Optimal Universal Uncertainty Relations
Li, Tao; Xiao, Yunlong; Ma, Teng; Fei, Shao-Ming; Jing, Naihuan; Li-Jost, Xianqing; Wang, Zhi-Xi
2016-01-01
We study universal uncertainty relations and present a method called joint probability distribution diagram to improve the majorization bounds constructed independently in [Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 230401 (2013)] and [J. Phys. A. 46, 272002 (2013)]. The results give rise to state independent uncertainty relations satisfied by any nonnegative Schur-concave functions. On the other hand, a remarkable recent result of entropic uncertainty relation is the direct-sum majorization relation. In this paper, we illustrate our bounds by showing how they provide a complement to that in [Phys. Rev. A. 89, 052115 (2014)]. PMID:27775010
Measurement uncertainty relations
Busch, Paul, E-mail: paul.busch@york.ac.uk [Department of Mathematics, University of York, York (United Kingdom); Lahti, Pekka, E-mail: pekka.lahti@utu.fi [Turku Centre for Quantum Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Turku, FI-20014 Turku (Finland); Werner, Reinhard F., E-mail: reinhard.werner@itp.uni-hannover.de [Institut für Theoretische Physik, Leibniz Universität, Hannover (Germany)
2014-04-15
Measurement uncertainty relations are quantitative bounds on the errors in an approximate joint measurement of two observables. They can be seen as a generalization of the error/disturbance tradeoff first discussed heuristically by Heisenberg. Here we prove such relations for the case of two canonically conjugate observables like position and momentum, and establish a close connection with the more familiar preparation uncertainty relations constraining the sharpness of the distributions of the two observables in the same state. Both sets of relations are generalized to means of order α rather than the usual quadratic means, and we show that the optimal constants are the same for preparation and for measurement uncertainty. The constants are determined numerically and compared with some bounds in the literature. In both cases, the near-saturation of the inequalities entails that the state (resp. observable) is uniformly close to a minimizing one.
Generalized uncertainty relations
Herdegen, Andrzej; Ziobro, Piotr
2017-04-01
The standard uncertainty relations (UR) in quantum mechanics are typically used for unbounded operators (like the canonical pair). This implies the need for the control of the domain problems. On the other hand, the use of (possibly bounded) functions of basic observables usually leads to more complex and less readily interpretable relations. In addition, UR may turn trivial for certain states if the commutator of observables is not proportional to a positive operator. In this letter we consider a generalization of standard UR resulting from the use of two, instead of one, vector states. The possibility to link these states to each other in various ways adds additional flexibility to UR, which may compensate some of the above-mentioned drawbacks. We discuss applications of the general scheme, leading not only to technical improvements, but also to interesting new insight.
Pauli effects in uncertainty relations
Toranzo, I V; Esquivel, R O; Dehesa, J S
2014-01-01
In this letter we analyze the effect of the spin dimensionality of a physical system in two mathematical formulations of the uncertainty principle: a generalized Heisenberg uncertainty relation valid for all antisymmetric N-fermion wavefunctions, and the Fisher-information- based uncertainty relation valid for all antisymmetric N-fermion wavefunctions of central potentials. The accuracy of these spin-modified uncertainty relations is examined for all atoms from Hydrogen to Lawrencium in a self-consistent framework.
Variance-based uncertainty relations
Huang, Yichen
2010-01-01
It is hard to overestimate the fundamental importance of uncertainty relations in quantum mechanics. In this work, I propose state-independent variance-based uncertainty relations for arbitrary observables in both finite and infinite dimensional spaces. We recover the Heisenberg uncertainty principle as a special case. By studying examples, we find that the lower bounds provided by our new uncertainty relations are optimal or near-optimal. I illustrate the uses of our new uncertainty relations by showing that they eliminate one common obstacle in a sequence of well-known works in entanglement detection, and thus make these works much easier to access in applications.
Relational uncertainty in service dyads
Kreye, Melanie
2016-01-01
Purpose: Relational uncertainty determines how relationships develop because it enables the building of trust and commitment. However, relational uncertainty has not been explored in an inter-organisational setting. This paper investigates how organisations experience relational uncertainty...... via semi-structured interviews and secondary data. Findings: The findings suggest that relational uncertainty is caused by the partner’s unresolved organisational uncertainty, i.e. their lacking capabilities to deliver or receive (parts of) the service. Furthermore, we found that resolving...... and explain the actions of a partnering organisation due to a lack of knowledge about their abilities and intentions. Second, we present suitable organisational responses to relational uncertainty and their effect on service quality....
Uncertainty relation in Schwarzschild spacetime
Feng, Jun; Zhang, Yao-Zhong; Gould, Mark D.; Fan, Heng
2015-04-01
We explore the entropic uncertainty relation in the curved background outside a Schwarzschild black hole, and find that Hawking radiation introduces a nontrivial modification on the uncertainty bound for particular observer, therefore it could be witnessed by proper uncertainty game experimentally. We first investigate an uncertainty game between a free falling observer and his static partner holding a quantum memory initially entangled with the quantum system to be measured. Due to the information loss from Hawking decoherence, we find an inevitable increase of the uncertainty on the outcome of measurements in the view of static observer, which is dependent on the mass of the black hole, the distance of observer from event horizon, and the mode frequency of quantum memory. To illustrate the generality of this paradigm, we relate the entropic uncertainty bound with other uncertainty probe, e.g., time-energy uncertainty. In an alternative game between two static players, we show that quantum information of qubit can be transferred to quantum memory through a bath of fluctuating quantum fields outside the black hole. For a particular choice of initial state, we show that the Hawking decoherence cannot counteract entanglement generation after the dynamical evolution of system, which triggers an effectively reduced uncertainty bound that violates the intrinsic limit -log2 c. Numerically estimation for a proper choice of initial state shows that our result is comparable with possible real experiments. Finally, a discussion on the black hole firewall paradox in the context of entropic uncertainty relation is given.
Relational uncertainty in service dyads
Kreye, Melanie
2016-01-01
in service dyads and how they resolve it through suitable organisational responses to increase the level of service quality. Design/methodology/approach: We apply the overall logic of Organisational Information-Processing Theory (OIPT) and present empirical insights from two industrial case studies collected...... via semi-structured interviews and secondary data. Findings: The findings suggest that relational uncertainty is caused by the partner’s unresolved organisational uncertainty, i.e. their lacking capabilities to deliver or receive (parts of) the service. Furthermore, we found that resolving...... the relational uncertainty increased the functional quality while resolving the partner’s organisational uncertainty increased the technical quality of the delivered service. Originality: We make two contributions. First, we introduce relational uncertainty to the OM literature as the inability to predict...
Thermodynamic and relativistic uncertainty relations
Artamonov, A. A.; Plotnikov, E. M.
2017-01-01
Thermodynamic uncertainty relation (UR) was verified experimentally. The experiments have shown the validity of the quantum analogue of the zeroth law of stochastic thermodynamics in the form of the saturated Schrödinger UR. We have also proposed a new type of UR for the relativistic mechanics. These relations allow us to consider macroscopic phenomena within the limits of the ratio of the uncertainty relations for different physical quantities.
Uncertainty relation in Schwarzschild spacetime
Jun Feng
2015-04-01
Full Text Available We explore the entropic uncertainty relation in the curved background outside a Schwarzschild black hole, and find that Hawking radiation introduces a nontrivial modification on the uncertainty bound for particular observer, therefore it could be witnessed by proper uncertainty game experimentally. We first investigate an uncertainty game between a free falling observer and his static partner holding a quantum memory initially entangled with the quantum system to be measured. Due to the information loss from Hawking decoherence, we find an inevitable increase of the uncertainty on the outcome of measurements in the view of static observer, which is dependent on the mass of the black hole, the distance of observer from event horizon, and the mode frequency of quantum memory. To illustrate the generality of this paradigm, we relate the entropic uncertainty bound with other uncertainty probe, e.g., time–energy uncertainty. In an alternative game between two static players, we show that quantum information of qubit can be transferred to quantum memory through a bath of fluctuating quantum fields outside the black hole. For a particular choice of initial state, we show that the Hawking decoherence cannot counteract entanglement generation after the dynamical evolution of system, which triggers an effectively reduced uncertainty bound that violates the intrinsic limit −log2c. Numerically estimation for a proper choice of initial state shows that our result is comparable with possible real experiments. Finally, a discussion on the black hole firewall paradox in the context of entropic uncertainty relation is given.
Uncertainty relation for mutual information
Schneeloch, James; Broadbent, Curtis J.; Howell, John C.
2014-12-01
We postulate the existence of a universal uncertainty relation between the quantum and classical mutual informations between pairs of quantum systems. Specifically, we propose that the sum of the classical mutual information, determined by two mutually unbiased pairs of observables, never exceeds the quantum mutual information. We call this the complementary-quantum correlation (CQC) relation and prove its validity for pure states, for states with one maximally mixed subsystem, and for all states when one measurement is minimally disturbing. We provide results of a Monte Carlo simulation suggesting that the CQC relation is generally valid. Importantly, we also show that the CQC relation represents an improvement to an entropic uncertainty principle in the presence of a quantum memory, and that it can be used to verify an achievable secret key rate in the quantum one-time pad cryptographic protocol.
Uncertainty Relation from Holography Principle
Chen, Jia-Zhong; Jia, Duoje
2004-01-01
We propose that the information and entropy of an isolated system are two sides of one coin in the sense that they can convert into each other by measurement and evolution of the system while the sum of them is identically conserved. The holographic principle is reformulated in the way that this conserved sum is bounded by a quarter of the area A of system boundary. Uncertainty relation is derived from the holographic principle.
Strong majorization entropic uncertainty relations
Rudnicki, Lukasz [Freiburg Institute for Advanced Studies, Albert-Ludwigs University of Freiburg, Albertstrasse 19, 79104 Freiburg (Germany); Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Aleja Lotnikow 32/46, PL-02-668 Warsaw (Poland); Puchala, Zbigniew [Institute of Theoretical and Applied Informatics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Baltycka 5, 44-100 Gliwice (Poland); Institute of Physics, Jagiellonian University, ul Reymonta 4, 30-059 Krakow (Poland); Zyczkowski, Karol [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Aleja Lotnikow 32/46, PL-02-668 Warsaw (Poland); Institute of Physics, Jagiellonian University, ul Reymonta 4, 30-059 Krakow (Poland)
2014-07-01
We present new entropic uncertainty relations in a finite-dimensional Hilbert space. Using the majorization technique we derive several explicit lower bounds for the sum of two Renyi entropies of the same order. Obtained bounds are expressed in terms of the largest singular values of given unitary matrices. Numerical simulations with random unitary matrices show that our bound is almost always stronger than the well known result of Maassen and Uffink.
Uncertainty Relations and Possible Experience
Gregg Jaeger
2016-06-01
Full Text Available The uncertainty principle can be understood as a condition of joint indeterminacy of classes of properties in quantum theory. The mathematical expressions most closely associated with this principle have been the uncertainty relations, various inequalities exemplified by the well known expression regarding position and momentum introduced by Heisenberg. Here, recent work involving a new sort of “logical” indeterminacy principle and associated relations introduced by Pitowsky, expressable directly in terms of probabilities of outcomes of measurements of sharp quantum observables, is reviewed and its quantum nature is discussed. These novel relations are derivable from Boolean “conditions of possible experience” of the quantum realm and have been considered both as fundamentally logical and as fundamentally geometrical. This work focuses on the relationship of indeterminacy to the propositions regarding the values of discrete, sharp observables of quantum systems. Here, reasons for favoring each of these two positions are considered. Finally, with an eye toward future research related to indeterminacy relations, further novel approaches grounded in category theory and intended to capture and reconceptualize the complementarity characteristics of quantum propositions are discussed in relation to the former.
Uncertainty Relation and Inseparability Criterion
Goswami, Ashutosh K.; Panigrahi, Prasanta K.
2016-11-01
We investigate the Peres-Horodecki positive partial transpose criterion in the context of conserved quantities and derive a condition of inseparability for a composite bipartite system depending only on the dimensions of its subsystems, which leads to a bi-linear entanglement witness for the two qubit system. A separability inequality using generalized Schrodinger-Robertson uncertainty relation taking suitable operators, has been derived, which proves to be stronger than the bi-linear entanglement witness operator. In the case of mixed density matrices, it identically distinguishes the separable and non separable Werner states.
Aspects of universally valid Heisenberg uncertainty relation
Fujikawa, Kazuo
2012-01-01
A numerical illustration of a universally valid Heisenberg uncertainty relation, which was proposed recently, is presented by using the experimental data on spin-measurements by J. Erhart, et al.[ Nature Phys. {\\bf 8}, 185 (2012)]. This uncertainty relation is closely related to a modified form of the Arthurs-Kelly uncertainty relation which is also tested by the spin-measurements. The universally valid Heisenberg uncertainty relation always holds, but both the modified Arthurs-Kelly uncertainty relation and Heisenberg's error-disturbance relation proposed by Ozawa, which was analyzed in the original experiment, fail in the present context of spin-measurements, and the cause of their failure is identified with the assumptions of unbiased measurement and disturbance. It is also shown that all the universally valid uncertainty relations are derived from Robertson's relation and thus the essence of the uncertainty relation is exhausted by Robertson's relation as is widely accepted.
Uncertainty Relations for Analog Signals
Eldar, Yonina C
2008-01-01
In the past several years there has been a surge of research investigating various aspects of sparse representations and compressed sensing. Most of this work has focused on the finite-dimensional setting in which the goal is to decompose a finite-length vector into a given finite dictionary. Underlying many of these results is the conceptual notion of an uncertainty principle: a signal cannot be sparsely represented in two different bases. Here, we extend these ideas and results to the analog, infinite-dimensional setting by considering signals that lie in a finitely-generated shift-invariant (SI) space. This class of signals is rich enough to include many interesting special cases such as multiband signals and splines. By adapting the notion of coherence defined for finite dictionaries to infinite SI representations, we develop an uncertainty principle similar in spirit to its finite counterpart. We demonstrate tightness of our bound by considering a bandlimited low-pass comb that achieves the uncertainty p...
Uncertainty relations for general unitary operators
Bagchi, Shrobona; Pati, Arun Kumar
2016-10-01
We derive several uncertainty relations for two arbitrary unitary operators acting on physical states of a Hilbert space. We show that our bounds are tighter in various cases than the ones existing in the current literature. Using the uncertainty relation for the unitary operators, we obtain the tight state-independent lower bound for the uncertainty of two Pauli observables and anticommuting observables in higher dimensions. With regard to the minimum-uncertainty states, we derive the minimum-uncertainty state equation by the analytic method and relate this to the ground-state problem of the Harper Hamiltonian. Furthermore, the higher-dimensional limit of the uncertainty relations and minimum-uncertainty states are explored. From an operational point of view, we show that the uncertainty in the unitary operator is directly related to the visibility of quantum interference in an interferometer where one arm of the interferometer is affected by a unitary operator. This shows a principle of preparation uncertainty, i.e., for any quantum system, the amount of visibility for two general noncommuting unitary operators is nontrivially upper bounded.
Ramanjaneyulu, P. S.; Sayi, Y. S.; Ramakumar, K. L.
2008-08-01
Quantification of boron in diverse materials of relevance in nuclear technology is essential in view of its high thermal neutron absorption cross section. A simple and sensitive method has been developed for the determination of boron in uranium-aluminum-silicon alloy, based on leaching of boron with 6 M HCl and H 2O 2, its selective separation by solvent extraction with 2-ethyl hexane 1,3-diol and quantification by spectrophotometry using curcumin. The method has been evaluated by standard addition method and validated by inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectroscopy. Relative standard deviation and absolute detection limit of the method are 3.0% (at 1 σ level) and 12 ng, respectively. All possible sources of uncertainties in the methodology have been individually assessed, following the International Organization for Standardization guidelines. The combined uncertainty is calculated employing uncertainty propagation formulae. The expanded uncertainty in the measurement at 95% confidence level (coverage factor 2) is 8.840%.
Nonclassicality in phase-number uncertainty relations
Matia-Hernando, Paloma; Luis, Alfredo [Departamento de Optica, Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Universidad Complutense, 28040 Madrid (Spain)
2011-12-15
We show that there are nonclassical states with lesser joint fluctuations of phase and number than any classical state. This is rather paradoxical since one would expect classical coherent states to be always of minimum uncertainty. The same result is obtained when we replace phase by a phase-dependent field quadrature. Number and phase uncertainties are assessed using variance and Holevo relation.
Uncertainty Relations in Terms of Fisher Information
LUO Shun-Long
2001-01-01
By virtue of the well-known concept of Fisher information in the theory of statistical inference, we obtain an inequality chain which generalizes and refines the conventional Heisenberg uncertainty relations.``
Positive phase space distributions and uncertainty relations
Kruger, Jan
1993-01-01
In contrast to a widespread belief, Wigner's theorem allows the construction of true joint probabilities in phase space for distributions describing the object system as well as for distributions depending on the measurement apparatus. The fundamental role of Heisenberg's uncertainty relations in Schroedinger form (including correlations) is pointed out for these two possible interpretations of joint probability distributions. Hence, in order that a multivariate normal probability distribution in phase space may correspond to a Wigner distribution of a pure or a mixed state, it is necessary and sufficient that Heisenberg's uncertainty relation in Schroedinger form should be satisfied.
Detecting multimode entanglement by symplectic uncertainty relations
Serafini, A
2005-01-01
Quantities invariant under symplectic (i.e. linear and canonical) transformations are constructed as functions of the second moments of N pairs of bosonic field operators. A general multimode uncertainty relation is derived as a necessary constraint on such symplectic invariants. In turn, necessary conditions for the separability of multimode continuous variable states under (MxN)-mode bipartitions are derived from the uncertainty relation. These conditions are proven to be necessary and sufficient for (1+N)-mode Gaussian states and for (M+N)-mode bisymmetric Gaussian states.
Uncertainty relations and approximate quantum error correction
Renes, Joseph M.
2016-09-01
The uncertainty principle can be understood as constraining the probability of winning a game in which Alice measures one of two conjugate observables, such as position or momentum, on a system provided by Bob, and he is to guess the outcome. Two variants are possible: either Alice tells Bob which observable she measured, or he has to furnish guesses for both cases. Here I derive uncertainty relations for both, formulated directly in terms of Bob's guessing probabilities. For the former these relate to the entanglement that can be recovered by action on Bob's system alone. This gives an explicit quantum circuit for approximate quantum error correction using the guessing measurements for "amplitude" and "phase" information, implicitly used in the recent construction of efficient quantum polar codes. I also find a relation on the guessing probabilities for the latter game, which has application to wave-particle duality relations.
Uncertainty relations based on skew information with quantum memory
Ma, ZhiHao; Chen, ZhiHua; Fei, Shao-Ming
2017-01-01
We present a new uncertainty relation by defining a measure of uncertainty based on skew information. For bipartite systems, we establish uncertainty relations with the existence of a quantum memory. A general relation between quantum correlations and tight bounds of uncertainty has been presented.
Uncertainty relation based on unbiased parameter estimations
Sun, Liang-Liang; Song, Yong-Shun; Qiao, Cong-Feng; Yu, Sixia; Chen, Zeng-Bing
2017-02-01
Heisenberg's uncertainty relation has been extensively studied in spirit of its well-known original form, in which the inaccuracy measures used exhibit some controversial properties and don't conform with quantum metrology, where the measurement precision is well defined in terms of estimation theory. In this paper, we treat the joint measurement of incompatible observables as a parameter estimation problem, i.e., estimating the parameters characterizing the statistics of the incompatible observables. Our crucial observation is that, in a sequential measurement scenario, the bias induced by the first unbiased measurement in the subsequent measurement can be eradicated by the information acquired, allowing one to extract unbiased information of the second measurement of an incompatible observable. In terms of Fisher information we propose a kind of information comparison measure and explore various types of trade-offs between the information gains and measurement precisions, which interpret the uncertainty relation as surplus variance trade-off over individual perfect measurements instead of a constraint on extracting complete information of incompatible observables.
Entanglement and discord assisted entropic uncertainty relations under decoherence
Yao, ChunMei; Chen, ZhiHua; Ma, ZhiHao; Severini, Simone; Serafini, Alessio
2014-09-01
The uncertainty principle is a crucial aspect of quantum mechanics. It has been shown that quantum entanglement as well as more general notions of correlations, such as quantum discord, can relax or tighten the entropic uncertainty relation in the presence of an ancillary system. We explored the behaviour of entropic uncertainty relations for system of two qubits-one of which subjects to several forms of independent quantum noise, in both Markovian and non-Markovian regimes. The uncertainties and their lower bounds, identified by the entropic uncertainty relations, increase under independent local unital Markovian noisy channels, but they may decrease under non-unital channels. The behaviour of the uncertainties (and lower bounds) exhibit periodical oscillations due to correlation dynamics under independent non-Markovian reservoirs. In addition, we compare different entropic uncertainty relations in several special cases and find that discord-tightened entropic uncertainty relations offer in general a better estimate of the uncertainties in play.
Uncertainty Relation between Angular Momentum and Angle Variable.
Roy, C. L.; Sannigrahi, A. B.
1979-01-01
Discusses certain pitfalls regarding the uncertainty relation between angular momentum and the angle variable from a pedagogic point of view. Further, an uncertainty relation has been derived for these variables in a simple and consistant manner. (Author/HM)
Role of information theoretic uncertainty relations in quantum theory
Jizba, Petr, E-mail: p.jizba@fjfi.cvut.cz [FNSPE, Czech Technical University in Prague, Břehová 7, 115 19 Praha 1 (Czech Republic); ITP, Freie Universität Berlin, Arnimallee 14, D-14195 Berlin (Germany); Dunningham, Jacob A., E-mail: J.Dunningham@sussex.ac.uk [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH (United Kingdom); Joo, Jaewoo, E-mail: j.joo@surrey.ac.uk [Advanced Technology Institute and Department of Physics, University of Surrey, Guildford, GU2 7XH (United Kingdom)
2015-04-15
Uncertainty relations based on information theory for both discrete and continuous distribution functions are briefly reviewed. We extend these results to account for (differential) Rényi entropy and its related entropy power. This allows us to find a new class of information-theoretic uncertainty relations (ITURs). The potency of such uncertainty relations in quantum mechanics is illustrated with a simple two-energy-level model where they outperform both the usual Robertson–Schrödinger uncertainty relation and Shannon entropy based uncertainty relation. In the continuous case the ensuing entropy power uncertainty relations are discussed in the context of heavy tailed wave functions and Schrödinger cat states. Again, improvement over both the Robertson–Schrödinger uncertainty principle and Shannon ITUR is demonstrated in these cases. Further salient issues such as the proof of a generalized entropy power inequality and a geometric picture of information-theoretic uncertainty relations are also discussed.
Fine-grained uncertainty relation under the relativistic motion
Feng, Jun; Gould, Mark D; Fan, Heng
2014-01-01
One of the most important features of quantum theory is the uncertainty principle. Amount various uncertainty relations, the profound Fine-Grained Uncertainty Relation (FGUR) is used to distinguish the uncertainty inherent in obtaining any combination of outcomes for different measurements. In this paper, we explore this uncertainty relation in relativistic regime. For observer undergoes an uniform acceleration who immersed in an Unruh thermal bath, we show that the uncertainty bound is dependent on the acceleration parameter and choice of Unruh modes. Dramatically, we find that the measurements in Mutually Unbiased Bases (MUBs), sharing same uncertainty bound in inertial frame, could be distinguished from each other for a noninertial observer. On the other hand, once the Unruh decoherence is prevented by utilizing the cavity, the entanglement could be generated from nonuniform motion. We show that, for the observer restricted in a single rigid cavity, the uncertainty exhibits a periodic evolution with respec...
Some applications of uncertainty relations in quantum information
Majumdar, A. S.; Pramanik, T.
2016-08-01
We discuss some applications of various versions of uncertainty relations for both discrete and continuous variables in the context of quantum information theory. The Heisenberg uncertainty relation enables demonstration of the Einstein, Podolsky and Rosen (EPR) paradox. Entropic uncertainty relations (EURs) are used to reveal quantum steering for non-Gaussian continuous variable states. EURs for discrete variables are studied in the context of quantum memory where fine-graining yields the optimum lower bound of uncertainty. The fine-grained uncertainty relation is used to obtain connections between uncertainty and the nonlocality of retrieval games for bipartite and tripartite systems. The Robertson-Schrödinger (RS) uncertainty relation is applied for distinguishing pure and mixed states of discrete variables.
Large storage operations under climate change: expanding uncertainties and evolving tradeoffs
Giuliani, Matteo; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Vu, Phuong Nam; Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo
2016-03-01
In a changing climate and society, large storage systems can play a key role for securing water, energy, and food, and rebalancing their cross-dependencies. In this letter, we study the role of large storage operations as flexible means of adaptation to climate change. In particular, we explore the impacts of different climate projections for different future time horizons on the multi-purpose operations of the existing system of large dams in the Red River basin (China-Laos-Vietnam). We identify the main vulnerabilities of current system operations, understand the risk of failure across sectors by exploring the evolution of the system tradeoffs, quantify how the uncertainty associated to climate scenarios is expanded by the storage operations, and assess the expected costs if no adaptation is implemented. Results show that, depending on the climate scenario and the time horizon considered, the existing operations are predicted to change on average from -7 to +5% in hydropower production, +35 to +520% in flood damages, and +15 to +160% in water supply deficit. These negative impacts can be partially mitigated by adapting the existing operations to future climate, reducing the loss of hydropower to 5%, potentially saving around 34.4 million US year-1 at the national scale. Since the Red River is paradigmatic of many river basins across south east Asia, where new large dams are under construction or are planned to support fast growing economies, our results can support policy makers in prioritizing responses and adaptation strategies to the changing climate.
On The Relativity of Redshifts: Does Space Really "Expand"?
Lewis, Geraint F
2016-01-01
In classes on cosmology, students are often told that photons stretch as space expands, but just how physical is this picture? Does space really expand? In this article, we explore the notion of the redshift of light with Einstein's general theory of relativity, showing that the core underpinning principles reveal that redshifts are both simpler and more complex than you might naively think. This has significant implications for the observed redshifting of photons as they travel across the universe, often refereed to as the cosmological redshift, and for the idea of expanding space.
Johnson, Fred A.; Jensen, Gitte H.; Madsen, Jesper; Williams, Byron K.
2014-01-01
We explored the application of dynamic-optimization methods to the problem of pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) management in western Europe. We were especially concerned with the extent to which uncertainty in population dynamics influenced an optimal management strategy, the gain in management performance that could be expected if uncertainty could be eliminated or reduced, and whether an adaptive or robust management strategy might be most appropriate in the face of uncertainty. We combined three alternative survival models with three alternative reproductive models to form a set of nine annual-cycle models for pink-footed geese. These models represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent, and the extent to which they are influenced by spring temperatures. We calculated state-dependent harvest strategies for these models using stochastic dynamic programming and an objective function that maximized sustainable harvest, subject to a constraint on desired population size. As expected, attaining the largest mean objective value (i.e., the relative measure of management performance) depended on the ability to match a model-dependent optimal strategy with its generating model of population dynamics. The nine models suggested widely varying objective values regardless of the harvest strategy, with the density-independent models generally producing higher objective values than models with density-dependent survival. In the face of uncertainty as to which of the nine models is most appropriate, the optimal strategy assuming that both survival and reproduction were a function of goose abundance and spring temperatures maximized the expected minimum objective value (i.e., maxi–min). In contrast, the optimal strategy assuming equal model weights minimized the expected maximum loss in objective value. The expected value of eliminating model uncertainty was an increase in objective value
EDITORIAL: Squeezed states and uncertainty relations
Jauregue-Renaud, Rocio; Kim, Young S.; Man'ko, Margarita A.; Moya-Cessa, Hector
2004-06-01
This special issue of Journal of Optics B: Quantum and Semiclassical Optics is composed mainly of extended versions of talks and papers presented at the Eighth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations held in Puebla, Mexico on 9-13 June 2003. The Conference was hosted by Instituto de Astrofísica, Óptica y Electrónica, and the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. This series of meetings began at the University of Maryland, College Park, USA, in March 1991. The second and third workshops were organized by the Lebedev Physical Institute in Moscow, Russia, in 1992 and by the University of Maryland Baltimore County, USA, in 1993, respectively. Afterwards, it was decided that the workshop series should be held every two years. Thus the fourth meeting took place at the University of Shanxi in China and was supported by the International Union of Pure and Applied Physics (IUPAP). The next three meetings in 1997, 1999 and 2001 were held in Lake Balatonfüred, Hungary, in Naples, Italy, and in Boston, USA, respectively. All of them were sponsored by IUPAP. The ninth workshop will take place in Besançon, France, in 2005. The conference has now become one of the major international meetings on quantum optics and the foundations of quantum mechanics, where most of the active research groups throughout the world present their new results. Accordingly this conference has been able to align itself to the current trend in quantum optics and quantum mechanics. The Puebla meeting covered most extensively the following areas: quantum measurements, quantum computing and information theory, trapped atoms and degenerate gases, and the generation and characterization of quantum states of light. The meeting also covered squeeze-like transformations in areas other than quantum optics, such as atomic physics, nuclear physics, statistical physics and relativity, as well as optical devices. There were many new participants at this meeting, particularly
New entropic uncertainty relations for prime power dimensions
Funder, Jakob Løvstad
2011-01-01
We consider the question of entropic uncertainty relations for prime power dimensions. In order to improve upon such uncertainty relations for higher dimensional quantum systems, we derive a tight lower bound amount of entropy for multiple probability distributions under the constraint that the sum...
Uncertainty relations, zero point energy and the linear canonical group
Sudarshan, E. C. G.
1993-01-01
The close relationship between the zero point energy, the uncertainty relations, coherent states, squeezed states, and correlated states for one mode is investigated. This group-theoretic perspective enables the parametrization and identification of their multimode generalization. In particular the generalized Schroedinger-Robertson uncertainty relations are analyzed. An elementary method of determining the canonical structure of the generalized correlated states is presented.
Relating confidence to measured information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning
Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Zerkle, David K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Key, Brian P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shevitz, Daniel W [Los Alamos National Laboratory
2010-10-07
Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to relate confidence to the available information uncertainty in the result using fuzzy sets. Information uncertainty can be quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values.
Improved entropic uncertainty relations and information exclusion relations
Coles, Patrick J.; Piani, Marco
2013-01-01
The uncertainty principle can be expressed in entropic terms, also taking into account the role of entanglement in reducing uncertainty. The information exclusion principle bounds instead the correlations that can exist between the outcomes of incompatible measurements on one physical system, and a second reference system. We provide a more stringent formulation of both the uncertainty principle and the information exclusion principle, with direct applications for, e.g., the security analysis...
Fractional revivals through Rényi uncertainty relations
Romera, E.; de Los Santos, F.
2008-07-01
We show that the Rényi uncertainty relations give a good description of the dynamical behavior of wave packets and constitute a sound approach to revival phenomena by analyzing three model systems: the simple harmonic oscillator, the infinite square well, and the quantum bouncer. We prove the usefulness of entropic uncertainty relations as a tool for identifying fractional revivals by providing a comparison in different contexts with the usual Heisenberg uncertainty relation and with the common approach in terms of the autocorrelation function.
Multimode uncertainty relations and separability of continuous variable states
Serafini, A
2006-01-01
A multimode uncertainty relation (generalising the Robertson-Schroedinger relation) is derived as a necessary constraint on the second moments of n pairs of canonical operators. In turn, necessary conditions for the separability of multimode continuous variable states under (m+n)-mode bipartitions are derived from the uncertainty relation. These conditions are proven to be necessary and sufficient for (1+n)-mode Gaussian states and for (m+n)-mode bisymmetric Gaussian states.
Do the Uncertainty Relations Really have Crucial Significances for Physics?
Dumitru S.
2010-10-01
Full Text Available It is proved the falsity of idea that the Uncertainty Relations (UR have crucial significances for physics. Additionally one argues for the necesity of an UR-disconnected quantum philosophy.
Optimal uncertainty relations in a modified Heisenberg algebra
Abdelkhalek, Kais; Fiedler, Leander; Mangano, Gianpiero; Schwonnek, René
2016-01-01
Various theories that aim at unifying gravity with quantum mechanics suggest modifications of the Heisenberg algebra for position and momentum. From the perspective of quantum mechanics, such modifications lead to new uncertainty relations which are thought (but not proven) to imply the existence of a minimal observable length. Here we prove this statement in a framework of sufficient physical and structural assumptions. Moreover, we present a general method that allows to formulate optimal and state-independent variance-based uncertainty relations. In addition, instead of variances, we make use of entropies as a measure of uncertainty and provide uncertainty relations in terms of min- and Shannon entropies. We compute the corresponding entropic minimal lengths and find that the minimal length in terms of min-entropy is exactly one bit.
Optimal uncertainty relations in a modified Heisenberg algebra
Abdelkhalek, Kais; Chemissany, Wissam; Fiedler, Leander; Mangano, Gianpiero; Schwonnek, René
2016-12-01
Various theories that aim at unifying gravity with quantum mechanics suggest modifications of the Heisenberg algebra for position and momentum. From the perspective of quantum mechanics, such modifications lead to new uncertainty relations that are thought (but not proven) to imply the existence of a minimal observable length. Here we prove this statement in a framework of sufficient physical and structural assumptions. Moreover, we present a general method that allows us to formulate optimal and state-independent variance-based uncertainty relations. In addition, instead of variances, we make use of entropies as a measure of uncertainty and provide uncertainty relations in terms of min and Shannon entropies. We compute the corresponding entropic minimal lengths and find that the minimal length in terms of min entropy is exactly 1 bit.
Physics-related epistemic uncertainties in proton depth dose simulation
Pia, Maria Grazia; Lechner, Anton; Quintieri, Lina; Saracco, Paolo
2010-01-01
A set of physics models and parameters pertaining to the simulation of proton energy deposition in matter are evaluated in the energy range up to approximately 65 MeV, based on their implementations in the Geant4 toolkit. The analysis assesses several features of the models and the impact of their associated epistemic uncertainties, i.e. uncertainties due to lack of knowledge, on the simulation results. Possible systematic effects deriving from uncertainties of this kind are highlighted; their relevance in relation to the application environment and different experimental requirements are discussed, with emphasis on the simulation of radiotherapy set-ups. By documenting quantitatively the features of a wide set of simulation models and the related intrinsic uncertainties affecting the simulation results, this analysis provides guidance regarding the use of the concerned simulation tools in experimental applications; it also provides indications for further experimental measurements addressing the sources of s...
Expanding General Relativity's Space by S-Denying
Rabounski, Dmitri; Smarandache, Florentins; Borissova, Larissa
2016-05-01
Applying the S-denying procedure to signature conditions in a four-dimensional pseudo-Riemannian space - i.e. changing one (or even all) of the conditions to be partially true and partially false. Obtaining five kinds of expanded space-time for General Relativity. Kind I permits the space-time to be in collapse. Kind II permits the space-time to change its own signature. Kind III has peculiarities, linked to the third signature condition. Kind IV permits regions where the metric fully degenerates: there may be non-quantum teleportation, and a home for virtual photons. Kind V is common for kinds I, II, III, and IV.
New Inequalities and Uncertainty Relations on Linear Canonical Transform Revisit
Xu Guanlei
2009-01-01
Full Text Available The uncertainty principle plays an important role in mathematics, physics, signal processing, and so on. Firstly, based on definition of the linear canonical transform (LCT and the traditional Pitt's inequality, one novel Pitt's inequality in the LCT domains is obtained, which is connected with the LCT parameters a and b. Then one novel logarithmic uncertainty principle is derived from this novel Pitt's inequality in the LCT domains, which is associated with parameters of the two LCTs. Secondly, from the relation between the original function and LCT, one entropic uncertainty principle and one Heisenberg's uncertainty principle in the LCT domains are derived, which are associated with the LCT parameters a and b. The reason why the three lower bounds are only associated with LCT parameters a and b and independent of c and d is presented. The results show it is possible that the bounds tend to zeros.
Exact Discrete Analogs of Canonical Commutation and Uncertainty Relations
Vasily E. Tarasov
2016-06-01
Full Text Available An exact discretization of the canonical commutation and corresponding uncertainty relations are suggested. We prove that the canonical commutation relations of discrete quantum mechanics, which is based on standard finite difference, holds for constant wave functions only. In this paper, we use the recently proposed exact discretization of derivatives, which is based on differences that are represented by infinite series. This new mathematical tool allows us to build sensible discrete quantum mechanics based on the suggested differences and includes the correct canonical commutation and uncertainty relations.
The Second International Workshop on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations
Han, D. (Editor); Kim, Y. S.; Manko, V. I.
1993-01-01
This conference publication contains the proceedings of the Second International Workshop on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations held in Moscow, Russia, on 25-29 May 1992. The purpose of this workshop was to study possible applications of squeezed states of light. The Workshop brought together many active researchers in squeezed states of light and those who may find the concept of squeezed states useful in their research, particularly in understanding the uncertainty relations. It was found at this workshop that the squeezed state has a much broader implication than the two-photon coherent states in quantum optics, since the squeeze transformation is one of the most fundamental transformations in physics.
Error-disturbance uncertainty relations in neutron spin measurements
Sponar, Stephan
2016-05-01
Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle in a formulation of uncertainties, intrinsic to any quantum system, is rigorously proven and demonstrated in various quantum systems. Nevertheless, Heisenberg’s original formulation of the uncertainty principle was given in terms of a reciprocal relation between the error of a position measurement and the thereby induced disturbance on a subsequent momentum measurement. However, a naive generalization of a Heisenberg-type error-disturbance relation for arbitrary observables is not valid. An alternative universally valid relation was derived by Ozawa in 2003. Though universally valid, Ozawa’s relation is not optimal. Recently, Branciard has derived a tight error-disturbance uncertainty relation (EDUR), describing the optimal trade-off between error and disturbance under certain conditions. Here, we report a neutron-optical experiment that records the error of a spin-component measurement, as well as the disturbance caused on another spin-component to test EDURs. We demonstrate that Heisenberg’s original EDUR is violated, and Ozawa’s and Branciard’s EDURs are valid in a wide range of experimental parameters, as well as the tightness of Branciard’s relation.
Fifth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations
Han, D. (Editor); Janszky, J. (Editor); Kim, Y. S. (Editor); Man'ko, V. I. (Editor)
1998-01-01
The Fifth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations was held at Balatonfured, Hungary, on 27-31 May 1997. This series was initiated in 1991 at the College Park Campus of the University of Maryland as the Workshop on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations. The scientific purpose of this series was to discuss squeezed states of light, but in recent years the scope is becoming broad enough to include studies of uncertainty relations and squeeze transformations in all branches of physics including quantum optics and foundations of quantum mechanics. Quantum optics will continue playing the pivotal role in the future, but the future meetings will include all branches of physics where squeeze transformations are basic. As the meeting attracted more participants and started covering more diversified subjects, the fourth meeting was called an international conference. The Fourth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations was held in 1995 was hosted by Shanxi University in Taiyuan, China. The fifth meeting of this series, which was held at Balatonfured, Hungary, was also supported by the IUPAP. In 1999, the Sixth International Conference will be hosted by the University of Naples in 1999. The meeting will take place in Ravello near Naples.
Uncertainty related to Environmental Data and Estimated Extreme Events
Burcharth, H. F.
The design loads on rubble mound breakwaters are almost entirely determined by the environmental conditions, i.e. sea state, water levels, sea bed characteristics, etc. It is the objective of sub-group B to identify the most important environmental parameters and evaluate the related uncertaintie...
Uncertainty relations in quantum optics. Is the photon intelligent?
Przanowski, Maciej; García-Compeán, Hugo; Tosiek, Jaromir; Turrubiates, Francisco J.
2016-10-01
The Robertson-Schrödinger, Heisenberg-Robertson and Trifonov uncertainty relations for arbitrary two functions f1 and f2 depending on the quantum phase and the number of photons respectively, are given. Intelligent states and states which minimize locally the product of uncertainties (Δf1) 2 ṡ(Δf2) 2 or the sum (Δf1) 2 +(Δf2) 2 are investigated for the cases f1 = ϕ , exp(iϕ) , exp(- iϕ) , cos ϕ , sin ϕ and f2 = n.
Momani, Amer Mohammad
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Capacity expansion generally requires large capital expenditure on illiquid assets. Therefore, decisions to enlarge capacity must support the organisation’s strategic objectives and provide valuable input for the budgeting process. This paper applies an expanded form of Real Options Analysis (ROA to generate and evaluate capacity expansion strategies under uncertainty in the construction material industry. ROA is applied to different expansion strategies associated with different demand scenarios. Evaluating a wider variety of strategies can reduce risk and sponsor decisions that maximise the firm’s value. The case study shows that the execution of a lead expansion strategy with 10-year intervals under a 50 per cent demand satisfaction scenario produces superior results.
Error-disturbance uncertainty relations studied in neutron optics
Sponar, Stephan; Sulyok, Georg; Demirel, Bulent; Hasegawa, Yuji
2016-09-01
Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is probably the most famous statement of quantum physics and its essential aspects are well described by a formulations in terms of standard deviations. However, a naive Heisenberg-type error-disturbance relation is not valid. An alternative universally valid relation was derived by Ozawa in 2003. Though universally valid Ozawa's relation is not optimal. Recently, Branciard has derived a tight error-disturbance uncertainty relation (EDUR), describing the optimal trade-off between error and disturbance. Here, we report a neutron-optical experiment that records the error of a spin-component measurement, as well as the disturbance caused on another spin-component to test EDURs. We demonstrate that Heisenberg's original EDUR is violated, and the Ozawa's and Branciard's EDURs are valid in a wide range of experimental parameters, applying a new measurement procedure referred to as two-state method.
Giuliani, Matteo; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo
2015-04-01
Climate change and growing population are expected to severely affect freshwater availability by the end of 21th century. Although many river basins are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply, risking considerable impacts on the society, the economy, and the environment, the operations of many water resource systems are still designed on the basis of the observed historical hydrologic variability. Yet, under changing hydroclimatic forcing, no guarantee exists that policies optimized over the past will not fail in coming years. This work explores the impact of projected climate change and the associated uncertainty on the policy performance for different future time horizons. A perturbed physics ensemble of projected hydroclimatic conditions based on the HadCM3 General Circulation Modelis is used to simulate the whole set of Pareto optimal policies over the different futures. The changes in the overall system performance and the evolution of each single-tradeoff are analyzed to improve our understanding of the system's vulnerabilities. The study is developed on the Red-Thai Binh River system, Vietnam. The Red River Basin is the second largest basin of Vietnam, draining an area of about 169,000 km2, and comprises three main tributaries and several reservoirs, namely SonLa and HoaBinh on the Da River, ThacBa and TuyenQuang on the Lo River. These reservoirs are regulated for maximizing hydropower production, mitigating downstream flood, primarily in Hanoi, and guaranteeing irrigation water supply to the agricultural districts in the delta. We address the challenges of the policy design problem (e.g., dimensionality of the system, number of objectives involved) by adopting the evolutionary multi-objective direct policy search (EMODPS), an approximate dynamic programming method that combines direct policy search, nonlinear approximating networks and multi-objective evolutionary algorithms to design Pareto approximate operating policies for multi
String theory, scale relativity and the generalized uncertainty principle
Castro, C
1995-01-01
An extension/ modification of the Stringy Heisenberg Uncertainty principle is derived within the framework of the theory of Special Scale-Relativity proposed by Nottale. Based on the fractal structure of two dimensional Quantum Gravity which has attracted considerable interest recently we conjecture that the underlying fundamental principle behind String theory should be based on an extension of Scale Relativity where both dynamics as well as scales are incorporated in the same footing.
Comment on the uncertainty relation with periodic boundary conditions
Fujikawa, Kazuo
2010-01-01
The Kennard-type uncertainty relation $\\Delta x\\Delta p >\\frac{\\hbar}{2}$ is formulated for a free particle with given momentum $ inside a box with periodic boundary conditions in the large box limit. Our construction of a free particle state is analogous to that of the Bloch wave in a periodic potential. A simple Robertson-type relation, which minimizes the effect of the box boundary and may be useful in some practical applications, is also presented.
Spin and localization of relativistic fermions and uncertainty relations
Céleri, Lucas C.; Kiosses, Vasilis; Terno, Daniel R.
2016-12-01
We discuss relations between several relativistic spin observables and derive a Lorentz-invariant characteristic of a reduced spin density matrix. A relativistic position operator that satisfies all the properties of its nonrelativistic analog does not exist. Instead we propose two causality-preserving positive operator-valued measures (POVMs) that are based on projections onto one-particle and antiparticle spaces, and on the normalized energy density. They predict identical expectation values for position. The variances differ by less than a quarter of the squared de Broglie wavelength and coincide in the nonrelativistic limit. Since the resulting statistical moment operators are not canonical conjugates of momentum, the Heisenberg uncertainty relations need not hold. Indeed, the energy density POVM leads to a lower uncertainty. We reformulate the standard equations of the spin dynamics by explicitly considering the charge-independent acceleration, allowing a consistent treatment of backreaction and inclusion of a weak gravitational field.
Fourth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations
Han, D. (Editor); Peng, Kunchi (Editor); Kim, Y. S. (Editor); Manko, V. I. (Editor)
1996-01-01
The fourth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations was held at Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China, on June 5 - 9, 1995. This conference was jointly organized by Shanxi University, the University of Maryland (U.S.A.), and the Lebedev Physical Institute (Russia). The first meeting of this series was called the Workshop on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations, and was held in 1991 at College Park, Maryland. The second and third meetings in this series were hosted in 1992 by the Lebedev Institute in Moscow, and in 1993 by the University of Maryland Baltimore County, respectively. The scientific purpose of this series was initially to discuss squeezed states of light, but in recent years, the scope is becoming broad enough to include studies of uncertainty relations and squeeze transformations in all branches of physics, including, of course, quantum optics and foundations of quantum mechanics. Quantum optics will continue playing the pivotal role in the future, but the future meetings will include all branches of physics where squeeze transformations are basic transformation. This transition took place at the fourth meeting of this series held at Shanxi University in 1995. The fifth meeting in this series will be held in Budapest (Hungary) in 1997, and the principal organizer will be Jozsef Janszky of the Laboratory of Crystal Physics, P.O. Box 132, H-1052. Budapest, Hungary.
The Physics of Interdependence, Social Uncertainty Relations, and Incompleteness
W.F. Lawless
2015-01-01
Full Text Available We report on the development of a mathematical model of social uncertainty relations to replace traditional models of the interaction, as well as a model of complexity from econophysics. Our goal with this mathematics is to control hybrid teams, firms and systems (i.e., where “hybrids” are arbitrary combinations of humans, robots and machines. But uncertainty is created by states of interdependence between social objects: at one extreme, interdependence reduces to independence between agents, producing rational but asocial effects; at the other extreme, interdependence de-individuates a group’s members until individual identity dissolves into a group (e.g., strong cults, mobs, gangs, and well-run teams and firms. In other studies, we have reviewed the structure of teams; in this report, we focus on how interdependence impedes efforts at direct control by making meaning incomplete. We begin with bistability to simplify interdependence, and generalize to full interdependence.
Realistic Approach of the Relations of Uncertainty of Heisenberg
Paul E. Sterian
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Due to the requirements of the principle of causality in the theory of relativity, one cannot make a device for the simultaneous measuring of the canonical conjugate variables in the conjugate Fourier spaces. Instead of admitting that a particle’s position and its conjugate momentum cannot be accurately measured at the same time, we consider the only probabilities which can be determined when working at subatomic level to be valid. On the other hand, based on Schwinger's action principle and using the quadridimensional form of the unitary transformation generator function of the quantum operators in the paper, the general form of the evolution equation for these operators is established. In the nonrelativistic case one obtains the Heisenberg's type evolution equations which can be particularized to derive Heisenberg's uncertainty relations. The analysis of the uncertainty relations as implicit evolution equations allows us to put into evidence the intrinsic nature of the correlation expressed by these equations in straight relations with the measuring process. The independence of the quantisation postulate from the causal evolution postulate of quantum mechanics is also put into discussion.
Quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations under weak measurements
Li, Lei; Wang, Qing-Wen; Shen, Shu-Qian; Li, Ming
2017-08-01
We investigate quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations (EURs) based on weak measurements. It is shown that the lower bound of EUR revealed by weak measurements is always larger than that revealed by the corresponding projective measurements. A series of lower bounds of EUR under both weak measurements and projective measurements are presented. Interestingly, the quantum-memory-assisted EUR based on weak measurements is a monotonically decreasing function of the strength parameter. Furthermore, some information-theoretic inequalities associated with weak measurements are also derived.
Uncertainty relation and black hole entropy of Kerr spacetime
Hu Shuang-Qi; Zhao Ren
2005-01-01
The properties of thermal radiation are discussed by using a new equation of state density, which is motivated by the generalized uncertainty relation in the quantum gravity. There is no burst at the last stage of the emission of Kerr black hole. When the new equation of state density is utilized to investigate the entropy of a Bosonic field and Fermionic field outside the horizon of a static Kerr black hole, the divergence appearing in the brick wall model is removed, without any cutoff. The entropy proportional to the horizon area is derived from the contribution of the vicinity of the horizon.
Heisenberg uncertainty relation and statistical measures in the square well
Jaime Sañudo
2012-07-01
Full Text Available A non stationary state in the one-dimensional infinite square well formed by a combination of the ground state and the first excited one is considered. The statistical complexity and the Fisher-Shannon entropy in position and momentum are calculated with time for this system. These measures are compared with the Heisenberg uncertainty relation, $Delta xDelta p$. It is observed that the extreme values of $Delta xDelta p$ coincide in time with extreme values of the other two statistical magnitudes.
Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen steering inequalities from entropic uncertainty relations
Schneeloch, James; Broadbent, Curtis J.; Walborn, Stephen P.; Cavalcanti, Eric G.; Howell, John C.
2013-06-01
We use entropic uncertainty relations to formulate inequalities that witness Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR)-steering correlations in diverse quantum systems. We then use these inequalities to formulate symmetric EPR-steering inequalities using the mutual information. We explore the differing natures of the correlations captured by one-way and symmetric steering inequalities and examine the possibility of exclusive one-way steerability in two-qubit states. Furthermore, we show that steering inequalities can be extended to generalized positive operator-valued measures, and we also derive hybrid steering inequalities between alternate degrees of freedom.
Uncertainty relation and black hole entropy of Kerr spacetime
Hu, Shuang-Qi; Zhao, Ren
2005-07-01
The properties of thermal radiation are discussed by using a new equation of state density, which is motivated by the generalized uncertainty relation in the quantum gravity. There is no burst at the last stage of the emission of Kerr black hole. When the new equation of state density is utilized to investigate the entropy of a Bosonic field and Fermionic field outside the horizon of a static Kerr black hole, the divergence appearing in the brick wall model is removed, without any cutoff. The entropy proportional to the horizon area is derived from the contribution of the vicinity of the horizon.
Characterizing quantum correlations. Entanglement, uncertainty relations and exponential families
Niekamp, Soenke
2012-04-20
This thesis is concerned with different characterizations of multi-particle quantum correlations and with entropic uncertainty relations. The effect of statistical errors on the detection of entanglement is investigated. First, general results on the statistical significance of entanglement witnesses are obtained. Then, using an error model for experiments with polarization-entangled photons, it is demonstrated that Bell inequalities with lower violation can have higher significance. The question for the best observables to discriminate between a state and the equivalence class of another state is addressed. Two measures for the discrimination strength of an observable are defined, and optimal families of observables are constructed for several examples. A property of stabilizer bases is shown which is a natural generalization of mutual unbiasedness. For sets of several dichotomic, pairwise anticommuting observables, uncertainty relations using different entropies are constructed in a systematic way. Exponential families provide a classification of states according to their correlations. In this classification scheme, a state is considered as k-correlated if it can be written as thermal state of a k-body Hamiltonian. Witness operators for the detection of higher-order interactions are constructed, and an algorithm for the computation of the nearest k-correlated state is developed.
Sixth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations
Han, D. (Editor); Kim, Y. S. (Editor); Solimento, S. (Editor)
2000-01-01
These proceedings contain contributions from about 200 participants to the 6th International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations (ICSSUR'99) held in Naples May 24-29, 1999, and organized jointly by the University of Naples "Federico II," the University of Maryland at College Park, and the Lebedev Institute, Moscow. This was the sixth of a series of very successful meetings started in 1990 at the College Park Campus of the University of Maryland. The other meetings in the series were held in Moscow (1992), Baltimore (1993), Taiyuan P.R.C. (1995) and Balatonfuered, Hungary (1997). The present one was held at the campus Monte Sant'Angelo of the University "Federico II" of Naples. The meeting sought to provide a forum for updating and reviewing a wide range of quantum optics disciplines, including device developments and applications, and related areas of quantum measurements and quantum noise. Over the years, the ICSSUR Conference evolved from a meeting on quantum measurement sector of quantum optics, to a wide range of quantum optics themes, including multifacet aspects of generation, measurement, and applications of nonclassical light (squeezed and Schrodinger cat radiation fields, etc.), and encompassing several related areas, ranging from quantum measurement to quantum noise. ICSSUR'99 brought together about 250 people active in the field of quantum optics, with special emphasis on nonclassical light sources and related areas. The Conference was organized in 8 Sections: Squeezed states and uncertainty relations; Harmonic oscillators and squeeze transformations; Methods of quantum interference and correlations; Quantum measurements; Generation and characterisation of non-classical light; Quantum noise; Quantum communication and information; and Quantum-like systems.
