Expanded and combined uncertainty in measurements by GM counters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stankovic, K.; Arandjic, D.; Lazarevic, Dj.; Osmokrovic, P.
2007-01-01
This paper deals with possible ways of obtaining expanded and combined uncertainty in measurements for four types of GM counters with a same counter's tube, in cases when the contributors of these uncertainties are cosmic background radiation and induced overvoltage phenomena. Nowadays, as a consequence of electromagnetic radiation, the latter phenomenon is especially marked in urban environments. Based on experimental results obtained, it has been established that the uncertainties of an influenced random variable 'number of pulses from background radiation' and 'number of pulses induced by overvoltage' depend on the technological solution of the counter's reading system and contribute in different ways to the expanded and combined uncertainty in measurements of the applied types of GM counters. (author)
Additivity of entropic uncertainty relations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
René Schwonnek
2018-03-01
Full Text Available We consider the uncertainty between two pairs of local projective measurements performed on a multipartite system. We show that the optimal bound in any linear uncertainty relation, formulated in terms of the Shannon entropy, is additive. This directly implies, against naive intuition, that the minimal entropic uncertainty can always be realized by fully separable states. Hence, in contradiction to proposals by other authors, no entanglement witness can be constructed solely by comparing the attainable uncertainties of entangled and separable states. However, our result gives rise to a huge simplification for computing global uncertainty bounds as they now can be deduced from local ones. Furthermore, we provide the natural generalization of the Maassen and Uffink inequality for linear uncertainty relations with arbitrary positive coefficients.
Relational uncertainty in service dyads
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kreye, Melanie
2017-01-01
in service dyads and how they resolve it through suitable organisational responses to increase the level of service quality. Design/methodology/approach: We apply the overall logic of Organisational Information-Processing Theory (OIPT) and present empirical insights from two industrial case studies collected...... the relational uncertainty increased the functional quality while resolving the partner’s organisational uncertainty increased the technical quality of the delivered service. Originality: We make two contributions. First, we introduce relational uncertainty to the OM literature as the inability to predict...... and explain the actions of a partnering organisation due to a lack of knowledge about their abilities and intentions. Second, we present suitable organisational responses to relational uncertainty and their effect on service quality....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fu Yuhua
2015-03-01
Full Text Available The most famous contribution of Heisenberg is uncertainty principle. But the original uncertainty principle is improper. Considering all the possible situations (including the case that people can create laws and applying Neutrosophy and Quad-stage Method, this paper presents "certainty-uncertainty principles" with general form and variable dimension fractal form. According to the classification of Neutrosophy, "certainty-uncertainty principles" can be divided into three principles in different conditions: "certainty principle", namely a particle’s position and momentum can be known simultaneously; "uncertainty principle", namely a particle’s position and momentum cannot be known simultaneously; and neutral (fuzzy "indeterminacy principle", namely whether or not a particle’s position and momentum can be known simultaneously is undetermined. The special cases of "certain ty-uncertainty principles" include the original uncertainty principle and Ozawa inequality. In addition, in accordance with the original uncertainty principle, discussing high-speed particle’s speed and track with Newton mechanics is unreasonable; but according to "certaintyuncertainty principles", Newton mechanics can be used to discuss the problem of gravitational defection of a photon orbit around the Sun (it gives the same result of deflection angle as given by general relativity. Finally, for the reason that in physics the principles, laws and the like that are regardless of the principle (law of conservation of energy may be invalid; therefore "certaintyuncertainty principles" should be restricted (or constrained by principle (law of conservation of energy, and thus it can satisfy the principle (law of conservation of energy.
Two multi-dimensional uncertainty relations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Skala, L; Kapsa, V
2008-01-01
Two multi-dimensional uncertainty relations, one related to the probability density and the other one related to the probability density current, are derived and discussed. Both relations are stronger than the usual uncertainty relations for the coordinates and momentum
Energy and Uncertainty in General Relativity
Cooperstock, F. I.; Dupre, M. J.
2018-03-01
The issue of energy and its potential localizability in general relativity has challenged physicists for more than a century. Many non-invariant measures were proposed over the years but an invariant measure was never found. We discovered the invariant localized energy measure by expanding the domain of investigation from space to spacetime. We note from relativity that the finiteness of the velocity of propagation of interactions necessarily induces indefiniteness in measurements. This is because the elements of actual physical systems being measured as well as their detectors are characterized by entire four-velocity fields, which necessarily leads to information from a measured system being processed by the detector in a spread of time. General relativity adds additional indefiniteness because of the variation in proper time between elements. The uncertainty is encapsulated in a generalized uncertainty principle, in parallel with that of Heisenberg, which incorporates the localized contribution of gravity to energy. This naturally leads to a generalized uncertainty principle for momentum as well. These generalized forms and the gravitational contribution to localized energy would be expected to be of particular importance in the regimes of ultra-strong gravitational fields. We contrast our invariant spacetime energy measure with the standard 3-space energy measure which is familiar from special relativity, appreciating why general relativity demands a measure in spacetime as opposed to 3-space. We illustrate the misconceptions by certain authors of our approach.
Uncertainty Relations and Possible Experience
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gregg Jaeger
2016-06-01
Full Text Available The uncertainty principle can be understood as a condition of joint indeterminacy of classes of properties in quantum theory. The mathematical expressions most closely associated with this principle have been the uncertainty relations, various inequalities exemplified by the well known expression regarding position and momentum introduced by Heisenberg. Here, recent work involving a new sort of “logical” indeterminacy principle and associated relations introduced by Pitowsky, expressable directly in terms of probabilities of outcomes of measurements of sharp quantum observables, is reviewed and its quantum nature is discussed. These novel relations are derivable from Boolean “conditions of possible experience” of the quantum realm and have been considered both as fundamentally logical and as fundamentally geometrical. This work focuses on the relationship of indeterminacy to the propositions regarding the values of discrete, sharp observables of quantum systems. Here, reasons for favoring each of these two positions are considered. Finally, with an eye toward future research related to indeterminacy relations, further novel approaches grounded in category theory and intended to capture and reconceptualize the complementarity characteristics of quantum propositions are discussed in relation to the former.
Improvement of uncertainty relations for mixed states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Park, Yong Moon
2005-01-01
We study a possible improvement of uncertainty relations. The Heisenberg uncertainty relation employs commutator of a pair of conjugate observables to set the limit of quantum measurement of the observables. The Schroedinger uncertainty relation improves the Heisenberg uncertainty relation by adding the correlation in terms of anti-commutator. However both relations are insensitive whether the state used is pure or mixed. We improve the uncertainty relations by introducing additional terms which measure the mixtureness of the state. For the momentum and position operators as conjugate observables and for the thermal state of quantum harmonic oscillator, it turns out that the equalities in the improved uncertainty relations hold
Entropic uncertainty relations-a survey
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wehner, Stephanie; Winter, Andreas
2010-01-01
Uncertainty relations play a central role in quantum mechanics. Entropic uncertainty relations in particular have gained significant importance within quantum information, providing the foundation for the security of many quantum cryptographic protocols. Yet, little is known about entropic uncertainty relations with more than two measurement settings. In the present survey, we review known results and open questions.
Uncertainty relation and probability. Numerical illustration
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fujikawa, Kazuo; Umetsu, Koichiro
2011-01-01
The uncertainty relation and the probability interpretation of quantum mechanics are intrinsically connected, as is evidenced by the evaluation of standard deviations. It is thus natural to ask if one can associate a very small uncertainty product of suitably sampled events with a very small probability. We have shown elsewhere that some examples of the evasion of the uncertainty relation noted in the past are in fact understood in this way. We here numerically illustrate that a very small uncertainty product is realized if one performs a suitable sampling of measured data that occur with a very small probability. We introduce a notion of cyclic measurements. It is also shown that our analysis is consistent with the Landau-Pollak-type uncertainty relation. It is suggested that the present analysis may help reconcile the contradicting views about the 'standard quantum limit' in the detection of gravitational waves. (author)
Nonclassicality in phase-number uncertainty relations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matia-Hernando, Paloma; Luis, Alfredo
2011-01-01
We show that there are nonclassical states with lesser joint fluctuations of phase and number than any classical state. This is rather paradoxical since one would expect classical coherent states to be always of minimum uncertainty. The same result is obtained when we replace phase by a phase-dependent field quadrature. Number and phase uncertainties are assessed using variance and Holevo relation.
Nonclassicality in phase-number uncertainty relations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Matia-Hernando, Paloma; Luis, Alfredo [Departamento de Optica, Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Universidad Complutense, 28040 Madrid (Spain)
2011-12-15
We show that there are nonclassical states with lesser joint fluctuations of phase and number than any classical state. This is rather paradoxical since one would expect classical coherent states to be always of minimum uncertainty. The same result is obtained when we replace phase by a phase-dependent field quadrature. Number and phase uncertainties are assessed using variance and Holevo relation.
Optimal entropic uncertainty relation for successive measurements ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
measurements in quantum information theory. M D SRINIVAS ... derived by Robertson in 1929 [2] from the first principles of quantum theory, does not ... systems and may hence be referred to as 'uncertainty relations for distinct measurements'.
Ascertaining the uncertainty relations via quantum correlations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li, Jun-Li; Du, Kun; Qiao, Cong-Feng
2014-01-01
We propose a new scheme to express the uncertainty principle in the form of inequality of the bipartite correlation functions for a given multipartite state, which provides an experimentally feasible and model-independent way to verify various uncertainty and measurement disturbance relations. By virtue of this scheme, the implementation of experimental measurement on the measurement disturbance relation to a variety of physical systems becomes practical. The inequality in turn, also imposes a constraint on the strength of correlation, i.e. it determines the maximum value of the correlation function for two-body system and a monogamy relation of the bipartite correlation functions for multipartite system. (paper)
Majorization uncertainty relations for mixed quantum states
Puchała, Zbigniew; Rudnicki, Łukasz; Krawiec, Aleksandra; Życzkowski, Karol
2018-04-01
Majorization uncertainty relations are generalized for an arbitrary mixed quantum state ρ of a finite size N. In particular, a lower bound for the sum of two entropies characterizing the probability distributions corresponding to measurements with respect to two arbitrary orthogonal bases is derived in terms of the spectrum of ρ and the entries of a unitary matrix U relating both bases. The results obtained can also be formulated for two measurements performed on a single subsystem of a bipartite system described by a pure state, and consequently expressed as an uncertainty relation for the sum of conditional entropies.
Generalized Landau-Pollak uncertainty relation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miyadera, Takayuki; Imai, Hideki
2007-01-01
The Landau-Pollak uncertainty relation treats a pair of rank one projection valued measures and imposes a restriction on their probability distributions. It gives a nontrivial bound for summation of their maximum values. We give a generalization of this bound (weak version of the Landau-Pollak uncertainty relation). Our generalization covers a pair of positive operator valued measures. A nontrivial but slightly weak inequality that can treat an arbitrary number of positive operator valued measures is also presented. A possible application to the problem of separability criterion is also suggested
Heisenberg's principle of uncertainty and the uncertainty relations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Redei, Miklos
1987-01-01
The usual verbal form of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and the usual mathematical formulation (the so-called uncertainty theorem) are not equivalent. The meaning of the concept 'uncertainty' is not unambiguous and different interpretations are used in the literature. Recently a renewed interest has appeared to reinterpret and reformulate the precise meaning of Heisenberg's principle and to find adequate mathematical form. The suggested new theorems are surveyed and critically analyzed. (D.Gy.) 20 refs
Uncertainty in relative energy resolution measurements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Volkovitsky, P.; Yen, J.; Cumberland, L.
2007-01-01
We suggest a new method for the determination of the detector relative energy resolution and its uncertainty based on spline approximation of experimental spectra and a statistical bootstrapping procedure. The proposed method is applied to the spectra obtained with NaI(Tl) scintillating detectors and 137 Cs sources. The spectrum histogram with background subtracted channel-by-channel is modeled by cubic spline approximation. The relative energy resolution (which is also known as pulse height resolution and energy resolution), defined as the full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) divided by the value of peak centroid, is calculated using the intercepts of the spline curve with the line of the half peak height. The value of the peak height is determined as the point where the value of the derivative goes to zero. The residuals, which are normalized over the square root of counts in a given bin (y-coordinate), obey the standard Gaussian distribution. The values of these residuals are randomly re-assigned to a different set of y-coordinates where a new 'pseudo-experimental' data set is obtained after 'de-normalization' of the old values. For this new data set a new spline approximation is found and the whole procedure is repeated several hundred times, until the standard deviation of relative energy resolution becomes stabilized. The standard deviation of relative energy resolutions calculated for each 'pseudo-experimental' data set (bootstrap uncertainty) is considered to be an estimate for relative energy resolution uncertainty. It is also shown that the relative bootstrap uncertainty is proportional to, and generally only two to three times bigger than, 1/√(N tot ), which is the relative statistical count uncertainty (N tot is the total number of counts under the peak). The newly suggested method is also applicable to other radiation and particle detectors, not only for relative energy resolution, but also for any of the other parameters in a measured spectrum, like
Uncertainty relations for approximation and estimation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Jaeha, E-mail: jlee@post.kek.jp [Department of Physics, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Tsutsui, Izumi, E-mail: izumi.tsutsui@kek.jp [Department of Physics, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Theory Center, Institute of Particle and Nuclear Studies, High Energy Accelerator Research Organization (KEK), 1-1 Oho, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0801 (Japan)
2016-05-27
We present a versatile inequality of uncertainty relations which are useful when one approximates an observable and/or estimates a physical parameter based on the measurement of another observable. It is shown that the optimal choice for proxy functions used for the approximation is given by Aharonov's weak value, which also determines the classical Fisher information in parameter estimation, turning our inequality into the genuine Cramér–Rao inequality. Since the standard form of the uncertainty relation arises as a special case of our inequality, and since the parameter estimation is available as well, our inequality can treat both the position–momentum and the time–energy relations in one framework albeit handled differently. - Highlights: • Several inequalities interpreted as uncertainty relations for approximation/estimation are derived from a single ‘versatile inequality’. • The ‘versatile inequality’ sets a limit on the approximation of an observable and/or the estimation of a parameter by another observable. • The ‘versatile inequality’ turns into an elaboration of the Robertson–Kennard (Schrödinger) inequality and the Cramér–Rao inequality. • Both the position–momentum and the time–energy relation are treated in one framework. • In every case, Aharonov's weak value arises as a key geometrical ingredient, deciding the optimal choice for the proxy functions.
Uncertainty relations for approximation and estimation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Jaeha; Tsutsui, Izumi
2016-01-01
We present a versatile inequality of uncertainty relations which are useful when one approximates an observable and/or estimates a physical parameter based on the measurement of another observable. It is shown that the optimal choice for proxy functions used for the approximation is given by Aharonov's weak value, which also determines the classical Fisher information in parameter estimation, turning our inequality into the genuine Cramér–Rao inequality. Since the standard form of the uncertainty relation arises as a special case of our inequality, and since the parameter estimation is available as well, our inequality can treat both the position–momentum and the time–energy relations in one framework albeit handled differently. - Highlights: • Several inequalities interpreted as uncertainty relations for approximation/estimation are derived from a single ‘versatile inequality’. • The ‘versatile inequality’ sets a limit on the approximation of an observable and/or the estimation of a parameter by another observable. • The ‘versatile inequality’ turns into an elaboration of the Robertson–Kennard (Schrödinger) inequality and the Cramér–Rao inequality. • Both the position–momentum and the time–energy relation are treated in one framework. • In every case, Aharonov's weak value arises as a key geometrical ingredient, deciding the optimal choice for the proxy functions.
Entanglement detection via tighter local uncertainty relations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang Chengjie; Zhang Yongsheng; Guo Guangcan; Nha, Hyunchul
2010-01-01
We propose an entanglement criterion based on local uncertainty relations (LURs) in a stronger form than the original LUR criterion introduced by Hofmann and Takeuchi [H. F. Hofmann and S. Takeuchi, Phys. Rev. A 68, 032103 (2003)]. Using arbitrarily chosen operators (A k ) and (B k ) of subsystems A and B, the tighter LUR criterion, which may be used not only for discrete variables but also for continuous variables, can detect more entangled states than the original criterion.
On uncertainty relations in quantum mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ignatovich, V.K.
2004-01-01
Uncertainty relations (UR) are shown to have nothing specific for quantum mechanics (QM), being the general property valid for the arbitrary function. A wave function of a particle simultaneously having a precisely defined position and momentum in QM is demonstrated. Interference on two slits in a screen is shown to exist in classical mechanics. A nonlinear classical system of equations replacing the QM Schroedinger equation is suggested. This approach is shown to have nothing in common with the Bohm mechanics
Stronger Schrödinger-like uncertainty relations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Song, Qiu-Cheng; Qiao, Cong-Feng
2016-01-01
Highlights: • A stronger Schrödinger-like uncertainty relation in the sum of variances of two observables is obtained. • An improved Schrödinger-like uncertainty relation in the product of variances of two observables is obtained. • A stronger uncertainty relation in the sum of variances of three observables is proposed. - Abstract: Uncertainty relation is one of the fundamental building blocks of quantum theory. Nevertheless, the traditional uncertainty relations do not fully capture the concept of incompatible observables. Here we present a stronger Schrödinger-like uncertainty relation, which is stronger than the relation recently derived by Maccone and Pati (2014) [11]. Furthermore, we give an additive uncertainty relation which holds for three incompatible observables, which is stronger than the relation newly obtained by Kechrimparis and Weigert (2014) [12] and the simple extension of the Schrödinger uncertainty relation.
Role of information theoretic uncertainty relations in quantum theory
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jizba, Petr, E-mail: p.jizba@fjfi.cvut.cz [FNSPE, Czech Technical University in Prague, Břehová 7, 115 19 Praha 1 (Czech Republic); ITP, Freie Universität Berlin, Arnimallee 14, D-14195 Berlin (Germany); Dunningham, Jacob A., E-mail: J.Dunningham@sussex.ac.uk [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH (United Kingdom); Joo, Jaewoo, E-mail: j.joo@surrey.ac.uk [Advanced Technology Institute and Department of Physics, University of Surrey, Guildford, GU2 7XH (United Kingdom)
2015-04-15
Uncertainty relations based on information theory for both discrete and continuous distribution functions are briefly reviewed. We extend these results to account for (differential) Rényi entropy and its related entropy power. This allows us to find a new class of information-theoretic uncertainty relations (ITURs). The potency of such uncertainty relations in quantum mechanics is illustrated with a simple two-energy-level model where they outperform both the usual Robertson–Schrödinger uncertainty relation and Shannon entropy based uncertainty relation. In the continuous case the ensuing entropy power uncertainty relations are discussed in the context of heavy tailed wave functions and Schrödinger cat states. Again, improvement over both the Robertson–Schrödinger uncertainty principle and Shannon ITUR is demonstrated in these cases. Further salient issues such as the proof of a generalized entropy power inequality and a geometric picture of information-theoretic uncertainty relations are also discussed.
Role of information theoretic uncertainty relations in quantum theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jizba, Petr; Dunningham, Jacob A.; Joo, Jaewoo
2015-01-01
Uncertainty relations based on information theory for both discrete and continuous distribution functions are briefly reviewed. We extend these results to account for (differential) Rényi entropy and its related entropy power. This allows us to find a new class of information-theoretic uncertainty relations (ITURs). The potency of such uncertainty relations in quantum mechanics is illustrated with a simple two-energy-level model where they outperform both the usual Robertson–Schrödinger uncertainty relation and Shannon entropy based uncertainty relation. In the continuous case the ensuing entropy power uncertainty relations are discussed in the context of heavy tailed wave functions and Schrödinger cat states. Again, improvement over both the Robertson–Schrödinger uncertainty principle and Shannon ITUR is demonstrated in these cases. Further salient issues such as the proof of a generalized entropy power inequality and a geometric picture of information-theoretic uncertainty relations are also discussed
Workshop on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Han, D.; Kim, Y.S.; Zachary, W.W.
1992-02-01
The proceedings from the workshop are presented, and the focus was on the application of squeezed states. There are many who say that the potential for industrial applications is enormous, as the history of the conventional laser suggests. All those who worked so hard to produce squeezed states of light are continuing their efforts to construct more efficient squeezed-state lasers. Quite naturally, they are looking for new experiments using these lasers. The physical basis of squeezed states is the uncertainty relation in Fock space, which is also the basis for the creation and annihilation of particles in quantum field theory. Indeed, squeezed states provide a unique opportunity for field theoreticians to develop a measurement theory for quantum field theory
Large storage operations under climate change: expanding uncertainties and evolving tradeoffs
Giuliani, Matteo; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Vu, Phuong Nam; Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo
2016-03-01
In a changing climate and society, large storage systems can play a key role for securing water, energy, and food, and rebalancing their cross-dependencies. In this letter, we study the role of large storage operations as flexible means of adaptation to climate change. In particular, we explore the impacts of different climate projections for different future time horizons on the multi-purpose operations of the existing system of large dams in the Red River basin (China-Laos-Vietnam). We identify the main vulnerabilities of current system operations, understand the risk of failure across sectors by exploring the evolution of the system tradeoffs, quantify how the uncertainty associated to climate scenarios is expanded by the storage operations, and assess the expected costs if no adaptation is implemented. Results show that, depending on the climate scenario and the time horizon considered, the existing operations are predicted to change on average from -7 to +5% in hydropower production, +35 to +520% in flood damages, and +15 to +160% in water supply deficit. These negative impacts can be partially mitigated by adapting the existing operations to future climate, reducing the loss of hydropower to 5%, potentially saving around 34.4 million US year-1 at the national scale. Since the Red River is paradigmatic of many river basins across south east Asia, where new large dams are under construction or are planned to support fast growing economies, our results can support policy makers in prioritizing responses and adaptation strategies to the changing climate.
Some applications of uncertainty relations in quantum information
Majumdar, A. S.; Pramanik, T.
2016-08-01
We discuss some applications of various versions of uncertainty relations for both discrete and continuous variables in the context of quantum information theory. The Heisenberg uncertainty relation enables demonstration of the Einstein, Podolsky and Rosen (EPR) paradox. Entropic uncertainty relations (EURs) are used to reveal quantum steering for non-Gaussian continuous variable states. EURs for discrete variables are studied in the context of quantum memory where fine-graining yields the optimum lower bound of uncertainty. The fine-grained uncertainty relation is used to obtain connections between uncertainty and the nonlocality of retrieval games for bipartite and tripartite systems. The Robertson-Schrödinger (RS) uncertainty relation is applied for distinguishing pure and mixed states of discrete variables.
Advancing Uncertainty: Untangling and Discerning Related Concepts
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Janice Penrod
2002-12-01
Full Text Available Methods of advancing concepts within the qualitative paradigm have been developed and articulated. In this section, I describe methodological perspectives of a project designed to advance the concept of uncertainty using multiple qualitative methods. Through a series of earlier studies, the concept of uncertainty arose repeatedly in varied contexts, working its way into prominence, and warranting further investigation. Processes of advanced concept analysis were used to initiate the formal investigation into the meaning of the concept. Through concept analysis, the concept was deconstructed to identify conceptual components and gaps in understanding. Using this skeletal framework of the concept identified through concept analysis, subsequent studies were carried out to add ‘flesh’ to the concept. First, a concept refinement using the literature as data was completed. Findings revealed that the current state of the concept of uncertainty failed to incorporate what was known of the lived experience. Therefore, using interview techniques as the primary data source, a phenomenological study of uncertainty among caregivers was conducted. Incorporating the findings of the phenomenology, the skeletal framework of the concept was further fleshed out using techniques of concept correction to produce a more mature conceptualization of uncertainty. In this section, I describe the flow of this qualitative project investigating the concept of uncertainty, with special emphasis on a particular threat to validity (called conceptual tunnel vision that was identified and addressed during the phases of concept correction. Though in this article I employ a study of uncertainty for illustration, limited substantive findings regarding uncertainty are presented to retain a clear focus on the methodological issues.
Advancing Uncertainty: Untangling and Discerning Related Concepts
Janice Penrod
2002-01-01
Methods of advancing concepts within the qualitative paradigm have been developed and articulated. In this section, I describe methodological perspectives of a project designed to advance the concept of uncertainty using multiple qualitative methods. Through a series of earlier studies, the concept of uncertainty arose repeatedly in varied contexts, working its way into prominence, and warranting further investigation. Processes of advanced concept analysis were used to initiate the formal in...
Expanded uncertainty estimation methodology in determining the sandy soils filtration coefficient
Rusanova, A. D.; Malaja, L. D.; Ivanov, R. N.; Gruzin, A. V.; Shalaj, V. V.
2018-04-01
The combined standard uncertainty estimation methodology in determining the sandy soils filtration coefficient has been developed. The laboratory researches were carried out which resulted in filtration coefficient determination and combined uncertainty estimation obtaining.
Quantum uncertainty relation based on the mean deviation
Sharma, Gautam; Mukhopadhyay, Chiranjib; Sazim, Sk; Pati, Arun Kumar
2018-01-01
Traditional forms of quantum uncertainty relations are invariably based on the standard deviation. This can be understood in the historical context of simultaneous development of quantum theory and mathematical statistics. Here, we present alternative forms of uncertainty relations, in both state dependent and state independent forms, based on the mean deviation. We illustrate the robustness of this formulation in situations where the standard deviation based uncertainty relation is inapplica...
EDITORIAL: Squeezed states and uncertainty relations
Jauregue-Renaud, Rocio; Kim, Young S.; Man'ko, Margarita A.; Moya-Cessa, Hector
2004-06-01
This special issue of Journal of Optics B: Quantum and Semiclassical Optics is composed mainly of extended versions of talks and papers presented at the Eighth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations held in Puebla, Mexico on 9-13 June 2003. The Conference was hosted by Instituto de Astrofísica, Óptica y Electrónica, and the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. This series of meetings began at the University of Maryland, College Park, USA, in March 1991. The second and third workshops were organized by the Lebedev Physical Institute in Moscow, Russia, in 1992 and by the University of Maryland Baltimore County, USA, in 1993, respectively. Afterwards, it was decided that the workshop series should be held every two years. Thus the fourth meeting took place at the University of Shanxi in China and was supported by the International Union of Pure and Applied Physics (IUPAP). The next three meetings in 1997, 1999 and 2001 were held in Lake Balatonfüred, Hungary, in Naples, Italy, and in Boston, USA, respectively. All of them were sponsored by IUPAP. The ninth workshop will take place in Besançon, France, in 2005. The conference has now become one of the major international meetings on quantum optics and the foundations of quantum mechanics, where most of the active research groups throughout the world present their new results. Accordingly this conference has been able to align itself to the current trend in quantum optics and quantum mechanics. The Puebla meeting covered most extensively the following areas: quantum measurements, quantum computing and information theory, trapped atoms and degenerate gases, and the generation and characterization of quantum states of light. The meeting also covered squeeze-like transformations in areas other than quantum optics, such as atomic physics, nuclear physics, statistical physics and relativity, as well as optical devices. There were many new participants at this meeting, particularly
State-independent uncertainty relations and entanglement detection
Qian, Chen; Li, Jun-Li; Qiao, Cong-Feng
2018-04-01
The uncertainty relation is one of the key ingredients of quantum theory. Despite the great efforts devoted to this subject, most of the variance-based uncertainty relations are state-dependent and suffering from the triviality problem of zero lower bounds. Here we develop a method to get uncertainty relations with state-independent lower bounds. The method works by exploring the eigenvalues of a Hermitian matrix composed by Bloch vectors of incompatible observables and is applicable for both pure and mixed states and for arbitrary number of N-dimensional observables. The uncertainty relation for the incompatible observables can be explained by geometric relations related to the parallel postulate and the inequalities in Horn's conjecture on Hermitian matrix sum. Practical entanglement criteria are also presented based on the derived uncertainty relations.
New class of uncertainty relations for partially coherent light
Bastiaans, M.J.
1984-01-01
A class of uncertainty relations for partially coherent light is derived; the uncertainty relations in this class express the fact that the product of the effective widths of the space-domain intensity and the spatial-frequency-domain intensity of the light has a lower bound and that this lower
Uncertainty relations, zero point energy and the linear canonical group
Sudarshan, E. C. G.
1993-01-01
The close relationship between the zero point energy, the uncertainty relations, coherent states, squeezed states, and correlated states for one mode is investigated. This group-theoretic perspective enables the parametrization and identification of their multimode generalization. In particular the generalized Schroedinger-Robertson uncertainty relations are analyzed. An elementary method of determining the canonical structure of the generalized correlated states is presented.
Uncertainty relations for information entropy in wave mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bialynicki-Birula, I.; Pittsburgh Univ., Pa.; Mycielski, J.
1975-01-01
New uncertainty relations in quantum mechanics are derived. They express restrictions imposed by quantum theory on probability distributions of canonically conjugate variables in terms of corresponding information entropies. The Heisenberg uncertainty relation follows from those inequalities and so does the Gross-Nelson inequality. (orig.) [de
Generalized uncertainty relations and characteristic invariants for the multimode states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sudarshan, E.C.G.; Chiu, C.B.; Bhamathi, G.
1995-01-01
The close relationship between the zero-point energy, the uncertainty relation, coherent states, squeezed states, and correlated states for one mode is investigated. This group theoretic perspective of the problem enables the parametrization and identification of their multimode generalization. A simple and efficient method of determining the canonical structure of the generalized correlated states is presented. Implication of canonical commutation relations for correlations are not exhausted by the Heisenberg uncertainty relation, not even by the Schroedinger-Robertson uncertainty inequality, but there are relations in the multimode case that are the generalization of the Schroedinger-Robertson relation
Measurement Uncertainty Relations for Discrete Observables: Relative Entropy Formulation
Barchielli, Alberto; Gregoratti, Matteo; Toigo, Alessandro
2018-02-01
We introduce a new information-theoretic formulation of quantum measurement uncertainty relations, based on the notion of relative entropy between measurement probabilities. In the case of a finite-dimensional system and for any approximate joint measurement of two target discrete observables, we define the entropic divergence as the maximal total loss of information occurring in the approximation at hand. For fixed target observables, we study the joint measurements minimizing the entropic divergence, and we prove the general properties of its minimum value. Such a minimum is our uncertainty lower bound: the total information lost by replacing the target observables with their optimal approximations, evaluated at the worst possible state. The bound turns out to be also an entropic incompatibility degree, that is, a good information-theoretic measure of incompatibility: indeed, it vanishes if and only if the target observables are compatible, it is state-independent, and it enjoys all the invariance properties which are desirable for such a measure. In this context, we point out the difference between general approximate joint measurements and sequential approximate joint measurements; to do this, we introduce a separate index for the tradeoff between the error of the first measurement and the disturbance of the second one. By exploiting the symmetry properties of the target observables, exact values, lower bounds and optimal approximations are evaluated in two different concrete examples: (1) a couple of spin-1/2 components (not necessarily orthogonal); (2) two Fourier conjugate mutually unbiased bases in prime power dimension. Finally, the entropic incompatibility degree straightforwardly generalizes to the case of many observables, still maintaining all its relevant properties; we explicitly compute it for three orthogonal spin-1/2 components.
Reconsiderations of long debated subjects: uncertainty relations and Planck's constant
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dumitru, S.
2005-01-01
Some earlier unresolved controversies about uncertainty relations and quantum measurements have persisted to this day. They originate in the shortcomings of the conventional interpretation of uncertainty relations. In this paper, we showed that those shortcomings exposed credible, unavoidable facts making it imperative that the conventional interpretation should be dropped. So, the primitive uncertainty relations appeared as being either figments or fluctuation formulae. Subsequently, we showed that for quantum microparticles the Planck constant h acted as an indicator of stochasticity, a role entirely similar to the one the Boltzmann constant k played in respect of the thermodynamic stochasticity of macroscopic systems. (author)
Uncertainty relation and simultaneous measurements in quantum theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Busch, P.
1982-01-01
In this thesis the question for the interpretation of the uncertainty relation is picked up, and a program for the justification of its individualistic interpretation is formulated. By means of quantum mechanical models for the position and momentum measurement a justification of the interpretaton has been tried by reconstruction of the origin of the uncertainties from the conditions of the measuring devices and the determination of the relation of the measured results to the object. By means of a model of the common measurement it could be shown how the uncertainty relation results from the not eliminable mutual disturbance of the devices and the uncertainty relation for the measuring system. So finally the commutation relation is conclusive. For the illustration the split experiment is discussed, first according to Heisenberg with fixed split, then for the quantum mechanical, movable split (Bohr-Einstein). (orig./HSI) [de
Julien, Maxime; Gilbert, Alexis; Yamada, Keita; Robins, Richard J; Höhener, Patrick; Yoshida, Naohiro; Remaud, Gérald S
2018-01-01
The enrichment factor (ε) is a common way to express Isotope Effects (IEs) associated with a phenomenon. Many studies determine ε using a Rayleigh-plot, which needs multiple data points. More recent articles describe an alternative method using the Rayleigh equation that allows the determination of ε using only one experimental point, but this method is often subject to controversy. However, a calculation method using two points (one experimental point and one at t 0 ) should lead to the same results because the calculation is derived from the Rayleigh equation. But, it is frequently asked "what is the valid domain of use of this two point calculation?" The primary aim of the present work is a systematic comparison of results obtained with these two methodologies and the determination of the conditions required for the valid calculation of ε. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the two approaches, the expanded uncertainty (U) associated with determining ε has been calculated using experimental data from three published articles. The second objective of the present work is to describe how to determine the expanded uncertainty (U) associated with determining ε. Comparative methodologies using both Rayleigh-plot and two point calculation are detailed and it is clearly demonstrated that calculation of ε using a single data point can give the same result as a Rayleigh-plot provided one strict condition is respected: that the experimental value is measured at a small fraction of unreacted substrate (f < 30%). This study will help stable isotope users to present their results in a more rigorous expression: ε ± U and therefore to define better the significance of an experimental results prior interpretation. Capsule: Enrichment factor can be determined through two different methods and the calculation of associated expanded uncertainty allows checking its significance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Do the Uncertainty Relations Really have Crucial Significances for Physics?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dumitru S.
2010-10-01
Full Text Available It is proved the falsity of idea that the Uncertainty Relations (UR have crucial significances for physics. Additionally one argues for the necesity of an UR-disconnected quantum philosophy.
Tightness Entropic Uncertainty Relation in Quantum Markovian-Davies Environment
Zhang, Jun; Liu, Liang; Han, Yan
2018-05-01
In this paper, we investigate the tightness of entropic uncertainty relation in the absence (presence) of the quantum memory which the memory particle being weakly coupled to a decohering Davies-type Markovian environment. The results show that the tightness of the quantum uncertainty relation can be controlled by the energy relaxation time F, the dephasing time G and the rescaled temperature p, the perfect tightness can be arrived by dephasing and energy relaxation satisfying F = 2G and p = 1/2. In addition, the tightness of the memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation and the entropic uncertainty relation can be influenced mainly by the purity. While in memory-assisted model, the purity and quantum correlation can also influence the tightness actively while the quantum entanglement can influence the tightness slightly.
Uncertainty relations and semi-groups in B-algebras
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Papaloucas, L.C.
1980-07-01
Starting from a B-algebra which satisfies the conditions of a structure theorem, we obtain directly a Lie algebra for which the Lie ring satisfies automatically the Heisenberg uncertainty relations. (author)
Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations. Abstracts
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Masahito, Hayashi; Reynaud, S.; Jaekel, M.Th.; Fiuraaek, J.; Garcia-Patron, R.; Cerf, N.J.; Hage, B.; Chelkowski, S.; Franzen, A.; Lastzka, N.; Vahlbruch, N.; Danzmann, K.; Schnabel, R.; Hassan, S.S.; Joshi, A.; Jakob, M.; Bergou, J.A.; Kozlovskii, A.V.; Prakash, H.; Kumar, R.
2005-01-01
The purpose of the conference was to bring together people working in the field of quantum optics, with special emphasis on non-classical light sources and related areas, quantum computing, statistical mechanics and mathematical physics. As a novelty, this edition will include the topics of quantum imaging, quantum phase noise and number theory in quantum mechanics. This document gives the program of the conference and gathers the abstracts
Universal quantum uncertainty relations between nonergodicity and loss of information
Awasthi, Natasha; Bhattacharya, Samyadeb; SenDe, Aditi; Sen, Ujjwal
2018-03-01
We establish uncertainty relations between information loss in general open quantum systems and the amount of nonergodicity of the corresponding dynamics. The relations hold for arbitrary quantum systems interacting with an arbitrary quantum environment. The elements of the uncertainty relations are quantified via distance measures on the space of quantum density matrices. The relations hold for arbitrary distance measures satisfying a set of intuitively satisfactory axioms. The relations show that as the nonergodicity of the dynamics increases, the lower bound on information loss decreases, which validates the belief that nonergodicity plays an important role in preserving information of quantum states undergoing lossy evolution. We also consider a model of a central qubit interacting with a fermionic thermal bath and derive its reduced dynamics to subsequently investigate the information loss and nonergodicity in such dynamics. We comment on the "minimal" situations that saturate the uncertainty relations.
The role of general relativity in the uncertainty principle
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Padmanabhan, T.
1986-01-01
The role played by general relativity in quantum mechanics (especially as regards the uncertainty principle) is investigated. It is confirmed that the validity of time-energy uncertainty does depend on gravitational time dilation. It is also shown that there exists an intrinsic lower bound to the accuracy with which acceleration due to gravity can be measured. The motion of equivalence principle in quantum mechanics is clarified. (author)
Uncertainties related to the fault tree reliability data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Apostol, Minodora; Nitoi, Mirela; Farcasiu, M.
2003-01-01
Uncertainty analyses related to the fault trees evaluate the system variability which appears from the uncertainties of the basic events probabilities. Having a logical model which describes a system, to obtain outcomes means to evaluate it, using estimations for each basic event of the model. If the model has basic events that incorporate uncertainties, then the results of the model should incorporate the uncertainties of the events. Uncertainties estimation in the final result of the fault tree means first the uncertainties evaluation for the basic event probabilities and then combination of these uncertainties, to calculate the top event uncertainty. To calculate the propagating uncertainty, a knowledge of the probability density function as well as the range of possible values of the basic event probabilities is required. The following data are defined, using suitable probability density function: the components failure rates; the human error probabilities; the initiating event frequencies. It was supposed that the possible value distribution of the basic event probabilities is given by the lognormal probability density function. To know the range of possible value of the basic event probabilities, the error factor or the uncertainty factor is required. The aim of this paper is to estimate the error factor for the failure rates and for the human errors probabilities from the reliability data base used in Cernavoda Probabilistic Safety Evaluation. The top event chosen as an example is FEED3, from the Pressure and Inventory Control System. The quantitative evaluation of this top event was made by using EDFT code, developed in Institute for Nuclear Research Pitesti (INR). It was supposed that the error factors for the component failures are the same as for the failure rates. Uncertainty analysis was made with INCERT application, which uses the moment method and Monte Carlo method. The reliability data base used at INR Pitesti does not contain the error factors (ef
New Inequalities and Uncertainty Relations on Linear Canonical Transform Revisit
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xu Guanlei
2009-01-01
Full Text Available The uncertainty principle plays an important role in mathematics, physics, signal processing, and so on. Firstly, based on definition of the linear canonical transform (LCT and the traditional Pitt's inequality, one novel Pitt's inequality in the LCT domains is obtained, which is connected with the LCT parameters a and b. Then one novel logarithmic uncertainty principle is derived from this novel Pitt's inequality in the LCT domains, which is associated with parameters of the two LCTs. Secondly, from the relation between the original function and LCT, one entropic uncertainty principle and one Heisenberg's uncertainty principle in the LCT domains are derived, which are associated with the LCT parameters a and b. The reason why the three lower bounds are only associated with LCT parameters a and b and independent of c and d is presented. The results show it is possible that the bounds tend to zeros.
Decoherence effect on quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations
Ming, Fei; Wang, Dong; Huang, Ai-Jun; Sun, Wen-Yang; Ye, Liu
2018-01-01
Uncertainty principle significantly provides a bound to predict precision of measurement with regard to any two incompatible observables, and thereby plays a nontrivial role in quantum precision measurement. In this work, we observe the dynamical features of the quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations (EUR) for a pair of incompatible measurements in an open system characterized by local generalized amplitude damping (GAD) noises. Herein, we derive the dynamical evolution of the entropic uncertainty with respect to the measurement affecting by the canonical GAD noises when particle A is initially entangled with quantum memory B. Specifically, we examine the dynamics of EUR in the frame of three realistic scenarios: one case is that particle A is affected by environmental noise (GAD) while particle B as quantum memory is free from any noises, another case is that particle B is affected by the external noise while particle A is not, and the last case is that both of the particles suffer from the noises. By analytical methods, it turns out that the uncertainty is not full dependent of quantum correlation evolution of the composite system consisting of A and B, but the minimal conditional entropy of the measured subsystem. Furthermore, we present a possible physical interpretation for the behavior of the uncertainty evolution by means of the mixedness of the observed system; we argue that the uncertainty might be dramatically correlated with the systematic mixedness. Furthermore, we put forward a simple and effective strategy to reduce the measuring uncertainty of interest upon quantum partially collapsed measurement. Therefore, our explorations might offer an insight into the dynamics of the entropic uncertainty relation in a realistic system, and be of importance to quantum precision measurement during quantum information processing.
Symmetry, Contingency, Complexity: Accommodating Uncertainty in Public Relations Theory.
Murphy, Priscilla
2000-01-01
Explores the potential of complexity theory as a unifying theory in public relations, where scholars have recently raised problems involving flux, uncertainty, adaptiveness, and loss of control. Describes specific complexity-based methodologies and their potential for public relations studies. Offers an account of complexity theory, its…
A new uncertainty relation for angular momentum and angle
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kranold, H.U.
1984-01-01
An uncertainty relation of the form ΔL 2 ΔSo >=sup(h/2π)/sub(2) is derived for angular momentum and angle. The non-linear operator So measures angles and has a simple interpretation. Subject to very general conditions of rotational invariance the above relation is unique. Radial momentum is not quantized
Generalization of uncertainty relation for quantum and stochastic systems
Koide, T.; Kodama, T.
2018-06-01
The generalized uncertainty relation applicable to quantum and stochastic systems is derived within the stochastic variational method. This relation not only reproduces the well-known inequality in quantum mechanics but also is applicable to the Gross-Pitaevskii equation and the Navier-Stokes-Fourier equation, showing that the finite minimum uncertainty between the position and the momentum is not an inherent property of quantum mechanics but a common feature of stochastic systems. We further discuss the possible implication of the present study in discussing the application of the hydrodynamic picture to microscopic systems, like relativistic heavy-ion collisions.
The Second International Workshop on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations
Han, D. (Editor); Kim, Y. S.; Manko, V. I.
1993-01-01
This conference publication contains the proceedings of the Second International Workshop on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations held in Moscow, Russia, on 25-29 May 1992. The purpose of this workshop was to study possible applications of squeezed states of light. The Workshop brought together many active researchers in squeezed states of light and those who may find the concept of squeezed states useful in their research, particularly in understanding the uncertainty relations. It was found at this workshop that the squeezed state has a much broader implication than the two-photon coherent states in quantum optics, since the squeeze transformation is one of the most fundamental transformations in physics.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Momani, Amer Mohammad
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Capacity expansion generally requires large capital expenditure on illiquid assets. Therefore, decisions to enlarge capacity must support the organisation’s strategic objectives and provide valuable input for the budgeting process. This paper applies an expanded form of Real Options Analysis (ROA to generate and evaluate capacity expansion strategies under uncertainty in the construction material industry. ROA is applied to different expansion strategies associated with different demand scenarios. Evaluating a wider variety of strategies can reduce risk and sponsor decisions that maximise the firm’s value. The case study shows that the execution of a lead expansion strategy with 10-year intervals under a 50 per cent demand satisfaction scenario produces superior results.
Uncertainty related to Environmental Data and Estimated Extreme Events
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Burcharth, H. F.
The design loads on rubble mound breakwaters are almost entirely determined by the environmental conditions, i.e. sea state, water levels, sea bed characteristics, etc. It is the objective of sub-group B to identify the most important environmental parameters and evaluate the related uncertainties...... including those corresponding to extreme estimates typically used for design purposes. Basically a design condition is made up of a set of parameter values stemming from several environmental parameters. To be able to evaluate the uncertainty related to design states one must know the corresponding joint....... Consequently this report deals mainly with each parameter separately. Multi parameter problems are briefly discussed in section 9. It is important to notice that the quantified uncertainties reported in section 7.7 represent what might be regarded as typical figures to be used only when no more qualified...
Correlated quadratures of resonance fluorescence and the generalized uncertainty relation
Arnoldus, Henk F.; George, Thomas F.; Gross, Rolf W. F.
1994-01-01
Resonance fluorescence from a two-state atom has been predicted to exhibit quadrature squeezing below the Heisenberg uncertainty limit, provided that the optical parameters (Rabi frequency, detuning, laser linewidth, etc.) are chosen carefully. When the correlation between two quadratures of the radiation field does not vanish, however, the Heisenberg limit for quantum fluctuations might be an unrealistic lower bound. A generalized uncertainty relation, due to Schroedinger, takes into account the possible correlation between the quadrature components of the radiation, and it suggests a modified definition of squeezing. We show that the coherence between the two levels of a laser-driven atom is responsible for the correlation between the quadrature components of the emitted fluorescence, and that the Schrodinger uncertainty limit increases monotonically with the coherence. On the other hand, the fluctuations in the quadrature field diminish with an increasing coherence, and can disappear completely when the coherence reaches 1/2, provided that certain phase relations hold.
Interpretation of uncertainty relations for three or more observables
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shirokov, M.I.
2003-01-01
Conventional quantum uncertainty relations (URs) contain dispersions of two observables. Generalized URs are known which contain three or more dispersions. They are derived here starting with suitable generalized Cauchy inequalities. It is shown what new information the generalized URs provide. Similar interpretation is given to generalized Cauchy inequalities
Fifth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations
Han, D. (Editor); Janszky, J. (Editor); Kim, Y. S. (Editor); Man'ko, V. I. (Editor)
1998-01-01
The Fifth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations was held at Balatonfured, Hungary, on 27-31 May 1997. This series was initiated in 1991 at the College Park Campus of the University of Maryland as the Workshop on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations. The scientific purpose of this series was to discuss squeezed states of light, but in recent years the scope is becoming broad enough to include studies of uncertainty relations and squeeze transformations in all branches of physics including quantum optics and foundations of quantum mechanics. Quantum optics will continue playing the pivotal role in the future, but the future meetings will include all branches of physics where squeeze transformations are basic. As the meeting attracted more participants and started covering more diversified subjects, the fourth meeting was called an international conference. The Fourth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations was held in 1995 was hosted by Shanxi University in Taiyuan, China. The fifth meeting of this series, which was held at Balatonfured, Hungary, was also supported by the IUPAP. In 1999, the Sixth International Conference will be hosted by the University of Naples in 1999. The meeting will take place in Ravello near Naples.
Differentiating intolerance of uncertainty from three related but distinct constructs.
Rosen, Natalie O; Ivanova, Elena; Knäuper, Bärbel
2014-01-01
Individual differences in uncertainty have been associated with heightened anxiety, stress and approach-oriented coping. Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) is a trait characteristic that arises from negative beliefs about uncertainty and its consequences. Researchers have established the central role of IU in the development of problematic worry and maladaptive coping, highlighting the importance of this construct to anxiety disorders. However, there is a need to improve our understanding of the phenomenology of IU. The goal of this paper was to present hypotheses regarding the similarities and differences between IU and three related constructs--intolerance of ambiguity, uncertainty orientation, and need for cognitive closure--and to call for future empirical studies to substantiate these hypotheses. To assist with achieving this goal, we conducted a systematic review of the literature, which also served to identify current gaps in knowledge. This paper differentiates these constructs by outlining each definition and general approaches to assessment, reviewing the existing empirical relations, and proposing theoretical similarities and distinctions. Findings may assist researchers in selecting the appropriate construct to address their research questions. Future research directions for the application of these constructs, particularly within the field of clinical and health psychology, are discussed.
Another two dark energy models motivated from Karolyhazy uncertainty relation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sun, Cheng-Yi; Yang, Wen-Li; Song, Yu. [Northwest University, Institute of Modern Physics, Xian (China); Yue, Rui-Hong [Ningbo University, Faculty of Science, Ningbo (China)
2012-03-15
The Karolyhazy uncertainty relation indicates that there exists a minimal detectable cell {delta}t{sup 3} over the region t{sup 3} in Minkowski space-time. Due to the energy-time uncertainty relation, the energy of the cell {delta}t {sup 3} cannot be less {delta}t{sup -1}. Then we get a new energy density of metric fluctuations of Minkowski spacetime as {delta}t{sup -4}. Motivated by the energy density, we propose two new dark-energy models. One model is characterized by the age of the universe and the other is characterized by the conformal age of the universe. We find that in the two models, the dark energy mimics a cosmological constant in the late time. (orig.)
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
To reflect this uncertainty in the climate scenarios, the use of AOGCMs that explicitly simulate the carbon cycle and chemistry of all the substances are needed. The Hadley Centre has developed a version of the climate model that allows the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle and its feedback into climate, to be ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Silva, T.A. da
1988-01-01
The comparison between the uncertainty method recommended by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the and the International Weight and Measure Commitee (CIPM) are showed, for the calibration of clinical dosimeters in the secondary standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL). (C.G.C.) [pt
The Sobolev inequality and the Tsallis entropic uncertainty relation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rajagopal, A.K.
1995-01-01
The Heisenberg uncertainty relation is expressed in terms of the Tsallis entropies associated with the conjugate coordinate and momentum probability densities. By rewriting this in terms of a positive joint probability distribution suggested by Cohen and coworkers, a different insight into the statistical dependence of the quantum variables is obtained. A discussion of how this improves the previous results on this subject is given. (orig.)
Fourth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations
Han, D. (Editor); Peng, Kunchi (Editor); Kim, Y. S. (Editor); Manko, V. I. (Editor)
1996-01-01
The fourth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations was held at Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China, on June 5 - 9, 1995. This conference was jointly organized by Shanxi University, the University of Maryland (U.S.A.), and the Lebedev Physical Institute (Russia). The first meeting of this series was called the Workshop on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations, and was held in 1991 at College Park, Maryland. The second and third meetings in this series were hosted in 1992 by the Lebedev Institute in Moscow, and in 1993 by the University of Maryland Baltimore County, respectively. The scientific purpose of this series was initially to discuss squeezed states of light, but in recent years, the scope is becoming broad enough to include studies of uncertainty relations and squeeze transformations in all branches of physics, including, of course, quantum optics and foundations of quantum mechanics. Quantum optics will continue playing the pivotal role in the future, but the future meetings will include all branches of physics where squeeze transformations are basic transformation. This transition took place at the fourth meeting of this series held at Shanxi University in 1995. The fifth meeting in this series will be held in Budapest (Hungary) in 1997, and the principal organizer will be Jozsef Janszky of the Laboratory of Crystal Physics, P.O. Box 132, H-1052. Budapest, Hungary.
Heisenberg's uncertainty relation: Violation and reformulation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ozawa, Masanao
2014-01-01
The uncertainty relation formulated by Heisenberg in 1927 describes a trade-off between the error of a measurement of one observable and the disturbance caused on another complementary observable so that their product should be no less than a limit set by Planck's constant. In 1980, Braginsky, Vorontsov, and Thorne claimed that this relation leads to a sensitivity limit for gravitational wave detectors. However, in 1988 a model of position measurement was constructed that breaks both this limit and Heisenberg's relation. Here, we discuss the problems as to how we reformulate Heisenberg's relation to be universally valid and how we experimentally quantify the error and the disturbance to refute the old relation and to confirm the new relation.
Cauchy inequality and uncertainty relations for mixed states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shirokov, M.I.
2004-01-01
Cauchy inequality (CI) relates scalar products of two vectors and their norms. I point out other similar inequalities (SI). Starting with CI Schroedinger derived his uncertainty relation (UR). By using SI other various UR can be obtained. It is shown that they follow from the Schroedinger UR. Two generalizations of CI are obtained for mixed states described by density matrices. Using them two generalizations of UR for mixed states are derived. Both differ from the UR generalization known from the literature. The discussion of these generalizations is given
Realistic Approach of the Relations of Uncertainty of Heisenberg
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paul E. Sterian
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Due to the requirements of the principle of causality in the theory of relativity, one cannot make a device for the simultaneous measuring of the canonical conjugate variables in the conjugate Fourier spaces. Instead of admitting that a particle’s position and its conjugate momentum cannot be accurately measured at the same time, we consider the only probabilities which can be determined when working at subatomic level to be valid. On the other hand, based on Schwinger's action principle and using the quadridimensional form of the unitary transformation generator function of the quantum operators in the paper, the general form of the evolution equation for these operators is established. In the nonrelativistic case one obtains the Heisenberg's type evolution equations which can be particularized to derive Heisenberg's uncertainty relations. The analysis of the uncertainty relations as implicit evolution equations allows us to put into evidence the intrinsic nature of the correlation expressed by these equations in straight relations with the measuring process. The independence of the quantisation postulate from the causal evolution postulate of quantum mechanics is also put into discussion.
Bound entangled states violate a nonsymmetric local uncertainty relation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hofmann, Holger F.
