stromal tumor was suspected and laparoscopic endoscopic cooperative surgery was performed. A histopathological examination showed lymphoplasmacytic infiltration and fibrosis, and an immunohistochemical analysis showed the infiltration of IgG4-positive lymphoplasmacytic cells. The probable diagnosis was IgG4-related sclerosing disease of the stomach. We herein describe a rare case of probable IgG4-related sclerosing disease which presented as a gastric submucosal tumor. PET/CT is a useful imaging technique for the diagnosis and follow-up of this disease.
Clincial analysis about the relative factors of ectopic pregnancy occurrence%异位妊娠发病相关因素的临床分析
叶凤霞
2009-01-01
Objective To analyze the relative factors of ectopic pregnancy occurrence to provide scientitfic evidence for the procreation health care work. Methods 240 cases of ectopic pregnancy were diagnosed in our hospital from December 2005 to December 2008. The mean age was 26 years with a range of 18～42 years. The position, occurrence rate, relative factors, and treatment of ectopic pregnancy were analyzed. Results The rate of ectopic pregnancy in the ampullae of oviduct was marked higher than that in the other part of oviduct (P0.05). Condusion The increased ectopic pregnancy occurrence was obviously related with pelvic inflammatory disease, abortion, IUD, and pathological change'in oviduct. Pelvic inflammatory disease, abortion his-tory and ectopic pregnancy history were the important factors.%目的 通过对异位妊娠发病的相关因素进行分析探讨,为生育健康保健工作提供科学依据.方法 2005年12月～2008年12月来我院就诊,经过相关检查确诊为畀位妊娠患者240例.对其发病部位、发生率、发病的相关因素、治疗方法等进行临床分析.结果 壶腹部妊娠较其他部位输卵管妊娠比例明显增高,P0.05.结论 异位妊娠发病率的增加与盆腔炎、流产、IUD、输卵管病理改变有明显的相关性,盆腔炎、流产史及异位妊娠史是重要因素.
Zurek, W H
2004-01-01
I show how probabilities arise in quantum physics by exploring implications of {\\it environment - assisted invariance} or {\\it envariance}, a recently discovered symmetry exhibited by entangled quantum systems. Envariance of perfectly entangled states can be used to rigorously justify complete ignorance of the observer about the outcome of any measurement on either of the members of the entangled pair. Envariance leads to Born's rule, $p_k \\propto |\\psi_k|^2$. Probabilities derived in this manner are an objective reflection of the underlying state of the system -- they reflect experimentally verifiable symmetries, and not just a subjective ``state of knowledge'' of the observer. Envariance - based approach is compared with and found superior to the key pre-quantum definitions of probability including the {\\it standard definition} based on the `principle of indifference' due to Laplace, and the {\\it relative frequency approach} advocated by von Mises. Implications of envariance for the interpretation of quantu...
Q. Adnan
2007-11-01
Full Text Available There were noted two times (May and November 2004, fish mass mortality occurred in the coast of the Jakarta Bay, killing several species of small and big fishes, crustaceans, eels and molluscs. Phytoplankton blooms in the Jakarta Bay is accelerated by the high input of nutrients, which caused eutropication of the Bay water. Analysis of water sample showed in st 1 (Marina coast showed that phytoplankton abundance was of 2.9 x 106 cells/l-1 , the common diatom species recorded at that time were: Skeletonema costatum, Thalassiosira mala, Bacteriastrum varians, Chaetoceros pseudocurvisetus, Nitzschia sigma, Coscinodiscus radiatus. Of the which: Skeletonema costatum 1.8 x106 cells/l-1 ; in st. 3 Binaria lake was the most a common diatoms species found in the Jakarta Bay. This species frequently bloom, especially after rainfall, causing no harm to marine life, the second diatoms Thalassiosira mala 2.8 x 106 cells/l-1 (st 4 Carnaval coast, during this decade in more often frequencies. The second largest group was represented by four dinoflagellates species: Prorocentrum micans, Protoperidinium sp., Ceratium furca and Gonyaulax sp., and one species dominated of dinoflagellate Prorocentrum micans 2.3 x 106 cells/l-1 (in the Dadap coast. P. micans is also common species of the Jakarta Bay. Hydrological conditions in May and November 2004 are, temperature 32-33 oC, pH 7.76 to 7. 92, Salinity 32‰, Dissolved oxygen 3.88 to 4.26 mg/l, Phosphate 0.10-0.40 ?g-at-P l-1 , Nitrate 0.01 to 0.03 ?g-at-N l-1 . The result suggests that phytoplankton distributes in wider areas than expected and monitoring of its occurrence in Indonesian waters is necessary to prevent harmful effects of such bloom.
Clemente, S.; Rodríguez, A.; Brito, A.; Ramos, A.; Monterroso, Ó.; Hernández, J. C.
2011-03-01
The occurrence of a hydrocoral of the genus Millepora has been recorded for the first time in the eastern subtropical Atlantic (Tenerife, Canary Islands), at a latitude of 11º N of its previously known northernmost limit of distribution in the Cape Verde Islands. The moderate development of the colonies, their fast growth rate and very restricted location indicate a recent colonization process, possibly related to an extreme climatic event that took place in the summer of 2004, adding to the rising seawater temperatures in the region during recent years.
Ritsner, M S; Karas', S I; Sherina, O L; Boiarintseva, I G; Gutkevich, E V
1989-04-01
The program of genetic-epidemiological study of schizophrenia in five districts of the Tomsk region is presented. According to standardized methods, 610 diagnosed patients (epidemiological register) were examined, 74.1% of them being at random registered as probands (452 families of the epidemiological sample). 229 probands of non-epidemiological sample were registered in psychiatric hospitals. Schizophrenia occurrence parameters among first-degree relatives of probands of the non-epidemiological sample were regularly overestimated, as compared to the epidemiological sample. The methodical sources of contradictions in clinico-genealogical studies are discussed; the conclusion about representativeness+ of the probands' epidemiological sample is made.
Marco CAMARDO LEGGIERI
2015-09-01
Full Text Available The occurrence of mycotoxins associated with Fusarium spp. and Aspergillus flavus in Northern Italy, and the role of cropping systems, were investigated on 140 field samples collected over the years 2009–2011. Samples were analysed for fumonisins B1 and B2 (FBs, aflatoxins B1, B2, G1 and G2 (AFs, deoxynivalenol (DON and zearalenone (ZEN using validated analytical methods. Information on: maize hybrid, preceding crop, tillage applied, mineral nutrition, pest and disease control, severity of European Corn Borer (ECB attack, sowing and harvesting dates, kernel moisture at harvesting and longitude of the sampled province, were also collected. During this period there were distinct differences in FBs and AFs concentrations between years and geographic origins, and very low contamination with DON and ZEN was always found. The incidence of AFs exceeded 75% across all samples, and was almost 100% for FBs. The meteorological trends were quite different in the 3 years surveyed. 2009 was the coldest in June and the warmest in August, 2010 the most humid, and in 2011 cold weather occurred during flowering and dry conditions during ripening. The run of a logistic equation with the backward stepwise approach selected three parameters, (seeding week, ECB severity and longitude of sampling province to predict AFB1 contamination and four parameters (year, sowing week, ECB severity and longitude of sampling province to predict FB contamination. The internal validation gave good results, with 76% correct predictions. The probability of harvesting maize with more than 5 µg kg-1 of AFB1 varied between 86 and 5%, and the probability of harvesting maize with more than 4,000 µg kg-1 of FBs varied between 81 and 2%, respectively, for conducive and non-conducive environments. Therefore, considerable variability was found even if a limited area and only 3 years were considered.
Gardner, Dale R; Cook, Daniel
2016-08-10
There are limited data concerning the occurrence of swainsonine N-oxide in plants known to contain swainsonine and its relative impact on toxicity of the plant material. A liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry method based on a solvent partitioning extraction procedure followed by trimethylsilylation and analysis using reversed phase high-pressure liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry was developed for the analysis of swainsonine and its N-oxide. The concentrations of each were measured in several swainsonine-containing taxa as well as two endophytic isolates that produce swainsonine. In vegetative samples the relative percent of N-oxide to free base ranged from 0.9 to 18%. In seed samples the N-oxide to free base ratio ranged from 0 to 10%. The measured concentrations of swainsonine N-oxide relative to swainsonine only slightly increases the actual toxicity of the various plant samples in a combined assay of both compounds.
Pattnaik, S
2014-01-01
We obtain here a new relation for the reduced electric quadrupole transition probability B(E2) of a given nucleus in terms of its derivatives with respect to neutron and proton numbers based on a similar local energy relation in the Infinite Nuclear Matter (INM) model of Atomic Nuclei, which is essentially built on the foundation of the Hugenholtz-Van Hove Theorem of many-body theory. Obviously such a relation in the form of a differential equation is expected to be more powerful than the usual algebraic difference equations. Although the relation for B(E2) has been perceived simply on the basis of a corresponding differential equation for the local energy in the INM model, its theoretical foundation otherwise has been clearly demonstrated. We further exploit the differential equation in using the very definitions of the derivatives to obtain two different recursion relations for B(E2) , connecting in each case three neighboring even-even nuclei from lower to higher mass numbers and vice-verse. We demonstrate...
Schalk, Enrico; Hanus, Lynn; Färber, Jacqueline; Fischer, Thomas; Heidel, Florian H
2015-09-01
The aim of this study was to predict the probability of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs) in patients with haematologic malignancies using a modified version of the Infection Probability Score (mIPS). In order to perform a prospective, mono-centric surveillance of complications in clinical routine due to short-term central venous catheters (CVCs) in consecutive patients receiving chemotherapy from March 2013 to September 2014, IPS was calculated at CVC insertion and removal (mIPSin and mIPSex, respectively). We used the 2012 Infectious Diseases Working Party of the German Society of Haematology and Medical Oncology (AGIHO/DGHO) criteria to define CRBSI. In total, 143 patients (mean 59.5 years, 61.4 % male) with 267 triple-lumen CVCs (4044 CVC days; mean 15.1 days, range 1-60 days) were analysed. CVCs were inserted for therapy of acute leukaemia (53.2 %), multiple myeloma (24.3 %) or lymphoma (11.2 %), and 93.6 % were inserted in the jugular vein. A total of 66 CRBSI cases (24.7 %) were documented (12 definite/13 probable/41 possible). The incidence was 16.3/1000 CVC days (2.9/3.1/10.1 per 1000 CVC days for definite/probable/possible CRBSI, respectively). In CRBSI cases, the mIPSex was higher as compared to cases without CRBSI (13.1 vs. 7.1; p < 0.001). The best mIPSex cutoff for CRBSI prediction was 8 points (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.77; sensitivity = 84.9 %, specificity = 60.7 %, negative predictive value = 92.4 %). For patients with an mIPSex ≥8, the risk for a CRBSI was high (odds ratio [OR] = 5.9; p < 0.001) and even increased if, additionally, CVC had been in use for about 10 days (OR = 9.8; p < 0.001). In case other causes of infection are excluded, a mIPSex ≥8 and duration of CVC use of about 10 days predict a very high risk of CRBSI. Patients with a mIPSex <8 have a low risk of CRBSI of 8 %.
Vilberg, Kaia L; Rugg, Michael D
2009-04-01
The present event-related fMRI study addressed the question whether retrieval-related neural activity in lateral parietal cortex is affected by the relative probability of test items. We varied the proportion of old to new items across two test blocks, with 25% of the items being old in one block and 75% being old in the other. Prior to each block, participants (N=18) completed one of two types of study judgment on each of 108 object images. They then performed a source memory test with four response options: studied in task 1, studied in task 2, old but unsure of the study task, and new. Retrieval-related activity in regions previously identified as recollection-sensitive, including the left inferior lateral parietal cortex and bilateral medial temporal cortex, was unaffected by old/new ratio. Generic retrieval success effects--retrieval-related effects common to recognized items attracting either a correct or an incorrect source judgment--were identified in several regions of left superior parietal cortex. These effects dissociated between a middle region of the intraparietal sulcus (IPS), where activity did not interact with ratio, and regions anterior and posterior to the middle IPS where activity was sensitive to old/new ratio. The findings are inconsistent with prior proposals that retrieval-related activity in and around the left middle IPS reflects the relative salience of old and new test items. Rather, they suggest that, as in the case of more inferior left parietal regions, retrieval-related activity in this region reflects processes directly linked to retrieval.
Souza, Marcelo Cruzick de; Momesso, Denise P.; Vieira Neto, Leonardo; Vaisman, Mario, E-mail: dmomesso@terra.com.br [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ, (Brazil). Servico de Endocrinologia; Vaisman, Fernanda; Corbo, Rossana [Instituto Nacional do Cancer (INCA), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Servico de Endocrinologia; Martins, Rosangela Aparecida Gomes [Hospital Universitario Clementino Fraga Filho (HUCFF), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Divisao de Pesquisa
2016-02-15
Objective: Much controversy relates to the risk of non-synchronous second primary malignancies (NSSPM) after radioactive iodine treatment (RAI-131) in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients. This study evaluated the relationship between RAI-131 and NSSPM in DTC survivors with long-term follow-up. Materials and methods: Retrospective analysis of 413 DTC cases was performed; 252 received RAI-131 and 161 were treated with thyroidectomy alone. Exclusion criteria were: prior or synchronous non-thyroidal malignancies (within the first year), familial syndromes associated to multiple neoplasms, ionizing radiation exposure or second tumors with unknown histopathology. Results: During a mean follow-up of 11.0 ± 7.5 years, 17 (4.1%) patients developed solid NSSPM. Patients with NSSPM were older than those without (p = 0.02). RAI-131 and I-131 cumulative activity were similar in patients with and without NSSPM (p = 0.18 and p = 0.78, respectively). Incidence of NSSPM was 5.2% in patients with RAI-131 treatment and 2.5% in those without RAI-131 (p = 0.18). Using multivariate analysis, RAI-131 was not significantly associated with NSSPM occurrence (p = 0.35); age was the only independent predictor (p = 0.04). Under log rank statistical analysis, after 10 years of follow-up, it was observed a tendency of lower NSSPM-free survival among patients that received RAI-131 treatment (0.96 vs. 0.87; p = 0.06), what was not affected by age at DTC diagnosis. Conclusion: In our cohort of DTC survivors, with a long-term follow-up period, RAI-131 treatment and I-131 cumulative dose were not significantly associated with NSSPM occurrence. A tendency of premature NSSPM occurrence among patients treated with RAI-131 was observed, suggesting an anticipating oncogenic effect by interaction with other risk factors. (author)
Grell, Kathrine; Diggle, Peter J; Frederiksen, Kirsten
2015-01-01
We study methods for how to include the spatial distribution of tumours when investigating the relation between brain tumours and the exposure from radio frequency electromagnetic fields caused by mobile phone use. Our suggested point process model is adapted from studies investigating spatial...
Soon Young Ahn
2013-03-01
Full Text Available Theobroxide, a novel compound isolated from a fungus Lasiodiplodia theobromae, stimulates potato tuber formation and induces flowering of morning glory by initiating the jasmonic acid synthesis pathway. To elucidate the effect of theobroxide on pathogen resistance in plants, Nicotiana benthamiana plants treated with theobroxide were immediately infiltrated with Pseudomonas syringae pv. tabaci. Exogenous application of theobroxide inhibited development of lesion symptoms, and growth of the bacterial cells was significantly retarded. Semi-quantitative RT-PCRs using the primers of 18 defense-related genes were performed to investigate the molecular mechanisms of resistance. Among the genes, the theobroxide treatment increased the expression of pathogenesis-related protein 1a (PR1a, pathogenesis-related protein 1b (PR1b, glutathione S-transferase (GST, allen oxide cyclase (AOC, and lipoxyganase (LOX. All these data strongly indicate that theobroxide treatment inhibits disease development by faster induction of defense responses, which can be possible by the induction of defense-related genes including PR1a, PR1b, and GST triggered by the elevated jasmonic acid.
Cattaneo, Dario; Orlando, Giovanna; Cozzi, Valeria; Cordier, Laura; Baldelli, Sara; Merli, Stefania; Fucile, Serena; Gulisano, Cecilia; Rizzardini, Giuliano; Clementi, Emilio
2013-06-01
Retrospective studies have documented a significant association between linezolid (LNZ) plasma concentrations and drug-related haematological toxicity. However, the safe upper threshold level for LNZ plasma trough concentrations (Cmin values) has not been defined with certainty. A prospective observational study was performed aimed at comparing LNZ Cmin values in patients developing drug-related side effects with those measured in patients not experiencing LNZ toxicity. LNZ Cmin values were measured from the first week after starting therapy and were repeated periodically up to the end of treatment. Fifty patients, for a total of 210 LNZ Cmin evaluations, were considered. All patients (n=9) who developed drug-related haematological toxicity also had significantly higher plasma LNZ Cmin values during the first week of therapy (9.0±6.4 mg/L vs. 4.9±3.7 mg/L; P<0.01) and thereafter (9.3±5.4 mg/L vs. 4.4±3.4 mg/L; P<0.01). The significant association between LNZ plasma concentrations and haematological toxicity was also confirmed by multivariate logistic regression analysis including age, serum creatinine and concomitant medications as independent variables. A causal relationship between LNZ concentrations and the risk of developing drug-related haematological toxicity was observed. Accordingly, application of therapeutic drug monitoring may improve the safety outcome of patients receiving LNZ therapy.
Caldeira, Kimberly M; Arria, Amelia M; O'Grady, Kevin E; Vincent, Kathryn B; Wish, Eric D
2008-03-01
This study reports the prevalence of cannabis use disorders (CUD) and other cannabis-related problems in a large cohort (n=1253) of first-year college students, 17 to 20 years old, at one large public university in the mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. Interviewers assessed past-year cannabis use, other drug use, and cannabis-related problems (including DSM-IV criteria for CUD). The prevalence of CUD was 9.4%(wt) among all first-year students and 24.6% among past-year cannabis users (n=739). Of those endorsing any CUD criteria, 33.8% could be classified as diagnostic orphans. Among 474 "at-risk" cannabis users (>or= 5 times in the past year), concentration problems (40.1%), driving while high (18.6%) and missing class (13.9%) were among the most prevalent cannabis-related problems, even among those who endorsed no CUD criteria. Placing oneself at risk for physical injury was also commonly reported (24.3%). A significant proportion of cannabis-using college students meet diagnostic criteria for disorder. Even in the absence of disorder, users appear to be at risk for potentially serious cannabis-related problems. Implications for prevention, service delivery, and future research are discussed.
Human and biophysical influences on fire occurrence in the United States
Hawbaker, Todd J.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hammer, Roger B.; Keuler, Nicholas S.; Clayton, Murray K.
2013-01-01
National-scale analyses of fire occurrence are needed to prioritize fire policy and management activities across the United States. However, the drivers of national-scale patterns of fire occurrence are not well understood, and how the relative importance of human or biophysical factors varies across the country is unclear. Our research goal was to model the drivers of fire occurrence within ecoregions across the conterminous United States. We used generalized linear models to compare the relative influence of human, vegetation, climate, and topographic variables on fire occurrence in the United States, as measured by MODIS active fire detections collected between 2000 and 2006. We constructed models for all fires and for large fires only and generated predictive maps to quantify fire occurrence probabilities. Areas with high fire occurrence probabilities were widespread in the Southeast, and localized in the Mountain West, particularly in southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico. Probabilities for large-fire occurrence were generally lower, but hot spots existed in the western and south-central United States The probability of fire occurrence is a critical component of fire risk assessments, in addition to vegetation type, fire behavior, and the values at risk. Many of the hot spots we identified have extensive development in the wildland–urban interface and are near large metropolitan areas. Our results demonstrated that human variables were important predictors of both all fires and large fires and frequently exhibited nonlinear relationships. However, vegetation, climate, and topography were also significant variables in most ecoregions. If recent housing growth trends and fire occurrence patterns continue, these areas will continue to challenge policies and management efforts seeking to balance the risks generated by wildfires with the ecological benefits of fire.
Grell, Kathrine; Diggle, Peter J; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Schüz, Joachim; Cardis, Elisabeth; Andersen, Per K
2015-10-15
We study methods for how to include the spatial distribution of tumours when investigating the relation between brain tumours and the exposure from radio frequency electromagnetic fields caused by mobile phone use. Our suggested point process model is adapted from studies investigating spatial aggregation of a disease around a source of potential hazard in environmental epidemiology, where now the source is the preferred ear of each phone user. In this context, the spatial distribution is a distribution over a sample of patients rather than over multiple disease cases within one geographical area. We show how the distance relation between tumour and phone can be modelled nonparametrically and, with various parametric functions, how covariates can be included in the model and how to test for the effect of distance. To illustrate the models, we apply them to a subset of the data from the Interphone Study, a large multinational case-control study on the association between brain tumours and mobile phone use.
Maintenance of sex-related genes and the co-occurrence of both mating types in Verticillium dahliae.
Dylan P G Short
Full Text Available Verticillium dahliae is a cosmopolitan, soilborne fungus that causes a significant wilt disease on a wide variety of plant hosts including economically important crops, ornamentals, and timber species. Clonal expansion through asexual reproduction plays a vital role in recurring plant epidemics caused by this pathogen. The recent discovery of recombination between clonal lineages and preliminary investigations of the meiotic gene inventory of V. dahliae suggest that cryptic sex appears to be rare in this species. Here we expanded on previous findings on the sexual nature of V. dahliae. Only 1% of isolates in a global collection of 1120 phytopathogenic V. dahliae isolates contained the MAT1-1 idiomorph, whereas 99% contained MAT1-2. Nine unique multilocus microsatellite types comprised isolates of both mating types, eight of which were collected from the same substrate at the same time. Orthologs of 88 previously characterized sex-related genes from fungal model systems in the Ascoymycota were identified in the genome of V. dahliae, out of 93 genes investigated. Results of RT-PCR experiments using both mating types revealed that 10 arbitrarily chosen sex-related genes, including MAT1-1-1 and MAT1-2-1, were constitutively expressed in V. dahliae cultures grown under laboratory conditions. Ratios of non-synonymous (amino-acid altering to synonymous (silent substitutions in V. dahliae MAT1-1-1 and MAT1-2-1 sequences were indistinguishable from the ratios observed in the MAT genes of sexual fungi in the Pezizomycotina. Patterns consistent with strong purifying selection were also observed in 18 other arbitrarily chosen V. dahliae sex-related genes, relative to the patterns in orthologs from fungi with known sexual stages. This study builds upon recent findings from other laboratories and mounts further evidence for an ancestral or cryptic sexual stage in V. dahliae.
A hierarchical community occurrence model for North Carolina stream fish
Midway, S.R.; Wagner, Tyler; Tracy, B.H.
2016-01-01
The southeastern USA is home to one of the richest—and most imperiled and threatened—freshwater fish assemblages in North America. For many of these rare and threatened species, conservation efforts are often limited by a lack of data. Drawing on a unique and extensive data set spanning over 20 years, we modeled occurrence probabilities of 126 stream fish species sampled throughout North Carolina, many of which occur more broadly in the southeastern USA. Specifically, we developed species-specific occurrence probabilities from hierarchical Bayesian multispecies models that were based on common land use and land cover covariates. We also used index of biotic integrity tolerance classifications as a second level in the model hierarchy; we identify this level as informative for our work, but it is flexible for future model applications. Based on the partial-pooling property of the models, we were able to generate occurrence probabilities for many imperiled and data-poor species in addition to highlighting a considerable amount of occurrence heterogeneity that supports species-specific investigations whenever possible. Our results provide critical species-level information on many threatened and imperiled species as well as information that may assist with re-evaluation of existing management strategies, such as the use of surrogate species. Finally, we highlight the use of a relatively simple hierarchical model that can easily be generalized for similar situations in which conventional models fail to provide reliable estimates for data-poor groups.
Wallengren, J; Möller, H; Ekman, R
1987-01-01
Substance P (SP), calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP), and vasoactive intestinal peptide (VIP) were assayed in lesions and normal skin of patients with dermographism and cold urticaria utilizing suction-induced blisters. There was no difference in SP and VIP concentrations between challenged and control skin of urticaria patients. On the whole, however, the concentration of both neuropeptides, and VIP in particular, was higher in the urticaria patients than in control subjects. CGRP levels were not increased. SP and VIP in blood samples from veins draining challenged skin areas were below the detection limit. It is concluded that SP and VIP may potentiate histamine in wheal formation and thus contribute to the increased reactivity of the skin to trauma and temperature changes in patients with physical urticaria.
Rudrashish Haldar
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Transfusion associated circulatory overload (TACO and transfusion related acute lung injury (TRALI are two dissimilar pathological conditions associated with transfusion of blood products where the time course of the events and clinical presentation overlap leading to uncertainty in establishing the diagnosis and initiating the treatment, which otherwise differs. We encountered a case where a patient of post-partum hemorrhage developed TACO in the immediate post-operative period due to aggressive resuscitative attempts with blood products. The patient′s condition was appropriately diagnosed and was managed according to the clinical scenario, and the condition abated. Subsequently, on the third post-operative day the patient again required blood product transfusions following which the patient developed TRALI, the diagnosis of which was also established and adequate treatment strategy was undertaken.
Sato, N.; Kuroda, K.; Suzuki, M.; Ogawa, A. [Iwate Medical University, School of Medicine, Morioka, Iwate (Japan); Sera, K.
1998-07-01
Cerebral vasospasm is a characteristic complication after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), and the onset of vasospasm is a very important factor to decide the patient's outcome. Though various casual factors have been proposed for cerebral vasospasm after SAH, none of them explain the whole pathomechanism of vasospasm. To evaluate the role of trace elements in vasospasm, we have examined the sequential change in element concentration in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) after SAH by PIXE, and have investigated the relation between trace elements and vasospasm. We obtained the CSF samples from cisternal drainage of 17 patients with SAH who underwent radical surgery within 48 hours from the onset. The drainage was placed into basal cisterns at the end of the operation. Three sampling times (3-5, 7-9 and 12-14 days from the onset) were scheduled, because vasospasm is likely to occur from day 4 through day 14 after the onset. Cerebral angiograms were performed to classify vasospasm on day 1 and 7 after the onset. We measured 29 elements in the CSF and focused on Ca and Mg levels in this study, since Ca-influx into the smooth muscle cells is a principal mechanism of muscle contraction, and the competition between Ca and Mg is closely related to the muscle contraction. We found a significantly lower levels of Mg in the CSF of patients with vasospasm on days 7-9 after the onset. These results suggest that Mg in the CSF possibly ameliorate vasoconstriction due to Ca in the pathomechanism of vasospasm. (author)
Takeuchi, Tomoka; Fukuda, Kazuhiko; Sasaki, Yuka; Inugami, Maki; Murphy, Timothy I
2002-02-01
To further investigate mechanisms of isolated sleep paralysis (ISP) in normal individuals, we experimentally elicited ISPs by facilitating sleep onset REM periods (SOREMP), a prerequisite of ISPs, and examined behavioral and psychological measurements relating to ISP appearances. The multi-phasic sleep/wake schedule (MPS) began at approximately midnight and ended when net sleep reached 7.5 hours. Participants were awakened after every 5 min of REM sleep to obtain a maximum number of SOREMPs. Upon each awakening, mentation reports and subjective measurements were collected. Performance tests were then assigned. Sleep lab, Tokyo Metropolitan Institute for Neurosciences, Japan. Thirteen healthy Japanese students (10 males) with high self-reported frequencies of ISPs but no other narcolepsy-related symptoms. From 184 sleep interruptions, 8 ISP episodes were obtained. In within participant comparisons between episodes with and without ISPs, the vigilance task (VT) reaction times were elevated before SOREMPs with ISPs. In between analyses (ISP vs non-ISP), the ISP group showed poorer performance, more complaints of physical, mental, and neurotic symptoms, increased subjective fatigue and increased stage 1 throughout the entire schedule. VT hit rates remained constant in the non-ISP group, but dropped in the later part of schedule in the ISP group. Subjective sleepiness dropped over time in the non-ISP group while it slightly increased in the ISP group. ISP is likely to appear as a phenotype of REM dissociation during SOREMP when participants with low tolerance for disrupted sleep-wake rhythms are placed in this type of schedule.
Briggs, William M.
2012-01-01
The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.
