Measure of uncertainty in regional grade variability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tutmez, B.; Kaymak, U.; Melin, P.; Castillo, O.; Gomez Ramirez, E.; Kacprzyk, J.; Pedrycz, W.

2007-01-01

Because the geological events are neither homogeneous nor isotropic, the geological investigations are characterized by particularly high uncertainties. This paper presents a hybrid methodology for measuring of uncertainty in regional grade variability. In order to evaluate the fuzziness in grade

Independent variable complexity for regional regression of the flow duration curve in ungauged basins

Science.gov (United States)

Fouad, Geoffrey; Skupin, André; Hope, Allen

2016-04-01

The flow duration curve (FDC) is one of the most widely used tools to quantify streamflow. Its percentile flows are often required for water resource applications, but these values must be predicted for ungauged basins with insufficient or no streamflow data. Regional regression is a commonly used approach for predicting percentile flows that involves identifying hydrologic regions and calibrating regression models to each region. The independent variables used to describe the physiographic and climatic setting of the basins are a critical component of regional regression, yet few studies have investigated their effect on resulting predictions. In this study, the complexity of the independent variables needed for regional regression is investigated. Different levels of variable complexity are applied for a regional regression consisting of 918 basins in the US. Both the hydrologic regions and regression models are determined according to the different sets of variables, and the accuracy of resulting predictions is assessed. The different sets of variables include (1) a simple set of three variables strongly tied to the FDC (mean annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and baseflow index), (2) a traditional set of variables describing the average physiographic and climatic conditions of the basins, and (3) a more complex set of variables extending the traditional variables to include statistics describing the distribution of physiographic data and temporal components of climatic data. The latter set of variables is not typically used in regional regression, and is evaluated for its potential to predict percentile flows. The simplest set of only three variables performed similarly to the other more complex sets of variables. Traditional variables used to describe climate, topography, and soil offered little more to the predictions, and the experimental set of variables describing the distribution of basin data in more detail did not improve predictions

Joint variable frame rate and length analysis for speech recognition under adverse conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tan, Zheng-Hua; Kraljevski, Ivan

2014-01-01

This paper presents a method that combines variable frame length and rate analysis for speech recognition in noisy environments, together with an investigation of the effect of different frame lengths on speech recognition performance. The method adopts frame selection using an a posteriori signal......-to-noise (SNR) ratio weighted energy distance and increases the length of the selected frames, according to the number of non-selected preceding frames. It assigns a higher frame rate and a normal frame length to a rapidly changing and high SNR region of a speech signal, and a lower frame rate and an increased...... frame length to a steady or low SNR region. The speech recognition results show that the proposed variable frame rate and length method outperforms fixed frame rate and length analysis, as well as standalone variable frame rate analysis in terms of noise-robustness....

Regional variability of farmer decision making and irrigation water use: insights from a data-scarce region of North India

Science.gov (United States)

O'Keeffe, Jimmy; Buytaert, Wouter; Brozović, Nick; Mijic, Ana

2014-05-01

Over the last fifty years, changes in agriculture brought about by the Green Revolution have transformed India from a famine-prone, drought-susceptible country into the worlds' third largest grain producer and one of the most intensively irrigated parts of the globe. Regionally, cheap energy, subsidised seeds and fertilisers, and in some areas Government purchase guarantees for grain promote the intensification of farming. While this allows farmers to survive, it also aggravates the drain agriculture is having on resources, particularly energy and water. Analysis at a regional scale, however, masks the considerable spatial variability that exists on a more localised level and must be taken into consideration to understand correctly aggregate system response to policy, hydrologic, and climatic change. In this study we present and analyse the results from over 100 farmer interviews conducted in the data-scarce districts of Jalaun and Sitapur on the Gangetic Plains of Uttar Pradesh during the post monsoon period of 2013. Variables such as the volumes and timing of irrigation water applied, sources of water, methods of abstraction and irrigation, and costs incurred are mapped, using qualitative data analysis and GIS. Large differences between the districts emerge, for instance in the region of Jalaun where cheaper canal water is available in addition to groundwater. This has enabled farmers to afford more water efficient technologies such as sprinklers, a practice not found in Sitapur which depends almost exclusively on more expensive diesel pumps. Results are used to delineate the spatial variability in water use practices, along with farmer behaviour and decision making. The primary data are compared with socio-economic information taken from regionally produced statistical abstracts. The combined data are used to identify the main drivers that influence farmer decision-making, which is in turn leading to groundwater overdraught in many parts of North India. Finally

Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, W.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Wittenberg, A.

2009-08-01

The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño) while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

Climate Drivers of Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in the Source Region of Yangtze River

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Y.; Berndtsson, R.; An, D.; Yuan, F.

2017-12-01

Variability of precipitation regime has significant influence on the environment sustainability in the source region of Yangtze River, especially when the vegetation degradation and biodiversity reduction have already occurred. Understanding the linkage between variability of local precipitation and global teleconnection patterns is essential for water resources management. Based on physical reasoning, indices of the climate drivers can provide a practical way of predicting precipitation. Due to high seasonal variability of precipitation, climate drivers of the seasonal precipitation also varies. However, few reports have gone through the teleconnections between large scale patterns with seasonal precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River. The objectives of this study are therefore (1) assessment of temporal trend and spatial variability of precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River; (2) identification of climate indices with strong influence on seasonal precipitation anomalies; (3) prediction of seasonal precipitation based on revealed climate indices. Principal component analysis and Spearman rank correlation were used to detect significant relationships. A feed-forward artificial neural network(ANN) was developed to predict seasonal precipitation using significant correlated climate indices. Different influencing climate indices were revealed for precipitation in each season, with significant level and lag times. Significant influencing factors were selected to be the predictors for ANN model. With correlation coefficients between observed and simulated precipitation over 0.5, the results were eligible to predict the precipitation of spring, summer and winter using teleconnections, which can improve integrated water resources management in the source region of Yangtze River.

IDENTIFICATION OF THOSE VARIABLES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON THE EXPECTED NUMBER OF DAYS OF STAYING IN THE CENTRE DEVELOPMENT REGION OF ROMANIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erika KULCSÁR

2010-06-01

Full Text Available I started from the assumption that there are more variables that have a significant influence on the expected number of days of staying in the Centre Development Region. To identify those variables this paper includes the analysis of variance with two variables that are not interacting, in this case the dependent variable is the question "How many days did you plan to stay in Centre Development Region?" and the independent variables are: "What is the purpose of your stay?" "What is the highest level of education?". Given that there are cases when interactions occur between variables, I also analyzed the interaction effects between the two independent variables. The paper also includes an ANOVA analysis with three variables between which interactions relationships occur. After identifying the dependency relations between the variables I found that the inclusion of the third variable, namely the "Marital status" of respondents, adds value to the model. Following the results obtained by ANOVA analysis, I identified those socio-demographic characteristics that, in my opinion, companies that operate on tourist market in the Center Development Region should consider when fundamenting marketing strategies in tourism.

Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Anderson

2009-08-01

Full Text Available The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

Spatio-temporal analysis of regional PV generation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nuño Martinez, Edgar; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

2016-01-01

Photovoltaic (PV) power is growing in importance worldwide and hence needs to be represented in operation and planning of power system. As opposed to traditional generation technologies, it is characterized by exhibiting both a high variability and a significant spatial dependence. This paper...... presents a fundamental analysis of regional solar generation time series, aiming to potentially facilitate large-scale solar integration. It will focus on characterizing the underlying dependence structure at the system level as well as describing both statistical and temporal properties of regional PV...

NEAR-INFRARED VARIABILITY AMONG YOUNG STELLAR OBJECTS IN THE STAR FORMATION REGION CYGNUS OB7

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wolk, Scott J.; Rice, Thomas S. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Aspin, Colin [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 640 North Aohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States)

2013-08-20

We present an analysis of near-infrared time-series photometry in J, H, and K bands for about 100 epochs of a 1 Degree-Sign Multiplication-Sign 1 Degree-Sign region of the Lynds 1003/1004 dark cloud in the Cygnus OB7 region. Augmented by data from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, we identify 96 candidate disk bearing young stellar objects (YSOs) in the region. Of these, 30 are clearly Class I or earlier. Using the Wide-Field Imaging Camera on the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope, we were able to obtain photometry over three observing seasons, with photometric uncertainty better than 0.05 mag down to J Almost-Equal-To 17. We study detailed light curves and color trajectories of {approx}50 of the YSOs in the monitored field. We investigate the variability and periodicity of the YSOs and find the data are consistent with all YSOs being variable in these wavelengths on timescales of a few years. We divide the variability into four observational classes: (1) stars with periodic variability stable over long timescales, (2) variables which exhibit short-lived cyclic behavior, (3) long-duration variables, and (4) stochastic variables. Some YSO variability defies simple classification. We can explain much of the observed variability as being due to dynamic and rotational changes in the disk, including an asymmetric or changing blocking fraction, changes to the inner disk hole size, as well as changes to the accretion rate. Overall, we find that the Class I:Class II ratio of the cluster is consistent with an age of <1 Myr, with at least one individual, wildly varying source {approx}100, 000 yr old. We have also discovered a Class II eclipsing binary system with a period of 17.87 days.

Hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region and its relationships with large-scale climate anomaly patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Swierczynski, Tina; Brauer, Achim; Kämpf, Lucas; Czymzik, Markus

2017-04-01

Flood triggered detrital layers in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, located at the northern fringe of the European Alps (47°48'N,13°23'E), provide an important archive of regional hydroclimatic variability during the mid- to late Holocene. To improve the interpretation of the flood layer record in terms of large-scale climate variability, we investigate the relationships between observational hydrological records from the region, like the Mondsee lake level, the runoff of the lake's main inflow Griesler Ache, with observed precipitation and global climate patterns. The lake level shows a strong positive linear trend during the observational period in all seasons. Additionally, lake level presents important interannual to multidecadal variations. These variations are associated with distinct seasonal atmospheric circulation patterns. A pronounced anomalous anticyclonic center over the Iberian Peninsula is associated with high lake levels values during winter. This center moves southwestward during spring, summer and autumn. In the same time, a cyclonic anomaly center is recorded over central and western Europe. This anomalous circulation extends southwestward from winter to autumn. Similar atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with river runoff and precipitation variability from the region. High lake levels are associated with positive local precipitation anomalies in all seasons as well as with negative local temperature anomalies during spring, summer and autumn. A correlation analysis reveals that lake level, runoff and precipitation variability is related to large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in all seasons suggesting a possible impact of large-scale climatic modes, like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region. The results presented in this study can be used for a more robust interpretation of the long flood layer record from Lake Mondsee sediments

Optimal depth-based regional frequency analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Wazneh, H.; Chebana, F.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2013-06-01

Classical methods of regional frequency analysis (RFA) of hydrological variables face two drawbacks: (1) the restriction to a particular region which can lead to a loss of some information and (2) the definition of a region that generates a border effect. To reduce the impact of these drawbacks on regional modeling performance, an iterative method was proposed recently, based on the statistical notion of the depth function and a weight function φ. This depth-based RFA (DBRFA) approach was shown to be superior to traditional approaches in terms of flexibility, generality and performance. The main difficulty of the DBRFA approach is the optimal choice of the weight function ϕ (e.g., φ minimizing estimation errors). In order to avoid a subjective choice and naïve selection procedures of φ, the aim of the present paper is to propose an algorithm-based procedure to optimize the DBRFA and automate the choice of ϕ according to objective performance criteria. This procedure is applied to estimate flood quantiles in three different regions in North America. One of the findings from the application is that the optimal weight function depends on the considered region and can also quantify the region's homogeneity. By comparing the DBRFA to the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) method, results show that the DBRFA approach leads to better performances both in terms of relative bias and mean square error.

Relationship between Eurasian large-scale patterns and regional climate variability over the Black and Baltic Seas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stankunavicius, G.; Pupienis, D. [Vilnius Univ. (Lithuania). Dept. of Hydrology and Climatology; Basharin, D. [National Academy of Science of Ukraine, Sevastopol (Ukraine). Sevastopol Marine Hydrophysical Inst.

2012-11-01

Using a NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset and the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis approach we studied interannual to decadal variabilities of the sea-level air pressure (SLP) and the surface air temperature (SAT) fields over Eurasia during the 2nd part of the 20th century. Our results agree with those of the previous studies, which conclude that Eurasian trends are the result of storm-path changes driven by the interdecadal behaviour of the NAO-like meridional dipole pattern in the Atlantic. On interannual and decadal time scales, significant synchronous correlations between correspondent modes of SAT and SLP EOF patterns were found. This fact suggests that there is a strong and stable Eurasian interrelationship between SAT and SLP large-scale fields which affects the local climate of two sub-regions: the Black and Baltic Seas. The climate variability in these sub-regions was studied in terms of Eurasian large-scale surface-temperature and air-pressure patterns responses. We concluded that the sub-regional climate variability substantially differs over the Black and Baltic Seas, and depends on different Eurasian large-scale patterns. We showed that the Baltic Sea region is influenced by the patterns arising primary from NAO-like meridional dipole, as well as Scandinavian patterns, while the Black Sea's SAT/SLP variability is influenced mainly by the second mode EOF (eastern Atlantic) and large scale tropospheric wave structures. (orig.)

Exploring the Links in Monthly to Decadal Variability of the Atmospheric Water Balance Over the Wettest Regions in ERA-20C

Science.gov (United States)

Nogueira, M.

2017-10-01

Monthly-to-decadal variability of the regional precipitation over Intertropical Convergence Zone and north-Atlantic and north-Pacific storm tracks was investigated using ERA-20C reanalysis. Satellite-based precipitation (P) and evaporation (E) climatological patterns were well reproduced by ERA-20C. Regional P and E monthly time series displayed 20% differences, but these decreased rapidly with time scale ( 10% at yearly time scales). Spectral analysis showed good scale-by-scale statistical agreement between ERA-20C and observations. Using ERA-Interim showed no improvement despite the much wider range of information assimilated (including satellites). Remarkably high Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis coefficients (ρDCCA > 0.7 and often ρDCCA > 0.9) revealed tight links between the nonperiodic variability of P, moisture divergence (DIV), and pressure velocity (ω) at monthly-to-decadal time scales over all the wet regions. In contrast, ρDCCA was essentially nonsignificant between nonperiodic P and E or sea surface temperature (SST). Thus, the nonperiodic monthly-to-decadal variability of precipitation in these regions is almost fully controlled by dynamics and not by local E or SST (suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron relation). Analysis of regional nonperiodic standard deviations and power spectra (and respective spectral exponents, β) provided further robustness to this conclusion. Finally, clear transitions in β for P, DIV, and ω between tropical and storm track regions were found. The latter is dominated by transient storms, with energy accumulation at synoptic scales and β β values (0.2 to 0.4) were found in the tropics, implying longer-range autocorrelations and slower decreasing variability and information creation with time scale, consistent with the important forcing from internal modes of variability (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation).

Tannat grape composition responses to spatial variability of temperature in an Uruguay's coastal wine region

Science.gov (United States)

Fourment, Mercedes; Ferrer, Milka; González-Neves, Gustavo; Barbeau, Gérard; Bonnardot, Valérie; Quénol, Hervé

2017-09-01

Spatial variability of temperature was studied in relation to the berry basic composition and secondary compounds of the Tannat cultivar at harvest from vineyards located in Canelones and Montevideo, the most important wine region of Uruguay. Monitoring of berries and recording of temperature were performed in 10 commercial vineyards of Tannat situated in the southern coastal wine region of the country for three vintages (2012, 2013, and 2014). Results from a multivariate correlation analysis between berry composition and temperature over the three vintages showed that (1) Tannat responses to spatial variability of temperature were different over the vintages, (2) correlations between secondary metabolites and temperature were higher than those between primary metabolites, and (3) correlation values between berry composition and climate variables increased when ripening occurred under dry conditions (below average rainfall). For a particular studied vintage (2013), temperatures explained 82.5% of the spatial variability of the berry composition. Daily thermal amplitude was found to be the most important spatial mode of variability with lower values recorded at plots nearest to the sea and more exposed to La Plata River. The highest levels in secondary compounds were found in berries issued from plots situated as far as 18.3 km from La Plata River. The increasing knowledge of temperature spatial variability and its impact on grape berry composition contributes to providing possible issues to adapt grapevine to climate change.

Optimal depth-based regional frequency analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Wazneh

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Classical methods of regional frequency analysis (RFA of hydrological variables face two drawbacks: (1 the restriction to a particular region which can lead to a loss of some information and (2 the definition of a region that generates a border effect. To reduce the impact of these drawbacks on regional modeling performance, an iterative method was proposed recently, based on the statistical notion of the depth function and a weight function φ. This depth-based RFA (DBRFA approach was shown to be superior to traditional approaches in terms of flexibility, generality and performance. The main difficulty of the DBRFA approach is the optimal choice of the weight function ϕ (e.g., φ minimizing estimation errors. In order to avoid a subjective choice and naïve selection procedures of φ, the aim of the present paper is to propose an algorithm-based procedure to optimize the DBRFA and automate the choice of ϕ according to objective performance criteria. This procedure is applied to estimate flood quantiles in three different regions in North America. One of the findings from the application is that the optimal weight function depends on the considered region and can also quantify the region's homogeneity. By comparing the DBRFA to the canonical correlation analysis (CCA method, results show that the DBRFA approach leads to better performances both in terms of relative bias and mean square error.

Intraregional and inter-regional variability of herbicide sensitivity in common arable weed populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

de Mol, Friederike; Gerowitt, Bärbel; Kaczmarek, Sylwia

2015-01-01

The question on intraregional versus inter-regional variability in herbicide sensitivity for weed populations is of major importance, both in extrapolation of model parameters and in herbicide zonal approval procedures. We hypothesised that inter-regional variability in herbicide sensitivity for ...

Extreme Variables in Star Forming Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Contreras Peña, Carlos Eduardo

2015-01-01

in two multi-epoch infrared surveys: the UKIDSS Galactic Plane Survey (GPS) and the Vista Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV). In order to further investigate the nature of the selected variable stars, we use photometric information arising from public surveys at near- to far-infrared wavelengths. In addition we have performed spectroscopic and photometric follow-up for a large subset of the samples arising from GPS and VVV. We analyse the widely separated two-epoch K-band photometry in the 5th, 7th and 8th data releases of the UKIDSS Galactic Plane Survey. We find 71 stars with ΔK > 1 mag, including 2 previously known OH/IR stars and a Nova. Even though the mid-plane is mostly excluded from the dataset, we find the majority (66%) of our sample to be within known star forming regions (SFRs), with two large concentrations in the Serpens OB2 association (11 stars) and the Cygnus-X complex (27 stars). The analysis of the multi-epoch K-band photometry of 2010-2012 data from VVV covering the Galactic disc at |b| explained as arising from shock-excited emission caused by molecular outflows. Whether these molecular outflows are related to outbursts events cannot be confirmed from our data. Adding the GPS and VVV spectroscopic results, we find that between 6 and 14 objects are new additions to the FUor class from their close resemblance to the near-infrared spectra of FUors, and at least 23 more objects are new additions to the eruptive variable class. For most of these we are unable to classify them into any of the original definitions for this variable class. In any case, we are adding up to 37 new stars to the eruptive variable class which would double the current number of known objects. We note that most objects are found to be deeply embedded optically invisible stars, thus increasing the number of objects belonging to this subclass by a much larger factor. In general, objects in our samples which are found to be likely eruptive variable stars show a mixture of

The discrete and localized nature of the variable emission from active regions

Science.gov (United States)

Arndt, Martina Belz; Habbal, Shadia Rifai; Karovska, Margarita

1994-01-01

Using data from the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) Spectroheliometer on Skylab, we study the empirical characteristics of the variable emission in active regions. These simultaneous multi-wavelength observations clearly confirm that active regions consist of a complex of loops at different temperatures. The variable emission from this complex has very well-defined properties that can be quantitatively summarized as follows: (1) It is localized predominantly around the footpoints where it occurs at discrete locations. (2) The strongest variability does not necessarily coincide with the most intense emission. (3) The fraction of the area of the footpoints, (delta n)/N, that exhibits variable emission, varies by +/- 15% as a function of time, at any of the wavelengths measured. It also varies very little from footpoint to footpoint. (4) This fractional variation is temperature dependent with a maximum around 10(exp 5) K. (5) The ratio of the intensity of the variable to the average background emission, (delta I)/(bar-I), also changes with temperature. In addition, we find that these distinctive characteristics persist even when flares occur within the active region.

High-resolution regional climate model evaluation using variable-resolution CESM over California

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, X.; Rhoades, A.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C. M.

2015-12-01

Understanding the effect of climate change at regional scales remains a topic of intensive research. Though computational constraints remain a problem, high horizontal resolution is needed to represent topographic forcing, which is a significant driver of local climate variability. Although regional climate models (RCMs) have traditionally been used at these scales, variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) have recently arisen as an alternative for studying regional weather and climate allowing two-way interaction between these domains without the need for nudging. In this study, the recently developed variable-resolution option within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is assessed for long-term regional climate modeling over California. Our variable-resolution simulations will focus on relatively high resolutions for climate assessment, namely 28km and 14km regional resolution, which are much more typical for dynamically downscaled studies. For comparison with the more widely used RCM method, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used for simulations at 27km and 9km. All simulations use the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) protocols. The time period is from 1979-01-01 to 2005-12-31 (UTC), and year 1979 was discarded as spin up time. The mean climatology across California's diverse climate zones, including temperature and precipitation, is analyzed and contrasted with the Weather Research and Forcasting (WRF) model (as a traditional RCM), regional reanalysis, gridded observational datasets and uniform high-resolution CESM at 0.25 degree with the finite volume (FV) dynamical core. The results show that variable-resolution CESM is competitive in representing regional climatology on both annual and seasonal time scales. This assessment adds value to the use of VRGCMs for projecting climate change over the coming century and improve our understanding of both past and future regional climate related to fine

The cross wavelet analysis of dengue fever variability influenced by meteorological conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yuan-Chien; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Lee, Chieh-Han

2015-04-01

The multiyear variation of meteorological conditions induced by climate change causes the changing diffusion pattern of infectious disease and serious epidemic situation. Among them, dengue fever is one of the most serious vector-borne diseases distributed in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Dengue virus is transmitted by several species of mosquito and causing lots amount of human deaths every year around the world. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of meteorological variables to the temporal variation of dengue fever epidemic in southern Taiwan. Several extreme and average indices of meteorological variables, i.e. temperature and humidity, were used for this analysis, including averaged, maximum and minimum temperature, and average rainfall, maximum 1-hr rainfall, and maximum 24-hr rainfall. This study plans to identify and quantify the nonlinear relationship of meteorological variables and dengue fever epidemic, finding the non-stationary time-frequency relationship and phase lag effects of those time series from 1998-2011 by using cross wavelet method. Results show that meteorological variables all have a significant time-frequency correlation region to dengue fever epidemic in frequency about one year (52 weeks). The associated phases can range from 0 to 90 degrees (0-13 weeks lag from meteorological factors to dengue incidences). Keywords: dengue fever, cross wavelet analysis, meteorological factor

Using variable combination population analysis for variable selection in multivariate calibration.

Science.gov (United States)

Yun, Yong-Huan; Wang, Wei-Ting; Deng, Bai-Chuan; Lai, Guang-Bi; Liu, Xin-bo; Ren, Da-Bing; Liang, Yi-Zeng; Fan, Wei; Xu, Qing-Song

2015-03-03

Variable (wavelength or feature) selection techniques have become a critical step for the analysis of datasets with high number of variables and relatively few samples. In this study, a novel variable selection strategy, variable combination population analysis (VCPA), was proposed. This strategy consists of two crucial procedures. First, the exponentially decreasing function (EDF), which is the simple and effective principle of 'survival of the fittest' from Darwin's natural evolution theory, is employed to determine the number of variables to keep and continuously shrink the variable space. Second, in each EDF run, binary matrix sampling (BMS) strategy that gives each variable the same chance to be selected and generates different variable combinations, is used to produce a population of subsets to construct a population of sub-models. Then, model population analysis (MPA) is employed to find the variable subsets with the lower root mean squares error of cross validation (RMSECV). The frequency of each variable appearing in the best 10% sub-models is computed. The higher the frequency is, the more important the variable is. The performance of the proposed procedure was investigated using three real NIR datasets. The results indicate that VCPA is a good variable selection strategy when compared with four high performing variable selection methods: genetic algorithm-partial least squares (GA-PLS), Monte Carlo uninformative variable elimination by PLS (MC-UVE-PLS), competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (CARS) and iteratively retains informative variables (IRIV). The MATLAB source code of VCPA is available for academic research on the website: http://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/authors/498750. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climatic variability of river outflow in the Pantanal region and the influence of sea surface temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Carlos Batista; Silva, Maria Elisa Siqueira; Ambrizzi, Tércio

2017-07-01

This paper investigates possible linear relationships between climate, hydrology, and oceanic surface variability in the Pantanal region (in South America's central area), over interannual and interdecadal time ranges. In order to verify the mentioned relations, lagged correlation analysis and linear adjustment between river discharge at the Pantanal region and sea surface temperature were used. Composite analysis for atmospheric fields, air humidity flux divergence, and atmospheric circulation at low and high levels, for the period between 1970 and 2003, was analyzed. Results suggest that the river discharge in the Pantanal region is linearly associated with interdecadal and interannual oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, making them good predictors to continental hydrological variables. Considering oceanic areas, 51 % of the annual discharge in the Pantanal region can be linearly explained by mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Subtropical North Pacific, Tropical North Pacific, Extratropical South Pacific, and Extratropical North Atlantic over the period. Considering a forecast approach in seasonal scale, 66 % of the monthly discharge variance in Pantanal, 3 months ahead of SST, is explained by the oceanic variables, providing accuracy around 65 %. Annual discharge values in the Pantanal region are strongly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability (with 52 % of linear correlation), making it possible to consider an interdecadal variability and a consequent subdivision of the whole period in three parts: 1st (1970-1977), 2nd (1978-1996), and 3rd (1997-2003) subperiods. The three subperiods coincide with distinct PDO phases: negative, positive, and negative, respectively. Convergence of humidity flux at low levels and the circulation pattern at high levels help to explain the drier and wetter subperiods. During the wetter 2nd subperiod, the air humidity convergence at low levels is much more evident than during the other two

Coupled decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, regional rainfall and karst spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. De Vita

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Thus far, studies on climate change have focused mainly on the variability of the atmospheric and surface components of the hydrologic cycle, investigating the impact of this variability on the environment, especially with respect to the risks of desertification, droughts and floods. Conversely, the impacts of climate change on the recharge of aquifers and on the variability of groundwater flow have been less investigated, especially in Mediterranean karst areas whose water supply systems depend heavily upon groundwater exploitation.

In this paper, long-term climatic variability and its influence on groundwater recharge were analysed by examining decadal patterns of precipitation, air temperature and spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy, coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.

The time series of precipitation and air temperature were gathered over 90 yr, from 1921 to 2010, using 18 rain gauges and 9 air temperature stations with the most continuous functioning. The time series of the winter NAO index and of the discharges of 3 karst springs, selected from those feeding the major aqueducts systems, were collected for the same period.

Regional normalised indexes of the precipitation, air temperature and karst spring discharges were calculated, and different methods were applied to analyse the related time series, including long-term trend analysis using smoothing numerical techniques, cross-correlation and Fourier analysis.

The investigation of the normalised indexes highlighted the existence of long-term complex periodicities, from 2 to more than 30 yr, with differences in average values of up to approximately ±30% for precipitation and karst spring discharges, which were both strongly correlated with the winter NAO index.

Although the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO had already been demonstrated in the long-term precipitation and streamflow patterns of

Development of a localized probabilistic sensitivity method to determine random variable regional importance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Millwater, Harry; Singh, Gulshan; Cortina, Miguel

2012-01-01

There are many methods to identify the important variable out of a set of random variables, i.e., “inter-variable” importance; however, to date there are no comparable methods to identify the “region” of importance within a random variable, i.e., “intra-variable” importance. Knowledge of the critical region of an input random variable (tail, near-tail, and central region) can provide valuable information towards characterizing, understanding, and improving a model through additional modeling or testing. As a result, an intra-variable probabilistic sensitivity method was developed and demonstrated for independent random variables that computes the partial derivative of a probabilistic response with respect to a localized perturbation in the CDF values of each random variable. These sensitivities are then normalized in absolute value with respect to the largest sensitivity within a distribution to indicate the region of importance. The methodology is implemented using the Score Function kernel-based method such that existing samples can be used to compute sensitivities for negligible cost. Numerical examples demonstrate the accuracy of the method through comparisons with finite difference and numerical integration quadrature estimates. - Highlights: ► Probabilistic sensitivity methodology. ► Determines the “region” of importance within random variables such as left tail, near tail, center, right tail, etc. ► Uses the Score Function approach to reuse the samples, hence, negligible cost. ► No restrictions on the random variable types or limit states.

Interannual variability of mass transport in the Canary region from LADCP data

Science.gov (United States)

Comas-Rodríguez, Isis; Hernández-Guerra, Alonso; Vélez-Belchí, Pedro; Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio

2010-05-01

The variability of the Canary Current is a widely studied topic regarding its role as eastern boundary of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre. The Canary region provides indeed an interesting study area in terms of estimating variability scales of the Subtropical Gyre as well as the water masses dynamics. RAPROCAN (RAdial PROfunda de CANarias - Canary deep hydrographic section) is a project based on the reaching of these goals through the obtaining of hydrographic measures during cruises taking place approximately along 29°N, to the North of the Canary Archipelago, twice a year since 2006. The full depth sampling carried out allows the study of temperature and salinity distribution and the calculation of mass transports across the section. The transport estimates are compared to those obtained from previous measurements and estimates in the region. Therefore, transports and their variability through the last decade are quantified. The most significant advance made to previous works is the use of LADCP (Lowered Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler) data informing the initial geostrophic calculations. Thus, corrections are applied to each geostrophic profile considering the reference velocity obtained from LADCP data. ADCP-referenced transport estimates are obtained, providing a successful comparison between the velocity fields obtained from the hydrographic measures. While this work shows the interannual variability observed in winter since 1997, preliminary results confirm previous hypotheses about the magnitude of the Canary Current. Those results including LADCP data also provide new aspects in the circulation distribution across the Canary Archipelago. Also moored current meter data were taken into account in the up close study of the Current through the Lanzarote Passage. Interesting conclusions were drawn that certify the usefulness of LADCP data in referencing geostrophic calculations, while corroborating the results obtained through this methodology. Hence

Integrated Variable Speed Limits Control and Ramp Metering for Bottleneck Regions on Freeway

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming-hui Ma

2015-01-01

Full Text Available To enhance the efficiency of the existing freeway system and therefore to mitigate traffic congestion and related problems on the freeway mainline lane-drop bottleneck region, the advanced strategy for bottleneck control is essential. This paper proposes a method that integrates variable speed limits and ramp metering for freeway bottleneck region control to relieve the chaos in bottleneck region. To this end, based on the analyses of spatial-temporal patterns of traffic flow, a macroscopic traffic flow model is extended to describe the traffic flow operating characteristic by considering the impacts of variable speed limits in mainstream bottleneck region. In addition, to achieve the goal of balancing the priority of the vehicles on mainline and on-ramp, increasing capacity, and reducing travel delay on bottleneck region, an improved control model, as well as an advanced control strategy that integrates variable speed limits and ramp metering, is developed. The proposed method is tested in simulation for a real freeway infrastructure feed and calibrates real traffic variables. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can substantially improve the traffic flow efficiency of mainline and on-ramp and enhance the quality of traffic flow at the investigated freeway mainline bottleneck.

Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region

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C. M. Philandras

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, the trends and variability of annual precipitation totals and annual rain days over land within the Mediterranean region are analyzed. Long term ground-based observations concerning, on one hand, monthly precipitation totals (1900–2010 and rain days (1965–2010 from 40 meteorological stations within the Mediterranean region were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP of the World Meteorological Organization. On the other hand, high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5° gridded monthly data CRU TS 3.1 were acquired from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, for the period 1901–2009. The two datasets were compared by means of trends and variability, while the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO in the Mediterranean precipitation was examined. In the process, the climatic changes in the precipitation regime between the period 1961–1990 (reference period and the period 2071–2100 (future climate were presented using climate model simulations (RACMO2.1/KNMI. The future climate projections were based on SRES A1B.

The findings of the analysis showed that statistically significant (95% confidence level negative trends of the annual precipitation totals exist in the majority of Mediterranean regions during the period 1901–2009, with an exception of northern Africa, southern Italy and western Iberian peninsula, where slight positive trends (not statistically significant at 95% CL appear. Concerning the annual number of rain days, a pronounced decrease of 20 %, statistically significant (95% confidence level, appears in representative meteorological stations of east Mediterranean, while the trends are insignificant for west and central Mediterranean. Additionally, NAO index was found to be anticorrelated with the precipitation totals and the number of rain days mainly in Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece. These

Comparative glacio-climatological analysis of mass balance variability along the geographical margin of Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Lehoczky, Annamária; Kern, Zoltán; Pongrácz, Rita

2014-05-01

Glacio-climatological studies recognise glacier mass balance changes as high-confident climate indicators. The climatic sensitivity of a glacier does not simply depend on regional climate variability but also influenced via large- and mesoscale atmospheric circulation patterns. This study focuses on recent changes in the mass balance using records from three border regions of Europe, and investigates the relationships between the seasonal mass balance components, regional climatic conditions, and distant atmospheric forcing. Since glaciers in different macro-climatological conditions (i.e., mid-latitudes or high-latitudes, dry-continental or maritime regions) may present strongly diverse mass balance characteristics, the three analysed regions were selected from different glacierised macroregions (using the database of the World Glacier Monitoring Service). These regions belong to the Caucasus Mountains (Central Europe macroregion), the Polar Ural (Northern Asia macroregion), and Svalbard (Arctic Islands macroregion). The analysis focuses on winter, summer, and annual mass balance series of eight glaciers. The climatic variables (atmospheric pressure, air temperature, precipitation) and indices of teleconnection patterns (e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation) are used from the gridded databases of the University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Center for Environmental Prediction. However, the period and length of available mass balance data in the selected regions vary greatly (the first full record is in 1958, Polar Ural; the last is in 2010, Caucasus Mountains), a comparative analysis can be carried out for the period of 1968-1981. Since glaciers from different regions respond to large- and mesoscale climatic forcings differently, and because the mass balance of glaciers within a region often co-vary, our specific objectives are (i) to examine the variability and the

Climate variability and wine quality over Portuguese regions

Science.gov (United States)

Gouveia, Célia M.; Gani, Érico A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

2015-04-01

characterized in each region by high/low quality wines. Finally, we also investigated how climate variability is related to DOC wine quality for different regions using North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Results reveal a strong dependence of wine quality for all regions on maximum temperature and precipitation during spring and summer (the growing season) as expected. However the role of temperature on wine quality seems to be distinct among the diverse regions probably due to their different climate zoning. Moreover, it is shown that the differences associated with high/low quality wine are in agreement with different synoptic fields patterns. Our results suggest that this type of analysis may be used in developing a tool that may help anticipating a vintage/high quality year, based on already available seasonal climate outlooks. Santo F.E., de Lima M.I.P., Ramos A.M., Trigo R.M., Trends in seasonal surface air temperature in mainland Portugal, since 1941, International Journal Climatolology, 34: 1814-1837, doi: 10.1002/joc.3803 (2014) de Lima M.I.P., Santo F.E., Ramos A.M. , Trigo, R.M., Trends and correlations in annual extreme precipitation indices for mainland Portugal, 1941-2007, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI:10.1007/s00704-013-1079-6 (2014) Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project QSECA (PTDC/AAGGLO/4155/2012).

Climate variability and land cover change over the North American monsoon region (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, X.; Scheftic, W. D.; Broxton, P. D.

2013-12-01

The North American Monsoon System over Mexico and southwestern United States represents a weather/climate and ecosystem coupled "macrosystem". The weather and climate affect the seasonal and interannual variability of ecosystem, while the ecosystem change affects surface energy, water, and carbon fluxes that, in turn, affect weather and climate. Furthermore, long-term weather/climate data have a much coarser horizontal resolution than the satellite land cover data. Here the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data at 32 km grid spacing will be combined with various satellite remote sensing products at 1 km and/or 8 km resolution from AVHRR, MODIS, and SPOT for the period of 1982 to present. Our analysis includes: a) precipitation, wind, and precipitable water data from NARR to characterize the North American monsoon; b) land cover type, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), green vegetation fraction, and leaf-area index (LAI) data to characterize the seasonal and interannual variability of ecosystem; c) assessing the consistency of various satellite products; and d) testing the coherence in the weather/climate and ecosystem variability.

An alternative methodological approach to value analysis of regions, municipal corporations and clusters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mojmír Sabolovič

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with theoretical conception of value analysis of regions, municipal corporations and clusters. The subject of this paper is heterodox approach to sensitivity analysis of finite set of variables based on non-additive measure. For dynamic analysis of trajectory of general value are sufficient robust models based on maximum entropy principle. Findings concern explanation of proper fuzzy integral – Choquet integral. The fuzzy measure is represented by theory of capacities (Choquet, 1953 on powerset. In fine, the conception of the New integral for capacities (Lehler, 2005 is discussed. Value analysis and transmission constitutes remarkable aspect of performance evaluation of regions, municipal corporations and clusters. In the light of high ratio of soft variables, social behavior, intangible assets and human capital within those types of subjects the fuzzy integral introduce useful tool for modeling. The New integral afterwards concerns considerable characteristic of people behavior – risk averse articulated concave function and non-additive operator. Results comprehended tools enabling observation of synergy, redundancy and inhibition of value variables as consequence of non-additive measure. In fine, results induced issues for future research.

Regional frameworks applied to hydrology: can landscape-based frameworks capture the hydrologic variability?

Science.gov (United States)

R. McManamay; D. Orth; C. Dolloff; E. Frimpong

2011-01-01

Regional frameworks have been used extensively in recent years to aid in broad-scale management. Widely used landscape-based regional frameworks, such as hydrologic landscape regions (HLRs) and physiographic provinces, may provide predictive tools of hydrologic variability. However, hydrologic-based regional frameworks, created using only streamflow data, are also...

Assessment of regional air pollution variability in Istanbul

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sen, Z.; Oztopal, A.

2001-01-01

Air pollution concentrations have temporal and spatial variations depending on the prevailing weather conditions, topographic features, city building heights and locations. When the measurements of air pollutants are available at set measurement sites, the regional variability degree of air pollutants is quantified using the point cumulative semi-variogram (PCSV). This technique provides a systematic method for calculating the changes in the concentrations of air pollutants with distance from a specific site. Regional variations of sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) and total suspended particulate (TSP) matter concentrations in Istanbul city were evaluated using the PCSV concept. The data were available from 16 different air pollution measurement stations scattered all over the city for a period from 1988 to 1994. Monthly regional variation maps were drawn in and around the city at different radii of influence. These maps provide a reference for measuring future changes of air pollution in the city. (author)

Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)

2015-02-20

Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

A comparison of regional flood frequency analysis approaches in a simulation framework

Science.gov (United States)

Ganora, D.; Laio, F.

2016-07-01

Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve at ungauged (or scarcely gauged) sites. Different RFA approaches exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest, but it is not clear in the literature if a specific method systematically outperforms the others. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison by building up a virtual environment based on synthetically generated data. The considered regional approaches include: (i) a unique regional curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model where homogeneous subregions are determined through cluster analysis; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially smooth estimation procedure where the parameters of the regional model vary continuously along the space. Virtual environments are generated considering different patterns of heterogeneity, including step change and smooth variations. If the region is heterogeneous, with the parent distribution changing continuously within the region, the spatially smooth regional approach outperforms the others, with overall errors 10-50% lower than the other methods. In the case of a step-change, the spatially smooth and clustering procedures perform similarly if the heterogeneity is moderate, while clustering procedures work better when the step-change is severe. To extend our findings, an extensive sensitivity analysis has been performed to investigate the effect of sample length, number of virtual stations, return period of the predicted quantile, variability of the scale parameter of the parent distribution, number of predictor variables and different parent distribution. Overall, the spatially smooth approach appears as the most robust approach as its performances are more stable across different patterns of heterogeneity, especially when short records are

Rainfall variability, climate change and regionalization in the African monsoon region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fontaine, Bernard; Roucou, Pascal; Vigaud, Nicolas; Camara, Moctar; Konare, Abdourahamane; Sanda, Seidou Ibrah; Diedhiou, Arona; Janicot, Serge

2012-01-01

This summary recalls some results at the end of the AMMA international experiment (2003-2010) in terms of variability of the African monsoon at the intra-seasonal to multi-decadal scales and of climate prospective. The results confirmed the weight of surface temperatures and marine tele-connections for inter-annual and decadal fluctuations and stressed the importance of atmospheric variability. They also described the dominant modes of intra-seasonal variability as their interactions with the surface. Several hypotheses involving memory effects related to soil water and vegetation, particularly in boreal spring and autumn have also been made. Prospective analysis from model output suggests rainfall surplus around 2050 over the Eastern-central Sahel and relative deficit to the West. Phase 2 of AMMA (2010-2020) will focus more on aspects that have a high social impact in direct collaboration with meteorological services predictability, prediction scores, operational indicators, evaluation of the part of anthropogenic forcing in the current and future variations. (authors)

Impact of Variable-Resolution Meshes on Regional Climate Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Fowler, L. D.; Skamarock, W. C.; Bruyere, C. L.

2014-12-01

The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is currently being used for seasonal-scale simulations on globally-uniform and regionally-refined meshes. Our ongoing research aims at analyzing simulations of tropical convective activity and tropical cyclone development during one hurricane season over the North Atlantic Ocean, contrasting statistics obtained with a variable-resolution mesh against those obtained with a quasi-uniform mesh. Analyses focus on the spatial distribution, frequency, and intensity of convective and grid-scale precipitations, and their relative contributions to the total precipitation as a function of the horizontal scale. Multi-month simulations initialized on May 1st 2005 using ERA-Interim re-analyses indicate that MPAS performs satisfactorily as a regional climate model for different combinations of horizontal resolutions and transitions between the coarse and refined meshes. Results highlight seamless transitions for convection, cloud microphysics, radiation, and land-surface processes between the quasi-uniform and locally- refined meshes, despite the fact that the physics parameterizations were not developed for variable resolution meshes. Our goal of analyzing the performance of MPAS is twofold. First, we want to establish that MPAS can be successfully used as a regional climate model, bypassing the need for nesting and nudging techniques at the edges of the computational domain as done in traditional regional climate modeling. Second, we want to assess the performance of our convective and cloud microphysics parameterizations as the horizontal resolution varies between the lower-resolution quasi-uniform and higher-resolution locally-refined areas of the global domain.

Morphometric variability of Arctodiaptomus salinus (Copepoda) in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region

OpenAIRE

ANUFRIIEVA, Elena V.; SHADRIN, Nickolai V.

2015-01-01

Inter-species variability in morphological traits creates a need to know the range of variability of characteristics in the species for taxonomic and ecological tasks. Copepoda Arctodiaptomus salinus, which inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa, plays a dominant role in plankton of different water bodies-from fresh to hypersaline. This work assesses the intra- and inter-population morphometric variability of A. salinus in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region and discusses some o...

Life-history strategies associated with local population variability confer regional stability.

Science.gov (United States)

Pribil, Stanislav; Houlahan, Jeff E

2003-07-07

A widely held ecological tenet is that, at the local scale, populations of K-selected species (i.e. low fecundity, long lifespan and large body size) will be less variable than populations of r-selected species (i.e. high fecundity, short lifespan and small body size). We examined the relationship between long-term population trends and life-history attributes for 185 bird species in the Czech Republic and found that, at regional spatial scales and over moderate temporal scales (100-120 years), K-selected bird species were more likely to show both large increases and decreases in population size than r-selected species. We conclude that life-history attributes commonly associated with variable populations at the local scale, confer stability at the regional scale.

A comprehensive analysis of coherent rainfall patterns in China and potential drivers. Part I: Interannual variability

Science.gov (United States)

Stephan, Claudia Christine; Klingaman, Nicholas Pappas; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew George; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Guo, Liang

2018-06-01

Interannual rainfall variability in China affects agriculture, infrastructure and water resource management. To improve its understanding and prediction, many studies have associated precipitation variability with particular causes for specific seasons and regions. Here, a consistent and objective method, Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis, is applied to 1951-2007 high-resolution precipitation observations over China in all seasons. Instead of maximizing the explained space-time variance, the method identifies regions in China that best explain the temporal variability in domain-averaged rainfall. The EOT method is validated by the reproduction of known relationships to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): high positive correlations with ENSO are found in eastern China in winter, along the Yangtze River in summer, and in southeast China during spring. New findings include that wintertime rainfall variability along the southeast coast is associated with anomalous convection over the tropical eastern Atlantic and communicated to China through a zonal wavenumber-three Rossby wave. Furthermore, spring rainfall variability in the Yangtze valley is related to upper-tropospheric midlatitude perturbations that are part of a Rossby wave pattern with its origin in the North Atlantic. A circumglobal wave pattern in the northern hemisphere is also associated with autumn precipitation variability in eastern areas. The analysis is objective, comprehensive, and produces timeseries that are tied to specific locations in China. This facilitates the interpretation of associated dynamical processes, is useful for understanding the regional hydrological cycle, and allows the results to serve as a benchmark for assessing general circulation models.

Quantitative analysis of spatial variability of geotechnical parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Xing

2018-04-01

Geotechnical parameters are the basic parameters of geotechnical engineering design, while the geotechnical parameters have strong regional characteristics. At the same time, the spatial variability of geotechnical parameters has been recognized. It is gradually introduced into the reliability analysis of geotechnical engineering. Based on the statistical theory of geostatistical spatial information, the spatial variability of geotechnical parameters is quantitatively analyzed. At the same time, the evaluation of geotechnical parameters and the correlation coefficient between geotechnical parameters are calculated. A residential district of Tianjin Survey Institute was selected as the research object. There are 68 boreholes in this area and 9 layers of mechanical stratification. The parameters are water content, natural gravity, void ratio, liquid limit, plasticity index, liquidity index, compressibility coefficient, compressive modulus, internal friction angle, cohesion and SP index. According to the principle of statistical correlation, the correlation coefficient of geotechnical parameters is calculated. According to the correlation coefficient, the law of geotechnical parameters is obtained.

Influence of soil physical and chemical variables on species composition and richness of plants in the arid region of Tabuk, Saudi Arabia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Al-Mutairi Khalid Awadh

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The present study aims to investigate the effect of soil physical and chemical variables on the species richness and the floristic composition in four sites (Alwaz, Alqan, Sharma and Zetah of Tabuk region in the Northwestern part of Arabian Peninsula. Only organic matter (OM, pH and calcium (Ca showed significant differences (P < 0.05 amongst the four studied sites. Only magnesium and sodium were selected in the forward regression model and showed to be strong drivers of species richness of plants in Tabuk region (Adj-R2 = 0.438, F2,13 = 6.85, P = 0.009. The multivariate analysis of canonical correspondence analysis (CCA was applied to reveal the effect of the physical and chemical variables on the species composition of the plants. The CCA classifies the plant species into three groups based on their preference to the environmental variables. The first group of plant species (Group 1 is characterised by positive preference to the chloride (Cl and negative relationship with OM and pH. The second group (Group 2 is positively correlated with most of the soil variables such as OM, calcium (Ca, potassium (K, bicarbonate (HCO3, electrical conductivity (EC, sulphate (SO4 and sodium (Na. The third group (Group 3 has positive relationship with carbonate (CO3 and negative relationship with EC and magnesium (Mg. The chloride, sodium, sulphate, EC and carbonate are the main environmental factors influencing the plant species composition in Tabuk region. The cluster analysis based on the Euclidian measure shows that Alqan and Zetah have closer species composition compared to Sharma.

Moment-to-Moment BOLD Signal Variability Reflects Regional Changes in Neural Flexibility across the Lifespan.

Science.gov (United States)

Nomi, Jason S; Bolt, Taylor S; Ezie, C E Chiemeka; Uddin, Lucina Q; Heller, Aaron S

2017-05-31

Variability of neuronal responses is thought to underlie flexible and optimal brain function. Because previous work investigating BOLD signal variability has been conducted within task-based fMRI contexts on adults and older individuals, very little is currently known regarding regional changes in spontaneous BOLD signal variability in the human brain across the lifespan. The current study used resting-state fMRI data from a large sample of male and female human participants covering a wide age range (6-85 years) across two different fMRI acquisition parameters (TR = 0.645 and 1.4 s). Variability in brain regions including a key node of the salience network (anterior insula) increased linearly across the lifespan across datasets. In contrast, variability in most other large-scale networks decreased linearly over the lifespan. These results demonstrate unique lifespan trajectories of BOLD variability related to specific regions of the brain and add to a growing literature demonstrating the importance of identifying normative trajectories of functional brain maturation. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Although brain signal variability has traditionally been considered a source of unwanted noise, recent work demonstrates that variability in brain signals during task performance is related to brain maturation in old age as well as individual differences in behavioral performance. The current results demonstrate that intrinsic fluctuations in resting-state variability exhibit unique maturation trajectories in specific brain regions and systems, particularly those supporting salience detection. These results have implications for investigations of brain development and aging, as well as interpretations of brain function underlying behavioral changes across the lifespan. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/375539-10$15.00/0.

Morphometric variability of Arctodiaptomus salinus (Copepoda) in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region.

Science.gov (United States)

Anufriieva, Elena V; Shadrin, Nickolai V

2015-11-18

Inter-species variability in morphological traits creates a need to know the range of variability of characteristics in the species for taxonomic and ecological tasks. Copepoda Arctodiaptomus salinus, which inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa, plays a dominant role in plankton of different water bodies-from fresh to hypersaline. This work assesses the intra- and inter-population morphometric variability of A. salinus in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region and discusses some observed regularities. The variability of linear body parameters and proportions was studied. The impacts of salinity, temperature, and population density on morphological characteristics and their variability can manifest themselves in different ways at the intra- and inter-population levels. A significant effect of salinity, pH and temperature on the body proportions was not found. Their intra-population variability is dependent on temperature and salinity. Sexual dimorphism of A. salinus manifests in different linear parameters, proportions, and their variability. There were no effects of temperature, pH and salinity on the female/male parameter ratio. There were significant differences in the body proportions of males and females in different populations. The influence of temperature, salinity, and population density can be attributed to 80%-90% of intra-population variability of A. salinus. However, these factors can explain less than 40% of inter-population differences. Significant differences in the body proportions of males and females from different populations may suggest that some local populations of A. salinus in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region are in the initial stages of differentiation.

Near-surface wind variability over the broader Adriatic region: insights from an ensemble of regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Belušić, Andreina; Prtenjak, Maja Telišman; Güttler, Ivan; Ban, Nikolina; Leutwyler, David; Schär, Christoph

2018-06-01

Over the past few decades the horizontal resolution of regional climate models (RCMs) has steadily increased, leading to a better representation of small-scale topographic features and more details in simulating dynamical aspects, especially in coastal regions and over complex terrain. Due to its complex terrain, the broader Adriatic region represents a major challenge to state-of-the-art RCMs in simulating local wind systems realistically. The objective of this study is to identify the added value in near-surface wind due to the refined grid spacing of RCMs. For this purpose, we use a multi-model ensemble composed of CORDEX regional climate simulations at 0.11° and 0.44° grid spacing, forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, a COSMO convection-parameterizing simulation at 0.11° and a COSMO convection-resolving simulation at 0.02° grid spacing. Surface station observations from this region and satellite QuikSCAT data over the Adriatic Sea have been compared against daily output obtained from the available simulations. Both day-to-day wind and its frequency distribution are examined. The results indicate that the 0.44° RCMs rarely outperform ERA-Interim reanalysis, while the performance of the high-resolution simulations surpasses that of ERA-Interim. We also disclose that refining the grid spacing to a few km is needed to properly capture the small-scale wind systems. Finally, we show that the simulations frequently yield the accurate angle of local wind regimes, such as for the Bora flow, but overestimate the associated wind magnitude. Finally, spectral analysis shows good agreement between measurements and simulations, indicating the correct temporal variability of the wind speed.

