WorldWideScience

Sample records for regression variable selection

  1. Variable and subset selection in PLS regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høskuldsson, Agnar

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present some useful methods for introductory analysis of variables and subsets in relation to PLS regression. We present here methods that are efficient in finding the appropriate variables or subset to use in the PLS regression. The general conclusion...... is that variable selection is important for successful analysis of chemometric data. An important aspect of the results presented is that lack of variable selection can spoil the PLS regression, and that cross-validation measures using a test set can show larger variation, when we use different subsets of X, than...

  2. Purposeful selection of variables in logistic regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Williams David Keith

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The main problem in many model-building situations is to choose from a large set of covariates those that should be included in the "best" model. A decision to keep a variable in the model might be based on the clinical or statistical significance. There are several variable selection algorithms in existence. Those methods are mechanical and as such carry some limitations. Hosmer and Lemeshow describe a purposeful selection of covariates within which an analyst makes a variable selection decision at each step of the modeling process. Methods In this paper we introduce an algorithm which automates that process. We conduct a simulation study to compare the performance of this algorithm with three well documented variable selection procedures in SAS PROC LOGISTIC: FORWARD, BACKWARD, and STEPWISE. Results We show that the advantage of this approach is when the analyst is interested in risk factor modeling and not just prediction. In addition to significant covariates, this variable selection procedure has the capability of retaining important confounding variables, resulting potentially in a slightly richer model. Application of the macro is further illustrated with the Hosmer and Lemeshow Worchester Heart Attack Study (WHAS data. Conclusion If an analyst is in need of an algorithm that will help guide the retention of significant covariates as well as confounding ones they should consider this macro as an alternative tool.

  3. Penalized variable selection in competing risks regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Zhixuan; Parikh, Chirag R; Zhou, Bingqing

    2017-07-01

    Penalized variable selection methods have been extensively studied for standard time-to-event data. Such methods cannot be directly applied when subjects are at risk of multiple mutually exclusive events, known as competing risks. The proportional subdistribution hazard (PSH) model proposed by Fine and Gray (J Am Stat Assoc 94:496-509, 1999) has become a popular semi-parametric model for time-to-event data with competing risks. It allows for direct assessment of covariate effects on the cumulative incidence function. In this paper, we propose a general penalized variable selection strategy that simultaneously handles variable selection and parameter estimation in the PSH model. We rigorously establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed penalized estimators and modify the coordinate descent algorithm for implementation. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the good performance of the proposed method. Data from deceased donor kidney transplants from the United Network of Organ Sharing illustrate the utility of the proposed method.

  4. Variable Selection for Regression Models of Percentile Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouad, G.

    2017-12-01

    Percentile flows describe the flow magnitude equaled or exceeded for a given percent of time, and are widely used in water resource management. However, these statistics are normally unavailable since most basins are ungauged. Percentile flows of ungauged basins are often predicted using regression models based on readily observable basin characteristics, such as mean elevation. The number of these independent variables is too large to evaluate all possible models. A subset of models is typically evaluated using automatic procedures, like stepwise regression. This ignores a large variety of methods from the field of feature (variable) selection and physical understanding of percentile flows. A study of 918 basins in the United States was conducted to compare an automatic regression procedure to the following variable selection methods: (1) principal component analysis, (2) correlation analysis, (3) random forests, (4) genetic programming, (5) Bayesian networks, and (6) physical understanding. The automatic regression procedure only performed better than principal component analysis. Poor performance of the regression procedure was due to a commonly used filter for multicollinearity, which rejected the strongest models because they had cross-correlated independent variables. Multicollinearity did not decrease model performance in validation because of a representative set of calibration basins. Variable selection methods based strictly on predictive power (numbers 2-5 from above) performed similarly, likely indicating a limit to the predictive power of the variables. Similar performance was also reached using variables selected based on physical understanding, a finding that substantiates recent calls to emphasize physical understanding in modeling for predictions in ungauged basins. The strongest variables highlighted the importance of geology and land cover, whereas widely used topographic variables were the weakest predictors. Variables suffered from a high

  5. Variable selection and model choice in geoadditive regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kneib, Thomas; Hothorn, Torsten; Tutz, Gerhard

    2009-06-01

    Model choice and variable selection are issues of major concern in practical regression analyses, arising in many biometric applications such as habitat suitability analyses, where the aim is to identify the influence of potentially many environmental conditions on certain species. We describe regression models for breeding bird communities that facilitate both model choice and variable selection, by a boosting algorithm that works within a class of geoadditive regression models comprising spatial effects, nonparametric effects of continuous covariates, interaction surfaces, and varying coefficients. The major modeling components are penalized splines and their bivariate tensor product extensions. All smooth model terms are represented as the sum of a parametric component and a smooth component with one degree of freedom to obtain a fair comparison between the model terms. A generic representation of the geoadditive model allows us to devise a general boosting algorithm that automatically performs model choice and variable selection.

  6. Variable selection in Logistic regression model with genetic algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongheng; Trevino, Victor; Hoseini, Sayed Shahabuddin; Belciug, Smaranda; Boopathi, Arumugam Manivanna; Zhang, Ping; Gorunescu, Florin; Subha, Velappan; Dai, Songshi

    2018-02-01

    Variable or feature selection is one of the most important steps in model specification. Especially in the case of medical-decision making, the direct use of a medical database, without a previous analysis and preprocessing step, is often counterproductive. In this way, the variable selection represents the method of choosing the most relevant attributes from the database in order to build a robust learning models and, thus, to improve the performance of the models used in the decision process. In biomedical research, the purpose of variable selection is to select clinically important and statistically significant variables, while excluding unrelated or noise variables. A variety of methods exist for variable selection, but none of them is without limitations. For example, the stepwise approach, which is highly used, adds the best variable in each cycle generally producing an acceptable set of variables. Nevertheless, it is limited by the fact that it commonly trapped in local optima. The best subset approach can systematically search the entire covariate pattern space, but the solution pool can be extremely large with tens to hundreds of variables, which is the case in nowadays clinical data. Genetic algorithms (GA) are heuristic optimization approaches and can be used for variable selection in multivariable regression models. This tutorial paper aims to provide a step-by-step approach to the use of GA in variable selection. The R code provided in the text can be extended and adapted to other data analysis needs.

  7. Exhaustive Search for Sparse Variable Selection in Linear Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igarashi, Yasuhiko; Takenaka, Hikaru; Nakanishi-Ohno, Yoshinori; Uemura, Makoto; Ikeda, Shiro; Okada, Masato

    2018-04-01

    We propose a K-sparse exhaustive search (ES-K) method and a K-sparse approximate exhaustive search method (AES-K) for selecting variables in linear regression. With these methods, K-sparse combinations of variables are tested exhaustively assuming that the optimal combination of explanatory variables is K-sparse. By collecting the results of exhaustively computing ES-K, various approximate methods for selecting sparse variables can be summarized as density of states. With this density of states, we can compare different methods for selecting sparse variables such as relaxation and sampling. For large problems where the combinatorial explosion of explanatory variables is crucial, the AES-K method enables density of states to be effectively reconstructed by using the replica-exchange Monte Carlo method and the multiple histogram method. Applying the ES-K and AES-K methods to type Ia supernova data, we confirmed the conventional understanding in astronomy when an appropriate K is given beforehand. However, we found the difficulty to determine K from the data. Using virtual measurement and analysis, we argue that this is caused by data shortage.

  8. Two-step variable selection in quantile regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FAN Yali

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We propose a two-step variable selection procedure for high dimensional quantile regressions, in which the dimension of the covariates, pn is much larger than the sample size n. In the first step, we perform ℓ1 penalty, and we demonstrate that the first step penalized estimator with the LASSO penalty can reduce the model from an ultra-high dimensional to a model whose size has the same order as that of the true model, and the selected model can cover the true model. The second step excludes the remained irrelevant covariates by applying the adaptive LASSO penalty to the reduced model obtained from the first step. Under some regularity conditions, we show that our procedure enjoys the model selection consistency. We conduct a simulation study and a real data analysis to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed approach.

  9. Variable selection in multiple linear regression: The influence of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    provide an indication of whether the fit of the selected model improves or ... and calculate M(−i); quantify the influence of case i in terms of a function, f(•), of M and ..... [21] Venter JH & Snyman JLJ, 1997, Linear model selection based on risk ...

  10. Sparse Reduced-Rank Regression for Simultaneous Dimension Reduction and Variable Selection

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Lisha; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2012-01-01

    and hence improves predictive accuracy. We propose to select relevant variables for reduced-rank regression by using a sparsity-inducing penalty. We apply a group-lasso type penalty that treats each row of the matrix of the regression coefficients as a group

  11. Sparse Reduced-Rank Regression for Simultaneous Dimension Reduction and Variable Selection

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Lisha

    2012-12-01

    The reduced-rank regression is an effective method in predicting multiple response variables from the same set of predictor variables. It reduces the number of model parameters and takes advantage of interrelations between the response variables and hence improves predictive accuracy. We propose to select relevant variables for reduced-rank regression by using a sparsity-inducing penalty. We apply a group-lasso type penalty that treats each row of the matrix of the regression coefficients as a group and show that this penalty satisfies certain desirable invariance properties. We develop two numerical algorithms to solve the penalized regression problem and establish the asymptotic consistency of the proposed method. In particular, the manifold structure of the reduced-rank regression coefficient matrix is considered and studied in our theoretical analysis. In our simulation study and real data analysis, the new method is compared with several existing variable selection methods for multivariate regression and exhibits competitive performance in prediction and variable selection. © 2012 American Statistical Association.

  12. Coupled variable selection for regression modeling of complex treatment patterns in a clinical cancer registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidtmann, I; Elsäßer, A; Weinmann, A; Binder, H

    2014-12-30

    For determining a manageable set of covariates potentially influential with respect to a time-to-event endpoint, Cox proportional hazards models can be combined with variable selection techniques, such as stepwise forward selection or backward elimination based on p-values, or regularized regression techniques such as component-wise boosting. Cox regression models have also been adapted for dealing with more complex event patterns, for example, for competing risks settings with separate, cause-specific hazard models for each event type, or for determining the prognostic effect pattern of a variable over different landmark times, with one conditional survival model for each landmark. Motivated by a clinical cancer registry application, where complex event patterns have to be dealt with and variable selection is needed at the same time, we propose a general approach for linking variable selection between several Cox models. Specifically, we combine score statistics for each covariate across models by Fisher's method as a basis for variable selection. This principle is implemented for a stepwise forward selection approach as well as for a regularized regression technique. In an application to data from hepatocellular carcinoma patients, the coupled stepwise approach is seen to facilitate joint interpretation of the different cause-specific Cox models. In conditional survival models at landmark times, which address updates of prediction as time progresses and both treatment and other potential explanatory variables may change, the coupled regularized regression approach identifies potentially important, stably selected covariates together with their effect time pattern, despite having only a small number of events. These results highlight the promise of the proposed approach for coupling variable selection between Cox models, which is particularly relevant for modeling for clinical cancer registries with their complex event patterns. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons

  13. Penalized regression procedures for variable selection in the potential outcomes framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Debashis; Zhu, Yeying; Coffman, Donna L

    2015-05-10

    A recent topic of much interest in causal inference is model selection. In this article, we describe a framework in which to consider penalized regression approaches to variable selection for causal effects. The framework leads to a simple 'impute, then select' class of procedures that is agnostic to the type of imputation algorithm as well as penalized regression used. It also clarifies how model selection involves a multivariate regression model for causal inference problems and that these methods can be applied for identifying subgroups in which treatment effects are homogeneous. Analogies and links with the literature on machine learning methods, missing data, and imputation are drawn. A difference least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm is defined, along with its multiple imputation analogs. The procedures are illustrated using a well-known right-heart catheterization dataset. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Joint Bayesian variable and graph selection for regression models with network-structured predictors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, C. B.; Stingo, F. C.; Vannucci, M.

    2015-01-01

    In this work, we develop a Bayesian approach to perform selection of predictors that are linked within a network. We achieve this by combining a sparse regression model relating the predictors to a response variable with a graphical model describing conditional dependencies among the predictors. The proposed method is well-suited for genomic applications since it allows the identification of pathways of functionally related genes or proteins which impact an outcome of interest. In contrast to previous approaches for network-guided variable selection, we infer the network among predictors using a Gaussian graphical model and do not assume that network information is available a priori. We demonstrate that our method outperforms existing methods in identifying network-structured predictors in simulation settings, and illustrate our proposed model with an application to inference of proteins relevant to glioblastoma survival. PMID:26514925

  15. Selecting minimum dataset soil variables using PLSR as a regressive multivariate method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stellacci, Anna Maria; Armenise, Elena; Castellini, Mirko; Rossi, Roberta; Vitti, Carolina; Leogrande, Rita; De Benedetto, Daniela; Ferrara, Rossana M.; Vivaldi, Gaetano A.

    2017-04-01

    Long-term field experiments and science-based tools that characterize soil status (namely the soil quality indices, SQIs) assume a strategic role in assessing the effect of agronomic techniques and thus in improving soil management especially in marginal environments. Selecting key soil variables able to best represent soil status is a critical step for the calculation of SQIs. Current studies show the effectiveness of statistical methods for variable selection to extract relevant information deriving from multivariate datasets. Principal component analysis (PCA) has been mainly used, however supervised multivariate methods and regressive techniques are progressively being evaluated (Armenise et al., 2013; de Paul Obade et al., 2016; Pulido Moncada et al., 2014). The present study explores the effectiveness of partial least square regression (PLSR) in selecting critical soil variables, using a dataset comparing conventional tillage and sod-seeding on durum wheat. The results were compared to those obtained using PCA and stepwise discriminant analysis (SDA). The soil data derived from a long-term field experiment in Southern Italy. On samples collected in April 2015, the following set of variables was quantified: (i) chemical: total organic carbon and nitrogen (TOC and TN), alkali-extractable C (TEC and humic substances - HA-FA), water extractable N and organic C (WEN and WEOC), Olsen extractable P, exchangeable cations, pH and EC; (ii) physical: texture, dry bulk density (BD), macroporosity (Pmac), air capacity (AC), and relative field capacity (RFC); (iii) biological: carbon of the microbial biomass quantified with the fumigation-extraction method. PCA and SDA were previously applied to the multivariate dataset (Stellacci et al., 2016). PLSR was carried out on mean centered and variance scaled data of predictors (soil variables) and response (wheat yield) variables using the PLS procedure of SAS/STAT. In addition, variable importance for projection (VIP

  16. Variable selection methods in PLS regression - a comparison study on metabolomics data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karaman, İbrahim; Hedemann, Mette Skou; Knudsen, Knud Erik Bach

    . The aim of the metabolomics study was to investigate the metabolic profile in pigs fed various cereal fractions with special attention to the metabolism of lignans using LC-MS based metabolomic approach. References 1. Lê Cao KA, Rossouw D, Robert-Granié C, Besse P: A Sparse PLS for Variable Selection when...... integrated approach. Due to the high number of variables in data sets (both raw data and after peak picking) the selection of important variables in an explorative analysis is difficult, especially when different data sets of metabolomics data need to be related. Variable selection (or removal of irrelevant...... different strategies for variable selection on PLSR method were considered and compared with respect to selected subset of variables and the possibility for biological validation. Sparse PLSR [1] as well as PLSR with Jack-knifing [2] was applied to data in order to achieve variable selection prior...

  17. Multi-omics facilitated variable selection in Cox-regression model for cancer prognosis prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Cong; Wang, Xujun; Genchev, Georgi Z; Lu, Hui

    2017-07-15

    New developments in high-throughput genomic technologies have enabled the measurement of diverse types of omics biomarkers in a cost-efficient and clinically-feasible manner. Developing computational methods and tools for analysis and translation of such genomic data into clinically-relevant information is an ongoing and active area of investigation. For example, several studies have utilized an unsupervised learning framework to cluster patients by integrating omics data. Despite such recent advances, predicting cancer prognosis using integrated omics biomarkers remains a challenge. There is also a shortage of computational tools for predicting cancer prognosis by using supervised learning methods. The current standard approach is to fit a Cox regression model by concatenating the different types of omics data in a linear manner, while penalty could be added for feature selection. A more powerful approach, however, would be to incorporate data by considering relationships among omics datatypes. Here we developed two methods: a SKI-Cox method and a wLASSO-Cox method to incorporate the association among different types of omics data. Both methods fit the Cox proportional hazards model and predict a risk score based on mRNA expression profiles. SKI-Cox borrows the information generated by these additional types of omics data to guide variable selection, while wLASSO-Cox incorporates this information as a penalty factor during model fitting. We show that SKI-Cox and wLASSO-Cox models select more true variables than a LASSO-Cox model in simulation studies. We assess the performance of SKI-Cox and wLASSO-Cox using TCGA glioblastoma multiforme and lung adenocarcinoma data. In each case, mRNA expression, methylation, and copy number variation data are integrated to predict the overall survival time of cancer patients. Our methods achieve better performance in predicting patients' survival in glioblastoma and lung adenocarcinoma. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier

  18. Comparison of Sparse and Jack-knife partial least squares regression methods for variable selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karaman, Ibrahim; Qannari, El Mostafa; Martens, Harald

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to compare two different techniques of variable selection, Sparse PLSR and Jack-knife PLSR, with respect to their predictive ability and their ability to identify relevant variables. Sparse PLSR is a method that is frequently used in genomics, whereas Jack-knife PL...

  19. FIRE: an SPSS program for variable selection in multiple linear regression analysis via the relative importance of predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzo-Seva, Urbano; Ferrando, Pere J

    2011-03-01

    We provide an SPSS program that implements currently recommended techniques and recent developments for selecting variables in multiple linear regression analysis via the relative importance of predictors. The approach consists of: (1) optimally splitting the data for cross-validation, (2) selecting the final set of predictors to be retained in the equation regression, and (3) assessing the behavior of the chosen model using standard indices and procedures. The SPSS syntax, a short manual, and data files related to this article are available as supplemental materials from brm.psychonomic-journals.org/content/supplemental.

  20. Subset selection in regression

    CERN Document Server

    Miller, Alan

    2002-01-01

    Originally published in 1990, the first edition of Subset Selection in Regression filled a significant gap in the literature, and its critical and popular success has continued for more than a decade. Thoroughly revised to reflect progress in theory, methods, and computing power, the second edition promises to continue that tradition. The author has thoroughly updated each chapter, incorporated new material on recent developments, and included more examples and references. New in the Second Edition:A separate chapter on Bayesian methodsComplete revision of the chapter on estimationA major example from the field of near infrared spectroscopyMore emphasis on cross-validationGreater focus on bootstrappingStochastic algorithms for finding good subsets from large numbers of predictors when an exhaustive search is not feasible Software available on the Internet for implementing many of the algorithms presentedMore examplesSubset Selection in Regression, Second Edition remains dedicated to the techniques for fitting...

  1. Variable importance in latent variable regression models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kvalheim, O.M.; Arneberg, R.; Bleie, O.; Rajalahti, T.; Smilde, A.K.; Westerhuis, J.A.

    2014-01-01

    The quality and practical usefulness of a regression model are a function of both interpretability and prediction performance. This work presents some new graphical tools for improved interpretation of latent variable regression models that can also assist in improved algorithms for variable

  2. Model selection for semiparametric marginal mean regression accounting for within-cluster subsampling variability and informative cluster size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Chung-Wei; Chen, Yi-Hau

    2018-03-13

    We propose a model selection criterion for semiparametric marginal mean regression based on generalized estimating equations. The work is motivated by a longitudinal study on the physical frailty outcome in the elderly, where the cluster size, that is, the number of the observed outcomes in each subject, is "informative" in the sense that it is related to the frailty outcome itself. The new proposal, called Resampling Cluster Information Criterion (RCIC), is based on the resampling idea utilized in the within-cluster resampling method (Hoffman, Sen, and Weinberg, 2001, Biometrika 88, 1121-1134) and accommodates informative cluster size. The implementation of RCIC, however, is free of performing actual resampling of the data and hence is computationally convenient. Compared with the existing model selection methods for marginal mean regression, the RCIC method incorporates an additional component accounting for variability of the model over within-cluster subsampling, and leads to remarkable improvements in selecting the correct model, regardless of whether the cluster size is informative or not. Applying the RCIC method to the longitudinal frailty study, we identify being female, old age, low income and life satisfaction, and chronic health conditions as significant risk factors for physical frailty in the elderly. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

  3. Genetic variability, partial regression, Co-heritability studies and their implication in selection of high yielding potato gen

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iqbal, Z.M.; Khan, S.A.

    2003-01-01

    Partial regression coefficient, genotypic and phenotypic variabilities, heritability co-heritability and genetic advance were studied in 15 Potato varieties of exotic and local origin. Both genotypic and phenotypic coefficients of variations were high for scab and rhizoctonia incidence percentage. Significant partial regression coefficient for emergence percentage indicated its relative importance in tuber yield. High heritability (broadsense) estimates coupled with high genetic advance for plant height, number of stems per plant and scab percentage revealed substantial contribution of additive genetic variance in the expression of these traits. Hence, the selection based on these characters could play a significant role in their improvement the dominance and epistatic variance was more important for character expression of yield ha/sup -1/, emergence and rhizoctonia percentage. This phenomenon is mainly due to the accumulative effects of low heritability and low to moderate genetic advance. The high co-heritability coupled with negative genotypic and phenotypic covariance revealed that selection of varieties having low scab and rhizoctonia percentage resulted in more potato yield. (author)

  4. Regional regression models of percentile flows for the contiguous United States: Expert versus data-driven independent variable selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geoffrey Fouad

    2018-06-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: A set of three variables selected based on an expert assessment of factors that influence percentile flows performed similarly to larger sets of variables selected using a data-driven method. Expert assessment variables included mean annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and baseflow index. Larger sets of up to 37 variables contributed little, if any, additional predictive information. Variables used to describe the distribution of basin data (e.g. standard deviation were not useful, and average values were sufficient to characterize physical and climatic basin conditions. Effectiveness of the expert assessment variables may be due to the high degree of multicollinearity (i.e. cross-correlation among additional variables. A tool is provided in the Supplementary material to predict percentile flows based on the three expert assessment variables. Future work should develop new variables with a strong understanding of the processes related to percentile flows.

  5. Interval ridge regression (iRR) as a fast and robust method for quantitative prediction and variable selection applied to edible oil adulteration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jović, Ozren; Smrečki, Neven; Popović, Zora

    2016-04-01

    A novel quantitative prediction and variable selection method called interval ridge regression (iRR) is studied in this work. The method is performed on six data sets of FTIR, two data sets of UV-vis and one data set of DSC. The obtained results show that models built with ridge regression on optimal variables selected with iRR significantly outperfom models built with ridge regression on all variables in both calibration (6 out of 9 cases) and validation (2 out of 9 cases). In this study, iRR is also compared with interval partial least squares regression (iPLS). iRR outperfomed iPLS in validation (insignificantly in 6 out of 9 cases and significantly in one out of 9 cases for poil, a well known health beneficial nutrient, is studied in this work by mixing it with cheap and widely used oils such as soybean (So) oil, rapeseed (R) oil and sunflower (Su) oil. Binary mixture sets of hempseed oil with these three oils (HSo, HR and HSu) and a ternary mixture set of H oil, R oil and Su oil (HRSu) were considered. The obtained accuracy indicates that using iRR on FTIR and UV-vis data, each particular oil can be very successfully quantified (in all 8 cases RMSEPoil (R(2)>0.99). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. transformation of independent variables in polynomial regression ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ada

    preferable when possible to work with a simple functional form in transformed variables rather than with a more complicated form in the original variables. In this paper, it is shown that linear transformations applied to independent variables in polynomial regression models affect the t ratio and hence the statistical ...

  7. Selecting a Regression Saturated by Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendry, David F.; Johansen, Søren; Santos, Carlos

    We consider selecting a regression model, using a variant of Gets, when there are more variables than observations, in the special case that the variables are impulse dummies (indicators) for every observation. We show that the setting is unproblematic if tackled appropriately, and obtain the fin...... the finite-sample distribution of estimators of the mean and variance in a simple location-scale model under the null that no impulses matter. A Monte Carlo simulation confirms the null distribution, and shows power against an alternative of interest....

  8. Selecting a Regression Saturated by Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendry, David F.; Johansen, Søren; Santos, Carlos

    We consider selecting a regression model, using a variant of Gets, when there are more variables than observations, in the special case that the variables are impulse dummies (indicators) for every observation. We show that the setting is unproblematic if tackled appropriately, and obtain the fin...... the finite-sample distribution of estimators of the mean and variance in a simple location-scale model under the null that no impulses matter. A Monte Carlo simulation confirms the null distribution, and shows power against an alternative of interest...

  9. Improved intact soil-core carbon determination applying regression shrinkage and variable selection techniques to complete spectrum laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bricklemyer, Ross S; Brown, David J; Turk, Philip J; Clegg, Sam M

    2013-10-01

    Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) provides a potential method for rapid, in situ soil C measurement. In previous research on the application of LIBS to intact soil cores, we hypothesized that ultraviolet (UV) spectrum LIBS (200-300 nm) might not provide sufficient elemental information to reliably discriminate between soil organic C (SOC) and inorganic C (IC). In this study, using a custom complete spectrum (245-925 nm) core-scanning LIBS instrument, we analyzed 60 intact soil cores from six wheat fields. Predictive multi-response partial least squares (PLS2) models using full and reduced spectrum LIBS were compared for directly determining soil total C (TC), IC, and SOC. Two regression shrinkage and variable selection approaches, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and sparse multivariate regression with covariance estimation (MRCE), were tested for soil C predictions and the identification of wavelengths important for soil C prediction. Using complete spectrum LIBS for PLS2 modeling reduced the calibration standard error of prediction (SEP) 15 and 19% for TC and IC, respectively, compared to UV spectrum LIBS. The LASSO and MRCE approaches provided significantly improved calibration accuracy and reduced SEP 32-55% over UV spectrum PLS2 models. We conclude that (1) complete spectrum LIBS is superior to UV spectrum LIBS for predicting soil C for intact soil cores without pretreatment; (2) LASSO and MRCE approaches provide improved calibration prediction accuracy over PLS2 but require additional testing with increased soil and target analyte diversity; and (3) measurement errors associated with analyzing intact cores (e.g., sample density and surface roughness) require further study and quantification.

  10. Model selection in kernel ridge regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Exterkate, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Kernel ridge regression is a technique to perform ridge regression with a potentially infinite number of nonlinear transformations of the independent variables as regressors. This method is gaining popularity as a data-rich nonlinear forecasting tool, which is applicable in many different contexts....... The influence of the choice of kernel and the setting of tuning parameters on forecast accuracy is investigated. Several popular kernels are reviewed, including polynomial kernels, the Gaussian kernel, and the Sinc kernel. The latter two kernels are interpreted in terms of their smoothing properties......, and the tuning parameters associated to all these kernels are related to smoothness measures of the prediction function and to the signal-to-noise ratio. Based on these interpretations, guidelines are provided for selecting the tuning parameters from small grids using cross-validation. A Monte Carlo study...

  11. Benchmarking Variable Selection in QSAR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eklund, Martin; Norinder, Ulf; Boyer, Scott; Carlsson, Lars

    2012-02-01

    Variable selection is important in QSAR modeling since it can improve model performance and transparency, as well as reduce the computational cost of model fitting and predictions. Which variable selection methods that perform well in QSAR settings is largely unknown. To address this question we, in a total of 1728 benchmarking experiments, rigorously investigated how eight variable selection methods affect the predictive performance and transparency of random forest models fitted to seven QSAR datasets covering different endpoints, descriptors sets, types of response variables, and number of chemical compounds. The results show that univariate variable selection methods are suboptimal and that the number of variables in the benchmarked datasets can be reduced with about 60 % without significant loss in model performance when using multivariate adaptive regression splines MARS and forward selection. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  12. Variable Selection via Partial Correlation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Runze; Liu, Jingyuan; Lou, Lejia

    2017-07-01

    Partial correlation based variable selection method was proposed for normal linear regression models by Bühlmann, Kalisch and Maathuis (2010) as a comparable alternative method to regularization methods for variable selection. This paper addresses two important issues related to partial correlation based variable selection method: (a) whether this method is sensitive to normality assumption, and (b) whether this method is valid when the dimension of predictor increases in an exponential rate of the sample size. To address issue (a), we systematically study this method for elliptical linear regression models. Our finding indicates that the original proposal may lead to inferior performance when the marginal kurtosis of predictor is not close to that of normal distribution. Our simulation results further confirm this finding. To ensure the superior performance of partial correlation based variable selection procedure, we propose a thresholded partial correlation (TPC) approach to select significant variables in linear regression models. We establish the selection consistency of the TPC in the presence of ultrahigh dimensional predictors. Since the TPC procedure includes the original proposal as a special case, our theoretical results address the issue (b) directly. As a by-product, the sure screening property of the first step of TPC was obtained. The numerical examples also illustrate that the TPC is competitively comparable to the commonly-used regularization methods for variable selection.

  13. QSRR modeling for the chromatographic retention behavior of some β-lactam antibiotics using forward and firefly variable selection algorithms coupled with multiple linear regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouad, Marwa A; Tolba, Enas H; El-Shal, Manal A; El Kerdawy, Ahmed M

    2018-05-11

    The justified continuous emerging of new β-lactam antibiotics provokes the need for developing suitable analytical methods that accelerate and facilitate their analysis. A face central composite experimental design was adopted using different levels of phosphate buffer pH, acetonitrile percentage at zero time and after 15 min in a gradient program to obtain the optimum chromatographic conditions for the elution of 31 β-lactam antibiotics. Retention factors were used as the target property to build two QSRR models utilizing the conventional forward selection and the advanced nature-inspired firefly algorithm for descriptor selection, coupled with multiple linear regression. The obtained models showed high performance in both internal and external validation indicating their robustness and predictive ability. Williams-Hotelling test and student's t-test showed that there is no statistical significant difference between the models' results. Y-randomization validation showed that the obtained models are due to significant correlation between the selected molecular descriptors and the analytes' chromatographic retention. These results indicate that the generated FS-MLR and FFA-MLR models are showing comparable quality on both the training and validation levels. They also gave comparable information about the molecular features that influence the retention behavior of β-lactams under the current chromatographic conditions. We can conclude that in some cases simple conventional feature selection algorithm can be used to generate robust and predictive models comparable to that are generated using advanced ones. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Genetic algorithm as a variable selection procedure for the simulation of 13C nuclear magnetic resonance spectra of flavonoid derivatives using multiple linear regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghavami, Raoof; Najafi, Amir; Sajadi, Mohammad; Djannaty, Farhad

    2008-09-01

    In order to accurately simulate (13)C NMR spectra of hydroxy, polyhydroxy and methoxy substituted flavonoid a quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model, relating atom-based calculated descriptors to (13)C NMR chemical shifts (ppm, TMS=0), is developed. A dataset consisting of 50 flavonoid derivatives was employed for the present analysis. A set of 417 topological, geometrical, and electronic descriptors representing various structural characteristics was calculated and separate multilinear QSPR models were developed between each carbon atom of flavonoid and the calculated descriptors. Genetic algorithm (GA) and multiple linear regression analysis (MLRA) were used to select the descriptors and to generate the correlation models. Analysis of the results revealed a correlation coefficient and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.994 and 2.53ppm, respectively, for the prediction set.

  15. A Demonstration of Regression False Positive Selection in Data Mining

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinder, Jonathan P.

    2014-01-01

    Business analytics courses, such as marketing research, data mining, forecasting, and advanced financial modeling, have substantial predictive modeling components. The predictive modeling in these courses requires students to estimate and test many linear regressions. As a result, false positive variable selection ("type I errors") is…

  16. Integrated Multiscale Latent Variable Regression and Application to Distillation Columns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muddu Madakyaru

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Proper control of distillation columns requires estimating some key variables that are challenging to measure online (such as compositions, which are usually estimated using inferential models. Commonly used inferential models include latent variable regression (LVR techniques, such as principal component regression (PCR, partial least squares (PLS, and regularized canonical correlation analysis (RCCA. Unfortunately, measured practical data are usually contaminated with errors, which degrade the prediction abilities of inferential models. Therefore, noisy measurements need to be filtered to enhance the prediction accuracy of these models. Multiscale filtering has been shown to be a powerful feature extraction tool. In this work, the advantages of multiscale filtering are utilized to enhance the prediction accuracy of LVR models by developing an integrated multiscale LVR (IMSLVR modeling algorithm that integrates modeling and feature extraction. The idea behind the IMSLVR modeling algorithm is to filter the process data at different decomposition levels, model the filtered data from each level, and then select the LVR model that optimizes a model selection criterion. The performance of the developed IMSLVR algorithm is illustrated using three examples, one using synthetic data, one using simulated distillation column data, and one using experimental packed bed distillation column data. All examples clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the IMSLVR algorithm over the conventional methods.

  17. Model Selection in Kernel Ridge Regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Exterkate, Peter

    Kernel ridge regression is gaining popularity as a data-rich nonlinear forecasting tool, which is applicable in many different contexts. This paper investigates the influence of the choice of kernel and the setting of tuning parameters on forecast accuracy. We review several popular kernels......, including polynomial kernels, the Gaussian kernel, and the Sinc kernel. We interpret the latter two kernels in terms of their smoothing properties, and we relate the tuning parameters associated to all these kernels to smoothness measures of the prediction function and to the signal-to-noise ratio. Based...... on these interpretations, we provide guidelines for selecting the tuning parameters from small grids using cross-validation. A Monte Carlo study confirms the practical usefulness of these rules of thumb. Finally, the flexible and smooth functional forms provided by the Gaussian and Sinc kernels makes them widely...

  18. Model building strategy for logistic regression: purposeful selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongheng

    2016-03-01

    Logistic regression is one of the most commonly used models to account for confounders in medical literature. The article introduces how to perform purposeful selection model building strategy with R. I stress on the use of likelihood ratio test to see whether deleting a variable will have significant impact on model fit. A deleted variable should also be checked for whether it is an important adjustment of remaining covariates. Interaction should be checked to disentangle complex relationship between covariates and their synergistic effect on response variable. Model should be checked for the goodness-of-fit (GOF). In other words, how the fitted model reflects the real data. Hosmer-Lemeshow GOF test is the most widely used for logistic regression model.

  19. How Robust Is Linear Regression with Dummy Variables?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankmeyer, Eric

    2006-01-01

    Researchers in education and the social sciences make extensive use of linear regression models in which the dependent variable is continuous-valued while the explanatory variables are a combination of continuous-valued regressors and dummy variables. The dummies partition the sample into groups, some of which may contain only a few observations.…

  20. Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendry, David F.; Johansen, Søren; Santos, Carlos

    2008-01-01

    We consider selecting a regression model, using a variant of Gets, when there are more variables than observations, in the special case that the variables are impulse dummies (indicators) for every observation. We show that the setting is unproblematic if tackled appropriately, and obtain the fin...... the finite-sample distribution of estimators of the mean and variance in a simple location-scale model under the null that no impulses matter. A Monte Carlo simulation confirms the null distribution, and shows power against an alternative of interest....

  1. Regression calibration with more surrogates than mismeasured variables

    KAUST Repository

    Kipnis, Victor

    2012-06-29

    In a recent paper (Weller EA, Milton DK, Eisen EA, Spiegelman D. Regression calibration for logistic regression with multiple surrogates for one exposure. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 2007; 137: 449-461), the authors discussed fitting logistic regression models when a scalar main explanatory variable is measured with error by several surrogates, that is, a situation with more surrogates than variables measured with error. They compared two methods of adjusting for measurement error using a regression calibration approximate model as if it were exact. One is the standard regression calibration approach consisting of substituting an estimated conditional expectation of the true covariate given observed data in the logistic regression. The other is a novel two-stage approach when the logistic regression is fitted to multiple surrogates, and then a linear combination of estimated slopes is formed as the estimate of interest. Applying estimated asymptotic variances for both methods in a single data set with some sensitivity analysis, the authors asserted superiority of their two-stage approach. We investigate this claim in some detail. A troubling aspect of the proposed two-stage method is that, unlike standard regression calibration and a natural form of maximum likelihood, the resulting estimates are not invariant to reparameterization of nuisance parameters in the model. We show, however, that, under the regression calibration approximation, the two-stage method is asymptotically equivalent to a maximum likelihood formulation, and is therefore in theory superior to standard regression calibration. However, our extensive finite-sample simulations in the practically important parameter space where the regression calibration model provides a good approximation failed to uncover such superiority of the two-stage method. We also discuss extensions to different data structures.

  2. Regression calibration with more surrogates than mismeasured variables

    KAUST Repository

    Kipnis, Victor; Midthune, Douglas; Freedman, Laurence S.; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2012-01-01

    In a recent paper (Weller EA, Milton DK, Eisen EA, Spiegelman D. Regression calibration for logistic regression with multiple surrogates for one exposure. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 2007; 137: 449-461), the authors discussed fitting logistic regression models when a scalar main explanatory variable is measured with error by several surrogates, that is, a situation with more surrogates than variables measured with error. They compared two methods of adjusting for measurement error using a regression calibration approximate model as if it were exact. One is the standard regression calibration approach consisting of substituting an estimated conditional expectation of the true covariate given observed data in the logistic regression. The other is a novel two-stage approach when the logistic regression is fitted to multiple surrogates, and then a linear combination of estimated slopes is formed as the estimate of interest. Applying estimated asymptotic variances for both methods in a single data set with some sensitivity analysis, the authors asserted superiority of their two-stage approach. We investigate this claim in some detail. A troubling aspect of the proposed two-stage method is that, unlike standard regression calibration and a natural form of maximum likelihood, the resulting estimates are not invariant to reparameterization of nuisance parameters in the model. We show, however, that, under the regression calibration approximation, the two-stage method is asymptotically equivalent to a maximum likelihood formulation, and is therefore in theory superior to standard regression calibration. However, our extensive finite-sample simulations in the practically important parameter space where the regression calibration model provides a good approximation failed to uncover such superiority of the two-stage method. We also discuss extensions to different data structures.

  3. Interpreting Multiple Linear Regression: A Guidebook of Variable Importance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathans, Laura L.; Oswald, Frederick L.; Nimon, Kim

    2012-01-01

    Multiple regression (MR) analyses are commonly employed in social science fields. It is also common for interpretation of results to typically reflect overreliance on beta weights, often resulting in very limited interpretations of variable importance. It appears that few researchers employ other methods to obtain a fuller understanding of what…

  4. Bayesian approach to errors-in-variables in regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozliman, Nur Aainaa; Ibrahim, Adriana Irawati Nur; Yunus, Rossita Mohammad

    2017-05-01

    In many applications and experiments, data sets are often contaminated with error or mismeasured covariates. When at least one of the covariates in a model is measured with error, Errors-in-Variables (EIV) model can be used. Measurement error, when not corrected, would cause misleading statistical inferences and analysis. Therefore, our goal is to examine the relationship of the outcome variable and the unobserved exposure variable given the observed mismeasured surrogate by applying the Bayesian formulation to the EIV model. We shall extend the flexible parametric method proposed by Hossain and Gustafson (2009) to another nonlinear regression model which is the Poisson regression model. We shall then illustrate the application of this approach via a simulation study using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods.

  5. Modeling soil organic matter (SOM) from satellite data using VISNIR-SWIR spectroscopy and PLS regression with step-down variable selection algorithm: case study of Campos Amazonicos National Park savanna enclave, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosero-Vlasova, O.; Borini Alves, D.; Vlassova, L.; Perez-Cabello, F.; Montorio Lloveria, R.

    2017-10-01

    Deforestation in Amazon basin due, among other factors, to frequent wildfires demands continuous post-fire monitoring of soil and vegetation. Thus, the study posed two objectives: (1) evaluate the capacity of Visible - Near InfraRed - ShortWave InfraRed (VIS-NIR-SWIR) spectroscopy to estimate soil organic matter (SOM) in fire-affected soils, and (2) assess the feasibility of SOM mapping from satellite images. For this purpose, 30 soil samples (surface layer) were collected in 2016 in areas of grass and riparian vegetation of Campos Amazonicos National Park, Brazil, repeatedly affected by wildfires. Standard laboratory procedures were applied to determine SOM. Reflectance spectra of soils were obtained in controlled laboratory conditions using Fieldspec4 spectroradiometer (spectral range 350nm- 2500nm). Measured spectra were resampled to simulate reflectances for Landsat-8, Sentinel-2 and EnMap spectral bands, used as predictors in SOM models developed using Partial Least Squares regression and step-down variable selection algorithm (PLSR-SD). The best fit was achieved with models based on reflectances simulated for EnMap bands (R2=0.93; R2cv=0.82 and NMSE=0.07; NMSEcv=0.19). The model uses only 8 out of 244 predictors (bands) chosen by the step-down variable selection algorithm. The least reliable estimates (R2=0.55 and R2cv=0.40 and NMSE=0.43; NMSEcv=0.60) resulted from Landsat model, while Sentinel-2 model showed R2=0.68 and R2cv=0.63; NMSE=0.31 and NMSEcv=0.38. The results confirm high potential of VIS-NIR-SWIR spectroscopy for SOM estimation. Application of step-down produces sparser and better-fit models. Finally, SOM can be estimated with an acceptable accuracy (NMSE 0.35) from EnMap and Sentinel-2 data enabling mapping and analysis of impacts of repeated wildfires on soils in the study area.

  6. Bayesian site selection for fast Gaussian process regression

    KAUST Repository

    Pourhabib, Arash; Liang, Faming; Ding, Yu

    2014-01-01

    Gaussian Process (GP) regression is a popular method in the field of machine learning and computer experiment designs; however, its ability to handle large data sets is hindered by the computational difficulty in inverting a large covariance matrix. Likelihood approximation methods were developed as a fast GP approximation, thereby reducing the computation cost of GP regression by utilizing a much smaller set of unobserved latent variables called pseudo points. This article reports a further improvement to the likelihood approximation methods by simultaneously deciding both the number and locations of the pseudo points. The proposed approach is a Bayesian site selection method where both the number and locations of the pseudo inputs are parameters in the model, and the Bayesian model is solved using a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo technique. Through a number of simulated and real data sets, it is demonstrated that with appropriate priors chosen, the Bayesian site selection method can produce a good balance between computation time and prediction accuracy: it is fast enough to handle large data sets that a full GP is unable to handle, and it improves, quite often remarkably, the prediction accuracy, compared with the existing likelihood approximations. © 2014 Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

  7. Bayesian site selection for fast Gaussian process regression

    KAUST Repository

    Pourhabib, Arash

    2014-02-05

    Gaussian Process (GP) regression is a popular method in the field of machine learning and computer experiment designs; however, its ability to handle large data sets is hindered by the computational difficulty in inverting a large covariance matrix. Likelihood approximation methods were developed as a fast GP approximation, thereby reducing the computation cost of GP regression by utilizing a much smaller set of unobserved latent variables called pseudo points. This article reports a further improvement to the likelihood approximation methods by simultaneously deciding both the number and locations of the pseudo points. The proposed approach is a Bayesian site selection method where both the number and locations of the pseudo inputs are parameters in the model, and the Bayesian model is solved using a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo technique. Through a number of simulated and real data sets, it is demonstrated that with appropriate priors chosen, the Bayesian site selection method can produce a good balance between computation time and prediction accuracy: it is fast enough to handle large data sets that a full GP is unable to handle, and it improves, quite often remarkably, the prediction accuracy, compared with the existing likelihood approximations. © 2014 Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

  8. Statistical methods and regression analysis of stratospheric ozone and meteorological variables in Isfahan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, S.; Hosseinibalam, F.; Omidvari, M.

    2008-04-01

    Data of seven meteorological variables (relative humidity, wet temperature, dry temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, ground temperature and sun radiation time) and ozone values have been used for statistical analysis. Meteorological variables and ozone values were analyzed using both multiple linear regression and principal component methods. Data for the period 1999-2004 are analyzed jointly using both methods. For all periods, temperature dependent variables were highly correlated, but were all negatively correlated with relative humidity. Multiple regression analysis was used to fit the meteorological variables using the meteorological variables as predictors. A variable selection method based on high loading of varimax rotated principal components was used to obtain subsets of the predictor variables to be included in the linear regression model of the meteorological variables. In 1999, 2001 and 2002 one of the meteorological variables was weakly influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations. However, the model did not predict that the meteorological variables for the year 2000 were not influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations that point to variation in sun radiation. This could be due to other factors that were not explicitly considered in this study.

  9. On a Robust MaxEnt Process Regression Model with Sample-Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hea-Jung Kim

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In a regression analysis, a sample-selection bias arises when a dependent variable is partially observed as a result of the sample selection. This study introduces a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt process regression model that assumes a MaxEnt prior distribution for its nonparametric regression function and finds that the MaxEnt process regression model includes the well-known Gaussian process regression (GPR model as a special case. Then, this special MaxEnt process regression model, i.e., the GPR model, is generalized to obtain a robust sample-selection Gaussian process regression (RSGPR model that deals with non-normal data in the sample selection. Various properties of the RSGPR model are established, including the stochastic representation, distributional hierarchy, and magnitude of the sample-selection bias. These properties are used in the paper to develop a hierarchical Bayesian methodology to estimate the model. This involves a simple and computationally feasible Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that avoids analytical or numerical derivatives of the log-likelihood function of the model. The performance of the RSGPR model in terms of the sample-selection bias correction, robustness to non-normality, and prediction, is demonstrated through results in simulations that attest to its good finite-sample performance.

  10. SOCP relaxation bounds for the optimal subset selection problem applied to robust linear regression

    OpenAIRE

    Flores, Salvador

    2015-01-01

    This paper deals with the problem of finding the globally optimal subset of h elements from a larger set of n elements in d space dimensions so as to minimize a quadratic criterion, with an special emphasis on applications to computing the Least Trimmed Squares Estimator (LTSE) for robust regression. The computation of the LTSE is a challenging subset selection problem involving a nonlinear program with continuous and binary variables, linked in a highly nonlinear fashion. The selection of a ...

  11. Order Selection for General Expression of Nonlinear Autoregressive Model Based on Multivariate Stepwise Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Jinfei; Zhu, Songqing; Chen, Ruwen

    2017-12-01

    An order selection method based on multiple stepwise regressions is proposed for General Expression of Nonlinear Autoregressive model which converts the model order problem into the variable selection of multiple linear regression equation. The partial autocorrelation function is adopted to define the linear term in GNAR model. The result is set as the initial model, and then the nonlinear terms are introduced gradually. Statistics are chosen to study the improvements of both the new introduced and originally existed variables for the model characteristics, which are adopted to determine the model variables to retain or eliminate. So the optimal model is obtained through data fitting effect measurement or significance test. The simulation and classic time-series data experiment results show that the method proposed is simple, reliable and can be applied to practical engineering.

  12. A PANEL REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF HUMAN CAPITAL RELEVANCE IN SELECTED SCANDINAVIAN AND SE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filip Kokotovic

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The study of human capital relevance to economic growth is becoming increasingly important taking into account its relevance in many of the Sustainable Development Goals proposed by the UN. This paper conducted a panel regression analysis of selected SE European countries and Scandinavian countries using the Granger causality test and pooled panel regression. In order to test the relevance of human capital on economic growth, several human capital proxy variables were identified. Aside from the human capital proxy variables, other explanatory variables were selected using stepwise regression while the dependant variable was GDP. This paper concludes that there are significant structural differences in the economies of the two observed panels. Of the human capital proxy variables observed, for the panel of SE European countries only life expectancy was statistically significant and it had a negative impact on economic growth, while in the panel of Scandinavian countries total public expenditure on education had a statistically significant positive effect on economic growth. Based upon these results and existing studies, this paper concludes that human capital has a far more significant impact on economic growth in more developed economies.

  13. Régression orthogonale de trois variables liées Orthogonal Regression of Linked Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phelizon J. -F.

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available On propose dans cet article un algorithme permettant de déterminer les paramètres de l'équation de régression orthogonale de trois variables liées par une relation linéaire. Cet algorithme est remarquablement simple puisqu'il n'implique pas de devoir calculer les valeurs propres de la matrice des covariances. D'autre part, on montre que l'équation obtenue (celle d'une droite dans l'espace à trois dimensions caractérise aussi une droite dans un diagramme triangulaire, ce qui rend l'interprétation des résultats immédiate. L'exposé théorique se poursuit par deux exemples qui ont été effectivement testés sur ordinateur. This article proposes on algorithm for determining the parameters of the equation for the orthogonal regression of three variables linked by a linear relation. This algorithm is remarkably simple in that il does not require the actual values of the covariance matrix to be calculated. In addition, the equation obtained (for a straight line in three-dimensional space is shown to characterize a straight line in a triang ular diagram as well, thus making il immediately possible ta interpret the resulis. The theoretical explanation continues with two examples that were actually tried out on a computer.

  14. The number of subjects per variable required in linear regression analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.C. Austin (Peter); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractObjectives To determine the number of independent variables that can be included in a linear regression model. Study Design and Setting We used a series of Monte Carlo simulations to examine the impact of the number of subjects per variable (SPV) on the accuracy of estimated regression

  15. Bayesian Group Bridge for Bi-level Variable Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallick, Himel; Yi, Nengjun

    2017-06-01

    A Bayesian bi-level variable selection method (BAGB: Bayesian Analysis of Group Bridge) is developed for regularized regression and classification. This new development is motivated by grouped data, where generic variables can be divided into multiple groups, with variables in the same group being mechanistically related or statistically correlated. As an alternative to frequentist group variable selection methods, BAGB incorporates structural information among predictors through a group-wise shrinkage prior. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient MCMC algorithm. In addition to the usual ease-of-interpretation of hierarchical linear models, the Bayesian formulation produces valid standard errors, a feature that is notably absent in the frequentist framework. Empirical evidence of the attractiveness of the method is illustrated by extensive Monte Carlo simulations and real data analysis. Finally, several extensions of this new approach are presented, providing a unified framework for bi-level variable selection in general models with flexible penalties.

  16. Variable selection by lasso-type methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sohail Chand

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Variable selection is an important property of shrinkage methods. The adaptive lasso is an oracle procedure and can do consistent variable selection. In this paper, we provide an explanation that how use of adaptive weights make it possible for the adaptive lasso to satisfy the necessary and almost sufcient condition for consistent variable selection. We suggest a novel algorithm and give an important result that for the adaptive lasso if predictors are normalised after the introduction of adaptive weights, it makes the adaptive lasso performance identical to the lasso.

  17. SELECTING QUASARS BY THEIR INTRINSIC VARIABILITY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, Kasper B.; Rix, Hans-Walter; Jester, Sebastian; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Marshall, Philip J.; Dobler, Gregory

    2010-01-01

    We present a new and simple technique for selecting extensive, complete, and pure quasar samples, based on their intrinsic variability. We parameterize the single-band variability by a power-law model for the light-curve structure function, with amplitude A and power-law index γ. We show that quasars can be efficiently separated from other non-variable and variable sources by the location of the individual sources in the A-γ plane. We use ∼60 epochs of imaging data, taken over ∼5 years, from the SDSS stripe 82 (S82) survey, where extensive spectroscopy provides a reference sample of quasars, to demonstrate the power of variability as a quasar classifier in multi-epoch surveys. For UV-excess selected objects, variability performs just as well as the standard SDSS color selection, identifying quasars with a completeness of 90% and a purity of 95%. In the redshift range 2.5 < z < 3, where color selection is known to be problematic, variability can select quasars with a completeness of 90% and a purity of 96%. This is a factor of 5-10 times more pure than existing color selection of quasars in this redshift range. Selecting objects from a broad griz color box without u-band information, variability selection in S82 can afford completeness and purity of 92%, despite a factor of 30 more contaminants than quasars in the color-selected feeder sample. This confirms that the fraction of quasars hidden in the 'stellar locus' of color space is small. To test variability selection in the context of Pan-STARRS 1 (PS1) we created mock PS1 data by down-sampling the S82 data to just six epochs over 3 years. Even with this much sparser time sampling, variability is an encouragingly efficient classifier. For instance, a 92% pure and 44% complete quasar candidate sample is attainable from the above griz-selected catalog. Finally, we show that the presented A-γ technique, besides selecting clean and pure samples of quasars (which are stochastically varying objects), is also

  18. Independent variable complexity for regional regression of the flow duration curve in ungauged basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouad, Geoffrey; Skupin, André; Hope, Allen

    2016-04-01

    The flow duration curve (FDC) is one of the most widely used tools to quantify streamflow. Its percentile flows are often required for water resource applications, but these values must be predicted for ungauged basins with insufficient or no streamflow data. Regional regression is a commonly used approach for predicting percentile flows that involves identifying hydrologic regions and calibrating regression models to each region. The independent variables used to describe the physiographic and climatic setting of the basins are a critical component of regional regression, yet few studies have investigated their effect on resulting predictions. In this study, the complexity of the independent variables needed for regional regression is investigated. Different levels of variable complexity are applied for a regional regression consisting of 918 basins in the US. Both the hydrologic regions and regression models are determined according to the different sets of variables, and the accuracy of resulting predictions is assessed. The different sets of variables include (1) a simple set of three variables strongly tied to the FDC (mean annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and baseflow index), (2) a traditional set of variables describing the average physiographic and climatic conditions of the basins, and (3) a more complex set of variables extending the traditional variables to include statistics describing the distribution of physiographic data and temporal components of climatic data. The latter set of variables is not typically used in regional regression, and is evaluated for its potential to predict percentile flows. The simplest set of only three variables performed similarly to the other more complex sets of variables. Traditional variables used to describe climate, topography, and soil offered little more to the predictions, and the experimental set of variables describing the distribution of basin data in more detail did not improve predictions

  19. Cross-validation pitfalls when selecting and assessing regression and classification models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krstajic, Damjan; Buturovic, Ljubomir J; Leahy, David E; Thomas, Simon

    2014-03-29

    We address the problem of selecting and assessing classification and regression models using cross-validation. Current state-of-the-art methods can yield models with high variance, rendering them unsuitable for a number of practical applications including QSAR. In this paper we describe and evaluate best practices which improve reliability and increase confidence in selected models. A key operational component of the proposed methods is cloud computing which enables routine use of previously infeasible approaches. We describe in detail an algorithm for repeated grid-search V-fold cross-validation for parameter tuning in classification and regression, and we define a repeated nested cross-validation algorithm for model assessment. As regards variable selection and parameter tuning we define two algorithms (repeated grid-search cross-validation and double cross-validation), and provide arguments for using the repeated grid-search in the general case. We show results of our algorithms on seven QSAR datasets. The variation of the prediction performance, which is the result of choosing different splits of the dataset in V-fold cross-validation, needs to be taken into account when selecting and assessing classification and regression models. We demonstrate the importance of repeating cross-validation when selecting an optimal model, as well as the importance of repeating nested cross-validation when assessing a prediction error.

  20. A Monte Carlo simulation study comparing linear regression, beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression and fractional logit regression at recovering average difference measures in a two sample design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meaney, Christopher; Moineddin, Rahim

    2014-01-24

    In biomedical research, response variables are often encountered which have bounded support on the open unit interval--(0,1). Traditionally, researchers have attempted to estimate covariate effects on these types of response data using linear regression. Alternative modelling strategies may include: beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression, and fractional logit regression models. This study employs a Monte Carlo simulation design to compare the statistical properties of the linear regression model to that of the more novel beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression, and fractional logit regression models. In the Monte Carlo experiment we assume a simple two sample design. We assume observations are realizations of independent draws from their respective probability models. The randomly simulated draws from the various probability models are chosen to emulate average proportion/percentage/rate differences of pre-specified magnitudes. Following simulation of the experimental data we estimate average proportion/percentage/rate differences. We compare the estimators in terms of bias, variance, type-1 error and power. Estimates of Monte Carlo error associated with these quantities are provided. If response data are beta distributed with constant dispersion parameters across the two samples, then all models are unbiased and have reasonable type-1 error rates and power profiles. If the response data in the two samples have different dispersion parameters, then the simple beta regression model is biased. When the sample size is small (N0 = N1 = 25) linear regression has superior type-1 error rates compared to the other models. Small sample type-1 error rates can be improved in beta regression models using bias correction/reduction methods. In the power experiments, variable-dispersion beta regression and fractional logit regression models have slightly elevated power compared to linear regression models. Similar results were observed if the

  1. Avoiding and Correcting Bias in Score-Based Latent Variable Regression with Discrete Manifest Items

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Irene R. R.; Thomas, D. Roland

    2008-01-01

    This article considers models involving a single structural equation with latent explanatory and/or latent dependent variables where discrete items are used to measure the latent variables. Our primary focus is the use of scores as proxies for the latent variables and carrying out ordinary least squares (OLS) regression on such scores to estimate…

  2. Variable selection and estimation for longitudinal survey data

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Li

    2014-09-01

    There is wide interest in studying longitudinal surveys where sample subjects are observed successively over time. Longitudinal surveys have been used in many areas today, for example, in the health and social sciences, to explore relationships or to identify significant variables in regression settings. This paper develops a general strategy for the model selection problem in longitudinal sample surveys. A survey weighted penalized estimating equation approach is proposed to select significant variables and estimate the coefficients simultaneously. The proposed estimators are design consistent and perform as well as the oracle procedure when the correct submodel was known. The estimating function bootstrap is applied to obtain the standard errors of the estimated parameters with good accuracy. A fast and efficient variable selection algorithm is developed to identify significant variables for complex longitudinal survey data. Simulated examples are illustrated to show the usefulness of the proposed methodology under various model settings and sampling designs. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

  3. Variable selection in multivariate calibration based on clustering of variable concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrokhnia, Maryam; Karimi, Sadegh

    2016-01-01

    Recently we have proposed a new variable selection algorithm, based on clustering of variable concept (CLoVA) in classification problem. With the same idea, this new concept has been applied to a regression problem and then the obtained results have been compared with conventional variable selection strategies for PLS. The basic idea behind the clustering of variable is that, the instrument channels are clustered into different clusters via clustering algorithms. Then, the spectral data of each cluster are subjected to PLS regression. Different real data sets (Cargill corn, Biscuit dough, ACE QSAR, Soy, and Tablet) have been used to evaluate the influence of the clustering of variables on the prediction performances of PLS. Almost in the all cases, the statistical parameter especially in prediction error shows the superiority of CLoVA-PLS respect to other variable selection strategies. Finally the synergy clustering of variable (sCLoVA-PLS), which is used the combination of cluster, has been proposed as an efficient and modification of CLoVA algorithm. The obtained statistical parameter indicates that variable clustering can split useful part from redundant ones, and then based on informative cluster; stable model can be reached. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Ensembling Variable Selectors by Stability Selection for the Cox Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing-Yan Yin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available As a pivotal tool to build interpretive models, variable selection plays an increasingly important role in high-dimensional data analysis. In recent years, variable selection ensembles (VSEs have gained much interest due to their many advantages. Stability selection (Meinshausen and Bühlmann, 2010, a VSE technique based on subsampling in combination with a base algorithm like lasso, is an effective method to control false discovery rate (FDR and to improve selection accuracy in linear regression models. By adopting lasso as a base learner, we attempt to extend stability selection to handle variable selection problems in a Cox model. According to our experience, it is crucial to set the regularization region Λ in lasso and the parameter λmin properly so that stability selection can work well. To the best of our knowledge, however, there is no literature addressing this problem in an explicit way. Therefore, we first provide a detailed procedure to specify Λ and λmin. Then, some simulated and real-world data with various censoring rates are used to examine how well stability selection performs. It is also compared with several other variable selection approaches. Experimental results demonstrate that it achieves better or competitive performance in comparison with several other popular techniques.

  5. Machine learning techniques to select variable stars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    García-Varela Alejandro

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to perform a supervised classification of variable stars, we propose and evaluate a set of six features extracted from the magnitude density of the light curves. They are used to train automatic classification systems using state-of-the-art classifiers implemented in the R statistical computing environment. We find that random forests is the most successful method to select variables.

  6. Robust cluster analysis and variable selection

    CERN Document Server

    Ritter, Gunter

    2014-01-01

    Clustering remains a vibrant area of research in statistics. Although there are many books on this topic, there are relatively few that are well founded in the theoretical aspects. In Robust Cluster Analysis and Variable Selection, Gunter Ritter presents an overview of the theory and applications of probabilistic clustering and variable selection, synthesizing the key research results of the last 50 years. The author focuses on the robust clustering methods he found to be the most useful on simulated data and real-time applications. The book provides clear guidance for the varying needs of bot

  7. Mahalanobis distance and variable selection to optimize dose response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, D.H. II; Bennett, D.E.; Wyrobek, A.J.; Kranzler, D.

    1979-01-01

    A battery of statistical techniques are combined to improve detection of low-level dose response. First, Mahalanobis distances are used to classify objects as normal or abnormal. Then the proportion classified abnormal is regressed on dose. Finally, a subset of regressor variables is selected which maximizes the slope of the dose response line. Use of the techniques is illustrated by application to mouse sperm damaged by low doses of x-rays

  8. Selective principal component regression analysis of fluorescence hyperspectral image to assess aflatoxin contamination in corn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selective principal component regression analysis (SPCR) uses a subset of the original image bands for principal component transformation and regression. For optimal band selection before the transformation, this paper used genetic algorithms (GA). In this case, the GA process used the regression co...

  9. PATH ANALYSIS WITH LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS : EFFECT ANALYSIS OF FULLY RECURSIVE CAUSAL SYSTEMS OF CATEGORICAL VARIABLES

    OpenAIRE

    Nobuoki, Eshima; Minoru, Tabata; Geng, Zhi; Department of Medical Information Analysis, Faculty of Medicine, Oita Medical University; Department of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Engineering, Kobe University; Department of Probability and Statistics, Peking University

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses path analysis of categorical variables with logistic regression models. The total, direct and indirect effects in fully recursive causal systems are considered by using model parameters. These effects can be explained in terms of log odds ratios, uncertainty differences, and an inner product of explanatory variables and a response variable. A study on food choice of alligators as a numerical exampleis reanalysed to illustrate the present approach.

  10. Variable selection in near-infrared spectroscopy: Benchmarking of feature selection methods on biodiesel data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balabin, Roman M.; Smirnov, Sergey V.