Probability workshop to be better in probability topic
Asmat, Aszila; Ujang, Suriyati; Wahid, Sharifah Norhuda Syed
2015-02-01
The purpose of the present study was to examine whether statistics anxiety and attitudes towards probability topic among students in higher education level have an effect on their performance. 62 fourth semester science students were given statistics anxiety questionnaires about their perception towards probability topic. Result indicated that students' performance in probability topic is not related to anxiety level, which means that the higher level in statistics anxiety will not cause lower score in probability topic performance. The study also revealed that motivated students gained from probability workshop ensure that their performance in probability topic shows a positive improvement compared before the workshop. In addition there exists a significance difference in students' performance between genders with better achievement among female students compared to male students. Thus, more initiatives in learning programs with different teaching approaches is needed to provide useful information in improving student learning outcome in higher learning institution.
Malú Hernández-Díaz
2012-09-01
Full Text Available Los huracanes son disturbios comunes en el Caribe, pero se desconocen sus efectos sobre los carnívoros. El objetivo de este estudio fue evaluar la presencia y la abundancia relativa de los carnívoros respecto al daño en la vegetación debido al paso del huracán Dean (2007 en la península de Yucatán, 18 meses después del evento. Mediante fototrampeo, se muestrearon 4 sitios afectados en diferentes intensidades por el huracán. Se exploraron las respuestas de los carnívoros a 4 escalas espaciales. Los daños a la vegetación se estimaron mediante imágenes de satélite MODIS como la diferencia en el índice de Vegetación Mejorado (dEVI antes y después de que el huracán tocara tierra. En la mayoría de las escalas, la relación entre presencia y abundancia relativa de los carnívoros y el daño a la vegetación fue poco o nada significativa, probablemente debido a su poca especificidad de hábitat. Sin embargo, la aparente resistencia de estas especies al paso de un huracán debe confirmarse con un mayor esfuerzo de muestreo y un enfoque temporal.Hurricanes are common disturbances in the Caribbean, but their effect on carnivores is unknown. The objective of this study was to evaluate the occurrence and relative abundance of carnivores in relation with vegetation damage 18 months after Hurricane Dean (2007 hit the Yucatan Peninsula. Using camera-trapping, 4 sites showing different intensities of hurricane damage were sampled. The response of carnivores was explored at 4 spatial scales. Vegetation damage was estimated as the difference in the Enhanced Vegetation Index (dEVI before and after the hurricane using MODIS satellite images. At most resolutions, carnivores' occurrence and relative abundance were weakly or not related with vegetation damage, probably due to their little habitat specificity. Nevertheless, the apparent resistance of the studied species should be confirmed using a larger sampling effort and temporal framework.
Paradoxes in probability theory
Eckhardt, William
2013-01-01
Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory. Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies. Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.
Superpositions of probability distributions
Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen
2008-09-01
Probability distributions which can be obtained from superpositions of Gaussian distributions of different variances v=σ2 play a favored role in quantum theory and financial markets. Such superpositions need not necessarily obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov semigroup relation for Markovian processes because they may introduce memory effects. We derive the general form of the smearing distributions in v which do not destroy the semigroup property. The smearing technique has two immediate applications. It permits simplifying the system of Kramers-Moyal equations for smeared and unsmeared conditional probabilities, and can be conveniently implemented in the path integral calculus. In many cases, the superposition of path integrals can be evaluated much easier than the initial path integral. Three simple examples are presented, and it is shown how the technique is extended to quantum mechanics.
Superpositions of probability distributions.
Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen
2008-09-01
Probability distributions which can be obtained from superpositions of Gaussian distributions of different variances v=sigma;{2} play a favored role in quantum theory and financial markets. Such superpositions need not necessarily obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov semigroup relation for Markovian processes because they may introduce memory effects. We derive the general form of the smearing distributions in v which do not destroy the semigroup property. The smearing technique has two immediate applications. It permits simplifying the system of Kramers-Moyal equations for smeared and unsmeared conditional probabilities, and can be conveniently implemented in the path integral calculus. In many cases, the superposition of path integrals can be evaluated much easier than the initial path integral. Three simple examples are presented, and it is shown how the technique is extended to quantum mechanics.
Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph
2008-06-01
We explore six classes of fractal probability laws defined on the positive half-line: Weibull, Frechét, Lévy, hyper Pareto, hyper beta, and hyper shot noise. Each of these classes admits a unique statistical power-law structure, and is uniquely associated with a certain operation of renormalization. All six classes turn out to be one-dimensional projections of underlying Poisson processes which, in turn, are the unique fixed points of Poissonian renormalizations. The first three classes correspond to linear Poissonian renormalizations and are intimately related to extreme value theory (Weibull, Frechét) and to the central limit theorem (Lévy). The other three classes correspond to nonlinear Poissonian renormalizations. Pareto's law--commonly perceived as the "universal fractal probability distribution"--is merely a special case of the hyper Pareto class.
Measurement uncertainty and probability
Willink, Robin
2013-01-01
A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.
Schröder, Christiane; Bleidorn, Christoph; Hartmann, Stefanie; Tiedemann, Ralph
2009-12-15
Investigating the dog genome we found 178965 introns with a moderate length of 200-1000 bp. A screening of these sequences against 23 different repeat libraries to find insertions of short interspersed elements (SINEs) detected 45276 SINEs. Virtually all of these SINEs (98%) belong to the tRNA-derived Can-SINE family. Can-SINEs arose about 55 million years ago before Carnivora split into two basal groups, the Caniformia (dog-like carnivores) and the Feliformia (cat-like carnivores). Genome comparisons of dog and cat recovered 506 putatively informative SINE loci for caniformian phylogeny. In this study we show how to use such genome information of model organisms to research the phylogeny of related non-model species of interest. Investigating a dataset including representatives of all major caniformian lineages, we analysed 24 randomly chosen loci for 22 taxa. All loci were amplifiable and revealed 17 parsimony-informative SINE insertions. The screening for informative SINE insertions yields a large amount of sequence information, in particular of introns, which contain reliable phylogenetic information as well. A phylogenetic analysis of intron- and SINE sequence data provided a statistically robust phylogeny which is congruent with the absence/presence pattern of our SINE markers. This phylogeny strongly supports a sistergroup relationship of Musteloidea and Pinnipedia. Within Pinnipedia, we see strong support from bootstrapping and the presence of a SINE insertion for a sistergroup relationship of the walrus with the Otariidae.
Mounir Ben brahim; Morsi Feki; Abderahmene Bouain
2015-01-01
Objective: To study the seasonal and monthly variability of the toxic dinoflagellate Ostreopsis ovata (O. ovata) in relation to environmental parameters in Kerkennah Island. Methods: Three water samples replicate of one-litter were taken daily for ten consecutive days on 12 months. All sampling water was kept in the dark at ambient temperature until their microscopic observation. Environmental variables such as salinity and temperature were measured in the field concomitantly as phytoplankton sampling. Nutrients (ammonium, nitrite, nitrate, phosphate and silicate) were analysed in laboratory with Auto-analyser Luebbe type. Cell identification and enumeration in water samples were performed with an inverted microscope after the sedimentation. Results: The highest abundance of O. ovata was recorded in summer. Analysis of variance showed significant difference of abundance between seasons, whereas no significant difference for month was detected. Factorial analysis ordination showed a positive correlation of Ostreopsis mainly with temperature and low correlation with nitrite and nitrate whereas the second axis (with 26.30% of variance) showed that Ostreopsis was correlated with temperature and salinity. Conclusions: The maximum abundance of Ostreopsis was reached in summer when temperature was high and a low relationship between O. ovata and nutrient was detected.
Mounir Ben brahim
2015-08-01
Full Text Available Objective: To study the seasonal and monthly variability of the toxic dinoflagellate Ostreopsis ovata (O. ovata in relation to environmental parameters in Kerkennah Island. Methods: Three water samples replicate of one-litter were taken daily for ten consecutive days on 12 months. All sampling water was kept in the dark at ambient temperature until their microscopic observation. Environmental variables such as salinity and temperature were measured in the field concomitantly as phytoplankton sampling. Nutrients (ammonium, nitrite, nitrate, phosphate and silicate were analysed in laboratory with Auto-analyser Luebbe type. Cell identification and enumeration in water samples were performed with an inverted microscope after the sedimentation. Results: The highest abundance of O. ovata was recorded in summer. Analysis of variance showed significant difference of abundance between seasons, whereas no significant difference for month was detected. Factorial analysis ordination showed a positive correlation of Ostreopsis mainly with temperature and low correlation with nitrite and nitrate whereas the second axis (with 26.30% of variance showed that Ostreopsis was correlated with temperature and salinity. Conclusions: The maximum abundance of Ostreopsis was reached in summer when temperature was high and a low relationship between O. ovata and nutrient was detected.
Jordon, J.W.; Alston, A.M.
1966-01-01
The mean fluorine content of herbage in areas free from industrial contamination was 3 ppM (range: 1 to 10 ppM). High fluorine contents caused by contamination were found in the vicinity of brickworks and related industries near Dungannon and Coal-island. The mean fluorine content of herbage within half a mile of the works was 30 ppM (range: 11 to 71 ppM). Similar fluorine concentrations occurred in herbage close to a fertilizer factory near Londonderry, but no appreciable contamination was found in any other area. Industrial emissions had no apparent effect on the fluorine content of water supplies. Most water supplies contained less than 0.3 ppM fluorine, except in South Fermanagh where up to 5.7 ppM occurred in water from deep wells. Ingestion by cattle of contaminated herbage or water with a high fluorine content was reflected by a high excretion of fluorine in the urine. Concentrations of up to 17 ppM were recorded. Mild symptoms of dental fluorosis were detected in a few cows, but levels of fluorine ingestion were not sufficient to cause loss of production or affect the health of the animals.
Franz, Marcus; Wolheim, Anke; Richter, Petra; Umbreit, Claudia; Dahse, Regine; Driemel, Oliver; Hyckel, Peter; Virtanen, Ismo; Kosmehl, Hartwig; Berndt, Alexander
2010-04-01
The contribution of stromal laminin chain expression to malignant potential, tumour stroma reorganization and vessel formation in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is not fully understood. Therefore, the expression of the laminin chains alpha2, alpha3, alpha4, alpha5 and gamma2 in the stromal compartment/vascular structures in OSCC was analysed. Frozen tissue of OSCC (9x G1, 24x G2, 8x G3) and normal (2x)/hyperplastic (11x) oral mucosa was subjected to laminin chain and alpha-smooth muscle actin (ASMA) immunohistochemistry. Results were correlated to tumour grade. The relation of laminin chain positive vessels to total vessel number was assessed by immunofluorescence double labelling with CD31. Stromal laminin alpha2 chain significantly decreases and alpha3, alpha4, alpha5 and gamma2 chains and also ASMA significantly increase with rising grade. The amount of stromal alpha3, alpha4 and gamma2 chains significantly increased with rising ASMA positivity. There is a significant decrease in alpha3 chain positive vessels with neoplastic transformation. Mediated by myofibroblasts, OSCC development is associated with a stromal up-regulation of laminin isoforms possibly contributing to a migration promoting microenvironment. A vascular basement membrane reorganization concerning alpha3 and gamma2 chain laminins during tumour angioneogenesis is suggested.
Armour, Cherie; Sleath, Emma
2014-01-01
Background The inter-generational transmission of violence (ITV) hypothesis and polyvictimisation have been studied extensively. The extant evidence suggests that individuals from violent families are at increased risk of subsequent intimate partner violence (IPV) and that a proportion of individuals experience victimisation across multiple rather than single IPV domains. Both ITV and polyvictimisation are shown to increase the risk of psychiatric morbidity, alcohol use, and anger expression. Objective The current study aimed to 1) ascertain if underlying typologies of victimisation across the life-course and over multiple victimisation domains were present and 2) ascertain if groupings differed on mean scores of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, alcohol use, and anger expression. Method University students (N=318) were queried in relation to victimisation experiences and psychological well-being. Responses across multiple domains of IPV spanning the life-course were used in a latent profile analysis. ANOVA was subsequently used to determine if profiles differed in their mean scores on PTSD, depression, alcohol use, and anger expression. Results Three distinct profiles were identified; one of which comprised individuals who experienced “life-course polyvictimisation,” another showing individuals who experienced “witnessing parental victimisation,” and one which experienced “psychological victimisation only.” Life-course polyvictims scored the highest across most assessed measures. Conclusion Witnessing severe physical aggression and injury in parental relationships as a child has an interesting impact on the ITV into adolescence and adulthood. Life-course polyvictims are shown to experience increased levels of psychiatric morbidity and issues with alcohol misuse and anger expression. PMID:25279106
J. Ström
2003-01-01
Full Text Available Based on in-situ observations performed during the Interhemispheric differences in cirrus properties from anthropogenic emissions (INCA experiment, we introduce and discuss the cloud presence fraction (CPF defined as the ratio between the number of data points determined to represent cloud at a given ambient relative humidity over ice (RHI divided by the total number of data points at that value of RHI. The CPFs are measured with four different cloud probes. Within similar ranges of detected particle sizes and concentrations, it is shown that different cloud probes yield results that are in good agreement with each other. The CPFs taken at Southern Hemisphere (SH and Northern Hemisphere (NH midlatitudes differ from each other. Above ice saturation, clouds occurred more frequently during the NH campaign. Local minima in the CPF as a function of RHI are interpreted as a systematic underestimation of cloud presence when cloud particles become invisible to cloud probes. Based on this interpretation, we find that clouds during the SH campaign formed preferentially at RHIs between 140 and 155%, whereas clouds in the NH campaign formed at RHIs somewhat below 130%. The data show that interstitial aerosol and ice particles coexist down to RHIs of 70-90%, demonstrating that the ability to distinguish between different particle types in cirrus conditions depends on the sensors used to probe the aerosol/cirrus system. Observed distributions of cloud water content differ only slightly between the NH and SH campaigns and seem to be only weakly, if at all, affected by the freezing aerosols.
Cherie Armour
2014-09-01
Full Text Available Background: The inter-generational transmission of violence (ITV hypothesis and polyvictimisation have been studied extensively. The extant evidence suggests that individuals from violent families are at increased risk of subsequent intimate partner violence (IPV and that a proportion of individuals experience victimisation across multiple rather than single IPV domains. Both ITV and polyvictimisation are shown to increase the risk of psychiatric morbidity, alcohol use, and anger expression. Objective: The current study aimed to 1 ascertain if underlying typologies of victimisation across the life-course and over multiple victimisation domains were present and 2 ascertain if groupings differed on mean scores of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD, depression, alcohol use, and anger expression. Method: University students (N=318 were queried in relation to victimisation experiences and psychological well-being. Responses across multiple domains of IPV spanning the life-course were used in a latent profile analysis. ANOVA was subsequently used to determine if profiles differed in their mean scores on PTSD, depression, alcohol use, and anger expression. Results: Three distinct profiles were identified; one of which comprised individuals who experienced “life-course polyvictimisation,” another showing individuals who experienced “witnessing parental victimisation,” and one which experienced “psychological victimisation only.” Life-course polyvictims scored the highest across most assessed measures. Conclusion: Witnessing severe physical aggression and injury in parental relationships as a child has an interesting impact on the ITV into adolescence and adulthood. Life-course polyvictims are shown to experience increased levels of psychiatric morbidity and issues with alcohol misuse and anger expression.
Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.
2011-01-01
Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.
Goldberg, Samuel
1960-01-01
Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.
Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.
2011-01-01
Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.
Varieties of Belief and Probability
D.J.N. van Eijck (Jan); S. Ghosh; J. Szymanik
2015-01-01
htmlabstractFor reasoning about uncertain situations, we have probability theory, and we have logics of knowledge and belief. How does elementary probability theory relate to epistemic logic and the logic of belief? The paper focuses on the notion of betting belief, and interprets a language for
Contributions to quantum probability
Fritz, Tobias
2010-06-25
Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a
Probability effects in anticipation investigated with online behavioural measures (mouse tracking)
Bruhn, Pernille; Bærentsen, Klaus B.
-hoc behavioural measures of the anticipatory processes involved. Methods: The present study investigates how knowledge of probability affects real-time anticipatory processes. Behaviour is monitored online by tracking the computer mouse trajectory leading to a required response (mouse-click on Target......). The paradigm implements a probability structure that allows the participant to gain knowledge about the relative probability of the occurrence of two alternative events (target occurring at left or right side). Results: Preliminary results indicate that knowledge of probability affects both RT and mouse...... movement; both vary systematically over 4 probability conditions (100, 80, 50 and 20 %), with lower RT and mouse movements displaying more direct trajectory to the target in high probability trials....
1986-12-01
determining the consequences of assumptions about the behavior of a system . If the space of behaviors is represented by an envisionment , many such...consequences can be represented by pruning states from the envisionment . This paper provides a formal logic of occurrence which justifies the...algorithms involved and provides a language for relating specific histories to envisionments . The concepts and axioms are general enough to be applicable to
Agreeing Probability Measures for Comparative Probability Structures
P.P. Wakker (Peter)
1981-01-01
textabstractIt is proved that fine and tight comparative probability structures (where the set of events is assumed to be an algebra, not necessarily a σ-algebra) have agreeing probability measures. Although this was often claimed in the literature, all proofs the author encountered are not valid
Carmina Coronel
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Analysis of nonlinear quantitative EEG (qEEG markers describing complexity of signal in relation to severity of Alzheimer’s disease (AD was the focal point of this study. In this study, 79 patients diagnosed with probable AD were recruited from the multi-centric Prospective Dementia Database Austria (PRODEM. EEG recordings were done with the subjects seated in an upright position in a resting state with their eyes closed. Models of linear regressions explaining disease severity, expressed in Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE scores, were analyzed by the nonlinear qEEG markers of auto mutual information (AMI, Shannon entropy (ShE, Tsallis entropy (TsE, multiscale entropy (MsE, or spectral entropy (SpE, with age, duration of illness, and years of education as co-predictors. Linear regression models with AMI were significant for all electrode sites and clusters, where R 2 is 0.46 at the electrode site C3, 0.43 at Cz, F3, and central region, and 0.42 at the left region. MsE also had significant models at C3 with R 2 > 0.40 at scales τ = 5 and τ = 6 . ShE and TsE also have significant models at T7 and F7 with R 2 > 0.30 . Reductions in complexity, calculated by AMI, SpE, and MsE, were observed as the MMSE score decreased.
Rønjom, Marianne Feen; Brink, Carsten; Laugaard Lorenzen, Ebbe
2015-01-01
Background. To examine the variations of risk-estimates of radiation-induced hypothyroidism (HT) from our previously developed normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) in relation to variability of delineation of the thyroid...... gland. Patients and methods. In a previous study for development of an NTCP model for HT, the thyroid gland was delineated in 246 treatment plans of patients with HNSCC. Fifty of these plans were randomly chosen for re-delineation for a study of the intra- and inter-observer variability of thyroid......-observer variability resulted in a mean difference in thyroid volume and Dmean of 0.4 cm(3) (SD ± 1.6) and -0.5 Gy (SD ± 1.0), respectively, and 0.3 cm(3) (SD ± 1.8) and 0.0 Gy (SD ± 1.3) for inter-observer variability. The corresponding mean differences of NTCP values for radiation-induced HT due to intra- and inter...
Linear Positivity and Virtual Probability
Hartle, J B
2004-01-01
We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. A quantum theory of closed systems requires two elements; 1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory, and 2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time-neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to i...
Narvaez Perez, Camilo; Garcia Conejo, Dante Aristoteles [Comision Federal de Electricidad, Centro Nacional de Control de Energia, Area de Control Occidental, Zapopan, Jalisco (Mexico)]. E-mail: camilo.narvaez@cfe.gob.mx; camilo.narvaez@univa.mx; Ramirez Peredo, Patricia [Universidad de Guadalajara, Guadalajara, Jalisco (Mexico)]. E-mail: patyrape@hotmail.com; Blanco Gomez, Cesar Eduardo [Comision Federal de Electricidad, Centro Nacional de Control de Energia, Area de Control Occidental, Zapopan, Jalisco (Mexico)
2013-03-15
The growing power demand of users, who make loads of power systems, causes the components of such systems operating near its operating limits. And the transmission line, being the most common component in these, requires a thorough analysis in regard to the probability of three-phase shots and monopolars reclosing, considering thunderstorms, the demand system time, the flows circulating in lines, maintenance on other lines and other imponderantes. This research analyzes the normal probability of occurrence of shots in the 400 kV core network of the Area de Control Occidental, CFE and its impact on studies conducted prior to the maintenance. We intend to use the methodology in the Comision Federal de Electricidad and results can be validated with data from previous years, based on a pseudo shots forecast in a given period. [Spanish] La creciente demanda de energia electrica de los usuarios que componen las cargas de los sistemas electricos de potencia, provoca que los componentes de dichos sistemas funcionen cerca de sus limites operativos. Y la linea de transmision, al ser el componente mas comun en estos, requiere de un analisis minucioso en lo que respecta a la probabilidad de disparos trifasicos y recierres monopolares, considerando tormentas electricas, la demanda horaria del sistema, los flujos que circulan en las lineas, los mantenimientos en las demas lineas y demas imponderantes. En esta investigacion se analiza la probabilidad normal de ocurrencia de disparos en la red troncal de 400 kV del Area de Control Occidental y su impacto en los estudios que se realizan previos a los mantenimientos. Se pretende utilizar la metodologia en la Comision Federal de Electricidad, y los resultados pueden ser validados con datos de los anos anteriores, ya que se hace un pseudo pronostico de disparos en un periodo dado.
B. Kutlu; M. Civi
2006-01-01
@@ We study the order parameter probability distribution at the critical point for the three-dimensional spin-1/2 and spin-1 Ising models on the simple cubic lattice under periodic boundary conditions.
The Inductive Applications of Probability Calculus
Corrado Gini
2015-06-01
Full Text Available The Author goes back to Founders of Probability calculus to investigate their original interpretation of the probability measure in the applications of the probability theory to real problems. The Author puts in evidence some misunderstandings related to the inversion of deductions derived by the use of probability distributions for investigating the causes of events.
Bye, A.; Trope, C.; Loge, J.H.; Hjermstad, M.; Kaasa, S. [Norwegian Radium Hospital, Oslo (Norway). Dept. of Gynaecology
2000-07-01
Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and occurrence of late intestinal side effects were assessed 3-4 years after pelvic radiotherapy for carcinoma of the endometrium and cervix. During 1988-1990, 143 women were included in a clinical trial to evaluate the effect of a low fat, low lactose diet on radiation-induced diarrhoea. Of 94 survivors, 79 (84%) answered the request. HRQOL was assessed by the EORTC QLQ-C36 and compared with population-based norms. The women scored lower than the general population on role functioning (81.5 versus 90.6 (p < 0.01)) and higher on diarrhoea (23.8 versus 9.5 (p < 0.01)). Compared with pre-treatment conditions, an increase in cases with pain in the lower back, hips and thighs was seen. Substantial pain and diarrhoea were associated with deterioration in HRQOL. In conclusion, few treatment and/or disease-related effects were detected 3-4 years after radiotherapy, with the exception of increased bowel frequency and pain in the lower back, hips and thighs.
Hartnack, Amanda K; Van Metre, David C; Morley, Paul S
2012-03-15
To evaluate the potential association between Salmonella enterica shedding in hospitalized horses and the risk of diarrhea among stablemates, and to characterize gastrointestinal-related illness and death following discharge among horses that shed S. enterica while hospitalized. Retrospective cohort study [corrected]. 221 horses (59 that shed S. enterica during hospitalization and 162 that tested negative for S. enterica shedding ≥ 3 times during hospitalization). Information from medical records (signalment, results of microbial culture of fecal samples, clinical status at the time of culture, and treatment history) was combined with data collected through interviews with horse owners regarding formerly hospitalized horses and their stablemates. Data were analyzed to investigate risk factors for death and diarrhea. Occurrence of diarrhea among stablemates of formerly hospitalized horses was not associated with S. enterica shedding in hospitalized horses but was associated with oral treatment with antimicrobials during hospitalization. Salmonella enterica shedding during hospitalization was not associated with risk of death or gastrointestinal-related illness in study horses ≤ 6 months after discharge, but shedding status and history of gastrointestinal illness were associated with increased risk of death during the preinterview period. Stablemates of horses that shed S. enterica during hospitalization did not appear to have an increased risk for diarrhea, but comingling with horses that receive orally administered antimicrobials may affect this risk. Salmonella enterica shedding during hospitalization may be a marker of increased long-term risk of death after discharge. Risks are likely influenced by the S enterica strain involved and biosecurity procedures used.
Exact Probability Distribution versus Entropy
Kerstin Andersson
2014-10-01
Full Text Available The problem addressed concerns the determination of the average number of successive attempts of guessing a word of a certain length consisting of letters with given probabilities of occurrence. Both first- and second-order approximations to a natural language are considered. The guessing strategy used is guessing words in decreasing order of probability. When word and alphabet sizes are large, approximations are necessary in order to estimate the number of guesses. Several kinds of approximations are discussed demonstrating moderate requirements regarding both memory and central processing unit (CPU time. When considering realistic sizes of alphabets and words (100, the number of guesses can be estimated within minutes with reasonable accuracy (a few percent and may therefore constitute an alternative to, e.g., various entropy expressions. For many probability distributions, the density of the logarithm of probability products is close to a normal distribution. For those cases, it is possible to derive an analytical expression for the average number of guesses. The proportion of guesses needed on average compared to the total number decreases almost exponentially with the word length. The leading term in an asymptotic expansion can be used to estimate the number of guesses for large word lengths. Comparisons with analytical lower bounds and entropy expressions are also provided.
Schumann, Barbara; Winkler, Janine; Mickenautsch, Nicola; Warnken, Tobias; Dänicke, Sven
2016-08-01
Both deoxynivalenol (DON), zearalenone (ZEN), and their metabolites are known to modulate immune cells in various species whereby viability and proliferation are influenced. Such effects were rarely examined in horses. Therefore, one aim of the present study was to titrate the inhibitory concentrations of DON, 3-acetyl-DON (3AcDON), de-epoxy-DON (DOM-1), ZEN, and α- and β-zearalenol (ZEL) at which viability and proliferation of equine PBMC were reduced by 50 % (IC50) and 10 % (IC10) in vitro. For evaluation of practical relevance of the in vitro findings, a further aim was to screen horses for the background occurrence of DON, ZEN, and their metabolites in systemic circulation and to relate toxin residues both to the inhibitory toxin concentrations and to hematological and clinical-chemical characteristics.The IC50 (μM) for DON, 3AcDON, β-ZEL, α-ZEL, and ZEN were determined at 3.09, 25.90, 75.44, 97.44, and 98.15 in unstimulated cells, respectively, while in proliferating cells, the corresponding IC50 values were 0.73, 6.89, 45.16, 75.96, and 82.51. Neither viability nor proliferation was influenced by DOM-1 up to a concentration of 100 μM.The in vivo screening (N = 49) revealed the occurrence of ZEN (N = 24), α-ZEL (N = 3), β-ZEL (N = 37), DON, and DOM-1 (N = 2). The detected concentrations were much lower than the corresponding IC50 while the IC10 of DON and β-ZEL for proliferating PBMC corresponded to approximately 26 and 35 ng/mL which might be relevant when contaminated diets are fed.Clinical-chemical and hematological traits were not related to mycotoxin residue levels excepting blood urea nitrogen which was positively correlated to the sum of β-ZEL, α-ZEL, and ZEN concentration. Whether this reflects simply the feeding history of the horses or renal failures giving rise to a prolonged half-life of the toxins needs to be clarified further.
Elements of probability theory
Rumshiskii, L Z
1965-01-01
Elements of Probability Theory presents the methods of the theory of probability. This book is divided into seven chapters that discuss the general rule for the multiplication of probabilities, the fundamental properties of the subject matter, and the classical definition of probability. The introductory chapters deal with the functions of random variables; continuous random variables; numerical characteristics of probability distributions; center of the probability distribution of a random variable; definition of the law of large numbers; stability of the sample mean and the method of moments
The National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) use probability-survey designs to assess the condition of the nation’s waters. In probability surveys (also known as sample-surveys or statistical surveys), sampling sites are selected randomly.
Roussas, George G
2006-01-01
Roussas's Introduction to Probability features exceptionally clear explanations of the mathematics of probability theory and explores its diverse applications through numerous interesting and motivational examples. It provides a thorough introduction to the subject for professionals and advanced students taking their first course in probability. The content is based on the introductory chapters of Roussas's book, An Intoduction to Probability and Statistical Inference, with additional chapters and revisions. Written by a well-respected author known for great exposition an
Edwards, William F.; Shiflett, Ray C.; Shultz, Harris
2008-01-01
The mathematical model used to describe independence between two events in probability has a non-intuitive consequence called dependent spaces. The paper begins with a very brief history of the development of probability, then defines dependent spaces, and reviews what is known about finite spaces with uniform probability. The study of finite…
Interpretations of probability
Khrennikov, Andrei
2009-01-01
This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.