2003-01-01
As a consequence of having a positive partial transpose, bound entangled states lack many of the properties otherwise associated with entanglement. It is therefore interesting to identify properties that distinguish bound entangled states from separable states. In this paper, it is shown that some bound entangled states violate a nonsymmetric class of local uncertainty relations [H. F. Hofmann and S. Takeuchi, Phys. Rev. A 68, 032103 (2003)]. This result indicates that the asymmetry of nonclassical correlations may be a characteristic feature of bound entanglement
Uncertainties related to numerical methods for neutron spectra unfolding
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Glodic, S.; Ninkovic, M.; Adarougi, N.A.
1987-10-01
One of the often used techniques for neutron detection in radiation protection utilities is the Bonner multisphere spectrometer. Besides its advantages and universal applicability for evaluating integral parameters of neutron fields in health physics practices, the outstanding problems of the method are data analysis and the accuracy of the results. This paper briefly discusses some numerical problems related to neutron spectra unfolding, such as uncertainty of the response matrix as a source of error, and the possibility of real time data reduction using spectrometers. (author)
Detecting quantum entanglement. Entanglement witnesses and uncertainty relations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guehne, O.
2004-01-01
This thesis deals with methods of the detection of entanglement. After recalling some facts and definitions concerning entanglement and separability, we investigate two methods of the detection of entanglement. In the first part of this thesis we consider so-called entanglement witnesses, mainly in view of the detection of multipartite entanglement. Entanglement witnesses are observables for which a negative expectation value indicates entanglement. We first present a simple method to construct these witnesses. Since witnesses are nonlocal observables, they are not easy to measure in a real experiment. However, as we will show, one can circumvent this problem by decomposing the witness into several local observables which can be measured separately. We calculate the local decompositions for several interesting witnesses for two, three and four qubits. Local decompositions can be optimized in the number of measurement settings which are needed for an experimental implementation. We present a method to prove that a given local decomposition is optimal and discuss with this the optimality of our decompositions. Then we present another method of designing witnesses which are by construction measurable with local measurements. Finally, we shortly report on experiments where some of the witnesses derived in this part have been used to detect three- and four-partite entanglement of polarized photons. The second part of this thesis deals with separability criteria which are written in terms of uncertainty relations. There are two different formulations of uncertainty relations since one can measure the uncertainty of an observable by its variance as well as by entropic quantities. We show that both formulations are useful tools for the derivation of separability criteria for finite-dimensional systems and investigate the resulting criteria. Our results in this part exhibit also some more fundamental properties of entanglement: We show how known separability criteria for
Statistical analysis of the uncertainty related to flood hazard appraisal
Notaro, Vincenza; Freni, Gabriele
2015-12-01
The estimation of flood hazard frequency statistics for an urban catchment is of great interest in practice. It provides the evaluation of potential flood risk and related damage and supports decision making for flood risk management. Flood risk is usually defined as function of the probability, that a system deficiency can cause flooding (hazard), and the expected damage, due to the flooding magnitude (damage), taking into account both the exposure and the vulnerability of the goods at risk. The expected flood damage can be evaluated by an a priori estimation of potential damage caused by flooding or by interpolating real damage data. With regard to flood hazard appraisal several procedures propose to identify some hazard indicator (HI) such as flood depth or the combination of flood depth and velocity and to assess the flood hazard corresponding to the analyzed area comparing the HI variables with user-defined threshold values or curves (penalty curves or matrixes). However, flooding data are usually unavailable or piecemeal allowing for carrying out a reliable flood hazard analysis, therefore hazard analysis is often performed by means of mathematical simulations aimed at evaluating water levels and flow velocities over catchment surface. As results a great part of the uncertainties intrinsic to flood risk appraisal can be related to the hazard evaluation due to the uncertainty inherent to modeling results and to the subjectivity of the user defined hazard thresholds applied to link flood depth to a hazard level. In the present work, a statistical methodology was proposed for evaluating and reducing the uncertainties connected with hazard level estimation. The methodology has been applied to a real urban watershed as case study.
Characterizing quantum correlations. Entanglement, uncertainty relations and exponential families
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Niekamp, Soenke
2012-04-20
This thesis is concerned with different characterizations of multi-particle quantum correlations and with entropic uncertainty relations. The effect of statistical errors on the detection of entanglement is investigated. First, general results on the statistical significance of entanglement witnesses are obtained. Then, using an error model for experiments with polarization-entangled photons, it is demonstrated that Bell inequalities with lower violation can have higher significance. The question for the best observables to discriminate between a state and the equivalence class of another state is addressed. Two measures for the discrimination strength of an observable are defined, and optimal families of observables are constructed for several examples. A property of stabilizer bases is shown which is a natural generalization of mutual unbiasedness. For sets of several dichotomic, pairwise anticommuting observables, uncertainty relations using different entropies are constructed in a systematic way. Exponential families provide a classification of states according to their correlations. In this classification scheme, a state is considered as k-correlated if it can be written as thermal state of a k-body Hamiltonian. Witness operators for the detection of higher-order interactions are constructed, and an algorithm for the computation of the nearest k-correlated state is developed.
Characterizing quantum correlations. Entanglement, uncertainty relations and exponential families
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Niekamp, Soenke
2012-01-01
This thesis is concerned with different characterizations of multi-particle quantum correlations and with entropic uncertainty relations. The effect of statistical errors on the detection of entanglement is investigated. First, general results on the statistical significance of entanglement witnesses are obtained. Then, using an error model for experiments with polarization-entangled photons, it is demonstrated that Bell inequalities with lower violation can have higher significance. The question for the best observables to discriminate between a state and the equivalence class of another state is addressed. Two measures for the discrimination strength of an observable are defined, and optimal families of observables are constructed for several examples. A property of stabilizer bases is shown which is a natural generalization of mutual unbiasedness. For sets of several dichotomic, pairwise anticommuting observables, uncertainty relations using different entropies are constructed in a systematic way. Exponential families provide a classification of states according to their correlations. In this classification scheme, a state is considered as k-correlated if it can be written as thermal state of a k-body Hamiltonian. Witness operators for the detection of higher-order interactions are constructed, and an algorithm for the computation of the nearest k-correlated state is developed.
Sixth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations
Han, D. (Editor); Kim, Y. S. (Editor); Solimento, S. (Editor)
2000-01-01
These proceedings contain contributions from about 200 participants to the 6th International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations (ICSSUR'99) held in Naples May 24-29, 1999, and organized jointly by the University of Naples "Federico II," the University of Maryland at College Park, and the Lebedev Institute, Moscow. This was the sixth of a series of very successful meetings started in 1990 at the College Park Campus of the University of Maryland. The other meetings in the series were held in Moscow (1992), Baltimore (1993), Taiyuan P.R.C. (1995) and Balatonfuered, Hungary (1997). The present one was held at the campus Monte Sant'Angelo of the University "Federico II" of Naples. The meeting sought to provide a forum for updating and reviewing a wide range of quantum optics disciplines, including device developments and applications, and related areas of quantum measurements and quantum noise. Over the years, the ICSSUR Conference evolved from a meeting on quantum measurement sector of quantum optics, to a wide range of quantum optics themes, including multifacet aspects of generation, measurement, and applications of nonclassical light (squeezed and Schrodinger cat radiation fields, etc.), and encompassing several related areas, ranging from quantum measurement to quantum noise. ICSSUR'99 brought together about 250 people active in the field of quantum optics, with special emphasis on nonclassical light sources and related areas. The Conference was organized in 8 Sections: Squeezed states and uncertainty relations; Harmonic oscillators and squeeze transformations; Methods of quantum interference and correlations; Quantum measurements; Generation and characterisation of non-classical light; Quantum noise; Quantum communication and information; and Quantum-like systems.
How to: understanding SWAT model uncertainty relative to measured results
Watershed models are being relied upon to contribute to most policy-making decisions of watershed management, and the demand for an accurate accounting of complete model uncertainty is rising. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is a widely used method for quantifying uncertainty i...
Fisher information, kinetic energy and uncertainty relation inequalities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Luo Shunlong
2002-01-01
By interpolating between Fisher information and mechanical kinetic energy, we introduce a general notion of kinetic energy with respect to a parameter of Schroedinger wavefunctions from a statistical inference perspective. Kinetic energy is the sum of Fisher information and an integral of a parametrized analogue of quantum mechanical current density related to phase. A family of integral inequalities concerning kinetic energy and moments are established, among which the Cramer-Rao inequality and the Weyl-Heisenberg inequality, are special cases. In particular, the integral inequalities involving the negative order moments are relevant to the study of electron systems. Moreover, by specifying the parameter to a scale, we obtain a family of inequalities of uncertainty relation type which incorporate the position and momentum observables symmetrically in a single quantity. (author)
Stakeholder relations in the oil sands : managing uncertainty
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
2009-05-15
Alberta's oil sands are now at the crossroads of a series of significant and complex global issues that will require careful negotiation by all stakeholders involved in the oil sands industry. This paper discussed methods of managing uncertainty and risk related to the oil sands industry's agenda for the future. Oil sands developers must continue to secure permission from communities and other key stakeholders in order to develop oil sand projects. Stakeholder relations between oil sands operators, First Nations, and Metis Nation communities must ensure that respect is maintained while environmental impacts are minimized and long-term economic benefits are secured for all parties. Environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs) must ensure that oil sands resources are developed responsibly, and that environmental standards are maintained. Seven key shifts in stakeholder relations resulting from the recent economic crisis were identified. These included (1) withdrawal from the multi-stakeholder process, (2) increased focus on government to demonstrate policy leadership, (3) a stronger push from ENGOs to express environmental concerns, (4) global lobby and public relations efforts from ENGOs, (5) companies retreating to local community stakeholders, (6) more active demands from First Nations and Metis Nations groups, and (7) companies challenging ENGO campaigns. The study concluded by suggesting that government leadership is needed to clear policy and regulatory frameworks for Canada's oil sands.
Uncertainty of Water-hammer Loads for Safety Related Systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Seung Chan; Yoon, Duk Joo [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., LT., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2013-10-15
In this study, the basic methodology is base on ISO GUM (Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurements). For a given gas void volumes in the discharge piping, the maximum pressure of water hammer is defined in equation. From equation, uncertainty parameter is selected as U{sub s} (superficial velocity for the specific pipe size and corresponding area) of equation. The main uncertainty parameter (U{sub s}) is estimated by measurement method and Monte Carlo simulation. Two methods are in good agreement with the extended uncertainty. Extended uncertainty of the measurement and Monte Carlo simulation is 1.30 and 1.34 respectively in 95% confidence interval. In 99% confidence interval, the uncertainties are 1.95 and 1.97 respectively. NRC Generic Letter 2008-01 requires nuclear power plant operators to evaluate the possibility of noncondensable gas accumulation for the Emergency Core Cooling System. Specially, gas accumulation can result in system pressure transient in pump discharge piping at a pump start. Consequently, this evolves into a gas water, a water-hammer event and the force imbalances on the piping segments. In this paper, MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) method is introduced in estimating the uncertainty of water hammer. The aim is to evaluate the uncertainty of the water hammer estimation results carried out by KHNP CRI in 2013.
Expanding CME-flare relations to other stellar systems
Moschou, Sofia P.; Drake, Jeremy J.; Cohen, Ofer
2017-05-01
Stellar activity is one of the main parameters in exoplanet habitability studies. While the effects of UV to X-ray emission from extreme flares on exoplanets are beginning to be investigated, the impact of coronal mass ejections is currently highly speculative because CMEs and their properties cannot yet be directly observed on other stars. An extreme superflare was observed in X-rays on the Algol binary system on August 30 1997, emitting a total of energy 1.4x 10^{37} erg and making it a great candidate for studying the upper energy limits of stellar superflares in solar-type (GK) stars. A simultaneous increase and subsequent decline in absorption during the flare was also observed and interpretted as being caused by a CME. Here we investigate the dynamic properties of a CME that could explain such time-dependent absorption and appeal to trends revealed from solar flare and CME statistics as a guide. Using the ice-cream cone model that is extensively used in solar physics to describe the three-dimensional CME structure, in combination with the temporal profile of the hydrogen column density evolution, we are able to characterize the CME and estimate its kinetic energy and mass. We examine the mass, kinetic and flare X-ray fluence in the context of solar relations to examine the extent to which such relations can be extrapolated to much more extreme stellar events.
Entropy-power uncertainty relations: towards a tight inequality for all Gaussian pure states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hertz, Anaelle; Jabbour, Michael G; Cerf, Nicolas J
2017-01-01
We show that a proper expression of the uncertainty relation for a pair of canonically-conjugate continuous variables relies on entropy power, a standard notion in Shannon information theory for real-valued signals. The resulting entropy-power uncertainty relation is equivalent to the entropic formulation of the uncertainty relation due to Bialynicki-Birula and Mycielski, but can be further extended to rotated variables. Hence, based on a reasonable assumption, we give a partial proof of a tighter form of the entropy-power uncertainty relation taking correlations into account and provide extensive numerical evidence of its validity. Interestingly, it implies the generalized (rotation-invariant) Schrödinger–Robertson uncertainty relation exactly as the original entropy-power uncertainty relation implies Heisenberg relation. It is saturated for all Gaussian pure states, in contrast with hitherto known entropic formulations of the uncertainty principle. (paper)
Sensitivity, uncertainty assessment, and target accuracies related to radiotoxicity evaluation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Palmiotti, G.; Salvatores, M.; Hill, R.N.
1994-01-01
Time-dependent sensitivity techniques, which have been used in the past for standard reactor applications, are adapted to calculate the impact of data uncertainties and to estimate target data accuracies in radiotoxicity evaluations. The methodology is applied to different strategies of radioactive waste management connected with the European Fast Reactor and the Integral Fast Reactor fuel cycles. Results are provided in terms of sensitivity coefficients of basic data (cross sections and decay constants), uncertainties of global radiotoxicity at different times of storing after discharge, and target data accuracies needed to satisfy maximum uncertainty limits
Reconsideration of the Uncertainty Relations and Quantum Measurements
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dumitru S.
2008-04-01
Full Text Available Discussions on uncertainty relations (UR and quantum measurements (QMS persisted until nowadays in publications about quantum mechanics (QM. They originate mainly from the conventional interpretation of UR (CIUR. In the most of the QM literarure, it is underestimated the fact that, over the years, a lot of deficiencies regarding CIUR were signaled. As a rule the alluded deficiencies were remarked disparately and discussed as punctual and non-essential questions. Here we approach an investigation of the mentioned deficiencies collected in a conclusive ensemble. Subsequently we expose a reconsideration of the major problems referring to UR and QMS. We reveal that all the basic presumption of CIUR are troubled by insurmountable deficiencies which require the indubitable failure of CIUR and its necessary abandonment. Therefore the UR must be deprived of their statute of crucialpieces for physics. So, the aboriginal versions of UR appear as being in postures of either (i thought-experimental fictions or (ii simple QM formulae and, any other versions of them, have no connection with the QMS. Then the QMS must be viewed as an additional subject comparatively with the usual questions of QM. For a theoretical description of QMS we propose an information-transmission model, in which the quantum observables are considered as random variables. Our approach directs to natural solutions and simplifications for many problems regarding UR and QMS.
Entanglement witness via quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation
Shi, Jiadong; Ding, Zhiyong; Wu, Tao; He, Juan; Yu, Lizhi; Sun, Wenyang; Wang, Dong; Ye, Liu
2017-12-01
By virtue of the quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation (EUR), we analyze entanglement witness via the efficiencies of the estimates proposed by Berta (2010 Nat. Phys. 6 659) and Pati (2012 Phys. Rev. A 86 042105). The results show that, without a structured reservoir, the entanglement regions witnessed by these EUR estimates are only determined by the chosen estimated setup, and have no correlation with the explicit form of the initial state. On the other hand, with the structured reservoirs, the time regions during which the entanglement can be witnessed, and the corresponding entanglement regions closely depend on the choice of the estimated setup, the initial state and the state purity p . Concretely, for a pure state with p=1 , the entanglement can be witnessed by both estimates, while for mixed states with p=0.78 , it can only be witnessed using the Pati estimate. What is more, we find that the time regions incorporating the Pati estimate become discontinuous for the initial state with ≤ft| {{φ }\\prime } \\right> ={≤ft(≤ft| 01 \\right> +≤ft| 10 \\right> \\right)}/{\\sqrt{2}} , and the corresponding entanglement regions remain the same; however the entanglement can only be witnessed once by utilizing the Berta estimate.
Reconsideration of the Uncertainty Relations and Quantum Measurements
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dumitru S.
2008-04-01
Full Text Available Discussions on uncertainty relations (UR and quantum measurements (QMS persisted until nowadays in publications about quantum mechanics (QM. They originate mainly from the conventional interpretation of UR (CIUR. In the most of the QM literarure, it is underestimated the fact that, over the years, a lot of deficiencies regarding CIUR were signaled. As a rule the alluded deficiencies were remarked disparately and dis- cussed as punctual and non-essential questions. Here we approach an investigation of the mentioned deficiencies collected in a conclusive ensemble. Subsequently we expose a reconsideration of the major problems referring to UR and QMS. We reveal that all the basic presumption of CIUR are troubled by insurmountable deficiencies which require the indubitable failure of CIUR and its necessary abandonment. Therefore the UR must be deprived of their statute of crucial pieces for physics. So, the aboriginal versions of UR appear as being in postures of either (i thought-experimental fictions or (ii sim- ple QM formulae and, any other versions of them, have no connection with the QMS. Then the QMS must be viewed as an additional subject comparatively with the usual questions of QM. For a theoretical description of QMS we propose an information- transmission model, in which the quantum observables are considered as random vari- ables. Our approach directs to natural solutions and simplifications for many problems regarding UR and QMS.
Concept of uncertainty in relation to the foresight research
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Magruk Andrzej
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Uncertainty is one of the most important features of many areas of social and economic life, especially in the forward-looking context. On the one hand, the degree of uncertainty is associated with the objective essence of randomness of the phenomenon, and on the other, with the subjective perspective of a man. Future-oriented perception of human activities is laden with an incomplete specificity of the analysed phenomena, their volatility, and lack of continuity. A man is unable to determine, with complete certainty, the further course of these phenomena. According to the author of this article, in order to significantly reduce the uncertainty while making strategic decisions in a complex environment, we should focus our actions on the future through systemic research of foresight. This article attempts to answer the following research questions: 1 What is the relationship between foresight studies in the system perspective to studies of the uncertainty? 2 What classes of foresight methods enable the research of uncertainty in the process of system inquiry of the future? This study conducted deductive reasoning based on the results of the analysis methods and criticism of literature.
Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.
1988-08-01
The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented
Mapping of uncertainty relations between continuous and discrete time.
Chiuchiù, Davide; Pigolotti, Simone
2018-03-01
Lower bounds on fluctuations of thermodynamic currents depend on the nature of time, discrete or continuous. To understand the physical reason, we compare current fluctuations in discrete-time Markov chains and continuous-time master equations. We prove that current fluctuations in the master equations are always more likely, due to random timings of transitions. This comparison leads to a mapping of the moments of a current between discrete and continuous time. We exploit this mapping to obtain uncertainty bounds. Our results reduce the quests for uncertainty bounds in discrete and continuous time to a single problem.
Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.
1988-08-01
The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented.
Psychological Entropy: A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty-Related Anxiety
Hirsh, Jacob B.; Mar, Raymond A.; Peterson, Jordan B.
2012-01-01
Entropy, a concept derived from thermodynamics and information theory, describes the amount of uncertainty and disorder within a system. Self-organizing systems engage in a continual dialogue with the environment and must adapt themselves to changing circumstances to keep internal entropy at a manageable level. We propose the entropy model of…
Uncertainty relations and topological-band insulator transitions in 2D gapped Dirac materials
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Romera, E; Calixto, M
2015-01-01
Uncertainty relations are studied for a characterization of topological-band insulator transitions in 2D gapped Dirac materials isostructural with graphene. We show that the relative or Kullback–Leibler entropy in position and momentum spaces, and the standard variance-based uncertainty relation give sharp signatures of topological phase transitions in these systems. (paper)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Garde, Anne Helene; Hansen, Ase Marie; Kristiansen, Jesper
2004-01-01
When measuring biomarkers in urine, volume (and time) or concentration of creatinine are both accepted methods of standardization for diuresis. Both types of standardization contribute uncertainty to the final result. The aim of the present paper was to compare the uncertainty introduced when usi...... increase in convenience for the participants, when collecting small volumes rather than complete 24 h samples....... the two types of standardization on 24 h samples from healthy individuals. Estimates of uncertainties were based on results from the literature supplemented with data from our own studies. Only the difference in uncertainty related to the two standardization methods was evaluated. It was found...... that the uncertainty associated with creatinine standardization (19-35%) was higher than the uncertainty related to volume standardization (up to 10%, when not correcting for deviations from 24 h) for 24 h urine samples. However, volume standardization introduced an average bias of 4% due to missed volumes...
Exploring entropic uncertainty relation in the Heisenberg XX model with inhomogeneous magnetic field
Huang, Ai-Jun; Wang, Dong; Wang, Jia-Ming; Shi, Jia-Dong; Sun, Wen-Yang; Ye, Liu
2017-08-01
In this work, we investigate the quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation in a two-qubit Heisenberg XX model with inhomogeneous magnetic field. It has been found that larger coupling strength J between the two spin-chain qubits can effectively reduce the entropic uncertainty. Besides, we observe the mechanics of how the inhomogeneous field influences the uncertainty, and find out that when the inhomogeneous field parameter b1. Intriguingly, the entropic uncertainty can shrink to zero when the coupling coefficients are relatively large, while the entropic uncertainty only reduces to 1 with the increase of the homogeneous magnetic field. Additionally, we observe the purity of the state and Bell non-locality and obtain that the entropic uncertainty is anticorrelated with both the purity and Bell non-locality of the evolution state.
Position-momentum uncertainty relations in the presence of quantum memory
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Furrer, Fabian; Berta, Mario; Tomamichel, Marco
2014-01-01
A prominent formulation of the uncertainty principle identifies the fundamental quantum feature that no particle may be prepared with certain outcomes for both position and momentum measurements. Often the statistical uncertainties are thereby measured in terms of entropies providing a clear oper....... As an illustration, we evaluate the uncertainty relations for position and momentum measurements, which is operationally significant in that it implies security of a quantum key distribution scheme based on homodyne detection of squeezed Gaussian states....
Tritium source-related systematic uncertainties of the KATRIN experiment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Seitz-Moskaliuk, Hendrik [Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Institut fuer experimentelle Kernphysik, Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany); Collaboration: KATRIN-Collaboration
2016-07-01
KATRIN will perform a direct, kinematics-based measurement of the neutrino mass with a sensitivity of 200 meV (90 % C. L.) reached after 3 years of measurement time. The neutrino mass is obtained by determining the shape of the spectrum of tritium β decay electrons close to the endpoint of 18.6 keV with a spectrometer of MAC-E filter type. To achieve the planned sensitivity, the systematic measurement uncertainties have to be carefully controlled and evaluated. Main sources of systematics are the MAC-E filter on the one hand and the source and transport section (STS) on the other hand. Most of the operational parameters of KATRIN have to be stable at or even below the per mille level and have to meet further strict requirements. This talk reviews the KATRIN systematics with a special focus on the STS. Early commissioning measurements to determine the main systematics are introduced.
SU-G-BRB-14: Uncertainty of Radiochromic Film Based Relative Dose Measurements
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Devic, S; Tomic, N; DeBlois, F; Seuntjens, J [McGill University, Montreal, QC (Canada); Lewis, D [RCF Consulting, LLC, Monroe, CT (United States); Aldelaijan, S [King Faisal Specialist Hospital & Research Center, Riyadh (Saudi Arabia)
2016-06-15
Purpose: Due to inherently non-linear dose response, measurement of relative dose distribution with radiochromic film requires measurement of absolute dose using a calibration curve following previously established reference dosimetry protocol. On the other hand, a functional form that converts the inherently non-linear dose response curve of the radiochromic film dosimetry system into linear one has been proposed recently [Devic et al, Med. Phys. 39 4850–4857 (2012)]. However, there is a question what would be the uncertainty of such measured relative dose. Methods: If the relative dose distribution is determined going through the reference dosimetry system (conversion of the response by using calibration curve into absolute dose) the total uncertainty of such determined relative dose will be calculated by summing in quadrature total uncertainties of doses measured at a given and at the reference point. On the other hand, if the relative dose is determined using linearization method, the new response variable is calculated as ζ=a(netOD)n/ln(netOD). In this case, the total uncertainty in relative dose will be calculated by summing in quadrature uncertainties for a new response function (σζ) for a given and the reference point. Results: Except at very low doses, where the measurement uncertainty dominates, the total relative dose uncertainty is less than 1% for the linear response method as compared to almost 2% uncertainty level for the reference dosimetry method. The result is not surprising having in mind that the total uncertainty of the reference dose method is dominated by the fitting uncertainty, which is mitigated in the case of linearization method. Conclusion: Linearization of the radiochromic film dose response provides a convenient and a more precise method for relative dose measurements as it does not require reference dosimetry and creation of calibration curve. However, the linearity of the newly introduced function must be verified. Dave Lewis
Uncertainty in estimating and mitigating industrial related GHG emissions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
El-Fadel, M.; Zeinati, M.; Ghaddar, N.; Mezher, T.
2001-01-01
Global climate change has been one of the challenging environmental concerns facing policy makers in the past decade. The characterization of the wide range of greenhouse gas emissions sources and sinks as well as their behavior in the atmosphere remains an on-going activity in many countries. Lebanon, being a signatory to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, is required to submit and regularly update a national inventory of greenhouse gas emissions sources and removals. Accordingly, an inventory of greenhouse gases from various sectors was conducted following the guidelines set by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The inventory indicated that the industrial sector contributes about 29% to the total greenhouse gas emissions divided between industrial processes and energy requirements at 12 and 17%, respectively. This paper describes major mitigation scenarios to reduce emissions from this sector based on associated technical, economic, environmental, and social characteristics. Economic ranking of these scenarios was conducted and uncertainty in emission factors used in the estimation process was emphasized. For this purpose, theoretical and experimental emission factors were used as alternatives to default factors recommended by the IPCC and the significance of resulting deviations in emission estimation is presented. (author)
Uncertainty Analysis of RBMK-Related Experimental Data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Urbonas, Rolandas; Kaliatka, Algirdas; Liaukonis, Mindaugas
2002-01-01
An attempt to validate state-of-the-art thermal hydraulic code ATHLET (GRS, Germany) on the basis of E-108 test facility was made. Originally this code was developed and validated for different type reactors than RBMK. Since state-of-art thermal hydraulic codes are widely used for simulation of RBMK reactors, further codes' implementation and validation is required. The phenomena associated with channel type flow instabilities and CHF were found to be an important step in the frame of the overall effort of state-of-the-art validation and application for RBMK reactors. In the paper one-channel approach analysis is presented. Thus, the oscillatory behaviour of the system was not detected. The results show dependence on the nodalization used in the heated channels, initial and boundary conditions and code selected models. It is shown that the code is able to predict a sudden heat structure temperature excursion, when critical heat flux is approached. GRS developed uncertainty and sensitivity methodology was employed in the analysis. (authors)
Experimental Test of Entropic Noise-Disturbance Uncertainty Relations for Spin-1/2 Measurements.
Sulyok, Georg; Sponar, Stephan; Demirel, Bülent; Buscemi, Francesco; Hall, Michael J W; Ozawa, Masanao; Hasegawa, Yuji
2015-07-17
Information-theoretic definitions for noise and disturbance in quantum measurements were given in [Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 050401 (2014)] and a state-independent noise-disturbance uncertainty relation was obtained. Here, we derive a tight noise-disturbance uncertainty relation for complementary qubit observables and carry out an experimental test. Successive projective measurements on the neutron's spin-1/2 system, together with a correction procedure which reduces the disturbance, are performed. Our experimental results saturate the tight noise-disturbance uncertainty relation for qubits when an optimal correction procedure is applied.
Interpretation of the peak areas in gamma-ray spectra that have a large relative uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Korun, M.; Maver Modec, P.; Vodenik, B.
2012-01-01
Empirical evidence is provided that the areas of peaks having a relative uncertainty in excess of 30% are overestimated. This systematic influence is of a statistical nature and originates in way the peak-analyzing routine recognizes the small peaks. It is not easy to detect this influence since it is smaller than the peak-area uncertainty. However, the systematic influence can be revealed in repeated measurements under the same experimental conditions, e.g., in background measurements. To evaluate the systematic influence, background measurements were analyzed with the peak-analyzing procedure described by Korun et al. (2008). The magnitude of the influence depends on the relative uncertainty of the peak area and may amount, in the conditions used in the peak analysis, to a factor of 5 at relative uncertainties exceeding 60%. From the measurements, the probability for type-II errors, as a function of the relative uncertainty of the peak area, was extracted. This probability is near zero below an uncertainty of 30% and rises to 90% at uncertainties exceeding 50%. - Highlights: ► A systematic influence affecting small peak areas in gamma-ray spectra is described. ► The influence originates in the peak locating procedure, using a pre-determined sensitivity. ► The predetermined sensitivity makes peak areas with large uncertainties to be overestimated. ► The influence depends on the relative uncertainty of the number of counts in the peak. ► Corrections exceeding a factor of 3 are attained at peak area uncertainties exceeding 60%.
Chen, Peng-Fei; Sun, Wen-Yang; Ming, Fei; Huang, Ai-Jun; Wang, Dong; Ye, Liu
2018-01-01
Quantum objects are susceptible to noise from their surrounding environments, interaction with which inevitably gives rise to quantum decoherence or dissipation effects. In this work, we examine how different types of local noise under an open system affect entropic uncertainty relations for two incompatible measurements. Explicitly, we observe the dynamics of the entropic uncertainty in the presence of quantum memory under two canonical categories of noisy environments: unital (phase flip) and nonunital (amplitude damping). Our study shows that the measurement uncertainty exhibits a non-monotonic dynamical behavior—that is, the amount of the uncertainty will first inflate, and subsequently decrease, with the growth of decoherence strengths in the two channels. In contrast, the uncertainty decreases monotonically with the growth of the purity of the initial state shared in prior. In order to reduce the measurement uncertainty in noisy environments, we put forward a remarkably effective strategy to steer the magnitude of uncertainty by means of a local non-unitary operation (i.e. weak measurement) on the qubit of interest. It turns out that this non-unitary operation can greatly reduce the entropic uncertainty, upon tuning the operation strength. Our investigations might thereby offer an insight into the dynamics and steering of entropic uncertainty in open systems.
On entropic uncertainty relations in the presence of a minimal length
Rastegin, Alexey E.
2017-07-01
Entropic uncertainty relations for the position and momentum within the generalized uncertainty principle are examined. Studies of this principle are motivated by the existence of a minimal observable length. Then the position and momentum operators satisfy the modified commutation relation, for which more than one algebraic representation is known. One of them is described by auxiliary momentum so that the momentum and coordinate wave functions are connected by the Fourier transform. However, the probability density functions of the physically true and auxiliary momenta are different. As the corresponding entropies differ, known entropic uncertainty relations are changed. Using differential Shannon entropies, we give a state-dependent formulation with correction term. State-independent uncertainty relations are obtained in terms of the Rényi entropies and the Tsallis entropies with binning. Such relations allow one to take into account a finiteness of measurement resolution.
Uncertainty relation on a world crystal and its applications to micro black holes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen; Scardigli, Fabio
2010-01-01
We formulate generalized uncertainty relations in a crystal-like universe - a 'world crystal' - whose lattice spacing is of the order of Planck length. In the particular case when energies lie near the border of the Brillouin zone, i.e., for Planckian energies, the uncertainty relation for position and momenta does not pose any lower bound on involved uncertainties. We apply our results to micro black holes physics, where we derive a new mass-temperature relation for Schwarzschild micro black holes. In contrast to standard results based on Heisenberg and stringy uncertainty relations, our mass-temperature formula predicts both a finite Hawking's temperature and a zero rest-mass remnant at the end of the micro black hole evaporation. We also briefly mention some connections of the world-crystal paradigm with 't Hooft's quantization and double special relativity.
Ming, Fei; Wang, Dong; Shi, Wei-Nan; Huang, Ai-Jun; Sun, Wen-Yang; Ye, Liu
2018-04-01
The uncertainty principle is recognized as an elementary ingredient of quantum theory and sets up a significant bound to predict outcome of measurement for a couple of incompatible observables. In this work, we develop dynamical features of quantum memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations (QMA-EUR) in a two-qubit Heisenberg XXZ spin chain with an inhomogeneous magnetic field. We specifically derive the dynamical evolutions of the entropic uncertainty with respect to the measurement in the Heisenberg XXZ model when spin A is initially correlated with quantum memory B. It has been found that the larger coupling strength J of the ferromagnetism ( J 0 ) chains can effectively degrade the measuring uncertainty. Besides, it turns out that the higher temperature can induce the inflation of the uncertainty because the thermal entanglement becomes relatively weak in this scenario, and there exists a distinct dynamical behavior of the uncertainty when an inhomogeneous magnetic field emerges. With the growing magnetic field | B | , the variation of the entropic uncertainty will be non-monotonic. Meanwhile, we compare several different optimized bounds existing with the initial bound proposed by Berta et al. and consequently conclude Adabi et al.'s result is optimal. Moreover, we also investigate the mixedness of the system of interest, dramatically associated with the uncertainty. Remarkably, we put forward a possible physical interpretation to explain the evolutionary phenomenon of the uncertainty. Finally, we take advantage of a local filtering operation to steer the magnitude of the uncertainty. Therefore, our explorations may shed light on the entropic uncertainty under the Heisenberg XXZ model and hence be of importance to quantum precision measurement over solid state-based quantum information processing.
Do the Uncertainty Relations Really have Crucial Signiﬁcances for Physics?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dumitru S.
2010-10-01
Full Text Available It is proved the falsity of idea that the Uncertainty Relations (UR have crucial signif- icances for physics. Additionally one argues for the necesity of an UR-disconnected quantum philosophy.
Uncertainty of relative sensitivity factors in glow discharge mass spectrometry
Meija, Juris; Methven, Brad; Sturgeon, Ralph E.
2017-10-01
The concept of the relative sensitivity factors required for the correction of the measured ion beam ratios in pin-cell glow discharge mass spectrometry is examined in detail. We propose a data-driven model for predicting the relative response factors, which relies on a non-linear least squares adjustment and analyte/matrix interchangeability phenomena. The model provides a self-consistent set of response factors for any analyte/matrix combination of any element that appears as either an analyte or matrix in at least one known response factor.
Park, DaeKil
2018-06-01
The dynamics of entanglement and uncertainty relation is explored by solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation for coupled harmonic oscillator system analytically when the angular frequencies and coupling constant are arbitrarily time dependent. We derive the spectral and Schmidt decompositions for vacuum solution. Using the decompositions, we derive the analytical expressions for von Neumann and Rényi entropies. Making use of Wigner distribution function defined in phase space, we derive the time dependence of position-momentum uncertainty relations. To show the dynamics of entanglement and uncertainty relation graphically, we introduce two toy models and one realistic quenched model. While the dynamics can be conjectured by simple consideration in the toy models, the dynamics in the realistic quenched model is somewhat different from that in the toy models. In particular, the dynamics of entanglement exhibits similar pattern to dynamics of uncertainty parameter in the realistic quenched model.
Overcoming uncertainty for within-network relational machine learning
Pfeiffer, Joseph J.
2015-01-01
People increasingly communicate through email and social networks to maintain friendships and conduct business, as well as share online content such as pictures, videos and products. Relational machine learning (RML) utilizes a set of observed attributes and network structure to predict corresponding labels for items; for example, to predict individuals engaged in securities fraud, we can utilize phone calls and workplace information to make joint predictions over the individuals. However, in...
Peest, Christian; Schinke, Carsten; Brendel, Rolf; Schmidt, Jan; Bothe, Karsten
2017-01-01
Spectrophotometers are operated in numerous fields of science and industry for a variety of applications. In order to provide confidence for the measured data, analyzing the associated uncertainty is valuable. However, the uncertainty of the measurement results is often unknown or reduced to sample-related contributions. In this paper, we describe our approach for the systematic determination of the measurement uncertainty of the commercially available two-channel spectrophotometer Agilent Cary 5000 in accordance with the Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurements. We focus on the instrumentation-related uncertainty contributions rather than the specific application and thus outline a general procedure which can be adapted for other instruments. Moreover, we discover a systematic signal deviation due to the inertia of the measurement amplifier and develop and apply a correction procedure. Thereby we increase the usable dynamic range of the instrument by more than one order of magnitude. We present methods for the quantification of the uncertainty contributions and combine them into an uncertainty budget for the device.
Eisenberg, Stacy A; Kurita, Keiko; Taylor-Ford, Megan; Agus, David B; Gross, Mitchell E; Meyerowitz, Beth E
2015-02-01
Prostate cancer survivors have reported cognitive complaints following treatment, and these difficulties may be associated with survivors' ongoing cancer-related distress. Intolerance of uncertainty may exacerbate this hypothesized relationship by predisposing individuals to approach uncertain situations such as cancer survivorship in an inflexible and negative manner. We investigated whether greater cognitive complaints and higher intolerance of uncertainty would interact in their relation to more cancer-related distress symptoms. This cross-sectional, questionnaire-based study included 67 prostate cancer survivors who were 3 to 5 years post treatment. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses tested the extent to which intolerance of uncertainty, cognitive complaints, and their interaction were associated with cancer-related distress (measured with the Impact of Event Scale-Revised; IES-R) after adjusting for age, education, physical symptoms, and fear of cancer recurrence. Intolerance of uncertainty was positively associated with the IES-R avoidance and hyperarousal subscales. More cognitive complaints were associated with higher scores on the IES-R hyperarousal subscale. The interaction of intolerance of uncertainty and cognitive complaints was significantly associated with IES-R intrusion, such that greater cognitive complaints were associated with greater intrusive thoughts in survivors high in intolerance of uncertainty but not those low in it. Prostate cancer survivors who report cognitive difficulties or who find uncertainty uncomfortable and unacceptable may be at greater risk for cancer-related distress, even 3 to 5 years after completing treatment. It may be beneficial to address both cognitive complaints and intolerance of uncertainty in psychosocial interventions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Uncertainty characterization of HOAPS 3.3 latent heat-flux-related parameters
Liman, Julian; Schröder, Marc; Fennig, Karsten; Andersson, Axel; Hollmann, Rainer
2018-03-01
Latent heat flux (LHF) is one of the main contributors to the global energy budget. As the density of in situ LHF measurements over the global oceans is generally poor, the potential of remotely sensed LHF for meteorological applications is enormous. However, to date none of the available satellite products have included estimates of systematic, random, and sampling uncertainties, all of which are essential for assessing their quality. Here, the challenge is taken on by matching LHF-related pixel-level data of the Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite (HOAPS) climatology (version 3.3) to in situ measurements originating from a high-quality data archive of buoys and selected ships. Assuming the ground reference to be bias-free, this allows for deriving instantaneous systematic uncertainties as a function of four atmospheric predictor variables. The approach is regionally independent and therefore overcomes the issue of sparse in situ data densities over large oceanic areas. Likewise, random uncertainties are derived, which include not only a retrieval component but also contributions from in situ measurement noise and the collocation procedure. A recently published random uncertainty decomposition approach is applied to isolate the random retrieval uncertainty of all LHF-related HOAPS parameters. It makes use of two combinations of independent data triplets of both satellite and in situ data, which are analysed in terms of their pairwise variances of differences. Instantaneous uncertainties are finally aggregated, allowing for uncertainty characterizations on monthly to multi-annual timescales. Results show that systematic LHF uncertainties range between 15 and 50 W m-2 with a global mean of 25 W m-2. Local maxima are mainly found over the subtropical ocean basins as well as along the western boundary currents. Investigations indicate that contributions from qa (U) to the overall LHF uncertainty are on the order of 60 % (25 %). From an
Some remarks on modeling uncertainties
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ronen, Y.
1983-01-01
Several topics related to the question of modeling uncertainties are considered. The first topic is related to the use of the generalized bias operator method for modeling uncertainties. The method is expanded to a more general form of operators. The generalized bias operator is also used in the inverse problem and applied to determine the anisotropic scattering law. The last topic discussed is related to the question of the limit to accuracy and how to establish its value. (orig.) [de
2016-03-01
CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY by Nicholas M. Chisler March 2016 Thesis Advisor...March 2016 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE RELATING TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS...WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Nicholas M. Chisler 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES
Measurement uncertainties for vacuum standards at Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hong, S. S.; Shin, Y. H.; Chung, K. H.
2006-01-01
The Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science has three major vacuum systems: an ultrasonic interferometer manometer (UIM) (Sec. II, Figs. 1 and 2) for low vacuum, a static expansion system (SES) (Sec. III, Figs. 3 and 4) for medium vacuum, and an orifice-type dynamic expansion system (DES) (Sec. IV, Figs. 5 and 6) for high and ultrahigh vacuum. For each system explicit measurement model equations with multiple variables are, respectively, given. According to ISO standards, all these system variable errors were used to calculate the expanded uncertainty (U). For each system the expanded uncertainties (k=1, confidence level=95%) and relative expanded uncertainty (expanded uncertainty/generated pressure) are summarized in Table IV and are estimated to be as follows. For UIM, at 2.5-300 Pa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -2 Pa and the relative expanded uncertainty is -2 ; at 1-100 kPa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -5 . For SES, at 3-100 Pa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -1 Pa and the relative expanded uncertainty is -3 . For DES, at 4.6x10 -3 -1.3x10 -2 Pa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -4 Pa and the relative expanded uncertainty is -3 ; at 3.0x10 -6 -9.0x10 -4 Pa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -6 Pa and the relative expanded uncertainty is -2 . Within uncertainty limits our bilateral and key comparisons [CCM.P-K4 (10 Pa-1 kPa)] are extensive and in good agreement with those of other nations (Fig. 8 and Table V)
Position-momentum uncertainty relations in the presence of quantum memory
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Furrer, Fabian, E-mail: furrer@eve.phys.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Department of Physics, Graduate School of Science, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Berta, Mario [Institute for Quantum Information and Matter, Caltech, Pasadena, California 91125 (United States); Institute for Theoretical Physics, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Str. 27, 8093 Zürich (Switzerland); Tomamichel, Marco [School of Physics, The University of Sydney, Sydney 2006 (Australia); Centre for Quantum Technologies, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117543 (Singapore); Scholz, Volkher B. [Institute for Theoretical Physics, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Str. 27, 8093 Zürich (Switzerland); Christandl, Matthias [Institute for Theoretical Physics, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Str. 27, 8093 Zürich (Switzerland); Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 5, 2100 Copenhagen (Denmark)
2014-12-15
A prominent formulation of the uncertainty principle identifies the fundamental quantum feature that no particle may be prepared with certain outcomes for both position and momentum measurements. Often the statistical uncertainties are thereby measured in terms of entropies providing a clear operational interpretation in information theory and cryptography. Recently, entropic uncertainty relations have been used to show that the uncertainty can be reduced in the presence of entanglement and to prove security of quantum cryptographic tasks. However, much of this recent progress has been focused on observables with only a finite number of outcomes not including Heisenberg’s original setting of position and momentum observables. Here, we show entropic uncertainty relations for general observables with discrete but infinite or continuous spectrum that take into account the power of an entangled observer. As an illustration, we evaluate the uncertainty relations for position and momentum measurements, which is operationally significant in that it implies security of a quantum key distribution scheme based on homodyne detection of squeezed Gaussian states.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen, G.; Wang, Z.; Liang, X.; Wang, Y.; Wang, Y.; Wang, Z.; Xian, J.
2013-01-01
Aim: To investigate the clinical effectiveness, complications, and optimal duration of use of covered retrievable expandable metallic stents in the management of cuff-related tracheal stenosis. Materials and methods: Twenty-one patients with cuff-related tracheal stenosis, Meyer–Cotton grade II (29%) and III (71%), who underwent fluoroscopically guided placement of covered retrievable expandable metallic stents were studied. Sixty-four-section computed tomography (CT) and bronchovideoscopy were performed prior to stent insertion, 1 month after stent insertion, in the case of stent-related complications, and after stent removal. Clinical manifestations, Hugh–Jones classification, and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) were used to evaluate respiratory function before and after stent insertion and removal. The diameter of the stricture and FEV1 changes before insertion and after removal were analysed using the paired samples t-test. A p-value of ≤0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: Twenty-one patients had 27 covered retrievable expandable metallic stents placed. Stents were electively removed from 20 patients. The median duration of stent placement was 5 months (range 4–12 months). One stent was not removed due to mucopolysaccharidosis type II (MPS II or Hunter syndrome) with tracheomalacia. After stent removal, airway dimensions increased and airway occlusion was symptomatically relieved in all patients. CT and bronchovideoscopy showed patent lumens with increased dimensions. Stent-related complications occurred in 19 (91%) patients, including granulation tissue formation (n = 18, 86%), stent migration and stent expectoration (n = 2, 10%), mucus plugging (n = 1, 5%), and halitosis (n = 6, 29%). Some patients experienced multiple complications, which were all managed effectively while the stent was still in place. There was a statistically significant difference in the diameter of the stricture and FEV1 between the time of stent
Chen, G; Wang, Z; Liang, X; Wang, Y; Wang, Y; Wang, Z; Xian, J
2013-04-01
To investigate the clinical effectiveness, complications, and optimal duration of use of covered retrievable expandable metallic stents in the management of cuff-related tracheal stenosis. Twenty-one patients with cuff-related tracheal stenosis, Meyer-Cotton grade II (29%) and III (71%), who underwent fluoroscopically guided placement of covered retrievable expandable metallic stents were studied. Sixty-four-section computed tomography (CT) and bronchovideoscopy were performed prior to stent insertion, 1 month after stent insertion, in the case of stent-related complications, and after stent removal. Clinical manifestations, Hugh-Jones classification, and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) were used to evaluate respiratory function before and after stent insertion and removal. The diameter of the stricture and FEV1 changes before insertion and after removal were analysed using the paired samples t-test. A p-value of ≤0.05 was considered statistically significant. Twenty-one patients had 27 covered retrievable expandable metallic stents placed. Stents were electively removed from 20 patients. The median duration of stent placement was 5 months (range 4-12 months). One stent was not removed due to mucopolysaccharidosis type II (MPS II or Hunter syndrome) with tracheomalacia. After stent removal, airway dimensions increased and airway occlusion was symptomatically relieved in all patients. CT and bronchovideoscopy showed patent lumens with increased dimensions. Stent-related complications occurred in 19 (91%) patients, including granulation tissue formation (n = 18, 86%), stent migration and stent expectoration (n = 2, 10%), mucus plugging (n = 1, 5%), and halitosis (n = 6, 29%). Some patients experienced multiple complications, which were all managed effectively while the stent was still in place. There was a statistically significant difference in the diameter of the stricture and FEV1 between the time of stent insertion and removal. An improvement in
Hyeon, Changbong; Hwang, Wonseok
2017-07-01
Using Brownian motion in periodic potentials V (x ) tilted by a force f , we provide physical insight into the thermodynamic uncertainty relation, a recently conjectured principle for statistical errors and irreversible heat dissipation in nonequilibrium steady states. According to the relation, nonequilibrium output generated from dissipative processes necessarily incurs an energetic cost or heat dissipation q , and in order to limit the output fluctuation within a relative uncertainty ɛ , at least 2 kBT /ɛ2 of heat must be dissipated. Our model shows that this bound is attained not only at near-equilibrium [f ≪V'(x ) ] but also at far-from-equilibrium [f ≫V'(x ) ] , more generally when the dissipated heat is normally distributed. Furthermore, the energetic cost is maximized near the critical force when the barrier separating the potential wells is about to vanish and the fluctuation of Brownian particles is maximized. These findings indicate that the deviation of heat distribution from Gaussianity gives rise to the inequality of the uncertainty relation, further clarifying the meaning of the uncertainty relation. Our derivation of the uncertainty relation also recognizes a bound of nonequilibrium fluctuations that the variance of dissipated heat (σq2) increases with its mean (μq), and it cannot be smaller than 2 kBT μq .
Hertz, Anaelle; Vanbever, Luc; Cerf, Nicolas J.
2018-01-01
The uncertainty relation for continuous variables due to Byałinicki-Birula and Mycielski [I. Białynicki-Birula and J. Mycielski, Commun. Math. Phys. 44, 129 (1975), 10.1007/BF01608825] expresses the complementarity between two n -tuples of canonically conjugate variables (x1,x2,...,xn) and (p1,p2,...,pn) in terms of Shannon differential entropy. Here we consider the generalization to variables that are not canonically conjugate and derive an entropic uncertainty relation expressing the balance between any two n -variable Gaussian projective measurements. The bound on entropies is expressed in terms of the determinant of a matrix of commutators between the measured variables. This uncertainty relation also captures the complementarity between any two incompatible linear canonical transforms, the bound being written in terms of the corresponding symplectic matrices in phase space. Finally, we extend this uncertainty relation to Rényi entropies and also prove a covariance-based uncertainty relation which generalizes the Robertson relation.
Hemodialysis shunts-related subclavian vein stenosis : treatment with self-expandable metallic stent
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kim, Sang Gyee; Lee, Young Chul; Shin, Sang Soo; Kim, Yun Hyeon; Kim, Jae Kyu; Kang, Heoung Keun; Jeong, Sang Young; Choi, Su Jin Na [Chonnam Univ. College of Medicine, Kwangju (Korea, Republic of)
1999-04-01
To evaluate the usefulness of placement of self-expandable stents in hemodialytic shunt-related subclavian vein stenosis. Self-expandable metallic stent was placed in nine patients with hemodialytic shunt-related subclavian vein stenosis. In seven cases, angioplasty was attempted before stent placement; in five, stents were placed immediately after failed angioplasty; and in two, due to restenosis after angioplasty. Procedures involved a 10mm diameter, 7-10cm length Wallstent in eight cases, and a 10mm diameter, 8cm length Hanaro stent in one. In all cases, clinical follow-up, which included physical examination and the measurement of venous resistance pressure during hemodialysis, was performed. The follow-up period was between 5 months and 1 year 7 months. Repeated intervention was performed if restenosis was detected. The stenotic sites were in eight cases the site of a previous subclavian venous line, and in one, the site of anatomic narrowing at the thoracic inlet of the subclavian vein. The technical success rate was 100%;a resulting complication was stent migration into the right atrium in one case in which a Hanaro stent had been used; this was removed by snaring. During follow-up of the eight patients in whon stent placement was successful, restenosis developed in three cases. This occurred during the 7th, 8th, and 15th month, respectively. Two such cases were treated by balloon dilatation. In hemodialytic shunt-related subclavian vein stenosis, treatment involving the use of a self-expandable metallic stent is useful, especially for treating a lesion which has not responded to angioplasty with a high patency rate.
Hemodialysis shunts-related subclavian vein stenosis : treatment with self-expandable metallic stent
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Sang Gyee; Lee, Young Chul; Shin, Sang Soo; Kim, Yun Hyeon; Kim, Jae Kyu; Kang, Heoung Keun; Jeong, Sang Young; Choi, Su Jin Na
1999-01-01
To evaluate the usefulness of placement of self-expandable stents in hemodialytic shunt-related subclavian vein stenosis. Self-expandable metallic stent was placed in nine patients with hemodialytic shunt-related subclavian vein stenosis. In seven cases, angioplasty was attempted before stent placement; in five, stents were placed immediately after failed angioplasty; and in two, due to restenosis after angioplasty. Procedures involved a 10mm diameter, 7-10cm length Wallstent in eight cases, and a 10mm diameter, 8cm length Hanaro stent in one. In all cases, clinical follow-up, which included physical examination and the measurement of venous resistance pressure during hemodialysis, was performed. The follow-up period was between 5 months and 1 year 7 months. Repeated intervention was performed if restenosis was detected. The stenotic sites were in eight cases the site of a previous subclavian venous line, and in one, the site of anatomic narrowing at the thoracic inlet of the subclavian vein. The technical success rate was 100%;a resulting complication was stent migration into the right atrium in one case in which a Hanaro stent had been used; this was removed by snaring. During follow-up of the eight patients in whon stent placement was successful, restenosis developed in three cases. This occurred during the 7th, 8th, and 15th month, respectively. Two such cases were treated by balloon dilatation. In hemodialytic shunt-related subclavian vein stenosis, treatment involving the use of a self-expandable metallic stent is useful, especially for treating a lesion which has not responded to angioplasty with a high patency rate
Uncertainties of exposure-related quantities in mammographic x-ray unit quality control
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gregory, Kent J.; Pattison, John E.; Bibbo, Giovanni
2006-01-01
Breast screening programs operate in many countries with mammographic x-ray units subject to stringent quality control tests. These tests include the evaluation of quantities based on exposure measurements, such as half value layer, automatic exposure control reproducibility, average glandular dose, and radiation output rate. There are numerous error sources that contribute to the uncertainty of these exposure-related quantities, some of which are unique to the low energy x-ray spectrum produced by mammographic x-ray units. For each of these exposure-related quantities, the applicable error sources and their magnitudes vary, depending on the test equipment used to make the measurement, and whether or not relevant corrections have been applied. This study has identified and quantified a range of error sources that may be used to estimate the combined uncertainty of these exposure-related quantities, given the test equipment used and corrections applied. The uncertainty analysis uses methods described by the International Standards Organization's Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. Examples of how these error sources combine to give the uncertainty of the exposure-related quantities are presented. Using the best test equipment evaluated in this study, uncertainties of the four exposure-related quantities at the 95% confidence interval were found to be ±1.6% (half value layer), ±0.0008 (automatic exposure control reproducibility), ±2.3% (average glandular dose), and ±2.1% (radiation output rate). In some cases, using less precise test equipment or failing to apply corrections, resulted in uncertainties more than double in magnitude
Gong, Huo-Hui; Addla, Dinesh; Lv, Jing-Song; Zhou, Cheng-He
2016-01-01
Naphthalimide compounds are an important type of nitrogen-containing aromatic heterocycles with cyclic double imides and the naphthalene framework. This π-deficient large conjugated planar structure enables naphthalimide derivatives to readily interact with various biological cations, anions, small molecules and macromolecules such as DNAs, enzymes and recetors in living organism via noncovalent bonds, therefore exhibiting extensive potentiality in relatively medicinal applications. Currently, some naphthalimides as anticancer agents have entered into clinical trials and other naphthalimide-based medicinal developments as potential drugs for treatment of various diseases are actively and unprecedentedly expanding. Naphthalimide-derived artificial ion receptors, fluorescent probes and cell imaging agents are being overwhelmingly investigated and have a diversity of potential applications in real-time detecting ions and biomolecules, understanding biological processes and determining pharmacological and pharmacokinetic properties. All the above mentions have strongly implied that naphthalimide-based derivatives as new skeleton structure of compounds possess increasingly expanding relational medicinal applications, and the related research is becoming a quite attractive active topic and newly rising highlight. Combining with our research and referring other works from literature, this work systematically reviews the current research and development of heterocyclic naphthalimides as anticancer, antibacterial, antifungal, antiviral, anti-inflammatory, antidepressant agents as well as artificial cation and anion receptors, diagnostic agents and pathologic probes, and cell imaging agents for biologically important species. Some rational design strategies, structure-activity relationships and action mechanisms are discussed. The perspectives of the future development of naphthalimide-based medicinal chemistry are also presented.
Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Yu, Weiwei; Tong, Shilu
2015-02-01
Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The grey relational approach for evaluating measurement uncertainty with poor information
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Luo, Zai; Wang, Yanqing; Zhou, Weihu; Wang, Zhongyu
2015-01-01
The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) is the master document for measurement uncertainty evaluation. However, the GUM may encounter problems and does not work well when the measurement data have poor information. In most cases, poor information means a small data sample and an unknown probability distribution. In these cases, the evaluation of measurement uncertainty has become a bottleneck in practical measurement. To solve this problem, a novel method called the grey relational approach (GRA), different from the statistical theory, is proposed in this paper. The GRA does not require a large sample size or probability distribution information of the measurement data. Mathematically, the GRA can be divided into three parts. Firstly, according to grey relational analysis, the grey relational coefficients between the ideal and the practical measurement output series are obtained. Secondly, the weighted coefficients and the measurement expectation function will be acquired based on the grey relational coefficients. Finally, the measurement uncertainty is evaluated based on grey modeling. In order to validate the performance of this method, simulation experiments were performed and the evaluation results show that the GRA can keep the average error around 5%. Besides, the GRA was also compared with the grey method, the Bessel method, and the Monte Carlo method by a real stress measurement. Both the simulation experiments and real measurement show that the GRA is appropriate and effective to evaluate the measurement uncertainty with poor information. (paper)
Event-by-event simulation of single-neutron experiments to test uncertainty relations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Raedt, H De; Michielsen, K
2014-01-01
Results from a discrete-event simulation of a recent single-neutron experiment that tests Ozawa's generalization of Heisenberg's uncertainty relation are presented. The event-based simulation algorithm reproduces the results of the quantum theoretical description of the experiment but does not require the knowledge of the solution of a wave equation, nor does it rely on detailed concepts of quantum theory. In particular, the data from these non-quantum simulations satisfy uncertainty relations derived in the context of quantum theory. (paper)
Complementarity and the Nature of Uncertainty Relations in Einstein–Bohr Recoiling Slit Experiment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shogo Tanimura
2015-07-01
Full Text Available A model of the Einstein–Bohr recoiling slit experiment is formulated in a fully quantum theoretical setting. In this model, the state and dynamics of a movable wall that has two slits in it, as well as the state of a particle incoming to the two slits, are described by quantum mechanics. Using this model, we analyzed complementarity between exhibiting an interference pattern and distinguishing the particle path. Comparing the Kennard–Robertson type and the Ozawa-type uncertainty relations, we conclude that the uncertainty relation involved in the double-slit experiment is not the Ozawa-type uncertainty relation but the Kennard-type uncertainty relation of the position and the momentum of the double-slit wall. A possible experiment to test the complementarity relation is suggested. It is also argued that various phenomena which occur at the interface of a quantum system and a classical system, including distinguishability, interference, decoherence, quantum eraser, and weak value, can be understood as aspects of entanglement. Quanta 2015; 4: 1–9.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khalil, M. Y.
2006-01-01
Full text: The Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) Laboratory of Egypt Second Training and Research Reactor (ETRR-2) is increasingly requested to perform multi-element analysis to large number of samples from different origins. The INAA laboratory has to demonstrate competence by conforming to appropriate internationally and nationally accepted standards. The objective of this work is to determine the uncertainty budget and sensitivity of the INAA laboratory measurements. Concentrations of 9 elements; Mn, Na, K, Ca, Co, Cr, Fe, Rb, and Cs, were measured against a certified test sample. Relative, absolute, and Ko-IAEA standardization methods were employed and results compared. The flux was monitored using cadmium covered gold method, and multifoil (gold, nickel and zirconium) method. The combined and expanded uncertainties were estimated. Uncertainty of concentrations ranged between 2-21% depending on the standardization method used. The relative method, giving the lowest uncertainty, produced uncertainty budget between 2 and 11%. The minimum detectable concentration was the lowest for Cs ranging between 0.36 and 0.59 ppb and the highest being for K in the range of 0.32 to 8.64 ppm
S-Denying of the Signature Conditions Expands General Relativity's Space
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rabounski D.
2006-07-01
Full Text Available We apply the S-denying procedure to signature conditions in a four-dimensional pseudo-Riemannian space — i. e. we change one (or even all of the conditions to be partially true and partially false. We obtain five kinds of expanded space-time for General Relativity. Kind I permits the space-time to be in collapse. Kind II permits the space-time to change its own signature. Kind III has peculiarities, linked to the third signature condition. Kind IV permits regions where the metric fully degenerates: there may be non-quantum teleportation, and a home for virtual photons. Kind V is common for kinds I, II, III, and IV.
Hyperphosphatasia with mental retardation syndrome, expanded phenotype of PIGL related disorders
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ruqaiah Altassan
2018-06-01
Full Text Available Hypomorphic mutations in six different genes involved in the glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI biogenesis pathway are linked to Mabry syndrome (hyperphosphatasia with mental retardation syndrome, HPMRS. This report on the third affected family with a HPMRS phenotype caused by mutations in PIGL, confirming the seventh GPI biogenesis gene linked to HPMRS. Two siblings presented with the main features of HPMRS; developmental delay, cognitive impairment, seizure disorder, skeletal deformities, and high alkaline phosphatase. We identified two heterozygous mutations in the PIGL gene (P.Trp20Ter and p.Arg88Cys. PIGL mutations have been linked to another distinctive neuroectodermal disorder: CHIME syndrome. The clinical picture of our patients expands the spectrum of PIGL-related phenotypes. Keywords: GPI biogenesis, Hyperphosphatasia mental retardation syndrome (HPMRS, Mabry syndrome, PIGL gene, CHIME syndrome
Strekalova, Yulia A; James, Vaughan S
2017-09-01
User-generated information on the Internet provides opportunities for the monitoring of health information consumer attitudes. For example, information about cancer prevention may cause decisional conflict. Yet posts and conversations shared by health information consumers online are often not readily actionable for interpretation and decision-making due to their unstandardized format. This study extends prior research on the use of natural language as a predictor of consumer attitudes and provides a link to decision-making by evaluating the predictive role of uncertainty indicators expressed in natural language. Analyzed data included free-text comments and structured scale responses related to information about skin cancer prevention options. The study identified natural language indicators of uncertainty and showed that it can serve as a predictor of decisional conflict. The natural indicators of uncertainty reported here can facilitate the monitoring of health consumer perceptions about cancer prevention recommendations and inform education and communication campaign planning and evaluation.
Status of Occupational Health and Safety and Related Challenges in Expanding Economy of Tanzania.
Mrema, Ezra J; Ngowi, Aiwerasia V; Mamuya, Simon H D
2015-01-01
Occupational health and safety is related with economic activities undertaken in the country. As the economic activities grow and expand, occupational injuries and diseases are more likely to increase among workers in different sectors of economy such as agriculture, mining, transport, and manufacture. This may result in high occupational health and safety services demand, which might be difficult to meet by developing countries that are prioritizing economic expansion without regard to their impact on occupational health and safety. To describe the status of occupational health and safety in Tanzania and outline the challenges in provision of occupational health services under the state of an expanding economy. Tanzania's economy is growing steadily, with growth being driven by communications, transport, financial intermediation, construction, mining, agriculture, and manufacturing. Along with this growth, hazards emanating from work in all sectors of the economy have increased and varied. The workers exposed to these hazards suffer from illness and injuries and yet they are not provided with adequate occupational health services. Services are scanty and limited to a few enterprises that can afford it. Existing laws and regulations are not comprehensive enough to cover the entire population. Implementation of legislation is weak and does not protect the workers. Most Tanzanians are not covered by the occupational health and safety law and do not access occupational health services. Thus an occupational health and safety services strategy, backed by legislations and provided with the necessary resources (competent experts, financial and technological resources), is a necessity in Tanzania. The existing legal provisions require major modifications to meet international requirements and standards. OHS regulations and legislations need refocusing, revision, and strengthening to cover all working population. Capacities should be improved through training and research
Mearns, Susan Lesley
2011-01-01
This paper seeks to highlight the need for employment relations academics and researchers to expand their use of research methodologies in order for them to enable the advancement of theoretical debate within their discipline. It focuses on the contribution that pragmatical critical realism has made to the field of perception and argues that it would add value to the subject of employment relations. It is a theoretically centred review of pragmatical critical realism and the possible contribution this methodology would make to the field of employment relations. The paper concludes that the employment relationship does not take place in a vacuum rather it is focussed on the interaction between imperfect individuals. Therefore, their interactions are moulded by emotions which can not be explored thoroughly or even acknowledged through a positivists' rigorous but limited acknowledgment of what constitutes 'knowledge' and development of theory. While not rejecting the contribution that quantitative data or positivism have made to the field, the study concludes that pragmatic critical realism has a lot to offer the development of the area and its theoretical foundations.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lerche, I.; Noeth, S.
2002-01-01
The influence of two fundamentally different types of uncertainty on the value of oil field production are investigated here. First considered is the uncertainty caused by the fact that the expected value estimate is not one of the possible outcomes. To correctly allow for the risk attendant upon using the expected value as a measure of worth, even with statistically sharp parameters, one needs to incorporate the uncertainty of the expected value. Using a simple example we show how such incorporation allows for a clear determination of the relative risk of projects that may have the same expected value but very different risks. We also show how each project can be risked on its own using the expected value and variance. This uncertainty type is due to the possible pathways for different outcomes even when parameters categorizing the system are taken to be known. Second considered is the risk due to the fact that parameters in oil field estimates are just estimates and, as such, have their own intrinsic errors that influence the possible outcomes and make them less certain. This sort of risk depends upon the uncertainty of each parameter, and also the type of distribution the parameters are taken to be drawn from. In addition, not all uncertainties in parameters values are of equal importance in influencing an outcome probability. We show how can determine the relative importance for the parameters and so determine where to place effort to resolve the dominant contributions to risk if it is possible to do so. Considerations of whether to acquire new information, and also whether to undertake further studies under such an uncertain environment, are used as vehicles to address these concerns of risk due to uncertainty. In general, an oil field development project has to contend with all the above types of risk and uncertainty. It is therefore of importance to have quantitative measures of risk so that one can compare and contrast the various effects, and so that
Uncertainties Related to Extreme Event Statistics of Sewer System Surcharge and Overflow
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld; Johansen, C.; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke
2005-01-01
Today it is common practice - in the major part of Europe - to base design of sewer systems in urban areas on recommended minimum values of flooding frequencies related to either pipe top level, basement level in buildings or level of road surfaces. Thus storm water runoff in sewer systems is only...... proceeding in an acceptable manner, if flooding of these levels is having an average return period bigger than a predefined value. This practice is also often used in functional analysis of existing sewer systems. If a sewer system can fulfil recommended flooding frequencies or not, can only be verified...... by performing long term simulations - using a sewer flow simulation model - and draw up extreme event statistics from the model simulations. In this context it is important to realize that uncertainties related to the input parameters of rainfall runoff models will give rise to uncertainties related...
Genomics of crop wild relatives: expanding the gene pool for crop improvement.
Brozynska, Marta; Furtado, Agnelo; Henry, Robert J
2016-04-01
Plant breeders require access to new genetic diversity to satisfy the demands of a growing human population for more food that can be produced in a variable or changing climate and to deliver the high-quality food with nutritional and health benefits demanded by consumers. The close relatives of domesticated plants, crop wild relatives (CWRs), represent a practical gene pool for use by plant breeders. Genomics of CWR generates data that support the use of CWR to expand the genetic diversity of crop plants. Advances in DNA sequencing technology are enabling the efficient sequencing of CWR and their increased use in crop improvement. As the sequencing of genomes of major crop species is completed, attention has shifted to analysis of the wider gene pool of major crops including CWR. A combination of de novo sequencing and resequencing is required to efficiently explore useful genetic variation in CWR. Analysis of the nuclear genome, transcriptome and maternal (chloroplast and mitochondrial) genome of CWR is facilitating their use in crop improvement. Genome analysis results in discovery of useful alleles in CWR and identification of regions of the genome in which diversity has been lost in domestication bottlenecks. Targeting of high priority CWR for sequencing will maximize the contribution of genome sequencing of CWR. Coordination of global efforts to apply genomics has the potential to accelerate access to and conservation of the biodiversity essential to the sustainability of agriculture and food production. © 2015 Society for Experimental Biology, Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Parameters-related uncertainty in modeling sugar cane yield with an agro-Land Surface Model
Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Ruget, F.; Gabrielle, B.
2012-12-01
Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the coupling of specific crop models and large-scale generic vegetation models. They aim at accounting for the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with a particular emphasis on how crop phenology and agricultural management practice influence the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty in these models is related to the many parameters included in the models' equations. In this study, we quantify the parameter-based uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS on a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Reunion and Brazil. First, the main source of uncertainty for the output variables NPP, GPP, and sensible heat flux (SH) is determined through a screening of the main parameters of the model on a multi-site basis leading to the selection of a subset of most sensitive parameters causing most of the uncertainty. In a second step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters selected from the screening analysis at a regional scale. For this, a Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used. First, we quantify the sensitivity of the output variables to individual input parameters on a regional scale for two regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Then, we quantify the overall uncertainty in the simulation's outputs propagated from the uncertainty in the input parameters. Seven parameters are identified by the screening procedure as driving most of the uncertainty in the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS model output at all sites. These parameters control photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), root
A quantum uncertainty relation based on Fisher's information
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sanchez-Moreno, P; Plastino, A R; Dehesa, J S, E-mail: pablos@ugr.es, E-mail: arplastino@ugr.es, E-mail: dehesa@ugr.es [Departamento de Fisica Atomica, Molecular y Nuclear and Instituto Carlos I de Fisica Teorica y Computacional, University of Granada, Granada (Spain)
2011-02-11
We explore quantum uncertainty relations involving the Fisher information functionals I{sub x} and I{sub p} evaluated, respectively, on a wavefunction {Psi}(x) defined on a D-dimensional configuration space and the concomitant wavefunction {Psi}-tilde(p) on the conjugate momentum space. We prove that the associated Fisher functionals obey the uncertainty relation I{sub x}I{sub p} {>=} 4D{sup 2} when either {Psi}(x) or {Psi}-tilde(p) is real. On the other hand, there is no lower bound to the above product for arbitrary complex wavefunctions. We give explicit examples of complex wavefunctions not obeying the above bound. In particular, we provide a parametrized wavefunction for which the product I{sub x}I{sub p} can be made arbitrarily small.
Measurability of quantum fields and the energy-time uncertainty relation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mensky, Mikhail B
2011-01-01
Quantum restrictions on the measurability of an electromagnetic field strength and their relevance to the energy-time uncertainty relation are considered. The minimum errors in measuring electromagnetic field strengths, as they were estimated by the author (1988) in the framework of the phenomenological method of restricted path integral (RPI), are compared with the analogous estimates found by Landau and Peierls (1931) and by Bohr and Rosenfeld (1933) with the help of certain measurement setups. RPI-based restrictions, including those of Landau and Peierls as a special case, hold for any measuring schemes meeting the strict definition of measurement. Their fundamental nature is confirmed by the fact that their associated field detectability condition has the form of the energy-time uncertainty relation. The weaker restrictions suggested by Bohr and Rosenfeld rely on an extended definition of measurement. The energy-time uncertainty relation, which is the condition for the electromagnetic field to be detectable, is applied to the analysis of how the near-field scanning microscope works. (methodological notes)
Loague, Keith; Blanke, James S; Mills, Melissa B; Diaz-Diaz, Ricardo; Corwin, Dennis L
2012-01-01
Precious groundwater resources across the United States have been contaminated due to decades-long nonpoint-source applications of agricultural chemicals. Assessing the impact of past, ongoing, and future chemical applications for large-scale agriculture operations is timely for designing best-management practices to prevent subsurface pollution. Presented here are the results from a series of regional-scale vulnerability assessments for the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Two relatively simple indices, the retardation and attenuation factors, are used to estimate near-surface vulnerabilities based on the chemical properties of 32 pesticides and the variability of both soil characteristics and recharge rates across the SJV. The uncertainties inherit to these assessments, derived from the uncertainties within the chemical and soil data bases, are estimated using first-order analyses. The results are used to screen and rank the chemicals based on mobility and leaching potential, without and with consideration of data-related uncertainties. Chemicals of historic high visibility in the SJV (e.g., atrazine, DBCP [dibromochloropropane], ethylene dibromide, and simazine) are ranked in the top half of those considered. Vulnerability maps generated for atrazine and DBCP, featured for their legacy status in the study area, clearly illustrate variations within and across the assessments. For example, the leaching potential is greater for DBCP than for atrazine, the leaching potential for DBCP is greater for the spatially variable recharge values than for the average recharge rate, and the leaching potentials for both DBCP and atrazine are greater for the annual recharge estimates than for the monthly recharge estimates. The data-related uncertainties identified in this study can be significant, targeting opportunities for improving future vulnerability assessments. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America
Mockler, E. M.; Chun, K. P.; Sapriza-Azuri, G.; Bruen, M.; Wheater, H. S.
2016-11-01
Predictions of river flow dynamics provide vital information for many aspects of water management including water resource planning, climate adaptation, and flood and drought assessments. Many of the subjective choices that modellers make including model and criteria selection can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of the output uncertainty. Hydrological modellers are tasked with understanding and minimising the uncertainty surrounding streamflow predictions before communicating the overall uncertainty to decision makers. Parameter uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff models has been widely investigated, and model structural uncertainty and forcing data have been receiving increasing attention. This study aimed to assess uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to forcing data and the identification of behavioural parameter sets in 31 Irish catchments. By combining stochastic rainfall ensembles and multiple parameter sets for three conceptual rainfall-runoff models, an analysis of variance model was used to decompose the total uncertainty in streamflow simulations into contributions from (i) forcing data, (ii) identification of model parameters and (iii) interactions between the two. The analysis illustrates that, for our subjective choices, hydrological model selection had a greater contribution to overall uncertainty, while performance criteria selection influenced the relative intra-annual uncertainties in streamflow predictions. Uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to the method of determining parameters were relatively lower for wetter catchments, and more evenly distributed throughout the year when the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of logarithmic values of flow (lnNSE) was the evaluation criterion.
Effect of minimal length uncertainty on the mass-radius relation of white dwarfs
Mathew, Arun; Nandy, Malay K.
2018-06-01
Generalized uncertainty relation that carries the imprint of quantum gravity introduces a minimal length scale into the description of space-time. It effectively changes the invariant measure of the phase space through a factor (1 + βp2) - 3 so that the equation of state for an electron gas undergoes a significant modification from the ideal case. It has been shown in the literature (Rashidi 2016) that the ideal Chandrasekhar limit ceases to exist when the modified equation of state due to the generalized uncertainty is taken into account. To assess the situation in a more complete fashion, we analyze in detail the mass-radius relation of Newtonian white dwarfs whose hydrostatic equilibria are governed by the equation of state of the degenerate relativistic electron gas subjected to the generalized uncertainty principle. As the constraint of minimal length imposes a severe restriction on the availability of high momentum states, it is speculated that the central Fermi momentum cannot have values arbitrarily higher than pmax ∼β - 1 / 2. When this restriction is imposed, it is found that the system approaches limiting mass values higher than the Chandrasekhar mass upon decreasing the parameter β to a value given by a legitimate upper bound. Instead, when the more realistic restriction due to inverse β-decay is considered, it is found that the mass and radius approach the values 1.4518 M⊙ and 601.18 km near the legitimate upper bound for the parameter β.
Energy levels of one-dimensional systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bernardo, Reginald Christian S., E-mail: rcbernardo@nip.upd.edu.ph; Esguerra, Jose Perico H., E-mail: jesguerra@nip.upd.edu.ph
2016-10-15
The standard approach to calculating the energy levels for quantum systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation is to solve an eigenvalue problem involving a fourth- or higher-order differential equation in quasiposition space. It is shown that the problem can be reformulated so that the energy levels of these systems can be obtained by solving only a second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation. Through this formulation the energy levels are calculated for the following potentials: particle in a box, harmonic oscillator, Pöschl–Teller well, Gaussian well, and double-Gaussian well. For the particle in a box, the second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation is a second-order differential equation with constant coefficients. For the harmonic oscillator, Pöschl–Teller well, Gaussian well, and double-Gaussian well, a method that involves using Wronskians has been used to solve the second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation. It is observed for all of these quantum systems that the introduction of a nonzero minimal length uncertainty induces a positive shift in the energy levels. It is shown that the calculation of energy levels in systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation is not limited to a small number of problems like particle in a box and the harmonic oscillator but can be extended to a wider class of problems involving potentials such as the Pöschl–Teller and Gaussian wells.
Quantum scattering in one-dimensional systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bernardo, Reginald Christian S., E-mail: rcbernardo@nip.upd.edu.ph; Esguerra, Jose Perico H., E-mail: jesguerra@nip.upd.edu.ph
2016-12-15
In quantum gravity theories, when the scattering energy is comparable to the Planck energy the Heisenberg uncertainty principle breaks down and is replaced by the minimal length uncertainty relation. In this paper, the consequences of the minimal length uncertainty relation on one-dimensional quantum scattering are studied using an approach involving a recently proposed second-order differential equation. An exact analytical expression for the tunneling probability through a locally-periodic rectangular potential barrier system is obtained. Results show that the existence of a non-zero minimal length uncertainty tends to shift the resonant tunneling energies to the positive direction. Scattering through a locally-periodic potential composed of double-rectangular potential barriers shows that the first band of resonant tunneling energies widens for minimal length cases when the double-rectangular potential barrier is symmetric but narrows down when the double-rectangular potential barrier is asymmetric. A numerical solution which exploits the use of Wronskians is used to calculate the transmission probabilities through the Pöschl–Teller well, Gaussian barrier, and double-Gaussian barrier. Results show that the probability of passage through the Pöschl–Teller well and Gaussian barrier is smaller in the minimal length cases compared to the non-minimal length case. For the double-Gaussian barrier, the probability of passage for energies that are more positive than the resonant tunneling energy is larger in the minimal length cases compared to the non-minimal length case. The approach is exact and applicable to many types of scattering potential.
GARUSO - Version 1.0. Uncertainty model for multipath ultrasonic transit time gas flow meters
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lunde, Per; Froeysa, Kjell-Eivind; Vestrheim, Magne
1997-09-01
This report describes an uncertainty model for ultrasonic transit time gas flow meters configured with parallel chords, and a PC program, GARUSO Version 1.0, implemented for calculation of the meter`s relative expanded uncertainty. The program, which is based on the theoretical uncertainty model, is used to carry out a simplified and limited uncertainty analysis for a 12`` 4-path meter, where examples of input and output uncertainties are given. The model predicts a relative expanded uncertainty for the meter at a level which further justifies today`s increasing tendency to use this type of instruments for fiscal metering of natural gas. 52 refs., 15 figs., 11 tabs.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Frutiger, Jerome; Marcarie, Camille; Abildskov, Jens
2016-01-01
regression and outlier treatment have been applied to achieve high accuracy. Furthermore, linear error propagation based on covariance matrix of estimated parameters was performed. Therefore, every estimated property value of the flammability-related properties is reported together with its corresponding 95......%-confidence interval of the prediction. Compared to existing models the developed ones have a higher accuracy, are simple to apply and provide uncertainty information on the calculated prediction. The average relative error and correlation coefficient are 11.5% and 0.99 for LFL, 15.9% and 0.91 for UFL, 2...
Expanding Post-Harvest Finance Through Warehouse Receipts and Related Instruments
Baldwin, Marisa; Bryla, Erin; Langenbucher, Anja
2006-01-01
Warehouse receipt financing and similar types of collateralized lending provide an alternative to traditional lending requirements of banks and other financiers and could provide opportunities to expand this lending in emerging economies for agricultural trade. The main contents include: what is warehouse receipt financing; what is the value of warehouse receipt financing; other collater...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Langeskov-Christensen, D; Feys, P; Baert, I
2017-01-01
BACKGROUND: The severity of walking impairment in persons with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) at different levels on the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) is unclear. Furthermore, it is unclear if the EDSS is differently related to performed- and perceived walking capacity tests. AIMS: To quantify...
Nesbitt, J C; Carrasco, H
1996-05-01
Expandable metallic stents are effective in selected patients with malignant or benign airway stenoses. When used for malignant lesions, the primary purpose of the stent is to improve the quality of life; stents are usually chosen for palliation of symptoms in recognition of the low likelihood of success for other therapy. For patients with benign stenoses, the stents provide a permanent source of structural support to alleviate the narrowed segment. The advantages of the expandable metallic stents are as follows: (1) they can be inserted through an endotracheal tube or under local anesthesia with relative simplicity under fluoroscopic guidance; (2) they do not impair the drainage of sputum because ciliary movement is not interrupted; (3) over a period of a few weeks, the meshwork is gradually covered with mucosa as the stent becomes incorporated into the airway wall; (4) ventilation usually is not impaired if the metallic mesh stent covers another nonstenosed bronchus, because the interstices of the stent are nonobstructive; and (5) they are dynamic and continue to expand over time, particularly if concurrent treatment achieves an effect on the lesion that caused stenosis. Disadvantages of the expandable stent include (1) they often are only temporarily effective for tracheobronchial stenosis due to intraluminal tumor or granulation tissue, both of which can grow between the wires; (2) they are considered permanent stents because removal is difficult; and (3) they can be poorly positioned during placement or can become displaced by progressive migration after placement, and they cannot be repositioned. A relative contraindication to insertion is an inflammatory process or infection that can predispose to granulation formation, particularly at the points of maximal contact pressure of the stent to the airway mucosa. In the presence of inflammation, it may be better to use a silicone prosthesis until the inflammatory process subsides and fibrosis occurs. Granulation
Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad
2016-01-01
Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)
Characterisation of a reference site for quantifying uncertainties related to soil sampling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barbizzi, Sabrina; Zorzi, Paolo de; Belli, Maria; Pati, Alessandra; Sansone, Umberto; Stellato, Luisa; Barbina, Maria; Deluisa, Andrea; Menegon, Sandro; Coletti, Valter
2004-01-01
An integrated approach to quality assurance in soil sampling remains to be accomplished. - The paper reports a methodology adopted to face problems related to quality assurance in soil sampling. The SOILSAMP project, funded by the Environmental Protection Agency of Italy (APAT), is aimed at (i) establishing protocols for soil sampling in different environments; (ii) assessing uncertainties associated with different soil sampling methods in order to select the 'fit-for-purpose' method; (iii) qualifying, in term of trace elements spatial variability, a reference site for national and international inter-comparison exercises. Preliminary results and considerations are illustrated
The angle-angular momentum and entropic uncertainty relations for quantum scattering
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ion, D.B.; Ion, M.L.
1999-01-01
Recently the entropic uncertainty relations are obtained in a more general form by using Tsallis-like entropies for the quantum scattering. Hence, using Riesz theorem, the state-independent entropic angle-angular momentum uncertainty relations are proved for the Tsallis-like scattering entropies of spinless particles. The generalized entropic inequalities for the Tsallis-like entropies are presented. The two upper bounds are optimal bounds and can be obtained via Lagrange multipliers by extremizing the Tsallis-like entropies subject to the normalization constraints, respectively. The proof of the lower bound is provided by considering the condition that the angular distribution of probability, P(x) has, everywhere, a finite magnitude. Next, by using the Riesz Theorem a general result was obtained, appearing as inequalities valid for the case of hadron-hadron scattering. An important entropic uncertainty relation for the scattering of spinless particle was thus obtained. For σ el and dσ/dΩ, fixed from experiment, we proved that the optimal scattering entropies are the maximum possible entropies in the scattering process. In as previous paper it was shown that the experimental values of the entropies for the pion--nucleus scatterings are systematically described by the optimal entropies, at all available pion kinetic energies. In this sense the obtained results can also be considered as new experimental signatures for the validity of the principle of minimum distance in space of scattering states. The extension of the optimal state analysis to the generalized non-extensive statistics case, as well as, a test of the entropic inequalities, can be obtained in similar way by using non-extensive optimal entropies. Since this kind of analysis is more involved the numerical examples will be given in a following more extended paper. Finally, we believe that the results obtained here are encouraging for further investigations of the entropic uncertainty relations as well
Adaptive relative pose control of spacecraft with model couplings and uncertainties
Sun, Liang; Zheng, Zewei
2018-02-01
The spacecraft pose tracking control problem for an uncertain pursuer approaching to a space target is researched in this paper. After modeling the nonlinearly coupled dynamics for relative translational and rotational motions between two spacecraft, position tracking and attitude synchronization controllers are developed independently by using a robust adaptive control approach. The unknown kinematic couplings, parametric uncertainties, and bounded external disturbances are handled with adaptive updating laws. It is proved via Lyapunov method that the pose tracking errors converge to zero asymptotically. Spacecraft close-range rendezvous and proximity operations are introduced as an example to validate the effectiveness of the proposed control approach.
Sabouri, Sarah; Gerber, Markus; Lemola, Sakari; Becker, Stephen P; Shamsi, Mahin; Shakouri, Zeinab; Sadeghi Bahmani, Dena; Kalak, Nadeem; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith; Brand, Serge
2016-07-01
The Dark Triad (DT) describes a set of three closely related personality traits, Machiavellianism, narcissism, and psychopathy. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between DT traits, sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty. A total of 341 adults (M=29years) completed a series of questionnaires related to the DT traits, sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity, and intolerance of uncertainty. A higher DT total score was associated with increased sleep disturbances, and higher scores for anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty. In regression analyses Machiavellianism and psychopathy were predictors of sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity, and intolerance of uncertainty. Results indicate that specific DT traits, namely Machiavellianism and psychopathy, are associated with sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty in young adults. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Chen, Min-Nan; Sun, Wen-Yang; Huang, Ai-Jun; Ming, Fei; Wang, Dong; Ye, Liu
2018-01-01
In this work, we investigate the dynamics of quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations under open systems, and how to steer the uncertainty under different types of decoherence. Specifically, we develop the dynamical behaviors of the uncertainty of interest under two typical categories of noise; bit flipping and depolarizing channels. It has been shown that the measurement uncertainty firstly increases and then decreases with the growth of the decoherence strength in bit flipping channels. In contrast, the uncertainty monotonically increases with the increase of the decoherence strength in depolarizing channels. Notably, and to a large degree, it is shown that the uncertainty depends on both the systematic quantum correlation and the minimal conditional entropy of the observed subsystem. Moreover, we present a possible physical interpretation for these distinctive behaviors of the uncertainty within such scenarios. Furthermore, we propose a simple and effective strategy to reduce the entropic uncertainty by means of a partially collapsed operation—quantum weak measurement. Therefore, our investigations might offer an insight into the dynamics of the measurment uncertainty under decoherence, and be of importance to quantum precision measurement in open systems.
Covariant energy–momentum and an uncertainty principle for general relativity
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cooperstock, F.I., E-mail: cooperst@uvic.ca [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 3055, Victoria, B.C. V8W 3P6 (Canada); Dupre, M.J., E-mail: mdupre@tulane.edu [Department of Mathematics, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118 (United States)
2013-12-15
We introduce a naturally-defined totally invariant spacetime energy expression for general relativity incorporating the contribution from gravity. The extension links seamlessly to the action integral for the gravitational field. The demand that the general expression for arbitrary systems reduces to the Tolman integral in the case of stationary bounded distributions, leads to the matter-localized Ricci integral for energy–momentum in support of the energy localization hypothesis. The role of the observer is addressed and as an extension of the special relativistic case, the field of observers comoving with the matter is seen to compute the intrinsic global energy of a system. The new localized energy supports the Bonnor claim that the Szekeres collapsing dust solutions are energy-conserving. It is suggested that in the extreme of strong gravity, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle be generalized in terms of spacetime energy–momentum. -- Highlights: •We present a totally invariant spacetime energy expression for general relativity incorporating the contribution from gravity. •Demand for the general expression to reduce to the Tolman integral for stationary systems supports the Ricci integral as energy–momentum. •Localized energy via the Ricci integral is consistent with the energy localization hypothesis. •New localized energy supports the Bonnor claim that the Szekeres collapsing dust solutions are energy-conserving. •Suggest the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle be generalized in terms of spacetime energy–momentum in strong gravity extreme.
Management of uncertainties related to renewable generation participation in electricity markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bourry, Franck
2009-01-01
The operation of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) units, such as wind or solar plants, is intrinsically dependent on the variability of the wind or solar resource. This makes large scale integration of RES into power systems particularly challenging. The research work in the frame of this thesis focuses on the participation of renewable power producers in liberalized electricity markets, and more precisely on the management of the regulation costs incurred by the producer for any imbalance between the contracted and delivered energy. In such context, the main objective of the thesis is to model and evaluate different methods for the management of imbalance penalties related to the participation of renewable power producers in short-term electricity markets. First, the thesis gives a classification of the existing solutions for the management of these imbalance penalties. A distinction is made between physical solutions which are related to the generation portfolio, and financial solutions which are based on market products. The physical solutions are considered in the frame of a Virtual Power Plant. A generic model of the imbalance penalty resulting from the use of physical or financial solutions is formulated, based on a market rule model. Then, the decision-making problem relative to both physical and financial solutions is formulated as an optimization problem under uncertainty. The approach is based on a loss function derived from the generic imbalance penalty model. Finally, the uncertainty related to the RES production is considered in the risk-based decision making process. The methods are illustrated using case studies based on real world data. (author)
Wang, Dong; Huang, Aijun; Ming, Fei; Sun, Wenyang; Lu, Heping; Liu, Chengcheng; Ye, Liu
2017-06-01
The uncertainty principle provides a nontrivial bound to expose the precision for the outcome of the measurement on a pair of incompatible observables in a quantum system. Therefore, it is of essential importance for quantum precision measurement in the area of quantum information processing. Herein, we investigate quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation (QMA-EUR) in a two-qubit Heisenberg \\boldsymbol{X}\\boldsymbol{Y}\\boldsymbol{Z} spin chain. Specifically, we observe the dynamics of QMA-EUR in a realistic model there are two correlated sites linked by a thermal entanglement in the spin chain with an inhomogeneous magnetic field. It turns out that the temperature, the external inhomogeneous magnetic field and the field inhomogeneity can lift the uncertainty of the measurement due to the reduction of the thermal entanglement, and explicitly higher temperature, stronger magnetic field or larger inhomogeneity of the field can result in inflation of the uncertainty. Besides, it is found that there exists distinct dynamical behaviors of the uncertainty for ferromagnetism \\boldsymbol{}≤ft(\\boldsymbol{J}\\boldsymbol{0}\\right) chains. Moreover, we also verify that the measuring uncertainty is dramatically anti-correlated with the purity of the bipartite spin system, the greater purity can result in the reduction of the measuring uncertainty, vice versa. Therefore, our observations might provide a better understanding of the dynamics of the entropic uncertainty in the Heisenberg spin chain, and thus shed light on quantum precision measurement in the framework of versatile systems, particularly solid states.
Managing uncertainty in multiple-criteria decision making related to sustainability assessment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dorini, Gianluca Fabio; Kapelan, Zoran; Azapagic, Adisa
2011-01-01
In real life, decisions are usually made by comparing different options with respect to several, often conflicting criteria. This requires subjective judgements on the importance of different criteria by DMs and increases uncertainty in decision making. This article demonstrates how uncertainty can......: (1) no uncertainty, (2) uncertainty in data/models and (3) uncertainty in models and decision-makers’ preferences. The results shows how characterising and propagating uncertainty can help increase the effectiveness of multi-criteria decision making processes and lead to more informed decision....... be handled in multi-criteria decision situations using Compromise Programming, one of the Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques. Uncertainty is characterised using a probabilistic approach and propagated using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The methodological approach is illustrated...
On the Exact Solution Explaining the Accelerate Expanding Universe According to General Relativity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rabounski D.
2012-04-01
Full Text Available A new method of calculation is applied to the frequency of a photon according to the tra- velled distance. It consists in solving the scalar geodesic equation (equation of energy of the photon, and manifests gravitation, non-holonomity, and deformation of space as the intrinsic geometric factors affecting the photon’s frequency. The solution obtained in the expanding space of Friedmann’s metric manifests the exponential cosmological redshift: its magnitude increases, exponentially, with distance. This explains the acce- lerate expansion of the Universe registered recently by the astronomers. According to the obtained solution, the redshift reaches the ultimately high value z = e π − 1 = 22 . 14 at the event horizon.
Entanglement criterion for tripartite systems based on local sum uncertainty relations
Akbari-Kourbolagh, Y.; Azhdargalam, M.
2018-04-01
We propose a sufficient criterion for the entanglement of tripartite systems based on local sum uncertainty relations for arbitrarily chosen observables of subsystems. This criterion generalizes the tighter criterion for bipartite systems introduced by Zhang et al. [C.-J. Zhang, H. Nha, Y.-S. Zhang, and G.-C. Guo, Phys. Rev. A 81, 012324 (2010), 10.1103/PhysRevA.81.012324] and can be used for both discrete- and continuous-variable systems. It enables us to detect the entanglement of quantum states without having a complete knowledge of them. Its utility is illustrated by some examples of three-qubit, qutrit-qutrit-qubit, and three-mode Gaussian states. It is found that, in comparison with other criteria, this criterion is able to detect some three-qubit bound entangled states more efficiently.
The small sample uncertainty aspect in relation to bullwhip effect measurement
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Erland Hejn
2009-01-01
The bullwhip effect as a concept has been known for almost half a century starting with the Forrester effect. The bullwhip effect is observed in many supply chains, and it is generally accepted as a potential malice. Despite of this fact, the bullwhip effect still seems to be first and foremost...... a conceptual phenomenon. This paper intends primarily to investigate why this might be so and thereby investigate the various aspects, possibilities and obstacles that must be taken into account, when considering the potential practical use and measure of the bullwhip effect in order to actually get the supply...... chain under control. This paper will put special emphasis on the unavoidable small-sample uncertainty aspects relating to the measurement or estimation of the bullwhip effect. ...
The Beam Dynamics and Beam Related Uncertainties in Fermilab Muon $g-2$ Experiment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wu, Wanwei [Mississippi U.
2018-05-01
The anomaly of the muon magnetic moment, $a_{\\mu}\\equiv (g-2)/2$, has played an important role in constraining physics beyond the Standard Model for many years. Currently, the Standard Model prediction for $a_{\\mu}$ is accurate to 0.42 parts per million (ppm). The most recent muon $g-2$ experiment was done at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and determined $a_{\\mu}$ to 0.54 ppm, with a central value that differs from the Standard Model prediction by 3.3-3.6 standard deviations and provides a strong hint of new physics. The Fermilab Muon $g-2$ Experiment has a goal to measure $a_{\\mu}$ to unprecedented precision: 0.14 ppm, which could provide an unambiguous answer to the question whether there are new particles and forces that exist in nature. To achieve this goal, several items have been identified to lower the systematic uncertainties. In this work, we focus on the beam dynamics and beam associated uncertainties, which are important and must be better understood. We will discuss the electrostatic quadrupole system, particularly the hardware-related quad plate alignment and the quad extension and readout system. We will review the beam dynamics in the muon storage ring, present discussions on the beam related systematic errors, simulate the 3D electric fields of the electrostatic quadrupoles and examine the beam resonances. We will use a fast rotation analysis to study the muon radial momentum distribution, which provides the key input for evaluating the electric field correction to the measured $a_{\\mu}$.
The Uncertainties of Risk Management
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vinnari, Eija; Skærbæk, Peter
2014-01-01
for expanding risk management. More generally, such uncertainties relate to the professional identities and responsibilities of operational managers as defined by the framing devices. Originality/value – The paper offers three contributions to the extant literature: first, it shows how risk management itself......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the implementation of risk management as a tool for internal audit activities, focusing on unexpected effects or uncertainties generated during its application. Design/methodology/approach – Public and confidential documents as well as semi......-structured interviews are analysed through the lens of actor-network theory to identify the effects of risk management devices in a Finnish municipality. Findings – The authors found that risk management, rather than reducing uncertainty, itself created unexpected uncertainties that would otherwise not have emerged...
Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)
Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.
2016-04-01
Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.
Servin, Christian
2015-01-01
On various examples ranging from geosciences to environmental sciences, this book explains how to generate an adequate description of uncertainty, how to justify semiheuristic algorithms for processing uncertainty, and how to make these algorithms more computationally efficient. It explains in what sense the existing approach to uncertainty as a combination of random and systematic components is only an approximation, presents a more adequate three-component model with an additional periodic error component, and explains how uncertainty propagation techniques can be extended to this model. The book provides a justification for a practically efficient heuristic technique (based on fuzzy decision-making). It explains how the computational complexity of uncertainty processing can be reduced. The book also shows how to take into account that in real life, the information about uncertainty is often only partially known, and, on several practical examples, explains how to extract the missing information about uncer...
Mezzasalma, Stefano A
2007-03-15
The theoretical basis of a recent theory of Brownian relativity for polymer solutions is deepened and reexamined. After the problem of relative diffusion in polymer solutions is addressed, its two postulates are formulated in all generality. The former builds a statistical equivalence between (uncorrelated) timelike and shapelike reference frames, that is, among dynamical trajectories of liquid molecules and static configurations of polymer chains. The latter defines the "diffusive horizon" as the invariant quantity to work with in the special version of the theory. Particularly, the concept of universality in polymer physics corresponds in Brownian relativity to that of covariance in the Einstein formulation. Here, a "universal" law consists of a privileged observation, performed from the laboratory rest frame and agreeing with any diffusive reference system. From the joint lack of covariance and simultaneity implied by the Brownian Lorentz-Poincaré transforms, a relative uncertainty arises, in a certain analogy with quantum mechanics. It is driven by the difference between local diffusion coefficients in the liquid solution. The same transformation class can be used to infer Fick's second law of diffusion, playing here the role of a gauge invariance preserving covariance of the spacetime increments. An overall, noteworthy conclusion emerging from this view concerns the statistics of (i) static macromolecular configurations and (ii) the motion of liquid molecules, which would be much more related than expected.
Expanding the landscape of chromatin modification (CM-related functional domains and genes in human.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shuye Pu
2010-11-01
Full Text Available Chromatin modification (CM plays a key role in regulating transcription, DNA replication, repair and recombination. However, our knowledge of these processes in humans remains very limited. Here we use computational approaches to study proteins and functional domains involved in CM in humans. We analyze the abundance and the pair-wise domain-domain co-occurrences of 25 well-documented CM domains in 5 model organisms: yeast, worm, fly, mouse and human. Results show that domains involved in histone methylation, DNA methylation, and histone variants are remarkably expanded in metazoan, reflecting the increased demand for cell type-specific gene regulation. We find that CM domains tend to co-occur with a limited number of partner domains and are hence not promiscuous. This property is exploited to identify 47 potentially novel CM domains, including 24 DNA-binding domains, whose role in CM has received little attention so far. Lastly, we use a consensus Machine Learning approach to predict 379 novel CM genes (coding for 329 proteins in humans based on domain compositions. Several of these predictions are supported by very recent experimental studies and others are slated for experimental verification. Identification of novel CM genes and domains in humans will aid our understanding of fundamental epigenetic processes that are important for stem cell differentiation and cancer biology. Information on all the candidate CM domains and genes reported here is publicly available.
Quantifying uncertainties of climate signals related to the 11-year solar cycle
Kruschke, T.; Kunze, M.; Matthes, K. B.; Langematz, U.; Wahl, S.
2017-12-01
Although state-of-the-art reconstructions based on proxies and (semi-)empirical models converge in terms of total solar irradiance, they still significantly differ in terms of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) with respect to the mean spectral distribution of energy input and temporal variability. This study aims at quantifying uncertainties for the Earth's climate related to the 11-year solar cycle by forcing two chemistry-climate models (CCMs) - CESM1(WACCM) and EMAC - with five different SSI reconstructions (NRLSSI1, NRLSSI2, SATIRE-T, SATIRE-S, CMIP6-SSI) and the reference spectrum RSSV1-ATLAS3, derived from observations. We conduct a unique set of timeslice experiments. External forcings and boundary conditions are fixed and identical for all experiments, except for the solar forcing. The set of analyzed simulations consists of one solar minimum simulation, employing RSSV1-ATLAS3 and five solar maximum experiments. The latter are a result of adding the amplitude of solar cycle 22 according to the five reconstructions to RSSV1-ATLAS3. Our results show that the climate response to the 11y solar cycle is generally robust across CCMs and SSI forcings. However, analyzing the variance of the solar maximum ensemble by means of ANOVA-statistics reveals additional information on the uncertainties of the mean climate signals. The annual mean response agrees very well between the two CCMs for most parts of the lower and middle atmosphere. Only the upper mesosphere is subject to significant differences related to the choice of the model. However, the different SSI forcings lead to significant differences in ozone concentrations, shortwave heating rates, and temperature throughout large parts of the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. Regarding the seasonal evolution of the climate signals, our findings for short wave heating rates, and temperature are similar to the annual means with respect to the relative importance of the choice of the model or the SSI forcing for the
Badawy, B.; Fletcher, C. G.
2017-12-01
The parameterization of snow processes in land surface models is an important source of uncertainty in climate simulations. Quantifying the importance of snow-related parameters, and their uncertainties, may therefore lead to better understanding and quantification of uncertainty within integrated earth system models. However, quantifying the uncertainty arising from parameterized snow processes is challenging due to the high-dimensional parameter space, poor observational constraints, and parameter interaction. In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of the land simulation to uncertainty in snow microphysical parameters in the Canadian LAnd Surface Scheme (CLASS) using an uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach. A set of training cases (n=400) from CLASS is used to sample each parameter across its full range of empirical uncertainty, as determined from available observations and expert elicitation. A statistical learning model using support vector regression (SVR) is then constructed from the training data (CLASS output variables) to efficiently emulate the dynamical CLASS simulations over a much larger (n=220) set of cases. This approach is used to constrain the plausible range for each parameter using a skill score, and to identify the parameters with largest influence on the land simulation in CLASS at global and regional scales, using a random forest (RF) permutation importance algorithm. Preliminary sensitivity tests indicate that snow albedo refreshment threshold and the limiting snow depth, below which bare patches begin to appear, have the highest impact on snow output variables. The results also show a considerable reduction of the plausible ranges of the parameters values and hence reducing their uncertainty ranges, which can lead to a significant reduction of the model uncertainty. The implementation and results of this study will be presented and discussed in details.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Panka, Istvan; Hegyi, Gyoergy; Maraczy, Csaba; Temesvari, Emese [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest (Hungary). Reactor Analysis Dept.
2017-11-15
The best-estimate KARATE code system has been widely used for core design calculations and simulations of slow transients of VVER reactors. Recently there has been an increasing need for assessing the uncertainties of such calculations by propagating the basic input uncertainties of the models through the full calculation chain. In order to determine the uncertainties of quantities of interest during the burnup, the statistical version of the KARATE code system has been elaborated. In the first part of the paper, the main features of the new code system are discussed. The applied statistical method is based on Monte-Carlo sampling of the considered input data taking into account mainly the covariance matrices of the cross sections and/or the technological uncertainties. In the second part of the paper, only the uncertainties of cross sections are considered and an equilibrium cycle related to a VVER-440 type reactor is investigated. The burnup dependence of the uncertainties of some safety related parameters (e.g. critical boron concentration, rod worth, feedback coefficients, assembly-wise radial power and burnup distribution) are discussed and compared to the recently used limits.
Uncertainties in relation to CO2 capture and sequestration. Preliminary results. Working Paper
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gielen, D.
2003-03-01
This paper has been presented at an expert meeting on CO2 capture technology learning at the IEA headquarters, January 24th, 2003. The electricity sector is a key source of CO2 emissions and a strong increase of emissions is forecast in a business-as-usual scenario. A range of strategies have been proposed to reduce these emissions. This paper focuses on one of the promising strategies, CO2 capture and storage. The future role of CO2 capture in the electricity sector has been assessed, using the Energy Technology Perspectives model (ETP). Technology data have been collected and reviewed in cooperation with the IEA Greenhouse Gas R and D implementing agreement and other expert groups. CO2 capture and sequestration is based on relatively new technology. Therefore, its characteristics and its future role in the energy system is subject to uncertainties, as for any new technology. The analysis suggests that the choice of a reference electricity production technology and the characteristics of the CO2 storage option constitute the two main uncertainties, apart from a large number of other factors of lesser importance. Based on the choices made cost estimates can range from less than zero USD for coal fired power plants to more than 150 USD per ton of CO2 for gas fired power plants. The results suggest that learning effects are important, but they do not affect the CO2 capture costs significantly, other uncertainties dominate the cost estimates. The ETP model analysis, where choices are based on the ideal market hypothesis and rational price based decision making, suggest up to 18% of total global electricity production will be equipped with CO2 capture by 2040, in case of a penalty of 50 US$ per ton of CO2. However this high penetration is only achieved in case coal fired IGCC-SOFC power plants are developed successfully. Without such technology only a limited amount of CO2 is captured from gas fired power plants. Higher penalties may result in a higher share of CO2
Uncertainty Forecasts Improve Weather-Related Decisions and Attenuate the Effects of Forecast Error
Joslyn, Susan L.; LeClerc, Jared E.
2012-01-01
Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather…
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Landsberg, P.T.
1990-01-01
This paper explores how the quantum mechanics uncertainty relation can be considered to result from measurements. A distinction is drawn between the uncertainties obtained by scrutinising experiments and the standard deviation type of uncertainty definition used in quantum formalism. (UK)
Shen, Mingxi; Chen, Jie; Zhuan, Meijia; Chen, Hua; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xiong, Lihua
2018-01-01
Uncertainty estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology has received much attention in the research community. The choice of a global climate model (GCM) is usually considered as the largest contributor to the uncertainty of climate change impacts. The temporal variation of GCM uncertainty needs to be investigated for making long-term decisions to deal with climate change. Accordingly, this study investigated the temporal variation (mainly long-term) of uncertainty related to the choice of a GCM in predicting climate change impacts on hydrology by using multi-GCMs over multiple continuous future periods. Specifically, twenty CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were adapted to adequately represent this uncertainty envelope, fifty-one 30-year future periods moving from 2021 to 2100 with 1-year interval were produced to express the temporal variation. Future climatic and hydrological regimes over all future periods were compared to those in the reference period (1971-2000) using a set of metrics, including mean and extremes. The periodicity of climatic and hydrological changes and their uncertainty were analyzed using wavelet analysis, while the trend was analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test and regression analysis. The results showed that both future climate change (precipitation and temperature) and hydrological response predicted by the twenty GCMs were highly uncertain, and the uncertainty increased significantly over time. For example, the change of mean annual precipitation increased from 1.4% in 2021-2050 to 6.5% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5 in terms of the median value of multi-models, but the projected uncertainty reached 21.7% in 2021-2050 and 25.1% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5. The uncertainty under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) was much larger than that under a relatively low emission scenario (RCP4.5). Almost all climatic and hydrological regimes and their uncertainty did not show significant periodicity at the P = .05 significance
Strawhun, Jenna; Adams, Natasha; Huss, Matthew T
2013-01-01
Because the first antistalking statute was enacted in California in 1990, stalking research has been expanded immensely, yet been largely confined to exploring traditional pursuit tactics. This study instead examined the prevalence and correlates of cyberstalking behaviors while examining the phenomenon in a more inclusive manner than previous studies focusing on cyberstalking by including social networking avenues. In addition to a measure assessing cyberstalking-related behaviors, questionnaires assessing pathological aspects of personality, including attachment style, interpersonal jealousy, interpersonal violence, and anger were also provided to participants. Results indicate that, given preliminary evidence, cyberstalking-related behaviors are related to past measures of traditional stalking and cyberstalking, although prior attachment, jealousy, and violence issues within relationships are significant predictors of cyberstalking-related behaviors. In addition, unexpected gender differences emerged. For example, women admitted greater frequencies of cyberstalking perpetration than males, signaling that further research on frequency and motivation for cyberstalking among the sexes is necessary.