Solvable Models on Noncommutative Spaces with Minimal Length Uncertainty Relations
Dey, Sanjib
2014-01-01
Our main focus is to explore different models in noncommutative spaces in higher dimensions. We provide a procedure to relate a three dimensional q-deformed oscillator algebra to the corresponding algebra satisfied by canonical variables describing non-commutative spaces. The representations for the corresponding operators obey algebras whose uncertainty relations lead to minimal length, areas and volumes in phase space, which are in principle natural candidates of many different approaches of quantum gravity. We study some explicit models on these types of noncommutative spaces, first by utilising the perturbation theory, later in an exact manner. In many cases the operators are not Hermitian, therefore we use PT -symmetry and pseudo-Hermiticity property, wherever applicable, to make them self-consistent. Apart from building mathematical models, we focus on the physical implications of noncommutative theories too. We construct Klauder coherent states for the perturbative and nonperturbative noncommutative ha...
Reconsidering the conventional interpretation of the uncertainty relations
Dumitru, S
2000-01-01
The Conventional Interpretation of the Uncertainty Relations (CIUR) is reconsidered through a revaluation of its main assertions. It is shown that all the respective assertions are troubled by insurmountable defects. So it is revealed the indubitable failure of CIUR and the necessity of its abandonment as an unjustified doctrine which generates misconceptions and cofusions.Consequently theUR must be deprived of their quality of crucial formulae in distinction between quantum and classical physics. The theoretical UR are shown to be not indicators of measuring accuracies but simple fluctuations formmulae with natural analogous in classical (non-quantum) physics. That is why we propose that they to be named simply Heisenberg's relations. It is argued that the measurements description must be discriminated from quantum mechanics and done in a distict scientific branh disinct .
Kusec, Andrea; Tallon, Kathleen; Koerner, Naomi
2016-06-01
Although numerous studies have provided support for the notion that intolerance of uncertainty plays a key role in pathological worry (the hallmark feature of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD)), other uncertainty-related constructs may also have relevance for the understanding of individuals who engage in pathological worry. Three constructs from the social cognition literature, causal uncertainty, causal importance, and self-concept clarity, were examined in the present study to assess the degree to which these explain unique variance in GAD, over and above intolerance of uncertainty. N = 235 participants completed self-report measures of trait worry, GAD symptoms, and uncertainty-relevant constructs. A subgroup was subsequently classified as low in GAD symptoms (n = 69) or high in GAD symptoms (n = 54) based on validated cut scores on measures of trait worry and GAD symptoms. In logistic regressions, only elevated intolerance of uncertainty and lower self-concept clarity emerged as unique correlates of high (vs. low) GAD symptoms. The possible role of self-concept uncertainty in GAD and the utility of integrating social cognition theories and constructs into clinical research on intolerance of uncertainty are discussed.
Quantised inertia from relativity and the uncertainty principle
McCulloch, M E
2016-01-01
It is shown here that if we assume that what is conserved in nature is not simply mass-energy, but rather mass-energy plus the energy uncertainty of the uncertainty principle, and if we also assume that position uncertainty is reduced by the formation of relativistic horizons, then the resulting increase of energy uncertainty is close to that needed for a new model for inertial mass (MiHsC, quantised inertia) which has been shown to predict galaxy rotation without dark matter and cosmic acceleration without dark energy. The same principle can also be used to model the inverse square law of gravity, and predicts the mass of the electron.
Uncertainty of Water-hammer Loads for Safety Related Systems
Lee, Seung Chan; Yoon, Duk Joo [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., LT., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2013-10-15
In this study, the basic methodology is base on ISO GUM (Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurements). For a given gas void volumes in the discharge piping, the maximum pressure of water hammer is defined in equation. From equation, uncertainty parameter is selected as U{sub s} (superficial velocity for the specific pipe size and corresponding area) of equation. The main uncertainty parameter (U{sub s}) is estimated by measurement method and Monte Carlo simulation. Two methods are in good agreement with the extended uncertainty. Extended uncertainty of the measurement and Monte Carlo simulation is 1.30 and 1.34 respectively in 95% confidence interval. In 99% confidence interval, the uncertainties are 1.95 and 1.97 respectively. NRC Generic Letter 2008-01 requires nuclear power plant operators to evaluate the possibility of noncondensable gas accumulation for the Emergency Core Cooling System. Specially, gas accumulation can result in system pressure transient in pump discharge piping at a pump start. Consequently, this evolves into a gas water, a water-hammer event and the force imbalances on the piping segments. In this paper, MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) method is introduced in estimating the uncertainty of water hammer. The aim is to evaluate the uncertainty of the water hammer estimation results carried out by KHNP CRI in 2013.
Reconsideration of the Uncertainty Relations and Quantum Measurements
Dumitru S.
2008-04-01
Full Text Available Discussions on uncertainty relations (UR and quantum measurements (QMS persisted until nowadays in publications about quantum mechanics (QM. They originate mainly from the conventional interpretation of UR (CIUR. In the most of the QM literarure, it is underestimated the fact that, over the years, a lot of deficiencies regarding CIUR were signaled. As a rule the alluded deficiencies were remarked disparately and dis- cussed as punctual and non-essential questions. Here we approach an investigation of the mentioned deficiencies collected in a conclusive ensemble. Subsequently we expose a reconsideration of the major problems referring to UR and QMS. We reveal that all the basic presumption of CIUR are troubled by insurmountable deficiencies which require the indubitable failure of CIUR and its necessary abandonment. Therefore the UR must be deprived of their statute of crucial pieces for physics. So, the aboriginal versions of UR appear as being in postures of either (i thought-experimental fictions or (ii sim- ple QM formulae and, any other versions of them, have no connection with the QMS. Then the QMS must be viewed as an additional subject comparatively with the usual questions of QM. For a theoretical description of QMS we propose an information- transmission model, in which the quantum observables are considered as random vari- ables. Our approach directs to natural solutions and simplifications for many problems regarding UR and QMS.
Reconsideration of the Uncertainty Relations and Quantum Measurements
Dumitru S.
2008-04-01
Full Text Available Discussions on uncertainty relations (UR and quantum measurements (QMS persisted until nowadays in publications about quantum mechanics (QM. They originate mainly from the conventional interpretation of UR (CIUR. In the most of the QM literarure, it is underestimated the fact that, over the years, a lot of deficiencies regarding CIUR were signaled. As a rule the alluded deficiencies were remarked disparately and discussed as punctual and non-essential questions. Here we approach an investigation of the mentioned deficiencies collected in a conclusive ensemble. Subsequently we expose a reconsideration of the major problems referring to UR and QMS. We reveal that all the basic presumption of CIUR are troubled by insurmountable deficiencies which require the indubitable failure of CIUR and its necessary abandonment. Therefore the UR must be deprived of their statute of crucialpieces for physics. So, the aboriginal versions of UR appear as being in postures of either (i thought-experimental fictions or (ii simple QM formulae and, any other versions of them, have no connection with the QMS. Then the QMS must be viewed as an additional subject comparatively with the usual questions of QM. For a theoretical description of QMS we propose an information-transmission model, in which the quantum observables are considered as random variables. Our approach directs to natural solutions and simplifications for many problems regarding UR and QMS.
Expanding CME-flare relations to other stellar systems
Moschou, Sofia P.; Drake, Jeremy J.; Cohen, Ofer
2017-05-01
Stellar activity is one of the main parameters in exoplanet habitability studies. While the effects of UV to X-ray emission from extreme flares on exoplanets are beginning to be investigated, the impact of coronal mass ejections is currently highly speculative because CMEs and their properties cannot yet be directly observed on other stars. An extreme superflare was observed in X-rays on the Algol binary system on August 30 1997, emitting a total of energy 1.4x 10^{37} erg and making it a great candidate for studying the upper energy limits of stellar superflares in solar-type (GK) stars. A simultaneous increase and subsequent decline in absorption during the flare was also observed and interpretted as being caused by a CME. Here we investigate the dynamic properties of a CME that could explain such time-dependent absorption and appeal to trends revealed from solar flare and CME statistics as a guide. Using the ice-cream cone model that is extensively used in solar physics to describe the three-dimensional CME structure, in combination with the temporal profile of the hydrogen column density evolution, we are able to characterize the CME and estimate its kinetic energy and mass. We examine the mass, kinetic and flare X-ray fluence in the context of solar relations to examine the extent to which such relations can be extrapolated to much more extreme stellar events.
On the Role of Information Theoretic Uncertainty Relations in Quantum Theory
Jizba, Petr; Dunningham, Jacob A.; Joo, Jaewoo
2014-01-01
Uncertainty relations based on information theory for both discrete and continuous distribution functions are briefly reviewed. We extend these results to account for (differential) R\\'{e}nyi entropy and its related entropy power. This allows us to find a new class of information-theoretic uncertainty relations (ITURs). The potency of such uncertainty relations in quantum mechanics is illustrated with a simple two-energy-level model where they outperform both the usual Robertson-Schr\\"{o}ding...
Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis
Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.
1988-08-01
The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented.
Minimal length uncertainty relation and gravitational quantum well
Brau, F.; Buisseret, F.
2006-01-01
The dynamics of a particle in a gravitational quantum well is studied in the context of nonrelativistic quantum mechanics with a particular deformation of a two-dimensional Heisenberg algebra. This deformation yields a new short-distance structure characterized by a finite minimal uncertainty in pos
Psychological Entropy: A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty-Related Anxiety
Hirsh, Jacob B.; Mar, Raymond A.; Peterson, Jordan B.
2012-01-01
Entropy, a concept derived from thermodynamics and information theory, describes the amount of uncertainty and disorder within a system. Self-organizing systems engage in a continual dialogue with the environment and must adapt themselves to changing circumstances to keep internal entropy at a manageable level. We propose the entropy model of…
A discussion on the Heisenberg uncertainty principle from the perspective of special relativity
Nanni, Luca
2016-09-01
In this note, we consider the implications of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle (HUP) when computing uncertainties that affect the main dynamical quantities, from the perspective of special relativity. Using the well-known formula for propagating statistical errors, we prove that the uncertainty relations between the moduli of conjugate observables are not relativistically invariant. The new relationships show that, in experiments involving relativistic particles, limitations of the precision of a quantity obtained by indirect calculations may affect the final result.
A genuine reinterpretation of the Heisenberg's ("uncertainty") relations
Dumitru, S
2000-01-01
In spite \\smallskip of their popularity the \\QTR{bf}{H}eisenberg's (``uncertainty'') \\QTR{bf}{R}elations (HR) still generate controversies. The \\QTR{bf}{T}raditional \\QTR{bf}{I}nterpretation of HR (TIHR) dominate our days science, although over the years a lot of its defects were signaled. These facts justify a reinvestigation of the questions connected with the interpretation / significance of HR. Here it is developped such a reinvestigation starting with a revaluation of the main elements of TIHR. So one finds that all the respective elements are troubled by insurmountable defects. Then it results the indubitable failure of TIHR and the necessity of its abandonment. Consequently the HR must be deprived of their quality of crucial physical formulae. Moreover the HR are shown to be nothing but simple fluctuations formulae with natural analogous in classical (non-quantum) physics. The description of the maesuring uncertainties (traditionally associated with HR) is approached from a new informational perspectiv...
Lechner, Clemens M; Silbereisen, Rainer K; Tomasik, Martin J; Wasilewski, Jacek
2015-06-01
This study investigated how religiosity relates to goal engagement (i.e., investing time and effort; overcoming obstacles) and goal disengagement (i.e., protecting self-esteem and motivational resources against failure experiences; distancing from unattainable goals) in coping with perceived work-related uncertainties (e.g., growing risk of job loss) that arise from current social change. We hypothesised that religiosity not only expands individuals' capacities for both engagement and disengagement but also fosters an opportunity-congruent pattern of engagement and disengagement, promoting engagement especially under favourable opportunities for goal-striving in the social ecology and facilitating disengagement especially under unfavourable opportunities. Multilevel analyses in a sample of N = 2089 Polish adults aged 20-46 years partly supported these predictions. Religiosity was associated with higher goal engagement, especially under favourable economic opportunities for goal-striving in the social ecology (as measured by the regional net migration rate). For disengagement, the results were more mixed; religiosity was related to higher self-protection independently of the economic opportunity structure and predicted higher goal-distancing only under the most unfavourable opportunities. These results suggest that religiosity can promote different coping strategies under different conditions, fostering a pattern of opportunity-congruent engagement and, to some extent, disengagement that is likely to be adaptive. © 2014 International Union of Psychological Science.
Climate dynamics and fluid mechanics: Natural variability and related uncertainties
Ghil, Michael; Simonnet, Eric; 10.1016/j.physd.2008.03.036
2010-01-01
The purpose of this review-and-research paper is twofold: (i) to review the role played in climate dynamics by fluid-dynamical models; and (ii) to contribute to the understanding and reduction of the uncertainties in future climate-change projections. To illustrate the first point, we focus on the large-scale, wind-driven flow of the mid-latitude oceans which contribute in a crucial way to Earth's climate, and to changes therein. We study the low-frequency variability (LFV) of the wind-driven, double-gyre circulation in mid-latitude ocean basins, via the bifurcation sequence that leads from steady states through periodic solutions and on to the chaotic, irregular flows documented in the observations. This sequence involves local, pitchfork and Hopf bifurcations, as well as global, homoclinic ones. The natural climate variability induced by the LFV of the ocean circulation is but one of the causes of uncertainties in climate projections. Another major cause of such uncertainties could reside in the structural ...
Verburg, J.; Habib, M. B.; Keulen, M. van
2015-01-01
Relation extraction involves different types of uncertainty due to the imperfection of the extraction tools and the inherent ambiguity of unstructured text. In this paper, we discuss several ways of handling uncertainties in relation extraction from social media. Our study case is to extract tennis
Fan, Ya-Jing; Cao, Huai-Xin; Meng, Hui-Xian; Chen, Liang
2016-12-01
The uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics is a fundamental relation with different forms, including Heisenberg's uncertainty relation and Schrödinger's uncertainty relation. In this paper, we prove a Schrödinger-type uncertainty relation in terms of generalized metric adjusted skew information and correlation measure by using operator monotone functions, which reads, U_ρ ^{(g,f)}(A)U_ρ ^{(g,f)}(B)≥ f(0)^2l/k| Corr_ρ ^{s(g,f)}(A,B)| ^2 for some operator monotone functions f and g, all n-dimensional observables A, B and a non-singular density matrix ρ . As applications, we derive some new uncertainty relations for Wigner-Yanase skew information and Wigner-Yanase-Dyson skew information.
Fan, Ya-Jing; Cao, Huai-Xin; Meng, Hui-Xian; Chen, Liang
2016-09-01
The uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics is a fundamental relation with different forms, including Heisenberg's uncertainty relation and Schrödinger's uncertainty relation. In this paper, we prove a Schrödinger-type uncertainty relation in terms of generalized metric adjusted skew information and correlation measure by using operator monotone functions, which reads, U_ρ ^{(g,f)}(A)U_ρ ^{(g,f)}(B)≥ f(0)^2l/k| {Corr}_ρ ^{s(g,f)}(A,B)| ^2 for some operator monotone functions f and g, all n-dimensional observables A, B and a non-singular density matrix ρ . As applications, we derive some new uncertainty relations for Wigner-Yanase skew information and Wigner-Yanase-Dyson skew information.
Visualizing seismic risk and uncertainty: a review of related research.
Bostrom, Ann; Anselin, Luc; Farris, Jeremy
2008-04-01
Government agencies and other authorities often communicate earthquake risks using maps derived from geographic information systems. Yet, little is known about the effects of these maps on risk perceptions. While mental models research and other approaches are available to inform risk communication text design, similar empirically derived guidance is lacking for visual risk communications, such as maps, which are likely to trump text in their impact and appeal. This paper reviews the empirical research that might inform such guidance. Research on graphs, spatial and visual perception, and map design suggests that graphics increase risk avoidance over numerical risk representations, and countable visuals, like dots, can increase the accuracy of perceived risks, but not always. Cartographic design features, such as color, animation, interactivity, and depth cues, are all candidates to represent risk and uncertainty and to influence risk perception. While there are robust known effects of color (e.g., red = danger), with some cultural variability, animation can increase the salience of otherwise obscure features but is not uniformly effective. Depth cues, dimensionality, and the extent to which a representation depicts versus symbolizes a scene will influence the viewer's perspective and perception, depending on the viewer's familiarity with the scene; their effects on risk perception remain unclear. The translation and representation of technical information about risk and uncertainty is critical to risk communication effectiveness. Our review suggests a handful of candidate criteria for evaluating the effects of risk visualizations, short of changes in behavior: accuracy, accessibility, retention, and perceived risk and usefulness.
Garde, Anne Helene; Hansen, Ase Marie; Kristiansen, Jesper
2004-01-01
When measuring biomarkers in urine, volume (and time) or concentration of creatinine are both accepted methods of standardization for diuresis. Both types of standardization contribute uncertainty to the final result. The aim of the present paper was to compare the uncertainty introduced when using...... the two types of standardization on 24 h samples from healthy individuals. Estimates of uncertainties were based on results from the literature supplemented with data from our own studies. Only the difference in uncertainty related to the two standardization methods was evaluated. It was found...... increase in convenience for the participants, when collecting small volumes rather than complete 24 h samples....
Fjell, Anders M; Westlye, Lars T; Amlien, Inge; Tamnes, Christian K; Grydeland, Håkon; Engvig, Andreas; Espeseth, Thomas; Reinvang, Ivar; Lundervold, Astri J; Lundervold, Arvid; Walhovd, Kristine B
2015-01-01
Cortical surface area has tremendously expanded during human evolution, and similar patterns of cortical expansion have been observed during childhood development. An intriguing hypothesis is that the high-expanding cortical regions also show the strongest correlations with intellectual function in humans. However, we do not know how the regional distribution of correlations between intellectual function and cortical area maps onto expansion in development and evolution. Here, in a sample of 1048 participants, we show that regions in which cortical area correlates with visuospatial reasoning abilities are generally high expanding in both development and evolution. Several regions in the frontal cortex, especially the anterior cingulate, showed high expansion in both development and evolution. The area of these regions was related to intellectual functions in humans. Low-expanding areas were not related to cognitive scores. These findings suggest that cortical regions involved in higher intellectual functions have expanded the most during development and evolution. The radial unit hypothesis provides a common framework for interpretation of the findings in the context of evolution and prenatal development, while additional cellular mechanisms, such as synaptogenesis, gliogenesis, dendritic arborization, and intracortical myelination, likely impact area expansion in later childhood.
Position-momentum uncertainty relations in the presence of quantum memory
Furrer, Fabian; Berta, Mario; Tomamichel, Marco
2014-01-01
A prominent formulation of the uncertainty principle identifies the fundamental quantum feature that no particle may be prepared with certain outcomes for both position and momentum measurements. Often the statistical uncertainties are thereby measured in terms of entropies providing a clear...... operational interpretation in information theory and cryptography. Recently, entropic uncertainty relations have been used to show that the uncertainty can be reduced in the presence of entanglement and to prove security of quantum cryptographic tasks. However, much of this recent progress has been focused....... As an illustration, we evaluate the uncertainty relations for position and momentum measurements, which is operationally significant in that it implies security of a quantum key distribution scheme based on homodyne detection of squeezed Gaussian states....
Garde, Anne Helene; Hansen, Ase Marie; Kristiansen, Jesper;
2004-01-01
When measuring biomarkers in urine, volume (and time) or concentration of creatinine are both accepted methods of standardization for diuresis. Both types of standardization contribute uncertainty to the final result. The aim of the present paper was to compare the uncertainty introduced when using...... that the uncertainty associated with creatinine standardization (19-35%) was higher than the uncertainty related to volume standardization (up to 10%, when not correcting for deviations from 24 h) for 24 h urine samples. However, volume standardization introduced an average bias of 4% due to missed volumes...... in population studies. When studying a single 24 h sample from one individual, there was a 15-20% risk that the sample was incomplete. In this case a bias of approximately 25% was introduced when using volume standardization, whereas the uncertainty related to creatinine standardization was independent...
Do the Uncertainty Relations Really have Crucial Signiﬁcances for Physics?
Dumitru S.
2010-10-01
Full Text Available It is proved the falsity of idea that the Uncertainty Relations (UR have crucial signif- icances for physics. Additionally one argues for the necesity of an UR-disconnected quantum philosophy.
Time-dependent q-deformed bi-coherent states for generalized uncertainty relations
Gouba, Laure
2015-07-01
We consider the time-dependent bi-coherent states that are essentially the Gazeau-Klauder coherent states for the two dimensional noncommutative harmonic oscillator. Starting from some q-deformations of the oscillator algebra for which the entire deformed Fock space can be constructed explicitly, we define the q-deformed bi-coherent states. We verify the generalized Heisenberg's uncertainty relations projected onto these states. For the initial value in time, the states are shown to satisfy a generalized version of Heisenberg's uncertainty relations. For the initial value in time and for the parameter of noncommutativity θ = 0, the inequalities are saturated for the simultaneous measurement of the position-momentum observables. When the time evolves, the uncertainty products are different from their values at the initial time and do not always respect the generalized uncertainty relations.
Ahn, Kuk-Hyun; Merwade, Venkatesh; Ojha, C. S. P.; Palmer, Richard N.
2016-11-01
In spite of recent popularity for investigating human-induced climate change in regional areas, understanding the contributors to the relative uncertainties in the process remains unclear. To remedy this, this study presents a statistical framework to quantify relative uncertainties in a detection and attribution study. Primary uncertainty contributors are categorized into three types: climate data, hydrologic, and detection uncertainties. While an ensemble of climate models is used to define climate data uncertainty, hydrologic uncertainty is defined using a Bayesian approach. Before relative uncertainties in the detection and attribution study are quantified, an optimal fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis is employed to investigate changes in winter streamflow in the Connecticut River Basin, which is located in the Eastern United States. Results indicate that winter streamflow over a period of 64 years (1950-2013) lies outside the range expected from natural variability of climate alone with a 90% confidence interval in the climate models. Investigation of relative uncertainties shows that the uncertainty linked to the climate data is greater than the uncertainty induced by hydrologic modeling. Detection uncertainty, defined as the uncertainty related to time evolution of the anthropogenic climate change in the historical data (signal) above the natural internal climate variability (noise), shows that uncertainties in natural internal climate variability (piControl) scenarios may be the source of the significant degree of uncertainty in the regional Detection and Attribution study.
Position-momentum uncertainty relations in the presence of quantum memory
Furrer, Fabian, E-mail: furrer@eve.phys.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Department of Physics, Graduate School of Science, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Berta, Mario [Institute for Quantum Information and Matter, Caltech, Pasadena, California 91125 (United States); Institute for Theoretical Physics, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Str. 27, 8093 Zürich (Switzerland); Tomamichel, Marco [School of Physics, The University of Sydney, Sydney 2006 (Australia); Centre for Quantum Technologies, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117543 (Singapore); Scholz, Volkher B. [Institute for Theoretical Physics, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Str. 27, 8093 Zürich (Switzerland); Christandl, Matthias [Institute for Theoretical Physics, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Str. 27, 8093 Zürich (Switzerland); Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 5, 2100 Copenhagen (Denmark)
2014-12-15
A prominent formulation of the uncertainty principle identifies the fundamental quantum feature that no particle may be prepared with certain outcomes for both position and momentum measurements. Often the statistical uncertainties are thereby measured in terms of entropies providing a clear operational interpretation in information theory and cryptography. Recently, entropic uncertainty relations have been used to show that the uncertainty can be reduced in the presence of entanglement and to prove security of quantum cryptographic tasks. However, much of this recent progress has been focused on observables with only a finite number of outcomes not including Heisenberg’s original setting of position and momentum observables. Here, we show entropic uncertainty relations for general observables with discrete but infinite or continuous spectrum that take into account the power of an entangled observer. As an illustration, we evaluate the uncertainty relations for position and momentum measurements, which is operationally significant in that it implies security of a quantum key distribution scheme based on homodyne detection of squeezed Gaussian states.
Le, Yen-Chi; Aune, Krystyna S.
2012-01-01
This study examined the relationship between relational uncertainty and perceptions of division of household labor (DHL) in cohabiting and married couples. Specifically, research questions explored perceived fairness in DHL and relational uncertainty, perceptual convergence of contributions, convergence of perceptions and relational uncertainty, and convergence of perceptions and relationship satisfaction. A behavioral methodology called the Household Portrait Technique was employed to examine how couples discuss how they decide who does what in the household. A total of 33 couples independently completed a self-report instrument and jointly participated in the Household Portrait activity. Results showed that husbands and wives were agreed in their perceptions of fairness. Couples agreed that husbands do more of the outdoor work and automobile maintenance whereas wives do more of the childcare. Convergent perceptions regarding DHL was positively associated with relational certainty and marginally associated with relationship satisfaction. PMID:25083172
Krystyna S. Aune
2011-12-01
Full Text Available This study examined the relationship between relational uncertainty and perceptions of division of household labor (DHL in cohabiting and married couples. Specifically, research questions explored perceived fairness in DHL and relational uncertainty, perceptual convergence of contributions, convergence of perceptions and relational uncertainty, and convergence of perceptions and relationship satisfaction. A behavioral methodology called the Household Portrait Technique was employed to examine how couples discuss how they decide who does what in the household. A total of 33 couples independently completed a self-report instrument and jointly participated in the Household Portrait activity. Results showed that husbands and wives were agreed in their perceptions of fairness. Couples agreed that husbands do more of the outdoor work and automobile maintenance whereas wives do more of the childcare. Convergent perceptions regarding DHL was positively associated with relational certainty and marginally associated with relationship satisfaction.
Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Yu, Weiwei; Tong, Shilu
2015-02-01
Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Mentoring Support and Relational Uncertainty in the Advisor-Advisee Relationship
Mansson, Daniel H.; Myers, Scott A.
2013-01-01
We examine the extent to which career mentoring and psychosocial mentoring received from their advisors relates to advisee perceptions of advisor-advisee relational uncertainty. Doctoral students (N = 378) completed the "Academic Mentoring Behaviors Scale" (Schrodt, Cawyer, & Sanders, 2003), the "Mentoring and Communication…
Mentoring Support and Relational Uncertainty in the Advisor-Advisee Relationship
Mansson, Daniel H.; Myers, Scott A.
2013-01-01
We examine the extent to which career mentoring and psychosocial mentoring received from their advisors relates to advisee perceptions of advisor-advisee relational uncertainty. Doctoral students (N = 378) completed the "Academic Mentoring Behaviors Scale" (Schrodt, Cawyer, & Sanders, 2003), the "Mentoring and Communication…
Uncertainties Related to Extreme Event Statistics of Sewer System Surcharge and Overflow
Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld; Johansen, C.; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke
2005-01-01
by performing long term simulations - using a sewer flow simulation model - and draw up extreme event statistics from the model simulations. In this context it is important to realize that uncertainties related to the input parameters of rainfall runoff models will give rise to uncertainties related...... to draw up extreme event statistics covering return periods of as much as 33 years. By comparing these two different extreme event statistics it is evident that these to a great extent depend on the uncertainties related to the input parameters of the rainfall runoff model....... proceeding in an acceptable manner, if flooding of these levels is having an average return period bigger than a predefined value. This practice is also often used in functional analysis of existing sewer systems. If a sewer system can fulfil recommended flooding frequencies or not, can only be verified...
Uncertainty Relations and Sparse Signal Recovery for Pairs of General Signal Sets
Kuppinger, Patrick; Bölcskei, Helmut
2011-01-01
We present an uncertainty relation for the representation of signals in two different general (possibly redundant or incomplete) signal sets. This uncertainty relation is relevant for the analysis of signals containing two distinct features each of which can be described sparsely in a suitable general signal set. Furthermore, the new uncertainty relation is shown to lead to improved sparsity thresholds for recovery of signals that are sparse in general dictionaries. Specifically, our results improve on the well-known $(1+1/d)/2$-threshold for dictionaries with coherence $d$ by up to a factor of two. Furthermore, we provide probabilistic recovery guarantees for pairs of general dictionaries that also allow us to understand which parts of a general dictionary one needs to randomize over to "weed out" the sparsity patterns that prohibit breaking the square-root bottleneck.
Time-dependent q-deformed coherent states for generalized uncertainty relations
Dey, Sanjib; Gouba, Laure; Castro, Paulo G
2012-01-01
We investigate properties of generalized time-dependent q-deformed coherent states for a noncommutative harmonic oscillator. The states are shown to satisfy a generalized version of Heisenberg's uncertainty relations. For the initial value in time the states are demonstrated to be squeezed, i.e. the inequalities are saturated, whereas when time evolves the uncertainty product oscillates away from this value albeit still respecting the relations. For the canonical variables on a noncommutative space we verify explicitly that Ehrenfest's theorem hold at all times. We conjecture that the model exhibits revival times to infinite order. Explicit sample computations for the fractional revival times and superrevival times are presented.
One-parameter class of uncertainty relations based on entropy power
Jizba, Petr; Ma, Yue; Hayes, Anthony; Dunningham, Jacob A.
2016-06-01
We use the concept of entropy power to derive a one-parameter class of information-theoretic uncertainty relations for pairs of conjugate observables in an infinite-dimensional Hilbert space. This class constitutes an infinite tower of higher-order statistics uncertainty relations, which allows one in principle to determine the shape of the underlying information-distribution function by measuring the relevant entropy powers. We illustrate the capability of this class by discussing two examples: superpositions of vacuum and squeezed states and the Cauchy-type heavy-tailed wave function.
LI Zuoyong; PENG Lihong
2004-01-01
This paper analyses the intrinsic relationship between the BP network learning ability and generalization ability and other influencing factors when the overfit occurs, and introduces the multiple correlation coefficient to describe the complexity of samples; it follows the calculation uncertainty principle and the minimum principle of neural network structural design, provides an analogy of the general uncertainty relation in the information transfer process, and ascertains the uncertainty relation between the training relative error of the training sample set, which reflects the network learning ability,and the test relative error of the test sample set, which represents the network generalization ability; through the simulation of BP network overfit numerical modeling test with different types of functions, it is ascertained that the overfit parameter q in the relation generally has a span of 7×10-3 to 7 × 10-2; the uncertainty relation then helps to obtain the formula for calculating the number of hidden nodes of a network with good generalization ability under the condition that multiple correlation coefficient is used to describe sample complexity and the given approximation error requirement is satisfied;the rationality of this formula is verified; this paper also points out that applying the BP network to the training process of the given sample set is the best method for stopping training that improves the generalization ability.
Complementarity and the Nature of Uncertainty Relations in Einstein–Bohr Recoiling Slit Experiment
Shogo Tanimura
2015-07-01
Full Text Available A model of the Einstein–Bohr recoiling slit experiment is formulated in a fully quantum theoretical setting. In this model, the state and dynamics of a movable wall that has two slits in it, as well as the state of a particle incoming to the two slits, are described by quantum mechanics. Using this model, we analyzed complementarity between exhibiting an interference pattern and distinguishing the particle path. Comparing the Kennard–Robertson type and the Ozawa-type uncertainty relations, we conclude that the uncertainty relation involved in the double-slit experiment is not the Ozawa-type uncertainty relation but the Kennard-type uncertainty relation of the position and the momentum of the double-slit wall. A possible experiment to test the complementarity relation is suggested. It is also argued that various phenomena which occur at the interface of a quantum system and a classical system, including distinguishability, interference, decoherence, quantum eraser, and weak value, can be understood as aspects of entanglement.Quanta 2015; 4: 1–9.
Bird-landscape relations in the Chihuahuan Desert: Coping with uncertainties about predictive models
Gutzwiller, K.J.; Barrow, W.C.
2001-01-01
During the springs of 1995-1997, we studied birds and landscapes in the Chihuahuan Desert along part of the Texas-Mexico border. Our objectives were to assess bird-landscape relations and their interannual consistency and to identify ways to cope with associated uncertainties that undermine confidence in using such relations in conservation decision processes. Bird distributions were often significantly associated with landscape features, and many bird-landscape models were valid and useful for predictive purposes. Differences in early spring rainfall appeared to influence bird abundance, but there was no evidence that annual differences in bird abundance affected model consistency. Model consistency for richness (42%) was higher than mean model consistency for 26 focal species (mean 30%, range 0-67%), suggesting that relations involving individual species are, on average, more subject to factors that cause variation than are richness-landscape relations. Consistency of bird-landscape relations may be influenced by such factors as plant succession, exotic species invasion, bird species' tolerances for environmental variation, habitat occupancy patterns, and variation in food density or weather. The low model consistency that we observed for most species indicates the high variation in bird-landscape relations that managers and other decision makers may encounter. The uncertainty of interannual variation in bird-landscape relations can be reduced by using projections of bird distributions from different annual models to determine the likely range of temporal and spatial variation in a species' distribution. Stochastic simulation models can be used to incorporate the uncertainty of random environmental variation into predictions of bird distributions based on bird-landscape relations and to provide probabilistic projections with which managers can weigh the costs and benefits of various decisions, Uncertainty about the true structure of bird-landscape relations
Event-by-event simulation of single-neutron experiments to test uncertainty relations
De Raedt, H.; Michielsen, K.
2014-01-01
Results from a discrete-event simulation of a recent single-neutron experiment that tests Ozawa's generalization of Heisenberg's uncertainty relation are presented. The event-based simulation algorithm reproduces the results of the quantum theoretical description of the experiment but does not requi
Experimental test of error-disturbance uncertainty relations by weak measurement.
Kaneda, Fumihiro; Baek, So-Young; Ozawa, Masanao; Edamatsu, Keiichi
2014-01-17
We experimentally test the error-disturbance uncertainty relation (EDR) in generalized, strength-variable measurement of a single photon polarization qubit, making use of weak measurement that keeps the initial signal state practically unchanged. We demonstrate that the Heisenberg EDR is violated, yet the Ozawa and Branciard EDRs are valid throughout the range of our measurement strength.
Damage functions for climate-related hazards: unification and uncertainty analysis
Prahl, Boris F.; Rybski, Diego; Boettle, Markus; Kropp, Jürgen P.
2016-05-01
Most climate change impacts manifest in the form of natural hazards. Damage assessment typically relies on damage functions that translate the magnitude of extreme events to a quantifiable damage. In practice, the availability of damage functions is limited due to a lack of data sources and a lack of understanding of damage processes. The study of the characteristics of damage functions for different hazards could strengthen the theoretical foundation of damage functions and support their development and validation. Accordingly, we investigate analogies of damage functions for coastal flooding and for wind storms and identify a unified approach. This approach has general applicability for granular portfolios and may also be applied, for example, to heat-related mortality. Moreover, the unification enables the transfer of methodology between hazards and a consistent treatment of uncertainty. This is demonstrated by a sensitivity analysis on the basis of two simple case studies (for coastal flood and storm damage). The analysis reveals the relevance of the various uncertainty sources at varying hazard magnitude and on both the microscale and the macroscale level. Main findings are the dominance of uncertainty from the hazard magnitude and the persistent behaviour of intrinsic uncertainties on both scale levels. Our results shed light on the general role of uncertainties and provide useful insight for the application of the unified approach.
Liang Xue
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Reservoir simulations always involve a large number of parameters to characterize the properties of formation and fluid, many of which are subject to uncertainties owing to spatial heterogeneity and insufficient measurements. To provide solutions to uncertainty-related issues in reservoir simulations, a general package called GenPack has been developed. GenPack includes three main functions required for full stochastic analysis in petroleum engineering, generation of random parameter fields, predictive uncertainty quantifications and automatic history matching. GenPack, which was developed in a modularized manner, is a non-intrusive package which can be integrated with any existing commercial simulator in petroleum engineering to facilitate its application. Computational efficiency can be improved both theoretically by introducing a surrogate model-based probabilistic collocation method, and technically by using parallel computing. A series of synthetic cases are designed to demonstrate the capability of GenPack. The test results show that the random parameter field can be flexibly generated in a customized manner for petroleum engineering applications. The predictive uncertainty can be reasonably quantified and the computational efficiency is significantly improved. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF-based automatic history matching method can improve predictive accuracy and reduce the corresponding predictive uncertainty by accounting for observations.
Seed and Root Endophytic Fungi in a Range Expanding and a Related Plant Species
Stefan Geisen
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Climate change is accelerating the spread of plants and their associated species to new ranges. The differences in range shift capacity of the various types of species may disrupt long-term co-evolved relationships especially those belowground, however, this may be less so for seed-borne endophytic microbes. We collected seeds and soil of the range-expanding Centaurea stoebe and the congeneric Centaurea jacea from three populations growing in Slovenia (native range of both Centaurea species and the Netherlands (expanded range of C. stoebe, native range of C. jacea. We isolated and identified endophytic fungi directly from seeds, as well as from roots of the plants grown in Slovenian, Dutch or sterilized soil to compare fungal endophyte composition. Furthermore, we investigated whether C. stoebe hosts a reduced community composition of endophytes in the expanded range due to release from plant-species specific fungi while endophyte communities in C. jacea in both ranges are similar. We cultivated 46 unique and phylogenetically diverse endophytes. A majority of the seed endophytes resembled potential pathogens, while most root endophytes were not likely to be pathogenic. Only one endophyte was found in both roots and seeds, but was isolated from different plant species. Unexpectedly, seed endophyte diversity of southern C. stoebe populations was lower than of populations from the north, while the seed endophyte community composition of northern C. stoebe populations was significantly different southern C. stoebe as well as northern and southern C. jacea populations. Root endophyte diversity was considerably lower in C. stoebe than in C. jacea independent of plant and soil origin, but this difference disappeared when plants were grown in sterile soils. We conclude that the community composition of fungal endophytes not only differs between related plant species but also between populations of plants that expand their range compared to their native
Li, B.; Lee, H. C.; Duan, X.; Shen, C.; Zhou, L.; Jia, X.; Yang, M.
2017-09-01
The dual-energy CT-based (DECT) approach holds promise in reducing the overall uncertainty in proton stopping-power-ratio (SPR) estimation as compared to the conventional stoichiometric calibration approach. The objective of this study was to analyze the factors contributing to uncertainty in SPR estimation using the DECT-based approach and to derive a comprehensive estimate of the range uncertainty associated with SPR estimation in treatment planning. Two state-of-the-art DECT-based methods were selected and implemented on a Siemens SOMATOM Force DECT scanner. The uncertainties were first divided into five independent categories. The uncertainty associated with each category was estimated for lung, soft and bone tissues separately. A single composite uncertainty estimate was eventually determined for three tumor sites (lung, prostate and head-and-neck) by weighting the relative proportion of each tissue group for that specific site. The uncertainties associated with the two selected DECT methods were found to be similar, therefore the following results applied to both methods. The overall uncertainty (1σ) in SPR estimation with the DECT-based approach was estimated to be 3.8%, 1.2% and 2.0% for lung, soft and bone tissues, respectively. The dominant factor contributing to uncertainty in the DECT approach was the imaging uncertainties, followed by the DECT modeling uncertainties. Our study showed that the DECT approach can reduce the overall range uncertainty to approximately 2.2% (2σ) in clinical scenarios, in contrast to the previously reported 1%.
S-Denying of the Signature Conditions Expands General Relativity's Space
Rabounski D.
2006-07-01
Full Text Available We apply the S-denying procedure to signature conditions in a four-dimensional pseudo-Riemannian space — i. e. we change one (or even all of the conditions to be partially true and partially false. We obtain five kinds of expanded space-time for General Relativity. Kind I permits the space-time to be in collapse. Kind II permits the space-time to change its own signature. Kind III has peculiarities, linked to the third signature condition. Kind IV permits regions where the metric fully degenerates: there may be non-quantum teleportation, and a home for virtual photons. Kind V is common for kinds I, II, III, and IV.
Parameters-related uncertainty in modeling sugar cane yield with an agro-Land Surface Model
Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Ruget, F.; Gabrielle, B.
2012-12-01
Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the coupling of specific crop models and large-scale generic vegetation models. They aim at accounting for the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with a particular emphasis on how crop phenology and agricultural management practice influence the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty in these models is related to the many parameters included in the models' equations. In this study, we quantify the parameter-based uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS on a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Reunion and Brazil. First, the main source of uncertainty for the output variables NPP, GPP, and sensible heat flux (SH) is determined through a screening of the main parameters of the model on a multi-site basis leading to the selection of a subset of most sensitive parameters causing most of the uncertainty. In a second step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters selected from the screening analysis at a regional scale. For this, a Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used. First, we quantify the sensitivity of the output variables to individual input parameters on a regional scale for two regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Then, we quantify the overall uncertainty in the simulation's outputs propagated from the uncertainty in the input parameters. Seven parameters are identified by the screening procedure as driving most of the uncertainty in the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS model output at all sites. These parameters control photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), root
Status of Occupational Health and Safety and Related Challenges in Expanding Economy of Tanzania.
Mrema, Ezra J; Ngowi, Aiwerasia V; Mamuya, Simon H D
2015-01-01
Occupational health and safety is related with economic activities undertaken in the country. As the economic activities grow and expand, occupational injuries and diseases are more likely to increase among workers in different sectors of economy such as agriculture, mining, transport, and manufacture. This may result in high occupational health and safety services demand, which might be difficult to meet by developing countries that are prioritizing economic expansion without regard to their impact on occupational health and safety. To describe the status of occupational health and safety in Tanzania and outline the challenges in provision of occupational health services under the state of an expanding economy. Tanzania's economy is growing steadily, with growth being driven by communications, transport, financial intermediation, construction, mining, agriculture, and manufacturing. Along with this growth, hazards emanating from work in all sectors of the economy have increased and varied. The workers exposed to these hazards suffer from illness and injuries and yet they are not provided with adequate occupational health services. Services are scanty and limited to a few enterprises that can afford it. Existing laws and regulations are not comprehensive enough to cover the entire population. Implementation of legislation is weak and does not protect the workers. Most Tanzanians are not covered by the occupational health and safety law and do not access occupational health services. Thus an occupational health and safety services strategy, backed by legislations and provided with the necessary resources (competent experts, financial and technological resources), is a necessity in Tanzania. The existing legal provisions require major modifications to meet international requirements and standards. OHS regulations and legislations need refocusing, revision, and strengthening to cover all working population. Capacities should be improved through training and research
Yang, Xianglin; Gu, Jiaojiao; Yan, Hong; Xu, Zhi; Ren, Bing; Yang, Yaming; Yang, Xiaodong; Chen, Qi; Tan, Shaohua
2014-01-01
We used bibliometric analysis methodology in the expanded Science Citation Index to identify highly-cited electrocardiogram (ECG)-related articles with total citations (TC2012) exceeding 100 from the publication year to 2012. Web of Science search tools were used to identify the highly-cited articles. The aspects analyzed for highly cited publications included effect of time on citation analysis, journals and Web of Science categories, number of authors per publication, originating institutions and countries, total citation and total citation per year life cycles of articles (C2012) and research hotspots. Results showed that a total of 467 electrocardiogram-related publications were regarded as the highly-cited publications. TC2012 ranged from 101 to 2879, with 215 as the average number of citations. No highly-cited publications have emerged yet during the first two years of the present 2010 Decade. All 11 countries and institutions originating highly-cited ECG-related publications were developed countries, USA in 9 of them. Four subject categories were identified as hotspots by total citations TC2012 and C2012: atrial fibrillation, long QT syndrome, angina and myocardial infarction, and risk factor analysis and health evaluation.
Le, Thinh Phuc; Scarani, Valerio
2011-01-01
We define a family of reference-frame-independent quantum cryptography protocols for arbitrary dimensional signals. The generalized entropic uncertainty relations [M. Tomamichel and R. Renner, Phys. Rev. Lett. 106, 110506 (2011)] are used for the first time to derive security bounds for protocols which use more than two measurements and combine the statistics in a non-linear parameter. This shows the power and versatility of this technique compared to the heavier, though usually tighter, conventional techniques.
The small sample uncertainty aspect in relation to bullwhip effect measurement
Nielsen, Erland Hejn
2009-01-01
a conceptual phenomenon. This paper intends primarily to investigate why this might be so and thereby investigate the various aspects, possibilities and obstacles that must be taken into account, when considering the potential practical use and measure of the bullwhip effect in order to actually get the supply...... chain under control. This paper will put special emphasis on the unavoidable small-sample uncertainty aspects relating to the measurement or estimation of the bullwhip effect. ...
Comment on ''Improved bounds on entropic uncertainty relations''
Bosyk, G. M.; Portesi, M.; Plastino, A.; Zozor, S. [Instituto de Fisica La Plata (IFLP, CONICET), and Departamento de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, C.C. 67, 1900 La Plata (Argentina); Laboratoire Grenoblois d' Image, Parole, Signal et Automatique (GIPSA-Lab, CNRS), 961 rue de la Houille Blanche, F-38402 Saint Martin d' Heres (France)
2011-11-15
We provide an analytical proof of the entropic uncertainty relations presented by J. I. de Vicente and J. Sanchez-Ruiz [Phys. Rev. A 77, 042110 (2008)] and also show that the replacement of Eq. (27) by Eq. (29) in that reference introduces solutions that do not take fully into account the constraints of the problem, which in turn lead to some mistakes in their treatment.
Relating Streamflow Depletion to Groundwater Pumpage in the Context of Uncertainty
Brakefield, L. K.; White, J.
2015-12-01
Interaction between groundwater and surface-water systems is an inherently complex process, especially in the context of relating groundwater use to local- scale stream flow characteristics. An integrated hydrologic model (MODFLOW with SWR process) is being developed for the lower San Antonio River Basin in Texas to assess how water use affects the groundwater contribution to stream flow under hypothetical and observed climate scenarios. The basin traverses several dipping aquifer systems and water from these systems is relied on for residential, recreational, industrial, and agricultural uses, as well as oil and gas activities. The current (2015) understanding of interaction between the two hydrologic systems within the basin is limited, but indicates considerable variability in space and time. The modeling analysis is designed to provide improved understanding of spatial and temporal characteristics of interaction under different hydrologic conditions, such as the drought conditions experienced from 2011 through 2013. Due to paucity of data and limited current understanding of interaction between the two hydrologic systems, model results will be inherently uncertain, making uncertainty analysis of paramount importance in the model development and use. As such, linear-based uncertainty analyses, also known as first-order, second-moment analysis, are being used to design the parameterization and objective function prior to the computationally-expensive history-matching process. For this process, we use pyEMU, an open-source python module for linear-based computer model uncertainty analysis. Results show that the prior uncertainty in model inputs yield largely uncertain local-scale interaction estimates. However, by appropriately designing the objective function and parameterization to be aligned with the focus of the modeling analysis, the posterior uncertainty of many local-scale interaction estimates can be reduced.
Rami, El-Nabulsi Ahmad [Department of Nuclear and Energy Engineering, Cheju National University, Ara-dong 1, Jeju 690-756 (Korea, Republic of)], E-mail: nabulsiahmadrami@yahoo.fr
2009-10-15
It was showed that the minimal length Heisenberg-Weyl uncertainty relation may be obtained if the ordinary momentum differentiation operator is extended to its fractional counterpart, namely the generalized fractional Riccati momentum operator of order 0 < {beta} {<=} 1. Some interesting consequences are exposed in concordance with the UV/IR correspondence obtained within the framework of non-commutative C-space geometry, string theory, Rovelli loop quantum gravity, Amelino-Camelia doubly special relativity, Nottale scale relativity and El-Naschie Cantorian fractal spacetime. The fractional theory integrates an absolute minimal length and surprisingly a non-commutative position space.
Mockler, E. M.; Chun, K. P.; Sapriza-Azuri, G.; Bruen, M.; Wheater, H. S.
2016-11-01
Predictions of river flow dynamics provide vital information for many aspects of water management including water resource planning, climate adaptation, and flood and drought assessments. Many of the subjective choices that modellers make including model and criteria selection can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of the output uncertainty. Hydrological modellers are tasked with understanding and minimising the uncertainty surrounding streamflow predictions before communicating the overall uncertainty to decision makers. Parameter uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff models has been widely investigated, and model structural uncertainty and forcing data have been receiving increasing attention. This study aimed to assess uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to forcing data and the identification of behavioural parameter sets in 31 Irish catchments. By combining stochastic rainfall ensembles and multiple parameter sets for three conceptual rainfall-runoff models, an analysis of variance model was used to decompose the total uncertainty in streamflow simulations into contributions from (i) forcing data, (ii) identification of model parameters and (iii) interactions between the two. The analysis illustrates that, for our subjective choices, hydrological model selection had a greater contribution to overall uncertainty, while performance criteria selection influenced the relative intra-annual uncertainties in streamflow predictions. Uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to the method of determining parameters were relatively lower for wetter catchments, and more evenly distributed throughout the year when the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of logarithmic values of flow (lnNSE) was the evaluation criterion.
Yu, Min; Fang, Mao-Fa
2017-09-01
The dynamic properties of the quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation for a system comprised of a qubit to be measured and a memory qubit are investigated. We explore the behaviors of the entropic uncertainty and its lower bound in three different cases: Only one of the two qubits interacts with an external environment and subjects to quantum-jump-based feedback control, or both of the two qubits independently experience their own environments and local quantum-jump-based feedback control. Our results reveal that the quantum-jump-based feedback control with an appropriate feedback parameter can reduce the entropic uncertainty and its lower bound, and for the three different scenarios, the reduction in the uncertainty relates to different physical quantities. Besides, we find out that the quantum-jump-based feedback control not only can remarkably decrease the entropic uncertainty, but also can make the uncertainty reach its lower bound where the dynamical map becomes unital.
Genomics of crop wild relatives: expanding the gene pool for crop improvement.
Brozynska, Marta; Furtado, Agnelo; Henry, Robert J
2016-04-01
Plant breeders require access to new genetic diversity to satisfy the demands of a growing human population for more food that can be produced in a variable or changing climate and to deliver the high-quality food with nutritional and health benefits demanded by consumers. The close relatives of domesticated plants, crop wild relatives (CWRs), represent a practical gene pool for use by plant breeders. Genomics of CWR generates data that support the use of CWR to expand the genetic diversity of crop plants. Advances in DNA sequencing technology are enabling the efficient sequencing of CWR and their increased use in crop improvement. As the sequencing of genomes of major crop species is completed, attention has shifted to analysis of the wider gene pool of major crops including CWR. A combination of de novo sequencing and resequencing is required to efficiently explore useful genetic variation in CWR. Analysis of the nuclear genome, transcriptome and maternal (chloroplast and mitochondrial) genome of CWR is facilitating their use in crop improvement. Genome analysis results in discovery of useful alleles in CWR and identification of regions of the genome in which diversity has been lost in domestication bottlenecks. Targeting of high priority CWR for sequencing will maximize the contribution of genome sequencing of CWR. Coordination of global efforts to apply genomics has the potential to accelerate access to and conservation of the biodiversity essential to the sustainability of agriculture and food production.
Energy levels of one-dimensional systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation
Bernardo, Reginald Christian S.; Esguerra, Jose Perico H.
2016-10-01
The standard approach to calculating the energy levels for quantum systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation is to solve an eigenvalue problem involving a fourth- or higher-order differential equation in quasiposition space. It is shown that the problem can be reformulated so that the energy levels of these systems can be obtained by solving only a second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation. Through this formulation the energy levels are calculated for the following potentials: particle in a box, harmonic oscillator, Pöschl-Teller well, Gaussian well, and double-Gaussian well. For the particle in a box, the second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation is a second-order differential equation with constant coefficients. For the harmonic oscillator, Pöschl-Teller well, Gaussian well, and double-Gaussian well, a method that involves using Wronskians has been used to solve the second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation. It is observed for all of these quantum systems that the introduction of a nonzero minimal length uncertainty induces a positive shift in the energy levels. It is shown that the calculation of energy levels in systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation is not limited to a small number of problems like particle in a box and the harmonic oscillator but can be extended to a wider class of problems involving potentials such as the Pöschl-Teller and Gaussian wells.
Energy levels of one-dimensional systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation
Bernardo, Reginald Christian S., E-mail: rcbernardo@nip.upd.edu.ph; Esguerra, Jose Perico H., E-mail: jesguerra@nip.upd.edu.ph
2016-10-15
The standard approach to calculating the energy levels for quantum systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation is to solve an eigenvalue problem involving a fourth- or higher-order differential equation in quasiposition space. It is shown that the problem can be reformulated so that the energy levels of these systems can be obtained by solving only a second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation. Through this formulation the energy levels are calculated for the following potentials: particle in a box, harmonic oscillator, Pöschl–Teller well, Gaussian well, and double-Gaussian well. For the particle in a box, the second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation is a second-order differential equation with constant coefficients. For the harmonic oscillator, Pöschl–Teller well, Gaussian well, and double-Gaussian well, a method that involves using Wronskians has been used to solve the second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation. It is observed for all of these quantum systems that the introduction of a nonzero minimal length uncertainty induces a positive shift in the energy levels. It is shown that the calculation of energy levels in systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation is not limited to a small number of problems like particle in a box and the harmonic oscillator but can be extended to a wider class of problems involving potentials such as the Pöschl–Teller and Gaussian wells.