Mesopause region temperature variability and its trend in southern Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Venturini, Mateus S.; Bageston, José V.; Caetano, Nattan R.; Peres, Lucas V.; Bencherif, Hassan; Schuch, Nelson J.

2018-03-01

Nowadays, the study of the upper atmosphere is increasing, mostly because of the need to understand the patterns of Earth's atmosphere. Since studies on global warming have become very important for the development of new technologies, understanding all regions of the atmosphere becomes an unavoidable task. In this paper, we aim to analyze the temperature variability and its trend in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region during a period of 12 years (from 2003 to 2014). For this purpose, three different heights, i.e., 85, 90 and 95 km, were focused on in order to investigate the upper atmosphere, and a geographic region different to other studies was chosen, in the southern region of Brazil, centered in the city of Santa Maria, RS (29°41'02'' S; 53°48'25'' W). In order to reach the objectives of this work, temperature data from the SABER instrument (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry), aboard NASA's Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics (TIMED) satellite, were used. Finally, two cases were studied related to distinct grids of latitude/longitude used to obtain the mean temperature profiles. The first case considered a grid of 20° × 20° lat/long, centered in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. In the second case, the region was reduced to a size of 15° × 15° in order to compare the results and discuss the two cases in terms of differences or similarities in temperature trends. Observations show that the size of the geographical area used for the average temperature profiles can influence the results of variability and trend of the temperature. In addition, reducing the time duration of analyses from 24 to 12 h a day also influences the trend significantly. For the smaller geographical region (15° × 15°) and the 12 h daily time window (09:00-21:00 UT) it was found that the main contributions for the temperature variability at the three heights were the annual and semi-annual cycles and the solar flux influence

Self-organizing map network-based precipitation regionalization for the Tibetan Plateau and regional precipitation variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Nini; Yin, Jianchuan

2017-12-01

A precipitation-based regionalization for the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was investigated for regional precipitation trend analysis and frequency analysis using data from 1113 grid points covering the period 1900-2014. The results utilizing self-organizing map (SOM) network suggest that four clusters of precipitation coherent zones can be identified, including the southwestern edge, the southern edge, the southeastern region, and the north central region. Regionalization results of the SOM network satisfactorily represent the influences of the atmospheric circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon, the south Asian summer monsoon, and the mid-latitude westerlies. Regionalization results also well display the direct impacts of physical geographical features of the TP such as orography, topography, and land-sea distribution. Regional-scale annual precipitation trend as well as regional differences of annual and seasonal total precipitation were investigated by precipitation index such as precipitation concentration index (PCI) and Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI). Results demonstrate significant negative long-term linear trends in southeastern TP and the north central part of the TP, indicating arid and semi-arid regions in the TP are getting drier. The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method shows an evolution of the main cycle with 4 and 12 months for all the representative grids of four sub-regions. The cross-wavelet analysis suggests that predominant and effective period of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on monthly precipitation is around ˜12 months, except for the representative grid of the northwestern region.

Analysis of the in vivo confocal Raman spectral variability in human skin

Science.gov (United States)

Mogilevych, Borys; dos Santos, Laurita; Rangel, Joao L.; Grancianinov, Karen J. S.; Sousa, Mariane P.; Martin, Airton A.

2015-06-01

Biochemical composition of the skin changes in each layer and, therefore, the skin spectral profile vary with the depth. In this work, in vivo Confocal Raman spectroscopy studies were performed at different skin regions and depth profile (from the surface down to 10 μm) of the stratum corneum, to verify the variability and reproducibility of the intra- and interindividual Raman data. The Raman spectra were collected from seven healthy female study participants using a confocal Raman system from Rivers Diagnostic, with 785 nm excitation line and a CCD detector. Measurements were performed in the volar forearm region, at three different points at different depth, with the step of 2 μm. For each depth point, three spectra were acquired. Data analysis included the descriptive statistics (mean, standard deviation and residual) and Pearson's correlation coefficient calculation. Our results show that inter-individual variability is higher than intraindividual variability, and variability inside the SC is higher than on the skin surface. In all these cases we obtained r values, higher than 0.94, which correspond to high correlation between Raman spectra. It reinforces the possibility of the data reproducibility and direct comparison of in vivo results obtained with different study participants of the same age group and phototype.

Tidal and sub-tidal sea level variability at the northern shelf of the Brazilian Northeast Region.

Science.gov (United States)

Frota, Felipe F; Truccolo, Eliane C; Schettini, Carlos A F

2016-09-01

A characterization of the sea level variability at tidal and sub-tidal frequencies at the northern shore of the Brazilian Northeast shelf for the period 2009-2011 is presented. The sea level data used was obtained from the Permanent Geodetic Tide Network from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics for the Fortaleza gauge station. Local wind data was also used to assess its effects on the low-frequency sea level variability. The variability of the sea level was investigated by classical harmonic analysis and by morphology assessment over the tidal signal. The low frequencies were obtained by low-pass filtering. The tidal range oscillated with the highest value of 3.3 m during the equinox and the lowest value of 0.7 m during the solstice. Differences between the spring and neap tides were as high as 1 m. A total of 59 tidal constituents were obtained from harmonic analysis, and the regional tide was classified as semi-diurnal pure with a form number of 0.11. An assessment of the monthly variability of the main tidal constituents (M2, S2, N2, O1, and K1) indicated that the main semi-diurnal solar S2 presented the highest variability, ranging from 0.21 to 0.41 m; it was the main element altering the form number through the years. The low frequency sea-level variability is negligible, although there is a persistent signal with an energy peak in the 10-15 day period, and it cannot be explained by the effects of local winds.

Constancy despite variability: Local and regional macrofaunal diversity in intertidal seagrass beds

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Boyé, Aurélien; Legendre, Pierre; Grall, Jacques; Gauthier, Olivier

2017-12-01

The importance of seagrass habitat for the diversity of benthic fauna has been extensively studied worldwide. Most of the information available is, however, about α diversity while little consideration has been given to β diversity. To fill the knowledge gaps regarding the variability of epifaunal and infaunal seagrass assemblages at large spatial and temporal scales, we scrutinized an extensive dataset covering five years of monitoring of eight intertidal Zostera marina meadows around Brittany (France). High species richness arose at the regional scale from the combination of high local diversity of the meadows and substantial among-meadows β diversity. Epifauna and infauna appeared as distinct self-communities as they displayed different spatial and temporal patterns and varied in their responses to local hydrological conditions. Infauna had higher total β diversity than epifauna due to a tighter link to the great variability of local environmental conditions in the region. Both exhibited substantial variations in species composition and community structure with variations of dominant species that were accompanied by extensive change in numerous rare species. The dominant epifaunal species were all grazers. Changes in species composition were induced mostly by species replacement and rarely by richness differences between meadows. Indeed, species richness remained within a narrow range for all seagrass beds, suggesting a potential carrying capacity for species richness of the meadows. Overall, all meadows contributed equally to the regional turnover of seagrass macrofauna, emphasizing high variability and complementarity among beds at the regional scale. The implications of this substantial within-seagrass variability for the functioning of benthic ecosystems at broad scale and for conservation purposes in habitat mosaics warrant further investigations but our results clearly advocate taking into account within-habitat variation when evaluating the diversity

Long-term Variability of H2CO Masers in Star-forming Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Andreev, N.; Araya, E. D.; Hoffman, I. M.; Hofner, P.; Kurtz, S.; Linz, H.; Olmi, L.; Lorran-Costa, I.

2017-10-01

We present results of a multi-epoch monitoring program on variability of 6 cm formaldehyde (H2CO) masers in the massive star-forming region NGC 7538 IRS 1 from 2008 to 2015, conducted with the Green Bank Telescope, the Westerbork Radio Telescope , and the Very Large Array. We found that the similar variability behaviors of the two formaldehyde maser velocity components in NGC 7538 IRS 1 (which was pointed out by Araya and collaborators in 2007) have continued. The possibility that the variability is caused by changes in the maser amplification path in regions with similar morphology and kinematics is discussed. We also observed 12.2 GHz methanol and 22.2 GHz water masers toward NGC 7538 IRS 1. The brightest maser components of CH3OH and H2O species show a decrease in flux density as a function of time. The brightest H2CO maser component also shows a decrease in flux density and has a similar LSR velocity to the brightest H2O and 12.2 GHz CH3OH masers. The line parameters of radio recombination lines and the 20.17 and 20.97 GHz CH3OH transitions in NGC 7538 IRS 1 are also reported. In addition, we observed five other 6 cm formaldehyde maser regions. We found no evidence of significant variability of the 6 cm masers in these regions with respect to previous observations, the only possible exception being the maser in G29.96-0.02. All six sources were also observed in the {{{H}}}213{CO} isotopologue transition of the 6 cm H2CO line; {{{H}}}213{CO} absorption was detected in five of the sources. Estimated column density ratios [{{{H}}}212{CO}]/[{{{H}}}213{CO}] are reported.

Variability of apparently homogeneous soilscapes in São Paulo state, Brazil: I. spatial analysis

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M. van Den Berg

2000-06-01

Full Text Available The spatial variability of strongly weathered soils under sugarcane and soybean/wheat rotation was quantitatively assessed on 33 fields in two regions in São Paulo State, Brazil: Araras (15 fields with sugarcane and Assis (11 fields with sugarcane and seven fields with soybean/wheat rotation. Statistical methods used were: nested analysis of variance (for 11 fields, semivariance analysis and analysis of variance within and between fields. Spatial levels from 50 m to several km were analyzed. Results are discussed with reference to a previously published study carried out in the surroundings of Passo Fundo (RS. Similar variability patterns were found for clay content, organic C content and cation exchange capacity. The fields studied are quite homogeneous with respect to these relatively stable soil characteristics. Spatial variability of other characteristics (resin extractable P, pH, base- and Al-saturation and also soil colour, varies with region and, or land use management. Soil management for sugarcane seems to have induced modifications to greater depths than for soybean/wheat rotation. Surface layers of soils under soybean/wheat present relatively little variation, apparently as a result of very intensive soil management. The major part of within-field variation occurs at short distances (< 50 m in all study areas. Hence, little extra information would be gained by increasing sampling density from, say, 1/km² to 1/50 m². For many purposes, the soils in the study regions can be mapped with the same observation density, but residual variance will not be the same in all areas. Bulk sampling may help to reveal spatial patterns between 50 and 1.000 m.

YSOVAR: MID-INFRARED VARIABILITY AMONG YSOs IN THE STAR FORMATION REGION GGD12-15

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wolk, Scott J.; Günther, H. Moritz; Poppenhaeger, Katja; Forbrich, J. [Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Cody, A. M. [NASA Ames Research Center, M/S 244-5 Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States); Rebull, L. M.; Stauffer, J. R. [Spitzer Science Center/Caltech, 1200 E. California Blvd., Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Gutermuth, R. A. [Department of Astronomy, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003 (United States); Hillenbrand, L. A. [Department of Astronomy, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Plavchan, P. [Department of Physics Astronomy and Materials Science, Missouri State University, Springfield, MO 65897 (United States); Covey, K. R. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Western Washington Univ., Bellingham, WA 98225-9164 (United States); Song, Inseok, E-mail: swolk@cfa.harvard.edu [Physics and Astronomy Department, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602-2451 (United States)

2015-11-15

We present an IR-monitoring survey with the Spitzer Space Telescope of the star-forming region GGD 12-15. More than 1000 objects were monitored, including about 350 objects within the central 5′, which is found to be especially dense in cluster members. The monitoring took place over 38 days and is part of the Young Stellar Object VARiability project. The region was also the subject of a contemporaneous 67 ks Chandra observation. The field includes 119 previously identified pre-main sequence star candidates. X-rays are detected from 164 objects, 90 of which are identified with cluster members. Overall, we find that about half the objects in the central 5′ are young stellar objects (YSOs) based on a combination of their spectral energy distribution, IR variability, and X-ray emission. Most of the stars with IR excess relative to a photosphere show large amplitude (>0.1 mag) mid-infrared (mid-IR) variability. There are 39 periodic sources, and all but one is found to be a cluster member. Almost half of the periodic sources do not show IR excesses. Overall, more than 85% of the Class I, flat spectrum, and Class II sources are found to vary. The amplitude of the variability is larger in more embedded YSOs. Most of the Class I/II objects exhibit redder colors in a fainter state, which is compatible with time-variable extinction. A few become bluer when fainter, which can be explained with significant changes in the structure of the inner disk. A search for changes in the IR due to X-ray events is carried out, but the low number of flares prevented an analysis of the direct impact of X-ray flares on the IR light curves. However, we find that X-ray detected Class II sources have longer timescales for change in the MIR than a similar set of non-X-ray detected Class IIs.

Intraseasonal variability of organized convective systems in the Central Andes: Relationship to Regional Dynamical Features

Science.gov (United States)

Mohr, K. I.; Slayback, D. A.; Nicholls, S.; Yager, K.

2013-12-01

The Andes extend from the west coast of Colombia (10N) to the southern tip of Chile (53S). In southern Peru and Bolivia, the Central Andes is split into separate eastern and western cordilleras, with a high plateau (≥ 3000 m), the Altiplano, between them. Because 90% of the Earth's tropical mountain glaciers are located in the Central Andes, our study focuses on this region, defining its zonal extent as 7S-21S and the meridional extent as the terrain 1000 m and greater. Although intense convection occurs during the wet season in the Altiplano, it is not included in the lists of regions with frequent or the most intense convection. The scarcity of in-situ observations with sufficient density and temporal resolution to resolve individual storms or even mesoscale-organized cloud systems and documented biases in microwave-based rainfall products in poorly gauged mountainous regions have impeded the development of an extensive literature on convection and convective systems in this region. With the tropical glaciers receding at unprecedented rates, leaving seasonal precipitation as an increasingly important input to the water balance in alpine valley ecosystems and streams, understanding the nature and characteristics of the seasonal precipitation becomes increasingly important for the rural economies in this region. Previous work in analyzing precipitation in the Central Andes has emphasized interannual variability with respect to ENSO, this is the first study to focus on shorter scale variability with respect to organized convection. The present study took advantage of the University of Utah's Precipitation Features database compiled from 14 years of TRMM observations (1998-2012), supplemented by field observations of rainfall and streamflow, historical gauge data, and long-term WRF-simulations, to analyze the intraseasonal variability of precipitating systems and their relationship regional dynamical features such as the Bolivian High. Through time series and

Urban vs. Rural CLIL: An Analysis of Input-Related Variables, Motivation and Language Attainment

Science.gov (United States)

Alejo, Rafael; Piquer-Píriz, Ana

2016-01-01

The present article carries out an in-depth analysis of the differences in motivation, input-related variables and linguistic attainment of the students at two content and language integrated learning (CLIL) schools operating within the same institutional and educational context, the Spanish region of Extremadura, and differing only in terms of…

Harmonic and complex analysis in several variables

CERN Document Server

Krantz, Steven G

2017-01-01

Authored by a ranking authority in harmonic analysis of several complex variables, this book embodies a state-of-the-art entrée at the intersection of two important fields of research: complex analysis and harmonic analysis. Written with the graduate student in mind, it is assumed that the reader has familiarity with the basics of complex analysis of one and several complex variables as well as with real and functional analysis. The monograph is largely self-contained and develops the harmonic analysis of several complex variables from the first principles. The text includes copious examples, explanations, an exhaustive bibliography for further reading, and figures that illustrate the geometric nature of the subject. Each chapter ends with an exercise set. Additionally, each chapter begins with a prologue, introducing the reader to the subject matter that follows; capsules presented in each section give perspective and a spirited launch to the segment; preludes help put ideas into context. Mathematicians and...

Mitochondrial DNA control region variability in wild boars from west Balkans

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Đan Mihajla

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The wild boar (Sus scrofa is one of most abundant game species in hunting areas of Balkan region. The large fraction of pre-glacial genetic diversity in wild boar populations from the Balkans was addressed due to high proportion of unique mtDNA haplotypes found in Greece, indicating Balkan as main refugial area for wild boars. The aim of the present study is to characterize mitochondrial DNA control region variability in wild boars from different areas in the West Balkan region, in order to evaluate level of genetic variability, to detect unique haplotypes and to infer possible structuring. The total number of 163 individuals from different sampling localities were included in the study. A fragment of the mtDNA control region was amplified and sequenced by standard procedures. Population genetic analyses were performed using several computer packages: BioEdit, ARLEQUIN 3.5.1.2., Network 4.6.0.0 and MEGA5. Eleven different haplotypes were identified and haplotype diversity was 0.676, nucleotide diversity 0.0026, and the average number of nucleotide differences (k 1.169. The mismatch distribution and neutrality tests indicated the expansion of the all populations. It is shown that high level of genetic diversity is present in the wild boars from the West Balkan region and we have managed to detect regional unique haplotypes in high frequency. Genetic diversity differences have been found in regional wild boar groups, clustering them in two main clusters, but further speculations on the reasons for the observed clustering are prevented due to restricted informativness of the single locus marker. Obtained knowledge of genetic variation in the wild boar may be relevant for improving knowledge of the phylogeny and phylogeography of the wild boars, but as well as for hunting societies and responsible authorities for the effective control of wild boar populations.

Variability of African Farming Systems from Phenological Analysis of NDVI Time Series

Science.gov (United States)

Vrieling, Anton; deBeurs, K. M.; Brown, Molly E.

2011-01-01

Food security exists when people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food at all times to meet their dietary needs. The natural resource base is one of the many factors affecting food security. Its variability and decline creates problems for local food production. In this study we characterize for sub-Saharan Africa vegetation phenology and assess variability and trends of phenological indicators based on NDVI time series from 1982 to 2006. We focus on cumulated NDVI over the season (cumNDVI) which is a proxy for net primary productivity. Results are aggregated at the level of major farming systems, while determining also spatial variability within farming systems. High temporal variability of cumNDVI occurs in semiarid and subhumid regions. The results show a large area of positive cumNDVI trends between Senegal and South Sudan. These correspond to positive CRU rainfall trends found and relate to recovery after the 1980's droughts. We find significant negative cumNDVI trends near the south-coast of West Africa (Guinea coast) and in Tanzania. For each farming system, causes of change and variability are discussed based on available literature (Appendix A). Although food security comprises more than the local natural resource base, our results can perform an input for food security analysis by identifying zones of high variability or downward trends. Farming systems are found to be a useful level of analysis. Diversity and trends found within farming system boundaries underline that farming systems are dynamic.

Intraseasonal variability in the far-east pacific: investigation of the role of air-sea coupling in a regional coupled model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Small, R.J. [Naval Research Laboratory, Jacobs Technology, Stennis Space Center, MS (United States); University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Center, POST 401, Honolulu, HI (United States); Xie, Shang-Ping [University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Center, POST 401, Honolulu, HI (United States); University of Hawaii, Department of Meteorology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Honolulu, HI (United States); Maloney, Eric D. [Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO (United States); Szoeke, Simon P. de [Oregon State University, College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, OR (United States); Miyama, Toru [Frontier Research for Global Change, Yokohama (Japan)

2011-03-15

Intraseasonal variability in the eastern Pacific warm pool in summer is studied, using a regional ocean-atmosphere model, a linear baroclinic model (LBM), and satellite observations. The atmospheric component of the model is forced by lateral boundary conditions from reanalysis data. The aim is to quantify the importance to atmospheric deep convection of local air-sea coupling. In particular, the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on surface heat fluxes is examined. Intraseasonal (20-90 day) east Pacific warm-pool zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) variability in the regional coupled model are correlated at 0.8 and 0.6 with observations, respectively, significant at the 99% confidence level. The strength of the intraseasonal variability in the coupled model, as measured by the variance of outgoing longwave radiation, is close in magnitude to that observed, but with a maximum located about 10 further west. East Pacific warm pool intraseasonal convection and winds agree in phase with those from observations, suggesting that remote forcing at the boundaries associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation determines the phase of intraseasonal convection in the east Pacific warm pool. When the ocean model component is replaced by weekly reanalysis SST in an atmosphere-only experiment, there is a slight improvement in the location of the highest OLR variance. Further sensitivity experiments with the regional atmosphere-only model in which intraseasonal SST variability is removed indicate that convective variability has only a weak dependence on the SST variability, but a stronger dependence on the climatological mean SST distribution. A scaling analysis confirms that wind speed anomalies give a much larger contribution to the intraseasonal evaporation signal than SST anomalies, in both model and observations. A LBM is used to show that local feedbacks would serve to amplify intraseasonal convection and the large-scale circulation. Further

Multiwavelength Variability Analysis of 3C 279

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Víctor M. Patiño-Álvarez

2017-11-01

Full Text Available We present a multifrequency analysis of the variability in the flat-spectrum radio quasar 3C 279 from 2008 to 2014. Our multiwavelength datasets range from 1 mm to gamma-rays, with additional optical polarimetry. Cross-correlation analysis shows a significant correlation between the UV continuum emission, the optical and NIR bands, at a delay consistent with zero, implying co-spatial emission regions. We also find a correlation between the UV continuum and the 1 mm data, which implies that the dominant process in producing the UV continuum is synchrotron emission. Based on the behavior of the gamma-ray light curve with respect to other bands, we identified three different activity periods. During period A we find a significant correlation at zero delay between the UV continuum and the gamma-rays, implying co-spatial emission regions which points toward synchrotron self-Compton as dominant gamma-ray emission mechanism. During period C we find a delay between the UV continuum and the gamma-rays, as well as a correlation at zero delay between X-rays and gamma-rays, both results implying that external inverse Compton is the dominant gamma-ray emission mechanism. During period B there are multiple flares in the bands from 1 mm to UV, however, none of these show a counterpart in the gamma-rays band. We propose that this is caused by an increase in the gamma-ray opacity due to electron-positron pair production.

Multiwavelength Variability Analysis of 3C 279

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patiño-Álvarez, Víctor M. [Max-Planck-Institut für Radioastronomie, Bonn (Germany); Fernandes, Sunil [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX (United States); Chavushyan, Vahram [Instituto Nacional de Astrofísica Óptica y Electrónica, Puebla (Mexico); López-Rodríguez, Erique [SOFIA Science Center, NASA Ames Center, Mountain View, CA (United States); León-Tavares, Jonathan [Centre for Remote Sensing and Earth Observation Processes (TAP), Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Mol (Belgium); Schlegel, Eric M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX (United States); Carrasco, Luis; Valdés, José R.; Carramiñana, Alberto, E-mail: patinoavm@mpifr-bonn.mpg.de [Instituto Nacional de Astrofísica Óptica y Electrónica, Puebla (Mexico)

2017-11-23

We present a multifrequency analysis of the variability in the flat-spectrum radio quasar 3C 279 from 2008 to 2014. Our multiwavelength datasets range from 1 mm to gamma-rays, with additional optical polarimetry. Cross-correlation analysis shows a significant correlation between the UV continuum emission, the optical and NIR bands, at a delay consistent with zero, implying co-spatial emission regions. We also find a correlation between the UV continuum and the 1 mm data, which implies that the dominant process in producing the UV continuum is synchrotron emission. Based on the behavior of the gamma-ray light curve with respect to other bands, we identified three different activity periods. During period A we find a significant correlation at zero delay between the UV continuum and the gamma-rays, implying co-spatial emission regions which points toward synchrotron self-Compton as dominant gamma-ray emission mechanism. During period C we find a delay between the UV continuum and the gamma-rays, as well as a correlation at zero delay between X-rays and gamma-rays, both results implying that external inverse Compton is the dominant gamma-ray emission mechanism. During period B there are multiple flares in the bands from 1 mm to UV, however, none of these show a counterpart in the gamma-rays band. We propose that this is caused by an increase in the gamma-ray opacity due to electron-positron pair production.

Regional energy facility siting analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eberhart, R.C.; Eagles, T.W.

1976-01-01

Results of the energy facility siting analysis portion of a regional pilot study performed for the anticipated National Energy Siting and Facility Report are presented. The question of cell analysis versus site-specific analysis is explored, including an evaluation of the difference in depth between the two approaches. A discussion of the possible accomplishments of regional analysis is presented. It is concluded that regional sitting analysis could be of use in a national siting study, if its inherent limits are recognized

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

Science.gov (United States)

Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

2016-01-01

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in the Tocantins-Araguaia hydrographic region

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Glauber Epifanio Loureiro

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Current paper examines the space-time dynamics of yearly rainfall of the Tocantins-Araguaia Hydrographic Region (TAHR, foregrounded on rainfall volume from isohyet maps and interpolated by Kriging geo-statistical method.  Rainfall space dynamics was undertaken by the analysis of descriptive statistics, Index of Meteorological Irregularity (IMI and Variation Coefficient. Temporal dynamics was analyzed through the distribution of total annual volume precipitation for each TAHR sub-basin by the Standardized Anomaly Index, trend and magnitude test provided by Mann-Kendall and Sen Tests. Results correlated with meteorological anomalies of the Atlantic (Dipole and Pacific (ENOS Oceans show a highly heterogeneous rainfall behavior with temporal variability. Or rather, a decrease of rainfall extensiveness during years of intense meteorological anomaly with a rainfall increase south of the High Tocantins and Araguaia sub-basins and a decrease of rainfall in the Lower Tocantins sub-basin, with El Niño features. Although the Mann-Kendall test does not show statistically a significant trend for rainfall in the TAHR region, Sen’s estimator reveals a decrease in rainfall in the High Tocantins (-1.24 km³ year-1 and Araguaia (-1.13 km³ year-1 sub-basins and a rainfall increase in the Lower Tocantins sub-basin (0.53 km³ year-1 and in the TAHR region (-1.5 km³ year-1.

Interannual Variability of Regional Hadley Circulation Intensity Over Western Pacific During Boreal Winter and Its Climatic Impact Over Asia-Australia Region

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Ruping; Chen, Shangfeng; Chen, Wen; Hu, Peng

2018-01-01

This study investigates interannual variability of boreal winter regional Hadley circulation over western Pacific (WPHC) and its climatic impacts. A WPHC intensity index (WPHCI) is defined as the vertical shear of the divergent meridional winds. It shows that WPHCI correlates well with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To investigate roles of the ENSO-unrelated part of WPHCI (WPHCIres), variables that are linearly related to the Niño-3 index have been removed. It reveals that meridional sea surface temperature gradient over the western Pacific plays an essential role in modulating the WPHCIres. The climatic impacts of WPHCIres are further investigated. Below-normal (above-normal) precipitation appears over south China (North Australia) when WPHCIres is stronger. This is due to the marked convergence (divergence) anomalies at the upper troposphere, divergence (convergence) at the lower troposphere, and the accompanied downward (upward) motion over south China (North Australia), which suppresses (enhances) precipitation there. In addition, a pronounced increase in surface air temperature (SAT) appears over south and central China when WPHCIres is stronger. A temperature diagnostic analysis suggests that the increase in SAT tendency over central China is primarily due to the warm zonal temperature advection and subsidence-induced adiabatic heating. In addition, the increase in SAT tendency over south China is primarily contributed by the warm meridional temperature advection. Further analysis shows that the correlation of WPHCIres with the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is weak. Thus, this study may provide additional sources besides EAWM and ENSO to improve understanding of the Asia-Australia climate variability.

Two centuries of observed atmospheric variability and change over the North Sea region

Science.gov (United States)

Stendel, Martin; van den Besselaar, Else; Hannachi, Abdel; Kent, Elizabeth; Lefebvre, Christiana; Rosenhagen, Gudrun; Schenk, Frederik; van der Schrier, Gerard; Woollings, Tim

2016-04-01

In the upcoming North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), we present a synthesis of current knowledge about past, present and possible future climate change in the North Sea region. A climate change assessment from published scientific work has been conducted as a kind of regional IPCC report, and a book has been produced that will be published by Springer in 2016. In the framework of the NOSCCA project, we examine past and present studies of variability and changes in atmospheric variables within the North Sea region over the instrumental period, roughly the past 200 years, based on observations and reanalyses. The variables addressed in this presentation are large-scale circulation, pressure and wind, surface air temperature, precipitation and radiative properties (clouds, solar radiation, and sunshine duration). While air temperature over land, not unexpectedly, has increased everywhere in the North Sea region, with strongest trends in spring and in the north of the region, a precipitation increase has been observed in the north and a decrease in the south of the region. This pattern goes along with a north-eastward shift of storm tracks and is in agreement with climate model projections under enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations. For other variables, it is not obvious which part of the observed changes may be due to anthropogenic activities and which is internally forced. It remains also unclear to what extent atmospheric circulation over the North Sea region is influenced by distant factors, in particular Arctic sea-ice decline in recent decades. There are indications of an increase in the number of deep cyclones (but not in the total number of cyclones), while storminess since the late 19th century shows no robust trends. The persistence of circulation types appears to have increased over the last century, and consequently, there is an indication for 'more extreme' extreme events. However, changes in extreme weather events are difficult to assess

Effects of Recent Regional Soil Moisture Variability on Global Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, L. A.; Madani, N.; Kimball, J. S.; Reichle, R. H.; Colliander, A.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture exerts a major regional control on the inter-annual variability of the global land sink for atmospheric CO2. In semi-arid regions, annual biomass production is closely coupled to variability in soil moisture availability, while in cold-season-affected regions, summer drought offsets the effects of advancing spring phenology. Availability of satellite solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) observations and improvements in atmospheric inversions has led to unprecedented ability to monitor atmospheric sink strength. However, discrepancies still exist between such top-down estimates as atmospheric inversion and bottom-up process and satellite driven models, indicating that relative strength, mechanisms, and interaction of driving factors remain poorly understood. We use soil moisture fields informed by Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission (SMAP) observations to compare recent (2015-2017) and historic (2000-2014) variability in net ecosystem land-atmosphere CO2 exchange (NEE). The operational SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4C) product relates ground-based flux tower measurements to other bottom-up and global top-down estimates to underlying soil moisture and other driving conditions using data-assimilation-based SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4SM). Droughts in coastal Brazil, South Africa, Eastern Africa, and an anomalous wet period in Eastern Australia were observed by L4C. A seasonal seesaw pattern of below-normal sink strength at high latitudes relative to slightly above-normal sink strength for mid-latitudes was also observed. Whereas SMAP-based soil moisture is relatively informative for short-term temporal variability, soil moisture biases that vary in space and with season constrain the ability of the L4C estimates to accurately resolve NEE. Such biases might be caused by irrigation and plant-accessible ground-water. Nevertheless, SMAP L4C daily NEE estimates connect top-down estimates to variability of effective driving factors for accurate estimates of regional

Geostatistical Analysis of Mesoscale Spatial Variability and Error in SeaWiFS and MODIS/Aqua Global Ocean Color Data

Science.gov (United States)

Glover, David M.; Doney, Scott C.; Oestreich, William K.; Tullo, Alisdair W.

2018-01-01

Mesoscale (10-300 km, weeks to months) physical variability strongly modulates the structure and dynamics of planktonic marine ecosystems via both turbulent advection and environmental impacts upon biological rates. Using structure function analysis (geostatistics), we quantify the mesoscale biological signals within global 13 year SeaWiFS (1998-2010) and 8 year MODIS/Aqua (2003-2010) chlorophyll a ocean color data (Level-3, 9 km resolution). We present geographical distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of key geostatistical parameters: unresolved variability or noise, resolved variability, and spatial range. Resolved variability is nearly identical for both instruments, indicating that geostatistical techniques isolate a robust measure of biophysical mesoscale variability largely independent of measurement platform. In contrast, unresolved variability in MODIS/Aqua is substantially lower than in SeaWiFS, especially in oligotrophic waters where previous analysis identified a problem for the SeaWiFS instrument likely due to sensor noise characteristics. Both records exhibit a statistically significant relationship between resolved mesoscale variability and the low-pass filtered chlorophyll field horizontal gradient magnitude, consistent with physical stirring acting on large-scale gradient as an important factor supporting observed mesoscale variability. Comparable horizontal length scales for variability are found from tracer-based scaling arguments and geostatistical decorrelation. Regional variations between these length scales may reflect scale dependence of biological mechanisms that also create variability directly at the mesoscale, for example, enhanced net phytoplankton growth in coastal and frontal upwelling and convective mixing regions. Global estimates of mesoscale biophysical variability provide an improved basis for evaluating higher resolution, coupled ecosystem-ocean general circulation models, and data assimilation.

YSOVAR: Mid-infrared variability in the star-forming region Lynds 1688

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Günther, H. M.; Poppenhaeger, K.; Wolk, S. J.; Hora, J. L. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Cody, A. M. [Spitzer Science Center, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Covey, K. R. [Lowell Observatory, 1400 West Mars Hill Road, Flagstaff, AZ 86001 (United States); Hillenbrand, L. A. [Department of Astronomy, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Plavchan, P. [NASA Exoplanet Science Institute, California Institute of Technology, 770 South Wilson Avenue, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Rebull, L. M.; Stauffer, J. R. [Spitzer Science Center/Caltech, 1200 East California Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Allen, L. [National Optical Astronomy Observatories, Tucson, AZ 85719 (United States); Bayo, A. [Max Planck Institut für Astronomie, Königstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Gutermuth, R. A. [Department of Astronomy, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003 (United States); Meng, H. Y. A. [Infrared Processing and Analysis Center, California Institute of Technology, MC 100-22, 770 South Wilson Avenue, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Morales-Calderón, M. [Centro de Astrobiología (INTA-CSIC), ESAC Campus, P.O. Box 78, E-28691 Villanueva de la Canada (Spain); Parks, J. R. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Georgia State University, 25 Park Place South, Atlanta, GA 30303 (United States); Song, Inseok, E-mail: hguenther@cfa.harvard.edu [Physics and Astronomy Department, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602-2451 (United States)

2014-12-01

The emission from young stellar objects (YSOs) in the mid-infrared (mid-IR) is dominated by the inner rim of their circumstellar disks. We present IR data from the Young Stellar Object VARiability (YSOVAR) survey of ∼800 objects in the direction of the Lynds 1688 (L1688) star-forming region over four visibility windows spanning 1.6 yr using the Spitzer Space Telescope in its warm mission phase. Among all light curves, 57 sources are cluster members identified based on their spectral energy distribution and X-ray emission. Almost all cluster members show significant variability. The amplitude of the variability is larger in more embedded YSOs. Ten out of 57 cluster members have periodic variations in the light curves with periods typically between three and seven days, but even for those sources, significant variability in addition to the periodic signal can be seen. No period is stable over 1.6 yr. Nonperiodic light curves often still show a preferred timescale of variability that is longer for more embedded sources. About half of all sources exhibit redder colors in a fainter state. This is compatible with time-variable absorption toward the YSO. The other half becomes bluer when fainter. These colors can only be explained with significant changes in the structure of the inner disk. No relation between mid-IR variability and stellar effective temperature or X-ray spectrum is found.

Comparing the potential for identification of lactobacillus spp. of 16s rDNA variable regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riano Pachon, Diego Mauricio; Vanegas Lopez, Maria Consuelo; Gonzalez Garcia, Laura Natalia

2013-01-01

16s rDNA is used for bacterial identification because its variation rate between species allows differentiation. The gene for this ribosomal subunit has 9 variable regions and some of them give more information than others. We were interested in evaluating the potential for species identification of each region and their combinations. We extracted the V1 to V8 regions of 16s rDNA from different strains and species of Lactobacillus and analyzed them using STAP (ss-RNA Taxonomy Assigning Pipeline) and RDP (Ribosomal Database Project) multiclassifier packages. Phylogenetic trees obtained by maximum likelihood analyses were compared. Classification results show that many regions give the correct genus classification using RDP and STAP; however they are not enough to classify up to the level of species. V5V6 region presents the highest quantity of informative fragments but also present the highest rate of false negatives. V1V3 region presents the highest rate of true positives (species) using STAP and the region V5V8 in RDP (genus).The phylogenetic result shows that the reference topology could be obtained using different combination of regions as V1V3 and V1V8.The experimental validation was done using commercial strains from a probiotic tampon. Sequencing analysis show that the V1V3 region gives the same information and result as the complete 16s rDNA; the three isolated strains correspond to the strains indicated in the product. We conclude that the V1V3 region is the minimum required region to classify Lactobacillus spp. in the correct way and this region is useful in metagenomics to analyze probiotics samples.

A systematic intercomparison of regional flood frequency analysis models in a simulation framework

Science.gov (United States)

Ganora, Daniele; Laio, Francesco; Claps, Pierluigi

2015-04-01

Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve (or other discharge-related variables), based on the fundamental concept of substituting temporal information at a site (no data or short time series) by exploiting observations at other sites (spatial information). Different RFA paradigms exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest. Despite the wide use of such methodology, a systematic comparison between these paradigms has not been performed. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison: we thus synthetically generate data through Monte Carlo simulations for a number of (virtual) stations, following a GEV parent distribution; different scenarios can be created to represent different spatial heterogeneity patterns by manipulating the parameters of the parent distribution at each station (e.g. with a linear variation in space of the shape parameter of the GEV). A special case is the homogeneous scenario where each station record is sampled from the same parent distribution. For each scenario and each simulation, different regional models are applied to evaluate the 200-year growth factor at each station. Results are than compared to the exact growth factor of each station, which is known in our virtual world. Considered regional approaches include: (i) a single growth curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model based on cluster analysis which search for an adequate number of homogeneous subregions; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially-smooth estimation procedure based on linear regressions.. A further benchmark model is the at-site estimate based on the analysis of the local record. A comprehensive analysis of the results of the simulations shows that, if the scenario is homogeneous (no spatial variability), all the regional approaches

Changes of regional climate variability in central Europe during the past 250 years

Science.gov (United States)

Böhm, R.

2012-05-01

The paper uses the data potential of very long and homogenized instrumental climate time series in the south central Europe for analyzing one feature which is very dominant in the climate change debate --whether anthropogenic climate warming causes or goes along with an increase of climate extremes. The monthly resolved data of the HISTALP data collection provide 58 single series for the three climate elements, air pressure, air temperature and precipitation, that start earlier than 1831 and extend back to 1760 in some cases. Trends and long-term low frequent climate evolution is only shortly touched in the paper. The main goal is the analysis of trends or changes of high frequent interannual and interseasonal variability. In other words, it is features like extremely hot summers, very cold winters, excessively dry or wet seasons which the study aims at. The methods used are based on detrended highpass series whose variance is analyzed in discrete 30-year windows moving over the entire instrumental period. The analysis of discrete subintervals relies on the unique number of 8 (for precipitation 7) such "normal periods". The second approach is based on the same subintervals though not in fixed but moving windows over the entire instrumental period. The first result of the study is the clear evidence that there has been no increase of variability during the past 250 years in the region. The second finding is similar but concentrates on the recent three decades which are of particular interest because they are the first 30 years with dominating anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. We can show that also this recent anthropogenic normal period shows no widening of the PDF (probability density function) compared to the preceding ones. The third finding is based on the moving window technique. It shows that interannual variability changes show a clear centennial oscillating structure for all three climate elements in the region. For the time being we have no explanation

The Tokar Gap Jet: Regional Circulation, Diurnal Variability, and Moisture Transport Based on Numerical Simulations

KAUST Repository

Davis, Shannon R.; Pratt, Lawrence J.; Jiang, Houshuo

2015-01-01

The structure, variability, and regional connectivity of the Tokar Gap jet (TGJ) are described using WRF Model analyses and supporting atmospheric datasets from the East African–Red Sea–Arabian Peninsula (EARSAP) region during summer 2008. Sources

Attribution analysis of runoff decline in a semiarid region of the Loess Plateau, China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Binquan; Liang, Zhongmin; Zhang, Jianyun; Wang, Guoqing; Zhao, Weimin; Zhang, Hongyue; Wang, Jun; Hu, Yiming

2018-01-01

Climate variability and human activities are two main contributing attributions for runoff changes in the Yellow River, China. In the loess hilly-gully regions of the middle Yellow River, water shortage has been a serious problem, and this results in large-scale constructions of soil and water conservation (SWC) measures in the past decades in order to retain water for agricultural irrigation and industrial production. This disturbed the natural runoff characteristics. In this paper, we focused on a typical loess hilly-gully region (Wudinghe and Luhe River basins) and investigated the effects of SWC measures and climate variability on runoff during the period of 1961-2013, while the SWC measures were the main representative of human activities in this region. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze the changes of annual precipitation, air temperature, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and runoff. The analysis revealed the decrease in precipitation, significant rise in temperature, and remarkable runoff reduction with a rate of more than 0.4 mm per year. It was found that runoff capacity in this region also decreased. Using the change point detection methods, the abrupt change point of annual runoff series was found at 1970, and thus, the study period was divided into the baseline period (1961-1970) and changed period (1971-2013). A conceptual framework based on four statistical runoff methods was used for attribution analysis of runoff decline in the Wudinghe and Luhe River basins (-37.3 and -56.4%, respectively). Results showed that runoff reduction can be explained by 85.2-90.3% (83.3-85.7%) with the SWC measures in the Wudinghe (Luhe) River basin while the remaining proportions were caused by climate variability. The findings suggested that the large-scale SWC measures demonstrated a dominant influence on runoff decline, and the change of precipitation extreme was also a promoting factor of the upward trending of SWC measures' contribution to

Characterization of the Deep Water Surface Wave Variability in the California Current Region

Science.gov (United States)

Villas Bôas, Ana B.; Gille, Sarah T.; Mazloff, Matthew R.; Cornuelle, Bruce D.

2017-11-01

Surface waves are crucial for the dynamics of the upper ocean not only because they mediate exchanges of momentum, heat, energy, and gases between the ocean and the atmosphere, but also because they determine the sea state. The surface wave field in a given region is set by the combination of local and remote forcing. The present work characterizes the seasonal variability of the deep water surface wave field in the California Current region, as retrieved from over two decades of satellite altimetry data combined with wave buoys and wave model hindcast (WaveWatch III). In particular, the extent to which the local wind modulates the variability of the significant wave height, peak period, and peak direction is assessed. During spring/summer, regional-scale wind events of up to 10 m/s are the dominant forcing for waves off the California coast, leading to relatively short-period waves (8-10 s) that come predominantly from the north-northwest. The wave climatology throughout the California Current region shows average significant wave heights exceeding 2 m during most of the year, which may have implications for the planning and retrieval methods of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission.

Variability and change of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific region during the altimetry era

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Quran; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Hu, Jianyu

2017-03-01

Previous studies have shown that regional sea level exhibits interannual and decadal variations associated with the modes of climate variability. A better understanding of those low-frequency sea level variations benefits the detection and attribution of climate change signals. Nonetheless, the contributions of thermosteric, halosteric, and mass sea level components to sea level variability and trend patterns remain unclear. By focusing on signals associated with dominant climate modes in the Indo-Pacific region, we estimate the interannual and decadal fingerprints and trend of each sea level component utilizing a multivariate linear regression of two adjoint-based ocean reanalyses. Sea level interannual, decadal, and trend patterns primarily come from thermosteric sea level (TSSL). Halosteric sea level (HSSL) is of regional importance in the Pacific Ocean on decadal time scale and dominates sea level trends in the northeast subtropical Pacific. The compensation between TSSL and HSSL is identified in their decadal variability and trends. The interannual and decadal variability of temperature generally peak at subsurface around 100 m but that of salinity tend to be surface-intensified. Decadal temperature and salinity signals extend deeper into the ocean in some regions than their interannual equivalents. Mass sea level (MassSL) is critical for the interannual and decadal variability of sea level over shelf seas. Inconsistencies exist in MassSL trend patterns among various estimates. This study highlights regions where multiple processes work together to control sea level variability and change. Further work is required to better understand the interaction of different processes in those regions.

Optical photometric variable stars towards the Galactic H II region NGC 2282

Science.gov (United States)

Dutta, Somnath; Mondal, Soumen; Joshi, Santosh; Jose, Jessy; Das, Ramkrishna; Ghosh, Supriyo

2018-05-01

We report here CCD I-band time series photometry of a young (2-5 Myr) cluster NGC 2282, in order to identify and understand the variability of pre-main-sequence (PMS) stars. The I-band photometry, down to ˜20.5 mag, enables us to probe the variability towards the lower mass end (˜0.1 M⊙) of PMS stars. From the light curves of 1627 stars, we identified 62 new photometric variable candidates. Their association with the region was established from H α emission and infrared (IR) excess. Among 62 variables, 30 young variables exhibit H α emission, near-IR (NIR)/mid-IR (MIR) excess or both and are candidate members of the cluster. Out of 62 variables, 41 are periodic variables, with a rotation rate ranging from 0.2-7 d. The period distribution exhibits a median period at ˜1 d, as in many young clusters (e.g. NGC 2264, ONC, etc.), but it follows a unimodal distribution, unlike others that have bimodality, with slow rotators peaking at ˜6-8 d. To investigate the rotation-disc and variability-disc connection, we derived the NIR excess from Δ(I - K) and the MIR excess from Spitzer [3.6]-[4.5] μm data. No conclusive evidence of slow rotation with the presence of discs around stars and fast rotation for discless stars is obtained from our periodic variables. A clear increasing trend of the variability amplitude with IR excess is found for all variables.

MOVES regional level sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

The MOVES Regional Level Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to increase understanding of the operations of the MOVES Model in regional emissions analysis and to highlight the following: : the relative sensitivity of selected MOVES Model input paramet...

DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTIPLE-LOCUS VARIABLE NUMBER OF TANDEM REPEAT ANALYSIS (MLVA FOR HELICOBACTER PYLORI AND ITS APPLICATION TO HELICOBACTER PYLORI ISOLATES FROM ROSTOV REGION,RUSSIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sorokin VM

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Stomach infection with Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori is the second most common infectious disease of humans. The severe pathological consequences of this infection include gastric and duodenal ulcer disease, the development of gastric mucosal atrophy, gastric carcinoma, and, more rarely, malignant tumors of the lymphoma. H. pylori infections cause very high morbidity and mortality and are of particular concern in developing countries, where H. pylori prevalences as high as 90% have been reported. The population of H. pylori shows a high genomic variability among isolates. And the polymorphism of repeat-units of genomics had participated the important process of evolution. A variety of molecular typing tools have been developed to access genetic relatedness in H. pylori isolates. However, there is still no standard genotyping system of this bacterium. The MLVA (Multi-Locus of Variable number of tandem repeat Analysis method is useful for performing phylogenetic analysis and is widely used in bacteria genotyping; however, there's little application in H. pylori analysis. This article is the first application of the MLVA method to investigate H. pylori isolates in Russia. MLVA of 4 VNTR loci with high discrimination power based on 10 candidates were performed on a collection of 22 strains of H. pylori which originated from Rostov region of Russia. This method provides a starting point on which improvements to the method and comparisons to other techniques can be made.

Source, variability, and transformation of nitrate in a regional karst aquifer: Edwards aquifer, central Texas.

Science.gov (United States)

Musgrove, MaryLynn; Opsahl, Stephen P.; Mahler, Barbara J.; Herrington, Chris; Sample, Thomas; Banta, John

2016-01-01

Many karst regions are undergoing rapid population growth and expansion of urban land accompanied by increases in wastewater generation and changing patterns of nitrate (NO3−) loading to surface and groundwater. We investigate variability and sources of NO3− in a regional karst aquifer system, the Edwards aquifer of central Texas. Samples from streams recharging the aquifer, groundwater wells, and springs were collected during 2008–12 from the Barton Springs and San Antonio segments of the Edwards aquifer and analyzed for nitrogen (N) species concentrations and NO3− stable isotopes (δ15N and δ18O). These data were augmented by historical data collected from 1937 to 2007. NO3− concentrations and discharge data indicate that short-term variability (days to months) in groundwater NO3− concentrations in the Barton Springs segment is controlled by occurrence of individual storms and multi-annual wet-dry cycles, whereas the lack of short-term variability in groundwater in the San Antonio segment indicates the dominance of transport along regional flow paths. In both segments, longer-term increases (years to decades) in NO3− concentrations cannot be attributed to hydrologic conditions; rather, isotopic ratios and land-use change indicate that septic systems and land application of treated wastewater might be the source of increased loading of NO3−. These results highlight the vulnerability of karst aquifers to NO3− contamination from urban wastewater. An analysis of N-species loading in recharge and discharge for the Barton Springs segment during 2008–10 indicates an overall mass balance in total N, but recharge contains higher concentrations of organic N and lower concentrations of NO3−than does discharge, consistent with nitrification of organic N within the aquifer and consumption of dissolved oxygen. This study demonstrates that subaqueous nitrification of organic N in the aquifer, as opposed to in soils, might be a previously

Regions of variability for a class of analytic and locally univalent ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

f ′′(0) whenever f varies over the class C(A,B). Keywords. Janowski class; univalent functions; variability regions. 2000 Mathematics Subject Classification. 30C45. 1. Introduction and preliminary results. Let C be the complex plane. We use the following notations for open and closed discs with center c and radius r in the ...

Interannual variability in the extent of wetland-stream connectivity within the Prairie Pothole Region

Science.gov (United States)

Melanie Vanderhoof; Laurie Alexander

2016-01-01

The degree of hydrological connectivity between wetland systems and downstream receiving waters can be expected to influence the volume and variability of stream discharge. The Prairie Pothole Region contains a high density of depressional wetland features, a consequence of glacial retreat. Spatial variability in wetland density, drainage evolution, and precipitation...

Implementation of a Time Series Analysis for the Assessment of the Role of Climate Variability in a Post-Disturbance Savanna System

Science.gov (United States)

Gibbes, C.; Southworth, J.; Waylen, P. R.

2013-05-01

How do climate variability and climate change influence vegetation cover and vegetation change in savannas? A landscape scale investigation of the effect of changes in precipitation on vegetation is undertaken through the employment of a time series analysis. The multi-national study region is located within the Kavango-Zambezi region, and is delineated by the Okavango, Kwando, and Zambezi watersheds. A mean-variance time-series analysis quantifies vegetation dynamics and characterizes vegetation response to climate. The spatially explicit approach used to quantify the persistence of vegetation productivity permits the extraction of information regarding long term climate-landscape dynamics. Results show a pattern of reduced mean annual precipitation and increased precipitation variability across key social and ecological areas within the study region. Despite decreased mean annual precipitation since the mid to late 1970's vegetation trends predominantly indicate increasing biomass. The limited areas which have diminished vegetative cover relate to specific vegetation types, and are associated with declines in precipitation variability. Results indicate that in addition to short term changes in vegetation cover, long term trends in productive biomass are apparent, relate to spatial differences in precipitation variability, and potentially represent shifts vegetation composition. This work highlights the importance of time-series analyses for examining climate-vegetation linkages in a spatially explicit manner within a highly vulnerable region of the world.

A Study on Regional Frequency Analysis using Artificial Neural Network - the Sumjin River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Jeong, C.; Ahn, J.; Ahn, H.; Heo, J. H.

2017-12-01

Regional frequency analysis means to make up for shortcomings in the at-site frequency analysis which is about a lack of sample size through the regional concept. Regional rainfall quantile depends on the identification of hydrologically homogeneous regions, hence the regional classification based on hydrological homogeneous assumption is very important. For regional clustering about rainfall, multidimensional variables and factors related geographical features and meteorological figure are considered such as mean annual precipitation, number of days with precipitation in a year and average maximum daily precipitation in a month. Self-Organizing Feature Map method which is one of the artificial neural network algorithm in the unsupervised learning techniques solves N-dimensional and nonlinear problems and be shown results simply as a data visualization technique. In this study, for the Sumjin river basin in South Korea, cluster analysis was performed based on SOM method using high-dimensional geographical features and meteorological factor as input data. then, for the results, in order to evaluate the homogeneity of regions, the L-moment based discordancy and heterogeneity measures were used. Rainfall quantiles were estimated as the index flood method which is one of regional rainfall frequency analysis. Clustering analysis using SOM method and the consequential variation in rainfall quantile were analyzed. This research was supported by a grant(2017-MPSS31-001) from Supporting Technology Development Program for Disaster Management funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security(MPSS) of the Korean government.