Strange, P.
2012-01-01
In this paper we demonstrate a surprising aspect of quantum mechanics that is accessible to an undergraduate student. We discuss probability backflow for an electron in a constant magnetic field. It is shown that even for a wavepacket composed entirely of states with negative angular momentum the effective angular momentum can take on positive…
Default probabilities and default correlations
Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans
2001-01-01
Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...
Perrone, Giancarlo; De Girolamo, Annalisa; Sarigiannis, Yiannis; Haidukowski, Miriam Edith; Visconti, Angelo
2013-01-01
The presence of ochratoxin A (OTA), fumonisin B2 (FB2) and black aspergilli in raisins from Western Greece regions (Messinia, Corinthia, Achaia, Ilia and Zante Island) was investigated in relation to the different geographic and climatic conditions in the 2011 growing season. The biseriate species Aspergillus niger "aggregate" and A. carbonarius were mainly identified. The population of A. niger "aggregate" species occurred in all raisin samples at colony-forming units (CFU) concentrations significantly higher (mean 2.2 × 10(5) CFU g(-1) homogenate) than those of A. carbonarius population (mean 4.9 × 10(3) CFU g(-1) homogenate), which occurred in 80% of the raisin samples. OTA was found in 73% of the samples at levels ranging from 0.1 µg kg(-1) to 98.2 µg kg(-1), with the highest level occurring in a raisin sample from Ilia that also contained the highest level of A. carbonarius. The European Union legal limit for OTA was exceeded in 15% of the raisin samples. FB2 was found in 29% of the raisin samples at levels ranging from 7.1 µg kg(-1) to 25.5 µg kg(-1), with 20% of the samples co-occurring with OTA. Principal-component analysis was applied to levels of mycotoxins, fungal contamination, geographical data and environmental conditions recorded in the harvesting (August) or drying (September) period. Principal-component analysis clearly indicated a good direct correlation of rainfall and relative humidity with OTA and A. carbonarius contamination. A lack of clustering was observed when A. niger and FB2 contamination were considered. This is the first report on the co-occurrence of the mycotoxins OTA and FB2 in dried vine fruits from Greece.
Massányi, P; Trandzik, J; Nad, P; Koreneková, B; Skalická, M; Toman, R; Lukac, N; Halo, M; Strapak, P
2004-01-01
In this study the concentration of copper, iron, zinc, cadmium, lead, and nickel in bull and ram semen and relation of these metals to spermatozoa morphology was investigated. Analysis by atomic absorption spectrophotometry showed that copper concentration was significantly higher (pzinc concentration was higher in bull semen in comparison with ram semen. The iron and cadmium concentrations in the semen were similar. Higher concentration of lead was found in ram semen. Higher levels of nickel were found in ram semen in comparison with bulls. In bull semen 11.79+/-4.88% of pathological spermatozoa was found. Higher occurrence of pathological spermatozoa was in ram semen (17.17+/-3.76) in comparison with the semen of bulls. Separated tail, tail torso, and knob twisted tail were the most frequent forms of pathological spermatozoa in both species. Correlation analysis in bulls showed high positive relation between iron and zinc (r = 0.72), nickel and separated tail (r = 0.76), separated tail and tail torso (r = 0.71), tail torso and total number of pathological spermatozoa (r=0.72), and between tail ball and total number of pathological spermatozoa (r = 0.78). In rams high positive correlation between cadmium and lead (r=0.98), nickel and separated tail (r=0.77), separated tail and total number of pathological spermatozoa (r=0.69), knob twisted tail and retention of cytoplasmic drop (r=0.78), and between knob twisted tail and other pathological spermatozoa (r = 0.71) was found. High negative correlation in ram semen was observed between copper and nickel (r=0.71), copper and separated tail (r=0.70), and between iron and tail torso (r=0.67). The results suggest that the studied metals have a direct effect on spermatozoa quality.
Stein, P D; Henry, J W
1997-05-01
The purpose of this investigation is to determine the prevalence of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) limited to subsegmental pulmonary arteries. Contrast-enhanced helical (spiral) and electron-beam CT, in the hands of experienced radiologists who are skillful with this modality, are sensitive for the detection of acute PE in central pulmonary arteries, but have a low sensitivity for the detection of PE limited to subsegmental pulmonary arteries. The potential for CT to diagnose PE, therefore, is partially dependent on the prevalence of PE limited to subsegmental pulmonary arteries. Data are from the Prospective Investigation of Pulmonary Embolism Diagnosis (PIOPED). The largest pulmonary arteries that showed PE, as interpreted by the PIOPED angiographic readers, were identified in 375 patients in PIOPED with angiographically diagnosed PE. Among all patients with PE, 6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4 to 9%) had PE limited to subsegmental branches of the pulmonary artery. Patients with high-probability ventilation/ perfusion (V/Q) scans had PE limited to subsegmental branches in only 1% (95% CI, 0 to 4%). Among patients with low-probability V/Q lung scans, 17% (95% CI, 8 to 29%) had PE limited to the subsegmental branches. Patients with low-probability V/Q scans and no prior cardiopulmonary disease had PE limited to the subsegmental pulmonary arteries in 30% (95% CI, 13 to 53%), whereas patients with low-probability V/Q scans who had prior cardiopulmonary disease had PE limited to subsegmental pulmonary arteries in 8% (95% CI, 2 to 22%) (p PIOPED, the prevalence of PE limited to subsegmental pulmonary arteries is low, 6%. PE limited to subsegmental pulmonary arteries was most prevalent among patients with low-probability V/Q scans, particularly if they had no prior cardiopulmonary disease.
Dynamical Simulation of Probabilities
Zak, Michail
1996-01-01
It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-Lipschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices(such as random number generators). Self-orgainizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed. Special attention was focused upon coupled stochastic processes, defined in terms of conditional probabilities, for which joint probability does not exist. Simulations of quantum probabilities are also discussed.
Childers, Timothy
2013-01-01
Probability is increasingly important for our understanding of the world. What is probability? How do we model it, and how do we use it? Timothy Childers presents a lively introduction to the foundations of probability and to philosophical issues it raises. He keeps technicalities to a minimum, and assumes no prior knowledge of the subject. He explains the main interpretations of probability-frequentist, propensity, classical, Bayesian, and objective Bayesian-and uses stimulatingexamples to bring the subject to life. All students of philosophy will benefit from an understanding of probability,
Empirical and Computational Tsunami Probability
Geist, E. L.; Parsons, T.; ten Brink, U. S.; Lee, H. J.
2008-12-01
sources of epistemic uncertainty in the computational analysis are the overall rate of occurrence and the inter-event distribution for landslide sources. From both empirical and computational analyses, tsunami probability as a function of runup (i.e., the tsunami hazard curve) in seismically active ocean basins such as the Pacific can be described by a modified power-law, which is similar to size distributions for other natural hazards (earthquakes, landslides, etc.). At present, it is unclear whether this form of the tsunami hazard curve is of the same form in ocean basins that have a much lower rate of tsunami occurrence (e.g, the Atlantic).
Daniel F de Carvalho
2010-04-01
Full Text Available O presente trabalho foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de estudar as características da erosividade da chuva em Seropédica (RJ, quanto à sua distribuição, probabilidade de ocorrência e período de retorno. Para isso, foi utilizada uma série mensal de dados pluviométricos referente ao período de 1973 a 2002 e, com o auxílio de modelos ajustados para a região, foi possível obter os índices mensais e anuais de erosividade EI30 e KE>25. Com base nos resultados obtidos, foi possível concluir que: a os valores médios anuais de EI30 e de KE>25 foram de 5.960,4 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 e de 99,2 MJ ha-1, respectivamente, e estão associados a períodos de retorno de 1,97 ano, com uma probabilidade de ocorrência de 50,82%; e b valores anuais de EI30 da ordem de 5.995; 7.262; 7.684; 7.895; 8.022 e 8.064 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 e de KE>25 da ordem de 99,8; 122,7; 130,3; 134,1; 136,4 e 137,1 MJ ha-1, são esperados, em média, uma vez a cada 2; 5; 10; 20; 50 e 100 anos, respectivamente.This work was carried out in order to study the distribution, the occurrence probability and the return period of the rainfall erosivity in Seropédica city, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. It was considered a continuous rain gauges series for the period from 1973 to 2002, and by using specific adjustment models for the region, it was determined the annual and monthly erosivity indexes EI30 and KE>25. With the obtained results, it was possible to conclude that: a the annual erosivity indexes values EI30 and KE>25 were 5,960.4 MJ mm ha-1 and 99.2 MJ ha-1 , respectively, which was expected to occur at least once every 1.97 year, with an occurrence probability of 50.82%; and b annual values EI30 of 5,995; 7,262; 7,684; 7,895 8,022 and8,064 MJ mm ha-1 and annual values KE>25 of 99.8; 122.7; 130.3; 134.1; 136.4 and 137.1 MJ ha-1 are expected at least once every 2; 5; 10; 20; 50 and 100 years, respectively.
Occurrence reporting and processing of operations information
NONE
1997-07-21
DOE O 232.1A, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information, and 10 CFR 830.350, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information (when it becomes effective), along with this manual, set forth occurrence reporting requirements for Department of Energy (DOE) Departmental Elements and contractors responsible for the management and operation of DOE-owned and -leased facilities. These requirements include categorization of occurrences related to safety, security, environment, health, or operations (``Reportable Occurrences``); DOE notification of these occurrences; and the development and submission of documented follow-up reports. This Manual provides detailed information for categorizing and reporting occurrences at DOE facilities. Information gathered by the Occurrence Reporting and processing System is used for analysis of the Department`s performance in environmental protection, safeguards and security, and safety and health of its workers and the public. This information is also used to develop lessons learned and document events that significantly impact DOE operations.
Cho, Hyunyi; Shen, Lijiang; Wilson, Kari M
2013-03-01
Perceived lack of realism in alcohol advertising messages promising positive outcomes and antialcohol and antidrug messages portraying negative outcomes of alcohol consumption has been a cause for public health concern. This study examined the effects of perceived realism dimensions on personal probability estimation through identification and message minimization. Data collected from college students in U.S. Midwest in 2010 (N = 315) were analyzed with multilevel structural equation modeling. Plausibility and narrative consistency mitigated message minimization, but they did not influence identification. Factuality and perceptual quality influenced both message minimization and identification, but their effects were smaller than those of typicality. Typicality was the strongest predictor of probability estimation. Implications of the results and suggestions for future research are provided.
Elhendy, A.; Sozzi, F.B.; Van Domburg, R.T.; Bax, J.J.; Roelandt, J.R.T.C. [Erasmus Universiteit, Rotterdam (Netherlands). Thorax Center; Valkema, R. [Dept. of Nuclear Medicine, University Hospital-Dijkzigt, Rotterdam (Netherlands)
2000-03-01
We studied 302 patients (mean age 54{+-}9 years, 152 men and 150 women) with intermediate pretest probability of CAD (range=0.25- 0.80, mean=0.43{+-}0.20) by upright bicycle exercise stress test in conjunction with technetium-99m single-photon emission tomography (SPET) imaging. Exercise-induced VAs (frequent or complex premature ventricular contractions or ventricular tachycardia) occurred in 65 patients (22%). No significant difference was found between patients with and patient without VAs regarding the pretest probability of CAD (0.45{+-}0.21 vs 0.43{+-}0.20). Patients with exercise-induced VAs had a higher prevalence of perfusion abnormalities (52% vs 26%, P=0.002) and ischaemic electrocardiographic changes (31% vs 16%, P<0.05) compared to patients without VAs. A higher prevalence of perfusion abnormalities in patients with VAs was observed in both men (67% vs 35%, P<0.01) and women (38% vs 16%, P<0.05). However, the positive predictive value of exercise-induced VAs for the presence of myocardial perfusion abnormalities was higher in men than in women (67% vs 38%, P<0.05). The presence of abnormal myocardial perfusion was the only independent predictor of exercise-induced VAs (OR 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4.2) by multivariate analysis of clinical and stress test variables. It is concluded that in patients with intermediate pretest probability of CAD, exercise-induced VAs are predictive of a higher prevalence of myocardial perfusion abnormalities in both men and women. However, the positive predictive value of exercise-induced VAs for perfusion abnormalities is higher in men. Because of the underestimation of ischaemia by electrocardiographic changes, exercise-induced VAs should be interpreted as a marker of a higher probability of CAD. (orig./MG) (orig.)
Free probability and random matrices
Mingo, James A
2017-01-01
This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.
Probability on real Lie algebras
Franz, Uwe
2016-01-01
This monograph is a progressive introduction to non-commutativity in probability theory, summarizing and synthesizing recent results about classical and quantum stochastic processes on Lie algebras. In the early chapters, focus is placed on concrete examples of the links between algebraic relations and the moments of probability distributions. The subsequent chapters are more advanced and deal with Wigner densities for non-commutative couples of random variables, non-commutative stochastic processes with independent increments (quantum Lévy processes), and the quantum Malliavin calculus. This book will appeal to advanced undergraduate and graduate students interested in the relations between algebra, probability, and quantum theory. It also addresses a more advanced audience by covering other topics related to non-commutativity in stochastic calculus, Lévy processes, and the Malliavin calculus.
A Probabilistic Estimation of Strong Earthquakes' Occurrence in Aeghion Area, Central Greece
Theodoros M. Tsapanos; Odysseus Ch. Galanis
2003-01-01
The probability of occurrence of strong ( Mw ≥ 6.0) earthquakes in the area of Aeghion(Central Greece) is determined by Bayes statistics. A catalogue of strong shocks around thecity of Aeghion since 1794 is used. For the purposes of our study two distributions ofearthquakes' occurrence are considered. In applying the Bayes approach, a Poissondistribution, which is a memoryless one, is assumed. In order to reinforce the result a time-dependent model (normal distribution) is also used. An effort is made to find the probabilitiesof earthquake occurrence for successive decades are determined by both distributions. Theestimated probability for a strong earthquake to occur during 1996 ～ 2005 in relation to theBayes approach shows that the year 2004 is the most likely for this future event. A pattern isalso revealed which suggests that the earthquakes in the examined area occurred in clusters (intime). The strong earthquakes in these clusters occurred in quadruplets.
Binkowski, Łukasz J; Merta, Dorota; Przystupińska, Anna; Sołtysiak, Zenon; Pacoń, Jarosław; Stawarz, Robert
2016-04-01
Together with the occurrence of parasites, increased concentrations of xenobiotics, to which scavengers are greatly exposed, may significantly influence the physiology of red foxes. It is also suspected that these two factors interact. The accumulation of various metals (Ca, Cd, Cu, Fe, Hg, K, Mg, Ni, Pb, Zn) in kidney, liver and muscle tissue was investigated, as well as the occurrence of parasites, and the potential link to the presence of metals. Generally speaking, neither sex nor age influenced these concentrations. K, Mg and Fe were found in the highest concentrations and Hg was found in the lowest. Various relationships between the concentrations of metals were observed in the tissues. 34% of the specimens studied were hosts to parasites. No clear, significant connection between the concentrations and the occurrence of parasites was noted, but the discernible trend confirmed by the logistic regression, needs further study.
Veltmeijer, Agnes Elisabeth Johanna
2016-01-01
The phenomenon ‘Intellectual Giftedness in co-occurrence with Autism Spectrum Disorder’ (IG+ASD) was explored in relation to psycho-educational assessment praxis. A systematic literature review revealed the absence of well-grounded theories of IG+ASD, and some converging tendencies concerning
Veltmeijer, Agnes Elisabeth Johanna
2016-01-01
The phenomenon ‘Intellectual Giftedness in co-occurrence with Autism Spectrum Disorder’ (IG+ASD) was explored in relation to psycho-educational assessment praxis. A systematic literature review revealed the absence of well-grounded theories of IG+ASD, and some converging tendencies concerning person
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, REPORTS), (*PROBABILITY, REPORTS), INFORMATION THEORY, DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS, STATISTICAL PROCESSES, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, DISTRIBUTION THEORY , DECISION THEORY, MEASURE THEORY, OPTIMIZATION
Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E
1972-01-01
Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var
Florescu, Ionut
2013-01-01
THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio
2014-01-01
Background Motif mining has always been a hot research topic in bioinformatics. Most of current research on biological networks focuses on exact motif mining. However, due to the inevitable experimental error and noisy data, biological network data represented as the probability model could better reflect the authenticity and biological significance, therefore, it is more biological meaningful to discover probability motif in uncertain biological networks. One of the key steps in probability motif mining is frequent pattern discovery which is usually based on the possible world model having a relatively high computational complexity. Methods In this paper, we present a novel method for detecting frequent probability patterns based on circuit simulation in the uncertain biological networks. First, the partition based efficient search is applied to the non-tree like subgraph mining where the probability of occurrence in random networks is small. Then, an algorithm of probability isomorphic based on circuit simulation is proposed. The probability isomorphic combines the analysis of circuit topology structure with related physical properties of voltage in order to evaluate the probability isomorphism between probability subgraphs. The circuit simulation based probability isomorphic can avoid using traditional possible world model. Finally, based on the algorithm of probability subgraph isomorphism, two-step hierarchical clustering method is used to cluster subgraphs, and discover frequent probability patterns from the clusters. Results The experiment results on data sets of the Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) networks and the transcriptional regulatory networks of E. coli and S. cerevisiae show that the proposed method can efficiently discover the frequent probability subgraphs. The discovered subgraphs in our study contain all probability motifs reported in the experiments published in other related papers. Conclusions The algorithm of probability graph isomorphism
Site occupancy models with heterogeneous detection probabilities
Royle, J. Andrew
2006-01-01
Models for estimating the probability of occurrence of a species in the presence of imperfect detection are important in many ecological disciplines. In these ?site occupancy? models, the possibility of heterogeneity in detection probabilities among sites must be considered because variation in abundance (and other factors) among sampled sites induces variation in detection probability (p). In this article, I develop occurrence probability models that allow for heterogeneous detection probabilities by considering several common classes of mixture distributions for p. For any mixing distribution, the likelihood has the general form of a zero-inflated binomial mixture for which inference based upon integrated likelihood is straightforward. A recent paper by Link (2003, Biometrics 59, 1123?1130) demonstrates that in closed population models used for estimating population size, different classes of mixture distributions are indistinguishable from data, yet can produce very different inferences about population size. I demonstrate that this problem can also arise in models for estimating site occupancy in the presence of heterogeneous detection probabilities. The implications of this are discussed in the context of an application to avian survey data and the development of animal monitoring programs.
Psychophysics of the probability weighting function
Takahashi, Taiki
2011-03-01
A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.
Mayumi Enya
2014-01-01
Conclusion: Rare variants of GIPR may contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes, possibly through insulin secretory defects. Furthermore, the genetic variant of PCSK1 might influence glucose homeostasis by altered insulin resistance independently of BMI, incretin level or proinsulin conversion, and may be associated with the occurrence of type 2 diabetes in Japanese.
On Quantum Conditional Probability
Isabel Guerra Bobo
2013-02-01
Full Text Available We argue that quantum theory does not allow for a generalization of the notion of classical conditional probability by showing that the probability defined by the Lüders rule, standardly interpreted in the literature as the quantum-mechanical conditionalization rule, cannot be interpreted as such.
Choice Probability Generating Functions
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...
Freund, John E
1993-01-01
Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.
Choice Probability Generating Functions
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...
Choice probability generating functions
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2013-01-01
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...
Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency
Varacca, Daniele
Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...
Nechaev, S
2003-01-01
We investigate the statistical properties of random walks on the simplest nontrivial braid group B sub 3 , and on related hyperbolic groups. We provide a method using Cayley graphs of groups allowing us to compute explicitly the probability distribution of the basic statistical characteristics of random trajectories - the drift and the return probability. The action of the groups under consideration in the hyperbolic plane is investigated, and the distribution of a geometric invariant - the hyperbolic distance - is analysed. It is shown that a random walk on B sub 3 can be viewed as a 'magnetic random walk' on the group PSL(2, Z).
Methodology for assessing probability of extreme hydrologic events coincidence
Prohaska Stevan
2010-01-01
Full Text Available The aim of the presented research is improvement of methodology for probability calculation of coinciding occurrence of historic floods and droughts in the same year. The original procedure was developed in order to determine the occurrence probability of such an extreme historic event. There are two phases in calculation procedure for assessment of both extreme drought and flood occurrence probability in the same year. In the first phase outliers are detected as indicators of extreme events, their return periods are calculated and series' statistics adjusted. In the second phase conditional probabilities are calculated: empirical points are plotted, and both extreme drought and flood occurrence probability in the same year is assessed based on the plot. Outlier detection is performed for the territory of Serbia. Results are shown as maps of regions (basins prone to floods, hydrologic drought, or both. Step-by-step numeric example is given for assessing conditional probability of occurrence of flood and drought for GS Raska on the river Raska. Results of assessment of conditional probability in two more cases are given for combination of extreme flood and 30 day minimum flow.
Muecke, Ralph [Dept. of Radiotherapy, St. Josefs-Hospital. Wiesbaden (Germany); Micke, Oliver [Dept. of Radiotherapy, Muenster Univ. Hospital (Germany); Reichl, Berthold [Dept. of Radiotherapy, Weiden Hospital (DE)] (and others)
2007-03-15
A total of 502 patients treated between 1990 and 2002 with low-dose radiotherapy (RT) for painful heel spurs were analysed for prognostic factors for long-term treatment success. The median follow-up was 26 months, ranging from 1 to 103 months. Events were defined as (1) slightly improved or unchanged pain after therapy, or (2) recurrent pain sensations during the follow-up period. Overall 8-year event-free probability was 60.9%. Event-free probabilities of patients with one/two series (414/88) were 69.7%/32.2% (p <0.001); >58/{<=}58 years (236/266), 81.3%/47.9% (p =0.001); high voltage/orthovoltage (341/161), 67.9%/60.6% (p =0.019); pain anamnesis {<=} 6 months/ >6 months (308/194), 76.3%/43.9% (p =0.001); single dose 0.5/1.0 Gy (100/401), 86.2%/55.1% (p =0.009); without/with prior treatment (121/381), 83.1%/54.9% (p =0.023); men/women (165/337), 61.2%/61.5% (p =0.059). The multivariate Cox regression analysis with inclusion of the number of treatment series, age, photon energy, pain history, single-dose and prior treatments revealed patients with only one treatment series (p <0.001), an age >58 years (p =0.011) and therapy with high voltage photons (p =0.050) to be significant prognostic factors for pain relief. Overall low-dose RT is a very effective treatment in painful heel spurs.
Billingsley, Patrick
2012-01-01
Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this
Thanassoulas, C; Verveniotis, G
2010-01-01
Starting from the observation that quite often the Earth's oscillating electric field varies in amplitude, a mechanism is postulated that accounts for these observations. That mechanism is the piezoelectric one driven by the M1 and K1 tidal components. It is demonstrated how the system: piezoelectricity triggered in the lithosphere - M1 and K1 tidal components is activated and produces the amplitude modulated Earth's oscillating electric field. This procedure is linked to the strain load conditions met in the seismogenic area before the occurrence of a large EQ. Peaks of the oscillating Earth's electric field are tightly connected to the M1 peak tidal component and to the timing of the occurrence of large EQs. Typical examples from real recordings of the Earth's oscillating electric field, recorded by the ATH (Greece) monitoring site, are given in order to verify the postulated detailed piezoelectric mechanism.
Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager
1997-01-01
To collect background information for formulating a description of the expected soil properties along the tunnel line, in 1987 Storebælt initiated a statistical investigation of the occurrence and size of boulders in the Great Belt area. The data for the boulder size distribution were obtained by...
Hartmann, Stephan
2011-01-01
Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...
Concepts of probability theory
Pfeiffer, Paul E
1979-01-01
Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.
Hemmo, Meir
2012-01-01
What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive.
Probability and Bayesian statistics
1987-01-01
This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...
Grimmett, Geoffrey
2014-01-01
Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...
THE NUCLEAR ENCOUNTER PROBABILITY
SMULDERS, PJM
1994-01-01
This Letter dicusses the nuclear encounter probability as used in ion channeling analysis. A formulation is given, incorporating effects of large beam angles and beam divergence. A critical examination of previous definitions is made.
Shorack, Galen R
2017-01-01
This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...
Probability and Statistical Inference
Prosper, Harrison B.
2006-01-01
These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.
Sandra de O. Saes
2005-04-01
Universidade do Sagrado Coração. METHODS: Newborns and infants were monthly submitted to anamneses, otoscopy, behavioral hearing assessment using sound instruments and pure tones (pediatric audiometry and tympanometry. RESULTS: The results revealed that 68.4% of infants presented one or more episodes of middle ear secretion during their two first years, with more recurrence among males. Peak occurrence was between four and 12 months of age and, the earlier the first episode, the higher the probability of recurrence. Greatest incidence was during May and August. It was found that, of the variables investigated, the period of exclusive breastfeeding actuated as a protector factor. With respect of risk factors, it was observed that passive smoking, gastro-esophageal reflux and respiratory allergy were related with the recurrences of effusion. CONCLUSION: Findings revealed the importance of periodic auditory follow-up for infants during their first two years of life, considered to be the critical period of auditory system maturation, during which sensory deprivation can be responsible for damage to the development of speech, language and other auditory abilities.
Quantum computing and probability.
Ferry, David K
2009-11-25
Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.
Monte Carlo transition probabilities
Lucy, L. B.
2001-01-01
Transition probabilities governing the interaction of energy packets and matter are derived that allow Monte Carlo NLTE transfer codes to be constructed without simplifying the treatment of line formation. These probabilities are such that the Monte Carlo calculation asymptotically recovers the local emissivity of a gas in statistical equilibrium. Numerical experiments with one-point statistical equilibrium problems for Fe II and Hydrogen confirm this asymptotic behaviour. In addition, the re...
Occurrence and properties of petunia peroxidase a.
Hendriks, Th.
1989-01-01
Peroxidases are probably the most extensively studied enzymes in higher plants. Various isoenzymes occur as soluble proteins in the apoplast and in the vacuole, or are bound to membranes and cell walls. Their occurrence is often organ-specific and developmentally controlled, and there is circumstant
Occurrence and properties of Petunia peroxidase a
Hendriks, T.
1989-01-01
Peroxidases are probably the most extensively studied enzymes in higher plants. Various isoenzymes occur as soluble proteins in the apoplast and in the vacuole, or are bound to membranes and cell walls. Their occurrence is often organ-specific and developmentally controlled, and there is
Occurrence and properties of Petunia peroxidase a
Hendriks, T.
1989-01-01
Peroxidases are probably the most extensively studied enzymes in higher plants. Various isoenzymes occur as soluble proteins in the apoplast and in the vacuole, or are bound to membranes and cell walls. Their occurrence is often organ-specific and developmentally controlled, and there is ci
Probability theory a foundational course
Pakshirajan, R P
2013-01-01
This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.
VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich
2012-10-01
Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.
Pu, H. C.; Lin, C. H.
2016-05-01
To investigate the seismic behavior of crustal deformation, we deployed a dense seismic network at the Hsinchu area of northwestern Taiwan during the period between 2004 and 2006. Based on abundant local micro-earthquakes recorded at this seismic network, we have successfully determined 274 focal mechanisms among ∼1300 seismic events. It is very interesting to see that the dominant energy of both seismic strike-slip and normal faulting mechanisms repeatedly alternated with each other within two years. Also, the strike-slip and normal faulting earthquakes were largely accompanied with the surface slipping along N60°E and uplifting obtained from the continuous GPS data, individually. Those phenomena were probably resulted by the slow uplifts at the mid-crust beneath the northwestern Taiwan area. As the deep slow uplift was active below 10 km in depth along either the boundary fault or blind fault, the push of the uplifting material would simultaneously produce both of the normal faulting earthquakes in the shallow depths (0-10 km) and the slight surface uplifting. As the deep slow uplift was stop, instead, the strike-slip faulting earthquakes would be dominated as usual due to strongly horizontal plate convergence in the Taiwan. Since the normal faulting earthquakes repeatedly dominated in every 6 or 7 months between 2004 and 2006, it may conclude that slow slip events in the mid crust were frequent to release accumulated tectonic stress in the Hsinchu area.
