How Do Simulated Error Experiences Impact Attitudes Related to Error Prevention?

Science.gov (United States)

Breitkreuz, Karen R; Dougal, Renae L; Wright, Melanie C

2016-10-01

The objective of this project was to determine whether simulated exposure to error situations changes attitudes in a way that may have a positive impact on error prevention behaviors. Using a stratified quasi-randomized experiment design, we compared risk perception attitudes of a control group of nursing students who received standard error education (reviewed medication error content and watched movies about error experiences) to an experimental group of students who reviewed medication error content and participated in simulated error experiences. Dependent measures included perceived memorability of the educational experience, perceived frequency of errors, and perceived caution with respect to preventing errors. Experienced nursing students perceived the simulated error experiences to be more memorable than movies. Less experienced students perceived both simulated error experiences and movies to be highly memorable. After the intervention, compared with movie participants, simulation participants believed errors occurred more frequently. Both types of education increased the participants' intentions to be more cautious and reported caution remained higher than baseline for medication errors 6 months after the intervention. This study provides limited evidence of an advantage of simulation over watching movies describing actual errors with respect to manipulating attitudes related to error prevention. Both interventions resulted in long-term impacts on perceived caution in medication administration. Simulated error experiences made participants more aware of how easily errors can occur, and the movie education made participants more aware of the devastating consequences of errors.

Statistical theory for estimating sampling errors of regional radiation averages based on satellite measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, G. L.; Bess, T. D.; Minnis, P.

1983-01-01

The processes which determine the weather and climate are driven by the radiation received by the earth and the radiation subsequently emitted. A knowledge of the absorbed and emitted components of radiation is thus fundamental for the study of these processes. In connection with the desire to improve the quality of long-range forecasting, NASA is developing the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), consisting of a three-channel scanning radiometer and a package of nonscanning radiometers. A set of these instruments is to be flown on both the NOAA-F and NOAA-G spacecraft, in sun-synchronous orbits, and on an Earth Radiation Budget Satellite. The purpose of the scanning radiometer is to obtain measurements from which the average reflected solar radiant exitance and the average earth-emitted radiant exitance at a reference level can be established. The estimate of regional average exitance obtained will not exactly equal the true value of the regional average exitance, but will differ due to spatial sampling. A method is presented for evaluating this spatial sampling error.

40 CFR 600.510-12 - Calculation of average fuel economy and average carbon-related exhaust emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... and average carbon-related exhaust emissions. 600.510-12 Section 600.510-12 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) ENERGY POLICY FUEL ECONOMY AND CARBON-RELATED EXHAUST EMISSIONS OF... Transportation. (iv) [Reserved] (2) Average carbon-related exhaust emissions will be calculated to the nearest...

Assimilation of time-averaged observations in a quasi-geostrophic atmospheric jet model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huntley, Helga S. [University of Washington, Department of Applied Mathematics, Seattle, WA (United States); University of Delaware, School of Marine Science and Policy, Newark, DE (United States); Hakim, Gregory J. [University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA (United States)

2010-11-15

The problem of reconstructing past climates from a sparse network of noisy time-averaged observations is considered with a novel ensemble Kalman filter approach. Results for a sparse network of 100 idealized observations for a quasi-geostrophic model of a jet interacting with a mountain reveal that, for a wide range of observation averaging times, analysis errors are reduced by about 50% relative to the control case without assimilation. Results are robust to changes to observational error, the number of observations, and an imperfect model. Specifically, analysis errors are reduced relative to the control case for observations having errors up to three times the climatological variance for a fixed 100-station network, and for networks consisting of ten or more stations when observational errors are fixed at one-third the climatological variance. In the limit of small numbers of observations, station location becomes critically important, motivating an optimally determined network. A network of fifteen optimally determined observations reduces analysis errors by 30% relative to the control, as compared to 50% for a randomly chosen network of 100 observations. (orig.)

An overview of intravenous-related medication administration errors as reported to MEDMARX, a national medication error-reporting program.

Science.gov (United States)

Hicks, Rodney W; Becker, Shawn C

2006-01-01

Medication errors can be harmful, especially if they involve the intravenous (IV) route of administration. A mixed-methodology study using a 5-year review of 73,769 IV-related medication errors from a national medication error reporting program indicates that between 3% and 5% of these errors were harmful. The leading type of error was omission, and the leading cause of error involved clinician performance deficit. Using content analysis, three themes-product shortage, calculation errors, and tubing interconnectivity-emerge and appear to predispose patients to harm. Nurses often participate in IV therapy, and these findings have implications for practice and patient safety. Voluntary medication error-reporting programs afford an opportunity to improve patient care and to further understanding about the nature of IV-related medication errors.

Error-related potentials during continuous feedback: using EEG to detect errors of different type and severity

Science.gov (United States)

Spüler, Martin; Niethammer, Christian

2015-01-01

When a person recognizes an error during a task, an error-related potential (ErrP) can be measured as response. It has been shown that ErrPs can be automatically detected in tasks with time-discrete feedback, which is widely applied in the field of Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) for error correction or adaptation. However, there are only a few studies that concentrate on ErrPs during continuous feedback. With this study, we wanted to answer three different questions: (i) Can ErrPs be measured in electroencephalography (EEG) recordings during a task with continuous cursor control? (ii) Can ErrPs be classified using machine learning methods and is it possible to discriminate errors of different origins? (iii) Can we use EEG to detect the severity of an error? To answer these questions, we recorded EEG data from 10 subjects during a video game task and investigated two different types of error (execution error, due to inaccurate feedback; outcome error, due to not achieving the goal of an action). We analyzed the recorded data to show that during the same task, different kinds of error produce different ErrP waveforms and have a different spectral response. This allows us to detect and discriminate errors of different origin in an event-locked manner. By utilizing the error-related spectral response, we show that also a continuous, asynchronous detection of errors is possible. Although the detection of error severity based on EEG was one goal of this study, we did not find any significant influence of the severity on the EEG. PMID:25859204

Error-related potentials during continuous feedback: using EEG to detect errors of different type and severity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin eSpüler

2015-03-01

Full Text Available When a person recognizes an error during a task, an error-related potential (ErrP can be measured as response. It has been shown that ErrPs can be automatically detected in tasks with time-discrete feedback, which is widely applied in the field of Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs for error correction or adaptation. However, there are only a few studies that concentrate on ErrPs during continuous feedback.With this study, we wanted to answer three different questions: (i Can ErrPs be measured in electroencephalography (EEG recordings during a task with continuous cursor control? (ii Can ErrPs be classified using machine learning methods and is it possible to discriminate errors of different origins? (iii Can we use EEG to detect the severity of an error? To answer these questions, we recorded EEG data from 10 subjects during a video game task and investigated two different types of error (execution error, due to inaccurate feedback; outcome error, due to not achieving the goal of an action. We analyzed the recorded data to show that during the same task, different kinds of error produce different ErrP waveforms and have a different spectral response. This allows us to detect and discriminate errors of different origin in an event-locked manner. By utilizing the error-related spectral response, we show that also a continuous, asynchronous detection of errors is possible.Although the detection of error severity based on EEG was one goal of this study, we did not find any significant influence of the severity on the EEG.

Challenge and Error: Critical Events and Attention-Related Errors

Science.gov (United States)

Cheyne, James Allan; Carriere, Jonathan S. A.; Solman, Grayden J. F.; Smilek, Daniel

2011-01-01

Attention lapses resulting from reactivity to task challenges and their consequences constitute a pervasive factor affecting everyday performance errors and accidents. A bidirectional model of attention lapses (error [image omitted] attention-lapse: Cheyne, Solman, Carriere, & Smilek, 2009) argues that errors beget errors by generating attention…

Event-Related Potentials for Post-Error and Post-Conflict Slowing

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Andrew; Chen, Chien-Chung; Li, Hsin-Hung; Li, Chiang-Shan R.

2014-01-01

In a reaction time task, people typically slow down following an error or conflict, each called post-error slowing (PES) and post-conflict slowing (PCS). Despite many studies of the cognitive mechanisms, the neural responses of PES and PCS continue to be debated. In this study, we combined high-density array EEG and a stop-signal task to examine event-related potentials of PES and PCS in sixteen young adult participants. The results showed that the amplitude of N2 is greater during PES but not PCS. In contrast, the peak latency of N2 is longer for PCS but not PES. Furthermore, error-positivity (Pe) but not error-related negativity (ERN) was greater in the stop error trials preceding PES than non-PES trials, suggesting that PES is related to participants' awareness of the error. Together, these findings extend earlier work of cognitive control by specifying the neural correlates of PES and PCS in the stop signal task. PMID:24932780

Novel MGF-based expressions for the average bit error probability of binary signalling over generalized fading channels

KAUST Repository

Yilmaz, Ferkan

2014-04-01

The main idea in the moment generating function (MGF) approach is to alternatively express the conditional bit error probability (BEP) in a desired exponential form so that possibly multi-fold performance averaging is readily converted into a computationally efficient single-fold averaging - sometimes into a closed-form - by means of using the MGF of the signal-to-noise ratio. However, as presented in [1] and specifically indicated in [2] and also to the best of our knowledge, there does not exist an MGF-based approach in the literature to represent Wojnar\\'s generic BEP expression in a desired exponential form. This paper presents novel MGF-based expressions for calculating the average BEP of binary signalling over generalized fading channels, specifically by expressing Wojnar\\'s generic BEP expression in a desirable exponential form. We also propose MGF-based expressions to explore the amount of dispersion in the BEP for binary signalling over generalized fading channels.

A lower bound on the relative error of mixed-state cloning and related operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rastegin, A E

2003-01-01

We extend the concept of the relative error to mixed-state cloning and related physical operations, in which the ancilla contains some information a priori about the input state. The lower bound on the relative error is obtained. It is shown that this result provides further support for a stronger no-cloning theorem

CORRECTING ERRORS: THE RELATIVE EFFICACY OF DIFFERENT FORMS OF ERROR FEEDBACK IN SECOND LANGUAGE WRITING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chitra Jayathilake

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Error correction in ESL (English as a Second Language classes has been a focal phenomenon in SLA (Second Language Acquisition research due to some controversial research results and diverse feedback practices. This paper presents a study which explored the relative efficacy of three forms of error correction employed in ESL writing classes: focusing on the acquisition of one grammar element both for immediate and delayed language contexts, and collecting data from university undergraduates, this study employed an experimental research design with a pretest-treatment-posttests structure. The research revealed that the degree of success in acquiring L2 (Second Language grammar through error correction differs according to the form of the correction and to learning contexts. While the findings are discussed in relation to the previous literature, this paper concludes creating a cline of error correction forms to be promoted in Sri Lankan L2 writing contexts, particularly in ESL contexts in Universities.

Making related errors facilitates learning, but learners do not know it.

Science.gov (United States)

Huelser, Barbie J; Metcalfe, Janet

2012-05-01

Producing an error, so long as it is followed by corrective feedback, has been shown to result in better retention of the correct answers than does simply studying the correct answers from the outset. The reasons for this surprising finding, however, have not been investigated. Our hypothesis was that the effect might occur only when the errors produced were related to the targeted correct response. In Experiment 1, participants studied either related or unrelated word pairs, manipulated between participants. Participants either were given the cue and target to study for 5 or 10 s or generated an error in response to the cue for the first 5 s before receiving the correct answer for the final 5 s. When the cues and targets were related, error-generation led to the highest correct retention. However, consistent with the hypothesis, no benefit was derived from generating an error when the cue and target were unrelated. Latent semantic analysis revealed that the errors generated in the related condition were related to the target, whereas they were not related to the target in the unrelated condition. Experiment 2 replicated these findings in a within-participants design. We found, additionally, that people did not know that generating an error enhanced memory, even after they had just completed the task that produced substantial benefits.

Assessing errors related to characteristics of the items measured

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liggett, W.

1980-01-01

Errors that are related to some intrinsic property of the items measured are often encountered in nuclear material accounting. An example is the error in nondestructive assay measurements caused by uncorrected matrix effects. Nuclear material accounting requires for each materials type one measurement method for which bounds on these errors can be determined. If such a method is available, a second method might be used to reduce costs or to improve precision. If the measurement error for the first method is longer-tailed than Gaussian, then precision might be improved by measuring all items by both methods. 8 refs

Scale-invariant Green-Kubo relation for time-averaged diffusivity

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Philipp; Barkai, Eli; Kantz, Holger

2017-12-01

In recent years it was shown both theoretically and experimentally that in certain systems exhibiting anomalous diffusion the time- and ensemble-averaged mean-squared displacement are remarkably different. The ensemble-averaged diffusivity is obtained from a scaling Green-Kubo relation, which connects the scale-invariant nonstationary velocity correlation function with the transport coefficient. Here we obtain the relation between time-averaged diffusivity, usually recorded in single-particle tracking experiments, and the underlying scale-invariant velocity correlation function. The time-averaged mean-squared displacement is given by 〈δ2¯〉 ˜2 DνtβΔν -β , where t is the total measurement time and Δ is the lag time. Here ν is the anomalous diffusion exponent obtained from ensemble-averaged measurements 〈x2〉 ˜tν , while β ≥-1 marks the growth or decline of the kinetic energy 〈v2〉 ˜tβ . Thus, we establish a connection between exponents that can be read off the asymptotic properties of the velocity correlation function and similarly for the transport constant Dν. We demonstrate our results with nonstationary scale-invariant stochastic and deterministic models, thereby highlighting that systems with equivalent behavior in the ensemble average can differ strongly in their time average. If the averaged kinetic energy is finite, β =0 , the time scaling of 〈δ2¯〉 and 〈x2〉 are identical; however, the time-averaged transport coefficient Dν is not identical to the corresponding ensemble-averaged diffusion constant.

Novel relations between the ergodic capacity and the average bit error rate

KAUST Repository

Yilmaz, Ferkan; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2011-01-01

technologies based on these two performance indicators. However and to the best of our knowledge, the direct links between these two performance indicators have not been explicitly proposed in the literature so far. In this paper, we propose novel relations

Reducing patient identification errors related to glucose point-of-care testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gaurav Alreja

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Patient identification (ID errors in point-of-care testing (POCT can cause test results to be transferred to the wrong patient′s chart or prevent results from being transmitted and reported. Despite the implementation of patient barcoding and ongoing operator training at our institution, patient ID errors still occur with glucose POCT. The aim of this study was to develop a solution to reduce identification errors with POCT. Materials and Methods: Glucose POCT was performed by approximately 2,400 clinical operators throughout our health system. Patients are identified by scanning in wristband barcodes or by manual data entry using portable glucose meters. Meters are docked to upload data to a database server which then transmits data to any medical record matching the financial number of the test result. With a new model, meters connect to an interface manager where the patient ID (a nine-digit account number is checked against patient registration data from admission, discharge, and transfer (ADT feeds and only matched results are transferred to the patient′s electronic medical record. With the new process, the patient ID is checked prior to testing, and testing is prevented until ID errors are resolved. Results: When averaged over a period of a month, ID errors were reduced to 3 errors/month (0.015% in comparison with 61.5 errors/month (0.319% before implementing the new meters. Conclusion: Patient ID errors may occur with glucose POCT despite patient barcoding. The verification of patient identification should ideally take place at the bedside before testing occurs so that the errors can be addressed in real time. The introduction of an ADT feed directly to glucose meters reduced patient ID errors in POCT.

Relating physician's workload with errors during radiation therapy planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Mazur, Lukasz M; Mosaly, Prithima R; Hoyle, Lesley M; Jones, Ellen L; Chera, Bhishamjit S; Marks, Lawrence B

2014-01-01

To relate subjective workload (WL) levels to errors for routine clinical tasks. Nine physicians (4 faculty and 5 residents) each performed 3 radiation therapy planning cases. The WL levels were subjectively assessed using National Aeronautics and Space Administration Task Load Index (NASA-TLX). Individual performance was assessed objectively based on the severity grade of errors. The relationship between the WL and performance was assessed via ordinal logistic regression. There was an increased rate of severity grade of errors with increasing WL (P value = .02). As the majority of the higher NASA-TLX scores, and the majority of the performance errors were in the residents, our findings are likely most pertinent to radiation oncology centers with training programs. WL levels may be an important factor contributing to errors during radiation therapy planning tasks. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Dysfunctional error-related processing in incarcerated youth with elevated psychopathic traits

Science.gov (United States)

Maurer, J. Michael; Steele, Vaughn R.; Cope, Lora M.; Vincent, Gina M.; Stephen, Julia M.; Calhoun, Vince D.; Kiehl, Kent A.

2016-01-01

Adult psychopathic offenders show an increased propensity towards violence, impulsivity, and recidivism. A subsample of youth with elevated psychopathic traits represent a particularly severe subgroup characterized by extreme behavioral problems and comparable neurocognitive deficits as their adult counterparts, including perseveration deficits. Here, we investigate response-locked event-related potential (ERP) components (the error-related negativity [ERN/Ne] related to early error-monitoring processing and the error-related positivity [Pe] involved in later error-related processing) in a sample of incarcerated juvenile male offenders (n = 100) who performed a response inhibition Go/NoGo task. Psychopathic traits were assessed using the Hare Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV). The ERN/Ne and Pe were analyzed with classic windowed ERP components and principal component analysis (PCA). Using linear regression analyses, PCL:YV scores were unrelated to the ERN/Ne, but were negatively related to Pe mean amplitude. Specifically, the PCL:YV Facet 4 subscale reflecting antisocial traits emerged as a significant predictor of reduced amplitude of a subcomponent underlying the Pe identified with PCA. This is the first evidence to suggest a negative relationship between adolescent psychopathy scores and Pe mean amplitude. PMID:26930170

Association of medication errors with drug classifications, clinical units, and consequence of errors: Are they related?

Science.gov (United States)

Muroi, Maki; Shen, Jay J; Angosta, Alona

2017-02-01

Registered nurses (RNs) play an important role in safe medication administration and patient safety. This study examined a total of 1276 medication error (ME) incident reports made by RNs in hospital inpatient settings in the southwestern region of the United States. The most common drug class associated with MEs was cardiovascular drugs (24.7%). Among this class, anticoagulants had the most errors (11.3%). The antimicrobials was the second most common drug class associated with errors (19.1%) and vancomycin was the most common antimicrobial that caused errors in this category (6.1%). MEs occurred more frequently in the medical-surgical and intensive care units than any other hospital units. Ten percent of MEs reached the patients with harm and 11% reached the patients with increased monitoring. Understanding the contributing factors related to MEs, addressing and eliminating risk of errors across hospital units, and providing education and resources for nurses may help reduce MEs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Event-related EEG potentials associated with error detection in psychiatric disorder: literature review].

Science.gov (United States)

Balogh, Lívia; Czobor, Pál

2010-01-01

Error-related bioelectric signals constitute a special subgroup of event-related potentials. Researchers have identified two evoked potential components to be closely related to error processing, namely error-related negativity (ERN) and error-positivity (Pe), and they linked these to specific cognitive functions. In our article first we give a brief description of these components, then based on the available literature, we review differences in error-related evoked potentials observed in patients across psychiatric disorders. The PubMed and Medline search engines were used in order to identify all relevant articles, published between 2000 and 2009. For the purpose of the current paper we reviewed publications summarizing results of clinical trials. Patients suffering from schizophrenia, anorexia nervosa or borderline personality disorder exhibited a decrease in the amplitude of error-negativity when compared with healthy controls, while in cases of depression and anxiety an increase in the amplitude has been observed. Some of the articles suggest specific personality variables, such as impulsivity, perfectionism, negative emotions or sensitivity to punishment to underlie these electrophysiological differences. Research in the field of error-related electric activity has come to the focus of psychiatry research only recently, thus the amount of available data is significantly limited. However, since this is a relatively new field of research, the results available at present are noteworthy and promising for future electrophysiological investigations in psychiatric disorders.

Exploiting the Errors: A Simple Approach for Improved Volatility Forecasting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bollerslev, Tim; Patton, Andrew J.; Quaedvlieg, Rogier

with the (estimated) degree of measurement error, the models exhibit stronger persistence, and in turn generate more responsive forecasts, when the measurement error is relatively low. Implementing the new class of models for the S&P500 equity index and the individual constituents of the Dow Jones Industrial Average...

Average bit error probability of binary coherent signaling over generalized fading channels subject to additive generalized gaussian noise

KAUST Repository

Soury, Hamza

2012-06-01

This letter considers the average bit error probability of binary coherent signaling over flat fading channels subject to additive generalized Gaussian noise. More specifically, a generic closed form expression in terms of the Fox\\'s H function is offered for the extended generalized-K fading case. Simplifications for some special fading distributions such as generalized-K fading and Nakagami-m fading and special additive noise distributions such as Gaussian and Laplacian noise are then presented. Finally, the mathematical formalism is illustrated by some numerical examples verified by computer based simulations for a variety of fading and additive noise parameters. © 2012 IEEE.

EEG-based decoding of error-related brain activity in a real-world driving task

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, H.; Chavarriaga, R.; Khaliliardali, Z.; Gheorghe, L.; Iturrate, I.; Millán, J. d. R.

2015-12-01

Objectives. Recent studies have started to explore the implementation of brain-computer interfaces (BCI) as part of driving assistant systems. The current study presents an EEG-based BCI that decodes error-related brain activity. Such information can be used, e.g., to predict driver’s intended turning direction before reaching road intersections. Approach. We executed experiments in a car simulator (N = 22) and a real car (N = 8). While subject was driving, a directional cue was shown before reaching an intersection, and we classified the presence or not of an error-related potentials from EEG to infer whether the cued direction coincided with the subject’s intention. In this protocol, the directional cue can correspond to an estimation of the driving direction provided by a driving assistance system. We analyzed ERPs elicited during normal driving and evaluated the classification performance in both offline and online tests. Results. An average classification accuracy of 0.698 ± 0.065 was obtained in offline experiments in the car simulator, while tests in the real car yielded a performance of 0.682 ± 0.059. The results were significantly higher than chance level for all cases. Online experiments led to equivalent performances in both simulated and real car driving experiments. These results support the feasibility of decoding these signals to help estimating whether the driver’s intention coincides with the advice provided by the driving assistant in a real car. Significance. The study demonstrates a BCI system in real-world driving, extending the work from previous simulated studies. As far as we know, this is the first online study in real car decoding driver’s error-related brain activity. Given the encouraging results, the paradigm could be further improved by using more sophisticated machine learning approaches and possibly be combined with applications in intelligent vehicles.

Comprehensive analysis of a medication dosing error related to CPOE.

Science.gov (United States)

Horsky, Jan; Kuperman, Gilad J; Patel, Vimla L

2005-01-01

This case study of a serious medication error demonstrates the necessity of a comprehensive methodology for the analysis of failures in interaction between humans and information systems. The authors used a novel approach to analyze a dosing error related to computer-based ordering of potassium chloride (KCl). The method included a chronological reconstruction of events and their interdependencies from provider order entry usage logs, semistructured interviews with involved clinicians, and interface usability inspection of the ordering system. Information collected from all sources was compared and evaluated to understand how the error evolved and propagated through the system. In this case, the error was the product of faults in interaction among human and system agents that methods limited in scope to their distinct analytical domains would not identify. The authors characterized errors in several converging aspects of the drug ordering process: confusing on-screen laboratory results review, system usability difficulties, user training problems, and suboptimal clinical system safeguards that all contributed to a serious dosing error. The results of the authors' analysis were used to formulate specific recommendations for interface layout and functionality modifications, suggest new user alerts, propose changes to user training, and address error-prone steps of the KCl ordering process to reduce the risk of future medication dosing errors.

Relating faults in diagnostic reasoning with diagnostic errors and patient harm.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zwaan, L.; Thijs, A.; Wagner, C.; Wal, G. van der; Timmermans, D.R.M.

2012-01-01

Purpose: The relationship between faults in diagnostic reasoning, diagnostic errors, and patient harm has hardly been studied. This study examined suboptimal cognitive acts (SCAs; i.e., faults in diagnostic reasoning), related them to the occurrence of diagnostic errors and patient harm, and studied

Small Bandwidth Asymptotics for Density-Weighted Average Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cattaneo, Matias D.; Crump, Richard K.; Jansson, Michael

This paper proposes (apparently) novel standard error formulas for the density-weighted average derivative estimator of Powell, Stock, and Stoker (1989). Asymptotic validity of the standard errors developed in this paper does not require the use of higher-order kernels and the standard errors...

Dependence of fluence errors in dynamic IMRT on leaf-positional errors varying with time and leaf number

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zygmanski, Piotr; Kung, Jong H.; Jiang, Steve B.; Chin, Lee

2003-01-01

In d-MLC based IMRT, leaves move along a trajectory that lies within a user-defined tolerance (TOL) about the ideal trajectory specified in a d-MLC sequence file. The MLC controller measures leaf positions multiple times per second and corrects them if they deviate from ideal positions by a value greater than TOL. The magnitude of leaf-positional errors resulting from finite mechanical precision depends on the performance of the MLC motors executing leaf motions and is generally larger if leaves are forced to move at higher speeds. The maximum value of leaf-positional errors can be limited by decreasing TOL. However, due to the inherent time delay in the MLC controller, this may not happen at all times. Furthermore, decreasing the leaf tolerance results in a larger number of beam hold-offs, which, in turn leads, to a longer delivery time and, paradoxically, to higher chances of leaf-positional errors (≤TOL). On the other end, the magnitude of leaf-positional errors depends on the complexity of the fluence map to be delivered. Recently, it has been shown that it is possible to determine the actual distribution of leaf-positional errors either by the imaging of moving MLC apertures with a digital imager or by analysis of a MLC log file saved by a MLC controller. This leads next to an important question: What is the relation between the distribution of leaf-positional errors and fluence errors. In this work, we introduce an analytical method to determine this relation in dynamic IMRT delivery. We model MLC errors as Random-Leaf Positional (RLP) errors described by a truncated normal distribution defined by two characteristic parameters: a standard deviation σ and a cut-off value Δx 0 (Δx 0 ∼TOL). We quantify fluence errors for two cases: (i) Δx 0 >>σ (unrestricted normal distribution) and (ii) Δx 0 0 --limited normal distribution). We show that an average fluence error of an IMRT field is proportional to (i) σ/ALPO and (ii) Δx 0 /ALPO, respectively, where

The impact of work-related stress on medication errors in Eastern Region Saudi Arabia.

Science.gov (United States)

Salam, Abdul; Segal, David M; Abu-Helalah, Munir Ahmad; Gutierrez, Mary Lou; Joosub, Imran; Ahmed, Wasim; Bibi, Rubina; Clarke, Elizabeth; Qarni, Ali Ahmed Al

2018-05-07

To examine the relationship between overall level and source-specific work-related stressors on medication errors rate. A cross-sectional study examined the relationship between overall levels of stress, 25 source-specific work-related stressors and medication error rate based on documented incident reports in Saudi Arabia (SA) hospital, using secondary databases. King Abdulaziz Hospital in Al-Ahsa, Eastern Region, SA. Two hundred and sixty-nine healthcare professionals (HCPs). The odds ratio (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) for HCPs documented incident report medication errors and self-reported sources of Job Stress Survey. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified source-specific work-related stress as significantly associated with HCPs who made at least one medication error per month (P stress were two times more likely to make at least one medication error per month than non-stressed HCPs (OR: 1.95, P = 0.081). This is the first study to use documented incident reports for medication errors rather than self-report to evaluate the level of stress-related medication errors in SA HCPs. Job demands, such as social stressors (home life disruption, difficulties with colleagues), time pressures, structural determinants (compulsory night/weekend call duties) and higher income, were significantly associated with medication errors whereas overall stress revealed a 2-fold higher trend.

Pareto Principle in Datamining: an Above-Average Fencing Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Macek

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This paper formulates a new datamining problem: which subset of input space has the relatively highest output where the minimal size of this subset is given. This can be useful where usual datamining methods fail because of error distribution asymmetry. The paper provides a novel algorithm for this datamining problem, and compares it with clustering of above-average individuals.

Technology-related medication errors in a tertiary hospital: a 5-year analysis of reported medication incidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Samaranayake, N R; Cheung, S T D; Chui, W C M; Cheung, B M Y

2012-12-01

Healthcare technology is meant to reduce medication errors. The objective of this study was to assess unintended errors related to technologies in the medication use process. Medication incidents reported from 2006 to 2010 in a main tertiary care hospital were analysed by a pharmacist and technology-related errors were identified. Technology-related errors were further classified as socio-technical errors and device errors. This analysis was conducted using data from medication incident reports which may represent only a small proportion of medication errors that actually takes place in a hospital. Hence, interpretation of results must be tentative. 1538 medication incidents were reported. 17.1% of all incidents were technology-related, of which only 1.9% were device errors, whereas most were socio-technical errors (98.1%). Of these, 61.2% were linked to computerised prescription order entry, 23.2% to bar-coded patient identification labels, 7.2% to infusion pumps, 6.8% to computer-aided dispensing label generation and 1.5% to other technologies. The immediate causes for technology-related errors included, poor interface between user and computer (68.1%), improper procedures or rule violations (22.1%), poor interface between user and infusion pump (4.9%), technical defects (1.9%) and others (3.0%). In 11.4% of the technology-related incidents, the error was detected after the drug had been administered. A considerable proportion of all incidents were technology-related. Most errors were due to socio-technical issues. Unintended and unanticipated errors may happen when using technologies. Therefore, when using technologies, system improvement, awareness, training and monitoring are needed to minimise medication errors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intelligence and Neurophysiological Markers of Error Monitoring Relate to Children's Intellectual Humility.

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Danovitch, Judith H; Fisher, Megan; Schroder, Hans; Hambrick, David Z; Moser, Jason

2017-09-18

This study explored developmental and individual differences in intellectual humility (IH) among 127 children ages 6-8. IH was operationalized as children's assessment of their knowledge and willingness to delegate scientific questions to experts. Children completed measures of IH, theory of mind, motivational framework, and intelligence, and neurophysiological measures indexing early (error-related negativity [ERN]) and later (error positivity [Pe]) error-monitoring processes related to cognitive control. Children's knowledge self-assessment correlated with question delegation, and older children showed greater IH than younger children. Greater IH was associated with higher intelligence but not with social cognition or motivational framework. ERN related to self-assessment, whereas Pe related to question delegation. Thus, children show separable epistemic and social components of IH that may differentially contribute to metacognition and learning. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Relating Complexity and Error Rates of Ontology Concepts. More Complex NCIt Concepts Have More Errors.

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Min, Hua; Zheng, Ling; Perl, Yehoshua; Halper, Michael; De Coronado, Sherri; Ochs, Christopher

2017-05-18

Ontologies are knowledge structures that lend support to many health-information systems. A study is carried out to assess the quality of ontological concepts based on a measure of their complexity. The results show a relation between complexity of concepts and error rates of concepts. A measure of lateral complexity defined as the number of exhibited role types is used to distinguish between more complex and simpler concepts. Using a framework called an area taxonomy, a kind of abstraction network that summarizes the structural organization of an ontology, concepts are divided into two groups along these lines. Various concepts from each group are then subjected to a two-phase QA analysis to uncover and verify errors and inconsistencies in their modeling. A hierarchy of the National Cancer Institute thesaurus (NCIt) is used as our test-bed. A hypothesis pertaining to the expected error rates of the complex and simple concepts is tested. Our study was done on the NCIt's Biological Process hierarchy. Various errors, including missing roles, incorrect role targets, and incorrectly assigned roles, were discovered and verified in the two phases of our QA analysis. The overall findings confirmed our hypothesis by showing a statistically significant difference between the amounts of errors exhibited by more laterally complex concepts vis-à-vis simpler concepts. QA is an essential part of any ontology's maintenance regimen. In this paper, we reported on the results of a QA study targeting two groups of ontology concepts distinguished by their level of complexity, defined in terms of the number of exhibited role types. The study was carried out on a major component of an important ontology, the NCIt. The findings suggest that more complex concepts tend to have a higher error rate than simpler concepts. These findings can be utilized to guide ongoing efforts in ontology QA.

Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

Science.gov (United States)

Esselborn, Saskia; Rudenko, Sergei; Schöne, Tilo

2018-03-01

Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year), and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS), and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability) with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr-1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability) and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr-1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test orbits calculated at GFZ, the sources of the

Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Esselborn

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year, and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ, the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS, and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC. The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr−1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr−1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test

Error-related brain activity predicts cocaine use after treatment at 3-month follow-up.

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Marhe, Reshmi; van de Wetering, Ben J M; Franken, Ingmar H A

2013-04-15

Relapse after treatment is one of the most important problems in drug dependency. Several studies suggest that lack of cognitive control is one of the causes of relapse. In this study, a relative new electrophysiologic index of cognitive control, the error-related negativity, is investigated to examine its suitability as a predictor of relapse. The error-related negativity was measured in 57 cocaine-dependent patients during their first week in detoxification treatment. Data from 49 participants were used to predict cocaine use at 3-month follow-up. Cocaine use at follow-up was measured by means of self-reported days of cocaine use in the last month verified by urine screening. A multiple hierarchical regression model was used to examine the predictive value of the error-related negativity while controlling for addiction severity and self-reported craving in the week before treatment. The error-related negativity was the only significant predictor in the model and added 7.4% of explained variance to the control variables, resulting in a total of 33.4% explained variance in the prediction of days of cocaine use at follow-up. A reduced error-related negativity measured during the first week of treatment was associated with more days of cocaine use at 3-month follow-up. Moreover, the error-related negativity was a stronger predictor of recent cocaine use than addiction severity and craving. These results suggest that underactive error-related brain activity might help to identify patients who are at risk of relapse as early as in the first week of detoxification treatment. Copyright © 2013 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Error Analysis of Relative Calibration for RCS Measurement on Ground Plane Range

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wu Peng-fei

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Ground plane range is a kind of outdoor Radar Cross Section (RCS test range used for static measurement of full-size or scaled targets. Starting from the characteristics of ground plane range, the impact of environments on targets and calibrators is analyzed during calibration in the RCS measurements. The error of relative calibration produced by the different illumination of target and calibrator is studied. The relative calibration technique used in ground plane range is to place the calibrator on a fixed and auxiliary pylon somewhere between the radar and the target under test. By considering the effect of ground reflection and antenna pattern, the relationship between the magnitude of echoes and the position of calibrator is discussed. According to the different distances between the calibrator and target, the difference between free space and ground plane range is studied and the error of relative calibration is calculated. Numerical simulation results are presented with useful conclusions. The relative calibration error varies with the position of calibrator, frequency and antenna beam width. In most case, set calibrator close to the target may keep the error under control.

The Hurst Phenomenon in Error Estimates Related to Atmospheric Turbulence

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Dias, Nelson Luís; Crivellaro, Bianca Luhm; Chamecki, Marcelo

2018-05-01

The Hurst phenomenon is a well-known feature of long-range persistence first observed in hydrological and geophysical time series by E. Hurst in the 1950s. It has also been found in several cases in turbulence time series measured in the wind tunnel, the atmosphere, and in rivers. Here, we conduct a systematic investigation of the value of the Hurst coefficient H in atmospheric surface-layer data, and its impact on the estimation of random errors. We show that usually H > 0.5 , which implies the non-existence (in the statistical sense) of the integral time scale. Since the integral time scale is present in the Lumley-Panofsky equation for the estimation of random errors, this has important practical consequences. We estimated H in two principal ways: (1) with an extension of the recently proposed filtering method to estimate the random error (H_p ), and (2) with the classical rescaled range introduced by Hurst (H_R ). Other estimators were tried but were found less able to capture the statistical behaviour of the large scales of turbulence. Using data from three micrometeorological campaigns we found that both first- and second-order turbulence statistics display the Hurst phenomenon. Usually, H_R is larger than H_p for the same dataset, raising the question that one, or even both, of these estimators, may be biased. For the relative error, we found that the errors estimated with the approach adopted by us, that we call the relaxed filtering method, and that takes into account the occurrence of the Hurst phenomenon, are larger than both the filtering method and the classical Lumley-Panofsky estimates. Finally, we found that there is no apparent relationship between H and the Obukhov stability parameter. The relative errors, however, do show stability dependence, particularly in the case of the error of the kinematic momentum flux in unstable conditions, and that of the kinematic sensible heat flux in stable conditions.

System for evaluation of the true average input-pulse rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eichenlaub, D.P.; Garrett, P.

1977-01-01

The description is given of a digital radiation monitoring system making use of current digital circuit and microprocessor for rapidly processing the pulse data coming from remote radiation controllers. This system analyses the pulse rates in order to determine if a new datum is statistically the same as that previously received. Hence it determines the best possible average time for itself. So long as the true average pulse rate stays constant, the time required to establish an average can increase until the statistical error is under the desired level, i.e. 1%. When the digital processing of the pulse data indicates a change in the true average pulse rate, the time required to establish an average can be reduced so as to improve the response time of the system at the statistical error. This concept includes a fixed compromise between the statistical error and the response time [fr

Action errors, error management, and learning in organizations.

Science.gov (United States)

Frese, Michael; Keith, Nina

2015-01-03

Every organization is confronted with errors. Most errors are corrected easily, but some may lead to negative consequences. Organizations often focus on error prevention as a single strategy for dealing with errors. Our review suggests that error prevention needs to be supplemented by error management--an approach directed at effectively dealing with errors after they have occurred, with the goal of minimizing negative and maximizing positive error consequences (examples of the latter are learning and innovations). After defining errors and related concepts, we review research on error-related processes affected by error management (error detection, damage control). Empirical evidence on positive effects of error management in individuals and organizations is then discussed, along with emotional, motivational, cognitive, and behavioral pathways of these effects. Learning from errors is central, but like other positive consequences, learning occurs under certain circumstances--one being the development of a mind-set of acceptance of human error.

Yearly, seasonal and monthly daily average diffuse sky radiation models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kassem, A.S.; Mujahid, A.M.; Turner, D.W.

1993-01-01

A daily average diffuse sky radiation regression model based on daily global radiation was developed utilizing two year data taken near Blytheville, Arkansas (Lat. =35.9 0 N, Long. = 89.9 0 W), U.S.A. The model has a determination coefficient of 0.91 and 0.092 standard error of estimate. The data were also analyzed for a seasonal dependence and four seasonal average daily models were developed for the spring, summer, fall and winter seasons. The coefficient of determination is 0.93, 0.81, 0.94 and 0.93, whereas the standard error of estimate is 0.08, 0.102, 0.042 and 0.075 for spring, summer, fall and winter, respectively. A monthly average daily diffuse sky radiation model was also developed. The coefficient of determination is 0.92 and the standard error of estimate is 0.083. A seasonal monthly average model was also developed which has 0.91 coefficient of determination and 0.085 standard error of estimate. The developed monthly daily average and daily models compare well with a selected number of previously developed models. (author). 11 ref., figs., tabs

A novel framework on exact average symbol error probabilities of multihop transmission over amplify-and-forward relay fading channels

KAUST Repository

Yilmaz, Ferkan; Kucur, Oǧuz; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2010-01-01

In this paper, we propose an analytical framework on the exact computation of the average symbol error probabilities (ASEP) of multihop transmission over generalized fading channels when an arbitrary number of amplify-and-forward relays is used. Our approach relies on moment generating function (MGF) framework to obtain exact single integral expressions which can be easily computed by Gauss-Chebyshev Quadrature (GCQ) rule. As such, the derived results are a convenient tool to analyze the ASEP performance of multihop transmission over amplify-and-forward relay fading channels. Numerical and simulation results, performed to verify the correctness of the proposed formulation, are in perfect agreement. © 2010 IEEE.

A novel framework on exact average symbol error probabilities of multihop transmission over amplify-and-forward relay fading channels

KAUST Repository

Yilmaz, Ferkan

2010-09-01

In this paper, we propose an analytical framework on the exact computation of the average symbol error probabilities (ASEP) of multihop transmission over generalized fading channels when an arbitrary number of amplify-and-forward relays is used. Our approach relies on moment generating function (MGF) framework to obtain exact single integral expressions which can be easily computed by Gauss-Chebyshev Quadrature (GCQ) rule. As such, the derived results are a convenient tool to analyze the ASEP performance of multihop transmission over amplify-and-forward relay fading channels. Numerical and simulation results, performed to verify the correctness of the proposed formulation, are in perfect agreement. © 2010 IEEE.

Medication errors as malpractice-a qualitative content analysis of 585 medication errors by nurses in Sweden.

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Björkstén, Karin Sparring; Bergqvist, Monica; Andersén-Karlsson, Eva; Benson, Lina; Ulfvarson, Johanna

2016-08-24

Many studies address the prevalence of medication errors but few address medication errors serious enough to be regarded as malpractice. Other studies have analyzed the individual and system contributory factor leading to a medication error. Nurses have a key role in medication administration, and there are contradictory reports on the nurses' work experience in relation to the risk and type for medication errors. All medication errors where a nurse was held responsible for malpractice (n = 585) during 11 years in Sweden were included. A qualitative content analysis and classification according to the type and the individual and system contributory factors was made. In order to test for possible differences between nurses' work experience and associations within and between the errors and contributory factors, Fisher's exact test was used, and Cohen's kappa (k) was performed to estimate the magnitude and direction of the associations. There were a total of 613 medication errors in the 585 cases, the most common being "Wrong dose" (41 %), "Wrong patient" (13 %) and "Omission of drug" (12 %). In 95 % of the cases, an average of 1.4 individual contributory factors was found; the most common being "Negligence, forgetfulness or lack of attentiveness" (68 %), "Proper protocol not followed" (25 %), "Lack of knowledge" (13 %) and "Practice beyond scope" (12 %). In 78 % of the cases, an average of 1.7 system contributory factors was found; the most common being "Role overload" (36 %), "Unclear communication or orders" (30 %) and "Lack of adequate access to guidelines or unclear organisational routines" (30 %). The errors "Wrong patient due to mix-up of patients" and "Wrong route" and the contributory factors "Lack of knowledge" and "Negligence, forgetfulness or lack of attentiveness" were more common in less experienced nurses. The experienced nurses were more prone to "Practice beyond scope of practice" and to make errors in spite of "Lack of adequate

The role of hand of error and stimulus orientation in the relationship between worry and error-related brain activity: Implications for theory and practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yanli; Moran, Tim P; Schroder, Hans S; Moser, Jason S

2015-10-01

Anxious apprehension/worry is associated with exaggerated error monitoring; however, the precise mechanisms underlying this relationship remain unclear. The current study tested the hypothesis that the worry-error monitoring relationship involves left-lateralized linguistic brain activity by examining the relationship between worry and error monitoring, indexed by the error-related negativity (ERN), as a function of hand of error (Experiment 1) and stimulus orientation (Experiment 2). Results revealed that worry was exclusively related to the ERN on right-handed errors committed by the linguistically dominant left hemisphere. Moreover, the right-hand ERN-worry relationship emerged only when stimuli were presented horizontally (known to activate verbal processes) but not vertically. Together, these findings suggest that the worry-ERN relationship involves left hemisphere verbal processing, elucidating a potential mechanism to explain error monitoring abnormalities in anxiety. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. © 2015 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Relative Error Evaluation to Typical Open Global dem Datasets in Shanxi Plateau of China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, S.; Zhang, S.; Cheng, W.

2018-04-01

Produced by radar data or stereo remote sensing image pairs, global DEM datasets are one of the most important types for DEM data. Relative error relates to surface quality created by DEM data, so it relates to geomorphology and hydrologic applications using DEM data. Taking Shanxi Plateau of China as the study area, this research evaluated the relative error to typical open global DEM datasets including Shuttle Radar Terrain Mission (SRTM) data with 1 arc second resolution (SRTM1), SRTM data with 3 arc second resolution (SRTM3), ASTER global DEM data in the second version (GDEM-v2) and ALOS world 3D-30m (AW3D) data. Through process and selection, more than 300,000 ICESat/GLA14 points were used as the GCP data, and the vertical error was computed and compared among four typical global DEM datasets. Then, more than 2,600,000 ICESat/GLA14 point pairs were acquired using the distance threshold between 100 m and 500 m. Meanwhile, the horizontal distance between every point pair was computed, so the relative error was achieved using slope values based on vertical error difference and the horizontal distance of the point pairs. Finally, false slope ratio (FSR) index was computed through analyzing the difference between DEM and ICESat/GLA14 values for every point pair. Both relative error and FSR index were categorically compared for the four DEM datasets under different slope classes. Research results show: Overall, AW3D has the lowest relative error values in mean error, mean absolute error, root mean square error and standard deviation error; then the SRTM1 data, its values are a little higher than AW3D data; the SRTM3 and GDEM-v2 data have the highest relative error values, and the values for the two datasets are similar. Considering different slope conditions, all the four DEM data have better performance in flat areas but worse performance in sloping regions; AW3D has the best performance in all the slope classes, a litter better than SRTM1; with slope increasing

Running Records and First Grade English Learners: An Analysis of Language Related Errors

Science.gov (United States)

Briceño, Allison; Klein, Adria F.

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if first-grade English Learners made patterns of language related errors when reading, and if so, to identify those patterns and how teachers coded language related errors when analyzing English Learners' running records. Using research from the fields of both literacy and Second Language Acquisition, we…

A new accuracy measure based on bounded relative error for time series forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chao; Twycross, Jamie; Garibaldi, Jonathan M

2017-01-01

Many accuracy measures have been proposed in the past for time series forecasting comparisons. However, many of these measures suffer from one or more issues such as poor resistance to outliers and scale dependence. In this paper, while summarising commonly used accuracy measures, a special review is made on the symmetric mean absolute percentage error. Moreover, a new accuracy measure called the Unscaled Mean Bounded Relative Absolute Error (UMBRAE), which combines the best features of various alternative measures, is proposed to address the common issues of existing measures. A comparative evaluation on the proposed and related measures has been made with both synthetic and real-world data. The results indicate that the proposed measure, with user selectable benchmark, performs as well as or better than other measures on selected criteria. Though it has been commonly accepted that there is no single best accuracy measure, we suggest that UMBRAE could be a good choice to evaluate forecasting methods, especially for cases where measures based on geometric mean of relative errors, such as the geometric mean relative absolute error, are preferred.

Human medial frontal cortex activity predicts learning from errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Hester, Robert; Barre, Natalie; Murphy, Kevin; Silk, Tim J; Mattingley, Jason B

2008-08-01

Learning from errors is a critical feature of human cognition. It underlies our ability to adapt to changing environmental demands and to tune behavior for optimal performance. The posterior medial frontal cortex (pMFC) has been implicated in the evaluation of errors to control behavior, although it has not previously been shown that activity in this region predicts learning from errors. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we examined activity in the pMFC during an associative learning task in which participants had to recall the spatial locations of 2-digit targets and were provided with immediate feedback regarding accuracy. Activity within the pMFC was significantly greater for errors that were subsequently corrected than for errors that were repeated. Moreover, pMFC activity during recall errors predicted future responses (correct vs. incorrect), despite a sizeable interval (on average 70 s) between an error and the next presentation of the same recall probe. Activity within the hippocampus also predicted future performance and correlated with error-feedback-related pMFC activity. A relationship between performance expectations and pMFC activity, in the absence of differing reinforcement value for errors, is consistent with the idea that error-related pMFC activity reflects the extent to which an outcome is "worse than expected."

An investigation of Saudi Arabian MR radiographers' knowledge and confidence in relation to MR image-quality-related errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alsharif, W.; Davis, M.; McGee, A.; Rainford, L.

2017-01-01

Objective: To investigate MR radiographers' current knowledge base and confidence level in relation to quality-related errors within MR images. Method: Thirty-five MR radiographers within 16 MRI departments in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) independently reviewed a prepared set of 25 MR images, naming the error, specifying the error-correction strategy, scoring how confident they were in recognising this error and suggesting a correction strategy by using a scale of 1–100. The datasets were obtained from MRI departments in the KSA to represent the range of images which depicted excellent, acceptable and poor image quality. Results: The findings demonstrated a low level of radiographer knowledge in identifying the type of quality errors and when suggesting an appropriate strategy to rectify those errors. The findings show that only (n = 7) 20% of the radiographers could correctly name what the quality errors were in 70% of the dataset, and none of the radiographers correctly specified the error-correction strategy in more than 68% of the MR datasets. The confidence level of radiography participants in their ability to state the type of image quality errors was significantly different (p < 0.001) for who work in different hospital types. Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest there is a need to establish a national association for MR radiographers to monitor training and the development of postgraduate MRI education in Saudi Arabia to improve the current status of the MR radiographers' knowledge and direct high quality service delivery. - Highlights: • MR radiographers recognised the existence of the image quality related errors. • A few MR radiographers were able to correctly identify which image quality errors were being shown. • None of MR radiographers were able to correctly specify error-correction strategy of the image quality errors. • A low level of knowledge was demonstrated in identifying and rectify image quality errors.

Error-related negativity and tic history in pediatric obsessive-compulsive disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanna, Gregory L; Carrasco, Melisa; Harbin, Shannon M; Nienhuis, Jenna K; LaRosa, Christina E; Chen, Poyu; Fitzgerald, Kate D; Gehring, William J

2012-09-01

The error-related negativity (ERN) is a negative deflection in the event-related potential after an incorrect response, which is often increased in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). However, the relation of the ERN to comorbid tic disorders has not been examined in patients with OCD. This study compared ERN amplitudes in patients with tic-related OCD, patients with non-tic-related OCD, and healthy controls. The ERN, correct response negativity, and error number were measured during an Eriksen flanker task to assess performance monitoring in 44 youth with a lifetime diagnosis of OCD and 44 matched healthy controls ranging in age from 10 to 19 years. Nine youth with OCD had a lifetime history of tics. ERN amplitude was significantly increased in patients with OCD compared with healthy controls. ERN amplitude was significantly larger in patients with non-tic-related OCD than in patients with tic-related OCD or controls. ERN amplitude had a significant negative correlation with age in healthy controls but not in patients with OCD. Instead, in patients with non-tic-related OCD, ERN amplitude had a significant positive correlation with age at onset of OCD symptoms. ERN amplitude in patients was unrelated to OCD symptom severity, current diagnostic status, or treatment effects. The results provide further evidence of increased error-related brain activity in pediatric OCD. The difference in the ERN between patients with tic-related and those with non-tic-related OCD provides preliminary evidence of a neurobiological difference between these two OCD subtypes. The results indicate the ERN is a trait-like measurement that may serve as a biomarker for non-tic-related OCD. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early math and reading achievement are associated with the error positivity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew H. Kim

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Executive functioning (EF and motivation are associated with academic achievement and error-related ERPs. The present study explores whether early academic skills predict variability in the error-related negativity (ERN and error positivity (Pe. Data from 113 three- to seven-year-old children in a Go/No-Go task revealed that stronger early reading and math skills predicted a larger Pe. Closer examination revealed that this relation was quadratic and significant for children performing at or near grade level, but not significant for above-average achievers. Early academics did not predict the ERN. These findings suggest that the Pe – which reflects individual differences in motivational processes as well as attention – may be associated with early academic achievement.