Using a predictive model to evaluate spatiotemporal variability in streamflow permanence across the Pacific Northwest region

Science.gov (United States)

Jaeger, K. L.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability Of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS-based empirical model that provides predictions of the annual probability of a stream channel having year-round flow (Streamflow permanence probability; SPP) for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, western Montana). The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions, and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Prediction locations correspond to the channel network consistent with the National Hydrography Dataset stream grid and are publicly available through the USGS StreamStats platform (https://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/). In snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative predictor variable was mean upstream snow water equivalent on May 1, which highlights the influence of late spring snow cover for supporting streamflow in mountain river networks. In non-snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative variable was mean annual precipitation. Streamflow permanence probabilities varied across the study area by geography and from year-to-year. Notably lower SPP corresponded to the climatically drier subregions of the study area. Higher SPP were concentrated in coastal and higher elevation mountain regions. In addition, SPP appeared to trend with average hydroclimatic conditions, which were also geographically coherent. The year-to-year variability lends support for the growing recognition of the spatiotemporal dynamism of streamflow permanence. An analysis of three focus basins located in contrasting geographical and hydroclimatic settings demonstrates differences in the sensitivity of streamflow permanence to antecedent climate conditions as a function of geography. Consequently, results suggest that PROSPER model can be a useful tool to evaluate regions of the

Prevalence and variability of use of home mechanical ventilators, positive airway pressure and oxygen devices in the Lombardy region, Italy.

Science.gov (United States)

Vitacca, Michele; Barbano, Luca; Colombo, Daniele; Leoni, Olivia; Guffanti, Enrico

2018-01-29

Few studies have analyzed the prevalence and accessibility of home mechanical ventilation (HMV) in Italy. We aimed to investigate the prevalence and prescription variability of HMV as well as of long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT) and continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), in the Lombardy Region. Prescribing rates of HMV (both noninvasive and tracheostomies), CPAP (auto-CPAP, CPAP/other sleep machines) and LTOT (liquid-O2, O2-gas, concentrators) in the 15 Local Healthcare districts of Lombardy were gathered from billing data for 2012 and compared. Crude rates (per 100,000 population) and rates for the different healthcare districts were calculated. In 2012, 6325 patients were on HMV (crude prescription rate: 63/100,000) with a high variation across districts (8/100,000 in Milano 1 vs 150/100,000 in Pavia). There were 14,237 patients on CPAP (crude prescription rate: 142/100,000; CPAP/other sleep machines 95.3% vs auto-CPAP 4.7%) with also high intra-regional variation (56/100,000 in Mantova vs. 260/100,000 in Pavia). There were 21,826 patients on LTOT (prescription rate: 217/100,000 rate; liquid-O2 94%, O2-gas 2.08%, O2-concentrators 3.8%), with again high intra-regional variation (100/100,000 in Bergamo vs 410/100,000 in Valle Camonica). The crude rate of HMV prescriptions in Lombardy is very high, with a high intra-regional variability in prescribing HMV, LTOT and CPAP which is partly explainable by the accessibility to specialist centers with HMV/sleep-study facilities. Analysis of administrative data and variability mapping can help identify areas of reduced access for an improved standardization of services. An audit among Health Payer and prescribers to interpret the described huge variability could be welcomed.

An improved and explicit surrogate variable analysis procedure by coefficient adjustment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Seunggeun; Sun, Wei; Wright, Fred A; Zou, Fei

2017-06-01

Unobserved environmental, demographic, and technical factors can negatively affect the estimation and testing of the effects of primary variables. Surrogate variable analysis, proposed to tackle this problem, has been widely used in genomic studies. To estimate hidden factors that are correlated with the primary variables, surrogate variable analysis performs principal component analysis either on a subset of features or on all features, but weighting each differently. However, existing approaches may fail to identify hidden factors that are strongly correlated with the primary variables, and the extra step of feature selection and weight calculation makes the theoretical investigation of surrogate variable analysis challenging. In this paper, we propose an improved surrogate variable analysis using all measured features that has a natural connection with restricted least squares, which allows us to study its theoretical properties. Simulation studies and real data analysis show that the method is competitive to state-of-the-art methods.

Power calculator for instrumental variable analysis in pharmacoepidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Venexia M; Davies, Neil M; Windmeijer, Frank; Burgess, Stephen; Martin, Richard M

2017-10-01

Instrumental variable analysis, for example with physicians' prescribing preferences as an instrument for medications issued in primary care, is an increasingly popular method in the field of pharmacoepidemiology. Existing power calculators for studies using instrumental variable analysis, such as Mendelian randomization power calculators, do not allow for the structure of research questions in this field. This is because the analysis in pharmacoepidemiology will typically have stronger instruments and detect larger causal effects than in other fields. Consequently, there is a need for dedicated power calculators for pharmacoepidemiological research. The formula for calculating the power of a study using instrumental variable analysis in the context of pharmacoepidemiology is derived before being validated by a simulation study. The formula is applicable for studies using a single binary instrument to analyse the causal effect of a binary exposure on a continuous outcome. An online calculator, as well as packages in both R and Stata, are provided for the implementation of the formula by others. The statistical power of instrumental variable analysis in pharmacoepidemiological studies to detect a clinically meaningful treatment effect is an important consideration. Research questions in this field have distinct structures that must be accounted for when calculating power. The formula presented differs from existing instrumental variable power formulae due to its parametrization, which is designed specifically for ease of use by pharmacoepidemiologists. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

The Tokar Gap Jet: Regional Circulation, Diurnal Variability, and Moisture Transport Based on Numerical Simulations

KAUST Repository

Davis, Shannon R.

2015-05-14

The structure, variability, and regional connectivity of the Tokar Gap jet (TGJ) are described using WRF Model analyses and supporting atmospheric datasets from the East African–Red Sea–Arabian Peninsula (EARSAP) region during summer 2008. Sources of the TGJ’s unique quasi-diurnal nature and association with atypically high atmospheric moisture transport are traced back to larger-scale atmospheric dynamics influencing its forcing. These include seasonal shifts in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), variability of the monsoon and North African wind regimes, and ties to other orographic flow patterns. Strong modulation of the TGJ by regional processes such as the desert heating cycle, wind convergence at the ITCZ surface front, and the local land–sea breeze cycle are described. Two case studies present the interplay of these influences in detail. The first of these was an “extreme” gap wind event on 12 July, in which horizontal velocities in the Tokar Gap exceeded 26 m s−1 and the flow from the jet extended the full width of the Red Sea basin. This event coincided with development of a large mesoscale convective complex (MCC) and precipitation at the entrance of the Tokar Gap as well as smaller gaps downstream along the Arabian Peninsula. More typical behavior of the TGJ during the 2008 summer is discussed using a second case study on 19 July. Downwind impact of the TGJ is evaluated using Lagrangian model trajectories and analysis of the lateral moisture fluxes (LMFs) during jet events. These results suggest means by which TGJ contributes to large LMFs and has potential bearing upon Sahelian rainfall and MCC development.

ESA STSE “SST Diurnal Variability: Regional Extend - Implications in Atmospheric Modelling”

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karagali, Ioanna

The diurnal variability of SST, driven by the coincident occurrence of low enough wind and solar heating, has been observed in various regions of the global ocean [4, 5, 6]. Atmospheric, oceanic and climate models are not adequately resolving the daily SST cycle, resulting in biases of the total...

THE ENVIRONMENT OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

OpenAIRE

Bechis Liviu; MOSCVICIOV Andrei

2012-01-01

The paper presents the difference between the two concepts regionalism and regionalization. It also presents the three types of regionalism analysis depending on the dimension and the nature of the relations: regionalism at national level, transnational regionalism and international regionalism analysis.

Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Forest, Chris E. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology; Barsugli, Joseph J. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). CIRES; Li, Wei [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology

2015-02-20

The project utilizes multiple atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to examine the regional climate sensitivity to tropical sea surface temperature forcing through a series of ensemble experiments. The overall goal for this work is to use the global teleconnection operator (GTO) as a metric to assess the impact of model structural differences on the uncertainties in regional climate variability.

The terroir of vineyards - climatic variability in an Austrian wine-growing region

Science.gov (United States)

Gerersdorfer, T.

2010-09-01

The description of a terroir is a concept in viticulture that relates the sensory attributes of wine to the environmental conditions in which the grapes grow. Many factors are involved including climate, soil, cultivar, human practices and all these factors interact manifold. The study area of Carnuntum is a small wine-growing region in the eastern part of Austria. It is rich of Roman remains which play a major role in tourism and the marketing strategies of the wines as well. An interdisciplinary study on the environmental characteristics particularly with regard to growing conditions of grapes was started in this region. The study is concerned with the description of the physiogeographic properties of the region and with the investigation of the dominating viticultural functions. Grape-vines depend on climatic conditions to a high extent. Compared to other influencing factors like soil, climate plays a significant role. In the framework of this interdisciplinary project climatic variability within the Carnuntum wine-growing region is investigated. On the one hand microclimatic variations are influenced by soil type and by canopy management. On the other hand the variability is a result of the topoclimate (altitude, aspect and slope) and therefore relief is a major terroir factor. Results of microclimatic measurements and variations are presented with focus on the interpretation of the relationship between relief, structure of the vineyards and the climatic conditions within the course of a full year period.

Minapolitan region development analysis at Penajam Paser Utara using blue economy concept

Science.gov (United States)

Mawarsari, P. M.; Dewanti, A. N.; Nurrahman, F.

2017-06-01

Penajam Paser Utara (PPU) Region in East Kalimantan was assigned as one of Minapolitan area in Indonesia focusing on aquaculture based on Indonesia Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Decision Number 35 in 2013. Unfortunately, it is shown from PPU region statistics data that decreasing fisheries production in PPU region was occur especially for land fisheries from 2013 until 2015. The aim of this study is to formulate development strategies of Minapolitan in PPU Region by the Blue Economy concept. Several variables such as fisheries and aquaculture aspects, processing and marketing, incomes and workers, also sustainability and economic paradigm is evaluated in this study. Firstly it needs to identify the potential of character and problem by reviewing Minapolitan area in PPU Region with descriptive comparative analysis. Secondly, the fruitfulness of Minapolitan activity in PPU Region impact factors was identified by using internal and external factor (IFAS and EFAS) analysis. Then some of strategic considerations was formulated by using the successful development indicator in Minapolitan area that associate to the Blue Economy concept with SWOT analysis. The result of IFAS analysis show the highest score of strength that is production and commodity productivity. Contrarily, the income level factor is become the highest score at weakness. Then, the EFAS analysis declare that marketing system is the highest factor in opportunity. The position of SWOT quadrant indicate that the Minapolitan area of PPU region is in quadrant I /or first quadrant which means progressive. Therefore, the Minapolitan in PPU have a great chance to increase the cultivation optimally. The results of SWOT matrix is to increase its product and productivity by upgrading the quality and quantity production facilities, raising the control of production activites and also increasing the supervision of processing business with sustainable management business principle.

Spatiotemporal Variability and Covariability of Temperature, Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation in North America for Regional Climate Model Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Castro, C. L.; Beltran-Przekurat, A. B.; Pielke, R. A.

2007-05-01

Previous work has established that the dominant modes of Pacific SSTs influence the summer climate of North America through large-scale forcing, and this effect is most pronounced during the early part of the season. It is hypothesized, then, that land surface influences become more dominant in the latter part of the season as remote teleconnection influences diminish. As a first step toward investigation of this hypothesis in a regional climate model (RCM) framework, the statistically signficant spatiotemporal patterns of variability and covariability in North American precipitation (specified by the standardized precipitation index, or SPI), soil moisture, and vegetation are determined for timescales from a month to six months. To specify these respective data we use: CPC gauge- derived precipitation (1950-2000), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model and NOAH Model NLDAS soil moisture and temperature, and the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GIMMS-NDVI). The principal statistical tool used is multiple taper frequency singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD), and this is supplemented by wavelet analysis for specific areas of interest. The significant interannual variability in all of these data occur at a timescale of about 7 to 9 years and appears to be the integrated effect of remote SST forcing from the Pacific. Considering the entire year, the spatial pattern for precipitation resembles the typical ENSO winter signature. If the summer season is considered seperately, the out of phase relationship between precipitation anomalies in the central U.S. and core monsoon region is apparent. The largest soil moisture anomalies occur in the central U.S., since precipitation in this region has a consistent relationship to Pacific SSTs for the entire year. This helps to explain the approximately 20 year periodicity in drought conditions there. Unlike soil moisture, the largest anomalies in vegetation occur in the

Variable-density ground-water flow and paleohydrology in the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) region, southeastern New Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davies, P.B.

1989-01-01

Variable-density groundwater flow was studied near the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in southeastern New Mexico. An analysis of the relative magnitude of pressure-related and density-related flow-driving forces indicates that density-related gravity effects are not significant at the plant and to the west but are significant in areas to the north, northeast, and south. A regional-scale model of variable-density groundwater flow in the Culebra Dolomite member of the Rustler Formation indicates that the flow velocities are relatively rapid west of the site and extremely slow east and northeast of the site. In the transition zone between those two extremes, which includes the plant, velocities are highly variable. Sensitivity simulations indicates that the central and western parts of the region, including the plant, are fairly well isolated from the eastern and northeastern boundaries. Vertical-flux simulations indicate that as much as 25% of total inflow to the Culebra could be entering as vertical flow, with most of this flow occurring west of the plant. A simple cross-sectional model was developed to examine the flow system as it drains through time following recharge during a past glacial pluvial. This model indicates that the system as a whole drains very slowly and that it apparently could have sustained flow from purely transient drainage following recharge of the system during the Pleistocene

Analysis for SEER of variable speed room air conditioner in China. Paper no. IGEC-1-104

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yitai, M.; Shengchun, L.; Lirong, M.

2005-01-01

In this paper, the calculation method for seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER) given in Standard JRA4046-1999 is analyzed and further modified. Based on temperature zone map of U.S., Japan and China and detailed weather data of eight Chinese cities in last 30 years, regional seasonal energy efficiency ratio (RSEER) and energy saving percentage of variable speed room air conditioner are analyzed and compared with various geographical regions in China. It is concluded that RSEER presents the associated effect of season, climate and geography, and therefore should be taken as an evaluation standard for room air conditioner, especially variable speed room air conditioner. Experimental measurements are conducted in the analysis to investigate the effect of energy efficiency ratio (EER) on the improvement of energy saving percentage and SEER. (author)

Review and classification of variability analysis techniques with clinical applications

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Analysis of patterns of variation of time-series, termed variability analysis, represents a rapidly evolving discipline with increasing applications in different fields of science. In medicine and in particular critical care, efforts have focussed on evaluating the clinical utility of variability. However, the growth and complexity of techniques applicable to this field have made interpretation and understanding of variability more challenging. Our objective is to provide an updated review of variability analysis techniques suitable for clinical applications. We review more than 70 variability techniques, providing for each technique a brief description of the underlying theory and assumptions, together with a summary of clinical applications. We propose a revised classification for the domains of variability techniques, which include statistical, geometric, energetic, informational, and invariant. We discuss the process of calculation, often necessitating a mathematical transform of the time-series. Our aims are to summarize a broad literature, promote a shared vocabulary that would improve the exchange of ideas, and the analyses of the results between different studies. We conclude with challenges for the evolving science of variability analysis. PMID:21985357

Review and classification of variability analysis techniques with clinical applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Bravi, Andrea; Longtin, André; Seely, Andrew J E

2011-10-10

Analysis of patterns of variation of time-series, termed variability analysis, represents a rapidly evolving discipline with increasing applications in different fields of science. In medicine and in particular critical care, efforts have focussed on evaluating the clinical utility of variability. However, the growth and complexity of techniques applicable to this field have made interpretation and understanding of variability more challenging. Our objective is to provide an updated review of variability analysis techniques suitable for clinical applications. We review more than 70 variability techniques, providing for each technique a brief description of the underlying theory and assumptions, together with a summary of clinical applications. We propose a revised classification for the domains of variability techniques, which include statistical, geometric, energetic, informational, and invariant. We discuss the process of calculation, often necessitating a mathematical transform of the time-series. Our aims are to summarize a broad literature, promote a shared vocabulary that would improve the exchange of ideas, and the analyses of the results between different studies. We conclude with challenges for the evolving science of variability analysis.

Internal and external variability in regional simulations of the Iberian Peninsula climate over the last millennium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. J. Gómez-Navarro

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In this study we analyse the role of internal variability in regional climate simulations through a comparison of two regional paleoclimate simulations for the last millennium. They share the same external forcings and model configuration, differing only in the initial condition used to run the driving global model simulation. A comparison of these simulations allows us to study the role of internal variability in climate models at regional scales, and how it affects the long-term evolution of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. The results indicate that, although temperature is homogeneously sensitive to the effect of external forcings, the evolution of precipitation is more strongly governed by random unpredictable internal dynamics. There are, however, some areas where the role of internal variability is lower than expected, allowing precipitation to respond to the external forcings. In this respect, we explore the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for it. This study identifies areas, depending on the season, in which a direct comparison between model simulations of precipitation and climate reconstructions would be meaningful, but also other areas where good agreement between them should not be expected even if both are perfect.

Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alberto Muñoz

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Ecological Niche Models (ENMs are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models. Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles. Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural

Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Xavier; Felicísimo, Ángel M.

2016-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models). Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude) were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species) and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles). Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural parks. PMID

Behavior of variable V3 region from 16S rDNA of lactic acid bacteria in denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ercolini, D; Moschetti, G; Blaiotta, G; Coppola, S

2001-03-01

Separation of amplified V3 region from 16S rDNA by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) was tested as a tool for differentiation of lactic acid bacteria commonly isolated from food. Variable V3 regions of 21 reference strains and 34 wild strains referred to species belonging to the genera Pediococcus, Enterococcus, Lactococcus, Lactobacillus, Leuconostoc, Weissella, and Streptococcus were analyzed. DGGE profiles obtained were species-specific for most of the cultures tested. Moreover, it was possible to group the remaining LAB reference strains according to the migration of their 16S V3 region in the denaturing gel. The results are discussed with reference to their potential in the analysis of LAB communities in food, besides shedding light on taxonomic aspects.

Chlorophyll-a variability in the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge: Analysis of a coupled biophysical model

Science.gov (United States)

Dilmahamod, A. F.; Hermes, J. C.; Reason, C. J. C.

2016-02-01

The biological variability of the upwelling region of the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR), both at surface and subsurface levels, is investigated using monthly outputs of a coupled biophysical model from 1958 to 2011. Owing to its large spatial distribution and sensitivity to climate variability, the SCTR is studied as three distinct regions; namely, sub-regions 1 (western; 5°S-12°S, 55°E-65°E), 2 (central; 5°S-12°S, 65°E-75°E) and 3 (eastern; 5°S-12°S, 75°E-90°E). Surface and subsurface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) exhibit completely different response mechanisms in sub-region 3 compared to sub-regions 1 and 2 during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. During the intense 1997/1998 ENSO-IOD event, the high Chl-a tongue observed in the eastern Indian Ocean induces an increase in surface concentration in sub-region 3, whose subsurface variability is also substantially less (more) impacted by downwelling (upwelling) Rossby waves generated by El Niño (La Niña) forcing. After filtering out the annual signal, wavelet analysis of surface Chl-a revealed a significant 6 month periodicity in sub-regions 1 and 2 whereas a 5-year signal dominated in sub-region 3. The latter suggests that sub-region 3 is more prone to different ENSO/IOD influences, due to its proximity to the eastern Indian Ocean. In the unfiltered data, the subsurface Chl-a in sub-region 3 exhibits a strong signal near 1 year, with sub-regions 1 and 2 having a pronounced 6-year and 5-year signals respectively. These analyses show that the SCTR cannot be investigated as a single homogeneous region due to its large spatial distribution and different response mechanisms to climate events. Furthermore, changes in SST, thermocline depth, winds and Chl-a before and after the 1976-1977 climate shift differed across the SCTR, further highlighting the heterogeneity of this sensitive region in the Indian Ocean.

Superflux chlorophyll-a analysis: An assessment of variability in results introduced prior to fluorometric analysis. [chesapeake bay and shelf regions

Science.gov (United States)

Cibik, S. J.; Rutledge, C. K.; Robertson, C. N.

1981-01-01

Several experiments were undertaken to identify variability in results that came from procedural differences in the processing of chlorophyll samples prior to fluorometric analysis. T-tests on group means indicated that significant differences (alpha = 0.05) in phaeopigment a concentrations did result in samples not initially screened, but not in the chlorophyll a concentrations. Highly significant differences (alpha = 0.001) in group means were found in samples which were held in acetone after filtering as compared to unfiltered seawater samples held for the same period. No difference in results was found between the 24-hour extraction and samples which were processed immediately.

Comparison of seasonal variability in European domestic radon measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Groves-Kirkby, C. J.; Denman, A. R.; Phillips, P. S.; Crockett, R. G. M.; Sinclair, J. M.

2010-03-01

Analysis of published data characterising seasonal variability of domestic radon concentrations in Europe and elsewhere shows significant variability between different countries and between regions where regional data is available. Comparison is facilitated by application of the Gini Coefficient methodology to reported seasonal variation data. Overall, radon-rich sedimentary strata, particularly high-porosity limestones, exhibit high seasonal variation, while radon-rich igneous lithologies demonstrate relatively constant, but somewhat higher, radon concentrations. High-variability regions include the Pennines and South Downs in England, Languedoc and Brittany in France, and especially Switzerland. Low-variability high-radon regions include the granite-rich Cornwall/Devon peninsula in England, and Auvergne and Ardennes in France, all components of the Devonian-Carboniferous Hercynian belt.

Source, variability, and transformation of nitrate in a regional karst aquifer: Edwards aquifer, central Texas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Musgrove, M., E-mail: mmusgrov@usgs.gov [U.S. Geological Survey, 1505 Ferguson Lane, Austin, TX 78754 (United States); Opsahl, S.P. [U.S. Geological Survey, 5563 DeZavala, Ste. 290, San Antonio, TX 78249 (United States); Mahler, B.J. [U.S. Geological Survey, 1505 Ferguson Lane, Austin, TX 78754 (United States); Herrington, C. [City of Austin Watershed Protection Department, Austin, TX 78704 (United States); Sample, T.L. [U.S. Geological Survey, 19241 David Memorial Dr., Ste. 180, Conroe, TX 77385 (United States); Banta, J.R. [U.S. Geological Survey, 5563 DeZavala, Ste. 290, San Antonio, TX 78249 (United States)

2016-10-15

Many karst regions are undergoing rapid population growth and expansion of urban land accompanied by increases in wastewater generation and changing patterns of nitrate (NO{sub 3}{sup −}) loading to surface and groundwater. We investigate variability and sources of NO{sub 3}{sup −} in a regional karst aquifer system, the Edwards aquifer of central Texas. Samples from streams recharging the aquifer, groundwater wells, and springs were collected during 2008–12 from the Barton Springs and San Antonio segments of the Edwards aquifer and analyzed for nitrogen (N) species concentrations and NO{sub 3}{sup −} stable isotopes (δ{sup 15}N and δ{sup 18}O). These data were augmented by historical data collected from 1937 to 2007. NO{sub 3}{sup −} concentrations and discharge data indicate that short-term variability (days to months) in groundwater NO{sub 3}{sup −} concentrations in the Barton Springs segment is controlled by occurrence of individual storms and multi-annual wet-dry cycles, whereas the lack of short-term variability in groundwater in the San Antonio segment indicates the dominance of transport along regional flow paths. In both segments, longer-term increases (years to decades) in NO{sub 3}{sup −} concentrations cannot be attributed to hydrologic conditions; rather, isotopic ratios and land-use change indicate that septic systems and land application of treated wastewater might be the source of increased loading of NO{sub 3}{sup −}. These results highlight the vulnerability of karst aquifers to NO{sub 3}{sup −} contamination from urban wastewater. An analysis of N-species loading in recharge and discharge for the Barton Springs segment during 2008–10 indicates an overall mass balance in total N, but recharge contains higher concentrations of organic N and lower concentrations of NO{sub 3}{sup −} than does discharge, consistent with nitrification of organic N within the aquifer and consumption of dissolved oxygen. This study demonstrates

Source, variability, and transformation of nitrate in a regional karst aquifer: Edwards aquifer, central Texas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Musgrove, M.; Opsahl, S.P.; Mahler, B.J.; Herrington, C.; Sample, T.L.; Banta, J.R.

2016-01-01

Many karst regions are undergoing rapid population growth and expansion of urban land accompanied by increases in wastewater generation and changing patterns of nitrate (NO 3 − ) loading to surface and groundwater. We investigate variability and sources of NO 3 − in a regional karst aquifer system, the Edwards aquifer of central Texas. Samples from streams recharging the aquifer, groundwater wells, and springs were collected during 2008–12 from the Barton Springs and San Antonio segments of the Edwards aquifer and analyzed for nitrogen (N) species concentrations and NO 3 − stable isotopes (δ 15 N and δ 18 O). These data were augmented by historical data collected from 1937 to 2007. NO 3 − concentrations and discharge data indicate that short-term variability (days to months) in groundwater NO 3 − concentrations in the Barton Springs segment is controlled by occurrence of individual storms and multi-annual wet-dry cycles, whereas the lack of short-term variability in groundwater in the San Antonio segment indicates the dominance of transport along regional flow paths. In both segments, longer-term increases (years to decades) in NO 3 − concentrations cannot be attributed to hydrologic conditions; rather, isotopic ratios and land-use change indicate that septic systems and land application of treated wastewater might be the source of increased loading of NO 3 − . These results highlight the vulnerability of karst aquifers to NO 3 − contamination from urban wastewater. An analysis of N-species loading in recharge and discharge for the Barton Springs segment during 2008–10 indicates an overall mass balance in total N, but recharge contains higher concentrations of organic N and lower concentrations of NO 3 − than does discharge, consistent with nitrification of organic N within the aquifer and consumption of dissolved oxygen. This study demonstrates that subaqueous nitrification of organic N in the aquifer, as opposed to in soils, might be a

Aerosol and rainfall variability over the Indian monsoon region: distributions, trends and coupling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Gautam

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Aerosol solar absorption over the Indian monsoon region has a potential role of modulating the monsoon circulation and rainfall distribution as suggested by recent studies based on model simulations. Prior to the onset of the monsoon, northern India is influenced by significant dust transport that constitutes the bulk of the regional aerosol loading over the Gangetic-Himalayan region. In this paper, a multi-sensor characterization of the increasing pre-monsoon aerosol loading over northern India, in terms of their spatial, temporal and vertical distribution is presented. Aerosol transport from the northwestern arid regions into the Indo-Gangetic Plains and over the foothills of the Himalayas is found to be vertically extended to elevated altitudes (up to 5 km as observed from the space-borne lidar measurements (CALIPSO. In relation with the enhanced pre-monsoon aerosol loading and the associated solar absorption effects on tropospheric temperature anomalies, this paper investigates the monsoon rainfall variability over India in recent past decades from an observational viewpoint. It is found that the early summer monsoon rainfall over India is on the rise since 1950s, as indicated by historical rainfall data, with over 20% increase for the period 1950–2004. This large sustained increase in the early summer rainfall is led by the observed strengthening of the pre-monsoon tropospheric land-sea thermal gradient over the Indian monsoon region as indicated by microwave satellite measurements (MSU of tropospheric temperatures from 1979–2007. Combined analysis of changes in tropospheric temperatures and summer monsoon rainfall in the past three decades, suggest a future possibility of an emerging rainfall pattern of a wetter monsoon over South Asia in early summer followed by a drier period.

Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

2017-12-01

Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.

SCOWLP classification: Structural comparison and analysis of protein binding regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anders Gerd

2008-01-01

. The hierarchical classification of PBRs is implemented into the SCOWLP database and extends the SCOP classification with three additional family sub-levels: Binding Region, Interface and Contacting Domains. SCOWLP contains 9,334 binding regions distributed within 2,561 families. In 65% of the cases we observe families containing more than one binding region. Besides, 22% of the regions are forming complex with more than one different protein family. Conclusion The current SCOWLP classification and its web application represent a framework for the study of protein interfaces and comparative analysis of protein family binding regions. This comparison can be performed at atomic level and allows the user to study interactome conservation and variability. The new SCOWLP classification may be of great utility for reconstruction of protein complexes, understanding protein networks and ligand design. SCOWLP will be updated with every SCOP release. The web application is available at http://www.scowlp.org.

Interactive Building Design Space Exploration Using Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Østergård, Torben; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Maagaard, Steffen

2017-01-01

simulation inputs are most important and which have negligible influence on the model output. Popular sensitivity methods include the Morris method, variance-based methods (e.g. Sobol’s), and regression methods (e.g. SRC). However, all these methods only address one output at a time, which makes it difficult...... in combination with the interactive parallel coordinate plot (PCP). The latter is an effective tool to explore stochastic simulations and to find high-performing building designs. The proposed methods help decision makers to focus their attention to the most important design parameters when exploring......Monte Carlo simulations combined with regionalized sensitivity analysis provide the means to explore a vast, multivariate design space in building design. Typically, sensitivity analysis shows how the variability of model output relates to the uncertainties in models inputs. This reveals which...

Regional and landscape-scale variability of Landsat-observed vegetation dynamics in northwest Siberian tundra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frost, Gerald V; Epstein, Howard E; Walker, Donald A

2014-01-01

Widespread increases in Arctic tundra productivity have been documented for decades using coarse-scale satellite observations, but finer-scale observations indicate that changes have been very uneven, with a high degree of landscape- and regional-scale heterogeneity. Here we analyze time-series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observed by Landsat (1984–2012), to assess landscape- and regional-scale variability of tundra vegetation dynamics in the northwest Siberian Low Arctic, a little-studied region with varied soils, landscape histories, and permafrost attributes. We also estimate spatio-temporal rates of land-cover change associated with expansion of tall alder (Alnus) shrublands, by integrating Landsat time-series with very-high-resolution imagery dating to the mid-1960s. We compiled Landsat time-series for eleven widely-distributed landscapes, and performed linear regression of NDVI values on a per-pixel basis. We found positive net NDVI trends (‘greening’) in nine of eleven landscapes. Net greening occurred in alder shrublands in all landscapes, and strong greening tended to correspond to shrublands that developed since the 1960s. Much of the spatial variability of greening within landscapes was linked to landscape physiography and permafrost attributes, while between-landscape variability largely corresponded to differences in surficial geology. We conclude that continued increases in tundra productivity in the region are likely in upland tundra landscapes with fine-textured, cryoturbated soils; these areas currently tend to support discontinuous vegetation cover, but are highly susceptible to rapid increases in vegetation cover, as well as land-cover changes associated with the development of tall shrublands. (paper)

Intra-seasonal and Inter-annual variability of Bowen Ratio over rain-shadow region of North peninsular India

Science.gov (United States)

Morwal, S. B.; Narkhedkar, S. G.; Padmakumari, B.; Maheskumar, R. S.; Deshpande, C. G.; Kulkarni, J. R.

2017-05-01

Intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of Bowen Ratio (BR) have been studied over the rain-shadow region of north peninsular India during summer monsoon season. Daily grid point data of latent heat flux (LHF), sensible heat flux (SHF) from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for the period 1970-2014 have been used to compute daily area-mean BR. Daily grid point rainfall data at a resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° from APHRODITE's Water Resources for the available period 1970-2007 have been used to study the association between rainfall and BR. The study revealed that BR rapidly decreases from 4.1 to 0.29 in the month of June and then remains nearly constant at the same value (≤0.1) in the rest of the season. High values of BR in the first half of June are indicative of intense thermals and convective clouds with higher bases. Low values of BR from July to September period are indicative of weak thermals and convective clouds with lower bases. Intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of BR is found to be inversely related to precipitation over the region. BR analysis indicates that the land surface characteristics of the study region during July-September are similar to that over oceanic regions as far as intensity of thermals and associated cloud microphysical properties are concerned. Similar variation of BR is found in El Nino and La Nina years. During June, an increasing trend is observed in SHF and BR and decreasing trend in LHF from 1976 to 2014. Increasing trend in the SHF is statistically significant.

Cytogenomic Integrative Network Analysis of the Critical Region Associated with Wolf-Hirschhorn Syndrome

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Thiago Corrêa

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Deletions in the 4p16.3 region are associated with Wolf-Hirschhorn syndrome (WHS, a contiguous gene deletion syndrome involving variable size deletions. In this study, we perform a cytogenomic integrative analysis combining classical cytogenetic methods, fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH, chromosomal microarray analysis (CMA, and systems biology strategies, to establish the cytogenomic profile involving the 4p16.3 critical region and suggest WHS-related intracellular cell signaling cascades. The cytogenetic and clinical patient profiles were evaluated. We characterized 12 terminal deletions, one interstitial deletion, two ring chromosomes, and one classical translocation 4;8. CMA allowed delineation of the deletions, which ranged from 3.7 to 25.6 Mb with breakpoints from 4p16.3 to 4p15.33. Furthermore, the smallest region of overlapping (SRO encompassed seven genes in a terminal region of 330 kb in the 4p16.3 region, suggesting a region of susceptibility to convulsions and microcephaly. Therefore, molecular interaction networks and topological analysis were performed to understand these WHS-related symptoms. Our results suggest that specific cell signaling pathways including dopamine receptor, NAD+ nucleosidase activity, and fibroblast growth factor-activated receptor activity are associated with the diverse pathological WHS phenotypes and their symptoms. Additionally, we identified 29 hub-bottlenecks (H-B nodes with a major role in WHS.

Clinical Trials With Large Numbers of Variables: Important Advantages of Canonical Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Cleophas, Ton J

2016-01-01

Canonical analysis assesses the combined effects of a set of predictor variables on a set of outcome variables, but it is little used in clinical trials despite the omnipresence of multiple variables. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of canonical analysis as compared with traditional multivariate methods using multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA). As an example, a simulated data file with 12 gene expression levels and 4 drug efficacy scores was used. The correlation coefficient between the 12 predictor and 4 outcome variables was 0.87 (P = 0.0001) meaning that 76% of the variability in the outcome variables was explained by the 12 covariates. Repeated testing after the removal of 5 unimportant predictor and 1 outcome variable produced virtually the same overall result. The MANCOVA identified identical unimportant variables, but it was unable to provide overall statistics. (1) Canonical analysis is remarkable, because it can handle many more variables than traditional multivariate methods such as MANCOVA can. (2) At the same time, it accounts for the relative importance of the separate variables, their interactions and differences in units. (3) Canonical analysis provides overall statistics of the effects of sets of variables, whereas traditional multivariate methods only provide the statistics of the separate variables. (4) Unlike other methods for combining the effects of multiple variables such as factor analysis/partial least squares, canonical analysis is scientifically entirely rigorous. (5) Limitations include that it is less flexible than factor analysis/partial least squares, because only 2 sets of variables are used and because multiple solutions instead of one is offered. We do hope that this article will stimulate clinical investigators to start using this remarkable method.

Multi-region and single-cell sequencing reveal variable genomic heterogeneity in rectal cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Mingshan; Liu, Yang; Di, Jiabo; Su, Zhe; Yang, Hong; Jiang, Beihai; Wang, Zaozao; Zhuang, Meng; Bai, Fan; Su, Xiangqian

2017-11-23

Colorectal cancer is a heterogeneous group of malignancies with complex molecular subtypes. While colon cancer has been widely investigated, studies on rectal cancer are very limited. Here, we performed multi-region whole-exome sequencing and single-cell whole-genome sequencing to examine the genomic intratumor heterogeneity (ITH) of rectal tumors. We sequenced nine tumor regions and 88 single cells from two rectal cancer patients with tumors of the same molecular classification and characterized their mutation profiles and somatic copy number alterations (SCNAs) at the multi-region and the single-cell levels. A variable extent of genomic heterogeneity was observed between the two patients, and the degree of ITH increased when analyzed on the single-cell level. We found that major SCNAs were early events in cancer development and inherited steadily. Single-cell sequencing revealed mutations and SCNAs which were hidden in bulk sequencing. In summary, we studied the ITH of rectal cancer at regional and single-cell resolution and demonstrated that variable heterogeneity existed in two patients. The mutational scenarios and SCNA profiles of two patients with treatment naïve from the same molecular subtype are quite different. Our results suggest each tumor possesses its own architecture, which may result in different diagnosis, prognosis, and drug responses. Remarkable ITH exists in the two patients we have studied, providing a preliminary impression of ITH in rectal cancer.

MULTIPLE-LOCUS VARIABLE-NUMBER TANDEM REPEAT ANALYSIS OF BRUCELLA ISOLATES FROM THAILAND.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumkrong, Khurawan; Chankate, Phanita; Tonyoung, Wittawat; Intarapuk, Apiradee; Kerdsin, Anusak; Kalambaheti, Thareerat

2017-01-01

Brucellosis-induced abortion can result in significant economic loss to farm animals. Brucellosis can be transmitted to humans during slaughter of infected animals or via consumption of contaminated food products. Strain identification of Brucella isolates can reveal the route of transmission. Brucella strains were isolated from vaginal swabs of farm animal, cow milk and from human blood cultures. Multiplex PCR was used to identify Brucella species, and owing to high DNA homology among Brucella isolates, multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) based on the number of tandem repeats at 16 different genomic loci was used for strain identification. Multiplex PCR categorized the isolates into B. abortus (n = 7), B. melitensis (n = 37), B. suis (n = 3), and 5 of unknown Brucella spp. MLVA-16 clustering analysis differentiated the strains into various genotypes, with Brucella isolates from the same geographic region being closely related, and revealed that the Thai isolates were phylogenetically distinct from those in other countries, including within the Southeast Asian region. Thus, MLVA-16 typing has utility in epidemiological studies.

ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL EFFICIENCY IN CROATIA USING DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS

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Danijela Rabar

2013-02-01

Full Text Available In this paper, regional efficiency of Croatian counties is measured in three-year period (2005-2007 using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA. The set of inputs and outputs consists of seven socioeconomic indicators. Analysis is carried out using models with assumption of variable returns-to-scale. DEA identifies efficient counties as benchmark members and inefficient counties that are analyzed in detail to determine the sources and the amounts of their inefficiency in each source. To enable proper monitoring of development dynamics, window analysis is applied. Based on the results, guidelines for implementing necessary improvements to achieve efficiency are given. Analysis reveals great disparities among counties. In order to alleviate naturally, historically and politically conditioned unequal county positions over which economic policy makers do not have total control, categorical approach is introduced as an extension to the basic DEA models. This approach, combined with window analysis, changes relations among efficiency scores in favor of continental counties.

Comparison of seasonal variability in European domestic radon measurements

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C. J. Groves-Kirkby

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Analysis of published data characterising seasonal variability of domestic radon concentrations in Europe and elsewhere shows significant variability between different countries and between regions where regional data is available. Comparison is facilitated by application of the Gini Coefficient methodology to reported seasonal variation data. Overall, radon-rich sedimentary strata, particularly high-porosity limestones, exhibit high seasonal variation, while radon-rich igneous lithologies demonstrate relatively constant, but somewhat higher, radon concentrations. High-variability regions include the Pennines and South Downs in England, Languedoc and Brittany in France, and especially Switzerland. Low-variability high-radon regions include the granite-rich Cornwall/Devon peninsula in England, and Auvergne and Ardennes in France, all components of the Devonian-Carboniferous Hercynian belt.

Regional climate change: Precipitation variability in mountainous part of Bulgaria

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Nikolova Nina

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of paper is to analyze temporal and spatial changes in monthly precipitation as well as extremely dry and wet months in mountainous part of Bulgaria. Study precipitation variability in mountainous part is very important because this part is the region where the rivers take its source from. Extreme values of monthly precipitation are important information for better understanding of the whole variability and trends in precipitation time series. The mean investigated period is 1951-2005 and the reference period is so called temporary climate - 1961- 1990. Extreme dry precipitation months are defined as a month whose monthly precipitation is lower than 10% of gamma distribution in the reference period 1961-1990. Extreme wet months are determined with respect to 90% percentiles of gamma distribution (monthly precipitation is higher than 90%. The result of the research show that in mountainous part of Bulgaria during 1950s and 1960s number of extremely wet months is higher than number of dry months. Decreasing of monthly precipitation is a feature for 1980s. This dry period continues till 2004. The years 2000 makes impression as driest year in high mountains with about 7 extremely dry months. The second dry year is 1993. The negative precipitation anomaly is most clearly determined during last decade at study area. The present research points out that fluctuation of precipitation in mountainous part of Bulgaria are coinciding with regional and global climate trends.

Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff for Kaidu River Basin in arid region of northwest China

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Chen, Zhongsheng; Chen, Yaning; Li, Baofu

2013-02-01

Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that climate variability and human activities have had on runoff. In this study, data from the Kaidu River Basin in the arid region of northwest China were analyzed to investigate changes in annual runoff during the period of 1960-2009. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test were used to identify trend and step change point in the annual runoff. It was found that the basin had a significant increasing trend in annual runoff. Step change point in annual runoff was identified in the basin, which occurred in the year around 1993 dividing the long-term runoff series into a natural period (1960-1993) and a human-induced period (1994-2009). Then, the hydrologic sensitivity analysis method was employed to evaluate the effects of climate variability and human activities on mean annual runoff for the human-induced period based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In 1994-2009, climate variability was the main factor that increased runoff with contribution of 90.5 %, while the increasing percentage due to human activities only accounted for 9.5 %, showing that runoff in the Kaidu River Basin is more sensitive to climate variability than human activities. This study quantitatively distinguishes the effects between climate variability and human activities on runoff, which can do duty for a reference for regional water resources assessment and management.

IRAS variables as galactic structure tracers - Classification of the bright variables

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, L. E.; Kleinmann, S. G.; Weinberg, M. D.

1993-01-01

The characteristics of the 'bright infrared variables' (BIRVs), a sample consisting of the 300 brightest stars in the IRAS Point Source Catalog with IRAS variability index VAR of 98 or greater, are investigated with the purpose of establishing which of IRAS variables are AGB stars (e.g., oxygen-rich Miras and carbon stars, as was assumed by Weinberg (1992)). Results of the analysis of optical, infrared, and microwave spectroscopy of these stars indicate that, out of 88 stars in the BIRV sample identified with cataloged variables, 86 can be classified as Miras. Results of a similar analysis performed for a color-selected sample of stars, using the color limits employed by Habing (1988) to select AGB stars, showed that, out of 52 percent of classified stars, 38 percent are non-AGB stars, including H II regions, planetary nebulae, supergiants, and young stellar objects, indicating that studies using color-selected samples are subject to misinterpretation.

Sensitivity of Sahelian Precipitation to Desert Dust under ENSO variability: a regional modeling study

Science.gov (United States)

Jordan, A.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2016-12-01

Mineral dust is estimated to comprise over half the total global aerosol burden, with a majority coming from the Sahara and Sahel region. Bounded by the Sahara Desert to the north and the Sahelian Savannah to the south, the Sahel experiences high interannual rainfall variability and a short rainy season during the boreal summer months. Observation-based data for the past three decades indicates a reduced dust emission trend, together with an increase in greening and surface roughness within the Sahel. Climate models used to study regional precipitation changes due to Saharan dust yield varied results, both in sign convention and magnitude. Inconsistency of model estimates drives future climate projections for the region that are highly varied and uncertain. We use the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to quantify the interaction and feedback between desert dust aerosol and Sahelian precipitation. Using nested domains at fine spatial resolution we resolve changes to mesoscale atmospheric circulation patterns due to dust, for representative phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NU-WRF regional earth system model offers both advanced land surface data and resolvable detail of the mechanisms of the impact of Saharan dust. Results are compared to our previous work assessed over the Western Sahel using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM2Mc global climate model, and to other previous regional climate model studies. This prompts further research to help explain the dust-precipitation relationship and recent North African dust emission trends. This presentation will offer a quantitative analysis of differences in radiation budget, energy and moisture fluxes, and atmospheric dynamics due to desert dust aerosol over the Sahel.

Scalable conditional induction variables (CIV) analysis

KAUST Repository

Oancea, Cosmin E.

2015-02-01

Subscripts using induction variables that cannot be expressed as a formula in terms of the enclosing-loop indices appear in the low-level implementation of common programming abstractions such as Alter, or stack operations and pose significant challenges to automatic parallelization. Because the complexity of such induction variables is often due to their conditional evaluation across the iteration space of loops we name them Conditional Induction Variables (CIV). This paper presents a flow-sensitive technique that summarizes both such CIV-based and affine subscripts to program level, using the same representation. Our technique requires no modifications of our dependence tests, which is agnostic to the original shape of the subscripts, and is more powerful than previously reported dependence tests that rely on the pairwise disambiguation of read-write references. We have implemented the CIV analysis in our parallelizing compiler and evaluated its impact on five Fortran benchmarks. We have found that that there are many important loops using CIV subscripts and that our analysis can lead to their scalable parallelization. This in turn has led to the parallelization of the benchmark programs they appear in.

Importance of Viral Sequence Length and Number of Variable and Informative Sites in Analysis of HIV Clustering.

Science.gov (United States)

Novitsky, Vlad; Moyo, Sikhulile; Lei, Quanhong; DeGruttola, Victor; Essex, M

2015-05-01

To improve the methodology of HIV cluster analysis, we addressed how analysis of HIV clustering is associated with parameters that can affect the outcome of viral clustering. The extent of HIV clustering and tree certainty was compared between 401 HIV-1C near full-length genome sequences and subgenomic regions retrieved from the LANL HIV Database. Sliding window analysis was based on 99 windows of 1,000 bp and 45 windows of 2,000 bp. Potential associations between the extent of HIV clustering and sequence length and the number of variable and informative sites were evaluated. The near full-length genome HIV sequences showed the highest extent of HIV clustering and the highest tree certainty. At the bootstrap threshold of 0.80 in maximum likelihood (ML) analysis, 58.9% of near full-length HIV-1C sequences but only 15.5% of partial pol sequences (ViroSeq) were found in clusters. Among HIV-1 structural genes, pol showed the highest extent of clustering (38.9% at a bootstrap threshold of 0.80), although it was significantly lower than in the near full-length genome sequences. The extent of HIV clustering was significantly higher for sliding windows of 2,000 bp than 1,000 bp. We found a strong association between the sequence length and proportion of HIV sequences in clusters, and a moderate association between the number of variable and informative sites and the proportion of HIV sequences in clusters. In HIV cluster analysis, the extent of detectable HIV clustering is directly associated with the length of viral sequences used, as well as the number of variable and informative sites. Near full-length genome sequences could provide the most informative HIV cluster analysis. Selected subgenomic regions with a high extent of HIV clustering and high tree certainty could also be considered as a second choice.

Climatological variability in modeling of long-term regional transport and deposition of air pollutants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shannon, J.D.

1984-01-01

In a growing number of emission policy analyses, regulatory proceedings, and cost/benefit assessments, numerical models of long-range transport and deposition of air pollutants have been exercised to estimate source-receptor (S-R) relationships--for the particular meteorological conditions input to the model. The representativeness of the meteorological conditions, or the variability of the model estimates with climatological input from different years or corresponding seasons from different years, is seldom evaluated. Here, two full years (1980 and 1981) of meteorological data, as well as data from January and July of 1978, are used in the Advanced Statistical Trajectory Regional Air Pollution (ASTRAP) model (Shannon, 1981), one of the eight Memorandum of Intent (MOI) models, to estimate deposition for the S-R matrix combination of eleven source regions and nine receptors used in the MOI reports. (S-R matrices of dimensions 40 by 9 were also examined in the MOI reports.) Improvements in the ASTRAP model and in the emission inventory since the earlier work require recalculation of the two-month 1978 simulation in order for the comparison to isolate the effect of meteorological variability. The source regions are listed, and the receptor regions are provide. For completeness, an additional source region, the western states and provinces, has been added, as well as a total for the 48 contiguous states and 10 provinces. 4 references, 9 tables

Climate change/variability science and adaptive strategies for state and regional transportation decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

The objective of this study was to generate a baseline understanding of current policy responses to climate : change/variability at the state and regional transportation-planning and -decision levels. Specifically, : researchers were interested in th...

Spatial and temporal analysis of drought variability at several time scales in Syria during 1961-2012

Science.gov (United States)

Mathbout, Shifa; Lopez-Bustins, Joan A.; Martin-Vide, Javier; Bech, Joan; Rodrigo, Fernando S.

2018-02-01

This paper analyses the observed spatiotemporal characteristics of drought phenomenon in Syria using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Temporal variability of drought is calculated for various time scales (3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months) for 20 weather stations over the 1961-2012 period. The spatial patterns of drought were identified by applying a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the SPI and SPEI values at different time scales. The results revealed three heterogeneous and spatially well-defined regions with different temporal evolution of droughts: 1) Northeastern (inland desert); 2) Southern (mountainous landscape); 3) Northwestern (Mediterranean coast). The evolutionary characteristics of drought during 1961-2012 were analysed including spatial and temporal variability of SPI and SPEI, the frequency distribution, and the drought duration. The results of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test applied to the SPI and SPEI series indicate prevailing significant negative trends (drought) at all stations. Both drought indices have been correlated both on spatial and temporal scales and they are highly comparable, especially, over a 12 and 24 month accumulation period. We concluded that the temporal and spatial characteristics of the SPI and SPEI can be used for developing a drought intensity - areal extent - and frequency curve that assesses the variability of regional droughts in Syria. The analysis of both indices suggests that all three regions had a severe drought in the 1990s, which had never been observed before in the country. Furthermore, the 2007-2010 drought was the driest period in the instrumental record, happening just before the onset of the recent conflict in Syria.

Novel Bacteriocinogenic Lactobacillus plantarum Strains and Their Differentiation by Sequence Analysis of 16S rDNA, 16S-23S and 23S-5S Intergenic Spacer Regions and Randomly Amplified Polymorphic DNA Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Morteza Shojaei Moghadam

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Six strains of bacteriocinogenic Lactobacillus plantarum (TL1, RG11, RS5, UL4, RG14 and RI11 isolated from Malaysian foods were investigated for their structural bacteriocin genes. A new combination of plantaricin EF and plantaricin W bacteriocin structural genes was successfully amplified from all studied strains, suggesting that they were novel bacteriocin-producing L. plantarum strains. A four-base pair variable region was detected in the short 16S-23S intergenic spacer regions of the studied strains by a comparative analysis with 17 L. plantarum strains deposited in the GenBank, implying they were new genotypes. The studied L. plantarum strains were subsequently differentiated into four groups on the basis of the detected four-base pair variable region of the short 16S-23S intergenic spacer region. Further analysis of the DNA sequence of 23S-5S intergenic spacer region revealed only one type of 23S-5S intergenic spacer region present in the studied strains, indicating it was highly conserved among the studied L. plantarum strains. Three randomly amplified polymorphic DNA experiments using three different combinations of arbitrary primers successfully differentiated the studied L. plantarum strains from each other, confirming they were different strains. In conclusion, the studied L. plantarum strains were shown to be novel bacteriocin producers and high level of strain discrimination could be achieved with a combination of randomly amplified polymorphic DNA analysis and the analysis of the variable region of short 16S-23S intergenic spacer region present in L. plantarum strains.