The perception of probability.
Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E
2014-01-01
We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making.
Experimental Probability in Elementary School
Andrew, Lane
2009-01-01
Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.
Experimental Probability in Elementary School
Andrew, Lane
2009-01-01
Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.
Probability of Failure in Random Vibration
Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
1988-01-01
Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out......-crossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval and thus for the first-passage probability...
Isaac, Richard
1995-01-01
The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...
Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability
Melucci, Massimo
2011-01-01
The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...
Collision Probability Analysis
Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup
1998-01-01
It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...
Bin Jiang
2017-06-01
Full Text Available The epidemiological characteristics of transient ischemic attacks (TIAs in China are unclear. In 2013, we conducted a nationally representative, door-to-door epidemiological survey on TIA in China using a complex, multistage, probability sampling design. Results showed that the weighted prevalence of TIA in China was 103.3 [95% confidence interval (CI: 83.9–127.2] per 100,000 in the population, 92.4 (75.0–113.8 per 100,000 among men, and 114.7 (87.2–151.0 per 100,000 among women. The weighted incidence of TIA was 23.9 (17.8–32.0 per 100,000 in the population, 21.3 (14.3–31.5 per 100,000 among men, and 26.6 (17.0–41.7 per 100,000 among women. No difference in average prognosis was found between TIA and stroke in the population. Weighted risk of stroke among TIA patients was 9.7% (6.5–14.3%, 11.1% (7.5–16.1%, and 12.3% (8.4–17.7% at 2, 30, and 90 days, respectively. The risk of stroke was higher among male patients with a history of TIA than among female patients with a history of TIA (OR: 2.469; 95% CI: 1.172–5.201; P = 0.018, and higher among TIA patients with hypertension than among TIA patients without hypertension (OR: 2.671; 1.547–4.613; P < 0.001. It can be concluded that there are an estimated 1.35 million TIA patients nationwide, with 0.31 million new cases of TIA annually in China. TIA patients were not better managed prior to a stroke event. Early risk of stroke among TIA patients is high. Sex and hypertension may be stroke-associated prognostic factors among TIA patients. TIA clinics and surveillance should be integrated into the national health-care system.
Negative Probabilities and Contextuality
de Barros, J Acacio; Oas, Gary
2015-01-01
There has been a growing interest, both in physics and psychology, in understanding contextuality in experimentally observed quantities. Different approaches have been proposed to deal with contextual systems, and a promising one is contextuality-by-default, put forth by Dzhafarov and Kujala. The goal of this paper is to present a tutorial on a different approach: negative probabilities. We do so by presenting the overall theory of negative probabilities in a way that is consistent with contextuality-by-default and by examining with this theory some simple examples where contextuality appears, both in physics and psychology.
Introduction to imprecise probabilities
Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M
2014-01-01
In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin
Carr, D.B.; Tolley, H.D.
1982-12-01
This paper investigates procedures for univariate nonparametric estimation of tail probabilities. Extrapolated values for tail probabilities beyond the data are also obtained based on the shape of the density in the tail. Several estimators which use exponential weighting are described. These are compared in a Monte Carlo study to nonweighted estimators, to the empirical cdf, to an integrated kernel, to a Fourier series estimate, to a penalized likelihood estimate and a maximum likelihood estimate. Selected weighted estimators are shown to compare favorably to many of these standard estimators for the sampling distributions investigated.
Classic Problems of Probability
Gorroochurn, Prakash
2012-01-01
"A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin
Ekinci, Ozalp; Gunes, Serkan; Ekinci, Nuran
2017-08-31
Galactorrhea, as an adverse effect of psychotropic medications, usually develops due to high dose of antipsychotics. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) have also been reported to be related to galactorrhea. To the best of our knowledge, no previous study reported galactorrhea with methylphenidate (MPH) use. Hereby, we report a case of an adolescent girl who developed galactorrhea after increasing his modifed-release oral MPH to 50 mg/day while under treatment of sertraline and very low dose haloperidol.
Plotnitsky, Arkady
2010-01-01
Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general
Counterexamples in probability
Stoyanov, Jordan M
2013-01-01
While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.
Varga, Tamas
This booklet resulted from a 1980 visit by the author, a Hungarian mathematics educator, to the Teachers' Center Project at Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville. Included are activities and problems that make probablility concepts accessible to young children. The topics considered are: two probability games; choosing two beads; matching…
Collision Probability Analysis
Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup
1998-01-01
probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...
Evaluation of the risk factors contributing to the African swine fever occurrence in Sardinia, Italy
Martínez-López, Beatriz; Perez, Andres M.; Feliziani, Francesco; Rolesu, Sandro; Mur, Lina; José M. Sánchez-Vizcaíno
2015-01-01
This study assesses the relation between hypothesized risk factors and African swine fever virus (ASFV) distribution in Sardinia (Italy) after the beginning of the eradication program in 1993, using a Bayesian multivariable logistic regression mixed model. Results indicate that the probability of ASFV occurrence in Sardinia was associated to particular socio-cultural, productive and economical factors found in the region, particularly to large number of confined (i.e., closed) farms (most of ...
Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin
2010-12-01
Motivated by IF-probability theory (intuitionistic fuzzy), we study n-component probability domains in which each event represents a body of competing components and the range of a state represents a simplex S n of n-tuples of possible rewards-the sum of the rewards is a number from [0,1]. For n=1 we get fuzzy events, for example a bold algebra, and the corresponding fuzzy probability theory can be developed within the category ID of D-posets (equivalently effect algebras) of fuzzy sets and sequentially continuous D-homomorphisms. For n=2 we get IF-events, i.e., pairs ( μ, ν) of fuzzy sets μ, ν∈[0,1] X such that μ( x)+ ν( x)≤1 for all x∈ X, but we order our pairs (events) coordinatewise. Hence the structure of IF-events (where ( μ 1, ν 1)≤( μ 2, ν 2) whenever μ 1≤ μ 2 and ν 2≤ ν 1) is different and, consequently, the resulting IF-probability theory models a different principle. The category ID is cogenerated by I=[0,1] (objects of ID are subobjects of powers I X ), has nice properties and basic probabilistic notions and constructions are categorical. For example, states are morphisms. We introduce the category S n D cogenerated by Sn=\\{(x1,x2,ldots ,xn)in In;sum_{i=1}nxi≤ 1\\} carrying the coordinatewise partial order, difference, and sequential convergence and we show how basic probability notions can be defined within S n D.
Probability representations of fuzzy systems
LI Hongxing
2006-01-01
In this paper, the probability significance of fuzzy systems is revealed. It is pointed out that COG method, a defuzzification technique used commonly in fuzzy systems, is reasonable and is the optimal method in the sense of mean square. Based on different fuzzy implication operators, several typical probability distributions such as Zadeh distribution, Mamdani distribution, Lukasiewicz distribution, etc. are given. Those distributions act as "inner kernels" of fuzzy systems. Furthermore, by some properties of probability distributions of fuzzy systems, it is also demonstrated that CRI method, proposed by Zadeh, for constructing fuzzy systems is basically reasonable and effective. Besides, the special action of uniform probability distributions in fuzzy systems is characterized. Finally, the relationship between CRI method and triple I method is discussed. In the sense of construction of fuzzy systems, when restricting three fuzzy implication operators in triple I method to the same operator, CRI method and triple I method may be related in the following three basic ways: 1) Two methods are equivalent; 2) the latter is a degeneration of the former; 3) the latter is trivial whereas the former is not. When three fuzzy implication operators in triple I method are not restricted to the same operator, CRI method is a special case of triple I method; that is, triple I method is a more comprehensive algorithm. Since triple I method has a good logical foundation and comprises an idea of optimization of reasoning, triple I method will possess a beautiful vista of application.
Active Longitude and Coronal Mass Ejection Occurrences
Gyenge, N.; Singh, T.; Kiss, T. S.; Srivastava, A. K.; Erdélyi, R.
2017-03-01
The spatial inhomogeneity of the distribution of coronal mass ejection (CME) occurrences in the solar atmosphere could provide a tool to estimate the longitudinal position of the most probable CME-capable active regions in the Sun. The anomaly in the longitudinal distribution of active regions themselves is often referred to as active longitude (AL). In order to reveal the connection between the AL and CME spatial occurrences, here we investigate the morphological properties of active regions. The first morphological property studied is the separateness parameter, which is able to characterize the probability of the occurrence of an energetic event, such as a solar flare or CME. The second morphological property is the sunspot tilt angle. The tilt angle of sunspot groups allows us to estimate the helicity of active regions. The increased helicity leads to a more complex buildup of the magnetic structure and also can cause CME eruption. We found that the most complex active regions appear near the AL and that the AL itself is associated with the most tilted active regions. Therefore, the number of CME occurrences is higher within the AL. The origin of the fast CMEs is also found to be associated with this region. We concluded that the source of the most probably CME-capable active regions is at the AL. By applying this method, we can potentially forecast a flare and/or CME source several Carrington rotations in advance. This finding also provides new information for solar dynamo modeling.
Negative probability in the framework of combined probability
Burgin, Mark
2013-01-01
Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...
Negative probability in the framework of combined probability
Burgin, Mark
2013-01-01
Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...
Hadi Darvishi Khezri
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Background: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP is a type of lung infection that typically affects critically ill patients undergoing mechanical ventilation (MV in the intensive care unit (ICU. Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM are considered to be more susceptible to several types of infections including community-acquired pneumonia. However, it is not clear whether T2DM is a risk factor for the development of VAP. The purpose of this study was to determine the risk of VAP for diabetic and nondiabetic mechanically ventilated trauma patients. Materials and Methods: This study is a secondary analysis of a prospective observational study of the history of T2DM in the ICU over a period of 1 year at Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. A total of 186 critically ill trauma patients who required at least 48 h of MV were monitored for the occurrence of VAP by their clinical pulmonary infection score (CPIS until ICU discharge, VAP diagnosis, or death. Results: Forty-one of the 186 patients developed VAP. The median time from hospitalization to VAP was 29.09 days (95% CI: 26.27-31.9. The overall incidence of VAP was 18.82 cases per 1,000 days of intubation (95% CI: 13.86-25.57. Risk of VAP in diabetic patients was greater than nondiabetic patients after adjustments for other potential factors [hazard ratio (HR: 10.12 [95% confidence interval (CI: 5.1-20.2; P < 0.0001]. Conclusion: The findings show that T2DM is associated with a significant increase in the occurrence of VAP in mechanically ventilated adult trauma patients.
Chleborad, Alan F.; Baum, Rex L.; Godt, Jonathan W.
2006-01-01
Empirical rainfall thresholds and related information form a basis for forecasting landslides in the Seattle area. A formula for a cumulative rainfall threshold (CT), P3=3.5-0.67P15, defined by rainfall amounts (in inches) during the last 3 days (72 hours), P3, and the previous 15 days (360 hours), P15, was developed from analysis of historical data for 91 landslides that occurred as part of 3-day events of three or more landslides between 1933 and 1997. Comparison with historical records for 577 landslides (including some used in developing the CT) indicates that the CT captures more than 90 percent of historical landslide events of three or more landslides in 1-day and 3-day periods that were recorded from 1978 to 2003. However, the probability of landslide occurrence on a day when the CT is exceeded at any single rain gage (8.4 percent) is low, and additional criteria are needed to confidently forecast landslide occurrence. Exceedance of a rainfall intensity-duration threshold I=3.257D-1.13, for intensity, I, (inch per hour) and duration, D, (hours), corresponds to a higher probability of landslide occurrence (42 percent at any 3 rain gages or 65 percent at any 10 rain gages), but it predicts fewer landslides. Both thresholds must be used in tandem to forecast landslide occurrence in Seattle.
Patterns and determinants of mammal species occurrence in India
Karanth, K.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Karanth, K.U.; Christensen, N.L.
2009-01-01
Many Indian mammals face range contraction and extinction, but assessments of their population status are hindered by the lack of reliable distribution data and range maps. 2. We estimated the current geographical ranges of 20 species of large mammals by applying occupancy models to data from country-wide expert. We modelled species in relation to ecological and social covariates (protected areas, landscape characteristics and human influences) based on a priori hypotheses about plausible determinants of mammalian distribution patterns. 3. We demonstrated that failure to incorporate detection probability in distribution survey methods underestimated habitat occupancy for all species. 4. Protected areas were important for the distribution of 16 species. However, for many species much of their current range remains unprotected. The availability of evergreen forests was important for the occurrence of 14 species, temperate forests for six species, deciduous forests for 15 species and higher altitude habitats for two species. Low human population density was critical for the occurrence of five species, while culturally based tolerance was important for the occurrence of nine other species. 5. Rhino Rhinoceros unicornis, gaur Bos gaurus and elephant Elephas maximus showed the most restricted ranges among herbivores, and sun bear Helarctos malayanus, brown bear Ursus arctos and tiger Panthera tigris were most restricted among carnivores. While cultural tolerance has helped the survival of some mammals, legal protection has been critically associated with occurrence of most species. 6. Synthesis and applications. Extent of range is an important determinant of species conservation status. Understanding the relationship of species occurrence with ecological and socio-cultural covariates is important for identification and management of key conservation areas. The combination of occupancy models with field data from country-wide experts enables reliable estimation of species
Probability theory and applications
Hsu, Elton P
1999-01-01
This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.
von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo
2014-06-01
Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.
1983-07-26
DeGroot , Morris H. Probability and Statistic. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Reading, Massachusetts, 1975. [Gillogly 78] Gillogly, J.J. Performance...distribution [ DeGroot 751 has just begun. The beta distribution has several features that might make it a more reasonable choice. As with the normal-based...1982. [Cooley 65] Cooley, J.M. and Tukey, J.W. An algorithm for the machine calculation of complex Fourier series. Math. Comp. 19, 1965. [ DeGroot 75
Whittle, Peter
1992-01-01
This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...
Cluster pre-existence probability
Rajeswari, N.S.; Vijayaraghavan, K.R.; Balasubramaniam, M. [Bharathiar University, Department of Physics, Coimbatore (India)
2011-10-15
Pre-existence probability of the fragments for the complete binary spectrum of different systems such as {sup 56}Ni, {sup 116}Ba, {sup 226}Ra and {sup 256}Fm are calculated, from the overlapping part of the interaction potential using the WKB approximation. The role of reduced mass as well as the classical hydrodynamical mass in the WKB method is analysed. Within WKB, even for negative Q -value systems, the pre-existence probability is calculated. The calculations reveal rich structural information. The calculated results are compared with the values of preformed cluster model of Gupta and collaborators. The mass asymmetry motion is shown here for the first time as a part of relative separation motion. (orig.)
Sm Transition Probabilities and Abundances
Lawler, J E; Sneden, C; Cowan, J J
2005-01-01
Radiative lifetimes, accurate to +/- 5%, have been measured for 212 odd-parity levels of Sm II using laser-induced fluorescence. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier-transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for more than 900 lines of Sm II. This work is the largest-scale laboratory study to date of Sm II transition probabilities using modern methods. This improved data set has been used to determine a new solar photospheric Sm abundance, log epsilon = 1.00 +/- 0.03, from 26 lines. The spectra of three very metal-poor, neutron-capture-rich stars also have been analyzed, employing between 55 and 72 Sm II lines per star. The abundance ratios of Sm relative to other rare earth elements in these stars are in agreement, and are consistent with ratios expected from rapid neutron-capture nucleosynthesis (the r-process).
Drought occurrence analysis in Tunisia
Touati, Salima; Hermassi, Taoufik; Habaieb, Hamadi
2017-04-01
Droughtis a terrible scourge for the Tunisianeconomybasedmainly on rainfed agricultural production. The analysis of the recurrence and the persistence of thisphenomenon by scientificmethodsseeks to establish a probabilityestimatewhichcouldcontribute to the planning of strategies for the mobilization and management of water resources. This paperaims on the analysis of the occurrence and the persistence of the meteorologicaldrought in Tunisia by Markov chain. It isbased on monthly data for 115 yearsfrom 24 rainfall stations distributed over the Tunisianterritory. The studyshowedthatdroughtis a frequentphenomenonrecurringeverytwoyears or eventhreeyears or more. The probability of havingtwoconsecutive dry yearsisgreater in the western regions (the Northwest, the Center-West, and the Southwest). Theseregions are known for their agricultural production and theireconomic contribution. The application of the standardizedprecipitation index showedthat the Tunisianclimateisoftenfrequented by mild to moderateweatherdroughts. Theseresultscontribute to the establishment of astrategy to combat drought.
Analysis of co-occurrence networks with clique occurrence information
Shen, Bin; Li, Yixiao
2014-12-01
Most of co-occurrence networks only record co-occurrence relationships between two entities, and ignore the weights of co-occurrence cliques whose size is bigger than two. However, this ignored information may help us to gain insight into the co-occurrence phenomena of systems. In this paper, we analyze co-occurrence networks with clique occurrence information (CNCI) thoroughly. First, we describe the components of CNCIs and discuss the generation of clique occurrence information. And then, to illustrate the importance and usefulness of clique occurrence information, several metrics, i.e. single occurrence rate, average size of maximal co-occurrence cliques and four types of co-occurrence coefficients etc., are given. Moreover, some applications, such as combining co-occurrence frequency with structure-oriented centrality measures, are also discussed.
P300 amplitude variations, prior probabilities, and likelihoods: A Bayesian ERP study.
Kopp, Bruno; Seer, Caroline; Lange, Florian; Kluytmans, Anouck; Kolossa, Antonio; Fingscheidt, Tim; Hoijtink, Herbert
2016-10-01
The capability of the human brain for Bayesian inference was assessed by manipulating probabilistic contingencies in an urn-ball task. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded in response to stimuli that differed in their relative frequency of occurrence (.18 to .82). A veraged ERPs with sufficient signal-to-noise ratio (relative frequency of occurrence > .5) were used for further analysis. Research hypotheses about relationships between probabilistic contingencies and ERP amplitude variations were formalized as (in-)equality constrained hypotheses. Conducting Bayesian model comparisons, we found that manipulations of prior probabilities and likelihoods were associated with separately modifiable and distinct ERP responses. P3a amplitudes were sensitive to the degree of prior certainty such that higher prior probabilities were related to larger frontally distributed P3a waves. P3b amplitudes were sensitive to the degree of likelihood certainty such that lower likelihoods were associated with larger parietally distributed P3b waves. These ERP data suggest that these antecedents of Bayesian inference (prior probabilities and likelihoods) are coded by the human brain.
Occurrence and reoccurrence of clinical mastitis.
Morse, D; DeLorenzo, M A; Wilcox, C J; Natzke, R P; Bray, D R
1987-10-01
Clinical mastitis records for 6.5 yr (July 1977 through November 1983) from a large north Florida dairy were analyzed. Observed frequencies of clinical mastitis were calculated in 7240 Holstein and Jersey lactations. Least squares analyses used Holstein and Jersey lactations greater than 200 d and limited maximum parity to 5 (6732 lactations, 5738 episodes). Solutions for number of occurrences of clinical mastitis adjusted for month of parturition and breed effects were .47, .59, .94, 1.27, and 1.50 for parities 1 through 5. Solutions for number of occurrences across lactation in Holsteins was greater than for Jerseys (1.28 vs. .63). Solutions for occurrence of first episode in Holsteins increased from .35 in parity 1 to .71 in parity 5. Occurrence of episodes two through five increased as parity increased. Similar trends were found in Jerseys with the exception of parity 2. Correlation of residuals between specific episodes increased as episode increased. From episode 2 through 5 probability of another occurrence of clinical mastitis was greater than .75. Solutions for proportion of occurrences of clinical mastitis occurring during the first 35 d postcalving were .60, .36, .31, .30, and .28 for parities 1 through 5. Clinical mastitis in first parity cows occurred primarily during the first 35 d postcalving.
Skafida, Valeria
2013-07-01
The general consensus in the research to date is that family meals are linked to healthier eating habits in children, compared to not eating with the family. Yet, few studies explore what it is about commensality which leads to better food choices among children. Using a representative Scottish sample of five-year-old children, this research explores the extent to which family meal occurrence, meal patterns regarding where, when and with whom children eat and perceived meal enjoyment predict the quality of children's diets after controlling for indicators of maternal capital that influence both meal rituals and taste preferences. Eating the same food as parents is the aspect of family meals most strongly linked to better diets in children, highlighting the detrimental effect in the rise of 'children's food'. Although theoretical and empirical work pointed to the important health advantage in children eating together with parents, the results suggested that eating together was a far less important aspect of family meals. In evaluating the importance of the family meal, this article redirects attention away from issues of form and function towards issues of food choice. Policy implications and the importance for public health to recognise the way eating habits are defined by and reproduce social and cultural capital are discussed.
Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability
Melucci, Massimo
2011-01-01
The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of false alarm and the same parameter estimation data. As quantum probability provided more effective detectors than classical probability within other domains that data management, we conjecture that, the system that can implement subspace-based detectors shall be more effective than a system which implements a set-based detectors, the effectiveness being calculated as expected recall estimated over the probability of detection and expected fallout estimated over the probability of false alarm.
Using earthquake intensities to forecast earthquake occurrence times
J. R. Holliday
2006-01-01
Full Text Available It is well known that earthquakes do not occur randomly in space and time. Foreshocks, aftershocks, precursory activation, and quiescence are just some of the patterns recognized by seismologists. Using the Pattern Informatics technique along with relative intensity analysis, we create a scoring method based on time dependent relative operating characteristic diagrams and show that the occurrences of large earthquakes in California correlate with time intervals where fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to random clustering. Furthermore, we show that the methods used to obtain these results may be applicable to other parts of the world.
Landslide Probability Assessment by the Derived Distributions Technique
Muñoz, E.; Ochoa, A.; Martínez, H.
2012-12-01
Landslides are potentially disastrous events that bring along human and economic losses; especially in cities where an accelerated and unorganized growth leads to settlements on steep and potentially unstable areas. Among the main causes of landslides are geological, geomorphological, geotechnical, climatological, hydrological conditions and anthropic intervention. This paper studies landslides detonated by rain, commonly known as "soil-slip", which characterize by having a superficial failure surface (Typically between 1 and 1.5 m deep) parallel to the slope face and being triggered by intense and/or sustained periods of rain. This type of landslides is caused by changes on the pore pressure produced by a decrease in the suction when a humid front enters, as a consequence of the infiltration initiated by rain and ruled by the hydraulic characteristics of the soil. Failure occurs when this front reaches a critical depth and the shear strength of the soil in not enough to guarantee the stability of the mass. Critical rainfall thresholds in combination with a slope stability model are widely used for assessing landslide probability. In this paper we present a model for the estimation of the occurrence of landslides based on the derived distributions technique. Since the works of Eagleson in the 1970s the derived distributions technique has been widely used in hydrology to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme flows. The model estimates the probability density function (pdf) of the Factor of Safety (FOS) from the statistical behavior of the rainfall process and some slope parameters. The stochastic character of the rainfall is transformed by means of a deterministic failure model into FOS pdf. Exceedance probability and return period estimation is then straightforward. The rainfall process is modeled as a Rectangular Pulses Poisson Process (RPPP) with independent exponential pdf for mean intensity and duration of the storms. The Philip infiltration model
Christian T Ulrich
Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Vasospastic brain infarction is a devastating complication of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH. Using a probe for invasive monitoring of brain tissue oxygenation or blood flow is highly focal and may miss the site of cerebral vasospasm (CVS. Probe placement is based on the assumption that the spasm will occur either at the dependent vessel territory of the parent artery of the ruptured aneurysm or at the artery exposed to the focal thick blood clot. We investigated the likelihood of a focal monitoring sensor being placed in vasospasm or infarction territory on a hypothetical basis. METHODS: From our database we retrospectively selected consecutive SAH patients with angiographically proven (day 7-14 severe CVS (narrowing of vessel lumen >50%. Depending on the aneurysm location we applied a standard protocol of probe placement to detect the most probable site of severe CVS or infarction. We analyzed whether the placement was congruent with existing CVS/infarction. RESULTS: We analyzed 100 patients after SAH caused by aneurysms located in the following locations: MCA (n = 14, ICA (n = 30, A1CA (n = 4, AcoA or A2CA (n = 33, and VBA (n = 19. Sensor location corresponded with CVS territory in 93% of MCA, 87% of ICA, 76% of AcoA or A2CA, but only 50% of A1CA and 42% of VBA aneurysms. The focal probe was located inside the infarction territory in 95% of ICA, 89% of MCA, 78% of ACoA or A2CA, 50% of A1CA and 23% of VBA aneurysms. CONCLUSION: The probability that a single focal probe will be situated in the territory of severe CVS and infarction varies. It seems to be reasonably accurate for MCA and ICA aneurysms, but not for ACA or VBA aneurysms.
Elemar Antonino Cassol
2008-06-01
"R" da USLE, foi obtido de dados pluviométricos, representados pelo coeficiente de chuva, que pode ser utilizado para regiões climáticas semelhantes que apenas dispõem de dados pluviométricos. O valor da erosividade média anual de 9.751 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 ano-1 é esperado pelo menos uma vez a cada 2,2 anos, com uma probabilidade de ocorrência de 44,9 %.The erosivity potential of rainfalls can be estimated by some indexes, among them the EI30, which is given by the product of kinetic energy (E and rainfall intensity for a 30-minute period (I30. The purpose of this study was to determine rainfall erosivity, hydrological patterns, return period and probability of occurrence of erosive rainfalls in São Borja, RS, Brazil, based on diary rainfall charts of the FEPAGRO meteorological station, from 1956 to 2003. The duration and accumulated amount of each erosive rainfall were measured, entered in a spreadsheet, digitalized and processed by CHUVEROS software, which calculated the EI30 index and the monthly and annual total erosivity, besides determining the hydrological pattern of each rainfall. Most of the annual erosivity (76 % was concentrated between October and April, in the period of soil tillage, sowing and growth of summer crops. The most notable peak in the erosive potential was observed between March and April (1,260-1,269 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, when most crops are normally in full growth, while July and August were the months of lowest erosive potential (268-271 MJ mm ha-1 h-1. Of the total erosive rainfalls 47, 25 and 28 % had advanced, intermediary and delayed patterns, respectively, while these patterns corresponded to 50, 26 and 24 %, respectively, of the mean annual volume of erosive rainfalls and to 53, 25 and 22 % of the average annual erosivity. The mean annual index of erosivity in São Borja is 9,751 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 year-1. It represents the "R" Factor of the Universal Soil Loss Equation to be used in São Borja and regions with similar rainfall pattern
Average Transmission Probability of a Random Stack
Lu, Yin; Miniatura, Christian; Englert, Berthold-Georg
2010-01-01
The transmission through a stack of identical slabs that are separated by gaps with random widths is usually treated by calculating the average of the logarithm of the transmission probability. We show how to calculate the average of the transmission probability itself with the aid of a recurrence relation and derive analytical upper and lower…
Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling
Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.
2007-01-01
Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…
Average Transmission Probability of a Random Stack
Lu, Yin; Miniatura, Christian; Englert, Berthold-Georg
2010-01-01
The transmission through a stack of identical slabs that are separated by gaps with random widths is usually treated by calculating the average of the logarithm of the transmission probability. We show how to calculate the average of the transmission probability itself with the aid of a recurrence relation and derive analytical upper and lower…
Probabilities are single-case, or nothing
Appleby, D M
2004-01-01
Physicists have, hitherto, mostly adopted a frequentist conception of probability, according to which probability statements apply only to ensembles. It is argued that we should, instead, adopt an epistemic, or Bayesian conception, in which probabilities are conceived as logical constructs rather than physical realities, and in which probability statements do apply directly to individual events. The question is closely related to the disagreement between the orthodox school of statistical thought and the Bayesian school. It has important technical implications (it makes a difference, what statistical methodology one adopts). It may also have important implications for the interpretation of the quantum state.
Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a Bayesian approach
Berti, M.; Martina, M.; Franceschini, S.; Pignone, S.; Simoni, A.; Pizziolo, M.
2012-04-01
resulted in landslides must be considered in the analysis. The result is a value of landslide probability (from 0 to 1) for each combination of the selected rainfall variables. The method has been applied to the historical dataset of the Emilia-Romagna Region (Italy). The dataset contains more than 9000 landslide records, for 4141 of which the date of occurrence is reported with a daily accuracy. Among these, 2741 landslides are characterized by a well-defined triggering rainfall (objectively identifiable in terms of duration and intensity) suitable for the analysis. Rainfall that non resulted in landslides account for more than 250000 events. The results clearly show that landslide triggering in the study area is strongly related to rainfall event parameters (duration, intensity, total rainfall) while antecedent rainfall seem to be less important. Moreover, the lines of equal Bayes probability in the rainfall duration- intensity chart are roughly parallel to the regional threshold proposed by Guzzetti et al. (2007), which in our case indicates a landslide probability of about 0.1. The abrupt increase of landslide probability in the duration-intensity plane indicates a radical change of state of the system, proving the existence of a real physical threshold.