Segmentation error and macular thickness measurements obtained with spectral-domain optical coherence tomography devices in neovascular age-related macular degeneration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moosang Kim

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: To evaluate frequency and severity of segmentation errors of two spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT devices and error effect on central macular thickness (CMT measurements. Materials and Methods: Twenty-seven eyes of 25 patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration, examined using the Cirrus HD-OCT and Spectralis HRA + OCT, were retrospectively reviewed. Macular cube 512 × 128 and 5-line raster scans were performed with the Cirrus and 512 × 25 volume scans with the Spectralis. Frequency and severity of segmentation errors were compared between scans. Results: Segmentation error frequency was 47.4% (baseline, 40.7% (1 month, 40.7% (2 months, and 48.1% (6 months for the Cirrus, and 59.3%, 62.2%, 57.8%, and 63.7%, respectively, for the Spectralis, differing significantly between devices at all examinations (P < 0.05, except at baseline. Average error score was 1.21 ± 1.65 (baseline, 0.79 ± 1.18 (1 month, 0.74 ± 1.12 (2 months, and 0.96 ± 1.11 (6 months for the Cirrus, and 1.73 ± 1.50, 1.54 ± 1.35, 1.38 ± 1.40, and 1.49 ± 1.30, respectively, for the Spectralis, differing significantly at 1 month and 2 months (P < 0.02. Automated and manual CMT measurements by the Spectralis were larger than those by the Cirrus. Conclusions: The Cirrus HD-OCT had a lower frequency and severity of segmentation error than the Spectralis HRA + OCT. SD-OCT error should be considered when evaluating retinal thickness.

Error-Related Negativity and Tic History in Pediatric Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder

Science.gov (United States)

Hanna, Gregory L.; Carrasco, Melisa; Harbin, Shannon M.; Nienhuis, Jenna K.; LaRosa, Christina E.; Chen, Poyu; Fitzgerald, Kate D.; Gehring, William J.

2012-01-01

Objective: The error-related negativity (ERN) is a negative deflection in the event-related potential after an incorrect response, which is often increased in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). However, the relation of the ERN to comorbid tic disorders has not been examined in patients with OCD. This study compared ERN amplitudes…

Age-related changes in error processing in young children: A school-based investigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennie K. Grammer

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Growth in executive functioning (EF skills play a role children's academic success, and the transition to elementary school is an important time for the development of these abilities. Despite this, evidence concerning the development of the ERP components linked to EF, including the error-related negativity (ERN and the error positivity (Pe, over this period is inconclusive. Data were recorded in a school setting from 3- to 7-year-old children (N = 96, mean age = 5 years 11 months as they performed a Go/No-Go task. Results revealed the presence of the ERN and Pe on error relative to correct trials at all age levels. Older children showed increased response inhibition as evidenced by faster, more accurate responses. Although developmental changes in the ERN were not identified, the Pe increased with age. In addition, girls made fewer mistakes and showed elevated Pe amplitudes relative to boys. Based on a representative school-based sample, findings indicate that the ERN is present in children as young as 3, and that development can be seen in the Pe between ages 3 and 7. Results varied as a function of gender, providing insight into the range of factors associated with developmental changes in the complex relations between behavioral and electrophysiological measures of error processing.

Research on Human-Error Factors of Civil Aircraft Pilots Based On Grey Relational Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guo Yundong

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In consideration of the situation that civil aviation accidents involve many human-error factors and show the features of typical grey systems, an index system of civil aviation accident human-error factors is built using human factor analysis and classification system model. With the data of accidents happened worldwide between 2008 and 2011, the correlation between human-error factors can be analyzed quantitatively using the method of grey relational analysis. Research results show that the order of main factors affecting pilot human-error factors is preconditions for unsafe acts, unsafe supervision, organization and unsafe acts. The factor related most closely with second-level indexes and pilot human-error factors is the physical/mental limitations of pilots, followed by supervisory violations. The relevancy between the first-level indexes and the corresponding second-level indexes and the relevancy between second-level indexes can also be analyzed quantitatively.

Working memory capacity and task goals modulate error-related ERPs.

Science.gov (United States)

Coleman, James R; Watson, Jason M; Strayer, David L

2018-03-01

The present study investigated individual differences in information processing following errant behavior. Participants were initially classified as high or as low working memory capacity using the Operation Span Task. In a subsequent session, they then performed a high congruency version of the flanker task under both speed and accuracy stress. We recorded ERPs and behavioral measures of accuracy and response time in the flanker task with a primary focus on processing following an error. The error-related negativity was larger for the high working memory capacity group than for the low working memory capacity group. The positivity following an error (Pe) was modulated to a greater extent by speed-accuracy instruction for the high working memory capacity group than for the low working memory capacity group. These data help to explicate the neural bases of individual differences in working memory capacity and cognitive control. © 2017 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-01

CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY by Nicholas M. Chisler March 2016 Thesis Advisor...March 2016 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE RELATING TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS...WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Nicholas M. Chisler 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES

Joint adaptive modulation and diversity combining with feedback error compensation

KAUST Repository

Choi, Seyeong; Hong-Chuan, Yang; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim; Qaraqe, Khalid A.

2009-01-01

This letter investigates the effect of feedback error on the performance of the joint adaptive modulation and diversity combining (AMDC) scheme which was previously studied with an assumption of error-free feedback channels. We also propose to utilize adaptive diversity to compensate for the performance degradation due to feedback error. We accurately quantify the performance of the joint AMDC scheme in the presence of feedback error, in terms of the average number of combined paths, the average spectral efficiency, and the average bit error rate. Selected numerical examples are presented and discussed to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed feedback error compensation strategy with adaptive combining. It is observed that the proposed compensation strategy can offer considerable error performance improvement with little loss in processing power and spectral efficiency in comparison with the no compensation case. Copyright © 2009 IEEE.

Joint adaptive modulation and diversity combining with feedback error compensation

KAUST Repository

Choi, Seyeong

2009-11-01

This letter investigates the effect of feedback error on the performance of the joint adaptive modulation and diversity combining (AMDC) scheme which was previously studied with an assumption of error-free feedback channels. We also propose to utilize adaptive diversity to compensate for the performance degradation due to feedback error. We accurately quantify the performance of the joint AMDC scheme in the presence of feedback error, in terms of the average number of combined paths, the average spectral efficiency, and the average bit error rate. Selected numerical examples are presented and discussed to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed feedback error compensation strategy with adaptive combining. It is observed that the proposed compensation strategy can offer considerable error performance improvement with little loss in processing power and spectral efficiency in comparison with the no compensation case. Copyright © 2009 IEEE.

Occlusal consequence of using average condylar guidance settings: An in vitro study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Wonsup; Lim, Young-Jun; Kim, Myung-Joo; Kwon, Ho-Beom

2017-04-01

A simplified mounting technique that adopts an average condylar guidance has been advocated. Despite this, the experimental explanation of how average settings differ from individual condylar guidance remains unclear. The purpose of this in vitro study was to examine potential occlusal error by using average condylar guidance settings during nonworking side movement of the articulator. Three-dimensional positions of the nonworking side maxillary first molar at various condylar and incisal settings were traced using a laser displacement sensor attached to the motorized stages with biaxial freedom of movement. To examine clinically relevant occlusal consequences of condylar guidance setting errors, the vertical occlusal error was defined as the vertical-axis positional difference between the average setting trace and the other condylar guidance setting trace. In addition, the respective contribution of the condylar and incisal guidance to the position of the maxillary first molar area was analyzed by multiple regression analysis using the resultant coordinate data. Alteration from individual to average settings led to a positional difference in the maxillary first molar nonworking side movement. When the individual setting was lower than average, vertical occlusal error occurred, which might cause occlusal interference. The vertical occlusal error ranged from -2964 to 1711 μm. In addition, the occlusal effect of incisal guidance was measured as a partial regression coefficient of 0.882, which exceeded the effect of condylar guidance, 0.431. Potential occlusal error as a result of adopting an average condylar guidance setting was observed. The occlusal effect of incisal guidance doubled the effect of condylar guidance. Copyright © 2016 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Error-Related Negativity and Tic History in Pediatric Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD)

Science.gov (United States)

Hanna, Gregory L.; Carrasco, Melisa; Harbin, Shannon M.; Nienhuis, Jenna K.; LaRosa, Christina E.; Chen, Poyu; Fitzgerald, Kate D.; Gehring, William J.

2012-01-01

Objective The error-related negativity (ERN) is a negative deflection in the event-related potential following an incorrect response, which is often increased in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). However, the relationship of the ERN to comorbid tic disorders has not been examined in patients with OCD. This study compared ERN amplitudes in patients with tic-related OCD, patients with non-tic-related OCD, and healthy controls. Method The ERN, correct response negativity, and error number were measured during an Eriksen flanker task to assess performance monitoring in 44 youth with a lifetime diagnosis of OCD and 44 matched healthy controls ranging in age from 10 to 19 years. Nine youth with OCD had a lifetime history of tics. Results ERN amplitudewas significantly increased in OCD patients compared to healthy controls. ERN amplitude was significantly larger in patients with non-tic-related OCD than either patients with tic-related OCD or controls. ERN amplitude had a significant negative correlation with age in healthy controls but not patients with OCD. Instead, in patients with non-tic-related OCD, ERN amplitude had a significant positive correlation with age at onset of OCD symptoms. ERN amplitude in patients was unrelated to OCD symptom severity, current diagnostic status, or treatment effects. Conclusions The results provide further evidence of increased error-related brain activity in pediatric OCD. The difference in the ERN between patients with tic-related and non-tic-related OCD provides preliminary evidence of a neurobiological difference between these two OCD subtypes. The results indicate the ERN is a trait-like measure that may serve as a biomarker for non-tic-related OCD. PMID:22917203

Forecast Combination under Heavy-Tailed Errors

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Gang Cheng

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been done to obtain reliable forecast combinations for such situations. The familiar forecast combination methods, such as simple average, least squares regression or those based on the variance-covariance of the forecasts, may perform very poorly due to the fact that outliers tend to occur, and they make these methods have unstable weights, leading to un-robust forecasts. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose two nonparametric forecast combination methods. One is specially proposed for the situations in which the forecast errors are strongly believed to have heavy tails that can be modeled by a scaled Student’s t-distribution; the other is designed for relatively more general situations when there is a lack of strong or consistent evidence on the tail behaviors of the forecast errors due to a shortage of data and/or an evolving data-generating process. Adaptive risk bounds of both methods are developed. They show that the resulting combined forecasts yield near optimal mean forecast errors relative to the candidate forecasts. Simulations and a real example demonstrate their superior performance in that they indeed tend to have significantly smaller prediction errors than the previous combination methods in the presence of forecast outliers.

On the construction of a time base and the elimination of averaging errors in proxy records

Science.gov (United States)

Beelaerts, V.; De Ridder, F.; Bauwens, M.; Schmitz, N.; Pintelon, R.

2009-04-01

Proxies are sources of climate information which are stored in natural archives (e.g. ice-cores, sediment layers on ocean floors and animals with calcareous marine skeletons). Measuring these proxies produces very short records and mostly involves sampling solid substrates, which is subject to the following two problems: Problem 1: Natural archives are equidistantly sampled at a distance grid along their accretion axis. Starting from these distance series, a time series needs to be constructed, as comparison of different data records is only meaningful on a time grid. The time series will be non-equidistant, as the accretion rate is non-constant. Problem 2: A typical example of sampling solid substrates is drilling. Because of the dimensions of the drill, the holes drilled will not be infinitesimally small. Consequently, samples are not taken at a point in distance, but rather over a volume in distance. This holds for most sampling methods in solid substrates. As a consequence, when the continuous proxy signal is sampled, it will be averaged over the volume of the sample, resulting in an underestimation of the amplitude. Whether this averaging effect is significant, depends on the volume of the sample and the variations of interest of the proxy signal. Starting from the measured signal, the continuous signal needs to be reconstructed in order eliminate these averaging errors. The aim is to provide an efficient identification algorithm to identify the non-linearities in the distance-time relationship, called time base distortions, and to correct for the averaging effects. Because this is a parametric method, an assumption about the proxy signal needs to be made: the proxy record on a time base is assumed to be harmonic, this is an obvious assumption because natural archives often exhibit a seasonal cycle. In a first approach the averaging effects are assumed to be in one direction only, i.e. the direction of the axis on which the measurements were performed. The

An improved procedure for determining grain boundary diffusion coefficients from averaged concentration profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Gryaznov, D.; Fleig, J.; Maier, J.

2008-03-01

Whipple's solution of the problem of grain boundary diffusion and Le Claire's relation, which is often used to determine grain boundary diffusion coefficients, are examined for a broad range of ratios of grain boundary to bulk diffusivities Δ and diffusion times t. Different reasons leading to errors in determining the grain boundary diffusivity (DGB) when using Le Claire's relation are discussed. It is shown that nonlinearities of the diffusion profiles in lnCav-y6/5 plots and deviations from "Le Claire's constant" (-0.78) are the major error sources (Cav=averaged concentration, y =coordinate in diffusion direction). An improved relation (replacing Le Claire's constant) is suggested for analyzing diffusion profiles particularly suited for small diffusion lengths (short times) as often required in diffusion experiments on nanocrystalline materials.

Errors and mistakes in breast ultrasound diagnostics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wiesław Jakubowski

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Sonomammography is often the first additional examination performed in the diagnostics of breast diseases. The development of ultrasound imaging techniques, particularly the introduction of high frequency transducers, matrix transducers, harmonic imaging and finally, elastography, influenced the improvement of breast disease diagnostics. Neverthe‑ less, as in each imaging method, there are errors and mistakes resulting from the techni‑ cal limitations of the method, breast anatomy (fibrous remodeling, insufficient sensitivity and, in particular, specificity. Errors in breast ultrasound diagnostics can be divided into impossible to be avoided and potentially possible to be reduced. In this article the most frequently made errors in ultrasound have been presented, including the ones caused by the presence of artifacts resulting from volumetric averaging in the near and far field, artifacts in cysts or in dilated lactiferous ducts (reverberations, comet tail artifacts, lateral beam artifacts, improper setting of general enhancement or time gain curve or range. Errors dependent on the examiner, resulting in the wrong BIRADS‑usg classification, are divided into negative and positive errors. The sources of these errors have been listed. The methods of minimization of the number of errors made have been discussed, includ‑ ing the ones related to the appropriate examination technique, taking into account data from case history and the use of the greatest possible number of additional options such as: harmonic imaging, color and power Doppler and elastography. In the article examples of errors resulting from the technical conditions of the method have been presented, and those dependent on the examiner which are related to the great diversity and variation of ultrasound images of pathological breast lesions.

A Statistical Mechanics Approach to Approximate Analytical Bootstrap Averages

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Malzahn, Dorthe; Opper, Manfred

2003-01-01

We apply the replica method of Statistical Physics combined with a variational method to the approximate analytical computation of bootstrap averages for estimating the generalization error. We demonstrate our approach on regression with Gaussian processes and compare our results with averages...

Influence of random setup error on dose distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhai Zhenyu

2008-01-01

Objective: To investigate the influence of random setup error on dose distribution in radiotherapy and determine the margin from ITV to PTV. Methods: A random sample approach was used to simulate the fields position in target coordinate system. Cumulative effect of random setup error was the sum of dose distributions of all individual treatment fractions. Study of 100 cumulative effects might get shift sizes of 90% dose point position. Margins from ITV to PTV caused by random setup error were chosen by 95% probability. Spearman's correlation was used to analyze the influence of each factor. Results: The average shift sizes of 90% dose point position was 0.62, 1.84, 3.13, 4.78, 6.34 and 8.03 mm if random setup error was 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 mm,respectively. Univariate analysis showed the size of margin was associated only by the size of random setup error. Conclusions: Margin of ITV to PTV is 1.2 times random setup error for head-and-neck cancer and 1.5 times for thoracic and abdominal cancer. Field size, energy and target depth, unlike random setup error, have no relation with the size of the margin. (authors)

Senior High School Students' Errors on the Use of Relative Words

Science.gov (United States)

Bao, Xiaoli

2015-01-01

Relative clause is one of the most important language points in College English Examination. Teachers have been attaching great importance to the teaching of relative clause, but the outcomes are not satisfactory. Based on Error Analysis theory, this article aims to explore the reasons why senior high school students find it difficult to choose…

On the feedback error compensation for adaptive modulation and coding scheme

KAUST Repository

Choi, Seyeong

2011-11-25

In this paper, we consider the effect of feedback error on the performance of the joint adaptive modulation and diversity combining (AMDC) scheme which was previously studied with an assumption of perfect feedback channels. We quantify the performance of two joint AMDC schemes in the presence of feedback error, in terms of the average spectral efficiency, the average number of combined paths, and the average bit error rate. The benefit of feedback error compensation with adaptive combining is also quantified. Selected numerical examples are presented and discussed to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed feedback error compensation strategy with adaptive combining. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Statistical errors in Monte Carlo estimates of systematic errors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roe, Byron P. [Department of Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States)]. E-mail: byronroe@umich.edu

2007-01-01

For estimating the effects of a number of systematic errors on a data sample, one can generate Monte Carlo (MC) runs with systematic parameters varied and examine the change in the desired observed result. Two methods are often used. In the unisim method, the systematic parameters are varied one at a time by one standard deviation, each parameter corresponding to a MC run. In the multisim method (see ), each MC run has all of the parameters varied; the amount of variation is chosen from the expected distribution of each systematic parameter, usually assumed to be a normal distribution. The variance of the overall systematic error determination is derived for each of the two methods and comparisons are made between them. If one focuses not on the error in the prediction of an individual systematic error, but on the overall error due to all systematic errors in the error matrix element in data bin m, the number of events needed is strongly reduced because of the averaging effect over all of the errors. For simple models presented here the multisim model was far better if the statistical error in the MC samples was larger than an individual systematic error, while for the reverse case, the unisim model was better. Exact formulas and formulas for the simple toy models are presented so that realistic calculations can be made. The calculations in the present note are valid if the errors are in a linear region. If that region extends sufficiently far, one can have the unisims or multisims correspond to k standard deviations instead of one. This reduces the number of events required by a factor of k{sup 2}.

Statistical errors in Monte Carlo estimates of systematic errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roe, Byron P.

2007-01-01

For estimating the effects of a number of systematic errors on a data sample, one can generate Monte Carlo (MC) runs with systematic parameters varied and examine the change in the desired observed result. Two methods are often used. In the unisim method, the systematic parameters are varied one at a time by one standard deviation, each parameter corresponding to a MC run. In the multisim method (see ), each MC run has all of the parameters varied; the amount of variation is chosen from the expected distribution of each systematic parameter, usually assumed to be a normal distribution. The variance of the overall systematic error determination is derived for each of the two methods and comparisons are made between them. If one focuses not on the error in the prediction of an individual systematic error, but on the overall error due to all systematic errors in the error matrix element in data bin m, the number of events needed is strongly reduced because of the averaging effect over all of the errors. For simple models presented here the multisim model was far better if the statistical error in the MC samples was larger than an individual systematic error, while for the reverse case, the unisim model was better. Exact formulas and formulas for the simple toy models are presented so that realistic calculations can be made. The calculations in the present note are valid if the errors are in a linear region. If that region extends sufficiently far, one can have the unisims or multisims correspond to k standard deviations instead of one. This reduces the number of events required by a factor of k 2

Estimating average glandular dose by measuring glandular rate in mammograms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goto, Sachiko; Azuma, Yoshiharu; Sumimoto, Tetsuhiro; Eiho, Shigeru

2003-01-01

The glandular rate of the breast was objectively measured in order to calculate individual patient exposure dose (average glandular dose) in mammography. By employing image processing techniques and breast-equivalent phantoms with various glandular rate values, a conversion curve for pixel value to glandular rate can be determined by a neural network. Accordingly, the pixel values in clinical mammograms can be converted to the glandular rate value for each pixel. The individual average glandular dose can therefore be calculated using the individual glandular rates on the basis of the dosimetry method employed for quality control in mammography. In the present study, a data set of 100 craniocaudal mammograms from 50 patients was used to evaluate our method. The average glandular rate and average glandular dose of the data set were 41.2% and 1.79 mGy, respectively. The error in calculating the individual glandular rate can be estimated to be less than ±3%. When the calculation error of the glandular rate is taken into consideration, the error in the individual average glandular dose can be estimated to be 13% or less. We feel that our method for determining the glandular rate from mammograms is useful for minimizing subjectivity in the evaluation of patient breast composition. (author)

Social deviance activates the brain's error-monitoring system.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Bo-Rin; Liss, Alison; Rao, Monica; Singer, Zachary; Compton, Rebecca J

2012-03-01

Social psychologists have long noted the tendency for human behavior to conform to social group norms. This study examined whether feedback indicating that participants had deviated from group norms would elicit a neural signal previously shown to be elicited by errors and monetary losses. While electroencephalograms were recorded, participants (N = 30) rated the attractiveness of 120 faces and received feedback giving the purported average rating made by a group of peers. The feedback was manipulated so that group ratings either were the same as a participant's rating or deviated by 1, 2, or 3 points. Feedback indicating deviance from the group norm elicited a feedback-related negativity, a brainwave signal known to be elicited by objective performance errors and losses. The results imply that the brain treats deviance from social norms as an error.

Model parameter-related optimal perturbations and their contributions to El Niño prediction errors

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Ling-Jiang; Gao, Chuan; Zhang, Rong-Hua

2018-04-01

Errors in initial conditions and model parameters (MPs) are the main sources that limit the accuracy of ENSO predictions. In addition to exploring the initial error-induced prediction errors, model errors are equally important in determining prediction performance. In this paper, the MP-related optimal errors that can cause prominent error growth in ENSO predictions are investigated using an intermediate coupled model (ICM) and a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach. Two MPs related to the Bjerknes feedback are considered in the CNOP analysis: one involves the SST-surface wind coupling ({α _τ } ), and the other involves the thermocline effect on the SST ({α _{Te}} ). The MP-related optimal perturbations (denoted as CNOP-P) are found uniformly positive and restrained in a small region: the {α _τ } component is mainly concentrated in the central equatorial Pacific, and the {α _{Te}} component is mainly located in the eastern cold tongue region. This kind of CNOP-P enhances the strength of the Bjerknes feedback and induces an El Niño- or La Niña-like error evolution, resulting in an El Niño-like systematic bias in this model. The CNOP-P is also found to play a role in the spring predictability barrier (SPB) for ENSO predictions. Evidently, such error growth is primarily attributed to MP errors in small areas based on the localized distribution of CNOP-P. Further sensitivity experiments firmly indicate that ENSO simulations are sensitive to the representation of SST-surface wind coupling in the central Pacific and to the thermocline effect in the eastern Pacific in the ICM. These results provide guidance and theoretical support for the future improvement in numerical models to reduce the systematic bias and SPB phenomenon in ENSO predictions.

47 CFR 1.1167 - Error claims related to regulatory fees.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

...) Challenges to determinations or an insufficient regulatory fee payment or delinquent fees should be made in writing. A challenge to a determination that a party is delinquent in paying a standard regulatory fee... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Error claims related to regulatory fees. 1.1167...

Leading multiple teams: average and relative external leadership influences on team empowerment and effectiveness.

Science.gov (United States)

Luciano, Margaret M; Mathieu, John E; Ruddy, Thomas M

2014-03-01

External leaders continue to be an important source of influence even when teams are empowered, but it is not always clear how they do so. Extending research on structurally empowered teams, we recognize that teams' external leaders are often responsible for multiple teams. We adopt a multilevel approach to model external leader influences at both the team level and the external leader level of analysis. In doing so, we distinguish the influence of general external leader behaviors (i.e., average external leadership) from those that are directed differently toward the teams that they lead (i.e., relative external leadership). Analysis of data collected from 451 individuals, in 101 teams, reporting to 25 external leaders, revealed that both relative and average external leadership related positively to team empowerment. In turn, team empowerment related positively to team performance and member job satisfaction. However, while the indirect effects were all positive, we found that relative external leadership was not directly related to team performance, and average external leadership evidenced a significant negative direct influence. Additionally, relative external leadership exhibited a significant direct positive influence on member job satisfaction as anticipated, whereas average external leadership did not. These findings attest to the value in distinguishing external leaders' behaviors that are exhibited consistently versus differentially across empowered teams. Implications and future directions for the study and management of external leaders overseeing multiple teams are discussed.

Research trend on human error reduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miyaoka, Sadaoki

1990-01-01

Human error has been the problem in all industries. In 1988, the Bureau of Mines, Department of the Interior, USA, carried out the worldwide survey on the human error in all industries in relation to the fatal accidents in mines. There was difference in the results according to the methods of collecting data, but the proportion that human error took in the total accidents distributed in the wide range of 20∼85%, and was 35% on the average. The rate of occurrence of accidents and troubles in Japanese nuclear power stations is shown, and the rate of occurrence of human error is 0∼0.5 cases/reactor-year, which did not much vary. Therefore, the proportion that human error took in the total tended to increase, and it has become important to reduce human error for lowering the rate of occurrence of accidents and troubles hereafter. After the TMI accident in 1979 in USA, the research on man-machine interface became active, and after the Chernobyl accident in 1986 in USSR, the problem of organization and management has been studied. In Japan, 'Safety 21' was drawn up by the Advisory Committee for Energy, and also the annual reports on nuclear safety pointed out the importance of human factors. The state of the research on human factors in Japan and abroad and three targets to reduce human error are reported. (K.I.)

An Experimental Study Related to Planning Abilities of Gifted and Average Students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marilena Z. Leana-Taşcılar

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Gifted students differ from their average peers in psychological, social, emotional and cognitive development. One of these differences in the cognitive domain is related to executive functions. One of the most important executive functions is planning and organization ability. The aim of this study was to compare planning abilities of gifted students with those of their average peers and to test the effectiveness of a training program on planning abilities of gifted students and average students. First, students’ intelligence and planning abilities were measured and then assigned to either experimental or control group. The groups were matched by intelligence and planning ability (experimental: (13 gifted and 8 average; control: 14 gifted and 8 average. In total 182 students (79 gifted and 103 average participated in the study. Then, a training program was implemented in the experimental group to find out if it improved students’ planning ability. Results showed that boys had better planning abilities than girls did, and gifted students had better planning abilities than their average peers did. Significant results were obtained in favor of the experimental group in the posttest scores

Evaluating Equating Results: Percent Relative Error for Chained Kernel Equating

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Yanlin; von Davier, Alina A.; Chen, Haiwen

2012-01-01

This article presents a method for evaluating equating results. Within the kernel equating framework, the percent relative error (PRE) for chained equipercentile equating was computed under the nonequivalent groups with anchor test (NEAT) design. The method was applied to two data sets to obtain the PRE, which can be used to measure equating…

Effects of learning climate and registered nurse staffing on medication errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, YunKyung; Mark, Barbara

2011-01-01

Despite increasing recognition of the significance of learning from errors, little is known about how learning climate contributes to error reduction. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether learning climate moderates the relationship between error-producing conditions and medication errors. A cross-sectional descriptive study was done using data from 279 nursing units in 146 randomly selected hospitals in the United States. Error-producing conditions included work environment factors (work dynamics and nurse mix), team factors (communication with physicians and nurses' expertise), personal factors (nurses' education and experience), patient factors (age, health status, and previous hospitalization), and medication-related support services. Poisson models with random effects were used with the nursing unit as the unit of analysis. A significant negative relationship was found between learning climate and medication errors. It also moderated the relationship between nurse mix and medication errors: When learning climate was negative, having more registered nurses was associated with fewer medication errors. However, no relationship was found between nurse mix and medication errors at either positive or average levels of learning climate. Learning climate did not moderate the relationship between work dynamics and medication errors. The way nurse mix affects medication errors depends on the level of learning climate. Nursing units with fewer registered nurses and frequent medication errors should examine their learning climate. Future research should be focused on the role of learning climate as related to the relationships between nurse mix and medication errors.

Semi-Blind Error Resilient SLM for PAPR Reduction in OFDM Using Spread Spectrum Codes

Science.gov (United States)

Elhelw, Amr M.; Badran, Ehab F.

2015-01-01

High peak to average power ratio (PAPR) is one of the major problems of OFDM systems. Selected mapping (SLM) is a promising choice that can elegantly tackle this problem. Nevertheless, side information (SI) index is required to be transmitted which reduces the overall throughput. This paper proposes a semi-blind error resilient SLM system that utilizes spread spectrum codes for embedding the SI index in the transmitted symbols. The codes are embedded in an innovative manner which does not increase the average energy per symbol. The use of such codes allows the correction of probable errors in the SI index detection. A new receiver, which does not require perfect channel state information (CSI) for the detection of the SI index and has relatively low computational complexity, is proposed. Simulations results show that the proposed system performs well both in terms SI index detection error and bit error rate. PMID:26018504

Semi-Blind Error Resilient SLM for PAPR Reduction in OFDM Using Spread Spectrum Codes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amr M Elhelw

Full Text Available High peak to average power ratio (PAPR is one of the major problems of OFDM systems. Selected mapping (SLM is a promising choice that can elegantly tackle this problem. Nevertheless, side information (SI index is required to be transmitted which reduces the overall throughput. This paper proposes a semi-blind error resilient SLM system that utilizes spread spectrum codes for embedding the SI index in the transmitted symbols. The codes are embedded in an innovative manner which does not increase the average energy per symbol. The use of such codes allows the correction of probable errors in the SI index detection. A new receiver, which does not require perfect channel state information (CSI for the detection of the SI index and has relatively low computational complexity, is proposed. Simulations results show that the proposed system performs well both in terms SI index detection error and bit error rate.

Statistical evaluation of design-error related accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, K.O.; Marchaterre, J.F.

1980-01-01

In a recently published paper (Campbell and Ott, 1979), a general methodology was proposed for the statistical evaluation of design-error related accidents. The evaluation aims at an estimate of the combined residual frequency of yet unknown types of accidents lurking in a certain technological system. Here, the original methodology is extended, as to apply to a variety of systems that evolves during the development of large-scale technologies. A special categorization of incidents and accidents is introduced to define the events that should be jointly analyzed. The resulting formalism is applied to the development of the nuclear power reactor technology, considering serious accidents that involve in the accident-progression a particular design inadequacy

Average subentropy, coherence and entanglement of random mixed quantum states

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Lin, E-mail: godyalin@163.com [Institute of Mathematics, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 310018 (China); Singh, Uttam, E-mail: uttamsingh@hri.res.in [Harish-Chandra Research Institute, Allahabad, 211019 (India); Pati, Arun K., E-mail: akpati@hri.res.in [Harish-Chandra Research Institute, Allahabad, 211019 (India)

2017-02-15

Compact expressions for the average subentropy and coherence are obtained for random mixed states that are generated via various probability measures. Surprisingly, our results show that the average subentropy of random mixed states approaches the maximum value of the subentropy which is attained for the maximally mixed state as we increase the dimension. In the special case of the random mixed states sampled from the induced measure via partial tracing of random bipartite pure states, we establish the typicality of the relative entropy of coherence for random mixed states invoking the concentration of measure phenomenon. Our results also indicate that mixed quantum states are less useful compared to pure quantum states in higher dimension when we extract quantum coherence as a resource. This is because of the fact that average coherence of random mixed states is bounded uniformly, however, the average coherence of random pure states increases with the increasing dimension. As an important application, we establish the typicality of relative entropy of entanglement and distillable entanglement for a specific class of random bipartite mixed states. In particular, most of the random states in this specific class have relative entropy of entanglement and distillable entanglement equal to some fixed number (to within an arbitrary small error), thereby hugely reducing the complexity of computation of these entanglement measures for this specific class of mixed states.

Impact of MLC leaf position errors on simple and complex IMRT plans for head and neck cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mu, G; Ludlum, E; Xia, P

2008-01-01

The dosimetric impact of random and systematic multi-leaf collimator (MLC) leaf position errors is relatively unknown for head and neck intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) patients. In this report we studied 17 head and neck IMRT patients, including 12 treated with simple plans ( 100 segments). Random errors (-2 to +2 mm) and systematic errors (±0.5 mm and ±1 mm) in MLC leaf positions were introduced into the clinical plans and the resultant dose distributions were analyzed based on defined endpoint doses. The dosimetric effect was insignificant for random MLC leaf position errors up to 2 mm for both simple and complex plans. However, for systematic MLC leaf position errors, we found significant dosimetric differences between the simple and complex IMRT plans. For 1 mm systematic error, the average changes in D 95% were 4% in simple plans versus 8% in complex plans. The average changes in D 0.1cc of the spinal cord and brain stem were 4% in simple plans versus 12% in complex plans. The average changes in parotid glands were 9% in simple plans versus 13% for the complex plans. Overall, simple IMRT plans are less sensitive to leaf position errors than complex IMRT plans

On the Correspondence between Mean Forecast Errors and Climate Errors in CMIP5 Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ma, H. -Y.; Xie, S.; Klein, S. A.; Williams, K. D.; Boyle, J. S.; Bony, S.; Douville, H.; Fermepin, S.; Medeiros, B.; Tyteca, S.; Watanabe, M.; Williamson, D.

2014-02-01

The present study examines the correspondence between short- and long-term systematic errors in five atmospheric models by comparing the 16 five-day hindcast ensembles from the Transpose Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II (Transpose-AMIP II) for July–August 2009 (short term) to the climate simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and AMIP for the June–August mean conditions of the years of 1979–2008 (long term). Because the short-term hindcasts were conducted with identical climate models used in the CMIP5/AMIP simulations, one can diagnose over what time scale systematic errors in these climate simulations develop, thus yielding insights into their origin through a seamless modeling approach. The analysis suggests that most systematic errors of precipitation, clouds, and radiation processes in the long-term climate runs are present by day 5 in ensemble average hindcasts in all models. Errors typically saturate after few days of hindcasts with amplitudes comparable to the climate errors, and the impacts of initial conditions on the simulated ensemble mean errors are relatively small. This robust bias correspondence suggests that these systematic errors across different models likely are initiated by model parameterizations since the atmospheric large-scale states remain close to observations in the first 2–3 days. However, biases associated with model physics can have impacts on the large-scale states by day 5, such as zonal winds, 2-m temperature, and sea level pressure, and the analysis further indicates a good correspondence between short- and long-term biases for these large-scale states. Therefore, improving individual model parameterizations in the hindcast mode could lead to the improvement of most climate models in simulating their climate mean state and potentially their future projections.

WE-G-BRA-04: Common Errors and Deficiencies in Radiation Oncology Practice

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kry, S; Dromgoole, L; Alvarez, P; Lowenstein, J; Molineu, A; Taylor, P; Followill, D [UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States)

2015-06-15

Purpose: Dosimetric errors in radiotherapy dose delivery lead to suboptimal treatments and outcomes. This work reviews the frequency and severity of dosimetric and programmatic errors identified by on-site audits performed by the IROC Houston QA center. Methods: IROC Houston on-site audits evaluate absolute beam calibration, relative dosimetry data compared to the treatment planning system data, and processes such as machine QA. Audits conducted from 2000-present were abstracted for recommendations, including type of recommendation and magnitude of error when applicable. Dosimetric recommendations corresponded to absolute dose errors >3% and relative dosimetry errors >2%. On-site audits of 1020 accelerators at 409 institutions were reviewed. Results: A total of 1280 recommendations were made (average 3.1/institution). The most common recommendation was for inadequate QA procedures per TG-40 and/or TG-142 (82% of institutions) with the most commonly noted deficiency being x-ray and electron off-axis constancy versus gantry angle. Dosimetrically, the most common errors in relative dosimetry were in small-field output factors (59% of institutions), wedge factors (33% of institutions), off-axis factors (21% of institutions), and photon PDD (18% of institutions). Errors in calibration were also problematic: 20% of institutions had an error in electron beam calibration, 8% had an error in photon beam calibration, and 7% had an error in brachytherapy source calibration. Almost all types of data reviewed included errors up to 7% although 20 institutions had errors in excess of 10%, and 5 had errors in excess of 20%. The frequency of electron calibration errors decreased significantly with time, but all other errors show non-significant changes. Conclusion: There are many common and often serious errors made during the establishment and maintenance of a radiotherapy program that can be identified through independent peer review. Physicists should be cautious, particularly

WE-G-BRA-04: Common Errors and Deficiencies in Radiation Oncology Practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kry, S; Dromgoole, L; Alvarez, P; Lowenstein, J; Molineu, A; Taylor, P; Followill, D

2015-01-01

Purpose: Dosimetric errors in radiotherapy dose delivery lead to suboptimal treatments and outcomes. This work reviews the frequency and severity of dosimetric and programmatic errors identified by on-site audits performed by the IROC Houston QA center. Methods: IROC Houston on-site audits evaluate absolute beam calibration, relative dosimetry data compared to the treatment planning system data, and processes such as machine QA. Audits conducted from 2000-present were abstracted for recommendations, including type of recommendation and magnitude of error when applicable. Dosimetric recommendations corresponded to absolute dose errors >3% and relative dosimetry errors >2%. On-site audits of 1020 accelerators at 409 institutions were reviewed. Results: A total of 1280 recommendations were made (average 3.1/institution). The most common recommendation was for inadequate QA procedures per TG-40 and/or TG-142 (82% of institutions) with the most commonly noted deficiency being x-ray and electron off-axis constancy versus gantry angle. Dosimetrically, the most common errors in relative dosimetry were in small-field output factors (59% of institutions), wedge factors (33% of institutions), off-axis factors (21% of institutions), and photon PDD (18% of institutions). Errors in calibration were also problematic: 20% of institutions had an error in electron beam calibration, 8% had an error in photon beam calibration, and 7% had an error in brachytherapy source calibration. Almost all types of data reviewed included errors up to 7% although 20 institutions had errors in excess of 10%, and 5 had errors in excess of 20%. The frequency of electron calibration errors decreased significantly with time, but all other errors show non-significant changes. Conclusion: There are many common and often serious errors made during the establishment and maintenance of a radiotherapy program that can be identified through independent peer review. Physicists should be cautious, particularly

Attitudes of Mashhad Public Hospital's Nurses and Midwives toward the Causes and Rates of Medical Errors Reporting.

Science.gov (United States)

Mobarakabadi, Sedigheh Sedigh; Ebrahimipour, Hosein; Najar, Ali Vafaie; Janghorban, Roksana; Azarkish, Fatemeh

2017-03-01

Patient's safety is one of the main objective in healthcare services; however medical errors are a prevalent potential occurrence for the patients in treatment systems. Medical errors lead to an increase in mortality rate of the patients and challenges such as prolonging of the inpatient period in the hospitals and increased cost. Controlling the medical errors is very important, because these errors besides being costly, threaten the patient's safety. To evaluate the attitudes of nurses and midwives toward the causes and rates of medical errors reporting. It was a cross-sectional observational study. The study population was 140 midwives and nurses employed in Mashhad Public Hospitals. The data collection was done through Goldstone 2001 revised questionnaire. SPSS 11.5 software was used for data analysis. To analyze data, descriptive and inferential analytic statistics were used. Standard deviation and relative frequency distribution, descriptive statistics were used for calculation of the mean and the results were adjusted as tables and charts. Chi-square test was used for the inferential analysis of the data. Most of midwives and nurses (39.4%) were in age range of 25 to 34 years and the lowest percentage (2.2%) were in age range of 55-59 years. The highest average of medical errors was related to employees with three-four years of work experience, while the lowest average was related to those with one-two years of work experience. The highest average of medical errors was during the evening shift, while the lowest were during the night shift. Three main causes of medical errors were considered: illegibile physician prescription orders, similarity of names in different drugs and nurse fatigueness. The most important causes for medical errors from the viewpoints of nurses and midwives are illegible physician's order, drug name similarity with other drugs, nurse's fatigueness and damaged label or packaging of the drug, respectively. Head nurse feedback, peer

Function reconstruction from noisy local averages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Yu; Huang Jianguo; Han Weimin

2008-01-01

A regularization method is proposed for the function reconstruction from noisy local averages in any dimension. Error bounds for the approximate solution in L 2 -norm are derived. A number of numerical examples are provided to show computational performance of the method, with the regularization parameters selected by different strategies

Formulation of uncertainty relation of error and disturbance in quantum measurement by using quantum estimation theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Watanabe; Masahito Ueda

2012-01-01

Full text: When we try to obtain information about a quantum system, we need to perform measurement on the system. The measurement process causes unavoidable state change. Heisenberg discussed a thought experiment of the position measurement of a particle by using a gamma-ray microscope, and found a trade-off relation between the error of the measured position and the disturbance in the momentum caused by the measurement process. The trade-off relation epitomizes the complementarity in quantum measurements: we cannot perform a measurement of an observable without causing disturbance in its canonically conjugate observable. However, at the time Heisenberg found the complementarity, quantum measurement theory was not established yet, and Kennard and Robertson's inequality erroneously interpreted as a mathematical formulation of the complementarity. Kennard and Robertson's inequality actually implies the indeterminacy of the quantum state: non-commuting observables cannot have definite values simultaneously. However, Kennard and Robertson's inequality reflects the inherent nature of a quantum state alone, and does not concern any trade-off relation between the error and disturbance in the measurement process. In this talk, we report a resolution to the complementarity in quantum measurements. First, we find that it is necessary to involve the estimation process from the outcome of the measurement for quantifying the error and disturbance in the quantum measurement. We clarify the implicitly involved estimation process in Heisenberg's gamma-ray microscope and other measurement schemes, and formulate the error and disturbance for an arbitrary quantum measurement by using quantum estimation theory. The error and disturbance are defined in terms of the Fisher information, which gives the upper bound of the accuracy of the estimation. Second, we obtain uncertainty relations between the measurement errors of two observables [1], and between the error and disturbance in the

Task types and error types involved in the human-related unplanned reactor trip events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jae Whan; Park, Jin Kyun

2008-01-01

In this paper, the contribution of task types and error types involved in the human-related unplanned reactor trip events that have occurred between 1986 and 2006 in Korean nuclear power plants are analysed in order to establish a strategy for reducing the human-related unplanned reactor trips. Classification systems for the task types, error modes, and cognitive functions are developed or adopted from the currently available taxonomies, and the relevant information is extracted from the event reports or judged on the basis of an event description. According to the analyses from this study, the contributions of the task types are as follows: corrective maintenance (25.7%), planned maintenance (22.8%), planned operation (19.8%), periodic preventive maintenance (14.9%), response to a transient (9.9%), and design/manufacturing/installation (6.9%). According to the analysis of the error modes, error modes such as control failure (22.2%), wrong object (18.5%), omission (14.8%), wrong action (11.1%), and inadequate (8.3%) take up about 75% of the total unplanned trip events. The analysis of the cognitive functions involved in the events indicated that the planning function had the highest contribution (46.7%) to the human actions leading to unplanned reactor trips. This analysis concludes that in order to significantly reduce human-induced or human-related unplanned reactor trips, an aide system (in support of maintenance personnel) for evaluating possible (negative) impacts of planned actions or erroneous actions as well as an appropriate human error prediction technique, should be developed

Task types and error types involved in the human-related unplanned reactor trip events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Jae Whan; Park, Jin Kyun [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2008-12-15

In this paper, the contribution of task types and error types involved in the human-related unplanned reactor trip events that have occurred between 1986 and 2006 in Korean nuclear power plants are analysed in order to establish a strategy for reducing the human-related unplanned reactor trips. Classification systems for the task types, error modes, and cognitive functions are developed or adopted from the currently available taxonomies, and the relevant information is extracted from the event reports or judged on the basis of an event description. According to the analyses from this study, the contributions of the task types are as follows: corrective maintenance (25.7%), planned maintenance (22.8%), planned operation (19.8%), periodic preventive maintenance (14.9%), response to a transient (9.9%), and design/manufacturing/installation (6.9%). According to the analysis of the error modes, error modes such as control failure (22.2%), wrong object (18.5%), omission (14.8%), wrong action (11.1%), and inadequate (8.3%) take up about 75% of the total unplanned trip events. The analysis of the cognitive functions involved in the events indicated that the planning function had the highest contribution (46.7%) to the human actions leading to unplanned reactor trips. This analysis concludes that in order to significantly reduce human-induced or human-related unplanned reactor trips, an aide system (in support of maintenance personnel) for evaluating possible (negative) impacts of planned actions or erroneous actions as well as an appropriate human error prediction technique, should be developed.

Simultaneous inference for model averaging of derived parameters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Signe Marie; Ritz, Christian

2015-01-01

Model averaging is a useful approach for capturing uncertainty due to model selection. Currently, this uncertainty is often quantified by means of approximations that do not easily extend to simultaneous inference. Moreover, in practice there is a need for both model averaging and simultaneous...... inference for derived parameters calculated in an after-fitting step. We propose a method for obtaining asymptotically correct standard errors for one or several model-averaged estimates of derived parameters and for obtaining simultaneous confidence intervals that asymptotically control the family...

Evaluation of localization errors for craniospinal axis irradiation delivery using volume modulated arc therapy and proposal of a technique to minimize such errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Myers, Pamela; Stathakis, Sotirios; Mavroidis, Panayiotis; Esquivel, Carlos; Papanikolaou, Niko

2013-01-01

reduced by 11.7%, 8.5%, 12.4%, and 13.9% on average for the 1, 2, 5, and 10 mm shifted plans. Conclusions: Setup errors related to isocenter shifting should be minimized in order to provide the patient with the most dosimetrically accurate treatment possible. Errors of 1–2 mm can negatively affect the quality of the delivered treatment, most notably in the arc junction area, but the deterioration of the treatment plan accuracy is not as problematic as in the cases of larger errors such as 5–10 mm. By employing a new planning technique, the dose differences due to setup errors can be greatly reduced

Field error lottery

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elliott, C.J.; McVey, B. (Los Alamos National Lab., NM (USA)); Quimby, D.C. (Spectra Technology, Inc., Bellevue, WA (USA))

1990-01-01

The level of field errors in an FEL is an important determinant of its performance. We have computed 3D performance of a large laser subsystem subjected to field errors of various types. These calculations have been guided by simple models such as SWOOP. The technique of choice is utilization of the FELEX free electron laser code that now possesses extensive engineering capabilities. Modeling includes the ability to establish tolerances of various types: fast and slow scale field bowing, field error level, beam position monitor error level, gap errors, defocusing errors, energy slew, displacement and pointing errors. Many effects of these errors on relative gain and relative power extraction are displayed and are the essential elements of determining an error budget. The random errors also depend on the particular random number seed used in the calculation. The simultaneous display of the performance versus error level of cases with multiple seeds illustrates the variations attributable to stochasticity of this model. All these errors are evaluated numerically for comprehensive engineering of the system. In particular, gap errors are found to place requirements beyond mechanical tolerances of {plus minus}25{mu}m, and amelioration of these may occur by a procedure utilizing direct measurement of the magnetic fields at assembly time. 4 refs., 12 figs.

Statistical errors in Monte Carlo estimates of systematic errors

Science.gov (United States)

Roe, Byron P.

2007-01-01

For estimating the effects of a number of systematic errors on a data sample, one can generate Monte Carlo (MC) runs with systematic parameters varied and examine the change in the desired observed result. Two methods are often used. In the unisim method, the systematic parameters are varied one at a time by one standard deviation, each parameter corresponding to a MC run. In the multisim method (see ), each MC run has all of the parameters varied; the amount of variation is chosen from the expected distribution of each systematic parameter, usually assumed to be a normal distribution. The variance of the overall systematic error determination is derived for each of the two methods and comparisons are made between them. If one focuses not on the error in the prediction of an individual systematic error, but on the overall error due to all systematic errors in the error matrix element in data bin m, the number of events needed is strongly reduced because of the averaging effect over all of the errors. For simple models presented here the multisim model was far better if the statistical error in the MC samples was larger than an individual systematic error, while for the reverse case, the unisim model was better. Exact formulas and formulas for the simple toy models are presented so that realistic calculations can be made. The calculations in the present note are valid if the errors are in a linear region. If that region extends sufficiently far, one can have the unisims or multisims correspond to k standard deviations instead of one. This reduces the number of events required by a factor of k2. The specific terms unisim and multisim were coined by Peter Meyers and Steve Brice, respectively, for the MiniBooNE experiment. However, the concepts have been developed over time and have been in general use for some time.

Error-related negativities during spelling judgments expose orthographic knowledge.

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Lindsay N; Perfetti, Charles A; Rickles, Benjamin

2014-02-01

In two experiments, we demonstrate that error-related negativities (ERNs) recorded during spelling decisions can expose individual differences in lexical knowledge. The first experiment found that the ERN was elicited during spelling decisions and that its magnitude was correlated with independent measures of subjects' spelling knowledge. In the second experiment, we manipulated the phonology of misspelled stimuli and observed that ERN magnitudes were larger when misspelled words altered the phonology of their correctly spelled counterparts than when they preserved it. Thus, when an error is made in a decision about spelling, the brain processes indexed by the ERN reflect both phonological and orthographic input to the decision process. In both experiments, ERN effect sizes were correlated with assessments of lexical knowledge and reading, including offline spelling ability and spelling-mediated vocabulary knowledge. These results affirm the interdependent nature of orthographic, semantic, and phonological knowledge components while showing that spelling knowledge uniquely influences the ERN during spelling decisions. Finally, the study demonstrates the value of ERNs in exposing individual differences in lexical knowledge. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fitting a function to time-dependent ensemble averaged data.