Influence of Climate Variability on US Regional Homicide Rates

Science.gov (United States)

Harp, R. D.; Karnauskas, K. B.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have found consistent evidence of a relationship between temperature and criminal behavior. However, despite agreement in the overall relationship, little progress has been made in distinguishing between two proposed explanatory theories. The General Affective Aggression Model (GAAM) suggests that high temperatures create periods of higher heat stress that enhance individual aggressiveness, whereas the Routine Activities Theory (RAT) theorizes that individuals are more likely to be outdoors interacting with others during periods of pleasant weather with a resulting increase in both interpersonal interactions and victim availability. Further, few studies have considered this relationship within the context of climate change in a quantitative manner. In an effort to distinguish between the two theories, and to examine the statistical relationships on a broader spatial scale than previously, we combined data from the Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR—compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR—compiled by the National Centers for Environmental Protection, a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). US homicide data described by the SHR was compared with seven relevant observed climate variables (temperature, dew point, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation, accumulated snowfall, snow cover, and snow depth) provided by the NARR atmospheric reanalysis. Relationships between homicide rates and climate variables, as well as reveal regional spatial patterns will be presented and discussed, along with the implications due to future climate change. This research lays the groundwork for the refinement of estimates of an oft-overlooked climate change impact, which has previously been estimated to cause an additional 22,000 murders between 2010 and 2099, including providing important constraints for empirical models of future violent crime incidences in the face of global

Robust cluster analysis and variable selection

CERN Document Server

Ritter, Gunter

2014-01-01

Clustering remains a vibrant area of research in statistics. Although there are many books on this topic, there are relatively few that are well founded in the theoretical aspects. In Robust Cluster Analysis and Variable Selection, Gunter Ritter presents an overview of the theory and applications of probabilistic clustering and variable selection, synthesizing the key research results of the last 50 years. The author focuses on the robust clustering methods he found to be the most useful on simulated data and real-time applications. The book provides clear guidance for the varying needs of bot

An integrated analysis of dry-wet variability in western China for the last 4-5 centuries

Science.gov (United States)

Qian, Weihong; Lin, Xiang

2009-09-01

The dry-wet variability in western China and its spatiotemporal structure during the last 4-5 centuries was examined using 24 climate proxies from sediments, ice cores, historical documents, and tree rings. Spatial patterns and temporal evolutions of dryness and wetness were not only extracted from the proxy data using rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis for the last 4 centuries, but also for instrumental data in the last 40 years. The leading five REOF modes indicate that 5 dry-wet variation centers exist in western China. Moreover, long-term variability in dryness and wetness is seen on long (centennial) to short (inter-decadal) timescales. An out-of-phase relationship for the inter-decadal variation was observed between the Hetao-upper Yangtze River region and north Xinjiang, indicating influences on dry-wet variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds over the two regions, respectively. A particularly long dry spell was found in the central Tibetan Plateau in the 19th century. A predominance of wet decades in the last 4 centuries was found in the arid and Hetao regions. Three regional dry-wet series with annual resolution in north Xinjiang, the upper Yellow River valley, and the Hetao area were constructed for analyses of the last 500 years. Dry-wet oscillations with periodicities of 16, 50, and 150 years in north Xinjiang, 50 years in the upper Yellow River valley, and 70-80 years in the Hetao region were identified by wavelet analysis. In general, these periods correspond to large-scale oscillations found in the climate system, are mainly related to ocean-atmosphere interaction.

Regional climate change mitigation analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rowlands, Ian H [UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment, and Univ. of Waterloo (Canada)

1998-10-01

The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the `regional` - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

Regional climate change mitigation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowlands, Ian H.

1998-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the 'regional' - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

[Quantitative analysis of drug expenditures variability in dermatology units].

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno-Ramírez, David; Ferrándiz, Lara; Ramírez-Soto, Gabriel; Muñoyerro, M Dolores

2013-01-01

Variability in adjusted drug expenditures among clinical departments raises the possibility of difficult access to certain therapies at the time that avoidable expenditures may also exist. Nevertheless, drug expenditures are not usually applied to clinical practice variability analysis. To identify and quantify variability in drug expenditures in comparable dermatology department of the Servicio Andaluz de Salud. Comparative economic analysis regarding the drug expenditures adjusted to population and health care production in 18 dermatology departments of the Servicio Andaluz de Salud. The 2012 cost and production data (homogeneous production units -HPU-)were provided by Inforcoan, the cost accounting information system of the Servicio Andaluz de Salud. The observed drug expenditure ratio ranged from 0.97?/inh to 8.90?/inh and from 208.45?/HPU to 1,471.95?/ HPU. The Pearson correlation between drug expenditure and population was 0.25 and 0.35 for the correlation between expenditure and homogeneous production (p=0.32 and p=0,15, respectively), both Pearson coefficients confirming the lack of correlation and arelevant degree of variability in drug expenditures. The quantitative analysis of variability performed through Pearson correlation has confirmed the existence of drug expenditure variability among comparable dermatology departments. Copyright © 2013 SEFH. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

REGRESSIONAL ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER NUTRITION SPENDINGS IN THE HOUSEHOLDS OF THE REGION AS FUNCTION OF PERSONAL INCOME AND PRICE

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I. N. Siulzhyn

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The multiple regression analysis method is widely used to describe and investigate some processes of the regional economy and may be also used to solve an important problem of distinguishing the effects of various independent or partially dependent variables. The regression model considered includes the specification of its constituent relationships, the choice of variables included in each relation, and the definition of mathematical functions corresponding to these relations. Regression model of food expenditure with two independent variables - expenditure as a function of income and price is based upon the official quarterly averaged statistical information (2015 and 2016 years. All the data are presented in the interpolated monthly version. Regression analysis made it possible to specify the dependence of expenditure on food in the country's households on the disposable personal income and the relative price of foodstuffs, which must be taken into account when solving problems of the region's social and economic development.

Variability of hepatitis C virus hypervariable region 1 (HVR-1) during the early phase of pegylated interferon and ribavirin therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Caraballo Cortés, K; Laskus, T; Bukowska-Ośko, I; Pawełczyk, A; Berak, H; Horban, A; Fic, M; Radkowski, M

2012-01-01

Genetic variability of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is considered to be an important factor defining viral pathogenesis, persistence and resistance to treatment. The aim of the present study was to characterize HCV genetic heterogeneity within a hypervariable region 1 (HVR-1) before and during the early period of pegylated interferon alfa (PEG-IFN-α) and ribavirin treatment in correlation with treatment outcome. The study involved 24 patients treated with PEG-IFN-α and ribavirin whose sera were collected before (baseline) and at 7, 14, 21 28 and 56 day of treatment. HCV HVR-1 region was amplified by nested RT- PCR and subjected to SSCP (single strand conformational polymorphism) analysis. SSCP changes of HCV HVR-1 over time in each patient were compared to treatment outcome results. In 2/11 (18%) SVR+ and 8/13 (62%) SVR- treated patients, HVR-1 genetic changes manifested by new SSCP bands (new genetic variants) and were significantly more frequent in nonresponders (P HVR-1 variability during the early phase of PEG-IFN-α and ribavirin therapy may be predictive of treatment outcome.

Analysis of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: skill, added value of regionalization, and ensemble size dependeny

Science.gov (United States)

Reyers, Mark; Moemken, Julia; Pinto, Joaquim; Feldmann, Hendrik; Kottmeier, Christoph; MiKlip Module-C Team

2017-04-01

Decadal climate predictions can provide a useful basis for decision making support systems for the public and private sectors. Several generations of decadal hindcasts and predictions have been generated throughout the German research program MiKlip. Together with the global climate predictions computed with MPI-ESM, the regional climate model (RCM) COSMO-CLM is used for regional downscaling by MiKlip Module-C. The RCMs provide climate information on spatial and temporal scales closer to the needs of potential users. In this study, two downscaled hindcast generations are analysed (named b0 and b1). The respective global generations are both initialized by nudging them towards different reanalysis anomaly fields. An ensemble of five starting years (1961, 1971, 1981, 1991, and 2001), each comprising ten ensemble members, is used for both generations in order to quantify the regional decadal prediction skill for precipitation and near-surface temperature and wind speed over Europe. All datasets (including hindcasts, observations, reanalysis, and historical MPI-ESM runs) are pre-processed in an analogue manner by (i) removing the long-term trend and (ii) re-gridding to a common grid. Our analysis shows that there is potential for skillful decadal predictions over Europe in the regional MiKlip ensemble, but the skill is not systematic and depends on the PRUDENCE region and the variable. Further, the differences between the two hindcast generations are mostly small. As we used detrended time series, the predictive skill found in our study can probably attributed to reasonable predictions of anomalies which are associated with the natural climate variability. In a sensitivity study, it is shown that the results may strongly change when the long-term trend is kept in the datasets, as here the skill of predicting the long-term trend (e.g. for temperature) also plays a major role. The regionalization of the global ensemble provides an added value for decadal predictions for

Effective Analysis of C Programs by Rewriting Variability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iosif-Lazar, Alexandru Florin; Melo, Jean; Dimovski, Aleksandar

2017-01-01

and effective analysis and verification of real-world C program families. Importance. We report some interesting variability-related bugs that we discovered using various state-of-the-art single-program C verification tools, such as Frama-C, Clang, LLBMC.......Context. Variability-intensive programs (program families) appear in many application areas and for many reasons today. Different family members, called variants, are derived by switching statically configurable options (features) on and off, while reuse of the common code is maximized. Inquiry....... Verification of program families is challenging since the number of variants is exponential in the number of features. Existing single-program analysis and verification tools cannot be applied directly to program families, and designing and implementing the corresponding variability-aware versions is tedious...

Real analysis series, functions of several variables, and applications

CERN Document Server

Laczkovich, Miklós

2017-01-01

This book develops the theory of multivariable analysis, building on the single variable foundations established in the companion volume, Real Analysis: Foundations and Functions of One Variable. Together, these volumes form the first English edition of the popular Hungarian original, Valós Analízis I & II, based on courses taught by the authors at Eötvös Loránd University, Hungary, for more than 30 years. Numerous exercises are included throughout, offering ample opportunities to master topics by progressing from routine to difficult problems. Hints or solutions to many of the more challenging exercises make this book ideal for independent study, or further reading. Intended as a sequel to a course in single variable analysis, this book builds upon and expands these ideas into higher dimensions. The modular organization makes this text adaptable for either a semester or year-long introductory course. Topics include: differentiation and integration of functions of several variables; infinite numerica...

A meta analysis of the variability in firm performance attributable to human resource variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lloyd Kapondoro

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The contribution of Human Resource Management (HRM practices to organisation-wide performance is a critical aspect of the Human Resource (HR value proposition. The purpose of the study was to describe the strength of HRM practices and systems in influencing overall organisational performance. While research has concluded that there is a significant positive relationship between HRM practices or systems and an organisation’s market performance, the strength of this relationship has relatively not received much analysis in order to explain the degree to which HRM practices explain variance in firm performance. The study undertook a meta-analysis of published researches in international journals. The study established that HRM variables accounted for an average of 31% of the variability in firm performance. Cohen’s f2 calculated for this study as a meta effect size calculation yielded an average of 0.681, implying that HRM variables account for 68% of variability in firm performance. A one sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test showed that the distribution of R2 is not normal. A major managerial implication of this study is that effective HRM practices have a significant business case. The study provides, quantitatively, the average variability in firm success that HRM accounts for.

Regional Shelter Analysis Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dillon, Michael B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Dennison, Deborah [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Kane, Jave [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Walker, Hoyt [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Miller, Paul [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2015-08-01

The fallout from a nuclear explosion has the potential to injure or kill 100,000 or more people through exposure to external gamma (fallout) radiation. Existing buildings can reduce radiation exposure by placing material between fallout particles and exposed people. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory was tasked with developing an operationally feasible methodology that could improve fallout casualty estimates. The methodology, called a Regional Shelter Analysis, combines the fallout protection that existing buildings provide civilian populations with the distribution of people in various locations. The Regional Shelter Analysis method allows the consideration of (a) multiple building types and locations within buildings, (b) country specific estimates, (c) population posture (e.g., unwarned vs. minimally warned), and (d) the time of day (e.g., night vs. day). The protection estimates can be combined with fallout predictions (or measurements) to (a) provide a more accurate assessment of exposure and injury and (b) evaluate the effectiveness of various casualty mitigation strategies. This report describes the Regional Shelter Analysis methodology, highlights key operational aspects (including demonstrating that the methodology is compatible with current tools), illustrates how to implement the methodology, and provides suggestions for future work.

A regional analysis of willingness-to-pay in Asian cruise markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chen, M.; Zhang, J.; Nijkamp, P.

2016-01-01

This article tests whether the willingness-to-pay (WTP) of cruise tourists is affected by multivariables, namely regional level variables, socio-demographic variables, cruise perception variables, cruise motivations and cruise preferences. Our research aims to measure the influence of the

Variability among the Most Rapidly Evolving Plastid Genomic Regions is Lineage-Specific: Implications of Pairwise Genome Comparisons in Pyrus (Rosaceae) and Other Angiosperms for Marker Choice

Science.gov (United States)

Ter-Voskanyan, Hasmik; Allgaier, Martin; Borsch, Thomas

2014-01-01

Plastid genomes exhibit different levels of variability in their sequences, depending on the respective kinds of genomic regions. Genes are usually more conserved while noncoding introns and spacers evolve at a faster pace. While a set of about thirty maximum variable noncoding genomic regions has been suggested to provide universally promising phylogenetic markers throughout angiosperms, applications often require several regions to be sequenced for many individuals. Our project aims to illuminate evolutionary relationships and species-limits in the genus Pyrus (Rosaceae)—a typical case with very low genetic distances between taxa. In this study, we have sequenced the plastid genome of Pyrus spinosa and aligned it to the already available P. pyrifolia sequence. The overall p-distance of the two Pyrus genomes was 0.00145. The intergenic spacers between ndhC–trnV, trnR–atpA, ndhF–rpl32, psbM–trnD, and trnQ–rps16 were the most variable regions, also comprising the highest total numbers of substitutions, indels and inversions (potentially informative characters). Our comparative analysis of further plastid genome pairs with similar low p-distances from Oenothera (representing another rosid), Olea (asterids) and Cymbidium (monocots) showed in each case a different ranking of genomic regions in terms of variability and potentially informative characters. Only two intergenic spacers (ndhF–rpl32 and trnK–rps16) were consistently found among the 30 top-ranked regions. We have mapped the occurrence of substitutions and microstructural mutations in the four genome pairs. High AT content in specific sequence elements seems to foster frequent mutations. We conclude that the variability among the fastest evolving plastid genomic regions is lineage-specific and thus cannot be precisely predicted across angiosperms. The often lineage-specific occurrence of stem-loop elements in the sequences of introns and spacers also governs lineage-specific mutations

Variability among the most rapidly evolving plastid genomic regions is lineage-specific: implications of pairwise genome comparisons in Pyrus (Rosaceae and other angiosperms for marker choice.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadja Korotkova

Full Text Available Plastid genomes exhibit different levels of variability in their sequences, depending on the respective kinds of genomic regions. Genes are usually more conserved while noncoding introns and spacers evolve at a faster pace. While a set of about thirty maximum variable noncoding genomic regions has been suggested to provide universally promising phylogenetic markers throughout angiosperms, applications often require several regions to be sequenced for many individuals. Our project aims to illuminate evolutionary relationships and species-limits in the genus Pyrus (Rosaceae-a typical case with very low genetic distances between taxa. In this study, we have sequenced the plastid genome of Pyrus spinosa and aligned it to the already available P. pyrifolia sequence. The overall p-distance of the two Pyrus genomes was 0.00145. The intergenic spacers between ndhC-trnV, trnR-atpA, ndhF-rpl32, psbM-trnD, and trnQ-rps16 were the most variable regions, also comprising the highest total numbers of substitutions, indels and inversions (potentially informative characters. Our comparative analysis of further plastid genome pairs with similar low p-distances from Oenothera (representing another rosid, Olea (asterids and Cymbidium (monocots showed in each case a different ranking of genomic regions in terms of variability and potentially informative characters. Only two intergenic spacers (ndhF-rpl32 and trnK-rps16 were consistently found among the 30 top-ranked regions. We have mapped the occurrence of substitutions and microstructural mutations in the four genome pairs. High AT content in specific sequence elements seems to foster frequent mutations. We conclude that the variability among the fastest evolving plastid genomic regions is lineage-specific and thus cannot be precisely predicted across angiosperms. The often lineage-specific occurrence of stem-loop elements in the sequences of introns and spacers also governs lineage-specific mutations. Sequencing

Scalable conditional induction variables (CIV) analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Oancea, Cosmin Eugen; Rauchwerger, Lawrence

2015-01-01

parallelizing compiler and evaluated its impact on five Fortran benchmarks. We have found that that there are many important loops using CIV subscripts and that our analysis can lead to their scalable parallelization. This in turn has led to the parallelization of the benchmark programs they appear in.......Subscripts using induction variables that cannot be expressed as a formula in terms of the enclosing-loop indices appear in the low-level implementation of common programming abstractions such as filter, or stack operations and pose significant challenges to automatic parallelization. Because...... the complexity of such induction variables is often due to their conditional evaluation across the iteration space of loops we name them Conditional Induction Variables (CIV). This paper presents a flow-sensitive technique that summarizes both such CIV-based and affine subscripts to program level, using the same...

Technical Efficiency Analysis of Container Terminals in the Middle Eastern Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ebrahim Sharaf Almawsheki

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Despite an increasing number of studies on the efficiency of container terminals, their focus has mostly been on advanced and emerging markets. There are limited studies on container terminals in developing countries such as those of the Middle Eastern region, which are located in a critical geographic position in the international maritime route between the East and the West. Information on their potential for development relative to other terminals worldwide is thus not readily available. This study aims to evaluate the technical efficiency of 19 container terminals in the Middle Eastern region. The DEA approach is used to measure technical efficiency, and slack variable analysis identifies potential areas of improvement for inefficient terminals. The results show that the Jebel Ali, Salalah and Beirut container terminals are the most efficient terminals in the region, and that the least efficient is the terminal in Aden. The results provide valuable information for terminal managers, helping to develop resource utilisation for steady development in operational efficiency.

[Analytical procedure of variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) analysis and effective use of analysis results for tuberculosis control].

Science.gov (United States)

Hachisu, Yushi; Hashimoto, Ruiko; Kishida, Kazunori; Yokoyama, Eiji

2013-12-01

Variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) analysis is one of the methods for molecular epidemiological studies of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. VNTR analysis is a method based on PCR, provides rapid highly reproducible results and higher strain discrimination power than the restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis widely used in molecular epidemiological studies of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Genetic lineage compositions of Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates differ among the regions from where they are isolated, and allelic diversity at each locus also differs among the genetic lineages of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Therefore, the combination of VNTR loci that can provide high discrimination capacity for analysis is not common in every region. The Japan Anti-Tuberculosis Association (JATA) 12 (15) reported a standard combination of VNTR loci for analysis in Japan, and the combination with hypervariable (HV) loci added to JATA12 (15), which has very high discrimination capacity, was also reported. From these reports, it is thought that data sharing between institutions and construction of a nationwide database will progress from now on. Using database construction of VNTR profiles, VNTR analysis has become an effective tool to trace the route of tuberculosis infection, and also helps in decision-making in the treatment course. However, in order to utilize the results of VNTR analysis effectively, it is important that each related organization cooperates closely, and analysis should be appropriately applied in the system in which accurate control and private information protection are ensured.

Monoclonal Antibodies Directed toward the Hepatitis C Virus Glycoprotein E2 Detect Antigenic Differences Modulated by the N-Terminal Hypervariable Region 1 (HVR1), HVR2, and Intergenotypic Variable Region.

Science.gov (United States)

Alhammad, Yousef; Gu, Jun; Boo, Irene; Harrison, David; McCaffrey, Kathleen; Vietheer, Patricia T; Edwards, Stirling; Quinn, Charles; Coulibaly, Fásseli; Poumbourios, Pantelis; Drummer, Heidi E

2015-12-01

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) envelope glycoproteins E1 and E2 form a heterodimer and mediate receptor interactions and viral fusion. Both E1 and E2 are targets of the neutralizing antibody (NAb) response and are candidates for the production of vaccines that generate humoral immunity. Previous studies demonstrated that N-terminal hypervariable region 1 (HVR1) can modulate the neutralization potential of monoclonal antibodies (MAbs), but no information is available on the influence of HVR2 or the intergenotypic variable region (igVR) on antigenicity. In this study, we examined how the variable regions influence the antigenicity of the receptor binding domain of E2 spanning HCV polyprotein residues 384 to 661 (E2661) using a panel of MAbs raised against E2661 and E2661 lacking HVR1, HVR2, and the igVR (Δ123) and well-characterized MAbs isolated from infected humans. We show for a subset of both neutralizing and nonneutralizing MAbs that all three variable regions decrease the ability of MAbs to bind E2661 and reduce the ability of MAbs to inhibit E2-CD81 interactions. In addition, we describe a new MAb directed toward the region spanning residues 411 to 428 of E2 (MAb24) that demonstrates broad neutralization against all 7 genotypes of HCV. The ability of MAb24 to inhibit E2-CD81 interactions is strongly influenced by the three variable regions. Our data suggest that HVR1, HVR2, and the igVR modulate exposure of epitopes on the core domain of E2 and their ability to prevent E2-CD81 interactions. These studies suggest that the function of HVR2 and the igVR is to modulate antibody recognition of glycoprotein E2 and may contribute to immune evasion. This study reveals conformational and antigenic differences between the Δ123 and intact E2661 glycoproteins and provides new structural and functional data about the three variable regions and their role in occluding neutralizing and nonneutralizing epitopes on the E2 core domain. The variable regions may therefore function to

A Study of Precipitation Climatology and Its Variability over Europe Using an Advanced Regional Model (WRF)

KAUST Repository

Dasari, Hari Prasad

2015-03-06

In recent years long-term precipitation trends on a regional scale have been given emphasis due to the impacts of global warming on regional hydrology. In this study, regional precipitation trends are simulated over the Europe continent for a 60-year period in 1950-2010 using an advanced regional model, WRF, to study extreme precipitation events over Europe. The model runs continuously for each year during the period at a horizontal resolution of 25 km with initial/ boundary conditions derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 2.5 degree reanalysis data sets. The E-OBS 0.25 degree rainfall observation analysis is used for model validation. Results indicate that the model could reproduce the spatial annual rainfall pattern over Europe with low amounts (250 - 750 mm) in Iberian Peninsula, moderate to large amounts (750 - 1500 mm) in central, eastern and northeastern parts of Europe and extremely heavy falls (1500 - 2000 mm) in hilly areas of Alps with a slight overestimation in Alps and underestimation in other parts of Europe. The regional model integrations showed increasing errors (mean absolute errors) and decreasing correlations with increasing time scale (daily to seasonal). Rainfall is simulated relatively better in Iberian Peninsula, northwest and central parts of Europe. A large spatial variability with the highest number of wet days over eastern, central Europe and Alps (~200 days/year) and less number of wet days over Iberian Peninsula (≤150 days/year) is also found in agreement with observations. The model could simulate the spatial rainfall climate variability reasonably well with low rainfall days (1 - 10 mm/days) in almost all zones, heavy rainfall events in western, northern, southeastern hilly and coastal zones and extremely heavy rainfall events in northern coastal zones. An increasing trend of heavy rainfall in central, southern and southeastern parts, a decreasing trend in Iberian Peninsula and a steady trend in other

Challenges from variation across regions in cost effectiveness analysis in multi-regional clinical trials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunbo Chu

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Economic evaluation in the form of cost-effectiveness analysis has become a popular means to inform decisions in healthcare. With multi-regional clinical trials in a global development program becoming a new venue for drug efficacy testing in recent decades, questions in methods for cost-effectiveness analysis in the multi-regional clinical trials setting also emerge. This paper addresses some challenges from variation across regions in cost effectiveness analysis in multi-regional clinical trials. Several discussion points are raised for further attention and a multi-regional clinical trial example is presented to illustrate the implications in industrial application. A general message is delivered to call for a depth discussion by all stakeholders to reach an agreement on a good practice in cost-effectiveness analysis in the multi-regional clinical trials. Meanwhile, we recommend an additional consideration of cost-effectiveness analysis results based on the clinical evidence from a certain homogeneous population as sensitivity or scenario analysis upon data availability.

Regional Analysis of Remote Sensing Based Evapotranspiration Information

Science.gov (United States)

Geli, H. M. E.; Hain, C.; Anderson, M. C.; Senay, G. B.

2017-12-01

Recent research findings on modeling actual evapotranspiration (ET) using remote sensing data and methods have proven the ability of these methods to address wide range of hydrological and water resources issues including river basin water balance for improved water resources management, drought monitoring, drought impact and socioeconomic responses, agricultural water management, optimization of land-use for water conservations, water allocation agreement among others. However, there is still a critical need to identify appropriate type of ET information that can address each of these issues. The current trend of increasing demand for water due to population growth coupled with variable and limited water supply due to drought especially in arid and semiarid regions with limited water supply have highlighted the need for such information. To properly address these issues different spatial and temporal resolutions of ET information will need to be used. For example, agricultural water management applications require ET information at field (30-m) and daily time scales while for river basin hydrologic analysis relatively coarser spatial and temporal scales can be adequate for such regional applications. The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the potential of using an integrated ET information that can be used to address some of these issues collectively. This analysis will highlight efforts to address some of the issues that are applicable to New Mexico including assessment of statewide water budget as well as drought impact and socioeconomic responses which all require ET information but at different spatial and temporal scales. This analysis will provide an evaluation of four remote sensing based ET models including ALEXI, DisALEXI, SSEBop, and SEBAL3.0. The models will be compared with ground-based observations from eddy covariance towers and water balance calculations. Remote sensing data from Landsat, MODIS, and VIIRS sensors will be used to provide ET

Monetary policy and regional output in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael Rockenbach da Silva Guimarães

2014-03-01

Full Text Available This work presents an analysis of whether the effects of the Brazilian monetary policy on regional outputs are symmetric. The strategy developed combines the techniques of principal component analysis (PCA to decompose the variables that measure regional economic activity into common and region-specific components and vector autoregressions (VAR to observe the behavior of these variables in response to monetary policy shocks. The common component responds to monetary policy as expected. Additionally, the idiosyncratic components of the regions showed no impact of monetary policy. The main finding of this paper is that the monetary policy responses on regional output are symmetrical when the regional output decomposition is performed, and the responses are asymmetrical when this decomposition is not performed. Therefore, performing the regional output decomposition corroborates the economic intuition that monetary policy has no impact on region-specific issues. Once monetary policy affects the common component of the regional economic activity and does not impact its idiosyncratic components, it can be considered symmetrical.

Evaluating the Impact of Localized GCM Grid Refinement on Regional Tropical Cyclone Climatology and Synoptic Variability using Variable-Resolution CAM-SE

Science.gov (United States)

Zarzycki, C.; Jablonowski, C.

2013-12-01

Using General Circulation Models (GCMs) to resolve sub-synoptic features in climate simulations has traditionally been difficult due to a multitude of atmospheric processes operating at subgrid scales requiring significant parameterization. For example, at traditional GCM horizontal grid resolutions of 50-300 km, tropical cyclones are generally under-resolved. This paper explores a novel variable-resolution global modeling approach that allows for high spatial resolutions in areas of interest, such as low-latitude ocean basins where tropical cyclogenesis occurs. Such multi-resolution GCM designs allow for targeted use of computing resources at the regional level while maintaining a globally-continuous model domain and may serve to bridge the gap between GCMs with uniform grids and boundary-forced limited area models. A statically-nested, variable-resolution option has recently been introduced into the Community Atmosphere Model's (CAM) Spectral Element (SE) dynamical core. A 110 km CAM-SE grid with a 28 km nest over the Atlantic Ocean has been coupled to land, ocean, and ice components within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We present the results of a multi-decadal climate simulation using Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) protocols, which force the model with historical sea surface temperatures and airborne chemical species. To investigate whether refinement improves the representation of tropical cyclones, we compare Atlantic storm statistics to observations with specific focus paid to intensity profiles and track densities. The resolution dependance of both cyclone structure and objective detection between refined and unrefined basins is explored. In addition, we discuss the potential impact of using variable-resolution grids on the large-scale synoptic interannual variability by comparing refined grid simulations to reanalysis data as well as an unrefined, globally-uniform CAM-SE simulation with identical forcing. We also evaluate the

Dynamic performance analysis of two regional Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia, Humberto E.; Chen, Jun; Kim, Jong S.; Vilim, Richard B.; Binder, William R.; Bragg Sitton, Shannon M.; Boardman, Richard D.; McKellar, Michael G.; Paredis, Christiaan J.J.

2016-01-01

In support of more efficient utilization of clean energy generation sources, including renewable and nuclear options, HES (hybrid energy systems) can be designed and operated as FER (flexible energy resources) to meet both electrical and thermal energy needs in the electric grid and industrial sectors. These conceptual systems could effectively and economically be utilized, for example, to manage the increasing levels of dynamic variability and uncertainty introduced by VER (variable energy resources) such as renewable sources (e.g., wind, solar), distributed energy resources, demand response schemes, and modern energy demands (e.g., electric vehicles) with their ever changing usage patterns. HES typically integrate multiple energy inputs (e.g., nuclear and renewable generation) and multiple energy outputs (e.g., electricity, gasoline, fresh water) using complementary energy conversion processes. This paper reports a dynamic analysis of two realistic HES including a nuclear reactor as the main baseload heat generator and to assess the local (e.g., HES owners) and system (e.g., the electric grid) benefits attainable by their application in scenarios with multiple commodity production and high renewable penetration. It is performed for regional cases – not generic examples – based on available resources, existing infrastructure, and markets within the selected regions. This study also briefly addresses the computational capabilities developed to conduct such analyses. - Highlights: • Hybrids including renewables can operate as dispatchable flexible energy resources. • Nuclear energy can address high variability and uncertainty in energy systems. • Nuclear hybrids can reliably provide grid services over various time horizons. • Nuclear energy can provide operating reserves and grid inertia under high renewables. • Nuclear hybrids can greatly reduce GHG emissions and support grid and industry needs.

Variable Frame Rate and Length Analysis for Data Compression in Distributed Speech Recognition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kraljevski, Ivan; Tan, Zheng-Hua

2014-01-01

This paper addresses the issue of data compression in distributed speech recognition on the basis of a variable frame rate and length analysis method. The method first conducts frame selection by using a posteriori signal-to-noise ratio weighted energy distance to find the right time resolution...... length for steady regions. The method is applied to scalable source coding in distributed speech recognition where the target bitrate is met by adjusting the frame rate. Speech recognition results show that the proposed approach outperforms other compression methods in terms of recognition accuracy...... for noisy speech while achieving higher compression rates....

Occurrence and multivariate exploratory analysis of the natural radioactivity anomaly in the south coastal region of Kenya

Science.gov (United States)

Kaniu, M. I.; Angeyo, K. H.; Darby, I. G.

2018-05-01

Characterized by a variety of rock formations, namely alkaline, igneous and sedimentary that contain significant deposits of monazite and pyrochlore ores, the south coastal region of Kenya may be regarded as highly heterogeneous with regard to its geochemistry, mineralogy as well as geological morphology. The region is one of the several alkaline carbonatite complexes of Kenya that are associated with high natural background radiation and therefore radioactivity anomaly. However, this high background radiation (HBR) anomaly has hardly been systematically assessed and delineated with regard to the spatial, geological, geochemical as well as anthropogenic variability and co-dependencies. We conducted wide-ranging in-situ gamma-ray spectrometric measurements in this area. The goal of the study was to assess the radiation exposure as well as determine the underlying natural radioactivity levels in the region. In this paper we report the occurrence, exploratory analysis and modeling to assess the multivariate geo-dependence and spatial variability of the radioactivity and associated radiation exposure. Unsupervised principal component analysis and ternary plots were utilized in the study. It was observed that areas which exhibit HBR anomalies are located along the south coast paved road and in the Mrima-Kiruku complex. These areas showed a trend towards enhanced levels of 232Th and 238U and low 40K. The spatial variability of the radioactivity anomaly was found to be mainly constrained by anthropogenic activities, underlying geology and geochemical processes in the terrestrial environment.

Volumetric analysis of regional variability in the cerebellum of children with dyslexia.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez, Vindia G; Stuebing, Karla; Juranek, Jenifer; Fletcher, Jack M

2013-12-01

Cerebellar deficits and subsequent impairment in procedural learning may contribute to both motor difficulties and reading impairment in dyslexia. We used quantitative magnetic resonance imaging to investigate the role of regional variation in cerebellar anatomy in children with single-word decoding impairments (N = 23), children with impairment in fluency alone (N = 8), and typically developing children (N = 16). Children with decoding impairments (dyslexia) demonstrated no statistically significant differences in overall grey and white matter volumes or cerebellar asymmetry; however, reduced volume in the anterior lobe of the cerebellum relative to typically developing children was observed. These results implicate cerebellar involvement in dyslexia and establish an important foundation for future research on the connectivity of the cerebellum and cortical regions typically associated with reading impairment.

Landsat-based trend analysis of lake dynamics across northern permafrost regions

Science.gov (United States)

Nitze, Ingmar; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.; Ulrich, Mathias; Federov, Alexander; Veremeeva, Alexandra

2017-01-01

Lakes are a ubiquitous landscape feature in northern permafrost regions. They have a strong impact on carbon, energy and water fluxes and can be quite responsive to climate change. The monitoring of lake change in northern high latitudes, at a sufficiently accurate spatial and temporal resolution, is crucial for understanding the underlying processes driving lake change. To date, lake change studies in permafrost regions were based on a variety of different sources, image acquisition periods and single snapshots, and localized analysis, which hinders the comparison of different regions. Here we present, a methodology based on machine-learning based classification of robust trends of multi-spectral indices of Landsat data (TM,ETM+, OLI) and object-based lake detection, to analyze and compare the individual, local and regional lake dynamics of four different study sites (Alaska North Slope, Western Alaska, Central Yakutia, Kolyma Lowland) in the northern permafrost zone from 1999 to 2014. Regional patterns of lake area change on the Alaska North Slope (-0.69%), Western Alaska (-2.82%), and Kolyma Lowland (-0.51%) largely include increases due to thermokarst lake expansion, but more dominant lake area losses due to catastrophic lake drainage events. In contrast, Central Yakutia showed a remarkable increase in lake area of 48.48%, likely resulting from warmer and wetter climate conditions over the latter half of the study period. Within all study regions, variability in lake dynamics was associated with differences in permafrost characteristics, landscape position (i.e. upland vs. lowland), and surface geology. With the global availability of Landsat data and a consistent methodology for processing the input data derived from robust trends of multi-spectral indices, we demonstrate a transferability, scalability and consistency of lake change analysis within the northern permafrost region.

Baseflow recession analysis in a large shale play: Climate variability and anthropogenic alterations mask effects of hydraulic fracturing

Science.gov (United States)

Arciniega-Esparza, Saúl; Breña-Naranjo, Jose Agustín; Hernández-Espriú, Antonio; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Nicot, Jean Philippe; Young, Michael H.; Wolaver, Brad D.; Alcocer-Yamanaka, Victor Hugo

2017-10-01

Water resources development and landscape alteration exert marked impacts on water-cycle dynamics, including areas subjected to hydraulic fracturing (HF) for exploitation of unconventional oil and gas resources found in shale or tight sandstones. Here we apply a conceptual framework for linking baseflow analysis to changes in water demands from different sectors (e.g. oil/gas extraction, irrigation, and municipal consumption) and climatic variability in the semiarid Eagle Ford play in Texas, USA. We hypothesize that, in water-limited regions, baseflow (Qb) changes are partly due (along with climate variability) to groundwater abstraction. For a more realistic assessment, the analysis was conducted in two different sets of unregulated catchments, located outside and inside the Eagle Ford play. Three periods were considered in the analysis related to HF activities: pre-development (1980-2000), moderate (2001-2008) and intensive (2009-2015) periods. Results indicate that in the Eagle Ford play region, temporal changes in baseflow cannot be directly related to the increase in hydraulic fracturing. Instead, substantial baseflow declines during the intensive period of hydraulic fracturing represent the aggregated effects from the combination of: (1) a historical exceptional drought during 2011-2012; (2) increased groundwater-based irrigation; and (3) an intensive hydraulic fracturing activity.

Some aspects of regional flow of variable-density groundwater in crystalline basement rock of Sweden

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voss, C.I.; Andersson, Johan

1991-12-01

The distribution of saltwaters in the Baltic shield in Sweden is consistent with ongoing but incomplete Holocene flushing and depends on the geometry and connectivity of conductive structures at both regional and local scales, and on the surface topography. Numerical simulation of regional variable-density fluid flow during Holocene land-rise and coastal regression shows that the existence of any old saltwater, whether derived from submarine recharge in regions below Sweden's highest post-glacial coastline or geochemical processes, is an indication either of slow fluid movements through the bedrock over long times, or of long travel distances through fracture systems before arriving at measurement points. During the land-rise period, regional flow is not affected by the variable density of fluids in the upper few kilometers of the shield and the topography of the water table is the only driving force. The spatial distribution of meteoric flushing water and pre-Holocene waters may be complex, with the possibility of relatively fresh water in fracture zones below salty units even at depths of a few kilometers. The domination of the topographic driving force implies that deep saltwater is not necessarily stagnant, and significant saltwater flows may be expected to occur in well-connected horizons even at depth. Local topography variation and fracture zone location combine to create a complex flow field in which local topographic driving forces extend to considerable depth in some areas, whereas regional topographic forces predominate in others. Thus, a pattern may be difficult to discern in measurements of the regional saltwater distribution, although it is clear that the coastal region is the major zone of discharge for deeper pre-Holocene fluids. During the land-rise period, regional flow equilibrates with changing climatic conditions and coastal positions, while the distribution of flushing water and older waters lags and will perpetually change between successive

Regional Community Climate Simulations with variable resolution meshes in the Community Earth System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Zarzycki, C. M.; Gettelman, A.; Callaghan, P.

2017-12-01

Accurately predicting weather extremes such as precipitation (floods and droughts) and temperature (heat waves) requires high resolution to resolve mesoscale dynamics and topography at horizontal scales of 10-30km. Simulating such resolutions globally for climate scales (years to decades) remains computationally impractical. Simulating only a small region of the planet is more tractable at these scales for climate applications. This work describes global simulations using variable-resolution static meshes with multiple dynamical cores that target the continental United States using developmental versions of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). CESM2 is tested in idealized, aquaplanet and full physics configurations to evaluate variable mesh simulations against uniform high and uniform low resolution simulations at resolutions down to 15km. Different physical parameterization suites are also evaluated to gauge their sensitivity to resolution. Idealized variable-resolution mesh cases compare well to high resolution tests. More recent versions of the atmospheric physics, including cloud schemes for CESM2, are more stable with respect to changes in horizontal resolution. Most of the sensitivity is due to sensitivity to timestep and interactions between deep convection and large scale condensation, expected from the closure methods. The resulting full physics model produces a comparable climate to the global low resolution mesh and similar high frequency statistics in the high resolution region. Some biases are reduced (orographic precipitation in the western United States), but biases do not necessarily go away at high resolution (e.g. summertime JJA surface Temp). The simulations are able to reproduce uniform high resolution results, making them an effective tool for regional climate studies and are available in CESM2.

[Effects of land use and environmental factors on the variability of soil quality indicators in hilly Loess Plateau region of China].

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Ming-Xiang; Liu, Guo-Bin; Zhao, Yun-Ge

2011-02-01

Classical statistics methods were adopted to analyze the soil quality variability, its affecting factors, and affecting degree at a regional scale (700 km2) in the central part of hilly Loess Plateau region of China. There existed great differences in the variability of test soil quality indicators. Soil pH, structural coefficient, silt content, specific gravity, bulk density, total porosity, capillary porosity, and catalase activity were the indicators with weak variability; soil nutrients (N, P, and K) contents, CaCO3 content, cation exchange capacity (CEC), clay content, micro-aggregate mean mass diameter, aggregate mean mass diameter, water-stable aggregates, respiration rate, microbial quotient, invertase and phosphatase activities, respiratory quotient, and microbial carbon and nitrogen showed medium variation; while soil labile organic carbon and phosphorus contents, erosion-resistance, permeability coefficient, and urease activity were the indicators with strong variability. The variability of soil CaCO3, total P and K, CEC, texture, and specific gravity, etc. was correlated with topography and other environmental factors, while the variability of dynamic soil quality indicators, including soil organic matter content, nitrogen content, water-stable aggregates, permeability, microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen, enzyme activities, and respiration rate, was mainly correlated with land use type. Overall, land use pattern explained 97% of the variability of soil quality indicators in the region. It was suggested that in the evaluation of soil quality in hilly Loess Plateau region, land use type and environmental factors should be fully considered.

Genetic variability of watermelon accessions based on microsatellite markers.

Science.gov (United States)

de S Gama, R N C; Santos, C A F; de C S Dias, R

2013-03-13

We analyzed the genetic variability of 40 watermelon accessions collected from 8 regions of Northeastern Brazil using microsatellite markers, in order to suggest strategies of conservation and utilization of genetic variability in this species. These accessions are not commercial cultivars. They were sampled in areas of traditional farmers that usually keep their own seeds for future plantings year after year. An UPGMA dendrogram was generated from a distance matrix of the Jaccard coefficient, based on 41 alleles of 13 microsatellite loci. Analysis of molecular variance was made by partitioning between and within geographical regions. The similarity coefficient between accessions ranged from 37 to 96%; the dendrogram gave a co-phenetic value of 0.80. The among population genetic variability was high ( (^)ϕST = 0.319). Specific clusters of accessions sampled in 3 regions of Maranhão were observed while the other 5 regions did not presented specific clusters by regions. We conclude that watermelon genetic variability is not uniformly dispersed in the regions analyzed, indicating that geographical barriers or edaphoclimatic conditions have limited open mating. We suggest sampling a greater number of populations, so regional species diversity will be better represented and preserved in the germplasm bank.

Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China

KAUST Repository

Gao, Tao; Wang, Huixia Judy; Zhou, Tianjun

2017-01-01

of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC

Mitochondrial variability in the D-loop of four equine breeds shown by PCR-SSCP analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mirol Patricia M.

2002-01-01

Full Text Available A fragment of 466 base pairs from a highly variable peripheral region of the mitochondrial D-loop of horses was amplified and analyzed by single stranded conformational polymorphism (SSCP. Fourteen distinct SSCP variants were detected in 100 horses belonging to four breeds (Arabian, ARB; Thoroughbred, TB; Argentinian Creole, ARC; and Peruvian Paso from Argentina, PPA. Each breed showed four to eight SSCP variants, many of which were shared between two or three of the studied breeds. Arabian horses were the most variable (eigth variants, with three variants unique to the breed. PPA and ARC showed two and one characteristic SSCP variants, respectively, while TB shared all its variants with at least one of the other breeds. An analysis based on the presence/absence of the variants revealed a closer relationship between PPA and TB, which was not completely unexpected considering the mixed ancestry of the PPA mares. The results also confirm the efficiency of SSCP to detect variability in horse mitochondrial DNA.

A meta-analysis of plant facilitation in coastal dune systems: responses, regions, and research gaps.

Science.gov (United States)

Castanho, Camila de Toledo; Lortie, Christopher J; Zaitchik, Benjamin; Prado, Paulo Inácio

2015-01-01

Empirical studies in salt marshes, arid, and alpine systems support the hypothesis that facilitation between plants is an important ecological process in severe or 'stressful' environments. Coastal dunes are both abiotically stressful and frequently disturbed systems. Facilitation has been documented, but the evidence to date has not been synthesized. We did a systematic review with meta-analysis to highlight general research gaps in the study of plant interactions in coastal dunes and examine if regional and local factors influence the magnitude of facilitation in these systems. The 32 studies included in the systematic review were done in coastal dunes located in 13 countries around the world but the majority was in the temperate zone (63%). Most of the studies adopt only an observational approach to make inferences about facilitative interactions, whereas only 28% of the studies used both observational and experimental approaches. Among the factors we tested, only geographic region mediates the occurrence of facilitation more broadly in coastal dune systems. The presence of a neighbor positively influenced growth and survival in the tropics, whereas in temperate and subartic regions the effect was neutral for both response variables. We found no evidence that climatic and local factors, such as life-form and life stage of interacting plants, affect the magnitude of facilitation in coastal dunes. Overall, conclusions about plant facilitation in coastal dunes depend on the response variable measured and, more broadly, on the geographic region examined. However, the high variability and the limited number of studies, especially in tropical region, indicate we need to be cautious in the generalization of the conclusions. Anyway, coastal dunes provide an important means to explore topical issues in facilitation research including context dependency, local versus regional drivers of community structure, and the importance of gradients in shaping the outcome of net

A meta-analysis of plant facilitation in coastal dune systems: responses, regions, and research gaps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camila de Toledo Castanho

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Empirical studies in salt marshes, arid, and alpine systems support the hypothesis that facilitation between plants is an important ecological process in severe or ‘stressful’ environments. Coastal dunes are both abiotically stressful and frequently disturbed systems. Facilitation has been documented, but the evidence to date has not been synthesized. We did a systematic review with meta-analysis to highlight general research gaps in the study of plant interactions in coastal dunes and examine if regional and local factors influence the magnitude of facilitation in these systems. The 32 studies included in the systematic review were done in coastal dunes located in 13 countries around the world but the majority was in the temperate zone (63%. Most of the studies adopt only an observational approach to make inferences about facilitative interactions, whereas only 28% of the studies used both observational and experimental approaches. Among the factors we tested, only geographic region mediates the occurrence of facilitation more broadly in coastal dune systems. The presence of a neighbor positively influenced growth and survival in the tropics, whereas in temperate and subartic regions the effect was neutral for both response variables. We found no evidence that climatic and local factors, such as life-form and life stage of interacting plants, affect the magnitude of facilitation in coastal dunes. Overall, conclusions about plant facilitation in coastal dunes depend on the response variable measured and, more broadly, on the geographic region examined. However, the high variability and the limited number of studies, especially in tropical region, indicate we need to be cautious in the generalization of the conclusions. Anyway, coastal dunes provide an important means to explore topical issues in facilitation research including context dependency, local versus regional drivers of community structure, and the importance of gradients in shaping

Frequency spectrum analysis of finger photoplethysmographic waveform variability during haemodialysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Javed, Faizan; Middleton, Paul M; Malouf, Philip; Chan, Gregory S H; Savkin, Andrey V; Lovell, Nigel H; Steel, Elizabeth; Mackie, James

2010-09-01

This study investigates the peripheral circulatory and autonomic response to volume withdrawal in haemodialysis based on spectral analysis of photoplethysmographic waveform variability (PPGV). Frequency spectrum analysis was performed on the baseline and pulse amplitude variabilities of the finger infrared photoplethysmographic (PPG) waveform and on heart rate variability extracted from the ECG signal collected from 18 kidney failure patients undergoing haemodialysis. Spectral powers were calculated from the low frequency (LF, 0.04-0.145 Hz) and high frequency (HF, 0.145-0.45 Hz) bands. In eight stable fluid overloaded patients (fluid removal of >2 L) not on alpha blockers, progressive reduction in relative blood volume during haemodialysis resulted in significant increase in LF and HF powers of PPG baseline and amplitude variability (P analysis of finger PPGV may provide valuable information on the autonomic vascular response to blood volume reduction in haemodialysis, and can be potentially utilized as a non-invasive tool for assessing peripheral circulatory control during routine dialysis procedure.

Data sets used in the analysis presented in the manuscript “Regional and Hemispheric Influences on Temporal Variability in Baseline Carbon Monoxide and Ozone over the Northeast US”

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset documents that all of the data analyzed in the manuscript "Regional and Hemispheric Influences on Temporal Variability in Baseline Carbon Monoxide and...

Estimation of regional intensity-duration-frequency curves for extreme precipitation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Rosbjerg, Dan

1998-01-01

of regional homogeneity and identification of a proper regional distribution L-moment analysis is applied. To analyse the regional variability in more detail, a generalised least squares regression analysis is carried out that relates the PDS model parameters to climatic and physiographic characteristics...

Variability in the Water Footprint of Arable Crop Production across European Regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne Gobin

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Crop growth and yield are affected by water use during the season: the green water footprint (WF accounts for rain water, the blue WF for irrigation and the grey WF for diluting agri-chemicals. We calibrated crop yield for FAO’s water balance model “Aquacrop” at field level. We collected weather, soil and crop inputs for 45 locations for the period 1992–2012. Calibrated model runs were conducted for wheat, barley, grain maize, oilseed rape, potato and sugar beet. The WF of cereals could be up to 20 times larger than the WF of tuber and root crops; the largest share was attributed to the green WF. The green and blue WF compared favourably with global benchmark values (R2 = 0.64–0.80; d = 0.91–0.95. The variability in the WF of arable crops across different regions in Europe is mainly due to variability in crop yield ( c v ¯ = 45% and to a lesser extent to variability in crop water use ( c v ¯ = 21%. The WF variability between countries ( c v ¯ = 14% is lower than the variability between seasons ( c v ¯ = 22% and between crops ( c v ¯ = 46%. Though modelled yields increased up to 50% under sprinkler irrigation, the water footprint still increased between 1% and 25%. Confronted with drainage and runoff, the grey WF tended to overestimate the contribution of nitrogen to the surface and groundwater. The results showed that the water footprint provides a measurable indicator that may support European water governance.

Synoptic meteorological modes of variability for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in major metropolitan regions of China

Science.gov (United States)

Leung, Danny M.; Tai, Amos P. K.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Moch, Jonathan M.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Shen, Lu; Martin, Randall V.

2018-05-01

In his study, we use a combination of multivariate statistical methods to understand the relationships of PM2.5 with local meteorology and synoptic weather patterns in different regions of China across various timescales. Using June 2014 to May 2017 daily total PM2.5 observations from ˜ 1500 monitors, all deseasonalized and detrended to focus on synoptic-scale variations, we find strong correlations of daily PM2.5 with all selected meteorological variables (e.g., positive correlation with temperature but negative correlation with sea-level pressure throughout China; positive and negative correlation with relative humidity in northern and southern China, respectively). The spatial patterns suggest that the apparent correlations with individual meteorological variables may arise from common association with synoptic systems. Based on a principal component analysis of 1998-2017 meteorological data to diagnose distinct meteorological modes that dominate synoptic weather in four major regions of China, we find strong correlations of PM2.5 with several synoptic modes that explain 10 to 40 % of daily PM2.5 variability. These modes include monsoonal flows and cold frontal passages in northern and central China associated with the Siberian High, onshore flows in eastern China, and frontal rainstorms in southern China. Using the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region as a case study, we further find strong interannual correlations of regionally averaged satellite-derived annual mean PM2.5 with annual mean relative humidity (RH; positive) and springtime fluctuation frequency of the Siberian High (negative). We apply the resulting PM2.5-to-climate sensitivities to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections to predict future PM2.5 by the 2050s due to climate change, and find a modest decrease of ˜ 0.5 µg m-3 in annual mean PM2.5 in the BTH region due to more frequent cold frontal ventilation

Dispositional Variables and Work-Family Conflict: A Meta-Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Tammy D.; Johnson, Ryan C.; Saboe, Kristin N.; Cho, Eunae; Dumani, Soner; Evans, Sarah

2012-01-01

Meta-analysis was used to comprehensively summarize the relationship between dispositional variables and both directions of work-family conflict. The largest effects detected were those associated with negative affect, neuroticism, and self-efficacy; all were in expected directions. In general, negative trait-based variables (e.g., negative affect…

Transforming p21 ras protein: flexibility in the major variable region linking the catalytic and membrane-anchoring domains

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willumsen, B M; Papageorge, A G; Hubbert, N

1985-01-01

or increasing it to 50 amino acids has relatively little effect on the capacity of the gene to induce morphological transformation of NIH 3T3 cells. Assays of GTP binding, GTPase and autophosphorylating activities of such mutant v-rasH-encoded proteins synthesized in bacteria indicated that the sequences...... that is required for post-translational processing, membrane localization and transforming activity of the proteins. We have now used the viral oncogene (v-rasH) of Harvey sarcoma virus to study the major variable region by deleting or duplicating parts of the gene. Reducing this region to five amino acids...... that encode these biochemical activities are located upstream from the major variable region. In the context of transformation, we propose that the region of sequence heterogeneity serves principally to connect the N-terminal catalytic domain with amino acids at the C terminus that are required to anchor...

Iterative Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data Analysis for Extended Independent Variable Sets

Science.gov (United States)

Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred

2011-01-01

A new method was developed that makes it possible to use an extended set of independent calibration variables for an iterative analysis of wind tunnel strain gage balance calibration data. The new method permits the application of the iterative analysis method whenever the total number of balance loads and other independent calibration variables is greater than the total number of measured strain gage outputs. Iteration equations used by the iterative analysis method have the limitation that the number of independent and dependent variables must match. The new method circumvents this limitation. It simply adds a missing dependent variable to the original data set by using an additional independent variable also as an additional dependent variable. Then, the desired solution of the regression analysis problem can be obtained that fits each gage output as a function of both the original and additional independent calibration variables. The final regression coefficients can be converted to data reduction matrix coefficients because the missing dependent variables were added to the data set without changing the regression analysis result for each gage output. Therefore, the new method still supports the application of the two load iteration equation choices that the iterative method traditionally uses for the prediction of balance loads during a wind tunnel test. An example is discussed in the paper that illustrates the application of the new method to a realistic simulation of temperature dependent calibration data set of a six component balance.