Regeneration decisions in forestry under climate change related uncertainties and risks
Schou, Erik; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl
2015-01-01
Future climate development and its effects on forest ecosystems are not easily predicted or described in terms of standard probability concepts. Nevertheless, forest managers continuously make long-term decisions that will be subject to climate change impacts. The manager's assessment of possible...... developments and impacts and the related uncertainty will affect the combined decision on timing of final harvest and the choice of species for regeneration. We analyse harvest of a Norway spruce stand with the option to regenerate with Norway spruce or oak. We use simulated variations in biophysical risks......) assigned to each outcome. Results show that the later a forest manager expects to obtain certainty about climate change or the more skewed their belief distribution, the more will decisions be based on ex ante assessments — suggesting that if forest managers believe that climate change uncertainty...
van Dongen, Jeroen
2015-01-01
The Einstein-Rupp experiments have been unduly neglected in the history of quantum mechanics. While this is to be explained by the fact that Emil Rupp was later exposed as a fraud and had fabricated the results, it is not justified, due to the importance attached to the experiments at the time. This paper discusses Rupp's fraud, the relation between Albert Einstein and Rupp, and the Einstein-Rupp experiments, and argues that these experiments were an influence on Niels Bohr's development of complementarity and Werner Heisenberg's formulation of the uncertainty relations.
Experimental violation and reformulation of the Heisenberg's error-disturbance uncertainty relation.
Baek, So-Young; Kaneda, Fumihiro; Ozawa, Masanao; Edamatsu, Keiichi
2013-01-01
The uncertainty principle formulated by Heisenberg in 1927 describes a trade-off between the error of a measurement of one observable and the disturbance caused on another complementary observable such that their product should be no less than the limit set by Planck's constant. However, Ozawa in 1988 showed a model of position measurement that breaks Heisenberg's relation and in 2003 revealed an alternative relation for error and disturbance to be proven universally valid. Here, we report an experimental test of Ozawa's relation for a single-photon polarization qubit, exploiting a more general class of quantum measurements than the class of projective measurements. The test is carried out by linear optical devices and realizes an indirect measurement model that breaks Heisenberg's relation throughout the range of our experimental parameter and yet validates Ozawa's relation.
Experimental violation and reformulation of the Heisenberg's error-disturbance uncertainty relation
Baek, So-Young; Kaneda, Fumihiro; Ozawa, Masanao; Edamatsu, Keiichi
2013-07-01
The uncertainty principle formulated by Heisenberg in 1927 describes a trade-off between the error of a measurement of one observable and the disturbance caused on another complementary observable such that their product should be no less than the limit set by Planck's constant. However, Ozawa in 1988 showed a model of position measurement that breaks Heisenberg's relation and in 2003 revealed an alternative relation for error and disturbance to be proven universally valid. Here, we report an experimental test of Ozawa's relation for a single-photon polarization qubit, exploiting a more general class of quantum measurements than the class of projective measurements. The test is carried out by linear optical devices and realizes an indirect measurement model that breaks Heisenberg's relation throughout the range of our experimental parameter and yet validates Ozawa's relation.
Frutiger, Jérôme; Marcarie, Camille; Abildskov, Jens; Sin, Gürkan
2016-11-15
This study presents new group contribution (GC) models for the prediction of Lower and Upper Flammability Limits (LFL and UFL), Flash Point (FP) and Auto Ignition Temperature (AIT) of organic chemicals applying the Marrero/Gani (MG) method. Advanced methods for parameter estimation using robust regression and outlier treatment have been applied to achieve high accuracy. Furthermore, linear error propagation based on covariance matrix of estimated parameters was performed. Therefore, every estimated property value of the flammability-related properties is reported together with its corresponding 95%-confidence interval of the prediction. Compared to existing models the developed ones have a higher accuracy, are simple to apply and provide uncertainty information on the calculated prediction. The average relative error and correlation coefficient are 11.5% and 0.99 for LFL, 15.9% and 0.91 for UFL, 2.0% and 0.99 for FP as well as 6.4% and 0.76 for AIT. Moreover, the temperature-dependence of LFL property was studied. A compound specific proportionality constant (K(LFL)) between LFL and temperature is introduced and an MG GC model to estimate K(LFL) is developed. Overall the ability to predict flammability-related properties including the corresponding uncertainty of the prediction can provide important information for a qualitative and quantitative safety-related risk assessment studies.
HAN Yi-Wen; LIU Shou-Yu
2005-01-01
@@ The new equation of state density is obtained by the utilization of the generalized uncertainty relation. With the help of coordinates and the Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation, direct calculation of the scalar field entropy of the non-state black hole with an internal global monopole is performed. The entropy obtained from the calculation is proportional to the horizon area. The calculation can be free from convergence if without any cutoff, which is different from the brick-wall method. However, the pertinent result is limited.
Relating q ̂, η /s , and Δ E in an expanding quark-gluon plasma
Ayala, Alejandro; Dominguez, Isabel; Jalilian-Marian, Jamal; Tejeda-Yeomans, Maria Elena
2016-08-01
We use linear viscous hydrodynamics to describe the energy and momentum deposited by a fast moving parton in a quark gluon plasma. This energy-momentum is in turn used to compute the probability density for the production of soft partons by means of the Cooper-Frye formula. We use this probability density to render manifest a relation between the average transverse momentum given to the fast moving parton from the medium q ̂, the shear viscosity to entropy density ratio η /s , and the energy lost by the fast moving parton Δ E in an expanding medium under similar conditions to those generated in nucleus-nucleus collisions at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. We find that q ̂ increases linearly with Δ E for both trigger and away side partons that have been produced throughout the medium. On the other hand, η /s is more stable with Δ E . We also study how these transport coefficients vary with the geometrical location of the hard scattering that produces the fast moving partons. The behavior of q ̂, with Δ E , is understood as arising from the length of medium the parton traverses from the point where it is produced. However, since η /s is proportional to the ratio of the length of medium traversed by the fast parton and the average number of scatterings it experiences, it has a milder dependence on the energy it loses. This study represents a tool to obtain a direct connection between transport coefficients and the description of in-medium energy loss within a linear viscous hydrodynamical evolution of the bulk.
Sabouri, Sarah; Gerber, Markus; Lemola, Sakari; Becker, Stephen P; Shamsi, Mahin; Shakouri, Zeinab; Sadeghi Bahmani, Dena; Kalak, Nadeem; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith; Brand, Serge
2016-07-01
The Dark Triad (DT) describes a set of three closely related personality traits, Machiavellianism, narcissism, and psychopathy. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between DT traits, sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty. A total of 341 adults (M=29years) completed a series of questionnaires related to the DT traits, sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity, and intolerance of uncertainty. A higher DT total score was associated with increased sleep disturbances, and higher scores for anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty. In regression analyses Machiavellianism and psychopathy were predictors of sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity, and intolerance of uncertainty. Results indicate that specific DT traits, namely Machiavellianism and psychopathy, are associated with sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty in young adults. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Marcela Brugnach
2008-12-01
Full Text Available Uncertainty of late has become an increasingly important and controversial topic in water resource management, and natural resources management in general. Diverse managing goals, changing environmental conditions, conflicting interests, and lack of predictability are some of the characteristics that decision makers have to face. This has resulted in the application and development of strategies such as adaptive management, which proposes flexibility and capability to adapt to unknown conditions as a way of dealing with uncertainties. However, this shift in ideas about managing has not always been accompanied by a general shift in the way uncertainties are understood and handled. To improve this situation, we believe it is necessary to recontextualize uncertainty in a broader way - relative to its role, meaning, and relationship with participants in decision making - because it is from this understanding that problems and solutions emerge. Under this view, solutions do not exclusively consist of eliminating or reducing uncertainty, but of reframing the problems as such so that they convey a different meaning. To this end, we propose a relational approach to uncertainty analysis. Here, we elaborate on this new conceptualization of uncertainty, and indicate some implications of this view for strategies for dealing with uncertainty in water management. We present an example as an illustration of these concepts.
Experimental Test of Heisenberg's Measurement Uncertainty Relation Based on Statistical Distances
Ma, Wenchao; Ma, Zhihao; Wang, Hengyan; Chen, Zhihua; Liu, Ying; Kong, Fei; Li, Zhaokai; Peng, Xinhua; Shi, Mingjun; Shi, Fazhan; Fei, Shao-Ming; Du, Jiangfeng
2016-04-01
Incompatible observables can be approximated by compatible observables in joint measurement or measured sequentially, with constrained accuracy as implied by Heisenberg's original formulation of the uncertainty principle. Recently, Busch, Lahti, and Werner proposed inaccuracy trade-off relations based on statistical distances between probability distributions of measurement outcomes [P. Busch et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 160405 (2013); P. Busch et al., Phys. Rev. A 89, 012129 (2014)]. Here we reformulate their theoretical framework, derive an improved relation for qubit measurement, and perform an experimental test on a spin system. The relation reveals that the worst-case inaccuracy is tightly bounded from below by the incompatibility of target observables, and is verified by the experiment employing joint measurement in which two compatible observables designed to approximate two incompatible observables on one qubit are measured simultaneously.
Uncertainties related to the representation of momentum transport in shallow convection
Schlemmer, Linda; Bechtold, Peter; Sandu, Irina; Ahlgrimm, Maike
2017-04-01
The vertical transport of horizontal momentum by convection has an important impact on the general circulation of the atmosphere as well as on the life cycle and track of cyclones. So far convective momentum transport (CMT) has mostly been studied for deep convection, whereas little is known about its characteristics and importance in shallow convection. In this study CMT by shallow convection is investigated by analyzing both data from large-eddy simulations (LES) and simulations performed with the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). In addition, the central terms underlying the bulk mass-flux parametrization of CMT are evaluated offline. Further, the uncertainties related to the representation of CMT are explored by running the stochastically perturbed parametrizations (SPP) approach of the IFS. The analyzed cases exhibit shallow convective clouds developing within considerable low-level wind shear. Analysis of the momentum fluxes in the LES data reveals significant momentum transport by the convection in both cases, which is directed down-gradient despite substantial organization of the cloud field. A detailed inspection of the convection parametrization reveals a very good representation of the entrainment and detrainment rates and an appropriate representation of the convective mass and momentum fluxes. To determine the correct values of mass-flux and in-cloud momentum at the cloud base in the parametrization yet remains challenging. The spread in convection-related quantities generated by the SPP is reasonable and addresses many of the identified uncertainties.
The Expanded Classroom – Spatial Relations in Classroom Practices using ICT
Ola Erstad
2014-01-01
The aim of this article is to raise some key issues about how spatial relationships between learning contexts can inform us on the implications of using ICT in classroom settings. Data from an international research project on using social media for learning in school is presented. The findings show the relevance and importance of studying learning practices using digital media as a way to expand traditional conceptions of spatial relationships in classrooms, challenging ways of understanding...
Managing uncertainty in multiple-criteria decision making related to sustainability assessment
Dorini, Gianluca Fabio; Kapelan, Zoran; Azapagic, Adisa
2011-01-01
In real life, decisions are usually made by comparing different options with respect to several, often conflicting criteria. This requires subjective judgements on the importance of different criteria by DMs and increases uncertainty in decision making. This article demonstrates how uncertainty can......: (1) no uncertainty, (2) uncertainty in data/models and (3) uncertainty in models and decision-makers’ preferences. The results shows how characterising and propagating uncertainty can help increase the effectiveness of multi-criteria decision making processes and lead to more informed decision....... be handled in multi-criteria decision situations using Compromise Programming, one of the Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques. Uncertainty is characterised using a probabilistic approach and propagated using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The methodological approach is illustrated...
Chin, Brian; Nelson, Brady D; Jackson, Felicia; Hajcak, Greg
2016-01-01
Fear conditioning research on threat predictability has primarily examined the impact of temporal (i.e., timing) predictability on the startle reflex. However, there are other key features of threat that can vary in predictability. For example, the reinforcement rate (i.e., frequency) of threat is a crucial factor underlying fear learning. The present study examined the impact of threat reinforcement rate on the startle reflex and self-reported anxiety during a fear conditioning paradigm. Forty-five participants completed a fear learning task in which the conditioned stimulus was reinforced with an electric shock to the forearm on 50% of trials in one block and 75% of trials in a second block, in counter-balanced order. The present study also examined whether intolerance of uncertainty (IU), the tendency to perceive or experience uncertainty as stressful or unpleasant, was associated with the startle reflex during conditions of low (50%) vs. high (75%) reinforcement. Results indicated that, across all participants, startle was greater during the 75% relative to the 50% reinforcement condition. IU was positively correlated with startle potentiation (i.e., increased startle response to the CS+ relative to the CS-) during the 50%, but not the 75%, reinforcement condition. Thus, despite receiving fewer electric shocks during the 50% reinforcement condition, individuals with high IU uniquely demonstrated greater defense system activation when impending threat was more uncertain. The association between IU and startle was independent of state anxiety. The present study adds to a growing literature on threat predictability and aversive responding, and suggests IU is associated with abnormal responding in the context of uncertain threat.
The Expanded Classroom – Spatial Relations in Classroom Practices using ICT
Ola Erstad
2014-03-01
Full Text Available The aim of this article is to raise some key issues about how spatial relationships between learning contexts can inform us on the implications of using ICT in classroom settings. Data from an international research project on using social media for learning in school is presented. The findings show the relevance and importance of studying learning practices using digital media as a way to expand traditional conceptions of spatial relationships in classrooms, challenging ways of understanding where learning takes place, and of what and how students learn.
Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)
Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.
2016-04-01
Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.
Mezzasalma, Stefano A
2007-03-15
The theoretical basis of a recent theory of Brownian relativity for polymer solutions is deepened and reexamined. After the problem of relative diffusion in polymer solutions is addressed, its two postulates are formulated in all generality. The former builds a statistical equivalence between (uncorrelated) timelike and shapelike reference frames, that is, among dynamical trajectories of liquid molecules and static configurations of polymer chains. The latter defines the "diffusive horizon" as the invariant quantity to work with in the special version of the theory. Particularly, the concept of universality in polymer physics corresponds in Brownian relativity to that of covariance in the Einstein formulation. Here, a "universal" law consists of a privileged observation, performed from the laboratory rest frame and agreeing with any diffusive reference system. From the joint lack of covariance and simultaneity implied by the Brownian Lorentz-Poincaré transforms, a relative uncertainty arises, in a certain analogy with quantum mechanics. It is driven by the difference between local diffusion coefficients in the liquid solution. The same transformation class can be used to infer Fick's second law of diffusion, playing here the role of a gauge invariance preserving covariance of the spacetime increments. An overall, noteworthy conclusion emerging from this view concerns the statistics of (i) static macromolecular configurations and (ii) the motion of liquid molecules, which would be much more related than expected.
Uncertainty Forecasts Improve Weather-Related Decisions and Attenuate the Effects of Forecast Error
Joslyn, Susan L.; LeClerc, Jared E.
2012-01-01
Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather…
A Slippery Slope: Systematic Uncertainties in the Baryonic Tully-Fisher Relation
Bradford, Jeremy D; Bosch, Frank C van den
2016-01-01
The baryonic Tully-Fisher relation (BTFR) is both a valuable observational tool and a critical test of galaxy formation theory. We explore the systematic uncertainty in the slope and the scatter of the observed BTFR utilizing a homogeneously measured dataset of 930 isolated galaxies. We measure a fiducial relation of log_10 M_baryon = 3.24 log_10 V_rot + 3.21 with a scatter of 0.25 dex over the baryonic mass range of 10^7.4 to 10^11.3 M_sun. We then conservatively vary the definitions of M_baryon and V_rot, the sample definition and the linear fitting algorithm used to fit the BTFR. We obtain slopes ranging from 2.64 to 3.46 and scatter measurements ranging from 0.16 to 0.41 dex. We next compare our fiducial slope to literature measurements, where reported slopes range from 3.0 to 4.3 and scatter is either unmeasured, unmeasurable or as large as 0.4 dex. Measurements derived from unresolved HI line-widths tend to produce slopes of 3.2, while measurements derived strictly from resolved asymptotic rotation velo...
Li, Xi-Zeng; Su, Bao-Xia
1994-01-01
It is found that two-mode output quantum electromagnetic field in two-mode squeezed states exhibits higher-order squeezing to all even orders. And the generalized uncertainty relations are also presented for the first time. The concept of higher-order squeezing of the single-mode quantum electromagnetic field was first introduced and applied to several processes by Hong and Mandel in 1985. Lately Li Xizeng and Shan Ying have calculated the higher-order squeezing in the process of degenerate four-wave mixing and presented the higher-order uncertainty relations of the fields in single-mode squeezed states. In this paper we generalize the above work to the higher-order squeezing in two-mode squeezed states. The generalized uncertainty relations are also presented for the first time.
Carcioppolo, Nick; Yang, Fan; Yang, Qinghua
2016-09-01
Uncertainty is a central characteristic of many aspects of cancer prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment. Brashers's (2001) uncertainty management theory details the multifaceted nature of uncertainty and describes situations in which uncertainty can both positively and negatively affect health outcomes. The current study extends theory on uncertainty management by developing four scale measures of uncertainty preferences in the context of cancer. Two national surveys were conducted to validate the scales and assess convergent and concurrent validity. Results support the factor structure of each measure and provide general support across multiple validity assessments. These scales can advance research on uncertainty and cancer communication by providing researchers with measures that address multiple aspects of uncertainty management.
Expanding the landscape of chromatin modification (CM-related functional domains and genes in human.
Shuye Pu
Full Text Available Chromatin modification (CM plays a key role in regulating transcription, DNA replication, repair and recombination. However, our knowledge of these processes in humans remains very limited. Here we use computational approaches to study proteins and functional domains involved in CM in humans. We analyze the abundance and the pair-wise domain-domain co-occurrences of 25 well-documented CM domains in 5 model organisms: yeast, worm, fly, mouse and human. Results show that domains involved in histone methylation, DNA methylation, and histone variants are remarkably expanded in metazoan, reflecting the increased demand for cell type-specific gene regulation. We find that CM domains tend to co-occur with a limited number of partner domains and are hence not promiscuous. This property is exploited to identify 47 potentially novel CM domains, including 24 DNA-binding domains, whose role in CM has received little attention so far. Lastly, we use a consensus Machine Learning approach to predict 379 novel CM genes (coding for 329 proteins in humans based on domain compositions. Several of these predictions are supported by very recent experimental studies and others are slated for experimental verification. Identification of novel CM genes and domains in humans will aid our understanding of fundamental epigenetic processes that are important for stem cell differentiation and cancer biology. Information on all the candidate CM domains and genes reported here is publicly available.
Expanded DEMATEL for Determining Cause and Effect Group in Bidirectional Relations
Elham Falatoonitoosi
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL methodology has been proposed to solve complex and intertwined problem groups in many situations such as developing the capabilities, complex group decision making, security problems, marketing approaches, global managers, and control systems. DEMATEL is able to realize casual relationships by dividing important issues into cause and effect group as well as making it possible to visualize the casual relationships of subcriteria and systems in the course of casual diagram that it may demonstrate communication network or a little control relationships between individuals. Despite of its ability to visualize cause and effect inside a network, the original DEMATEL has not been able to find the cause and effect group between different networks. Therefore, the aim of this study is proposing the expanded DEMATEL to cover this deficiency by new formulations to determine cause and effect factors between separate networks that have bidirectional direct impact on each other. At the end, the feasibility of new extra formulations is validated by case study in three numerical examples of green supply chain networks for an automotive company.
Expanded DEMATEL for determining cause and effect group in bidirectional relations.
Falatoonitoosi, Elham; Ahmed, Shamsuddin; Sorooshian, Shahryar
2014-01-01
Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) methodology has been proposed to solve complex and intertwined problem groups in many situations such as developing the capabilities, complex group decision making, security problems, marketing approaches, global managers, and control systems. DEMATEL is able to realize casual relationships by dividing important issues into cause and effect group as well as making it possible to visualize the casual relationships of subcriteria and systems in the course of casual diagram that it may demonstrate communication network or a little control relationships between individuals. Despite of its ability to visualize cause and effect inside a network, the original DEMATEL has not been able to find the cause and effect group between different networks. Therefore, the aim of this study is proposing the expanded DEMATEL to cover this deficiency by new formulations to determine cause and effect factors between separate networks that have bidirectional direct impact on each other. At the end, the feasibility of new extra formulations is validated by case study in three numerical examples of green supply chain networks for an automotive company.
Cheng, E M; Hays, R D; Myers, L W; Ellison, G W; Beckstrand, M; Vickrey, B G
2001-12-01
Although the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) remains a widely used scale for evaluating impairments in people with multiple sclerosis (MS), EDSS assessments are infeasible in certain situations. A self-administered version of the EDSS would be potentially useful if it yielded similar results as the conventional physician-based version. We developed a self-administered patient questionnaire to obtain ratings of neurologic impairments, and developed algorithms to estimate EDSS scores. We mailed the questionnaires to all new consecutive patients scheduled to be seen at an MS clinic. Questionnaires were completed prior to the visit and traditional EDSS ratings were made by one of two neurologists at the visit. One hundred and forty-six pairs of patient questionnaires and physician EDSS assessments were obtained. Kappa values for agreement between the physician's EDSS scores and the questionnaire-derived scores were 0.13 (for exact agreement), 0.39 (+/-0.5 EDSS steps), and 0.56 (+/-1.0 EDSS steps). A scatterplot showed that agreement was best at EDSS scores 5.0. Better agreement was obtained when patients had a higher level of education, and when the physician was more certain of the diagnosis of MS. While the self-assessed EDSS scores do not agree highly enough to take the place of conventional EDSS scores, they may be sufficient for MS trial screening or for assessing outcomes across broad categories of disability.
Quantitative Relative Comparison of CFD Simulation Uncertainties for a Transonic Diffuser Problem
Hosder, Serhat; Grossman, Bernard; Haftka, Raphael T.; Mason, William H.; Watson, Layne T.
2004-01-01
Different sources of uncertainty in CFD simulations are illustrated by a detailed study of two-dimensional, turbulent, transonic flow in a converging-diverging channel. Runs were performed with the commercial CFD code GASP using different turbulence models, grid levels, and flux-limiters to see the effect of each on the CFD simulation uncertainties. Two flow conditions were studied by changing the exit pressure ratio: the first is a complex case with a strong shock and a separated flow region...
Wildfire Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Thompson, M.
2013-12-01
Decisions relating to wildfire management are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, and are made by a broad range of individuals, across a multitude of environmental and socioeconomic contexts. In this presentation I will review progress towards identification and characterization of uncertainties and how this information can support wildfire decision-making. First, I will review a typology of uncertainties common to wildfire management, highlighting some of the more salient sources of uncertainty and how they present challenges to assessing wildfire risk. This discussion will cover the expanding role of burn probability modeling, approaches for characterizing fire effects, and the role of multi-criteria decision analysis, and will provide illustrative examples of integrated wildfire risk assessment across a variety of planning scales. Second, I will describe a related uncertainty typology that focuses on the human dimensions of wildfire management, specifically addressing how social, psychological, and institutional factors may impair cost-effective risk mitigation. This discussion will encompass decision processes before, during, and after fire events, with a specific focus on active management of complex wildfire incidents. An improved ability to characterize uncertainties faced in wildfire management could lead to improved delivery of decision support, targeted communication strategies, and ultimately to improved wildfire management outcomes.
Strawhun, Jenna; Adams, Natasha; Huss, Matthew T
2013-01-01
Because the first antistalking statute was enacted in California in 1990, stalking research has been expanded immensely, yet been largely confined to exploring traditional pursuit tactics. This study instead examined the prevalence and correlates of cyberstalking behaviors while examining the phenomenon in a more inclusive manner than previous studies focusing on cyberstalking by including social networking avenues. In addition to a measure assessing cyberstalking-related behaviors, questionnaires assessing pathological aspects of personality, including attachment style, interpersonal jealousy, interpersonal violence, and anger were also provided to participants. Results indicate that, given preliminary evidence, cyberstalking-related behaviors are related to past measures of traditional stalking and cyberstalking, although prior attachment, jealousy, and violence issues within relationships are significant predictors of cyberstalking-related behaviors. In addition, unexpected gender differences emerged. For example, women admitted greater frequencies of cyberstalking perpetration than males, signaling that further research on frequency and motivation for cyberstalking among the sexes is necessary.
Li, Xi-Zeng; Su, Bao-Xia
1996-01-01
It is found that the field of the combined mode of the probe wave and the phase-conjugate wave in the process of non-degenerate four-wave mixing exhibits higher-order squeezing to all even orders. And the generalized uncertainty relations in this process are also presented.
Okubo, Sho; Nakayama, Hirotaka; Iwakuni, Kana; Inaba, Hajime; Sasada, Hiroyuki
2011-11-21
We determine the absolute frequencies of 56 rotation-vibration transitions of the ν(3) band of CH(4) from 88.2 to 90.5 THz with a typical uncertainty of 2 kHz corresponding to a relative uncertainty of 2.2 × 10(-11) over an average time of a few hundred seconds. Saturated absorption lines are observed using a difference-frequency-generation source and a cavity-enhanced absorption cell, and the transition frequencies are measured with a fiber-laser-based optical frequency comb referenced to a rubidium atomic clock linked to the international atomic time. The determined value of the P(7) F(2)((2)) line is consistent with the International Committee for Weights and Measures recommendation within the uncertainty.
Ando, Amy W; Mallory, Mindy L
2012-04-24
Climate change is likely to alter the spatial distributions of species and habitat types but the nature of such change is uncertain. Thus, climate change makes it difficult to implement standard conservation planning paradigms. Previous work has suggested some approaches to cope with such uncertainty but has not harnessed all of the benefits of risk diversification. We adapt Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to optimal spatial targeting of conservation activity, using wetland habitat conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) as an example. This approach finds the allocations of conservation activity among subregions of the planning area that maximize the expected conservation returns for a given level of uncertainty or minimize uncertainty for a given expected level of returns. We find that using MPT instead of simple diversification in the PPR can achieve a value of the conservation objective per dollar spent that is 15% higher for the same level of risk. MPT-based portfolios can also have 21% less uncertainty over benefits or 6% greater expected benefits than the current portfolio of PPR conservation. Total benefits from conservation investment are higher if returns are defined in terms of benefit-cost ratios rather than benefits alone. MPT-guided diversification can work to reduce the climate-change-induced uncertainty of future ecosystem-service benefits from many land policy and investment initiatives, especially when outcomes are negatively correlated between subregions of a planning area.
Ando, Amy W.; Mallory, Mindy L.
2012-01-01
Climate change is likely to alter the spatial distributions of species and habitat types but the nature of such change is uncertain. Thus, climate change makes it difficult to implement standard conservation planning paradigms. Previous work has suggested some approaches to cope with such uncertainty but has not harnessed all of the benefits of risk diversification. We adapt Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to optimal spatial targeting of conservation activity, using wetland habitat conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) as an example. This approach finds the allocations of conservation activity among subregions of the planning area that maximize the expected conservation returns for a given level of uncertainty or minimize uncertainty for a given expected level of returns. We find that using MPT instead of simple diversification in the PPR can achieve a value of the conservation objective per dollar spent that is 15% higher for the same level of risk. MPT-based portfolios can also have 21% less uncertainty over benefits or 6% greater expected benefits than the current portfolio of PPR conservation. Total benefits from conservation investment are higher if returns are defined in terms of benefit–cost ratios rather than benefits alone. MPT-guided diversification can work to reduce the climate-change–induced uncertainty of future ecosystem-service benefits from many land policy and investment initiatives, especially when outcomes are negatively correlated between subregions of a planning area. PMID:22451914
Casola, J. H.; Huber, D.
2013-12-01
Many media, academic, government, and advocacy organizations have achieved sophistication in developing effective messages based on scientific information, and can quickly translate salient aspects of emerging climate research and evolving observations. However, there are several ways in which valid messages can be misconstrued by decision makers, leading them to inaccurate conclusions about the risks associated with climate impacts. Three cases will be discussed: 1) Issues of spatial scale in interpreting climate observations: Local climate observations may contradict summary statements about the effects of climate change on larger regional or global spatial scales. Effectively addressing these differences often requires communicators to understand local and regional climate drivers, and the distinction between a 'signal' associated with climate change and local climate 'noise.' Hydrological statistics in Missouri and California are shown to illustrate this case. 2) Issues of complexity related to extreme events: Climate change is typically invoked following a wide range of damaging meteorological events (e.g., heat waves, landfalling hurricanes, tornadoes), regardless of the strength of the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency or severity of that type of event. Examples are drawn from media coverage of several recent events, contrasting useful and potentially confusing word choices and frames. 3) Issues revolving around climate sensitivity: The so-called 'pause' or 'hiatus' in global warming has reverberated strongly through political and business discussions of climate change. Addressing the recent slowdown in warming yields an important opportunity to raise climate literacy in these communities. Attempts to use recent observations as a wedge between climate 'believers' and 'deniers' is likely to be counterproductive. Examples are drawn from Congressional testimony and media stories. All three cases illustrate ways that decision
Mapping Heat-related Risks for Community-based Adaptation Planning under Uncertainty
Bai, Yingjiu; Kaneko, Ikuyo; Kobayashi, Hikaru; Kurihara, Kazuo; Sasaki, Hidetaka; Murata, Akihiko; Takayabu, Izuru
2016-04-01
Climate change is leading to more frequent and intense heat waves. Recently, epidemiologic findings on heat-related health impacts have reinforced our understanding of the mortality impacts of extreme heat. This research has several aims: 1) to promote climate prediction services with spatial and temporal information on heat-related risks, using GIS (Geographical Information System), and digital mapping techniques; 2) to propose a visualization approach to articulating the evolution of local heat-health responses over time and the evaluation of new interventions for the implementation of valid community-based adaptation strategies and reliable actionable planning; and 3) to provide an appropriate and simple method of adjusting bias and quantifying the uncertainty in future outcomes, so that regional climate projections may be transcribed into useful forms for a wide variety of different users. Following the 2003 European heat wave, climatologists, medical specialists, and social scientists expedited efforts to revise and integrate risk governance frameworks for communities to take appropriate and effective actions themselves. Recently, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) methodology has made projections possible for anyone wanting to openly access state-of-the-art climate model outputs and climate data to provide the backbone for decisions. Furthermore, the latest high-solution regional climate model (RCM) has been a huge increase in the volumes of data available. In this study, we used high-quality hourly projections (5-km resolution) from the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM-5km), following the SRES-A1B scenario developed by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and observational data from the Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The NHRCM-5km is a dynamic downscaling of results from the MRI-AGCM3.2S (20-km resolution), an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) driven by the
Benkler, Erik; Sterr, Uwe
2015-01-01
The power spectral density in Fourier frequency domain, and the different variants of the Allan deviation (ADEV) in dependence on the averaging time are well established tools to analyse the fluctuation properties and frequency instability of an oscillatory signal. It is often supposed that the statistical uncertainty of a measured average frequency is given by the ADEV at a well considered averaging time. However, this approach requires further mathematical justification and refinement, which has already been done regarding the original ADEV for certain noise types. Here we provide the necessary background to use the modified Allan deviation (modADEV) and other two-sample deviations to determine the uncertainty of weighted frequency averages. The type of two-sample deviation used to determine the uncertainty depends on the method used for determination of the average. We find that the modADEV, which is connected with $\\Lambda$-weighted averaging, and the two sample deviation associated to a linear phase regr...
C9orf72-related disorders: expanding the clinical and genetic spectrum of neurodegenerative diseases
Paulo Victor Sgobbi de Souza
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Neurodegenerative diseases represent a heterogeneous group of neurological conditions primarily involving dementia, motor neuron disease and movement disorders. They are mostly related to different pathophysiological processes, notably in family forms in which the clinical and genetic heterogeneity are lush. In the last decade, much knowledge has been acumulated about the genetics of neurodegenerative diseases, making it essential in cases of motor neuron disease and frontotemporal dementia the repeat expansions of C9orf72 gene. This review analyzes the main clinical, radiological and genetic aspects of the phenotypes related to the hexanucleotide repeat expansions (GGGGCC of C9orf72 gene. Future studies will aim to further characterize the neuropsychological, imaging and pathological aspects of the extra-motor features of motor neuron disease, and will help to provide a new classification system that is both clinically and biologically relevant.
赵秀芬; 侯玮; 郭宇飞; 关桂云
2014-01-01
Objective:To establish density bottle method to evalu-ate uncertainty in determination of relative density of smoothing toner. Method:According to JJF1059.1-2012 evaluation and ex-pression of uncertainty in measurement and GB/T 13531.4 2013 general methods on determination of cosmetics-determination of relative density, measurement model was established, and cause-effect diagram of sources of uncertainty was drawn up, and each component of uncertainty was calculated and classified, the expanded uncertainty was U=0.0002. Result:The results of rela-tive density of smoothing toner was 1.009 7 ±0.000 2. Conclu-sion:The study can provide reference basis for uncertainty eval-uation in determination of relative density.%目的：院建立密度瓶法测定柔肤水相对密度不确定度评定的方法。方法院依据JJF1059.1-2012《测量不确定度评定与表示》，采用GB/T 13531.4要2013《化妆品通用检验方法相对密度的测定》，建立测量模型，绘制不确定度来源因果图，对检测过程中引入的不确定度进行了分类和量化，得到扩展不确定度U=0.0002。结果院柔肤水相对密度测定结果表示为1.0097依0.0002。结论院研究为相对密度测定的不确定度评定提供参考依据。
Suchak, Meghana
2014-01-01
The focus of the current study was on examining possible differences in college students' adjustment based on residency status (i.e., international Asian vs. domestic students) and illness status (i.e., having a family member with a chronic illness vs. not having a family member with a chronic illness). The study also examined the associations between overall college student adjustment and the family and illness-related factors of role conflict, uncertainty in illness, and illness-related com...
Peter Kamusella
2013-11-01
Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate, in a retrospective study, the clinical efficacy and safety of the self-expanding Nitinol stent in the superior vena cava to alleviate upper venous congestion.Method: In 22 patients (15 men, 7 women, a tumour-related compression of the superior vena cava was diagnosed by spiral CT after intravenous application of contrast medium. Clinically, acute superior vena cava syndrome was found in all patients. Histologically, a bronchial carcinoma was present in 14/22, a lymphoma in 6/22, and mediastinal lymphnode metastases (1 breast carcinoma, 1 malignant melanoma in 2/22. After a transfemoral approach, cavography was initially performed. The degree of stenosis was classified according to the Stanford classification. In accordance with the degree of stenosis, a self-expanding Nitinol stent was placed.Results: Endovascular stent implantation was conducted without complications in all patients. A marked improvement in acute symptoms was observed clinically within 24 hours in all patients. In the follow-up period of up to 2 years, there were no cases of stent migration. In 7/22 patients, the CT follow-ups revealed tumour progression (3/7 after 3 months, 2/7 after 6 months, and 2/7 after 12 months with evidence of residual stenosis caused by tumour growth through the stent mesh. During the follow-up period, 15/22 patients died (mean survival 6.4 months.Conclusion: Self-expanding Nitinol stents provide endovascular therapy for superior vena cava syndrome, having a high radial expansive force and the facility to be placed precisely, and alleviating acute, life-threatening symptoms in the palliative situation.
The Evolution of Classroom Physics Knowledge in Relation to Certainty and Uncertainty
Tiberghien, Andrée; Cross, David; Sensevy, Gérard
2014-01-01
This paper deals with the joint construction of knowledge by the teacher and the students in a physics classroom. It is focused on the status of epistemic certainty/uncertainty of knowledge. The same element of knowledge can be introduced as possible and thus uncertain and then evolve towards a status of epistemic certainty; the status of other…
Mobley, Joel
2010-01-01
The Kramers-Kronig (KK) relations are a large class of integral transformations that exploit the broad principle of simple causality in order to link the physical properties of matter and materials. In applications to the complex-valued wavenumber for acoustic propagation, the method of subtractions is used to form convergent integral relations between the phase velocity and the attenuation coefficient. When the method of subtractions is applied in the usual manner, the integrands in the relations become unnecessarily complicated. In this work, an expanded form of the subtracted relations is presented, which is essentially a truncated Taylor series expansion of the Hilbert transforms. The implementation of the relations only requires the explicit evaluation of two simply expressed integrals involving the Hilbert transform kernel. These two integrals determine the values of the other terms in the subtracted relations, demonstrating the computational efficiency of the technique. The method is illustrated analytically through its application to power-law attenuation coefficients and its associated dispersion, which are observed in a wide variety of materials. This approach explicitly shows the central role of the Hilbert transform kernel in the KK relations, which can become obscured in other formulations.
New ALS-Related Genes Expand the Spectrum Paradigm of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis.
Sabatelli, Mario; Marangi, Giuseppe; Conte, Amelia; Tasca, Giorgio; Zollino, Marcella; Lattante, Serena
2016-03-01
Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is characterized by the degeneration of upper and lower motor neurons. Clinical heterogeneity is a well-recognized feature of the disease as age of onset, site of onset and the duration of the disease can vary greatly among patients. A number of genes have been identified and associated to familial and sporadic forms of ALS but the majority of cases remains still unexplained. Recent breakthrough discoveries have demonstrated that clinical manifestations associated with ALS-related genes are not circumscribed to motor neurons involvement. In this view, ALS appears to be linked to different conditions over a continuum or spectrum in which overlapping phenotypes may be identified. In this review, we aim to examine the increasing number of spectra, including ALS/Frontotemporal Dementia and ALS/Myopathies spectra. Considering all these neurodegenerative disorders as different phenotypes of the same spectrum can help to identify common pathological pathways and consequently new therapeutic targets in these incurable diseases.
Liang, Michael; Devlin, Gerard; Pasupati, Sanjeevan
2012-04-01
Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has been performed at Waikato Hospital for high-risk severe symptomatic aortic stenosis patients who are considered unsuitable for conventional cardiac surgery for the last 3 years. The Medtronic CoreValve (MCV) is a self-expandable device, while the Edwards SAPIEN valve (EV) requires the use of a balloon to expand the device. This observational study reports and compares the incidence of heart block in both Medtronic and Edwards transcatheter valves. All patients who underwent TAVI between the periods of 28 August 2008 and 27 July 2011 were included in this study. Preprocedure and daily postprocedure until discharge electrocardiograms (ECG) were obtained prospectively. New onsets of significant atrioventricular (AV) and bundle branch blocks were recorded. Patients with existing pacemaker and those who did not survive the procedure were excluded. Sixty patients underwent TAVI during the study period, of whom 40 (67%) and 20 (33%) patients had MCV and EV implanted, respectively. Seven patients were excluded from the analysis; 38 MCV and 15 EV patients fulfilled the criteria for analysis. Mean age was 80 ± 7 years, 57% were male. Five patients (9%) required permanent pacemaker (PPM) implantation, which occurred exclusively post MCV TAVI (MCV vs EV: 13% vs 0%, respectively; P=.02). The indications of PPM were complete heart block in 3 patients (60%), Mobitz II second-degree heart block in 1 patient (20%), and symptomatic sick sinus syndrome in 1 patient (20%). The incidence of left bundle branch block (LBBB) was increased after the TAVI procedure and was more significant with MCV implants (MCV vs EV: 42% vs 8%, respectively; P<.01). Of note, 2 of the 5 patients (40%) with pre-existing right bundle branch block (RBBB) who underwent TAVI required PPM (P=.01). MCV implantation is associated with a higher incidence of significant AV block requiring PPM implantation and LBBB compared to EV. The overall rate of PPM requirement
Dilipkumar Pal
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Diet plays a vital role in the management of cancer because they are the source of important physiologically functional components. Scientific observations support the idea that dietary supplement can prevent breast cancer recurrences. Strong correlations are established between the high intake of saturated fat and the incidence of different types of cancer. It is found that chronic alcohol consumption is associated with increased risk of cancers of oral cavity, pharynx, esophagus, and larynx. Again, some evidences are also found regarding phosphorous, glutamate level in the body, and incidence of cancer. Different physiologically functional components are found in the dietary materials. Fibers, the major dietary components, have long been recognized for the unique properties in the treatment of cancer, which are related to its antineoplastic functions. Antioxidant rich diet has been added to the list of cancer-preventing dietary components. Also, recently published research has shown that natural carotenoids in the diet leads to a normalization of body epithelial cells and protects against the risk of stomach and esophagus cancer, and improves the immune system′s response. Again, fruit juices, processed vegetable juices, orange peel, green tea, vitamins, flavonoids, and trace materials have cancer inhibitory properties. Clearly, there has been increasing recognition of chemoprotective functions. Now, it can be recognized for another kind of functionality for the improvement of the health of mankind.
Expanded school mental health services: assessing needs related to school level and geography.
Weist, M D; Myers, C P; Danforth, J; McNeil, D W; Ollendick, T H; Hawkins, R
2000-06-01
We surveyed 62 school administrators from three midatlantic (MD, VA, WV) and one northeastern (CT) state on factors relevant to developing school-based mental health programs. Administrators were from schools that varied on education level (elementary, middle, and high) and geographic location (urban, suburban, and rural), with equivalent numbers in each subgroup. Administrators provided ratings to questions grouped in five categories: (a) Stressful Conditions, (b) Internalizing Behavioral Problems, (c) Externalizing Behavioral Problems, (d) Substance Abuse, and (e) Barriers to Mental Health Care, and provided open-ended comments on needs of youth and mental health programs for them. They rated behavioral and substance abuse problems as progressively more serious as students advanced in school level. Urban youth were reported to encounter higher stress and present more severe internalizing problems than suburban or rural youth. Suburban and rural schools provided more health and mental health services than urban schools. Across geographic locales, physical health services far outnumbered mental health services. Findings related to barriers to mental health care, and the viability of schools as delivery sites for comprehensive mental health services, are discussed.
Stetsenko, Anna
2008-07-01
This paper offers steps towards overcoming current fragmentation within sociocultural approaches by expansively reconstructing a broad dialectical view on human development and learning (drawing on Vygotsky's project) underwritten by ideology of social justice. The common foundation for sociocultural approaches is developed by dialectically supplanting relational ontology with the notion that collaborative purposeful transformation of the world is the core of human nature and the principled grounding for learning and development. An activist transformative stance suggests that people come to know themselves and their world as well as ultimately come to be human in and through (not in addition to) the processes of collaboratively transforming the world in view of their goals. This means that all human activities (including psychological processes and the self) are instantiations of contributions to collaborative transformative practices that are contingent on both the past and the vision for the future and therefore are profoundly imbued with ideology, ethics, and values. And because acting, being, and knowing are seen from a transformative activist stance as all rooted in, derivative of, and instrumental within a collaborative historical becoming, this stance cuts across and bridges the gaps (a) between individual and social and (b) among ontological, epistemological, and moral-ethical (ideological) dimensions of activity.
IgG4 related sclerosing mastitis: expanding the morphological spectrum of IgG4 related diseases.
Chougule, Abhijit; Bal, Amanjit; Das, Ashim; Singh, Gurpreet
2015-01-01
IgG4 related disease (IgG4RD) is a recently recognised condition characterised by mass forming lesions associated with storiform fibrosis, obliterative phlebitis, lymphoplasmacytic infiltrate rich in IgG4 positive plasma cells and elevated serum IgG4 levels. Although rare, mammary involvement has been reported as IgG4 related sclerosing mastitis, the morphological counterpart of a growing family of IgG4 related diseases. A total of 17 cases belonging to mass forming benign inflammatory breast lesions such as plasma cell mastitis, granulomatous lobular mastitis, non-specific mastitis and inflammatory pseudotumour were investigated as a possible member of IgG4 related sclerosing mastitis. Clinical, radiological, histopathological and immunohistochemistry findings were noted in all cases. Cases diagnosed as inflammatory pseudotumour showed all the histopathological features of IgG4RD along with increased number of IgG4 positive plasma cells and IgG4/IgG ratio >40%. However, only a few IgG4 positive cells were seen in plasma cell mastitis, granulomatous lobular mastitis and non-specific mastitis cases. These cases also did not fulfill the morphological criteria for the diagnosis of IgG4 related diseases. IgG4RD should be excluded in plasma cell rich lesions diagnosed on core biopsies by IgG4 immunostaining. This can avoid unnecessary surgery as IgG4 related diseases respond to simple and effective steroid treatment.
The expanding spectrum of HCV-related cryoglobulinemic vasculitis: a narrative review.
Dammacco, Franco; Racanelli, Vito; Russi, Sabino; Sansonno, Domenico
2016-08-01
Cryoglobulinemic vasculitis (CV) is a small-to-medium-vessel vasculitis that appears in 10-15 % of patients chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). The classic symptom triad of CV, purpura/asthenia/arthralgia, is accompanied by clinical features that include glomerulonephritis, neuropathy, interstitial pneumonitis, and cardiomyopathy, ranging in their severity from mild to life threatening. The risk of developing non-Hodgkin lymphoma is also higher. The cumulative 10-year survival rate of CV patients is significantly lower than in the age- and sex-matched general population, with death typically caused by nephropathy, malignancies, liver involvement, and severe infections. Unfailing serological stigmata include both a cryoglobulin IgM fraction with rheumatoid factor activity and decreased complement C4 levels. On peripheral B cells, the expression of the CD81 B cell receptor is reduced while that of the CD19 receptor is increased. A monoclonal B cell lymphocytosis develops in almost one-third of patients. HCV-related proteins (but not HCV-RNA genomic sequences) can be detected on biopsy samples by immunofluorescence and immunohistochemistry and involve the vessel lumen, vessel walls, and the perivascular spaces of the skin, kidney, and peripheral nerves, supporting the pathogenetic role of HCV in the onset of a widespread microvasculitis. Based on the demonstration of HCV infection in the large majority of CV patients, a therapeutic regimen consisting of once-weekly pegylated interferon-α and the daily administration of ribavirin results in a sustained virologic response in ~50 % of patients. In those with refractory and relapsing disease, addition of the anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody rituximab has significantly increased the overall response rates. The extension to CV of latest-generation direct-acting antivirals, strikingly successful in non-CV HCV-positive patients, has yielded high complete response rates according to the few studies published
George Maldonado
2009-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract: In a follow-up study of mortality among North American synthetic rubber industry workers, cumulative exposure to 1,3-butadiene was positively associated with leukemia. Problems with historical exposure estimation, however, may have distorted the association. To evaluate the impact of potential inaccuracies in exposure estimation, we conducted uncertainty analyses of the relation between cumulative exposure to butadiene and leukemia. We created the 1,000 sets of butadiene estimates using job-exposure matrices consisting of exposure values that corresponded to randomly selected percentiles of the approximate probability distribution of plant-, work area/job group-, and year specific butadiene ppm. We then analyzed the relation between cumulative exposure to butadiene and leukemia for each of the 1,000 sets of butadiene estimates. In the uncertainty analysis, the point estimate of the RR for the first non zero exposure category (>0–<37.5 ppm-years was most likely to be about 1.5. The rate ratio for the second exposure category (37.5–<184.7 ppm-years was most likely to range from 1.5 to 1.8. The RR for category 3 of exposure (184.7–<425.0 ppm-years was most likely between 2.1 and 3.0. The RR for the highest exposure category (425.0+ ppm-years was likely to be between 2.9 and 3.7. This range off RR point estimates can best be interpreted as a probability distribution that describes our uncertainty in RR point estimates due to uncertainty in exposure estimation. After considering the complete probability distributions of butadiene exposure estimates, the exposure-response association of butadiene and leukemia was maintained. This exercise was a unique example of how uncertainty analyses can be used to investigate and support an observed measure of effect when occupational exposure estimates are employed in the absence of direct exposure measurements.
Optimal entropic uncertainty relation for successive measurements in quantum information theory
M D Srinivas
2003-06-01
We derive an optimal bound on the sum of entropic uncertainties of two or more observables when they are sequentially measured on the same ensemble of systems. This optimal bound is shown to be greater than or equal to the bounds derived in the literature on the sum of entropic uncertainties of two observables which are measured on distinct but identically prepared ensembles of systems. In the case of a two-dimensional Hilbert space, the optimum bound for successive measurements of two-spin components, is seen to be strictly greater than the optimal bound for the case when they are measured on distinct ensembles, except when the spin components are mutually parallel or perpendicular.
Uncertainty Relations and Quantum Effects of Constraints in Chern-Simons Theory
Nakamura, M
2013-01-01
It is well known that Chern-Simons Theories are in the constrained systems and their total Hamiltonians become identically zero, because of their gauge invariance. While treating the constraints quantum mechanially, it will be expected taht there remain the quantum fluctuations due to the uncertainty principle. Using the projection operator method (POM) and the theory of dynamical constraints, such fluctuation terms are systematically derived in the case of Abelian Chern-Simons theory. It is shown that these terms produce the effective mass in the complex scalar fields coupled to the CS fields.
Time-of-arrival distribution for arbitrary potentials and Wigner's time-energy uncertainty relation
Baute, A D; Palao, J P; Muga, J G; Egusquiza, I L
2000-01-01
A realization of the concept of "crossing state" invoked, but not implemented, by Wigner, allows to advance in two important aspects of the time of arrival in quantum mechanics: (i) For free motion, we find that the limitations described by Aharonov et al. in Phys. Rev. A 57, 4130 (1998) for the time-of-arrival uncertainty at low energies for certain mesurement models are in fact already present in the intrinsic time-of-arrival distribution of Kijowski; (ii) We have also found a covariant generalization of this distribution for arbitrary potentials and positions.
Chart-Asa, Chidsanuphong; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald
2015-02-15
This paper develops and then demonstrates a new approach for quantifying health impacts of traffic-related particulate matter air pollution at the urban project scale that includes variability and uncertainty in the analysis. We focus on primary particulate matter having a diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5). The new approach accounts for variability in vehicle emissions due to temperature, road grade, and traffic behavior variability; seasonal variability in concentration-response coefficients; demographic variability at a fine spatial scale; uncertainty in air quality model accuracy; and uncertainty in concentration-response coefficients. We demonstrate the approach for a case study roadway corridor with a population of 16,000, where a new extension of the University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill campus is slated for construction. The results indicate that at this case study site, health impact estimates increased by factors of 4-9, depending on the health impact considered, compared to using a conventional health impact assessment approach that overlooks these variability and uncertainty sources. In addition, we demonstrate how the method can be used to assess health disparities. For example, in the case study corridor, our method demonstrates the existence of statistically significant racial disparities in exposure to traffic-related PM2.5 under present-day traffic conditions: the correlation between percent black and annual attributable deaths in each census block is 0.37 (t(114)=4.2, p<0.0001). Overall, our results show that the proposed new campus will cause only a small incremental increase in health risks (annual risk 6×10(-10); lifetime risk 4×10(-8)), compared to if the campus is not built. Nonetheless, the approach we illustrate could be useful for improving the quality of information to support decision-making for other urban development projects.
Al-Maawali, Almundher; Dupuis, Lucie; Blaser, Susan; Heon, Elise; Tarnopolsky, Mark; Al-Murshedi, Fathiya; Marshall, Christian R; Paton, Tara; Scherer, Stephen W; Roelofsen, Jeroen; van Kuilenburg, André B P; Mendoza-Londono, Roberto
2015-03-01
PRPS1 codes for the enzyme phosphoribosyl pyrophosphate synthetase-1 (PRS-1). The spectrum of PRPS1-related disorders associated with reduced activity includes Arts syndrome, Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease-5 (CMTX5) and X-linked non-syndromic sensorineural deafness (DFN2). We describe a novel phenotype associated with decreased PRS-1 function in two affected male siblings. Using whole exome and Sanger sequencing techniques, we identified a novel missense mutation in PRPS1. The clinical phenotype in our patients is characterized by high prenatal maternal α-fetoprotein, intrauterine growth restriction, dysmorphic facial features, severe intellectual disability and spastic quadraparesis. Additional phenotypic features include macular coloboma-like lesions with retinal dystrophy, severe short stature and diabetes insipidus. Exome sequencing of the two affected male siblings identified a shared putative pathogenic mutation c.586C>T p.(Arg196Trp) in the PRPS1 gene that was maternally inherited. Follow-up testing showed normal levels of hypoxanthine in urine samples and uric acid levels in blood serum. The PRS activity was significantly reduced in erythrocytes of the two patients. Nucleotide analysis in erythrocytes revealed abnormally low guanosine triphosphate and guanosine diphosphate. This presentation is the most severe form of PRPS1-deficiency syndrome described to date and expands the spectrum of PRPS1-related disorders.
Carey, S.W.
1976-01-01
Arguments in favor of an expanding earth are presented. The author believes that the theory of plate tectonics is a classic error in the history of geology. The case for the expanding earth is organized in the following way: introductory review - face of the earth, development of expanding earth concept, necessity for expansion, the subduction myth, and definitions; some principles - scale of tectonic phenomena, non-uniformitarianism, tectonic profile, paleomagnetism, asymmetry of the earth, rotation of the earth, and modes of crustal extension; regional studies - western North America, Central America, South-East Asia, and the rift oceans; tests and cause of expansion. 824 references, 197 figures, 11 tables. (RWR)
Radon contents in groundwater and the uncertainty related to risk assessment
Fukui, Masami [Kyoto Univ. (Japan)
1997-02-01
The United States has proposed 11 Bq/l (300 pCi/l) as the maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) of radon. Japan has not set up the standards for drinking water. The problems about evaluation of effects of radon on organism and MCLs of radon in groundwater and drinking water in 12 countries were reported. The local area content the high concentrations of radon, but generally it`s low levels were observed in Nigeria, China and Mexico. The countries which content high concentration of radon were Greek, Slovakia, Bornholm Island and Scotland. There are high and low concentration area in US and Japan. I proposed an uncertainty scheme on risk assessment for the exposure by radon. (S.Y.)