    2011-01-01

    During the past several years, near-infrared (near-IR/NIR) spectroscopy has increasingly been adopted as an analytical tool in various fields from petroleum to biomedical sectors. The NIR spectrum (above 4000 cm -1 ) of a sample is typically measured by modern instruments at a few hundred of wavelengths. Recently, considerable effort has been directed towards developing procedures to identify variables (wavelengths) that contribute useful information. Variable selection (VS) or feature selection, also called frequency selection or wavelength selection, is a critical step in data analysis for vibrational spectroscopy (infrared, Raman, or NIRS). In this paper, we compare the performance of 16 different feature selection methods for the prediction of properties of biodiesel fuel, including density, viscosity, methanol content, and water concentration. The feature selection algorithms tested include stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR-step), interval partial least squares regression (iPLS), backward iPLS (BiPLS), forward iPLS (FiPLS), moving window partial least squares regression (MWPLS), (modified) changeable size moving window partial least squares (CSMWPLS/MCSMWPLSR), searching combination moving window partial least squares (SCMWPLS), successive projections algorithm (SPA), uninformative variable elimination (UVE, including UVE-SPA), simulated annealing (SA), back-propagation artificial neural networks (BP-ANN), Kohonen artificial neural network (K-ANN), and genetic algorithms (GAs, including GA-iPLS). Two linear techniques for calibration model building, namely multiple linear regression (MLR) and partial least squares regression/projection to latent structures (PLS/PLSR), are used for the evaluation of biofuel properties. A comparison with a non-linear calibration model, artificial neural networks (ANN-MLP), is also provided. Discussion of gasoline, ethanol-gasoline (bioethanol), and diesel fuel data is presented. The results of other spectroscopic

  11. Prediction-Oriented Marker Selection (PROMISE): With Application to High-Dimensional Regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Soyeon; Baladandayuthapani, Veerabhadran; Lee, J Jack

    2017-06-01

    In personalized medicine, biomarkers are used to select therapies with the highest likelihood of success based on an individual patient's biomarker/genomic profile. Two goals are to choose important biomarkers that accurately predict treatment outcomes and to cull unimportant biomarkers to reduce the cost of biological and clinical verifications. These goals are challenging due to the high dimensionality of genomic data. Variable selection methods based on penalized regression (e.g., the lasso and elastic net) have yielded promising results. However, selecting the right amount of penalization is critical to simultaneously achieving these two goals. Standard approaches based on cross-validation (CV) typically provide high prediction accuracy with high true positive rates but at the cost of too many false positives. Alternatively, stability selection (SS) controls the number of false positives, but at the cost of yielding too few true positives. To circumvent these issues, we propose prediction-oriented marker selection (PROMISE), which combines SS with CV to conflate the advantages of both methods. Our application of PROMISE with the lasso and elastic net in data analysis shows that, compared to CV, PROMISE produces sparse solutions, few false positives, and small type I + type II error, and maintains good prediction accuracy, with a marginal decrease in the true positive rates. Compared to SS, PROMISE offers better prediction accuracy and true positive rates. In summary, PROMISE can be applied in many fields to select regularization parameters when the goals are to minimize false positives and maximize prediction accuracy.

  12. The number of subjects per variable required in linear regression analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Steyerberg, Ewout W

    2015-06-01

    To determine the number of independent variables that can be included in a linear regression model. We used a series of Monte Carlo simulations to examine the impact of the number of subjects per variable (SPV) on the accuracy of estimated regression coefficients and standard errors, on the empirical coverage of estimated confidence intervals, and on the accuracy of the estimated R(2) of the fitted model. A minimum of approximately two SPV tended to result in estimation of regression coefficients with relative bias of less than 10%. Furthermore, with this minimum number of SPV, the standard errors of the regression coefficients were accurately estimated and estimated confidence intervals had approximately the advertised coverage rates. A much higher number of SPV were necessary to minimize bias in estimating the model R(2), although adjusted R(2) estimates behaved well. The bias in estimating the model R(2) statistic was inversely proportional to the magnitude of the proportion of variation explained by the population regression model. Linear regression models require only two SPV for adequate estimation of regression coefficients, standard errors, and confidence intervals. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. A Spline-Based Lack-Of-Fit Test for Independent Variable Effect in Poisson Regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chin-Shang; Tu, Wanzhu

    2007-05-01

    In regression analysis of count data, independent variables are often modeled by their linear effects under the assumption of log-linearity. In reality, the validity of such an assumption is rarely tested, and its use is at times unjustifiable. A lack-of-fit test is proposed for the adequacy of a postulated functional form of an independent variable within the framework of semiparametric Poisson regression models based on penalized splines. It offers added flexibility in accommodating the potentially non-loglinear effect of the independent variable. A likelihood ratio test is constructed for the adequacy of the postulated parametric form, for example log-linearity, of the independent variable effect. Simulations indicate that the proposed model performs well, and misspecified parametric model has much reduced power. An example is given.

  14. Robust best linear estimation for regression analysis using surrogate and instrumental variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, C Y

    2012-04-01

    We investigate methods for regression analysis when covariates are measured with errors. In a subset of the whole cohort, a surrogate variable is available for the true unobserved exposure variable. The surrogate variable satisfies the classical measurement error model, but it may not have repeated measurements. In addition to the surrogate variables that are available among the subjects in the calibration sample, we assume that there is an instrumental variable (IV) that is available for all study subjects. An IV is correlated with the unobserved true exposure variable and hence can be useful in the estimation of the regression coefficients. We propose a robust best linear estimator that uses all the available data, which is the most efficient among a class of consistent estimators. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal under very weak distributional assumptions. For Poisson or linear regression, the proposed estimator is consistent even if the measurement error from the surrogate or IV is heteroscedastic. Finite-sample performance of the proposed estimator is examined and compared with other estimators via intensive simulation studies. The proposed method and other methods are applied to a bladder cancer case-control study.

  15. Solving the Omitted Variables Problem of Regression Analysis Using the Relative Vertical Position of Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan E. Leightner

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The omitted variables problem is one of regression analysis’ most serious problems. The standard approach to the omitted variables problem is to find instruments, or proxies, for the omitted variables, but this approach makes strong assumptions that are rarely met in practice. This paper introduces best projection reiterative truncated projected least squares (BP-RTPLS, the third generation of a technique that solves the omitted variables problem without using proxies or instruments. This paper presents a theoretical argument that BP-RTPLS produces unbiased reduced form estimates when there are omitted variables. This paper also provides simulation evidence that shows OLS produces between 250% and 2450% more errors than BP-RTPLS when there are omitted variables and when measurement and round-off error is 1 percent or less. In an example, the government spending multiplier, , is estimated using annual data for the USA between 1929 and 2010.

  16. Parameter Selection Method for Support Vector Regression Based on Adaptive Fusion of the Mixed Kernel Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hailun Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Support vector regression algorithm is widely used in fault diagnosis of rolling bearing. A new model parameter selection method for support vector regression based on adaptive fusion of the mixed kernel function is proposed in this paper. We choose the mixed kernel function as the kernel function of support vector regression. The mixed kernel function of the fusion coefficients, kernel function parameters, and regression parameters are combined together as the parameters of the state vector. Thus, the model selection problem is transformed into a nonlinear system state estimation problem. We use a 5th-degree cubature Kalman filter to estimate the parameters. In this way, we realize the adaptive selection of mixed kernel function weighted coefficients and the kernel parameters, the regression parameters. Compared with a single kernel function, unscented Kalman filter (UKF support vector regression algorithms, and genetic algorithms, the decision regression function obtained by the proposed method has better generalization ability and higher prediction accuracy.

  17. [Correlation coefficient-based classification method of hydrological dependence variability: With auto-regression model as example].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yu Xi; Xie, Ping; Sang, Yan Fang; Wu, Zi Yi

    2018-04-01

    Hydrological process evaluation is temporal dependent. Hydrological time series including dependence components do not meet the data consistency assumption for hydrological computation. Both of those factors cause great difficulty for water researches. Given the existence of hydrological dependence variability, we proposed a correlationcoefficient-based method for significance evaluation of hydrological dependence based on auto-regression model. By calculating the correlation coefficient between the original series and its dependence component and selecting reasonable thresholds of correlation coefficient, this method divided significance degree of dependence into no variability, weak variability, mid variability, strong variability, and drastic variability. By deducing the relationship between correlation coefficient and auto-correlation coefficient in each order of series, we found that the correlation coefficient was mainly determined by the magnitude of auto-correlation coefficient from the 1 order to p order, which clarified the theoretical basis of this method. With the first-order and second-order auto-regression models as examples, the reasonability of the deduced formula was verified through Monte-Carlo experiments to classify the relationship between correlation coefficient and auto-correlation coefficient. This method was used to analyze three observed hydrological time series. The results indicated the coexistence of stochastic and dependence characteristics in hydrological process.

  18. A novel relational regularization feature selection method for joint regression and classification in AD diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiaofeng; Suk, Heung-Il; Wang, Li; Lee, Seong-Whan; Shen, Dinggang

    2017-05-01

    In this paper, we focus on joint regression and classification for Alzheimer's disease diagnosis and propose a new feature selection method by embedding the relational information inherent in the observations into a sparse multi-task learning framework. Specifically, the relational information includes three kinds of relationships (such as feature-feature relation, response-response relation, and sample-sample relation), for preserving three kinds of the similarity, such as for the features, the response variables, and the samples, respectively. To conduct feature selection, we first formulate the objective function by imposing these three relational characteristics along with an ℓ 2,1 -norm regularization term, and further propose a computationally efficient algorithm to optimize the proposed objective function. With the dimension-reduced data, we train two support vector regression models to predict the clinical scores of ADAS-Cog and MMSE, respectively, and also a support vector classification model to determine the clinical label. We conducted extensive experiments on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Our experimental results showed the efficacy of the proposed method in enhancing the performances of both clinical scores prediction and disease status identification, compared to the state-of-the-art methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. The use of vector bootstrapping to improve variable selection precision in Lasso models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laurin, C.; Boomsma, D.I.; Lubke, G.H.

    2016-01-01

    The Lasso is a shrinkage regression method that is widely used for variable selection in statistical genetics. Commonly, K-fold cross-validation is used to fit a Lasso model. This is sometimes followed by using bootstrap confidence intervals to improve precision in the resulting variable selections.

  20. Model selection with multiple regression on distance matrices leads to incorrect inferences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan P Franckowiak

    Full Text Available In landscape genetics, model selection procedures based on Information Theoretic and Bayesian principles have been used with multiple regression on distance matrices (MRM to test the relationship between multiple vectors of pairwise genetic, geographic, and environmental distance. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we examined the ability of model selection criteria based on Akaike's information criterion (AIC, its small-sample correction (AICc, and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC to reliably rank candidate models when applied with MRM while varying the sample size. The results showed a serious problem: all three criteria exhibit a systematic bias toward selecting unnecessarily complex models containing spurious random variables and erroneously suggest a high level of support for the incorrectly ranked best model. These problems effectively increased with increasing sample size. The failure of AIC, AICc, and BIC was likely driven by the inflated sample size and different sum-of-squares partitioned by MRM, and the resulting effect on delta values. Based on these findings, we strongly discourage the continued application of AIC, AICc, and BIC for model selection with MRM.

  1. The use of cognitive ability measures as explanatory variables in regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junker, Brian; Schofield, Lynne Steuerle; Taylor, Lowell J

    2012-12-01

    Cognitive ability measures are often taken as explanatory variables in regression analysis, e.g., as a factor affecting a market outcome such as an individual's wage, or a decision such as an individual's education acquisition. Cognitive ability is a latent construct; its true value is unobserved. Nonetheless, researchers often assume that a test score , constructed via standard psychometric practice from individuals' responses to test items, can be safely used in regression analysis. We examine problems that can arise, and suggest that an alternative approach, a "mixed effects structural equations" (MESE) model, may be more appropriate in many circumstances.

  2. Estimating nonlinear selection gradients using quadratic regression coefficients: double or nothing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stinchcombe, John R; Agrawal, Aneil F; Hohenlohe, Paul A; Arnold, Stevan J; Blows, Mark W

    2008-09-01

    The use of regression analysis has been instrumental in allowing evolutionary biologists to estimate the strength and mode of natural selection. Although directional and correlational selection gradients are equal to their corresponding regression coefficients, quadratic regression coefficients must be doubled to estimate stabilizing/disruptive selection gradients. Based on a sample of 33 papers published in Evolution between 2002 and 2007, at least 78% of papers have not doubled quadratic regression coefficients, leading to an appreciable underestimate of the strength of stabilizing and disruptive selection. Proper treatment of quadratic regression coefficients is necessary for estimation of fitness surfaces and contour plots, canonical analysis of the gamma matrix, and modeling the evolution of populations on an adaptive landscape.

  3. Polychotomization of continuous variables in regression models based on the overall C index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bax Leon

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background When developing multivariable regression models for diagnosis or prognosis, continuous independent variables can be categorized to make a prediction table instead of a prediction formula. Although many methods have been proposed to dichotomize prognostic variables, to date there has been no integrated method for polychotomization. The latter is necessary when dichotomization results in too much loss of information or when central values refer to normal states and more dispersed values refer to less preferable states, a situation that is not unusual in medical settings (e.g. body temperature, blood pressure. The goal of our study was to develop a theoretical and practical method for polychotomization. Methods We used the overall discrimination index C, introduced by Harrel, as a measure of the predictive ability of an independent regressor variable and derived a method for polychotomization mathematically. Since the naïve application of our method, like some existing methods, gives rise to positive bias, we developed a parametric method that minimizes this bias and assessed its performance by the use of Monte Carlo simulation. Results The overall C is closely related to the area under the ROC curve and the produced di(polychotomized variable's predictive performance is comparable to the original continuous variable. The simulation shows that the parametric method is essentially unbiased for both the estimates of performance and the cutoff points. Application of our method to the predictor variables of a previous study on rhabdomyolysis shows that it can be used to make probability profile tables that are applicable to the diagnosis or prognosis of individual patient status. Conclusion We propose a polychotomization (including dichotomization method for independent continuous variables in regression models based on the overall discrimination index C and clarified its meaning mathematically. To avoid positive bias in

  4. No rationale for 1 variable per 10 events criterion for binary logistic regression analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maarten van Smeden

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Ten events per variable (EPV is a widely advocated minimal criterion for sample size considerations in logistic regression analysis. Of three previous simulation studies that examined this minimal EPV criterion only one supports the use of a minimum of 10 EPV. In this paper, we examine the reasons for substantial differences between these extensive simulation studies. Methods The current study uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate small sample bias, coverage of confidence intervals and mean square error of logit coefficients. Logistic regression models fitted by maximum likelihood and a modified estimation procedure, known as Firth’s correction, are compared. Results The results show that besides EPV, the problems associated with low EPV depend on other factors such as the total sample size. It is also demonstrated that simulation results can be dominated by even a few simulated data sets for which the prediction of the outcome by the covariates is perfect (‘separation’. We reveal that different approaches for identifying and handling separation leads to substantially different simulation results. We further show that Firth’s correction can be used to improve the accuracy of regression coefficients and alleviate the problems associated with separation. Conclusions The current evidence supporting EPV rules for binary logistic regression is weak. Given our findings, there is an urgent need for new research to provide guidance for supporting sample size considerations for binary logistic regression analysis.

  5. No rationale for 1 variable per 10 events criterion for binary logistic regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Smeden, Maarten; de Groot, Joris A H; Moons, Karel G M; Collins, Gary S; Altman, Douglas G; Eijkemans, Marinus J C; Reitsma, Johannes B

    2016-11-24

    Ten events per variable (EPV) is a widely advocated minimal criterion for sample size considerations in logistic regression analysis. Of three previous simulation studies that examined this minimal EPV criterion only one supports the use of a minimum of 10 EPV. In this paper, we examine the reasons for substantial differences between these extensive simulation studies. The current study uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate small sample bias, coverage of confidence intervals and mean square error of logit coefficients. Logistic regression models fitted by maximum likelihood and a modified estimation procedure, known as Firth's correction, are compared. The results show that besides EPV, the problems associated with low EPV depend on other factors such as the total sample size. It is also demonstrated that simulation results can be dominated by even a few simulated data sets for which the prediction of the outcome by the covariates is perfect ('separation'). We reveal that different approaches for identifying and handling separation leads to substantially different simulation results. We further show that Firth's correction can be used to improve the accuracy of regression coefficients and alleviate the problems associated with separation. The current evidence supporting EPV rules for binary logistic regression is weak. Given our findings, there is an urgent need for new research to provide guidance for supporting sample size considerations for binary logistic regression analysis.

  6. Statistical approach for selection of regression model during validation of bioanalytical method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalija Nakov

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The selection of an adequate regression model is the basis for obtaining accurate and reproducible results during the bionalytical method validation. Given the wide concentration range, frequently present in bioanalytical assays, heteroscedasticity of the data may be expected. Several weighted linear and quadratic regression models were evaluated during the selection of the adequate curve fit using nonparametric statistical tests: One sample rank test and Wilcoxon signed rank test for two independent groups of samples. The results obtained with One sample rank test could not give statistical justification for the selection of linear vs. quadratic regression models because slight differences between the error (presented through the relative residuals were obtained. Estimation of the significance of the differences in the RR was achieved using Wilcoxon signed rank test, where linear and quadratic regression models were treated as two independent groups. The application of this simple non-parametric statistical test provides statistical confirmation of the choice of an adequate regression model.

  7. Standardizing effect size from linear regression models with log-transformed variables for meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Barranco, Miguel; Tobías, Aurelio; Redondo, Daniel; Molina-Portillo, Elena; Sánchez, María José

    2017-03-17

    Meta-analysis is very useful to summarize the effect of a treatment or a risk factor for a given disease. Often studies report results based on log-transformed variables in order to achieve the principal assumptions of a linear regression model. If this is the case for some, but not all studies, the effects need to be homogenized. We derived a set of formulae to transform absolute changes into relative ones, and vice versa, to allow including all results in a meta-analysis. We applied our procedure to all possible combinations of log-transformed independent or dependent variables. We also evaluated it in a simulation based on two variables either normally or asymmetrically distributed. In all the scenarios, and based on different change criteria, the effect size estimated by the derived set of formulae was equivalent to the real effect size. To avoid biased estimates of the effect, this procedure should be used with caution in the case of independent variables with asymmetric distributions that significantly differ from the normal distribution. We illustrate an application of this procedure by an application to a meta-analysis on the potential effects on neurodevelopment in children exposed to arsenic and manganese. The procedure proposed has been shown to be valid and capable of expressing the effect size of a linear regression model based on different change criteria in the variables. Homogenizing the results from different studies beforehand allows them to be combined in a meta-analysis, independently of whether the transformations had been performed on the dependent and/or independent variables.

  8. Introduction to statistical modelling 2: categorical variables and interactions in linear regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunt, Mark

    2015-07-01

    In the first article in this series we explored the use of linear regression to predict an outcome variable from a number of predictive factors. It assumed that the predictive factors were measured on an interval scale. However, this article shows how categorical variables can also be included in a linear regression model, enabling predictions to be made separately for different groups and allowing for testing the hypothesis that the outcome differs between groups. The use of interaction terms to measure whether the effect of a particular predictor variable differs between groups is also explained. An alternative approach to testing the difference between groups of the effect of a given predictor, which consists of measuring the effect in each group separately and seeing whether the statistical significance differs between the groups, is shown to be misleading. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Uncovering state-dependent relationships in shallow lakes using Bayesian latent variable regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitense, Kelsey; Hanson, Mark A; Herwig, Brian R; Zimmer, Kyle D; Fieberg, John

    2018-03-01

    Ecosystems sometimes undergo dramatic shifts between contrasting regimes. Shallow lakes, for instance, can transition between two alternative stable states: a clear state dominated by submerged aquatic vegetation and a turbid state dominated by phytoplankton. Theoretical models suggest that critical nutrient thresholds differentiate three lake types: highly resilient clear lakes, lakes that may switch between clear and turbid states following perturbations, and highly resilient turbid lakes. For effective and efficient management of shallow lakes and other systems, managers need tools to identify critical thresholds and state-dependent relationships between driving variables and key system features. Using shallow lakes as a model system for which alternative stable states have been demonstrated, we developed an integrated framework using Bayesian latent variable regression (BLR) to classify lake states, identify critical total phosphorus (TP) thresholds, and estimate steady state relationships between TP and chlorophyll a (chl a) using cross-sectional data. We evaluated the method using data simulated from a stochastic differential equation model and compared its performance to k-means clustering with regression (KMR). We also applied the framework to data comprising 130 shallow lakes. For simulated data sets, BLR had high state classification rates (median/mean accuracy >97%) and accurately estimated TP thresholds and state-dependent TP-chl a relationships. Classification and estimation improved with increasing sample size and decreasing noise levels. Compared to KMR, BLR had higher classification rates and better approximated the TP-chl a steady state relationships and TP thresholds. We fit the BLR model to three different years of empirical shallow lake data, and managers can use the estimated bifurcation diagrams to prioritize lakes for management according to their proximity to thresholds and chance of successful rehabilitation. Our model improves upon

  10. Massively-parallel best subset selection for ordinary least-squares regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gieseke, Fabian; Polsterer, Kai Lars; Mahabal, Ashish

    2017-01-01

    Selecting an optimal subset of k out of d features for linear regression models given n training instances is often considered intractable for feature spaces with hundreds or thousands of dimensions. We propose an efficient massively-parallel implementation for selecting such optimal feature...

  11. Surface Estimation, Variable Selection, and the Nonparametric Oracle Property.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storlie, Curtis B; Bondell, Howard D; Reich, Brian J; Zhang, Hao Helen

    2011-04-01

    Variable selection for multivariate nonparametric regression is an important, yet challenging, problem due, in part, to the infinite dimensionality of the function space. An ideal selection procedure should be automatic, stable, easy to use, and have desirable asymptotic properties. In particular, we define a selection procedure to be nonparametric oracle (np-oracle) if it consistently selects the correct subset of predictors and at the same time estimates the smooth surface at the optimal nonparametric rate, as the sample size goes to infinity. In this paper, we propose a model selection procedure for nonparametric models, and explore the conditions under which the new method enjoys the aforementioned properties. Developed in the framework of smoothing spline ANOVA, our estimator is obtained via solving a regularization problem with a novel adaptive penalty on the sum of functional component norms. Theoretical properties of the new estimator are established. Additionally, numerous simulated and real examples further demonstrate that the new approach substantially outperforms other existing methods in the finite sample setting.

  12. Uninformative variable elimination assisted by Gram-Schmidt Orthogonalization/successive projection algorithm for descriptor selection in QSAR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Omidikia, Nematollah; Kompany-Zareh, Mohsen

    2013-01-01

    Employment of Uninformative Variable Elimination (UVE) as a robust variable selection method is reported in this study. Each regression coefficient represents the contribution of the corresponding variable in the established model, but in the presence of uninformative variables as well as colline......Employment of Uninformative Variable Elimination (UVE) as a robust variable selection method is reported in this study. Each regression coefficient represents the contribution of the corresponding variable in the established model, but in the presence of uninformative variables as well...... as collinearity reliability of the regression coefficient's magnitude is suspicious. Successive Projection Algorithm (SPA) and Gram-Schmidt Orthogonalization (GSO) were implemented as pre-selection technique for removing collinearity and redundancy among variables in the model. Uninformative variable elimination...

  13. A regression modeling approach for studying carbonate system variability in the northern Gulf of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Wiley; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Winsor, Peter; Statscewich, Hank; Whitledge, Terry E.

    2013-01-01

    northern Gulf of Alaska (GOA) shelf experiences carbonate system variability on seasonal and annual time scales, but little information exists to resolve higher frequency variability in this region. To resolve this variability using platforms-of-opportunity, we present multiple linear regression (MLR) models constructed from hydrographic data collected along the Northeast Pacific Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) Seward Line. The empirical algorithms predict dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) using observations of nitrate (NO3-), temperature, salinity and pressure from the surface to 500 m, with R2s > 0.97 and RMSE values of 11 µmol kg-1 for DIC and 9 µmol kg-1 for TA. We applied these relationships to high-resolution NO3- data sets collected during a novel 20 h glider flight and a GLOBEC mesoscale SeaSoar survey. Results from the glider flight demonstrated time/space along-isopycnal variability of aragonite saturations (Ωarag) associated with a dicothermal layer (a cold near-surface layer found in high latitude oceans) that rivaled changes seen vertically through the thermocline. The SeaSoar survey captured the uplift to aragonite saturation horizon (depth where Ωarag = 1) shoaled to a previously unseen depth in the northern GOA. This work is similar to recent studies aimed at predicting the carbonate system in continental margin settings, albeit demonstrates that a NO3--based approach can be applied to high-latitude data collected from platforms capable of high-frequency measurements.

  14. HYBRID DATA APPROACH FOR SELECTING EFFECTIVE TEST CASES DURING THE REGRESSION TESTING

    OpenAIRE

    Mohan, M.; Shrimali, Tarun

    2017-01-01

    In the software industry, software testing becomes more important in the entire software development life cycle. Software testing is one of the fundamental components of software quality assurances. Software Testing Life Cycle (STLC)is a process involved in testing the complete software, which includes Regression Testing, Unit Testing, Smoke Testing, Integration Testing, Interface Testing, System Testing & etc. In the STLC of Regression testing, test case selection is one of the most importan...

  15. Comparison of selected variables of gaming performance in football

    OpenAIRE

    Parachin, Jiří

    2014-01-01

    Title: Comparison of selected variables of gaming performance in football Objectives: Analysis of selected variables of gaming performance in the matches of professional Czech football teams in the Champions League and UEFA Europa League in 2013. During the observation to register set variables, then evaluate obtained results and compare them. Methods: The use of observational analysis and comparison of selected variables of gaming performance in competitive matches of professional football. ...

  16. Exploratory regression analysis: a tool for selecting models and determining predictor importance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Michael T; Oswald, Frederick L

    2011-06-01

    Linear regression analysis is one of the most important tools in a researcher's toolbox for creating and testing predictive models. Although linear regression analysis indicates how strongly a set of predictor variables, taken together, will predict a relevant criterion (i.e., the multiple R), the analysis cannot indicate which predictors are the most important. Although there is no definitive or unambiguous method for establishing predictor variable importance, there are several accepted methods. This article reviews those methods for establishing predictor importance and provides a program (in Excel) for implementing them (available for direct download at http://dl.dropbox.com/u/2480715/ERA.xlsm?dl=1) . The program investigates all 2(p) - 1 submodels and produces several indices of predictor importance. This exploratory approach to linear regression, similar to other exploratory data analysis techniques, has the potential to yield both theoretical and practical benefits.

  17. Estimating severity of sideways fall using a generic multi linear regression model based on kinematic input variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Zijden, A M; Groen, B E; Tanck, E; Nienhuis, B; Verdonschot, N; Weerdesteyn, V

    2017-03-21

    Many research groups have studied fall impact mechanics to understand how fall severity can be reduced to prevent hip fractures. Yet, direct impact force measurements with force plates are restricted to a very limited repertoire of experimental falls. The purpose of this study was to develop a generic model for estimating hip impact forces (i.e. fall severity) in in vivo sideways falls without the use of force plates. Twelve experienced judokas performed sideways Martial Arts (MA) and Block ('natural') falls on a force plate, both with and without a mat on top. Data were analyzed to determine the hip impact force and to derive 11 selected (subject-specific and kinematic) variables. Falls from kneeling height were used to perform a stepwise regression procedure to assess the effects of these input variables and build the model. The final model includes four input variables, involving one subject-specific measure and three kinematic variables: maximum upper body deceleration, body mass, shoulder angle at the instant of 'maximum impact' and maximum hip deceleration. The results showed that estimated and measured hip impact forces were linearly related (explained variances ranging from 46 to 63%). Hip impact forces of MA falls onto the mat from a standing position (3650±916N) estimated by the final model were comparable with measured values (3698±689N), even though these data were not used for training the model. In conclusion, a generic linear regression model was developed that enables the assessment of fall severity through kinematic measures of sideways falls, without using force plates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Modeling Source Water TOC Using Hydroclimate Variables and Local Polynomial Regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samson, Carleigh C; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Summers, R Scott

    2016-04-19

    To control disinfection byproduct (DBP) formation in drinking water, an understanding of the source water total organic carbon (TOC) concentration variability can be critical. Previously, TOC concentrations in water treatment plant source waters have been modeled using streamflow data. However, the lack of streamflow data or unimpaired flow scenarios makes it difficult to model TOC. In addition, TOC variability under climate change further exacerbates the problem. Here we proposed a modeling approach based on local polynomial regression that uses climate, e.g. temperature, and land surface, e.g., soil moisture, variables as predictors of TOC concentration, obviating the need for streamflow. The local polynomial approach has the ability to capture non-Gaussian and nonlinear features that might be present in the relationships. The utility of the methodology is demonstrated using source water quality and climate data in three case study locations with surface source waters including river and reservoir sources. The models show good predictive skill in general at these locations, with lower skills at locations with the most anthropogenic influences in their streams. Source water TOC predictive models can provide water treatment utilities important information for making treatment decisions for DBP regulation compliance under future climate scenarios.

  19. Fuzzy target selection using RFM variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaymak, U.

    2001-01-01

    An important data mining problem from the world of direct marketing is target selection. The main task in target selection is the determination of potential customers for a product from a client database. Target selection algorithms identify the profiles of customer groups for a particular product,

  20. Role of regression model selection and station distribution on the estimation of oceanic anthropogenic carbon change by eMLR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Plancherel

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying oceanic anthropogenic carbon uptake by monitoring interior dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC concentrations is complicated by the influence of natural variability. The "eMLR method" aims to address this issue by using empirical regression fits of the data instead of the data themselves, inferring the change in anthropogenic carbon in time by difference between predictions generated by the regressions at each time. The advantages of the method are that it provides in principle a means to filter out natural variability, which theoretically becomes the regression residuals, and a way to deal with sparsely and unevenly distributed data. The degree to which these advantages are realized in practice is unclear, however. The ability of the eMLR method to recover the anthropogenic carbon signal is tested here using a global circulation and biogeochemistry model in which the true signal is known. Results show that regression model selection is particularly important when the observational network changes in time. When the observational network is fixed, the likelihood that co-located systematic misfits between the empirical model and the underlying, yet unknown, true model cancel is greater, improving eMLR results. Changing the observational network modifies how the spatio-temporal variance pattern is captured by the respective datasets, resulting in empirical models that are dynamically or regionally inconsistent, leading to systematic errors. In consequence, the use of regression formulae that change in time to represent systematically best-fit models at all times does not guarantee the best estimates of anthropogenic carbon change if the spatial distributions of the stations emphasize hydrographic features differently in time. Other factors, such as a balanced and representative station coverage, vertical continuity of the regression formulae consistent with the hydrographic context and resiliency of the spatial distribution of the residual

  1. 10 km running performance predicted by a multiple linear regression model with allometrically adjusted variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abad, Cesar C C; Barros, Ronaldo V; Bertuzzi, Romulo; Gagliardi, João F L; Lima-Silva, Adriano E; Lambert, Mike I; Pires, Flavio O

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this study was to verify the power of VO 2max , peak treadmill running velocity (PTV), and running economy (RE), unadjusted or allometrically adjusted, in predicting 10 km running performance. Eighteen male endurance runners performed: 1) an incremental test to exhaustion to determine VO 2max and PTV; 2) a constant submaximal run at 12 km·h -1 on an outdoor track for RE determination; and 3) a 10 km running race. Unadjusted (VO 2max , PTV and RE) and adjusted variables (VO 2max 0.72 , PTV 0.72 and RE 0.60 ) were investigated through independent multiple regression models to predict 10 km running race time. There were no significant correlations between 10 km running time and either the adjusted or unadjusted VO 2max . Significant correlations (p 0.84 and power > 0.88. The allometrically adjusted predictive model was composed of PTV 0.72 and RE 0.60 and explained 83% of the variance in 10 km running time with a standard error of the estimate (SEE) of 1.5 min. The unadjusted model composed of a single PVT accounted for 72% of the variance in 10 km running time (SEE of 1.9 min). Both regression models provided powerful estimates of 10 km running time; however, the unadjusted PTV may provide an uncomplicated estimation.

  2. Laser-induced Breakdown spectroscopy quantitative analysis method via adaptive analytical line selection and relevance vector machine regression model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Jianhong; Yi, Cancan; Xu, Jinwu; Ma, Xianghong

    2015-01-01

    A new LIBS quantitative analysis method based on analytical line adaptive selection and Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) regression model is proposed. First, a scheme of adaptively selecting analytical line is put forward in order to overcome the drawback of high dependency on a priori knowledge. The candidate analytical lines are automatically selected based on the built-in characteristics of spectral lines, such as spectral intensity, wavelength and width at half height. The analytical lines which will be used as input variables of regression model are determined adaptively according to the samples for both training and testing. Second, an LIBS quantitative analysis method based on RVM is presented. The intensities of analytical lines and the elemental concentrations of certified standard samples are used to train the RVM regression model. The predicted elemental concentration analysis results will be given with a form of confidence interval of probabilistic distribution, which is helpful for evaluating the uncertainness contained in the measured spectra. Chromium concentration analysis experiments of 23 certified standard high-alloy steel samples have been carried out. The multiple correlation coefficient of the prediction was up to 98.85%, and the average relative error of the prediction was 4.01%. The experiment results showed that the proposed LIBS quantitative analysis method achieved better prediction accuracy and better modeling robustness compared with the methods based on partial least squares regression, artificial neural network and standard support vector machine. - Highlights: • Both training and testing samples are considered for analytical lines selection. • The analytical lines are auto-selected based on the built-in characteristics of spectral lines. • The new method can achieve better prediction accuracy and modeling robustness. • Model predictions are given with confidence interval of probabilistic distribution

  3. A simple bias correction in linear regression for quantitative trait association under two-tail extreme selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwan, Johnny S H; Kung, Annie W C; Sham, Pak C

    2011-09-01

    Selective genotyping can increase power in quantitative trait association. One example of selective genotyping is two-tail extreme selection, but simple linear regression analysis gives a biased genetic effect estimate. Here, we present a simple correction for the bias.

  4. gamboostLSS: An R Package for Model Building and Variable Selection in the GAMLSS Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Hofner, Benjamin; Mayr, Andreas; Schmid, Matthias

    2014-01-01

    Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape are a flexible class of regression models that allow to model multiple parameters of a distribution function, such as the mean and the standard deviation, simultaneously. With the R package gamboostLSS, we provide a boosting method to fit these models. Variable selection and model choice are naturally available within this regularized regression framework. To introduce and illustrate the R package gamboostLSS and its infrastructure, we...

  5. A Meta-Heuristic Regression-Based Feature Selection for Predictive Analytics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bharat Singh

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A high-dimensional feature selection having a very large number of features with an optimal feature subset is an NP-complete problem. Because conventional optimization techniques are unable to tackle large-scale feature selection problems, meta-heuristic algorithms are widely used. In this paper, we propose a particle swarm optimization technique while utilizing regression techniques for feature selection. We then use the selected features to classify the data. Classification accuracy is used as a criterion to evaluate classifier performance, and classification is accomplished through the use of k-nearest neighbour (KNN and Bayesian techniques. Various high dimensional data sets are used to evaluate the usefulness of the proposed approach. Results show that our approach gives better results when compared with other conventional feature selection algorithms.

  6. Continuous-variable quantum Gaussian process regression and quantum singular value decomposition of nonsparse low-rank matrices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Siddhartha; Siopsis, George; Weedbrook, Christian

    2018-02-01

    With the significant advancement in quantum computation during the past couple of decades, the exploration of machine-learning subroutines using quantum strategies has become increasingly popular. Gaussian process regression is a widely used technique in supervised classical machine learning. Here we introduce an algorithm for Gaussian process regression using continuous-variable quantum systems that can be realized with technology based on photonic quantum computers under certain assumptions regarding distribution of data and availability of efficient quantum access. Our algorithm shows that by using a continuous-variable quantum computer a dramatic speedup in computing Gaussian process regression can be achieved, i.e., the possibility of exponentially reducing the time to compute. Furthermore, our results also include a continuous-variable quantum-assisted singular value decomposition method of nonsparse low rank matrices and forms an important subroutine in our Gaussian process regression algorithm.

  7. Seasonal Variability of Aragonite Saturation State in the North Pacific Ocean Predicted by Multiple Linear Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, T. W.; Park, G. H.

    2014-12-01

    Seasonal variation of aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) in the North Pacific Ocean (NPO) was investigated, using multiple linear regression (MLR) models produced from the PACIFICA (Pacific Ocean interior carbon) dataset. Data within depth ranges of 50-1200m were used to derive MLR models, and three parameters (potential temperature, nitrate, and apparent oxygen utilization (AOU)) were chosen as predictor variables because these parameters are associated with vertical mixing, DIC (dissolved inorganic carbon) removal and release which all affect Ωarag in water column directly or indirectly. The PACIFICA dataset was divided into 5° × 5° grids, and a MLR model was produced in each grid, giving total 145 independent MLR models over the NPO. Mean RMSE (root mean square error) and r2 (coefficient of determination) of all derived MLR models were approximately 0.09 and 0.96, respectively. Then the obtained MLR coefficients for each of predictor variables and an intercept were interpolated over the study area, thereby making possible to allocate MLR coefficients to data-sparse ocean regions. Predictability from the interpolated coefficients was evaluated using Hawaiian time-series data, and as a result mean residual between measured and predicted Ωarag values was approximately 0.08, which is less than the mean RMSE of our MLR models. The interpolated MLR coefficients were combined with seasonal climatology of World Ocean Atlas 2013 (1° × 1°) to produce seasonal Ωarag distributions over various depths. Large seasonal variability in Ωarag was manifested in the mid-latitude Western NPO (24-40°N, 130-180°E) and low-latitude Eastern NPO (0-12°N, 115-150°W). In the Western NPO, seasonal fluctuations of water column stratification appeared to be responsible for the seasonal variation in Ωarag (~ 0.5 at 50 m) because it closely followed temperature variations in a layer of 0-75 m. In contrast, remineralization of organic matter was the main cause for the seasonal

  8. THE TIME DOMAIN SPECTROSCOPIC SURVEY: VARIABLE SELECTION AND ANTICIPATED RESULTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morganson, Eric; Green, Paul J. [Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden St, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Anderson, Scott F.; Ruan, John J. [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Box 351580, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Myers, Adam D. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071 (United States); Eracleous, Michael; Brandt, William Nielsen [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 525 Davey Laboratory, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Kelly, Brandon [Department of Physics, Broida Hall, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-9530 (United States); Badenes, Carlos [Department of Physics and Astronomy and Pittsburgh Particle Physics, Astrophysics and Cosmology Center (PITT PACC), University of Pittsburgh, 3941 O’Hara St, Pittsburgh, PA 15260 (United States); Bañados, Eduardo [Max-Planck-Institut für Astronomie, Königstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Blanton, Michael R. [Center for Cosmology and Particle Physics, Department of Physics, New York University, 4 Washington Place, New York, NY 10003 (United States); Bershady, Matthew A. [Department of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin, 475 N. Charter St., Madison, WI 53706 (United States); Borissova, Jura [Instituto de Física y Astronomía, Universidad de Valparaíso, Av. Gran Bretaña 1111, Playa Ancha, Casilla 5030, and Millennium Institute of Astrophysics (MAS), Santiago (Chile); Burgett, William S. [GMTO Corp, Suite 300, 251 S. Lake Ave, Pasadena, CA 91101 (United States); Chambers, Kenneth, E-mail: emorganson@cfa.harvard.edu [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); and others

    2015-06-20

    We present the selection algorithm and anticipated results for the Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey (TDSS). TDSS is an Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS)-IV Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) subproject that will provide initial identification spectra of approximately 220,000 luminosity-variable objects (variable stars and active galactic nuclei across 7500 deg{sup 2} selected from a combination of SDSS and multi-epoch Pan-STARRS1 photometry. TDSS will be the largest spectroscopic survey to explicitly target variable objects, avoiding pre-selection on the basis of colors or detailed modeling of specific variability characteristics. Kernel Density Estimate analysis of our target population performed on SDSS Stripe 82 data suggests our target sample will be 95% pure (meaning 95% of objects we select have genuine luminosity variability of a few magnitudes or more). Our final spectroscopic sample will contain roughly 135,000 quasars and 85,000 stellar variables, approximately 4000 of which will be RR Lyrae stars which may be used as outer Milky Way probes. The variability-selected quasar population has a smoother redshift distribution than a color-selected sample, and variability measurements similar to those we develop here may be used to make more uniform quasar samples in large surveys. The stellar variable targets are distributed fairly uniformly across color space, indicating that TDSS will obtain spectra for a wide variety of stellar variables including pulsating variables, stars with significant chromospheric activity, cataclysmic variables, and eclipsing binaries. TDSS will serve as a pathfinder mission to identify and characterize the multitude of variable objects that will be detected photometrically in even larger variability surveys such as Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.

  9. Logistic Regression for Seismically Induced Landslide Predictions: Using Uniform Hazard and Geophysical Layers as Predictor Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowicki, M. A.; Hearne, M.; Thompson, E.; Wald, D. J.

    2012-12-01

    Seismically induced landslides present a costly and often fatal threats in many mountainous regions. Substantial effort has been invested to understand where seismically induced landslides may occur in the future. Both slope-stability methods and, more recently, statistical approaches to the problem are described throughout the literature. Though some regional efforts have succeeded, no uniformly agreed-upon method is available for predicting the likelihood and spatial extent of seismically induced landslides. For use in the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, we would like to routinely make such estimates, in near-real time, around the globe. Here we use the recently produced USGS ShakeMap Atlas of historic earthquakes to develop an empirical landslide probability model. We focus on recent events, yet include any digitally-mapped landslide inventories for which well-constrained ShakeMaps are also available. We combine these uniform estimates of the input shaking (e.g., peak acceleration and velocity) with broadly available susceptibility proxies, such as topographic slope and surface geology. The resulting database is used to build a predictive model of the probability of landslide occurrence with logistic regression. The landslide database includes observations from the Northridge, California (1994); Wenchuan, China (2008); ChiChi, Taiwan (1999); and Chuetsu, Japan (2004) earthquakes; we also provide ShakeMaps for moderate-sized events without landslide for proper model testing and training. The performance of the regression model is assessed with both statistical goodness-of-fit metrics and a qualitative review of whether or not the model is able to capture the spatial extent of landslides for each event. Part of our goal is to determine which variables can be employed based on globally-available data or proxies, and whether or not modeling results from one region are transferrable to

  10. The Effect of Latent Binary Variables on the Uncertainty of the Prediction of a Dichotomous Outcome Using Logistic Regression Based Propensity Score Matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szekér, Szabolcs; Vathy-Fogarassy, Ágnes

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression based propensity score matching is a widely used method in case-control studies to select the individuals of the control group. This method creates a suitable control group if all factors affecting the output variable are known. However, if relevant latent variables exist as well, which are not taken into account during the calculations, the quality of the control group is uncertain. In this paper, we present a statistics-based research in which we try to determine the relationship between the accuracy of the logistic regression model and the uncertainty of the dependent variable of the control group defined by propensity score matching. Our analyses show that there is a linear correlation between the fit of the logistic regression model and the uncertainty of the output variable. In certain cases, a latent binary explanatory variable can result in a relative error of up to 70% in the prediction of the outcome variable. The observed phenomenon calls the attention of analysts to an important point, which must be taken into account when deducting conclusions.

  11. Relationship between the curve of Spee and craniofacial variables: A regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halimi, Abdelali; Benyahia, Hicham; Azeroual, Mohamed-Faouzi; Bahije, Loubna; Zaoui, Fatima

    2018-06-01

    The aim of this regression analysis was to identify the determining factors, which impact the curve of Spee during its genesis, its therapeutic reconstruction, and its stability, within a continuously evolving craniofacial morphology throughout life. We selected a total of 107 patients, according to the inclusion criteria. A morphological and functional clinical examination was performed for each patient: plaster models, tracing of the curve of Spee, crowding, Angle's classification, overjet and overbite were thus recorded. Then, we made a cephalometric analysis based on the standardized lateral cephalograms. In the sagittal dimension, we measured the values of angles ANB, SNA, SNB, SND, I/i; and the following distances: AoBo, I/NA, i/NB, SE and SL. In the vertical dimension, we measured the values of angles FMA, GoGn/SN, the occlusal plane, and the following distances: SAr, ArD, Ar/Con, Con/Gn, GoPo, HFP, HFA and IF. The statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS software with a significance level of 0.05. Our sample including 107 subjects was composed of 77 female patients (71.3%) and 30 male patients (27.8%) 7 hypodivergent patients (6.5%), 56 hyperdivergent patients (52.3%) and 44 normodivergent patients (41.1%). Patients' mean age was 19.35±5.95 years. The hypodivergent patients presented more pronounced curves of Spee compared to the normodivergent and the hyperdivergent populations; patients in skeletal Class I presented less pronounced curves of Spee compared to patients in skeletal Class II and Class III. These differences were non significant (P>0.05). The curve of Spee was positively and moderately correlated with Angle's classification, overjet, overbite, sellion-articulare distance, and breathing type (P0.05). Seventy five percent (75%) of the hyperdivergent patients with an oral breathing presented an overbite of 3mm, which is quite excessive given the characteristics often admitted for this typology; this parameter could explain the overbite

  12. Linear regression

    CERN Document Server

    Olive, David J

    2017-01-01

    This text covers both multiple linear regression and some experimental design models. The text uses the response plot to visualize the model and to detect outliers, does not assume that the error distribution has a known parametric distribution, develops prediction intervals that work when the error distribution is unknown, suggests bootstrap hypothesis tests that may be useful for inference after variable selection, and develops prediction regions and large sample theory for the multivariate linear regression model that has m response variables. A relationship between multivariate prediction regions and confidence regions provides a simple way to bootstrap confidence regions. These confidence regions often provide a practical method for testing hypotheses. There is also a chapter on generalized linear models and generalized additive models. There are many R functions to produce response and residual plots, to simulate prediction intervals and hypothesis tests, to detect outliers, and to choose response trans...

  13. Fasting Glucose and the Risk of Depressive Symptoms: Instrumental-Variable Regression in the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesołowska, Karolina; Elovainio, Marko; Hintsa, Taina; Jokela, Markus; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Pitkänen, Niina; Lipsanen, Jari; Tukiainen, Janne; Lyytikäinen, Leo-Pekka; Lehtimäki, Terho; Juonala, Markus; Raitakari, Olli; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa

    2017-12-01

    Type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been associated with depressive symptoms, but the causal direction of this association and the underlying mechanisms, such as increased glucose levels, remain unclear. We used instrumental-variable regression with a genetic instrument (Mendelian randomization) to examine a causal role of increased glucose concentrations in the development of depressive symptoms. Data were from the population-based Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study (n = 1217). Depressive symptoms were assessed in 2012 using a modified Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-I). Fasting glucose was measured concurrently with depressive symptoms. A genetic risk score for fasting glucose (with 35 single nucleotide polymorphisms) was used as an instrumental variable for glucose. Glucose was not associated with depressive symptoms in the standard linear regression (B = -0.04, 95% CI [-0.12, 0.04], p = .34), but the instrumental-variable regression showed an inverse association between glucose and depressive symptoms (B = -0.43, 95% CI [-0.79, -0.07], p = .020). The difference between the estimates of standard linear regression and instrumental-variable regression was significant (p = .026) CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the association between T2D and depressive symptoms is unlikely to be caused by increased glucose concentrations. It seems possible that T2D might be linked to depressive symptoms due to low glucose levels.

  14. Multiresponse semiparametric regression for modelling the effect of regional socio-economic variables on the use of information technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wibowo, Wahyu; Wene, Chatrien; Budiantara, I. Nyoman; Permatasari, Erma Oktania

    2017-03-01

    Multiresponse semiparametric regression is simultaneous equation regression model and fusion of parametric and nonparametric model. The regression model comprise several models and each model has two components, parametric and nonparametric. The used model has linear function as parametric and polynomial truncated spline as nonparametric component. The model can handle both linearity and nonlinearity relationship between response and the sets of predictor variables. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of the regression model for modeling of effect of regional socio-economic on use of information technology. More specific, the response variables are percentage of households has access to internet and percentage of households has personal computer. Then, predictor variables are percentage of literacy people, percentage of electrification and percentage of economic growth. Based on identification of the relationship between response and predictor variable, economic growth is treated as nonparametric predictor and the others are parametric predictors. The result shows that the multiresponse semiparametric regression can be applied well as indicate by the high coefficient determination, 90 percent.

  15. Using variable combination population analysis for variable selection in multivariate calibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Yong-Huan; Wang, Wei-Ting; Deng, Bai-Chuan; Lai, Guang-Bi; Liu, Xin-bo; Ren, Da-Bing; Liang, Yi-Zeng; Fan, Wei; Xu, Qing-Song

    2015-03-03

    Variable (wavelength or feature) selection techniques have become a critical step for the analysis of datasets with high number of variables and relatively few samples. In this study, a novel variable selection strategy, variable combination population analysis (VCPA), was proposed. This strategy consists of two crucial procedures. First, the exponentially decreasing function (EDF), which is the simple and effective principle of 'survival of the fittest' from Darwin's natural evolution theory, is employed to determine the number of variables to keep and continuously shrink the variable space. Second, in each EDF run, binary matrix sampling (BMS) strategy that gives each variable the same chance to be selected and generates different variable combinations, is used to produce a population of subsets to construct a population of sub-models. Then, model population analysis (MPA) is employed to find the variable subsets with the lower root mean squares error of cross validation (RMSECV). The frequency of each variable appearing in the best 10% sub-models is computed. The higher the frequency is, the more important the variable is. The performance of the proposed procedure was investigated using three real NIR datasets. The results indicate that VCPA is a good variable selection strategy when compared with four high performing variable selection methods: genetic algorithm-partial least squares (GA-PLS), Monte Carlo uninformative variable elimination by PLS (MC-UVE-PLS), competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (CARS) and iteratively retains informative variables (IRIV). The MATLAB source code of VCPA is available for academic research on the website: http://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/authors/498750. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. A numeric comparison of variable selection algorithms for supervised learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palombo, G.; Narsky, I.

    2009-01-01

    Datasets in modern High Energy Physics (HEP) experiments are often described by dozens or even hundreds of input variables. Reducing a full variable set to a subset that most completely represents information about data is therefore an important task in analysis of HEP data. We compare various variable selection algorithms for supervised learning using several datasets such as, for instance, imaging gamma-ray Cherenkov telescope (MAGIC) data found at the UCI repository. We use classifiers and variable selection methods implemented in the statistical package StatPatternRecognition (SPR), a free open-source C++ package developed in the HEP community ( (http://sourceforge.net/projects/statpatrec/)). For each dataset, we select a powerful classifier and estimate its learning accuracy on variable subsets obtained by various selection algorithms. When possible, we also estimate the CPU time needed for the variable subset selection. The results of this analysis are compared with those published previously for these datasets using other statistical packages such as R and Weka. We show that the most accurate, yet slowest, method is a wrapper algorithm known as generalized sequential forward selection ('Add N Remove R') implemented in SPR.

  17. A Variable-Selection Heuristic for K-Means Clustering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brusco, Michael J.; Cradit, J. Dennis

    2001-01-01

    Presents a variable selection heuristic for nonhierarchical (K-means) cluster analysis based on the adjusted Rand index for measuring cluster recovery. Subjected the heuristic to Monte Carlo testing across more than 2,200 datasets. Results indicate that the heuristic is extremely effective at eliminating masking variables. (SLD)

  18. Straight line fitting and predictions: On a marginal likelihood approach to linear regression and errors-in-variables models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Bo

    2015-04-01

    Linear regression methods are without doubt the most used approaches to describe and predict data in the physical sciences. They are often good first order approximations and they are in general easier to apply and interpret than more advanced methods. However, even the properties of univariate regression can lead to debate over the appropriateness of various models as witnessed by the recent discussion about climate reconstruction methods. Before linear regression is applied important choices have to be made regarding the origins of the noise terms and regarding which of the two variables under consideration that should be treated as the independent variable. These decisions are often not easy to make but they may have a considerable impact on the results. We seek to give a unified probabilistic - Bayesian with flat priors - treatment of univariate linear regression and prediction by taking, as starting point, the general errors-in-variables model (Christiansen, J. Clim., 27, 2014-2031, 2014). Other versions of linear regression can be obtained as limits of this model. We derive the likelihood of the model parameters and predictands of the general errors-in-variables model by marginalizing over the nuisance parameters. The resulting likelihood is relatively simple and easy to analyze and calculate. The well known unidentifiability of the errors-in-variables model is manifested as the absence of a well-defined maximum in the likelihood. However, this does not mean that probabilistic inference can not be made; the marginal likelihoods of model parameters and the predictands have, in general, well-defined maxima. We also include a probabilistic version of classical calibration and show how it is related to the errors-in-variables model. The results are illustrated by an example from the coupling between the lower stratosphere and the troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere winter.

  19. Novel Harmonic Regularization Approach for Variable Selection in Cox’s Proportional Hazards Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ge-Jin Chu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Variable selection is an important issue in regression and a number of variable selection methods have been proposed involving nonconvex penalty functions. In this paper, we investigate a novel harmonic regularization method, which can approximate nonconvex Lq  (1/2select key risk factors in the Cox’s proportional hazards model using microarray gene expression data. The harmonic regularization method can be efficiently solved using our proposed direct path seeking approach, which can produce solutions that closely approximate those for the convex loss function and the nonconvex regularization. Simulation results based on the artificial datasets and four real microarray gene expression datasets, such as real diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DCBCL, the lung cancer, and the AML datasets, show that the harmonic regularization method can be more accurate for variable selection than existing Lasso series methods.

  20. Auxiliary variables in multiple imputation in regression with missing X: a warning against including too many in small sample research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hardt Jochen

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multiple imputation is becoming increasingly popular. Theoretical considerations as well as simulation studies have shown that the inclusion of auxiliary variables is generally of benefit. Methods A simulation study of a linear regression with a response Y and two predictors X1 and X2 was performed on data with n = 50, 100 and 200 using complete cases or multiple imputation with 0, 10, 20, 40 and 80 auxiliary variables. Mechanisms of missingness were either 100% MCAR or 50% MAR + 50% MCAR. Auxiliary variables had low (r=.10 vs. moderate correlations (r=.50 with X’s and Y. Results The inclusion of auxiliary variables can improve a multiple imputation model. However, inclusion of too many variables leads to downward bias of regression coefficients and decreases precision. When the correlations are low, inclusion of auxiliary variables is not useful. Conclusion More research on auxiliary variables in multiple imputation should be performed. A preliminary rule of thumb could be that the ratio of variables to cases with complete data should not go below 1 : 3.

  1. Latent Variable Regression 4-Level Hierarchical Model Using Multisite Multiple-Cohorts Longitudinal Data. CRESST Report 801

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Kilchan

    2011-01-01

    This report explores a new latent variable regression 4-level hierarchical model for monitoring school performance over time using multisite multiple-cohorts longitudinal data. This kind of data set has a 4-level hierarchical structure: time-series observation nested within students who are nested within different cohorts of students. These…

  2. Effects of categorization method, regression type, and variable distribution on the inflation of Type-I error rate when categorizing a confounding variable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnwell-Ménard, Jean-Louis; Li, Qing; Cohen, Alan A

    2015-03-15

    The loss of signal associated with categorizing a continuous variable is well known, and previous studies have demonstrated that this can lead to an inflation of Type-I error when the categorized variable is a confounder in a regression analysis estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome. However, it is not known how the Type-I error may vary under different circumstances, including logistic versus linear regression, different distributions of the confounder, and different categorization methods. Here, we analytically quantified the effect of categorization and then performed a series of 9600 Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the Type-I error inflation associated with categorization of a confounder under different regression scenarios. We show that Type-I error is unacceptably high (>10% in most scenarios and often 100%). The only exception was when the variable categorized was a continuous mixture proxy for a genuinely dichotomous latent variable, where both the continuous proxy and the categorized variable are error-ridden proxies for the dichotomous latent variable. As expected, error inflation was also higher with larger sample size, fewer categories, and stronger associations between the confounder and the exposure or outcome. We provide online tools that can help researchers estimate the potential error inflation and understand how serious a problem this is. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Application of Robust Regression and Bootstrap in Poductivity Analysis of GERD Variable in EU27

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dagmar Blatná

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The GERD is one of Europe 2020 headline indicators being tracked within the Europe 2020 strategy. The headline indicator is the 3% target for the GERD to be reached within the EU by 2020. Eurostat defi nes “GERD” as total gross domestic expenditure on research and experimental development in a percentage of GDP. GERD depends on numerous factors of a general economic background, namely of employment, innovation and research, science and technology. The values of these indicators vary among the European countries, and consequently the occurrence of outliers can be anticipated in corresponding analyses. In such a case, a classical statistical approach – the least squares method – can be highly unreliable, the robust regression methods representing an acceptable and useful tool. The aim of the present paper is to demonstrate the advantages of robust regression and applicability of the bootstrap approach in regression based on both classical and robust methods.

  4. Survival Prediction and Feature Selection in Patients with Breast Cancer Using Support Vector Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahrbanoo Goli

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Support Vector Regression (SVR model has been broadly used for response prediction. However, few researchers have used SVR for survival analysis. In this study, a new SVR model is proposed and SVR with different kernels and the traditional Cox model are trained. The models are compared based on different performance measures. We also select the best subset of features using three feature selection methods: combination of SVR and statistical tests, univariate feature selection based on concordance index, and recursive feature elimination. The evaluations are performed using available medical datasets and also a Breast Cancer (BC dataset consisting of 573 patients who visited the Oncology Clinic of Hamadan province in Iran. Results show that, for the BC dataset, survival time can be predicted more accurately by linear SVR than nonlinear SVR. Based on the three feature selection methods, metastasis status, progesterone receptor status, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status are the best features associated to survival. Also, according to the obtained results, performance of linear and nonlinear kernels is comparable. The proposed SVR model performs similar to or slightly better than other models. Also, SVR performs similar to or better than Cox when all features are included in model.

  5. Bayesian Multiresolution Variable Selection for Ultra-High Dimensional Neuroimaging Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yize; Kang, Jian; Long, Qi

    2018-01-01

    Ultra-high dimensional variable selection has become increasingly important in analysis of neuroimaging data. For example, in the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE) study, neuroscientists are interested in identifying important biomarkers for early detection of the autism spectrum disorder (ASD) using high resolution brain images that include hundreds of thousands voxels. However, most existing methods are not feasible for solving this problem due to their extensive computational costs. In this work, we propose a novel multiresolution variable selection procedure under a Bayesian probit regression framework. It recursively uses posterior samples for coarser-scale variable selection to guide the posterior inference on finer-scale variable selection, leading to very efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. The proposed algorithms are computationally feasible for ultra-high dimensional data. Also, our model incorporates two levels of structural information into variable selection using Ising priors: the spatial dependence between voxels and the functional connectivity between anatomical brain regions. Applied to the resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (R-fMRI) data in the ABIDE study, our methods identify voxel-level imaging biomarkers highly predictive of the ASD, which are biologically meaningful and interpretable. Extensive simulations also show that our methods achieve better performance in variable selection compared to existing methods.

  6. Variable selection for mixture and promotion time cure rate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masud, Abdullah; Tu, Wanzhu; Yu, Zhangsheng

    2016-11-16

    Failure-time data with cured patients are common in clinical studies. Data from these studies are typically analyzed with cure rate models. Variable selection methods have not been well developed for cure rate models. In this research, we propose two least absolute shrinkage and selection operators based methods, for variable selection in mixture and promotion time cure models with parametric or nonparametric baseline hazards. We conduct an extensive simulation study to assess the operating characteristics of the proposed methods. We illustrate the use of the methods using data from a study of childhood wheezing. © The Author(s) 2016.

  7. A Diagrammatic Exposition of Regression and Instrumental Variables for the Beginning Student

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Gigi

    2009-01-01

    Some beginning students of statistics and econometrics have difficulty with traditional algebraic approaches to explaining regression and related techniques. For these students, a simple and intuitive diagrammatic introduction as advocated by Kennedy (2008) may prove a useful framework to support further study. The author presents a series of…

  8. Weighted linear regression using D2H and D2 as the independent variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hans T. Schreuder; Michael S. Williams

    1998-01-01

    Several error structures for weighted regression equations used for predicting volume were examined for 2 large data sets of felled and standing loblolly pine trees (Pinus taeda L.). The generally accepted model with variance of error proportional to the value of the covariate squared ( D2H = diameter squared times height or D...

  9. Combining epidemiologic and biostatistical tools to enhance variable selection in HIV cohort analyses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Rentsch

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Variable selection is an important step in building a multivariate regression model for which several methods and statistical packages are available. A comprehensive approach for variable selection in complex multivariate regression analyses within HIV cohorts is explored by utilizing both epidemiological and biostatistical procedures. METHODS: Three different methods for variable selection were illustrated in a study comparing survival time between subjects in the Department of Defense's National History Study and the Atlanta Veterans Affairs Medical Center's HIV Atlanta VA Cohort Study. The first two methods were stepwise selection procedures, based either on significance tests (Score test, or on information theory (Akaike Information Criterion, while the third method employed a Bayesian argument (Bayesian Model Averaging. RESULTS: All three methods resulted in a similar parsimonious survival model. Three of the covariates previously used in the multivariate model were not included in the final model suggested by the three approaches. When comparing the parsimonious model to the previously published model, there was evidence of less variance in the main survival estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The variable selection approaches considered in this study allowed building a model based on significance tests, on an information criterion, and on averaging models using their posterior probabilities. A parsimonious model that balanced these three approaches was found to provide a better fit than the previously reported model.

  10. A novel variable selection approach that iteratively optimizes variable space using weighted binary matrix sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Bai-chuan; Yun, Yong-huan; Liang, Yi-zeng; Yi, Lun-zhao

    2014-10-07

    In this study, a new optimization algorithm called the Variable Iterative Space Shrinkage Approach (VISSA) that is based on the idea of model population analysis (MPA) is proposed for variable selection. Unlike most of the existing optimization methods for variable selection, VISSA statistically evaluates the performance of variable space in each step of optimization. Weighted binary matrix sampling (WBMS) is proposed to generate sub-models that span the variable subspace. Two rules are highlighted during the optimization procedure. First, the variable space shrinks in each step. Second, the new variable space outperforms the previous one. The second rule, which is rarely satisfied in most of the existing methods, is the core of the VISSA strategy. Compared with some promising variable selection methods such as competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (CARS), Monte Carlo uninformative variable elimination (MCUVE) and iteratively retaining informative variables (IRIV), VISSA showed better prediction ability for the calibration of NIR data. In addition, VISSA is user-friendly; only a few insensitive parameters are needed, and the program terminates automatically without any additional conditions. The Matlab codes for implementing VISSA are freely available on the website: https://sourceforge.net/projects/multivariateanalysis/files/VISSA/.