Validation of EURO-CORDEX regional climate models in reproducing the variability of precipitation extremes in Romania

Science.gov (United States)

Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Busuioc, Aristita

2016-04-01

EURO-CORDEX is the European branch of the international CORDEX initiative that aims to provide improved regional climate change projections for Europe. The main objective of this paper is to document the performance of the individual models in reproducing the variability of precipitation extremes in Romania. Here three EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) ensemble (scenario RCP4.5) are analysed and inter-compared: DMI-HIRHAM5, KNMI-RACMO2.2 and MPI-REMO. Compared to previous studies, when the RCM validation regarding the Romanian climate has mainly been made on mean state and at station scale, a more quantitative approach of precipitation extremes is proposed. In this respect, to have a more reliable comparison with observation, a high resolution daily precipitation gridded data set was used as observational reference (CLIMHYDEX project). The comparison between the RCM outputs and observed grid point values has been made by calculating three extremes precipitation indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI), for the 1976-2005 period: R10MM, annual count of days when precipitation ≥10mm; RX5DAY, annual maximum 5-day precipitation and R95P%, precipitation fraction of annual total precipitation due to daily precipitation > 95th percentile. The RCMs capability to reproduce the mean state for these variables, as well as the main modes of their spatial variability (given by the first three EOF patterns), are analysed. The investigation confirms the ability of RCMs to simulate the main features of the precipitation extreme variability over Romania, but some deficiencies in reproducing of their regional characteristics were found (for example, overestimation of the mea state, especially over the extra Carpathian regions). This work has been realised within the research project "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania" (CLIMHYDEX), code PN II-ID-2011-2-0073, financed by the Romanian

Epigenetic variability in conversion to psychosis: novel findings from an innovative longitudinal methylomic analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kebir, Oussama; Chaumette, Boris; Krebs, Marie-Odile

2018-04-26

Conversion to psychosis is a longitudinal process during which several epigenetic changes have been described. We tested the hypothesis that epigenetic variability in the methylomes of ultra-high risk (UHR) individuals may contribute to the risk of conversion. We studied a longitudinal cohort of UHR individuals (n = 39) and compared two groups (converters, n = 14 vs. non-converters, n = 25). A longitudinal methylomic study was conducted using Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip covering half a million cytosine-phosphate-guanine (CpG) sites across the human genome from whole-blood samples. We used two statistical methods to investigate the variability of methylation probes. (i) The search for longitudinal variable methylation probes (VMPs) based on median comparisons identified two VMPs in converters only. The first CpG was located in the MACROD2 gene and the second CpG was in an intergenic region at 8q24.21. (ii) The detection of outliers using variance analysis related to private epimutations identified a dozen CpGs in converters only and highlighted two genes (RAC1 and SPHK1) from the sphingolipid signaling pathway. Our study is the first to support increased methylome variability during conversion to psychosis. We speculate that stochastic factors could increase DNA methylation variability and have a role in the complex pathophysiology of conversion to psychosis as well as in other psychiatric diseases.

Nuclear power regional analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parera, María Delia

2011-01-01

In this study, a regional analysis of the Argentine electricity market was carried out considering the effects of regional cooperation, national and international interconnections; additionally, the possibilities of insertion of new nuclear power plants in different regions were evaluated, indicating the most suitable areas for these facilities to increase the penetration of nuclear energy in national energy matrix. The interconnection of electricity markets and natural gas due to the linkage between both energy forms was also studied. With this purpose, MESSAGE program was used (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts), promoted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This model performs a country-level economic optimization, resulting in the minimum cost for the modelling system. Regionalization executed by the Wholesale Electricity Market Management Company (CAMMESA, by its Spanish acronym) that divides the country into eight regions. The characteristics and the needs of each region, their respective demands and supplies of electricity and natural gas, as well as existing and planned interconnections, consisting of power lines and pipelines were taken into account. According to the results obtained through the model, nuclear is a competitive option. (author) [es

Data base for the analysis of compositional characteristics of coal seams and macerals. Final report - Part 10. Variability in the inorganic content of United States' coals: a multivariate statistical study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glick, D.C.; Davis, A.

1984-07-01

The multivariate statistical techniques of correlation coefficients, factor analysis, and cluster analysis, implemented by computer programs, can be used to process a large data set and produce a summary of relationships between variables and between samples. These techniques were used to find relationships for data on the inorganic constituents of US coals. Three hundred thirty-five whole-seam channel samples from six US coal provinces were analyzed for inorganic variables. After consideration of the attributes of data expressed on ash basis and whole-coal basis, it was decided to perform complete statistical analyses on both data sets. Thirty variables expressed on whole-coal basis and twenty-six variables expressed on ash basis were used. For each inorganic variable, a frequency distribution histogram and a set of summary statistics was produced. These were subdivided to reveal the manner in which concentrations of inorganic constituents vary between coal provinces and between coal regions. Data collected on 124 samples from three stratigraphic groups (Pottsville, Monongahela, Allegheny) in the Appalachian region were studied using analysis of variance to determine degree of variability between stratigraphic levels. Most variables showed differences in mean values between the three groups. 193 references, 71 figures, 54 tables.

Measurement-Device Independency Analysis of Continuous-Variable Quantum Digital Signature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tao Shang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available With the practical implementation of continuous-variable quantum cryptographic protocols, security problems resulting from measurement-device loopholes are being given increasing attention. At present, research on measurement-device independency analysis is limited in quantum key distribution protocols, while there exist different security problems for different protocols. Considering the importance of quantum digital signature in quantum cryptography, in this paper, we attempt to analyze the measurement-device independency of continuous-variable quantum digital signature, especially continuous-variable quantum homomorphic signature. Firstly, we calculate the upper bound of the error rate of a protocol. If it is negligible on condition that all measurement devices are untrusted, the protocol is deemed to be measurement-device-independent. Then, we simplify the calculation by using the characteristics of continuous variables and prove the measurement-device independency of the protocol according to the calculation result. In addition, the proposed analysis method can be extended to other quantum cryptographic protocols besides continuous-variable quantum homomorphic signature.

Analysis of Dynamic Characteristics of Portal Frame with Variable Section

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hao Jianing

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Combined with a portal frame design, by the use of finite element software ANSYS, the finite element model of single specimens of portal rigid frame and the overall portal rigid frame building are established. portal rigid frame’s beam and column is variable cross section. Through the modal analysis, comparative analysis of the frequency and vibration type of the radiolabeling specimens and finite element model of the whole, for the further development of variable cross-section portal rigid frame of earthquake and wind vibration analysis lay the foundation.

Capturing heterogeneity in gene expression studies by surrogate variable analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeffrey T Leek

2007-09-01

Full Text Available It has unambiguously been shown that genetic, environmental, demographic, and technical factors may have substantial effects on gene expression levels. In addition to the measured variable(s of interest, there will tend to be sources of signal due to factors that are unknown, unmeasured, or too complicated to capture through simple models. We show that failing to incorporate these sources of heterogeneity into an analysis can have widespread and detrimental effects on the study. Not only can this reduce power or induce unwanted dependence across genes, but it can also introduce sources of spurious signal to many genes. This phenomenon is true even for well-designed, randomized studies. We introduce "surrogate variable analysis" (SVA to overcome the problems caused by heterogeneity in expression studies. SVA can be applied in conjunction with standard analysis techniques to accurately capture the relationship between expression and any modeled variables of interest. We apply SVA to disease class, time course, and genetics of gene expression studies. We show that SVA increases the biological accuracy and reproducibility of analyses in genome-wide expression studies.

Variability in surface infrared reflectance of thirteen nitrile rubber gloves at key wavelengths for analysis of captan.

Science.gov (United States)

Phalen, R N; Que Hee, Shane S

2007-02-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the surface variability of 13 powder-free, unlined, and unsupported nitrile rubber gloves using attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FT-IR) spectrophotometry at key wavelengths for analysis of captan contamination. The within-glove, within-lot, and between-lot variability was measured at 740, 1124, 1252, and 1735 cm(-1), the characteristic captan reflectance minima wavelengths. Three glove brands were assessed after conditioning overnight at relative humidity (RH) values ranging from 2 +/- 1 to 87 +/- 4% and temperatures ranging from -8.6 +/- 0.7 to 59.2 +/- 0.9 degrees C. For all gloves, 1735 cm(-1) provided the lowest background absorbance and greatest potential sensitivity for captan analysis on the outer glove surface: absorbances ranged from 0.0074 +/- 0.0005 (Microflex) to 0.0195 +/- 0.0024 (SafeSkin); average within-glove coefficients of variation (CV) ranged from 2.7% (Best, range 0.9-5.3%) to 10% (SafeSkin, 1.2-17%); within-glove CVs greater than 10% were for one brand (SafeSkin); within-lot CVs ranged from 2.8% (Best N-Dex) to 28% (SafeSkin Blue); and between-lot variation was statistically significant (p < or = 0.05) for all but two SafeSkin lots. The RH had variable effects dependent on wavelength, being minimal at 1735, 1252, and 1124 cm(-1) and highest at 3430 cm(-1) (O-H stretch region). There was no significant effect of temperature conditioning. Substantial within-glove, within-lot, and between-lot variability was observed. Thus, surface analysis using ATR-FT-IR must treat glove brands and lots as different. ATR-FT-IR proved to be a useful real-time analytical tool for measuring glove variability, detecting surface humidity effects, and choosing selective and sensitive wavelengths for analysis of nonvolatile surface contaminants.

The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - Observing and Understanding Processes Affecting the Propagation of Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Maritime Continent Region

Science.gov (United States)

Lucas, S. E.

2017-12-01

The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International and U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR/US CLIVAR) Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within NOAA's Climate Program Office (http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP). In 2017, the CVP Program had a call for proposals focused on observing and understanding processes affecting the propagation of intraseasonal oscillations in the Maritime Continent region. This poster will present the recently funded CVP projects, the expected scientific outcomes, the geographic areas of their work in the Maritime Continent region, and the collaborations with the Office of Naval Research, Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) and other partners.

Multiannual runoff variability in the upper Danube region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pekarova, P.

2009-05-01

The development of mankind has depended on availability of water resources. Already the first agricultural civilizations noticed the temporal variability of water resources and oscillation of the multi-annual dry and wet periods. The presented thesis summarizes results of more than fifteen years research activities of the author in the field of long-term runoff prediction. Statistical analysis of the runoff oscillations depends on availability of long time series of data. Systematic measurements of discharge in modern era started relatively late. The longest time series are available in Europe, but they do not exceed 200 years. Such long series are exceptional and in most parts of the world only much shorter series exist. Since studies dealing with the natural runoff oscillation and NAO phenomenon recently absent in Slovakia, there is the one aim of the thesis to fill in the gap in the long-term runoff fluctuation analysis and long-term discharge prediction methods development. The thesis focuses on the natural runoff cyclicity identification. In stochastic models, the climate changes scenarios caused by atmosphere warming are not involved however the runoff tele-connection around the Earth is studied. Scientific objectives of the thesis: 1. To reconstruct the Danube daily discharge series at Bratislava (1876-1890) based upon the Bratislava gauge daily water level observations; 2. to analyze variability and long term trends of the selected discharge Danube series characteristics for its Bratislava gauge; 3. to propose and develop the combined periodogram method for more exact spectral density identification in discharge time series; to analyze trends and periodicity in discharge long term series; to identify occurrence of the wet and dry periods over the world, to identify the influence of the NAO/AO/ENSO/QBO phenomena and the Sun activity on the runoff variability. 4. to present some long term stochastic prediction methods; to use two of them, the classical

Understanding Short-Term Nonmigrating Tidal Variability in the Ionospheric Dynamo Region from SABER Using Information Theory and Bayesian Statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Kumari, K.; Oberheide, J.

2017-12-01

Nonmigrating tidal diagnostics of SABER temperature observations in the ionospheric dynamo region reveal a large amount of variability on time-scales of a few days to weeks. In this paper, we discuss the physical reasons for the observed short-term tidal variability using a novel approach based on Information theory and Bayesian statistics. We diagnose short-term tidal variability as a function of season, QBO, ENSO, and solar cycle and other drivers using time dependent probability density functions, Shannon entropy and Kullback-Leibler divergence. The statistical significance of the approach and its predictive capability is exemplified using SABER tidal diagnostics with emphasis on the responses to the QBO and solar cycle. Implications for F-region plasma density will be discussed.

Understanding resilience of pastoralists to climate change and variability in the Southern Afar Region, Ethiopia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muluken Mekuyie

Full Text Available Change in climate and climate extremes are acknowledged as a vital challenge to pastoral production systems. Alternative systems that are accessible to a household in order to make a living could determine the household’s resilience at a given point in time. This study was conducted in the Southern Afar region in Ethiopia to understand the resilience of pastoralists to climate change and variability. A household questionnaire survey and focus group discussions were employed to collect primary data at household level. A total of 250 pastoral households were sampled using stratified random sampling. The data obtained were analysed using descriptive statistics and principal component analysis. The resilience of households to climate shocks and stresses was determined using a two-step modelling approach by clustering households into livelihood groups, gender and districts. The results indicated that agro-pastoral households were more resilient than pastoralists to climate-induced shock. Furthermore, households in the Gewane district were more resilient than those in the Amibara district. Female-headed households were less resilient than male-headed households. Enhancing livestock assets and productivity, social safety nets, access to market, credit, extension services and education, improving irrigation crop farming, and providing farm inputs significantly enhanced the resilience of pastoralists to climate change and variability. Keywords: Asset, Livelihood, Climate shock, Pastoralist, Resilience

Genetic variability and population structure of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations from different malaria ecological regions of Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Ingasia, Luicer A; Cheruiyot, Jelagat; Okoth, Sheila Akinyi; Andagalu, Ben; Kamau, Edwin

2016-04-01

Transmission intensity, movement of human and vector hosts, biogeographical features, and malaria control measures are some of the important factors that determine Plasmodium falciparum parasite genetic variability and population structure. Kenya has different malaria ecologies which might require different disease intervention methods. Refined parasite population genetic studies are critical for informing malaria control and elimination strategies. This study describes the genetic diversity and population structure of P. falciparum parasites from the different malaria ecological zones in Kenya. Twelve multi-locus microsatellite (MS) loci previously described were genotyped in 225 P. falciparum isolates collected between 2012 and 2013 from five sites; three in lowland endemic regions (Kisumu, Kombewa, and Malindi) and two in highland, epidemic regions (Kisii and Kericho). Parasites from the lowland endemic and highland epidemic regions of western Kenya had high genetic diversity compared to coastal lowland endemic region of Kenya [Malindi]. The Kenyan parasites had a mean genetic differentiation index (FST) of 0.072 (p=0.011). The multi-locus genetic analysis of the 12 MS revealed all the parasites had unique haplotypes. Significant linkage disequilibrium (LD) was observed in all the five parasite populations. Kisumu had the most significant index of association values (0.16; pKenya after introduction of the artemether-lumefantrine is important in refining the spread of drug resistant strains and malaria transmission for more effective control and eventual elimination of malaria in Kenya. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Regional regression models of percentile flows for the contiguous United States: Expert versus data-driven independent variable selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Geoffrey Fouad

2018-06-01

New hydrological insights for the region: A set of three variables selected based on an expert assessment of factors that influence percentile flows performed similarly to larger sets of variables selected using a data-driven method. Expert assessment variables included mean annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and baseflow index. Larger sets of up to 37 variables contributed little, if any, additional predictive information. Variables used to describe the distribution of basin data (e.g. standard deviation were not useful, and average values were sufficient to characterize physical and climatic basin conditions. Effectiveness of the expert assessment variables may be due to the high degree of multicollinearity (i.e. cross-correlation among additional variables. A tool is provided in the Supplementary material to predict percentile flows based on the three expert assessment variables. Future work should develop new variables with a strong understanding of the processes related to percentile flows.

Regional intensity-duration-frequency analysis in the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey, by using L-moments and regression analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Ghiaei, Farhad; Kankal, Murat; Anilan, Tugce; Yuksek, Omer

2018-01-01

The analysis of rainfall frequency is an important step in hydrology and water resources engineering. However, a lack of measuring stations, short duration of statistical periods, and unreliable outliers are among the most important problems when designing hydrology projects. In this study, regional rainfall analysis based on L-moments was used to overcome these problems in the Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB) of Turkey. The L-moments technique was applied at all stages of the regional analysis, including determining homogeneous regions, in addition to fitting and estimating parameters from appropriate distribution functions in each homogeneous region. We studied annual maximum rainfall height values of various durations (5 min to 24 h) from seven rain gauge stations located in the EBSB in Turkey, which have gauging periods of 39 to 70 years. Homogeneity of the region was evaluated by using L-moments. The goodness-of-fit criterion for each distribution was defined as the ZDIST statistics, depending on various distributions, including generalized logistic (GLO), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized normal (GNO), Pearson type 3 (PE3), and generalized Pareto (GPA). GLO and GEV determined the best distributions for short (5 to 30 min) and long (1 to 24 h) period data, respectively. Based on the distribution functions, the governing equations were extracted for calculation of intensities of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years return periods (T). Subsequently, the T values for different rainfall intensities were estimated using data quantifying maximum amount of rainfall at different times. Using these T values, duration, altitude, latitude, and longitude values were used as independent variables in a regression model of the data. The determination coefficient ( R 2) value indicated that the model yields suitable results for the regional relationship of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF), which is necessary for the design of hydraulic structures in small and

Tree-ring analysis of winter climate variability and ENSO in Mediterranean California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woodhouse, C.A.; Univ. of Colorado, Boulder

2006-01-01

The feasibility of using tree-ring data as a proxy for regional precipitation and ENSO events in the Mediterranean region of California is explored. A transect of moisture-sensitive tree-ring sites, extending from southwestern to north-central California, documents regional patterns of winter precipitation and replicates the regional response to ENSO events in the 20. century. Proxy records of ENSO were used with the tree-ring data to examine precipitation/ENSO patterns in the 18. and 19. centuries. Results suggest some temporal and spatial variability in the regional precipitation response to ENSO over the last three centuries

Functional interpretation of representative soil spatial-temporal variability at the Central region of European territory of Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Vasenev, I.

2012-04-01

The essential spatial and temporal variability is mutual feature for most natural and man-changed soils at the Central region of European territory of Russia. The original spatial heterogeneity of forest and forest-steppe soils has been further complicated by a specific land-use history and different-direction soil successions due to environmental changes and human impacts. For demand-driven land-use planning and decision making the quantitative analysis, modeling and functional-ecological interpretation of representative soil cover patterns spatial variability is an important and challenging task that receives increasing attention from scientific society, private companies, governmental and environmental bodies. On basis of long-term different-scale soil mapping, key plot investigation, land quality and land-use evaluation, soil forming and degradation processes modeling, functional-ecological typology of the zonal set of elementary soil cover patterns (ESCP) has been done in representative natural and man transformed ecosystems of the forest, forest-steppe and steppe zones at the Central region of European territory of Russia (ETR). The validation and ranging of the limiting factors of functional quality and ecological state have been made for dominating and most dynamical components of ESCP regional-typological forms - with application of local GIS, traditional regression kriging and correlation tree models. Development, zonal-regional differentiation and verification of the basic set of criteria and algorithms for logically formalized distinguishing of the most "stable" & "hot" areas in soil cover patterns make it possible for quantitative assessment of dominating in them elementary landscape, soil-forming and degradation processes. The received data essentially expand known ranges of the soil forming processes (SFP) rate «in situ». In case of mature forests mutual for them the windthrow impacts and lateral processes make SFPs more active and complex both in

An Analysis of the Interactive Effects of Demographic Variables on ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study investigated the influence of two environmental variables (social density and overcrowding) on students' learning and academic performance in selected Nigerian Universities. 150 undergraduates drawn from two universities within the middle belt region of Nigeria made up of 90 males and 60 females responded ...

Hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions and quality of primary care: their relation with socioeconomic and health care variables in the Madrid regional health service (Spain).

Science.gov (United States)

Magán, Purificación; Alberquilla, Angel; Otero, Angel; Ribera, José Manuel

2011-01-01

Hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSH) have been proposed as an indirect indicator of the effectiveness and quality of care provided by primary health care. To investigate the association of ACSH rates with population socioeconomic factors and with characteristics of primary health care. Cross-sectional, ecologic study. Using hospital discharge data, ACSH were selected from the list of conditions validated for Spain. All 34 health districts in the Region of Madrid, Spain. Individuals aged 65 years or older residing in the region of Madrid between 2001 and 2003, inclusive. Age- and gender-adjusted ACSH rates in each health district. The adjusted ACSH rate per 1000 population was 35.37 in men and 20.45 in women. In the Poisson regression analysis, an inverse relation was seen between ACSH rates and the socioeconomic variables. Physician workload was the only health care variable with a statistically significant relation (rate ratio of 1.066 [95% CI; 1.041-1.091]). These results were similar in the analyses disaggregated by gender. In the multivariate analyses that included health care variables, none of the health care variables were statistically significant. ACSH may be more closely related with socioeconomic variables than with characteristics of primary care activity. Therefore, other factors outside the health system must be considered to improve health outcomes in the population.

A new approach in space-time analysis of multivariate hydrological data: Application to Brazil's Nordeste region rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Sicard, Emeline; Sabatier, Robert; Niel, HéLèNe; Cadier, Eric

2002-12-01

The objective of this paper is to implement an original method for spatial and multivariate data, combining a method of three-way array analysis (STATIS) with geostatistical tools. The variables of interest are the monthly amounts of rainfall in the Nordeste region of Brazil, recorded from 1937 to 1975. The principle of the technique is the calculation of a linear combination of the initial variables, containing a large part of the initial variability and taking into account the spatial dependencies. It is a promising method that is able to analyze triple variability: spatial, seasonal, and interannual. In our case, the first component obtained discriminates a group of rain gauges, corresponding approximately to the Agreste, from all the others. The monthly variables of July and August strongly influence this separation. Furthermore, an annual study brings out the stability of the spatial structure of components calculated for each year.

Regional Determinants of Foreign Direct Investments in Croatia

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Ines KERSAN-ŠKABIĆ

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to identify the factors that infuence the unequal distribution of FDI infows and that foreign investors identify as signifcant in making investment decisions regarding Croatian regions. Panel data analysis was applied: static (random effects and dynam-ic analysis. The results show that positive and signifcant infuences on FDI have: education, infrastructure, the manufacturing industry, dum-my variables for areas of special state concern and capital city region, while negative statistically signifcant infuences are: unemployment and dummy variable for border regions with the EU. The basic conclusion is that FDI infows follow the development path of the Croatian regions (with the highlighted agglomeration effect and that efforts in creating preconditions for econom-ic growth will, at the same time, have an impact on attractiveness of a particular region for foreign investments.

Climate related diseases. Current regional variability and projections to the year 2100

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Błażejczyk Krzysztof

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The health of individuals and societies depends on different factors including atmospheric conditions which influence humans in direct and indirect ways. The paper presents regional variability of some climate related diseases (CRD in Poland: salmonellosis intoxications, Lyme boreliosis, skin cancers (morbidity and mortality, influenza, overcooling deaths, as well as respiratory and circulatory mortality. The research consisted of two stages: 1 statistical modelling basing on past data and 2 projections of CRD for three SRES scenarios of climate change (A1B, A2, B1 to the year 2100. Several simple and multiply regression models were found for the relationships between climate variables and CRD. The models were applied to project future levels of CRD. At the end of 21st century we must expect increase in: circulatory mortality, Lyme boreliosis infections and skin cancer morbidity and mortality. There is also projected decrease in: respiratory mortality, overcooling deaths and influenza infections.

Analysis of Dynamic Characteristics of Portal Frame with Variable Section

OpenAIRE

Hao Jianing

2016-01-01

Combined with a portal frame design, by the use of finite element software ANSYS, the finite element model of single specimens of portal rigid frame and the overall portal rigid frame building are established. portal rigid frame’s beam and column is variable cross section. Through the modal analysis, comparative analysis of the frequency and vibration type of the radiolabeling specimens and finite element model of the whole, for the further development of variable cross-section portal rigid f...

Collaborative Research: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gutowski, William J. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

2017-12-28

This project developed and applied a regional Arctic System model for enhanced decadal predictions. It built on successful research by four of the current PIs with support from the DOE Climate Change Prediction Program, which has resulted in the development of a fully coupled Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM) consisting of atmosphere, land-hydrology, ocean and sea ice components. An expanded RACM, a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), has been set up to include ice sheets, ice caps, mountain glaciers, and dynamic vegetation to allow investigation of coupled physical processes responsible for decadal-scale climate change and variability in the Arctic. RASM can have high spatial resolution (~4-20 times higher than currently practical in global models) to advance modeling of critical processes and determine the need for their explicit representation in Global Earth System Models (GESMs). The pan-Arctic region is a key indicator of the state of global climate through polar amplification. However, a system-level understanding of critical arctic processes and feedbacks needs further development. Rapid climate change has occurred in a number of Arctic System components during the past few decades, including retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, increased surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet, acceleration and thinning of outlet glaciers, reduced snow cover, thawing permafrost, and shifts in vegetation. Such changes could have significant ramifications for global sea level, the ocean thermohaline circulation and heat budget, ecosystems, native communities, natural resource exploration, and commercial transportation. The overarching goal of the RASM project has been to advance understanding of past and present states of arctic climate and to improve seasonal to decadal predictions. To do this the project has focused on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The three foci of this research are: - Changes

Variability of Mediterranean aerosols properties at three regional background sites in the western Mediterranean Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Sicard, Michaël.; Totems, Julien; Barragan, Rubén.; Dulac, François; Mallet, Marc; Comerón, Adolfo; Alados-Arboledas, Lucas; Augustin, Patrick; Chazette, Patrick; Léon, Jean-François; Olmo-Reyes, Francisco José; Renard, Jean-Baptiste; Rocadenbosch, Francesc

2014-10-01

In the framework of the project ChArMEx (the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment, http://charmex.lsce.ipsl.fr/), the variability of aerosol optical, microphysical and radiative properties is examined in three regional background sites on a southwest - northeast (SW-NE) straight line in the middle of the western Mediterranean Basin (WMB). The three sites are on the northward transport pathway of African dust: - Ersa, Corsica Island, France (43.00ºN, 9.36ºW, 80 m a.s.l), - Palma de Mallorca, Mallorca Island, Spain (39.55ºN, 2.62ºE, 10 m a.s.l) and - Alborán, Alboran Island, Spain (35.94ºN, 3.04ºW, 15 m a.s.l). AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) sun-photometer products are mainly used. A preliminary analysis shows that at Ersa and Palma sites the annual aerosol optical depth (AOD) has a similar trend with a peak around 0.2 in July. The winter/spring AOD is lower in Palma than in Ersa, while it is reverse in summer/autumn. The aerosol particle size distribution (and the coarse mode fraction) shows clearly the SW-NE gradient with a decreasing coarse mode peak (and a decreasing coarse mode fraction from 0.5 - 0.35 - 0.2 in July) along the axis Alborán - Palma de Mallorca - Ersa. In addition to the seasonal and annual variability analysis, the analysis of AERONET products is completed with a large variety of ground-based and sounding balloons remote sensing and in situ instruments during the Special Observation Period (SOP) of the ADRIMED campaign in June 2013. The second part of the presentation will focus on the comparison of the observations at Palma de Mallorca and Ersa of the same long-range transported airmasses. The observations include lidar vertical profiles, balloon borne OPC (Optical Particle Counter) and MSG/SEVIRI AOD, among others.

The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deque, M.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Sanchez-Gomez, E. [Cerfacs/CNRS, SUC URA1875, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Goodess, C.M. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom); Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Lenderink, G. [KNMI, Postbus 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Christensen, O.B. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen Oe (Denmark)

2012-03-15

Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES. The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021-2050 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM x GCM matrix. The first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region, being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021-2050 response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071-2100 in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty

THE RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF EXISTING REINFORCED CONCRETE PILES IN PERMAFROST REGIONS

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Vladimir S. Utkin

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The article describes the general problem of safe operation of buildings and structures with the dynamics of permafrost in Russia and other countries. The global warming on Earth will lead to global disasters such as failures of buildings and structures. The main reason of these failures will be a reduction of bearing capacity and the reliability of foundations. It is necessary to organize the observations (monitoring for the process of reducing the bearing capacity of foundations to prevent such accidents and reduce negative consequences, to development of preventive measures and operational methods for the piles reliability analysis. The main load-bearing elements of the foundation are reinforced concrete piles and frozen ground. Reinforced concrete piles have a tendency to decrease the bearing capacity and reliability of the upper (aerial part and the part in the soil. The article discusses the problem of reliability analysis of existing reinforced concrete piles in upper part in permafrost regions by the reason of pile degradation in the contact zone of seasonal thawing and freezing soil. The evaluation of the probability of failure is important in itself, but also it important for the reliability of foundation: consisting of piles and frozen soil. Authors offers the methods for reliability analysis of upper part of reinforced concrete piles in the contact zone with seasonally thawed soil under different number of random variables (fuzzy variables in the design mathematical model of a limit state by the strength criterion.

Conserved variable analysis of the marine boundary layer and air

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The present study is based on the observed features of the MBL (Marine Boundary Layer) during the Bay of Bengal and Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) - Pilot phase. Conserved Variable Analysis (CVA) of the conserved variables such as potential temperature, virtual potential temperature, equivalent potential temperature ...

Sensitivity Analysis of Weather Variables on Offsite Consequence Analysis Tools in South Korea and the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Min-Uk Kim

2018-05-01

Full Text Available We studied sensitive weather variables for consequence analysis, in the case of chemical leaks on the user side of offsite consequence analysis (OCA tools. We used OCA tools Korea Offsite Risk Assessment (KORA and Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA in South Korea and the United States, respectively. The chemicals used for this analysis were 28% ammonia (NH3, 35% hydrogen chloride (HCl, 50% hydrofluoric acid (HF, and 69% nitric acid (HNO3. The accident scenarios were based on leakage accidents in storage tanks. The weather variables were air temperature, wind speed, humidity, and atmospheric stability. Sensitivity analysis was performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS program for dummy regression analysis. Sensitivity analysis showed that impact distance was not sensitive to humidity. Impact distance was most sensitive to atmospheric stability, and was also more sensitive to air temperature than wind speed, according to both the KORA and ALOHA tools. Moreover, the weather variables were more sensitive in rural conditions than in urban conditions, with the ALOHA tool being more influenced by weather variables than the KORA tool. Therefore, if using the ALOHA tool instead of the KORA tool in rural conditions, users should be careful not to cause any differences in impact distance due to input errors of weather variables, with the most sensitive one being atmospheric stability.

Sensitivity Analysis of Weather Variables on Offsite Consequence Analysis Tools in South Korea and the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Min-Uk; Moon, Kyong Whan; Sohn, Jong-Ryeul; Byeon, Sang-Hoon

2018-05-18

We studied sensitive weather variables for consequence analysis, in the case of chemical leaks on the user side of offsite consequence analysis (OCA) tools. We used OCA tools Korea Offsite Risk Assessment (KORA) and Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA) in South Korea and the United States, respectively. The chemicals used for this analysis were 28% ammonia (NH₃), 35% hydrogen chloride (HCl), 50% hydrofluoric acid (HF), and 69% nitric acid (HNO₃). The accident scenarios were based on leakage accidents in storage tanks. The weather variables were air temperature, wind speed, humidity, and atmospheric stability. Sensitivity analysis was performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) program for dummy regression analysis. Sensitivity analysis showed that impact distance was not sensitive to humidity. Impact distance was most sensitive to atmospheric stability, and was also more sensitive to air temperature than wind speed, according to both the KORA and ALOHA tools. Moreover, the weather variables were more sensitive in rural conditions than in urban conditions, with the ALOHA tool being more influenced by weather variables than the KORA tool. Therefore, if using the ALOHA tool instead of the KORA tool in rural conditions, users should be careful not to cause any differences in impact distance due to input errors of weather variables, with the most sensitive one being atmospheric stability.

Phase Variability of the Recent Climate in the North Atlantic Region

Science.gov (United States)

Serykh, Ilya; Anisimov, Mikhail; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Romanov, Juri; Sidorova, Alexandra

2014-05-01

The atmospheric pressure and near-surface temperature differences between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low for the period of 1900-2012 within the spatial-temporal average-out (20º latitude, 20º longitude and 12 years) were considered. The secular term of phase states of the system under consideration was found to divide into three non-intersecting subsets. Each of that was put in consequence with one of three climatic scenarios related to the periods of 1905-1935 (relatively warm phase), 1940-1970 (colder phase) and 1980-2000 (warmer phase). A life time of such a scenario lasted about 20-35 years, and the transition from one scenario to another covered 4-6 years, i.e. it run comparatively quickly. The revealed non-overlapping sub-aggregates of the thermodynamic indices related to each particular climate scenario gave an idea to follow the circulation peculiarities and the interrelated temperature differences within the limits of the Northern Atlantic ocean-atmosphere regional system. The results of this analysis bear evidence that the most probable intermittent strengthening and weakening of Hadley and Ferrell circulations occurred there in coincided phase. The analogous character of the climate system behavior was also detected in some other regional atmospheric activity centers that can be considered as a witness on the global nature of the detected phase type of modern climate inter-decadal variability. Hence, we have the grounds to suppose that mentioned above the short-period inter-decadal excitations of the modern climate have a global nature and appears everywhere. Finally, the attention was paid to the fact that at the early XXI century the thermodynamic state of the Northern Atlantic regional climate system has shown a tendency to face towards the situation, similar to the cooler scenario of the 1940-1970. We used the heat content of upper 700m Atlantic Ocean layer data from NODC to calculate its anomalies for the periods of 1955-1970, 1980-2000 and

Analysis of the variability of extra-tropical cyclones at the regional scale for the coasts of Northern Germany and investigation of their coastal impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Schaaf, Benjamin; Feser, Frauke

2015-04-01

The evaluation of long-term changes in wind speeds is very important for the coastal areas and the protection measures. Therefor the wind variability at the regional scale for the coast of Northern Germany shall be analysed. In order to derive changes in storminess it is essential to analyse long, homogeneous meteorological time series. Wind measurements often suffer from inconsistencies which arise from changes in instrumentation, observation method, or station location. Reanalysis data take into account such inhomogeneities of observation data and convert these measurements into a consistent, gridded data set with the same grid spacing and time intervals. This leads to a smooth, homogeneous data set, but with relatively low resolution (about 210 km for the longest reanalysis data set, the NCEP reanalysis starting in 1948). Therefore a high-resolution regional atmospheric model will be used to bring these reanalyses to a higher resolution, using in addition to a dynamical downscaling approach the spectral nudging technique. This method 'nudges' the large spatial scales of the regional climate model towards the reanalysis, while the smaller spatial scales are left unchanged. It was applied successfully in a number of applications, leading to realistic atmospheric weather descriptions of the past. With the regional climate model COSMO-CLM a very high-resolution data set was calculated for the last 67 years, the period from 1948 until now. The model area is North Germany with the coastal area of the North sea and parts of the Baltic sea. This is one of the first model simulations on climate scale with a very high resolution of 2.8 km, so even small scale effects can be detected. With this hindcast-simulation there are numerous options of evaluation. One can create wind climatologies for regional areas such as for the metropolitan region of Hamburg. Otherwise one can investigate individual storms in a case study. With a filtering and tracking program the course of

Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Schroeer, K.; Kirchengast, G.

2018-06-01

Potential increases in extreme rainfall induced hazards in a warming climate have motivated studies to link precipitation intensities to temperature. Increases exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate of 6-7%/°C-1 are seen in short-duration, convective, high-percentile rainfall at mid latitudes, but the rates of change cease or revert at regionally variable threshold temperatures due to moisture limitations. It is unclear, however, what these findings mean in term of the actual risk of extreme precipitation on a regional to local scale. When conditioning precipitation intensities on local temperatures, key influences on the scaling relationship such as from the annual cycle and regional weather patterns need better understanding. Here we analyze these influences, using sub-hourly to daily precipitation data from a dense network of 189 stations in south-eastern Austria. We find that the temperature sensitivities in the mountainous western region are lower than in the eastern lowlands. This is due to the different weather patterns that cause extreme precipitation in these regions. Sub-hourly and hourly intensities intensify at super-CC and CC-rates, respectively, up to temperatures of about 17 °C. However, we also find that, because of the regional and seasonal variability of the precipitation intensities, a smaller scaling factor can imply a larger absolute change in intensity. Our insights underline that temperature precipitation scaling requires careful interpretation of the intent and setting of the study. When this is considered, conditional scaling factors can help to better understand which influences control the intensification of rainfall with temperature on a regional scale.

Variability Bugs in Highly Configurable Systems: A Qualitative Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abal, Iago; Melo, Jean; Stanciulescu, Stefan

2018-01-01

Variability-sensitive verification pursues effective analysis of the exponentially many variants in number of features of a program family. Several variability-aware techniques have been proposed, but researchers still lack examples of concrete bugs induced by variability, occurring in real large......-scale systems. A collection of real world bugs is needed to evaluate tool implementations of variability-sensitive analyses by testing them on real bugs. We present a qualitative study of 98 diverse variability bugs collected from bug-fixing commits in the Apache, BusyBox, Linux kernel and Marlin repositories....... We analyze each of the bugs, and record the results in a database. For each bug, we create a self-contained simplified C99 version and a simplified patch, in order to help researchers who are not experts on these subject studies to understand them, so that they can use it for evaluation...

Atmospheric forcing of decadal Baltic Sea level variability in the last 200 years. A statistical analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huenicke, B. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung

2008-11-06

This study aims at the estimation of the impact of different atmospheric factors on the past sealevel variations (up to 200 years) in the Baltic Sea by statistically analysing the relationship between Baltic Sea level records and observational and proxy-based reconstructed climatic data sets. The focus lies on the identification and possible quantification of the contribution of sealevel pressure (wind), air-temperature and precipitation to the low-frequency (decadal and multi-decadal) variability of Baltic Sea level. It is known that the wind forcing is the main factor explaining average Baltic Sea level variability at inter-annual to decadal timescales, especially in wintertime. In this thesis it is statistically estimated to what extent other regional climate factors contribute to the spatially heterogeneous Baltic Sea level variations around the isostatic trend at multi-decadal timescales. Although the statistical analysis cannot be completely conclusive, as the potential climate drivers are all statistically interrelated to some degree, the results indicate that precipitation should be taken into account as an explanatory variable for sea-level variations. On the one hand it has been detected that the amplitude of the annual cycle of Baltic Sea level has increased throughout the 20th century and precipitation seems to be the only factor among those analysed (wind through SLP field, barometric effect, temperature and precipitation) that can account for this evolution. On the other hand, precipitation increases the ability to hindcast inter-annual variations of sea level in some regions and seasons, especially in the Southern Baltic in summertime. The mechanism by which precipitation exerts its influence on Baltic Sea level is not ascertained in this statistical analysis due to the lack of long salinity time series. This result, however, represents a working hypothesis that can be confirmed or disproved by long simulations of the Baltic Sea system - ocean

Combining remote sensing and household level data for regional scale analysis of land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Souza Soler, L.; Verburg, P.H.

2010-01-01

Land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon depends on the spatial variability of political, socioeconomic and biophysical factors, as well as on the land use history and its actors. A regional scale analysis was made in Rondônia State to identify possible differences in land cover change connected to

Mapping extreme rainfall in the Northwest Portugal region: statistical analysis and spatial modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Monica; Fragoso, Marcelo

2010-05-01

Extreme precipitation events are one of the causes of natural hazards, such as floods and landslides, making its investigation so important, and this research aims to contribute to the study of the extreme rainfall patterns in a Portuguese mountainous area. The study area is centred on the Arcos de Valdevez county, located in the northwest region of Portugal, the rainiest of the country, with more than 3000 mm of annual rainfall at the Peneda-Gerês mountain system. This work focus on two main subjects related with the precipitation variability on the study area. First, a statistical analysis of several precipitation parameters is carried out, using daily data from 17 rain-gauges with a complete record for the 1960-1995 period. This approach aims to evaluate the main spatial contrasts regarding different aspects of the rainfall regime, described by ten parameters and indices of precipitation extremes (e.g. mean annual precipitation, the annual frequency of precipitation days, wet spells durations, maximum daily precipitation, maximum of precipitation in 30 days, number of days with rainfall exceeding 100 mm and estimated maximum daily rainfall for a return period of 100 years). The results show that the highest precipitation amounts (from annual to daily scales) and the higher frequency of very abundant rainfall events occur in the Serra da Peneda and Gerês mountains, opposing to the valleys of the Lima, Minho and Vez rivers, with lower precipitation amounts and less frequent heavy storms. The second purpose of this work is to find a method of mapping extreme rainfall in this mountainous region, investigating the complex influence of the relief (e.g. elevation, topography) on the precipitation patterns, as well others geographical variables (e.g. distance from coast, latitude), applying tested geo-statistical techniques (Goovaerts, 2000; Diodato, 2005). Models of linear regression were applied to evaluate the influence of different geographical variables (altitude

Photospheric Magnetic Field Properties of Flaring versus Flare-quiet Active Regions. II. Discriminant Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Leka, K. D.; Barnes, G.

2003-10-01

We apply statistical tests based on discriminant analysis to the wide range of photospheric magnetic parameters described in a companion paper by Leka & Barnes, with the goal of identifying those properties that are important for the production of energetic events such as solar flares. The photospheric vector magnetic field data from the University of Hawai'i Imaging Vector Magnetograph are well sampled both temporally and spatially, and we include here data covering 24 flare-event and flare-quiet epochs taken from seven active regions. The mean value and rate of change of each magnetic parameter are treated as separate variables, thus evaluating both the parameter's state and its evolution, to determine which properties are associated with flaring. Considering single variables first, Hotelling's T2-tests show small statistical differences between flare-producing and flare-quiet epochs. Even pairs of variables considered simultaneously, which do show a statistical difference for a number of properties, have high error rates, implying a large degree of overlap of the samples. To better distinguish between flare-producing and flare-quiet populations, larger numbers of variables are simultaneously considered; lower error rates result, but no unique combination of variables is clearly the best discriminator. The sample size is too small to directly compare the predictive power of large numbers of variables simultaneously. Instead, we rank all possible four-variable permutations based on Hotelling's T2-test and look for the most frequently appearing variables in the best permutations, with the interpretation that they are most likely to be associated with flaring. These variables include an increasing kurtosis of the twist parameter and a larger standard deviation of the twist parameter, but a smaller standard deviation of the distribution of the horizontal shear angle and a horizontal field that has a smaller standard deviation but a larger kurtosis. To support the

Climate and climate variability of the wind power resources in the Great Lakes region of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

X. Li; S. Zhong; X. Bian; W.E. Heilman

2010-01-01

The climate and climate variability of low-level winds over the Great Lakes region of the United States is examined using 30 year (1979-2008) wind records from the recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), a three-dimensional, high-spatial and temporal resolution, and dynamically consistent climate data set. The analyses focus on spatial distribution...

Using non-systematic surveys to investigate effects of regional climate variability on Australasian gannets in the Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Srinivasan, Mridula; Dassis, Mariela; Benn, Emily; Stockin, Karen A.; Martinez, Emmanuelle; Machovsky-Capuska, Gabriel E.

2015-05-01

Few studies have investigated regional and natural climate variability on seabird populations using ocean reanalysis datasets (e.g. Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA)) that integrate atmospheric information to supplement ocean observations and provide improved estimates of ocean conditions. Herein we use a non-systematic dataset on Australasian gannets (Morus serrator) from 2001 to 2009 to identify potential connections between Gannet Sightings Per Unit Effort (GSPUE) and climate and oceanographic variability in a region of known importance for breeding seabirds, the Hauraki Gulf (HG), New Zealand. While no statistically significant relationships between GSPUE and global climate indices were determined, there was a significant correlation between GSPUE and regional SST anomaly for HG. Also, there appears to be a strong link between global climate indices and regional climate in the HG. Further, based on cross-correlation function coefficients and lagged multiple regression models, we identified potential leading and lagging climate variables, and climate variables but with limited predictive capacity in forecasting future GSPUE. Despite significant inter-annual variability and marginally cooler SSTs since 2001, gannet sightings appear to be increasing. We hypothesize that at present underlying physical changes in the marine ecosystem may be insufficient to affect supply of preferred gannet main prey (pilchard Sardinops spp.), which tolerate a wide thermal range. Our study showcases the potential scientific value of lengthy non-systematic data streams and when designed properly (i.e., contain abundance, flock size, and spatial data), can yield useful information in climate impact studies on seabirds and other marine fauna. Such information can be invaluable for enhancing conservation measures for protected species in fiscally constrained research environments.

Representing major soil variability at regional scale by constrained Latin Hypercube Sampling of remote sensing data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mulder, V.L.; Bruin, de S.; Schaepman, M.E.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a sparse, remote sensing-based sampling approach making use of conditioned Latin Hypercube Sampling (cLHS) to assess variability in soil properties at regional scale. The method optimizes the sampling scheme for a defined spatial population based on selected covariates, which are

Increased topographical variability of task-related activation in perceptive and motor associative regions in adult autistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marie-Pier Poulin-Lord

2014-01-01

Conclusion: Different and possibly unique strategies are used by each autistic individual. That enhanced variability in localization of activations in the autistic group is found in regions typically more variable in non-autistics raises the possibility that autism involves an enhancement and/or an alteration of typical plasticity mechanisms. The current study also highlights the necessity to verify, in fMRI studies involving autistic people, that hypoactivation at the group level does not result from each individual successfully completing a task using a unique brain allocation, even by comparison to his own group.

Diversity of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi strains collected from india using variable number tandem repeat (VNTR)-PCR analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sankar, Sathish; Kuppanan, Suresh; Nandagopal, Balaji; Sridharan, Gopalan

2013-08-01

Typhoid fever is endemic in India, and a seasonal increase of cases is observed annually. In spite of effective therapies and the availability of vaccines, morbidity is widespread owing to the circulation of multiple genetic variants, frequent migration of asymptomatic carriers, unhygienic food practices and the emergence of multidrug resistance and thus continues to be a major public health problem in developing countries, particularly in India. Classical methods of strain typing such as pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, ribotyping, random amplification of polymorphic DNA and amplified fragment length polymorphism are either laborious and technically complicated or less discriminatory. We investigated the molecular diversity of Indian strains of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) isolated from humans from different parts of India to establish the molecular epidemiology of the organism using the variable number tandem repeat (VNTR)-PCR analysis. The electrophoretic band pattern was analysed using the GelCompar II software program. Of the 94 strains tested for three VNTRs loci, 75 VNTR genotypes were obtained. Of the three VNTRs tested in this study, VNTR1 was amplified in all the strains except one and found to be predominant. VNTR2 was amplified only in 57 strains with a Simpson diversity index of 0.93 indicating the high variability of this region within the strains. VNTR3 was amplified in 90 strains. The discriminatory power of this typing tool has been greatly enhanced by this VNTR2 region as the other two regions could not discriminate strains significantly. In our study, about 55 % of the strains amplified all three VNTR regions and 39 % of the strains lacked the VNTR2 region. Among the three VNTR regions tested, the majority of the strains produced similar banding pattern for any two regions grouped into a cluster. The strains grouped as a genotype were from the same geographical location. Strains collected from each geographical region were also

Siberian Regional Identity in the Context of Historical Consciousness (Content Analysis of Tomsk Regional Media

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A V Bocharov

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The article presents a model to study the Siberian regional identity in the context of historical consciousness, as well as the results of its practical application in the content analysis of the publications by the Tomsk regional media. On the basis of the content analysis procedures the author demonstrates how, through historical memory, the regional identity is formed and manifested in the regional media in various spheres of society.

Variability of the extent of the Hadley circulation in the southern hemisphere: a regional perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, H.; Hendon, H. H.; Lim, E.-P.; Boschat, G.; Maloney, E.; Timbal, B.

2018-01-01

In order to understand the regional impacts of variations in the extent of the Hadley circulation in the Southern Hemisphere, regional Hadley circulations are defined in three sectors centered on the main tropical heat sources over Africa, Asia-Pacific (Maritime Continent) and the Americas. These regional circulations are defined by computing a streamfunction from the divergent component of the meridional wind. A major finding from this study is that year-to-year variability in the extent of the hemispheric Hadley circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is primarily governed by variations of the extent of the Hadley circulation in the Asia-Pacific sector, especially during austral spring and summer when there is little co-variability with the African sector, and the American sector exhibits an out of phase behavior. An expanded Hadley circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (both hemispherically and in the Asia-Pacific sector) is associated with La Niña conditions and a poleward expansion of the tropical wet zone in the Asia-Pacific sector. While La Niña also promotes expansion in the American and African sectors during austral winter, these tropical conditions tend to promote contraction in the two sectors during austral summer as a result of compensating convergence over the Americas and Africa sectors: a process driven by variations in the Walker circulation and Rossby wave trains emanating from the tropical Indian Ocean.

Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

2013-12-01

Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for

Variability in large-scale wind power generation: Variability in large-scale wind power generation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kiviluoma, Juha [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo Finland; Holttinen, Hannele [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo Finland; Weir, David [Energy Department, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo Norway; Scharff, Richard [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Electric Power Systems, Stockholm Sweden; Söder, Lennart [Royal Institute of Technology, Electric Power Systems, Stockholm Sweden; Menemenlis, Nickie [Institut de recherche Hydro-Québec, Montreal Canada; Cutululis, Nicolaos A. [DTU, Wind Energy, Roskilde Denmark; Danti Lopez, Irene [Electricity Research Centre, University College Dublin, Dublin Ireland; Lannoye, Eamonn [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto California USA; Estanqueiro, Ana [LNEG, Laboratorio Nacional de Energia e Geologia, UESEO, Lisbon Spain; Gomez-Lazaro, Emilio [Renewable Energy Research Institute and DIEEAC/EDII-AB, Castilla-La Mancha University, Albacete Spain; Zhang, Qin [State Grid Corporation of China, Beijing China; Bai, Jianhua [State Grid Energy Research Institute Beijing, Beijing China; Wan, Yih-Huei [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Transmission and Grid Integration Group, Golden Colorado USA; Milligan, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Transmission and Grid Integration Group, Golden Colorado USA

2015-10-25

The paper demonstrates the characteristics of wind power variability and net load variability in multiple power systems based on real data from multiple years. Demonstrated characteristics include probability distribution for different ramp durations, seasonal and diurnal variability and low net load events. The comparison shows regions with low variability (Sweden, Spain and Germany), medium variability (Portugal, Ireland, Finland and Denmark) and regions with higher variability (Quebec, Bonneville Power Administration and Electric Reliability Council of Texas in North America; Gansu, Jilin and Liaoning in China; and Norway and offshore wind power in Denmark). For regions with low variability, the maximum 1 h wind ramps are below 10% of nominal capacity, and for regions with high variability, they may be close to 30%. Wind power variability is mainly explained by the extent of geographical spread, but also higher capacity factor causes higher variability. It was also shown how wind power ramps are autocorrelated and dependent on the operating output level. When wind power was concentrated in smaller area, there were outliers with high changes in wind output, which were not present in large areas with well-dispersed wind power.

A probabilistic method for streamflow projection and associated uncertainty analysis in a data sparse alpine region

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Weiwei; Yang, Tao; Shi, Pengfei; Xu, Chong-yu; Zhang, Ke; Zhou, Xudong; Shao, Quanxi; Ciais, Philippe

2018-06-01

Climate change imposes profound influence on regional hydrological cycle and water security in many alpine regions worldwide. Investigating regional climate impacts using watershed scale hydrological models requires a large number of input data such as topography, meteorological and hydrological data. However, data scarcity in alpine regions seriously restricts evaluation of climate change impacts on water cycle using conventional approaches based on global or regional climate models, statistical downscaling methods and hydrological models. Therefore, this study is dedicated to development of a probabilistic model to replace the conventional approaches for streamflow projection. The probabilistic model was built upon an advanced Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) approach directly fed by the large-scale climate predictor variables and tested in a typical data sparse alpine region, the Kaidu River basin in Central Asia. Results show that BNN model performs better than the general methods across a number of statistical measures. The BNN method with flexible model structures by active indicator functions, which reduce the dependence on the initial specification for the input variables and the number of hidden units, can work well in a data limited region. Moreover, it can provide more reliable streamflow projections with a robust generalization ability. Forced by the latest bias-corrected GCM scenarios, streamflow projections for the 21st century under three RCP emission pathways were constructed and analyzed. Briefly, the proposed probabilistic projection approach could improve runoff predictive ability over conventional methods and provide better support to water resources planning and management under data limited conditions as well as enable a facilitated climate change impact analysis on runoff and water resources in alpine regions worldwide.