Post, W.M.; Dale, V.H.; DeAngelis, D.L.; Mann, L.K.; Mulholland, P.J.; O' Neill, R.V.; Peng, T.-H.; Farrell, M.P.
1990-01-01
The global carbon cycle is the dynamic interaction among the earth's carbon sources and sinks. Four reservoirs can be identified, including the atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, oceans, and sediments. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is determined by characteristics of carbon fluxes among major reservoirs of the global carbon cycle. The objective of this paper is to document the knowns, and unknowns and uncertainties associated with key questions that if answered will increase the understanding of the portion of past, present, and future atmospheric CO{sub 2} attributable to fossil fuel burning. Documented atmospheric increases in CO{sub 2} levels are thought to result primarily from fossil fuel use and, perhaps, deforestation. However, the observed atmospheric CO{sub 2} increase is less than expected from current understanding of the global carbon cycle because of poorly understood interactions among the major carbon reservoirs. 87 refs.
Post, W. M.; Dale, V. H.; DeAngelis, D. L.; Mann, L. K.; Mulholland, P. J.; O`Neill, R. V.; Peng, T. -H.; Farrell, M. P.
1990-02-01
The global carbon cycle is the dynamic interaction among the earth's carbon sources and sinks. Four reservoirs can be identified, including the atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, oceans, and sediments. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is determined by characteristics of carbon fluxes among major reservoirs of the global carbon cycle. The objective of this paper is to document the knowns, and unknowns and uncertainties associated with key questions that if answered will increase the understanding of the portion of past, present, and future atmospheric CO{sub 2} attributable to fossil fuel burning. Documented atmospheric increases in CO{sub 2} levels are thought to result primarily from fossil fuel use and, perhaps, deforestation. However, the observed atmospheric CO{sub 2} increase is less than expected from current understanding of the global carbon cycle because of poorly understood interactions among the major carbon reservoirs.
Fox, Jesse; Anderegg, Courtney
2014-11-01
Due to their pervasiveness and unique affordances, social media play a distinct role in the development of modern romantic relationships. This study examines how a social networking site is used for information seeking about a potential or current romantic partner. In a survey, Facebook users (N=517) were presented with Facebook behaviors categorized as passive (e.g., reading a partner's profile), active (e.g., "friending" a common third party), or interactive (e.g., commenting on the partner's wall) uncertainty reduction strategies. Participants reported how normative they perceived these behaviors to be during four possible stages of relationship development (before meeting face-to-face, after meeting face-to-face, casual dating, and exclusive dating). Results indicated that as relationships progress, perceived norms for these behaviors change. Sex differences were also observed, as women perceived passive and interactive strategies as more normative than men during certain relationship stages.
2007-01-01
Full Text Available This paper addresses two major challenges in climate change impact analysis on water resources systems: (i incorporation of a large range of potential climate change scenarios and (ii quantification of related modelling uncertainties. The methodology of climate change impact modelling is developed and illustrated through application to a hydropower plant in the Swiss Alps that uses the discharge of a highly glacierised catchment. The potential climate change impacts are analysed in terms of system performance for the control period (1961–1990 and for the future period (2070–2099 under a range of climate change scenarios. The system performance is simulated through a set of four model types, including the production of regional climate change scenarios based on global-mean warming scenarios, the corresponding discharge model, the model of glacier surface evolution and the hydropower management model. The modelling uncertainties inherent in each model type are characterised and quantified separately. The overall modelling uncertainty is simulated through Monte Carlo simulations of the system behaviour for the control and the future period. The results obtained for both periods lead to the conclusion that potential climate change has a statistically significant negative impact on the system performance.
Sun, Liang; Zheng, Zewei
2017-04-01
An adaptive relative pose control strategy is proposed for a pursue spacecraft in proximity operations on a tumbling target. Relative position vector between two spacecraft is required to direct towards the docking port of the target while the attitude of them must be synchronized. With considering the thrust misalignment of pursuer, an integrated controller for relative translational and relative rotational dynamics is developed by using norm-wise adaptive estimations. Parametric uncertainties, unknown coupled dynamics, and bounded external disturbances are compensated online by adaptive update laws. It is proved via Lyapunov stability theory that the tracking errors of relative pose converge to zero asymptotically. Numerical simulations including six degrees-of-freedom rigid body dynamics are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed controller.
Duffy, P.; Keller, M. M.; Morton, D. C.
2016-12-01
Carbon accounting for REDD+ requires knowledge of deforestation, degradation, and associated changes in forest carbon stocks. Degradation is more difficult to detect than deforestation so SilvaCarbon, an US inter-agency effort, has set a priority to better characterize forest degradation effects on carbon loss. By combining information from forest inventory and lidar data products, impacts of deforestation, degradation, and associated changes in forest carbon stocks can be more accurately characterized across space. Our approach employs a hierarchical Bayesian modeling (HBM) framework where the assimilation of information from multiple sources is accomplished using a change of support (COS) technique. The COS formulation allows data from multiple spatial resolutions to be assimilated into an intermediate resolution. This approach is being applied in Paragominas, a jurisdiction in the eastern Brazilian Amazon with a high proportion of logged and burned degraded forests where political change has opened the way for REDD+. We build on a long history of research including our extensive studies of logging damage. Our primary objective is to quantify above-ground carbon stocks and corresponding uncertainty in a spatially explicit manner. A secondary objective is to quantify the relative contribution of lower level data products to the overall uncertainty, allowing for more focused subsequent data collection in the context of uncertainty reduction. This approach provides a mechanism to assimilate information from multiple sources to produce spatially-explicit maps of carbon stocks and changes with corresponding spatially explicit maps of uncertainty. Importantly, this approach also provides a mechanism that can be used to assess the value of information from specific data products.
Levy, J.I.; Baxter, L.K.; Schwartz, J. [Harvard University, Cambridge, MA (United States). Harvard School of Public Health
2009-07-15
The health-related damages associated with emissions from coal-fired power plants can vary greatly across facilities as a function of plant, site, and population characteristics, but the degree of variability and the contributing factors have not been formally evaluated. In this study, we modeled the monetized damages associated with 407 coal-fired power plants in the United States, focusing on premature mortality from fine particulate matter (PM2.5). We applied a reduced-form chemistry-transport model accounting for primary PM2.5 emissions and the influence of sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions on secondary particulate formation. Outputs were linked with a concentration-response function for PM2.5-related mortality that incorporated nonlinearities and model uncertainty. We valued mortality with a value of statistical life approach, characterizing and propagating uncertainties in all model elements. At the median of the plant-specific uncertainty distributions, damages across plants ranged from $30,000 to $500,000 per ton of PM2.5, $6,000 to $50,000 per ton of SO{sub 2}, $500 to $15,000 per ton of NOx, and $0.02 to $1.57 per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated. Variability in damages per ton of emissions was almost entirely explained by population exposure per unit emissions (intake fraction), which itself was related to atmospheric conditions and the population size at various distances from the power plant. Variability in damages per kilowatt-hour was highly correlated with SO{sub 2} emissions, related to fuel and control technology characteristics, but was also correlated with atmospheric conditions and population size at various distances.
Relating $\\hat{q}$, $\\eta/s$ and $\\Delta E$ in an expanding Quark-Gluon Plasma
Ayala, Alejandro; Jalilian-Marian, Jamal; Tejeda-Yeomans, Maria Elena
2016-01-01
We use linear viscous hydrodynamics to describe the energy and momentum deposited by a fast moving parton in a quark gluon plasma. This energy-momentum is in turn used to compute the probability density for the production of soft partons by means of the Cooper-Frye formula. We use this probability density to render manifest a relation between the average transverse momentum given to the fast moving parton from the medium $\\hat{q}$, the entropy density to shear viscosity ratio $\\eta/s$ and the energy lost by the fast moving parton $\\Delta E$ in an expanding medium under similar conditions to those generated in nucleus-nucleus collisions at the LHC. We find that $\\hat{q}$ increases linearly with $\\Delta E$ for both trigger and away side partons that have been produced throughout the medium. On the other hand, $\\eta/s$ is more stable with $\\Delta E$. We also study how these transport coefficients vary with the geometrical location of the hard scattering that produces the fast moving partons. The behavior of $\\ha...
Large uncertainty in soil carbon modelling related to carbon input calculation method
Keel, Sonja G.; Leifeld, Jens; Taghizadeh-Toosi, Arezoo; Oleson, Jørgen E.
2016-04-01
A model-based inventory for carbon (C) sinks and sources in agricultural soils is being established for Switzerland. As part of this project, five frequently used allometric equations that estimate soil C inputs based on measured yields are compared. To evaluate the different methods, we calculate soil C inputs for a long-term field trial in Switzerland. This DOK experiment (bio-Dynamic, bio-Organic, and conventional (German: Konventionell)) compares five different management systems, that are applied to identical crop rotations. Average calculated soil C inputs vary largely between allometric equations and range from 1.6 t C ha-1 yr-1 to 2.6 t C ha-1 yr-1. Among the most important crops in Switzerland, the uncertainty is largest for barley (difference between highest and lowest estimate: 3.0 t C ha-1 yr-1). For the unfertilized control treatment, the estimated soil C inputs vary less between allometric equations than for the treatment that received mineral fertilizer and farmyard manure. Most likely, this is due to the higher yields in the latter treatment, i.e. the difference between methods might be amplified because yields differ more. To evaluate the influence of these allometric equations on soil C dynamics we simulate the DOK trial for the years 1977-2004 using the model C-TOOL (Taghizadeh-Toosi et al. 2014) and the five different soil C input calculation methods. Across all treatments, C-TOOL simulates a decrease in soil C in line with the experimental data. This decline, however, varies between allometric equations (-2.4 t C ha-1 to -6.3 t C ha-1 for the years 1977-2004) and has the same order of magnitude as the difference between treatments. In summary, the method to estimate soil C inputs is identified as a significant source of uncertainty in soil C modelling. Choosing an appropriate allometric equation to derive the input data is thus a critical step when setting up a model-based national soil C inventory. References Taghizadeh-Toosi A et al. (2014) C
Bostel, D. von (DETA Akkumulatorenwerk GmbH, Bad Lauterberg (Germany)); Hoogestraat, G. (DETA Akkumulatorenwerk GmbH, Bad Lauterberg (Germany)); Ziechmann, W. (Working Group & #x27; Soil Chemistry& #x27; , Georg-August Univ., Goettingen (Germany))
1994-05-15
Organic expanders represent essential additives to the negative active material of lead/acid batteries, since they prevent the negative electrode from compaction during life cycling. Focussing on stability and efficiency of expanders, industrial lignosulfonates and humic substances from peat bogs, in comparison, were fractionated, chemically altered and analysed. With respect to a correlation of functional groups and expander action, these organic samples, fractions, and derivatives were assessed based on a cylcovoltammetric determination of expander performance. The majority of the humic material showed poorer aptitude than the commercially available lignosulfonate expanders. Improved performance was found for precursors of humic acids with a low molecular weight. The obtained results indicate the bonding mechanisms by functional groups like cation exchange, chelating, or formation of [pi]-[epsilon] complexes do not seem to be significant. A good expander aptitude of some humic derivatives is attributed to their colloidal nature. It is assumed that the coagulation of colloids with low molecular weight is hindered, as these colloids form adsorbed surface films in the negative active material. The films cause an overpotential for the reduction of PbSO[sub 4] resulting in fine-grained structures of the lead particles. (orig.)
Nikulin, Grigory; Bosshard, Thomas; Wilcke, Renate; Yang, Wei; Kjellström, Erik; Bärring, Lars
2015-04-01
Bias adjustment has become an integral part of pre-processing of climate simulations for use in impact modeling studies. Considered now as a necessary step to deal with inability of climate models to accurately simulate the present/recent climate, bias adjustment is a statistical approach missing physical arguments. Even if bias adjustment is widely used nowadays it is still a topic for debates and criticism. One of the main questions is what level of uncertainty does bias adjustment introduce to future climate projections? In this study, using an ensemble of the CORDEX-Africa simulations, we investigate potential impact of bias adjustment on the simulated rainy season in West Africa. A number of characteristics reflecting different aspects of the rainy season are used, namely: onset and cessation of the rainy season, mean intensity, total amount of precipitation and intra-seasonal variability within the rainy season. All these characteristics are evaluated in the original CORDEX-Africa simulations and in bias-adjusted ones for a reference period first and then future climate projections of these characteristics are compared between two ensembles. Additionally, we examine how bias adjustment may impact selection of a smaller more manageable ensemble of regional climate simulations from a grand one.
Prior information: how to beat the standard joint-measurement uncertainty relation
Hall, M J W
2003-01-01
The canonical joint measurement of position X and momentum P corresponds to measuring the commuting operators X_J=X+X', P_J=P-P', where the primed variables refer to an auxilary system in a minimum-uncertainty state. It is well known that Delta X_J Delta P_J >= hbar. Here it is shown that given the _same_ physical experimental setup, and information about the system_prior_ to measurement, one can make improved joint estimates X_est and P_est of X and P. These improved estimates are not only statistically closer to X and P: they satisfy Delta X_est Delta P_est >= hbar/4, where equality can be achieved in certain cases. Thus one can do up to four times better than the standard lower bound (where the latter corresponds to the limit of_no_ prior information). A formula is given for the optimal estimate of any observable, based on arbitrary measurement data and prior information about the state of the system, which generalises and provides a more robust interpretation of previous formulas for `local expectations' ...
Estimation of measurement uncertainty arising from manual sampling of fuels.
Theodorou, Dimitrios; Liapis, Nikolaos; Zannikos, Fanourios
2013-02-15
Sampling is an important part of any measurement process and is therefore recognized as an important contributor to the measurement uncertainty. A reliable estimation of the uncertainty arising from sampling of fuels leads to a better control of risks associated with decisions concerning whether product specifications are met or not. The present work describes and compares the results of three empirical statistical methodologies (classical ANOVA, robust ANOVA and range statistics) using data from a balanced experimental design, which includes duplicate samples analyzed in duplicate from 104 sampling targets (petroleum retail stations). These methodologies are used for the estimation of the uncertainty arising from the manual sampling of fuel (automotive diesel) and the subsequent sulfur mass content determination. The results of the three methodologies statistically differ, with the expanded uncertainty of sampling being in the range of 0.34-0.40 mg kg(-1), while the relative expanded uncertainty lying in the range of 4.8-5.1%, depending on the methodology used. The estimation of robust ANOVA (sampling expanded uncertainty of 0.34 mg kg(-1) or 4.8% in relative terms) is considered more reliable, because of the presence of outliers within the 104 datasets used for the calculations. Robust ANOVA, in contrast to classical ANOVA and range statistics, accommodates outlying values, lessening their effects on the produced estimates. The results of this work also show that, in the case of manual sampling of fuels, the main contributor to the whole measurement uncertainty is the analytical measurement uncertainty, with the sampling uncertainty accounting only for the 29% of the total measurement uncertainty.
Sanchez-Vila, X.; de Barros, F.; Bolster, D.; Nowak, W.
2010-12-01
Assessing the potential risk of hydro(geo)logical supply systems to human population is an interdisciplinary field. It relies on the expertise in fields as distant as hydrogeology, medicine, or anthropology, and needs powerful translation concepts to provide decision support and policy making. Reliable health risk estimates need to account for the uncertainties in hydrological, physiological and human behavioral parameters. We propose the use of fault trees to address the task of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) and to support related management decisions. Fault trees allow decomposing the assessment of health risk into individual manageable modules, thus tackling a complex system by a structural “Divide and Conquer” approach. The complexity within each module can be chosen individually according to data availability, parsimony, relative importance and stage of analysis. The separation in modules allows for a true inter- and multi-disciplinary approach. This presentation highlights the three novel features of our work: (1) we define failure in terms of risk being above a threshold value, whereas previous studies used auxiliary events such as exceedance of critical concentration levels, (2) we plot an integrated fault tree that handles uncertainty in both hydrological and health components in a unified way, and (3) we introduce a new form of stochastic fault tree that allows to weaken the assumption of independent subsystems that is required by a classical fault tree approach. We illustrate our concept in a simple groundwater-related setting.
Daugman, J G
1985-07-01
Two-dimensional spatial linear filters are constrained by general uncertainty relations that limit their attainable information resolution for orientation, spatial frequency, and two-dimensional (2D) spatial position. The theoretical lower limit for the joint entropy, or uncertainty, of these variables is achieved by an optimal 2D filter family whose spatial weighting functions are generated by exponentiated bivariate second-order polynomials with complex coefficients, the elliptic generalization of the one-dimensional elementary functions proposed in Gabor's famous theory of communication [J. Inst. Electr. Eng. 93, 429 (1946)]. The set includes filters with various orientation bandwidths, spatial-frequency bandwidths, and spatial dimensions, favoring the extraction of various kinds of information from an image. Each such filter occupies an irreducible quantal volume (corresponding to an independent datum) in a four-dimensional information hyperspace whose axes are interpretable as 2D visual space, orientation, and spatial frequency, and thus such a filter set could subserve an optimally efficient sampling of these variables. Evidence is presented that the 2D receptive-field profiles of simple cells in mammalian visual cortex are well described by members of this optimal 2D filter family, and thus such visual neurons could be said to optimize the general uncertainty relations for joint 2D-spatial-2D-spectral information resolution. The variety of their receptive-field dimensions and orientation and spatial-frequency bandwidths, and the correlations among these, reveal several underlying constraints, particularly in width/length aspect ratio and principal axis organization, suggesting a polar division of labor in occupying the quantal volumes of information hyperspace.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
Koerner, Naomi; Mejia, Teresa; Kusec, Andrea
2017-03-01
A number of studies have examined the association of intolerance of uncertainty (IU) to trait worry and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). However, few studies have examined the extent of overlap between IU and other psychological constructs that bear conceptual resemblance to IU, despite the fact that IU-type constructs have been discussed and examined extensively within psychology and other disciplines. The present study investigated (1) the associations of IU, trait worry, and GAD status to a negative risk orientation, trait curiosity, indecisiveness, perceived constraints, self-oriented and socially prescribed perfectionism, intolerance of ambiguity, the need for predictability, and the need for order and structure and (2) whether IU is a unique correlate of trait worry and of the presence versus absence of Probable GAD, when overlap with other uncertainty-relevant constructs is accounted for. N = 255 adults completed self-report measures of the aforementioned constructs. Each of the constructs was significantly associated with IU. Only IU, and a subset of the other uncertainty-relevant constructs were correlated with trait worry or distinguished the Probable GAD group from the Non-GAD group. IU was the strongest unique correlate of trait worry and of the presence versus absence of Probable GAD. Indecisiveness, self-oriented perfectionism and the need for predictability were also unique correlates of trait worry or GAD status. Implications of the findings are discussed, in particular as they pertain to the definition, conceptualization, and cognitive-behavioral treatment of IU in GAD.
Van Otterlo, M
2009-01-01
Markov decision processes have become the de facto standard in modeling and solving sequential decision making problems under uncertainty. This book studies lifting Markov decision processes, reinforcement learning and dynamic programming to the first-order (or, relational) setting.
Davidson, Ann E.; Carlson, Heather A.; Moore, Brian E.; Love, Seth; Born, Donald E.; Roper, Helen; Majumdar, Anirban; Jayadev, Suman; Underhill, Hunter R.; Smith, Corrine O.; von der Hagen, Maja; Hubner, Angela; Jardine, Philip; Merrison, Andria; Curtis, Elizabeth; Cullup, Thomas; Jungbluth, Heinz; Cox, Mary O.; Winder, Thomas L.; Abdel Salam, Hossam; Li, Jun Z.; Moore, Steven A.; Dowling, James J.
2013-01-01
The β-tropomyosin gene encodes a component of the sarcomeric thin filament. Rod-shaped dimers of tropomyosin regulate actin-myosin interactions and β-tropomyosin mutations have been associated with nemaline myopathy, cap myopathy, Escobar syndrome and distal arthrogryposis types 1A and 2B. In this study, we expand the allelic spectrum of β-tropomyosin-related myopathies through the identification of a novel β-tropomyosin mutation in two clinical contexts not previously associated with β-tropomyosin. The first clinical phenotype is core-rod myopathy, with a β-tropomyosin mutation uncovered by whole exome sequencing in a family with autosomal dominant distal myopathy and muscle biopsy features of both minicores and nemaline rods. The second phenotype, observed in four unrelated families, is autosomal dominant trismus-pseudocamptodactyly syndrome (distal arthrogryposis type 7; previously associated exclusively with myosin heavy chain 8 mutations). In all four families, the mutation identified was a novel 3-bp in-frame deletion (c.20_22del) that results in deletion of a conserved lysine at the seventh amino acid position (p.K7del). This is the first mutation identified in the extreme N-terminus of β-tropomyosin. To understand the potential pathogenic mechanism(s) underlying this mutation, we performed both computational analysis and in vivo modelling. Our theoretical model predicts that the mutation disrupts the N-terminus of the α-helices of dimeric β-tropomyosin, a change predicted to alter protein–protein binding between β-tropomyosin and other molecules and to disturb head-to-tail polymerization of β-tropomyosin dimers. To create an in vivo model, we expressed wild-type or p.K7del β-tropomyosin in the developing zebrafish. p.K7del β-tropomyosin fails to localize properly within the thin filament compartment and its expression alters sarcomere length, suggesting that the mutation interferes with head-to-tail β-tropomyosin polymerization and with
Lundgaard Andersen, Linda; Soldz, Stephen
2012-01-01
A major theme in recent psychoanalytic thinking concerns the use of therapist subjectivity, especially “countertransference,” in understanding patients. This thinking converges with and expands developments in qualitative research regarding the use of researcher subjectivity as a tool to understa...
Al-Hashimi, M H
2012-01-01
We consider a 1-parameter family of self-adjoint extensions of the Hamiltonian for a particle confined to a finite interval with perfectly reflecting boundary conditions. In some cases, one obtains negative energy states which seems to violate the Heisenberg uncertainty relation. We use this as a motivation to derive a generalized uncertainty relation valid for an arbitrarily shaped quantum dot with general perfectly reflecting walls in $d$ dimensions. In addition, a general uncertainty relation for non-Hermitean operators is derived and applied to the non-Hermitean momentum operator in a quantum dot. We also consider minimal uncertainty wave packets in this situation, and we prove that the spectrum depends monotonically on the self-adjoint extension parameter. In addition, we construct the most general boundary conditions for semiconductor heterostructures such as quantum dots, quantum wires, and quantum wells, which are characterized by a 4-parameter family of self-adjoint extensions. Finally, we consider p...
Alghamdi MA
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Mariana A Alghamdi,1 Nada J Farsi,2 Ali H Hassan3 1Faculty of Dentistry, 2Department of Dental Public Health, 3Department of Orthodontics, Faculty of Dentistry, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Introduction and purpose: Wearing orthodontic appliances may negatively affect a patient’s oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL physiologically, psychologically, and socially. Few studies have assessed the effect of palatal expanders on OHRQoL. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of palatal expanders on OHRQoL and to compare it with that of fixed orthodontic appliances. Materials and methods: All adolescent and adult orthodontic patients who were undergoing treatment with fixed appliances or palatal expanders between July 2015 and January 2016 in King Abdulaziz University Orthodontc Dental Clinics, were recruited (n=399. The OHRQoL of each participant was assessed using the shortened Arabic version of the Oral Health Impact Profile-14 questionnaire. OHRQoL was compared between users of fixed appliances and users of palatal expanders; it was also compared after stratifying the patients by gender. Chi-squared and Fisher’s exact tests were used, as indicated. Results: Palatal expanders had significantly greater negative effects on chewing ability (P≤0.01 and pronunciation (P=0.048. However, fixed orthodontic appliances had significantly greater negative impacts on mouth aching (P=0.003, difficulty in relaxing (P=0.01, irritability (P=0.001, and embarrassment (P≤0.01. Conclusion: Palatal expanders had a significantly greater negative impact on some aspects of OHRQoL when compared with fixed orthodontic appliances in adolescents and young adults. Keywords: OHRQoL, OHIP, OHIP-14, fixed orthodontic treatment, palatal expander
About uncertainties in practical salinity calculations
M. Le Menn
2009-10-01
Full Text Available Salinity is a quantity computed, in the actual state of the art, from conductivity ratio measurements, knowing temperature and pressure at the time of the measurement and using the Practical Salinity Scale algorithm of 1978 (PSS-78 which gives practical salinity values S. The uncertainty expected on PSS-78 values is ±0.002, but nothing has ever been detailed about the method to work out this uncertainty, and the sources of errors to include in this calculation. Following a guide edited by the Bureau International des Poids et Mesures (BIPM, this paper assess, by two independent methods, the uncertainties of salinity values obtained from a laboratory salinometer and Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD measurements after laboratory calibration of a conductivity cell. The results show that the part due to the PSS-78 relations fits is sometimes as much significant as the instruments one's. This is particularly the case with CTD measurements where correlations between the variables contribute to decrease largely the uncertainty on S, even when the expanded uncertainties on conductivity cells calibrations are largely up of 0.002 mS/cm. The relations given in this publication, and obtained with the normalized GUM method, allow a real analysis of the uncertainties sources and they can be used in a more general way, with instruments having different specifications.
Zhu, T.; Vasiliev, A.; Ferroukhi, H.; Pautz, A.
2014-04-01
At the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), a methodology titled PSI-NUSS is under development for the propagation of nuclear data uncertainties into Criticality Safety Evaluation (CSE) with the Monte Carlo code MCNPX. The primary purpose is to provide a complementary option for the uncertainty assessment related to nuclear data, versus the traditional approach which relies on estimating biases/uncertainties based on validation studies against representative critical benchmark experiments. In the present paper, the PSI-NUSS methodology is applied to quantify nuclear data uncertainties for the OECD/NEA UACSA Exercise Phase I benchmark. One underlying reason is that PSI's CSE methodology developed so far and previously applied for this benchmark was based on using a more conventional approach, involving engineering guesses in order to estimate uncertainties in the calculated effective multiplication factor (keff). Therefore, as the PSI-NUSS methodology aims precisely at integrating a more rigorous treatment of the specific type of uncertainties from nuclear data for CSE, its application to the UACSA is conducted here: nuclear data related uncertainty component is estimated and compared to results obtained by other participants using different codes/libraries and methodologies.
On The Uncertainties Related To The Estimation Of Extreme Environmental Condition
Burcharth, Hans F.
1986-01-01
The calculation of the forces on the structural members of a structure in the sea is based on knowledge of the kinematics of the surrounding water and air. Therefore our goal is to establish some statistics for the related velocity and acceleration fields....
Radożycki, Tomasz
2016-11-01
The probability density distributions for the ground states of certain model systems in quantum mechanics and for their classical counterparts are considered. It is shown, that classical distributions are remarkably improved by incorporating into them the Heisenberg uncertainty relation between position and momentum. Even the crude form of this incorporation makes the agreement between classical and quantum distributions unexpectedly good, except for the small area, where classical momenta are large. It is demonstrated that the slight improvement of this form, makes the classical distribution very similar to the quantum one in the whole space. The obtained results are much better than those from the WKB method. The paper is devoted to ground states, but the method applies to excited states too.
Hukkerikar, Amol; Kalakul, Sawitree; Sarup, Bent; Young, Douglas M.; Sin, Gürkan; Gani, Rafiqul
2012-01-01
The aim of this work is to develop group-3 contribution+ (GC+)method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI)) based 15 property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncertainties of estimated property values. For this purpose, a systematic methodology for property modeling and uncertainty analysis is used. The methodology includes a parameter estimation step to determine parameters of pro...
Xing Chen
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Despite the importance of adoption of mobile health services by an organization on the diffusion of mobile technology in the big data era, it has received minimal attention in literature. This study investigates how relative advantage and perceived credibility affect an organization’s adoption of mobile health services, as well as how environmental uncertainty changes the relationship of relative advantage and perceived credibility with adoption. A research model that integrates relative advantage, perceived credibility, environmental uncertainty, and an organization’s intention to use mobile health service is developed. Quantitative data are collected from senior managers and information systems managers in 320 Chinese healthcare organizations. The empirical findings show that while relative advantage and perceived credibility both have positive effects on an organization’s intention to use mobile health services, relative advantage plays a more important role than perceived credibility. Moreover, environmental uncertainty positively moderates the effect of relative advantage on an organization’s adoption of mobile health services. Thus, mobile health services in environments characterized with high levels of uncertainty are more likely to be adopted because of relative advantage than in environments with low levels of uncertainty.
The Classical Limit of Minimal Length Uncertainty Relation:Revisit with the Hamilton-Jacobi Method
Guo, Xiaobo; Yang, Haitang
2015-01-01
The existence of a minimum measurable length could deform not only the standard quantum mechanics but also classical physics. The effects of the minimal length on classical orbits of particles in a gravitation field have been investigated before, using the deformed Poisson bracket or Schwarzschild metric. In this paper, we use the Hamilton-Jacobi method to study motions of particles in the context of deformed Newtonian mechanics and general relativity. Specifically, the precession of planetary orbits, deflection of light, and time delay in radar propagation are considered in this paper. We also set limits on the deformation parameter by comparing our results with the observational measurements. Finally, comparison with results from previous papers is given at the end of this paper.
The classical limit of minimal length uncertainty relation: revisit with the Hamilton-Jacobi method
Guo, Xiaobo; Wang, Peng; Yang, Haitang
2016-05-01
The existence of a minimum measurable length could deform not only the standard quantum mechanics but also classical physics. The effects of the minimal length on classical orbits of particles in a gravitation field have been investigated before, using the deformed Poisson bracket or Schwarzschild metric. In this paper, we first use the Hamilton-Jacobi method to derive the deformed equations of motion in the context of Newtonian mechanics and general relativity. We then employ them to study the precession of planetary orbits, deflection of light, and time delay in radar propagation. We also set limits on the deformation parameter by comparing our results with the observational measurements. Finally, comparison with results from previous papers is given at the end of this paper.
Fontenot, Jonas D.; Bloch, Charles; Followill, David; Titt, Uwe; Newhauser, Wayne D.
2010-12-01
Theoretical calculations have shown that proton therapy can reduce the incidence of radiation-induced secondary malignant neoplasms (SMN) compared with photon therapy for patients with prostate cancer. However, the uncertainties associated with calculations of SMN risk had not been assessed. The objective of this study was to quantify the uncertainties in projected risks of secondary cancer following contemporary proton and photon radiotherapies for prostate cancer. We performed a rigorous propagation of errors and several sensitivity tests to estimate the uncertainty in the ratio of relative risk (RRR) due to the largest contributors to the uncertainty: the radiation weighting factor for neutrons, the dose-response model for radiation carcinogenesis and interpatient variations in absorbed dose. The interval of values for the radiation weighting factor for neutrons and the dose-response model were derived from the literature, while interpatient variations in absorbed dose were taken from actual patient data. The influence of each parameter on a baseline RRR value was quantified. Our analysis revealed that the calculated RRR was insensitive to the largest contributors to the uncertainty. Uncertainties in the radiation weighting factor for neutrons, the shape of the dose-risk model and interpatient variations in therapeutic and stray doses introduced a total uncertainty of 33% to the baseline RRR calculation.
Hong, Soo Jung; You, Kyung Han
2016-12-01
Using the 2013 HINTS 4 Cycle 2 data representing a general population sample, this study investigates the effects of patients' experiences of uncertainty about prostate cancer during doctor-patient communication, as well as patients' positive assessments of their cancer-related information-seeking experiences, on their fatalistic beliefs regarding cancer and their trust in physicians. Our tests show significant differences in trust in physicians among men who do and do not experience uncertainty about the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test during doctor-patient communication. The analysis also indicates that individuals with experiences of uncertainty about the PSA test are more likely than those without such experiences of uncertainty to place their trust in doctors. However, no apparent difference or association exists when there are uncertainties relating to treatment choices regarding slow-growing cancer or treatment side effects. Nevertheless, as hypothesized, individuals who positively evaluate their cancer-related information-seeking experiences are less likely to have fatalistic beliefs about cancer. Furthermore, patients' positive assessments are highly predictive of their levels of trust in their physicians. Additionally, tests of interaction effects show that individuals' levels of education moderate the association between uncertainty experiences about the PSA test and both cancer fatalism and trust in physicians. Further implications and limitations of the study are discussed.
Masahito, Hayashi [ERATO, Quantum Computation and Information Project, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Tokyo (Japan); Reynaud, S. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Lab. Kastler Brossel, 75 - Paris (France); Jaekel, M.Th. [Ecole Nationale Superieure de Chimie, Lab. de Physique Theorique 75 - Paris (France); Fiuraaek, J. [Palacky Univ., Dept. of Optics (Czech Republic); Garcia-Patron, R.; Cerf, N.J. [QUIC, Ecole Polytechnique, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels (Belgium); Hage, B.; Chelkowski, S.; Franzen, A.; Lastzka, N.; Vahlbruch, N.; Danzmann, K.; Schnabel, R. [Hannover Univ., Institut Faur Atom- und Molekaulphysik, Max-Planck-Institut, Gravitationsphysik (Albert-Einstein-Institut) (Germany); Hassan, S.S. [Bahrain Univ., Dept. of Mathematics, College of Science (Bahrain); Joshi, A. [Arkansas, Univ., Dept. of Physics, Fayetteville, AR (United States); Jakob, M. [ARC Seibersdorf Research GmbH (ARCS), Tech Gate Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Bergou, J.A. [New York City Univ., Dept. of Physics, Hunter College, NY (United States); Kozlovskii, A.V. [P.N.Lebedev Physical Institute, Moscow (Russian Federation); Prakash, H. [Allahabad Univ., Dept. of Physics (India)]|[Allahabad Univ., M. N. Saha Centre of Space Studies, Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies (India); Kumar, R. [Allahabad Univ., Dept. of Physics (India)]|[Udai Pratap Autonomous College (India)
2005-07-01
The purpose of the conference was to bring together people working in the field of quantum optics, with special emphasis on non-classical light sources and related areas, quantum computing, statistical mechanics and mathematical physics. As a novelty, this edition will include the topics of quantum imaging, quantum phase noise and number theory in quantum mechanics. This document gives the program of the conference and gathers the abstracts.
Bartley, David; Lidén, Göran
2008-08-01
The reporting of measurement uncertainty has recently undergone a major harmonization whereby characteristics of a measurement method obtained during establishment and application are combined componentwise. For example, the sometimes-pesky systematic error is included. A bias component of uncertainty can be often easily established as the uncertainty in the bias. However, beyond simply arriving at a value for uncertainty, meaning to this uncertainty if needed can sometimes be developed in terms of prediction confidence in uncertainty-based intervals covering what is to be measured. To this end, a link between concepts of accuracy and uncertainty is established through a simple yet accurate approximation to a random variable known as the non-central Student's t-distribution. Without a measureless and perpetual uncertainty, the drama of human life would be destroyed. Winston Churchill.
Thomas, R.E.
1982-03-01
An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software.
Lindley, Dennis V
2013-01-01
Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.
周涛; 王同兴
2005-01-01
The sources of uncertainty of relative atomic mass include measurement errors and isotopic fractionation of terrestrial samples. Measurement errors are composed of measurements of atomic masses and isotopic abundances, the later includes uncertainty of correction factor K and isotopic ratios of natural samples. Through differential of seven factors to gain their propagation factors, the uncertainty of correction factors K can be calculated. With the same differential calculation, the uncertainty of relative atomic mass can be obtained.
Yang, Ming; Zhu, X Ronald; Park, Peter C; Titt, Uwe; Mohan, Radhe; Virshup, Gary; Clayton, James E; Dong, Lei
2012-07-07
The purpose of this study was to analyze factors affecting proton stopping-power-ratio (SPR) estimations and range uncertainties in proton therapy planning using the standard stoichiometric calibration. The SPR uncertainties were grouped into five categories according to their origins and then estimated based on previously published reports or measurements. For the first time, the impact of tissue composition variations on SPR estimation was assessed and the uncertainty estimates of each category were determined for low-density (lung), soft, and high-density (bone) tissues. A composite, 95th percentile water-equivalent-thickness uncertainty was calculated from multiple beam directions in 15 patients with various types of cancer undergoing proton therapy. The SPR uncertainties (1σ) were quite different (ranging from 1.6% to 5.0%) in different tissue groups, although the final combined uncertainty (95th percentile) for different treatment sites was fairly consistent at 3.0-3.4%, primarily because soft tissue is the dominant tissue type in the human body. The dominant contributing factor for uncertainties in soft tissues was the degeneracy of Hounsfield numbers in the presence of tissue composition variations. To reduce the overall uncertainties in SPR estimation, the use of dual-energy computed tomography is suggested. The values recommended in this study based on typical treatment sites and a small group of patients roughly agree with the commonly referenced value (3.5%) used for margin design. By using tissue-specific range uncertainties, one could estimate the beam-specific range margin by accounting for different types and amounts of tissues along a beam, which may allow for customization of range uncertainty for each beam direction.
Uncertainty Relation for Chaos
Yahalom, A; Levitan, J; Elgressy, G; Horwitz, L P; Ben-Zion, Y
2011-01-01
A necessary condition for the emergence of chaos is given. It is well known that the emergence of chaos requires a positive exponent which entails diverging trajectories. Here we show that this is not enough. An additional necessary condition for the emergence of chaos in the region where the trajectory of the system goes through, is that the product of the maximal positive exponent times the duration in which the system configuration point stays in the unstable region should exceed unity. We give a theoretical analysis justifying this result and a few examples.
Heisenberg's uncertainty principle
Busch, Paul; Heinonen, Teiko; Lahti, Pekka
2007-01-01
Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is usually taken to express a limitation of operational possibilities imposed by quantum mechanics. Here we demonstrate that the full content of this principle also includes its positive role as a condition ensuring that mutually exclusive experimental options can be reconciled if an appropriate trade-off is accepted. The uncertainty principle is shown to appear in three manifestations, in the form of uncertainty relations: for the widths of the position and...
Taboada-Suarez, Antonio; Brea-García, Beatriz; Magán-Muñoz, Fernando; Couto-González, Iván; González-Álvarez, Eduardo
2015-12-01
Although autologous tissue reconstruction is the best option for breast reconstruction, using implants is still a reliable and simple method, offering acceptable aesthetic results. Becker-type implants are permanent implants that offer a 1-stage reconstructive option. A retrospective study was carried out in our center reviewing the clinical reports of 237 patients, in whom a total of 314 Becker-type prostheses were implanted. Overall survival was calculated using a Kaplan-Meier estimate. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios. At the end of the study, 214 expanders (68.15%) presented no complications, 40 (12.47%) developed significant capsular contracture, in 27 (8.60%) infection occurred, 24 (7.64%) suffered minor complications, and 9 (2.87%) ruptured. The mean survival time of the expanders was 120.41 months (95% CI: 109.62, 131.19). Radiotherapy, chemotherapy, high Molecular Immunology Borstel, age, mastectomy performed previously to the implant, ductal carcinoma, advanced tumoral stage, experience of the surgeon, and Becker 35-type implants were significantly related to a high number of complications in relation to the survival of the implants. Cox regression analysis revealed that the main risk factors for the survival of expander implants included radiotherapy and surgeon experience. The complication hazard ratio or relative risk caused by these 2 factors was 1.976 and 1.680, respectively. One-stage reconstruction using Becker-type expanders is an appropriate, simple, and reliable option in delayed breast reconstruction in patients who have not received radiotherapy and as long as the procedure is carried out by surgeons skilled in the technique.
A broadband chip-scale optical frequency synthesizer at 2.7 × 10(-16) relative uncertainty.
Huang, Shu-Wei; Yang, Jinghui; Yu, Mingbin; McGuyer, Bart H; Kwong, Dim-Lee; Zelevinsky, Tanya; Wong, Chee Wei
2016-04-01
Optical frequency combs-coherent light sources that connect optical frequencies with microwave oscillations-have become the enabling tool for precision spectroscopy, optical clockwork, and attosecond physics over the past decades. Current benchmark systems are self-referenced femtosecond mode-locked lasers, but Kerr nonlinear dynamics in high-Q solid-state microresonators has recently demonstrated promising features as alternative platforms. The advance not only fosters studies of chip-scale frequency metrology but also extends the realm of optical frequency combs. We report the full stabilization of chip-scale optical frequency combs. The microcomb's two degrees of freedom, one of the comb lines and the native 18-GHz comb spacing, are simultaneously phase-locked to known optical and microwave references. Active comb spacing stabilization improves long-term stability by six orders of magnitude, reaching a record instrument-limited residual instability of [Formula: see text]. Comparing 46 nitride frequency comb lines with a fiber laser frequency comb, we demonstrate the unprecedented microcomb tooth-to-tooth relative frequency uncertainty down to 50 mHz and 2.7 × 10(-16), heralding novel solid-state applications in precision spectroscopy, coherent communications, and astronomical spectrography.
A broadband chip-scale optical frequency synthesizer at 2.7 × 10−16 relative uncertainty
Huang, Shu-Wei; Yang, Jinghui; Yu, Mingbin; McGuyer, Bart H.; Kwong, Dim-Lee; Zelevinsky, Tanya; Wong, Chee Wei
2016-01-01
Optical frequency combs—coherent light sources that connect optical frequencies with microwave oscillations—have become the enabling tool for precision spectroscopy, optical clockwork, and attosecond physics over the past decades. Current benchmark systems are self-referenced femtosecond mode-locked lasers, but Kerr nonlinear dynamics in high-Q solid-state microresonators has recently demonstrated promising features as alternative platforms. The advance not only fosters studies of chip-scale frequency metrology but also extends the realm of optical frequency combs. We report the full stabilization of chip-scale optical frequency combs. The microcomb’s two degrees of freedom, one of the comb lines and the native 18-GHz comb spacing, are simultaneously phase-locked to known optical and microwave references. Active comb spacing stabilization improves long-term stability by six orders of magnitude, reaching a record instrument-limited residual instability of 3.6mHz/τ. Comparing 46 nitride frequency comb lines with a fiber laser frequency comb, we demonstrate the unprecedented microcomb tooth-to-tooth relative frequency uncertainty down to 50 mHz and 2.7 × 10−16, heralding novel solid-state applications in precision spectroscopy, coherent communications, and astronomical spectrography. PMID:27152341
Development of a Dynamic Lidar Uncertainty Framework
Newman, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Clifton, Andrew [WindForS; Bonin, Timothy [CIRES/NOAA ESRL; Choukulkar, Aditya [CIRES/NOAA ESRL; Brewer, W. Alan [NOAA ESRL; Delgado, Ruben [University of Maryland Baltimore County
2017-08-07
As wind turbine sizes increase and wind energy expands to more complex and remote sites, remote-sensing devices such as lidars are expected to play a key role in wind resource assessment and power performance testing. The switch to remote-sensing devices represents a paradigm shift in the way the wind industry typically obtains and interprets measurement data for wind energy. For example, the measurement techniques and sources of uncertainty for a remote-sensing device are vastly different from those associated with a cup anemometer on a meteorological tower. Current IEC standards for quantifying remote sensing device uncertainty for power performance testing consider uncertainty due to mounting, calibration, and classification of the remote sensing device, among other parameters. Values of the uncertainty are typically given as a function of the mean wind speed measured by a reference device and are generally fixed, leading to climatic uncertainty values that apply to the entire measurement campaign. However, real-world experience and a consideration of the fundamentals of the measurement process have shown that lidar performance is highly dependent on atmospheric conditions, such as wind shear, turbulence, and aerosol content. At present, these conditions are not directly incorporated into the estimated uncertainty of a lidar device. In this presentation, we describe the development of a new dynamic lidar uncertainty framework that adapts to current flow conditions and more accurately represents the actual uncertainty inherent in lidar measurements under different conditions. In this new framework, sources of uncertainty are identified for estimation of the line-of-sight wind speed and reconstruction of the three-dimensional wind field. These sources are then related to physical processes caused by the atmosphere and lidar operating conditions. The framework is applied to lidar data from a field measurement site to assess the ability of the framework to predict
Haleigh A. Boswell
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Analysis of blood alcohol concentration is a routine analysis performed in many forensic laboratories. This analysis commonly utilizes static headspace sampling, followed by gas chromatography combined with flame ionization detection (GC-FID. Studies have shown several “optimal” methods for instrumental operating conditions, which are intended to yield accurate and precise data. Given that different instruments, sampling methods, application specific columns and parameters are often utilized, it is much less common to find information on the robustness of these reported conditions. A major problem can arise when these “optimal” conditions may not also be robust, thus producing data with higher than desired uncertainty or potentially inaccurate results. The goal of this research was to incorporate the principles of quality by design (QBD in the adjustment and determination of BAC (blood alcohol concentration instrumental headspace parameters, thereby ensuring that minor instrumental variations, which occur as a matter of normal work, do not appreciably affect the final results of this analysis. This study discusses both the QBD principles as well as the results of the experiments, which allow for determination of more favorable instrumental headspace conditions. Additionally, method detection limits will also be reported in order to determine a reporting threshold and the degree of uncertainty at the common threshold value of 0.08 g/dL. Furthermore, the comparison of two internal standards, n-propanol and t-butanol, will be investigated. The study showed that an altered parameter of 85 °C headspace oven temperature and 15 psi headspace vial pressurization produces the lowest percent relative standard deviation of 1.3% when t-butanol is implemented as an internal standard, at least for one very common platform. The study also showed that an altered parameter of 100 °C headspace oven temperature and 15-psi headspace vial pressurization
Budiman, Harry; Mulyana, Muhammad Rizky; Zuas, Oman
2017-01-01
Uncertainty estimation for the gravimetric dilution of four calibration gas mixtures [carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and methane (CH4) in helium (He) Balance] have been carried out according to the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) of "Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement". The uncertainty of the composition of gas mixtures was evaluated to measure the quality, reliability, and comparability of the prepared calibration gas mixtures. The analytical process for the uncertainty estimation is comprised of four main stages such as specification of measurand, identification, quantification of the relevant uncertainty sources, and combination of the individual uncertainty sources. In this study, important uncertainty sources including weighing, gas cylinder, component gas, certified calibration gas mixture (CCGM) added, and purity of the He balance were examined to estimate the final uncertainty of composition of diluted calibration gas mixtures. The results shows that the uncertainties of gravimetric dilution of the four calibration gas mixtures (CO2, CO, and CH4 in He Balance) were found in the range of 5.974% - 7.256% that were expressed as %relative of expanded uncertainty at 95% of confidence level (k=2). The major contribution of sources uncertainty to the final uncertainty arose from the uncertainty related to the certified calibration gas mixture (CCGM) which was the uncertainty value stated in the CCGM certificate. The verification of calibration gas mixtures composition shows that the gravimetric values of calibration gas mixtures were consistent with the results of measurement using gas chromatography flame ionization detector equipped by methanizer.
Uncertainty in hydrological signatures
McMillan, Hilary; Westerberg, Ida
2015-04-01
Information that summarises the hydrological behaviour or flow regime of a catchment is essential for comparing responses of different catchments to understand catchment organisation and similarity, and for many other modelling and water-management applications. Such information types derived as an index value from observed data are known as hydrological signatures, and can include descriptors of high flows (e.g. mean annual flood), low flows (e.g. mean annual low flow, recession shape), the flow variability, flow duration curve, and runoff ratio. Because the hydrological signatures are calculated from observed data such as rainfall and flow records, they are affected by uncertainty in those data. Subjective choices in the method used to calculate the signatures create a further source of uncertainty. Uncertainties in the signatures may affect our ability to compare different locations, to detect changes, or to compare future water resource management scenarios. The aim of this study was to contribute to the hydrological community's awareness and knowledge of data uncertainty in hydrological signatures, including typical sources, magnitude and methods for its assessment. We proposed a generally applicable method to calculate these uncertainties based on Monte Carlo sampling and demonstrated it for a variety of commonly used signatures. The study was made for two data rich catchments, the 50 km2 Mahurangi catchment in New Zealand and the 135 km2 Brue catchment in the UK. For rainfall data the uncertainty sources included point measurement uncertainty, the number of gauges used in calculation of the catchment spatial average, and uncertainties relating to lack of quality control. For flow data the uncertainty sources included uncertainties in stage/discharge measurement and in the approximation of the true stage-discharge relation by a rating curve. The resulting uncertainties were compared across the different signatures and catchments, to quantify uncertainty
Fernandes, Elisabeth; Leite, Sandro Passos; David, Mariano Gazineu; Estrada, Carlos Frederico Alves; Almeida, Carlos Eduardo de, E-mail: beth.fernandes56@gmail.com [Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ/LCR), Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). Lab. de Ciencias Radiologicas
2014-07-01
This study shows all the relevant components to the calculation of the calibration uncertainty of gamma radiation area monitors performed by the Lab. Ciencias Radiologicas of UERJ . The uncertainty components will be related with their respective estimated values, details about the uncertainty components calculations of positioning and field homogeneity will be shown. There were obtained the values of 3,8 % and 5,8 % to the expanded uncertainty (k=2) for the dosimetry and for the area monitors calibration, respectively. (author)
无
2006-01-01
There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.
Zhao, Jingxin; Fan, Xiangli; Zhang, Qiang; Sun, Fangfei; Li, Xiaojian; Xiong, Chuan; Zhang, Chunli; Fan, Hongbin
2014-02-01
Overexpression of matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-3 and -13 can lead to the dedifferentiation of expanded chondrocytes. After implanting dedifferentiated cells for cartilage defect repair, graft failure may occur. Short hairpin RNA (shRNA) is a powerful genetic tool to reduce the expression of target genes. This study investigated the effects of chitosan-plasmid DNA (pDNA) nanoparticles encoding shRNA targeting MMP-3 and -13 on the dedifferentiation of expanded chondrocytes. The objective was to optimize the parameters of chitosan-pDNA formulation for achieving higher efficiency of pDNA delivery and gene silencing. The chitosan-pDNA nanoparticles were prepared using a complex coacervation process. Then the characteristics including size, shape, stability, and transfection efficiency were compared in different groups. The results indicated that chitosan of 800 kDa at N/P ratio of 4 and pH 7.0 was optimal to prepare chitosan-pDNA nanoparticles. These nanoparticles showed high DNA loading efficiency (95.8 ± 1.5%) and high gene transfection efficiency (24.5 ± 1.6%). After the expanded chondrocytes were transfected by chitosan-pDNA nanoparticles, MMP-3-610 and MMP-13-2024 groups showed greater suppression in mRNA and protein levels. The results indicated that chitosan-pDNA nanoparticles encoding shRNA targeting MMP-3 and -13 had great potential in silencing the dedifferentiation-related genes for regenerating prolonged and endurable cartilage.
Hukkerikar, Amol; Kalakul, Sawitree; Sarup, Bent
2012-01-01
The aim of this work is to develop group-3 contribution+ (GC+)method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI)) based 15 property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncertainties of estimated...
Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor); Bell, Thomas L.; Steiner, Matthias; Zhang, Yu; Wood, Eric F.
2002-01-01
The uncertainty of rainfall estimated from averages of discrete samples collected by a satellite is assessed using a multi-year radar data set covering a large portion of the United States. The sampling-related uncertainty of rainfall estimates is evaluated for all combinations of 100 km, 200 km, and 500 km space domains, 1 day, 5 day, and 30 day rainfall accumulations, and regular sampling time intervals of 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 8 h, and 12 h. These extensive analyses are combined to characterize the sampling uncertainty as a function of space and time domain, sampling frequency, and rainfall characteristics by means of a simple scaling law. Moreover, it is shown that both parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques of estimating the sampling uncertainty produce comparable results. Sampling uncertainty estimates, however, do depend on the choice of technique for obtaining them. They can also vary considerably from case to case, reflecting the great variability of natural rainfall, and should therefore be expressed in probabilistic terms. Rainfall calibration errors are shown to affect comparison of results obtained by studies based on data from different climate regions and/or observation platforms.
A New Framework for Quantifying Lidar Uncertainty
Newman, Jennifer, F.; Clifton, Andrew; Bonin, Timothy A.; Churchfield, Matthew J.
2017-03-24
As wind turbine sizes increase and wind energy expands to more complex and remote sites, remote sensing devices such as lidars are expected to play a key role in wind resource assessment and power performance testing. The switch to remote sensing devices represents a paradigm shift in the way the wind industry typically obtains and interprets measurement data for wind energy. For example, the measurement techniques and sources of uncertainty for a remote sensing device are vastly different from those associated with a cup anemometer on a meteorological tower. Current IEC standards discuss uncertainty due to mounting, calibration, and classification of the remote sensing device, among other parameters. Values of the uncertainty are typically given as a function of the mean wind speed measured by a reference device. However, real-world experience has shown that lidar performance is highly dependent on atmospheric conditions, such as wind shear, turbulence, and aerosol content. At present, these conditions are not directly incorporated into the estimated uncertainty of a lidar device. In this presentation, we propose the development of a new lidar uncertainty framework that adapts to current flow conditions and more accurately represents the actual uncertainty inherent in lidar measurements under different conditions. In this new framework, sources of uncertainty are identified for estimation of the line-of-sight wind speed and reconstruction of the three-dimensional wind field. These sources are then related to physical processes caused by the atmosphere and lidar operating conditions. The framework is applied to lidar data from an operational wind farm to assess the ability of the framework to predict errors in lidar-measured wind speed.