Whiting, Alan B
2014-01-01
Professor Sir Karl Popper (1902-1994) was one of the most influential philosophers of science of the twentieth century, best known for his doctrine of falsifiability. His axiomatic formulation of probability, however, is unknown to current scientists, though it is championed by several current philosophers of science as superior to the familiar version. Applying his system to problems identified by himself and his supporters, it is shown that it does not have some features he intended and does not solve the problems they have identified.
Probably Almost Bayes Decisions
Anoulova, S.; Fischer, Paul; Poelt, S.
1996-01-01
discriminant functions for this purpose. We analyze this approach for different classes of distribution functions of Boolean features:kth order Bahadur-Lazarsfeld expansions andkth order Chow expansions. In both cases, we obtain upper bounds for the required sample size which are small polynomials...... in the relevant parameters and which match the lower bounds known for these classes. Moreover, the learning algorithms are efficient.......In this paper, we investigate the problem of classifying objects which are given by feature vectors with Boolean entries. Our aim is to "(efficiently) learn probably almost optimal classifications" from examples. A classical approach in pattern recognition uses empirical estimations of the Bayesian...
Sirca, Simon
2016-01-01
This book is designed as a practical and intuitive introduction to probability, statistics and random quantities for physicists. The book aims at getting to the main points by a clear, hands-on exposition supported by well-illustrated and worked-out examples. A strong focus on applications in physics and other natural sciences is maintained throughout. In addition to basic concepts of random variables, distributions, expected values and statistics, the book discusses the notions of entropy, Markov processes, and fundamentals of random number generation and Monte-Carlo methods.
Generalized Probability Functions
Alexandre Souto Martinez
2009-01-01
Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.
UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL probability wheel
Sheng-Cheng Huang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an “investigator” and a “participant”, about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.
Chiesa, L M; Labella, G F; Giorgi, A; Panseri, S; Pavlovic, R; Bonacci, S; Arioli, F
2016-07-01
Bee products, such as honey, are widely consumed as food and consumer interest is currently oriented towards organic foods. Regarding this, the European Commission establishes that the qualification of organic honey and other beekeeping products as being from organic production is closely bound with the characteristics of hive treatments as well as the quality of the environment. Agricultural contamination with pesticides is a challenging problem that needs to be fully addressed, in particular in the field of organic production systems. In this study, the occurrence of different classes of contaminants selected as representative of potential contamination sources were investigated in 59 organic honeys: organochlorines, OCs; organophosphates, OPs; polychlorobiphenyls, PCBs and polybromodiphenylethers, PBDEs. A method based on Accelerated Solvent Extraction with "in line" clean-up and GC-MS/MS detection was developed to detect contaminants. Residues of many pesticides were found in most of the samples investigated. The majority of honey samples contained at least one of the pesticides, even if their concentrations were found to be lower than its MRL. Diazinon, Mevinphos, Coumaphos, Chlorpyrifos and Quinoxyfen were the residues frequently detected in samples coming from the apple and citrus orchard areas. Furthermore, the results of the present study show that the presence of the residue in organic honey may also be affected by the geographical area (e.g. the presence of an agricultural system) confirming honey bee and beehive matrices as appropriate sentinels for monitoring contamination in the environment. The optimised method proved to be simple and rapid, requiring small sample sizes and minimising solvent consumption, due to the ASE having an "in line" clean-up step. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Valószínűség, esély, relatív súlyok. Opciók és reálopciók (Probability, chance, relative weights)
Száz, János
2011-01-01
There is a long debate (going back to Keynes) how to interpret the concept of probability in economics, in business decisions, in finance. Iván Bélyácz suggested that the Black–Scholes– Merton analysis of fi nancial derivatives has a contribution to this risk vs. uncertainty debate. This article tries to interpret this suggestion, from the viewpoint of traded options, real options, Arrow–Debreu model, Heath–Jarrow–Morton model, insurance business. The article suggests making clear di...
Effect of soil properties on the determination of riverbank erosion probability
Karatzas, George; Varouchakis, Emmanouil
2016-04-01
Riverbank erosion is a natural geomorphological process that affects the fluvial environment. The most important issue concerning riverbank erosion is the identification of the vulnerable locations. An alternative to the common hydrodynamic models to predict vulnerable locations is to quantify the probability of erosion occurrence. This can be achieved by identifying the underlying relations between riverbank erosion and the riverbank soil properties. Thus, riverbank erosion can be determined by a statistical methodology using independent variables that are considered to affect the erosion process. The impact of such variables may vary spatially, therefore, a non-stationary regression model is preferred instead of a stationary equivalent. Locally Weighted Logistic Regression (LWLR) is applied to predict the probability of presence or absence of erosion at the riverbanks of a river section. The erosion occurrence probability can be calculated in conjunction with the model deviance regarding the independent variables tested. The developed statistical model is applied to the Koiliaris River Basin on the island of Crete, Greece. The proposed statistical model is a useful tool that quantifies the erosion probability along the riverbanks and can be used to assist managing erosion and flooding events.
A study of oligonucleotide occurrence distributions in DNA coding segments.
Castrignanò, T; Colosimo, A; Morante, S; Parisi, V; Rossi, G C
1997-02-21
In this paper we present a general strategy designed to study the occurrence frequency distributions of oligonucleotides in DNA coding segments and to deal with the problem of detecting possible patterns of genomic compositional inhomogeneities and disuniformities. Identifying specific tendencies or peculiar deviations in the distributions of the effective occurrence frequencies of oligonucleotides, with respect to what can be a priori expected, is of the greatest importance in biology. Differences between expected and actual distributions may in fact suggest or confirm the existence of specific biological mechanisms related to them. Similarly, a marked deviation in the occurrence frequency of an oligonucleotide may suggest that it belongs to the class of so-called "DNA signal (target) sequences". The approach we have elaborated is innovative in various aspects. Firstly, the analysis of the genomic data is carried out in the light of the observation that the distribution of the four nucleotides along the coding regions of the genoma is biased by the existence of a well-defined "reading frame". Secondly, the "experimental" numbers found by counting the occurrences of the various oligonucleotide sequences are appropriately corrected for the many kinds of mistakes and redundancies present in the available genetic Data Bases. A methodologically significant further improvement of our approach over the existing searching strategies is represented by the fact that, in order to decide whether or not the (corrected) "experimental" value of the occurrence frequency of a given oligonucleotide is within statistical expectations, a measure of the strength of the selective pressure, having acted on it in the course of the evolution, is assigned to the sequence, in a way that takes into account both the value of the "experimental" occurrence frequency of the sequence and the magnitude of the probability that this number might be the result of statistical fluctuations. If the
夏秦; 王志文; 刘璐
2012-01-01
针对局部行为特征信息偏少而使得僵尸网络行为难以全面追踪的问题,提出了一种基于域名共现行为的僵尸网络行为追踪方法.该方法通过域名共现评分算法计算待测域名与已知僵尸域名的域名共现行为来追踪其他僵尸域名,进而发现更多的僵尸主机；为提高域名评分准确性,还提出了过滤基于网络地址转换的主机域名访问、空间区分单个僵尸网络,以及基于观测时长共现行为统计3项改进措施.采集西安交通大学网络域名服务器的域名查询流量作为数据源进行了实验和测试,结果表明:基于改进的域名评分措施不仅将待测域名数量降为原来的1/4,且计算出的前10名域名共现评分更加合理,提高了追踪僵尸主机的准确性.%Botnet activities can't be tracked entirely with traditional methods because of the deficiency of information in local behavioral feature. A novel approach on tracking Botnet activity is presented based on co-occurrence relation of domain name system(DNS) queries. An algorithm is utilized to calculate the co-occurrence between undetermined DNS and known Botnet DNS so as to find some other Botnet DNS. Three improved measures are proposed in order to increase the accuracy of evaluating co-occurrence. The three measures are filtering DNS access by network address translation, differentiating individual spatial Botnet and observation time based statistic of co-occurrence. Experiments are carried out with test data of DNS queries collected in the campus network of Xi an Jiaotong University. The results show that some advantages are acquired obviously with the improved measures, such as the number of undetermined DNS can fall to a quarter of traditional method, the co-occurrence acquired is more suitable for the top ten DNS and the accuracy is improved in finding zombies.
UMTRA project list of reportable occurrences
1994-04-01
This UMTRA Project List of Reportable occurrences is provided to facilitate efficient categorization of reportable occurrences. These guidelines have been established in compliance with DOE minimum reporting requirements under DOE Order 5000.3B. Occurrences are arranged into nine groups relating to US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project operations for active sites. These nine groupings are provided for reference to determined whether an occurrence meets reporting requirement criteria in accordance with the minimum reporting requirements. Event groups and significance categories that cannot or will not occur, and that do not apply to UMTRA Project operations, are omitted. Occurrence categorization shall be as follows: Group 1. Facility Condition; Group 2. Environmental; Group 3. Personnel Safety; Group 4. Personnel Radiation Protection; Group 5. Safeguards and Security; Group 6. Transportation; Group 7. Value Basis Reporting; Group 8. Facility Status; and Group 9. Cross-Category Items.
Modulation Based on Probability Density Functions
Williams, Glenn L.
2009-01-01
A proposed method of modulating a sinusoidal carrier signal to convey digital information involves the use of histograms representing probability density functions (PDFs) that characterize samples of the signal waveform. The method is based partly on the observation that when a waveform is sampled (whether by analog or digital means) over a time interval at least as long as one half cycle of the waveform, the samples can be sorted by frequency of occurrence, thereby constructing a histogram representing a PDF of the waveform during that time interval.
Kamila Sobaś
2010-09-01
Full Text Available Background. This study analysed the correlation between characteristic dietary and non-dietary factors of fracture risk in women and mineral density of bone tissue (BMD. Material and methods. The study involved examination of 172 women, aged between 32 and 59. Calcium intake from a daily diet was determined with the use of the semi-quantitative food consumption frequency method. The physical activity of the women was expressed in MET-minutes/week. BMD was determined by double-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA. The frequency of bone fracture and osteoporosis risk factors was determined and a 10-year risk of fracture (RB-10 was individually diagnosed according to the WHO and IOF criteria (2007. A high level of fracture risk (RB-10 > 14% was assumed according to the Johnell’s algorithm [2005]. Results. The most frequent factors of fracture risk in women included: bone pains (76% of the total sample, inadequate calcium intake (43%, smoking (24%, previous fractures (24%, incidence of chronic diseases (22%, menstrual disorders (19%, family history of osteoporosis (17%, low physical activity (15% and the incidence of thyroid disorders (10%. 85% of women had at least one factor of 10-year absolute risk of fracture. None of the examined women consumed a sufficient amount of calcium and the average calcium intake level was low (median of about 400 mg/day. Bone mineral density did not reveal any relationship with current intake of calcium by women, but depended on the consumption of dairy products in the past. Conclusions. Daily consumption of dairy products in childhood and in the school period was conductive to a higher mineral density of bone tissue in women. Advanced age and the occurrence of menstrual disorders were conductive to a lower mineral density of bone tissue in women. Women with low bone mineral density (lower BMD tertile more frequently used supplementation with preparations containing calcium (25% and more often had at least one RB
Measure, integral and probability
Capiński, Marek
2004-01-01
Measure, Integral and Probability is a gentle introduction that makes measure and integration theory accessible to the average third-year undergraduate student. The ideas are developed at an easy pace in a form that is suitable for self-study, with an emphasis on clear explanations and concrete examples rather than abstract theory. For this second edition, the text has been thoroughly revised and expanded. New features include: · a substantial new chapter, featuring a constructive proof of the Radon-Nikodym theorem, an analysis of the structure of Lebesgue-Stieltjes measures, the Hahn-Jordan decomposition, and a brief introduction to martingales · key aspects of financial modelling, including the Black-Scholes formula, discussed briefly from a measure-theoretical perspective to help the reader understand the underlying mathematical framework. In addition, further exercises and examples are provided to encourage the reader to become directly involved with the material.
Probabilities for Solar Siblings
Valtonen, Mauri; Bajkova, A. T.; Bobylev, V. V.; Mylläri, A.
2015-02-01
We have shown previously (Bobylev et al. Astron Lett 37:550-562, 2011) that some of the stars in the solar neighborhood today may have originated in the same star cluster as the Sun, and could thus be called Solar Siblings. In this work we investigate the sensitivity of this result to galactic models and to parameters of these models, and also extend the sample of orbits. There are a number of good candidates for the sibling category, but due to the long period of orbit evolution since the break-up of the birth cluster of the Sun, one can only attach probabilities of membership. We find that up to 10 % (but more likely around 1 %) of the members of the Sun's birth cluster could be still found within 100 pc from the Sun today.
Probabilities for Solar Siblings
Valtonen, M; Bobylev, V V; Myllari, A
2015-01-01
We have shown previously (Bobylev et al 2011) that some of the stars in the Solar neighborhood today may have originated in the same star cluster as the Sun, and could thus be called Solar Siblings. In this work we investigate the sensitivity of this result to Galactic models and to parameters of these models, and also extend the sample of orbits. There are a number of good candidates for the Sibling category, but due to the long period of orbit evolution since the break-up of the birth cluster of the Sun, one can only attach probabilities of membership. We find that up to 10% (but more likely around 1 %) of the members of the Sun's birth cluster could be still found within 100 pc from the Sun today.
Emptiness Formation Probability
Crawford, Nicholas; Ng, Stephen; Starr, Shannon
2016-08-01
We present rigorous upper and lower bounds on the emptiness formation probability for the ground state of a spin-1/2 Heisenberg XXZ quantum spin system. For a d-dimensional system we find a rate of decay of the order {exp(-c L^{d+1})} where L is the sidelength of the box in which we ask for the emptiness formation event to occur. In the {d=1} case this confirms previous predictions made in the integrable systems community, though our bounds do not achieve the precision predicted by Bethe ansatz calculations. On the other hand, our bounds in the case {d ≥ 2} are new. The main tools we use are reflection positivity and a rigorous path integral expansion, which is a variation on those previously introduced by Toth, Aizenman-Nachtergaele and Ueltschi.
Learning unbelievable marginal probabilities
Pitkow, Xaq; Miller, Ken D
2011-01-01
Loopy belief propagation performs approximate inference on graphical models with loops. One might hope to compensate for the approximation by adjusting model parameters. Learning algorithms for this purpose have been explored previously, and the claim has been made that every set of locally consistent marginals can arise from belief propagation run on a graphical model. On the contrary, here we show that many probability distributions have marginals that cannot be reached by belief propagation using any set of model parameters or any learning algorithm. We call such marginals `unbelievable.' This problem occurs whenever the Hessian of the Bethe free energy is not positive-definite at the target marginals. All learning algorithms for belief propagation necessarily fail in these cases, producing beliefs or sets of beliefs that may even be worse than the pre-learning approximation. We then show that averaging inaccurate beliefs, each obtained from belief propagation using model parameters perturbed about some le...
People's conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise).
Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul
2016-09-01
A common view in current psychology is that people estimate probabilities using various 'heuristics' or rules of thumb that do not follow the normative rules of probability theory. We present a model where people estimate conditional probabilities such as P(A|B) (the probability of A given that B has occurred) by a process that follows standard frequentist probability theory but is subject to random noise. This model accounts for various results from previous studies of conditional probability judgment. This model predicts that people's conditional probability judgments will agree with a series of fundamental identities in probability theory whose form cancels the effect of noise, while deviating from probability theory in other expressions whose form does not allow such cancellation. Two experiments strongly confirm these predictions, with people's estimates on average agreeing with probability theory for the noise-cancelling identities, but deviating from probability theory (in just the way predicted by the model) for other identities. This new model subsumes an earlier model of unconditional or 'direct' probability judgment which explains a number of systematic biases seen in direct probability judgment (Costello & Watts, 2014). This model may thus provide a fully general account of the mechanisms by which people estimate probabilities.
The estimation of tree posterior probabilities using conditional clade probability distributions.
Larget, Bret
2013-07-01
In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample.
Savage s Concept of Probability
熊卫
2003-01-01
Starting with personal preference, Savage [3] constructs a foundation theory for probability from the qualitative probability to the quantitative probability and to utility. There are some profound logic connections between three steps in Savage's theory; that is, quantitative concepts properly represent qualitative concepts. Moreover, Savage's definition of subjective probability is in accordance with probability theory, and the theory gives us a rational decision model only if we assume that the weak ...
Mori, Shoji [Yokohama National University, Yokohama 240-8501 (Japan)]. E-mail: morisho@ynu.ac.jp; Fukano, Tohru [Kurume Institute of University, Fukuoka 830-0052 (Japan)]. E-mail: fukanot@cc.kurume-it.ac.jp
2006-05-15
If a flow obstacle such as a spacer is placed in a boiling two-phase flow within a channel, the temperature on the surface of the heating tube is severely affected by the existence of the spacer. Under certain conditions the spacer has a cooling effect, and under other conditions the spacer causes dryout of the cooling water film on the heating surface, resulting in burnout of the tube. The burnout mechanism near the spacer, however, remains unclear. In a previous paper (Fukano, T., Mori, S., Akamatsu, S., Baba, A., 2002. Relation between temperature fluctuation of a heating surface and generation of drypatch caused by a cylindrical spacer in a vertical boiling two-phase upward flow in a narrow annular channel. Nucl. Eng. Des. 217, 81-90), we reported that the disturbance wave has a significant effect on dryout occurrence. Therefore, in the present paper, the relation between dryout, burnout occurrence, and interval between two successive disturbance waves obtained from the differential pressure fluctuation caused by the disturbance waves passing by a spacer, is further discussed in detail.
Ishida, Mitsuaki; Hodohara, Keiko; Yoshida, Keiko; Kagotani, Akiko; Iwai, Muneo; Yoshii, Miyuki; Okuno, Hiroko; Horinouchi, Akiko; Nakanishi, Ryota; Harada, Ayumi; Yoshida, Takashi; Okabe, Hidetoshi
2013-01-01
IgG4-related sclerosing disease is an established disease entity with characteristic clinicopathological features. Recently, the association between IgG4-related sclerosing disease and the risk of malignancies has been suggested. IgG4-related autoimmune pancreatitis with pancreatic cancer has been reported. Further, a few cases of extraocular malignant lymphoma in patients with IgG4-related sclerosing disease have also been documented. Herein, we describe the first documented case of anaplastic large cell lymphoma (ALCL) following IgG4-related autoimmune pancreatitis and cholecystitis and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). A 61-year-old Japanese male, with a past history of DLBCL, was detected with swelling of the pancreas and tumorous lesions in the gallbladder. Histopathological study of the resected gallbladder specimen revealed diffuse lymphoplasmacytic infiltration with fibrosclerosis in the entire gallbladder wall. Eosinophilic infiltration and obliterative phlebitis were also noted. Immunohistochemically, many IgG4-positive plasma cells had infiltrated into the lesion, and the ratio of IgG4/IgG-positive plasma cells was 71.6%. Accordingly, a diagnosis of IgG4-related cholecystitis was made. Seven months later, he presented with a painful tumor in his left parotid gland. Histopathological study demonstrated diffuse or cohesive sheet-like proliferation of large-sized lymphoid cells with rich slightly eosinophilic cytoplasm and irregular-shaped large nuclei. These lymphoid cells were positive for CD30, CD4, and cytotoxic markers, but negative for CD3 and ALK. Therefore, a diagnosis of ALK-negative ALCL was made. It has been suggested that the incidence of malignant lymphoma may be high in patients with IgG4-related sclerosing disease, therefore, intense medical follow-up is important in patients with this disorder.
Luo, Ruisen; Hui, Dafeng; Miao, Ning; Liang, Chuan; Wells, Nicholas
2017-05-01
Fire plays a significant role in global atmosphere and biosphere carbon and nutrient cycles. Globally, there are substantially different distributions and impacts between fire occurrence and fire intensity. It is prominent to have a thorough investigation of global relationship between fire occurrence and fire intensity for future fire prediction and management. In this study, we proposed an intermediate fire occurrence-intensity (IFOI) hypothesis for the global relationship between fire occurrence and fire intensity, suggesting that fire occurrence changes with fire intensity following a humped relationship. We examined this hypothesis via satellite data from January 2001 to December 2013 at a global scale, and in small and large fire intensity zones, respectively. Furthermore, the fire occurrence and fire intensity relationship was developed among different vegetation types to reveal the changes of parameters and strengths. Finally, the environmental factors (including climatic, hydraulic, biological, and anthropogenic variables) underpinning the fire occurrence and intensity pattern were evaluated for the underlying mechanisms. The results supported our IFOI hypothesis and demonstrated that the humped relationship is driven by different causes among vegetation types. Fire occurrence increases with fire intensity in small fire intensity zones due to alleviation of the factors limiting both fire occurrence and intensity. Beyond a certain fire intensity threshold, fire occurrence is constrained, probably due to the limitation of available fuels. The information generated in this study could be helpful for understanding global variation of fire occurrence and fire intensity due to fire-vegetation-climate-human interactions and facilitating future fire management.
何其慧; 罗文刚; 王翠翠; 孙丽; 毛军军
2011-01-01
区间值序信息系统是单值序信息系统的一种扩充。首先在区间值序信息系统中引出一种新的定义属性对象xj优于xi的概率Pjai,进而在此基础定义α-优势关系和优势类,从而定义了一种新的基于α-优势关系的概率粗糙集模型,继而通过相对熵赋权得到多属性决策问题的综合评价的最优解,最后对皖江城市带的经济发展的5年数据做定量分析,该实例有效地证明了该方法的合理性和科学性。%The interval-valued order information system is a generalized model of a single-valued order information system. At first, a novel definition is introduced based on the interval-valued order information system by defining pya which shows the probability of attribute object xj superior to object zz, and then α-dominance relation and dominance class are defined. So a novel probability rough set modal based on α-dominance relation is constructed. Furthermore, the optimal solution in multiple attributes making-decision has been obtained through the weights which are given by relative entropy. Finally, quantitative analysis of five years data for economic development issue of the cities along the Yangtze River in Anhui province has been made, and then the effectiveness and rationality of the above method are verified.
Principles of failure probability assessment (PoF)
Giribone, R.; Pocachard, M.
2003-07-01
The aim of this paper is to offer some methodological guidance for assessing the probability of getting a failure (PoF) in an item subject to a continuous degradation mechanism and systematic inspection program. It is to be emphasised that this is not the final result of probability assessment: as a matter of fact, given a failure of a certain type, there is not a one to one correspondence between the probability of occurrence of a failure and the probability of having a certain harm of a given intensity. Between the two, there is a need to consider various accidental scenarios, each occurring with a given probability. The final outcome is the product of these two probabilities. (orig.)
Probability state modeling theory.
Bagwell, C Bruce; Hunsberger, Benjamin C; Herbert, Donald J; Munson, Mark E; Hill, Beth L; Bray, Chris M; Preffer, Frederic I
2015-07-01
As the technology of cytometry matures, there is mounting pressure to address two major issues with data analyses. The first issue is to develop new analysis methods for high-dimensional data that can directly reveal and quantify important characteristics associated with complex cellular biology. The other issue is to replace subjective and inaccurate gating with automated methods that objectively define subpopulations and account for population overlap due to measurement uncertainty. Probability state modeling (PSM) is a technique that addresses both of these issues. The theory and important algorithms associated with PSM are presented along with simple examples and general strategies for autonomous analyses. PSM is leveraged to better understand B-cell ontogeny in bone marrow in a companion Cytometry Part B manuscript. Three short relevant videos are available in the online supporting information for both of these papers. PSM avoids the dimensionality barrier normally associated with high-dimensionality modeling by using broadened quantile functions instead of frequency functions to represent the modulation of cellular epitopes as cells differentiate. Since modeling programs ultimately minimize or maximize one or more objective functions, they are particularly amenable to automation and, therefore, represent a viable alternative to subjective and inaccurate gating approaches.
Probability distributions for magnetotellurics
Stodt, John A.
1982-11-01
Estimates of the magnetotelluric transfer functions can be viewed as ratios of two complex random variables. It is assumed that the numerator and denominator are governed approximately by a joint complex normal distribution. Under this assumption, probability distributions are obtained for the magnitude, squared magnitude, logarithm of the squared magnitude, and the phase of the estimates. Normal approximations to the distributions are obtained by calculating mean values and variances from error propagation, and the distributions are plotted with their normal approximations for different percentage errors in the numerator and denominator of the estimates, ranging from 10% to 75%. The distribution of the phase is approximated well by a normal distribution for the range of errors considered, while the distribution of the logarithm of the squared magnitude is approximated by a normal distribution for a much larger range of errors than is the distribution of the squared magnitude. The distribution of the squared magnitude is most sensitive to the presence of noise in the denominator of the estimate, in which case the true distribution deviates significantly from normal behavior as the percentage errors exceed 10%. In contrast, the normal approximation to the distribution of the logarithm of the magnitude is useful for errors as large as 75%.
Statistical physics approach to earthquake occurrence and forecasting
Arcangelis, Lucilla de [Department of Industrial and Information Engineering, Second University of Naples, Aversa (CE) (Italy); Godano, Cataldo [Department of Mathematics and Physics, Second University of Naples, Caserta (Italy); Grasso, Jean Robert [ISTerre, IRD-CNRS-OSUG, University of Grenoble, Saint Martin d’Héres (France); Lippiello, Eugenio, E-mail: eugenio.lippiello@unina2.it [Department of Mathematics and Physics, Second University of Naples, Caserta (Italy)
2016-04-25
There is striking evidence that the dynamics of the Earth crust is controlled by a wide variety of mutually dependent mechanisms acting at different spatial and temporal scales. The interplay of these mechanisms produces instabilities in the stress field, leading to abrupt energy releases, i.e., earthquakes. As a consequence, the evolution towards instability before a single event is very difficult to monitor. On the other hand, collective behavior in stress transfer and relaxation within the Earth crust leads to emergent properties described by stable phenomenological laws for a population of many earthquakes in size, time and space domains. This observation has stimulated a statistical mechanics approach to earthquake occurrence, applying ideas and methods as scaling laws, universality, fractal dimension, renormalization group, to characterize the physics of earthquakes. In this review we first present a description of the phenomenological laws of earthquake occurrence which represent the frame of reference for a variety of statistical mechanical models, ranging from the spring-block to more complex fault models. Next, we discuss the problem of seismic forecasting in the general framework of stochastic processes, where seismic occurrence can be described as a branching process implementing space–time-energy correlations between earthquakes. In this context we show how correlations originate from dynamical scaling relations between time and energy, able to account for universality and provide a unifying description for the phenomenological power laws. Then we discuss how branching models can be implemented to forecast the temporal evolution of the earthquake occurrence probability and allow to discriminate among different physical mechanisms responsible for earthquake triggering. In particular, the forecasting problem will be presented in a rigorous mathematical framework, discussing the relevance of the processes acting at different temporal scales for
Statistical physics approach to earthquake occurrence and forecasting
de Arcangelis, Lucilla; Godano, Cataldo; Grasso, Jean Robert; Lippiello, Eugenio
2016-04-01
There is striking evidence that the dynamics of the Earth crust is controlled by a wide variety of mutually dependent mechanisms acting at different spatial and temporal scales. The interplay of these mechanisms produces instabilities in the stress field, leading to abrupt energy releases, i.e., earthquakes. As a consequence, the evolution towards instability before a single event is very difficult to monitor. On the other hand, collective behavior in stress transfer and relaxation within the Earth crust leads to emergent properties described by stable phenomenological laws for a population of many earthquakes in size, time and space domains. This observation has stimulated a statistical mechanics approach to earthquake occurrence, applying ideas and methods as scaling laws, universality, fractal dimension, renormalization group, to characterize the physics of earthquakes. In this review we first present a description of the phenomenological laws of earthquake occurrence which represent the frame of reference for a variety of statistical mechanical models, ranging from the spring-block to more complex fault models. Next, we discuss the problem of seismic forecasting in the general framework of stochastic processes, where seismic occurrence can be described as a branching process implementing space-time-energy correlations between earthquakes. In this context we show how correlations originate from dynamical scaling relations between time and energy, able to account for universality and provide a unifying description for the phenomenological power laws. Then we discuss how branching models can be implemented to forecast the temporal evolution of the earthquake occurrence probability and allow to discriminate among different physical mechanisms responsible for earthquake triggering. In particular, the forecasting problem will be presented in a rigorous mathematical framework, discussing the relevance of the processes acting at different temporal scales for different
A simple physical model for deep moonquake occurrence times
Weber, R.C.; Bills, B.G.; Johnson, C.L.