Carcioppolo, Nick; Yang, Fan; Yang, Qinghua
2016-09-01
Uncertainty is a central characteristic of many aspects of cancer prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment. Brashers's (2001) uncertainty management theory details the multifaceted nature of uncertainty and describes situations in which uncertainty can both positively and negatively affect health outcomes. The current study extends theory on uncertainty management by developing four scale measures of uncertainty preferences in the context of cancer. Two national surveys were conducted to validate the scales and assess convergent and concurrent validity. Results support the factor structure of each measure and provide general support across multiple validity assessments. These scales can advance research on uncertainty and cancer communication by providing researchers with measures that address multiple aspects of uncertainty management.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dijk, Eduard van; Kolkman-Deurloo, Inger-Karine K.; Damen, Patricia M. G.
2004-01-01
Different methods exist to determine the air kerma calibration factor of an ionization chamber for the spectrum of a 192 Ir high-dose-rate (HDR) or pulsed-dose-rate (PDR) source. An analysis of two methods to obtain such a calibration factor was performed: (i) the method recommended by [Goetsch et al., Med. Phys. 18, 462-467 (1991)] and (ii) the method employed by the Dutch national standards institute NMi [Petersen et al., Report S-EI-94.01 (NMi, Delft, The Netherlands, 1994)]. This analysis showed a systematic difference on the order of 1% in the determination of the strength of 192 Ir HDR and PDR sources depending on the method used for determining the air kerma calibration factor. The definitive significance of the difference between these methods can only be addressed after performing an accurate analysis of the associated uncertainties. For an NE 2561 (or equivalent) ionization chamber and an in-air jig, a typical uncertainty budget of 0.94% was found with the NMi method. The largest contribution in the type-B uncertainty is the uncertainty in the air kerma calibration factor for isotope i, N k i , as determined by the primary or secondary standards laboratories. This uncertainty is dominated by the uncertainties in the physical constants for the average mass-energy absorption coefficient ratio and the stopping power ratios. This means that it is not foreseeable that the standards laboratories can decrease the uncertainty in the air kerma calibration factors for ionization chambers in the short term. When the results of the determination of the 192 Ir reference air kerma rates in, e.g., different institutes are compared, the uncertainties in the physical constants are the same. To compare the applied techniques, the ratio of the results can be judged by leaving out the uncertainties due to these physical constants. In that case an uncertainty budget of 0.40% (coverage factor=2) should be taken into account. Due to the differences in approach between the
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yu Watanabe; Masahito Ueda
2012-01-01
Full text: When we try to obtain information about a quantum system, we need to perform measurement on the system. The measurement process causes unavoidable state change. Heisenberg discussed a thought experiment of the position measurement of a particle by using a gamma-ray microscope, and found a trade-off relation between the error of the measured position and the disturbance in the momentum caused by the measurement process. The trade-off relation epitomizes the complementarity in quantum measurements: we cannot perform a measurement of an observable without causing disturbance in its canonically conjugate observable. However, at the time Heisenberg found the complementarity, quantum measurement theory was not established yet, and Kennard and Robertson's inequality erroneously interpreted as a mathematical formulation of the complementarity. Kennard and Robertson's inequality actually implies the indeterminacy of the quantum state: non-commuting observables cannot have definite values simultaneously. However, Kennard and Robertson's inequality reflects the inherent nature of a quantum state alone, and does not concern any trade-off relation between the error and disturbance in the measurement process. In this talk, we report a resolution to the complementarity in quantum measurements. First, we find that it is necessary to involve the estimation process from the outcome of the measurement for quantifying the error and disturbance in the quantum measurement. We clarify the implicitly involved estimation process in Heisenberg's gamma-ray microscope and other measurement schemes, and formulate the error and disturbance for an arbitrary quantum measurement by using quantum estimation theory. The error and disturbance are defined in terms of the Fisher information, which gives the upper bound of the accuracy of the estimation. Second, we obtain uncertainty relations between the measurement errors of two observables [1], and between the error and disturbance in the
Mazziotti, David A.; Erdahl, Robert M.
2001-04-01
For the description of ground-state correlation phenomena an accurate mapping of many-body quantum mechanics onto four particles is developed. The energy for a quantum system with no more than two-particle interactions may be expressed in terms of a two-particle reduced density matrix (2-RDM), but variational optimization of the 2-RDM requires that it corresponds to an N-particle wave function. We derive N-representability conditions on the 2-RDM that guarantee the validity of the uncertainty relations for all operators with two-particle interactions. One of these conditions is shown to be necessary and sufficient to make the RDM solutions of the dispersion condition equivalent to those from the contracted Schrödinger equation (CSE) [Mazziotti, Phys. Rev. A 57, 4219 (1998)]. In general, the CSE is a stronger N-representability condition than the dispersion condition because the CSE implies the dispersion condition as well as additional N-representability constraints from the Hellmann-Feynman theorem. Energy minimization subject to the representability constraints is performed for a boson model with 10, 30, and 75 particles. Even when traditional wave-function methods fail at large perturbations, the present method yields correlation energies within 2%.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Amitabh, J.; Vaccaro, J.A.; Hill, K.E.
1998-01-01
We study the recently defined number-phase Wigner function S NP (n,θ) for a single-mode field considered to be in binomial and negative binomial states. These states interpolate between Fock and coherent states and coherent and quasi thermal states, respectively, and thus provide a set of states with properties ranging from uncertain phase and sharp photon number to sharp phase and uncertain photon number. The distribution function S NP (n,θ) gives a graphical representation of the complimentary nature of the number and phase properties of these states. We highlight important differences between Wigner's quasi probability function, which is associated with the position and momentum observables, and S NP (n,θ), which is associated directly with the photon number and phase observables. We also discuss the number-phase entropic uncertainty relation for the binomial and negative binomial states and we show that negative binomial states give a lower phase entropy than states which minimize the phase variance
Prominent scapulae mimicking an inherited myopathy expands the phenotype of CHD7-related disease
O'Grady, Gina L.; Ma, Alan; Sival, Deborah; Wong, Monica T. Y.; Peduto, Tony; Menezes, Manoj P.; Young, Helen; Waddell, Leigh; Ghaoui, Roula; Needham, Merrilee; Lek, Monkol; North, Kathryn N.; MacArthur, Daniel G.; van Ravenswaaij-Arts, Conny M. A.; Clarke, Nigel F.
CHD7 variants are a well-established cause of CHARGE syndrome, a disabling multi-system malformation disorder that is often associated with deafness, visual impairment and intellectual disability. Less severe forms of CHD7-related disease are known to exist, but the full spectrum of phenotypes
DeWeber, Jefferson T.; Wagner, Tyler
2018-01-01
Predictions of the projected changes in species distributions and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30‐day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) known to limit a species’ distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold‐water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern United States. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid‐century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as .2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation
DeWeber, Jefferson T; Wagner, Tyler
2018-06-01
Predictions of the projected changes in species distributions and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30-day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) known to limit a species' distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold-water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern United States. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid-century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as .2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation actions. Our
C9orf72-related disorders: expanding the clinical and genetic spectrum of neurodegenerative diseases
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paulo Victor Sgobbi de Souza
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Neurodegenerative diseases represent a heterogeneous group of neurological conditions primarily involving dementia, motor neuron disease and movement disorders. They are mostly related to different pathophysiological processes, notably in family forms in which the clinical and genetic heterogeneity are lush. In the last decade, much knowledge has been acumulated about the genetics of neurodegenerative diseases, making it essential in cases of motor neuron disease and frontotemporal dementia the repeat expansions of C9orf72 gene. This review analyzes the main clinical, radiological and genetic aspects of the phenotypes related to the hexanucleotide repeat expansions (GGGGCC of C9orf72 gene. Future studies will aim to further characterize the neuropsychological, imaging and pathological aspects of the extra-motor features of motor neuron disease, and will help to provide a new classification system that is both clinically and biologically relevant.
Karel, Michele J; Teri, Linda; McConnell, Eleanor; Visnic, Stephanie; Karlin, Bradley E
2016-02-01
Nonpharmacological, psychosocial approaches are first-line treatments for managing behavioral symptoms in dementia, but they can be challenging to implement in long-term care settings. The Veterans Health Administration implemented STAR-VA, an interdisciplinary behavioral approach for managing challenging dementia-related behaviors in its Community Living Center (CLCs, nursing home care) settings. This study describes how the program was implemented and provides an evaluation of Veteran clinical outcomes and staff feedback on the intervention. One mental health professional and registered nurse team from 17 CLCs completed STAR-VA training, which entailed an experiential workshop followed by 6 months of expert consultation as they worked with their teams to implement STAR-VA with Veterans identified to have challenging dementia-related behaviors. The frequency and severity of target behaviors and symptoms of depression, anxiety, and agitation were evaluated at baseline and at intervention completion. Staff provided feedback regarding STAR-VA feasibility and impact. Seventy-one Veterans completed the intervention. Behaviors clustered into 6 types: care refusal or resistance, agitation, aggression, vocalization, wandering, and other. Frequency and severity of target behaviors and symptoms of depression, anxiety, and agitation all significantly decreased, with overall effect sizes of 1 or greater. Staff rated both benefits for Veterans and program feasibility favorably. This evaluation supports the feasibility and effectiveness of STAR-VA, an interdisciplinary, behavioral intervention for managing challenging behaviors among residents with dementia in CLCs. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Gerontological Society of America 2015.
Li, Xi-Zeng; Su, Bao-Xia
1996-01-01
It is found that the field of the combined mode of the probe wave and the phase-conjugate wave in the process of non-degenerate four-wave mixing exhibits higher-order squeezing to all even orders. And the generalized uncertainty relations in this process are also presented.
Ando, Amy W; Mallory, Mindy L
2012-04-24
Climate change is likely to alter the spatial distributions of species and habitat types but the nature of such change is uncertain. Thus, climate change makes it difficult to implement standard conservation planning paradigms. Previous work has suggested some approaches to cope with such uncertainty but has not harnessed all of the benefits of risk diversification. We adapt Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to optimal spatial targeting of conservation activity, using wetland habitat conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) as an example. This approach finds the allocations of conservation activity among subregions of the planning area that maximize the expected conservation returns for a given level of uncertainty or minimize uncertainty for a given expected level of returns. We find that using MPT instead of simple diversification in the PPR can achieve a value of the conservation objective per dollar spent that is 15% higher for the same level of risk. MPT-based portfolios can also have 21% less uncertainty over benefits or 6% greater expected benefits than the current portfolio of PPR conservation. Total benefits from conservation investment are higher if returns are defined in terms of benefit-cost ratios rather than benefits alone. MPT-guided diversification can work to reduce the climate-change-induced uncertainty of future ecosystem-service benefits from many land policy and investment initiatives, especially when outcomes are negatively correlated between subregions of a planning area.
Assessment the impact of samplers change on the uncertainty related to geothermalwater sampling
Wątor, Katarzyna; Mika, Anna; Sekuła, Klaudia; Kmiecik, Ewa
2018-02-01
The aim of this study is to assess the impact of samplers change on the uncertainty associated with the process of the geothermal water sampling. The study was carried out on geothermal water exploited in Podhale region, southern Poland (Małopolska province). To estimate the uncertainty associated with sampling the results of determinations of metasilicic acid (H2SiO3) in normal and duplicate samples collected in two series were used (in each series the samples were collected by qualified sampler). Chemical analyses were performed using ICP-OES method in the certified Hydrogeochemical Laboratory of the Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology Department at the AGH University of Science and Technology in Krakow (Certificate of Polish Centre for Accreditation No. AB 1050). To evaluate the uncertainty arising from sampling the empirical approach was implemented, based on double analysis of normal and duplicate samples taken from the same well in the series of testing. The analyses of the results were done using ROBAN software based on technique of robust statistics analysis of variance (rANOVA). Conducted research proved that in the case of qualified and experienced samplers uncertainty connected with the sampling can be reduced what results in small measurement uncertainty.
Ando, Amy W.; Mallory, Mindy L.
2012-01-01
Climate change is likely to alter the spatial distributions of species and habitat types but the nature of such change is uncertain. Thus, climate change makes it difficult to implement standard conservation planning paradigms. Previous work has suggested some approaches to cope with such uncertainty but has not harnessed all of the benefits of risk diversification. We adapt Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to optimal spatial targeting of conservation activity, using wetland habitat conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) as an example. This approach finds the allocations of conservation activity among subregions of the planning area that maximize the expected conservation returns for a given level of uncertainty or minimize uncertainty for a given expected level of returns. We find that using MPT instead of simple diversification in the PPR can achieve a value of the conservation objective per dollar spent that is 15% higher for the same level of risk. MPT-based portfolios can also have 21% less uncertainty over benefits or 6% greater expected benefits than the current portfolio of PPR conservation. Total benefits from conservation investment are higher if returns are defined in terms of benefit–cost ratios rather than benefits alone. MPT-guided diversification can work to reduce the climate-change–induced uncertainty of future ecosystem-service benefits from many land policy and investment initiatives, especially when outcomes are negatively correlated between subregions of a planning area. PMID:22451914
Pal, Dilipkumar; Banerjee, Subham; Ghosh, Ashoke Kumar
2012-01-01
Diet plays a vital role in the management of cancer because they are the source of important physiologically functional components. Scientific observations support the idea that dietary supplement can prevent breast cancer recurrences. Strong correlations are established between the high intake of saturated fat and the incidence of different types of cancer. It is found that chronic alcohol consumption is associated with increased risk of cancers of oral cavity, pharynx, esophagus, and larynx. Again, some evidences are also found regarding phosphorous, glutamate level in the body, and incidence of cancer. Different physiologically functional components are found in the dietary materials. Fibers, the major dietary components, have long been recognized for the unique properties in the treatment of cancer, which are related to its antineoplastic functions. Antioxidant rich diet has been added to the list of cancer-preventing dietary components. Also, recently published research has shown that natural carotenoids in the diet leads to a normalization of body epithelial cells and protects against the risk of stomach and esophagus cancer, and improves the immune system's response. Again, fruit juices, processed vegetable juices, orange peel, green tea, vitamins, flavonoids, and trace materials have cancer inhibitory properties. Clearly, there has been increasing recognition of chemoprotective functions. Now, it can be recognized for another kind of functionality for the improvement of the health of mankind.
New ALS-Related Genes Expand the Spectrum Paradigm of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis.
Sabatelli, Mario; Marangi, Giuseppe; Conte, Amelia; Tasca, Giorgio; Zollino, Marcella; Lattante, Serena
2016-03-01
Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is characterized by the degeneration of upper and lower motor neurons. Clinical heterogeneity is a well-recognized feature of the disease as age of onset, site of onset and the duration of the disease can vary greatly among patients. A number of genes have been identified and associated to familial and sporadic forms of ALS but the majority of cases remains still unexplained. Recent breakthrough discoveries have demonstrated that clinical manifestations associated with ALS-related genes are not circumscribed to motor neurons involvement. In this view, ALS appears to be linked to different conditions over a continuum or spectrum in which overlapping phenotypes may be identified. In this review, we aim to examine the increasing number of spectra, including ALS/Frontotemporal Dementia and ALS/Myopathies spectra. Considering all these neurodegenerative disorders as different phenotypes of the same spectrum can help to identify common pathological pathways and consequently new therapeutic targets in these incurable diseases. © 2016 International Society of Neuropathology.
Endoplasmic reticulum stress in obesity and obesity-related disorders: An expanded view.
Pagliassotti, Michael J; Kim, Paul Y; Estrada, Andrea L; Stewart, Claire M; Gentile, Christopher L
2016-09-01
The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) is most notable for its central roles in calcium ion storage, lipid biosynthesis, and protein sorting and processing. By virtue of its extensive membrane contact sites that connect the ER to most other organelles and to the plasma membrane, the ER can also regulate diverse cellular processes including inflammatory and insulin signaling, nutrient metabolism, and cell proliferation and death via a signaling pathway called the unfolded protein response (UPR). Chronic UPR activation has been observed in liver and/or adipose tissue of dietary and genetic murine models of obesity, and in human obesity and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Activation of the UPR in obesity and obesity-related disorders likely has two origins. One linked to classic ER stress involving the ER lumen and one linked to alterations to the ER membrane environment. This review discusses both of these origins and also considers the role of post-translational protein modifications, such as acetylation and palmitoylation, and ER-mitochondrial interactions to obesity-mediated impairments in the ER and activation of the UPR. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dilipkumar Pal
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Diet plays a vital role in the management of cancer because they are the source of important physiologically functional components. Scientific observations support the idea that dietary supplement can prevent breast cancer recurrences. Strong correlations are established between the high intake of saturated fat and the incidence of different types of cancer. It is found that chronic alcohol consumption is associated with increased risk of cancers of oral cavity, pharynx, esophagus, and larynx. Again, some evidences are also found regarding phosphorous, glutamate level in the body, and incidence of cancer. Different physiologically functional components are found in the dietary materials. Fibers, the major dietary components, have long been recognized for the unique properties in the treatment of cancer, which are related to its antineoplastic functions. Antioxidant rich diet has been added to the list of cancer-preventing dietary components. Also, recently published research has shown that natural carotenoids in the diet leads to a normalization of body epithelial cells and protects against the risk of stomach and esophagus cancer, and improves the immune system′s response. Again, fruit juices, processed vegetable juices, orange peel, green tea, vitamins, flavonoids, and trace materials have cancer inhibitory properties. Clearly, there has been increasing recognition of chemoprotective functions. Now, it can be recognized for another kind of functionality for the improvement of the health of mankind.
Geller, Elaine; Foley, Gilbert M
2009-02-01
To outline an expanded framework for clinical practice in speech-language pathology. This framework broadens the focus on discipline-specific knowledge and infuses mental health constructs within the study of communication sciences and disorders, with the objective of expanding the potential "ports or points of entry" (D. Stern, 1995) for clinical intervention with young children who are language impaired. Specific mental health constructs are highlighted in this article. These include relationship-based learning, attachment theory, working dyadically (the client is the child and parent), reflective practice, transference-countertransference, and the use of self. Each construct is explored as to the way it has been applied in traditional and contemporary models of clinical practice. The underlying premise in this framework is that working from a relationally based and reflective perspective augments change and growth in both client and parent(s). The challenge is for speech-language pathologists to embed mental health constructs within their discipline-specific expertise. This leads to paying attention to both observable aspects of clients' behaviors as well as their internal affective states.
Casola, J. H.; Huber, D.
2013-12-01
Many media, academic, government, and advocacy organizations have achieved sophistication in developing effective messages based on scientific information, and can quickly translate salient aspects of emerging climate research and evolving observations. However, there are several ways in which valid messages can be misconstrued by decision makers, leading them to inaccurate conclusions about the risks associated with climate impacts. Three cases will be discussed: 1) Issues of spatial scale in interpreting climate observations: Local climate observations may contradict summary statements about the effects of climate change on larger regional or global spatial scales. Effectively addressing these differences often requires communicators to understand local and regional climate drivers, and the distinction between a 'signal' associated with climate change and local climate 'noise.' Hydrological statistics in Missouri and California are shown to illustrate this case. 2) Issues of complexity related to extreme events: Climate change is typically invoked following a wide range of damaging meteorological events (e.g., heat waves, landfalling hurricanes, tornadoes), regardless of the strength of the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency or severity of that type of event. Examples are drawn from media coverage of several recent events, contrasting useful and potentially confusing word choices and frames. 3) Issues revolving around climate sensitivity: The so-called 'pause' or 'hiatus' in global warming has reverberated strongly through political and business discussions of climate change. Addressing the recent slowdown in warming yields an important opportunity to raise climate literacy in these communities. Attempts to use recent observations as a wedge between climate 'believers' and 'deniers' is likely to be counterproductive. Examples are drawn from Congressional testimony and media stories. All three cases illustrate ways that decision
Okubo, Sho; Nakayama, Hirotaka; Iwakuni, Kana; Inaba, Hajime; Sasada, Hiroyuki
2011-11-21
We determine the absolute frequencies of 56 rotation-vibration transitions of the ν(3) band of CH(4) from 88.2 to 90.5 THz with a typical uncertainty of 2 kHz corresponding to a relative uncertainty of 2.2 × 10(-11) over an average time of a few hundred seconds. Saturated absorption lines are observed using a difference-frequency-generation source and a cavity-enhanced absorption cell, and the transition frequencies are measured with a fiber-laser-based optical frequency comb referenced to a rubidium atomic clock linked to the international atomic time. The determined value of the P(7) F(2)((2)) line is consistent with the International Committee for Weights and Measures recommendation within the uncertainty. © 2011 Optical Society of America
IgG4 related sclerosing mastitis: expanding the morphological spectrum of IgG4 related diseases.
Chougule, Abhijit; Bal, Amanjit; Das, Ashim; Singh, Gurpreet
2015-01-01
IgG4 related disease (IgG4RD) is a recently recognised condition characterised by mass forming lesions associated with storiform fibrosis, obliterative phlebitis, lymphoplasmacytic infiltrate rich in IgG4 positive plasma cells and elevated serum IgG4 levels. Although rare, mammary involvement has been reported as IgG4 related sclerosing mastitis, the morphological counterpart of a growing family of IgG4 related diseases. A total of 17 cases belonging to mass forming benign inflammatory breast lesions such as plasma cell mastitis, granulomatous lobular mastitis, non-specific mastitis and inflammatory pseudotumour were investigated as a possible member of IgG4 related sclerosing mastitis. Clinical, radiological, histopathological and immunohistochemistry findings were noted in all cases. Cases diagnosed as inflammatory pseudotumour showed all the histopathological features of IgG4RD along with increased number of IgG4 positive plasma cells and IgG4/IgG ratio >40%. However, only a few IgG4 positive cells were seen in plasma cell mastitis, granulomatous lobular mastitis and non-specific mastitis cases. These cases also did not fulfill the morphological criteria for the diagnosis of IgG4 related diseases. IgG4RD should be excluded in plasma cell rich lesions diagnosed on core biopsies by IgG4 immunostaining. This can avoid unnecessary surgery as IgG4 related diseases respond to simple and effective steroid treatment.
The Evolution of Classroom Physics Knowledge in Relation to Certainty and Uncertainty
Tiberghien, Andrée; Cross, David; Sensevy, Gérard
2014-01-01
This paper deals with the joint construction of knowledge by the teacher and the students in a physics classroom. It is focused on the status of epistemic certainty/uncertainty of knowledge. The same element of knowledge can be introduced as possible and thus uncertain and then evolve towards a status of epistemic certainty; the status of other…
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lundgaard Andersen, Linda; Soldz, Stephen
2012-01-01
A major theme in recent psychoanalytic thinking concerns the use of therapist subjectivity, especially “countertransference,” in understanding patients. This thinking converges with and expands developments in qualitative research regarding the use of researcher subjectivity as a tool......-Saxon and continental traditions, this special issue provides examples of the use of researcher subjectivity, informed by psychoanalytic thinking, in expanding research understanding....
Regeneration decisions in forestry under climate change related uncertainties and risks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schou, Erik; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl
2015-01-01
) assigned to each outcome. Results show that the later a forest manager expects to obtain certainty about climate change or the more skewed their belief distribution, the more will decisions be based on ex ante assessments — suggesting that if forest managers believe that climate change uncertainty......Future climate development and its effects on forest ecosystems are not easily predicted or described in terms of standard probability concepts. Nevertheless, forest managers continuously make long-term decisions that will be subject to climate change impacts. The manager's assessment of possible...... to generate a set of alternative outcomes, investigating effects on decision making of three aspects of uncertainty: (i) the perceived time horizon before there will be certainty on outcome, (ii) the spread of impacts across the set of alternative outcomes, and (iii) the subjective probability (belief...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
George Maldonado
2009-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract: In a follow-up study of mortality among North American synthetic rubber industry workers, cumulative exposure to 1,3-butadiene was positively associated with leukemia. Problems with historical exposure estimation, however, may have distorted the association. To evaluate the impact of potential inaccuracies in exposure estimation, we conducted uncertainty analyses of the relation between cumulative exposure to butadiene and leukemia. We created the 1,000 sets of butadiene estimates using job-exposure matrices consisting of exposure values that corresponded to randomly selected percentiles of the approximate probability distribution of plant-, work area/job group-, and year specific butadiene ppm. We then analyzed the relation between cumulative exposure to butadiene and leukemia for each of the 1,000 sets of butadiene estimates. In the uncertainty analysis, the point estimate of the RR for the first non zero exposure category (>0–<37.5 ppm-years was most likely to be about 1.5. The rate ratio for the second exposure category (37.5–<184.7 ppm-years was most likely to range from 1.5 to 1.8. The RR for category 3 of exposure (184.7–<425.0 ppm-years was most likely between 2.1 and 3.0. The RR for the highest exposure category (425.0+ ppm-years was likely to be between 2.9 and 3.7. This range off RR point estimates can best be interpreted as a probability distribution that describes our uncertainty in RR point estimates due to uncertainty in exposure estimation. After considering the complete probability distributions of butadiene exposure estimates, the exposure-response association of butadiene and leukemia was maintained. This exercise was a unique example of how uncertainty analyses can be used to investigate and support an observed measure of effect when occupational exposure estimates are employed in the absence of direct exposure measurements.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sakai, Ryutaro; Munakata, Masahiro; Ohoka, Masao; Kameya, Hiroshi
2009-11-01
In the safety assessment for a geological disposal of radioactive waste, it is important to develop a methodology for long-term estimation of regional groundwater flow from data acquisition to numerical analyses. In the uncertainties associated with estimation of regional groundwater flow, there are the one that concerns parameters and the one that concerns the hydrologeological evolution. The uncertainties of parameters include measurement errors and their heterogeneity. The authors discussed the uncertainties of hydraulic conductivity as a significant parameter for regional groundwater flow analysis. This study suggests that hydraulic conductivities of rock mass are controlled by rock characteristics such as fractures, porosity and test conditions such as hydraulic gradient, water quality, water temperature and that there exists variations more than ten times in hydraulic conductivity by difference due to test conditions such as hydraulic gradient or due to rock type variations such as rock fractures, porosity. In addition this study demonstrated that confining pressure change caused by uplift and subsidence and change of hydraulic gradient under the long-term evolution of hydrogeological environment could possibly produce variations more than ten times of magnitude in hydraulic conductivity. It was also shown that the effect of water quality change on hydraulic conductivity was not negligible and that the replacement of fresh water and saline water caused by sea level change could induce 0.6 times in current hydraulic conductivities in case of Horonobe site. (author)
ExpandED Options: Learning beyond High School Walls
ExpandED Schools, 2014
2014-01-01
Through ExpandED Options by TASC, New York City high school students get academic credit for learning career-related skills that lead to paid summer jobs. Too many high school students--including those most likely to drop out--are bored or see classroom learning as irrelevant. ExpandED Options students live the connection between mastering new…
Astronomical Pacing of Relative Sea Level through OAE2 from the Expanded SH#1 Core, Southern Utah
Jones, M. M.; Sageman, B. B.; Oakes, R. L.; Bralower, T. J.; Parker, A. L.; Leckie, R. M.
2017-12-01
Proximal marine strata of the North American Western Interior Basin (WIB) preserve a rich record of faunal turnover linked to Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2 - 94 Ma), a pronounced Late Cretaceous carbon cycle perturbation interpreted to reflect global warming and possible ocean acidification. To develop a more robust synthesis of paleobiologic and geochemical datasets spanning this major Earth-life transition, we drilled a 131-meter core (SH#1) on the Kaiparowits Plateau of southern Utah, recovering the Cenomanian-Turonian Boundary (CTB) interval of the Tropic Shale. A 17.5-meter positive excursion in high-resolution bulk carbon isotope chemostratigraphy (δ13Corg) of SH#1 characterizes the most expanded and detailed record of OAE2 recovered from the WIB. Additionally, we detect statistically significant evidence for astronomical cycles in a companion δ13Ccarb dataset, using advanced spectral techniques (evolutive average spectral misfit). Bandpass filtering and tracing of the short eccentricity cycle (97 ka) permit development of a floating astronomical time scale (ATS) for the CTB interval. The presence of radioisotopic dates within the time series provides an independent check on astrochronologic interpretations. We attribute some depleted δ13Ccarb values in SH#1, which cyclically punctuate the OAE2 excursion, to preferential carbonate diagenesis driven by periodic sea level oscillations. Accordingly, major flooding surfaces in SH#1 correlate well to an existing sequence stratigraphic framework from shoreface facies of the Markagunt Plateau ( 100 km west). Comparing the ATS and sequence stratigraphic surfaces in SH#1, we observe that stable eccentricity cycles (405 ka) pace stratigraphic sequences and associated saw-toothed trends in sedimentation rate estimates through OAE2. Furthermore, short eccentricity cycles pace nested parasequences. These results confirm astronomical and, therefore, climatic pacing of relative sea level trends during OAE2 in the WIB. The
Uncertainty in the area-related QPF for heavy convective precipitation
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Řezáčová, Daniela; Zacharov, Petr, jr.; Sokol, Zbyněk
2009-01-01
Roč. 93, 1-3 (2009), s. 238-246 ISSN 0169-8095. [European Conference on Severe Storms /4./. Miramare -Trieste, 10.09.2007-14.09.2007] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/07/0905; GA MŠk OC 112 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Convective storm * Quantitative precipitation forecast * Uncertainty in precipitation forecasting * Ensemble forecasting * Numerical weather prediction model Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.811, year: 2009 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01698095
High-voltage measurements on the 5 ppm relative uncertainty level with collinear laser spectroscopy
Krämer, J.; König, K.; Geppert, Ch; Imgram, P.; Maaß, B.; Meisner, J.; Otten, E. W.; Passon, S.; Ratajczyk, T.; Ullmann, J.; Nörtershäuser, W.
2018-04-01
We present the results of high-voltage collinear laser spectroscopy measurements on the 5 ppm relative uncertainty level using a pump and probe scheme at the 4s ^2S1/2 → 4p ^2P3/2 transition of {\\hspace{0pt}}40Ca+ involving the 3d ^2D5/2 metastable state. With two-stage laser interaction and a reference measurement we can eliminate systematic effects such as differences in the contact potentials due to different electrode materials and thermoelectric voltages, and the unknown starting potential of the ions in the ion source. Voltage measurements were performed between -5 kV and -19 kV and parallel measurements with stable high-voltage dividers calibrated to 5 ppm relative uncertainty were used as a reference. Our measurements are compatible with the uncertainty limits of the high-voltage dividers and demonstrate an unprecedented (factor of 20) increase in the precision of direct laser-based high-voltage measurements.
New entropic uncertainty relations and tests of PMD-SQS-optimal limits in pion-nucleus scattering
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ion, D.B.; Ion, M.L.
2002-01-01
In this paper we define a new kind of quantum entropy, namely, the nonextensivity conjugated entropy S Jθ (p,q) bar.Then we prove the optimal nonextensivity conjugated entropic uncertainty relations (ONC-EUR) as well as optimal nonextensivity conjugated entropic uncertainty bands (ONC E UB). The results of the first experimental test of ONC-EUB in the pion-nucleus scattering, obtained by using 49-sets of experimental phase shift analysis, are presented. So, strong evidences for the saturation of the PMD-SQS-optimum limit are obtained with high accuracy (confidence level > 99%) for the nonextensivities: 1/2 ≤ p ≤ 2/3 and q = p/(2p-1). (authors)
Post, W. M.; Dale, V. H.; DeAngelis, D. L.; Mann, L. K.; Mulholland, P. J.; O`Neill, R. V.; Peng, T. -H.; Farrell, M. P.
1990-02-01
The global carbon cycle is the dynamic interaction among the earth's carbon sources and sinks. Four reservoirs can be identified, including the atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, oceans, and sediments. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is determined by characteristics of carbon fluxes among major reservoirs of the global carbon cycle. The objective of this paper is to document the knowns, and unknowns and uncertainties associated with key questions that if answered will increase the understanding of the portion of past, present, and future atmospheric CO{sub 2} attributable to fossil fuel burning. Documented atmospheric increases in CO{sub 2} levels are thought to result primarily from fossil fuel use and, perhaps, deforestation. However, the observed atmospheric CO{sub 2} increase is less than expected from current understanding of the global carbon cycle because of poorly understood interactions among the major carbon reservoirs.
Radon contents in groundwater and the uncertainty related to risk assessment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fukui, Masami [Kyoto Univ. (Japan)
1997-02-01
The United States has proposed 11 Bq/l (300 pCi/l) as the maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) of radon. Japan has not set up the standards for drinking water. The problems about evaluation of effects of radon on organism and MCLs of radon in groundwater and drinking water in 12 countries were reported. The local area content the high concentrations of radon, but generally it`s low levels were observed in Nigeria, China and Mexico. The countries which content high concentration of radon were Greek, Slovakia, Bornholm Island and Scotland. There are high and low concentration area in US and Japan. I proposed an uncertainty scheme on risk assessment for the exposure by radon. (S.Y.)
Fox, Jesse; Anderegg, Courtney
2014-11-01
Due to their pervasiveness and unique affordances, social media play a distinct role in the development of modern romantic relationships. This study examines how a social networking site is used for information seeking about a potential or current romantic partner. In a survey, Facebook users (N=517) were presented with Facebook behaviors categorized as passive (e.g., reading a partner's profile), active (e.g., "friending" a common third party), or interactive (e.g., commenting on the partner's wall) uncertainty reduction strategies. Participants reported how normative they perceived these behaviors to be during four possible stages of relationship development (before meeting face-to-face, after meeting face-to-face, casual dating, and exclusive dating). Results indicated that as relationships progress, perceived norms for these behaviors change. Sex differences were also observed, as women perceived passive and interactive strategies as more normative than men during certain relationship stages.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mélanie Trudel
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Low-flow is the flow of water in a river during prolonged dry weather. This paper investigated the uncertainty originating from hydrological model calibration and structure in low-flow simulations under climate change conditions. Two hydrological models of contrasting complexity, GR4J and SWAT, were applied to four sub-watersheds of the Yamaska River, Canada. The two models were calibrated using seven different objective functions including the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSEQ and six other objective functions more related to low flows. The uncertainty in the model parameters was evaluated using a PARAmeter SOLutions procedure (PARASOL. Twelve climate projections from different combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs and Regional Circulation Models (RCMs were used to simulate low-flow indices in a reference (1970–2000 and future (2040–2070 horizon. Results indicate that the NSEQ objective function does not properly represent low-flow indices for either model. The NSE objective function applied to the log of the flows shows the lowest total variance for all sub-watersheds. In addition, these hydrological models should be used with care for low-flow studies, since they both show some inconsistent results. The uncertainty is higher for SWAT than for GR4J. With GR4J, the uncertainties in the simulations for the 7Q2 index (the 7-day low-flow value with a 2-year return period are lower for the future period than for the reference period. This can be explained by the analysis of hydrological processes. In the future horizon, a significant worsening of low-flow conditions was projected.
Duffy, P.; Keller, M. M.; Morton, D. C.
2016-12-01
Carbon accounting for REDD+ requires knowledge of deforestation, degradation, and associated changes in forest carbon stocks. Degradation is more difficult to detect than deforestation so SilvaCarbon, an US inter-agency effort, has set a priority to better characterize forest degradation effects on carbon loss. By combining information from forest inventory and lidar data products, impacts of deforestation, degradation, and associated changes in forest carbon stocks can be more accurately characterized across space. Our approach employs a hierarchical Bayesian modeling (HBM) framework where the assimilation of information from multiple sources is accomplished using a change of support (COS) technique. The COS formulation allows data from multiple spatial resolutions to be assimilated into an intermediate resolution. This approach is being applied in Paragominas, a jurisdiction in the eastern Brazilian Amazon with a high proportion of logged and burned degraded forests where political change has opened the way for REDD+. We build on a long history of research including our extensive studies of logging damage. Our primary objective is to quantify above-ground carbon stocks and corresponding uncertainty in a spatially explicit manner. A secondary objective is to quantify the relative contribution of lower level data products to the overall uncertainty, allowing for more focused subsequent data collection in the context of uncertainty reduction. This approach provides a mechanism to assimilate information from multiple sources to produce spatially-explicit maps of carbon stocks and changes with corresponding spatially explicit maps of uncertainty. Importantly, this approach also provides a mechanism that can be used to assess the value of information from specific data products.
Clonally expanded cytotoxic CD4+ T cells and the pathogenesis of IgG4-related disease.
Mattoo, Hamid; Stone, John H; Pillai, Shiv
2017-02-01
IgG4-related disease (IgG4-RD) is a systemic condition of unknown cause characterized by highly fibrotic lesions, with dense lymphoplasmacytic infiltrates containing a preponderance of IgG4-expressing plasma cells. CD4 + T cells and B cells constitute the major inflammatory cell populations in IgG4-RD lesions. IgG4-RD patients with active, untreated disease show a marked expansion of plasmablasts in the circulation. Although the therapeutic depletion of B cells suggests a role for these cells in the disease, a direct role for B cells or IgG4 in the pathogenesis of IgG4-RD is yet to be demonstrated. Among the CD4 + T-cell subsets, Th2 cells were initially thought to contribute to IgG4-RD pathogenesis, but many previous studies were confounded by the concomitant history of allergic diseases in the patients studied and the failure to use multi-color staining to definitively identify T-cell subsets in tissue samples. More recently, using an unbiased approach to characterize CD4 + T-cell subsets in patients with IgG4-RD - based on their clonal expansion and ability to infiltrate affected tissue sites - CD4 + CTLs have been identified as the major CD4 + T-cell subset in disease lesions as well as in the circulation. CD4 + CTLs in affected tissues secrete pro-fibrotic cytokines including IL-1β, TGF-β1, and IFN-γ as well as cytolytic molecules such as perforin and granzymes A and B. In this review, we examine possible mechanisms by which activated B cells and plasmablasts may collaborate with the expanded CD4 + CTLs in driving the fibrotic pathology of the disease and describe the lacunae in the field and in our understanding of IgG4-RD pathogenesis.
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 10; Issue 1. Expander Codes - The Sipser–Spielman Construction. Priti Shankar. General Article Volume 10 ... Author Affiliations. Priti Shankar1. Department of Computer Science and Automation, Indian Institute of Science Bangalore 560 012, India.
Sanchez-Vila, X.; de Barros, F.; Bolster, D.; Nowak, W.
2010-12-01
Assessing the potential risk of hydro(geo)logical supply systems to human population is an interdisciplinary field. It relies on the expertise in fields as distant as hydrogeology, medicine, or anthropology, and needs powerful translation concepts to provide decision support and policy making. Reliable health risk estimates need to account for the uncertainties in hydrological, physiological and human behavioral parameters. We propose the use of fault trees to address the task of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) and to support related management decisions. Fault trees allow decomposing the assessment of health risk into individual manageable modules, thus tackling a complex system by a structural “Divide and Conquer” approach. The complexity within each module can be chosen individually according to data availability, parsimony, relative importance and stage of analysis. The separation in modules allows for a true inter- and multi-disciplinary approach. This presentation highlights the three novel features of our work: (1) we define failure in terms of risk being above a threshold value, whereas previous studies used auxiliary events such as exceedance of critical concentration levels, (2) we plot an integrated fault tree that handles uncertainty in both hydrological and health components in a unified way, and (3) we introduce a new form of stochastic fault tree that allows to weaken the assumption of independent subsystems that is required by a classical fault tree approach. We illustrate our concept in a simple groundwater-related setting.
Bosma, L.V.A.E.; Kragt, J.J.; Polman, C.H.; Uitdehaag, B.M.J.
2013-01-01
Objective: To study the relationships between 1-2 year changes in well-known physician-rated measurements (Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), Timed 25-Foot Walk (T25FW), 9-Hole Peg Test (9HPT)) and the long-term (= 5 years) outcome in patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures (Multiple Sclerosis
Uncertainty quantification for hyperbolic and kinetic equations
Pareschi, Lorenzo
2017-01-01
This book explores recent advances in uncertainty quantification for hyperbolic, kinetic, and related problems. The contributions address a range of different aspects, including: polynomial chaos expansions, perturbation methods, multi-level Monte Carlo methods, importance sampling, and moment methods. The interest in these topics is rapidly growing, as their applications have now expanded to many areas in engineering, physics, biology and the social sciences. Accordingly, the book provides the scientific community with a topical overview of the latest research efforts.
Impacts of Korea's Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kwon Sik Kim
2003-12-01
Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of two types of uncertainty related to the real effective exchange rate (REER in Korea for export trends. To decompose uncertainties into two types of component, I propose an advanced generalized Markov switching model, as developed by Hamilton (1989 and then expanded by Kim and Kim (1996. The proposed model is useful in uncovering two sources of uncertainty: the permanent component of REER and the purely transitory component. I think that the two types of uncertainties have a different effect on export trends in Korea. The transitory component of REER has no effect on the export trend at 5-percent significance, but the permanent component has an effect at this level. In addition, the degree of uncertainty, consisting of low, medium and high uncertainty in the permanent component, and low, medium and high uncertainty in transitory component of REER, also has different effects on export trends in Korea. Only high uncertainty in permanent components effects export trends. The results show that when the policy authority intends to prevent the shrinkage of exports due to the deepening of uncertainties in the foreign exchange market, the economic impacts of its intervention could appear differently according to the characteristics and degree of the uncertainties. Therefore, they imply that its economic measures, which could not grasp the sources of uncertainties properly, may even bring economic costs.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zou, Hong-Mei; Fang, Mao-Fa; Yang, Bai-Yuan; Guo, You-Neng; He, Wei; Zhang, Shi-Yang
2014-01-01
The quantum entropic uncertainty relation and entanglement witness in the two-atom system coupling with the non-Markovian environments are studied using the time-convolutionless master-equation approach. The influence of the non-Markovian effect and detuning on the lower bound of the quantum entropic uncertainty relation and entanglement witness is discussed in detail. The results show that, only if the two non-Markovian reservoirs are identical, increasing detuning and non-Markovian effect can reduce the lower bound of the entropic uncertainty relation, lengthen the time region during which the entanglement can be witnessed, and effectively protect the entanglement region witnessed by the lower bound of the entropic uncertainty relation. The results can be applied in quantum measurement, quantum cryptography tasks and quantum information processing. (paper)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kleist David
2018-04-01
Full Text Available The Multilateral Convention to Implement Tax Treaty Related Measures to Prevent Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (MLI, which was signed in June 2017, raises a multitude of questions relating not only to the text of the treaty provisions but also to the way the MLI will interact with tax treaties, for instance, and what it will mean for the future development of tax treaty law and international cooperation in tax matters. This article focuses on two aspects of the MLI. First, it deals with the substance of the MLI by providing an overview of its background and content, including the many options available to the contracting states under the MLI. Second, some thoughts are presented on the effects of the MLI in terms of complexity and uncertainty.
The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.
1994-01-01
All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties
Uncertainties in downscaled relative humidity for a semi-arid region ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
variables are extracted from the (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction ... and (2) simulations of the third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate ... Ef, MAE and P. Cumulative distribution functions were prepared from the ... Climate change; downscaling; hydroclimatology; relative humidity; multi-step linear ...
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Gavinsky, Dmitry; Pudlák, Pavel
2017-01-01
Roč. 60, č. 3 (2017), s. 378-395 ISSN 1432-4350 R&D Projects: GA ČR GBP202/12/G061 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : expanders * pseudorandomness * communication complexity Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8) Impact factor: 0.645, year: 2016 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00224-016-9738-5
Loth, K A; Friend, S; Horning, M L; Neumark-Sztainer, D; Fulkerson, J A
2016-12-01
This study examines associations between an expanded conceptualization of food-related parenting practices, specifically, directive and non-directive control, and child weight (BMI z-score) and dietary outcomes [Healthy Eating Index (HEI) 2010, daily servings fruits/vegetables] within a sample of parent-child dyads (8-12 years old; n = 160). Baseline data from the Healthy Home Offerings via the Mealtime Environment (HOME Plus) randomized controlled trial was used to test associations between directive and non-directive control and child dietary outcomes and weight using multiple regression analyses adjusted for parental education. Overall variance explained by directive and non-directive control constructs was also calculated. Markers of directive control included pressure-to-eat and food restriction, assessed using subscales from the Child Feeding Questionnaire; markers of non-directive control were assessed with a parental role modeling scale and a home food availability inventory in which an obesogenic home food environment score was assigned based on the types and number of unhealthful foods available within the child's home food environment. Food restriction and pressure-to-eat were positively and negatively associated with BMI z-scores, respectively, but not with dietary outcomes. An obesogenic home food environment was inversely associated with both dietary outcomes; parental role modeling of healthful eating was positively associated with both dietary outcomes. Neither non-directive behavioral construct was significantly associated with BMI z-scores. Greater total variance in BMI-z was explained by directive control; greater total variance in dietary outcomes was explained by non-directive control. Including a construct of food-related parenting practices with separate markers for directive and non-directive control should be considered for future research. These concepts address different forms of parental control and, in the present study, yielded
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Molotkov, S. N., E-mail: sergei.molotkov@gmail.com [Russian Federation, Academy of Cryptography (Russian Federation)
2012-12-15
Any key-generation session contains a finite number of quantum-state messages, and it is there-fore important to understand the fundamental restrictions imposed on the minimal length of a string required to obtain a secret key with a specified length. The entropy uncertainty relations for smooth min and max entropies considerably simplify and shorten the proof of security. A proof of security of quantum key distribution with phase-temporal encryption is presented. This protocol provides the maximum critical error compared to other protocols up to which secure key distribution is guaranteed. In addition, unlike other basic protocols (of the BB84 type), which are vulnerable with respect to an attack by 'blinding' of avalanche photodetectors, this protocol is stable with respect to such an attack and guarantees key security.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Molotkov, S. N.
2012-01-01
Any key-generation session contains a finite number of quantum-state messages, and it is there-fore important to understand the fundamental restrictions imposed on the minimal length of a string required to obtain a secret key with a specified length. The entropy uncertainty relations for smooth min and max entropies considerably simplify and shorten the proof of security. A proof of security of quantum key distribution with phase-temporal encryption is presented. This protocol provides the maximum critical error compared to other protocols up to which secure key distribution is guaranteed. In addition, unlike other basic protocols (of the BB84 type), which are vulnerable with respect to an attack by “blinding” of avalanche photodetectors, this protocol is stable with respect to such an attack and guarantees key security.
Bonk, Mario
2017-01-01
This monograph is devoted to the study of the dynamics of expanding Thurston maps under iteration. A Thurston map is a branched covering map on a two-dimensional topological sphere such that each critical point of the map has a finite orbit under iteration. It is called expanding if, roughly speaking, preimages of a fine open cover of the underlying sphere under iterates of the map become finer and finer as the order of the iterate increases. Every expanding Thurston map gives rise to a fractal space, called its visual sphere. Many dynamical properties of the map are encoded in the geometry of this visual sphere. For example, an expanding Thurston map is topologically conjugate to a rational map if and only if its visual sphere is quasisymmetrically equivalent to the Riemann sphere. This relation between dynamics and fractal geometry is the main focus for the investigations in this work.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Masahito, Hayashi [ERATO, Quantum Computation and Information Project, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Tokyo (Japan); Reynaud, S. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Lab. Kastler Brossel, 75 - Paris (France); Jaekel, M.Th. [Ecole Nationale Superieure de Chimie, Lab. de Physique Theorique 75 - Paris (France); Fiuraaek, J. [Palacky Univ., Dept. of Optics (Czech Republic); Garcia-Patron, R.; Cerf, N.J. [QUIC, Ecole Polytechnique, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels (Belgium); Hage, B.; Chelkowski, S.; Franzen, A.; Lastzka, N.; Vahlbruch, N.; Danzmann, K.; Schnabel, R. [Hannover Univ., Institut Faur Atom- und Molekaulphysik, Max-Planck-Institut, Gravitationsphysik (Albert-Einstein-Institut) (Germany); Hassan, S.S. [Bahrain Univ., Dept. of Mathematics, College of Science (Bahrain); Joshi, A. [Arkansas, Univ., Dept. of Physics, Fayetteville, AR (United States); Jakob, M. [ARC Seibersdorf Research GmbH (ARCS), Tech Gate Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Bergou, J.A. [New York City Univ., Dept. of Physics, Hunter College, NY (United States); Kozlovskii, A.V. [P.N.Lebedev Physical Institute, Moscow (Russian Federation); Prakash, H. [Allahabad Univ., Dept. of Physics (India)]|[Allahabad Univ., M. N. Saha Centre of Space Studies, Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies (India); Kumar, R. [Allahabad Univ., Dept. of Physics (India)]|[Udai Pratap Autonomous College (India)
2005-07-01
The purpose of the conference was to bring together people working in the field of quantum optics, with special emphasis on non-classical light sources and related areas, quantum computing, statistical mechanics and mathematical physics. As a novelty, this edition will include the topics of quantum imaging, quantum phase noise and number theory in quantum mechanics. This document gives the program of the conference and gathers the abstracts.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Masahito, Hayashi [ERATO, Quantum Computation and Information Project, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Tokyo (Japan); Reynaud, S [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Lab. Kastler Brossel, 75 - Paris (France); Jaekel, M Th [Ecole Nationale Superieure de Chimie, Lab. de Physique Theorique 75 - Paris (France); Fiuraaek, J [Palacky Univ., Dept. of Optics (Czech Republic); Garcia-Patron, R; Cerf, N J [QUIC, Ecole Polytechnique, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels (Belgium); Hage, B; Chelkowski, S; Franzen, A; Lastzka, N; Vahlbruch, N; Danzmann, K; Schnabel, R [Hannover Univ., Institut Faur Atom- und Molekaulphysik, Max-Planck-Institut, Gravitationsphysik (Albert-Einstein-Institut) (Germany); Hassan, S S [Bahrain Univ., Dept. of Mathematics, College of Science (Bahrain); Joshi, A [Arkansas, Univ., Dept. of Physics, Fayetteville, AR (United States); Jakob, M [ARC Seibersdorf Research GmbH (ARCS), Tech Gate Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Bergou, J A [New York City Univ., Dept. of Physics, Hunter College, NY (United States); Kozlovskii, A V [P.N.Lebedev Physical Institute, Moscow (Russian Federation); Prakash, H [Allahabad Univ., Dept. of Physics (India); [Allahabad Univ., M. N. Saha Centre of Space Studies, Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies (India); Kumar, R [Allahabad Univ., Dept. of Physics (India); [Udai Pratap Autonomous College (India)
2005-07-01
The purpose of the conference was to bring together people working in the field of quantum optics, with special emphasis on non-classical light sources and related areas, quantum computing, statistical mechanics and mathematical physics. As a novelty, this edition will include the topics of quantum imaging, quantum phase noise and number theory in quantum mechanics. This document gives the program of the conference and gathers the abstracts.
Chen, Xing; Zhang, Xing
2016-01-01
Despite the importance of adoption of mobile health services by an organization on the diffusion of mobile technology in the big data era, it has received minimal attention in literature. This study investigates how relative advantage and perceived credibility affect an organization's adoption of mobile health services, as well as how environmental uncertainty changes the relationship of relative advantage and perceived credibility with adoption. A research model that integrates relative advantage, perceived credibility, environmental uncertainty, and an organization's intention to use mobile health service is developed. Quantitative data are collected from senior managers and information systems managers in 320 Chinese healthcare organizations. The empirical findings show that while relative advantage and perceived credibility both have positive effects on an organization's intention to use mobile health services, relative advantage plays a more important role than perceived credibility. Moreover, environmental uncertainty positively moderates the effect of relative advantage on an organization's adoption of mobile health services. Thus, mobile health services in environments characterized with high levels of uncertainty are more likely to be adopted because of relative advantage than in environments with low levels of uncertainty.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xing Chen
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Despite the importance of adoption of mobile health services by an organization on the diffusion of mobile technology in the big data era, it has received minimal attention in literature. This study investigates how relative advantage and perceived credibility affect an organization’s adoption of mobile health services, as well as how environmental uncertainty changes the relationship of relative advantage and perceived credibility with adoption. A research model that integrates relative advantage, perceived credibility, environmental uncertainty, and an organization’s intention to use mobile health service is developed. Quantitative data are collected from senior managers and information systems managers in 320 Chinese healthcare organizations. The empirical findings show that while relative advantage and perceived credibility both have positive effects on an organization’s intention to use mobile health services, relative advantage plays a more important role than perceived credibility. Moreover, environmental uncertainty positively moderates the effect of relative advantage on an organization’s adoption of mobile health services. Thus, mobile health services in environments characterized with high levels of uncertainty are more likely to be adopted because of relative advantage than in environments with low levels of uncertainty.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lo Bianco, A.S.; Oliveira, H.P.S.; Peixoto, J.G.P.