Garretson, J L; Wiseman, H M; Pope, D T; Pegg, D T [Centre for Quantum Dynamics, School of Science, Griffith University, Brisbane 4111 (Australia)
2004-06-01
A which-way measurement destroys the twin-slit interference pattern. Bohr argued that this can be attributed to the Heisenberg uncertainty relation: distinguishing between two slits a distance s apart gives the particle a random momentum transfer {rho} of order h/s. This was accepted for more than 60 years, until Scully, Englert and Walther (SEW) proposed a which-way scheme that, they claimed, entailed no momentum transfer. Storey, Tan, Collett and Walls (STCW), on the other hand, proved a theorem that, they claimed, showed that Bohr was right. This work reviews and extends a recent proposal (Wiseman 2003 Phys. Lett. A 311 285) to resolve the issue using a weak-valued probability distribution for momentum transfer, P{sub wv}({rho}). We show that P{sub wv}({rho}) must be nonzero for some {rho}: vertical bar {rho} vertical bar > h/6s. However, its moments can be identically zero, such as in the experiment proposed by SEW. This is possible because P{sub wv}({rho}) is not necessarily positive definite. Nevertheless, it is measurable experimentally in a way understandable to a classical physicist. The new results in this paper include the following. We introduce a new measure of spread for P{sub wv}({rho}): half the length of the unit-confidence interval. We conjecture that it is never less than h/4s, and find numerically that it is approximately h/1.59s for an idealized version of the SEW scheme with infinitely narrow slits. For this example, the moments of P{sub wv}({rho}), and of the momentum distributions, are undefined unless a process of apodization is used. However, we show that by considering successively smoother initial wavefunctions, successively more moments of both P{sub wv}({rho}) and the momentum distributions become defined. For this example the moments of P{sub wv}({rho}) are zero, and these moments are equal to the changes in the moments of the momentum distribution. We prove that this relation also holds for schemes in which the moments of P{sub wv
Garretson, J. L.; Wiseman, H. M.; Pope, D. T.; Pegg, D. T.
2004-06-01
A which-way measurement destroys the twin-slit interference pattern. Bohr argued that this can be attributed to the Heisenberg uncertainty relation: distinguishing between two slits a distance s apart gives the particle a random momentum transfer \\wp of order h/s. This was accepted for more than 60 years, until Scully, Englert and Walther (SEW) proposed a which-way scheme that, they claimed, entailed no momentum transfer. Storey, Tan, Collett and Walls (STCW), on the other hand, proved a theorem that, they claimed, showed that Bohr was right. This work reviews and extends a recent proposal (Wiseman 2003 Phys. Lett. A 311 285) to resolve the issue using a weak-valued probability distribution for momentum transfer, P_{\\mathrm {wv}}(\\wp) . We show that P_{\\mathrm {wv}}(\\wp) must be nonzero for some \\wp: |\\wp |>h/6s . However, its moments can be identically zero, such as in the experiment proposed by SEW. This is possible because P_{\\mathrm {wv}}(\\wp) is not necessarily positive definite. Nevertheless, it is measurable experimentally in a way understandable to a classical physicist. The new results in this paper include the following. We introduce a new measure of spread for P_{\\mathrm {wv}}(\\wp) : half the length of the unit-confidence interval. We conjecture that it is never less than h/4s, and find numerically that it is approximately h/1.59s for an idealized version of the SEW scheme with infinitely narrow slits. For this example, the moments of P_{\\mathrm {wv}}(\\wp) , and of the momentum distributions, are undefined unless a process of apodization is used. However, we show that by considering successively smoother initial wavefunctions, successively more moments of both P_{\\mathrm {wv}}(\\wp) and the momentum distributions become defined. For this example the moments of P_{\\mathrm {wv}}(\\wp) are zero, and these moments are equal to the changes in the moments of the momentum distribution. We prove that this relation also holds for schemes in which
Arce-Johnson Patricio
2008-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The MYB superfamily constitutes the most abundant group of transcription factors described in plants. Members control processes such as epidermal cell differentiation, stomatal aperture, flavonoid synthesis, cold and drought tolerance and pathogen resistance. No genome-wide characterization of this family has been conducted in a woody species such as grapevine. In addition, previous analysis of the recently released grape genome sequence suggested expansion events of several gene families involved in wine quality. Results We describe and classify 108 members of the grape R2R3 MYB gene subfamily in terms of their genomic gene structures and similarity to their putative Arabidopsis thaliana orthologues. Seven gene models were derived and analyzed in terms of gene expression and their DNA binding domain structures. Despite low overall sequence homology in the C-terminus of all proteins, even in those with similar functions across Arabidopsis and Vitis, highly conserved motif sequences and exon lengths were found. The grape epidermal cell fate clade is expanded when compared with the Arabidopsis and rice MYB subfamilies. Two anthocyanin MYBA related clusters were identified in chromosomes 2 and 14, one of which includes the previously described grape colour locus. Tannin related loci were also detected with eight candidate homologues in chromosomes 4, 9 and 11. Conclusion This genome wide transcription factor analysis in Vitis suggests that clade-specific grape R2R3 MYB genes are expanded while other MYB genes could be well conserved compared to Arabidopsis. MYB gene abundance, homology and orientation within particular loci also suggests that expanded MYB clades conferring quality attributes of grapes and wines, such as colour and astringency, could possess redundant, overlapping and cooperative functions.
Measurement uncertainty and probability
Willink, Robin
2013-01-01
A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.
Liu, Baoding
2015-01-01
When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...
Johansen, Geir
2014-01-01
Studies on sociology and music education are important because they can enlighten how music education relates to social change. By studying how music education changes and is changed by society we enable ourselves to describe how it can contribute to the understanding of social change generally. This may lay the ground for us in contributing to…
Johansen, Geir
2014-01-01
Studies on sociology and music education are important because they can enlighten how music education relates to social change. By studying how music education changes and is changed by society we enable ourselves to describe how it can contribute to the understanding of social change generally. This may lay the ground for us in contributing to…
47 CFR 64.1401 - Expanded interconnection.
2010-10-01
... 47 Telecommunication 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Expanded interconnection. 64.1401 Section 64...) MISCELLANEOUS RULES RELATING TO COMMON CARRIERS Expanded Interconnection § 64.1401 Expanded interconnection. (a... 69, subpart G of this chapter, shall offer expanded interconnection for interstate special...
Pan, Ying; Tao, Qianshan; Wang, Huiping; Xiong, Shudao; Zhang, Rui; Chen, Tianping; Tao, Lili; Zhai, Zhimin
2014-01-01
Regulatory T cells (Tregs) are potent immunosuppressive cells and essential for inducing immune tolerance. Recent studies have reported that Tregs and Tregs related cytokines can inhibit the antitumor activity of cytokine-induced killer (CIK) cells, but dendritic cells co-cultured CIK (DC-CIK) cells can be used for induction of a specific immune response by blocking of Tregs and TGF-β, IL-10. As a novel identified cytokine, IL-35 is specially produced by Tregs and plays an essential role in immune regulation. However, it remains unknown whether IL-35 roles in tumor immunotherapy mediated by CIK and DC-CIK cells. In this study, we cultured CIK and DC-CIK cells from the same healthy adult samples, and investigated their phenotype, proliferation, cytotoxic activity against leukemia cell lines K562 and NB4 by FCM and CCK-8, measured IL-35, TGF-β and IL-10 protein by ELISA, detected Foxp3, IL-35 and IL-35 receptor mRNA by Real-time PCR, respectively. We found Tregs and IL-35 concomitantly expanded by a time-dependent way during the generation of CIK cells, but DC significantly down-regulated the expression of them and simultaneously up-regulated the proliferation ability as well as cytotoxic activity of CIK cells against leukemia cell lines. Therefore, our data suggested that DC decreased concomitant expanded Tregs and Tregs related IL-35 in CIK cells and might contribute to improve their cytotoxicity against leukemia cells in vitro.
Emily A Burger
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Increasingly, countries have introduced female vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV, causally linked to several cancers and genital warts, but few have recommended vaccination of boys. Declining vaccine prices and strong evidence of vaccine impact on reducing HPV-related conditions in both women and men prompt countries to reevaluate whether HPV vaccination of boys is warranted. METHODS: A previously-published dynamic model of HPV transmission was empirically calibrated to Norway. Reductions in the incidence of HPV, including both direct and indirect benefits, were applied to a natural history model of cervical cancer, and to incidence-based models for other non-cervical HPV-related diseases. We calculated the health outcomes and costs of the different HPV-related conditions under a gender-neutral vaccination program compared to a female-only program. RESULTS: Vaccine price had a decisive impact on results. For example, assuming 71% coverage, high vaccine efficacy and a reasonable vaccine tender price of $75 per dose, we found vaccinating both girls and boys fell below a commonly cited cost-effectiveness threshold in Norway ($83,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY gained when including vaccine benefit for all HPV-related diseases. However, at the current market price, including boys would not be considered 'good value for money.' For settings with a lower cost-effectiveness threshold ($30,000/QALY, it would not be considered cost-effective to expand the current program to include boys, unless the vaccine price was less than $36/dose. Increasing vaccination coverage to 90% among girls was more effective and less costly than the benefits achieved by vaccinating both genders with 71% coverage. CONCLUSIONS: At the anticipated tender price, expanding the HPV vaccination program to boys may be cost-effective and may warrant a change in the current female-only vaccination policy in Norway. However, increasing coverage in girls is
Arroyo Mina, José Santiago; Daniel A. Revollo Fernández; Aguilar Ibarra, Alonso; Georgantzis, Nikolaos
2016-01-01
This paper presents the results of economic experiments run among fishermen from the Mexican and Colombian Pacific. The experimental design aims at studying behavior under uncertainty concerning the possible effects of climate change on fisheries. We find that subjects’ risk-aversion diminishes the level of catches and changes fishing practices (e.g. adopting marine reserves), provided that fishermen have ex ante information on possible climatic consequences. Furthermore, social preferences (...
Hukkerikar, Amol Shivajirao; Kalakul, Sawitree; Sarup, Bent; Young, Douglas M; Sin, Gürkan; Gani, Rafiqul
2012-11-26
The aim of this work is to develop group-contribution(+) (GC(+)) method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI) method) based property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncertainties of estimated property values. For this purpose, a systematic methodology for property modeling and uncertainty analysis is used. The methodology includes a parameter estimation step to determine parameters of property models and an uncertainty analysis step to establish statistical information about the quality of parameter estimation, such as the parameter covariance, the standard errors in predicted properties, and the confidence intervals. For parameter estimation, large data sets of experimentally measured property values of a wide range of chemicals (hydrocarbons, oxygenated chemicals, nitrogenated chemicals, poly functional chemicals, etc.) taken from the database of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and from the database of USEtox is used. For property modeling and uncertainty analysis, the Marrero and Gani GC method and atom connectivity index method have been considered. In total, 22 environment-related properties, which include the fathead minnow 96-h LC(50), Daphnia magna 48-h LC(50), oral rat LD(50), aqueous solubility, bioconcentration factor, permissible exposure limit (OSHA-TWA), photochemical oxidation potential, global warming potential, ozone depletion potential, acidification potential, emission to urban air (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental rural air (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental fresh water (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental seawater (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental natural soil (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), and emission to continental agricultural soil (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) have been modeled and analyzed. The application
Han, Eunyoung; Yang, Wonkyung; Lee, Sooyeun; Kim, Eunmi; In, Sangwhan; Choi, Hwakyung; Lee, Sangki; Chung, Heesun; Song, Joon Myong
2011-03-20
The quantitative analysis of 11-nor-D(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol-9-carboxylic acid (THCCOOH) in hair requires a sensitive method to detect a low-pg level. Before applying the method to real hair samples, the method was validated; in this study, we examined the uncertainty obtained from around the cut-off level of THCCOOH in hair. We calculated the measurement uncertainty (MU) of THCCOOH in hair as follows: specification of the measurand, identification of parameters using "cause and effect" diagrams, quantification of the uncertainty contributions using three factors, the uncertainty of weighing the hair sample, the uncertainty from calibrators and the calibration curve, and the uncertainty of the method precision. Finally, we calculated the degrees of freedom and the expanded uncertainty (EU). The concentration of THCCOOH in the hair sample with its EU was (0.60 ± 0.1) × 10(-4)ng/mg. The relative uncertainty percent for the measurand 0.60 × 10(-4)ng was 9.13%. In this study, we also selected different concentrations of THCCOOH in real hair samples and then calculated the EU, the relative standard uncertainty (RSU) of the concentration of THCCOOH in the test sample [u(r)(c0)], the relative uncertainty percent, and the effective degree of freedom (v(eff)). When the concentrations of THCCOOH approached the cut-off level, u(r)(c0) and the relative uncertainty percent increased but absolute EU and v(eff) decreased.
Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen
This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...
Uncertainty in magnetic activity indices
2008-01-01
Magnetic activity indices are widely used in theoretical studies of solar-terrestrial coupling and space weather prediction. However, the indices suffer from various uncertainties, which limit their application and even mislead to incorrect conclu-sion. In this paper we analyze three most popular indices, Kp, AE and Dst. Three categories of uncertainties in magnetic indices are discussed: "data uncertainty" originating from inadequate data processing, "station uncertainty" caused by in-complete station covering, and "physical uncertainty" stemming from unclear physical mechanism. A comparison between magnetic disturbances and related indices indicate that the residual Sq will cause an uncertainty of 1―2 in K meas-urement, the uncertainty in saturated AE is as much as 50%, and the uncertainty in Dst index caused by the partial ring currents is about a half of the partial ring cur-rent.
Uncertainty in magnetic activity indices
XU WenYao
2008-01-01
Magnetic activity indices are widely used in theoretical studies of solar-terrestrial coupling and space weather prediction. However, the indices suffer from various uncertainties, which limit their application and even mislead to incorrect conclu-sion. In this paper we analyze three most popular indices, Kp, AE and Dst. Three categories of uncertainties in magnetic indices are discussed: "data uncertainty" originating from inadequate data processing, "station uncertainty" caused by in-complete station covering, and "physical uncertainty" stemming from unclear physical mechanism. A comparison between magnetic disturbances and related indices indicate that the residual Sq will cause an uncertainty of 1-2 in K meas-urement, the uncertainty in saturated AE is as much as 50%, and the uncertainty in Dst index caused by the partial ring currents is about a half of the partial ring cur-rent.
Generalized uncertainty principles
Machluf, Ronny
2008-01-01
The phenomenon in the essence of classical uncertainty principles is well known since the thirties of the last century. We introduce a new phenomenon which is in the essence of a new notion that we introduce: "Generalized Uncertainty Principles". We show the relation between classical uncertainty principles and generalized uncertainty principles. We generalized "Landau-Pollak-Slepian" uncertainty principle. Our generalization relates the following two quantities and two scaling parameters: 1) The weighted time spreading $\\int_{-\\infty}^\\infty |f(x)|^2w_1(x)dx$, ($w_1(x)$ is a non-negative function). 2) The weighted frequency spreading $\\int_{-\\infty}^\\infty |\\hat{f}(\\omega)|^2w_2(\\omega)d\\omega$. 3) The time weight scale $a$, ${w_1}_a(x)=w_1(xa^{-1})$ and 4) The frequency weight scale $b$, ${w_2}_b(\\omega)=w_2(\\omega b^{-1})$. "Generalized Uncertainty Principle" is an inequality that summarizes the constraints on the relations between the two spreading quantities and two scaling parameters. For any two reason...
Heydorn, Kaj; Anglov, Thomas
2002-01-01
Methods recommended by the International Standardization Organisation and Eurachem are not satisfactory for the correct estimation of calibration uncertainty. A novel approach is introduced and tested on actual calibration data for the determination of Pb by ICP-AES. The improved calibration unce...
Grazing incidence beam expander
Akkapeddi, P.R.; Glenn, P.; Fuschetto, A.; Appert, Q.; Viswanathan, V.K.
1985-01-01
A Grazing Incidence Beam Expander (GIBE) telescope is being designed and fabricated to be used as an equivalent end mirror in a long laser resonator cavity. The design requirements for this GIBE flow down from a generic Free Electron Laser (FEL) resonator. The nature of the FEL gain volume (a thin, pencil-like, on-axis region) dictates that the output beam be very small. Such a thin beam with the high power levels characteristic of FELs would have to travel perhaps hundreds of meters or more before expanding enough to allow reflection from cooled mirrors. A GIBE, on the other hand, would allow placing these optics closer to the gain region and thus reduces the cavity lengths substantially. Results are presented relating to optical and mechanical design, alignment sensitivity analysis, radius of curvature analysis, laser cavity stability analysis of a linear stable concentric laser cavity with a GIBE. Fabrication details of the GIBE are also given.
The interplay between uncertainty monitoring and working memory: Can metacognition become automatic?
Coutinho, Mariana V C; Redford, Joshua S; Church, Barbara A; Zakrzewski, Alexandria C; Couchman, Justin J; Smith, J David
2015-10-01
The uncertainty response has grounded the study of metacognition in nonhuman animals. Recent research has explored the processes supporting uncertainty monitoring in monkeys. It has revealed that uncertainty responding, in contrast to perceptual responding, depends on significant working memory resources. The aim of the present study was to expand this research by examining whether uncertainty monitoring is also working memory demanding in humans. To explore this issue, human participants were tested with or without a cognitive load on a psychophysical discrimination task that included either an uncertainty response (allowing the participant to decline difficult trials) or a middle-perceptual response (labeling the same intermediate trial levels). The results demonstrated that cognitive load reduced uncertainty responding, but increased middle responding. However, this dissociation between uncertainty and middle responding was only observed when participants either lacked training or had very little training with the uncertainty response. If more training was provided, the effect of load was small. These results suggest that uncertainty responding is resource demanding, but with sufficient training, human participants can respond to uncertainty either by using minimal working memory resources or by effectively sharing resources. These results are discussed in relation to the literature on animal and human metacognition.
García-Arranz, Mariano; Herreros, Maria Dolores; González-Gómez, Carolina; de la Quintana, Paloma; Guadalajara, Héctor; Georgiev-Hristov, Tihomir; Trébol, Jacobo; Garcia-Olmo, Damián
2016-11-01
: The aim of this clinical trial was to determine the safety and feasibility of expanded allogeneic adipose-derived stem cells to treat Crohn's-related rectovaginal fistula (CRRVF). We designed a phase I-II clinical trial (https://ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00999115) to treat 10 patients with CRRVF. Patients receiving biological therapy during follow-up were excluded. Curettage was performed, and a vaginal or rectal flap was added if the surgeon considered it necessary. The therapeutic protocol included intralesional injection of 20 million stem cells in the vaginal walls (submucosal area) and fistula tract. Healing was evaluated 12 weeks later. If the fistula had not healed, a second dose of 40 million stem cells was administered. Patient follow-up was 52 weeks from last cell injection. Healing was defined as re-epithelialization of both vaginal and rectal sides and absence of vaginal drainage. Cytokines and immunological blood tests were monitored. Serious adverse events or rejection issues were not observed. Five patients were excluded because biologic drugs were required to treat a Crohn's disease flare-up during follow-up. Cytokine profiles and immunotoxicity assays showed no statistically significant alterations. Sixty percent of the nonexcluded patients achieved a complete healing. Expanded allogeneic adipose-derived stem-cell injection is a safe and feasible therapy for treating CRRVF, and the healing success rate seems promising (60%). The results of this trial encourage further exploration into this therapy. This may be the first publication in which allogeneic stem cells to treat rectovaginal fistula in Crohn´s disease seem to be a feasible and safe treatment. Additional studies are necessary to confirm the efficacy profile of the allogeneic stem cells strategy in a controlled design. ©AlphaMed Press.
Model Uncertainty for Bilinear Hysteric Systems
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle
In structural reliability analysis at least three types of uncertainty must be considered, namely physical uncertainty, statistical uncertainty, and model uncertainty (see e.g. Thoft-Christensen & Baker [1]). The physical uncertainty is usually modelled by a number of basic variables by predictive...... density functions, Veneziano [2]. In general, model uncertainty is the uncertainty connected with mathematical modelling of the physical reality. When structural reliability analysis is related to the concept of a failure surface (or limit state surface) in the n-dimension basic variable space then model...... uncertainty is at least due to the neglected variables, the modelling of the failure surface and the computational technique used....
Maneva, Y G; Viñas, A
2014-01-01
We perform 2.5D hybrid simulations to investigate the origin and evolution of relative drift speeds between protons and $\\alpha$ particles in the collisionless turbulent low-$\\beta$ solar wind plasma. We study the generation of differential streaming by wave-particle interactions and absorption of turbulent wave spectra. Next we focus on the role of the relative drifts for the turbulent heating and acceleration of ions in the collisionless fast solar wind streams. The energy source is given by an initial broad-band spectrum of parallel propagating Alfv\\'en-cyclotron waves, which co-exists with the plasma and is self-consistently coupled to the perpendicular ion bulk velocities. We include the effect of a gradual solar wind expansion, which cools and decelerates the minor ions. This paper for the first time considers the combined effect of self-consistently initialized dispersive turbulent Alfv\\'enic spectra with differentially streaming protons and $\\alpha$ particles in the expanding solar wind outflows withi...
Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen
This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models...... the high rate of exit seen in the first years of exporting. Finally, when faced with multiple countries in which to export, some firms will choose to sequentially export in order to slowly learn more about its chances for success in untested markets....
Saviano, Alessandro Morais; Francisco, Fabiane Lacerda; Ostronoff, Celina Silva; Lourenço, Felipe Rebello
2015-01-01
The aim of this study was to develop, optimize, and validate a microplate bioassay for relative potency determination of linezolid in pharmaceutical samples using quality-by-design and design space approaches. In addition, a procedure is described for estimating relative potency uncertainty based on microbiological response variability. The influence of culture media composition was studied using a factorial design and a central composite design was adopted to study the influence of inoculum proportion and triphenyltetrazolium chloride in microbial growth. The microplate bioassay was optimized regarding the responses of low, medium, and high doses of linezolid, negative and positive controls, and the slope, intercept, and correlation coefficient of dose-response curves. According to optimization results, design space ranges were established using: (a) low (1.0 μg/mL), medium (2.0 μg/mL), and high (4.0 μg/mL) doses of pharmaceutical samples and linezolid chemical reference substance; (b) Staphylococcus aureus ATCC 653 in an inoculum proportion of 10%; (c) antibiotic No. 3 culture medium pH 7.0±0.1; (d) 6 h incubation at 37.0±0.1ºC; and (e) addition of 50 μL of 0.5% (w/v) triphenyltetrazolium chloride solution. The microplate bioassay was linear (r2=0.992), specific, precise (repeatability RSD=2.3% and intermediate precision RSD=4.3%), accurate (mean recovery=101.4%), and robust. The overall measurement uncertainty was reasonable considering the increased variability inherent in microbiological response. Final uncertainty was comparable with those obtained with other microbiological assays, as well as chemical methods.
Uncertainty in Life Cycle Assessment of Nanomaterials
Seager, T. P.; Linkov, I.
Despite concerns regarding environmental fate and toxicology, engineered nanostructured material manufacturing is expanding at an increasingly rapid pace. In particular, the unique properties of single walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNT) have made them attractive in many areas, including high-tech power applications such as experimental batteries, fuel cells or electrical wiring. The intensity of research interest in SWCNT has raised questions regarding the life cycle environmental impact of nanotechnologies, including assessment of: worker and consumer safety, greenhouse gas emissions, toxicological risks associated with production or product emissions and the disposition of nanoproducts at end of life. However, development of appropriate nanotechnology assessment tools has lagged progress in the nanotechnologies themselves. In particular, current approaches to life cycle assessment (LCA) — originally developed for application in mature manufacturing industries such as automobiles and chemicals — suffer from several shortcomings that make applicability to nanotechnologies problematic. Among these are uncertainties related to the variability of material properties, toxicity and risk, technology performance in the use phase, nanomaterial degradation and change during the product life cycle and the impact assessment stage of LCA. This chapter expounds upon the unique challenges presented by nanomaterials in general, specifies sources of uncertainty and variability in LCA of SWCNT for use in electric and hybrid vehicle batteries and makes recommendations for modeling and decision-making using LCA in a multi-criteria decision analysis framework under conditions of high uncertainty.1
范梦璇
2015-01-01
<正>Employ change-related uncertainty is a condition that under current continually changing business environment,the organizations also have to change,the change include strategic direction,structure and staffing levels to help company to keep competitive(Armenakis&Bedeian,1999);However;these
Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Levitt, TS; Lemmer, JF; Shachter, RD
1990-01-01
Clearly illustrated in this volume is the current relationship between Uncertainty and AI.It has been said that research in AI revolves around five basic questions asked relative to some particular domain: What knowledge is required? How can this knowledge be acquired? How can it be represented in a system? How should this knowledge be manipulated in order to provide intelligent behavior? How can the behavior be explained? In this volume, all of these questions are addressed. From the perspective of the relationship of uncertainty to the basic questions of AI, the book divides naturally i
Xu, B.; Plante, A. F.; Johnson, A. H.; Pan, Y.
2014-12-01
Estimating forest soil carbon and nitrogen (CN) is critical to understanding ecosystem responses to changing climate, disturbance and forest management practices. Most of the uncertainty in soil CN cycling is associated with the difficulty in characterizing soil properties in field sampling because forest soils can be rocky, inaccessible and spatially heterogeneous. A composite coring technique is broadly applied as the standard FIA soil sampling protocol. However, the accuracy of this method might be limited by soil compaction, rock obstruction and plot selection problems during sampling. In contrast, the quantitative soil pit sampling method may avoid these problems and provides direct measurements of soil mass, rock volume and CN concentration representative of a larger ground surface area. In this study, the two sampling methods were applied in 60 forest plots, randomly located in three research areas in the Delaware River Basin in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region. In each of the plots, one quantitative soil pit was excavated and three soil cores were collected. Our results show that average soil bulk density in the top 20 cm mineral soil measured from the soil cores was consistently lower than bulk density measured by soil pits. However, the volume percentage of coarse fragments measured by the core method was also significantly lower than the pit method. Conversely, CN concentrations were greater in core samples compared to pit samples. The resulting soil carbon content (0-20 cm) was estimated to be 4.1 ± 0.4 kg m-2 in the core method compared to 4.5 ± 0.4 kg m-2 in the pit method. Lower bulk density but higher CN concentration and lower coarse fragments content from the cores have offset each other, resulting in no significant differences in CN content from the soil pit method. Deeper soil (20-40 cm), which is not accessible in the core method, accounted for 29% of the total soil carbon stock (0-40 cm) in the pit method. Our results suggest that, although soil
Interpreting uncertainty terms.
Holtgraves, Thomas
2014-08-01
Uncertainty terms (e.g., some, possible, good, etc.) are words that do not have a fixed referent and hence are relatively ambiguous. A model is proposed that specifies how, from the hearer's perspective, recognition of facework as a potential motive for the use of an uncertainty term results in a calibration of the intended meaning of that term. Four experiments are reported that examine the impact of face threat, and the variables that affect it (e.g., power), on the manner in which a variety of uncertainty terms (probability terms, quantifiers, frequency terms, etc.) are interpreted. Overall, the results demonstrate that increased face threat in a situation will result in a more negative interpretation of an utterance containing an uncertainty term. That the interpretation of so many different types of uncertainty terms is affected in the same way suggests the operation of a fundamental principle of language use, one with important implications for the communication of risk, subjective experience, and so on.
Fergus, Thomas A; Wu, Kevin D
2013-10-01
Although it is understood that assessment tools require evaluation using diverse samples, such evaluations are relatively rare. There are obstacles to such work, but it remains important to pursue psychometric data in broad samples. As such, we evaluated measurement invariance and population heterogeneity of two versions of a widely used measure in the anxiety literature--the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS)--among self-identifying White (N = 1,185) and Black (N = 301) students. Data from multiple-groups confirmatory factor analysis supported the equivalence of the equal form and factor loadings of both IUS versions in White and Black respondents. However, specific IUS items functioned differently in the two groups, with more IUS items appearing biased in the full-length relative to the short-form version. Correlations between IUS factors and worry were equivalent among White and Black respondents. We discuss the implications of these results for future research.
On Uncertainties in Successive Measurements
Distler, Jacques
2012-01-01
When you measure an observable, A, in Quantum Mechanics, the state of the system changes. This, in turn, affects the quantum-mechanical uncertainty in some non-commuting observable, B. The standard Uncertainty Relation puts a lower bound on the uncertainty of B in the initial state. What is relevant for a subsequent measurement of B, however, is the uncertainty of B in the post-measurement state. We make some remarks on the latter problem, both in the case where A has a pure point spectrum and in the case where A has a continuous spectrum.
Network planning under uncertainties
Ho, Kwok Shing; Cheung, Kwok Wai
2008-11-01
One of the main focuses for network planning is on the optimization of network resources required to build a network under certain traffic demand projection. Traditionally, the inputs to this type of network planning problems are treated as deterministic. In reality, the varying traffic requirements and fluctuations in network resources can cause uncertainties in the decision models. The failure to include the uncertainties in the network design process can severely affect the feasibility and economics of the network. Therefore, it is essential to find a solution that can be insensitive to the uncertain conditions during the network planning process. As early as in the 1960's, a network planning problem with varying traffic requirements over time had been studied. Up to now, this kind of network planning problems is still being active researched, especially for the VPN network design. Another kind of network planning problems under uncertainties that has been studied actively in the past decade addresses the fluctuations in network resources. One such hotly pursued research topic is survivable network planning. It considers the design of a network under uncertainties brought by the fluctuations in topology to meet the requirement that the network remains intact up to a certain number of faults occurring anywhere in the network. Recently, the authors proposed a new planning methodology called Generalized Survivable Network that tackles the network design problem under both varying traffic requirements and fluctuations of topology. Although all the above network planning problems handle various kinds of uncertainties, it is hard to find a generic framework under more general uncertainty conditions that allows a more systematic way to solve the problems. With a unified framework, the seemingly diverse models and algorithms can be intimately related and possibly more insights and improvements can be brought out for solving the problem. This motivates us to seek a
An earlier paper (Hattis et al., 2003) developed a quantitative likelihood-based statistical analysis of the differences in apparent sensitivity of rodents to mutagenic carcinogens across three life stages (fetal, birth-weaning, and weaning-60 days) relative to exposures in adult...
Valentina Fabi
2016-02-01
Full Text Available The interactions between building occupants and control systems have a high influence on energy consumption and on indoor environmental quality. In the perspective of a future of “nearly-zero” energy buildings, it is crucial to analyse the energy-related interactions deeply to predict realistic energy use during the design stage. Since the reaction to thermal, acoustic, or visual stimuli is not the same for every human being, monitoring the behaviour inside buildings is an essential step to assert differences in energy consumption related to different interactions. Reliable information concerning occupants’ behaviours in a building could contribute to a better evaluation of building energy performances and design robustness, as well as supporting the development of occupants’ education to energy awareness. The present literature survey enlarges our understanding of which environmental conditions influence occupants’ manual controlling of the system in offices and by consequence the energy consumption. The purpose of this study was to investigate the possible drivers for light-switching to model occupant behaviour in office buildings. The probability of switching lighting systems on or off was related to the occupancy and differentiated for arrival, intermediate, and departure periods. The switching probability has been reported to be higher during the entering or the leaving time in relation to contextual variables. In the analysis of switch-on actions, users were often clustered between those who take daylight level into account and switch on lights only if necessary and people who totally disregard the natural lighting. This underlines the importance of how individuality is at the base of the definition of the different types of users.
Uncertainties and Solutions Related to Use of WRB (2007) in the Boreo-nemoral zone, Case of Latvia
Kasparinskis, Raimonds; Nikodemus, Olgerts; Rolavs, Nauris
2014-05-01
Relatively high diversity of soils groups according to the WRB (2007) classification is observed in forest ecosystems in the boreo-nemoral zone in Latvia. This is due to the geological genesis of area and environmental conditions (Kasparinskis, Nikodemus, 2012), as well as historical land use and management (Nikodemus et al., 2013). Due to the relatively young soils, Albic, Spodic and Cambic horizons are relatively weakly expressed in many cases. Relatively well developed Albic horizons occur in sandy forest soils, but unusually well expressed Spodic features are observed. In some cases there is a Cambic horizon, however location of Cambisols in the WRB (2007) soil classification sequence does not provide an opportunity to classify these soils as Cambisols, but they are classified as Arenosols. This sequence does not reflect the logical sheme of soil development, and therefore raises the question about location of Podzols, Arenosols and Cambisols in the sequence of WRB (2007) soil classification. Soils with two parent materials (abrupt textural change) are relatively common in Latvia, where conceptually on the small scale mapping results in classification as the soil group Planosols, but in many cases there is occurrence of Fluvic materials, as parent material in the upper part of the soil profile is formed by Baltic Ice lake sandy sediments - this leads to question about the location of Fluvisols and Planosols in the sequence of the WRB (2007) soil classification. Soil research has found cases, where a relatively well developed Spodic horizon was established as the result of ground water table depth in areas of abrupt textural change. In this case the profile corresponds to the soil group of Podzols, however in some cases - Gleysols not Planosols due to a high ground water table. Therefore there is a need for discussion also about the location of Podzols and Planosols in the sequence of the WRB (2007) soil classification. The above mentioned questions raise
Sklerov, Jason H; Couper, Fiona J
2011-09-01
An estimate was made of the measurement uncertainty for blood ethanol testing by headspace gas chromatography. While uncertainty often focuses on compliance to a single threshold level (0.08 g/100 mL), the existence of multiple thresholds, related to enhanced sentencing, subject age, or commercial vehicle licensure, necessitate the use of an estimate with validity across multiple specification levels. The uncertainty sources, in order of decreasing magnitude, were method reproducibility, linear calibration, recovery, calibrator preparation, reference material, and sample preparation. A large set of reproducibility data was evaluated (n = 15,433) in order to encompass measurement variability across multiple conditions, operators, instruments, concentrations and timeframes. The relative, combined standard uncertainty was calculated as ±2.7%, with an expanded uncertainty of ±8.2% (99.7% level of confidence, k = 3). Bias was separately evaluated through a recovery study using standard reference material from a national metrology institute. The uncertainty estimate was verified through the use of proficiency test (PT) results. Assigned values for PT results and their associated uncertainties were calculated as robust means (x*) and standard deviations (s*) of participant values. Performance scores demonstrated that the uncertainty estimate was appropriate across the full range of PT concentrations (0.010-0.370 g/100 mL). The use of PT data as an empirical estimate of uncertainty was not examined. Until providers of blood ethanol PT samples include details on how an assigned value is obtained along with its uncertainty and traceability, the use of PT data should be restricted to the role of verification of uncertainty estimates.
Lupu, Sergiu; Gazit, Doron
2015-01-01
The large nucleon-nucleon scattering length, and the isospin approximate symmetry, are low energy properties of quantum chromodynamics (QCD). These entail correlations in the binding energies of light nuclei, e.g., the A=3 iso-multiplet, and Tjon's correlation between the binding energy of three and four body nuclei. Using a new representation of these, we establish that they translate into a correlation between different short-range contributions to three body forces in chiral effective field theory of low-energy nuclear physics. We demonstrate that these correlations should be taken into account in order to avoid fine-tuning in the calibration of three body forces. We relate this to the role of correlations in uncertainty quantification of non-renormalizable effective field theories of the nuclear regime. In addition, we show that correlations can be useful in assessing the importance of forces induced by renormalization group (RG) transformations. We give numerical evidence that such RG transformations can...
Uncertainty in Air Quality Modeling.
Fox, Douglas G.
1984-01-01
Under the direction of the AMS Steering Committee for the EPA Cooperative Agreement on Air Quality Modeling, a small group of scientists convened to consider the question of uncertainty in air quality modeling. Because the group was particularly concerned with the regulatory use of models, its discussion focused on modeling tall stack, point source emissions.The group agreed that air quality model results should be viewed as containing both reducible error and inherent uncertainty. Reducible error results from improper or inadequate meteorological and air quality data inputs, and from inadequacies in the models. Inherent uncertainty results from the basic stochastic nature of the turbulent atmospheric motions that are responsible for transport and diffusion of released materials. Modelers should acknowledge that all their predictions to date contain some associated uncertainty and strive also to quantify uncertainty.How can the uncertainty be quantified? There was no consensus from the group as to precisely how uncertainty should be calculated. One subgroup, which addressed statistical procedures, suggested that uncertainty information could be obtained from comparisons of observations and predictions. Following recommendations from a previous AMS workshop on performance evaluation (Fox. 1981), the subgroup suggested construction of probability distribution functions from the differences between observations and predictions. Further, they recommended that relatively new computer-intensive statistical procedures be considered to improve the quality of uncertainty estimates for the extreme value statistics of interest in regulatory applications.A second subgroup, which addressed the basic nature of uncertainty in a stochastic system, also recommended that uncertainty be quantified by consideration of the differences between observations and predictions. They suggested that the average of the difference squared was appropriate to isolate the inherent uncertainty that
What Expands in an Expanding Universe?
Pacheco, José A De Freitas
2015-01-01
In the present investigation, the possible effects of the expansion of the Universe on systems bonded either by gravitational or electromagnetic forces, are reconsidered. It will be shown that the acceleration (positive or negative) of the expanding background, is the determinant factor affecting planetary orbits and atomic sizes. In the presently accepted cosmology (ΛCDM) all bonded systems are expanding at a decreasing rate that tends to be zero as the universe enters in a de Sitter phase. It is worth mentioning that the estimated expansion rates are rather small and they can be neglected for all practical purposes.
What Expands in an Expanding Universe?
JOSÉ A. DE FREITAS PACHECO
2015-12-01
Full Text Available ABSTRACT In the present investigation, the possible effects of the expansion of the Universe on systems bonded either by gravitational or electromagnetic forces, are reconsidered. It will be shown that the acceleration (positive or negative of the expanding background, is the determinant factor affecting planetary orbits and atomic sizes. In the presently accepted cosmology (ΛCDM all bonded systems are expanding at a decreasing rate that tends to be zero as the universe enters in a de Sitter phase. It is worth mentioning that the estimated expansion rates are rather small and they can be neglected for all practical purposes.
Fabi, Valentina; Andersen, Rune Korsholm; Corgnati, Stefano
2016-01-01
energy use during the design stage. Since the reaction to thermal, acoustic, or visual stimuli is not the same for every human being, monitoring the behaviour inside buildings is an essential step to assert differences in energy consumption related to different interactions. Reliable information...... conditions influence occupants' manual controlling of the system in offices and by consequence the energy consumption. The purpose of this study was to investigate the possible drivers for light-switching to model occupant behaviour in office buildings. The probability of switching lighting systems on or off...... who take daylight level into account and switch on lights only if necessary and people who totally disregard the natural lighting. This underlines the importance of how individuality is at the base of the definition of the different types of users....
Impact of discharge data uncertainty on nutrient load uncertainty
Westerberg, Ida; Gustavsson, Hanna; Sonesten, Lars
2016-04-01
Uncertainty in the rating-curve model of the stage-discharge relationship leads to uncertainty in discharge time series. These uncertainties in turn affect many other analyses based on discharge data, such as nutrient load estimations. It is important to understand how large the impact of discharge data uncertainty is on such analyses, since they are often used as the basis to take important environmental management decisions. In the Baltic Sea basin, nutrient load estimates from river mouths are a central information basis for managing and reducing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea. In this study we investigated rating curve uncertainty and its propagation to discharge data uncertainty and thereafter to uncertainty in the load of phosphorous and nitrogen for twelve Swedish river mouths. We estimated rating curve uncertainty using the Voting Point method, which accounts for random and epistemic errors in the stage-discharge relation and allows drawing multiple rating-curve realisations consistent with the total uncertainty. We sampled 40,000 rating curves, and for each sampled curve we calculated a discharge time series from 15-minute water level data for the period 2005-2014. Each discharge time series was then aggregated to daily scale and used to calculate the load of phosphorous and nitrogen from linearly interpolated monthly water samples, following the currently used methodology for load estimation. Finally the yearly load estimates were calculated and we thus obtained distributions with 40,000 load realisations per year - one for each rating curve. We analysed how the rating curve uncertainty propagated to the discharge time series at different temporal resolutions, and its impact on the yearly load estimates. Two shorter periods of daily water quality sampling around the spring flood peak allowed a comparison of load uncertainty magnitudes resulting from discharge data with those resulting from the monthly water quality sampling.
Competence Set Analysis Under Risk and Uncertainty
无
2001-01-01
The competence set analysis technology can be applied to solve the decision making problems successfully and satisfactorily. This paper mainly focuses on the expanding strategy research and development of the competence set under risk and uncertainty. A systematic expression of the competence set analysis is described, several expanding principles and strategies with regard to several different cases are presented, and their applications in the personnel training program are discussed, some conclusions and suggestions to be developed in a further work are included.
Climate model uncertainty vs. conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling
T. O. Sonnenborg
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Projections of climate change impact are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including CO2 emission scenario, climate model, downscaling and impact model. The relative importance of the individual uncertainty sources is expected to depend on several factors including the quantity that is projected. In the present study the impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model uncertainty on hydraulic head, stream flow, travel time and capture zones are evaluated. Six versions of a physically based and distributed hydrological model, each containing a unique interpretation of the geological structure of the model area, are forced by 11 climate model projections. Each projection of future climate is a result of a GCM-RCM model combination (from the ENSEMBLES project forced by the same CO2 scenario (A1B. The changes from the reference period (1991–2010 to the future period (2081–2100 in projected hydrological variables are evaluated and the effects of geological model and climate model uncertainties are quantified. The results show that uncertainty propagation is context dependent. While the geological conceptualization is the dominating uncertainty source for projection of travel time and capture zones, the uncertainty on the climate models is more important for groundwater hydraulic heads and stream flow.
Coalition Formation under Uncertainty
2010-03-01
Unfortunately, many current approaches to coalition formation lack provi- sions for uncertainty. This prevents application of coalition formation techniques ...should also include mechanisms and processing techniques that provide stabil- ity, scalability, and, at a minimum, optimality relative to agent beliefs...relocate a piano . For the sake of simplicity, assume payment is divided evenly among the participants in the move (i.e., each mover has the same utility or
Optimizing production under uncertainty
Rasmussen, Svend
This Working Paper derives criteria for optimal production under uncertainty based on the state-contingent approach (Chambers and Quiggin, 2000), and discusses po-tential problems involved in applying the state-contingent approach in a normative context. The analytical approach uses the concept o...... the relative benefits and of using the state-contingent approach in a norma-tive context, compared to the EV model....
Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Shachter, RD; Henrion, M; Lemmer, JF
1990-01-01
This volume, like its predecessors, reflects the cutting edge of research on the automation of reasoning under uncertainty.A more pragmatic emphasis is evident, for although some papers address fundamental issues, the majority address practical issues. Topics include the relations between alternative formalisms (including possibilistic reasoning), Dempster-Shafer belief functions, non-monotonic reasoning, Bayesian and decision theoretic schemes, and new inference techniques for belief nets. New techniques are applied to important problems in medicine, vision, robotics, and natural language und
Measurement uncertainty of isotopologue fractions in fluxomics determined via mass spectrometry.
Guerrasio, R; Haberhauer-Troyer, C; Steiger, M; Sauer, M; Mattanovich, D; Koellensperger, G; Hann, S
2013-06-01
Metabolic flux analysis implies mass isotopomer distribution analysis and determination of mass isotopologue fractions (IFs) of proteinogenic amino acids of cell cultures. In this work, for the first time, this type of analysis is comprehensively investigated in terms of measurement uncertainty by calculating and comparing budgets for different mass spectrometric techniques. The calculations addressed amino acids of Pichia pastoris grown on 10% uniformly (13)C labeled glucose. Typically, such experiments revealed an enrichment of (13)C by at least one order of magnitude in all proteinogenic amino acids. Liquid chromatography-time-of-flight mass spectrometry (LC-TOFMS), liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses were performed. The samples were diluted to fit the linear dynamic range of the mass spectrometers used (10 μM amino acid concentration). The total combined uncertainties of IFs as well as the major uncertainty contributions affecting the IFs were determined for phenylalanine, which was selected as exemplary model compound. A bottom-up uncertainty propagation was performed according to Quantifying Uncertainty in Analytical Measurement and using the Monte Carlo method by considering all factors leading to an IF, i.e., the process of measurement and the addition of (13)C-glucose. Excellent relative expanded uncertainties (k = 1) of 0.32, 0.75, and 0.96% were obtained for an IF value of 0.7 by LC-MS/MS, GC-MS, and LC-TOFMS, respectively. The major source of uncertainty, with a relative contribution of 20-80% of the total uncertainty, was attributed to the signal intensity (absolute counts) uncertainty calculated according to Poisson counting statistics, regardless which of the mass spectrometry platforms was used. Uncertainty due to measurement repeatability was of importance in LC-MS/MS, showing a relative contribution up to 47% of the total uncertainty, whereas for GC-MS and LC
Meteorological uncertainty and rainfall downscaling
J. von Hardenberg
2007-05-01
Full Text Available We explore the sources of forecast uncertainty in a mixed dynamical-stochastic ensemble prediction chain for small-scale precipitation, suitable for hydrological applications. To this end, we apply the stochastic downscaling method RainFARM to each member of ensemble limited-area forecasts provided by the COSMO-LEPS system. Aim of the work is to quantitatively compare the relative weights of the meteorological uncertainty associated with large-scale synoptic conditions (represented by the ensemble of dynamical forecasts and of the uncertainty due to small-scale processes (represented by the set of fields generated by stochastic downscaling. We show that, in current operational configurations, small- and large-scale uncertainties have roughly the same weight. These results can be used to pinpoint the specific components of the prediction chain where a better estimate of forecast uncertainty is needed.
Lee, Sooyeun; Choi, Hyeyoung; Kim, Eunmi; Choi, Hwakyung; Chung, Heesun; Chung, Kyu Hyuck
2010-05-01
The measurement uncertainty (MU) of methamphetamine (MA) and amphetamine (AP) was estimated in an authentic urine sample with a relatively low concentration of MA and AP using the bottom-up approach. A cause and effect diagram was deduced; the amount of MA or AP in the sample, the volume of the sample, method precision, and sample effect were considered uncertainty sources. The concentrations of MA and AP in the urine sample with their expanded uncertainties were 340.5 +/- 33.2 ng/mL and 113.4 +/- 15.4 ng/mL, respectively, which means 9.7% and 13.6% of the concentration gave an estimated expanded uncertainty, respectively. The largest uncertainty originated from sample effect and method precision in MA and AP, respectively, but the uncertainty of the volume of the sample was minimal in both. The MU needs to be determined during the method validation process to assess test reliability. Moreover, the identification of the largest and/or smallest uncertainty source can help improve experimental protocols.
Stereo-particle image velocimetry uncertainty quantification
Bhattacharya, Sayantan; Charonko, John J.; Vlachos, Pavlos P.
2017-01-01
Particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements are subject to multiple elemental error sources and thus estimating overall measurement uncertainty is challenging. Recent advances have led to a posteriori uncertainty estimation methods for planar two-component PIV. However, no complete methodology exists for uncertainty quantification in stereo PIV. In the current work, a comprehensive framework is presented to quantify the uncertainty stemming from stereo registration error and combine it with the underlying planar velocity uncertainties. The disparity in particle locations of the dewarped images is used to estimate the positional uncertainty of the world coordinate system, which is then propagated to the uncertainty in the calibration mapping function coefficients. Next, the calibration uncertainty is combined with the planar uncertainty fields of the individual cameras through an uncertainty propagation equation and uncertainty estimates are obtained for all three velocity components. The methodology was tested with synthetic stereo PIV data for different light sheet thicknesses, with and without registration error, and also validated with an experimental vortex ring case from 2014 PIV challenge. Thorough sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the relative impact of the various parameters to the overall uncertainty. The results suggest that in absence of any disparity, the stereo PIV uncertainty prediction method is more sensitive to the planar uncertainty estimates than to the angle uncertainty, although the latter is not negligible for non-zero disparity. Overall the presented uncertainty quantification framework showed excellent agreement between the error and uncertainty RMS values for both the synthetic and the experimental data and demonstrated reliable uncertainty prediction coverage. This stereo PIV uncertainty quantification framework provides the first comprehensive treatment on the subject and potentially lays foundations applicable to volumetric
Physical and Model Uncertainty for Fatigue Design of Composite Material
Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
The main aim of the present report is to establish stochastic models for the uncertainties related to fatigue design of composite materials. The uncertainties considered are the physical uncertainty related to the static and fatigue strength and the model uncertainty related to Miners rule...
Vámos, Tibor
The gist of the paper is the fundamental uncertain nature of all kinds of uncertainties and consequently a critical epistemic review of historical and recent approaches, computational methods, algorithms. The review follows the development of the notion from the beginnings of thinking, via the Aristotelian and Skeptic view, the medieval nominalism and the influential pioneering metaphors of ancient India and Persia to the birth of modern mathematical disciplinary reasoning. Discussing the models of uncertainty, e.g. the statistical, other physical and psychological background we reach a pragmatic model related estimation perspective, a balanced application orientation for different problem areas. Data mining, game theories and recent advances in approximation algorithms are discussed in this spirit of modest reasoning.
Hurlbert, Margot; Gupta, Joyeeta
2016-02-01
As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
Uncertainty principle in larmor clock
QIAO Chuan; REN Zhong-Zhou
2011-01-01
It is well known that the spin operators of a quantum particle must obey uncertainty relations.We use the uncertainty principle to study the Larmor clock.To avoid breaking the uncertainty principle,Larmor time can be defined as the ratio of the phase difference between a spin-up particle and a spin-down particle to the corresponding Larmor frequency.The connection between the dwell time and the Larmor time has also been confirmed.Moreover,the results show that the behavior of the Larmor time depends on the height and width of the barrier.
Moore, C; Pure, K; Furrow, D
1990-06-01
2 experiments examined children's understanding of the expression of speaker certainty and uncertainty and its relation to their developing theory of mind. In the first experiment, 80 children between 3 and 6 years of age were presented with a task in which they had to guess the location of an object hidden in 1 of 2 boxes. As clues to location, the children were presented with contrasting pairs of statements by 2 puppets. Different trials contained all of the possible pairwise combinations of either the modal verbs must, might, and could or the modal adjuncts probably, possibly, and maybe. Results showed that while 3-year-olds did not differentiate between any of the modal contrasts presented, 4-year-olds and older children were able to find the hidden object on the basis of what they heard. Performance was best for contrasts involving a highly certain term (either must or probably) paired with a less certain term (might, could, possibly, and maybe). Experiment 2 was designed to determine whether competence with modal terms was related to competence with mental terms in the same task, and whether performance on the certainty task was related to other aspects of the child's understanding of the nature of beliefs. 26 4-year-olds were presented with the certainty task, involving both modal and mental terms, and with tasks assessing their understanding of false beliefs, representational change, and the appearance-reality distinction. Results showed that all of these tasks were intercorrelated, implying that what may develop at 4 years of age may be a general understanding of the representational nature of belief.
Ramounet-Le Gall, B; Rateau, G; Abram, M C; Grillon, G; Ansoborlo, E; Bérard, P; Delforge, J; Fritsch, P
2003-01-01
The aim of this study was to compare dissolution parameter values for Pu from industrial MOX with different Pu contents. For this purpose, preliminary results obtained after inhalation exposure of rats to MOX containing 2.5% Pu are reported and compared to those obtained previously with MOX containing 5% Pu. Dissolution parameter values appear to increase when the amount of Pu decreases. Rapid fractions, f(r), of 4 x 10(-3) (s.d. = 2 x 10(-3)) and 1 x 10(-3) (s.d. = 6 x 10(-4)) and slow dissolution rates, s(s) of 2 x 10(-4) d(-1) (standard deviation, sigma = 5 x 10(-5)) and 5 x 10(-5) d(-1) (sigma = 1 x 10(-5)) were derived for MOX containing 2.5 and 5% of Pu, respectively. Simulations were performed to assess uncertainties on dose due to experimental errors. The relative standard deviations of the dose per unit intake (DPUI) due to f(r) (4-8%), are far less than those due to s(s) (about 20%), which is the main parameter altering the dose. Although quite different dissolution parameter values were derived, similar DPUIs were obtained for MOX aerosols containing 2.5 and 5% Pu which appear close to that for default Type S values.
Kisner, W H
1991-02-01
The use of the forehead flap for nasal reconstruction has long been used by reconstructive surgeons. A case is presented in which comprised forehead skin is utilized following expansion by a tissue expander.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents sediment size prediction uncertainty from a sediment spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also...
Verification of uncertainty budgets
Heydorn, Kaj; Madsen, B.S.