  11. Evaluation of heat transfer mathematical models and multiple linear regression to predict the inside variables in semi-solar greenhouse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Taki

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Controlling greenhouse microclimate not only influences the growth of plants, but also is critical in the spread of diseases inside the greenhouse. The microclimate parameters were inside air, greenhouse roof and soil temperature, relative humidity and solar radiation intensity. Predicting the microclimate conditions inside a greenhouse and enabling the use of automatic control systems are the two main objectives of greenhouse climate model. The microclimate inside a greenhouse can be predicted by conducting experiments or by using simulation. Static and dynamic models are used for this purpose as a function of the metrological conditions and the parameters of the greenhouse components. Some works were done in past to 2015 year to simulation and predict the inside variables in different greenhouse structures. Usually simulation has a lot of problems to predict the inside climate of greenhouse and the error of simulation is higher in literature. The main objective of this paper is comparison between heat transfer and regression models to evaluate them to predict inside air and roof temperature in a semi-solar greenhouse in Tabriz University. Materials and Methods In this study, a semi-solar greenhouse was designed and constructed at the North-West of Iran in Azerbaijan Province (geographical location of 38°10′ N and 46°18′ E with elevation of 1364 m above the sea level. In this research, shape and orientation of the greenhouse, selected between some greenhouses common shapes and according to receive maximum solar radiation whole the year. Also internal thermal screen and cement north wall was used to store and prevent of heat lost during the cold period of year. So we called this structure, ‘semi-solar’ greenhouse. It was covered with glass (4 mm thickness. It occupies a surface of approximately 15.36 m2 and 26.4 m3. The orientation of this greenhouse was East–West and perpendicular to the direction of the wind prevailing

  12. Variable selection in PLSR and extensions to a multi-block setting for metabolomics data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karaman, İbrahim; Hedemann, Mette Skou; Knudsen, Knud Erik Bach

    When applying LC-MS or NMR spectroscopy in metabolomics studies, high-dimensional data are generated and effective tools for variable selection are needed in order to detect the important metabolites. Methods based on sparsity combined with PLSR have recently attracted attention in the field...... of genomics [1]. They became quickly well established in the field of statistics because a close relationship to elastic net has been established. In sparse variable selection combined with PLSR, a soft thresholding is applied on each loading weight separately. In the field of chemometrics Jack-knifing has...... been introduced for variable selection in PLSR [2]. Jack-knifing has been frequently applied in the field of spectroscopy and is implemented in software tools like The Unscrambler. In Jack-knifing uncertainty estimates of regression coefficients are estimated and a t-test is applied on these estimates...

  13. A Poisson regression approach to model monthly hail occurrence in Northern Switzerland using large-scale environmental variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madonna, Erica; Ginsbourger, David; Martius, Olivia

    2018-05-01

    In Switzerland, hail regularly causes substantial damage to agriculture, cars and infrastructure, however, little is known about its long-term variability. To study the variability, the monthly number of days with hail in northern Switzerland is modeled in a regression framework using large-scale predictors derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis. The model is developed and verified using radar-based hail observations for the extended summer season (April-September) in the period 2002-2014. The seasonality of hail is explicitly modeled with a categorical predictor (month) and monthly anomalies of several large-scale predictors are used to capture the year-to-year variability. Several regression models are applied and their performance tested with respect to standard scores and cross-validation. The chosen model includes four predictors: the monthly anomaly of the two meter temperature, the monthly anomaly of the logarithm of the convective available potential energy (CAPE), the monthly anomaly of the wind shear and the month. This model well captures the intra-annual variability and slightly underestimates its inter-annual variability. The regression model is applied to the reanalysis data back in time to 1980. The resulting hail day time series shows an increase of the number of hail days per month, which is (in the model) related to an increase in temperature and CAPE. The trend corresponds to approximately 0.5 days per month per decade. The results of the regression model have been compared to two independent data sets. All data sets agree on the sign of the trend, but the trend is weaker in the other data sets.

  14. Regressive research: The pitfalls of post hoc data selection in the study of unconscious mental processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanks, David R

    2017-06-01

    Many studies of unconscious processing involve comparing a performance measure (e.g., some assessment of perception or memory) with an awareness measure (such as a verbal report or a forced-choice response) taken either concurrently or separately. Unconscious processing is inferred when above-chance performance is combined with null awareness. Often, however, aggregate awareness is better than chance, and data analysis therefore employs a form of extreme group analysis focusing post hoc on participants, trials, or items where awareness is absent or at chance. The pitfalls of this analytic approach are described with particular reference to recent research on implicit learning and subliminal perception. Because of regression to the mean, the approach can mislead researchers into erroneous conclusions concerning unconscious influences on behavior. Recommendations are made about future use of post hoc selection in research on unconscious cognition.

  15. A simple bias correction in linear regression for quantitative trait association under two-tail extreme selection

    OpenAIRE

    Kwan, Johnny S. H.; Kung, Annie W. C.; Sham, Pak C.

    2011-01-01

    Selective genotyping can increase power in quantitative trait association. One example of selective genotyping is two-tail extreme selection, but simple linear regression analysis gives a biased genetic effect estimate. Here, we present a simple correction for the bias. © The Author(s) 2011.

  16. Meta-Statistics for Variable Selection: The R Package BioMark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ron Wehrens

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Biomarker identification is an ever more important topic in the life sciences. With the advent of measurement methodologies based on microarrays and mass spectrometry, thousands of variables are routinely being measured on complex biological samples. Often, the question is what makes two groups of samples different. Classical hypothesis testing suffers from the multiple testing problem; however, correcting for this often leads to a lack of power. In addition, choosing α cutoff levels remains somewhat arbitrary. Also in a regression context, a model depending on few but relevant variables will be more accurate and precise, and easier to interpret biologically.We propose an R package, BioMark, implementing two meta-statistics for variable selection. The first, higher criticism, presents a data-dependent selection threshold for significance, instead of a cookbook value of α = 0.05. It is applicable in all cases where two groups are compared. The second, stability selection, is more general, and can also be applied in a regression context. This approach uses repeated subsampling of the data in order to assess the variability of the model coefficients and selects those that remain consistently important. It is shown using experimental spike-in data from the field of metabolomics that both approaches work well with real data. BioMark also contains functionality for simulating data with specific characteristics for algorithm development and testing.

  17. The Properties of Model Selection when Retaining Theory Variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendry, David F.; Johansen, Søren

    Economic theories are often fitted directly to data to avoid possible model selection biases. We show that embedding a theory model that specifies the correct set of m relevant exogenous variables, x{t}, within the larger set of m+k candidate variables, (x{t},w{t}), then selection over the second...... set by their statistical significance can be undertaken without affecting the estimator distribution of the theory parameters. This strategy returns the theory-parameter estimates when the theory is correct, yet protects against the theory being under-specified because some w{t} are relevant....

  18. Multivariate linear regression of high-dimensional fMRI data with multiple target variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valente, Giancarlo; Castellanos, Agustin Lage; Vanacore, Gianluca; Formisano, Elia

    2014-05-01

    Multivariate regression is increasingly used to study the relation between fMRI spatial activation patterns and experimental stimuli or behavioral ratings. With linear models, informative brain locations are identified by mapping the model coefficients. This is a central aspect in neuroimaging, as it provides the sought-after link between the activity of neuronal populations and subject's perception, cognition or behavior. Here, we show that mapping of informative brain locations using multivariate linear regression (MLR) may lead to incorrect conclusions and interpretations. MLR algorithms for high dimensional data are designed to deal with targets (stimuli or behavioral ratings, in fMRI) separately, and the predictive map of a model integrates information deriving from both neural activity patterns and experimental design. Not accounting explicitly for the presence of other targets whose associated activity spatially overlaps with the one of interest may lead to predictive maps of troublesome interpretation. We propose a new model that can correctly identify the spatial patterns associated with a target while achieving good generalization. For each target, the training is based on an augmented dataset, which includes all remaining targets. The estimation on such datasets produces both maps and interaction coefficients, which are then used to generalize. The proposed formulation is independent of the regression algorithm employed. We validate this model on simulated fMRI data and on a publicly available dataset. Results indicate that our method achieves high spatial sensitivity and good generalization and that it helps disentangle specific neural effects from interaction with predictive maps associated with other targets. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Optimal Inference for Instrumental Variables Regression with non-Gaussian Errors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cattaneo, Matias D.; Crump, Richard K.; Jansson, Michael

    This paper is concerned with inference on the coefficient on the endogenous regressor in a linear instrumental variables model with a single endogenous regressor, nonrandom exogenous regressors and instruments, and i.i.d. errors whose distribution is unknown. It is shown that under mild smoothness...

  20. Model selection for marginal regression analysis of longitudinal data with missing observations and covariate measurement error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Chung-Wei; Chen, Yi-Hau

    2015-10-01

    Missing observations and covariate measurement error commonly arise in longitudinal data. However, existing methods for model selection in marginal regression analysis of longitudinal data fail to address the potential bias resulting from these issues. To tackle this problem, we propose a new model selection criterion, the Generalized Longitudinal Information Criterion, which is based on an approximately unbiased estimator for the expected quadratic error of a considered marginal model accounting for both data missingness and covariate measurement error. The simulation results reveal that the proposed method performs quite well in the presence of missing data and covariate measurement error. On the contrary, the naive procedures without taking care of such complexity in data may perform quite poorly. The proposed method is applied to data from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging to assess the relationship of depression with health and social status in the elderly, accommodating measurement error in the covariate as well as missing observations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Ridge Regression and Other Kernels for Genomic Selection with R Package rrBLUP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey B. Endelman

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Many important traits in plant breeding are polygenic and therefore recalcitrant to traditional marker-assisted selection. Genomic selection addresses this complexity by including all markers in the prediction model. A key method for the genomic prediction of breeding values is ridge regression (RR, which is equivalent to best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP when the genetic covariance between lines is proportional to their similarity in genotype space. This additive model can be broadened to include epistatic effects by using other kernels, such as the Gaussian, which represent inner products in a complex feature space. To facilitate the use of RR and nonadditive kernels in plant breeding, a new software package for R called rrBLUP has been developed. At its core is a fast maximum-likelihood algorithm for mixed models with a single variance component besides the residual error, which allows for efficient prediction with unreplicated training data. Use of the rrBLUP software is demonstrated through several examples, including the identification of optimal crosses based on superior progeny value. In cross-validation tests, the prediction accuracy with nonadditive kernels was significantly higher than RR for wheat ( L. grain yield but equivalent for several maize ( L. traits.

  2. Relationship between rice yield and climate variables in southwest Nigeria using multiple linear regression and support vector machine analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oguntunde, Philip G.; Lischeid, Gunnar; Dietrich, Ottfried

    2018-03-01

    This study examines the variations of climate variables and rice yield and quantifies the relationships among them using multiple linear regression, principal component analysis, and support vector machine (SVM) analysis in southwest Nigeria. The climate and yield data used was for a period of 36 years between 1980 and 2015. Similar to the observed decrease ( P 1 and explained 83.1% of the total variance of predictor variables. The SVM regression function using the scores of the first principal component explained about 75% of the variance in rice yield data and linear regression about 64%. SVM regression between annual solar radiation values and yield explained 67% of the variance. Only the first component of the principal component analysis (PCA) exhibited a clear long-term trend and sometimes short-term variance similar to that of rice yield. Short-term fluctuations of the scores of the PC1 are closely coupled to those of rice yield during the 1986-1993 and the 2006-2013 periods thereby revealing the inter-annual sensitivity of rice production to climate variability. Solar radiation stands out as the climate variable of highest influence on rice yield, and the influence was especially strong during monsoon and post-monsoon periods, which correspond to the vegetative, booting, flowering, and grain filling stages in the study area. The outcome is expected to provide more in-depth regional-specific climate-rice linkage for screening of better cultivars that can positively respond to future climate fluctuations as well as providing information that may help optimized planting dates for improved radiation use efficiency in the study area.

  3. Relationship between rice yield and climate variables in southwest Nigeria using multiple linear regression and support vector machine analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oguntunde, Philip G; Lischeid, Gunnar; Dietrich, Ottfried

    2018-03-01

    This study examines the variations of climate variables and rice yield and quantifies the relationships among them using multiple linear regression, principal component analysis, and support vector machine (SVM) analysis in southwest Nigeria. The climate and yield data used was for a period of 36 years between 1980 and 2015. Similar to the observed decrease (P  1 and explained 83.1% of the total variance of predictor variables. The SVM regression function using the scores of the first principal component explained about 75% of the variance in rice yield data and linear regression about 64%. SVM regression between annual solar radiation values and yield explained 67% of the variance. Only the first component of the principal component analysis (PCA) exhibited a clear long-term trend and sometimes short-term variance similar to that of rice yield. Short-term fluctuations of the scores of the PC1 are closely coupled to those of rice yield during the 1986-1993 and the 2006-2013 periods thereby revealing the inter-annual sensitivity of rice production to climate variability. Solar radiation stands out as the climate variable of highest influence on rice yield, and the influence was especially strong during monsoon and post-monsoon periods, which correspond to the vegetative, booting, flowering, and grain filling stages in the study area. The outcome is expected to provide more in-depth regional-specific climate-rice linkage for screening of better cultivars that can positively respond to future climate fluctuations as well as providing information that may help optimized planting dates for improved radiation use efficiency in the study area.

  4. Regression models for categorical, count, and related variables an applied approach

    CERN Document Server

    Hoffmann, John P

    2016-01-01

    Social science and behavioral science students and researchers are often confronted with data that are categorical, count a phenomenon, or have been collected over time. Sociologists examining the likelihood of interracial marriage, political scientists studying voting behavior, criminologists counting the number of offenses people commit, health scientists studying the number of suicides across neighborhoods, and psychologists modeling mental health treatment success are all interested in outcomes that are not continuous. Instead, they must measure and analyze these events and phenomena in a discrete manner.   This book provides an introduction and overview of several statistical models designed for these types of outcomes--all presented with the assumption that the reader has only a good working knowledge of elementary algebra and has taken introductory statistics and linear regression analysis.   Numerous examples from the social sciences demonstrate the practical applications of these models. The chapte...

  5. A survey of variable selection methods in two Chinese epidemiology journals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lynn Henry S

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although much has been written on developing better procedures for variable selection, there is little research on how it is practiced in actual studies. This review surveys the variable selection methods reported in two high-ranking Chinese epidemiology journals. Methods Articles published in 2004, 2006, and 2008 in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology and the Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine were reviewed. Five categories of methods were identified whereby variables were selected using: A - bivariate analyses; B - multivariable analysis; e.g. stepwise or individual significance testing of model coefficients; C - first bivariate analyses, followed by multivariable analysis; D - bivariate analyses or multivariable analysis; and E - other criteria like prior knowledge or personal judgment. Results Among the 287 articles that reported using variable selection methods, 6%, 26%, 30%, 21%, and 17% were in categories A through E, respectively. One hundred sixty-three studies selected variables using bivariate analyses, 80% (130/163 via multiple significance testing at the 5% alpha-level. Of the 219 multivariable analyses, 97 (44% used stepwise procedures, 89 (41% tested individual regression coefficients, but 33 (15% did not mention how variables were selected. Sixty percent (58/97 of the stepwise routines also did not specify the algorithm and/or significance levels. Conclusions The variable selection methods reported in the two journals were limited in variety, and details were often missing. Many studies still relied on problematic techniques like stepwise procedures and/or multiple testing of bivariate associations at the 0.05 alpha-level. These deficiencies should be rectified to safeguard the scientific validity of articles published in Chinese epidemiology journals.

  6. ENSEMBLE VARIABILITY OF NEAR-INFRARED-SELECTED ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kouzuma, S.; Yamaoka, H.

    2012-01-01

    We present the properties of the ensemble variability V for nearly 5000 near-infrared active galactic nuclei (AGNs) selected from the catalog of Quasars and Active Galactic Nuclei (13th Edition) and the SDSS-DR7 quasar catalog. From three near-infrared point source catalogs, namely, Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS), Deep Near Infrared Survey (DENIS), and UKIDSS/LAS catalogs, we extract 2MASS-DENIS and 2MASS-UKIDSS counterparts for cataloged AGNs by cross-identification between catalogs. We further select variable AGNs based on an optimal criterion for selecting the variable sources. The sample objects are divided into subsets according to whether near-infrared light originates by optical emission or by near-infrared emission in the rest frame; and we examine the correlations of the ensemble variability with the rest-frame wavelength, redshift, luminosity, and rest-frame time lag. In addition, we also examine the correlations of variability amplitude with optical variability, radio intensity, and radio-to-optical flux ratio. The rest-frame optical variability of our samples shows negative correlations with luminosity and positive correlations with rest-frame time lag (i.e., the structure function, SF), and this result is consistent with previous analyses. However, no well-known negative correlation exists between the rest-frame wavelength and optical variability. This inconsistency might be due to a biased sampling of high-redshift AGNs. Near-infrared variability in the rest frame is anticorrelated with the rest-frame wavelength, which is consistent with previous suggestions. However, correlations of near-infrared variability with luminosity and rest-frame time lag are the opposite of these correlations of the optical variability; that is, the near-infrared variability is positively correlated with luminosity but negatively correlated with the rest-frame time lag. Because these trends are qualitatively consistent with the properties of radio-loud quasars reported

  7. Sensor combination and chemometric variable selection for online monitoring of Streptomyces coelicolor fed-batch cultivations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ödman, Peter; Johansen, C.L.; Olsson, L.

    2010-01-01

    of biomass and substrate (casamino acids) concentrations, respectively. The effect of combination of fluorescence and gas analyzer data as well as of different variable selection methods was investigated. Improved prediction models were obtained by combination of data from the two sensors and by variable......Fed-batch cultivations of Streptomyces coelicolor, producing the antibiotic actinorhodin, were monitored online by multiwavelength fluorescence spectroscopy and off-gas analysis. Partial least squares (PLS), locally weighted regression, and multilinear PLS (N-PLS) models were built for prediction...

  8. Reporting quality of multivariable logistic regression in selected Indian medical journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, R; Indrayan, A; Chhabra, P

    2012-01-01

    Use of multivariable logistic regression (MLR) modeling has steeply increased in the medical literature over the past few years. Testing of model assumptions and adequate reporting of MLR allow the reader to interpret results more accurately. To review the fulfillment of assumptions and reporting quality of MLR in selected Indian medical journals using established criteria. Analysis of published literature. Medknow.com publishes 68 Indian medical journals with open access. Eight of these journals had at least five articles using MLR between the years 1994 to 2008. Articles from each of these journals were evaluated according to the previously established 10-point quality criteria for reporting and to test the MLR model assumptions. SPSS 17 software and non-parametric test (Kruskal-Wallis H, Mann Whitney U, Spearman Correlation). One hundred and nine articles were finally found using MLR for analyzing the data in the selected eight journals. The number of such articles gradually increased after year 2003, but quality score remained almost similar over time. P value, odds ratio, and 95% confidence interval for coefficients in MLR was reported in 75.2% and sufficient cases (>10) per covariate of limiting sample size were reported in the 58.7% of the articles. No article reported the test for conformity of linear gradient for continuous covariates. Total score was not significantly different across the journals. However, involvement of statistician or epidemiologist as a co-author improved the average quality score significantly (P=0.014). Reporting of MLR in many Indian journals is incomplete. Only one article managed to score 8 out of 10 among 109 articles under review. All others scored less. Appropriate guidelines in instructions to authors, and pre-publication review of articles using MLR by a qualified statistician may improve quality of reporting.

  9. CHARACTERIZING THE OPTICAL VARIABILITY OF BRIGHT BLAZARS: VARIABILITY-BASED SELECTION OF FERMI ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruan, John J.; Anderson, Scott F.; MacLeod, Chelsea L.; Becker, Andrew C.; Davenport, James R. A.; Ivezić, Željko; Burnett, T. H.; Kochanek, Christopher S.; Plotkin, Richard M.; Sesar, Branimir; Stuart, J. Scott

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the use of optical photometric variability to select and identify blazars in large-scale time-domain surveys, in part to aid in the identification of blazar counterparts to the ∼30% of γ-ray sources in the Fermi 2FGL catalog still lacking reliable associations. Using data from the optical LINEAR asteroid survey, we characterize the optical variability of blazars by fitting a damped random walk model to individual light curves with two main model parameters, the characteristic timescales of variability τ, and driving amplitudes on short timescales σ-circumflex. Imposing cuts on minimum τ and σ-circumflex allows for blazar selection with high efficiency E and completeness C. To test the efficacy of this approach, we apply this method to optically variable LINEAR objects that fall within the several-arcminute error ellipses of γ-ray sources in the Fermi 2FGL catalog. Despite the extreme stellar contamination at the shallow depth of the LINEAR survey, we are able to recover previously associated optical counterparts to Fermi active galactic nuclei with E ≥ 88% and C = 88% in Fermi 95% confidence error ellipses having semimajor axis r < 8'. We find that the suggested radio counterpart to Fermi source 2FGL J1649.6+5238 has optical variability consistent with other γ-ray blazars and is likely to be the γ-ray source. Our results suggest that the variability of the non-thermal jet emission in blazars is stochastic in nature, with unique variability properties due to the effects of relativistic beaming. After correcting for beaming, we estimate that the characteristic timescale of blazar variability is ∼3 years in the rest frame of the jet, in contrast with the ∼320 day disk flux timescale observed in quasars. The variability-based selection method presented will be useful for blazar identification in time-domain optical surveys and is also a probe of jet physics.

  10. Genome-wide prediction of traits with different genetic architecture through efficient variable selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wimmer, Valentin; Lehermeier, Christina; Albrecht, Theresa; Auinger, Hans-Jürgen; Wang, Yu; Schön, Chris-Carolin

    2013-10-01

    In genome-based prediction there is considerable uncertainty about the statistical model and method required to maximize prediction accuracy. For traits influenced by a small number of quantitative trait loci (QTL), predictions are expected to benefit from methods performing variable selection [e.g., BayesB or the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)] compared to methods distributing effects across the genome [ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction (RR-BLUP)]. We investigate the assumptions underlying successful variable selection by combining computer simulations with large-scale experimental data sets from rice (Oryza sativa L.), wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), and Arabidopsis thaliana (L.). We demonstrate that variable selection can be successful when the number of phenotyped individuals is much larger than the number of causal mutations contributing to the trait. We show that the sample size required for efficient variable selection increases dramatically with decreasing trait heritabilities and increasing extent of linkage disequilibrium (LD). We contrast and discuss contradictory results from simulation and experimental studies with respect to superiority of variable selection methods over RR-BLUP. Our results demonstrate that due to long-range LD, medium heritabilities, and small sample sizes, superiority of variable selection methods cannot be expected in plant breeding populations even for traits like FRIGIDA gene expression in Arabidopsis and flowering time in rice, assumed to be influenced by a few major QTL. We extend our conclusions to the analysis of whole-genome sequence data and infer upper bounds for the number of causal mutations which can be identified by LASSO. Our results have major impact on the choice of statistical method needed to make credible inferences about genetic architecture and prediction accuracy of complex traits.

  11. Effects of environmental variables on invasive amphibian activity: Using model selection on quantiles for counts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Benjamin J.; Cade, Brian S.; Schwarzkoph, Lin

    2018-01-01

    Many different factors influence animal activity. Often, the value of an environmental variable may influence significantly the upper or lower tails of the activity distribution. For describing relationships with heterogeneous boundaries, quantile regressions predict a quantile of the conditional distribution of the dependent variable. A quantile count model extends linear quantile regression methods to discrete response variables, and is useful if activity is quantified by trapping, where there may be many tied (equal) values in the activity distribution, over a small range of discrete values. Additionally, different environmental variables in combination may have synergistic or antagonistic effects on activity, so examining their effects together, in a modeling framework, is a useful approach. Thus, model selection on quantile counts can be used to determine the relative importance of different variables in determining activity, across the entire distribution of capture results. We conducted model selection on quantile count models to describe the factors affecting activity (numbers of captures) of cane toads (Rhinella marina) in response to several environmental variables (humidity, temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and moon luminosity) over eleven months of trapping. Environmental effects on activity are understudied in this pest animal. In the dry season, model selection on quantile count models suggested that rainfall positively affected activity, especially near the lower tails of the activity distribution. In the wet season, wind speed limited activity near the maximum of the distribution, while minimum activity increased with minimum temperature. This statistical methodology allowed us to explore, in depth, how environmental factors influenced activity across the entire distribution, and is applicable to any survey or trapping regime, in which environmental variables affect activity.

  12. Portfolio Selection Based on Distance between Fuzzy Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiyi Qian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper researches portfolio selection problem in fuzzy environment. We introduce a new simple method in which the distance between fuzzy variables is used to measure the divergence of fuzzy investment return from a prior one. Firstly, two new mathematical models are proposed by expressing divergence as distance, investment return as expected value, and risk as variance and semivariance, respectively. Secondly, the crisp forms of the new models are also provided for different types of fuzzy variables. Finally, several numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  13. PARAMETRIC AND NON PARAMETRIC (MARS: MULTIVARIATE ADDITIVE REGRESSION SPLINES) LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS FOR PREDICTION OF A DICHOTOMOUS RESPONSE VARIABLE WITH AN EXAMPLE FOR PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF AMPHIBIANS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this report is to provide a reference manual that could be used by investigators for making informed use of logistic regression using two methods (standard logistic regression and MARS). The details for analyses of relationships between a dependent binary response ...

  14. Protein construct storage: Bayesian variable selection and prediction with mixtures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clyde, M A; Parmigiani, G

    1998-07-01

    Determining optimal conditions for protein storage while maintaining a high level of protein activity is an important question in pharmaceutical research. A designed experiment based on a space-filling design was conducted to understand the effects of factors affecting protein storage and to establish optimal storage conditions. Different model-selection strategies to identify important factors may lead to very different answers about optimal conditions. Uncertainty about which factors are important, or model uncertainty, can be a critical issue in decision-making. We use Bayesian variable selection methods for linear models to identify important variables in the protein storage data, while accounting for model uncertainty. We also use the Bayesian framework to build predictions based on a large family of models, rather than an individual model, and to evaluate the probability that certain candidate storage conditions are optimal.

  15. gamboostLSS: An R Package for Model Building and Variable Selection in the GAMLSS Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Hofner

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape are a flexible class of regression models that allow to model multiple parameters of a distribution function, such as the mean and the standard deviation, simultaneously. With the R package gamboostLSS, we provide a boosting method to fit these models. Variable selection and model choice are naturally available within this regularized regression framework. To introduce and illustrate the R package gamboostLSS and its infrastructure, we use a data set on stunted growth in India. In addition to the specification and application of the model itself, we present a variety of convenience functions, including methods for tuning parameter selection, prediction and visualization of results. The package gamboostLSS is available from the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN at https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=gamboostLSS.

  16. STEPWISE SELECTION OF VARIABLES IN DEA USING CONTRIBUTION LOADS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Fernandez-Palacin

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT In this paper, we propose a new methodology for variable selection in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA. The methodology is based on an internal measure which evaluates the contribution of each variable in the calculation of the efficiency scores of DMUs. In order to apply the proposed method, an algorithm, known as “ADEA”, was developed and implemented in R. Step by step, the algorithm maximizes the load of the variable (input or output which contribute least to the calculation of the efficiency scores, redistributing the weights of the variables without altering the efficiency scores of the DMUs. Once the weights have been redistributed, if the lower contribution does not reach a previously given critical value, a variable with minimum contribution will be removed from the model and, as a result, the DEA will be solved again. The algorithm will stop when all variables reach a given contribution load to the DEA or until no more variables can be removed. In this way and contrary to what is usual, the algorithm provides a clear stop rule. In both cases, the efficiencies obtained from the DEA will be considered suitable and rightly interpreted in terms of the remaining variables, indicating the load themselves; moreover, the algorithm will provide a sequence of alternative nested models - potential solutions - that could be evaluated according to external criterion. To illustrate the procedure, we have applied the methodology proposed to obtain a research ranking of Spanish public universities. In this case, at each step of the algorithm, the critical value is obtained based on a simulation study.

  17. A QSAR Study of Environmental Estrogens Based on a Novel Variable Selection Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aiqian Zhang

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available A large number of descriptors were employed to characterize the molecular structure of 53 natural, synthetic, and environmental chemicals which are suspected of disrupting endocrine functions by mimicking or antagonizing natural hormones and may thus pose a serious threat to the health of humans and wildlife. In this work, a robust quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR model with a novel variable selection method has been proposed for the effective estrogens. The variable selection method is based on variable interaction (VSMVI with leave-multiple-out cross validation (LMOCV to select the best subset. During variable selection, model construction and assessment, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD principles for regulation of QSAR acceptability were fully considered, such as using an unambiguous multiple-linear regression (MLR algorithm to build the model, using several validation methods to assessment the performance of the model, giving the define of applicability domain and analyzing the outliers with the results of molecular docking. The performance of the QSAR model indicates that the VSMVI is an effective, feasible and practical tool for rapid screening of the best subset from large molecular descriptors.

  18. Modeling temporal and spatial variability of traffic-related air pollution: Hourly land use regression models for black carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dons, Evi; Van Poppel, Martine; Kochan, Bruno; Wets, Geert; Int Panis, Luc

    2013-08-01

    Land use regression (LUR) modeling is a statistical technique used to determine exposure to air pollutants in epidemiological studies. Time-activity diaries can be combined with LUR models, enabling detailed exposure estimation and limiting exposure misclassification, both in shorter and longer time lags. In this study, the traffic related air pollutant black carbon was measured with μ-aethalometers on a 5-min time base at 63 locations in Flanders, Belgium. The measurements show that hourly concentrations vary between different locations, but also over the day. Furthermore the diurnal pattern is different for street and background locations. This suggests that annual LUR models are not sufficient to capture all the variation. Hourly LUR models for black carbon are developed using different strategies: by means of dummy variables, with dynamic dependent variables and/or with dynamic and static independent variables. The LUR model with 48 dummies (weekday hours and weekend hours) performs not as good as the annual model (explained variance of 0.44 compared to 0.77 in the annual model). The dataset with hourly concentrations of black carbon can be used to recalibrate the annual model, resulting in many of the original explaining variables losing their statistical significance, and certain variables having the wrong direction of effect. Building new independent hourly models, with static or dynamic covariates, is proposed as the best solution to solve these issues. R2 values for hourly LUR models are mostly smaller than the R2 of the annual model, ranging from 0.07 to 0.8. Between 6 a.m. and 10 p.m. on weekdays the R2 approximates the annual model R2. Even though models of consecutive hours are developed independently, similar variables turn out to be significant. Using dynamic covariates instead of static covariates, i.e. hourly traffic intensities and hourly population densities, did not significantly improve the models' performance.

  19. Characterizing the Optical Variability of Bright Blazars: Variability-based Selection of Fermi Active Galactic Nuclei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, John J.; Anderson, Scott F.; MacLeod, Chelsea L.; Becker, Andrew C.; Burnett, T. H.; Davenport, James R. A.; Ivezić, Željko; Kochanek, Christopher S.; Plotkin, Richard M.; Sesar, Branimir; Stuart, J. Scott

    2012-11-01

    We investigate the use of optical photometric variability to select and identify blazars in large-scale time-domain surveys, in part to aid in the identification of blazar counterparts to the ~30% of γ-ray sources in the Fermi 2FGL catalog still lacking reliable associations. Using data from the optical LINEAR asteroid survey, we characterize the optical variability of blazars by fitting a damped random walk model to individual light curves with two main model parameters, the characteristic timescales of variability τ, and driving amplitudes on short timescales \\hat{\\sigma }. Imposing cuts on minimum τ and \\hat{\\sigma } allows for blazar selection with high efficiency E and completeness C. To test the efficacy of this approach, we apply this method to optically variable LINEAR objects that fall within the several-arcminute error ellipses of γ-ray sources in the Fermi 2FGL catalog. Despite the extreme stellar contamination at the shallow depth of the LINEAR survey, we are able to recover previously associated optical counterparts to Fermi active galactic nuclei with E >= 88% and C = 88% in Fermi 95% confidence error ellipses having semimajor axis r beaming. After correcting for beaming, we estimate that the characteristic timescale of blazar variability is ~3 years in the rest frame of the jet, in contrast with the ~320 day disk flux timescale observed in quasars. The variability-based selection method presented will be useful for blazar identification in time-domain optical surveys and is also a probe of jet physics.

  20. A Simple K-Map Based Variable Selection Scheme in the Direct ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A multiplexer with (n-l) data select inputs can realise directly a function of n variables. In this paper, a simple k-map based variable selection scheme is proposed such that an n variable logic function can be synthesised using a multiplexer with (n-q) data input variables and q data select variables. The procedure is based on ...

  1. Isoenzymatic variability in tropical maize populations under reciprocal recurrent selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pinto Luciana Rossini

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Maize (Zea mays L. is one of the crops in which the genetic variability has been extensively studied at isoenzymatic loci. The genetic variability of the maize populations BR-105 and BR-106, and the synthetics IG-3 and IG-4, obtained after one cycle of a high-intensity reciprocal recurrent selection (RRS, was investigated at seven isoenzymatic loci. A total of twenty alleles were identified, and most of the private alleles were found in the BR-106 population. One cycle of reciprocal recurrent selection (RRS caused reductions of 12% in the number of alleles in both populations. Changes in allele frequencies were also observed between populations and synthetics, mainly for the Est 2 locus. Populations presented similar values for the number of alleles per locus, percentage of polymorphic loci, and observed and expected heterozygosities. A decrease of the genetic variation values was observed for the synthetics as a consequence of genetic drift effects and reduction of the effective population sizes. The distribution of the genetic diversity within and between populations revealed that most of the diversity was maintained within them, i.e. BR-105 x BR-106 (G ST = 3.5% and IG-3 x IG-4 (G ST = 4.0%. The genetic distances between populations and synthetics increased approximately 21%. An increase in the genetic divergence between the populations occurred without limiting new selection procedures.

  2. Land use regression modeling of intra-urban residential variability in multiple traffic-related air pollutants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baxter Lisa K

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a growing body of literature linking GIS-based measures of traffic density to asthma and other respiratory outcomes. However, no consensus exists on which traffic indicators best capture variability in different pollutants or within different settings. As part of a study on childhood asthma etiology, we examined variability in outdoor concentrations of multiple traffic-related air pollutants within urban communities, using a range of GIS-based predictors and land use regression techniques. Methods We measured fine particulate matter (PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide (NO2, and elemental carbon (EC outside 44 homes representing a range of traffic densities and neighborhoods across Boston, Massachusetts and nearby communities. Multiple three to four-day average samples were collected at each home during winters and summers from 2003 to 2005. Traffic indicators were derived using Massachusetts Highway Department data and direct traffic counts. Multivariate regression analyses were performed separately for each pollutant, using traffic indicators, land use, meteorology, site characteristics, and central site concentrations. Results PM2.5 was strongly associated with the central site monitor (R2 = 0.68. Additional variability was explained by total roadway length within 100 m of the home, smoking or grilling near the monitor, and block-group population density (R2 = 0.76. EC showed greater spatial variability, especially during winter months, and was predicted by roadway length within 200 m of the home. The influence of traffic was greater under low wind speed conditions, and concentrations were lower during summer (R2 = 0.52. NO2 showed significant spatial variability, predicted by population density and roadway length within 50 m of the home, modified by site characteristics (obstruction, and with higher concentrations during summer (R2 = 0.56. Conclusion Each pollutant examined displayed somewhat different spatial patterns

  3. Chaotic Dynamical State Variables Selection Procedure Based Image Encryption Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zia Bashir

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, in the modern digital era, the use of computer technologies such as smartphones, tablets and the Internet, as well as the enormous quantity of confidential information being converted into digital form have resulted in raised security issues. This, in turn, has led to rapid developments in cryptography, due to the imminent need for system security. Low-dimensional chaotic systems have low complexity and key space, yet they achieve high encryption speed. An image encryption scheme is proposed that, without compromising the security, uses reasonable resources. We introduced a chaotic dynamic state variables selection procedure (CDSVSP to use all state variables of a hyper-chaotic four-dimensional dynamical system. As a result, less iterations of the dynamical system are required, and resources are saved, thus making the algorithm fast and suitable for practical use. The simulation results of security and other miscellaneous tests demonstrate that the suggested algorithm excels at robustness, security and high speed encryption.

  4. Estimation and variable selection for generalized additive partial linear models

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Li

    2011-08-01

    We study generalized additive partial linear models, proposing the use of polynomial spline smoothing for estimation of nonparametric functions, and deriving quasi-likelihood based estimators for the linear parameters. We establish asymptotic normality for the estimators of the parametric components. The procedure avoids solving large systems of equations as in kernel-based procedures and thus results in gains in computational simplicity. We further develop a class of variable selection procedures for the linear parameters by employing a nonconcave penalized quasi-likelihood, which is shown to have an asymptotic oracle property. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical example are presented for illustration. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2011.

  5. Bayesian Bandwidth Selection for a Nonparametric Regression Model with Mixed Types of Regressors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xibin Zhang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a sampling algorithm for bandwidth estimation in a nonparametric regression model with continuous and discrete regressors under an unknown error density. The error density is approximated by the kernel density estimator of the unobserved errors, while the regression function is estimated using the Nadaraya-Watson estimator admitting continuous and discrete regressors. We derive an approximate likelihood and posterior for bandwidth parameters, followed by a sampling algorithm. Simulation results show that the proposed approach typically leads to better accuracy of the resulting estimates than cross-validation, particularly for smaller sample sizes. This bandwidth estimation approach is applied to nonparametric regression model of the Australian All Ordinaries returns and the kernel density estimation of gross domestic product (GDP growth rates among the organisation for economic co-operation and development (OECD and non-OECD countries.

  6. Multiple linear regression analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, T. R.

    1980-01-01

    Program rapidly selects best-suited set of coefficients. User supplies only vectors of independent and dependent data and specifies confidence level required. Program uses stepwise statistical procedure for relating minimal set of variables to set of observations; final regression contains only most statistically significant coefficients. Program is written in FORTRAN IV for batch execution and has been implemented on NOVA 1200.

  7. Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Laura A.; Benscoter, Allison; Harvey, Rebecca G.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate envelope models are widely used to describe potential future distribution of species under different climate change scenarios. It is broadly recognized that there are both strengths and limitations to using climate envelope models and that outcomes are sensitive to initial assumptions, inputs, and modeling methods Selection of predictor variables, a central step in modeling, is one of the areas where different techniques can yield varying results. Selection of climate variables to use as predictors is often done using statistical approaches that develop correlations between occurrences and climate data. These approaches have received criticism in that they rely on the statistical properties of the data rather than directly incorporating biological information about species responses to temperature and precipitation. We evaluated and compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida based on two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance between these two approaches for contemporary predictions, and the spatial correlation, spatial overlap and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions. In general, experts identified more variables as being important than the statistical method and there was low overlap in the variable sets (0.9 for area under the curve (AUC) and >0.7 for true skill statistic (TSS). Spatial overlap, which compares the spatial configuration between maps constructed using the different variable selection techniques, was only moderate overall (about 60%), with a great deal of variability across species. Difference in spatial overlap was even greater under future climate projections, indicating additional divergence of model outputs from different variable selection techniques. Our work is in agreement with other studies which have found that for broad-scale species distribution modeling, using statistical methods of variable

  8. Selection for altruism through random drift in variable size populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Houchmandzadeh Bahram

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Altruistic behavior is defined as helping others at a cost to oneself and a lowered fitness. The lower fitness implies that altruists should be selected against, which is in contradiction with their widespread presence is nature. Present models of selection for altruism (kin or multilevel show that altruistic behaviors can have ‘hidden’ advantages if the ‘common good’ produced by altruists is restricted to some related or unrelated groups. These models are mostly deterministic, or assume a frequency dependent fitness. Results Evolutionary dynamics is a competition between deterministic selection pressure and stochastic events due to random sampling from one generation to the next. We show here that an altruistic allele extending the carrying capacity of the habitat can win by increasing the random drift of “selfish” alleles. In other terms, the fixation probability of altruistic genes can be higher than those of a selfish ones, even though altruists have a smaller fitness. Moreover when populations are geographically structured, the altruists advantage can be highly amplified and the fixation probability of selfish genes can tend toward zero. The above results are obtained both by numerical and analytical calculations. Analytical results are obtained in the limit of large populations. Conclusions The theory we present does not involve kin or multilevel selection, but is based on the existence of random drift in variable size populations. The model is a generalization of the original Fisher-Wright and Moran models where the carrying capacity depends on the number of altruists.

  9. A Study in Public School Accountability Through the Application of Multiple Regression to Selected Variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Harold Reesor

    The purpose of the study was to develop and evaluate a method of determining the effectiveness of individual schools in promoting student achievement in reading and arithmetic, and to investigate the relationship of sibling order and of residence in intact or broken homes on student achievement. Five hundred sixty-three sixth graders from 16…

  10. Novel Automatic Filter-Class Feature Selection for Machine Learning Regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wollsen, Morten Gill; Hallam, John; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2017-01-01

    With the increased focus on application of Big Data in all sectors of society, the performance of machine learning becomes essential. Efficient machine learning depends on efficient feature selection algorithms. Filter feature selection algorithms are model-free and therefore very fast, but require...... model in the feature selection process. PCA is often used in machine learning litterature and can be considered the default feature selection method. RDESF outperformed PCA in both experiments in both prediction error and computational speed. RDESF is a new step into filter-based automatic feature...

  11. Dynamic and Regression Modeling of Ocean Variability in the Tide-Gauge Record at Seasonal and Longer Periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Emma M.; Ponte, Rui M.; Davis, James L.

    2007-01-01

    Comparison of monthly mean tide-gauge time series to corresponding model time series based on a static inverted barometer (IB) for pressure-driven fluctuations and a ocean general circulation model (OM) reveals that the combined model successfully reproduces seasonal and interannual changes in relative sea level at many stations. Removal of the OM and IB from the tide-gauge record produces residual time series with a mean global variance reduction of 53%. The OM is mis-scaled for certain regions, and 68% of the residual time series contain a significant seasonal variability after removal of the OM and IB from the tide-gauge data. Including OM admittance parameters and seasonal coefficients in a regression model for each station, with IB also removed, produces residual time series with mean global variance reduction of 71%. Examination of the regional improvement in variance caused by scaling the OM, including seasonal terms, or both, indicates weakness in the model at predicting sea-level variation for constricted ocean regions. The model is particularly effective at reproducing sea-level variation for stations in North America, Europe, and Japan. The RMS residual for many stations in these areas is 25-35 mm. The production of "cleaner" tide-gauge time series, with oceanographic variability removed, is important for future analysis of nonsecular and regionally differing sea-level variations. Understanding the ocean model's strengths and weaknesses will allow for future improvements of the model.

  12. To resuscitate or not to resuscitate: a logistic regression analysis of physician-related variables influencing the decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einav, Sharon; Alon, Gady; Kaufman, Nechama; Braunstein, Rony; Carmel, Sara; Varon, Joseph; Hersch, Moshe

    2012-09-01

    To determine whether variables in physicians' backgrounds influenced their decision to forego resuscitating a patient they did not previously know. Questionnaire survey of a convenience sample of 204 physicians working in the departments of internal medicine, anaesthesiology and cardiology in 11 hospitals in Israel. Twenty per cent of the participants had elected to forego resuscitating a patient they did not previously know without additional consultation. Physicians who had more frequently elected to forego resuscitation had practised medicine for more than 5 years (p=0.013), estimated the number of resuscitations they had performed as being higher (p=0.009), and perceived their experience in resuscitation as sufficient (p=0.001). The variable that predicted the outcome of always performing resuscitation in the logistic regression model was less than 5 years of experience in medicine (OR 0.227, 95% CI 0.065 to 0.793; p=0.02). Physicians' level of experience may affect the probability of a patient's receiving resuscitation, whereas the physicians' personal beliefs and values did not seem to affect this outcome.

  13. Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortensen, Eric; Wu, Shu; Notaro, Michael; Vavrus, Stephen; Montgomery, Rob; De Piérola, José; Sánchez, Carlos; Block, Paul

    2018-01-01

    Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semiarid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal meteorological drought. Meteorological droughts in this region are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region's hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead precipitation prediction model is developed to help bolster the existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate deleterious impacts of drought. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to 11 potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of regional January-March precipitation totals. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit-miss statistic. The information provided by the developed model and ancillary modeling efforts, such as extending the lead time of and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level as well as forecasting the number of wet-dry days per rainy season, may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers in preparing for drought.

  14. Capacitance Regression Modelling Analysis on Latex from Selected Rubber Tree Clones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosli, A D; Baharudin, R; Hashim, H; Khairuzzaman, N A; Mohd Sampian, A F; Abdullah, N E; Kamaru'zzaman, M; Sulaiman, M S

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the capacitance regression modelling performance of latex for various rubber tree clones, namely clone 2002, 2008, 2014 and 3001. Conventionally, the rubber tree clones identification are based on observation towards tree features such as shape of leaf, trunk, branching habit and pattern of seeds texture. The former method requires expert persons and very time-consuming. Currently, there is no sensing device based on electrical properties that can be employed to measure different clones from latex samples. Hence, with a hypothesis that the dielectric constant of each clone varies, this paper discusses the development of a capacitance sensor via Capacitance Comparison Bridge (known as capacitance sensor) to measure an output voltage of different latex samples. The proposed sensor is initially tested with 30ml of latex sample prior to gradually addition of dilution water. The output voltage and capacitance obtained from the test are recorded and analyzed using Simple Linear Regression (SLR) model. This work outcome infers that latex clone of 2002 has produced the highest and reliable linear regression line with determination coefficient of 91.24%. In addition, the study also found that the capacitive elements in latex samples deteriorate if it is diluted with higher volume of water. (paper)

  15. A comparison on parameter-estimation methods in multiple regression analysis with existence of multicollinearity among independent variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hukharnsusatrue, A.

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to compare multiple regression coefficients estimating methods with existence of multicollinearity among independent variables. The estimation methods are Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS, Restricted Least Squares method (RLS, Restricted Ridge Regression method (RRR and Restricted Liu method (RL when restrictions are true and restrictions are not true. The study used the Monte Carlo Simulation method. The experiment was repeated 1,000 times under each situation. The analyzed results of the data are demonstrated as follows. CASE 1: The restrictions are true. In all cases, RRR and RL methods have a smaller Average Mean Square Error (AMSE than OLS and RLS method, respectively. RRR method provides the smallest AMSE when the level of correlations is high and also provides the smallest AMSE for all level of correlations and all sample sizes when standard deviation is equal to 5. However, RL method provides the smallest AMSE when the level of correlations is low and middle, except in the case of standard deviation equal to 3, small sample sizes, RRR method provides the smallest AMSE.The AMSE varies with, most to least, respectively, level of correlations, standard deviation and number of independent variables but inversely with to sample size.CASE 2: The restrictions are not true.In all cases, RRR method provides the smallest AMSE, except in the case of standard deviation equal to 1 and error of restrictions equal to 5%, OLS method provides the smallest AMSE when the level of correlations is low or median and there is a large sample size, but the small sample sizes, RL method provides the smallest AMSE. In addition, when error of restrictions is increased, OLS method provides the smallest AMSE for all level, of correlations and all sample sizes, except when the level of correlations is high and sample sizes small. Moreover, the case OLS method provides the smallest AMSE, the most RLS method has a smaller AMSE than

  16. Boosted beta regression.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Schmid

    Full Text Available Regression analysis with a bounded outcome is a common problem in applied statistics. Typical examples include regression models for percentage outcomes and the analysis of ratings that are measured on a bounded scale. In this paper, we consider beta regression, which is a generalization of logit models to situations where the response is continuous on the interval (0,1. Consequently, beta regression is a convenient tool for analyzing percentage responses. The classical approach to fit a beta regression model is to use maximum likelihood estimation with subsequent AIC-based variable selection. As an alternative to this established - yet unstable - approach, we propose a new estimation technique called boosted beta regression. With boosted beta regression estimation and variable selection can be carried out simultaneously in a highly efficient way. Additionally, both the mean and the variance of a percentage response can be modeled using flexible nonlinear covariate effects. As a consequence, the new method accounts for common problems such as overdispersion and non-binomial variance structures.

  17. Variable selection based near infrared spectroscopy quantitative and qualitative analysis on wheat wet gluten

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lü, Chengxu; Jiang, Xunpeng; Zhou, Xingfan; Zhang, Yinqiao; Zhang, Naiqian; Wei, Chongfeng; Mao, Wenhua

    2017-10-01

    Wet gluten is a useful quality indicator for wheat, and short wave near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is a high performance technique with the advantage of economic rapid and nondestructive test. To study the feasibility of short wave NIRS analyzing wet gluten directly from wheat seed, 54 representative wheat seed samples were collected and scanned by spectrometer. 8 spectral pretreatment method and genetic algorithm (GA) variable selection method were used to optimize analysis. Both quantitative and qualitative model of wet gluten were built by partial least squares regression and discriminate analysis. For quantitative analysis, normalization is the optimized pretreatment method, 17 wet gluten sensitive variables are selected by GA, and GA model performs a better result than that of all variable model, with R2V=0.88, and RMSEV=1.47. For qualitative analysis, automatic weighted least squares baseline is the optimized pretreatment method, all variable models perform better results than those of GA models. The correct classification rates of 3 class of 30% wet gluten content are 95.45, 84.52, and 90.00%, respectively. The short wave NIRS technique shows potential for both quantitative and qualitative analysis of wet gluten for wheat seed.

  18. A modification of the successive projections algorithm for spectral variable selection in the presence of unknown interferents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Sófacles Figueredo Carreiro; Galvão, Roberto Kawakami Harrop; Araújo, Mário César Ugulino; da Silva, Edvan Cirino; Pereira, Claudete Fernandes; de Andrade, Stéfani Iury Evangelista; Leite, Flaviano Carvalho

    2011-03-09

    This work proposes a modification to the successive projections algorithm (SPA) aimed at selecting spectral variables for multiple linear regression (MLR) in the presence of unknown interferents not included in the calibration data set. The modified algorithm favours the selection of variables in which the effect of the interferent is less pronounced. The proposed procedure can be regarded as an adaptive modelling technique, because the spectral features of the samples to be analyzed are considered in the variable selection process. The advantages of this new approach are demonstrated in two analytical problems, namely (1) ultraviolet-visible spectrometric determination of tartrazine, allure red and sunset yellow in aqueous solutions under the interference of erythrosine, and (2) near-infrared spectrometric determination of ethanol in gasoline under the interference of toluene. In these case studies, the performance of conventional MLR-SPA models is substantially degraded by the presence of the interferent. This problem is circumvented by applying the proposed Adaptive MLR-SPA approach, which results in prediction errors smaller than those obtained by three other multivariate calibration techniques, namely stepwise regression, full-spectrum partial-least-squares (PLS) and PLS with variables selected by a genetic algorithm. An inspection of the variable selection results reveals that the Adaptive approach successfully avoids spectral regions in which the interference is more intense. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Construction of multiple linear regression models using blood biomarkers for selecting against abdominal fat traits in broilers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, J Q; Zhang, X Y; Wang, S Z; Jiang, X F; Zhang, K; Ma, G W; Wu, M Q; Li, H; Zhang, H

    2018-01-01

    Plasma very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) can be used to select for low body fat or abdominal fat (AF) in broilers, but its correlation with AF is limited. We investigated whether any other biochemical indicator can be used in combination with VLDL for a better selective effect. Nineteen plasma biochemical indicators were measured in male chickens from the Northeast Agricultural University broiler lines divergently selected for AF content (NEAUHLF) in the fed state at 46 and 48 d of age. The average concentration of every parameter for the 2 d was used for statistical analysis. Levels of these 19 plasma biochemical parameters were compared between the lean and fat lines. The phenotypic correlations between these plasma biochemical indicators and AF traits were analyzed. Then, multiple linear regression models were constructed to select the best model used for selecting against AF content. and the heritabilities of plasma indicators contained in the best models were estimated. The results showed that 11 plasma biochemical indicators (triglycerides, total bile acid, total protein, globulin, albumin/globulin, aspartate transaminase, alanine transaminase, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, uric acid, creatinine, and VLDL) differed significantly between the lean and fat lines (P linear regression models based on albumin/globulin, VLDL, triglycerides, globulin, total bile acid, and uric acid, had higher R2 (0.73) than the model based only on VLDL (0.21). The plasma parameters included in the best models had moderate heritability estimates (0.21 ≤ h2 ≤ 0.43). These results indicate that these multiple linear regression models can be used to select for lean broiler chickens. © 2017 Poultry Science Association Inc.

  20. Modelos de regresión para variables expresadas como una proporción continua Regression models for variables expressed as a continuous proportion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aarón Salinas-Rodríguez

    2006-10-01

    the Public Health field. MATERIAL AND METHODS: From the National Reproductive Health Survey performed in 2003, the proportion of individual coverage in the family planning program -proposed in one study carried out in the National Institute of Public Health in Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico (2005- was modeled using the Normal, Gamma, Beta and quasi-likelihood regression models. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC proposed by McQuarrie and Tsai was used to define the best model. Then, using a simulation (Monte Carlo/Markov Chains approach a variable with a Beta distribution was generated to evaluate the behavior of the 4 models while varying the sample size from 100 to 18 000 observations. RESULTS: Results showed that the best statistical option for the analysis of continuous proportions was the Beta regression model, since its assumptions are easily accomplished and because it had the lowest AIC value. Simulation evidenced that while the sample size increases the Gamma, and even more so the quasi-likelihood, models come significantly close to the Beta regression model. CONCLUSIONS: The use of parametric Beta regression is highly recommended to model continuous proportions and the normal model should be avoided. If the sample size is large enough, the use of quasi-likelihood model represents a good alternative.

  1. Ethnic variability in adiposity and cardiovascular risk: the variable disease selection hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Jonathan C K

    2009-02-01

    Evidence increasingly suggests that ethnic differences in cardiovascular risk are partly mediated by adipose tissue biology, which refers to the regional distribution of adipose tissue and its differential metabolic activity. This paper proposes a novel evolutionary hypothesis for ethnic genetic variability in adipose tissue biology. Whereas medical interest focuses on the harmful effect of excess fat, the value of adipose tissue is greatest during chronic energy insufficiency. Following Neel's influential paper on the thrifty genotype, proposed to have been favoured by exposure to cycles of feast and famine, much effort has been devoted to searching for genetic markers of 'thrifty metabolism'. However, whether famine-induced starvation was the primary selective pressure on adipose tissue biology has been questioned, while the notion that fat primarily represents a buffer against starvation appears inconsistent with historical records of mortality during famines. This paper reviews evidence for the role played by adipose tissue in immune function and proposes that adipose tissue biology responds to selective pressures acting through infectious disease. Different diseases activate the immune system in different ways and induce different metabolic costs. It is hypothesized that exposure to different infectious disease burdens has favoured ethnic genetic variability in the anatomical location of, and metabolic profile of, adipose tissue depots.

  2. Applying Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator and Akaike Information Criterion Analysis to Find the Best Multiple Linear Regression Models between Climate Indices and Components of Cow's Milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marami Milani, Mohammad Reza; Hense, Andreas; Rahmani, Elham; Ploeger, Angelika

    2016-07-23

    This study focuses on multiple linear regression models relating six climate indices (temperature humidity THI, environmental stress ESI, equivalent temperature index ETI, heat load HLI, modified HLI (HLI new ), and respiratory rate predictor RRP) with three main components of cow's milk (yield, fat, and protein) for cows in Iran. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Uncertainty estimation is employed by applying bootstrapping through resampling. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Climatic parameters are calculated from the NASA-MERRA global atmospheric reanalysis. Milk data for the months from April to September, 2002 to 2010 are used. The best linear regression models are found in spring between milk yield as the predictand and THI, ESI, ETI, HLI, and RRP as predictors with p -value < 0.001 and R ² (0.50, 0.49) respectively. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI, and ESI show the highest relation ( p -value < 0.001) with R ² (0.69). For fat and protein the results are only marginal. This method is suggested for the impact studies of climate variability/change on agriculture and food science fields when short-time series or data with large uncertainty are available.

  3. Stochastic variability in stress, sleep duration, and sleep quality across the distribution of body mass index: insights from quantile regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tse-Chuan; Matthews, Stephen A; Chen, Vivian Y-J

    2014-04-01

    Obesity has become a problem in the USA and identifying modifiable factors at the individual level may help to address this public health concern. A burgeoning literature has suggested that sleep and stress may be associated with obesity; however, little is know about whether these two factors moderate each other and even less is known about whether their impacts on obesity differ by gender. This study investigates whether sleep and stress are associated with body mass index (BMI) respectively, explores whether the combination of stress and sleep is also related to BMI, and demonstrates how these associations vary across the distribution of BMI values. We analyze the data from 3,318 men and 6,689 women in the Philadelphia area using quantile regression (QR) to evaluate the relationships between sleep, stress, and obesity by gender. Our substantive findings include: (1) high and/or extreme stress were related to roughly an increase of 1.2 in BMI after accounting for other covariates; (2) the pathways linking sleep and BMI differed by gender, with BMI for men increasing by 0.77-1 units with reduced sleep duration and BMI for women declining by 0.12 unit with 1 unit increase in sleep quality; (3) stress- and sleep-related variables were confounded, but there was little evidence for moderation between these two; (4) the QR results demonstrate that the association between high and/or extreme stress to BMI varied stochastically across the distribution of BMI values, with an upward trend, suggesting that stress played a more important role among adults with higher BMI (i.e., BMI > 26 for both genders); and (5) the QR plots of sleep-related variables show similar patterns, with stronger effects on BMI at the upper end of BMI distribution. Our findings suggested that sleep and stress were two seemingly independent predictors for BMI and their relationships with BMI were not constant across the BMI distribution.

  4. A comparison of logistic regression analysis and an artificial neural network using the BI-RADS lexicon for ultrasonography in conjunction with introbserver variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sun Mi; Han, Heon; Park, Jeong Mi; Choi, Yoon Jung; Yoon, Hoi Soo; Sohn, Jung Hee; Baek, Moon Hee; Kim, Yoon Nam; Chae, Young Moon; June, Jeon Jong; Lee, Jiwon; Jeon, Yong Hwan

    2012-10-01

    To determine which Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) descriptors for ultrasound are predictors for breast cancer using logistic regression (LR) analysis in conjunction with interobserver variability between breast radiologists, and to compare the performance of artificial neural network (ANN) and LR models in differentiation of benign and malignant breast masses. Five breast radiologists retrospectively reviewed 140 breast masses and described each lesion using BI-RADS lexicon and categorized final assessments. Interobserver agreements between the observers were measured by kappa statistics. The radiologists' responses for BI-RADS were pooled. The data were divided randomly into train (n = 70) and test sets (n = 70). Using train set, optimal independent variables were determined by using LR analysis with forward stepwise selection. The LR and ANN models were constructed with the optimal independent variables and the biopsy results as dependent variable. Performances of the models and radiologists were evaluated on the test set using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Among BI-RADS descriptors, margin and boundary were determined as the predictors according to stepwise LR showing moderate interobserver agreement. Area under the ROC curves (AUC) for both of LR and ANN were 0.87 (95% CI, 0.77-0.94). AUCs for the five radiologists ranged 0.79-0.91. There was no significant difference in AUC values among the LR, ANN, and radiologists (p > 0.05). Margin and boundary were found as statistically significant predictors with good interobserver agreement. Use of the LR and ANN showed similar performance to that of the radiologists for differentiation of benign and malignant breast masses.

  5. Determination of Selection Index of Cocoa (Theobroma Cacao L.) Yield Traits Using Regression Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Setyawan, Bayu; Taryono; Mitrowihardjo, Suyadi

    2016-01-01

    The increasing chocolate consumption has not been followed by growing production of dry cocoa beans. In order to support the increase in cocoa production, planting materials with high yield are needed. The objective of this research was to determine the components of cocoa traits affecting weight of dry cocoa beans, and set a selection index for superior cocoa trees. The experiment material were four cocoa hybrid populations of which their family ancestry were unknown, and were planted on Sam...

  6. Multilevel regularized regression for simultaneous taxa selection and network construction with metagenomic count data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhenqiu; Sun, Fengzhu; Braun, Jonathan; McGovern, Dermot P B; Piantadosi, Steven

    2015-04-01

    Identifying disease associated taxa and constructing networks for bacteria interactions are two important tasks usually studied separately. In reality, differentiation of disease associated taxa and correlation among taxa may affect each other. One genus can be differentiated because it is highly correlated with another highly differentiated one. In addition, network structures may vary under different clinical conditions. Permutation tests are commonly used to detect differences between networks in distinct phenotypes, and they are time-consuming. In this manuscript, we propose a multilevel regularized regression method to simultaneously identify taxa and construct networks. We also extend the framework to allow construction of a common network and differentiated network together. An efficient algorithm with dual formulation is developed to deal with the large-scale n ≪ m problem with a large number of taxa (m) and a small number of samples (n) efficiently. The proposed method is regularized with a general Lp (p ∈ [0, 2]) penalty and models the effects of taxa abundance differentiation and correlation jointly. We demonstrate that it can identify both true and biologically significant genera and network structures. Software MLRR in MATLAB is available at http://biostatistics.csmc.edu/mlrr/. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Testing Environmental Kuznets Curve in the Selected Transition Economies with Panel Smooth Transition Regression Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmut Zortuk

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC introduces an inverted U-shaped relationship between environmental pollution and economic development. The inverted U-shaped curve is seen as complete pattern for developed economies. However, our study tests the EKC for developing transition economies of European Union, therefore, our results could make a significant contribution to the literature. In this paper, the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2 emissions, gross domestic product (GDP, energy use and urban population is investigated in the Transition Economies (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Environmental Kuznets Curve is tested by panel smooth transition regression for these economies for 1993 – 2010 periods. As a result of study, the null hypothesis of linearity was rejected and no-remaining nonlinearity test showed that there is a smooth transition exists between two regimes (below $5176 GDP per capita is first one and above $5176 GDP per capita is second one in the related period for these economies.