2010-01-01
The physical process that results in moonquakes is not yet fully understood. The periodic occurrence times of events from individual clusters are clearly related to tidal stress, but also exhibit departures from the temporal regularity this relationship would seem to imply. Even simplified models that capture some of the relevant physics require a large number of variables. However, a single, easily accessible variable - the time interval I(n) between events - can be used to reveal behavior not readily observed using typical periodicity analyses (e.g., Fourier analyses). The delay-coordinate (DC) map, a particularly revealing way to display data from a time series, is a map of successive intervals: I(n+. 1) plotted vs. I(n). We use a DC approach to characterize the dynamics of moonquake occurrence. Moonquake-like DC maps can be reproduced by combining sequences of synthetic events that occur with variable probability at tidal periods. Though this model gives a good description of what happens, it has little physical content, thus providing only little insight into why moonquakes occur. We investigate a more mechanistic model. In this study, we present a series of simple models of deep moonquake occurrence, with consideration of both tidal stress and stress drop during events. We first examine the behavior of inter-event times in a delay-coordinate context, and then examine the output, in that context, of a sequence of simple models of tidal forcing and stress relief. We find, as might be expected, that the stress relieved by moonquakes influences their occurrence times. Our models may also provide an explanation for the opposite-polarity events observed at some clusters. ?? 2010.
RANDOM VARIABLE WITH FUZZY PROBABILITY
吕恩琳; 钟佑明
2003-01-01
Mathematic description about the second kind fuzzy random variable namely the random variable with crisp event-fuzzy probability was studied. Based on the interval probability and using the fuzzy resolution theorem, the feasible condition about a probability fuzzy number set was given, go a step further the definition arid characters of random variable with fuzzy probability ( RVFP ) and the fuzzy distribution function and fuzzy probability distribution sequence of the RVFP were put forward. The fuzzy probability resolution theorem with the closing operation of fuzzy probability was given and proved. The definition and characters of mathematical expectation and variance of the RVFP were studied also. All mathematic description about the RVFP has the closing operation for fuzzy probability, as a result, the foundation of perfecting fuzzy probability operation method is laid.
Laboratory-Tutorial activities for teaching probability
Wittmann, M C; Morgan, J T; Feeley, Roger E.; Morgan, Jeffrey T.; Wittmann, Michael C.
2006-01-01
We report on the development of students' ideas of probability and probability density in a University of Maine laboratory-based general education physics course called Intuitive Quantum Physics. Students in the course are generally math phobic with unfavorable expectations about the nature of physics and their ability to do it. We describe a set of activities used to teach concepts of probability and probability density. Rudimentary knowledge of mechanics is needed for one activity, but otherwise the material requires no additional preparation. Extensions of the activities include relating probability density to potential energy graphs for certain "touchstone" examples. Students have difficulties learning the target concepts, such as comparing the ratio of time in a region to total time in all regions. Instead, they often focus on edge effects, pattern match to previously studied situations, reason about necessary but incomplete macroscopic elements of the system, use the gambler's fallacy, and use expectati...
Sokolowska-Köhler, W; Schönian, G; Bollmann, R; Schubert, A; Parschau, J; Seeberg, A; Presber, W
1997-05-01
The presence of S and F1C/S-related fimbrial determinants was determined in 462 E. coli strains obtained from different extraintestinal infections and in 162 control isolates of E. coli by using two different DNA probes: an oligonucleotide probe consisting of three oligonucleotides that bind specifically to the S adhesin gene and a polynucleotide probe which is not able to distinguish between S, F1C, and S-related sequences. The expression of S and F1C phenotypes was tested by dot enzyme immunoassay with the corresponding monoclonal antibodies. S fimbriae genotypes were observed more frequently in septic (25%) and urinary (12%) isolates of E. coli than in faecal and water isolates (1%) and often occurred together with O2, O6, O18 and O83 antigens. F1C/S-related fimbrial DNA was detected with a higher frequency in UTI isolates (26%) than in septic (16%) and faecal (10%) isolates and was most frequently associated with O4, O6, and O75 serotypes. Since the production of S and F1C fimbriae was comparatively rare in all clinical and control isolates of E. coli, DNA hybridization assays which allow the sensitive and specific detection of fimbrial determinants even in the absence of their expression are preferable to phenotypic assays.
Kamil M Szafranski
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Reducing conditions with elevated sulphide and methane concentrations in ecosystems such as hydrothermal vents, cold seeps or organic falls, are suitable for chemosynthetic primary production. Understanding processes driving bacterial diversity, colonization and dispersal is of prime importance for deep-sea microbial ecology. This study provides a detailed characterization of bacterial assemblages colonizing plant-derived substrates using a standardised approach over a geographic area spanning the North-East Atlantic and Mediterranean. Wood and alfalfa substrates in colonization devices were deployed for different periods at 8 deep-sea chemosynthesis-based sites in 4 distinct geographic areas. Pyrosequencing of a fragment of the 16S rRNA-encoding gene was used to describe bacterial communities. Colonization occurred within the first 14 days. The diversity was higher in samples deployed for more than 289 days. After 289 days, no relation was observed between community richness and deployment duration, suggesting that diversity may have reached saturation sometime in between. Communities in long-term deployments were different, and their composition was mainly influenced by the geographical location where devices were deployed. Numerous sequences related to horizontally-transmitted chemosynthetic symbionts of metazoans were identified. Their potential status as free-living forms of these symbionts was evaluated based on sequence similarity and monophyly with demonstrated symbionts. Results suggest that some free-living forms of metazoan symbionts or their close relatives, such as the epsilonproteobacterium associated with the shrimp Rimicaris exoculata, are efficient colonizers of plant substrates at vents and seeps.
Szafranski, Kamil M; Deschamps, Philippe; Cunha, Marina R; Gaudron, Sylvie M; Duperron, Sébastien
2015-01-01
Reducing conditions with elevated sulfide and methane concentrations in ecosystems such as hydrothermal vents, cold seeps or organic falls, are suitable for chemosynthetic primary production. Understanding processes driving bacterial diversity, colonization and dispersal is of prime importance for deep-sea microbial ecology. This study provides a detailed characterization of bacterial assemblages colonizing plant-derived substrates using a standardized approach over a geographic area spanning the North-East Atlantic and Mediterranean. Wood and alfalfa substrates in colonization devices were deployed for different periods at 8 deep-sea chemosynthesis-based sites in four distinct geographic areas. Pyrosequencing of a fragment of the 16S rRNA-encoding gene was used to describe bacterial communities. Colonization occurred within the first 14 days. The diversity was higher in samples deployed for more than 289 days. After 289 days, no relation was observed between community richness and deployment duration, suggesting that diversity may have reached saturation sometime in between. Communities in long-term deployments were different, and their composition was mainly influenced by the geographical location where devices were deployed. Numerous sequences related to horizontally-transmitted chemosynthetic symbionts of metazoans were identified. Their potential status as free-living forms of these symbionts was evaluated based on sequence similarity with demonstrated symbionts. Results suggest that some free-living forms of metazoan symbionts or their close relatives, such as Epsilonproteobacteria associated with the shrimp Rimicaris exoculata, are efficient colonizers of plant substrates at vents and seeps.
Occurrence rate of extreme magnetic storms
Yermolaev, Yu I; Nikolaeva, N S; Yermolaev, M Yu
2013-01-01
Statistical analysis of occurrence rate of magnetic storms induced by different types of interplanetary drivers is made on the basis of OMNI data for period 1976-2000. Using our catalog of large scale types of solar wind streams we study storms induced by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) (separately magnetic clouds (MC) and Ejecta) and both types of compressed regions: corotating interaction regions (CIR) and Sheaths. For these types of drivers we calculate integral probabilities of storms with minimum Dst < -50, -70, -100, -150, and -200 nT. The highest probability in this interval of Dst is observed for MC, probabilities for other drivers are 3-10 times lower than for MC. Extrapolation of obtained results to extreme storms shows that such a magnetic storm as Carrington storm in 1859 with Dst = -1760 nT is observed on the Earth with frequency 1 event during ~500 year.
Probability distribution relationships
Yousry Abdelkader
2013-05-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we are interesting to show the most famous distributions and their relations to the other distributions in collected diagrams. Four diagrams are sketched as networks. The first one is concerned to the continuous distributions and their relations. The second one presents the discrete distributions. The third diagram is depicted the famous limiting distributions. Finally, the Balakrishnan skew-normal density and its relationship with the other distributions are shown in the fourth diagram.
Anderson, C.W.; Rinella, F.A.; Rounds, S.A.
1996-01-01
Between 1992 and 1994, the U.S.Geological Survey conducted a study of trace elements and organic compounds in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, as part of the Willamette River Basin Water Quality Study. Low-level analyses were performed for trace elements, volatile organic compounds, organochlorine compounds, and pesticides. Overall, 94 water samples were collected from 40 sites, during predominantly high-flow conditions, representing urban, agricultural, mixed, and forested land uses. Although most observed concentrations were relatively low, some exceedances of water-quality criteria for acute and chronic toxicity and for the protection of human health were observed.
Estimating the Probability of Elevated Nitrate Concentrations in Ground Water in Washington State
Frans, Lonna M.
2008-01-01
Logistic regression was used to relate anthropogenic (manmade) and natural variables to the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations in ground water in Washington State. Variables that were analyzed included well depth, ground-water recharge rate, precipitation, population density, fertilizer application amounts, soil characteristics, hydrogeomorphic regions, and land-use types. Two models were developed: one with and one without the hydrogeomorphic regions variable. The variables in both models that best explained the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations (defined as concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen greater than 2 milligrams per liter) were the percentage of agricultural land use in a 4-kilometer radius of a well, population density, precipitation, soil drainage class, and well depth. Based on the relations between these variables and measured nitrate concentrations, logistic regression models were developed to estimate the probability of nitrate concentrations in ground water exceeding 2 milligrams per liter. Maps of Washington State were produced that illustrate these estimated probabilities for wells drilled to 145 feet below land surface (median well depth) and the estimated depth to which wells would need to be drilled to have a 90-percent probability of drawing water with a nitrate concentration less than 2 milligrams per liter. Maps showing the estimated probability of elevated nitrate concentrations indicated that the agricultural regions are most at risk followed by urban areas. The estimated depths to which wells would need to be drilled to have a 90-percent probability of obtaining water with nitrate concentrations less than 2 milligrams per liter exceeded 1,000 feet in the agricultural regions; whereas, wells in urban areas generally would need to be drilled to depths in excess of 400 feet.
Singh, Gundeep; Garg, Shalini; Damle, Satyawan Gangaramji; Dhindsa, Abhishek; Kaur, Ambreen; Singla, Shilpy
2014-09-01
Oral and dental injuries contribute to a major part of sports related injuries in children. Trauma occurring in developing years disrupts normal social functioning and brings about a major impact on quality of life due to their cumulative effect. To assess the prevalence and causes of various sports related traumatic orodental injuries among 8 to 16 year school students along with identifying the associated risk factors in North India. A cross sectional study consisting of high school students of different organized sports teams aged 8-16 years was carried out in geographical area of north India. The students were selected by multistage cluster sampling methodology. 1105 students from 19 school teams (sports teams) and sports academies participated in study through structured interview and clinical examination in different sports situations. 30.3% (n = 335) of students suffered from orodental injuries. A higher number of girls had injury (32%) than boys (29%), though the difference was not significant. Most of the students suffered from soft tissue injuries (48%) followed by tooth fractures (43%). Maximum numbers of injuries were reported in high velocity (44.1%) and medium intensity sports (46.6%) (P badminton (6.1%) (P coaching. Only 6% of boys and 2% of girls used mouthguards. The result of the present study confirmed that students participating in different organized sports at high school level are at a very high risk of getting orodental injury. Hence knowledge and education regarding prevention of traumatic injuries is of paramount importance.
Distribution probability of large-scale landslides in central Nepal
Timilsina, Manita; Bhandary, Netra P.; Dahal, Ranjan Kumar; Yatabe, Ryuichi
2014-12-01
Large-scale landslides in the Himalaya are defined as huge, deep-seated landslide masses that occurred in the geological past. They are widely distributed in the Nepal Himalaya. The steep topography and high local relief provide high potential for such failures, whereas the dynamic geology and adverse climatic conditions play a key role in the occurrence and reactivation of such landslides. The major geoscientific problems related with such large-scale landslides are 1) difficulties in their identification and delineation, 2) sources of small-scale failures, and 3) reactivation. Only a few scientific publications have been published concerning large-scale landslides in Nepal. In this context, the identification and quantification of large-scale landslides and their potential distribution are crucial. Therefore, this study explores the distribution of large-scale landslides in the Lesser Himalaya. It provides simple guidelines to identify large-scale landslides based on their typical characteristics and using a 3D schematic diagram. Based on the spatial distribution of landslides, geomorphological/geological parameters and logistic regression, an equation of large-scale landslide distribution is also derived. The equation is validated by applying it to another area. For the new area, the area under the receiver operating curve of the landslide distribution probability in the new area is 0.699, and a distribution probability value could explain > 65% of existing landslides. Therefore, the regression equation can be applied to areas of the Lesser Himalaya of central Nepal with similar geological and geomorphological conditions.
Context effects in the measurement of optimism in probability judgment
Otten, W.; van der Pligt, J.
1996-01-01
Examined the role of contextual information such as comparison standard on self-other probability judgments regarding the occurrence of negative life events, which tend to be characterized by optimism. In Study 1, 80 undergraduates (mean age 19.5 yrs) completed a questionnaire on preventive
Cursive and gelastic epilepsy: probable sequelae of physical abuse
Woon, T. H.; Vignaendra, V.
1978-01-01
An abandoned 8-year-old male child, who was subjected to physical abuse, presented with abnormal behaviour and focal seizures. The focal seizures included involuntary running attacks (epilepsia cursiva) and uncontrollable laughter (gelastic epilepsy). The occurrence of cursive and gelastic seizures in the same patient is extremely rare. These fits were probably a late sequel of head trauma.
Oo Tun
2001-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background To present a protocol of a prospective, cohort study in which four groups of spinal cord injury (SCI patients will participate. (Patients with indwelling urethral catheter; patients who perform intermittent catheterisation without wearing a penile sheath; patients who perform intermittent catheterisation and wear penile sheath as well; and patients with penile sheath drainage. Objectives (1 What is the incidence of symptomatic urinary infection in men with spinal cord injury who use different types of bladder drainage? (2 Which are predisposing factors for the occurrence of symptomatic urinary infection in men with spinal cord injury who practise different methods of bladder drainage? (3 What is the incidence of catheter and urinary drainage system-related adverse events in the four groups of SCI patients? Patients The criteria for inclusion are as follow: (1 Male patients with neuropathic bladder due to spinal cord injury, who are registered with the Regional Spinal Injuries Centre, Southport, England. (2 Age: 18 years or above. (3 Patients who are willing to give informed consent for participation in the study. (4 Patients willing to be contacted every two weeks by a staff of the spinal unit for 36 months. (5 Patients who are willing to maintain an accurate record of adverse events related to urinary catheter and urinary drainage system and predisposing factors for the occurrence of symptomatic urinary infection. (6 Patients, who are stabilised in a particular method of bladder drainage, and therefore, unlikely to make a permanent change in the method of bladder drainage (e.g. from penile sheath drainage to the use of long-term indwelling catheter during a foreseeable future. Methods The participants will be observed for a period of 36 months. A staff of the spinal injuries unit will contact the participants by telephone every two weeks on a mutually agreed day and time. The information obtained during this standardised
Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith
2013-01-01
Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.
Pandolfo, Tamara J.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Cope, W. Gregory; Heise, Ryan J.; Nichols, Robert B.; Pacifici, Krishna
2016-01-01
Conservation of freshwater unionid mussels presents unique challenges due to their distinctive life cycle, cryptic occurrence and imperilled status. Relevant ecological information is urgently needed to guide their management and conservation.We adopted a modelling approach, which is a novel application to freshwater mussels to enhance inference on rare species, by borrowing data among species in a hierarchical framework to conduct the most comprehensive occurrence analysis for freshwater mussels to date. We incorporated imperfect detection to more accurately examine effects of biotic and abiotic factors at multiple scales on the occurrence of 14 mussel species and the entire assemblage of the Tar River Basin of North Carolina, U.S.A.The single assemblage estimate of detection probability for all species was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.36–0.47) with no species- or site-specific detection effects identified. We empirically observed 15 mussel species in the basin but estimated total species richness at 21 (95% CI, 16–24) when accounting for imperfect detection.Mean occurrence probability among species ranged from 0.04 (95% CI, 0.01–0.16) for Alasmidonta undulata, an undescribed Lampsilis sp., and Strophitus undulatus to 0.67 (95% CI, 0.42–0.86) for Elliptio icterina. Median occurrence probability among sites was <0.30 for all species with the exception of E. icterina. Site occurrence probability generally related to mussel conservation status, with reduced occurrence for endangered and threatened species.Catchment-scale abiotic variables (stream power, agricultural land use) and species traits (brood time, host specificity, tribe) influenced the occurrence of mussel assemblages more than reach- or microhabitat-scale features.Our findings reflect the complexity of mussel ecology and indicate that habitat restoration alone may not be adequate for mussel conservation. Catchment-scale management can benefit an entire assemblage, but species-specific strategies may be
Osawa, R; Okitsu, T; Morozumi, H; Yamai, S
1996-02-01
A total of 132 strains of V. parahaemolyticus isolated from patients and from the suspected causal food items of past food poisoning cases occurring in Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, were examined for the ability to hydrolyze urea, with specific reference to the presence of the thermostable direct hemolysin gene (tdh) and the gene for thermostable direct hemolysin-related hemolysin (trh). Ten strains belonging to five different O-antigen serotypes were positive for urea hydrolysis (UH+), and four of these strains did not carry tdh. A total of 106 strains carried tdh, but less than 6% of them were UH+, whereas all trh-carrying strains were UH+. The evidence suggests that urea hydrolysis is not a reliable marker for identifying tdh-carrying V. parahaemolyticus strains in Japan (the Pacific Northeast) but may be a marker for trh-carrying strains.
Introduction to probability with R
Baclawski, Kenneth
2008-01-01
FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable
D. Patella
2002-06-01
Full Text Available We present the results of the application of the tensor resistivity method to the assessment of the state of conservation of some architectonic features of the S.Giovanni a Carbonara monumental monastery (Naples, Italy and to the recognition of buried remains in the archaeological site of the roman Port of Claudius at Fiumicino (Rome, Italy. The 3D tomographic approach, based on the concept of resistivity anomaly source occurrence probability, has been used for the analysis of the invariant parameter related to the trace of the determinant of the apparent resistivity tensor.
[Probable flora: an expression mean of ecological gradients in France].
Garbolino, Emmanuel; De Ruffray, Patrice; Brisse, Henry; Grandjouan, Gilles
2013-02-01
The application of the criterion of fidelity of plants to plants over four millions botanical observations in France is considered to characterize the ecology of 215,000 phytosociological surveys. Among those discriminant plants, some are missing of the surveys, but they can have a certain probability of occurrence: these plants are called "probable plants" and they represent the "probable flora" of a territory. The study of their geographical distribution shows ecological gradients of flora across France in a better way than only considering the botanical observations. In fact, this method mitigates the discontinuities of taxa observations whose absence may be due to historical and/or anthropogenic factors.
Ross, Sheldon
2014-01-01
A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.
Conditionals, probability, and belief revision
Voorbraak, F.
1989-01-01
A famous result obtained in the mid-seventies by David Lewis shows that a straightforward interpretation of probabilities of conditionals as conditional probabilities runs into serious trouble. In this paper we try to circumvent this trouble by defining extensions of probability functions, called
Determination of riverbank erosion probability using Locally Weighted Logistic Regression
Ioannidou, Elena; Flori, Aikaterini; Varouchakis, Emmanouil A.; Giannakis, Georgios; Vozinaki, Anthi Eirini K.; Karatzas, George P.; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos
2015-04-01
Riverbank erosion is a natural geomorphologic process that affects the fluvial environment. The most important issue concerning riverbank erosion is the identification of the vulnerable locations. An alternative to the usual hydrodynamic models to predict vulnerable locations is to quantify the probability of erosion occurrence. This can be achieved by identifying the underlying relations between riverbank erosion and the geomorphological or hydrological variables that prevent or stimulate erosion. Thus, riverbank erosion can be determined by a regression model using independent variables that are considered to affect the erosion process. The impact of such variables may vary spatially, therefore, a non-stationary regression model is preferred instead of a stationary equivalent. Locally Weighted Regression (LWR) is proposed as a suitable choice. This method can be extended to predict the binary presence or absence of erosion based on a series of independent local variables by using the logistic regression model. It is referred to as Locally Weighted Logistic Regression (LWLR). Logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used for predicting the outcome of a categorical dependent variable (e.g. binary response) based on one or more predictor variables. The method can be combined with LWR to assign weights to local independent variables of the dependent one. LWR allows model parameters to vary over space in order to reflect spatial heterogeneity. The probabilities of the possible outcomes are modelled as a function of the independent variables using a logistic function. Logistic regression measures the relationship between a categorical dependent variable and, usually, one or several continuous independent variables by converting the dependent variable to probability scores. Then, a logistic regression is formed, which predicts success or failure of a given binary variable (e.g. erosion presence or absence) for any value of the independent variables. The
Probabilistic Causation without Probability.
Holland, Paul W.
The failure of Hume's "constant conjunction" to describe apparently causal relations in science and everyday life has led to various "probabilistic" theories of causation of which the study by P. C. Suppes (1970) is an important example. A formal model that was developed for the analysis of comparative agricultural experiments…
Grinn-Gofroń, Agnieszka; Rapiejko, Piotr
2009-08-01
The concentration of airborne spores of Cladosporium spp. and Alternaria spp. has been investigated at three monitoring stations situated along the west-north and central-east transect in Poland (Szczecin, Olsztyn, Warszawa,) i.e. from a height of 100 m to 149 m above sea level. The aerobiological monitoring of fungal spores was performed by means of three Lanzoni volumetric spore traps. Cladosporium spp. spores were dominant at all the stations. The highest Cladosporium spp. and Alternaria spp. numbers of spores were observed at all the cities in July and August. Statistically significant correlations have been found between the Cladosporium spp. and Alternaria spp. concentration in the air and the mean air temperature, amount of precipitation, air pressure and relative air humidity. The spore count of Cladosporium spp. and Alternaria spp. is determined by the diversity of local flora and weather conditions, especially by the air temperature. The identification of factors, which influence and shape spore concentrations, may significantly improve the current methods of allergy prevention.
Lin, Zhaomiao; Zhang, Xincheng; Wang, Zunxin; Jiang, Yutong; Liu, Zhenghui; Alexander, Danny; Li, Ganghua; Wang, Shaohua; Ding, Yanfeng
2017-02-07
Grain chalkiness is a highly undesirable trait deleterious to rice appearance and milling quality. The physiological and molecular foundation of chalkiness formation is still partially understood, because of the complex interactions between multiple genes and growing environments. We report the untargeted metabolomic analysis of grains from a notched-belly mutant (DY1102) with high percentage of white-belly, which predominantly occurs in the bottom part proximal to the embryo. Metabolites in developing grains were profiled on the composite platforms of UPLC/MS/MS and GC/MS. Sampling times were 5, 10, 15, and 20 days after anthesis, the critical time points for chalkiness formation. A total of 214 metabolites were identified, covering most of the central metabolic pathways and partial secondary pathways including amino acids, carbohydrates, lipids, cofactors, peptides, nucleotides, phytohormones, and secondary metabolites. A comparison of the bottom chalky part and the upper translucent part of developing grains of DY1102 resulted in 180 metabolites related to chalkiness formation. Generally, in comparison to the translucent upper part, the chalky endosperm had lower levels of metabolites regarding carbon and nitrogen metabolism for synthesis of storage starch and protein, which was accompanied by perturbation of pathways participating in scavenging of reactive oxygen species, osmorugulation, cell wall synthesis, and mineral ion homeostasis. Based on these results, metabolic mechanism of chalkiness formation is discussed, with the role of embryo highlighted.
Tadolini, T.; Spizzico, M.
The radon-222 (222Rn) activity in groundwater of the Apulian karstic aquifer in southern Italy is as great as 500 Becquerel per liter (Bq/L) locally. Normal radium-226 (226Ra) activity in the limestone and calcareous dolomites of the aquifer is not enough to explain such a high level. Laboratory investigations identified high 226Ra activity in the "terra rossa," the residuum occupying fissures and cavities in the bedrock, and also the relation between (1) 226Ra-bearing bedrock and "terra rossa" and (2) 222Rn in water. The "terra rossa" is the primary source of the radon in the groundwater. The experimental results show the need to characterize the "terra rossa" of Apulia on the basis of 226Ra activity and also to study the distribution and variations in 222Rn activity over time in the aquifer. Résumé L'activité du radon-222 (222Rn) dans les eaux souterraines de l'aquifère karstique des Pouilles, dans le sud de l'Italie, atteint localement 500 Becquerel par litre (Bq/L). L'activité normale du radium-226 (226Ra) dans les calcaires et dans les calcaires dolomitiques de l'aquifère n'est pas assez élevée pour expliquer des valeurs aussi élevées. Des analyses de laboratoire ont mis en évidence une forte activité en 226Ra dans la terra rossa, remplissage de fissures et de cavités de la roche, ainsi qu'une relation entre (1) la roche et la terra rossa contenant du 226Ra et (2) le 222Rn dans l'eau. La terra rossa est la source primaire de radon dans l'eau souterraine. Les résultats expérimentaux montrent qu'il est nécessaire de caractériser la terra rossa des Pouilles par son activité en 226Ra et d'étudier la distribution et les variations de l'activité en 222Rn au cours du temps dans l'aquifère. Resumen La actividad del radon-222 (222Rn) en el agua subterránea del acuífero cárstico de Apulia, al sur de Italia, alcanza localmente los 500Bq/L. La actividad normal del radio-226 (226Ra) en las calcitas y dolomitas del acuífero no es suficiente para
Cooper, L. B.; Reubi, O.; Dungan, M. A.; Bourdon, B.; Langmuir, C. H.; Turner, S. J.; Schaefer, J. M.
2012-12-01
Magmas erupted from subduction zone volcanoes represent the end products of multiple magmatic processes occurring in the asthenospheric mantle wedge and overlying lithosphere (i.e., fluid addition, melting, assimilation, and crystal fractionation). To resolve the contributions of diverse processes and components, and the relative timing of these events, we have determined U-series activities (U-Th-Ra-Pa) for 60 and 10Be compositions for 20 historic or very young lavas carefully chosen on the basis of major and trace element analyses of 625 samples from six volcanoes in the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone of Chile (37.6-41.1°S: Nevados de Chillán, Antuco, Llaima, Lonquimay, Villarrica, and Osorno). Our dataset demonstrates that each of these volcanoes reflects a unique combination and sequence of magmatic processes that are only revealed through analysis of multiple samples spanning the extent of intra-volcano and intra-eruption chemical variation. Sigmarsson et al. (1990; 2002) identified a regional trend using U-series and Be from mostly single samples, which they interpreted to represent along-strike variations in the flux of slab-derived fluids into the wedge [from 230Th-excess plus 226Ra-deficit plus low 10Be/9Be at Chillán towards progressively higher 238U- and Ra-excesses and 10Be/9Be at Villarrica and Osorno]. These data fall within the much broader array defined by our results, but we infer the operation of assimilation (e.g., Llaima; Reubi et al., 2011) and aging of subduction zone components of variable compositions and proportions in the mantle prior to partial melting as important factors in generating the highly individualized and complex U-series systematics observed at each of these six volcanoes. All of the volcanoes exhibit evidence of assimilation, with the exception of Lonquimay which has undergone mostly closed-system fractional crystallization. At Llaima and Chillán the assimilant is crustal. At Villarica, flux-related melts that dominate in
Mau, David P.; Ziegler, Andrew C.; Porter, Stephen D.; Pope, Larry M.