2009-01-01
To implant the primary standard of the magnitude kerma in the air for X-ray between 10 - 50 keV, the National Metrology Laboratory of Ionizing Radiations (LNMRI) must evaluate all the uncertainties of measurement related with Victtoren chamber. So, it was evaluated the uncertainty of the kerma in the air consequent of the inaccuracy in the active volume of the chamber using the calculation of Monte Carlo as a tool through the Penelope software
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fontenot, Jonas D; Bloch, Charles; Followill, David; Titt, Uwe; Newhauser, Wayne D
2010-01-01
Theoretical calculations have shown that proton therapy can reduce the incidence of radiation-induced secondary malignant neoplasms (SMN) compared with photon therapy for patients with prostate cancer. However, the uncertainties associated with calculations of SMN risk had not been assessed. The objective of this study was to quantify the uncertainties in projected risks of secondary cancer following contemporary proton and photon radiotherapies for prostate cancer. We performed a rigorous propagation of errors and several sensitivity tests to estimate the uncertainty in the ratio of relative risk (RRR) due to the largest contributors to the uncertainty: the radiation weighting factor for neutrons, the dose-response model for radiation carcinogenesis and interpatient variations in absorbed dose. The interval of values for the radiation weighting factor for neutrons and the dose-response model were derived from the literature, while interpatient variations in absorbed dose were taken from actual patient data. The influence of each parameter on a baseline RRR value was quantified. Our analysis revealed that the calculated RRR was insensitive to the largest contributors to the uncertainty. Uncertainties in the radiation weighting factor for neutrons, the shape of the dose-risk model and interpatient variations in therapeutic and stray doses introduced a total uncertainty of 33% to the baseline RRR calculation.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hukkerikar, Amol; Kalakul, Sawitree; Sarup, Bent
2012-01-01
The aim of this work is to develop group-3 contribution+ (GC+)method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI)) based 15 property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncertainties of estimated...... property values. For this purpose, a systematic methodology for property modeling and uncertainty analysis is used. The methodology includes a parameter estimation step to determine parameters of property models and an uncertainty analysis step to establish statistical information about the quality......, poly functional chemicals, etc.) taken from the database of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and from the database of USEtox is used. For property modeling and uncertainty analysis, the Marrero and Gani GC method and atom connectivity index method have been considered. In total, 22...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thomas, R.E.
1982-03-01
An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software
Lindley, Dennis V
2013-01-01
Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.
Yang, Ming; Zhu, X. Ronald; Park, Peter C.; Titt, Uwe; Mohan, Radhe; Virshup, Gary; Clayton, James E.; Dong, Lei
2012-07-01
The purpose of this study was to analyze factors affecting proton stopping-power-ratio (SPR) estimations and range uncertainties in proton therapy planning using the standard stoichiometric calibration. The SPR uncertainties were grouped into five categories according to their origins and then estimated based on previously published reports or measurements. For the first time, the impact of tissue composition variations on SPR estimation was assessed and the uncertainty estimates of each category were determined for low-density (lung), soft, and high-density (bone) tissues. A composite, 95th percentile water-equivalent-thickness uncertainty was calculated from multiple beam directions in 15 patients with various types of cancer undergoing proton therapy. The SPR uncertainties (1σ) were quite different (ranging from 1.6% to 5.0%) in different tissue groups, although the final combined uncertainty (95th percentile) for different treatment sites was fairly consistent at 3.0-3.4%, primarily because soft tissue is the dominant tissue type in the human body. The dominant contributing factor for uncertainties in soft tissues was the degeneracy of Hounsfield numbers in the presence of tissue composition variations. To reduce the overall uncertainties in SPR estimation, the use of dual-energy computed tomography is suggested. The values recommended in this study based on typical treatment sites and a small group of patients roughly agree with the commonly referenced value (3.5%) used for margin design. By using tissue-specific range uncertainties, one could estimate the beam-specific range margin by accounting for different types and amounts of tissues along a beam, which may allow for customization of range uncertainty for each beam direction.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Al-Hashimi, M.H.; Wiese, U.-J.
2012-01-01
We consider a 1-parameter family of self-adjoint extensions of the Hamiltonian for a particle confined to a finite interval with perfectly reflecting boundary conditions. In some cases, one obtains negative energy states which seem to violate the Heisenberg uncertainty relation. We use this as a motivation to derive a generalized uncertainty relation valid for an arbitrarily shaped quantum dot with general perfectly reflecting walls in d dimensions. In addition, a general uncertainty relation for non-Hermitian operators is derived and applied to the non-Hermitian momentum operator in a quantum dot. We also consider minimal uncertainty wave packets in this situation, and we prove that the spectrum depends monotonically on the self-adjoint extension parameter. In addition, we construct the most general boundary conditions for semiconductor heterostructures such as quantum dots, quantum wires, and quantum wells, which are characterized by a 4-parameter family of self-adjoint extensions. Finally, we consider perfectly reflecting boundary conditions for relativistic fermions confined to a finite volume or localized on a domain wall, which are characterized by a 1-parameter family of self-adjoint extensions in the (1+1)-d and (2+1)-d cases, and by a 4-parameter family in the (3+1)-d and (4+1)-d cases. - Highlights: ► Finite volume Heisenberg uncertainty relation. ► General self-adjoint extensions for relativistic fermions. ► New prospective for the problem of particle in a box.
Conditional uncertainty principle
Gour, Gilad; Grudka, Andrzej; Horodecki, Michał; Kłobus, Waldemar; Łodyga, Justyna; Narasimhachar, Varun
2018-04-01
We develop a general operational framework that formalizes the concept of conditional uncertainty in a measure-independent fashion. Our formalism is built upon a mathematical relation which we call conditional majorization. We define conditional majorization and, for the case of classical memory, we provide its thorough characterization in terms of monotones, i.e., functions that preserve the partial order under conditional majorization. We demonstrate the application of this framework by deriving two types of memory-assisted uncertainty relations, (1) a monotone-based conditional uncertainty relation and (2) a universal measure-independent conditional uncertainty relation, both of which set a lower bound on the minimal uncertainty that Bob has about Alice's pair of incompatible measurements, conditioned on arbitrary measurement that Bob makes on his own system. We next compare the obtained relations with their existing entropic counterparts and find that they are at least independent.
Zhang, Zuo-Yuan; Wei, DaXiu; Liu, Jin-Ming
2018-06-01
The precision of measurements for two incompatible observables in a physical system can be improved with the assistance of quantum memory. In this paper, we investigate the quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation for a spin-1 Heisenberg model in the presence of external magnetic fields, the systemic quantum entanglement (characterized by the negativity) is analyzed as contrast. Our results show that for the XY spin chain in thermal equilibrium, the entropic uncertainty can be reduced by reinforcing the coupling between the two particles or decreasing the temperature of the environment. At zero-temperature, the strong magnetic field can result in the growth of the entropic uncertainty. Moreover, in the Ising case, the variation trends of the uncertainty are relied on the choices of anisotropic parameters. Taking the influence of intrinsic decoherence into account, we find that the strong coupling accelerates the inflation of the uncertainty over time, whereas the high magnetic field contributes to its reduction during the temporal evolution. Furthermore, we also verify that the evolution behavior of the entropic uncertainty is roughly anti-correlated with that of the entanglement in the whole dynamical process. Our results could offer new insights into quantum precision measurement for the high spin solid-state systems.
Reid, Marianne; Botma, Yvonne
2012-06-01
The study undertook the development of a framework for expanding the public services available to children with biomedical healthcare needs related to HIV in South Africa. The study consisted of various component projects which were depicted as phases. The first phase was a descriptive quantitative analysis of healthcare services for children exposed to or infected by HIV, as rendered by the public health sector in the Free State Province. The second stage was informed by health policy research: a nominal group technique with stakeholders was used to identify strategies for expanding the healthcare services available to these children. The third phase consisted of workshops with stakeholders in order to devise and validate a framework for the expansion. The theory of change logic model served as the theoretical underpinning of the draft framework. Triangulated data from the literature and the preceding two phases of the study provided the empirical foundation. The problem identified was that of fragmented care delivered to children exposed to or infected with HIV, due to the 'over-verticalization' of programmes. A workshop was held during which the desired results, the possible factors that could influence the results, as well as the suggested strategies to expand and integrate the public services available to HIV-affected children were confirmed. Thus the framework was finalised during the validation workshop by the researchers in collaboration with the stakeholders.
Burger, Emily A; Sy, Stephen; Nygård, Mari; Kristiansen, Ivar S; Kim, Jane J
2014-01-01
Increasingly, countries have introduced female vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV), causally linked to several cancers and genital warts, but few have recommended vaccination of boys. Declining vaccine prices and strong evidence of vaccine impact on reducing HPV-related conditions in both women and men prompt countries to reevaluate whether HPV vaccination of boys is warranted. A previously-published dynamic model of HPV transmission was empirically calibrated to Norway. Reductions in the incidence of HPV, including both direct and indirect benefits, were applied to a natural history model of cervical cancer, and to incidence-based models for other non-cervical HPV-related diseases. We calculated the health outcomes and costs of the different HPV-related conditions under a gender-neutral vaccination program compared to a female-only program. Vaccine price had a decisive impact on results. For example, assuming 71% coverage, high vaccine efficacy and a reasonable vaccine tender price of $75 per dose, we found vaccinating both girls and boys fell below a commonly cited cost-effectiveness threshold in Norway ($83,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained) when including vaccine benefit for all HPV-related diseases. However, at the current market price, including boys would not be considered 'good value for money.' For settings with a lower cost-effectiveness threshold ($30,000/QALY), it would not be considered cost-effective to expand the current program to include boys, unless the vaccine price was less than $36/dose. Increasing vaccination coverage to 90% among girls was more effective and less costly than the benefits achieved by vaccinating both genders with 71% coverage. At the anticipated tender price, expanding the HPV vaccination program to boys may be cost-effective and may warrant a change in the current female-only vaccination policy in Norway. However, increasing coverage in girls is uniformly more effective and cost-effective than expanding
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Haleigh A. Boswell
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Analysis of blood alcohol concentration is a routine analysis performed in many forensic laboratories. This analysis commonly utilizes static headspace sampling, followed by gas chromatography combined with flame ionization detection (GC-FID. Studies have shown several “optimal” methods for instrumental operating conditions, which are intended to yield accurate and precise data. Given that different instruments, sampling methods, application specific columns and parameters are often utilized, it is much less common to find information on the robustness of these reported conditions. A major problem can arise when these “optimal” conditions may not also be robust, thus producing data with higher than desired uncertainty or potentially inaccurate results. The goal of this research was to incorporate the principles of quality by design (QBD in the adjustment and determination of BAC (blood alcohol concentration instrumental headspace parameters, thereby ensuring that minor instrumental variations, which occur as a matter of normal work, do not appreciably affect the final results of this analysis. This study discusses both the QBD principles as well as the results of the experiments, which allow for determination of more favorable instrumental headspace conditions. Additionally, method detection limits will also be reported in order to determine a reporting threshold and the degree of uncertainty at the common threshold value of 0.08 g/dL. Furthermore, the comparison of two internal standards, n-propanol and t-butanol, will be investigated. The study showed that an altered parameter of 85 °C headspace oven temperature and 15 psi headspace vial pressurization produces the lowest percent relative standard deviation of 1.3% when t-butanol is implemented as an internal standard, at least for one very common platform. The study also showed that an altered parameter of 100 °C headspace oven temperature and 15-psi headspace vial pressurization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sakai, K.; Hishida, H.
1978-01-01
Probabilistic fuel pin gap distributions within a wire-spaced fuel subassembly and sensitivities of the related uncertainties to fuel pin gaps are discussed. The analyses consist mainly of expressing a local fuel pin gap in terms of sensitivity functions of the related uncertainties and calculating the corresponding probabilistic distribution through taking all the possible combinations of the distribution of uncertainties. The results of illustrative calculations show that with the reliability level of 0.9987, the maximum deviation of the pin gap at the cladding hot spot of a center fuel subassembly is 8.05% from its nominal value and the corresponding probabilistic pin gap distribution is shifted to the narrower side due to the external confinement of a pin bundle with a wrapper tube. (Auth.)
Koch, Michael
Measurement uncertainty is one of the key issues in quality assurance. It became increasingly important for analytical chemistry laboratories with the accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025. The uncertainty of a measurement is the most important criterion for the decision whether a measurement result is fit for purpose. It also delivers help for the decision whether a specification limit is exceeded or not. Estimation of measurement uncertainty often is not trivial. Several strategies have been developed for this purpose that will shortly be described in this chapter. In addition the different possibilities to take into account the uncertainty in compliance assessment are explained.
Development of a Dynamic Lidar Uncertainty Framework
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Newman, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Clifton, Andrew [WindForS; Bonin, Timothy [CIRES/NOAA ESRL; Choukulkar, Aditya [CIRES/NOAA ESRL; Brewer, W. Alan [NOAA ESRL; Delgado, Ruben [University of Maryland Baltimore County
2017-08-07
As wind turbine sizes increase and wind energy expands to more complex and remote sites, remote-sensing devices such as lidars are expected to play a key role in wind resource assessment and power performance testing. The switch to remote-sensing devices represents a paradigm shift in the way the wind industry typically obtains and interprets measurement data for wind energy. For example, the measurement techniques and sources of uncertainty for a remote-sensing device are vastly different from those associated with a cup anemometer on a meteorological tower. Current IEC standards for quantifying remote sensing device uncertainty for power performance testing consider uncertainty due to mounting, calibration, and classification of the remote sensing device, among other parameters. Values of the uncertainty are typically given as a function of the mean wind speed measured by a reference device and are generally fixed, leading to climatic uncertainty values that apply to the entire measurement campaign. However, real-world experience and a consideration of the fundamentals of the measurement process have shown that lidar performance is highly dependent on atmospheric conditions, such as wind shear, turbulence, and aerosol content. At present, these conditions are not directly incorporated into the estimated uncertainty of a lidar device. In this presentation, we describe the development of a new dynamic lidar uncertainty framework that adapts to current flow conditions and more accurately represents the actual uncertainty inherent in lidar measurements under different conditions. In this new framework, sources of uncertainty are identified for estimation of the line-of-sight wind speed and reconstruction of the three-dimensional wind field. These sources are then related to physical processes caused by the atmosphere and lidar operating conditions. The framework is applied to lidar data from a field measurement site to assess the ability of the framework to predict
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaul, Dean C.; Egbert, Stephen D.; Woolson, William A.
2005-01-01
In order to avoid the pitfalls that so discredited DS86 and its uncertainty estimates, and to provide DS02 uncertainties that are both defensible and credible, this report not only presents the ensemble uncertainties assembled from uncertainties in individual computational elements and radiation dose components but also describes how these relate to comparisons between observed and computed quantities at critical intervals in the computational process. These comparisons include those between observed and calculated radiation free-field components, where observations include thermal- and fast-neutron activation and gamma-ray thermoluminescence, which are relevant to the estimated systematic uncertainty for DS02. The comparisons also include those between calculated and observed survivor shielding, where the observations consist of biodosimetric measurements for individual survivors, which are relevant to the estimated random uncertainty for DS02. (J.P.N.)
Matus, José Tomás; Aquea, Felipe; Arce-Johnson, Patricio
2008-01-01
Background The MYB superfamily constitutes the most abundant group of transcription factors described in plants. Members control processes such as epidermal cell differentiation, stomatal aperture, flavonoid synthesis, cold and drought tolerance and pathogen resistance. No genome-wide characterization of this family has been conducted in a woody species such as grapevine. In addition, previous analysis of the recently released grape genome sequence suggested expansion events of several gene families involved in wine quality. Results We describe and classify 108 members of the grape R2R3 MYB gene subfamily in terms of their genomic gene structures and similarity to their putative Arabidopsis thaliana orthologues. Seven gene models were derived and analyzed in terms of gene expression and their DNA binding domain structures. Despite low overall sequence homology in the C-terminus of all proteins, even in those with similar functions across Arabidopsis and Vitis, highly conserved motif sequences and exon lengths were found. The grape epidermal cell fate clade is expanded when compared with the Arabidopsis and rice MYB subfamilies. Two anthocyanin MYBA related clusters were identified in chromosomes 2 and 14, one of which includes the previously described grape colour locus. Tannin related loci were also detected with eight candidate homologues in chromosomes 4, 9 and 11. Conclusion This genome wide transcription factor analysis in Vitis suggests that clade-specific grape R2R3 MYB genes are expanded while other MYB genes could be well conserved compared to Arabidopsis. MYB gene abundance, homology and orientation within particular loci also suggests that expanded MYB clades conferring quality attributes of grapes and wines, such as colour and astringency, could possess redundant, overlapping and cooperative functions. PMID:18647406
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Arce-Johnson Patricio
2008-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The MYB superfamily constitutes the most abundant group of transcription factors described in plants. Members control processes such as epidermal cell differentiation, stomatal aperture, flavonoid synthesis, cold and drought tolerance and pathogen resistance. No genome-wide characterization of this family has been conducted in a woody species such as grapevine. In addition, previous analysis of the recently released grape genome sequence suggested expansion events of several gene families involved in wine quality. Results We describe and classify 108 members of the grape R2R3 MYB gene subfamily in terms of their genomic gene structures and similarity to their putative Arabidopsis thaliana orthologues. Seven gene models were derived and analyzed in terms of gene expression and their DNA binding domain structures. Despite low overall sequence homology in the C-terminus of all proteins, even in those with similar functions across Arabidopsis and Vitis, highly conserved motif sequences and exon lengths were found. The grape epidermal cell fate clade is expanded when compared with the Arabidopsis and rice MYB subfamilies. Two anthocyanin MYBA related clusters were identified in chromosomes 2 and 14, one of which includes the previously described grape colour locus. Tannin related loci were also detected with eight candidate homologues in chromosomes 4, 9 and 11. Conclusion This genome wide transcription factor analysis in Vitis suggests that clade-specific grape R2R3 MYB genes are expanded while other MYB genes could be well conserved compared to Arabidopsis. MYB gene abundance, homology and orientation within particular loci also suggests that expanded MYB clades conferring quality attributes of grapes and wines, such as colour and astringency, could possess redundant, overlapping and cooperative functions.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2006-01-01
There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.
Uncertainty in hydrological signatures
McMillan, Hilary; Westerberg, Ida
2015-04-01
Information that summarises the hydrological behaviour or flow regime of a catchment is essential for comparing responses of different catchments to understand catchment organisation and similarity, and for many other modelling and water-management applications. Such information types derived as an index value from observed data are known as hydrological signatures, and can include descriptors of high flows (e.g. mean annual flood), low flows (e.g. mean annual low flow, recession shape), the flow variability, flow duration curve, and runoff ratio. Because the hydrological signatures are calculated from observed data such as rainfall and flow records, they are affected by uncertainty in those data. Subjective choices in the method used to calculate the signatures create a further source of uncertainty. Uncertainties in the signatures may affect our ability to compare different locations, to detect changes, or to compare future water resource management scenarios. The aim of this study was to contribute to the hydrological community's awareness and knowledge of data uncertainty in hydrological signatures, including typical sources, magnitude and methods for its assessment. We proposed a generally applicable method to calculate these uncertainties based on Monte Carlo sampling and demonstrated it for a variety of commonly used signatures. The study was made for two data rich catchments, the 50 km2 Mahurangi catchment in New Zealand and the 135 km2 Brue catchment in the UK. For rainfall data the uncertainty sources included point measurement uncertainty, the number of gauges used in calculation of the catchment spatial average, and uncertainties relating to lack of quality control. For flow data the uncertainty sources included uncertainties in stage/discharge measurement and in the approximation of the true stage-discharge relation by a rating curve. The resulting uncertainties were compared across the different signatures and catchments, to quantify uncertainty
Johansen, Geir
2014-01-01
Studies on sociology and music education are important because they can enlighten how music education relates to social change. By studying how music education changes and is changed by society we enable ourselves to describe how it can contribute to the understanding of social change generally. This may lay the ground for us in contributing to…
Al-Maawali, Almundher; Dupuis, Lucie; Blaser, Susan; Heon, Elise; Tarnopolsky, Mark; Al-Murshedi, Fathiya; Marshall, Christian R.; Paton, Tara; Scherer, Stephen W.; Roelofsen, Jeroen; van Kuilenburg, André B. P.; Mendoza-Londono, Roberto; Boycott, Kym; Friedman, Jan; Michaud, Jacques; Bernier, Francois; Brudno, Michael; Fernandez, Bridget; Knoppers, Bartha; Samuels, Mark; Scherer, Steve; Marcadier, Janet; Beaulieu, Chandree
2015-01-01
PRPS1 codes for the enzyme phosphoribosyl pyrophosphate synthetase-1 (PRS-1). The spectrum of PRPS1-related disorders associated with reduced activity includes Arts syndrome, Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease-5 (CMTX5) and X-linked non-syndromic sensorineural deafness (DFN2). We describe a novel phenotype
Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor); Bell, Thomas L.; Steiner, Matthias; Zhang, Yu; Wood, Eric F.
2002-01-01
The uncertainty of rainfall estimated from averages of discrete samples collected by a satellite is assessed using a multi-year radar data set covering a large portion of the United States. The sampling-related uncertainty of rainfall estimates is evaluated for all combinations of 100 km, 200 km, and 500 km space domains, 1 day, 5 day, and 30 day rainfall accumulations, and regular sampling time intervals of 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 8 h, and 12 h. These extensive analyses are combined to characterize the sampling uncertainty as a function of space and time domain, sampling frequency, and rainfall characteristics by means of a simple scaling law. Moreover, it is shown that both parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques of estimating the sampling uncertainty produce comparable results. Sampling uncertainty estimates, however, do depend on the choice of technique for obtaining them. They can also vary considerably from case to case, reflecting the great variability of natural rainfall, and should therefore be expressed in probabilistic terms. Rainfall calibration errors are shown to affect comparison of results obtained by studies based on data from different climate regions and/or observation platforms.
Goutzamanis, Stelliana; Doyle, Joseph S; Thompson, Alexander; Dietze, Paul; Hellard, Margaret; Higgs, Peter
2018-04-02
People who inject drugs (PWID) are most at risk of hepatitis C virus infection in Australia. The introduction of transient elastography (TE) (measuring hepatitis fibrosis) and direct acting antiviral medications will likely alter the experience of living with hepatitis C. We aimed to explore positive and negative influences on wellbeing and stress among PWID with hepatitis C. The Treatment and Prevention (TAP) study examines the feasibility of treating hepatitis C mono-infected PWID in community settings. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 16 purposively recruited TAP participants. Participants were aware of their hepatitis C seropositive status and had received fibrosis assessment (measured by TE) prior to interview. Questions were open-ended, focusing on the impact of health status on wellbeing and self-reported stress. Interviews were voice recorded, transcribed verbatim and thematically analysed, guided by Mishel's (1988) theory of Uncertainty in Illness. In line with Mishel's theory of Uncertainty in Illness all participants reported hepatitis C-related uncertainty, particularly mis-information or a lack of knowledge surrounding liver health and the meaning of TE results. Those with greater fibrosis experienced an extra layer of prognostic uncertainty. Experiences of uncertainty were a key motivation to seek treatment, which was seen as a way to regain some stability in life. Treatment completion alleviated hepatitis C-related stress, and promoted feelings of empowerment and confidence in addressing other life challenges. TE scores seemingly provide some certainty. However, when paired with limited knowledge, particularly among people with severe fibrosis, TE may be a source of uncertainty and increased personal stress. This suggests the need for simple education programs and resources on liver health to minimise stress.
The expanding universe: an introduction
Pössel, Markus
2017-01-01
An introduction to the physics and mathematics of the expanding universe, using no more than high-school level / undergraduate mathematics. Covered are the basics of scale factor expansion, the dynamics of the expanding universe, various distance concepts and the generalized redshift-luminosity relation, among other topics.
A New Framework for Quantifying Lidar Uncertainty
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Newman, Jennifer, F.; Clifton, Andrew; Bonin, Timothy A.; Churchfield, Matthew J.
2017-03-24
As wind turbine sizes increase and wind energy expands to more complex and remote sites, remote sensing devices such as lidars are expected to play a key role in wind resource assessment and power performance testing. The switch to remote sensing devices represents a paradigm shift in the way the wind industry typically obtains and interprets measurement data for wind energy. For example, the measurement techniques and sources of uncertainty for a remote sensing device are vastly different from those associated with a cup anemometer on a meteorological tower. Current IEC standards discuss uncertainty due to mounting, calibration, and classification of the remote sensing device, among other parameters. Values of the uncertainty are typically given as a function of the mean wind speed measured by a reference device. However, real-world experience has shown that lidar performance is highly dependent on atmospheric conditions, such as wind shear, turbulence, and aerosol content. At present, these conditions are not directly incorporated into the estimated uncertainty of a lidar device. In this presentation, we propose the development of a new lidar uncertainty framework that adapts to current flow conditions and more accurately represents the actual uncertainty inherent in lidar measurements under different conditions. In this new framework, sources of uncertainty are identified for estimation of the line-of-sight wind speed and reconstruction of the three-dimensional wind field. These sources are then related to physical processes caused by the atmosphere and lidar operating conditions. The framework is applied to lidar data from an operational wind farm to assess the ability of the framework to predict errors in lidar-measured wind speed.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Emily A Burger
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Increasingly, countries have introduced female vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV, causally linked to several cancers and genital warts, but few have recommended vaccination of boys. Declining vaccine prices and strong evidence of vaccine impact on reducing HPV-related conditions in both women and men prompt countries to reevaluate whether HPV vaccination of boys is warranted. METHODS: A previously-published dynamic model of HPV transmission was empirically calibrated to Norway. Reductions in the incidence of HPV, including both direct and indirect benefits, were applied to a natural history model of cervical cancer, and to incidence-based models for other non-cervical HPV-related diseases. We calculated the health outcomes and costs of the different HPV-related conditions under a gender-neutral vaccination program compared to a female-only program. RESULTS: Vaccine price had a decisive impact on results. For example, assuming 71% coverage, high vaccine efficacy and a reasonable vaccine tender price of $75 per dose, we found vaccinating both girls and boys fell below a commonly cited cost-effectiveness threshold in Norway ($83,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY gained when including vaccine benefit for all HPV-related diseases. However, at the current market price, including boys would not be considered 'good value for money.' For settings with a lower cost-effectiveness threshold ($30,000/QALY, it would not be considered cost-effective to expand the current program to include boys, unless the vaccine price was less than $36/dose. Increasing vaccination coverage to 90% among girls was more effective and less costly than the benefits achieved by vaccinating both genders with 71% coverage. CONCLUSIONS: At the anticipated tender price, expanding the HPV vaccination program to boys may be cost-effective and may warrant a change in the current female-only vaccination policy in Norway. However, increasing coverage in girls is
Burger, Emily A.; Sy, Stephen; Nygård, Mari; Kristiansen, Ivar S.; Kim, Jane J.
2014-01-01
Background Increasingly, countries have introduced female vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV), causally linked to several cancers and genital warts, but few have recommended vaccination of boys. Declining vaccine prices and strong evidence of vaccine impact on reducing HPV-related conditions in both women and men prompt countries to reevaluate whether HPV vaccination of boys is warranted. Methods A previously-published dynamic model of HPV transmission was empirically calibrated to Norway. Reductions in the incidence of HPV, including both direct and indirect benefits, were applied to a natural history model of cervical cancer, and to incidence-based models for other non-cervical HPV-related diseases. We calculated the health outcomes and costs of the different HPV-related conditions under a gender-neutral vaccination program compared to a female-only program. Results Vaccine price had a decisive impact on results. For example, assuming 71% coverage, high vaccine efficacy and a reasonable vaccine tender price of $75 per dose, we found vaccinating both girls and boys fell below a commonly cited cost-effectiveness threshold in Norway ($83,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained) when including vaccine benefit for all HPV-related diseases. However, at the current market price, including boys would not be considered ‘good value for money.’ For settings with a lower cost-effectiveness threshold ($30,000/QALY), it would not be considered cost-effective to expand the current program to include boys, unless the vaccine price was less than $36/dose. Increasing vaccination coverage to 90% among girls was more effective and less costly than the benefits achieved by vaccinating both genders with 71% coverage. Conclusions At the anticipated tender price, expanding the HPV vaccination program to boys may be cost-effective and may warrant a change in the current female-only vaccination policy in Norway. However, increasing coverage in girls is uniformly more
Kulasiri, Don; Liang, Jingyi; He, Yao; Samarasinghe, Sandhya
2017-04-21
We investigate the epistemic uncertainties of parameters of a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of CaMKII-NMDAR complex related to memory formation in synapses using global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The model, which was published in this journal, is nonlinear and complex with Ca 2+ patterns with different level of frequencies as inputs. We explore the effects of parameter on the key outputs of the model to discover the most sensitive ones using GSA and partial ranking correlation coefficient (PRCC) and to understand why they are sensitive and others are not based on the biology of the problem. We also extend the model to add presynaptic neurotransmitter vesicles release to have action potentials as inputs of different frequencies. We perform GSA on this extended model to show that the parameter sensitivities are different for the extended model as shown by PRCC landscapes. Based on the results of GSA and PRCC, we reduce the original model to a less complex model taking the most important biological processes into account. We validate the reduced model against the outputs of the original model. We show that the parameter sensitivities are dependent on the inputs and GSA would make us understand the sensitivities and the importance of the parameters. A thorough phenomenological understanding of the relationships involved is essential to interpret the results of GSA and hence for the possible model reduction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aven, Terje; Pedersen, Linda Martens
2014-01-01
Production assurance analyses of production systems are in practice typically carried out using flow network modelling and Monte Carlo simulations. Based on the network and probability distribution assumptions for equipment lifetime and restoration time, the simulation tool produces predictions/estimates and uncertainty distributions of the production availability, which is defined as the ratio of production to planned production, or any other reference level, over a specified period of time. To adequately communicate the results from the analyses, it is essential that there is in place a framework which clarifies how to understand the concepts introduced, including the uncertainty distributions produced. Some key elements of such a conceptual framework are well established in the industry, for example the use of probability models to represent the stochastic variation related to lifetimes and restoration times. However an overall framework linking this variation, as well as “model uncertainties”, to the epistemic uncertainty distribution for the output production availability, has been lacking. The purpose of the present paper is to present such a framework, and in this way provide new insights to and guidelines on how to understand and present the uncertainties in practical production assurance analyses. An example related to a subsea production system is used to illustrate the framework and the guidelines
Grossmann, Jonas; Fernández, Helena; Chaubey, Pururawa M; Valdés, Ana E; Gagliardini, Valeria; Cañal, María J; Russo, Giancarlo; Grossniklaus, Ueli
2017-01-01
Performing proteomic studies on non-model organisms with little or no genomic information is still difficult. However, many specific processes and biochemical pathways occur only in species that are poorly characterized at the genomic level. For example, many plants can reproduce both sexually and asexually, the first one allowing the generation of new genotypes and the latter their fixation. Thus, both modes of reproduction are of great agronomic value. However, the molecular basis of asexual reproduction is not well understood in any plant. In ferns, it combines the production of unreduced spores (diplospory) and the formation of sporophytes from somatic cells (apogamy). To set the basis to study these processes, we performed transcriptomics by next-generation sequencing (NGS) and shotgun proteomics by tandem mass spectrometry in the apogamous fern D. affinis ssp. affinis . For protein identification we used the public viridiplantae database (VPDB) to identify orthologous proteins from other plant species and new transcriptomics data to generate a "species-specific transcriptome database" (SSTDB). In total 1,397 protein clusters with 5,865 unique peptide sequences were identified (13 decoy proteins out of 1,410, protFDR 0.93% on protein cluster level). We show that using the SSTDB for protein identification increases the number of identified peptides almost four times compared to using only the publically available VPDB. We identified homologs of proteins involved in reproduction of higher plants, including proteins with a potential role in apogamy. With the increasing availability of genomic data from non-model species, similar proteogenomics approaches will improve the sensitivity in protein identification for species only distantly related to models.
Liu, Baoding
2015-01-01
When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...
Measurement uncertainty and probability
Willink, Robin
2013-01-01
A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.
Justification for recommended uncertainties
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pronyaev, V.G.; Badikov, S.A.; Carlson, A.D.
2007-01-01
The uncertainties obtained in an earlier standards evaluation were considered to be unrealistically low by experts of the US Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG). Therefore, the CSEWG Standards Subcommittee replaced the covariance matrices of evaluated uncertainties by expanded percentage errors that were assigned to the data over wide energy groups. There are a number of reasons that might lead to low uncertainties of the evaluated data: Underestimation of the correlations existing between the results of different measurements; The presence of unrecognized systematic uncertainties in the experimental data can lead to biases in the evaluated data as well as to underestimations of the resulting uncertainties; Uncertainties for correlated data cannot only be characterized by percentage uncertainties or variances. Covariances between evaluated value at 0.2 MeV and other points obtained in model (RAC R matrix and PADE2 analytical expansion) and non-model (GMA) fits of the 6 Li(n,t) TEST1 data and the correlation coefficients are presented and covariances between the evaluated value at 0.045 MeV and other points (along the line or column of the matrix) as obtained in EDA and RAC R matrix fits of the data available for reactions that pass through the formation of the 7 Li system are discussed. The GMA fit with the GMA database is shown for comparison. The following diagrams are discussed: Percentage uncertainties of the evaluated cross section for the 6 Li(n,t) reaction and the for the 235 U(n,f) reaction; estimation given by CSEWG experts; GMA result with full GMA database, including experimental data for the 6 Li(n,t), 6 Li(n,n) and 6 Li(n,total) reactions; uncertainties in the GMA combined fit for the standards; EDA and RAC R matrix results, respectively. Uncertainties of absolute and 252 Cf fission spectrum averaged cross section measurements, and deviations between measured and evaluated values for 235 U(n,f) cross-sections in the neutron energy range 1
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ying Pan
Full Text Available Regulatory T cells (Tregs are potent immunosuppressive cells and essential for inducing immune tolerance. Recent studies have reported that Tregs and Tregs related cytokines can inhibit the antitumor activity of cytokine-induced killer (CIK cells, but dendritic cells co-cultured CIK (DC-CIK cells can be used for induction of a specific immune response by blocking of Tregs and TGF-β, IL-10. As a novel identified cytokine, IL-35 is specially produced by Tregs and plays an essential role in immune regulation. However, it remains unknown whether IL-35 roles in tumor immunotherapy mediated by CIK and DC-CIK cells. In this study, we cultured CIK and DC-CIK cells from the same healthy adult samples, and investigated their phenotype, proliferation, cytotoxic activity against leukemia cell lines K562 and NB4 by FCM and CCK-8, measured IL-35, TGF-β and IL-10 protein by ELISA, detected Foxp3, IL-35 and IL-35 receptor mRNA by Real-time PCR, respectively. We found Tregs and IL-35 concomitantly expanded by a time-dependent way during the generation of CIK cells, but DC significantly down-regulated the expression of them and simultaneously up-regulated the proliferation ability as well as cytotoxic activity of CIK cells against leukemia cell lines. Therefore, our data suggested that DC decreased concomitant expanded Tregs and Tregs related IL-35 in CIK cells and might contribute to improve their cytotoxicity against leukemia cells in vitro.
Grazing incidence beam expander
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Akkapeddi, P.R.; Glenn, P.; Fuschetto, A.; Appert, Q.; Viswanathan, V.K.
1985-01-01
A Grazing Incidence Beam Expander (GIBE) telescope is being designed and fabricated to be used as an equivalent end mirror in a long laser resonator cavity. The design requirements for this GIBE flow down from a generic Free Electron Laser (FEL) resonator. The nature of the FEL gain volume (a thin, pencil-like, on-axis region) dictates that the output beam be very small. Such a thin beam with the high power levels characteristic of FELs would have to travel perhaps hundreds of meters or more before expanding enough to allow reflection from cooled mirrors. A GIBE, on the other hand, would allow placing these optics closer to the gain region and thus reduces the cavity lengths substantially. Results are presented relating to optical and mechanical design, alignment sensitivity analysis, radius of curvature analysis, laser cavity stability analysis of a linear stable concentric laser cavity with a GIBE. Fabrication details of the GIBE are also given.
Hukkerikar, Amol Shivajirao; Kalakul, Sawitree; Sarup, Bent; Young, Douglas M; Sin, Gürkan; Gani, Rafiqul
2012-11-26
The aim of this work is to develop group-contribution(+) (GC(+)) method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI) method) based property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncertainties of estimated property values. For this purpose, a systematic methodology for property modeling and uncertainty analysis is used. The methodology includes a parameter estimation step to determine parameters of property models and an uncertainty analysis step to establish statistical information about the quality of parameter estimation, such as the parameter covariance, the standard errors in predicted properties, and the confidence intervals. For parameter estimation, large data sets of experimentally measured property values of a wide range of chemicals (hydrocarbons, oxygenated chemicals, nitrogenated chemicals, poly functional chemicals, etc.) taken from the database of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and from the database of USEtox is used. For property modeling and uncertainty analysis, the Marrero and Gani GC method and atom connectivity index method have been considered. In total, 22 environment-related properties, which include the fathead minnow 96-h LC(50), Daphnia magna 48-h LC(50), oral rat LD(50), aqueous solubility, bioconcentration factor, permissible exposure limit (OSHA-TWA), photochemical oxidation potential, global warming potential, ozone depletion potential, acidification potential, emission to urban air (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental rural air (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental fresh water (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental seawater (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental natural soil (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), and emission to continental agricultural soil (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) have been modeled and analyzed. The application
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wedenberg, Minna, E-mail: minna.wedenberg@raysearchlabs.com
2013-11-15
Purpose: To apply a statistical bootstrap analysis to assess the uncertainty in the dose–response relation for the endpoints pneumonitis and myelopathy reported in the QUANTEC review. Methods and Materials: The bootstrap method assesses the uncertainty of the estimated population-based dose-response relation due to sample variability, which reflects the uncertainty due to limited numbers of patients in the studies. A large number of bootstrap replicates of the original incidence data were produced by random sampling with replacement. The analysis requires only the dose, the number of patients, and the number of occurrences of the studied endpoint, for each study. Two dose–response models, a Poisson-based model and the Lyman model, were fitted to each bootstrap replicate using maximum likelihood. Results: The bootstrap analysis generates a family of curves representing the range of plausible dose–response relations, and the 95% bootstrap confidence intervals give an estimated upper and lower toxicity risk. The curve families for the 2 dose–response models overlap for doses included in the studies at hand but diverge beyond that, with the Lyman model suggesting a steeper slope. The resulting distributions of the model parameters indicate correlation and non-Gaussian distribution. For both data sets, the likelihood of the observed data was higher for the Lyman model in >90% of the bootstrap replicates. Conclusions: The bootstrap method provides a statistical analysis of the uncertainty in the estimated dose–response relation for myelopathy and pneumonitis. It suggests likely values of model parameter values, their confidence intervals, and how they interrelate for each model. Finally, it can be used to evaluate to what extent data supports one model over another. For both data sets considered here, the Lyman model was preferred over the Poisson-based model.
Verbeke, C S; Wenthe, U; Bergler, W F; Zentgraf, H
2000-01-01
Infectious mononucleosis (IM), a manifestation of primary infection with EBV, is characterized by a massive expansion of the T cell population. In this study we examined this expanded T cell population regarding its EBV status, its proliferative and apoptotic activity, and its expression of apoptosis-related genes. Whereas previous studies were performed on ex vivo cultures or on peripheral blood, our investigations included in vivo analysis of IM tonsillectomy specimens (14 cases) by in situ hybridization for viral RNA (EBERs) combined with immunohistochemistry (IHC; CD3, CD45RO, CD20, CD79a, Ki-67, Bcl-2, Bax, Fas, FasL) and the TUNEL method. Of the EBER+ cells 50–70% showed expression of the B cell markers CD20/CD79a. The remainder of the EBER+ cells expressed neither B nor T cell antigens. No co-expression of EBERs and T cell antigens was detected in any of the specimens. In accordance with a high rate of apoptosis (up to 2·37%) within the expanded T cell population, Bcl-2 expression was drastically reduced and FasL expression remarkably increased. The levels of Bax and Fas expression showed no or moderate up-regulation. In conclusion, the massive expansion of IM T cells is not caused by EBV infection of these cells but merely represents an intense immune reaction. Through altered expression of Bcl-2/Bax and Fas/FasL, the activated T cells are subject to enhanced apoptosis while residing within the lymphoid tissue, which eventually allows the efficient silencing of this potentially damaging T cell response. PMID:10792379
Evaluation of uncertainties in the calibration of radiation personal monitor with Cesium-137 source
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mirapalheta, Tatiane; Alexandre, Anderson; Costa, Camila; Batista, Gilmar; Paulino, Thyago; Albuquerque, Marcos; Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro
2016-01-01
This work shows the entire calibration process of an individual monitor, focusing on radiation protection, in health, correlating these measures associated uncertainties. The results show an expanded uncertainty of 5.81% for dose rate measurements and an expanded uncertainty of 5.61% for integrated dose measurements, these uncertainties have been evaluated the type A and type B with its components. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shaw, W.; Grindrod, P.
1989-01-01
This document encompasses two main items. The first consists of a review of four aspects of fuzzy sets, namely, the general framework, the role of expert judgment, mathematical and computational aspects, and present applications. The second consists of the application of fuzzy-set theory to simplified problems in radionuclide migration, with comparisons between fuzzy and probabilistic approaches, treated both analytically and computationally. A new approach to fuzzy differential equations is presented, and applied to simple ordinary and partial differential equations. It is argued that such fuzzy techniques represent a viable alternative to probabilistic risk assessment, for handling systems subject to uncertainties
Duerdoth, Ian
2009-01-01
The subject of uncertainties (sometimes called errors) is traditionally taught (to first-year science undergraduates) towards the end of a course on statistics that defines probability as the limit of many trials, and discusses probability distribution functions and the Gaussian distribution. We show how to introduce students to the concepts of…
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Heydorn, Kaj; Anglov, Thomas
2002-01-01
Methods recommended by the International Standardization Organisation and Eurachem are not satisfactory for the correct estimation of calibration uncertainty. A novel approach is introduced and tested on actual calibration data for the determination of Pb by ICP-AES. The improved calibration...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. Roofegari Nejad
2016-06-01
Full Text Available This paper presents novel methods for Demand Response (DR programs by considering welfare state of consumers, to deal with the operational uncertainties, such as wind energy and energy price, within the framework of a smart microgrid. In this regard, total loads of microgrid are classified into two groups and each one is represented by a typical load. First group is energy storage capability represents by heater loads and second is curtailment capability loads represents by lighting loads. Next by the proposed DR methods, consumed energy of the all loads is coupled to the wind energy rate and energy price. Finally these methods are applied in the operation of a smart microgrid, consists of dispatchable supplier (microturbine, nondispatchable supplier (wind turbine, energy storage system and loads with the capability of energy exchanging with upstream distribution network. In order to consider uncertainties, Monte Carlo simulation method is used, which various scenarios are generated and applied in the operation of microgrid. In the end, the simulation results on a typical microgrid show that implementing proposed DR methods contributes to increasing total operational profit of smart microgrid and also decreasing the risk of low profit too.
Rigo-Bonnin, Raül; Blanco-Font, Aurora; Canalias, Francesca
2018-05-08
Values of mass concentration of tacrolimus in whole blood are commonly used by the clinicians for monitoring the status of a transplant patient and for checking whether the administered dose of tacrolimus is effective. So, clinical laboratories must provide results as accurately as possible. Measurement uncertainty can allow ensuring reliability of these results. The aim of this study was to estimate measurement uncertainty of whole blood mass concentration tacrolimus values obtained by UHPLC-MS/MS using two top-down approaches: the single laboratory validation approach and the proficiency testing approach. For the single laboratory validation approach, we estimated the uncertainties associated to the intermediate imprecision (using long-term internal quality control data) and the bias (utilizing a certified reference material). Next, we combined them together with the uncertainties related to the calibrators-assigned values to obtain a combined uncertainty for, finally, to calculate the expanded uncertainty. For the proficiency testing approach, the uncertainty was estimated in a similar way that the single laboratory validation approach but considering data from internal and external quality control schemes to estimate the uncertainty related to the bias. The estimated expanded uncertainty for single laboratory validation, proficiency testing using internal and external quality control schemes were 11.8%, 13.2%, and 13.0%, respectively. After performing the two top-down approaches, we observed that their uncertainty results were quite similar. This fact would confirm that either two approaches could be used to estimate the measurement uncertainty of whole blood mass concentration tacrolimus values in clinical laboratories. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Evaluating prediction uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McKay, M.D.
1995-03-01
The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chen, Chang-Yuan, E-mail: yctcccy@163.net [School of Physics and Electronics, Yancheng Teachers University, Yancheng 224051 (China); You, Yuan; Lu, Fa-Lin [School of Physics and Electronics, Yancheng Teachers University, Yancheng 224051 (China); Dong, Shi-Hai, E-mail: dongsh2@yahoo.com [Departamento de Física, Escuela Superior de Física y Matemáticas, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Edificio 9, Unidad Profesional Adolfo López Mateos, Mexico D.F. 07738 (Mexico)
2013-06-17
We present the position–momentum uncertainties for the Pöschl–Teller potential. We observe that the Δx decreases with the potential depth λ but increases with quantum number n. Interestingly, we find that the Δp first increases and then decreases with the n. The ΔxΔp first decreases and then increases with the λ, but almost becomes a constant (n+1/2)ℏ for a larger λ. Particularly, there exists a squeezed phenomenon in position x for the lower states. The squeezing in x compensated for by an increase in momentum p, such that ΔxΔp⩾ℏ/2 is still satisfied.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen, Chang-Yuan; You, Yuan; Lu, Fa-Lin; Dong, Shi-Hai
2013-01-01
We present the position–momentum uncertainties for the Pöschl–Teller potential. We observe that the Δx decreases with the potential depth λ but increases with quantum number n. Interestingly, we find that the Δp first increases and then decreases with the n. The ΔxΔp first decreases and then increases with the λ, but almost becomes a constant (n+1/2)ℏ for a larger λ. Particularly, there exists a squeezed phenomenon in position x for the lower states. The squeezing in x compensated for by an increase in momentum p, such that ΔxΔp⩾ℏ/2 is still satisfied.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen
This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...
Allou, L; Julia, S; Amsallem, D; El Chehadeh, S; Lambert, L; Thevenon, J; Duffourd, Y; Saunier, A; Bouquet, P; Pere, S; Moustaïne, A; Ruaud, L; Roth, V; Jonveaux, P; Philippe, C
2017-03-01
Several genes have been implicated in Rett syndrome (RTT) in its typical and variant forms. We applied next-generation sequencing (NGS) to evaluate for mutations in known or new candidate genes in patients with variant forms of Rett or Rett-like phenotypes of unknown molecular aetiology. In the first step, we used NGS with a custom panel including MECP2, CDKL5, FOXG1, MEF2C and IQSEC2. In addition to a FOXG1 mutation in a patient with all core features of the congenital variant of RTT, we identified a missense (p.Ser240Thr) in CDKL5 in a patient who appeared to be seizure free. This missense was maternally inherited with opposite allele expression ratios in the proband and her mother. In the asymptomatic mother, the mutated copy of the CDKL5 gene was inactivated in 90% of blood cells. We also identified a premature stop codon (p.Arg926*) in IQSEC2 in a patient with a Rett-like phenotype. Finally, exome sequencing enabled us to characterize a heterozygous de novo missense (p.Val408Ala) in KCNA2 encoding the potassium channel Kv 1.2 in a girl with infantile-onset seizures variant of RTT. Our study expands the genetic heterogeneity of RTT and RTT-like phenotypes. Moreover, we report the first familial case of CDKL5-related disease. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Uncertainty calculations made easier
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hogenbirk, A.
1994-07-01
The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL)
Peixoto, J. G. P.; de Almeida, C. E.
2001-09-01
It is recognized by the international guidelines that it is necessary to offer calibration services for mammography beams in order to improve the quality of clinical diagnosis. Major efforts have been made by several laboratories in order to establish an appropriate and traceable calibration infrastructure and to provide the basis for a quality control programme in mammography. The contribution of the radiation metrology network to the users of mammography is reviewed in this work. Also steps required for the implementation of a mammography calibration system using a constant potential x-ray and a clinical mammography x-ray machine are presented. The various qualities of mammography radiation discussed in this work are in accordance with the IEC 61674 and the AAPM recommendations. They are at present available at several primary standard dosimetry laboratories (PSDLs), namely the PTB, NIST and BEV and a few secondary standard dosimetry laboratories (SSDLs) such as at the University of Wisconsin and at the IAEA's SSDL. We discuss the uncertainties involved in all steps of the calibration chain in accord with the ISO recommendations.
Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A.Yu.; Anstey, J.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Baldwin, M.P.; Black, R.X.; Cagnazzo, C.; Calvo, N.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Christiansen, B.;
2014-01-01
Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.
Uncertainty estimation in nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guarro, S.B.; Cummings, G.E.
1989-01-01
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) was introduced in the nuclear industry and the nuclear regulatory process in 1975 with the publication of the Reactor Safety Study by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Almost fifteen years later, the state-of-the-art in this field has been expanded and sharpened in many areas, and about thirty-five plant-specific PRAs (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) have been performed by the nuclear utility companies or by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory commission. Among the areas where the most evident progress has been made in PRA and PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment, as these studies are more commonly referred to in the international community outside the U.S.) is the development of a consistent framework for the identification of sources of uncertainty and the estimation of their magnitude as it impacts various risk measures. Techniques to propagate uncertainty in reliability data through the risk models and display its effect on the top level risk estimates were developed in the early PRAs. The Seismic Safety Margin Research Program (SSMRP) study was the first major risk study to develop an approach to deal explicitly with uncertainty in risk estimates introduced not only by uncertainty in component reliability data, but by the incomplete state of knowledge of the assessor(s) with regard to basic phenomena that may trigger and drive a severe accident. More recently NUREG-1150, another major study of reactor risk sponsored by the NRC, has expanded risk uncertainty estimation and analysis into the realm of model uncertainty related to the relatively poorly known post-core-melt phenomena which determine the behavior of the molten core and of the rector containment structures
Zou, Xiao-Duan; Li, Jian-Yang; Clark, Beth Ellen; Golish, Dathon
2018-01-01
The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, launched in September, 2016, will study the asteroid Bennu and return a sample from its surface to Earth in 2023. Bennu is a near-Earth carbonaceous asteroid which will provide insight into the formation and evolution of the solar system. OSIRIS-REx will first approach Bennu in August 2018 and will study the asteroid for approximately two years before sampling. OSIRIS-REx will develop its photometric model (including Lommel-Seelinger, ROLO, McEwen, Minnaert and Akimov) of Bennu with OCAM and OVIRS during the Detailed Survey mission phase. The model developed during this phase will be used to photometrically correct the OCAM and OVIRS data.Here we present the analysis of the error for the photometric corrections. Based on our testing data sets, we find:1. The model uncertainties is only correct when we use the covariance matrix to calculate, because the parameters are highly correlated.2. No evidence of domination of any parameter in each model.3. And both model error and the data error contribute to the final correction error comparably.4. We tested the uncertainty module on fake and real data sets, and find that model performance depends on the data coverage and data quality. These tests gave us a better understanding of how different model behave in different case.5. L-S model is more reliable than others. Maybe because the simulated data are based on L-S model. However, the test on real data (SPDIF) does show slight advantage of L-S, too. ROLO is not reliable to use when calculating bond albedo. The uncertainty of McEwen model is big in most cases. Akimov performs unphysical on SOPIE 1 data.6. Better use L-S as our default choice, this conclusion is based mainly on our test on SOPIE data and IPDIF.
Saviano, Alessandro Morais; Francisco, Fabiane Lacerda; Ostronoff, Celina Silva; Lourenço, Felipe Rebello
2015-01-01
The aim of this study was to develop, optimize, and validate a microplate bioassay for relative potency determination of linezolid in pharmaceutical samples using quality-by-design and design space approaches. In addition, a procedure is described for estimating relative potency uncertainty based on microbiological response variability. The influence of culture media composition was studied using a factorial design and a central composite design was adopted to study the influence of inoculum proportion and triphenyltetrazolium chloride in microbial growth. The microplate bioassay was optimized regarding the responses of low, medium, and high doses of linezolid, negative and positive controls, and the slope, intercept, and correlation coefficient of dose-response curves. According to optimization results, design space ranges were established using: (a) low (1.0 μg/mL), medium (2.0 μg/mL), and high (4.0 μg/mL) doses of pharmaceutical samples and linezolid chemical reference substance; (b) Staphylococcus aureus ATCC 653 in an inoculum proportion of 10%; (c) antibiotic No. 3 culture medium pH 7.0±0.1; (d) 6 h incubation at 37.0±0.1ºC; and (e) addition of 50 μL of 0.5% (w/v) triphenyltetrazolium chloride solution. The microplate bioassay was linear (r2=0.992), specific, precise (repeatability RSD=2.3% and intermediate precision RSD=4.3%), accurate (mean recovery=101.4%), and robust. The overall measurement uncertainty was reasonable considering the increased variability inherent in microbiological response. Final uncertainty was comparable with those obtained with other microbiological assays, as well as chemical methods.