  8. Sex-specific selection for MHC variability in Alpine chamois

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schaschl Helmut

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In mammals, males typically have shorter lives than females. This difference is thought to be due to behavioural traits which enhance competitive abilities, and hence male reproductive success, but impair survival. Furthermore, in many species males usually show higher parasite burden than females. Consequently, the intensity of selection for genetic factors which reduce susceptibility to pathogens may differ between sexes. High variability at the major histocompatibility complex (MHC genes is believed to be advantageous for detecting and combating the range of infectious agents present in the environment. Increased heterozygosity at these immune genes is expected to be important for individual longevity. However, whether males in natural populations benefit more from MHC heterozygosity than females has rarely been investigated. We investigated this question in a long-term study of free-living Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra, a polygynous mountain ungulate. Results Here we show that male chamois survive significantly (P = 0.022 longer if heterozygous at the MHC class II DRB locus, whereas females do not. Improved survival of males was not a result of heterozygote advantage per se, as background heterozygosity (estimated across twelve microsatellite loci did not change significantly with age. Furthermore, reproductively active males depleted their body fat reserves earlier than females leading to significantly impaired survival rates in this sex (P Conclusions Increased MHC class II DRB heterozygosity with age in males, suggests that MHC heterozygous males survive longer than homozygotes. Reproductively active males appear to be less likely to survive than females most likely because of the energetic challenge of the winter rut, accompanied by earlier depletion of their body fat stores, and a generally higher parasite burden. This scenario renders the MHC-mediated immune response more important for males than for females

  9. Bayesian nonparametric variable selection as an exploratory tool for discovering differentially expressed genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahbaba, Babak; Johnson, Wesley O

    2013-05-30

    High-throughput scientific studies involving no clear a priori hypothesis are common. For example, a large-scale genomic study of a disease may examine thousands of genes without hypothesizing that any specific gene is responsible for the disease. In these studies, the objective is to explore a large number of possible factors (e.g., genes) in order to identify a small number that will be considered in follow-up studies that tend to be more thorough and on smaller scales. A simple, hierarchical, linear regression model with random coefficients is assumed for case-control data that correspond to each gene. The specific model used will be seen to be related to a standard Bayesian variable selection model. Relatively large regression coefficients correspond to potential differences in responses for cases versus controls and thus to genes that might 'matter'. For large-scale studies, and using a Dirichlet process mixture model for the regression coefficients, we are able to find clusters of regression effects of genes with increasing potential effect or 'relevance', in relation to the outcome of interest. One cluster will always correspond to genes whose coefficients are in a neighborhood that is relatively close to zero and will be deemed least relevant. Other clusters will correspond to increasing magnitudes of the random/latent regression coefficients. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that our approach could be quite effective in finding relevant genes compared with several alternative methods. We apply our model to two large-scale studies. The first study involves transcriptome analysis of infection by human cytomegalovirus. The second study's objective is to identify differentially expressed genes between two types of leukemia. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Ultrahigh-dimensional variable selection method for whole-genome gene-gene interaction analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ueki Masao

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genome-wide gene-gene interaction analysis using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs is an attractive way for identification of genetic components that confers susceptibility of human complex diseases. Individual hypothesis testing for SNP-SNP pairs as in common genome-wide association study (GWAS however involves difficulty in setting overall p-value due to complicated correlation structure, namely, the multiple testing problem that causes unacceptable false negative results. A large number of SNP-SNP pairs than sample size, so-called the large p small n problem, precludes simultaneous analysis using multiple regression. The method that overcomes above issues is thus needed. Results We adopt an up-to-date method for ultrahigh-dimensional variable selection termed the sure independence screening (SIS for appropriate handling of numerous number of SNP-SNP interactions by including them as predictor variables in logistic regression. We propose ranking strategy using promising dummy coding methods and following variable selection procedure in the SIS method suitably modified for gene-gene interaction analysis. We also implemented the procedures in a software program, EPISIS, using the cost-effective GPGPU (General-purpose computing on graphics processing units technology. EPISIS can complete exhaustive search for SNP-SNP interactions in standard GWAS dataset within several hours. The proposed method works successfully in simulation experiments and in application to real WTCCC (Wellcome Trust Case–control Consortium data. Conclusions Based on the machine-learning principle, the proposed method gives powerful and flexible genome-wide search for various patterns of gene-gene interaction.

  11. Birth order and selected work-related personality variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, A S; Bedeian, A G; Mossholder, K W; Touliatos, J

    1988-12-01

    A possible link between birth order and various individual characteristics (e. g., intelligence, potential eminence, need for achievement, sociability) has been suggested by personality theorists such as Adler for over a century. The present study examines whether birth order is associated with selected personality variables that may be related to various work outcomes. 3 of 7 hypotheses were supported and the effect sizes for these were small. Firstborns scored significantly higher than later borns on measures of dominance, good impression, and achievement via conformity. No differences between firstborns and later borns were found in managerial potential, work orientation, achievement via independence, and sociability. The study's sample consisted of 835 public, government, and industrial accountants responding to a national US survey of accounting professionals. The nature of the sample may have been partially responsible for the results obtained. Its homogeneity may have caused any birth order effects to wash out. It can be argued that successful membership in the accountancy profession requires internalization of a set of prescribed rules and standards. It may be that accountants as a group are locked in to a behavioral framework. Any differentiation would result from spurious interpersonal differences, not from predictable birth-order related characteristics. A final interpretation is that birth order effects are nonexistent or statistical artifacts. Given the present data and particularistic sample, however, the authors have insufficient information from which to draw such a conclusion.

  12. Multicollinearity and Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daoud, Jamal I.

    2017-12-01

    In regression analysis it is obvious to have a correlation between the response and predictor(s), but having correlation among predictors is something undesired. The number of predictors included in the regression model depends on many factors among which, historical data, experience, etc. At the end selection of most important predictors is something objective due to the researcher. Multicollinearity is a phenomena when two or more predictors are correlated, if this happens, the standard error of the coefficients will increase [8]. Increased standard errors means that the coefficients for some or all independent variables may be found to be significantly different from In other words, by overinflating the standard errors, multicollinearity makes some variables statistically insignificant when they should be significant. In this paper we focus on the multicollinearity, reasons and consequences on the reliability of the regression model.

  13. Land-use regression with long-term satellite-based greenness index and culture-specific sources to model PM2.5 spatial-temporal variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chih-Da; Chen, Yu-Cheng; Pan, Wen-Chi; Zeng, Yu-Ting; Chen, Mu-Jean; Guo, Yue Leon; Lung, Shih-Chun Candice

    2017-05-01

    This study utilized a long-term satellite-based vegetation index, and considered culture-specific emission sources (temples and Chinese restaurants) with Land-use Regression (LUR) modelling to estimate the spatial-temporal variability of PM 2.5 using data from Taipei metropolis, which exhibits typical Asian city characteristics. Annual average PM 2.5 concentrations from 2006 to 2012 of 17 air quality monitoring stations established by Environmental Protection Administration of Taiwan were used for model development. PM 2.5 measurements from 2013 were used for external data verification. Monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images coupled with buffer analysis were used to assess the spatial-temporal variations of greenness surrounding the monitoring sites. The distribution of temples and Chinese restaurants were included to represent the emission contributions from incense and joss money burning, and gas cooking, respectively. Spearman correlation coefficient and stepwise regression were used for LUR model development, and 10-fold cross-validation and external data verification were applied to verify the model reliability. The results showed a strongly negative correlation (r: -0.71 to -0.77) between NDVI and PM 2.5 while temples (r: 0.52 to 0.66) and Chinese restaurants (r: 0.31 to 0.44) were positively correlated to PM 2.5 concentrations. With the adjusted model R 2 of 0.89, a cross-validated adj-R 2 of 0.90, and external validated R 2 of 0.83, the high explanatory power of the resultant model was confirmed. Moreover, the averaged NDVI within a 1750 m circular buffer (p < 0.01), the number of Chinese restaurants within a 1750 m buffer (p < 0.01), and the number of temples within a 750 m buffer (p = 0.06) were selected as important predictors during the stepwise selection procedures. According to the partial R 2 , NDVI explained 66% of PM 2.5 variation and was the dominant variable in the developed model. We suggest future studies

  14. Ultrahigh Dimensional Variable Selection for Interpolation of Point Referenced Spatial Data: A Digital Soil Mapping Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, David W.; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2016-01-01

    Modern soil mapping is characterised by the need to interpolate point referenced (geostatistical) observations and the availability of large numbers of environmental characteristics for consideration as covariates to aid this interpolation. Modelling tasks of this nature also occur in other fields such as biogeography and environmental science. This analysis employs the Least Angle Regression (LAR) algorithm for fitting Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalized Multiple Linear Regressions models. This analysis demonstrates the efficiency of the LAR algorithm at selecting covariates to aid the interpolation of geostatistical soil carbon observations. Where an exhaustive search of the models that could be constructed from 800 potential covariate terms and 60 observations would be prohibitively demanding, LASSO variable selection is accomplished with trivial computational investment. PMID:27603135

  15. Soil Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn sorption and retention models using SVM: Variable selection and competitive model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González Costa, J J; Reigosa, M J; Matías, J M; Covelo, E F

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was to model the sorption and retention of Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in soils. To that extent, the sorption and retention of these metals were studied and the soil characterization was performed separately. Multiple stepwise regression was used to produce multivariate models with linear techniques and with support vector machines, all of which included 15 explanatory variables characterizing soils. When the R-squared values are represented, two different groups are noticed. Cr, Cu and Pb sorption and retention show a higher R-squared; the most explanatory variables being humified organic matter, Al oxides and, in some cases, cation-exchange capacity (CEC). The other group of metals (Cd, Ni and Zn) shows a lower R-squared, and clays are the most explanatory variables, including a percentage of vermiculite and slime. In some cases, quartz, plagioclase or hematite percentages also show some explanatory capacity. Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression shows that the different models are not as regular as in multiple regression in terms of number of variables, the regression for nickel adsorption being the one with the highest number of variables in its optimal model. On the other hand, there are cases where the most explanatory variables are the same for two metals, as it happens with Cd and Cr adsorption. A similar adsorption mechanism is thus postulated. These patterns of the introduction of variables in the model allow us to create explainability sequences. Those which are the most similar to the selectivity sequences obtained by Covelo (2005) are Mn oxides in multiple regression and change capacity in SVM. Among all the variables, the only one that is explanatory for all the metals after applying the maximum parsimony principle is the percentage of sand in the retention process. In the competitive model arising from the aforementioned sequences, the most intense competitiveness for the adsorption and retention of different metals appears between

  16. r2VIM: A new variable selection method for random forests in genome-wide association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szymczak, Silke; Holzinger, Emily; Dasgupta, Abhijit; Malley, James D; Molloy, Anne M; Mills, James L; Brody, Lawrence C; Stambolian, Dwight; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E

    2016-01-01

    Machine learning methods and in particular random forests (RFs) are a promising alternative to standard single SNP analyses in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). RFs provide variable importance measures (VIMs) to rank SNPs according to their predictive power. However, in contrast to the established genome-wide significance threshold, no clear criteria exist to determine how many SNPs should be selected for downstream analyses. We propose a new variable selection approach, recurrent relative variable importance measure (r2VIM). Importance values are calculated relative to an observed minimal importance score for several runs of RF and only SNPs with large relative VIMs in all of the runs are selected as important. Evaluations on simulated GWAS data show that the new method controls the number of false-positives under the null hypothesis. Under a simple alternative hypothesis with several independent main effects it is only slightly less powerful than logistic regression. In an experimental GWAS data set, the same strong signal is identified while the approach selects none of the SNPs in an underpowered GWAS. The novel variable selection method r2VIM is a promising extension to standard RF for objectively selecting relevant SNPs in GWAS while controlling the number of false-positive results.

  17. Input variable selection for interpolating high-resolution climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Although the primary input data of climate interpolations are usually meteorological data, other related (independent) variables are frequently incorporated in the interpolation process. One such variable is elevation, which is known to have a strong influence on climate. This research investigates the potential of 4 additional ...

  18. On the shape of posterior densities and credible sets in instrumental variable regression models with reduced rank: an application of flexible sampling methods using neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogerheide, L.F.; Kaashoek, J.F.; van Dijk, H.K.

    2007-01-01

    Likelihoods and posteriors of instrumental variable (IV) regression models with strong endogeneity and/or weak instruments may exhibit rather non-elliptical contours in the parameter space. This may seriously affect inference based on Bayesian credible sets. When approximating posterior

  19. On the shape of posterior densities and credible sets in instrumental variable regression models with reduced rank: an application of flexible sampling methods using neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); J.F. Kaashoek (Johan); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractLikelihoods and posteriors of instrumental variable regression models with strong endogeneity and/or weak instruments may exhibit rather non-elliptical contours in the parameter space. This may seriously affect inference based on Bayesian credible sets. When approximating such contours

  20. Bias correction by use of errors-in-variables regression models in studies with K-X-ray fluorescence bone lead measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamadrid-Figueroa, Héctor; Téllez-Rojo, Martha M; Angeles, Gustavo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio; Hu, Howard

    2011-01-01

    In-vivo measurement of bone lead by means of K-X-ray fluorescence (KXRF) is the preferred biological marker of chronic exposure to lead. Unfortunately, considerable measurement error associated with KXRF estimations can introduce bias in estimates of the effect of bone lead when this variable is included as the exposure in a regression model. Estimates of uncertainty reported by the KXRF instrument reflect the variance of the measurement error and, although they can be used to correct the measurement error bias, they are seldom used in epidemiological statistical analyzes. Errors-in-variables regression (EIV) allows for correction of bias caused by measurement error in predictor variables, based on the knowledge of the reliability of such variables. The authors propose a way to obtain reliability coefficients for bone lead measurements from uncertainty data reported by the KXRF instrument and compare, by the use of Monte Carlo simulations, results obtained using EIV regression models vs. those obtained by the standard procedures. Results of the simulations show that Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression models provide severely biased estimates of effect, and that EIV provides nearly unbiased estimates. Although EIV effect estimates are more imprecise, their mean squared error is much smaller than that of OLS estimates. In conclusion, EIV is a better alternative than OLS to estimate the effect of bone lead when measured by KXRF. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Regional regression equations for the estimation of selected monthly low-flow duration and frequency statistics at ungaged sites on streams in New Jersey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Kara M.; McHugh, Amy R.

    2014-01-01

    Regional regression equations were developed for estimating monthly flow-duration and monthly low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged streams in Coastal Plain and non-coastal regions of New Jersey for baseline and current land- and water-use conditions. The equations were developed to estimate 87 different streamflow statistics, which include the monthly 99-, 90-, 85-, 75-, 50-, and 25-percentile flow-durations of the minimum 1-day daily flow; the August–September 99-, 90-, and 75-percentile minimum 1-day daily flow; and the monthly 7-day, 10-year (M7D10Y) low-flow frequency. These 87 streamflow statistics were computed for 41 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) with 20 or more years of record and 167 low-flow partial-record stations in New Jersey with 10 or more streamflow measurements. The regression analyses used to develop equations to estimate selected streamflow statistics were performed by testing the relation between flow-duration statistics and low-flow frequency statistics for 32 basin characteristics (physical characteristics, land use, surficial geology, and climate) at the 41 streamgages and 167 low-flow partial-record stations. The regression analyses determined drainage area, soil permeability, average April precipitation, average June precipitation, and percent storage (water bodies and wetlands) were the significant explanatory variables for estimating the selected flow-duration and low-flow frequency statistics. Streamflow estimates were computed for two land- and water-use conditions in New Jersey—land- and water-use during the baseline period of record (defined as the years a streamgage had little to no change in development and water use) and current land- and water-use conditions (1989–2008)—for each selected station using data collected through water year 2008. The baseline period of record is representative of a period when the basin was unaffected by change in development. The current period is

  2. Selecting candidate predictor variables for the modelling of post ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives: The objective of this project was to determine the variables most likely to be associated with post- .... (as defined subjectively by the research team) in global .... ed on their lack of knowledge of wealth scoring tools. ... HIV serology.

  3. A New Variable Weighting and Selection Procedure for K-Means Cluster Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinley, Douglas; Brusco, Michael J.

    2008-01-01

    A variance-to-range ratio variable weighting procedure is proposed. We show how this weighting method is theoretically grounded in the inherent variability found in data exhibiting cluster structure. In addition, a variable selection procedure is proposed to operate in conjunction with the variable weighting technique. The performances of these…

  4. Pathogen-mediated selection for MHC variability in wild zebrafish

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Smith, C.; Ondračková, Markéta; Spence, R.; Adams, S.; Betts, D. S.; Mallon, E.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 6 (2011), s. 589-605 ISSN 1522-0613 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : digenean * frequency-dependent selection * heterozygote advantage * major histocompatibility complex * metazoan parasite * pathogen-driven selection Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 1.029, year: 2011

  5. Multiple Regression and Mediator Variables can be used to Avoid Double Counting when Economic Values are Derived using Stochastic Herd Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Søren; Ettema, Jehan Frans; Hjortø, Line

    Multiple regression and model building with mediator variables was addressed to avoid double counting when economic values are estimated from data simulated with herd simulation modeling (using the SimHerd model). The simulated incidence of metritis was analyzed statistically as the independent v...... in multiparous cows. The merit of using this approach was demonstrated since the economic value of metritis was estimated to be 81% higher when no mediator variables were included in the multiple regression analysis......Multiple regression and model building with mediator variables was addressed to avoid double counting when economic values are estimated from data simulated with herd simulation modeling (using the SimHerd model). The simulated incidence of metritis was analyzed statistically as the independent...... variable, while using the traits representing the direct effects of metritis on yield, fertility and occurrence of other diseases as mediator variables. The economic value of metritis was estimated to be €78 per 100 cow-years for each 1% increase of metritis in the period of 1-100 days in milk...

  6. Relation between sick leave and selected exposure variables among women semiconductor workers in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chee, H; Rampal, K

    2003-01-01

    Aims: To determine the relation between sick leave and selected exposure variables among women semiconductor workers. Methods: This was a cross sectional survey of production workers from 18 semiconductor factories. Those selected had to be women, direct production operators up to the level of line leader, and Malaysian citizens. Sick leave and exposure to physical and chemical hazards were determined by self reporting. Three sick leave variables were used; number of sick leave days taken in the past year was the variable of interest in logistic regression models where the effects of age, marital status, work task, work schedule, work section, and duration of work in factory and work section were also explored. Results: Marital status was strongly linked to the taking of sick leave. Age, work schedule, and duration of work in the factory were significant confounders only in certain cases. After adjusting for these confounders, chemical and physical exposures, with the exception of poor ventilation and smelling chemicals, showed no significant relation to the taking of sick leave within the past year. Work section was a good predictor for taking sick leave, as wafer polishing workers faced higher odds of taking sick leave for each of the three cut off points of seven days, three days, and not at all, while parts assembly workers also faced significantly higher odds of taking sick leave. Conclusion: In Malaysia, the wafer fabrication factories only carry out a limited portion of the work processes, in particular, wafer polishing and the processes immediately prior to and following it. This study, in showing higher illness rates for workers in wafer polishing compared to semiconductor assembly, has implications for the governmental policy of encouraging the setting up of wafer fabrication plants with the full range of work processes. PMID:12660374

  7. Rainfall trends and variability in selected areas of Ethiopian Somali ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Moreover, proper spatial distribution of meteorological stations together with early warning system are required to further support local adaptive and coping strategies that the community designed towards rainfall variability in particular and climate change/disaster and risk at large. Keywords: Ethiopian Somali Region, Gode, ...

  8. Predicting blood β-hydroxybutyrate using milk Fourier transform infrared spectrum, milk composition, and producer-reported variables with multiple linear regression, partial least squares regression, and artificial neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pralle, R S; Weigel, K W; White, H M

    2018-05-01

    Prediction of postpartum hyperketonemia (HYK) using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometry analysis could be a practical diagnostic option for farms because these data are now available from routine milk analysis during Dairy Herd Improvement testing. The objectives of this study were to (1) develop and evaluate blood β-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) prediction models using multivariate linear regression (MLR), partial least squares regression (PLS), and artificial neural network (ANN) methods and (2) evaluate whether milk FTIR spectrum (mFTIR)-based models are improved with the inclusion of test-day variables (mTest; milk composition and producer-reported data). Paired blood and milk samples were collected from multiparous cows 5 to 18 d postpartum at 3 Wisconsin farms (3,629 observations from 1,013 cows). Blood BHB concentration was determined by a Precision Xtra meter (Abbot Diabetes Care, Alameda, CA), and milk samples were analyzed by a privately owned laboratory (AgSource, Menomonie, WI) for components and FTIR spectrum absorbance. Producer-recorded variables were extracted from farm management software. A blood BHB ≥1.2 mmol/L was considered HYK. The data set was divided into a training set (n = 3,020) and an external testing set (n = 609). Model fitting was implemented with JMP 12 (SAS Institute, Cary, NC). A 5-fold cross-validation was performed on the training data set for the MLR, PLS, and ANN prediction methods, with square root of blood BHB as the dependent variable. Each method was fitted using 3 combinations of variables: mFTIR, mTest, or mTest + mFTIR variables. Models were evaluated based on coefficient of determination, root mean squared error, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Four models (PLS-mTest + mFTIR, ANN-mFTIR, ANN-mTest, and ANN-mTest + mFTIR) were chosen for further evaluation in the testing set after fitting to the full training set. In the cross-validation analysis, model fit was greatest for ANN, followed

  9. Joint Variable Selection and Classification with Immunohistochemical Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debashis Ghosh

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available To determine if candidate cancer biomarkers have utility in a clinical setting, validation using immunohistochemical methods is typically done. Most analyses of such data have not incorporated the multivariate nature of the staining profiles. In this article, we consider modelling such data using recently developed ideas from the machine learning community. In particular, we consider the joint goals of feature selection and classification. We develop estimation procedures for the analysis of immunohistochemical profiles using the least absolute selection and shrinkage operator. These lead to novel and flexible models and algorithms for the analysis of compositional data. The techniques are illustrated using data from a cancer biomarker study.

  10. The quasar luminosity function from a variability-selected sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, M. R. S.; Veron, P.

    1993-01-01

    A sample of quasars is selected from a 10-yr sequence of 30 UK Schmidt plates. Luminosity functions are derived in several redshift intervals, which in each case show a featureless power-law rise towards low luminosities. There is no sign of the 'break' found in the recent UVX sample of Boyle et al. It is suggested that reasons for the disagreement are connected with biases in the selection of the UVX sample. The question of the nature of quasar evolution appears to be still unresolved.

  11. Kendall-Theil Robust Line (KTRLine--version 1.0)-A Visual Basic Program for Calculating and Graphing Robust Nonparametric Estimates of Linear-Regression Coefficients Between Two Continuous Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granato, Gregory E.

    2006-01-01

    The Kendall-Theil Robust Line software (KTRLine-version 1.0) is a Visual Basic program that may be used with the Microsoft Windows operating system to calculate parameters for robust, nonparametric estimates of linear-regression coefficients between two continuous variables. The KTRLine software was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration, for use in stochastic data modeling with local, regional, and national hydrologic data sets to develop planning-level estimates of potential effects of highway runoff on the quality of receiving waters. The Kendall-Theil robust line was selected because this robust nonparametric method is resistant to the effects of outliers and nonnormality in residuals that commonly characterize hydrologic data sets. The slope of the line is calculated as the median of all possible pairwise slopes between points. The intercept is calculated so that the line will run through the median of input data. A single-line model or a multisegment model may be specified. The program was developed to provide regression equations with an error component for stochastic data generation because nonparametric multisegment regression tools are not available with the software that is commonly used to develop regression models. The Kendall-Theil robust line is a median line and, therefore, may underestimate total mass, volume, or loads unless the error component or a bias correction factor is incorporated into the estimate. Regression statistics such as the median error, the median absolute deviation, the prediction error sum of squares, the root mean square error, the confidence interval for the slope, and the bias correction factor for median estimates are calculated by use of nonparametric methods. These statistics, however, may be used to formulate estimates of mass, volume, or total loads. The program is used to read a two- or three-column tab-delimited input file with variable names in the first row and

  12. Variable Selection in Time Series Forecasting Using Random Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hristos Tyralis

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Time series forecasting using machine learning algorithms has gained popularity recently. Random forest is a machine learning algorithm implemented in time series forecasting; however, most of its forecasting properties have remained unexplored. Here we focus on assessing the performance of random forests in one-step forecasting using two large datasets of short time series with the aim to suggest an optimal set of predictor variables. Furthermore, we compare its performance to benchmarking methods. The first dataset is composed by 16,000 simulated time series from a variety of Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA models. The second dataset consists of 135 mean annual temperature time series. The highest predictive performance of RF is observed when using a low number of recent lagged predictor variables. This outcome could be useful in relevant future applications, with the prospect to achieve higher predictive accuracy.

  13. Effect of balance exercise on selected kinematic gait variables in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of balance exercise on some selected kinematic gait parameters in patients with knee joint osteoarthritis. Forty subjects (18 men and 22 women) participated in the study.They were divided into two groups: Group 1 (experimental) that was treated with balance exercises, ...

  14. The Relationship between Attitudes toward Censorship and Selected Academic Variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwyer, Edward J.; Summy, Mary K.

    1989-01-01

    To examine characteristics of subjects relative to their attitudes toward censorship, a study surveyed 98 college students selected from students in a public university in the southeastern United States. A 24-item Likert-style censorship scale was used to measure attitudes toward censorship. Strong agreement with affirmative items would suggest…

  15. Understanding logistic regression analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Sperandei, Sandro

    2014-01-01

    Logistic regression is used to obtain odds ratio in the presence of more than one explanatory variable. The procedure is quite similar to multiple linear regression, with the exception that the response variable is binomial. The result is the impact of each variable on the odds ratio of the observed event of interest. The main advantage is to avoid confounding effects by analyzing the association of all variables together. In this article, we explain the logistic regression procedure using ex...

  16. The variability in the effect of additional education on different mathematics skills in primary school - A regression discontinuity analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bartelet, D.; Haelermans, C.; Groot, W.; Maassen van den Brink, H.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the variability in the effect of an additional year of education on different basic mathematical skills, which are taught to children and explicitly repeated at different points in time during elementary school. In addition, the role of child specific characteristics and the role

  17. Predicting Teacher Value-Added Results in Non-Tested Subjects Based on Confounding Variables: A Multinomial Logistic Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Street, Nathan Lee

    2017-01-01

    Teacher value-added measures (VAM) are designed to provide information regarding teachers' causal impact on the academic growth of students while controlling for exogenous variables. While some researchers contend VAMs successfully and authentically measure teacher causality on learning, others suggest VAMs cannot adequately control for exogenous…

  18. An Investigation of the Variables Predicting Faculty of Education Students' Speaking Anxiety through Ordinal Logistic Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozpolat, Ebru

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine whether Cumhuriyet University Faculty of Education students' levels of speaking anxiety are predicted by the variables of gender, department, grade, such sub-dimensions of "Speaking Self-Efficacy Scale for Pre-Service Teachers" as "public speaking," "effective speaking,"…

  19. Statistical modelling for precision agriculture: A case study in optimal environmental schedules for Agaricus Bisporus production via variable domain functional regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panayi, Efstathios; Kyriakides, George

    2017-01-01

    Quantifying the effects of environmental factors over the duration of the growing process on Agaricus Bisporus (button mushroom) yields has been difficult, as common functional data analysis approaches require fixed length functional data. The data available from commercial growers, however, is of variable duration, due to commercial considerations. We employ a recently proposed regression technique termed Variable-Domain Functional Regression in order to be able to accommodate these irregular-length datasets. In this way, we are able to quantify the contribution of covariates such as temperature, humidity and water spraying volumes across the growing process, and for different lengths of growing processes. Our results indicate that optimal oxygen and temperature levels vary across the growing cycle and we propose environmental schedules for these covariates to optimise overall yields. PMID:28961254

  20. The role of multicollinearity in landslide susceptibility assessment by means of Binary Logistic Regression: comparison between VIF and AIC stepwise selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cama, Mariaelena; Cristi Nicu, Ionut; Conoscenti, Christian; Quénéhervé, Geraldine; Maerker, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Landslide susceptibility can be defined as the likelihood of a landslide occurring in a given area on the basis of local terrain conditions. In the last decades many research focused on its evaluation by means of stochastic approaches under the assumption that 'the past is the key to the future' which means that if a model is able to reproduce a known landslide spatial distribution, it will be able to predict the future locations of new (i.e. unknown) slope failures. Among the various stochastic approaches, Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) is one of the most used because it calculates the susceptibility in probabilistic terms and its results are easily interpretable from a geomorphological point of view. However, very often not much importance is given to multicollinearity assessment whose effect is that the coefficient estimates are unstable, with opposite sign and therefore difficult to interpret. Therefore, it should be evaluated every time in order to make a model whose results are geomorphologically correct. In this study the effects of multicollinearity in the predictive performance and robustness of landslide susceptibility models are analyzed. In particular, the multicollinearity is estimated by means of Variation Inflation Index (VIF) which is also used as selection criterion for the independent variables (VIF Stepwise Selection) and compared to the more commonly used AIC Stepwise Selection. The robustness of the results is evaluated through 100 replicates of the dataset. The study area selected to perform this analysis is the Moldavian Plateau where landslides are among the most frequent geomorphological processes. This area has an increasing trend of urbanization and a very high potential regarding the cultural heritage, being the place of discovery of the largest settlement belonging to the Cucuteni Culture from Eastern Europe (that led to the development of the great complex Cucuteni-Tripyllia). Therefore, identifying the areas susceptible to

  1. Developing a spatial-statistical model and map of historical malaria prevalence in Botswana using a staged variable selection procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mabaso Musawenkosi LH

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several malaria risk maps have been developed in recent years, many from the prevalence of infection data collated by the MARA (Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project, and using various environmental data sets as predictors. Variable selection is a major obstacle due to analytical problems caused by over-fitting, confounding and non-independence in the data. Testing and comparing every combination of explanatory variables in a Bayesian spatial framework remains unfeasible for most researchers. The aim of this study was to develop a malaria risk map using a systematic and practicable variable selection process for spatial analysis and mapping of historical malaria risk in Botswana. Results Of 50 potential explanatory variables from eight environmental data themes, 42 were significantly associated with malaria prevalence in univariate logistic regression and were ranked by the Akaike Information Criterion. Those correlated with higher-ranking relatives of the same environmental theme, were temporarily excluded. The remaining 14 candidates were ranked by selection frequency after running automated step-wise selection procedures on 1000 bootstrap samples drawn from the data. A non-spatial multiple-variable model was developed through step-wise inclusion in order of selection frequency. Previously excluded variables were then re-evaluated for inclusion, using further step-wise bootstrap procedures, resulting in the exclusion of another variable. Finally a Bayesian geo-statistical model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation was fitted to the data, resulting in a final model of three predictor variables, namely summer rainfall, mean annual temperature and altitude. Each was independently and significantly associated with malaria prevalence after allowing for spatial correlation. This model was used to predict malaria prevalence at unobserved locations, producing a smooth risk map for the whole country. Conclusion We have

  2. How to regress and predict in a Bland-Altman plot? Review and contribution based on tolerance intervals and correlated-errors-in-variables models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francq, Bernard G; Govaerts, Bernadette

    2016-06-30

    Two main methodologies for assessing equivalence in method-comparison studies are presented separately in the literature. The first one is the well-known and widely applied Bland-Altman approach with its agreement intervals, where two methods are considered interchangeable if their differences are not clinically significant. The second approach is based on errors-in-variables regression in a classical (X,Y) plot and focuses on confidence intervals, whereby two methods are considered equivalent when providing similar measures notwithstanding the random measurement errors. This paper reconciles these two methodologies and shows their similarities and differences using both real data and simulations. A new consistent correlated-errors-in-variables regression is introduced as the errors are shown to be correlated in the Bland-Altman plot. Indeed, the coverage probabilities collapse and the biases soar when this correlation is ignored. Novel tolerance intervals are compared with agreement intervals with or without replicated data, and novel predictive intervals are introduced to predict a single measure in an (X,Y) plot or in a Bland-Atman plot with excellent coverage probabilities. We conclude that the (correlated)-errors-in-variables regressions should not be avoided in method comparison studies, although the Bland-Altman approach is usually applied to avert their complexity. We argue that tolerance or predictive intervals are better alternatives than agreement intervals, and we provide guidelines for practitioners regarding method comparison studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Use of different marker pre-selection methods based on single SNP regression in the estimation of Genomic-EBVs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corrado Dimauro

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Two methods of SNPs pre-selection based on single marker regression for the estimation of genomic breeding values (G-EBVs were compared using simulated data provided by the XII QTL-MAS workshop: i Bonferroni correction of the significance threshold and ii Permutation test to obtain the reference distribution of the null hypothesis and identify significant markers at P<0.01 and P<0.001 significance thresholds. From the set of markers significant at P<0.001, random subsets of 50% and 25% markers were extracted, to evaluate the effect of further reducing the number of significant SNPs on G-EBV predictions. The Bonferroni correction method allowed the identification of 595 significant SNPs that gave the best G-EBV accuracies in prediction generations (82.80%. The permutation methods gave slightly lower G-EBV accuracies even if a larger number of SNPs resulted significant (2,053 and 1,352 for 0.01 and 0.001 significance thresholds, respectively. Interestingly, halving or dividing by four the number of SNPs significant at P<0.001 resulted in an only slightly decrease of G-EBV accuracies. The genetic structure of the simulated population with few QTL carrying large effects, might have favoured the Bonferroni method.

  4. A Mixed Application of Geographically Weighted Regression and Unsupervised Classification for Analyzing Latex Yield Variability in Yunnan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oh Seok Kim

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a mixed method approach for analyzing the determinants of natural latex yields and the associated spatial variations and identifying the most suitable regions for producing latex. Geographically Weighted Regressions (GWR and Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique (ISODATA are jointly applied to the georeferenced data points collected from the rubber plantations in Xishuangbanna (in Yunnan province, south China and other remotely-sensed spatial data. According to the GWR models, Age of rubber tree, Percent of clay in soil, Elevation, Solar radiation, Population, Distance from road, Distance from stream, Precipitation, and Mean temperature turn out statistically significant, indicating that these are the major determinants shaping latex yields at the prefecture level. However, the signs and magnitudes of the parameter estimates at the aggregate level are different from those at the lower spatial level, and the differences are due to diverse reasons. The ISODATA classifies the landscape into three categories: high, medium, and low potential yields. The map reveals that Mengla County has the majority of land with high potential yield, while Jinghong City and Menghai County show lower potential yield. In short, the mixed method can offer a means of providing greater insights in the prediction of agricultural production.

  5. Quantification of benign lesion regression as a function of 532-nm pulsed potassium titanyl phosphate laser parameter selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallur, Pavan S; Tajudeen, Bobby A; Aaronson, Nicole; Branski, Ryan C; Amin, Milan R

    2011-03-01

    Although the potassium titanyl phosphate (KTP) laser is versatile, the variability in laser parameters for laryngeal pathologies and the lack of clinical efficacy data remain problematic. We provide preliminary data regarding these parameters for benign lesion regression. In addition, we describe a novel method for the quantification of the effects of the KTP laser on vocal fold (VF) lesions. Retrospective chart review. Images were captured from examinations before and after in-office KTP treatment in patients with a range of benign lesions. Laser settings were noted for each patient. Imaging software was then used to calculate a ratio of lesion area to VF length. Ten percent of images were requantified to determine inter-rater reliability. Thirty-two patients underwent 47 procedures for lesions including hemorrhagic polyp, nonhemorrhagic polyp, vocal process granuloma, Reinke's edema, cyst/pseudocyst, leukoplakia, and squamous cell carcinoma in situ. No statistically significant differences were observed with regard to the laser parameters used as a function of lesion type. Regardless, by 1 month following treatment, all lesions had significantly decreased in size, except nonhemorrhagic polyps. Similar data were obtained at 2-month follow-up. We then compared the pre-KTP lesion size with the smallest lesion size quantified during the 1-year follow-up period. All lesions were significantly smaller, with the exception of Reinke's edema. Inter-rater reliability was quite good. KTP laser effectively reduced VF lesion size, irrespective of the laser parameters used. In addition, our quantification method for lesion size appeared to be both viable and reliable. Copyright © 2011 The American Laryngological, Rhinological, and Otological Society, Inc.

  6. Random forest variable selection in spatial malaria transmission modelling in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thandi Kapwata

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Malaria is an environmentally driven disease. In order to quantify the spatial variability of malaria transmission, it is imperative to understand the interactions between environmental variables and malaria epidemiology at a micro-geographic level using a novel statistical approach. The random forest (RF statistical learning method, a relatively new variable-importance ranking method, measures the variable importance of potentially influential parameters through the percent increase of the mean squared error. As this value increases, so does the relative importance of the associated variable. The principal aim of this study was to create predictive malaria maps generated using the selected variables based on the RF algorithm in the Ehlanzeni District of Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. From the seven environmental variables used [temperature, lag temperature, rainfall, lag rainfall, humidity, altitude, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI], altitude was identified as the most influential predictor variable due its high selection frequency. It was selected as the top predictor for 4 out of 12 months of the year, followed by NDVI, temperature and lag rainfall, which were each selected twice. The combination of climatic variables that produced the highest prediction accuracy was altitude, NDVI, and temperature. This suggests that these three variables have high predictive capabilities in relation to malaria transmission. Furthermore, it is anticipated that the predictive maps generated from predictions made by the RF algorithm could be used to monitor the progression of malaria and assist in intervention and prevention efforts with respect to malaria.

  7. Adaptive metric kernel regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goutte, Cyril; Larsen, Jan

    2000-01-01

    Kernel smoothing is a widely used non-parametric pattern recognition technique. By nature, it suffers from the curse of dimensionality and is usually difficult to apply to high input dimensions. In this contribution, we propose an algorithm that adapts the input metric used in multivariate...... regression by minimising a cross-validation estimate of the generalisation error. This allows to automatically adjust the importance of different dimensions. The improvement in terms of modelling performance is illustrated on a variable selection task where the adaptive metric kernel clearly outperforms...

  8. Adaptive Metric Kernel Regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goutte, Cyril; Larsen, Jan

    1998-01-01

    Kernel smoothing is a widely used nonparametric pattern recognition technique. By nature, it suffers from the curse of dimensionality and is usually difficult to apply to high input dimensions. In this paper, we propose an algorithm that adapts the input metric used in multivariate regression...... by minimising a cross-validation estimate of the generalisation error. This allows one to automatically adjust the importance of different dimensions. The improvement in terms of modelling performance is illustrated on a variable selection task where the adaptive metric kernel clearly outperforms the standard...

  9. Multivariate modeling of complications with data driven variable selection: Guarding against overfitting and effects of data set size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaaf, Arjen van der; Xu Chengjian; Luijk, Peter van; Veld, Aart A. van’t; Langendijk, Johannes A.; Schilstra, Cornelis

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Multivariate modeling of complications after radiotherapy is frequently used in conjunction with data driven variable selection. This study quantifies the risk of overfitting in a data driven modeling method using bootstrapping for data with typical clinical characteristics, and estimates the minimum amount of data needed to obtain models with relatively high predictive power. Materials and methods: To facilitate repeated modeling and cross-validation with independent datasets for the assessment of true predictive power, a method was developed to generate simulated data with statistical properties similar to real clinical data sets. Characteristics of three clinical data sets from radiotherapy treatment of head and neck cancer patients were used to simulate data with set sizes between 50 and 1000 patients. A logistic regression method using bootstrapping and forward variable selection was used for complication modeling, resulting for each simulated data set in a selected number of variables and an estimated predictive power. The true optimal number of variables and true predictive power were calculated using cross-validation with very large independent data sets. Results: For all simulated data set sizes the number of variables selected by the bootstrapping method was on average close to the true optimal number of variables, but showed considerable spread. Bootstrapping is more accurate in selecting the optimal number of variables than the AIC and BIC alternatives, but this did not translate into a significant difference of the true predictive power. The true predictive power asymptotically converged toward a maximum predictive power for large data sets, and the estimated predictive power converged toward the true predictive power. More than half of the potential predictive power is gained after approximately 200 samples. Our simulations demonstrated severe overfitting (a predicative power lower than that of predicting 50% probability) in a number of small

  10. Resiliency and subjective health assessment. Moderating role of selected psychosocial variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michalina Sołtys

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background Resiliency is defined as a relatively permanent personality trait, which may be assigned to the category of health resources. The aim of this study was to determine conditions in which resiliency poses a significant health resource (moderation, thereby broadening knowledge of the specifics of the relationship between resiliency and subjective health assessment. Participants and procedure The study included 142 individuals. In order to examine the level of resiliency, the Assessment Resiliency Scale (SPP-25 by N. Ogińska-Bulik and Z. Juczyński was used. Participants evaluated subjective health state by means of an analogue-visual scale. Additionally, in the research the following moderating variables were controlled: sex, objective health status, having a partner, professional activity and age. These data were obtained by personal survey. Results The results confirmed the relationship between resiliency and subjective health assessment. Multiple regression analysis revealed that sex, having a partner and professional activity are significant moderators of associations between level of resiliency and subjective health evaluation. However, statistically significant interaction effects for health status and age as a moderator were not observed. Conclusions Resiliency is associated with subjective health assessment among adults, and selected socio-demographic features (such as sex, having a partner, professional activity moderate this relationship. This confirms the significant role of resiliency as a health resource and a reason to emphasize the benefits of enhancing the potential of individuals for their psychophysical wellbeing. However, the research requires replication in a more homogeneous sample.

  11. Variable Selection for Nonparametric Gaussian Process Priors: Models and Computational Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savitsky, Terrance; Vannucci, Marina; Sha, Naijun

    2011-02-01

    This paper presents a unified treatment of Gaussian process models that extends to data from the exponential dispersion family and to survival data. Our specific interest is in the analysis of data sets with predictors that have an a priori unknown form of possibly nonlinear associations to the response. The modeling approach we describe incorporates Gaussian processes in a generalized linear model framework to obtain a class of nonparametric regression models where the covariance matrix depends on the predictors. We consider, in particular, continuous, categorical and count responses. We also look into models that account for survival outcomes. We explore alternative covariance formulations for the Gaussian process prior and demonstrate the flexibility of the construction. Next, we focus on the important problem of selecting variables from the set of possible predictors and describe a general framework that employs mixture priors. We compare alternative MCMC strategies for posterior inference and achieve a computationally efficient and practical approach. We demonstrate performances on simulated and benchmark data sets.

  12. FCERI AND HISTAMINE METABOLISM GENE VARIABILITY IN SELECTIVE RESPONDERS TO NSAIDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gemma Amo

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The high-affinity IgE receptor (Fcε RI is a heterotetramer of three subunits: Fcε RIα, Fcε RIβ and Fcε RIγ (αβγ2 encoded by three genes designated as FCER1A, FCER1B (MS4A2 and FCER1G, respectively. Recent evidence points to FCERI gene variability as a relevant factor in the risk of developing allergic diseases. Because Fcε RI plays a key role in the events downstream of the triggering factors in immunological response, we hypothesized that FCERI gene variants might be related with the risk of, or with the clinical response to, selective (IgE mediated non-steroidal anti-inflammatory (NSAID hypersensitivity.From a cohort of 314 patients suffering from selective hypersensitivity to metamizole, ibuprofen, diclofenac, paracetamol, acetylsalicylic acid (ASA, propifenazone, naproxen, ketoprofen, dexketoprofen, etofenamate, aceclofenac, etoricoxib, dexibuprofen, indomethacin, oxyphenylbutazone or piroxicam, and 585 unrelated healthy controls that tolerated these NSAIDs, we analyzed the putative effects of the FCERI SNPs FCER1A rs2494262, rs2427837 and rs2251746; FCER1B rs1441586, rs569108 and rs512555; FCER1G rs11587213, rs2070901 and rs11421. Furthermore, in order to identify additional genetic markers which might be associated with the risk of developing selective NSAID hypersensitivity, or which may modify the putative association of FCERI gene variations with risk, we analyzed polymorphisms known to affect histamine synthesis or metabolism, such as rs17740607, rs2073440, rs1801105, rs2052129, rs10156191, rs1049742 and rs1049793 in the HDC, HNMT and DAO genes.No major genetic associations with risk or with clinical presentation, and no gene-gene interactions, or gene-phenotype interactions (including age, gender, IgE concentration, antecedents of atopy, culprit drug or clinical presentation were identified in patients. However, logistic regression analyses indicated that the presence of antecedents of atopy and the DAO SNP rs2052129 (GG

  13. Predicting hyperketonemia by logistic and linear regression using test-day milk and performance variables in early-lactation Holstein and Jersey cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, T L; Pralle, R S; Dórea, J R R; Poock, S E; Oetzel, G R; Fourdraine, R H; White, H M

    2018-03-01

    Although cowside testing strategies for diagnosing hyperketonemia (HYK) are available, many are labor intensive and costly, and some lack sufficient accuracy. Predicting milk ketone bodies by Fourier transform infrared spectrometry during routine milk sampling may offer a more practical monitoring strategy. The objectives of this study were to (1) develop linear and logistic regression models using all available test-day milk and performance variables for predicting HYK and (2) compare prediction methods (Fourier transform infrared milk ketone bodies, linear regression models, and logistic regression models) to determine which is the most predictive of HYK. Given the data available, a secondary objective was to evaluate differences in test-day milk and performance variables (continuous measurements) between Holsteins and Jerseys and between cows with or without HYK within breed. Blood samples were collected on the same day as milk sampling from 658 Holstein and 468 Jersey cows between 5 and 20 d in milk (DIM). Diagnosis of HYK was at a serum β-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) concentration ≥1.2 mmol/L. Concentrations of milk BHB and acetone were predicted by Fourier transform infrared spectrometry (Foss Analytical, Hillerød, Denmark). Thresholds of milk BHB and acetone were tested for diagnostic accuracy, and logistic models were built from continuous variables to predict HYK in primiparous and multiparous cows within breed. Linear models were constructed from continuous variables for primiparous and multiparous cows within breed that were 5 to 11 DIM or 12 to 20 DIM. Milk ketone body thresholds diagnosed HYK with 64.0 to 92.9% accuracy in Holsteins and 59.1 to 86.6% accuracy in Jerseys. Logistic models predicted HYK with 82.6 to 97.3% accuracy. Internally cross-validated multiple linear regression models diagnosed HYK of Holstein cows with 97.8% accuracy for primiparous and 83.3% accuracy for multiparous cows. Accuracy of Jersey models was 81.3% in primiparous and 83

  14. Multiple-output support vector machine regression with feature selection for arousal/valence space emotion assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Valencia, Cristian A; Álvarez, Mauricio A; Orozco-Gutiérrez, Alvaro A

    2014-01-01

    Human emotion recognition (HER) allows the assessment of an affective state of a subject. Until recently, such emotional states were described in terms of discrete emotions, like happiness or contempt. In order to cover a high range of emotions, researchers in the field have introduced different dimensional spaces for emotion description that allow the characterization of affective states in terms of several variables or dimensions that measure distinct aspects of the emotion. One of the most common of such dimensional spaces is the bidimensional Arousal/Valence space. To the best of our knowledge, all HER systems so far have modelled independently, the dimensions in these dimensional spaces. In this paper, we study the effect of modelling the output dimensions simultaneously and show experimentally the advantages in modeling them in this way. We consider a multimodal approach by including features from the Electroencephalogram and a few physiological signals. For modelling the multiple outputs, we employ a multiple output regressor based on support vector machines. We also include an stage of feature selection that is developed within an embedded approach known as Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE), proposed initially for SVM. The results show that several features can be eliminated using the multiple output support vector regressor with RFE without affecting the performance of the regressor. From the analysis of the features selected in smaller subsets via RFE, it can be observed that the signals that are more informative into the arousal and valence space discrimination are the EEG, Electrooculogram/Electromiogram (EOG/EMG) and the Galvanic Skin Response (GSR).

  15. Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection methods for random forest modeling in ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Eric W; Hill, Ryan A; Leibowitz, Scott G; Olsen, Anthony R; Thornbrugh, Darren J; Weber, Marc H

    2017-07-01

    Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological data sets, there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, either a preselected set of predictor variables are used or stepwise procedures are employed which iteratively remove variables according to their importance measures. This paper investigates the application of variable selection methods to RF models for predicting probable biological stream condition. Our motivating data set consists of the good/poor condition of n = 1365 stream survey sites from the 2008/2009 National Rivers and Stream Assessment, and a large set (p = 212) of landscape features from the StreamCat data set as potential predictors. We compare two types of RF models: a full variable set model with all 212 predictors and a reduced variable set model selected using a backward elimination approach. We assess model accuracy using RF's internal out-of-bag estimate, and a cross-validation procedure with validation folds external to the variable selection process. We also assess the stability of the spatial predictions generated by the RF models to changes in the number of predictors and argue that model selection needs to consider both accuracy and stability. The results suggest that RF modeling is robust to the inclusion of many variables of moderate to low importance. We found no substantial improvement in cross-validated accuracy as a result of variable reduction. Moreover, the backward elimination procedure tended to select too few variables and exhibited numerous issues such as upwardly biased out-of-bag accuracy estimates and instabilities in the spatial predictions. We use simulations to further support and generalize results from the analysis of real data. A main purpose of this work is to elucidate issues of model selection bias and instability to ecologists interested in

  16. Accounting for Regressive Eye-Movements in Models of Sentence Processing: A Reappraisal of the Selective Reanalysis Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Don C.; Shen, Xingjia; Green, Matthew J.; Hodgson, Timothy L.

    2008-01-01

    When people read temporarily ambiguous sentences, there is often an increased prevalence of regressive eye-movements launched from the word that resolves the ambiguity. Traditionally, such regressions have been interpreted at least in part as reflecting readers' efforts to re-read and reconfigure earlier material, as exemplified by the Selective…

  17. Using Random Forests to Select Optimal Input Variables for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Wang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Achieving relatively high-accuracy short-term wind speed forecasting estimates is a precondition for the construction and grid-connected operation of wind power forecasting systems for wind farms. Currently, most research is focused on the structure of forecasting models and does not consider the selection of input variables, which can have significant impacts on forecasting performance. This paper presents an input variable selection method for wind speed forecasting models. The candidate input variables for various leading periods are selected and random forests (RF is employed to evaluate the importance of all variable as features. The feature subset with the best evaluation performance is selected as the optimal feature set. Then, kernel-based extreme learning machine is constructed to evaluate the performance of input variables selection based on RF. The results of the case study show that by removing the uncorrelated and redundant features, RF effectively extracts the most strongly correlated set of features from the candidate input variables. By finding the optimal feature combination to represent the original information, RF simplifies the structure of the wind speed forecasting model, shortens the training time required, and substantially improves the model’s accuracy and generalization ability, demonstrating that the input variables selected by RF are effective.

  18. Variability-based active galactic nucleus selection using image subtraction in the SDSS and LSST era

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Yumi; Gibson, Robert R.; Becker, Andrew C.; Ivezić, Željko; Connolly, Andrew J.; Ruan, John J.; Anderson, Scott F. [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Box 351580, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); MacLeod, Chelsea L., E-mail: ymchoi@astro.washington.edu [Physics Department, U.S. Naval Academy, 572 Holloway Road, Annapolis, MD 21402 (United States)

    2014-02-10

    With upcoming all-sky surveys such as LSST poised to generate a deep digital movie of the optical sky, variability-based active galactic nucleus (AGN) selection will enable the construction of highly complete catalogs with minimum contamination. In this study, we generate g-band difference images and construct light curves (LCs) for QSO/AGN candidates listed in Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 public catalogs compiled from different methods, including spectroscopy, optical colors, variability, and X-ray detection. Image differencing excels at identifying variable sources embedded in complex or blended emission regions such as Type II AGNs and other low-luminosity AGNs that may be omitted from traditional photometric or spectroscopic catalogs. To separate QSOs/AGNs from other sources using our difference image LCs, we explore several LC statistics and parameterize optical variability by the characteristic damping timescale (τ) and variability amplitude. By virtue of distinguishable variability parameters of AGNs, we are able to select them with high completeness of 93.4% and efficiency (i.e., purity) of 71.3%. Based on optical variability, we also select highly variable blazar candidates, whose infrared colors are consistent with known blazars. One-third of them are also radio detected. With the X-ray selected AGN candidates, we probe the optical variability of X-ray detected optically extended sources using their difference image LCs for the first time. A combination of optical variability and X-ray detection enables us to select various types of host-dominated AGNs. Contrary to the AGN unification model prediction, two Type II AGN candidates (out of six) show detectable variability on long-term timescales like typical Type I AGNs. This study will provide a baseline for future optical variability studies of extended sources.

  19. Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection methods for random forest modeling in ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological datasets there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, e...

  20. Assessing the impact of local meteorological variables on surface ozone in Hong Kong during 2000-2015 using quantile and multiple line regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wei; Fan, Shaojia; Guo, Hai; Gao, Bo; Sun, Jiaren; Chen, Laiguo

    2016-11-01

    The quantile regression (QR) method has been increasingly introduced to atmospheric environmental studies to explore the non-linear relationship between local meteorological conditions and ozone mixing ratios. In this study, we applied QR for the first time, together with multiple linear regression (MLR), to analyze the dominant meteorological parameters influencing the mean, 10th percentile, 90th percentile and 99th percentile of maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in 2000-2015 in Hong Kong. The dominance analysis (DA) was used to assess the relative importance of meteorological variables in the regression models. Results showed that the MLR models worked better at suburban and rural sites than at urban sites, and worked better in winter than in summer. QR models performed better in summer for 99th and 90th percentiles and performed better in autumn and winter for 10th percentile. And QR models also performed better in suburban and rural areas for 10th percentile. The top 3 dominant variables associated with MDA8 ozone concentrations, changing with seasons and regions, were frequently associated with the six meteorological parameters: boundary layer height, humidity, wind direction, surface solar radiation, total cloud cover and sea level pressure. Temperature rarely became a significant variable in any season, which could partly explain the peak of monthly average ozone concentrations in October in Hong Kong. And we found the effect of solar radiation would be enhanced during extremely ozone pollution episodes (i.e., the 99th percentile). Finally, meteorological effects on MDA8 ozone had no significant changes before and after the 2010 Asian Games.

  1. Petroleomics by electrospray ionization FT-ICR mass spectrometry coupled to partial least squares with variable selection methods: prediction of the total acid number of crude oils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terra, Luciana A; Filgueiras, Paulo R; Tose, Lílian V; Romão, Wanderson; de Souza, Douglas D; de Castro, Eustáquio V R; de Oliveira, Mirela S L; Dias, Júlio C M; Poppi, Ronei J

    2014-10-07

    Negative-ion mode electrospray ionization, ESI(-), with Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) was coupled to a Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and variable selection methods to estimate the total acid number (TAN) of Brazilian crude oil samples. Generally, ESI(-)-FT-ICR mass spectra present a power of resolution of ca. 500,000 and a mass accuracy less than 1 ppm, producing a data matrix containing over 5700 variables per sample. These variables correspond to heteroatom-containing species detected as deprotonated molecules, [M - H](-) ions, which are identified primarily as naphthenic acids, phenols and carbazole analog species. The TAN values for all samples ranged from 0.06 to 3.61 mg of KOH g(-1). To facilitate the spectral interpretation, three methods of variable selection were studied: variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least squares (iPLS) and elimination of uninformative variables (UVE). The UVE method seems to be more appropriate for selecting important variables, reducing the dimension of the variables to 183 and producing a root mean square error of prediction of 0.32 mg of KOH g(-1). By reducing the size of the data, it was possible to relate the selected variables with their corresponding molecular formulas, thus identifying the main chemical species responsible for the TAN values.

  2. A Comparative Investigation of the Combined Effects of Pre-Processing, Wavelength Selection, and Regression Methods on Near-Infrared Calibration Model Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Jian; Chen, Yi-Chieh; Morris, A Julian; Thennadil, Suresh N

    2017-07-01

    Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy is being widely used in various fields ranging from pharmaceutics to the food industry for analyzing chemical and physical properties of the substances concerned. Its advantages over other analytical techniques include available physical interpretation of spectral data, nondestructive nature and high speed of measurements, and little or no need for sample preparation. The successful application of NIR spectroscopy relies on three main aspects: pre-processing of spectral data to eliminate nonlinear variations due to temperature, light scattering effects and many others, selection of those wavelengths that contribute useful information, and identification of suitable calibration models using linear/nonlinear regression . Several methods have been developed for each of these three aspects and many comparative studies of different methods exist for an individual aspect or some combinations. However, there is still a lack of comparative studies for the interactions among these three aspects, which can shed light on what role each aspect plays in the calibration and how to combine various methods of each aspect together to obtain the best calibration model. This paper aims to provide such a comparative study based on four benchmark data sets using three typical pre-processing methods, namely, orthogonal signal correction (OSC), extended multiplicative signal correction (EMSC) and optical path-length estimation and correction (OPLEC); two existing wavelength selection methods, namely, stepwise forward selection (SFS) and genetic algorithm optimization combined with partial least squares regression for spectral data (GAPLSSP); four popular regression methods, namely, partial least squares (PLS), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM), and Gaussian process regression (GPR). The comparative study indicates that, in general, pre-processing of spectral data can play a significant

  3. Dual Regression

    OpenAIRE

    Spady, Richard; Stouli, Sami

    2012-01-01

    We propose dual regression as an alternative to the quantile regression process for the global estimation of conditional distribution functions under minimal assumptions. Dual regression provides all the interpretational power of the quantile regression process while avoiding the need for repairing the intersecting conditional quantile surfaces that quantile regression often produces in practice. Our approach introduces a mathematical programming characterization of conditional distribution f...

  4. Punishment induced behavioural and neurophysiological variability reveals dopamine-dependent selection of kinematic movement parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galea, Joseph M.; Ruge, Diane; Buijink, Arthur; Bestmann, Sven; Rothwell, John C.

    2013-01-01

    Action selection describes the high-level process which selects between competing movements. In animals, behavioural variability is critical for the motor exploration required to select the action which optimizes reward and minimizes cost/punishment, and is guided by dopamine (DA). The aim of this study was to test in humans whether low-level movement parameters are affected by punishment and reward in ways similar to high-level action selection. Moreover, we addressed the proposed dependence of behavioural and neurophysiological variability on DA, and whether this may underpin the exploration of kinematic parameters. Participants performed an out-and-back index finger movement and were instructed that monetary reward and punishment were based on its maximal acceleration (MA). In fact, the feedback was not contingent on the participant’s behaviour but pre-determined. Blocks highly-biased towards punishment were associated with increased MA variability relative to blocks with either reward or without feedback. This increase in behavioural variability was positively correlated with neurophysiological variability, as measured by changes in cortico-spinal excitability with transcranial magnetic stimulation over the primary motor cortex. Following the administration of a DA-antagonist, the variability associated with punishment diminished and the correlation between behavioural and neurophysiological variability no longer existed. Similar changes in variability were not observed when participants executed a pre-determined MA, nor did DA influence resting neurophysiological variability. Thus, under conditions of punishment, DA-dependent processes influence the selection of low-level movement parameters. We propose that the enhanced behavioural variability reflects the exploration of kinematic parameters for less punishing, or conversely more rewarding, outcomes. PMID:23447607

  5. Variable selectivity and the role of nutritional quality in food selection by a planktonic rotifer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sierszen, M.E.

    1990-01-01

    To investigate the potential for selective feeding to enhance fitness, I test the hypothesis that an herbivorous zooplankter selects those food items that best support its reproduction. Under this hypothesis, growth and reproduction on selected food items should be higher than on less preferred items. The hypothesis is not supported. In situ selectivity by the rotifer Keratella taurocephala for Cryptomonas relative to Chlamydomonas goes through a seasonal cycle, in apparent response to fluctuating Cryptomonas populations. However, reproduction on a unialgal diet of Cryptomonas is consistently high and similar to that on Chlamydomonas. Oocystis, which also supports reproduction equivalent to that supported by Chlamydomonas, is sometimes rejected by K. taurocephala. In addition, K. taurocephala does not discriminate between Merismopedia and Chlamydomonas even though Merismopedia supports virtually no reproduction by the rotifer. Selection by K. taurocephala does not simply maximize the intake of food items that yield high reproduction. Selectivity is a complex, dynamic process, one function of which may be the exploitation of locally or seasonally abundant foods. (author)

  6. The Effects of Variability and Risk in Selection Utility Analysis: An Empirical Comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rich, Joseph R.; Boudreau, John W.

    1987-01-01

    Investigated utility estimate variability for the selection utility of using the Programmer Aptitude Test to select computer programmers. Comparison of Monte Carlo results to other risk assessment approaches (sensitivity analysis, break-even analysis, algebraic derivation of the distribtion) suggests that distribution information provided by Monte…

  7. Interpreting the concordance statistic of a logistic regression model: relation to the variance and odds ratio of a continuous explanatory variable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Steyerberg, Ewout W

    2012-06-20

    When outcomes are binary, the c-statistic (equivalent to the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve) is a standard measure of the predictive accuracy of a logistic regression model. An analytical expression was derived under the assumption that a continuous explanatory variable follows a normal distribution in those with and without the condition. We then conducted an extensive set of Monte Carlo simulations to examine whether the expressions derived under the assumption of binormality allowed for accurate prediction of the empirical c-statistic when the explanatory variable followed a normal distribution in the combined sample of those with and without the condition. We also examine the accuracy of the predicted c-statistic when the explanatory variable followed a gamma, log-normal or uniform distribution in combined sample of those with and without the condition. Under the assumption of binormality with equality of variances, the c-statistic follows a standard normal cumulative distribution function with dependence on the product of the standard deviation of the normal components (reflecting more heterogeneity) and the log-odds ratio (reflecting larger effects). Under the assumption of binormality with unequal variances, the c-statistic follows a standard normal cumulative distribution function with dependence on the standardized difference of the explanatory variable in those with and without the condition. In our Monte Carlo simulations, we found that these expressions allowed for reasonably accurate prediction of the empirical c-statistic when the distribution of the explanatory variable was normal, gamma, log-normal, and uniform in the entire sample of those with and without the condition. The discriminative ability of a continuous explanatory variable cannot be judged by its odds ratio alone, but always needs to be considered in relation to the heterogeneity of the population.