2004-01-01
Surface water in the Lake Olathe watershed, located in northeast Kansas, was sampled from June 2000 through December 2002 to characterize water-quality conditions in relation to physical properties, major ions, sediment, nutrients, selected trace elements, selected pesticides, fecal indicator bacteria, phytoplankton, and taste-and-odor compounds. In addition, two continuous real-time water-quality monitors were operated?one in Cedar Creek at Highway 56, the main tributary to Lake Olathe, and one in Lake Olathe, a supplemental domestic water supply and recreational resource for the city of Olathe. Median concentrations of dissolved and total forms of nitrogen and phosphorus in samples from Cedar Creek were larger than in samples from Lake Olathe, indicating that nutrients in the watershed were transported to Lake Olathe by Cedar Creek from June 2000 through December 2002. Increased concentrations of total phosphorus in samples from the hypolimnion of Lake Olathe compared to the epilimnion indicated that release of total phosphorus from bottom sediments occurred in the lake. Of the 50 pesticides analyzed in water samples from Cedar Creek and Lake Olathe, 10 pesticides were detected at concentrations greater than 0.01 microgram per liter in samples from Cedar Creek, and 9 pesticides were detected at concentrations greater than 0.01 microgram per liter in Lake Olathe, including four herbicides with concentrations exceeding 1.0 microgram per liter. Atrazine was detected at larger concentrations than any other pesticide in samples from both Cedar Creek and Lake Olathe during 2001 and 2002. Concentrations did not exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water annual average criterion of 3.0 micrograms per liter; however, concentrations in single samples were larger than 3.0 micrograms per liter. Regression analysis was used to assist in the estimation of sediment and chemical loads and yields. The estimated mean orthophosphate load for 2001 and 2002
Tan, Mingxuan; Zhu, Xiaomin; Geng, Mingyang; Zhu, Shifa; Liu, Wei
2017-10-01
Bed variability of sediment-gravity-flow deposits is quite prevalent in deep-marine settings, but it has not been well investigated in lacustrine settings. The depositional characteristics of various event beds are characterized in the North Slope Belt of the Bongor Basin (Chad), using detailed sedimentological, petrographic, geochemical as well as palynological analysis. Four bed types including classical turbidite bed, debrite bed, hybrid event bed, and hyperpycnite bed were distinguished based on their interpreted depositional processes. Variable mud contents of debrite beds and classic turbidite beds show distinct genetic characteristics in four core wells, whilst the high mud content of cohesive debrite interval and the low mud content of turbidite interval in hybrid event bed demonstrate the existence of flow transformation. Generally, several trace element and rare earth element proxy parameters show that these gravity-flow deposits of BS1-1 and D-3 cores are formed in more distal depositional settings than them of BN8 and BNE3 cores, which is also well consistent with sedimentological understandings achieved by seismic facies analysis. Although palynological results show a general hot arid climate during the deposition of the Prosopis Formation, but the climate-sensitive Sr/Cu ratio demonstrates that most sampled turbidite beds are postulated to be formed within a short humid pulse. The multi-approach analysis has illustrated that two potential forming mechanisms (delta-front-failure and flood-related origin) can be derived in different cored wells of such a small lacustrine rift basin. Differentiated flow transformation plays a significant role in the depositional characteristics and heterogenetic distribution of these event deposits.
Bailey, B A; Jennings, J C; Anderson, J D
1997-01-01
A 24-kDa protein that elicits ethylene production and necrosis in leaves of dicotyledonous plants was previously purified from culture filtrates of Fusarium oxysporum Schlechtend:Fr. f.sp. erythroxyli. Antisera to the denatured 24-kDa protein detected 2.5 ng of the 24-kDa protein on Western blots at 100000-fold dilutions. The antisera cross-reacted with a 24-kDa protein on Western blots of culture filtrates from three other F. oxysporum formae speciales. Of seven Fusarium species, only F. oxysporum, F. acuminatum Ellis and Kellerm., and F. avenaceum (Fr.:Fr.) Sacc. isolates produced an antigenically related 24-kDa protein. Although there were differences in the profiles of proteins extracted from stems of coca (Erythroxylum coca var. coca L. Lam.) infected with F. oxysporum f.sp. erythroxyli compared with uninfected stems, antisera to the 24-kDa protein did not cross-react with any proteins from the infected coca stems. For the fungal isolates studied, the best medium tested for production of the 24-kDa protein contained 1% sucrose and 1% asparagine. Biological activity of the F. oxysporum culture filtrates on sweet basil leaves was consistently correlated with the presence of the 24-kDa protein. Production of the 24-kDa protein was limited in cultures containing pectin or cellulose as the primary carbon source, or in cultures lacking sucrose or casamino acids. Water-soluble extracts from coca stems inhibited production of the 24-kDa protein, whereas cellulose and pectin did not. Components produced by the plant may limit production of the 24-kDa protein in infected plant tissue and thereby limit the response of the plant to the fungus. These results suggest the 24-kDa protein does not function in the symptomatic phase of the F. oxysporum f.sp. erythroxylicoca disease interaction.
Associativity and normative credal probability.
Snow, P
2002-01-01
Cox's Theorem is a widely cited motivation for probabilistic models of uncertain belief. The theorem relates the associativity of the logical connectives to that of the arithmetic operations of probability. Recent questions about the correctness of Cox's Theorem have been resolved, but there are new questions about one functional equation used by Cox in 1946. This equation is missing from his later work. Advances in knowledge since 1946 and changes in Cox's research interests explain the equation's disappearance. Other associativity-based motivations avoid functional equations altogether, and so may be more transparently applied to finite domains and discrete beliefs. A discrete counterpart of Cox's Theorem can be assembled from results that have been in the literature since 1959.
Using High-Probability Foods to Increase the Acceptance of Low-Probability Foods
Meier, Aimee E.; Fryling, Mitch J.; Wallace, Michele D.
2012-01-01
Studies have evaluated a range of interventions to treat food selectivity in children with autism and related developmental disabilities. The high-probability instructional sequence is one intervention with variable results in this area. We evaluated the effectiveness of a high-probability sequence using 3 presentations of a preferred food on…
Using High-Probability Foods to Increase the Acceptance of Low-Probability Foods
Meier, Aimee E.; Fryling, Mitch J.; Wallace, Michele D.
2012-01-01
Studies have evaluated a range of interventions to treat food selectivity in children with autism and related developmental disabilities. The high-probability instructional sequence is one intervention with variable results in this area. We evaluated the effectiveness of a high-probability sequence using 3 presentations of a preferred food on…
Analysis of co-occurrence toponyms in web pages based on complex networks
Zhong, Xiang; Liu, Jiajun; Gao, Yong; Wu, Lun
2017-01-01
A large number of geographical toponyms exist in web pages and other documents, providing abundant geographical resources for GIS. It is very common for toponyms to co-occur in the same documents. To investigate these relations associated with geographic entities, a novel complex network model for co-occurrence toponyms is proposed. Then, 12 toponym co-occurrence networks are constructed from the toponym sets extracted from the People's Daily Paper documents of 2010. It is found that two toponyms have a high co-occurrence probability if they are at the same administrative level or if they possess a part-whole relationship. By applying complex network analysis methods to toponym co-occurrence networks, we find the following characteristics. (1) The navigation vertices of the co-occurrence networks can be found by degree centrality analysis. (2) The networks express strong cluster characteristics, and it takes only several steps to reach one vertex from another one, implying that the networks are small-world graphs. (3) The degree distribution satisfies the power law with an exponent of 1.7, so the networks are free-scale. (4) The networks are disassortative and have similar assortative modes, with assortative exponents of approximately 0.18 and assortative indexes less than 0. (5) The frequency of toponym co-occurrence is weakly negatively correlated with geographic distance, but more strongly negatively correlated with administrative hierarchical distance. Considering the toponym frequencies and co-occurrence relationships, a novel method based on link analysis is presented to extract the core toponyms from web pages. This method is suitable and effective for geographical information retrieval.
The Art of Probability Assignment
Dimitrov, Vesselin I
2012-01-01
The problem of assigning probabilities when little is known is analized in the case where the quanities of interest are physical observables, i.e. can be measured and their values expressed by numbers. It is pointed out that the assignment of probabilities based on observation is a process of inference, involving the use of Bayes' theorem and the choice of a probability prior. When a lot of data is available, the resulting probability are remarkable insensitive to the form of the prior. In the oposite case of scarse data, it is suggested that the probabilities are assigned such that they are the least sensitive to specific variations of the probability prior. In the continuous case this results in a probability assignment rule wich calls for minimizing the Fisher information subject to constraints reflecting all available information. In the discrete case, the corresponding quantity to be minimized turns out to be a Renyi distance between the original and the shifted distribution.
Probability in biology: overview of a comprehensive theory of probability in living systems.
Nakajima, Toshiyuki
2013-09-01
Probability is closely related to biological organization and adaptation to the environment. Living systems need to maintain their organizational order by producing specific internal events non-randomly, and must cope with the uncertain environments. These processes involve increases in the probability of favorable events for these systems by reducing the degree of uncertainty of events. Systems with this ability will survive and reproduce more than those that have less of this ability. Probabilistic phenomena have been deeply explored using the mathematical theory of probability since Kolmogorov's axiomatization provided mathematical consistency for the theory. However, the interpretation of the concept of probability remains both unresolved and controversial, which creates problems when the mathematical theory is applied to problems in real systems. In this article, recent advances in the study of the foundations of probability from a biological viewpoint are reviewed, and a new perspective is discussed toward a comprehensive theory of probability for understanding the organization and adaptation of living systems.
Persistence probabilities \\& exponents
Aurzada, Frank
2012-01-01
This article deals with the asymptotic behaviour as $t\\to +\\infty$ of the survival function $P[T > t],$ where $T$ is the first passage time above a non negative level of a random process starting from zero. In many cases of physical significance, the behaviour is of the type $P[T > t]=t^{-\\theta + o(1)}$ for a known or unknown positive parameter $\\theta$ which is called a persistence exponent. The problem is well understood for random walks or L\\'evy processes but becomes more difficult for integrals of such processes, which are more related to physics. We survey recent results and open problems in this field.
Becker, Carol J.
2013-01-01
micrograms per liter in one sample having a concentration of 147 micrograms per liter. Both samples had alkaline pH values, 8.0 and 8.4, respectively. Uranium concentrations ranged from 0.02 to 383 micrograms per liter with 5 of 20 samples exceeding the Maximum Contaminant Level of 30 micrograms per liter; the five wells with uranium concentrations exceeding 30 micrograms per liter had pH values ranging from 8.0 to 8.5. Concentrations of uranium and radon-222 and gross alpha-particle activity showed a positive relation to pH, with the highest concentrations and activity in samples having pH values of 8.0 or above. The groundwater samples contained dissolved oxygen and high concentrations of bicarbonate; these characteristics are also factors in increasing uranium solubility. Concentrations of radium-226 and radium-228 (combined) ranged from 0.03 to 1.7 picocuries per liter, with a median concentration of 0.45 picocuries per liter for all samples. Radon-222 concentrations ranged from 95 to 3,600 picocuries per liter with a median concentration of 261 picocuries per liter. Eight samples having pH values ranging from 8.0 to 8.7 exceeded the proposed Maximum Contaminant Level of 300 picocuries per liter for radon-222. Eight samples exceeded the 15 picocuries per liter Maximum Contaminant Level for gross alpha-particle activity at 72 hours (after sample collection) and at 30 days (after the initial count); those samples had pH values ranging from 8.0 to 8.5. Gross beta-particle activity increased in 15 of 21 samples during the interval from 72 hours to 30 days. The increase in gross beta-particle activity over time probably was caused by the ingrowth and decay of uranium daughter products that emit beta particles. Water-quality data collected for this study indicate that pH values above 8.0 are associated with potentially high concentrations of uranium and radon-222 and high gross alpha-particle activity in the study area. High pH values also are associated with potentially high
Probability of metastable states in Yukawa clusters
Ludwig, Patrick; Kaehlert, Hanno; Baumgartner, Henning; Bonitz, Michael
2008-11-01
Finite strongly coupled systems of charged particles in external traps are of high interest in many fields. Here we analyze the occurrence probabilities of ground- and metastable states of spherical, three-dimensional Yukawa clusters by means of molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations and an analytical method. We find that metastable states can occur with a higher probability than the ground state, thus confirming recent dusty plasma experiments with so-called Yukawa balls [1]. The analytical method [2], based on the harmonic approximation of the potential energy, allows for a very intuitive explanation of the probabilities when combined with the simulation results [3].[1] D. Block, S. Käding, A. Melzer, A. Piel, H. Baumgartner, and M. Bonitz, Physics of Plasmas 15, 040701 (2008)[2] F. Baletto and R. Ferrando, Reviews of Modern Physics 77, 371 (2005)[3] H. Kählert, P. Ludwig, H. Baumgartner, M. Bonitz, D. Block, S. Käding, A. Melzer, and A. Piel, submitted for publication (2008)
Survival probability in patients with liver trauma.
Buci, Skender; Kukeli, Agim
2016-08-01
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to assess the survival probability among patients with liver trauma injury using the anatomical and psychological scores of conditions, characteristics and treatment modes. Design/methodology/approach - A logistic model is used to estimate 173 patients' survival probability. Data are taken from patient records. Only emergency room patients admitted to University Hospital of Trauma (former Military Hospital) in Tirana are included. Data are recorded anonymously, preserving the patients' privacy. Findings - When correctly predicted, the logistic models show that survival probability varies from 70.5 percent up to 95.4 percent. The degree of trauma injury, trauma with liver and other organs, total days the patient was hospitalized, and treatment method (conservative vs intervention) are statistically important in explaining survival probability. Practical implications - The study gives patients, their relatives and physicians ample and sound information they can use to predict survival chances, the best treatment and resource management. Originality/value - This study, which has not been done previously, explores survival probability, success probability for conservative and non-conservative treatment, and success probability for single vs multiple injuries from liver trauma.
Entanglement Mapping VS. Quantum Conditional Probability Operator
Chruściński, Dariusz; Kossakowski, Andrzej; Matsuoka, Takashi; Ohya, Masanori
2011-01-01
The relation between two methods which construct the density operator on composite system is shown. One of them is called an entanglement mapping and another one is called a quantum conditional probability operator. On the base of this relation we discuss the quantum correlation by means of some types of quantum entropy.
Glycoproteins: Occurrence and Significance
Wittmann, Valentin
Protein glycosylation is regarded as the most complex form of post-translational modification leading to a heterogeneous expression of glycoproteins as mixtures of glycoforms. This chapter describes the structure and occurrence of glycoproteins with respect to their glycan chains. Discussed are different carbohydrate-peptide linkages including GPI anchors, common structures of N- and O-glycans, and the structure of glycosaminoglycans contained in proteoglycans. Also covered are the bacterial cell wall polymer peptidoglycan and the glycopeptide antibiotics of the vancomycin group. Properties and functions of the glycans contained in glycoproteins are dealt with in the next chapter of this book.
Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory
Ballentine, Leslie E.
2016-08-01
Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.
Joint Probability of Selected Cloud and Visibility Thresholds Around Frankfurt, Germany.
1983-11-01
by assuming statistical independence, i.e., the probability obtained from the product of the two individual station probabilities. The reduction in...probabilities when considering individual stations versus simultaneous occurrences at two stations is eviden ~t for all data grouped together. For example...Frankfurt/Hahn in this role. The largest range of probabilities within any ad-.erse weather category during the fall and winter was obtained at 04 UT
Encounter Probability of Individual Wave Height
Liu, Z.; Burcharth, H. F.
1998-01-01
wave height corresponding to a certain exceedence probability within a structure lifetime (encounter probability), based on the statistical analysis of long-term extreme significant wave height. Then the design individual wave height is calculated as the expected maximum individual wave height...... associated with the design significant wave height, with the assumption that the individual wave heights follow the Rayleigh distribution. However, the exceedence probability of such a design individual wave height within the structure lifetime is unknown. The paper presents a method for the determination...... of the design individual wave height corresponding to an exceedence probability within the structure lifetime, given the long-term extreme significant wave height. The method can also be applied for estimation of the number of relatively large waves for fatigue analysis of constructions....
Probability landscapes for integrative genomics
Benecke Arndt
2008-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The comprehension of the gene regulatory code in eukaryotes is one of the major challenges of systems biology, and is a requirement for the development of novel therapeutic strategies for multifactorial diseases. Its bi-fold degeneration precludes brute force and statistical approaches based on the genomic sequence alone. Rather, recursive integration of systematic, whole-genome experimental data with advanced statistical regulatory sequence predictions needs to be developed. Such experimental approaches as well as the prediction tools are only starting to become available and increasing numbers of genome sequences and empirical sequence annotations are under continual discovery-driven change. Furthermore, given the complexity of the question, a decade(s long multi-laboratory effort needs to be envisioned. These constraints need to be considered in the creation of a framework that can pave a road to successful comprehension of the gene regulatory code. Results We introduce here a concept for such a framework, based entirely on systematic annotation in terms of probability profiles of genomic sequence using any type of relevant experimental and theoretical information and subsequent cross-correlation analysis in hypothesis-driven model building and testing. Conclusion Probability landscapes, which include as reference set the probabilistic representation of the genomic sequence, can be used efficiently to discover and analyze correlations amongst initially heterogeneous and un-relatable descriptions and genome-wide measurements. Furthermore, this structure is usable as a support for automatically generating and testing hypotheses for alternative gene regulatory grammars and the evaluation of those through statistical analysis of the high-dimensional correlations between genomic sequence, sequence annotations, and experimental data. Finally, this structure provides a concrete and tangible basis for attempting to formulate a
Hidden Variables or Positive Probabilities?
Rothman, T; Rothman, Tony
2001-01-01
Despite claims that Bell's inequalities are based on the Einstein locality condition, or equivalent, all derivations make an identical mathematical assumption: that local hidden-variable theories produce a set of positive-definite probabilities for detecting a particle with a given spin orientation. The standard argument is that because quantum mechanics assumes that particles are emitted in a superposition of states the theory cannot produce such a set of probabilities. We examine a paper by Eberhard who claims to show that a generalized Bell inequality, the CHSH inequality, can be derived solely on the basis of the locality condition, without recourse to hidden variables. We point out that he nonetheless assumes a set of positive-definite probabilities, which supports the claim that hidden variables or "locality" is not at issue here, positive-definite probabilities are. We demonstrate that quantum mechanics does predict a set of probabilities that violate the CHSH inequality; however these probabilities ar...
Applied probability and stochastic processes
Sumita, Ushio
1999-01-01
Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...
On the occurrence of rainstorm damage based on home insurance and weather data
M. H. Spekkers
2014-08-01
Full Text Available Rainstorm damage caused by malfunctioning of urban drainage systems and water intrusion due to defects in the building envelope can be considerable. Little research on this topic focused on the collection of damage data, the understanding of damage mechanisms and the deepening of data analysis methods. In this paper, the relative contribution of different failure mechanisms to the occurrence of rainstorm damage are investigated, as well as the extent to which these mechanisms relate to weather variables. For a case study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, a property level home insurance database of around 3100 water-related damage claims was analysed. Records include comprehensive transcripts of communication between insurer, insured and damage assessment experts, which allowed claims to be classified according to their actual damage cause. Results show that roof and wall leakage is the most frequent failure mechanism causing precipitation-related claims, followed by blocked roof gutters, melting snow and sewer flooding. Claims related to sewer flooding were less present in the data, but are associated with significantly larger claim sizes than claims in the majority class, i.e. roof and wall leakages. Rare events logistic regression analysis revealed that maximum rainfall intensity and rainfall volume are significant predictors for the occurrence probability of precipitation-related claims. Moreover, it was found that claims associated with rainfall intensities smaller than 7–8 mm in a 60 min window are mainly related to failures processes in the private domain, such as roof and wall leakages. For rainfall events that exceed the 7–8 mm h−1 threshold, failure of systems in the public domain, such as sewer systems, start to contribute considerably to the overall occurrence probability of claims. The communication transcripts, however, lacked information to be conclusive about to extent to which sewer-related claims were caused by overloading of
On the occurrence of rainstorm damage based on home insurance and weather data
M. H. Spekkers
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Rainstorm damage caused by the malfunction of urban drainage systems and water intrusion due to defects in the building envelope can be considerable. Little research on this topic focused on the collection of damage data, the understanding of damage mechanisms and the deepening of data analysis methods. In this paper, the relative contribution of different failure mechanisms to the occurrence of rainstorm damage is investigated, as well as the extent to which these mechanisms relate to weather variables. For a case study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, a property level home insurance database of around 3100 water-related damage claims was analysed. The records include comprehensive transcripts of communication between insurer, insured and damage assessment experts, which allowed claims to be classified according to their actual damage cause. The results show that roof and wall leakage is the most frequent failure mechanism causing precipitation-related claims, followed by blocked roof gutters, melting snow and sewer flooding. Claims related to sewer flooding were less present in the data, but are associated with significantly larger claim sizes than claims in the majority class, i.e. roof and wall leakages. Rare events logistic regression analysis revealed that maximum rainfall intensity and rainfall volume are significant predictors for the occurrence probability of precipitation-related claims. Moreover, it was found that claims associated with rainfall intensities smaller than 7–8 mm in a 60-min window are mainly related to failure processes in the private domain, such as roof and wall leakages. For rainfall events that exceed the 7–8 mm h−1 threshold, the failure of systems in the public domain, such as sewer systems, start to contribute considerably to the overall occurrence probability of claims. The communication transcripts, however, lacked information to be conclusive about to which extent sewer-related claims were caused by
PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...
PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...
Occurrence and distribution of Indian primates
Karanth, K.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.
2010-01-01
Global and regional species conservation efforts are hindered by poor distribution data and range maps. Many Indian primates face extinction, but assessments of population status are hindered by lack of reliable distribution data. We estimated the current occurrence and distribution of 15 Indian primates by applying occupancy models to field data from a country-wide survey of local experts. We modeled species occurrence in relation to ecological and social covariates (protected areas, landscape characteristics, and human influences), which we believe are critical to determining species occurrence in India. We found evidence that protected areas positively influence occurrence of seven species and for some species are their only refuge. We found evergreen forests to be more critical for some primates along with temperate and deciduous forests. Elevation negatively influenced occurrence of three species. Lower human population density was positively associated with occurrence of five species, and higher cultural tolerance was positively associated with occurrence of three species. We find that 11 primates occupy less than 15% of the total land area of India. Vulnerable primates with restricted ranges are Golden langur, Arunachal macaque, Pig-tailed macaque, stump-tailed macaque, Phayre's leaf monkey, Nilgiri langur and Lion-tailed macaque. Only Hanuman langur and rhesus macaque are widely distributed. We find occupancy modeling to be useful in determining species ranges, and in agreement with current species ranking and IUCN status. In landscapes where monitoring efforts require optimizing cost, effort and time, we used ecological and social covariates to reliably estimate species occurrence and focus species conservation efforts. ?? Elsevier Ltd.
Duda, David P.; Minnis, Patrick
2009-01-01
Straightforward application of the Schmidt-Appleman contrail formation criteria to diagnose persistent contrail occurrence from numerical weather prediction data is hindered by significant bias errors in the upper tropospheric humidity. Logistic models of contrail occurrence have been proposed to overcome this problem, but basic questions remain about how random measurement error may affect their accuracy. A set of 5000 synthetic contrail observations is created to study the effects of random error in these probabilistic models. The simulated observations are based on distributions of temperature, humidity, and vertical velocity derived from Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) weather analyses. The logistic models created from the simulated observations were evaluated using two common statistical measures of model accuracy, the percent correct (PC) and the Hanssen-Kuipers discriminant (HKD). To convert the probabilistic results of the logistic models into a dichotomous yes/no choice suitable for the statistical measures, two critical probability thresholds are considered. The HKD scores are higher when the climatological frequency of contrail occurrence is used as the critical threshold, while the PC scores are higher when the critical probability threshold is 0.5. For both thresholds, typical random errors in temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity are found to be small enough to allow for accurate logistic models of contrail occurrence. The accuracy of the models developed from synthetic data is over 85 percent for both the prediction of contrail occurrence and non-occurrence, although in practice, larger errors would be anticipated.
Early Pleistocene occurrence of Acheulian technology in North China
Li, Xingwen; Ao, Hong; Dekkers, Mark J.; Roberts, Andrew P.; Zhang, Peng; Lin, Shan; Huang, Weiwen; Hou, Yamei; Zhang, Weihua; An, Zhisheng
2017-01-01
Acheulian tools with their associated level of cognizance heralded a major threshold in the evolution of hominin technology, culture and behavior. Thus, unraveling occurrence ages of Acheulian technology across different regions worldwide constitutes a key aspect of understanding the archeology of early human evolution. Here we present a magneto-cyclochronology for the Acheulian assemblage from Sanmenxia Basin, Loess Plateau, North China. Our results place a sequence of stable normal and reversed paleomagnetic polarities within a regional lithostratigraphic context. The Acheulian assemblage is dated to be older than the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary at 0.78 Ma, and is found in strata that are probably equivalent to a weak paleosol subunit within loess layer L9 in the Chinese loess-paleosol sequence, which corresponds to marine isotope stage (MIS) 23, a relatively subdued interglacial period with age range of ∼0.89-0.92 Ma. This age of ∼0.9 Ma implies that Acheulian stone tools were unambiguously present in North China during the Early Pleistocene. It distinctly enlarges the geographic distribution of Acheulian technology and brings its occurrence in North China back into the Early Pleistocene, which is contemporaneous with its first emergence in Europe. Combined with other archeological records, the larger area over which Acheulian technology existed in East Asia during the terminal Early Pleistocene has important implications for understanding early human occupation of North China.
J. P. Wang
2014-07-01
Full Text Available From theory to experience, earthquake probability should be increasing with time as far as the same fault is concerned, rather than being a stationary process or independent of the date of the last occurrence. With a new non-stationary model, we evaluated the earthquake probability associated with the Meishan fault in central Taiwan, a growing concern to the local community given a relatively short return period reported (i.e., around 160 years. The analysis shows that on the condition that the earthquake has not recurred by the end of year 2014, the earthquake probability in the next 50 years could be around 0.3 (mean value, with a 95% confidence interval from 0.26 to 0.36.
Understanding Students' Beliefs about Probability.
Konold, Clifford
The concept of probability is not an easy concept for high school and college students to understand. This paper identifies and analyzes the students' alternative frameworks from the viewpoint of constructivism. There are various interpretations of probability through mathematical history: classical, frequentist, and subjectivist interpretation.…
Expected utility with lower probabilities
Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte
1994-01-01
An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...
Landau-Zener Probability Reviewed
Valencia, C
2008-01-01
We examine the survival probability for neutrino propagation through matter with variable density. We present a new method to calculate the level-crossing probability that differs from Landau's method by constant factor, which is relevant in the interpretation of neutrino flux from supernova explosion.
Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions
Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits...
A graduate course in probability
Tucker, Howard G
2014-01-01
Suitable for a graduate course in analytic probability, this text requires only a limited background in real analysis. Topics include probability spaces and distributions, stochastic independence, basic limiting options, strong limit theorems for independent random variables, central limit theorem, conditional expectation and Martingale theory, and an introduction to stochastic processes.
Towards a Formal Occurrence Logic based on Predicate Logic
Badie, Farshad; Götzsche, Hans
2015-01-01
In this discussion we will concentrate on the main characteristics of an alternative kind of logic invented by Hans Götzsche: Occurrence Logic, which is not based on truth functionality. Our approach is based on temporal logic developed and elaborated by A. N. Prior. We will focus on characterising...... argumentation based on formal Occurrence Logic concerning events and occurrences, and illustrate the relations between Predicate Logic and Occurrence Logic. The relationships (and dependencies) is conducive to an approach that can analyse the occurrences of ”logical statements based on different logical...... principles” in different moments. We will also conclude that the elaborated Götzsche’s Occurrence Logic could be able to direct us to a truth-functional independent computer-based logic for analysing argumentation based on events and occurrences....