Ruymán Brito-Brito, Pedro; García-Tesouro, Esther; Fernández-Gutiérrez, Domingo Ángel; García-Hernández, Alfonso Miguel; Fernández-Gutiérrez, Raquel; Burillo-Putze, Guillermo
2018-01-01
To validate a Spanish adaptation of the Mishel Uncertainty of Illness Scale for use with emergency-department (ED) patients and their accompanying relatives or friends (the UIS-ED). We first developed a version of the questionnaire for Spanish ED situations. Next we assessed the content validity index for each of its items, revised it, and reassessed its face validity to produce a second version, which we then piloted in 20 hospital ED patients. A third revised version was then validated in a population of 320 adults (160 patients and 160 accompanying persons) who attended the ED between November 2015 and September 2016. The 12-item UIS-ED (60 points) was administered by 2 nurses while the patients and accompanying persons were in the ED. We gathered sociodemographic and clinical data as well as the subjects' perception about the information they were given. The mean (SD) uncertainty score among patients was 29 (11) points. Accompanying persons had a mean score of 36 (13) points. Factorial analysis confirmed the instrument's construct validity, finding that both dimensions of the original Mishel scale (complexity and ambiguity) were present in 6 items each. Factorial analysis explained 60% of the total variance in the patient version and 67% of the variance in the version for accompanying persons. Reliability statistics were good, with Cronbach's α values ranging from 0.912 to 0.938. Split-half reliability statistics ranged from 0.901 to 0.933. Correlations were significant in the analysis of convergent validity. The UIS-ED questionnaire may prove to be a simple, valid, and reliable way for assessing uncertainty in patients and their accompanying friends or relatives attending Spanish EDs.
Röder, Mirjam; Thornley, Patricia
2018-04-01
Considering the urgent need to shift to low carbon energy carriers, waste wood resources could provide an alternative energy feedstock and at the same time reduce emissions from landfill. This research examines the climate change impacts and related emission uncertainties of waste wood based energy. For this, different grades of waste wood and energy application have been investigated using lifecycle assessment. Sensitivity analysis has then been applied for supply chain processes and feedstock properties for the main emission contributing categories: transport, processing, pelletizing, urea resin fraction and related N 2 O formation. The results show, depending on the waste wood grade, the conversion option, scale and the related reference case, that emission reductions of up to 91% are possible for non-treated wood waste. Compared to this, energy from treated wood waste with low contamination can achieve up to 83% emission savings, similar to untreated waste wood pellets, but in some cases emissions from waste wood based energy can exceed the ones of the fossil fuel reference - in the worst case by 126%. Emission reductions from highly contaminated feedstocks are largest when replacing electricity from large-scale coal and landfill. The highest emission uncertainties are related to the wood's resin fraction and N 2 O formation during combustion and, pelletizing. Comparing wood processing with diesel and electricity powered equipment also generated high variations in the results, while emission variations related to transport are relatively small. Using treated waste wood as a bioenergy feedstock can be a valid option to reduce emissions from energy production but this is only realisable if coal and landfill gas are replaced. To achieve meaningful emission reduction in line with national and international climate change targets, pre-treatment of waste wood would be required to reduce components that form N 2 O during the energy conversion. Copyright © 2017
Uncertainty analysis of environmental models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Monte, L.
1990-01-01
In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition
What Expands in an Expanding Universe?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
JOSÉ A. DE FREITAS PACHECO
2015-12-01
Full Text Available ABSTRACT In the present investigation, the possible effects of the expansion of the Universe on systems bonded either by gravitational or electromagnetic forces, are reconsidered. It will be shown that the acceleration (positive or negative of the expanding background, is the determinant factor affecting planetary orbits and atomic sizes. In the presently accepted cosmology (ΛCDM all bonded systems are expanding at a decreasing rate that tends to be zero as the universe enters in a de Sitter phase. It is worth mentioning that the estimated expansion rates are rather small and they can be neglected for all practical purposes.
What Expands in an Expanding Universe?
Pacheco, José A De Freitas
2015-01-01
In the present investigation, the possible effects of the expansion of the Universe on systems bonded either by gravitational or electromagnetic forces, are reconsidered. It will be shown that the acceleration (positive or negative) of the expanding background, is the determinant factor affecting planetary orbits and atomic sizes. In the presently accepted cosmology (ΛCDM) all bonded systems are expanding at a decreasing rate that tends to be zero as the universe enters in a de Sitter phase. It is worth mentioning that the estimated expansion rates are rather small and they can be neglected for all practical purposes.
Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Levitt, TS; Lemmer, JF; Shachter, RD
1990-01-01
Clearly illustrated in this volume is the current relationship between Uncertainty and AI.It has been said that research in AI revolves around five basic questions asked relative to some particular domain: What knowledge is required? How can this knowledge be acquired? How can it be represented in a system? How should this knowledge be manipulated in order to provide intelligent behavior? How can the behavior be explained? In this volume, all of these questions are addressed. From the perspective of the relationship of uncertainty to the basic questions of AI, the book divides naturally i
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dehesa, J S [Departamento de Fisica Atomica, Molecular y Nuclear, Universidad de Granada, 18071-Granada (Spain); Gonzalez-Ferez, R [Departamento de Fisica Atomica, Molecular y Nuclear, Universidad de Granada, 18071-Granada (Spain); Sanchez-Moreno, P [Departamento de Fisica Atomica, Molecular y Nuclear, Universidad de Granada, 18071-Granada (Spain)
2007-02-23
The inequality
>= (l+1/2){sup 2}
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nha, Hyunchul; Kim, Jaewan
2006-01-01
We derive a class of inequalities, from the uncertainty relations of the su(1,1) and the su(2) algebra in conjunction with partial transposition, that must be satisfied by any separable two-mode states. These inequalities are presented in terms of the su(2) operators J x =(a † b+ab † )/2, J y =(a † b-ab † )/2i, and the total photon number a +N b >. They include as special cases the inequality derived by Hillery and Zubairy [Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 050503 (2006)], and the one by Agarwal and Biswas [New J. Phys. 7, 211 (2005)]. In particular, optimization over the whole inequalities leads to the criterion obtained by Agarwal and Biswas. We show that this optimal criterion can detect entanglement for a broad class of non-Gaussian entangled states, i.e., the su(2) minimum-uncertainty states. Experimental schemes to test the optimal criterion are also discussed, especially the one using linear optical devices and photodetectors
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Jansen van Rensburg, Gerhardus J
2011-10-01
Full Text Available In the present study, numerical results obtained on different but related shapes are compared by using a non-rigid mapping. Non-rigid registration is employed to obtain mesh representations of different human skull geometries with the same mesh...
Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Marzocchi, Warner; Uhinga, Guido
2013-04-01
Extreme meteorological phenomena such as heavy precipitation, extreme temperature, or strong winds, may have considerable impacts on the economy, infrastructure, health, as well as may represent a non-negligible threat for human life. A changing climate may lead to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of weather and climate extremes, and can result in unprecedented extreme events. Climatological parameters, that are reference variables for the assessment of climate-related hazards, can be generally obtained from data catalogues; nevertheless, it is often the case that the time window of the observations, if available at all, is too short for a correct analysis of the most extreme and less frequent events. For this reason there is a growing interest on the use of 'synthetic' data derived from climatological models which in addition, allow the possibility to perform climate projections considering different plausible emission/concentration scenarios in the modelling. Within this context, the scenario-based climate projections can be useful to assess possible temporal variations on climatological parameters (and hence in climate-related hazards) under climate change conditions. Here we discuss the characterization of some climate-related hazards based on the analysis of climatological parameters, debating relevant issues in the use of both observed and synthetic data, the consideration of climate-change scenarios, and the quantification and communication of uncertainties. In particular, to account for possible non-stationary conditions in the analysis of extremes under climate-change conditions, we have adopted a practical covariate approach recently used in different hydrological and meteorological applications, and used a Bayesian framework for the parameter estimation and uncertainty propagation.
Estimation of the uncertainties considered in NPP PSA level 2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kalchev, B.; Hristova, R.
2005-01-01
The main approaches of the uncertainties analysis are presented. The sources of uncertainties which should be considered in PSA level 2 for WWER reactor such as: uncertainties propagated from level 1 PSA; uncertainties in input parameters; uncertainties related to the modelling of physical phenomena during the accident progression and uncertainties related to the estimation of source terms are defined. The methods for estimation of the uncertainties are also discussed in this paper
Uncertainties and Solutions Related to Use of WRB (2007) in the Boreo-nemoral zone, Case of Latvia
Kasparinskis, Raimonds; Nikodemus, Olgerts; Rolavs, Nauris
2014-05-01
Relatively high diversity of soils groups according to the WRB (2007) classification is observed in forest ecosystems in the boreo-nemoral zone in Latvia. This is due to the geological genesis of area and environmental conditions (Kasparinskis, Nikodemus, 2012), as well as historical land use and management (Nikodemus et al., 2013). Due to the relatively young soils, Albic, Spodic and Cambic horizons are relatively weakly expressed in many cases. Relatively well developed Albic horizons occur in sandy forest soils, but unusually well expressed Spodic features are observed. In some cases there is a Cambic horizon, however location of Cambisols in the WRB (2007) soil classification sequence does not provide an opportunity to classify these soils as Cambisols, but they are classified as Arenosols. This sequence does not reflect the logical sheme of soil development, and therefore raises the question about location of Podzols, Arenosols and Cambisols in the sequence of WRB (2007) soil classification. Soils with two parent materials (abrupt textural change) are relatively common in Latvia, where conceptually on the small scale mapping results in classification as the soil group Planosols, but in many cases there is occurrence of Fluvic materials, as parent material in the upper part of the soil profile is formed by Baltic Ice lake sandy sediments - this leads to question about the location of Fluvisols and Planosols in the sequence of the WRB (2007) soil classification. Soil research has found cases, where a relatively well developed Spodic horizon was established as the result of ground water table depth in areas of abrupt textural change. In this case the profile corresponds to the soil group of Podzols, however in some cases - Gleysols not Planosols due to a high ground water table. Therefore there is a need for discussion also about the location of Podzols and Planosols in the sequence of the WRB (2007) soil classification. The above mentioned questions raise
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fabi, Valentina; Andersen, Rune Korsholm; Corgnati, Stefano
2016-01-01
The interactions between building occupants and control systems have a high influence on energy consumption and on indoor environmental quality. In the perspective of a future of "nearly-zero" energy buildings, it is crucial to analyse the energy-related interactions deeply to predict realistic e...... who take daylight level into account and switch on lights only if necessary and people who totally disregard the natural lighting. This underlines the importance of how individuality is at the base of the definition of the different types of users....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rudolph, David Philipp
Offshore wind farms are widely considered to become a cornerstone of energy transition for securing the energy supply and tackling climate change simultaneously. But recent developments have demonstrated that offshore wind farms are far from being conflict-free, evoking confrontations with other...... stakeholder interests. Drawing on comparative case studies in Scotland and Germany, this paper addresses and explores various conflict lines emerging from the installation of offshore wind farms and contesting local community interests and concerns. Local resistance against wind farms opens up a vast debate...... explanations due to obscuring underlying rationales. By going beyond the stigmatisation of NIMBYism, the notion of space-related conflicts is intended to turn the attention towards conflicting interests and values that are aimed at space. This does not imply that such interests can be simply located...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Heros Augusto Santos Lobo
2012-04-01
Full Text Available The general theory of systems is based in the integrated analysis of the spatiotemporal relations among the components, the system matrix and also the arising processes. In tourist systems, the current studies are focused on the description of its components and in some of its interaction relationships. The present contribution focuses on the processes between the components and the matrix of the tourist systems, considering the inherent complexity of open systems, its homeostasis and entropy in function of the carrying capacity of processing the received inputs, and also some questions linked to the steady state, the self-maintenance and the collapse of tourist system generated by structural-deterministic or stochastic causes. In the final considerations, the low similarity of the processes developed in different tourist systems and also in different spatiotemporal conditions in the same system are raised, highlighting the practical impossibility of universal models generation to the tourist systems.
Simplified propagation of standard uncertainties
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shull, A.H.
1997-01-01
An essential part of any measurement control program is adequate knowledge of the uncertainties of the measurement system standards. Only with an estimate of the standards'' uncertainties can one determine if the standard is adequate for its intended use or can one calculate the total uncertainty of the measurement process. Purchased standards usually have estimates of uncertainty on their certificates. However, when standards are prepared and characterized by a laboratory, variance propagation is required to estimate the uncertainty of the standard. Traditional variance propagation typically involves tedious use of partial derivatives, unfriendly software and the availability of statistical expertise. As a result, the uncertainty of prepared standards is often not determined or determined incorrectly. For situations meeting stated assumptions, easier shortcut methods of estimation are now available which eliminate the need for partial derivatives and require only a spreadsheet or calculator. A system of simplifying the calculations by dividing into subgroups of absolute and relative uncertainties is utilized. These methods also incorporate the International Standards Organization (ISO) concepts for combining systematic and random uncertainties as published in their Guide to the Expression of Measurement Uncertainty. Details of the simplified methods and examples of their use are included in the paper
Uncertainty Quantification of CFD Data Generated for a Model Scramjet Isolator Flowfield
Baurle, R. A.; Axdahl, E. L.
2017-01-01
Computational fluid dynamics is now considered to be an indispensable tool for the design and development of scramjet engine components. Unfortunately, the quantification of uncertainties is rarely addressed with anything other than sensitivity studies, so the degree of confidence associated with the numerical results remains exclusively with the subject matter expert that generated them. This practice must be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification process for computational fluid dynamics to play an expanded role in the system design, development, and flight certification process. Given the limitations of current hypersonic ground test facilities, this expanded role is believed to be a requirement by some in the hypersonics community if scramjet engines are to be given serious consideration as a viable propulsion system. The present effort describes a simple, relatively low cost, nonintrusive approach to uncertainty quantification that includes the basic ingredients required to handle both aleatoric (random) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) sources of uncertainty. The nonintrusive nature of the approach allows the computational fluid dynamicist to perform the uncertainty quantification with the flow solver treated as a "black box". Moreover, a large fraction of the process can be automated, allowing the uncertainty assessment to be readily adapted into the engineering design and development workflow. In the present work, the approach is applied to a model scramjet isolator problem where the desire is to validate turbulence closure models in the presence of uncertainty. In this context, the relevant uncertainty sources are determined and accounted for to allow the analyst to delineate turbulence model-form errors from other sources of uncertainty associated with the simulation of the facility flow.
Uncertainty enabled Sensor Observation Services
Cornford, Dan; Williams, Matthew; Bastin, Lucy
2010-05-01
Almost all observations of reality are contaminated with errors, which introduce uncertainties into the actual observation result. Such uncertainty is often held to be a data quality issue, and quantification of this uncertainty is essential for the principled exploitation of the observations. Many existing systems treat data quality in a relatively ad-hoc manner, however if the observation uncertainty is a reliable estimate of the error on the observation with respect to reality then knowledge of this uncertainty enables optimal exploitation of the observations in further processes, or decision making. We would argue that the most natural formalism for expressing uncertainty is Bayesian probability theory. In this work we show how the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Observation Service can be implemented to enable the support of explicit uncertainty about observations. We show how the UncertML candidate standard is used to provide a rich and flexible representation of uncertainty in this context. We illustrate this on a data set of user contributed weather data where the INTAMAP interpolation Web Processing Service is used to help estimate the uncertainty on the observations of unknown quality, using observations with known uncertainty properties. We then go on to discuss the implications of uncertainty for a range of existing Open Geospatial Consortium standards including SWE common and Observations and Measurements. We discuss the difficult decisions in the design of the UncertML schema and its relation and usage within existing standards and show various options. We conclude with some indications of the likely future directions for UncertML in the context of Open Geospatial Consortium services.
Entropic formulation of the uncertainty principle for the number and annihilation operators
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rastegin, Alexey E
2011-01-01
An entropic approach to formulating uncertainty relations for the number-annihilation pair is considered. We construct some normal operator that traces the annihilation operator as well as commuting quadratures with a complete system of common eigenfunctions. Expanding the measured wave function with respect to them, one obtains a relevant probability distribution. Another distribution is naturally generated by measuring the number operator. Due to the Riesz-Thorin theorem, there exists a nontrivial inequality between corresponding functionals of the above distributions. We find the bound in this inequality and further derive uncertainty relations in terms of both the Rényi and Tsallis entropies. Entropic uncertainty relations for a continuous distribution as well as relations for a discretized one are presented. (comment)
Uncertainty Analyses and Strategy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kevin Coppersmith
2001-01-01
performance difficult. Likewise, a demonstration of the magnitude of conservatisms in the dose estimates that result from conservative inputs is difficult to determine. To respond to these issues, the DOE explored the significance of uncertainties and the magnitude of conservatisms in the SSPA Volumes 1 and 2 (BSC 2001 [DIRS 155950]; BSC 2001 [DIRS 154659]). The three main goals of this report are: (1) To briefly summarize and consolidate the discussion of much of the work that has been done over the past few years to evaluate, clarify, and improve the representation of uncertainties in the TSPA and performance projections for a potential repository. This report does not contain any new analyses of those uncertainties, but it summarizes in one place the main findings of that work. (2) To develop a strategy for how uncertainties may be handled in the TSPA and supporting analyses and models to support a License Application, should the site be recommended. It should be noted that the strategy outlined in this report is based on current information available to DOE. The strategy may be modified pending receipt of additional pertinent information, such as the Yucca Mountain Review Plan. (3) To discuss issues related to communication about uncertainties, and propose some approaches the DOE may use in the future to improve how it communicates uncertainty in its models and performance assessments to decision-makers and to technical audiences
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xu Xingwen; Di Haiting; Zhu Jun; Shi Jian
2011-01-01
Objective: To compare the occurrence of complications between conventional self-expandable metal stent and internal irradiation stent insertion in treating patients with advanced esophageal carcinomas. Methods: A total of 32 patients with advanced esophageal carcinoma were randomly divided into irradiation stent group (n=15) and conventional stent group (n=17). Internal irradiation stent loaded with 125 I seeds was employed in patients of irradiation stent group, while conventional self-expandable metal stent was used in patients of conventional stent group. After the treatment, clinical follow-up was regularly conducted. Postoperative complications such as fever, severe chest pain, cough, esophageal perforation, pneumonia, hemorrhage, stent migration and restenosis, etc. were observed. Results: No significant difference in the occurrence of fever, severe chest pain, esophageal perforation and hemorrhage existed between the two groups (P>0.05). The difference in the occurrence of long-term complications such as stent migration or restenosis between the two groups was out statistically significant (P>0.05). However, the restenosis in irradiation stent group occurred obviously much later than that in conventional stent group. Conclusion: For the treatment of advanced esophageal carcinomas, the insertion of internal irradiation esophageal stent is safe. It dose not increase the incidence of postoperative complications. Therefore, it is worth popularizing this technique in clinical practice. (authors)
Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Shachter, RD; Henrion, M; Lemmer, JF
1990-01-01
This volume, like its predecessors, reflects the cutting edge of research on the automation of reasoning under uncertainty.A more pragmatic emphasis is evident, for although some papers address fundamental issues, the majority address practical issues. Topics include the relations between alternative formalisms (including possibilistic reasoning), Dempster-Shafer belief functions, non-monotonic reasoning, Bayesian and decision theoretic schemes, and new inference techniques for belief nets. New techniques are applied to important problems in medicine, vision, robotics, and natural language und
Uncertainty in relative cost investigation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bunn, D.; Viahos, K.
1989-01-01
One of the consequences of the privatization of the Central Electricity Generating Board has been a weakening of the economic case for nuclear generation over coal. Nuclear has higher capital, but lower operating costs than coal and is therefore favoured in capital budgeting by discounting at lower rates of return. In the Sizewell case (in 1987), discounting at the public sector rate of 5 per cent favoured nuclear. However, the private sector will require higher rates of return, thus rendering nuclear less attractive. Hence the imposition by the government of a diversity constraint on the privatized industry to ensure that contracts are made for a minimum fraction of non-fossil (essentially nuclear) energy. An electricity capacity planning model was developed to estimate the costs of imposing various non-fossil energy constraints on the planning decision of a privatized electricity supply industry, as a function of various discount rates. Using a large-scale linear programming technique, the model optimizes over a 50 year horizon the schedule of installation, and mix of generating capacity, both with and without a minimum non-fossil constraint. The conclusion is that the opportunity cost of diversity may be a complex joint substation of more than one type of plant (eg coal and gas) depending on the discount rate. (author)
Using Options to Manage Dynamic Uncertainty in Acquisition Projects
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Ceylan, B. K; Ford, David N
2002-01-01
Uncertainty in acquisition projects and environments can degrade performance. Traditional project planning, management tools, and methods can effectively deal with uncertainties in relatively stable environments...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carli, L; Cantatore, A; De Chiffre, L; Genta, G; Barbato, G; Levi, R
2011-01-01
3D-SEM is a method, based on the stereophotogrammetry technique, which obtains three-dimensional topographic reconstructions starting typically from two SEM images, called the stereo-pair. In this work, a theoretical uncertainty evaluation of the stereo-pair technique, according to GUM (Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement), was carried out, considering 3D-SEM reconstructions of a wire gauge with a reference diameter of 250 µm. Starting from the more commonly used tilting strategy, one based on the item rotation inside the SEM chamber was also adopted. The latter enables multiple-view reconstructions of the cylindrical item under consideration. Uncertainty evaluation was performed starting from a modified version of the Piazzesi equation, enabling the calculation of the z-coordinate from a given stereo-pair. The metrological characteristics of each input variable have been taken into account and a SEM stage calibration has been performed. Uncertainty tables for the cases of tilt and rotation were then produced, leading to the calculation of expanded uncertainty. For the case of rotation, the largest uncertainty contribution resulted to be the rotational angle; however, for the case of tilt it resulted to be the pixel size. A relative expanded uncertainty equal to 5% and 4% was obtained for the case of rotation and tilt, respectively
Stereo-particle image velocimetry uncertainty quantification
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bhattacharya, Sayantan; Vlachos, Pavlos P; Charonko, John J
2017-01-01
Particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements are subject to multiple elemental error sources and thus estimating overall measurement uncertainty is challenging. Recent advances have led to a posteriori uncertainty estimation methods for planar two-component PIV. However, no complete methodology exists for uncertainty quantification in stereo PIV. In the current work, a comprehensive framework is presented to quantify the uncertainty stemming from stereo registration error and combine it with the underlying planar velocity uncertainties. The disparity in particle locations of the dewarped images is used to estimate the positional uncertainty of the world coordinate system, which is then propagated to the uncertainty in the calibration mapping function coefficients. Next, the calibration uncertainty is combined with the planar uncertainty fields of the individual cameras through an uncertainty propagation equation and uncertainty estimates are obtained for all three velocity components. The methodology was tested with synthetic stereo PIV data for different light sheet thicknesses, with and without registration error, and also validated with an experimental vortex ring case from 2014 PIV challenge. Thorough sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the relative impact of the various parameters to the overall uncertainty. The results suggest that in absence of any disparity, the stereo PIV uncertainty prediction method is more sensitive to the planar uncertainty estimates than to the angle uncertainty, although the latter is not negligible for non-zero disparity. Overall the presented uncertainty quantification framework showed excellent agreement between the error and uncertainty RMS values for both the synthetic and the experimental data and demonstrated reliable uncertainty prediction coverage. This stereo PIV uncertainty quantification framework provides the first comprehensive treatment on the subject and potentially lays foundations applicable to volumetric
Hurlbert, Margot; Gupta, Joyeeta
2016-02-01
As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
Physical and Model Uncertainty for Fatigue Design of Composite Material
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
The main aim of the present report is to establish stochastic models for the uncertainties related to fatigue design of composite materials. The uncertainties considered are the physical uncertainty related to the static and fatigue strength and the model uncertainty related to Miners rule...
Gentes, Emily L; Ruscio, Ayelet Meron
2011-08-01
Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) has been suggested to reflect a specific risk factor for generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), but there have been no systematic attempts to evaluate the specificity of IU to GAD. This meta-analysis examined the cross-sectional association of IU with symptoms of GAD, major depressive disorder (MDD), and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Random effects analyses were conducted for two common definitions of IU, one that has predominated in studies of GAD (56 effect sizes) and another that has been favored in studies of OCD (29 effect sizes). Using the definition of IU developed for GAD, IU shared a mean correlation of .57 with GAD, .53 with MDD, and .50 with OCD. Using the alternate definition developed for OCD, IU shared a mean correlation of .46 with MDD and .42 with OCD, with no studies available for GAD. Post-hoc significance tests revealed that IU was more strongly related to GAD than to OCD when the GAD-specific definition of IU was used. No other differences were found in the magnitude of associations between IU and the three syndromes. We discuss implications of these findings for models of shared and specific features of emotional disorders and for future research efforts. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Some illustrative examples of model uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bier, V.M.
1994-01-01
In this paper, we first discuss the view of model uncertainty proposed by Apostolakis. We then present several illustrative examples related to model uncertainty, some of which are not well handled by this formalism. Thus, Apostolakis' approach seems to be well suited to describing some types of model uncertainty, but not all. Since a comprehensive approach for characterizing and quantifying model uncertainty is not yet available, it is hoped that the examples presented here will service as a springboard for further discussion
Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Winkler, R.L.
1994-01-01
Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents sediment size prediction uncertainty from a sediment spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also...
Silicon microfabricated beam expander
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Othman, A.; Ibrahim, M. N.; Hamzah, I. H.; Sulaiman, A. A.; Ain, M. F.
2015-01-01
The feasibility design and development methods of silicon microfabricated beam expander are described. Silicon bulk micromachining fabrication technology is used in producing features of the structure. A high-precision complex 3-D shape of the expander can be formed by exploiting the predictable anisotropic wet etching characteristics of single-crystal silicon in aqueous Potassium-Hydroxide (KOH) solution. The beam-expander consist of two elements, a micromachined silicon reflector chamber and micro-Fresnel zone plate. The micro-Fresnel element is patterned using lithographic methods. The reflector chamber element has a depth of 40 µm, a diameter of 15 mm and gold-coated surfaces. The impact on the depth, diameter of the chamber and absorption for improved performance are discussed
Silicon microfabricated beam expander
Othman, A.; Ibrahim, M. N.; Hamzah, I. H.; Sulaiman, A. A.; Ain, M. F.
2015-03-01
The feasibility design and development methods of silicon microfabricated beam expander are described. Silicon bulk micromachining fabrication technology is used in producing features of the structure. A high-precision complex 3-D shape of the expander can be formed by exploiting the predictable anisotropic wet etching characteristics of single-crystal silicon in aqueous Potassium-Hydroxide (KOH) solution. The beam-expander consist of two elements, a micromachined silicon reflector chamber and micro-Fresnel zone plate. The micro-Fresnel element is patterned using lithographic methods. The reflector chamber element has a depth of 40 µm, a diameter of 15 mm and gold-coated surfaces. The impact on the depth, diameter of the chamber and absorption for improved performance are discussed.
Silicon microfabricated beam expander
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Othman, A., E-mail: aliman@ppinang.uitm.edu.my; Ibrahim, M. N.; Hamzah, I. H.; Sulaiman, A. A. [Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi MARA Malaysia, 40450, Shah Alam, Selangor (Malaysia); Ain, M. F. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Engineering Campus, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Seri Ampangan, 14300,Nibong Tebal, Pulau Pinang (Malaysia)
2015-03-30
The feasibility design and development methods of silicon microfabricated beam expander are described. Silicon bulk micromachining fabrication technology is used in producing features of the structure. A high-precision complex 3-D shape of the expander can be formed by exploiting the predictable anisotropic wet etching characteristics of single-crystal silicon in aqueous Potassium-Hydroxide (KOH) solution. The beam-expander consist of two elements, a micromachined silicon reflector chamber and micro-Fresnel zone plate. The micro-Fresnel element is patterned using lithographic methods. The reflector chamber element has a depth of 40 µm, a diameter of 15 mm and gold-coated surfaces. The impact on the depth, diameter of the chamber and absorption for improved performance are discussed.
Deterministic uncertainty analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Worley, B.A.
1987-12-01
This paper presents a deterministic uncertainty analysis (DUA) method for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs compared to conventional statistical analysis. The method is based upon the availability of derivative and sensitivity data such as that calculated using the well known direct or adjoint sensitivity analysis techniques. Formation of response surfaces using derivative data and the propagation of input probability distributions are discussed relative to their role in the DUA method. A sample problem that models the flow of water through a borehole is used as a basis to compare the cumulative distribution function of the flow rate as calculated by the standard statistical methods and the DUA method. Propogation of uncertainties by the DUA method is compared for ten cases in which the number of reference model runs was varied from one to ten. The DUA method gives a more accurate representation of the true cumulative distribution of the flow rate based upon as few as two model executions compared to fifty model executions using a statistical approach. 16 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pawel, David [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Leggett, Richard Wayne [ORNL; Eckerman, Keith F [ORNL; Nelson, Christopher [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
2007-01-01
Federal Guidance Report No. 13 (FGR 13) provides risk coefficients for estimation of the risk of cancer due to low-level exposure to each of more than 800 radionuclides. Uncertainties in risk coefficients were quantified in FGR 13 for 33 cases (exposure to each of 11 radionuclides by each of three exposure pathways) on the basis of sensitivity analyses in which various combinations of plausible biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk models were used to generate alternative risk coefficients. The present report updates the uncertainty analysis in FGR 13 for the cases of inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides and expands the analysis to all radionuclides addressed in that report. The analysis indicates that most risk coefficients for inhalation or ingestion of radionuclides are determined within a factor of 5 or less by current information. That is, application of alternate plausible biokinetic and dosimetric models and radiation risk models (based on the linear, no-threshold hypothesis with an adjustment for the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor) is unlikely to change these coefficients by more than a factor of 5. In this analysis the assessed uncertainty in the radiation risk model was found to be the main determinant of the uncertainty category for most risk coefficients, but conclusions concerning the relative contributions of risk and dose models to the total uncertainty in a risk coefficient may depend strongly on the method of assessing uncertainties in the risk model.
Sampling-based nuclear data uncertainty quantification for continuous energy Monte-Carlo codes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhu, T.
2015-01-01
nuclear data uncertainty format. The first stage of NUSS development focuses on applying simple random sampling (SRS) algorithm for uncertainty quantification. The effect of combining multigroup and ACE format on the propagated nuclear data uncertainties is assessed. It is found that the number of energy groups has minor impact on the precision of κ_e_f_f uncertainty as long as the group structure reflects the neutron flux spectrum. Successful verification of the NUSS tool for propagating nuclear data uncertainties through MCNPX and quantifying MCNPX output parameter uncertainties is obtained. The second stage of NUSS development is motivated by the need for an efficient sensitivity analysis methodology based on global sampling and coupled with MCNPX. For complex systems, the computing time for obtaining a breakdown of total uncertainty contributions by individual inputs becomes prohibitive when many MCNPX runs are required. The capability of determining simultaneously the total uncertainty and individual nuclear data uncertainty contributions is thus researched and implemented into the NUSS-RF tool. It is based on the Random Balance Design algorithm and is validated by three mathematical test cases for both linear and nonlinear models and correlated inputs. NUSS-RF is then applied to demonstrate the efficient decomposition of total uncertainty by individual nuclear data. However an attempt to decompose total uncertainty into individual contributions using the conventional S/U method shows different decomposition results when the inputs are correlated. The investigation and findings of this PhD work are valuable because of the introduction of global sensitivity analysis into the existing repertoire of nuclear data uncertainty quantification methods. The NUSS tool is expected to be useful for expanding the types of MCNPX-related applications, such as an upgrade to the current PSI criticality safety assessment methodology for Swiss application, for which nuclear data
Sampling-based nuclear data uncertainty quantification for continuous energy Monte-Carlo codes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhu, T.
2015-07-01
nuclear data uncertainty format. The first stage of NUSS development focuses on applying simple random sampling (SRS) algorithm for uncertainty quantification. The effect of combining multigroup and ACE format on the propagated nuclear data uncertainties is assessed. It is found that the number of energy groups has minor impact on the precision of κ{sub eff} uncertainty as long as the group structure reflects the neutron flux spectrum. Successful verification of the NUSS tool for propagating nuclear data uncertainties through MCNPX and quantifying MCNPX output parameter uncertainties is obtained. The second stage of NUSS development is motivated by the need for an efficient sensitivity analysis methodology based on global sampling and coupled with MCNPX. For complex systems, the computing time for obtaining a breakdown of total uncertainty contributions by individual inputs becomes prohibitive when many MCNPX runs are required. The capability of determining simultaneously the total uncertainty and individual nuclear data uncertainty contributions is thus researched and implemented into the NUSS-RF tool. It is based on the Random Balance Design algorithm and is validated by three mathematical test cases for both linear and nonlinear models and correlated inputs. NUSS-RF is then applied to demonstrate the efficient decomposition of total uncertainty by individual nuclear data. However an attempt to decompose total uncertainty into individual contributions using the conventional S/U method shows different decomposition results when the inputs are correlated. The investigation and findings of this PhD work are valuable because of the introduction of global sensitivity analysis into the existing repertoire of nuclear data uncertainty quantification methods. The NUSS tool is expected to be useful for expanding the types of MCNPX-related applications, such as an upgrade to the current PSI criticality safety assessment methodology for Swiss application, for which nuclear data
Uncertainty in social dilemmas
Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de
2007-01-01
This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size uncertainty). Several researchers have therefore asked themselves the question as to how such uncertainty influences people’s choice behavior. These researchers have repeatedly concluded that uncertainty...
Refinement of the concept of uncertainty.
Penrod, J
2001-04-01
To analyse the conceptual maturity of uncertainty; to develop an expanded theoretical definition of uncertainty; to advance the concept using methods of concept refinement; and to analyse congruency with the conceptualization of uncertainty presented in the theory of hope, enduring, and suffering. Uncertainty is of concern in nursing as people experience complex life events surrounding health. In an earlier nursing study that linked the concepts of hope, enduring, and suffering into a single theoretical scheme, a state best described as 'uncertainty' arose. This study was undertaken to explore how this conceptualization fit with the scientific literature on uncertainty and to refine the concept. Initially, a concept analysis using advanced methods described by Morse, Hupcey, Mitcham and colleagues was completed. The concept was determined to be partially mature. A theoretical definition was derived and techniques of concept refinement using the literature as data were applied. The refined concept was found to be congruent with the concept of uncertainty that had emerged in the model of hope, enduring and suffering. Further investigation is needed to explore the extent of probabilistic reasoning and the effects of confidence and control on feelings of uncertainty and certainty.
Entropy in an expanding universe
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Frautschi, S.
1982-01-01
The question of how the observed evolution of organized structures from initial chaos in the expanding universe can be reconciled with the laws of statistical mechanics is studied, with emphasis on effects of the expansion and gravity. Some major sources of entropy increase are listed. An expanding causal region is defined in which the entropy, though increasing, tends to fall further and further behind its maximum possible value, thus allowing for the development of order. The related questions of whether entropy will continue increasing without limit in the future, and whether such increase in the form of Hawking radiation or radiation from positronium might enable life to maintain itself permanently, are considered. Attempts to find a scheme for preserving life based on solid structures fail because events such as quantum tunneling recurrently disorganize matter on a very long but fixed time scale, whereas all energy sources slow down progressively in an expanding universe. However, there remains hope that other modes of life capable of maintaining themselves permanently can be found
Expanding the HAWC Observatory
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mori, Johanna [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2016-08-17
The High Altitude Water Cherenkov Gamma-Ray Observatory is expanding its current array of 300 water tanks to include 350 outrigger tanks to increase sensitivity to gamma rays above 10 TeV. This involves creating and testing hardware with which to build the new tanks, including photomultiplier tubes, high voltage supply units, and flash analog to digital converters. My responsibilities this summer included preparing, testing and calibrating that equipment.
Magnusson, Bertil; Ossowicki, Haakan; Rienitz, Olaf; Theodorsson, Elvar
2012-05-01
Healthcare laboratories are increasingly joining into larger laboratory organizations encompassing several physical laboratories. This caters for important new opportunities for re-defining the concept of a 'laboratory' to encompass all laboratories and measurement methods measuring the same measurand for a population of patients. In order to make measurement results, comparable bias should be minimized or eliminated and measurement uncertainty properly evaluated for all methods used for a particular patient population. The measurement as well as diagnostic uncertainty can be evaluated from internal and external quality control results using GUM principles. In this paper the uncertainty evaluations are described in detail using only two main components, within-laboratory reproducibility and uncertainty of the bias component according to a Nordtest guideline. The evaluation is exemplified for the determination of creatinine in serum for a conglomerate of laboratories both expressed in absolute units (μmol/L) and relative (%). An expanded measurement uncertainty of 12 μmol/L associated with concentrations of creatinine below 120 μmol/L and of 10% associated with concentrations above 120 μmol/L was estimated. The diagnostic uncertainty encompasses both measurement uncertainty and biological variation, and can be estimated for a single value and for a difference. This diagnostic uncertainty for the difference for two samples from the same patient was determined to be 14 μmol/L associated with concentrations of creatinine below 100 μmol/L and 14 % associated with concentrations above 100 μmol/L.
Uncertainty Characterization of Reactor Vessel Fracture Toughness
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li, Fei; Modarres, Mohammad
2002-01-01
To perform fracture mechanics analysis of reactor vessel, fracture toughness (K Ic ) at various temperatures would be necessary. In a best estimate approach, K Ic uncertainties resulting from both lack of sufficient knowledge and randomness in some of the variables of K Ic must be characterized. Although it may be argued that there is only one type of uncertainty, which is lack of perfect knowledge about the subject under study, as a matter of practice K Ic uncertainties can be divided into two types: aleatory and epistemic. Aleatory uncertainty is related to uncertainty that is very difficult to reduce, if not impossible; epistemic uncertainty, on the other hand, can be practically reduced. Distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties facilitates decision-making under uncertainty and allows for proper propagation of uncertainties in the computation process. Typically, epistemic uncertainties representing, for example, parameters of a model are sampled (to generate a 'snapshot', single-value of the parameters), but the totality of aleatory uncertainties is carried through the calculation as available. In this paper a description of an approach to account for these two types of uncertainties associated with K Ic has been provided. (authors)
Pharmacological Fingerprints of Contextual Uncertainty.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Louise Marshall
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Successful interaction with the environment requires flexible updating of our beliefs about the world. By estimating the likelihood of future events, it is possible to prepare appropriate actions in advance and execute fast, accurate motor responses. According to theoretical proposals, agents track the variability arising from changing environments by computing various forms of uncertainty. Several neuromodulators have been linked to uncertainty signalling, but comprehensive empirical characterisation of their relative contributions to perceptual belief updating, and to the selection of motor responses, is lacking. Here we assess the roles of noradrenaline, acetylcholine, and dopamine within a single, unified computational framework of uncertainty. Using pharmacological interventions in a sample of 128 healthy human volunteers and a hierarchical Bayesian learning model, we characterise the influences of noradrenergic, cholinergic, and dopaminergic receptor antagonism on individual computations of uncertainty during a probabilistic serial reaction time task. We propose that noradrenaline influences learning of uncertain events arising from unexpected changes in the environment. In contrast, acetylcholine balances attribution of uncertainty to chance fluctuations within an environmental context, defined by a stable set of probabilistic associations, or to gross environmental violations following a contextual switch. Dopamine supports the use of uncertainty representations to engender fast, adaptive responses.
Zubritsky, Cynthia; Abbott, Katherine M.; Hirschman, Karen B.; Bowles, Kathryn H.; Foust, Janice B.; Naylor, Mary D.
2013-01-01
For older adults receiving long-term services and supports (LTSS), health-related quality of life (HRQoL) has emerged as a critical construct to examine because of its focus on components of well-being, which are affected by progressive changes in health status, health care, and social support. HRQoL is a health-focused quality of life (QOL)…
Propagation of dynamic measurement uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hessling, J P
2011-01-01
The time-dependent measurement uncertainty has been evaluated in a number of recent publications, starting from a known uncertain dynamic model. This could be defined as the 'downward' propagation of uncertainty from the model to the targeted measurement. The propagation of uncertainty 'upward' from the calibration experiment to a dynamic model traditionally belongs to system identification. The use of different representations (time, frequency, etc) is ubiquitous in dynamic measurement analyses. An expression of uncertainty in dynamic measurements is formulated for the first time in this paper independent of representation, joining upward as well as downward propagation. For applications in metrology, the high quality of the characterization may be prohibitive for any reasonably large and robust model to pass the whiteness test. This test is therefore relaxed by not directly requiring small systematic model errors in comparison to the randomness of the characterization. Instead, the systematic error of the dynamic model is propagated to the uncertainty of the measurand, analogously but differently to how stochastic contributions are propagated. The pass criterion of the model is thereby transferred from the identification to acceptance of the total accumulated uncertainty of the measurand. This increases the relevance of the test of the model as it relates to its final use rather than the quality of the calibration. The propagation of uncertainty hence includes the propagation of systematic model errors. For illustration, the 'upward' propagation of uncertainty is applied to determine if an appliance box is damaged in an earthquake experiment. In this case, relaxation of the whiteness test was required to reach a conclusive result
Goreczny, Sebastian; Qureshi, Shakeel A; Rosenthal, Eric; Krasemann, Thomas; Nassar, Mohamed S; Anderson, David R; Morgan, Gareth J
2017-07-01
We aimed to compare the procedural and mid-term performance of a specifically designed self-expanding stent with balloon-expandable stents in patients undergoing hybrid palliation for hypoplastic left heart syndrome and its variants. The lack of specifically designed stents has led to off-label use of coronary, biliary, or peripheral stents in the neonatal ductus arteriosus. Recently, a self-expanding stent, specifically designed for use in hypoplastic left heart syndrome, has become available. We carried out a retrospective cohort comparison of 69 neonates who underwent hybrid ductal stenting with balloon-expandable and self-expanding stents from December, 2005 to July, 2014. In total, 43 balloon-expandable stents were implanted in 41 neonates and more recently 47 self-expanding stents in 28 neonates. In the balloon-expandable stents group, stent-related complications occurred in nine patients (22%), compared with one patient in the self-expanding stent group (4%). During follow-up, percutaneous re-intervention related to the ductal stent was performed in five patients (17%) in the balloon-expandable stent group and seven patients (28%) in self-expanding stents group. Hybrid ductal stenting with self-expanding stents produced favourable results when compared with the results obtained with balloon-expandable stents. Immediate additional interventions and follow-up re-interventions were similar in both groups with complications more common in those with balloon-expandable stents.
Instrument uncertainty predictions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Coutts, D.A.
1991-07-01
The accuracy of measurements and correlations should normally be provided for most experimental activities. The uncertainty is a measure of the accuracy of a stated value or equation. The uncertainty term reflects a combination of instrument errors, modeling limitations, and phenomena understanding deficiencies. This report provides several methodologies to estimate an instrument's uncertainty when used in experimental work. Methods are shown to predict both the pretest and post-test uncertainty
Uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. Nilsson
2007-09-01
Full Text Available Uncertainty in conceptual model structure and in environmental data is of essential interest when dealing with uncertainty in water resources management. To make quantification of uncertainty possible is it necessary to identify and characterise the uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data. This paper discusses a range of available techniques to describe the uncertainty related to geological model structure and scale of support. Literature examples on uncertainty in hydrogeological variables such as saturated hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, specific storage, effective porosity and dispersivity are given. Field data usually have a spatial and temporal scale of support that is different from the one on which numerical models for water resources management operate. Uncertainty in hydrogeological data variables is characterised and assessed within the methodological framework of the HarmoniRiB classification.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gürhan UYSAL
2008-01-01
Full Text Available This study explores the impact of resource uncertainty and relational exchange between customer and supplier. Resource uncertainty involves factors as resource concentration, resource availability uncertainty and resource interconnectedness. The necessary data has been collected from 134 companies in Marmara Region through a questionnaire. This study, therefore, adopts factor, correlation and regression analyses to test impact of resource uncertainty on relational exchange. Data analysis reveals that resource concentration and resource availability uncertainty do not have an impact on relational exchange between customer and supplier and resource interconnectedness influences relational exchange. Furthermore, One-way Anova tests demonstrate that resource concentration, resource availability uncertainty and resource interconnectedness do not significantly differentiate on control variables such as industry, foundation year, revenues and number of employees.
Lew, Kristi
2011-01-01
People have always been fascinated with the stars above and the universe that contains them. Over the years, astronomers have developed numerous theories to explain how the universe began, how it works, and what its ultimate fate will be. But all of the scientists' questions are far from answered. The Expanding Universe goes beyond the creation of the universe to explain how scientists think the universe works, grows, and changes, including what great thinkers Isaac Newton and Albert Einstein had to say about its fate. Readers will also learn about how researchers are slowly shedding light on
Kaltenhauser, Kristin
2015-01-01
Expanding your horizons is a bi-annual “Science Day” for girls aged 11 to 14, held at the University of Geneva on 14 November. The girls had the opportunity to take part in hands-on workshops held by local professional women in the field of science, mathematics, engineering and technology. For the fourth time, CERN was part of this event, offering three workshops as well as a booth at the Discovery Fair, including Higgnite, an interactive visualization of the Higgs Field.
Farley, Jennifer L; Whipple, Ellen E
2017-09-01
The expansion of infant mental health (IMH) to at-risk preschoolers and their families has contributed to the integration of relational play therapy (RPT) into IMH treatment services for this population. Integrating RPT allows access to specialized play and expressive techniques specific to preschool and family development, which improves the clinical ability to meet the multiple and complex needs of at-risk parent-child dyads and their families. This article will examine the RPT literature and explore the similarities and differences between IMH and RPT. In addition, two case studies will highlight a five-phase, integrative clinical-treatment process and provide insight into how IMH clinicians are integrating RPT models and maintaining adherence to the IMH treatment approach. © 2017 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.
Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.
2005-01-01
Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)
Investment, regulation, and uncertainty
Smyth, Stuart J; McDonald, Jillian; Falck-Zepeda, Jose
2014-01-01
As with any technological innovation, time refines the technology, improving upon the original version of the innovative product. The initial GM crops had single traits for either herbicide tolerance or insect resistance. Current varieties have both of these traits stacked together and in many cases other abiotic and biotic traits have also been stacked. This innovation requires investment. While this is relatively straight forward, certain conditions need to exist such that investments can be facilitated. The principle requirement for investment is that regulatory frameworks render consistent and timely decisions. If the certainty of regulatory outcomes weakens, the potential for changes in investment patterns increases. This article provides a summary background to the leading plant breeding technologies that are either currently being used to develop new crop varieties or are in the pipeline to be applied to plant breeding within the next few years. Challenges for existing regulatory systems are highlighted. Utilizing an option value approach from investment literature, an assessment of uncertainty regarding the regulatory approval for these varying techniques is undertaken. This research highlights which technology development options have the greatest degree of uncertainty and hence, which ones might be expected to see an investment decline. PMID:24499745
Worry, Intolerance of Uncertainty, and Statistics Anxiety
Williams, Amanda S.
2013-01-01
Statistics anxiety is a problem for most graduate students. This study investigates the relationship between intolerance of uncertainty, worry, and statistics anxiety. Intolerance of uncertainty was significantly related to worry, and worry was significantly related to three types of statistics anxiety. Six types of statistics anxiety were…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S Nian
2011-05-01
Full Text Available Introduction: Transplantation of an intact differentiated retinal pigment epithelial (RPE cell layer may provide a means to treat Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD. However, harvesting RPE cells can be a technically complicated procedure. Our current work aimed to prepare intact differentiated iris pigment epithelial (IPE cell layers, which are easy to obtain and have the same embryonic origin and similar properties as RPE cells, on ePTFE substrates for transplantation purposes to rescue deteriorated photoreceptors in AMD. Methods: IPE cells isolated from rat eyes were seeded on different substrates, including fibronectin n-heptylamine (HA ePTFE substrates, HA ePTFE substrates, ePTFE substrates and fibronectin tissue culture polystyrene (TCPS as control. Cell number and morphology were assessed at each time interval. The formation of tight junction was examined by immunostaining of junction proteins. Results: An obvious increasing trend of cell number was observed in IPE cells on fibronectin n-heptylamine (HA ePTFE substrate, exhibiting heavy pigmentation and epithelial morphology. At Day 28, tight junction formation was indicated by cell-cell junctional proteins along cell borders. Conclusion: Harvested IPE cells cultured on fibronectin HA-ePTFE substrates can differentiate and form a cell monolayer that may be suitable for transplantation.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Picel, K.C.
1995-01-01
Projected volumes of contaminated media and debris at US Department of Energy (DOE) environmental restoration sites that are potentially subject to the hazardous waste provisions of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act are needed to support programmatic planning. Such projections have been gathered in various surveys conducted under DOE's environmental restoration and waste management programs. It is expected that reducing uncertainty in the projections through review of existing site data and process knowledge and through further site characterization will result in substantially lowered projections. If promulgated, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Hazardous Waste Identification Rule would result in potentially even greater reductions in the projections when site conditions are reviewed under the provisions of the new rule. Reducing uncertainty in projections under current and future waste identification rules may be necessary to support effective remediation planning. Further characterization efforts that may be conducted should be designed to limit uncertainty in identifying volumes of wastes to the extent needed to support alternative selection and to minimize costs of remediation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Andres, T.H.
2002-05-01
This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Andres, T.H
2002-05-01
This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)
Uncertainty and Cognitive Control
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Faisal eMushtaq
2011-10-01
Full Text Available A growing trend of neuroimaging, behavioural and computational research has investigated the topic of outcome uncertainty in decision-making. Although evidence to date indicates that humans are very effective in learning to adapt to uncertain situations, the nature of the specific cognitive processes involved in the adaptation to uncertainty are still a matter of debate. In this article, we reviewed evidence suggesting that cognitive control processes are at the heart of uncertainty in decision-making contexts. Available evidence suggests that: (1 There is a strong conceptual overlap between the constructs of uncertainty and cognitive control; (2 There is a remarkable overlap between the neural networks associated with uncertainty and the brain networks subserving cognitive control; (3 The perception and estimation of uncertainty might play a key role in monitoring processes and the evaluation of the need for control; (4 Potential interactions between uncertainty and cognitive control might play a significant role in several affective disorders.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mawardi Bahri
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The continuous quaternion wavelet transform (CQWT is a generalization of the classical continuous wavelet transform within the context of quaternion algebra. First of all, we show that the directional quaternion Fourier transform (QFT uncertainty principle can be obtained using the component-wise QFT uncertainty principle. Based on this method, the directional QFT uncertainty principle using representation of polar coordinate form is easily derived. We derive a variation on uncertainty principle related to the QFT. We state that the CQWT of a quaternion function can be written in terms of the QFT and obtain a variation on uncertainty principle related to the CQWT. Finally, we apply the extended uncertainty principles and properties of the CQWT to establish logarithmic uncertainty principles related to generalized transform.
Bigelow Expandable Activity Module Project
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Bigelow Expandable Activity Module (BEAM) project is a NASA-industry partnership with Bigelow Aerospace (BA) that has developing the first human-rated expandable...
Tissue expander infections in children: look beyond the expander pocket.
Mason, A C; Davison, S P; Manders, E K
1999-11-01
Infection of the expander pocket is the most common complication encountered with soft-tissue expansion. It is usually due to direct inoculation with skin flora either at the time of expander insertion or from extrusion of the device. The authors report two cases of infection of tissue expanders in which the children had concomitant infected sites distant from the prosthesis. Etiological bacteria of common pediatric infections like otitis media and pharyngitis were cultured from the infected expander pocket, raising suspicion that translocation of the organism to the expander had occurred. Aggressive antibiotic treatment, removal of the prosthesis, and flap advancement is advocated.
Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?
Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert
2016-06-01
of experience. Two hundred forty-two (34%) members completed the survey. We found no differences between responders and nonresponders. Each survey item measured its own trait better than any of the other traits. Recognition of uncertainty (0.70) and confidence bias (0.75) had relatively high Cronbach alpha levels, meaning that the questions making up these traits are closely related and probably measure the same construct. This was lower for statistical understanding (0.48) and trust in the orthopaedic evidence base (0.37). Subsequently, combining each trait's individual questions, we calculated a 0 to 10 score for each trait. The mean recognition of uncertainty score was 3.2 ± 1.4. Recognition of uncertainty in daily practice did not vary by years in practice (0-5 years, 3.2 ± 1.3; 6-10 years, 2.9 ± 1.3; 11-20 years, 3.2 ± 1.4; 21-30 years, 3.3 ± 1.6 years; p = 0.51), but overconfidence bias did correlate with years in practice (0-5 years, 6.2 ± 1.4; 6-10 years, 7.1 ± 1.3; 11-20 years, 7.4 ± 1.4; 21-30 years, 7.1 ± 1.2 years; p < 0.001). Accounting for a potential interaction of variables using multivariable analysis, less recognition of uncertainty was independently but weakly associated with working in a multispecialty group compared with academic practice (β regression coefficient, -0.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.0 to -0.055; partial R(2), 0.021; p = 0.029), belief in God or any other deity/deities (β, -0.57; 95% CI, -1.0 to -0.11; partial R(2), 0.026; p = 0.015), greater confidence bias (β, -0.26; 95% CI, -0.37 to -0.14; partial R(2), 0.084; p < 0.001), and greater trust in the orthopaedic evidence base (β, -0.16; 95% CI, -0.26 to -0.058; partial R(2), 0.040; p = 0.002). Better statistical understanding was independently, and more strongly, associated with greater recognition of uncertainty (β, 0.25; 95% CI, 0.17-0.34; partial R(2), 0.13; p < 0.001). Our full model accounted for 29% of the variability in recognition of uncertainty (adjusted
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zank, Wolfgang
In this paper I try to explore whether the EU can go on expanding and thereby become culturally ever more diversified, and at the same retain its stability. The answer is, in principle, affirmative. Europe has always been much diversified, and therefore it is not possible to define a European...... identity in terms of particular cultural traditions. However, in spite of their diversity, the EU-member countries are united by their adherence to the principles of democracy, rule by law and human rights. Countries which do not share this basic consensus would not be accepted as members, nor is it likely...... that they would apply for it. An essential part is the willingness of member states to accept a reduction of national sovereignty on some important policy fields. The EU project is basically about lifting the principles of democracy and rule by law on the international level, most and foremost among the member...