  8. Spatial variability of excess mortality during prolonged dust events in a high-density city: a time-stratified spatial regression approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Man Sing; Ho, Hung Chak; Yang, Lin; Shi, Wenzhong; Yang, Jinxin; Chan, Ta-Chien

    2017-07-24

    Dust events have long been recognized to be associated with a higher mortality risk. However, no study has investigated how prolonged dust events affect the spatial variability of mortality across districts in a downwind city. In this study, we applied a spatial regression approach to estimate the district-level mortality during two extreme dust events in Hong Kong. We compared spatial and non-spatial models to evaluate the ability of each regression to estimate mortality. We also compared prolonged dust events with non-dust events to determine the influences of community factors on mortality across the city. The density of a built environment (estimated by the sky view factor) had positive association with excess mortality in each district, while socioeconomic deprivation contributed by lower income and lower education induced higher mortality impact in each territory planning unit during a prolonged dust event. Based on the model comparison, spatial error modelling with the 1st order of queen contiguity consistently outperformed other models. The high-risk areas with higher increase in mortality were located in an urban high-density environment with higher socioeconomic deprivation. Our model design shows the ability to predict spatial variability of mortality risk during an extreme weather event that is not able to be estimated based on traditional time-series analysis or ecological studies. Our spatial protocol can be used for public health surveillance, sustainable planning and disaster preparation when relevant data are available.

  9. A Time-Series Water Level Forecasting Model Based on Imputation and Variable Selection Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun-He; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Chan, Chia-Pan

    2017-01-01

    Reservoirs are important for households and impact the national economy. This paper proposed a time-series forecasting model based on estimating a missing value followed by variable selection to forecast the reservoir's water level. This study collected data from the Taiwan Shimen Reservoir as well as daily atmospheric data from 2008 to 2015. The two datasets are concatenated into an integrated dataset based on ordering of the data as a research dataset. The proposed time-series forecasting model summarily has three foci. First, this study uses five imputation methods to directly delete the missing value. Second, we identified the key variable via factor analysis and then deleted the unimportant variables sequentially via the variable selection method. Finally, the proposed model uses a Random Forest to build the forecasting model of the reservoir's water level. This was done to compare with the listing method under the forecasting error. These experimental results indicate that the Random Forest forecasting model when applied to variable selection with full variables has better forecasting performance than the listing model. In addition, this experiment shows that the proposed variable selection can help determine five forecast methods used here to improve the forecasting capability.

  10. A Time-Series Water Level Forecasting Model Based on Imputation and Variable Selection Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-He Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Reservoirs are important for households and impact the national economy. This paper proposed a time-series forecasting model based on estimating a missing value followed by variable selection to forecast the reservoir’s water level. This study collected data from the Taiwan Shimen Reservoir as well as daily atmospheric data from 2008 to 2015. The two datasets are concatenated into an integrated dataset based on ordering of the data as a research dataset. The proposed time-series forecasting model summarily has three foci. First, this study uses five imputation methods to directly delete the missing value. Second, we identified the key variable via factor analysis and then deleted the unimportant variables sequentially via the variable selection method. Finally, the proposed model uses a Random Forest to build the forecasting model of the reservoir’s water level. This was done to compare with the listing method under the forecasting error. These experimental results indicate that the Random Forest forecasting model when applied to variable selection with full variables has better forecasting performance than the listing model. In addition, this experiment shows that the proposed variable selection can help determine five forecast methods used here to improve the forecasting capability.

  11. Spatial variability in levels of benzene, formaldehyde, and total benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes in New York City: a land-use regression study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kheirbek Iyad

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hazardous air pollutant exposures are common in urban areas contributing to increased risk of cancer and other adverse health outcomes. While recent analyses indicate that New York City residents experience significantly higher cancer risks attributable to hazardous air pollutant exposures than the United States as a whole, limited data exist to assess intra-urban variability in air toxics exposures. Methods To assess intra-urban spatial variability in exposures to common hazardous air pollutants, street-level air sampling for volatile organic compounds and aldehydes was conducted at 70 sites throughout New York City during the spring of 2011. Land-use regression models were developed using a subset of 59 sites and validated against the remaining 11 sites to describe the relationship between concentrations of benzene, total BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes and formaldehyde to indicators of local sources, adjusting for temporal variation. Results Total BTEX levels exhibited the most spatial variability, followed by benzene and formaldehyde (coefficient of variation of temporally adjusted measurements of 0.57, 0.35, 0.22, respectively. Total roadway length within 100 m, traffic signal density within 400 m of monitoring sites, and an indicator of temporal variation explained 65% of the total variability in benzene while 70% of the total variability in BTEX was accounted for by traffic signal density within 450 m, density of permitted solvent-use industries within 500 m, and an indicator of temporal variation. Measures of temporal variation, traffic signal density within 400 m, road length within 100 m, and interior building area within 100 m (indicator of heating fuel combustion predicted 83% of the total variability of formaldehyde. The models built with the modeling subset were found to predict concentrations well, predicting 62% to 68% of monitored values at validation sites. Conclusions Traffic and

  12. Spatial variability in levels of benzene, formaldehyde, and total benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes in New York City: a land-use regression study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kheirbek, Iyad; Johnson, Sarah; Ross, Zev; Pezeshki, Grant; Ito, Kazuhiko; Eisl, Holger; Matte, Thomas

    2012-07-31

    Hazardous air pollutant exposures are common in urban areas contributing to increased risk of cancer and other adverse health outcomes. While recent analyses indicate that New York City residents experience significantly higher cancer risks attributable to hazardous air pollutant exposures than the United States as a whole, limited data exist to assess intra-urban variability in air toxics exposures. To assess intra-urban spatial variability in exposures to common hazardous air pollutants, street-level air sampling for volatile organic compounds and aldehydes was conducted at 70 sites throughout New York City during the spring of 2011. Land-use regression models were developed using a subset of 59 sites and validated against the remaining 11 sites to describe the relationship between concentrations of benzene, total BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes) and formaldehyde to indicators of local sources, adjusting for temporal variation. Total BTEX levels exhibited the most spatial variability, followed by benzene and formaldehyde (coefficient of variation of temporally adjusted measurements of 0.57, 0.35, 0.22, respectively). Total roadway length within 100 m, traffic signal density within 400 m of monitoring sites, and an indicator of temporal variation explained 65% of the total variability in benzene while 70% of the total variability in BTEX was accounted for by traffic signal density within 450 m, density of permitted solvent-use industries within 500 m, and an indicator of temporal variation. Measures of temporal variation, traffic signal density within 400 m, road length within 100 m, and interior building area within 100 m (indicator of heating fuel combustion) predicted 83% of the total variability of formaldehyde. The models built with the modeling subset were found to predict concentrations well, predicting 62% to 68% of monitored values at validation sites. Traffic and point source emissions cause substantial variation in street-level exposures

  13. Regression model development and computational procedures to support estimation of real-time concentrations and loads of selected constituents in two tributaries to Lake Houston near Houston, Texas, 2005-9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Michael T.; Asquith, William H.; Oden, Timothy D.

    2012-01-01

    In December 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the City of Houston, Texas, began collecting discrete water-quality samples for nutrients, total organic carbon, bacteria (Escherichia coli and total coliform), atrazine, and suspended sediment at two USGS streamflow-gaging stations that represent watersheds contributing to Lake Houston (08068500 Spring Creek near Spring, Tex., and 08070200 East Fork San Jacinto River near New Caney, Tex.). Data from the discrete water-quality samples collected during 2005–9, in conjunction with continuously monitored real-time data that included streamflow and other physical water-quality properties (specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen), were used to develop regression models for the estimation of concentrations of water-quality constituents of substantial source watersheds to Lake Houston. The potential explanatory variables included discharge (streamflow), specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, and time (to account for seasonal variations inherent in some water-quality data). The response variables (the selected constituents) at each site were nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, total phosphorus, total organic carbon, E. coli, atrazine, and suspended sediment. The explanatory variables provide easily measured quantities to serve as potential surrogate variables to estimate concentrations of the selected constituents through statistical regression. Statistical regression also facilitates accompanying estimates of uncertainty in the form of prediction intervals. Each regression model potentially can be used to estimate concentrations of a given constituent in real time. Among other regression diagnostics, the diagnostics used as indicators of general model reliability and reported herein include the adjusted R-squared, the residual standard error, residual plots, and p-values. Adjusted R-squared values for the Spring Creek models ranged

  14. Network-based group variable selection for detecting expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Xuegong

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Analysis of expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL aims to identify the genetic loci associated with the expression level of genes. Penalized regression with a proper penalty is suitable for the high-dimensional biological data. Its performance should be enhanced when we incorporate biological knowledge of gene expression network and linkage disequilibrium (LD structure between loci in high-noise background. Results We propose a network-based group variable selection (NGVS method for QTL detection. Our method simultaneously maps highly correlated expression traits sharing the same biological function to marker sets formed by LD. By grouping markers, complex joint activity of multiple SNPs can be considered and the dimensionality of eQTL problem is reduced dramatically. In order to demonstrate the power and flexibility of our method, we used it to analyze two simulations and a mouse obesity and diabetes dataset. We considered the gene co-expression network, grouped markers into marker sets and treated the additive and dominant effect of each locus as a group: as a consequence, we were able to replicate results previously obtained on the mouse linkage dataset. Furthermore, we observed several possible sex-dependent loci and interactions of multiple SNPs. Conclusions The proposed NGVS method is appropriate for problems with high-dimensional data and high-noise background. On eQTL problem it outperforms the classical Lasso method, which does not consider biological knowledge. Introduction of proper gene expression and loci correlation information makes detecting causal markers more accurate. With reasonable model settings, NGVS can lead to novel biological findings.

  15. Regression Levels of Selected Affective Factors on Science Achievement: A Structural Equation Model with TIMSS 2011 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akilli, Mustafa

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to demonstrate the science success regression levels of chosen emotional features of 8th grade students using Structural Equation Model. The study was conducted by the analysis of students' questionnaires and science success in TIMSS 2011 data using SEM. Initially, the factors that are thought to have an effect on science…

  16. Predictive and Descriptive CoMFA Models: The Effect of Variable Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepehri, Bakhtyar; Omidikia, Nematollah; Kompany-Zareh, Mohsen; Ghavami, Raouf

    2018-01-01

    Aims & Scope: In this research, 8 variable selection approaches were used to investigate the effect of variable selection on the predictive power and stability of CoMFA models. Three data sets including 36 EPAC antagonists, 79 CD38 inhibitors and 57 ATAD2 bromodomain inhibitors were modelled by CoMFA. First of all, for all three data sets, CoMFA models with all CoMFA descriptors were created then by applying each variable selection method a new CoMFA model was developed so for each data set, 9 CoMFA models were built. Obtained results show noisy and uninformative variables affect CoMFA results. Based on created models, applying 5 variable selection approaches including FFD, SRD-FFD, IVE-PLS, SRD-UVEPLS and SPA-jackknife increases the predictive power and stability of CoMFA models significantly. Among them, SPA-jackknife removes most of the variables while FFD retains most of them. FFD and IVE-PLS are time consuming process while SRD-FFD and SRD-UVE-PLS run need to few seconds. Also applying FFD, SRD-FFD, IVE-PLS, SRD-UVE-PLS protect CoMFA countor maps information for both fields. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  17. Understanding logistic regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperandei, Sandro

    2014-01-01

    Logistic regression is used to obtain odds ratio in the presence of more than one explanatory variable. The procedure is quite similar to multiple linear regression, with the exception that the response variable is binomial. The result is the impact of each variable on the odds ratio of the observed event of interest. The main advantage is to avoid confounding effects by analyzing the association of all variables together. In this article, we explain the logistic regression procedure using examples to make it as simple as possible. After definition of the technique, the basic interpretation of the results is highlighted and then some special issues are discussed.

  18. Regression analysis by example

    CERN Document Server

    Chatterjee, Samprit

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the Fourth Edition: ""This book is . . . an excellent source of examples for regression analysis. It has been and still is readily readable and understandable."" -Journal of the American Statistical Association Regression analysis is a conceptually simple method for investigating relationships among variables. Carrying out a successful application of regression analysis, however, requires a balance of theoretical results, empirical rules, and subjective judgment. Regression Analysis by Example, Fifth Edition has been expanded

  19. Joint High-Dimensional Bayesian Variable and Covariance Selection with an Application to eQTL Analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Bhadra, Anindya

    2013-04-22

    We describe a Bayesian technique to (a) perform a sparse joint selection of significant predictor variables and significant inverse covariance matrix elements of the response variables in a high-dimensional linear Gaussian sparse seemingly unrelated regression (SSUR) setting and (b) perform an association analysis between the high-dimensional sets of predictors and responses in such a setting. To search the high-dimensional model space, where both the number of predictors and the number of possibly correlated responses can be larger than the sample size, we demonstrate that a marginalization-based collapsed Gibbs sampler, in combination with spike and slab type of priors, offers a computationally feasible and efficient solution. As an example, we apply our method to an expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis on publicly available single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and gene expression data for humans where the primary interest lies in finding the significant associations between the sets of SNPs and possibly correlated genetic transcripts. Our method also allows for inference on the sparse interaction network of the transcripts (response variables) after accounting for the effect of the SNPs (predictor variables). We exploit properties of Gaussian graphical models to make statements concerning conditional independence of the responses. Our method compares favorably to existing Bayesian approaches developed for this purpose. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  20. A Matlab program for stepwise regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanhong Qi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The stepwise linear regression is a multi-variable regression for identifying statistically significant variables in the linear regression equation. In present study, we presented the Matlab program of stepwise regression.

  1. Density dependence and climate effects in Rocky Mountain elk: an application of regression with instrumental variables for population time series with sampling error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creel, Scott; Creel, Michael

    2009-11-01

    1. Sampling error in annual estimates of population size creates two widely recognized problems for the analysis of population growth. First, if sampling error is mistakenly treated as process error, one obtains inflated estimates of the variation in true population trajectories (Staples, Taper & Dennis 2004). Second, treating sampling error as process error is thought to overestimate the importance of density dependence in population growth (Viljugrein et al. 2005; Dennis et al. 2006). 2. In ecology, state-space models are used to account for sampling error when estimating the effects of density and other variables on population growth (Staples et al. 2004; Dennis et al. 2006). In econometrics, regression with instrumental variables is a well-established method that addresses the problem of correlation between regressors and the error term, but requires fewer assumptions than state-space models (Davidson & MacKinnon 1993; Cameron & Trivedi 2005). 3. We used instrumental variables to account for sampling error and fit a generalized linear model to 472 annual observations of population size for 35 Elk Management Units in Montana, from 1928 to 2004. We compared this model with state-space models fit with the likelihood function of Dennis et al. (2006). We discuss the general advantages and disadvantages of each method. Briefly, regression with instrumental variables is valid with fewer distributional assumptions, but state-space models are more efficient when their distributional assumptions are met. 4. Both methods found that population growth was negatively related to population density and winter snow accumulation. Summer rainfall and wolf (Canis lupus) presence had much weaker effects on elk (Cervus elaphus) dynamics [though limitation by wolves is strong in some elk populations with well-established wolf populations (Creel et al. 2007; Creel & Christianson 2008)]. 5. Coupled with predictions for Montana from global and regional climate models, our results

  2. Modified Regression Correlation Coefficient for Poisson Regression Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaengthong, Nattacha; Domthong, Uthumporn

    2017-09-01

    This study gives attention to indicators in predictive power of the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) which are widely used; however, often having some restrictions. We are interested in regression correlation coefficient for a Poisson regression model. This is a measure of predictive power, and defined by the relationship between the dependent variable (Y) and the expected value of the dependent variable given the independent variables [E(Y|X)] for the Poisson regression model. The dependent variable is distributed as Poisson. The purpose of this research was modifying regression correlation coefficient for Poisson regression model. We also compare the proposed modified regression correlation coefficient with the traditional regression correlation coefficient in the case of two or more independent variables, and having multicollinearity in independent variables. The result shows that the proposed regression correlation coefficient is better than the traditional regression correlation coefficient based on Bias and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).

  3. Online Monitoring of Copper Damascene Electroplating Bath by Voltammetry: Selection of Variables for Multiblock and Hierarchical Chemometric Analysis of Voltammetric Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksander Jaworski

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Real Time Analyzer (RTA utilizing DC- and AC-voltammetric techniques is an in situ, online monitoring system that provides a complete chemical analysis of different electrochemical deposition solutions. The RTA employs multivariate calibration when predicting concentration parameters from a multivariate data set. Although the hierarchical and multiblock Principal Component Regression- (PCR- and Partial Least Squares- (PLS- based methods can handle data sets even when the number of variables significantly exceeds the number of samples, it can be advantageous to reduce the number of variables to obtain improvement of the model predictions and better interpretation. This presentation focuses on the introduction of a multistep, rigorous method of data-selection-based Least Squares Regression, Simple Modeling of Class Analogy modeling power, and, as a novel application in electroanalysis, Uninformative Variable Elimination by PLS and by PCR, Variable Importance in the Projection coupled with PLS, Interval PLS, Interval PCR, and Moving Window PLS. Selection criteria of the optimum decomposition technique for the specific data are also demonstrated. The chief goal of this paper is to introduce to the community of electroanalytical chemists numerous variable selection methods which are well established in spectroscopy and can be successfully applied to voltammetric data analysis.

  4. Selection of variables for neural network analysis. Comparisons of several methods with high energy physics data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proriol, J.

    1994-01-01

    Five different methods are compared for selecting the most important variables with a view to classifying high energy physics events with neural networks. The different methods are: the F-test, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), a decision tree method: CART, weight evaluation, and Optimal Cell Damage (OCD). The neural networks use the variables selected with the different methods. We compare the percentages of events properly classified by each neural network. The learning set and the test set are the same for all the neural networks. (author)

  5. Curve fitting and modeling with splines using statistical variable selection techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, P. L.

    1982-01-01

    The successful application of statistical variable selection techniques to fit splines is demonstrated. Major emphasis is given to knot selection, but order determination is also discussed. Two FORTRAN backward elimination programs, using the B-spline basis, were developed. The program for knot elimination is compared in detail with two other spline-fitting methods and several statistical software packages. An example is also given for the two-variable case using a tensor product basis, with a theoretical discussion of the difficulties of their use.

  6. Seleção de variáveis em QSAR Variable selection in QSAR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Márcia Miguel Castro Ferreira

    2002-05-01

    Full Text Available The process of building mathematical models in quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR studies is generally limited by the size of the dataset used to select variables from. For huge datasets, the task of selecting a given number of variables that produces the best linear model can be enormous, if not unfeasible. In this case, some methods can be used to separate good parameter combinations from the bad ones. In this paper three methodologies are analyzed: systematic search, genetic algorithm and chemometric methods. These methods have been exposed and discussed through practical examples.

  7. Current Debates on Variability in Child Welfare Decision-Making: A Selected Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Keddell

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This article considers selected drivers of decision variability in child welfare decision-making and explores current debates in relation to these drivers. Covering the related influences of national orientation, risk and responsibility, inequality and poverty, evidence-based practice, constructions of abuse and its causes, domestic violence and cognitive processes, it discusses the literature in regards to how each of these influences decision variability. It situates these debates in relation to the ethical issue of variability and the equity issues that variability raises. I propose that despite the ecological complexity that drives decision variability, that improving internal (within-country decision consistency is still a valid goal. It may be that the use of annotated case examples, kind learning systems, and continued commitments to the social justice issues of inequality and individualisation can contribute to this goal.

  8. Quantile Regression Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzenberger, Bernd; Wilke, Ralf Andreas

    2015-01-01

    if the mean regression model does not. We provide a short informal introduction into the principle of quantile regression which includes an illustrative application from empirical labor market research. This is followed by briefly sketching the underlying statistical model for linear quantile regression based......Quantile regression is emerging as a popular statistical approach, which complements the estimation of conditional mean models. While the latter only focuses on one aspect of the conditional distribution of the dependent variable, the mean, quantile regression provides more detailed insights...... by modeling conditional quantiles. Quantile regression can therefore detect whether the partial effect of a regressor on the conditional quantiles is the same for all quantiles or differs across quantiles. Quantile regression can provide evidence for a statistical relationship between two variables even...

  9. Variable selection based on clustering analysis for improvement of polyphenols prediction in green tea using synchronous fluorescence spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shan, Jiajia; Wang, Xue; Zhou, Hao; Han, Shuqing; Riza, Dimas Firmanda Al; Kondo, Naoshi

    2018-04-01

    Synchronous fluorescence spectra, combined with multivariate analysis were used to predict flavonoids content in green tea rapidly and nondestructively. This paper presented a new and efficient spectral intervals selection method called clustering based partial least square (CL-PLS), which selected informative wavelengths by combining clustering concept and partial least square (PLS) methods to improve models’ performance by synchronous fluorescence spectra. The fluorescence spectra of tea samples were obtained and k-means and kohonen-self organizing map clustering algorithms were carried out to cluster full spectra into several clusters, and sub-PLS regression model was developed on each cluster. Finally, CL-PLS models consisting of gradually selected clusters were built. Correlation coefficient (R) was used to evaluate the effect on prediction performance of PLS models. In addition, variable influence on projection partial least square (VIP-PLS), selectivity ratio partial least square (SR-PLS), interval partial least square (iPLS) models and full spectra PLS model were investigated and the results were compared. The results showed that CL-PLS presented the best result for flavonoids prediction using synchronous fluorescence spectra.

  10. EFFECT OF CORE TRAINING ON SELECTED HEMATOLOGICAL VARIABLES AMONG BASKETBALL PLAYERS

    OpenAIRE

    K. Rejinadevi; Dr. C. Ramesh

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to find out the effect of core training on selected haematological variables among basketball players. For the purpose of the study forty men basketball players were selected as subjects from S.V.N College and Arul Anandar College, Madurai, Tamilnadu at random and their age ranged from 18 to 25 years. The selected subjects are divided in to two groups of twenty subjects each. Group I acted as core training group and Group II acted as control group. The experimenta...

  11. A Robust Supervised Variable Selection for Noisy High-Dimensional Data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kalina, Jan; Schlenker, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 2015, Article 320385 (2015), s. 1-10 ISSN 2314-6133 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-17187S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : dimensionality reduction * variable selection * robustness Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 2.134, year: 2015

  12. Automatic variable selection method and a comparison for quantitative analysis in laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Fajie; Fu, Xiao; Jiang, Jiajia; Huang, Tingting; Ma, Ling; Zhang, Cong

    2018-05-01

    In this work, an automatic variable selection method for quantitative analysis of soil samples using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is proposed, which is based on full spectrum correction (FSC) and modified iterative predictor weighting-partial least squares (mIPW-PLS). The method features automatic selection without artificial processes. To illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the method, a comparison with genetic algorithm (GA) and successive projections algorithm (SPA) for different elements (copper, barium and chromium) detection in soil was implemented. The experimental results showed that all the three methods could accomplish variable selection effectively, among which FSC-mIPW-PLS required significantly shorter computation time (12 s approximately for 40,000 initial variables) than the others. Moreover, improved quantification models were got with variable selection approaches. The root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) of models utilizing the new method were 27.47 (copper), 37.15 (barium) and 39.70 (chromium) mg/kg, which showed comparable prediction effect with GA and SPA.

  13. Sparse supervised principal component analysis (SSPCA) for dimension reduction and variable selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharifzadeh, Sara; Ghodsi, Ali; Clemmensen, Line H.

    2017-01-01

    Principal component analysis (PCA) is one of the main unsupervised pre-processing methods for dimension reduction. When the training labels are available, it is worth using a supervised PCA strategy. In cases that both dimension reduction and variable selection are required, sparse PCA (SPCA...

  14. Cataclysmic variables from a ROSAT/2MASS selection - I. Four new intermediate polars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gänsicke, B.T.; Marsh, T.R.; Edge, A.; Rodríguez-Gil, P.; Steeghs, D.; Araujo-Betancor, S.; Harlaftis, E.; Giannakis, O.; Pyrzas, S.; Morales-Rueda, L.; Aungwerojwit, A.

    2005-01-01

    We report the first results from a new search for cataclysmic variables (CVs) using a combined X-ray (ROSAT)/infrared (2MASS) target selection that discriminates against background active galactic nuclei. Identification spectra were obtained at the Isaac Newton Telescope for a total of 174 targets,

  15. Variable selection in the explorative analysis of several data blocks in metabolomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karaman, İbrahim; Nørskov, Natalja; Yde, Christian Clement

    highly correlated data sets in one integrated approach. Due to the high number of variables in data sets from metabolomics (both raw data and after peak picking) the selection of important variables in an explorative analysis is difficult, especially when different data sets of metabolomics data need...... to be related. Tools for the handling of mental overflow minimising false discovery rates both by using statistical and biological validation in an integrative approach are needed. In this paper different strategies for variable selection were considered with respect to false discovery and the possibility...... for biological validation. The data set used in this study is metabolomics data from an animal intervention study. The aim of the metabolomics study was to investigate the metabolic profile in pigs fed various cereal fractions with special attention to the metabolism of lignans using NMR and LC-MS based...

  16. Multivariate fault isolation of batch processes via variable selection in partial least squares discriminant analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Zhengbing; Kuang, Te-Hui; Yao, Yuan

    2017-09-01

    In recent years, multivariate statistical monitoring of batch processes has become a popular research topic, wherein multivariate fault isolation is an important step aiming at the identification of the faulty variables contributing most to the detected process abnormality. Although contribution plots have been commonly used in statistical fault isolation, such methods suffer from the smearing effect between correlated variables. In particular, in batch process monitoring, the high autocorrelations and cross-correlations that exist in variable trajectories make the smearing effect unavoidable. To address such a problem, a variable selection-based fault isolation method is proposed in this research, which transforms the fault isolation problem into a variable selection problem in partial least squares discriminant analysis and solves it by calculating a sparse partial least squares model. As different from the traditional methods, the proposed method emphasizes the relative importance of each process variable. Such information may help process engineers in conducting root-cause diagnosis. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Not accounting for interindividual variability can mask habitat selection patterns: a case study on black bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesmerises, Rémi; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

    2017-11-01

    Habitat selection studies conducted at the population scale commonly aim to describe general patterns that could improve our understanding of the limiting factors in species-habitat relationships. Researchers often consider interindividual variation in selection patterns to control for its effects and avoid pseudoreplication by using mixed-effect models that include individuals as random factors. Here, we highlight common pitfalls and possible misinterpretations of this strategy by describing habitat selection of 21 black bears Ursus americanus. We used Bayesian mixed-effect models and compared results obtained when using random intercept (i.e., population level) versus calculating individual coefficients for each independent variable (i.e., individual level). We then related interindividual variability to individual characteristics (i.e., age, sex, reproductive status, body condition) in a multivariate analysis. The assumption of comparable behavior among individuals was verified only in 40% of the cases in our seasonal best models. Indeed, we found strong and opposite responses among sampled bears and individual coefficients were linked to individual characteristics. For some covariates, contrasted responses canceled each other out at the population level. In other cases, interindividual variability was concealed by the composition of our sample, with the majority of the bears (e.g., old individuals and bears in good physical condition) driving the population response (e.g., selection of young forest cuts). Our results stress the need to consider interindividual variability to avoid misinterpretation and uninformative results, especially for a flexible and opportunistic species. This study helps to identify some ecological drivers of interindividual variability in bear habitat selection patterns.

  18. Regression Phalanxes

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Hongyang; Welch, William J.; Zamar, Ruben H.

    2017-01-01

    Tomal et al. (2015) introduced the notion of "phalanxes" in the context of rare-class detection in two-class classification problems. A phalanx is a subset of features that work well for classification tasks. In this paper, we propose a different class of phalanxes for application in regression settings. We define a "Regression Phalanx" - a subset of features that work well together for prediction. We propose a novel algorithm which automatically chooses Regression Phalanxes from high-dimensi...

  19. High Resolution Mapping of Soil Properties Using Remote Sensing Variables in South-Western Burkina Faso: A Comparison of Machine Learning and Multiple Linear Regression Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkuor, Gerald; Hounkpatin, Ozias K L; Welp, Gerhard; Thiel, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Accurate and detailed spatial soil information is essential for environmental modelling, risk assessment and decision making. The use of Remote Sensing data as secondary sources of information in digital soil mapping has been found to be cost effective and less time consuming compared to traditional soil mapping approaches. But the potentials of Remote Sensing data in improving knowledge of local scale soil information in West Africa have not been fully explored. This study investigated the use of high spatial resolution satellite data (RapidEye and Landsat), terrain/climatic data and laboratory analysed soil samples to map the spatial distribution of six soil properties-sand, silt, clay, cation exchange capacity (CEC), soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen-in a 580 km2 agricultural watershed in south-western Burkina Faso. Four statistical prediction models-multiple linear regression (MLR), random forest regression (RFR), support vector machine (SVM), stochastic gradient boosting (SGB)-were tested and compared. Internal validation was conducted by cross validation while the predictions were validated against an independent set of soil samples considering the modelling area and an extrapolation area. Model performance statistics revealed that the machine learning techniques performed marginally better than the MLR, with the RFR providing in most cases the highest accuracy. The inability of MLR to handle non-linear relationships between dependent and independent variables was found to be a limitation in accurately predicting soil properties at unsampled locations. Satellite data acquired during ploughing or early crop development stages (e.g. May, June) were found to be the most important spectral predictors while elevation, temperature and precipitation came up as prominent terrain/climatic variables in predicting soil properties. The results further showed that shortwave infrared and near infrared channels of Landsat8 as well as soil specific indices of redness

  20. High Resolution Mapping of Soil Properties Using Remote Sensing Variables in South-Western Burkina Faso: A Comparison of Machine Learning and Multiple Linear Regression Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald Forkuor

    Full Text Available Accurate and detailed spatial soil information is essential for environmental modelling, risk assessment and decision making. The use of Remote Sensing data as secondary sources of information in digital soil mapping has been found to be cost effective and less time consuming compared to traditional soil mapping approaches. But the potentials of Remote Sensing data in improving knowledge of local scale soil information in West Africa have not been fully explored. This study investigated the use of high spatial resolution satellite data (RapidEye and Landsat, terrain/climatic data and laboratory analysed soil samples to map the spatial distribution of six soil properties-sand, silt, clay, cation exchange capacity (CEC, soil organic carbon (SOC and nitrogen-in a 580 km2 agricultural watershed in south-western Burkina Faso. Four statistical prediction models-multiple linear regression (MLR, random forest regression (RFR, support vector machine (SVM, stochastic gradient boosting (SGB-were tested and compared. Internal validation was conducted by cross validation while the predictions were validated against an independent set of soil samples considering the modelling area and an extrapolation area. Model performance statistics revealed that the machine learning techniques performed marginally better than the MLR, with the RFR providing in most cases the highest accuracy. The inability of MLR to handle non-linear relationships between dependent and independent variables was found to be a limitation in accurately predicting soil properties at unsampled locations. Satellite data acquired during ploughing or early crop development stages (e.g. May, June were found to be the most important spectral predictors while elevation, temperature and precipitation came up as prominent terrain/climatic variables in predicting soil properties. The results further showed that shortwave infrared and near infrared channels of Landsat8 as well as soil specific indices

  1. Vector regression introduced

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mok Tik

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This study formulates regression of vector data that will enable statistical analysis of various geodetic phenomena such as, polar motion, ocean currents, typhoon/hurricane tracking, crustal deformations, and precursory earthquake signals. The observed vector variable of an event (dependent vector variable is expressed as a function of a number of hypothesized phenomena realized also as vector variables (independent vector variables and/or scalar variables that are likely to impact the dependent vector variable. The proposed representation has the unique property of solving the coefficients of independent vector variables (explanatory variables also as vectors, hence it supersedes multivariate multiple regression models, in which the unknown coefficients are scalar quantities. For the solution, complex numbers are used to rep- resent vector information, and the method of least squares is deployed to estimate the vector model parameters after transforming the complex vector regression model into a real vector regression model through isomorphism. Various operational statistics for testing the predictive significance of the estimated vector parameter coefficients are also derived. A simple numerical example demonstrates the use of the proposed vector regression analysis in modeling typhoon paths.

  2. Effects of carprofen or meloxicam on selected haemostatic variables in miniature pigs after orthopaedic surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Raušer

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to detect and compare the haemostatic variables and bleeding after 7‑days administration of carprofen or meloxicam in clinically healthy miniature pigs. Twenty-one clinically healthy Göttingen miniature pigs were divided into 3 groups. Selected haemostatic variables such as platelet count, prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, thrombin time, fibrinogen, serum biochemical variables such as total protein, bilirubin, urea, creatinine, alkaline phosphatase, alanine aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyltransferase and haemoglobin, haematocrit, red blood cells, white blood cells and buccal mucosal bleeding time were assessed before and 7 days after daily intramuscular administration of saline (1.5 ml per animal, control group, carprofen (2 mg·kg-1 or meloxicam (0.1 mg·kg-1. In pigs receiving carprofen or meloxicam, the thrombin time was significantly increased (p p p p < 0.05 compared to the control group. Significant differences were not detected in other haemostatic, biochemical variables or bleeding time compared to other groups or to the pretreatment values. Intramuscular administration of carprofen or meloxicam in healthy miniature pigs for 7 days causes sporadic, but not clinically important changes of selected haemostatic variables. Therefore, we can recommend them for perioperative use, e.g. for their analgesic effects, in orthopaedic or other surgical procedures without increased bleeding.

  3. Sparse reduced-rank regression with covariance estimation

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Lisha

    2014-12-08

    Improving the predicting performance of the multiple response regression compared with separate linear regressions is a challenging question. On the one hand, it is desirable to seek model parsimony when facing a large number of parameters. On the other hand, for certain applications it is necessary to take into account the general covariance structure for the errors of the regression model. We assume a reduced-rank regression model and work with the likelihood function with general error covariance to achieve both objectives. In addition we propose to select relevant variables for reduced-rank regression by using a sparsity-inducing penalty, and to estimate the error covariance matrix simultaneously by using a similar penalty on the precision matrix. We develop a numerical algorithm to solve the penalized regression problem. In a simulation study and real data analysis, the new method is compared with two recent methods for multivariate regression and exhibits competitive performance in prediction and variable selection.

  4. Sparse reduced-rank regression with covariance estimation

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Lisha; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2014-01-01

    Improving the predicting performance of the multiple response regression compared with separate linear regressions is a challenging question. On the one hand, it is desirable to seek model parsimony when facing a large number of parameters. On the other hand, for certain applications it is necessary to take into account the general covariance structure for the errors of the regression model. We assume a reduced-rank regression model and work with the likelihood function with general error covariance to achieve both objectives. In addition we propose to select relevant variables for reduced-rank regression by using a sparsity-inducing penalty, and to estimate the error covariance matrix simultaneously by using a similar penalty on the precision matrix. We develop a numerical algorithm to solve the penalized regression problem. In a simulation study and real data analysis, the new method is compared with two recent methods for multivariate regression and exhibits competitive performance in prediction and variable selection.

  5. Regression models to estimate real-time concentrations of selected constituents in two tributaries to Lake Houston near Houston, Texas, 2005-07

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oden, Timothy D.; Asquith, William H.; Milburn, Matthew S.

    2009-01-01

    In December 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the City of Houston, Texas, began collecting discrete water-quality samples for nutrients, total organic carbon, bacteria (total coliform and Escherichia coli), atrazine, and suspended sediment at two U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations upstream from Lake Houston near Houston (08068500 Spring Creek near Spring, Texas, and 08070200 East Fork San Jacinto River near New Caney, Texas). The data from the discrete water-quality samples collected during 2005-07, in conjunction with monitored real-time data already being collected - physical properties (specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen), streamflow, and rainfall - were used to develop regression models for predicting water-quality constituent concentrations for inflows to Lake Houston. Rainfall data were obtained from a rain gage monitored by Harris County Homeland Security and Emergency Management and colocated with the Spring Creek station. The leaps and bounds algorithm was used to find the best subsets of possible regression models (minimum residual sum of squares for a given number of variables). The potential explanatory or predictive variables included discharge (streamflow), specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, rainfall, and time (to account for seasonal variations inherent in some water-quality data). The response variables at each site were nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, total phosphorus, organic carbon, Escherichia coli, atrazine, and suspended sediment. The explanatory variables provide easily measured quantities as a means to estimate concentrations of the various constituents under investigation, with accompanying estimates of measurement uncertainty. Each regression equation can be used to estimate concentrations of a given constituent in real time. In conjunction with estimated concentrations, constituent loads were estimated by multiplying the

  6. A New Variable Selection Method Based on Mutual Information Maximization by Replacing Collinear Variables for Nonlinear Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghasemi, Jahan B.; Zolfonoun, Ehsan [Toosi University of Technology, Tehran (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-05-15

    Selection of the most informative molecular descriptors from the original data set is a key step for development of quantitative structure activity/property relationship models. Recently, mutual information (MI) has gained increasing attention in feature selection problems. This paper presents an effective mutual information-based feature selection approach, named mutual information maximization by replacing collinear variables (MIMRCV), for nonlinear quantitative structure-property relationship models. The proposed variable selection method was applied to three different QSPR datasets, soil degradation half-life of 47 organophosphorus pesticides, GC-MS retention times of 85 volatile organic compounds, and water-to-micellar cetyltrimethylammonium bromide partition coefficients of 62 organic compounds.The obtained results revealed that using MIMRCV as feature selection method improves the predictive quality of the developed models compared to conventional MI based variable selection algorithms.

  7. A New Variable Selection Method Based on Mutual Information Maximization by Replacing Collinear Variables for Nonlinear Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghasemi, Jahan B.; Zolfonoun, Ehsan

    2012-01-01

    Selection of the most informative molecular descriptors from the original data set is a key step for development of quantitative structure activity/property relationship models. Recently, mutual information (MI) has gained increasing attention in feature selection problems. This paper presents an effective mutual information-based feature selection approach, named mutual information maximization by replacing collinear variables (MIMRCV), for nonlinear quantitative structure-property relationship models. The proposed variable selection method was applied to three different QSPR datasets, soil degradation half-life of 47 organophosphorus pesticides, GC-MS retention times of 85 volatile organic compounds, and water-to-micellar cetyltrimethylammonium bromide partition coefficients of 62 organic compounds.The obtained results revealed that using MIMRCV as feature selection method improves the predictive quality of the developed models compared to conventional MI based variable selection algorithms

  8. Input variable selection for data-driven models of Coriolis flowmeters for two-phase flow measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Lijuan; Yan, Yong; Wang, Xue; Wang, Tao

    2017-01-01

    Input variable selection is an essential step in the development of data-driven models for environmental, biological and industrial applications. Through input variable selection to eliminate the irrelevant or redundant variables, a suitable subset of variables is identified as the input of a model. Meanwhile, through input variable selection the complexity of the model structure is simplified and the computational efficiency is improved. This paper describes the procedures of the input variable selection for the data-driven models for the measurement of liquid mass flowrate and gas volume fraction under two-phase flow conditions using Coriolis flowmeters. Three advanced input variable selection methods, including partial mutual information (PMI), genetic algorithm-artificial neural network (GA-ANN) and tree-based iterative input selection (IIS) are applied in this study. Typical data-driven models incorporating support vector machine (SVM) are established individually based on the input candidates resulting from the selection methods. The validity of the selection outcomes is assessed through an output performance comparison of the SVM based data-driven models and sensitivity analysis. The validation and analysis results suggest that the input variables selected from the PMI algorithm provide more effective information for the models to measure liquid mass flowrate while the IIS algorithm provides a fewer but more effective variables for the models to predict gas volume fraction. (paper)

  9. Calibration Variable Selection and Natural Zero Determination for Semispan and Canard Balances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulbrich, Norbert M.

    2013-01-01

    Independent calibration variables for the characterization of semispan and canard wind tunnel balances are discussed. It is shown that the variable selection for a semispan balance is determined by the location of the resultant normal and axial forces that act on the balance. These two forces are the first and second calibration variable. The pitching moment becomes the third calibration variable after the normal and axial forces are shifted to the pitch axis of the balance. Two geometric distances, i.e., the rolling and yawing moment arms, are the fourth and fifth calibration variable. They are traditionally substituted by corresponding moments to simplify the use of calibration data during a wind tunnel test. A canard balance is related to a semispan balance. It also only measures loads on one half of a lifting surface. However, the axial force and yawing moment are of no interest to users of a canard balance. Therefore, its calibration variable set is reduced to the normal force, pitching moment, and rolling moment. The combined load diagrams of the rolling and yawing moment for a semispan balance are discussed. They may be used to illustrate connections between the wind tunnel model geometry, the test section size, and the calibration load schedule. Then, methods are reviewed that may be used to obtain the natural zeros of a semispan or canard balance. In addition, characteristics of three semispan balance calibration rigs are discussed. Finally, basic requirements for a full characterization of a semispan balance are reviewed.

  10. The Selection, Use, and Reporting of Control Variables in International Business Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Bo Bernhard; Raswant, Arpit

    2018-01-01

    This study explores the selection, use, and reporting of control variables in studies published in the leading international business (IB) research journals. We review a sample of 246 empirical studies published in the top five IB journals over the period 2012–2015 with particular emphasis...... on selection, use, and reporting of controls. Approximately 83% of studies included only half of what we consider Minimum Standard of Practice with regards to controls, whereas only 38% of the studies met the 75% threshold. We provide recommendations on how to effectively identify, use and report controls...

  11. Demographic Variables and Selective, Sustained Attention and Planning through Cognitive Tasks among Healthy Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afsaneh Zarghi

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Cognitive tasks are considered to be applicable and appropriate in assessing cognitive domains. The purpose of our study is to determine the relationship existence between variables of age, sex and education with selective, sustained attention and planning abilities by means of computerized cognitive tasks among healthy adults. Methods: A cross-sectional study was implemented during 6 months from June to November, 2010 on 84 healthy adults (42 male and 42 female. The whole participants performed computerized CPT, STROOP and TOL tests after being content and trained. Results: The obtained data indicate that there is a significant correlation coefficient between age, sex and education variables (p<0.05. Discussion: The above-mentioned tests can be used to assess selective, sustained attention and planning.

  12. Hybrid Model Based on Genetic Algorithms and SVM Applied to Variable Selection within Fruit Juice Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Fernandez-Lozano

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Given the background of the use of Neural Networks in problems of apple juice classification, this paper aim at implementing a newly developed method in the field of machine learning: the Support Vector Machines (SVM. Therefore, a hybrid model that combines genetic algorithms and support vector machines is suggested in such a way that, when using SVM as a fitness function of the Genetic Algorithm (GA, the most representative variables for a specific classification problem can be selected.

  13. A Time-Series Water Level Forecasting Model Based on Imputation and Variable Selection Method

    OpenAIRE

    Jun-He Yang; Ching-Hsue Cheng; Chia-Pan Chan

    2017-01-01

    Reservoirs are important for households and impact the national economy. This paper proposed a time-series forecasting model based on estimating a missing value followed by variable selection to forecast the reservoir's water level. This study collected data from the Taiwan Shimen Reservoir as well as daily atmospheric data from 2008 to 2015. The two datasets are concatenated into an integrated dataset based on ordering of the data as a research dataset. The proposed time-series forecasting m...

  14. Demographic Variables and Selective, Sustained Attention and Planning through Cognitive Tasks among Healthy Adults

    OpenAIRE

    Afsaneh Zarghi; Zali; A; Tehranidost; M; Mohammad Reza Zarindast; Ashrafi; F; Doroodgar; Khodadadi

    2011-01-01

    Introduction: Cognitive tasks are considered to be applicable and appropriate in assessing cognitive domains. The purpose of our study is to determine the relationship existence between variables of age, sex and education with selective, sustained attention and planning abilities by means of computerized cognitive tasks among healthy adults. Methods: A cross-sectional study was implemented during 6 months from June to November, 2010 on 84 healthy adults (42 male and 42 female). The whole part...

  15. Data re-arranging techniques leading to proper variable selections in high energy physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kůs, Václav; Bouř, Petr

    2017-12-01

    We introduce a new data based approach to homogeneity testing and variable selection carried out in high energy physics experiments, where one of the basic tasks is to test the homogeneity of weighted samples, mainly the Monte Carlo simulations (weighted) and real data measurements (unweighted). This technique is called ’data re-arranging’ and it enables variable selection performed by means of the classical statistical homogeneity tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, or Pearson’s chi-square divergence test. P-values of our variants of homogeneity tests are investigated and the empirical verification through 46 dimensional high energy particle physics data sets is accomplished under newly proposed (equiprobable) quantile binning. Particularly, the procedure of homogeneity testing is applied to re-arranged Monte Carlo samples and real DATA sets measured at the particle accelerator Tevatron in Fermilab at DØ experiment originating from top-antitop quark pair production in two decay channels (electron, muon) with 2, 3, or 4+ jets detected. Finally, the variable selections in the electron and muon channels induced by the re-arranging procedure for homogeneity testing are provided for Tevatron top-antitop quark data sets.

  16. Improving breast cancer classification with mammography, supported on an appropriate variable selection analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez, Noel; Guevara, Miguel A.; Silva, Augusto

    2013-02-01

    This work addresses the issue of variable selection within the context of breast cancer classification with mammography. A comprehensive repository of feature vectors was used including a hybrid subset gathering image-based and clinical features. It aimed to gather experimental evidence of variable selection in terms of cardinality, type and find a classification scheme that provides the best performance over the Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve (AUC) scores using the ranked features subset. We evaluated and classified a total of 300 subsets of features formed by the application of Chi-Square Discretization, Information-Gain, One-Rule and RELIEF methods in association with Feed-Forward Backpropagation Neural Network (FFBP), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Decision Tree J48 (DTJ48) Machine Learning Algorithms (MLA) for a comparative performance evaluation based on AUC scores. A variable selection analysis was performed for Single-View Ranking and Multi-View Ranking groups of features. Features subsets representing Microcalcifications (MCs), Masses and both MCs and Masses lesions achieved AUC scores of 0.91, 0.954 and 0.934 respectively. Experimental evidence demonstrated that classification performance was improved by combining image-based and clinical features. The most important clinical and image-based features were StromaDistortion and Circularity respectively. Other less important but worth to use due to its consistency were Contrast, Perimeter, Microcalcification, Correlation and Elongation.

  17. The XRF spectrometer and the selection of analysis conditions (instrumental variables)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willis, J.P.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: This presentation will begin with a brief discussion of EDXRF and flat- and curved-crystal WDXRF spectrometers, contrasting the major differences between the three types. The remainder of the presentation will contain a detailed overview of the choice and settings of the many instrumental variables contained in a modern WDXRF spectrometer, and will discuss critically the choices facing the analyst in setting up a WDXRF spectrometer for different elements and applications. In particular it will discuss the choice of tube target (when a choice is possible), the kV and mA settings, tube filters, collimator masks, collimators, analyzing crystals, secondary collimators, detectors, pulse height selection, X-ray path medium (air, nitrogen, vacuum or helium), counting times for peak and background positions and their effect on counting statistics and lower limit of detection (LLD). The use of Figure of Merit (FOM) calculations to objectively choose the best combination of instrumental variables also will be discussed. This presentation will be followed by a shorter session on a subsequent day entitled - A Selection of XRF Conditions - Practical Session, where participants will be given the opportunity to discuss in groups the selection of the best instrumental variables for three very diverse applications. Copyright (2002) Australian X-ray Analytical Association Inc

  18. Selected Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Movements: Empirical evidence from Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Ato Forson

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates and analyzes the long-run equilibrium relationship between the Thai stock Exchange Index (SETI and selected macroeconomic variables using monthly time series data that cover a 20-year period from January 1990 to December 2009. The following macroeconomic variables are included in our analysis: money supply (MS, the consumer price index (CPI, interest rate (IR and the industrial production index (IP (as a proxy for GDP. Our findings prove that the SET Index and the selected macroeconomic variables are cointegrated at I (1 and have a significant equilibrium relationship over the long run. Money supply demonstrates a strong positive relationship with the SET Index over the long run, whereas the industrial production index and consumer price index show negative long-run relationships with the SET Index. Furthermore, in non-equilibrium situations, the error correction mechanism suggests that the consumer price index, industrial production index and money supply each contribute in some way to restore equilibrium. In addition, using Toda and Yamamoto’s augmented Granger causality test, we identify a bi-causal relationship between industrial production and money supply and unilateral causal relationships between CPI and IR, IP and CPI, MS and CPI, and IP and SETI, indicating that all of these variables are sensitive to Thai stock market movements. The policy implications of these findings are also discussed.

  19. Improved Variable Selection Algorithm Using a LASSO-Type Penalty, with an Application to Assessing Hepatitis B Infection Relevant Factors in Community Residents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Pi; Zeng, Fangfang; Hu, Xiaomin; Zhang, Dingmei; Zhu, Shuming; Deng, Yu; Hao, Yuantao

    2015-01-01

    Objectives In epidemiological studies, it is important to identify independent associations between collective exposures and a health outcome. The current stepwise selection technique ignores stochastic errors and suffers from a lack of stability. The alternative LASSO-penalized regression model can be applied to detect significant predictors from a pool of candidate variables. However, this technique is prone to false positives and tends to create excessive biases. It remains challenging to develop robust variable selection methods and enhance predictability. Material and methods Two improved algorithms denoted the two-stage hybrid and bootstrap ranking procedures, both using a LASSO-type penalty, were developed for epidemiological association analysis. The performance of the proposed procedures and other methods including conventional LASSO, Bolasso, stepwise and stability selection models were evaluated using intensive simulation. In addition, methods were compared by using an empirical analysis based on large-scale survey data of hepatitis B infection-relevant factors among Guangdong residents. Results The proposed procedures produced comparable or less biased selection results when compared to conventional variable selection models. In total, the two newly proposed procedures were stable with respect to various scenarios of simulation, demonstrating a higher power and a lower false positive rate during variable selection than the compared methods. In empirical analysis, the proposed procedures yielding a sparse set of hepatitis B infection-relevant factors gave the best predictive performance and showed that the procedures were able to select a more stringent set of factors. The individual history of hepatitis B vaccination, family and individual history of hepatitis B infection were associated with hepatitis B infection in the studied residents according to the proposed procedures. Conclusions The newly proposed procedures improve the identification of

  20. A spatio-temporal nonparametric Bayesian variable selection model of fMRI data for clustering correlated time courses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Linlin; Guindani, Michele; Versace, Francesco; Vannucci, Marina

    2014-07-15

    In this paper we present a novel wavelet-based Bayesian nonparametric regression model for the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Our goal is to provide a joint analytical framework that allows to detect regions of the brain which exhibit neuronal activity in response to a stimulus and, simultaneously, infer the association, or clustering, of spatially remote voxels that exhibit fMRI time series with similar characteristics. We start by modeling the data with a hemodynamic response function (HRF) with a voxel-dependent shape parameter. We detect regions of the brain activated in response to a given stimulus by using mixture priors with a spike at zero on the coefficients of the regression model. We account for the complex spatial correlation structure of the brain by using a Markov random field (MRF) prior on the parameters guiding the selection of the activated voxels, therefore capturing correlation among nearby voxels. In order to infer association of the voxel time courses, we assume correlated errors, in particular long memory, and exploit the whitening properties of discrete wavelet transforms. Furthermore, we achieve clustering of the voxels by imposing a Dirichlet process (DP) prior on the parameters of the long memory process. For inference, we use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques that combine Metropolis-Hastings schemes employed in Bayesian variable selection with sampling algorithms for nonparametric DP models. We explore the performance of the proposed model on simulated data, with both block- and event-related design, and on real fMRI data. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. An Objective Screening Method for Major Depressive Disorder Using Logistic Regression Analysis of Heart Rate Variability Data Obtained in a Mental Task Paradigm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guanghao Sun

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Heart rate variability (HRV has been intensively studied as a promising biological marker of major depressive disorder (MDD. Our previous study confirmed that autonomic activity and reactivity in depression revealed by HRV during rest and mental task (MT conditions can be used as diagnostic measures and in clinical evaluation. In this study, logistic regression analysis (LRA was utilized for the classification and prediction of MDD based on HRV data obtained in an MT paradigm.Methods: Power spectral analysis of HRV on R-R intervals before, during, and after an MT (random number generation was performed in 44 drug-naïve patients with MDD and 47 healthy control subjects at Department of Psychiatry in Shizuoka Saiseikai General Hospital. Logit scores of LRA determined by HRV indices and heart rates discriminated patients with MDD from healthy subjects. The high frequency (HF component of HRV and the ratio of the low frequency (LF component to the HF component (LF/HF correspond to parasympathetic and sympathovagal balance, respectively.Results: The LRA achieved a sensitivity and specificity of 80.0% and 79.0%, respectively, at an optimum cutoff logit score (0.28. Misclassifications occurred only when the logit score was close to the cutoff score. Logit scores also correlated significantly with subjective self-rating depression scale scores (p < 0.05.Conclusion: HRV indices recorded during a mental task may be an objective tool for screening patients with MDD in psychiatric practice. The proposed method appears promising for not only objective and rapid MDD screening, but also evaluation of its severity.

  2. Classification and quantitation of milk powder by near-infrared spectroscopy and mutual information-based variable selection and partial least squares

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hui; Tan, Chao; Lin, Zan; Wu, Tong

    2018-01-01

    Milk is among the most popular nutrient source worldwide, which is of great interest due to its beneficial medicinal properties. The feasibility of the classification of milk powder samples with respect to their brands and the determination of protein concentration is investigated by NIR spectroscopy along with chemometrics. Two datasets were prepared for experiment. One contains 179 samples of four brands for classification and the other contains 30 samples for quantitative analysis. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used for exploratory analysis. Based on an effective model-independent variable selection method, i.e., minimal-redundancy maximal-relevance (MRMR), only 18 variables were selected to construct a partial least-square discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) model. On the test set, the PLS-DA model based on the selected variable set was compared with the full-spectrum PLS-DA model, both of which achieved 100% accuracy. In quantitative analysis, the partial least-square regression (PLSR) model constructed by the selected subset of 260 variables outperforms significantly the full-spectrum model. It seems that the combination of NIR spectroscopy, MRMR and PLS-DA or PLSR is a powerful tool for classifying different brands of milk and determining the protein content.

  3. The Use of Variable Q1 Isolation Windows Improves Selectivity in LC-SWATH-MS Acquisition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ying; Bilbao, Aivett; Bruderer, Tobias; Luban, Jeremy; Strambio-De-Castillia, Caterina; Lisacek, Frédérique; Hopfgartner, Gérard; Varesio, Emmanuel

    2015-10-02

    As tryptic peptides and metabolites are not equally distributed along the mass range, the probability of cross fragment ion interference is higher in certain windows when fixed Q1 SWATH windows are applied. We evaluated the benefits of utilizing variable Q1 SWATH windows with regards to selectivity improvement. Variable windows based on equalizing the distribution of either the precursor ion population (PIP) or the total ion current (TIC) within each window were generated by an in-house software, swathTUNER. These two variable Q1 SWATH window strategies outperformed, with respect to quantification and identification, the basic approach using a fixed window width (FIX) for proteomic profiling of human monocyte-derived dendritic cells (MDDCs). Thus, 13.8 and 8.4% additional peptide precursors, which resulted in 13.1 and 10.0% more proteins, were confidently identified by SWATH using the strategy PIP and TIC, respectively, in the MDDC proteomic sample. On the basis of the spectral library purity score, some improvement warranted by variable Q1 windows was also observed, albeit to a lesser extent, in the metabolomic profiling of human urine. We show that the novel concept of "scheduled SWATH" proposed here, which incorporates (i) variable isolation windows and (ii) precursor retention time segmentation further improves both peptide and metabolite identifications.

  4. ACTIVE LEARNING TO OVERCOME SAMPLE SELECTION BIAS: APPLICATION TO PHOTOMETRIC VARIABLE STAR CLASSIFICATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richards, Joseph W.; Starr, Dan L.; Miller, Adam A.; Bloom, Joshua S.; Butler, Nathaniel R.; Berian James, J. [Astronomy Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-7450 (United States); Brink, Henrik [Dark Cosmology Centre, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen O (Denmark); Long, James P.; Rice, John, E-mail: jwrichar@stat.berkeley.edu [Statistics Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-7450 (United States)

    2012-01-10

    Despite the great promise of machine-learning algorithms to classify and predict astrophysical parameters for the vast numbers of astrophysical sources and transients observed in large-scale surveys, the peculiarities of the training data often manifest as strongly biased predictions on the data of interest. Typically, training sets are derived from historical surveys of brighter, more nearby objects than those from more extensive, deeper surveys (testing data). This sample selection bias can cause catastrophic errors in predictions on the testing data because (1) standard assumptions for machine-learned model selection procedures break down and (2) dense regions of testing space might be completely devoid of training data. We explore possible remedies to sample selection bias, including importance weighting, co-training, and active learning (AL). We argue that AL-where the data whose inclusion in the training set would most improve predictions on the testing set are queried for manual follow-up-is an effective approach and is appropriate for many astronomical applications. For a variable star classification problem on a well-studied set of stars from Hipparcos and Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment, AL is the optimal method in terms of error rate on the testing data, beating the off-the-shelf classifier by 3.4% and the other proposed methods by at least 3.0%. To aid with manual labeling of variable stars, we developed a Web interface which allows for easy light curve visualization and querying of external databases. Finally, we apply AL to classify variable stars in the All Sky Automated Survey, finding dramatic improvement in our agreement with the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars, from 65.5% to 79.5%, and a significant increase in the classifier's average confidence for the testing set, from 14.6% to 42.9%, after a few AL iterations.

  5. Social variables exert selective pressures in the evolution and form of primate mimetic musculature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burrows, Anne M; Li, Ly; Waller, Bridget M; Micheletta, Jerome

    2016-04-01

    Mammals use their faces in social interactions more so than any other vertebrates. Primates are an extreme among most mammals in their complex, direct, lifelong social interactions and their frequent use of facial displays is a means of proximate visual communication with conspecifics. The available repertoire of facial displays is primarily controlled by mimetic musculature, the muscles that move the face. The form of these muscles is, in turn, limited by and influenced by phylogenetic inertia but here we use examples, both morphological and physiological, to illustrate the influence that social variables may exert on the evolution and form of mimetic musculature among primates. Ecomorphology is concerned with the adaptive responses of morphology to various ecological variables such as diet, foliage density, predation pressures, and time of day activity. We present evidence that social variables also exert selective pressures on morphology, specifically using mimetic muscles among primates as an example. Social variables include group size, dominance 'style', and mating systems. We present two case studies to illustrate the potential influence of social behavior on adaptive morphology of mimetic musculature in primates: (1) gross morphology of the mimetic muscles around the external ear in closely related species of macaque (Macaca mulatta and Macaca nigra) characterized by varying dominance styles and (2) comparative physiology of the orbicularis oris muscle among select ape species. This muscle is used in both facial displays/expressions and in vocalizations/human speech. We present qualitative observations of myosin fiber-type distribution in this muscle of siamang (Symphalangus syndactylus), chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes), and human to demonstrate the potential influence of visual and auditory communication on muscle physiology. In sum, ecomorphologists should be aware of social selective pressures as well as ecological ones, and that observed morphology might

  6. HEART RATE VARIABILITY CLASSIFICATION USING SADE-ELM CLASSIFIER WITH BAT FEATURE SELECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R Kavitha

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The electrical activity of the human heart is measured by the vital bio medical signal called ECG. This electrocardiogram is employed as a crucial source to gather the diagnostic information of a patient’s cardiopathy. The monitoring function of cardiac disease is diagnosed by documenting and handling the electrocardiogram (ECG impulses. In the recent years many research has been done and developing an enhanced method to identify the risk in the patient’s body condition by processing and analysing the ECG signal. This analysis of the signal helps to find the cardiac abnormalities, arrhythmias, and many other heart problems. ECG signal is processed to detect the variability in heart rhythm; heart rate variability is calculated based on the time interval between heart beats. Heart Rate Variability HRV is measured by the variation in the beat to beat interval. The Heart rate Variability (HRV is an essential aspect to diagnose the properties of the heart. Recent development enhances the potential with the aid of non-linear metrics in reference point with feature selection. In this paper, the fundamental elements are taken from the ECG signal for feature selection process where Bat algorithm is employed for feature selection to predict the best feature and presented to the classifier for accurate classification. The popular machine learning algorithm ELM is taken for classification, integrated with evolutionary algorithm named Self- Adaptive Differential Evolution Extreme Learning Machine SADEELM to improve the reliability of classification. It combines Effective Fuzzy Kohonen clustering network (EFKCN to be able to increase the accuracy of the effect for HRV transmission classification. Hence, it is observed that the experiment carried out unveils that the precision is improved by the SADE-ELM method and concurrently optimizes the computation time.

  7. ACTIVE LEARNING TO OVERCOME SAMPLE SELECTION BIAS: APPLICATION TO PHOTOMETRIC VARIABLE STAR CLASSIFICATION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richards, Joseph W.; Starr, Dan L.; Miller, Adam A.; Bloom, Joshua S.; Butler, Nathaniel R.; Berian James, J.; Brink, Henrik; Long, James P.; Rice, John

    2012-01-01

    Despite the great promise of machine-learning algorithms to classify and predict astrophysical parameters for the vast numbers of astrophysical sources and transients observed in large-scale surveys, the peculiarities of the training data often manifest as strongly biased predictions on the data of interest. Typically, training sets are derived from historical surveys of brighter, more nearby objects than those from more extensive, deeper surveys (testing data). This sample selection bias can cause catastrophic errors in predictions on the testing data because (1) standard assumptions for machine-learned model selection procedures break down and (2) dense regions of testing space might be completely devoid of training data. We explore possible remedies to sample selection bias, including importance weighting, co-training, and active learning (AL). We argue that AL—where the data whose inclusion in the training set would most improve predictions on the testing set are queried for manual follow-up—is an effective approach and is appropriate for many astronomical applications. For a variable star classification problem on a well-studied set of stars from Hipparcos and Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment, AL is the optimal method in terms of error rate on the testing data, beating the off-the-shelf classifier by 3.4% and the other proposed methods by at least 3.0%. To aid with manual labeling of variable stars, we developed a Web interface which allows for easy light curve visualization and querying of external databases. Finally, we apply AL to classify variable stars in the All Sky Automated Survey, finding dramatic improvement in our agreement with the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars, from 65.5% to 79.5%, and a significant increase in the classifier's average confidence for the testing set, from 14.6% to 42.9%, after a few AL iterations.