Science.gov (United States)

Fogelmark, Karl; Lomholt, Michael A; Irbäck, Anders; Ambjörnsson, Tobias

2018-05-03

Time-dependent ensemble averages, i.e., trajectory-based averages of some observable, are of importance in many fields of science. A crucial objective when interpreting such data is to fit these averages (for instance, squared displacements) with a function and extract parameters (such as diffusion constants). A commonly overlooked challenge in such function fitting procedures is that fluctuations around mean values, by construction, exhibit temporal correlations. We show that the only available general purpose function fitting methods, correlated chi-square method and the weighted least squares method (which neglects correlation), fail at either robust parameter estimation or accurate error estimation. We remedy this by deriving a new closed-form error estimation formula for weighted least square fitting. The new formula uses the full covariance matrix, i.e., rigorously includes temporal correlations, but is free of the robustness issues, inherent to the correlated chi-square method. We demonstrate its accuracy in four examples of importance in many fields: Brownian motion, damped harmonic oscillation, fractional Brownian motion and continuous time random walks. We also successfully apply our method, weighted least squares including correlation in error estimation (WLS-ICE), to particle tracking data. The WLS-ICE method is applicable to arbitrary fit functions, and we provide a publically available WLS-ICE software.

Einstein's error

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winterflood, A.H.

1980-01-01

In discussing Einstein's Special Relativity theory it is claimed that it violates the principle of relativity itself and that an anomalous sign in the mathematics is found in the factor which transforms one inertial observer's measurements into those of another inertial observer. The apparent source of this error is discussed. Having corrected the error a new theory, called Observational Kinematics, is introduced to replace Einstein's Special Relativity. (U.K.)

Fitting a function to time-dependent ensemble averaged data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fogelmark, Karl; Lomholt, Michael A.; Irbäck, Anders

2018-01-01

Time-dependent ensemble averages, i.e., trajectory-based averages of some observable, are of importance in many fields of science. A crucial objective when interpreting such data is to fit these averages (for instance, squared displacements) with a function and extract parameters (such as diffusion...... method, weighted least squares including correlation in error estimation (WLS-ICE), to particle tracking data. The WLS-ICE method is applicable to arbitrary fit functions, and we provide a publically available WLS-ICE software....

Average-case analysis of numerical problems

CERN Document Server

2000-01-01

The average-case analysis of numerical problems is the counterpart of the more traditional worst-case approach. The analysis of average error and cost leads to new insight on numerical problems as well as to new algorithms. The book provides a survey of results that were mainly obtained during the last 10 years and also contains new results. The problems under consideration include approximation/optimal recovery and numerical integration of univariate and multivariate functions as well as zero-finding and global optimization. Background material, e.g. on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces and random fields, is provided.

Evaluation of Navigation System Accuracy Indexes for Deviation Reading from Average Range

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexey Boykov

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The method for estimating the mean of square error, kurtosis and error correlation coefficient for deviations from the average range of three navigation parameter indications from the outputs of three information sensors is substantiated and developed.

45 CFR 98.100 - Error Rate Report.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND... the total dollar amount of payments made in the sample); the average amount of improper payment; and... not received. (e) Costs of Preparing the Error Rate Report—Provided the error rate calculations and...

The effects of field errors on low-gain free-electron lasers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esarey, E.; Tang, C.M.; Marable, W.P.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on the effects of random wiggler magnetic field errors on low-gain free-electron lasers that are examined analytically and numerically through the use of ensemble averaging techniques. Wiggler field errors perturb the electron beam as it propagates and lead to a random walk of the beam centroid δx, variations in the axial beam energy δ γz and deviations in the relative phase of the electrons in the ponderomotive wave δψ. In principle, the random walk may be kept as small as desired through the use of transverse focusing and beam steering. Transverse focusing of the electron beam is shown to be ineffective in reducing the phase deviation. Furthermore, it is shown that beam steering at the wiggler entrance reduces the average phase deviation at the end of the wiggler by 1/3. The effect of the field errors (via the phase deviation) on the gain in the low-gain regime is calculated. To avoid significant reduction in gain it is necessary for the phase deviation to be small compared to 2π. The detrimental effects of wiggler errors on low-gain free-electron lasers may be reduced by arranging the magnet poles in an optimal ordering such that the magnitude of the phase deviation is minimized

SCIAMACHY WFM-DOAS XCO2: reduction of scattering related errors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Sussmann

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Global observations of column-averaged dry air mole fractions of carbon dioxide (CO2, denoted by XCO2 , retrieved from SCIAMACHY on-board ENVISAT can provide important and missing global information on the distribution and magnitude of regional CO2 surface fluxes. This application has challenging precision and accuracy requirements. In a previous publication (Heymann et al., 2012, it has been shown by analysing seven years of SCIAMACHY WFM-DOAS XCO2 (WFMDv2.1 that unaccounted thin cirrus clouds can result in significant errors. In order to enhance the quality of the SCIAMACHY XCO2 data product, we have developed a new version of the retrieval algorithm (WFMDv2.2, which is described in this manuscript. It is based on an improved cloud filtering and correction method using the 1.4 μm strong water vapour absorption and 0.76 μm O2-A bands. The new algorithm has been used to generate a SCIAMACHY XCO2 data set covering the years 2003–2009. The new XCO2 data set has been validated using ground-based observations from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON. The validation shows a significant improvement of the new product (v2.2 in comparison to the previous product (v2.1. For example, the standard deviation of the difference to TCCON at Darwin, Australia, has been reduced from 4 ppm to 2 ppm. The monthly regional-scale scatter of the data (defined as the mean intra-monthly standard deviation of all quality filtered XCO2 retrievals within a radius of 350 km around various locations has also been reduced, typically by a factor of about 1.5. Overall, the validation of the new WFMDv2.2 XCO2 data product can be summarised by a single measurement precision of 3.8 ppm, an estimated regional-scale (radius of 500 km precision of monthly averages of 1.6 ppm and an estimated regional-scale relative accuracy of 0.8 ppm. In addition to the comparison with the limited number of TCCON sites, we also present a comparison with NOAA's global CO2 modelling

Operator errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knuefer; Lindauer

1980-01-01

Besides that at spectacular events a combination of component failure and human error is often found. Especially the Rasmussen-Report and the German Risk Assessment Study show for pressurised water reactors that human error must not be underestimated. Although operator errors as a form of human error can never be eliminated entirely, they can be minimized and their effects kept within acceptable limits if a thorough training of personnel is combined with an adequate design of the plant against accidents. Contrary to the investigation of engineering errors, the investigation of human errors has so far been carried out with relatively small budgets. Intensified investigations in this field appear to be a worthwhile effort. (orig.)

Isoelectronic sequence fits to configuration-averaged photoionization cross sections and ionization energies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, R.E.H.; Cowan, R.D.; Bobrowicz, F.W.

1986-01-01

Hartree--Fock wave functions have been used to calculate configuration -averaged photoionization cross sections and ionization energies for orbitals 1s< or =nl< or =5g in He-like through Al-like isoelectroni csequences. The photoionization cross sections have been fitted as a function of the nuclear charge, Z, and photon energy, X, in threshold units, with average error of less than 10%. The ionization energies have been fitted as a function of Z with errors of less than 0.5%

Error rate of automated calculation for wound surface area using a digital photography.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, S; Park, J; Lee, H; Lee, J B; Lee, B U; Oh, B H

2018-02-01

Although measuring would size using digital photography is a quick and simple method to evaluate the skin wound, the possible compatibility of it has not been fully validated. To investigate the error rate of our newly developed wound surface area calculation using digital photography. Using a smartphone and a digital single lens reflex (DSLR) camera, four photographs of various sized wounds (diameter: 0.5-3.5 cm) were taken from the facial skin model in company with color patches. The quantitative values of wound areas were automatically calculated. The relative error (RE) of this method with regard to wound sizes and types of camera was analyzed. RE of individual calculated area was from 0.0329% (DSLR, diameter 1.0 cm) to 23.7166% (smartphone, diameter 2.0 cm). In spite of the correction of lens curvature, smartphone has significantly higher error rate than DSLR camera (3.9431±2.9772 vs 8.1303±4.8236). However, in cases of wound diameter below than 3 cm, REs of average values of four photographs were below than 5%. In addition, there was no difference in the average value of wound area taken by smartphone and DSLR camera in those cases. For the follow-up of small skin defect (diameter: <3 cm), our newly developed automated wound area calculation method is able to be applied to the plenty of photographs, and the average values of them are a relatively useful index of wound healing with acceptable error rate. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/Large Eddy Simulation of a Cavity Flameholder; Assessment of Modeling Sensitivities

Science.gov (United States)

Baurle, R. A.

2015-01-01

Steady-state and scale-resolving simulations have been performed for flow in and around a model scramjet combustor flameholder. The cases simulated corresponded to those used to examine this flowfield experimentally using particle image velocimetry. A variety of turbulence models were used for the steady-state Reynolds-averaged simulations which included both linear and non-linear eddy viscosity models. The scale-resolving simulations used a hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation strategy that is designed to be a large eddy simulation everywhere except in the inner portion (log layer and below) of the boundary layer. Hence, this formulation can be regarded as a wall-modeled large eddy simulation. This effort was undertaken to formally assess the performance of the hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation modeling approach in a flowfield of interest to the scramjet research community. The numerical errors were quantified for both the steady-state and scale-resolving simulations prior to making any claims of predictive accuracy relative to the measurements. The steady-state Reynolds-averaged results showed a high degree of variability when comparing the predictions obtained from each turbulence model, with the non-linear eddy viscosity model (an explicit algebraic stress model) providing the most accurate prediction of the measured values. The hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large eddy simulation results were carefully scrutinized to ensure that even the coarsest grid had an acceptable level of resolution for large eddy simulation, and that the time-averaged statistics were acceptably accurate. The autocorrelation and its Fourier transform were the primary tools used for this assessment. The statistics extracted from the hybrid simulation strategy proved to be more accurate than the Reynolds-averaged results obtained using the linear eddy viscosity models. However, there was no predictive improvement noted over the results obtained from the explicit

Errores innatos del metabolismo de las purinas y otras enfermedades relacionadas Inborn purine metabolism errors and other related diseases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiovanna Contreras Roura

2012-06-01

growth, recurrent infections, self-mutilation, immunodeficiencies, unexplainable haemolytic anemia, gout-related arthritis, family history, consanguinity and adverse reactions to those drugs that are analogous of purines. The study of these diseases generally begins by quantifying serum uric acid and uric acid present in the urine which is the final product of purine metabolism in human beings. Diet and drug consumption are among the pathological, physiological and clinical conditions capable of changing the level of this compound. This review was intended to disseminate information on the inborn purine metabolism errors as well as to facilitate the interpretation of the uric acid levels and other biochemical markers making the diagnosis of these diseases possible. The tables relating these diseases to the excretory levels of uric acid and other biochemical markers, the altered enzymes, the clinical symptoms, the model of inheritance, and in some cases, the suggested treatment. This paper allowed us to affirm that variations in the uric acid levels and the presence of other biochemical markers in urine are important tools in screening some inborn purine metabolism errors, and also other related pathological conditions.

Cognitive and system factors contributing to diagnostic errors in radiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Cindy S; Nagy, Paul G; Weaver, Sallie J; Newman-Toker, David E

2013-09-01

In this article, we describe some of the cognitive and system-based sources of detection and interpretation errors in diagnostic radiology and discuss potential approaches to help reduce misdiagnoses. Every radiologist worries about missing a diagnosis or giving a false-positive reading. The retrospective error rate among radiologic examinations is approximately 30%, with real-time errors in daily radiology practice averaging 3-5%. Nearly 75% of all medical malpractice claims against radiologists are related to diagnostic errors. As medical reimbursement trends downward, radiologists attempt to compensate by undertaking additional responsibilities to increase productivity. The increased workload, rising quality expectations, cognitive biases, and poor system factors all contribute to diagnostic errors in radiology. Diagnostic errors are underrecognized and underappreciated in radiology practice. This is due to the inability to obtain reliable national estimates of the impact, the difficulty in evaluating effectiveness of potential interventions, and the poor response to systemwide solutions. Most of our clinical work is executed through type 1 processes to minimize cost, anxiety, and delay; however, type 1 processes are also vulnerable to errors. Instead of trying to completely eliminate cognitive shortcuts that serve us well most of the time, becoming aware of common biases and using metacognitive strategies to mitigate the effects have the potential to create sustainable improvement in diagnostic errors.

Diagnostic errors in pediatric radiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, George A.; Voss, Stephan D.; Melvin, Patrice R.; Graham, Dionne A.

2011-01-01

Little information is known about the frequency, types and causes of diagnostic errors in imaging children. Our goals were to describe the patterns and potential etiologies of diagnostic error in our subspecialty. We reviewed 265 cases with clinically significant diagnostic errors identified during a 10-year period. Errors were defined as a diagnosis that was delayed, wrong or missed; they were classified as perceptual, cognitive, system-related or unavoidable; and they were evaluated by imaging modality and level of training of the physician involved. We identified 484 specific errors in the 265 cases reviewed (mean:1.8 errors/case). Most discrepancies involved staff (45.5%). Two hundred fifty-eight individual cognitive errors were identified in 151 cases (mean = 1.7 errors/case). Of these, 83 cases (55%) had additional perceptual or system-related errors. One hundred sixty-five perceptual errors were identified in 165 cases. Of these, 68 cases (41%) also had cognitive or system-related errors. Fifty-four system-related errors were identified in 46 cases (mean = 1.2 errors/case) of which all were multi-factorial. Seven cases were unavoidable. Our study defines a taxonomy of diagnostic errors in a large academic pediatric radiology practice and suggests that most are multi-factorial in etiology. Further study is needed to define effective strategies for improvement. (orig.)

Propagation of errors from a null balance terahertz reflectometer to a sample's relative water content

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hadjiloucas, S; Walker, G C; Bowen, J W; Zafiropoulos, A

2009-01-01

The THz water content index of a sample is defined and advantages in using such metric in estimating a sample's relative water content are discussed. The errors from reflectance measurements performed at two different THz frequencies using a quasi-optical null-balance reflectometer are propagated to the errors in estimating the sample water content index.

Error-related negativity varies with the activation of gender stereotypes.

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Ma, Qingguo; Shu, Liangchao; Wang, Xiaoyi; Dai, Shenyi; Che, Hongmin

2008-09-19

The error-related negativity (ERN) was suggested to reflect the response-performance monitoring process. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the activation of gender stereotypes influences the ERN. Twenty-eight male participants were asked to complete a tool or kitchenware identification task. The prime stimulus is a picture of a male or female face and the target stimulus is either a kitchen utensil or a hand tool. The ERN amplitude on male-kitchenware trials is significantly larger than that on female-kitchenware trials, which reveals the low-level, automatic activation of gender stereotypes. The ERN that was elicited in this task has two sources--operation errors and the conflict between the gender stereotype activation and the non-prejudice beliefs. And the gender stereotype activation may be the key factor leading to this difference of ERN. In other words, the stereotype activation in this experimental paradigm may be indexed by the ERN.

Error in the delivery of radiation therapy: Results of a quality assurance review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Grace; Medlam, Gaylene; Lee, Justin; Billingsley, Susan; Bissonnette, Jean-Pierre; Ringash, Jolie; Kane, Gabrielle; Hodgson, David C.

2005-01-01

Purpose: To examine error rates in the delivery of radiation therapy (RT), technical factors associated with RT errors, and the influence of a quality improvement intervention on the RT error rate. Methods and materials: We undertook a review of all RT errors that occurred at the Princess Margaret Hospital (Toronto) from January 1, 1997, to December 31, 2002. Errors were identified according to incident report forms that were completed at the time the error occurred. Error rates were calculated per patient, per treated volume (≥1 volume per patient), and per fraction delivered. The association between tumor site and error was analyzed. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between technical factors and the risk of error. Results: Over the study interval, there were 555 errors among 28,136 patient treatments delivered (error rate per patient = 1.97%, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.81-2.14%) and among 43,302 treated volumes (error rate per volume = 1.28%, 95% CI, 1.18-1.39%). The proportion of fractions with errors from July 1, 2000, to December 31, 2002, was 0.29% (95% CI, 0.27-0.32%). Patients with sarcoma or head-and-neck tumors experienced error rates significantly higher than average (5.54% and 4.58%, respectively); however, when the number of treated volumes was taken into account, the head-and-neck error rate was no longer higher than average (1.43%). The use of accessories was associated with an increased risk of error, and internal wedges were more likely to be associated with an error than external wedges (relative risk = 2.04; 95% CI, 1.11-3.77%). Eighty-seven errors (15.6%) were directly attributed to incorrect programming of the 'record and verify' system. Changes to planning and treatment processes aimed at reducing errors within the head-and-neck site group produced a substantial reduction in the error rate. Conclusions: Errors in the delivery of RT are uncommon and usually of little clinical significance. Patient subgroups and

Valuation Biases, Error Measures, and the Conglomerate Discount

NARCIS (Netherlands)

I. Dittmann (Ingolf); E.G. Maug (Ernst)

2006-01-01

textabstractWe document the importance of the choice of error measure (percentage vs. logarithmic errors) for the comparison of alternative valuation procedures. We demonstrate for several multiple valuation methods (averaging with the arithmetic mean, harmonic mean, median, geometric mean) that the

The content of lexical stimuli and self-reported physiological state modulate error-related negativity amplitude.

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Benau, Erik M; Moelter, Stephen T

2016-09-01

The Error-Related Negativity (ERN) and Correct-Response Negativity (CRN) are brief event-related potential (ERP) components-elicited after the commission of a response-associated with motivation, emotion, and affect. The Error Positivity (Pe) typically appears after the ERN, and corresponds to awareness of having committed an error. Although motivation has long been established as an important factor in the expression and morphology of the ERN, physiological state has rarely been explored as a variable in these investigations. In the present study, we investigated whether self-reported physiological state (SRPS; wakefulness, hunger, or thirst) corresponds with ERN amplitude and type of lexical stimuli. Participants completed a SRPS questionnaire and then completed a speeded Lexical Decision Task with words and pseudowords that were either food-related or neutral. Though similar in frequency and length, food-related stimuli elicited increased accuracy, faster errors, and generated a larger ERN and smaller CRN than neutral words. Self-reported thirst correlated with improved accuracy and smaller ERN and CRN amplitudes. The Pe and Pc (correct positivity) were not impacted by physiological state or by stimulus content. The results indicate that physiological state and manipulations of lexical content may serve as important avenues for future research. Future studies that apply more sensitive measures of physiological and motivational state (e.g., biomarkers for satiety) or direct manipulations of satiety may be a useful technique for future research into response monitoring. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Outlier Removal and the Relation with Reporting Errors and Quality of Psychological Research

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Bakker, Marjan; Wicherts, Jelte M.

2014-01-01

Background The removal of outliers to acquire a significant result is a questionable research practice that appears to be commonly used in psychology. In this study, we investigated whether the removal of outliers in psychology papers is related to weaker evidence (against the null hypothesis of no effect), a higher prevalence of reporting errors, and smaller sample sizes in these papers compared to papers in the same journals that did not report the exclusion of outliers from the analyses. Methods and Findings We retrieved a total of 2667 statistical results of null hypothesis significance tests from 153 articles in main psychology journals, and compared results from articles in which outliers were removed (N = 92) with results from articles that reported no exclusion of outliers (N = 61). We preregistered our hypotheses and methods and analyzed the data at the level of articles. Results show no significant difference between the two types of articles in median p value, sample sizes, or prevalence of all reporting errors, large reporting errors, and reporting errors that concerned the statistical significance. However, we did find a discrepancy between the reported degrees of freedom of t tests and the reported sample size in 41% of articles that did not report removal of any data values. This suggests common failure to report data exclusions (or missingness) in psychological articles. Conclusions We failed to find that the removal of outliers from the analysis in psychological articles was related to weaker evidence (against the null hypothesis of no effect), sample size, or the prevalence of errors. However, our control sample might be contaminated due to nondisclosure of excluded values in articles that did not report exclusion of outliers. Results therefore highlight the importance of more transparent reporting of statistical analyses. PMID:25072606

Software platform for managing the classification of error- related potentials of observers

Science.gov (United States)

Asvestas, P.; Ventouras, E.-C.; Kostopoulos, S.; Sidiropoulos, K.; Korfiatis, V.; Korda, A.; Uzunolglu, A.; Karanasiou, I.; Kalatzis, I.; Matsopoulos, G.

2015-09-01

Human learning is partly based on observation. Electroencephalographic recordings of subjects who perform acts (actors) or observe actors (observers), contain a negative waveform in the Evoked Potentials (EPs) of the actors that commit errors and of observers who observe the error-committing actors. This waveform is called the Error-Related Negativity (ERN). Its detection has applications in the context of Brain-Computer Interfaces. The present work describes a software system developed for managing EPs of observers, with the aim of classifying them into observations of either correct or incorrect actions. It consists of an integrated platform for the storage, management, processing and classification of EPs recorded during error-observation experiments. The system was developed using C# and the following development tools and frameworks: MySQL, .NET Framework, Entity Framework and Emgu CV, for interfacing with the machine learning library of OpenCV. Up to six features can be computed per EP recording per electrode. The user can select among various feature selection algorithms and then proceed to train one of three types of classifiers: Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, k-nearest neighbour. Next the classifier can be used for classifying any EP curve that has been inputted to the database.

A Relative View on Tracking Error

NARCIS (Netherlands)

W.G.P.M. Hallerbach (Winfried); I. Pouchkarev (Igor)

2005-01-01

textabstractWhen delegating an investment decisions to a professional manager, investors often anchor their mandate to a specific benchmark. The manager’s exposure to risk is controlled by means of a tracking error volatility constraint. It depends on market conditions whether this constraint is

Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

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Adler, Robert; Gu, Guojun; Huffman, George

2012-01-01

A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a

Estimating Gestational Age With Sonography: Regression-Derived Formula Versus the Fetal Biometric Average.

Science.gov (United States)

Cawyer, Chase R; Anderson, Sarah B; Szychowski, Jeff M; Neely, Cherry; Owen, John

2018-03-01

To compare the accuracy of a new regression-derived formula developed from the National Fetal Growth Studies data to the common alternative method that uses the average of the gestational ages (GAs) calculated for each fetal biometric measurement (biparietal diameter, head circumference, abdominal circumference, and femur length). This retrospective cross-sectional study identified nonanomalous singleton pregnancies that had a crown-rump length plus at least 1 additional sonographic examination with complete fetal biometric measurements. With the use of the crown-rump length to establish the referent estimated date of delivery, each method's (National Institute of Child Health and Human Development regression versus Hadlock average [Radiology 1984; 152:497-501]), error at every examination was computed. Error, defined as the difference between the crown-rump length-derived GA and each method's predicted GA (weeks), was compared in 3 GA intervals: 1 (14 weeks-20 weeks 6 days), 2 (21 weeks-28 weeks 6 days), and 3 (≥29 weeks). In addition, the proportion of each method's examinations that had errors outside prespecified (±) day ranges was computed by using odds ratios. A total of 16,904 sonograms were identified. The overall and prespecified GA range subset mean errors were significantly smaller for the regression compared to the average (P < .01), and the regression had significantly lower odds of observing examinations outside the specified range of error in GA intervals 2 (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.31) and 3 (odds ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-1.32) than the average method. In a contemporary unselected population of women dated by a crown-rump length-derived GA, the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development regression formula produced fewer estimates outside a prespecified margin of error than the commonly used Hadlock average; the differences were most pronounced for GA estimates at 29 weeks and later. �

Error-related ERP components and individual differences in punishment and reward sensitivity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boksem, Maarten A. S.; Tops, Mattie; Wester, Anne E.; Meijman, Theo F.; Lorist, Monique M.

2006-01-01

Although the focus of the discussion regarding the significance of the error related negatively (ERN/Ne) has been on the cognitive factors reflected in this component, there is now a growing body of research that describes influences of motivation, affective style and other factors of personality on

Religious Fundamentalism Modulates Neural Responses to Error-Related Words: The Role of Motivation Toward Closure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Małgorzata Kossowska

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Examining the relationship between brain activity and religious fundamentalism, this study explores whether fundamentalist religious beliefs increase responses to error-related words among participants intolerant to uncertainty (i.e., high in the need for closure in comparison to those who have a high degree of toleration for uncertainty (i.e., those who are low in the need for closure. We examine a negative-going event-related brain potentials occurring 400 ms after stimulus onset (the N400 due to its well-understood association with the reactions to emotional conflict. Religious fundamentalism and tolerance of uncertainty were measured on self-report measures, and electroencephalographic neural reactivity was recorded as participants were performing an emotional Stroop task. In this task, participants read neutral words and words related to uncertainty, errors, and pondering, while being asked to name the color of the ink with which the word is written. The results confirm that among people who are intolerant of uncertainty (i.e., those high in the need for closure, religious fundamentalism is associated with an increased N400 on error-related words compared with people who tolerate uncertainty well (i.e., those low in the need for closure.

Religious Fundamentalism Modulates Neural Responses to Error-Related Words: The Role of Motivation Toward Closure.

Science.gov (United States)

Kossowska, Małgorzata; Szwed, Paulina; Wyczesany, Miroslaw; Czarnek, Gabriela; Wronka, Eligiusz

2018-01-01

Examining the relationship between brain activity and religious fundamentalism, this study explores whether fundamentalist religious beliefs increase responses to error-related words among participants intolerant to uncertainty (i.e., high in the need for closure) in comparison to those who have a high degree of toleration for uncertainty (i.e., those who are low in the need for closure). We examine a negative-going event-related brain potentials occurring 400 ms after stimulus onset (the N400) due to its well-understood association with the reactions to emotional conflict. Religious fundamentalism and tolerance of uncertainty were measured on self-report measures, and electroencephalographic neural reactivity was recorded as participants were performing an emotional Stroop task. In this task, participants read neutral words and words related to uncertainty, errors, and pondering, while being asked to name the color of the ink with which the word is written. The results confirm that among people who are intolerant of uncertainty (i.e., those high in the need for closure), religious fundamentalism is associated with an increased N400 on error-related words compared with people who tolerate uncertainty well (i.e., those low in the need for closure).

Religious Fundamentalism Modulates Neural Responses to Error-Related Words: The Role of Motivation Toward Closure

Science.gov (United States)

Kossowska, Małgorzata; Szwed, Paulina; Wyczesany, Miroslaw; Czarnek, Gabriela; Wronka, Eligiusz

2018-01-01

Examining the relationship between brain activity and religious fundamentalism, this study explores whether fundamentalist religious beliefs increase responses to error-related words among participants intolerant to uncertainty (i.e., high in the need for closure) in comparison to those who have a high degree of toleration for uncertainty (i.e., those who are low in the need for closure). We examine a negative-going event-related brain potentials occurring 400 ms after stimulus onset (the N400) due to its well-understood association with the reactions to emotional conflict. Religious fundamentalism and tolerance of uncertainty were measured on self-report measures, and electroencephalographic neural reactivity was recorded as participants were performing an emotional Stroop task. In this task, participants read neutral words and words related to uncertainty, errors, and pondering, while being asked to name the color of the ink with which the word is written. The results confirm that among people who are intolerant of uncertainty (i.e., those high in the need for closure), religious fundamentalism is associated with an increased N400 on error-related words compared with people who tolerate uncertainty well (i.e., those low in the need for closure). PMID:29636709

Evidence for specificity of the impact of punishment on error-related brain activity in high versus low trait anxious individuals.

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Meyer, Alexandria; Gawlowska, Magda

2017-10-01

A previous study suggests that when participants were punished with a loud noise after committing errors, the error-related negativity (ERN) was enhanced in high trait anxious individuals. The current study sought to extend these findings by examining the ERN in conditions when punishment was related and unrelated to error commission as a function of individual differences in trait anxiety symptoms; further, the current study utilized an electric shock as an aversive unconditioned stimulus. Results confirmed that the ERN was increased when errors were punished among high trait anxious individuals compared to low anxious individuals; this effect was not observed when punishment was unrelated to errors. Findings suggest that the threat-value of errors may underlie the association between certain anxious traits and punishment-related increases in the ERN. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevention of prescription errors by computerized, on-line, individual patient related surveillance of drug order entry.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliven, A; Zalman, D; Shilankov, Y; Yeshurun, D; Odeh, M

2002-01-01

Computerized prescription of drugs is expected to reduce the number of many preventable drug ordering errors. In the present study we evaluated the usefullness of a computerized drug order entry (CDOE) system in reducing prescription errors. A department of internal medicine using a comprehensive CDOE, which included also patient-related drug-laboratory, drug-disease and drug-allergy on-line surveillance was compared to a similar department in which drug orders were handwritten. CDOE reduced prescription errors to 25-35%. The causes of errors remained similar, and most errors, on both departments, were associated with abnormal renal function and electrolyte balance. Residual errors remaining on the CDOE-using department were due to handwriting on the typed order, failure to feed patients' diseases, and system failures. The use of CDOE was associated with a significant reduction in mean hospital stay and in the number of changes performed in the prescription. The findings of this study both quantity the impact of comprehensive CDOE on prescription errors and delineate the causes for remaining errors.

Class-specific Error Bounds for Ensemble Classifiers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prenger, R; Lemmond, T; Varshney, K; Chen, B; Hanley, W

2009-10-06

The generalization error, or probability of misclassification, of ensemble classifiers has been shown to be bounded above by a function of the mean correlation between the constituent (i.e., base) classifiers and their average strength. This bound suggests that increasing the strength and/or decreasing the correlation of an ensemble's base classifiers may yield improved performance under the assumption of equal error costs. However, this and other existing bounds do not directly address application spaces in which error costs are inherently unequal. For applications involving binary classification, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, performance curves that explicitly trade off false alarms and missed detections, are often utilized to support decision making. To address performance optimization in this context, we have developed a lower bound for the entire ROC curve that can be expressed in terms of the class-specific strength and correlation of the base classifiers. We present empirical analyses demonstrating the efficacy of these bounds in predicting relative classifier performance. In addition, we specify performance regions of the ROC curve that are naturally delineated by the class-specific strengths of the base classifiers and show that each of these regions can be associated with a unique set of guidelines for performance optimization of binary classifiers within unequal error cost regimes.

Error modeling for surrogates of dynamical systems using machine learning: Machine-learning-based error model for surrogates of dynamical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trehan, Sumeet; Carlberg, Kevin T.; Durlofsky, Louis J.

2017-01-01

A machine learning–based framework for modeling the error introduced by surrogate models of parameterized dynamical systems is proposed. The framework entails the use of high-dimensional regression techniques (eg, random forests, and LASSO) to map a large set of inexpensively computed “error indicators” (ie, features) produced by the surrogate model at a given time instance to a prediction of the surrogate-model error in a quantity of interest (QoI). This eliminates the need for the user to hand-select a small number of informative features. The methodology requires a training set of parameter instances at which the time-dependent surrogate-model error is computed by simulating both the high-fidelity and surrogate models. Using these training data, the method first determines regression-model locality (via classification or clustering) and subsequently constructs a “local” regression model to predict the time-instantaneous error within each identified region of feature space. We consider 2 uses for the resulting error model: (1) as a correction to the surrogate-model QoI prediction at each time instance and (2) as a way to statistically model arbitrary functions of the time-dependent surrogate-model error (eg, time-integrated errors). We then apply the proposed framework to model errors in reduced-order models of nonlinear oil-water subsurface flow simulations, with time-varying well-control (bottom-hole pressure) parameters. The reduced-order models used in this work entail application of trajectory piecewise linearization in conjunction with proper orthogonal decomposition. Moreover, when the first use of the method is considered, numerical experiments demonstrate consistent improvement in accuracy in the time-instantaneous QoI prediction relative to the original surrogate model, across a large number of test cases. When the second use is considered, results show that the proposed method provides accurate statistical predictions of the time- and well-averaged

The modulating effect of personality traits on neural error monitoring: evidence from event-related FMRI.

Science.gov (United States)

Sosic-Vasic, Zrinka; Ulrich, Martin; Ruchsow, Martin; Vasic, Nenad; Grön, Georg

2012-01-01

The present study investigated the association between traits of the Five Factor Model of Personality (Neuroticism, Extraversion, Openness for Experiences, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness) and neural correlates of error monitoring obtained from a combined Eriksen-Flanker-Go/NoGo task during event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging in 27 healthy subjects. Individual expressions of personality traits were measured using the NEO-PI-R questionnaire. Conscientiousness correlated positively with error signaling in the left inferior frontal gyrus and adjacent anterior insula (IFG/aI). A second strong positive correlation was observed in the anterior cingulate gyrus (ACC). Neuroticism was negatively correlated with error signaling in the inferior frontal cortex possibly reflecting the negative inter-correlation between both scales observed on the behavioral level. Under present statistical thresholds no significant results were obtained for remaining scales. Aligning the personality trait of Conscientiousness with task accomplishment striving behavior the correlation in the left IFG/aI possibly reflects an inter-individually different involvement whenever task-set related memory representations are violated by the occurrence of errors. The strong correlations in the ACC may indicate that more conscientious subjects were stronger affected by these violations of a given task-set expressed by individually different, negatively valenced signals conveyed by the ACC upon occurrence of an error. Present results illustrate that for predicting individual responses to errors underlying personality traits should be taken into account and also lend external validity to the personality trait approach suggesting that personality constructs do reflect more than mere descriptive taxonomies.

The modulating effect of personality traits on neural error monitoring: evidence from event-related FMRI.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zrinka Sosic-Vasic

Full Text Available The present study investigated the association between traits of the Five Factor Model of Personality (Neuroticism, Extraversion, Openness for Experiences, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness and neural correlates of error monitoring obtained from a combined Eriksen-Flanker-Go/NoGo task during event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging in 27 healthy subjects. Individual expressions of personality traits were measured using the NEO-PI-R questionnaire. Conscientiousness correlated positively with error signaling in the left inferior frontal gyrus and adjacent anterior insula (IFG/aI. A second strong positive correlation was observed in the anterior cingulate gyrus (ACC. Neuroticism was negatively correlated with error signaling in the inferior frontal cortex possibly reflecting the negative inter-correlation between both scales observed on the behavioral level. Under present statistical thresholds no significant results were obtained for remaining scales. Aligning the personality trait of Conscientiousness with task accomplishment striving behavior the correlation in the left IFG/aI possibly reflects an inter-individually different involvement whenever task-set related memory representations are violated by the occurrence of errors. The strong correlations in the ACC may indicate that more conscientious subjects were stronger affected by these violations of a given task-set expressed by individually different, negatively valenced signals conveyed by the ACC upon occurrence of an error. Present results illustrate that for predicting individual responses to errors underlying personality traits should be taken into account and also lend external validity to the personality trait approach suggesting that personality constructs do reflect more than mere descriptive taxonomies.

Modeling the Error of the Medtronic Paradigm Veo Enlite Glucose Sensor.

Science.gov (United States)

Biagi, Lyvia; Ramkissoon, Charrise M; Facchinetti, Andrea; Leal, Yenny; Vehi, Josep

2017-06-12

Continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) are prone to inaccuracy due to time lags, sensor drift, calibration errors, and measurement noise. The aim of this study is to derive the model of the error of the second generation Medtronic Paradigm Veo Enlite (ENL) sensor and compare it with the Dexcom SEVEN PLUS (7P), G4 PLATINUM (G4P), and advanced G4 for Artificial Pancreas studies (G4AP) systems. An enhanced methodology to a previously employed technique was utilized to dissect the sensor error into several components. The dataset used included 37 inpatient sessions in 10 subjects with type 1 diabetes (T1D), in which CGMs were worn in parallel and blood glucose (BG) samples were analyzed every 15 ± 5 min Calibration error and sensor drift of the ENL sensor was best described by a linear relationship related to the gain and offset. The mean time lag estimated by the model is 9.4 ± 6.5 min. The overall average mean absolute relative difference (MARD) of the ENL sensor was 11.68 ± 5.07% Calibration error had the highest contribution to total error in the ENL sensor. This was also reported in the 7P, G4P, and G4AP. The model of the ENL sensor error will be useful to test the in silico performance of CGM-based applications, i.e., the artificial pancreas, employing this kind of sensor.

Averaging problem in general relativity, macroscopic gravity and using Einstein's equations in cosmology.

Science.gov (United States)

Zalaletdinov, R. M.

1998-04-01

The averaging problem in general relativity is briefly discussed. A new setting of the problem as that of macroscopic description of gravitation is proposed. A covariant space-time averaging procedure is described. The structure of the geometry of macroscopic space-time, which follows from averaging Cartan's structure equations, is described and the correlation tensors present in the theory are discussed. The macroscopic field equations (averaged Einstein's equations) derived in the framework of the approach are presented and their structure is analysed. The correspondence principle for macroscopic gravity is formulated and a definition of the stress-energy tensor for the macroscopic gravitational field is proposed. It is shown that the physical meaning of using Einstein's equations with a hydrodynamic stress-energy tensor in looking for cosmological models means neglecting all gravitational field correlations. The system of macroscopic gravity equations to be solved when the correlations are taken into consideration is given and described.

Auto-adaptive averaging: Detecting artifacts in event-related potential data using a fully automated procedure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Talsma, D.

2008-01-01

The auto-adaptive averaging procedure proposed here classifies artifacts in event-related potential data by optimizing the signal-to-noise ratio. This method rank orders single trials according to the impact of each trial on the ERP average. Then, the minimum residual background noise level in the

Auto-adaptive averaging: Detecting artifacts in event-related potential data using a fully automated procedure.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Talsma, D.

2008-01-01

The auto-adaptive averaging procedure proposed here classifies artifacts in event-related potential data by optimizing the signal-to-noise ratio. This method rank orders single trials according to the impact of each trial on the ERP average. Then, the minimum residual background noise level in the

Gearbox fault diagnosis based on time-frequency domain synchronous averaging and feature extraction technique

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Shengli; Tang, Jiong

2016-04-01

Gearbox is one of the most vulnerable subsystems in wind turbines. Its healthy status significantly affects the efficiency and function of the entire system. Vibration based fault diagnosis methods are prevalently applied nowadays. However, vibration signals are always contaminated by noise that comes from data acquisition errors, structure geometric errors, operation errors, etc. As a result, it is difficult to identify potential gear failures directly from vibration signals, especially for the early stage faults. This paper utilizes synchronous averaging technique in time-frequency domain to remove the non-synchronous noise and enhance the fault related time-frequency features. The enhanced time-frequency information is further employed in gear fault classification and identification through feature extraction algorithms including Kernel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA), Multilinear Principal Component Analysis (MPCA), and Locally Linear Embedding (LLE). Results show that the LLE approach is the most effective to classify and identify different gear faults.

Social Errors in Four Cultures: Evidence about Universal Forms of Social Relations.

Science.gov (United States)

Fiske, Alan Page

1993-01-01

To test the cross-cultural generality of relational-models theory, 4 studies with 70 adults examined social errors of substitution of persons for Bengali, Korean, Chinese, and Vai (Liberia and Sierra Leone) subjects. In all four cultures, people tend to substitute someone with whom they have the same basic relationship. (SLD)

Barriers to medication error reporting among hospital nurses.

Science.gov (United States)

Rutledge, Dana N; Retrosi, Tina; Ostrowski, Gary

2018-03-01

The study purpose was to report medication error reporting barriers among hospital nurses, and to determine validity and reliability of an existing medication error reporting barriers questionnaire. Hospital medication errors typically occur between ordering of a medication to its receipt by the patient with subsequent staff monitoring. To decrease medication errors, factors surrounding medication errors must be understood; this requires reporting by employees. Under-reporting can compromise patient safety by disabling improvement efforts. This 2017 descriptive study was part of a larger workforce engagement study at a faith-based Magnet ® -accredited community hospital in California (United States). Registered nurses (~1,000) were invited to participate in the online survey via email. Reported here are sample demographics (n = 357) and responses to the 20-item medication error reporting barriers questionnaire. Using factor analysis, four factors that accounted for 67.5% of the variance were extracted. These factors (subscales) were labelled Fear, Cultural Barriers, Lack of Knowledge/Feedback and Practical/Utility Barriers; each demonstrated excellent internal consistency. The medication error reporting barriers questionnaire, originally developed in long-term care, demonstrated good validity and excellent reliability among hospital nurses. Substantial proportions of American hospital nurses (11%-48%) considered specific factors as likely reporting barriers. Average scores on most barrier items were categorised "somewhat unlikely." The highest six included two barriers concerning the time-consuming nature of medication error reporting and four related to nurses' fear of repercussions. Hospitals need to determine the presence of perceived barriers among nurses using questionnaires such as the medication error reporting barriers and work to encourage better reporting. Barriers to medication error reporting make it less likely that nurses will report medication

Understanding errors in EIA projections of energy demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fischer, Carolyn; Herrnstadt, Evan; Morgenstern, Richard [Resources for the Future, 1616 P St. NW, Washington, DC 20036 (United States)

2009-08-15

This paper investigates the potential for systematic errors in the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) widely used Annual Energy Outlook, focusing on the near- to mid-term projections of energy demand. Based on analysis of the EIA's 22-year projection record, we find a fairly modest but persistent tendency to underestimate total energy demand by an average of 2 percent per year after controlling for projection errors in gross domestic product, oil prices, and heating/cooling degree days. For 14 individual fuels/consuming sectors routinely reported by the EIA, we observe a great deal of directional consistency in the errors over time, ranging up to 7 percent per year. Electric utility renewables, electric utility natural gas, transportation distillate, and residential electricity show significant biases on average. Projections for certain other sectors have significant unexplained errors for selected time horizons. Such independent evaluation can be useful for validating analytic efforts and for prioritizing future model revisions. (author)

Errors, error detection, error correction and hippocampal-region damage: data and theories.

Science.gov (United States)

MacKay, Donald G; Johnson, Laura W

2013-11-01

This review and perspective article outlines 15 observational constraints on theories of errors, error detection, and error correction, and their relation to hippocampal-region (HR) damage. The core observations come from 10 studies with H.M., an amnesic with cerebellar and HR damage but virtually no neocortical damage. Three studies examined the detection of errors planted in visual scenes (e.g., a bird flying in a fish bowl in a school classroom) and sentences (e.g., I helped themselves to the birthday cake). In all three experiments, H.M. detected reliably fewer errors than carefully matched memory-normal controls. Other studies examined the detection and correction of self-produced errors, with controls for comprehension of the instructions, impaired visual acuity, temporal factors, motoric slowing, forgetting, excessive memory load, lack of motivation, and deficits in visual scanning or attention. In these studies, H.M. corrected reliably fewer errors than memory-normal and cerebellar controls, and his uncorrected errors in speech, object naming, and reading aloud exhibited two consistent features: omission and anomaly. For example, in sentence production tasks, H.M. omitted one or more words in uncorrected encoding errors that rendered his sentences anomalous (incoherent, incomplete, or ungrammatical) reliably more often than controls. Besides explaining these core findings, the theoretical principles discussed here explain H.M.'s retrograde amnesia for once familiar episodic and semantic information; his anterograde amnesia for novel information; his deficits in visual cognition, sentence comprehension, sentence production, sentence reading, and object naming; and effects of aging on his ability to read isolated low frequency words aloud. These theoretical principles also explain a wide range of other data on error detection and correction and generate new predictions for future test. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Average of delta: a new quality control tool for clinical laboratories.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Graham R D

2016-01-01

Average of normals is a tool used to control assay performance using the average of a series of results from patients' samples. Delta checking is a process of identifying errors in individual patient results by reviewing the difference from previous results of the same patient. This paper introduces a novel alternate approach, average of delta, which combines these concepts to use the average of a number of sequential delta values to identify changes in assay performance. Models for average of delta and average of normals were developed in a spreadsheet application. The model assessed the expected scatter of average of delta and average of normals functions and the effect of assay bias for different values of analytical imprecision and within- and between-subject biological variation and the number of samples included in the calculations. The final assessment was the number of patients' samples required to identify an added bias with 90% certainty. The model demonstrated that with larger numbers of delta values, the average of delta function was tighter (lower coefficient of variation). The optimal number of samples for bias detection with average of delta was likely to be between 5 and 20 for most settings and that average of delta outperformed average of normals when the within-subject biological variation was small relative to the between-subject variation. Average of delta provides a possible additional assay quality control tool which theoretical modelling predicts may be more valuable than average of normals for analytes where the group biological variation is wide compared with within-subject variation and where there is a high rate of repeat testing in the laboratory patient population. © The Author(s) 2015.

The impact of a brief mindfulness meditation intervention on cognitive control and error-related performance monitoring

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael J Larson

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Meditation is associated with positive health behaviors and improved cognitive control. One mechanism for the relationship between meditation and cognitive control is changes in activity of the anterior cingulate cortex-mediated neural pathways. The error-related negativity (ERN and error positivity (Pe components of the scalp-recorded event-related potential (ERP represent cingulate-mediated functions of performance monitoring that may be modulated by mindfulness meditation. We utilized a flanker task, an experimental design, and a brief mindfulness intervention in a sample of 55 healthy non-meditators (n = 28 randomly assigned to the mindfulness group and n = 27 randomly assigned to the control group to examine autonomic nervous system functions as measured by blood pressure and indices of cognitive control as measured by response times, error rates, post-error slowing, and the ERN and Pe components of the ERP. Systolic blood pressure significantly differentiated groups following the mindfulness intervention and following the flanker task. There were non-significant differences between the mindfulness and control groups for response times, post-error slowing, and error rates on the flanker task. Amplitude and latency of the ERN did not differ between groups; however, amplitude of the Pe was significantly smaller in individuals in the mindfulness group than in the control group. Findings suggest that a brief mindfulness intervention is associated with reduced autonomic arousal and decreased amplitude of the Pe, an ERP associated with error awareness, attention, and motivational salience, but does not alter amplitude of the ERN or behavioral performance. Implications for brief mindfulness interventions and state versus trait affect theories of the ERN are discussed. Future research examining graded levels of mindfulness and tracking error awareness will clarify relationship between mindfulness and performance monitoring.

Statistical evaluation of design-error related nuclear reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, K.O.; Marchaterre, J.F.

1981-01-01

In this paper, general methodology for the statistical evaluation of design-error related accidents is proposed that can be applied to a variety of systems that evolves during the development of large-scale technologies. The evaluation aims at an estimate of the combined ''residual'' frequency of yet unknown types of accidents ''lurking'' in a certain technological system. A special categorization in incidents and accidents is introduced to define the events that should be jointly analyzed. The resulting formalism is applied to the development of U.S. nuclear power reactor technology, considering serious accidents (category 2 events) that involved, in the accident progression, a particular design inadequacy. 9 refs

Implementation of bayesian model averaging on the weather data forecasting applications utilizing open weather map

Science.gov (United States)

Rahmat, R. F.; Nasution, F. R.; Seniman; Syahputra, M. F.; Sitompul, O. S.

2018-02-01

Weather is condition of air in a certain region at a relatively short period of time, measured with various parameters such as; temperature, air preasure, wind velocity, humidity and another phenomenons in the atmosphere. In fact, extreme weather due to global warming would lead to drought, flood, hurricane and other forms of weather occasion, which directly affects social andeconomic activities. Hence, a forecasting technique is to predict weather with distinctive output, particullary mapping process based on GIS with information about current weather status in certain cordinates of each region with capability to forecast for seven days afterward. Data used in this research are retrieved in real time from the server openweathermap and BMKG. In order to obtain a low error rate and high accuracy of forecasting, the authors use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method. The result shows that the BMA method has good accuracy. Forecasting error value is calculated by mean square error shows (MSE). The error value emerges at minumum temperature rated at 0.28 and maximum temperature rated at 0.15. Meanwhile, the error value of minimum humidity rates at 0.38 and the error value of maximum humidity rates at 0.04. Afterall, the forecasting error rate of wind speed is at 0.076. The lower the forecasting error rate, the more optimized the accuracy is.

Estimating 1970-99 average annual groundwater recharge in Wisconsin using streamflow data

Science.gov (United States)

Gebert, Warren A.; Walker, John F.; Kennedy, James L.

2011-01-01

Average annual recharge in Wisconsin for the period 1970-99 was estimated using streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations and partial-record sites. Partial-record sites have discharge measurements collected during low-flow conditions. The average annual base flow of a stream divided by the drainage area is a good approximation of the recharge rate; therefore, once average annual base flow is determined recharge can be calculated. Estimates of recharge for nearly 72 percent of the surface area of the State are provided. The results illustrate substantial spatial variability of recharge across the State, ranging from less than 1 inch to more than 12 inches per year. The average basin size for partial-record sites (50 square miles) was less than the average basin size for the gaging stations (305 square miles). Including results for smaller basins reveals a spatial variability that otherwise would be smoothed out using only estimates for larger basins. An error analysis indicates that the techniques used provide base flow estimates with standard errors ranging from 5.4 to 14 percent.

Generalized Empirical Likelihood-Based Focused Information Criterion and Model Averaging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naoya Sueishi

2013-07-01

Full Text Available This paper develops model selection and averaging methods for moment restriction models. We first propose a focused information criterion based on the generalized empirical likelihood estimator. We address the issue of selecting an optimal model, rather than a correct model, for estimating a specific parameter of interest. Then, this study investigates a generalized empirical likelihood-based model averaging estimator that minimizes the asymptotic mean squared error. A simulation study suggests that our averaging estimator can be a useful alternative to existing post-selection estimators.