Peacock, Harold B [Evans, GA; Imrich, Kenneth J [Grovetown, GA
2009-03-17
A sealing device that may expand more planar dimensions due to internal thermal expansion of a filler material. The sealing material is of a composition such that when desired environment temperatures and internal actuating pressures are reached, the sealing materials undergoes a permanent deformation. For metallic compounds, this permanent deformation occurs when the material enters the plastic deformation phase. Polymers, and other materials, may be using a sealing mechanism depending on the temperatures and corrosivity of the use. Internal pressures are generated by either rapid thermal expansion or material phase change and may include either liquid or solid to gas phase change, or in the gaseous state with significant pressure generation in accordance with the gas laws. Sealing material thickness and material composition may be used to selectively control geometric expansion of the seal such that expansion is limited to a specific facing and or geometric plane.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sanden, M.C.M. van den.
1991-01-01
This thesis concerns the fundamental aspects of an argon plasma expanding from a cascaded arc. This type of plasma is not only used for fundamental research but also for technologically orientated research on plasma deposition and plasma sources. The important characteristics of the plasma are a strong supersonic expansion in which the neutral particle and ion densities decrease three orders of magnitude, followed by a stationary shock front. After the shock front the plasma expands further subsonically. A part of this thesis is devoted to the discussion of a newly constructed combined Thomson-Rayleigh scattering set up. With this set up the electron density, the electron temperature and the neutral particle density are measured locally in the plasma for different conditions. In the analysis of the measured spectra weak coherent effects and the measured apparatus profile are included. The inaccuracies are small, ranging from 1 to 4 percent for the electron density and 2 to 6 percent for the electron temperature, depending on the plasma conditions. The inaccuracy of the neutral particle density determination is larger and ranges from 10 to 50 percent. The detection limits for the electron and neutral particle density are 7.10 17 m -3 and 1.10 20 m -3 respectively. A side path in this thesis is the derivation of the Saha equation for a two-temperature plasma. The reason for this derivation was the dispute in the literature about the correct form of this equation. In this thesis it is shown, from the correct extension of the second law of thermodynamics and from the non-equilibrium formalism of Zubarev, That in the limit of m e /m h ->0 the generalized Saha equation depends on the electron temperature only. (author). 221 refs.; 54 figs.; 13 tabs
Uncertainty in spatial planning proceedings
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aleš Mlakar
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Uncertainty is distinctive of spatial planning as it arises from the necessity to co-ordinate the various interests within the area, from the urgency of adopting spatial planning decisions, the complexity of the environment, physical space and society, addressing the uncertainty of the future and from the uncertainty of actually making the right decision. Response to uncertainty is a series of measures that mitigate the effects of uncertainty itself. These measures are based on two fundamental principles – standardization and optimization. The measures are related to knowledge enhancement and spatial planning comprehension, in the legal regulation of changes, in the existence of spatial planning as a means of different interests co-ordination, in the active planning and the constructive resolution of current spatial problems, in the integration of spatial planning and the environmental protection process, in the implementation of the analysis as the foundation of spatial planners activities, in the methods of thinking outside the parameters, in forming clear spatial concepts and in creating a transparent management spatial system and also in the enforcement the participatory processes.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Davis, C.B.
1987-08-01
The uncertainties of calculations of loss-of-feedwater transients at Davis-Besse Unit 1 were determined to address concerns of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relative to the effectiveness of feed and bleed cooling. Davis-Besse Unit 1 is a pressurized water reactor of the raised-loop Babcock and Wilcox design. A detailed, quality-assured RELAP5/MOD2 model of Davis-Besse was developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The model was used to perform an analysis of the loss-of-feedwater transient that occurred at Davis-Besse on June 9, 1985. A loss-of-feedwater transient followed by feed and bleed cooling was also calculated. The evaluation of uncertainty was based on the comparisons of calculations and data, comparisons of different calculations of the same transient, sensitivity calculations, and the propagation of the estimated uncertainty in initial and boundary conditions to the final calculated results
Addressing uncertainties in the ERICA Integrated Approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oughton, D.H.; Agueero, A.; Avila, R.; Brown, J.E.; Copplestone, D.; Gilek, M.
2008-01-01
Like any complex environmental problem, ecological risk assessment of the impacts of ionising radiation is confounded by uncertainty. At all stages, from problem formulation through to risk characterisation, the assessment is dependent on models, scenarios, assumptions and extrapolations. These include technical uncertainties related to the data used, conceptual uncertainties associated with models and scenarios, as well as social uncertainties such as economic impacts, the interpretation of legislation, and the acceptability of the assessment results to stakeholders. The ERICA Integrated Approach has been developed to allow an assessment of the risks of ionising radiation, and includes a number of methods that are intended to make the uncertainties and assumptions inherent in the assessment more transparent to users and stakeholders. Throughout its development, ERICA has recommended that assessors deal openly with the deeper dimensions of uncertainty and acknowledge that uncertainty is intrinsic to complex systems. Since the tool is based on a tiered approach, the approaches to dealing with uncertainty vary between the tiers, ranging from a simple, but highly conservative screening to a full probabilistic risk assessment including sensitivity analysis. This paper gives on overview of types of uncertainty that are manifest in ecological risk assessment and the ERICA Integrated Approach to dealing with some of these uncertainties
Model uncertainty and probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parry, G.W.
1994-01-01
This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example
Infrastructure Requirements for an Expanded Fuel Ethanol Industry
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Reynolds, Robert E. [Downstream Alternatives, Inc., South Bend, IN (United States)
2002-01-15
This report provides technical information specifically related to ethanol transportation, distribution, and marketing issues. This report required analysis of the infrastructure requirements for an expanded ethanol industry.
Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Kanal, LN
1986-01-01
How to deal with uncertainty is a subject of much controversy in Artificial Intelligence. This volume brings together a wide range of perspectives on uncertainty, many of the contributors being the principal proponents in the controversy.Some of the notable issues which emerge from these papers revolve around an interval-based calculus of uncertainty, the Dempster-Shafer Theory, and probability as the best numeric model for uncertainty. There remain strong dissenting opinions not only about probability but even about the utility of any numeric method in this context.
Uncertainties in hydrogen combustion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stamps, D.W.; Wong, C.C.; Nelson, L.S.
1988-01-01
Three important areas of hydrogen combustion with uncertainties are identified: high-temperature combustion, flame acceleration and deflagration-to-detonation transition, and aerosol resuspension during hydrogen combustion. The uncertainties associated with high-temperature combustion may affect at least three different accident scenarios: the in-cavity oxidation of combustible gases produced by core-concrete interactions, the direct containment heating hydrogen problem, and the possibility of local detonations. How these uncertainties may affect the sequence of various accident scenarios is discussed and recommendations are made to reduce these uncertainties. 40 references
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bassett, B A
2005-01-01
The cosmos is an awfully big place and there is no better guide to its vast expanse and fascinating nooks and crannies than John Barrow. A professor of mathematical sciences at Cambridge University, Barrow embodies that rare combination of highly polished writer and expert scientist. His deft touch brings together the disparate threads of human knowledge and weaves them into a tapestry as rich and interesting for the expert as it is for the layperson. The Artful Universe Expanded is an updated edition of this popular book first published in 1995. It explores the deeply profound manner in which natural law and the nature of the cosmos have moulded and shaped us, our cultures and the very form of our arts and music-a new type of 'cosmic' anthropology. The main themes Barrow chooses for revealing this new anthropology are the subjects of evolution, the size of things, the heavens and the nature of music. The book is a large, eclectic repository of knowledge often unavailable to the layperson, hidden in esoteric libraries around the world. It rivals The Da Vinci Code for entertainment value and insights, but this time it is Nature's code that is revealed. It is rare indeed to find common threads drawn through topics as diverse as The Beetles, Bach and Beethoven or between Jackson Pollock, the Aztecs, Kant, Picasso, Byzantine mosaics, uranium-235 and the helix nebula. Barrow unerringly binds them together, presenting them in a stimulating, conversational style that belies the amount of time that must have gone into researching this book. Dip into it at random, or read it from cover to cover, but do read it. The Artful Universe Expanded is an entertaining antidote to the oft-lamented pressures to know more and more about less and less and the apparently inexorable march of specialization. On reading this book one can, for a short time at least, hold in one's mind a vision that unifies science, art and culture and glimpse a universal tapestry of great beauty. (book review)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bassett, B A [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth (United Kingdom)
2005-07-29
The cosmos is an awfully big place and there is no better guide to its vast expanse and fascinating nooks and crannies than John Barrow. A professor of mathematical sciences at Cambridge University, Barrow embodies that rare combination of highly polished writer and expert scientist. His deft touch brings together the disparate threads of human knowledge and weaves them into a tapestry as rich and interesting for the expert as it is for the layperson. The Artful Universe Expanded is an updated edition of this popular book first published in 1995. It explores the deeply profound manner in which natural law and the nature of the cosmos have moulded and shaped us, our cultures and the very form of our arts and music-a new type of 'cosmic' anthropology. The main themes Barrow chooses for revealing this new anthropology are the subjects of evolution, the size of things, the heavens and the nature of music. The book is a large, eclectic repository of knowledge often unavailable to the layperson, hidden in esoteric libraries around the world. It rivals The Da Vinci Code for entertainment value and insights, but this time it is Nature's code that is revealed. It is rare indeed to find common threads drawn through topics as diverse as The Beetles, Bach and Beethoven or between Jackson Pollock, the Aztecs, Kant, Picasso, Byzantine mosaics, uranium-235 and the helix nebula. Barrow unerringly binds them together, presenting them in a stimulating, conversational style that belies the amount of time that must have gone into researching this book. Dip into it at random, or read it from cover to cover, but do read it. The Artful Universe Expanded is an entertaining antidote to the oft-lamented pressures to know more and more about less and less and the apparently inexorable march of specialization. On reading this book one can, for a short time at least, hold in one's mind a vision that unifies science, art and culture and glimpse a universal tapestry of great
Model Uncertainty for Bilinear Hysteretic Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle
1984-01-01
. The statistical uncertainty -due to lack of information can e.g. be taken into account by describing the variables by predictive density functions, Veneziano [2). In general, model uncertainty is the uncertainty connected with mathematical modelling of the physical reality. When structural reliability analysis...... is related to the concept of a failure surface (or limit state surface) in the n-dimensional basic variable space then model uncertainty is at least due to the neglected variables, the modelling of the failure surface and the computational technique used. A more precise definition is given in section 2...
Phenomenon of Uncertainty as a Subjective Experience
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lifintseva A.A.
2018-04-01
Full Text Available The phenomenon of uncertainty in illness of patients is discussed and analyzed in this article. Uncertainty in illness is a condition that accompanies the patient from the moment of appearance of the first somatic symptoms of the disease and could be strengthened or weakened thanks to many psychosocial factors. The level of uncertainty is related to the level of stress, emotional disadaptation, affective states, coping strategies, mechanisms of psychological defense, etc. Uncertainty can perform destructive functions, acting as a trigger for stressful conditions and launching negative emotional experiences. As a positive function of uncertainty, one can note a possible positive interpretation of the patient's disease. In addition, the state of uncertainty allows the patient to activate the resources of coping with the disease, among which the leading role belongs to social support.
Visual Semiotics & Uncertainty Visualization: An Empirical Study.
MacEachren, A M; Roth, R E; O'Brien, J; Li, B; Swingley, D; Gahegan, M
2012-12-01
This paper presents two linked empirical studies focused on uncertainty visualization. The experiments are framed from two conceptual perspectives. First, a typology of uncertainty is used to delineate kinds of uncertainty matched with space, time, and attribute components of data. Second, concepts from visual semiotics are applied to characterize the kind of visual signification that is appropriate for representing those different categories of uncertainty. This framework guided the two experiments reported here. The first addresses representation intuitiveness, considering both visual variables and iconicity of representation. The second addresses relative performance of the most intuitive abstract and iconic representations of uncertainty on a map reading task. Combined results suggest initial guidelines for representing uncertainty and discussion focuses on practical applicability of results.
Fuzzy Uncertainty Evaluation for Fault Tree Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kim, Ki Beom; Shim, Hyung Jin [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
2015-05-15
This traditional probabilistic approach can calculate relatively accurate results. However it requires a long time because of repetitive computation due to the MC method. In addition, when informative data for statistical analysis are not sufficient or some events are mainly caused by human error, the probabilistic approach may not be possible because uncertainties of these events are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions. In order to reduce the computation time and quantify uncertainties of top events when basic events whose uncertainties are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions exist, the fuzzy uncertainty propagation based on fuzzy set theory can be applied. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy uncertainty propagation code and apply the fault tree of the core damage accident after the large loss of coolant accident (LLOCA). The fuzzy uncertainty propagation code is implemented and tested for the fault tree of the radiation release accident. We apply this code to the fault tree of the core damage accident after the LLOCA in three cases and compare the results with those computed by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation using the MC method. The results obtained by the fuzzy uncertainty propagation can be calculated in relatively short time, covering the results obtained by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation.
Preventive Ethics Through Expanding Education.
Ho, Anita; MacDonald, Lisa Mei-Hwa; Unger, David
2016-03-01
Healthcare institutions have been making increasing efforts to standardize consultation methodology and to accredit both bioethics training programs and the consultants accordingly. The focus has traditionally been on the ethics consultation as the relevant unit of ethics intervention. Outcome measures are studied in relation to consultations, and the hidden assumption is that consultations are the preferred or best way to address day-to-day ethical dilemmas. Reflecting on the data from an internal quality improvement survey and the literature, we argue that having general ethics education as a key function of ethics services may be more important in meeting the contemporaneous needs of acute care settings. An expanded and varied ethics education, with attention to the time constraints of healthcare workers' schedules, was a key recommendation brought forward by survey respondents. Promoting ethical reflection and creating a culture of ethics may serve to prevent ethical dilemmas or mitigate their effects.
The Stock Market: Risk vs. Uncertainty.
Griffitts, Dawn
2002-01-01
This economics education publication focuses on the U.S. stock market and the risk and uncertainty that an individual faces when investing in the market. The material explains that risk and uncertainty relate to the same underlying concept randomness. It defines and discusses both concepts and notes that although risk is quantifiable, uncertainty…
Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty of Hyporheic Exchange Modelling
Chow, R.; Bennett, J.; Dugge, J.; Wöhling, T.; Nowak, W.
2017-12-01
Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of water between rivers and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic fluxes have been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. This research aims to evaluate which aspect of the subsurface representation - the spatial distribution of hydrofacies or the model for local-scale (within-facies) heterogeneity - most influences the predictive uncertainty. Also, we seek to identify data types that help reduce this uncertainty best. For this investigation, we conduct a modelling study of the Steinlach River meander, in Southwest Germany. The Steinlach River meander is an experimental site established in 2010 to monitor hyporheic exchange at the meander scale. We use HydroGeoSphere, a fully integrated surface water-groundwater model, to model hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive uncertainty of hyporheic exchange transit times (HETT). A highly parameterized complex model is built and treated as `virtual reality', which is in turn modelled with simpler subsurface parameterization schemes (Figure). Then, we conduct Monte-Carlo simulations with these models to estimate the predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that: Uncertainty in HETT is relatively small for early times and increases with transit times. Uncertainty from local-scale heterogeneity is negligible compared to uncertainty in the hydrofacies distribution. Introducing more data to a poor model structure may reduce predictive variance, but does not reduce predictive bias. Hydraulic head observations alone cannot constrain the uncertainty of HETT, however an estimate of hyporheic exchange flux proves to be more effective at reducing this uncertainty. Figure: Approach for evaluating predictive model uncertainty. A conceptual model is first developed from the field investigations. A complex model (`virtual reality') is then developed based on that conceptual model
Kennedy, Theodore A.
2013-01-01
Identifying areas of scientific uncertainty is a critical step in the adaptive management process (Walters, 1986; Runge, Converse, and Lyons, 2011). To identify key areas of scientific uncertainty regarding biologic resources of importance to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) convened Knowledge Assessment Workshops in May and July 2005. One of the products of these workshops was a set of strategic science questions that highlighted key areas of scientific uncertainty. These questions were intended to frame and guide the research and monitoring activities conducted by the GCMRC in subsequent years. Questions were developed collaboratively by scientists and managers. The questions were not all of equal importance or merit—some questions were large scale and others were small scale. Nevertheless, these questions were adopted and have guided the research and monitoring efforts conducted by the GCMRC since 2005. A new round of Knowledge Assessment Workshops was convened by the GCMRC in June and October 2011 and January 2012 to determine whether the research and monitoring activities conducted since 2005 had successfully answered some of the strategic science questions. Oral presentations by scientists highlighting research findings were a centerpiece of all three of the 2011–12 workshops. Each presenter was also asked to provide an answer to the strategic science questions that were specific to the presenter’s research area. One limitation of this approach is that these answers represented the views of the handful of scientists who developed the presentations, and, as such, they did not incorporate other perspectives. Thus, the answers provided by presenters at the Knowledge Assessment Workshops may not have accurately captured the sentiments of the broader group of scientists involved in research and monitoring of the Colorado River in Glen and Grand Canyons. Yet a fundamental ingredient of
Measurement uncertainty in single, double and triple isotope dilution mass spectrometry.
Vogl, Jochen
2012-02-15
Triple IDMS has been applied for the first time to the quantification of element concentrations. It has been compared with single and double IDMS obtained on the same sample set in order to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of triple IDMS over single and double IDMS as an analytical reference procedure. The measurement results of single, double and triple IDMS are indistinguishable, considering rounding due to the individual measurement uncertainties. As expected, the relative expanded uncertainties (k = 2) achieved with double IDMS (0.08%) are dramatically smaller than those obtained with single IDMS (1.4%). Triple IDMS yields the smallest relative expanded uncertainties (k = 2, 0.077%) unfortunately at the expense of a much higher workload. Nevertheless triple IDMS has the huge advantage that the isotope ratio of the spike does not need to be determined. Elements with high memory effects, highly enriched spikes or highest metrological requirements may be typical applications for triple IDMS. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Uncertainties in radioecological assessment models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.; Ng, Y.C.
1983-01-01
Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to bias in model formulation and imprecision in parameter estimation. The magnitude of uncertainty is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, health risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible. 41 references, 4 figures, 4 tables
Uncertainty in social dilemmas
Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de
2007-01-01
This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size
Uncertainty and Climate Change
Berliner, L. Mark
2003-01-01
Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.
Deterministic uncertainty analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Worley, B.A.
1987-01-01
Uncertainties of computer results are of primary interest in applications such as high-level waste (HLW) repository performance assessment in which experimental validation is not possible or practical. This work presents an alternate deterministic approach for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs required for conventional statistical analysis. 7 refs., 1 fig
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Depres, B.; Dossantos-Uzarralde, P.
2009-01-01
More than 150 researchers and engineers from universities and the industrial world met to discuss on the new methodologies developed around assessing uncertainty. About 20 papers were presented and the main topics were: methods to study the propagation of uncertainties, sensitivity analysis, nuclear data covariances or multi-parameter optimisation. This report gathers the contributions of CEA researchers and engineers
Barrow, John D.
2005-07-01
Our love of art, writes John Barrow, is the end product of millions of years of evolution. How we react to a beautiful painting or symphony draws upon instincts laid down long before humans existed. Now, in this enhanced edition of the highly popular The Artful Universe , Barrow further explores the close ties between our aesthetic appreciation and the basic nature of the Universe. Barrow argues that the laws of the Universe have imprinted themselves upon our thoughts and actions in subtle and unexpected ways. Why do we like certain types of art or music? What games and puzzles do we find challenging? Why do so many myths and legends have common elements? In this eclectic and entertaining survey, Barrow answers these questions and more as he explains how the landscape of the Universe has influenced the development of philosophy and mythology, and how millions of years of evolutionary history have fashioned our attraction to certain patterns of sound and color. Barrow casts the story of human creativity and thought in a fascinating light, considering such diverse topics as our instinct for language, the origins and uses of color in nature, why we divide time into intervals as we do, the sources of our appreciation of landscape painting, and whether computer-generated fractal art is really art. Drawing on a wide variety of examples, from the theological questions raised by St. Augustine and C.S. Lewis to the relationship between the pure math of Pythagoras and the music of the Beatles, The Artful Universe Expanded covers new ground and enters a wide-ranging debate about the meaning and significance of the links between art and science.
Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Preston, Dean L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2015-03-19
This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.
A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties Technical Report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Campos, E [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sisterson, Douglas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
2016-12-01
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility is observationally based, and quantifying the uncertainty of its measurements is critically important. With over 300 widely differing instruments providing over 2,500 datastreams, concise expression of measurement uncertainty is quite challenging. The ARM Facility currently provides data and supporting metadata (information about the data or data quality) to its users through a number of sources. Because the continued success of the ARM Facility depends on the known quality of its measurements, the Facility relies on instrument mentors and the ARM Data Quality Office (DQO) to ensure, assess, and report measurement quality. Therefore, an easily accessible, well-articulated estimate of ARM measurement uncertainty is needed. Note that some of the instrument observations require mathematical algorithms (retrievals) to convert a measured engineering variable into a useful geophysical measurement. While those types of retrieval measurements are identified, this study does not address particular methods for retrieval uncertainty. As well, the ARM Facility also provides engineered data products, or value-added products (VAPs), based on multiple instrument measurements. This study does not include uncertainty estimates for those data products. We propose here that a total measurement uncertainty should be calculated as a function of the instrument uncertainty (calibration factors), the field uncertainty (environmental factors), and the retrieval uncertainty (algorithm factors). The study will not expand on methods for computing these uncertainties. Instead, it will focus on the practical identification, characterization, and inventory of the measurement uncertainties already available in the ARM community through the ARM instrument mentors and their ARM instrument handbooks. As a result, this study will address the first steps towards reporting ARM measurement uncertainty
Large-uncertainty intelligent states for angular momentum and angle
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Goette, Joerg B; Zambrini, Roberta; Franke-Arnold, Sonja; Barnett, Stephen M
2005-01-01
The equality in the uncertainty principle for linear momentum and position is obtained for states which also minimize the uncertainty product. However, in the uncertainty relation for angular momentum and angular position both sides of the inequality are state dependent and therefore the intelligent states, which satisfy the equality, do not necessarily give a minimum for the uncertainty product. In this paper, we highlight the difference between intelligent states and minimum uncertainty states by investigating a class of intelligent states which obey the equality in the angular uncertainty relation while having an arbitrarily large uncertainty product. To develop an understanding for the uncertainties of angle and angular momentum for the large-uncertainty intelligent states we compare exact solutions with analytical approximations in two limiting cases
[Influence of Uncertainty and Uncertainty Appraisal on Self-management in Hemodialysis Patients].
Jang, Hyung Suk; Lee, Chang Suk; Yang, Young Hee
2015-04-01
This study was done to examine the relation of uncertainty, uncertainty appraisal, and self-management in patients undergoing hemodialysis, and to identify factors influencing self-management. A convenience sample of 92 patients receiving hemodialysis was selected. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and medical records. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlations and multiple regression analysis with the SPSS/WIN 20.0 program. The participants showed a moderate level of uncertainty with the highest score being for ambiguity among the four uncertainty subdomains. Scores for uncertainty danger or opportunity appraisals were under the mid points. The participants were found to perform a high level of self-management such as diet control, management of arteriovenous fistula, exercise, medication, physical management, measurements of body weight and blood pressure, and social activity. The self-management of participants undergoing hemodialysis showed a significant relationship with uncertainty and uncertainty appraisal. The significant factors influencing self-management were uncertainty, uncertainty opportunity appraisal, hemodialysis duration, and having a spouse. These variables explained 32.8% of the variance in self-management. The results suggest that intervention programs to reduce the level of uncertainty and to increase the level of uncertainty opportunity appraisal among patients would improve the self-management of hemodialysis patients.
Minimum uncertainty and squeezing in diffusion processes and stochastic quantization
Demartino, S.; Desiena, S.; Illuminati, Fabrizo; Vitiello, Giuseppe
1994-01-01
We show that uncertainty relations, as well as minimum uncertainty coherent and squeezed states, are structural properties for diffusion processes. Through Nelson stochastic quantization we derive the stochastic image of the quantum mechanical coherent and squeezed states.
Hubble, Hubble's Law and the Expanding Universe
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Srimath
H ubble's nam e is associated closely w ith the idea of an expanding universe as he discovered the relation between the recession velocity and the distances of galaxies. H ubble also did a lot of pioneering w ork on the distribution of galaxies in the universe. In this article we take a look at H ubble's law and discuss how it ...
Bank Directors’ Perceptions of Expanded Auditor's Reports
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Boolaky, Pran Krishansing; Quick, Reiner
2016-01-01
Subsequent to the financial crisis, standard setters developed suggestions for enhancing the audit function, in order to increase financial stability. One related idea is to expand the audit report disclosed to the public, to ensure that it is fit for purpose. This study investigates the impact o...
Uncertainty Propagation in OMFIT
Smith, Sterling; Meneghini, Orso; Sung, Choongki
2017-10-01
A rigorous comparison of power balance fluxes and turbulent model fluxes requires the propagation of uncertainties in the kinetic profiles and their derivatives. Making extensive use of the python uncertainties package, the OMFIT framework has been used to propagate covariant uncertainties to provide an uncertainty in the power balance calculation from the ONETWO code, as well as through the turbulent fluxes calculated by the TGLF code. The covariant uncertainties arise from fitting 1D (constant on flux surface) density and temperature profiles and associated random errors with parameterized functions such as a modified tanh. The power balance and model fluxes can then be compared with quantification of the uncertainties. No effort is made at propagating systematic errors. A case study will be shown for the effects of resonant magnetic perturbations on the kinetic profiles and fluxes at the top of the pedestal. A separate attempt at modeling the random errors with Monte Carlo sampling will be compared to the method of propagating the fitting function parameter covariant uncertainties. Work supported by US DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698, DE-FG2-95ER-54309, DE-SC 0012656.
Semiclassical expanding discrete space-times
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cobb, W.K.; Smalley, L.L.
1981-01-01
Given the close ties between general relativity and geometry one might reasonably expect that quantum effects associated with gravitation might also be tied to the geometry of space-time, namely, to some sort of discreteness in space-time itself. In particular it is supposed that space-time consists of a discrete lattice of points rather than the usual continuum. Since astronomical evidence seems to suggest that the universe is expanding, the lattice must also expand. Some of the implications of such a model are that the proton should presently be stable, and the universe should be closed although the mechanism for closure is quantum mechanical. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chatterjee, Samrat; Tipireddy, Ramakrishna; Oster, Matthew R.; Halappanavar, Mahantesh
2016-09-16
Securing cyber-systems on a continual basis against a multitude of adverse events is a challenging undertaking. Game-theoretic approaches, that model actions of strategic decision-makers, are increasingly being applied to address cybersecurity resource allocation challenges. Such game-based models account for multiple player actions and represent cyber attacker payoffs mostly as point utility estimates. Since a cyber-attacker’s payoff generation mechanism is largely unknown, appropriate representation and propagation of uncertainty is a critical task. In this paper we expand on prior work and focus on operationalizing the probabilistic uncertainty quantification framework, for a notional cyber system, through: 1) representation of uncertain attacker and system-related modeling variables as probability distributions and mathematical intervals, and 2) exploration of uncertainty propagation techniques including two-phase Monte Carlo sampling and probability bounds analysis.
Verification of uncertainty budgets
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Heydorn, Kaj; Madsen, B.S.
2005-01-01
, and therefore it is essential that the applicability of the overall uncertainty budget to actual measurement results be verified on the basis of current experimental data. This should be carried out by replicate analysis of samples taken in accordance with the definition of the measurand, but representing...... the full range of matrices and concentrations for which the budget is assumed to be valid. In this way the assumptions made in the uncertainty budget can be experimentally verified, both as regards sources of variability that are assumed negligible, and dominant uncertainty components. Agreement between...
The Expanding Universe: Dark Energy
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lincoln, Don [Fermilab; Nord, Brian [Fermilab
2014-09-01
In 1998, observations of distant supernovae led physicists that not only was the universe expanding, but the expansion was speeding up. In this article, we describe the evidence for an expanding universe and describe what physicists and cosmologists have learned in the intervening years. The target audience for this article is high school physics teachers and college physics professors at teaching institutions.
Conditional Betas and Investor Uncertainty
Fernando D. Chague
2013-01-01
We derive theoretical expressions for market betas from a rational expectation equilibrium model where the representative investor does not observe if the economy is in a recession or an expansion. Market betas in this economy are time-varying and related to investor uncertainty about the state of the economy. The dynamics of betas will also vary across assets according to the assets' cash-flow structure. In a calibration exercise, we show that value and growth firms have cash-flow structures...
Attitudes toward expanding nurses' authority.
Kerzman, Hana; Van Dijk, Dina; Eizenberg, Limor; Khaikin, Rut; Phridman, Shoshi; Siman-Tov, Maya; Goldberg, Shoshi
2015-01-01
In recent years, an increasing number of care procedures previously under the physician's authority have been placed in the hands of registered nurses. The purpose of this study was to examine the attitudes of nurses towards expanding nurses' authority and the relationships between these attitudes and job satisfaction facets, professional characteristics, and demographics. A cross-sectional study was conducted between 2010 and 2011 in three major medical centers in Israel. Participants included 833 nurses working in 89 departments. Attitudes toward the expansion of nurses' authority were assessed by self-report questionnaire, as well as job satisfaction facets including perception of professional autonomy, nurse-physician working relations, workload and burnout, perceptions of quality of care, and nursing staff satisfaction at work. Nurses reported positive attitudes toward the expansion of nurses' authority and moderate attitudes for interpretation of diagnostic tests in selected situations. The results of multivariate regression analyses demonstrate that the nurses' satisfaction from professional autonomy and work relations were the most influential factors in explaining their attitudes toward the expansion of nurses' authority. In addition, professionally young nurses tend to be more positive regarding changes in nurses' authority. In the Israeli reality of a nurse's shortage, we are witnessing professional transitions toward expansion of the scope of nurses' accountability and decision-making authority. The current research contributes to our understanding of attitudes toward the expansion of nurses' authority among the nursing staffs. The findings indicate the necessity of redefining the scope of nursing practice within the current professional context.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Limperopoulos, G.J.
1995-01-01
This report presents an oil project valuation under uncertainty by means of two well-known financial techniques: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and The Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula. CAPM gives a linear positive relationship between expected rate of return and risk but does not take into consideration the aspect of flexibility which is crucial for an irreversible investment as an oil price is. Introduction of investment decision flexibility by using real options can increase the oil project value substantially. Some simple tests for the importance of uncertainty in stock market for oil investments are performed. Uncertainty in stock returns is correlated with aggregate product market uncertainty according to Pindyck (1991). The results of the tests are not satisfactory due to the short data series but introducing two other explanatory variables the interest rate and Gross Domestic Product make the situation better. 36 refs., 18 figs., 6 tabs
Uncertainties and climatic change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
De Gier, A.M.; Opschoor, J.B.; Van de Donk, W.B.H.J.; Hooimeijer, P.; Jepma, J.; Lelieveld, J.; Oerlemans, J.; Petersen, A.
2008-01-01
Which processes in the climate system are misunderstood? How are scientists dealing with uncertainty about climate change? What will be done with the conclusions of the recently published synthesis report of the IPCC? These and other questions were answered during the meeting 'Uncertainties and climate change' that was held on Monday 26 November 2007 at the KNAW in Amsterdam. This report is a compilation of all the presentations and provides some conclusions resulting from the discussions during this meeting. [mk] [nl
Lemaire, Maurice
2014-01-01
Science is a quest for certainty, but lack of certainty is the driving force behind all of its endeavors. This book, specifically, examines the uncertainty of technological and industrial science. Uncertainty and Mechanics studies the concepts of mechanical design in an uncertain setting and explains engineering techniques for inventing cost-effective products. Though it references practical applications, this is a book about ideas and potential advances in mechanical science.
Uncertainty: lotteries and risk
Ávalos, Eloy
2011-01-01
In this paper we develop the theory of uncertainty in a context where the risks assumed by the individual are measurable and manageable. We primarily use the definition of lottery to formulate the axioms of the individual's preferences, and its representation through the utility function von Neumann - Morgenstern. We study the expected utility theorem and its properties, the paradoxes of choice under uncertainty and finally the measures of risk aversion with monetary lotteries.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hanley, O. [Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland, 3 Clonskeagh Square, Clonskeagh Road, Dublin 14 (Ireland)], E-mail: ohanley@rpii.ie; Gutierrez-Villanueva, J.L. [Laboratorio LIBRA, Edificio I-D, Paseo Belen 3, 47011 Valladolid (Spain); Departamento de Fisica Teorica, Atomica y Optica, Facultad de Ciencias, Paseo Prado de la Magdalena, s/n. 47005 Valladolid (Spain)], E-mail: joselg@libra.uva.es; Currivan, L. [Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland, 3 Clonskeagh Square, Clonskeagh Road, Dublin 14 (Ireland)], E-mail: lcurrivan@rpii.ie; Pollard, D. [Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland, 3 Clonskeagh Square, Clonskeagh Road, Dublin 14 (Ireland)], E-mail: dpollard@rpii.ie
2008-10-15
The RPII radon (Rn) laboratory holds accreditation for the International Standard ISO/IEC 17025. A requirement of this standard is an estimate of the uncertainty of measurement. This work shows two approaches to estimate the uncertainty. The bottom-up approach involved identifying the components that were found to contribute to the uncertainty. Estimates were made for each of these components, which were combined to give a combined uncertainty of 13.5% at a Rn concentration of approximately 2500 Bq m{sup -3} at the 68% confidence level. By applying a coverage factor of k = 2, the expanded uncertainty is {+-}27% at the 95% confidence level. The top-down approach used information previously gathered from intercomparison exercises to estimate the uncertainty. This investigation found an expanded uncertainty of {+-}22% at approximately 95% confidence level. This is good agreement for such independent estimates.
Hanley, O; Gutiérrez-Villanueva, J L; Currivan, L; Pollard, D
2008-10-01
The RPII radon (Rn) laboratory holds accreditation for the International Standard ISO/IEC 17025. A requirement of this standard is an estimate of the uncertainty of measurement. This work shows two approaches to estimate the uncertainty. The bottom-up approach involved identifying the components that were found to contribute to the uncertainty. Estimates were made for each of these components, which were combined to give a combined uncertainty of 13.5% at a Rn concentration of approximately 2500 Bq m(-3) at the 68% confidence level. By applying a coverage factor of k=2, the expanded uncertainty is +/-27% at the 95% confidence level. The top-down approach used information previously gathered from intercomparison exercises to estimate the uncertainty. This investigation found an expanded uncertainty of +/-22% at approximately 95% confidence level. This is good agreement for such independent estimates.
Potential effects of organizational uncertainty on safety
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Durbin, N.E.; Lekberg, A.; Melber, B.D.
2001-12-01
When organizations face significant change - reorganization, mergers, acquisitions, down sizing, plant closures or decommissioning - both the organizations and the workers in those organizations experience significant uncertainty about the future. This uncertainty affects the organization and the people working in the organization - adversely affecting morale, reducing concentration on safe operations, and resulting in the loss of key staff. Hence, organizations, particularly those using high risk technologies, which are facing significant change need to consider and plan for the effects of organizational uncertainty on safety - as well as planning for other consequences of change - technical, economic, emotional, and productivity related. This paper reviews some of what is known about the effects of uncertainty on organizations and individuals, discusses the potential consequences of uncertainty on organizational and individual behavior, and presents some of the implications for safety professionals
Potential effects of organizational uncertainty on safety
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Durbin, N.E. [MPD Consulting Group, Kirkland, WA (United States); Lekberg, A. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Melber, B.D. [Melber Consulting, Seattle WA (United States)
2001-12-01
When organizations face significant change - reorganization, mergers, acquisitions, down sizing, plant closures or decommissioning - both the organizations and the workers in those organizations experience significant uncertainty about the future. This uncertainty affects the organization and the people working in the organization - adversely affecting morale, reducing concentration on safe operations, and resulting in the loss of key staff. Hence, organizations, particularly those using high risk technologies, which are facing significant change need to consider and plan for the effects of organizational uncertainty on safety - as well as planning for other consequences of change - technical, economic, emotional, and productivity related. This paper reviews some of what is known about the effects of uncertainty on organizations and individuals, discusses the potential consequences of uncertainty on organizational and individual behavior, and presents some of the implications for safety professionals.
Some reflections on uncertainty analysis and management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aven, Terje
2010-01-01
A guide to quantitative uncertainty analysis and management in industry has recently been issued. The guide provides an overall framework for uncertainty modelling and characterisations, using probabilities but also other uncertainty representations (including the Dempster-Shafer theory). A number of practical applications showing how to use the framework are presented. The guide is considered as an important contribution to the field, but there is a potential for improvements. These relate mainly to the scientific basis and clarification of critical issues, for example, concerning the meaning of a probability and the concept of model uncertainty. A reformulation of the framework is suggested using probabilities as the only representation of uncertainty. Several simple examples are included to motivate and explain the basic ideas of the modified framework.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stueken, David Anselm
2013-10-14
The Double Chooz experiment, located in the Ardennes region next to the CHOOZ-B nuclear power plant, is a reactor antineutrino experiment to measure neutrino oscillations. It has been designed as precision experiment to measure the neutrino mixing angel θ{sub 13} with highest possible accuracy due to its small value close to zero. The electron antineutrino flux emitted by the reactor cores is measured by two identical neutrino detectors located at different distances from the reactor cores. Each detector consist of a 10.3 m{sup 3} target volume filled with liquid scintillator and surrounded by 390 photomultiplier tubes. The far detector is located 1.05 km away from the reactor cores to be most sensitive to oscillation effects. The unoscillated neutrino flux is measured by the near detector located 400 m away from the reactor cores. In order to reduce background events and other sources resulting in systematic uncertainties, special requirements have been demanded for all detector components and electronic systems. In this context, a most efficiently operating data acquisition system is essential. The subsystem responsible to start data storage for events of interest is the so called ''trigger system''. The design concept of the Double Chooz trigger system introduces two redundancy concepts in order to trigger the data acquisition in the most robust and efficient way: The trigger decision is based on a combination of an energy threshold and the number of active photomultiplier tubes (multiplicity condition). Secondly, the system is divided into two identical but independently operating subsystems for most robust operations of the full system. Additionally, the two subsystem provide the possibility to measure the efficiency of the system. Apart from generating the trigger signal for the data acquisition, the system provides an online event classification in order to adjust the amount of stored data for each event type. After one and a half year
Evaluation of uncertainties in the calibration of radiation survey meter
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Potiens, M.P.A.; Santos, G.P.
2006-01-01
In order to meet the requirements of ISO 17025, the quantification of the expanded uncertainties of experimental data in the calibration of survey meters must be carried out using well defined concepts, like those expressed in the 'ISO-Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement'. The calibration procedure of gamma ray survey meters involves two values that have to get their uncertainties clearly known: measurements of the instrument under calibration and the conventional true values of a quantity. Considering the continuous improvement of the calibration methods and set-ups, it is necessary to evaluate periodically the involved uncertainties in the procedures. In this work it is shown how the measurement uncertainties of an individual calibration can be estimated and how it can be generalized to be valid for others radiation survey meters. (authors)
Development of Property Models with Uncertainty Estimate for Process Design under Uncertainty
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hukkerikar, Amol; Sarup, Bent; Abildskov, Jens
more reliable predictions with a new and improved set of model parameters for GC (group contribution) based and CI (atom connectivity index) based models and to quantify the uncertainties in the estimated property values from a process design point-of-view. This includes: (i) parameter estimation using....... The comparison of model prediction uncertainties with reported range of measurement uncertainties is presented for the properties with related available data. The application of the developed methodology to quantify the effect of these uncertainties on the design of different unit operations (distillation column......, the developed methodology can be used to quantify the sensitivity of process design to uncertainties in property estimates; obtain rationally the risk/safety factors in process design; and identify additional experimentation needs in order to reduce most critical uncertainties....
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Horner, M. [AltaLink Management Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)
2010-07-01
This PowerPoint presentation discussed some of the changes and strategies that are currently being adopted by AltaLink to expand Alberta's electricity grid in relation to wind power development. The company is Alberta's largest transmission facility operator. Wind power currently accounts for approximately 5 percent of the province's generation mix. Applications for new wind farms will increase Alberta's 629 MW of wind power generation capacity to 5530 MW. Alberta's transmission regulation requires that 100 percent of in-merit generation can occur when transmission facilities are in service, and that 95 percent of in-merit generation can occur under abnormal operating conditions. A new transmission line is being constructed in the Pincher Creek and Lethbridge region as part of a southern Alberta transmission reinforcement project. The Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) and Canadian Wind Energy Association (CanWEA) are working together to ensure that adequate resources are available while system reliability is maintained. The Ardenville wind farm is the first wind power project to be energized under the new connection model launched by the AESO. The connection model was developed to identify, connect, and construct new energy projects. The project will also identify connection routes with the lowest overall impact on the province. Alberta will also continue to implement technologies that ensure the development of a smart grid. tabs., figs.
Quantifying the uncertainty in heritability.
Furlotte, Nicholas A; Heckerman, David; Lippert, Christoph
2014-05-01
The use of mixed models to determine narrow-sense heritability and related quantities such as SNP heritability has received much recent attention. Less attention has been paid to the inherent variability in these estimates. One approach for quantifying variability in estimates of heritability is a frequentist approach, in which heritability is estimated using maximum likelihood and its variance is quantified through an asymptotic normal approximation. An alternative approach is to quantify the uncertainty in heritability through its Bayesian posterior distribution. In this paper, we develop the latter approach, make it computationally efficient and compare it to the frequentist approach. We show theoretically that, for a sufficiently large sample size and intermediate values of heritability, the two approaches provide similar results. Using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort, we show empirically that the two approaches can give different results and that the variance/uncertainty can remain large.
Interactions between perceived uncertainty types in service dyads
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kreye, Melanie
2018-01-01
to avoid business failure. A conceptual framework of four uncertainty types is investigated: environmental, technological, organisational, and relational uncertainty. We present insights from four empirical cases of service dyads collected via multiple sources of evidence including 54 semi-structured...... interviews, observations, and secondary data. The cases show seven interaction paths with direct knock-on effects between two uncertainty types and indirect knock-on effects between three or four uncertainty types. The findings suggest a causal chain from environmental, technological, organisational......, to relational uncertainty. This research contributes to the servitization literature by (i) con-firming the existence of uncertainty types, (ii) providing an in-depth characterisation of technological uncertainty, and (iii) showing the interaction paths between four uncertainty types in the form of a causal...
Coping with uncertainty in environmental impact assessments: Open techniques
Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Halman, Johannes I.M.
2016-01-01
Uncertainty is virtually unavoidable in environmental impact assessments (EIAs). From the literature related to treating and managing uncertainty, we have identified specific techniques for coping with uncertainty in EIAs. Here, we have focused on basic steps in the decision-making process that take
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents relative seabird abundance predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This raster was derived...
New generation expandable sand screens
Syltøy, Christer
2014-01-01
Master's thesis in Petroleum engineering This thesis aims to give a general insight into sand control and various sorts of sand control measures and applications of sand control tools. Special focus will be given to expandable sand screens – a technology which came about in the late 1990’s through the use of flexible, expandable tubulars as base pipe in sand screens. More specifically Darcy’s Hydraulic Endurance Screens, a compliant sand screen system using hydraulic activation, and the fu...
Neutrinos in an expanding Universe
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wigmans, Richard
2015-01-01
The Universe contains several billion neutrinos for each nucleon. In this paper, we follow the history of these relic neutrinos as the Universe expanded. At present, their typical velocity is a few hundred km/s and, therefore, their spectra are affected by gravitational forces. This may have led to a phenomenon that could explain two of todays great mysteries: The large-scale structure of the Universe and the increasing rate at which it expands. (paper)
Quantum Uncertainty and Fundamental Interactions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tosto S.
2013-04-01
Full Text Available The paper proposes a simplified theoretical approach to infer some essential concepts on the fundamental interactions between charged particles and their relative strengths at comparable energies by exploiting the quantum uncertainty only. The worth of the present approach relies on the way of obtaining the results, rather than on the results themselves: concepts today acknowledged as fingerprints of the electroweak and strong interactions appear indeed rooted in the same theoretical frame including also the basic principles of special and general relativity along with the gravity force.
Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen
2009-01-01
This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario......-based graphs which function as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project....
On Uncertainty and the WTA-WTP Gap
Douglas D. Davis; Robert J. Reilly
2012-01-01
We correct an analysis by Isik (2004) regarding the effects of uncertainty on the WTA-WTP gap. Isik presents as his primary result a proposition that the introduction of uncertainty regarding environmental quality improvements causes WTA to increase and WTP to decrease by identical amounts relative to a certainty condition where WTA=WTP. These conclusions are incorrect. In fact, WTP may equal WTA even with uncertainty, and increases in the uncertainty of environmental quality improvements cau...
Quantification of uncertainties of modeling and simulation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ma Zhibo; Yin Jianwei
2012-01-01
The principles of Modeling and Simulation (M and S) is interpreted by a functional relation, from which the total uncertainties of M and S are identified and sorted to three parts considered to vary along with the conceptual models' parameters. According to the idea of verification and validation, the space of the parameters is parted to verified and applied domains, uncertainties in the verified domain are quantified by comparison between numerical and standard results, and those in the applied domain are quantified by a newly developed extrapolating method. Examples are presented to demonstrate and qualify the ideas aimed to build a framework to quantify the uncertainties of M and S. (authors)
Uncertainty analysis of the FRAP code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Peck, S.O.
1978-01-01
A user oriented, automated uncertainty analysis capability has been built into the Fuel Rod Analysis Program (FRAP) code and has been applied to a pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel rod undergoing a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). The method of uncertainty analysis is the response surface method. The automated version significantly reduced the time required to complete the analysis and, at the same time, greatly increased the problem scope. Results of the analysis showed a significant difference in the total and relative contributions to the uncertainty of the response parameters between steady state and transient conditions
Dealing with Uncertainties in Initial Orbit Determination
Armellin, Roberto; Di Lizia, Pierluigi; Zanetti, Renato
2015-01-01
A method to deal with uncertainties in initial orbit determination (IOD) is presented. This is based on the use of Taylor differential algebra (DA) to nonlinearly map the observation uncertainties from the observation space to the state space. When a minimum set of observations is available DA is used to expand the solution of the IOD problem in Taylor series with respect to measurement errors. When more observations are available high order inversion tools are exploited to obtain full state pseudo-observations at a common epoch. The mean and covariance of these pseudo-observations are nonlinearly computed by evaluating the expectation of high order Taylor polynomials. Finally, a linear scheme is employed to update the current knowledge of the orbit. Angles-only observations are considered and simplified Keplerian dynamics adopted to ease the explanation. Three test cases of orbit determination of artificial satellites in different orbital regimes are presented to discuss the feature and performances of the proposed methodology.
Dealing with exploration uncertainties
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Capen, E.
1992-01-01
Exploration for oil and gas should fulfill the most adventurous in their quest for excitement and surprise. This paper tries to cover that tall order. The authors will touch on the magnitude of the uncertainty (which is far greater than in most other businesses), the effects of not knowing target sizes very well, how to build uncertainty into analyses naturally, how to tie reserves and chance estimates to economics, and how to look at the portfolio effect of an exploration program. With no apologies, the authors will be using a different language for some readers - the language of uncertainty, which means probability and statistics. These tools allow one to combine largely subjective exploration information with the more analytical data from the engineering and economic side
Representing uncertainty on model analysis plots
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Trevor I. Smith
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Model analysis provides a mechanism for representing student learning as measured by standard multiple-choice surveys. The model plot contains information regarding both how likely students in a particular class are to choose the correct answer and how likely they are to choose an answer consistent with a well-documented conceptual model. Unfortunately, Bao’s original presentation of the model plot did not include a way to represent uncertainty in these measurements. I present details of a method to add error bars to model plots by expanding the work of Sommer and Lindell. I also provide a template for generating model plots with error bars.
Information-theoretic approach to uncertainty importance
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Park, C.K.; Bari, R.A.
1985-01-01
A method is presented for importance analysis in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) for which the results of interest are characterized by full uncertainty distributions and not just point estimates. The method is based on information theory in which entropy is a measure of uncertainty of a probability density function. We define the relative uncertainty importance between two events as the ratio of the two exponents of the entropies. For the log-normal and log-uniform distributions the importance measure is comprised of the median (central tendency) and of the logarithm of the error factor (uncertainty). Thus, if accident sequences are ranked this way, and the error factors are not all equal, then a different rank order would result than if the sequences were ranked by the central tendency measure alone. As an illustration, the relative importance of internal events and in-plant fires was computed on the basis of existing PRA results
Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.
2013-12-01
Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.
The aim of this work is to develop group-contribution+ (GC+) method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI) method) based property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncert...
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael
2005-01-01
As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c
Du, Bing; Liu Aimin; Huang, Yeru
2014-09-01
Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) in soil samples were analyzed by isotope dilution method with high resolution gas chromatography and high resolution mass spectrometry (ID-HRGC/HRMS), and the toxic equivalent quantity (TEQ) were calculated. The impacts of major source of measurement uncertainty are discussed, and the combined relative standard uncertainties were calculated for each 2, 3, 7, 8 substituted con- gener. Furthermore, the concentration, combined uncertainty and expanded uncertainty for TEQ of PCDD/Fs in a soil sample in I-TEF, WHO-1998-TEF and WHO-2005-TEF schemes are provided as an example. I-TEF, WHO-1998-TEF and WHO-2005-TEF are the evaluation schemes of toxic equivalent factor (TEF), and are all currently used to describe 2,3,7,8 sub- stituted relative potencies.
Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Elert, M.
1996-09-01
zone concentration. Models considering faster net downward flow in the upper part of the root zone predict a more rapid decline in root zone concentration than models that assume a constant infiltration throughout the soil column. A sensitivity analysis performed on two of the models shows that the important parameters are the effective precipitation, the root water uptake and the soil K d -values. For the advection-dispersion model, the dispersion length is also important for the maximum flux to the groundwater. The amount of dispersion in radionuclide transport is of importance for the release to groundwater. For the box models, an inherent dispersion is obtained by the assumption of instantaneous mixing in the boxes. The degree of dispersion in the calculation will be a function of the size of the boxes. It is therefore important that division of the soil column is made with care in order to obtain the intended values. For many models the uncertainty calculations give very skewed distributions for the flux to the groundwater. In some cases the mean of the stochastic calculation can be several orders of magnitude higher than the value from the deterministic calculations. In relation to the objectives set up for this study it can be concluded that: The analysis of the relationship between uncertainty and model complexity proved to be a difficult task. For the studied scenario, the uncertainty in the model predictions does not have a simple relationship with the complexity of the models used. However, a complete analysis could not be performed since uncertainty results were not available for the full range of models and furthermore were not the uncertainty analysis always carried out in a consistent way. The predicted uncertainty associated with the concentration in the root zone does not show very much variation between the modelling approaches. For the predictions of the flux to groundwater, the simple models and the more complex gave very different results for the
Short wavelength striations on expanding plasma clouds
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Winske, D.; Gary, S.P.
1989-01-01
The growth and evolution of short wavelength (< ion gyroradius) flute modes on a plasma expanding across an ambient magnetic field have been actively studied in recent years, both by means of experiments in the laboratory as well as in space and through numerical simulations. We review the relevant observations and simulations results, discuss the instability mechanism and related linear theory, and describe recent work to bring experiments and theory into better agreement. 30 refs., 6 figs
Uncertainties in repository modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wilson, J.R.
1996-12-31
The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling.
Uncertainties in repository modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wilson, J.R.
1996-01-01
The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haefele, W.; Renn, O.; Erdmann, G.
1990-01-01
The notion of 'risk' is discussed in its social and technological contexts, leading to an investigation of the terms factuality, hypotheticality, uncertainty, and vagueness, and to the problems of acceptance and acceptability especially in the context of political decision finding. (DG) [de
Expanding the knowledge translation metaphor.
Engebretsen, Eivind; Sandset, Tony Joakim; Ødemark, John
2017-03-13
Knowledge translation (KT) is a buzzword in modern medical science. However, there has been little theoretical reflection on translation as a process of meaning production in KT. In this paper, we argue that KT will benefit from the incorporation of a more theoretical notion of translation as an entangled material, textual and cultural process. We discuss and challenge fundamental assumptions in KT, drawing on theories of translation from the human sciences. We show that the current construal of KT as separate from and secondary to the original scientific message is close to the now deeply compromised literary view of translation as the simple act of copying the original. Inspired by recent theories of translation, we claim that KT can be more adequately understood in terms of a 'double supplement' - on the one hand, KT offers new approaches to the communication of scientific knowledge to different groups in the healthcare system with the aim of supplementing a lack of knowledge among clinicians (and patients). On the other, it demonstrates that a textual and cultural supplement, namely a concern with target audiences (clinicians and patients), is inevitable in the creation of an 'autonomous' science. Hence, the division between science and its translation is unproductive and impossible to maintain. We discuss some possible implications of our suggested shift in concept by drawing on pharmaceutical interventions for the prevention of HIV as a case. We argue that such interventions are based on a supplementary and paradoxical relation to the target audiences, both presupposing and denying their existence. More sophisticated theories of translation can lay the foundation for an expanded model of KT that incorporates a more adequate and reflective description of the interdependency of scientific, cultural, textual and material practices.