  8. Active Learning to Overcome Sample Selection Bias: Application to Photometric Variable Star Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Joseph W.; Starr, Dan L.; Brink, Henrik; Miller, Adam A.; Bloom, Joshua S.; Butler, Nathaniel R.; James, J. Berian; Long, James P.; Rice, John

    2012-01-01

    Despite the great promise of machine-learning algorithms to classify and predict astrophysical parameters for the vast numbers of astrophysical sources and transients observed in large-scale surveys, the peculiarities of the training data often manifest as strongly biased predictions on the data of interest. Typically, training sets are derived from historical surveys of brighter, more nearby objects than those from more extensive, deeper surveys (testing data). This sample selection bias can cause catastrophic errors in predictions on the testing data because (1) standard assumptions for machine-learned model selection procedures break down and (2) dense regions of testing space might be completely devoid of training data. We explore possible remedies to sample selection bias, including importance weighting, co-training, and active learning (AL). We argue that AL—where the data whose inclusion in the training set would most improve predictions on the testing set are queried for manual follow-up—is an effective approach and is appropriate for many astronomical applications. For a variable star classification problem on a well-studied set of stars from Hipparcos and Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment, AL is the optimal method in terms of error rate on the testing data, beating the off-the-shelf classifier by 3.4% and the other proposed methods by at least 3.0%. To aid with manual labeling of variable stars, we developed a Web interface which allows for easy light curve visualization and querying of external databases. Finally, we apply AL to classify variable stars in the All Sky Automated Survey, finding dramatic improvement in our agreement with the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars, from 65.5% to 79.5%, and a significant increase in the classifier's average confidence for the testing set, from 14.6% to 42.9%, after a few AL iterations.

  9. Cholinergic enhancement reduces functional connectivity and BOLD variability in visual extrastriate cortex during selective attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricciardi, Emiliano; Handjaras, Giacomo; Bernardi, Giulio; Pietrini, Pietro; Furey, Maura L

    2013-01-01

    Enhancing cholinergic function improves performance on various cognitive tasks and alters neural responses in task specific brain regions. We have hypothesized that the changes in neural activity observed during increased cholinergic function reflect an increase in neural efficiency that leads to improved task performance. The current study tested this hypothesis by assessing neural efficiency based on cholinergically-mediated effects on regional brain connectivity and BOLD signal variability. Nine subjects participated in a double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover fMRI study. Following an infusion of physostigmine (1 mg/h) or placebo, echo-planar imaging (EPI) was conducted as participants performed a selective attention task. During the task, two images comprised of superimposed pictures of faces and houses were presented. Subjects were instructed periodically to shift their attention from one stimulus component to the other and to perform a matching task using hand held response buttons. A control condition included phase-scrambled images of superimposed faces and houses that were presented in the same temporal and spatial manner as the attention task; participants were instructed to perform a matching task. Cholinergic enhancement improved performance during the selective attention task, with no change during the control task. Functional connectivity analyses showed that the strength of connectivity between ventral visual processing areas and task-related occipital, parietal and prefrontal regions reduced significantly during cholinergic enhancement, exclusively during the selective attention task. Physostigmine administration also reduced BOLD signal temporal variability relative to placebo throughout temporal and occipital visual processing areas, again during the selective attention task only. Together with the observed behavioral improvement, the decreases in connectivity strength throughout task-relevant regions and BOLD variability within stimulus

  10. Selection of controlled variables in bioprocesses. Application to a SHARON-Anammox process for autotrophic nitrogen removal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mauricio Iglesias, Miguel; Valverde Perez, Borja; Sin, Gürkan

    Selecting the right controlled variables in a bioprocess is challenging since the objectives of the process (yields, product or substrate concentration) are difficult to relate with a given actuator. We apply here process control tools that can be used to assist in the selection of controlled var...... variables to the case of the SHARON-Anammox process for autotrophic nitrogen removal....

  11. A flow system for generation of concentration perturbation in two-dimensional correlation near-infrared spectroscopy: application to variable selection in multivariate calibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Claudete Fernandes; Pasquini, Celio

    2010-05-01

    A flow system is proposed to produce a concentration perturbation in liquid samples, aiming at the generation of two-dimensional correlation near-infrared spectra. The system presents advantages in relation to batch systems employed for the same purpose: the experiments are accomplished in a closed system; application of perturbation is rapid and easy; and the experiments can be carried out with micro-scale volumes. The perturbation system has been evaluated in the investigation and selection of relevant variables for multivariate calibration models for the determination of quality parameters of gasoline, including ethanol content, MON (motor octane number), and RON (research octane number). The main advantage of this variable selection approach is the direct association between spectral features and chemical composition, allowing easy interpretation of the regression models.

  12. Autistic Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matson, Johnny L.; Kozlowski, Alison M.

    2010-01-01

    Autistic regression is one of the many mysteries in the developmental course of autism and pervasive developmental disorders not otherwise specified (PDD-NOS). Various definitions of this phenomenon have been used, further clouding the study of the topic. Despite this problem, some efforts at establishing prevalence have been made. The purpose of…

  13. Advanced statistics: linear regression, part I: simple linear regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marill, Keith A

    2004-01-01

    Simple linear regression is a mathematical technique used to model the relationship between a single independent predictor variable and a single dependent outcome variable. In this, the first of a two-part series exploring concepts in linear regression analysis, the four fundamental assumptions and the mechanics of simple linear regression are reviewed. The most common technique used to derive the regression line, the method of least squares, is described. The reader will be acquainted with other important concepts in simple linear regression, including: variable transformations, dummy variables, relationship to inference testing, and leverage. Simplified clinical examples with small datasets and graphic models are used to illustrate the points. This will provide a foundation for the second article in this series: a discussion of multiple linear regression, in which there are multiple predictor variables.

  14. Effects of selected design variables on three ramp, external compression inlet performance. [boundary layer control bypasses, and mass flow rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamman, J. H.; Hall, C. L.

    1975-01-01

    Two inlet performance tests and one inlet/airframe drag test were conducted in 1969 at the NASA-Ames Research Center. The basic inlet system was two-dimensional, three ramp (overhead), external compression, with variable capture area. The data from these tests were analyzed to show the effects of selected design variables on the performance of this type of inlet system. The inlet design variables investigated include inlet bleed, bypass, operating mass flow ratio, inlet geometry, and variable capture area.

  15. Extreme precipitation variability, forage quality and large herbivore diet selection in arid environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cain, James W.; Gedir, Jay V.; Marshal, Jason P.; Krausman, Paul R.; Allen, Jamison D.; Duff, Glenn C.; Jansen, Brian; Morgart, John R.

    2017-01-01

    Nutritional ecology forms the interface between environmental variability and large herbivore behaviour, life history characteristics, and population dynamics. Forage conditions in arid and semi-arid regions are driven by unpredictable spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall. Diet selection by herbivores should be directed towards overcoming the most pressing nutritional limitation (i.e. energy, protein [nitrogen, N], moisture) within the constraints imposed by temporal and spatial variability in forage conditions. We investigated the influence of precipitation-induced shifts in forage nutritional quality and subsequent large herbivore responses across widely varying precipitation conditions in an arid environment. Specifically, we assessed seasonal changes in diet breadth and forage selection of adult female desert bighorn sheep Ovis canadensis mexicana in relation to potential nutritional limitations in forage N, moisture and energy content (as proxied by dry matter digestibility, DMD). Succulents were consistently high in moisture but low in N and grasses were low in N and moisture until the wet period. Nitrogen and moisture content of shrubs and forbs varied among seasons and climatic periods, whereas trees had consistently high N and moderate moisture levels. Shrubs, trees and succulents composed most of the seasonal sheep diets but had little variation in DMD. Across all seasons during drought and during summer with average precipitation, forages selected by sheep were higher in N and moisture than that of available forage. Differences in DMD between sheep diets and available forage were minor. Diet breadth was lowest during drought and increased with precipitation, reflecting a reliance on few key forage species during drought. Overall, forage selection was more strongly associated with N and moisture content than energy content. Our study demonstrates that unlike north-temperate ungulates which are generally reported to be energy-limited, N and moisture

  16. Using Multivariate Regression Model with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to Predict the Incidence of Xerostomia after Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy for Head and Neck Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ting, Hui-Min; Chang, Liyun; Huang, Yu-Jie; Wu, Jia-Ming; Wang, Hung-Yu; Horng, Mong-Fong; Chang, Chun-Ming; Lan, Jen-Hong; Huang, Ya-Yu; Fang, Fu-Min; Leung, Stephen Wan

    2014-01-01

    Purpose The aim of this study was to develop a multivariate logistic regression model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to make valid predictions about the incidence of moderate-to-severe patient-rated xerostomia among head and neck cancer (HNC) patients treated with IMRT. Methods and Materials Quality of life questionnaire datasets from 206 patients with HNC were analyzed. The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-H&N35 and QLQ-C30 questionnaires were used as the endpoint evaluation. The primary endpoint (grade 3+ xerostomia) was defined as moderate-to-severe xerostomia at 3 (XER3m) and 12 months (XER12m) after the completion of IMRT. Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models were developed. The optimal and suboptimal numbers of prognostic factors for a multivariate logistic regression model were determined using the LASSO with bootstrapping technique. Statistical analysis was performed using the scaled Brier score, Nagelkerke R2, chi-squared test, Omnibus, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the AUC. Results Eight prognostic factors were selected by LASSO for the 3-month time point: Dmean-c, Dmean-i, age, financial status, T stage, AJCC stage, smoking, and education. Nine prognostic factors were selected for the 12-month time point: Dmean-i, education, Dmean-c, smoking, T stage, baseline xerostomia, alcohol abuse, family history, and node classification. In the selection of the suboptimal number of prognostic factors by LASSO, three suboptimal prognostic factors were fine-tuned by Hosmer-Lemeshow test and AUC, i.e., Dmean-c, Dmean-i, and age for the 3-month time point. Five suboptimal prognostic factors were also selected for the 12-month time point, i.e., Dmean-i, education, Dmean-c, smoking, and T stage. The overall performance for both time points of the NTCP model in terms of scaled Brier score, Omnibus, and Nagelkerke R2 was satisfactory and corresponded well with the expected values. Conclusions

  17. The relationship between selected variables and customer loyalty within an optometric practice environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Van Vuuren

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of the research that informed this article was to examine the relationship between customer satisfaction, trust, supplier image, commitment and customer loyalty within an optometric practice environment. Problem investigated: Optometric businesses need to adopt their strategies to enhance loyalty, as customer satisfaction is not enough to ensure loyalty and customer retention. An understanding of the variables influencing loyalty could help businesses within the optometric service environment to retain their customers and become more profitable. Methodology: The methodological approach followed was exploratory and quantitative in nature. The sample consisted of 357 customers who visited the practice twice or more over the previous six years. A structured questionnaire, with a five-point Likert scale, was fielded to gather the data. The descriptive and multiple regression analysis approach was used to analyse the results. Collinearity statistics and Pearson's correlation coefficient were also calculated to determine which independent variable has the largest influence on customer loyalty. Findings and implications: The main finding is that customer satisfaction had the highest correlation with customer loyalty. The other independent variables, however, also appear to significantly influence customer loyalty within an optometric practice environment. The implication is that optometric practices need to focus on customer satisfaction, trust, supplier image and commitment when addressing the improvement of customer loyalty. Originality and value of the research: The article contributes to the improvement of customer loyalty within a service business environment that could assist in facilitating larger market share, higher customer retention and greater profitability for the business over the long term.

  18. Impact of perennial energy crops income variability on the crop selection of risk averse farmers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, Peter; Moran, Dominic

    2013-01-01

    The UK Government policy is for the area of perennial energy crops in the UK to expand significantly. Farmers need to choose these crops in preference to conventional rotations for this to be achievable. This paper looks at the potential level and variability of perennial energy crop incomes and the relation to incomes from conventional arable crops. Assuming energy crop prices are correlated to oil prices the results suggests that incomes from them are not well correlated to conventional arable crop incomes. A farm scale mathematical programming model is then used to attempt to understand the affect on risk averse farmers crop selection. The inclusion of risk reduces the energy crop price required for the selection of these crops. However yields towards the highest of those predicted in the UK are still required to make them an optimal choice, suggesting only a small area of energy crops within the UK would be expected to be chosen to be grown. This must be regarded as a tentative conclusion, primarily due to high sensitivity found to crop yields, resulting in the proposal for further work to apply the model using spatially disaggregated data. - Highlights: ► Energy crop and conventional crop incomes suggested as uncorrelated. ► Diversification effect of energy crops investigated for a risk averse farmer. ► Energy crops indicated as optimal selection only on highest yielding UK sites. ► Large establishment grant rates to substantially alter crop selections.

  19. Prediction of Placental Barrier Permeability: A Model Based on Partial Least Squares Variable Selection Procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong-Hong Zhang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Assessing the human placental barrier permeability of drugs is very important to guarantee drug safety during pregnancy. Quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR method was used as an effective assessing tool for the placental transfer study of drugs, while in vitro human placental perfusion is the most widely used method. In this study, the partial least squares (PLS variable selection and modeling procedure was used to pick out optimal descriptors from a pool of 620 descriptors of 65 compounds and to simultaneously develop a QSAR model between the descriptors and the placental barrier permeability expressed by the clearance indices (CI. The model was subjected to internal validation by cross-validation and y-randomization and to external validation by predicting CI values of 19 compounds. It was shown that the model developed is robust and has a good predictive potential (r2 = 0.9064, RMSE = 0.09, q2 = 0.7323, rp2 = 0.7656, RMSP = 0.14. The mechanistic interpretation of the final model was given by the high variable importance in projection values of descriptors. Using PLS procedure, we can rapidly and effectively select optimal descriptors and thus construct a model with good stability and predictability. This analysis can provide an effective tool for the high-throughput screening of the placental barrier permeability of drugs.

  20. Locating disease genes using Bayesian variable selection with the Haseman-Elston method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    He Qimei

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We applied stochastic search variable selection (SSVS, a Bayesian model selection method, to the simulated data of Genetic Analysis Workshop 13. We used SSVS with the revisited Haseman-Elston method to find the markers linked to the loci determining change in cholesterol over time. To study gene-gene interaction (epistasis and gene-environment interaction, we adopted prior structures, which incorporate the relationship among the predictors. This allows SSVS to search in the model space more efficiently and avoid the less likely models. Results In applying SSVS, instead of looking at the posterior distribution of each of the candidate models, which is sensitive to the setting of the prior, we ranked the candidate variables (markers according to their marginal posterior probability, which was shown to be more robust to the prior. Compared with traditional methods that consider one marker at a time, our method considers all markers simultaneously and obtains more favorable results. Conclusions We showed that SSVS is a powerful method for identifying linked markers using the Haseman-Elston method, even for weak effects. SSVS is very effective because it does a smart search over the entire model space.

  1. A fast chaos-based image encryption scheme with a dynamic state variables selection mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jun-xin; Zhu, Zhi-liang; Fu, Chong; Yu, Hai; Zhang, Li-bo

    2015-03-01

    In recent years, a variety of chaos-based image cryptosystems have been investigated to meet the increasing demand for real-time secure image transmission. Most of them are based on permutation-diffusion architecture, in which permutation and diffusion are two independent procedures with fixed control parameters. This property results in two flaws. (1) At least two chaotic state variables are required for encrypting one plain pixel, in permutation and diffusion stages respectively. Chaotic state variables produced with high computation complexity are not sufficiently used. (2) The key stream solely depends on the secret key, and hence the cryptosystem is vulnerable against known/chosen-plaintext attacks. In this paper, a fast chaos-based image encryption scheme with a dynamic state variables selection mechanism is proposed to enhance the security and promote the efficiency of chaos-based image cryptosystems. Experimental simulations and extensive cryptanalysis have been carried out and the results prove the superior security and high efficiency of the scheme.

  2. An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Supplemental Instruction: The Problem of Selection Bias and Limited Dependent Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, Tyler J.; Jones, Jason

    2004-01-01

    Single equation regression models have been used rather extensively to test the effectiveness of Supplemental Instruction (SI). This approach, however, fails to account for the possibility that SI attendance and the outcome of SI attendance are jointly determined endogenous variables. Moreover, the standard approach fails to account for the fact…

  3. On Weighted Support Vector Regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Han, Xixuan; Clemmensen, Line Katrine Harder

    2014-01-01

    We propose a new type of weighted support vector regression (SVR), motivated by modeling local dependencies in time and space in prediction of house prices. The classic weights of the weighted SVR are added to the slack variables in the objective function (OF‐weights). This procedure directly...... shrinks the coefficient of each observation in the estimated functions; thus, it is widely used for minimizing influence of outliers. We propose to additionally add weights to the slack variables in the constraints (CF‐weights) and call the combination of weights the doubly weighted SVR. We illustrate...... the differences and similarities of the two types of weights by demonstrating the connection between the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and the SVR. We show that an SVR problem can be transformed to a LASSO problem plus a linear constraint and a box constraint. We demonstrate...

  4. Consequences of kriging and land use regression for PM2.5 predictions in epidemiologic analyses: insights into spatial variability using high-resolution satellite data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexeeff, Stacey E; Schwartz, Joel; Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A

    2015-01-01

    Many epidemiological studies use predicted air pollution exposures as surrogates for true air pollution levels. These predicted exposures contain exposure measurement error, yet simulation studies have typically found negligible bias in resulting health effect estimates. However, previous studies typically assumed a statistical spatial model for air pollution exposure, which may be oversimplified. We address this shortcoming by assuming a realistic, complex exposure surface derived from fine-scale (1 km × 1 km) remote-sensing satellite data. Using simulation, we evaluate the accuracy of epidemiological health effect estimates in linear and logistic regression when using spatial air pollution predictions from kriging and land use regression models. We examined chronic (long-term) and acute (short-term) exposure to air pollution. Results varied substantially across different scenarios. Exposure models with low out-of-sample R(2) yielded severe biases in the health effect estimates of some models, ranging from 60% upward bias to 70% downward bias. One land use regression exposure model with >0.9 out-of-sample R(2) yielded upward biases up to 13% for acute health effect estimates. Almost all models drastically underestimated the SEs. Land use regression models performed better in chronic effect simulations. These results can help researchers when interpreting health effect estimates in these types of studies.

  5. Bounded Gaussian process regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Nielsen, Jens Brehm; Larsen, Jan

    2013-01-01

    We extend the Gaussian process (GP) framework for bounded regression by introducing two bounded likelihood functions that model the noise on the dependent variable explicitly. This is fundamentally different from the implicit noise assumption in the previously suggested warped GP framework. We...... with the proposed explicit noise-model extension....

  6. Assessment of acute pesticide toxicity with selected biochemical variables in suicide attempting subjects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soomro, A.M.; Seehar, G.M.; Bhanger, M.I.

    2003-01-01

    Pesticide induced changes were assessed in thirty two subjects of attempted suicide cases. Among all, the farmers and their families were recorded as most frequently suicide attempting. The values obtained from seven biochemical variables of 29 years old (average age) hospitalized subjects were compared to the same number and age matched normal volunteers. The results revealed major differences in the mean values of the selected parameters. The mean difference calculate; alkaline phosphatase (178.7 mu/l), Bilirubin (7.5 mg/dl), GPT (59.2 mu/l) and glucose (38.6 mg/dl) were higher than the controls, which indicate the hepatotoxicity induced by the pesticides in suicide attempting individuals. Increase in serum creatinine and urea indicated renal malfunction that could be linked with pesticide induced nephrotoxicity among them. (author)

  7. VARIABILITY OF AMYLOSE AND AMYLOPECTIN IN WINTER WHEAT AND SELECTION FOR SPECIAL PURPOSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolina Weg Krstičević

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate the variability of amylose and amylopectin in 24 Croatian and six foreign winter wheat varieties and to detect the potential of these varieties for special purposes. Starch composition analysis was based on the separation of amylose and amylopectin and the determination of their amounts and ratios. Analysis of the amount of amylose and amylopectin determined statistically highly significant differences between the varieties. The tested varieties are mostly bread wheat of different quality which have the usual content of amylose and amylopectin. Some varieties were identified among them with high amylopectin and low amylose content and one variety with high amylose content. They have the potential in future breeding programs and selection for special purposes.

  8. [Application of characteristic NIR variables selection in portable detection of soluble solids content of apple by near infrared spectroscopy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Shu-Xiang; Huang, Wen-Qian; Li, Jiang-Bo; Guo, Zhi-Ming; Zhaq, Chun-Jiang

    2014-10-01

    In order to detect the soluble solids content(SSC)of apple conveniently and rapidly, a ring fiber probe and a portable spectrometer were applied to obtain the spectroscopy of apple. Different wavelength variable selection methods, including unin- formative variable elimination (UVE), competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (CARS) and genetic algorithm (GA) were pro- posed to select effective wavelength variables of the NIR spectroscopy of the SSC in apple based on PLS. The back interval LS- SVM (BiLS-SVM) and GA were used to select effective wavelength variables based on LS-SVM. Selected wavelength variables and full wavelength range were set as input variables of PLS model and LS-SVM model, respectively. The results indicated that PLS model built using GA-CARS on 50 characteristic variables selected from full-spectrum which had 1512 wavelengths achieved the optimal performance. The correlation coefficient (Rp) and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) for prediction sets were 0.962, 0.403°Brix respectively for SSC. The proposed method of GA-CARS could effectively simplify the portable detection model of SSC in apple based on near infrared spectroscopy and enhance the predictive precision. The study can provide a reference for the development of portable apple soluble solids content spectrometer.

  9. Is DAS28-CRP with three and four variables interchangeable in individual patients selected for biological treatment in daily clinical practice?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Ole Rintek

    2011-01-01

    DAS28 is a widely used composite score for the assessment of disease activity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and is often used as a treatment decision tool in the daily clinic. Different versions of DAS28 are available. DAS28-CRP(3) is calculated based on three variables: swollen...... and tender joint counts and CRP. DAS28-CRP(4) also includes patient global assessment. Thresholds for low and high disease activity are the same for the two scores. Based on the Bland-Altman method, the interchangeability between DAS28-CRP with three and four variables was examined in 319 RA patients...... selected for initiating biological treatment. Data were extracted from the Danish registry for biological treatment in rheumatology (DANBIO). Multiple regression analysis was used to assess the predictability of the DAS28 scores by several measures of disease activity. The overall mean DAS28-CRP was 4...

  10. Bayesian variable selection for post-analytic interrogation of susceptibility loci.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Siying; Nunez, Sara; Reilly, Muredach P; Foulkes, Andrea S

    2017-06-01

    Understanding the complex interplay among protein coding genes and regulatory elements requires rigorous interrogation with analytic tools designed for discerning the relative contributions of overlapping genomic regions. To this aim, we offer a novel application of Bayesian variable selection (BVS) for classifying genomic class level associations using existing large meta-analysis summary level resources. This approach is applied using the expectation maximization variable selection (EMVS) algorithm to typed and imputed SNPs across 502 protein coding genes (PCGs) and 220 long intergenic non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) that overlap 45 known loci for coronary artery disease (CAD) using publicly available Global Lipids Gentics Consortium (GLGC) (Teslovich et al., 2010; Willer et al., 2013) meta-analysis summary statistics for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). The analysis reveals 33 PCGs and three lncRNAs across 11 loci with >50% posterior probabilities for inclusion in an additive model of association. The findings are consistent with previous reports, while providing some new insight into the architecture of LDL-cholesterol to be investigated further. As genomic taxonomies continue to evolve, additional classes such as enhancer elements and splicing regions, can easily be layered into the proposed analysis framework. Moreover, application of this approach to alternative publicly available meta-analysis resources, or more generally as a post-analytic strategy to further interrogate regions that are identified through single point analysis, is straightforward. All coding examples are implemented in R version 3.2.1 and provided as supplemental material. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  11. ANYOLS, Least Square Fit by Stepwise Regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwoods, C.L.; Mathews, S.

    1986-01-01

    Description of program or function: ANYOLS is a stepwise program which fits data using ordinary or weighted least squares. Variables are selected for the model in a stepwise way based on a user- specified input criterion or a user-written subroutine. The order in which variables are entered can be influenced by user-defined forcing priorities. Instead of stepwise selection, ANYOLS can try all possible combinations of any desired subset of the variables. Automatic output for the final model in a stepwise search includes plots of the residuals, 'studentized' residuals, and leverages; if the model is not too large, the output also includes partial regression and partial leverage plots. A data set may be re-used so that several selection criteria can be tried. Flexibility is increased by allowing the substitution of user-written subroutines for several default subroutines

  12. INDUCED GENETIC VARIABILITY AND SELECTION FOR HIGH YIELDING MUTANTS IN BREAD WHEAT(TRITICUM AESTIVUM L.)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SOBIEH, S.EL-S.S.

    2007-01-01

    This study was conducted during the two winter seasons of 2004/2005 and 2005/2006 at the experimental farm belonging to Plant Research Department, Nuclear Research Centre, AEA, Egypt.The aim of this study is to determine the effect of gamma rays(150, 200 and 250 Gy) on means of yield and its attributes for exotic wheat variety (vir-25) and induction of genetic variability that permits to perform visual selection through the irradiated populations, as well as to determine difference in seed protein patterns between vir-25 parent variety and some selectants in M2 generation.The results showed that the different doses of gamma rays had non-significant effect on mean value of yield/plant and significant effect on mean values of it's attributes. 0n the other hand, the considered genetic variability was generated as result of applying gamma irradiation. The highest amount of induced genetic variability was detected for number of grains/ spike, spike length and number of spikes/plant. Additionally, these three traits exhibited strong association with grain yield/plant, hence, they were used as a criterion for selection.Some variant plants were selected from radiation treatment 250 Gy, with 2-10 spikes per plant.These variant plants exhibited increasing in spike length and number of gains/spike.The results also revealed that protein electrophoresis were varied in the number and position of bands from genotype to another and various genotypes share bands with molecular weights 31.4 and 3.2 KD.Many bands were found to be specific for the genotype and the nine wheat mutants were characterized by the presence of bands of molecular weights: 151.9, 125.7, 14.1 and 5.7 KD at M-167.4, 21.7 and 8.2 at M-299.7 KD at M-3136.1, 97.6, 49.8, 27.9 and 20.6 KD at M-4 135.2, 95.3 and 28.1 KD at M-5 135.5, 67.7, 47.1, 32.3, 21.9 and 9.6 KD at M-6 126.1, 112.1, 103.3, 58.8, 20.9 and 12.1 KD at M-7 127.7, 116.6, 93.9, 55.0 and 47.4 KD at M-8 141.7, 96.1, 79.8, 68.9, 42.1, 32.7, 22.0 and 13

  13. The impact of selected organizational variables and managerial leadership on radiation therapists' organizational commitment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akroyd, Duane; Legg, Jeff; Jackowski, Melissa B.; Adams, Robert D.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of selected organizational factors and the leadership behavior of supervisors on radiation therapists' commitment to their organizations. The population for this study consists of all full time clinical radiation therapists registered by the American Registry of Radiologic Technologists (ARRT) in the United States. A random sample of 800 radiation therapists was obtained from the ARRT for this study. Questionnaires were mailed to all participants and measured organizational variables; managerial leadership variable and three components of organizational commitment (affective, continuance and normative). It was determined that organizational support, and leadership behavior of supervisors each had a significant and positive affect on normative and affective commitment of radiation therapists and each of the models predicted over 40% of the variance in radiation therapists organizational commitment. This study examined radiation therapists' commitment to their organizations and found that affective (emotional attachment to the organization) and normative (feelings of obligation to the organization) commitments were more important than continuance commitment (awareness of the costs of leaving the organization). This study can help radiation oncology administrators and physicians to understand the values their radiation therapy employees hold that are predictive of their commitment to the organization. A crucial result of the study is the importance of the perceived support of the organization and the leadership skills of managers/supervisors on radiation therapists' commitment to the organization.

  14. The impact of selected organizational variables and managerial leadership on radiation therapists' organizational commitment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akroyd, Duane [Department of Adult and Community College Education, College of Education, Campus Box 7801, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)], E-mail: duane_akroyd@ncsu.edu; Legg, Jeff [Department of Radiologic Sciences, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284 (United States); Jackowski, Melissa B. [Division of Radiologic Sciences, University of North Carolina School of Medicine 27599 (United States); Adams, Robert D. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of North Carolina School of Medicine 27599 (United States)

    2009-05-15

    The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of selected organizational factors and the leadership behavior of supervisors on radiation therapists' commitment to their organizations. The population for this study consists of all full time clinical radiation therapists registered by the American Registry of Radiologic Technologists (ARRT) in the United States. A random sample of 800 radiation therapists was obtained from the ARRT for this study. Questionnaires were mailed to all participants and measured organizational variables; managerial leadership variable and three components of organizational commitment (affective, continuance and normative). It was determined that organizational support, and leadership behavior of supervisors each had a significant and positive affect on normative and affective commitment of radiation therapists and each of the models predicted over 40% of the variance in radiation therapists organizational commitment. This study examined radiation therapists' commitment to their organizations and found that affective (emotional attachment to the organization) and normative (feelings of obligation to the organization) commitments were more important than continuance commitment (awareness of the costs of leaving the organization). This study can help radiation oncology administrators and physicians to understand the values their radiation therapy employees hold that are predictive of their commitment to the organization. A crucial result of the study is the importance of the perceived support of the organization and the leadership skills of managers/supervisors on radiation therapists' commitment to the organization.

  15. Spatially variable natural selection and the divergence between parapatric subspecies of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta, Pinaceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckert, Andrew J; Shahi, Hurshbir; Datwyler, Shannon L; Neale, David B

    2012-08-01

    Plant populations arrayed across sharp environmental gradients are ideal systems for identifying the genetic basis of ecologically relevant phenotypes. A series of five uplifted marine terraces along the northern coast of California represents one such system where morphologically distinct populations of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) are distributed across sharp soil gradients ranging from fertile soils near the coast to podzolic soils ca. 5 km inland. A total of 92 trees was sampled across four coastal marine terraces (N = 10-46 trees/terrace) located in Mendocino County, California and sequenced for a set of 24 candidate genes for growth and responses to various soil chemistry variables. Statistical analyses relying on patterns of nucleotide diversity were employed to identify genes whose diversity patterns were inconsistent with three null models. Most genes displayed patterns of nucleotide diversity that were consistent with null models (N = 19) or with the presence of paralogs (N = 3). Two genes, however, were exceptional: an aluminum responsive ABC-transporter with F(ST) = 0.664 and an inorganic phosphate transporter characterized by divergent haplotypes segregating at intermediate frequencies in most populations. Spatially variable natural selection along gradients of aluminum and phosphate ion concentrations likely accounted for both outliers. These results shed light on some of the genetic components comprising the extended phenotype of this ecosystem, as well as highlight ecotones as fruitful study systems for the detection of adaptive genetic variants.

  16. Repeat what after whom? Exploring variable selectivity in a cross-dialectal shadowing task.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abby eWalker

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Twenty women from Christchurch, New Zealand and sixteen from Columbus Ohio (dialect region U.S. Midland participated in a bimodal lexical naming task where they repeated monosyllabic words after four speakers from four regional dialects: New Zealand, Australia, U.S. Inland North and U.S. Midland. The resulting utterances were acoustically analyzed, and presented to listeners on Amazon Mechanical Turk in an AXB task. Convergence is observed, but differs depending on the dialect of the speaker, the dialect of the model, the particular word class being shadowed, and the order in which dialects are presented to participants. We argue that these patterns are generally consistent with findings that convergence is promoted by a large phonetic distance between shadower and model (Babel, 2010, contra Kim, Horton & Bradlow, 2011, and greater existing variability in a vowel class (Babel, 2012. The results also suggest that more comparisons of accommodation towards different dialects are warranted, and that the investigation of the socio-indexical meaning of specific linguistic forms in context is a promising avenue for understanding variable selectivity in convergence.

  17. Comparison of Three Plot Selection Methods for Estimating Change in Temporally Variable, Spatially Clustered Populations.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, William L. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (US). Environment, Fish and Wildlife

    2001-07-01

    Monitoring population numbers is important for assessing trends and meeting various legislative mandates. However, sampling across time introduces a temporal aspect to survey design in addition to the spatial one. For instance, a sample that is initially representative may lose this attribute if there is a shift in numbers and/or spatial distribution in the underlying population that is not reflected in later sampled plots. Plot selection methods that account for this temporal variability will produce the best trend estimates. Consequently, I used simulation to compare bias and relative precision of estimates of population change among stratified and unstratified sampling designs based on permanent, temporary, and partial replacement plots under varying levels of spatial clustering, density, and temporal shifting of populations. Permanent plots produced more precise estimates of change than temporary plots across all factors. Further, permanent plots performed better than partial replacement plots except for high density (5 and 10 individuals per plot) and 25% - 50% shifts in the population. Stratified designs always produced less precise estimates of population change for all three plot selection methods, and often produced biased change estimates and greatly inflated variance estimates under sampling with partial replacement. Hence, stratification that remains fixed across time should be avoided when monitoring populations that are likely to exhibit large changes in numbers and/or spatial distribution during the study period. Key words: bias; change estimation; monitoring; permanent plots; relative precision; sampling with partial replacement; temporary plots.

  18. Construct-level predictive validity of educational attainment and intellectual aptitude tests in medical student selection: meta-regression of six UK longitudinal studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Measures used for medical student selection should predict future performance during training. A problem for any selection study is that predictor-outcome correlations are known only in those who have been selected, whereas selectors need to know how measures would predict in the entire pool of applicants. That problem of interpretation can be solved by calculating construct-level predictive validity, an estimate of true predictor-outcome correlation across the range of applicant abilities. Methods Construct-level predictive validities were calculated in six cohort studies of medical student selection and training (student entry, 1972 to 2009) for a range of predictors, including A-levels, General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs)/O-levels, and aptitude tests (AH5 and UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT)). Outcomes included undergraduate basic medical science and finals assessments, as well as postgraduate measures of Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom (MRCP(UK)) performance and entry in the Specialist Register. Construct-level predictive validity was calculated with the method of Hunter, Schmidt and Le (2006), adapted to correct for right-censorship of examination results due to grade inflation. Results Meta-regression analyzed 57 separate predictor-outcome correlations (POCs) and construct-level predictive validities (CLPVs). Mean CLPVs are substantially higher (.450) than mean POCs (.171). Mean CLPVs for first-year examinations, were high for A-levels (.809; CI: .501 to .935), and lower for GCSEs/O-levels (.332; CI: .024 to .583) and UKCAT (mean = .245; CI: .207 to .276). A-levels had higher CLPVs for all undergraduate and postgraduate assessments than did GCSEs/O-levels and intellectual aptitude tests. CLPVs of educational attainment measures decline somewhat during training, but continue to predict postgraduate performance. Intellectual aptitude tests have lower CLPVs than A-levels or GCSEs

  19. Regression in organizational leadership.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kernberg, O F

    1979-02-01

    The choice of good leaders is a major task for all organizations. Inforamtion regarding the prospective administrator's personality should complement questions regarding his previous experience, his general conceptual skills, his technical knowledge, and the specific skills in the area for which he is being selected. The growing psychoanalytic knowledge about the crucial importance of internal, in contrast to external, object relations, and about the mutual relationships of regression in individuals and in groups, constitutes an important practical tool for the selection of leaders.

  20. From Rasch scores to regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Karl Bang

    2006-01-01

    Rasch models provide a framework for measurement and modelling latent variables. Having measured a latent variable in a population a comparison of groups will often be of interest. For this purpose the use of observed raw scores will often be inadequate because these lack interval scale propertie....... This paper compares two approaches to group comparison: linear regression models using estimated person locations as outcome variables and latent regression models based on the distribution of the score....

  1. Analysis of variability in multi-day GPS imputed activity-travel diaries using multi-dimensional sequence alignment and panel effects regression models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xianyu, J.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    The use of GPS devices and smartphones has made feasible the collection of multi-day activity-travel diaries. In turn, the availability of multi-day travel diary data opens up new avenues for analyzing dynamics of individual travel behavior. This paper addresses the issue of day-to-day variability

  2. Benchmarking the Cost per Person of Mass Treatment for Selected Neglected Tropical Diseases: An Approach Based on Literature Review and Meta-regression with Web-Based Software Application.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Fitzpatrick

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Advocacy around mass treatment for the elimination of selected Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs has typically put the cost per person treated at less than US$ 0.50. Whilst useful for advocacy, the focus on a single number misrepresents the complexity of delivering "free" donated medicines to about a billion people across the world. We perform a literature review and meta-regression of the cost per person per round of mass treatment against NTDs. We develop a web-based software application (https://healthy.shinyapps.io/benchmark/ to calculate setting-specific unit costs against which programme budgets and expenditures or results-based pay-outs can be benchmarked.We reviewed costing studies of mass treatment for the control, elimination or eradication of lymphatic filariasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma and yaws. These are the main 6 NTDs for which mass treatment is recommended. We extracted financial and economic unit costs, adjusted to a standard definition and base year. We regressed unit costs on the number of people treated and other explanatory variables. Regression results were used to "predict" country-specific unit cost benchmarks.We reviewed 56 costing studies and included in the meta-regression 34 studies from 23 countries and 91 sites. Unit costs were found to be very sensitive to economies of scale, and the decision of whether or not to use local volunteers. Financial unit costs are expected to be less than 2015 US$ 0.50 in most countries for programmes that treat 100 thousand people or more. However, for smaller programmes, including those in the "last mile", or those that cannot rely on local volunteers, both economic and financial unit costs are expected to be higher.The available evidence confirms that mass treatment offers a low cost public health intervention on the path towards universal health coverage. However, more costing studies focussed on elimination are needed. Unit cost

  3. Collaborative regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Samuel M; Tibshirani, Robert

    2015-04-01

    We consider the scenario where one observes an outcome variable and sets of features from multiple assays, all measured on the same set of samples. One approach that has been proposed for dealing with these type of data is "sparse multiple canonical correlation analysis" (sparse mCCA). All of the current sparse mCCA techniques are biconvex and thus have no guarantees about reaching a global optimum. We propose a method for performing sparse supervised canonical correlation analysis (sparse sCCA), a specific case of sparse mCCA when one of the datasets is a vector. Our proposal for sparse sCCA is convex and thus does not face the same difficulties as the other methods. We derive efficient algorithms for this problem that can be implemented with off the shelf solvers, and illustrate their use on simulated and real data. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Türkiye'nin Turizm Gelirini Etkileyen Değişkenler İçin En Uygun Regresyon Denkleminin Belirlenmesi = Obtaining the Optimum Regression Equation for Variables Which Effects Incoming of Tourism in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cengiz AKTAŞ

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the importance of tourism for Turkish ecenomy, and define the optimum variables which affect tourism revenues. In this type of econometric study that needs the multiple regression models, one of the problems in estimation of parameters is stationarity in time series. Therefore, usableness of the problem for long run relationship is analyzed. Finally autocorrelation, multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity are investigated.

  5. Disruption of Brewers' yeast by hydrodynamic cavitation: Process variables and their influence on selective release.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasundaram, B; Harrison, S T L

    2006-06-05

    Intracellular products, not secreted from the microbial cell, are released by breaking the cell envelope consisting of cytoplasmic membrane and an outer cell wall. Hydrodynamic cavitation has been reported to cause microbial cell disruption. By manipulating the operating variables involved, a wide range of intensity of cavitation can be achieved resulting in a varying extent of disruption. The effect of the process variables including cavitation number, initial cell concentration of the suspension and the number of passes across the cavitation zone on the release of enzymes from various locations of the Brewers' yeast was studied. The release profile of the enzymes studied include alpha-glucosidase (periplasmic), invertase (cell wall bound), alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH; cytoplasmic) and glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDH; cytoplasmic). An optimum cavitation number Cv of 0.13 for maximum disruption was observed across the range Cv 0.09-0.99. The optimum cell concentration was found to be 0.5% (w/v, wet wt) when varying over the range 0.1%-5%. The sustained effect of cavitation on the yeast cell wall when re-circulating the suspension across the cavitation zone was found to release the cell wall bound enzyme invertase (86%) to a greater extent than the enzymes from other locations of the cell (e.g. periplasmic alpha-glucosidase at 17%). Localised damage to the cell wall could be observed using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) of cells subjected to less intense cavitation conditions. Absence of the release of cytoplasmic enzymes to a significant extent, absence of micronisation as observed by TEM and presence of a lower number of proteins bands in the culture supernatant on SDS-PAGE analysis following hydrodynamic cavitation compared to disruption by high-pressure homogenisation confirmed the selective release offered by hydrodynamic cavitation. Copyright 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Selection of entropy-measure parameters for knowledge discovery in heart rate variability data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, Christopher C; Bachler, Martin; Hörtenhuber, Matthias; Stocker, Christof; Holzinger, Andreas; Wassertheurer, Siegfried

    2014-01-01

    Heart rate variability is the variation of the time interval between consecutive heartbeats. Entropy is a commonly used tool to describe the regularity of data sets. Entropy functions are defined using multiple parameters, the selection of which is controversial and depends on the intended purpose. This study describes the results of tests conducted to support parameter selection, towards the goal of enabling further biomarker discovery. This study deals with approximate, sample, fuzzy, and fuzzy measure entropies. All data were obtained from PhysioNet, a free-access, on-line archive of physiological signals, and represent various medical conditions. Five tests were defined and conducted to examine the influence of: varying the threshold value r (as multiples of the sample standard deviation σ, or the entropy-maximizing rChon), the data length N, the weighting factors n for fuzzy and fuzzy measure entropies, and the thresholds rF and rL for fuzzy measure entropy. The results were tested for normality using Lilliefors' composite goodness-of-fit test. Consequently, the p-value was calculated with either a two sample t-test or a Wilcoxon rank sum test. The first test shows a cross-over of entropy values with regard to a change of r. Thus, a clear statement that a higher entropy corresponds to a high irregularity is not possible, but is rather an indicator of differences in regularity. N should be at least 200 data points for r = 0.2 σ and should even exceed a length of 1000 for r = rChon. The results for the weighting parameters n for the fuzzy membership function show different behavior when coupled with different r values, therefore the weighting parameters have been chosen independently for the different threshold values. The tests concerning rF and rL showed that there is no optimal choice, but r = rF = rL is reasonable with r = rChon or r = 0.2σ. Some of the tests showed a dependency of the test significance on the data at hand. Nevertheless, as the medical

  7. Improving the Classification Accuracy for Near-Infrared Spectroscopy of Chinese Salvia miltiorrhiza Using Local Variable Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lianqing Zhu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the classification accuracy of Chinese Salvia miltiorrhiza using near-infrared spectroscopy, a novel local variable selection strategy is thus proposed. Combining the strengths of the local algorithm and interval partial least squares, the spectra data have firstly been divided into several pairs of classes in sample direction and equidistant subintervals in variable direction. Then, a local classification model has been built, and the most proper spectral region has been selected based on the new evaluation criterion considering both classification error rate and best predictive ability under the leave-one-out cross validation scheme for each pair of classes. Finally, each observation can be assigned to belong to the class according to the statistical analysis of classification results of the local classification model built on selected variables. The performance of the proposed method was demonstrated through near-infrared spectra of cultivated or wild Salvia miltiorrhiza, which are collected from 8 geographical origins in 5 provinces of China. For comparison, soft independent modelling of class analogy and partial least squares discriminant analysis methods are, respectively, employed as the classification model. Experimental results showed that classification performance of the classification model with local variable selection was obvious better than that without variable selection.

  8. Short-Term Effects of Climatic Variables on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Mainland China, 2008-2013: A Multilevel Spatial Poisson Regression Model Accounting for Overdispersion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Jiaqiang; Yu, Shicheng; Yang, Fang; Yang, Min; Hu, Yuehua; Zhang, Juying

    2016-01-01

    Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease. In China, many provinces have reported HFMD cases, especially the south and southwest provinces. Many studies have found a strong association between the incidence of HFMD and climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. However, few studies have analyzed cluster effects between various geographical units. The nonlinear relationships and lag effects between weekly HFMD cases and climatic variables were estimated for the period of 2008-2013 using a polynomial distributed lag model. The extra-Poisson multilevel spatial polynomial model was used to model the exact relationship between weekly HFMD incidence and climatic variables after considering cluster effects, provincial correlated structure of HFMD incidence and overdispersion. The smoothing spline methods were used to detect threshold effects between climatic factors and HFMD incidence. The HFMD incidence spatial heterogeneity distributed among provinces, and the scale measurement of overdispersion was 548.077. After controlling for long-term trends, spatial heterogeneity and overdispersion, temperature was highly associated with HFMD incidence. Weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference approximate inverse "V" shape and "V" shape relationships associated with HFMD incidence. The lag effects for weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference were 3 weeks and 2 weeks. High spatial correlated HFMD incidence were detected in northern, central and southern province. Temperature can be used to explain most of variation of HFMD incidence in southern and northeastern provinces. After adjustment for temperature, eastern and Northern provinces still had high variation HFMD incidence. We found a relatively strong association between weekly HFMD incidence and weekly average temperature. The association between the HFMD incidence and climatic variables spatial heterogeneity distributed across

  9. Short-Term Effects of Climatic Variables on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Mainland China, 2008–2013: A Multilevel Spatial Poisson Regression Model Accounting for Overdispersion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Fang; Yang, Min; Hu, Yuehua; Zhang, Juying

    2016-01-01

    Background Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease. In China, many provinces have reported HFMD cases, especially the south and southwest provinces. Many studies have found a strong association between the incidence of HFMD and climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. However, few studies have analyzed cluster effects between various geographical units. Methods The nonlinear relationships and lag effects between weekly HFMD cases and climatic variables were estimated for the period of 2008–2013 using a polynomial distributed lag model. The extra-Poisson multilevel spatial polynomial model was used to model the exact relationship between weekly HFMD incidence and climatic variables after considering cluster effects, provincial correlated structure of HFMD incidence and overdispersion. The smoothing spline methods were used to detect threshold effects between climatic factors and HFMD incidence. Results The HFMD incidence spatial heterogeneity distributed among provinces, and the scale measurement of overdispersion was 548.077. After controlling for long-term trends, spatial heterogeneity and overdispersion, temperature was highly associated with HFMD incidence. Weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference approximate inverse “V” shape and “V” shape relationships associated with HFMD incidence. The lag effects for weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference were 3 weeks and 2 weeks. High spatial correlated HFMD incidence were detected in northern, central and southern province. Temperature can be used to explain most of variation of HFMD incidence in southern and northeastern provinces. After adjustment for temperature, eastern and Northern provinces still had high variation HFMD incidence. Conclusion We found a relatively strong association between weekly HFMD incidence and weekly average temperature. The association between the HFMD incidence and climatic

  10. Selecting sagebrush seed sources for restoration in a variable climate: ecophysiological variation among genotypes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germino, Matthew J.

    2012-01-01

    Big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) communities dominate a large fraction of the United States and provide critical habitat for a number of wildlife species of concern. Loss of big sagebrush due to fire followed by poor restoration success continues to reduce ecological potential of this ecosystem type, particularly in the Great Basin. Choice of appropriate seed sources for restoration efforts is currently unguided due to knowledge gaps on genetic variation and local adaptation as they relate to a changing landscape. We are assessing ecophysiological responses of big sagebrush to climate variation, comparing plants that germinated from ~20 geographically distinct populations of each of the three subspecies of big sagebrush. Seedlings were previously planted into common gardens by US Forest Service collaborators Drs. B. Richardson and N. Shaw, (USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, Provo, Utah and Boise, Idaho) as part of the Great Basin Native Plant Selection and Increase Project. Seed sources spanned all states in the conterminous Western United States. Germination, establishment, growth and ecophysiological responses are being linked to genomics and foliar palatability. New information is being produced to aid choice of appropriate seed sources by Bureau of Land Management and USFS field offices when they are planning seed acquisitions for emergency post-fire rehabilitation projects while considering climate variability and wildlife needs.

  11. Selective attrition and intraindividual variability in response time moderate cognitive change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Christie; Stawski, Robert S; Hultsch, David F; MacDonald, Stuart W S

    2016-01-01

    Selection of a developmental time metric is useful for understanding causal processes that underlie aging-related cognitive change and for the identification of potential moderators of cognitive decline. Building on research suggesting that time to attrition is a metric sensitive to non-normative influences of aging (e.g., subclinical health conditions), we examined reason for attrition and intraindividual variability (IIV) in reaction time as predictors of cognitive performance. Three hundred and four community dwelling older adults (64-92 years) completed annual assessments in a longitudinal study. IIV was calculated from baseline performance on reaction time tasks. Multilevel models were fit to examine patterns and predictors of cognitive change. We show that time to attrition was associated with cognitive decline. Greater IIV was associated with declines on executive functioning and episodic memory measures. Attrition due to personal health reasons was also associated with decreased executive functioning compared to that of individuals who remained in the study. These findings suggest that time to attrition is a useful metric for representing cognitive change, and reason for attrition and IIV are predictive of non-normative influences that may underlie instances of cognitive loss in older adults.

  12. Relationship of Powder Feedstock Variability to Microstructure and Defects in Selective Laser Melted Alloy 718

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, T. M.; Kloesel, M. F.; Sudbrack, C. K.

    2017-01-01

    Powder-bed additive manufacturing processes use fine powders to build parts layer by layer. For selective laser melted (SLM) Alloy 718, the powders that are available off-the-shelf are in the 10-45 or 15-45 micron size range. A comprehensive investigation of sixteen powders from these typical ranges and two off-nominal-sized powders is underway to gain insight into the impact of feedstock on processing, durability and performance of 718 SLM space-flight hardware. This talk emphasizes an aspect of this work: the impact of powder variability on the microstructure and defects observed in the as-fabricated and full heated material, where lab-scale components were built using vendor recommended parameters. These typical powders exhibit variation in composition, percentage of fines, roughness, morphology and particle size distribution. How these differences relate to the melt-pool size, porosity, grain structure, precipitate distributions, and inclusion content will be presented and discussed in context of build quality and powder acceptance.

  13. An experiment on selecting most informative variables in socio-economic data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Jenkins

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In many studies where data are collected on several variables, there is a motivation to find if fewer variables would provide almost as much information. Variance of a variable about its mean is the common statistical measure of information content, and that is used here. We are interested whether the variability in one variable is sufficiently correlated with that in one or more of the other variables that the first variable is redundant. We wish to find one or more ‘principal variables’ that sufficiently reflect the information content in all the original variables. The paper explains the method of principal variables and reports experiments using the technique to see if just a few variables are sufficient to reflect the information in 11 socioeconomic variables on 130 countries from a World Bank (WB database. While the method of principal variables is highly successful in a statistical sense, the WB data varies greatly from year to year, demonstrating that fewer variables wo uld be inadequate for this data.

  14. Determination of fat content in chicken hamburgers using NIR spectroscopy and the Successive Projections Algorithm for interval selection in PLS regression (iSPA-PLS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krepper, Gabriela; Romeo, Florencia; Fernandes, David Douglas de Sousa; Diniz, Paulo Henrique Gonçalves Dias; de Araújo, Mário César Ugulino; Di Nezio, María Susana; Pistonesi, Marcelo Fabián; Centurión, María Eugenia

    2018-01-01

    Determining fat content in hamburgers is very important to minimize or control the negative effects of fat on human health, effects such as cardiovascular diseases and obesity, which are caused by the high consumption of saturated fatty acids and cholesterol. This study proposed an alternative analytical method based on Near Infrared Spectroscopy (NIR) and Successive Projections Algorithm for interval selection in Partial Least Squares regression (iSPA-PLS) for fat content determination in commercial chicken hamburgers. For this, 70 hamburger samples with a fat content ranging from 14.27 to 32.12 mg kg- 1 were prepared based on the upper limit recommended by the Argentinean Food Codex, which is 20% (w w- 1). NIR spectra were then recorded and then preprocessed by applying different approaches: base line correction, SNV, MSC, and Savitzky-Golay smoothing. For comparison, full-spectrum PLS and the Interval PLS are also used. The best performance for the prediction set was obtained for the first derivative Savitzky-Golay smoothing with a second-order polynomial and window size of 19 points, achieving a coefficient of correlation of 0.94, RMSEP of 1.59 mg kg- 1, REP of 7.69% and RPD of 3.02. The proposed methodology represents an excellent alternative to the conventional Soxhlet extraction method, since waste generation is avoided, yet without the use of either chemical reagents or solvents, which follows the primary principles of Green Chemistry. The new method was successfully applied to chicken hamburger analysis, and the results agreed with those with reference values at a 95% confidence level, making it very attractive for routine analysis.

  15. Advanced statistics: linear regression, part II: multiple linear regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marill, Keith A

    2004-01-01

    The applications of simple linear regression in medical research are limited, because in most situations, there are multiple relevant predictor variables. Univariate statistical techniques such as simple linear regression use a single predictor variable, and they often may be mathematically correct but clinically misleading. Multiple linear regression is a mathematical technique used to model the relationship between multiple independent predictor variables and a single dependent outcome variable. It is used in medical research to model observational data, as well as in diagnostic and therapeutic studies in which the outcome is dependent on more than one factor. Although the technique generally is limited to data that can be expressed with a linear function, it benefits from a well-developed mathematical framework that yields unique solutions and exact confidence intervals for regression coefficients. Building on Part I of this series, this article acquaints the reader with some of the important concepts in multiple regression analysis. These include multicollinearity, interaction effects, and an expansion of the discussion of inference testing, leverage, and variable transformations to multivariate models. Examples from the first article in this series are expanded on using a primarily graphic, rather than mathematical, approach. The importance of the relationships among the predictor variables and the dependence of the multivariate model coefficients on the choice of these variables are stressed. Finally, concepts in regression model building are discussed.

  16. Ordinary least square regression, orthogonal regression, geometric mean regression and their applications in aerosol science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leng Ling; Zhang Tianyi; Kleinman, Lawrence; Zhu Wei

    2007-01-01

    Regression analysis, especially the ordinary least squares method which assumes that errors are confined to the dependent variable, has seen a fair share of its applications in aerosol science. The ordinary least squares approach, however, could be problematic due to the fact that atmospheric data often does not lend itself to calling one variable independent and the other dependent. Errors often exist for both measurements. In this work, we examine two regression approaches available to accommodate this situation. They are orthogonal regression and geometric mean regression. Comparisons are made theoretically as well as numerically through an aerosol study examining whether the ratio of organic aerosol to CO would change with age

  17. Stochastic weather inputs for improved urban water demand forecasting: application of nonlinear input variable selection and machine learning methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quilty, J.; Adamowski, J. F.

    2015-12-01

    Urban water supply systems are often stressed during seasonal outdoor water use as water demands related to the climate are variable in nature making it difficult to optimize the operation of the water supply system. Urban water demand forecasts (UWD) failing to include meteorological conditions as inputs to the forecast model may produce poor forecasts as they cannot account for the increase/decrease in demand related to meteorological conditions. Meteorological records stochastically simulated into the future can be used as inputs to data-driven UWD forecasts generally resulting in improved forecast accuracy. This study aims to produce data-driven UWD forecasts for two different Canadian water utilities (Montreal and Victoria) using machine learning methods by first selecting historical UWD and meteorological records derived from a stochastic weather generator using nonlinear input variable selection. The nonlinear input variable selection methods considered in this work are derived from the concept of conditional mutual information, a nonlinear dependency measure based on (multivariate) probability density functions and accounts for relevancy, conditional relevancy, and redundancy from a potential set of input variables. The results of our study indicate that stochastic weather inputs can improve UWD forecast accuracy for the two sites considered in this work. Nonlinear input variable selection is suggested as a means to identify which meteorological conditions should be utilized in the forecast.

  18. Variations in Carabidae assemblages across the farmland habitats in relation to selected environmental variables including soil properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beáta Baranová

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The variations in ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae assemblages across the three types of farmland habitats, arable land, meadows and woody vegetation were studied in relation to vegetation cover structure, intensity of agrotechnical interventions and selected soil properties. Material was pitfall trapped in 2010 and 2011 on twelve sites of the agricultural landscape in the Prešov town and its near vicinity, Eastern Slovakia. A total of 14,763 ground beetle individuals were entrapped. Material collection resulted into 92 Carabidae species, with the following six species dominating: Poecilus cupreus, Pterostichus melanarius, Pseudoophonus rufipes, Brachinus crepitans, Anchomenus dorsalis and Poecilus versicolor. Studied habitats differed significantly in the number of entrapped individuals, activity abundance as well as representation of the carabids according to their habitat preferences and ability to fly. However, no significant distinction was observed in the diversity, evenness neither dominance. The most significant environmental variables affecting Carabidae assemblages species variability were soil moisture and herb layer 0-20 cm. Another best variables selected by the forward selection were intensity of agrotechnical interventions, humus content and shrub vegetation. The other from selected soil properties seem to have just secondary meaning for the adult carabids. Environmental variables have the strongest effect on the habitat specialists, whereas ground beetles without special requirements to the habitat quality seem to be affected by the studied environmental variables just little.

  19. Advanced colorectal neoplasia risk stratification by penalized logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yunzhi; Yu, Menggang; Wang, Sijian; Chappell, Richard; Imperiale, Thomas F

    2016-08-01

    Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of death from cancer in the United States. To facilitate the efficiency of colorectal cancer screening, there is a need to stratify risk for colorectal cancer among the 90% of US residents who are considered "average risk." In this article, we investigate such risk stratification rules for advanced colorectal neoplasia (colorectal cancer and advanced, precancerous polyps). We use a recently completed large cohort study of subjects who underwent a first screening colonoscopy. Logistic regression models have been used in the literature to estimate the risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia based on quantifiable risk factors. However, logistic regression may be prone to overfitting and instability in variable selection. Since most of the risk factors in our study have several categories, it was tempting to collapse these categories into fewer risk groups. We propose a penalized logistic regression method that automatically and simultaneously selects variables, groups categories, and estimates their coefficients by penalizing the [Formula: see text]-norm of both the coefficients and their differences. Hence, it encourages sparsity in the categories, i.e. grouping of the categories, and sparsity in the variables, i.e. variable selection. We apply the penalized logistic regression method to our data. The important variables are selected, with close categories simultaneously grouped, by penalized regression models with and without the interactions terms. The models are validated with 10-fold cross-validation. The receiver operating characteristic curves of the penalized regression models dominate the receiver operating characteristic curve of naive logistic regressions, indicating a superior discriminative performance. © The Author(s) 2013.

  20. Dynamic variable selection in SNP genotype autocalling from APEX microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zamar Ruben H

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs are DNA sequence variations, occurring when a single nucleotide – adenine (A, thymine (T, cytosine (C or guanine (G – is altered. Arguably, SNPs account for more than 90% of human genetic variation. Our laboratory has developed a highly redundant SNP genotyping assay consisting of multiple probes with signals from multiple channels for a single SNP, based on arrayed primer extension (APEX. This mini-sequencing method is a powerful combination of a highly parallel microarray with distinctive Sanger-based dideoxy terminator sequencing chemistry. Using this microarray platform, our current genotype calling system (known as SNP Chart is capable of calling single SNP genotypes by manual inspection of the APEX data, which is time-consuming and exposed to user subjectivity bias. Results Using a set of 32 Coriell DNA samples plus three negative PCR controls as a training data set, we have developed a fully-automated genotyping algorithm based on simple linear discriminant analysis (LDA using dynamic variable selection. The algorithm combines separate analyses based on the multiple probe sets to give a final posterior probability for each candidate genotype. We have tested our algorithm on a completely independent data set of 270 DNA samples, with validated genotypes, from patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU of St. Paul's Hospital (plus one negative PCR control sample. Our method achieves a concordance rate of 98.9% with a 99.6% call rate for a set of 96 SNPs. By adjusting the threshold value for the final posterior probability of the called genotype, the call rate reduces to 94.9% with a higher concordance rate of 99.6%. We also reversed the two independent data sets in their training and testing roles, achieving a concordance rate up to 99.8%. Conclusion The strength of this APEX chemistry-based platform is its unique redundancy having multiple probes for a single SNP. Our

  1. Multicollinearity is a red herring in the search for moderator variables: A guide to interpreting moderated multiple regression models and a critique of Iacobucci, Schneider, Popovich, and Bakamitsos (2016).

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClelland, Gary H; Irwin, Julie R; Disatnik, David; Sivan, Liron

    2017-02-01

    Multicollinearity is irrelevant to the search for moderator variables, contrary to the implications of Iacobucci, Schneider, Popovich, and Bakamitsos (Behavior Research Methods, 2016, this issue). Multicollinearity is like the red herring in a mystery novel that distracts the statistical detective from the pursuit of a true moderator relationship. We show multicollinearity is completely irrelevant for tests of moderator variables. Furthermore, readers of Iacobucci et al. might be confused by a number of their errors. We note those errors, but more positively, we describe a variety of methods researchers might use to test and interpret their moderated multiple regression models, including two-stage testing, mean-centering, spotlighting, orthogonalizing, and floodlighting without regard to putative issues of multicollinearity. We cite a number of recent studies in the psychological literature in which the researchers used these methods appropriately to test, to interpret, and to report their moderated multiple regression models. We conclude with a set of recommendations for the analysis and reporting of moderated multiple regression that should help researchers better understand their models and facilitate generalizations across studies.

  2. A simple approach to power and sample size calculations in logistic regression and Cox regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaeth, Michael; Skovlund, Eva

    2004-06-15

    For a given regression problem it is possible to identify a suitably defined equivalent two-sample problem such that the power or sample size obtained for the two-sample problem also applies to the regression problem. For a standard linear regression model the equivalent two-sample problem is easily identified, but for generalized linear models and for Cox regression models the situation is more complicated. An approximately equivalent two-sample problem may, however, also be identified here. In particular, we show that for logistic regression and Cox regression models the equivalent two-sample problem is obtained by selecting two equally sized samples for which the parameters differ by a value equal to the slope times twice the standard deviation of the independent variable and further requiring that the overall expected number of events is unchanged. In a simulation study we examine the validity of this approach to power calculations in logistic regression and Cox regression models. Several different covariate distributions are considered for selected values of the overall response probability and a range of alternatives. For the Cox regression model we consider both constant and non-constant hazard rates. The results show that in general the approach is remarkably accurate even in relatively small samples. Some discrepancies are, however, found in small samples with few events and a highly skewed covariate distribution. Comparison with results based on alternative methods for logistic regression models with a single continuous covariate indicates that the proposed method is at least as good as its competitors. The method is easy to implement and therefore provides a simple way to extend the range of problems that can be covered by the usual formulas for power and sample size determination. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. bayesQR: A Bayesian Approach to Quantile Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dries F. Benoit

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available After its introduction by Koenker and Basset (1978, quantile regression has become an important and popular tool to investigate the conditional response distribution in regression. The R package bayesQR contains a number of routines to estimate quantile regression parameters using a Bayesian approach based on the asymmetric Laplace distribution. The package contains functions for the typical quantile regression with continuous dependent variable, but also supports quantile regression for binary dependent variables. For both types of dependent variables, an approach to variable selection using the adaptive lasso approach is provided. For the binary quantile regression model, the package also contains a routine that calculates the fitted probabilities for each vector of predictors. In addition, functions for summarizing the results, creating traceplots, posterior histograms and drawing quantile plots are included. This paper starts with a brief overview of the theoretical background of the models used in the bayesQR package. The main part of this paper discusses the computational problems that arise in the implementation of the procedure and illustrates the usefulness of the package through selected examples.