2005-01-01
The quality of analytical results is expressed by their uncertainty, as it is estimated on the basis of an uncertainty budget; little effort is, however, often spent on ascertaining the quality of the uncertainty budget. The uncertainty budget is based on circumstantial or historical data, and th...
Pawel, David [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Leggett, Richard Wayne [ORNL; Eckerman, Keith F [ORNL; Nelson, Christopher [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
2007-01-01
Federal Guidance Report No. 13 (FGR 13) provides risk coefficients for estimation of the risk of cancer due to low-level exposure to each of more than 800 radionuclides. Uncertainties in risk coefficients were quantified in FGR 13 for 33 cases (exposure to each of 11 radionuclides by each of three exposure pathways) on the basis of sensitivity analyses in which various combinations of plausible biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk models were used to generate alternative risk coefficients. The present report updates the uncertainty analysis in FGR 13 for the cases of inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides and expands the analysis to all radionuclides addressed in that report. The analysis indicates that most risk coefficients for inhalation or ingestion of radionuclides are determined within a factor of 5 or less by current information. That is, application of alternate plausible biokinetic and dosimetric models and radiation risk models (based on the linear, no-threshold hypothesis with an adjustment for the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor) is unlikely to change these coefficients by more than a factor of 5. In this analysis the assessed uncertainty in the radiation risk model was found to be the main determinant of the uncertainty category for most risk coefficients, but conclusions concerning the relative contributions of risk and dose models to the total uncertainty in a risk coefficient may depend strongly on the method of assessing uncertainties in the risk model.
A protocol for assessment of uncertainty and strength of emissions data
Risbey, James S.; Sluijs, J.P. van der; Ravetz, Jerome R.
2006-01-01
This method is intended to assist in characterizing uncertainties in emissions data for the Mileubalans and to identify critical issues related to uncertainty. The method assesses both quantitative and qualitative dimensions of uncertainty. Quantitative uncertainties are expressed by assigning proba
Collective Uncertainty Entanglement Test
Rudnicki, Łukasz; Życzkowski, Karol
2011-01-01
For a given pure state of a composite quantum system we analyze the product of its projections onto a set of locally orthogonal separable pure states. We derive a bound for this product analogous to the entropic uncertainty relations. For bipartite systems the bound is saturated for maximally entangled states and it allows us to construct a family of entanglement measures, we shall call collectibility. As these quantities are experimentally accessible, the approach advocated contributes to the task of experimental quantification of quantum entanglement, while for a three-qubit system it is capable to identify the genuine three-party entanglement.
Wu, Yingquan
2008-01-01
The paper has a threefold purpose. The first purpose is to present an explicit description of expanded cyclic codes defined in $\\GF(q^m)$. The proposed explicit construction of expanded generator matrix and expanded parity check matrix maintains the symbol-wise algebraic structure and thus keeps many important original characteristics. The second purpose of this paper is to identify a class of constant-weight cyclic codes. Specifically, we show that a well-known class of $q$-ary BCH codes excluding the all-zero codeword are constant-weight cyclic codes. Moreover, we show this class of codes achieve the Plotkin bound. The last purpose of the paper is to characterize expanded cyclic codes utilizing the proposed expanded generator matrix and parity check matrix. We analyze the properties of component codewords of a codeword and particularly establish the precise conditions under which a codeword can be represented by a subbasis. With the new insights, we present an improved lower bound on the minimum distance of...
Magnusson, Bertil; Ossowicki, Haakan; Rienitz, Olaf; Theodorsson, Elvar
2012-05-01
Healthcare laboratories are increasingly joining into larger laboratory organizations encompassing several physical laboratories. This caters for important new opportunities for re-defining the concept of a 'laboratory' to encompass all laboratories and measurement methods measuring the same measurand for a population of patients. In order to make measurement results, comparable bias should be minimized or eliminated and measurement uncertainty properly evaluated for all methods used for a particular patient population. The measurement as well as diagnostic uncertainty can be evaluated from internal and external quality control results using GUM principles. In this paper the uncertainty evaluations are described in detail using only two main components, within-laboratory reproducibility and uncertainty of the bias component according to a Nordtest guideline. The evaluation is exemplified for the determination of creatinine in serum for a conglomerate of laboratories both expressed in absolute units (μmol/L) and relative (%). An expanded measurement uncertainty of 12 μmol/L associated with concentrations of creatinine below 120 μmol/L and of 10% associated with concentrations above 120 μmol/L was estimated. The diagnostic uncertainty encompasses both measurement uncertainty and biological variation, and can be estimated for a single value and for a difference. This diagnostic uncertainty for the difference for two samples from the same patient was determined to be 14 μmol/L associated with concentrations of creatinine below 100 μmol/L and 14 % associated with concentrations above 100 μmol/L.
Silicon microfabricated beam expander
Othman, A.; Ibrahim, M. N.; Hamzah, I. H.; Sulaiman, A. A.; Ain, M. F.
2015-03-01
The feasibility design and development methods of silicon microfabricated beam expander are described. Silicon bulk micromachining fabrication technology is used in producing features of the structure. A high-precision complex 3-D shape of the expander can be formed by exploiting the predictable anisotropic wet etching characteristics of single-crystal silicon in aqueous Potassium-Hydroxide (KOH) solution. The beam-expander consist of two elements, a micromachined silicon reflector chamber and micro-Fresnel zone plate. The micro-Fresnel element is patterned using lithographic methods. The reflector chamber element has a depth of 40 µm, a diameter of 15 mm and gold-coated surfaces. The impact on the depth, diameter of the chamber and absorption for improved performance are discussed.
Silicon microfabricated beam expander
Othman, A., E-mail: aliman@ppinang.uitm.edu.my; Ibrahim, M. N.; Hamzah, I. H.; Sulaiman, A. A. [Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi MARA Malaysia, 40450, Shah Alam, Selangor (Malaysia); Ain, M. F. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Engineering Campus, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Seri Ampangan, 14300,Nibong Tebal, Pulau Pinang (Malaysia)
2015-03-30
The feasibility design and development methods of silicon microfabricated beam expander are described. Silicon bulk micromachining fabrication technology is used in producing features of the structure. A high-precision complex 3-D shape of the expander can be formed by exploiting the predictable anisotropic wet etching characteristics of single-crystal silicon in aqueous Potassium-Hydroxide (KOH) solution. The beam-expander consist of two elements, a micromachined silicon reflector chamber and micro-Fresnel zone plate. The micro-Fresnel element is patterned using lithographic methods. The reflector chamber element has a depth of 40 µm, a diameter of 15 mm and gold-coated surfaces. The impact on the depth, diameter of the chamber and absorption for improved performance are discussed.
Francisco Cutanda Henríquez
2011-01-01
computation and experimental uncertainty. This work utilizes mathematical methods to analyse comparisons, so that uncertainty can be taken into account. Therefore, false rejections due to uncertainty do not take place and there is no need to expand tolerances to take uncertainty into account. The methods provided are based on the rules of uncertainty propagation and help obtain rigorous pass/fail criteria, based on experimental information.
Expanding the Game Design Space
Larsen, Lasse Juel; Majgaard, Gunver
2016-01-01
This article considers game design research in educational settings. Its focus is on how undergraduate students – particularly engineering students – learn computer game design. From observations conducted during our game design courses we have developed a model of expanded game design space......, providing a clear game design assignment that involves the formulation of intended player experience and a description of game mechanics. The second layer focuses on game design thinking from six different aspects of game design chosen in relation to the framing of the game design assignment. The third....... It encapsulates the entire development process from the first ideas to the final game with emphasis on game design thinking. Our model of expanded game design space consists of four separate – yet interconnected – layers in the process of game development. The first layer addresses the importance of framing...
Total uncertainty of low velocity thermal anemometers for measurement of indoor air movements
Jørgensen, F.; Popiolek, Z.; Melikov, Arsen Krikor
2004-01-01
For a specific thermal anemometer with omnidirectional velocity sensor the expanded total uncertainty in measured mean velocity Û(Vmean) and the expanded total uncertainty in measured turbulence intensity Û(Tu) due to different error sources are estimated. The values are based on a previously dev...
Emanuela BELDEAN
2013-09-01
Full Text Available The measurement uncertainty is a quantitativeindicator of the results quality, meaning how well theresult represents the value of the quantity beingmeasured. It is a relatively new concept and severalguides and regulations were elaborated in order tofacilitate laboratories to evaluate it. The uncertaintycomponents are quantified based on data fromrepeated measurements, previous measurements,knowledge of the equipment and experience of themeasurement. Uncertainity estimation involves arigorous evaluation of possible sources of uncertaintyand good knowledge of the measurement procedure.The case study presented in this paper revealed thebasic steps in uncertainty calculation for formaldehydeemission from wood-based panels determined by the1m3 Chamber method. Based on a very well definedIshikawa Diagram, the expanded uncertainty of0.044mg/m3 for k=2, at 95% confidence level wasestablished.
Verbeek, P.P.C.C.
2012-01-01
In his article In Between Us, Yoni van den Eede expands existing theories of mediation into the realm of the social and the political, focusing on the notions of opacity and transparency. His approach is rich and promising, but two pitfalls should be avoided. First, his concept of ‘in-between’ runs
Expanding Student Assessment Opportunities.
Bartscher, Beth; Carter, Andrea; Lawlor, Anna; McKelvey, Barbara
This paper describes an approach for expanding assessment opportunities for students to demonstrate their understanding of content. The targeted population consisted of elementary and junior high school students in two schools in a growing middle-class community in north central Illinois. The elementary school enrolled 467 students and the junior…
Nanoparticles: Uncertainty Risk Analysis
Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders
2012-01-01
Scientific uncertainty plays a major role in assessing the potential environmental risks of nanoparticles. Moreover, there is uncertainty within fundamental data and information regarding the potential environmental and health risks of nanoparticles, hampering risk assessments based on standard a...
Karan Mittal; Riddhish Patadia; Chintan Vora; Rajashree C. Mashru
2015-01-01
Risk assessment and uncertainty approximation are two major and important parameters that need to be adopted for the development of pharmaceutical process to ensure reliable results. Additionally, there is a need to switch from the traditional method validation checklist to provide a high level of assurance of method reliability to measure quality attribute of a drug product. In the present work, evaluation of risk profile, combined standard uncertainty and expanded uncertainty in the analysis of acyclovir were studied. Uncertainty was calculated using cause-effect approach, and to make it more accurately applicable a method was validated in our laboratory as per the ICH guidelines. While assessing the results of validation, the calibration model was justified by the lack of fit and Levene’s test. Risk profile represents the future applications of this method. In uncertainty the major contribution is due to sample concentration and mass. This work demonstrates the application of theoretical concepts of calibration model tests, relative bias, risk profile and uncertainty in routine methods used for analysis in pharmaceutical field.
Uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data
B. Nilsson
2007-09-01
Full Text Available Uncertainty in conceptual model structure and in environmental data is of essential interest when dealing with uncertainty in water resources management. To make quantification of uncertainty possible is it necessary to identify and characterise the uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data. This paper discusses a range of available techniques to describe the uncertainty related to geological model structure and scale of support. Literature examples on uncertainty in hydrogeological variables such as saturated hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, specific storage, effective porosity and dispersivity are given. Field data usually have a spatial and temporal scale of support that is different from the one on which numerical models for water resources management operate. Uncertainty in hydrogeological data variables is characterised and assessed within the methodological framework of the HarmoniRiB classification.
Review on Generalized Uncertainty Principle
Tawfik, Abdel Nasser
2015-01-01
Based on string theory, black hole physics, doubly special relativity and some "thought" experiments, minimal distance and/or maximum momentum are proposed. As alternatives to the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP), the modified dispersion relation, the space noncommutativity, the Lorentz invariance violation, and the quantum-gravity-induced birefringence effects are summarized. The origin of minimal measurable quantities and the different GUP approaches are reviewed and the corresponding observations are analysed. Bounds on the GUP parameter are discussed and implemented in understanding recent PLANCK observations on the cosmic inflation. The higher-order GUP approaches predict minimal length uncertainty with and without maximum momenta.
Gürhan UYSAL
2008-01-01
Full Text Available This study explores the impact of resource uncertainty and relational exchange between customer and supplier. Resource uncertainty involves factors as resource concentration, resource availability uncertainty and resource interconnectedness. The necessary data has been collected from 134 companies in Marmara Region through a questionnaire. This study, therefore, adopts factor, correlation and regression analyses to test impact of resource uncertainty on relational exchange. Data analysis reveals that resource concentration and resource availability uncertainty do not have an impact on relational exchange between customer and supplier and resource interconnectedness influences relational exchange. Furthermore, One-way Anova tests demonstrate that resource concentration, resource availability uncertainty and resource interconnectedness do not significantly differentiate on control variables such as industry, foundation year, revenues and number of employees.
Hwang, Rong-Jen; Rogers, Craig; Beltran, Jada; Razatos, Gerasimos; Avery, Jason
2016-06-01
Reporting a measurement of uncertainty helps to determine the limitations of the method of analysis and aids in laboratory accreditation. This laboratory has conducted a study to estimate a reasonable uncertainty for the mass concentration of vaporous ethanol, in g/210 L, by the Intoxilyzer(®) 8000 breath analyzer. The uncertainty sources used were: gas chromatograph (GC) calibration adjustment, GC analytical, certified reference material, Intoxilyzer(®) 8000 calibration adjustment and Intoxilyzer(®) 8000 analytical. Standard uncertainties attributed to these sources were calculated and separated into proportional and constant standard uncertainties. Both the combined proportional and the constant standard uncertainties were further combined to an expanded uncertainty as both a percentage and an unit. To prevent any under reporting of the expanded uncertainty, 0.10 g/210 L was chosen as the defining point for expressing the expanded uncertainty. For the Intoxilyzer(®) 8000, all vaporous ethanol results at or above 0.10 g/210 L, the expanded uncertainty will be reported as ±3.6% at a confidence level of 95% (k = 2); for vaporous ethanol results below 0.10 g/210 L, the expanded uncertainty will be reported as ±0.0036 g/210 L at a confidence level of 95% (k = 2).
Worry, Intolerance of Uncertainty, and Statistics Anxiety
Williams, Amanda S.
2013-01-01
Statistics anxiety is a problem for most graduate students. This study investigates the relationship between intolerance of uncertainty, worry, and statistics anxiety. Intolerance of uncertainty was significantly related to worry, and worry was significantly related to three types of statistics anxiety. Six types of statistics anxiety were…
Worry, Intolerance of Uncertainty, and Statistics Anxiety
Williams, Amanda S.
2013-01-01
Statistics anxiety is a problem for most graduate students. This study investigates the relationship between intolerance of uncertainty, worry, and statistics anxiety. Intolerance of uncertainty was significantly related to worry, and worry was significantly related to three types of statistics anxiety. Six types of statistics anxiety were…
Non-scalar uncertainty: Uncertainty in dynamic systems
Martinez, Salvador Gutierrez
1992-01-01
The following point is stated throughout the paper: dynamic systems are usually subject to uncertainty, be it the unavoidable quantic uncertainty when working with sufficiently small scales or when working in large scales uncertainty can be allowed by the researcher in order to simplify the problem, or it can be introduced by nonlinear interactions. Even though non-quantic uncertainty can generally be dealt with by using the ordinary probability formalisms, it can also be studied with the proposed non-scalar formalism. Thus, non-scalar uncertainty is a more general theoretical framework giving insight into the nature of uncertainty and providing a practical tool in those cases in which scalar uncertainty is not enough, such as when studying highly nonlinear dynamic systems. This paper's specific contribution is the general concept of non-scalar uncertainty and a first proposal for a methodology. Applications should be based upon this methodology. The advantage of this approach is to provide simpler mathematical models for prediction of the system states. Present conventional tools for dealing with uncertainty prove insufficient for an effective description of some dynamic systems. The main limitations are overcome abandoning ordinary scalar algebra in the real interval (0, 1) in favor of a tensor field with a much richer structure and generality. This approach gives insight into the interpretation of Quantum Mechanics and will have its most profound consequences in the fields of elementary particle physics and nonlinear dynamic systems. Concepts like 'interfering alternatives' and 'discrete states' have an elegant explanation in this framework in terms of properties of dynamic systems such as strange attractors and chaos. The tensor formalism proves especially useful to describe the mechanics of representing dynamic systems with models that are closer to reality and have relatively much simpler solutions. It was found to be wise to get an approximate solution to an
Parton Distribution Function Uncertainties
Giele, Walter T.; Kosower, David A.; Giele, Walter T.; Keller, Stephane A.; Kosower, David A.
2001-01-01
We present parton distribution functions which include a quantitative estimate of its uncertainties. The parton distribution functions are optimized with respect to deep inelastic proton data, expressing the uncertainties as a density measure over the functional space of parton distribution functions. This leads to a convenient method of propagating the parton distribution function uncertainties to new observables, now expressing the uncertainty as a density in the prediction of the observable. New measurements can easily be included in the optimized sets as added weight functions to the density measure. Using the optimized method nowhere in the analysis compromises have to be made with regard to the treatment of the uncertainties.
Andres, T.H
2002-05-01
This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)
Expanding the HAWC Observatory
Mori, Johanna [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2016-08-17
The High Altitude Water Cherenkov Gamma-Ray Observatory is expanding its current array of 300 water tanks to include 350 outrigger tanks to increase sensitivity to gamma rays above 10 TeV. This involves creating and testing hardware with which to build the new tanks, including photomultiplier tubes, high voltage supply units, and flash analog to digital converters. My responsibilities this summer included preparing, testing and calibrating that equipment.
Uncertainty and Cognitive Control
Faisal eMushtaq
2011-10-01
Full Text Available A growing trend of neuroimaging, behavioural and computational research has investigated the topic of outcome uncertainty in decision-making. Although evidence to date indicates that humans are very effective in learning to adapt to uncertain situations, the nature of the specific cognitive processes involved in the adaptation to uncertainty are still a matter of debate. In this article, we reviewed evidence suggesting that cognitive control processes are at the heart of uncertainty in decision-making contexts. Available evidence suggests that: (1 There is a strong conceptual overlap between the constructs of uncertainty and cognitive control; (2 There is a remarkable overlap between the neural networks associated with uncertainty and the brain networks subserving cognitive control; (3 The perception and estimation of uncertainty might play a key role in monitoring processes and the evaluation of the need for control; (4 Potential interactions between uncertainty and cognitive control might play a significant role in several affective disorders.
Pittsburgh Univ., PA. School of Education.
The project was designed to acquaint home economics teachers with the textile and power sewing industry's history, job possibilities, and student (including disadvantaged and handicapped) needs and interests. Teachers were taught industrial machine operation, basic maintenance, and safety tips. Four objectives related to gainful clothing services…
Orbit uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis with separated representations
Balducci, Marc; Jones, Brandon; Doostan, Alireza
2017-09-01
Most approximations for stochastic differential equations with high-dimensional, non-Gaussian inputs suffer from a rapid (e.g., exponential) increase of computational cost, an issue known as the curse of dimensionality. In astrodynamics, this results in reduced accuracy when propagating an orbit-state probability density function. This paper considers the application of separated representations for orbit uncertainty propagation, where future states are expanded into a sum of products of univariate functions of initial states and other uncertain parameters. An accurate generation of separated representation requires a number of state samples that is linear in the dimension of input uncertainties. The computation cost of a separated representation scales linearly with respect to the sample count, thereby improving tractability when compared to methods that suffer from the curse of dimensionality. In addition to detailed discussions on their construction and use in sensitivity analysis, this paper presents results for three test cases of an Earth orbiting satellite. The first two cases demonstrate that approximation via separated representations produces a tractable solution for propagating the Cartesian orbit-state uncertainty with up to 20 uncertain inputs. The third case, which instead uses Equinoctial elements, reexamines a scenario presented in the literature and employs the proposed method for sensitivity analysis to more thoroughly characterize the relative effects of uncertain inputs on the propagated state.
Information, uncertainty and holographic action
Dikken, Robbert-Jan
2016-01-01
In this short note we show through simple derivation the explicit relation between information flow and the theories of the emergence of space-time and gravity, specifically for Newton's second law of motion. Next, in a rather straightforward derivation the Heisenberg uncertainty relation is uncovered from the universal bound on information flow. A relation between the universal bound on information flow and the change in bulk action is also shown to exist.
Uncertainties in Site Amplification Estimation
Cramer, C. H.; Bonilla, F.; Hartzell, S.
2004-12-01
Typically geophysical profiles (layer thickness, velocity, density, Q) and dynamic soil properties (modulus and damping versus strain curves) are used with appropriate input ground motions in a soil response computer code to estimate site amplification. Uncertainties in observations can be used to generate a distribution of possible site amplifications. The biggest sources of uncertainty in site amplifications estimates are the uncertainties in (1) input ground motions, (2) shear-wave velocities (Vs), (3) dynamic soil properties, (4) soil response code used, and (5) dynamic pore pressure effects. A study of site amplification was conducted for the 1 km thick Mississippi embayment sediments beneath Memphis, Tennessee (see USGS OFR 04-1294 on the web). In this study, the first three sources of uncertainty resulted in a combined coefficient of variation of 10 to 60 percent. The choice of soil response computer program can lead to uncertainties in median estimates of +/- 50 percent. Dynamic pore pressure effects due to the passing of seismic waves in saturated soft sediments are normally not considered in site-amplification studies and can contribute further large uncertainties in site amplification estimates. The effects may range from dilatancy and high-frequency amplification (such as observed at some sites during the 1993 Kushiro-Oki, Japan and 2001 Nisqually, Washington earthquakes) or general soil failure and deamplification of ground motions (such as observed at Treasure Island during the 1989 Loma Prieta, California earthquake). Examples of two case studies using geotechnical data for downhole arrays in Kushiro, Japan and the Wildlife Refuge, California using one dynamic code, NOAH, will be presented as examples of modeling uncertainties associated with these effects. Additionally, an example of inversion for estimates of in-situ dilatancy-related geotechnical modeling parameters will be presented for the Kushiro, Japan site.
Zubritsky, Cynthia; Abbott, Katherine M.; Hirschman, Karen B.; Bowles, Kathryn H.; Foust, Janice B.; Naylor, Mary D.
2013-01-01
For older adults receiving long-term services and supports (LTSS), health-related quality of life (HRQoL) has emerged as a critical construct to examine because of its focus on components of well-being, which are affected by progressive changes in health status, health care, and social support. HRQoL is a health-focused quality of life (QOL)…
Uncertainty under quantum measures and quantum memory
Xiao, Yunlong; Jing, Naihuan; Li-Jost, Xianqing
2017-04-01
The uncertainty principle restricts potential information one gains about physical properties of the measured particle. However, if the particle is prepared in entanglement with a quantum memory, the corresponding entropic uncertainty relation will vary. Based on the knowledge of correlations between the measured particle and quantum memory, we have investigated the entropic uncertainty relations for two and multiple measurements and generalized the lower bounds on the sum of Shannon entropies without quantum side information to those that allow quantum memory. In particular, we have obtained generalization of Kaniewski-Tomamichel-Wehner's bound for effective measures and majorization bounds for noneffective measures to allow quantum side information. Furthermore, we have derived several strong bounds for the entropic uncertainty relations in the presence of quantum memory for two and multiple measurements. Finally, potential applications of our results to entanglement witnesses are discussed via the entropic uncertainty relation in the absence of quantum memory.
Uncertainty in in-place filter test results
Scripsick, R.C.; Beckman, R.J.; Mokler, B.V.
1996-12-31
Some benefits of accounting for uncertainty in in-place filter test results are explored. Information the test results provide relative to system performance acceptance limits is evaluated in terms of test result uncertainty. An expression for test result uncertainty is used to estimate uncertainty in in-place filter tests on an example air cleaning system. Modifications to the system test geometry are evaluated in terms of effects on test result uncertainty.
Davis, C B
1987-08-01
The uncertainties of calculations of loss-of-feedwater transients at Davis-Besse Unit 1 were determined to address concerns of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relative to the effectiveness of feed and bleed cooling. Davis-Besse Unit 1 is a pressurized water reactor of the raised-loop Babcock and Wilcox design. A detailed, quality-assured RELAP5/MOD2 model of Davis-Besse was developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The model was used to perform an analysis of the loss-of-feedwater transient that occurred at Davis-Besse on June 9, 1985. A loss-of-feedwater transient followed by feed and bleed cooling was also calculated. The evaluation of uncertainty was based on the comparisons of calculations and data, comparisons of different calculations of the same transient, sensitivity calculations, and the propagation of the estimated uncertainty in initial and boundary conditions to the final calculated results.
Farley, Jennifer L; Whipple, Ellen E
2017-09-01
The expansion of infant mental health (IMH) to at-risk preschoolers and their families has contributed to the integration of relational play therapy (RPT) into IMH treatment services for this population. Integrating RPT allows access to specialized play and expressive techniques specific to preschool and family development, which improves the clinical ability to meet the multiple and complex needs of at-risk parent-child dyads and their families. This article will examine the RPT literature and explore the similarities and differences between IMH and RPT. In addition, two case studies will highlight a five-phase, integrative clinical-treatment process and provide insight into how IMH clinicians are integrating RPT models and maintaining adherence to the IMH treatment approach. © 2017 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.
Kaltenhauser, Kristin
2015-01-01
Expanding your horizons is a bi-annual “Science Day” for girls aged 11 to 14, held at the University of Geneva on 14 November. The girls had the opportunity to take part in hands-on workshops held by local professional women in the field of science, mathematics, engineering and technology. For the fourth time, CERN was part of this event, offering three workshops as well as a booth at the Discovery Fair, including Higgnite, an interactive visualization of the Higgs Field.
Lew, Kristi
2011-01-01
People have always been fascinated with the stars above and the universe that contains them. Over the years, astronomers have developed numerous theories to explain how the universe began, how it works, and what its ultimate fate will be. But all of the scientists' questions are far from answered. The Expanding Universe goes beyond the creation of the universe to explain how scientists think the universe works, grows, and changes, including what great thinkers Isaac Newton and Albert Einstein had to say about its fate. Readers will also learn about how researchers are slowly shedding light on
Visual Semiotics & Uncertainty Visualization: An Empirical Study.
MacEachren, A M; Roth, R E; O'Brien, J; Li, B; Swingley, D; Gahegan, M
2012-12-01
This paper presents two linked empirical studies focused on uncertainty visualization. The experiments are framed from two conceptual perspectives. First, a typology of uncertainty is used to delineate kinds of uncertainty matched with space, time, and attribute components of data. Second, concepts from visual semiotics are applied to characterize the kind of visual signification that is appropriate for representing those different categories of uncertainty. This framework guided the two experiments reported here. The first addresses representation intuitiveness, considering both visual variables and iconicity of representation. The second addresses relative performance of the most intuitive abstract and iconic representations of uncertainty on a map reading task. Combined results suggest initial guidelines for representing uncertainty and discussion focuses on practical applicability of results.
Estimating uncertainties in complex joint inverse problems
Afonso, Juan Carlos
2016-04-01
Sources of uncertainty affecting geophysical inversions can be classified either as reflective (i.e. the practitioner is aware of her/his ignorance) or non-reflective (i.e. the practitioner does not know that she/he does not know!). Although we should be always conscious of the latter, the former are the ones that, in principle, can be estimated either empirically (by making measurements or collecting data) or subjectively (based on the experience of the researchers). For complex parameter estimation problems in geophysics, subjective estimation of uncertainty is the most common type. In this context, probabilistic (aka Bayesian) methods are commonly claimed to offer a natural and realistic platform from which to estimate model uncertainties. This is because in the Bayesian approach, errors (whatever their nature) can be naturally included as part of the global statistical model, the solution of which represents the actual solution to the inverse problem. However, although we agree that probabilistic inversion methods are the most powerful tool for uncertainty estimation, the common claim that they produce "realistic" or "representative" uncertainties is not always justified. Typically, ALL UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATES ARE MODEL DEPENDENT, and therefore, besides a thorough characterization of experimental uncertainties, particular care must be paid to the uncertainty arising from model errors and input uncertainties. We recall here two quotes by G. Box and M. Gunzburger, respectively, of special significance for inversion practitioners and for this session: "…all models are wrong, but some are useful" and "computational results are believed by no one, except the person who wrote the code". In this presentation I will discuss and present examples of some problems associated with the estimation and quantification of uncertainties in complex multi-observable probabilistic inversions, and how to address them. Although the emphasis will be on sources of uncertainty related
S Nian
2011-05-01
Full Text Available Introduction: Transplantation of an intact differentiated retinal pigment epithelial (RPE cell layer may provide a means to treat Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD. However, harvesting RPE cells can be a technically complicated procedure. Our current work aimed to prepare intact differentiated iris pigment epithelial (IPE cell layers, which are easy to obtain and have the same embryonic origin and similar properties as RPE cells, on ePTFE substrates for transplantation purposes to rescue deteriorated photoreceptors in AMD. Methods: IPE cells isolated from rat eyes were seeded on different substrates, including fibronectin n-heptylamine (HA ePTFE substrates, HA ePTFE substrates, ePTFE substrates and fibronectin tissue culture polystyrene (TCPS as control. Cell number and morphology were assessed at each time interval. The formation of tight junction was examined by immunostaining of junction proteins. Results: An obvious increasing trend of cell number was observed in IPE cells on fibronectin n-heptylamine (HA ePTFE substrate, exhibiting heavy pigmentation and epithelial morphology. At Day 28, tight junction formation was indicated by cell-cell junctional proteins along cell borders. Conclusion: Harvested IPE cells cultured on fibronectin HA-ePTFE substrates can differentiate and form a cell monolayer that may be suitable for transplantation.
Milhome, M. A. L.; Sousa, J. S.; Andrade, G. A.; de Castro, R. C.; Lima, L. K.; Lima, C. G.; Nascimento, R. F.
2015-01-01
QuEChERS method and detection in GC/SQ-MS were validated for the analysis of 35 pesticides in melon. Validation parameters (selectivity, linearity, LOD, LOQ, accuracy and precision) were determined according ABNT NBR 14029:2005. The recoveries rates for all the pesticides studied were from 63% to 117% with relative standard deviation (RSD) lower than 15% in the concentration range of 0.05 - 0.20 mg/kg. The limit of quantification (LOQ) for most compounds were below the MRLs established in Brazil. The combined relative uncertainty (Uc) and expanded uncertainty (Ue) was determined using repetitivity, recovery and calibration curves data for each pesticide.
An Ontology for Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections
King, A. W.
2011-12-01
Paraphrasing Albert Einstein's aphorism about scientific quantification: not all uncertainty that counts can be counted, and not all uncertainty that can be counted counts. The meaning of the term "uncertainty" in climate change science and assessment is itself uncertain. Different disciplines and perspectives bring different nuances if not meanings of the term to the conversation. For many scientists, uncertainty is somehow associated with statistical dispersion and standard error. For many users of climate change information, uncertainty is more related to their confidence, or lack thereof, in climate models. These "uncertainties" may be related, but they are not identical, and there is considerable room for confusion and misunderstanding. A knowledge framework, a system of concepts and vocabulary, for communicating uncertainty can add structure to the characterization and quantification of uncertainty and aid communication among scientists and users. I have developed an ontology for uncertainty in climate change projections derived largely from the report of the W3C Uncertainty Reasoning for the World Wide Web Incubator Group (URW3-XG) dealing with the problem of uncertainty representation and reasoning on the World Wide Web. I have adapted this ontology for uncertainty about information to uncertainty about climate change. Elements of the ontology apply with little or no translation to the information of climate change projections, with climate change almost a use case. Other elements can be translated into language used in climate-change discussions; translating aleatory uncertainty in the UncertaintyNature class as irreducible uncertainty is an example. I have added classes for source of uncertainty (UncertaintySource) (different model physics, for example) and metrics of uncertainty (UncertaintyMetric), at least, in the case of the latter, for those instances of uncertainty that can be quantified (i.e., counted). The statistical standard deviation isa member
Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Kanal, LN
1986-01-01
How to deal with uncertainty is a subject of much controversy in Artificial Intelligence. This volume brings together a wide range of perspectives on uncertainty, many of the contributors being the principal proponents in the controversy.Some of the notable issues which emerge from these papers revolve around an interval-based calculus of uncertainty, the Dempster-Shafer Theory, and probability as the best numeric model for uncertainty. There remain strong dissenting opinions not only about probability but even about the utility of any numeric method in this context.
[Ethics, empiricism and uncertainty].
Porz, R; Zimmermann, H; Exadaktylos, A K
2011-01-01
Accidents can lead to difficult boundary situations. Such situations often take place in the emergency units. The medical team thus often and inevitably faces professional uncertainty in their decision-making. It is essential to communicate these uncertainties within the medical team, instead of downplaying or overriding existential hurdles in decision-making. Acknowledging uncertainties might lead to alert and prudent decisions. Thus uncertainty can have ethical value in treatment or withdrawal of treatment. It does not need to be covered in evidence-based arguments, especially as some singular situations of individual tragedies cannot be grasped in terms of evidence-based medicine. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
Fuzzy Uncertainty Evaluation for Fault Tree Analysis
Kim, Ki Beom; Shim, Hyung Jin [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
2015-05-15
This traditional probabilistic approach can calculate relatively accurate results. However it requires a long time because of repetitive computation due to the MC method. In addition, when informative data for statistical analysis are not sufficient or some events are mainly caused by human error, the probabilistic approach may not be possible because uncertainties of these events are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions. In order to reduce the computation time and quantify uncertainties of top events when basic events whose uncertainties are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions exist, the fuzzy uncertainty propagation based on fuzzy set theory can be applied. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy uncertainty propagation code and apply the fault tree of the core damage accident after the large loss of coolant accident (LLOCA). The fuzzy uncertainty propagation code is implemented and tested for the fault tree of the radiation release accident. We apply this code to the fault tree of the core damage accident after the LLOCA in three cases and compare the results with those computed by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation using the MC method. The results obtained by the fuzzy uncertainty propagation can be calculated in relatively short time, covering the results obtained by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation.
Chang, S. J.; Graham, W. D.; Geurink, J. S.
2016-12-01
Climate change can change the magnitude and temporal characteristics of hydrologic responses which could impact the risk and resilience for public water supply facilities. Sustainable water resource planning requires reliable projections of potential future spatiotemporal changes in the regional hydrologic responses. Public water suppliers need to improve understanding of hydrologic response uncertainties associated with the choice of General Circulation Model (GCM), reference evapotranspiration (ET0) estimation method, and future water demands estimates to understand risk and increase resilience through adaptive management strategies. The objective of this study is to quantify uncertainties for hydrologic responses in west-central Florida associated with GCM selection, ET0 estimation method, and future water demand scenarios. Nine GCMs, eight ET0 estimation methods and water demand scenarios were used to develop inputs to the calibrated Integrated Northern Tampa Bay (INTB) model which was used to simulate hydrologic responses for 30 years for each of 520 simulation scenarios. INTB model simulated streamflow and groundwater levels for all simulation scenarios were used to assess future risks for the public water supply facilities of Tampa Bay Water.
Taha, Sheena Aislinn; Matheson, Kimberly; Anisman, Hymie
2014-04-01
H1N1 reached pandemic proportions in 2009, yet considerable ambivalence was apparent concerning the threat presented and the inclination to be vaccinated. The present investigation assessed several factors, notably appraisals of the threat, intolerance of uncertainty, and familiarity with the virus, that might contribute to reactions to a potential future viral threat. Canadian adults (N = 316) provided with several scenarios regarding viral threats reported moderate feelings of anxiety, irrespective of whether the viral threat was one that was familiar versus one that was entirely unfamiliar to them (H1N1 recurrence, H5N1, a fictitious virus: D3N4). Participants appraised the stressfulness of the threats to be moderate and believed that they would have control in this situation. However, among individuals with high intolerance of uncertainty, the viral threat was accompanied by high levels of anxiety, which was mediated by aspects of appraisals, particularly control and stressfulness. In addition, among those individuals that generally appraised ambiguous life events as being stressful, the viral threat appraisals were accompanied by still greater anxiety. Given the limited response to potential viral threats, these results raise concerns that the public may be hesitant to heed recommendations should another pandemic occur.
A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties Technical Report
Campos, E [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sisterson, Douglas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
2016-12-01
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility is observationally based, and quantifying the uncertainty of its measurements is critically important. With over 300 widely differing instruments providing over 2,500 datastreams, concise expression of measurement uncertainty is quite challenging. The ARM Facility currently provides data and supporting metadata (information about the data or data quality) to its users through a number of sources. Because the continued success of the ARM Facility depends on the known quality of its measurements, the Facility relies on instrument mentors and the ARM Data Quality Office (DQO) to ensure, assess, and report measurement quality. Therefore, an easily accessible, well-articulated estimate of ARM measurement uncertainty is needed. Note that some of the instrument observations require mathematical algorithms (retrievals) to convert a measured engineering variable into a useful geophysical measurement. While those types of retrieval measurements are identified, this study does not address particular methods for retrieval uncertainty. As well, the ARM Facility also provides engineered data products, or value-added products (VAPs), based on multiple instrument measurements. This study does not include uncertainty estimates for those data products. We propose here that a total measurement uncertainty should be calculated as a function of the instrument uncertainty (calibration factors), the field uncertainty (environmental factors), and the retrieval uncertainty (algorithm factors). The study will not expand on methods for computing these uncertainties. Instead, it will focus on the practical identification, characterization, and inventory of the measurement uncertainties already available in the ARM community through the ARM instrument mentors and their ARM instrument handbooks. As a result, this study will address the first steps towards reporting ARM measurement uncertainty
Uncertainty evaluation of the thermal expansion of simulated fuel
Park, Chang Je; Kang, Kweon Ho; Song, Kee Chan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 150 Dukjin-dong, Yuseung-gu, Daejon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of)
2006-08-15
Thermal expansions of simulated fuel (SS1) are measured by using a dilatometer (DIL402C) from room temperature to 1900K. The main procedure of an uncertainty evaluation was followed by the strategy of the UO{sub 2} fuel. There exist uncertainties in the measurement, which should be quantified based on statistics. Referring to the ISO (International Organization for Standardization) guide, the uncertainties of the thermal expansion are quantified in three parts: the initial length, the length variation, and the system calibration factor. Each part is divided into two types. The A type uncertainty is derived from the statistical iterative measurement of an uncertainty and the B type uncertainty comes from a non-statistical uncertainty including a calibration and test reports. For the uncertainty evaluation, the digital calipers had been calibrated by the KOLAS (Korea Laboratory Accreditation Scheme) to obtain not only the calibration values but also the type B uncertainty. The whole system, the dilatometer (DIL402C), is composed of many complex sub-systems and in fact it is difficult to consider all the uncertainties of sub-systems. Thus, a calibration of the system was performed with a standard material (Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}), which is provided by NETZSCH. From the above standard uncertainties, the combined standard uncertainties were calculated by using the law of a propagation of an uncertainty. Finally, the expanded uncertainty was calculated by using the effective degree of freedom and the t-distribution for a given confidence level. The uncertainty of the thermal expansion for a simulated fuel was also compared with those of UO{sub 2} fuel. (author)
Van Nooyen, R.R.P.; Hrachowitz, M.; Kolechkina, A.G.
2014-01-01
Even without uncertainty about the model structure or parameters, the output of a hydrological model run still contains several sources of uncertainty. These are: measurement errors affecting the input, the transition from continuous time and space to discrete time and space, which causes loss of in
Capel, H.W.; Cramer, J.S.; Estevez-Uscanga, O.
1995-01-01
'Uncertainty and chance' is a subject with a broad span, in that there is no academic discipline or walk of life that is not beset by uncertainty and chance. In this book a range of approaches is represented by authors from varied disciplines: natural sciences, mathematics, social sciences and medic
Guide for Uncertainty Communication
Wardekker, J.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/306644398; Kloprogge, P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/306644312; Petersen, A.C.; Janssen, P.H.M.; van der Sluijs, J.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073427489
2013-01-01
Dealing with uncertainty, in terms of analysis and communication, is an important and distinct topic for PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Without paying adequate attention to the role and implications of uncertainty, research and assessment results may be of limited value and could
Computing with Epistemic Uncertainty
2015-01-01
modified the input uncertainties in any way. And by avoiding the need for simulation, various assumptions and selection of specific sampling...strategies that may affect results are also avoided . According with the Principle of Maximum Uncertainty , epistemic intervals represent the highest input...
Kennedy, Theodore A.
2013-01-01
Identifying areas of scientific uncertainty is a critical step in the adaptive management process (Walters, 1986; Runge, Converse, and Lyons, 2011). To identify key areas of scientific uncertainty regarding biologic resources of importance to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) convened Knowledge Assessment Workshops in May and July 2005. One of the products of these workshops was a set of strategic science questions that highlighted key areas of scientific uncertainty. These questions were intended to frame and guide the research and monitoring activities conducted by the GCMRC in subsequent years. Questions were developed collaboratively by scientists and managers. The questions were not all of equal importance or merit—some questions were large scale and others were small scale. Nevertheless, these questions were adopted and have guided the research and monitoring efforts conducted by the GCMRC since 2005. A new round of Knowledge Assessment Workshops was convened by the GCMRC in June and October 2011 and January 2012 to determine whether the research and monitoring activities conducted since 2005 had successfully answered some of the strategic science questions. Oral presentations by scientists highlighting research findings were a centerpiece of all three of the 2011–12 workshops. Each presenter was also asked to provide an answer to the strategic science questions that were specific to the presenter’s research area. One limitation of this approach is that these answers represented the views of the handful of scientists who developed the presentations, and, as such, they did not incorporate other perspectives. Thus, the answers provided by presenters at the Knowledge Assessment Workshops may not have accurately captured the sentiments of the broader group of scientists involved in research and monitoring of the Colorado River in Glen and Grand Canyons. Yet a fundamental ingredient of
Liu Baoding [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China). Uncertainty Theory Lab.
2007-07-01
Uncertainty theory is a branch of mathematics based on normality, monotonicity, self-duality, and countable subadditivity axioms. The goal of uncertainty theory is to study the behavior of uncertain phenomena such as fuzziness and randomness. The main topics include probability theory, credibility theory, and chance theory. For this new edition the entire text has been totally rewritten. More importantly, the chapters on chance theory and uncertainty theory are completely new. This book provides a self-contained, comprehensive and up-to-date presentation of uncertainty theory. The purpose is to equip the readers with an axiomatic approach to deal with uncertainty. Mathematicians, researchers, engineers, designers, and students in the field of mathematics, information science, operations research, industrial engineering, computer science, artificial intelligence, and management science will find this work a stimulating and useful reference. (orig.)
Economic uncertainty and econophysics
Schinckus, Christophe
2009-10-01
The objective of this paper is to provide a methodological link between econophysics and economics. I will study a key notion of both fields: uncertainty and the ways of thinking about it developed by the two disciplines. After having presented the main economic theories of uncertainty (provided by Knight, Keynes and Hayek), I show how this notion is paradoxically excluded from the economic field. In economics, uncertainty is totally reduced by an a priori Gaussian framework-in contrast to econophysics, which does not use a priori models because it works directly on data. Uncertainty is then not shaped by a specific model, and is partially and temporally reduced as models improve. This way of thinking about uncertainty has echoes in the economic literature. By presenting econophysics as a Knightian method, and a complementary approach to a Hayekian framework, this paper shows that econophysics can be methodologically justified from an economic point of view.
Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)
Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Preston, Dean L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2015-03-19
This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.
Minimum uncertainty and squeezing in diffusion processes and stochastic quantization
Demartino, S.; Desiena, S.; Illuminati, Fabrizo; Vitiello, Giuseppe
1994-01-01
We show that uncertainty relations, as well as minimum uncertainty coherent and squeezed states, are structural properties for diffusion processes. Through Nelson stochastic quantization we derive the stochastic image of the quantum mechanical coherent and squeezed states.
Rahman, A.; Tsai, F.T.-C.; White, C.D.; Willson, C.S.
2008-01-01
This study investigates capture zone uncertainty that relates to the coupled semivariogram uncertainty of hydrogeological and geophysical data. Semivariogram uncertainty is represented by the uncertainty in structural parameters (range, sill, and nugget). We used the beta distribution function to derive the prior distributions of structural parameters. The probability distributions of structural parameters were further updated through the Bayesian approach with the Gaussian likelihood functions. Cokriging of noncollocated pumping test data and electrical resistivity data was conducted to better estimate hydraulic conductivity through autosemivariograms and pseudo-cross-semivariogram. Sensitivities of capture zone variability with respect to the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity, porosity and aquifer thickness were analyzed using ANOVA. The proposed methodology was applied to the analysis of capture zone uncertainty at the Chicot aquifer in Southwestern Louisiana, where a regional groundwater flow model was developed. MODFLOW-MODPATH was adopted to delineate the capture zone. The ANOVA results showed that both capture zone area and compactness were sensitive to hydraulic conductivity variation. We concluded that the capture zone uncertainty due to the semivariogram uncertainty is much higher than that due to the kriging uncertainty for given semivariograms. In other words, the sole use of conditional variances of kriging may greatly underestimate the flow response uncertainty. Semivariogram uncertainty should also be taken into account in the uncertainty analysis. ?? 2008 ASCE.
Sciacchitano, Andrea; Wieneke, Bernhard
2016-08-01
This paper discusses the propagation of the instantaneous uncertainty of PIV measurements to statistical and instantaneous quantities of interest derived from the velocity field. The expression of the uncertainty of vorticity, velocity divergence, mean value and Reynolds stresses is derived. It is shown that the uncertainty of vorticity and velocity divergence requires the knowledge of the spatial correlation between the error of the x and y particle image displacement, which depends upon the measurement spatial resolution. The uncertainty of statistical quantities is often dominated by the random uncertainty due to the finite sample size and decreases with the square root of the effective number of independent samples. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to assess the accuracy of the uncertainty propagation formulae. Furthermore, three experimental assessments are carried out. In the first experiment, a turntable is used to simulate a rigid rotation flow field. The estimated uncertainty of the vorticity is compared with the actual vorticity error root-mean-square, with differences between the two quantities within 5-10% for different interrogation window sizes and overlap factors. A turbulent jet flow is investigated in the second experimental assessment. The reference velocity, which is used to compute the reference value of the instantaneous flow properties of interest, is obtained with an auxiliary PIV system, which features a higher dynamic range than the measurement system. Finally, the uncertainty quantification of statistical quantities is assessed via PIV measurements in a cavity flow. The comparison between estimated uncertainty and actual error demonstrates the accuracy of the proposed uncertainty propagation methodology.
Infrastructure Requirements for an Expanded Fuel Ethanol Industry
Reynolds, Robert E. [Downstream Alternatives, Inc., South Bend, IN (United States)
2002-01-15
This report provides technical information specifically related to ethanol transportation, distribution, and marketing issues. This report required analysis of the infrastructure requirements for an expanded ethanol industry.
Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?
Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert
2016-06-01
of experience. Two hundred forty-two (34%) members completed the survey. We found no differences between responders and nonresponders. Each survey item measured its own trait better than any of the other traits. Recognition of uncertainty (0.70) and confidence bias (0.75) had relatively high Cronbach alpha levels, meaning that the questions making up these traits are closely related and probably measure the same construct. This was lower for statistical understanding (0.48) and trust in the orthopaedic evidence base (0.37). Subsequently, combining each trait's individual questions, we calculated a 0 to 10 score for each trait. The mean recognition of uncertainty score was 3.2 ± 1.4. Recognition of uncertainty in daily practice did not vary by years in practice (0-5 years, 3.2 ± 1.3; 6-10 years, 2.9 ± 1.3; 11-20 years, 3.2 ± 1.4; 21-30 years, 3.3 ± 1.6 years; p = 0.51), but overconfidence bias did correlate with years in practice (0-5 years, 6.2 ± 1.4; 6-10 years, 7.1 ± 1.3; 11-20 years, 7.4 ± 1.4; 21-30 years, 7.1 ± 1.2 years; p coefficient, -0.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.0 to -0.055; partial R(2), 0.021; p = 0.029), belief in God or any other deity/deities (β, -0.57; 95% CI, -1.0 to -0.11; partial R(2), 0.026; p = 0.015), greater confidence bias (β, -0.26; 95% CI, -0.37 to -0.14; partial R(2), 0.084; p definitive evidence. If patients want to be informed of the areas of uncertainty and surgeon-to-surgeon variation relevant to their care, it seems possible that a low recognition of uncertainty and surgeon confidence bias might hinder adequately informing patients, informed decisions, and consent. Moreover, limited recognition of uncertainty is associated with modifiable factors such as confidence bias, trust in orthopaedic evidence base, and statistical understanding. Perhaps improved statistical teaching in residency, journal clubs to improve the critique of evidence and awareness of bias, and acknowledgment of knowledge gaps at courses and
The Quantization Conditions in Curved Spacetime and Uncertainty Driven Inflation
Camp, Paul J
2014-01-01
An alternative inflationary model is proposed predicated upon a consideration of the form of the uncertainty principle in a curved background spacetime. An argument is presented suggesting a possible curvature dependence in the correct commutator relations for a quantum field in a classical background which cannot be deduced by simply extrapolation from the flat spacetime theory. To assess the possible consequences of this dependence, we apply the idea to a scalar field in a closed Friedmann-Robertson-Walker background, using a simple model for the curvature dependence (along the way, a previous result obtained by Bunch (1980) for the adiabatically expanded wave function is corrected). The result is a time-dependent cosmological constant, producing a vast amount of inflation that is independent of the mass of the matter field or its effective potential. Furthermore, it is seen that the field modes are initially zero for all wavelengths and come into being as the universe evolves. In this sense, the universe c...
Gillund, Frøydis; Kjølberg, Kamilla A; von Krauss, Martin Krayer; Myhr, Anne I
2008-12-15
The Walker and Harremoës (W&H) uncertainty framework is a tool to systematically identify scientific uncertainty. We applied the W&H uncertainty framework to elicit scientists' judgements of potential sources of uncertainty associated with the use of DNA vaccination in aquaculture. DNA vaccination is considered a promising solution to combat pathological fish diseases. There is, however, lack of knowledge regarding its ecological and social implications. Our findings indicate that scientists are open and aware of a number of uncertainties associated with DNA vaccination e.g. with regard to immune response, degradation and distribution of the DNA plasmid after injection and environmental release, and consider most of these uncertainties to be adequately reduced through more research. We proceed to discuss our experience of using the W&H uncertainty framework. Some challenges related to the application of the framework were recognised. This was especially related to the respondents' unfamiliarity with the concepts used and their lack of experience in discussing qualitative aspects of uncertainties. As we see it, the W&H framework should be considered as a useful tool to stimulate reflection on uncertainty and an important first step in a more extensive process of including and properly dealing with uncertainties in science and policymaking.
Chatterjee, Samrat; Tipireddy, Ramakrishna; Oster, Matthew R.; Halappanavar, Mahantesh
2016-09-16
Securing cyber-systems on a continual basis against a multitude of adverse events is a challenging undertaking. Game-theoretic approaches, that model actions of strategic decision-makers, are increasingly being applied to address cybersecurity resource allocation challenges. Such game-based models account for multiple player actions and represent cyber attacker payoffs mostly as point utility estimates. Since a cyber-attacker’s payoff generation mechanism is largely unknown, appropriate representation and propagation of uncertainty is a critical task. In this paper we expand on prior work and focus on operationalizing the probabilistic uncertainty quantification framework, for a notional cyber system, through: 1) representation of uncertain attacker and system-related modeling variables as probability distributions and mathematical intervals, and 2) exploration of uncertainty propagation techniques including two-phase Monte Carlo sampling and probability bounds analysis.
Bassett, B A [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth (United Kingdom)
2005-07-29
The cosmos is an awfully big place and there is no better guide to its vast expanse and fascinating nooks and crannies than John Barrow. A professor of mathematical sciences at Cambridge University, Barrow embodies that rare combination of highly polished writer and expert scientist. His deft touch brings together the disparate threads of human knowledge and weaves them into a tapestry as rich and interesting for the expert as it is for the layperson. The Artful Universe Expanded is an updated edition of this popular book first published in 1995. It explores the deeply profound manner in which natural law and the nature of the cosmos have moulded and shaped us, our cultures and the very form of our arts and music-a new type of 'cosmic' anthropology. The main themes Barrow chooses for revealing this new anthropology are the subjects of evolution, the size of things, the heavens and the nature of music. The book is a large, eclectic repository of knowledge often unavailable to the layperson, hidden in esoteric libraries around the world. It rivals The Da Vinci Code for entertainment value and insights, but this time it is Nature's code that is revealed. It is rare indeed to find common threads drawn through topics as diverse as The Beetles, Bach and Beethoven or between Jackson Pollock, the Aztecs, Kant, Picasso, Byzantine mosaics, uranium-235 and the helix nebula. Barrow unerringly binds them together, presenting them in a stimulating, conversational style that belies the amount of time that must have gone into researching this book. Dip into it at random, or read it from cover to cover, but do read it. The Artful Universe Expanded is an entertaining antidote to the oft-lamented pressures to know more and more about less and less and the apparently inexorable march of specialization. On reading this book one can, for a short time at least, hold in one's mind a vision that unifies science, art and culture and glimpse a universal tapestry of great
Uncertainties in landscape analysis and ecosystem service assessment.