Individual differences in error monitoring in healthy adults: psychological symptoms and antisocial personality characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Wen-Pin; Davies, Patricia L; Gavin, William J

2010-10-01

Recent studies have investigated the relationship between psychological symptoms and personality traits and error monitoring measured by error-related negativity (ERN) and error positivity (Pe) event-related potential (ERP) components, yet there remains a paucity of studies examining the collective simultaneous effects of psychological symptoms and personality traits on error monitoring. This present study, therefore, examined whether measures of hyperactivity-impulsivity, depression, anxiety and antisocial personality characteristics could collectively account for significant interindividual variability of both ERN and Pe amplitudes, in 29 healthy adults with no known disorders, ages 18-30 years. The bivariate zero-order correlation analyses found that only the anxiety measure was significantly related to both ERN and Pe amplitudes. However, multiple regression analyses that included all four characteristic measures while controlling for number of segments in the ERP average revealed that both depression and antisocial personality characteristics were significant predictors for the ERN amplitudes whereas antisocial personality was the only significant predictor for the Pe amplitude. These findings suggest that psychological symptoms and personality traits are associated with individual variations in error monitoring in healthy adults, and future studies should consider these variables when comparing group difference in error monitoring between adults with and without disabilities. © 2010 The Authors. European Journal of Neuroscience © 2010 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Part two: Error propagation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Picard, R.R.

1989-01-01

Topics covered in this chapter include a discussion of exact results as related to nuclear materials management and accounting in nuclear facilities; propagation of error for a single measured value; propagation of error for several measured values; error propagation for materials balances; and an application of error propagation to an example of uranium hexafluoride conversion process

Relative Error Model Reduction via Time-Weighted Balanced Stochastic Singular Perturbation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tahavori, Maryamsadat; Shaker, Hamid Reza

2012-01-01

A new mixed method for relative error model reduction of linear time invariant (LTI) systems is proposed in this paper. This order reduction technique is mainly based upon time-weighted balanced stochastic model reduction method and singular perturbation model reduction technique. Compared...... by using the concept and properties of the reciprocal systems. The results are further illustrated by two practical numerical examples: a model of CD player and a model of the atmospheric storm track....

Driving error and anxiety related to iPod mp3 player use in a simulated driving experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Harvey, Ashley R; Carden, Randy L

2009-08-01

Driver distraction due to cellular phone usage has repeatedly been shown to increase the risk of vehicular accidents; however, the literature regarding the use of other personal electronic devices while driving is relatively sparse. It was hypothesized that the usage of an mp3 player would result in an increase in not only driving error while operating a driving simulator, but driver anxiety scores as well. It was also hypothesized that anxiety scores would be positively related to driving errors when using an mp3 player. 32 participants drove through a set course in a driving simulator twice, once with and once without an iPod mp3 player, with the order counterbalanced. Number of driving errors per course, such as leaving the road, impacts with stationary objects, loss of vehicular control, etc., and anxiety were significantly higher when an iPod was in use. Anxiety scores were unrelated to number of driving errors.

Quantum mean-field decoding algorithm for error-correcting codes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inoue, Jun-ichi; Saika, Yohei; Okada, Masato

2009-01-01

We numerically examine a quantum version of TAP (Thouless-Anderson-Palmer)-like mean-field algorithm for the problem of error-correcting codes. For a class of the so-called Sourlas error-correcting codes, we check the usefulness to retrieve the original bit-sequence (message) with a finite length. The decoding dynamics is derived explicitly and we evaluate the average-case performance through the bit-error rate (BER).

Self-Reported and Observed Punitive Parenting Prospectively Predicts Increased Error-Related Brain Activity in Six-Year-Old Children.

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Alexandria; Proudfit, Greg Hajcak; Bufferd, Sara J; Kujawa, Autumn J; Laptook, Rebecca S; Torpey, Dana C; Klein, Daniel N

2015-07-01

The error-related negativity (ERN) is a negative deflection in the event-related potential (ERP) occurring approximately 50 ms after error commission at fronto-central electrode sites and is thought to reflect the activation of a generic error monitoring system. Several studies have reported an increased ERN in clinically anxious children, and suggest that anxious children are more sensitive to error commission--although the mechanisms underlying this association are not clear. We have previously found that punishing errors results in a larger ERN, an effect that persists after punishment ends. It is possible that learning-related experiences that impact sensitivity to errors may lead to an increased ERN. In particular, punitive parenting might sensitize children to errors and increase their ERN. We tested this possibility in the current study by prospectively examining the relationship between parenting style during early childhood and children's ERN approximately 3 years later. Initially, 295 parents and children (approximately 3 years old) participated in a structured observational measure of parenting behavior, and parents completed a self-report measure of parenting style. At a follow-up assessment approximately 3 years later, the ERN was elicited during a Go/No-Go task, and diagnostic interviews were completed with parents to assess child psychopathology. Results suggested that both observational measures of hostile parenting and self-report measures of authoritarian parenting style uniquely predicted a larger ERN in children 3 years later. We previously reported that children in this sample with anxiety disorders were characterized by an increased ERN. A mediation analysis indicated that ERN magnitude mediated the relationship between harsh parenting and child anxiety disorder. Results suggest that parenting may shape children's error processing through environmental conditioning and thereby risk for anxiety, although future work is needed to confirm this

Self-reported and observed punitive parenting prospectively predicts increased error-related brain activity in six-year-old children

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Alexandria; Proudfit, Greg Hajcak; Bufferd, Sara J.; Kujawa, Autumn J.; Laptook, Rebecca S.; Torpey, Dana C.; Klein, Daniel N.

2017-01-01

The error-related negativity (ERN) is a negative deflection in the event-related potential (ERP) occurring approximately 50 ms after error commission at fronto-central electrode sites and is thought to reflect the activation of a generic error monitoring system. Several studies have reported an increased ERN in clinically anxious children, and suggest that anxious children are more sensitive to error commission—although the mechanisms underlying this association are not clear. We have previously found that punishing errors results in a larger ERN, an effect that persists after punishment ends. It is possible that learning-related experiences that impact sensitivity to errors may lead to an increased ERN. In particular, punitive parenting might sensitize children to errors and increase their ERN. We tested this possibility in the current study by prospectively examining the relationship between parenting style during early childhood and children’s ERN approximately three years later. Initially, 295 parents and children (approximately 3 years old) participated in a structured observational measure of parenting behavior, and parents completed a self-report measure of parenting style. At a follow-up assessment approximately three years later, the ERN was elicited during a Go/No-Go task, and diagnostic interviews were completed with parents to assess child psychopathology. Results suggested that both observational measures of hostile parenting and self-report measures of authoritarian parenting style uniquely predicted a larger ERN in children 3 years later. We previously reported that children in this sample with anxiety disorders were characterized by an increased ERN. A mediation analysis indicated that ERN magnitude mediated the relationship between harsh parenting and child anxiety disorder. Results suggest that parenting may shape children’s error processing through environmental conditioning and thereby risk for anxiety, although future work is needed to

Differences among Job Positions Related to Communication Errors at Construction Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Akiko; Ishida, Toshiro

In a previous study, we classified the communicatio n errors at construction sites as faulty intention and message pattern, inadequate channel pattern, and faulty comprehension pattern. This study seeks to evaluate the degree of risk of communication errors and to investigate differences among people in various job positions in perception of communication error risk . Questionnaires based on the previous study were a dministered to construction workers (n=811; 149 adminis trators, 208 foremen and 454 workers). Administrators evaluated all patterns of communication error risk equally. However, foremen and workers evaluated communication error risk differently in each pattern. The common contributing factors to all patterns wer e inadequate arrangements before work and inadequate confirmation. Some factors were common among patterns but other factors were particular to a specific pattern. To help prevent future accidents at construction sites, administrators should understand how people in various job positions perceive communication errors and propose human factors measures to prevent such errors.

Bias Errors due to Leakage Effects When Estimating Frequency Response Functions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Josefsson

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Frequency response functions are often utilized to characterize a system's dynamic response. For a wide range of engineering applications, it is desirable to determine frequency response functions for a system under stochastic excitation. In practice, the measurement data is contaminated by noise and some form of averaging is needed in order to obtain a consistent estimator. With Welch's method, the discrete Fourier transform is used and the data is segmented into smaller blocks so that averaging can be performed when estimating the spectrum. However, this segmentation introduces leakage effects. As a result, the estimated frequency response function suffers from both systematic (bias and random errors due to leakage. In this paper the bias error in the H1 and H2-estimate is studied and a new method is proposed to derive an approximate expression for the relative bias error at the resonance frequency with different window functions. The method is based on using a sum of real exponentials to describe the window's deterministic autocorrelation function. Simple expressions are derived for a rectangular window and a Hanning window. The theoretical expressions are verified with numerical simulations and a very good agreement is found between the results from the proposed bias expressions and the empirical results.

Human errors in operation - what to do with them?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michalek, J.

2009-01-01

'It is human to make errors!' This saying of our predecessors is still current and will continue to be valid also in the future, until human is a human. Errors cannot be completely eliminated from human activities. In average human makes two simple errors in one hour. For example, how many typing errors do we make while typing on the computer keyboard? How many times we make mistakes in writing the date in the first days of a new year? These errors have no major consequences, however, in certain situations errors of humans are very unpleasant and may be also very costly, they may even endanger human lives. (author)

Estimation of time averages from irregularly spaced observations - With application to coastal zone color scanner estimates of chlorophyll concentration

Science.gov (United States)

Chelton, Dudley B.; Schlax, Michael G.

1991-01-01

The sampling error of an arbitrary linear estimate of a time-averaged quantity constructed from a time series of irregularly spaced observations at a fixed located is quantified through a formalism. The method is applied to satellite observations of chlorophyll from the coastal zone color scanner. The two specific linear estimates under consideration are the composite average formed from the simple average of all observations within the averaging period and the optimal estimate formed by minimizing the mean squared error of the temporal average based on all the observations in the time series. The resulting suboptimal estimates are shown to be more accurate than composite averages. Suboptimal estimates are also found to be nearly as accurate as optimal estimates using the correct signal and measurement error variances and correlation functions for realistic ranges of these parameters, which makes it a viable practical alternative to the composite average method generally employed at present.

Refractive errors progression among pupils in Hetian Road primary school of Shanghai: 1-year followed-up

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Hui Shi

2013-12-01

Full Text Available AIM:To investigate the progression of refractive errors of pupils in Hetian Road primary school of Shanghai Zhabei community and analyze the relationship between refractive errors progression and relative factors. METHODS:All the 6-12 years old in-school pupils in Hetian Road primary school of Shanghai Zhabei community were invited in the study. The participates were examined first-visit in May 2011 and second-visit in May 2012. All the 303 pupils(606 eyeswere investigated the age, height(H, weight(W, uncorrected visual acuity(UCVA, diopter of spherical(DS, diopter of cylinder(DC, spherical equivalent(SE, axial length(AL, and corneal curvature(K. The progression of refractive condition was described and the relevant factors were analyzed.RESULTS:Among 606 eyes, the progression of average SE was -0.45±0.60D and the progression of average AL was 0.32±0.25mm. The progression of SE diopter was positively correlated with the progression of AL(r=0.409, PP=0.004. The youngest pupils with 6-8 years old, had the fastest progression of AL(0.39±0.24mm, PP>0.05. The incidence of poor sight(UCVACONCLUSION:Myopia is the main progression of refractive error in the pupils of Hetian Road primary school in Shanghai Zhabei community. AL and growth development is closely related to the progression of refractive errors.

Comparative Study of Communication Error between Conventional and Digital MCR Operators in NPPs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Seung Geun; Seong, Poong Hyun [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

In this regard, the appropriate communication is directly related to the efficient and safe system operation, and inappropriate communication is one of the main causes of the accidents in various industries since inappropriate communications can cause a lack of necessary information exchange between operators and lead to serious consequences in large process systems such as nuclear power plants. According to the study conducted by Y. Hirotsu in 2001, about 25 percents of human error caused incidents in NPPs were related to communication issues. Also, other studies were reported that 85 percents of human error caused incidents in aviation industry and 92 percents in railway industry were related to communication problems. Accordingly, the importance of the efforts for reducing inappropriate communications has been emphasized in order to enhance the safety of pre-described systems. As a result, the average ratio of inappropriate communication in digital MCRs was slightly higher than that in conventional MCRs when the average ratio of no communication in digital MCRs was much smaller than that in conventional MCRs. Regarding the average ratio of inappropriate communication, it can be inferred that operators are still more familiar to the conventional MCRs than digital MCRs. More case studies are required for more delicate comparison since there were only three examined cases for digital MCRs. However, similar result is expected because there are no differences in communication method, although there are many differences in the way of procedure proceeding.

Medication error detection in two major teaching hospitals: What are the types of errors?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fatemeh Saghafi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Increasing number of reports on medication errors and relevant subsequent damages, especially in medical centers has become a growing concern for patient safety in recent decades. Patient safety and in particular, medication safety is a major concern and challenge for health care professionals around the world. Our prospective study was designed to detect prescribing, transcribing, dispensing, and administering medication errors in two major university hospitals. Materials and Methods: After choosing 20 similar hospital wards in two large teaching hospitals in the city of Isfahan, Iran, the sequence was randomly selected. Diagrams for drug distribution were drawn by the help of pharmacy directors. Direct observation technique was chosen as the method for detecting the errors. A total of 50 doses were studied in each ward to detect prescribing, transcribing and administering errors in each ward. The dispensing error was studied on 1000 doses dispensed in each hospital pharmacy. Results: A total of 8162 number of doses of medications were studied during the four stages, of which 8000 were complete data to be analyzed. 73% of prescribing orders were incomplete and did not have all six parameters (name, dosage form, dose and measuring unit, administration route, and intervals of administration. We found 15% transcribing errors. One-third of administration of medications on average was erroneous in both hospitals. Dispensing errors ranged between 1.4% and 2.2%. Conclusion: Although prescribing and administrating compromise most of the medication errors, improvements are needed in all four stages with regard to medication errors. Clear guidelines must be written and executed in both hospitals to reduce the incidence of medication errors.

ERF/ERFC, Calculation of Error Function, Complementary Error Function, Probability Integrals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vogel, J.E.

1983-01-01

1 - Description of problem or function: ERF and ERFC are used to compute values of the error function and complementary error function for any real number. They may be used to compute other related functions such as the normal probability integrals. 4. Method of solution: The error function and complementary error function are approximated by rational functions. Three such rational approximations are used depending on whether - x .GE.4.0. In the first region the error function is computed directly and the complementary error function is computed via the identity erfc(x)=1.0-erf(x). In the other two regions the complementary error function is computed directly and the error function is computed from the identity erf(x)=1.0-erfc(x). The error function and complementary error function are real-valued functions of any real argument. The range of the error function is (-1,1). The range of the complementary error function is (0,2). 5. Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The user is cautioned against using ERF to compute the complementary error function by using the identity erfc(x)=1.0-erf(x). This subtraction may cause partial or total loss of significance for certain values of x

Measurements of stem diameter: implications for individual- and stand-level errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, Keryn I; Larmour, John S; Roxburgh, Stephen H; England, Jacqueline R; Davies, Micah J; Luck, Hamish D

2017-08-01

Stem diameter is one of the most common measurements made to assess the growth of woody vegetation, and the commercial and environmental benefits that it provides (e.g. wood or biomass products, carbon sequestration, landscape remediation). Yet inconsistency in its measurement is a continuing source of error in estimates of stand-scale measures such as basal area, biomass, and volume. Here we assessed errors in stem diameter measurement through repeated measurements of individual trees and shrubs of varying size and form (i.e. single- and multi-stemmed) across a range of contrasting stands, from complex mixed-species plantings to commercial single-species plantations. We compared a standard diameter tape with a Stepped Diameter Gauge (SDG) for time efficiency and measurement error. Measurement errors in diameter were slightly (but significantly) influenced by size and form of the tree or shrub, and stem height at which the measurement was made. Compared to standard tape measurement, the mean systematic error with SDG measurement was only -0.17 cm, but varied between -0.10 and -0.52 cm. Similarly, random error was relatively large, with standard deviations (and percentage coefficients of variation) averaging only 0.36 cm (and 3.8%), but varying between 0.14 and 0.61 cm (and 1.9 and 7.1%). However, at the stand scale, sampling errors (i.e. how well individual trees or shrubs selected for measurement of diameter represented the true stand population in terms of the average and distribution of diameter) generally had at least a tenfold greater influence on random errors in basal area estimates than errors in diameter measurements. This supports the use of diameter measurement tools that have high efficiency, such as the SDG. Use of the SDG almost halved the time required for measurements compared to the diameter tape. Based on these findings, recommendations include the following: (i) use of a tape to maximise accuracy when developing allometric models, or when

Scaling prediction errors to reward variability benefits error-driven learning in humans.

Science.gov (United States)

Diederen, Kelly M J; Schultz, Wolfram

2015-09-01

Effective error-driven learning requires individuals to adapt learning to environmental reward variability. The adaptive mechanism may involve decays in learning rate across subsequent trials, as shown previously, and rescaling of reward prediction errors. The present study investigated the influence of prediction error scaling and, in particular, the consequences for learning performance. Participants explicitly predicted reward magnitudes that were drawn from different probability distributions with specific standard deviations. By fitting the data with reinforcement learning models, we found scaling of prediction errors, in addition to the learning rate decay shown previously. Importantly, the prediction error scaling was closely related to learning performance, defined as accuracy in predicting the mean of reward distributions, across individual participants. In addition, participants who scaled prediction errors relative to standard deviation also presented with more similar performance for different standard deviations, indicating that increases in standard deviation did not substantially decrease "adapters'" accuracy in predicting the means of reward distributions. However, exaggerated scaling beyond the standard deviation resulted in impaired performance. Thus efficient adaptation makes learning more robust to changing variability. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Robust Data-Driven Inference for Density-Weighted Average Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cattaneo, Matias D.; Crump, Richard K.; Jansson, Michael

This paper presents a new data-driven bandwidth selector compatible with the small bandwidth asymptotics developed in Cattaneo, Crump, and Jansson (2009) for density- weighted average derivatives. The new bandwidth selector is of the plug-in variety, and is obtained based on a mean squared error...

Voice recognition versus transcriptionist: error rated and productivity in MRI reporting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strahan, Rodney H.; Schneider-Kolsky, Michal E.

2010-01-01

Full text: Purpose: Despite the frequent introduction of voice recognition (VR) into radiology departments, little evidence still exists about its impact on workflow, error rates and costs. We designed a study to compare typographical errors, turnaround times (TAT) from reported to verified and productivity for VR-generated reports versus transcriptionist-generated reports in MRI. Methods: Fifty MRI reports generated by VR and 50 finalised MRI reports generated by the transcriptionist, of two radiologists, were sampled retrospectively. Two hundred reports were scrutinised for typographical errors and the average TAT from dictated to final approval. To assess productivity, the average MRI reports per hour for one of the radiologists was calculated using data from extra weekend reporting sessions. Results: Forty-two % and 30% of the finalised VR reports for each of the radiologists investigated contained errors. Only 6% and 8% of the transcriptionist-generated reports contained errors. The average TAT for VR was 0 h, and for the transcriptionist reports TAT was 89 and 38.9 h. Productivity was calculated at 8.6 MRI reports per hour using VR and 13.3 MRI reports using the transcriptionist, representing a 55% increase in productivity. Conclusion: Our results demonstrate that VR is not an effective method of generating reports for MRI. Ideally, we would have the report error rate and productivity of a transcriptionist and the TAT of VR.

Did I Do That? Expectancy Effects of Brain Stimulation on Error-related Negativity and Sense of Agency.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoogeveen, Suzanne; Schjoedt, Uffe; van Elk, Michiel

2018-06-19

This study examines the effects of expected transcranial stimulation on the error(-related) negativity (Ne or ERN) and the sense of agency in participants who perform a cognitive control task. Placebo transcranial direct current stimulation was used to elicit expectations of transcranially induced cognitive improvement or impairment. The improvement/impairment manipulation affected both the Ne/ERN and the sense of agency (i.e., whether participants attributed errors to oneself or the brain stimulation device): Expected improvement increased the ERN in response to errors compared with both impairment and control conditions. Expected impairment made participants falsely attribute errors to the transcranial stimulation. This decrease in sense of agency was correlated with a reduced ERN amplitude. These results show that expectations about transcranial stimulation impact users' neural response to self-generated errors and the attribution of responsibility-especially when actions lead to negative outcomes. We discuss our findings in relation to predictive processing theory according to which the effect of prior expectations on the ERN reflects the brain's attempt to generate predictive models of incoming information. By demonstrating that induced expectations about transcranial stimulation can have effects at a neural level, that is, beyond mere demand characteristics, our findings highlight the potential for placebo brain stimulation as a promising tool for research.

Surprised at all the entropy: hippocampal, caudate and midbrain contributions to learning from prediction errors.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne-Marike Schiffer

Full Text Available Influential concepts in neuroscientific research cast the brain a predictive machine that revises its predictions when they are violated by sensory input. This relates to the predictive coding account of perception, but also to learning. Learning from prediction errors has been suggested for take place in the hippocampal memory system as well as in the basal ganglia. The present fMRI study used an action-observation paradigm to investigate the contributions of the hippocampus, caudate nucleus and midbrain dopaminergic system to different types of learning: learning in the absence of prediction errors, learning from prediction errors, and responding to the accumulation of prediction errors in unpredictable stimulus configurations. We conducted analyses of the regions of interests' BOLD response towards these different types of learning, implementing a bootstrapping procedure to correct for false positives. We found both, caudate nucleus and the hippocampus to be activated by perceptual prediction errors. The hippocampal responses seemed to relate to the associative mismatch between a stored representation and current sensory input. Moreover, its response was significantly influenced by the average information, or Shannon entropy of the stimulus material. In accordance with earlier results, the habenula was activated by perceptual prediction errors. Lastly, we found that the substantia nigra was activated by the novelty of sensory input. In sum, we established that the midbrain dopaminergic system, the hippocampus, and the caudate nucleus were to different degrees significantly involved in the three different types of learning: acquisition of new information, learning from prediction errors and responding to unpredictable stimulus developments. We relate learning from perceptual prediction errors to the concept of predictive coding and related information theoretic accounts.

Surprised at all the entropy: hippocampal, caudate and midbrain contributions to learning from prediction errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Schiffer, Anne-Marike; Ahlheim, Christiane; Wurm, Moritz F; Schubotz, Ricarda I

2012-01-01

Influential concepts in neuroscientific research cast the brain a predictive machine that revises its predictions when they are violated by sensory input. This relates to the predictive coding account of perception, but also to learning. Learning from prediction errors has been suggested for take place in the hippocampal memory system as well as in the basal ganglia. The present fMRI study used an action-observation paradigm to investigate the contributions of the hippocampus, caudate nucleus and midbrain dopaminergic system to different types of learning: learning in the absence of prediction errors, learning from prediction errors, and responding to the accumulation of prediction errors in unpredictable stimulus configurations. We conducted analyses of the regions of interests' BOLD response towards these different types of learning, implementing a bootstrapping procedure to correct for false positives. We found both, caudate nucleus and the hippocampus to be activated by perceptual prediction errors. The hippocampal responses seemed to relate to the associative mismatch between a stored representation and current sensory input. Moreover, its response was significantly influenced by the average information, or Shannon entropy of the stimulus material. In accordance with earlier results, the habenula was activated by perceptual prediction errors. Lastly, we found that the substantia nigra was activated by the novelty of sensory input. In sum, we established that the midbrain dopaminergic system, the hippocampus, and the caudate nucleus were to different degrees significantly involved in the three different types of learning: acquisition of new information, learning from prediction errors and responding to unpredictable stimulus developments. We relate learning from perceptual prediction errors to the concept of predictive coding and related information theoretic accounts.

Automated contouring error detection based on supervised geometric attribute distribution models for radiation therapy: A general strategy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Hsin-Chen; Tan, Jun; Dolly, Steven; Kavanaugh, James; Harold Li, H.; Altman, Michael; Gay, Hiram; Thorstad, Wade L.; Mutic, Sasa; Li, Hua, E-mail: huli@radonc.wustl.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri 63110 (United States); Anastasio, Mark A. [Department of Biomedical Engineering, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri 63110 (United States); Low, Daniel A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095 (United States)

2015-02-15

were separately employed to test the effectiveness of the proposed contouring error detection strategy. Results: An evaluation tool was implemented to illustrate how the proposed strategy automatically detects the radiation therapy contouring errors for a given patient and provides 3D graphical visualization of error detection results as well. The contouring error detection results were achieved with an average sensitivity of 0.954/0.906 and an average specificity of 0.901/0.909 on the centroid/volume related contouring errors of all the tested samples. As for the detection results on structural shape related contouring errors, an average sensitivity of 0.816 and an average specificity of 0.94 on all the tested samples were obtained. The promising results indicated the feasibility of the proposed strategy for the detection of contouring errors with low false detection rate. Conclusions: The proposed strategy can reliably identify contouring errors based upon inter- and intrastructural constraints derived from clinically approved contours. It holds great potential for improving the radiation therapy workflow. ROC and box plot analyses allow for analytically tuning of the system parameters to satisfy clinical requirements. Future work will focus on the improvement of strategy reliability by utilizing more training sets and additional geometric attribute constraints.

Automated contouring error detection based on supervised geometric attribute distribution models for radiation therapy: A general strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Hsin-Chen; Tan, Jun; Dolly, Steven; Kavanaugh, James; Harold Li, H.; Altman, Michael; Gay, Hiram; Thorstad, Wade L.; Mutic, Sasa; Li, Hua; Anastasio, Mark A.; Low, Daniel A.

2015-01-01

were separately employed to test the effectiveness of the proposed contouring error detection strategy. Results: An evaluation tool was implemented to illustrate how the proposed strategy automatically detects the radiation therapy contouring errors for a given patient and provides 3D graphical visualization of error detection results as well. The contouring error detection results were achieved with an average sensitivity of 0.954/0.906 and an average specificity of 0.901/0.909 on the centroid/volume related contouring errors of all the tested samples. As for the detection results on structural shape related contouring errors, an average sensitivity of 0.816 and an average specificity of 0.94 on all the tested samples were obtained. The promising results indicated the feasibility of the proposed strategy for the detection of contouring errors with low false detection rate. Conclusions: The proposed strategy can reliably identify contouring errors based upon inter- and intrastructural constraints derived from clinically approved contours. It holds great potential for improving the radiation therapy workflow. ROC and box plot analyses allow for analytically tuning of the system parameters to satisfy clinical requirements. Future work will focus on the improvement of strategy reliability by utilizing more training sets and additional geometric attribute constraints

An error-related negativity potential investigation of response monitoring function in individuals with Internet addiction disorder

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenhe eZhou

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Internet addiction disorder (IAD is an impulse disorder or at least related to impulse control disorder. Deficits in executive functioning, including response monitoring, have been proposed as a hallmark feature of impulse control disorders. The error-related negativity (ERN reflects individual’s ability to monitor behavior. Since IAD belongs to a compulsive-impulsive spectrum disorder, theoretically, it should present response monitoring functional deficit characteristics of some disorders, such as substance dependence, ADHD or alcohol abuse, testing with an Erikson flanker task. Up to now, no studies on response monitoring functional deficit in IAD were reported. The purpose of the present study was to examine whether IAD displays response monitoring functional deficit characteristics in a modified Erikson flanker task.23 subjects were recruited as IAD group. 23 matched age, gender and education healthy persons were recruited as control group. All participants completed the modified Erikson flanker task while measured with event-related potentials (ERPs. IAD group made more total error rates than did controls (P < 0.01; Reactive times for total error responses in IAD group were shorter than did controls (P < 0.01. The mean ERN amplitudes of total error response conditions at frontal electrode sites and at central electrode sites of IAD group were reduced compared with control group (all P < 0.01. These results revealed that IAD displays response monitoring functional deficit characteristics and shares ERN characteristics of compulsive-impulsive spectrum disorder.

Bounding Averages Rigorously Using Semidefinite Programming: Mean Moments of the Lorenz System

Science.gov (United States)

Goluskin, David

2018-04-01

We describe methods for proving bounds on infinite-time averages in differential dynamical systems. The methods rely on the construction of nonnegative polynomials with certain properties, similarly to the way nonlinear stability can be proved using Lyapunov functions. Nonnegativity is enforced by requiring the polynomials to be sums of squares, a condition which is then formulated as a semidefinite program (SDP) that can be solved computationally. Although such computations are subject to numerical error, we demonstrate two ways to obtain rigorous results: using interval arithmetic to control the error of an approximate SDP solution, and finding exact analytical solutions to relatively small SDPs. Previous formulations are extended to allow for bounds depending analytically on parametric variables. These methods are illustrated using the Lorenz equations, a system with three state variables ( x, y, z) and three parameters (β ,σ ,r). Bounds are reported for infinite-time averages of all eighteen moments x^ly^mz^n up to quartic degree that are symmetric under (x,y)\\mapsto (-x,-y). These bounds apply to all solutions regardless of stability, including chaotic trajectories, periodic orbits, and equilibrium points. The analytical approach yields two novel bounds that are sharp: the mean of z^3 can be no larger than its value of (r-1)^3 at the nonzero equilibria, and the mean of xy^3 must be nonnegative. The interval arithmetic approach is applied at the standard chaotic parameters to bound eleven average moments that all appear to be maximized on the shortest periodic orbit. Our best upper bound on each such average exceeds its value on the maximizing orbit by less than 1%. Many bounds reported here are much tighter than would be possible without computer assistance.

Imagery of Errors in Typing

Science.gov (United States)

Rieger, Martina; Martinez, Fanny; Wenke, Dorit

2011-01-01

Using a typing task we investigated whether insufficient imagination of errors and error corrections is related to duration differences between execution and imagination. In Experiment 1 spontaneous error imagination was investigated, whereas in Experiment 2 participants were specifically instructed to imagine errors. Further, in Experiment 2 we…

Deblurring of class-averaged images in single-particle electron microscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Wooram; Chirikjian, Gregory S; Madden, Dean R; Rockmore, Daniel N

2010-01-01

This paper proposes a method for the deblurring of class-averaged images in single-particle electron microscopy (EM). Since EM images of biological samples are very noisy, the images which are nominally identical projection images are often grouped, aligned and averaged in order to cancel or reduce the background noise. However, the noise in the individual EM images generates errors in the alignment process, which creates an inherent limit on the accuracy of the resulting class averages. This inaccurate class average due to the alignment errors can be viewed as the result of a convolution of an underlying clear image with a blurring function. In this work, we develop a deconvolution method that gives an estimate for the underlying clear image from a blurred class-averaged image using precomputed statistics of misalignment. Since this convolution is over the group of rigid-body motions of the plane, SE(2), we use the Fourier transform for SE(2) in order to convert the convolution into a matrix multiplication in the corresponding Fourier space. For practical implementation we use a Hermite-function-based image modeling technique, because Hermite expansions enable lossless Cartesian-polar coordinate conversion using the Laguerre–Fourier expansions, and Hermite expansion and Laguerre–Fourier expansion retain their structures under the Fourier transform. Based on these mathematical properties, we can obtain the deconvolution of the blurred class average using simple matrix multiplication. Tests of the proposed deconvolution method using synthetic and experimental EM images confirm the performance of our method

Soft error evaluation in SRAM using α sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He Chaohui; Chu Jun; Ren Xueming; Xia Chunmei; Yang Xiupei; Zhang Weiwei; Wang Hongquan; Xiao Jiangbo; Li Xiaolin

2006-01-01

Soft errors in memories influence directly the reliability of products. To compare the ability of three different memories against soft errors by experiments of alpha particles irradiation, the numbers of soft errors are measured for three different SRAMs and the cross sections of single event upset (SEU) and failures in time (FIT) are calculated. According to the cross sections of SEU, the ability of A166M against soft errors is the best and then B166M, the last B200M. The average FIT of B166M is smaller than that of B200M, and that of A166M is the biggest among them. (authors)

ERROR BOUNDS FOR SURFACE AREA ESTIMATORS BASED ON CROFTON’S FORMULA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Markus Kiderlen

2011-05-01

Full Text Available According to Crofton's formula, the surface area S(A of a sufficiently regular compact set A in Rd is proportional to the mean of all total projections pA (u on a linear hyperplane with normal u, uniformly averaged over all unit vectors u. In applications, pA (u is only measured in k directions and the mean is approximated by a finite weighted sum bS(A of the total projections in these directions. The choice of the weights depends on the selected quadrature rule. We define an associated zonotope Z (depending only on the projection directions and the quadrature rule, and show that the relative error bS (A/S (A is bounded from below by the inradius of Z and from above by the circumradius of Z. Applying a strengthened isoperimetric inequality due to Bonnesen, we show that the rectangular quadrature rule does not give the best possible error bounds for d =2. In addition, we derive asymptotic behavior of the error (with increasing k in the planar case. The paper concludes with applications to surface area estimation in design-based digital stereology where we show that the weights due to Bonnesen's inequality are better than the usual weights based on the rectangular rule and almost optimal in the sense that the relative error of the surface area estimator is very close to the minimal error.

An individual differences approach to multiple-target visual search errors: How search errors relate to different characteristics of attention.

Science.gov (United States)

Adamo, Stephen H; Cain, Matthew S; Mitroff, Stephen R

2017-12-01

A persistent problem in visual search is that searchers are more likely to miss a target if they have already found another in the same display. This phenomenon, the Subsequent Search Miss (SSM) effect, has remained despite being a known issue for decades. Increasingly, evidence supports a resource depletion account of SSM errors-a previously detected target consumes attentional resources leaving fewer resources available for the processing of a second target. However, "attention" is broadly defined and is composed of many different characteristics, leaving considerable uncertainty about how attention affects second-target detection. The goal of the current study was to identify which attentional characteristics (i.e., selection, limited capacity, modulation, and vigilance) related to second-target misses. The current study compared second-target misses to an attentional blink task and a vigilance task, which both have established measures that were used to operationally define each of four attentional characteristics. Second-target misses in the multiple-target search were correlated with (1) a measure of the time it took for the second target to recovery from the blink in the attentional blink task (i.e., modulation), and (2) target sensitivity (d') in the vigilance task (i.e., vigilance). Participants with longer recovery and poorer vigilance had more second-target misses in the multiple-target visual search task. The results add further support to a resource depletion account of SSM errors and highlight that worse modulation and poor vigilance reflect a deficit in attentional resources that can account for SSM errors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sampling Error in Relation to Cyst Nematode Population Density Estimation in Small Field Plots.

Science.gov (United States)

Župunski, Vesna; Jevtić, Radivoje; Jokić, Vesna Spasić; Župunski, Ljubica; Lalošević, Mirjana; Ćirić, Mihajlo; Ćurčić, Živko

2017-06-01

Cyst nematodes are serious plant-parasitic pests which could cause severe yield losses and extensive damage. Since there is still very little information about error of population density estimation in small field plots, this study contributes to the broad issue of population density assessment. It was shown that there was no significant difference between cyst counts of five or seven bulk samples taken per each 1-m 2 plot, if average cyst count per examined plot exceeds 75 cysts per 100 g of soil. Goodness of fit of data to probability distribution tested with χ 2 test confirmed a negative binomial distribution of cyst counts for 21 out of 23 plots. The recommended measure of sampling precision of 17% expressed through coefficient of variation ( cv ) was achieved if the plots of 1 m 2 contaminated with more than 90 cysts per 100 g of soil were sampled with 10-core bulk samples taken in five repetitions. If plots were contaminated with less than 75 cysts per 100 g of soil, 10-core bulk samples taken in seven repetitions gave cv higher than 23%. This study indicates that more attention should be paid on estimation of sampling error in experimental field plots to ensure more reliable estimation of population density of cyst nematodes.

Electrophysiological Endophenotypes and the Error-Related Negativity (ERN) in Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Family Study

Science.gov (United States)

Clawson, Ann; South, Mikle; Baldwin, Scott A.; Larson, Michael J.

2017-01-01

We examined the error-related negativity (ERN) as an endophenotype of ASD by comparing the ERN in families of ASD probands to control families. We hypothesized that ASD probands and families would display reduced-amplitude ERN relative to controls. Participants included 148 individuals within 39 families consisting of a mother, father, sibling,…

Propagation of Radiosonde Pressure Sensor Errors to Ozonesonde Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Stauffer, R. M.; Morris, G.A.; Thompson, A. M.; Joseph, E.; Coetzee, G. J. R.; Nalli, N. R.

2014-01-01

Several previous studies highlight pressure (or equivalently, pressure altitude) discrepancies between the radiosonde pressure sensor and that derived from a GPS flown with the radiosonde. The offsets vary during the ascent both in absolute and percent pressure differences. To investigate this problem further, a total of 731 radiosonde-ozonesonde launches from the Southern Hemisphere subtropics to Northern mid-latitudes are considered, with launches between 2005 - 2013 from both longer-term and campaign-based intensive stations. Five series of radiosondes from two manufacturers (International Met Systems: iMet, iMet-P, iMet-S, and Vaisala: RS80-15N and RS92-SGP) are analyzed to determine the magnitude of the pressure offset. Additionally, electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) ozonesondes from three manufacturers (Science Pump Corporation; SPC and ENSCI-Droplet Measurement Technologies; DMT) are analyzed to quantify the effects these offsets have on the calculation of ECC ozone (O3) mixing ratio profiles (O3MR) from the ozonesonde-measured partial pressure. Approximately half of all offsets are 0.6 hPa in the free troposphere, with nearly a third 1.0 hPa at 26 km, where the 1.0 hPa error represents 5 persent of the total atmospheric pressure. Pressure offsets have negligible effects on O3MR below 20 km (96 percent of launches lie within 5 percent O3MR error at 20 km). Ozone mixing ratio errors above 10 hPa (30 km), can approach greater than 10 percent ( 25 percent of launches that reach 30 km exceed this threshold). These errors cause disagreement between the integrated ozonesonde-only column O3 from the GPS and radiosonde pressure profile by an average of +6.5 DU. Comparisons of total column O3 between the GPS and radiosonde pressure profiles yield average differences of +1.1 DU when the O3 is integrated to burst with addition of the McPeters and Labow (2012) above-burst O3 column climatology. Total column differences are reduced to an average of -0.5 DU when

Multi-Repeated Projection Lithography for High-Precision Linear Scale Based on Average Homogenization Effect

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dongxu Ren

2016-04-01

Full Text Available A multi-repeated photolithography method for manufacturing an incremental linear scale using projection lithography is presented. The method is based on the average homogenization effect that periodically superposes the light intensity of different locations of pitches in the mask to make a consistent energy distribution at a specific wavelength, from which the accuracy of a linear scale can be improved precisely using the average pitch with different step distances. The method’s theoretical error is within 0.01 µm for a periodic mask with a 2-µm sine-wave error. The intensity error models in the focal plane include the rectangular grating error on the mask, static positioning error, and lithography lens focal plane alignment error, which affect pitch uniformity less than in the common linear scale projection lithography splicing process. It was analyzed and confirmed that increasing the repeat exposure number of a single stripe could improve accuracy, as could adjusting the exposure spacing to achieve a set proportion of black and white stripes. According to the experimental results, the effectiveness of the multi-repeated photolithography method is confirmed to easily realize a pitch accuracy of 43 nm in any 10 locations of 1 m, and the whole length accuracy of the linear scale is less than 1 µm/m.

Extended averaging phase-shift schemes for Fizeau interferometry on high-numerical-aperture spherical surfaces

Science.gov (United States)

Burke, Jan

2010-08-01

Phase-shifting Fizeau interferometry on spherical surfaces is impaired by phase-shift errors increasing with the numerical aperture, unless a custom optical set-up or wavelength shifting is used. This poses a problem especially for larger numerical apertures, and requires good error tolerance of the phase-shift method used; but it also constitutes a useful testing facility for phase-shift formulae, because a vast range of phase-shift intervals can be tested in a single measurement. In this paper I show how the "characteristic polynomials" method can be used to generate a phase-shifting method for the actual numerical aperture, and analyse residual cyclical phase errors by comparing a phase map from an interferogram with a few fringes to a phase mpa from a nulled fringe. Unrelated to the phase-shift miscalibration, thirdharmonic error fringes are found. These can be dealt with by changing the nominal phase shift from 90°/step to 60°/step and re-tailoring the evaluation formula for third-harmonic rejection. The residual error has the same frequency as the phase-shift signal itself, and can be removed by averaging measurements. Some interesting features of the characteristic polynomials for the averaged formulae emerge, which also shed some light on the mechanism that generates cyclical phase errors.

Enhanced error related negativity amplitude in medication-naïve, comorbidity-free obsessive compulsive disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Nawani, Hema; Narayanaswamy, Janardhanan C; Basavaraju, Shrinivasa; Bose, Anushree; Mahavir Agarwal, Sri; Venkatasubramanian, Ganesan; Janardhan Reddy, Y C

2018-04-01

Error monitoring and response inhibition is a key cognitive deficit in obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Frontal midline regions such as the cingulate cortex and pre-supplementary motor area are considered critical brain substrates of this deficit. Electrophysiological equivalent of the above dysfunction is a fronto-central event related potential (ERP) which occurs after an error called the error related negativity (ERN). In this study, we sought to compare the ERN parameters between medication-naïve, comorbidity-free subjects with OCD and healthy controls (HC). Age, sex and handedness matched subjects with medication-naïve, comorbidity-free OCD (N = 16) and Healthy Controls (N = 17) performed a modified version of the flanker task while EEG was acquired for ERN. EEG signals were recorded from the electrodes FCz and Cz. Clinical severity of OCD was assessed using the Yale Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale. The subjects with OCD had significantly greater ERN amplitude at Cz and FCz. There were no significant correlations between ERN measures and illness severity measures. Overactive performance monitoring as evidenced by enhanced ERN amplitude could be considered as a biomarker for OCD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lowest-order average effect of turbulence on atmospheric profiles derived from radio occultation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eshleman, V.R.; Haugstad, B.S.

1977-01-01

Turbulence in planetary atmospheres and ionospheres causes changes in angles of refraction of radio waves used in occultation experiments. Atmospheric temperature and pressure profiles, and ionospheric electron concentration profiles, derived from radio occultation measurements of Doppler frequency contain errors due to such angular offsets. The lowest-order average errors are derived from a geometrical-optics treatment of the radio-wave phase advance caused by the addition of uniform turbulence to an initially homogeneous medium. It is concluded that the average profile errors are small and that precise Doppler frequency measurements at two or more wavelengths could be used to help determine characteristics of the turbulence, as well as accuracy limits and possible correction terms for the profiles. However, a more detailed study of both frequency and intensity characteristics in radio and optical occultation measurements of turbulent planetary atmospheres and ionospheres is required to realize the full potential of such measurements

Voice recognition versus transcriptionist: error rates and productivity in MRI reporting.

Science.gov (United States)

Strahan, Rodney H; Schneider-Kolsky, Michal E

2010-10-01

Despite the frequent introduction of voice recognition (VR) into radiology departments, little evidence still exists about its impact on workflow, error rates and costs. We designed a study to compare typographical errors, turnaround times (TAT) from reported to verified and productivity for VR-generated reports versus transcriptionist-generated reports in MRI. Fifty MRI reports generated by VR and 50 finalized MRI reports generated by the transcriptionist, of two radiologists, were sampled retrospectively. Two hundred reports were scrutinised for typographical errors and the average TAT from dictated to final approval. To assess productivity, the average MRI reports per hour for one of the radiologists was calculated using data from extra weekend reporting sessions. Forty-two % and 30% of the finalized VR reports for each of the radiologists investigated contained errors. Only 6% and 8% of the transcriptionist-generated reports contained errors. The average TAT for VR was 0 h, and for the transcriptionist reports TAT was 89 and 38.9 h. Productivity was calculated at 8.6 MRI reports per hour using VR and 13.3 MRI reports using the transcriptionist, representing a 55% increase in productivity. Our results demonstrate that VR is not an effective method of generating reports for MRI. Ideally, we would have the report error rate and productivity of a transcriptionist and the TAT of VR. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Medical Imaging and Radiation Oncology © 2010 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists.

Error modeling for surrogates of dynamical systems using machine learning

Science.gov (United States)

Trehan, Sumeet; Carlberg, Kevin T.; Durlofsky, Louis J.

2017-12-01

A machine-learning-based framework for modeling the error introduced by surrogate models of parameterized dynamical systems is proposed. The framework entails the use of high-dimensional regression techniques (e.g., random forests, LASSO) to map a large set of inexpensively computed `error indicators' (i.e., features) produced by the surrogate model at a given time instance to a prediction of the surrogate-model error in a quantity of interest (QoI). This eliminates the need for the user to hand-select a small number of informative features. The methodology requires a training set of parameter instances at which the time-dependent surrogate-model error is computed by simulating both the high-fidelity and surrogate models. Using these training data, the method first determines regression-model locality (via classification or clustering), and subsequently constructs a `local' regression model to predict the time-instantaneous error within each identified region of feature space. We consider two uses for the resulting error model: (1) as a correction to the surrogate-model QoI prediction at each time instance, and (2) as a way to statistically model arbitrary functions of the time-dependent surrogate-model error (e.g., time-integrated errors). We apply the proposed framework to model errors in reduced-order models of nonlinear oil--water subsurface flow simulations. The reduced-order models used in this work entail application of trajectory piecewise linearization with proper orthogonal decomposition. When the first use of the method is considered, numerical experiments demonstrate consistent improvement in accuracy in the time-instantaneous QoI prediction relative to the original surrogate model, across a large number of test cases. When the second use is considered, results show that the proposed method provides accurate statistical predictions of the time- and well-averaged errors.

(AJST) RELATIVE EFFICIENCY OF NON-PARAMETRIC ERROR ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

NORBERT OPIYO AKECH

on 100 bootstrap samples, a sample of size n being taken with replacement in each initial sample of size n. .... the overlap (or optimal error rate) of the populations. However, the expression (2.3) for the computation of ..... Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 9, 628-633. Lachenbruch P. A. (1967). An almost unbiased method ...

Method for evaluation of risk due to seismic related design and construction errors based on past reactor experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez Cuesta, M.; Okrent, D.

1985-01-01

This paper proposes a methodology for quantification of risk due to seismic related design and construction errors in nuclear power plants, based on information available on errors discovered in the past. For the purposes of this paper, an error is defined as any event that causes the seismic safety margins of a nuclear power plant to be smaller than implied by current regulatory requirements and industry common practice. Also, the actual reduction in the safety margins caused by the error will be called a deficiency. The method is based on a theoretical model of errors, called a deficiency logic diagram. First, an ultimate cause is present. This ultimate cause is consumated as a specific instance, called originating error. As originating errors may occur in actions to be applied a number of times, a deficiency generation system may be involved. Quality assurance activities will hopefully identify most of these deficiencies, requesting their disposition. However, the quality assurance program is not perfect and some operating plant deficiencies may persist, causing different levels of impact to the plant logic. The paper provides a way of extrapolating information about errors discovered in plants under construction in order to assess the risk due to errors that have not been discovered

Error Analysis of Ia Supernova and Query on Cosmic Dark Energy ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2007), we find that. 3.796% of the data is an outline of 2.6σ based on the average total observational error of the distance modulus of SNIa, 0.31 m . Obviously, the distance modulus error deviates Gaussian distribution seriously, and it is not suitable to calculate the system- atic error σsys of SNIa by the χ2 check test method.

Flexible time domain averaging technique

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Ming; Lin, Jing; Lei, Yaguo; Wang, Xiufeng

2013-09-01

Time domain averaging(TDA) is essentially a comb filter, it cannot extract the specified harmonics which may be caused by some faults, such as gear eccentric. Meanwhile, TDA always suffers from period cutting error(PCE) to different extent. Several improved TDA methods have been proposed, however they cannot completely eliminate the waveform reconstruction error caused by PCE. In order to overcome the shortcomings of conventional methods, a flexible time domain averaging(FTDA) technique is established, which adapts to the analyzed signal through adjusting each harmonic of the comb filter. In this technique, the explicit form of FTDA is first constructed by frequency domain sampling. Subsequently, chirp Z-transform(CZT) is employed in the algorithm of FTDA, which can improve the calculating efficiency significantly. Since the signal is reconstructed in the continuous time domain, there is no PCE in the FTDA. To validate the effectiveness of FTDA in the signal de-noising, interpolation and harmonic reconstruction, a simulated multi-components periodic signal that corrupted by noise is processed by FTDA. The simulation results show that the FTDA is capable of recovering the periodic components from the background noise effectively. Moreover, it can improve the signal-to-noise ratio by 7.9 dB compared with conventional ones. Experiments are also carried out on gearbox test rigs with chipped tooth and eccentricity gear, respectively. It is shown that the FTDA can identify the direction and severity of the eccentricity gear, and further enhances the amplitudes of impulses by 35%. The proposed technique not only solves the problem of PCE, but also provides a useful tool for the fault symptom extraction of rotating machinery.

Error Patterns with Fraction Calculations at Fourth Grade as a Function of Students' Mathematics Achievement Status.

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Schumacher, Robin F; Malone, Amelia S

2017-09-01

The goal of the present study was to describe fraction-calculation errors among 4 th -grade students and determine whether error patterns differed as a function of problem type (addition vs. subtraction; like vs. unlike denominators), orientation (horizontal vs. vertical), or mathematics-achievement status (low- vs. average- vs. high-achieving). We specifically addressed whether mathematics-achievement status was related to students' tendency to operate with whole number bias. We extended this focus by comparing low-performing students' errors in two instructional settings that focused on two different types of fraction understandings: core instruction that focused on part-whole understanding vs. small-group tutoring that focused on magnitude understanding. Results showed students across the sample were more likely to operate with whole number bias on problems with unlike denominators. Students with low or average achievement (who only participated in core instruction) were more likely to operate with whole number bias than students with low achievement who participated in small-group tutoring. We suggest instruction should emphasize magnitude understanding to sufficiently increase fraction understanding for all students in the upper elementary grades.