Geospatial Analysis Application to Forecast Wildfire Occurrences in South Carolina
Stephen L. Sperry
2012-05-01
Full Text Available Wildfire occurrence and intensity have increased over the last few decades and, at times, have been national news. Wildfire occurrence is somewhat predictable based on physical factors like meteorological conditions, fuel loads, and vegetation dynamics. Socioeconomic factors have been not been widely used in wildfire occurrence models. We used a geospatial (or geographical information system analysis approach to identify socioeconomic variables that contribute to wildfire occurrence. Key variables considered were population change, population density, poverty rate, educational level, geographic mobility, and road density (transportation network. Hot spot analysis was the primary research tool. Wildfire occurrence seemed to be positively related to low population densities, low levels of population change, high poverty rate, low educational attainment level, and low road density. Obviously, some of these variables are correlated and this is a complex problem. However, socioeconomic variables appeared to contribute to wildfire occurrence and should be considered in development of wildfire occurrence forecasting models.
Invariant probabilities of transition functions
Zaharopol, Radu
2014-01-01
The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...
Survival probability and ruin probability of a risk model
LUO Jian-hua
2008-01-01
In this paper, a new risk model is studied in which the rate of premium income is regarded as a random variable, the arrival of insurance policies is a Poisson process and the process of claim occurring is p-thinning process. The integral representations of the survival probability are gotten. The explicit formula of the survival probability on the infinite interval is obtained in the special casc--exponential distribution.The Lundberg inequality and the common formula of the ruin probability are gotten in terms of some techniques from martingale theory.
Prospect evaluation as a function of numeracy and probability denominator.
Millroth, Philip; Juslin, Peter
2015-05-01
This study examines how numeracy and probability denominator (a direct-ratio probability, a relative frequency with denominator 100, a relative frequency with denominator 10,000) affect the evaluation of prospects in an expected-value based pricing task. We expected that numeracy would affect the results due to differences in the linearity of number perception and the susceptibility to denominator neglect with different probability formats. An analysis with functional measurement verified that participants integrated value and probability into an expected value. However, a significant interaction between numeracy and probability format and subsequent analyses of the parameters of cumulative prospect theory showed that the manipulation of probability denominator changed participants' psychophysical response to probability and value. Standard methods in decision research may thus confound people's genuine risk attitude with their numerical capacities and the probability format used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
吴晓丽; 申艳
2011-01-01
Objective: To study the related factors of occurrence of vulvar dystrophy in women at peak onset age. Methods: 87 patients aged 40 ~ 60 years old who were diagnosed as vulvar dystrophy by pathological examination and biopsy were selected as case group, 98 patients without vulvar dystrophy were selected as control group, the relationship between the occurrence of vulvar dystrophy and the factors including working and living circumstances, dietary habits, health habits, diseases, the history of menstruation and childbearing history was analyzed. Results: The risk factors of vulvar dystrophy included allergic constitution, favoring salty, hot and thermal foods, sedentariness, washing underwears by washing powder and vaginitis (OR > 1) , the protective factors of vulvar dystrophy included extravert personality, favoring vegetarian diet and pork liver (OR < 1) . Conclusion: Allergic constitution, incorrect dietary habits and recurrent vaginitis are related to female vulvar dystrophy closely.%目的:研究高峰发病年龄女性外阴营养不良发生的相关危险因素.方法:以40～60岁之间经病理活检确诊的外阴营养不良患者87例作为病例组,以非外阴营养不良患者98例为对照组,分析外阴营养不良的发生与工作生活环境、饮食习惯、卫生习惯、疾病情况、妇女月经史及生育史等因素之间关系.结果:过敏体质、饮食习惯中偏咸辣烫、生活习惯中喜久坐、洗衣粉洗涤内裤及白带色黄等可能是外阴营养不良发生的危险因素(OR＞1),而个性开朗、饮食偏素和喜食猪肝等可能是外阴营养不良的保护性因素(OR＜1).结论:过敏体质、不合理饮食习惯、卫生生活习惯及反复阴道炎等与女性外阴营养不良的发生关系较大.
Associating an ionospheric parameter with major earthquake occurrence throughout the world
D Ghosh; S K Midya
2014-02-01
With time, ionospheric variation analysis is gaining over lithospheric monitoring in serving precursors for earthquake forecast. The current paper highlights the association of major (Ms ≥ 6.0) and medium (4.0 ≤ Ms > 6.0) earthquake occurrences throughout the world in different ranges of the Ionospheric Earthquake Parameter (IEP) where ‘Ms’ is earthquake magnitude on the Richter scale. From statistical and graphical analyses, it is concluded that the probability of earthquake occurrence is maximum when the defined parameter lies within the range of 0–75 (lower range). In the higher ranges, earthquake occurrence probability gradually decreases. A probable explanation is also suggested.
无
2005-01-01
People much given to gambling usually manage to work out rough-and-ready ways of measuring the likelihood of certain situations so as to know which way to bet their money, and how much. If they did not do this., they would quickly lose all their money to those who did.
A short note on probability in clinical medicine.
Upshur, Ross E G
2013-06-01
Probability claims are ubiquitous in clinical medicine, yet exactly how clinical events relate to interpretations of probability has been not been well explored. This brief essay examines the major interpretations of probability and how these interpretations may account for the probabilistic nature of clinical events. It is argued that there are significant problems with the unquestioned application of interpretation of probability to clinical events. The essay concludes by suggesting other avenues to understand uncertainty in clinical medicine.
Mariano Tamura Vieira Gomes
2006-05-01
Full Text Available OBJETIVOS: analisamos raça, paridade e presença do polimorfismo do gene do receptor de progesterona, denominado PROGINS, como fatores relacionados à ocorrência de leiomioma uterino em mulheres brasileiras. MÉTODOS: realizamos estudo caso-controle, no qual foram incluídas 122 pacientes com diagnóstico de leiomioma e 125 mulheres sem a doença. Após registro dos dados clínicos, coletamos material biológico para extração de DNA, reação em cadeia da polimerase e eletroforese em gel de agarose, a fim de identificar a presença do polimorfismo PROGINS. A análise estatística foi feita pelo teste não paramétrico de Mann-Whitney ou pelo teste do chi2, a depender da variável estudada. O risco para ocorrência da doença foi calculado pelo modelo de regressão logística, com obtenção da odds ratio (OR (razão de chances. O nível de significância adotado foi de 5% (pPURPOSE: to analyze race, parity and presence of the progesterone receptor polymorphism, named PROGINS, as factors related to uterine leiomyoma occurrence in Brazilian women. METHODS: we carried out a case-control study, composed of 122 patients with the diagnosis of uterine fibroid and 125 women without the disease. After recording the clinical data, we collected biological material for DNA extraction, polymerase chain reaction and agarose gel electrophoresis in order to identify the presence of PROGINS polymorphism. Statistical analysis was performed using the non-parametric Mann-Whitney test or the chi2 test, depending on the studied variable. The risk for the occurrence of the disease was calculated by the logistic regression model, providing the odds ratio (OR. The adopted significance level was 5% (p<0.05 and the confidence interval was 95% (95% CI. RESULTS: we observed a higher prevalence of "non-white"women - mulatto and black - (50 vs 22.4% and nulliparas (23.8 vs 11.2% in the cases, while the progesterone receptor genotype was more often PROGINS positive
A Bayesian spatial approach for predicting seagrass occurrence
March, D.; Alós, J.; Cabanellas-Reboredo, M.; Infantes, E.; Jordi, A.; Palmer, M.
2013-10-01
We implement a Bayesian spatial approach to predict and map the probability of occurrence of seagrass Posidonia oceanica at high spatial resolution based environmental variables. We found that depth, near-bottom orbital velocities and a spectral pattern of Landsat imagery were relevant environmental variables, although there was no effect of slope or water residence time. We generated a data inventory of P. oceanica samples at Palma Bay, NW Mediterranean, from three main sources: side scan sonar, aerial imagery and a customized drop-camera system. A hierarchical Bayesian spatial model for non-Gaussian data was used to relate presence-absence data of P. oceanica with environmental variables in the presence of spatial autocorrelation (SA). A spatial dimension reduction method, the predictive process approach, was implemented to overcome computational constraints for moderately large datasets. Our results suggest that incorporating spatial random effects removes SA from the residuals and improves model fit compared to non-spatial regression models. The main products of this work were probability and uncertainty model maps, which could benefit seagrass management and the assessment of the ecological status of seagrass meadows.
Interstitial lung disease probably caused by imipramine.
Deshpande, Prasanna R; Ravi, Ranjani; Gouda, Sinddalingana; Stanley, Weena; Hande, Manjunath H
2014-01-01
Drugs are rarely associated with causing interstitial lung disease (ILD). We report a case of a 75-year-old woman who developed ILD after exposure to imipramine. To our knowledge, this is one of the rare cases of ILD probably caused due to imipramine. There is need to report such rare adverse effects related to ILD and drugs for better management of ILD.
STRIP: stream learning of influence probabilities
Kutzkov, Konstantin
2013-01-01
cascades, and developing applications such as viral marketing. Motivated by modern microblogging platforms, such as twitter, in this paper we study the problem of learning influence probabilities in a data-stream scenario, in which the network topology is relatively stable and the challenge of a learning...
Error probabilities in default Bayesian hypothesis testing
Gu, Xin; Hoijtink, Herbert; Mulder, J,
2016-01-01
This paper investigates the classical type I and type II error probabilities of default Bayes factors for a Bayesian t test. Default Bayes factors quantify the relative evidence between the null hypothesis and the unrestricted alternative hypothesis without needing to specify prior distributions for
Driving factors for torrential mass-movements occurrence in the Western Alps
Tiranti, Davide; Cremonini, Roberto; Asprea, Irene; Marco, Federica
2016-02-01
To understand the behaviour of torrential processes in the alpine environment, the conditions mainly responsiblefor the occurrence of these phenomena have to be identified and distinguished(classified) aspredisposing and triggering factors. In this regard, this study is aimed to understanding which factors lead to the occurrence of a given torrential processes in alpine catchments in the Western Alps, where information on past events are exhaustive and characterized by a long historical series. More than 769 documented torrential eventsoccurred from 1728 to 2015 within 78 catchments. Datasets concerning climate, geology and morphology, land use and the presence of historical landslide activity have been elaborated as input for multivariate statistical analysis to characterize the behaviour of the catchments. The results pinpoint the factors that mainly drive the type of torrential dominant process occurring in a given catchment, its occurrence probability, and its frequency. This study has demonstrated that catchments characterized by a significant percentage of outcropping rocks show a greater occurrence of torrential processes, especially hyperconcentrated flows and debris flows; on the contrary highly vegetated catchments are typically subject to water flows. This result can be a useful tool for the evaluation of hazards related to this specific phenomenon, making it possible to predict the most likely torrential processes that can be generated in a specific basin, given the characteristics of outcropping rock and vegetation cover.
Driving factors for torrential mass-movements occurrence in the Western Alps
Davide eTiranti
2016-02-01
Full Text Available To understand the behaviour of torrential processes in the alpine environment, the conditions mainly responsiblefor the occurrence of these phenomena have to be identified and distinguished(classified aspredisposing and triggering factors. In this regard, this study is aimed to understanding which factors lead to the occurrence of a given torrential processes in alpine catchments in the Western Alps, where information on past events are exhaustive and characterized by a long historical series. More than 769 documented torrential eventsoccurred from 1728 to 2015 within 78 catchments. Datasets concerning climate, geology and morphology, land use and the presence of historical landslide activity have been elaborated as input for multivariate statistical analysis to characterize the behaviour of the catchments. The results pinpoint the factors that mainly drive the type of torrential dominant process occurring in a given catchment, its occurrence probability, and its frequency. This study has demonstrated that catchments characterized by a significant percentage of outcropping rocks show a greater occurrence of torrential processes, especially hyperconcentrated flows and debris flows; on the contrary highly vegetated catchments are typically subject to water flows. This result can be a useful tool for the evaluation of hazards related to this specific phenomenon, making it possible to predict the most likely torrential processes that can be generated in a specific basin, given the characteristics of outcropping rock and vegetation cover.
Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.
Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A
2011-05-01
In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.
Di Monaco, Marco; Vallero, Fulvia; Castiglioni, Carlotta; Di Monaco, Roberto; Tappero, Rosa
2011-01-01
To investigate the association between serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D and the occurrence of simultaneous fractures of the upper limb in older women who sustain a fall-related fracture of the hip. Cross-sectional study. We investigated 472 of 480 white women consecutively admitted to a rehabilitation hospital because of a fall-related hip fracture. Twenty-seven (5.7%) of the 472 women sustained a concomitant upper-limb fracture of either distal radius (20 women) or proximal humerus (seven women). We assessed serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D 14.2 ± 4.1 (mean ± SD) days after surgical repair of the hip fracture in the 472 women by an immunoenzymatic assay. Twenty-five-hydroxyvitamin D levels were significantly lower in the 27 women with concomitant fractures of both hip and upper limb than in the remaining 445 hip-fracture women: mean ± SD values were 6.5 ± 5.0 ng/ml and 11.7 ± 10.4 ng/ml respectively in the two groups (mean difference between groups 5.2 ng/ml: 95% CI 1.2-9.2; p=0.011). Low levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D were significantly associated with concomitant fractures of the upper limb (p=0.017), after adjustment for eight potential confounders including age, height, weight, hip-fracture type, cognitive impairment, neurologic impairment, previous hip fracture, and previous upper-limb fracture. Low levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D were significantly associated with concomitant upper-limb fractures in our sample of older women with a fall-related fracture of the hip. Preventing vitamin D deficiency may lower the incidence of simultaneous fractures due to a singe fall in elderly women. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
庞振凌
2012-01-01
针对遗传学教材关于链孢霉的连锁遗传分析中的三个问题：（1）两对等位基因是否连锁;（2）是否位于着丝粒同侧;（3）着丝粒与nic重组率、nic与ade间的重组率、着丝粒与ade间的重组率三者间不存在等式关系.对于（1）、（2）两个问题分别采用概率法给予解答,对于（3）运用相对运动的观点给了三者各自的计算方法及三者间等式关系,即着丝粒与nic重组率＋nic与ade间重组率=着丝粒与ade间的重组率.%This article on the ＂genetics＂ materials on c N. crassa chain genetic analysis of three issues ： （ 1 ） whether two pairs of allele chain or not, （2） are they located in centromere of the same side, （3） reorganization rate among centromere and the nic and ade-rate are not existent equality. The two issues of （ 1 ） and （2）, we answered by probability method ,but as for （3） relative motion method of the three respective perspectives to the calculation method and three-equation, reorganization rate namely： centromere and nic ＋ ade and nic = centro- mere and ade.
Probability with applications and R
Dobrow, Robert P
2013-01-01
An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c
Probability Ranking in Vector Spaces
Melucci, Massimo
2011-01-01
The Probability Ranking Principle states that the document set with the highest values of probability of relevance optimizes information retrieval effectiveness given the probabilities are estimated as accurately as possible. The key point of the principle is the separation of the document set into two subsets with a given level of fallout and with the highest recall. The paper introduces the separation between two vector subspaces and shows that the separation yields a more effective performance than the optimal separation into subsets with the same available evidence, the performance being measured with recall and fallout. The result is proved mathematically and exemplified experimentally.
Holographic probabilities in eternal inflation.
Bousso, Raphael
2006-11-10
In the global description of eternal inflation, probabilities for vacua are notoriously ambiguous. The local point of view is preferred by holography and naturally picks out a simple probability measure. It is insensitive to large expansion factors or lifetimes and so resolves a recently noted paradox. Any cosmological measure must be complemented with the probability for observers to emerge in a given vacuum. In lieu of anthropic criteria, I propose to estimate this by the entropy that can be produced in a local patch. This allows for prior-free predictions.
Local Causality, Probability and Explanation
Healey, Richard A
2016-01-01
In papers published in the 25 years following his famous 1964 proof John Bell refined and reformulated his views on locality and causality. Although his formulations of local causality were in terms of probability, he had little to say about that notion. But assumptions about probability are implicit in his arguments and conclusions. Probability does not conform to these assumptions when quantum mechanics is applied to account for the particular correlations Bell argues are locally inexplicable. This account involves no superluminal action and there is even a sense in which it is local, but it is in tension with the requirement that the direct causes and effects of events are nearby.
A philosophical essay on probabilities
Laplace, Marquis de
1996-01-01
A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application
Onur Satir
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Forest fires are one of the most important factors in environmental risk assessment and it is the main cause of forest destruction in the Mediterranean region. Forestlands have a number of known benefits such as decreasing soil erosion, containing wild life habitats, etc. Additionally, forests are also important player in carbon cycle and decreasing the climate change impacts. This paper discusses forest fire probability mapping of a Mediterranean forestland using a multiple data assessment technique. An artificial neural network (ANN method was used to map forest fire probability in Upper Seyhan Basin (USB in Turkey. Multi-layer perceptron (MLP approach based on back propagation algorithm was applied in respect to physical, anthropogenic, climate and fire occurrence datasets. Result was validated using relative operating characteristic (ROC analysis. Coefficient of accuracy of the MLP was 0.83. Landscape features input to the model were assessed statistically to identify the most descriptive factors on forest fire probability mapping using the Pearson correlation coefficient. Landscape features like elevation (R = −0.43, tree cover (R = 0.93 and temperature (R = 0.42 were strongly correlated with forest fire probability in the USB region.
Gulev, Sergey; Tilinina, Natalia; Belyaev, Konstantin
2015-04-01
Surface turbulent heat fluxes from modern era and first generation reanalyses (NCEP-DOE, ERA-Interim, MERRA NCEP-CFSR, JRA) as well as from satellite products (SEAFLUX, IFREMER, HOAPS) were intercompared using framework of probability distributions for sensible and latent heat fluxes. For approximation of probability distributions and estimation of extreme flux values Modified Fisher-Tippett (MFT) distribution has been used. Besides mean flux values, consideration is given to the comparative analysis of (i) parameters of the MFT probability density functions (scale and location), (ii) extreme flux values corresponding high order percentiles of fluxes (e.g. 99th and higher) and (iii) fractional contribution of extreme surface flux events in the total surface turbulent fluxes integrated over months and seasons. The latter was estimated using both fractional distribution derived from MFT and empirical estimates based upon occurrence histograms. The strongest differences in the parameters of probability distributions of surface fluxes and extreme surface flux values between different reanalyses are found in the western boundary current extension regions and high latitudes, while the highest differences in the fractional contributions of surface fluxes may occur in mid ocean regions being closely associated with atmospheric synoptic dynamics. Generally, satellite surface flux products demonstrate relatively stronger extreme fluxes compared to reanalyses, even in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes where data assimilation input in reanalyses is quite dense compared to the Southern Ocean regions.
Counting Irreducible Double Occurrence Words
Burns, Jonathan
2011-01-01
A double occurrence word $w$ over a finite alphabet $\\Sigma$ is a word in which each alphabet letter appears exactly twice. Such words arise naturally in the study of topology, graph theory, and combinatorics. Recently, double occurrence words have been used for studying DNA recombination events. We develop formulas for counting and enumerating several elementary classes of double occurrence words such as palindromic, irreducible, and strongly-irreducible words.
Gap analysis - potatoes occurrences
Castaneda-Alvarez, N.P.; Haan, de S.; Juarez, H.; Khoury, C.K.; Achicanoy, H.A.; Sosa, C.C.; Bernau, V.; Salas, A.; Heider, B.; Simon, R.; Maxted, N.; Spooner, D.M.
2015-01-01
Records (with and without coordinates) representing germplasm accessions and sightings of the wild relatives of potato. These records were used as input to assess the ex situ conservation urgency of 73 wild relatives of potato
Survival probability in diffractive dijet photoproduction
Klasen, M
2009-01-01
We confront the latest H1 and ZEUS data on diffractive dijet photoproduction with next-to-leading order QCD predictions in order to determine whether a rapidity gap survival probability of less than one is supported by the data. We find evidence for this hypothesis when assuming global factorization breaking for both the direct and resolved photon contributions, in which case the survival probability would have to be E_T^jet-dependent, and for the resolved or in addition the related direct initial-state singular contribution only, where it would be independent of E_T^jet.
Atomic transition probabilities of Nd I
Stockett, M. H.; Wood, M. P.; Den Hartog, E. A.; Lawler, J. E.
2011-12-01
Fourier transform spectra are used to determine emission branching fractions for 236 lines of the first spectrum of neodymium (Nd i). These branching fractions are converted to absolute atomic transition probabilities using radiative lifetimes from time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence measurements (Den Hartog et al 2011 J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 44 225001). The wavelength range of the data set is from 390 to 950 nm. These transition probabilities from emission and laser measurements are compared to relative absorption measurements in order to assess the importance of unobserved infrared branches from selected upper levels.
Emerson Oliveira
2010-01-01
Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Avaliar os fatores de risco relacionados à ocorrência da incontinência urinária feminina. MÉTODOS: Estudo caso-controle que incluiu 253 mulheres (102 incontinentes e 151 continentes convidadas a responder a um questionário epidemiológico sobre possíveis fatores de risco para a incontinência urinária como: idade, estado hormonal, raça, Índice de Massa Corporal, paridade, tipos de partos (normais, fórcipes ou cesarianas, peso do maior recém-nascido, utilização de episiotomia e ou analgesia durante o parto, história de histerectomia, prática de atividade física, tabagismo, diabetes mellitus, constipação intestinal, história de asma brônquica e ou doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica, uso de diuréticos e ou antidepressivos. RESULTADOS: Foram encontrados, após a aplicação do modelo de regressão logística binária, como fatores de risco para a ocorrência de incontinência urinária: a idade [OR = 1,07 (IC 1,03 - 1,1], o parto normal [OR = 1,5 (IC 1,1 - 12,0], o parto fórcipe [OR = 35,0 (IC 3,7 - 327] e o peso do maior recém-nascido [OR = 1,001 (IC 1 - 1,002]. Além disso, identificamos como fator de proteção a cesariana [OR = 0,39 (IC 0,23 - 0,65]. CONCLUSÃO: Os fatores de risco independentes para a ocorrência da incontinência urinária foram idade, parto normal, parto fórcipe e peso do maior recém-nascido e, como fator de proteção, a cesariana.OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the risk factors related to occurrence of female urinary incontinence. METHODS: A case-control study that included 253 women (102 continent and 151 incontinent invited to respond to an epidemiological questionnaire on possible risk factors for urinary incontinence. They were age, hormone status, race, body mass index, parity, types of deliveries (normal, forceps or cesarean, weight of largest newborn, use of episiotomy and / or analgesia during labor, history of hysterectomy, physical activity, smoking, diabetes mellitus, constipation
Mining High Utility Itemsets with Regular Occurrence
Komate Amphawan
2016-09-01
Full Text Available High utility itemset mining (HUIM plays an important role in the data mining community and in a wide range of applications. For example, in retail business it is used for finding sets of sold products that give high profit, low cost, etc. These itemsets can help improve marketing strategies, make promotions/ advertisements, etc. However, since HUIM only considers utility values of items/itemsets, it may not be sufficient to observe product-buying behavior of customers such as information related to “regular purchases of sets of products having a high profit margin”. To address this issue, the occurrence behavior of itemsets (in the term of regularity simultaneously with their utility values was investigated. Then, the problem of mining high utility itemsets with regular occurrence (MHUIR to find sets of co-occurrence items with high utility values and regular occurrence in a database was considered. An efficient single-pass algorithm, called MHUIRA, was introduced. A new modified utility-list structure, called NUL, was designed to efficiently maintain utility values and occurrence information and to increase the efficiency of computing the utility of itemsets. Experimental studies on real and synthetic datasets and complexity analyses are provided to show the efficiency of MHUIRA combined with NUL in terms of time and space usage for mining interesting itemsets based on regularity and utility constraints.
Diurnal distribution of sunshine probability
Aydinli, S.
1982-01-01
The diurnal distribution of the sunshine probability is essential for the predetermination of average irradiances and illuminances by solar radiation on sloping surfaces. The most meteorological stations have only monthly average values of the sunshine duration available. It is, therefore, necessary to compute the diurnal distribution of sunshine probability starting from the average monthly values. It is shown how the symmetric component of the distribution of the sunshine probability which is a consequence of a ''sidescene effect'' of the clouds can be calculated. The asymmetric components of the sunshine probability depending on the location and the seasons and their influence on the predetermination of the global radiation are investigated and discussed.
Probability representation of classical states
Man'ko, OV; Man'ko, [No Value; Pilyavets, OV
2005-01-01
Probability representation of classical states described by symplectic tomograms is discussed. Tomographic symbols of classical observables which are functions on phase-space are studied. Explicit form of kernel of commutative star-product of the tomographic symbols is obtained.
Introduction to probability and measure
Parthasarathy, K R
2005-01-01
According to a remark attributed to Mark Kac 'Probability Theory is a measure theory with a soul'. This book with its choice of proofs, remarks, examples and exercises has been prepared taking both these aesthetic and practical aspects into account.
The probabilities of unique events.
Sangeet S Khemlani
Full Text Available Many theorists argue that the probabilities of unique events, even real possibilities such as President Obama's re-election, are meaningless. As a consequence, psychologists have seldom investigated them. We propose a new theory (implemented in a computer program in which such estimates depend on an intuitive non-numerical system capable only of simple procedures, and a deliberative system that maps intuitions into numbers. The theory predicts that estimates of the probabilities of conjunctions should often tend to split the difference between the probabilities of the two conjuncts. We report two experiments showing that individuals commit such violations of the probability calculus, and corroborating other predictions of the theory, e.g., individuals err in the same way even when they make non-numerical verbal estimates, such as that an event is highly improbable.
Logic, probability, and human reasoning.
Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P
2015-04-01
This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction.
潘春仰; 邱建平; 陆林; 张奇; 张瑞岩; 沈卫峰
2015-01-01
目的：探讨冠状动脉药物洗脱支架（DES）植入术后支架内再狭窄（ISR）相关因素。方法选择2010年9月至2014年9月上海交通大学医学院附属瑞金医院治疗的连续258例雷帕霉素DES植入术后至少1年冠状动脉造影复查确诊为ISR患者（ISR组）和同期262例年龄和性别匹配但无ISR患者（对照组），比较两组患者临床特征、生化指标、术后用药、超声心动图左室射血分数（LVEF）及DES植入治疗特征，采用多因素Logistic回归方法分析与ISR相关因素。结果与对照组相比，ISR组患者既往心肌梗死史、糖尿病和吸烟多见，血清高敏C反应蛋白（hs-CRP）、糖化血红蛋白、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇（LDL-C）和载脂蛋白B水平显著增高，但LVEF减低（P 均<0．05）。尽管两组冠状动脉病变数和支架植入部位无显著差异，但ISR组支架直径较小、长度较长，分叉病变多见（P<0．05）。 Logistic回归分析显示既往心肌梗死史、糖尿病、吸烟、hs-CRP、LDL-C、支架长度是ISR独立危险因素，而支架直径、LVEF与ISR呈负相关。结论雷帕霉素DES植入术后ISR发生与多个临床和冠状动脉病变或介入因素相关，有效控制冠心病危险因素、改善左心室功能，对预防ISR具有重要作用，尤其是小血管、长支架和分叉病变患者。%Objective To investigate the factors related to the occurrence of in-stent restenosis (ISR) after percutaneous coronary drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation. Methods A total of 258 consecutive patients with coronary angiography confirmed ISR that occurred at least one year after coronary sirolimus-eluting stent implantation, who were encountered at the Affiliated Ruijin Hospital of Shanghai Jiaotong University during the period from September 2010 to September 2014 , were collected as ISR group; and other 260 age-and sex-matched patients with no ISR at least one year after coronary sirolimus
Sivieri, Olivio A.; Talhiari, Ricardo S.; Souza Paraiso, Mauro de; Silva, Paulo S.C.P. da [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Silva, Carlos N. P. da [Companhia Siderurgica Paulista (Brazil)
1984-12-31
The occurrence of `separations`(splitting type fracture) in the samples from experimental molts of HSLA (high resistance and low alloy) steels produced by COSIPA is studied. Instrumented Charpy and COD tests were conducted. The importance of the through-the-thickness (SL orientation) for the comparison between the steels and the interpretations of the conditions for the occurrence of separations is emphasized. (author). 11 figs., 1 tab., 7 refs.
Joint probabilities and quantum cognition
de Barros, J Acacio
2012-01-01
In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantum-like response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.
Three lectures on free probability
2012-01-01
These are notes from a three-lecture mini-course on free probability given at MSRI in the Fall of 2010 and repeated a year later at Harvard. The lectures were aimed at mathematicians and mathematical physicists working in combinatorics, probability, and random matrix theory. The first lecture was a staged rediscovery of free independence from first principles, the second dealt with the additive calculus of free random variables, and the third focused on random matrix models.