Hou, Y; Burkhard, B; Müller, F
2013-09-01
Landscape analysis and ecosystem service assessment have drawn increasing concern from research and application at the landscape scale. Thanks to the continuously emerging assessments as well as studies aiming at evaluation method improvement, policy makers and landscape managers have an increasing interest in integrating ecosystem services into their decisions. However, the plausible assessments carry numerous sources of uncertainties, which regrettably tend to be ignored or disregarded by the actors or researchers. In order to cope with uncertainties and make them more transparent for landscape managers, we demonstrate them by reviewing literature, describing an example and proposing approaches for uncertainty analysis. Additionally, we conclude with potential actions to reduce the insecurities accompanying landscape analysis and ecosystem service assessments. As for landscape analysis, the fundamental uncertainty origins are landscape complexity and methodological uncertainties. Concerning the uncertainty sources of ecosystem service assessments, the complexity of the natural system, respondents' preferences and technical problems play essential roles. By analyzing the assessment process, we find that initial data uncertainty pervades the whole assessment and argue that the limited knowledge about the complexity of ecosystems is the focal origin of uncertainties. For analyzing uncertainties in assessments, we propose systems analysis, scenario simulation and the comparison method as promising strategies. To reduce uncertainties, we assume that actions should integrate continuous learning, expanding respondent numbers and sources, considering representativeness, improving and standardizing assessment methods and optimizing spatial and geobiophysical data. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
OCT Expanded Clinical Data Analysis
Van Baalen, Mary; Tafreshi, Ali; Patel, Nimesh; Young, Millennia; Mason, Sara; Otto, Christian; Samuels, Brian; Koslovsky, Matthew; Schaefer, Caroline; Taiym, Wafa;
2017-01-01
Vision changes identified in long duration space fliers has led to a more comprehensive clinical monitoring protocol. Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) was recently implemented on board the International Space Station in 2013. NASA is collaborating with Heidelberg Engineering to expand our current OCT data analysis capability by implementing a volumetric approach. Volumetric maps will be created by combining the circle scan, the disc block scan, and the radial scan. This assessment may provide additional information about the optic nerve and further characterize changes related microgravity exposure. We will discuss challenges with collection and analysis of OCT data, present the results of this reanalysis and outline the potential benefits and limitations of the additional data.
Improved evaluation of measurement uncertainty from sampling by inclusion of between-sampler bias using sampling proficiency testing.
Ramsey, Michael H; Geelhoed, Bastiaan; Wood, Roger; Damant, Andrew P
2011-04-01
A realistic estimate of the uncertainty of a measurement result is essential for its reliable interpretation. Recent methods for such estimation include the contribution to uncertainty from the sampling process, but they only include the random and not the systematic effects. Sampling Proficiency Tests (SPTs) have been used previously to assess the performance of samplers, but the results can also be used to evaluate measurement uncertainty, including the systematic effects. A new SPT conducted on the determination of moisture in fresh butter is used to exemplify how SPT results can be used not only to score samplers but also to estimate uncertainty. The comparison between uncertainty evaluated within- and between-samplers is used to demonstrate that sampling bias is causing the estimates of expanded relative uncertainty to rise by over a factor of two (from 0.39% to 0.87%) in this case. General criteria are given for the experimental design and the sampling target that are required to apply this approach to measurements on any material.
利用不确定性关系计算夸克-胶子等离子体的寿命%To Calculate the Lifetime of Quark-gluon Plasma with Uncertainty Relation
王栋; 傅永平
2013-01-01
In this paper, the Uncertainty Relation is used to calculate the lifetime of quark-gluon plasma, this method avoids the complicated theoretical derivation, and the physical meaning and physical process is very clear.%利用不确定性关系可以计算出夸克-胶子等离子体的寿命，这种方法既避免了复杂的理论推导，又明确了物理过程和物理意义。
Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)
Jordan, D.; Kurtz, S.; Hansen, C.
2014-04-01
Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.
Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation in Groundwater Modelling
Jensen, Jacob Birk
The data basis on which groundwater models are constructed is in general very incomplete, and this leads to uncertainty in model outcome. Groundwater models form the basis for many, often costly decisions and if these are to be made on solid grounds, the uncertainty attached to model results must...... be quantified. This study was motivated by the need to estimate the uncertainty involved in groundwater models.Chapter 2 presents an integrated surface/subsurface unstructured finite difference model that was developed and applied to a synthetic case study.The following two chapters concern calibration...... and uncertainty estimation. Essential issues relating to calibration are discussed. The classical regression methods are described; however, the main focus is on the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The next two chapters describe case studies in which the GLUE methodology...
Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)
Jordan, D.; Kurtz, S.; Hansen, C.
2014-04-01
Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.
Uncertainty, rationality, and agency
Hoek, Wiebe van der
2006-01-01
Goes across 'classical' borderlines of disciplinesUnifies logic, game theory, and epistemics and studies them in an agent-settingCombines classical and novel approaches to uncertainty, rationality, and agency
Introduction to uncertainty quantification
Sullivan, T J
2015-01-01
Uncertainty quantification is a topic of increasing practical importance at the intersection of applied mathematics, statistics, computation, and numerous application areas in science and engineering. This text provides a framework in which the main objectives of the field of uncertainty quantification are defined, and an overview of the range of mathematical methods by which they can be achieved. Complete with exercises throughout, the book will equip readers with both theoretical understanding and practical experience of the key mathematical and algorithmic tools underlying the treatment of uncertainty in modern applied mathematics. Students and readers alike are encouraged to apply the mathematical methods discussed in this book to their own favourite problems to understand their strengths and weaknesses, also making the text suitable as a self-study. This text is designed as an introduction to uncertainty quantification for senior undergraduate and graduate students with a mathematical or statistical back...
Menger, Fredric M
2010-09-01
It might come as a disappointment to some chemists, but just as there are uncertainties in physics and mathematics, there are some chemistry questions we may never know the answer to either, suggests Fredric M. Menger.
Lemaire, Maurice
2014-01-01
Science is a quest for certainty, but lack of certainty is the driving force behind all of its endeavors. This book, specifically, examines the uncertainty of technological and industrial science. Uncertainty and Mechanics studies the concepts of mechanical design in an uncertain setting and explains engineering techniques for inventing cost-effective products. Though it references practical applications, this is a book about ideas and potential advances in mechanical science.
Expanding contraceptive options.
1989-01-01
The goals of Family Health International (FHI) have been to introduce a variety of birth control options to people in developing countries, and to provide information to the user on the advantages and disadvantages of each method. FHI has worked with many developing countries in clinical trials of established as well as new contraceptive methods. These trials played an important part in making 2 sterilization procedures, laparoscopy and minilaparotomy popular for women. Further research improved the methods and have made them the most popular in the world, chosen by 130 million users. FHI is doing clinical trials on a new IUD, that is a copper bearing T-shaped device called the TCu380A. they have collected data on over 10,000 women using IUD's and early analysis indicates TCu380A is more effective than others. FHI is also evaluating devices such as Norplant that will prevent pregnancy up to 5 years by implanting the capsules in the arm. More than 8,000 women are being tested to determine the acceptability of implants in different geographical locations. Other research groups are doing work in 10 additional countries: Bangladesh will expand its program to 24,000 women and Nepal to 8,000 women. Trials are also being conducted on progestogen pills, since they do not lesson the volume of milk in breast feeding. FHI has also worked to introduce creative community-based distribution channels. In one case, specially trained health workers delivered contraceptives door-to-door in over 150,000 households. They found that 2 of 3 women accepted the pills and in a follow up survey 90% were still using them. FHI is now focusing on ways to improve moving new contraceptives from clinical testing on everyday use. They will coordinate training programs, educational material, media campaigns, and efforts with other international organizations, government agencies, and family planning groups.
Barrow, John D.
2005-07-01
Our love of art, writes John Barrow, is the end product of millions of years of evolution. How we react to a beautiful painting or symphony draws upon instincts laid down long before humans existed. Now, in this enhanced edition of the highly popular The Artful Universe , Barrow further explores the close ties between our aesthetic appreciation and the basic nature of the Universe. Barrow argues that the laws of the Universe have imprinted themselves upon our thoughts and actions in subtle and unexpected ways. Why do we like certain types of art or music? What games and puzzles do we find challenging? Why do so many myths and legends have common elements? In this eclectic and entertaining survey, Barrow answers these questions and more as he explains how the landscape of the Universe has influenced the development of philosophy and mythology, and how millions of years of evolutionary history have fashioned our attraction to certain patterns of sound and color. Barrow casts the story of human creativity and thought in a fascinating light, considering such diverse topics as our instinct for language, the origins and uses of color in nature, why we divide time into intervals as we do, the sources of our appreciation of landscape painting, and whether computer-generated fractal art is really art. Drawing on a wide variety of examples, from the theological questions raised by St. Augustine and C.S. Lewis to the relationship between the pure math of Pythagoras and the music of the Beatles, The Artful Universe Expanded covers new ground and enters a wide-ranging debate about the meaning and significance of the links between art and science.
Treatment of Uncertainties in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard
Thio, H. K.
2012-12-01
Over the last few years, we have developed a framework for developing probabilistic tsunami inundation maps, which includes comprehensive quantification of earthquake recurrence as well as uncertainties, and applied it to the development of a tsunami hazard map of California. The various uncertainties in tsunami source and propagation models are an integral part of a comprehensive probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA), and often drive the hazard at low probability levels (i.e. long return periods). There is no unique manner in which uncertainties are included in the analysis although in general, we distinguish between "natural" or aleatory variability, such as slip distribution and event magnitude, and uncertainties due to an incomplete understanding of the behavior of the earth, called epistemic uncertainties, such as scaling relations and rupture segmentation. Aleatory uncertainties are typically included through integration over distribution functions based on regression analyses, whereas epistemic uncertainties are included using logic trees. We will discuss how the different uncertainties were included in our recent probabilistic tsunami inundation maps for California, and their relative importance on the final results. Including these uncertainties in offshore exceedance waveheights is straightforward, but the problem becomes more complicated once the non-linearity of near-shore propagation and inundation are encountered. By using the probabilistic off-shore waveheights as input level for the inundation models, the uncertainties up to that point can be included in the final maps. PTHA provides a consistent analysis of tsunami hazard and will become an important tool in diverse areas such as coastal engineering and land use planning. The inclusive nature of the analysis, where few assumptions are made a-priori as to which sources are significant, means that a single analysis can provide a comprehensive view of the hazard and its dominant sources
Uncertainty Propagation for Terrestrial Mobile Laser Scanner
Mezian, c.; Vallet, Bruno; Soheilian, Bahman; Paparoditis, Nicolas
2016-06-01
Laser scanners are used more and more in mobile mapping systems. They provide 3D point clouds that are used for object reconstruction and registration of the system. For both of those applications, uncertainty analysis of 3D points is of great interest but rarely investigated in the literature. In this paper we present a complete pipeline that takes into account all the sources of uncertainties and allows to compute a covariance matrix per 3D point. The sources of uncertainties are laser scanner, calibration of the scanner in relation to the vehicle and direct georeferencing system. We suppose that all the uncertainties follow the Gaussian law. The variances of the laser scanner measurements (two angles and one distance) are usually evaluated by the constructors. This is also the case for integrated direct georeferencing devices. Residuals of the calibration process were used to estimate the covariance matrix of the 6D transformation between scanner laser and the vehicle system. Knowing the variances of all sources of uncertainties, we applied uncertainty propagation technique to compute the variance-covariance matrix of every obtained 3D point. Such an uncertainty analysis enables to estimate the impact of different laser scanners and georeferencing devices on the quality of obtained 3D points. The obtained uncertainty values were illustrated using error ellipsoids on different datasets.
On the worst case uncertainty and its evaluation
Fabbiano, L.; Giaquinto, N.; Savino, M.; Vacca, G.
2016-02-01
The paper is a review on the worst case uncertainty (WCU) concept, neglected in the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurements (GUM), but necessary for a correct uncertainty assessment in a number of practical cases involving distribution with compact support. First, it is highlighted that the knowledge of the WCU is necessary to choose a sensible coverage factor, associated to a sensible coverage probability: the Maximum Acceptable Coverage Factor (MACF) is introduced as a convenient index to guide this choice. Second, propagation rules for the worst-case uncertainty are provided in matrix and scalar form. It is highlighted that when WCU propagation cannot be computed, the Monte Carlo approach is the only way to obtain a correct expanded uncertainty assessment, in contrast to what can be inferred from the GUM. Third, examples of applications of the formulae to ordinary instruments and measurements are given. Also an example taken from the GUM is discussed, underlining some inconsistencies in it.
Robertson-Schrödinger formulation of Ozawa's uncertainty principle
Bastos, Catarina; Bernardini, Alex E.; Bertolami, Orfeu; Costa Dias, Nuno; Nuno Prata, João
2015-07-01
A more general measurement disturbance uncertainty principle is presented in a Robertson-Schrödinger formulation. It is shown that it is stronger and having nicer properties than Ozawa's uncertainty relations. In particular it is invariant under symplectic transformations. One shows also that there are states of the probe (measuring device) that saturate the matrix formulation of measurement disturbance uncertainty principle.
Robertson-Schr\\"odinger formulation of Ozawa's Uncertainty Principle
Bastos, Catarina; Bertolami, O; Dias, N C; Prata, J N
2014-01-01
A more general measurement disturbance uncertainty principle is presented in a Robertson-Schr\\"odinger formulation. It is shown that it is stronger and having nicer properties than Ozawa's uncertainty relations. In particular is invariant under symplectic transformations. One shows also that there are states of the probe (measuring device) that saturate the matrix formulation of measurement disturbance uncertainty principle.
Aspects of complementarity and uncertainty
Vathsan, Radhika; Qureshi, Tabish
2016-08-01
The two-slit experiment with quantum particles provides many insights into the behavior of quantum mechanics, including Bohr’s complementarity principle. Here, we analyze Einstein’s recoiling slit version of the experiment and show how the inevitable entanglement between the particle and the recoiling slit as a which-way detector is responsible for complementarity. We derive the Englert-Greenberger-Yasin duality from this entanglement, which can also be thought of as a consequence of sum-uncertainty relations between certain complementary observables of the recoiling slit. Thus, entanglement is an integral part of the which-way detection process, and so is uncertainty, though in a completely different way from that envisaged by Bohr and Einstein.
Bank Directors’ Perceptions of Expanded Auditor's Reports
Boolaky, Pran Krishansing; Quick, Reiner
2016-01-01
of expanded audit reports, namely information on the assurance level, materiality levels and key audit matters (KAM), on bank director perceptions of the quality of the financial statements, the audit and the audit report, as well as on their credit approval decisions. We conduct an experiment involving......Subsequent to the financial crisis, standard setters developed suggestions for enhancing the audit function, in order to increase financial stability. One related idea is to expand the audit report disclosed to the public, to ensure that it is fit for purpose. This study investigates the impact...... a sample of 105 bank directors and use ANCOVA to determine the predictors of bank director perceptions and decisions. Our findings suggest that disclosing the assurance level has a significantly positive impact. In contrast, we cannot demonstrate a material effect of expanding the audit report to include...
Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties
Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen
2009-01-01
This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes......-based graphs which function as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project....
Quantum Uncertainty and Fundamental Interactions
Tosto S.
2013-04-01
Full Text Available The paper proposes a simplified theoretical approach to infer some essential concepts on the fundamental interactions between charged particles and their relative strengths at comparable energies by exploiting the quantum uncertainty only. The worth of the present approach relies on the way of obtaining the results, rather than on the results themselves: concepts today acknowledged as fingerprints of the electroweak and strong interactions appear indeed rooted in the same theoretical frame including also the basic principles of special and general relativity along with the gravity force.
Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture
Vermeulen, Sonja Joy; Challinor, Andrew J.; Thornton, Philip K.
2013-01-01
scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making......We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder...
Market uncertainty; Markedsusikkerhet
Doorman, Gerard; Holtan, Jon Anders; Mo, Birger; Groenli, Helle; Haaland, Magnar; Grinden, Bjoern
1997-04-10
In Norway, the project ``Market uncertainty`` has been in progress for over two years and resulted in increased skill in the use of the Grid System Operation Model. This report classifies some of the factors which lead to uncertainties in the electric power market. It has been examined whether these factors should be, or can be, modelled in the available simulation models. Some of the factors have been further considered and methods of modelling the associated uncertainties have been examined. It is concluded that (1) There is a need for automatic simulation of several scenarios in the model, and these scenarios should incorporate probability parameters, (2) At first it is most important that one can handle uncertainties in fuel prices and demand, (3) Market uncertainty which is due to irrational behaviour should be dealt with in a separate model. The difference between real and simulated prices should be analysed and modelled with a time series model, (4) Risk should be included in the Vansimtap model by way of feedback from simulations, (5) The marginal values of stored water as calculated by means of the various methods in use should be compared systematically. 9 refs., 16 figs., 5 tabs.
Expanding discourse repertoires with hybridity
Kelly, Gregory J.
2012-09-01
In "Hybrid discourse practice and science learning" Kamberelis and Wehunt present a theoretically rich argument about the potential of hybrid discourses for science learning. These discourses draw from different forms of "talk, social practice, and material practices" to create interactions that are "intertextually complex" and "interactionally dynamic." The hybrid discourse practices are described as involving the dynamic interplay of at least three key elements: "the lamination of multiple cultural frames, the shifting relations between people and their discourse, and the shifting power relations between and among people." Each of these elements requires a respective unit of analysis and are often mutually reinforcing. The authors present a theoretically cogent argument for the study of hybrid discourse practices and identify the potential such discourses may have for science education. This theoretical development leads to an analysis of spoken and written discourse around a set of educational events concerning the investigation of owl pellets by two fifth grade students, their classmates, and teacher. Two discourse segments are presented and analyzed by the authors in detail. The first is a discourse analysis of the dissection of the owl pellet by two students, Kyle and Max. The second analysis examines the science report of these same two students. In this article, I pose a number of questions about the study with the hope that by doing so I expand the conversation around the insightful analysis presented.
Heacox, William D.
2015-11-01
Introducing the Universe; Part I. Conceptual Foundations: 1. Newtonian cosmology; 2. General relativity; 3. Relativistic cosmology; Part II. General Relativity: 4. General covariance; 5. Equivalence principle; 6. Space-time curvature; 7. Einstein field equations of gravitation; Part III. Universal Expansion: 8. Cosmological field equations; 9. Cosmography; 10. Expansion dynamics; Part IV. Expansion Models: 11. Radiation; 12. Matter; 13. Dark energy; 14. Observational constraints; 15. Concordance cosmological model; Part V. Expansion History: 16. Particle era; 17. Plasma era; 18. Galaxy era; 19. Afterword: the new modern cosmology; Part VI: Appendices; Bibliography; Index.
Dealing with Uncertainties in Initial Orbit Determination
Armellin, Roberto; Di Lizia, Pierluigi; Zanetti, Renato
2015-01-01
A method to deal with uncertainties in initial orbit determination (IOD) is presented. This is based on the use of Taylor differential algebra (DA) to nonlinearly map the observation uncertainties from the observation space to the state space. When a minimum set of observations is available DA is used to expand the solution of the IOD problem in Taylor series with respect to measurement errors. When more observations are available high order inversion tools are exploited to obtain full state pseudo-observations at a common epoch. The mean and covariance of these pseudo-observations are nonlinearly computed by evaluating the expectation of high order Taylor polynomials. Finally, a linear scheme is employed to update the current knowledge of the orbit. Angles-only observations are considered and simplified Keplerian dynamics adopted to ease the explanation. Three test cases of orbit determination of artificial satellites in different orbital regimes are presented to discuss the feature and performances of the proposed methodology.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents relative seabird abundance predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This raster was derived...
Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.
2013-12-01
Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.
van der Geer, Eric; van Tuijl, Harrie F J M; Rutte, Christel G
2009-11-01
In healthcare, performance indicators are increasingly used to measure and control quality and efficiency of care-providing teams. This article demonstrates that when controllability is emphasized during indicator development, the level of task uncertainty influences the type of resulting performance indicators. We report findings from a field study in a medical rehabilitation centre in The Netherlands, where four low task uncertain teams ('hand trauma', 'heart failure', 'amputation', 'chronic pain'), and four high task uncertain teams ('children with developmental coordination disorders (DCD)', 'parkinson's disease', 'young children (0-4 years) with developmental disorders', and 'acquired brain injuries') participated in the development of performance indicators using the Productivity Measurement and Enhancement System (ProMES) method. Results show that teams higher on task uncertainty developed relatively more process indicators compared to outcome indicators, whereas the reverse was true for teams lower on task uncertainty. Additionally, process indicators developed by high task uncertain teams were more of a problem solving nature than process indicators developed by low task uncertain teams, which had a more procedural character. The study expands existing knowledge by providing a framework which explicates the task processes to be executed under different levels of task uncertainty, and in line with that appropriate performance indicators for healthcare teams.
Sustainability and uncertainty
Jensen, Karsten Klint
2007-01-01
and infers prescriptions from this requirement. These two approaches may conflict, and in this conflict the top-down approach has the upper hand, ethically speaking. However, the implicit goal in the top-down approach of justice between generations needs to be refined in several dimensions. But even given...... a clarified ethical goal, disagreements can arise. At present we do not know what substitutions will be possible in the future. This uncertainty clearly affects the prescriptions that follow from the measure of sustainability. Consequently, decisions about how to make future agriculture sustainable...... are decisions under uncertainty. There might be different judgments on likelihoods; but even given some set of probabilities, there might be disagreement on the right level of precaution in face of the uncertainty....
SAGD optimization under uncertainty
Gossuin, J.; Naccache, P. [Schlumberger SIS, Abingdon (United Kingdom); Bailley, W.; Couet, B. [Schlumberger-Doll Research, Cambridge, MA, (United States)
2011-07-01
In the heavy oil industry, the steam assisted gravity drainage process is often used to enhance oil recovery but this is a costly method and ways to make it more efficient are needed. Multiple methods have been developed to optimize the SAGD process but none of them explicitly considered uncertainty. This paper presents an optimization method in the presence of reservoir uncertainty. This process was tested on an SAGD model where three equi-probable geological models are possible. Preparatory steps were first performed to identify key variables and the optimization model was then proposed. The method was shown to be successful in handling a significant number of uncertainties, optimizing the SAGD process and preventing premature steam channels that can choke production. The optimization method presented herein was successfully applied to an SAGD process and was shown to provide better strategies than sensitivity analysis while handling more complex problems.
Expanding Schumann's Pidginization Hypothesis.
Andersen, Roger W.
1979-01-01
Proposes a revision and expansion of Schumann's (1978b) model of pidginization as it relates to second language learning. A distinction is made between sociocultural aspects of the pidginization cycle and the acquisitional processes of pidginization, creolization, and decreolization. (Author/AM)
Expanding the Methodological Imagination
Fine, Michelle
2007-01-01
This article contains reflections provoked by the articles in this volume of "The Counseling Psychologist." As a relative outsider to counseling psychology, the author thoroughly enjoyed immersing herself in these contributions and then extracting a set of thoughts inspired by the writers.
Hubble, Hubble's law and the expanding universe
Bagla, J. S.
2009-01-01
Hubble's name is associated closely with the idea of an expanding universe as he discovered the relation between the recession velocity and distances of galaxies. Hubble also did a lot of pioneering work on the distribution of galaxies in the universe. In this article we take a look at Hubble's law and discuss how it relates with models of the universe. We also give a historical perspective of the discoveries that led to the Hubble's law.
Hubble, Hubble's law and the expanding universe
Bagla, J. S.
2009-01-01
Hubble's name is associated closely with the idea of an expanding universe as he discovered the relation between the recession velocity and distances of galaxies. Hubble also did a lot of pioneering work on the distribution of galaxies in the universe. In this article we take a look at Hubble's law and discuss how it relates with models of the universe. We also give a historical perspective of the discoveries that led to the Hubble's law.
Representing uncertainty on model analysis plots
Smith, Trevor I.
2016-12-01
Model analysis provides a mechanism for representing student learning as measured by standard multiple-choice surveys. The model plot contains information regarding both how likely students in a particular class are to choose the correct answer and how likely they are to choose an answer consistent with a well-documented conceptual model. Unfortunately, Bao's original presentation of the model plot did not include a way to represent uncertainty in these measurements. I present details of a method to add error bars to model plots by expanding the work of Sommer and Lindell. I also provide a template for generating model plots with error bars.
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael
2005-01-01
As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c
Orbital State Uncertainty Realism
Horwood, J.; Poore, A. B.
2012-09-01
Fundamental to the success of the space situational awareness (SSA) mission is the rigorous inclusion of uncertainty in the space surveillance network. The *proper characterization of uncertainty* in the orbital state of a space object is a common requirement to many SSA functions including tracking and data association, resolution of uncorrelated tracks (UCTs), conjunction analysis and probability of collision, sensor resource management, and anomaly detection. While tracking environments, such as air and missile defense, make extensive use of Gaussian and local linearity assumptions within algorithms for uncertainty management, space surveillance is inherently different due to long time gaps between updates, high misdetection rates, nonlinear and non-conservative dynamics, and non-Gaussian phenomena. The latter implies that "covariance realism" is not always sufficient. SSA also requires "uncertainty realism"; the proper characterization of both the state and covariance and all non-zero higher-order cumulants. In other words, a proper characterization of a space object's full state *probability density function (PDF)* is required. In order to provide a more statistically rigorous treatment of uncertainty in the space surveillance tracking environment and to better support the aforementioned SSA functions, a new class of multivariate PDFs are formulated which more accurately characterize the uncertainty of a space object's state or orbit. The new distribution contains a parameter set controlling the higher-order cumulants which gives the level sets a distinctive "banana" or "boomerang" shape and degenerates to a Gaussian in a suitable limit. Using the new class of PDFs within the general Bayesian nonlinear filter, the resulting filter prediction step (i.e., uncertainty propagation) is shown to have the *same computational cost as the traditional unscented Kalman filter* with the former able to maintain a proper characterization of the uncertainty for up to *ten
Commonplaces and social uncertainty
Lassen, Inger
2008-01-01
an example of risk discourse in which the use of commonplaces seems to be a central feature (Myers 2004: 81). My analyses support earlier findings that commonplaces serve important interactional purposes (Barton 1999) and that they are used for mitigating disagreement, for closing topics and for facilitating...... risk discourse (Myers 2005; 2007). In additional, however, I argue that commonplaces are used to mitigate feelings of insecurity caused by uncertainty and to negotiate new codes of moral conduct. Keywords: uncertainty, commonplaces, risk discourse, focus groups, appraisal...
Government Control, Uncertainty, and Investment Decisions in China's Listed Companies
Liping Xu
2010-06-01
Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the relation between uncertainty and investment among China's listed companies, and analyzes the influence of government control on the investment-uncertainty relation. We find that there is a negative relation between total firm uncertainty and investment in China's listed companies. However, this holds only for privately controlled firms. Among privately controlled listed firms, investment is negatively related to firm-specific uncertainty, whereas among government-controlled ones, investment is positively related to market uncertainty. We also find that the risk-taking preference of government-controlled listed companies is greater among those firms with fewer investment opportunities. Finally, among financially distressed firms, the negative relation between investment and uncertainty becomes nonsignificant because of risk shifting, which is more serious among government-controlled listed companies. We conclude that government control leads to state interference and weak corporate governance, which, in turn, distorts investment decision making among listed companies.
Quantum preparation uncertainty and lack of information
Rozpędek, Filip; Kaniewski, Jędrzej; Coles, Patrick J.; Wehner, Stephanie
2017-02-01
The quantum uncertainty principle famously predicts that there exist measurements that are inherently incompatible, in the sense that their outcomes cannot be predicted simultaneously. In contrast, no such uncertainty exists in the classical domain, where all uncertainty results from ignorance about the exact state of the physical system. Here, we critically examine the concept of preparation uncertainty and ask whether similarly in the quantum regime, some of the uncertainty that we observe can actually also be understood as a lack of information (LOI), albeit a lack of quantum information. We answer this question affirmatively by showing that for the well known measurements employed in BB84 quantum key distribution (Bennett and Brassard 1984 Int. Conf. on Computer System and Signal Processing), the amount of uncertainty can indeed be related to the amount of available information about additional registers determining the choice of the measurement. We proceed to show that also for other measurements the amount of uncertainty is in part connected to a LOI. Finally, we discuss the conceptual implications of our observation to the security of cryptographic protocols that make use of BB84 states.
The topology of geology 2: Topological uncertainty
Thiele, Samuel T.; Jessell, Mark W.; Lindsay, Mark; Wellmann, J. Florian; Pakyuz-Charrier, Evren
2016-10-01
Uncertainty is ubiquitous in geology, and efforts to characterise and communicate it are becoming increasingly important. Recent studies have quantified differences between perturbed geological models to gain insight into uncertainty. We build on this approach by quantifying differences in topology, a property that describes geological relationships in a model, introducing the concept of topological uncertainty. Data defining implicit geological models were perturbed to simulate data uncertainties, and the amount of topological variation in the resulting model suite measured to provide probabilistic assessments of specific topological hypotheses, sources of topological uncertainty and the classification of possible model realisations based on their topology. Overall, topology was found to be highly sensitive to small variations in model construction parameters in realistic models, with almost all of the several thousand realisations defining distinct topologies. In particular, uncertainty related to faults and unconformities was found to have profound topological implications. Finally, possible uses of topology as a geodiversity metric and validation filter are discussed, and methods of incorporating topological uncertainty into physical models are suggested.
The aim of this work is to develop group-contribution+ (GC+) method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI) method) based property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncert...
Rains, Stephen A; Tukachinsky, Riva
2015-01-01
Uncertainty management theory outlines the processes through which individuals cope with health-related uncertainty. Information seeking has been frequently documented as an important uncertainty management strategy. The reported study investigates exposure to specific types of medical information during a search, and one's information-processing orientation as predictors of successful uncertainty management (i.e., a reduction in the discrepancy between the level of uncertainty one feels and the level one desires). A lab study was conducted in which participants were primed to feel more or less certain about skin cancer and then were allowed to search the World Wide Web for skin cancer information. Participants' search behavior was recorded and content analyzed. The results indicate that exposure to two health communication constructs that pervade medical forms of uncertainty (i.e., severity and susceptibility) and information-processing orientation predicted uncertainty management success.
Strategies for Application of Isotopic Uncertainties in Burnup Credit
Gauld, I.C.
2002-12-23
Uncertainties in the predicted isotopic concentrations in spent nuclear fuel represent one of the largest sources of overall uncertainty in criticality calculations that use burnup credit. The methods used to propagate the uncertainties in the calculated nuclide concentrations to the uncertainty in the predicted neutron multiplication factor (k{sub eff}) of the system can have a significant effect on the uncertainty in the safety margin in criticality calculations and ultimately affect the potential capacity of spent fuel transport and storage casks employing burnup credit. Methods that can provide a more accurate and realistic estimate of the uncertainty may enable increased spent fuel cask capacity and fewer casks needing to be transported, thereby reducing regulatory burden on licensee while maintaining safety for transporting spent fuel. This report surveys several different best-estimate strategies for considering the effects of nuclide uncertainties in burnup-credit analyses. The potential benefits of these strategies are illustrated for a prototypical burnup-credit cask design. The subcritical margin estimated using best-estimate methods is discussed in comparison to the margin estimated using conventional bounding methods of uncertainty propagation. To quantify the comparison, each of the strategies for estimating uncertainty has been performed using a common database of spent fuel isotopic assay measurements for pressurized-light-water reactor fuels and predicted nuclide concentrations obtained using the current version of the SCALE code system. The experimental database applied in this study has been significantly expanded to include new high-enrichment and high-burnup spent fuel assay data recently published for a wide range of important burnup-credit actinides and fission products. Expanded rare earth fission-product measurements performed at the Khlopin Radium Institute in Russia that contain the only known publicly-available measurement for {sup 103
Strategies for Application of Isotopic Uncertainties in Burnup Credit
Gauld, I.C.
2002-12-23
Uncertainties in the predicted isotopic concentrations in spent nuclear fuel represent one of the largest sources of overall uncertainty in criticality calculations that use burnup credit. The methods used to propagate the uncertainties in the calculated nuclide concentrations to the uncertainty in the predicted neutron multiplication factor (k{sub eff}) of the system can have a significant effect on the uncertainty in the safety margin in criticality calculations and ultimately affect the potential capacity of spent fuel transport and storage casks employing burnup credit. Methods that can provide a more accurate and realistic estimate of the uncertainty may enable increased spent fuel cask capacity and fewer casks needing to be transported, thereby reducing regulatory burden on licensee while maintaining safety for transporting spent fuel. This report surveys several different best-estimate strategies for considering the effects of nuclide uncertainties in burnup-credit analyses. The potential benefits of these strategies are illustrated for a prototypical burnup-credit cask design. The subcritical margin estimated using best-estimate methods is discussed in comparison to the margin estimated using conventional bounding methods of uncertainty propagation. To quantify the comparison, each of the strategies for estimating uncertainty has been performed using a common database of spent fuel isotopic assay measurements for pressurized-light-water reactor fuels and predicted nuclide concentrations obtained using the current version of the SCALE code system. The experimental database applied in this study has been significantly expanded to include new high-enrichment and high-burnup spent fuel assay data recently published for a wide range of important burnup-credit actinides and fission products. Expanded rare earth fission-product measurements performed at the Khlopin Radium Institute in Russia that contain the only known publicly-available measurement for {sup 103
Coulson-Thomas, Colin
2015-01-01
Examines risk management and contemporary issues concerning risk governance from a board perspective, including risk tolerance, innovation, insurance, balancing risks and other factors, risk and strategies of diversification or focus, increasing flexibility to cope with uncertainty, periodic planning versus intelligent steering, and limiting downside risks and adverse consequences.
Uncertainties in repository modeling
Wilson, J.R.
1996-12-31
The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling.
Vehicle Routing under Uncertainty
Máhr, T.
2011-01-01
In this thesis, the main focus is on the study of a real-world transportation problem with uncertainties, and on the comparison of a centralized and a distributed solution approach in the context of this problem. We formalize the real-world problem, and provide a general framework to extend it with
Greasley, David; Madsen, Jakob B.
2006-01-01
A severe collapse of fixed capital formation distinguished the onset of the Great Depression from other investment downturns between the world wars. Using a model estimated for the years 1890-2000, we show that the expected profitability of capital measured by Tobin's q, and the uncertainty surro...... of the depression: rather, its slump helped to propel the wider collapse...
Cettolin, E.; Riedl, A.M.
2013-01-01
An important element for the public support of policies is their perceived justice. At the same time most policy choices have uncertain outcomes. We report the results of a first experiment investigating just allocations of resources when some recipients are exposed to uncertainty. Although, under c
Saini, Tarun Deep; Sahni, Varun
2010-01-01
By observing mergers of compact objects, future gravity wave experiments would measure the luminosity distance to a large number of sources to a high precision but not their redshifts. Given the directional sensitivity of an experiment, a fraction of such sources (gold plated -- GP) can be identified optically as single objects in the direction of the source. We show that if an approximate distance-redshift relation is known then it is possible to statistically resolve those sources that have multiple galaxies in the beam. We study the feasibility of using gold plated sources to iteratively resolve the unresolved sources, obtain the self-calibrated best possible distance-redshift relation and provide an analytical expression for the accuracy achievable. We derive lower limit on the total number of sources that is needed to achieve this accuracy through self-calibration. We show that this limit depends exponentially on the beam width and give estimates for various experimental parameters representative of futu...
Trivalent expanders and hyperbolic surfaces
Ivrissimtzis, Ioannis; Vdovina, Alina
2012-01-01
We introduce a family of trivalent expanders which tessellate compact hyperbolic surfaces with large isometry groups. We compare this family with Platonic graphs and modifications of them and prove topological and spectral properties of these families.
The Uncertainty Test for the MAAP Computer Code
Park, S. H.; Song, Y. M.; Park, S. Y.; Ahn, K. I.; Kim, K. R.; Lee, Y. J. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2008-10-15
After the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) and Chernobyl accidents, safety issues for a severe accident are treated in various aspects. Major issues in our research part include a level 2 PSA. The difficulty in expanding the level 2 PSA as a risk information activity is the uncertainty. In former days, it attached a weight to improve the quality in a internal accident PSA, but the effort is insufficient for decrease the phenomenon uncertainty in the level 2 PSA. In our country, the uncertainty degree is high in the case of a level 2 PSA model, and it is necessary to secure a model to decrease the uncertainty. We have not yet experienced the uncertainty assessment technology, the assessment system itself depends on advanced nations. In advanced nations, the severe accident simulator is implemented in the hardware level. But in our case, basic function in a software level can be implemented. In these circumstance at home and abroad, similar instances are surveyed such as UQM and MELCOR. Referred to these instances, SAUNA (Severe Accident UNcertainty Analysis) system is being developed in our project to assess and decrease the uncertainty in a level 2 PSA. It selects the MAAP code to analyze the uncertainty in a severe accident.
Uncertainty representation of grey numbers and grey sets.
Yang, Yingjie; Liu, Sifeng; John, Robert
2014-09-01
In the literature, there is a presumption that a grey set and an interval-valued fuzzy set are equivalent. This presumption ignores the existence of discrete components in a grey number. In this paper, new measurements of uncertainties of grey numbers and grey sets, consisting of both absolute and relative uncertainties, are defined to give a comprehensive representation of uncertainties in a grey number and a grey set. Some simple examples are provided to illustrate that the proposed uncertainty measurement can give an effective representation of both absolute and relative uncertainties in a grey number and a grey set. The relationships between grey sets and interval-valued fuzzy sets are also analyzed from the point of view of the proposed uncertainty representation. The analysis demonstrates that grey sets and interval-valued fuzzy sets provide different but overlapping models for uncertainty representation in sets.
Transfer Standard Uncertainty Can Cause Inconclusive Inter-Laboratory Comparisons.
Wright, John; Toman, Blaza; Mickan, Bodo; Wübbeler, Gerd; Bodnar, Olha; Elster, Clemens
2016-12-01
Inter-laboratory comparisons use the best available transfer standards to check the participants' uncertainty analyses, identify underestimated uncertainty claims or unknown measurement biases, and improve the global measurement system. For some measurands, instability of the transfer standard can lead to an inconclusive comparison result. If the transfer standard uncertainty is large relative to a participating laboratory's uncertainty, the commonly used standardized degree of equivalence ≤ 1 criterion does not always correctly assess whether a participant is working within their uncertainty claims. We show comparison results that demonstrate this issue and propose several criteria for assessing a comparison result as passing, failing, or inconclusive. We investigate the behavior of the standardized degree of equivalence and alternative comparison measures for a range of values of the transfer standard uncertainty relative to the individual laboratory uncertainty values. The proposed alternative criteria successfully discerned between passing, failing, and inconclusive comparison results for the cases we examined.
Quantifying reliability uncertainty : a proof of concept.
Diegert, Kathleen V.; Dvorack, Michael A.; Ringland, James T.; Mundt, Michael Joseph; Huzurbazar, Aparna (Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM); Lorio, John F.; Fatherley, Quinn (Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM); Anderson-Cook, Christine (Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM); Wilson, Alyson G. (Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM); Zurn, Rena M.
2009-10-01
This paper develops Classical and Bayesian methods for quantifying the uncertainty in reliability for a system of mixed series and parallel components for which both go/no-go and variables data are available. Classical methods focus on uncertainty due to sampling error. Bayesian methods can explore both sampling error and other knowledge-based uncertainties. To date, the reliability community has focused on qualitative statements about uncertainty because there was no consensus on how to quantify them. This paper provides a proof of concept that workable, meaningful quantification methods can be constructed. In addition, the application of the methods demonstrated that the results from the two fundamentally different approaches can be quite comparable. In both approaches, results are sensitive to the details of how one handles components for which no failures have been seen in relatively few tests.
Lo Bianco, A.S.; Oliveira, H.P.S.; Peixoto, J.G.P., E-mail: abianco@ird.gov.b [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Lab. Nacional de Metrologia das Radiacoes Ionizantes (LNMRI)
2009-07-01
To implant the primary standard of the magnitude kerma in the air for X-ray between 10 - 50 keV, the National Metrology Laboratory of Ionizing Radiations (LNMRI) must evaluate all the uncertainties of measurement related with Victtoren chamber. So, it was evaluated the uncertainty of the kerma in the air consequent of the inaccuracy in the active volume of the chamber using the calculation of Monte Carlo as a tool through the Penelope software
Responsible implementation of expanded carrier screening.
Henneman, Lidewij; Borry, Pascal; Chokoshvili, Davit; Cornel, Martina C; van El, Carla G; Forzano, Francesca; Hall, Alison; Howard, Heidi C; Janssens, Sandra; Kayserili, Hülya; Lakeman, Phillis; Lucassen, Anneke; Metcalfe, Sylvia A; Vidmar, Lovro; de Wert, Guido; Dondorp, Wybo J; Peterlin, Borut
2016-06-01
This document of the European Society of Human Genetics contains recommendations regarding responsible implementation of expanded carrier screening. Carrier screening is defined here as the detection of carrier status of recessive diseases in couples or persons who do not have an a priori increased risk of being a carrier based on their or their partners' personal or family history. Expanded carrier screening offers carrier screening for multiple autosomal and X-linked recessive disorders, facilitated by new genetic testing technologies, and allows testing of individuals regardless of ancestry or geographic origin. Carrier screening aims to identify couples who have an increased risk of having an affected child in order to facilitate informed reproductive decision making. In previous decades, carrier screening was typically performed for one or few relatively common recessive disorders associated with significant morbidity, reduced life-expectancy and often because of a considerable higher carrier frequency in a specific population for certain diseases. New genetic testing technologies enable the expansion of screening to multiple conditions, genes or sequence variants. Expanded carrier screening panels that have been introduced to date have been advertised and offered to health care professionals and the public on a commercial basis. This document discusses the challenges that expanded carrier screening might pose in the context of the lessons learnt from decades of population-based carrier screening and in the context of existing screening criteria. It aims to contribute to the public and professional discussion and to arrive at better clinical and laboratory practice guidelines.
Responsible implementation of expanded carrier screening
Henneman, Lidewij; Borry, Pascal; Chokoshvili, Davit; Cornel, Martina C; van El, Carla G; Forzano, Francesca; Hall, Alison; Howard, Heidi C; Janssens, Sandra; Kayserili, Hülya; Lakeman, Phillis; Lucassen, Anneke; Metcalfe, Sylvia A; Vidmar, Lovro; de Wert, Guido; Dondorp, Wybo J; Peterlin, Borut
2016-01-01
This document of the European Society of Human Genetics contains recommendations regarding responsible implementation of expanded carrier screening. Carrier screening is defined here as the detection of carrier status of recessive diseases in couples or persons who do not have an a priori increased risk of being a carrier based on their or their partners' personal or family history. Expanded carrier screening offers carrier screening for multiple autosomal and X-linked recessive disorders, facilitated by new genetic testing technologies, and allows testing of individuals regardless of ancestry or geographic origin. Carrier screening aims to identify couples who have an increased risk of having an affected child in order to facilitate informed reproductive decision making. In previous decades, carrier screening was typically performed for one or few relatively common recessive disorders associated with significant morbidity, reduced life-expectancy and often because of a considerable higher carrier frequency in a specific population for certain diseases. New genetic testing technologies enable the expansion of screening to multiple conditions, genes or sequence variants. Expanded carrier screening panels that have been introduced to date have been advertised and offered to health care professionals and the public on a commercial basis. This document discusses the challenges that expanded carrier screening might pose in the context of the lessons learnt from decades of population-based carrier screening and in the context of existing screening criteria. It aims to contribute to the public and professional discussion and to arrive at better clinical and laboratory practice guidelines. PMID:26980105
The Application of Expand Option of Real Options in Human Resources Evaluation
CHANG Qing; HU Cheng-cui
2006-01-01
The traditional models of evaluating human resources are mainly based upon the discounted value of future payment, but these models fail to take the employment risk into account, and often neglect the uncertainty and underestimate the human resource value. This paper first introduces the option theory, and then presents human resources as the real commodity for the call option. Second, concerning the choices for the uncertainty decision, the decisions of delaying the employment of the human resources, expanding or deducing the scale of human resources, giving up or changing human resources, etc., are made to deal with the future uncertainties appropriately. This will cause the investment to be more beneficial or to reduce the loss. Finally, the expand option theory of real options is used to evaluate the value of reinvestment in human resources, and the expand option theory could be provided as a reference for management implementation and decision-making in human resources.
Where does the uncertainty come from? Attributing Uncertainty in Conceptual Hydrologic Modelling
Abu Shoaib, S.; Marshall, L. A.; Sharma, A.
2015-12-01
Defining an appropriate forecasting model is a key phase in water resources planning and design. Quantification of uncertainty is an important step in the development and application of hydrologic models. In this study, we examine the dependency of hydrologic model uncertainty on the observed model inputs, defined model structure, parameter optimization identifiability and identified likelihood. We present here a new uncertainty metric, the Quantile Flow Deviation or QFD, to evaluate the relative uncertainty due to each of these sources under a range of catchment conditions. Through the metric, we may identify the potential spectrum of uncertainty and variability in model simulations. The QFD assesses uncertainty by estimating the deviation in flows at a given quantile across a range of scenarios. By using a quantile based metric, the change in uncertainty across individual percentiles can be assessed, thereby allowing uncertainty to be expressed as a function of time. The QFD method can be disaggregated to examine any part of the modelling process including the selection of certain model subroutines or forcing data. Case study results (including catchments in Australia and USA) suggest that model structure selection is vital irrespective of the flow percentile of interest or the catchment being studied. Examining the QFD across various quantiles additionally demonstrates that lower yielding catchments may have greater variation due to selected model structures. By incorporating multiple model structures, it is possible to assess (i) the relative importance of various sources of uncertainty, (ii) how these vary with the change in catchment location or hydrologic regime; and (iii) the impact of the length of available observations in uncertainty quantification.
Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty
Tosello, Guido; De Chiffre, Leonardo
2004-01-01
respects necessary scientific precision and problem-solving approach of the field of engineering studies. Competences should be presented in a way that is methodologically and didactically optimised for employees with a mostly work-based vocational qualification and should at the same time be appealing...... and motivating to this important group. The developed e-learning system consists on 12 different chapters dealing with the following topics: 1. Basics 2. Traceability and measurement uncertainty 3. Coordinate metrology 4. Form measurement 5. Surface testing 6. Optical measurement and testing 7. Measuring rooms 8....... Machine tool testing 9. The role of manufacturing metrology for QM 10. Inspection planning 11. Quality management of measurements incl. Documentation 12. Advanced manufacturing measurement technology The present report (which represents the section 2 - Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty – of the e...
Uncertainty quantification for environmental models
Hill, Mary C.; Lu, Dan; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.; Ye, Ming
2012-01-01
Environmental models are used to evaluate the fate of fertilizers in agricultural settings (including soil denitrification), the degradation of hydrocarbons at spill sites, and water supply for people and ecosystems in small to large basins and cities—to mention but a few applications of these models. They also play a role in understanding and diagnosing potential environmental impacts of global climate change. The models are typically mildly to extremely nonlinear. The persistent demand for enhanced dynamics and resolution to improve model realism [17] means that lengthy individual model execution times will remain common, notwithstanding continued enhancements in computer power. In addition, high-dimensional parameter spaces are often defined, which increases the number of model runs required to quantify uncertainty [2]. Some environmental modeling projects have access to extensive funding and computational resources; many do not. The many recent studies of uncertainty quantification in environmental model predictions have focused on uncertainties related to data error and sparsity of data, expert judgment expressed mathematically through prior information, poorly known parameter values, and model structure (see, for example, [1,7,9,10,13,18]). Approaches for quantifying uncertainty include frequentist (potentially with prior information [7,9]), Bayesian [13,18,19], and likelihood-based. A few of the numerous methods, including some sensitivity and inverse methods with consequences for understanding and quantifying uncertainty, are as follows: Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Bayesian model averaging; single-objective optimization with error-based weighting [7] and multi-objective optimization [3]; methods based on local derivatives [2,7,10]; screening methods like OAT (one at a time) and the method of Morris [14]; FAST (Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing) [14]; the Sobol' method [14]; randomized maximum likelihood [10]; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [10
Further explorations of illness uncertainty: carers' experiences of Parkinson's disease.
Hurt, Catherine S; Cleanthous, Sophie; Newman, Stanton P
2017-05-01
Dominant models of illness uncertainty define uncertainty as 'an inability to determine the meaning of illness-related events'. Recent research has shown patient uncertainty to be multidimensional encompassing personal issues indirectly affected by illness. The nature of carer uncertainty has yet to be fully explored. The present study aimed to investigate the nature of illness uncertainty in the carers of patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). Eighteen carers of a spouse with PD participated in semistructured interviews. Transcripts were thematically analysed, statements were coded as uncertain if they reflected 'a lack of certainty, or a state of limited knowledge, understanding or worry regarding an existing or future outcome'. The domains of uncertainty expressed by carers closely fitted the five domain framework of patient uncertainty: symptoms and prognosis, medical management, self-management, social functioning and impact. An additional 'carer-role' domain was identified. Carer uncertainty about PD went beyond issues directly related to the illness. The findings have implications for research into uncertainty suggesting that widely used measures may not be accurately capturing the nature of carer uncertainty about chronic illness. The breadth of uncertainty reported has implications for the provision of appropriate support to improve caregiver well-being.
Aggregating and Communicating Uncertainty.
1980-04-01
means for identifying and communicating uncertainty. i 12- APPENDIX A BIBLIOGRAPHY j| 1. Ajzen , Icek ; "Intuitive Theories of Events and the Effects...disregarding valid but noncausal information." (Icak Ajzen , "Intuitive Theo- ries of Events and the Effects of Base-Rate Information on Prediction...9 4i,* ,4.. -. .- S % to the criterion while disregarding valid but noncausal information." (Icak Ajzen , "Intuitive Theories of Events and the Effects
1981-05-15
Variants of Uncertainty Daniel Kahneman University of British Columbia Amos Tversky Stanford University DTI-C &%E-IECTE ~JUNO 1i 19 8 1j May 15, 1981... Dennett , 1979) in which different parts have ac- cess to different data, assign then different weights and hold different views of the situation...2robable and t..h1 provable. Oxford- Claredor Press, 1977. Dennett , D.C. Brainstorms. Hassocks: Harvester, 1979. Donchin, E., Ritter, W. & McCallum, W.C
Uncertainty Quantification in Aeroelasticity
Beran, Philip; Stanford, Bret; Schrock, Christopher
2017-01-01
Physical interactions between a fluid and structure, potentially manifested as self-sustained or divergent oscillations, can be sensitive to many parameters whose values are uncertain. Of interest here are aircraft aeroelastic interactions, which must be accounted for in aircraft certification and design. Deterministic prediction of these aeroelastic behaviors can be difficult owing to physical and computational complexity. New challenges are introduced when physical parameters and elements of the modeling process are uncertain. By viewing aeroelasticity through a nondeterministic prism, where key quantities are assumed stochastic, one may gain insights into how to reduce system uncertainty, increase system robustness, and maintain aeroelastic safety. This article reviews uncertainty quantification in aeroelasticity using traditional analytical techniques not reliant on computational fluid dynamics; compares and contrasts this work with emerging methods based on computational fluid dynamics, which target richer physics; and reviews the state of the art in aeroelastic optimization under uncertainty. Barriers to continued progress, for example, the so-called curse of dimensionality, are discussed.
Calibration Under Uncertainty.
Swiler, Laura Painton; Trucano, Timothy Guy
2005-03-01
This report is a white paper summarizing the literature and different approaches to the problem of calibrating computer model parameters in the face of model uncertainty. Model calibration is often formulated as finding the parameters that minimize the squared difference between the model-computed data (the predicted data) and the actual experimental data. This approach does not allow for explicit treatment of uncertainty or error in the model itself: the model is considered the %22true%22 deterministic representation of reality. While this approach does have utility, it is far from an accurate mathematical treatment of the true model calibration problem in which both the computed data and experimental data have error bars. This year, we examined methods to perform calibration accounting for the error in both the computer model and the data, as well as improving our understanding of its meaning for model predictability. We call this approach Calibration under Uncertainty (CUU). This talk presents our current thinking on CUU. We outline some current approaches in the literature, and discuss the Bayesian approach to CUU in detail.
Uncertainty quantified trait predictions
Fazayeli, Farideh; Kattge, Jens; Banerjee, Arindam; Schrodt, Franziska; Reich, Peter
2015-04-01
Functional traits of organisms are key to understanding and predicting biodiversity and ecological change, which motivates continuous collection of traits and their integration into global databases. Such composite trait matrices are inherently sparse, severely limiting their usefulness for further analyses. On the other hand, traits are characterized by the phylogenetic trait signal, trait-trait correlations and environmental constraints, all of which provide information that could be used to statistically fill gaps. We propose the application of probabilistic models which, for the first time, utilize all three characteristics to fill gaps in trait databases and predict trait values at larger spatial scales. For this purpose we introduce BHPMF, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF). PMF is a machine learning technique which exploits the correlation structure of sparse matrices to impute missing entries. BHPMF additionally utilizes the taxonomic hierarchy for trait prediction. Implemented in the context of a Gibbs Sampler MCMC approach BHPMF provides uncertainty estimates for each trait prediction. We present comprehensive experimental results on the problem of plant trait prediction using the largest database of plant traits, where BHPMF shows strong empirical performance in uncertainty quantified trait prediction, outperforming the state-of-the-art based on point estimates. Further, we show that BHPMF is more accurate when it is confident, whereas the error is high when the uncertainty is high.