Santa Ana Winds of Southern California: Their Climatology and Variability Spanning 6.5 Decades from Regional Dynamical Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Guzman-Morales, J.; Gershunov, A.

2015-12-01

Santa Ana Winds (SAWs) are an integral feature of the regional climate of Southern California/Northern Baja California region. In spite of their tremendous episodic impacts on the health, economy and mood of the region, climate-scale behavior of SAW is poorly understood. In the present work, we identify SAWs in mesoscale dynamical downscaling of a global reanalysis product and construct an hourly SAW catalogue spanning 65 years. We describe the long-term SAW climatology at relevant time-space resolutions, i.e, we developed local and regional SAW indices and analyse their variability on hourly, daily, annual, and multi-decadal timescales. Local and regional SAW indices are validated with available anemometer observations. Characteristic behaviors are revealed, e.g. the SAW intensity-duration relationship. At interdecadal time scales, we find that seasonal SAW activity is sensitive to prominent large-scale low-frequency modes of climate variability rooted in the tropical and north Pacific ocean-atmosphere system that are also known to affect the hydroclimate of this region. Lastly, we do not find any long-term trend in SAW frequency and intensity as previously reported. Instead, we identify a significant long-term trend in SAW behavior whereby contribution of extreme SAW events to total seasonal SAW activity has been increasing at the expense of moderate events. These findings motivate further investigation on SAW evolution in future climate and its impact on wildfires.

Italian regional health system structure and expected cancer survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Vercelli, Marina; Lillini, Roberto; Quaglia, Alberto; Capocaccia, Riccardo

2014-01-01

Few studies deal with the association of socioeconomic and health system resource variables with cancer survival at the Italian regional level, where the greatest number of decisions about social and health policies and resource allocations are taken. The present study aimed to describe the causal relationships between socioeconomic and health system resource factors and regional cancer survival and to compute the expected cancer survival at provincial, regional and area levels. Age-standardized relative survival at 5 years from diagnosis of cases incident in 1995-1998 and followed up to 2004 were derived by gender for 11 sites from the Italian Association of Cancer Registries data bank. The socioeconomic and health system resource variables, describing at a regional level the macro-economy, demography, labor market, and health resources for 1995-2005, came from the Health for All database. A principal components factor analysis was applied to the socioeconomic and health system resource variables. For every site, linear regression models were computed considering the relative survival at 5 years as a dependent variable and the principal components factor analysis factors as independent variables. The factors described the socioeconomic and health-related features of the regional systems and were causally related to the characteristics of the patient taken in charge. The models built by the factors allowed computation of the expected relative survival at 5 years with very good concordance with those observed at regional, macro-regional and national levels. In the regions without any cancer registry, survival was coherent with that of neighboring regions with similar socioeconomic and health system resources characteristics. The models highlighted the causal correlations between socioeconomic and health system resources and cancer survival, suggesting that they could be good evaluation tools for the efficiency of the resources allocation and use.

IG and TR single chain fragment variable (scFv) sequence analysis: a new advanced functionality of IMGT/V-QUEST and IMGT/HighV-QUEST.

Science.gov (United States)

Giudicelli, Véronique; Duroux, Patrice; Kossida, Sofia; Lefranc, Marie-Paule

2017-06-26

IMGT®, the international ImMunoGeneTics information system® ( http://www.imgt.org ), was created in 1989 in Montpellier, France (CNRS and Montpellier University) to manage the huge and complex diversity of the antigen receptors, and is at the origin of immunoinformatics, a science at the interface between immunogenetics and bioinformatics. Immunoglobulins (IG) or antibodies and T cell receptors (TR) are managed and described in the IMGT® databases and tools at the level of receptor, chain and domain. The analysis of the IG and TR variable (V) domain rearranged nucleotide sequences is performed by IMGT/V-QUEST (online since 1997, 50 sequences per batch) and, for next generation sequencing (NGS), by IMGT/HighV-QUEST, the high throughput version of IMGT/V-QUEST (portal begun in 2010, 500,000 sequences per batch). In vitro combinatorial libraries of engineered antibody single chain Fragment variable (scFv) which mimic the in vivo natural diversity of the immune adaptive responses are extensively screened for the discovery of novel antigen binding specificities. However the analysis of NGS full length scFv (~850 bp) represents a challenge as they contain two V domains connected by a linker and there is no tool for the analysis of two V domains in a single chain. The functionality "Analyis of single chain Fragment variable (scFv)" has been implemented in IMGT/V-QUEST and, for NGS, in IMGT/HighV-QUEST for the analysis of the two V domains of IG and TR scFv. It proceeds in five steps: search for a first closest V-REGION, full characterization of the first V-(D)-J-REGION, then search for a second V-REGION and full characterization of the second V-(D)-J-REGION, and finally linker delimitation. For each sequence or NGS read, positions of the 5'V-DOMAIN, linker and 3'V-DOMAIN in the scFv are provided in the 'V-orientated' sense. Each V-DOMAIN is fully characterized (gene identification, sequence description, junction analysis, characterization of mutations and amino

European food cultures: An exploratory analysis of food related preferences and behaviour in European regions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Askegaard, Søren; Madsen, Tage Koed

and its potential expansion, the relative importance of national boundaries must be expected to diminish whereas other boundaries will become more apparent. One type of boundaries of vital impo to international marketing is the cultural boundaries dividing Europe into regions with individual cultural...... to the point where some people ta about a 'world cuisine'. However, local, national, and regional differences continue to play a decisive role in the way elements, products, and ingredients are combined, and when, how, with what, and with whom they are eaten. 4. This paper explores information about...... such cultural patterns of food consumption based on information from an exisiting database originating from a 1989 pan-European lifestyle survey questioning around 20.000 people in 16 European countries divided into 79 regions. 5. A factor analysis reduced the number of variables from 138 to 41, discovering...

Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, the association with socioeconomic variables in adolescents from low-income region.

Science.gov (United States)

Nascimento-Ferreira, Marcus Vinicius; De Moraes, Augusto Cesar F; Carvalho, Heraclito B; Moreno, Luis A; Gomes Carneiro, André Luiz; dos Reis, Victor Manuel M; Torres-Leal, Francisco Leonardo

2014-01-01

To estimate the prevalence of obesity, overweight, abdominal obesity and high blood pressure in a sample of adolescents from a low-income city in Brazil and to estimate the relationship with the socioeconomic status of the family, the education level of the family provider and the type of school. This cross-sectional study randomly sampled 1,014 adolescents (54.8% girls), between 14-19 years of age, attending high school from Imperatriz (MA). The outcomes of this study were: obesity and overweight, abdominal obesity and high blood pressure (systolic and/ or diastolic). The independent variables were: socioeconomic status (SES) of the family, education level of the family provider (ELFP) and type of school. The confounding variables were: gender, age and physical activity level. Prevalence was estimated, and the association between the endpoints and the independent variables was analyzed using a prevalence ratio (PR), with a 95% confidence interval, estimated by Poisson regression. The overall prevalence of obesity was 3.8%, overweight, 13.1%, abdominal obesity, 22.7% and high blood pressure, 21.3%. The adjusted analysis indicated that girls with high SES showed an increased likelihood to be overweight (PR=1.71 [95% IC: 1.13-2.87]), while private school boys had an increased likelihood of obesity (PR=1.79 [95% CI: 1.04-3.08]) and abdominal obesity (PR =1.64 [95% CI: 1.06-2.54]). The prevalence of CVDR is high in adolescents from this low-income region. Boys from private schools are more likely to have obesity and abdominal obesity, and girls with high SES are more likely to be overweight. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

Multi-Site and Multi-Variables Statistical Downscaling Technique in the Monsoon Dominated Region of Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

2016-04-01

South Asia is under the severe impacts of changing climate and global warming. The last two decades showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the first decade of 21st century is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C in 2010. Consequently, the spatio-temporal distribution and intensity of precipitation is badly effected and causes floods, cyclones and hurricanes in the region which further have impacts on agriculture, water, health etc. To cope with the situation, it is important to conduct impact assessment studies and take adaptation and mitigation remedies. For impact assessment studies, we need climate variables at higher resolution. Downscaling techniques are used to produce climate variables at higher resolution; these techniques are broadly divided into two types, statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling. The target location of this study is the monsoon dominated region of Pakistan. One reason for choosing this area is because the contribution of monsoon rains in this area is more than 80 % of the total rainfall. This study evaluates a statistical downscaling technique which can be then used for downscaling climatic variables. Two statistical techniques i.e. quantile regression and copula modeling are combined in order to produce realistic results for climate variables in the area under-study. To reduce the dimension of input data and deal with multicollinearity problems, empirical orthogonal functions will be used. Advantages of this new method are: (1) it is more robust to outliers as compared to ordinary least squares estimates and other estimation methods based on central tendency and dispersion measures; (2) it preserves the dependence among variables and among sites and (3) it can be used to combine different types of distributions. This is important in our case because we are dealing with climatic variables having different distributions over different meteorological

Revisiting regional flood frequency analysis in Slovakia: the region-of-influence method vs. traditional regional approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Gaál, Ladislav; Kohnová, Silvia; Szolgay, Ján.

2010-05-01

During the last 10-15 years, the Slovak hydrologists and water resources managers have been devoting considerable efforts to develop statistical tools for modelling probabilities of flood occurrence in a regional context. Initially, these models followed concepts to regional flood frequency analysis that were based on fixed regions, later the Hosking and Wallis's (HW; 1997) theory was adopted and modified. Nevertheless, it turned out to be that delineating homogeneous regions using these approaches is not a straightforward task, mostly due to the complex orography of the country. In this poster we aim at revisiting flood frequency analyses so far accomplished for Slovakia by adopting one of the pooling approaches, i.e. the region-of-influence (ROI) approach (Burn, 1990). In the ROI approach, unique pooling groups of similar sites are defined for each site under study. The similarity of sites is defined through Euclidean distance in the space of site attributes that had also proved applicability in former cluster analyses: catchment area, afforested area, hydrogeological catchment index and the mean annual precipitation. The homogeneity of the proposed pooling groups is evaluated by the built-in homogeneity test by Lu and Stedinger (1992). Two alternatives of the ROI approach are examined: in the first one the target size of the pooling groups is adjusted to the target return period T of the estimated flood quantiles, while in the other one, the target size is fixed, regardless of the target T. The statistical models of the ROI approach are inter-compared by the conventional regionalization approach based on the HW methodology where the parameters of flood frequency distributions were derived by means of L-moment statistics and a regional formula for the estimation of the index flood was derived by multiple regression methods using physiographic and climatic catchment characteristics. The inter-comparison of different frequency models is evaluated by means of the

A new framework for estimating return levels using regional frequency analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro; Clegg, Georgina

2017-04-01

We propose a new framework for incorporating more spatial and temporal information into the estimation of extreme return levels. Currently, most studies use extreme value models applied to data from a single site; an approach which is inefficient statistically and leads to return level estimates that are less physically realistic. We aim to highlight the benefits that could be obtained by using methodology based upon regional frequency analysis as opposed to classic single site extreme value analysis. This motivates a shift in thinking, which permits the evaluation of local and regional effects and makes use of the wide variety of data that are now available on high temporal and spatial resolutions. The recent winter storms over the UK during the winters of 2013-14 and 2015-16, which have caused wide-ranging disruption and damaged important infrastructure, provide the main motivation for the current work. One of the most impactful natural hazards is flooding, which is often initiated by extreme precipitation. In this presentation, we focus on extreme rainfall, but shall discuss other meteorological variables alongside potentially damaging hazard combinations. To understand the risks posed by extreme precipitation, we need reliable statistical models which can be used to estimate quantities such as the T-year return level, i.e. the level which is expected to be exceeded once every T-years. Extreme value theory provides the main collection of statistical models that can be used to estimate the risks posed by extreme precipitation events. Broadly, at a single site, a statistical model is fitted to exceedances of a high threshold and the model is used to extrapolate to levels beyond the range of the observed data. However, when we have data at many sites over a spatial domain, fitting a separate model for each separate site makes little sense and it would be better if we could incorporate all this information to improve the reliability of return level estimates. Here

Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China

KAUST Repository

Gao, Tao

2017-07-19

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) are well understood to be major drivers for the variability of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC, and assess the time-varying influences of the climate drivers using Bayesian dynamic linear regression and their combined nonlinear effects through fitting generalized additive models. Results suggest that the central-east and south China is dominated by less frequent but more intense precipitation. Extreme rainfalls show significant positive trends, coupled with a significant decline of dry spells, indicating an increasing chance of occurrence of flood-induced disasters in the MRC during 1960–2014. Majority of the regional indices display some abrupt shifts during the 1990s. The influences of climate variables on monsoon extremes exhibit distinct interannual or interdecadal variations. IOD, ENSO and AMO have strong impacts on monsoon and extreme precipitation, especially during the 1990s, which is generally consistent with the abrupt shifts in precipitation regimes around this period. Moreover, ENSO mainly affects moderate rainfalls and dry spells, while IOD has a more significant impact on precipitation extremes. These findings could be helpful for improving the forecasting of monsoon extremes in China and the evaluations of climate models.

ANALYSIS OF DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION ON REGIONAL DISPARITY (CASE STUDY OF PROVINCES IN EASTERN AND WESTERN OF INDONESIA, 2006-2015

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Faishal Fadli

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to examine the direct and indirect effects of fiscal decentralization on regional disparity through economic growth in eastern and western Indonesia. The method used in this study is Path Analysis. The variables used in this study include the General Allocation Fund (DAU/Dana Alokasi Umum, Special Allocation Fund (DAK/Dana Alokasi Khusus, Revenue Sharing Fund (DBH/Dana Bagi Hasil, local revenue (PAD/Pendapatan Asli Daerah, Economic Growth (G, and regional disparity (IW. Comparing the analysis between eastern and western of Indonesia, the results show that there is no direct effect of fiscal decentralization on regional disparity and economic growth through direct fiscal decentralization on regional disparity in both eastern and western of Indonesia. However, using some measures of fiscal decentralization, in the case of eastern of Indonesia, DAU variable has significant effect whereas in the case of western Indonesia, DBH is the only one variable that has significant effect. This is consistent with the fact that composition of the balance funds disbursed by the central government to local governments, where the greatest composition of funds in eastern Indonesia come from the General Allocation Fund which reflects the dependence of local governments to the central government and for the western region of Indonesia, DBH is the greatest reflecting the independence of the local governments. As a result, to create fiscal decentralization working it is required a greater allocation of the fund balance.

An analysis of surface air temperature trends and variability along the Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Franquist, Eric S.

Climate change is difficult to study in mountainous regions such as the Andes since steep changes in elevation cannot always be resolved by climate models. However, it is important to examine temperature trends in this region as rises in surface air temperature are leading to the melting of tropical glaciers. Local communities rely on the glacier-fed streamflow to get their water for drinking, irrigation, and livestock. Moreover, communities also rely on the tourism of hikers who come to the region to view the glaciers. As the temperatures increase, these glaciers are no longer in equilibrium with their current climate and are receding rapidly and decreasing the streamflow. This thesis examines surface air temperature from 858 weather stations across Ecuador, Peru, and Chile in order to analyze changes in trends and variability. Three time periods were studied: 1961--1990, 1971--2000, and 1981--2010. The greatest warming occurred during the period of 1971--2000 with 92% of the stations experiencing positive trends with a mean of 0.24°C/decade. There was a clear shift toward cooler temperatures at all latitudes and below elevations of 500 m during the most recent time period studied (1981--2010). Station temperatures were more strongly correlated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). A principal component analysis confirmed ENSO as the main contributor of variability with the most influence in the lower latitudes. There were clear multidecadal changes in correlation strength for the PDO. The PDO contributed the most to the increases in station temperature trends during the 1961--1990 period, consistent with the PDO shift to the positive phase in the middle of this period. There were many strong positive trends at individual stations during the 1971--2000 period; however, these trends could not fully be attributed to ENSO, PDO, or SAM, indicating anthropogenic effects of

Spatial variability of sediment erosion processes using GIS analysis within watersheds in a historically mined region, Patagonia Mountains, Arizona

Science.gov (United States)

Brady, Laura M.; Gray, Floyd; Wissler, Craig A.; Guertin, D. Phillip

2001-01-01

In this study, a geographic information system (GIS) is used to integrate and accurately map field studies, information from remotely sensed data, watershed models, and the dispersion of potentially toxic mine waste and tailings. The purpose of this study is to identify erosion rates and net sediment delivery of soil and mine waste/tailings to the drainage channel within several watershed regions to determine source areas of sediment delivery as a method of quantifying geo-environmental analysis of transport mechanisms in abandoned mine lands in arid climate conditions. Users of this study are the researchers interested in exploration of approaches to depicting historical activity in an area which has no baseline data records for environmental analysis of heavily mined terrain.

Multifractal analysis of forest fires in complex regions

Science.gov (United States)

Vega Orozco, C. D.; Kanevski, M.; Golay, J.; Tonini, M.; Conedera, M.

2012-04-01

Forest fires can be studied as point processes where the ignition points represent the set of locations of the observed events in a defined study region. Their spatial and temporal patterns can be characterized by their fractal properties; which quantify the global aspect of the geometry of the support data. However, a monofractal dimension can not completely describe the pattern structure and related scaling properties. Enhancements in fractal theory had developed the multifractal concept which describes the measures from which interlinked fractal sets can be retrieved and characterized by their fractal dimension and singularity strength [1, 2]. The spatial variability of forest fires is conditioned by an intermixture of human, topographic, meteorological and vegetation factors. This heterogeneity makes fire patterns complex scale-invariant processes difficult to be depicted by a single scale. Therefore, this study proposes an exploratory data analysis through a multifractal formalism to characterize and quantify the multiscaling behaviour of the spatial distribution pattern of this phenomenon in a complex region like the Swiss Alps. The studied dataset is represented by 2,401 georeferenced forest fire ignition points in canton Ticino, Switzerland, in a 40-years period from 1969 to 2008. Three multifractal analyses are performed: one assesses the multiscaling behaviour of fire occurrence probability of the support data (raw data) and four random patterns simulated within three different support domains; second analysis studies the multifractal behavior of patterns from anthropogenic and natural ignited fires (arson-, accident- and lightning-caused fires); and third analysis aims at detecting scale-dependency of the size of burned area. To calculate the generalized dimensions, Dq, a generalization of the box counting methods is carried out based on the generalization of Rényi information of the qth order moment of the probability distribution. For q > 0, Dq

Bacterial and Archaeal Communities Variability Associated with Upwelling and Anthropogenic Pressures in the Protection Area of Arraial do Cabo (Cabo Frio region - RJ).

Science.gov (United States)

Coelho-Souza, Sergio A; Araújo, Fábio V; Cury, Juliano C; Jesus, Hugo E; Pereira, Gilberto C; Guimarães, Jean R D; Peixoto, Raquel S; Dávila, Alberto M R; Rosado, Alexandre S

2015-09-01

Upwelling systems contain a high diversity of pelagic microorganisms and their composition and activity are defined by factors like temperature and nutrient concentration. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) technique was used to verify the spatial and temporal genetic variability of Bacteria and Archaea in two stations of the Arraial do Cabo coastal region, one under upwelling pressure and another under anthropogenic pressure. In addition, biotic and abiotic variables were measured in surface and deep waters from three other stations between these stations. Six samplings were done during a year and adequately represented the degrees of upwelling and anthropogenic pressures to the system. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) showed negative correlations between the concentrations of ammonia and phosphorous with prokaryotic secondary production and the total heterotrophic bacteria. PCA also showed negative correlation between temperature and the abundance of prokaryotic cells. Bacterial and archaeal compositions were changeable as were the oceanographic conditions, and upwelling had a regional pressure while anthropogenic pressure was punctual. We suggest that the measurement of prokaryotic secondary production was associated with both Bacteria and Archaea activities, and that substrate availability and temperature determine nutrients cycling.

Analysis of regional climate strategies in the Barents region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Himanen, S.; Inkeroeinen, J.; Latola, K.; Vaisanen, T.; Alasaarela, E.

2012-11-15

Climate change is a global phenomenon with especially harsh effects on the Arctic and northern regions. The Arctic's average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as elsewhere in the past few decades. Since 1966, the Arctic land area covered by snow in early summer has shrunk by almost a fifth. The Barents Region consists of the northern parts of Norway, Sweden, Finland and Russia (i.e. the European part of Russia). Climate change will cause serious impacts in the Barents Region because of its higher density of population living under harsh climatic conditions, thus setting it apart from other Arctic areas. In many cases, economic activities, like tourism, rely on certain weather conditions. For this reason, climate change and adaptation to it is of special urgency for the region. Regional climate change strategies are important tools for addressing mitigation and adaptation to climate change as they can be used to consolidate the efforts of different stakeholders of the public and private sectors. Regional strategies can be important factors in achieving the national and international goals. The study evaluated how the national climate change goals were implemented in the regional and local strategies and programmes in northern Finland. The specific goal was to describe the processes by which the regional strategies were prepared and implemented, and how the work was expanded to include the whole of northern Finland. Finally, the Finnish preparatory processes were compared to case examples of processes for preparing climate change strategies elsewhere in the Barents Region. This analysis provides examples of good practices in preparing a climate change strategy and implementing it. (orig.)

Attribute Analysis of Aridity Variability in North Xinjiang, China

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Yanfeng Wu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Identifying the dominant meteorological factors affecting aridity variability can improve our understanding of climate change and its future trend in arid and semiarid regions. This study investigated the spatiotemporal aridity variability in North Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2013, based on the UNESCO aridity index (precipitation/potential evapotranspiration, and analyzed its association with meteorological factors. The results suggest that North Xinjiang is becoming more humid with an increasing trend in aridity index. Precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity have positive correlation with aridity, and evapotranspiration, sunshine hours, and wind speed have negative correlation with aridity. Wind speed and sunshine hours have a higher sensitivity and more contribution to aridity. This study provides an understanding of the effect of recent climate change on drought in northwest China.

A Variable Stiffness Analysis Model for Large Complex Thin-Walled Guide Rail

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Wang Xiaolong

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Large complex thin-walled guide rail has complicated structure and no uniform low rigidity. The traditional cutting simulations are time consuming due to huge computation especially in large workpiece. To solve these problems, a more efficient variable stiffness analysis model has been propose, which can obtain quantitative stiffness value of the machining surface. Applying simulate cutting force in sampling points using finite element analysis software ABAQUS, the single direction variable stiffness rule can be obtained. The variable stiffness matrix has been propose by analyzing multi-directions coupling variable stiffness rule. Combining with the three direction cutting force value, the reasonability of existing processing parameters can be verified and the optimized cutting parameters can be designed.

Geographical and temporal variation of regional development and innovation in Finland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Makkonen, Teemu; Inkinen, Tommi

2015-01-01

Variations in regional development are basically carried forward by technological development together with spatial concentrations of production and finance. The main argument behind this paper is that innovation and regional development variables have temporal variations in a spatial context....... Analysis was conducted using principal component indices from the years 1995–2007 to provide a temporal trend perspective of the most successful locations in innovation activity and regional development. Availability of an extensive workforce, income and higher education have steadily been the most...... “distinct” variables corresponding to regional development in Finland, whereas innovation occupies a stable middling position among explanative variables. Regional development and innovation activity is still concentrated in the core urban regions, but this tendency has lost at least some of its importance....

Quantifying uncertainty due to internal variability using high-resolution regional climate model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Gutmann, E. D.; Ikeda, K.; Deser, C.; Rasmussen, R.; Clark, M. P.; Arnold, J. R.

2015-12-01

The uncertainty in future climate predictions is as large or larger than the mean climate change signal. As such, any predictions of future climate need to incorporate and quantify the sources of this uncertainty. One of the largest sources comes from the internal, chaotic, variability within the climate system itself. This variability has been approximated using the 30 ensemble members of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble. Here we examine the wet and dry end members of this ensemble for cool-season precipitation in the Colorado Rocky Mountains with a set of high-resolution regional climate model simulations. We have used the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to simulate the periods 1990-2000, 2025-2035, and 2070-2080 on a 4km grid. These simulations show that the broad patterns of change depicted in CESM are inherited by the high-resolution simulations; however, the differences in the height and location of the mountains in the WRF simulation, relative to the CESM simulation, means that the location and magnitude of the precipitation changes are very different. We further show that high-resolution simulations with the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research model (ICAR) predict a similar spatial pattern in the change signal as WRF for these ensemble members. We then use ICAR to examine the rest of the CESM Large Ensemble as well as the uncertainty in the regional climate model due to the choice of physics parameterizations.

Intraspecific Variability of Rotylenchulus reniformis from Cotton-growing Regions in the United States

OpenAIRE

Agudelo, Paula; Robbins, Robert T.; Stewart, James McD.; Szalanski, Allen L.

2005-01-01

Reniform nematode (Rotylenchulus reniformis) is a major pest of cotton in the southeastern United States. The objective of this study was to examine the variation of reniform nematode populations from cotton-growing locations in the United States where it is prevalent. Multivariate analysis of variance and discriminant analysis were used to determine the variability of morphology in males and immature females. Reproduction indices of populations were measured on selected soybean and cotton ge...

[Relations between biomedical variables: mathematical analysis or linear algebra?].

Science.gov (United States)

Hucher, M; Berlie, J; Brunet, M

1977-01-01

The authors, after a short reminder of one pattern's structure, stress on the possible double approach of relations uniting the variables of this pattern: use of fonctions, what is within the mathematical analysis sphere, use of linear algebra profiting by matricial calculation's development and automatiosation. They precise the respective interests on these methods, their bounds and the imperatives for utilization, according to the kind of variables, of data, and the objective for work, understanding phenomenons or helping towards decision.

Economic differences among regional public service broadcasters in Spain according to their management model. An empirical analysis for period 2010-2013

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Víctor Orive Serrano

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This piece of research quantifies and analyses empirically the given economic differences among public service television in Spain according to the adopted management model (classic or outsourced. Design/methodology/approach: In so doing, an average contrast of different economic variables studied in the literature is conducted (audience share, total assets, public subsidies, cost of personnel, suppliers spending and profit after taxes. In addition, these variables are related so as to calculate productivity obtained by each two groups of television operators. This analysis is conducted for period 2010-2013, featured by a crisis context in the Spanish economy. Findings: Management model adopted by each regional broadcaster impacts on different economic variables as obtained share, total assets, public subsidies, cost of personnel, suppliers spending or profit after taxes. Moreover, those public corporations adopting an outsourced management model present better productivity values. Research limitations/implications: Only one country has been analyzed for a 4 years period. Practical implications: Regional public service broadcasters with an outsourced model present less economic losses and require less public subsidies by their corresponding regional governments. Social implications: Outsourcing part of the value chain can be useful so as to guarantee sustainability of regional public service television. Originality/value: It has been proven empirically that the management model of a regional public service television impacts its economic results.

GIS and correlation analysis of geo-environmental variables ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

GIS and correlation analysis of geo-environmental variables influencing malaria prevalence in the Saboba district of Northern Ghana. ... The study also applied spline interpolation technique to map malaria prevalence in the district using standardised malaria incidence. The result indicates that distance to marshy areas is ...

Seasonal Variability in European Radon Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Groves-Kirkby, C. J.; Denman, A. R.; Phillips, P. S.; Crockett, R. G. M.; Sinclair, J. M.

2009-04-01

correlations between published datasets and local geographic/geological conditions. Available data included regional SCF figures from the United Kingdom and from France, together with nationally-consolidated results from a number of other European countries. Analysis of this data shows significant variability between different countries and from region to region within those countries where regional data is available. Overall, radon-rich sedimentary geologies, particularly high porosity limestones etc., exhibit high seasonal variation, while radon-rich igneous geologies demonstrate relatively constant, albeit somewhat higher, radon concentration levels. Examples of the former can be found in the Pennines and South Downs in England, Languedoc and Brittany in France. Greatest variability is found in Switzerland, still subject to the ongoing Alpine orogeny, where the inhabited part of the country is largely overlain with recently-deposited light, porous sediments. Low-variability high-radon regions include the granite-rich Cornwall/Devon peninsular in England, and Auvergne and the Ardennes in France, all components of the Devonian-Carboniferous Hercynian belt, which extends from the Iberian peninsular through South-West Ireland and South-West England to France and Germany.

Singular vector decomposition of the internal variability of the Canadian Regional Climate Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diaconescu, Emilia Paula; Laprise, Rene [University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM), Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Network for Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics, P.O. Box 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada); Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Zadra, Ayrton [University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM), Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Network for Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics, P.O. Box 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada); Environment Canada, Meteorological Research Division, Montreal, QC (Canada); Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada)

2012-03-15

Previous studies have shown that Regional Climate Models (RCM) internal variability (IV) fluctuates in time depending on synoptic events. This study focuses on the physical understanding of episodes with rapid growth of IV. An ensemble of 21 simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, was run over North America using version 5 of the Canadian RCM (CRCM). The IV is quantified in terms of energy of CRCM perturbations with respect to a reference simulation. The working hypothesis is that IV is arising through rapidly growing perturbations developed in dynamically unstable regions. If indeed IV is triggered by the growth of unstable perturbations, a large proportion of the CRCM perturbations must project onto the most unstable singular vectors (SVs). A set of ten SVs was computed to identify the orthogonal set of perturbations that provide the maximum growth with respect to the dry total-energy norm during the course of the CRCM ensemble of simulations. CRCM perturbations were then projected onto the subspace of SVs. The analysis of one episode of rapid growth of IV is presented in detail. It is shown that a large part of the IV growth is explained by initially small-amplitude unstable perturbations represented by the ten leading SVs, the SV subspace accounting for over 70% of the CRCM IV growth in 36 h. The projection on the leading SV at final time is greater than the projection on the remaining SVs and there is a high similarity between the CRCM perturbations and the leading SV after 24-36 h tangent-linear model integration. The vertical structure of perturbations revealed that the baroclinic conversion is the dominant process in IV growth for this particular episode. (orig.)

The effects of alignment quality, distance calculation method, sequence filtering, and region on the analysis of 16S rRNA gene-based studies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrick D Schloss

Full Text Available Pyrosequencing of PCR-amplified fragments that target variable regions within the 16S rRNA gene has quickly become a powerful method for analyzing the membership and structure of microbial communities. This approach has revealed and introduced questions that were not fully appreciated by those carrying out traditional Sanger sequencing-based methods. These include the effects of alignment quality, the best method of calculating pairwise genetic distances for 16S rRNA genes, whether it is appropriate to filter variable regions, and how the choice of variable region relates to the genetic diversity observed in full-length sequences. I used a diverse collection of 13,501 high-quality full-length sequences to assess each of these questions. First, alignment quality had a significant impact on distance values and downstream analyses. Specifically, the greengenes alignment, which does a poor job of aligning variable regions, predicted higher genetic diversity, richness, and phylogenetic diversity than the SILVA and RDP-based alignments. Second, the effect of different gap treatments in determining pairwise genetic distances was strongly affected by the variation in sequence length for a region; however, the effect of different calculation methods was subtle when determining the sample's richness or phylogenetic diversity for a region. Third, applying a sequence mask to remove variable positions had a profound impact on genetic distances by muting the observed richness and phylogenetic diversity. Finally, the genetic distances calculated for each of the variable regions did a poor job of correlating with the full-length gene. Thus, while it is tempting to apply traditional cutoff levels derived for full-length sequences to these shorter sequences, it is not advisable. Analysis of beta-diversity metrics showed that each of these factors can have a significant impact on the comparison of community membership and structure. Taken together, these results

Insights into gait disorders: walking variability using phase plot analysis, Huntington's disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Collett, Johnny; Esser, Patrick; Khalil, Hanan; Busse, Monica; Quinn, Lori; DeBono, Katy; Rosser, Anne; Nemeth, Andrea H; Dawes, Helen

2014-09-01

Huntington's disease (HD) is a progressive inherited neurodegenerative disorder. Identifying sensitive methodologies to quantitatively measure early motor changes have been difficult to develop. This exploratory observational study investigated gait variability and symmetry in HD using phase plot analysis. We measured the walking of 22 controls and 35 HD gene carriers (7 premanifest (PreHD)), 16 early/mid (HD1) and 12 late stage (HD2) in Oxford and Cardiff, UK. The unified Huntington's disease rating scale-total motor scores (UHDRS-TMS) and disease burden scores (DBS) were used to quantify disease severity. Data was collected during a clinical walk test (8.8 or 10 m) using an inertial measurement unit attached to the trunk. The 6 middle strides were used to calculate gait variability determined by spatiotemporal parameters (co-efficient of variation (CoV)) and phase plot analysis. Phase plots considered the variability in consecutive wave forms from vertical movement and were quantified by SDA (spatiotemporal variability), SDB (temporal variability), ratio ∀ (ratio SDA:SDB) and Δangleβ (symmetry). Step time CoV was greater in manifest HD (p0.05). Phase plot analysis identified differences between manifest HD and controls for SDB, Ratio ∀ and Δangle (all pplot analysis may be a sensitive method of detecting gait changes in HD and can be performed quickly during clinical walking tests. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Magnetic Field Diagnostics and Spatio-Temporal Variability of the Solar Transition Region

Science.gov (United States)

Peter, H.

2013-12-01

Magnetic field diagnostics of the transition region from the chromosphere to the corona faces us with the problem that one has to apply extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) spectro-polarimetry. While for the coronal diagnostics techniques already exist in the form of infrared coronagraphy above the limb and radio observations on the disk, one has to investigate EUV observations for the transition region. However, so far the success of such observations has been limited, but various current projects aim to obtain spectro-polarimetric data in the extreme UV in the near future. Therefore it is timely to study the polarimetric signals we can expect from these observations through realistic forward modeling. We employ a 3D magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) forward model of the solar corona and synthesize the Stokes I and Stokes V profiles of C iv (1548 Å). A signal well above 0.001 in Stokes V can be expected even if one integrates for several minutes to reach the required signal-to-noise ratio, and despite the rapidly changing intensity in the model (just as in observations). This variability of the intensity is often used as an argument against transition region magnetic diagnostics, which requires exposure times of minutes. However, the magnetic field is evolving much slower than the intensity, and therefore the degree of (circular) polarization remains rather constant when one integrates in time. Our study shows that it is possible to measure the transition region magnetic field if a polarimetric accuracy on the order of 0.001 can be reached, which we can expect from planned instrumentation.

Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) variety discrimination and hybridization analysis based on the 5S rRNA region.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Yan-Lin; Kang, Ho-Min; Kim, Young-Sik; Baek, Jun-Pill; Zheng, Shi-Lin; Xiang, Jin-Jun; Hong, Soon-Kwan

2014-05-04

The tomato ( Solanum lycopersicum ) is a major vegetable crop worldwide. To satisfy popular demand, more than 500 tomato varieties have been bred. However, a clear variety identification has not been found. Thorough understanding of the phylogenetic relationship and hybridization information of tomato varieties is very important for further variety breeding. Thus, in this study, we collected 26 tomato varieties and attempted to distinguish them based on the 5S rRNA region, which is widely used in the determination of phylogenetic relations. Sequence analysis of the 5S rRNA region suggested that a large number of nucleotide variations exist among tomato varieties. These variable nucleotide sites were also informative regarding hybridization. Chromas sequencing of Yellow Mountain View and Seuwiteuking varieties indicated three and one variable nucleotide sites in the non-transcribed spacer (NTS) of the 5S rRNA region showing hybridization, respectively. Based on a phylogenetic tree constructed using the 5S rRNA sequences, we observed that 16 tomato varieties were divided into three groups at 95% similarity. Rubiking and Sseommeoking, Lang Selection Procedure and Seuwiteuking, and Acorn Gold and Yellow Mountain View exhibited very high identity with their partners. This work will aid variety authentication and provides a basis for further tomato variety breeding.

Decomposing global crop yield variability

Science.gov (United States)

Ben-Ari, Tamara; Makowski, David

2014-11-01

Recent food crises have highlighted the need to better understand the between-year variability of agricultural production. Although increasing future production seems necessary, the globalization of commodity markets suggests that the food system would also benefit from enhanced supplies stability through a reduction in the year-to-year variability. Here, we develop an analytical expression decomposing global crop yield interannual variability into three informative components that quantify how evenly are croplands distributed in the world, the proportion of cultivated areas allocated to regions of above or below average variability and the covariation between yields in distinct world regions. This decomposition is used to identify drivers of interannual yield variations for four major crops (i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat) over the period 1961-2012. We show that maize production is fairly spread but marked by one prominent region with high levels of crop yield interannual variability (which encompasses the North American corn belt in the USA, and Canada). In contrast, global rice yields have a small variability because, although spatially concentrated, much of the production is located in regions of below-average variability (i.e., South, Eastern and South Eastern Asia). Because of these contrasted land use allocations, an even cultivated land distribution across regions would reduce global maize yield variance, but increase the variance of global yield rice. Intermediate results are obtained for soybean and wheat for which croplands are mainly located in regions with close-to-average variability. At the scale of large world regions, we find that covariances of regional yields have a negligible contribution to global yield variance. The proposed decomposition could be applied at any spatial and time scales, including the yearly time step. By addressing global crop production stability (or lack thereof) our results contribute to the understanding of a key

Analysis of Water Use and Water Scarcity in Arid and Semi-arid Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Samayoa, S. D.

2017-12-01

Analysis of Water Use and Water Scarcity in Arid and Semi-arid Regions Susana Samayoa , Muhammed A. G. Chowdhury, Tushar Sinha Department of Environmental Engineering, Texas A & M University - Kingsville Freshwater sustainability in arid and semi-arid regions is highly uncertain under increasing demands due to population growth and urban development as well as limited water supply. In particular, six largest cities by population among the top twenty U.S. cities are located in Texas (TX), which also experience high variability in water availability due to frequent droughts and floods. Similarly, several regions in Arizona (AZ) are rapidly growing (e.g. Phoenix and Tucson) despite receiving scanty rainfall. Thus, the goal of this study is to analyze water use and water scarcity in watersheds within TX and AZ between 1985 and 2010. The water use data from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is analyzed by Hydrological Unit Code (HUC) - 8 within TX and AZ. Total freshwater use by county during 1985 and 2010 were converted into water use by HUC-8 using geospatial analysis. Water availability will be estimated by using a large scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model will be calibrated and validated for multiple basins located in Texas and Arizona. The VIC model simulated total streamflow will be aggregated across the 1/8 degree grids that are within each HUC-8 to estimate water supply. The excess water for upstream HUC-8s (= local supply minus demands) will be routed, in addition to locally generated streamflow, to estimate water availability in downstream HUC-8s. Water Scarcity Index, defined as the ratio of total freshwater demand to supply, will be estimated during 1985 and 2010 to evaluate the effects of water availability and demands on scarcity. Finally, water scarcity and use will be analyzed by HUC-8s within TX and AZ. Such information could be useful in water resources management and planning. Keywords: Water scarcity, water use

Emergy-Based Regional Socio-Economic Metabolism Analysis: An Application of Data Envelopment Analysis and Decomposition Analysis

OpenAIRE

Zilong Zhang; Xingpeng Chen; Peter Heck

2014-01-01

Integrated analysis on socio-economic metabolism could provide a basis for understanding and optimizing regional sustainability. The paper conducted socio-economic metabolism analysis by means of the emergy accounting method coupled with data envelopment analysis and decomposition analysis techniques to assess the sustainability of Qingyang city and its eight sub-region system, as well as to identify the major driving factors of performance change during 2000–2007, to serve as the basis for f...

European regional efficiency and geographical externalities: a spatial nonparametric frontier analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Ramajo, Julián; Cordero, José Manuel; Márquez, Miguel Ángel

2017-10-01

This paper analyses region-level technical efficiency in nine European countries over the 1995-2007 period. We propose the application of a nonparametric conditional frontier approach to account for the presence of heterogeneous conditions in the form of geographical externalities. Such environmental factors are beyond the control of regional authorities, but may affect the production function. Therefore, they need to be considered in the frontier estimation. Specifically, a spatial autoregressive term is included as an external conditioning factor in a robust order- m model. Thus we can test the hypothesis of non-separability (the external factor impacts both the input-output space and the distribution of efficiencies), demonstrating the existence of significant global interregional spillovers into the production process. Our findings show that geographical externalities affect both the frontier level and the probability of being more or less efficient. Specifically, the results support the fact that the spatial lag variable has an inverted U-shaped non-linear impact on the performance of regions. This finding can be interpreted as a differential effect of interregional spillovers depending on the size of the neighboring economies: positive externalities for small values, possibly related to agglomeration economies, and negative externalities for high values, indicating the possibility of production congestion. Additionally, evidence of the existence of a strong geographic pattern of European regional efficiency is reported and the levels of technical efficiency are acknowledged to have converged during the period under analysis.

Geographical and temporal variation of regional development and innovation in Finland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teemu Makkonen

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Variations in regional development are basically carried forward by technological development together with spatial concentrations of production and finance. The main argument behind this paper is that innovation and regional development variables have temporal variations in a spatial context. Analysis was conducted using principal component indices from the years 1995–2007 to provide a temporal trend perspective of the most successful locations in innovation activity and regional development. Availability of an extensive workforce, income and higher education have steadily been the most “distinct” variables corresponding to regional development in Finland, whereas innovation occupies a stable middling position among explanative variables. Regional development and innovation activity is still concentrated in the core urban regions, but this tendency has lost at least some of its importance.

PATH ANALYSIS WITH LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS : EFFECT ANALYSIS OF FULLY RECURSIVE CAUSAL SYSTEMS OF CATEGORICAL VARIABLES

OpenAIRE

Nobuoki, Eshima; Minoru, Tabata; Geng, Zhi; Department of Medical Information Analysis, Faculty of Medicine, Oita Medical University; Department of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Engineering, Kobe University; Department of Probability and Statistics, Peking University

2001-01-01

This paper discusses path analysis of categorical variables with logistic regression models. The total, direct and indirect effects in fully recursive causal systems are considered by using model parameters. These effects can be explained in terms of log odds ratios, uncertainty differences, and an inner product of explanatory variables and a response variable. A study on food choice of alligators as a numerical exampleis reanalysed to illustrate the present approach.

Contributions of internal climate variability to mitigation of projected future regional sea level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, A.; Bates, S. C.

2017-12-01

Observations indicate that the global mean surface temperature is rising, so does the global mean sea level. Sea level rise (SLR) can impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities, especially when SLR is compounded with storm surges. Here, via analyzing results from two sets of ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1, we investigate how the potential SLR benefits through mitigating the future emission scenarios from business as usual to a mild-mitigation over the 21st Century would be affected by internal climate variability. Results show that there is almost no SLR benefit in the near term due to the large SLR variability due to the internal ocean dynamics. However, toward the end of the 21st century, the SLR benefit can be as much as a 26±1% reduction of the global mean SLR due to seawater thermal expansion. Regionally, the benefits from this mitigation for both near and long terms are heterogeneous. They vary from just a 11±5% SLR reduction in Melbourne, Australia to a 35±6% reduction in London. The processes contributing to these regional differences are the coupling of the wind-driven ocean circulation with the decadal scale sea surface temperature mode in the Pacific and Southern Oceans, and the changes of the thermohaline circulation and the mid-latitude air-sea coupling in the Atlantic.

Housing Archetype Analysis for Home Energy-Efficient Retrofit in the Great Lakes Region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, S. K.; Mrozowski, T.; Harrell-Seyburn, A.; Ehrlich, N.; Hembroff, L.; Bieburn, B.; Mazor, M.; McIntyre, A.; Mutton, C.; Parsons, G.; Syal, M. G.; Wilkinson, R.

2014-09-01

This project report details activities and results of the 'Market Characterization' project undertaken by the Cost Effective Energy Retrofit (CEER) team targeted toward the DOE goal of achieving 30%-50% reduction in existing building energy use. CEER consists of members from the Dow Chemical Company, Michigan State University, Ferris State University and Habitat for Humanity Kent County. The purpose of this market characterization project was to identify housing archetypes which are dominant within Great Lakes region and therefore offer significant potential for energy-efficient retrofit research and implementation due to the substantial number of homes possessing similar characteristics. Understanding the characteristics of housing groups referred to as 'archetypes' by vintage, style, and construction characteristics can allow research teams to focus their retrofit research and develop prescriptive solutions for those structure types which are prevalent and offer high potential uptake within a region or market. Key research activities included; literature review, statistical analysis of national and regional data of the American Housing Survey (AHS) collected by the U.S. Census Bureau, analysis of Michigan specific data, development of a housing taxonomy of architectural styles, case studies of two local markets (i.e., Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids in Michigan) and development of a suggested framework (or process) for characterizing local markets. In order to gain a high level perspective, national and regional data from the U.S. Census Bureau was analyzed using cross tabulations, multiple regression models, and logistic regression to characterize the housing stock and determine dominant house types using 21 variables.

Statistical methods and regression analysis of stratospheric ozone and meteorological variables in Isfahan

Science.gov (United States)

Hassanzadeh, S.; Hosseinibalam, F.; Omidvari, M.

2008-04-01

Data of seven meteorological variables (relative humidity, wet temperature, dry temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, ground temperature and sun radiation time) and ozone values have been used for statistical analysis. Meteorological variables and ozone values were analyzed using both multiple linear regression and principal component methods. Data for the period 1999-2004 are analyzed jointly using both methods. For all periods, temperature dependent variables were highly correlated, but were all negatively correlated with relative humidity. Multiple regression analysis was used to fit the meteorological variables using the meteorological variables as predictors. A variable selection method based on high loading of varimax rotated principal components was used to obtain subsets of the predictor variables to be included in the linear regression model of the meteorological variables. In 1999, 2001 and 2002 one of the meteorological variables was weakly influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations. However, the model did not predict that the meteorological variables for the year 2000 were not influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations that point to variation in sun radiation. This could be due to other factors that were not explicitly considered in this study.

Reducing Variability in Stress Drop with Root-Mean Acceleration

Science.gov (United States)

Crempien, J.; Archuleta, R. J.

2012-12-01

Stress drop is a fundamental property of the earthquake source. For a given tectonic region stress drop is assumed to be constant allowing for the scaling of earthquake spectra. However, the variability of the stress drop, either for worldwide catalogs or regional catalogs, is quite large. The variability around the median value is on the order of 1.5 in log10 units. One question that continues to pervade the analysis of stress drop is whether this variability is an inherent characteristic of the Earth or is an artifact of the determination of stress drop via the use of the spectral analysis. It is simple to see that the stress drop determined by seismic moment times corner frequency cubed that errors in the corner frequency will strongly influence the variability in the stress drop. To avoid this strong dependence on corner frequency cubed, we have examined the determination of stress drop based on the approach proposed by Hanks (1979), namely using the root-mean-square acceleration. The stress drop determined using rms acceleration may be advantageous because the stress drop is only affected by the square root of the corner frequency. To test this approach we have determined stress drops for the 2000 Tottori earthquake and its aftershocks. We use both the classic method of fitting to a spectrum as well as using rms acceleration. For a preliminary analysis of eight aftershocks and the mainshock we find that the variability in stress drop is reduced by about a factor of two. This approach needs more careful analysis of more events, which will be shown at the meeting.

Detailed analysis of the microbial population in Malaysian spontaneous cocoa pulp fermentations reveals a core and variable microbiota.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esther Meersman

Full Text Available The fermentation of cocoa pulp is one of the few remaining large-scale spontaneous microbial processes in today's food industry. The microbiota involved in cocoa pulp fermentations is complex and variable, which leads to inconsistent production efficiency and cocoa quality. Despite intensive research in the field, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the microbiota is still lacking, especially for the expanding Asian production region. Here, we report a large-scale, comprehensive analysis of four spontaneous Malaysian cocoa pulp fermentations across two time points in the harvest season and two fermentation methods. Our results show that the cocoa microbiota consists of a "core" and a "variable" part. The bacterial populations show a remarkable consistency, with only two dominant species, Lactobacillus fermentum and Acetobacter pasteurianus. The fungal diversity is much larger, with four dominant species occurring in all fermentations ("core" yeasts, and a large number of yeasts that only occur in lower numbers and specific fermentations ("variable" yeasts. Despite this diversity, a clear pattern emerges, with early dominance of apiculate yeasts and late dominance of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Our results provide new insights into the microbial diversity in Malaysian cocoa pulp fermentations and pave the way for the selection of starter cultures to increase efficiency and consistency.

Detailed analysis of the microbial population in Malaysian spontaneous cocoa pulp fermentations reveals a core and variable microbiota.

Science.gov (United States)

Meersman, Esther; Steensels, Jan; Mathawan, Melissa; Wittocx, Pieter-Jan; Saels, Veerle; Struyf, Nore; Bernaert, Herwig; Vrancken, Gino; Verstrepen, Kevin J

2013-01-01

The fermentation of cocoa pulp is one of the few remaining large-scale spontaneous microbial processes in today's food industry. The microbiota involved in cocoa pulp fermentations is complex and variable, which leads to inconsistent production efficiency and cocoa quality. Despite intensive research in the field, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the microbiota is still lacking, especially for the expanding Asian production region. Here, we report a large-scale, comprehensive analysis of four spontaneous Malaysian cocoa pulp fermentations across two time points in the harvest season and two fermentation methods. Our results show that the cocoa microbiota consists of a "core" and a "variable" part. The bacterial populations show a remarkable consistency, with only two dominant species, Lactobacillus fermentum and Acetobacter pasteurianus. The fungal diversity is much larger, with four dominant species occurring in all fermentations ("core" yeasts), and a large number of yeasts that only occur in lower numbers and specific fermentations ("variable" yeasts). Despite this diversity, a clear pattern emerges, with early dominance of apiculate yeasts and late dominance of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Our results provide new insights into the microbial diversity in Malaysian cocoa pulp fermentations and pave the way for the selection of starter cultures to increase efficiency and consistency.

Surfing wave climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Iñigo J.; Méndez, Fernando J.

2014-10-01

International surfing destinations are highly dependent on specific combinations of wind-wave formation, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. Surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, and analyses of surf quality require the consideration of the seasonal, interannual and long-term variability of surf conditions on a global scale. A multivariable standardized index based on expert judgment is proposed for this purpose. This index makes it possible to analyze surf conditions objectively over a global domain. A summary of global surf resources based on a new index integrating existing wave, wind, tides and sea surface temperature databases is presented. According to general atmospheric circulation and swell propagation patterns, results show that west-facing low to middle-latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in the Southern Hemisphere. Month-to-month analysis reveals strong seasonal variations in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing the frequency of such events in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Interannual variability was investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional modes of low-frequency climate variability such as El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation, revealing their strong influence at both the global and the regional scale. Results of the long-term trends demonstrate an increase in the probability of surfable events on west-facing coasts around the world in recent years. The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers, the surf tourism industry and surf-related coastal planners and stakeholders.

At site and regional analysis of maximum annual and seasonal discharges and precipitation depths in the upper Hron region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohnova, S.; Hlavcova, K.

2004-01-01

In this presentation authors deal with the regional analysis of maximum annual and seasonal discharges and precipitation depths in the upper Hron region (Slovak Republic). This work has two objectives: (1) At site and regional analysis of annual and seasonal maximum design discharges in the upper Hron region; (2) Analysis of annual and seasonal maximum design precipitations in the connection of extreme runoff condition in the upper Hron region

Topex-Poseidon analysis of sea level variability over the Atlantic Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Catalan P-U, M.; Villares, P.; Catalan, M.; Gomez-Enri, J.