  4. Impact of multicollinearity on small sample hydrologic regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, Charles N.; Song, Peter

    2013-06-01

    Often hydrologic regression models are developed with ordinary least squares (OLS) procedures. The use of OLS with highly correlated explanatory variables produces multicollinearity, which creates highly sensitive parameter estimators with inflated variances and improper model selection. It is not clear how to best address multicollinearity in hydrologic regression models. Here a Monte Carlo simulation is developed to compare four techniques to address multicollinearity: OLS, OLS with variance inflation factor screening (VIF), principal component regression (PCR), and partial least squares regression (PLS). The performance of these four techniques was observed for varying sample sizes, correlation coefficients between the explanatory variables, and model error variances consistent with hydrologic regional regression models. The negative effects of multicollinearity are magnified at smaller sample sizes, higher correlations between the variables, and larger model error variances (smaller R2). The Monte Carlo simulation indicates that if the true model is known, multicollinearity is present, and the estimation and statistical testing of regression parameters are of interest, then PCR or PLS should be employed. If the model is unknown, or if the interest is solely on model predictions, is it recommended that OLS be employed since using more complicated techniques did not produce any improvement in model performance. A leave-one-out cross-validation case study was also performed using low-streamflow data sets from the eastern United States. Results indicate that OLS with stepwise selection generally produces models across study regions with varying levels of multicollinearity that are as good as biased regression techniques such as PCR and PLS.

  5. Propensity-score matching in economic analyses: comparison with regression models, instrumental variables, residual inclusion, differences-in-differences, and decomposition methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crown, William H

    2014-02-01

    This paper examines the use of propensity score matching in economic analyses of observational data. Several excellent papers have previously reviewed practical aspects of propensity score estimation and other aspects of the propensity score literature. The purpose of this paper is to compare the conceptual foundation of propensity score models with alternative estimators of treatment effects. References are provided to empirical comparisons among methods that have appeared in the literature. These comparisons are available for a subset of the methods considered in this paper. However, in some cases, no pairwise comparisons of particular methods are yet available, and there are no examples of comparisons across all of the methods surveyed here. Irrespective of the availability of empirical comparisons, the goal of this paper is to provide some intuition about the relative merits of alternative estimators in health economic evaluations where nonlinearity, sample size, availability of pre/post data, heterogeneity, and missing variables can have important implications for choice of methodology. Also considered is the potential combination of propensity score matching with alternative methods such as differences-in-differences and decomposition methods that have not yet appeared in the empirical literature.

  6. Logistic Regression: Concept and Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cokluk, Omay

    2010-01-01

    The main focus of logistic regression analysis is classification of individuals in different groups. The aim of the present study is to explain basic concepts and processes of binary logistic regression analysis intended to determine the combination of independent variables which best explain the membership in certain groups called dichotomous…

  7. QUASI-STELLAR OBJECT SELECTION ALGORITHM USING TIME VARIABILITY AND MACHINE LEARNING: SELECTION OF 1620 QUASI-STELLAR OBJECT CANDIDATES FROM MACHO LARGE MAGELLANIC CLOUD DATABASE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dae-Won; Protopapas, Pavlos; Alcock, Charles; Trichas, Markos; Byun, Yong-Ik; Khardon, Roni

    2011-01-01

    We present a new quasi-stellar object (QSO) selection algorithm using a Support Vector Machine, a supervised classification method, on a set of extracted time series features including period, amplitude, color, and autocorrelation value. We train a model that separates QSOs from variable stars, non-variable stars, and microlensing events using 58 known QSOs, 1629 variable stars, and 4288 non-variables in the MAssive Compact Halo Object (MACHO) database as a training set. To estimate the efficiency and the accuracy of the model, we perform a cross-validation test using the training set. The test shows that the model correctly identifies ∼80% of known QSOs with a 25% false-positive rate. The majority of the false positives are Be stars. We applied the trained model to the MACHO Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) data set, which consists of 40 million light curves, and found 1620 QSO candidates. During the selection none of the 33,242 known MACHO variables were misclassified as QSO candidates. In order to estimate the true false-positive rate, we crossmatched the candidates with astronomical catalogs including the Spitzer Surveying the Agents of a Galaxy's Evolution LMC catalog and a few X-ray catalogs. The results further suggest that the majority of the candidates, more than 70%, are QSOs.

  8. Bayesian inference for the genetic control of water deficit tolerance in spring wheat by stochastic search variable selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safari, Parviz; Danyali, Syyedeh Fatemeh; Rahimi, Mehdi

    2018-06-02

    Drought is the main abiotic stress seriously influencing wheat production. Information about the inheritance of drought tolerance is necessary to determine the most appropriate strategy to develop tolerant cultivars and populations. In this study, generation means analysis to identify the genetic effects controlling grain yield inheritance in water deficit and normal conditions was considered as a model selection problem in a Bayesian framework. Stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) was applied to identify the most important genetic effects and the best fitted models using different generations obtained from two crosses applying two water regimes in two growing seasons. The SSVS is used to evaluate the effect of each variable on the dependent variable via posterior variable inclusion probabilities. The model with the highest posterior probability is selected as the best model. In this study, the grain yield was controlled by the main effects (additive and non-additive effects) and epistatic. The results demonstrate that breeding methods such as recurrent selection and subsequent pedigree method and hybrid production can be useful to improve grain yield.

  9. Angular scanning and variable wavelength surface plasmon resonance allowing free sensor surface selection for optimum material- and bio-sensing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lakayan, Dina; Tuppurainen, Jussipekka; Albers, Martin; van Lint, Matthijs J.; van Iperen, Dick J.; Weda, Jelmer J.A.; Kuncova-Kallio, Johana; Somsen, Govert W.; Kool, Jeroen

    2018-01-01

    A variable-wavelength Kretschmann configuration surface plasmon resonance (SPR) apparatus with angle scanning is presented. The setup provides the possibility of selecting the optimum wavelength with respect to the properties of the metal layer of the sensorchip, sample matrix, and biomolecular

  10. The Salience of Selected Variables on Choice for Movie Attendance among High School Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Bruce A.

    A questionnaire was designed for a study assessing both the importance of 28 variables in movie attendance and the importance of movie-going as a leisure-time activity. Respondents were 130 ninth and twelfth grade students. The 28 variables were broadly organized into eight categories: movie production personnel, production elements, advertising,…

  11. PLS-based and regularization-based methods for the selection of relevant variables in non-targeted metabolomics data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Bujak

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Non-targeted metabolomics constitutes a part of systems biology and aims to determine many metabolites in complex biological samples. Datasets obtained in non-targeted metabolomics studies are multivariate and high-dimensional due to the sensitivity of mass spectrometry-based detection methods as well as complexity of biological matrices. Proper selection of variables which contribute into group classification is a crucial step, especially in metabolomics studies which are focused on searching for disease biomarker candidates. In the present study, three different statistical approaches were tested using two metabolomics datasets (RH and PH study. Orthogonal projections to latent structures-discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA without and with multiple testing correction as well as least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO were tested and compared. For the RH study, OPLS-DA model built without multiple testing correction, selected 46 and 218 variables based on VIP criteria using Pareto and UV scaling, respectively. In the case of the PH study, 217 and 320 variables were selected based on VIP criteria using Pareto and UV scaling, respectively. In the RH study, OPLS-DA model built with multiple testing correction, selected 4 and 19 variables as statistically significant in terms of Pareto and UV scaling, respectively. For PH study, 14 and 18 variables were selected based on VIP criteria in terms of Pareto and UV scaling, respectively. Additionally, the concept and fundaments of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO with bootstrap procedure evaluating reproducibility of results, was demonstrated. In the RH and PH study, the LASSO selected 14 and 4 variables with reproducibility between 99.3% and 100%. However, apart from the popularity of PLS-DA and OPLS-DA methods in metabolomics, it should be highlighted that they do not control type I or type II error, but only arbitrarily establish a cut-off value for PLS-DA loadings

  12. The role of protozoa-driven selection in shaping human genetic variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzoli, Uberto; Fumagalli, Matteo; Cagliani, Rachele; Comi, Giacomo P; Bresolin, Nereo; Clerici, Mario; Sironi, Manuela

    2010-03-01

    Protozoa exert a strong selective pressure in humans. The selection signatures left by these pathogens can be exploited to identify genetic modulators of infection susceptibility. We show that protozoa diversity in different geographic locations is a good measure of protozoa-driven selective pressure; protozoa diversity captured selection signatures at known malaria resistance loci and identified several selected single nucleotide polymorphisms in immune and hemolytic anemia genes. A genome-wide search enabled us to identify 5180 variants mapping to 1145 genes that are subjected to protozoa-driven selective pressure. We provide a genome-wide estimate of protozoa-driven selective pressure and identify candidate susceptibility genes for protozoa-borne diseases. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Linear regression in astronomy. I

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isobe, Takashi; Feigelson, Eric D.; Akritas, Michael G.; Babu, Gutti Jogesh

    1990-01-01

    Five methods for obtaining linear regression fits to bivariate data with unknown or insignificant measurement errors are discussed: ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression of Y on X, OLS regression of X on Y, the bisector of the two OLS lines, orthogonal regression, and 'reduced major-axis' regression. These methods have been used by various researchers in observational astronomy, most importantly in cosmic distance scale applications. Formulas for calculating the slope and intercept coefficients and their uncertainties are given for all the methods, including a new general form of the OLS variance estimates. The accuracy of the formulas was confirmed using numerical simulations. The applicability of the procedures is discussed with respect to their mathematical properties, the nature of the astronomical data under consideration, and the scientific purpose of the regression. It is found that, for problems needing symmetrical treatment of the variables, the OLS bisector performs significantly better than orthogonal or reduced major-axis regression.

  14. Variable selection for confounder control, flexible modeling and Collaborative Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation in causal inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnitzer, Mireille E.; Lok, Judith J.; Gruber, Susan

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the appropriateness of the integration of flexible propensity score modeling (nonparametric or machine learning approaches) in semiparametric models for the estimation of a causal quantity, such as the mean outcome under treatment. We begin with an overview of some of the issues involved in knowledge-based and statistical variable selection in causal inference and the potential pitfalls of automated selection based on the fit of the propensity score. Using a simple example, we directly show the consequences of adjusting for pure causes of the exposure when using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Such variables are likely to be selected when using a naive approach to model selection for the propensity score. We describe how the method of Collaborative Targeted minimum loss-based estimation (C-TMLE; van der Laan and Gruber, 2010) capitalizes on the collaborative double robustness property of semiparametric efficient estimators to select covariates for the propensity score based on the error in the conditional outcome model. Finally, we compare several approaches to automated variable selection in low-and high-dimensional settings through a simulation study. From this simulation study, we conclude that using IPTW with flexible prediction for the propensity score can result in inferior estimation, while Targeted minimum loss-based estimation and C-TMLE may benefit from flexible prediction and remain robust to the presence of variables that are highly correlated with treatment. However, in our study, standard influence function-based methods for the variance underestimated the standard errors, resulting in poor coverage under certain data-generating scenarios. PMID:26226129

  15. Input Selection for Return Temperature Estimation in Mixing Loops using Partial Mutual Information with Flow Variable Delay

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Anders; Kallesøe, Carsten Skovmose; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon

    2017-01-01

    adgang til data, er ønsker at skabe en datadreven model til kontrol. Grundet den store mængde tilgængelig data anvendes der en metode til valg af inputs kaldet "Partial Mutual Information" (PMI). Denne artikel introducerer en metode til at inkluderer flow variable forsinkelser i PMI. Data fra en...... kontorbygning i Bjerringbro anvendes til analyse. Det vises at "Mutual Information" og et "Generalized Regression Neural Network" begge forbedres ved at anvende flow variabelt forsinkelse i forhold til at anvende konstante delay....

  16. Logic regression and its extensions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwender, Holger; Ruczinski, Ingo

    2010-01-01

    Logic regression is an adaptive classification and regression procedure, initially developed to reveal interacting single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genetic association studies. In general, this approach can be used in any setting with binary predictors, when the interaction of these covariates is of primary interest. Logic regression searches for Boolean (logic) combinations of binary variables that best explain the variability in the outcome variable, and thus, reveals variables and interactions that are associated with the response and/or have predictive capabilities. The logic expressions are embedded in a generalized linear regression framework, and thus, logic regression can handle a variety of outcome types, such as binary responses in case-control studies, numeric responses, and time-to-event data. In this chapter, we provide an introduction to the logic regression methodology, list some applications in public health and medicine, and summarize some of the direct extensions and modifications of logic regression that have been proposed in the literature. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. The selection of a mode of urban transportation: Integrating psychological variables to discrete choice models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cordoba Maquilon, Jorge E; Gonzalez Calderon, Carlos A; Posada Henao, John J

    2011-01-01

    A study using revealed preference surveys and psychological tests was conducted. Key psychological variables of behavior involved in the choice of transportation mode in a population sample of the Metropolitan Area of the Valle de Aburra were detected. The experiment used the random utility theory for discrete choice models and reasoned action in order to assess beliefs. This was used as a tool for analysis of the psychological variables using the sixteen personality factor questionnaire (16PF test). In addition to the revealed preference surveys, two other surveys were carried out: one with socio-economic characteristics and the other with latent indicators. This methodology allows for an integration of discrete choice models and latent variables. The integration makes the model operational and quantifies the unobservable psychological variables. The most relevant result obtained was that anxiety affects the choice of urban transportation mode and shows that physiological alterations, as well as problems in perception and beliefs, can affect the decision-making process.

  18. Oracle Efficient Variable Selection in Random and Fixed Effects Panel Data Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kock, Anders Bredahl

    This paper generalizes the results for the Bridge estimator of Huang et al. (2008) to linear random and fixed effects panel data models which are allowed to grow in both dimensions. In particular we show that the Bridge estimator is oracle efficient. It can correctly distinguish between relevant...... and irrelevant variables and the asymptotic distribution of the estimators of the coefficients of the relevant variables is the same as if only these had been included in the model, i.e. as if an oracle had revealed the true model prior to estimation. In the case of more explanatory variables than observations......, we prove that the Marginal Bridge estimator can asymptotically correctly distinguish between relevant and irrelevant explanatory variables. We do this without restricting the dependence between covariates and without assuming sub Gaussianity of the error terms thereby generalizing the results...

  19. Better Autologistic Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A. Wolters

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Autologistic regression is an important probability model for dichotomous random variables observed along with covariate information. It has been used in various fields for analyzing binary data possessing spatial or network structure. The model can be viewed as an extension of the autologistic model (also known as the Ising model, quadratic exponential binary distribution, or Boltzmann machine to include covariates. It can also be viewed as an extension of logistic regression to handle responses that are not independent. Not all authors use exactly the same form of the autologistic regression model. Variations of the model differ in two respects. First, the variable coding—the two numbers used to represent the two possible states of the variables—might differ. Common coding choices are (zero, one and (minus one, plus one. Second, the model might appear in either of two algebraic forms: a standard form, or a recently proposed centered form. Little attention has been paid to the effect of these differences, and the literature shows ambiguity about their importance. It is shown here that changes to either coding or centering in fact produce distinct, non-nested probability models. Theoretical results, numerical studies, and analysis of an ecological data set all show that the differences among the models can be large and practically significant. Understanding the nature of the differences and making appropriate modeling choices can lead to significantly improved autologistic regression analyses. The results strongly suggest that the standard model with plus/minus coding, which we call the symmetric autologistic model, is the most natural choice among the autologistic variants.

  20. Short-term load forecasting with increment regression tree

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Jingfei; Stenzel, Juergen [Darmstadt University of Techonology, Darmstadt 64283 (Germany)

    2006-06-15

    This paper presents a new regression tree method for short-term load forecasting. Both increment and non-increment tree are built according to the historical data to provide the data space partition and input variable selection. Support vector machine is employed to the samples of regression tree nodes for further fine regression. Results of different tree nodes are integrated through weighted average method to obtain the comprehensive forecasting result. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through its application to an actual system. (author)

  1. Diagnostic Value of Selected Echocardiographic Variables to Identify Pulmonary Hypertension in Dogs with Myxomatous Mitral Valve Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tidholm, A; Höglund, K; Häggström, J; Ljungvall, I

    2015-01-01

    Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is commonly associated with myxomatous mitral valve disease (MMVD). Because dogs with PH present without measureable tricuspid regurgitation (TR), it would be useful to investigate echocardiographic variables that can identify PH. To investigate associations between estimated systolic TR pressure gradient (TRPG) and dog characteristics and selected echocardiographic variables. 156 privately owned dogs. Prospective observational study comparing the estimations of TRPG with dog characteristics and selected echocardiographic variables in dogs with MMVD and measureable TR. Tricuspid regurgitation pressure gradient was significantly (P modeled as linear variables LA/Ao (P modeled as second order polynomial variables: AT/DT (P = .0039) and LVIDDn (P value for the final model was 0.45 and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis suggested the model's performance to predict PH, defined as 36, 45, and 55 mmHg as fair (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.80), good (AUC = 0.86), and excellent (AUC = 0.92), respectively. In dogs with MMVD, the presence of PH might be suspected with the combination of decreased PA AT/DT, increased RVIDDn and LA/Ao, and a small or great LVIDDn. Copyright © 2015 The Authors Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

  2. Effects of musical tempo on physiological, affective, and perceptual variables and performance of self-selected walking pace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Flávia Angélica Martins; Nunes, Renan Felipe Hartmann; Ferreira, Sandro Dos Santos; Krinski, Kleverton; Elsangedy, Hassan Mohamed; Buzzachera, Cosme Franklin; Alves, Ragami Chaves; Gregorio da Silva, Sergio

    2015-06-01

    [Purpose] This study investigated the effects of musical tempo on physiological, affective, and perceptual responses as well as the performance of self-selected walking pace. [Subjects] The study included 28 adult women between 29 and 51 years old. [Methods] The subjects were divided into three groups: no musical stimulation group (control), and 90 and 140 beats per minute musical tempo groups. Each subject underwent three experimental sessions: involved familiarization with the equipment, an incremental test to exhaustion, and a 30-min walk on a treadmill at a self-selected pace, respectively. During the self-selected walking session, physiological, perceptual, and affective variables were evaluated, and walking performance was evaluated at the end. [Results] There were no significant differences in physiological variables or affective response among groups. However, there were significant differences in perceptual response and walking performance among groups. [Conclusion] Fast music (140 beats per minute) promotes a higher rating of perceived exertion and greater performance in self-selected walking pace without significantly altering physiological variables or affective response.

  3. Determination of main fruits in adulterated nectars by ATR-FTIR spectroscopy combined with multivariate calibration and variable selection methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miaw, Carolina Sheng Whei; Assis, Camila; Silva, Alessandro Rangel Carolino Sales; Cunha, Maria Luísa; Sena, Marcelo Martins; de Souza, Scheilla Vitorino Carvalho

    2018-07-15

    Grape, orange, peach and passion fruit nectars were formulated and adulterated by dilution with syrup, apple and cashew juices at 10 levels for each adulterant. Attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform mid infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectra were obtained. Partial least squares (PLS) multivariate calibration models allied to different variable selection methods, such as interval partial least squares (iPLS), ordered predictors selection (OPS) and genetic algorithm (GA), were used to quantify the main fruits. PLS improved by iPLS-OPS variable selection showed the highest predictive capacity to quantify the main fruit contents. The selected variables in the final models varied from 72 to 100; the root mean square errors of prediction were estimated from 0.5 to 2.6%; the correlation coefficients of prediction ranged from 0.948 to 0.990; and, the mean relative errors of prediction varied from 3.0 to 6.7%. All of the developed models were validated. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Genotype-by-environment interactions leads to variable selection on life-history strategy in Common Evening Primrose (Oenothera biennis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, M T J

    2007-01-01

    Monocarpic plant species, where reproduction is fatal, frequently exhibit variation in the length of their prereproductive period prior to flowering. If this life-history variation in flowering strategy has a genetic basis, genotype-by-environment interactions (G x E) may maintain phenotypic diversity in flowering strategy. The native monocarpic plant Common Evening Primrose (Oenothera biennis L., Onagraceae) exhibits phenotypic variation for annual vs. biennial flowering strategies. I tested whether there was a genetic basis to variation in flowering strategy in O. biennis, and whether environmental variation causes G x E that imposes variable selection on flowering strategy. In a field experiment, I randomized more than 900 plants from 14 clonal families (genotypes) into five distinct habitats that represented a natural productivity gradient. G x E strongly affected the lifetime fruit production of O. biennis, with the rank-order in relative fitness of genotypes changing substantially between habitats. I detected genetic variation in annual vs. biennial strategies in most habitats, as well as a G x E effect on flowering strategy. This variation in flowering strategy was correlated with genetic variation in relative fitness, and phenotypic and genotypic selection analyses revealed that environmental variation resulted in variable directional selection on annual vs. biennial strategies. Specifically, a biennial strategy was favoured in moderately productive environments, whereas an annual strategy was favoured in low-productivity environments. These results highlight the importance of variable selection for the maintenance of genetic variation in the life-history strategy of a monocarpic plant.

  5. Impact of menstruation on select hematology and clinical chemistry variables in cynomolgus macaques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perigard, Christopher J; Parrula, M Cecilia M; Larkin, Matthew H; Gleason, Carol R

    2016-06-01

    In preclinical studies with cynomolgus macaques, it is common to have one or more females presenting with menses. Published literature indicates that the blood lost during menses causes decreases in red blood cell mass variables (RBC, HGB, and HCT), which would be a confounding factor in the interpretation of drug-related effects on clinical pathology data, but no scientific data have been published to support this claim. This investigation was conducted to determine if the amount of blood lost during menses in cynomolgus macaques has an effect on routine hematology and serum chemistry variables. Ten female cynomolgus macaques (Macaca fascicularis), 5 to 6.5 years old, were observed daily during approximately 3 months (97 days) for the presence of menses. Hematology and serum chemistry variables were evaluated twice weekly. The results indicated that menstruation affects the erythrogram including RBC, HGB, HCT, MCHC, MCV, reticulocyte count, RDW, the leukogram including neutrophil, lymphocyte, and monocyte counts, and chemistry variables, including GGT activity, and the concentrations of total proteins, albumin, globulins, and calcium. The magnitude of the effect of menstruation on susceptible variables is dependent on the duration of the menstrual phase. Macaques with menstrual phases lasting ≥ 7 days are more likely to develop changes in variables related to chronic blood loss. In preclinical toxicology studies with cynomolgus macaques, interpretation of changes in several commonly evaluated hematology and serum chemistry variables requires adequate clinical observation and documentation concerning presence and duration of menses. There is a concern that macaques with long menstrual cycles can develop iron deficiency anemia due to chronic menstrual blood loss. © 2016 American Society for Veterinary Clinical Pathology.

  6. SEPARATION PHENOMENA LOGISTIC REGRESSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ikaro Daniel de Carvalho Barreto

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an application of concepts about the maximum likelihood estimation of the binomial logistic regression model to the separation phenomena. It generates bias in the estimation and provides different interpretations of the estimates on the different statistical tests (Wald, Likelihood Ratio and Score and provides different estimates on the different iterative methods (Newton-Raphson and Fisher Score. It also presents an example that demonstrates the direct implications for the validation of the model and validation of variables, the implications for estimates of odds ratios and confidence intervals, generated from the Wald statistics. Furthermore, we present, briefly, the Firth correction to circumvent the phenomena of separation.

  7. Correlation and simple linear regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Kelly H; Tuncali, Kemal; Silverman, Stuart G

    2003-06-01

    In this tutorial article, the concepts of correlation and regression are reviewed and demonstrated. The authors review and compare two correlation coefficients, the Pearson correlation coefficient and the Spearman rho, for measuring linear and nonlinear relationships between two continuous variables. In the case of measuring the linear relationship between a predictor and an outcome variable, simple linear regression analysis is conducted. These statistical concepts are illustrated by using a data set from published literature to assess a computed tomography-guided interventional technique. These statistical methods are important for exploring the relationships between variables and can be applied to many radiologic studies.

  8. Adaptive regression for modeling nonlinear relationships

    CERN Document Server

    Knafl, George J

    2016-01-01

    This book presents methods for investigating whether relationships are linear or nonlinear and for adaptively fitting appropriate models when they are nonlinear. Data analysts will learn how to incorporate nonlinearity in one or more predictor variables into regression models for different types of outcome variables. Such nonlinear dependence is often not considered in applied research, yet nonlinear relationships are common and so need to be addressed. A standard linear analysis can produce misleading conclusions, while a nonlinear analysis can provide novel insights into data, not otherwise possible. A variety of examples of the benefits of modeling nonlinear relationships are presented throughout the book. Methods are covered using what are called fractional polynomials based on real-valued power transformations of primary predictor variables combined with model selection based on likelihood cross-validation. The book covers how to formulate and conduct such adaptive fractional polynomial modeling in the s...

  9. Entrepreneurial intention modeling using hierarchical multiple regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Jeger

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study is to identify the contribution of effectuation dimensions to the predictive power of the entrepreneurial intention model over and above that which can be accounted for by other predictors selected and confirmed in previous studies. As is often the case in social and behavioral studies, some variables are likely to be highly correlated with each other. Therefore, the relative amount of variance in the criterion variable explained by each of the predictors depends on several factors such as the order of variable entry and sample specifics. The results show the modest predictive power of two dimensions of effectuation prior to the introduction of the theory of planned behavior elements. The article highlights the main advantages of applying hierarchical regression in social sciences as well as in the specific context of entrepreneurial intention formation, and addresses some of the potential pitfalls that this type of analysis entails.

  10. Using Variable Dwell Time to Accelerate Gaze-based Web Browsing with Two-step Selection

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Zhaokang; Shi, Bertram E.

    2017-01-01

    In order to avoid the "Midas Touch" problem, gaze-based interfaces for selection often introduce a dwell time: a fixed amount of time the user must fixate upon an object before it is selected. Past interfaces have used a uniform dwell time across all objects. Here, we propose an algorithm for adjusting the dwell times of different objects based on the inferred probability that the user intends to select them. In particular, we introduce a probabilistic model of natural gaze behavior while sur...

  11. Differentiating regressed melanoma from regressed lichenoid keratosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Aegean H; Shulman, Kenneth J; Lee, Bonnie A

    2017-04-01

    Distinguishing regressed lichen planus-like keratosis (LPLK) from regressed melanoma can be difficult on histopathologic examination, potentially resulting in mismanagement of patients. We aimed to identify histopathologic features by which regressed melanoma can be differentiated from regressed LPLK. Twenty actively inflamed LPLK, 12 LPLK with regression and 15 melanomas with regression were compared and evaluated by hematoxylin and eosin staining as well as Melan-A, microphthalmia transcription factor (MiTF) and cytokeratin (AE1/AE3) immunostaining. (1) A total of 40% of regressed melanomas showed complete or near complete loss of melanocytes within the epidermis with Melan-A and MiTF immunostaining, while 8% of regressed LPLK exhibited this finding. (2) Necrotic keratinocytes were seen in the epidermis in 33% regressed melanomas as opposed to all of the regressed LPLK. (3) A dense infiltrate of melanophages in the papillary dermis was seen in 40% of regressed melanomas, a feature not seen in regressed LPLK. In summary, our findings suggest that a complete or near complete loss of melanocytes within the epidermis strongly favors a regressed melanoma over a regressed LPLK. In addition, necrotic epidermal keratinocytes and the presence of a dense band-like distribution of dermal melanophages can be helpful in differentiating these lesions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Linear regression in astronomy. II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feigelson, Eric D.; Babu, Gutti J.

    1992-01-01

    A wide variety of least-squares linear regression procedures used in observational astronomy, particularly investigations of the cosmic distance scale, are presented and discussed. The classes of linear models considered are (1) unweighted regression lines, with bootstrap and jackknife resampling; (2) regression solutions when measurement error, in one or both variables, dominates the scatter; (3) methods to apply a calibration line to new data; (4) truncated regression models, which apply to flux-limited data sets; and (5) censored regression models, which apply when nondetections are present. For the calibration problem we develop two new procedures: a formula for the intercept offset between two parallel data sets, which propagates slope errors from one regression to the other; and a generalization of the Working-Hotelling confidence bands to nonstandard least-squares lines. They can provide improved error analysis for Faber-Jackson, Tully-Fisher, and similar cosmic distance scale relations.

  13. A method for the selection of a functional form for a thermodynamic equation of state using weighted linear least squares stepwise regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobsen, R. T.; Stewart, R. B.; Crain, R. W., Jr.; Rose, G. L.; Myers, A. F.

    1976-01-01

    A method was developed for establishing a rational choice of the terms to be included in an equation of state with a large number of adjustable coefficients. The methods presented were developed for use in the determination of an equation of state for oxygen and nitrogen. However, a general application of the methods is possible in studies involving the determination of an optimum polynomial equation for fitting a large number of data points. The data considered in the least squares problem are experimental thermodynamic pressure-density-temperature data. Attention is given to a description of stepwise multiple regression and the use of stepwise regression in the determination of an equation of state for oxygen and nitrogen.

  14. Robust Regression Procedures for Predictor Variable Outliers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-03-01

    space of probability dis- tributions. Then the influence function of the estimator is defined to be the derivative of the functional evaluated at the...measure of the impact of an outlier x0 on the estimator . . . . . .0 10 T(F) is the " influence function " which is defined to be T(F) - lirT(F")-T(F...positive and negative directions. An em- pirical influence function can be defined in a similar fashion simply by replacing F with F in eqn. (3.4).n

  15. Firefly as a novel swarm intelligence variable selection method in spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodarzi, Mohammad; dos Santos Coelho, Leandro

    2014-12-10

    A critical step in multivariate calibration is wavelength selection, which is used to build models with better prediction performance when applied to spectral data. Up to now, many feature selection techniques have been developed. Among all different types of feature selection techniques, those based on swarm intelligence optimization methodologies are more interesting since they are usually simulated based on animal and insect life behavior to, e.g., find the shortest path between a food source and their nests. This decision is made by a crowd, leading to a more robust model with less falling in local minima during the optimization cycle. This paper represents a novel feature selection approach to the selection of spectroscopic data, leading to more robust calibration models. The performance of the firefly algorithm, a swarm intelligence paradigm, was evaluated and compared with genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization. All three techniques were coupled with partial least squares (PLS) and applied to three spectroscopic data sets. They demonstrate improved prediction results in comparison to when only a PLS model was built using all wavelengths. Results show that firefly algorithm as a novel swarm paradigm leads to a lower number of selected wavelengths while the prediction performance of built PLS stays the same. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. AVC: Selecting discriminative features on basis of AUC by maximizing variable complementarity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Lei; Wang, Jun; Wei, Jinmao

    2017-03-14

    The Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve is well-known in evaluating classification performance in biomedical field. Owing to its superiority in dealing with imbalanced and cost-sensitive data, the ROC curve has been exploited as a popular metric to evaluate and find out disease-related genes (features). The existing ROC-based feature selection approaches are simple and effective in evaluating individual features. However, these approaches may fail to find real target feature subset due to their lack of effective means to reduce the redundancy between features, which is essential in machine learning. In this paper, we propose to assess feature complementarity by a trick of measuring the distances between the misclassified instances and their nearest misses on the dimensions of pairwise features. If a misclassified instance and its nearest miss on one feature dimension are far apart on another feature dimension, the two features are regarded as complementary to each other. Subsequently, we propose a novel filter feature selection approach on the basis of the ROC analysis. The new approach employs an efficient heuristic search strategy to select optimal features with highest complementarities. The experimental results on a broad range of microarray data sets validate that the classifiers built on the feature subset selected by our approach can get the minimal balanced error rate with a small amount of significant features. Compared with other ROC-based feature selection approaches, our new approach can select fewer features and effectively improve the classification performance.

  17. Hierarchical regression analysis in structural Equation Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, P.F.

    1999-01-01

    In a hierarchical or fixed-order regression analysis, the independent variables are entered into the regression equation in a prespecified order. Such an analysis is often performed when the extra amount of variance accounted for in a dependent variable by a specific independent variable is the main

  18. Modeling Linguistic Variables With Regression Models: Addressing Non-Gaussian Distributions, Non-independent Observations, and Non-linear Predictors With Random Effects and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coupé, Christophe

    2018-01-01

    As statistical approaches are getting increasingly used in linguistics, attention must be paid to the choice of methods and algorithms used. This is especially true since they require assumptions to be satisfied to provide valid results, and because scientific articles still often fall short of reporting whether such assumptions are met. Progress is being, however, made in various directions, one of them being the introduction of techniques able to model data that cannot be properly analyzed with simpler linear regression models. We report recent advances in statistical modeling in linguistics. We first describe linear mixed-effects regression models (LMM), which address grouping of observations, and generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMM), which offer a family of distributions for the dependent variable. Generalized additive models (GAM) are then introduced, which allow modeling non-linear parametric or non-parametric relationships between the dependent variable and the predictors. We then highlight the possibilities offered by generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS). We explain how they make it possible to go beyond common distributions, such as Gaussian or Poisson, and offer the appropriate inferential framework to account for 'difficult' variables such as count data with strong overdispersion. We also demonstrate how they offer interesting perspectives on data when not only the mean of the dependent variable is modeled, but also its variance, skewness, and kurtosis. As an illustration, the case of phonemic inventory size is analyzed throughout the article. For over 1,500 languages, we consider as predictors the number of speakers, the distance from Africa, an estimation of the intensity of language contact, and linguistic relationships. We discuss the use of random effects to account for genealogical relationships, the choice of appropriate distributions to model count data, and non-linear relationships. Relying on GAMLSS, we

  19. Modeling Linguistic Variables With Regression Models: Addressing Non-Gaussian Distributions, Non-independent Observations, and Non-linear Predictors With Random Effects and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christophe Coupé

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available As statistical approaches are getting increasingly used in linguistics, attention must be paid to the choice of methods and algorithms used. This is especially true since they require assumptions to be satisfied to provide valid results, and because scientific articles still often fall short of reporting whether such assumptions are met. Progress is being, however, made in various directions, one of them being the introduction of techniques able to model data that cannot be properly analyzed with simpler linear regression models. We report recent advances in statistical modeling in linguistics. We first describe linear mixed-effects regression models (LMM, which address grouping of observations, and generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMM, which offer a family of distributions for the dependent variable. Generalized additive models (GAM are then introduced, which allow modeling non-linear parametric or non-parametric relationships between the dependent variable and the predictors. We then highlight the possibilities offered by generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS. We explain how they make it possible to go beyond common distributions, such as Gaussian or Poisson, and offer the appropriate inferential framework to account for ‘difficult’ variables such as count data with strong overdispersion. We also demonstrate how they offer interesting perspectives on data when not only the mean of the dependent variable is modeled, but also its variance, skewness, and kurtosis. As an illustration, the case of phonemic inventory size is analyzed throughout the article. For over 1,500 languages, we consider as predictors the number of speakers, the distance from Africa, an estimation of the intensity of language contact, and linguistic relationships. We discuss the use of random effects to account for genealogical relationships, the choice of appropriate distributions to model count data, and non-linear relationships

  20. An Investigation of Selected Variables Related to Student Algebra I Performance in Mississippi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Undray

    2016-01-01

    This research study attempted to determine if specific variables were related to student performance on the Algebra I subject-area test. This study also sought to determine in which of grades 8, 9, or 10 students performed better on the Algebra I Subject Area Test. This study also investigated the different criteria that are used to schedule…

  1. Variable Selection Strategies for Small-area Estimation Using FIA Plots and Remotely Sensed Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew Lister; Rachel Riemann; James Westfall; Mike Hoppus

    2005-01-01

    The USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) unit maintains a network of tens of thousands of georeferenced forest inventory plots distributed across the United States. Data collected on these plots include direct measurements of tree diameter and height and other variables. We present a technique by which FIA plot data and coregistered...

  2. Cortical Response Variability as a Developmental Index of Selective Auditory Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strait, Dana L.; Slater, Jessica; Abecassis, Victor; Kraus, Nina

    2014-01-01

    Attention induces synchronicity in neuronal firing for the encoding of a given stimulus at the exclusion of others. Recently, we reported decreased variability in scalp-recorded cortical evoked potentials to attended compared with ignored speech in adults. Here we aimed to determine the developmental time course for this neural index of auditory…

  3. Variable selection for modelling effects of eutrophication on stream and river ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijboer, R.C.; Verdonschot, P.F.M.

    2004-01-01

    Models are needed for forecasting the effects of eutrophication on stream and river ecosystems. Most of the current models do not include differences in local stream characteristics and effects on the biota. To define the most important variables that should be used in a stream eutrophication model,

  4. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY IN ACROLEIN AND SELECT VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUNDS IN DETROIT, MICHIGAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    The variability in outdoor concentrations of acrolein, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX), and 1,3-butadiene was examined for data measured during summer 2004 of the Detroit Exposure and Aerosol Research Study (DEARS). Results for acrolein indicated no significant...

  5. Temporal variability of selected chemical and physical propertires of topsoil of three soil types

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jirků, V.; Kodešová, R.; Nikodem, A.; Mühlhanselová, M.; Žigová, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 15, - (2013) ISSN 1607-7962. [EGU General Assembly /10./. 07.04.2013-12.04.2013, Vienna] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA526/08/0434 Institutional support: RVO:67985831 Keywords : soil properties * soil types * temporal variability Subject RIV: DF - Soil Science http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2013/EGU2013-7650-1.pdf

  6. Total sulfur determination in residues of crude oil distillation using FT-IR/ATR and variable selection methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Aline Lima Hermes; Picoloto, Rochele Sogari; Mello, Paola de Azevedo; Ferrão, Marco Flores; dos Santos, Maria de Fátima Pereira; Guimarães, Regina Célia Lourenço; Müller, Edson Irineu; Flores, Erico Marlon Moraes

    2012-04-01

    Total sulfur concentration was determined in atmospheric residue (AR) and vacuum residue (VR) samples obtained from petroleum distillation process by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy with attenuated total reflectance (FT-IR/ATR) in association with chemometric methods. Calibration and prediction set consisted of 40 and 20 samples, respectively. Calibration models were developed using two variable selection models: interval partial least squares (iPLS) and synergy interval partial least squares (siPLS). Different treatments and pre-processing steps were also evaluated for the development of models. The pre-treatment based on multiplicative scatter correction (MSC) and the mean centered data were selected for models construction. The use of siPLS as variable selection method provided a model with root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) values significantly better than those obtained by PLS model using all variables. The best model was obtained using siPLS algorithm with spectra divided in 20 intervals and combinations of 3 intervals (911-824, 823-736 and 737-650 cm-1). This model produced a RMSECV of 400 mg kg-1 S and RMSEP of 420 mg kg-1 S, showing a correlation coefficient of 0.990.

  7. Gaussian process regression analysis for functional data

    CERN Document Server

    Shi, Jian Qing

    2011-01-01

    Gaussian Process Regression Analysis for Functional Data presents nonparametric statistical methods for functional regression analysis, specifically the methods based on a Gaussian process prior in a functional space. The authors focus on problems involving functional response variables and mixed covariates of functional and scalar variables.Covering the basics of Gaussian process regression, the first several chapters discuss functional data analysis, theoretical aspects based on the asymptotic properties of Gaussian process regression models, and new methodological developments for high dime

  8. Regression: A Bibliography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrini, D. T.; Pedrini, Bonnie C.

    Regression, another mechanism studied by Sigmund Freud, has had much research, e.g., hypnotic regression, frustration regression, schizophrenic regression, and infra-human-animal regression (often directly related to fixation). Many investigators worked with hypnotic age regression, which has a long history, going back to Russian reflexologists.…

  9. Logistic regression applied to natural hazards: rare event logistic regression with replications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Guns

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Statistical analysis of natural hazards needs particular attention, as most of these phenomena are rare events. This study shows that the ordinary rare event logistic regression, as it is now commonly used in geomorphologic studies, does not always lead to a robust detection of controlling factors, as the results can be strongly sample-dependent. In this paper, we introduce some concepts of Monte Carlo simulations in rare event logistic regression. This technique, so-called rare event logistic regression with replications, combines the strength of probabilistic and statistical methods, and allows overcoming some of the limitations of previous developments through robust variable selection. This technique was here developed for the analyses of landslide controlling factors, but the concept is widely applicable for statistical analyses of natural hazards.

  10. Logistic regression applied to natural hazards: rare event logistic regression with replications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guns, M.; Vanacker, V.

    2012-06-01

    Statistical analysis of natural hazards needs particular attention, as most of these phenomena are rare events. This study shows that the ordinary rare event logistic regression, as it is now commonly used in geomorphologic studies, does not always lead to a robust detection of controlling factors, as the results can be strongly sample-dependent. In this paper, we introduce some concepts of Monte Carlo simulations in rare event logistic regression. This technique, so-called rare event logistic regression with replications, combines the strength of probabilistic and statistical methods, and allows overcoming some of the limitations of previous developments through robust variable selection. This technique was here developed for the analyses of landslide controlling factors, but the concept is widely applicable for statistical analyses of natural hazards.

  11. Mixed Frequency Data Sampling Regression Models: The R Package midasr

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Ghysels

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available When modeling economic relationships it is increasingly common to encounter data sampled at different frequencies. We introduce the R package midasr which enables estimating regression models with variables sampled at different frequencies within a MIDAS regression framework put forward in work by Ghysels, Santa-Clara, and Valkanov (2002. In this article we define a general autoregressive MIDAS regression model with multiple variables of different frequencies and show how it can be specified using the familiar R formula interface and estimated using various optimization methods chosen by the researcher. We discuss how to check the validity of the estimated model both in terms of numerical convergence and statistical adequacy of a chosen regression specification, how to perform model selection based on a information criterion, how to assess forecasting accuracy of the MIDAS regression model and how to obtain a forecast aggregation of different MIDAS regression models. We illustrate the capabilities of the package with a simulated MIDAS regression model and give two empirical examples of application of MIDAS regression.

  12. A variational conformational dynamics approach to the selection of collective variables in metadynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarty, James; Parrinello, Michele

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we combine two powerful computational techniques, well-tempered metadynamics and time-lagged independent component analysis. The aim is to develop a new tool for studying rare events and exploring complex free energy landscapes. Metadynamics is a well-established and widely used enhanced sampling method whose efficiency depends on an appropriate choice of collective variables. Often the initial choice is not optimal leading to slow convergence. However by analyzing the dynamics generated in one such run with a time-lagged independent component analysis and the techniques recently developed in the area of conformational dynamics, we obtain much more efficient collective variables that are also better capable of illuminating the physics of the system. We demonstrate the power of this approach in two paradigmatic examples.

  13. Identifying market segments in consumer markets: variable selection and data interpretation

    OpenAIRE

    Tonks, D G

    2004-01-01

    Market segmentation is often articulated as being a process which displays the recognised features of classical rationalism but in part; convention, convenience, prior experience and the overarching impact of rhetoric will influence if not determine the outcomes of a segmentation exercise. Particular examples of this process are addressed critically in this paper which concentrates on the issues of variable choice for multivariate approaches to market segmentation and also the methods used fo...

  14. Variability in dose estimates associated with the food-chain transport and ingestion of selected radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Gardner, R.H.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1982-06-01

    Dose predictions for the ingestion of 90 Sr and 137 Cs, using aquatic and terrestrial food chain transport models similar to those in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Regulatory Guide 1.109, are evaluated through estimating the variability of model parameters and determining the effect of this variability on model output. The variability in the predicted dose equivalent is determined using analytical and numerical procedures. In addition, a detailed discussion is included on 90 Sr dosimetry. The overall estimates of uncertainty are most relevant to conditions where site-specific data is unavailable and when model structure and parameter estimates are unbiased. Based on the comparisons performed in this report, it is concluded that the use of the generic default parameters in Regulatory Guide 1.109 will usually produce conservative dose estimates that exceed the 90th percentile of the predicted distribution of dose equivalents. An exception is the meat pathway for 137 Cs, in which use of generic default values results in a dose estimate at the 24th percentile. Among the terrestrial pathways of exposure, the non-leafy vegetable pathway is the most important for 90 Sr. For 90 Sr, the parameters for soil retention, soil-to-plant transfer, and internal dosimetry contribute most significantly to the variability in the predicted dose for the combined exposure to all terrestrial pathways. For 137 Cs, the meat transfer coefficient the mass interception factor for pasture forage, and the ingestion dose factor are the most important parameters. The freshwater finfish bioaccumulation factor is the most important parameter for the dose prediction of 90 Sr and 137 Cs transported over the water-fish-man pathway

  15. Developing a NIR multispectral imaging for prediction and visualization of peanut protein content using variable selection algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun-Hu; Jin, Huali; Liu, Zhiwei

    2018-01-01

    The feasibility of developing a multispectral imaging method using important wavelengths from hyperspectral images selected by genetic algorithm (GA), successive projection algorithm (SPA) and regression coefficient (RC) methods for modeling and predicting protein content in peanut kernel was investigated for the first time. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) calibration model was established between the spectral data from the selected optimal wavelengths and the reference measured protein content ranged from 23.46% to 28.43%. The RC-PLSR model established using eight key wavelengths (1153, 1567, 1972, 2143, 2288, 2339, 2389 and 2446 nm) showed the best predictive results with the coefficient of determination of prediction (R2P) of 0.901, and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.108 and residual predictive deviation (RPD) of 2.32. Based on the obtained best model and image processing algorithms, the distribution maps of protein content were generated. The overall results of this study indicated that developing a rapid and online multispectral imaging system using the feature wavelengths and PLSR analysis is potential and feasible for determination of the protein content in peanut kernels.

  16. Empirically Driven Variable Selection for the Estimation of Causal Effects with Observational Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Bryan; Chen, Jianshen

    2016-01-01

    Observational studies are common in educational research, where subjects self-select or are otherwise non-randomly assigned to different interventions (e.g., educational programs, grade retention, special education). Unbiased estimation of a causal effect with observational data depends crucially on the assumption of ignorability, which specifies…

  17. Computed ABC Analysis for Rational Selection of Most Informative Variables in Multivariate Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ultsch, Alfred; Lötsch, Jörn

    2015-01-01

    Multivariate data sets often differ in several factors or derived statistical parameters, which have to be selected for a valid interpretation. Basing this selection on traditional statistical limits leads occasionally to the perception of losing information from a data set. This paper proposes a novel method for calculating precise limits for the selection of parameter sets. The algorithm is based on an ABC analysis and calculates these limits on the basis of the mathematical properties of the distribution of the analyzed items. The limits implement the aim of any ABC analysis, i.e., comparing the increase in yield to the required additional effort. In particular, the limit for set A, the "important few", is optimized in a way that both, the effort and the yield for the other sets (B and C), are minimized and the additional gain is optimized. As a typical example from biomedical research, the feasibility of the ABC analysis as an objective replacement for classical subjective limits to select highly relevant variance components of pain thresholds is presented. The proposed method improved the biological interpretation of the results and increased the fraction of valid information that was obtained from the experimental data. The method is applicable to many further biomedical problems including the creation of diagnostic complex biomarkers or short screening tests from comprehensive test batteries. Thus, the ABC analysis can be proposed as a mathematically valid replacement for traditional limits to maximize the information obtained from multivariate research data.

  18. The study of variability and strain selection in Streptomyces atroolivaceus. III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blumauerova, M.; Lipavska, H.; Stajner, K.; Vanek, Z.

    1976-01-01

    Mutants of Streptomyces atroolivaceus blocked in the biosynthesis of mithramycin were isolated both by natural selection and after treatment with mutagenic factors (UV and gamma rays, nitrous acid). Both physical factors were more effective than nitrous acid. The selection was complicated by the high instability of isolates, out of which 20 to 80%=. (depending on their origin) reversed spontaneously to the parent type. Primary screening (selection of morphological variants and determination of their activity using the method of agar blocks) made it possible to detect only potentially non-productive strains; however, the final selection always had to be made under submerged conditions. Fifty-four stable non-productive mutants were divided, according to results of the chromatographic analysis, into five groups differing in the production of the six biologically inactive metabolites. The mutants did not accumulate chromomycinone, chromocyclomycin and chromocyclin. On mixed cultivation none of the pairs of mutants was capable of the cosynthesis of mithramycin or of new compounds differing from standard metabolites. Possible causes of the above results are discussed. (author)

  19. COPD phenotypes on computed tomography and its correlation with selected lung function variables in severe patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    da Silva SMD

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Silvia Maria Doria da Silva, Ilma Aparecida Paschoal, Eduardo Mello De Capitani, Marcos Mello Moreira, Luciana Campanatti Palhares, Mônica Corso PereiraPneumology Service, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medical Sciences, State University of Campinas (UNICAMP, Campinas, São Paulo, BrazilBackground: Computed tomography (CT phenotypic characterization helps in understanding the clinical diversity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD patients, but its clinical relevance and its relationship with functional features are not clarified. Volumetric capnography (VC uses the principle of gas washout and analyzes the pattern of CO2 elimination as a function of expired volume. The main variables analyzed were end-tidal concentration of carbon dioxide (ETCO2, Slope of phase 2 (Slp2, and Slope of phase 3 (Slp3 of capnogram, the curve which represents the total amount of CO2 eliminated by the lungs during each breath.Objective: To investigate, in a group of patients with severe COPD, if the phenotypic analysis by CT could identify different subsets of patients, and if there was an association of CT findings and functional variables.Subjects and methods: Sixty-five patients with COPD Gold III–IV were admitted for clinical evaluation, high-resolution CT, and functional evaluation (spirometry, 6-minute walk test [6MWT], and VC. The presence and profusion of tomography findings were evaluated, and later, the patients were identified as having emphysema (EMP or airway disease (AWD phenotype. EMP and AWD groups were compared; tomography findings scores were evaluated versus spirometric, 6MWT, and VC variables.Results: Bronchiectasis was found in 33.8% and peribronchial thickening in 69.2% of the 65 patients. Structural findings of airways had no significant correlation with spirometric variables. Air trapping and EMP were strongly correlated with VC variables, but in opposite directions. There was some overlap between the EMP and AWD

  20. Characterization of Machine Variability and Progressive Heat Treatment in Selective Laser Melting of Inconel 718

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prater, Tracie; Tilson, Will; Jones, Zack

    2015-01-01

    The absence of an economy of scale in spaceflight hardware makes additive manufacturing an immensely attractive option for propulsion components. As additive manufacturing techniques are increasingly adopted by government and industry to produce propulsion hardware in human-rated systems, significant development efforts are needed to establish these methods as reliable alternatives to conventional subtractive manufacturing. One of the critical challenges facing powder bed fusion techniques in this application is variability between machines used to perform builds. Even with implementation of robust process controls, it is possible for two machines operating at identical parameters with equivalent base materials to produce specimens with slightly different material properties. The machine variability study presented here evaluates 60 specimens of identical geometry built using the same parameters. 30 samples were produced on machine 1 (M1) and the other 30 samples were built on machine 2 (M2). Each of the 30-sample sets were further subdivided into three subsets (with 10 specimens in each subset) to assess the effect of progressive heat treatment on machine variability. The three categories for post-processing were: stress relief, stress relief followed by hot isostatic press (HIP), and stress relief followed by HIP followed by heat treatment per AMS 5664. Each specimen (a round, smooth tensile) was mechanically tested per ASTM E8. Two formal statistical techniques, hypothesis testing for equivalency of means and one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), were applied to characterize the impact of machine variability and heat treatment on six material properties: tensile stress, yield stress, modulus of elasticity, fracture elongation, and reduction of area. This work represents the type of development effort that is critical as NASA, academia, and the industrial base work collaboratively to establish a path to certification for additively manufactured parts. For future

  1. Prediction of unwanted pregnancies using logistic regression, probit regression and discriminant analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimzadeh, Farzad; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim; Vahabi, Nasim; Almasian, Mohammad; Bakhteyar, Katayoon

    2015-01-01

    Unwanted pregnancy not intended by at least one of the parents has undesirable consequences for the family and the society. In the present study, three classification models were used and compared to predict unwanted pregnancies in an urban population. In this cross-sectional study, 887 pregnant mothers referring to health centers in Khorramabad, Iran, in 2012 were selected by the stratified and cluster sampling; relevant variables were measured and for prediction of unwanted pregnancy, logistic regression, discriminant analysis, and probit regression models and SPSS software version 21 were used. To compare these models, indicators such as sensitivity, specificity, the area under the ROC curve, and the percentage of correct predictions were used. The prevalence of unwanted pregnancies was 25.3%. The logistic and probit regression models indicated that parity and pregnancy spacing, contraceptive methods, household income and number of living male children were related to unwanted pregnancy. The performance of the models based on the area under the ROC curve was 0.735, 0.733, and 0.680 for logistic regression, probit regression, and linear discriminant analysis, respectively. Given the relatively high prevalence of unwanted pregnancies in Khorramabad, it seems necessary to revise family planning programs. Despite the similar accuracy of the models, if the researcher is interested in the interpretability of the results, the use of the logistic regression model is recommended.

  2. Regression Models For Multivariate Count Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yiwen; Zhou, Hua; Zhou, Jin; Sun, Wei

    2017-01-01

    Data with multivariate count responses frequently occur in modern applications. The commonly used multinomial-logit model is limiting due to its restrictive mean-variance structure. For instance, analyzing count data from the recent RNA-seq technology by the multinomial-logit model leads to serious errors in hypothesis testing. The ubiquity of over-dispersion and complicated correlation structures among multivariate counts calls for more flexible regression models. In this article, we study some generalized linear models that incorporate various correlation structures among the counts. Current literature lacks a treatment of these models, partly due to the fact that they do not belong to the natural exponential family. We study the estimation, testing, and variable selection for these models in a unifying framework. The regression models are compared on both synthetic and real RNA-seq data.

  3. Select injury-related variables are affected by stride length and foot strike style during running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Elizabeth R; Derrick, Timothy R

    2015-09-01

    Some frontal plane and transverse plane variables have been associated with running injury, but it is not known if they differ with foot strike style or as stride length is shortened. To identify if step width, iliotibial band strain and strain rate, positive and negative free moment, pelvic drop, hip adduction, knee internal rotation, and rearfoot eversion differ between habitual rearfoot and habitual mid-/forefoot strikers when running with both a rearfoot strike (RFS) and a mid-/forefoot strike (FFS) at 3 stride lengths. Controlled laboratory study. A total of 42 healthy runners (21 habitual rearfoot, 21 habitual mid-/forefoot) ran overground at 3.35 m/s with both a RFS and a FFS at their preferred stride lengths and 5% and 10% shorter. Variables did not differ between habitual groups. Step width was 1.5 cm narrower for FFS, widening to 0.8 cm as stride length shortened. Iliotibial band strain and strain rate did not differ between foot strikes but decreased as stride length shortened (0.3% and 1.8%/s, respectively). Pelvic drop was reduced 0.7° for FFS compared with RFS, and both pelvic drop and hip adduction decreased as stride length shortened (0.8° and 1.5°, respectively). Peak knee internal rotation was not affected by foot strike or stride length. Peak rearfoot eversion was not different between foot strikes but decreased 0.6° as stride length shortened. Peak positive free moment (normalized to body weight [BW] and height [h]) was not affected by foot strike or stride length. Peak negative free moment was -0.0038 BW·m/h greater for FFS and decreased -0.0004 BW·m/h as stride length shortened. The small decreases in most variables as stride length shortened were likely associated with the concomitant wider step width. RFS had slightly greater pelvic drop, while FFS had slightly narrower step width and greater negative free moment. Shortening one's stride length may decrease or at least not increase propensity for running injuries based on the variables

  4. Effect of Integrated Yoga Module on Selected Psychological Variables among Women with Anxiety Problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parthasarathy, S; Jaiganesh, K; Duraisamy

    2014-01-01

    The implementation of yogic practices has proven benefits in both organic and psychological diseases. Forty-five women with anxiety selected by a random sampling method were divided into three groups. Experimental group I was subjected to asanas, relaxation and pranayama while Experimental group II was subjected to an integrated yoga module. The control group did not receive any intervention. Anxiety was measured by Taylor's Manifest Anxiety Scale before and after treatment. Frustration was measured through Reaction to Frustration Scale. All data were spread in an Excel sheet to be analysed with SPSS 16 software using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). Selected yoga and asanas decreased anxiety and frustration scores but treatment with an integrated yoga module resulted in significant reduction of anxiety and frustration. To conclude, the practice of asanas and yoga decreased anxiety in women, and yoga as an integrated module significantly improved anxiety scores in young women with proven anxiety without any ill effects.

  5. Induction and selection of superior genetic variables of oil seed rape (brassica napus L.)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, S.S.; Ali, I.; Rehman, K.

    1990-01-01

    Dry and uniform seeds of two rape seed varieties, Ganyou-5 and Tower, were subjected to different doses of gamma rays. Genetic variation in yield and yield components generated in M1 was studied in M2 and 30 useful variants were isolated from a large magnetized population. The selected mutants were progeny tested for stability of the characters in M3. Only five out of 30 progenies were identified to be uniform and stable. Further selection was made in the segregating m3 progenies. Results on some of the promising mutants are reported. The effect of irradiation treatment was highly pronounced on pod length, seeds per pod and 1000-seed weight. The genetic changes thus induced would help to evolve high yielding versions of different rape seed varieties under local environmental conditions. (author)

  6. Travelling green : Variables influencing students’ intention to select a green hotel

    OpenAIRE

    Lindqvist, Julia; Andersson, Mikaela

    2015-01-01

    Problematization: Tourism has a major impact on the environment. However, there is a conflict of interest making it difficult for the hotel business to decrease this impact. On the one hand, there is a pressure for environmentally friendly behaviour from society. On the other hand, the customers want to be pampered during their hotel stay. This makes it necessary to further investigate what influences customers’ intention to select a green hotel. Therefore this thesis examines students’ inten...

  7. Modeling Student Performance in Mathematics Using Binary Logistic Regression at Selected Secondary Schools a Case Study of Mtwara Municipality and Ilemela District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mabula, Salyungu

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the performance of secondary school students in Mathematics at the Selected Secondary Schools in Mtwara Municipality and Ilemela District by Absenteeism, Conduct, Type of School and Gender as explanatory Factors. The data used in the study was collected from documented records of 250 form three students with 1:1 gender…

  8. A systematic review-meta-analysis and meta-regression on the effect of selected competitive exclusion products on Salmonella spp. prevalence and concentration in broiler chickens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Ashley K; Farrar, Ashley M; Waddell, Lisa A; Wilkins, Wendy; Wilhelm, Barbara J; Bucher, Oliver; Wills, Robert W; Bailey, R Hart; Varga, Csaba; McEwen, Scott A; Rajić, Andrijana

    2013-08-01

    The effectiveness of various competitive exclusion (CE) products for reducing Salmonella colonization in broiler chickens was evaluated using systematic review-meta-analysis-meta-regression (SR-MA-MR). Relevance screening identified 201 relevant studies that were subjected to methodological assessment. Of these studies, 159 were suitable for data extraction, 66 were presented in a number of MAs and 130 were examined in a meta-regression (MR). Fourteen different CE products were identified, 9 of them commercial products, and the most common route of administration was oral gavage (63.7% of trials). Meta-analyses indicated that a number of CE products reduce Salmonella colonization in broilers, the most effective one being Preempt™ which was formerly known as CF-3. Five study characteristics (publication year, CE type, CE route, sample origin, and Salmonella serovar administered/recovered) and three methodological soundness characteristics (treatment assignment, intervention and laboratory methods description) were retained as statistically significant (pchicken source CE culture products in effectiveness. The administration of CE through spraying the chicks at the hatchery was determined to be just as effective as the oral gavage treatment, and more practical for farmers to administer. The results of this study could be useful in decision-making concerning the on-farm use of CE products in broiler chickens, and as inputs for risk assessments as the industry pushes for more antibiotic-free alternatives. Out of the various interventions to reduce Salmonella colonization in broilers on-farm, CE was the most studied; its inability to be licenced in certain countries and proof of consistent efficacy remains a barrier. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. The effect of aquatic plyometric training with and without resistance on selected physical fitness variables among volleyball players

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. KAMALAKKANNAN

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of aquatic plyometric training with and without the use ofweights on selected physical fitness variables among volleyball players. To achieve the purpose of these study 36physically active undergraduate volleyball players between 18 and 20 years of age volunteered as participants.The participants were randomly categorized into three groups of 12 each: a control group (CG, an aquaticPlyometric training with weight group (APTWG, and an aquatic Plyometric training without weight group(APTWOG. The subjects of the control group were not exposed to any training. Both experimental groupsunderwent their respective experimental treatment for 12 weeks, 3 days per week and a single session on eachday. Speed, endurance, and explosive power were measured as the dependent variables for this study. 36 days ofexperimental treatment was conducted for all the groups and pre and post data was collected. The collected datawere analyzed using an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA and followed by a Scheffé’s post hoc test. The resultsrevealed significant differences between groups on all the selected dependent variables. This study demonstratedthat aquatic plyometric training can be one effective means for improving speed, endurance, and explosivepower in volley ball players

  10. Neuronal Intra-Individual Variability Masks Response Selection Differences between ADHD Subtypes—A Need to Change Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annet Bluschke

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Due to the high intra-individual variability in attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD, there may be considerable bias in knowledge about altered neurophysiological processes underlying executive dysfunctions in patients with different ADHD subtypes. When aiming to establish dimensional cognitive-neurophysiological constructs representing symptoms of ADHD as suggested by the initiative for Research Domain Criteria, it is crucial to consider such processes independent of variability. We examined patients with the predominantly inattentive subtype (attention deficit disorder, ADD and the combined subtype of ADHD (ADHD-C in a flanker task measuring conflict control. Groups were matched for task performance. Besides using classic event-related potential (ERP techniques and source localization, neurophysiological data was also analyzed using residue iteration decomposition (RIDE to statistically account for intra-individual variability and S-LORETA to estimate the sources of the activations. The analysis of classic ERPs related to conflict monitoring revealed no differences between patients with ADD and ADHD-C. When individual variability was accounted for, clear differences became apparent in the RIDE C-cluster (analog to the P3 ERP-component. While patients with ADD distinguished between compatible and incompatible flanker trials early on, patients with ADHD-C seemed to employ more cognitive resources overall. These differences are reflected in inferior parietal areas. The study demonstrates differences in neuronal mechanisms related to response selection processes between ADD and ADHD-C which, according to source localization, arise from the inferior parietal cortex. Importantly, these differences could only be detected when accounting for intra-individual variability. The results imply that it is very likely that differences in neurophysiological processes between ADHD subtypes are underestimated and have not been recognized because intra

  11. Significance testing in ridge regression for genetic data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    De Iorio Maria

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Technological developments have increased the feasibility of large scale genetic association studies. Densely typed genetic markers are obtained using SNP arrays, next-generation sequencing technologies and imputation. However, SNPs typed using these methods can be highly correlated due to linkage disequilibrium among them, and standard multiple regression techniques fail with these data sets due to their high dimensionality and correlation structure. There has been increasing interest in using penalised regression in the analysis of high dimensional data. Ridge regression is one such penalised regression technique which does not perform variable selection, instead estimating a regression coefficient for each predictor variable. It is therefore desirable to obtain an estimate of the significance of each ridge regression coefficient. Results We develop and evaluate a test of significance for ridge regression coefficients. Using simulation studies, we demonstrate that the performance of the test is comparable to that of a permutation test, with the advantage of a much-reduced computational cost. We introduce the p-value trace, a plot of the negative logarithm of the p-values of ridge regression coefficients with increasing shrinkage parameter, which enables the visualisation of the change in p-value of the regression coefficients with increasing penalisation. We apply the proposed method to a lung cancer case-control data set from EPIC, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Conclusions The proposed test is a useful alternative to a permutation test for the estimation of the significance of ridge regression coefficients, at a much-reduced computational cost. The p-value trace is an informative graphical tool for evaluating the results of a test of significance of ridge regression coefficients as the shrinkage parameter increases, and the proposed test makes its production computationally feasible.