Monthly streamflow forecasting with auto-regressive integrated moving average

Science.gov (United States)

Nasir, Najah; Samsudin, Ruhaidah; Shabri, Ani

2017-09-01

Forecasting of streamflow is one of the many ways that can contribute to better decision making for water resource management. The auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was selected in this research for monthly streamflow forecasting with enhancement made by pre-processing the data using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). This study also proposed an extension of the SSA technique to include a step where clustering was performed on the eigenvector pairs before reconstruction of the time series. The monthly streamflow data of Sungai Muda at Jeniang, Sungai Muda at Jambatan Syed Omar and Sungai Ketil at Kuala Pegang was gathered from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia. A ratio of 9:1 was used to divide the data into training and testing sets. The ARIMA, SSA-ARIMA and Clustered SSA-ARIMA models were all developed in R software. Results from the proposed model are then compared to a conventional auto-regressive integrated moving average model using the root-mean-square error and mean absolute error values. It was found that the proposed model can outperform the conventional model.

Average and dispersion of the luminosity-redshift relation in the concordance model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ben-Dayan, I. [DESY Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Gasperini, M. [Bari Univ. (Italy). Dipt. di Fisica; Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Bari (Italy); Marozzi, G. [College de France, 75 - Paris (France); Geneve Univ. (Switzerland). Dept. de Physique Theorique and CAP; Nugier, F. [Ecole Normale Superieure CNRS, Paris (France). Laboratoire de Physique Theorique; Veneziano, G. [College de France, 75 - Paris (France); CERN, Geneva (Switzerland). Physics Dept.; New York Univ., NY (United States). Dept. of Physics

2013-03-15

Starting from the luminosity-redshift relation recently given up to second order in the Poisson gauge, we calculate the effects of the realistic stochastic background of perturbations of the so-called concordance model on the combined light-cone and ensemble average of various functions of the luminosity distance, and on their variance, as functions of redshift. We apply a gauge-invariant light-cone averaging prescription which is free from infrared and ultraviolet divergences, making our results robust with respect to changes of the corresponding cutoffs. Our main conclusions, in part already anticipated in a recent letter for the case of a perturbation spectrum computed in the linear regime, are that such inhomogeneities not only cannot avoid the need for dark energy, but also cannot prevent, in principle, the determination of its parameters down to an accuracy of order 10{sup -3} - 10{sup -5}, depending on the averaged observable and on the regime considered for the power spectrum. However, taking into account the appropriate corrections arising in the non-linear regime, we predict an irreducible scatter of the data approaching the 10% level which, for limited statistics, will necessarily limit the attainable precision. The predicted dispersion appears to be in good agreement with current observational estimates of the distance-modulus variance due to Doppler and lensing effects (at low and high redshifts, respectively), and represents a challenge for future precision measurements.

Errors in clinical laboratories or errors in laboratory medicine?

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Plebani, Mario

2006-01-01

Laboratory testing is a highly complex process and, although laboratory services are relatively safe, they are not as safe as they could or should be. Clinical laboratories have long focused their attention on quality control methods and quality assessment programs dealing with analytical aspects of testing. However, a growing body of evidence accumulated in recent decades demonstrates that quality in clinical laboratories cannot be assured by merely focusing on purely analytical aspects. The more recent surveys on errors in laboratory medicine conclude that in the delivery of laboratory testing, mistakes occur more frequently before (pre-analytical) and after (post-analytical) the test has been performed. Most errors are due to pre-analytical factors (46-68.2% of total errors), while a high error rate (18.5-47% of total errors) has also been found in the post-analytical phase. Errors due to analytical problems have been significantly reduced over time, but there is evidence that, particularly for immunoassays, interference may have a serious impact on patients. A description of the most frequent and risky pre-, intra- and post-analytical errors and advice on practical steps for measuring and reducing the risk of errors is therefore given in the present paper. Many mistakes in the Total Testing Process are called "laboratory errors", although these may be due to poor communication, action taken by others involved in the testing process (e.g., physicians, nurses and phlebotomists), or poorly designed processes, all of which are beyond the laboratory's control. Likewise, there is evidence that laboratory information is only partially utilized. A recent document from the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) recommends a new, broader definition of the term "laboratory error" and a classification of errors according to different criteria. In a modern approach to total quality, centered on patients' needs and satisfaction, the risk of errors and mistakes

Multi-GNSS signal-in-space range error assessment - Methodology and results

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Montenbruck, Oliver; Steigenberger, Peter; Hauschild, André

2018-06-01

The positioning accuracy of global and regional navigation satellite systems (GNSS/RNSS) depends on a variety of influence factors. For constellation-specific performance analyses it has become common practice to separate a geometry-related quality factor (the dilution of precision, DOP) from the measurement and modeling errors of the individual ranging measurements (known as user equivalent range error, UERE). The latter is further divided into user equipment errors and contributions related to the space and control segment. The present study reviews the fundamental concepts and underlying assumptions of signal-in-space range error (SISRE) analyses and presents a harmonized framework for multi-GNSS performance monitoring based on the comparison of broadcast and precise ephemerides. The implications of inconsistent geometric reference points, non-common time systems, and signal-specific range biases are analyzed, and strategies for coping with these issues in the definition and computation of SIS range errors are developed. The presented concepts are, furthermore, applied to current navigation satellite systems, and representative results are presented along with a discussion of constellation-specific problems in their determination. Based on data for the January to December 2017 time frame, representative global average root-mean-square (RMS) SISRE values of 0.2 m, 0.6 m, 1 m, and 2 m are obtained for Galileo, GPS, BeiDou-2, and GLONASS, respectively. Roughly two times larger values apply for the corresponding 95th-percentile values. Overall, the study contributes to a better understanding and harmonization of multi-GNSS SISRE analyses and their use as key performance indicators for the various constellations.

Influences of optical-spectrum errors on excess relative intensity noise in a fiber-optic gyroscope

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Zheng, Yue; Zhang, Chunxi; Li, Lijing

2018-03-01

The excess relative intensity noise (RIN) generated from broadband sources degrades the angular-random-walk performance of a fiber-optic gyroscope dramatically. Many methods have been proposed and managed to suppress the excess RIN. However, the properties of the excess RIN under the influences of different optical errors in the fiber-optic gyroscope have not been systematically investigated. Therefore, it is difficult for the existing RIN-suppression methods to achieve the optimal results in practice. In this work, the influences of different optical-spectrum errors on the power spectral density of the excess RIN are theoretically analyzed. In particular, the properties of the excess RIN affected by the raised-cosine-type ripples in the optical spectrum are elaborately investigated. Experimental measurements of the excess RIN corresponding to different optical-spectrum errors are in good agreement with our theoretical analysis, demonstrating its validity. This work provides a comprehensive understanding of the properties of the excess RIN under the influences of different optical-spectrum errors. Potentially, it can be utilized to optimize the configurations of the existing RIN-suppression methods by accurately evaluating the power spectral density of the excess RIN.

Team errors: definition and taxonomy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sasou, Kunihide; Reason, James

1999-01-01

In error analysis or error management, the focus is usually upon individuals who have made errors. In large complex systems, however, most people work in teams or groups. Considering this working environment, insufficient emphasis has been given to 'team errors'. This paper discusses the definition of team errors and its taxonomy. These notions are also applied to events that have occurred in the nuclear power industry, aviation industry and shipping industry. The paper also discusses the relations between team errors and Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs). As a result, the proposed definition and taxonomy are found to be useful in categorizing team errors. The analysis also reveals that deficiencies in communication, resource/task management, excessive authority gradient, excessive professional courtesy will cause team errors. Handling human errors as team errors provides an opportunity to reduce human errors

Category structure determines the relative attractiveness of global versus local averages.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Tobias; Carr, Evan W; Davis, Tyler; Winkielman, Piotr

2018-02-01

Stimuli that capture the central tendency of presented exemplars are often preferred-a phenomenon also known as the classic beauty-in-averageness effect . However, recent studies have shown that this effect can reverse under certain conditions. We propose that a key variable for such ugliness-in-averageness effects is the category structure of the presented exemplars. When exemplars cluster into multiple subcategories, the global average should no longer reflect the underlying stimulus distributions, and will thereby become unattractive. In contrast, the subcategory averages (i.e., local averages) should better reflect the stimulus distributions, and become more attractive. In 3 studies, we presented participants with dot patterns belonging to 2 different subcategories. Importantly, across studies, we also manipulated the distinctiveness of the subcategories. We found that participants preferred the local averages over the global average when they first learned to classify the patterns into 2 different subcategories in a contrastive categorization paradigm (Experiment 1). Moreover, participants still preferred local averages when first classifying patterns into a single category (Experiment 2) or when not classifying patterns at all during incidental learning (Experiment 3), as long as the subcategories were sufficiently distinct. Finally, as a proof-of-concept, we mapped our empirical results onto predictions generated by a well-known computational model of category learning (the Generalized Context Model [GCM]). Overall, our findings emphasize the key role of categorization for understanding the nature of preferences, including any effects that emerge from stimulus averaging. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Double symbol error rates for differential detection of narrow-band FM

Science.gov (United States)

Simon, M. K.

1985-01-01

This paper evaluates the double symbol error rate (average probability of two consecutive symbol errors) in differentially detected narrow-band FM. Numerical results are presented for the special case of MSK with a Gaussian IF receive filter. It is shown that, not unlike similar results previously obtained for the single error probability of such systems, large inaccuracies in predicted performance can occur when intersymbol interference is ignored.

Radon measurements-discussion of error estimates for selected methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhukovsky, Michael; Onischenko, Alexandra; Bastrikov, Vladislav

2010-01-01

The main sources of uncertainties for grab sampling, short-term (charcoal canisters) and long term (track detectors) measurements are: systematic bias of reference equipment; random Poisson and non-Poisson errors during calibration; random Poisson and non-Poisson errors during measurements. The origins of non-Poisson random errors during calibration are different for different kinds of instrumental measurements. The main sources of uncertainties for retrospective measurements conducted by surface traps techniques can be divided in two groups: errors of surface 210 Pb ( 210 Po) activity measurements and uncertainties of transfer from 210 Pb surface activity in glass objects to average radon concentration during this object exposure. It's shown that total measurement error of surface trap retrospective technique can be decreased to 35%.

VOLUMETRIC ERROR COMPENSATION IN FIVE-AXIS CNC MACHINING CENTER THROUGH KINEMATICS MODELING OF GEOMETRIC ERROR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pooyan Vahidi Pashsaki

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Accuracy of a five-axis CNC machine tool is affected by a vast number of error sources. This paper investigates volumetric error modeling and its compensation to the basis for creation of new tool path for improvement of work pieces accuracy. The volumetric error model of a five-axis machine tool with the configuration RTTTR (tilting head B-axis and rotary table in work piece side A΄ was set up taking into consideration rigid body kinematics and homogeneous transformation matrix, in which 43 error components are included. Volumetric error comprises 43 error components that can separately reduce geometrical and dimensional accuracy of work pieces. The machining accuracy of work piece is guaranteed due to the position of the cutting tool center point (TCP relative to the work piece. The cutting tool is deviated from its ideal position relative to the work piece and machining error is experienced. For compensation process detection of the present tool path and analysis of the RTTTR five-axis CNC machine tools geometrical error, translating current position of component to compensated positions using the Kinematics error model, converting newly created component to new tool paths using the compensation algorithms and finally editing old G-codes using G-code generator algorithm have been employed.

Relative and Absolute Error Control in a Finite-Difference Method Solution of Poisson's Equation

Science.gov (United States)

Prentice, J. S. C.

2012-01-01

An algorithm for error control (absolute and relative) in the five-point finite-difference method applied to Poisson's equation is described. The algorithm is based on discretization of the domain of the problem by means of three rectilinear grids, each of different resolution. We discuss some hardware limitations associated with the algorithm,…

MO-FG-202-05: Identifying Treatment Planning System Errors in IROC-H Phantom Irradiations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kerns, J; Followill, D; Howell, R; Melancon, A; Stingo, F; Kry, S

2016-01-01

Purpose: Treatment Planning System (TPS) errors can affect large numbers of cancer patients receiving radiation therapy. Using an independent recalculation system, the Imaging and Radiation Oncology Core-Houston (IROC-H) can identify institutions that have not sufficiently modelled their linear accelerators in their TPS model. Methods: Linear accelerator point measurement data from IROC-H’s site visits was aggregated and analyzed from over 30 linear accelerator models. Dosimetrically similar models were combined to create “classes”. The class data was used to construct customized beam models in an independent treatment dose verification system (TVS). Approximately 200 head and neck phantom plans from 2012 to 2015 were recalculated using this TVS. Comparison of plan accuracy was evaluated by comparing the measured dose to the institution’s TPS dose as well as the TVS dose. In cases where the TVS was more accurate than the institution by an average of >2%, the institution was identified as having a non-negligible TPS error. Results: Of the ∼200 recalculated plans, the average improvement using the TVS was ∼0.1%; i.e. the recalculation, on average, slightly outperformed the institution’s TPS. Of all the recalculated phantoms, 20% were identified as having a non-negligible TPS error. Fourteen plans failed current IROC-H criteria; the average TVS improvement of the failing plans was ∼3% and 57% were found to have non-negligible TPS errors. Conclusion: IROC-H has developed an independent recalculation system to identify institutions that have considerable TPS errors. A large number of institutions were found to have non-negligible TPS errors. Even institutions that passed IROC-H criteria could be identified as having a TPS error. Resolution of such errors would improve dose delivery for a large number of IROC-H phantoms and ultimately, patients.

The Adaptive-Clustering and Error-Correction Method for Forecasting Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lakes and Reservoirs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao-zhe Bai

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Globally, cyanobacteria blooms frequently occur, and effective prediction of cyanobacteria blooms in lakes and reservoirs could constitute an essential proactive strategy for water-resource protection. However, cyanobacteria blooms are very complicated because of the internal stochastic nature of the system evolution and the external uncertainty of the observation data. In this study, an adaptive-clustering algorithm is introduced to obtain some typical operating intervals. In addition, the number of nearest neighbors used for modeling was optimized by particle swarm optimization. Finally, a fuzzy linear regression method based on error-correction was used to revise the model dynamically near the operating point. We found that the combined method can characterize the evolutionary track of cyanobacteria blooms in lakes and reservoirs. The model constructed in this paper is compared to other cyanobacteria-bloom forecasting methods (e.g., phase space reconstruction and traditional-clustering linear regression, and, then, the average relative error and average absolute error are used to compare the accuracies of these models. The results suggest that the proposed model is superior. As such, the newly developed approach achieves more precise predictions, which can be used to prevent the further deterioration of the water environment.

Definition of dose intensity (DI), average relative DI and effective DI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alberto, P.

1995-01-01

The cytotoxic activity of cancer chemotherapy is related to the dose and to the amount of drug delivered per time unit. the significance of time in the effectiveness of a treatment program is frequently overlooked. The term of dose intensity (DI) is used to define the drug dose delivered per time unit and is expressed as mg/m 2 per week. A delay in the sequence of treatment cycles decreases the DI in the DI in the same proportion as a reduction of dose. Average relative DI corresponds to the mean DI of combined agents and is expressed as a fraction of a similar combination selected as a standard. Di is useful to compare the dose actually received with the prescribed dose. The relation of DI with tumor response or survival has not been fully demonstrated. A threshold DI level for therapeutic activity is evident. Above this threshold, a linear relationship of DI and effectiveness is not obvious, particularly regarding high-dose chemotherapy. The term of DI is more useful in its principle than in the significance of its calculated value. (authors). 19 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs

Estimation of total error in DWPF reported radionuclide inventories. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, T.B.

1995-01-01

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at the Savannah River Site is required to determine and report the radionuclide inventory of its glass product. For each macro-batch, the DWPF will report both the total amount (in curies) of each reportable radionuclide and the average concentration (in curies/gram of glass) of each reportable radionuclide. The DWPF is to provide the estimated error of these reported values of its radionuclide inventory as well. The objective of this document is to provide a framework for determining the estimated error in DWPF's reporting of these radionuclide inventories. This report investigates the impact of random errors due to measurement and sampling on the total amount of each reportable radionuclide in a given macro-batch. In addition, the impact of these measurement and sampling errors and process variation are evaluated to determine the uncertainty in the reported average concentrations of radionuclides in DWPF's filled canister inventory resulting from each macro-batch

Low Average Sidelobe Slot Array Antennas for Radiometer Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Rengarajan, Sembiam; Zawardzki, Mark S.; Hodges, Richard E.

2012-01-01

In radiometer applications, it is required to design antennas that meet low average sidelobe levels and low average return loss over a specified frequency bandwidth. It is a challenge to meet such specifications over a frequency range when one uses resonant elements such as waveguide feed slots. In addition to their inherent narrow frequency band performance, the problem is exacerbated due to modeling errors and manufacturing tolerances. There was a need to develop a design methodology to solve the problem. An iterative design procedure was developed by starting with an array architecture, lattice spacing, aperture distribution, waveguide dimensions, etc. The array was designed using Elliott s technique with appropriate values of the total slot conductance in each radiating waveguide, and the total resistance in each feed waveguide. Subsequently, the array performance was analyzed by the full wave method of moments solution to the pertinent integral equations. Monte Carlo simulations were also carried out to account for amplitude and phase errors introduced for the aperture distribution due to modeling errors as well as manufacturing tolerances. If the design margins for the average sidelobe level and the average return loss were not adequate, array architecture, lattice spacing, aperture distribution, and waveguide dimensions were varied in subsequent iterations. Once the design margins were found to be adequate, the iteration was stopped and a good design was achieved. A symmetric array architecture was found to meet the design specification with adequate margin. The specifications were near 40 dB for angular regions beyond 30 degrees from broadside. Separable Taylor distribution with nbar=4 and 35 dB sidelobe specification was chosen for each principal plane. A non-separable distribution obtained by the genetic algorithm was found to have similar characteristics. The element spacing was obtained to provide the required beamwidth and close to a null in the E

Diagnostic errors related to acute abdominal pain in the emergency department.

Science.gov (United States)

Medford-Davis, Laura; Park, Elizabeth; Shlamovitz, Gil; Suliburk, James; Meyer, Ashley N D; Singh, Hardeep

2016-04-01

Diagnostic errors in the emergency department (ED) are harmful and costly. We reviewed a selected high-risk cohort of patients presenting to the ED with abdominal pain to evaluate for possible diagnostic errors and associated process breakdowns. We conducted a retrospective chart review of ED patients >18 years at an urban academic hospital. A computerised 'trigger' algorithm identified patients possibly at high risk for diagnostic errors to facilitate selective record reviews. The trigger determined patients to be at high risk because they: (1) presented to the ED with abdominal pain, and were discharged home and (2) had a return ED visit within 10 days that led to a hospitalisation. Diagnostic errors were defined as missed opportunities to make a correct or timely diagnosis based on the evidence available during the first ED visit, regardless of patient harm, and included errors that involved both ED and non-ED providers. Errors were determined by two independent record reviewers followed by team consensus in cases of disagreement. Diagnostic errors occurred in 35 of 100 high-risk cases. Over two-thirds had breakdowns involving the patient-provider encounter (most commonly history-taking or ordering additional tests) and/or follow-up and tracking of diagnostic information (most commonly follow-up of abnormal test results). The most frequently missed diagnoses were gallbladder pathology (n=10) and urinary infections (n=5). Diagnostic process breakdowns in ED patients with abdominal pain most commonly involved history-taking, ordering insufficient tests in the patient-provider encounter and problems with follow-up of abnormal test results. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Applying Intelligent Algorithms to Automate the Identification of Error Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Haizhe; Qu, Qingxing; Munechika, Masahiko; Sano, Masataka; Kajihara, Chisato; Duffy, Vincent G; Chen, Han

2018-05-03

Medical errors are the manifestation of the defects occurring in medical processes. Extracting and identifying defects as medical error factors from these processes are an effective approach to prevent medical errors. However, it is a difficult and time-consuming task and requires an analyst with a professional medical background. The issues of identifying a method to extract medical error factors and reduce the extraction difficulty need to be resolved. In this research, a systematic methodology to extract and identify error factors in the medical administration process was proposed. The design of the error report, extraction of the error factors, and identification of the error factors were analyzed. Based on 624 medical error cases across four medical institutes in both Japan and China, 19 error-related items and their levels were extracted. After which, they were closely related to 12 error factors. The relational model between the error-related items and error factors was established based on a genetic algorithm (GA)-back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model. Additionally, compared to GA-BPNN, BPNN, partial least squares regression and support vector regression, GA-BPNN exhibited a higher overall prediction accuracy, being able to promptly identify the error factors from the error-related items. The combination of "error-related items, their different levels, and the GA-BPNN model" was proposed as an error-factor identification technology, which could automatically identify medical error factors.

Sampling Errors in Monthly Rainfall Totals for TRMM and SSM/I, Based on Statistics of Retrieved Rain Rates and Simple Models

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Thomas L.; Kundu, Prasun K.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Estimates from TRMM satellite data of monthly total rainfall over an area are subject to substantial sampling errors due to the limited number of visits to the area by the satellite during the month. Quantitative comparisons of TRMM averages with data collected by other satellites and by ground-based systems require some estimate of the size of this sampling error. A method of estimating this sampling error based on the actual statistics of the TRMM observations and on some modeling work has been developed. "Sampling error" in TRMM monthly averages is defined here relative to the monthly total a hypothetical satellite permanently stationed above the area would have reported. "Sampling error" therefore includes contributions from the random and systematic errors introduced by the satellite remote sensing system. As part of our long-term goal of providing error estimates for each grid point accessible to the TRMM instruments, sampling error estimates for TRMM based on rain retrievals from TRMM microwave (TMI) data are compared for different times of the year and different oceanic areas (to minimize changes in the statistics due to algorithmic differences over land and ocean). Changes in sampling error estimates due to changes in rain statistics due 1) to evolution of the official algorithms used to process the data, and 2) differences from other remote sensing systems such as the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), are analyzed.

High cortisol awakening response is associated with impaired error monitoring and decreased post-error adjustment.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Liang; Duan, Hongxia; Qin, Shaozheng; Yuan, Yiran; Buchanan, Tony W; Zhang, Kan; Wu, Jianhui

2015-01-01

The cortisol awakening response (CAR), a rapid increase in cortisol levels following morning awakening, is an important aspect of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical axis activity. Alterations in the CAR have been linked to a variety of mental disorders and cognitive function. However, little is known regarding the relationship between the CAR and error processing, a phenomenon that is vital for cognitive control and behavioral adaptation. Using high-temporal resolution measures of event-related potentials (ERPs) combined with behavioral assessment of error processing, we investigated whether and how the CAR is associated with two key components of error processing: error detection and subsequent behavioral adjustment. Sixty university students performed a Go/No-go task while their ERPs were recorded. Saliva samples were collected at 0, 15, 30 and 60 min after awakening on the two consecutive days following ERP data collection. The results showed that a higher CAR was associated with slowed latency of the error-related negativity (ERN) and a higher post-error miss rate. The CAR was not associated with other behavioral measures such as the false alarm rate and the post-correct miss rate. These findings suggest that high CAR is a biological factor linked to impairments of multiple steps of error processing in healthy populations, specifically, the automatic detection of error and post-error behavioral adjustment. A common underlying neural mechanism of physiological and cognitive control may be crucial for engaging in both CAR and error processing.

Angular discretization errors in transport theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, P.; Yu, F.

1992-01-01

Elements of the information-based complexity theory are computed for several types of information and associated algorithms for angular approximations in the setting of a on-dimensional model problem. For point-evaluation information, the local and global radii of information are computed, a (trivial) optimal algorithm is determined, and the local and global error of a discrete ordinates algorithm are shown to be infinite. For average cone-integral information, the local and global radii of information are computed, the local and global error tends to zero as the underlying partition is indefinitely refined. A central algorithm for such information and an optimal partition (of given cardinality) are described. It is further shown that the analytic first-collision source method has zero error (for the purely absorbing model problem). Implications of the restricted problem domains suitable for the various types of information are discussed

Analyzing Software Requirements Errors in Safety-Critical, Embedded Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Lutz, Robyn R.

1993-01-01

This paper analyzes the root causes of safety-related software errors in safety-critical, embedded systems. The results show that software errors identified as potentially hazardous to the system tend to be produced by different error mechanisms than non- safety-related software errors. Safety-related software errors are shown to arise most commonly from (1) discrepancies between the documented requirements specifications and the requirements needed for correct functioning of the system and (2) misunderstandings of the software's interface with the rest of the system. The paper uses these results to identify methods by which requirements errors can be prevented. The goal is to reduce safety-related software errors and to enhance the safety of complex, embedded systems.

Operator- and software-related post-experimental variability and source of error in 2-DE analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Millioni, Renato; Puricelli, Lucia; Sbrignadello, Stefano; Iori, Elisabetta; Murphy, Ellen; Tessari, Paolo

2012-05-01

In the field of proteomics, several approaches have been developed for separating proteins and analyzing their differential relative abundance. One of the oldest, yet still widely used, is 2-DE. Despite the continuous advance of new methods, which are less demanding from a technical standpoint, 2-DE is still compelling and has a lot of potential for improvement. The overall variability which affects 2-DE includes biological, experimental, and post-experimental (software-related) variance. It is important to highlight how much of the total variability of this technique is due to post-experimental variability, which, so far, has been largely neglected. In this short review, we have focused on this topic and explained that post-experimental variability and source of error can be further divided into those which are software-dependent and those which are operator-dependent. We discuss these issues in detail, offering suggestions for reducing errors that may affect the quality of results, summarizing the advantages and drawbacks of each approach.

Impact of exposure measurement error in air pollution epidemiology: effect of error type in time-series studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldman, Gretchen T; Mulholland, James A; Russell, Armistead G; Strickland, Matthew J; Klein, Mitchel; Waller, Lance A; Tolbert, Paige E

2011-06-22

Two distinctly different types of measurement error are Berkson and classical. Impacts of measurement error in epidemiologic studies of ambient air pollution are expected to depend on error type. We characterize measurement error due to instrument imprecision and spatial variability as multiplicative (i.e. additive on the log scale) and model it over a range of error types to assess impacts on risk ratio estimates both on a per measurement unit basis and on a per interquartile range (IQR) basis in a time-series study in Atlanta. Daily measures of twelve ambient air pollutants were analyzed: NO2, NOx, O3, SO2, CO, PM10 mass, PM2.5 mass, and PM2.5 components sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon and organic carbon. Semivariogram analysis was applied to assess spatial variability. Error due to this spatial variability was added to a reference pollutant time-series on the log scale using Monte Carlo simulations. Each of these time-series was exponentiated and introduced to a Poisson generalized linear model of cardiovascular disease emergency department visits. Measurement error resulted in reduced statistical significance for the risk ratio estimates for all amounts (corresponding to different pollutants) and types of error. When modelled as classical-type error, risk ratios were attenuated, particularly for primary air pollutants, with average attenuation in risk ratios on a per unit of measurement basis ranging from 18% to 92% and on an IQR basis ranging from 18% to 86%. When modelled as Berkson-type error, risk ratios per unit of measurement were biased away from the null hypothesis by 2% to 31%, whereas risk ratios per IQR were attenuated (i.e. biased toward the null) by 5% to 34%. For CO modelled error amount, a range of error types were simulated and effects on risk ratio bias and significance were observed. For multiplicative error, both the amount and type of measurement error impact health effect estimates in air pollution epidemiology. By modelling

Systematic errors in VLF direction-finding of whistler ducts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strangeways, H.J.; Rycroft, M.J.

1980-01-01

In the previous paper it was shown that the systematic error in the azimuthal bearing due to multipath propagation and incident wave polarisation (when this also constitutes an error) was given by only three different forms for all VLF direction-finders currently used to investigate the position of whistler ducts. In this paper the magnitude of this error is investigated for different ionospheric and ground parameters for these three different systematic error types. By incorporating an ionosphere for which the refractive index is given by the full Appleton-Hartree formula, the variation of the systematic error with ionospheric electron density and latitude and direction of propagation is investigated in addition to the variation with wave frequency, ground conductivity and dielectric constant and distance of propagation. The systematic bearing error is also investigated for the three methods when the azimuthal bearing is averaged over a 2 kHz bandwidth. This is found to lead to a significantly smaller bearing error which, for the crossed-loops goniometer, approximates the bearing error calculated when phase-dependent terms in the receiver response are ignored. (author)

On nonstationarity-related errors in modal combination rules of the response spectrum method

Science.gov (United States)

Pathak, Shashank; Gupta, Vinay K.

2017-10-01

Characterization of seismic hazard via (elastic) design spectra and the estimation of linear peak response of a given structure from this characterization continue to form the basis of earthquake-resistant design philosophy in various codes of practice all over the world. Since the direct use of design spectrum ordinates is a preferred option for the practicing engineers, modal combination rules play central role in the peak response estimation. Most of the available modal combination rules are however based on the assumption that nonstationarity affects the structural response alike at the modal and overall response levels. This study considers those situations where this assumption may cause significant errors in the peak response estimation, and preliminary models are proposed for the estimation of the extents to which nonstationarity affects the modal and total system responses, when the ground acceleration process is assumed to be a stationary process. It is shown through numerical examples in the context of complete-quadratic-combination (CQC) method that the nonstationarity-related errors in the estimation of peak base shear may be significant, when strong-motion duration of the excitation is too small compared to the period of the system and/or the response is distributed comparably in several modes. It is also shown that these errors are reduced marginally with the use of the proposed nonstationarity factor models.

On the effect of systematic errors in near real time accountancy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avenhaus, R.

1987-01-01

Systematic measurement errors have a decisive impact on nuclear materials accountancy. This has been demonstrated at various occasions for a fixed number of inventory periods, i.e. for situations where the overall probability of detection is taken as the measure of effectiveness. In the framework of Near Real Time Accountancy (NRTA), however, such analyses have not yet been performed. In this paper sequential test procedures are considered which are based on the so-called MUF-Residuals. It is shown that, if the decision maker does not know the systematic error variance, the average run lengths tend towards infinity if this variance is equal or longer than that of the random error. Furthermore, if the decision maker knows this invariance, the average run length for constant loss or diversion is not shorter than that without loss or diversion. These results cast some doubt on the present practice of data evaluation where systematic errors are tacitly assumed to persist for an infinite time. In fact, information about the time dependence of the variances of these errors has to be gathered in order that the efficiency of NRTA evaluation methods can be estimated realistically

Crowdsourcing for error detection in cortical surface delineations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ganz, Melanie; Kondermann, Daniel; Andrulis, Jonas; Knudsen, Gitte Moos; Maier-Hein, Lena

2017-01-01

With the recent trend toward big data analysis, neuroimaging datasets have grown substantially in the past years. While larger datasets potentially offer important insights for medical research, one major bottleneck is the requirement for resources of medical experts needed to validate automatic processing results. To address this issue, the goal of this paper was to assess whether anonymous nonexperts from an online community can perform quality control of MR-based cortical surface delineations derived by an automatic algorithm. So-called knowledge workers from an online crowdsourcing platform were asked to annotate errors in automatic cortical surface delineations on 100 central, coronal slices of MR images. On average, annotations for 100 images were obtained in less than an hour. When using expert annotations as reference, the crowd on average achieves a sensitivity of 82 % and a precision of 42 %. Merging multiple annotations per image significantly improves the sensitivity of the crowd (up to 95 %), but leads to a decrease in precision (as low as 22 %). Our experiments show that the detection of errors in automatic cortical surface delineations generated by anonymous untrained workers is feasible. Future work will focus on increasing the sensitivity of our method further, such that the error detection tasks can be handled exclusively by the crowd and expert resources can be focused on error correction.

Reward positivity: Reward prediction error or salience prediction error?

Science.gov (United States)

Heydari, Sepideh; Holroyd, Clay B

2016-08-01

The reward positivity is a component of the human ERP elicited by feedback stimuli in trial-and-error learning and guessing tasks. A prominent theory holds that the reward positivity reflects a reward prediction error signal that is sensitive to outcome valence, being larger for unexpected positive events relative to unexpected negative events (Holroyd & Coles, 2002). Although the theory has found substantial empirical support, most of these studies have utilized either monetary or performance feedback to test the hypothesis. However, in apparent contradiction to the theory, a recent study found that unexpected physical punishments also elicit the reward positivity (Talmi, Atkinson, & El-Deredy, 2013). The authors of this report argued that the reward positivity reflects a salience prediction error rather than a reward prediction error. To investigate this finding further, in the present study participants navigated a virtual T maze and received feedback on each trial under two conditions. In a reward condition, the feedback indicated that they would either receive a monetary reward or not and in a punishment condition the feedback indicated that they would receive a small shock or not. We found that the feedback stimuli elicited a typical reward positivity in the reward condition and an apparently delayed reward positivity in the punishment condition. Importantly, this signal was more positive to the stimuli that predicted the omission of a possible punishment relative to stimuli that predicted a forthcoming punishment, which is inconsistent with the salience hypothesis. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Comparison of Two Methods for Estimating the Sampling-Related Uncertainty of Satellite Rainfall Averages Based on a Large Radar Data Set

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor); Bell, Thomas L.; Steiner, Matthias; Zhang, Yu; Wood, Eric F.

2002-01-01

The uncertainty of rainfall estimated from averages of discrete samples collected by a satellite is assessed using a multi-year radar data set covering a large portion of the United States. The sampling-related uncertainty of rainfall estimates is evaluated for all combinations of 100 km, 200 km, and 500 km space domains, 1 day, 5 day, and 30 day rainfall accumulations, and regular sampling time intervals of 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 8 h, and 12 h. These extensive analyses are combined to characterize the sampling uncertainty as a function of space and time domain, sampling frequency, and rainfall characteristics by means of a simple scaling law. Moreover, it is shown that both parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques of estimating the sampling uncertainty produce comparable results. Sampling uncertainty estimates, however, do depend on the choice of technique for obtaining them. They can also vary considerably from case to case, reflecting the great variability of natural rainfall, and should therefore be expressed in probabilistic terms. Rainfall calibration errors are shown to affect comparison of results obtained by studies based on data from different climate regions and/or observation platforms.

An in-process form error measurement system for precision machining

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Y; Huang, X; Zhang, Y

2010-01-01

In-process form error measurement for precision machining is studied. Due to two key problems, opaque barrier and vibration, the study of in-process form error optical measurement for precision machining has been a hard topic and so far very few existing research works can be found. In this project, an in-process form error measurement device is proposed to deal with the two key problems. Based on our existing studies, a prototype system has been developed. It is the first one of the kind that overcomes the two key problems. The prototype is based on a single laser sensor design of 50 nm resolution together with two techniques, a damping technique and a moving average technique, proposed for use with the device. The proposed damping technique is able to improve vibration attenuation by up to 21 times compared to the case of natural attenuation. The proposed moving average technique is able to reduce errors by seven to ten times without distortion to the form profile results. The two proposed techniques are simple but they are especially useful for the proposed device. For a workpiece sample, the measurement result under coolant condition is only 2.5% larger compared with the one under no coolant condition. For a certified Wyko test sample, the overall system measurement error can be as low as 0.3 µm. The measurement repeatability error can be as low as 2.2%. The experimental results give confidence in using the proposed in-process form error measurement device. For better results, further improvement in design and tests are necessary

Improved Design of Unequal Error Protection LDPC Codes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandberg Sara

2010-01-01

Full Text Available We propose an improved method for designing unequal error protection (UEP low-density parity-check (LDPC codes. The method is based on density evolution. The degree distribution with the best UEP properties is found, under the constraint that the threshold should not exceed the threshold of a non-UEP code plus some threshold offset. For different codeword lengths and different construction algorithms, we search for good threshold offsets for the UEP code design. The choice of the threshold offset is based on the average a posteriori variable node mutual information. Simulations reveal the counter intuitive result that the short-to-medium length codes designed with a suitable threshold offset all outperform the corresponding non-UEP codes in terms of average bit-error rate. The proposed codes are also compared to other UEP-LDPC codes found in the literature.

Task engagement and the relationships between the error-related negativity, agreeableness, behavioral shame proneness and cortisol

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tops, Mattie; Boksem, Maarten A. S.; Wester, Anne E.; Lorist, Monicque M.; Meijman, Theo F.

Previous results suggest that both cortisol. mobilization and the error-related negativity (ERN/Ne) reflect goal engagement, i.e. the mobilization and allocation of attentional and physiological resources. Personality measures of negative affectivity have been associated both to high cortisol levels

Interpreting the change detection error matrix

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oort, van P.A.J.

2007-01-01

Two different matrices are commonly reported in assessment of change detection accuracy: (1) single date error matrices and (2) binary change/no change error matrices. The third, less common form of reporting, is the transition error matrix. This paper discuses the relation between these matrices.

On the Performance of Multihop Heterodyne FSO Systems With Pointing Errors

KAUST Repository

Zedini, Emna

2015-03-30

This paper reports the end-to-end performance analysis of a multihop free-space optical system with amplify-and-forward (AF) channel-state-information (CSI)-assisted or fixed-gain relays using heterodyne detection over Gamma–Gamma turbulence fading with pointing error impairments. In particular, we derive new closed-form results for the average bit error rate (BER) of a variety of binary modulation schemes and the ergodic capacity in terms of the Meijer\\'s G function. We then offer new accurate asymptotic results for the average BER and the ergodic capacity at high SNR values in terms of simple elementary functions. For the capacity, novel asymptotic results at low and high average SNR regimes are also obtained via an alternative moments-based approach. All analytical results are verified via computer-based Monte-Carlo simulations.

A review of setup error in supine breast radiotherapy using cone-beam computed tomography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Batumalai, Vikneswary, E-mail: Vikneswary.batumalai@sswahs.nsw.gov.au [South Western Clinical School, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales (Australia); Liverpool and Macarthur Cancer Therapy Centres, New South Wales (Australia); Ingham Institute of Applied Medical Research, Sydney, New South Wales (Australia); Holloway, Lois [South Western Clinical School, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales (Australia); Liverpool and Macarthur Cancer Therapy Centres, New South Wales (Australia); Ingham Institute of Applied Medical Research, Sydney, New South Wales (Australia); Centre for Medical Radiation Physics, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, New South Wales (Australia); Institute of Medical Physics, School of Physics, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales (Australia); Delaney, Geoff P. [South Western Clinical School, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales (Australia); Liverpool and Macarthur Cancer Therapy Centres, New South Wales (Australia); Ingham Institute of Applied Medical Research, Sydney, New South Wales (Australia)

2016-10-01

Setup error in breast radiotherapy (RT) measured with 3-dimensional cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) is becoming more common. The purpose of this study is to review the literature relating to the magnitude of setup error in breast RT measured with CBCT. The different methods of image registration between CBCT and planning computed tomography (CT) scan were also explored. A literature search, not limited by date, was conducted using Medline and Google Scholar with the following key words: breast cancer, RT, setup error, and CBCT. This review includes studies that reported on systematic and random errors, and the methods used when registering CBCT scans with planning CT scan. A total of 11 relevant studies were identified for inclusion in this review. The average magnitude of error is generally less than 5 mm across a number of studies reviewed. The common registration methods used when registering CBCT scans with planning CT scan are based on bony anatomy, soft tissue, and surgical clips. No clear relationships between the setup errors detected and methods of registration were observed from this review. Further studies are needed to assess the benefit of CBCT over electronic portal image, as CBCT remains unproven to be of wide benefit in breast RT.

A review of setup error in supine breast radiotherapy using cone-beam computed tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batumalai, Vikneswary; Holloway, Lois; Delaney, Geoff P.

2016-01-01

Setup error in breast radiotherapy (RT) measured with 3-dimensional cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) is becoming more common. The purpose of this study is to review the literature relating to the magnitude of setup error in breast RT measured with CBCT. The different methods of image registration between CBCT and planning computed tomography (CT) scan were also explored. A literature search, not limited by date, was conducted using Medline and Google Scholar with the following key words: breast cancer, RT, setup error, and CBCT. This review includes studies that reported on systematic and random errors, and the methods used when registering CBCT scans with planning CT scan. A total of 11 relevant studies were identified for inclusion in this review. The average magnitude of error is generally less than 5 mm across a number of studies reviewed. The common registration methods used when registering CBCT scans with planning CT scan are based on bony anatomy, soft tissue, and surgical clips. No clear relationships between the setup errors detected and methods of registration were observed from this review. Further studies are needed to assess the benefit of CBCT over electronic portal image, as CBCT remains unproven to be of wide benefit in breast RT.

Parts of the Whole: Error Estimation for Science Students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dorothy Wallace

2017-01-01

Full Text Available It is important for science students to understand not only how to estimate error sizes in measurement data, but also to see how these errors contribute to errors in conclusions they may make about the data. Relatively small errors in measurement, errors in assumptions, and roundoff errors in computation may result in large error bounds on computed quantities of interest. In this column, we look closely at a standard method for measuring the volume of cancer tumor xenografts to see how small errors in each of these three factors may contribute to relatively large observed errors in recorded tumor volumes.

Errors in abdominal computed tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stephens, S.; Marting, I.; Dixon, A.K.

1989-01-01

Sixty-nine patients are presented in whom a substantial error was made on the initial abdominal computed tomography report. Certain features of these errors have been analysed. In 30 (43.5%) a lesion was simply not recognised (error of observation); in 39 (56.5%) the wrong conclusions were drawn about the nature of normal or abnormal structures (error of interpretation). The 39 errors of interpretation were more complex; in 7 patients an abnormal structure was noted but interpreted as normal, whereas in four a normal structure was thought to represent a lesion. Other interpretive errors included those where the wrong cause for a lesion had been ascribed (24 patients), and those where the abnormality was substantially under-reported (4 patients). Various features of these errors are presented and discussed. Errors were made just as often in relation to small and large lesions. Consultants made as many errors as senior registrar radiologists. It is like that dual reporting is the best method of avoiding such errors and, indeed, this is widely practised in our unit. (Author). 9 refs.; 5 figs.; 1 tab

Low relative error in consumer-grade GPS units make them ideal for measuring small-scale animal movement patterns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Greg A. Breed

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Consumer-grade GPS units are a staple of modern field ecology, but the relatively large error radii reported by manufacturers (up to 10 m ostensibly precludes their utility in measuring fine-scale movement of small animals such as insects. Here we demonstrate that for data collected at fine spatio-temporal scales, these devices can produce exceptionally accurate data on step-length and movement patterns of small animals. With an understanding of the properties of GPS error and how it arises, it is possible, using a simple field protocol, to use consumer grade GPS units to collect step-length data for the movement of small animals that introduces a median error as small as 11 cm. These small error rates were measured in controlled observations of real butterfly movement. Similar conclusions were reached using a ground-truth test track prepared with a field tape and compass and subsequently measured 20 times using the same methodology as the butterfly tracking. Median error in the ground-truth track was slightly higher than the field data, mostly between 20 and 30 cm, but even for the smallest ground-truth step (70 cm, this is still a signal-to-noise ratio of 3:1, and for steps of 3 m or more, the ratio is greater than 10:1. Such small errors relative to the movements being measured make these inexpensive units useful for measuring insect and other small animal movements on small to intermediate scales with budgets orders of magnitude lower than survey-grade units used in past studies. As an additional advantage, these units are simpler to operate, and insect or other small animal trackways can be collected more quickly than either survey-grade units or more traditional ruler/gird approaches.

Rounding errors in weighing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeach, J.L.

1976-01-01

When rounding error is large relative to weighing error, it cannot be ignored when estimating scale precision and bias from calibration data. Further, if the data grouping is coarse, rounding error is correlated with weighing error and may also have a mean quite different from zero. These facts are taken into account in a moment estimation method. A copy of the program listing for the MERDA program that provides moment estimates is available from the author. Experience suggests that if the data fall into four or more cells or groups, it is not necessary to apply the moment estimation method. Rather, the estimate given by equation (3) is valid in this instance. 5 tables

A formula for human average whole-body SARwb under diffuse fields exposure in the GHz region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bamba, A; Joseph, W; Vermeeren, G; Thielens, A; Tanghe, E; Martens, L

2014-01-01

A simple formula to determine the human average whole-body SAR (SAR wb ) under realistic propagation conditions is proposed in the GHz region, i.e. from 1.45 GHz to 5.8 GHz. The methodology is based on simulations of ellipsoidal human body models. Only the exposure (incident power densities) and the human mass are needed to apply the formula. Diffuse scattered illumination is addressed for the first time and the possible presence of a Line-of-Sight (LOS) component is addressed as well. As validation, the formula is applied to calculate the average whole-body SAR wb in 3D heterogeneous phantoms, i.e. the virtual family (34 year-old male, 26 year-old female, 11 year-old girl, and 6 year-old boy) and the results are compared with numerical ones—using the Finite-Difference Time-Domain (FDTD) method—at 3 GHz. For the LOS exposure, the average relative error varies from 28% to 12% (resp. 14–12%) for the vertical polarization (resp. horizontal polarization), depending on the heteregeneous phantom. Regarding the diffuse illumination, relative errors of −39.40%, −11.70%, 10.70%, and 10.60% are obtained for the 6 year-old boy, 11 year-old girl, 26 year-old female, and 34 year-old male, respectively. The proposed formula estimates well (especially for adults) the SAR wb induced by diffuse illumination in realistic conditions. In general, the correctness of the formula improves when the human mass increases. Keeping the uncertainties of the FDTD simulations in mind, the proposed formula might be important for the dosimetry community to assess rapidly and accurately the human absorption of electromagnetic radiation caused by diffuse fields in the GHz region. Finally, we show the applicability of the proposed formula to personal dosimetry for epidemiological research. (paper)

Performance monitoring in the anterior cingulate is not all error related: expectancy deviation and the representation of action-outcome associations.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliveira, Flavio T P; McDonald, John J; Goodman, David

2007-12-01

Several converging lines of evidence suggest that the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) is selectively involved in error detection or evaluation of poor performance. Here we challenge this notion by presenting event-related potential (ERP) evidence that the feedback-elicited error-related negativity, an ERP component attributed to the ACC, can be elicited by positive feedback when a person is expecting negative feedback and vice versa. These results suggest that performance monitoring in the ACC is not limited to error processing. We propose that the ACC acts as part of a more general performance-monitoring system that is activated by violations in expectancy. Further, we propose that the common observation of increased ACC activity elicited by negative events could be explained by an overoptimistic bias in generating expectations of performance. These results could shed light into neurobehavioral disorders, such as depression and mania, associated with alterations in performance monitoring and also in judgments of self-related events.

Evaluation of statistical models for forecast errors from the HBV model

Science.gov (United States)

Engeland, Kolbjørn; Renard, Benjamin; Steinsland, Ingelin; Kolberg, Sjur

2010-04-01

SummaryThree statistical models for the forecast errors for inflow into the Langvatn reservoir in Northern Norway have been constructed and tested according to the agreement between (i) the forecast distribution and the observations and (ii) median values of the forecast distribution and the observations. For the first model observed and forecasted inflows were transformed by the Box-Cox transformation before a first order auto-regressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. The parameters were conditioned on weather classes. In the second model the Normal Quantile Transformation (NQT) was applied on observed and forecasted inflows before a similar first order auto-regressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. For the third model positive and negative errors were modeled separately. The errors were first NQT-transformed before conditioning the mean error values on climate, forecasted inflow and yesterday's error. To test the three models we applied three criterions: we wanted (a) the forecast distribution to be reliable; (b) the forecast intervals to be narrow; (c) the median values of the forecast distribution to be close to the observed values. Models 1 and 2 gave almost identical results. The median values improved the forecast with Nash-Sutcliffe R eff increasing from 0.77 for the original forecast to 0.87 for the corrected forecasts. Models 1 and 2 over-estimated the forecast intervals but gave the narrowest intervals. Their main drawback was that the distributions are less reliable than Model 3. For Model 3 the median values did not fit well since the auto-correlation was not accounted for. Since Model 3 did not benefit from the potential variance reduction that lies in bias estimation and removal it gave on average wider forecasts intervals than the two other models. At the same time Model 3 on average slightly under-estimated the forecast intervals, probably explained by the use of average measures to evaluate the fit.

The Errors of Our Ways: Understanding Error Representations in Cerebellar-Dependent Motor Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Popa, Laurentiu S; Streng, Martha L; Hewitt, Angela L; Ebner, Timothy J

2016-04-01

The cerebellum is essential for error-driven motor learning and is strongly implicated in detecting and correcting for motor errors. Therefore, elucidating how motor errors are represented in the cerebellum is essential in understanding cerebellar function, in general, and its role in motor learning, in particular. This review examines how motor errors are encoded in the cerebellar cortex in the context of a forward internal model that generates predictions about the upcoming movement and drives learning and adaptation. In this framework, sensory prediction errors, defined as the discrepancy between the predicted consequences of motor commands and the sensory feedback, are crucial for both on-line movement control and motor learning. While many studies support the dominant view that motor errors are encoded in the complex spike discharge of Purkinje cells, others have failed to relate complex spike activity with errors. Given these limitations, we review recent findings in the monkey showing that complex spike modulation is not necessarily required for motor learning or for simple spike adaptation. Also, new results demonstrate that the simple spike discharge provides continuous error signals that both lead and lag the actual movements in time, suggesting errors are encoded as both an internal prediction of motor commands and the actual sensory feedback. These dual error representations have opposing effects on simple spike discharge, consistent with the signals needed to generate sensory prediction errors used to update a forward internal model.

CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, James H., Jr.