2003-04-01

The variability of sea level and surface geostrophic currents in Atlantic Ocean is investigated using 333 cycles of altimeter information obtained by TOPEX-POSEIDON satellite. After the improvements of orbit accuracy, the most important concern to studies of sea level variability from altimeter height data are related with the formalism used for modelling the altimetric measurement corrections. Presently, one of the main sources of potential error is the correction for atmospheric pressure loading, the so-called ‘inverse barometer effect’. As is well known, this correction is intended to adjust the sea surface elevation for the static effects of the downward force of the mass of the atmosphere on the sea surface, adjusted, in this oversimplified model in 1cm/mbar. The exact response of the sea surface to atmospheric pressure loading depends on the space and time scales of the pressure field and must be specially a concern at high latitudes where atmospheric pressure fluctuations are large due to the intensity of low pressure fields at these latitudes and the additional uncertainty in the model estimates of the local sea level pressure. To study these effects over the whole Atlantic Ocean we compute a linear regression adjustment and an Empirical Orthogonal Functions Decomposition (EOFD), between sea level variation without inverse barometer correction and the atmospheric pressure, in all the Topex-Poseidon cross points over the whole Atlantic, including both the Artic and Antarctic Oceans. We use the barometric factor computed from the linear regression to correct the satellite mean sea level variation, comparing the correlation with the pressure. Our results show an important improvement in the decorrelation between sea level and atmospheric pressure time series, compared with the use of Inverse Barometer model, at most of the satellite cross points. The complicated nature of sea level variability at high latitudes justify that EOFD analysis conclusions

Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Stenni

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Climate trends in the Antarctic region remain poorly characterized, owing to the brevity and scarcity of direct climate observations and the large magnitude of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. Here, within the framework of the PAGES Antarctica2k working group, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records from Antarctica, consisting of 112 records. We produce both unweighted and weighted isotopic (δ18O composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE, binned at 5- and 10-year resolution, for seven climatically distinct regions covering the Antarctic continent. Following earlier work of the Antarctica2k working group, we also produce composites and reconstructions for the broader regions of East Antarctica, West Antarctica and the whole continent. We use three methods for our temperature reconstructions: (i a temperature scaling based on the δ18O–temperature relationship output from an ECHAM5-wiso model simulation nudged to ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalyses from 1979 to 2013, and adjusted for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to borehole temperature data, (ii a temperature scaling of the isotopic normalized anomalies to the variance of the regional reanalysis temperature and (iii a composite-plus-scaling approach used in a previous continent-scale reconstruction of Antarctic temperature since 1 CE but applied to the new Antarctic ice core database. Our new reconstructions confirm a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all Antarctic regions where records extend back into the 1st millennium, with the exception of the Wilkes Land coast and Weddell Sea coast regions. Within this long-term cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE, we find that the warmest period occurs between 300 and 1000 CE, and the coldest interval occurs from 1200 to 1900 CE. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Dronning Maud Land coast and the

Methods for the Quasi-Periodic Variability Analysis in Blazars Y. Liu ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

the variability analysis in blazars in optical and radio bands, to search for possible quasi-periodic signals. 2. Power spectral density (PSD). In statistical signal processing and physics, the power spectral density (PSD) is a positive real function of a frequency variable associated with a stationary stochas- tic process. Intuitively ...

VALUE OF HEART RATE VARIABILITY ANALYSIS IN DIAGNOSTICS OF THE EMOTIONAL STATE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

І. Chaykovskyi

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The is presented the development of method for evaluation of emotional state of man, what suitable for use at the workplace based on analysis of heart rate (HR variability. 28 healthy volunteers were examined. 3 audiovisual clips were consistently presented on the display of the personal computer for each of them. One clip contained information originating the positive emotions, the second one – negative emotions, the third one – neutral. All possible pairs of the emotional states were analysed with help of one- and multi-dimensional linear discriminant analysis based on HR variability. Showing the emotional video-clips (of both signs causes reliable slowing of HR frequency and also some decreasing of HR variability. In addition, negative emotions cause regularizing and simplification of structural organization of heart rhythm. Accuracy of discrimination for pair “emotional – neutral” video clips was 98 %, for pair “rest – neutral” was 74 %, for pair “positive – negative” was 91 %. Analysis of HR variability enables to determine the emotional state of observed person at the workplace with high reliability.

Regional Convergence of Income: Spatial Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vera Ivanovna Ivanova

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Russia has a huge territory and a strong interregional heterogeneity, so we can assume that geographical factors have a significant impact on the pace of economic growth in Russian regions. Therefore the article is focused on the following issues: 1 correlation between comparative advantages of geographical location and differences in growth rates; 2 impact of more developed regions on their neighbors and 3 correlation between economic growth of regions and their spatial interaction. The article is devoted to the empirical analysis of regional per capita incomes from 1996 to 2012 and explores the dynamics of the spatial autocorrelation of regional development indicator. It is shown that there is a problem of measuring the intensity of spatial dependence: factor value of Moran’s index varies greatly depending on the choice of the matrix of distances. In addition, with the help of spatial econometrics the author tests the following hypotheses: 1 there is convergence between regions for a specified period; 2 the process of beta convergence is explained by the spatial arrangement of regions and 3 there is positive impact of market size on regional growth. The author empirically confirmed all three hypotheses

Relationship between rice yield and climate variables in southwest Nigeria using multiple linear regression and support vector machine analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Oguntunde, Philip G.; Lischeid, Gunnar; Dietrich, Ottfried

2018-03-01

This study examines the variations of climate variables and rice yield and quantifies the relationships among them using multiple linear regression, principal component analysis, and support vector machine (SVM) analysis in southwest Nigeria. The climate and yield data used was for a period of 36 years between 1980 and 2015. Similar to the observed decrease ( P 1 and explained 83.1% of the total variance of predictor variables. The SVM regression function using the scores of the first principal component explained about 75% of the variance in rice yield data and linear regression about 64%. SVM regression between annual solar radiation values and yield explained 67% of the variance. Only the first component of the principal component analysis (PCA) exhibited a clear long-term trend and sometimes short-term variance similar to that of rice yield. Short-term fluctuations of the scores of the PC1 are closely coupled to those of rice yield during the 1986-1993 and the 2006-2013 periods thereby revealing the inter-annual sensitivity of rice production to climate variability. Solar radiation stands out as the climate variable of highest influence on rice yield, and the influence was especially strong during monsoon and post-monsoon periods, which correspond to the vegetative, booting, flowering, and grain filling stages in the study area. The outcome is expected to provide more in-depth regional-specific climate-rice linkage for screening of better cultivars that can positively respond to future climate fluctuations as well as providing information that may help optimized planting dates for improved radiation use efficiency in the study area.

Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

2017-10-01

Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

Coupled ocean-atmosphere surface variability and its climate impacts in the tropical Atlantic region

Science.gov (United States)

Fontaine, B.; Janicot, Serge; Roucou, P.

This study examines time evolution and statistical relationships involving the two leading ocean-atmosphere coupled modes of variability in the tropical Atlantic and some climate anomalies over the tropical 120°W-60°W region using selected historical files (75-y near global SSTs and precipitation over land), more recent observed data (30-y SST and pseudo wind stress in the tropical Atlantic) and reanalyses from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis System on the period 1968-1997: surface air temperature, sea level pressure, moist static energy content at 850 hPa, precipitable water and precipitation. The first coupled mode detected through singular value decomposition of the SST and pseudo wind-stress data over the tropical Atlantic (30°N-20°S) expresses a modulation in the thermal transequatorial gradient of SST anomalies conducted by one month leading wind-stress anomalies mainly in the tropical north Atlantic during northern winter and fall. It features a slight dipole structure in the meridional plane. Its time variability is dominated by a quasi-decadal signal well observed in the last 20-30 ys and, when projected over longer-term SST data, in the 1920s and 1930s but with shorter periods. The second coupled mode is more confined to the south-equatorial tropical Atlantic in the northern summer and explains considerably less wind-stress/SST cross-covariance. Its time series features an interannual variability dominated by shorter frequencies with increased variance in the 1960s and 1970s before 1977. Correlations between these modes and the ENSO-like Nino3 index lead to decreasing amplitude of thermal anomalies in the tropical Atlantic during warm episodes in the Pacific. This could explain the nonstationarity of meridional anomaly gradients on seasonal and interannual time scales. Overall the relationships between the oceanic component of the coupled modes and the climate anomaly patterns denote thermodynamical

A Statistical Analysis of Cointegration for I(2) Variables

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Søren

1995-01-01

be conducted using the ¿ sup2/sup distribution. It is shown to what extent inference on the cointegration ranks can be conducted using the tables already prepared for the analysis of cointegration of I(1) variables. New tables are needed for the test statistics to control the size of the tests. This paper...... contains a multivariate test for the existence of I(2) variables. This test is illustrated using a data set consisting of U.K. and foreign prices and interest rates as well as the exchange rate....

Observed Regional Climate Variability during the Last 50 Years in Reindeer Herding Cooperatives of Finnish Fell Lapland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Élise Lépy

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In Finnish Lapland, reindeer herders’ activity is strongly dependent on the surrounding natural environment, which is directly exposed to environmental changes and climatic variations. By assessing whether there is any evidence of change in climate in Fell Lapland over the last 50 years, this paper attempts to link global climatic trends with local conditions and respond to the need of information at the local level. It aims at assessing the changes in temperature, precipitation and snow cover at a regional and local scale, as well as determining the climatic trends for the period 1960–2011. Statistical methods were used to conduct analyses of the regional homogeneity, the annual and seasonal variability, and the cold intensity. The results show that the regional climate is not homogeneous and differences exist between locations. Nevertheless, it can be concluded that, in general, a warming trend is discernible for the period 1960–2011, frost and thaw cycles slightly increase, and variations in mean temperatures are more important in the winter. Precipitation is more variable according to the site but, in general, precipitation is increasing with time, especially in the winter, and the snow cover does not seem to contain any discernible trend.

National and regional analysis of road accidents in Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Tolón-Becerra, A; Lastra-Bravo, X; Flores-Parra, I

2013-01-01

In Spain, the absolute fatality figures decreased almost 50 percent between 1998 and 2009. Despite this great effort, road mortality is still of great concern to political authorities. Further progress requires efficient road safety policy based on an optimal set of measures and targets that consider the initial conditions and characteristics in each region. This study attempts to analyze road accidents in Spain and its provinces in time and space during 1998-2009. First, we analyzed daily, monthly, and nationwide (NUTS 0) development of road accidents, the correlation between logarithmic transformations of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, the causality by simple linear regression of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, and preliminary frequency by fast Fourier transform. Then we analyzed the annual trend in accidents in the Spanish provinces (NUTS 3) and found a correlation between the logarithmic transformations of the mortality rate, fatalities per fatal accident, and accidents resulting in injuries per inhabitant variables and population, population density, gross domestic product (GDP), length of road network, and area. Finally, causality was analyzed by simple linear regression. The most outstanding results were the negative correlation between mortality rate and population density in Spanish provinces, which has increased over time, and that road accidents in Spain have an approximate periodicity of 57 days. The fast Fourier transform analysis of road accident frequency in Spain was useful in identifying the periodic, harmonic components of accidents and casualties. The periodicity observed both for the period 1998-2009 and by year showed that the highest intensity in road accidents was bimonthly, despite the lower number of accidents and casualties in the spectra of amplitude and power and efforts to reduce the intensity and concentration during off-season travel (summer and December).

Accounting for inter-annual and seasonal variability in regionalization of hydrologic response in the Great Lakes basin

Science.gov (United States)

Kult, J. M.; Fry, L. M.; Gronewold, A. D.

2012-12-01

Methods for predicting streamflow in areas with limited or nonexistent measures of hydrologic response typically invoke the concept of regionalization, whereby knowledge pertaining to gauged catchments is transferred to ungauged catchments. In this study, we identify watershed physical characteristics acting as primary drivers of hydrologic response throughout the US portion of the Great Lakes basin. Relationships between watershed physical characteristics and hydrologic response are generated from 166 catchments spanning a variety of climate, soil, land cover, and land form regimes through regression tree analysis, leading to a grouping of watersheds exhibiting similar hydrologic response characteristics. These groupings are then used to predict response in ungauged watersheds in an uncertainty framework. Results from this method are assessed alongside one historical regionalization approach which, while simple, has served as a cornerstone of Great Lakes regional hydrologic research for several decades. Our approach expands upon previous research by considering multiple temporal characterizations of hydrologic response. Due to the substantial inter-annual and seasonal variability in hydrologic response observed over the Great Lakes basin, results from the regression tree analysis differ considerably depending on the level of temporal aggregation used to define the response. Specifically, higher levels of temporal aggregation for the response metric (for example, indices derived from long-term means of climate and streamflow observations) lead to improved watershed groupings with lower within-group variance. However, this perceived improvement in model skill occurs at the cost of understated uncertainty when applying the regression to time series simulations or as a basis for model calibration. In such cases, our results indicate that predictions based on long-term characterizations of hydrologic response can produce misleading conclusions when applied at shorter

An analysis of prediction skill of monthly mean climate variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kumar, Arun; Chen, Mingyue; Wang, Wanqiu [Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CPC/NCEP), Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2011-09-15

In this paper, lead-time and spatial dependence in skill for prediction of monthly mean climate variability is analyzed. The analysis is based on a set of extensive hindcasts from the Climate Forecast System at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The skill characteristics of initialized predictions is also compared with the AMIP simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature (SST) to quantify the role of initial versus boundary conditions in the prediction of monthly means. The analysis is for prediction of monthly mean SST, precipitation, and 200-hPa height. The results show a rapid decay in skill with lead time for the atmospheric variables in the extratropical latitudes. Further, after a lead-time of approximately 30-40 days, the skill of monthly mean prediction is essentially a boundary forced problem, with SST anomalies in the tropical central/eastern Pacific playing a dominant role. Because of the larger contribution from the atmospheric internal variability to monthly time-averages (compared to seasonal averages), skill for monthly mean prediction associated with boundary forcing is also lower. The analysis indicates that the prospects of skillful prediction of monthly means may remain a challenging problem, and may be limited by inherent limits in predictability. (orig.)

Partial differential equations with variable exponents variational methods and qualitative analysis

CERN Document Server

Radulescu, Vicentiu D

2015-01-01

Partial Differential Equations with Variable Exponents: Variational Methods and Qualitative Analysis provides researchers and graduate students with a thorough introduction to the theory of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) with a variable exponent, particularly those of elliptic type. The book presents the most important variational methods for elliptic PDEs described by nonhomogeneous differential operators and containing one or more power-type nonlinearities with a variable exponent. The authors give a systematic treatment of the basic mathematical theory and constructive meth

Long-Term Variability of Surface Albedo and Its Correlation with Climatic Variables over Antarctica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minji Seo

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The cryosphere is an essential part of the earth system for understanding climate change. Components of the cryosphere, such as ice sheets and sea ice, are generally decreasing over time. However, previous studies have indicated differing trends between the Antarctic and the Arctic. The South Pole also shows internal differences in trends. These phenomena indicate the importance of continuous observation of the Polar Regions. Albedo is a main indicator for analyzing Antarctic climate change and is an important variable with regard to the radiation budget because it can provide positive feedback on polar warming and is related to net radiation and atmospheric heating in the mainly snow- and ice-covered Antarctic. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed long-term temporal and spatial variability of albedo and investigated the interrelationships between albedo and climatic variables over Antarctica. We used broadband surface albedo data from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring and data for several climatic variables such as temperature and Antarctic oscillation index (AAO during the period of 1983 to 2009. Time series analysis and correlation analysis were performed through linear regression using albedo and climatic variables. The results of this research indicated that albedo shows two trends, west trend and an east trend, over Antarctica. Most of the western side of Antarctica showed a negative trend of albedo (about −0.0007 to −0.0015 year−1, but the other side showed a positive trend (about 0.0006 year−1. In addition, albedo and surface temperature had a negative correlation, but this relationship was weaker in west Antarctica than in east Antarctica. The correlation between albedo and AAO revealed different relationships in the two regions; west Antarctica had a negative correlation and east Antarctica showed a positive correlation. In addition, the correlation between albedo and AAO was weaker in the west. This

Climatic Variables and Malaria Morbidity in Mutale Local Municipality, South Africa: A 19-Year Data Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Adeola, Abiodun M; Botai, Joel O; Rautenbach, Hannes; Adisa, Omolola M; Ncongwane, Katlego P; Botai, Christina M; Adebayo-Ojo, Temitope C

2017-11-08

The north-eastern parts of South Africa, comprising the Limpopo Province, have recorded a sudden rise in the rate of malaria morbidity and mortality in the 2017 malaria season. The epidemiological profiles of malaria, as well as other vector-borne diseases, are strongly associated with climate and environmental conditions. A retrospective understanding of the relationship between climate and the occurrence of malaria may provide insight into the dynamics of the disease's transmission and its persistence in the north-eastern region. In this paper, the association between climatic variables and the occurrence of malaria was studied in the Mutale local municipality in South Africa over a period of 19-year. Time series analysis was conducted on monthly climatic variables and monthly malaria cases in the Mutale municipality for the period of 1998-2017. Spearman correlation analysis was performed and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was developed. Microsoft Excel was used for data cleaning, and statistical software R was used to analyse the data and develop the model. Results show that both climatic variables' and malaria cases' time series exhibited seasonal patterns, showing a number of peaks and fluctuations. Spearman correlation analysis indicated that monthly total rainfall, mean minimum temperature, mean maximum temperature, mean average temperature, and mean relative humidity were significantly and positively correlated with monthly malaria cases in the study area. Regression analysis showed that monthly total rainfall and monthly mean minimum temperature ( R ² = 0.65), at a two-month lagged effect, are the most significant climatic predictors of malaria transmission in Mutale local municipality. A SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model fitted with only malaria cases has a prediction performance of about 51%, and the SARIMAX (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model with climatic variables as exogenous factors has a prediction performance of about 72% in

Spatial and temporal variability of Mediterranean drought events

Science.gov (United States)

Trigo, R.; Sousa, P.; Nieto, R.; Gimeno, L.

2009-04-01

The original Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and a recent adaptation to European soil characteristics, the Self Calibrated PDSI (or scPDSI) proposed by Schrier et al (2005) were used. We have computed monthly, seasonal and annual trends between 1901 and 2000 but also for the first and second halves of the 20th century. Results were represented only when achieving a minimum level of statistical significance (either 5% or 10% using a Mann-Kendall test) and confirm that the majority of the western and central Mediterranean is getting drier in the last decades of the 20th century while Turkey is generally getting wetter (Trigo et al., 2006). The spatio-temporal variability of these indices was evaluated with an EOF analysis, in order to reduce the large dimensionality of the fields under analysis. Spatial representation of the first EOF patterns shows that EOF 1 covers the entire Mediterranean basin (16.4% of EV), while EOF2 is dominated by a W-E dipole (10% EV). The following EOF patterns present smaller scale features, and explain smaller amounts of variance. The EOF patterns have also facilitated the definition of four sub-regions with large socio-economic relevance: 1) Iberia, 2) Italian Peninsula, 3) Balkans and 4) Turkey. The inter-annual variability of the regional spatial droughts indices for each region was analyzed separately. We have also performed an evaluation of their eventual links with large-scale atmospheric circulation indices that affect the Mediterranean basin, namely the NAO, EA, and SCAND. Finally we have evaluated the main sources of moisture affecting two drought prone areas in the western (Iberia) and eastern (Balkans) Mediterranean. This analysis was performed by means of backward tracking the air masses that ultimately reach these two regions using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART (Stohl et al., 1998) and meteorological analysis data from the ECMWF to track atmospheric moisture. This was done for a five-year period (2000

Analysis of Tourism Resource Dependency on Collaboration among Local Governments in the Multi-Regional Tourism Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ha Dong-Won

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to derive the multidimensional attributes of resource dependency of local governments in multi-regional tourism development. The questionnaire was designed based on resource dependence theory and related literature, and five factors of resource dependency were derived by analysis of the questionnaire for the civil servants who participated in the Jirisan area tourism development project which is a representative multi-regional tourism development project of Korea. The measured values of the derived possession, importance, discretion, alternative, and connection were found in various ways according to the project characteristics such as project scale and visitors in the Jirisan area tourism development project. This shows that a variety of variables have an effect on resource dependency.

Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Cardoso, Rita M; Soares, Pedro M M; Cancela, Javier J; Pinto, Joaquim G; Santos, João A

2014-01-01

The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

Identification and verification of hybridoma-derived monoclonal antibody variable region sequences using recombinant DNA technology and mass spectrometry

Science.gov (United States)

Antibody engineering requires the identification of antigen binding domains or variable regions (VR) unique to each antibody. It is the VR that define the unique antigen binding properties and proper sequence identification is essential for functional evaluation and performance of recombinant antibo...

Adaptation of rainfed agriculture to climatic variability in the Mixteca Alta Region of Oaxaca, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Rogé, P.; Friedman, A. R.; Astier, M.; Altieri, M.

2015-12-01

The traditional management systems of the Mixteca Alta Region of Oaxaca, Mexico offer historical lessons about resilience to climatic variability. We interviewed small farmers to inquire about the dynamics of abandonment and persistence of a traditional management systems. We interpret farmers' narratives from a perspective of general agroecological resilience. In addition, we facilitated workshops in small farmers described their adaptation to past climate challenges and identified 14 indicators that they subsequently used to evaluate the condition of their agroecosystems. The most recent years presented increasingly extreme climatic and socioeconomic hardships: increased temperatures, delayed rainy seasons, reduced capacity of soils to retain soil moisture, changing cultural norms, and reduced rural labor. Farmers reported that their cropping systems were changing for multiple reasons: more drought, later rainfall onset, decreased rural labor, and introduced labor-saving technologies. Examination of climate data found that farmers' climate narratives were largely consistent with the observational record. There have been increases in temperature and rainfall intensity, and an increase in rainfall seasonality that may be perceived as later rainfall onset. Farmers ranked landscape-scale indicators as more marginal than farmer management or soil quality indicators. From this analysis, farmers proposed strategies to improve the ability of their agroecosystems to cope with climatic variability. Notably, they recognized that social organizing and education are required for landscape-level indicators to be improved. Transformative change is required to develop novel cropping systems and complementary activities to agriculture that will allow for farming to be sustained in the face of these challenges. Climate change adaptation by small farmers involves much more than just a set of farming practices, but also community action to tackle collective problems.

Use of variability modes to evaluate AR4 climate models over the Euro-Atlantic region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Casado, M.J.; Pastor, M.A. [Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET), Madrid (Spain)

2012-01-15

This paper analyzes the ability of the multi-model simulations from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to simulate the main leading modes of variability over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter: the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Scandinavian mode (SCAND), the East/Atlantic Oscillation (EA) and the East Atlantic/Western Russia mode (EA/WR). These modes of variability have been evaluated both spatially, by analyzing the intensity and location of their anomaly centres, as well as temporally, by focusing on the probability density functions and e-folding time scales. The choice of variability modes as a tool for climate model assessment can be justified by the fact that modes of variability determine local climatic conditions and their likely change may have important implications for future climate changes. It is found that all the models considered are able to simulate reasonably well these four variability modes, the SCAND being the mode which is best spatially simulated. From a temporal point of view the NAO and SCAND modes are the best simulated. UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the models best at reproducing spatial characteristics, whereas CCSM3 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best ones with regard to the temporal features. GISS-AOM is the model showing the worst performance, in terms of both spatial and temporal features. These results may bring new insight into the selection and use of specific models to simulate Euro-Atlantic climate, with some models being clearly more successful in simulating patterns of temporal and spatial variability than others. (orig.)

Delayed Gadolinium-Enhanced MRI of Cartilage (dGEMRIC): Intra- and Interobserver Variability in Standardized Drawing of Regions of Interest

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tiderius, C.J.; Tjoernstrand, J.; Aakeson, P.; Soedersten, K.; Dahlberg, L.; Leander, P.

2004-01-01

Purpose: To establish the reproducibility of a standardized region of interest (ROI) drawing procedure in delayed gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of cartilage (dGEMRIC). Material and Methods: A large ROI in lateral and medial femoral weight-bearing cartilage was drawn in images of 12 healthy male volunteers by 6 investigators with different skills in MRI. The procedure was done twice, with a 1-week interval. Calculated T1-values were evaluated for intra- and interobserver variability. Results: The mean interobserver variability for both compartments ranged between 1.3% and 2.3% for the 6 different investigators without correlation to their experience in MRI. Post-contrast intra-observer variability was low in both the lateral and the medial femoral cartilage, 2.6% and 1.5%, respectively. The larger variability in lateral than in medial cartilage was related to slightly longer and thinner ROIs. Conclusion: Intra-observer variability and interobserver variability are both low when a large standardized ROI is used in dGEMRIC. The experience of the investigator does not affect the variability, which further supports a clinical applicability of the method

Expanded flux variability analysis on metabolic network of Escherichia coli

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

CHEN Tong; XIE ZhengWei; OUYANG Qi

2009-01-01

Flux balance analysis,based on the mass conservation law in a cellular organism,has been extensively employed to study the interplay between structures and functions of cellular metabolic networks.Consequently,the phenotypes of the metabolism can be well elucidated.In this paper,we introduce the Expanded Flux Variability Analysis (EFVA) to characterize the intrinsic nature of metabolic reactions,such as flexibility,modularity and essentiality,by exploring the trend of the range,the maximum and the minimum flux of reactions.We took the metabolic network of Escherichia coli as an example and analyzed the variability of reaction fluxes under different growth rate constraints.The average variability of all reactions decreases dramatically when the growth rate increases.Consider the noise effect on the metabolic system,we thus argue that the microorganism may practically grow under a suboptimal state.Besides,under the EFVA framework,the reactions are easily to be grouped into catabolic and anabolic groups.And the anabolic groups can be further assigned to specific biomass constitute.We also discovered the growth rate dependent essentiality of reactions.

Sequence variability is correlated with weak immunogenicity in Streptococcus pyogenes M protein

Science.gov (United States)

Lannergård, Jonas; Kristensen, Bodil M; Gustafsson, Mattias C U; Persson, Jenny J; Norrby-Teglund, Anna; Stålhammar-Carlemalm, Margaretha; Lindahl, Gunnar

2015-01-01

The M protein of Streptococcus pyogenes, a major bacterial virulence factor, has an amino-terminal hypervariable region (HVR) that is a target for type-specific protective antibodies. Intriguingly, the HVR elicits a weak antibody response, indicating that it escapes host immunity by two mechanisms, sequence variability and weak immunogenicity. However, the properties influencing the immunogenicity of regions in an M protein remain poorly understood. Here, we studied the antibody response to different regions of the classical M1 and M5 proteins, in which not only the HVR but also the adjacent fibrinogen-binding B repeat region exhibits extensive sequence divergence. Analysis of antisera from S. pyogenes-infected patients, infected mice, and immunized mice showed that both the HVR and the B repeat region elicited weak antibody responses, while the conserved carboxy-terminal part was immunodominant. Thus, we identified a correlation between sequence variability and weak immunogenicity for M protein regions. A potential explanation for the weak immunogenicity was provided by the demonstration that protease digestion selectively eliminated the HVR-B part from whole M protein-expressing bacteria. These data support a coherent model, in which the entire variable HVR-B part evades antibody attack, not only by sequence variability but also by weak immunogenicity resulting from protease attack. PMID:26175306

Variable precision rough set for multiple decision attribute analysis

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Lai; Kin; Keung

2008-01-01

A variable precision rough set (VPRS) model is used to solve the multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem with multiple conflicting decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. By introducing confidence measures and a β-reduct, the VPRS model can rationally solve the conflicting decision analysis problem with multiple decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. For illustration, a medical diagnosis example is utilized to show the feasibility of the VPRS model in solving the MADA...

Role of climate variability in the heatstroke death rates of Kanto region in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Akihiko, Takaya; Morioka, Yushi; Behera, Swadhin K.

2014-07-01

The death toll by heatstroke in Japan, especially in Kanto region, has sharply increased since 1994 together with large interannual variability. The surface air temperature and humidity observed during boreal summers of 1980-2010 were examined to understand the role of climate in the death toll. The extremely hot days, when the daily maximum temperature exceeds 35°C, are more strongly associated with the death toll than the conventional Wet Bulb Globe Temperature index. The extremely hot days tend to be associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation or the Indian Ocean Dipole, suggesting a potential link with tropical climate variability to the heatstroke related deaths. Also, the influence of these climate modes on the death toll has strengthened since 1994 probably related to global warming. It is possible to develop early warning systems based on seasonal climate predictions since recent climate models show excellent predictability skills for those climate modes.

Characterization of Campylobacter jejuni applying flaA short variable region sequencing, multilocus sequencing and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Josefsen, Mathilde Hartmann; Bonnichsen, Lise; Larsson, Jonas

flaA short variable region sequencing and phenetic Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy was applied on a collection of 102 Campylobacter jejuni isolated from continuous sampling of organic, free range geese and chickens. FTIR has been shown to serve as a valuable tool in typing...

Immunoglobulin variable region sequences of two human monoclonal antibodies directed to an onco-developmental carbohydrate antigen, lactotetraosylceramide (LcOse4Cer).

Science.gov (United States)

Yago, K; Zenita, K; Ohwaki, I; Harada, R; Nozawa, S; Tsukazaki, K; Iwamori, M; Endo, N; Yasuda, N; Okuma, M

1993-11-01

A human monoclonal antibody, 11-50, was generated and was shown to recognize an onco-developmental carbohydrate antigen, LcOse4Cer. The isotype of this antibody was IgM, lambda, similar to the previously known human anti-LcOse4 antibodies, such as IgMWOO and HMST-1. We raised a murine anti-idiotypic antibody G3 (IgG1, kappa) against 11-50, and tested its reactivity towards the affinity purified human polyclonal anti-LcOse4 antibodies prepared from pooled human sera using a Gal beta 1-->3GlcNAc beta-immobilized column. The results indicated that at least a part of the human polyclonal anti-LcOse4 antibodies shared the G3 idiotype with 11-50. We further analyzed the sequence of variable regions of the two anti-LcOse4 antibodies, 11-50 and HMST-1. Sequence analysis of the heavy chain variable regions indicated that the VH regions of these two antibodies were highly homologous to each other (93.5% at the nucleic acid level), and these antibodies utilized the germline genes VH1.9III and hv3005f3 as the VH segments, which are closely related germline genes of the VHIII family. It was noted that these germline VH genes are frequently utilized in fetal B cells. The JH region of both antibodies was encoded by the JH4 gene. For the light chain, the V lambda segments of the two antibodies were 96.3% homologous to each other at the nucleic acid level. The V lambda segments of both antibodies showed the highest homology to the rearranged V lambda gene called V lambda II.DS among reported V lambda genes, while the exact germline V lambda genes encoding the two antibodies were not yet registered in available sequence databanks. The amino acid sequences of the J lambda segments of both antibodies were identical. These results indicate that the two human antibodies recognizing the onco-developmental carbohydrate antigen Lc4 are encoded by the same or very homologous germline genes.

Automated detection of regions of interest for tissue microarray experiments: an image texture analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karaçali, Bilge; Tözeren, Aydin

2007-01-01

Recent research with tissue microarrays led to a rapid progress toward quantifying the expressions of large sets of biomarkers in normal and diseased tissue. However, standard procedures for sampling tissue for molecular profiling have not yet been established. This study presents a high throughput analysis of texture heterogeneity on breast tissue images for the purpose of identifying regions of interest in the tissue for molecular profiling via tissue microarray technology. Image texture of breast histology slides was described in terms of three parameters: the percentage of area occupied in an image block by chromatin (B), percentage occupied by stroma-like regions (P), and a statistical heterogeneity index H commonly used in image analysis. Texture parameters were defined and computed for each of the thousands of image blocks in our dataset using both the gray scale and color segmentation. The image blocks were then classified into three categories using the texture feature parameters in a novel statistical learning algorithm. These categories are as follows: image blocks specific to normal breast tissue, blocks specific to cancerous tissue, and those image blocks that are non-specific to normal and disease states. Gray scale and color segmentation techniques led to identification of same regions in histology slides as cancer-specific. Moreover the image blocks identified as cancer-specific belonged to those cell crowded regions in whole section image slides that were marked by two pathologists as regions of interest for further histological studies. These results indicate the high efficiency of our automated method for identifying pathologic regions of interest on histology slides. Automation of critical region identification will help minimize the inter-rater variability among different raters (pathologists) as hundreds of tumors that are used to develop an array have typically been evaluated (graded) by different pathologists. The region of interest

Observations of regional and local variability in the optical properties of maritime clouds

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

White, A.B. [Univ. of Colorado at Boulder/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States); Fairall, C.W. [Environmental Technology Lab., Boulder, CO (United States)

1996-04-01

White and Fairall (1995) calculated the optical properties of the marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds observed during the Atlantic Stratocumulus Transition Experiment (ASTEX) and compared their results with the results obtained by Fairall et al. for the MBL clouds observed during the First International Satellite Climatology Program (ISSCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE). They found a factor of two difference in the optical depth versus liquid water relationship that applies to the clouds observed in each case. In the present study, we present evidence to support this difference. We also investigate the local variability exhibited in the ASTEX optical properties using measurements of the boundary layer aerosol concentration.

Modeling Psychological Attributes in Psychology – An Epistemological Discussion: Network Analysis vs. Latent Variables

Science.gov (United States)

Guyon, Hervé; Falissard, Bruno; Kop, Jean-Luc

2017-01-01

Network Analysis is considered as a new method that challenges Latent Variable models in inferring psychological attributes. With Network Analysis, psychological attributes are derived from a complex system of components without the need to call on any latent variables. But the ontological status of psychological attributes is not adequately defined with Network Analysis, because a psychological attribute is both a complex system and a property emerging from this complex system. The aim of this article is to reappraise the legitimacy of latent variable models by engaging in an ontological and epistemological discussion on psychological attributes. Psychological attributes relate to the mental equilibrium of individuals embedded in their social interactions, as robust attractors within complex dynamic processes with emergent properties, distinct from physical entities located in precise areas of the brain. Latent variables thus possess legitimacy, because the emergent properties can be conceptualized and analyzed on the sole basis of their manifestations, without exploring the upstream complex system. However, in opposition with the usual Latent Variable models, this article is in favor of the integration of a dynamic system of manifestations. Latent Variables models and Network Analysis thus appear as complementary approaches. New approaches combining Latent Network Models and Network Residuals are certainly a promising new way to infer psychological attributes, placing psychological attributes in an inter-subjective dynamic approach. Pragmatism-realism appears as the epistemological framework required if we are to use latent variables as representations of psychological attributes. PMID:28572780

Short-term variability of Johor River discharge based on wavelet analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad, N.; Kamaruddin, S. A.; Heryansyah, A.

2015-02-01

River discharge provides a direct measure of water quantity and availability of water for specific uses. It also provides the basis for understanding river basin processes and is essential for interpreting and understanding river flow characteristics. This study investigates the temporal variability of river discharge records of Johor River. Wavelet analysis of discharge records for 30 years was carried out to characterize the river flow variability. Our results indicate that Johor River discharge data shows a significant short-term variability of between 0.6 to 2.5 years.

PISA 2012 Analysis of School Variables Affecting Problem-Solving Competency: Turkey-Serbia Comparison

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emine YAVUZ

2017-12-01

Full Text Available According to the OECD's PISA 2012 Turkey problem-solving report, Turkey and Serbia are at the same mathematical literacy level. However, Serbia's average of problem-solving competency is said to be higher than Turkey's. In this study, school variables that affect problem-solving competency of the two countries were examined and compared. The method of the study was causal comparison method, and HLM analysis was performed on data of 4494 students from 147 schools in Turkey sample and 4059 students from 132 schools in Serbia sample separately. As a result of HLM analysis, "obstacle and family donation" variable for Serbia and "abandon, teacher morale and mathematics competition" variable for Turkey were statistically significant. Although it was found that for each countries different variables influence the problem-solving competency, it was quite remarkable that these variables are in common in that they are components of the school climate concept.

Relationship between rice yield and climate variables in southwest Nigeria using multiple linear regression and support vector machine analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Oguntunde, Philip G; Lischeid, Gunnar; Dietrich, Ottfried

2018-03-01

This study examines the variations of climate variables and rice yield and quantifies the relationships among them using multiple linear regression, principal component analysis, and support vector machine (SVM) analysis in southwest Nigeria. The climate and yield data used was for a period of 36 years between 1980 and 2015. Similar to the observed decrease (P  1 and explained 83.1% of the total variance of predictor variables. The SVM regression function using the scores of the first principal component explained about 75% of the variance in rice yield data and linear regression about 64%. SVM regression between annual solar radiation values and yield explained 67% of the variance. Only the first component of the principal component analysis (PCA) exhibited a clear long-term trend and sometimes short-term variance similar to that of rice yield. Short-term fluctuations of the scores of the PC1 are closely coupled to those of rice yield during the 1986-1993 and the 2006-2013 periods thereby revealing the inter-annual sensitivity of rice production to climate variability. Solar radiation stands out as the climate variable of highest influence on rice yield, and the influence was especially strong during monsoon and post-monsoon periods, which correspond to the vegetative, booting, flowering, and grain filling stages in the study area. The outcome is expected to provide more in-depth regional-specific climate-rice linkage for screening of better cultivars that can positively respond to future climate fluctuations as well as providing information that may help optimized planting dates for improved radiation use efficiency in the study area.

Nonlinear canonical correlation analysis with k sets of variables

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Burg, Eeke; de Leeuw, Jan

1987-01-01

The multivariate technique OVERALS is introduced as a non-linear generalization of canonical correlation analysis (CCA). First, two sets CCA is introduced. Two sets CCA is a technique that computes linear combinations of sets of variables that correlate in an optimal way. Two sets CCA is then

Spatiotemporal variability and meteorological control of particulate matter pollution in a large open-pit coal mining region in Colombia

Science.gov (United States)

Morales Rincon, L. A.; Jimenez-Pizarro, R.; Porras-Diaz, H.

2012-12-01

Luis Morales-Rincon (1), Hernan Porras-Diaz (1), Rodrigo Jiménez (2,*) (1) Geomatic Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad Industrial de Santander, Bucaramanga, Santander 680002, Colombia; (2) Air Quality Research Group, Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota, DC 111321, Colombia *Corresponding author: phone +57-1-316-5000 ext. 14099, fax +57-1-316-5334, e-mail rjimenezp@unal.edu.co The semi-desertic area of Central Cesar, Colombia, produced approximately 44 million tons of coal in 2011. This mining activity has been intensively developed since 2005. There are currently 7 large-scale mining projects in that area. The coal industry has strongly impacted not only the ecosystems, but also the neighboring communities around the coal mines. The main goal of the research work was to characterize spatial and temporal variations of particulate matter (total suspended particulates - TSP - and particulate matter below 10 μm - PM10) as measured at various air quality monitoring stations in Cesar's coal industry region as well as to study the relationship between these variability and meteorological factors. The analysis of the meteorological time series of revealed a complex atmospheric circulation in the region. No clear repetitive diurnal circulation patterns were observed, i.e. statistical mean patterns do not physically represent the actual atmospheric circulation. We attribute this complexity to the interdependence between local and synoptic phenomena over a low altitude, relatively flat area. On the other hand, a comparison of air quality in the mining area with a perimeter station indicates that coal industry in central Cesar has a mayor effect on the levels of particulate matter in the region. Particulate matter concentration is highly variable throughout the year. The strong correlation between TSP and PM10 indicates that secondary aerosols are of minor importance. Furthermore, particle

Accounting for CO2 variability over East Asia with a regional joint inversion system and its preliminary evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Kou, Xingxia; Tian, Xiangjun; Zhang, Meigen; Peng, Zhen; Zhang, Xiaoling

2017-10-01

A regional surface carbon dioxide (CO2) flux inversion system, the Tan-Tracker-Region, was developed by incorporating an assimilation scheme into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) regional chemical transport model to resolve fine-scale CO2 variability over East Asia. The proper orthogonal decomposition-based ensemble four-dimensional variational data assimilation approach (POD-4DVar) is the core algorithm for the joint assimilation framework, and simultaneous assimilations of CO2 concentrations and surface CO2 fluxes are applied to help reduce the uncertainty in initial CO2 concentrations. A persistence dynamical model was developed to describe the evolution of the surface CO2 fluxes and help avoid the "signal-to-noise" problem; thus, CO2 fluxes could be estimated as a whole at the model grid scale, with better use of observation information. The performance of the regional inversion system was evaluated through a group of single-observation-based observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). The results of the experiments suggest that a reliable performance of Tan-Tracker-Region is dependent on certain assimilation parameter choices, for example, an optimized window length of approximately 3 h, an ensemble size of approximately 100, and a covariance localization radius of approximately 320 km. This is probably due to the strong diurnal variation and spatial heterogeneity in the fine-scale CMAQ simulation, which could affect the performance of the regional inversion system. In addition, because all observations can be artificially obtained in OSSEs, the performance of Tan-Tracker-Region was further evaluated through different densities of the artificial observation network in different CO2 flux situations. The results indicate that more observation sites would be useful to systematically improve the estimation of CO2 concentration and flux in large areas over the model domain. The work presented here forms a foundation for future research in which a

Analysis, Test and Verification in The Presence of Variability (Dagstuhl Seminar 13091)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2014-01-01

-aware tool chains. We brought together 46 key researchers from three continents, working on quality assurance challenges that arise from introducing variability, and some who do not work with variability, but that are experts in their respective areas in the broader domain of software analysis or testing...

Sensitivity analysis and power for instrumental variable studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xuran; Jiang, Yang; Zhang, Nancy R; Small, Dylan S

2018-03-31

In observational studies to estimate treatment effects, unmeasured confounding is often a concern. The instrumental variable (IV) method can control for unmeasured confounding when there is a valid IV. To be a valid IV, a variable needs to be independent of unmeasured confounders and only affect the outcome through affecting the treatment. When applying the IV method, there is often concern that a putative IV is invalid to some degree. We present an approach to sensitivity analysis for the IV method which examines the sensitivity of inferences to violations of IV validity. Specifically, we consider sensitivity when the magnitude of association between the putative IV and the unmeasured confounders and the direct effect of the IV on the outcome are limited in magnitude by a sensitivity parameter. Our approach is based on extending the Anderson-Rubin test and is valid regardless of the strength of the instrument. A power formula for this sensitivity analysis is presented. We illustrate its usage via examples about Mendelian randomization studies and its implications via a comparison of using rare versus common genetic variants as instruments. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Multi-regional input–output model and ecological network analysis for regional embodied energy accounting in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Yan; Zheng, Hongmei; Yang, Zhifeng; Su, Meirong; Liu, Gengyuan; Li, Yanxian

2015-01-01

Chinese regions frequently exchange materials, but regional differences in economic development create unbalanced flows of these resources. In this study, we examined energy by assessing embodied energy consumption to describe the energy-flow structure in China's seven regions. Based on multi-regional monetary input–output tables and energy statistical yearbooks for Chinese provinces in 2002 and 2007, we accounted for both direct and indirect energy consumption, respectively, and the integral input and output of the provinces. Most integral inputs of energy flowed from north to south or from east to west, whereas integral output flows were mainly from northeast to southwest. This differed from the direct flows, which were predominantly from north to south and west to east. This demonstrates the importance of calculating both direct and indirect energy flows. Analysis of the distance and direction traveled by the energy consumption centers of gravity showed that the centers for embodied energy consumption and inputs moved southeast because of the movements of the centers of the Eastern region. However, the center for outputs moved northeast because the movement of the Central region. These analyses provide a basis for identifying how regional economic development policies influence the embodied energy consumption and its flows among regions. - Highlights: • We integrated multi-regional input–output analysis with ecological network analysis. • We accounted for both direct and indirect energy consumption. • The centers of gravity for embodied energy flows moved southeast from 2002 to 2007. • The results support planning of energy consumption and energy flows among regions.

Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Short, W.; Sullivan, P.; Mai, T.; Mowers, M.; Uriarte, C.; Blair, N.; Heimiller, D.; Martinez, A.

2011-12-01

The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) is a deterministic optimization model of the deployment of electric power generation technologies and transmission infrastructure throughout the contiguous United States into the future. The model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Strategic Energy Analysis Center, is designed to analyze the critical energy issues in the electric sector, especially with respect to potential energy policies, such as clean energy and renewable energy standards or carbon restrictions. ReEDS provides a detailed treatment of electricity-generating and electrical storage technologies and specifically addresses a variety of issues related to renewable energy technologies, including accessibility and cost of transmission, regional quality of renewable resources, seasonal and diurnal generation profiles, variability of wind and solar power, and the influence of variability on the reliability of the electrical grid. ReEDS addresses these issues through a highly discretized regional structure, explicit statistical treatment of the variability in wind and solar output over time, and consideration of ancillary services' requirements and costs.

Using principal component analysis to understand the variability of PDS 456

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, M. L.; Reeves, J. N.; Matzeu, G. A.; Buisson, D. J. K.; Fabian, A. C.

2018-02-01

We present a spectral-variability analysis of the low-redshift quasar PDS 456 using principal component analysis. In the XMM-Newton data, we find a strong peak in the first principal component at the energy of the Fe absorption line from the highly blueshifted outflow. This indicates that the absorption feature is more variable than the continuum, and that it is responding to the continuum. We find qualitatively different behaviour in the Suzaku data, which is dominated by changes in the column density of neutral absorption. In this case, we find no evidence of the absorption produced by the highly ionized gas being correlated with this variability. Additionally, we perform simulations of the source variability, and demonstrate that PCA can trivially distinguish between outflow variability correlated, anticorrelated and un-correlated with the continuum flux. Here, the observed anticorrelation between the absorption line equivalent width and the continuum flux may be due to the ionization of the wind responding to the continuum. Finally, we compare our results with those found in the narrow-line Seyfert 1 IRAS 13224-3809. We find that the Fe K UFO feature is sharper and more prominent in PDS 456, but that it lacks the lower energy features from lighter elements found in IRAS 13224-3809, presumably due to differences in ionization.

Immunoglobulin Heavy Chain Variable Region and Major Histocompatibility Region Genes Are Linked to Induced Graves' Disease in Females From Two Very Large Families of Recombinant Inbred Mice

Science.gov (United States)

Aliesky, Holly; Banuelos, Bianca; Magana, Jessica; Williams, Robert W.; Rapoport, Basil

2014-01-01

Graves' hyperthyroidism is caused by antibodies to the TSH receptor (TSHR) that mimic thyroid stimulation by TSH. Stimulating TSHR antibodies and hyperthyroidism can be induced by immunizing mice with adenovirus expressing the human TSHR A-subunit. Prior analysis of induced Graves' disease in small families of recombinant inbred (RI) female mice demonstrated strong genetic control but did not resolve trait loci for TSHR antibodies or elevated serum T4. We investigated the genetic basis for induced Graves' disease in female mice of two large RI families and combined data with earlier findings to provide phenotypes for 178 genotypes. TSHR antibodies measured by inhibition of TSH binding to its receptor were highly significantly linked in the BXD set to the major histocompatibility region (chromosome 17), consistent with observations in 3 other RI families. In the LXS family, we detected linkage between T4 levels after TSHR-adenovirus immunization and the Ig heavy chain variable region (Igvh, chromosome 12). This observation is a key finding because components of the antigen binding region of Igs determine antibody specificity and have been previously linked to induced thyroid-stimulating antibodies. Data from the LXS family provide the first evidence in mice of a direct link between induced hyperthyroidism and Igvh genes. A role for major histocompatibility genes has now been established for genetic susceptibility to Graves' disease in both humans and mice. Future studies using arrays incorporating variation in the complex human Ig gene locus will be necessary to determine whether Igvh genes are also linked to Graves' disease in humans. PMID:25051451

Continental and Marine Environmental changes in Europe induced by Global Climate variability and Regional Paleogeography Changes

OpenAIRE

Popescu , Speranta - Maria

2008-01-01

version originale; My PhD and post-doctorate researches have focused on paleoclimatic, paleogeographical and paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the Mediterranean Basin and its adjacent seas (i.e. the residual former Paratethys) since 11 Ma. During this time-interval the Mediterranean marine and continental environments were affected by significant paleogeographic changes, forced by global climate and sea-level variability, plate tectonics and regional uplift of Alps s.l. and Carpathians. Tw...

Hydrogeological approach to the regional analysis of low flow in medium and small streams of the hilly and mountainous areas of Serbia

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Nikić Zoran

2006-01-01

Full Text Available During the long rainless spells of the dry season, flows in medium and small streams get reduced to what is generally known as "low flow". For ungauged streams, the controlling "low flows" are determined using the regional analysis method. In the presently described exploration, the method applied was based on the assumption that dry weather discharges in medium and small rivers depended on the hydrogeological conditions. The controlling effect of hydrogeology on the natural low flow in medium and small streams of the hilly and mountainous part of Serbia was analyzed applying the theory of multiple linear regression. The thirty-day minimum mean 80 and 95 per cent exceedance flows were taken for dependent variables, and quantified hydrogeological elements as independent variables. The analysis covered streams that had small or medium size catchment areas. The treated example encompassed sixty-one gauged catchments. The resulting regional relations for the thirty day minimum mean 80 and 95 per cent exceedance flows are presented in this paper. The quality of the established relation was controlled by relevant statistic tests.

ZnO crystals obtained by electrodeposition: Statistical analysis of most important process variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cembrero, Jesus; Busquets-Mataix, David

2009-01-01

In this paper a comparative study by means of a statistical analysis of the main process variables affecting ZnO crystal electrodeposition is presented. ZnO crystals were deposited on two different substrates, silicon wafer and indium tin oxide. The control variables were substrate types, electrolyte concentration, temperature, exposition time and current density. The morphologies of the different substrates were observed using scanning electron microscopy. The percentage of substrate area covered by ZnO deposit was calculated by computational image analysis. The design of the applied experiments was based on a two-level factorial analysis involving a series of 32 experiments and an analysis of variance. Statistical results reveal that variables exerting a significant influence on the area covered by ZnO deposit are electrolyte concentration, substrate type and time of deposition, together with a combined two-factor interaction between temperature and current density. However, morphology is also influenced by surface roughness of the substrates

Variability of the western Galician upwelling system (NW Spain) during an intensively sampled annual cycle. An EOF analysis approach

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera, J. L.; Rosón, G.; Varela, R. A.; Piedracoba, S.

2008-07-01

The key features of the western Galician shelf hydrography and dynamics are analyzed on a solid statistical and experimental basis. The results allowed us to gather together information dispersed in previous oceanographic works of the region. Empirical orthogonal functions analysis and a canonical correlation analysis were applied to a high-resolution dataset collected from 47 surveys done on a weekly frequency from May 2001 to May 2002. The main results of these analyses are summarized bellow. Salinity, temperature and the meridional component of the residual current are correlated with the relevant local forcings (the meridional coastal wind component and the continental run-off) and with a remote forcing (the meridional temperature gradient at latitude 37°N). About 80% of the salinity and temperature total variability over the shelf, and 37% of the residual meridional current total variability are explained by two EOFs for each variable. Up to 22% of the temperature total variability and 14% of the residual meridional current total variability is devoted to the set up of cross-shore gradients of the thermohaline properties caused by the wind-induced Ekman transport. Up to 11% and 10%, respectively, is related to the variability of the meridional temperature gradient at the Western Iberian Winter Front. About 30% of the temperature total variability can be explained by the development and erosion of the seasonal thermocline and by the seasonal variability of the thermohaline properties of the central waters. This thermocline presented unexpected low salinity values due to the trapping during spring and summer of the high continental inputs from the River Miño recorded in 2001. The low salinity plumes can be traced on the Galician shelf during almost all the annual cycle; they tend to be extended throughout the entire water column under downwelling conditions and concentrate in the surface layer when upwelling favourable winds blow. Our evidences point to the

Identification and verification of hybridoma-derived monoclonal antibody variable region sequences using recombinant DNA technology and mass spectrometry.