Participation under Uncertainty
Boudourides, Moses A. [Univ. of Patras, Rio-Patras (Greece). Dept. of Mathematics
2003-10-01
This essay reviews a number of theoretical perspectives about uncertainty and participation in the present-day knowledge-based society. After discussing the on-going reconfigurations of science, technology and society, we examine how appropriate for policy studies are various theories of social complexity. Post-normal science is such an example of a complexity-motivated approach, which justifies civic participation as a policy response to an increasing uncertainty. But there are different categories and models of uncertainties implying a variety of configurations of policy processes. A particular role in all of them is played by expertise whose democratization is an often-claimed imperative nowadays. Moreover, we discuss how different participatory arrangements are shaped into instruments of policy-making and framing regulatory processes. As participation necessitates and triggers deliberation, we proceed to examine the role and the barriers of deliberativeness. Finally, we conclude by referring to some critical views about the ultimate assumptions of recent European policy frameworks and the conceptions of civic participation and politicization that they invoke.
The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies — A Danish water management example
Refsgaard, J.C.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Drews, Martin
2013-01-01
be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts...... are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level...... and decision making: (i) epistemic uncertainties can be reduced by gaining more knowledge; (ii) uncertainties related to ambiguity can be reduced by dialogue and knowledge sharing between the different stakeholders; and (iii) aleatory uncertainty is, by its nature, non-reducible. The uncertainty cascade...
Uncertainty Analysis in the Noise Parameters Estimation
Pawlik P.
2012-07-01
Full Text Available The new approach to the uncertainty estimation in modelling acoustic hazards by means of the interval arithmetic is presented in the paper. In the case of the noise parameters estimation the selection of parameters specifying the acoustic wave propagation in an open space as well as parameters which are required in a form of average values – often constitutes a difficult problem. In such case, it is necessary to determine the variance and then, related strictly to it, the uncertainty of model parameters. The application of the interval arithmetic formalism allows to estimate the input data uncertainties without the necessity of the determination their probability distribution, which is required by other methods of uncertainty assessment. A successive problem in the acoustic hazards estimation is a lack of the exact knowledge of the input parameters. In connection with the above, the analysis of the modelling uncertainty in dependence of inaccuracy of model parameters was performed. To achieve this aim the interval arithmetic formalism – representing the value and its uncertainty in a form of an interval – was applied. The proposed approach was illustrated by the example of the application the Dutch RMR SRM Method, recommended by the European Union Directive 2002/49/WE, in the railway noise modelling.
Uncertainty, fear and whistling happy tunes.
Wallis, Katharine; Wallis, Katherine
2009-03-01
Uncertainty in medical practice is ineradicable, despite great scientific advances over the last century. Uncertainty provokes fear, not just in patients but also in doctors. Patients cope with theirfear by seeking the advice and reassurance of doctors; doctors, on the other hand, cope by denial and self-deception. But today, in this scientific, truth-seeking age doctors are encouraged to share their uncertainty with patients in order to 'empower' patients and improve doctor-patient relations. While in theory doctors might agree with this approach, in practice they continue to deny it and instead whistle happy tunes--deceiving both themselves and their patients. A disclosure of uncertainty requires an acknowledgement of uncertainty and, in practice, the ability of doctors to acknowledge and to tolerate uncertainty is limited. Whenever I feel afraid, I hold my head erect. And whistle a happy tune, So no one will suspect I'm afraid. While shivering in my shoes, I strike a careless pose. And whistle a happy tune, And no one ever knows. I'm afraid. The result of this deception, Is very strange to tell. For when I fool the people I fear, I fool myself as well!
Handling Unquantifiable Uncertainties in Landslide Modelling
Almeida, S.; Holcombe, E.; Pianosi, F.; Wagener, T.
2015-12-01
Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. Slope stability assessment can be used to guide decisions about the management of landslide risk, but its usefulness can be challenged by high levels of uncertainty in predicting landslide occurrence. Prediction uncertainty may be associated with the choice of model that is used to assess slope stability, the quality of the available input data, or a lack of knowledge of how future climatic and socio-economic changes may affect future landslide risk. While some of these uncertainties can be characterised by relatively well-defined probability distributions, for other uncertainties, such as those linked to climate change, there is no agreement on what probability distribution should be used to characterise them. This latter type of uncertainty, often referred to as deep uncertainty, means that robust policies need to be developed that are expected to perform adequately under a wide range of future conditions. In our study the impact of deep uncertainty on slope stability predictions is assessed in a quantitative and structured manner using Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) and the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM). In particular, we use and combine several GSA methods including the Method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis and CART, as well as advanced visualization tools. Our example application is a slope in the Caribbean, an area that is naturally susceptible to landslides due to a combination of high rainfall rates, steep slopes, and highly weathered residual soils. Rapid unplanned urbanisation and changing climate may further exacerbate landslide risk in the future. Our example shows how we can gain useful information in the presence of deep uncertainty by combining physically based models with GSA in a scenario discovery framework.
Alleno, E.; Bérardan, D.; Byl, C.; Candolfi, C.; Daou, R.; Decourt, R.; Guilmeau, E.; Hébert, S.; Hejtmanek, J.; Lenoir, B.; Masschelein, P.; Ohorodnichuk, V.; Pollet, M.; Populoh, S.; Ravot, D.; Rouleau, O.; Soulier, M.
2015-01-01
A round robin test aiming at measuring the high-temperature thermoelectric properties was carried out by a group of European (mainly French) laboratories (labs). Polycrystalline skutterudite Co0.97Ni0.03Sb3 was characterized by Seebeck coefficient (8 labs), electrical resistivity (9 labs), thermal diffusivity (6 labs), mass volume density (6 labs), and specific heat (6 labs) measurements. These data were statistically processed to determine the uncertainty on all these measured quantities as a function of temperature and combined to obtain an overall uncertainty on the thermal conductivity (product of thermal diffusivity by density and by specific heat) and on the thermoelectric figure of merit ZT. An increase with temperature of all these uncertainties is observed, in agreement with growing difficulties to measure these quantities when temperature increases. The uncertainties on the electrical resistivity and thermal diffusivity are most likely dominated by the uncertainty on the sample dimensions. The temperature-averaged (300-700 K) relative standard uncertainties at the confidence level of 68% amount to 6%, 8%, 11%, and 19% for the Seebeck coefficient, electrical resistivity, thermal conductivity, and figure of merit ZT, respectively. Thermal conductivity measurements appear as the least accurate. The moderate value of the temperature-averaged relative expanded (confidence level of 95%) uncertainty of 17% on the mean of ZT is essential in establishing Co0.97Ni0.03Sb3 as a high temperature standard n-type thermoelectric material.
S-parameter uncertainty computations
Vidkjær, Jens
1993-01-01
A method for computing uncertainties of measured s-parameters is presented. Unlike the specification software provided with network analyzers, the new method is capable of calculating the uncertainties of arbitrary s-parameter sets and instrument settings.......A method for computing uncertainties of measured s-parameters is presented. Unlike the specification software provided with network analyzers, the new method is capable of calculating the uncertainties of arbitrary s-parameter sets and instrument settings....
Zhou, Rurui; Li, Yu; Lu, Di; Liu, Haixing; Zhou, Huicheng
2016-09-01
This paper investigates the use of an epsilon-dominance non-dominated sorted genetic algorithm II (ɛ-NSGAII) as a sampling approach with an aim to improving sampling efficiency for multiple metrics uncertainty analysis using Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). The effectiveness of ɛ-NSGAII based sampling is demonstrated compared with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) through analyzing sampling efficiency, multiple metrics performance, parameter uncertainty and flood forecasting uncertainty with a case study of flood forecasting uncertainty evaluation based on Xinanjiang model (XAJ) for Qing River reservoir, China. Results obtained demonstrate the following advantages of the ɛ-NSGAII based sampling approach in comparison to LHS: (1) The former performs more effective and efficient than LHS, for example the simulation time required to generate 1000 behavioral parameter sets is shorter by 9 times; (2) The Pareto tradeoffs between metrics are demonstrated clearly with the solutions from ɛ-NSGAII based sampling, also their Pareto optimal values are better than those of LHS, which means better forecasting accuracy of ɛ-NSGAII parameter sets; (3) The parameter posterior distributions from ɛ-NSGAII based sampling are concentrated in the appropriate ranges rather than uniform, which accords with their physical significance, also parameter uncertainties are reduced significantly; (4) The forecasted floods are close to the observations as evaluated by three measures: the normalized total flow outside the uncertainty intervals (FOUI), average relative band-width (RB) and average deviation amplitude (D). The flood forecasting uncertainty is also reduced a lot with ɛ-NSGAII based sampling. This study provides a new sampling approach to improve multiple metrics uncertainty analysis under the framework of GLUE, and could be used to reveal the underlying mechanisms of parameter sets under multiple conflicting metrics in the uncertainty analysis process.
Federal government expands compliance initiatives.
Dugan, J K
1997-09-01
In 1995, the Federal government initiated Operation Restore Trust to increase enforcement of fraud and abuse regulations in Medicare and Medicaid programs. With the success of the original initiative, the government is expanding the project to additional states and program areas. The initial scrutiny of home health agencies, nursing homes, hospice care, and durable medical equipment is being expanded to managed care plans and acute care hospitals with an eye toward DRG creep. To manage this increased enforcement activity, healthcare organizations should institute comprehensive corporate compliance programs. Such programs should provide a framework that delineates responsibilities and provides a systematic means to resolve issues in a timely manner.
Flow boiling in expanding microchannels
Alam, Tamanna
2017-01-01
This Brief presents an up to date summary of details of the flow boiling heat transfer, pressure drop and instability characteristics; two phase flow patterns of expanding microchannels. Results obtained from the different expanding microscale geometries are presented for comparison and addition to that, comparison with literatures is also performed. Finally, parametric studies are performed and presented in the brief. The findings from this study could help in understanding the complex microscale flow boiling behavior and aid in the design and implementation of reliable compact heat sinks for practical applications.
Measurement uncertainty of lactase-containing tablets analyzed with FTIR.
Paakkunainen, Maaret; Kohonen, Jarno; Reinikainen, Satu-Pia
2014-01-01
Uncertainty is one of the most critical aspects in determination of measurement reliability. In order to ensure accurate measurements, results need to be traceable and uncertainty measurable. In this study, homogeneity of FTIR samples is determined with a combination of variographic and multivariate approach. An approach for estimation of uncertainty within individual sample, as well as, within repeated samples is introduced. FTIR samples containing two commercial pharmaceutical lactase products (LactaNON and Lactrase) are applied as an example of the procedure. The results showed that the approach is suitable for the purpose. The sample pellets were quite homogeneous, since the total uncertainty of each pellet varied between 1.5% and 2.5%. The heterogeneity within a tablet strip was found to be dominant, as 15-20 tablets has to be analyzed in order to achieve <5.0% expanded uncertainty level. Uncertainty arising from the FTIR instrument was <1.0%. The uncertainty estimates are computed directly from FTIR spectra without any concentration information of the analyte.
In vitro comparison of self-expanding versus balloon-expandable stents in a human ex vivo model.
Grenacher, Lars; Rohde, Stefan; Gänger, Ellen; Deutsch, Jochen; Kauffmann, Günter W; Richter, Götz M
2006-01-01
The objective was to compare the radial strength and expansile precision of self-expanding stents and balloon-expandable stents in a human cadaver bifurcation model. Seven different self-expanding (LUMINEXX, JOSTENT SelfX, JOSTENT SelfX hrf, Sinus-Repo, Sinus SuperFlex, Easy Wallstent, SMART) and four different balloon-expandable stent models (Palmaz, Sinus Stent, SAXX Medium, JOSTENT peripheral), each type 10 stents (total n = 110 stents) were implanted into the common iliac arteries of human cadaver corpses. The maximum stent diameter was 10 mm for all models. After stent implantation, the specimens were filled with silicone caoutchouc. After 24 h, the vascular walls including the stents were removed from the hardened casts. Diameters were taken and the weight of the cast cylinders was measured in air and in purified water to calculate the volume of the bodies (according to Archimedes Law) as a relative but precise degree for the radial strength of the implanted stents. The cylindrical casts of the self-expanding stents showed lower mean diameters (8.2 +/- 1.0 mm) and mean volumes (0.60 +/- 0.14 ml/cm) than in the balloon-expandable stent group (10.1 +/- 0.3 mm and 0.71 +/- 0.04 ml/cm, respectively; p < 0.01). The nominal maximum diameter of 10 mm was not achieved in any of the self-expanding stents, but this was achieved in more than 70% (29/40) of the balloon-expandable stent specimens (p < 0.05). The variation between achieved volumes was significantly larger in self-expanding (range: 0.23-0.78 ml/cm) than in balloon-expandable stents (range: 0.66-0.81 ml/cm; p < 0.05). Self-expanding stents presented considerably lower radial expansion force and lower degree of precision than balloon-expandable stents.
Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties
Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen
2012-01-01
This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes......-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project. The presentation of RSF is demonstrated by using an appraisal case concerning a new airfield in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk....
Douglas, William
1994-01-01
Finds the conjunction between subjects' uncertainty and their use of question asking and disclosure strategies was limited to preliminary conversation and derived from global uncertainty. Finds that, although uncertainty and liking were related synchronously in ways consistent with uncertainty reduction theory, there was little evidence of…
Quantifying uncertainty in proxy-based paleoclimate reconstructions
D'Andrea, William J.; Polissar, Pratigya J.
2017-04-01
There are now numerous geochemical tools that can provide quantitative estimates of past temperatures and hydrologic variables. These proxies for past climate are usually calibrated using empirical relationships with quantifiable uncertainty. Laboratory analysis introduces additional sources of uncertainty that must also be accounted for in order to fully propagate the uncertainty in an estimated climate variable. The aim of this presentation is to review the sources of uncertainty that can be quantified and reported when using different geochemical climate proxies for paleoclimate reconstruction. I will consider a number of widely used climate proxies, discuss the relative importance of various sources of uncertainty for each, and attempt to identify ways in which the scientific community might reduce these uncertainties. For example, compound-specific δD measurements can be used for quantitative estimation of source water δD values, a useful tracer for paleohydrologic changes. Such estimates have quantifiable levels of uncertainty that are often miscalculated, resulting in inaccurate error reporting in the scientific literature that can impact paleohydrologic interpretations. Here, I will summarize the uncertainties inherent to molecular δD measurements and the quantification of source water δD values, and discuss the assumptions involved when omitting various sources of uncertainty. The analytical uncertainty of δD measurements is often improperly estimated and secondary to the apparent fractionation between δD values of source water and molecule, normalization of data to the VSMOW scale introduces the largest amount of uncertainty.
Heisenberg Uncertainty Relation in Quantum Liouville Equation
Davide Valenti
2009-01-01
Fourier transform of the density matrix ρ(z,y,t = ψ∗(z,tψ(y,t. We find again that the variances of x and v obtained by using ρ(z, y,t are respectively equal to the variances of X^ and P^ calculated in ψ(x,t. Finally we introduce the matrix ∥Ann′(t∥ and we show that a generic square-integrable function g(x,v,t can be written as Fourier transform of a density matrix, provided that the matrix ∥Ann′(t∥ is diagonalizable.
Risk, Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship
Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam
Theory predicts that entrepreneurs have distinct attitudes towards risk and uncertainty, but empirical evidence is mixed. To better understand the unique behavioral characteristics of entrepreneurs and the causes of these mixed results, we perform a large ‘lab-in-the-field’ experiment comparing...... entrepreneurs to managers – a suitable comparison group – and employees (n = 2288). The results indicate that entrepreneurs perceive themselves as less risk averse than managers and employees, in line with common wisdom. However, when using experimental incentivized measures, the differences are subtler...
Mathematical Analysis of Uncertainty
Angel GARRIDO
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Classical Logic showed early its insufficiencies for solving AI problems. The introduction of Fuzzy Logic aims at this problem. There have been research in the conventional Rough direction alone or in the Fuzzy direction alone, and more recently, attempts to combine both into Fuzzy Rough Sets or Rough Fuzzy Sets. We analyse some new and powerful tools in the study of Uncertainty, as the Probabilistic Graphical Models, Chain Graphs, Bayesian Networks, and Markov Networks, integrating our knowledge of graphs and probability.
Optimization under Uncertainty
Lopez, Rafael H.
2016-01-06
The goal of this poster is to present the main approaches to optimization of engineering systems in the presence of uncertainties. We begin by giving an insight about robust optimization. Next, we detail how to deal with probabilistic constraints in optimization, the so called the reliability based design. Subsequently, we present the risk optimization approach, which includes the expected costs of failure in the objective function. After that the basic description of each approach is given, the projects developed by CORE are presented. Finally, the main current topic of research of CORE is described.
FAN Hong-Yi; SUN Zhi-Hu
2000-01-01
For the Noh, Fougères and Mandel (NFM) operational quantum phase description, which is based on an eightport homodyne-detection, we derive the minimum uncertainty states for the number-difference-phase uncertainty relation. The derivation makes full use of the newly constructed ｜q, τ) representation which is the common eigenvector of the two-mode photon number-difference a+a -b+b and (a + b+)(a+ + b)
Expanding the eukaryotic genetic code
Chin, Jason W.; Cropp, T. Ashton; Anderson, J. Christopher; Schultz, Peter G.
2017-02-28
This invention provides compositions and methods for producing translational components that expand the number of genetically encoded amino acids in eukaryotic cells. The components include orthogonal tRNAs, orthogonal aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases, orthogonal pairs of tRNAs/synthetases and unnatural amino acids. Proteins and methods of producing proteins with unnatural amino acids in eukaryotic cells are also provided.
ERBU, Expanding Rubber Band Universe
Soares, Domingos
2015-01-01
I put forward a simple unidimensional mechanical analogue of the three-dimensional universe models of modern relativistic cosmology. The main goal of the proposal is the appropriate appreciation of the intrinsic relationship between Hubble's law and the homogeneity of expanding relativistic models.
Expanding the eukaryotic genetic code
Chin, Jason W.; Cropp, T. Ashton; Anderson, J. Christopher; Schultz, Peter G.
2013-01-22
This invention provides compositions and methods for producing translational components that expand the number of genetically encoded amino acids in eukaryotic cells. The components include orthogonal tRNAs, orthogonal aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases, orthogonal pairs of tRNAs/synthetases and unnatural amino acids. Proteins and methods of producing proteins with unnatural amino acids in eukaryotic cells are also provided.
Expandable Shelter/Container Report.
1973-06-01
without removing whatever payload might be in the contai ner. Equ i pment located in the expanded porti on of the ES/C durin g norma l operat i ons is...and Supply BattalIon , Div isi on Support Coianand. In addition , divisional avIation battalions have an A Irc raft Maintenance Company. The TOE
Integrating Out Astrophysical Uncertainties
Fox, Patrick J; Weiner, Neal
2010-01-01
Underground searches for dark matter involve a complicated interplay of particle physics, nuclear physics, atomic physics and astrophysics. We attempt to remove the uncertainties associated with astrophysics by developing the means to map the observed signal in one experiment directly into a predicted rate at another. We argue that it is possible to make experimental comparisons that are completely free of astrophysical uncertainties by focusing on {\\em integral} quantities, such as $g(v_{min})=\\int_{v_{min}} dv\\, f(v)/v $ and $\\int_{v_{thresh}} dv\\, v g(v)$. Direct comparisons are possible when the $v_{min}$ space probed by different experiments overlap. As examples, we consider the possible dark matter signals at CoGeNT, DAMA and CRESST-Oxygen. We find that expected rate from CoGeNT in the XENON10 experiment is higher than observed, unless scintillation light output is low. Moreover, we determine that S2-only analyses are constraining, unless the charge yield $Q_y< 2.4 {\\, \\rm electrons/keV}$. For DAMA t...
Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation
Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan
2013-04-01
The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by
Assessing flood forecast uncertainty with fuzzy arithmetic
de Bruyn Bertrand
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Providing forecasts for flow rates and water levels during floods have to be associated with uncertainty estimates. The forecast sources of uncertainty are plural. For hydrological forecasts (rainfall-runoff performed using a deterministic hydrological model with basic physics, two main sources can be identified. The first obvious source is the forcing data: rainfall forecast data are supplied in real time by meteorological forecasting services to the Flood Forecasting Service within a range between a lowest and a highest predicted discharge. These two values define an uncertainty interval for the rainfall variable provided on a given watershed. The second source of uncertainty is related to the complexity of the modeled system (the catchment impacted by the hydro-meteorological phenomenon, the number of variables that may describe the problem and their spatial and time variability. The model simplifies the system by reducing the number of variables to a few parameters. Thus it contains an intrinsic uncertainty. This model uncertainty is assessed by comparing simulated and observed rates for a large number of hydro-meteorological events. We propose a method based on fuzzy arithmetic to estimate the possible range of flow rates (and levels of water making a forecast based on possible rainfalls provided by forcing and uncertainty model. The model uncertainty is here expressed as a range of possible values. Both rainfall and model uncertainties are combined with fuzzy arithmetic. This method allows to evaluate the prediction uncertainty range. The Flood Forecasting Service of Oise and Aisne rivers, in particular, monitors the upstream watershed of the Oise at Hirson. This watershed’s area is 310 km2. Its response time is about 10 hours. Several hydrological models are calibrated for flood forecasting in this watershed and use the rainfall forecast. This method presents the advantage to be easily implemented. Moreover, it permits to be carried out
Uncertainty in Forest Net Present Value Estimations
Ilona Pietilä
2010-09-01
Full Text Available Uncertainty related to inventory data, growth models and timber price fluctuation was investigated in the assessment of forest property net present value (NPV. The degree of uncertainty associated with inventory data was obtained from previous area-based airborne laser scanning (ALS inventory studies. The study was performed, applying the Monte Carlo simulation, using stand-level growth and yield projection models and three alternative rates of interest (3, 4 and 5%. Timber price fluctuation was portrayed with geometric mean-reverting (GMR price models. The analysis was conducted for four alternative forest properties having varying compartment structures: (A a property having an even development class distribution, (B sapling stands, (C young thinning stands, and (D mature stands. Simulations resulted in predicted yield value (predicted NPV distributions at both stand and property levels. Our results showed that ALS inventory errors were the most prominent source of uncertainty, leading to a 5.1–7.5% relative deviation of property-level NPV when an interest rate of 3% was applied. Interestingly, ALS inventory led to significant biases at the property level, ranging from 8.9% to 14.1% (3% interest rate. ALS inventory-based bias was the most significant in mature stand properties. Errors related to the growth predictions led to a relative standard deviation in NPV, varying from 1.5% to 4.1%. Growth model-related uncertainty was most significant in sapling stand properties. Timber price fluctuation caused the relative standard deviations ranged from 3.4% to 6.4% (3% interest rate. The combined relative variation caused by inventory errors, growth model errors and timber price fluctuation varied, depending on the property type and applied rates of interest, from 6.4% to 12.6%. By applying the methodology described here, one may take into account the effects of various uncertainty factors in the prediction of forest yield value and to supply the
Comparison of uncertainty in fatigue tests obtained by the Monte Carlo method in two softwares
Trevisan, Lisiane; Kapper Fabricio, Daniel Antonio; Reguly, Afonso
2016-07-01
The Supplement 1 to the “Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement” indicates the Monte Carlo method for calculating the expanded measurement uncertainty. The objective of this work is to compare the measurement uncertainty values obtained via Monte Carlo method through two commercial softwares (Matlab® and Crystal Ball®) for the parameter ‘adjusted strain’, obtained from fatigue tests. Simulations were carried out using different number of iterations and different levels of confidence. The results showed that there are short differences between the measurement uncertainty values generated by different software.
Tolerance for uncertainty in elderly people
KHRYSTYNA KACHMARYK
2014-09-01
Full Text Available The aim of the study. The aim of the paper is a comparison of tolerance to uncertainty in two groups of elderly: the students of the University of the Third Age (UTA and older people who are not enrolled but help to educate grandchildren. A relation to uncertainty was shown to influence on decision making strategy of elderly that indicates on importance of the researches. Methods. To obtain the objectives of the paper the following methods were used: 1 Personal change readiness survey (PCRS adapted by Nickolay Bazhanov and Galina Bardiyer; 2 Tolerance Ambiguity Scale (TAS adapted by Galina Soldatova; 3 Freiburg personality inventory (FPI and 4 The questionnaire of self-relation by Vladimir Stolin and Sergej Panteleev. 40 socially involved elderly people were investigated according the above methods, 20 from UTA and 20 who are not studied and served as control group. Results. It was shown that relations of tolerance to uncertainty in the study group of students of the University of the Third Age substantially differ from relations of tolerance to uncertainty in group of older people who do not learn. The majority of students of the University of the Third Age have an inherent low tolerance for uncertainty, which is associated with an increase in expression personality traits and characteristics in self-relation. The group of the elderly who are not enrolled increasingly shows tolerance of uncertainty, focusing on the social and trusting relationship to meet the needs of communication, and the ability to manage their own emotions and desires than a group of Third Age university students. Conclusions. The results of experimental research of the third age university student’s peculiarities of the tolerance to uncertainty were outlined. It was found that decision making in the ambiguity situations concerning social interaction is well developed in elderly who do not study. The students of the University of Third Age have greater needs in
Carbon accounting and economic model uncertainty of emissions from biofuels-induced land use change.
Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'Hare, Michael
2015-03-03
Few of the numerous published studies of the emissions from biofuels-induced "indirect" land use change (ILUC) attempt to propagate and quantify uncertainty, and those that have done so have restricted their analysis to a portion of the modeling systems used. In this study, we pair a global, computable general equilibrium model with a model of greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change to quantify the parametric uncertainty in the paired modeling system's estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from ILUC induced by expanded production of three biofuels. We find that for the three fuel systems examined--US corn ethanol, Brazilian sugar cane ethanol, and US soybean biodiesel--95% of the results occurred within ±20 g CO2e MJ(-1) of the mean (coefficient of variation of 20-45%), with economic model parameters related to crop yield and the productivity of newly converted cropland (from forestry and pasture) contributing most of the variance in estimated ILUC emissions intensity. Although the experiments performed here allow us to characterize parametric uncertainty, changes to the model structure have the potential to shift the mean by tens of grams of CO2e per megajoule and further broaden distributions for ILUC emission intensities.
Nuclear Data Uncertainties in 2004: A Perspective
Smith, Donald L.
2005-05-01
Interest in nuclear data uncertainties is growing robustly after having languished for several years. Renewed attention to this topic is being motivated by the practical need for assuring that nuclear systems will be safe, reliable, and cost effective, according to the individual requirements of each specific nuclear technology. Furthermore, applications are emerging in certain areas of basic nuclear science, e.g., in astrophysics, where, until recently, attention has focused mainly on understanding basic concepts and physics principles rather than on dealing with detailed quantitative information. The availability of fast computers and the concurrent development of sophisticated software enable nuclear data uncertainty information to be used more effectively than ever before. For example, data uncertainties and associated methodologies play useful roles in advanced data measurement, analysis, and evaluation procedures. Unfortunately, the current inventory of requisite uncertainty information is rather limited when measured against these evolving demands. Consequently, there is a real need to generate more comprehensive and reasonable nuclear data uncertainty information, and to make this available relatively soon in suitable form for use in the computer codes employed for nuclear analyses and the development of advanced nuclear energy systems. This conference contribution discusses several conceptual and technical issues that need to be addressed in meeting this demand during the next few years. The role of data uncertainties in several areas of nuclear science will also be mentioned briefly. Finally, the opportunities that ultimately will be afforded by the availability of more extensive and reasonable uncertainty information, and some technical challenges to master, will also be explored in this paper.
Lubricin in human breast tissue expander capsules.
Cheriyan, Thomas; Guo, Lifei; Orgill, Dennis P; Padera, Robert F; Schmid, Thomas M; Spector, Myron
2012-10-01
Capsular contraction is the most common complication of breast reconstruction surgery. While presence of the contractile protein alpha smooth muscle actin (α-SMA) is considered among the causes of capsular contraction, the exact etiology and pathophysiology is not fully understood. The objective of this study was to investigate the possible role of lubricin in capsular formation and contraction by determining the presence and distribution of the lubricating protein lubricin in human breast tissue expander capsules. Related aims were to evaluate select histopathologic features of the capsules, and the percentage of cells expressing α-SMA, which reflects the myofibroblast phenotype. Capsules from tissue expanders were obtained from eight patients. Lubricin, at the tissue-implant interface, in the extracellular matrix, and in cells, and α-SMA-containing cells were evaluated immunohistochemically. The notable finding was that lubricin was identified in all tissue expander capsules: as a discrete layer at the tissue-implant interface, extracellular, and intracellular. There was a greater amount of lubricin in the extracellular matrix in the intimal-subintimal zone when compared with the tissue away from the implant. Varying degrees of synovial metaplasia were seen at the tissue-implant interface. α-SMA-containing cells were also seen in all but one patient. The findings might help us better understand factors involved in capsule formation.
Model Uncertainty for Bilinear Hysteretic Systems
1984-01-01
is related to the concept of a failure surface (or limit state surface) in the n-dimensional basic variable space then model uncertainty is at least due to the neglected variables, the modelling of the failure surface and the computational technique used. A more precise definition is given in section 2...
Investment under Uncertainty and Financial Crisis
Jensen, Camilla
The objective of the paper is to test the stability hypothesis – that foreign investors are relatively insulated from uncertainty and how it spills over on their investment adjustment cost. The Q model (implying that investments are explained by the fundamental value of the firm) is implemented w...
Stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty
Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.
2006-01-01
This paper provides empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from SPF survey participants over the period from 1969 to 1996. This link is much
Farm decision making under risk and uncertainty.
Backus, G.B.C.; Eidman, V.R.; Dijkhuizen, A.A.
1997-01-01
Relevant portions of the risk literature are reviewed, relating them to observed behaviour in farm decision-making. Relevant topics for applied agricultural risk research are proposed. The concept of decision making under risk and uncertainty is discussed by reviewing the theory of Subjective
Stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty
Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.
2006-01-01
This paper provides empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from SPF survey participants over the period from 1969 to 1996. This link is much
Fundamental uncertainty and stock market volatility
Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.
2008-01-01
We provide empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from participants in the Survey of Professional Forecasters over the period 1969 to 1996.
Earthquake Loss Estimation Uncertainties
Frolova, Nina; Bonnin, Jean; Larionov, Valery; Ugarov, Aleksander
2013-04-01
The paper addresses the reliability issues of strong earthquakes loss assessment following strong earthquakes with worldwide Systems' application in emergency mode. Timely and correct action just after an event can result in significant benefits in saving lives. In this case the information about possible damage and expected number of casualties is very critical for taking decision about search, rescue operations and offering humanitarian assistance. Such rough information may be provided by, first of all, global systems, in emergency mode. The experience of earthquakes disasters in different earthquake-prone countries shows that the officials who are in charge of emergency response at national and international levels are often lacking prompt and reliable information on the disaster scope. Uncertainties on the parameters used in the estimation process are numerous and large: knowledge about physical phenomena and uncertainties on the parameters used to describe them; global adequacy of modeling techniques to the actual physical phenomena; actual distribution of population at risk at the very time of the shaking (with respect to immediate threat: buildings or the like); knowledge about the source of shaking, etc. Needless to be a sharp specialist to understand, for example, that the way a given building responds to a given shaking obeys mechanical laws which are poorly known (if not out of the reach of engineers for a large portion of the building stock); if a carefully engineered modern building is approximately predictable, this is far not the case for older buildings which make up the bulk of inhabited buildings. The way population, inside the buildings at the time of shaking, is affected by the physical damage caused to the buildings is not precisely known, by far. The paper analyzes the influence of uncertainties in strong event parameters determination by Alert Seismological Surveys, of simulation models used at all stages from, estimating shaking intensity
Uncertainty quantification and stochastic modeling with Matlab
Souza de Cursi, Eduardo
2015-01-01
Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a relatively new research area which describes the methods and approaches used to supply quantitative descriptions of the effects of uncertainty, variability and errors in simulation problems and models. It is rapidly becoming a field of increasing importance, with many real-world applications within statistics, mathematics, probability and engineering, but also within the natural sciences. Literature on the topic has up until now been largely based on polynomial chaos, which raises difficulties when considering different types of approximation and does no
Uncertainty calculation in transport models and forecasts
Manzo, Stefano; Prato, Carlo Giacomo
in a four-stage transport model related to different variable distributions (to be used in a Monte Carlo simulation procedure), assignment procedures and levels of congestion, at both the link and the network level. The analysis used as case study the Næstved model, referring to the Danish town of Næstved2...... the uncertainty propagation pattern over time specific for key model outputs becomes strategically important. 1 Manzo, S., Nielsen, O. A. & Prato, C. G. (2014). The Effects of uncertainty in speed-flow curve parameters on a large-scale model. Transportation Research Record, 1, 30-37. 2 Manzo, S., Nielsen, O. A...
Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties
Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen
2009-01-01
This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario...
Quantification and Propagation of Nuclear Data Uncertainties
Rising, Michael E.
The use of several uncertainty quantification and propagation methodologies is investigated in the context of the prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) uncertainties and its impact on critical reactor assemblies. First, the first-order, linear Kalman filter is used as a nuclear data evaluation and uncertainty quantification tool combining available PFNS experimental data and a modified version of the Los Alamos (LA) model. The experimental covariance matrices, not generally given in the EXFOR database, are computed using the GMA methodology used by the IAEA to establish more appropriate correlations within each experiment. Then, using systematics relating the LA model parameters across a suite of isotopes, the PFNS for both the uranium and plutonium actinides are evaluated leading to a new evaluation including cross-isotope correlations. Next, an alternative evaluation approach, the unified Monte Carlo (UMC) method, is studied for the evaluation of the PFNS for the n(0.5 MeV)+Pu-239 fission reaction and compared to the Kalman filter. The UMC approach to nuclear data evaluation is implemented in a variety of ways to test convergence toward the Kalman filter results and to determine the nonlinearities present in the LA model. Ultimately, the UMC approach is shown to be comparable to the Kalman filter for a realistic data evaluation of the PFNS and is capable of capturing the nonlinearities present in the LA model. Next, the impact that the PFNS uncertainties have on important critical assemblies is investigated. Using the PFNS covariance matrices in the ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data library, the uncertainties of the effective multiplication factor, leakage, and spectral indices of the Lady Godiva and Jezebel critical assemblies are quantified. Using principal component analysis on the PFNS covariance matrices results in needing only 2-3 principal components to retain the PFNS uncertainties. Then, using the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) on the uncertain output
An uncertainty inventory demonstration - a primary step in uncertainty quantification
Langenbrunner, James R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Salazar, Issac F [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM
2009-01-01
Tools, methods, and theories for assessing and quantifying uncertainties vary by application. Uncertainty quantification tasks have unique desiderata and circumstances. To realistically assess uncertainty requires the engineer/scientist to specify mathematical models, the physical phenomena of interest, and the theory or framework for assessments. For example, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) specifically identifies uncertainties using probability theory, and therefore, PRA's lack formal procedures for quantifying uncertainties that are not probabilistic. The Phenomena Identification and Ranking Technique (PIRT) proceeds by ranking phenomena using scoring criteria that results in linguistic descriptors, such as importance ranked with words, 'High/Medium/Low.' The use of words allows PIRT to be flexible, but the analysis may then be difficult to combine with other uncertainty theories. We propose that a necessary step for the development of a procedure or protocol for uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the application of an Uncertainty Inventory. An Uncertainty Inventory should be considered and performed in the earliest stages of UQ.
Photovoltaic System Modeling. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses
Hansen, Clifford W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Curtis E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2015-08-01
We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling AC energy from ph otovoltaic systems . Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. We quantify u ncertainty i n the output of each model using empirical distribution s of each model's residuals. We propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models by sampli ng these distributions to obtain a n empirical distribution of a PV system's output. We consider models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane - of - array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power ; (5) reduce DC power for losses due to inefficient maximum power point tracking or mismatch among modules; and (6) convert DC to AC power . O ur analysis consider s a notional PV system com prising an array of FirstSolar FS - 387 modules and a 250 kW AC inverter ; we use measured irradiance and weather at Albuquerque, NM. We found the uncertainty in PV syste m output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. We found that unce rtainty in the models for POA irradiance and effective irradiance to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty in predicted daily energy. Our analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output predictions may yield the greatest improvements by focusing on the POA and effective irradiance models.
Climate policy uncertainty and investment risk
NONE
2007-06-21
Our climate is changing. This is certain. Less certain, however, is the timing and magnitude of climate change, and the cost of transition to a low-carbon world. Therefore, many policies and programmes are still at a formative stage, and policy uncertainty is very high. This book identifies how climate change policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour in the power sector. For power companies, where capital stock is intensive and long-lived, those risks rank among the biggest and can create an incentive to delay investment. Our analysis results show that the risk premiums of climate change uncertainty can add 40% of construction costs of the plant for power investors, and 10% of price surcharges for the electricity end-users. This publication tells what can be done in policy design to reduce these costs. Incorporating the results of quantitative analysis, this publication also shows the sensitivity of different power sector investment decisions to different risks. It compares the effects of climate policy uncertainty with energy market uncertainty, showing the relative importance of these sources of risk for different technologies in different market types. Drawing on extensive consultation with power companies and financial investors, it also assesses the implications for policy makers, allowing the key messages to be transferred into policy designs. This book is a useful tool for governments to improve climate policy mechanisms and create more certainty for power investors.
Uncertainty and sampling issues in tank characterization
Liebetrau, A.M.; Pulsipher, B.A.; Kashporenko, D.M. [and others
1997-06-01
A defensible characterization strategy must recognize that uncertainties are inherent in any measurement or estimate of interest and must employ statistical methods for quantifying and managing those uncertainties. Estimates of risk and therefore key decisions must incorporate knowledge about uncertainty. This report focuses statistical methods that should be employed to ensure confident decision making and appropriate management of uncertainty. Sampling is a major source of uncertainty that deserves special consideration in the tank characterization strategy. The question of whether sampling will ever provide the reliable information needed to resolve safety issues is explored. The issue of sample representativeness must be resolved before sample information is reliable. Representativeness is a relative term but can be defined in terms of bias and precision. Currently, precision can be quantified and managed through an effective sampling and statistical analysis program. Quantifying bias is more difficult and is not being addressed under the current sampling strategies. Bias could be bounded by (1) employing new sampling methods that can obtain samples from other areas in the tanks, (2) putting in new risers on some worst case tanks and comparing the results from existing risers with new risers, or (3) sampling tanks through risers under which no disturbance or activity has previously occurred. With some bound on bias and estimates of precision, various sampling strategies could be determined and shown to be either cost-effective or infeasible.
Petzinger, Tom
I am trying to make money in the biotech industry from complexity science. And I am doing it with inspiration that I picked up on the edge of Appalachia spending time with June Holley and ACEnet when I was a Wall Street Journal reporter. I took some of those ideas to Pittsburgh, in biotechnology, in a completely private setting with an economic development focus, but also with a mission t o return profit to private capital. And we are doing that. I submit as a hypothesis, something we are figuring out in the post- industrial era, that business evolves. It is not the definition of business, but business critically involves the design of systems in which uncertainty is treated as a certainty. That is what I have seen and what I have tried to put into practice.
2012-03-01
certify to : ISO 9001 (QMS), ISO 14001 (EMS), TS 16949 (US Automotive) etc. 2 3 DoD QSM 4.2 standard ISO /IEC 17025:2005 Each has uncertainty...298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 Laboratories – ISO /IEC 17025 Inspection Bodies – ISO /IEC 17020 RMPs – ISO Guide 34 (Reference...Materials) PT Providers – ISO 17043 Product Certifiers – ISO Guide 65 Government Programs: DoD ELAP, EPA Energy Star, CPSC Toy Safety, NRC, NIST
Risk, Uncertainty, and Entrepreneurship
Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam
2016-01-01
Theory predicts that entrepreneurs have distinct attitudes toward risk and uncertainty, but empirical evidence is mixed. To better understand these mixed results, we perform a large “lab-in-the-field” experiment comparing entrepreneurs to managers (a suitable comparison group) and employees (n D...... 21288). The results indicate that entrepreneurs perceive themselves as less risk averse than managers and employees, in line with common wisdom. However, when using experimental incentivized measures, the differences are subtler. Entrepreneurs are only found to be unique in their lower degree of loss...... aversion, and not in their risk or ambiguity aversion. This combination of results might be explained by our finding that perceived risk attitude is not only correlated to risk aversion but also to loss aversion. Overall, we therefore suggest using a broader definition of risk that captures this unique...
Traceability and uncertainty estimation in coordinate metrology
Hansen, Hans Nørgaard; Savio, Enrico; De Chiffre, Leonardo
2001-01-01
National and international standards have defined performance verification procedures for coordinate measuring machines (CMMs) that typically involve their ability to measure calibrated lengths and to a certain extent form. It is recognised that, without further analysis or testing, these results...... are insufficient to determine the task specific uncertainty of most measurements. Therefore, performance verification methods defined in current standards do not guarantee traceability of measurements performed with a CMM for all measurement tasks, and procedures for the assessment of task-related uncertainties...... are required. Depending on the requirements for uncertainty level, different approaches may be adopted to achieve traceability. Especially in the case of complex measurement situations and workpieces the procedures are not trivial. This paper discusses the establishment of traceability in coordinate metrology...
Nanosensing Backed by the Uncertainty Principle
I. Filikhin
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Possibility for a novel type of sensors for detecting nanosized substances (e.g., macromolecules or molecule clusters through their effects on electron tunneling in a double nanoscale semiconductor heterostructure is discussed. We studied spectral distributions of localized/delocalized states of a single electron in a double quantum well (DQW with relation to slight asymmetry perturbations. The asymmetry was modeled by modification of the dot shape and the confinement potential. Electron energy uncertainty is restricted by the differences between energy levels within the spectra of separated QWs. Hence, we established a direct relationship between the uncertainty of electron localization and the energy uncertainty. We have shown in various instances that a small violation of symmetry drastically affects the electron localization. These phenomena can be utilized to devise new sensing functionalities. The charge transport in such sensors is highly sensitive to minuscule symmetry violation caused by the detected substance. The detection of the electron localization constitutes the sensor signal.
Brashers, Dale E; Basinger, Erin D; Rintamaki, Lance S; Caughlin, John P; Para, Michael
2017-01-01
HIV creates substantial uncertainty for people infected with the virus, which subsequently affects a host of psychosocial outcomes critical to successful management of the disease. This study assessed the efficacy and durability of a theoretically driven, one-on-one peer support intervention designed to facilitate uncertainty management and enhance psychosocial functioning for patients newly diagnosed with HIV. Using a pretest-posttest control group design, 98 participants received information and training in specific communication strategies (e.g., disclosing to friends and family, eliciting social support, talking to health care providers, using the Internet to gather information, and building social networks through AIDS service organizations). Participants in the experimental group attended six 1-hour sessions, whereas control participants received standard of care for 12 months (after which they received the intervention). Over time, participants in the intervention fared significantly better regarding (a) illness uncertainty, (b) depression, and (c) satisfaction with social support than did those in the control group. Given the utility and cost-effectiveness of this intervention and the uncertainty of a multitude of medical diagnoses and disease experiences, further work is indicated to determine how this program could be expanded to other illnesses and to address related factors, such as treatment adherence and clinical outcomes.
The Coronal Loop Inventory Project: Expanded Analysis and Results
Schmelz, J. T.; Christian, G. M.; Chastain, R. A.
2016-11-01
We have expanded upon earlier work that investigates the relative importance of coronal loops with isothermal versus multithermal cross-field temperature distributions. These results are important for determining if loops have substructure in the form of unresolved magnetic strands. We have increased the number of loops targeted for temperature analysis from 19 to 207 with the addition of 188 new loops from multiple regions. We selected all loop segments visible in the 171 Å images of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) that had a clean background. Eighty-six of the new loops were rejected because they could not be reliably separated from the background in other AIA filters. Sixty-one loops required multithermal models to reproduce the observations. Twenty-eight loops were effectively isothermal, that is, the plasma emission to which AIA is sensitive could not be distinguished from isothermal emission, within uncertainties. Ten loops were isothermal. Also, part of our inventory was one small flaring loop, one very cool loop whose temperature distribution could not be constrained by the AIA data, and one loop with inconclusive results. Our survey can confirm an unexpected result from the pilot study: we found no isothermal loop segments where we could properly use the 171-to-193 ratio method, which would be similar to the analysis done for many loops observed with TRACE and EIT. We recommend caution to observers who assume the loop plasma is isothermal, and hope that these results will influence the direction of coronal heating models and the effort modelers spend on various heating scenarios.
Medical decisions under uncertainty.
Carmi, A
1993-01-01
The court applies the criteria of the reasonable doctor and common practice in order to consider the behaviour of a defendant physician. The meaning of our demand that the doctor expects that his or her acts or omissions will bring about certain implications is that, according to the present circumstances and subject to the limited knowledge of the common practice, the course of certain events or situations in the future may be assumed in spite of the fog of uncertainty which surrounds us. The miracles and wonders of creation are concealed from us, and we are not aware of the way and the nature of our bodily functioning. Therefore, there seems to be no way to avoid mistakes, because in several cases the correct diagnosis cannot be determined even with the most advanced application of all information available. Doctors find it difficult to admit that they grope in the dark. They wish to form clear and accurate diagnoses for their patients. The fact that their profession is faced with innumerable and unavoidable risks and mistakes is hard to swallow, and many of them claim that in their everyday work this does not happen. They should not content themselves by changing their style. A radical metamorphosis is needed. They should not be tempted to formulate their diagnoses in 'neutral' statements in order to be on the safe side. Uncertainty should be accepted and acknowledged by the profession and by the public at large as a human phenomenon, as an integral part of any human decision, and as a clear characteristic of any legal or medical diagnosis.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
Evaluation of measurement uncertainty of glucose in clinical chemistry.
Berçik Inal, B; Koldas, M; Inal, H; Coskun, C; Gümüs, A; Döventas, Y
2007-04-01
The definition of the uncertainty of measurement used in the International Vocabulary of Basic and General Terms in Metrology (VIM) is a parameter associated with the result of a measurement, which characterizes the dispersion of the values that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand. Uncertainty of measurement comprises many components. In addition to every parameter, the measurement uncertainty is that a value should be given by all institutions that have been accredited. This value shows reliability of the measurement. GUM, published by NIST, contains uncertainty directions. Eurachem/CITAC Guide CG4 was also published by Eurachem/CITAC Working Group in the year 2000. Both of them offer a mathematical model, for uncertainty can be calculated. There are two types of uncertainty in measurement. Type A is the evaluation of uncertainty through the statistical analysis and type B is the evaluation of uncertainty through other means, for example, certificate reference material. Eurachem Guide uses four types of distribution functions: (1) rectangular distribution that gives limits without specifying a level of confidence (u(x)=a/ radical3) to a certificate; (2) triangular distribution that values near to the same point (u(x)=a/ radical6); (3) normal distribution in which an uncertainty is given in the form of a standard deviation s, a relative standard deviation s/ radicaln, or a coefficient of variance CV% without specifying the distribution (a = certificate value, u = standard uncertainty); and (4) confidence interval.
Evaluation of cutting force uncertainty components in turning
Axinte, Dragos Aurelian; Belluco, Walter; De Chiffre, Leonardo
2000-01-01
A procedure is proposed for the evaluation of those uncertainty components of a single cutting force measurement in turning that are related to the contributions of the dynamometer calibration and the cutting process itself. Based on an empirical model including errors form both sources......, the uncertainty for a single measurement of cutting force is presented, and expressions for the expected uncertainty vs. cutting parameters are proposed. This approach gives the possibility of evaluating cutting force uncertainty components in turning, for a defined range of cutting parameters, based on few...
Uncertainty analysis in MCNP5 calculations for brachytherapy treatment
Gerardy, I., E-mail: gerardy@isib.be [Institut Superieur Industriel de Bruxelles, 150, Rue Royale, B-1000 Brussels (Belgium); Rodenas, J.; Gallardo, S. [Departamento de Ingenieria Quimica y Nuclear, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia (Spain)
2011-08-15
The Monte Carlo (MC) method can be applied to simulate brachytherapy treatment planning. The MCNP5 code gives, together with results, a statistical uncertainty associated with them. However, the latter is not the only existing uncertainty related to the simulation and other uncertainties must be taken into account. A complete analysis of all sources of uncertainty having some influence on results of the simulation of brachytherapy treatment is presented in this paper. This analysis has been based on the recommendations of the American Association for Physicist in Medicine (AAPM) and of the International Standard Organisation (ISO).
Uncertainty in biodiversity science, policy and management: a conceptual overview
Yrjö Haila
2014-10-01
Full Text Available The protection of biodiversity is a complex societal, political and ultimately practical imperative of current global society. The imperative builds upon scientific knowledge on human dependence on the life-support systems of the Earth. This paper aims at introducing main types of uncertainty inherent in biodiversity science, policy and management, as an introduction to a companion paper summarizing practical experiences of scientists and scholars (Haila et al. 2014. Uncertainty is a cluster concept: the actual nature of uncertainty is inherently context-bound. We use semantic space as a conceptual device to identify key dimensions of uncertainty in the context of biodiversity protection; these relate to [i] data; [ii] proxies; [iii] concepts; [iv] policy and management; and [v] normative goals. Semantic space offers an analytic perspective for drawing critical distinctions between types of uncertainty, identifying fruitful resonances that help to cope with the uncertainties, and building up collaboration between different specialists to support mutual social learning.
A review of uncertainty propagation in orbital mechanics
Luo, Ya-zhong; Yang, Zhen
2017-02-01
Orbital uncertainty propagation plays an important role in space situational awareness related missions such as tracking and data association, conjunction assessment, sensor resource management and anomaly detection. Linear models and Monte Carlo simulation were primarily used to propagate uncertainties. However, due to the nonlinear nature of orbital dynamics, problems such as low precision and intensive computation have greatly hampered the application of these methods. Aiming at solving these problems, many nonlinear uncertainty propagators have been proposed in the past two decades. To motivate this research area and facilitate the development of orbital uncertainty propagation, this paper summarizes the existing linear and nonlinear uncertainty propagators and their associated applications in the field of orbital mechanics. Frameworks of methods for orbital uncertainty propagation, the advantages and drawbacks of different methods, as well as potential directions for future efforts are also discussed.
Uncertainty analysis in acoustic investigations
2013-01-01
The problem of uncertainty assessment in acoustic investigations is presented in the hereby paper. The aspect of the uncertainty asymmetry in processing of data obtained in the measuring test of sound levels, determined in decibels, was sketched. On the basis of the analysis of data obtained in the continuous monitoring of road traffic noise in Krakow typical probability distributions for a day, evening and night were determined. The method of the uncertainty assessment based on the propagati...
Chemical model reduction under uncertainty
Najm, Habib
2016-01-05
We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.
Christensen, Hanne Bjerre; Poulsen, Mette Erecius; Pedersen, Mikael
2003-01-01
. In the present study, recommendations from the International Organisation for Standardisation's (ISO) Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty and the EURACHEM/CITAC guide Quantifying Uncertainty in Analytical Measurements were followed to estimate the expanded uncertainties for 153 pesticides in fruit......The estimation of uncertainty of an analytical result has become important in analytical chemistry. It is especially difficult to determine uncertainties for multiresidue methods, e.g. for pesticides in fruit and vegetables, as the varieties of pesticide/commodity combinations are many...
Benchmarking observational uncertainties for hydrology (Invited)
McMillan, H. K.; Krueger, T.; Freer, J. E.; Westerberg, I.
2013-12-01
There is a pressing need for authoritative and concise information on the expected error distributions and magnitudes in hydrological data, to understand its information content. Many studies have discussed how to incorporate uncertainty information into model calibration and implementation, and shown how model results can be biased if uncertainty is not appropriately characterised. However, it is not always possible (for example due to financial or time constraints) to make detailed studies of uncertainty for every research study. Instead, we propose that the hydrological community could benefit greatly from sharing information on likely uncertainty characteristics and the main factors that control the resulting magnitude. In this presentation, we review the current knowledge of uncertainty for a number of key hydrological variables: rainfall, flow and water quality (suspended solids, nitrogen, phosphorus). We collated information on the specifics of the data measurement (data type, temporal and spatial resolution), error characteristics measured (e.g. standard error, confidence bounds) and error magnitude. Our results were primarily split by data type. Rainfall uncertainty was controlled most strongly by spatial scale, flow uncertainty was controlled by flow state (low, high) and gauging method. Water quality presented a more complex picture with many component errors. For all variables, it was easy to find examples where relative error magnitude exceeded 40%. We discuss some of the recent developments in hydrology which increase the need for guidance on typical error magnitudes, in particular when doing comparative/regionalisation and multi-objective analysis. Increased sharing of data, comparisons between multiple catchments, and storage in national/international databases can mean that data-users are far removed from data collection, but require good uncertainty information to reduce bias in comparisons or catchment regionalisation studies. Recently it has