2012-01-01

Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and

Predicting diagnostic error in Radiology via eye-tracking and image analytics: Application in mammography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Voisin, Sophie [ORNL; Pinto, Frank M [ORNL; Morin-Ducote, Garnetta [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Hudson, Kathy [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Tourassi, Georgia [ORNL

2013-01-01

Purpose: The primary aim of the present study was to test the feasibility of predicting diagnostic errors in mammography by merging radiologists gaze behavior and image characteristics. A secondary aim was to investigate group-based and personalized predictive models for radiologists of variable experience levels. Methods: The study was performed for the clinical task of assessing the likelihood of malignancy of mammographic masses. Eye-tracking data and diagnostic decisions for 40 cases were acquired from 4 Radiology residents and 2 breast imaging experts as part of an IRB-approved pilot study. Gaze behavior features were extracted from the eye-tracking data. Computer-generated and BIRADs images features were extracted from the images. Finally, machine learning algorithms were used to merge gaze and image features for predicting human error. Feature selection was thoroughly explored to determine the relative contribution of the various features. Group-based and personalized user modeling was also investigated. Results: Diagnostic error can be predicted reliably by merging gaze behavior characteristics from the radiologist and textural characteristics from the image under review. Leveraging data collected from multiple readers produced a reasonable group model (AUC=0.79). Personalized user modeling was far more accurate for the more experienced readers (average AUC of 0.837 0.029) than for the less experienced ones (average AUC of 0.667 0.099). The best performing group-based and personalized predictive models involved combinations of both gaze and image features. Conclusions: Diagnostic errors in mammography can be predicted reliably by leveraging the radiologists gaze behavior and image content.

Thresholds for human detection of patient setup errors in digitally reconstructed portal images of prostate fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phillips, Brooke L.; Jiroutek, Michael R.; Tracton, Gregg; Elfervig, Michelle; Muller, Keith E.; Chaney, Edward L.

2002-01-01

-measures analysis of variance. Results: The thresholds of detectability averaged over all observers were approximately 2.5 mm for in-plane translations, 1.6 deg. for in-plane rotations, 1 deg. for out-of-plane rotations, and 8% change in magnification for out-of-plane translations along the central axis. When one inexperienced observer is excluded, the average threshold for change in magnification is 5%. Experienced observers tended to perform better, but differences between groups were not statistically significant. Thresholds were computed as averages over all observers. Because of the broad range of observer capabilities, some detection tasks were too difficult for some observers, leading to missing threshold values in our data analysis. The missing values were excluded from computation of the average thresholds reported above. The effect of the missing values is to bias the average values toward the best human performance. Conclusions: Under favorable conditions, humans can detect small errors in setup geometry. The thresholds for error detection reported in this study are believed to represent rigorous but reasonable benchmarks that can be incorporated into studies evaluating algorithms for computer-assisted detection of setup errors in electronic portal images

Ocean tides in GRACE monthly averaged gravity fields

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Per

2003-01-01

The GRACE mission will map the Earth's gravity fields and its variations with unprecedented accuracy during its 5-year lifetime. Unless ocean tide signals and their load upon the solid earth are removed from the GRACE data, their long period aliases obscure more subtle climate signals which GRACE...... aims at. In this analysis the results of Knudsen and Andersen (2002) have been verified using actual post-launch orbit parameter of the GRACE mission. The current ocean tide models are not accurate enough to correct GRACE data at harmonic degrees lower than 47. The accumulated tidal errors may affect...... the GRACE data up to harmonic degree 60. A study of the revised alias frequencies confirm that the ocean tide errors will not cancel in the GRACE monthly averaged temporal gravity fields. The S-2 and the K-2 terms have alias frequencies much longer than 30 days, so they remain almost unreduced...

Sensation seeking and error processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Ya; Sheng, Wenbin; Xu, Jing; Zhang, Yuanyuan

2014-09-01

Sensation seeking is defined by a strong need for varied, novel, complex, and intense stimulation, and a willingness to take risks for such experience. Several theories propose that the insensitivity to negative consequences incurred by risks is one of the hallmarks of sensation-seeking behaviors. In this study, we investigated the time course of error processing in sensation seeking by recording event-related potentials (ERPs) while high and low sensation seekers performed an Eriksen flanker task. Whereas there were no group differences in ERPs to correct trials, sensation seeking was associated with a blunted error-related negativity (ERN), which was female-specific. Further, different subdimensions of sensation seeking were related to ERN amplitude differently. These findings indicate that the relationship between sensation seeking and error processing is sex-specific. Copyright © 2014 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Applying modern error theory to the problem of missed injuries in trauma.

Science.gov (United States)

Clarke, D L; Gouveia, J; Thomson, S R; Muckart, D J J

2008-06-01

Modern theory of human error has helped reduce the incidence of adverse events in commercial aviation. It remains unclear whether these lessons are applicable to adverse events in trauma surgery. Missed injuries in a large metropolitan surgical service were prospectively audited and analyzed using a modern error taxonomy to define its applicability to trauma. A prospective database of all patients who experienced a missed injury during a 6-month period in a busy surgical service was maintained from July 2006. A missed injury was defined as one that escaped detection from primary assessment to operative exploration. Each missed injury was recorded and categorized. The clinical significance of the error and the level of physician responsible was documented. Errors were divided into planning or execution errors, acts of omission or commission, or violations, slips, and lapses. A total of 1,024 trauma patients were treated by the surgical services over the 6-month period from July to December 2006 in Pietermaritzburg. Thirty-four patients (2.5%) with missed injuries were identified during this period. There were 29 men and 5 women with an average age of 29 years (range: 21-67 years). In 14 patients, errors were related to inadequate clinical assessment. In 11 patients errors involved the misinterpretation of, or failure to respond to radiological imaging. There were 9 cases in which an injury was missed during surgical exploration. Overall mortality was 27% (9 patients). In 5 cases death was directly attributable to the missed injury. The level of the physicians making the error was consultant surgeon (4 cases), resident in training (15 cases), career medical officer (2 cases), referring doctor (6 cases). Missed injuries are uncommon and are made by all grades of staff. They are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Understanding the pattern of these errors may help develop error-reduction strategies. Current taxonomies help in understanding the error

Patient safety incident reports related to traditional Japanese Kampo medicines: medication errors and adverse drug events in a university hospital for a ten-year period.

Science.gov (United States)

Shimada, Yutaka; Fujimoto, Makoto; Nogami, Tatsuya; Watari, Hidetoshi; Kitahara, Hideyuki; Misawa, Hiroki; Kimbara, Yoshiyuki

2017-12-21

Kampo medicine is traditional Japanese medicine, which originated in ancient traditional Chinese medicine, but was introduced and developed uniquely in Japan. Today, Kampo medicines are integrated into the Japanese national health care system. Incident reporting systems are currently being widely used to collect information about patient safety incidents that occur in hospitals. However, no investigations have been conducted regarding patient safety incident reports related to Kampo medicines. The aim of this study was to survey and analyse incident reports related to Kampo medicines in a Japanese university hospital to improve future patient safety. We selected incident reports related to Kampo medicines filed in Toyama University Hospital from May 2007 to April 2017, and investigated them in terms of medication errors and adverse drug events. Out of 21,324 total incident reports filed in the 10-year survey period, we discovered 108 Kampo medicine-related incident reports. However, five cases were redundantly reported; thus, the number of actual incidents was 103. Of those, 99 incidents were classified as medication errors (77 administration errors, 15 dispensing errors, and 7 prescribing errors), and four were adverse drug events, namely Kampo medicine-induced interstitial pneumonia. The Kampo medicine (crude drug) that was thought to induce interstitial pneumonia in all four cases was Scutellariae Radix, which is consistent with past reports. According to the incident severity classification system recommended by the National University Hospital Council of Japan, of the 99 medication errors, 10 incidents were classified as level 0 (an error occurred, but the patient was not affected) and 89 incidents were level 1 (an error occurred that affected the patient, but did not cause harm). Of the four adverse drug events, two incidents were classified as level 2 (patient was transiently harmed, but required no treatment), and two incidents were level 3b (patient was

Modeling coherent errors in quantum error correction

Science.gov (United States)

Greenbaum, Daniel; Dutton, Zachary

2018-01-01

Analysis of quantum error correcting codes is typically done using a stochastic, Pauli channel error model for describing the noise on physical qubits. However, it was recently found that coherent errors (systematic rotations) on physical data qubits result in both physical and logical error rates that differ significantly from those predicted by a Pauli model. Here we examine the accuracy of the Pauli approximation for noise containing coherent errors (characterized by a rotation angle ɛ) under the repetition code. We derive an analytic expression for the logical error channel as a function of arbitrary code distance d and concatenation level n, in the small error limit. We find that coherent physical errors result in logical errors that are partially coherent and therefore non-Pauli. However, the coherent part of the logical error is negligible at fewer than {ε }-({dn-1)} error correction cycles when the decoder is optimized for independent Pauli errors, thus providing a regime of validity for the Pauli approximation. Above this number of correction cycles, the persistent coherent logical error will cause logical failure more quickly than the Pauli model would predict, and this may need to be combated with coherent suppression methods at the physical level or larger codes.

The relative impact of sizing errors on steam generator tube failure probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cizelj, L.; Dvorsek, T.

1998-01-01

The Outside Diameter Stress Corrosion Cracking (ODSCC) at tube support plates is currently the major degradation mechanism affecting the steam generator tubes made of Inconel 600. This caused development and licensing of degradation specific maintenance approaches, which addressed two main failure modes of the degraded piping: tube rupture; and excessive leakage through degraded tubes. A methodology aiming at assessing the efficiency of a given set of possible maintenance approaches has already been proposed by the authors. It pointed out better performance of the degradation specific over generic approaches in (1) lower probability of single and multiple steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), (2) lower estimated accidental leak rates and (3) less tubes plugged. A sensitivity analysis was also performed pointing out the relative contributions of uncertain input parameters to the tube rupture probabilities. The dominant contribution was assigned to the uncertainties inherent to the regression models used to correlate the defect size and tube burst pressure. The uncertainties, which can be estimated from the in-service inspections, are further analysed in this paper. The defect growth was found to have significant and to some extent unrealistic impact on the probability of single tube rupture. Since the defect growth estimates were based on the past inspection records they strongly depend on the sizing errors. Therefore, an attempt was made to filter out the sizing errors and to arrive at more realistic estimates of the defect growth. The impact of different assumptions regarding sizing errors on the tube rupture probability was studied using a realistic numerical example. The data used is obtained from a series of inspection results from Krsko NPP with 2 Westinghouse D-4 steam generators. The results obtained are considered useful in safety assessment and maintenance of affected steam generators. (author)

Friendship at work and error disclosure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hsiao-Yen Mao

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Organizations rely on contextual factors to promote employee disclosure of self-made errors, which induces a resource dilemma (i.e., disclosure entails costing one's own resources to bring others resources and a friendship dilemma (i.e., disclosure is seemingly easier through friendship, yet the cost of friendship is embedded. This study proposes that friendship at work enhances error disclosure and uses conservation of resources theory as underlying explanation. A three-wave survey collected data from 274 full-time employees with a variety of occupational backgrounds. Empirical results indicated that friendship enhanced error disclosure partially through relational mechanisms of employees’ attitudes toward coworkers (i.e., employee engagement and of coworkers’ attitudes toward employees (i.e., perceived social worth. Such effects hold when controlling for established predictors of error disclosure. This study expands extant perspectives on employee error and the theoretical lenses used to explain the influence of friendship at work. We propose that, while promoting error disclosure through both contextual and relational approaches, organizations should be vigilant about potential incongruence.

Prediction of human errors by maladaptive changes in event-related brain networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eichele, T.; Debener, S.; Calhoun, V.D.; Specht, K.; Engel, A.K.; Hugdahl, K.; Cramon, D.Y. von; Ullsperger, M.

2008-01-01

Humans engaged in monotonous tasks are susceptible to occasional errors that may lead to serious consequences, but little is known about brain activity patterns preceding errors. Using functional Mill and applying independent component analysis followed by deconvolution of hemodynamic responses, we

The surveillance error grid.

Science.gov (United States)

Klonoff, David C; Lias, Courtney; Vigersky, Robert; Clarke, William; Parkes, Joan Lee; Sacks, David B; Kirkman, M Sue; Kovatchev, Boris

2014-07-01

Currently used error grids for assessing clinical accuracy of blood glucose monitors are based on out-of-date medical practices. Error grids have not been widely embraced by regulatory agencies for clearance of monitors, but this type of tool could be useful for surveillance of the performance of cleared products. Diabetes Technology Society together with representatives from the Food and Drug Administration, the American Diabetes Association, the Endocrine Society, and the Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation, and representatives of academia, industry, and government, have developed a new error grid, called the surveillance error grid (SEG) as a tool to assess the degree of clinical risk from inaccurate blood glucose (BG) monitors. A total of 206 diabetes clinicians were surveyed about the clinical risk of errors of measured BG levels by a monitor. The impact of such errors on 4 patient scenarios was surveyed. Each monitor/reference data pair was scored and color-coded on a graph per its average risk rating. Using modeled data representative of the accuracy of contemporary meters, the relationships between clinical risk and monitor error were calculated for the Clarke error grid (CEG), Parkes error grid (PEG), and SEG. SEG action boundaries were consistent across scenarios, regardless of whether the patient was type 1 or type 2 or using insulin or not. No significant differences were noted between responses of adult/pediatric or 4 types of clinicians. Although small specific differences in risk boundaries between US and non-US clinicians were noted, the panel felt they did not justify separate grids for these 2 types of clinicians. The data points of the SEG were classified in 15 zones according to their assigned level of risk, which allowed for comparisons with the classic CEG and PEG. Modeled glucose monitor data with realistic self-monitoring of blood glucose errors derived from meter testing experiments plotted on the SEG when compared to

Errors in causal inference: an organizational schema for systematic error and random error.

Science.gov (United States)

Suzuki, Etsuji; Tsuda, Toshihide; Mitsuhashi, Toshiharu; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Yamamoto, Eiji

2016-11-01

To provide an organizational schema for systematic error and random error in estimating causal measures, aimed at clarifying the concept of errors from the perspective of causal inference. We propose to divide systematic error into structural error and analytic error. With regard to random error, our schema shows its four major sources: nondeterministic counterfactuals, sampling variability, a mechanism that generates exposure events and measurement variability. Structural error is defined from the perspective of counterfactual reasoning and divided into nonexchangeability bias (which comprises confounding bias and selection bias) and measurement bias. Directed acyclic graphs are useful to illustrate this kind of error. Nonexchangeability bias implies a lack of "exchangeability" between the selected exposed and unexposed groups. A lack of exchangeability is not a primary concern of measurement bias, justifying its separation from confounding bias and selection bias. Many forms of analytic errors result from the small-sample properties of the estimator used and vanish asymptotically. Analytic error also results from wrong (misspecified) statistical models and inappropriate statistical methods. Our organizational schema is helpful for understanding the relationship between systematic error and random error from a previously less investigated aspect, enabling us to better understand the relationship between accuracy, validity, and precision. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Incorporating measurement error in n = 1 psychological autoregressive modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Schuurman, Noémi K.; Houtveen, Jan H.; Hamaker, Ellen L.

2015-01-01

Measurement error is omnipresent in psychological data. However, the vast majority of applications of autoregressive time series analyses in psychology do not take measurement error into account. Disregarding measurement error when it is present in the data results in a bias of the autoregressive parameters. We discuss two models that take measurement error into account: An autoregressive model with a white noise term (AR+WN), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. In a simulation study we compare the parameter recovery performance of these models, and compare this performance for both a Bayesian and frequentist approach. We find that overall, the AR+WN model performs better. Furthermore, we find that for realistic (i.e., small) sample sizes, psychological research would benefit from a Bayesian approach in fitting these models. Finally, we illustrate the effect of disregarding measurement error in an AR(1) model by means of an empirical application on mood data in women. We find that, depending on the person, approximately 30–50% of the total variance was due to measurement error, and that disregarding this measurement error results in a substantial underestimation of the autoregressive parameters. PMID:26283988

SU-E-T-195: Gantry Angle Dependency of MLC Leaf Position Error

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ju, S; Hong, C; Kim, M; Chung, K; Kim, J; Han, Y; Ahn, S; Chung, S; Shin, E; Shin, J; Kim, H; Kim, D; Choi, D [Department of Radiation Oncology, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2014-06-01

Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the gantry angle dependency of the multileaf collimator (MLC) leaf position error. Methods: An automatic MLC quality assurance system (AutoMLCQA) was developed to evaluate the gantry angle dependency of the MLC leaf position error using an electronic portal imaging device (EPID). To eliminate the EPID position error due to gantry rotation, we designed a reference maker (RM) that could be inserted into the wedge mount. After setting up the EPID, a reference image was taken of the RM using an open field. Next, an EPID-based picket-fence test (PFT) was performed without the RM. These procedures were repeated at every 45° intervals of the gantry angle. A total of eight reference images and PFT image sets were analyzed using in-house software. The average MLC leaf position error was calculated at five pickets (-10, -5, 0, 5, and 10 cm) in accordance with general PFT guidelines using in-house software. This test was carried out for four linear accelerators. Results: The average MLC leaf position errors were within the set criterion of <1 mm (actual errors ranged from -0.7 to 0.8 mm) for all gantry angles, but significant gantry angle dependency was observed in all machines. The error was smaller at a gantry angle of 0° but increased toward the positive direction with gantry angle increments in the clockwise direction. The error reached a maximum value at a gantry angle of 90° and then gradually decreased until 180°. In the counter-clockwise rotation of the gantry, the same pattern of error was observed but the error increased in the negative direction. Conclusion: The AutoMLCQA system was useful to evaluate the MLC leaf position error for various gantry angles without the EPID position error. The Gantry angle dependency should be considered during MLC leaf position error analysis.

Laplace-Fourier-domain dispersion analysis of an average derivative optimal scheme for scalar-wave equation

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jing-Bo

2014-06-01

By using low-frequency components of the damped wavefield, Laplace-Fourier-domain full waveform inversion (FWI) can recover a long-wavelength velocity model from the original undamped seismic data lacking low-frequency information. Laplace-Fourier-domain modelling is an important foundation of Laplace-Fourier-domain FWI. Based on the numerical phase velocity and the numerical attenuation propagation velocity, a method for performing Laplace-Fourier-domain numerical dispersion analysis is developed in this paper. This method is applied to an average-derivative optimal scheme. The results show that within the relative error of 1 per cent, the Laplace-Fourier-domain average-derivative optimal scheme requires seven gridpoints per smallest wavelength and smallest pseudo-wavelength for both equal and unequal directional sampling intervals. In contrast, the classical five-point scheme requires 23 gridpoints per smallest wavelength and smallest pseudo-wavelength to achieve the same accuracy. Numerical experiments demonstrate the theoretical analysis.

Investigating Medication Errors in Educational Health Centers of Kermanshah

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohsen Mohammadi

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Background and objectives : Medication errors can be a threat to the safety of patients. Preventing medication errors requires reporting and investigating such errors. The present study was conducted with the purpose of investigating medication errors in educational health centers of Kermanshah. Material and Methods: The present research is an applied, descriptive-analytical study and is done as a survey. Error Report of Ministry of Health and Medical Education was used for data collection. The population of the study included all the personnel (nurses, doctors, paramedics of educational health centers of Kermanshah. Among them, those who reported the committed errors were selected as the sample of the study. The data analysis was done using descriptive statistics and Chi 2 Test using SPSS version 18. Results: The findings of the study showed that most errors were related to not using medication properly, the least number of errors were related to improper dose, and the majority of errors occurred in the morning. The most frequent reason for errors was staff negligence and the least frequent was the lack of knowledge. Conclusion: The health care system should create an environment for detecting and reporting errors by the personnel, recognizing related factors causing errors, training the personnel and create a good working environment and standard workload.

SU-E-P-36: Evaluation of MLC Positioning Errors in Dynamic IMRT Treatments by Analyzing Dynalog Files

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olasolo, J; Pellejero, S; Gracia, M; Gallardo, N; Martin, M; Lozares, S; Maneru, F; Bragado, L; Miquelez, S; Rubio, A

2015-01-01

Purpose: To assess the accuracy of MLC positioning in Varian linear accelerator, in dynamic IMRT technique, from the analysis of dynalog files generated by the MLC controller. Methods: In Clinac accelerators (pre-TrueBeam technology), control system has an approximately 50ms delay (one control cycle time). Then, the system compares the measured position to the planned position corresponding to the next control cycle. As it has been confirmed by Varian technical support, this effect causes that measured positions appear in dynalogs one cycle out of phase with respect to the planned positions. Around 9000 dynalogs have been analyzed, coming from the three linear accelerators of our center (one Trilogy and two Clinac 21EX) equipped with a Millennium 120 MLC. In order to compare our results to recent publications, leaf positioning errors (RMS and 95th percentile) are calculated with and without delay effect. Dynalogs have been analyzed using a in-house Matlab software. Results: The RMS errors were 0.341, 0.339 and 0.348mm for each Linac; being the average error 0.343 mm. The 95th percentiles of the error were 0.617, 0.607 and 0.625; with an average of 0.617mm. A recent multi-institution study carried out by Kerns et al. found a mean leaf RMS error of 0.32mm and a 95th percentile error value of 0.64mm.Without delay effect, mean leaf RMS errors obtained were 0.040, 0.042 and 0.038mm for each treatment machine; being the average 0.040mm. The 95th percentile error values obtained were 0.057, 0.058 and 0.054 mm, with an average of 0.056mm. Conclusion: Results obtained for the mean leaf RMS error and the mean 95th percentile were consistent with the multi-institution study. Calculated error statistics with delay effect are significantly larger due to the speed proportional and systematic leaf offset. Consequently it is proposed to correct this effect in dynalogs analysis to determine the MLC performance

Passport officers' errors in face matching.

Science.gov (United States)

White, David; Kemp, Richard I; Jenkins, Rob; Matheson, Michael; Burton, A Mike

2014-01-01

Photo-ID is widely used in security settings, despite research showing that viewers find it very difficult to match unfamiliar faces. Here we test participants with specialist experience and training in the task: passport-issuing officers. First, we ask officers to compare photos to live ID-card bearers, and observe high error rates, including 14% false acceptance of 'fraudulent' photos. Second, we compare passport officers with a set of student participants, and find equally poor levels of accuracy in both groups. Finally, we observe that passport officers show no performance advantage over the general population on a standardised face-matching task. Across all tasks, we observe very large individual differences: while average performance of passport staff was poor, some officers performed very accurately--though this was not related to length of experience or training. We propose that improvements in security could be made by emphasising personnel selection.

Passport officers' errors in face matching.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David White

Full Text Available Photo-ID is widely used in security settings, despite research showing that viewers find it very difficult to match unfamiliar faces. Here we test participants with specialist experience and training in the task: passport-issuing officers. First, we ask officers to compare photos to live ID-card bearers, and observe high error rates, including 14% false acceptance of 'fraudulent' photos. Second, we compare passport officers with a set of student participants, and find equally poor levels of accuracy in both groups. Finally, we observe that passport officers show no performance advantage over the general population on a standardised face-matching task. Across all tasks, we observe very large individual differences: while average performance of passport staff was poor, some officers performed very accurately--though this was not related to length of experience or training. We propose that improvements in security could be made by emphasising personnel selection.

Multihop Relaying over IM/DD FSO Systems with Pointing Errors

KAUST Repository

Zedini, Emna

2015-10-19

In this paper, the end-to-end performance of a multihop free-space optical system with amplify-and-forward channelstate- information-assisted or fixed-gain relays using intensity modulation with direct detection technique over Gamma-Gamma turbulence fading with pointing error impairments is studied. More specifically, novel closed-form results for the probability density function and the cumulative distribution function of the end-to-end signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) are derived in terms of the Fox’s H function. Based on these formulas, closed-form bounds for the outage probability, the average bit-error rate (BER) of on-off keying modulation scheme, the moments, and the ergodic capacity are presented. Furthermore, using the momentsbased approach, tight asymptotic approximations at high and low average SNR regimes are derived for the ergodic capacity in terms of simple elementary functions. The obtained results indicate that the overall system performance degrades with an increase of the number of hops. The effects of the atmospheric turbulence conditions and the pointing error are also quantified. All the analytical results are verified via computer-based Monte- Carlo simulations.

Multihop Relaying over IM/DD FSO Systems with Pointing Errors

KAUST Repository

Zedini, Emna; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2015-01-01

In this paper, the end-to-end performance of a multihop free-space optical system with amplify-and-forward channelstate- information-assisted or fixed-gain relays using intensity modulation with direct detection technique over Gamma-Gamma turbulence fading with pointing error impairments is studied. More specifically, novel closed-form results for the probability density function and the cumulative distribution function of the end-to-end signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) are derived in terms of the Fox’s H function. Based on these formulas, closed-form bounds for the outage probability, the average bit-error rate (BER) of on-off keying modulation scheme, the moments, and the ergodic capacity are presented. Furthermore, using the momentsbased approach, tight asymptotic approximations at high and low average SNR regimes are derived for the ergodic capacity in terms of simple elementary functions. The obtained results indicate that the overall system performance degrades with an increase of the number of hops. The effects of the atmospheric turbulence conditions and the pointing error are also quantified. All the analytical results are verified via computer-based Monte- Carlo simulations.

Non-invasive assessment of distribution volume ratios and binding potential: tissue heterogeneity and interindividually averaged time-activity curves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reimold, M.; Mueller-Schauenburg, W.; Dohmen, B.M.; Bares, R. [Department of Nuclear Medicine, University of Tuebingen, Otfried-Mueller-Strasse 14, 72076, Tuebingen (Germany); Becker, G.A. [Nuclear Medicine, University of Leipzig, Leipzig (Germany); Reischl, G. [Radiopharmacy, University of Tuebingen, Tuebingen (Germany)

2004-04-01

Due to the stochastic nature of radioactive decay, any measurement of radioactivity concentration requires spatial averaging. In pharmacokinetic analysis of time-activity curves (TAC), such averaging over heterogeneous tissues may introduce a systematic error (heterogeneity error) but may also improve the accuracy and precision of parameter estimation. In addition to spatial averaging (inevitable due to limited scanner resolution and intended in ROI analysis), interindividual averaging may theoretically be beneficial, too. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of such averaging on the binding potential (BP) calculated with Logan's non-invasive graphical analysis and the ''simplified reference tissue method'' (SRTM) proposed by Lammertsma and Hume, on the basis of simulated and measured positron emission tomography data [{sup 11}C]d-threo-methylphenidate (dMP) and [{sup 11}C]raclopride (RAC) PET. dMP was not quantified with SRTM since the low k {sub 2} (washout rate constant from the first tissue compartment) introduced a high noise sensitivity. Even for considerably different shapes of TAC (dMP PET in parkinsonian patients and healthy controls, [{sup 11}C]raclopride in patients with and without haloperidol medication) and a high variance in the rate constants (e.g. simulated standard deviation of K {sub 1}=25%), the BP obtained from average TAC was close to the mean BP (<5%). However, unfavourably distributed parameters, especially a correlated large variance in two or more parameters, may lead to larger errors. In Monte Carlo simulations, interindividual averaging before quantification reduced the variance from the SRTM (beyond a critical signal to noise ratio) and the bias in Logan's method. Interindividual averaging may further increase accuracy when there is an error term in the reference tissue assumption E=DV {sub 2}-DV ' (DV {sub 2} = distribution volume of the first tissue compartment, DV &apos

Dosimetric Implications of Residual Tracking Errors During Robotic SBRT of Liver Metastases

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chan, Mark [Department for Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Schleswig-Holstein, Kiel (Germany); Tuen Mun Hospital, Hong Kong (China); Grehn, Melanie [Department for Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck (Germany); Institute for Robotics and Cognitive Systems, University of Lübeck, Lübeck (Germany); Cremers, Florian [Department for Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck (Germany); Siebert, Frank-Andre [Department for Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Schleswig-Holstein, Kiel (Germany); Wurster, Stefan [Saphir Radiosurgery Center Northern Germany, Güstrow (Germany); Department for Radiation Oncology, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald (Germany); Huttenlocher, Stefan [Saphir Radiosurgery Center Northern Germany, Güstrow (Germany); Dunst, Jürgen [Department for Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Schleswig-Holstein, Kiel (Germany); Department for Radiation Oncology, University Clinic Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark); Hildebrandt, Guido [Department for Radiation Oncology, University Medicine Rostock, Rostock (Germany); Schweikard, Achim [Institute for Robotics and Cognitive Systems, University of Lübeck, Lübeck (Germany); Rades, Dirk [Department for Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck (Germany); Ernst, Floris [Institute for Robotics and Cognitive Systems, University of Lübeck, Lübeck (Germany); and others

2017-03-15

Purpose: Although the metric precision of robotic stereotactic body radiation therapy in the presence of breathing motion is widely known, we investigated the dosimetric implications of breathing phase–related residual tracking errors. Methods and Materials: In 24 patients (28 liver metastases) treated with the CyberKnife, we recorded the residual correlation, prediction, and rotational tracking errors from 90 fractions and binned them into 10 breathing phases. The average breathing phase errors were used to shift and rotate the clinical tumor volume (CTV) and planning target volume (PTV) for each phase to calculate a pseudo 4-dimensional error dose distribution for comparison with the original planned dose distribution. Results: The median systematic directional correlation, prediction, and absolute aggregate rotation errors were 0.3 mm (range, 0.1-1.3 mm), 0.01 mm (range, 0.00-0.05 mm), and 1.5° (range, 0.4°-2.7°), respectively. Dosimetrically, 44%, 81%, and 92% of all voxels differed by less than 1%, 3%, and 5% of the planned local dose, respectively. The median coverage reduction for the PTV was 1.1% (range in coverage difference, −7.8% to +0.8%), significantly depending on correlation (P=.026) and rotational (P=.005) error. With a 3-mm PTV margin, the median coverage change for the CTV was 0.0% (range, −1.0% to +5.4%), not significantly depending on any investigated parameter. In 42% of patients, the 3-mm margin did not fully compensate for the residual tracking errors, resulting in a CTV coverage reduction of 0.1% to 1.0%. Conclusions: For liver tumors treated with robotic stereotactic body radiation therapy, a safety margin of 3 mm is not always sufficient to cover all residual tracking errors. Dosimetrically, this translates into only small CTV coverage reductions.

Dosimetric Implications of Residual Tracking Errors During Robotic SBRT of Liver Metastases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chan, Mark; Grehn, Melanie; Cremers, Florian; Siebert, Frank-Andre; Wurster, Stefan; Huttenlocher, Stefan; Dunst, Jürgen; Hildebrandt, Guido; Schweikard, Achim; Rades, Dirk; Ernst, Floris

2017-01-01

Purpose: Although the metric precision of robotic stereotactic body radiation therapy in the presence of breathing motion is widely known, we investigated the dosimetric implications of breathing phase–related residual tracking errors. Methods and Materials: In 24 patients (28 liver metastases) treated with the CyberKnife, we recorded the residual correlation, prediction, and rotational tracking errors from 90 fractions and binned them into 10 breathing phases. The average breathing phase errors were used to shift and rotate the clinical tumor volume (CTV) and planning target volume (PTV) for each phase to calculate a pseudo 4-dimensional error dose distribution for comparison with the original planned dose distribution. Results: The median systematic directional correlation, prediction, and absolute aggregate rotation errors were 0.3 mm (range, 0.1-1.3 mm), 0.01 mm (range, 0.00-0.05 mm), and 1.5° (range, 0.4°-2.7°), respectively. Dosimetrically, 44%, 81%, and 92% of all voxels differed by less than 1%, 3%, and 5% of the planned local dose, respectively. The median coverage reduction for the PTV was 1.1% (range in coverage difference, −7.8% to +0.8%), significantly depending on correlation (P=.026) and rotational (P=.005) error. With a 3-mm PTV margin, the median coverage change for the CTV was 0.0% (range, −1.0% to +5.4%), not significantly depending on any investigated parameter. In 42% of patients, the 3-mm margin did not fully compensate for the residual tracking errors, resulting in a CTV coverage reduction of 0.1% to 1.0%. Conclusions: For liver tumors treated with robotic stereotactic body radiation therapy, a safety margin of 3 mm is not always sufficient to cover all residual tracking errors. Dosimetrically, this translates into only small CTV coverage reductions.

Long-Term Prediction of Emergency Department Revenue and Visitor Volume Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chieh-Fan Chen

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.

Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback for Time Series Forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Waheeb, Waddah; Ghazali, Rozaida; Herawan, Tutut

2016-01-01

Time series forecasting has gained much attention due to its many practical applications. Higher-order neural network with recurrent feedback is a powerful technique that has been used successfully for time series forecasting. It maintains fast learning and the ability to learn the dynamics of the time series over time. Network output feedback is the most common recurrent feedback for many recurrent neural network models. However, not much attention has been paid to the use of network error feedback instead of network output feedback. In this study, we propose a novel model, called Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback (RPNN-EF) that incorporates higher order terms, recurrence and error feedback. To evaluate the performance of RPNN-EF, we used four univariate time series with different forecasting horizons, namely star brightness, monthly smoothed sunspot numbers, daily Euro/Dollar exchange rate, and Mackey-Glass time-delay differential equation. We compared the forecasting performance of RPNN-EF with the ordinary Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (RPNN) and the Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (DRPNN). Simulation results showed an average 23.34% improvement in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) with respect to RPNN and an average 10.74% improvement with respect to DRPNN. That means that using network errors during training helps enhance the overall forecasting performance for the network.

Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback for Time Series Forecasting.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Waddah Waheeb

Full Text Available Time series forecasting has gained much attention due to its many practical applications. Higher-order neural network with recurrent feedback is a powerful technique that has been used successfully for time series forecasting. It maintains fast learning and the ability to learn the dynamics of the time series over time. Network output feedback is the most common recurrent feedback for many recurrent neural network models. However, not much attention has been paid to the use of network error feedback instead of network output feedback. In this study, we propose a novel model, called Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback (RPNN-EF that incorporates higher order terms, recurrence and error feedback. To evaluate the performance of RPNN-EF, we used four univariate time series with different forecasting horizons, namely star brightness, monthly smoothed sunspot numbers, daily Euro/Dollar exchange rate, and Mackey-Glass time-delay differential equation. We compared the forecasting performance of RPNN-EF with the ordinary Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (RPNN and the Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (DRPNN. Simulation results showed an average 23.34% improvement in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE with respect to RPNN and an average 10.74% improvement with respect to DRPNN. That means that using network errors during training helps enhance the overall forecasting performance for the network.

Benefits of Dominance over Additive Models for the Estimation of Average Effects in the Presence of Dominance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pascal Duenk

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In quantitative genetics, the average effect at a single locus can be estimated by an additive (A model, or an additive plus dominance (AD model. In the presence of dominance, the AD-model is expected to be more accurate, because the A-model falsely assumes that residuals are independent and identically distributed. Our objective was to investigate the accuracy of an estimated average effect (α^ in the presence of dominance, using either a single locus A-model or AD-model. Estimation was based on a finite sample from a large population in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE, and the root mean squared error of α^ was calculated for several broad-sense heritabilities, sample sizes, and sizes of the dominance effect. Results show that with the A-model, both sampling deviations of genotype frequencies from HWE frequencies and sampling deviations of allele frequencies contributed to the error. With the AD-model, only sampling deviations of allele frequencies contributed to the error, provided that all three genotype classes were sampled. In the presence of dominance, the root mean squared error of α^ with the AD-model was always smaller than with the A-model, even when the heritability was less than one. Remarkably, in the absence of dominance, there was no disadvantage of fitting dominance. In conclusion, the AD-model yields more accurate estimates of average effects from a finite sample, because it is more robust against sampling deviations from HWE frequencies than the A-model. Genetic models that include dominance, therefore, yield higher accuracies of estimated average effects than purely additive models when dominance is present.

Shared dosimetry error in epidemiological dose-response analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stram, Daniel O.; Preston, Dale L.; Sokolnikov, Mikhail; Napier, Bruce; Kopecky, Kenneth J.; Boice, John; Beck, Harold; Till, John; Bouville, Andre; Zeeb, Hajo

2015-01-01

Radiation dose reconstruction systems for large-scale epidemiological studies are sophisticated both in providing estimates of dose and in representing dosimetry uncertainty. For example, a computer program was used by the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study to provide 100 realizations of possible dose to study participants. The variation in realizations reflected the range of possible dose for each cohort member consistent with the data on dose determinates in the cohort. Another example is the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2013 which estimates both external and internal exposures and provides multiple realizations of 'possible' dose history to workers given dose determinants. This paper takes up the problem of dealing with complex dosimetry systems that provide multiple realizations of dose in an epidemiologic analysis. In this paper we derive expected scores and the information matrix for a model used widely in radiation epidemiology, namely the linear excess relative risk (ERR) model that allows for a linear dose response (risk in relation to radiation) and distinguishes between modifiers of background rates and of the excess risk due to exposure. We show that treating the mean dose for each individual (calculated by averaging over the realizations) as if it was true dose (ignoring both shared and unshared dosimetry errors) gives asymptotically unbiased estimates (i.e. the score has expectation zero) and valid tests of the null hypothesis that the ERR slope β is zero. Although the score is unbiased the information matrix (and hence the standard errors of the estimate of β) is biased for β≠0 when ignoring errors in dose estimates, and we show how to adjust the information matrix to remove this bias, using the multiple realizations of dose. The use of these methods in the context of several studies including, the Mayak Worker Cohort, and the U.S. Atomic Veterans Study, is discussed

Apologies and Medical Error

Science.gov (United States)

2008-01-01

One way in which physicians can respond to a medical error is to apologize. Apologies—statements that acknowledge an error and its consequences, take responsibility, and communicate regret for having caused harm—can decrease blame, decrease anger, increase trust, and improve relationships. Importantly, apologies also have the potential to decrease the risk of a medical malpractice lawsuit and can help settle claims by patients. Patients indicate they want and expect explanations and apologies after medical errors and physicians indicate they want to apologize. However, in practice, physicians tend to provide minimal information to patients after medical errors and infrequently offer complete apologies. Although fears about potential litigation are the most commonly cited barrier to apologizing after medical error, the link between litigation risk and the practice of disclosure and apology is tenuous. Other barriers might include the culture of medicine and the inherent psychological difficulties in facing one’s mistakes and apologizing for them. Despite these barriers, incorporating apology into conversations between physicians and patients can address the needs of both parties and can play a role in the effective resolution of disputes related to medical error. PMID:18972177

Estimation of genetic connectedness diagnostics based on prediction errors without the prediction error variance-covariance matrix.

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes, John B; Dodds, Ken G; Lee, Michael A

2017-03-02

An important issue in genetic evaluation is the comparability of random effects (breeding values), particularly between pairs of animals in different contemporary groups. This is usually referred to as genetic connectedness. While various measures of connectedness have been proposed in the literature, there is general agreement that the most appropriate measure is some function of the prediction error variance-covariance matrix. However, obtaining the prediction error variance-covariance matrix is computationally demanding for large-scale genetic evaluations. Many alternative statistics have been proposed that avoid the computational cost of obtaining the prediction error variance-covariance matrix, such as counts of genetic links between contemporary groups, gene flow matrices, and functions of the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects. In this paper, we show that a correction to the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects will produce the exact prediction error variance-covariance matrix averaged by contemporary group for univariate models in the presence of single or multiple fixed effects and one random effect. We demonstrate the correction for a series of models and show that approximations to the prediction error matrix based solely on the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects are inappropriate in certain circumstances. Our method allows for the calculation of a connectedness measure based on the prediction error variance-covariance matrix by calculating only the variance-covariance matrix of estimated fixed effects. Since the number of fixed effects in genetic evaluation is usually orders of magnitudes smaller than the number of random effect levels, the computational requirements for our method should be reduced.

Lateral dispersion coefficients as functions of averaging time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheih, C.M.

1980-01-01

Plume dispersion coefficients are discussed in terms of single-particle and relative diffusion, and are investigated as functions of averaging time. To demonstrate the effects of averaging time on the relative importance of various dispersion processes, and observed lateral wind velocity spectrum is used to compute the lateral dispersion coefficients of total, single-particle and relative diffusion for various averaging times and plume travel times. The results indicate that for a 1 h averaging time the dispersion coefficient of a plume can be approximated by single-particle diffusion alone for travel times <250 s and by relative diffusion for longer travel times. Furthermore, it is shown that the power-law formula suggested by Turner for relating pollutant concentrations for other averaging times to the corresponding 15 min average is applicable to the present example only when the averaging time is less than 200 s and the tral time smaller than about 300 s. Since the turbulence spectrum used in the analysis is an observed one, it is hoped that the results could represent many conditions encountered in the atmosphere. However, as the results depend on the form of turbulence spectrum, the calculations are not for deriving a set of specific criteria but for demonstrating the need in discriminating various processes in studies of plume dispersion

Human Error Mechanisms in Complex Work Environments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jens

1988-01-01

will account for most of the action errors observed. In addition, error mechanisms appear to be intimately related to the development of high skill and know-how in a complex work context. This relationship between errors and human adaptation is discussed in detail for individuals and organisations...

Decreasing patient identification band errors by standardizing processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Walley, Susan Chu; Berger, Stephanie; Harris, Yolanda; Gallizzi, Gina; Hayes, Leslie

2013-04-01

Patient identification (ID) bands are an essential component in patient ID. Quality improvement methodology has been applied as a model to reduce ID band errors although previous studies have not addressed standardization of ID bands. Our specific aim was to decrease ID band errors by 50% in a 12-month period. The Six Sigma DMAIC (define, measure, analyze, improve, and control) quality improvement model was the framework for this study. ID bands at a tertiary care pediatric hospital were audited from January 2011 to January 2012 with continued audits to June 2012 to confirm the new process was in control. After analysis, the major improvement strategy implemented was standardization of styles of ID bands and labels. Additional interventions included educational initiatives regarding the new ID band processes and disseminating institutional and nursing unit data. A total of 4556 ID bands were audited with a preimprovement ID band error average rate of 9.2%. Significant variation in the ID band process was observed, including styles of ID bands. Interventions were focused on standardization of the ID band and labels. The ID band error rate improved to 5.2% in 9 months (95% confidence interval: 2.5-5.5; P error rates. This decrease in ID band error rates was maintained over the subsequent 8 months.

Errors due to random noise in velocity measurement using incoherent-scatter radar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. J. S. Williams

1996-12-01

Full Text Available The random-noise errors involved in measuring the Doppler shift of an 'incoherent-scatter' spectrum are predicted theoretically for all values of Te/Ti from 1.0 to 3.0. After correction has been made for the effects of convolution during transmission and reception and the additional errors introduced by subtracting the average of the background gates, the rms errors can be expressed by a simple semi-empirical formula. The observed errors are determined from a comparison of simultaneous EISCAT measurements using an identical pulse code on several adjacent frequencies. The plot of observed versus predicted error has a slope of 0.991 and a correlation coefficient of 99.3%. The prediction also agrees well with the mean of the error distribution reported by the standard EISCAT analysis programme.

EPIC: an Error Propagation/Inquiry Code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baker, A.L.

1985-01-01

The use of a computer program EPIC (Error Propagation/Inquiry Code) will be discussed. EPIC calculates the variance of a materials balance closed about a materials balance area (MBA) in a processing plant operated under steady-state conditions. It was designed for use in evaluating the significance of inventory differences in the Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear plants. EPIC rapidly estimates the variance of a materials balance using average plant operating data. The intent is to learn as much as possible about problem areas in a process with simple straightforward calculations assuming a process is running in a steady-state mode. EPIC is designed to be used by plant personnel or others with little computer background. However, the user should be knowledgeable about measurement errors in the system being evaluated and have a limited knowledge of how error terms are combined in error propagation analyses. EPIC contains six variance equations; the appropriate equation is used to calculate the variance at each measurement point. After all of these variances are calculated, the total variance for the MBA is calculated using a simple algebraic sum of variances. The EPIC code runs on any computer that accepts a standard form of the BASIC language. 2 refs., 1 fig., 6 tabs

Invariance and variability in interaction error-related potentials and their consequences for classification

Science.gov (United States)

Abu-Alqumsan, Mohammad; Kapeller, Christoph; Hintermüller, Christoph; Guger, Christoph; Peer, Angelika

2017-12-01

Objective. This paper discusses the invariance and variability in interaction error-related potentials (ErrPs), where a special focus is laid upon the factors of (1) the human mental processing required to assess interface actions (2) time (3) subjects. Approach. Three different experiments were designed as to vary primarily with respect to the mental processes that are necessary to assess whether an interface error has occurred or not. The three experiments were carried out with 11 subjects in a repeated-measures experimental design. To study the effect of time, a subset of the recruited subjects additionally performed the same experiments on different days. Main results. The ErrP variability across the different experiments for the same subjects was found largely attributable to the different mental processing required to assess interface actions. Nonetheless, we found that interaction ErrPs are empirically invariant over time (for the same subject and same interface) and to a lesser extent across subjects (for the same interface). Significance. The obtained results may be used to explain across-study variability of ErrPs, as well as to define guidelines for approaches to the ErrP classifier transferability problem.

Evaluation of rotational set-up errors in patients with thoracic neoplasms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Yanyang; Fu Xiaolong; Xia Bing; Fan Min; Yang Huanjun; Ren Jun; Xu Zhiyong; Jiang Guoliang

2010-01-01

Objective: To assess the rotational set-up errors in patients with thoracic neoplasms. Methods: 224 kilovoltage cone-beam computed tomography (KVCBCT) scans from 20 thoracic tumor patients were evaluated retrospectively. All these patients were involved in the research of 'Evaluation of the residual set-up error for online kilovoltage cone-beam CT guided thoracic tumor radiation'. Rotational set-up errors, including pitch, roll and yaw, were calculated by 'aligning the KVCBCT with the planning CT, using the semi-automatic alignment method. Results: The average rotational set-up errors were -0.28 degree ±1.52 degree, 0.21 degree ± 0.91 degree and 0.27 degree ± 0.78 degree in the left-fight, superior-inferior and anterior-posterior axis, respectively. The maximal rotational errors of pitch, roll and yaw were 3.5 degree, 2.7 degree and 2.2 degree, respectively. After correction for translational set-up errors, no statistically significant changes in rotational error were observed. Conclusions: The rotational set-up errors in patients with thoracic neoplasms were all small in magnitude. Rotational errors may not change after the correction for translational set-up errors alone, which should be evaluated in a larger sample future. (authors)

Human errors in NPP operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheng Jufang

1993-01-01

Based on the operational experiences of nuclear power plants (NPPs), the importance of studying human performance problems is described. Statistical analysis on the significance or frequency of various root-causes and error-modes from a large number of human-error-related events demonstrate that the defects in operation/maintenance procedures, working place factors, communication and training practices are primary root-causes, while omission, transposition, quantitative mistake are the most frequent among the error-modes. Recommendations about domestic research on human performance problem in NPPs are suggested

Practical Insights from Initial Studies Related to Human Error Analysis Project (HEAP)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Follesoe, Knut; Kaarstad, Magnhild; Droeivoldsmo, Asgeir; Hollnagel, Erik; Kirwan; Barry

1996-01-01

This report presents practical insights made from an analysis of the three initial studies in the Human Error Analysis Project (HEAP), and the first study in the US NRC Staffing Project. These practical insights relate to our understanding of diagnosis in Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) emergency scenarios and, in particular, the factors that influence whether a diagnosis will succeed or fail. The insights reported here focus on three inter-related areas: (1) the diagnostic strategies and styles that have been observed in single operator and team-based studies; (2) the qualitative aspects of the key operator support systems, namely VDU interfaces, alarms, training and procedures, that have affected the outcome of diagnosis; and (3) the overall success rates of diagnosis and the error types that have been observed in the various studies. With respect to diagnosis, certain patterns have emerged from the various studies, depending on whether operators were alone or in teams, and on their familiarity with the process. Some aspects of the interface and alarm systems were found to contribute to diagnostic failures while others supported performance and recovery. Similar results were found for training and experience. Furthermore, the availability of procedures did not preclude the need for some diagnosis. With respect to HRA and PSA, it was possible to record the failure types seen in the studies, and in some cases to give crude estimates of the failure likelihood for certain scenarios. Although these insights are interim in nature, they do show the type of information that can be derived from these studies. More importantly, they clarify aspects of our understanding of diagnosis in NPP emergencies, including implications for risk assessment, operator support systems development, and for research into diagnosis in a broader range of fields than the nuclear power industry. (author)

Agreeableness and Conscientiousness as Predictors of University Students' Self/Peer-Assessment Rating Error

Science.gov (United States)

Birjandi, Parviz; Siyyari, Masood

2016-01-01

This paper presents the results of an investigation into the role of two personality traits (i.e. Agreeableness and Conscientiousness from the Big Five personality traits) in predicting rating error in the self-assessment and peer-assessment of composition writing. The average self/peer-rating errors of 136 Iranian English major undergraduates…

A Quantum Theoretical Explanation for Probability Judgment Errors

Science.gov (United States)

Busemeyer, Jerome R.; Pothos, Emmanuel M.; Franco, Riccardo; Trueblood, Jennifer S.

2011-01-01

A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction and disjunction fallacies, averaging effects, unpacking effects, and order effects on inference. On the one hand, quantum theory is similar to other categorization and memory models of cognition in that it relies on vector…

Statistical aspects of autoregressive-moving average models in the assessment of radon mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dunn, J.E.; Henschel, D.B.