Science.gov (United States)

Babrak, Lmar; McGarvey, Jeffery A; Stanker, Larry H; Hnasko, Robert

2017-10-01

Antibody engineering requires the identification of antigen binding domains or variable regions (VR) unique to each antibody. It is the VR that define the unique antigen binding properties and proper sequence identification is essential for functional evaluation and performance of recombinant antibodies (rAb). This determination can be achieved by sequence analysis of immunoglobulin (Ig) transcripts obtained from a monoclonal antibody (MAb) producing hybridoma and subsequent expression of a rAb. However the polyploidy nature of a hybridoma cell often results in the added expression of aberrant immunoglobulin-like transcripts or even production of anomalous antibodies which can confound production of rAb. An incorrect VR sequence will result in a non-functional rAb and de novo assembly of Ig primary structure without a sequence map is challenging. To address these problems, we have developed a methodology which combines: 1) selective PCR amplification of VR from both the heavy and light chain IgG from hybridoma, 2) molecular cloning and DNA sequence analysis and 3) tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) on enzyme digests obtained from the purified IgG. Peptide analysis proceeds by evaluating coverage of the predicted primary protein sequence provided by the initial DNA maps for the VR. This methodology serves to both identify and verify the primary structure of the MAb VR for production as rAb. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Variability and budget of CO2 in Europe: analysis of the CAATER airborne campaigns - Part 1: Observed variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xueref-Remy, I.; Messager, C.; Ramonet, M.; Paris, J.D.; Ciais, P.; Filippi, D.; Pastel, M.; Nedelec, P.

2011-01-01

help to identify the origin of fossil fuel emissions in the PBL even when distanced by several days/hundreds of kms from their sources. We have compared airborne CO 2 observations to nearby ground station measurements and thereby, confirmed that measurements taken in the lower few meters of the PBL (low-level ground stations) are representative of the local scale, while those located in the free troposphere (FT) (mountain stations) are representative of atmospheric CO 2 regionally on a scale of a few hundred kilometers. Stations located several 100 km away from each other differ from a few ppm in their measurements indicating the existence of a gradient within the free troposphere. Observations at stations located on top of small mountains may match the airborne data if the sampled air comes from the FT rather than coming up from the valley. Finally, the analysis of the CO 2 vertical variability conducted on the 14 profiles recorded in each campaign shows a variability at least 5 to 8 times higher in the PBL (the 1- standard deviation associated to the CO 2 mean of all profiles within the PBL is 4.0 ppm and 5.7 ppm for CAATER-1 and CAATER-2, respectively) than in the FT (within the FT, 1-σ is 0.5 ppm and 1.1 ppm for CAATER-1 and CAATER-2, respectively). The CO 2 jump between the PBL and the FT equals 3.7 ppm for the first campaign and -0.3 ppm for the second campaign. A very striking zonal CO 2 gradient of about 11 ppm was observed in the mid-PBL during CAATER-2, with higher concentrations in the west than in the east. This gradient may originate from differences in atmospheric mixing, ground emission rates or Autumn's earlier start in the west. More airborne campaigns are currently under analysis in the framework of the CARBOEUROPE-IP project to better assess the likelihood of these different hypotheses. In a companion paper (Xueref-Remy et al., 2011, Part 2), a comparison of vertical profiles from observations and several modeling frameworks was conducted for both

Variable selection based near infrared spectroscopy quantitative and qualitative analysis on wheat wet gluten

Science.gov (United States)

Lü, Chengxu; Jiang, Xunpeng; Zhou, Xingfan; Zhang, Yinqiao; Zhang, Naiqian; Wei, Chongfeng; Mao, Wenhua

2017-10-01

Wet gluten is a useful quality indicator for wheat, and short wave near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is a high performance technique with the advantage of economic rapid and nondestructive test. To study the feasibility of short wave NIRS analyzing wet gluten directly from wheat seed, 54 representative wheat seed samples were collected and scanned by spectrometer. 8 spectral pretreatment method and genetic algorithm (GA) variable selection method were used to optimize analysis. Both quantitative and qualitative model of wet gluten were built by partial least squares regression and discriminate analysis. For quantitative analysis, normalization is the optimized pretreatment method, 17 wet gluten sensitive variables are selected by GA, and GA model performs a better result than that of all variable model, with R2V=0.88, and RMSEV=1.47. For qualitative analysis, automatic weighted least squares baseline is the optimized pretreatment method, all variable models perform better results than those of GA models. The correct classification rates of 3 class of 30% wet gluten content are 95.45, 84.52, and 90.00%, respectively. The short wave NIRS technique shows potential for both quantitative and qualitative analysis of wet gluten for wheat seed.

Spatial variability in branchial basket meristics and morphology of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We examined spatial variability in meristic and morphological characteristics of the branchial basket of sardine Sardinops sagax collected from four geographical regions around the southern African coast, namely Namibia and the South African west, south and east coasts. Our analysis tested the hypothesis of three putative ...

Landscape and regional environmental analysis of the spatial distribution of hantavirus human cases in Europe

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Caroline Brigitte Zeimes

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Background: In Europe, the most prevalent hantavirus, Puumala virus, is transmitted by bank voles and causes nephropathia epidemica in human. The European spatial distribution of nephropathia epidemica is investigated here for the first time with a rich set of environmental variables. Methods: The influence of variables at the landscape and regional level is studied through multilevel logistic regression and further information on their effects across the different European ecoregions is obtained by comparing an overall niche model (boosted regression trees with regressions by ecoregion. Results: The presence of nephropathia epidemica is likely in populated regions with well-connected forests, more intense vegetation activity, low soil water content, mild summers and cold winters. In these regions, landscapes with a higher proportion of built-up areas in forest ecotones and lower minimum temperature in winter are expected to be more at risk. Climate and forest connectivity have a stronger effect at the regional level. If variables are staying at their current values, the models predict that nephropathia epidemica may know intensification but should not spread (although Southern Sweden, the Norwegian coast and the Netherlands should be kept under watch.Conclusions: Models indicate that large-scale modeling can lead to a very high predictive power. At large scale, the effect of one variable on disease may follow three response scenarios: the effect may be the same across the entire study area; the effect can change according to the variable value, and the effect can change depending on local specificities. Each of these scenarios impacts large-scale modeling differently.

Paleolimnological reconstruction of environmental variability during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene in the south-east Baltic region

Science.gov (United States)

Kublitskiy, Iurii; Subetto, Dmitriy; Druzhinina, Olga; Kulkova, Marianna; Arslanov, Khikmatula

2016-04-01

The main goal of our research is the high-resolution reconstruction of environmental and climatic changes in SE Baltic region since the Last Glacial Maximum by palaeolimnological data. The 6 objects - lakes and peat-bogs, were studied since 2009 in the Kaliningrad region, Russian Federation. According to palaeolimnological studies of bottom sediments of the Kamyshovoe Lake (N 54°22,6`; E22°42,8`, 189 m a.s.l.), located in the Vishtynets Highland, the south-east part of Kaliningrad district, the environmental and climatic changes after the late glacial have been reconstructed. At that moment the radiocarbon and loss-on-ignition (LOI) data, geochemistry and diatom analysis for the whole sediment core, and pollen analyze for the bottom part of the core have been completed. According to the pollen data the Alleröd interstadial starts at 13 200 cal. yrs BP and is marked by the rising of birch and pine pollen. The transition to the Younger Dryas around 12 700 cal. yrs BP corresponds with the development of patches of shrublands in which light-demanding species, such as juniper, flourished and communities of steppe herbs. The late Preboreal is marked by the appearance of Populus and an increase of the role of grasses in the vegetation cover 11 300-11 100 cal. yrs BP (Druzinina et al., 2015). The Holocene climatic zones have been identified by LOI and geochemistry analyses. The Boreal period started about 10 200 cal. yrs BP, Atlantic around 9100 cal. yrs BP, Subboreal 5800 cal. yrs BP, and Subatlantic 3200 cal. yrs BP (Kublitskiy et al., 2015). During the conference the new palaeolimnological data of environmental variability during the late Pleistocene and Holocene in SE Baltic region will be presented. Acknowledgements The investigations have been granted by the Russian Fund for Basic Research (12-05-33013, 13-05-41457, 15-35-50721). References Druzhinina, O., Subetto, D., Stančikaitė, M., Vaikutienė, G., Kublitsky, J., Arslanov, Kh., 2015. Sediment record from the

Variability, correlation and path coefficient analysis of seedling traits ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Indirect selection is a useful means for improving yield in cotton crop. The objective of the present study was to determine the genetic variability, broad sense heritability, genetic advance and correlation among the six seedling traits and their direct and indirect effects on cotton yield by using path coefficient analysis.

Phytoscreening with SPME: Variability Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Limmer, Matt A; Burken, Joel G

2015-01-01

Phytoscreening has been demonstrated at a variety of sites over the past 15 years as a low-impact, sustainable tool in delineation of shallow groundwater contaminated with chlorinated solvents. Collection of tree cores is rapid and straightforward, but low concentrations in tree tissues requires sensitive analytics. Solid-phase microextraction (SPME) is amenable to the complex matrix while allowing for solvent-less extraction. Accurate quantification requires the absence of competitive sorption, examined here both in laboratory experiments and through comprehensive examination of field data. Analysis of approximately 2,000 trees at numerous field sites also allowed testing of the tree genus and diameter effects on measured tree contaminant concentrations. Collectively, while these variables were found to significantly affect site-adjusted perchloroethylene (PCE) concentrations, the explanatory power of these effects was small (adjusted R(2) = 0.031). 90th quantile chemical concentrations in trees were significantly reduced by increasing Henry's constant and increasing hydrophobicity. Analysis of replicate tree core data showed no correlation between replicate relative standard deviation (RSD) and wood type or tree diameter, with an overall median RSD of 30%. Collectively, these findings indicate SPME is an appropriate technique for sampling and analyzing chlorinated solvents in wood and that phytoscreening is robust against changes in tree type and diameter.

Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions.

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Helder Fraga

Full Text Available The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

CLUSTER ANALYSIS UKRAINIAN REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION BY LEVEL OF INNOVATION

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Roman Shchur

2016-07-01

Full Text Available   SWOT-analysis of the threats and benefits of innovation development strategy of Ivano-Frankivsk region in the context of financial support was сonducted. Methodical approach to determine of public-private partnerships potential that is tool of innovative economic development financing was identified. Cluster analysis of possibilities of forming public-private partnership in a particular region was carried out. Optimal set of problem areas that require urgent solutions and financial security is defined on the basis of cluster approach. It will help to form practical recommendations for the formation of an effective financial mechanism in the regions of Ukraine. Key words: the mechanism of innovation development financial provision, innovation development, public-private partnerships, cluster analysis, innovative development strategy.

DETERMININGS OF FARM WORK ALLOCATION IN BRAZILIAN REGIONS

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Filipe de Morais Cangussu Pessoa

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to analyze the determinings of farm work allocation in Brazilian regions, based on micro data of National Household Sample Survey 2009. For that, the empirical procedure consisted in the use of two models: Confirmatory Factor Analysis and the Logit Model. The model Confirmatory Factor Analysis showed good fit and defined two latent variables: qualification and income. As to the Logit Model, the results showed that the fact of a man living in rural areas increases the likelihood of being allocated in farm work, however if he is white this probability decrease. Besides, the variables qualification and income have a negative relation with farm work allocation, being the Midwest region that contributed most for people being allocated in farm work.

Late Holocene climate variability in the southwestern Mediterranean region: an integrated marine and terrestrial geochemical approach

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C. Martín-Puertas

2010-12-01

Full Text Available A combination of marine (Alboran Sea cores, ODP 976 and TTR 300 G and terrestrial (Zoñar Lake, Andalucia, Spain geochemical proxies provides a high-resolution reconstruction of climate variability and human influence in the southwestern Mediterranean region for the last 4000 years at inter-centennial resolution. Proxies respond to changes in precipitation rather than temperature alone. Our combined terrestrial and marine archive documents a succession of dry and wet periods coherent with the North Atlantic climate signal. A dry period occurred prior to 2.7 cal ka BP – synchronously to the global aridity crisis of the third-millennium BC – and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1.4–0.7 cal ka BP. Wetter conditions prevailed from 2.7 to 1.4 cal ka BP. Hydrological signatures during the Little Ice Age are highly variable but consistent with more humidity than the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Additionally, Pb anomalies in sediments at the end of the Bronze Age suggest anthropogenic pollution earlier than the Roman Empire development in the Iberian Peninsula. The Late Holocene climate evolution of the in the study area confirms the see-saw pattern between the eastern and western Mediterranean regions and the higher influence of the North Atlantic dynamics in the western Mediterranean.

Sequence variability is correlated with weak immunogenicity in Streptococcus pyogenes M protein.

Science.gov (United States)

Lannergård, Jonas; Kristensen, Bodil M; Gustafsson, Mattias C U; Persson, Jenny J; Norrby-Teglund, Anna; Stålhammar-Carlemalm, Margaretha; Lindahl, Gunnar

2015-10-01

The M protein of Streptococcus pyogenes, a major bacterial virulence factor, has an amino-terminal hypervariable region (HVR) that is a target for type-specific protective antibodies. Intriguingly, the HVR elicits a weak antibody response, indicating that it escapes host immunity by two mechanisms, sequence variability and weak immunogenicity. However, the properties influencing the immunogenicity of regions in an M protein remain poorly understood. Here, we studied the antibody response to different regions of the classical M1 and M5 proteins, in which not only the HVR but also the adjacent fibrinogen-binding B repeat region exhibits extensive sequence divergence. Analysis of antisera from S. pyogenes-infected patients, infected mice, and immunized mice showed that both the HVR and the B repeat region elicited weak antibody responses, while the conserved carboxy-terminal part was immunodominant. Thus, we identified a correlation between sequence variability and weak immunogenicity for M protein regions. A potential explanation for the weak immunogenicity was provided by the demonstration that protease digestion selectively eliminated the HVR-B part from whole M protein-expressing bacteria. These data support a coherent model, in which the entire variable HVR-B part evades antibody attack, not only by sequence variability but also by weak immunogenicity resulting from protease attack. © 2015 The Authors. MicrobiologyOpen published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Euler deconvolution and spectral analysis of regional aeromagnetic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Existing regional aeromagnetic data from the south-central Zimbabwe craton has been analysed using 3D Euler deconvolution and spectral analysis to obtain quantitative information on the geological units and structures for depth constraints on the geotectonic interpretation of the region. The Euler solution maps confirm ...

Causality and cointegration analysis between macroeconomic variables and the Bovespa.

Science.gov (United States)

da Silva, Fabiano Mello; Coronel, Daniel Arruda; Vieira, Kelmara Mendes

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI), industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a total of 192 observations for each variable. Johansen tests, through the statistics of the trace and of the maximum eigenvalue, indicated the existence of at least one cointegration vector. In the analysis of Granger (1988) causality tests via error correction, it was found that a short-term causality existed between the CPI and the Bovespa. Regarding the Granger (1988) long-term causality, the results indicated a long-term behaviour among the macroeconomic variables with the BOVESPA. The results of the long-term normalized vector for the Bovespa variable showed that most signals of the cointegration equation parameters are in accordance with what is suggested by the economic theory. In other words, there was a positive behaviour of the GDP and a negative behaviour of the inflation and of the exchange rate (expected to be a positive relationship) in relation to the Bovespa, with the exception of the Selic rate, which was not significant with that index. The variance of the Bovespa was explained by itself in over 90% at the twelfth month, followed by the country risk, with less than 5%.

Features of ozone intraannual variability in polar regions based on ozone sounding data obtained at the Resolute and Amundsen-Scott stations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gruzdev, A.N.; Sitnov, S.A. (AN SSSR, Institut Fiziki Atmosfery, Moscow (USSR))

1991-04-01

Ozone sounding data obtained at the Resolute and Amundsen-Scott stations are used to analyze ozone intraannual variability in Southern and Northern polar regions. For the Arctic, in particular, features associated with winter stratospheric warmings, stratospheric-tropospheric exchange, and the isolated evolution of surface ozone are noted. Correlative connections between ozone and temperature making it possible to concretize ozone variability mechanisms are analyzed. 31 refs.

Application of correspondence analysis in the assessment of mine tailings dam breakage risk in the Mediterranean region.

Science.gov (United States)

Salgueiro, Ana Rita; Pereira, Henrique Garcia; Rico, Maria-Teresa; Benito, Gerado; Díez-Herreo, Andrés

2008-02-01

A new statistical approach for preliminary risk evaluation of breakage in tailings dam is presented and illustrated by a case study regarding the Mediterranean region. The objective of the proposed method is to establish an empirical scale of risk, from which guidelines for prioritizing the collection of further specific information can be derived. The method relies on a historical database containing, in essence, two sets of qualitative data: the first set concerns the variables that are observable before the disaster (e.g., type and size of the dam, its location, and state of activity), and the second refers to the consequences of the disaster (e.g., failure type, sludge characteristics, fatalities categorization, and downstream range of damage). Based on a modified form of correspondence analysis, where the second set of attributes are projected as "supplementary variables" onto the axes provided by the eigenvalue decomposition of the matrix referring to the first set, a "qualitative regression" is performed, relating the variables to be predicted (contained in the second set) with the "predictors" (the observable variables). On the grounds of the previously derived relationship, the risk of breakage in a new case can be evaluated, given observable variables. The method was applied in a case study regarding a set of 13 test sites where the ranking of risk obtained was validated by expert knowledge. Once validated, the procedure was included in the final output of the e-EcoRisk UE project (A Regional Enterprise Network Decision-Support System for Environmental Risk and Disaster Management of Large-Scale Industrial Spills), allowing for a dynamic historical database updating and providing a prompt rough risk evaluation for a new case. The aim of this section of the global project is to provide a quantified context where failure cases occurred in the past for supporting analogue reasoning in preventing similar situations.

CADDIS Volume 4. Data Analysis: Advanced Analyses - Controlling for Natural Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Methods for controlling natural variability, predicting environmental conditions from biological observations method, biological trait data, species sensitivity distributions, propensity scores, Advanced Analyses of Data Analysis references.

Omitted Variable Sensitivity Analysis with the Annotated Love Plot

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Ben B.; Fredrickson, Mark M.

2014-01-01

The goal of this research is to make sensitivity analysis accessible not only to empirical researchers but also to the various stakeholders for whom educational evaluations are conducted. To do this it derives anchors for the omitted variable (OV)-program participation association intrinsically, using the Love plot to present a wide range of…

Shape Analysis of HII Regions - I. Statistical Clustering

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell-White, Justyn; Froebrich, Dirk; Kume, Alfred

2018-04-01

We present here our shape analysis method for a sample of 76 Galactic HII regions from MAGPIS 1.4 GHz data. The main goal is to determine whether physical properties and initial conditions of massive star cluster formation is linked to the shape of the regions. We outline a systematic procedure for extracting region shapes and perform hierarchical clustering on the shape data. We identified six groups that categorise HII regions by common morphologies. We confirmed the validity of these groupings by bootstrap re-sampling and the ordinance technique multidimensional scaling. We then investigated associations between physical parameters and the assigned groups. Location is mostly independent of group, with a small preference for regions of similar longitudes to share common morphologies. The shapes are homogeneously distributed across Galactocentric distance and latitude. One group contains regions that are all younger than 0.5 Myr and ionised by low- to intermediate-mass sources. Those in another group are all driven by intermediate- to high-mass sources. One group was distinctly separated from the other five and contained regions at the surface brightness detection limit for the survey. We find that our hierarchical procedure is most sensitive to the spatial sampling resolution used, which is determined for each region from its distance. We discuss how these errors can be further quantified and reduced in future work by utilising synthetic observations from numerical simulations of HII regions. We also outline how this shape analysis has further applications to other diffuse astronomical objects.

Impacts of climate change, variability and adaptation strategies on ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Impacts of climate change, variability and adaptation strategies on agriculture in semi arid areas of Tanzania: The case of Manyoni District in Singida Region, Tanzania. ... The changes have affected crops and livestock in a number of ways resulting in reduced productivity. Empirical analysis of rainfall suggest decreasing ...

Analysis and Prediction of Micromilling Stability with Variable Tool Geometry

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Ziyang Cao

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Micromilling can fabricate miniaturized components using micro-end mill at high rotational speeds. The analysis of machining stability in micromilling plays an important role in characterizing the cutting process, estimating the tool life, and optimizing the process. A numerical analysis and experimental method are presented to investigate the chatter stability in micro-end milling process with variable milling tool geometry. The schematic model of micromilling process is constructed and the calculation formula to predict cutting force and displacements is derived. This is followed by a detailed numerical analysis on micromilling forces between helical ball and square end mills through time domain and frequency domain method and the results are compared. Furthermore, a detailed time domain simulation for micro end milling with straight teeth and helical teeth end mill is conducted based on the machine-tool system frequency response function obtained through modal experiment. The forces and displacements are predicted and the simulation result between variable cutter geometry is deeply compared. The simulation results have important significance for the actual milling process.

THE EVOLUTION OF ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION QUANTITY VARIABILITY BASED ON ESTIMATED CHANGES BY THE REGIONAL CLIMATIC MODELS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paula Furtună

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Climatic changes are representing one of the major challenges of our century, these being forcasted according to climate scenarios and models, which represent plausible and concrete images of future climatic conditions. The results of climate models comparison regarding future water resources and temperature regime trend can become a useful instrument for decision makers in choosing the most effective decisions regarding economic, social and ecologic levels. The aim of this article is the analysis of temperature and pluviometric variability at the closest grid point to Cluj-Napoca, based on data provided by six different regional climate models (RCMs. Analysed on 30 year periods (2001-2030,2031-2060 and 2061-2090, the mean temperature has an ascending general trend, with great varability between periods. The precipitation expressed trough percentage deviation shows a descending general trend, which is more emphazied during 2031-2060 and 2061-2090.

Approaches for modeling within subject variability in pharmacometric count data analysis: dynamic inter-occasion variability and stochastic differential equations.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Chenhui; Plan, Elodie L; Karlsson, Mats O

2016-06-01

Parameter variation in pharmacometric analysis studies can be characterized as within subject parameter variability (WSV) in pharmacometric models. WSV has previously been successfully modeled using inter-occasion variability (IOV), but also stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In this study, two approaches, dynamic inter-occasion variability (dIOV) and adapted stochastic differential equations, were proposed to investigate WSV in pharmacometric count data analysis. These approaches were applied to published count models for seizure counts and Likert pain scores. Both approaches improved the model fits significantly. In addition, stochastic simulation and estimation were used to explore further the capability of the two approaches to diagnose and improve models where existing WSV is not recognized. The results of simulations confirmed the gain in introducing WSV as dIOV and SDEs when parameters vary randomly over time. Further, the approaches were also informative as diagnostics of model misspecification, when parameters changed systematically over time but this was not recognized in the structural model. The proposed approaches in this study offer strategies to characterize WSV and are not restricted to count data.

Incorporation of gene-specific variability improves expression analysis using high-density DNA microarrays

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Spitznagel Edward

2003-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The assessment of data reproducibility is essential for application of microarray technology to exploration of biological pathways and disease states. Technical variability in data analysis largely depends on signal intensity. Within that context, the reproducibility of individual probe sets has not been hitherto addressed. Results We used an extraordinarily large replicate data set derived from human placental trophoblast to analyze probe-specific contribution to variability of gene expression. We found that signal variability, in addition to being signal-intensity dependant, is probe set-specific. Importantly, we developed a novel method to quantify the contribution of this probe set-specific variability. Furthermore, we devised a formula that incorporates a priori-computed, replicate-based information on probe set- and intensity-specific variability in determination of expression changes even without technical replicates. Conclusion The strategy of incorporating probe set-specific variability is superior to analysis based on arbitrary fold-change thresholds. We recommend its incorporation to any computation of gene expression changes using high-density DNA microarrays. A Java application implementing our T-score is available at http://www.sadovsky.wustl.edu/tscore.html.

gHRV: Heart rate variability analysis made easy.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Liñares, L; Lado, M J; Vila, X A; Méndez, A J; Cuesta, P

2014-08-01

In this paper, the gHRV software tool is presented. It is a simple, free and portable tool developed in python for analysing heart rate variability. It includes a graphical user interface and it can import files in multiple formats, analyse time intervals in the signal, test statistical significance and export the results. This paper also contains, as an example of use, a clinical analysis performed with the gHRV tool, namely to determine whether the heart rate variability indexes change across different stages of sleep. Results from tests completed by researchers who have tried gHRV are also explained: in general the application was positively valued and results reflect a high level of satisfaction. gHRV is in continuous development and new versions will include suggestions made by testers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Design Variables of Annular Linear Induction Electromagnetic Pump using an MHD Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kwak, Jae Sik; Kim, Hee Reyoung [Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

The generated force is affected by lots of factors including electrical input, hydrodynamic flow, geometrical shape, and so on. These factors, which are the design variables of an ALIP, should be suitably analyzed to optimally design an ALIP. Analysis on the developed pressure and efficiency of the ALIP according to the change of design variables is required for the ALIP satisfying requirements. In this study, the design variables of the ALIP are analyzed by using ideal MHD analysis model. Electromagnetic force and efficiency are derived by analyzing the main design variables such as pump core length, inner core diameter, flow gap and turns of coils. The developed pressure and efficiency of the ALIP were derived and analyzed on the change of the main variables such as pump core length, inner core diameter, flow gap, and turns of coils of the ALIP.

Variability analysis of AGN: a review of results using new statistical criteria

Science.gov (United States)

Zibecchi, L.; Andruchow, I.; Cellone, S. A.; Romero, G. E.; Combi, J. A.

We present here a re-analysis of the variability results of a sample of active galactic nuclei (AGN), which have been observed on several sessions with the 2.15 m "Jorge Sahade" telescope (CASLEO), San Juan, Argentina, and whose results are published (Romero et al. 1999, 2000, 2002; Cellone et al. 2000). The motivation for this new analysis is the implementation, dur- ing the last years, of improvements in the statistical criteria applied, taking quantitatively into account the incidence of the photometric errors (Cellone et al. 2007). This work is framed as a first step in an integral study on the statistical estimators of AGN variability. This study is motivated by the great diversity of statistical tests that have been proposed to analyze the variability of these objects. Since we note that, in some cases, the results of the object variability depend on the test used, we attempt to make a com- parative study of the various tests and analyze, under the given conditions, which of them is the most efficient and reliable.

Variation of reference evapotranspiration in the central region of Argentina between 1941 and 2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.C. de la Casa

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Study region: Changes in reference evapotranspiration (ETo may have important consequences for agricultural suitability in the central region of Argentina. Annual ETo variation was assessed, in terms of both territory and time, for the 7 decades between 1941 and 2010, analyzing the behavior of the 4 atmospheric variables which determine it: temperature, vapor pressure, wind speed and cloud cover. Study focus: The influence of each variable on ETo was evaluated from a multiple regression model and a simple correlation analysis, using climate data from the observation network, and repeating this analysis using interpolated variables. In this grid scheme, linear relationships were determined between ETo and the different key atmospheric variables, plus precipitation (PP, and the t test was applied to establish the statistically significant sectors (P 91% presents a non-significant variation of ETo over time, with a mostly non-significant change of each driving variable, regarding both its relationship with ETo and its own trend of change. The beneficial change in agricultural suitability reported for this water-limited region was found to be produced almost exclusively by increasing PP. Keywords: Reference evapotranspiration, Climate change, Climate variables, Precipitation

Sensitivity analysis on uncertainty variables affecting the NPP's LUEC with probabilistic approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nuryanti; Akhmad Hidayatno; Erlinda Muslim

2013-01-01

One thing that is quite crucial to be reviewed prior to any investment decision on the nuclear power plant (NPP) project is the calculation of project economic, including calculation of Levelized Unit Electricity Cost (LUEC). Infrastructure projects such as NPP’s project are vulnerable to a number of uncertainty variables. Information on the uncertainty variables which makes LUEC’s value quite sensitive due to the changes of them is necessary in order the cost overrun can be avoided. Therefore this study aimed to do the sensitivity analysis on variables that affect LUEC with probabilistic approaches. This analysis was done by using Monte Carlo technique that simulate the relationship between the uncertainty variables and visible impact on LUEC. The sensitivity analysis result shows the significant changes on LUEC value of AP1000 and OPR due to the sensitivity of investment cost and capacity factors. While LUEC changes due to sensitivity of U 3 O 8 ’s price looks not quite significant. (author)

Stratification of a cityscape using census and land use variables for inventory of building materials

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenfield, G.H.; Fitzpatrick-Lins, K.; Johnson, T.L.

1987-01-01

A cityscape (or any landscape) can be stratified into environmental units using multiple variables of information. For the purposes of sampling building materials, census and land use variables were used to identify similar strata. In the Metropolitan Statistical Area of a cityscape, the census tract is the smallest unit for which census data are summarized and digitized boundaries are available. For purposes of this analysis, census data on total population, total number of housing units, and number of singleunit dwellings were aggregated into variables of persons per square kilometer and proportion of housing units in single-unit dwellings. The level 2 categories of the U.S. Geological Survey's land use and land cover data base were aggregated into variables of proportion of residential land with buildings, proportion of nonresidential land with buildings, and proportion of open land. The cityscape was stratified, from these variables, into environmental strata of Urban Central Business District, Urban Livelihood Industrial Commercial, Urban Multi-Family Residential, Urban Single Family Residential, Non-Urban Suburbanizing, and Non-Urban Rural. The New England region was chosen as a region with commonality of building materials, and a procedure developed for trial classification of census tracts into one of the strata. Final stratification was performed by discriminant analysis using the trial classification and prior probabilities as weights. The procedure was applied to several cities, and the results analyzed by correlation analysis from a field sample of building materials. The methodology developed for stratification of a cityscape using multiple variables has application to many other types of environmental studies, including forest inventory, hydrologic unit management, waste disposal, transportation studies, and other urban studies. Multivariate analysis techniques have recently been used for urban stratification in England. ?? 1987 Annals of Regional

The influence of climate modes on streamflow in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Justin A. Schulte

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Study region: The Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Study focus: An understanding of past streamflow variability is necessary for developing future management practices that will help mitigate the impacts of extreme events such as drought or floods on agriculture and other human activities. To better understand mechanisms driving streamflow variability at all timescales, annual to multi-decadal streamflow variability of three major rivers in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States (the Susquehanna, Delaware, and Hudson Rivers was studied in the context of climate modes using correlation and wavelet analyses. New hydrological insights for the region: Results from the correlation analysis detected statistically significant relationships between climate indices and streamflow that were similar for the three rivers. The results from the wavelet analysis showed that 18- and 26-year periodicities were embedded in the streamflow time series. Decadal variability of streamflow was coherent with the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (SO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO. The time series for the PDO and SO indices and precipitation were found to be synchronized to the decadal variability of a global circulation pattern consisting of a Rossby wave train emanating from the North Pacific. The SO explained 37–54% of the 1960s drought, 33–49% of the 1970s pluvial, and 19–50% of the 2000s pluvial in the three river basins. Keywords: Streamflow, Climate, Climate variability, Wavelet analysis, El-Niño-Southern Oscillation, Mid-Atlantic region

Regional Branding: Building Brand Value

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Klára Margarisová

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Regional branding is one of several ways to promote rural regions and support development of socially, culturally and environmentally oriented economies in areas that are interesting due to their natural and cultural heritage. The article attempts to review the conceptual and theoretical underpinnings of branding as conveyed by leading authors in the marketing field. The aim of this paper is to define brand as a broad complex of variables, which are used in building of its identity as a basis for creating value proposition and the position of a brand. Article briefly describes the most comprehensive labeling system for regional products at the micro-regional level is the one guaranteed by Association of Regional Brands (ARB. The main contribution of this article is a theoretical model of strategic management of a regional brand, which captures the interdependence of the individual steps of brand building as well as stakeholders. The starting point for building of brand value is a strategic analysis of the brand, including analysis of customer and competitors. The analysis of external factors is followed by analysis of the brand itself. The resulting relationship between the brand and the customer is based on value proposition representing benefits (functional, emotional, self‑expression. The concept of total product is connected with the concept of total brand and it is offered to the customer as a regional product. Finally it suggests possibilities for further research.

Evolution of the genetic variability of eight French dairy cattle breeds assessed by pedigree analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Danchin-Burge, C; Leroy, G; Brochard, M; Moureaux, S; Verrier, E

2012-06-01

A pedigree analysis was performed on eight French dairy cattle breeds to assess their change in genetic variability since a first analysis completed in 1996. The Holstein, Normande and Montbéliarde breeds are selected internationally with over hundreds of thousands cows registered in the performance recording system. Three breeds are internationally selected but with limited numbers of cows in France (Brown Swiss, French Simmental and French Red Pied). The last two remaining breeds (Abondance and Tarentaise) are raised at regional level. The effective numbers of ancestors of cows born between 2004 and 2007 varied between 15 (Abondance and Tarentaise) and 51 (French Red Pied). The effective population sizes (classical approach) varied between 53 (Abondance) and 197 (French Red Pied). This article also compares the genetic variability of the ex situ (collections of the French National Cryobank) and in situ populations. The results were commented in regard to the recent history of gene flows in the different breeds as well as the existence of more or less stringent bottlenecks. Our results showed that whatever the size of the breeds, their genetic diversity impoverished quite rapidly since 1996 and they all could be considered as quite poor from a genetic diversity point of view. It shows the need for setting up cryobanks as gene reservoirs as well as sustainable breeding programmes that include loss of genetic diversity as an integrated control parameter. © 2011 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Geographical data structures supporting regional analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, R.G.; Durfee, R.C.

1978-01-01

In recent years the computer has become a valuable aid in solving regional environmental problems. Over a hundred different geographic information systems have been developed to digitize, store, analyze, and display spatially distributed data. One important aspect of these systems is the data structure (e.g. grids, polygons, segments) used to model the environment being studied. This paper presents eight common geographic data structures and their use in studies of coal resources, power plant siting, population distributions, LANDSAT imagery analysis, and landuse analysis

E-Business, the impact of regional growth on the improvement of Information and Communication Development

Science.gov (United States)

Setiawan, MI; Hasyim, C.; Kurniasih, N.; Abdullah, D.; Napitupulu, D.; Rahim, R.; Sukoco, A.; Dhaniarti, I.; Suyono, J.; Sudapet, IN; Nasihien, RD; Wulandari, DAR; Reswanda; Mudjanarko, SW; Sugeng; Wajdi, MBN

2018-04-01

ICT becomes a key element to improve industrial infrastructure efficiency and sustainable economic productivity. This study aims to analysis the impact of regional improvement on information and communication development in Indonesia. This research is a correlational study. Population of this research include 151 regions in Indonesia. By using a total sampling, there were 151 sample regions. The results show there are the strong impact of regional growth on increasing Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of information and communication. It can be seen from all regional improvement sub variables that have a high correlation in increasing GRDP of Information and Communication in Indonesia. Only two sub-variables that have low correlation to GRDP of Information and Communication variable i.e. GRDP of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (0.01) and GRDP of Mining and Quarrying (0.04). The correlation coefficient (R) is 0.981, means the variable of information and communication GRDP has a very strong correlation with regional growth variable. Thus the value of Adjusted R Square is 95.8%, means there are impact of regional growth variables in increasing GRDPof Information and Communication, while the increase of 4.2% of Information and Communication GRDP is influenced by other factors aside from regional improvement.

Real analysis foundations and functions of one variable

CERN Document Server

Laczkovich, Miklós

2015-01-01

Based on courses given at Eötvös Loránd University (Hungary) over the past 30 years, this introductory textbook develops the central concepts of the analysis of functions of one variable - systematically, with many examples and illustrations, and in a manner that builds upon, and sharpens, the students' mathematical intuition. The modular organization of the book makes it adaptable for either semester or year-long introductory courses, while the wealth of material allows for it to be used at various levels of student sophistication in all programs where analysis is a part of the curriculum, including teachers' education. In the spirit of learning-by-doing, Real Analysis includes more than 500 engaging exercises for the student keen on mastering the basics of analysis. There are frequent hints and occasional complete solutions provided for the more challenging exercises making it an ideal choice for independent study. The book includes a solid grounding in the basics of logic and proofs, sets, and real numb...

Regional Cerebral Blood Flow differences in early and severe Alzheimer Disease as assessed by SPECT and Principal Component Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pagani, M.M.E.; Sanchez-Creaspo, A.; Jonsson, C.; Engelin, L.; Danielsson, A.M.; Larsson, S.A.; Jacobsson, H.; Waegner, A.; Salmaso, D.

2002-01-01

Aim: In its development into severe Alzheimer's Disease (AD), early Alzheimer Disease (eAD) involves progressively larger regions of the brain. These regions share close anatomo-functional relationships. The aim of this study was to investigate the rCBF changes occurring in eAD and AD as compared to a group of normal individuals by means of SPECT and Principal Component Analysis. Materials and Methods. Thirty eAD, 17 AD and 66 normal controls (CTR) were included in the study. 99m Tc-HMPAO SPECT, using a three-headed gamma camera, was performed at rest and the uptake in 27 functional bilateral sub-volumes of the brain was assessed by a standardised digitalised brain atlas. Data were grouped into anatomo-functionally connected regions by means of PCA analysis performed on all 113 individuals. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to test the significance of the differences in flow in such functional regions and data were co-variated for age differences. Results. In the global analysis, rCBF significantly differed between groups (0.001) with a progressive reduction of flow from CTR to AD. PCA reduced the 54 variables to 11 anatomo-functional regions that interacted with groups (p<0.001) and gender (p<0.001). In the overall analysis the three groups differed significantly in all functional regions except for bilateral occipital cortex, anterior cingulated cortex, thalamus and putamen. In both CTR/eAD and CTR/AD comparisons the largest rCBF reductions were found in functional regions including left (p<0.0001) and right (p<0.0001) temporo-parietal cortex and associative parietal cortex (p<0.0001). When eAD was compared to AD, this latter showed the largest reductions in right temporo-parietal cortex (p<0.0001) and in right prefrontal cortex (p<0.005). Conclusions. In this study the rCBF was investigated in early and severe Alzheimer's Disease taking into account the functional connectivity among brain regions. Our results confirm previous findings on the progression of

Collaborative Proposal: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maslowski, Wieslaw [Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA (United States). Dept. of Oceanography; Cassano, John J. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Gutowski, Jr., William J. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Lipscomb, William H. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Nijssen, Bart [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Roberts, Andrew [Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA (United States). Dept. of Oceanography; Robertson, William [Univ. of Texas, El Paso, TX (United States); Tulaczyk, Slawek [Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States); Zeng, Xubin [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)

2011-05-15

The primary outcome of the project was the development of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) and evaluation of its individual model components, coupling among them and fully coupled model results. Overall, we have demonstrated that RASM produces realistic mean and seasonal surface climate as well as its interannual and decadal variability and trends.

Temporal and spatial variability of frost-free seasons in the Great Lakes region of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; Jeffrey A. Andresen

2014-01-01

The frequency and timing of frost events and the length of the growing season are critical limiting factors in many human and natural ecosystems. This study investigates the temporal and spatial variability of the date of last spring frost (LSF), the date of first fall frost (FFF), and the length of the frost-free season (FFS) in the Great Lakes region of the United...

Collaborative Proposal: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maslowski, Wieslaw [Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA (United States)

2016-10-17

This project aims to develop, apply and evaluate a regional Arctic System model (RASM) for enhanced decadal predictions. Its overarching goal is to advance understanding of the past and present states of arctic climate and to facilitate improvements in seasonal to decadal predictions. In particular, it will focus on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The project will also address modes of natural climate variability as well as extreme and rapid climate change in a region of the Earth that is: (i) a key indicator of the state of global climate through polar amplification and (ii) which is undergoing environmental transitions not seen in instrumental records. RASM will readily allow the addition of other earth system components, such as ecosystem or biochemistry models, thus allowing it to facilitate studies of climate impacts (e.g., droughts and fires) and of ecosystem adaptations to these impacts. As such, RASM is expected to become a foundation for more complete Arctic System models and part of a model hierarchy important for improving climate modeling and predictions.

Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Fyke

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Annually averaged precipitation in the form of snow, the dominant term of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance, displays large spatial and temporal variability. Here we present an analysis of spatial patterns of regional Antarctic precipitation variability and their impact on integrated Antarctic surface mass balance variability simulated as part of a preindustrial 1800-year global, fully coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. Correlation and composite analyses based on this output allow for a robust exploration of Antarctic precipitation variability. We identify statistically significant relationships between precipitation patterns across Antarctica that are corroborated by climate reanalyses, regional modeling and ice core records. These patterns are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, which itself is characterized by decadal- to centennial-scale oscillations around the long-term mean. We suggest that this heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation variability has a dampening effect on overall Antarctic surface mass balance variability, with implications for regulation of Antarctic-sourced sea level variability, detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends and identification of Antarctic mass loss accelerations.

Standardizing effect size from linear regression models with log-transformed variables for meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Barranco, Miguel; Tobías, Aurelio; Redondo, Daniel; Molina-Portillo, Elena; Sánchez, María José

2017-03-17

Meta-analysis is very useful to summarize the effect of a treatment or a risk factor for a given disease. Often studies report results based on log-transformed variables in order to achieve the principal assumptions of a linear regression model. If this is the case for some, but not all studies, the effects need to be homogenized. We derived a set of formulae to transform absolute changes into relative ones, and vice versa, to allow including all results in a meta-analysis. We applied our procedure to all possible combinations of log-transformed independent or dependent variables. We also evaluated it in a simulation based on two variables either normally or asymmetrically distributed. In all the scenarios, and based on different change criteria, the effect size estimated by the derived set of formulae was equivalent to the real effect size. To avoid biased estimates of the effect, this procedure should be used with caution in the case of independent variables with asymmetric distributions that significantly differ from the normal distribution. We illustrate an application of this procedure by an application to a meta-analysis on the potential effects on neurodevelopment in children exposed to arsenic and manganese. The procedure proposed has been shown to be valid and capable of expressing the effect size of a linear regression model based on different change criteria in the variables. Homogenizing the results from different studies beforehand allows them to be combined in a meta-analysis, independently of whether the transformations had been performed on the dependent and/or independent variables.

Regional analysis of the nuclear-electricity; Analisis regional de la nucleoelectricidad

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parera, M. D., E-mail: dparera@cnea.gov.ar [CNEA, Gerencia de Planificacion, Coordinacion y Control, Subgerencia de Planificacion Estrategica, Av. Gral. Paz 1499, B1650KNA San Martin, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

2011-11-15

In this study was realized a regional analysis of the Argentinean electric market contemplating the effects of regional cooperation, the internal and international interconnections; and the possibilities of insert of new nuclear power stations were evaluated in different regions of the country, indicating the most appropriate areas to carry out these facilities to increase the penetration of the nuclear energy in the national energy matrix. Also was studied the interconnection of the electricity and natural gas markets, due to the existent linking among both energy forms. With this purpose the program Message (Model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impacts) was used, promoted by the International Atomic Energy Agency. This model carries out an economic optimization level country, obtaining the minimum cost as a result for the modeling system. The division for regions realized by the Compania Administradora del Mercado Mayorista Electrico (CAMMESA) was used, which divides to the country in eight regions. They were considered the characteristics and necessities of each one of them, their respective demands and offers of electric power and natural gas, as well as their existent and projected interconnections, composed by the electric lines and gas pipes. According to the results obtained through the model, the nuclear-electricity is a competitive option. (Author)

Parameters of Regional Cooperative Behavior in the German Biotech Industry – A Quantitative Social Network Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mitze, Timo; Strotebeck, Falk

We analyse the determinants of network formation in Germany’s biotechnology industry using social network analysis combined with a regression approach for count data. Outcome variable of interest is the degree centrality of German regions, which is specified as a function of the region’s innovative...... and economic performance as well as biotech-related policy variables. The inclusion of the latter allows us to shed new light on the question to what extent R&D-based cluster policies are able to impact on the formation of the German biotech network. Our results show that policy indicators such as the volume...... of public funding for collaborative R&D activity are positively correlated with the region’s overall and interregional degree centrality. However, besides this direct funding effect, we do not observe any further (non-pecuniary) advantages such as prestige or image effects. Regarding the role played...

Multi-scaling allometric analysis for urban and regional development

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yanguang

2017-01-01

The concept of allometric growth is based on scaling relations, and it has been applied to urban and regional analysis for a long time. However, most allometric analyses were devoted to the single proportional relation between two elements of a geographical system. Few researches focus on the allometric scaling of multielements. In this paper, a process of multiscaling allometric analysis is developed for the studies on spatio-temporal evolution of complex systems. By means of linear algebra, general system theory, and by analogy with the analytical hierarchy process, the concepts of allometric growth can be integrated with the ideas from fractal dimension. Thus a new methodology of geo-spatial analysis and the related theoretical models emerge. Based on the least squares regression and matrix operations, a simple algorithm is proposed to solve the multiscaling allometric equation. Applying the analytical method of multielement allometry to Chinese cities and regions yields satisfying results. A conclusion is reached that the multiscaling allometric analysis can be employed to make a comprehensive evaluation for the relative levels of urban and regional development, and explain spatial heterogeneity. The notion of multiscaling allometry may enrich the current theory and methodology of spatial analyses of urban and regional evolution.

Variabilidade local e regional da evapotranspiração estimada pelo algoritmo SEBAL Local and regional variability of evapotranspiration estimated by SEBAL algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis C. J. Moreira

2010-12-01

balance. The hourly evapotranspiration values obtained were greater than 0.60 mm h-1 in irrigated or dense native vegetation areas, from 0.35 to 0.60 mm h-1 in sparse vegetation areas and almost null in degradated areas. The analysis of hourly evapotranspiration means by Tukey test at 5% probability level showed not only a significant variability locally but also at a regional scale in the state of Ceará.

Multiresponse semiparametric regression for modelling the effect of regional socio-economic variables on the use of information technology

Science.gov (United States)

Wibowo, Wahyu; Wene, Chatrien; Budiantara, I. Nyoman; Permatasari, Erma Oktania

2017-03-01

Multiresponse semiparametric regression is simultaneous equation regression model and fusion of parametric and nonparametric model. The regression model comprise several models and each model has two components, parametric and nonparametric. The used model has linear function as parametric and polynomial truncated spline as nonparametric component. The model can handle both linearity and nonlinearity relationship between response and the sets of predictor variables. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of the regression model for modeling of effect of regional socio-economic on use of information technology. More specific, the response variables are percentage of households has access to internet and percentage of households has personal computer. Then, predictor variables are percentage of literacy people, percentage of electrification and percentage of economic growth. Based on identification of the relationship between response and predictor variable, economic growth is treated as nonparametric predictor and the others are parametric predictors. The result shows that the multiresponse semiparametric regression can be applied well as indicate by the high coefficient determination, 90 percent.

Causality and cointegration analysis between macroeconomic variables and the Bovespa.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabiano Mello da Silva

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI, industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa. The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a total of 192 observations for each variable. Johansen tests, through the statistics of the trace and of the maximum eigenvalue, indicated the existence of at least one cointegration vector. In the analysis of Granger (1988 causality tests via error correction, it was found that a short-term causality existed between the CPI and the Bovespa. Regarding the Granger (1988 long-term causality, the results indicated a long-term behaviour among the macroeconomic variables with the BOVESPA. The results of the long-term normalized vector for the Bovespa variable showed that most signals of the cointegration equation parameters are in accordance with what is suggested by the economic theory. In other words, there was a positive behaviour of the GDP and a negative behaviour of the inflation and of the exchange rate (expected to be a positive relationship in relation to the Bovespa, with the exception of the Selic rate, which was not significant with that index. The variance of the Bovespa was explained by itself in over 90% at the twelfth month, followed by the country risk, with less than 5%.

Impact of catchment geophysical characteristics and climate on the regional variability of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in surface water.

Science.gov (United States)

Cool, Geneviève; Lebel, Alexandre; Sadiq, Rehan; Rodriguez, Manuel J

2014-08-15

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a recognized indicator of natural organic matter (NOM) in surface waters. The aim of this paper is twofold: to evaluate the impact of geophysical characteristics, climate and ecological zones on DOC concentrations in surface waters and, to develop a statistical model to estimate the regional variability of these concentrations. In this study, multilevel statistical analysis was used to achieve three specific objectives: (1) evaluate the influence of climate and geophysical characteristics on DOC concentrations in surface waters; (2) compare the influence of geophysical characteristics and ecological zones on DOC concentrations in surface waters; and (3) develop a model to estimate the most accurate DOC concentrations in surface waters. The case study involved 115 catchments from surface waters in the Province of Quebec, Canada. Results showed that mean temperatures recorded 60 days prior to sampling, total precipitation 10 days prior to sampling and percentages of wetlands, coniferous forests and mixed forests have a significant positive influence on DOC concentrations in surface waters. The catchment mean slope had a significant negative influence on DOC concentrations in surface waters. Water type (lake or river) and deciduous forest variables were not significant. The ecological zones had a significant influence on DOC concentrations. However, geophysical characteristics (wetlands, forests and slope) estimated DOC concentrations more accurately. A model describing the variability of DOC concentrations was developed and can be used, in future research, for estimating DBPs in drinking water as well evaluating the impact of climate change on the quality of surface waters and drinking water. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian variable selection for post-analytic interrogation of susceptibility loci.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Siying; Nunez, Sara; Reilly, Muredach P; Foulkes, Andrea S

2017-06-01

Understanding the complex interplay among protein coding genes and regulatory elements requires rigorous interrogation with analytic tools designed for discerning the relative contributions of overlapping genomic regions. To this aim, we offer a novel application of Bayesian variable selection (BVS) for classifying genomic class level associations using existing large meta-analysis summary level resources. This approach is applied using the expectation maximization variable selection (EMVS) algorithm to typed and imputed SNPs across 502 protein coding genes (PCGs) and 220 long intergenic non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) that overlap 45 known loci for coronary artery disease (CAD) using publicly available Global Lipids Gentics Consortium (GLGC) (Teslovich et al., 2010; Willer et al., 2013) meta-analysis summary statistics for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). The analysis reveals 33 PCGs and three lncRNAs across 11 loci with >50% posterior probabilities for inclusion in an additive model of association. The findings are consistent with previous reports, while providing some new insight into the architecture of LDL-cholesterol to be investigated further. As genomic taxonomies continue to evolve, additional classes such as enhancer elements and splicing regions, can easily be layered into the proposed analysis framework. Moreover, application of this approach to alternative publicly available meta-analysis resources, or more generally as a post-analytic strategy to further interrogate regions that are identified through single point analysis, is straightforward. All coding examples are implemented in R version 3.2.1 and provided as supplemental material. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

ESA STSE Project “Sea Surface Temperature Diurnal Variability: Regional Extend – Implications in Atmospheric Modelling”

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karagali, Ioanna

of the vertical extend of diurnal signals. Drifting buoys provide measurements close to the surface but are not always available. Moored buoys are generally not able to resolve the daily SST signal, which strongly weakens with depth within the upper water column. For such reasons, the General Ocean Turbulence......, atmospheric and oceanic modelling, bio-chemical processes and oceanic CO2 studies. The diurnal variability of SST, driven by the coincident occurrence of low enough wind and solar heating, is currently not properly understood. Atmospheric, oceanic and climate models are currently not adequately resolving...... the daily SST variability, resulting in biases of the total heat budget estimates and therefore, demised model accuracies. The ESA STSE funded project SSTDV:R.EX.-IM.A.M. aimed at characterising the regional extend of diurnal SST signals and their impact in atmospheric modelling. This study will briefly...

Spatial Data Envelopment Analysis Method for the Evaluation of Regional Infrastructure Disparities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Birutė Galinienė

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose—to achieve a more detailed assessment of regional differences, exploring regional infrastructure and human capital usage efficiency and to display analysis capabilities of spatial data efficient frontier method.Design/methodology/approach—the data envelopment analysis (DEA is applied to find the efficient frontier, which extends the application of production function of the regions. This method of mathematical programming optimization allows assessing the effectiveness of the regional spatial aspects presented. In recent studies this method is applied for evaluating the European Union regional policy issues.Findings—the application of DEA reveals its feasibility for regional input and output studies to evaluate more detailed and more reasonable fund allocation between Lithuanian regions. This analysis shows that in the comparatively efficient Lithuanian regions, such as Vilnius and Klaipėda, “the bottleneck” of usage of transport infrastructure and regional specific human capital is reached. It is stated that decision-making units could enhance region attractiveness for private investors by improving indirect factors in these regions. For practical significance of the study the results are compared with German regional analysis, conducted by Schaffer and other researchers (2011.Practical implications—the practical value of this work is based on giving more accurate planning tools for fund allocation decisions in Lithuanian regions while planning infrastructure and human capital development. The regional indicators were analyzed for 2010.Research type—case study.