  12. Robust portfolio selection based on asymmetric measures of variability of stock returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei; Tan, Shaohua

    2009-10-01

    This paper addresses a new uncertainty set--interval random uncertainty set for robust optimization. The form of interval random uncertainty set makes it suitable for capturing the downside and upside deviations of real-world data. These deviation measures capture distributional asymmetry and lead to better optimization results. We also apply our interval random chance-constrained programming to robust mean-variance portfolio selection under interval random uncertainty sets in the elements of mean vector and covariance matrix. Numerical experiments with real market data indicate that our approach results in better portfolio performance.

  13. Quantile Regression Analysis of the Distributional Effects of Air Pollution on Blood Pressure, Heart Rate Variability, Blood Lipids, and Biomarkers of Inflammation in Elderly American Men: The Normative Aging Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bind, Marie-Abele; Peters, Annette; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel

    2016-08-01

    Previous studies have observed associations between air pollution and heart disease. Susceptibility to air pollution effects has been examined mostly with a test of effect modification, but little evidence is available whether air pollution distorts cardiovascular risk factor distribution. This paper aims to examine distributional and heterogeneous effects of air pollution on known cardiovascular biomarkers. A total of 1,112 men from the Normative Aging Study and residents of the greater Boston, Massachusetts, area with mean age of 69 years at baseline were included in this study during the period 1995-2013. We used quantile regression and random slope models to investigate distributional effects and heterogeneity in the traffic-related responses on blood pressure, heart rate variability, repolarization, lipids, and inflammation. We considered 28-day averaged exposure to particle number, PM2.5 black carbon, and PM2.5 mass concentrations (measured at a single monitor near the site of the study visits). We observed some evidence suggesting distributional effects of traffic-related pollutants on systolic blood pressure, heart rate variability, corrected QT interval, low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, triglyceride, and intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1). For example, among participants with LDL cholesterol below 80 mg/dL, an interquartile range increase in PM2.5 black carbon exposure was associated with a 7-mg/dL (95% CI: 5, 10) increase in LDL cholesterol, while among subjects with LDL cholesterol levels close to 160 mg/dL, the same exposure was related to a 16-mg/dL (95% CI: 13, 20) increase in LDL cholesterol. We observed similar heterogeneous associations across low versus high percentiles of the LDL distribution for PM2.5 mass and particle number. These results suggest that air pollution distorts the distribution of cardiovascular risk factors, and that, for several outcomes, effects may be greatest among individuals who are already at high risk

  14. Conflict Management Styles of Selected Managers and Their Relationship With Management and Organization Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Concepcion Martires

    1990-12-01

    Full Text Available This study sought to determine the relationship between the conflict management styles of managers and certain management and organization factors. A total of 462 top, middle, and lower managers from 72 companies participated in the study which utilized the Thomas-Killman Conflict Mode Instrument. To facilitate the computation of the statistical data, a microcomputer and a software package was used.The majority of the managers of the 17 types of organization included in the study use collaborative mode of managing conflict. This finding is congruent with the findings of past studies conducted on managers of commercial banks, service, manufacturing, trading advertising, appliance, investment houses, and overseas recruitment industries showing their high degree of objectivity and assertiveness of their own personal goals and of other people's concerns. The second dominant style, which is compromising, indicates their desire in sharing and searching for solutions that result in satisfaction among conflicting parties. This finding is highly consistent with the strong Filipino value of smooth interpersonal relationships (SIR as reflected and discussed in the numerous researches on Filipino values.The chi-square tests generated by the computer package in statistics showed independence between the manager's conflict management styles and each of the variables of sex, civil status, position level at work, work experience, type of corporation, and number of subordinates. This result is again congruent with those of past studies conducted in the Philippines. The past and present findings may imply that conflict management mode may be a highly personal style that is not dependent on any of these variables included in the study. However, the chi-square tests show that management style is dependent on the manager's age and educational attainment.

  15. Identification of solid state fermentation degree with FT-NIR spectroscopy: Comparison of wavelength variable selection methods of CARS and SCARS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Hui; Zhang, Hang; Chen, Quansheng; Mei, Congli; Liu, Guohai

    2015-10-01

    The use of wavelength variable selection before partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) for qualitative identification of solid state fermentation degree by FT-NIR spectroscopy technique was investigated in this study. Two wavelength variable selection methods including competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (CARS) and stability competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (SCARS) were employed to select the important wavelengths. PLS-DA was applied to calibrate identified model using selected wavelength variables by CARS and SCARS for identification of solid state fermentation degree. Experimental results showed that the number of selected wavelength variables by CARS and SCARS were 58 and 47, respectively, from the 1557 original wavelength variables. Compared with the results of full-spectrum PLS-DA, the two wavelength variable selection methods both could enhance the performance of identified models. Meanwhile, compared with CARS-PLS-DA model, the SCARS-PLS-DA model achieved better results with the identification rate of 91.43% in the validation process. The overall results sufficiently demonstrate the PLS-DA model constructed using selected wavelength variables by a proper wavelength variable method can be more accurate identification of solid state fermentation degree.

  16. Emergency department documentation templates: variability in template selection and association with physical examination and test ordering in dizziness presentations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meurer William J

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical documentation systems, such as templates, have been associated with process utilization. The T-System emergency department (ED templates are widely used but lacking are analyses of the templates association with processes. This system is also unique because of the many different template options available, and thus the selection of the template may also be important. We aimed to describe the selection of templates in ED dizziness presentations and to investigate the association between items on templates and process utilization. Methods Dizziness visits were captured from a population-based study of EDs that use documentation templates. Two relevant process outcomes were assessed: head computerized tomography (CT scan and nystagmus examination. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the probability of each outcome for patients who did or did not receive a relevant-item template. Propensity scores were also used to adjust for selection effects. Results The final cohort was 1,485 visits. Thirty-one different templates were used. Use of a template with a head CT item was associated with an increase in the adjusted probability of head CT utilization from 12.2% (95% CI, 8.9%-16.6% to 29.3% (95% CI, 26.0%-32.9%. The adjusted probability of documentation of a nystagmus assessment increased from 12.0% (95%CI, 8.8%-16.2% when a nystagmus-item template was not used to 95.0% (95% CI, 92.8%-96.6% when a nystagmus-item template was used. The associations remained significant after propensity score adjustments. Conclusions Providers use many different templates in dizziness presentations. Important differences exist in the various templates and the template that is used likely impacts process utilization, even though selection may be arbitrary. The optimal design and selection of templates may offer a feasible and effective opportunity to improve care delivery.

  17. SEASONAL VARIABILITY OF SELECTED NUTRIENTS IN THE WATERS OF LAKES NIEPRUSZEWSKIE, PAMIATKOWSKIE AND STRYKOWSKIE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Zbierska

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the evaluation of seasonal and long-term changes in selected nutrients of three lakes of the Poznań Lakeland. The lakes were selected due to the high risk of pollution from agricultural and residential areas. Water samples were taken in 6 control points in the spring, summer and autumn, from 2004 to 2014. Trophic status of the lakes was evaluated based on the concentration of nutrients (nitrates, nitrites, ammonium, nitrogen and phosphorus and indicators of eutrophication. Studies have shown that the concentration of nutrients varied greatly both in individual years and seasons of the analyzed decades, especially in Lakes Niepruszewskie and Pamiątkowskie. The main problem is the high concentration of nitrates. In general, it showed an upward trend until 2013, especially in the spring. This may indicate that actions restricting runoff pollution from agricultural sources have not been fully effective. On the other hand, a marked downward trend in the concentrations of NH4 over the years from 2004 to 2014, especially after 2007, indicates a gradual improvement of wastewater management. Moreover, seasonal variation in NH4 concentrations differed from those of NO3 and NO2. The highest values were reported in the autumn season, the lowest in the summer. Concentrations of nutrients and eutrophication indexes reached high values in all analysed lakes, indicating a eutrophic or hypertrophic state of the lakes. The high value of the N:P ratio indicates that the lakes had a huge surplus of nitrogen, and phosphorus is a productivity limiting factor.

  18. A Variable Service Broker Routing Policy for data center selection in cloud analyst

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad M. Manasrah

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing depends on sharing distributed computing resources to handle different services such as servers, storage and applications. The applications and infrastructures are provided as pay per use services through data center to the end user. The data centers are located at different geographic locations. However, these data centers can get overloaded with the increase number of client applications being serviced at the same time and location; this will degrade the overall QoS of the distributed services. Since different user applications may require different configuration and requirements, measuring the user applications performance of various resources is challenging. The service provider cannot make decisions for the right level of resources. Therefore, we propose a Variable Service Broker Routing Policy – VSBRP, which is a heuristic-based technique that aims to achieve minimum response time through considering the communication channel bandwidth, latency and the size of the job. The proposed service broker policy will also reduce the overloading of the data centers by redirecting the user requests to the next data center that yields better response and processing time. The simulation shows promising results in terms of response and processing time compared to other known broker policies from the literature.

  19. Bias and Stability of Single Variable Classifiers for Feature Ranking and Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakhraei, Shobeir; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid; Fotouhi, Farshad

    2014-11-01

    Feature rankings are often used for supervised dimension reduction especially when discriminating power of each feature is of interest, dimensionality of dataset is extremely high, or computational power is limited to perform more complicated methods. In practice, it is recommended to start dimension reduction via simple methods such as feature rankings before applying more complex approaches. Single Variable Classifier (SVC) ranking is a feature ranking based on the predictive performance of a classifier built using only a single feature. While benefiting from capabilities of classifiers, this ranking method is not as computationally intensive as wrappers. In this paper, we report the results of an extensive study on the bias and stability of such feature ranking method. We study whether the classifiers influence the SVC rankings or the discriminative power of features themselves has a dominant impact on the final rankings. We show the common intuition of using the same classifier for feature ranking and final classification does not always result in the best prediction performance. We then study if heterogeneous classifiers ensemble approaches provide more unbiased rankings and if they improve final classification performance. Furthermore, we calculate an empirical prediction performance loss for using the same classifier in SVC feature ranking and final classification from the optimal choices.

  20. Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwayemi, Akin; Fowowe, Babajide

    2011-01-01

    The impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomy has received a great deal of attention since the 1970 s. Initially, many empirical studies found a significant negative effect between oil price shocks and GDP but more recently, empirical studies have reported an insignificant relationship between oil shocks and the macroeconomy. A key feature of existing research is that it applies predominantly to advanced, oil-importing countries. For oil-exporting countries, different conclusions are expected but this can only be ascertained empirically. This study conducts an empirical analysis of the effects of oil price shocks on a developing country oil-exporter - Nigeria. Our findings showed that oil price shocks do not have a major impact on most macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. The results of the Granger-causality tests, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition analysis all showed that different measures of linear and positive oil shocks have not caused output, government expenditure, inflation, and the real exchange rate. The tests support the existence of asymmetric effects of oil price shocks because we find that negative oil shocks significantly cause output and the real exchange rate. (author)

  1. On the selection of significant variables in a model for the deteriorating process of facades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrat, C.; Gibert, V.; Casas, J. R.; Rapinski, J.

    2017-10-01

    In previous works the authors of this paper have introduced a predictive system that uses survival analysis techniques for the study of time-to-failure in the facades of a building stock. The approach is population based, in order to obtain information on the evolution of the stock across time, and to help the manager in the decision making process on global maintenance strategies. For the decision making it is crutial to determine those covariates -like materials, morphology and characteristics of the facade, orientation or environmental conditions- that play a significative role in the progression of different failures. The proposed platform also incorporates an open source GIS plugin that includes survival and test moduli that allow the investigator to model the time until a lesion taking into account the variables collected during the inspection process. The aim of this paper is double: a) to shortly introduce the predictive system, as well as the inspection and the analysis methodologies and b) to introduce and illustrate the modeling strategy for the deteriorating process of an urban front. The illustration will be focused on the city of L’Hospitalet de Llobregat (Barcelona, Spain) in which more than 14,000 facades have been inspected and analyzed.

  2. Retro-regression--another important multivariate regression improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randić, M

    2001-01-01

    We review the serious problem associated with instabilities of the coefficients of regression equations, referred to as the MRA (multivariate regression analysis) "nightmare of the first kind". This is manifested when in a stepwise regression a descriptor is included or excluded from a regression. The consequence is an unpredictable change of the coefficients of the descriptors that remain in the regression equation. We follow with consideration of an even more serious problem, referred to as the MRA "nightmare of the second kind", arising when optimal descriptors are selected from a large pool of descriptors. This process typically causes at different steps of the stepwise regression a replacement of several previously used descriptors by new ones. We describe a procedure that resolves these difficulties. The approach is illustrated on boiling points of nonanes which are considered (1) by using an ordered connectivity basis; (2) by using an ordering resulting from application of greedy algorithm; and (3) by using an ordering derived from an exhaustive search for optimal descriptors. A novel variant of multiple regression analysis, called retro-regression (RR), is outlined showing how it resolves the ambiguities associated with both "nightmares" of the first and the second kind of MRA.

  3. The Health Extension Program and Its Association with Change in Utilization of Selected Maternal Health Services in Tigray Region, Ethiopia: A Segmented Linear Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Tesfay Gebregzabher; San Sebastian, Miguel; Edin, Kerstin; Goicolea, Isabel

    2015-01-01

    Background In 2003, the Ethiopian Ministry of Health established the Health Extension Program (HEP), with the goal of improving access to health care and health promotion activities in rural areas of the country. This paper aims to assess the association of the HEP with improved utilization of maternal health services in Northern Ethiopia using institution-based retrospective data. Methods Average quarterly total attendances for antenatal care (ANC), delivery care (DC) and post-natal care (PNC) at health posts and health care centres were studied from 2002 to 2012. Regression analysis was applied to two models to assess whether trends were statistically significant. One model was used to estimate the level and trend changes associated with the immediate period of intervention, while changes related to the post-intervention period were estimated by the other. Results The total number of consultations for ANC, DC and PNC increased constantly, particularly after the late-intervention period. Increases were higher for ANC and PNC at health post level and for DC at health centres. A positive statistically significant upward trend was found for DC and PNC in all facilities (p<0.01). The positive trend was also present in ANC at health centres (p = 0.04), but not at health posts. Conclusion Our findings revealed an increase in the use of antenatal, delivery and post-natal care after the introduction of the HEP. We are aware that other factors, that we could not control for, might be explaining that increase. The figures for DC and PNC are however low and more needs to be done in order to increase the access to the health care system as well as the demand for these services by the population. Strengthening of the health information system in the region needs also to be prioritized. PMID:26218074

  4. The Health Extension Program and Its Association with Change in Utilization of Selected Maternal Health Services in Tigray Region, Ethiopia: A Segmented Linear Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Tesfay Gebregzabher; San Sebastian, Miguel; Edin, Kerstin; Goicolea, Isabel

    2015-01-01

    In 2003, the Ethiopian Ministry of Health established the Health Extension Program (HEP), with the goal of improving access to health care and health promotion activities in rural areas of the country. This paper aims to assess the association of the HEP with improved utilization of maternal health services in Northern Ethiopia using institution-based retrospective data. Average quarterly total attendances for antenatal care (ANC), delivery care (DC) and post-natal care (PNC) at health posts and health care centres were studied from 2002 to 2012. Regression analysis was applied to two models to assess whether trends were statistically significant. One model was used to estimate the level and trend changes associated with the immediate period of intervention, while changes related to the post-intervention period were estimated by the other. The total number of consultations for ANC, DC and PNC increased constantly, particularly after the late-intervention period. Increases were higher for ANC and PNC at health post level and for DC at health centres. A positive statistically significant upward trend was found for DC and PNC in all facilities (pintroduction of the HEP. We are aware that other factors, that we could not control for, might be explaining that increase. The figures for DC and PNC are however low and more needs to be done in order to increase the access to the health care system as well as the demand for these services by the population. Strengthening of the health information system in the region needs also to be prioritized.

  5. Selective nature and inherent variability of interrill erosion across prolonged rainfall simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Y.; Kuhn, N. J.; Fister, W.

    2012-04-01

    Sediment of interrill erosion has been generally recognized to be selectively enriched with soil organic carbon (SOC) and fine fractions (clay/silt-sized particles or aggregates) in comparison to source area soil. Limited kinetic energy and lack of concentrated runoff are the dominant factors causing selective detachment and transportation. Although enrichment ratios of SOC (ERsoc) in eroded sediment were generally reported > 1, the values varied widely. Causal factors to variation, such as initial soil properties, rainfall properties and experimental conditions, have been extensively discussed. But less attention was directed to the potential influence of prolonged rainfall time onto the temporal pattern of ERsoc. Conservation of mass dictates that ERsoc must be balanced by a decline in the source material which should also lead to a reduced or even negative ERsoc in sediment over time. Besides, the stabilizing effects of structural crust on reducing erosional variation, and the unavoidable variations of erosional response induced by the inherent complexity of interrill erosion, have scarcely been integrated. Moreover, during a prolonged rainfall event surface roughness evolves and affects the movement of eroded aggregates and mineral particles. In this study, two silt loams from Möhlin, Switzerland, organically (OS) and conventionally farmed (CS), were exposed to simulated rainfall of 30 mm h-1 for up to 6 hours. Round donut-flumes with a confined eroding area (1845 cm2) and limited transporting distance (20 cm) were used. Sediments, runoff and subsurface flow were collected in intervals of 30 min. Loose aggregates left on the eroded soil surface, crusts and the soil underneath the crusts were collected after the experiment. All the samples were analyzed for total organic carbon (TOC) content, and texture. Laser scanning of soil surface was applied before and after the rainfall event. The whole experiment was repeated for 10 times. Results from this study showed

  6. The influence of selected socio-demographic variables on symptoms occurring during the menopause

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Makara-Studzińska

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: It is considered that the lifestyle conditioned by socio-demographic or socio-economic factors determines the health condition of people to the greatest extent. The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of selected socio-demographic factors on the kinds of symptoms occurring during menopause. Material and methods : The study group consisted of 210 women aged 45 to 65, not using hormone replacement therapy, staying at healthcare centers for rehabilitation treatment. The study was carried out in 2013-2014 in the Silesian, Podlaskie and Lesser Poland voivodeships. The set of tools consisted of the authors’ own survey questionnaire and the Menopause Rating Scale (MRS. Results : The most commonly occurring symptom in the group of studied women was a depressive mood, from the group of psychological symptoms, followed by physical and mental fatigue, and discomfort connected with muscle and joint pain. The greatest intensity of symptoms was observed in the group of women with the lowest level of education, reporting an average or bad material situation, and unemployed women. Conclusions : An alarmingly high number of reported psychological symptoms in the group of menopausal women was observed, and in particular among the group of low socio-economic status. Career seems to be a factor reducing the risk of occurrence of psychological symptoms. There is an urgent need for health promotion and prophylaxis in the group of menopausal women, and in many cases for implementation of specialist psychological assistance.

  7. Regression Analysis by Example. 5th Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Samprit; Hadi, Ali S.

    2012-01-01

    Regression analysis is a conceptually simple method for investigating relationships among variables. Carrying out a successful application of regression analysis, however, requires a balance of theoretical results, empirical rules, and subjective judgment. "Regression Analysis by Example, Fifth Edition" has been expanded and thoroughly…

  8. A Seemingly Unrelated Poisson Regression Model

    OpenAIRE

    King, Gary

    1989-01-01

    This article introduces a new estimator for the analysis of two contemporaneously correlated endogenous event count variables. This seemingly unrelated Poisson regression model (SUPREME) estimator combines the efficiencies created by single equation Poisson regression model estimators and insights from "seemingly unrelated" linear regression models.

  9. Regression analysis with categorized regression calibrated exposure: some interesting findings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hjartåker Anette

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Regression calibration as a method for handling measurement error is becoming increasingly well-known and used in epidemiologic research. However, the standard version of the method is not appropriate for exposure analyzed on a categorical (e.g. quintile scale, an approach commonly used in epidemiologic studies. A tempting solution could then be to use the predicted continuous exposure obtained through the regression calibration method and treat it as an approximation to the true exposure, that is, include the categorized calibrated exposure in the main regression analysis. Methods We use semi-analytical calculations and simulations to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach compared to the naive approach of not correcting for measurement error, in situations where analyses are performed on quintile scale and when incorporating the original scale into the categorical variables, respectively. We also present analyses of real data, containing measures of folate intake and depression, from the Norwegian Women and Cancer study (NOWAC. Results In cases where extra information is available through replicated measurements and not validation data, regression calibration does not maintain important qualities of the true exposure distribution, thus estimates of variance and percentiles can be severely biased. We show that the outlined approach maintains much, in some cases all, of the misclassification found in the observed exposure. For that reason, regression analysis with the corrected variable included on a categorical scale is still biased. In some cases the corrected estimates are analytically equal to those obtained by the naive approach. Regression calibration is however vastly superior to the naive method when applying the medians of each category in the analysis. Conclusion Regression calibration in its most well-known form is not appropriate for measurement error correction when the exposure is analyzed on a

  10. RAWS II: A MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS PROGRAM,

    Science.gov (United States)

    This memorandum gives instructions for the use and operation of a revised version of RAWS, a multiple regression analysis program. The program...of preprocessed data, the directed retention of variable, listing of the matrix of the normal equations and its inverse, and the bypassing of the regression analysis to provide the input variable statistics only. (Author)

  11. A Simulation Investigation of Principal Component Regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, David E.

    Regression analysis is one of the more common analytic tools used by researchers. However, multicollinearity between the predictor variables can cause problems in using the results of regression analyses. Problems associated with multicollinearity include entanglement of relative influences of variables due to reduced precision of estimation,…

  12. Survival analysis II: Cox regression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stel, Vianda S.; Dekker, Friedo W.; Tripepi, Giovanni; Zoccali, Carmine; Jager, Kitty J.

    2011-01-01

    In contrast to the Kaplan-Meier method, Cox proportional hazards regression can provide an effect estimate by quantifying the difference in survival between patient groups and can adjust for confounding effects of other variables. The purpose of this article is to explain the basic concepts of the

  13. Kernel regression with functional response

    OpenAIRE

    Ferraty, Frédéric; Laksaci, Ali; Tadj, Amel; Vieu, Philippe

    2011-01-01

    We consider kernel regression estimate when both the response variable and the explanatory one are functional. The rates of uniform almost complete convergence are stated as function of the small ball probability of the predictor and as function of the entropy of the set on which uniformity is obtained.

  14. Detecting temporal changes in acoustic scenes: The variable benefit of selective attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demany, Laurent; Bayle, Yann; Puginier, Emilie; Semal, Catherine

    2017-09-01

    Four experiments investigated change detection in acoustic scenes consisting of a sum of five amplitude-modulated pure tones. As the tones were about 0.7 octave apart and were amplitude-modulated with different frequencies (in the range 2-32 Hz), they were perceived as separate streams. Listeners had to detect a change in the frequency (experiments 1 and 2) or the shape (experiments 3 and 4) of the modulation of one of the five tones, in the presence of an informative cue orienting selective attention either before the scene (pre-cue) or after it (post-cue). The changes left intensity unchanged and were not detectable in the spectral (tonotopic) domain. Performance was much better with pre-cues than with post-cues. Thus, change deafness was manifest in the absence of an appropriate focusing of attention when the change occurred, even though the streams and the changes to be detected were acoustically very simple (in contrast to the conditions used in previous demonstrations of change deafness). In one case, the results were consistent with a model based on the assumption that change detection was possible if and only if attention was endogenously focused on a single tone. However, it was also found that changes resulting in a steepening of amplitude rises were to some extent able to draw attention exogenously. Change detection was not markedly facilitated when the change produced a discontinuity in the modulation domain, contrary to what could be expected from the perspective of predictive coding. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. A volatolomic approach for studying plant variability: the case of selected Helichrysum species (Asteraceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, Claudia; Lazzaro, Lorenzo; Calamassi, Roberto; Calamai, Luca; Romoli, Riccardo; Fico, Gelsomina; Foggi, Bruno; Mariotti Lippi, Marta

    2016-10-01

    The species of Helichrysum sect. Stoechadina (Asteraceae) are well-known for their secondary metabolite content and the characteristic aromatic bouquets. In the wild, populations exhibit a wide phenotypic plasticity which makes critical the circumscription of species and infraspecific ranks. Previous investigations on Helichrysum italicum complex focused on a possible phytochemical typification based on hydrodistilled essential oils. Aims of this paper are three-fold: (i) characterizing the volatile profiles of different populations, testing (ii) how these profiles vary across populations and (iii) how the phytochemical diversity may contribute in solving taxonomic problems. Nine selected Helichrysum populations, included within the H. italicum complex, Helichrysum litoreum and Helichrysum stoechas, were investigated. H. stoechas was chosen as outgroup for validating the method. After collection in the wild, plants were cultivated in standard growing conditions for over one year. Annual leafy shoots were screened in the post-blooming period for the emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) by means of headspace solid phase microextraction coupled with gas-chromatography and mass spectrometry (HS-SPME-GC/MS). The VOC composition analysis revealed the production of overall 386 different compounds, with terpenes being the most represented compound class. Statistical data processing allowed the identification of the indicator compounds that differentiate the single populations, revealing the influence of the geographical provenance area in determining the volatile profiles. These results suggested the potential use of VOCs as valuable diacritical characters in discriminating the Helichrysum populations. In addition, the cross-validation analysis hinted the potentiality of this volatolomic study in the discrimination of the Helichrysum species and subspecies, highlighting a general congruence with the current taxonomic treatment of the genus. The consistency

  16. Habitat Heterogeneity Variably Influences Habitat Selection by Wild Herbivores in a Semi-Arid Tropical Savanna Ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor K Muposhi

    Full Text Available An understanding of the habitat selection patterns by wild herbivores is critical for adaptive management, particularly towards ecosystem management and wildlife conservation in semi arid savanna ecosystems. We tested the following predictions: (i surface water availability, habitat quality and human presence have a strong influence on the spatial distribution of wild herbivores in the dry season, (ii habitat suitability for large herbivores would be higher compared to medium-sized herbivores in the dry season, and (iii spatial extent of suitable habitats for wild herbivores will be different between years, i.e., 2006 and 2010, in Matetsi Safari Area, Zimbabwe. MaxEnt modeling was done to determine the habitat suitability of large herbivores and medium-sized herbivores. MaxEnt modeling of habitat suitability for large herbivores using the environmental variables was successful for the selected species in 2006 and 2010, except for elephant (Loxodonta africana for the year 2010. Overall, large herbivores probability of occurrence was mostly influenced by distance from rivers. Distance from roads influenced much of the variability in the probability of occurrence of medium-sized herbivores. The overall predicted area for large and medium-sized herbivores was not different. Large herbivores may not necessarily utilize larger habitat patches over medium-sized herbivores due to the habitat homogenizing effect of water provisioning. Effect of surface water availability, proximity to riverine ecosystems and roads on habitat suitability of large and medium-sized herbivores in the dry season was highly variable thus could change from one year to another. We recommend adaptive management initiatives aimed at ensuring dynamic water supply in protected areas through temporal closure and or opening of water points to promote heterogeneity of wildlife habitats.

  17. Reduced Rank Regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren

    2008-01-01

    The reduced rank regression model is a multivariate regression model with a coefficient matrix with reduced rank. The reduced rank regression algorithm is an estimation procedure, which estimates the reduced rank regression model. It is related to canonical correlations and involves calculating...

  18. A flexible fuzzy regression algorithm for forecasting oil consumption estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azadeh, A.; Khakestani, M.; Saberi, M.

    2009-01-01

    Oil consumption plays a vital role in socio-economic development of most countries. This study presents a flexible fuzzy regression algorithm for forecasting oil consumption based on standard economic indicators. The standard indicators are annual population, cost of crude oil import, gross domestic production (GDP) and annual oil production in the last period. The proposed algorithm uses analysis of variance (ANOVA) to select either fuzzy regression or conventional regression for future demand estimation. The significance of the proposed algorithm is three fold. First, it is flexible and identifies the best model based on the results of ANOVA and minimum absolute percentage error (MAPE), whereas previous studies consider the best fitted fuzzy regression model based on MAPE or other relative error results. Second, the proposed model may identify conventional regression as the best model for future oil consumption forecasting because of its dynamic structure, whereas previous studies assume that fuzzy regression always provide the best solutions and estimation. Third, it utilizes the most standard independent variables for the regression models. To show the applicability and superiority of the proposed flexible fuzzy regression algorithm the data for oil consumption in Canada, United States, Japan and Australia from 1990 to 2005 are used. The results show that the flexible algorithm provides accurate solution for oil consumption estimation problem. The algorithm may be used by policy makers to accurately foresee the behavior of oil consumption in various regions.

  19. Determinants of Non-Performing Assets in India - Panel Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saikat Ghosh Roy

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that level of banks‟ credit plays an important role in economic developments. Indian banking sector has played a seminal role in supporting economic growth in India. Recently, Indian banks are experiencing consistent increase in non-performing assets (NPA. In this perspective, this paper investigates the trends in NPA in Indian banks and its determinants. The panel regressions, fixed effect allows evaluating the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on the NPA. The Panel regression result indicates that the GDP growth, change in exchange rate and global volatility have major effects on the NPA level of Indian banking sector.

  20. Implementation of a multi-variable regression analysis in the assessment of the generation rate and composition of hospital solid waste for the design of a sustainable management system in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Khatib, Issam A; Abu Fkhidah, Ismail; Khatib, Jumana I; Kontogianni, Stamatia

    2016-03-01

    Forecasting of hospital solid waste generation is a critical challenge for future planning. The composition and generation rate of hospital solid waste in hospital units was the field where the proposed methodology of the present article was applied in order to validate the results and secure the outcomes of the management plan in national hospitals. A set of three multiple-variable regression models has been derived for estimating the daily total hospital waste, general hospital waste, and total hazardous waste as a function of number of inpatients, number of total patients, and number of beds. The application of several key indicators and validation procedures indicates the high significance and reliability of the developed models in predicting the hospital solid waste of any hospital. Methodology data were drawn from existent scientific literature. Also, useful raw data were retrieved from international organisations and the investigated hospitals' personnel. The primal generation outcomes are compared with other local hospitals and also with hospitals from other countries. The main outcome, which is the developed model results, are presented and analysed thoroughly. The goal is this model to act as leverage in the discussions among governmental authorities on the implementation of a national plan for safe hospital waste management in Palestine. © The Author(s) 2016.

  1. An adaptive technique for multiscale approximate entropy (MAEbin) threshold (r) selection: application to heart rate variability (HRV) and systolic blood pressure variability (SBPV) under postural stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Amritpal; Saini, Barjinder Singh; Singh, Dilbag

    2016-06-01

    Multiscale approximate entropy (MAE) is used to quantify the complexity of a time series as a function of time scale τ. Approximate entropy (ApEn) tolerance threshold selection 'r' is based on either: (1) arbitrary selection in the recommended range (0.1-0.25) times standard deviation of time series (2) or finding maximum ApEn (ApEnmax) i.e., the point where self-matches start to prevail over other matches and choosing the corresponding 'r' (rmax) as threshold (3) or computing rchon by empirically finding the relation between rmax, SD1/SD2 ratio and N using curve fitting, where, SD1 and SD2 are short-term and long-term variability of a time series respectively. None of these methods is gold standard for selection of 'r'. In our previous study [1], an adaptive procedure for selection of 'r' is proposed for approximate entropy (ApEn). In this paper, this is extended to multiple time scales using MAEbin and multiscale cross-MAEbin (XMAEbin). We applied this to simulations i.e. 50 realizations (n = 50) of random number series, fractional Brownian motion (fBm) and MIX (P) [1] series of data length of N = 300 and short term recordings of HRV and SBPV performed under postural stress from supine to standing. MAEbin and XMAEbin analysis was performed on laboratory recorded data of 50 healthy young subjects experiencing postural stress from supine to upright. The study showed that (i) ApEnbin of HRV is more than SBPV in supine position but is lower than SBPV in upright position (ii) ApEnbin of HRV decreases from supine i.e. 1.7324 ± 0.112 (mean ± SD) to upright 1.4916 ± 0.108 due to vagal inhibition (iii) ApEnbin of SBPV increases from supine i.e. 1.5535 ± 0.098 to upright i.e. 1.6241 ± 0.101 due sympathetic activation (iv) individual and cross complexities of RRi and systolic blood pressure (SBP) series depend on time scale under consideration (v) XMAEbin calculated using ApEnmax is correlated with cross-MAE calculated using ApEn (0.1-0.26) in steps of 0

  2. Principal component regression analysis with SPSS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, R X; Kuang, J; Gong, Q; Hou, X L

    2003-06-01

    The paper introduces all indices of multicollinearity diagnoses, the basic principle of principal component regression and determination of 'best' equation method. The paper uses an example to describe how to do principal component regression analysis with SPSS 10.0: including all calculating processes of the principal component regression and all operations of linear regression, factor analysis, descriptives, compute variable and bivariate correlations procedures in SPSS 10.0. The principal component regression analysis can be used to overcome disturbance of the multicollinearity. The simplified, speeded up and accurate statistical effect is reached through the principal component regression analysis with SPSS.

  3. The influence of some selected variables from accounting system on profit or loss of agricultural companies in the Slovak republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Ferenczi Vaňová

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available 1024x768 The article presents the influence assessment of significance of some selected variables from the entrepreneurs' accounting system on the achieved profit or loss of the agricultural companies in the Slovak Republic. Accounting information serves as an active tool for internal users for operational as well as strategic company management, and for external users the information is determined as legally binding output information which is a subject to disclosure. Individual financial statements of assessed agricultural companies are considered to be the relevant source of information. Agricultural companies are represented by commercial companies and agricultural cooperatives. Profit or loss after income tax presents the final complex effect of economic company's performance. The existence and development of companies is conditioned by assets which amount and structure depend on focus and the range of subject activity but as well as on specific factors set by the production process in the agricultural primary production. The increase in liabilities is notable by the influence of unsufficient amount of own company funding sources, mainly the increase in trade payables. The continuance of company reproduction process is secured by a bank loan drawdown. The income situation of companies of agricultural primary production is favourably influenced by the subsidies of non-investment character. During the observed period of years 2004 - 2014 the examined variables were assessed by means of statistical methods. The obtained results of rate determination of statistical correlation between selected variables by means of classical canonical analysis and non-parametric correlation analysis secured that in the assessed group of companies all analysed variables influenced statistically significantly profit or loss after income tax, mainly the total value of assets and non-investment subsidies, except for years 2010, 2012 a 2013, when the statistically

  4. Genetic variability and natural selection at the ligand domain of the Duffy binding protein in brazilian Plasmodium vivax populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gil Luiz HS

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Plasmodium vivax malaria is a major public health challenge in Latin America, Asia and Oceania, with 130-435 million clinical cases per year worldwide. Invasion of host blood cells by P. vivax mainly depends on a type I membrane protein called Duffy binding protein (PvDBP. The erythrocyte-binding motif of PvDBP is a 170 amino-acid stretch located in its cysteine-rich region II (PvDBPII, which is the most variable segment of the protein. Methods To test whether diversifying natural selection has shaped the nucleotide diversity of PvDBPII in Brazilian populations, this region was sequenced in 122 isolates from six different geographic areas. A Bayesian method was applied to test for the action of natural selection under a population genetic model that incorporates recombination. The analysis was integrated with a structural model of PvDBPII, and T- and B-cell epitopes were localized on the 3-D structure. Results The results suggest that: (i recombination plays an important role in determining the haplotype structure of PvDBPII, and (ii PvDBPII appears to contain neutrally evolving codons as well as codons evolving under natural selection. Diversifying selection preferentially acts on sites identified as epitopes, particularly on amino acid residues 417, 419, and 424, which show strong linkage disequilibrium. Conclusions This study shows that some polymorphisms of PvDBPII are present near the erythrocyte-binding domain and might serve to elude antibodies that inhibit cell invasion. Therefore, these polymorphisms should be taken into account when designing vaccines aimed at eliciting antibodies to inhibit erythrocyte invasion.

  5. Synthesis, Characterization, and Variable-Temperature NMR Studies of Silver(I) Complexes for Selective Nitrene Transfer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Minxue; Corbin, Joshua R; Dolan, Nicholas S; Fry, Charles G; Vinokur, Anastasiya I; Guzei, Ilia A; Schomaker, Jennifer M

    2017-06-05

    An array of silver complexes supported by nitrogen-donor ligands catalyze the transformation of C═C and C-H bonds to valuable C-N bonds via nitrene transfer. The ability to achieve high chemoselectivity and site selectivity in an amination event requires an understanding of both the solid- and solution-state behavior of these catalysts. X-ray structural characterizations were helpful in determining ligand features that promote the formation of monomeric versus dimeric complexes. Variable-temperature 1 H and DOSY NMR experiments were especially useful for understanding how the ligand identity influences the nuclearity, coordination number, and fluxional behavior of silver(I) complexes in solution. These insights are valuable for developing improved ligand designs.

  6. Genetic and Psychosocial Predictors of Aggression: Variable Selection and Model Building With Component-Wise Gradient Boosting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Suchting

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Rationale: Given datasets with a large or diverse set of predictors of aggression, machine learning (ML provides efficient tools for identifying the most salient variables and building a parsimonious statistical model. ML techniques permit efficient exploration of data, have not been widely used in aggression research, and may have utility for those seeking prediction of aggressive behavior.Objectives: The present study examined predictors of aggression and constructed an optimized model using ML techniques. Predictors were derived from a dataset that included demographic, psychometric and genetic predictors, specifically FK506 binding protein 5 (FKBP5 polymorphisms, which have been shown to alter response to threatening stimuli, but have not been tested as predictors of aggressive behavior in adults.Methods: The data analysis approach utilized component-wise gradient boosting and model reduction via backward elimination to: (a select variables from an initial set of 20 to build a model of trait aggression; and then (b reduce that model to maximize parsimony and generalizability.Results: From a dataset of N = 47 participants, component-wise gradient boosting selected 8 of 20 possible predictors to model Buss-Perry Aggression Questionnaire (BPAQ total score, with R2 = 0.66. This model was simplified using backward elimination, retaining six predictors: smoking status, psychopathy (interpersonal manipulation and callous affect, childhood trauma (physical abuse and neglect, and the FKBP5_13 gene (rs1360780. The six-factor model approximated the initial eight-factor model at 99.4% of R2.Conclusions: Using an inductive data science approach, the gradient boosting model identified predictors consistent with previous experimental work in aggression; specifically psychopathy and trauma exposure. Additionally, allelic variants in FKBP5 were identified for the first time, but the relatively small sample size limits generality of results and calls for

  7. Genetic and Psychosocial Predictors of Aggression: Variable Selection and Model Building With Component-Wise Gradient Boosting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suchting, Robert; Gowin, Joshua L; Green, Charles E; Walss-Bass, Consuelo; Lane, Scott D

    2018-01-01

    Rationale : Given datasets with a large or diverse set of predictors of aggression, machine learning (ML) provides efficient tools for identifying the most salient variables and building a parsimonious statistical model. ML techniques permit efficient exploration of data, have not been widely used in aggression research, and may have utility for those seeking prediction of aggressive behavior. Objectives : The present study examined predictors of aggression and constructed an optimized model using ML techniques. Predictors were derived from a dataset that included demographic, psychometric and genetic predictors, specifically FK506 binding protein 5 (FKBP5) polymorphisms, which have been shown to alter response to threatening stimuli, but have not been tested as predictors of aggressive behavior in adults. Methods : The data analysis approach utilized component-wise gradient boosting and model reduction via backward elimination to: (a) select variables from an initial set of 20 to build a model of trait aggression; and then (b) reduce that model to maximize parsimony and generalizability. Results : From a dataset of N = 47 participants, component-wise gradient boosting selected 8 of 20 possible predictors to model Buss-Perry Aggression Questionnaire (BPAQ) total score, with R 2 = 0.66. This model was simplified using backward elimination, retaining six predictors: smoking status, psychopathy (interpersonal manipulation and callous affect), childhood trauma (physical abuse and neglect), and the FKBP5_13 gene (rs1360780). The six-factor model approximated the initial eight-factor model at 99.4% of R 2 . Conclusions : Using an inductive data science approach, the gradient boosting model identified predictors consistent with previous experimental work in aggression; specifically psychopathy and trauma exposure. Additionally, allelic variants in FKBP5 were identified for the first time, but the relatively small sample size limits generality of results and calls for

  8. JT-60 configuration parameters for feedback control determined by regression analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsukawa, Makoto; Hosogane, Nobuyuki; Ninomiya, Hiromasa (Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Naka, Ibaraki (Japan). Naka Fusion Research Establishment)

    1991-12-01

    The stepwise regression procedure was applied to obtain measurement formulas for equilibrium parameters used in the feedback control of JT-60. This procedure automatically selects variables necessary for the measurements, and selects a set of variables which are not likely to be picked up by physical considerations. Regression equations with stable and small multicollinearity were obtained and it was experimentally confirmed that the measurement formulas obtained through this procedure were accurate enough to be applicable to the feedback control of plasma configurations in JT-60. (author).

  9. JT-60 configuration parameters for feedback control determined by regression analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsukawa, Makoto; Hosogane, Nobuyuki; Ninomiya, Hiromasa

    1991-12-01

    The stepwise regression procedure was applied to obtain measurement formulas for equilibrium parameters used in the feedback control of JT-60. This procedure automatically selects variables necessary for the measurements, and selects a set of variables which are not likely to be picked up by physical considerations. Regression equations with stable and small multicollinearity were obtained and it was experimentally confirmed that the measurement formulas obtained through this procedure were accurate enough to be applicable to the feedback control of plasma configurations in JT-60. (author)

  10. [From clinical judgment to linear regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palacios-Cruz, Lino; Pérez, Marcela; Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo; Talavera, Juan O

    2013-01-01

    When we think about mathematical models, such as linear regression model, we think that these terms are only used by those engaged in research, a notion that is far from the truth. Legendre described the first mathematical model in 1805, and Galton introduced the formal term in 1886. Linear regression is one of the most commonly used regression models in clinical practice. It is useful to predict or show the relationship between two or more variables as long as the dependent variable is quantitative and has normal distribution. Stated in another way, the regression is used to predict a measure based on the knowledge of at least one other variable. Linear regression has as it's first objective to determine the slope or inclination of the regression line: Y = a + bx, where "a" is the intercept or regression constant and it is equivalent to "Y" value when "X" equals 0 and "b" (also called slope) indicates the increase or decrease that occurs when the variable "x" increases or decreases in one unit. In the regression line, "b" is called regression coefficient. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) indicates the importance of independent variables in the outcome.

  11. THE HOST GALAXY PROPERTIES OF VARIABILITY SELECTED AGN IN THE PAN-STARRS1 MEDIUM DEEP SURVEY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinis, S.; Gezari, S.; Kumar, S. [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Burgett, W. S.; Flewelling, H.; Huber, M. E.; Kaiser, N.; Wainscoat, R. J.; Waters, C. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States)

    2016-07-20

    We study the properties of 975 active galactic nuclei (AGNs) selected by variability in the Pan-STARRS1 Medium deep Survey. Using complementary multi-wavelength data from the ultraviolet to the far-infrared, we use spectral energy distribution fitting to determine the AGN and host properties at z < 1 and compare to a well-matched control sample. We confirm the trend previously observed: that the variability amplitude decreases with AGN luminosity, but we also observe that the slope of this relation steepens with wavelength, resulting in a “redder when brighter” trend at low luminosities. Our results show that AGNs are hosted by more massive hosts than control sample galaxies, while the rest frame dust-corrected NUV r color distribution of AGN hosts is similar to control galaxies. We find a positive correlation between the AGN luminosity and star formation rate (SFR), independent of redshift. AGN hosts populate the entire range of SFRs within and outside of the Main Sequence of star-forming galaxies. Comparing the distribution of AGN hosts and control galaxies, we show that AGN hosts are less likely to be hosted by quiescent galaxies and more likely to be hosted by Main Sequence or starburst galaxies.

  12. Relation of desert pupfish abundance to selected environmental variables in natural and manmade habitats in the Salton Sea basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, B.A.; Saiki, M.K.

    2005-01-01

    We assessed the relation between abundance of desert pupfish, Cyprinodon macularius, and selected biological and physicochemical variables in natural and manmade habitats within the Salton Sea Basin. Field sampling in a natural tributary, Salt Creek, and three agricultural drains captured eight species including pupfish (1.1% of the total catch), the only native species encountered. According to Bray-Curtis resemblance functions, fish species assemblages differed mostly between Salt Creek and the drains (i.e., the three drains had relatively similar species assemblages). Pupfish numbers and environmental variables varied among sites and sample periods. Canonical correlation showed that pupfish abundance was positively correlated with abundance of western mosquitofish, Gambusia affinis, and negatively correlated with abundance of porthole livebearers, Poeciliopsis gracilis, tilapias (Sarotherodon mossambica and Tilapia zillii), longjaw mudsuckers, Gillichthys mirabilis, and mollies (Poecilia latipinnaandPoecilia mexicana). In addition, pupfish abundance was positively correlated with cover, pH, and salinity, and negatively correlated with sediment factor (a measure of sediment grain size) and dissolved oxygen. Pupfish abundance was generally highest in habitats where water quality extremes (especially high pH and salinity, and low dissolved oxygen) seemingly limited the occurrence of nonnative fishes. This study also documented evidence of predation by mudsuckers on pupfish. These findings support the contention of many resource managers that pupfish populations are adversely influenced by ecological interactions with nonnative fishes. ?? Springer 2005.

  13. Managing anthelmintic resistance-Variability in the dose of drug reaching the target worms influences selection for resistance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leathwick, Dave M; Luo, Dongwen

    2017-08-30

    The concentration profile of anthelmintic reaching the target worms in the host can vary between animals even when administered doses are tailored to individual liveweight at the manufacturer's recommended rate. Factors contributing to variation in drug concentration include weather, breed of animal, formulation and the route by which drugs are administered. The implications of this variability for the development of anthelmintic resistance was investigated using Monte-Carlo simulation. A model framework was established where 100 animals each received a single drug treatment. The 'dose' of drug allocated to each animal (i.e. the concentration-time profile of drug reaching the target worms) was sampled at random from a distribution of doses with mean m and standard deviation s. For each animal the dose of drug was used in conjunction with pre-determined dose-response relationships, representing single and poly-genetic inheritance, to calculate efficacy against susceptible and resistant genotypes. These data were then used to calculate the overall change in resistance gene frequency for the worm population as a result of the treatment. Values for m and s were varied to reflect differences in both mean dose and the variability in dose, and for each combination of these 100,000 simulations were run. The resistance gene frequency in the population after treatment increased as m decreased and as s increased. This occurred for both single and poly-gene models and for different levels of dominance (survival under treatment) of the heterozygote genotype(s). The results indicate that factors which result in lower and/or more variable concentrations of active reaching the target worms are more likely to select for resistance. The potential of different routes of anthelmintic administration to play a role in the development of anthelmintic resistance is discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. A selective review of the first 20 years of instrumental variables models in health-services research and medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawley, John

    2015-01-01

    The method of instrumental variables (IV) is useful for estimating causal effects. Intuitively, it exploits exogenous variation in the treatment, sometimes called natural experiments or instruments. This study reviews the literature in health-services research and medical research that applies the method of instrumental variables, documents trends in its use, and offers examples of various types of instruments. A literature search of the PubMed and EconLit research databases for English-language journal articles published after 1990 yielded a total of 522 original research articles. Citations counts for each article were derived from the Web of Science. A selective review was conducted, with articles prioritized based on number of citations, validity and power of the instrument, and type of instrument. The average annual number of papers in health services research and medical research that apply the method of instrumental variables rose from 1.2 in 1991-1995 to 41.8 in 2006-2010. Commonly-used instruments (natural experiments) in health and medicine are relative distance to a medical care provider offering the treatment and the medical care provider's historic tendency to administer the treatment. Less common but still noteworthy instruments include randomization of treatment for reasons other than research, randomized encouragement to undertake the treatment, day of week of admission as an instrument for waiting time for surgery, and genes as an instrument for whether the respondent has a heritable condition. The use of the method of IV has increased dramatically in the past 20 years, and a wide range of instruments have been used. Applications of the method of IV have in several cases upended conventional wisdom that was based on correlations and led to important insights about health and healthcare. Future research should pursue new applications of existing instruments and search for new instruments that are powerful and valid.

  15. Canonical variate regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Chongliang; Liu, Jin; Dey, Dipak K; Chen, Kun

    2016-07-01

    In many fields, multi-view datasets, measuring multiple distinct but interrelated sets of characteristics on the same set of subjects, together with data on certain outcomes or phenotypes, are routinely collected. The objective in such a problem is often two-fold: both to explore the association structures of multiple sets of measurements and to develop a parsimonious model for predicting the future outcomes. We study a unified canonical variate regression framework to tackle the two problems simultaneously. The proposed criterion integrates multiple canonical correlation analysis with predictive modeling, balancing between the association strength of the canonical variates and their joint predictive power on the outcomes. Moreover, the proposed criterion seeks multiple sets of canonical variates simultaneously to enable the examination of their joint effects on the outcomes, and is able to handle multivariate and non-Gaussian outcomes. An efficient algorithm based on variable splitting and Lagrangian multipliers is proposed. Simulation studies show the superior performance of the proposed approach. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in an [Formula: see text] intercross mice study and an alcohol dependence study. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Risk estimates for hip fracture from clinical and densitometric variables and impact of database selection in Lebanese subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badra, Mohammad; Mehio-Sibai, Abla; Zeki Al-Hazzouri, Adina; Abou Naja, Hala; Baliki, Ghassan; Salamoun, Mariana; Afeiche, Nadim; Baddoura, Omar; Bulos, Suhayl; Haidar, Rachid; Lakkis, Suhayl; Musharrafieh, Ramzi; Nsouli, Afif; Taha, Assaad; Tayim, Ahmad; El-Hajj Fuleihan, Ghada

    2009-01-01

    Bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture incidence vary greatly worldwide. The data, if any, on clinical and densitometric characteristics of patients with hip fractures from the Middle East are scarce. The objective of the study was to define risk estimates from clinical and densitometric variables and the impact of database selection on such estimates. Clinical and densitometric information were obtained in 60 hip fracture patients and 90 controls. Hip fracture subjects were 74 yr (9.4) old, were significantly taller, lighter, and more likely to be taking anxiolytics and sleeping pills than controls. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database selection resulted in a higher sensitivity and almost equal specificity in identifying patients with a hip fracture compared with the Lebanese database. The odds ratio (OR) and its confidence interval (CI) for hip fracture per standard deviation (SD) decrease in total hip BMD was 2.1 (1.45-3.05) with the NHANES database, and 2.11 (1.36-2.37) when adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI). Risk estimates were higher in male compared with female subjects. In Lebanese subjects, BMD- and BMI-derived hip fracture risk estimates are comparable to western standards. The study validates the universal use of the NHANES database, and the applicability of BMD- and BMI-derived risk fracture estimates in the World Health Organization (WHO) global fracture risk model, to the Lebanese.

  17. NUMBER OF SUCCESSIVE CYCLES NECESSARY TO ACHIEVE STABILITY OF SELECTED GROUND REACTION FORCE VARIABLES DURING CONTINUOUS JUMPING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasmes M.W. Brownjohn

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Because of inherent variability in all human cyclical movements, such as walking, running and jumping, data collected across a single cycle might be atypical and potentially unable to represent an individual's generalized performance. The study described here was designed to determine the number of successive cycles due to continuous, repetitive countermovement jumping which a test subject should perform in a single experimental session to achieve stability of the mean of the corresponding continuously measured ground reaction force (GRF variables. Seven vertical GRF variables (period of jumping cycle, duration of contact phase, peak force amplitude and its timing, average rate of force development, average rate of force relaxation and impulse were extracted on the cycle-by-cycle basis from vertical jumping force time histories generated by twelve participants who were jumping in response to regular electronic metronome beats in the range 2-2.8 Hz. Stability of the selected GRF variables across successive jumping cycles was examined for three jumping rates (2, 2.4 and 2.8 Hz using two statistical methods: intra-class correlation (ICC analysis and segmental averaging technique (SAT. Results of the ICC analysis indicated that an average of four successive cycles (mean 4.5 ± 2.7 for 2 Hz; 3.9 ± 2.6 for 2.4 Hz; 3.3 ± 2.7 for 2.8 Hz were necessary to achieve maximum ICC values. Except for jumping period, maximum ICC values took values from 0.592 to 0.991 and all were significantly (p < 0.05 different from zero. Results of the SAT revealed that an average of ten successive cycles (mean 10.5 ± 3.5 for 2 Hz; 9.2 ± 3.8 for 2.4 Hz; 9.0 ± 3.9 for 2.8 Hz were necessary to achieve stability of the selected parameters using criteria previously reported in the literature. Using 10 reference trials, the SAT required standard deviation criterion values of 0.49, 0.41 and 0.55 for 2 Hz, 2.4 Hz and 2.8 Hz jumping rates, respectively, in order to approximate

  18. Yet another look at MIDAS regression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractA MIDAS regression involves a dependent variable observed at a low frequency and independent variables observed at a higher frequency. This paper relates a true high frequency data generating process, where also the dependent variable is observed (hypothetically) at the high frequency,

  19. THE REGRESSION MODEL OF IRAN LIBRARIES ORGANIZATIONAL CLIMATE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahani, Mohammad Ali; Yaminfirooz, Mousa; Siamian, Hasan

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to drawing a regression model of organizational climate of central libraries of Iran's universities. This study is an applied research. The statistical population of this study consisted of 96 employees of the central libraries of Iran's public universities selected among the 117 universities affiliated to the Ministry of Health by Stratified Sampling method (510 people). Climate Qual localized questionnaire was used as research tools. For predicting the organizational climate pattern of the libraries is used from the multivariate linear regression and track diagram. of the 9 variables affecting organizational climate, 5 variables of innovation, teamwork, customer service, psychological safety and deep diversity play a major role in prediction of the organizational climate of Iran's libraries. The results also indicate that each of these variables with different coefficient have the power to predict organizational climate but the climate score of psychological safety (0.94) plays a very crucial role in predicting the organizational climate. Track diagram showed that five variables of teamwork, customer service, psychological safety, deep diversity and innovation directly effects on the organizational climate variable that contribution of the team work from this influence is more than any other variables. Of the indicator of the organizational climate of climateQual, the contribution of the team work from this influence is more than any other variables that reinforcement of teamwork in academic libraries can be more effective in improving the organizational climate of this type libraries.

  20. Selective dopamine D3 receptor antagonism by SB-277011A attenuates cocaine reinforcement as assessed by progressive-ratio and variable-cost–variable-payoff fixed-ratio cocaine self-administration in rats

    OpenAIRE

    Xi, Zheng-Xiong; Gilbert, Jeremy G.; Pak, Arlene C.; Ashby, Charles R.; Heidbreder, Christian A.; Gardner, Eliot L.

    2005-01-01

    In rats, acute administration of SB-277011A, a highly selective dopamine (DA) D3 receptor antagonist, blocks cocaine-enhanced brain stimulation reward, cocaine-seeking behaviour and reinstatement of cocaine-seeking behaviour. Here, we investigated whether SB-277011A attenuates cocaine reinforcement as assessed by cocaine self-administration under variable-cost–variable-payoff fixed-ratio (FR) and progressive-ratio (PR) reinforcement schedules. Acute i.p. administration of SB-277011A (3–24 mg/...

  1. Logistic regression for dichotomized counts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preisser, John S; Das, Kalyan; Benecha, Habtamu; Stamm, John W

    2016-12-01

    Sometimes there is interest in a dichotomized outcome indicating whether a count variable is positive or zero. Under this scenario, the application of ordinary logistic regression may result in efficiency loss, which is quantifiable under an assumed model for the counts. In such situations, a shared-parameter hurdle model is investigated for more efficient estimation of regression parameters relating to overall effects of covariates on the dichotomous outcome, while handling count data with many zeroes. One model part provides a logistic regression containing marginal log odds ratio effects of primary interest, while an ancillary model part describes the mean count of a Poisson or negative binomial process in terms of nuisance regression parameters. Asymptotic efficiency of the logistic model parameter estimators of the two-part models is evaluated with respect to ordinary logistic regression. Simulations are used to assess the properties of the models with respect to power and Type I error, the latter investigated under both misspecified and correctly specified models. The methods are applied to data from a randomized clinical trial of three toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries in a large population of Scottish schoolchildren. © The Author(s) 2014.

  2. Introduction to regression graphics

    CERN Document Server

    Cook, R Dennis

    2009-01-01

    Covers the use of dynamic and interactive computer graphics in linear regression analysis, focusing on analytical graphics. Features new techniques like plot rotation. The authors have composed their own regression code, using Xlisp-Stat language called R-code, which is a nearly complete system for linear regression analysis and can be utilized as the main computer program in a linear regression course. The accompanying disks, for both Macintosh and Windows computers, contain the R-code and Xlisp-Stat. An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is ava

  3. Alternative Methods of Regression

    CERN Document Server

    Birkes, David

    2011-01-01

    Of related interest. Nonlinear Regression Analysis and its Applications Douglas M. Bates and Donald G. Watts ".an extraordinary presentation of concepts and methods concerning the use and analysis of nonlinear regression models.highly recommend[ed].for anyone needing to use and/or understand issues concerning the analysis of nonlinear regression models." --Technometrics This book provides a balance between theory and practice supported by extensive displays of instructive geometrical constructs. Numerous in-depth case studies illustrate the use of nonlinear regression analysis--with all data s

  4. A rotor optimization using regression analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giansante, N.

    1984-01-01

    The design and development of helicopter rotors is subject to the many design variables and their interactions that effect rotor operation. Until recently, selection of rotor design variables to achieve specified rotor operational qualities has been a costly, time consuming, repetitive task. For the past several years, Kaman Aerospace Corporation has successfully applied multiple linear regression analysis, coupled with optimization and sensitivity procedures, in the analytical design of rotor systems. It is concluded that approximating equations can be developed rapidly for a multiplicity of objective and constraint functions and optimizations can be performed in a rapid and cost effective manner; the number and/or range of design variables can be increased by expanding the data base and developing approximating functions to reflect the expanded design space; the order of the approximating equations can be expanded easily to improve correlation between analyzer results and the approximating equations; gradients of the approximating equations can be calculated easily and these gradients are smooth functions reducing the risk of numerical problems in the optimization; the use of approximating functions allows the problem to be started easily and rapidly from various initial designs to enhance the probability of finding a global optimum; and the approximating equations are independent of the analysis or optimization codes used.

  5. Selecting the correct weighting factors for linear and quadratic calibration curves with least-squares regression algorithm in bioanalytical LC-MS/MS assays and impacts of using incorrect weighting factors on curve stability, data quality, and assay performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Huidong; Liu, Guowen; Wang, Jian; Aubry, Anne-Françoise; Arnold, Mark E

    2014-09-16

    A simple procedure for selecting the correct weighting factors for linear and quadratic calibration curves with least-squares regression algorithm in bioanalytical LC-MS/MS assays is reported. The correct weighting factor is determined by the relationship between the standard deviation of instrument responses (σ) and the concentrations (x). The weighting factor of 1, 1/x, or 1/x(2) should be selected if, over the entire concentration range, σ is a constant, σ(2) is proportional to x, or σ is proportional to x, respectively. For the first time, we demonstrated with detailed scientific reasoning, solid historical data, and convincing justification that 1/x(2) should always be used as the weighting factor for all bioanalytical LC-MS/MS assays. The impacts of using incorrect weighting factors on curve stability, data quality, and assay performance were thoroughly investigated. It was found that the most stable curve could be obtained when the correct weighting factor was used, whereas other curves using incorrect weighting factors were unstable. It was also found that there was a very insignificant impact on the concentrations reported with calibration curves using incorrect weighting factors as the concentrations were always reported with the passing curves which actually overlapped with or were very close to the curves using the correct weighting factor. However, the use of incorrect weighting factors did impact the assay performance significantly. Finally, the difference between the weighting factors of 1/x(2) and 1/y(2) was discussed. All of the findings can be generalized and applied into other quantitative analysis techniques using calibration curves with weighted least-squares regression algorithm.

  6. A regression approach for Zircaloy-2 in-reactor creep constitutive equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yung Liu, Y.; Bement, A.L.

    1977-01-01

    In this paper the methodology of multiple regressions as applied to Zircaloy-2 in-reactor creep data analysis and construction of constitutive equation are illustrated. While the resulting constitutive equation can be used in creep analysis of in-reactor Zircaloy structural components, the methodology itself is entirely general and can be applied to any creep data analysis. The promising aspects of multiple regression creep data analysis are briefly outlined as follows: (1) When there are more than one variable involved, there is no need to make the assumption that each variable affects the response independently. No separate normalizations are required either and the estimation of parameters is obtained by solving many simultaneous equations. The number of simultaneous equations is equal to the number of data sets. (2) Regression statistics such as R 2 - and F-statistics provide measures of the significance of regression creep equation in correlating the overall data. The relative weights of each variable on the response can also be obtained. (3) Special regression techniques such as step-wise, ridge, and robust regressions and residual plots, etc., p