1989-01-01

Radon values, as reflected by hourly scintillation counts, seem dominated by major, pseudo-periodic, random fluctuations. This methodological paper reports a moderate degree of success in modeling these data using relatively simple autoregressive-moving average models to assess the effectiveness of radon mitigation techniques in existing housing. While accounting for the natural correlation of successive observations, familiar summary statistics such as steady state estimates, standard errors, confidence limits, and tests of hypothesis are produced. The Box-Jenkins approach is used throughout. In particular, intervention analysis provides an objective means of assessing the effectiveness of an active mitigation measure, such as a fan off/on cycle. Occasionally, failure to declare a significant intervention has suggested a means of remedial action in the data collection procedure

Error begat error: design error analysis and prevention in social infrastructure projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Love, Peter E D; Lopez, Robert; Edwards, David J; Goh, Yang M

2012-09-01

Design errors contribute significantly to cost and schedule growth in social infrastructure projects and to engineering failures, which can result in accidents and loss of life. Despite considerable research that has addressed their error causation in construction projects they still remain prevalent. This paper identifies the underlying conditions that contribute to design errors in social infrastructure projects (e.g. hospitals, education, law and order type buildings). A systemic model of error causation is propagated and subsequently used to develop a learning framework for design error prevention. The research suggests that a multitude of strategies should be adopted in congruence to prevent design errors from occurring and so ensure that safety and project performance are ameliorated. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Cascade of neural events leading from error commission to subsequent awareness revealed using EEG source imaging.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monica Dhar

Full Text Available The goal of the present study was to shed light on the respective contributions of three important action monitoring brain regions (i.e. cingulate cortex, insula, and orbitofrontal cortex during the conscious detection of response errors. To this end, fourteen healthy adults performed a speeded Go/Nogo task comprising Nogo trials of varying levels of difficulty, designed to elicit aware and unaware errors. Error awareness was indicated by participants with a second key press after the target key press. Meanwhile, electromyogram (EMG from the response hand was recorded in addition to high-density scalp electroencephalogram (EEG. In the EMG-locked grand averages, aware errors clearly elicited an error-related negativity (ERN reflecting error detection, and a later error positivity (Pe reflecting conscious error awareness. However, no Pe was recorded after unaware errors or hits. These results are in line with previous studies suggesting that error awareness is associated with generation of the Pe. Source localisation results confirmed that the posterior cingulate motor area was the main generator of the ERN. However, inverse solution results also point to the involvement of the left posterior insula during the time interval of the Pe, and hence error awareness. Moreover, consecutive to this insular activity, the right orbitofrontal cortex (OFC was activated in response to aware and unaware errors but not in response to hits, consistent with the implication of this area in the evaluation of the value of an error. These results reveal a precise sequence of activations in these three non-overlapping brain regions following error commission, enabling a progressive differentiation between aware and unaware errors as a function of time elapsed, thanks to the involvement first of interoceptive or proprioceptive processes (left insula, later leading to the detection of a breach in the prepotent response mode (right OFC.

Medication errors detected in non-traditional databases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Perregaard, Helene; Aronson, Jeffrey K; Dalhoff, Kim

2015-01-01

AIMS: We have looked for medication errors involving the use of low-dose methotrexate, by extracting information from Danish sources other than traditional pharmacovigilance databases. We used the data to establish the relative frequencies of different types of errors. METHODS: We searched four...... errors, whereas knowledge-based errors more often resulted in near misses. CONCLUSIONS: The medication errors in this survey were most often action-based (50%) and knowledge-based (34%), suggesting that greater attention should be paid to education and surveillance of medical personnel who prescribe...

Constrained motion estimation-based error resilient coding for HEVC

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Weihan; Zhang, Yongfei; Li, Bo

2018-04-01

Unreliable communication channels might lead to packet losses and bit errors in the videos transmitted through it, which will cause severe video quality degradation. This is even worse for HEVC since more advanced and powerful motion estimation methods are introduced to further remove the inter-frame dependency and thus improve the coding efficiency. Once a Motion Vector (MV) is lost or corrupted, it will cause distortion in the decoded frame. More importantly, due to motion compensation, the error will propagate along the motion prediction path, accumulate over time, and significantly degrade the overall video presentation quality. To address this problem, we study the problem of encoder-sider error resilient coding for HEVC and propose a constrained motion estimation scheme to mitigate the problem of error propagation to subsequent frames. The approach is achieved by cutting off MV dependencies and limiting the block regions which are predicted by temporal motion vector. The experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively suppress the error propagation caused by bit errors of motion vector and can improve the robustness of the stream in the bit error channels. When the bit error probability is 10-5, an increase of the decoded video quality (PSNR) by up to1.310dB and on average 0.762 dB can be achieved, compared to the reference HEVC.

The orthopaedic error index: development and application of a novel national indicator for assessing the relative safety of hospital care using a cross-sectional approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Panesar, Sukhmeet S; Netuveli, Gopalakrishnan; Carson-Stevens, Andrew; Javad, Sundas; Patel, Bhavesh; Parry, Gareth; Donaldson, Liam J; Sheikh, Aziz

2013-11-21

The Orthopaedic Error Index for hospitals aims to provide the first national assessment of the relative safety of provision of orthopaedic surgery. Cross-sectional study (retrospective analysis of records in a database). The National Reporting and Learning System is the largest national repository of patient-safety incidents in the world with over eight million error reports. It offers a unique opportunity to develop novel approaches to enhancing patient safety, including investigating the relative safety of different healthcare providers and specialties. We extracted all orthopaedic error reports from the system over 1 year (2009-2010). The Orthopaedic Error Index was calculated as a sum of the error propensity and severity. All relevant hospitals offering orthopaedic surgery in England were then ranked by this metric to identify possible outliers that warrant further attention. 155 hospitals reported 48 971 orthopaedic-related patient-safety incidents. The mean Orthopaedic Error Index was 7.09/year (SD 2.72); five hospitals were identified as outliers. Three of these units were specialist tertiary hospitals carrying out complex surgery; the remaining two outlier hospitals had unusually high Orthopaedic Error Indexes: mean 14.46 (SD 0.29) and 15.29 (SD 0.51), respectively. The Orthopaedic Error Index has enabled identification of hospitals that may be putting patients at disproportionate risk of orthopaedic-related iatrogenic harm and which therefore warrant further investigation. It provides the prototype of a summary index of harm to enable surveillance of unsafe care over time across institutions. Further validation and scrutiny of the method will be required to assess its potential to be extended to other hospital specialties in the UK and also internationally to other health systems that have comparable national databases of patient-safety incidents.

Brain negativity as an indicator of predictive error processing: the contribution of visual action effect monitoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Joch, Michael; Hegele, Mathias; Maurer, Heiko; Müller, Hermann; Maurer, Lisa Katharina

2017-07-01

The error (related) negativity (Ne/ERN) is an event-related potential in the electroencephalogram (EEG) correlating with error processing. Its conditions of appearance before terminal external error information suggest that the Ne/ERN is indicative of predictive processes in the evaluation of errors. The aim of the present study was to specifically examine the Ne/ERN in a complex motor task and to particularly rule out other explaining sources of the Ne/ERN aside from error prediction processes. To this end, we focused on the dependency of the Ne/ERN on visual monitoring about the action outcome after movement termination but before result feedback (action effect monitoring). Participants performed a semi-virtual throwing task by using a manipulandum to throw a virtual ball displayed on a computer screen to hit a target object. Visual feedback about the ball flying to the target was masked to prevent action effect monitoring. Participants received a static feedback about the action outcome (850 ms) after each trial. We found a significant negative deflection in the average EEG curves of the error trials peaking at ~250 ms after ball release, i.e., before error feedback. Furthermore, this Ne/ERN signal did not depend on visual ball-flight monitoring after release. We conclude that the Ne/ERN has the potential to indicate error prediction in motor tasks and that it exists even in the absence of action effect monitoring. NEW & NOTEWORTHY In this study, we are separating different kinds of possible contributors to an electroencephalogram (EEG) error correlate (Ne/ERN) in a throwing task. We tested the influence of action effect monitoring on the Ne/ERN amplitude in the EEG. We used a task that allows us to restrict movement correction and action effect monitoring and to control the onset of result feedback. We ascribe the Ne/ERN to predictive error processing where a conscious feeling of failure is not a prerequisite. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological

Robust iterative learning control for multi-phase batch processes: an average dwell-time method with 2D convergence indexes

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Limin; Shen, Yiteng; Yu, Jingxian; Li, Ping; Zhang, Ridong; Gao, Furong

2018-01-01

In order to cope with system disturbances in multi-phase batch processes with different dimensions, a hybrid robust control scheme of iterative learning control combined with feedback control is proposed in this paper. First, with a hybrid iterative learning control law designed by introducing the state error, the tracking error and the extended information, the multi-phase batch process is converted into a two-dimensional Fornasini-Marchesini (2D-FM) switched system with different dimensions. Second, a switching signal is designed using the average dwell-time method integrated with the related switching conditions to give sufficient conditions ensuring stable running for the system. Finally, the minimum running time of the subsystems and the control law gains are calculated by solving the linear matrix inequalities. Meanwhile, a compound 2D controller with robust performance is obtained, which includes a robust extended feedback control for ensuring the steady-state tracking error to converge rapidly. The application on an injection molding process displays the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed strategy.

Efficient detection of dangling pointer error for C/C++ programs

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wenzhe

2017-08-01

Dangling pointer error is pervasive in C/C++ programs and it is very hard to detect. This paper introduces an efficient detector to detect dangling pointer error in C/C++ programs. By selectively leave some memory accesses unmonitored, our method could reduce the memory monitoring overhead and thus achieves better performance over previous methods. Experiments show that our method could achieve an average speed up of 9% over previous compiler instrumentation based method and more than 50% over previous page protection based method.

Towards automatic global error control: Computable weak error expansion for the tau-leap method

KAUST Repository

Karlsson, Peer Jesper; Tempone, Raul

2011-01-01

This work develops novel error expansions with computable leading order terms for the global weak error in the tau-leap discretization of pure jump processes arising in kinetic Monte Carlo models. Accurate computable a posteriori error approximations are the basis for adaptive algorithms, a fundamental tool for numerical simulation of both deterministic and stochastic dynamical systems. These pure jump processes are simulated either by the tau-leap method, or by exact simulation, also referred to as dynamic Monte Carlo, the Gillespie Algorithm or the Stochastic Simulation Slgorithm. Two types of estimates are presented: an a priori estimate for the relative error that gives a comparison between the work for the two methods depending on the propensity regime, and an a posteriori estimate with computable leading order term. © de Gruyter 2011.

An error taxonomy system for analysis of haemodialysis incidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Xiuzhu; Itoh, Kenji; Suzuki, Satoshi

2014-12-01

This paper describes the development of a haemodialysis error taxonomy system for analysing incidents and predicting the safety status of a dialysis organisation. The error taxonomy system was developed by adapting an error taxonomy system which assumed no specific specialty to haemodialysis situations. Its application was conducted with 1,909 incident reports collected from two dialysis facilities in Japan. Over 70% of haemodialysis incidents were reported as problems or complications related to dialyser, circuit, medication and setting of dialysis condition. Approximately 70% of errors took place immediately before and after the four hours of haemodialysis therapy. Error types most frequently made in the dialysis unit were omission and qualitative errors. Failures or complications classified to staff human factors, communication, task and organisational factors were found in most dialysis incidents. Device/equipment/materials, medicine and clinical documents were most likely to be involved in errors. Haemodialysis nurses were involved in more incidents related to medicine and documents, whereas dialysis technologists made more errors with device/equipment/materials. This error taxonomy system is able to investigate incidents and adverse events occurring in the dialysis setting but is also able to estimate safety-related status of an organisation, such as reporting culture. © 2014 European Dialysis and Transplant Nurses Association/European Renal Care Association.

Effects of exposure estimation errors on estimated exposure-response relations for PM2.5.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2018-07-01

Associations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure concentrations and a wide variety of undesirable outcomes, from autism and auto theft to elderly mortality, suicide, and violent crime, have been widely reported. Influential articles have argued that reducing National Ambient Air Quality Standards for PM2.5 is desirable to reduce these outcomes. Yet, other studies have found that reducing black smoke and other particulate matter by as much as 70% and dozens of micrograms per cubic meter has not detectably affected all-cause mortality rates even after decades, despite strong, statistically significant positive exposure concentration-response (C-R) associations between them. This paper examines whether this disconnect between association and causation might be explained in part by ignored estimation errors in estimated exposure concentrations. We use EPA air quality monitor data from the Los Angeles area of California to examine the shapes of estimated C-R functions for PM2.5 when the true C-R functions are assumed to be step functions with well-defined response thresholds. The estimated C-R functions mistakenly show risk as smoothly increasing with concentrations even well below the response thresholds, thus incorrectly predicting substantial risk reductions from reductions in concentrations that do not affect health risks. We conclude that ignored estimation errors obscure the shapes of true C-R functions, including possible thresholds, possibly leading to unrealistic predictions of the changes in risk caused by changing exposures. Instead of estimating improvements in public health per unit reduction (e.g., per 10 µg/m 3 decrease) in average PM2.5 concentrations, it may be essential to consider how interventions change the distributions of exposure concentrations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Errors in accident data, its types, causes and methods of rectification-analysis of the literature.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, Ashar; Sadullah, Ahmad Farhan Mohd; Yahya, Ahmad Shukri

2017-07-29

Most of the decisions taken to improve road safety are based on accident data, which makes it the back bone of any country's road safety system. Errors in this data will lead to misidentification of black spots and hazardous road segments, projection of false estimates pertinent to accidents and fatality rates, and detection of wrong parameters responsible for accident occurrence, thereby making the entire road safety exercise ineffective. Its extent varies from country to country depending upon various factors. Knowing the type of error in the accident data and the factors causing it enables the application of the correct method for its rectification. Therefore there is a need for a systematic literature review that addresses the topic at a global level. This paper fulfils the above research gap by providing a synthesis of literature for the different types of errors found in the accident data of 46 countries across the six regions of the world. The errors are classified and discussed with respect to each type and analysed with respect to income level; assessment with regard to the magnitude for each type is provided; followed by the different causes that result in their occurrence, and the various methods used to address each type of error. Among high-income countries the extent of error in reporting slight, severe, non-fatal and fatal injury accidents varied between 39-82%, 16-52%, 12-84%, and 0-31% respectively. For middle-income countries the error for the same categories varied between 93-98%, 32.5-96%, 34-99% and 0.5-89.5% respectively. The only four studies available for low-income countries showed that the error in reporting non-fatal and fatal accidents varied between 69-80% and 0-61% respectively. The logistic relation of error in accident data reporting, dichotomised at 50%, indicated that as the income level of a country increases the probability of having less error in accident data also increases. Average error in recording information related to the

Can a combination of average of normals and "real time" External Quality Assurance replace Internal Quality Control?

Science.gov (United States)

Badrick, Tony; Graham, Peter

2018-03-28

Internal Quality Control and External Quality Assurance are separate but related processes that have developed independently in laboratory medicine over many years. They have different sample frequencies, statistical interpretations and immediacy. Both processes have evolved absorbing new understandings of the concept of laboratory error, sample material matrix and assay capability. However, we do not believe at the coalface that either process has led to much improvement in patient outcomes recently. It is the increasing reliability and automation of analytical platforms along with improved stability of reagents that has reduced systematic and random error, which in turn has minimised the risk of running less frequent IQC. We suggest that it is time to rethink the role of both these processes and unite them into a single approach using an Average of Normals model supported by more frequent External Quality Assurance samples. This new paradigm may lead to less confusion for laboratory staff and quicker responses to and identification of out of control situations.

Integrating angle-frequency domain synchronous averaging technique with feature extraction for gear fault diagnosis

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Shengli; Tang, J.

2018-01-01

Gear fault diagnosis relies heavily on the scrutiny of vibration responses measured. In reality, gear vibration signals are noisy and dominated by meshing frequencies as well as their harmonics, which oftentimes overlay the fault related components. Moreover, many gear transmission systems, e.g., those in wind turbines, constantly operate under non-stationary conditions. To reduce the influences of non-synchronous components and noise, a fault signature enhancement method that is built upon angle-frequency domain synchronous averaging is developed in this paper. Instead of being averaged in the time domain, the signals are processed in the angle-frequency domain to solve the issue of phase shifts between signal segments due to uncertainties caused by clearances, input disturbances, and sampling errors, etc. The enhanced results are then analyzed through feature extraction algorithms to identify the most distinct features for fault classification and identification. Specifically, Kernel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA) targeting at nonlinearity, Multilinear Principal Component Analysis (MPCA) targeting at high dimensionality, and Locally Linear Embedding (LLE) targeting at local similarity among the enhanced data are employed and compared to yield insights. Numerical and experimental investigations are performed, and the results reveal the effectiveness of angle-frequency domain synchronous averaging in enabling feature extraction and classification.

The study of error for analysis in dynamic image from the error of count rates in Nal (Tl) scintillation camera

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Joo Young; Kang, Chun Goo; Kim, Jung Yul; Oh, Ki Baek; Kim, Jae Sam; Park, Hoon Hee

2013-01-01

This study is aimed to evaluate the effect of T 1/2 upon count rates in the analysis of dynamic scan using NaI (Tl) scintillation camera, and suggest a new quality control method with this effects. We producted a point source with '9 9m TcO 4 - of 18.5 to 185 MBq in the 2 mL syringes, and acquired 30 frames of dynamic images with 10 to 60 seconds each using Infinia gamma camera (GE, USA). In the second experiment, 90 frames of dynamic images were acquired from 74 MBq point source by 5 gamma cameras (Infinia 2, Forte 2, Argus 1). There were not significant differences in average count rates of the sources with 18.5 to 92.5 MBq in the analysis of 10 to 60 seconds/frame with 10 seconds interval in the first experiment (p>0.05). But there were significantly low average count rates with the sources over 111 MBq activity at 60 seconds/frame (p<0.01). According to the second analysis results of linear regression by count rates of 5 gamma cameras those were acquired during 90 minutes, counting efficiency of fourth gamma camera was most low as 0.0064%, and gradient and coefficient of variation was high as 0.0042 and 0.229 each. We could not find abnormal fluctuation in χ 2 test with count rates (p>0.02), and we could find the homogeneity of variance in Levene's F-test among the gamma cameras (p>0.05). At the correlation analysis, there was only correlation between counting efficiency and gradient as significant negative correlation (r=-0.90, p<0.05). Lastly, according to the results of calculation of T 1/2 error from change of gradient with -0.25% to +0.25%, if T 1/2 is relatively long, or gradient is high, the error increase relationally. When estimate the value of 4th camera which has highest gradient from the above mentioned result, we could not see T 1/2 error within 60 minutes at that value. In conclusion, it is necessary for the scintillation gamma camera in medical field to manage hard for the quality of radiation measurement. Especially, we found a

Error signals in the subthalamic nucleus are related to post-error slowing in patients with Parkinson's disease

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Siegert, S.; Herrojo Ruiz, M.; Brücke, C.; Hueble, J.; Schneider, H.G.; Ullsperger, M.; Kühn, A.A.

2014-01-01

Error monitoring is essential for optimizing motor behavior. It has been linked to the medial frontal cortex, in particular to the anterior midcingulate cortex (aMCC). The aMCC subserves its performance-monitoring function in interaction with the basal ganglia (BG) circuits, as has been demonstrated

Inferring regional vertical crustal velocities from averaged relative sea level trends: A proof of concept

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bâki Iz H.

2017-02-01

Full Text Available This study demonstrates that relative sea level trends calculated from long-term tide gauge records can be used to estimate relative vertical crustal velocities in a region with high accuracy. A comparison of the weighted averages of the relative sea level trends estimated at six tide gauge stations in two clusters along the Eastern coast of United States, in Florida and in Maryland, reveals a statistically significant regional vertical crustal motion of Maryland with respect to Florida with a subsidence rate of −1.15±0.15 mm/yr identified predominantly due to the ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment process. The estimate is a consilience value to validate vertical crustal velocities calculated from GPS time series as well as towards constraining predictive GIA models in these regions.

Impact of controlling the sum of error probability in the sequential probability ratio test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bijoy Kumarr Pradhan

2013-05-01

Full Text Available A generalized modified method is proposed to control the sum of error probabilities in sequential probability ratio test to minimize the weighted average of the two average sample numbers under a simple null hypothesis and a simple alternative hypothesis with the restriction that the sum of error probabilities is a pre-assigned constant to find the optimal sample size and finally a comparison is done with the optimal sample size found from fixed sample size procedure. The results are applied to the cases when the random variate follows a normal law as well as Bernoullian law.

Unintentional Pharmaceutical-Related Medication Errors Caused by Laypersons Reported to the Toxicological Information Centre in the Czech Republic.

Science.gov (United States)

Urban, Michal; Leššo, Roman; Pelclová, Daniela

2016-07-01

The purpose of the article was to study unintentional pharmaceutical-related poisonings committed by laypersons that were reported to the Toxicological Information Centre in the Czech Republic. Identifying frequency, sources, reasons and consequences of the medication errors in laypersons could help to reduce the overall rate of medication errors. Records of medication error enquiries from 2013 to 2014 were extracted from the electronic database, and the following variables were reviewed: drug class, dosage form, dose, age of the subject, cause of the error, time interval from ingestion to the call, symptoms, prognosis at the time of the call and first aid recommended. Of the calls, 1354 met the inclusion criteria. Among them, central nervous system-affecting drugs (23.6%), respiratory drugs (18.5%) and alimentary drugs (16.2%) were the most common drug classes involved in the medication errors. The highest proportion of the patients was in the youngest age subgroup 0-5 year-old (46%). The reasons for the medication errors involved the leaflet misinterpretation and mistaken dose (53.6%), mixing up medications (19.2%), attempting to reduce pain with repeated doses (6.4%), erroneous routes of administration (2.2%), psychiatric/elderly patients (2.7%), others (9.0%) or unknown (6.9%). A high proportion of children among the patients may be due to the fact that children's dosages for many drugs vary by their weight, and more medications come in a variety of concentrations. Most overdoses could be prevented by safer labelling, proper cap closure systems for liquid products and medication reconciliation by both physicians and pharmacists. © 2016 Nordic Association for the Publication of BCPT (former Nordic Pharmacological Society).

Comparing Absolute Error with Squared Error for Evaluating Empirical Models of Continuous Variables: Compositions, Implications, and Consequences

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, J.

2014-12-01

Reducing modeling error is often a major concern of empirical geophysical models. However, modeling errors can be defined in different ways: When the response variable is continuous, the most commonly used metrics are squared (SQ) and absolute (ABS) errors. For most applications, ABS error is the more natural, but SQ error is mathematically more tractable, so is often used as a substitute with little scientific justification. Existing literature has not thoroughly investigated the implications of using SQ error in place of ABS error, especially not geospatially. This study compares the two metrics through the lens of bias-variance decomposition (BVD). BVD breaks down the expected modeling error of each model evaluation point into bias (systematic error), variance (model sensitivity), and noise (observation instability). It offers a way to probe the composition of various error metrics. I analytically derived the BVD of ABS error and compared it with the well-known SQ error BVD, and found that not only the two metrics measure the characteristics of the probability distributions of modeling errors differently, but also the effects of these characteristics on the overall expected error are different. Most notably, under SQ error all bias, variance, and noise increase expected error, while under ABS error certain parts of the error components reduce expected error. Since manipulating these subtractive terms is a legitimate way to reduce expected modeling error, SQ error can never capture the complete story embedded in ABS error. I then empirically compared the two metrics with a supervised remote sensing model for mapping surface imperviousness. Pair-wise spatially-explicit comparison for each error component showed that SQ error overstates all error components in comparison to ABS error, especially variance-related terms. Hence, substituting ABS error with SQ error makes model performance appear worse than it actually is, and the analyst would more likely accept a

Temporal dynamics of conflict monitoring and the effects of one or two conflict sources on error-(related) negativity.

Science.gov (United States)

Armbrecht, Anne-Simone; Wöhrmann, Anne; Gibbons, Henning; Stahl, Jutta

2010-09-01

The present electrophysiological study investigated the temporal development of response conflict and the effects of diverging conflict sources on error(-related) negativity (Ne). Eighteen participants performed a combined stop-signal flanker task, which was comprised of two different conflict sources: a left-right and a go-stop response conflict. It is assumed that the Ne reflects the activity of a conflict monitoring system and thus increases according to (i) the number of conflict sources and (ii) the temporal development of the conflict activity. No increase of the Ne amplitude after double errors (comprising two conflict sources) as compared to hand- and stop-errors (comprising one conflict source) was found, whereas a higher Ne amplitude was observed after a delayed stop-signal onset. The results suggest that the Ne is not sensitive to an increase in the number of conflict sources, but to the temporal dynamics of a go-stop response conflict. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of different spatial transformations applied to EEG data: A case study of error processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Michael X

2015-09-01

The purpose of this paper is to compare the effects of different spatial transformations applied to the same scalp-recorded EEG data. The spatial transformations applied are two referencing schemes (average and linked earlobes), the surface Laplacian, and beamforming (a distributed source localization procedure). EEG data were collected during a speeded reaction time task that provided a comparison of activity between error vs. correct responses. Analyses focused on time-frequency power, frequency band-specific inter-electrode connectivity, and within-subject cross-trial correlations between EEG activity and reaction time. Time-frequency power analyses showed similar patterns of midfrontal delta-theta power for errors compared to correct responses across all spatial transformations. Beamforming additionally revealed error-related anterior and lateral prefrontal beta-band activity. Within-subject brain-behavior correlations showed similar patterns of results across the spatial transformations, with the correlations being the weakest after beamforming. The most striking difference among the spatial transformations was seen in connectivity analyses: linked earlobe reference produced weak inter-site connectivity that was attributable to volume conduction (zero phase lag), while the average reference and Laplacian produced more interpretable connectivity results. Beamforming did not reveal any significant condition modulations of connectivity. Overall, these analyses show that some findings are robust to spatial transformations, while other findings, particularly those involving cross-trial analyses or connectivity, are more sensitive and may depend on the use of appropriate spatial transformations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

WACC: Definition, misconceptions and errors

OpenAIRE

Fernandez, Pablo

2011-01-01

The WACC is just the rate at which the Free Cash Flows must be discounted to obtain the same result as in the valuation using Equity Cash Flows discounted at the required return to equity (Ke) The WACC is neither a cost nor a required return: it is a weighted average of a cost and a required return. To refer to the WACC as the "cost of capital" may be misleading because it is not a cost. The paper includes 7 errors due to not remembering the definition of WACC and shows the relationship betwe...

Measurement of average density and relative volumes in a dispersed two-phase fluid

Science.gov (United States)

Sreepada, Sastry R.; Rippel, Robert R.

1992-01-01

An apparatus and a method are disclosed for measuring the average density and relative volumes in an essentially transparent, dispersed two-phase fluid. A laser beam with a diameter no greater than 1% of the diameter of the bubbles, droplets, or particles of the dispersed phase is directed onto a diffraction grating. A single-order component of the diffracted beam is directed through the two-phase fluid and its refraction is measured. Preferably, the refracted beam exiting the fluid is incident upon a optical filter with linearly varing optical density and the intensity of the filtered beam is measured. The invention can be combined with other laser-based measurement systems, e.g., laser doppler anemometry.

Response Accuracy and Tracking Errors with Decentralized Control of Commercial V2G Chargers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ziras, Charalampos; Zecchino, Antonio; Marinelli, Mattia

2018-01-01

There is a growing interest in using the flexibility of electric vehicles (EVs) to provide power system services, such as fast frequency regulation. Decentralized control is advocated due to its reliability and much lower communication requirements. A commonly used linear droop characteristic...... results in low average efficiencies, whereas controllers with 3 modes (idle, fully charging, fully discharging) result in large reserve errors when the aggregation size is small. To address these issues, we propose a stochastic, decentralized controller with tunable response granularity which minimizes...... switching actions. The EV fleet operator can optimize the chargers’ performance according to the fleet size, the service error requirements, the average switching rate and the average efficiency. We use real efficiency characteristics from EVs and chargers providing fast frequency regulation and we show...

The interaction of the flux errors and transport errors in modeled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, S.; Lauvaux, T.; Butler, M. P.; Keller, K.; Davis, K. J.; Jacobson, A. R.; Schuh, A. E.; Basu, S.; Liu, J.; Baker, D.; Crowell, S.; Zhou, Y.; Williams, C. A.

2017-12-01

Regional estimates of biogenic carbon fluxes over North America from top-down atmospheric inversions and terrestrial biogeochemical (or bottom-up) models remain inconsistent at annual and sub-annual time scales. While top-down estimates are impacted by limited atmospheric data, uncertain prior flux estimates and errors in the atmospheric transport models, bottom-up fluxes are affected by uncertain driver data, uncertain model parameters and missing mechanisms across ecosystems. This study quantifies both flux errors and transport errors, and their interaction in the CO2 atmospheric simulation. These errors are assessed by an ensemble approach. The WRF-Chem model is set up with 17 biospheric fluxes from the Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project, CarbonTracker-Near Real Time, and the Simple Biosphere model. The spread of the flux ensemble members represents the flux uncertainty in the modeled CO2 concentrations. For the transport errors, WRF-Chem is run using three physical model configurations with three stochastic perturbations to sample the errors from both the physical parameterizations of the model and the initial conditions. Additionally, the uncertainties from boundary conditions are assessed using four CO2 global inversion models which have assimilated tower and satellite CO2 observations. The error structures are assessed in time and space. The flux ensemble members overall overestimate CO2 concentrations. They also show larger temporal variability than the observations. These results suggest that the flux ensemble is overdispersive. In contrast, the transport ensemble is underdispersive. The averaged spatial distribution of modeled CO2 shows strong positive biogenic signal in the southern US and strong negative signals along the eastern coast of Canada. We hypothesize that the former is caused by the 3-hourly downscaling algorithm from which the nighttime respiration dominates the daytime modeled CO2 signals and that the latter

Dosimetric consequences of translational and rotational errors in frame-less image-guided radiosurgery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guckenberger, Matthias; Roesch, Johannes; Baier, Kurt; Sweeney, Reinhart A; Flentje, Michael

2012-01-01

To investigate geometric and dosimetric accuracy of frame-less image-guided radiosurgery (IG-RS) for brain metastases. Single fraction IG-RS was practiced in 72 patients with 98 brain metastases. Patient positioning and immobilization used either double- (n = 71) or single-layer (n = 27) thermoplastic masks. Pre-treatment set-up errors (n = 98) were evaluated with cone-beam CT (CBCT) based image-guidance (IG) and were corrected in six degrees of freedom without an action level. CBCT imaging after treatment measured intra-fractional errors (n = 64). Pre- and post-treatment errors were simulated in the treatment planning system and target coverage and dose conformity were evaluated. Three scenarios of 0 mm, 1 mm and 2 mm GTV-to-PTV (gross tumor volume, planning target volume) safety margins (SM) were simulated. Errors prior to IG were 3.9 mm ± 1.7 mm (3D vector) and the maximum rotational error was 1.7° ± 0.8° on average. The post-treatment 3D error was 0.9 mm ± 0.6 mm. No differences between double- and single-layer masks were observed. Intra-fractional errors were significantly correlated with the total treatment time with 0.7mm±0.5mm and 1.2mm±0.7mm for treatment times ≤23 minutes and >23 minutes (p<0.01), respectively. Simulation of RS without image-guidance reduced target coverage and conformity to 75% ± 19% and 60% ± 25% of planned values. Each 3D set-up error of 1 mm decreased target coverage and dose conformity by 6% and 10% on average, respectively, with a large inter-patient variability. Pre-treatment correction of translations only but not rotations did not affect target coverage and conformity. Post-treatment errors reduced target coverage by >5% in 14% of the patients. A 1 mm safety margin fully compensated intra-fractional patient motion. IG-RS with online correction of translational errors achieves high geometric and dosimetric accuracy. Intra-fractional errors decrease target coverage and conformity unless compensated with appropriate

A Three-Dimensional Statistical Average Skull: Application of Biometric Morphing in Generating Missing Anatomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Teshima, Tara Lynn; Patel, Vaibhav; Mainprize, James G; Edwards, Glenn; Antonyshyn, Oleh M

2015-07-01

The utilization of three-dimensional modeling technology in craniomaxillofacial surgery has grown exponentially during the last decade. Future development, however, is hindered by the lack of a normative three-dimensional anatomic dataset and a statistical mean three-dimensional virtual model. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a protocol to generate a statistical three-dimensional virtual model based on a normative dataset of adult skulls. Two hundred adult skull CT images were reviewed. The average three-dimensional skull was computed by processing each CT image in the series using thin-plate spline geometric morphometric protocol. Our statistical average three-dimensional skull was validated by reconstructing patient-specific topography in cranial defects. The experiment was repeated 4 times. In each case, computer-generated cranioplasties were compared directly to the original intact skull. The errors describing the difference between the prediction and the original were calculated. A normative database of 33 adult human skulls was collected. Using 21 anthropometric landmark points, a protocol for three-dimensional skull landmarking and data reduction was developed and a statistical average three-dimensional skull was generated. Our results show the root mean square error (RMSE) for restoration of a known defect using the native best match skull, our statistical average skull, and worst match skull was 0.58, 0.74, and 4.4  mm, respectively. The ability to statistically average craniofacial surface topography will be a valuable instrument for deriving missing anatomy in complex craniofacial defects and deficiencies as well as in evaluating morphologic results of surgery.

Learning time-dependent noise to reduce logical errors: real time error rate estimation in quantum error correction

Science.gov (United States)

Huo, Ming-Xia; Li, Ying

2017-12-01

Quantum error correction is important to quantum information processing, which allows us to reliably process information encoded in quantum error correction codes. Efficient quantum error correction benefits from the knowledge of error rates. We propose a protocol for monitoring error rates in real time without interrupting the quantum error correction. Any adaptation of the quantum error correction code or its implementation circuit is not required. The protocol can be directly applied to the most advanced quantum error correction techniques, e.g. surface code. A Gaussian processes algorithm is used to estimate and predict error rates based on error correction data in the past. We find that using these estimated error rates, the probability of error correction failures can be significantly reduced by a factor increasing with the code distance.

Classification of Error Related Brain Activity in an Auditory Identification Task with Conditions of Varying Complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Kakkos, I.; Gkiatis, K.; Bromis, K.; Asvestas, P. A.; Karanasiou, I. S.; Ventouras, E. M.; Matsopoulos, G. K.

2017-11-01

The detection of an error is the cognitive evaluation of an action outcome that is considered undesired or mismatches an expected response. Brain activity during monitoring of correct and incorrect responses elicits Event Related Potentials (ERPs) revealing complex cerebral responses to deviant sensory stimuli. Development of accurate error detection systems is of great importance both concerning practical applications and in investigating the complex neural mechanisms of decision making. In this study, data are used from an audio identification experiment that was implemented with two levels of complexity in order to investigate neurophysiological error processing mechanisms in actors and observers. To examine and analyse the variations of the processing of erroneous sensory information for each level of complexity we employ Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifiers with various learning methods and kernels using characteristic ERP time-windowed features. For dimensionality reduction and to remove redundant features we implement a feature selection framework based on Sequential Forward Selection (SFS). The proposed method provided high accuracy in identifying correct and incorrect responses both for actors and for observers with mean accuracy of 93% and 91% respectively. Additionally, computational time was reduced and the effects of the nesting problem usually occurring in SFS of large feature sets were alleviated.

Relation between 1m depth temperature and average geothermal gradient at 75cm depth in geothermal fields

OpenAIRE

江原, 幸雄

2009-01-01

Shallow ground temperatures such as 1m depth temperature have been measured to delineate thermal anomalies of geothermal fields and also to estimate heat discharge rates from geothermal fields. As a result, a close linear relation between 1m depth temperature and average geothermal gradient at 75cm depth has been recognized in many geothermal fields and was used to estimate conductive heat discharge rates. However, such a linear relation may show that the shallow thermal regime in geothermal ...

A national physician survey of diagnostic error in paediatrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Perrem, Lucy M; Fanshawe, Thomas R; Sharif, Farhana; Plüddemann, Annette; O'Neill, Michael B

2016-10-01

This cross-sectional survey explored paediatric physician perspectives regarding diagnostic errors. All paediatric consultants and specialist registrars in Ireland were invited to participate in this anonymous online survey. The response rate for the study was 54 % (n = 127). Respondents had a median of 9-year clinical experience (interquartile range (IQR) 4-20 years). A diagnostic error was reported at least monthly by 19 (15.0 %) respondents. Consultants reported significantly less diagnostic errors compared to trainees (p value = 0.01). Cognitive error was the top-ranked contributing factor to diagnostic error, with incomplete history and examination considered to be the principal cognitive error. Seeking a second opinion and close follow-up of patients to ensure that the diagnosis is correct were the highest-ranked, clinician-based solutions to diagnostic error. Inadequate staffing levels and excessive workload were the most highly ranked system-related and situational factors. Increased access to and availability of consultants and experts was the most highly ranked system-based solution to diagnostic error. We found a low level of self-perceived diagnostic error in an experienced group of paediatricians, at variance with the literature and warranting further clarification. The results identify perceptions on the major cognitive, system-related and situational factors contributing to diagnostic error and also key preventative strategies. • Diagnostic errors are an important source of preventable patient harm and have an estimated incidence of 10-15 %. • They are multifactorial in origin and include cognitive, system-related and situational factors. What is New: • We identified a low rate of self-perceived diagnostic error in contrast to the existing literature. • Incomplete history and examination, inadequate staffing levels and excessive workload are cited as the principal contributing factors to diagnostic error in this study.

Competition between learned reward and error outcome predictions in anterior cingulate cortex.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, William H; Brown, Joshua W

2010-02-15

The anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) is implicated in performance monitoring and cognitive control. Non-human primate studies of ACC show prominent reward signals, but these are elusive in human studies, which instead show mainly conflict and error effects. Here we demonstrate distinct appetitive and aversive activity in human ACC. The error likelihood hypothesis suggests that ACC activity increases in proportion to the likelihood of an error, and ACC is also sensitive to the consequence magnitude of the predicted error. Previous work further showed that error likelihood effects reach a ceiling as the potential consequences of an error increase, possibly due to reductions in the average reward. We explored this issue by independently manipulating reward magnitude of task responses and error likelihood while controlling for potential error consequences in an Incentive Change Signal Task. The fMRI results ruled out a modulatory effect of expected reward on error likelihood effects in favor of a competition effect between expected reward and error likelihood. Dynamic causal modeling showed that error likelihood and expected reward signals are intrinsic to the ACC rather than received from elsewhere. These findings agree with interpretations of ACC activity as signaling both perceptions of risk and predicted reward. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Performance analysis of relay-assisted all-optical FSO networks over strong atmospheric turbulence channels with pointing errors

KAUST Repository

Yang, Liang

2014-12-01

In this study, we consider a relay-assisted free-space optical communication scheme over strong atmospheric turbulence channels with misalignment-induced pointing errors. The links from the source to the destination are assumed to be all-optical links. Assuming a variable gain relay with amplify-and-forward protocol, the electrical signal at the source is forwarded to the destination with the help of this relay through all-optical links. More specifically, we first present a cumulative density function (CDF) analysis for the end-to-end signal-to-noise ratio. Based on this CDF, the outage probability, bit-error rate, and average capacity of our proposed system are derived. Results show that the system diversity order is related to the minimum value of the channel parameters.

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for Batch State Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.

2011-01-01

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. Consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. It then follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully account for the error in the state estimate. By way of a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm, it is possible to arrive at an appropriate, and formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix. The first specific step of the method is to use the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than its usual total weighted residual form. Next it is helpful to interpret the solution to the normal equations as the average of a collection of sample vectors drawn from a hypothetical parent population. From here, using a standard statistical analysis approach, it directly follows as to how to determine the standard empirical state error covariance matrix. This matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the

Medication errors: prescribing faults and prescription errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Velo, Giampaolo P; Minuz, Pietro

2009-06-01

1. Medication errors are common in general practice and in hospitals. Both errors in the act of writing (prescription errors) and prescribing faults due to erroneous medical decisions can result in harm to patients. 2. Any step in the prescribing process can generate errors. Slips, lapses, or mistakes are sources of errors, as in unintended omissions in the transcription of drugs. Faults in dose selection, omitted transcription, and poor handwriting are common. 3. Inadequate knowledge or competence and incomplete information about clinical characteristics and previous treatment of individual patients can result in prescribing faults, including the use of potentially inappropriate medications. 4. An unsafe working environment, complex or undefined procedures, and inadequate communication among health-care personnel, particularly between doctors and nurses, have been identified as important underlying factors that contribute to prescription errors and prescribing faults. 5. Active interventions aimed at reducing prescription errors and prescribing faults are strongly recommended. These should be focused on the education and training of prescribers and the use of on-line aids. The complexity of the prescribing procedure should be reduced by introducing automated systems or uniform prescribing charts, in order to avoid transcription and omission errors. Feedback control systems and immediate review of prescriptions, which can be performed with the assistance of a hospital pharmacist, are also helpful. Audits should be performed periodically.

Cultural differences in categorical memory errors persist with age.

Science.gov (United States)

Gutchess, Angela; Boduroglu, Aysecan

2018-01-02

This cross-sectional experiment examined the influence of aging on cross-cultural differences in memory errors. Previous research revealed that Americans committed more categorical memory errors than Turks; we tested whether the cognitive constraints associated with aging impacted the pattern of memory errors across cultures. Furthermore, older adults are vulnerable to memory errors for semantically-related information, and we assessed whether this tendency occurs across cultures. Younger and older adults from the US and Turkey studied word pairs, with some pairs sharing a categorical relationship and some unrelated. Participants then completed a cued recall test, generating the word that was paired with the first. These responses were scored for correct responses or different types of errors, including categorical and semantic. The tendency for Americans to commit more categorical memory errors emerged for both younger and older adults. In addition, older adults across cultures committed more memory errors, and these were for semantically-related information (including both categorical and other types of semantic errors). Heightened vulnerability to memory errors with age extends across cultural groups, and Americans' proneness to commit categorical memory errors occurs across ages. The findings indicate some robustness in the ways that age and culture influence memory errors.

Technical errors in MR arthrography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hodler, Juerg

2008-01-01

This article discusses potential technical problems of MR arthrography. It starts with contraindications, followed by problems relating to injection technique, contrast material and MR imaging technique. For some of the aspects discussed, there is only little published evidence. Therefore, the article is based on the personal experience of the author and on local standards of procedures. Such standards, as well as medico-legal considerations, may vary from country to country. Contraindications for MR arthrography include pre-existing infection, reflex sympathetic dystrophy and possibly bleeding disorders, avascular necrosis and known allergy to contrast media. Errors in injection technique may lead to extra-articular collection of contrast agent or to contrast agent leaking from the joint space, which may cause diagnostic difficulties. Incorrect concentrations of contrast material influence image quality and may also lead to non-diagnostic examinations. Errors relating to MR imaging include delays between injection and imaging and inadequate choice of sequences. Potential solutions to the various possible errors are presented. (orig.)

Technical errors in MR arthrography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hodler, Juerg [Orthopaedic University Hospital of Balgrist, Radiology, Zurich (Switzerland)

2008-01-15

This article discusses potential technical problems of MR arthrography. It starts with contraindications, followed by problems relating to injection technique, contrast material and MR imaging technique. For some of the aspects discussed, there is only little published evidence. Therefore, the article is based on the personal experience of the author and on local standards of procedures. Such standards, as well as medico-legal considerations, may vary from country to country. Contraindications for MR arthrography include pre-existing infection, reflex sympathetic dystrophy and possibly bleeding disorders, avascular necrosis and known allergy to contrast media. Errors in injection technique may lead to extra-articular collection of contrast agent or to contrast agent leaking from the joint space, which may cause diagnostic difficulties. Incorrect concentrations of contrast material influence image quality and may also lead to non-diagnostic examinations. Errors relating to MR imaging include delays between injection and imaging and inadequate choice of sequences. Potential solutions to the various possible errors are presented. (orig.)

Performance Errors in Weight Training and Their Correction.

Science.gov (United States)

Downing, John H.; Lander, Jeffrey E.

2002-01-01

Addresses general performance errors in weight training, also discussing each category of error separately. The paper focuses on frequency and intensity, incorrect training velocities, full range of motion, and symmetrical training. It also examines specific errors related to the bench press, squat, military press, and bent- over and seated row…

Data error effects on net radiation and evapotranspiration estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Llasat, M.C.; Snyder, R.L.

1998-01-01

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the potential error in estimating the net radiation and reference evapotranspiration resulting from errors in the measurement or estimation of weather parameters. A methodology for estimating the net radiation using hourly weather variables measured at a typical agrometeorological station (e.g., solar radiation, temperature and relative humidity) is presented. Then the error propagation analysis is made for net radiation and for reference evapotranspiration. Data from the Raimat weather station, which is located in the Catalonia region of Spain, are used to illustrate the error relationships. The results show that temperature, relative humidity and cloud cover errors have little effect on the net radiation or reference evapotranspiration. A 5°C error in estimating surface temperature leads to errors as big as 30 W m −2 at high temperature. A 4% solar radiation (R s ) error can cause a net radiation error as big as 26 W m −2 when R s ≈ 1000 W m −2 . However, the error is less when cloud cover is calculated as a function of the solar radiation. The absolute error in reference evapotranspiration (ET o ) equals the product of the net radiation error and the radiation term weighting factor [W = Δ(Δ1+γ)] in the ET o equation. Therefore, the ET o error varies between 65 and 85% of the R n error as air temperature increases from about 20° to 40°C. (author)

Error Analysis of Variations on Larsen's Benchmark Problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azmy, YY

2001-01-01

Error norms for three variants of Larsen's benchmark problem are evaluated using three numerical methods for solving the discrete ordinates approximation of the neutron transport equation in multidimensional Cartesian geometry. The three variants of Larsen's test problem are concerned with the incoming flux boundary conditions: unit incoming flux on the left and bottom edges (Larsen's configuration); unit, incoming flux only on the left edge; unit incoming flux only on the bottom edge. The three methods considered are the Diamond Difference (DD) method, and the constant-approximation versions of the Arbitrarily High Order Transport method of the Nodal type (AHOT-N), and of the Characteristic (AHOT-C) type. The cell-wise error is computed as the difference between the cell-averaged flux computed by each method and the exact value, then the L 1 , L 2 , and L ∞ error norms are calculated. The results of this study demonstrate that while integral error norms, i.e. L 1 , L 2 , converge to zero with mesh refinement, the pointwise L ∞ norm does not due to solution discontinuity across the singular characteristic. Little difference is observed between the error norm behavior of the three methods considered in spite of the fact that AHOT-C is locally exact, suggesting that numerical diffusion across the singular characteristic as the major source of error on the global scale. However, AHOT-C possesses a given accuracy in a larger fraction of computational cells than DD

Assessing the optimized precision of the aircraft mass balance method for measurement of urban greenhouse gas emission rates through averaging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexie M. F. Heimburger

2017-06-01

Full Text Available To effectively address climate change, aggressive mitigation policies need to be implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Anthropogenic carbon emissions are mostly generated from urban environments, where human activities are spatially concentrated. Improvements in uncertainty determinations and precision of measurement techniques are critical to permit accurate and precise tracking of emissions changes relative to the reduction targets. As part of the INFLUX project, we quantified carbon dioxide (CO2, carbon monoxide (CO and methane (CH4 emission rates for the city of Indianapolis by averaging results from nine aircraft-based mass balance experiments performed in November-December 2014. Our goal was to assess the achievable precision of the aircraft-based mass balance method through averaging, assuming constant CO2, CH4 and CO emissions during a three-week field campaign in late fall. The averaging method leads to an emission rate of 14,600 mol/s for CO2, assumed to be largely fossil-derived for this period of the year, and 108 mol/s for CO. The relative standard error of the mean is 17% and 16%, for CO2 and CO, respectively, at the 95% confidence level (CL, i.e. a more than 2-fold improvement from the previous estimate of ~40% for single-flight measurements for Indianapolis. For CH4, the averaged emission rate is 67 mol/s, while the standard error of the mean at 95% CL is large, i.e. ±60%. Given the results for CO2 and CO for the same flight data, we conclude that this much larger scatter in the observed CH4 emission rate is most likely due to variability of CH4 emissions, suggesting that the assumption of constant daily emissions is not correct for CH4 sources. This work shows that repeated measurements using aircraft-based mass balance methods can yield sufficient precision of the mean to inform emissions reduction efforts by detecting changes over time in urban emissions.

Effects of errors on the dynamic aperture of the Advanced Photon Source storage ring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bizek, H.; Crosbie, E.; Lessner, E.; Teng, L.; Wirsbinski, J.

1991-01-01

The individual tolerance limits for alignment errors and magnet fabrication errors in the 7-GeV Advanced Photon Source storage ring are determined by computer-simulated tracking. Limits are established for dipole strength and roll errors, quadrupole strength and alignment errors, sextupole strength and alignment errors, as well as higher order multipole strengths in dipole and quadrupole magnets. The effects of girder misalignments on the dynamic aperture are also studied. Computer simulations are obtained with the tracking program RACETRACK, with errors introduced from a user-defined Gaussian distribution, truncated at ±5 standard deviation units. For each error, the average and rms spread of the stable amplitudes are determined for ten distinct machines, defined as ten different seeds to the random distribution, and for five distinct initial directions of the tracking particle. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

Game Design Principles based on Human Error

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Guilherme Zaffari

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This paper displays the result of the authors’ research regarding to the incorporation of Human Error, through design principles, to video game design. In a general way, designers must consider Human Error factors throughout video game interface development; however, when related to its core design, adaptations are in need, since challenge is an important factor for fun and under the perspective of Human Error, challenge can be considered as a flaw in the system. The research utilized Human Error classifications, data triangulation via predictive human error analysis, and the expanded flow theory to allow the design of a set of principles in order to match the design of playful challenges with the principles of Human Error. From the results, it was possible to conclude that the application of Human Error in game design has a positive effect on player experience, allowing it to interact only with errors associated with the intended aesthetics of the game.

State-independent error-disturbance trade-off for measurement operators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, S.S.; Wu, Shengjun; Chau, H.F.

2016-01-01

In general, classical measurement statistics of a quantum measurement is disturbed by performing an additional incompatible quantum measurement beforehand. Using this observation, we introduce a state-independent definition of disturbance by relating it to the distinguishability problem between two classical statistical distributions – one resulting from a single quantum measurement and the other from a succession of two quantum measurements. Interestingly, we find an error-disturbance trade-off relation for any measurements in two-dimensional Hilbert space and for measurements with mutually unbiased bases in any finite-dimensional Hilbert space. This relation shows that error should be reduced to zero in order to minimize the sum of error and disturbance. We conjecture that a similar trade-off relation with a slightly relaxed definition of error can be generalized to any measurements in an arbitrary finite-dimensional Hilbert space.