Gene surfing in expanding populations.
Hallatschek, Oskar; Nelson, David R
2008-02-01
Large scale genomic surveys are partly motivated by the idea that the neutral genetic variation of a population may be used to reconstruct its migration history. However, our ability to trace back the colonization pathways of a species from their genetic footprints is limited by our understanding of the genetic consequences of a range expansion. Here, we study, by means of simulations and analytical methods, the neutral dynamics of gene frequencies in an asexual population undergoing a continual range expansion in one dimension. During such a colonization period, lineages can fix at the wave front by means of a "surfing" mechanism [Edmonds, C.A., Lillie, A.S., Cavalli-Sforza, L.L., 2004. Mutations arising in the wave front of an expanding population. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 101, 975-979]. We quantify this phenomenon in terms of (i) the spatial distribution of lineages that reach fixation and, closely related, (ii) the continual loss of genetic diversity (heterozygosity) at the wave front, characterizing the approach to fixation. Our stochastic simulations show that an effective population size can be assigned to the wave that controls the (observable) gradient in heterozygosity left behind the colonization process. This effective population size is markedly higher in the presence of cooperation between individuals ("pushed waves") than when individuals proliferate independently ("pulled waves"), and increases only sub-linearly with deme size. To explain these and other findings, we develop a versatile analytical approach, based on the physics of reaction-diffusion systems, that yields simple predictions for any deterministic population dynamics. Our analytical theory compares well with the simulation results for pushed waves, but is less accurate in the case of pulled waves when stochastic fluctuations in the tip of the wave are important.
Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Elert, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)] [ed.
1996-09-01
zone concentration. Models considering faster net downward flow in the upper part of the root zone predict a more rapid decline in root zone concentration than models that assume a constant infiltration throughout the soil column. A sensitivity analysis performed on two of the models shows that the important parameters are the effective precipitation, the root water uptake and the soil K{sub d}-values. For the advection-dispersion model, the dispersion length is also important for the maximum flux to the groundwater. The amount of dispersion in radionuclide transport is of importance for the release to groundwater. For the box models, an inherent dispersion is obtained by the assumption of instantaneous mixing in the boxes. The degree of dispersion in the calculation will be a function of the size of the boxes. It is therefore important that division of the soil column is made with care in order to obtain the intended values. For many models the uncertainty calculations give very skewed distributions for the flux to the groundwater. In some cases the mean of the stochastic calculation can be several orders of magnitude higher than the value from the deterministic calculations. In relation to the objectives set up for this study it can be concluded that: The analysis of the relationship between uncertainty and model complexity proved to be a difficult task. For the studied scenario, the uncertainty in the model predictions does not have a simple relationship with the complexity of the models used. However, a complete analysis could not be performed since uncertainty results were not available for the full range of models and furthermore were not the uncertainty analysis always carried out in a consistent way. The predicted uncertainty associated with the concentration in the root zone does not show very much variation between the modelling approaches. For the predictions of the flux to groundwater, the simple models and the more complex gave very different results for
Courtney, H; Kirkland, J; Viguerie, P
1997-01-01
At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, executives can predict the future of any business accurately enough to allow them to choose a clear strategic direction. But what happens when the environment is so uncertain that no amount of analysis will allow us to predict the future? What makes for a good strategy in highly uncertain business environments? The authors, consultants at McKinsey & Company, argue that uncertainty requires a new way of thinking about strategy. All too often, they say, executives take a binary view: either they underestimate uncertainty to come up with the forecasts required by their companies' planning or capital-budging processes, or they overestimate it, abandon all analysis, and go with their gut instinct. The authors outline a new approach that begins by making a crucial distinction among four discrete levels of uncertainty that any company might face. They then explain how a set of generic strategies--shaping the market, adapting to it, or reserving the right to play at a later time--can be used in each of the four levels. And they illustrate how these strategies can be implemented through a combination of three basic types of actions: big bets, options, and no-regrets moves. The framework can help managers determine which analytic tools can inform decision making under uncertainty--and which cannot. At a broader level, it offers executives a discipline for thinking rigorously and systematically about uncertainty and its implications for strategy.
Faghihi, M. J.; Tavassoly, M. K.; Hooshmandasl, M. R.
2013-05-01
In this paper, the interaction between a $\\Lambda$-type three-level atom and two-mode cavity field is discussed. The detuning parameters and cross-Kerr nonlinearity are taken into account and it is assumed that atom-field coupling and Kerr medium to be $f$-deformed. Even though the system seems to be complicated, the analytical form of the state vector of the entire system for considered model is exactly obtained. The time evolution of nonclassical properties such as quantum entanglement and position-momentum entropic uncertainty relation (entropy squeezing) of the field are investigated. In each case, the influences of the detuning parameters, generalized Kerr medium and intensity-dependent coupling on the latter nonclassicality signs are analyzed, in detail.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Haws, L. [Exponent, Austin, TX (United States); Harris, M.; Santamaria, A. [Exponent, Houston, TX (United States); Su, S. [Exponent, New York, NY (United States); Birnbaum, L.; DeVito, M. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Farland, W. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Walker, N. [National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Connor, K. [Exponent, Natick, MA (United States); Finley, B. [Exponent, Santa Rosa, CA (United States)
2004-09-15
The toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach has been widely accepted as the most feasible and plausible method presently available for evaluating potential health risks associated with exposure to mixtures of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). In accordance with this approach, the relative potency of each congener is expressed as some fraction of the potency of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD). The current TEFs for PCDDs, PCDFs, and dioxin-like PCBs were established by the World Health Organization (WHO) following the meeting of an international expert panel in June of 1997. In the course of their review, the WHO expert panel examined data from an extensive body of in vivo and in vitro studies that had been compiled into a database of relative potency (REP) values by scientists at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Sweden (hereafter referred to as the Karolinska database). The WHO TEFs are currently used by numerous governmental agencies and others to regulate or otherwise assess health risks associated with exposure to PCDD/Fs and dioxin-like PCBs in foods, consumer products, and environmental media. As has been noted by others, for any given congener, the underlying REP values typically represent a heterogeneous data set, and the range of REPs often spans several orders of magnitude. It would therefore be helpful to better understand the degree to which the TEF values contribute to variability and uncertainty in the risk assessment process. As such, the goal of this project was to develop a database that will better characterize the range of REPs, allow for the development and application of quantitative weighting schemes, and facilitate quantitative analyses. This in turn will allow for better characterization of variability and uncertainty inherent in the mammalian TEFs. The development of this database was necessary since the Karolinska database was
Uncertainty in hydrological signatures for gauged and ungauged catchments
Westerberg, Ida K.; Wagener, Thorsten; Coxon, Gemma; McMillan, Hilary K.; Castellarin, Attilio; Montanari, Alberto; Freer, Jim
2016-03-01
Reliable information about hydrological behavior is needed for water-resource management and scientific investigations. Hydrological signatures quantify catchment behavior as index values, and can be predicted for ungauged catchments using a regionalization procedure. The prediction reliability is affected by data uncertainties for the gauged catchments used in prediction and by uncertainties in the regionalization procedure. We quantified signature uncertainty stemming from discharge data uncertainty for 43 UK catchments and propagated these uncertainties in signature regionalization, while accounting for regionalization uncertainty with a weighted-pooling-group approach. Discharge uncertainty was estimated using Monte Carlo sampling of multiple feasible rating curves. For each sampled rating curve, a discharge time series was calculated and used in deriving the gauged signature uncertainty distribution. We found that the gauged uncertainty varied with signature type, local measurement conditions and catchment behavior, with the highest uncertainties (median relative uncertainty ±30-40% across all catchments) for signatures measuring high- and low-flow magnitude and dynamics. Our regionalization method allowed assessing the role and relative magnitudes of the gauged and regionalized uncertainty sources in shaping the signature uncertainty distributions predicted for catchments treated as ungauged. We found that (1) if the gauged uncertainties were neglected there was a clear risk of overconditioning the regionalization inference, e.g., by attributing catchment differences resulting from gauged uncertainty to differences in catchment behavior, and (2) uncertainty in the regionalization results was lower for signatures measuring flow distribution (e.g., mean flow) than flow dynamics (e.g., autocorrelation), and for average flows (and then high flows) compared to low flows.
Rains, Stephen A; Tukachinsky, Riva
2015-01-01
Uncertainty management theory outlines the processes through which individuals cope with health-related uncertainty. Information seeking has been frequently documented as an important uncertainty management strategy. The reported study investigates exposure to specific types of medical information during a search, and one's information-processing orientation as predictors of successful uncertainty management (i.e., a reduction in the discrepancy between the level of uncertainty one feels and the level one desires). A lab study was conducted in which participants were primed to feel more or less certain about skin cancer and then were allowed to search the World Wide Web for skin cancer information. Participants' search behavior was recorded and content analyzed. The results indicate that exposure to two health communication constructs that pervade medical forms of uncertainty (i.e., severity and susceptibility) and information-processing orientation predicted uncertainty management success.
Snodin, D
2017-10-01
Over 10 years ago, propylparaben (propyl- p-hydroxybenzoate; PP) was withdrawn as a permitted food preservative in the EU based entirely on findings reported in a single dietary study in juvenile rats claiming to show adverse effects on male reproductive parameters [Oishi S. Effects of propyl paraben on the male reproductive system. Food Chem Toxicol 2002; 40(12): 1807 -1813]. Subsequent data reviews have cast serious doubt on the validity of the Oishi results, mainly in relation to aberrant concurrent-control values, and in two further comprehensive studies using neonatal and juvenile rats there were no adverse effects in males at oral doses up to 1000 mg/kg/day. By contrast, juvenile animal toxicity data on the two paraben preservatives currently permitted in the EU as food additives (methylparaben and ethylparaben) are non-robust and rudimentary. Although PP is a permitted preservative in cosmetics its use pattern is highly restricted based mainly on the results of a screening study in the rat using butylparaben as test material, and not taking into account the more recent data on PP. The European Medicines Agency has determined a permitted daily exposure of 2 mg/kg for PP, which applies to both adult and paediatric patients, based on an oral no-observed-adverse-effect level of 100 mg/kg/day in females, treatment-related changes suggestive of an estrogenic effect being noted at 1000 mg/kg/day. The weight of evidence strongly supports a toxicological re-evaluation of PP regarding its use in foodstuffs and cosmetics in the EU, with a view to reinstatement as a food additive, consistent with its status in other major jurisdictions.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jocelyn, Sabrina; Baudoin, James; Chinniah, Yuvin; Charpentier, Philippe
2014-01-01
In industry, machine users and people who modify or integrate equipment often have to evaluate the safety level of a safety-related control circuit that they have not necessarily designed. The modifications or integrations may involve work to make an existing machine that does not comply with normative or regulatory specifications safe. However, how can a circuit performing a safety function be validated a posteriori? Is the validation exercise feasible? What are the difficulties and limitations of such a procedure? The aim of this article is to answer these questions by presenting a validation study of a safety function of an existing machine. A plastic injection molding machine is used for this study, as well as standard ISO 13849-1:2006. Validation consists of performing an a posteriori (post-design) estimation of the performance level of the safety function. The procedure is studied for two contexts of use of the machine: in industry, and in laboratory. The calculations required by the ISO standard were done using Excel, followed by SIStema software. It is shown that, based on the context of use, the estimated performance level was different for the same safety-related circuit. The variability in the results is explained by the assumptions made by the person undertaking the validation without the involvement of the machine designer. - Highlights: • Validation of the performance level of a safety function is undertaken. • An injection molding machine and ISO 13849-1:2006 standard are used for the procedure. • The procedure is undertaken for two contexts of use of the machine. • In this study, the performance level depends on the context of use. • The assumptions made throughout the study partially explain this difference
Sources and performance criteria of uncertainty of reference measurement procedures.
Mosca, Andrea; Paleari, Renata
2018-05-29
This article wants to focus on the today available Reference Measurement Procedures (RMPs) for the determination of various analytes in Laboratory Medicine and the possible tools to evaluate their performance in the laboratories who are currently using them. A brief review on the RMPs has been performed by investigating the Joint Committee for Traceability in Laboratory Medicine (JCTLM) database. In order to evaluate their performances, we have checked the organization of three international ring trials, i.e. those regularly performed by the IFCC External Quality assessment scheme for Reference Laboratories in Laboratory Medicine (RELA), by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) cholesterol network and by the IFCC Network for HbA 1c . Several RMPs are available through the JCTLM database, but the best way to collect information about the RMPs and their uncertainties is to look at the reference measurement service providers (RMS). This part of the database and the background on how to listed in the database is very helpful for the assessment of expanded uncertainty (MU) and performance in general of RMPs. Worldwide, 17 RMS are listed in the database, and for most of the measurands more than one RMS is able to run the relative RMPs, with similar expanded uncertainties. As an example, for a-amylase, 4 SP offer their services with MU between 1.6 and 3.3%. In other cases (such as total cholesterol, the U may span over a broader range, i.e. from 0.02 to 3.6%). With regard to the performance evaluation, the approach is often heterogenous, and it is difficult to compare the performance of laboratories running the same RMP for the same measurand if involved in more than one EQAS. The reference measurement services have been created to help laboratory professionals and manufacturers to implement the correct metrological traceability, and the JCTLM database is the only correct way to retrieve all the necessary important information to this end. Copyright © 2018
The Uncertainty Test for the MAAP Computer Code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Park, S. H.; Song, Y. M.; Park, S. Y.; Ahn, K. I.; Kim, K. R.; Lee, Y. J.
2008-01-01
After the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) and Chernobyl accidents, safety issues for a severe accident are treated in various aspects. Major issues in our research part include a level 2 PSA. The difficulty in expanding the level 2 PSA as a risk information activity is the uncertainty. In former days, it attached a weight to improve the quality in a internal accident PSA, but the effort is insufficient for decrease the phenomenon uncertainty in the level 2 PSA. In our country, the uncertainty degree is high in the case of a level 2 PSA model, and it is necessary to secure a model to decrease the uncertainty. We have not yet experienced the uncertainty assessment technology, the assessment system itself depends on advanced nations. In advanced nations, the severe accident simulator is implemented in the hardware level. But in our case, basic function in a software level can be implemented. In these circumstance at home and abroad, similar instances are surveyed such as UQM and MELCOR. Referred to these instances, SAUNA (Severe Accident UNcertainty Analysis) system is being developed in our project to assess and decrease the uncertainty in a level 2 PSA. It selects the MAAP code to analyze the uncertainty in a severe accident
A Taxonomy of Medical Uncertainties in Clinical Genome Sequencing
Han, Paul K. J.; Umstead, Kendall L.; Bernhardt, Barbara A.; Green, Robert C.; Joffe, Steven; Koenig, Barbara; Krantz, Ian; Waterston, Leo B.; Biesecker, Leslie G.; Biesecker, Barbara B.
2017-01-01
Purpose Clinical next generation sequencing (CNGS) is introducing new opportunities and challenges into the practice of medicine. Simultaneously, these technologies are generating uncertainties of unprecedented scale that laboratories, clinicians, and patients are required to address and manage. We describe in this report the conceptual design of a new taxonomy of uncertainties around the use of CNGS in health care. Methods Interviews to delineate the dimensions of uncertainty in CNGS were conducted with genomics experts, and themes were extracted in order to expand upon a previously published three-dimensional taxonomy of medical uncertainty. In parallel we developed an interactive website to disseminate the CNGS taxonomy to researchers and engage them in its continued refinement. Results The proposed taxonomy divides uncertainty along three axes: source, issue, and locus, and further discriminates the uncertainties into five layers with multiple domains. Using a hypothetical clinical example, we illustrate how the taxonomy can be applied to findings from CNGS and used to guide stakeholders through interpretation and implementation of variant results. Conclusion The utility of the proposed taxonomy lies in promoting consistency in describing dimensions of uncertainty in publications and presentations, to facilitate research design and management of the uncertainties inherent in the implementation of CNGS. PMID:28102863
Flow boiling in expanding microchannels
Alam, Tamanna
2017-01-01
This Brief presents an up to date summary of details of the flow boiling heat transfer, pressure drop and instability characteristics; two phase flow patterns of expanding microchannels. Results obtained from the different expanding microscale geometries are presented for comparison and addition to that, comparison with literatures is also performed. Finally, parametric studies are performed and presented in the brief. The findings from this study could help in understanding the complex microscale flow boiling behavior and aid in the design and implementation of reliable compact heat sinks for practical applications.
Anota, Amélie; Mariet, Anne-Sophie; Maingon, Philippe; Joly, Florence; Bosset, Jean-François; Guizard, Anne-Valérie; Bittard, Hugues; Velten, Michel; Mercier, Mariette
2016-12-06
Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) has been positioned as one of the major endpoints in oncology. Thus, there is a need to validate cancer-site specific survey instruments. This study aimed to perform a transcultural adaptation of the 50-item Expanded Prostate cancer Index Composite (EPIC) questionnaire for HRQoL in prostate cancer patients and to validate the psychometric properties of the French-language version. The EPIC questionnaire measures urinary, bowel, sexual and hormonal domains. The first step, corresponding to transcultural adaptation of the original English version of the EPIC was performed according to the back translation technique. The second step, comprising the validation of the psychometric properties of the EPIC questionnaire, was performed in patients under treatment for localized prostate cancer (treatment group) and in patients cured of prostate cancer (cured group). The EORTC QLQ-C30 and QLQ-PR25 prostate cancer module were also completed by patients to assess criterion validity. Two assessments were performed, i.e., before and at the end of treatment for the Treatment group, to assess sensitivity to change; and at 2 weeks' interval in the Cured group to assess test-retest reliability. Psychometric properties were explored according to classical test theory. The first step showed overall good acceptability and understanding of the questionnaire. In the second step, 215 patients were included from January 2012 to June 2014: 125 in the Treatment group, and 90 in the Cured group. All domains exhibited good internal consistency, except the bowel domain (Cronbach's α = 0.61). No floor effect was observed. Test-retest reliability assessed in the cured group was acceptable, expect for bowel function (intraclass coefficient = 0.68). Criterion validity was good for each domain and subscale. Construct validity was not demonstrated for the hormonal and bowel domains. Sensitivity to change was exhibited for 5/8 subscales and 2/4 summary
Evaluation of uncertainty sources and propagation from irradiance sensors to PV yield
Mariottini, Francesco; Gottschalg, Ralph; Betts, Tom; Zhu, Jiang
2018-01-01
This work quantifies the uncertainties of a pyranometer. Sensitivity to errors is analysed regarding the effects generated by adopting different time resolutions. Estimation of irradiance measurand and error is extended throughout an annual data set. This study represents an attempt to provide a more exhaustive overview of both systematic (i.e. physical) and random uncertainties in the evaluation of pyranometer measurements. Starting from expanded uncertainty in a monitored ...
A model of entry-exit decisions and capacity choice under demand uncertainty
Isik, Murat; Coble, Keith H.; Hudson, Darren; House, Lisa O.
2003-01-01
Many investment decisions of agribusiness firms, such as when to invest in an emerging market or whether to expand the capacity of the firm, involve irreversible investment and uncertainty about demand, cost or competition. This paper uses an option-value model to examine the factors affecting an agribusiness firm's decision whether and how much to invest in an emerging market under demand uncertainty. Demand uncertainty and irreversibility of investment make investment less desirable than th...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lo Bianco, A.S.; Oliveira, H.P.S.; Peixoto, J.G.P., E-mail: abianco@ird.gov.b [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Lab. Nacional de Metrologia das Radiacoes Ionizantes (LNMRI)
2009-07-01
To implant the primary standard of the magnitude kerma in the air for X-ray between 10 - 50 keV, the National Metrology Laboratory of Ionizing Radiations (LNMRI) must evaluate all the uncertainties of measurement related with Victtoren chamber. So, it was evaluated the uncertainty of the kerma in the air consequent of the inaccuracy in the active volume of the chamber using the calculation of Monte Carlo as a tool through the Penelope software
Uncertainty representation of grey numbers and grey sets.
Yang, Yingjie; Liu, Sifeng; John, Robert
2014-09-01
In the literature, there is a presumption that a grey set and an interval-valued fuzzy set are equivalent. This presumption ignores the existence of discrete components in a grey number. In this paper, new measurements of uncertainties of grey numbers and grey sets, consisting of both absolute and relative uncertainties, are defined to give a comprehensive representation of uncertainties in a grey number and a grey set. Some simple examples are provided to illustrate that the proposed uncertainty measurement can give an effective representation of both absolute and relative uncertainties in a grey number and a grey set. The relationships between grey sets and interval-valued fuzzy sets are also analyzed from the point of view of the proposed uncertainty representation. The analysis demonstrates that grey sets and interval-valued fuzzy sets provide different but overlapping models for uncertainty representation in sets.
In Vitro Comparison of Self-Expanding Versus Balloon-Expandable Stents in a Human Ex Vivo Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grenacher, Lars; Rohde, Stefan; Gaenger, Ellen; Deutsch, Jochen; Kauffmann, Guenter W.; Richter, Goetz M.
2006-01-01
The objective was to compare the radial strength and expansile precision of self-expanding stents and balloon-expandable stents in a human cadaver bifurcation model. Seven different self-expanding (LUMINEXX, JOSTENT SelfX, JOSTENT SelfX hrf, Sinus-Repo, Sinus SuperFlex, Easy Wallstent, SMART) and four different balloon-expandable stent models (Palmaz, Sinus Stent, SAXX Medium, JOSTENT peripheral), each type 10 stents (total n = 110 stents) were implanted into the common iliac arteries of human cadaver corpses. The maximum stent diameter was 10 mm for all models. After stent implantation, the specimens were filled with silicone caoutchouc. After 24 h, the vascular walls including the stents were removed from the hardened casts. Diameters were taken and the weight of the cast cylinders was measured in air and in purified water to calculate the volume of the bodies (according to Archimedes Law) as a relative but precise degree for the radial strength of the implanted stents. The cylindrical casts of the self-expanding stents showed lower mean diameters (8.2 ± 1.0 mm) and mean volumes (0.60 ± 0.14 ml/cm) than in the balloon-expandable stent group (10.1 ± 0.3 mm and 0.71 ± 0.04 ml/cm, respectively; p < 0.01). The nominal maximum diameter of 10 mm was not achieved in any of the self-expanding stents, but this was achieved in more than 70% (29/40) of the balloon-expandable stent specimens (p < 0.05). The variation between achieved volumes was significantly larger in self-expanding (range: 0.23-0.78 ml/cm) than in balloon-expandable stents (range: 0.66-0.81 ml/cm; p < 0.05). Self-expanding stents presented considerably lower radial expansion force and lower degree of precision than balloon-expandable stents
Public Perception of Uncertainties Within Climate Change Science.
Visschers, Vivianne H M
2018-01-01
Climate change is a complex, multifaceted problem involving various interacting systems and actors. Therefore, the intensities, locations, and timeframes of the consequences of climate change are hard to predict and cause uncertainties. Relatively little is known about how the public perceives this scientific uncertainty and how this relates to their concern about climate change. In this article, an online survey among 306 Swiss people is reported that investigated whether people differentiate between different types of uncertainty in climate change research. Also examined was the way in which the perception of uncertainty is related to people's concern about climate change, their trust in science, their knowledge about climate change, and their political attitude. The results of a principal component analysis showed that respondents differentiated between perceived ambiguity in climate research, measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty about the future impact of climate change. Using structural equation modeling, it was found that only perceived ambiguity was directly related to concern about climate change, whereas measurement uncertainty and future uncertainty were not. Trust in climate science was strongly associated with each type of uncertainty perception and was indirectly associated with concern about climate change. Also, more knowledge about climate change was related to less strong perceptions of each type of climate science uncertainty. Hence, it is suggested that to increase public concern about climate change, it may be especially important to consider the perceived ambiguity about climate research. Efforts that foster trust in climate science also appear highly worthwhile. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
Religion in the face of uncertainty: an uncertainty-identity theory account of religiousness.
Hogg, Michael A; Adelman, Janice R; Blagg, Robert D
2010-02-01
The authors characterize religions as social groups and religiosity as the extent to which a person identifies with a religion, subscribes to its ideology or worldview, and conforms to its normative practices. They argue that religions have attributes that make them well suited to reduce feelings of self-uncertainty. According to uncertainty-identity theory, people are motivated to reduce feelings of uncertainty about or reflecting on self; and identification with groups, particularly highly entitative groups, is a very effective way to reduce uncertainty. All groups provide belief systems and normative prescriptions related to everyday life. However, religions also address the nature of existence, invoking sacred entities and associated rituals and ceremonies. They are entitative groups that provide a moral compass and rules for living that pervade a person's life, making them particularly attractive in times of uncertainty. The authors document data supporting their analysis and discuss conditions that transform religiosity into religious zealotry and extremism.
Investment and uncertainty in the international oil and gas industry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mohn, Klaus; Misund, Baard
2009-01-01
The standard theory of irreversible investments and real options suggests a negative relation between investment and uncertainty. Richer models with compound option structures open for a positive relationship. This paper presents a micro-econometric study of corporate investment and uncertainty in a period of market turbulence and restructuring in the international oil and gas industry. Based on data for 115 companies over the period 1992-2005, we estimate four different specifications of the q model of investment, with robust results for the uncertainty variables. The estimated models suggest that macroeconomic uncertainty creates a bottleneck for oil and gas investment and production, whereas industry-specific uncertainty has a stimulating effect. (author)
ICYESS 2013: Understanding and Interpreting Uncertainty
Rauser, F.; Niederdrenk, L.; Schemann, V.; Schmidt, A.; Suesser, D.; Sonntag, S.
2013-12-01
We will report the outcomes and highlights of the Interdisciplinary Conference of Young Earth System Scientists (ICYESS) on Understanding and Interpreting Uncertainty in September 2013, Hamburg, Germany. This conference is aimed at early career scientists (Masters to Postdocs) from a large variety of scientific disciplines and backgrounds (natural, social and political sciences) and will enable 3 days of discussions on a variety of uncertainty-related aspects: 1) How do we deal with implicit and explicit uncertainty in our daily scientific work? What is uncertain for us, and for which reasons? 2) How can we communicate these uncertainties to other disciplines? E.g., is uncertainty in cloud parameterization and respectively equilibrium climate sensitivity a concept that is understood equally well in natural and social sciences that deal with Earth System questions? Or vice versa, is, e.g., normative uncertainty as in choosing a discount rate relevant for natural scientists? How can those uncertainties be reconciled? 3) How can science communicate this uncertainty to the public? Is it useful at all? How are the different possible measures of uncertainty understood in different realms of public discourse? Basically, we want to learn from all disciplines that work together in the broad Earth System Science community how to understand and interpret uncertainty - and then transfer this understanding to the problem of how to communicate with the public, or its different layers / agents. ICYESS is structured in a way that participation is only possible via presentation, so every participant will give their own professional input into how the respective disciplines deal with uncertainty. Additionally, a large focus is put onto communication techniques; there are no 'standard presentations' in ICYESS. Keynote lectures by renowned scientists and discussions will lead to a deeper interdisciplinary understanding of what we do not really know, and how to deal with it. Many
Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert
2008-02-01
The general concept for risk assessment in accordance with the Swedish model for contaminated soil implies that the toxicological reference value for a given receptor is first back-calculated to a corresponding concentration of a compound in soil and (if applicable) then modified with respect to e.g. background levels, acute toxicity, and factor of safety. This result in a guideline value that is subsequently compared to the observed concentration levels. Many sources of uncertainty exist when assessing whether the risk for a receptor is significant or not. In this study, the uncertainty aspects have been addressed from three standpoints: 1. Uncertainty in the comparison between the level of contamination (source) and a given risk criterion (e.g. a guideline value) and possible implications on subsequent decisions. This type of uncertainty is considered to be most important in situations where a contaminant is expected to be spatially heterogeneous without any tendency to form isolated clusters (hotspots) that can be easily delineated, i.e. where mean values are appropriate to compare to the risk criterion. 2. Uncertainty in spatial distribution of a contaminant. Spatial uncertainty should be accounted for when hotspots are to be delineated and the volume of soil contaminated with levels above a stated decision criterion has to be assessed (quantified). 3. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation to spatial distribution of contaminant in question. The study points out that the choice of methodology to characterize the relation between contaminant concentration and a pre-defined risk criterion is governed by a conceptual perception of the contaminant's spatial distribution and also depends on the structure of collected data (observations). How uncertainty in transition from contaminant concentration into risk criterion can be quantified was demonstrated by applying hypothesis tests and the concept of
Stability of expanded plasma focus
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soliman, H.M.
1994-01-01
In this study, the stabilization of the expanded plasma focus formed by 4.5 kJ plasma focus device of Mather type by magnetic field is presented. The experimental results of the induced axial magnetic field and electric probe measurements of the expanded plasma focus show that, the plasma consists of three plasmoids, electron temperature measurements off the plasmoids at a point close to the muzzle are 26 eV, 30 eV and 27 eV respectively and the electron densities are 6.6 x 10 14 , 6.1 x 10 14 / cm 3 respectively. The presence of external axial magnetic field (B 2 = 1.6 kg) at the mid distance between the breech and the muzzle has a less effect on the stability of expanded focus and it causes a restriction for the plasma motion. the electron temperature of the three plasmoids are found to increase in that case by 23%, 18.5% respectively. When this axial magnetic field is applied at the muzzle end, it leads to a more stable expanded plasma focus which consists mainly of one plasmoid with electron temperature of 39 eV and density of 3.4 x 10 14 / cm 3 . 5 figs
'In situ' expanded graphite extinguishant
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cao Qixin; Shou Yuemei; He Bangrong
1987-01-01
This report is concerning the development of the extinguishant for sodium fire and the investigation of its extinguishing property. The experiment result shows that 'in situ' expanded graphite developed by the authors is a kind of extinguishant which extinguishes sodium fire quickly and effectively and has no environment pollution during use and the amount of usage is little
EFFECT OF INCORPORATING EXPANDED POLYSTYRENE ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2012-11-03
Nov 3, 2012 ... Incorporating expanded polystyrene granules in concrete matrix can produce lightweight polystyrene aggregate concrete of ... structure. [1] reported that the standard workability tests are not suitable for the polystyrene aggregate concrete since they are sensitive to the unit weight of concrete. [2] made ...
Expanding the Universe of Education.
Parsons, Elizabeth
1996-01-01
Definitions of "education" and "rural" are debunked and expanded. The three major tasks of rural education are educating people to understand their own needs, the unavoidable changes that will transform rural Australia within their lifetimes, and the range of technologies that can enhance their well-being. Presents a strategy…
Uncertainty in adaptive capacity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Neil Adger, W.; Vincent, K.
2005-01-01
The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. (authors)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Laval, Katia; Laval, Guy
2013-01-01
Like meteorology, climatology is not an exact science: climate change forecasts necessarily include a share of uncertainty. It is precisely this uncertainty which is brandished and exploited by the opponents to the global warming theory to put into question the estimations of its future consequences. Is it legitimate to predict the future using the past climate data (well documented up to 100000 years BP) or the climates of other planets, taking into account the impreciseness of the measurements and the intrinsic complexity of the Earth's machinery? How is it possible to model a so huge and interwoven system for which any exact description has become impossible? Why water and precipitations play such an important role in local and global forecasts, and how should they be treated? This book written by two physicists answers with simpleness these delicate questions in order to give anyone the possibility to build his own opinion about global warming and the need to act rapidly
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Martens, Hans.
1991-01-01
The subject of this thesis is the uncertainty principle (UP). The UP is one of the most characteristic points of differences between quantum and classical mechanics. The starting point of this thesis is the work of Niels Bohr. Besides the discussion the work is also analyzed. For the discussion of the different aspects of the UP the formalism of Davies and Ludwig is used instead of the more commonly used formalism of Neumann and Dirac. (author). 214 refs.; 23 figs
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
2010-11-01
A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions
Economic uncertainty principle?
Alexander Harin
2006-01-01
The economic principle of (hidden) uncertainty is presented. New probability formulas are offered. Examples of solutions of three types of fundamental problems are reviewed.; Principe d'incertitude économique? Le principe économique d'incertitude (cachée) est présenté. De nouvelles formules de chances sont offertes. Les exemples de solutions des trois types de problèmes fondamentaux sont reconsidérés.
Citizen Candidates Under Uncertainty
Eguia, Jon X.
2005-01-01
In this paper we make two contributions to the growing literature on "citizen-candidate" models of representative democracy. First, we add uncertainty about the total vote count. We show that in a society with a large electorate, where the outcome of the election is uncertain and where winning candidates receive a large reward from holding office, there will be a two-candidate equilibrium and no equilibria with a single candidate. Second, we introduce a new concept of equilibrium, which we te...
Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.
1995-12-31
A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.
Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty - A Joint CEC/USNRC Study
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gregory, Julie J.; Harper, Frederick T.
1999-01-01
The joint USNRC/CEC consequence uncertainty study was chartered after the development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS in the U.S. and COSYMA in Europe. Both the USNRC and CEC had a vested interest in expanding the knowledge base of the uncertainty associated with consequence modeling, and teamed up to co-sponsor a consequence uncertainty study. The information acquired from the study was expected to provide understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of current models as well as a basis for direction of future research. This paper looks at the elicitation process implemented in the joint study and discusses some of the uncertainty distributions provided by eight panels of experts from the U.S. and Europe that were convened to provide responses to the elicitation. The phenomenological areas addressed by the expert panels include atmospheric dispersion and deposition, deposited material and external doses, food chain, early health effects, late health effects and internal dosimetry
Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty - A Joint CEC/USNRC Study
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gregory, Julie J.; Harper, Frederick T.
1999-07-28
The joint USNRC/CEC consequence uncertainty study was chartered after the development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS in the U.S. and COSYMA in Europe. Both the USNRC and CEC had a vested interest in expanding the knowledge base of the uncertainty associated with consequence modeling, and teamed up to co-sponsor a consequence uncertainty study. The information acquired from the study was expected to provide understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of current models as well as a basis for direction of future research. This paper looks at the elicitation process implemented in the joint study and discusses some of the uncertainty distributions provided by eight panels of experts from the U.S. and Europe that were convened to provide responses to the elicitation. The phenomenological areas addressed by the expert panels include atmospheric dispersion and deposition, deposited material and external doses, food chain, early health effects, late health effects and internal dosimetry.
Uncertainty quantification for environmental models
Hill, Mary C.; Lu, Dan; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.; Ye, Ming
2012-01-01
Environmental models are used to evaluate the fate of fertilizers in agricultural settings (including soil denitrification), the degradation of hydrocarbons at spill sites, and water supply for people and ecosystems in small to large basins and cities—to mention but a few applications of these models. They also play a role in understanding and diagnosing potential environmental impacts of global climate change. The models are typically mildly to extremely nonlinear. The persistent demand for enhanced dynamics and resolution to improve model realism [17] means that lengthy individual model execution times will remain common, notwithstanding continued enhancements in computer power. In addition, high-dimensional parameter spaces are often defined, which increases the number of model runs required to quantify uncertainty [2]. Some environmental modeling projects have access to extensive funding and computational resources; many do not. The many recent studies of uncertainty quantification in environmental model predictions have focused on uncertainties related to data error and sparsity of data, expert judgment expressed mathematically through prior information, poorly known parameter values, and model structure (see, for example, [1,7,9,10,13,18]). Approaches for quantifying uncertainty include frequentist (potentially with prior information [7,9]), Bayesian [13,18,19], and likelihood-based. A few of the numerous methods, including some sensitivity and inverse methods with consequences for understanding and quantifying uncertainty, are as follows: Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Bayesian model averaging; single-objective optimization with error-based weighting [7] and multi-objective optimization [3]; methods based on local derivatives [2,7,10]; screening methods like OAT (one at a time) and the method of Morris [14]; FAST (Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing) [14]; the Sobol' method [14]; randomized maximum likelihood [10]; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [10
Calibration Under Uncertainty.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Swiler, Laura Painton; Trucano, Timothy Guy
2005-03-01
This report is a white paper summarizing the literature and different approaches to the problem of calibrating computer model parameters in the face of model uncertainty. Model calibration is often formulated as finding the parameters that minimize the squared difference between the model-computed data (the predicted data) and the actual experimental data. This approach does not allow for explicit treatment of uncertainty or error in the model itself: the model is considered the %22true%22 deterministic representation of reality. While this approach does have utility, it is far from an accurate mathematical treatment of the true model calibration problem in which both the computed data and experimental data have error bars. This year, we examined methods to perform calibration accounting for the error in both the computer model and the data, as well as improving our understanding of its meaning for model predictability. We call this approach Calibration under Uncertainty (CUU). This talk presents our current thinking on CUU. We outline some current approaches in the literature, and discuss the Bayesian approach to CUU in detail.
Participation under Uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Boudourides, Moses A.
2003-01-01
This essay reviews a number of theoretical perspectives about uncertainty and participation in the present-day knowledge-based society. After discussing the on-going reconfigurations of science, technology and society, we examine how appropriate for policy studies are various theories of social complexity. Post-normal science is such an example of a complexity-motivated approach, which justifies civic participation as a policy response to an increasing uncertainty. But there are different categories and models of uncertainties implying a variety of configurations of policy processes. A particular role in all of them is played by expertise whose democratization is an often-claimed imperative nowadays. Moreover, we discuss how different participatory arrangements are shaped into instruments of policy-making and framing regulatory processes. As participation necessitates and triggers deliberation, we proceed to examine the role and the barriers of deliberativeness. Finally, we conclude by referring to some critical views about the ultimate assumptions of recent European policy frameworks and the conceptions of civic participation and politicization that they invoke
Uncertainty analysis techniques
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marivoet, J.; Saltelli, A.; Cadelli, N.
1987-01-01
The origin of the uncertainty affecting Performance Assessments, as well as their propagation to dose and risk results is discussed. The analysis is focused essentially on the uncertainties introduced by the input parameters, the values of which may range over some orders of magnitude and may be given as probability distribution function. The paper briefly reviews the existing sampling techniques used for Monte Carlo simulations and the methods for characterizing the output curves, determining their convergence and confidence limits. Annual doses, expectation values of the doses and risks are computed for a particular case of a possible repository in clay, in order to illustrate the significance of such output characteristics as the mean, the logarithmic mean and the median as well as their ratios. The report concludes that provisionally, due to its better robustness, such estimation as the 90th percentile may be substituted to the arithmetic mean for comparison of the estimated doses with acceptance criteria. In any case, the results obtained through Uncertainty Analyses must be interpreted with caution as long as input data distribution functions are not derived from experiments reasonably reproducing the situation in a well characterized repository and site
SCALE Validation Experience Using an Expanded Isotopic Assay Database for Spent Nuclear Fuel
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gauld, Ian C.; Radulescu, Georgeta; Ilas, Germina
2009-01-01
The availability of measured isotopic assay data to validate computer code predictions of spent fuel compositions applied in burnup-credit criticality calculations is an essential component for bias and uncertainty determination in safety and licensing analyses. In recent years, as many countries move closer to implementing or expanding the use of burnup credit in criticality safety for licensing, there has been growing interest in acquiring additional high-quality assay data. The well-known open sources of assay data are viewed as potentially limiting for validating depletion calculations for burnup credit due to the relatively small number of isotopes measured (primarily actinides with relatively few fission products), sometimes large measurement uncertainties, incomplete documentation, and the limited burnup and enrichment range of the fuel samples. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) recently initiated an extensive isotopic validation study that includes most of the public data archived in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA) electronic database, SFCOMPO, and new datasets obtained through participation in commercial experimental programs. To date, ORNL has analyzed approximately 120 different spent fuel samples from pressurized-water reactors that span a wide enrichment and burnup range and represent a broad class of assembly designs. The validation studies, completed using SCALE 5.1, are being used to support a technical basis for expanded implementation of burnup credit for spent fuel storage facilities, and other spent fuel analyses including radiation source term, dose assessment, decay heat, and waste repository safety analyses. This paper summarizes the isotopic assay data selected for this study, presents validation results obtained with SCALE 5.1, and discusses some of the challenges and experience associated with evaluating the results. Preliminary results obtained using SCALE 6 and ENDF
Methodologies of Uncertainty Propagation Calculation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chojnacki, Eric
2002-01-01
After recalling the theoretical principle and the practical difficulties of the methodologies of uncertainty propagation calculation, the author discussed how to propagate input uncertainties. He said there were two kinds of input uncertainty: - variability: uncertainty due to heterogeneity, - lack of knowledge: uncertainty due to ignorance. It was therefore necessary to use two different propagation methods. He demonstrated this in a simple example which he generalised, treating the variability uncertainty by the probability theory and the lack of knowledge uncertainty by the fuzzy theory. He cautioned, however, against the systematic use of probability theory which may lead to unjustifiable and illegitimate precise answers. Mr Chojnacki's conclusions were that the importance of distinguishing variability and lack of knowledge increased as the problem was getting more and more complex in terms of number of parameters or time steps, and that it was necessary to develop uncertainty propagation methodologies combining probability theory and fuzzy theory
LOFT uncertainty-analysis methodology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lassahn, G.D.
1983-01-01
The methodology used for uncertainty analyses of measurements in the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) nuclear-reactor-safety research program is described and compared with other methodologies established for performing uncertainty analyses
LOFT uncertainty-analysis methodology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lassahn, G.D.
1983-01-01
The methodology used for uncertainty analyses of measurements in the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) nuclear reactor safety research program is described and compared with other methodologies established for performing uncertainty analyses
Uncertainties and reliability theories for reactor safety
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Veneziano, D.
1975-01-01
What makes the safety problem of nuclear reactors particularly challenging is the demand for high levels of reliability and the limitation of statistical information. The latter is an unfortunate circumstance, which forces deductive theories of reliability to use models and parameter values with weak factual support. The uncertainty about probabilistic models and parameters which are inferred from limited statistical evidence can be quantified and incorporated rationally into inductive theories of reliability. In such theories, the starting point is the information actually available, as opposed to an estimated probabilistic model. But, while the necessity of introducing inductive uncertainty into reliability theories has been recognized by many authors, no satisfactory inductive theory is presently available. The paper presents: a classification of uncertainties and of reliability models for reactor safety; a general methodology to include these uncertainties into reliability analysis; a discussion about the relative advantages and the limitations of various reliability theories (specifically, of inductive and deductive, parametric and nonparametric, second-moment and full-distribution theories). For example, it is shown that second-moment theories, which were originally suggested to cope with the scarcity of data, and which have been proposed recently for the safety analysis of secondary containment vessels, are the least capable of incorporating statistical uncertainty. The focus is on reliability models for external threats (seismic accelerations and tornadoes). As an application example, the effect of statistical uncertainty on seismic risk is studied using parametric full-distribution models
Heisenberg Uncertainty Relation in Quantum Liouville Equation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Davide Valenti
2009-01-01
Fourier transform of the density matrix ρ(z,y,t = ψ∗(z,tψ(y,t. We find again that the variances of x and v obtained by using ρ(z, y,t are respectively equal to the variances of X^ and P^ calculated in ψ(x,t. Finally we introduce the matrix ∥Ann′(t∥ and we show that a generic square-integrable function g(x,v,t can be written as Fourier transform of a density matrix, provided that the matrix ∥Ann′(t∥ is diagonalizable.
Minimal length uncertainty relation and ultraviolet regularization
Kempf, Achim; Mangano, Gianpiero
1997-06-01
Studies in string theory and quantum gravity suggest the existence of a finite lower limit Δx0 to the possible resolution of distances, at the latest on the scale of the Planck length of 10-35 m. Within the framework of the Euclidean path integral we explicitly show ultraviolet regularization in field theory through this short distance structure. Both rotation and translation invariance can be preserved. An example is studied in detail.
On the relationship between aerosol model uncertainty and radiative forcing uncertainty.
Lee, Lindsay A; Reddington, Carly L; Carslaw, Kenneth S
2016-05-24
The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by the interaction of aerosols with clouds. Historical forcing is not a directly measurable quantity, so reliable assessments depend on the development of global models of aerosols and clouds that are well constrained by observations. However, there has been no systematic assessment of how reduction in the uncertainty of global aerosol models will feed through to the uncertainty in the predicted forcing. We use a global model perturbed parameter ensemble to show that tight observational constraint of aerosol concentrations in the model has a relatively small effect on the aerosol-related uncertainty in the calculated forcing between preindustrial and present-day periods. One factor is the low sensitivity of present-day aerosol to natural emissions that determine the preindustrial aerosol state. However, the major cause of the weak constraint is that the full uncertainty space of the model generates a large number of model variants that are equally acceptable compared to present-day aerosol observations. The narrow range of aerosol concentrations in the observationally constrained model gives the impression of low aerosol model uncertainty. However, these multiple "equifinal" models predict a wide range of forcings. To make progress, we need to develop a much deeper understanding of model uncertainty and ways to use observations to constrain it. Equifinality in the aerosol model means that tuning of a small number of model processes to achieve model-observation agreement could give a misleading impression of model robustness.
Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?
Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G.; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert
2016-01-01
Much of the decision-making in orthopaedics rests on uncertain evidence. Uncertainty is therefore part of our normal daily practice, and yet physician uncertainty regarding treatment could diminish patients' health. It is not known if physician uncertainty is a function of the evidence alone or if
Expanding the Game Design Space
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Lasse Juel; Majgaard, Gunver
2016-01-01
This article considers game design research in educational settings. Its focus is on how undergraduate students – particularly engineering students – learn computer game design. From observations conducted during our game design courses we have developed a model of expanded game design space...... layer establishes correspondence between formal elements of computer games and the structure of problem-based creativity. It addresses how game design challenges should be formulated and how creative solutions can be measured. The fourth and final layer demonstrates how clear framing can act....... It encapsulates the entire development process from the first ideas to the final game with emphasis on game design thinking. Our model of expanded game design space consists of four separate – yet interconnected – layers in the process of game development. The first layer addresses the importance of framing...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Faria, L.E.; Christopher, E.H.
1987-01-01
In an expander for use in a split Stirling cycle refrigeration system of the type wherein a displacer moves with reciprocating motion inside an expander housing, and wherein a plunger force and a regenerator force are formed on the displacer, the plunger force cyclically varying and having a time of minimum and maximum plunger force amplitude, and the regenerator force cyclically varying and having a time of minimum and maximum regenerator force amplitude, the improvement is described comprising: (a) means for maintaining displacer forces, such that the maximum plunger force amplitude is substantially equal to the maximum regenerator force amplitude; and (b) means for adjusting a time difference, the time difference being the time between the time of maximum plunger force and the time of maximum regenerator force such that a measure of the cooling power of the refrigeration system is maximized
Image restoration, uncertainty, and information.
Yu, F T
1969-01-01
Some of the physical interpretations about image restoration are discussed. From the theory of information the unrealizability of an inverse filter can be explained by degradation of information, which is due to distortion on the recorded image. The image restoration is a time and space problem, which can be recognized from the theory of relativity (the problem of image restoration is related to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics). A detailed discussion of the relationship between information and energy is given. Two general results may be stated: (1) the restoration of the image from the distorted signal is possible only if it satisfies the detectability condition. However, the restored image, at the best, can only approach to the maximum allowable time criterion. (2) The restoration of an image by superimposing the distorted signal (due to smearing) is a physically unrealizable method. However, this restoration procedure may be achieved by the expenditure of an infinite amount of energy.
Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen
2012-01-01
This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario......-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project. The presentation of RSF is demonstrated by using an appraisal case concerning a new airfield in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk....
DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES: AN EXPANDED VIEW
JAMES M. UTTERBACK; HAPPY J. ACEE
2005-01-01
The term "disruptive technology" as coined by Christensen (1997, The Innovator's Dilemma; How New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail. Harvard Business School Press) refers to a new technology having lower cost and performance measured by traditional criteria, but having higher ancillary performance. Christensen finds that disruptive technologies may enter and expand emerging market niches, improving with time and ultimately attacking established products in their traditional markets. This...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Greasley, David; Madsen, Jakob B.
2006-01-01
A severe collapse of fixed capital formation distinguished the onset of the Great Depression from other investment downturns between the world wars. Using a model estimated for the years 1890-2000, we show that the expected profitability of capital measured by Tobin's q, and the uncertainty...... surrounding expected profits indicated by share price volatility, were the chief influences on investment levels, and that heightened share price volatility played the dominant role in the crucial investment collapse in 1930. Investment did not simply follow the downward course of income at the onset...
Optimization under Uncertainty
Lopez, Rafael H.
2016-01-06
The goal of this poster is to present the main approaches to optimization of engineering systems in the presence of uncertainties. We begin by giving an insight about robust optimization. Next, we detail how to deal with probabilistic constraints in optimization, the so called the reliability based design. Subsequently, we present the risk optimization approach, which includes the expected costs of failure in the objective function. After that the basic description of each approach is given, the projects developed by CORE are presented. Finally, the main current topic of research of CORE is described.
Optimizing production under uncertainty
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Svend
This Working Paper derives criteria for optimal production under uncertainty based on the state-contingent approach (Chambers and Quiggin, 2000), and discusses po-tential problems involved in applying the state-contingent approach in a normative context. The analytical approach uses the concept...... of state-contingent production functions and a definition of inputs including both sort of input, activity and alloca-tion technology. It also analyses production decisions where production is combined with trading in state-contingent claims such as insurance contracts. The final part discusses...
Commonplaces and social uncertainty
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lassen, Inger
2008-01-01
This article explores the concept of uncertainty in four focus group discussions about genetically modified food. In the discussions, members of the general public interact with food biotechnology scientists while negotiating their attitudes towards genetic engineering. Their discussions offer...... an example of risk discourse in which the use of commonplaces seems to be a central feature (Myers 2004: 81). My analyses support earlier findings that commonplaces serve important interactional purposes (Barton 1999) and that they are used for mitigating disagreement, for closing topics and for facilitating...
Kadane, Joseph B
2011-01-01
An intuitive and mathematical introduction to subjective probability and Bayesian statistics. An accessible, comprehensive guide to the theory of Bayesian statistics, Principles of Uncertainty presents the subjective Bayesian approach, which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Both rigorous and friendly, the book contains: Introductory chapters examining each new concept or assumption Just-in-time mathematics -- the presentation of ideas just before they are applied Summary and exercises at the end of each chapter Discus
Mathematical Analysis of Uncertainty
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Angel GARRIDO
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Classical Logic showed early its insufficiencies for solving AI problems. The introduction of Fuzzy Logic aims at this problem. There have been research in the conventional Rough direction alone or in the Fuzzy direction alone, and more recently, attempts to combine both into Fuzzy Rough Sets or Rough Fuzzy Sets. We analyse some new and powerful tools in the study of Uncertainty, as the Probabilistic Graphical Models, Chain Graphs, Bayesian Networks, and Markov Networks, integrating our knowledge of graphs and probability.
Probabilistic Mass Growth Uncertainties
Plumer, Eric; Elliott, Darren
2013-01-01
Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.
THE CORONAL LOOP INVENTORY PROJECT: EXPANDED ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schmelz, J. T. [USRA, 7178 Columbia Gateway Drive, Columbia, MD 21046 (United States); Christian, G. M.; Chastain, R. A., E-mail: jschmelz@usra.edu [Physics Department, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN 38152 (United States)
2016-11-10
We have expanded upon earlier work that investigates the relative importance of coronal loops with isothermal versus multithermal cross-field temperature distributions. These results are important for determining if loops have substructure in the form of unresolved magnetic strands. We have increased the number of loops targeted for temperature analysis from 19 to 207 with the addition of 188 new loops from multiple regions. We selected all loop segments visible in the 171 Å images of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) that had a clean background. Eighty-six of the new loops were rejected because they could not be reliably separated from the background in other AIA filters. Sixty-one loops required multithermal models to reproduce the observations. Twenty-eight loops were effectively isothermal, that is, the plasma emission to which AIA is sensitive could not be distinguished from isothermal emission, within uncertainties. Ten loops were isothermal. Also, part of our inventory was one small flaring loop, one very cool loop whose temperature distribution could not be constrained by the AIA data, and one loop with inconclusive results. Our survey can confirm an unexpected result from the pilot study: we found no isothermal loop segments where we could properly use the 171-to-193 ratio method, which would be similar to the analysis done for many loops observed with TRACE and EIT. We recommend caution to observers who assume the loop plasma is isothermal, and hope that these results will influence the direction of coronal heating models and the effort modelers spend on various heating scenarios.
Expandable antivibration bar for a steam generator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lagally, H.O.
1986-01-01
A steam generator tube support structure comprises expandable antivibration bars positioned between rows of tubes in the steam generator and attached to retaining rings surrounding the bundle of tubes. The antivibration bars have adjacent bar sections with mating surfaces formed as inclined planes which upon relative longitudinal motion between the upper and lower bars provides a means to increase the overall thickness across the structure to the required value. The bar section is retained against longitudinal movement in take-up assembly whereas the bar section is movable longitudinally by rotation of a nut. (author)
Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology.
Milner-Gulland, E J; Shea, K
2017-12-01
Applied ecologists often face uncertainty that hinders effective decision-making.Common traps that may catch the unwary are: ignoring uncertainty, acknowledging uncertainty but ploughing on, focussing on trivial uncertainties, believing your models, and unclear objectives.We integrate research insights and examples from a wide range of applied ecological fields to illustrate advances that are generally underused, but could facilitate ecologists' ability to plan and execute research to support management.Recommended approaches to avoid uncertainty traps are: embracing models, using decision theory, using models more effectively, thinking experimentally, and being realistic about uncertainty. Synthesis and applications . Applied ecologists can become more effective at informing management by using approaches that explicitly take account of uncertainty.