Swath-altimetry measurements of the main stem Amazon River: measurement errors and hydraulic implications

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, M. D.; Durand, M.; Jung, H. C.; Alsdorf, D.

2015-04-01

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, scheduled for launch in 2020, will provide a step-change improvement in the measurement of terrestrial surface-water storage and dynamics. In particular, it will provide the first, routine two-dimensional measurements of water-surface elevations. In this paper, we aimed to (i) characterise and illustrate in two dimensions the errors which may be found in SWOT swath measurements of terrestrial surface water, (ii) simulate the spatio-temporal sampling scheme of SWOT for the Amazon, and (iii) assess the impact of each of these on estimates of water-surface slope and river discharge which may be obtained from SWOT imagery. We based our analysis on a virtual mission for a ~260 km reach of the central Amazon (Solimões) River, using a hydraulic model to provide water-surface elevations according to SWOT spatio-temporal sampling to which errors were added based on a two-dimensional height error spectrum derived from the SWOT design requirements. We thereby obtained water-surface elevation measurements for the Amazon main stem as may be observed by SWOT. Using these measurements, we derived estimates of river slope and discharge and compared them to those obtained directly from the hydraulic model. We found that cross-channel and along-reach averaging of SWOT measurements using reach lengths greater than 4 km for the Solimões and 7.5 km for Purus reduced the effect of systematic height errors, enabling discharge to be reproduced accurately from the water height, assuming known bathymetry and friction. Using cross-sectional averaging and 20 km reach lengths, results show Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency values of 0.99 for the Solimões and 0.88 for the Purus, with 2.6 and 19.1 % average overall error in discharge, respectively. We extend the results to other rivers worldwide and infer that SWOT-derived discharge estimates may be more accurate for rivers with larger channel widths (permitting a greater level of cross

Group-Contribution based Property Estimation and Uncertainty analysis for Flammability-related Properties

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frutiger, Jerome; Marcarie, Camille; Abildskov, Jens

2016-01-01

regression and outlier treatment have been applied to achieve high accuracy. Furthermore, linear error propagation based on covariance matrix of estimated parameters was performed. Therefore, every estimated property value of the flammability-related properties is reported together with its corresponding 95......%-confidence interval of the prediction. Compared to existing models the developed ones have a higher accuracy, are simple to apply and provide uncertainty information on the calculated prediction. The average relative error and correlation coefficient are 11.5% and 0.99 for LFL, 15.9% and 0.91 for UFL, 2...

Republished error management: Descriptions of verbal communication errors between staff. An analysis of 84 root cause analysis-reports from Danish hospitals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rabøl, Louise Isager; Andersen, Mette Lehmann; Østergaard, Doris

2011-01-01

Introduction Poor teamwork and communication between healthcare staff are correlated to patient safety incidents. However, the organisational factors responsible for these issues are unexplored. Root cause analyses (RCA) use human factors thinking to analyse the systems behind severe patient safety...... and characteristics of verbal communication errors such as handover errors and error during teamwork. Results Raters found description of verbal communication errors in 44 reports (52%). These included handover errors (35 (86%)), communication errors between different staff groups (19 (43%)), misunderstandings (13...... (30%)), communication errors between junior and senior staff members (11 (25%)), hesitance in speaking up (10 (23%)) and communication errors during teamwork (8 (18%)). The kappa values were 0.44-0.78. Unproceduralized communication and information exchange via telephone, related to transfer between...

Uncertainties of exposure-related quantities in mammographic x-ray unit quality control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gregory, Kent J.; Pattison, John E.; Bibbo, Giovanni

2006-01-01

Breast screening programs operate in many countries with mammographic x-ray units subject to stringent quality control tests. These tests include the evaluation of quantities based on exposure measurements, such as half value layer, automatic exposure control reproducibility, average glandular dose, and radiation output rate. There are numerous error sources that contribute to the uncertainty of these exposure-related quantities, some of which are unique to the low energy x-ray spectrum produced by mammographic x-ray units. For each of these exposure-related quantities, the applicable error sources and their magnitudes vary, depending on the test equipment used to make the measurement, and whether or not relevant corrections have been applied. This study has identified and quantified a range of error sources that may be used to estimate the combined uncertainty of these exposure-related quantities, given the test equipment used and corrections applied. The uncertainty analysis uses methods described by the International Standards Organization's Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. Examples of how these error sources combine to give the uncertainty of the exposure-related quantities are presented. Using the best test equipment evaluated in this study, uncertainties of the four exposure-related quantities at the 95% confidence interval were found to be ±1.6% (half value layer), ±0.0008 (automatic exposure control reproducibility), ±2.3% (average glandular dose), and ±2.1% (radiation output rate). In some cases, using less precise test equipment or failing to apply corrections, resulted in uncertainties more than double in magnitude

Errors in radiographic recognition in the emergency room

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Britton, C.A.; Cooperstein, L.A.

1986-01-01

For 6 months we monitored the frequency and type of errors in radiographic recognition made by radiology residents on call in our emergency room. A relatively low error rate was observed, probably because the authors evaluated cognitive errors only, rather than include those of interpretation. The most common missed finding was a small fracture, particularly on the hands or feet. First-year residents were most likely to make an error, but, interestingly, our survey revealed a small subset of upper-level residents who made a disproportionate number of errors

Estimators of the Relations of Equivalence, Tolerance and Preference Based on Pairwise Comparisons with Random Errors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leszek Klukowski

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a review of results of the author in the area of estimation of the relations of equivalence, tolerance and preference within a finite set based on multiple, independent (in a stochastic way pairwise comparisons with random errors, in binary and multivalent forms. These estimators require weaker assumptions than those used in the literature on the subject. Estimates of the relations are obtained based on solutions to problems from discrete optimization. They allow application of both types of comparisons - binary and multivalent (this fact relates to the tolerance and preference relations. The estimates can be verified in a statistical way; in particular, it is possible to verify the type of the relation. The estimates have been applied by the author to problems regarding forecasting, financial engineering and bio-cybernetics. (original abstract

Comparison of ETF´s performance related to the tracking error

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michaela Dorocáková

2017-12-01

Full Text Available With the development of financial markets, there is also immediate expansion of fund industry, which is a representative issue of collective investment. The purpose of index funds is to replicate returns and risk of underling index to the largest possible extent, with tracking error being one of the most monitored performance indicator of these passively managed funds. The aim of this paper is to describe several perspectives concerning indexing, index funds and exchange-traded funds, to explain the issue of tracking error with its examination and subsequent comparison of such funds provided by leading investment management companies with regard to different methods used for its evaluation. Our research shows that the decisive factor for occurrence of copy deviation is fund size and fund´s stock consolidation. In addition, performance differences between exchange-traded fund and its benchmark tend to show the signs of seasonality in the sense of increasing in the last months of a year.

Students’ Written Production Error Analysis in the EFL Classroom Teaching: A Study of Adult English Learners Errors

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Ranauli Sihombing

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Errors analysis has become one of the most interesting issues in the study of Second Language Acquisition. It can not be denied that some teachers do not know a lot about error analysis and related theories of how L1, L2 or foreign language acquired. In addition, the students often feel upset since they find a gap between themselves and the teachers for the errors the students make and the teachers’ understanding about the error correction. The present research aims to investigate what errors adult English learners make in written production of English. The significances of the study is to know what errors students make in writing that the teachers can find solution to the errors the students make for a better English language teaching and learning especially in teaching English for adults. The study employed qualitative method. The research was undertaken at an airline education center in Bandung. The result showed that syntax errors are more frequently found than morphology errors, especially in terms of verb phrase errors. It is recommended that it is important for teacher to know the theory of second language acquisition in order to know how the students learn and produce theirlanguage. In addition, it will be advantages for teachers if they know what errors students frequently make in their learning, so that the teachers can give solution to the students for a better English language learning achievement.   DOI: https://doi.org/10.24071/llt.2015.180205

Learning and generalization errors for the 2D binary perceptron

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klymovskiy, A.

2005-01-01

The statistical mechanics model of the binary perceptron learning is considered. It is proved that under the regularity conditions learning and generalization errors for the binary perceptron with two inputs tend to 0 at the average; the first term of the asymptotics is provided; its behavior with

Modified parity space averaging approaches for online cross-calibration of redundant sensors in nuclear reactors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moath Kassim

2018-05-01

Full Text Available To maintain safety and reliability of reactors, redundant sensors are usually used to measure critical variables and estimate their averaged time-dependency. Nonhealthy sensors can badly influence the estimation result of the process variable. Since online condition monitoring was introduced, the online cross-calibration method has been widely used to detect any anomaly of sensor readings among the redundant group. The cross-calibration method has four main averaging techniques: simple averaging, band averaging, weighted averaging, and parity space averaging (PSA. PSA is used to weigh redundant signals based on their error bounds and their band consistency. Using the consistency weighting factor (C, PSA assigns more weight to consistent signals that have shared bands, based on how many bands they share, and gives inconsistent signals of very low weight. In this article, three approaches are introduced for improving the PSA technique: the first is to add another consistency factor, so called trend consistency (TC, to include a consideration of the preserving of any characteristic edge that reflects the behavior of equipment/component measured by the process parameter; the second approach proposes replacing the error bound/accuracy based weighting factor (Wa with a weighting factor based on the Euclidean distance (Wd, and the third approach proposes applying Wd,TC,andC, all together. Cold neutron source data sets of four redundant hydrogen pressure transmitters from a research reactor were used to perform the validation and verification. Results showed that the second and third modified approaches lead to reasonable improvement of the PSA technique. All approaches implemented in this study were similar in that they have the capability to (1 identify and isolate a drifted sensor that should undergo calibration, (2 identify a faulty sensor/s due to long and continuous missing data range, and (3 identify a healthy sensor. Keywords: Nuclear Reactors

Evaluation of circularity error in drilling of syntactic foam composites

Science.gov (United States)

Ashrith H., S.; Doddamani, Mrityunjay; Gaitonde, Vinayak

2018-04-01

Syntactic foams are widely used in structural applications of automobiles, aircrafts and underwater vehicles due to their lightweight properties combined with high compression strength and low moisture absorption. Structural application requires drilling of holes for assembly purpose. In this investigation response surface methodology based mathematical models are used to analyze the effects of cutting speed, feed, drill diameter and filler content on circularity error both at entry and exit level in drilling of glass microballoon reinforced epoxy syntactic foam. Experiments are conducted based on full factorial design using solid coated tungsten carbide twist drills. The parametric analysis reveals that circularity error is highly influenced by drill diameter followed by spindle speed at the entry and exit level. Parametric analysis also reveals that increasing filler content decreases circularity error by 13.65 and 11.96% respectively at entry and exit levels. Average circularity error at the entry level is found to be 23.73% higher than at the exit level.

Re-Normalization Method of Doppler Lidar Signal for Error Reduction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Nakgyu; Baik, Sunghoon; Park, Seungkyu; Kim, Donglyul [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Dukhyeon [Hanbat National Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-05-15

In this paper, we presented a re-normalization method for the fluctuations of Doppler signals from the various noises mainly due to the frequency locking error for a Doppler lidar system. For the Doppler lidar system, we used an injection-seeded pulsed Nd:YAG laser as the transmitter and an iodine filter as the Doppler frequency discriminator. For the Doppler frequency shift measurement, the transmission ratio using the injection-seeded laser is locked to stabilize the frequency. If the frequency locking system is not perfect, the Doppler signal has some error due to the frequency locking error. The re-normalization process of the Doppler signals was performed to reduce this error using an additional laser beam to an Iodine cell. We confirmed that the renormalized Doppler signal shows the stable experimental data much more than that of the averaged Doppler signal using our calibration method, the reduced standard deviation was 4.838 Χ 10{sup -3}.

Reducing Approximation Error in the Fourier Flexible Functional Form

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Tristan D. Skolrud

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The Fourier Flexible form provides a global approximation to an unknown data generating process. In terms of limiting function specification error, this form is preferable to functional forms based on second-order Taylor series expansions. The Fourier Flexible form is a truncated Fourier series expansion appended to a second-order expansion in logarithms. By replacing the logarithmic expansion with a Box-Cox transformation, we show that the Fourier Flexible form can reduce approximation error by 25% on average in the tails of the data distribution. The new functional form allows for nested testing of a larger set of commonly implemented functional forms.

How precise is the determination of the average radon concentration in buildings from measurements lasting only a few days

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janik, M.; Loskiewicz, J.; Olko, P.; Swakon, J.

1998-01-01

Radon concentration in outdoor air and in buildings is very variable, showing diurnal and seasonal variations. Long term track etch detectors measurements lasting up to one year give the most precise one year averages. It arrives, however, that we are obliged to get results much sooner e.g. for screening measurements. How long should we measure to get proper results? We have studied the problem of selecting proper time interval on the basis of our five long term (ca. 30 days) measurements in Cracow using AlphaGUARD ionization chamber detector. The mean radon concentration ranged from 543 to 1107 Bq/m 3 . It was found that the relative error of k day average was decreasing exponentially with a time constant of 4 days. Therefore we recommended a minimal measuring time of four (k = 4) and better six days. (author)

Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/Large Eddy Simulation of the Flow in a Model SCRamjet Cavity Flameholder

Science.gov (United States)

Baurle, R. A.

2016-01-01

Steady-state and scale-resolving simulations have been performed for flow in and around a model scramjet combustor flameholder. Experimental data available for this configuration include velocity statistics obtained from particle image velocimetry. Several turbulence models were used for the steady-state Reynolds-averaged simulations which included both linear and non-linear eddy viscosity models. The scale-resolving simulations used a hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large eddy simulation strategy that is designed to be a large eddy simulation everywhere except in the inner portion (log layer and below) of the boundary layer. Hence, this formulation can be regarded as a wall-modeled large eddy simulation. This e ort was undertaken to not only assess the performance of the hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation modeling approach in a flowfield of interest to the scramjet research community, but to also begin to understand how this capability can best be used to augment standard Reynolds-averaged simulations. The numerical errors were quantified for the steady-state simulations, and at least qualitatively assessed for the scale-resolving simulations prior to making any claims of predictive accuracy relative to the measurements. The steady-state Reynolds-averaged results displayed a high degree of variability when comparing the flameholder fuel distributions obtained from each turbulence model. This prompted the consideration of applying the higher-fidelity scale-resolving simulations as a surrogate "truth" model to calibrate the Reynolds-averaged closures in a non-reacting setting prior to their use for the combusting simulations. In general, the Reynolds-averaged velocity profile predictions at the lowest fueling level matched the particle imaging measurements almost as well as was observed for the non-reacting condition. However, the velocity field predictions proved to be more sensitive to the flameholder fueling rate than was indicated in the measurements.

Forecast errors in IEA-countries' energy consumption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Linderoth, Hans

2002-01-01

Every year Policy of IEA Countries includes a forecast of the energy consumption in the member countries. Forecasts concerning the years 1985,1990 and 1995 can now be compared to actual values. The second oil crisis resulted in big positive forecast errors. The oil price drop in 1986 did not have...... the small value is often the sum of large positive and negative errors. Almost no significant correlation is found between forecast errors in the 3 years. Correspondingly, no significant correlation coefficient is found between forecasts errors in the 3 main energy sectors. Therefore, a relatively small...

Analysis of error patterns in clinical radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Macklis, Roger; Meier, Tim; Barrett, Patricia; Weinhous, Martin

1996-01-01

Purpose: Until very recently, prescription errors and adverse treatment events have rarely been studied or reported systematically in oncology. We wished to understand the spectrum and severity of radiotherapy errors that take place on a day-to-day basis in a high-volume academic practice and to understand the resource needs and quality assurance challenges placed on a department by rapid upswings in contract-based clinical volumes requiring additional operating hours, procedures, and personnel. The goal was to define clinical benchmarks for operating safety and to detect error-prone treatment processes that might function as 'early warning' signs. Methods: A multi-tiered prospective and retrospective system for clinical error detection and classification was developed, with formal analysis of the antecedents and consequences of all deviations from prescribed treatment delivery, no matter how trivial. A department-wide record-and-verify system was operational during this period and was used as one method of treatment verification and error detection. Brachytherapy discrepancies were analyzed separately. Results: During the analysis year, over 2000 patients were treated with over 93,000 individual fields. A total of 59 errors affecting a total of 170 individual treated fields were reported or detected during this period. After review, all of these errors were classified as Level 1 (minor discrepancy with essentially no potential for negative clinical implications). This total treatment delivery error rate (170/93, 332 or 0.18%) is significantly better than corresponding error rates reported for other hospital and oncology treatment services, perhaps reflecting the relatively sophisticated error avoidance and detection procedures used in modern clinical radiation oncology. Error rates were independent of linac model and manufacturer, time of day (normal operating hours versus late evening or early morning) or clinical machine volumes. There was some relationship to

Task errors by emergency physicians are associated with interruptions, multitasking, fatigue and working memory capacity: a prospective, direct observation study.

Science.gov (United States)

Westbrook, Johanna I; Raban, Magdalena Z; Walter, Scott R; Douglas, Heather

2018-01-09

Interruptions and multitasking have been demonstrated in experimental studies to reduce individuals' task performance. These behaviours are frequently used by clinicians in high-workload, dynamic clinical environments, yet their effects have rarely been studied. To assess the relative contributions of interruptions and multitasking by emergency physicians to prescribing errors. 36 emergency physicians were shadowed over 120 hours. All tasks, interruptions and instances of multitasking were recorded. Physicians' working memory capacity (WMC) and preference for multitasking were assessed using the Operation Span Task (OSPAN) and Inventory of Polychronic Values. Following observation, physicians were asked about their sleep in the previous 24 hours. Prescribing errors were used as a measure of task performance. We performed multivariate analysis of prescribing error rates to determine associations with interruptions and multitasking, also considering physician seniority, age, psychometric measures, workload and sleep. Physicians experienced 7.9 interruptions/hour. 28 clinicians were observed prescribing 239 medication orders which contained 208 prescribing errors. While prescribing, clinicians were interrupted 9.4 times/hour. Error rates increased significantly if physicians were interrupted (rate ratio (RR) 2.82; 95% CI 1.23 to 6.49) or multitasked (RR 1.86; 95% CI 1.35 to 2.56) while prescribing. Having below-average sleep showed a >15-fold increase in clinical error rate (RR 16.44; 95% CI 4.84 to 55.81). WMC was protective against errors; for every 10-point increase on the 75-point OSPAN, a 19% decrease in prescribing errors was observed. There was no effect of polychronicity, workload, physician gender or above-average sleep on error rates. Interruptions, multitasking and poor sleep were associated with significantly increased rates of prescribing errors among emergency physicians. WMC mitigated the negative influence of these factors to an extent. These

Error Cost Escalation Through the Project Life Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Stecklein, Jonette M.; Dabney, Jim; Dick, Brandon; Haskins, Bill; Lovell, Randy; Moroney, Gregory

2004-01-01

It is well known that the costs to fix errors increase as the project matures, but how fast do those costs build? A study was performed to determine the relative cost of fixing errors discovered during various phases of a project life cycle. This study used three approaches to determine the relative costs: the bottom-up cost method, the total cost breakdown method, and the top-down hypothetical project method. The approaches and results described in this paper presume development of a hardware/software system having project characteristics similar to those used in the development of a large, complex spacecraft, a military aircraft, or a small communications satellite. The results show the degree to which costs escalate, as errors are discovered and fixed at later and later phases in the project life cycle. If the cost of fixing a requirements error discovered during the requirements phase is defined to be 1 unit, the cost to fix that error if found during the design phase increases to 3 - 8 units; at the manufacturing/build phase, the cost to fix the error is 7 - 16 units; at the integration and test phase, the cost to fix the error becomes 21 - 78 units; and at the operations phase, the cost to fix the requirements error ranged from 29 units to more than 1500 units

On the Spatial and Temporal Sampling Errors of Remotely Sensed Precipitation Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Behrangi

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Observation with coarse spatial and temporal sampling can cause large errors in quantification of the amount, intensity, and duration of precipitation events. In this study, the errors resulting from temporal and spatial sampling of precipitation events were quantified and examined using the latest version (V4 of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM mission integrated multi-satellite retrievals for GPM (IMERG, which is available since spring of 2014. Relative mean square error was calculated at 0.1° × 0.1° every 0.5 h between the degraded (temporally and spatially and original IMERG products. The temporal and spatial degradation was performed by producing three-hour (T3, six-hour (T6, 0.5° × 0.5° (S5, and 1.0° × 1.0° (S10 maps. The results show generally larger errors over land than ocean, especially over mountainous regions. The relative error of T6 is almost 20% larger than T3 over tropical land, but is smaller in higher latitudes. Over land relative error of T6 is larger than S5 across all latitudes, while T6 has larger relative error than S10 poleward of 20°S–20°N. Similarly, the relative error of T3 exceeds S5 poleward of 20°S–20°N, but does not exceed S10, except in very high latitudes. Similar results are also seen over ocean, but the error ratios are generally less sensitive to seasonal changes. The results also show that the spatial and temporal relative errors are not highly correlated. Overall, lower correlations between the spatial and temporal relative errors are observed over ocean than over land. Quantification of such spatiotemporal effects provides additional insights into evaluation studies, especially when different products are cross-compared at a range of spatiotemporal scales.

Error forecasting schemes of error correction at receiver

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhunia, C.T.

2007-08-01

To combat error in computer communication networks, ARQ (Automatic Repeat Request) techniques are used. Recently Chakraborty has proposed a simple technique called the packet combining scheme in which error is corrected at the receiver from the erroneous copies. Packet Combining (PC) scheme fails: (i) when bit error locations in erroneous copies are the same and (ii) when multiple bit errors occur. Both these have been addressed recently by two schemes known as Packet Reversed Packet Combining (PRPC) Scheme, and Modified Packet Combining (MPC) Scheme respectively. In the letter, two error forecasting correction schemes are reported, which in combination with PRPC offer higher throughput. (author)

Dissociable genetic contributions to error processing: a multimodal neuroimaging study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yigal Agam

Full Text Available Neuroimaging studies reliably identify two markers of error commission: the error-related negativity (ERN, an event-related potential, and functional MRI activation of the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC. While theorized to reflect the same neural process, recent evidence suggests that the ERN arises from the posterior cingulate cortex not the dACC. Here, we tested the hypothesis that these two error markers also have different genetic mediation.We measured both error markers in a sample of 92 comprised of healthy individuals and those with diagnoses of schizophrenia, obsessive-compulsive disorder or autism spectrum disorder. Participants performed the same task during functional MRI and simultaneously acquired magnetoencephalography and electroencephalography. We examined the mediation of the error markers by two single nucleotide polymorphisms: dopamine D4 receptor (DRD4 C-521T (rs1800955, which has been associated with the ERN and methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR C677T (rs1801133, which has been associated with error-related dACC activation. We then compared the effects of each polymorphism on the two error markers modeled as a bivariate response.We replicated our previous report of a posterior cingulate source of the ERN in healthy participants in the schizophrenia and obsessive-compulsive disorder groups. The effect of genotype on error markers did not differ significantly by diagnostic group. DRD4 C-521T allele load had a significant linear effect on ERN amplitude, but not on dACC activation, and this difference was significant. MTHFR C677T allele load had a significant linear effect on dACC activation but not ERN amplitude, but the difference in effects on the two error markers was not significant.DRD4 C-521T, but not MTHFR C677T, had a significant differential effect on two canonical error markers. Together with the anatomical dissociation between the ERN and error-related dACC activation, these findings suggest that

Characteristics of patients making serious inhaler errors with a dry powder inhaler and association with asthma-related events in a primary care setting

Science.gov (United States)

Westerik, Janine A. M.; Carter, Victoria; Chrystyn, Henry; Burden, Anne; Thompson, Samantha L.; Ryan, Dermot; Gruffydd-Jones, Kevin; Haughney, John; Roche, Nicolas; Lavorini, Federico; Papi, Alberto; Infantino, Antonio; Roman-Rodriguez, Miguel; Bosnic-Anticevich, Sinthia; Lisspers, Karin; Ställberg, Björn; Henrichsen, Svein Høegh; van der Molen, Thys; Hutton, Catherine; Price, David B.

2016-01-01

Abstract Objective: Correct inhaler technique is central to effective delivery of asthma therapy. The study aim was to identify factors associated with serious inhaler technique errors and their prevalence among primary care patients with asthma using the Diskus dry powder inhaler (DPI). Methods: This was a historical, multinational, cross-sectional study (2011–2013) using the iHARP database, an international initiative that includes patient- and healthcare provider-reported questionnaires from eight countries. Patients with asthma were observed for serious inhaler errors by trained healthcare providers as predefined by the iHARP steering committee. Multivariable logistic regression, stepwise reduced, was used to identify clinical characteristics and asthma-related outcomes associated with ≥1 serious errors. Results: Of 3681 patients with asthma, 623 (17%) were using a Diskus (mean [SD] age, 51 [14]; 61% women). A total of 341 (55%) patients made ≥1 serious errors. The most common errors were the failure to exhale before inhalation, insufficient breath-hold at the end of inhalation, and inhalation that was not forceful from the start. Factors significantly associated with ≥1 serious errors included asthma-related hospitalization the previous year (odds ratio [OR] 2.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26–3.40); obesity (OR 1.75; 1.17–2.63); poor asthma control the previous 4 weeks (OR 1.57; 1.04–2.36); female sex (OR 1.51; 1.08–2.10); and no inhaler technique review during the previous year (OR 1.45; 1.04–2.02). Conclusions: Patients with evidence of poor asthma control should be targeted for a review of their inhaler technique even when using a device thought to have a low error rate. PMID:26810934

Prediction of monthly average global solar radiation based on statistical distribution of clearness index

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayodele, T.R.; Ogunjuyigbe, A.S.O.

2015-01-01

In this paper, probability distribution of clearness index is proposed for the prediction of global solar radiation. First, the clearness index is obtained from the past data of global solar radiation, then, the parameters of the appropriate distribution that best fit the clearness index are determined. The global solar radiation is thereafter predicted from the clearness index using inverse transformation of the cumulative distribution function. To validate the proposed method, eight years global solar radiation data (2000–2007) of Ibadan, Nigeria are used to determine the parameters of appropriate probability distribution for clearness index. The calculated parameters are then used to predict the future monthly average global solar radiation for the following year (2008). The predicted values are compared with the measured values using four statistical tests: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and the coefficient of determination (R"2). The proposed method is also compared to the existing regression models. The results show that logistic distribution provides the best fit for clearness index of Ibadan and the proposed method is effective in predicting the monthly average global solar radiation with overall RMSE of 0.383 MJ/m"2/day, MAE of 0.295 MJ/m"2/day, MAPE of 2% and R"2 of 0.967. - Highlights: • Distribution of clearnes index is proposed for prediction of global solar radiation. • The clearness index is obtained from the past data of global solar radiation. • The parameters of distribution that best fit the clearness index are determined. • Solar radiation is predicted from the clearness index using inverse transformation. • The method is effective in predicting the monthly average global solar radiation.

Republished error management: Descriptions of verbal communication errors between staff. An analysis of 84 root cause analysis-reports from Danish hospitals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rabøl, Louise Isager; Andersen, Mette Lehmann; Østergaard, Doris

2011-01-01

Introduction Poor teamwork and communication between healthcare staff are correlated to patient safety incidents. However, the organisational factors responsible for these issues are unexplored. Root cause analyses (RCA) use human factors thinking to analyse the systems behind severe patient safety...... (30%)), communication errors between junior and senior staff members (11 (25%)), hesitance in speaking up (10 (23%)) and communication errors during teamwork (8 (18%)). The kappa values were 0.44-0.78. Unproceduralized communication and information exchange via telephone, related to transfer between...... incidents. The RCARs rich descriptions of the incidents revealed the organisational factors and needs related to these errors....

The estimation of differential counting measurements of possitive quantities with relatively large statistical errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vincent, C.H.

1982-01-01

Bayes' principle is applied to the differential counting measurement of a positive quantity in which the statistical errors are not necessarily small in relation to the true value of the quantity. The methods of estimation derived are found to give consistent results and to avoid the anomalous negative estimates sometimes obtained by conventional methods. One of the methods given provides a simple means of deriving the required estimates from conventionally presented results and appears to have wide potential applications. Both methods provide the actual posterior probability distribution of the quantity to be measured. A particularly important potential application is the correction of counts on low radioacitvity samples for background. (orig.)

How to average logarithmic retrievals?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Funke

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Calculation of mean trace gas contributions from profiles obtained by retrievals of the logarithm of the abundance rather than retrievals of the abundance itself are prone to biases. By means of a system simulator, biases of linear versus logarithmic averaging were evaluated for both maximum likelihood and maximum a priori retrievals, for various signal to noise ratios and atmospheric variabilities. These biases can easily reach ten percent or more. As a rule of thumb we found for maximum likelihood retrievals that linear averaging better represents the true mean value in cases of large local natural variability and high signal to noise ratios, while for small local natural variability logarithmic averaging often is superior. In the case of maximum a posteriori retrievals, the mean is dominated by the a priori information used in the retrievals and the method of averaging is of minor concern. For larger natural variabilities, the appropriateness of the one or the other method of averaging depends on the particular case because the various biasing mechanisms partly compensate in an unpredictable manner. This complication arises mainly because of the fact that in logarithmic retrievals the weight of the prior information depends on abundance of the gas itself. No simple rule was found on which kind of averaging is superior, and instead of suggesting simple recipes we cannot do much more than to create awareness of the traps related with averaging of mixing ratios obtained from logarithmic retrievals.

Measurement of tokamak error fields using plasma response and its applicability to ITER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strait, E.J.; Buttery, R.J.; Chu, M.S.; Garofalo, A.M.; La Haye, R.J.; Schaffer, M.J.; Casper, T.A.; Gribov, Y.; Hanson, J.M.; Reimerdes, H.; Volpe, F.A.

2014-01-01

The nonlinear response of a low-beta tokamak plasma to non-axisymmetric fields offers an alternative to direct measurement of the non-axisymmetric part of the vacuum magnetic fields, often termed ‘error fields’. Possible approaches are discussed for determination of error fields and the required current in non-axisymmetric correction coils, with an emphasis on two relatively new methods: measurement of the torque balance on a saturated magnetic island, and measurement of the braking of plasma rotation in the absence of an island. The former is well suited to ohmically heated discharges, while the latter is more appropriate for discharges with a modest amount of neutral beam heating to drive rotation. Both can potentially provide continuous measurements during a discharge, subject to the limitation of a minimum averaging time. The applicability of these methods to ITER is discussed, and an estimate is made of their uncertainties in light of the specifications of ITER's diagnostic systems. The use of plasma response-based techniques in normal ITER operational scenarios may allow identification of the error field contributions by individual central solenoid coils, but identification of the individual contributions by the outer poloidal field coils or other sources is less likely to be feasible. (paper)

Estimation of sampling error uncertainties in observed surface air temperature change in China

Science.gov (United States)

Hua, Wei; Shen, Samuel S. P.; Weithmann, Alexander; Wang, Huijun

2017-08-01

This study examines the sampling error uncertainties in the monthly surface air temperature (SAT) change in China over recent decades, focusing on the uncertainties of gridded data, national averages, and linear trends. Results indicate that large sampling error variances appear at the station-sparse area of northern and western China with the maximum value exceeding 2.0 K2 while small sampling error variances are found at the station-dense area of southern and eastern China with most grid values being less than 0.05 K2. In general, the negative temperature existed in each month prior to the 1980s, and a warming in temperature began thereafter, which accelerated in the early and mid-1990s. The increasing trend in the SAT series was observed for each month of the year with the largest temperature increase and highest uncertainty of 0.51 ± 0.29 K (10 year)-1 occurring in February and the weakest trend and smallest uncertainty of 0.13 ± 0.07 K (10 year)-1 in August. The sampling error uncertainties in the national average annual mean SAT series are not sufficiently large to alter the conclusion of the persistent warming in China. In addition, the sampling error uncertainties in the SAT series show a clear variation compared with other uncertainty estimation methods, which is a plausible reason for the inconsistent variations between our estimate and other studies during this period.

Average Rate of Heat-Related Hospitalizations in 23 States, 2001-2010

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This map shows the 2001–2010 average rate of hospitalizations classified as “heat-related” by medical professionals in 23 states that participate in CDC’s...

Analyzing temozolomide medication errors: potentially fatal.

Science.gov (United States)

Letarte, Nathalie; Gabay, Michael P; Bressler, Linda R; Long, Katie E; Stachnik, Joan M; Villano, J Lee

2014-10-01

The EORTC-NCIC regimen for glioblastoma requires different dosing of temozolomide (TMZ) during radiation and maintenance therapy. This complexity is exacerbated by the availability of multiple TMZ capsule strengths. TMZ is an alkylating agent and the major toxicity of this class is dose-related myelosuppression. Inadvertent overdose can be fatal. The websites of the Institute for Safe Medication Practices (ISMP), and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) MedWatch database were reviewed. We searched the MedWatch database for adverse events associated with TMZ and obtained all reports including hematologic toxicity submitted from 1st November 1997 to 30th May 2012. The ISMP describes errors with TMZ resulting from the positioning of information on the label of the commercial product. The strength and quantity of capsules on the label were in close proximity to each other, and this has been changed by the manufacturer. MedWatch identified 45 medication errors. Patient errors were the most common, accounting for 21 or 47% of errors, followed by dispensing errors, which accounted for 13 or 29%. Seven reports or 16% were errors in the prescribing of TMZ. Reported outcomes ranged from reversible hematological adverse events (13%), to hospitalization for other adverse events (13%) or death (18%). Four error reports lacked detail and could not be categorized. Although the FDA issued a warning in 2003 regarding fatal medication errors and the product label warns of overdosing, errors in TMZ dosing occur for various reasons and involve both healthcare professionals and patients. Overdosing errors can be fatal.

Common Errors in Ecological Data Sharing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert B. Cook

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Objectives: (1 to identify common errors in data organization and metadata completeness that would preclude a “reader” from being able to interpret and re-use the data for a new purpose; and (2 to develop a set of best practices derived from these common errors that would guide researchers in creating more usable data products that could be readily shared, interpreted, and used.Methods: We used directed qualitative content analysis to assess and categorize data and metadata errors identified by peer reviewers of data papers published in the Ecological Society of America’s (ESA Ecological Archives. Descriptive statistics provided the relative frequency of the errors identified during the peer review process.Results: There were seven overarching error categories: Collection & Organization, Assure, Description, Preserve, Discover, Integrate, and Analyze/Visualize. These categories represent errors researchers regularly make at each stage of the Data Life Cycle. Collection & Organization and Description errors were some of the most common errors, both of which occurred in over 90% of the papers.Conclusions: Publishing data for sharing and reuse is error prone, and each stage of the Data Life Cycle presents opportunities for mistakes. The most common errors occurred when the researcher did not provide adequate metadata to enable others to interpret and potentially re-use the data. Fortunately, there are ways to minimize these mistakes through carefully recording all details about study context, data collection, QA/ QC, and analytical procedures from the beginning of a research project and then including this descriptive information in the metadata.

Collection of offshore human error probability data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basra, Gurpreet; Kirwan, Barry

1998-01-01

Accidents such as Piper Alpha have increased concern about the effects of human errors in complex systems. Such accidents can in theory be predicted and prevented by risk assessment, and in particular human reliability assessment (HRA), but HRA ideally requires qualitative and quantitative human error data. A research initiative at the University of Birmingham led to the development of CORE-DATA, a Computerised Human Error Data Base. This system currently contains a reasonably large number of human error data points, collected from a variety of mainly nuclear-power related sources. This article outlines a recent offshore data collection study, concerned with collecting lifeboat evacuation data. Data collection methods are outlined and a selection of human error probabilities generated as a result of the study are provided. These data give insights into the type of errors and human failure rates that could be utilised to support offshore risk analyses

Human error mechanisms in complex work environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmussen, J.

1988-01-01

Human error taxonomies have been developed from analysis of industrial incident reports as well as from psychological experiments. In this paper the results of the two approaches are reviewed and compared. It is found, in both cases, that a fairly small number of basic psychological mechanisms will account for most of the action errors observed. In addition, error mechanisms appear to be intimately related to the development of high skill and know-how in a complex work context. This relationship between errors and human adaptation is discussed in detail for individuals and organisations. The implications for system safety and briefly mentioned, together with the implications for system design. (author)

Human error mechanisms in complex work environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmussen, Jens; Danmarks Tekniske Hoejskole, Copenhagen)

1988-01-01

Human error taxonomies have been developed from analysis of industrial incident reports as well as from psychological experiments. In this paper the results of the two approaches are reviewed and compared. It is found, in both cases, that a fairly small number of basic psychological mechanisms will account for most of the action errors observed. In addition, error mechanisms appear to be intimately related to the development of high skill and know-how in a complex work context. This relationship between errors and human adaptation is discussed in detail for individuals and organisations. The implications for system safety are briefly mentioned, together with the implications for system design. (author)

Fixturing error measurement and analysis using CMMs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Y; Chen, X; Gindy, N

2005-01-01

Influence of fixture on the errors of a machined surface can be very significant. The machined surface errors generated during machining can be measured by using a coordinate measurement machine (CMM) through the displacements of three coordinate systems on a fixture-workpiece pair in relation to the deviation of the machined surface. The surface errors consist of the component movement, component twist, deviation between actual machined surface and defined tool path. A turbine blade fixture for grinding operation is used for case study

The next organizational challenge: finding and addressing diagnostic error.

Science.gov (United States)

Graber, Mark L; Trowbridge, Robert; Myers, Jennifer S; Umscheid, Craig A; Strull, William; Kanter, Michael H

2014-03-01

Although health care organizations (HCOs) are intensely focused on improving the safety of health care, efforts to date have almost exclusively targeted treatment-related issues. The literature confirms that the approaches HCOs use to identify adverse medical events are not effective in finding diagnostic errors, so the initial challenge is to identify cases of diagnostic error. WHY HEALTH CARE ORGANIZATIONS NEED TO GET INVOLVED: HCOs are preoccupied with many quality- and safety-related operational and clinical issues, including performance measures. The case for paying attention to diagnostic errors, however, is based on the following four points: (1) diagnostic errors are common and harmful, (2) high-quality health care requires high-quality diagnosis, (3) diagnostic errors are costly, and (4) HCOs are well positioned to lead the way in reducing diagnostic error. FINDING DIAGNOSTIC ERRORS: Current approaches to identifying diagnostic errors, such as occurrence screens, incident reports, autopsy, and peer review, were not designed to detect diagnostic issues (or problems of omission in general) and/or rely on voluntary reporting. The realization that the existing tools are inadequate has spurred efforts to identify novel tools that could be used to discover diagnostic errors or breakdowns in the diagnostic process that are associated with errors. New approaches--Maine Medical Center's case-finding of diagnostic errors by facilitating direct reports from physicians and Kaiser Permanente's electronic health record--based reports that detect process breakdowns in the followup of abnormal findings--are described in case studies. By raising awareness and implementing targeted programs that address diagnostic error, HCOs may begin to play an important role in addressing the problem of diagnostic error.

Grammatical Errors Produced by English Majors: The Translation Task

Science.gov (United States)

Mohaghegh, Hamid; Zarandi, Fatemeh Mahmoudi; Shariati, Mohammad

2011-01-01

This study investigated the frequency of the grammatical errors related to the four categories of preposition, relative pronoun, article, and tense using the translation task. In addition, the frequencies of these grammatical errors in different categories and in each category were examined. The quantitative component of the study further looked…

Correcting a fundamental error in greenhouse gas accounting related to bioenergy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haberl, Helmut; Sprinz, Detlef; Bonazountas, Marc; Cocco, Pierluigi; Desaubies, Yves; Henze, Mogens; Hertel, Ole; Johnson, Richard K.; Kastrup, Ulrike; Laconte, Pierre; Lange, Eckart; Novak, Peter; Paavola, Jouni; Reenberg, Anette; Hove, Sybille van den

2012-01-01

Many international policies encourage a switch from fossil fuels to bioenergy based on the premise that its use would not result in carbon accumulation in the atmosphere. Frequently cited bioenergy goals would at least double the present global human use of plant material, the production of which already requires the dedication of roughly 75% of vegetated lands and more than 70% of water withdrawals. However, burning biomass for energy provision increases the amount of carbon in the air just like burning coal, oil or gas if harvesting the biomass decreases the amount of carbon stored in plants and soils, or reduces carbon sequestration. Neglecting this fact results in an accounting error that could be corrected by considering that only the use of ‘additional biomass’ – biomass from additional plant growth or biomass that would decompose rapidly if not used for bioenergy – can reduce carbon emissions. Failure to correct this accounting flaw will likely have substantial adverse consequences. The article presents recommendations for correcting greenhouse gas accounts related to bioenergy.

Correcting a fundamental error in greenhouse gas accounting related to bioenergy.

Science.gov (United States)

Haberl, Helmut; Sprinz, Detlef; Bonazountas, Marc; Cocco, Pierluigi; Desaubies, Yves; Henze, Mogens; Hertel, Ole; Johnson, Richard K; Kastrup, Ulrike; Laconte, Pierre; Lange, Eckart; Novak, Peter; Paavola, Jouni; Reenberg, Anette; van den Hove, Sybille; Vermeire, Theo; Wadhams, Peter; Searchinger, Timothy

2012-06-01

Many international policies encourage a switch from fossil fuels to bioenergy based on the premise that its use would not result in carbon accumulation in the atmosphere. Frequently cited bioenergy goals would at least double the present global human use of plant material, the production of which already requires the dedication of roughly 75% of vegetated lands and more than 70% of water withdrawals. However, burning biomass for energy provision increases the amount of carbon in the air just like burning coal, oil or gas if harvesting the biomass decreases the amount of carbon stored in plants and soils, or reduces carbon sequestration. Neglecting this fact results in an accounting error that could be corrected by considering that only the use of 'additional biomass' - biomass from additional plant growth or biomass that would decompose rapidly if not used for bioenergy - can reduce carbon emissions. Failure to correct this accounting flaw will likely have substantial adverse consequences. The article presents recommendations for correcting greenhouse gas accounts related to bioenergy.

Non-intercepted dose errors in prescribing anti-neoplastic treatment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mattsson, T O; Holm, B; Michelsen, H

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: The incidence of non-intercepted prescription errors and the risk factors involved, including the impact of computerised order entry (CPOE) systems on such errors, are unknown. Our objective was to determine the incidence, type, severity, and related risk factors of non-intercepted pr....... Strategies to prevent future prescription errors could usefully focus on integrated computerised systems that can aid dose calculations and reduce transcription errors between databases....

Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan

2014-01-01

Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval

Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

Science.gov (United States)

Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan

2014-09-01

Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan [Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor (Malaysia)

2014-09-12

Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

Study of Errors among Nursing Students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ella Koren

2007-09-01

Full Text Available The study of errors in the health system today is a topic of considerable interest aimed at reducing errors through analysis of the phenomenon and the conclusions reached. Errors that occur frequently among health professionals have also been observed among nursing students. True, in most cases they are actually “near errors,” but these could be a future indicator of therapeutic reality and the effect of nurses' work environment on their personal performance. There are two different approaches to such errors: (a The EPP (error prone person approach lays full responsibility at the door of the individual involved in the error, whether a student, nurse, doctor, or pharmacist. According to this approach, handling consists purely in identifying and penalizing the guilty party. (b The EPE (error prone environment approach emphasizes the environment as a primary contributory factor to errors. The environment as an abstract concept includes components and processes of interpersonal communications, work relations, human engineering, workload, pressures, technical apparatus, and new technologies. The objective of the present study was to examine the role played by factors in and components of personal performance as compared to elements and features of the environment. The study was based on both of the aforementioned approaches, which, when combined, enable a comprehensive understanding of the phenomenon of errors among the student population as well as a comparison of factors contributing to human error and to error deriving from the environment. The theoretical basis of the study was a model that combined both approaches: one focusing on the individual and his or her personal performance and the other focusing on the work environment. The findings emphasize the work environment of health professionals as an EPE. However, errors could have been avoided by means of strict adherence to practical procedures. The authors examined error events in the

Latency and mode of error detection as reflected in Swedish licensee event reports

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Svenson, Ola; Salo, Ilkka [Stockholm Univ., (Sweden). Dept. of Psychology

2002-03-01

Licensee event reports (LERs) from an industry provide important information feedback about safety to the industry itself, the regulators and to the public. LERs from four nuclear power reactors were analyzed to find out about detection times, mode of detection and qualitative differences in reports from different reactors. The reliability of the coding was satisfactory and measured as the covariance between the ratings from two independent judges. The results showed differences in detection time across the reactors. On the average about ten percent of the errors remained undetected for 100 weeks or more, but the great majority of errors were detected soon after their first appearance in the plant. On the average 40 percent of the errors were detected in regular tests and 40 per cent through alarms. Operators found about 10 per cent of the errors through noticing something abnormal in the plant. The remaining errors were detected in various other ways. There were qualitative differences between the LERs from the different reactors reflecting the different conditions in the plants. The number of reports differed by a magnitude 1:2 between the different plants. However, a greater number of LERs can indicate both higher safety standards (e.g., a greater willingness to report all possible events to be able to learn from them) and lower safety standards (e.g., reporting as few events as possible to make a good impression). It was pointed out that LERs are indispensable in order to maintain safety of an industry and that the differences between plants found in the analyses of this study indicate how error reports can be used to initiate further investigations for improved safety.

Latency and mode of error detection as reflected in Swedish licensee event reports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Svenson, Ola; Salo, Ilkka

2002-03-01

Licensee event reports (LERs) from an industry provide important information feedback about safety to the industry itself, the regulators and to the public. LERs from four nuclear power reactors were analyzed to find out about detection times, mode of detection and qualitative differences in reports from different reactors. The reliability of the coding was satisfactory and measured as the covariance between the ratings from two independent judges. The results showed differences in detection time across the reactors. On the average about ten percent of the errors remained undetected for 100 weeks or more, but the great majority of errors were detected soon after their first appearance in the plant. On the average 40 percent of the errors were detected in regular tests and 40 per cent through alarms. Operators found about 10 per cent of the errors through noticing something abnormal in the plant. The remaining errors were detected in various other ways. There were qualitative differences between the LERs from the different reactors reflecting the different conditions in the plants. The number of reports differed by a magnitude 1:2 between the different plants. However, a greater number of LERs can indicate both higher safety standards (e.g., a greater willingness to report all possible events to be able to learn from them) and lower safety standards (e.g., reporting as few events as possible to make a good impression). It was pointed out that LERs are indispensable in order to maintain safety of an industry and that the differences between plants found in the analyses of this study indicate how error reports can be used to initiate further investigations for improved safety

Averaging in spherically symmetric cosmology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coley, A. A.; Pelavas, N.

2007-01-01

The averaging problem in cosmology is of fundamental importance. When applied to study cosmological evolution, the theory of macroscopic gravity (MG) can be regarded as a long-distance modification of general relativity. In the MG approach to the averaging problem in cosmology, the Einstein field equations on cosmological scales are modified by appropriate gravitational correlation terms. We study the averaging problem within the class of spherically symmetric cosmological models. That is, we shall take the microscopic equations and effect the averaging procedure to determine the precise form of the correlation tensor in this case. In particular, by working in volume-preserving coordinates, we calculate the form of the correlation tensor under some reasonable assumptions on the form for the inhomogeneous gravitational field and matter distribution. We find that the correlation tensor in a Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) background must be of the form of a spatial curvature. Inhomogeneities and spatial averaging, through this spatial curvature correction term, can have a very significant dynamical effect on the dynamics of the Universe and cosmological observations; in particular, we discuss whether spatial averaging might lead to a more conservative explanation of the observed acceleration of the Universe (without the introduction of exotic dark matter fields). We also find that the correlation tensor for a non-FLRW background can be interpreted as the sum of a spatial curvature and an anisotropic fluid. This may lead to interesting effects of averaging on astrophysical scales. We also discuss the results of averaging an inhomogeneous Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi solution as well as calculations of linear perturbations (that is, the backreaction) in an FLRW background, which support the main conclusions of the analysis

The Pupillary Orienting Response Predicts Adaptive Behavioral Adjustment after Errors.

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Peter R Murphy

Full Text Available Reaction time (RT is commonly observed to slow down after an error. This post-error slowing (PES has been thought to arise from the strategic adoption of a more cautious response mode following deployment of cognitive control. Recently, an alternative account has suggested that PES results from interference due to an error-evoked orienting response. We investigated whether error-related orienting may in fact be a pre-cursor to adaptive post-error behavioral adjustment when the orienting response resolves before subsequent trial onset. We measured pupil dilation, a prototypical measure of autonomic orienting, during performance of a choice RT task with long inter-stimulus intervals, and found that the trial-by-trial magnitude of the error-evoked pupil response positively predicted both PES magnitude and the likelihood that the following response would be correct. These combined findings suggest that the magnitude of the error-related orienting response predicts an adaptive change of response strategy following errors, and thereby promote a reconciliation of the orienting and adaptive control accounts of PES.

Random measurement error: Why worry? An example of cardiovascular risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Brakenhoff, Timo B; van Smeden, Maarten; Visseren, Frank L J; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2018-01-01

With the increased use of data not originally recorded for research, such as routine care data (or 'big data'), measurement error is bound to become an increasingly relevant problem in medical research. A common view among medical researchers on the influence of random measurement error (i.e. classical measurement error) is that its presence leads to some degree of systematic underestimation of studied exposure-outcome relations (i.e. attenuation of the effect estimate). For the common situation where the analysis involves at least one exposure and one confounder, we demonstrate that the direction of effect of random measurement error on the estimated exposure-outcome relations can be difficult to anticipate. Using three example studies on cardiovascular risk factors, we illustrate that random measurement error in the exposure and/or confounder can lead to underestimation as well as overestimation of exposure-outcome relations. We therefore advise medical researchers to refrain from making claims about the direction of effect of measurement error in their manuscripts, unless the appropriate inferential tools are used to study or alleviate the impact of measurement error from the analysis.